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# ![@gave_vincent Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1549074816442830848.png) @gave_vincent Louis-Vincent Gave

Louis-Vincent Gave posts on X about china, in the, if you, the world the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1549074816442830848/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1549074816442830848/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +294%
- [--] Month [-------] -47%
- [--] Months [----------] -36%
- [--] Year [----------] +23%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1549074816442830848/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1549074816442830848/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -14%
- [--] Month [--] +7.10%
- [--] Months [--] no change
- [--] Year [---] -43%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1549074816442830848/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1549074816442830848/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +0.41%
- [--] Month [------] +2.70%
- [--] Months [------] +23%
- [--] Year [------] +63%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1549074816442830848/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1549074816442830848/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[countries](/list/countries)  37.62% [finance](/list/finance)  25.74% [currencies](/list/currencies)  10.89% [stocks](/list/stocks)  3.96% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  2.97% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  2.97% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  2.97% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  1.98% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  0.99% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  0.99%

**Social topic influence**
[china](/topic/china) 26.73%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 11.88%, [if you](/topic/if-you) 6.93%, [the world](/topic/the-world) 5.94%, [the most](/topic/the-most) 5.94%, [this is](/topic/this-is) 4.95%, [ceo](/topic/ceo) 3.96%, [gold](/topic/gold) 3.96%, [stocks](/topic/stocks) 3.96%, [investment](/topic/investment) 3.96%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@gavevincent](/creator/undefined) [@gavekal](/creator/undefined) [@radigancarter](/creator/undefined) [@benbrey](/creator/undefined) [@harveybsmith_](/creator/undefined) [@erikstownsend](/creator/undefined) [@patrickceresna](/creator/undefined) [@hkuppy](/creator/undefined) [@rnaudbertrand](/creator/undefined) [@vincentdeluard](/creator/undefined) [@squirrelmacro](/creator/undefined) [@imetatronink](/creator/undefined) [@oracleofmusk](/creator/undefined) [@larrainvial](/creator/undefined) [@wealthion](/creator/undefined) [@jamesconnor1999](/creator/undefined) [@pboockvar](/creator/undefined) [@notsellingearly](/creator/undefined) [@aberzimbabwe](/creator/undefined) [@nakedhedgie](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Dear squirrel Dear Ben Thanks for having me on. I really had a great time participating in this conversation. Lots of laugh and perhaps a little too much cursing (by me) I also feel bad that I didnt really let you guys speak very much But thanks for having me on Warning to EM bulls - this may not be great for your (our) biases A fun hour with @gave_vincent and @BenBrey https://t.co/ywDZEkkIZm https://t.co/n9FqMpbyCe Warning to EM bulls - this may not be great for your (our) biases A fun hour with @gave_vincent and @BenBrey https://t.co/ywDZEkkIZm https://t.co/n9FqMpbyCe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/2022132228667662429)  2026-02-13T02:14Z 35.3K followers, [----] engagements


"These past few weeks have been momentous: - The Biden pre-emptive pardons made a mockery of the rule of law - The Trump Greenland/Canada/Panama tirades blew up the belief that the US is a kind and accidental hegemon - The threat of seizure of Colombias assets re-enforced what was already known: that US assets are safe depending on who owns them which passport the owners hold and whether that country is not in the crosshairs of the US state department. - Deepseek undermined the belief in US tech supremacy and unassailable moats"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1883808945783075283)  2025-01-27T09:27Z 35.3K followers, 375.9K engagements


"One of Gavekals key themes this year has been the rebuild of Fort Monroe; a US that refocuses its foreign and economic policies towards Latam. This we argued would be very bullish Latam debt and equity markets. But after an impressive performance in [----] for the regions debt markets is the trade done Last week I caught up with my friend Alexandre Larrain of @larrainvial to discuss this very issue. As we both see it momentum in the trade is strong valuations of both bonds and currencies remain attractive and [----] could witness a number of positive political catalysts. Our conversation is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1989661106181145047)  2025-11-15T11:45Z 35.3K followers, 45.3K engagements


"Thanks so much for having me on I really enjoyed our chat Latest pod features Louis Gave @gave_vincent the CEO of Gavekal @Gavekal. Louis presents a strong case that China long a deflationary factor is turning. He calls the renminbi the worlds most wrong asset price far too weak in the context of macro fundamentals. As the Latest pod features Louis Gave @gave_vincent the CEO of Gavekal @Gavekal. Louis presents a strong case that China long a deflationary factor is turning. He calls the renminbi the worlds most wrong asset price far too weak in the context of macro fundamentals. As the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/2019127503001124989)  2026-02-04T19:14Z 35.3K followers, 17.7K engagements


"Good news: the Dow Jones is back below [-----]. So the US DoJ can start prosecuting pedophiles now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/2021991503158297053)  2026-02-12T16:55Z 35.3K followers, 60.4K engagements


"And btw squirrel and ben am not sure its really fair for you to use your high school yearbook pictures while I am made to look more or less my age Warning to EM bulls - this may not be great for your (our) biases A fun hour with @gave_vincent and @BenBrey https://t.co/ywDZEkkIZm https://t.co/n9FqMpbyCe Warning to EM bulls - this may not be great for your (our) biases A fun hour with @gave_vincent and @BenBrey https://t.co/ywDZEkkIZm https://t.co/n9FqMpbyCe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/2022133004706165170)  2026-02-13T02:17Z 35.3K followers, 12K engagements


"Thanks for having me on @wealthion Enjoyed our conversation Is U.S. dominance fading Louis-Vincent Gave breaks down the dollars decline Chinas rise & flawed economic data. πŸ“Ί Watch now: https://t.co/URPveRhnsa @gave_vincent @JamesConnor1999 #DollarDecline #ChinaEconomy #Macroeconomics #Inflation #EmergingMarkets #Gold #Investing https://t.co/2CemxprvHQ Is U.S. dominance fading Louis-Vincent Gave breaks down the dollars decline Chinas rise & flawed economic data. πŸ“Ί Watch now: https://t.co/URPveRhnsa @gave_vincent @JamesConnor1999 #DollarDecline #ChinaEconomy #Macroeconomics #Inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953286776572743993)  2025-08-07T02:47Z 35.3K followers, 21.7K engagements


"Happy Assumption Day. My parents on the way to mass in Provence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956415922601971979)  2025-08-15T18:01Z 35.3K followers, 11.5K engagements


"Thanks for having me on @ErikSTownsend and @PatrickCeresna - always enjoy our catch-ups. MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend & @PatrickCeresna welcome Louis-Vincent Gave @gave_vincent. They'll discuss his long-term perspective on Chinas role in the global economy highlighting both its extraordinary infrastructure ambitions and the challenges of securing foreign capital https://t.co/PwNeMc4Xl8 MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend & @PatrickCeresna welcome Louis-Vincent Gave @gave_vincent. They'll discuss his long-term perspective on Chinas role in the global economy highlighting both its extraordinary"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1961259672427794929)  2025-08-29T02:48Z 35.3K followers, 47.8K engagements


"With @hkuppy at the @gavekal global (HK) headquarters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1983910232943112213)  2025-10-30T14:53Z 35.3K followers, 52.3K engagements


"We just published a terrific guest piece from my friend Weijian Shan. I think it is a must read for anyone looking to understand Chinas advances in manufacturing. The piece has no firewall and is open to everyone. Incidentally Weijian Shan wrote one of my favourite books; a book I had all four of my kids read. The book OUT OF THE GOBI details his growing up at the time of the cultural revolution. Hard to understand China today without understanding what the current generation of leaders went through in the late 1960s/early 1970s Please forward widely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1986408678610632857)  2025-11-06T12:21Z 35.3K followers, 403.9K engagements


"Yes. It does. Out of the USD 800bn or so that the US spends on defense roughly USD 300bn goes to veterans affairs. This is slated to rise to usd 418bn by [----]. So a lot of the US military spending is what would be in other countries considered social spending (medical benefits pensions). Incidentally this means that cutting US defense budgets is much tougher than would appear at first glance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1725224081962774625)  2023-11-16T18:47Z 30.6K followers, [----] engagements


"A great question. Will the digital RMB gradually replace the HKD in daily transactions If so the HKMA will have USD 430bn or so needing a new purpose Create a Temesek/Adia like institution At the very least no need for massive UST holdings (to defend the peg) anymore. Capital could then be used elsewhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1793300282287484979)  2024-05-22T15:17Z 31.3K followers, [---] engagements


"Chinas unfolding consumer deflationary boom in one chart. I guess it explains how Chinese equities could lose two thirds of their value real estate lose between a quarter and a third of its value and domestic auto sales still make new highs. 21st Century Fordism indeed. Over the 16-year period since [----] the number of years it takes for an average Chinese manufacturing worker to afford a basic plug-in EV has fallen from [--] years to [--]. This is while the technical/performance specs have increased dramatically. https://t.co/1K5VfkU6JY 21st Century Fordism indeed. Over the 16-year period since"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1797864193565331826)  2024-06-04T05:33Z 33.4K followers, 32.3K engagements


"Canada announces tariffs on US beers. Be honest: who had Trudeau signing up for the Bud-Light boycott on their [----] bingo cards https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/02/canada-announces-155b-tariff-package-in-response-to-unjustified-us-tariffs.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/02/canada-announces-155b-tariff-package-in-response-to-unjustified-us-tariffs.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1886008542500647017)  2025-02-02T11:07Z 21.9K followers, [----] engagements


"I subscribe to Baiguan and I recommend it to anyone interested in China. Robert writes about culture social and economic issues and political developments in an easy going prose. Its a great way to keep tabs on China. Strong recommend Yesterday at Baiguan's paying-subscriber Discord community there was a discussion about India and China from which I learned so much from. An Indian businessman with biz interests in both India and China shared some incredible insights on India-China relations innovation https://t.co/fKtr9azMZr Yesterday at Baiguan's paying-subscriber Discord community there was"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1889725502379761715)  2025-02-12T17:17Z 21.7K followers, 11.6K engagements


"I always recommend Out of the Gobi by Weijian Shan to anyone who wants to understand the formative experience of the current generation of Chinese leaders. Jonathan Spences The Search for Modern China is I believe the most comprehensive book to understand the past [---] years of Chinese History. Just started The Great Transformation. A new book about turning the page on the Mao years. So far it seems promising"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1889771285011636247)  2025-02-12T20:19Z 21.7K followers, [---] engagements


"One of my more recent pieces Global markets are experiencing rapid shifts driven by political economic and technological changes. Read more here: https://t.co/SvEPI31zYu Global markets are experiencing rapid shifts driven by political economic and technological changes. Read more here: https://t.co/SvEPI31zYu"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1890228771833409658)  2025-02-14T02:37Z 21.7K followers, 11.6K engagements


"Of all the battles the US might pick with China why choose the HKD Essentially the US would be telling China we are tired of the HKMA buying so many US Treasuries. Make them stop Why would you think this likely As for China what does China gain by breaking the HKD peg Who wins what by picking a fight over the HKD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1890354220014141848)  2025-02-14T10:55Z 21.6K followers, [--] engagements


"Great piece πŸ‘‡ As the cries of USA USA continue to echo from the trading floors of Lower Manhattan those uninvestable Chinese equities have started [----] with intent to leave American Exceptionalism in their wake for a second year in a row. Hot for Hot Pot https://t.co/NxtTlv25Rz As the cries of USA USA continue to echo from the trading floors of Lower Manhattan those uninvestable Chinese equities have started [----] with intent to leave American Exceptionalism in their wake for a second year in a row. Hot for Hot Pot https://t.co/NxtTlv25Rz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1891746877697073245)  2025-02-18T07:09Z 21.9K followers, 10.2K engagements


"Thanks for the plug (and for the very kind words) @radigancarter - glad you liked the book And yes: we all need more hobbies. If you are interested in managing your own investments would recommend reading Charles Gave's new book The General Theory of Portfolio Construction. Charles has generously made it available for free download or you can pay a few dollars for a hard copy to take notes in like https://t.co/Q8qKHVJP6K If you are interested in managing your own investments would recommend reading Charles Gave's new book The General Theory of Portfolio Construction. Charles has generously"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1892963149848178917)  2025-02-21T15:42Z 33.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Thanks for having me on. I had a lot of fun The West has been leapfrogged by China and the only way to compete is by making better products🏭🌏 πŸŽ™ @gave_vincent joined the latest podcast with Dan & @pboockvar https://t.co/dqPdoGRFbS The West has been leapfrogged by China and the only way to compete is by making better products🏭🌏 πŸŽ™ @gave_vincent joined the latest podcast with Dan & @pboockvar https://t.co/dqPdoGRFbS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1970869953256681510)  2025-09-24T15:16Z 30.2K followers, 15.9K engagements


"Unless I am mistaken this is a first #1 ranking for Duke. Proud dad moment The Rankings are IN πŸ“Š The nations coaches have cast their votes see who made the cut in this weeks Top [--] Mens Rugby Rankings. πŸ‘€ Drop your thoughts below #NCR #NationalCollegiateRugby https://t.co/LGA8GtYRNI The Rankings are IN πŸ“Š The nations coaches have cast their votes see who made the cut in this weeks Top [--] Mens Rugby Rankings. πŸ‘€ Drop your thoughts below #NCR #NationalCollegiateRugby https://t.co/LGA8GtYRNI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1973532078332584416)  2025-10-01T23:34Z 30K followers, 15.1K engagements


"@notsellingearly @aberzimbabwe @NakedHedgie Another quote I like is that you dont stop playing because you are getting old. You get old because youve stopped playing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1981055382278853067)  2025-10-22T17:49Z 30.1K followers, [--] engagements


"@buxmd9999 @jsblokland HK is going down that path. I think its highly unlikely on the Mainland. At least for now. Beijing will look at what happens in HK and then weigh the positives against the negatives. But nothing will happen on Mainland re: stablecoins in the short term"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1988238907276726692)  2025-11-11T13:34Z 31.1K followers, [--] engagements


"Thanks for having me on @erik_ywr. I really enjoyed our macro misfits weekend in HK and Shenzhen and getting a chance to re-ash the main China takeaways on this call was a treat. Still I felt you left out the most important. Specifically: - your dancing at Madame Fu restaurant - how you (along with Jamie and Steven) were last men standing on Halloween night in LKF So kudos to you Chinese stocks in [----] are like the S&P [---] in [----]. My takeaway from a great talk with @gave_vincent https://t.co/0RMvk6eCe8 Chinese stocks in [----] are like the S&P [---] in [----]. My takeaway from a great talk with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1991978149362458666)  2025-11-21T21:12Z 31.7K followers, 26.5K engagements


"Thanks for the below @RnaudBertrand I too thought that Weijian Shans paper was eye opening on so many fronts. I am glad he allowed us to publish it and share with a wider audience I finally got a chance to read this fascinating paper on productivity in China by Weijian Shan a man who's had an incredible life starting as a Cultural Revolution worker in the Gobi desert to today one of the world's most respected investors. One statistic blew my mind. In I finally got a chance to read this fascinating paper on productivity in China by Weijian Shan a man who's had an incredible life starting as a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1992063135428354303)  2025-11-22T02:50Z 31.8K followers, 44.6K engagements


"What China wants to buy (ie: semis) the US wont sell or cant produce fast enough (ie planes) What the US wants to buy (ie rare earths and magnets for missiles) China now wont sell What the US wants to sell (ie: LNG soybeans) China can typically get cheaper elsewhere (ie: Russia) What China now wants to sell (ie: cars turbines nuclear power plants high speed rail) the US wont buy (which might well create long term competitiveness issues) Surely our wise leaders could come up with a better system"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1994070055374737529)  2025-11-27T15:45Z 31.8K followers, 13.3K engagements


"Everyone focuses on whether the Fed will cut 25bp or not in December Meanwhile in Brazil rate cuts over the coming year might be 200bp 300bp or 400bp Brazil is where the juice is Give my friend @alex_larrain_ a follow if you have any interest in Latam debt markets. Or Latam in general A stronger rate cutting scenario is being priced-in in Brazil with DI swap rates down 40bps in a month. The market is pricing inflation convergence as well as higher odds of political chance next year. 300bps priced in is still too little. Look for [---]. DTMIDWY https://t.co/fsadGWiB9h A stronger rate cutting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1994118866264576345)  2025-11-27T18:59Z 32.6K followers, 53.1K engagements


"πŸ‘‡ Trump (and Wall Street consensus) to the Japanese government: "You are going to fund a big portion of the reshoring and rebuilding of the US industrial base and electrical grid." JGB market to the Japanese government: https://t.co/1ZPIV0MLGz Trump (and Wall Street consensus) to the Japanese government: "You are going to fund a big portion of the reshoring and rebuilding of the US industrial base and electrical grid." JGB market to the Japanese government: https://t.co/1ZPIV0MLGz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1995962706160218115)  2025-12-02T21:06Z 32.6K followers, 24.2K engagements


"My latest piece on the evolution of the US-China relationship. Nothing in there that I have not said in podcasts and written in various reports over the years. Including the jokes. But its a quick read Anyway this piece is unlocked. Constructive feedback welcomed https://research.gavekal.com/article/us-exceptionalism-versus-chinese-uninvestibility-part-i/ https://research.gavekal.com/article/us-exceptionalism-versus-chinese-uninvestibility-part-i/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1998441208839024779)  2025-12-09T17:14Z 34.4K followers, 201.8K engagements


"@briangobosox Maybe you missed the part where the Raytheon and Ford CEOs say that without Chinese magnets and rate earths they have to shut down production"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1998477371503218952)  2025-12-09T19:38Z 33K followers, [----] engagements


"@svanerkel My favorite cities are HK Shanghai Beijing and Chengdu. Xian has a great vibe. As does Hangzhou. Guangzhou has great food"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1998766777279590649)  2025-12-10T14:48Z 32.6K followers, [---] engagements


"I thought this was an excellent read Re: Nick Fuentes article Thank you for all the feedback. It is my most read and commented on article. I just wrote some thoughts and didnt expect so many to engage with it. Im going to write a follow up today. If you want to read the article: https://t.co/E7SmAZoQR6 Re: Nick Fuentes article Thank you for all the feedback. It is my most read and commented on article. I just wrote some thoughts and didnt expect so many to engage with it. Im going to write a follow up today. If you want to read the article: https://t.co/E7SmAZoQR6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1999410523167735998)  2025-12-12T09:26Z 33K followers, 35.4K engagements


"Last week @keithyap_1 invited me on his podcast. We discussed South East Asia in the era of great power rivalry (Keith is based in Singapore) the rapid evolution of Chinese tech where the AI trade goes from here. Keith is a very gracious interviewer who let me ramble on. Changing colours of the end of the day on HK harbour in the background (I did this from one of the @gavekal conference rooms) https://m.youtube.com/watchv=NBMDICxYAxQ&feature=youtu.be https://m.youtube.com/watchv=NBMDICxYAxQ&feature=youtu.be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1999790700477509932)  2025-12-13T10:37Z 33.2K followers, 26.3K engagements


"I always enjoy my year end conversation with @MarkDittli. I think this is now the seventh year we have gone through the exercise. As Mark put it to me we will keep having you on until you get it right So until then here is the review of the past year and what I believe lies in store for [----] Asian Currencies Led by the Renminbi Are Grotesquely Undervalued: @gave_vincent CEO of @Gavekal about the US-China trade war the end of US exceptionalism the fading AI trade and his investment outlook for [----] cc @jessefelder @RonStoeferle https://t.co/iOaVvidwar Asian Currencies Led by the Renminbi Are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/2002067888992366770)  2025-12-19T17:25Z 33.3K followers, 20.1K engagements


"This is a very important point by @radigancarter. If you dont follow his monthly newsletter you are missing out. Radigans newsletter is one of a handful of things I read as soon as it hits my inbox My wife is at pilates and I'm thinking about Mahan naval doctrine lol. For me this attack with an underwater drone should bother the U.S. a lot more than Russia. The carrier strike group with thousands of souls onboard is the face of U.S. global power projection. What is My wife is at pilates and I'm thinking about Mahan naval doctrine lol. For me this attack with an underwater drone should bother"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/2002070263828254966)  2025-12-19T17:35Z 33.3K followers, 23.4K engagements


"πŸ‘‡ China taking Taiwan because of a weekend US op on VZ is the most ludicrous thing Ive heard on X. Everyone should go and listen to @gave_vincent to understand why nothing will happen with Taiwan for a long long time. Minute [--] link below. China taking Taiwan because of a weekend US op on VZ is the most ludicrous thing Ive heard on X. Everyone should go and listen to @gave_vincent to understand why nothing will happen with Taiwan for a long long time. Minute [--] link below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/2007494779886580006)  2026-01-03T16:50Z 34.4K followers, 26.4K engagements


"@niravstoons FXI outperformed SPX in [----] by a little CGB outperformed UST in [----] by a lot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1874358712615498014)  2025-01-01T07:35Z 35.1K followers, [---] engagements


"Thanks for having me on guys. Enjoyed our chat Founding partner and CEO of Gavekal Group @gave_vincent joins @Christine_Benz and Dan Lefkovitz to discuss his unique background and investment opportunities in Asia and beyond. https://t.co/tfkFl4n1in Founding partner and CEO of Gavekal Group @gave_vincent joins @Christine_Benz and Dan Lefkovitz to discuss his unique background and investment opportunities in Asia and beyond. https://t.co/tfkFl4n1in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1894840164062781836)  2025-02-26T20:01Z 35.1K followers, [----] engagements


"πŸ‘‡ Every day on here I see some new feat of science fiction industry or engineering from China and there are still people who make it their life's mission to convince everyone that China can't innovate their economy is fake and we have no need to understand them. Every day on here I see some new feat of science fiction industry or engineering from China and there are still people who make it their life's mission to convince everyone that China can't innovate their economy is fake and we have no need to understand them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1902207980235583870)  2025-03-19T03:58Z 35.1K followers, 13.6K engagements


"A summary of most recent conversations I have had"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1991531513146642454)  2025-11-20T15:38Z 35.1K followers, 19.2K engagements


"It increasingly looks like a good chunk of the Chinese savings that had gone into structured products (when interest rates were higher) and that are now being reimbursed are finding their ways into equity markets. Higher volumes. Higher prices All against a backdrop of sub-par GDP growth that is very reminiscent of the post GFC United States Highest volume day ever in mainland China stock market. https://t.co/gmAwCQMgUo Highest volume day ever in mainland China stock market. https://t.co/gmAwCQMgUo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/2010771783159595245)  2026-01-12T17:52Z 35.1K followers, 248K engagements


"I imagine that when during the campaign President Trump promised to investigate the various three letter agencies his supporters thought he meant the CIA the FBI the DOJ etc. They probably did not imagine that DJT meant the Fed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/2010962924135661592)  2026-01-13T06:31Z 35.1K followers, 19.5K engagements


"For those of you who speak French. My dads latest interview Charles Gave @IdLibertes sur Legend dj [---] [---] vues aprs [--] heures en ligne https://t.co/Y17N5RzZAn Charles Gave @IdLibertes sur Legend dj [---] [---] vues aprs [--] heures en ligne https://t.co/Y17N5RzZAn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/2015572956848455878)  2026-01-25T23:50Z 35.1K followers, 70.6K engagements


"Thanks for kind words The idea is that economic activity is energy transformed so by the time energy prices start to move higher you are usually in the process of moving from inflationary boom to inflationary bust We explain a little more in the tactical asset allocation booklet available for free download here: https://web.gavekal.com/books/the-general-theory-of-portfolio-construction/ https://web.gavekal.com/books/the-general-theory-of-portfolio-construction/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/2016299321537302659)  2026-01-27T23:56Z 35.1K followers, [---] engagements


"If a picture is worth a thousand words then this sums up the French debate over pension reform"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1646886017541230592)  2023-04-14T14:39Z 35.3K followers, 103.9K engagements


"There are two scandals here. The first is Brazil. The second is big tech. On the latter its amazing how in less than [--] years the moral underpinnings of US big tech have melted away. In [----] Facebook and Google elected to leave China (a massive market) rather than give up information on the users of their platform who might have participated in Xinjiang terrorist events. [--] years later these same companies give up their users to the Brazil government and whoever else asks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1776808161900691563)  2024-04-07T03:04Z 35.3K followers, 95.6K engagements


"Every week we (Gavekal) hold a zoominar for clients in which clients ask questions and we try to engage in a discussion. Its pretty rare that Charles Anatole and myself end up on the same zoom call. So I thought we would make this one open to everyone. A note of warning: if you still have PTSD from trying to get your parents to work video calls during COVID this episode is NOT for you. But if you can get past the technical glitches this was a fun one https://research.gavekal.com/content/webinar-forward-to-the-1970s-investing-for-an-inflationary-age/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1780700377886908842)  2024-04-17T20:50Z 35.3K followers, 126.6K engagements


"I made the below to recap every conversation Ive had lately on the RMB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1789895327698354505)  2024-05-13T05:47Z 35.3K followers, 53.3K engagements


"I can relate to this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1805294718299030000)  2024-06-24T17:39Z 35.3K followers, 108.3K engagements


"Dear Arnaud In [----] in France you had a lot of people who argued that the real problem were the communists even though Nazis were goose stepping in Paris. To be sure it is possible to have two enemies. But identifying which is the first and most important enemy is key. I think you and I agree that the greatest threat to European civilisation are people like Breton who seem intent on killing our freedom of speech. These also happen to be the guys who have been in charge of Europe for the past generation with the result that we have seen. Eurocrats like Breton are TODAYs clear and present"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1823132322566467816)  2024-08-12T22:59Z 35.3K followers, 77.4K engagements


"@LukeGromen Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1836818156683403503)  2024-09-19T17:22Z 35.3K followers, 14.1K engagements


"Fun fact: total France debt is 3x as large as the total debt of the African continent La france est trois fois plus endette que la totalit du continent africain. Voil cest tout. La france est trois fois plus endette que la totalit du continent africain. Voil cest tout"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1838480155775570312)  2024-09-24T07:26Z 35.3K followers, 29.5K engagements


"2024 is turning out to be an interesting year in which suddenly BOTH Chinese Government bonds AND Chinese stocks are outperforming their US counterparts (in USD terms total returns). Too bad China is un-investible"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1840679390193086841)  2024-09-30T09:05Z 35.3K followers, 92.3K engagements


"This is pretty mind blowing I had assumed that at least construction jobs would be safe. The various applications of drones continue to surprise China has completed the world's first fully unmanned paving construction project Unmanned construction drone swarms paved and rolled across a 157.79km stretch on the Beijing-HK Expressway completing the world's first fully unmanned road paving project - On the afternoon of https://t.co/EHfKS9olHQ China has completed the world's first fully unmanned paving construction project Unmanned construction drone swarms paved and rolled across a 157.79km"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1844255094587654447)  2024-10-10T05:54Z 35.3K followers, 34.1K engagements


"Boom Double oooof https://t.co/fVt0ezZ6zR Double oooof https://t.co/fVt0ezZ6zR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1847002512894869981)  2024-10-17T19:51Z 35.3K followers, 28.6K engagements


"Why Petrochina is one of my favorite stocks right now. Talk about hitting two birds with one stone http://857.HK http://857.HK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1848195487423185028)  2024-10-21T02:51Z 35.3K followers, 40.9K engagements


"Good thread on Chinas trade balance juggernaut by @michaelxpettis. Why does anyone think that China needs to devalue China (and the world) need a RMB RE-valuation. Whenever someone tells me that China needs to devalue I always ask when they were last there The answer is somewhere between never and pre Covid. No one who has been to China in recent years argues that China needs to devalue. Everything is so cheap there. From hotel rooms to train tickets to cars to smartphones if you dont believe me then believe the trade numbers below 1/8 China's October trade numbers seemed almost designed to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1854828978605113415)  2024-11-08T10:11Z 35.3K followers, 131.5K engagements


"If this is the first step towards a Maralago accord the world will boom Breaking: Trump invites China's Xi Jinping to inauguration. https://t.co/VYIxanyJKe via @CBSPolitics Breaking: Trump invites China's Xi Jinping to inauguration. https://t.co/VYIxanyJKe via @CBSPolitics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1866989839541047721)  2024-12-11T23:33Z 35.3K followers, 103.5K engagements


"An American a Chinese a Japanese and a European walk into a financial market and each decide to put 50pc of their assets in local bonds and 50pc in local equities and rebalance weekly. In [----] in USD terms who did best Who did worse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1874206888134664409)  2024-12-31T21:31Z 35.3K followers, 122.6K engagements


"Nasdaq after the stargate announcement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1883367603395252412)  2025-01-26T04:13Z 35.3K followers, 153.9K engagements


"How the markets feel to me right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1889638060825968714)  2025-02-12T11:29Z 35.3K followers, 54.2K engagements


"I sent this a little over a month ago-the two pillars seem shakier than ever and indexed investors are not having a great time. How the markets feel to me right now https://t.co/SigDgRs3Jv How the markets feel to me right now https://t.co/SigDgRs3Jv"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1900702936659095795)  2025-03-15T00:17Z 35.3K followers, 27.5K engagements


"T Boone Pickens once said when you want a deal real bad you get a real bad deal T Boone Pickens once said when you want a deal real bad you get a real bad deal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1915466913641304085)  2025-04-24T18:04Z 35.3K followers, 42.1K engagements


"@dispicable2020 Could the fact that your home picture is a flag be an indication that maybe the bias is not where you think it is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1920997250001490335)  2025-05-10T00:20Z 35.3K followers, [----] engagements


"This whole blocking of student visas by the US amounts to such cutting your nose to spite your face that you have to wonder how the administration got here. I guess the two possible explanations are that: - a large part of the US establishment has become so rabidly anti-China that they will just embrace any measure that seems to advance decoupling. Even self-defeating measures. Alternatively - Trump is looking for ways to put pressure on Xi; to have more things to bring to the negotiating table when the two finally sit down. If it is the latter the problem is that Xi most likely doesnt care"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1928499066054586752)  2025-05-30T17:09Z 35.3K followers, 76.1K engagements


"Art is one of my business partners and a friend-so I am obviously going to be positively biased to the arguments he presents here. But for anyone with an hour to spare and an interest in understanding how China suddenly leap frogged the west in industry after industry this is very much worth a listen. Arthur Kroeber is a leading researcher on Chinese tech and macro and author of "China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know." It's the most useful detailed resource I've found of how China actually works. We discuss how China achieved high-tech manufacturing dominance and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935750969343852811)  2025-06-19T17:26Z 35.3K followers, 35.8K engagements


"Is Chinese economic growth rapidly slowing down for structural reasons (poor demographics law of large numbers less catch-up) OR does China suffer from under-consumption The response to this important question will drive policy choices for the years to come Gavekal partner @andrewbatson tackles this question in the below piece opened to everyone: https://research.gavekal.com/article/who-believes-in-chinas-output-gap/ https://research.gavekal.com/article/who-believes-in-chinas-output-gap/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1950870973059854645)  2025-07-31T10:47Z 35.3K followers, 22.5K engagements


"And some people still say that China cant do innovation the menswear guy has been QUIET since this dropped https://t.co/54HwhL7sXy the menswear guy has been QUIET since this dropped https://t.co/54HwhL7sXy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1987841590992216532)  2025-11-10T11:15Z 35.3K followers, 111.2K engagements


"So if boats cant go through the Black Sea AND boats have to wait longer in front of Panama Canal AND wheat and energy are being weaponized in the Russia-Ukraine conflict forcing every one to build up inventories AND India bans rice exports AND we have an El Nio year AND massive pay raises across the Western World AND coup in Niger which not only threatens uranium exports but also pipeline from Nigeria to Europe AND China is back to stimulating then we have deflation right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1688888936901328896)  2023-08-08T12:24Z 35.3K followers, 194.2K engagements


"After polishing off three bottles of wine with @hkuppy last night I thought we had solved all of the worlds problems. Woke up this morning and it seems that the problems are still there. Oh well. At least wine was good so no hang-over. Hope to see kuppy and his most charming wife on the Basque Coast again in the near future"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1690273893481623552)  2023-08-12T08:07Z 35.3K followers, 80K engagements


"A quick video take on last nights TikTok vote. Perhaps the most shorted sighted policy move since the freezing of the Russian oligarchs accounts. How many times will US politicians tell foreigners you money is only good here if we decide it is so No wonder gold bitcoin etc are shooting up. https://research.gavekal.com/content/video-the-importance-of-tiktok/ https://research.gavekal.com/content/video-the-importance-of-tiktok/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1768151841739800613)  2024-03-14T05:47Z 35.3K followers, 57.4K engagements


"Who could have thought that with budget deficits of 7pc of GDP at a time of full employment wed end up with an inflationary boom What were the odds Heres my take on the current situation: [--]. Bonds are trading like Yellen is on the loose printing $5.5bn a day [--]. Gold is trading like Yellen is on the loose printing $5.5bn a day [--]. Stocks are trading like Yellen is on the loose printing $5.5bn a day [--]. Oil prices are https://t.co/jSWzaFa3oI Heres my take on the current situation: [--]. Bonds are trading like Yellen is on the loose printing $5.5bn a day [--]. Gold is trading like Yellen is on the loose"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1778317346119307667)  2024-04-11T07:01Z 35.3K followers, 84.7K engagements


"The strategy is: a) all parties spent all their money on the European campaign and wont be reimbursed for their expenses for months. Right now the till is empty at every partys headquarters. b) Banks only lend to the parties of center right and the Left. Banks do NOT lend to RN So a candidacy costs a minimum of Euro [----] per seat (printing of voting bulletins printing of mandatory posters etc) but actually for the big parties its more like Euro 50k60k per seat. So now RN instead of blanketing every seat will have to strategerize as to where it will spend its limited money It will still want"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1800024242765148387)  2024-06-10T04:36Z 35.3K followers, 72.9K engagements


"A must watch intervention by JD Vance. Does this possibly announce an FX regime change If so this is the most important development this year. To be sure its hard to be the worlds military hegemon without industry Very interesting exchange from March [----] between JD Vance and Jerome Powell. Vance questions Powell on how the world reserve currency status and a strong $USD impact the U.S. domestic economy. Triffin Dilemma & Dutch Disease top of mind for the Trump admin. (0:50 start) https://t.co/T74YCeDHhn Very interesting exchange from March [----] between JD Vance and Jerome Powell. Vance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1813245321729696212)  2024-07-16T16:12Z 35.3K followers, 32.7K engagements


"Thank you to @MarionMarechal for saying what needed to be said. Why the gratuitous attack on Christianity Why the celebration of Marie-Antoinettes murder This is supposed to be a happy event. Why poke half of France (a half that pays a lot of the bills) in the eye To all the Christians of the world who are watching the #Paris2024 ceremony and felt insulted by this drag queen parody of the Last Supper know that it is not France that is speaking but a left-wing minority ready for any provocation. #notinmyname tous les chrtiens du monde https://t.co/GusP2TR63u To all the Christians of the world"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1816931868715237655)  2024-07-26T20:21Z 35.3K followers, 61.5K engagements


"Thanks for having me on Erik. I always enjoy our chats. I do need to send you a new picture though. At this stage the black hair black beard and somewhat flat stomach are pretty blatant false advertising MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend & @PatrickCeresna welcome back Louis-Vincent Gave @gave_vincent. They discuss how rate cuts are likely by years end the USD outlook precious and base metals uranium miners Chinas long-term energy policy and what this all means for the global https://t.co/ff1l8ArzLC MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend & @PatrickCeresna welcome back Louis-Vincent Gave @gave_vincent. They"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1821592348750704657)  2024-08-08T17:00Z 35.3K followers, 15.6K engagements


"Thats right 2pc is the floor Summary of the Jackson Hole speech Got gold H/T @gave_vincent @RudyHavenstein https://t.co/Jjj5At0gs7 Summary of the Jackson Hole speech Got gold H/T @gave_vincent @RudyHavenstein https://t.co/Jjj5At0gs7"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1827011955200303310)  2024-08-23T15:56Z 35.3K followers, 22.2K engagements


"Economic activity is energy transformed. The US enjoyed the shale boom and went from producing less than 6m barrels of oil per day and importing roughly usd 200bn of energy each year back then to 13m bpd today and being energy self sufficient Meanwhile in France over the same period the Hollande and Macron governments did all they could to kill our nuclear industry Fifteen years later here are the results. Economic activity is energy transformed. Kill your energy industry kill your growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1830819628949573837)  2024-09-03T04:06Z 35.3K followers, 38.8K engagements


"Three possible explanations for the painful meltdown in commodities: - Global growth is slowing hard - China has hit a brick wall - Someone (a trading house A large hedge fund An investment bank) has funded large commodity trades with JPY borrowing and is now being tapped on the shoulder The recent strong daily correlation between the JPY and the oil price leads me to believe that it is the latter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1833779028488229055)  2024-09-11T08:06Z 35.3K followers, 210K engagements


"Most people I meet with in Europe and Asia assumes that if Trump wins in November foreign policy under Trump [---] will be a replica of Trump [---] But in Trump [---] the inner sanctum was made up of Mike Pompeo John Bolton Nikki Haley Mike Pence In Trump [---] the inner sanctum seems to be RFK Jr Elon Musk Tulsi JD Vance Surely that should make for very different outcomes Dick Cheney knows it will make for a different outcome Am surprised that so many investors seem to be missing this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1833837433924022644)  2024-09-11T11:58Z 35.3K followers, 37.4K engagements


"Sometimes things come at you fast: China MSCI now outperforming USA MSCI year to date"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1840672294424777161)  2024-09-30T08:37Z 35.3K followers, 66K engagements


"Chinas real intent behind its stimulus inflection - Gavekal partner and head of research Art Kroeber sums it up in this FT editorial https://www.ft.com/content/008443cd-bb44-4b4f-b60e-17894fdba221 https://www.ft.com/content/008443cd-bb44-4b4f-b60e-17894fdba221"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1845515393424867373)  2024-10-13T17:22Z 35.3K followers, 26.3K engagements


"🎯 I keep saying and writing that all the negative reporting on China by Western media is doing readers a massive disservice. While Westerners sit around discussing whether China will implode this week or maybe next China is leap-frogging the West in industry after industry whether cars trains nuclear power plants solar panels And then CEO go and visit and the scales fall from their eyes: https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/ford-china-ev-competition-farley-ceo-50ded461 https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/ford-china-ev-competition-farley-ceo-50ded461"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1846516958667378959)  2024-10-16T11:42Z 35.3K followers, 17.6K engagements


"I wrote this article a few weeks ago but it seems to have struck a chord amongst clients some of whom asked us to unlock it. So here it is. Feel free to forward if you like it (and give @gavekal a follow for the occasional unlocked piece) In dozens of industries Chinese companies are now leading their global fields. Yet in the West the dominant view of China remains overwhelmingly negative. In this unlocked article Louis-Vincent Gave considers the reasons for this skepticism and examines its potential costs: In dozens of industries Chinese companies are now leading their global fields. Yet in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1852184101580869661)  2024-11-01T03:01Z 35.3K followers, 155.4K engagements


"If you do not follow @radigancarter then you are missing the opportunity to take in the perspective of a genuine thinker with frontline combat experience. Radigans last point is the most important. The scales in the age old conflict between land based empires and sea based empires might have just been tipped. In an age of drones and hypersonic missiles having a massive navy may no longer be the massive advantage it once was @Santiag78758327 Approval to use ATACMs means we can now all dispense with the nonsense that were defending liberal democracy. That was directly against the will of the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1858933450813923473)  2024-11-19T18:00Z 35.3K followers, 20.9K engagements


"Just had a wonderful evening of classical music here in HK which left me wondering what it is about Chinese culture that has made it such fertile ground for Western classical music to thrive It is fascinating how important Western classical music the opera ballet have become in China; in a far more pronounced way than say In Japan or Thailand or India or the Middle East or Latam It is very common for young Chinese kids to be taught the violin the piano or even to sing. Even more so than in France the UK or the US. In any event watching the growth of classical music in China gives me hope for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1882800272772317536)  2025-01-24T14:39Z 35.3K followers, 17.5K engagements


"This had me spitting out my tea Microsoft: "we're good for our $80B" Meta: "we're good for our $65B" DeepSeek: "we're good for our $5.5M" Microsoft: "we're good for our $80B" Meta: "we're good for our $65B" DeepSeek: "we're good for our $5.5M""  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1883699344194535543)  2025-01-27T02:11Z 35.3K followers, 25.3K engagements


"A summary of most of my recent meetings in the US. China has started a meaningful equity bull market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1896051905757151265)  2025-03-02T04:16Z 35.3K followers, 30.6K engagements


"A friend sent me this - good recap of US trade policy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1897076350504329368)  2025-03-05T00:07Z 35.3K followers, 28K engagements


"Will it be this week or next week that we start to see the China may have won the trade war but at what cost articles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1911480782348046778)  2025-04-13T18:05Z 35.3K followers, 65.5K engagements


"Chinese life expectancy taking another step up China halting all Boeing orders https://t.co/z2EhUDmptZ China halting all Boeing orders https://t.co/z2EhUDmptZ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1912058907322929181)  2025-04-15T08:22Z 35.3K followers, 242.6K engagements


"Friday witnessed the biggest one day move in the NT$. KRW and SGD also moved big. Are we witnessing the reversal of the [----] Asian crisis - a period of massive transfer of purchasing power from the West to the East Clearly the Trump admin no longer wants US consumer to be the consumer of last resort. So what happens next Either Asia steps up to the plate or the world enters depression. This currency move points to the former"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1918812759590105461)  2025-05-03T23:39Z 35.3K followers, 276.8K engagements


"Given the deterioration in the US-China relationship few people would likely have bet that the Hang Seng would rise by 22pc YTD. Yet here we are In the following piece unlocked for the general public I answer the most frequent questions we have been fielding from clients around this unfolding HK bull market. https://research.gavekal.com/article/a-qa-on-hong-kong/ https://research.gavekal.com/article/a-qa-on-hong-kong/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1930564376857334025)  2025-06-05T09:56Z 35.3K followers, 49.9K engagements


"One of my big themes since JD Vances Munich speech has been that the days in which commodity prices are roughly the same across the world are essentially gone. The reason the price of oil was roughly the same in South Africa and South Korea is that the US Navy guaranteed safety across the worlds ocean for free. To the extent that Munich signaled that the US was done providing such a free service it stood to reason that commodity prices could start diverging massively across the globe (and that everyone should build up more inventories). Still I did not expect that the US would willingly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1942665939037847903)  2025-07-08T19:23Z 35.3K followers, 163.3K engagements


"So it looks like I got hacked on this account. In case there was any doubt I did not suddenly become a shitcoin promoter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1970244512221221092)  2025-09-22T21:51Z 35.3K followers, 16.4K engagements


"@RnaudBertrand Dear Arnaud You missed the most obvious: Will Chinas bone glue be used to keep tracks of your movements and listen to your conversations And also How refusing to use bone glue will hurt your social credit system score"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1972517421820019060)  2025-09-29T04:22Z 35.3K followers, 511.1K engagements


"Great post by @radigancarter. When inflation accelerates two things immediately go down: bond prices and public morals. Inflation is the great destabiliser of healthy societies. Thinking more about this I dont even have a good way to fix it. Its not like I trust any of our politicians to fix it. I had hopes for Trump. When I almost got killed questioned a lot of things in my life. Similar stories from others. Thought with him almost getting shot Thinking more about this I dont even have a good way to fix it. Its not like I trust any of our politicians to fix it. I had hopes for Trump. When I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1987435827933417699)  2025-11-09T08:23Z 35.3K followers, 25.9K engagements


"Very much looking forward to catching up with the great @VincentDeluard in Miami in 48h I will be speaking with my friend @gave_vincent about China's investment outlook in Miami on Thursday. Registration details below πŸ‘‡ https://t.co/Ev1KPo9F01 I will be speaking with my friend @gave_vincent about China's investment outlook in Miami on Thursday. Registration details below πŸ‘‡ https://t.co/Ev1KPo9F01"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988390981390201282)  2025-11-11T23:38Z 35.3K followers, 56.5K engagements


"When I sit down with my good friend @vincentdeluard in Miami tomorrow I plan to mostly talk about the end of the US-China Cold War and what that means for global financial markets (basically it allows China to follow far more reflationary policies). I published a piece on this this morning and asked the editors to remove the paywall - feel free to forward https://research.gavekal.com/article/the-wrong-question-to-ask/ Very much looking forward to catching up with the great @VincentDeluard in Miami in 48h https://research.gavekal.com/article/the-wrong-question-to-ask/ Very much looking forward"  
[X Link](https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1988575378953097684)  2025-11-12T11:51Z 35.3K followers, 108.7K engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing

@gave_vincent Avatar @gave_vincent Louis-Vincent Gave

Louis-Vincent Gave posts on X about china, in the, if you, the world the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

Engagements: [---] #

Engagements Line Chart

  • [--] Week [------] +294%
  • [--] Month [-------] -47%
  • [--] Months [----------] -36%
  • [--] Year [----------] +23%

Mentions: [--] #

Mentions Line Chart

  • [--] Week [--] -14%
  • [--] Month [--] +7.10%
  • [--] Months [--] no change
  • [--] Year [---] -43%

Followers: [------] #

Followers Line Chart

  • [--] Week [------] +0.41%
  • [--] Month [------] +2.70%
  • [--] Months [------] +23%
  • [--] Year [------] +63%

CreatorRank: [---------] #

CreatorRank Line Chart

Social Influence

Social category influence countries 37.62% finance 25.74% currencies 10.89% stocks 3.96% social networks 2.97% travel destinations 2.97% technology brands 2.97% automotive brands 1.98% exchanges 0.99% cryptocurrencies 0.99%

Social topic influence china 26.73%, in the 11.88%, if you 6.93%, the world 5.94%, the most 5.94%, this is 4.95%, ceo 3.96%, gold 3.96%, stocks 3.96%, investment 3.96%

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @gavevincent @gavekal @radigancarter @benbrey @harveybsmith_ @erikstownsend @patrickceresna @hkuppy @rnaudbertrand @vincentdeluard @squirrelmacro @imetatronink @oracleofmusk @larrainvial @wealthion @jamesconnor1999 @pboockvar @notsellingearly @aberzimbabwe @nakedhedgie

Top assets mentioned Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Dear squirrel Dear Ben Thanks for having me on. I really had a great time participating in this conversation. Lots of laugh and perhaps a little too much cursing (by me) I also feel bad that I didnt really let you guys speak very much But thanks for having me on Warning to EM bulls - this may not be great for your (our) biases A fun hour with @gave_vincent and @BenBrey https://t.co/ywDZEkkIZm https://t.co/n9FqMpbyCe Warning to EM bulls - this may not be great for your (our) biases A fun hour with @gave_vincent and @BenBrey https://t.co/ywDZEkkIZm https://t.co/n9FqMpbyCe"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:14Z 35.3K followers, [----] engagements

"These past few weeks have been momentous: - The Biden pre-emptive pardons made a mockery of the rule of law - The Trump Greenland/Canada/Panama tirades blew up the belief that the US is a kind and accidental hegemon - The threat of seizure of Colombias assets re-enforced what was already known: that US assets are safe depending on who owns them which passport the owners hold and whether that country is not in the crosshairs of the US state department. - Deepseek undermined the belief in US tech supremacy and unassailable moats"
X Link 2025-01-27T09:27Z 35.3K followers, 375.9K engagements

"One of Gavekals key themes this year has been the rebuild of Fort Monroe; a US that refocuses its foreign and economic policies towards Latam. This we argued would be very bullish Latam debt and equity markets. But after an impressive performance in [----] for the regions debt markets is the trade done Last week I caught up with my friend Alexandre Larrain of @larrainvial to discuss this very issue. As we both see it momentum in the trade is strong valuations of both bonds and currencies remain attractive and [----] could witness a number of positive political catalysts. Our conversation is"
X Link 2025-11-15T11:45Z 35.3K followers, 45.3K engagements

"Thanks so much for having me on I really enjoyed our chat Latest pod features Louis Gave @gave_vincent the CEO of Gavekal @Gavekal. Louis presents a strong case that China long a deflationary factor is turning. He calls the renminbi the worlds most wrong asset price far too weak in the context of macro fundamentals. As the Latest pod features Louis Gave @gave_vincent the CEO of Gavekal @Gavekal. Louis presents a strong case that China long a deflationary factor is turning. He calls the renminbi the worlds most wrong asset price far too weak in the context of macro fundamentals. As the"
X Link 2026-02-04T19:14Z 35.3K followers, 17.7K engagements

"Good news: the Dow Jones is back below [-----]. So the US DoJ can start prosecuting pedophiles now"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:55Z 35.3K followers, 60.4K engagements

"And btw squirrel and ben am not sure its really fair for you to use your high school yearbook pictures while I am made to look more or less my age Warning to EM bulls - this may not be great for your (our) biases A fun hour with @gave_vincent and @BenBrey https://t.co/ywDZEkkIZm https://t.co/n9FqMpbyCe Warning to EM bulls - this may not be great for your (our) biases A fun hour with @gave_vincent and @BenBrey https://t.co/ywDZEkkIZm https://t.co/n9FqMpbyCe"
X Link 2026-02-13T02:17Z 35.3K followers, 12K engagements

"Thanks for having me on @wealthion Enjoyed our conversation Is U.S. dominance fading Louis-Vincent Gave breaks down the dollars decline Chinas rise & flawed economic data. πŸ“Ί Watch now: https://t.co/URPveRhnsa @gave_vincent @JamesConnor1999 #DollarDecline #ChinaEconomy #Macroeconomics #Inflation #EmergingMarkets #Gold #Investing https://t.co/2CemxprvHQ Is U.S. dominance fading Louis-Vincent Gave breaks down the dollars decline Chinas rise & flawed economic data. πŸ“Ί Watch now: https://t.co/URPveRhnsa @gave_vincent @JamesConnor1999 #DollarDecline #ChinaEconomy #Macroeconomics #Inflation"
X Link 2025-08-07T02:47Z 35.3K followers, 21.7K engagements

"Happy Assumption Day. My parents on the way to mass in Provence"
X Link 2025-08-15T18:01Z 35.3K followers, 11.5K engagements

"Thanks for having me on @ErikSTownsend and @PatrickCeresna - always enjoy our catch-ups. MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend & @PatrickCeresna welcome Louis-Vincent Gave @gave_vincent. They'll discuss his long-term perspective on Chinas role in the global economy highlighting both its extraordinary infrastructure ambitions and the challenges of securing foreign capital https://t.co/PwNeMc4Xl8 MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend & @PatrickCeresna welcome Louis-Vincent Gave @gave_vincent. They'll discuss his long-term perspective on Chinas role in the global economy highlighting both its extraordinary"
X Link 2025-08-29T02:48Z 35.3K followers, 47.8K engagements

"With @hkuppy at the @gavekal global (HK) headquarters"
X Link 2025-10-30T14:53Z 35.3K followers, 52.3K engagements

"We just published a terrific guest piece from my friend Weijian Shan. I think it is a must read for anyone looking to understand Chinas advances in manufacturing. The piece has no firewall and is open to everyone. Incidentally Weijian Shan wrote one of my favourite books; a book I had all four of my kids read. The book OUT OF THE GOBI details his growing up at the time of the cultural revolution. Hard to understand China today without understanding what the current generation of leaders went through in the late 1960s/early 1970s Please forward widely"
X Link 2025-11-06T12:21Z 35.3K followers, 403.9K engagements

"Yes. It does. Out of the USD 800bn or so that the US spends on defense roughly USD 300bn goes to veterans affairs. This is slated to rise to usd 418bn by [----]. So a lot of the US military spending is what would be in other countries considered social spending (medical benefits pensions). Incidentally this means that cutting US defense budgets is much tougher than would appear at first glance"
X Link 2023-11-16T18:47Z 30.6K followers, [----] engagements

"A great question. Will the digital RMB gradually replace the HKD in daily transactions If so the HKMA will have USD 430bn or so needing a new purpose Create a Temesek/Adia like institution At the very least no need for massive UST holdings (to defend the peg) anymore. Capital could then be used elsewhere"
X Link 2024-05-22T15:17Z 31.3K followers, [---] engagements

"Chinas unfolding consumer deflationary boom in one chart. I guess it explains how Chinese equities could lose two thirds of their value real estate lose between a quarter and a third of its value and domestic auto sales still make new highs. 21st Century Fordism indeed. Over the 16-year period since [----] the number of years it takes for an average Chinese manufacturing worker to afford a basic plug-in EV has fallen from [--] years to [--]. This is while the technical/performance specs have increased dramatically. https://t.co/1K5VfkU6JY 21st Century Fordism indeed. Over the 16-year period since"
X Link 2024-06-04T05:33Z 33.4K followers, 32.3K engagements

"Canada announces tariffs on US beers. Be honest: who had Trudeau signing up for the Bud-Light boycott on their [----] bingo cards https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/02/canada-announces-155b-tariff-package-in-response-to-unjustified-us-tariffs.html https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/02/canada-announces-155b-tariff-package-in-response-to-unjustified-us-tariffs.html"
X Link 2025-02-02T11:07Z 21.9K followers, [----] engagements

"I subscribe to Baiguan and I recommend it to anyone interested in China. Robert writes about culture social and economic issues and political developments in an easy going prose. Its a great way to keep tabs on China. Strong recommend Yesterday at Baiguan's paying-subscriber Discord community there was a discussion about India and China from which I learned so much from. An Indian businessman with biz interests in both India and China shared some incredible insights on India-China relations innovation https://t.co/fKtr9azMZr Yesterday at Baiguan's paying-subscriber Discord community there was"
X Link 2025-02-12T17:17Z 21.7K followers, 11.6K engagements

"I always recommend Out of the Gobi by Weijian Shan to anyone who wants to understand the formative experience of the current generation of Chinese leaders. Jonathan Spences The Search for Modern China is I believe the most comprehensive book to understand the past [---] years of Chinese History. Just started The Great Transformation. A new book about turning the page on the Mao years. So far it seems promising"
X Link 2025-02-12T20:19Z 21.7K followers, [---] engagements

"One of my more recent pieces Global markets are experiencing rapid shifts driven by political economic and technological changes. Read more here: https://t.co/SvEPI31zYu Global markets are experiencing rapid shifts driven by political economic and technological changes. Read more here: https://t.co/SvEPI31zYu"
X Link 2025-02-14T02:37Z 21.7K followers, 11.6K engagements

"Of all the battles the US might pick with China why choose the HKD Essentially the US would be telling China we are tired of the HKMA buying so many US Treasuries. Make them stop Why would you think this likely As for China what does China gain by breaking the HKD peg Who wins what by picking a fight over the HKD"
X Link 2025-02-14T10:55Z 21.6K followers, [--] engagements

"Great piece πŸ‘‡ As the cries of USA USA continue to echo from the trading floors of Lower Manhattan those uninvestable Chinese equities have started [----] with intent to leave American Exceptionalism in their wake for a second year in a row. Hot for Hot Pot https://t.co/NxtTlv25Rz As the cries of USA USA continue to echo from the trading floors of Lower Manhattan those uninvestable Chinese equities have started [----] with intent to leave American Exceptionalism in their wake for a second year in a row. Hot for Hot Pot https://t.co/NxtTlv25Rz"
X Link 2025-02-18T07:09Z 21.9K followers, 10.2K engagements

"Thanks for the plug (and for the very kind words) @radigancarter - glad you liked the book And yes: we all need more hobbies. If you are interested in managing your own investments would recommend reading Charles Gave's new book The General Theory of Portfolio Construction. Charles has generously made it available for free download or you can pay a few dollars for a hard copy to take notes in like https://t.co/Q8qKHVJP6K If you are interested in managing your own investments would recommend reading Charles Gave's new book The General Theory of Portfolio Construction. Charles has generously"
X Link 2025-02-21T15:42Z 33.4K followers, [----] engagements

"Thanks for having me on. I had a lot of fun The West has been leapfrogged by China and the only way to compete is by making better products🏭🌏 πŸŽ™ @gave_vincent joined the latest podcast with Dan & @pboockvar https://t.co/dqPdoGRFbS The West has been leapfrogged by China and the only way to compete is by making better products🏭🌏 πŸŽ™ @gave_vincent joined the latest podcast with Dan & @pboockvar https://t.co/dqPdoGRFbS"
X Link 2025-09-24T15:16Z 30.2K followers, 15.9K engagements

"Unless I am mistaken this is a first #1 ranking for Duke. Proud dad moment The Rankings are IN πŸ“Š The nations coaches have cast their votes see who made the cut in this weeks Top [--] Mens Rugby Rankings. πŸ‘€ Drop your thoughts below #NCR #NationalCollegiateRugby https://t.co/LGA8GtYRNI The Rankings are IN πŸ“Š The nations coaches have cast their votes see who made the cut in this weeks Top [--] Mens Rugby Rankings. πŸ‘€ Drop your thoughts below #NCR #NationalCollegiateRugby https://t.co/LGA8GtYRNI"
X Link 2025-10-01T23:34Z 30K followers, 15.1K engagements

"@notsellingearly @aberzimbabwe @NakedHedgie Another quote I like is that you dont stop playing because you are getting old. You get old because youve stopped playing"
X Link 2025-10-22T17:49Z 30.1K followers, [--] engagements

"@buxmd9999 @jsblokland HK is going down that path. I think its highly unlikely on the Mainland. At least for now. Beijing will look at what happens in HK and then weigh the positives against the negatives. But nothing will happen on Mainland re: stablecoins in the short term"
X Link 2025-11-11T13:34Z 31.1K followers, [--] engagements

"Thanks for having me on @erik_ywr. I really enjoyed our macro misfits weekend in HK and Shenzhen and getting a chance to re-ash the main China takeaways on this call was a treat. Still I felt you left out the most important. Specifically: - your dancing at Madame Fu restaurant - how you (along with Jamie and Steven) were last men standing on Halloween night in LKF So kudos to you Chinese stocks in [----] are like the S&P [---] in [----]. My takeaway from a great talk with @gave_vincent https://t.co/0RMvk6eCe8 Chinese stocks in [----] are like the S&P [---] in [----]. My takeaway from a great talk with"
X Link 2025-11-21T21:12Z 31.7K followers, 26.5K engagements

"Thanks for the below @RnaudBertrand I too thought that Weijian Shans paper was eye opening on so many fronts. I am glad he allowed us to publish it and share with a wider audience I finally got a chance to read this fascinating paper on productivity in China by Weijian Shan a man who's had an incredible life starting as a Cultural Revolution worker in the Gobi desert to today one of the world's most respected investors. One statistic blew my mind. In I finally got a chance to read this fascinating paper on productivity in China by Weijian Shan a man who's had an incredible life starting as a"
X Link 2025-11-22T02:50Z 31.8K followers, 44.6K engagements

"What China wants to buy (ie: semis) the US wont sell or cant produce fast enough (ie planes) What the US wants to buy (ie rare earths and magnets for missiles) China now wont sell What the US wants to sell (ie: LNG soybeans) China can typically get cheaper elsewhere (ie: Russia) What China now wants to sell (ie: cars turbines nuclear power plants high speed rail) the US wont buy (which might well create long term competitiveness issues) Surely our wise leaders could come up with a better system"
X Link 2025-11-27T15:45Z 31.8K followers, 13.3K engagements

"Everyone focuses on whether the Fed will cut 25bp or not in December Meanwhile in Brazil rate cuts over the coming year might be 200bp 300bp or 400bp Brazil is where the juice is Give my friend @alex_larrain_ a follow if you have any interest in Latam debt markets. Or Latam in general A stronger rate cutting scenario is being priced-in in Brazil with DI swap rates down 40bps in a month. The market is pricing inflation convergence as well as higher odds of political chance next year. 300bps priced in is still too little. Look for [---]. DTMIDWY https://t.co/fsadGWiB9h A stronger rate cutting"
X Link 2025-11-27T18:59Z 32.6K followers, 53.1K engagements

"πŸ‘‡ Trump (and Wall Street consensus) to the Japanese government: "You are going to fund a big portion of the reshoring and rebuilding of the US industrial base and electrical grid." JGB market to the Japanese government: https://t.co/1ZPIV0MLGz Trump (and Wall Street consensus) to the Japanese government: "You are going to fund a big portion of the reshoring and rebuilding of the US industrial base and electrical grid." JGB market to the Japanese government: https://t.co/1ZPIV0MLGz"
X Link 2025-12-02T21:06Z 32.6K followers, 24.2K engagements

"My latest piece on the evolution of the US-China relationship. Nothing in there that I have not said in podcasts and written in various reports over the years. Including the jokes. But its a quick read Anyway this piece is unlocked. Constructive feedback welcomed https://research.gavekal.com/article/us-exceptionalism-versus-chinese-uninvestibility-part-i/ https://research.gavekal.com/article/us-exceptionalism-versus-chinese-uninvestibility-part-i/"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:14Z 34.4K followers, 201.8K engagements

"@briangobosox Maybe you missed the part where the Raytheon and Ford CEOs say that without Chinese magnets and rate earths they have to shut down production"
X Link 2025-12-09T19:38Z 33K followers, [----] engagements

"@svanerkel My favorite cities are HK Shanghai Beijing and Chengdu. Xian has a great vibe. As does Hangzhou. Guangzhou has great food"
X Link 2025-12-10T14:48Z 32.6K followers, [---] engagements

"I thought this was an excellent read Re: Nick Fuentes article Thank you for all the feedback. It is my most read and commented on article. I just wrote some thoughts and didnt expect so many to engage with it. Im going to write a follow up today. If you want to read the article: https://t.co/E7SmAZoQR6 Re: Nick Fuentes article Thank you for all the feedback. It is my most read and commented on article. I just wrote some thoughts and didnt expect so many to engage with it. Im going to write a follow up today. If you want to read the article: https://t.co/E7SmAZoQR6"
X Link 2025-12-12T09:26Z 33K followers, 35.4K engagements

"Last week @keithyap_1 invited me on his podcast. We discussed South East Asia in the era of great power rivalry (Keith is based in Singapore) the rapid evolution of Chinese tech where the AI trade goes from here. Keith is a very gracious interviewer who let me ramble on. Changing colours of the end of the day on HK harbour in the background (I did this from one of the @gavekal conference rooms) https://m.youtube.com/watchv=NBMDICxYAxQ&feature=youtu.be https://m.youtube.com/watchv=NBMDICxYAxQ&feature=youtu.be"
X Link 2025-12-13T10:37Z 33.2K followers, 26.3K engagements

"I always enjoy my year end conversation with @MarkDittli. I think this is now the seventh year we have gone through the exercise. As Mark put it to me we will keep having you on until you get it right So until then here is the review of the past year and what I believe lies in store for [----] Asian Currencies Led by the Renminbi Are Grotesquely Undervalued: @gave_vincent CEO of @Gavekal about the US-China trade war the end of US exceptionalism the fading AI trade and his investment outlook for [----] cc @jessefelder @RonStoeferle https://t.co/iOaVvidwar Asian Currencies Led by the Renminbi Are"
X Link 2025-12-19T17:25Z 33.3K followers, 20.1K engagements

"This is a very important point by @radigancarter. If you dont follow his monthly newsletter you are missing out. Radigans newsletter is one of a handful of things I read as soon as it hits my inbox My wife is at pilates and I'm thinking about Mahan naval doctrine lol. For me this attack with an underwater drone should bother the U.S. a lot more than Russia. The carrier strike group with thousands of souls onboard is the face of U.S. global power projection. What is My wife is at pilates and I'm thinking about Mahan naval doctrine lol. For me this attack with an underwater drone should bother"
X Link 2025-12-19T17:35Z 33.3K followers, 23.4K engagements

"πŸ‘‡ China taking Taiwan because of a weekend US op on VZ is the most ludicrous thing Ive heard on X. Everyone should go and listen to @gave_vincent to understand why nothing will happen with Taiwan for a long long time. Minute [--] link below. China taking Taiwan because of a weekend US op on VZ is the most ludicrous thing Ive heard on X. Everyone should go and listen to @gave_vincent to understand why nothing will happen with Taiwan for a long long time. Minute [--] link below"
X Link 2026-01-03T16:50Z 34.4K followers, 26.4K engagements

"@niravstoons FXI outperformed SPX in [----] by a little CGB outperformed UST in [----] by a lot"
X Link 2025-01-01T07:35Z 35.1K followers, [---] engagements

"Thanks for having me on guys. Enjoyed our chat Founding partner and CEO of Gavekal Group @gave_vincent joins @Christine_Benz and Dan Lefkovitz to discuss his unique background and investment opportunities in Asia and beyond. https://t.co/tfkFl4n1in Founding partner and CEO of Gavekal Group @gave_vincent joins @Christine_Benz and Dan Lefkovitz to discuss his unique background and investment opportunities in Asia and beyond. https://t.co/tfkFl4n1in"
X Link 2025-02-26T20:01Z 35.1K followers, [----] engagements

"πŸ‘‡ Every day on here I see some new feat of science fiction industry or engineering from China and there are still people who make it their life's mission to convince everyone that China can't innovate their economy is fake and we have no need to understand them. Every day on here I see some new feat of science fiction industry or engineering from China and there are still people who make it their life's mission to convince everyone that China can't innovate their economy is fake and we have no need to understand them"
X Link 2025-03-19T03:58Z 35.1K followers, 13.6K engagements

"A summary of most recent conversations I have had"
X Link 2025-11-20T15:38Z 35.1K followers, 19.2K engagements

"It increasingly looks like a good chunk of the Chinese savings that had gone into structured products (when interest rates were higher) and that are now being reimbursed are finding their ways into equity markets. Higher volumes. Higher prices All against a backdrop of sub-par GDP growth that is very reminiscent of the post GFC United States Highest volume day ever in mainland China stock market. https://t.co/gmAwCQMgUo Highest volume day ever in mainland China stock market. https://t.co/gmAwCQMgUo"
X Link 2026-01-12T17:52Z 35.1K followers, 248K engagements

"I imagine that when during the campaign President Trump promised to investigate the various three letter agencies his supporters thought he meant the CIA the FBI the DOJ etc. They probably did not imagine that DJT meant the Fed"
X Link 2026-01-13T06:31Z 35.1K followers, 19.5K engagements

"For those of you who speak French. My dads latest interview Charles Gave @IdLibertes sur Legend dj [---] [---] vues aprs [--] heures en ligne https://t.co/Y17N5RzZAn Charles Gave @IdLibertes sur Legend dj [---] [---] vues aprs [--] heures en ligne https://t.co/Y17N5RzZAn"
X Link 2026-01-25T23:50Z 35.1K followers, 70.6K engagements

"Thanks for kind words The idea is that economic activity is energy transformed so by the time energy prices start to move higher you are usually in the process of moving from inflationary boom to inflationary bust We explain a little more in the tactical asset allocation booklet available for free download here: https://web.gavekal.com/books/the-general-theory-of-portfolio-construction/ https://web.gavekal.com/books/the-general-theory-of-portfolio-construction/"
X Link 2026-01-27T23:56Z 35.1K followers, [---] engagements

"If a picture is worth a thousand words then this sums up the French debate over pension reform"
X Link 2023-04-14T14:39Z 35.3K followers, 103.9K engagements

"There are two scandals here. The first is Brazil. The second is big tech. On the latter its amazing how in less than [--] years the moral underpinnings of US big tech have melted away. In [----] Facebook and Google elected to leave China (a massive market) rather than give up information on the users of their platform who might have participated in Xinjiang terrorist events. [--] years later these same companies give up their users to the Brazil government and whoever else asks"
X Link 2024-04-07T03:04Z 35.3K followers, 95.6K engagements

"Every week we (Gavekal) hold a zoominar for clients in which clients ask questions and we try to engage in a discussion. Its pretty rare that Charles Anatole and myself end up on the same zoom call. So I thought we would make this one open to everyone. A note of warning: if you still have PTSD from trying to get your parents to work video calls during COVID this episode is NOT for you. But if you can get past the technical glitches this was a fun one https://research.gavekal.com/content/webinar-forward-to-the-1970s-investing-for-an-inflationary-age/"
X Link 2024-04-17T20:50Z 35.3K followers, 126.6K engagements

"I made the below to recap every conversation Ive had lately on the RMB"
X Link 2024-05-13T05:47Z 35.3K followers, 53.3K engagements

"I can relate to this"
X Link 2024-06-24T17:39Z 35.3K followers, 108.3K engagements

"Dear Arnaud In [----] in France you had a lot of people who argued that the real problem were the communists even though Nazis were goose stepping in Paris. To be sure it is possible to have two enemies. But identifying which is the first and most important enemy is key. I think you and I agree that the greatest threat to European civilisation are people like Breton who seem intent on killing our freedom of speech. These also happen to be the guys who have been in charge of Europe for the past generation with the result that we have seen. Eurocrats like Breton are TODAYs clear and present"
X Link 2024-08-12T22:59Z 35.3K followers, 77.4K engagements

"@LukeGromen Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell"
X Link 2024-09-19T17:22Z 35.3K followers, 14.1K engagements

"Fun fact: total France debt is 3x as large as the total debt of the African continent La france est trois fois plus endette que la totalit du continent africain. Voil cest tout. La france est trois fois plus endette que la totalit du continent africain. Voil cest tout"
X Link 2024-09-24T07:26Z 35.3K followers, 29.5K engagements

"2024 is turning out to be an interesting year in which suddenly BOTH Chinese Government bonds AND Chinese stocks are outperforming their US counterparts (in USD terms total returns). Too bad China is un-investible"
X Link 2024-09-30T09:05Z 35.3K followers, 92.3K engagements

"This is pretty mind blowing I had assumed that at least construction jobs would be safe. The various applications of drones continue to surprise China has completed the world's first fully unmanned paving construction project Unmanned construction drone swarms paved and rolled across a 157.79km stretch on the Beijing-HK Expressway completing the world's first fully unmanned road paving project - On the afternoon of https://t.co/EHfKS9olHQ China has completed the world's first fully unmanned paving construction project Unmanned construction drone swarms paved and rolled across a 157.79km"
X Link 2024-10-10T05:54Z 35.3K followers, 34.1K engagements

"Boom Double oooof https://t.co/fVt0ezZ6zR Double oooof https://t.co/fVt0ezZ6zR"
X Link 2024-10-17T19:51Z 35.3K followers, 28.6K engagements

"Why Petrochina is one of my favorite stocks right now. Talk about hitting two birds with one stone http://857.HK http://857.HK"
X Link 2024-10-21T02:51Z 35.3K followers, 40.9K engagements

"Good thread on Chinas trade balance juggernaut by @michaelxpettis. Why does anyone think that China needs to devalue China (and the world) need a RMB RE-valuation. Whenever someone tells me that China needs to devalue I always ask when they were last there The answer is somewhere between never and pre Covid. No one who has been to China in recent years argues that China needs to devalue. Everything is so cheap there. From hotel rooms to train tickets to cars to smartphones if you dont believe me then believe the trade numbers below 1/8 China's October trade numbers seemed almost designed to"
X Link 2024-11-08T10:11Z 35.3K followers, 131.5K engagements

"If this is the first step towards a Maralago accord the world will boom Breaking: Trump invites China's Xi Jinping to inauguration. https://t.co/VYIxanyJKe via @CBSPolitics Breaking: Trump invites China's Xi Jinping to inauguration. https://t.co/VYIxanyJKe via @CBSPolitics"
X Link 2024-12-11T23:33Z 35.3K followers, 103.5K engagements

"An American a Chinese a Japanese and a European walk into a financial market and each decide to put 50pc of their assets in local bonds and 50pc in local equities and rebalance weekly. In [----] in USD terms who did best Who did worse"
X Link 2024-12-31T21:31Z 35.3K followers, 122.6K engagements

"Nasdaq after the stargate announcement"
X Link 2025-01-26T04:13Z 35.3K followers, 153.9K engagements

"How the markets feel to me right now"
X Link 2025-02-12T11:29Z 35.3K followers, 54.2K engagements

"I sent this a little over a month ago-the two pillars seem shakier than ever and indexed investors are not having a great time. How the markets feel to me right now https://t.co/SigDgRs3Jv How the markets feel to me right now https://t.co/SigDgRs3Jv"
X Link 2025-03-15T00:17Z 35.3K followers, 27.5K engagements

"T Boone Pickens once said when you want a deal real bad you get a real bad deal T Boone Pickens once said when you want a deal real bad you get a real bad deal"
X Link 2025-04-24T18:04Z 35.3K followers, 42.1K engagements

"@dispicable2020 Could the fact that your home picture is a flag be an indication that maybe the bias is not where you think it is"
X Link 2025-05-10T00:20Z 35.3K followers, [----] engagements

"This whole blocking of student visas by the US amounts to such cutting your nose to spite your face that you have to wonder how the administration got here. I guess the two possible explanations are that: - a large part of the US establishment has become so rabidly anti-China that they will just embrace any measure that seems to advance decoupling. Even self-defeating measures. Alternatively - Trump is looking for ways to put pressure on Xi; to have more things to bring to the negotiating table when the two finally sit down. If it is the latter the problem is that Xi most likely doesnt care"
X Link 2025-05-30T17:09Z 35.3K followers, 76.1K engagements

"Art is one of my business partners and a friend-so I am obviously going to be positively biased to the arguments he presents here. But for anyone with an hour to spare and an interest in understanding how China suddenly leap frogged the west in industry after industry this is very much worth a listen. Arthur Kroeber is a leading researcher on Chinese tech and macro and author of "China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know." It's the most useful detailed resource I've found of how China actually works. We discuss how China achieved high-tech manufacturing dominance and"
X Link 2025-06-19T17:26Z 35.3K followers, 35.8K engagements

"Is Chinese economic growth rapidly slowing down for structural reasons (poor demographics law of large numbers less catch-up) OR does China suffer from under-consumption The response to this important question will drive policy choices for the years to come Gavekal partner @andrewbatson tackles this question in the below piece opened to everyone: https://research.gavekal.com/article/who-believes-in-chinas-output-gap/ https://research.gavekal.com/article/who-believes-in-chinas-output-gap/"
X Link 2025-07-31T10:47Z 35.3K followers, 22.5K engagements

"And some people still say that China cant do innovation the menswear guy has been QUIET since this dropped https://t.co/54HwhL7sXy the menswear guy has been QUIET since this dropped https://t.co/54HwhL7sXy"
X Link 2025-11-10T11:15Z 35.3K followers, 111.2K engagements

"So if boats cant go through the Black Sea AND boats have to wait longer in front of Panama Canal AND wheat and energy are being weaponized in the Russia-Ukraine conflict forcing every one to build up inventories AND India bans rice exports AND we have an El Nio year AND massive pay raises across the Western World AND coup in Niger which not only threatens uranium exports but also pipeline from Nigeria to Europe AND China is back to stimulating then we have deflation right"
X Link 2023-08-08T12:24Z 35.3K followers, 194.2K engagements

"After polishing off three bottles of wine with @hkuppy last night I thought we had solved all of the worlds problems. Woke up this morning and it seems that the problems are still there. Oh well. At least wine was good so no hang-over. Hope to see kuppy and his most charming wife on the Basque Coast again in the near future"
X Link 2023-08-12T08:07Z 35.3K followers, 80K engagements

"A quick video take on last nights TikTok vote. Perhaps the most shorted sighted policy move since the freezing of the Russian oligarchs accounts. How many times will US politicians tell foreigners you money is only good here if we decide it is so No wonder gold bitcoin etc are shooting up. https://research.gavekal.com/content/video-the-importance-of-tiktok/ https://research.gavekal.com/content/video-the-importance-of-tiktok/"
X Link 2024-03-14T05:47Z 35.3K followers, 57.4K engagements

"Who could have thought that with budget deficits of 7pc of GDP at a time of full employment wed end up with an inflationary boom What were the odds Heres my take on the current situation: [--]. Bonds are trading like Yellen is on the loose printing $5.5bn a day [--]. Gold is trading like Yellen is on the loose printing $5.5bn a day [--]. Stocks are trading like Yellen is on the loose printing $5.5bn a day [--]. Oil prices are https://t.co/jSWzaFa3oI Heres my take on the current situation: [--]. Bonds are trading like Yellen is on the loose printing $5.5bn a day [--]. Gold is trading like Yellen is on the loose"
X Link 2024-04-11T07:01Z 35.3K followers, 84.7K engagements

"The strategy is: a) all parties spent all their money on the European campaign and wont be reimbursed for their expenses for months. Right now the till is empty at every partys headquarters. b) Banks only lend to the parties of center right and the Left. Banks do NOT lend to RN So a candidacy costs a minimum of Euro [----] per seat (printing of voting bulletins printing of mandatory posters etc) but actually for the big parties its more like Euro 50k60k per seat. So now RN instead of blanketing every seat will have to strategerize as to where it will spend its limited money It will still want"
X Link 2024-06-10T04:36Z 35.3K followers, 72.9K engagements

"A must watch intervention by JD Vance. Does this possibly announce an FX regime change If so this is the most important development this year. To be sure its hard to be the worlds military hegemon without industry Very interesting exchange from March [----] between JD Vance and Jerome Powell. Vance questions Powell on how the world reserve currency status and a strong $USD impact the U.S. domestic economy. Triffin Dilemma & Dutch Disease top of mind for the Trump admin. (0:50 start) https://t.co/T74YCeDHhn Very interesting exchange from March [----] between JD Vance and Jerome Powell. Vance"
X Link 2024-07-16T16:12Z 35.3K followers, 32.7K engagements

"Thank you to @MarionMarechal for saying what needed to be said. Why the gratuitous attack on Christianity Why the celebration of Marie-Antoinettes murder This is supposed to be a happy event. Why poke half of France (a half that pays a lot of the bills) in the eye To all the Christians of the world who are watching the #Paris2024 ceremony and felt insulted by this drag queen parody of the Last Supper know that it is not France that is speaking but a left-wing minority ready for any provocation. #notinmyname tous les chrtiens du monde https://t.co/GusP2TR63u To all the Christians of the world"
X Link 2024-07-26T20:21Z 35.3K followers, 61.5K engagements

"Thanks for having me on Erik. I always enjoy our chats. I do need to send you a new picture though. At this stage the black hair black beard and somewhat flat stomach are pretty blatant false advertising MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend & @PatrickCeresna welcome back Louis-Vincent Gave @gave_vincent. They discuss how rate cuts are likely by years end the USD outlook precious and base metals uranium miners Chinas long-term energy policy and what this all means for the global https://t.co/ff1l8ArzLC MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend & @PatrickCeresna welcome back Louis-Vincent Gave @gave_vincent. They"
X Link 2024-08-08T17:00Z 35.3K followers, 15.6K engagements

"Thats right 2pc is the floor Summary of the Jackson Hole speech Got gold H/T @gave_vincent @RudyHavenstein https://t.co/Jjj5At0gs7 Summary of the Jackson Hole speech Got gold H/T @gave_vincent @RudyHavenstein https://t.co/Jjj5At0gs7"
X Link 2024-08-23T15:56Z 35.3K followers, 22.2K engagements

"Economic activity is energy transformed. The US enjoyed the shale boom and went from producing less than 6m barrels of oil per day and importing roughly usd 200bn of energy each year back then to 13m bpd today and being energy self sufficient Meanwhile in France over the same period the Hollande and Macron governments did all they could to kill our nuclear industry Fifteen years later here are the results. Economic activity is energy transformed. Kill your energy industry kill your growth"
X Link 2024-09-03T04:06Z 35.3K followers, 38.8K engagements

"Three possible explanations for the painful meltdown in commodities: - Global growth is slowing hard - China has hit a brick wall - Someone (a trading house A large hedge fund An investment bank) has funded large commodity trades with JPY borrowing and is now being tapped on the shoulder The recent strong daily correlation between the JPY and the oil price leads me to believe that it is the latter"
X Link 2024-09-11T08:06Z 35.3K followers, 210K engagements

"Most people I meet with in Europe and Asia assumes that if Trump wins in November foreign policy under Trump [---] will be a replica of Trump [---] But in Trump [---] the inner sanctum was made up of Mike Pompeo John Bolton Nikki Haley Mike Pence In Trump [---] the inner sanctum seems to be RFK Jr Elon Musk Tulsi JD Vance Surely that should make for very different outcomes Dick Cheney knows it will make for a different outcome Am surprised that so many investors seem to be missing this"
X Link 2024-09-11T11:58Z 35.3K followers, 37.4K engagements

"Sometimes things come at you fast: China MSCI now outperforming USA MSCI year to date"
X Link 2024-09-30T08:37Z 35.3K followers, 66K engagements

"Chinas real intent behind its stimulus inflection - Gavekal partner and head of research Art Kroeber sums it up in this FT editorial https://www.ft.com/content/008443cd-bb44-4b4f-b60e-17894fdba221 https://www.ft.com/content/008443cd-bb44-4b4f-b60e-17894fdba221"
X Link 2024-10-13T17:22Z 35.3K followers, 26.3K engagements

"🎯 I keep saying and writing that all the negative reporting on China by Western media is doing readers a massive disservice. While Westerners sit around discussing whether China will implode this week or maybe next China is leap-frogging the West in industry after industry whether cars trains nuclear power plants solar panels And then CEO go and visit and the scales fall from their eyes: https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/ford-china-ev-competition-farley-ceo-50ded461 https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/ford-china-ev-competition-farley-ceo-50ded461"
X Link 2024-10-16T11:42Z 35.3K followers, 17.6K engagements

"I wrote this article a few weeks ago but it seems to have struck a chord amongst clients some of whom asked us to unlock it. So here it is. Feel free to forward if you like it (and give @gavekal a follow for the occasional unlocked piece) In dozens of industries Chinese companies are now leading their global fields. Yet in the West the dominant view of China remains overwhelmingly negative. In this unlocked article Louis-Vincent Gave considers the reasons for this skepticism and examines its potential costs: In dozens of industries Chinese companies are now leading their global fields. Yet in"
X Link 2024-11-01T03:01Z 35.3K followers, 155.4K engagements

"If you do not follow @radigancarter then you are missing the opportunity to take in the perspective of a genuine thinker with frontline combat experience. Radigans last point is the most important. The scales in the age old conflict between land based empires and sea based empires might have just been tipped. In an age of drones and hypersonic missiles having a massive navy may no longer be the massive advantage it once was @Santiag78758327 Approval to use ATACMs means we can now all dispense with the nonsense that were defending liberal democracy. That was directly against the will of the"
X Link 2024-11-19T18:00Z 35.3K followers, 20.9K engagements

"Just had a wonderful evening of classical music here in HK which left me wondering what it is about Chinese culture that has made it such fertile ground for Western classical music to thrive It is fascinating how important Western classical music the opera ballet have become in China; in a far more pronounced way than say In Japan or Thailand or India or the Middle East or Latam It is very common for young Chinese kids to be taught the violin the piano or even to sing. Even more so than in France the UK or the US. In any event watching the growth of classical music in China gives me hope for"
X Link 2025-01-24T14:39Z 35.3K followers, 17.5K engagements

"This had me spitting out my tea Microsoft: "we're good for our $80B" Meta: "we're good for our $65B" DeepSeek: "we're good for our $5.5M" Microsoft: "we're good for our $80B" Meta: "we're good for our $65B" DeepSeek: "we're good for our $5.5M""
X Link 2025-01-27T02:11Z 35.3K followers, 25.3K engagements

"A summary of most of my recent meetings in the US. China has started a meaningful equity bull market"
X Link 2025-03-02T04:16Z 35.3K followers, 30.6K engagements

"A friend sent me this - good recap of US trade policy"
X Link 2025-03-05T00:07Z 35.3K followers, 28K engagements

"Will it be this week or next week that we start to see the China may have won the trade war but at what cost articles"
X Link 2025-04-13T18:05Z 35.3K followers, 65.5K engagements

"Chinese life expectancy taking another step up China halting all Boeing orders https://t.co/z2EhUDmptZ China halting all Boeing orders https://t.co/z2EhUDmptZ"
X Link 2025-04-15T08:22Z 35.3K followers, 242.6K engagements

"Friday witnessed the biggest one day move in the NT$. KRW and SGD also moved big. Are we witnessing the reversal of the [----] Asian crisis - a period of massive transfer of purchasing power from the West to the East Clearly the Trump admin no longer wants US consumer to be the consumer of last resort. So what happens next Either Asia steps up to the plate or the world enters depression. This currency move points to the former"
X Link 2025-05-03T23:39Z 35.3K followers, 276.8K engagements

"Given the deterioration in the US-China relationship few people would likely have bet that the Hang Seng would rise by 22pc YTD. Yet here we are In the following piece unlocked for the general public I answer the most frequent questions we have been fielding from clients around this unfolding HK bull market. https://research.gavekal.com/article/a-qa-on-hong-kong/ https://research.gavekal.com/article/a-qa-on-hong-kong/"
X Link 2025-06-05T09:56Z 35.3K followers, 49.9K engagements

"One of my big themes since JD Vances Munich speech has been that the days in which commodity prices are roughly the same across the world are essentially gone. The reason the price of oil was roughly the same in South Africa and South Korea is that the US Navy guaranteed safety across the worlds ocean for free. To the extent that Munich signaled that the US was done providing such a free service it stood to reason that commodity prices could start diverging massively across the globe (and that everyone should build up more inventories). Still I did not expect that the US would willingly"
X Link 2025-07-08T19:23Z 35.3K followers, 163.3K engagements

"So it looks like I got hacked on this account. In case there was any doubt I did not suddenly become a shitcoin promoter"
X Link 2025-09-22T21:51Z 35.3K followers, 16.4K engagements

"@RnaudBertrand Dear Arnaud You missed the most obvious: Will Chinas bone glue be used to keep tracks of your movements and listen to your conversations And also How refusing to use bone glue will hurt your social credit system score"
X Link 2025-09-29T04:22Z 35.3K followers, 511.1K engagements

"Great post by @radigancarter. When inflation accelerates two things immediately go down: bond prices and public morals. Inflation is the great destabiliser of healthy societies. Thinking more about this I dont even have a good way to fix it. Its not like I trust any of our politicians to fix it. I had hopes for Trump. When I almost got killed questioned a lot of things in my life. Similar stories from others. Thought with him almost getting shot Thinking more about this I dont even have a good way to fix it. Its not like I trust any of our politicians to fix it. I had hopes for Trump. When I"
X Link 2025-11-09T08:23Z 35.3K followers, 25.9K engagements

"Very much looking forward to catching up with the great @VincentDeluard in Miami in 48h I will be speaking with my friend @gave_vincent about China's investment outlook in Miami on Thursday. Registration details below πŸ‘‡ https://t.co/Ev1KPo9F01 I will be speaking with my friend @gave_vincent about China's investment outlook in Miami on Thursday. Registration details below πŸ‘‡ https://t.co/Ev1KPo9F01"
X Link 2025-11-11T23:38Z 35.3K followers, 56.5K engagements

"When I sit down with my good friend @vincentdeluard in Miami tomorrow I plan to mostly talk about the end of the US-China Cold War and what that means for global financial markets (basically it allows China to follow far more reflationary policies). I published a piece on this this morning and asked the editors to remove the paywall - feel free to forward https://research.gavekal.com/article/the-wrong-question-to-ask/ Very much looking forward to catching up with the great @VincentDeluard in Miami in 48h https://research.gavekal.com/article/the-wrong-question-to-ask/ Very much looking forward"
X Link 2025-11-12T11:51Z 35.3K followers, 108.7K engagements

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@gave_vincent
/creator/twitter::gave_vincent