#  @alphaticaio Alphatica Alphatica posts on X about $spy, flow, mms, $qqq the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1678542437420085248/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +44% - [--] Month [-------] +563% - [--] Months [-------] +256% - [--] Year [-------] +17,365% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1678542437420085248/posts_active)  - [--] Week [---] -21% - [--] Month [---] +202% - [--] Months [---] +113% - [--] Year [-----] +4,358% ### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1678542437420085248/followers)  - [--] Week [---] +24% - [--] Month [---] +59% - [--] Months [---] +234% - [--] Year [---] +908% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1678542437420085248/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) 81.68% [finance](/list/finance) 68.7% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 22.14% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 6.11% [countries](/list/countries) 1.53% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 0.76% [products](/list/products) 0.76% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 0.76% [exchanges](/list/exchanges) 0.76% [financial services](/list/financial-services) 0.76% **Social topic influence** [$spy](/topic/$spy) #170, [flow](/topic/flow) #2115, [mms](/topic/mms) #85, [$qqq](/topic/$qqq) #682, [bearish](/topic/bearish) #153, [gamma](/topic/gamma) #278, [bullish](/topic/bullish) #522, [ai](/topic/ai) 9.16%, [cash flow](/topic/cash-flow) #283, [$vix](/topic/$vix) #165 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@theblacklinehq](/creator/undefined) [@thetranscript](/creator/undefined) [@alphaticahq](/creator/undefined) [@keemstar](/creator/undefined) [@macroedgeres](/creator/undefined) [@deebosa](/creator/undefined) [@grindeoptions](/creator/undefined) [@alc2022](/creator/undefined) [@michaeljburry](/creator/undefined) [@fish38421672](/creator/undefined) [@gentlemanchris8](/creator/undefined) [@ass_sarcasm](/creator/undefined) [@cjpimentocheese](/creator/undefined) [@neosoireth](/creator/undefined) [@keokanden](/creator/undefined) [@hedgeblade](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@traderpete911](/creator/undefined) [@theaithingads](/creator/undefined) [@ali8787h](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [Vixco (VIX)](/topic/$vix) [Mastercard, Inc. (MA)](/topic/$ma) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [General Dynamics Corporation (GD)](/topic/$gd) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO)](/topic/$avgo) [Now Coin (NOW)](/topic/$now) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl) [Salesforce Inc (CRM)](/topic/$crm) [Coherent Inc (COHR)](/topic/$cohr) [Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH)](/topic/$moh) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [AppLovin Corporation (APP)](/topic/$app) [Humana Inc (HUM)](/topic/$hum) [Atlassian Corporation PLC (TEAM)](/topic/$team) [CatCoin (CAT)](/topic/$cat) [Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)](/topic/$tsn) [Gartner Inc (IT)](/topic/$it) [Hubbell, Inc. (HUBB)](/topic/$hubb) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Roblox Corp. (RBLX)](/topic/$rblx) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Burrys laying out the S-1 receipts. The numbers are accurate - $3.96B in cumulative losses $1.1B in options to Karp before going public Series K at $11.38/share. But the historical losses arent the real question anymore. PLTR turned profitable in [----]. Revenue is growing. Government contracts are sticky. The stock went from $11 to $120+. The bull case: AI is a tailwind. Palantir becomes the operating system for enterprises navigating the AI transition. Government moat is deep. Clearances and relationships dont get disrupted easily. The bear case nobodys saying out loud: AI might be an" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021947306707169384) 2026-02-12T13:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "How quickly sentiment shifts $NVDA losing favor highlights how fragile this market is. Without the MAG-7 and especially its leader its tough to see the S&P [---] turning things around anytime soon. 🤔 #NVDA $SPY $QQQ $VIX" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/1913711052556038562) 2025-04-19T21:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$TEAM going to crater. $SPY $QQQ $VIX" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/1953551497972613194) 2025-08-07T20:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$SPY positioning updateit's getting worse not better. MMs covered 4.5M shares of short delta since open leaving less squeeze fuel. Negative gamma deepened: $690: -$394M (was -$336M) $688: -$168M (was -$106M) $680: -$346M (was -$309M) NTM put OI jumped +230K contracts. Traders are adding protection not closing. The $695 magnet still exists but you have to climb through accelerators to get there. Path of least resistance: lower. $QQQ $VIX $SPY https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011468023941521723 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011468023941521723" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2011468023941521723) 2026-01-14T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$GM reports Tuesday pre-market. PERFECT 10-quarter beat streak. Management raised guidance. OUR ESTIMATE: EPS: $2.35 Revenue: $46.5B Direction: BEAT Initial Stock Reaction: Negative Here's what the data says 👇 🧵THE SETUP: Q3 crushed it: EPS: $2.80 (beat $2.33 est by 20%) U.S. share: 17% (highest Q3 since 2017) Incentives below industry avg for 10th straight quarter. Management RAISED full-year guidance. THE PATTERN: Last [--] quarters of surprises: Q2 '24: +11% Q3 '24: +24% Q4 '24: +4% Q1 '25: +5% Q2 '25: +1% Q3 '25: +20% Beat rate: 100% (10Q) 🔥 Avg surprise: 12% ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2015994363315159243) 2026-01-27T03:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$ELV Q4 [----] RESULTS Another health insurer same story. THE NUMBERS Q4 EPS: $3.33 (adjusted) Q4 Revenue: $49.3B (+10% YoY) Sounds fine until you see the margins. THE PROBLEM Benefit Expense Ratio: Q4 2024: 92.4% Q4 2025: 93.5% (+110 bps) FY 2025: 90.0% (+150 bps YoY) Medical costs eating the business. Sound familiar THE GUIDANCE (This is the headline) [----] Adjusted EPS: At least $25.50 [----] Actual: $30.29 That's a -16% YoY decline in earnings. [----] Revenue: "Low single digit DECLINE" First revenue decline in years. They're shedding 1.5-2M members. THE PATTERN $UNH yesterday: MLR 92.4%" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2016482155426107650) 2026-01-28T12:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Wed be buyers on any dip in $GD. Earnings quality is pristine. $SPY $QQQ $GD OPTIONS FLOW - EXTREMELY BULLISH: [--] unusual positions tracked ALL [--] STILL OPEN INTO TOMORROW. Largest positions: $360 Call 03/20: $1.27M premium (Z-score 10.5) $360 Call 06/18: $1.02M premium (Z-score 9.4) $410 Call 01/15/27: $602K premium (LEAPS) $400 Call $GD OPTIONS FLOW - EXTREMELY BULLISH: [--] unusual positions tracked ALL [--] STILL OPEN INTO TOMORROW. Largest positions: $360 Call 03/20: $1.27M premium (Z-score 10.5) $360 Call 06/18: $1.02M premium (Z-score 9.4) $410 Call 01/15/27: $602K premium (LEAPS) $400 Call" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2016509510492225786) 2026-01-28T13:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$GD EARNINGS - Called it. Beat it. Selling off anyway. We predicted $4.05 EPS / $13.2B revenue. Street had $3.95 / $13.0B. Actual: $4.17 EPS / $14.4B revenue Beat both. Revenue crushed by $1.4B. THE NUMBERS: Backlog: $118B (+30% YoY) Book-to-bill: 1.6x Total contract value: $179B FY EPS: +13.4% Cash flow: 137% of earnings WHY THE SELLOFF: Aerospace margins compressed [---] bps (15.6% 12.7%). Gulfstream deliveries strong (158 vs [---] YoY) but margins pressured. OUR TAKE: Marine Systems +21.7% revenue margins expanding. Combat Systems backlog up 60% ($17B $27B). $179B in contract visibility. This" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2016522190598832351) 2026-01-28T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$GD OPTIONS FLOW - Post-Earnings Beat earnings. Sold off. Options market says buy the dip. Current: $349.67 SENTIMENT P/C Ratio: [----] bullish NTM P/C: [----] bullish Net Delta: MMs short 468K shares No panic. Low put hedging despite the selloff. GAMMA STRUCTURE Sitting on accelerator: $350: -$0.6M 🚀 (current level) $345: -$0.3M 🚀 Magnets above: $360: +$0.3M 🧲 $370: +$0.5M 🧲 $380: +$0.5M 🧲 TRANSLATION Options market isn't buying the selloff narrative. P/C [----] = no fear MMs short 468K shares = buy pressure on rallies Magnets at $370/$380 = where flow expects it to go OUR CALL We predicted" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2016529839889539244) 2026-01-28T15:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$GD Recovering nicely. Hopefully you bought the dip $GD EARNINGS - Called it. Beat it. Selling off anyway. We predicted $4.05 EPS / $13.2B revenue. Street had $3.95 / $13.0B. Actual: $4.17 EPS / $14.4B revenue Beat both. Revenue crushed by $1.4B. THE NUMBERS: Backlog: $118B (+30% YoY) Book-to-bill: 1.6x Total https://t.co/Rbb08nipf9 $GD EARNINGS - Called it. Beat it. Selling off anyway. We predicted $4.05 EPS / $13.2B revenue. Street had $3.95 / $13.0B. Actual: $4.17 EPS / $14.4B revenue Beat both. Revenue crushed by $1.4B. THE NUMBERS: Backlog: $118B (+30% YoY) Book-to-bill: 1.6x Total" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2016546472519479373) 2026-01-28T16:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$MA If you're short into this print we pray for you. It's a coin flip right It can go either way. 🤑 But in all seriousness we believe market participants overreacted to the 10% interest rate cap noise. Good Luck $SPY $QQQ #mastercard #creditcards $MA Q4 [----] EARNINGS PREVIEW Reports Thursday Jan [--] before market BLACKLINE/ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $4.28 (Street: $4.24) Revenue: $8.70B (Street: $8.78B) Initial Stock Reaction: UP THE SETUP: Beat streak: 21+ consecutive quarters (100% rate) Q4 is MA's BEST seasonal https://t.co/kOxkHsvD2H $MA Q4 [----] EARNINGS PREVIEW Reports Thursday Jan 39" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2016676594589335819) 2026-01-29T00:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TheTranscript_ Value-added services is the story. +26% this quarter +23% full year. Meanwhile stock was down 8.8% YTD on rate cap fears that don't apply to networks. Networks charge merchant fees not interest. The mispricing is correcting. $MA" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2016916669428281848) 2026-01-29T16:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The $MA playbook: Market panics over rate cap fears Stock sells off for weeks Call OI quietly doubles at the money Earnings beat +4.3% Flow Fear. Every time. $SPY $QQQ" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2016997070230405121) 2026-01-29T22:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$GD 10-K just hit the wire. ALPHATICA Earnings Quality Score: 8.5/10 Tax Efficiency: ✅ Improving Profitability: ✅ Strong Capital Position: ✅ Clean Demand Visibility: ✅ Excellent Balance Sheet: ✅ Strengthening Operating Trends: ⚠ Watch Rating: ADD EXPOSURE Management is confident. The balance sheet says they're executing. One flag: margin pressure worth monitoring. We would be adding here. Not investment advice $SPY $QQQ $VIX @alphaticahq Wed be buyers on any dip in $GD. Earnings quality is pristine. $SPY $QQQ Wed be buyers on any dip in $GD. Earnings quality is pristine. $SPY $QQQ" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2017314988906402232) 2026-01-30T19:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The Rate Cap Misconception 💳 We reviewed both $V & $MA Q&A from their respective conference calls yesterday. Everyone's panicking about credit card rate caps hitting them both. But here's what nobody's saying out loud: V and MA don't earn a dime from interest rates. Their business model: Transaction fees ✓ Interchange fees ✓ Network fees ✓ Value-added services ✓ Interest income That goes to the banks. Rate caps are a problem for: Capital One ( $COF) Discover ( $DFS) Synchrony ( $SYF) JPMorgan Chase ( $JPM) Not the networks. Management talked about "ecosystem concerns." Neither explicitly" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2017356145711816978) 2026-01-30T21:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements ""$1T company in the making" What the CEO says vs. what our data says: Our Earnings Quality Signal on NOW: ⚠ Mixed Management confidence quietly declining. FY earnings inflated by a $723M one-time tax benefit. Great business. Premium valuation. When the CEO says "best entry point" - he's selling. $NOW https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017696158798279159 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017696158798279159" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2017696158798279159) 2026-01-31T20:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@KEEMSTAR Earnings beats. This week we called: $CAT: +11.2% EPS beat $MA: +12.3% EPS beat $V: +1.0% EPS beat $AAPL: +6.4% EPS beat (record quarter) [--] for [--]. Companies printing money dont care about the macro panic. $SPY" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2017701240159748556) 2026-01-31T20:47Z [---] followers, 12.7K engagements "$ORCL bought Cerner for $28B in [----]. Here's what it did to the balance sheet: FY2020: $21.8B equity FY2023: -$6.2B equity That's not a typo. Stockholders' equity went NEGATIVE. Now recovering. FY2025: $8.7B But the hangover isn't over: Operating margin: 37.6% 26.2% (still depressed) SBC: $1.6B $3.5B (doubled in [--] years) Retained earnings: -$22.6B (deeper in the hole) $62B in goodwill sitting on $8.7B of equity. One impairment away from trouble. ALPHATICA Earnings Quality Score: 5.5/10 - HOLD Great cloud story. Fragile balance sheet. $SPY $QQQ $VIX @theblacklinehq" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2018027450135941255) 2026-02-01T18:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MacroEdgeRes $ORCL cutting 20-30K jobs. Here's why 👇 Stockholders' equity after the $28B Cerner acquisition: When equity goes NEGATIVE layoffs follow. The balance sheet predicted this. @theblacklinehq" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2018035296256835820) 2026-02-01T18:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Adding to this: What the 10-K shows that cash flow doesn't: Operating margin: 37.6% 26.2% (still hasn't recovered post-Cerner) SBC: $1.6B $3.5B (doubled in [--] years - diluting shareholders) Retained earnings: -$22.6B (deeper in the hole) Larry's AI bet requires cash they don't have. Something had to give. [-----] jobs is the something. $ORCL https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018106276933476794 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018106276933476794" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2018106276933476794) 2026-02-01T23:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$TSN Q1 FY2026 EARNINGS PREVIEW Reports tomorrow morning (pre-market) ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $1.05 (Street: $0.94) Revenue: $14.00B (Street: $14.02B) THE SETUP: [--] consecutive beats. Not small beats CRUSHING it: Q3 FY25: BEAT +32.2% Q2 FY25: BEAT +16.7% Q1 FY25: BEAT +12.2% Q4 FY24: BEAT +29.5% Q3 FY24: BEAT +33.3% This is a turnaround story. After the 2022-2023 chicken margin collapse Tyson has beaten [--] straight with double-digit surprises. THE BUSINESS: Tyson is the largest U.S. meat processor: Beef: $21.9B revenue (LOSING money) Chicken: $17.8B (recovered) Prepared Foods: $9.8B (stable)" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2018178661233336409) 2026-02-02T04:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$TSN Q1 FY2026 EARNINGS: THE RECEIPTS RESULT: BEAT ✅ ACTUAL RESULTS: Adj EPS: $0.97 Revenue: $14.31B vs ESTIMATES: Metric Actual ALPHATICA Street ----------------------------------- EPS $0.97 $1.05 $0.94 Revenue $14.31B $14.00B $14.02B BEAT VS STREET: EPS: +3.2% Revenue: +2.1% ALPHATICA CALL: BEAT ✅ Confidence: HIGH Direction: CORRECT ✅ We said BEAT. It beat. 10th consecutive quarter. ACCURACY CHECK: EPS: Street closer (3.1% error vs our 8.2%) Revenue: Street closer (2.0% error vs our 2.2%) We over-estimated EPS magnitude. The beat streak continued but at smaller surprise than recent 16-32%" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2018330323101024309) 2026-02-02T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$MA +2% this morning. +12.3% EPS beat Thursday. [--] consecutive quarters of beats. We called it: BEAT + UP. ✅ The rate cap panic was always mispriced. Networks don't charge interest. #Mastercard $SPY $QQQ $VIX" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2018333937441873957) 2026-02-02T14:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$AVGO FLOW UPDATE - Someone Knew Reuters just dropped: OpenAI is "unsatisfied" with NVIDIA's inference chips. They're looking at alternatives: AMD Cerebras Groq. But here's what matters: AVGO already has a custom AI accelerator deal with OpenAI. Announced October. [--] gigawatts of custom chips. Today's flow tells the story. THE DATA: Net Delta: +38.9% (heavy buying) Buy Volume: 15.6M shares Sell Volume: 6.9M shares Avg Buy Size: [--] shares Avg Sell Size: [--] shares Size ratio: 2.13x Institutions are the buyers. THE PATTERN: Pre-market: Retail accumulation 9:30-10:30 AM: Institutional buying" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2018470312208159011) 2026-02-02T23:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$TER Q4 FY2025 EARNINGS: THE RECEIPTS RESULT: BEAT ✅ ACTUAL RESULTS: Non-GAAP EPS: $1.80 Revenue: $1.083B vs ESTIMATES: Metric Actual ALPHATICA Street ----------------------------------- EPS $1.80 $1.40 $1.36 Revenue $1.083B $1.00B $0.97B BEAT VS STREET: EPS: +32.4% Revenue: +11.6% ALPHATICA CALL: BEAT Confidence: MEDIUM Direction: CORRECT ✅ We said BEAT. It beat. Massively. ACCURACY CHECK: EPS: ALPHATICA WINS ✅ (22.2% under vs Street's 24.4%) Revenue: ALPHATICA WINS ✅ (7.7% under vs Street's 10.4%) Both under-estimated nobody saw this AI demand surge coming. STOCK REACTION: Initial: DOWN to" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2018484653133328690) 2026-02-03T00:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$IT (Gartner) Q4 [----] WHY IT'S CRATERING THE PROBLEM: Contract Value growth: +1% FX Neutral that's the killer. For a subscription research business CV growth IS the business. +1% is stall speed. SEGMENT BREAKDOWN: Insights: +3% (core business slowing) Conferences: +14% (recovery) Consulting: -13% Other: -22% FULL YEAR [----] DAMAGE: GAAP EPS: $9.65 (-40% YoY) Net Income: $0.7B (-42% YoY) $150M goodwill impairment on Digital Markets CEO GENE HALL: "Fourth quarter financial results were ahead of expectations. Looking ahead we expect CV to accelerate throughout 2026." Translation: We know CV" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2018683435926147549) 2026-02-03T13:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$AVGO Morning Update Current: $322.41 (-2.63%) WHAT HAPPENED: Pre-market held the gains - [--] absorption/accumulation signals through 9:26 AM at $334.63. Then the open hit: 9:41 AM: $330.30 (gap down) 9:56 AM: $324.66 10:04 AM: $322.41 Institutions absorbed selling pre-market but flipped to net sellers at the open. CONTEXT: The whole semi complex is getting hit this morning. This looks like sector rotation not AVGO-specific. The OpenAI/NVIDIA thesis is still intact - custom silicon deals don't disappear in a day. But the trade is giving back yesterday's accumulation. LEVELS TO WATCH:" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2018703711791407447) 2026-02-03T15:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$IT (Gartner) down 25% this morning. We flagged this yesterday. But the real warning hit Net Income in FY2022. A $130M charge buried in the tax footnotes. Management's private signal: they didn't believe in their own future earnings. Filed February [----]. Two years before the collapse. 1/ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018716569799467387 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018716569799467387" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2018716569799467387) 2026-02-03T16:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$GD Update Jan 27: Called EPS beat ($4.05 vs Street $3.95) Actual: $4.17 ✅ Jan 28: Stock sold off on margin concerns. We said: "buying opportunity not a sell signal." Today: +7.26% Alphatica Earnings Quality: [--] bullish / [--] bearish Options flow: P/C [----] no panic The fundamentals were never broken. Market caught up. $GD Wed be buyers on any dip in $GD. Earnings quality is pristine. $SPY $QQQ Wed be buyers on any dip in $GD. Earnings quality is pristine. $SPY $QQQ" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2018784288028885049) 2026-02-03T20:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SPY CLOSE - Trapped Below $690 Wall Close: $688.79 (-1.01% on day) DELTA - MMs STILL LONG Morning: MMs short 26M shares Close: MMs LONG 18.3M shares 44M share flip today. Selling pressure eased into close but MMs still selling rallies. GAMMA - $690 BECAME A MONSTER $690: -$460M 🚀 tripled today $689: -$144M 🚀 $688: -$74M 🚀 $685: -$124M 🚀 $680: -$205M 🚀 $675: -$163M 🚀 $700 magnet faded: +$101M 🧲 PUT HEDGING HELD NTM Put OI: +10.9% NTM Call OI: -4.4% TRANSLATION $690 is now the biggest wall on the board. MMs sell any push into it. Below: $685 $680 $675 all accelerator." [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2018798968374001772) 2026-02-03T21:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$LLY Q4 FY2025 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Wednesday February [--] Pre-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $6.99 Street Revenue: $17.87B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $7.05 Revenue: $18.1B Initial Stock Reaction: Down OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ THE PATTERN: Beat Rate: 73% (8 of [--] quarters) Last Quarter: BEAT +10.2% ($7.02 vs $6.37 est) Avg Surprise (3yr): +7.4% Recent History: Q3 2025: BEAT +10.2% Q2 2025: BEAT +12.9% Q1 2025: MISS -5.6% Q4 2024: BEAT +5.0% BLACKLINE/ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL: Tax Efficiency: ⚠ WATCH Profitability: ✅ BULLISH Operating Trends: ✅ BULLISH Earnings Quality: ✅ HEALTHY Capital" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2018872401753202793) 2026-02-04T02:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$ABBV Q4 FY2025 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Tomorrow Pre-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $2.65 Company Guidance: $3.32 - $3.36 (ex-IPR&D) Street Revenue: $16.3B+ ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $2.70 Revenue: $16.4B Initial Stock Reaction: Down OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ THE PATTERN: Beat Rate: 85% (17 of [--] quarters) Last Quarter: BEAT +3% (normalized for IPR&D) Recent History: Q3 2025: BEAT +3% (reported -43% but IPR&D distorted) Q2 2025: BEAT +2% ($2.97 vs $2.91) Q1 2025: BEAT +3% ($2.46 vs $2.40) Q4 2024: BEAT +2% ($2.16 vs $2.12) Note: Q3 included $1.50/share IPR&D expense. Company BEAT their own guidance" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2018894455554613571) 2026-02-04T03:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SPY MID-MORNING - Structure Improving Current: $688.50 (+0.08%) DELTA - MMs COVERING LONGS Yesterday: MMs LONG 28M shares Now: MMs LONG 6M shares 22M share shift. Less selling pressure. Will buy harder on rally. GAMMA - $690 WALL WEAKENING Yesterday's monster at $690 (-$460M) Now just -$70M 🚀 Accelerators fading: $690: -$70M 🚀 (was -$190M) $689: -$29M 🚀 (was -$64M) $688: -$30M 🚀 (was -$72M) $685: -$121M 🚀 (was -$160M) MAGNETS BUILDING ABOVE $691: +$9M 🧲 flipped positive $692: +$22M 🧲 $695: +$75M 🧲 $696: +$105M 🧲 $700: +$133M 🧲 CALL BUYING PICKED UP NTM Call OI: +7% NTM Put OI: flat" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019077331982102923) 2026-02-04T15:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Software stocks plunging globally fears of disruption hitting SaaS margins hard extending the tech rout. This feels like another chaotic twist in the AI 'three- body problem': hyperscalers can't stop building smart money can't coordinate exits and leverage amplifies the risks. Prescient read amid the red tape: $QQQ $NVDA $MSFT $CRM $NOW $VIX $SPY https://x.com/theblacklinehq/status/2017804957009797275 https://t.co/InxgI4XRqJ https://x.com/theblacklinehq/status/2017804957009797275 https://t.co/InxgI4XRqJ" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019093602400346383) 2026-02-04T17:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@dee_bosa - This is the thread that should keep every SaaS CEO up at night. 🧵 The moat question is THE question. For years we've been told: "It would take years and millions to rebuild Now someone recreates $MNDY in an hour. Before coffee. So what IS the moat in [----] ❌ Not the UI (AI builds that) ❌ Not the integrations (APIs are commoditized) ❌ Not "features" (vibe-coded in minutes) Maybe: ✅ Network effects / your team is already there ✅ Data gravity / years of your workflows ✅ Enterprise trust & compliance ✅ Brand & distribution But even those feel shakier by the day. Watching closely:" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019098921918767231) 2026-02-04T17:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "🚨 ALPHATICA BUY SIGNAL: $ORCL THE SETUP: Oracle down 24% since September. [--] consecutive red days. Today alone -6%. WHY: $45-50B capital raise spooked investors. Dilution fears. Bondholder lawsuit noise. WHAT THEY'RE MISSING: This capital funds REAL demand OpenAI Meta Nvidia xAI contracts. UBS cut target but maintains BUY. Business isn't broken. Balance sheet is funding growth. THE SIGNAL: Our quantitative model triggered a buy today. Extreme oversold conditions on a quality name. Over [--] years pooled trades [----] trades 58.8% win rate 6/8 statistical significance tests passed ORCL" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019121794158821744) 2026-02-04T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SPY AFTERNOON - Morning Optimism Gone Current: $684.25 (-0.62% from morning) DELTA - COMPLETE REVERSAL Morning: MMs LONG 6M shares Now: MMs LONG 49M shares 43M share flip. Back to selling every bounce. MAGNETS FADED $696: +$37M 🧲 (was +$105M) $695: +$38M 🧲 (was +$75M) $700: +$96M 🧲 (was +$133M) Upside pull cut in half. ACCELERATORS STRENGTHENED BELOW $682: -$75M 🚀 (was -$50M) $675: -$201M 🚀 (was -$173M) $670: -$193M 🚀 (was -$160M) NTM POSITIONING FLIPPED Call OI: -7% Put OI: +2.6% Protection bid is back. TRANSLATION Morning: Trapdoor closing path to $695. Afternoon: Trapdoor reopening." [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019128427253580008) 2026-02-04T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "We would not enter until the price reaches $220 or even a few dollars below. That's where the stock price is heading. $UNH $UNH Follow-Up: The Footnotes Told the Story Last night we posted our deep dive into UNH's annual filings. The warning signs were there: What we flagged:🚨 MLR spiked to 85.6% up 2.4pp YoY highest in 6+ years 🚨 $7.4B margin compression ⚠ Debt up $14B YoY to $72.4B ⚠ https://t.co/yMmRv5CaFo $UNH Follow-Up: The Footnotes Told the Story Last night we posted our deep dive into UNH's annual filings. The warning signs were there: What we flagged:🚨 MLR spiked to 85.6% up 2.4pp" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019145356357824531) 2026-02-04T20:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$COHR ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL SCORE: 2/6 ⚠ 🚨 NOT A BUYER The headline numbers look great (revenue +17% EPS +71%) but the underlying signals are flashing warnings: [--]. Management isn't confident. [--]. Customers aren't prepaying (contract liability down 56%). [--]. Cash isn't following earnings (CFO/NI of 0.28x). [--]. Inventory building faster than sales (+29% vs +17%) This is a classic case of earnings quality diverging from earnings quantity. The reported numbers look good but the signals that predict sustainability are weak. Would wait for: Contract liability stabilization and CFO" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019171550864331183) 2026-02-04T22:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@GrindeOptions Agreed. Structure can flip overnight. Yesterday MMs were selling every bounce. This morning they started covering. Volatility isnt a reason to panic - its a reason to read the flow" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019218212114858476) 2026-02-05T01:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$HUBB (Hubbell Incorporated) BLACKLINE/ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL: 6/6 ✅ FY25 Revenue: $5.84B (+4% YoY) FY25 Adj. EPS: $18.21 (+10% YoY) Adj. Op Margin: 22.7% Quality signals confirm the story: [--]. Management releasing tax reserves confident in profits [--]. Deferred revenue +223% customers prepaying [--]. CFO at 116% of net income cash exceeds earnings [--]. Inventory efficiency improving [--]. FCF conversion 99% Catalyst: Datacenter + grid modernization driving demand. Guiding 57% organic growth FY26. Bottom Line: Customer prepayments and cash flow confirm earnings quality not accounting noise." [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019242058955804824) 2026-02-05T02:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$COHR down 12% pre-market this morning. $COHR ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL SCORE: 2/6 ⚠ 🚨 NOT A BUYER The headline numbers look great (revenue +17% EPS +71%) but the underlying signals are flashing warnings: [--]. Management isn't confident. [--]. Customers aren't prepaying (contract liability down 56%). [--]. https://t.co/7lT4gjQxzm $COHR ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL SCORE: 2/6 ⚠ 🚨 NOT A BUYER The headline numbers look great (revenue +17% EPS +71%) but the underlying signals are flashing warnings: [--]. Management isn't confident. [--]. Customers aren't prepaying (contract liability down 56%)." [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019414849864778122) 2026-02-05T14:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$COHR HALTED $COHR ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL SCORE: 2/6 ⚠ 🚨 NOT A BUYER The headline numbers look great (revenue +17% EPS +71%) but the underlying signals are flashing warnings: [--]. Management isn't confident. [--]. Customers aren't prepaying (contract liability down 56%). [--]. https://t.co/7lT4gjQxzm $COHR ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL SCORE: 2/6 ⚠ 🚨 NOT A BUYER The headline numbers look great (revenue +17% EPS +71%) but the underlying signals are flashing warnings: [--]. Management isn't confident. [--]. Customers aren't prepaying (contract liability down 56%). [--]. https://t.co/7lT4gjQxzm" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019420739615748195) 2026-02-05T14:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$AVGO MORNING FLOW - Catalyst Working Current: $313.75 (+1.85% from $308.05 close) WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT Pre-market gapped to $325 (+5.5%) on the Google CapEx catalyst. Then sellers hit hard. $325 $311 in [--] minutes. Then buyers stepped in. $311 $324 snap reversal. Now settling at $313.75. FLOW Buy volume: 5.58M shares Sell volume: 4.41M shares Net delta: +1.17M shares (+11.7%) Buyers winning. INSTITUTIONAL FLOW Inst buys: 51.8% of large orders Not a blowout but institutions are net buyers through the volatility. KEY MOMENTS 9:03-9:18: Institutional selling hit. Price dropped to $312. 9:48:" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019431752272351410) 2026-02-05T15:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Alphabet's monster $175185B capex guidance for 2026nearly double last yearhas markets spooked again despite the earnings beat. Classic hyperscaler prisoner's dilemma: no one can stop building without falling behind even as ROI questions mount. This is the 'three-body problem' in action. Timely breakdown amid today's tech rout: $GOOGL $QQQ $NVDA $MSFT $VIX $SPY https://x.com/theblacklinehq/status/2017804957009797275 https://t.co/InxgI4XRqJ https://x.com/theblacklinehq/status/2017804957009797275 https://t.co/InxgI4XRqJ" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019440407763955771) 2026-02-05T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SPY AFTERNOON - Accelerators Building Around Price Current: $680.26 (+0.23% from morning) DELTA - MMs STILL HEAVILY SHORT Morning: MMs short 70M shares. Now: MMs short 65M shares. Slight covering but still massive buy pressure on any rally. GAMMA - $680 WALL GOT BIGGER $680: -$346M 🚀 (was -$246M) sitting right here $675: -$341M 🚀 (was -$291M) $670: -$238M 🚀 (was -$221M) Every accelerator below strengthened. ACCELERATORS ABOVE TOO $681: -$60M 🚀 $682: -$64M 🚀 $683: -$32M 🚀 $684: -$38M 🚀 Trapped between accelerators in both directions. NTM POSITIONING SHIFT Put OI: -212K (-5.5%) hedges" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019476564405059681) 2026-02-05T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$GOOGL AFTERNOON - Institutions Buying The Dip Current: $330.13 (-0.87%) at top of day's range THE MORNING Pre-market hit $333. Opened at $311 low on tariff panic. That's a 6.5% swing before most traders woke up. FLOW Buy volume: 15.7M shares Sell volume: 12.7M shares Net delta: +3M shares (+10.4%) Buyers winning decisively. INSTITUTIONAL FLOW Avg buy size: [--] shares. Avg sell size: [--] shares. Size ratio: 1.37x Institutions are the buyers. THE REVERSAL Pre-market: Distribution 🟠 (heavy selling down to $311) 9:36-10:36: Institutional buying started 12:51-14:19: Buying pressure 🟢 took over" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019493073437487177) 2026-02-05T19:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$AMZN Q4 [----] EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $1.96 Street Revenue: $210.9B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $1.96 Revenue: $211.8B OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ Numbers should beat. [--] straight beats with an average surprise of +23.4%. The real question is guidance and AWS trajectory. THE PATTERN: Beat Rate: 100% (8 of [--] quarters) Last Quarter: BEAT +27% Beat Streak: [--] quarters Recent History: Q3 2025: BEAT +27% ($1.95 vs $1.54) Q2 2025: BEAT +26% ($1.68 vs $1.33) Q1 2025: BEAT +17% ($1.59 vs $1.36) Q4 2024: BEAT +25% ($1.86 vs $1.49) Avg Surprise: +$0.28 per quarter ALPHATICA" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019504769673376007) 2026-02-05T20:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$RBLX Q4 FY2025 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: -$0.46 Street Revenue: $2.08B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: -$0.40 Revenue: $2.12B OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ Our model predicts -$0.28 vs street -$0.46. We're calling smaller loss than consensus. THE PATTERN: Recent Beat Rate: 87.5% (7 of [--] quarters) Overall Beat Rate: 55% (11 of 20) Last Quarter: BEAT +26% Recent History: Q3 FY25: BEAT +26% Q2 FY25: MISS -14% Q1 FY25: BEAT +20% Q4 FY24: BEAT +27% ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL: Tax Efficiency: ⚠ NEUTRAL Profitability: 🚨 BEARISH Operating Trends: ✅ BULLISH Earnings" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019513909003346079) 2026-02-05T20:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$RBLX Q4 [----] EARNINGS: BEAT ✅ RESULTS: EPS: -$0.45 vs -$0.46 est BEAT Revenue: $2.22B vs $2.08B est BEAT (+6.7%) OUR CALL: BEAT RESULT: BEAT ✅ ALPHATICA ESTIMATES VS ACTUAL: We said: -$0.40 EPS $2.12B revenue Actual: -$0.45 EPS $2.22B revenue Revenue beat even our above-street estimate. THE SETUP WAS THERE: Quality Signal: 2/6 BEARISH Chen Model: -$0.28 (bullish vs street) Recent Beat Rate: 87.5% We went with the model despite weak quality signal. Model delivered. WHAT WORKED: Revenue acceleration. $2.22B crushed the $2.08B estimate. Losses narrower than feared. -$0.45 beat the -$0.46" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019520208122139025) 2026-02-05T21:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$MOH CRUSHED - Healthcare Thesis Confirmed Down 28% pre-market. We've been warning about health insurers for weeks. This is why. THE NUMBERS Q4 EPS: -$3.15 (LOSS) Street expected: +$5.05 That's not a miss. That's a disaster. FULL YEAR COLLAPSE [----] EPS: $20.42 [----] EPS: $8.92 [----] Guidance: $3.20 That's an 84% EPS decline in two years. THE MEDICAL COST RATIO TELLS THE STORY Q4 [----] MCR: 90.2% Q4 [----] MCR: 94.6% When your medical costs are 94.6% of premium revenue there's almost nothing left. SEGMENT BREAKDOWN - ALL RED Medicaid MCR: 93.5% (was 90.2%) Medicare MCR: 97.5% (was 93.8%)" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019522536153694249) 2026-02-05T21:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$TEAM - Called It August 7: "TEAM going to crater." August [--] Price: $171 Today: $89 Down 48%. TODAY'S RESULTS Revenue: $1.59B (+23% YoY) ✅ BEAT Cloud: $1.07B (+26% YoY) ✅ First $1B quarter Non-GAAP EPS: $1.22 ✅ BEAT RPO: $3.8B (+44% YoY) ✅ Strong backlog STILL DOWN 9% AFTER HOURS Despite beating everything. WHY The AI disruption thesis. Anthropic's Claude and agentic AI are repricing the entire SaaS sector. When we called it in August the market hadn't fully priced in a world where AI agents replace the workflows Atlassian sells. Beat the quarter. Doesn't matter. Multiple compression is" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019552300390596933) 2026-02-05T23:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "after-hours. We apologize for the typo. $MOH" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019556838505648372) 2026-02-05T23:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@alc2022 The market is pricing AI as a tool not a product. Chips that power AI Buy. Infrastructure that enables AI Buy. Software that AI might replace Sell. The market isnt confused. Its just betting on the picks and shovels. $SPY $QQQ" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019560954686582944) 2026-02-05T23:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "10:52 AM $GOOGL MORNING - Institutions Buying The Dip Again Current: $322.84 (-2.5% on day) THE PATTERN REPEATS Yesterday: Gapped down on tariff panic institutions bought all day recovered from -6.5% to -0.9%. Today: Down 2.5% at the open. Same playbook unfolding. MORNING FLOW: Buy volume: 5.23M shares Sell volume: 4.66M shares Net delta: +565K shares (+5.7%) Buyers still winning despite the red tape. THE SIGNAL - STEALTH ACCUMULATION [--] of the last [--] intervals show 🟢 Stealth Accumulation or Buying Pressure. Price falling. Buy delta positive. Big money adding while weak hands sell. TRADE" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019802403898306658) 2026-02-06T15:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "How far does Bitcoin have to fall before Saylor goes insolvent We did the math. 🧵👇" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019821966140858684) 2026-02-06T17:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "THE SETUP: MSTR holds [------] BTC at $76052 avg cost. That's $54.3B in Bitcoin against $8.2B in convertible debt. Current BTC price: $77K. They're barely above breakeven" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019821968456061199) 2026-02-06T17:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "THE DEBT STRUCTURE: Here's what most people get wrong the converts have: -NO margin calls -Near-zero interest (0.42% blended) -Maturities spread 2028-2032 Saylor can't be "margin called" like a leveraged trader" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019821969991147617) 2026-02-06T17:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "THE REAL RISK: It's not the converts. It's the 11.25% preferred dividend. MSTR issued perpetual preferred stock (STRK) paying $900M+ annually by [----]. The software business only generates $50-100M in cash flow. That gap has to come from somewhere" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019821971736072278) 2026-02-06T17:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "THE THRESHOLDS: $76052 Breakeven (now) $50000 Refinancing stress (-34%) $40000 Crisis zone (-47%) $11500 Technical insolvency (-85%) At $11.5K liabilities exceed assets. Equity = $0" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019821973438931416) 2026-02-06T17:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "THE 2028-2030 PROBLEM: -$2B of notes can be PUT back to MSTR in March [----] -$3B matures December [----] $2B matures March [----] If BTC is at $40-50K when these come due refinancing gets very ugly" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019821975091442071) 2026-02-06T17:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "WHY HE SURVIVES LONGER THAN YOU THINK: [--]. No margin calls on the Bitcoin [--]. Can pay preferred dividends in stock (dilutive but not fatal) [--]. ATM program still has $8B+ capacity [--]. Software business is cash flow positive" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019821976869826718) 2026-02-06T17:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "ALPHATICA WEEKLY RECAP Week of February 2-6 [----] THIS WEEK'S CALLS: $GOOGL Called BEAT BEAT ✅ EPS: $2.82 vs $2.64 est (+6.8%) Revenue: $113.8B vs $111.5B est (+2.1%) Cloud accelerated +34% +48%. Record $400B+ revenue year. $QCOM Called BEAT BEAT ✅ EPS: $3.50 vs $3.40 est (+2.9%) Revenue: $12.25B vs $12.18B est (+0.6%) Record revenues. Beat streak: [--] quarters. $AMZN Called BEAT MISS ❌ EPS: $1.95 vs $1.96 est (missed by $0.01) Revenue: $213.4B vs $210.9B est (+1.2%) Revenue beat. EPS missed by a penny. Stock -13%. $RBLX Called BEAT BEAT ✅ EPS: -$0.45 vs -$0.46 est (beat) Revenue: $2.22B vs" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019847278845129162) 2026-02-06T18:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$AVGO CLOSE - Quiet Strength Close: $332.20 (+5.5% on the day) THE SETUP Wednesday: Google drops $175-185B CapEx bomb. AVGO makes their TPU chips. Thursday: Panic drags everything down. AVGO holds $311 twice. Friday: Rips 5.5% while market recovers. INTRADAY FLOW Order flow buy%: 63.7% Buyers in control all day. DARK POOL ACTIVITY Block trades: [---] ($1M+ each) Volume below price: $560M Volume above: $70M Heavy institutional activity concentrated in the $320-330 zone. Large players are engaged at these levels. KEY LEVELS Support: $330 $320 $311 (double bottom) Resistance: $333-$334 THE PICTURE" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019884601368580487) 2026-02-06T21:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SPY CLOSE - Structure Flipped Bullish Close: $690.69 (+1.93% on the day) DELTA - MMs FULLY SHORT Morning: MMs LONG 28M shares (selling rallies) Close: MMs SHORT 31M shares (buying dips) 59M share flip today. MMs now support the bid aggressively. GAMMA - MAGNETS STACKED ABOVE $690: +$96M 🧲 $691: +$216M 🧲 $692: +$249M 🧲 biggest magnet $693: +$147M 🧲 $695: +$103M 🧲 $700: +$169M 🧲 Path to $700 is paved with magnets. ACCELERATORS FADED $680: -$92M (was -$226M) $675: -$151M (was -$267M) $670: -$118M (was -$178M) Downside trapdoors closing. NTM POSITIONING Call OI: +156K (+6.9%) Put OI: -306K" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019886806767137194) 2026-02-06T21:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$TXN ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL: 4/6 ⚠ NEUTRAL TXN 10-K just dropped. Our team analyzed the data. The semiconductor cycle is recovering but is it back 📈 Revenue: $17.68B (+13% YoY) 📈 Operating Income: $6.02B (+10% YoY) 📉 vs [----] Peak: Still down 12% The good news: Revenue inflected. Industrial and auto demand returning. The subtle warning signs: DSO lengthened from [--] [--] days over [--] years Bad debt reserves doubled (0.47% 1.12%) Valuation allowance increased $18M Customers are taking longer to pay. That's not a crisis but it's worth watching. TXN is the bellwether for industrial" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019930220199920059) 2026-02-07T00:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The rotation into software is real. But not all software is created equal. Weve been running our Earnings Quality Signal on key $IGV names: $NOW (ServiceNow) Call: [---] AI mentions. Agentic platform. Beat on everything. Filing: VA +12% YoY. $723M tax benefit inflated earnings. Signal: MIXED ⚠ $IBM Software segment +12% YoY. Margins expanding. Free cash flow growing. Confluent acquisition positions them for AI/data streaming. Signal: BULLISH ✅ $LRCX (Lam Research) Beat [--] straight quarters. But 50% China exposure is a headwind. Signal: WATCH 👀 The money is flooding in. The question is: which" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020193405318443312) 2026-02-07T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The gamma data supports this. Tuesday: MMs long 70M shares. Selling every rally. Friday: MMs short 31M shares. Buying every dip. Thats a 100M share positioning flip in [--] days. When market makers flip from long to short delta they mechanically buy dips to stay hedged. Add short sellers covering on top of that and you get the snapback we just saw. The largest short selling in history becomes fuel for the squeeze when positioning reverses. This is why we track flow not headlines. $SPY https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020230938651705542 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020230938651705542" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020230938651705542) 2026-02-07T20:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "The flow supports this. Tuesday: Tariff panic. MMs long 70M shares selling every bounce. Friday: MMs short 31M shares buying every dip. Magnets stacked to $700. Thats a 100M share positioning flip in [--] days. Four selloffs in three months. Four recoveries. The pattern is clear - dips are getting bought. Structure says the bid is supported. $692 is the next magnet. Break that and $700 is in play. We dont predict price targets. We track flow. Right now flow says higher. $SPY $QQQ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020234485837533438 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020234485837533438" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020234485837533438) 2026-02-07T20:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "We are going to continue to push back on these posts. The AI replaces everyone thesis assumes adoption happens overnight. It doesnt. 2000: The internet will eliminate all retail jobs. 2010: Mobile apps will eliminate all service jobs. 2020: Automation will eliminate all warehouse jobs. Reality: Jobs shifted. New ones emerged. Unemployment didnt spike to 30%. AI is a productivity tool not a mass layoff event. Companies are using it to do more with the same headcount not fire half their workforce. Goldman just embedded Anthropic engineers for [--] months. Their own statement: efficiency gains" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020246132354646504) 2026-02-07T21:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "The numbers say otherwise. $GOOGL just guided $175-185B in CapEx AND still generated $73B in FCF last year. $META has $42B cash on hand. $AAPL just authorized another $110B buyback. These companies arent choosing between AI spend and buybacks. Theyre doing both. The CapEx crowds out buybacks thesis assumes theyre cash constrained. Theyre not. Theyre printing money. Cloud revenue is already showing returns: GOOGL Cloud +48% YoY Azure +31% AWS +19%. AI spend isnt a black hole. Its already flowing to the bottom line. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020250479410786325" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020250479410786325) 2026-02-07T21:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Same story different framing. $33B sounds massive until you do the math. SPY alone trades $30B+ daily. The entire US equity market trades $500B+ daily. $33B spread across a week is noise not a crash. Goldman isnt warning you out of kindness. Theyre positioning. When banks tell retail to expect selling ask whos on the other side of that trade. $SPY $QQQ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020569228156215400 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020569228156215400" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020569228156215400) 2026-02-08T18:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "The fear engagement bait is real on this platform. $33B sounds massive until you do the math. SPY alone trades $30B+ daily. The entire US equity market trades $500B+ daily. $33B spread across a week is noise not a crash. Goldman isnt warning you out of kindness. Theyre positioning. When banks tell retail to expect selling ask whos on the other side of that trade. $SPY $QQQ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020571232832197045 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020571232832197045" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020571232832197045) 2026-02-08T18:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Same story different framing. $33B sounds massive until you do the math. SPY alone trades $30B+ daily. The entire US equity market trades $500B+ daily. $33B spread across a week is noise not a crash. Goldman isnt warning you out of kindness. Theyre positioning. When banks tell retail to expect selling ask whos on the other side of that trade. $SPY $QQQ $VIX https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020612533217034298 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020612533217034298" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020612533217034298) 2026-02-08T21:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$600B in US stocks The entire BOJ balance sheet holds $0 in US equities. They own JGBs and domestic ETFs. Japanese pension funds (GPIF) hold $250B in foreign equities total - not all US not all stocks. For Japan to sell $600B in US stocks they'd have to sell assets they don't own. This is rage bait not analysis. Turn off the notifications. Check the actual data. $SPY $QQQ $VIX https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020621379012341800 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020621379012341800" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020621379012341800) 2026-02-08T22:10Z [---] followers, 24.1K engagements "$AVGO MORNING - Momentum Continues Current: $342.12 (+3.0% on the day) THE MOVE Friday close: $332.20 Monday morning: Ripping to $342+ Up 10% from Thursday's tariff lows at $311. FLOW STATUS: 🟡 BUILDING Order flow buy%: 57.9% Avg buy size: [--] vs Avg sell size: [--] Buyers in control. DARK POOL ACTIVITY Block trades: [--] ($1M+ each) Support below: $175.8M Overhead resistance: $2.4M Ratio: 73x more support than resistance. Institutions aren't selling this move. KEY LEVELS Support: $340 $339 $336 $333 Resistance: $343 (minimal - only $2.4M) THE PICTURE Google CapEx catalyst confirmed. Hyperscaler" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020891948890960036) 2026-02-09T16:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "🚨 ALPHATICA BUY SIGNAL: $MSFT THE SETUP: Microsoft down from $470 highs. Touched $400.87 intraday our signal triggered. WHY: Tech rotation fears. DeepSeek noise. Broader market weakness. WHAT THEY'RE MISSING: Azure growing 30%+. AI infrastructure leader. $130B cash on balance sheet. This is a gift. THE SIGNAL: Our quantitative model triggered a buy today. Oversold conditions on a quality name. BACKTEST (10 years): [--] trades 63.6% win rate Profit Factor: [----] 5/6 statistical tests passed LEVELS: Entry: $400.87 Target: $459.81 Stop: $385.09 Risk/Reward: 3.7:1. We buy fear. We sell greed." [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020905310437683214) 2026-02-09T16:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The market just answered @michaeljburry $100B+ in orders for a $15B offering. 7x oversubscribed. That's not investors betting on the next Motorola. That's institutions fighting to lock in Alphabet debt for [---] years. Bond buyers are the skeptics of the financial world. They get paid back or they don't. No upside only downside. When bond buyers are lining up 7x deep for century bonds they're not seeing a company about to get disrupted. They're seeing a cash machine that will outlive most of us. Burry's pattern recognition is usually sharp. But the bond market is voting with real money. And" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020919875376435408) 2026-02-09T17:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The flow agrees. Today: MMs short 53M shares. Call Vol/OI at 64% - new call positions opening aggressively. Magnets stacked from $694 to $700. $695: +$314M 🧲 biggest magnet sitting right here $696: +$230M 🧲 $697: +$159M 🧲 $700: +$248M 🧲 Four selloffs in three months. Four recoveries. The pattern is clear. Structure supports higher. We're at $695 - the magnet zone. $700 is 0.8% away. We don't predict. We track flow. Flow says bid is supported. $SPY $QQQ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020936006229426201 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020936006229426201" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020936006229426201) 2026-02-09T19:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$UPWK - Our Signal Called It Before earnings: Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal flagged BEARISH After earnings: Down 18% after hours. We flag. We don't trade. But the signal works. $SPY $QQQ $UPWK $UPWK - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tonight post-market. Street estimate: $0.31 Current: $19.36 VOLATILITY METRICS Expected Move: 16.69% ($3.23) Options pricing a big move tonight. IV SPREAD: BEARISH Call IV: 130.6% Put IV: 136.4% Spread: -5.77% Puts $UPWK - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tonight post-market. Street estimate: $0.31 Current: $19.36 VOLATILITY" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020967456832094488) 2026-02-09T21:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Flow confirms. $SPY (693.95) MMs short 38M shares. Magnets stacked $695-$700. $695: +$70M 🧲 $696: +$88M 🧲 $697: +$75M 🧲 $700: +$193M 🧲 biggest [----] SPX = $700 SPY. Path is clear. $META (676.30) MMs short 30M shares. Call-heavy flow (P/C ratio 0.62). $680: +$6.6M 🧲 $690: +$5.0M 🧲 $700: +$19.0M 🧲 massive magnet [---] break 690/700 magnets pull price higher. Flow agrees with your levels. $QQQ (614.30) This one's different. MMs long 9M shares. Net sellers on rallies. $618: +$12.6M 🧲 $620: -$1.8M 🚀 $625: +$33.2M 🧲 $630: +$58.5M 🧲 biggest [---] is the key. Below that accelerators down to" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021040006324682927) 2026-02-10T01:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$ALAB - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: NEUTRAL Reporting today post-market. Street estimate: $0.30 Current: $182.54 VOLATILITY METRICS Expected Move: 10.78% ($19.67) ATM IV: 180.8% 1-Week Realized Vol: 177.2% EVRP: +3.7% (NEUTRAL) Options pricing is in line with recent volatility. No disconnect - this stock is already trading like earnings every day. IV SPREAD: NEUTRAL Call IV: 181.9% Put IV: 180.3% Spread: +1.60%. Balanced positioning. No directional bias from options flow. HISTORICAL MOVES (Last [--] Quarters)Q3 2025: 1.47% Q2 2025: 28.66% Q1 2025: 0.38% Q4 2024: 10.89% Avg 3-Year PMIE:" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021324565625151931) 2026-02-10T20:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "🚨 $MOH 10-K JUST DROPPED Our team ran the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal on Molina Healthcare's fresh filing. The Verdict: 2/6 BEARISH ❌ THE SETUP: Revenue grew 12% to $45.4B. Sounds healthy right THE PROBLEM: Net income collapsed 60% EPS cratered from $20.42 $8.92 Operating margin compressed [---] bps Operating cash flow swung from +$640M to -$535M Revenue up. Cash flow negative. That's not growth that's a margin squeeze. THE SIGNAL: Our quantitative framework flagged [--] of [--] categories bearish. The tax efficiency signal held steady but profitability capital position and balance sheet" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021374882206888340) 2026-02-11T00:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Flow confirms. Levels are right. $SPY (692.12) MMs short 14M shares - lightest in days. Covered hard today. $693: +$11M 🧲 right above $696-$700: Magnets stacked but faded from this morning $690: -$83M 🚀 first accelerator below Structure neutral. Need to reclaim $693 to rebuild momentum to $700. $TSLA (425.90) This is the cleanest chart of the three. MMs short 72M shares - massive. They buy every dip. $420-$450: Wall of magnets $425: +$9.3M 🧲 $430: +$11.3M 🧲 $435: +$13.6M 🧲 $440: +$16.7M 🧲 $450: +$19.7M 🧲 Accelerators don't start until $410. Your [---] support level checks out. 440-450" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021401352824352936) 2026-02-11T01:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$TTD Q4 FY2025 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $0.57 Street Revenue: $841M ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $0.58 Revenue: $845M INITIAL STOCK REACTION: UP OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ 89% lifetime beat rate. 7-quarter streak. Stock down 77% expectations are in the basement. Street is pricing at management's guidance floor. THE PATTERN: Beat Rate: 89.2% (33 of [--] quarters) Last Quarter: BEAT +2.3% Beat Streak: [--] quarters Recent History: Q3 2025: BEAT +2.3% ($0.45 vs $0.44) Q2 2025: MEET ($0.41 vs $0.41) Q1 2025: BEAT +32% ($0.33 vs $0.25) Q4 2024: BEAT +3.6% ($0.59 vs $0.57)" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021685453813166337) 2026-02-11T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$APP Q4 [----] RESULTS THE RECEIPTS WE SAID: BEAT ✅ RESULT: BEAT ✅ ALPHATICA vs STREET: Revenue: Alphatica: $1.63B Street: $1.61B Actual: $1.658B Alphatica Error: 1.7% Street Error: 2.9% We beat the Street on revenue. EPS: Alphatica: $2.98 Actual: $3.24 Our model underestimated (8% low) THE RESULTS: Revenue: $1.658B (+66% YoY) = BEAT Adjusted EBITDA: $1.399B (84% margin) Net Income: $1.102B (+84% YoY) Free Cash Flow: $1.31B Stock: DOWN 4.42% RISK SIGNAL CALLED THE DIRECTION: We said: BEARISH SKEW (puts at premium) Result: DOWN 4.4% ✅ Q1 GUIDANCE: Revenue: $1.745B-$1.775B Adjusted EBITDA:" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021700481475879203) 2026-02-11T21:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This is not how any of this works. The Bank of Japan doesn't "dump" bonds at scheduled times like a crypto rug pull. What happens at 6:50 PM ET is the release of Japan's balance of payments data - a backward-looking report on capital flows that already happened. The $713 billion figure floating around That's likely referencing net outflows over an extended period not a single transaction. And most Japanese holdings of US Treasuries are held by private institutions and the GPIF pension fund not the BOJ itself. What the BOJ actually holds: Japanese Government Bonds and domestic ETFs. Their" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2022018901308322122) 2026-02-12T18:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$SPY INTO THE CLOSE - Positioned for Pain Current: $682.99 [--] minutes left. Structure is as bearish as it gets. DELTA - MMs STILL LONG MMs long 46M shares. They're selling rallies not buying dips. GAMMA - $685 IS NOW A WALL $685: -$356M 🚀 exploded from -$222M this morning $680: -$171M 🚀 $675: -$247M 🚀 $670: -$157M 🚀 $660: -$101M 🚀 $650: -$110M 🚀 Accelerators everywhere. First magnet is $700 (+$84M) - 2.5% away. VOLUME TELLS THE STORY Call Vol/OI: 101% more call volume than total open interest Put Vol/OI: 55% NTM Put OI: +15.5% since open NTM Call OI: -6.5% since open Massive" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2022048506287206710) 2026-02-12T20:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Respect for Burry but this comparison has holes. Motorola in [----] was a hardware company betting on a single product cycle. When Nokia and then iPhone disrupted handsets they had nothing else. Alphabet in 2026: Search: 90% market share $175B/year YouTube: $60B annual revenue Cloud: +48% YoY fastest growing hyperscaler Android: 3B+ devices Waymo DeepMind Gemini Motorola had one moat. Alphabet has five. The 100-year bond isn't hubris. It's locking in cheap capital while they can. With $100B+ cash on hand they don't need the money. They're arbitraging rates. Is Alphabet vulnerable to disruption" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020899867485200539) 2026-02-09T16:37Z [---] followers, 17.7K engagements "$UPWK - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tonight post-market. Street estimate: $0.31 Current: $19.36 VOLATILITY METRICS Expected Move: 16.69% ($3.23) Options pricing a big move tonight. IV SPREAD: BEARISH Call IV: 130.6% Put IV: 136.4% Spread: -5.77% Puts trading at a premium. Hedging demand elevated. EVRP: HIGH RISK ATM IV: 133.5% 1-Week Realized Vol: 106.3% Premium: +27.2% Options pricing significantly more risk than recent price action suggests. HISTORICAL MOVES (Last [--] Quarters) Q4 2025: 2.25% Q3 2025: 1.40% Q2 2025: 13.64% Q1 2025: 18.02% Avg 3-Year PMIE: 11.79% THE" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020958635938210085) 2026-02-09T20:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$ON UPDATE- ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SCORE: 2/6 BEARISH $ON Semiconductor: The Real Story Behind the -92% Earnings Collapse 🔬 ON just filed their 10-K. The headline looks catastrophic: Net Income: $1.57B $121M (-92%) EPS: $3.63 $0.29 (-92%) But here's what actually happened: THE IMPAIRMENT BOMB Restructuring & impairments went from $134M to $667M. That's $533M in extra charges mostly fab/equipment writedowns as they rationalize capacity during the semi downcycle. WHAT IT WOULD HAVE LOOKED LIKE: Without the excess impairment: Operating Income: $617M (not $84M) Still down 65% but not 95% The" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020987031858364656) 2026-02-09T22:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SPY MORNING - Magnets Expanding Current: $695.42 (+0.2%) DELTA - MMs SHORT BIG Net Delta: MMs short 50M shares Friday close: 38M short. Now 50M. They're buying dips harder. Bid is supported. GAMMA - $700 MAGNET MASSIVE $695: +$46M 🧲 sitting here now $696: +$111M 🧲 $697: +$136M 🧲 $698: +$147M 🧲 $699: +$164M 🧲 $700: +$278M 🧲 biggest magnet Wall of magnets from here to $700. Each strike pulling price higher. ACCELERATORS FADING $690: -$125M 🚀 (was support now below) $685: -$187M 🚀 $680: -$94M 🚀 VOLUME Call Vol/OI: 21.0% Put Vol/OI: 9.6% Calls trading 2x the rate of puts. THE SETUP" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021245820461265028) 2026-02-10T15:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SPGI UPDATE - Thesis Playing Out Morning: $414.48 Now: $410.07 (-1.1%) WHAT WE SAID THIS MORNING "MMs long (selling rallies) accelerators stacked below put positioning heavy. Not a name I'd want to be long here without a catalyst. Structure says chop or lower." Price dropped 1.1% into the accelerator zone. STRUCTURE UPDATE -Delta: MMs still long 505K shares (was 698K). Covering some but still selling rallies. -Put Flow Accelerating: Put Vol/OI jumped from 26% 38%. Hedging continues. -NTM Put OI: Down 9% - some puts getting closed (profit taking on the move down). ACCELERATORS STILL IN" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021280713761234973) 2026-02-10T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$GILD - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tonight post-market. Street estimate: $1.83 Current: $149.41 VOLATILITY METRICS Expected Move: 4.68% ($6.99) Options pricing a modest move tonight. HIGH RISK ATM IV: 74.4% 1-Week Realized Vol: 27.6% Premium: +46.7% Options pricing nearly 3x the recent volatility. Market expects tonight to be different. IV SPREAD: NEUTRAL Call IV: 76.0% Put IV: 74.9% Spread: +1.07% Balanced positioning. No clear directional bias from options flow. HISTORICAL MOVES (Last [--] Quarters) Q4 2025: 1.50% Q3 2025: 0.05% Q2 2025: 0.00% Q1 2025: 1.27% Avg 3-Year" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021309692333470150) 2026-02-10T19:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$TMUS - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tomorrow pre-market. Street estimate: $2.06 Current: $198.57 VOLATILITY METRICS Expected Move: 5.65% ($11.21) ATM IV: 87.5% 1-Week Realized Vol: 24.4% EVRP: +63.1% (HIGH RISK) IV SPREAD: NEUTRAL Call IV: 86.4% Put IV: 88.2% Spread: -1.81% HISTORICAL MOVES (Last [--] Quarters) Q3 2025: 3.26% Q2 2025: 5.80% Q1 2025: 11.22% Q4 2024: 6.34% Avg 3-Year PMIE: 3.62% Options pricing 5.65% vs a 3.62% historical average - a 56% premium to history. Meanwhile TMUS has been trading calmly at just 24% realized vol. The Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021314152614989915) 2026-02-10T20:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HUM - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tomorrow pre-market. Street estimate: -$4.01 Current: $182.45 VOLATILITY METRICS Expected Move: 8.89% ($16.22) ATM IV: 137.7% 1-Week Realized Vol: 29.5% EVRP: +108.2% (HIGH RISK) Options pricing 4.7x the recent volatility. Significant risk premium embedded. IV SPREAD: BEARISH Call IV: 134.6% Put IV: 138.2% Spread: -3.62% Puts trading at a premium. Hedging demand visible. HISTORICAL MOVES (Last [--] Quarters) Q3 2025: 6.01% Q2 2025: 12.40% Q1 2025: 1.11% Q4 2024: 3.55% Avg 3-Year PMIE: 5.93% Options pricing 8.89% vs 5.93% historical - a 50%" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021315226025521449) 2026-02-10T20:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$TMUS - Signal Called It Before earnings: Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal flagged BEARISH After earnings: Down 4.32% pre-market. Expected Move: 5.65% Actual Move: -4.32% (within range) We said options were pricing a 56% premium to history while the stock traded calmly at 24% realized vol. Market knew something was coming. Two signals this morning. Two receipts. $HUM: Flagged BEARISH Down 6.51% $TMUS: Flagged BEARISH Down 4.32% We post every signal before the report. No hindsight. Just receipts. $TMUS - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tomorrow pre-market. Street estimate:" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021583585212355033) 2026-02-11T13:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "🟢 $MA 10-K JUST DROPPED Our team ran the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal on Mastercard's fresh filing. The Verdict: 5/6 BULLISH ✅ THE NUMBERS: Revenue: $32.8B (+16%) Net Income: $15.0B (+16%) Operating Income: $18.9B (+21%) Operating Cash Flow: $17.6B (+19%) Operating Margin: 58% THE SIGNAL: [--] of [--] categories bullish. Profitability operating trends earnings quality capital position and balance sheet all flashing green. One yellow flag: Valuation allowance increased 12%. Modest relative to their scale likely international tax positioning not earnings quality deterioration. THE INSIGHT:" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021631787676357074) 2026-02-11T17:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$MCD EARNINGS RISK SIGNAL REPORTS: Today Pre-Market Street EPS: $3.04 Expected Move: 2.27% ($7.34) ALPHATICA EARNINGS RISK SIGNAL: ATM IV: 49.6% 1-Week Realized Vol: 11.8% Alphatica Volatility Premium: +37.7% IV Spread: +2.22% (Calls at premium) Signal: HIGH RISK with BULLISH SKEW Options pricing 4x more volatility than recent action. Call buyers positioning for upside. CONTEXT: Last quarter: MISS -3.3% Avg 3-year move: 2.03% Last move: 0.83% Watch for: Options market expects a bigger move than recent history suggests. Bullish positioning despite last quarter's miss. $MCD" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021691374975037911) 2026-02-11T21:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$MCD- WE PREDICTED UP. AND THE STOCK IS UP $MCD Q4 [----] RESULTS THE RESULTS: GAAP EPS: $3.03 vs $3.04 est = MISS by $0.01 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.12 vs $3.04 est = BEAT +2.6% Revenue: $7.01B (+10% YoY) Stock: UP 1.93% ✅ RISK SIGNAL CALLED IT: We said: BULLISH SKEW (calls at premium IV spread +2.22%) Result: Stock UP nearly 2% The options market was right. Despite the technical GAAP miss buyers were positioned correctly. WHY THE STOCK IS UP: Global comp sales +5.7% (crushed expectations) U.S. comp sales +6.8% (massive turnaround from -1.4% last year) Systemwide sales +11% Dividend raised 5%" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021692171598930215) 2026-02-11T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$CSCO Q2 FY2026 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $1.02 (Non-GAAP) Street Revenue: $15.12B Guidance: EPS $1.01-$1.03 Revenue $15.0B-$15.2B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $1.03 Revenue: $15.15B INITIAL STOCK REACTION: DOWN OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ 8-quarter beat streak. Street is dead-center of guidance. This company doesn't miss. THE PATTERN: Beat Streak: [--] Quarters Lifetime Beat Rate: 86.5% (103 of [---] quarters) Recent 8Q: 100% beat rate Avg Surprise: +2.7% Recent History: Q1 FY26: BEAT +2.0% ($1.00 vs $0.98) Q4 FY25: BEAT +1.0% ($0.99 vs $0.98) Q3 FY25: BEAT +4.3% ($0.96" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021696575701950577) 2026-02-11T21:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$CSCO Q2 FY2026 RESULTS THE RECEIPTS WE SAID: BEAT ✅ RESULT: BEAT ✅ ALPHATICA vs STREET: EPS: Alphatica: $1.03 Street: $1.02 Actual: $1.04 Alphatica Error: 0.96% Street Error: 1.92% Revenue: Alphatica: $15.15B Street: $15.12B Actual: $15.3B Alphatica Error: 0.98% Street Error: 1.18% We beat the Street on both metrics. THE RESULTS: Non-GAAP EPS: $1.04 vs $1.02 est = BEAT +2% Revenue: $15.3B (RECORD) = BEAT +1.2% Networking: +21% YoY AI Infrastructure orders: $2.1B GUIDANCE RAISED: FY26 Revenue: $61.2B-$61.7B (up from $60.2B-$61.0B) Stock: DOWN 4.2% WHY DOWN ON A BEAT Valuation. We flagged it" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021697785414799434) 2026-02-11T21:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Heavy institutional footprints in $AVGO today 🐳 🔥 7.71M shares moved quietly off-exchange That's 34.5% of total volume $2.63B in notional value [---] massive block prints ( $1M each) Top level: $343 with $192.27M across [--] prints Key reminder: Dark pools are directionless we can't tell if this is aggressive buying selling or hedging. Are institutions loading up ahead of something big or taking profits Whats your read $AVGO #darkpool $SPY $QQQ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021740884627186094 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021740884627186094" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021740884627186094) 2026-02-12T00:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "We scanned 43500+ whale trades across $MSFT $ORCL $CRM $NOW $IGV and $DUOL over the last [--] days. Every single ticker deteriorated. 90-day view: Net +$6.5B institutional buying at 51% buy flow 60-day view: Net +$5.9B at 52% 30-day view: Net $13.6B at 42% But is the selling over Here's the bull vs bear case. THE BEAR CASE: The 30-day window is the leading edge not the climax. Software multiples are compressing rates staying higher AI capex ROI disappointing guidance cuts incoming. The 90-day accumulation was smart money being wrong early. Now they're correcting. MSFT flipped from +$10.5B net" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021777741159211357) 2026-02-12T02:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SPY MORNING - Selling Into CPI Current: $689.26 (-0.5% from yesterday's close) CPI tomorrow. Market is de-risking. DELTA - MMs NEARLY FLAT Net Delta: MMs short just 1M shares Yesterday: Short 11-14M shares Positioning is the lightest we've seen. Neither side committed. GAMMA - ACCELERATOR ZONE We're sitting in negative gamma territory. Everything below $694 is accelerators: $690: -$186M 🚀 right here $689: -$143M 🚀 $688: -$65M 🚀 $687: -$53M 🚀 $686: -$69M 🚀 $685: -$222M 🚀 $680: -$124M 🚀 $675: -$191M 🚀 MAGNETS START AT $694 $694: +$31M 🧲 $695: +$41M 🧲 $696: +$90M 🧲 $697: +$66M 🧲" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021978210552954957) 2026-02-12T16:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Context: What's $170/oz on a $5000 asset That's a 3.5% move. In [--] minutes yes. But gold is up 40%+ in the last year. This is volatility not a reversal. What actually matters: Central banks still accumulating Dollar strength/weakness trajectory Geopolitical hedging demand Real rates at 1.8% - positive but moderate by historical standards A 3.5% pullback after a historic run isn't "breaking" - it's normal price discovery. Gold crossed $5000 for the first time ever recently. It pulled back. That's what assets do at round numbers. Wake me up if it loses $4500. That's structure. This is noise." [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021990527571308641) 2026-02-12T16:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Interesting timing. Last night we showed $13.6B in net institutional selling across software over [--] days while the 90-day and 60-day windows were still net positive. Something changed in the last [--] days. Here's what else changed: over that same window this platform discovered Claude. We have been collecting the posts specific to Go back [--] days on X and Claude barely registered. Scroll through the last [--] days and it's everywhere threads comparing it to GPT developers sharing workflows entire communities forming around it. That's not a coincidence. Institutions move before narratives go" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021994804477837728) 2026-02-12T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "🟢 $HUBB 10-K JUST DROPPED Our team ran the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal on Hubbell's fresh filing. The Verdict: 6/6 BULLISH ✅ Clean sweep. Every category green. Valuation allowance dropped 42% ($34M $20M). Management released $14M of reserves they're telling you they expect to realize more of their deferred tax assets. This only happens when they're confident about future profitability. THE NUMBERS: Revenue: $5.84B (+4%) Operating Income: $1.21B (+11%) Net Income: $892M (+14%) EPS: $16.54 (+15%) Operating Cash Flow: $1.03B (+4%) THE INSIGHT: Operating income grew 11% on just 4% revenue" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2022029322068824065) 2026-02-12T19:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The crickets are always loudest before they scramble. Burry dropped [-----] words on $PLTR this morning - the $4B in losses the $1.1B Karp options grant the DPO structure. $SPY down 1% into CPI. The structure we flagged this morning - MMs flipped long 46M shares accelerators stacked to $650 2.6:1 put skew into tomorrow's print. Financial media doesn't lead. It follows. And right now it's not even doing that. The man who called [----] is posting receipts in real time. Crickets. 🤣 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022067893341454622 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022067893341454622" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2022067893341454622) 2026-02-12T21:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "⚠ $COIN 10-K JUST DROPPED Our team ran the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal on Coinbase's fresh filing. The Verdict: 3/6 NEUTRAL ⚠ Mixed signals. Here's what the numbers show: THE CRYPTO SWING: FY2024: +$687M gain on crypto investments FY2025: -$529M loss on crypto investments That's a $1.2B swing below the line. THE NUMBERS: Revenue: $7.18B (+9%) ✅ Operating Income: $1.44B (-38%) ❌ Net Income: $1.26B (-51%) ❌ Operating Cash Flow: $2.43B (-22%) ❌ Valuation Allowance: $135M (+9%) ✅ THE OPERATING PROBLEM: OpEx surged 35% while revenue grew 9%. S&M up 62% ($654M $1059M) G&A up 25% ($1.3B $1.6B)" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2022071173505335746) 2026-02-12T22:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "🧵 ALPHATICA PREDICTION TRACKER (PINNED) We post predictions BEFORE earnings. We post receipts AFTER. January [----] Scorecard: $NFLX Q4: 98.2% EPS accuracy $WFC Q4: 1.1% error vs Street 5.7% $AAPL Q1: 3.2% error vs Street 6.0% $GE Q4: Within $0.02 called sell-off $RTX Q4: Off by one penny $MA Q4: Called +12.3% beat $V Q4: Beat Street both metrics $CAT Q4: Called +11.2% beat [--] for [--] on direction. Beat Street accuracy on [--] of [--]. Institutional-quality quantitative insights. Robust trading strategies for every trader. Sign up for weekly predictions signals & strategies ALPHATICA brought to you by" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2017773956476830064) 2026-02-01T01:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$AXP Update ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SCORE: BULLISH ✅ 6/6 Wall Street just cut price targets on American Express. Our team went through the 10-K and the data today. We disagree. The analyst concerns: Regulatory risk (10% rate cap) Rising customer engagement costs Margin pressure What the data shows: ✅ Loan provisions only +1.4% YoY ✅ Tax efficiency improving (+25% in credits) ✅ Restructuring reserves declining ✅ VA/DTA ratio stable at 13% ✅ Credit quality "best in class" This is the difference between headline risk and fundamental health. Wall Street prices in fear. Record $72B revenue." [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2019941260711100730) 2026-02-07T01:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SPY MORNING - Structure Holds Current: $693.65 (+0.4%) DELTA - MMs STILL SHORT Net Delta: MMs short 32M shares They buy dips to stay hedged. Bid remains supported. GAMMA - MAGNETS ABOVE ACCELERATORS BELOW $694: +$93M 🧲 $695: +$154M 🧲 $696: +$118M 🧲 $697: +$89M 🧲 $700: +$192M 🧲 biggest magnet Path to $700 remains clear. ACCELERATORS BELOW $685: -$153M 🚀 $680: -$97M 🚀 $675: -$143M 🚀 $670: -$122M 🚀 CALL FLOW PICKING UP Call Vol/OI: 25.3% vs Put Vol/OI: 9.4% Calls trading nearly 3x the rate of puts this morning. NTM Call Vol: 1.04M vs NTM Put Vol: 780K THE SETUP Friday: MMs flipped" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2020886842846134428) 2026-02-09T15:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "CTAs selling into buyback windows. Goldman just told you the setup: Sellers: CTAs dumping $800M to $11B mechanically regardless of fundamentals. Buyers: 65% of companies in open buyback windows (75% by Friday). Activity up 40% week-over-week. Forced systematic selling meeting corporate bid. This is why selloffs keep getting bought. Four dips in three months. Four recoveries. CTAs follow rules. Corporates follow price. When your stock gets cheaper you buy more of it. Thats not sentiment. Thats capital allocation. Flow says bid is supported. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021213454103634321" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021213454103634321) 2026-02-10T13:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Flow says up. $SPY: MMs short 34M shares. They buy dips to hedge. Magnets stacked $696-$700. $QQQ: [---] is the inflection. Above it magnets pull to $625-$630. The compression is real. But when it breaks follow the positioning: MMs short = buy dips Magnets above = price gets pulled higher CTAs selling into corporate buyback windows Four selloffs in three months. Four recoveries. Every dip gets bought. Compression resolves in the direction of flow. Flow says bid is supported. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021282237027672237 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021282237027672237" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021282237027672237) 2026-02-10T17:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$GILD EARNINGS: RISK SIGNAL NAILED IT RESULT: Stock DOWN 8%+ WHAT WE SAID: Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Expected Move: 4.68% Historical Avg Move: Under 1% "GILD typically doesn't move much on earnings. Last [--] quarters averaged under 1%. Something has to give. Either options are overpriced or tonight breaks the pattern." WHAT HAPPENED: Down 8%+ Something gave. The pattern broke. THE NUMBERS: Expected Move: 4.68% Actual Move: 8%+ Historical Avg: 1% Move was nearly 2x the expected. 8x the historical average. THE SIGNAL WORKED: Called BEARISH Down 8% ✅ Called HIGH RISK Massive move ✅" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021330781524852765) 2026-02-10T21:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HUM - Signal Called It Before earnings: Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal flagged BEARISH After earnings: Down 6.51% pre-market. Expected Move: 8.89% Actual Move: -6.51% (within range) Both signals aligned: ✓ HIGH RISK EVRP ✓ BEARISH IV Spread We said the market is bracing for impact. Market was right. We flag. We dont trade. But the signal works. $HUM - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tomorrow pre-market. Street estimate: -$4.01 Current: $182.45 VOLATILITY METRICS Expected Move: 8.89% ($16.22) ATM IV: 137.7% 1-Week Realized Vol: 29.5% EVRP: +108.2% (HIGH RISK) Options pricing" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021579979675353556) 2026-02-11T13:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "🟢 $SYK 10-K JUST DROPPED Our team ran the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal on Stryker's fresh filing. The Verdict: 6/6 BULLISH ✅ Clean sweep. Every category green. THE NUMBERS: Revenue: $25.1B (+11%) Operating Income: $4.9B (+33%) Net Income: $3.2B (+8%) Operating Cash Flow: $5.0B (+19%) Operating Margin: 19.5% (+320 bps) THE DATA: Management is telling you they expect to realize more of their deferred tax assets. THE INSIGHT: When the tax footnote and the impairment line both improve materially in the same year the filings are telling you something the headline isn't." [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021633690879594765) 2026-02-11T17:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Two stories in one report. The bad: [----] was revised down hard. [------] jobs initially reported [------] after benchmark revisions. CNBC That's a 70% haircut. Last year was already the weakest year of employment gains outside of a recession since [----] but the gains now average just [-----] per month CNN after revisions. The good: January showed a strong rebound with payrolls beating forecasts CNN - [------] vs [-----] expected. Unemployment dropped to 4.3%. Here's what matters: The [----] weakness wasn't hidden. In September the preliminary revision inferred that the US economy likely added about 911000" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021646481355047290) 2026-02-11T18:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The structure has been public since October. Meta keeps 20% equity Blue Owl owns 80% $27B in debt held by PIMCO and BlackRock through an SPV. Short-term lease renewals keep it off the balance sheet. WSJ's Jonathan Weil - the reporter who first challenged Enron's accounting - has been skeptical since November calling the treatment "too good to be true." Now EY is flagging it. When the auditor who signs off on the books raises concerns about the same structure that the reporter who broke Enron is questioning. that's worth watching. The $27B is real. The question is whether the accounting" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021662086170894737) 2026-02-11T19:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$APP Q4 FY2025 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $2.94 Street Revenue: $1.61B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $2.98 Revenue: $1.63B INITIAL STOCK REACTION: DOWN OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ 5-quarter beat streak with explosive growth. Quality signal at 5/6 BULLISH. But Q4 is historically their worst quarter and options are pricing bearish skew. THE PATTERN: Beat Rate: 75% (6 of [--] quarters) Last Quarter: BEAT +0.8% Beat Streak: [--] quarters Recent History: Q3 2025: BEAT +0.8% ($2.55 vs $2.53) Q2 2025: BEAT +7.3% ($2.49 vs $2.32) Q1 2025: BEAT +16.0% ($1.67 vs $1.44) Q4 2024: BEAT" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021678951190437924) 2026-02-11T20:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$APP - The Signal Saw It Coming We called: BEAT ✓ Result: Beat their 5th straight quarter Stock reaction: Down 14% But we also flagged: IV Spread: -3.6% (puts at premium) Signal: HIGH RISK with BEARISH SKEW Options market was positioned for downside even on a beat. Thats what bearish skew means. Two signals. Both right. 1.Earnings prediction: BEAT ✓ 2.Risk signal: Bearish skew ✓ The number wasnt the story. The positioning was. $APP Q4 FY2025 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $2.94 Street Revenue: $1.61B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $2.98 Revenue: $1.63B INITIAL" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021959734790676601) 2026-02-12T14:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SYK 6/6 BULLISH. Up 4% since we posted. Our data told the story before the price did. 🟢 $SYK 10-K JUST DROPPED Our team ran the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal on Stryker's fresh filing. The Verdict: 6/6 BULLISH ✅ Clean sweep. Every category green. THE NUMBERS: Revenue: $25.1B (+11%) Operating Income: $4.9B (+33%) Net Income: $3.2B (+8%) Operating Cash https://t.co/S7hyX6slWE 🟢 $SYK 10-K JUST DROPPED Our team ran the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal on Stryker's fresh filing. The Verdict: 6/6 BULLISH ✅ Clean sweep. Every category green. THE NUMBERS: Revenue: $25.1B (+11%) Operating" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021975568074600472) 2026-02-12T15:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$SPY MIDDAY - Accelerators Triggered Current: $684.50 (-0.7% from open) Broke $689. Now in the accelerator zone. DELTA - MMs FLIPPED LONG Morning: MMs short 1M shares (nearly flat) Now: MMs LONG 47M shares Massive shift. MMs are now selling rallies not buying dips. GAMMA - SITTING IN ACCELERATORS $685: -$237M 🚀 just above us $680: -$162M 🚀 $675: -$231M 🚀 $670: -$148M 🚀 $665: -$81M 🚀 $660: -$98M 🚀 $650: -$110M 🚀 Accelerators stack all the way down. No magnets until $700 (+$88M) which is now 2.3% away. FLOW CONFIRMS NTM Call OI: -8.6% NTM Put OI: +3.0% Put volume outpacing calls. Hedging" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2021992599897452718) 2026-02-12T16:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SPY AFTERNOON - Accelerators in Control Current: $683.88 (-0.8% from open) Selling accelerating into the close. CPI positioning in full effect. DELTA - MMs MASSIVELY LONG Morning: MMs short 1M shares (nearly flat) Now: MMs LONG 64M shares This is the biggest shift we've seen. MMs are not supporting this market - they're selling into every bounce. GAMMA - ACCELERATOR WALL BELOW $685: -$235M 🚀 just above us $680: -$181M 🚀 $675: -$244M 🚀 biggest accelerator $670: -$160M 🚀 $665: -$87M 🚀 $660: -$107M 🚀 $650: -$117M 🚀 No magnets until $700 (+$77M) - now 2.4% away and fading. FLOW CONFIRMS" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2022019483179585900) 2026-02-12T18:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Flow confirms. $685: -$235M accelerator $680: -$181M accelerator $675: -$244M biggest on the board You're right about the $685 retest setup. If it rejects there the accelerator stack below is brutal. What's changed since this morning: MMs flipped from short 1M shares to LONG 64M shares. They're not buying dips anymore - they're selling rallies. First magnet doesn't show up until $700 (+$77M) and that's fading. Tomorrow's CPI expiration tells the story: 827K put OI vs 315K call OI. Market is hedged for hot. $685 rejection = accelerators take over. $675 break = it gets ugly fast. $SPY" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2022021620257222917) 2026-02-12T18:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$AMAT Q1 FY2026 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $2.21 Street Revenue: $6.88B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $2.24 Revenue: $6.92B INTITAL STOCK REACTION: DOWN OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ [--] straight beats. 100% beat rate last [--] quarters. The streak is remarkable - but everything else flashes caution. THE PATTERN: Beat Rate: 100% (8 of [--] quarters) Last Quarter: BEAT +2.4% Beat Streak: [--] quarters Recent History: Q4 2025: BEAT +2.4% ($2.17 vs $2.12) Q3 2025: BEAT +5.1% ($2.48 vs $2.36) Q2 2025: BEAT +3.5% ($2.39 vs $2.31) Q1 2025: BEAT +3.5% ($2.38 vs $2.30) Avg Surprise:" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2022037799117979838) 2026-02-12T19:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$ANET reports Q4 [----] tonight after the bell. THE SETUP: Street expects $0.76 EPS $2.39B revenue Management guided $2.30B-$2.40B Street sitting at TOP of guidance range THE STREAK: [--] consecutive quarters of beats That's EVERY quarter since their [----] IPO 100% beat rate. Zero misses. THE PATTERN: Recent surprises: +5.6% +12.3% +10.2% +14.0% Avg surprise last 4Q: +10.5% If history holds: $0.84 actual vs $0.76 street OUR ESTIMATES: EPS: $0.78 (vs $0.76 street) Revenue: $2.42B (vs $2.39B street) INITIAL STOCK REACTION: DOWN Call: BEAT ✅ ALPHATICA EARNINGS RISK SIGNAL: Expected Move: 10.1%" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2022043655322706401) 2026-02-12T20:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$ANET Q4 2025: THE RECEIPTS 🧾 THE CALL: BEAT ✅ THE STREAK: [--] QUARTERS AND COUNTING WHAT WE SAID: EPS: $0.78 Revenue: $2.42B WHAT THEY REPORTED: EPS: $0.82 (+7.9% surprise) Revenue: $2.488B (+4.1% surprise) THE SCORECARD: Estimate Actual Error Street EPS: $0.76 $0.82 7.3% ALPHATICA: $0.78 $0.82 4.9% ✅ Street Rev: $2.39B $2.49B 3.9% ALPHATICA: $2.42B $2.49B 2.7% ✅ We beat Street on BOTH metrics. THE HEADLINES: Revenue +29% YoY First quarter EVER over $1B net income FY2025: $9B revenue (+29%) Q1 guidance: $2.6B (street was at $2.47B) RISK SIGNAL CHECK: We said: BEARISH SKEW (puts at premium)" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2022058113822527973) 2026-02-12T21:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "🟢 $AMAT EARNINGS JUST DROPPED THE SETUP: Street EPS: $2.21 Street Revenue: $6.88B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $2.24 Revenue: $6.92B THE RESULT: EPS: $2.38 ✅ BEAT Revenue: $7.01B ✅ BEAT OUR CALL: BEAT INITIAL REACTION: DOWN: REACTION: UP The $253M legal settlement scared traders. Non-GAAP told the real story: 30% operating margin record DRAM revenue +91% free cash flow. Q2 guidance: $7.65B revenue $2.64 EPS. AI capex accelerating. Receipts posted http://alphatica.io $AMAT Q1 FY2026 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $2.21 Street Revenue: $6.88B ALPHATICA" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2022058646717575227) 2026-02-12T21:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Gold is down 3.5% and this person just invented a fictional Russia-US deal to explain it. What actually happened: Gold ran 40%+ in a year and hit $5000. It pulled back. Thats what assets do at round numbers. The de-dollarization narrative is over because of a deal that doesnt exist Theres no announcement. No confirmation. No source. Just a bullet point wish list dressed up as breaking news. Russia pivoting back to USD would require: Unwinding sanctions infrastructure SWIFT reconnection Congressional approval Actual diplomacy None of that happened in the last [--] minutes. Ive called every" [X Link](https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2022091117747941767) 2026-02-12T23:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@alphaticaio Alphatica
Alphatica posts on X about $spy, flow, mms, $qqq the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [------] #
- [--] Week [------] +44%
- [--] Month [-------] +563%
- [--] Months [-------] +256%
- [--] Year [-------] +17,365%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [---] -21%
- [--] Month [---] +202%
- [--] Months [---] +113%
- [--] Year [-----] +4,358%
Followers: [---] #
- [--] Week [---] +24%
- [--] Month [---] +59%
- [--] Months [---] +234%
- [--] Year [---] +908%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks 81.68% finance 68.7% technology brands 22.14% cryptocurrencies 6.11% countries 1.53% automotive brands 0.76% products 0.76% social networks 0.76% exchanges 0.76% financial services 0.76%
Social topic influence $spy #170, flow #2115, mms #85, $qqq #682, bearish #153, gamma #278, bullish #522, ai 9.16%, cash flow #283, $vix #165
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @theblacklinehq @thetranscript @alphaticahq @keemstar @macroedgeres @deebosa @grindeoptions @alc2022 @michaeljburry @fish38421672 @gentlemanchris8 @ass_sarcasm @cjpimentocheese @neosoireth @keokanden @hedgeblade @grok @traderpete911 @theaithingads @ali8787h
Top assets mentioned SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY) Vixco (VIX) Mastercard, Inc. (MA) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) General Dynamics Corporation (GD) Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) Now Coin (NOW) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Salesforce Inc (CRM) Coherent Inc (COHR) Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) Bitcoin (BTC) AppLovin Corporation (APP) Humana Inc (HUM) Atlassian Corporation PLC (TEAM) CatCoin (CAT) Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) Gartner Inc (IT) Hubbell, Inc. (HUBB) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Roblox Corp. (RBLX)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Burrys laying out the S-1 receipts. The numbers are accurate - $3.96B in cumulative losses $1.1B in options to Karp before going public Series K at $11.38/share. But the historical losses arent the real question anymore. PLTR turned profitable in [----]. Revenue is growing. Government contracts are sticky. The stock went from $11 to $120+. The bull case: AI is a tailwind. Palantir becomes the operating system for enterprises navigating the AI transition. Government moat is deep. Clearances and relationships dont get disrupted easily. The bear case nobodys saying out loud: AI might be an"
X Link 2026-02-12T13:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"How quickly sentiment shifts $NVDA losing favor highlights how fragile this market is. Without the MAG-7 and especially its leader its tough to see the S&P [---] turning things around anytime soon. 🤔 #NVDA $SPY $QQQ $VIX"
X Link 2025-04-19T21:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$TEAM going to crater. $SPY $QQQ $VIX"
X Link 2025-08-07T20:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$SPY positioning updateit's getting worse not better. MMs covered 4.5M shares of short delta since open leaving less squeeze fuel. Negative gamma deepened: $690: -$394M (was -$336M) $688: -$168M (was -$106M) $680: -$346M (was -$309M) NTM put OI jumped +230K contracts. Traders are adding protection not closing. The $695 magnet still exists but you have to climb through accelerators to get there. Path of least resistance: lower. $QQQ $VIX $SPY https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011468023941521723 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011468023941521723"
X Link 2026-01-14T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GM reports Tuesday pre-market. PERFECT 10-quarter beat streak. Management raised guidance. OUR ESTIMATE: EPS: $2.35 Revenue: $46.5B Direction: BEAT Initial Stock Reaction: Negative Here's what the data says 👇 🧵THE SETUP: Q3 crushed it: EPS: $2.80 (beat $2.33 est by 20%) U.S. share: 17% (highest Q3 since 2017) Incentives below industry avg for 10th straight quarter. Management RAISED full-year guidance. THE PATTERN: Last [--] quarters of surprises: Q2 '24: +11% Q3 '24: +24% Q4 '24: +4% Q1 '25: +5% Q2 '25: +1% Q3 '25: +20% Beat rate: 100% (10Q) 🔥 Avg surprise: 12% ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY"
X Link 2026-01-27T03:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$ELV Q4 [----] RESULTS Another health insurer same story. THE NUMBERS Q4 EPS: $3.33 (adjusted) Q4 Revenue: $49.3B (+10% YoY) Sounds fine until you see the margins. THE PROBLEM Benefit Expense Ratio: Q4 2024: 92.4% Q4 2025: 93.5% (+110 bps) FY 2025: 90.0% (+150 bps YoY) Medical costs eating the business. Sound familiar THE GUIDANCE (This is the headline) [----] Adjusted EPS: At least $25.50 [----] Actual: $30.29 That's a -16% YoY decline in earnings. [----] Revenue: "Low single digit DECLINE" First revenue decline in years. They're shedding 1.5-2M members. THE PATTERN $UNH yesterday: MLR 92.4%"
X Link 2026-01-28T12:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Wed be buyers on any dip in $GD. Earnings quality is pristine. $SPY $QQQ $GD OPTIONS FLOW - EXTREMELY BULLISH: [--] unusual positions tracked ALL [--] STILL OPEN INTO TOMORROW. Largest positions: $360 Call 03/20: $1.27M premium (Z-score 10.5) $360 Call 06/18: $1.02M premium (Z-score 9.4) $410 Call 01/15/27: $602K premium (LEAPS) $400 Call $GD OPTIONS FLOW - EXTREMELY BULLISH: [--] unusual positions tracked ALL [--] STILL OPEN INTO TOMORROW. Largest positions: $360 Call 03/20: $1.27M premium (Z-score 10.5) $360 Call 06/18: $1.02M premium (Z-score 9.4) $410 Call 01/15/27: $602K premium (LEAPS) $400 Call"
X Link 2026-01-28T13:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GD EARNINGS - Called it. Beat it. Selling off anyway. We predicted $4.05 EPS / $13.2B revenue. Street had $3.95 / $13.0B. Actual: $4.17 EPS / $14.4B revenue Beat both. Revenue crushed by $1.4B. THE NUMBERS: Backlog: $118B (+30% YoY) Book-to-bill: 1.6x Total contract value: $179B FY EPS: +13.4% Cash flow: 137% of earnings WHY THE SELLOFF: Aerospace margins compressed [---] bps (15.6% 12.7%). Gulfstream deliveries strong (158 vs [---] YoY) but margins pressured. OUR TAKE: Marine Systems +21.7% revenue margins expanding. Combat Systems backlog up 60% ($17B $27B). $179B in contract visibility. This"
X Link 2026-01-28T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GD OPTIONS FLOW - Post-Earnings Beat earnings. Sold off. Options market says buy the dip. Current: $349.67 SENTIMENT P/C Ratio: [----] bullish NTM P/C: [----] bullish Net Delta: MMs short 468K shares No panic. Low put hedging despite the selloff. GAMMA STRUCTURE Sitting on accelerator: $350: -$0.6M 🚀 (current level) $345: -$0.3M 🚀 Magnets above: $360: +$0.3M 🧲 $370: +$0.5M 🧲 $380: +$0.5M 🧲 TRANSLATION Options market isn't buying the selloff narrative. P/C [----] = no fear MMs short 468K shares = buy pressure on rallies Magnets at $370/$380 = where flow expects it to go OUR CALL We predicted"
X Link 2026-01-28T15:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$GD Recovering nicely. Hopefully you bought the dip $GD EARNINGS - Called it. Beat it. Selling off anyway. We predicted $4.05 EPS / $13.2B revenue. Street had $3.95 / $13.0B. Actual: $4.17 EPS / $14.4B revenue Beat both. Revenue crushed by $1.4B. THE NUMBERS: Backlog: $118B (+30% YoY) Book-to-bill: 1.6x Total https://t.co/Rbb08nipf9 $GD EARNINGS - Called it. Beat it. Selling off anyway. We predicted $4.05 EPS / $13.2B revenue. Street had $3.95 / $13.0B. Actual: $4.17 EPS / $14.4B revenue Beat both. Revenue crushed by $1.4B. THE NUMBERS: Backlog: $118B (+30% YoY) Book-to-bill: 1.6x Total"
X Link 2026-01-28T16:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$MA If you're short into this print we pray for you. It's a coin flip right It can go either way. 🤑 But in all seriousness we believe market participants overreacted to the 10% interest rate cap noise. Good Luck $SPY $QQQ #mastercard #creditcards $MA Q4 [----] EARNINGS PREVIEW Reports Thursday Jan [--] before market BLACKLINE/ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $4.28 (Street: $4.24) Revenue: $8.70B (Street: $8.78B) Initial Stock Reaction: UP THE SETUP: Beat streak: 21+ consecutive quarters (100% rate) Q4 is MA's BEST seasonal https://t.co/kOxkHsvD2H $MA Q4 [----] EARNINGS PREVIEW Reports Thursday Jan 39"
X Link 2026-01-29T00:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheTranscript_ Value-added services is the story. +26% this quarter +23% full year. Meanwhile stock was down 8.8% YTD on rate cap fears that don't apply to networks. Networks charge merchant fees not interest. The mispricing is correcting. $MA"
X Link 2026-01-29T16:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The $MA playbook: Market panics over rate cap fears Stock sells off for weeks Call OI quietly doubles at the money Earnings beat +4.3% Flow Fear. Every time. $SPY $QQQ"
X Link 2026-01-29T22:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GD 10-K just hit the wire. ALPHATICA Earnings Quality Score: 8.5/10 Tax Efficiency: ✅ Improving Profitability: ✅ Strong Capital Position: ✅ Clean Demand Visibility: ✅ Excellent Balance Sheet: ✅ Strengthening Operating Trends: ⚠ Watch Rating: ADD EXPOSURE Management is confident. The balance sheet says they're executing. One flag: margin pressure worth monitoring. We would be adding here. Not investment advice $SPY $QQQ $VIX @alphaticahq Wed be buyers on any dip in $GD. Earnings quality is pristine. $SPY $QQQ Wed be buyers on any dip in $GD. Earnings quality is pristine. $SPY $QQQ"
X Link 2026-01-30T19:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The Rate Cap Misconception 💳 We reviewed both $V & $MA Q&A from their respective conference calls yesterday. Everyone's panicking about credit card rate caps hitting them both. But here's what nobody's saying out loud: V and MA don't earn a dime from interest rates. Their business model: Transaction fees ✓ Interchange fees ✓ Network fees ✓ Value-added services ✓ Interest income That goes to the banks. Rate caps are a problem for: Capital One ( $COF) Discover ( $DFS) Synchrony ( $SYF) JPMorgan Chase ( $JPM) Not the networks. Management talked about "ecosystem concerns." Neither explicitly"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
""$1T company in the making" What the CEO says vs. what our data says: Our Earnings Quality Signal on NOW: ⚠ Mixed Management confidence quietly declining. FY earnings inflated by a $723M one-time tax benefit. Great business. Premium valuation. When the CEO says "best entry point" - he's selling. $NOW https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017696158798279159 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017696158798279159"
X Link 2026-01-31T20:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@KEEMSTAR Earnings beats. This week we called: $CAT: +11.2% EPS beat $MA: +12.3% EPS beat $V: +1.0% EPS beat $AAPL: +6.4% EPS beat (record quarter) [--] for [--]. Companies printing money dont care about the macro panic. $SPY"
X Link 2026-01-31T20:47Z [---] followers, 12.7K engagements
"$ORCL bought Cerner for $28B in [----]. Here's what it did to the balance sheet: FY2020: $21.8B equity FY2023: -$6.2B equity That's not a typo. Stockholders' equity went NEGATIVE. Now recovering. FY2025: $8.7B But the hangover isn't over: Operating margin: 37.6% 26.2% (still depressed) SBC: $1.6B $3.5B (doubled in [--] years) Retained earnings: -$22.6B (deeper in the hole) $62B in goodwill sitting on $8.7B of equity. One impairment away from trouble. ALPHATICA Earnings Quality Score: 5.5/10 - HOLD Great cloud story. Fragile balance sheet. $SPY $QQQ $VIX @theblacklinehq"
X Link 2026-02-01T18:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MacroEdgeRes $ORCL cutting 20-30K jobs. Here's why 👇 Stockholders' equity after the $28B Cerner acquisition: When equity goes NEGATIVE layoffs follow. The balance sheet predicted this. @theblacklinehq"
X Link 2026-02-01T18:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Adding to this: What the 10-K shows that cash flow doesn't: Operating margin: 37.6% 26.2% (still hasn't recovered post-Cerner) SBC: $1.6B $3.5B (doubled in [--] years - diluting shareholders) Retained earnings: -$22.6B (deeper in the hole) Larry's AI bet requires cash they don't have. Something had to give. [-----] jobs is the something. $ORCL https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018106276933476794 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018106276933476794"
X Link 2026-02-01T23:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$TSN Q1 FY2026 EARNINGS PREVIEW Reports tomorrow morning (pre-market) ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $1.05 (Street: $0.94) Revenue: $14.00B (Street: $14.02B) THE SETUP: [--] consecutive beats. Not small beats CRUSHING it: Q3 FY25: BEAT +32.2% Q2 FY25: BEAT +16.7% Q1 FY25: BEAT +12.2% Q4 FY24: BEAT +29.5% Q3 FY24: BEAT +33.3% This is a turnaround story. After the 2022-2023 chicken margin collapse Tyson has beaten [--] straight with double-digit surprises. THE BUSINESS: Tyson is the largest U.S. meat processor: Beef: $21.9B revenue (LOSING money) Chicken: $17.8B (recovered) Prepared Foods: $9.8B (stable)"
X Link 2026-02-02T04:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$TSN Q1 FY2026 EARNINGS: THE RECEIPTS RESULT: BEAT ✅ ACTUAL RESULTS: Adj EPS: $0.97 Revenue: $14.31B vs ESTIMATES: Metric Actual ALPHATICA Street ----------------------------------- EPS $0.97 $1.05 $0.94 Revenue $14.31B $14.00B $14.02B BEAT VS STREET: EPS: +3.2% Revenue: +2.1% ALPHATICA CALL: BEAT ✅ Confidence: HIGH Direction: CORRECT ✅ We said BEAT. It beat. 10th consecutive quarter. ACCURACY CHECK: EPS: Street closer (3.1% error vs our 8.2%) Revenue: Street closer (2.0% error vs our 2.2%) We over-estimated EPS magnitude. The beat streak continued but at smaller surprise than recent 16-32%"
X Link 2026-02-02T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$MA +2% this morning. +12.3% EPS beat Thursday. [--] consecutive quarters of beats. We called it: BEAT + UP. ✅ The rate cap panic was always mispriced. Networks don't charge interest. #Mastercard $SPY $QQQ $VIX"
X Link 2026-02-02T14:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AVGO FLOW UPDATE - Someone Knew Reuters just dropped: OpenAI is "unsatisfied" with NVIDIA's inference chips. They're looking at alternatives: AMD Cerebras Groq. But here's what matters: AVGO already has a custom AI accelerator deal with OpenAI. Announced October. [--] gigawatts of custom chips. Today's flow tells the story. THE DATA: Net Delta: +38.9% (heavy buying) Buy Volume: 15.6M shares Sell Volume: 6.9M shares Avg Buy Size: [--] shares Avg Sell Size: [--] shares Size ratio: 2.13x Institutions are the buyers. THE PATTERN: Pre-market: Retail accumulation 9:30-10:30 AM: Institutional buying"
X Link 2026-02-02T23:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$TER Q4 FY2025 EARNINGS: THE RECEIPTS RESULT: BEAT ✅ ACTUAL RESULTS: Non-GAAP EPS: $1.80 Revenue: $1.083B vs ESTIMATES: Metric Actual ALPHATICA Street ----------------------------------- EPS $1.80 $1.40 $1.36 Revenue $1.083B $1.00B $0.97B BEAT VS STREET: EPS: +32.4% Revenue: +11.6% ALPHATICA CALL: BEAT Confidence: MEDIUM Direction: CORRECT ✅ We said BEAT. It beat. Massively. ACCURACY CHECK: EPS: ALPHATICA WINS ✅ (22.2% under vs Street's 24.4%) Revenue: ALPHATICA WINS ✅ (7.7% under vs Street's 10.4%) Both under-estimated nobody saw this AI demand surge coming. STOCK REACTION: Initial: DOWN to"
X Link 2026-02-03T00:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$IT (Gartner) Q4 [----] WHY IT'S CRATERING THE PROBLEM: Contract Value growth: +1% FX Neutral that's the killer. For a subscription research business CV growth IS the business. +1% is stall speed. SEGMENT BREAKDOWN: Insights: +3% (core business slowing) Conferences: +14% (recovery) Consulting: -13% Other: -22% FULL YEAR [----] DAMAGE: GAAP EPS: $9.65 (-40% YoY) Net Income: $0.7B (-42% YoY) $150M goodwill impairment on Digital Markets CEO GENE HALL: "Fourth quarter financial results were ahead of expectations. Looking ahead we expect CV to accelerate throughout 2026." Translation: We know CV"
X Link 2026-02-03T13:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$AVGO Morning Update Current: $322.41 (-2.63%) WHAT HAPPENED: Pre-market held the gains - [--] absorption/accumulation signals through 9:26 AM at $334.63. Then the open hit: 9:41 AM: $330.30 (gap down) 9:56 AM: $324.66 10:04 AM: $322.41 Institutions absorbed selling pre-market but flipped to net sellers at the open. CONTEXT: The whole semi complex is getting hit this morning. This looks like sector rotation not AVGO-specific. The OpenAI/NVIDIA thesis is still intact - custom silicon deals don't disappear in a day. But the trade is giving back yesterday's accumulation. LEVELS TO WATCH:"
X Link 2026-02-03T15:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$IT (Gartner) down 25% this morning. We flagged this yesterday. But the real warning hit Net Income in FY2022. A $130M charge buried in the tax footnotes. Management's private signal: they didn't believe in their own future earnings. Filed February [----]. Two years before the collapse. 1/ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018716569799467387 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018716569799467387"
X Link 2026-02-03T16:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GD Update Jan 27: Called EPS beat ($4.05 vs Street $3.95) Actual: $4.17 ✅ Jan 28: Stock sold off on margin concerns. We said: "buying opportunity not a sell signal." Today: +7.26% Alphatica Earnings Quality: [--] bullish / [--] bearish Options flow: P/C [----] no panic The fundamentals were never broken. Market caught up. $GD Wed be buyers on any dip in $GD. Earnings quality is pristine. $SPY $QQQ Wed be buyers on any dip in $GD. Earnings quality is pristine. $SPY $QQQ"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SPY CLOSE - Trapped Below $690 Wall Close: $688.79 (-1.01% on day) DELTA - MMs STILL LONG Morning: MMs short 26M shares Close: MMs LONG 18.3M shares 44M share flip today. Selling pressure eased into close but MMs still selling rallies. GAMMA - $690 BECAME A MONSTER $690: -$460M 🚀 tripled today $689: -$144M 🚀 $688: -$74M 🚀 $685: -$124M 🚀 $680: -$205M 🚀 $675: -$163M 🚀 $700 magnet faded: +$101M 🧲 PUT HEDGING HELD NTM Put OI: +10.9% NTM Call OI: -4.4% TRANSLATION $690 is now the biggest wall on the board. MMs sell any push into it. Below: $685 $680 $675 all accelerator."
X Link 2026-02-03T21:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$LLY Q4 FY2025 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Wednesday February [--] Pre-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $6.99 Street Revenue: $17.87B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $7.05 Revenue: $18.1B Initial Stock Reaction: Down OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ THE PATTERN: Beat Rate: 73% (8 of [--] quarters) Last Quarter: BEAT +10.2% ($7.02 vs $6.37 est) Avg Surprise (3yr): +7.4% Recent History: Q3 2025: BEAT +10.2% Q2 2025: BEAT +12.9% Q1 2025: MISS -5.6% Q4 2024: BEAT +5.0% BLACKLINE/ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL: Tax Efficiency: ⚠ WATCH Profitability: ✅ BULLISH Operating Trends: ✅ BULLISH Earnings Quality: ✅ HEALTHY Capital"
X Link 2026-02-04T02:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$ABBV Q4 FY2025 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Tomorrow Pre-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $2.65 Company Guidance: $3.32 - $3.36 (ex-IPR&D) Street Revenue: $16.3B+ ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $2.70 Revenue: $16.4B Initial Stock Reaction: Down OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ THE PATTERN: Beat Rate: 85% (17 of [--] quarters) Last Quarter: BEAT +3% (normalized for IPR&D) Recent History: Q3 2025: BEAT +3% (reported -43% but IPR&D distorted) Q2 2025: BEAT +2% ($2.97 vs $2.91) Q1 2025: BEAT +3% ($2.46 vs $2.40) Q4 2024: BEAT +2% ($2.16 vs $2.12) Note: Q3 included $1.50/share IPR&D expense. Company BEAT their own guidance"
X Link 2026-02-04T03:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SPY MID-MORNING - Structure Improving Current: $688.50 (+0.08%) DELTA - MMs COVERING LONGS Yesterday: MMs LONG 28M shares Now: MMs LONG 6M shares 22M share shift. Less selling pressure. Will buy harder on rally. GAMMA - $690 WALL WEAKENING Yesterday's monster at $690 (-$460M) Now just -$70M 🚀 Accelerators fading: $690: -$70M 🚀 (was -$190M) $689: -$29M 🚀 (was -$64M) $688: -$30M 🚀 (was -$72M) $685: -$121M 🚀 (was -$160M) MAGNETS BUILDING ABOVE $691: +$9M 🧲 flipped positive $692: +$22M 🧲 $695: +$75M 🧲 $696: +$105M 🧲 $700: +$133M 🧲 CALL BUYING PICKED UP NTM Call OI: +7% NTM Put OI: flat"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Software stocks plunging globally fears of disruption hitting SaaS margins hard extending the tech rout. This feels like another chaotic twist in the AI 'three- body problem': hyperscalers can't stop building smart money can't coordinate exits and leverage amplifies the risks. Prescient read amid the red tape: $QQQ $NVDA $MSFT $CRM $NOW $VIX $SPY https://x.com/theblacklinehq/status/2017804957009797275 https://t.co/InxgI4XRqJ https://x.com/theblacklinehq/status/2017804957009797275 https://t.co/InxgI4XRqJ"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@dee_bosa - This is the thread that should keep every SaaS CEO up at night. 🧵 The moat question is THE question. For years we've been told: "It would take years and millions to rebuild Now someone recreates $MNDY in an hour. Before coffee. So what IS the moat in [----] ❌ Not the UI (AI builds that) ❌ Not the integrations (APIs are commoditized) ❌ Not "features" (vibe-coded in minutes) Maybe: ✅ Network effects / your team is already there ✅ Data gravity / years of your workflows ✅ Enterprise trust & compliance ✅ Brand & distribution But even those feel shakier by the day. Watching closely:"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"🚨 ALPHATICA BUY SIGNAL: $ORCL THE SETUP: Oracle down 24% since September. [--] consecutive red days. Today alone -6%. WHY: $45-50B capital raise spooked investors. Dilution fears. Bondholder lawsuit noise. WHAT THEY'RE MISSING: This capital funds REAL demand OpenAI Meta Nvidia xAI contracts. UBS cut target but maintains BUY. Business isn't broken. Balance sheet is funding growth. THE SIGNAL: Our quantitative model triggered a buy today. Extreme oversold conditions on a quality name. Over [--] years pooled trades [----] trades 58.8% win rate 6/8 statistical significance tests passed ORCL"
X Link 2026-02-04T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SPY AFTERNOON - Morning Optimism Gone Current: $684.25 (-0.62% from morning) DELTA - COMPLETE REVERSAL Morning: MMs LONG 6M shares Now: MMs LONG 49M shares 43M share flip. Back to selling every bounce. MAGNETS FADED $696: +$37M 🧲 (was +$105M) $695: +$38M 🧲 (was +$75M) $700: +$96M 🧲 (was +$133M) Upside pull cut in half. ACCELERATORS STRENGTHENED BELOW $682: -$75M 🚀 (was -$50M) $675: -$201M 🚀 (was -$173M) $670: -$193M 🚀 (was -$160M) NTM POSITIONING FLIPPED Call OI: -7% Put OI: +2.6% Protection bid is back. TRANSLATION Morning: Trapdoor closing path to $695. Afternoon: Trapdoor reopening."
X Link 2026-02-04T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"We would not enter until the price reaches $220 or even a few dollars below. That's where the stock price is heading. $UNH $UNH Follow-Up: The Footnotes Told the Story Last night we posted our deep dive into UNH's annual filings. The warning signs were there: What we flagged:🚨 MLR spiked to 85.6% up 2.4pp YoY highest in 6+ years 🚨 $7.4B margin compression ⚠ Debt up $14B YoY to $72.4B ⚠ https://t.co/yMmRv5CaFo $UNH Follow-Up: The Footnotes Told the Story Last night we posted our deep dive into UNH's annual filings. The warning signs were there: What we flagged:🚨 MLR spiked to 85.6% up 2.4pp"
X Link 2026-02-04T20:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$COHR ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL SCORE: 2/6 ⚠ 🚨 NOT A BUYER The headline numbers look great (revenue +17% EPS +71%) but the underlying signals are flashing warnings: [--]. Management isn't confident. [--]. Customers aren't prepaying (contract liability down 56%). [--]. Cash isn't following earnings (CFO/NI of 0.28x). [--]. Inventory building faster than sales (+29% vs +17%) This is a classic case of earnings quality diverging from earnings quantity. The reported numbers look good but the signals that predict sustainability are weak. Would wait for: Contract liability stabilization and CFO"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@GrindeOptions Agreed. Structure can flip overnight. Yesterday MMs were selling every bounce. This morning they started covering. Volatility isnt a reason to panic - its a reason to read the flow"
X Link 2026-02-05T01:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$HUBB (Hubbell Incorporated) BLACKLINE/ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL: 6/6 ✅ FY25 Revenue: $5.84B (+4% YoY) FY25 Adj. EPS: $18.21 (+10% YoY) Adj. Op Margin: 22.7% Quality signals confirm the story: [--]. Management releasing tax reserves confident in profits [--]. Deferred revenue +223% customers prepaying [--]. CFO at 116% of net income cash exceeds earnings [--]. Inventory efficiency improving [--]. FCF conversion 99% Catalyst: Datacenter + grid modernization driving demand. Guiding 57% organic growth FY26. Bottom Line: Customer prepayments and cash flow confirm earnings quality not accounting noise."
X Link 2026-02-05T02:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$COHR down 12% pre-market this morning. $COHR ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL SCORE: 2/6 ⚠ 🚨 NOT A BUYER The headline numbers look great (revenue +17% EPS +71%) but the underlying signals are flashing warnings: [--]. Management isn't confident. [--]. Customers aren't prepaying (contract liability down 56%). [--]. https://t.co/7lT4gjQxzm $COHR ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL SCORE: 2/6 ⚠ 🚨 NOT A BUYER The headline numbers look great (revenue +17% EPS +71%) but the underlying signals are flashing warnings: [--]. Management isn't confident. [--]. Customers aren't prepaying (contract liability down 56%)."
X Link 2026-02-05T14:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$COHR HALTED $COHR ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL SCORE: 2/6 ⚠ 🚨 NOT A BUYER The headline numbers look great (revenue +17% EPS +71%) but the underlying signals are flashing warnings: [--]. Management isn't confident. [--]. Customers aren't prepaying (contract liability down 56%). [--]. https://t.co/7lT4gjQxzm $COHR ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL SCORE: 2/6 ⚠ 🚨 NOT A BUYER The headline numbers look great (revenue +17% EPS +71%) but the underlying signals are flashing warnings: [--]. Management isn't confident. [--]. Customers aren't prepaying (contract liability down 56%). [--]. https://t.co/7lT4gjQxzm"
X Link 2026-02-05T14:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AVGO MORNING FLOW - Catalyst Working Current: $313.75 (+1.85% from $308.05 close) WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT Pre-market gapped to $325 (+5.5%) on the Google CapEx catalyst. Then sellers hit hard. $325 $311 in [--] minutes. Then buyers stepped in. $311 $324 snap reversal. Now settling at $313.75. FLOW Buy volume: 5.58M shares Sell volume: 4.41M shares Net delta: +1.17M shares (+11.7%) Buyers winning. INSTITUTIONAL FLOW Inst buys: 51.8% of large orders Not a blowout but institutions are net buyers through the volatility. KEY MOMENTS 9:03-9:18: Institutional selling hit. Price dropped to $312. 9:48:"
X Link 2026-02-05T15:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Alphabet's monster $175185B capex guidance for 2026nearly double last yearhas markets spooked again despite the earnings beat. Classic hyperscaler prisoner's dilemma: no one can stop building without falling behind even as ROI questions mount. This is the 'three-body problem' in action. Timely breakdown amid today's tech rout: $GOOGL $QQQ $NVDA $MSFT $VIX $SPY https://x.com/theblacklinehq/status/2017804957009797275 https://t.co/InxgI4XRqJ https://x.com/theblacklinehq/status/2017804957009797275 https://t.co/InxgI4XRqJ"
X Link 2026-02-05T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SPY AFTERNOON - Accelerators Building Around Price Current: $680.26 (+0.23% from morning) DELTA - MMs STILL HEAVILY SHORT Morning: MMs short 70M shares. Now: MMs short 65M shares. Slight covering but still massive buy pressure on any rally. GAMMA - $680 WALL GOT BIGGER $680: -$346M 🚀 (was -$246M) sitting right here $675: -$341M 🚀 (was -$291M) $670: -$238M 🚀 (was -$221M) Every accelerator below strengthened. ACCELERATORS ABOVE TOO $681: -$60M 🚀 $682: -$64M 🚀 $683: -$32M 🚀 $684: -$38M 🚀 Trapped between accelerators in both directions. NTM POSITIONING SHIFT Put OI: -212K (-5.5%) hedges"
X Link 2026-02-05T18:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GOOGL AFTERNOON - Institutions Buying The Dip Current: $330.13 (-0.87%) at top of day's range THE MORNING Pre-market hit $333. Opened at $311 low on tariff panic. That's a 6.5% swing before most traders woke up. FLOW Buy volume: 15.7M shares Sell volume: 12.7M shares Net delta: +3M shares (+10.4%) Buyers winning decisively. INSTITUTIONAL FLOW Avg buy size: [--] shares. Avg sell size: [--] shares. Size ratio: 1.37x Institutions are the buyers. THE REVERSAL Pre-market: Distribution 🟠 (heavy selling down to $311) 9:36-10:36: Institutional buying started 12:51-14:19: Buying pressure 🟢 took over"
X Link 2026-02-05T19:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AMZN Q4 [----] EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $1.96 Street Revenue: $210.9B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $1.96 Revenue: $211.8B OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ Numbers should beat. [--] straight beats with an average surprise of +23.4%. The real question is guidance and AWS trajectory. THE PATTERN: Beat Rate: 100% (8 of [--] quarters) Last Quarter: BEAT +27% Beat Streak: [--] quarters Recent History: Q3 2025: BEAT +27% ($1.95 vs $1.54) Q2 2025: BEAT +26% ($1.68 vs $1.33) Q1 2025: BEAT +17% ($1.59 vs $1.36) Q4 2024: BEAT +25% ($1.86 vs $1.49) Avg Surprise: +$0.28 per quarter ALPHATICA"
X Link 2026-02-05T20:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$RBLX Q4 FY2025 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: -$0.46 Street Revenue: $2.08B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: -$0.40 Revenue: $2.12B OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ Our model predicts -$0.28 vs street -$0.46. We're calling smaller loss than consensus. THE PATTERN: Recent Beat Rate: 87.5% (7 of [--] quarters) Overall Beat Rate: 55% (11 of 20) Last Quarter: BEAT +26% Recent History: Q3 FY25: BEAT +26% Q2 FY25: MISS -14% Q1 FY25: BEAT +20% Q4 FY24: BEAT +27% ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL: Tax Efficiency: ⚠ NEUTRAL Profitability: 🚨 BEARISH Operating Trends: ✅ BULLISH Earnings"
X Link 2026-02-05T20:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$RBLX Q4 [----] EARNINGS: BEAT ✅ RESULTS: EPS: -$0.45 vs -$0.46 est BEAT Revenue: $2.22B vs $2.08B est BEAT (+6.7%) OUR CALL: BEAT RESULT: BEAT ✅ ALPHATICA ESTIMATES VS ACTUAL: We said: -$0.40 EPS $2.12B revenue Actual: -$0.45 EPS $2.22B revenue Revenue beat even our above-street estimate. THE SETUP WAS THERE: Quality Signal: 2/6 BEARISH Chen Model: -$0.28 (bullish vs street) Recent Beat Rate: 87.5% We went with the model despite weak quality signal. Model delivered. WHAT WORKED: Revenue acceleration. $2.22B crushed the $2.08B estimate. Losses narrower than feared. -$0.45 beat the -$0.46"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$MOH CRUSHED - Healthcare Thesis Confirmed Down 28% pre-market. We've been warning about health insurers for weeks. This is why. THE NUMBERS Q4 EPS: -$3.15 (LOSS) Street expected: +$5.05 That's not a miss. That's a disaster. FULL YEAR COLLAPSE [----] EPS: $20.42 [----] EPS: $8.92 [----] Guidance: $3.20 That's an 84% EPS decline in two years. THE MEDICAL COST RATIO TELLS THE STORY Q4 [----] MCR: 90.2% Q4 [----] MCR: 94.6% When your medical costs are 94.6% of premium revenue there's almost nothing left. SEGMENT BREAKDOWN - ALL RED Medicaid MCR: 93.5% (was 90.2%) Medicare MCR: 97.5% (was 93.8%)"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$TEAM - Called It August 7: "TEAM going to crater." August [--] Price: $171 Today: $89 Down 48%. TODAY'S RESULTS Revenue: $1.59B (+23% YoY) ✅ BEAT Cloud: $1.07B (+26% YoY) ✅ First $1B quarter Non-GAAP EPS: $1.22 ✅ BEAT RPO: $3.8B (+44% YoY) ✅ Strong backlog STILL DOWN 9% AFTER HOURS Despite beating everything. WHY The AI disruption thesis. Anthropic's Claude and agentic AI are repricing the entire SaaS sector. When we called it in August the market hadn't fully priced in a world where AI agents replace the workflows Atlassian sells. Beat the quarter. Doesn't matter. Multiple compression is"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"after-hours. We apologize for the typo. $MOH"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@alc2022 The market is pricing AI as a tool not a product. Chips that power AI Buy. Infrastructure that enables AI Buy. Software that AI might replace Sell. The market isnt confused. Its just betting on the picks and shovels. $SPY $QQQ"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"10:52 AM $GOOGL MORNING - Institutions Buying The Dip Again Current: $322.84 (-2.5% on day) THE PATTERN REPEATS Yesterday: Gapped down on tariff panic institutions bought all day recovered from -6.5% to -0.9%. Today: Down 2.5% at the open. Same playbook unfolding. MORNING FLOW: Buy volume: 5.23M shares Sell volume: 4.66M shares Net delta: +565K shares (+5.7%) Buyers still winning despite the red tape. THE SIGNAL - STEALTH ACCUMULATION [--] of the last [--] intervals show 🟢 Stealth Accumulation or Buying Pressure. Price falling. Buy delta positive. Big money adding while weak hands sell. TRADE"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"How far does Bitcoin have to fall before Saylor goes insolvent We did the math. 🧵👇"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"THE SETUP: MSTR holds [------] BTC at $76052 avg cost. That's $54.3B in Bitcoin against $8.2B in convertible debt. Current BTC price: $77K. They're barely above breakeven"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"THE DEBT STRUCTURE: Here's what most people get wrong the converts have: -NO margin calls -Near-zero interest (0.42% blended) -Maturities spread 2028-2032 Saylor can't be "margin called" like a leveraged trader"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"THE REAL RISK: It's not the converts. It's the 11.25% preferred dividend. MSTR issued perpetual preferred stock (STRK) paying $900M+ annually by [----]. The software business only generates $50-100M in cash flow. That gap has to come from somewhere"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"THE THRESHOLDS: $76052 Breakeven (now) $50000 Refinancing stress (-34%) $40000 Crisis zone (-47%) $11500 Technical insolvency (-85%) At $11.5K liabilities exceed assets. Equity = $0"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"THE 2028-2030 PROBLEM: -$2B of notes can be PUT back to MSTR in March [----] -$3B matures December [----] $2B matures March [----] If BTC is at $40-50K when these come due refinancing gets very ugly"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"WHY HE SURVIVES LONGER THAN YOU THINK: [--]. No margin calls on the Bitcoin [--]. Can pay preferred dividends in stock (dilutive but not fatal) [--]. ATM program still has $8B+ capacity [--]. Software business is cash flow positive"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"ALPHATICA WEEKLY RECAP Week of February 2-6 [----] THIS WEEK'S CALLS: $GOOGL Called BEAT BEAT ✅ EPS: $2.82 vs $2.64 est (+6.8%) Revenue: $113.8B vs $111.5B est (+2.1%) Cloud accelerated +34% +48%. Record $400B+ revenue year. $QCOM Called BEAT BEAT ✅ EPS: $3.50 vs $3.40 est (+2.9%) Revenue: $12.25B vs $12.18B est (+0.6%) Record revenues. Beat streak: [--] quarters. $AMZN Called BEAT MISS ❌ EPS: $1.95 vs $1.96 est (missed by $0.01) Revenue: $213.4B vs $210.9B est (+1.2%) Revenue beat. EPS missed by a penny. Stock -13%. $RBLX Called BEAT BEAT ✅ EPS: -$0.45 vs -$0.46 est (beat) Revenue: $2.22B vs"
X Link 2026-02-06T18:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AVGO CLOSE - Quiet Strength Close: $332.20 (+5.5% on the day) THE SETUP Wednesday: Google drops $175-185B CapEx bomb. AVGO makes their TPU chips. Thursday: Panic drags everything down. AVGO holds $311 twice. Friday: Rips 5.5% while market recovers. INTRADAY FLOW Order flow buy%: 63.7% Buyers in control all day. DARK POOL ACTIVITY Block trades: [---] ($1M+ each) Volume below price: $560M Volume above: $70M Heavy institutional activity concentrated in the $320-330 zone. Large players are engaged at these levels. KEY LEVELS Support: $330 $320 $311 (double bottom) Resistance: $333-$334 THE PICTURE"
X Link 2026-02-06T21:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SPY CLOSE - Structure Flipped Bullish Close: $690.69 (+1.93% on the day) DELTA - MMs FULLY SHORT Morning: MMs LONG 28M shares (selling rallies) Close: MMs SHORT 31M shares (buying dips) 59M share flip today. MMs now support the bid aggressively. GAMMA - MAGNETS STACKED ABOVE $690: +$96M 🧲 $691: +$216M 🧲 $692: +$249M 🧲 biggest magnet $693: +$147M 🧲 $695: +$103M 🧲 $700: +$169M 🧲 Path to $700 is paved with magnets. ACCELERATORS FADED $680: -$92M (was -$226M) $675: -$151M (was -$267M) $670: -$118M (was -$178M) Downside trapdoors closing. NTM POSITIONING Call OI: +156K (+6.9%) Put OI: -306K"
X Link 2026-02-06T21:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$TXN ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SIGNAL: 4/6 ⚠ NEUTRAL TXN 10-K just dropped. Our team analyzed the data. The semiconductor cycle is recovering but is it back 📈 Revenue: $17.68B (+13% YoY) 📈 Operating Income: $6.02B (+10% YoY) 📉 vs [----] Peak: Still down 12% The good news: Revenue inflected. Industrial and auto demand returning. The subtle warning signs: DSO lengthened from [--] [--] days over [--] years Bad debt reserves doubled (0.47% 1.12%) Valuation allowance increased $18M Customers are taking longer to pay. That's not a crisis but it's worth watching. TXN is the bellwether for industrial"
X Link 2026-02-07T00:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The rotation into software is real. But not all software is created equal. Weve been running our Earnings Quality Signal on key $IGV names: $NOW (ServiceNow) Call: [---] AI mentions. Agentic platform. Beat on everything. Filing: VA +12% YoY. $723M tax benefit inflated earnings. Signal: MIXED ⚠ $IBM Software segment +12% YoY. Margins expanding. Free cash flow growing. Confluent acquisition positions them for AI/data streaming. Signal: BULLISH ✅ $LRCX (Lam Research) Beat [--] straight quarters. But 50% China exposure is a headwind. Signal: WATCH 👀 The money is flooding in. The question is: which"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The gamma data supports this. Tuesday: MMs long 70M shares. Selling every rally. Friday: MMs short 31M shares. Buying every dip. Thats a 100M share positioning flip in [--] days. When market makers flip from long to short delta they mechanically buy dips to stay hedged. Add short sellers covering on top of that and you get the snapback we just saw. The largest short selling in history becomes fuel for the squeeze when positioning reverses. This is why we track flow not headlines. $SPY https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020230938651705542 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020230938651705542"
X Link 2026-02-07T20:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The flow supports this. Tuesday: Tariff panic. MMs long 70M shares selling every bounce. Friday: MMs short 31M shares buying every dip. Magnets stacked to $700. Thats a 100M share positioning flip in [--] days. Four selloffs in three months. Four recoveries. The pattern is clear - dips are getting bought. Structure says the bid is supported. $692 is the next magnet. Break that and $700 is in play. We dont predict price targets. We track flow. Right now flow says higher. $SPY $QQQ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020234485837533438 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020234485837533438"
X Link 2026-02-07T20:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"We are going to continue to push back on these posts. The AI replaces everyone thesis assumes adoption happens overnight. It doesnt. 2000: The internet will eliminate all retail jobs. 2010: Mobile apps will eliminate all service jobs. 2020: Automation will eliminate all warehouse jobs. Reality: Jobs shifted. New ones emerged. Unemployment didnt spike to 30%. AI is a productivity tool not a mass layoff event. Companies are using it to do more with the same headcount not fire half their workforce. Goldman just embedded Anthropic engineers for [--] months. Their own statement: efficiency gains"
X Link 2026-02-07T21:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The numbers say otherwise. $GOOGL just guided $175-185B in CapEx AND still generated $73B in FCF last year. $META has $42B cash on hand. $AAPL just authorized another $110B buyback. These companies arent choosing between AI spend and buybacks. Theyre doing both. The CapEx crowds out buybacks thesis assumes theyre cash constrained. Theyre not. Theyre printing money. Cloud revenue is already showing returns: GOOGL Cloud +48% YoY Azure +31% AWS +19%. AI spend isnt a black hole. Its already flowing to the bottom line. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020250479410786325"
X Link 2026-02-07T21:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Same story different framing. $33B sounds massive until you do the math. SPY alone trades $30B+ daily. The entire US equity market trades $500B+ daily. $33B spread across a week is noise not a crash. Goldman isnt warning you out of kindness. Theyre positioning. When banks tell retail to expect selling ask whos on the other side of that trade. $SPY $QQQ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020569228156215400 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020569228156215400"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The fear engagement bait is real on this platform. $33B sounds massive until you do the math. SPY alone trades $30B+ daily. The entire US equity market trades $500B+ daily. $33B spread across a week is noise not a crash. Goldman isnt warning you out of kindness. Theyre positioning. When banks tell retail to expect selling ask whos on the other side of that trade. $SPY $QQQ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020571232832197045 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020571232832197045"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Same story different framing. $33B sounds massive until you do the math. SPY alone trades $30B+ daily. The entire US equity market trades $500B+ daily. $33B spread across a week is noise not a crash. Goldman isnt warning you out of kindness. Theyre positioning. When banks tell retail to expect selling ask whos on the other side of that trade. $SPY $QQQ $VIX https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020612533217034298 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020612533217034298"
X Link 2026-02-08T21:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$600B in US stocks The entire BOJ balance sheet holds $0 in US equities. They own JGBs and domestic ETFs. Japanese pension funds (GPIF) hold $250B in foreign equities total - not all US not all stocks. For Japan to sell $600B in US stocks they'd have to sell assets they don't own. This is rage bait not analysis. Turn off the notifications. Check the actual data. $SPY $QQQ $VIX https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020621379012341800 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020621379012341800"
X Link 2026-02-08T22:10Z [---] followers, 24.1K engagements
"$AVGO MORNING - Momentum Continues Current: $342.12 (+3.0% on the day) THE MOVE Friday close: $332.20 Monday morning: Ripping to $342+ Up 10% from Thursday's tariff lows at $311. FLOW STATUS: 🟡 BUILDING Order flow buy%: 57.9% Avg buy size: [--] vs Avg sell size: [--] Buyers in control. DARK POOL ACTIVITY Block trades: [--] ($1M+ each) Support below: $175.8M Overhead resistance: $2.4M Ratio: 73x more support than resistance. Institutions aren't selling this move. KEY LEVELS Support: $340 $339 $336 $333 Resistance: $343 (minimal - only $2.4M) THE PICTURE Google CapEx catalyst confirmed. Hyperscaler"
X Link 2026-02-09T16:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"🚨 ALPHATICA BUY SIGNAL: $MSFT THE SETUP: Microsoft down from $470 highs. Touched $400.87 intraday our signal triggered. WHY: Tech rotation fears. DeepSeek noise. Broader market weakness. WHAT THEY'RE MISSING: Azure growing 30%+. AI infrastructure leader. $130B cash on balance sheet. This is a gift. THE SIGNAL: Our quantitative model triggered a buy today. Oversold conditions on a quality name. BACKTEST (10 years): [--] trades 63.6% win rate Profit Factor: [----] 5/6 statistical tests passed LEVELS: Entry: $400.87 Target: $459.81 Stop: $385.09 Risk/Reward: 3.7:1. We buy fear. We sell greed."
X Link 2026-02-09T16:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The market just answered @michaeljburry $100B+ in orders for a $15B offering. 7x oversubscribed. That's not investors betting on the next Motorola. That's institutions fighting to lock in Alphabet debt for [---] years. Bond buyers are the skeptics of the financial world. They get paid back or they don't. No upside only downside. When bond buyers are lining up 7x deep for century bonds they're not seeing a company about to get disrupted. They're seeing a cash machine that will outlive most of us. Burry's pattern recognition is usually sharp. But the bond market is voting with real money. And"
X Link 2026-02-09T17:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The flow agrees. Today: MMs short 53M shares. Call Vol/OI at 64% - new call positions opening aggressively. Magnets stacked from $694 to $700. $695: +$314M 🧲 biggest magnet sitting right here $696: +$230M 🧲 $697: +$159M 🧲 $700: +$248M 🧲 Four selloffs in three months. Four recoveries. The pattern is clear. Structure supports higher. We're at $695 - the magnet zone. $700 is 0.8% away. We don't predict. We track flow. Flow says bid is supported. $SPY $QQQ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020936006229426201 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020936006229426201"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$UPWK - Our Signal Called It Before earnings: Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal flagged BEARISH After earnings: Down 18% after hours. We flag. We don't trade. But the signal works. $SPY $QQQ $UPWK $UPWK - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tonight post-market. Street estimate: $0.31 Current: $19.36 VOLATILITY METRICS Expected Move: 16.69% ($3.23) Options pricing a big move tonight. IV SPREAD: BEARISH Call IV: 130.6% Put IV: 136.4% Spread: -5.77% Puts $UPWK - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tonight post-market. Street estimate: $0.31 Current: $19.36 VOLATILITY"
X Link 2026-02-09T21:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Flow confirms. $SPY (693.95) MMs short 38M shares. Magnets stacked $695-$700. $695: +$70M 🧲 $696: +$88M 🧲 $697: +$75M 🧲 $700: +$193M 🧲 biggest [----] SPX = $700 SPY. Path is clear. $META (676.30) MMs short 30M shares. Call-heavy flow (P/C ratio 0.62). $680: +$6.6M 🧲 $690: +$5.0M 🧲 $700: +$19.0M 🧲 massive magnet [---] break 690/700 magnets pull price higher. Flow agrees with your levels. $QQQ (614.30) This one's different. MMs long 9M shares. Net sellers on rallies. $618: +$12.6M 🧲 $620: -$1.8M 🚀 $625: +$33.2M 🧲 $630: +$58.5M 🧲 biggest [---] is the key. Below that accelerators down to"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$ALAB - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: NEUTRAL Reporting today post-market. Street estimate: $0.30 Current: $182.54 VOLATILITY METRICS Expected Move: 10.78% ($19.67) ATM IV: 180.8% 1-Week Realized Vol: 177.2% EVRP: +3.7% (NEUTRAL) Options pricing is in line with recent volatility. No disconnect - this stock is already trading like earnings every day. IV SPREAD: NEUTRAL Call IV: 181.9% Put IV: 180.3% Spread: +1.60%. Balanced positioning. No directional bias from options flow. HISTORICAL MOVES (Last [--] Quarters)Q3 2025: 1.47% Q2 2025: 28.66% Q1 2025: 0.38% Q4 2024: 10.89% Avg 3-Year PMIE:"
X Link 2026-02-10T20:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"🚨 $MOH 10-K JUST DROPPED Our team ran the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal on Molina Healthcare's fresh filing. The Verdict: 2/6 BEARISH ❌ THE SETUP: Revenue grew 12% to $45.4B. Sounds healthy right THE PROBLEM: Net income collapsed 60% EPS cratered from $20.42 $8.92 Operating margin compressed [---] bps Operating cash flow swung from +$640M to -$535M Revenue up. Cash flow negative. That's not growth that's a margin squeeze. THE SIGNAL: Our quantitative framework flagged [--] of [--] categories bearish. The tax efficiency signal held steady but profitability capital position and balance sheet"
X Link 2026-02-11T00:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Flow confirms. Levels are right. $SPY (692.12) MMs short 14M shares - lightest in days. Covered hard today. $693: +$11M 🧲 right above $696-$700: Magnets stacked but faded from this morning $690: -$83M 🚀 first accelerator below Structure neutral. Need to reclaim $693 to rebuild momentum to $700. $TSLA (425.90) This is the cleanest chart of the three. MMs short 72M shares - massive. They buy every dip. $420-$450: Wall of magnets $425: +$9.3M 🧲 $430: +$11.3M 🧲 $435: +$13.6M 🧲 $440: +$16.7M 🧲 $450: +$19.7M 🧲 Accelerators don't start until $410. Your [---] support level checks out. 440-450"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$TTD Q4 FY2025 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $0.57 Street Revenue: $841M ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $0.58 Revenue: $845M INITIAL STOCK REACTION: UP OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ 89% lifetime beat rate. 7-quarter streak. Stock down 77% expectations are in the basement. Street is pricing at management's guidance floor. THE PATTERN: Beat Rate: 89.2% (33 of [--] quarters) Last Quarter: BEAT +2.3% Beat Streak: [--] quarters Recent History: Q3 2025: BEAT +2.3% ($0.45 vs $0.44) Q2 2025: MEET ($0.41 vs $0.41) Q1 2025: BEAT +32% ($0.33 vs $0.25) Q4 2024: BEAT +3.6% ($0.59 vs $0.57)"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$APP Q4 [----] RESULTS THE RECEIPTS WE SAID: BEAT ✅ RESULT: BEAT ✅ ALPHATICA vs STREET: Revenue: Alphatica: $1.63B Street: $1.61B Actual: $1.658B Alphatica Error: 1.7% Street Error: 2.9% We beat the Street on revenue. EPS: Alphatica: $2.98 Actual: $3.24 Our model underestimated (8% low) THE RESULTS: Revenue: $1.658B (+66% YoY) = BEAT Adjusted EBITDA: $1.399B (84% margin) Net Income: $1.102B (+84% YoY) Free Cash Flow: $1.31B Stock: DOWN 4.42% RISK SIGNAL CALLED THE DIRECTION: We said: BEARISH SKEW (puts at premium) Result: DOWN 4.4% ✅ Q1 GUIDANCE: Revenue: $1.745B-$1.775B Adjusted EBITDA:"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is not how any of this works. The Bank of Japan doesn't "dump" bonds at scheduled times like a crypto rug pull. What happens at 6:50 PM ET is the release of Japan's balance of payments data - a backward-looking report on capital flows that already happened. The $713 billion figure floating around That's likely referencing net outflows over an extended period not a single transaction. And most Japanese holdings of US Treasuries are held by private institutions and the GPIF pension fund not the BOJ itself. What the BOJ actually holds: Japanese Government Bonds and domestic ETFs. Their"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$SPY INTO THE CLOSE - Positioned for Pain Current: $682.99 [--] minutes left. Structure is as bearish as it gets. DELTA - MMs STILL LONG MMs long 46M shares. They're selling rallies not buying dips. GAMMA - $685 IS NOW A WALL $685: -$356M 🚀 exploded from -$222M this morning $680: -$171M 🚀 $675: -$247M 🚀 $670: -$157M 🚀 $660: -$101M 🚀 $650: -$110M 🚀 Accelerators everywhere. First magnet is $700 (+$84M) - 2.5% away. VOLUME TELLS THE STORY Call Vol/OI: 101% more call volume than total open interest Put Vol/OI: 55% NTM Put OI: +15.5% since open NTM Call OI: -6.5% since open Massive"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Respect for Burry but this comparison has holes. Motorola in [----] was a hardware company betting on a single product cycle. When Nokia and then iPhone disrupted handsets they had nothing else. Alphabet in 2026: Search: 90% market share $175B/year YouTube: $60B annual revenue Cloud: +48% YoY fastest growing hyperscaler Android: 3B+ devices Waymo DeepMind Gemini Motorola had one moat. Alphabet has five. The 100-year bond isn't hubris. It's locking in cheap capital while they can. With $100B+ cash on hand they don't need the money. They're arbitraging rates. Is Alphabet vulnerable to disruption"
X Link 2026-02-09T16:37Z [---] followers, 17.7K engagements
"$UPWK - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tonight post-market. Street estimate: $0.31 Current: $19.36 VOLATILITY METRICS Expected Move: 16.69% ($3.23) Options pricing a big move tonight. IV SPREAD: BEARISH Call IV: 130.6% Put IV: 136.4% Spread: -5.77% Puts trading at a premium. Hedging demand elevated. EVRP: HIGH RISK ATM IV: 133.5% 1-Week Realized Vol: 106.3% Premium: +27.2% Options pricing significantly more risk than recent price action suggests. HISTORICAL MOVES (Last [--] Quarters) Q4 2025: 2.25% Q3 2025: 1.40% Q2 2025: 13.64% Q1 2025: 18.02% Avg 3-Year PMIE: 11.79% THE"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$ON UPDATE- ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SCORE: 2/6 BEARISH $ON Semiconductor: The Real Story Behind the -92% Earnings Collapse 🔬 ON just filed their 10-K. The headline looks catastrophic: Net Income: $1.57B $121M (-92%) EPS: $3.63 $0.29 (-92%) But here's what actually happened: THE IMPAIRMENT BOMB Restructuring & impairments went from $134M to $667M. That's $533M in extra charges mostly fab/equipment writedowns as they rationalize capacity during the semi downcycle. WHAT IT WOULD HAVE LOOKED LIKE: Without the excess impairment: Operating Income: $617M (not $84M) Still down 65% but not 95% The"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SPY MORNING - Magnets Expanding Current: $695.42 (+0.2%) DELTA - MMs SHORT BIG Net Delta: MMs short 50M shares Friday close: 38M short. Now 50M. They're buying dips harder. Bid is supported. GAMMA - $700 MAGNET MASSIVE $695: +$46M 🧲 sitting here now $696: +$111M 🧲 $697: +$136M 🧲 $698: +$147M 🧲 $699: +$164M 🧲 $700: +$278M 🧲 biggest magnet Wall of magnets from here to $700. Each strike pulling price higher. ACCELERATORS FADING $690: -$125M 🚀 (was support now below) $685: -$187M 🚀 $680: -$94M 🚀 VOLUME Call Vol/OI: 21.0% Put Vol/OI: 9.6% Calls trading 2x the rate of puts. THE SETUP"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SPGI UPDATE - Thesis Playing Out Morning: $414.48 Now: $410.07 (-1.1%) WHAT WE SAID THIS MORNING "MMs long (selling rallies) accelerators stacked below put positioning heavy. Not a name I'd want to be long here without a catalyst. Structure says chop or lower." Price dropped 1.1% into the accelerator zone. STRUCTURE UPDATE -Delta: MMs still long 505K shares (was 698K). Covering some but still selling rallies. -Put Flow Accelerating: Put Vol/OI jumped from 26% 38%. Hedging continues. -NTM Put OI: Down 9% - some puts getting closed (profit taking on the move down). ACCELERATORS STILL IN"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GILD - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tonight post-market. Street estimate: $1.83 Current: $149.41 VOLATILITY METRICS Expected Move: 4.68% ($6.99) Options pricing a modest move tonight. HIGH RISK ATM IV: 74.4% 1-Week Realized Vol: 27.6% Premium: +46.7% Options pricing nearly 3x the recent volatility. Market expects tonight to be different. IV SPREAD: NEUTRAL Call IV: 76.0% Put IV: 74.9% Spread: +1.07% Balanced positioning. No clear directional bias from options flow. HISTORICAL MOVES (Last [--] Quarters) Q4 2025: 1.50% Q3 2025: 0.05% Q2 2025: 0.00% Q1 2025: 1.27% Avg 3-Year"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$TMUS - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tomorrow pre-market. Street estimate: $2.06 Current: $198.57 VOLATILITY METRICS Expected Move: 5.65% ($11.21) ATM IV: 87.5% 1-Week Realized Vol: 24.4% EVRP: +63.1% (HIGH RISK) IV SPREAD: NEUTRAL Call IV: 86.4% Put IV: 88.2% Spread: -1.81% HISTORICAL MOVES (Last [--] Quarters) Q3 2025: 3.26% Q2 2025: 5.80% Q1 2025: 11.22% Q4 2024: 6.34% Avg 3-Year PMIE: 3.62% Options pricing 5.65% vs a 3.62% historical average - a 56% premium to history. Meanwhile TMUS has been trading calmly at just 24% realized vol. The Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal"
X Link 2026-02-10T20:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HUM - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tomorrow pre-market. Street estimate: -$4.01 Current: $182.45 VOLATILITY METRICS Expected Move: 8.89% ($16.22) ATM IV: 137.7% 1-Week Realized Vol: 29.5% EVRP: +108.2% (HIGH RISK) Options pricing 4.7x the recent volatility. Significant risk premium embedded. IV SPREAD: BEARISH Call IV: 134.6% Put IV: 138.2% Spread: -3.62% Puts trading at a premium. Hedging demand visible. HISTORICAL MOVES (Last [--] Quarters) Q3 2025: 6.01% Q2 2025: 12.40% Q1 2025: 1.11% Q4 2024: 3.55% Avg 3-Year PMIE: 5.93% Options pricing 8.89% vs 5.93% historical - a 50%"
X Link 2026-02-10T20:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$TMUS - Signal Called It Before earnings: Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal flagged BEARISH After earnings: Down 4.32% pre-market. Expected Move: 5.65% Actual Move: -4.32% (within range) We said options were pricing a 56% premium to history while the stock traded calmly at 24% realized vol. Market knew something was coming. Two signals this morning. Two receipts. $HUM: Flagged BEARISH Down 6.51% $TMUS: Flagged BEARISH Down 4.32% We post every signal before the report. No hindsight. Just receipts. $TMUS - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tomorrow pre-market. Street estimate:"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"🟢 $MA 10-K JUST DROPPED Our team ran the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal on Mastercard's fresh filing. The Verdict: 5/6 BULLISH ✅ THE NUMBERS: Revenue: $32.8B (+16%) Net Income: $15.0B (+16%) Operating Income: $18.9B (+21%) Operating Cash Flow: $17.6B (+19%) Operating Margin: 58% THE SIGNAL: [--] of [--] categories bullish. Profitability operating trends earnings quality capital position and balance sheet all flashing green. One yellow flag: Valuation allowance increased 12%. Modest relative to their scale likely international tax positioning not earnings quality deterioration. THE INSIGHT:"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$MCD EARNINGS RISK SIGNAL REPORTS: Today Pre-Market Street EPS: $3.04 Expected Move: 2.27% ($7.34) ALPHATICA EARNINGS RISK SIGNAL: ATM IV: 49.6% 1-Week Realized Vol: 11.8% Alphatica Volatility Premium: +37.7% IV Spread: +2.22% (Calls at premium) Signal: HIGH RISK with BULLISH SKEW Options pricing 4x more volatility than recent action. Call buyers positioning for upside. CONTEXT: Last quarter: MISS -3.3% Avg 3-year move: 2.03% Last move: 0.83% Watch for: Options market expects a bigger move than recent history suggests. Bullish positioning despite last quarter's miss. $MCD"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$MCD- WE PREDICTED UP. AND THE STOCK IS UP $MCD Q4 [----] RESULTS THE RESULTS: GAAP EPS: $3.03 vs $3.04 est = MISS by $0.01 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.12 vs $3.04 est = BEAT +2.6% Revenue: $7.01B (+10% YoY) Stock: UP 1.93% ✅ RISK SIGNAL CALLED IT: We said: BULLISH SKEW (calls at premium IV spread +2.22%) Result: Stock UP nearly 2% The options market was right. Despite the technical GAAP miss buyers were positioned correctly. WHY THE STOCK IS UP: Global comp sales +5.7% (crushed expectations) U.S. comp sales +6.8% (massive turnaround from -1.4% last year) Systemwide sales +11% Dividend raised 5%"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$CSCO Q2 FY2026 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $1.02 (Non-GAAP) Street Revenue: $15.12B Guidance: EPS $1.01-$1.03 Revenue $15.0B-$15.2B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $1.03 Revenue: $15.15B INITIAL STOCK REACTION: DOWN OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ 8-quarter beat streak. Street is dead-center of guidance. This company doesn't miss. THE PATTERN: Beat Streak: [--] Quarters Lifetime Beat Rate: 86.5% (103 of [---] quarters) Recent 8Q: 100% beat rate Avg Surprise: +2.7% Recent History: Q1 FY26: BEAT +2.0% ($1.00 vs $0.98) Q4 FY25: BEAT +1.0% ($0.99 vs $0.98) Q3 FY25: BEAT +4.3% ($0.96"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$CSCO Q2 FY2026 RESULTS THE RECEIPTS WE SAID: BEAT ✅ RESULT: BEAT ✅ ALPHATICA vs STREET: EPS: Alphatica: $1.03 Street: $1.02 Actual: $1.04 Alphatica Error: 0.96% Street Error: 1.92% Revenue: Alphatica: $15.15B Street: $15.12B Actual: $15.3B Alphatica Error: 0.98% Street Error: 1.18% We beat the Street on both metrics. THE RESULTS: Non-GAAP EPS: $1.04 vs $1.02 est = BEAT +2% Revenue: $15.3B (RECORD) = BEAT +1.2% Networking: +21% YoY AI Infrastructure orders: $2.1B GUIDANCE RAISED: FY26 Revenue: $61.2B-$61.7B (up from $60.2B-$61.0B) Stock: DOWN 4.2% WHY DOWN ON A BEAT Valuation. We flagged it"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Heavy institutional footprints in $AVGO today 🐳 🔥 7.71M shares moved quietly off-exchange That's 34.5% of total volume $2.63B in notional value [---] massive block prints ( $1M each) Top level: $343 with $192.27M across [--] prints Key reminder: Dark pools are directionless we can't tell if this is aggressive buying selling or hedging. Are institutions loading up ahead of something big or taking profits Whats your read $AVGO #darkpool $SPY $QQQ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021740884627186094 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021740884627186094"
X Link 2026-02-12T00:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"We scanned 43500+ whale trades across $MSFT $ORCL $CRM $NOW $IGV and $DUOL over the last [--] days. Every single ticker deteriorated. 90-day view: Net +$6.5B institutional buying at 51% buy flow 60-day view: Net +$5.9B at 52% 30-day view: Net $13.6B at 42% But is the selling over Here's the bull vs bear case. THE BEAR CASE: The 30-day window is the leading edge not the climax. Software multiples are compressing rates staying higher AI capex ROI disappointing guidance cuts incoming. The 90-day accumulation was smart money being wrong early. Now they're correcting. MSFT flipped from +$10.5B net"
X Link 2026-02-12T02:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SPY MORNING - Selling Into CPI Current: $689.26 (-0.5% from yesterday's close) CPI tomorrow. Market is de-risking. DELTA - MMs NEARLY FLAT Net Delta: MMs short just 1M shares Yesterday: Short 11-14M shares Positioning is the lightest we've seen. Neither side committed. GAMMA - ACCELERATOR ZONE We're sitting in negative gamma territory. Everything below $694 is accelerators: $690: -$186M 🚀 right here $689: -$143M 🚀 $688: -$65M 🚀 $687: -$53M 🚀 $686: -$69M 🚀 $685: -$222M 🚀 $680: -$124M 🚀 $675: -$191M 🚀 MAGNETS START AT $694 $694: +$31M 🧲 $695: +$41M 🧲 $696: +$90M 🧲 $697: +$66M 🧲"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Context: What's $170/oz on a $5000 asset That's a 3.5% move. In [--] minutes yes. But gold is up 40%+ in the last year. This is volatility not a reversal. What actually matters: Central banks still accumulating Dollar strength/weakness trajectory Geopolitical hedging demand Real rates at 1.8% - positive but moderate by historical standards A 3.5% pullback after a historic run isn't "breaking" - it's normal price discovery. Gold crossed $5000 for the first time ever recently. It pulled back. That's what assets do at round numbers. Wake me up if it loses $4500. That's structure. This is noise."
X Link 2026-02-12T16:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting timing. Last night we showed $13.6B in net institutional selling across software over [--] days while the 90-day and 60-day windows were still net positive. Something changed in the last [--] days. Here's what else changed: over that same window this platform discovered Claude. We have been collecting the posts specific to Go back [--] days on X and Claude barely registered. Scroll through the last [--] days and it's everywhere threads comparing it to GPT developers sharing workflows entire communities forming around it. That's not a coincidence. Institutions move before narratives go"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"🟢 $HUBB 10-K JUST DROPPED Our team ran the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal on Hubbell's fresh filing. The Verdict: 6/6 BULLISH ✅ Clean sweep. Every category green. Valuation allowance dropped 42% ($34M $20M). Management released $14M of reserves they're telling you they expect to realize more of their deferred tax assets. This only happens when they're confident about future profitability. THE NUMBERS: Revenue: $5.84B (+4%) Operating Income: $1.21B (+11%) Net Income: $892M (+14%) EPS: $16.54 (+15%) Operating Cash Flow: $1.03B (+4%) THE INSIGHT: Operating income grew 11% on just 4% revenue"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The crickets are always loudest before they scramble. Burry dropped [-----] words on $PLTR this morning - the $4B in losses the $1.1B Karp options grant the DPO structure. $SPY down 1% into CPI. The structure we flagged this morning - MMs flipped long 46M shares accelerators stacked to $650 2.6:1 put skew into tomorrow's print. Financial media doesn't lead. It follows. And right now it's not even doing that. The man who called [----] is posting receipts in real time. Crickets. 🤣 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022067893341454622 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022067893341454622"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"⚠ $COIN 10-K JUST DROPPED Our team ran the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal on Coinbase's fresh filing. The Verdict: 3/6 NEUTRAL ⚠ Mixed signals. Here's what the numbers show: THE CRYPTO SWING: FY2024: +$687M gain on crypto investments FY2025: -$529M loss on crypto investments That's a $1.2B swing below the line. THE NUMBERS: Revenue: $7.18B (+9%) ✅ Operating Income: $1.44B (-38%) ❌ Net Income: $1.26B (-51%) ❌ Operating Cash Flow: $2.43B (-22%) ❌ Valuation Allowance: $135M (+9%) ✅ THE OPERATING PROBLEM: OpEx surged 35% while revenue grew 9%. S&M up 62% ($654M $1059M) G&A up 25% ($1.3B $1.6B)"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"🧵 ALPHATICA PREDICTION TRACKER (PINNED) We post predictions BEFORE earnings. We post receipts AFTER. January [----] Scorecard: $NFLX Q4: 98.2% EPS accuracy $WFC Q4: 1.1% error vs Street 5.7% $AAPL Q1: 3.2% error vs Street 6.0% $GE Q4: Within $0.02 called sell-off $RTX Q4: Off by one penny $MA Q4: Called +12.3% beat $V Q4: Beat Street both metrics $CAT Q4: Called +11.2% beat [--] for [--] on direction. Beat Street accuracy on [--] of [--]. Institutional-quality quantitative insights. Robust trading strategies for every trader. Sign up for weekly predictions signals & strategies ALPHATICA brought to you by"
X Link 2026-02-01T01:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$AXP Update ALPHATICA EARNINGS QUALITY SCORE: BULLISH ✅ 6/6 Wall Street just cut price targets on American Express. Our team went through the 10-K and the data today. We disagree. The analyst concerns: Regulatory risk (10% rate cap) Rising customer engagement costs Margin pressure What the data shows: ✅ Loan provisions only +1.4% YoY ✅ Tax efficiency improving (+25% in credits) ✅ Restructuring reserves declining ✅ VA/DTA ratio stable at 13% ✅ Credit quality "best in class" This is the difference between headline risk and fundamental health. Wall Street prices in fear. Record $72B revenue."
X Link 2026-02-07T01:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SPY MORNING - Structure Holds Current: $693.65 (+0.4%) DELTA - MMs STILL SHORT Net Delta: MMs short 32M shares They buy dips to stay hedged. Bid remains supported. GAMMA - MAGNETS ABOVE ACCELERATORS BELOW $694: +$93M 🧲 $695: +$154M 🧲 $696: +$118M 🧲 $697: +$89M 🧲 $700: +$192M 🧲 biggest magnet Path to $700 remains clear. ACCELERATORS BELOW $685: -$153M 🚀 $680: -$97M 🚀 $675: -$143M 🚀 $670: -$122M 🚀 CALL FLOW PICKING UP Call Vol/OI: 25.3% vs Put Vol/OI: 9.4% Calls trading nearly 3x the rate of puts this morning. NTM Call Vol: 1.04M vs NTM Put Vol: 780K THE SETUP Friday: MMs flipped"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"CTAs selling into buyback windows. Goldman just told you the setup: Sellers: CTAs dumping $800M to $11B mechanically regardless of fundamentals. Buyers: 65% of companies in open buyback windows (75% by Friday). Activity up 40% week-over-week. Forced systematic selling meeting corporate bid. This is why selloffs keep getting bought. Four dips in three months. Four recoveries. CTAs follow rules. Corporates follow price. When your stock gets cheaper you buy more of it. Thats not sentiment. Thats capital allocation. Flow says bid is supported. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021213454103634321"
X Link 2026-02-10T13:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Flow says up. $SPY: MMs short 34M shares. They buy dips to hedge. Magnets stacked $696-$700. $QQQ: [---] is the inflection. Above it magnets pull to $625-$630. The compression is real. But when it breaks follow the positioning: MMs short = buy dips Magnets above = price gets pulled higher CTAs selling into corporate buyback windows Four selloffs in three months. Four recoveries. Every dip gets bought. Compression resolves in the direction of flow. Flow says bid is supported. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021282237027672237 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021282237027672237"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$GILD EARNINGS: RISK SIGNAL NAILED IT RESULT: Stock DOWN 8%+ WHAT WE SAID: Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Expected Move: 4.68% Historical Avg Move: Under 1% "GILD typically doesn't move much on earnings. Last [--] quarters averaged under 1%. Something has to give. Either options are overpriced or tonight breaks the pattern." WHAT HAPPENED: Down 8%+ Something gave. The pattern broke. THE NUMBERS: Expected Move: 4.68% Actual Move: 8%+ Historical Avg: 1% Move was nearly 2x the expected. 8x the historical average. THE SIGNAL WORKED: Called BEARISH Down 8% ✅ Called HIGH RISK Massive move ✅"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HUM - Signal Called It Before earnings: Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal flagged BEARISH After earnings: Down 6.51% pre-market. Expected Move: 8.89% Actual Move: -6.51% (within range) Both signals aligned: ✓ HIGH RISK EVRP ✓ BEARISH IV Spread We said the market is bracing for impact. Market was right. We flag. We dont trade. But the signal works. $HUM - Alphatica Earnings Risk Signal: BEARISH Reporting tomorrow pre-market. Street estimate: -$4.01 Current: $182.45 VOLATILITY METRICS Expected Move: 8.89% ($16.22) ATM IV: 137.7% 1-Week Realized Vol: 29.5% EVRP: +108.2% (HIGH RISK) Options pricing"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"🟢 $SYK 10-K JUST DROPPED Our team ran the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal on Stryker's fresh filing. The Verdict: 6/6 BULLISH ✅ Clean sweep. Every category green. THE NUMBERS: Revenue: $25.1B (+11%) Operating Income: $4.9B (+33%) Net Income: $3.2B (+8%) Operating Cash Flow: $5.0B (+19%) Operating Margin: 19.5% (+320 bps) THE DATA: Management is telling you they expect to realize more of their deferred tax assets. THE INSIGHT: When the tax footnote and the impairment line both improve materially in the same year the filings are telling you something the headline isn't."
X Link 2026-02-11T17:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Two stories in one report. The bad: [----] was revised down hard. [------] jobs initially reported [------] after benchmark revisions. CNBC That's a 70% haircut. Last year was already the weakest year of employment gains outside of a recession since [----] but the gains now average just [-----] per month CNN after revisions. The good: January showed a strong rebound with payrolls beating forecasts CNN - [------] vs [-----] expected. Unemployment dropped to 4.3%. Here's what matters: The [----] weakness wasn't hidden. In September the preliminary revision inferred that the US economy likely added about 911000"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The structure has been public since October. Meta keeps 20% equity Blue Owl owns 80% $27B in debt held by PIMCO and BlackRock through an SPV. Short-term lease renewals keep it off the balance sheet. WSJ's Jonathan Weil - the reporter who first challenged Enron's accounting - has been skeptical since November calling the treatment "too good to be true." Now EY is flagging it. When the auditor who signs off on the books raises concerns about the same structure that the reporter who broke Enron is questioning. that's worth watching. The $27B is real. The question is whether the accounting"
X Link 2026-02-11T19:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$APP Q4 FY2025 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $2.94 Street Revenue: $1.61B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $2.98 Revenue: $1.63B INITIAL STOCK REACTION: DOWN OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ 5-quarter beat streak with explosive growth. Quality signal at 5/6 BULLISH. But Q4 is historically their worst quarter and options are pricing bearish skew. THE PATTERN: Beat Rate: 75% (6 of [--] quarters) Last Quarter: BEAT +0.8% Beat Streak: [--] quarters Recent History: Q3 2025: BEAT +0.8% ($2.55 vs $2.53) Q2 2025: BEAT +7.3% ($2.49 vs $2.32) Q1 2025: BEAT +16.0% ($1.67 vs $1.44) Q4 2024: BEAT"
X Link 2026-02-11T20:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$APP - The Signal Saw It Coming We called: BEAT ✓ Result: Beat their 5th straight quarter Stock reaction: Down 14% But we also flagged: IV Spread: -3.6% (puts at premium) Signal: HIGH RISK with BEARISH SKEW Options market was positioned for downside even on a beat. Thats what bearish skew means. Two signals. Both right. 1.Earnings prediction: BEAT ✓ 2.Risk signal: Bearish skew ✓ The number wasnt the story. The positioning was. $APP Q4 FY2025 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $2.94 Street Revenue: $1.61B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $2.98 Revenue: $1.63B INITIAL"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SYK 6/6 BULLISH. Up 4% since we posted. Our data told the story before the price did. 🟢 $SYK 10-K JUST DROPPED Our team ran the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal on Stryker's fresh filing. The Verdict: 6/6 BULLISH ✅ Clean sweep. Every category green. THE NUMBERS: Revenue: $25.1B (+11%) Operating Income: $4.9B (+33%) Net Income: $3.2B (+8%) Operating Cash https://t.co/S7hyX6slWE 🟢 $SYK 10-K JUST DROPPED Our team ran the Alphatica Earnings Quality Signal on Stryker's fresh filing. The Verdict: 6/6 BULLISH ✅ Clean sweep. Every category green. THE NUMBERS: Revenue: $25.1B (+11%) Operating"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$SPY MIDDAY - Accelerators Triggered Current: $684.50 (-0.7% from open) Broke $689. Now in the accelerator zone. DELTA - MMs FLIPPED LONG Morning: MMs short 1M shares (nearly flat) Now: MMs LONG 47M shares Massive shift. MMs are now selling rallies not buying dips. GAMMA - SITTING IN ACCELERATORS $685: -$237M 🚀 just above us $680: -$162M 🚀 $675: -$231M 🚀 $670: -$148M 🚀 $665: -$81M 🚀 $660: -$98M 🚀 $650: -$110M 🚀 Accelerators stack all the way down. No magnets until $700 (+$88M) which is now 2.3% away. FLOW CONFIRMS NTM Call OI: -8.6% NTM Put OI: +3.0% Put volume outpacing calls. Hedging"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SPY AFTERNOON - Accelerators in Control Current: $683.88 (-0.8% from open) Selling accelerating into the close. CPI positioning in full effect. DELTA - MMs MASSIVELY LONG Morning: MMs short 1M shares (nearly flat) Now: MMs LONG 64M shares This is the biggest shift we've seen. MMs are not supporting this market - they're selling into every bounce. GAMMA - ACCELERATOR WALL BELOW $685: -$235M 🚀 just above us $680: -$181M 🚀 $675: -$244M 🚀 biggest accelerator $670: -$160M 🚀 $665: -$87M 🚀 $660: -$107M 🚀 $650: -$117M 🚀 No magnets until $700 (+$77M) - now 2.4% away and fading. FLOW CONFIRMS"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Flow confirms. $685: -$235M accelerator $680: -$181M accelerator $675: -$244M biggest on the board You're right about the $685 retest setup. If it rejects there the accelerator stack below is brutal. What's changed since this morning: MMs flipped from short 1M shares to LONG 64M shares. They're not buying dips anymore - they're selling rallies. First magnet doesn't show up until $700 (+$77M) and that's fading. Tomorrow's CPI expiration tells the story: 827K put OI vs 315K call OI. Market is hedged for hot. $685 rejection = accelerators take over. $675 break = it gets ugly fast. $SPY"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$AMAT Q1 FY2026 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $2.21 Street Revenue: $6.88B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $2.24 Revenue: $6.92B INTITAL STOCK REACTION: DOWN OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ [--] straight beats. 100% beat rate last [--] quarters. The streak is remarkable - but everything else flashes caution. THE PATTERN: Beat Rate: 100% (8 of [--] quarters) Last Quarter: BEAT +2.4% Beat Streak: [--] quarters Recent History: Q4 2025: BEAT +2.4% ($2.17 vs $2.12) Q3 2025: BEAT +5.1% ($2.48 vs $2.36) Q2 2025: BEAT +3.5% ($2.39 vs $2.31) Q1 2025: BEAT +3.5% ($2.38 vs $2.30) Avg Surprise:"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$ANET reports Q4 [----] tonight after the bell. THE SETUP: Street expects $0.76 EPS $2.39B revenue Management guided $2.30B-$2.40B Street sitting at TOP of guidance range THE STREAK: [--] consecutive quarters of beats That's EVERY quarter since their [----] IPO 100% beat rate. Zero misses. THE PATTERN: Recent surprises: +5.6% +12.3% +10.2% +14.0% Avg surprise last 4Q: +10.5% If history holds: $0.84 actual vs $0.76 street OUR ESTIMATES: EPS: $0.78 (vs $0.76 street) Revenue: $2.42B (vs $2.39B street) INITIAL STOCK REACTION: DOWN Call: BEAT ✅ ALPHATICA EARNINGS RISK SIGNAL: Expected Move: 10.1%"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$ANET Q4 2025: THE RECEIPTS 🧾 THE CALL: BEAT ✅ THE STREAK: [--] QUARTERS AND COUNTING WHAT WE SAID: EPS: $0.78 Revenue: $2.42B WHAT THEY REPORTED: EPS: $0.82 (+7.9% surprise) Revenue: $2.488B (+4.1% surprise) THE SCORECARD: Estimate Actual Error Street EPS: $0.76 $0.82 7.3% ALPHATICA: $0.78 $0.82 4.9% ✅ Street Rev: $2.39B $2.49B 3.9% ALPHATICA: $2.42B $2.49B 2.7% ✅ We beat Street on BOTH metrics. THE HEADLINES: Revenue +29% YoY First quarter EVER over $1B net income FY2025: $9B revenue (+29%) Q1 guidance: $2.6B (street was at $2.47B) RISK SIGNAL CHECK: We said: BEARISH SKEW (puts at premium)"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"🟢 $AMAT EARNINGS JUST DROPPED THE SETUP: Street EPS: $2.21 Street Revenue: $6.88B ALPHATICA ESTIMATES: EPS: $2.24 Revenue: $6.92B THE RESULT: EPS: $2.38 ✅ BEAT Revenue: $7.01B ✅ BEAT OUR CALL: BEAT INITIAL REACTION: DOWN: REACTION: UP The $253M legal settlement scared traders. Non-GAAP told the real story: 30% operating margin record DRAM revenue +91% free cash flow. Q2 guidance: $7.65B revenue $2.64 EPS. AI capex accelerating. Receipts posted http://alphatica.io $AMAT Q1 FY2026 EARNINGS PREVIEW REPORTS: Today Post-Market THE SETUP: Street EPS: $2.21 Street Revenue: $6.88B ALPHATICA"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Gold is down 3.5% and this person just invented a fictional Russia-US deal to explain it. What actually happened: Gold ran 40%+ in a year and hit $5000. It pulled back. Thats what assets do at round numbers. The de-dollarization narrative is over because of a deal that doesnt exist Theres no announcement. No confirmation. No source. Just a bullet point wish list dressed up as breaking news. Russia pivoting back to USD would require: Unwinding sanctions infrastructure SWIFT reconnection Congressional approval Actual diplomacy None of that happened in the last [--] minutes. Ive called every"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
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