#  @deepvalueco IRResistible CAGRs🍁 IRResistible CAGRs🍁 posts on X about inflation, canada, rates, money the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1056516759124090880/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +179% - [--] Month [-------] +429% - [--] Months [---------] +1,761% - [--] Year [---------] -9.30% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1056516759124090880/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -15% - [--] Months [---] +74% - [--] Year [---] -26% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1056516759124090880/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] no change - [--] Month [-----] +0.33% - [--] Months [-----] +4.40% - [--] Year [-----] +4.40% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1056516759124090880/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [countries](/list/countries) [stocks](/list/stocks) [currencies](/list/currencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [us election](/list/us-election) **Social topic influence** [inflation](/topic/inflation), [canada](/topic/canada), [rates](/topic/rates), [money](/topic/money), [$csuto](/topic/$csuto), [debt](/topic/debt), [$iiil](/topic/$iiil), [stocks](/topic/stocks) #3446, [gdp](/topic/gdp), [acquisition](/topic/acquisition) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@brownmarubozu](/creator/undefined) [@alphafortuna10](/creator/undefined) [@nestbetter](/creator/undefined) [@lundeenne](/creator/undefined) [@m3kuso](/creator/undefined) [@cdinewsletter](/creator/undefined) [@mwgjamie](/creator/undefined) [@igetredpilled](/creator/undefined) [@cj0pp3l](/creator/undefined) [@invertedfragil1](/creator/undefined) [@olivierr](/creator/undefined) [@rodbhar](/creator/undefined) [@savaninvestor](/creator/undefined) [@fvrcapital](/creator/undefined) [@aagresearch](/creator/undefined) [@chrisinmontreal](/creator/undefined) [@pythiar](/creator/undefined) [@compcapto](/creator/undefined) [@stocktalk416](/creator/undefined) [@fred03288871](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Walmart, Inc. (WMT)](/topic/$wmt) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [BorgWarner Inc. (BWA)](/topic/$bwa) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [GM (GM)](/topic/$gm) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) [4 (FOUR)](/topic/$four) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "PBOC injecting 510Billion Yuan in [--] days FED ups overnight repo to 125B Negative Yeilding Euro and Japanese Bonds S&P near all time high . Glad we're all caught up" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1187193786838986752) 2019-10-24T02:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$U.TO $URPTF priced like #uranium were about $24" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1248405300048097284) 2020-04-10T00:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I'm seeing a bit of confusion about how Uranium Participation Corp works $U.TO $URPTF I hope this thread helps" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1248658632063025154) 2020-04-10T17:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "UPC NCIB. Good for shareholders ( $U.TO $URPTF) http://news.uraniumparticipation.com/releases/entry/122586 http://news.uraniumparticipation.com/releases/entry/122586" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1250010597292412928) 2020-04-14T10:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The irony of the uranium market is that sentiment contributes to a self reinforcing loop in the short term. There are numerous reasons that amplify this effect. This thread is about the physical #uranium funds. $YCA & $U.To $URPTF" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1290661762589655041) 2020-08-04T14:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$TSLA Tesla now has a bigger market cap that $KO Coca-Cola Co & $PEP PepsiCo. Combined Or if you prefer Bigger than $WMT Wal-Mart" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1298695936269574147) 2020-08-26T18:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I'm looking at $NIO and dang total deliveries [-----]. Market Cap : $33.78B That's a valuation of $579k per car sold" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1318329344528351232) 2020-10-19T23:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@ArpatSood + copper" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1362930752590131201) 2021-02-20T01:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Probably more relevant than what the fed says they're going to do" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1405238977603514368) 2021-06-16T19:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Just saw a poll that made me lose faith in. Everything "Which of these stocks would you prefer to put all you're money in" $FB (3%) $GOOG (11%) $AMZN (16%) $AAPL (18%) $TSLA (51%)" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1410409044204998661) 2021-07-01T01:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Anyone got any future multibaggers (Preferably profitable now or in near future)" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1468948134038487044) 2021-12-09T14:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This chart is a mix of SPUT w/ATM running & illiquid penny stock. Yet it's not even close" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1488264994638766085) 2022-01-31T21:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Me when even David Rosenberg suggests that the Canadian housing bubble can implode and leave Alberta unscathed" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1524380475917230093) 2022-05-11T13:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "For someone starting an all weather portfolio in Canada. Top of my head I got something like this Are there any glaring omissions" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1551953317324021760) 2022-07-26T15:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Chapter [--] on 11-11" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1591090625935708161) 2022-11-11T15:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Open up all you want but China's days of +5% GDP growth are likely behind it. It's been declining for a long time and demographics don't support that re-accelerating" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1604508644288118785) 2022-12-18T16:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Druckenmiller Q4 new buys include $NVDA $LEN $DE $OXY $T $AMD $PH $VALE Big Adds: $LLY $LW $META $CVE $OPCH Overweight consumer discretionary and energy while buying semis is how I prepare for recessions too" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1625868561041301506) 2023-02-15T14:44Z [----] followers, 28.8K engagements "Joc O'Rourke ( $MOS) comments on potash" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1628863836403933184) 2023-02-23T21:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "OMG Druck bought more $NVDA" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1658225257587589126) 2023-05-15T21:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@lundeen_ne Can't really speak to everywhere (I mean credit Suisse did die too) but less banks and different banking system/regulation and risk/duration management probably played rolls CAN is probably a good contrast for study. Very few banks & low term on borrow/ loans" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1658261763278643200) 2023-05-16T00:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Wrote some thoughts after a day of Dream-ing (AGMs) $DRM.TO" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1667904232425414664) 2023-06-11T14:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I got $DRM's $D.UN decision wrong. Was surprised they came away owning a smaller % thought a flat % or increase were [--] most probable. Makes the whole process a bit more puzzling honestly" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1671248749031755776) 2023-06-20T20:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The CAD is up 3% in June I know nothing. but A few months ago people were arguing a weakening CAD would prolong inflation as a reason to hike. So" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1672575333877309440) 2023-06-24T12:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Not so fun fact: Last time (90s) interest rates stayed mostly this high in Canada purpose built rental starts in Toronto went to [--] for a decade. (Condos also declined) But really they had already declined by 90% since the 60s due to high rates and rent controls" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1672626120615755780) 2023-06-24T15:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Ah yes silver in [----] the super bubble caused by the speculative fever of those ultra low 15% interest rates" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1673288052205142016) 2023-06-26T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "People: housing has been resilient Housing: supply -33%" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1673508269766131712) 2023-06-27T01:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This isn't even my biggest problem with points like this. They're just based on stories not logic. Like is inflation still rising What are rates doing to supply How much of the current hikes will only be felt gradually as mortgages reset etc" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1673509615223406598) 2023-06-27T01:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I really don't understand the $TMO and $DHR bullishness. 12% ROE companies trading at 40x & 30x normalized earnings. The COVID excess ROEs have mean reverted but the P/B hasn't. Fine companies but should be flat for [--] years if ROE sticks to co's 15y average" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1674718106428514307) 2023-06-30T09:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Gotta say if I'm running a RE company here in Canada I'm pushing more maturities out to 7-10 years. Can get debt below cap rates there and be set to pay it down. Protect vs BoC. Keep cash @ 5% as hedge for lower rates vs paying 5.25" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1674733276093661186) 2023-06-30T10:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "If you get the continued inflation they're fine from higher NOIs and appreciate if rates take valuations lower (caps higher) you have capital &/or can make money on interest spread" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1674735171822551042) 2023-06-30T11:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A bunch of people who I really respect seem to like $TMO these days but I still very much don't get it. Looks like a $350 stock to me every time I look at it" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1677385623361953797) 2023-07-07T18:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@recursivecycles Honestly they should just lever up their assets with that 4% 10y debt they spoke about park it in 5.25% 6M t-bills and wait for BoC to hike until development goes to [--] and rents 🚀 Stupid but flips rate exposure" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1677859252767973382) 2023-07-09T01:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@ronmortgageguy @CDInewsletter This is an evil premise when we're pumping in a million people a year and the labor force should be expanding by 60.5k per month just due to that" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1677983942383632384) 2023-07-09T10:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "It's quite scary how few people are discussing all the ways that rate hikes create inflation (even excluding Mortgage Interest)" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1677985881251086340) 2023-07-09T10:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Like sure you kill families on the demand side and throw people out on the street. But you also raise the investment hurdle for supply requiring higher prices to add the same supply. Econ [---] less supply = higher price" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1677992655249195012) 2023-07-09T11:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So if you're a country like Canada who adds 290k people per quarter and you're raising rates to stop inflation that's primarily rent (excluding MIC here). But you end up shutting down construction (ie [------] jobs per month) you'd be making it worse. To magically fix it" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1677994219124801536) 2023-07-09T11:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Can't complete a thread like this without these Next month the CPI-Ex MIC will show 2.0% (although short term trough) Every month from Aug to Feb we have 0.1% inflation from MIC set to roll off of core inflation. We just need time without further damage" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1678000823853367298) 2023-07-09T11:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@CDInewsletter There's a weird 0.38% from Food in restaurants and 0.25% from tobacco/alcohol/Cannabis too that I'm not sure why we care about. That plus Mortgage costs being half of our inflation is wild to me" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1678040603085479938) 2023-07-09T13:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Goods deflation continues. Lowest prices since April 2021" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1678534749420232708) 2023-07-10T23:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Canadian policy: We bankrupt one old Canadian because our economy is too strong & replace them with one new Canadian because our economy is too weak. That's not the central banks' problem. They just create inflation to fight inflation. It's disgusting" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1678541501943500801) 2023-07-10T23:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Industrial company from a few months ago explained why higher rates force higher prices. Policy keeps ignoring the supply side" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1679231462036455424) 2023-07-12T20:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Still not sure why this is going so poorly. US homebuilders are printing mid 20s ROEs if Canadian house prices are 'so high' shouldn't that mean decent profit Alberta & oil rocking + housing there too Vacancy at [--] year lows" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1682489353266708480) 2023-07-22T13:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DrJStrategy I disagree I think some of the pandemic response measures also helped cause inflation. (Handing out money/paying people not to work)" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1684504902427373570) 2023-07-27T10:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Core inflation is 3.2% (including 1% of mortgage costs). Core CPI was -ve MoM Average mortgage interest paid is 225-250 bps below market. When we get to cutting we'll still be restrictive & MIC will reverse. Meaning we probably won't be able to find 'inflation'" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1685596162387025920) 2023-07-30T10:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Core inflation doesn't have the same base effects cliff that non-core does. Probably low 2s by October data. +30% of which will be mortgage interest. But it won't get below target until at least March/April" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1685657567966474240) 2023-07-30T14:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Does China enter deflation I say yes. Fun fact they've only loosened police for the last [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1688940527142490113) 2023-08-08T15:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Food still running above 8% Imo this likely touches [--] or negative within [--] months. 1.3% to 0% Could coincide with Mortgage costs going from 0.8% to -0.2% Inflation could easily be in the 0.Xs with rates dropping making the deflation more exaggerated. Some fx offset" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1689110993647910912) 2023-08-09T03:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@MananaInvesting Next we need for the market to decide that real estate isn't going to [--] because of interest rates" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1690512422241501184) 2023-08-12T23:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Buffett buys homebuilders and twitter can't stop talking about Burry's tail hedge" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1691390176885358592) 2023-08-15T10:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Meat price inflation is the 5th largest contributor to Canadian inflation at +7.7% Year over Year" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1691923120255386013) 2023-08-16T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "My suggestion is home prices fall 3% incomes rise 10% and interest rates fall 350bps. Over a few years Also we reduce taxes & permitting times Then affordability is far better than pre-covid" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1692808962565959829) 2023-08-19T08:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Is this a sign $drm.to" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1694100997633675671) 2023-08-22T21:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "To all those who have drank the central bank cool-aid let me ask how nuking the economy is supposed to fix supply problems How will it fix things that use international prices How does shutting down real estate development fix rent inflation Pseudoscience insanity" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1694307496431677781) 2023-08-23T11:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Worse is that inflation is coming down and would anyways but the inability to track data in real time and understand the counter-impact central bank actions are having is destroying people" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1694307498352615606) 2023-08-23T11:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Deflation but CB's still chasing their tail. $FL and all retail. This is what models look like when pricing goes from +10% YY to negative. The Op-models collapse. https://t.co/FuL1A5yRiy $FL and all retail. This is what models look like when pricing goes from +10% YY to negative. The Op-models collapse. https://t.co/FuL1A5yRiy" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1694311881693880719) 2023-08-23T11:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Brazil's next policy rate decision(s) will be interesting They were first to cut with a bigger than expected one but now due to base effects inflation will temporarily jump above target. PPI is imploding (-12% YoY & 2.5%MoM) Monthly CPI is tame Real rates still excessive" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1694675423618031853) 2023-08-24T11:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@greentardscycle You say that but I think US inflation peaking when FF was at 1% probably shows that rates don't/didn't do what everyone thinks (and SELIC may be even more overboard this time)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1694680254671962369) 2023-08-24T11:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@FIVRE604 Supply will decline less capital will be available for future builds and unit size will decrease too. But yes it sounds more sustainable" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1695468642819862601) 2023-08-26T16:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Lots of talk about XX year Amortization of Canadian mortgages but mortgage delinquency is at 2/3 of [----] levels while the banks build their loan loss provisions" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1696685479255515140) 2023-08-30T00:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Sounds good. But. "Balance the budget to bring down inflation" is 90% political nonsense. And the 'how' of the above is a huge question. Country wide austerity = recession or worse. Country Balance sheet company/individual balance sheet" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1696859082127286511) 2023-08-30T12:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Wow. I mean this isn't a small company. $FMG.ax new deck out as CEO and CFO exit https://t.co/4clu768fvD https://t.co/FgrQs4PTMw $FMG.ax new deck out as CEO and CFO exit https://t.co/4clu768fvD https://t.co/FgrQs4PTMw" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1697767700813029812) 2023-09-02T00:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Canada Inflation: Over 2% is Food + Mortgage Interest Cost. Food could easily go to [--] or negative MIC could easily roll to [--] But I think rent gets worse (mostly driven by rates) and the negative of energy also rolls off. Not sure how much more minor inputs can deflate" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1697986967307239905) 2023-09-02T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The inflation is now coming from damage (supply) as is the deflation (demand). Further most things are international prices and damaging the economy + currency doesn't help The whole thing is completely insane" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1697986968435535909) 2023-09-02T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "All of this is an extrapolation of current policy at this point in time. (Based on higher for longer) If rates change (as I certainly believe they should and probably will at some point in the middle) the picture changes" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1697989955379745216) 2023-09-02T15:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I expect housing affordability to remain extremely low as demand drastically exceeds supply. Rents with probably be near the top of the CPI as they need to be to incentivize development at these rates" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1697991424002711561) 2023-09-02T15:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It's incredibly obvious in capital heavy industries (whether that's real estate industrial mining or financing a power plant). That higher interest rates are inflationary because they require higher rents/margins/prices to produce the same supply" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1698329640606077139) 2023-09-03T13:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@he_mowz 1: oversupply vs demand like having the [--] inflation that we did 2: this is talking about the inventive cost of incremental supply. You still need the demand to warrant the capital investment" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1698331242188489185) 2023-09-03T13:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@PythiaR I agree that Canada doesn't work at these interest rates. But you can also buy a brand new [--] bedroom [---] bath 1500sq ft house for 450K near Calgary" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1699824006541476192) 2023-09-07T16:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Someone needs to ask Tiff why the deflationary impact on spending from this artificial inflation is different from the impact on spending of say higher Food/Gas prices. (It's actually worse because this inflation doesn't incentivize supply)" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1700120170570662107) 2023-09-08T12:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "He might say something about withdrawing money from the system. to which I'd follow up by asking what the impact is on the supply side of removing their capital and ability to produce enough supply to cap/drive down prices" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1700120172089000185) 2023-09-08T12:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "The obvious example of creating inflation via scarcity is in housing/rents (surprise surprise one of the few remaining sticky areas) housing isn't optional and demand destruction there = homelessness" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1700120173959958820) 2023-09-08T12:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$LNR.TO still sitting there at 5x EBIT" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1700270207980519562) 2023-09-08T22:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Canadian [--] year bonds yield something like 3.65% people also expect that to fall in a rate cutting environment. People would also expect a positive sloping un-inverted yield curve. Ok so.Where's the short end going if/when rates decline" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1700569947674460631) 2023-09-09T18:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@GaelanHanlon I remember a book referencing in the 90s auto parts trading at 10x earnings. In the late 90s with high rates they traded at 3x book. And yes I believe AG & skyjack are probably worth closer to 10x EBITDA (perhaps not at every point in the cycle)" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1700629298409783387) 2023-09-09T21:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@adequateryan @DividendGrowth Same my second thought was something that was in the business of being adaptable. Would prefer a less levered BAM for this but the AM arm is probably resilient and the structure of the debt is decent" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1700654074733920667) 2023-09-09T23:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@alphafortuna10 @NonObviously Riocan referenced a similar yield in one of their presentations . which at this interest rate is similarly a no-go" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1701992158985597401) 2023-09-13T16:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Comp_Cap_TO It doesn't even offset [--] rate hike. but it's better than nothing" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1702474316909048017) 2023-09-15T00:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@ronh_pm They should get a raise in line with the market assuming productivity is in line. that's NOT what they're asking for. not even close" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1702764461331763449) 2023-09-15T19:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@marketplunger1 "Core" inflation is used because it excludes highly cyclical components of food and energy because the data there will be rapidly out of date Now however the biggest component of inflation is shelter in OER where the data is lagged to the extent of being useless" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1702769184575299628) 2023-09-15T19:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BobMarl42515340 It's not a free market tho. The central bank literally sets short rates AND the free-er end (long end) is telling you that even with duration risk 3.7% is good enough for them. If [---] is true for 10y.what's [--] Plus again you're free to not own it if the R/R isn't good enough" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1703055119158296843) 2023-09-16T14:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I wrote some thoughts about the Canadian stock market and economy. Touched on a variety of topics from banks to some commodities bonds inflation RE food and immigration etc" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1703109542723121325) 2023-09-16T18:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Your regular reminder that more than half of US Core inflation is based on data so lagged that it's irrelevant for decision making" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1703364681681740090) 2023-09-17T11:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ausstockchick Don't worry Canada is growing [----] people per day and our government just hyped up the construction of [----] units. so we can handle your overflow" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1703385397974241612) 2023-09-17T12:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Looney got hit in August and "All items excluding gasoline was 0.1" If gas declines and looney strengthens CPI can come in soft in September [---] then big base effects in Oct. Sept [---] Oct [---] Nov [---] Dec [---] Below [--] in April" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1705278758859464887) 2023-09-22T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Sentiment check" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1705341073306882368) 2023-09-22T21:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@todd_ramos I believe this is referencing Canada. CAD banks generally have less duration exposure. Funding & lending here generally rolls in shorter terms" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1705376280022286818) 2023-09-23T00:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Retail sales +2% YoY By my math after 4% inflation & 3% population growth. real retail sales per capita are: dEfInItElY oVeRhEaTiNg" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1705400061507588479) 2023-09-23T01:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Astervox42 US gets 90% of the discussion but is closer to 10% of global production. Canada should be able to grow Brazil Guyana Namibia Plenty of places are holding back too" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1705581997412733016) 2023-09-23T13:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@StockTalk416 @o_li_vi_err This makes no sense to me If you're bearish/concerned office structure all the debt as office/asset mortgage. convert what you can office to Resi keep DIR if office busts you still have +$500M value" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1706702965128454260) 2023-09-26T16:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@StockTalk416 @o_li_vi_err Whereas if you're bullish office you sell the DIR and buyback units 'lever up' on office exposure" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1706703231059910795) 2023-09-26T16:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Netherlands in French is Pays bas. translates to Country Low. now has among the lowest inflation rates in the world.coincidence I think not" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1707932381372408210) 2023-09-30T01:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@panaceacures Interesting I didn't know that do you know what the major differences are" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1708063776342171951) 2023-09-30T10:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "People mocking him for this & the implementation would be complex but If they restrict it to 1st time buyers &/or new builds the gov could take a haircut on capital as the market funds new supply in a way that's affordable for buyers. This isn't crazy like some other takes" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1708155711593554062) 2023-09-30T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In the last [----] years long term interest rates have gone to 13% once. but since everyone remembers it it feels almost normal" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1709003681234846059) 2023-10-03T00:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It's amazing that the yield curve is still inverted and people are talking about lack of demand for risk free yield & 13% long end rates" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1709151861473702096) 2023-10-03T10:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "If/when the yield curve uninverts I will start listening to the "nobody wants treasuries" arguments. Not prior. By the way the US fiscal isn't beyond repair (yet) plenty of income tax hikes to catch Canada and the EU can still balance that out" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1709512561157128501) 2023-10-04T10:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Homelessness Explodes In Canada as interest rates make housing supply uneconomic. I don't want an "I told you so" I want this fixed. Instead it's going to get worse. Thanks Tiff" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1710606508700946724) 2023-10-07T10:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@damaaster Ha wanted to tag big [--] first. No real order there. I approached it without expectations but found the results interesting. But slightly bias confirming" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1710752840870695120) 2023-10-07T20:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "What is the point of our ridiculous censorship laws if we're going to allow public support of terrorist organizations in broad daylight. Wasn't that their one job" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1711201604588748989) 2023-10-09T02:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Things that make you go hmmm Why indeed Maybe Egypt knows that many of the people in Gaza have become radicalized terrorists & need to protect their own citizens" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1711692957152170167) 2023-10-10T10:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@AhmedRahman86 1: most people from Mexico are allowed into the United States whenever they want just not to stay independently. 2: The point was people blame Israel for defending its border (because they're Jews) but not Egypt who do the same. 3: A terror group has a majority government" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1711697347355292121) 2023-10-10T10:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BoC decision looks like it'll come down to the wire will be heavily influenced by September inflation data" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1711904557494628402) 2023-10-11T00:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ""Open Air Prison" justification for terrorism Corrupt rich terrorists keeping all the resources isn't Israeli oppression" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1713559261404430397) 2023-10-15T14:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I for one was shocked at how quickly the "open air prior" narrative jumped to "This bombing destroyed our beautiful neighborhood in Gaza with ice cream shops & restaurants" . Which doesn't sound like an open air prison to me. Without people questioning the narrative" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1713562021944287563) 2023-10-15T14:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Was in discussion around import pricing (niche product). Sounds like there's room for more deflation stemming from freight price collapse. Inventory less mobile & price being rethought. Surprised it hadn't happened yet" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1714035298332561562) 2023-10-16T21:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@dylangrice @GaryBla89681788 As to your "bigger" point. The last Israel - Lebanon conflict brought so much destruction to Lebanon that they lost the opinion that "death to Israel at any cost" is worth it. Not a good answer but not necessarily a never ending loop" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1714250362469638160) 2023-10-17T12:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The craziest part of this Canadian CPI report is that the 15% decline in retail gasoline prices wasn't included. Inflation is dead" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1714259149968605460) 2023-10-17T12:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Canadian Core inflation now sits at 3.1% If you exclude rate hikes it'd be something like 2.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1714273403023110620) 2023-10-17T13:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Canadian housing starts improved to 270k pace So all the way up to [--] unit per [----] people added" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1714680386314219554) 2023-10-18T16:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Negative Retail sales growth. I'm out of sarcastic things to say" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1715362671569076452) 2023-10-20T13:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@WSB_redditor @PierrePoilievre Not exactly (Desjardins EQB Tangerine home trust etc) but even if true that doesn't mean anything. Mortgage rates are lower in Canada than the US. Less concern about bank runs too. Less duration risk. Etc we don't need hundreds of banks to all mimic the BoC anyways" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1715720358177763705) 2023-10-21T13:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "It's wildly irresponsible to believe (or publish) anything that Palestinian Health officials claim" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1717000375142654164) 2023-10-25T02:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Say what you want about REITs / Office the $AP.UN insiders disagree" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1717144439024464100) 2023-10-25T11:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "BoC forecasts an average inflation rate of 0.3% MoM into the middle of next year" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1717222045732254102) 2023-10-25T16:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So $AP.UN kicks off another REIT earnings season of" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1717509510258950255) 2023-10-26T11:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Most of $WFG's earnings unsurprisingly came from the EWP segment whose price had been stronger than lumber. Lumber was better than Q2 Pulp was less bad. Costs are relevantly lower YoY" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1717511158838542370) 2023-10-26T11:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "US inflation if BLS shelter data wasn't incomprehensibly lagged = 2.0%" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1718634748006826085) 2023-10-29T14:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "In my opinion $CM.TO (CIBC) was the best Canadian bank from [----] to [----]. It had the highest ROE in [--] or those [--] years (measured July to June)" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1718702518664831390) 2023-10-29T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@GadSaad Heart in the right place. Due diligence. perhaps lacking" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1719519823527379213) 2023-11-01T01:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This was more than [--] weeks ago. At some point if you're staying in Northern Gaza you're willing yourself to be a human shield. And if you're injured from a tunnel collapse sinkhole that's exactly what you were" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1719528988106735878) 2023-11-01T01:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I didn't have "CAD surges as more cuts get priced in" on my bingo card" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1720515585648296224) 2023-11-03T18:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@alphafortuna10 Preferred shares are equity not debt" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1720560842247131634) 2023-11-03T21:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Development yields matter. Who knew" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1720602322789662970) 2023-11-04T00:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Reading between the lines from real estate guys this is precisely the case. If the Yield curve hadn't inverted "fighting the BoC" things would have broken worse on the RE supply side 100bps ago" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1722276703861612931) 2023-11-08T15:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Pauls leaving as CEO of $3.5B MC REIT to be CEO of $100M market cap REIT" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1722337548981211585) 2023-11-08T19:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I was/am skeptical of the Dura-Shiloh acquisition but this Mobex acquisition sounds like it has pretty good prospects. $LNR.TO Industrial still strong mobility still weak" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1722379935648522596) 2023-11-08T22:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@jayvas @CJ0pp3l How have they avoided the broader RE-pocalypse in public RE recently Is their valuation still ok vs peers" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1723305726599123371) 2023-11-11T11:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@jayvas @CJ0pp3l It looked like a solid company. I was only cautious on price when the landscape has significant discounts to their book while this trades at book despite the same interest rate risk story. Interestingly often the non-reits trade at discounts to the REITs" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1723311038206972047) 2023-11-11T12:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@alphafortuna10 @VanIsleInvestor On one hand sure. On the other it's only 'dangerously leveraged' if the assumption is office has further to decline or in some way further deterioration is likely. Otherwise it's buying cheap real estate with adequate leverage" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1725508184717025376) 2023-11-17T13:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@nachkari really depends where you start. but I mean our lowest tax bracket is higher than Alberta/sask/ontario's highest. (plus higher sales tax) and what we get for that is more language laws / discrimination more stringent lockdowns crap roads/medical wait times / any english📉📉" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1725946739184619866) 2023-11-18T18:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@MikePMoffatt Ok but alternatively since [----] rents have grown at 4.3% CAGR. Which is much less dramatic and consider how much some other things increased isn't excessive. Wages for instance grew 4.8% this year & 5.6% last year" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1727038252660773150) 2023-11-21T18:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This would be a fair point if the Canadian market didn't suck. As is for something of that scale there (unfortunately) aren't enough quality options. (That's before opening the permitting can of worms)" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1728062015850037611) 2023-11-24T14:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@BourbeauChris Unless they drastically improved the business environment and company mix in Canada simultaneously it could be a very bad idea. But the fixed income side I have less of an issue with them pushing to increase Canada" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1728089599417733503) 2023-11-24T16:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BourbeauChris But YCC is an odd point of discussion in a market where the BoC has struggled for years to get the long end higher without the desired success. (Thankfully)" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1728089920726609970) 2023-11-24T16:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@StockTalk416 No but the guided for some growth too & this could easily be suggesting either cautious approach or could come through with tailwind" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1729548268223279366) 2023-11-28T17:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "US retail sales more in line with Walmart earnings than 5% GDP growth" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1729857022579933419) 2023-11-29T13:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Si vous vivez au Qubec depuis assez longtemps vous avez dj vu un Franais refuser de vous parler anglais parce qu'il n'aime pas les Anglais. ou vous. Cet outrage est tellement stupide" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1730404055548043395) 2023-12-01T01:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Unemployed persons in Canada up another [-----] to [----] Million Vs in January of [----] when we had [-----] Million. (More than any time between Nov [----] & Feb 2020) But keep telling yourself that we need to loosen the labor market to fight inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1730596123008549303) 2023-12-01T14:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Unemployment rate now at 5.8% low was 5.0% 6% likely soon. We should be cutting" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1730597128206987736) 2023-12-01T14:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Half good. BUT [--]. Land = barely relevant point [--]. QE is an irrelevant scapegoat. We've been doing the reverse for years (no mention) also painfully ignores interest rate component (maybe because he complained they're too low in the past) & ignores Covid-flation" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1731016035552100426) 2023-12-02T18:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "IMHO this guy doesn't understand "money" in a different way from the other candidates. Probably a different kind of concerning. He approaches money like a Bitcoin maxi. Dangerous for a government" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1731016036768493605) 2023-12-02T18:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Shrinking the balance sheet reducing spending saving money paying down debt less money growth earning more with your money. Etc Those sound good for the individual but are extremely difficult for a government to attempt because there's someone on the other side" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1731017184137093438) 2023-12-02T18:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Reducing spending = firing people Paying down debt = eliminating someone asset Stopping money supply growth = preventing economic growth But yes I realize we need to move in this direction incrementally because the alternative is unsustainable" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1731018057160540425) 2023-12-02T18:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "From a distance watching some of these reits has been a painful spectacle of shareholder appeasement chasing. oh retail don't want that. sell it low and move the capital into office etc. oh Office don't want that. oh debt service is higher & prices are lower 'sell' low" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1731064619333046348) 2023-12-02T21:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "You know week [--] where I was getting pissed off at the UN schools feeding hateful propaganda and saying the problem is deeper than most suggest. It remains a deep problem that I don't have an answer to. Will things improve without Hamas Probably Enough I fear to speculate" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1731287881803583507) 2023-12-03T12:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A reminder that I am a legendary contra on currencies. It should be impossible to be this consistently wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1731291018333401551) 2023-12-03T12:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@nachkari Little to nothing short term. But the mortgage rates are only falling because we're pricing in eventual cuts (which comes first chicken or egg) cause with 5% across the curve we'd all be quite f*****. (In that sense imo big error to be this high to begin with)" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1732126490878455987) 2023-12-05T19:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@o_li_vi_err I often question why I don't own this one" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1732136046786126114) 2023-12-05T20:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TSXDivStock Manji had unlucky timing in addition to a few mistakes. I think their strategy is pointing in the right direction but the timing and asset mix wasn't perfect" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1732486064915247154) 2023-12-06T19:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TSXDivStock I mean looking at the REITs today so few are arbing the NAV discount to add value from the disconnect. As much of a no brainer as it seems most aren't" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1732486773073154286) 2023-12-06T19:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TSXDivStock Didn't edge point recently announce a 10% stake And I mean on both who cares they chase price/sentiment anyways. (Either way great to ARB at a bigger spread) Basically all of the 'bad management' has been 'office' or rates (perhaps expressed via Cominar) imo" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1732492831783010558) 2023-12-06T20:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@NonObviously @TSXDivStock I don't know. I do think that converting assets to discounted shares (of own REIT & peers) makes a lot of sense (absent activism). But it also sets them apart as "hard to measure" especially in down markets" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1732495531102888354) 2023-12-06T20:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Slightly sad to see $EQB.TO guide for more dividend growth than book value growth" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1732914053620617613) 2023-12-08T00:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@CJ0pp3l @fhoro I can't claim to know enough to comment on all companies but some at the bottom don't seem entirely surprising for various reasons from odd capital allocation decisions to dual class share & management that owns enough to not answer to anyone type of thing. Not always bad cos" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1733435648512581715) 2023-12-09T10:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@CJ0pp3l @fhoro CU ATCO controled FFH Prem doing his own thing STLC bought a football team DND not great employee ratings /debt issues BRP dual class share RCI . Shop SBC NXE high mgmt pay and promotion spend BIR leverage/ dividend strategy GooS/tlry idk but not great performance" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1733438852520427631) 2023-12-09T10:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Hanukkah celebrates [----] years ago when Jews returned to the temple they built in Jerusalem Christmas celebrates the birth of a man born Jewish in the modern "West Bank" [----] years ago I want to wish everyone the best this holiday season" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1733487224434360671) 2023-12-09T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@_ForceMajeure_1 It's certainly not the same for every company but so far most of the strategic results have been similar. I've seen small REITs in Canada with 5y terms & large caps in US with 10+ year terms acting the same way" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1733838596237373527) 2023-12-10T13:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Astervox42 How does this change banks needing to pay 6% for [--] year GICs" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1733871531028038043) 2023-12-10T15:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@PaulAndreola It's a sign of too much inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1734325921048379703) 2023-12-11T21:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "CAD bond yields don't look like they've broke Dec lows like US ones on Fed news" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1735019640525300173) 2023-12-13T19:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Because I'll be honest they look about as useful as trained monkeys. Every single thing they say seems to ignore everything except a headline number" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1735739186697687135) 2023-12-15T19:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It's almost like they believe there's a dual mandate of target inflation & have as high a rate as possible. (Which is imo stupid but plenty of people seem to think that's the ideal scenario.)" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1735740817854075130) 2023-12-15T19:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Even ignoring the tone commentary and sarcasm those are incredibly problematic numbers" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1735792519093362750) 2023-12-15T22:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I'm sure government numbers are wrong but it's not like our housing sector is particularly close to covering this" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1737257215734554791) 2023-12-19T23:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Comp_Cap_TO True but will that portion of the number go negative Something needs to give" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1737461816677077401) 2023-12-20T13:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "With rents here and term yields here the economics start working again and rents don't need to inflate as much further. Will the market save itself from the BoC driven inflation/cost of living crisis We'll see" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1737479009762468182) 2023-12-20T14:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I also like the more branded higher margin portfolio acquisitions as they provide a quality that's certainly not in the mid single digit earnings multiple" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1737803818606145833) 2023-12-21T11:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I also like that they're using more of their balance sheet capacity & think it'll increase growth and ROE metrics" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1737804226233839799) 2023-12-21T11:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Anyways I like the acquisition and think it'll add value growth quality brand power stability EPS margin FCF etc I think it'll be accretive and look like good value in a few years. But I don't think that necessarily beats a buyback at recent prices" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1737806862051848697) 2023-12-21T12:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "It was a bad year. I underperformed by a lot. Key mistakes: Large positions missed guidance by alarming amounts. I believed management and I didn't risk manage. I got rates wrong. In different forms. Certain recoveries I was hoping for didn't happen. 1/x" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1741433279209787845) 2023-12-31T12:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Nick_Wellings There are a few I've mentioned publicly in the past Auto parts: Martinrea MRE (and Linamar LNR still gets treated as that even though it's decently diversified) Lumber I'm in [--] of the big [--] in Canada Real estate DRM and some of the REITs that got hit big like that AX is acting" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1741436523029938513) 2023-12-31T12:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I sped past an interesting point about the MacDon acquisition. (Interesting because the stock performance since would suggest it wasn't great) Bought at 1.2B 600M sales then 16% OE margin Interest rate call it 3-4%" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1741464898893226388) 2023-12-31T14:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "OE was 96M Amortization of intangibles 15M Interest 48M Ok starting point Became post sales 2x [---] OE Almost 13% net OE yield. On something that has grown at a 15% rate That doesn't seem terrible" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1741464901053304953) 2023-12-31T14:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@GeorgeH54822093 @Brad96969282 Carbon Capture or Carbon Credits" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1742185597165257196) 2024-01-02T14:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "In today's edition of: "Nobody knows what's going on" Canada adds [---] jobs last month (less than expected) While the unemployment rate stays flat at 5.8% (which is also lower than expected) [---] jobs. that's too much winning right Tiff" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1743272302530158784) 2024-01-05T14:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "West Fraser $WFG probably sitting at 3x normalized EBITDA. Pretty interesting for a company willing to push the buybacks" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1744719927217619064) 2024-01-09T13:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@dumpstercap @BitMoreLeverage I won't pretend to know all the ins and outs of the comp. but. P/B is similar yet more of IFP's BS is invested in capacity vs CFP which has been holding lots of cash for a while. production capacity is pretty close for 2x MC partially due to pulp in cfp which has been soft" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1744844788359102727) 2024-01-09T22:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@dumpstercap @BitMoreLeverage Maybe on EV/Capacity but again torque is probably better measured by market cap/capacity. Part of my annoyance with CFP has been sitting on a billion in cash while the stock lingers at .6x book for a year Guess that speaks to board questions" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1744849839655886920) 2024-01-09T22:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@dumpstercap @BitMoreLeverage Ok I'll give you the EV basis Market cap* at 100% it's $245 for IFP vs $325 for CFP I believe that CFP was a bit softer in the last few years on ROCE type metrics" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1744928390396756339) 2024-01-10T03:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@MananaInvesting The part that I really don't understand is the extent of the dislocation. I mean I understand that the biz isn't firing on all cylinders but normally that results in multiple expansions we've seen compression because of lower ROE. I wonder if the fix becomes proof of quality" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1745175582327853556) 2024-01-10T20:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Today reminded me that next week Canada gets its day of doomers yelling about the resurgence of inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1745585071099134149) 2024-01-11T23:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The odd part about $100 uranium is that the 'climax' to date was years ago at half the price" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1745797953636258001) 2024-01-12T13:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Reminder that if Mortgage Interest Cost becomes a negative YoY contributor inflation would be more than 1% lower" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1746280907877531762) 2024-01-13T21:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Can't remember the last time I saw gas below $1.50. before today Biggest sale on chicken in months too. Mortgage rates cut last week. Rents actually ticked lower in December as well. . And real rates are well into restrictive territory because we added a whole [---] jobs" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1746738148611068098) 2024-01-15T03:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@jeffgeringer92 Pics or it didn't happen" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1747045245554958367) 2024-01-15T23:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Food rebounded +.3% MoM which is against the trend we'd been seeing. Now up to 2.0% YoY pace over the last [--] months. Although stores are 1% pace" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1747254342368006347) 2024-01-16T13:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "On a YoY basis Mortgage interest 1.09% Rent 0.52% Food purchased from Restaurants 0.31% Of note the 4th largest contributor to YoY inflation is up 2.3% YoY and contributes 0.013% The only real problem is interest rates. Which in turn hit RE supply which in turn hits rent" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1747263536525697444) 2024-01-16T14:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "What some use as "core" aka trim could take a huge dive in coming months if food comes in soft. (It should if it tracks world food price index trend) Seasonally normally up big in Jan/Feb (1.4) but less than the [---] that rolls off. If that" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1747298419876454540) 2024-01-16T16:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "But yes you read that right. People's idea of "Core inflation" in Canada is currently hugely dependent on food a cyclical commodity whose measured price is completely divorced from international input prices🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1747299408331317273) 2024-01-16T16:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Any thoughts on $DOL.TO" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1747326402565689481) 2024-01-16T18:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Canada's food inflation is running at +5% YoY. While inputs are running at -10% YoY I can't fully explain the gap" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1747572226184904961) 2024-01-17T10:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Can you spot where interest rates went too far I can. Hey fellow Canadians please wake up. https://t.co/zQmoDEDu32 Hey fellow Canadians please wake up. https://t.co/zQmoDEDu32" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1747576626290864183) 2024-01-17T11:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "If as a society we want to do things like; Add a carbon tax Or Raise wages for grocery store employees That's fine but it's already a tax on consumption because it increases prices. Using interest rates to fight this is double taxing the same thing & ridiculous" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1747582134850576693) 2024-01-17T11:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@cap_zay GDP per capita rolls over just as BoC inverts the yield curve after the inflation spike fighting the real estate supply that's trying to fix the RE market. Yeah it's not economically dynamic or diverse which is why policy needs to consider that" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1747663544638726164) 2024-01-17T16:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "One curious thing: According to some everyone now expects a soft landing Yet 8.5% of $GM shares are sold short at sub 5x earnings while the company is buying back 20% of their shares. I don't know the company well but this feels like an odd contradiction" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1747755747474080153) 2024-01-17T23:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "CEO of Royal Bank essentially says 'We're in a recession but it's going to get 3x as bad' Imagine if term bonds weren't defying the BoC insanity and were at 5% shutting down more housing starts. More payment shock coming. - RBC CEO McKay https://t.co/awNiO9IMp8 More payment shock coming. - RBC CEO McKay https://t.co/awNiO9IMp8" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1747773259234353525) 2024-01-18T00:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "To those who don't see how high rates force prices higher let me ask you if Hydro Quebec spends $185B in Capex bond financed at 8% who ends up paying that coupon" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1747865294498890171) 2024-01-18T06:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "And lower we go. *Is this food inflation in the room with us now* https://t.co/ORHodviCzD *Is this food inflation in the room with us now* https://t.co/ORHodviCzD" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1748833246639747535) 2024-01-20T22:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I should mention that there's normally a seasonal rebound in food inflation coming in January data. We could easily see big prints despite global food disinflation & deflation" [X Link](https://x.com/deepvalueco/status/1748835281657037052) 2024-01-20T22:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@deepvalueco IRResistible CAGRs🍁IRResistible CAGRs🍁 posts on X about inflation, canada, rates, money the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence finance countries stocks currencies technology brands cryptocurrencies travel destinations automotive brands social networks us election
Social topic influence inflation, canada, rates, money, $csuto, debt, $iiil, stocks #3446, gdp, acquisition
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @brownmarubozu @alphafortuna10 @nestbetter @lundeenne @m3kuso @cdinewsletter @mwgjamie @igetredpilled @cj0pp3l @invertedfragil1 @olivierr @rodbhar @savaninvestor @fvrcapital @aagresearch @chrisinmontreal @pythiar @compcapto @stocktalk416 @fred03288871
Top assets mentioned Walmart, Inc. (WMT) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) Bitcoin (BTC) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) GM (GM) Costco Hot Dog (COST) 4 (FOUR)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"PBOC injecting 510Billion Yuan in [--] days FED ups overnight repo to 125B Negative Yeilding Euro and Japanese Bonds S&P near all time high . Glad we're all caught up"
X Link 2019-10-24T02:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$U.TO $URPTF priced like #uranium were about $24"
X Link 2020-04-10T00:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I'm seeing a bit of confusion about how Uranium Participation Corp works $U.TO $URPTF I hope this thread helps"
X Link 2020-04-10T17:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"UPC NCIB. Good for shareholders ( $U.TO $URPTF) http://news.uraniumparticipation.com/releases/entry/122586 http://news.uraniumparticipation.com/releases/entry/122586"
X Link 2020-04-14T10:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The irony of the uranium market is that sentiment contributes to a self reinforcing loop in the short term. There are numerous reasons that amplify this effect. This thread is about the physical #uranium funds. $YCA & $U.To $URPTF"
X Link 2020-08-04T14:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$TSLA Tesla now has a bigger market cap that $KO Coca-Cola Co & $PEP PepsiCo. Combined Or if you prefer Bigger than $WMT Wal-Mart"
X Link 2020-08-26T18:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I'm looking at $NIO and dang total deliveries [-----]. Market Cap : $33.78B That's a valuation of $579k per car sold"
X Link 2020-10-19T23:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@ArpatSood + copper"
X Link 2021-02-20T01:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Probably more relevant than what the fed says they're going to do"
X Link 2021-06-16T19:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Just saw a poll that made me lose faith in. Everything "Which of these stocks would you prefer to put all you're money in" $FB (3%) $GOOG (11%) $AMZN (16%) $AAPL (18%) $TSLA (51%)"
X Link 2021-07-01T01:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Anyone got any future multibaggers (Preferably profitable now or in near future)"
X Link 2021-12-09T14:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This chart is a mix of SPUT w/ATM running & illiquid penny stock. Yet it's not even close"
X Link 2022-01-31T21:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Me when even David Rosenberg suggests that the Canadian housing bubble can implode and leave Alberta unscathed"
X Link 2022-05-11T13:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"For someone starting an all weather portfolio in Canada. Top of my head I got something like this Are there any glaring omissions"
X Link 2022-07-26T15:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Chapter [--] on 11-11"
X Link 2022-11-11T15:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Open up all you want but China's days of +5% GDP growth are likely behind it. It's been declining for a long time and demographics don't support that re-accelerating"
X Link 2022-12-18T16:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Druckenmiller Q4 new buys include $NVDA $LEN $DE $OXY $T $AMD $PH $VALE Big Adds: $LLY $LW $META $CVE $OPCH Overweight consumer discretionary and energy while buying semis is how I prepare for recessions too"
X Link 2023-02-15T14:44Z [----] followers, 28.8K engagements
"Joc O'Rourke ( $MOS) comments on potash"
X Link 2023-02-23T21:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"OMG Druck bought more $NVDA"
X Link 2023-05-15T21:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@lundeen_ne Can't really speak to everywhere (I mean credit Suisse did die too) but less banks and different banking system/regulation and risk/duration management probably played rolls CAN is probably a good contrast for study. Very few banks & low term on borrow/ loans"
X Link 2023-05-16T00:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Wrote some thoughts after a day of Dream-ing (AGMs) $DRM.TO"
X Link 2023-06-11T14:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I got $DRM's $D.UN decision wrong. Was surprised they came away owning a smaller % thought a flat % or increase were [--] most probable. Makes the whole process a bit more puzzling honestly"
X Link 2023-06-20T20:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The CAD is up 3% in June I know nothing. but A few months ago people were arguing a weakening CAD would prolong inflation as a reason to hike. So"
X Link 2023-06-24T12:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Not so fun fact: Last time (90s) interest rates stayed mostly this high in Canada purpose built rental starts in Toronto went to [--] for a decade. (Condos also declined) But really they had already declined by 90% since the 60s due to high rates and rent controls"
X Link 2023-06-24T15:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ah yes silver in [----] the super bubble caused by the speculative fever of those ultra low 15% interest rates"
X Link 2023-06-26T11:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"People: housing has been resilient Housing: supply -33%"
X Link 2023-06-27T01:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This isn't even my biggest problem with points like this. They're just based on stories not logic. Like is inflation still rising What are rates doing to supply How much of the current hikes will only be felt gradually as mortgages reset etc"
X Link 2023-06-27T01:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I really don't understand the $TMO and $DHR bullishness. 12% ROE companies trading at 40x & 30x normalized earnings. The COVID excess ROEs have mean reverted but the P/B hasn't. Fine companies but should be flat for [--] years if ROE sticks to co's 15y average"
X Link 2023-06-30T09:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Gotta say if I'm running a RE company here in Canada I'm pushing more maturities out to 7-10 years. Can get debt below cap rates there and be set to pay it down. Protect vs BoC. Keep cash @ 5% as hedge for lower rates vs paying 5.25"
X Link 2023-06-30T10:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"If you get the continued inflation they're fine from higher NOIs and appreciate if rates take valuations lower (caps higher) you have capital &/or can make money on interest spread"
X Link 2023-06-30T11:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A bunch of people who I really respect seem to like $TMO these days but I still very much don't get it. Looks like a $350 stock to me every time I look at it"
X Link 2023-07-07T18:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@recursivecycles Honestly they should just lever up their assets with that 4% 10y debt they spoke about park it in 5.25% 6M t-bills and wait for BoC to hike until development goes to [--] and rents 🚀 Stupid but flips rate exposure"
X Link 2023-07-09T01:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@ronmortgageguy @CDInewsletter This is an evil premise when we're pumping in a million people a year and the labor force should be expanding by 60.5k per month just due to that"
X Link 2023-07-09T10:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"It's quite scary how few people are discussing all the ways that rate hikes create inflation (even excluding Mortgage Interest)"
X Link 2023-07-09T10:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Like sure you kill families on the demand side and throw people out on the street. But you also raise the investment hurdle for supply requiring higher prices to add the same supply. Econ [---] less supply = higher price"
X Link 2023-07-09T11:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So if you're a country like Canada who adds 290k people per quarter and you're raising rates to stop inflation that's primarily rent (excluding MIC here). But you end up shutting down construction (ie [------] jobs per month) you'd be making it worse. To magically fix it"
X Link 2023-07-09T11:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Can't complete a thread like this without these Next month the CPI-Ex MIC will show 2.0% (although short term trough) Every month from Aug to Feb we have 0.1% inflation from MIC set to roll off of core inflation. We just need time without further damage"
X Link 2023-07-09T11:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@CDInewsletter There's a weird 0.38% from Food in restaurants and 0.25% from tobacco/alcohol/Cannabis too that I'm not sure why we care about. That plus Mortgage costs being half of our inflation is wild to me"
X Link 2023-07-09T13:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Goods deflation continues. Lowest prices since April 2021"
X Link 2023-07-10T23:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Canadian policy: We bankrupt one old Canadian because our economy is too strong & replace them with one new Canadian because our economy is too weak. That's not the central banks' problem. They just create inflation to fight inflation. It's disgusting"
X Link 2023-07-10T23:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Industrial company from a few months ago explained why higher rates force higher prices. Policy keeps ignoring the supply side"
X Link 2023-07-12T20:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Still not sure why this is going so poorly. US homebuilders are printing mid 20s ROEs if Canadian house prices are 'so high' shouldn't that mean decent profit Alberta & oil rocking + housing there too Vacancy at [--] year lows"
X Link 2023-07-22T13:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DrJStrategy I disagree I think some of the pandemic response measures also helped cause inflation. (Handing out money/paying people not to work)"
X Link 2023-07-27T10:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Core inflation is 3.2% (including 1% of mortgage costs). Core CPI was -ve MoM Average mortgage interest paid is 225-250 bps below market. When we get to cutting we'll still be restrictive & MIC will reverse. Meaning we probably won't be able to find 'inflation'"
X Link 2023-07-30T10:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Core inflation doesn't have the same base effects cliff that non-core does. Probably low 2s by October data. +30% of which will be mortgage interest. But it won't get below target until at least March/April"
X Link 2023-07-30T14:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Does China enter deflation I say yes. Fun fact they've only loosened police for the last [--] years"
X Link 2023-08-08T15:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Food still running above 8% Imo this likely touches [--] or negative within [--] months. 1.3% to 0% Could coincide with Mortgage costs going from 0.8% to -0.2% Inflation could easily be in the 0.Xs with rates dropping making the deflation more exaggerated. Some fx offset"
X Link 2023-08-09T03:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@MananaInvesting Next we need for the market to decide that real estate isn't going to [--] because of interest rates"
X Link 2023-08-12T23:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Buffett buys homebuilders and twitter can't stop talking about Burry's tail hedge"
X Link 2023-08-15T10:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Meat price inflation is the 5th largest contributor to Canadian inflation at +7.7% Year over Year"
X Link 2023-08-16T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My suggestion is home prices fall 3% incomes rise 10% and interest rates fall 350bps. Over a few years Also we reduce taxes & permitting times Then affordability is far better than pre-covid"
X Link 2023-08-19T08:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Is this a sign $drm.to"
X Link 2023-08-22T21:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"To all those who have drank the central bank cool-aid let me ask how nuking the economy is supposed to fix supply problems How will it fix things that use international prices How does shutting down real estate development fix rent inflation Pseudoscience insanity"
X Link 2023-08-23T11:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Worse is that inflation is coming down and would anyways but the inability to track data in real time and understand the counter-impact central bank actions are having is destroying people"
X Link 2023-08-23T11:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Deflation but CB's still chasing their tail. $FL and all retail. This is what models look like when pricing goes from +10% YY to negative. The Op-models collapse. https://t.co/FuL1A5yRiy $FL and all retail. This is what models look like when pricing goes from +10% YY to negative. The Op-models collapse. https://t.co/FuL1A5yRiy"
X Link 2023-08-23T11:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Brazil's next policy rate decision(s) will be interesting They were first to cut with a bigger than expected one but now due to base effects inflation will temporarily jump above target. PPI is imploding (-12% YoY & 2.5%MoM) Monthly CPI is tame Real rates still excessive"
X Link 2023-08-24T11:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@greentardscycle You say that but I think US inflation peaking when FF was at 1% probably shows that rates don't/didn't do what everyone thinks (and SELIC may be even more overboard this time)"
X Link 2023-08-24T11:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@FIVRE604 Supply will decline less capital will be available for future builds and unit size will decrease too. But yes it sounds more sustainable"
X Link 2023-08-26T16:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Lots of talk about XX year Amortization of Canadian mortgages but mortgage delinquency is at 2/3 of [----] levels while the banks build their loan loss provisions"
X Link 2023-08-30T00:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Sounds good. But. "Balance the budget to bring down inflation" is 90% political nonsense. And the 'how' of the above is a huge question. Country wide austerity = recession or worse. Country Balance sheet company/individual balance sheet"
X Link 2023-08-30T12:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Wow. I mean this isn't a small company. $FMG.ax new deck out as CEO and CFO exit https://t.co/4clu768fvD https://t.co/FgrQs4PTMw $FMG.ax new deck out as CEO and CFO exit https://t.co/4clu768fvD https://t.co/FgrQs4PTMw"
X Link 2023-09-02T00:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Canada Inflation: Over 2% is Food + Mortgage Interest Cost. Food could easily go to [--] or negative MIC could easily roll to [--] But I think rent gets worse (mostly driven by rates) and the negative of energy also rolls off. Not sure how much more minor inputs can deflate"
X Link 2023-09-02T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The inflation is now coming from damage (supply) as is the deflation (demand). Further most things are international prices and damaging the economy + currency doesn't help The whole thing is completely insane"
X Link 2023-09-02T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"All of this is an extrapolation of current policy at this point in time. (Based on higher for longer) If rates change (as I certainly believe they should and probably will at some point in the middle) the picture changes"
X Link 2023-09-02T15:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I expect housing affordability to remain extremely low as demand drastically exceeds supply. Rents with probably be near the top of the CPI as they need to be to incentivize development at these rates"
X Link 2023-09-02T15:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It's incredibly obvious in capital heavy industries (whether that's real estate industrial mining or financing a power plant). That higher interest rates are inflationary because they require higher rents/margins/prices to produce the same supply"
X Link 2023-09-03T13:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@he_mowz 1: oversupply vs demand like having the [--] inflation that we did 2: this is talking about the inventive cost of incremental supply. You still need the demand to warrant the capital investment"
X Link 2023-09-03T13:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@PythiaR I agree that Canada doesn't work at these interest rates. But you can also buy a brand new [--] bedroom [---] bath 1500sq ft house for 450K near Calgary"
X Link 2023-09-07T16:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Someone needs to ask Tiff why the deflationary impact on spending from this artificial inflation is different from the impact on spending of say higher Food/Gas prices. (It's actually worse because this inflation doesn't incentivize supply)"
X Link 2023-09-08T12:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"He might say something about withdrawing money from the system. to which I'd follow up by asking what the impact is on the supply side of removing their capital and ability to produce enough supply to cap/drive down prices"
X Link 2023-09-08T12:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"The obvious example of creating inflation via scarcity is in housing/rents (surprise surprise one of the few remaining sticky areas) housing isn't optional and demand destruction there = homelessness"
X Link 2023-09-08T12:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$LNR.TO still sitting there at 5x EBIT"
X Link 2023-09-08T22:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Canadian [--] year bonds yield something like 3.65% people also expect that to fall in a rate cutting environment. People would also expect a positive sloping un-inverted yield curve. Ok so.Where's the short end going if/when rates decline"
X Link 2023-09-09T18:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@GaelanHanlon I remember a book referencing in the 90s auto parts trading at 10x earnings. In the late 90s with high rates they traded at 3x book. And yes I believe AG & skyjack are probably worth closer to 10x EBITDA (perhaps not at every point in the cycle)"
X Link 2023-09-09T21:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@adequateryan @DividendGrowth Same my second thought was something that was in the business of being adaptable. Would prefer a less levered BAM for this but the AM arm is probably resilient and the structure of the debt is decent"
X Link 2023-09-09T23:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@alphafortuna10 @NonObviously Riocan referenced a similar yield in one of their presentations . which at this interest rate is similarly a no-go"
X Link 2023-09-13T16:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Comp_Cap_TO It doesn't even offset [--] rate hike. but it's better than nothing"
X Link 2023-09-15T00:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@ronh_pm They should get a raise in line with the market assuming productivity is in line. that's NOT what they're asking for. not even close"
X Link 2023-09-15T19:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@marketplunger1 "Core" inflation is used because it excludes highly cyclical components of food and energy because the data there will be rapidly out of date Now however the biggest component of inflation is shelter in OER where the data is lagged to the extent of being useless"
X Link 2023-09-15T19:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BobMarl42515340 It's not a free market tho. The central bank literally sets short rates AND the free-er end (long end) is telling you that even with duration risk 3.7% is good enough for them. If [---] is true for 10y.what's [--] Plus again you're free to not own it if the R/R isn't good enough"
X Link 2023-09-16T14:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I wrote some thoughts about the Canadian stock market and economy. Touched on a variety of topics from banks to some commodities bonds inflation RE food and immigration etc"
X Link 2023-09-16T18:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Your regular reminder that more than half of US Core inflation is based on data so lagged that it's irrelevant for decision making"
X Link 2023-09-17T11:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ausstockchick Don't worry Canada is growing [----] people per day and our government just hyped up the construction of [----] units. so we can handle your overflow"
X Link 2023-09-17T12:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Looney got hit in August and "All items excluding gasoline was 0.1" If gas declines and looney strengthens CPI can come in soft in September [---] then big base effects in Oct. Sept [---] Oct [---] Nov [---] Dec [---] Below [--] in April"
X Link 2023-09-22T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Sentiment check"
X Link 2023-09-22T21:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@todd_ramos I believe this is referencing Canada. CAD banks generally have less duration exposure. Funding & lending here generally rolls in shorter terms"
X Link 2023-09-23T00:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Retail sales +2% YoY By my math after 4% inflation & 3% population growth. real retail sales per capita are: dEfInItElY oVeRhEaTiNg"
X Link 2023-09-23T01:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Astervox42 US gets 90% of the discussion but is closer to 10% of global production. Canada should be able to grow Brazil Guyana Namibia Plenty of places are holding back too"
X Link 2023-09-23T13:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@StockTalk416 @o_li_vi_err This makes no sense to me If you're bearish/concerned office structure all the debt as office/asset mortgage. convert what you can office to Resi keep DIR if office busts you still have +$500M value"
X Link 2023-09-26T16:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@StockTalk416 @o_li_vi_err Whereas if you're bullish office you sell the DIR and buyback units 'lever up' on office exposure"
X Link 2023-09-26T16:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Netherlands in French is Pays bas. translates to Country Low. now has among the lowest inflation rates in the world.coincidence I think not"
X Link 2023-09-30T01:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@panaceacures Interesting I didn't know that do you know what the major differences are"
X Link 2023-09-30T10:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"People mocking him for this & the implementation would be complex but If they restrict it to 1st time buyers &/or new builds the gov could take a haircut on capital as the market funds new supply in a way that's affordable for buyers. This isn't crazy like some other takes"
X Link 2023-09-30T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In the last [----] years long term interest rates have gone to 13% once. but since everyone remembers it it feels almost normal"
X Link 2023-10-03T00:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It's amazing that the yield curve is still inverted and people are talking about lack of demand for risk free yield & 13% long end rates"
X Link 2023-10-03T10:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"If/when the yield curve uninverts I will start listening to the "nobody wants treasuries" arguments. Not prior. By the way the US fiscal isn't beyond repair (yet) plenty of income tax hikes to catch Canada and the EU can still balance that out"
X Link 2023-10-04T10:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Homelessness Explodes In Canada as interest rates make housing supply uneconomic. I don't want an "I told you so" I want this fixed. Instead it's going to get worse. Thanks Tiff"
X Link 2023-10-07T10:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@damaaster Ha wanted to tag big [--] first. No real order there. I approached it without expectations but found the results interesting. But slightly bias confirming"
X Link 2023-10-07T20:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"What is the point of our ridiculous censorship laws if we're going to allow public support of terrorist organizations in broad daylight. Wasn't that their one job"
X Link 2023-10-09T02:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Things that make you go hmmm Why indeed Maybe Egypt knows that many of the people in Gaza have become radicalized terrorists & need to protect their own citizens"
X Link 2023-10-10T10:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@AhmedRahman86 1: most people from Mexico are allowed into the United States whenever they want just not to stay independently. 2: The point was people blame Israel for defending its border (because they're Jews) but not Egypt who do the same. 3: A terror group has a majority government"
X Link 2023-10-10T10:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BoC decision looks like it'll come down to the wire will be heavily influenced by September inflation data"
X Link 2023-10-11T00:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""Open Air Prison" justification for terrorism Corrupt rich terrorists keeping all the resources isn't Israeli oppression"
X Link 2023-10-15T14:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I for one was shocked at how quickly the "open air prior" narrative jumped to "This bombing destroyed our beautiful neighborhood in Gaza with ice cream shops & restaurants" . Which doesn't sound like an open air prison to me. Without people questioning the narrative"
X Link 2023-10-15T14:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Was in discussion around import pricing (niche product). Sounds like there's room for more deflation stemming from freight price collapse. Inventory less mobile & price being rethought. Surprised it hadn't happened yet"
X Link 2023-10-16T21:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@dylangrice @GaryBla89681788 As to your "bigger" point. The last Israel - Lebanon conflict brought so much destruction to Lebanon that they lost the opinion that "death to Israel at any cost" is worth it. Not a good answer but not necessarily a never ending loop"
X Link 2023-10-17T12:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The craziest part of this Canadian CPI report is that the 15% decline in retail gasoline prices wasn't included. Inflation is dead"
X Link 2023-10-17T12:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Canadian Core inflation now sits at 3.1% If you exclude rate hikes it'd be something like 2.2%"
X Link 2023-10-17T13:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Canadian housing starts improved to 270k pace So all the way up to [--] unit per [----] people added"
X Link 2023-10-18T16:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Negative Retail sales growth. I'm out of sarcastic things to say"
X Link 2023-10-20T13:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@WSB_redditor @PierrePoilievre Not exactly (Desjardins EQB Tangerine home trust etc) but even if true that doesn't mean anything. Mortgage rates are lower in Canada than the US. Less concern about bank runs too. Less duration risk. Etc we don't need hundreds of banks to all mimic the BoC anyways"
X Link 2023-10-21T13:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"It's wildly irresponsible to believe (or publish) anything that Palestinian Health officials claim"
X Link 2023-10-25T02:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Say what you want about REITs / Office the $AP.UN insiders disagree"
X Link 2023-10-25T11:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"BoC forecasts an average inflation rate of 0.3% MoM into the middle of next year"
X Link 2023-10-25T16:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So $AP.UN kicks off another REIT earnings season of"
X Link 2023-10-26T11:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Most of $WFG's earnings unsurprisingly came from the EWP segment whose price had been stronger than lumber. Lumber was better than Q2 Pulp was less bad. Costs are relevantly lower YoY"
X Link 2023-10-26T11:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"US inflation if BLS shelter data wasn't incomprehensibly lagged = 2.0%"
X Link 2023-10-29T14:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In my opinion $CM.TO (CIBC) was the best Canadian bank from [----] to [----]. It had the highest ROE in [--] or those [--] years (measured July to June)"
X Link 2023-10-29T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@GadSaad Heart in the right place. Due diligence. perhaps lacking"
X Link 2023-11-01T01:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This was more than [--] weeks ago. At some point if you're staying in Northern Gaza you're willing yourself to be a human shield. And if you're injured from a tunnel collapse sinkhole that's exactly what you were"
X Link 2023-11-01T01:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I didn't have "CAD surges as more cuts get priced in" on my bingo card"
X Link 2023-11-03T18:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@alphafortuna10 Preferred shares are equity not debt"
X Link 2023-11-03T21:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Development yields matter. Who knew"
X Link 2023-11-04T00:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Reading between the lines from real estate guys this is precisely the case. If the Yield curve hadn't inverted "fighting the BoC" things would have broken worse on the RE supply side 100bps ago"
X Link 2023-11-08T15:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Pauls leaving as CEO of $3.5B MC REIT to be CEO of $100M market cap REIT"
X Link 2023-11-08T19:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I was/am skeptical of the Dura-Shiloh acquisition but this Mobex acquisition sounds like it has pretty good prospects. $LNR.TO Industrial still strong mobility still weak"
X Link 2023-11-08T22:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@jayvas @CJ0pp3l How have they avoided the broader RE-pocalypse in public RE recently Is their valuation still ok vs peers"
X Link 2023-11-11T11:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@jayvas @CJ0pp3l It looked like a solid company. I was only cautious on price when the landscape has significant discounts to their book while this trades at book despite the same interest rate risk story. Interestingly often the non-reits trade at discounts to the REITs"
X Link 2023-11-11T12:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@alphafortuna10 @VanIsleInvestor On one hand sure. On the other it's only 'dangerously leveraged' if the assumption is office has further to decline or in some way further deterioration is likely. Otherwise it's buying cheap real estate with adequate leverage"
X Link 2023-11-17T13:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@nachkari really depends where you start. but I mean our lowest tax bracket is higher than Alberta/sask/ontario's highest. (plus higher sales tax) and what we get for that is more language laws / discrimination more stringent lockdowns crap roads/medical wait times / any english📉📉"
X Link 2023-11-18T18:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@MikePMoffatt Ok but alternatively since [----] rents have grown at 4.3% CAGR. Which is much less dramatic and consider how much some other things increased isn't excessive. Wages for instance grew 4.8% this year & 5.6% last year"
X Link 2023-11-21T18:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This would be a fair point if the Canadian market didn't suck. As is for something of that scale there (unfortunately) aren't enough quality options. (That's before opening the permitting can of worms)"
X Link 2023-11-24T14:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BourbeauChris Unless they drastically improved the business environment and company mix in Canada simultaneously it could be a very bad idea. But the fixed income side I have less of an issue with them pushing to increase Canada"
X Link 2023-11-24T16:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BourbeauChris But YCC is an odd point of discussion in a market where the BoC has struggled for years to get the long end higher without the desired success. (Thankfully)"
X Link 2023-11-24T16:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@StockTalk416 No but the guided for some growth too & this could easily be suggesting either cautious approach or could come through with tailwind"
X Link 2023-11-28T17:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"US retail sales more in line with Walmart earnings than 5% GDP growth"
X Link 2023-11-29T13:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Si vous vivez au Qubec depuis assez longtemps vous avez dj vu un Franais refuser de vous parler anglais parce qu'il n'aime pas les Anglais. ou vous. Cet outrage est tellement stupide"
X Link 2023-12-01T01:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Unemployed persons in Canada up another [-----] to [----] Million Vs in January of [----] when we had [-----] Million. (More than any time between Nov [----] & Feb 2020) But keep telling yourself that we need to loosen the labor market to fight inflation"
X Link 2023-12-01T14:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Unemployment rate now at 5.8% low was 5.0% 6% likely soon. We should be cutting"
X Link 2023-12-01T14:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Half good. BUT [--]. Land = barely relevant point [--]. QE is an irrelevant scapegoat. We've been doing the reverse for years (no mention) also painfully ignores interest rate component (maybe because he complained they're too low in the past) & ignores Covid-flation"
X Link 2023-12-02T18:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"IMHO this guy doesn't understand "money" in a different way from the other candidates. Probably a different kind of concerning. He approaches money like a Bitcoin maxi. Dangerous for a government"
X Link 2023-12-02T18:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Shrinking the balance sheet reducing spending saving money paying down debt less money growth earning more with your money. Etc Those sound good for the individual but are extremely difficult for a government to attempt because there's someone on the other side"
X Link 2023-12-02T18:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Reducing spending = firing people Paying down debt = eliminating someone asset Stopping money supply growth = preventing economic growth But yes I realize we need to move in this direction incrementally because the alternative is unsustainable"
X Link 2023-12-02T18:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"From a distance watching some of these reits has been a painful spectacle of shareholder appeasement chasing. oh retail don't want that. sell it low and move the capital into office etc. oh Office don't want that. oh debt service is higher & prices are lower 'sell' low"
X Link 2023-12-02T21:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"You know week [--] where I was getting pissed off at the UN schools feeding hateful propaganda and saying the problem is deeper than most suggest. It remains a deep problem that I don't have an answer to. Will things improve without Hamas Probably Enough I fear to speculate"
X Link 2023-12-03T12:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A reminder that I am a legendary contra on currencies. It should be impossible to be this consistently wrong"
X Link 2023-12-03T12:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@nachkari Little to nothing short term. But the mortgage rates are only falling because we're pricing in eventual cuts (which comes first chicken or egg) cause with 5% across the curve we'd all be quite f*****. (In that sense imo big error to be this high to begin with)"
X Link 2023-12-05T19:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@o_li_vi_err I often question why I don't own this one"
X Link 2023-12-05T20:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TSXDivStock Manji had unlucky timing in addition to a few mistakes. I think their strategy is pointing in the right direction but the timing and asset mix wasn't perfect"
X Link 2023-12-06T19:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TSXDivStock I mean looking at the REITs today so few are arbing the NAV discount to add value from the disconnect. As much of a no brainer as it seems most aren't"
X Link 2023-12-06T19:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TSXDivStock Didn't edge point recently announce a 10% stake And I mean on both who cares they chase price/sentiment anyways. (Either way great to ARB at a bigger spread) Basically all of the 'bad management' has been 'office' or rates (perhaps expressed via Cominar) imo"
X Link 2023-12-06T20:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@NonObviously @TSXDivStock I don't know. I do think that converting assets to discounted shares (of own REIT & peers) makes a lot of sense (absent activism). But it also sets them apart as "hard to measure" especially in down markets"
X Link 2023-12-06T20:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Slightly sad to see $EQB.TO guide for more dividend growth than book value growth"
X Link 2023-12-08T00:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@CJ0pp3l @fhoro I can't claim to know enough to comment on all companies but some at the bottom don't seem entirely surprising for various reasons from odd capital allocation decisions to dual class share & management that owns enough to not answer to anyone type of thing. Not always bad cos"
X Link 2023-12-09T10:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@CJ0pp3l @fhoro CU ATCO controled FFH Prem doing his own thing STLC bought a football team DND not great employee ratings /debt issues BRP dual class share RCI . Shop SBC NXE high mgmt pay and promotion spend BIR leverage/ dividend strategy GooS/tlry idk but not great performance"
X Link 2023-12-09T10:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Hanukkah celebrates [----] years ago when Jews returned to the temple they built in Jerusalem Christmas celebrates the birth of a man born Jewish in the modern "West Bank" [----] years ago I want to wish everyone the best this holiday season"
X Link 2023-12-09T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@_ForceMajeure_1 It's certainly not the same for every company but so far most of the strategic results have been similar. I've seen small REITs in Canada with 5y terms & large caps in US with 10+ year terms acting the same way"
X Link 2023-12-10T13:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Astervox42 How does this change banks needing to pay 6% for [--] year GICs"
X Link 2023-12-10T15:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@PaulAndreola It's a sign of too much inflation"
X Link 2023-12-11T21:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"CAD bond yields don't look like they've broke Dec lows like US ones on Fed news"
X Link 2023-12-13T19:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Because I'll be honest they look about as useful as trained monkeys. Every single thing they say seems to ignore everything except a headline number"
X Link 2023-12-15T19:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It's almost like they believe there's a dual mandate of target inflation & have as high a rate as possible. (Which is imo stupid but plenty of people seem to think that's the ideal scenario.)"
X Link 2023-12-15T19:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Even ignoring the tone commentary and sarcasm those are incredibly problematic numbers"
X Link 2023-12-15T22:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I'm sure government numbers are wrong but it's not like our housing sector is particularly close to covering this"
X Link 2023-12-19T23:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Comp_Cap_TO True but will that portion of the number go negative Something needs to give"
X Link 2023-12-20T13:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"With rents here and term yields here the economics start working again and rents don't need to inflate as much further. Will the market save itself from the BoC driven inflation/cost of living crisis We'll see"
X Link 2023-12-20T14:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I also like the more branded higher margin portfolio acquisitions as they provide a quality that's certainly not in the mid single digit earnings multiple"
X Link 2023-12-21T11:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I also like that they're using more of their balance sheet capacity & think it'll increase growth and ROE metrics"
X Link 2023-12-21T11:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Anyways I like the acquisition and think it'll add value growth quality brand power stability EPS margin FCF etc I think it'll be accretive and look like good value in a few years. But I don't think that necessarily beats a buyback at recent prices"
X Link 2023-12-21T12:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"It was a bad year. I underperformed by a lot. Key mistakes: Large positions missed guidance by alarming amounts. I believed management and I didn't risk manage. I got rates wrong. In different forms. Certain recoveries I was hoping for didn't happen. 1/x"
X Link 2023-12-31T12:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Nick_Wellings There are a few I've mentioned publicly in the past Auto parts: Martinrea MRE (and Linamar LNR still gets treated as that even though it's decently diversified) Lumber I'm in [--] of the big [--] in Canada Real estate DRM and some of the REITs that got hit big like that AX is acting"
X Link 2023-12-31T12:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I sped past an interesting point about the MacDon acquisition. (Interesting because the stock performance since would suggest it wasn't great) Bought at 1.2B 600M sales then 16% OE margin Interest rate call it 3-4%"
X Link 2023-12-31T14:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"OE was 96M Amortization of intangibles 15M Interest 48M Ok starting point Became post sales 2x [---] OE Almost 13% net OE yield. On something that has grown at a 15% rate That doesn't seem terrible"
X Link 2023-12-31T14:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@GeorgeH54822093 @Brad96969282 Carbon Capture or Carbon Credits"
X Link 2024-01-02T14:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"In today's edition of: "Nobody knows what's going on" Canada adds [---] jobs last month (less than expected) While the unemployment rate stays flat at 5.8% (which is also lower than expected) [---] jobs. that's too much winning right Tiff"
X Link 2024-01-05T14:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"West Fraser $WFG probably sitting at 3x normalized EBITDA. Pretty interesting for a company willing to push the buybacks"
X Link 2024-01-09T13:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@dumpstercap @BitMoreLeverage I won't pretend to know all the ins and outs of the comp. but. P/B is similar yet more of IFP's BS is invested in capacity vs CFP which has been holding lots of cash for a while. production capacity is pretty close for 2x MC partially due to pulp in cfp which has been soft"
X Link 2024-01-09T22:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@dumpstercap @BitMoreLeverage Maybe on EV/Capacity but again torque is probably better measured by market cap/capacity. Part of my annoyance with CFP has been sitting on a billion in cash while the stock lingers at .6x book for a year Guess that speaks to board questions"
X Link 2024-01-09T22:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@dumpstercap @BitMoreLeverage Ok I'll give you the EV basis Market cap* at 100% it's $245 for IFP vs $325 for CFP I believe that CFP was a bit softer in the last few years on ROCE type metrics"
X Link 2024-01-10T03:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@MananaInvesting The part that I really don't understand is the extent of the dislocation. I mean I understand that the biz isn't firing on all cylinders but normally that results in multiple expansions we've seen compression because of lower ROE. I wonder if the fix becomes proof of quality"
X Link 2024-01-10T20:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Today reminded me that next week Canada gets its day of doomers yelling about the resurgence of inflation"
X Link 2024-01-11T23:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The odd part about $100 uranium is that the 'climax' to date was years ago at half the price"
X Link 2024-01-12T13:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Reminder that if Mortgage Interest Cost becomes a negative YoY contributor inflation would be more than 1% lower"
X Link 2024-01-13T21:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Can't remember the last time I saw gas below $1.50. before today Biggest sale on chicken in months too. Mortgage rates cut last week. Rents actually ticked lower in December as well. . And real rates are well into restrictive territory because we added a whole [---] jobs"
X Link 2024-01-15T03:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@jeffgeringer92 Pics or it didn't happen"
X Link 2024-01-15T23:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Food rebounded +.3% MoM which is against the trend we'd been seeing. Now up to 2.0% YoY pace over the last [--] months. Although stores are 1% pace"
X Link 2024-01-16T13:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"On a YoY basis Mortgage interest 1.09% Rent 0.52% Food purchased from Restaurants 0.31% Of note the 4th largest contributor to YoY inflation is up 2.3% YoY and contributes 0.013% The only real problem is interest rates. Which in turn hit RE supply which in turn hits rent"
X Link 2024-01-16T14:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"What some use as "core" aka trim could take a huge dive in coming months if food comes in soft. (It should if it tracks world food price index trend) Seasonally normally up big in Jan/Feb (1.4) but less than the [---] that rolls off. If that"
X Link 2024-01-16T16:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"But yes you read that right. People's idea of "Core inflation" in Canada is currently hugely dependent on food a cyclical commodity whose measured price is completely divorced from international input prices🤷♂"
X Link 2024-01-16T16:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Any thoughts on $DOL.TO"
X Link 2024-01-16T18:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Canada's food inflation is running at +5% YoY. While inputs are running at -10% YoY I can't fully explain the gap"
X Link 2024-01-17T10:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Can you spot where interest rates went too far I can. Hey fellow Canadians please wake up. https://t.co/zQmoDEDu32 Hey fellow Canadians please wake up. https://t.co/zQmoDEDu32"
X Link 2024-01-17T11:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If as a society we want to do things like; Add a carbon tax Or Raise wages for grocery store employees That's fine but it's already a tax on consumption because it increases prices. Using interest rates to fight this is double taxing the same thing & ridiculous"
X Link 2024-01-17T11:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@cap_zay GDP per capita rolls over just as BoC inverts the yield curve after the inflation spike fighting the real estate supply that's trying to fix the RE market. Yeah it's not economically dynamic or diverse which is why policy needs to consider that"
X Link 2024-01-17T16:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"One curious thing: According to some everyone now expects a soft landing Yet 8.5% of $GM shares are sold short at sub 5x earnings while the company is buying back 20% of their shares. I don't know the company well but this feels like an odd contradiction"
X Link 2024-01-17T23:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"CEO of Royal Bank essentially says 'We're in a recession but it's going to get 3x as bad' Imagine if term bonds weren't defying the BoC insanity and were at 5% shutting down more housing starts. More payment shock coming. - RBC CEO McKay https://t.co/awNiO9IMp8 More payment shock coming. - RBC CEO McKay https://t.co/awNiO9IMp8"
X Link 2024-01-18T00:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"To those who don't see how high rates force prices higher let me ask you if Hydro Quebec spends $185B in Capex bond financed at 8% who ends up paying that coupon"
X Link 2024-01-18T06:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"And lower we go. Is this food inflation in the room with us now https://t.co/ORHodviCzD Is this food inflation in the room with us now https://t.co/ORHodviCzD"
X Link 2024-01-20T22:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I should mention that there's normally a seasonal rebound in food inflation coming in January data. We could easily see big prints despite global food disinflation & deflation"
X Link 2024-01-20T22:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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