#  @ddnanocap Waldo Waldo posts on X about $bak, debt, $dsx, math the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1515791162547875862/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] +136% - [--] Month [-----] -78% - [--] Months [------] +2,684% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1515791162547875862/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +9.10% - [--] Month [--] -71% - [--] Months [---] +2,288% ### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1515791162547875862/followers)  - [--] Week [---] +11% - [--] Month [---] +9.40% - [--] Months [---] +622% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1515791162547875862/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) 54% [stocks](/list/stocks) 49% [countries](/list/countries) 5% [currencies](/list/currencies) 2% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 1% [exchanges](/list/exchanges) 1% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) 1% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 1% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 1% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 1% **Social topic influence** [$bak](/topic/$bak) #11, [debt](/topic/debt) 15%, [$dsx](/topic/$dsx) 10%, [math](/topic/math) 8%, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) 6%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 6%, [company](/topic/company) 6%, [we are](/topic/we-are) 5%, [$lgo](/topic/$lgo) #12, [market](/topic/market) 4% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@marcelo12650938](/creator/undefined) [@pedroloftus](/creator/undefined) [@pierrecappucci1](/creator/undefined) [@kablaa](/creator/undefined) [@gothamresearch](/creator/undefined) [@flashbondtrader](/creator/undefined) [@sternjatta](/creator/undefined) [@mauiboymacro](/creator/undefined) [@allkaresearch](/creator/undefined) [@emuconspiracy](/creator/undefined) [@walststocker](/creator/undefined) [@tradingmarks](/creator/undefined) [@kimsin6](/creator/undefined) [@zannismanolis](/creator/undefined) [@acinvestorblog](/creator/undefined) [@dianashipping](/creator/undefined) [@carleygarner](/creator/undefined) [@timmymccarthy](/creator/undefined) [@cryptonoymous](/creator/undefined) [@beckontim](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Braskem S.A. American Depositary Shares (BAK)](/topic/$bak) [Diana Shipping, Inc. (DSX)](/topic/$dsx) [Carvana Co. (CVNA)](/topic/$cvna) [LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)](/topic/$lyb) [Westlake Chemical, Corp. (WLK)](/topic/$wlk) [Dow Inc (DOW)](/topic/$dow) [FAME AI (FMC)](/topic/$fmc) [Nuvectis Pharma, Inc. (NVCT)](/topic/$nvct) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "1/6 $DSX is broken. The market is pricing in 100% certainty of a bad merger that looks dead on arrival. The stock is pinned at $1.70 while the assets imply $4+. If the GNK bid fails as expected the re-rate is mechanical. Here is the liquidation math the market is ignoring" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004936653614543134) 2025-12-27T15:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/4 Pierre Brondeau is a proven deal maker. He did not return to the helm to oversee a multi-year operational slog. He is there to crystallize value. The likelihood of a sale is very high because his incentives are aligned with a liquidity event rather than a long turnaround" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2019198229825659052) 2026-02-04T23:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3/4 The math is straightforward. We are trading at [--] while conservative fair value models and DCF analysis sit between [--] and [--]. Strategic acquirers are looking at the diamide cash flows. Any offer below [--] would be a failure to capture the premium this portfolio commands" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2019198322561675469) 2026-02-04T23:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/4 filings on $LGO. Found Solicitation SP8000-26-R-0013 from the DLA. The government states Largo is "in danger of going out of business" due to Chinese market manipulation and is stepping in with an Industrial Mobilization contract to save them http://SAM.gov http://SAM.gov" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019201007230808228) 2026-02-05T00:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "3/4 contract is a 5-year IDIQ with a $125M ceiling and a max volume of [----] metric tons. The solicitation is restricted to just two suppliers: U.S. Vanadium and Largo. Offers are due this Friday Feb [--]. effectively creates a government-backed duopoly for defense-grade vanadium" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2019201393547178017) 2026-02-05T00:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@_kablaa @GothamResearch The real $CVNA story is in the SEC filings. In [--] months loans underwater at origination went from 0% to 36%. All unverified stated income. They added deep subprime borrowers but engineered the mix to keep the average FICO at [---]. Its toxic risk sold as prime. Love it" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2019228848596934846) 2026-02-05T01:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@flashbondtrader Clearly when crapto goes down this should too. This will decouple from that shit but it will take a week" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2019610723492737282) 2026-02-06T03:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$BAK valuation reset 1/3: We are running $600M EBITDA today. PRESIQ drops $350M straight to the bottom line starting next cycle. The PBR deal secures the supply floor. We effectively just re-rated from a distressed 11x to a clean 7x EBITDA without needing the market to turn" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002422757615939710) 2025-12-20T16:56Z [---] followers, 13.2K engagements "2/3: $DOW trades at 7.8x $LYB at 9x and $WLK at 10x on stable operations. Braskem was in the penalty box priced for insolvency. With supply locked and taxes cut that discount is dead. We are now the cheapest major operator with the same structural security as the majors" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002422950470074575) 2025-12-20T16:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/4 $FMC Board officially putting the company in play changes the entire structure of the trade. Authorization of strategic options including a full sale signals that management finally acknowledges the massive disconnect between the share price and the actual asset value" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2019198140877062162) 2026-02-04T23:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "4/4 The public announcement of a strategic review effectively puts a floor under the stock price. We are now holding for the acquisition premium rather than hoping for a cyclical recovery" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2019198449653256307) 2026-02-04T23:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/4 changes the thesis from a standard distressed asset play to a national security necessity. The US military is putting a floor under the company to secure the supply chain. Federal intervention to prevent insolvency is about as significant a catalyst as you can get. $LGO" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2019201523528458556) 2026-02-05T00:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@SternJatta The legacy biz is just the runwaythe real asset value is in the new active lines (Isoflex fluindapyr Dodhylex) which are guiding for 75%+ growth in [----] to reach $300$400M in revenue. the sum-of-the-parts is significantly higher than the current distress valuation" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2019225987456614440) 2026-02-05T01:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Urgency vote passed for $BAK. The [----] tax gap is getting patched which adds about $290m back to EBITDA. Huge swing for a name beaten down like this. Thesis is back on track" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2021382032681537727) 2026-02-11T00:33Z [---] followers, 10.4K engagements "What else could possibly be needed to get investor interest" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003300349789315168) 2025-12-23T03:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@pedro_loftus I had a hedge fund manager teach me the process that they would go overweight if analyst sentiment was bad but fundamentals were there and improving. This is that play. They literally used a spread sheet to allocate points by ratings. Fingers crossed" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003844768636518910) 2025-12-24T15:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@pedro_loftus U need the negative fuel to drive it when the moron analyst crowd chases price and starts recommending. Just look at silver right now. That is super dangerous at these levels but a year or two ago untouchable" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003862282061926409) 2025-12-24T16:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/5 The Spodumene Trade: $ATLX vs $ELVR The hard rock lithium sector is waking up. Elevra ($ELVR) is the producer leading the charge but Atlas Lithium ($ATLX) is the high-beta play catching a bid. Here is the setup on Atlas specifically" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004190773290401936) 2025-12-25T14:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/5 The Floor: $4.00 Institutions dont buy $10M of a microcap on a whim. The Dec [--] direct offering was priced at $4.00 flat. That is your line in the sand. Smart money stepped in before the spodumene rip. That level is now defended" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004190890823209168) 2025-12-25T14:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "1/6 $AMLIF is currently trading at $130M market cap against a combined Project NPV of $9.0B. The stock is pricing in a 98.5% discount to asset value. This valuation assumes the assets are stranded. They are not" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004216407706505646) 2025-12-25T15:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/6 The Falchani deposit (Peru) is volcanic tuff not pegmatite. This geological distinction dictates the processing. It utilizes acid tank leaching rather than the high-temperature roasting required for spodumene. This eliminates calcination lowering energy intensity and OPEX" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004216646999986565) 2025-12-25T15:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3/6 The immediate catalyst is the Macusani Uranium spin-out (announced Dec [--] 2025). Uranium futures are trading at $81/lb. Macusani asset alone has an NPV that exceeds American Lithiums enterprise value. Shareholders receive the uranium while retaining the lithium assets" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004216875535024313) 2025-12-25T15:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/6 The recent Nasdaq delisting was a voluntary strategic action not a compliance failure. Management delisted to avoid a reverse split (required to maintain the $1.00 Nasdaq minimum). Moving to the TSX-V preserved the share structure and prevented technical selling pressure" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004217007148040388) 2025-12-25T15:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "5/6 Valuation: Falchani updated PEA (Feb 2024) shows an After-Tax NPV(8%) of $5.11B USD. The TLC project (Nevada) adds $3.26B. The current share price of $0.51 reflects a 0.015x NAV multiple. A re-rate to a standard developer multiple of 0.2x NAV implies a market cap of $1.8B" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004217132872356051) 2025-12-25T15:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Marcelo12650938 Less market dumping from china yeaaaaa" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004219956704301144) 2025-12-25T15:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$lgo nice pump and dump today. This one will require patience" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004689466330689671) 2025-12-26T23:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5/6 Why the discount Fear. The market hates the financing structure of the GNK bid which would load them with $1B in new debt. But Genco lowered their poison pill and has ghosted the offer for a month. Signs point to this deal dying. If it dies the leverage fear vanishes" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004936922595250259) 2025-12-27T15:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6/6 Without the merger overhang you own a cash-rich operator trading at 0.35x NAV. Downside is capped by the cash and liquid securities (over $3/sh gross). Upside is a double just to get to a standard 0.7x NAV discount" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004937002303840376) 2025-12-27T15:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "4/12 LIQUIDITY STATUS: Largo executed a binding term sheet in Oct [----] to defer $84.2M in principal debt payments until March [----]. The agreement includes a mandatory cash sweep covenant that forces 80% of any capital raised or asset sale to be used for principal repayment" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007518343054672087) 2026-01-03T18:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5/12 TRADE POLICY: Executive Order [-----] tariffs on Brazilian imports to 50%. This currently applies to the High Purity Vanadium (V2O5) used in aerospace and defense. US defense supply chain must now pay a 50% duty on Brazilian metal or formally seek a National Security exemption" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007518624253358532) 2026-01-03T18:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$nvct https://open.substack.com/pub/valuechaser1/p/nuvectis-pharma-nvct-reaffirmingr=v6am3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://open.substack.com/pub/valuechaser1/p/nuvectis-pharma-nvct-reaffirmingr=v6am3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1900753152661410244) 2025-03-15T03:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3/8: Under this scenario the real deal (politics) will be publicly justified as a formal "U.S.-Brazil Critical Minerals Security Pact"" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1989029509618872574) 2025-11-13T17:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/8: The justification will be ironclad: EU just sanctioned the top Russian vanadium producer (EVRAZ). 80% of vanadium supply is from China/Russia. U.S. defense & a U.S. battery venture (Storion) need this vanadium.The White House will then quietly add vanadium to exemption list" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1989029829266817527) 2025-11-13T17:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$asps sure sell off makes sense https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/13/foreclosures-rise-october-housing-market-distress.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/13/foreclosures-rise-october-housing-market-distress.html" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1989040367631556803) 2025-11-13T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MauiBoyMacro $asps what else can i say" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1989173194813809124) 2025-11-14T03:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "1/4 Seeing some bad takes on the Petrobras "no capitalization" comments. The bear case that this implies RJ (bankruptcy) because no new cash is coming in doesn't add up. Here is why that logic is flawed. $BAK #BRKM5" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1997331436341235751) 2025-12-06T15:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "4/4 Real takeaway: "No capitalization" means no equity offering. The massive dilution risk that has capped the stock is effectively off the table. Since this news hit Friday after the US close the market hasn't actually priced that safety in yet" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1997331840986730788) 2025-12-06T15:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "1/6 The "no dilution" comment on the $BAK / Novonor deal is the most critical piece of info from Friday. It confirms this is a secondary market transaction. IG4 is taking Novonors keys but the company isn't printing new shares" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1997698387479785607) 2025-12-07T16:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "3/6 Here is the mechanic: IG4 likely buys Novonors holding company debt (held by banks) and swaps it for the 50.1% voting stake. Novonor gets washed out. Minority shareholders keep their % ownership. That is the "no dilution" part" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1997698558276063620) 2025-12-07T16:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/6 But since no new money enters $BAK treasury how do they fix the 14x leverage They can't issue equity. They have to play "amend and extend" with creditors. The goal will be pushing the [----] maturity wall out to 2030+" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1997698659656622511) 2025-12-07T16:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/6 If IG4 closes and the President signs PRESIQ a reasonable short-term price target for $BAK is $4.50 - $5.25. This represents a 50-70% upside from the current $3.00 range. Here is the math on why that valuation holds up" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1997702575295172859) 2025-12-07T16:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "2/6 First the "PRESIQ Bump." The tax benefits from the new law are estimated to add $300M-$380M to annual EBITDA. That is massive. With current EBITDA running at $600M annualized this law alone potentially increases operating cash flow by 50" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1997702658598342776) 2025-12-07T16:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3/6 Second the "Governance Premium." $BAK has traded at a steep discount because Novonor is a distressed seller. IG4 entering removes the bankruptcy overhang. Historically removing a "bad owner" discount can expand the valuation multiple by 1-2 turns" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1997702800537768273) 2025-12-07T16:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ALLKAResearch U got this. Floor is in for $bak assuming either the presiq or IG4 go thru" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1997705780771041775) 2025-12-07T16:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@EmuConspiracy @walststocker The "Bondholders" are the banks (Ita Bradesco etc.) who lent to Novonor using Braskem shares as collateral. They are stuck. IG4 is offering to buy that debt for pennies on the dollar and convert it to ownership. This cleans up the mess without hurting $BAK own balance sheet" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1998133838875439357) 2025-12-08T20:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/6 Seeing way too much confusion on the IG4 deal structure for $BAK. You have to stop conflating HoldCo pain with OpCo mechanics. Here is the actual sequence and why a second deal for the bonds is mathematically guaranteed" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1998136423887819143) 2025-12-08T21:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/6 Start with the Novonor deal. IG4 buys the bad debt from the banks and swaps it for the voting stake. Ownership transfers. At this stage nothing happens to $BAK bonds because those are legal obligations of the operating company not the holding company" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1998136472680251442) 2025-12-08T21:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3/6 Next comes the trigger. Once IG4 takes the shares it sets off the Change of Control clauses in the $BAK international bonds. Since ratings are already junk status this gives bondholders a Put Option. They can force the company to buy back paper at [---] par" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1998136526258229730) 2025-12-08T21:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/6 Now look at the balance sheet. $BAK is rated CCC+ and does not have the liquidity to repurchase billions in bonds at a premium. If they tried to honor that Put Option in cash they go insolvent immediately. The math simply does not work" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1998136567937065158) 2025-12-08T21:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5/6 This is the second deal everyone is missing. To close the takeover $BAK has to launch a Consent Solicitation. They ask bondholders to waive the Put Option in exchange for a fee or a coupon bump. Terms get modified so the deal can actually close" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1998136640049680559) 2025-12-08T21:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6/6 Novonor banks take the haircut on the way out. $BAK bondholders get paid a fee to waive the trigger. Equity gets a solvent partner and the overhang is gone. If you don't distinguish between HoldCo restructuring and OpCo waivers you are reading the wrong docs" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1998136727299314112) 2025-12-08T21:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/5 People betting against $BAK are fighting the Brazilian state. You have to understand the "Too Big To Fail" doctrine here. Braskem is not just a company; it is the feedstock for the entire Brazilian industrial supply chain.If $BAK stops Brazil stops. The government knows this" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1998142449496297515) 2025-12-08T21:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/5 The State banks (BNDES BB) are already sitting on billions of bad Novonor debt secured by $BAK shares.They have two choices: Let $BAK fail wipe out the collateral and take a 100% loss. Backstop a deal take a haircut and keep the strategic asset alive. They will choose #2" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1998142585723138169) 2025-12-08T21:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3/5 The Novonor - IG4 transition is the biggest upgrade in the company's history. We are moving from a bankrupt paralyzed construction firm (Novonor) to a solvent capital-rich partner (IG4). This removes the "Zombie Discount" that has crushed the stock for [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1998142641809297543) 2025-12-08T21:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/5 Look at the legislation. PRESIQ isn't random. Lulas base is the unions. The chemical sector supports 1.7M jobs. PRESIQ was pushed through to guarantee those jobs aren't lost to US/China imports. It is a direct subsidy to keep $BAK competitive and the unions happy" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1998142713909133714) 2025-12-08T21:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5/5 Summary: The Govt can't afford a default (National Security). The Banks can't afford a zero (Balance Sheet). Lula can't afford the unemployment (Politics). The floor is political. The upside is financial. $BAK" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1998142785766203885) 2025-12-08T21:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/3 [--] reasons $bak ch11 is essentially off the table. first the banks. bndes and bb are sitting on billions of novonor debt backed by these shares. letting opco fail means state banks eat a massive loss. gov simply wont let that happen. they backstop the deal to save their ass" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1998243286235181226) 2025-12-09T04:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@TradingMarks Taking a look at the PL 892/2025 timeline. The December [--] estimate appears to overlook the November [--] holiday and counts the day of receipt as day one. Adjusting for standard business day rules the 15-day window actually extends to December [--]. Worth noting for tracking $BAK" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1998443027749285965) 2025-12-09T17:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$asps yep sell off makes total sense. you would think the lenders would hold the shares a bit in this environment but i guess not https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/us-home-prices-negative.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/us-home-prices-negative.html" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1999124794084839578) 2025-12-11T14:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$BAK watch the calendar. The [--] business day clock for Lula to sign the PRESIQ bill is effectively up. Senate passed it mid-November. If the President doesn't veto it explicitly by the deadline likely Monday or Tuesday it becomes law automatically through tacit sanction. 1/3" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1999867488063094879) 2025-12-13T15:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/5 The market is selling $BAK on the IG4 deal structure but its ignoring a hard legislative deadline this Friday. Investors are reacting to the debt swap mechanics while overlooking the chemical industry subsidy bill that is about to become law" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2000745751010242659) 2025-12-16T01:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$bak [--] mins to go until tacit approval of PRESIQ" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002201076179583153) 2025-12-20T02:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Lets talk numbers because this isn't a small subsidy. We're looking at $300M to $380M USD in annual tax credits starting next cycle. For a company trading at these distressed levels that kind of guaranteed cash flow changes the entire balance sheet math overnight. 3/5" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002386696646603249) 2025-12-20T14:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Combine this with the $17.8B Petrobras supply deal signed Thursday. In the span of [--] hours Braskem secured its feedstock for the next decade AND slashed its tax bill. The "bankruptcy risk" narrative is dead. The "supply cliff" fear is gone. 4/5" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002386814993084426) 2025-12-20T14:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@kimsin6 The math at sub-$3 is broken. PRESIQ cash flow alone adds $2.50/share to EV at conservative multiples. Were trading like a distressed asset when the floor was just secured by the gov and PBR. Easy re-rate to $4+ on safety/margins before the chemical cycle even turns" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002421701708296221) 2025-12-20T16:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/5 The Brazilian government slipped the PRESIQ veto into the Official Gazette today (Dec 22) right at the deadline before the recess. While the headline looks bad for $BAK the details suggest this is a political delay tactic rather than a death blow to the program" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003161302114664690) 2025-12-22T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/5 What happened: The President sanctioned the core PRESIQ framework but used a "Partial Veto" to gut the specific funding articles (Arts [--] [--] & 8). These were the sections that defined the exact PIS/COFINS tax credit rates for 2025/26the guaranteed margins Braskem needed" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003161383605797339) 2025-12-22T17:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/3 Ive never seen a distressed thesis de-risk this fast. In seven days $BAK solved its three biggest existential threats. First was the Petrobras contract last weeka $17.8B deal securing feedstock through the next decade. Input risk is effectively zero" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003299676154687584) 2025-12-23T03:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Marcelo12650938 My current understanding of this shit show on PRESIQ" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003821597325672880) 2025-12-24T13:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Marcelo12650938 1/4 Correcting some of my earlier translation mistakes on the PRESIQ bill for $BAK. I initially thought the [----] credits were intact but a closer read of the Dirio Oficial shows the government vetoed the immediate relief. Specifically Arts [--] [--] and [--] were struck down" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003825836705927659) 2025-12-24T13:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$cvna turd finally implode no more index buying and valued as a distressed subprime auto lender (of course with a sister organization to off load the bad books on daddy's bankroll). garcia would say "gives us the best chance to keep the party going". does it" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2006495303315382358) 2025-12-31T22:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$bak nice hate selling not even tax loss. Lets get this done with" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007131444142080361) 2026-01-02T16:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "10/12 SURVIVAL (BASE CASE): If the sale bridges liquidity to late [----] and exemptions are granted the stock re-rates to a standard producer multiple. normalized EBITDA of $60M (at historic $8.50/lb avg) a 5x EV/EBITDA implies a share price of $3.25 roughly 3x current levels" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007520191283089737) 2026-01-03T18:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ZannisManolis Not pretty but looks bottomed with $gnk stake" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2008692280027197750) 2026-01-07T00:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$arry Impact of New Broad Tariffs on Array Technologies (ARRY) https://open.substack.com/pub/valuechaser1/p/impact-of-new-broad-tariffs-on-arrayr=v6am3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://open.substack.com/pub/valuechaser1/p/impact-of-new-broad-tariffs-on-arrayr=v6am3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1907959187092680841) 2025-04-04T00:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$BAK silent victory. The Friday midnight deadline passed with zero noise from Brasilia. No veto. No drama. Just the clock running out. That means PRESIQ is officially a go via "Tacit Sanction." The turnaround thesis just got its second massive green light in [--] hours. 1/5" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2002386272657068325) 2025-12-20T14:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "1/4 $BAK $BRKM5 filing is out for the PRESIQ law. You're going to see headlines about a "partial veto" from the President. Ignore the noiseit's not a thesis killer. The veto likely trimmed some fringe benefits but the core "bridge" to [----] was left completely intact" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2003280808380125574) 2025-12-23T01:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/12 COMPETITOR LIQUIDATION: Bushveld Minerals (South Africa) filed for liquidation on April [--] [----] and was delisted from AIM in May. This removes [----] to [----] mtV per year from global supply represents approximately 15% of non-Chinese and non-Russian primary production" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007517955131949249) 2026-01-03T18:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3/12 MARKET POSITIONING: The departure of Bushveld leaves a significant gap in Western supply chains. With Evraz (Russia) under strict sanctions and Bushveld operations offline Largo remains the sole major Western-aligned primary vanadium producer currently operating at scale" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007518140411076864) 2026-01-03T18:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6/x This strategy means $DSX revenues are set to improve as all these new higher-paying contracts replace old cheap ones. Analyst estimates agree forecasting revenue growth from $224M to $264M by 2026" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981510503055970668) 2025-10-23T23:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "5/5 Yes the Paliou family governance is bad for common. But at a $1.60 cost basis you have a margin of safety. Heads = Special dividend (you get paid). Tails = You own ships for pennies on the dollar. Asymmetric bet. Long $DSX" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2000233515292746122) 2025-12-14T15:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ACInvestorBlog that company being acquired $GUE had a bunch of smart money slip in MUFG (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group): Also filed a "Becoming a substantial holder" notice on January [--] 2026" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2017043985588769194) 2026-01-30T01:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/x $dsx The dry bulk macro is split. The "bullish" case is for large Capesize ships: high rates ($26k/day) + a low orderbook (few new ships" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981509855245390165) 2025-10-23T23:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3/x So how is @DianaShipping ($DSX) exposed Their 36-vessel fleet is weighted 2:1 toward the "bearish" segment. 1/3 (12 vessels) are in the "bullish" Capesize class. 2/3 (24 vessels) are in the "bearish" Panamax/Ultramax class" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981510168203469163) 2025-10-23T23:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "4/x But $DSX management has a clear strategy. For their 1/3 "bullish" Capesize fleet they're cashing in renewing contracts at peak market rates (e.g. one ship moving from $20k to $26k/day" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981510307542683932) 2025-10-23T23:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "5/x For their 2/3 "bearish" Panamax fleet they're de-risking. They are locking in new rates (e.g. $8.4k ➔ $11.7k) that while below today's spot market guarantee strong profits through the expected [----] downturn. Tweet 6/9: 206" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981510391654969713) 2025-10-23T23:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "7/x This brings us to the valuation disconnect. The market seems to be pricing in only the risks (2/3 fleet exposure high debt) and none of the rewards (improving revenue smart chartering). $DSX currently trades at a Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of just 0.4x" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981510623742816454) 2025-10-23T23:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "8/x To put that 0.4x P/B in perspective: [--]. It's at the low end of its 5-year historical range (0.4x-0.8x). [--]. It's a massive 50%+ discount to peers like $GOGL $SBLK & $GNK which trade at 0.8x-0.9x P/B" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981510749710094758) 2025-10-23T23:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "9/x The core debate: The market is pricing $DSX at [----] crisis levels. Is this a deep value opportunity (due to locked-in revenue) or a value trap (due to fleet mix & debt)" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/1981510869889491057) 2025-10-23T23:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/5 The math on $DSX right now is actually offensive. If youre buying at these levels ($1.80) you arent paying for a shipping company. You are buying a pile of $GNK stock and getting [--] dry bulk vessels for scrap value. Here is the arbitrage trade nobody is talking about" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2000232646463614987) 2025-12-14T15:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/5 Why "Deal Failure" = Bullish You WANT Genco to say no. If the deal goes Diana loads up on debt to fund it. When it fails Diana is stuck with a massive $130M liquid asset they can't control. The most logical exit Spin it off to us. A special dividend of $1.00/share" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2000233237935976832) 2025-12-14T15:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/2 Lets run the "grown-up" math on $DSX using Enterprise Value (EV). $200M Market Cap + $517M Net Debt = $717M Total EV. Subtract the $120M liquid Genco ($GNK) stake and you are paying an adjusted EV of $597M for the operating fleet. That comes out to $15.7M per vessel" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2000263322399363188) 2025-12-14T17:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2/6 Start with the fleet valuation. Management confirmed their net debt to asset value is 54%. With net debt sitting around $511m that implies the steel in the water is currently worth $946m. That is conservative given December capesize rates pushing $44k" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004936723869106513) 2025-12-27T15:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "3/6 Now add the liquidity. Q3 cash on hand was $140m. They also own 6.4m shares of GNK which is worth another $120m at current market prices. Total assets (Fleet + Cash + GNK stake) come out to roughly $1.2 billion. Total debt is only $651m" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004936779607277747) 2025-12-27T15:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "4/6 Do the subtraction. $1.2B in assets minus $651m in debt leaves $555m in Net Asset Value. With 115.8m shares outstanding that is a liquidation value of $4.79 per share. The stock trades at $1.70. You are paying [--] cents on the dollar for hard assets" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2004936835106291943) 2025-12-27T15:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "1/12 $LGO UPDATE: Market Structure & Asset Valuation Analysis Recent filings and trade data confirm a structural shift in the vanadium market This thread breaks down competitor liquidation trade policy changes and non-core asset valuations based on Q4 [----] data" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007517681721995377) 2026-01-03T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "11/12 BLUE SKY VALUATION (CYCLE PEAK): If the Bushveld/Russia supply void causes a shortage spike to $12/lb+ in [----] margins expand significantly. At $144M implied EBITDA the valuation can exceed $600M market cap ($8.00+ per share). This assumes no further equity dilution" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007520348640514325) 2026-01-03T18:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "12/12 This is a call option. The bear case is insolvency in Q2 [----] if the asset sale fails. The bull case is a 3x-8x return driven by the tungsten liquidity bridge and US trade exemptions. You are paying for the option on survival not current operations" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007520557428875275) 2026-01-03T18:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@carleygarner congrats i think you got this one. odd circumstance of unfortunate events for oil but your call will be correct. $acdc puke to [----] then buy. thx great insights" [X Link](https://x.com/ddnanocap/status/2007609986365665650) 2026-01-04T00:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@ddnanocap Waldo
Waldo posts on X about $bak, debt, $dsx, math the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [---] #
- [--] Week [-----] +136%
- [--] Month [-----] -78%
- [--] Months [------] +2,684%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +9.10%
- [--] Month [--] -71%
- [--] Months [---] +2,288%
Followers: [---] #
- [--] Week [---] +11%
- [--] Month [---] +9.40%
- [--] Months [---] +622%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance 54% stocks 49% countries 5% currencies 2% cryptocurrencies 1% exchanges 1% travel destinations 1% automotive brands 1% social networks 1% technology brands 1%
Social topic influence $bak #11, debt 15%, $dsx 10%, math 8%, liquidity 6%, in the 6%, company 6%, we are 5%, $lgo #12, market 4%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @marcelo12650938 @pedroloftus @pierrecappucci1 @kablaa @gothamresearch @flashbondtrader @sternjatta @mauiboymacro @allkaresearch @emuconspiracy @walststocker @tradingmarks @kimsin6 @zannismanolis @acinvestorblog @dianashipping @carleygarner @timmymccarthy @cryptonoymous @beckontim
Top assets mentioned Braskem S.A. American Depositary Shares (BAK) Diana Shipping, Inc. (DSX) Carvana Co. (CVNA) LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) Westlake Chemical, Corp. (WLK) Dow Inc (DOW) FAME AI (FMC) Nuvectis Pharma, Inc. (NVCT)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"1/6 $DSX is broken. The market is pricing in 100% certainty of a bad merger that looks dead on arrival. The stock is pinned at $1.70 while the assets imply $4+. If the GNK bid fails as expected the re-rate is mechanical. Here is the liquidation math the market is ignoring"
X Link 2025-12-27T15:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/4 Pierre Brondeau is a proven deal maker. He did not return to the helm to oversee a multi-year operational slog. He is there to crystallize value. The likelihood of a sale is very high because his incentives are aligned with a liquidity event rather than a long turnaround"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3/4 The math is straightforward. We are trading at [--] while conservative fair value models and DCF analysis sit between [--] and [--]. Strategic acquirers are looking at the diamide cash flows. Any offer below [--] would be a failure to capture the premium this portfolio commands"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/4 filings on $LGO. Found Solicitation SP8000-26-R-0013 from the DLA. The government states Largo is "in danger of going out of business" due to Chinese market manipulation and is stepping in with an Industrial Mobilization contract to save them http://SAM.gov http://SAM.gov"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"3/4 contract is a 5-year IDIQ with a $125M ceiling and a max volume of [----] metric tons. The solicitation is restricted to just two suppliers: U.S. Vanadium and Largo. Offers are due this Friday Feb [--]. effectively creates a government-backed duopoly for defense-grade vanadium"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@_kablaa @GothamResearch The real $CVNA story is in the SEC filings. In [--] months loans underwater at origination went from 0% to 36%. All unverified stated income. They added deep subprime borrowers but engineered the mix to keep the average FICO at [---]. Its toxic risk sold as prime. Love it"
X Link 2026-02-05T01:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@flashbondtrader Clearly when crapto goes down this should too. This will decouple from that shit but it will take a week"
X Link 2026-02-06T03:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$BAK valuation reset 1/3: We are running $600M EBITDA today. PRESIQ drops $350M straight to the bottom line starting next cycle. The PBR deal secures the supply floor. We effectively just re-rated from a distressed 11x to a clean 7x EBITDA without needing the market to turn"
X Link 2025-12-20T16:56Z [---] followers, 13.2K engagements
"2/3: $DOW trades at 7.8x $LYB at 9x and $WLK at 10x on stable operations. Braskem was in the penalty box priced for insolvency. With supply locked and taxes cut that discount is dead. We are now the cheapest major operator with the same structural security as the majors"
X Link 2025-12-20T16:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/4 $FMC Board officially putting the company in play changes the entire structure of the trade. Authorization of strategic options including a full sale signals that management finally acknowledges the massive disconnect between the share price and the actual asset value"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"4/4 The public announcement of a strategic review effectively puts a floor under the stock price. We are now holding for the acquisition premium rather than hoping for a cyclical recovery"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/4 changes the thesis from a standard distressed asset play to a national security necessity. The US military is putting a floor under the company to secure the supply chain. Federal intervention to prevent insolvency is about as significant a catalyst as you can get. $LGO"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@SternJatta The legacy biz is just the runwaythe real asset value is in the new active lines (Isoflex fluindapyr Dodhylex) which are guiding for 75%+ growth in [----] to reach $300$400M in revenue. the sum-of-the-parts is significantly higher than the current distress valuation"
X Link 2026-02-05T01:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Urgency vote passed for $BAK. The [----] tax gap is getting patched which adds about $290m back to EBITDA. Huge swing for a name beaten down like this. Thesis is back on track"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:33Z [---] followers, 10.4K engagements
"What else could possibly be needed to get investor interest"
X Link 2025-12-23T03:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pedro_loftus I had a hedge fund manager teach me the process that they would go overweight if analyst sentiment was bad but fundamentals were there and improving. This is that play. They literally used a spread sheet to allocate points by ratings. Fingers crossed"
X Link 2025-12-24T15:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@pedro_loftus U need the negative fuel to drive it when the moron analyst crowd chases price and starts recommending. Just look at silver right now. That is super dangerous at these levels but a year or two ago untouchable"
X Link 2025-12-24T16:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/5 The Spodumene Trade: $ATLX vs $ELVR The hard rock lithium sector is waking up. Elevra ($ELVR) is the producer leading the charge but Atlas Lithium ($ATLX) is the high-beta play catching a bid. Here is the setup on Atlas specifically"
X Link 2025-12-25T14:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/5 The Floor: $4.00 Institutions dont buy $10M of a microcap on a whim. The Dec [--] direct offering was priced at $4.00 flat. That is your line in the sand. Smart money stepped in before the spodumene rip. That level is now defended"
X Link 2025-12-25T14:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1/6 $AMLIF is currently trading at $130M market cap against a combined Project NPV of $9.0B. The stock is pricing in a 98.5% discount to asset value. This valuation assumes the assets are stranded. They are not"
X Link 2025-12-25T15:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/6 The Falchani deposit (Peru) is volcanic tuff not pegmatite. This geological distinction dictates the processing. It utilizes acid tank leaching rather than the high-temperature roasting required for spodumene. This eliminates calcination lowering energy intensity and OPEX"
X Link 2025-12-25T15:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3/6 The immediate catalyst is the Macusani Uranium spin-out (announced Dec [--] 2025). Uranium futures are trading at $81/lb. Macusani asset alone has an NPV that exceeds American Lithiums enterprise value. Shareholders receive the uranium while retaining the lithium assets"
X Link 2025-12-25T15:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/6 The recent Nasdaq delisting was a voluntary strategic action not a compliance failure. Management delisted to avoid a reverse split (required to maintain the $1.00 Nasdaq minimum). Moving to the TSX-V preserved the share structure and prevented technical selling pressure"
X Link 2025-12-25T15:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"5/6 Valuation: Falchani updated PEA (Feb 2024) shows an After-Tax NPV(8%) of $5.11B USD. The TLC project (Nevada) adds $3.26B. The current share price of $0.51 reflects a 0.015x NAV multiple. A re-rate to a standard developer multiple of 0.2x NAV implies a market cap of $1.8B"
X Link 2025-12-25T15:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Marcelo12650938 Less market dumping from china yeaaaaa"
X Link 2025-12-25T15:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$lgo nice pump and dump today. This one will require patience"
X Link 2025-12-26T23:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5/6 Why the discount Fear. The market hates the financing structure of the GNK bid which would load them with $1B in new debt. But Genco lowered their poison pill and has ghosted the offer for a month. Signs point to this deal dying. If it dies the leverage fear vanishes"
X Link 2025-12-27T15:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6/6 Without the merger overhang you own a cash-rich operator trading at 0.35x NAV. Downside is capped by the cash and liquid securities (over $3/sh gross). Upside is a double just to get to a standard 0.7x NAV discount"
X Link 2025-12-27T15:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"4/12 LIQUIDITY STATUS: Largo executed a binding term sheet in Oct [----] to defer $84.2M in principal debt payments until March [----]. The agreement includes a mandatory cash sweep covenant that forces 80% of any capital raised or asset sale to be used for principal repayment"
X Link 2026-01-03T18:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5/12 TRADE POLICY: Executive Order [-----] tariffs on Brazilian imports to 50%. This currently applies to the High Purity Vanadium (V2O5) used in aerospace and defense. US defense supply chain must now pay a 50% duty on Brazilian metal or formally seek a National Security exemption"
X Link 2026-01-03T18:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$nvct https://open.substack.com/pub/valuechaser1/p/nuvectis-pharma-nvct-reaffirmingr=v6am3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://open.substack.com/pub/valuechaser1/p/nuvectis-pharma-nvct-reaffirmingr=v6am3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false"
X Link 2025-03-15T03:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3/8: Under this scenario the real deal (politics) will be publicly justified as a formal "U.S.-Brazil Critical Minerals Security Pact""
X Link 2025-11-13T17:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/8: The justification will be ironclad: EU just sanctioned the top Russian vanadium producer (EVRAZ). 80% of vanadium supply is from China/Russia. U.S. defense & a U.S. battery venture (Storion) need this vanadium.The White House will then quietly add vanadium to exemption list"
X Link 2025-11-13T17:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$asps sure sell off makes sense https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/13/foreclosures-rise-october-housing-market-distress.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/13/foreclosures-rise-october-housing-market-distress.html"
X Link 2025-11-13T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MauiBoyMacro $asps what else can i say"
X Link 2025-11-14T03:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1/4 Seeing some bad takes on the Petrobras "no capitalization" comments. The bear case that this implies RJ (bankruptcy) because no new cash is coming in doesn't add up. Here is why that logic is flawed. $BAK #BRKM5"
X Link 2025-12-06T15:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"4/4 Real takeaway: "No capitalization" means no equity offering. The massive dilution risk that has capped the stock is effectively off the table. Since this news hit Friday after the US close the market hasn't actually priced that safety in yet"
X Link 2025-12-06T15:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"1/6 The "no dilution" comment on the $BAK / Novonor deal is the most critical piece of info from Friday. It confirms this is a secondary market transaction. IG4 is taking Novonors keys but the company isn't printing new shares"
X Link 2025-12-07T16:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"3/6 Here is the mechanic: IG4 likely buys Novonors holding company debt (held by banks) and swaps it for the 50.1% voting stake. Novonor gets washed out. Minority shareholders keep their % ownership. That is the "no dilution" part"
X Link 2025-12-07T16:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/6 But since no new money enters $BAK treasury how do they fix the 14x leverage They can't issue equity. They have to play "amend and extend" with creditors. The goal will be pushing the [----] maturity wall out to 2030+"
X Link 2025-12-07T16:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/6 If IG4 closes and the President signs PRESIQ a reasonable short-term price target for $BAK is $4.50 - $5.25. This represents a 50-70% upside from the current $3.00 range. Here is the math on why that valuation holds up"
X Link 2025-12-07T16:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"2/6 First the "PRESIQ Bump." The tax benefits from the new law are estimated to add $300M-$380M to annual EBITDA. That is massive. With current EBITDA running at $600M annualized this law alone potentially increases operating cash flow by 50"
X Link 2025-12-07T16:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3/6 Second the "Governance Premium." $BAK has traded at a steep discount because Novonor is a distressed seller. IG4 entering removes the bankruptcy overhang. Historically removing a "bad owner" discount can expand the valuation multiple by 1-2 turns"
X Link 2025-12-07T16:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ALLKAResearch U got this. Floor is in for $bak assuming either the presiq or IG4 go thru"
X Link 2025-12-07T16:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@EmuConspiracy @walststocker The "Bondholders" are the banks (Ita Bradesco etc.) who lent to Novonor using Braskem shares as collateral. They are stuck. IG4 is offering to buy that debt for pennies on the dollar and convert it to ownership. This cleans up the mess without hurting $BAK own balance sheet"
X Link 2025-12-08T20:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/6 Seeing way too much confusion on the IG4 deal structure for $BAK. You have to stop conflating HoldCo pain with OpCo mechanics. Here is the actual sequence and why a second deal for the bonds is mathematically guaranteed"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/6 Start with the Novonor deal. IG4 buys the bad debt from the banks and swaps it for the voting stake. Ownership transfers. At this stage nothing happens to $BAK bonds because those are legal obligations of the operating company not the holding company"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3/6 Next comes the trigger. Once IG4 takes the shares it sets off the Change of Control clauses in the $BAK international bonds. Since ratings are already junk status this gives bondholders a Put Option. They can force the company to buy back paper at [---] par"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/6 Now look at the balance sheet. $BAK is rated CCC+ and does not have the liquidity to repurchase billions in bonds at a premium. If they tried to honor that Put Option in cash they go insolvent immediately. The math simply does not work"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5/6 This is the second deal everyone is missing. To close the takeover $BAK has to launch a Consent Solicitation. They ask bondholders to waive the Put Option in exchange for a fee or a coupon bump. Terms get modified so the deal can actually close"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6/6 Novonor banks take the haircut on the way out. $BAK bondholders get paid a fee to waive the trigger. Equity gets a solvent partner and the overhang is gone. If you don't distinguish between HoldCo restructuring and OpCo waivers you are reading the wrong docs"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/5 People betting against $BAK are fighting the Brazilian state. You have to understand the "Too Big To Fail" doctrine here. Braskem is not just a company; it is the feedstock for the entire Brazilian industrial supply chain.If $BAK stops Brazil stops. The government knows this"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/5 The State banks (BNDES BB) are already sitting on billions of bad Novonor debt secured by $BAK shares.They have two choices: Let $BAK fail wipe out the collateral and take a 100% loss. Backstop a deal take a haircut and keep the strategic asset alive. They will choose #2"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3/5 The Novonor - IG4 transition is the biggest upgrade in the company's history. We are moving from a bankrupt paralyzed construction firm (Novonor) to a solvent capital-rich partner (IG4). This removes the "Zombie Discount" that has crushed the stock for [--] years"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/5 Look at the legislation. PRESIQ isn't random. Lulas base is the unions. The chemical sector supports 1.7M jobs. PRESIQ was pushed through to guarantee those jobs aren't lost to US/China imports. It is a direct subsidy to keep $BAK competitive and the unions happy"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5/5 Summary: The Govt can't afford a default (National Security). The Banks can't afford a zero (Balance Sheet). Lula can't afford the unemployment (Politics). The floor is political. The upside is financial. $BAK"
X Link 2025-12-08T21:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/3 [--] reasons $bak ch11 is essentially off the table. first the banks. bndes and bb are sitting on billions of novonor debt backed by these shares. letting opco fail means state banks eat a massive loss. gov simply wont let that happen. they backstop the deal to save their ass"
X Link 2025-12-09T04:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TradingMarks Taking a look at the PL 892/2025 timeline. The December [--] estimate appears to overlook the November [--] holiday and counts the day of receipt as day one. Adjusting for standard business day rules the 15-day window actually extends to December [--]. Worth noting for tracking $BAK"
X Link 2025-12-09T17:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$asps yep sell off makes total sense. you would think the lenders would hold the shares a bit in this environment but i guess not https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/us-home-prices-negative.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/us-home-prices-negative.html"
X Link 2025-12-11T14:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$BAK watch the calendar. The [--] business day clock for Lula to sign the PRESIQ bill is effectively up. Senate passed it mid-November. If the President doesn't veto it explicitly by the deadline likely Monday or Tuesday it becomes law automatically through tacit sanction. 1/3"
X Link 2025-12-13T15:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/5 The market is selling $BAK on the IG4 deal structure but its ignoring a hard legislative deadline this Friday. Investors are reacting to the debt swap mechanics while overlooking the chemical industry subsidy bill that is about to become law"
X Link 2025-12-16T01:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$bak [--] mins to go until tacit approval of PRESIQ"
X Link 2025-12-20T02:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Lets talk numbers because this isn't a small subsidy. We're looking at $300M to $380M USD in annual tax credits starting next cycle. For a company trading at these distressed levels that kind of guaranteed cash flow changes the entire balance sheet math overnight. 3/5"
X Link 2025-12-20T14:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Combine this with the $17.8B Petrobras supply deal signed Thursday. In the span of [--] hours Braskem secured its feedstock for the next decade AND slashed its tax bill. The "bankruptcy risk" narrative is dead. The "supply cliff" fear is gone. 4/5"
X Link 2025-12-20T14:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@kimsin6 The math at sub-$3 is broken. PRESIQ cash flow alone adds $2.50/share to EV at conservative multiples. Were trading like a distressed asset when the floor was just secured by the gov and PBR. Easy re-rate to $4+ on safety/margins before the chemical cycle even turns"
X Link 2025-12-20T16:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/5 The Brazilian government slipped the PRESIQ veto into the Official Gazette today (Dec 22) right at the deadline before the recess. While the headline looks bad for $BAK the details suggest this is a political delay tactic rather than a death blow to the program"
X Link 2025-12-22T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/5 What happened: The President sanctioned the core PRESIQ framework but used a "Partial Veto" to gut the specific funding articles (Arts [--] [--] & 8). These were the sections that defined the exact PIS/COFINS tax credit rates for 2025/26the guaranteed margins Braskem needed"
X Link 2025-12-22T17:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/3 Ive never seen a distressed thesis de-risk this fast. In seven days $BAK solved its three biggest existential threats. First was the Petrobras contract last weeka $17.8B deal securing feedstock through the next decade. Input risk is effectively zero"
X Link 2025-12-23T03:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Marcelo12650938 My current understanding of this shit show on PRESIQ"
X Link 2025-12-24T13:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Marcelo12650938 1/4 Correcting some of my earlier translation mistakes on the PRESIQ bill for $BAK. I initially thought the [----] credits were intact but a closer read of the Dirio Oficial shows the government vetoed the immediate relief. Specifically Arts [--] [--] and [--] were struck down"
X Link 2025-12-24T13:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$cvna turd finally implode no more index buying and valued as a distressed subprime auto lender (of course with a sister organization to off load the bad books on daddy's bankroll). garcia would say "gives us the best chance to keep the party going". does it"
X Link 2025-12-31T22:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$bak nice hate selling not even tax loss. Lets get this done with"
X Link 2026-01-02T16:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"10/12 SURVIVAL (BASE CASE): If the sale bridges liquidity to late [----] and exemptions are granted the stock re-rates to a standard producer multiple. normalized EBITDA of $60M (at historic $8.50/lb avg) a 5x EV/EBITDA implies a share price of $3.25 roughly 3x current levels"
X Link 2026-01-03T18:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ZannisManolis Not pretty but looks bottomed with $gnk stake"
X Link 2026-01-07T00:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$arry Impact of New Broad Tariffs on Array Technologies (ARRY) https://open.substack.com/pub/valuechaser1/p/impact-of-new-broad-tariffs-on-arrayr=v6am3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://open.substack.com/pub/valuechaser1/p/impact-of-new-broad-tariffs-on-arrayr=v6am3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false"
X Link 2025-04-04T00:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$BAK silent victory. The Friday midnight deadline passed with zero noise from Brasilia. No veto. No drama. Just the clock running out. That means PRESIQ is officially a go via "Tacit Sanction." The turnaround thesis just got its second massive green light in [--] hours. 1/5"
X Link 2025-12-20T14:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"1/4 $BAK $BRKM5 filing is out for the PRESIQ law. You're going to see headlines about a "partial veto" from the President. Ignore the noiseit's not a thesis killer. The veto likely trimmed some fringe benefits but the core "bridge" to [----] was left completely intact"
X Link 2025-12-23T01:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/12 COMPETITOR LIQUIDATION: Bushveld Minerals (South Africa) filed for liquidation on April [--] [----] and was delisted from AIM in May. This removes [----] to [----] mtV per year from global supply represents approximately 15% of non-Chinese and non-Russian primary production"
X Link 2026-01-03T18:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3/12 MARKET POSITIONING: The departure of Bushveld leaves a significant gap in Western supply chains. With Evraz (Russia) under strict sanctions and Bushveld operations offline Largo remains the sole major Western-aligned primary vanadium producer currently operating at scale"
X Link 2026-01-03T18:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6/x This strategy means $DSX revenues are set to improve as all these new higher-paying contracts replace old cheap ones. Analyst estimates agree forecasting revenue growth from $224M to $264M by 2026"
X Link 2025-10-23T23:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"5/5 Yes the Paliou family governance is bad for common. But at a $1.60 cost basis you have a margin of safety. Heads = Special dividend (you get paid). Tails = You own ships for pennies on the dollar. Asymmetric bet. Long $DSX"
X Link 2025-12-14T15:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ACInvestorBlog that company being acquired $GUE had a bunch of smart money slip in MUFG (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group): Also filed a "Becoming a substantial holder" notice on January [--] 2026"
X Link 2026-01-30T01:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/x $dsx The dry bulk macro is split. The "bullish" case is for large Capesize ships: high rates ($26k/day) + a low orderbook (few new ships"
X Link 2025-10-23T23:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3/x So how is @DianaShipping ($DSX) exposed Their 36-vessel fleet is weighted 2:1 toward the "bearish" segment. 1/3 (12 vessels) are in the "bullish" Capesize class. 2/3 (24 vessels) are in the "bearish" Panamax/Ultramax class"
X Link 2025-10-23T23:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"4/x But $DSX management has a clear strategy. For their 1/3 "bullish" Capesize fleet they're cashing in renewing contracts at peak market rates (e.g. one ship moving from $20k to $26k/day"
X Link 2025-10-23T23:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"5/x For their 2/3 "bearish" Panamax fleet they're de-risking. They are locking in new rates (e.g. $8.4k ➔ $11.7k) that while below today's spot market guarantee strong profits through the expected [----] downturn. Tweet 6/9: 206"
X Link 2025-10-23T23:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"7/x This brings us to the valuation disconnect. The market seems to be pricing in only the risks (2/3 fleet exposure high debt) and none of the rewards (improving revenue smart chartering). $DSX currently trades at a Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of just 0.4x"
X Link 2025-10-23T23:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"8/x To put that 0.4x P/B in perspective: [--]. It's at the low end of its 5-year historical range (0.4x-0.8x). [--]. It's a massive 50%+ discount to peers like $GOGL $SBLK & $GNK which trade at 0.8x-0.9x P/B"
X Link 2025-10-23T23:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"9/x The core debate: The market is pricing $DSX at [----] crisis levels. Is this a deep value opportunity (due to locked-in revenue) or a value trap (due to fleet mix & debt)"
X Link 2025-10-23T23:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/5 The math on $DSX right now is actually offensive. If youre buying at these levels ($1.80) you arent paying for a shipping company. You are buying a pile of $GNK stock and getting [--] dry bulk vessels for scrap value. Here is the arbitrage trade nobody is talking about"
X Link 2025-12-14T15:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/5 Why "Deal Failure" = Bullish You WANT Genco to say no. If the deal goes Diana loads up on debt to fund it. When it fails Diana is stuck with a massive $130M liquid asset they can't control. The most logical exit Spin it off to us. A special dividend of $1.00/share"
X Link 2025-12-14T15:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/2 Lets run the "grown-up" math on $DSX using Enterprise Value (EV). $200M Market Cap + $517M Net Debt = $717M Total EV. Subtract the $120M liquid Genco ($GNK) stake and you are paying an adjusted EV of $597M for the operating fleet. That comes out to $15.7M per vessel"
X Link 2025-12-14T17:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2/6 Start with the fleet valuation. Management confirmed their net debt to asset value is 54%. With net debt sitting around $511m that implies the steel in the water is currently worth $946m. That is conservative given December capesize rates pushing $44k"
X Link 2025-12-27T15:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3/6 Now add the liquidity. Q3 cash on hand was $140m. They also own 6.4m shares of GNK which is worth another $120m at current market prices. Total assets (Fleet + Cash + GNK stake) come out to roughly $1.2 billion. Total debt is only $651m"
X Link 2025-12-27T15:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"4/6 Do the subtraction. $1.2B in assets minus $651m in debt leaves $555m in Net Asset Value. With 115.8m shares outstanding that is a liquidation value of $4.79 per share. The stock trades at $1.70. You are paying [--] cents on the dollar for hard assets"
X Link 2025-12-27T15:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1/12 $LGO UPDATE: Market Structure & Asset Valuation Analysis Recent filings and trade data confirm a structural shift in the vanadium market This thread breaks down competitor liquidation trade policy changes and non-core asset valuations based on Q4 [----] data"
X Link 2026-01-03T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"11/12 BLUE SKY VALUATION (CYCLE PEAK): If the Bushveld/Russia supply void causes a shortage spike to $12/lb+ in [----] margins expand significantly. At $144M implied EBITDA the valuation can exceed $600M market cap ($8.00+ per share). This assumes no further equity dilution"
X Link 2026-01-03T18:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"12/12 This is a call option. The bear case is insolvency in Q2 [----] if the asset sale fails. The bull case is a 3x-8x return driven by the tungsten liquidity bridge and US trade exemptions. You are paying for the option on survival not current operations"
X Link 2026-01-03T18:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@carleygarner congrats i think you got this one. odd circumstance of unfortunate events for oil but your call will be correct. $acdc puke to [----] then buy. thx great insights"
X Link 2026-01-04T00:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
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