#  @beyond_mental beyond mental models beyond mental models posts on X about $csgp, $dg, stocks, $nvr the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1280280883065430020/interactions)  - [--] Week [---] +122% - [--] Month [-----] -21% - [--] Months [------] +261% - [--] Year [------] -68% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1280280883065430020/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -23% - [--] Months [--] +30% - [--] Year [--] -48% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1280280883065430020/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.06% - [--] Month [-----] +0.11% - [--] Months [-----] +0.81% - [--] Year [-----] +1.50% ### CreatorRank: undefined [#](/creator/twitter::1280280883065430020/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) [finance](/list/finance) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [countries](/list/countries) [currencies](/list/currencies) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) [financial services](/list/financial-services) **Social topic influence** [$csgp](/topic/$csgp) #19, [$dg](/topic/$dg), [stocks](/topic/stocks), [$nvr](/topic/$nvr), [$len](/topic/$len), [$zg](/topic/$zg), [$dhi](/topic/$dhi), [$googl](/topic/$googl), [if you](/topic/if-you), [has been](/topic/has-been) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@lhamtil](/creator/undefined) [@borrowedideas](/creator/undefined) [@jerrycap](/creator/undefined) [@thegarpinvestor](/creator/undefined) [@evantindell](/creator/undefined) [@postmarket](/creator/undefined) [@davideborall](/creator/undefined) [@benthompson](/creator/undefined) [@tidefallcapital](/creator/undefined) [@safiranand](/creator/undefined) [@gromepow](/creator/undefined) [@altcap](/creator/undefined) [@bizbreakdowns](/creator/undefined) [@returnoncap](/creator/undefined) [@kouroshshafi](/creator/undefined) [@barryschwartzbw](/creator/undefined) [@speedwellllc](/creator/undefined) [@iamsamirarora](/creator/undefined) [@marcruby](/creator/undefined) [@foolallthetime](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [CoStar Group, Inc. (CSGP)](/topic/$csgp) [Decentral Games (DG)](/topic/$dg) [NVR, Inc. (NVR)](/topic/$nvr) [Lennar Corporation (LEN)](/topic/$len) [Zillow Group, Inc. (ZG)](/topic/$zg) [D R Horton Inc (DHI)](/topic/$dhi) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Home Depot, Inc. (HD)](/topic/$hd) [PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)](/topic/$phm) [Walmart, Inc. (WMT)](/topic/$wmt) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [Lowes Companies Inc (LOW)](/topic/$low) [Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND)](/topic/$fnd) [Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)](/topic/$pm) [Sherwin-Williams Co (SHW)](/topic/$shw) [Fenerbahçe Token (FB)](/topic/$fb) [Altria Group Inc (MO)](/topic/$mo) [StaFi (FIS)](/topic/$fis) [ELYSIA (EL)](/topic/$el) [Snap, Inc. (SNAP)](/topic/$snap) [Coca-Cola Co (KO)](/topic/$ko) [Procter & Gamble (PG)](/topic/$pg) [Fiserv Inc (FISV)](/topic/$fisv) [International Flavors & Fragrances Inc (IFF)](/topic/$iff) [PoolTogether (POOL)](/topic/$pool) [Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)](/topic/$tol) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl) [Pinterest, Inc. (PINS)](/topic/$pins) [Clorox Co (CLX)](/topic/$clx) [Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)](/topic/$khc) [Global Payments Inc (GPN)](/topic/$gpn) [Block, Inc. (SQ)](/topic/$sq) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [PoSciDonDAO (SCI)](/topic/$sci) [Agoric (BLD)](/topic/$bld) [SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. (SITE)](/topic/$site) [Shopify Inc (SHOP)](/topic/$shop) [Fair Isaac, Corp. (FICO)](/topic/$fico) [Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)](/topic/$bkng) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) [Charter Communications Inc (CHTR)](/topic/$chtr) [Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)](/topic/$tsm) [Twitter Inc (TWTR)](/topic/$twtr) [MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC (MDLZ)](/topic/$mdlz) [Etsy Inc (ETSY)](/topic/$etsy) [eBay Inc (EBAY)](/topic/$ebay) [Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD)](/topic/$chd) [Mastercard, Inc. (MA)](/topic/$ma) [J M Smucker Co (SJM)](/topic/$sjm) [INSTALLED BUILDING PRODUCTS, INC. (IBP)](/topic/$ibp) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "5/ Rsn #4: Innovation partners of CPG Innovation remains critical [--] long-term success of CPG cos as brand power hs weakened & retailers like $WMT $COST & $KR want CPG plyrs [--] do more or else get replaced by pvt label products. SCI provides speed [--] mkt thru R&D capabilities" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1293814898670080001) 2020-08-13T07:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/ Who cares abt P/B Probably no one except #Russell1000. U wl b surprised [--] knw hw archaic is d methodology used by #Russell1000 [--] define value/grwth. Tn of $ r invstd based on out of date def. of val & grwth. I think v r still stck in 1980s. $RLV / $RLG Follow the thread" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1323433375080865798) 2020-11-03T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "5/ Reasons [--] distortion include: a) BV is a stale metric: BS value of LT assets is understated (i.e. P/B cld be high bcz BV is too low) b) asset light biz models: expensing investments thru income statement (advrtsng R&D) c) other reaons: -ve book value stocks buybacks" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1323433392369786886) 2020-11-03T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "6/ Using B/P is outdtd way [--] def val/grwth. Lets lk @ $GOOGL/ $GOOG $GOOGL / $GOOG trds @ 13.3x EV/EBITDA vs avg EV/EBITDA of 19.0x/11.0x fr $RLG/ $RLV. BUT $GOOG/ $GOOGL hs 4.7% wght in $RLG vs 1.5% wght in $RLV. Bcz $GOOGL/ $GOOG hs P/B of 4.4x vs 9.5x/2x fr $RLG & $RLV" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1323433398241792002) 2020-11-03T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "7/ Another example: $CHTR has higher weight in $RLG vs $RLV because $CHTR hs P/B of 4.9x vs $RLV's P/B of 2x. $CHTR trades an EV/EBITDA multiple (10.5x) lower than avg $RLV EV/EBITDA (11x)" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1323433403396595712) 2020-11-03T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "8/ Another problem is that only low growth and low P/B stocks can be value stocks. Even if a growth stocks corrects in valuation then also it is not a value stock as per $RLV. $AAPL became a 9x EV/EBITDA stock in Jan2019 but it still had near [--] weight in $RLV" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1323433407712501760) 2020-11-03T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "9/ I am nt a big fan of defining val/grwth usng mltpls. Bt usng B/P [--] define val/grwth is even more disastrous. Active managers r benchmarked using $RLG / $RLV and trillions of $ r invstd based on ths outdtd classification. https://research.ftserussell.com/products/downloads/Russell-US-indexes.pdf https://osam.com/pdfs/research/44_Negative_Equity_Veiled_Value_and_the_Erosion_of_Price-to-Book-April-30-2018.pdf https://research.ftserussell.com/products/downloads/Russell-US-indexes.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1323433410354925569) 2020-11-03T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@lhamtil Nt related to elections bt #Ruseell1000 defines val/ growth using B/P which is an outdated metric. Many cheap stcks on EV/EBITDA or P/E basis hv 4x-5x higher weight in $RLG vs $RLV ( $GOOG and $CHTR r some eg.). I wrote thread abt it (pinned to my profile)" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1324031506902298624) 2020-11-04T16:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Iamsamirarora May be one is talking about $HDFC and $Kotak while other is alluding to NBFCs and lower quality banks" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1344092770852597763) 2020-12-30T01:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Bernstein upgraded $TSM this morning with 37% upside. The upgrade is based on the thesis that $INTC will have to outsource more if it needs to catch-up with $AMD especially if $INTC has to move to 3nm. $TSM's ramp-up for 3nm will be faster than any of the previous nodes" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1349089687898615808) 2021-01-12T20:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/ While US/EU banks lack growth pvt banks can be amazing growth machines in EMs like India. In EMs credit grows 2x GDP & on top of it if you take market share from SOE banks - then growth can be fairly robust. $HDB (#hdfcbank) grew BV by 23% CAGR with ROEs of 18% for 15yrs" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1415354712359047168) 2021-07-14T16:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "An old tweet from early in the year. Anyone who was listening to earnings call of CPG & other consumer discretionary players would have seen this tsunami of digital advertising. $FB $PINS $SNAP $GOOGL $TWTR Q4 has been amazing for digital advertising with $FB $GOOGL and $PINS great numbers. [----] will be even better - whether it is covid beneficiaries (CPG E-Comm) or covid losers (airlines hotels etc.) - all will be on a spending spree to retain or attract users. Q4 has been amazing for digital advertising with $FB $GOOGL and $PINS great numbers. [----] will be even better - whether it is covid" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1420966646550761472) 2021-07-30T04:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Another read thru from CPG earnings. A slew of CPG price increases will likely hit market over the next few months. I am no macro expert but inflation is getting broad based. When GM% get decimated by 500+bps $WMT will hv to allow pricing. $CLX $KO $PG $GIS $MDLZ $KHC An old tweet from early in the year. Anyone who was listening to earnings call of CPG & other consumer discretionary players would have seen this tsunami of digital advertising. $FB $PINS $SNAP $GOOGL $TWTR An old tweet from early in the year. Anyone who was listening to earnings call of CPG & other consumer discretionary" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1422924774007873536) 2021-08-04T14:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/ Investing is not about moving mountains it is about understanding the risk reward of an opportunity. Not owning/staying underweight $FB $GOOGL & big-tech just to prove that you are non-consensual in stock picking is lame. This quote by @davideborall makes lot of sense" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1423458837898702852) 2021-08-06T01:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$AMZN is allowing merchants to use its 3P services to fulfill orders from other e-comm marketplaces ( $ETSY $EBAY etc.). While this will allow $AMZN to get operating leverage on its fulfillment biz I believe the game-plan is bigger than that. Maybe purchase data" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1424515148774088712) 2021-08-08T23:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$KO is the prime example of how currency can destroy earnings. This is why US centric names tend to trade at a premium ( $CLX $CHD etc.). [--] yrs ago EM exposure used to get a premium multiple. Today EM exposure (ex-China & India) has become a pain point for most staples names" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1428549794113495041) 2021-08-20T02:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The reason consumer staples trade at market multiples is due to longevity & defensibility of FCF. Even best of the tech names may not be around 15-20 years from now. $PM/ $MO $PG etc. were dominant players [--] years ago & still continue to be dominant in their sectors. End/ The risk of double whammy (decelerating growth and multiple extraction) is probably not negligible. Long-term investing in the tech sector is perhaps one of the most difficult areas of investing although we may not think or feel that based on recent returns. End/ The risk of double whammy (decelerating growth and multiple" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1429217261940846598) 2021-08-21T23:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I am not fully aware of how tokenization works in payments but if it is difficult to switch due to tokenization then $FIS $FISV & $GPN are unlikely to lose big merchants anytime soon" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1444530744500572161) 2021-10-03T05:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Scanner data can hv its monthly gyrations but $PG's numbers keep on surprising me. $PG is 10x-100x bigger than other HPC players & still outgrows all of them. And $PG gets 15% of sales through e-comm which is highest in the group and is not captured in scanner data. $CL $CHD" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1445451347793383427) 2021-10-05T18:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "An independent payments business is an orphan business without a marketplace to anchor it - Jack Ma to Vijay Shekhar Sharma (Paytm). That is why $PYPL needed $EBAY in early days and $SQ needs an e-commerce/BNPL biz. h/t @MarcRuby" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1445746481319739395) 2021-10-06T13:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "There is much debate around $TSM maintaining 50%+ gross margin. On should look at Global Foundaries to realize how special $TSM is & running fabs at scale is not trivial. So those thinking throwing money at problem will all it needs will be proven wrong. h/t @FoolAllTheTime" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1446522656367550475) 2021-10-08T17:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "How IDFA might impact $FB when you benchmark it with $SNAP. It will be interesting to see if it remains a MSD impact or it is going to be higher than that. Of course $FB has valuation on its side" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1451599988010725382) 2021-10-22T17:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This picture provides a somber reminder don't worry about tough comps for consumer names. A lot of this money will be spent in next [--] years. $AMZN $HD $ETSY" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1461400253123469315) 2021-11-18T18:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is the list of top holders of $PTON. Leaving aside passive funds there are some big marquee names there. That is why investing is tough even folks with an enviable track record can have rough periods in the market. Time will tell if they are wrong or not" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1484250035542007811) 2022-01-20T19:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "While Figma extends durability of $ADBE's moat it remains to be seen how $ADBE uses it to pivot to web based design collaboration tool. No one puts it like @benthompson" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1571842624805371904) 2022-09-19T12:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Interesting stat on big tech layoffs.If $GOOGl + $MSFT + $APPL + $META layoff 10% of workforce then that will be 0.1% headwind to unemployment rate. Maybe higher sentimental impact on consumer vs real impact" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1621235730516164610) 2023-02-02T19:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@lhamtil Will still prefer $PM over $MO. If you have additional $$ then look at $SCI. It is defensive with path for earnings acceleration" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1625848912186839043) 2023-02-15T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$CSGP cutting their [----] adj EBITDA guide to invest $470mm in Residential business. Andy Florence has history supporting him he scaled from #4 player to #1 player. I don't about $Z but $RDFN and will have tough days ahead http://Realtor.com http://Apartments.com http://Realtor.com http://Apartments.com" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1629003003335245824) 2023-02-24T06:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$WDAY continues to print steady numbers despite a tough macro. Resilience in every number: Q1 backlog guide +20% subscription revenue guide of 17-18% margin guide increased to 23%" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1630453918923669509) 2023-02-28T06:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "US housing is at much stronger fundamental footing and I don't expect nominal prices to correct more than 10-15%. 10-15% may appear massive but that takes you to Q3-21/ Q2-21 level of home prices = home owners will still have 20-30% home equity vs pre-pandemic. $HD $NVR $LOW" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1632551733028167682) 2023-03-06T01:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Remember mortgages in US are fixed & Arm is a small portion of mortgage pool. Even if home prices correct by 15% home owners are sitting at 20% home equity vs [----]. There could be hidden risks that can break housing but fundamentals are more resilient. $LEN $NVR $DHI "60% of all mortgages outstanding were issued in the past four years at much lower mortgage rates than today making the US housing market less vulnerable to rising interest rates than in other countries." - Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slk https://t.co/zJVFTW7LkK "60% of all mortgages outstanding were issued in the past four" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1636111418763227138) 2023-03-15T21:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1/ Banks pulling back from lending is +ve for $ARES as they can deploy $$ in pvt credit funds. They don't take balance sheet risk just get that stable FRE which is 80%+ of revenues. High rates also benefit existing portfolio where they earn base + spread on floating debt. Anyone have a view on $ARES Arguably one of the simplest alt managers since 1) most of it is senior-secured credit at 50% LTV and a strong credit track record 2) vast majority of value is coming from fee-related earnings that are stable and predictable. Anyone have a view on $ARES Arguably one of the simplest alt managers" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1643810976070877188) 2023-04-06T03:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "It seems market has finally realized that housing market will not get decimated this recession. $NVR $DHI $LEN are up 50%+ in last [--] months and fundamentals are improving vs street expectations. A/ Some interesting stats on housing ( $NVR $DHI $LEN) from Evercore analyst: #1 ARM is only 5% of mortgages today vs 22% in [----]. #2 Even if home prices decline 15% then only 3.7% of homes will have negative equity. Therefore there are no forced sellers in the mkt. https://t.co/MT3RlMBx4f A/ Some interesting stats on housing ( $NVR $DHI $LEN) from Evercore analyst: #1 ARM is only 5% of mortgages" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1648491627907014657) 2023-04-19T01:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$CSGP now has 27mm unique users at competition with $Z is heating up. http://Homes.com http://Homes.com" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1650968861569589249) 2023-04-25T21:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "How can you blame weather for missing cemetery sales $SCI" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1653229139980165121) 2023-05-02T02:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It seems within consumer land hedge funds are avoiding retailers and restaurants. $HD $DG $SBUX $LOW" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1658823150136688643) 2023-05-17T13:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@RagingVentures To me it feels like housing is at a different place entering this downturn. People have been burnt by shorting builders and $HD comp has high correlation with home prices. If home prices are not going down much then bear case is less likely. Time will tell but I see the logic" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1658825010214055937) 2023-05-17T13:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TheGarpInvestor The question remains do we need [---] $FND stores or [---] are enough Important for stock multiple. I agree it is a great box and store economics are compelling" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1659229434472275971) 2023-05-18T16:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@borrowed_ideas Problem with payments is that the cheap can get cheaper. $FIS and $FISV being prime examples. There is still growth in these names but market keeps worrying about terminal value risk" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1663698098751696899) 2023-05-31T00:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$DG stock price reaction shows what happens when the market realizes a defensive name is not as defensive as they thought. $DT and $EL other examples" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1664293593035546624) 2023-06-01T15:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1/ US apartment occupancy rates are now at 93% vs 96% [--] months ago. And new multifamily supply will continue to hit the market. It appears we will have too much rental units in US. Should be negative for home price appreciation over next few years" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1676946238317510656) 2023-07-06T13:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2/ But for sure +ve for inflation heading in the right direction. Shelter is 40%+ of core inflation and rental impacts hit with a lag. And +ve for stocks like $CSGP" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1676946246848659458) 2023-07-06T13:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tight housing inventory has made this housing market so different from other housing markets. Low housing inventory leads to shallow price corrections during recessions. New home supply is the only supply out there. No wonder $DHI $NVR $PHM $LEN etc. are making ATHs" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1687927303899054082) 2023-08-05T20:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$IFF is such a capital destruction machine" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1688688590060937216) 2023-08-07T23:08Z [----] followers, 21.6K engagements "The only good thing $IAC did during COVID was to spin off $VMEO which is now down 90% from listing price. $ANGI continues to be a disaster" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1689022372265779200) 2023-08-08T21:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@JerryCap My take was more on what they did during COVID. They dumped $VMEO in the market I agree $MTCH was an okay spin (you made decent money on it)" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1689099332350324736) 2023-08-09T02:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PYPL under Schulman has been terrible will be interesting to see what $INTU's Alex Chriss can deliver. He is well regarded at $INTU was side-stepped for the CEO role at $INTU. IMO part of the $PYPL problem is structural in nature this is a way more competitive industry" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1691080535626403840) 2023-08-14T13:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BRK took small position in home builders. $DHI $NVR $LEN Don't know who drove the decision historically this is an industry known for lack of capital discipline. But since GFC we are seeing better discipline in managing capital. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway makes interesting bet on these homebuilders https://t.co/zhB1Mm0EJA Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway makes interesting bet on these homebuilders https://t.co/zhB1Mm0EJA" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1691187421197524992) 2023-08-14T20:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Everything in fintech/payments is commoditized. No one comes even close to touching $MA and $V. $SQ $ADYEY $FIS $FISV $GPN" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1692208088462332204) 2023-08-17T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$EL guide is ugly. Whisper number was $4-$4.5 guiding to $3.5-$3.7. More questions on what multiple should be put on China growth. $EL -19% When staples miss on GM% and guidance that breaks confidence that these are defensives. $EL -19% When staples miss on GM% and guidance that breaks confidence that these are defensives" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1692515436951150994) 2023-08-18T12:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This is so true about $ADYEY shares declined 40% last week and it is thesis changing as higher competitive intensity = higher pressure on profitability. Unless fintechs find their niche many fintechs are commoditized. $FIS $FISV $GPN $SQ" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1693623001667735997) 2023-08-21T13:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Another thing to think about is whether China will be the growth engine it was for $EL. If not then $EL is 3-5% revenue grower not bad for staples. But multiple will be more like 25x. But broadly agree with @PythiaR's thought process" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1694063412622336009) 2023-08-22T19:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The only way this makes sense is if you originate the mortgage and eat 2% gain-on-sale and use it to subsidize 2% down payment. But then you don't deserve to trade at 22x EBITDA you are a mortgage originator now. $Z $ZG" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1694840283702108598) 2023-08-24T22:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$SJM is putting $ on fire. CPG companies need to realize investors own them for stable earnings not to see them put 4x+ leverage in the hope of putting peanut butter on Twinkies and Ding-Dongs. Shorting declining packaged food companies is a gift that keeps giving" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1701264297794421153) 2023-09-11T15:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@connectgurmeet What will be capex + R&D investments that Tata Motors will have to make All US incumbents have been bad stocks as the $ invested in EV eat into FCF and then there is cannibalization of the ICE business on top" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1701653388537024977) 2023-09-12T17:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1/ $IBP + $BLD have been great stocks as well.it is a market where top 1-2 players are 10x bigger than rest. Insulation is critical for builders costs $2500 but if you fail inspection delays are going to cost you much more. There are many cyclical compounders in housing. Would this interest you in a business - 15% revenue CAGR for [--] years - 100x return since IPO - Family run Welcome to Kingspan a building materials business born out of Ireland that makes the best insulated panels in the world. You'll find their work in Apple's https://t.co/UnkGvC8AVA Would this interest you in a business -" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1701947645042765851) 2023-09-13T13:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "2/ Other categories with dominant share. Paint: $MAS & $SHW control 60-70% of residential repaint market. Plumbing: $FBIN + $MAS + Kohler = 80% share. Decking: $AZEK & $TREX = 85% share. Pool Supplies: $POOL has 45% share. Why these stocks have been compounders" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1701947646896681193) 2023-09-13T13:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3/ Here is the playbook of most of these companies. A) Low capex intensity most of the capacity is already there so no one is spending big $ in capex. B) Pro being a decision maker helps with pricing power. Pros want products that make their jobs easy" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1701947649434284247) 2023-09-13T13:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "4/ C) Most of them are mature companies that are not involved in knife fight to capture 10-30bps of another share they have exclusive distributors that seldom switch. D/ Risk of imports from China is less it is cost prohibitive to import decking or $SHW's paint from China" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1701947652068290694) 2023-09-13T13:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "E/ FCF gets attributed to making small acquisitions or in buybacks. $POOL has consolidated pool distributors in US. $BLD has followed a similar playbook in insulation. Mind you these are cyclicals. But if you can buy them when they are going through pain you end up making $" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1701947654798815233) 2023-09-13T13:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TidefallCapital When retailers start to mis-execute it takes at least 2-3 years to fix. It is a tough business and things don't turnaround overnight. $WMT execution prowess is a headwind for $DG" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1701999848810074561) 2023-09-13T16:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$CART's 3% GTV growth is depressing and business is undergoing a digestion period. IMO risk to terminal value is low. $WMT is still not profitable on Grocery delivery which shows that retailers will unlikely bring grocery delivery in-house. $CART is solving a hard problem" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1702378481659551938) 2023-09-14T17:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@iramneek $KHC was even more spectacular. Entire industry wanted to copy $KHC's Zero Budgeting playbook. Staples CEOs feared that they could be acquisition target by 3G. Even Buffett was sold into the idea. 3G cut marketing $ & showed big EPS growth. It imploded in '19 with stock -50%+" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1702638068627329301) 2023-09-15T10:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "To all the $DG fans bottom picking the stock don't think $10 historical EPS number you are hugging to is the right way to think. It will require some fixing. Working at Dollar General Is So Horrible Even the Investors Are Concerned" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1704614591206945179) 2023-09-20T21:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@JerryCap $AMZN never dropped the ball on customer service it appears $DG has. If you lose a customer in retail it takes time to gain that customer back. It may turn out to be a good investment in 36months if the house gets in order. But next [--] months will be bad" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1704617504759251059) 2023-09-20T22:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Now Todd Vados is back and Jeff Owen is out. I don't think that issues with $DG were completely doing of Jeff Owen. These under investments come to fruition over the years" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1712572752425623865) 2023-10-12T20:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@borrowed_ideas I think Jeff Owen was also dealt a bad hand. I don't believe that $DG suddenly became a bad business under him. These issues take years to manifest perhaps 2-3 years for sure. Maybe even longer in $DG's case. Covid led spending boom may have shielded them in 2020-21" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1712575374226296948) 2023-10-12T21:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@JerryCap $CSGP already at 100mm uniques unlikely they buy realtor" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1714360095201480866) 2023-10-17T19:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The much anticipated inflection in comps of many goods driven consumer stocks is not happening. In fact demand got worse in September and October Vs July despite easier comps. $FND $FL $RH $WSM $HD" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1714799502882644141) 2023-10-19T00:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$DXCM will likely trigger a rally in MedTech. Strong numbers: 5% revenue beat and 40% EPS beat. GLP1 losers putting strong numbers should help assuage a lot of terminal value concerns. $PODD $BAX $SYK" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1717637684846342275) 2023-10-26T20:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$EL print looks really ugly. The stock will get smoked. It turns out staples can have 50% EPS cuts as well or it was not a staple to begin with. @ $100 the stock is worth taking a look" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1719672602996646226) 2023-11-01T11:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I keep looking at $SITE and wonder if they have what it takes to be the next $POOL. Unlikely they would roll-ups are easier said than done. $POOL is amazing because 60% of demand is non discretionary vs $SITE acquiring hardscape businesses which are volatile and cyclical" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1727876913614524676) 2023-11-24T02:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "All the alternate data providers are losing their edge in tracking $SHOP GMV. Pods are asking their analyst to track this all night so that they can guess $SHOP's GMV before official release 🤣" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1727886428829311292) 2023-11-24T03:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@hank_moody12 No doubt could be. SRS Distribution which is PE backed has gone in hibernation. This is a fragmented industry with a long tail of players. Hopefully $SITE does not overpay" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1727887369481646277) 2023-11-24T03:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$XHB making new highs in [----] should be a big source of surprise. Mortgage rates kept creeping up but housing stayed resilient. A recession will tell whether what we saw in [----] was sustainable household formation linked demand vs a pent-up COVID demand in its last leg. $NVR" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1727898319102321118) 2023-11-24T03:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@safiranand Well then we can agree to disagree.look at his major holdings little churn there $AAPL since [----] $BAC since [----] $AXP since 1960s $KO since 1980s $CVX since [----] These [--] are 75% of his portfolio. He may trim or change things but I see him as a long duration holder" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1728095517836443826) 2023-11-24T16:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@safiranand Well I wish you luck if you think Buffett keeps average holding for a year. Maybe that data is not true for his biggest holdings which as I showed have been consistent for decades at times. On top of it is his pvt investments in many companies which he has owned for decades" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1728143700469961138) 2023-11-24T20:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is an amazing podcast. Sucha talented group of people sharing their stories of resilience and grit. We need more exits and IPOs out of India for the capital allocators to realize potential of this asset class. Thanks @nikhilkamathcio" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1728564369229852705) 2023-11-26T00:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Decline in new home prices reflect [--] things: 1) price cuts MSD levels on per sq ft basis. 2) Lower Sq footage: starting smaller homes. 3) change in geo mix more homes in TX / FL vs CA. Looking at $DHI $PHM $LEN $NVR etc. GM% is better way to evaluate health of housing. Never say we didn't warn you https://t.co/czFNvX48zr Never say we didn't warn you https://t.co/czFNvX48zr" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1729211820718842231) 2023-11-27T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@GRomePow Odds are high we won't see a significant correction in home prices" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1729212292565495909) 2023-11-27T18:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@GRomePow Yes they may have said the same thing. But drivers underlying the current housing market are strong. There are no NINJA loans no significant of overbuild of housing stock etc" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1729213357692178829) 2023-11-27T18:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Decline in new home prices reflect [--] things: 1) price cuts MSD levels on per sq ft basis. 2) Lower Sq footage: starting smaller homes. 3) change in geo mix more homes in TX / FL vs CA. Looking at $DHI $PHM $LEN $NVR etc. GM% is better way to evaluate health of housing" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1729234413706449234) 2023-11-27T20:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Amazing episode on history of $V and the evolution of US payments industry. Still remains one of the best business models" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1729237420418138355) 2023-11-27T20:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The rising visibility that inflation will continue to ease is reassuring the market that rate cuts are coming soon. OER has 10-12 months visibility Used car prices are falling Increasing evidence that retailers may start shedding jobs ( $FND $LOW etc. )" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1731527039146918013) 2023-12-04T04:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@DeepSailCapital $SCI and $SITE come to mind" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1731729266054995991) 2023-12-04T17:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Whatever wrong happened with $DG is everyone else's fault.Todd Vasos throwing the same execs under the bus that he himself appointed and promoted" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1743385939869651334) 2024-01-05T21:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "In past [--] months Empirical Research has been one of few who have focused on labor market consumer balance sheet and rate sensitivity of the economy to say recession is not the most likely outcome. Most others have looked at yield curve to declare an impending recession" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1746727235019522493) 2024-01-15T02:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Hard to see why $PYPL's market share bleed will stop in coming years. $AAPL can easily have 50% market share in [--] years. I have been burnt by merchant acquirers like $FIS in the past buying into cheap valuations of declining moat biz has not worked in payments" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1747111074678071558) 2024-01-16T04:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@lhamtil Beauty of US market is that many industrials have oligopolistic market structures with distribution driven moats in a number of cases. Pricing and margins are also strong as no one wants to disturb the apple cart. $AOS $SHW $HON etc all have insanely good market structures" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1747113080201310356) 2024-01-16T04:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I am still split on $PYPL but smells like an investing cycle and margin reset coming our way" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1747736148103876928) 2024-01-17T21:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Home Builders are also getting in this mode. Not cheap vs history on P/TBV. But talking about deploying more to buybacks and become land light. $PHM and $NVR are trend leaders with significant decreases in o/s shares in past decade. $LEN and $TOL also talking up buybacks. Ted Weschler's $DDS showed the value created from [--] simple factors: High FCF + a very cheap stock When your stock trades at 25% FCF yield and it all goes to buybacks you create a reinvestment engine similar to a 25% ROIIC grower. Some of these are now deploying this playbook: https://t.co/Mm68BmmSKm Ted Weschler's $DDS" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1747983914411454947) 2024-01-18T14:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$HD and $LOW have been laggards in housing.it could be their turn soon. h/t @Rubinson_Rsrch" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1749647058938515788) 2024-01-23T04:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "With pending home sales showing some signs of life $Z and $RDFN have started to move. IMO $CSGP need to start showing monetization progress for its Residential biz to get same tailwind. This is #4 platform by traffic in US but [--] monetization" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1750916131949322295) 2024-01-26T16:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$PHM has bought back 50% of o/s stock since [----]. Bought back $1bn in [----] or 5% of o/s. Home Builders are also getting in this mode. Not cheap vs history on P/TBV. But talking about deploying more to buybacks and become land light. $PHM and $NVR are trend leaders with significant decreases in o/s shares in past decade. $LEN and $TOL also talking up buybacks. Home Builders are also getting in this mode. Not cheap vs history on P/TBV. But talking about deploying more to buybacks and become land light. $PHM and $NVR are trend leaders with significant decreases in o/s shares in past decade. $LEN" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1752328794025664663) 2024-01-30T13:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Zuck knows it all Benefits of investing in maniacally focused founders who know when to pivot and how to balance growth with profitability. $META H/t @benthompson" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1754702428304183704) 2024-02-06T03:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$IT is +3.7x in last [---] years. An amazingly high quality biz that became too cheap during COVID. In hindsight COVID was once in life time buying opportunity. [--]. $IT is 10x its nearest comp. $FORR & is dominant plyr in IT research. Rsrch is a scale biz more analyst u hire more content u generate more value u create. Value $IT generates [--] its clients is evident by 84%+ retention rate that $IT maintains [--] a $33K subscription. [--]. $IT is 10x its nearest comp. $FORR & is dominant plyr in IT research. Rsrch is a scale biz more analyst u hire more content u generate more value u create. Value $IT" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1754870251630600606) 2024-02-06T14:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@altcap Fat is enemy of returns but is the tech debt too high and rivals too nimble Stripe Adyen etc are founder led companies that are able to ship and execute faster than $PYPL. It is not only fat it is competence of the people who are there" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1754899079954391495) 2024-02-06T16:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@JerryCap Not sure if $PYPL issues are entirely fixable through layoffs. But who am I to comment" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1754901253753127367) 2024-02-06T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Beauty of exceptional [--] wall economics in retail . If you can sell more out of the same box day in and day out you have a cash flow machine. $CMG $CMG Chipotle free cash flow vs share price. https://t.co/nfvi6NvfTs $CMG Chipotle free cash flow vs share price. https://t.co/nfvi6NvfTs" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1754955980444418204) 2024-02-06T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1/ Impact of elevated marketing spend by $CSGP on is not trivial. $CSGP's focuses on selleing subscription to seller's agent vs $Z's selling leads to buyer's agent. Monetization is different this can shift industry's profit pool. http://Homes.com http://Homes.com http://Homes.com http://Homes.com" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1756739179109576885) 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "2/ Role of buyer's agent is essential in a transaction. For most folks it is the biggest and most important purchase of their life. You do need a lot of advise in the process you just can't do away with buyer's agent especially when as a buyer you don't pay directly for it" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1756739180497895559) 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3/ $CSGP wants to sell subscription to seller's agents so that seller's agent own the listing and a buyer can directly contact seller's agent. So the biz model is to not sell leads. But if a buyer still needs an agent to close a deal or help with showings then not much changes" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1756739182788030513) 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "4/ Imagine as a buyer if you have to deal with multiple listing agents to arrange showings or figure all the documentation yourself. Not a simple thing to do for most buyers. This is the reason for fat 5% commissions in RE transactions. Likely buyer's agent is not going away" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1756739185031942236) 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "5/ If $CSGP becomes successful in scaling then it may tilt the market towards seller's agents and seller's agents may give a lower cut of the brokerage to buyer's agent. But to begin listing agents need to get enough traction for their listings" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1756739187003261148) 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "6/ This is why getting traffic to will be most important. Due to MLS supply side of the market in the US is commoditized. Capturing demand side determines success. This is where $Z has an advantage due to organic traffic with 180-200mm site visits" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1756739189213667380) 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "7/ Another hurdle for $CSGP will be once you like something on you can contact listing agent but if you don't have a buyer's agent to assist you then will you be okay to proceed with the deal w/o a buyer's agent Where will you find a buyer's agent" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1756739191335948787) 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "8/ $CSGP will need to be 5x-10x better than $Z in consumer experience to generate traffic organically. The marketing spend during today's Superbowl will generate a lot of interest in but will the user experience be superior enough it remains a question" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1756739193475080534) 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "9/ $CSGP and $Z are founder led so will be a mistake to assume they won't fight each other off. $Z has everything to lose if industry profits pool shifts to seller's agent. $CSGP has deep pockets but market won't be forgiving to Andy's mistake if he blows multi billion $ hole" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1756739195639419029) 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "10/ I don't own either of the two stocks. I don't like $CSGP as what they are trying to solve is too hard when you have 800-pound gorilla in the market. Andy is a genius a bet on $CSGP is a bet on him. $Z trades at expensive multiple with no profitability after 10years" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1756739197770084365) 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$ADYEY's TPV growth from $SQ's cash app estimated to be $100bn annual run rate. Most of it is likely from inflows into cash app which are lower take rate debit ACH etc. transactions" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1756825817642889239) 2024-02-11T23:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "If you feel that $PYPL button is commoditized then the "button" company will continue to have tepid gross profit growth. Stock is cheap if you ignore SBC and float income but hard to get to MSD EBIT profit growth over next [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1756879532244562082) 2024-02-12T03:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@AndrewRangeley @evantindell $BTI has been an underperformer for last 10-15 years why will it outperform now Capital allocation has been part of story for tobacco stocks but even that has deteriorated for $BTI $MO $IMB in last [--] years. How he expects to outperform the market by investing in $BTI" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1757049907200819467) 2024-02-12T14:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@danielmckinn0n @borrowed_ideas I agree execution is missing and $GOOGL was caught asleep at the wheel. Perhaps should have released all these services to clients before AI became a buzz word. AWS is probably lagging the most on these functionalities. $MSFT is actually making $GOOGL dance" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1757500254910370070) 2024-02-13T20:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$ZG continues to execute ahead of industry with real estate revenues 700bps ahead of market. $ZG rentals +37% y/y. Insane numbers when you consider existing home market is dead. Real estate agents are cutting their spend on marketing everywhere except $ZG. Solid mouse trap" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1757528622909337723) 2024-02-13T22:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@aviralbhat It was $META earnings" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1757727763518103693) 2024-02-14T11:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@PandaValue Also whether product sold is commodity or specialized. Commodity distributors have earnings volatility as deflation is a headache. Also cyclicality and growth of end markets $POOL's products have sticky prices & 20% exposure to new construction vs $BLDR being opposite" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1757892326410588466) 2024-02-14T22:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This 100bps decline in cost of payments show what we have heard in last [--] months. $UBER squeezing $PYPL and $ADYEY to get its cost of payment down. There must be some benefits from better routing and lower fraud but most of it is volume based discounts. $SHOP doing the same" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1758335063844917692) 2024-02-16T03:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "They are doing same with $FND don't take coivd unit economics on face value. Polen Capital on Topgolf Callaway $MODG: "we believe the Topgolf business model has significant room for growth both in units and in unit-level profitability" (Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/RWabFw3wMK Polen Capital on Topgolf Callaway $MODG: "we believe the Topgolf business model has significant room for growth both in units and in unit-level profitability" (Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/RWabFw3wMK" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1758903244246421915) 2024-02-17T17:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Rates incentives from likes of $DHI $NVR $LEN makes the realized rates for customers 100-150bps lower than headline mortgage rates. Existing home market which is 85% of turnover can remain in a state of stupor for next 12-18 but new housing should gain share. Mortgage rates moving from [--] to 8% since July means around [--] million fewer households would qualify for a $400K mortgage. The potential borrower pool has now shrunk by -56% since in [----] when rates were 3%. https://t.co/T56cJx9waj Mortgage rates moving from [--] to 8% since July means around [--] million fewer households would qualify for a" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1758904675468730869) 2024-02-17T17:22Z [----] followers, 14.9K engagements "@rev_cap @Cap1talCap1tal $ZG is there but they have excuted better than zombies ( $RDFN & $OPEN) Within flooring you know $FND $MHK another one. The problem with all these names is that they rip on rate moves so need to hold nerves" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1758954849356435890) 2024-02-17T20:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "After goods driven boom during pandemic and ensuing slump in 2022-23 discretionary retailers are showing signs of life: $HD $LOW and now $TGT. Comps still look terrible -ve MSD but appears to be stabilizing. Unless consumer craps out '25 looks like a normal year" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1765019372177826262) 2024-03-05T14:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$RDDT's revenue per employee is 80% lower than $FB and 50% lower than $SNAP and $PINS. At $800mm advertising revenues this is another subscale platform. Adv. revs grew 25% in Q4. 500mm MAUs but monetization is tough as users are anonymous and logged out users are 50% of DAUs" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1767535370814595315) 2024-03-12T12:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Buying quality cyclicals like $DHI at right time can give massive returns. $DHI compounded at 22% since '14. Builders have become disciplined in capital allocation and entered current rate hike cycle with pristine bsheet. Strong case for $DHI to close its valuation gap to $NVR Today we break down the largest homebuilder in the US D.R. Horton. @ReustleMatt is joined by a very special guest Ed Wachenheim. Ed has covered the industry since the 80s. Few are better qualified to explain how D.R. Horton works and has evolved. He put on a masterclass. https://t.co/1h6QyesRHj Today we break down the" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1767939073811919186) 2024-03-13T15:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@evantindell @bizbreakdowns Options are sold by land developers who often rely on funding from PE or regional banks. Optioned land is part of the story builder needs to be efficient with inventory turns to generate strong ROEs. $NVR has 30%+ RoE as they turn inventory 3x vs $LEN @ 1.3x" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1768384144285786387) 2024-03-14T21:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@evantindell @bizbreakdowns You can still be bad at capital allocation and run your biz inefficiently. $DHI is good at operations RoEs will be sustainably higher and multiple can be sustainably higher. Don't forget less debt on balance sheet. $LEN announced today that it is spinning out its owned land" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1768386087003570510) 2024-03-14T21:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "It seems $CSGP could be at the right place at the right time. Commission structure in residential transactions may come under pressure. $ZG will be under pressure to protect their profit pool from and now from regulation. http://Homes.com 1/ Impact of elevated marketing spend by $CSGP on https://t.co/o77bpOo1s4 is not trivial. $CSGP's https://t.co/o77bpOo1s4 focuses on selleing subscription to seller's agent vs $Z's selling leads to buyer's agent. Monetization is different this can shift industry's profit pool. http://Homes.com 1/ Impact of elevated marketing spend by $CSGP on" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1768691939233210813) 2024-03-15T17:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@returnoncap Looking at the list it becomes clear not all good businesses are good investments. W/o much earnings growth or multiple expansion even high ROIC bussinesses will give below market returns. $MO $BAT $KO etc. are a few examples" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1768819985047052333) 2024-03-16T02:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@dividend_grow @returnoncap I know in last [--] [--] or [---] years they have been great stocks. Not in last [--] though in my view revenue and EPS growth in next 10-20 years will look more like last 10years. Stocks follow earnings. Tobacco is a different case except $PM all others look like value trap" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1768962057167090165) 2024-03-16T11:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@AequitasL Not expert on every name but $BAT and $WHR have their stocks in a hole. CEO pay is linked to MNC's stock price so sell something expensive to for which you are not getting any credit and boost your stock price in through debt paydown or buybacks" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1770068491074199931) 2024-03-19T12:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@kouroshshafi It is not a given how much agent commissions will compress. Commissions adj slowly it could just compress by 50bps. Then we need to assume agents will cut back on marketing budget but $ZG is the last place where agents cut back. A lot needs to happen for $ZG to go to 0" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1770070570652111072) 2024-03-19T12:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$POOL has been a compounders in last [--] years with TSR of 17%+ over [--] year period. I always wonder can it grow earnings this fast over the next [--] or [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1770252874565476655) 2024-03-20T00:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Not a big dollar store fan but $DG will have some of the share gains coming its way as $DLTR closes Family Dollar stores.94% of stores within [--] miles of $DG" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1775510011659141595) 2024-04-03T13:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "More channel checks on [----] agents have signed up for if they are paying $500 per month it is $40mm ARR. Assuming some discounting $CSGP may be running at $30mm ARR for within 2months of monetization. http://Homes.com http://Homes.com http://Homes.com http://Homes.com http://Homes.com http://Homes.com" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1776286484401672293) 2024-04-05T16:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@compoundpapi Imagine what happens if $PM cracks US market through iQOS. FX is killing them so many would argue it is not 9-11% EPS growth" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1778902324523463123) 2024-04-12T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Unless $NFLX is leaps and bounds ahead of $AMZN when it comes to efficiency of content spend $AMZN prime is still a significant bargain for the value it offers" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1779707986404909434) 2024-04-15T03:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@kouroshshafi There is also not a large beer loving Hispanic population in Canada" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1779710006121615647) 2024-04-15T03:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This $SHW's moat: Paint contractors like shopping at paint stores and $SHW is a beast there. With $PPG out share gains likely accelerate. 68% pros consider $SHW #1 choice and 90% consider $SHW in top 3" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1782450325707796663) 2024-04-22T16:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@alessvat $PPG unit economics is so much inferior than $SHW. $SHW generates 20%+ EBITDA margins in their paint stores group" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1782522261691408569) 2024-04-22T21:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Not sure how $XLP will beat the market. They work once in [--] years when we get macro worries and then bleed that one year performance. $PEP is better one in the lot still not gonna beat the market. Packaged food is horrible of the lot. PepsiCo reported sales grew 2% to $18.3 bil in Q1 just ahead of consensus estimates. North America Beverage sales were up 1% in qtr as a 6% price increase offset its 5% volume decline. PepsiCo reported sales grew 2% to $18.3 bil in Q1 just ahead of consensus estimates. North America Beverage sales were up 1% in qtr as a 6% price increase offset its 5% volume" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1782797837723390195) 2024-04-23T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Market perceived $MTTR to be a spac shitco. Andy thinks he got a gem of an asset or so you have to say when you pay 9x EV/Sales. I am not so educated to comment on $MTTR if Andy is right then he is a real 🐐 $CSGP" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1782922903534682170) 2024-04-24T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@GavinSBaker It was surprising to see $PHM and $DHI raised their closings guidance when they reported. Builders are seeing slower traffic but demand is not collapsing" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1784736552926449809) 2024-04-29T00:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$CSGP under pressure as growth is slowing. http://Homes.com http://Homes.com" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1796235699923955742) 2024-05-30T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$META continues to crush the competition despite its size. Call it AI prowess or call it Zuck prowess $META is widening the gap" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1828115708141588590) 2024-08-26T17:02Z [----] followers, 19.7K engagements "@BarrySchwartzBW The core biz of $CSGP is slower growth now vs history some discount is warranted. What matters more is whether scales and at what level of investment. If it fails to scale then lower multiple is warranted. If it scales then stock has 50% upside easily. http://homes.com http://homes.com" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1828134348731916386) 2024-08-26T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Incremental ROIC for $META $GOOGL $AMZN and $MSFT over last [--] quarters remained resilient. But we are beginning to see the step down as capex has started to pick-up. 80%+ ROIIC for $META and $GOOGL will not be seen for next 2yrs. Hope is it happens at some point in next 5" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1828808067942629743) 2024-08-28T14:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Todd is still running $DG and stock is imploding after another cut to numbers. $DG's years of under investments happened under Vasos. Investors own $DG as a defensive play on consumer. $FND (cyclical) has done better as a stock vs $DG/ $DLTR despite higher rates. Now Todd Vados is back and Jeff Owen is out. I don't think that issues with $DG were completely doing of Jeff Owen. These under investments come to fruition over the years Now Todd Vados is back and Jeff Owen is out. I don't think that issues with $DG were completely doing of Jeff Owen. These under investments come to fruition over" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1829116632930598976) 2024-08-29T11:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@davideborall Don't think it is Temu. It is under invested and badly run stores. Things are falling apart and shrink is high as stores are not adequately staffed. $DG and $DLTR have both under invested market loved it when $DG was buying back aggressively instead of investing in stores" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1829137839600042365) 2024-08-29T12:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "DOJ crackdown on NAR and MLS is showing some impact. Supply side/listings of the real estate market is commoditized due to MLS it will be big for $ZG and $CSGP if MLS becomes less relevant and portals consolidate supply side. $CSGP has most to gain from this disruption" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1829147374859759760) 2024-08-29T13:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@JMihaljevic $DG under invested in their stores massively. If you feel the same for $COST then it is a red flag. IMO $COST does not face big under investment issue (maybe e-comm is not as good)" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1829478468867744076) 2024-08-30T11:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$TJX has been an exceptional retail concept. In last [--] months $BURL has shown evidence of improved with the aim to close its performance gap vs $TJX and $ROST. If it executes on its plan $BURL can deliver 25% EPS growth over next [--] years. Reminds me of $LOW in 2018" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1829626113854681387) 2024-08-30T21:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Despite having lowest ARPU in the world both #RelianceIndustries and #BhartiAirtel have been good stocks. Not seen many markets where investing in #2 telecom player has been a good investment decision. $TMUS has done well but $T has not been a great stock in last [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1830047903173234748) 2024-09-01T00:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "If $CSGP is able to make OnTheMarket a credible #2 in UK market then it will be a decent sized optionality to which market assigns no value. UKs Rightmove targeted for takeover offer by News Corps REA https://t.co/Yjmf42s7nl UKs Rightmove targeted for takeover offer by News Corps REA https://t.co/Yjmf42s7nl" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1830983514147430594) 2024-09-03T14:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Carnage among dollar stores is incredible. $DLTR / $DG were likely hiding places in a slowing consumer. Underinvestments in labor/stores are coming back to haunt $DG/ $DLTR. Who would have thought that home builders will be better stocks than dollar stores in a rate hike cycle. Todd is still running $DG and stock is imploding after another cut to numbers. $DG's years of under investments happened under Vasos. Investors own $DG as a defensive play on consumer. $FND (cyclical) has done better as a stock vs $DG/ $DLTR despite higher rates. Todd is still running $DG and stock is imploding after" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1831319501293666751) 2024-09-04T13:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TidefallCapital And they want to open more boxes . $DG is horribly underinvested" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1831800644531056655) 2024-09-05T21:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This is interesting and very reasonable assumptions for $GOOGL SOTP. Search valued at no growth consumer internet biz YouTube valued at 1-2x discount to $NFLX and GCP at 6x sales. Put it all together we get $135 as back-up the truck price" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1839300569317671120) 2024-09-26T13:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Interesting discussion on valuation framework for Open AI. It has scaled revenues faster than $META and $GOOGL. But unlikely it has advertising biz type gross margins due to compute intensive nature of AI. $AMZN's AWS probably the right proxy for valuation framework. BG2 Ep16. Nuclear OpenAI Breaking Out State of VC Public Mkts & more. 👊💥 @altcap @bgurley (00:00) Intro (00:36) The U.S. Nuclear Renaissance (08:15) AI Fast and Furious (11:19) OpenAI Strawberry o1 (17:15) Inference Constraints (20:18) Open AI Breaking Out (35:00) https://t.co/yxnzQWgjjc BG2 Ep16. Nuclear OpenAI Breaking Out" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1840873997442990125) 2024-09-30T21:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "When you run a 3-5% margin biz losing 5% quality bonus is disastrous to EPS. $HUM may see 70% of [----] EPS getting wiped out due to drop in [--] star plans" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1841476984590778607) 2024-10-02T13:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$FICO is a true toll road biz with 90% share. Not much volume growth but $FICO raises price by 15%/year with 90% incremental margins on scoring. $FICO charges $3 per transaction so pricing can continue to climb by 10-15%/ yr. Stock was a BNPL loser in [----] 4x since then" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1841559377393623435) 2024-10-02T19:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$HUM has 44% of members in one plan and they lost [--] star rating on this plan by one metric. When you run a 3-5% margin biz losing 5% quality bonus is disastrous to EPS. $HUM may see 70% of [----] EPS getting wiped out due to drop in [--] star plans. https://t.co/E9sQwAs5I7 When you run a 3-5% margin biz losing 5% quality bonus is disastrous to EPS. $HUM may see 70% of [----] EPS getting wiped out due to drop in [--] star plans. https://t.co/E9sQwAs5I7" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1841562428514951443) 2024-10-02T19:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2/ SwiggyOne users (similar to $Uber's UberOne) have a platform frequency of 7.4x compared to the average platform frequency of 4.5x for Swiggy. In Quick Commerce #Zomato is more scaled. Remember Zomato bought Blinkit vs Swiggy Instamart is largely organically grown" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1842252951810609174) 2024-10-04T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@RickPalaciosJr How much of it is hurricane impacting demand in FL Vs real slowdown in demand Ne home sales fell in FL the most" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1864687856322503047) 2024-12-05T15:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Consensus view [--] months ago was that $CSGP will decimate $ZG with launch of It seems $ZG is nibbling into share. Zillow rentals now $453mm business and guided to grow 30% in [----]. Disruptor is getting disrupted here http://Apartments.com http://Homes.com http://Apartments.com http://Homes.com" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1889692337309114819) 2025-02-12T15:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@LrabagoO I will agree to that given vacancy rates are high and we have more supply hitting the market. But the gap b/w the two platforms is narrowing fast. $ZG has 50k properties vs $CSGP at 80k" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1889707348681253199) 2025-02-12T16:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Yet another year of Resi investments. Andy destroying an otherwise good business. $CSGP continues to bleed" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1891960913332261350) 2025-02-18T21:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Builders were supposed to behave differently this cycle. Did so for [--] years now we are back to what always happen: builders build too many specs = excess supply = GM% decimation and eventual impairments. Sell the builders at 2x TBV trade still works. $DHI $LEN A key comment from the Toll Brothers call this morning was how homebuilders have become part of the excess supply problem in places (not just the resale market). The strongest housing markets today are where builders didnt get to build much this cycle. $TOL https://t.co/SaFckSyRAd A key comment from the Toll Brothers call this morning" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1892429474009931954) 2025-02-20T04:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$FND - first big beat in 2+ years. SSS went from -4% in Oct to +1.2% NOV/DEC. All this happened despite rates staying elevated. It seems like COVID pull forward has been fully digested and demand is no longer deteriorating . $HD/ $FND/ $LOW" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1892788663819309265) 2025-02-21T04:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Andy again shit talking his competitors on the call while is going nowhere and he keeps acquiring shit cos. $CSGP http://Homes.com http://Homes.com" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1917587868509212760) 2025-04-30T14:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Because $FICO takes 50% pricing and all credit bureaus get their cut of it. Why do some credit reports cost double (Bidens term) from what they did during President Trumps first term Why do some credit reports cost double (Bidens term) from what they did during President Trumps first term" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1925195029204632038) 2025-05-21T14:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Listen to one of the $FICO earnings call and you will see how management boasts about taking 50% pricing per year. Thanks for input. Still not happy with FICO. We should be making some decisions on all related items in next 1-3 weeks. Thanks for input. Still not happy with FICO. We should be making some decisions on all related items in next 1-3 weeks" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1927439625280462894) 2025-05-27T18:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$SHW is freezing 401K contributions denoting sales reps and getting rid of store labor. $SHW is the best run company among building producta companies. It seems it is ugly for housing and can get uglier if we don't see mortgage rates come down" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1965972060917870759) 2025-09-11T02:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Core Celsius sales seems to be hitting a plateau at 9% market share. Numbers still look good when factoring Alani Nu as part of $CELH. Don't have high hopes from Rockstar as the brand continues to stagnate at 2% market share" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1967980152329285733) 2025-09-16T15:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ORCL's infra capex will likely be debt funded and that can take AI capex spend to bubble type levels as $AMZN $GOOGL and $MSFT spend more to protect their share. Hyperscalers have used cash flows to fund capex but they may soon have to take things a notch higher" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1968044566067679724) 2025-09-16T20:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3. Covid is a ST tailwnd but [--] frzn it cn elevate grwth prmntly. Covid hs led [--] incrsd trial & millennials r loving it. If u will wrk 4m hm more often you will consume food at home more often. And frozen is healthy & convenient. Chck wht mgmt hs [--] say at DB conf. in Jun" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1286460974673862661) 2020-07-24T00:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "4. Run with a pvt equity mindset M&A is imp. part of strategy. $NOMD is an indstry consolidator in European frzn fd mkt with a track record of acquiring assets at cheap valuations integrating them & deriving synergies (EBITDA mrgns expanded by [---] bps b/w [----] & 2019)" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1286460981267312643) 2020-07-24T00:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@lhamtil Reminds me of Givaudan & Symrise. Small part of total product cost (2%-5%) but key ingredients in product formulation. https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1293814892143706112 https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1293814892143706112" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1421966171553796098) 2021-08-01T22:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Post_Market There are many chinks in $JDEP story - $NESN taking mkt share in Europe. CEO leaving for the weirdest of reason and in all likelihood JAB did not make much money after taking it pvt (rather my math suggested that at IPO price they at best made 5-7% IRR)" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1423002784341835777) 2021-08-04T19:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@CharlesGoodnig1 @Post_Market If you look at the multiples & $ that JAB paid for consolidating coffee assets across the world and the multiple/valuation at which $JDEP was listed at it is hard to make the math work. Even if you assume dividends that JAB paid itself hard to come-up with anything MSD IRR" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1423004407604580353) 2021-08-04T19:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Post_Market Another gem from JAB playbook. Still don't understand how they allocate capital. $COTY $JDEP $DNUT.list goes on. If I look at the portfolio Panera is the only crown jewel" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1429901441406324738) 2021-08-23T20:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@lhamtil Starbucks deal was darn good it really helped $NESN to plug the gap in the portfolio. Nespresso was a premium product they did not have mainstream pods in retail and $JDEP was taking market share. Starbucks deal helped fix all that" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1433042474675675141) 2021-09-01T12:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@lhamtil $WMS had an analyst day this morning it is a material conversion story similar to $AZEK and $TREX" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1502016820236144641) 2022-03-10T20:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@lhamtil $SWMA gets them everything - distribution + great products. They will do everything to get their hands on it" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1575523396397539331) 2022-09-29T16:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Covering anything cyclical is such a brain damaging experience. Missing my $SWMA $PM" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1580254820643966981) 2022-10-12T17:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Many are thrilled by $MO getting a $2.7bn for doing nothing. But this lowers $MO terminal value it is just a better version of Imperial now. This makes $PM take control of its destiny with $SWMA getting them distribution & best shot at most profitable tobacco market in world" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1583094262148739072) 2022-10-20T13:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "It is all about risk management. Doling out money is easy but doing so while maintaining risk guardrails is tough. No wonder $HDFC Bank trades at 3x TBV. Lending is a tough business littered with landmines. (a) Success in lending ultimately comes down to quality of underwriting; extremely hard to walk the fine balance between opening the funnel too wide (being lax) to drive revenue versus being too conservative and denying Lending is a tough business littered with landmines. (a) Success in lending ultimately comes down to quality of underwriting; extremely hard to walk the fine balance" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1642265046758694914) 2023-04-01T20:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$PM got a killer deal with Zyn and $SWMA. That's what good assets in hand of good management teams can do" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1682043029589303296) 2023-07-20T15:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Imagine $MAS spun out $IBP's competitor $BLD in 2013-14 as management wanted to reduce its exposure to the new construction market. $BLD and $IBP have outperformed rest of the industry by a mile. Such has been consolidation and turn in new housing market since [----]. This morning I published a profile of $IBP which has been rolling up local insulation installation businesses since [----] and currently has a 30% share of U.S. residential completions. It's the #2 installer in the U.S. after TopBuild $BLD (40% share). https://t.co/RObtwSovPX This morning I published a profile of $IBP which has been" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1749423278383366511) 2024-01-22T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$AGJ and $BRO have been pehnomenal success stories and act as toll booth for insurance underwriting. Plus they allocate capital towards consolidation. Sticky revenues + MSD growers + disciplined capital allocation = compounding of returns. Today's episode is on Arthur J. Gallagher the 3rd largest insurance broker in the world. The business has grown every year for the past [--] decades. (With one exception 2020). Learn how industry dynamics M&A and the Gallagher Way have powered this compounding machine. https://t.co/cITVvqXNne Today's episode is on Arthur J. Gallagher the 3rd largest insurance" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1755296217993547987) 2024-02-07T18:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Hearing the same on agents are liking $CSGP's customer service vs $ZG's. Takes few hours to fix incorrect details vs weeks for other platforms. http://Homes.com What a wild ethos: We never talk to customers after we sell them $CSGP https://t.co/yfP5RWErIT http://Homes.com What a wild ethos: We never talk to customers after we sell them $CSGP https://t.co/yfP5RWErIT" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1776223752532971799) 2024-04-05T12:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Interesting chart on where housing supply stands by builder footprint. Supply situation looks okay so far. $NVR and $TOL are best positioned $DHI and $PHM closer to mean" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1782560421045534824) 2024-04-23T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "For context $BURL trades at 27x CY25 EPS. Will grow EPS at mid 20s rate. $TJX grow EPS at low-teens rate and trades at similar multiple. $TJX has been an exceptional retail concept. In last [--] months $BURL has shown evidence of improved with the aim to close its performance gap vs $TJX and $ROST. If it executes on its plan $BURL can deliver 25% EPS growth over next [--] years. Reminds me of $LOW in [----]. https://t.co/hdqS7FKQvM $TJX has been an exceptional retail concept. In last [--] months $BURL has shown evidence of improved with the aim to close its performance gap vs $TJX and $ROST. If it" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1829628177422987548) 2024-08-30T21:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Serial fraudster. $EBIX $EBIXQ https://www.prnewswire.com/in/news-releases/ebix-exits-chapter-11-and-is-debt-free-worldwide-now-302236800.html https://www.prnewswire.com/in/news-releases/ebix-exits-chapter-11-and-is-debt-free-worldwide-now-302236800.html" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1831004350392504783) 2024-09-03T16:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Anything linked to housing turnover has been under so much pressure in last [--] years that unit demand is close to GFC lows. Mattresses and furniture are prime examples of it. Given where rates are recovery will look similar to post GFC recovery i.e a slow burn. $TPX $W $RH" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1839132456118559070) 2024-09-26T02:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "1/ Some interesting stats on $ZOMATO vs $SWIGGY ahead of later's IPO. #Zomato has 45% higher MTUs 30% higher GMV and far superior margins in food delivery. But #Swiggy is dominant in order frequency both at app level and order frequency of Zomato gold" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1842252948060962911) 2024-10-04T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "All in for trash talking competitor when your own product is having explosive adoption and growth. Not when you have spent $2bn and will be spending another billion with little to show in form of product adoption. $CSGP $ZG Not sure I have heard anyone sh*t talk as much as Andy Florance about a competitor during earnings call. Easily the most entertaining call I listen every quarter $CSGP https://t.co/OCAjGeaajD Not sure I have heard anyone sh*t talk as much as Andy Florance about a competitor during earnings call. Easily the most entertaining call I listen every quarter $CSGP" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1849082180506374448) 2024-10-23T13:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Andy can trash talk $ZG fact is $ZG is crushing numbers and is throwing sales people at a product problem. $CSGP http://Homes.com http://Homes.com" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1854534225837318470) 2024-11-07T14:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@borrowed_ideas I am glad they are no longer trashing $ZG. $ZG has executed well despite a tough housing market. has a product market fit problem will need some heavy lifting to fix it. This is not a problem that will get fixed by throwing sales force behind it. http://Homes.com http://Homes.com" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1859071696826749346) 2024-11-20T03:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$CSGP investor day is depressing" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1864698471497789526) 2024-12-05T15:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This is the only small positive from today's Investor Day. $CSGP" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1864859741685489679) 2024-12-06T02:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Speedwell_LLC Starting point for valuation is different. I would have bought $DHI and $PHM had they been trading close to book. Numbers for most builders are getting revised down. Despite recent pullback most lbig builders are trading at 1.7x TBV" [X Link](https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1891959811148796264) 2025-02-18T21:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@beyond_mental beyond mental models
beyond mental models posts on X about $csgp, $dg, stocks, $nvr the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [--] #
- [--] Week [---] +122%
- [--] Month [-----] -21%
- [--] Months [------] +261%
- [--] Year [------] -68%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [--] -23%
- [--] Months [--] +30%
- [--] Year [--] -48%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.06%
- [--] Month [-----] +0.11%
- [--] Months [-----] +0.81%
- [--] Year [-----] +1.50%
CreatorRank: undefined #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks finance cryptocurrencies technology brands countries currencies travel destinations social networks fashion brands financial services
Social topic influence $csgp #19, $dg, stocks, $nvr, $len, $zg, $dhi, $googl, if you, has been
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @lhamtil @borrowedideas @jerrycap @thegarpinvestor @evantindell @postmarket @davideborall @benthompson @tidefallcapital @safiranand @gromepow @altcap @bizbreakdowns @returnoncap @kouroshshafi @barryschwartzbw @speedwellllc @iamsamirarora @marcruby @foolallthetime
Top assets mentioned CoStar Group, Inc. (CSGP) Decentral Games (DG) NVR, Inc. (NVR) Lennar Corporation (LEN) Zillow Group, Inc. (ZG) D R Horton Inc (DHI) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Home Depot, Inc. (HD) PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Walmart, Inc. (WMT) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) Lowes Companies Inc (LOW) Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) Sherwin-Williams Co (SHW) Fenerbahçe Token (FB) Altria Group Inc (MO) StaFi (FIS) ELYSIA (EL) Snap, Inc. (SNAP) Coca-Cola Co (KO) Procter & Gamble (PG) Fiserv Inc (FISV) International Flavors & Fragrances Inc (IFF) PoolTogether (POOL) Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Pinterest, Inc. (PINS) Clorox Co (CLX) Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) Global Payments Inc (GPN) Block, Inc. (SQ) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Metadium (META) PoSciDonDAO (SCI) Agoric (BLD) SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. (SITE) Shopify Inc (SHOP) Fair Isaac, Corp. (FICO) Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) Costco Hot Dog (COST) Charter Communications Inc (CHTR) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Twitter Inc (TWTR) MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC (MDLZ) Etsy Inc (ETSY) eBay Inc (EBAY) Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) Mastercard, Inc. (MA) J M Smucker Co (SJM) INSTALLED BUILDING PRODUCTS, INC. (IBP)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"5/ Rsn #4: Innovation partners of CPG Innovation remains critical [--] long-term success of CPG cos as brand power hs weakened & retailers like $WMT $COST & $KR want CPG plyrs [--] do more or else get replaced by pvt label products. SCI provides speed [--] mkt thru R&D capabilities"
X Link 2020-08-13T07:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/ Who cares abt P/B Probably no one except #Russell1000. U wl b surprised [--] knw hw archaic is d methodology used by #Russell1000 [--] define value/grwth. Tn of $ r invstd based on out of date def. of val & grwth. I think v r still stck in 1980s. $RLV / $RLG Follow the thread"
X Link 2020-11-03T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"5/ Reasons [--] distortion include: a) BV is a stale metric: BS value of LT assets is understated (i.e. P/B cld be high bcz BV is too low) b) asset light biz models: expensing investments thru income statement (advrtsng R&D) c) other reaons: -ve book value stocks buybacks"
X Link 2020-11-03T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"6/ Using B/P is outdtd way [--] def val/grwth. Lets lk @ $GOOGL/ $GOOG $GOOGL / $GOOG trds @ 13.3x EV/EBITDA vs avg EV/EBITDA of 19.0x/11.0x fr $RLG/ $RLV. BUT $GOOG/ $GOOGL hs 4.7% wght in $RLG vs 1.5% wght in $RLV. Bcz $GOOGL/ $GOOG hs P/B of 4.4x vs 9.5x/2x fr $RLG & $RLV"
X Link 2020-11-03T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"7/ Another example: $CHTR has higher weight in $RLG vs $RLV because $CHTR hs P/B of 4.9x vs $RLV's P/B of 2x. $CHTR trades an EV/EBITDA multiple (10.5x) lower than avg $RLV EV/EBITDA (11x)"
X Link 2020-11-03T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"8/ Another problem is that only low growth and low P/B stocks can be value stocks. Even if a growth stocks corrects in valuation then also it is not a value stock as per $RLV. $AAPL became a 9x EV/EBITDA stock in Jan2019 but it still had near [--] weight in $RLV"
X Link 2020-11-03T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"9/ I am nt a big fan of defining val/grwth usng mltpls. Bt usng B/P [--] define val/grwth is even more disastrous. Active managers r benchmarked using $RLG / $RLV and trillions of $ r invstd based on ths outdtd classification. https://research.ftserussell.com/products/downloads/Russell-US-indexes.pdf https://osam.com/pdfs/research/44_Negative_Equity_Veiled_Value_and_the_Erosion_of_Price-to-Book-April-30-2018.pdf https://research.ftserussell.com/products/downloads/Russell-US-indexes.pdf"
X Link 2020-11-03T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@lhamtil Nt related to elections bt #Ruseell1000 defines val/ growth using B/P which is an outdated metric. Many cheap stcks on EV/EBITDA or P/E basis hv 4x-5x higher weight in $RLG vs $RLV ( $GOOG and $CHTR r some eg.). I wrote thread abt it (pinned to my profile)"
X Link 2020-11-04T16:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Iamsamirarora May be one is talking about $HDFC and $Kotak while other is alluding to NBFCs and lower quality banks"
X Link 2020-12-30T01:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Bernstein upgraded $TSM this morning with 37% upside. The upgrade is based on the thesis that $INTC will have to outsource more if it needs to catch-up with $AMD especially if $INTC has to move to 3nm. $TSM's ramp-up for 3nm will be faster than any of the previous nodes"
X Link 2021-01-12T20:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/ While US/EU banks lack growth pvt banks can be amazing growth machines in EMs like India. In EMs credit grows 2x GDP & on top of it if you take market share from SOE banks - then growth can be fairly robust. $HDB (#hdfcbank) grew BV by 23% CAGR with ROEs of 18% for 15yrs"
X Link 2021-07-14T16:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"An old tweet from early in the year. Anyone who was listening to earnings call of CPG & other consumer discretionary players would have seen this tsunami of digital advertising. $FB $PINS $SNAP $GOOGL $TWTR Q4 has been amazing for digital advertising with $FB $GOOGL and $PINS great numbers. [----] will be even better - whether it is covid beneficiaries (CPG E-Comm) or covid losers (airlines hotels etc.) - all will be on a spending spree to retain or attract users. Q4 has been amazing for digital advertising with $FB $GOOGL and $PINS great numbers. [----] will be even better - whether it is covid"
X Link 2021-07-30T04:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Another read thru from CPG earnings. A slew of CPG price increases will likely hit market over the next few months. I am no macro expert but inflation is getting broad based. When GM% get decimated by 500+bps $WMT will hv to allow pricing. $CLX $KO $PG $GIS $MDLZ $KHC An old tweet from early in the year. Anyone who was listening to earnings call of CPG & other consumer discretionary players would have seen this tsunami of digital advertising. $FB $PINS $SNAP $GOOGL $TWTR An old tweet from early in the year. Anyone who was listening to earnings call of CPG & other consumer discretionary"
X Link 2021-08-04T14:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/ Investing is not about moving mountains it is about understanding the risk reward of an opportunity. Not owning/staying underweight $FB $GOOGL & big-tech just to prove that you are non-consensual in stock picking is lame. This quote by @davideborall makes lot of sense"
X Link 2021-08-06T01:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$AMZN is allowing merchants to use its 3P services to fulfill orders from other e-comm marketplaces ( $ETSY $EBAY etc.). While this will allow $AMZN to get operating leverage on its fulfillment biz I believe the game-plan is bigger than that. Maybe purchase data"
X Link 2021-08-08T23:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$KO is the prime example of how currency can destroy earnings. This is why US centric names tend to trade at a premium ( $CLX $CHD etc.). [--] yrs ago EM exposure used to get a premium multiple. Today EM exposure (ex-China & India) has become a pain point for most staples names"
X Link 2021-08-20T02:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The reason consumer staples trade at market multiples is due to longevity & defensibility of FCF. Even best of the tech names may not be around 15-20 years from now. $PM/ $MO $PG etc. were dominant players [--] years ago & still continue to be dominant in their sectors. End/ The risk of double whammy (decelerating growth and multiple extraction) is probably not negligible. Long-term investing in the tech sector is perhaps one of the most difficult areas of investing although we may not think or feel that based on recent returns. End/ The risk of double whammy (decelerating growth and multiple"
X Link 2021-08-21T23:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I am not fully aware of how tokenization works in payments but if it is difficult to switch due to tokenization then $FIS $FISV & $GPN are unlikely to lose big merchants anytime soon"
X Link 2021-10-03T05:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Scanner data can hv its monthly gyrations but $PG's numbers keep on surprising me. $PG is 10x-100x bigger than other HPC players & still outgrows all of them. And $PG gets 15% of sales through e-comm which is highest in the group and is not captured in scanner data. $CL $CHD"
X Link 2021-10-05T18:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"An independent payments business is an orphan business without a marketplace to anchor it - Jack Ma to Vijay Shekhar Sharma (Paytm). That is why $PYPL needed $EBAY in early days and $SQ needs an e-commerce/BNPL biz. h/t @MarcRuby"
X Link 2021-10-06T13:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"There is much debate around $TSM maintaining 50%+ gross margin. On should look at Global Foundaries to realize how special $TSM is & running fabs at scale is not trivial. So those thinking throwing money at problem will all it needs will be proven wrong. h/t @FoolAllTheTime"
X Link 2021-10-08T17:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"How IDFA might impact $FB when you benchmark it with $SNAP. It will be interesting to see if it remains a MSD impact or it is going to be higher than that. Of course $FB has valuation on its side"
X Link 2021-10-22T17:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This picture provides a somber reminder don't worry about tough comps for consumer names. A lot of this money will be spent in next [--] years. $AMZN $HD $ETSY"
X Link 2021-11-18T18:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is the list of top holders of $PTON. Leaving aside passive funds there are some big marquee names there. That is why investing is tough even folks with an enviable track record can have rough periods in the market. Time will tell if they are wrong or not"
X Link 2022-01-20T19:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"While Figma extends durability of $ADBE's moat it remains to be seen how $ADBE uses it to pivot to web based design collaboration tool. No one puts it like @benthompson"
X Link 2022-09-19T12:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Interesting stat on big tech layoffs.If $GOOGl + $MSFT + $APPL + $META layoff 10% of workforce then that will be 0.1% headwind to unemployment rate. Maybe higher sentimental impact on consumer vs real impact"
X Link 2023-02-02T19:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@lhamtil Will still prefer $PM over $MO. If you have additional $$ then look at $SCI. It is defensive with path for earnings acceleration"
X Link 2023-02-15T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CSGP cutting their [----] adj EBITDA guide to invest $470mm in Residential business. Andy Florence has history supporting him he scaled from #4 player to #1 player. I don't about $Z but $RDFN and will have tough days ahead http://Realtor.com http://Apartments.com http://Realtor.com http://Apartments.com"
X Link 2023-02-24T06:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$WDAY continues to print steady numbers despite a tough macro. Resilience in every number: Q1 backlog guide +20% subscription revenue guide of 17-18% margin guide increased to 23%"
X Link 2023-02-28T06:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"US housing is at much stronger fundamental footing and I don't expect nominal prices to correct more than 10-15%. 10-15% may appear massive but that takes you to Q3-21/ Q2-21 level of home prices = home owners will still have 20-30% home equity vs pre-pandemic. $HD $NVR $LOW"
X Link 2023-03-06T01:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Remember mortgages in US are fixed & Arm is a small portion of mortgage pool. Even if home prices correct by 15% home owners are sitting at 20% home equity vs [----]. There could be hidden risks that can break housing but fundamentals are more resilient. $LEN $NVR $DHI "60% of all mortgages outstanding were issued in the past four years at much lower mortgage rates than today making the US housing market less vulnerable to rising interest rates than in other countries." - Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slk https://t.co/zJVFTW7LkK "60% of all mortgages outstanding were issued in the past four"
X Link 2023-03-15T21:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ Banks pulling back from lending is +ve for $ARES as they can deploy $$ in pvt credit funds. They don't take balance sheet risk just get that stable FRE which is 80%+ of revenues. High rates also benefit existing portfolio where they earn base + spread on floating debt. Anyone have a view on $ARES Arguably one of the simplest alt managers since 1) most of it is senior-secured credit at 50% LTV and a strong credit track record 2) vast majority of value is coming from fee-related earnings that are stable and predictable. Anyone have a view on $ARES Arguably one of the simplest alt managers"
X Link 2023-04-06T03:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"It seems market has finally realized that housing market will not get decimated this recession. $NVR $DHI $LEN are up 50%+ in last [--] months and fundamentals are improving vs street expectations. A/ Some interesting stats on housing ( $NVR $DHI $LEN) from Evercore analyst: #1 ARM is only 5% of mortgages today vs 22% in [----]. #2 Even if home prices decline 15% then only 3.7% of homes will have negative equity. Therefore there are no forced sellers in the mkt. https://t.co/MT3RlMBx4f A/ Some interesting stats on housing ( $NVR $DHI $LEN) from Evercore analyst: #1 ARM is only 5% of mortgages"
X Link 2023-04-19T01:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$CSGP now has 27mm unique users at competition with $Z is heating up. http://Homes.com http://Homes.com"
X Link 2023-04-25T21:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"How can you blame weather for missing cemetery sales $SCI"
X Link 2023-05-02T02:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It seems within consumer land hedge funds are avoiding retailers and restaurants. $HD $DG $SBUX $LOW"
X Link 2023-05-17T13:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@RagingVentures To me it feels like housing is at a different place entering this downturn. People have been burnt by shorting builders and $HD comp has high correlation with home prices. If home prices are not going down much then bear case is less likely. Time will tell but I see the logic"
X Link 2023-05-17T13:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TheGarpInvestor The question remains do we need [---] $FND stores or [---] are enough Important for stock multiple. I agree it is a great box and store economics are compelling"
X Link 2023-05-18T16:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@borrowed_ideas Problem with payments is that the cheap can get cheaper. $FIS and $FISV being prime examples. There is still growth in these names but market keeps worrying about terminal value risk"
X Link 2023-05-31T00:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$DG stock price reaction shows what happens when the market realizes a defensive name is not as defensive as they thought. $DT and $EL other examples"
X Link 2023-06-01T15:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ US apartment occupancy rates are now at 93% vs 96% [--] months ago. And new multifamily supply will continue to hit the market. It appears we will have too much rental units in US. Should be negative for home price appreciation over next few years"
X Link 2023-07-06T13:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ But for sure +ve for inflation heading in the right direction. Shelter is 40%+ of core inflation and rental impacts hit with a lag. And +ve for stocks like $CSGP"
X Link 2023-07-06T13:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tight housing inventory has made this housing market so different from other housing markets. Low housing inventory leads to shallow price corrections during recessions. New home supply is the only supply out there. No wonder $DHI $NVR $PHM $LEN etc. are making ATHs"
X Link 2023-08-05T20:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$IFF is such a capital destruction machine"
X Link 2023-08-07T23:08Z [----] followers, 21.6K engagements
"The only good thing $IAC did during COVID was to spin off $VMEO which is now down 90% from listing price. $ANGI continues to be a disaster"
X Link 2023-08-08T21:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@JerryCap My take was more on what they did during COVID. They dumped $VMEO in the market I agree $MTCH was an okay spin (you made decent money on it)"
X Link 2023-08-09T02:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PYPL under Schulman has been terrible will be interesting to see what $INTU's Alex Chriss can deliver. He is well regarded at $INTU was side-stepped for the CEO role at $INTU. IMO part of the $PYPL problem is structural in nature this is a way more competitive industry"
X Link 2023-08-14T13:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BRK took small position in home builders. $DHI $NVR $LEN Don't know who drove the decision historically this is an industry known for lack of capital discipline. But since GFC we are seeing better discipline in managing capital. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway makes interesting bet on these homebuilders https://t.co/zhB1Mm0EJA Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway makes interesting bet on these homebuilders https://t.co/zhB1Mm0EJA"
X Link 2023-08-14T20:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Everything in fintech/payments is commoditized. No one comes even close to touching $MA and $V. $SQ $ADYEY $FIS $FISV $GPN"
X Link 2023-08-17T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$EL guide is ugly. Whisper number was $4-$4.5 guiding to $3.5-$3.7. More questions on what multiple should be put on China growth. $EL -19% When staples miss on GM% and guidance that breaks confidence that these are defensives. $EL -19% When staples miss on GM% and guidance that breaks confidence that these are defensives"
X Link 2023-08-18T12:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This is so true about $ADYEY shares declined 40% last week and it is thesis changing as higher competitive intensity = higher pressure on profitability. Unless fintechs find their niche many fintechs are commoditized. $FIS $FISV $GPN $SQ"
X Link 2023-08-21T13:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Another thing to think about is whether China will be the growth engine it was for $EL. If not then $EL is 3-5% revenue grower not bad for staples. But multiple will be more like 25x. But broadly agree with @PythiaR's thought process"
X Link 2023-08-22T19:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The only way this makes sense is if you originate the mortgage and eat 2% gain-on-sale and use it to subsidize 2% down payment. But then you don't deserve to trade at 22x EBITDA you are a mortgage originator now. $Z $ZG"
X Link 2023-08-24T22:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$SJM is putting $ on fire. CPG companies need to realize investors own them for stable earnings not to see them put 4x+ leverage in the hope of putting peanut butter on Twinkies and Ding-Dongs. Shorting declining packaged food companies is a gift that keeps giving"
X Link 2023-09-11T15:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@connectgurmeet What will be capex + R&D investments that Tata Motors will have to make All US incumbents have been bad stocks as the $ invested in EV eat into FCF and then there is cannibalization of the ICE business on top"
X Link 2023-09-12T17:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ $IBP + $BLD have been great stocks as well.it is a market where top 1-2 players are 10x bigger than rest. Insulation is critical for builders costs $2500 but if you fail inspection delays are going to cost you much more. There are many cyclical compounders in housing. Would this interest you in a business - 15% revenue CAGR for [--] years - 100x return since IPO - Family run Welcome to Kingspan a building materials business born out of Ireland that makes the best insulated panels in the world. You'll find their work in Apple's https://t.co/UnkGvC8AVA Would this interest you in a business -"
X Link 2023-09-13T13:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2/ Other categories with dominant share. Paint: $MAS & $SHW control 60-70% of residential repaint market. Plumbing: $FBIN + $MAS + Kohler = 80% share. Decking: $AZEK & $TREX = 85% share. Pool Supplies: $POOL has 45% share. Why these stocks have been compounders"
X Link 2023-09-13T13:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ Here is the playbook of most of these companies. A) Low capex intensity most of the capacity is already there so no one is spending big $ in capex. B) Pro being a decision maker helps with pricing power. Pros want products that make their jobs easy"
X Link 2023-09-13T13:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"4/ C) Most of them are mature companies that are not involved in knife fight to capture 10-30bps of another share they have exclusive distributors that seldom switch. D/ Risk of imports from China is less it is cost prohibitive to import decking or $SHW's paint from China"
X Link 2023-09-13T13:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"E/ FCF gets attributed to making small acquisitions or in buybacks. $POOL has consolidated pool distributors in US. $BLD has followed a similar playbook in insulation. Mind you these are cyclicals. But if you can buy them when they are going through pain you end up making $"
X Link 2023-09-13T13:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TidefallCapital When retailers start to mis-execute it takes at least 2-3 years to fix. It is a tough business and things don't turnaround overnight. $WMT execution prowess is a headwind for $DG"
X Link 2023-09-13T16:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$CART's 3% GTV growth is depressing and business is undergoing a digestion period. IMO risk to terminal value is low. $WMT is still not profitable on Grocery delivery which shows that retailers will unlikely bring grocery delivery in-house. $CART is solving a hard problem"
X Link 2023-09-14T17:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@iramneek $KHC was even more spectacular. Entire industry wanted to copy $KHC's Zero Budgeting playbook. Staples CEOs feared that they could be acquisition target by 3G. Even Buffett was sold into the idea. 3G cut marketing $ & showed big EPS growth. It imploded in '19 with stock -50%+"
X Link 2023-09-15T10:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"To all the $DG fans bottom picking the stock don't think $10 historical EPS number you are hugging to is the right way to think. It will require some fixing. Working at Dollar General Is So Horrible Even the Investors Are Concerned"
X Link 2023-09-20T21:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JerryCap $AMZN never dropped the ball on customer service it appears $DG has. If you lose a customer in retail it takes time to gain that customer back. It may turn out to be a good investment in 36months if the house gets in order. But next [--] months will be bad"
X Link 2023-09-20T22:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Now Todd Vados is back and Jeff Owen is out. I don't think that issues with $DG were completely doing of Jeff Owen. These under investments come to fruition over the years"
X Link 2023-10-12T20:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@borrowed_ideas I think Jeff Owen was also dealt a bad hand. I don't believe that $DG suddenly became a bad business under him. These issues take years to manifest perhaps 2-3 years for sure. Maybe even longer in $DG's case. Covid led spending boom may have shielded them in 2020-21"
X Link 2023-10-12T21:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@JerryCap $CSGP already at 100mm uniques unlikely they buy realtor"
X Link 2023-10-17T19:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The much anticipated inflection in comps of many goods driven consumer stocks is not happening. In fact demand got worse in September and October Vs July despite easier comps. $FND $FL $RH $WSM $HD"
X Link 2023-10-19T00:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$DXCM will likely trigger a rally in MedTech. Strong numbers: 5% revenue beat and 40% EPS beat. GLP1 losers putting strong numbers should help assuage a lot of terminal value concerns. $PODD $BAX $SYK"
X Link 2023-10-26T20:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$EL print looks really ugly. The stock will get smoked. It turns out staples can have 50% EPS cuts as well or it was not a staple to begin with. @ $100 the stock is worth taking a look"
X Link 2023-11-01T11:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I keep looking at $SITE and wonder if they have what it takes to be the next $POOL. Unlikely they would roll-ups are easier said than done. $POOL is amazing because 60% of demand is non discretionary vs $SITE acquiring hardscape businesses which are volatile and cyclical"
X Link 2023-11-24T02:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"All the alternate data providers are losing their edge in tracking $SHOP GMV. Pods are asking their analyst to track this all night so that they can guess $SHOP's GMV before official release 🤣"
X Link 2023-11-24T03:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@hank_moody12 No doubt could be. SRS Distribution which is PE backed has gone in hibernation. This is a fragmented industry with a long tail of players. Hopefully $SITE does not overpay"
X Link 2023-11-24T03:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$XHB making new highs in [----] should be a big source of surprise. Mortgage rates kept creeping up but housing stayed resilient. A recession will tell whether what we saw in [----] was sustainable household formation linked demand vs a pent-up COVID demand in its last leg. $NVR"
X Link 2023-11-24T03:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@safiranand Well then we can agree to disagree.look at his major holdings little churn there $AAPL since [----] $BAC since [----] $AXP since 1960s $KO since 1980s $CVX since [----] These [--] are 75% of his portfolio. He may trim or change things but I see him as a long duration holder"
X Link 2023-11-24T16:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@safiranand Well I wish you luck if you think Buffett keeps average holding for a year. Maybe that data is not true for his biggest holdings which as I showed have been consistent for decades at times. On top of it is his pvt investments in many companies which he has owned for decades"
X Link 2023-11-24T20:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is an amazing podcast. Sucha talented group of people sharing their stories of resilience and grit. We need more exits and IPOs out of India for the capital allocators to realize potential of this asset class. Thanks @nikhilkamathcio"
X Link 2023-11-26T00:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Decline in new home prices reflect [--] things: 1) price cuts MSD levels on per sq ft basis. 2) Lower Sq footage: starting smaller homes. 3) change in geo mix more homes in TX / FL vs CA. Looking at $DHI $PHM $LEN $NVR etc. GM% is better way to evaluate health of housing. Never say we didn't warn you https://t.co/czFNvX48zr Never say we didn't warn you https://t.co/czFNvX48zr"
X Link 2023-11-27T18:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@GRomePow Odds are high we won't see a significant correction in home prices"
X Link 2023-11-27T18:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@GRomePow Yes they may have said the same thing. But drivers underlying the current housing market are strong. There are no NINJA loans no significant of overbuild of housing stock etc"
X Link 2023-11-27T18:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Decline in new home prices reflect [--] things: 1) price cuts MSD levels on per sq ft basis. 2) Lower Sq footage: starting smaller homes. 3) change in geo mix more homes in TX / FL vs CA. Looking at $DHI $PHM $LEN $NVR etc. GM% is better way to evaluate health of housing"
X Link 2023-11-27T20:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Amazing episode on history of $V and the evolution of US payments industry. Still remains one of the best business models"
X Link 2023-11-27T20:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The rising visibility that inflation will continue to ease is reassuring the market that rate cuts are coming soon. OER has 10-12 months visibility Used car prices are falling Increasing evidence that retailers may start shedding jobs ( $FND $LOW etc. )"
X Link 2023-12-04T04:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@DeepSailCapital $SCI and $SITE come to mind"
X Link 2023-12-04T17:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Whatever wrong happened with $DG is everyone else's fault.Todd Vasos throwing the same execs under the bus that he himself appointed and promoted"
X Link 2024-01-05T21:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In past [--] months Empirical Research has been one of few who have focused on labor market consumer balance sheet and rate sensitivity of the economy to say recession is not the most likely outcome. Most others have looked at yield curve to declare an impending recession"
X Link 2024-01-15T02:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Hard to see why $PYPL's market share bleed will stop in coming years. $AAPL can easily have 50% market share in [--] years. I have been burnt by merchant acquirers like $FIS in the past buying into cheap valuations of declining moat biz has not worked in payments"
X Link 2024-01-16T04:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@lhamtil Beauty of US market is that many industrials have oligopolistic market structures with distribution driven moats in a number of cases. Pricing and margins are also strong as no one wants to disturb the apple cart. $AOS $SHW $HON etc all have insanely good market structures"
X Link 2024-01-16T04:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I am still split on $PYPL but smells like an investing cycle and margin reset coming our way"
X Link 2024-01-17T21:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Home Builders are also getting in this mode. Not cheap vs history on P/TBV. But talking about deploying more to buybacks and become land light. $PHM and $NVR are trend leaders with significant decreases in o/s shares in past decade. $LEN and $TOL also talking up buybacks. Ted Weschler's $DDS showed the value created from [--] simple factors: High FCF + a very cheap stock When your stock trades at 25% FCF yield and it all goes to buybacks you create a reinvestment engine similar to a 25% ROIIC grower. Some of these are now deploying this playbook: https://t.co/Mm68BmmSKm Ted Weschler's $DDS"
X Link 2024-01-18T14:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$HD and $LOW have been laggards in housing.it could be their turn soon. h/t @Rubinson_Rsrch"
X Link 2024-01-23T04:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"With pending home sales showing some signs of life $Z and $RDFN have started to move. IMO $CSGP need to start showing monetization progress for its Residential biz to get same tailwind. This is #4 platform by traffic in US but [--] monetization"
X Link 2024-01-26T16:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$PHM has bought back 50% of o/s stock since [----]. Bought back $1bn in [----] or 5% of o/s. Home Builders are also getting in this mode. Not cheap vs history on P/TBV. But talking about deploying more to buybacks and become land light. $PHM and $NVR are trend leaders with significant decreases in o/s shares in past decade. $LEN and $TOL also talking up buybacks. Home Builders are also getting in this mode. Not cheap vs history on P/TBV. But talking about deploying more to buybacks and become land light. $PHM and $NVR are trend leaders with significant decreases in o/s shares in past decade. $LEN"
X Link 2024-01-30T13:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Zuck knows it all Benefits of investing in maniacally focused founders who know when to pivot and how to balance growth with profitability. $META H/t @benthompson"
X Link 2024-02-06T03:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$IT is +3.7x in last [---] years. An amazingly high quality biz that became too cheap during COVID. In hindsight COVID was once in life time buying opportunity. [--]. $IT is 10x its nearest comp. $FORR & is dominant plyr in IT research. Rsrch is a scale biz more analyst u hire more content u generate more value u create. Value $IT generates [--] its clients is evident by 84%+ retention rate that $IT maintains [--] a $33K subscription. [--]. $IT is 10x its nearest comp. $FORR & is dominant plyr in IT research. Rsrch is a scale biz more analyst u hire more content u generate more value u create. Value $IT"
X Link 2024-02-06T14:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@altcap Fat is enemy of returns but is the tech debt too high and rivals too nimble Stripe Adyen etc are founder led companies that are able to ship and execute faster than $PYPL. It is not only fat it is competence of the people who are there"
X Link 2024-02-06T16:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@JerryCap Not sure if $PYPL issues are entirely fixable through layoffs. But who am I to comment"
X Link 2024-02-06T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Beauty of exceptional [--] wall economics in retail . If you can sell more out of the same box day in and day out you have a cash flow machine. $CMG $CMG Chipotle free cash flow vs share price. https://t.co/nfvi6NvfTs $CMG Chipotle free cash flow vs share price. https://t.co/nfvi6NvfTs"
X Link 2024-02-06T19:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ Impact of elevated marketing spend by $CSGP on is not trivial. $CSGP's focuses on selleing subscription to seller's agent vs $Z's selling leads to buyer's agent. Monetization is different this can shift industry's profit pool. http://Homes.com http://Homes.com http://Homes.com http://Homes.com"
X Link 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2/ Role of buyer's agent is essential in a transaction. For most folks it is the biggest and most important purchase of their life. You do need a lot of advise in the process you just can't do away with buyer's agent especially when as a buyer you don't pay directly for it"
X Link 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3/ $CSGP wants to sell subscription to seller's agents so that seller's agent own the listing and a buyer can directly contact seller's agent. So the biz model is to not sell leads. But if a buyer still needs an agent to close a deal or help with showings then not much changes"
X Link 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"4/ Imagine as a buyer if you have to deal with multiple listing agents to arrange showings or figure all the documentation yourself. Not a simple thing to do for most buyers. This is the reason for fat 5% commissions in RE transactions. Likely buyer's agent is not going away"
X Link 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"5/ If $CSGP becomes successful in scaling then it may tilt the market towards seller's agents and seller's agents may give a lower cut of the brokerage to buyer's agent. But to begin listing agents need to get enough traction for their listings"
X Link 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"6/ This is why getting traffic to will be most important. Due to MLS supply side of the market in the US is commoditized. Capturing demand side determines success. This is where $Z has an advantage due to organic traffic with 180-200mm site visits"
X Link 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"7/ Another hurdle for $CSGP will be once you like something on you can contact listing agent but if you don't have a buyer's agent to assist you then will you be okay to proceed with the deal w/o a buyer's agent Where will you find a buyer's agent"
X Link 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"8/ $CSGP will need to be 5x-10x better than $Z in consumer experience to generate traffic organically. The marketing spend during today's Superbowl will generate a lot of interest in but will the user experience be superior enough it remains a question"
X Link 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"9/ $CSGP and $Z are founder led so will be a mistake to assume they won't fight each other off. $Z has everything to lose if industry profits pool shifts to seller's agent. $CSGP has deep pockets but market won't be forgiving to Andy's mistake if he blows multi billion $ hole"
X Link 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"10/ I don't own either of the two stocks. I don't like $CSGP as what they are trying to solve is too hard when you have 800-pound gorilla in the market. Andy is a genius a bet on $CSGP is a bet on him. $Z trades at expensive multiple with no profitability after 10years"
X Link 2024-02-11T17:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ADYEY's TPV growth from $SQ's cash app estimated to be $100bn annual run rate. Most of it is likely from inflows into cash app which are lower take rate debit ACH etc. transactions"
X Link 2024-02-11T23:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If you feel that $PYPL button is commoditized then the "button" company will continue to have tepid gross profit growth. Stock is cheap if you ignore SBC and float income but hard to get to MSD EBIT profit growth over next [--] years"
X Link 2024-02-12T03:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AndrewRangeley @evantindell $BTI has been an underperformer for last 10-15 years why will it outperform now Capital allocation has been part of story for tobacco stocks but even that has deteriorated for $BTI $MO $IMB in last [--] years. How he expects to outperform the market by investing in $BTI"
X Link 2024-02-12T14:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@danielmckinn0n @borrowed_ideas I agree execution is missing and $GOOGL was caught asleep at the wheel. Perhaps should have released all these services to clients before AI became a buzz word. AWS is probably lagging the most on these functionalities. $MSFT is actually making $GOOGL dance"
X Link 2024-02-13T20:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$ZG continues to execute ahead of industry with real estate revenues 700bps ahead of market. $ZG rentals +37% y/y. Insane numbers when you consider existing home market is dead. Real estate agents are cutting their spend on marketing everywhere except $ZG. Solid mouse trap"
X Link 2024-02-13T22:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@aviralbhat It was $META earnings"
X Link 2024-02-14T11:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@PandaValue Also whether product sold is commodity or specialized. Commodity distributors have earnings volatility as deflation is a headache. Also cyclicality and growth of end markets $POOL's products have sticky prices & 20% exposure to new construction vs $BLDR being opposite"
X Link 2024-02-14T22:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This 100bps decline in cost of payments show what we have heard in last [--] months. $UBER squeezing $PYPL and $ADYEY to get its cost of payment down. There must be some benefits from better routing and lower fraud but most of it is volume based discounts. $SHOP doing the same"
X Link 2024-02-16T03:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"They are doing same with $FND don't take coivd unit economics on face value. Polen Capital on Topgolf Callaway $MODG: "we believe the Topgolf business model has significant room for growth both in units and in unit-level profitability" (Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/RWabFw3wMK Polen Capital on Topgolf Callaway $MODG: "we believe the Topgolf business model has significant room for growth both in units and in unit-level profitability" (Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/RWabFw3wMK"
X Link 2024-02-17T17:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Rates incentives from likes of $DHI $NVR $LEN makes the realized rates for customers 100-150bps lower than headline mortgage rates. Existing home market which is 85% of turnover can remain in a state of stupor for next 12-18 but new housing should gain share. Mortgage rates moving from [--] to 8% since July means around [--] million fewer households would qualify for a $400K mortgage. The potential borrower pool has now shrunk by -56% since in [----] when rates were 3%. https://t.co/T56cJx9waj Mortgage rates moving from [--] to 8% since July means around [--] million fewer households would qualify for a"
X Link 2024-02-17T17:22Z [----] followers, 14.9K engagements
"@rev_cap @Cap1talCap1tal $ZG is there but they have excuted better than zombies ( $RDFN & $OPEN) Within flooring you know $FND $MHK another one. The problem with all these names is that they rip on rate moves so need to hold nerves"
X Link 2024-02-17T20:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"After goods driven boom during pandemic and ensuing slump in 2022-23 discretionary retailers are showing signs of life: $HD $LOW and now $TGT. Comps still look terrible -ve MSD but appears to be stabilizing. Unless consumer craps out '25 looks like a normal year"
X Link 2024-03-05T14:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$RDDT's revenue per employee is 80% lower than $FB and 50% lower than $SNAP and $PINS. At $800mm advertising revenues this is another subscale platform. Adv. revs grew 25% in Q4. 500mm MAUs but monetization is tough as users are anonymous and logged out users are 50% of DAUs"
X Link 2024-03-12T12:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Buying quality cyclicals like $DHI at right time can give massive returns. $DHI compounded at 22% since '14. Builders have become disciplined in capital allocation and entered current rate hike cycle with pristine bsheet. Strong case for $DHI to close its valuation gap to $NVR Today we break down the largest homebuilder in the US D.R. Horton. @ReustleMatt is joined by a very special guest Ed Wachenheim. Ed has covered the industry since the 80s. Few are better qualified to explain how D.R. Horton works and has evolved. He put on a masterclass. https://t.co/1h6QyesRHj Today we break down the"
X Link 2024-03-13T15:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@evantindell @bizbreakdowns Options are sold by land developers who often rely on funding from PE or regional banks. Optioned land is part of the story builder needs to be efficient with inventory turns to generate strong ROEs. $NVR has 30%+ RoE as they turn inventory 3x vs $LEN @ 1.3x"
X Link 2024-03-14T21:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@evantindell @bizbreakdowns You can still be bad at capital allocation and run your biz inefficiently. $DHI is good at operations RoEs will be sustainably higher and multiple can be sustainably higher. Don't forget less debt on balance sheet. $LEN announced today that it is spinning out its owned land"
X Link 2024-03-14T21:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"It seems $CSGP could be at the right place at the right time. Commission structure in residential transactions may come under pressure. $ZG will be under pressure to protect their profit pool from and now from regulation. http://Homes.com 1/ Impact of elevated marketing spend by $CSGP on https://t.co/o77bpOo1s4 is not trivial. $CSGP's https://t.co/o77bpOo1s4 focuses on selleing subscription to seller's agent vs $Z's selling leads to buyer's agent. Monetization is different this can shift industry's profit pool. http://Homes.com 1/ Impact of elevated marketing spend by $CSGP on"
X Link 2024-03-15T17:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@returnoncap Looking at the list it becomes clear not all good businesses are good investments. W/o much earnings growth or multiple expansion even high ROIC bussinesses will give below market returns. $MO $BAT $KO etc. are a few examples"
X Link 2024-03-16T02:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@dividend_grow @returnoncap I know in last [--] [--] or [---] years they have been great stocks. Not in last [--] though in my view revenue and EPS growth in next 10-20 years will look more like last 10years. Stocks follow earnings. Tobacco is a different case except $PM all others look like value trap"
X Link 2024-03-16T11:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@AequitasL Not expert on every name but $BAT and $WHR have their stocks in a hole. CEO pay is linked to MNC's stock price so sell something expensive to for which you are not getting any credit and boost your stock price in through debt paydown or buybacks"
X Link 2024-03-19T12:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@kouroshshafi It is not a given how much agent commissions will compress. Commissions adj slowly it could just compress by 50bps. Then we need to assume agents will cut back on marketing budget but $ZG is the last place where agents cut back. A lot needs to happen for $ZG to go to 0"
X Link 2024-03-19T12:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$POOL has been a compounders in last [--] years with TSR of 17%+ over [--] year period. I always wonder can it grow earnings this fast over the next [--] or [--] years"
X Link 2024-03-20T00:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Not a big dollar store fan but $DG will have some of the share gains coming its way as $DLTR closes Family Dollar stores.94% of stores within [--] miles of $DG"
X Link 2024-04-03T13:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"More channel checks on [----] agents have signed up for if they are paying $500 per month it is $40mm ARR. Assuming some discounting $CSGP may be running at $30mm ARR for within 2months of monetization. http://Homes.com http://Homes.com http://Homes.com http://Homes.com http://Homes.com http://Homes.com"
X Link 2024-04-05T16:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@compoundpapi Imagine what happens if $PM cracks US market through iQOS. FX is killing them so many would argue it is not 9-11% EPS growth"
X Link 2024-04-12T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Unless $NFLX is leaps and bounds ahead of $AMZN when it comes to efficiency of content spend $AMZN prime is still a significant bargain for the value it offers"
X Link 2024-04-15T03:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@kouroshshafi There is also not a large beer loving Hispanic population in Canada"
X Link 2024-04-15T03:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This $SHW's moat: Paint contractors like shopping at paint stores and $SHW is a beast there. With $PPG out share gains likely accelerate. 68% pros consider $SHW #1 choice and 90% consider $SHW in top 3"
X Link 2024-04-22T16:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@alessvat $PPG unit economics is so much inferior than $SHW. $SHW generates 20%+ EBITDA margins in their paint stores group"
X Link 2024-04-22T21:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Not sure how $XLP will beat the market. They work once in [--] years when we get macro worries and then bleed that one year performance. $PEP is better one in the lot still not gonna beat the market. Packaged food is horrible of the lot. PepsiCo reported sales grew 2% to $18.3 bil in Q1 just ahead of consensus estimates. North America Beverage sales were up 1% in qtr as a 6% price increase offset its 5% volume decline. PepsiCo reported sales grew 2% to $18.3 bil in Q1 just ahead of consensus estimates. North America Beverage sales were up 1% in qtr as a 6% price increase offset its 5% volume"
X Link 2024-04-23T15:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Market perceived $MTTR to be a spac shitco. Andy thinks he got a gem of an asset or so you have to say when you pay 9x EV/Sales. I am not so educated to comment on $MTTR if Andy is right then he is a real 🐐 $CSGP"
X Link 2024-04-24T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@GavinSBaker It was surprising to see $PHM and $DHI raised their closings guidance when they reported. Builders are seeing slower traffic but demand is not collapsing"
X Link 2024-04-29T00:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CSGP under pressure as growth is slowing. http://Homes.com http://Homes.com"
X Link 2024-05-30T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$META continues to crush the competition despite its size. Call it AI prowess or call it Zuck prowess $META is widening the gap"
X Link 2024-08-26T17:02Z [----] followers, 19.7K engagements
"@BarrySchwartzBW The core biz of $CSGP is slower growth now vs history some discount is warranted. What matters more is whether scales and at what level of investment. If it fails to scale then lower multiple is warranted. If it scales then stock has 50% upside easily. http://homes.com http://homes.com"
X Link 2024-08-26T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Incremental ROIC for $META $GOOGL $AMZN and $MSFT over last [--] quarters remained resilient. But we are beginning to see the step down as capex has started to pick-up. 80%+ ROIIC for $META and $GOOGL will not be seen for next 2yrs. Hope is it happens at some point in next 5"
X Link 2024-08-28T14:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Todd is still running $DG and stock is imploding after another cut to numbers. $DG's years of under investments happened under Vasos. Investors own $DG as a defensive play on consumer. $FND (cyclical) has done better as a stock vs $DG/ $DLTR despite higher rates. Now Todd Vados is back and Jeff Owen is out. I don't think that issues with $DG were completely doing of Jeff Owen. These under investments come to fruition over the years Now Todd Vados is back and Jeff Owen is out. I don't think that issues with $DG were completely doing of Jeff Owen. These under investments come to fruition over"
X Link 2024-08-29T11:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@davideborall Don't think it is Temu. It is under invested and badly run stores. Things are falling apart and shrink is high as stores are not adequately staffed. $DG and $DLTR have both under invested market loved it when $DG was buying back aggressively instead of investing in stores"
X Link 2024-08-29T12:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"DOJ crackdown on NAR and MLS is showing some impact. Supply side/listings of the real estate market is commoditized due to MLS it will be big for $ZG and $CSGP if MLS becomes less relevant and portals consolidate supply side. $CSGP has most to gain from this disruption"
X Link 2024-08-29T13:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@JMihaljevic $DG under invested in their stores massively. If you feel the same for $COST then it is a red flag. IMO $COST does not face big under investment issue (maybe e-comm is not as good)"
X Link 2024-08-30T11:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$TJX has been an exceptional retail concept. In last [--] months $BURL has shown evidence of improved with the aim to close its performance gap vs $TJX and $ROST. If it executes on its plan $BURL can deliver 25% EPS growth over next [--] years. Reminds me of $LOW in 2018"
X Link 2024-08-30T21:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Despite having lowest ARPU in the world both #RelianceIndustries and #BhartiAirtel have been good stocks. Not seen many markets where investing in #2 telecom player has been a good investment decision. $TMUS has done well but $T has not been a great stock in last [--] years"
X Link 2024-09-01T00:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"If $CSGP is able to make OnTheMarket a credible #2 in UK market then it will be a decent sized optionality to which market assigns no value. UKs Rightmove targeted for takeover offer by News Corps REA https://t.co/Yjmf42s7nl UKs Rightmove targeted for takeover offer by News Corps REA https://t.co/Yjmf42s7nl"
X Link 2024-09-03T14:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Carnage among dollar stores is incredible. $DLTR / $DG were likely hiding places in a slowing consumer. Underinvestments in labor/stores are coming back to haunt $DG/ $DLTR. Who would have thought that home builders will be better stocks than dollar stores in a rate hike cycle. Todd is still running $DG and stock is imploding after another cut to numbers. $DG's years of under investments happened under Vasos. Investors own $DG as a defensive play on consumer. $FND (cyclical) has done better as a stock vs $DG/ $DLTR despite higher rates. Todd is still running $DG and stock is imploding after"
X Link 2024-09-04T13:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TidefallCapital And they want to open more boxes . $DG is horribly underinvested"
X Link 2024-09-05T21:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This is interesting and very reasonable assumptions for $GOOGL SOTP. Search valued at no growth consumer internet biz YouTube valued at 1-2x discount to $NFLX and GCP at 6x sales. Put it all together we get $135 as back-up the truck price"
X Link 2024-09-26T13:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting discussion on valuation framework for Open AI. It has scaled revenues faster than $META and $GOOGL. But unlikely it has advertising biz type gross margins due to compute intensive nature of AI. $AMZN's AWS probably the right proxy for valuation framework. BG2 Ep16. Nuclear OpenAI Breaking Out State of VC Public Mkts & more. 👊💥 @altcap @bgurley (00:00) Intro (00:36) The U.S. Nuclear Renaissance (08:15) AI Fast and Furious (11:19) OpenAI Strawberry o1 (17:15) Inference Constraints (20:18) Open AI Breaking Out (35:00) https://t.co/yxnzQWgjjc BG2 Ep16. Nuclear OpenAI Breaking Out"
X Link 2024-09-30T21:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"When you run a 3-5% margin biz losing 5% quality bonus is disastrous to EPS. $HUM may see 70% of [----] EPS getting wiped out due to drop in [--] star plans"
X Link 2024-10-02T13:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FICO is a true toll road biz with 90% share. Not much volume growth but $FICO raises price by 15%/year with 90% incremental margins on scoring. $FICO charges $3 per transaction so pricing can continue to climb by 10-15%/ yr. Stock was a BNPL loser in [----] 4x since then"
X Link 2024-10-02T19:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$HUM has 44% of members in one plan and they lost [--] star rating on this plan by one metric. When you run a 3-5% margin biz losing 5% quality bonus is disastrous to EPS. $HUM may see 70% of [----] EPS getting wiped out due to drop in [--] star plans. https://t.co/E9sQwAs5I7 When you run a 3-5% margin biz losing 5% quality bonus is disastrous to EPS. $HUM may see 70% of [----] EPS getting wiped out due to drop in [--] star plans. https://t.co/E9sQwAs5I7"
X Link 2024-10-02T19:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ SwiggyOne users (similar to $Uber's UberOne) have a platform frequency of 7.4x compared to the average platform frequency of 4.5x for Swiggy. In Quick Commerce #Zomato is more scaled. Remember Zomato bought Blinkit vs Swiggy Instamart is largely organically grown"
X Link 2024-10-04T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@RickPalaciosJr How much of it is hurricane impacting demand in FL Vs real slowdown in demand Ne home sales fell in FL the most"
X Link 2024-12-05T15:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Consensus view [--] months ago was that $CSGP will decimate $ZG with launch of It seems $ZG is nibbling into share. Zillow rentals now $453mm business and guided to grow 30% in [----]. Disruptor is getting disrupted here http://Apartments.com http://Homes.com http://Apartments.com http://Homes.com"
X Link 2025-02-12T15:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@LrabagoO I will agree to that given vacancy rates are high and we have more supply hitting the market. But the gap b/w the two platforms is narrowing fast. $ZG has 50k properties vs $CSGP at 80k"
X Link 2025-02-12T16:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yet another year of Resi investments. Andy destroying an otherwise good business. $CSGP continues to bleed"
X Link 2025-02-18T21:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Builders were supposed to behave differently this cycle. Did so for [--] years now we are back to what always happen: builders build too many specs = excess supply = GM% decimation and eventual impairments. Sell the builders at 2x TBV trade still works. $DHI $LEN A key comment from the Toll Brothers call this morning was how homebuilders have become part of the excess supply problem in places (not just the resale market). The strongest housing markets today are where builders didnt get to build much this cycle. $TOL https://t.co/SaFckSyRAd A key comment from the Toll Brothers call this morning"
X Link 2025-02-20T04:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FND - first big beat in 2+ years. SSS went from -4% in Oct to +1.2% NOV/DEC. All this happened despite rates staying elevated. It seems like COVID pull forward has been fully digested and demand is no longer deteriorating . $HD/ $FND/ $LOW"
X Link 2025-02-21T04:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Andy again shit talking his competitors on the call while is going nowhere and he keeps acquiring shit cos. $CSGP http://Homes.com http://Homes.com"
X Link 2025-04-30T14:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Because $FICO takes 50% pricing and all credit bureaus get their cut of it. Why do some credit reports cost double (Bidens term) from what they did during President Trumps first term Why do some credit reports cost double (Bidens term) from what they did during President Trumps first term"
X Link 2025-05-21T14:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Listen to one of the $FICO earnings call and you will see how management boasts about taking 50% pricing per year. Thanks for input. Still not happy with FICO. We should be making some decisions on all related items in next 1-3 weeks. Thanks for input. Still not happy with FICO. We should be making some decisions on all related items in next 1-3 weeks"
X Link 2025-05-27T18:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$SHW is freezing 401K contributions denoting sales reps and getting rid of store labor. $SHW is the best run company among building producta companies. It seems it is ugly for housing and can get uglier if we don't see mortgage rates come down"
X Link 2025-09-11T02:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Core Celsius sales seems to be hitting a plateau at 9% market share. Numbers still look good when factoring Alani Nu as part of $CELH. Don't have high hopes from Rockstar as the brand continues to stagnate at 2% market share"
X Link 2025-09-16T15:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ORCL's infra capex will likely be debt funded and that can take AI capex spend to bubble type levels as $AMZN $GOOGL and $MSFT spend more to protect their share. Hyperscalers have used cash flows to fund capex but they may soon have to take things a notch higher"
X Link 2025-09-16T20:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3. Covid is a ST tailwnd but [--] frzn it cn elevate grwth prmntly. Covid hs led [--] incrsd trial & millennials r loving it. If u will wrk 4m hm more often you will consume food at home more often. And frozen is healthy & convenient. Chck wht mgmt hs [--] say at DB conf. in Jun"
X Link 2020-07-24T00:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"4. Run with a pvt equity mindset M&A is imp. part of strategy. $NOMD is an indstry consolidator in European frzn fd mkt with a track record of acquiring assets at cheap valuations integrating them & deriving synergies (EBITDA mrgns expanded by [---] bps b/w [----] & 2019)"
X Link 2020-07-24T00:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@lhamtil Reminds me of Givaudan & Symrise. Small part of total product cost (2%-5%) but key ingredients in product formulation. https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1293814892143706112 https://x.com/beyond_mental/status/1293814892143706112"
X Link 2021-08-01T22:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Post_Market There are many chinks in $JDEP story - $NESN taking mkt share in Europe. CEO leaving for the weirdest of reason and in all likelihood JAB did not make much money after taking it pvt (rather my math suggested that at IPO price they at best made 5-7% IRR)"
X Link 2021-08-04T19:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@CharlesGoodnig1 @Post_Market If you look at the multiples & $ that JAB paid for consolidating coffee assets across the world and the multiple/valuation at which $JDEP was listed at it is hard to make the math work. Even if you assume dividends that JAB paid itself hard to come-up with anything MSD IRR"
X Link 2021-08-04T19:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Post_Market Another gem from JAB playbook. Still don't understand how they allocate capital. $COTY $JDEP $DNUT.list goes on. If I look at the portfolio Panera is the only crown jewel"
X Link 2021-08-23T20:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@lhamtil Starbucks deal was darn good it really helped $NESN to plug the gap in the portfolio. Nespresso was a premium product they did not have mainstream pods in retail and $JDEP was taking market share. Starbucks deal helped fix all that"
X Link 2021-09-01T12:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@lhamtil $WMS had an analyst day this morning it is a material conversion story similar to $AZEK and $TREX"
X Link 2022-03-10T20:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@lhamtil $SWMA gets them everything - distribution + great products. They will do everything to get their hands on it"
X Link 2022-09-29T16:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Covering anything cyclical is such a brain damaging experience. Missing my $SWMA $PM"
X Link 2022-10-12T17:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Many are thrilled by $MO getting a $2.7bn for doing nothing. But this lowers $MO terminal value it is just a better version of Imperial now. This makes $PM take control of its destiny with $SWMA getting them distribution & best shot at most profitable tobacco market in world"
X Link 2022-10-20T13:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"It is all about risk management. Doling out money is easy but doing so while maintaining risk guardrails is tough. No wonder $HDFC Bank trades at 3x TBV. Lending is a tough business littered with landmines. (a) Success in lending ultimately comes down to quality of underwriting; extremely hard to walk the fine balance between opening the funnel too wide (being lax) to drive revenue versus being too conservative and denying Lending is a tough business littered with landmines. (a) Success in lending ultimately comes down to quality of underwriting; extremely hard to walk the fine balance"
X Link 2023-04-01T20:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$PM got a killer deal with Zyn and $SWMA. That's what good assets in hand of good management teams can do"
X Link 2023-07-20T15:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Imagine $MAS spun out $IBP's competitor $BLD in 2013-14 as management wanted to reduce its exposure to the new construction market. $BLD and $IBP have outperformed rest of the industry by a mile. Such has been consolidation and turn in new housing market since [----]. This morning I published a profile of $IBP which has been rolling up local insulation installation businesses since [----] and currently has a 30% share of U.S. residential completions. It's the #2 installer in the U.S. after TopBuild $BLD (40% share). https://t.co/RObtwSovPX This morning I published a profile of $IBP which has been"
X Link 2024-01-22T13:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$AGJ and $BRO have been pehnomenal success stories and act as toll booth for insurance underwriting. Plus they allocate capital towards consolidation. Sticky revenues + MSD growers + disciplined capital allocation = compounding of returns. Today's episode is on Arthur J. Gallagher the 3rd largest insurance broker in the world. The business has grown every year for the past [--] decades. (With one exception 2020). Learn how industry dynamics M&A and the Gallagher Way have powered this compounding machine. https://t.co/cITVvqXNne Today's episode is on Arthur J. Gallagher the 3rd largest insurance"
X Link 2024-02-07T18:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Hearing the same on agents are liking $CSGP's customer service vs $ZG's. Takes few hours to fix incorrect details vs weeks for other platforms. http://Homes.com What a wild ethos: We never talk to customers after we sell them $CSGP https://t.co/yfP5RWErIT http://Homes.com What a wild ethos: We never talk to customers after we sell them $CSGP https://t.co/yfP5RWErIT"
X Link 2024-04-05T12:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting chart on where housing supply stands by builder footprint. Supply situation looks okay so far. $NVR and $TOL are best positioned $DHI and $PHM closer to mean"
X Link 2024-04-23T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For context $BURL trades at 27x CY25 EPS. Will grow EPS at mid 20s rate. $TJX grow EPS at low-teens rate and trades at similar multiple. $TJX has been an exceptional retail concept. In last [--] months $BURL has shown evidence of improved with the aim to close its performance gap vs $TJX and $ROST. If it executes on its plan $BURL can deliver 25% EPS growth over next [--] years. Reminds me of $LOW in [----]. https://t.co/hdqS7FKQvM $TJX has been an exceptional retail concept. In last [--] months $BURL has shown evidence of improved with the aim to close its performance gap vs $TJX and $ROST. If it"
X Link 2024-08-30T21:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Serial fraudster. $EBIX $EBIXQ https://www.prnewswire.com/in/news-releases/ebix-exits-chapter-11-and-is-debt-free-worldwide-now-302236800.html https://www.prnewswire.com/in/news-releases/ebix-exits-chapter-11-and-is-debt-free-worldwide-now-302236800.html"
X Link 2024-09-03T16:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Anything linked to housing turnover has been under so much pressure in last [--] years that unit demand is close to GFC lows. Mattresses and furniture are prime examples of it. Given where rates are recovery will look similar to post GFC recovery i.e a slow burn. $TPX $W $RH"
X Link 2024-09-26T02:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ Some interesting stats on $ZOMATO vs $SWIGGY ahead of later's IPO. #Zomato has 45% higher MTUs 30% higher GMV and far superior margins in food delivery. But #Swiggy is dominant in order frequency both at app level and order frequency of Zomato gold"
X Link 2024-10-04T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"All in for trash talking competitor when your own product is having explosive adoption and growth. Not when you have spent $2bn and will be spending another billion with little to show in form of product adoption. $CSGP $ZG Not sure I have heard anyone sht talk as much as Andy Florance about a competitor during earnings call. Easily the most entertaining call I listen every quarter $CSGP https://t.co/OCAjGeaajD Not sure I have heard anyone sht talk as much as Andy Florance about a competitor during earnings call. Easily the most entertaining call I listen every quarter $CSGP"
X Link 2024-10-23T13:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Andy can trash talk $ZG fact is $ZG is crushing numbers and is throwing sales people at a product problem. $CSGP http://Homes.com http://Homes.com"
X Link 2024-11-07T14:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@borrowed_ideas I am glad they are no longer trashing $ZG. $ZG has executed well despite a tough housing market. has a product market fit problem will need some heavy lifting to fix it. This is not a problem that will get fixed by throwing sales force behind it. http://Homes.com http://Homes.com"
X Link 2024-11-20T03:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$CSGP investor day is depressing"
X Link 2024-12-05T15:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This is the only small positive from today's Investor Day. $CSGP"
X Link 2024-12-06T02:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Speedwell_LLC Starting point for valuation is different. I would have bought $DHI and $PHM had they been trading close to book. Numbers for most builders are getting revised down. Despite recent pullback most lbig builders are trading at 1.7x TBV"
X Link 2025-02-18T21:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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