#  @abroninvestor Andrew Brown Dynastic Investor ๐ฆ๐บ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Andrew Brown Dynastic Investor ๐ฆ๐บ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ posts on X about $aptax, $mfgax, investment, in the the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::303643375/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] -35% - [--] Month [------] +35% - [--] Months [-------] +19% - [--] Year [-------] -50% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::303643375/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] -23% - [--] Month [--] -42% - [--] Months [---] -20% - [--] Year [---] +1.70% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::303643375/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.39% - [--] Month [-----] +0.69% - [--] Months [-----] +3.40% - [--] Year [-----] +9% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::303643375/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [stocks](/list/stocks) [countries](/list/countries) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [premier league](/list/premier-league) [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands) [social networks](/list/social-networks) **Social topic influence** [$aptax](/topic/$aptax), [$mfgax](/topic/$mfgax), [investment](/topic/investment), [in the](/topic/in-the), [$bolpa](/topic/$bolpa), [if you](/topic/if-you), [australia](/topic/australia), [business](/topic/business), [debt](/topic/debt), [money](/topic/money) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@east72dynasty](/creator/undefined) [@ignore89039500](/creator/undefined) [@foxcastlehold](/creator/undefined) [@ausbiztv](/creator/undefined) [@claudedwalker](/creator/undefined) [@equitymates](/creator/undefined) [@financialreview](/creator/undefined) [@88888saccount](/creator/undefined) [@albomp](/creator/undefined) [@downundervalue](/creator/undefined) [@scutty](/creator/undefined) [@manutd](/creator/undefined) [@ianslaterphoto1](/creator/undefined) [@east72holdings](/creator/undefined) [@puppyeh1](/creator/undefined) [@lachlanbjensen](/creator/undefined) [@berthonjones](/creator/undefined) [@rodneyforrest00](/creator/undefined) [@adegranvilliers](/creator/undefined) [@johnhempton](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Virtu Financial, Inc. Class A (VIRT)](/topic/$virt) [MANCHESTER UNITED PLC (MANU)](/topic/$manu) [Aercap Holdings N.V. (AER)](/topic/$aer) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [News Corp Class B (NWS)](/topic/$nws) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/$ms) [Ferrari N.V. (RACE)](/topic/$race) [GammaSwap (GS)](/topic/$gs) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "East [--] Holdings December [----] Quarterly features a small update on Manchester United PLC but a feature on a new holding in which many have an interest - long or short. Magellan Financial (ASX; MFG) where we have dug into a https://lnkd.in/gstza-xk https://lnkd.in/g9CMQ-Rr https://lnkd.in/gstza-xk https://lnkd.in/g9CMQ-Rr" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1611319123904167936) 2023-01-06T11:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$NWS $FOXA This is why you don't read @guardian for finance. @janemartinson writes a piece dissecting the value of $NWS & completely omits ANY MENTION of its most valuable asset 61% of REA Group LISTED in Australia is worth US$12billion at current share price - 3x Harper Collins. Easily fungible. https://www.theguardian.com/media/2025/feb/22/were-clearly-heading-towards-collapse-why-the-murdoch-empire-is-about-to-go-bang https://www.theguardian.com/media/2025/feb/22/were-clearly-heading-towards-collapse-why-the-murdoch-empire-is-about-to-go-bang" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1893366339454312555) 2025-02-22T18:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So the deal to sell AMP Life by $AMP.AX was so bad that when it's all but called off due by a "left field" interlocutor the shares FALL 10%. Interesting. "CrapCo" spin-off a la $S32.AX may not be the worst outcome - subject to capital requirements which may be the issue" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1150562028102156288) 2019-07-15T00:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is the UK. Obviously we know it's the same deal in Australia too. $TAH.AX $CWN.AX $SCR.AX https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jan/02/gambling-report-shows-industrys-reliance-on-loss-making-customers https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jan/02/gambling-report-shows-industrys-reliance-on-loss-making-customers" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1212836236643069952) 2020-01-02T20:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Not saying $TSLA can't go utterly & totally parabolic but there are differences with $VOW.DE https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day-Volkswagen-briefly-conquered-the-world/ https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day-Volkswagen-briefly-conquered-the-world/" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1224571310845517825) 2020-02-04T05:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "If this article is even half right (& it's very kind) $NAB.AX shareholders should be utterly outraged that Thorburn was going to (try and) shoe-in a fellow parishioner over other talent at NAB. No wonder Drummond - who leaves both for dead - buggered off. https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/inside-mike-baird-s-decision-to-quit-nab-20200305-p5473c https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/inside-mike-baird-s-decision-to-quit-nab-20200305-p5473c" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1235384268336926725) 2020-03-05T01:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@ValorWealth My extreme measure is $GPT.AX. You start [----] with NTA of $3.86. October [--] 1-1 at 60c May [--] another 1-1 at 35c So you end up with [--] shares and NTA of 71c (after devals) = $2.84 having invested total of $1.30. Of course the shares go from a massive NTA premium to discount" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1242658653187887105) 2020-03-25T03:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Stonk warning. "small start up distress." $ALU.AX" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1259994186436055040) 2020-05-11T23:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@John_Hempton @simonahac @AngusTaylorMP Some got out in time to the wood ducks $TLS.AX" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1263283701078650880) 2020-05-21T01:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Having seen the new Chair of $TAH.AX in his role as Austock Chair between November [----] - May 2012.wouldn't be my choice" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1286107150998056961) 2020-07-23T01:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "We (I have had collusion in this idea) have come up with the solution to $AMP.AX woes. A witchdoctor at Alfred Street https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-02/world-cup-2018-socceroos-and-the-witchdoctor-curse/9825008 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-02/world-cup-2018-socceroos-and-the-witchdoctor-curse/9825008" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1297688846075715584) 2020-08-24T00:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3/n costs" when they are aiming to grow globally. By the time you strip fx gains capitalised software & line the rent up a more realistic EBITDA result is a loss of $41.6million up from $33.3m. Interestingly lifetime impairments are $195m + $34m of debt recovery costs" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1300633052280807424) 2020-09-01T03:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@JuddHarvey1 2/n by the time we get to month [--] I am paying more cash out than the P&L charge. The cash payments in CF statement now go under "financing" like our $APT.AX mates. Depreciation of the right of use asset is excluded from EBITDA which is hence inflated versus just paying cash" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1300663516915855362) 2020-09-01T05:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@RhinoTroy @FinancialReview Obviously arose from my thread today. I had a wonderful (& successful) time with great people for 3.5years at $AMP.AX & it makes me so so sad to see it now. Not a hatchet job - more a lost lament of what should have been" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1303287549801033728) 2020-09-08T11:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I wondered when someone was going to document the GPG connection to $APT.AX - once again it fell to @johnnyshap - excellent yarn" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1341472275564879872) 2020-12-22T19:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Saintly96 @10footinvestor @galumay 1/2 p(bank) = p/TBV = f(ROE). Good to start with decent NIM + Ok fees keep costs low (digitise) + lend to the right people. Don't gear too hard (TA/TBV) - benefit in $KSL is ability to analyse in old fashioned way for time being" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1341508866979184640) 2020-12-22T22:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Companies like $APX.AX & $WTC.AX that give "underlying EBITDA" guidance in whatever currency provide you with nothing that is useful. If they gave capitalised R&D estimates even if they leave you to figure rent then at least you have numbers that can be discounted/capitalised" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1364435691019530240) 2021-02-24T04:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "You have to hand it to Matrix. $100k into an effective $1.1billion in [--] years. Beats Sydney real estate. $APT.AX" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1364754154694959105) 2021-02-25T01:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@CapitalLutra @88888sAccount You blokes are too young. This is Wigmores tractors and BHP" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1398108163610583040) 2021-05-28T02:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Assume $PME.AX is a new favourite of r/wallstreetbets" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1407865416253206529) 2021-06-24T00:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "/3 Maybe's: $Z1P.AX $APX.AX $ANN.AX $GWA.AX and the obvious one $LLC.AX I didn't give @AnnetteBeacher much chance to interrogate me (apols Annette) in order to get the narrative in 10minutes" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1424911098998792195) 2021-08-10T01:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$MFG.AX think we know what's coming on Mon/Tue - a Xmas box with a ๐ฉ in it. That's more than the 10% off fum (15 if it is $STJ.LN). The multiple will contract as well so the -ve quintuple whammy is on. Teens No position. Still planking. It's hard turning a sliding FM" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1472157281475186688) 2021-12-18T10:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@DownunderValue So where does leave the two guys who own 21% of $MFG.AX - no board seats no day to day once George starts For sure Chris is located there & has trusted board allies. No matter how talented do the founders become "bad smells" second guessers etc" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1524245111647141889) 2022-05-11T04:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The amount of spoofing in microcaps on $ASX.AX is just unbelievable. If some clown at the exchange thinks this encourages liquidity they are kidding. It's obviously HFTs doing things which are bona fide spoofing nothing else. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=jmg2uZ-8XOY https://www.youtube.com/watchv=jmg2uZ-8XOY" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1540177791257219072) 2022-06-24T03:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@10footinvestor See my past comments on $PTM.AX don't know if it's a short but it's certainly a melting ice-cube. IMHO I don't believe board or management are shareholder friendly other than to those who work there & have scads of shares & will take dividends forever until they can't" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1571044596054130688) 2022-09-17T07:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@LouiChristopher @cjoye Dexus disclose incentives each quarter - low was 11% late [----]. Last [--] quarters bobbled around 29%. Point with $DXS.AX is equity at least starting to reflect these issues" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1589101306622644224) 2022-11-06T03:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Wonder how $PPT.AX shareholders feel about not being able to vote on 90% of current shares being issued to $PDL.AX shareholders. The sheer arrogance of this board in torching shareholders money nor building in adequate safeguards to the offer for Pendal is mind numbing" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1593054646482120704) 2022-11-17T01:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A different take on $MFG.AX highlighting a few forgotten aspects and some inherent option value. A propitious morning to read perhaps. (or not) @East72Holdings December quarterly report released this morning. Main featured security: $MFG.AX https://t.co/rgfns2kJRB @East72Holdings December quarterly report released this morning. Main featured security: $MFG.AX https://t.co/rgfns2kJRB" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1611155680597270529) 2023-01-06T00:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DaVinciCapital Think you are talking $BOL.AX not $BOL.PA - big difference" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1631479048789700609) 2023-03-03T02:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@portseacapital $BHP.AX but differently by selling off crapcos that were reinvented- but you MUST spin off stuff to make SoTP actually happen. $VOW.DE has actually gone backwards since a great value adding spin off" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1640511550489522177) 2023-03-28T00:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$VOW3.DE good article (which will translate) about changes under CEO Blume https://www.deraktionaer.de/nachricht/vw-chef-blume-greift-weiter-durch-grosse-aufgaben-bleiben-299390.html https://www.deraktionaer.de/nachricht/vw-chef-blume-greift-weiter-durch-grosse-aufgaben-bleiben-299390.html" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1675549080255332352) 2023-07-02T16:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "10% stake in $UMG.AS worth 4.5billion - virtually identical to the sum of unconsolidated 60% $MMB.PA (WILL be consolidated in B/S by 31/12/23) 32.6% $MCG.JO plus 17% $TIT.MI 20% $FLE.AS 24% (voting) $MFEA.MI 1% $TEF.MC 11.8% 26% Viu 2/7 http://PRS.MC http://PRS.MC" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1731913929625124936) 2023-12-05T05:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Those 100% businesses dominated by Canal+ Havas. In [----] should see "parent" $BOL.PA emerge with 6bn+ of liquidity so it has options. For VIV refinancing of $MMB.PA & potential asset sales will examine $MCG.JO more closely but would need 1.1billion to buy remaining 67% 4/7" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1731913934473691478) 2023-12-05T05:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@East72Dynasty monthly NTA out yesterday - $ODET.PA discount widening slightly irritating but it will fix itself in due course we believe. Not said is the myriad of "under the radar" opportunities out there at present at massive discounts to real value - portfolio construction probably the most difficult aspect at present to keep stock numbers sensible. https://east72.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Feb-24-template.pdf https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764780354135896389 https://east72.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Feb-24-template.pdf https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764780354135896389" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1764780354135896389) 2024-03-04T22:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@IMFletcher70 Coal controllers buy $PTM.AX perhaps" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1772844904605254013) 2024-03-27T04:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "My favourite picture of the year. $BOL.PA $ODET.PA $VIV.PA $UMG.AS $MMB.PA $CBDG.PA $FMONC.PA $ARTO.PA $MLTRA.PA $MLCVG.PA $FORE.PA" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1791336380196704320) 2024-05-17T05:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$BOL.PA - we simplified for you on @ausbiztv this morning. No need to be frightened but if you want the three hour spiel I can oblige (for a "small" fee)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1795292709521183090) 2024-05-28T03:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@toobyrox No. The assets are cash $UMG.AS and $VIV.PA. Clearly Vivendi is potentially most at risk but again the assets are global as well as French" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1812076130398290224) 2024-07-13T10:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@inkulhelt They are totally illiquid and there are significant discounts in $BOL.PA and $ODET.PA The Rivaud stocks are all of the ones "below" Bollore on the organisational chart of which Bollore took effective control on [--] September [----] (this chart from March 1997)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1812077120031715375) 2024-07-13T10:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$DRR.AX Whoops. Tough timing. Think this slide might need updating. Your $15m a year going on pretty powerpoint" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1830753040644874321) 2024-09-02T23:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@zabeelcap @puppyeh1 $ILU.AX have 20% & the rest are mainly passive funds. Being a director of $DRR.AX is the best gig in town - if you don't have a conscience" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1830908850687639582) 2024-09-03T10:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@nyhedge I have bodyguards called Arnault and Qatar. The buyers may well be ALHG but there may be an alternative like a split/spin of the two main $MMB.PA businesses" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1890593350450827741) 2025-02-15T02:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@castrobeiras @Reignots @SpecSitsCapMgmt Ah yes. They will need the money to sort out the mess that is Louis Hachette structure & get rid of Agache & Qatar from $MMB.PA. 40+ a share would help. No squeeze out" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1903830215333150811) 2025-03-23T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$NWS very logical in the end - but won't really solve the discounts. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/business/media/murdoch-family-trust-succession-deal.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/business/media/murdoch-family-trust-succession-deal.html" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1965184926351016408) 2025-09-08T22:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$MANU The world's ugliest cash flow statement. No wonder the shares fell 7%+ NET player spend over [--] years is 1.2billion (that's out the door exclduing what they still owe) and net debt despite Sir Jim is 551m - after another 130million drawdown and despite 238mn of new equity over two years. That's effectively been urinated away. The catch up in capex is notable & the stadium is yet to come. Ignore the rubbish about "adjusted EBITDA" - football accounting is about CASH. This is pitiful when you look at the quality sponsors and revenues. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1968481092832477225" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1968481092832477225) 2025-09-18T01:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Ever since I wrote about $MANU as a value trap the team has started playing better football (Sunday was really good) winning & the stock is up 23% on sketchy takeover speculation. ๐ค๐ค" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1980452117166121024) 2025-10-21T01:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "About time @ManUtd $MANU faced up to the fact Wilcox and Uncle Jim's crew of INEOS managers aren't up to it. Look at the assets the club has out on loan let alone the sale of the Serie A player of the year for 2024/25. That's aside from the questionable managerial appointments. At least @CelticFC moved on their Wilcox equivalent as well as the manager. We can only dream about what Sheikh Jassim might have done - by looking across the city. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008321416689787004 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008321416689787004" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/2008321416689787004) 2026-01-05T23:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$MANU Financial disaster & none of them are in Europe" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/2010453509058257209) 2026-01-11T20:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@bowtiedstocks Why do you sell a new ICE car To get the annuity service revenue. With 6% of revenue from service its just a play on Arthur Daleys. Thats very low multiple earnings. Also accept EV service way lower and compromises the model. Plus Australian consumers pressured by CoL" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/2016237119841436137) 2026-01-27T19:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@1968Tv A favourite @SUFCOfficial team even though they weren't that good 12th in Div [--] but furthest been in FA Cup beat Macclesfield Stockport Millwall Sheff Wed to get here & would have got Leeds at home in QF if we won. Keegan was [--] in that game & had one more season at Scunny" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/2016250037169487973) 2026-01-27T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Valueinvest_ Think the twitterati reckons it's weird that $TSLA has a higher enterprise value (subject to adjustments you make I accept) than $VOW.DE - so they set out to find out why & if it's justified. At present they can't find in the affirmative" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1043382937633226752) 2018-09-22T06:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I've recently cancelled @australian because I'm fed up with lack of any balance & @value_investing because covering $LLC.AX is seeming beyond them. With shite like this masquerading as analysis @smh will be next on the list. Spare me. https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/the-graph-that-puts-falling-home-prices-in-perspective-20181204-p50k33.html https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/the-graph-that-puts-falling-home-prices-in-perspective-20181204-p50k33.html" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1069853996557320192) 2018-12-04T07:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Don't disagree with the end game on this Citi $AMP.AX valuation but have some very different ideas on the parts esp AMP Capital. If $AMP.AX sold 85% AMP Capital for $2.1bn that WOULD be something to rebel about. Would make $MQG.AX worth way less than $100" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1072643072419344384) 2018-12-12T00:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Dunno about this but do know that $MQG.AX peers have been eviscerated in December. $GS $AER $BX $KKR and don't trade on 14.5x P/E. Just saying. https://www.afr.com/business/expect-a-macquarie-50th-anniversary-deal-20181230-h19k31 https://www.afr.com/business/expect-a-macquarie-50th-anniversary-deal-20181230-h19k31" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1079842086424170496) 2018-12-31T20:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Aircraft leasing slide by $MQG.AX - same # [--] $AER $8billion commitments [----] aircraft (inc orders) $35bn portfolio size & [---] employees. P/E (exc asset sale profits) =7.7x (not 15) $MQG.AX are a third tier player AT THIS STAGE. There are opportunities given their share price" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1095130693741375488) 2019-02-12T01:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Last rant on $AMP.AX. $MQG.AX rightly gets kudos for excellent real asset mgt business. AMP has a smaller one ($43bn extnl AUM) but bloody good PLUS amazing Asian partnerships. Has a nice bank though needs some rework due broker biz. [--] questions at briefing. NOT ONE ON EITHER" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1095878295055265793) 2019-02-14T02:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$AMP.AX = 1.48x $APT.AX - first time below 1.5x. Two way madness IMHO. Act in haste repent at leisure. Two groups of folks with extremely cemented mindsets about these businesses & "valuations" that reflect that. Stand back and think is my advice" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1095891448853983234) 2019-02-14T03:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@John_Hempton $AMP.AX not a trade. Fundamental value investment obviously under water at present. Many offsetting thankfully AMP is [--] businesses one very valuable another less so post HRC one small one a naughty boy & a lump of capital. IMHO you pay $0 for NB $180m post tax but falling" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1095892745317576705) 2019-02-14T03:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@ASXTrader3 @John_Hempton Fee structures have been coming down but I agree some lower NW folks will be at the robo-level - no face to face. That's been a structural trend anyway. "Unintended consequences" as was noted in the $AMP.AX pressy citing MiFiD" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1095944948434620416) 2019-02-14T07:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I hope nobody is suggesting $APT.AX has the strength of business model of $XRO.AX https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/millennial-masterstroke-all-credit-to-afterpay-in-generation-grab-20190228-p510ws.html https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/millennial-masterstroke-all-credit-to-afterpay-in-generation-grab-20190228-p510ws.html" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1101750075355627520) 2019-03-02T07:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "15x earnings including copious amounts of assumed asset sale profits & leasing income which elsewhere is valued at single digit P/E https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/why-macquarie-is-undervalued/news-story/ca2045d42e9a2977b90c93c0cd7d7195 https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/why-macquarie-is-undervalued/news-story/ca2045d42e9a2977b90c93c0cd7d7195" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1120450501252980737) 2019-04-22T22:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "only $227million to go before peak insanity. $APT.AX $AMP.AX" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1123408834855235585) 2019-05-01T02:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$AER on 7.4x fwd earnings FYI.check $MQG.AX leasing income when the interim come out" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1123560973913051137) 2019-05-01T12:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@galumay I think $AER is undervalued but has its attendant risks (geared 3.5:1) . I think Clime are on drugs reckoning $MQG.AX is cheap at 15x [----] earnings; big quantum of profits are either low quality (P/E of [--] asset sales) or those which are given single digit P/E (leasing)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1123710166501867521) 2019-05-01T22:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Well. It's finally arrived. $APT.AX has a market cap higher than $AMP.AX $6.535 to $6.526billion. Hit it Mr. Minneapolis. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=rblt2EtFfC4 https://www.youtube.com/watchv=rblt2EtFfC4" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1123794617625993216) 2019-05-02T03:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@John_Hempton @timqfadvice At this rate I might be worthless before THEY get to be worthless.๐๐๐. Wondering which $APT.AX personality(ies) is/are on @John_Hempton "red flag" list.or indeed which $AMP.AX personnel" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1123795933144203265) 2019-05-02T03:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@FinancialReview $MQG.AX piece didn't age well Of $3.867bn pre tax b4 allocations [--] bonuses from profits there's $859m of perf. fees $1.55bn of "gains" net of ALL impairments and $2.8bn of trading income (+800m on 2018). Folks want u to pay 15x Short https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/macquarie-ceo-delivers-bullish-outlook-20190430-p51iha https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/macquarie-ceo-delivers-bullish-outlook-20190430-p51iha" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1124122207150493696) 2019-05-03T01:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Long $BOL.PA $ODET.PA IMHO a bit harsh; structure not unfathomable. However. Empire builder: Assessing Vincent Bollor via @TheEconomist https://www.economist.com/business/2019/05/30/assessing-vincent-bollore https://www.economist.com/business/2019/05/30/assessing-vincent-bollore" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1134725954830340096) 2019-06-01T07:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Ey oop. $MQG.AX Shemara & her mates taking over Hull's phone company (& major stadium sponsor). Wouldn't be wandering around in your suits on Bransholme Estate late at night. Macquarie swoops in on telecom group KCom with 563m bid https://t.co/H74RWMRJor Macquarie swoops in on telecom group KCom with 563m bid https://t.co/H74RWMRJor" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1135461195043860480) 2019-06-03T08:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "How embarrassing. Spin + (and so badly presented at that). This is a $36bn equity priced company. (Why stay at $TLS.AX when you get get seven real bricks a year while it stays solvent)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1138934515605229568) 2019-06-12T22:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@galumay @eadatt @Mal8511 @GregHoffman15 $XRO.AX used to do quarterly 4C's which you could blend with the six monthly numbers; enabled very accurate prediction of cash flow break even & made future prediction a bit easier. Their disclosure was/is excellent across markets to get ARPU costs LTV & CAC" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1139523230132142080) 2019-06-14T13:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/2 Interesting implication of the RBNZ $AMP.AX decision is that AMP balance sheet & legacy life expertise affords more protection to policyholders in NZ than Resolution Life. Is that consistent Will AMP NZ branch be forced into AMZ (NZ) separately capitalised" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1150615252112826368) 2019-07-15T03:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@crivvens 1/2 Couldn't agree more. This may presage the real bottom (dangerous thinking here) whereby they spin life (CrapCo) with a rights issue/placement to seperate & keep capitalised thereby enabling the FdF strategy on AMP to be enacted. Might work" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1151034417533657088) 2019-07-16T07:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Patience required but long $BOL.PA & $ODET.PA Posted a Bollore pitch on @SumZero Monday. The majority of it is about the music industry which has become the most important long-term driver of value for the company. https://t.co/agGeFtGOB4 https://t.co/BtyKHrJMa9 $SPOT $NFLX $VIVHY Posted a Bollore pitch on @SumZero Monday. The majority of it is about the music industry which has become the most important long-term driver of value for the company. https://t.co/agGeFtGOB4 https://t.co/BtyKHrJMa9 $SPOT $NFLX $VIVHY" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1151603017608601601) 2019-07-17T21:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Jake24807560 Blackrock substantials on $ALU.AX and $PME.AX suggest lemming-like buying IMHO" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1155669715169103872) 2019-07-29T02:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@eadatt Not sure $SOL.AX remember Exco with great affection. Name changed to Round Oak to protect the innocent" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1155786120476553220) 2019-07-29T10:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Sign of the times. $AAPL TTM EBITDA at end FY15 was $82.5bn; EV was $493bn so EV/EBITDA 6x; latest TTM EBITDA now only $76.5bn but EV=$813bn so EV/EBITDA= 10.5x despite no pft growth. Big rerate of service growth. Justified Net cash will go $100bn in Q4" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1156370236012056576) 2019-07-31T01:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "If buying $PME.AX now doesn't illustrate some of the craziness of indexing I don't know what does" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1156775045273812993) 2019-08-01T03:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$BEN.AX might be a trusted bank brand but you wouldn't trust their profit normalisations in a pink fit. Profit before bad debts (which are crazy low + business 90d+ nearly 2x) in reality down 9.5% (or is it 4%). Remediation is an ongoing charge not an abnormal" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1160716139040845824) 2019-08-12T00:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Peter_Fitz gets it right. I noted the other day gave up going to races [--] years ago after 30years due to sheer greed of racetracks on catering systemic cheating trainers & made up races like Everest. Note wagering turnover still falling (see $TAH.AX). https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/weir-s-case-shows-up-racing-s-lack-of-integrity-20191009-p52z8r.html https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/weir-s-case-shows-up-racing-s-lack-of-integrity-20191009-p52z8r.html" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1182034416958263297) 2019-10-09T20:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Some what surprising to see $MLT.AX buying $ALU.AX & $REA.AX as new investments in past https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191010/pdf/449clx5tbdg3n0.pdf https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191010/pdf/449clx5tbdg3n0.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1182150619538153472) 2019-10-10T04:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@abellemiller @ASX If cargo is going so well to pay 120x for $WTC.AX I just look at the price of Maersk" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1186441020491235328) 2019-10-22T00:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Nearly three hours of aircraft porn. Hot stuff. $AER . If you own $MQG.AX you now know why they did the PGGM deal & de-emphasise this business. Get big (& smart) or get out. https://media.rampard.com/20191111/index.jsp https://media.rampard.com/20191111/index.jsp" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1194074312149352448) 2019-11-12T02:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@AlanKohler @BernardKeane Mate if you saw his behaviour at the $SOL.AX AGM a few years back . he should stop. Comprehensively shredded & not by Milner. He has very little credibility. There are smarter ways of doing it. Notwithstanding the sexual predator slur was a disgrace" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1199942201951707136) 2019-11-28T06:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@tofdaj @John_Hempton Good to see a "non buy" on $XRO.AX creates some debate. Not as much as a stonking sell on $APT.AX (see UBS today)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1202091682096910336) 2019-12-04T05:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@ignore89039500 Some pictures from the $BLD.AX annual report for you. No explanation necessary other than overly passive shareholders who let this shit happen" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1202739234366296065) 2019-12-05T23:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "It's not your decision $BLD.AX sharehodlers it's totally up to Mike. So never you mind Baggies. (suggest you do something & ring Ms. Fagg)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1202821081867812866) 2019-12-06T05:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$SCP.AX neighbourhood cap rates. $GOW.AX used 7.71% for Kempsey & Moonee (latter sold at profit). Sub-regionals at 6.75% broadly similar" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1224463996394201093) 2020-02-03T22:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@TmaValue totally. Add to $TWE.AX for example in recent times. $QBE.AX & many others in the US alone" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1227493534065803270) 2020-02-12T07:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A tiny bit of history. From [--] years + a month or so ago in the @FinancialReview. DYOR" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1231825116675239937) 2020-02-24T06:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@captainjujubean @sircontraire So what would you value Australia at given its EBITDA (pre corporate costs). Suggest very important analysis which worked very well with $XRO.AX in evaluating the price for the growth options. At one stage you were paying diddly squat for US/ROW. Not sure the case here" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1232827819480121344) 2020-02-27T00:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/n The classic Australian issue in this COVID-19 situation is "time arbitrage". Do you have a one week month year or [--] year view The longer your viewpoint the more you should get interested. Two classic conundrums for me are a couple of quality global players based in Oz" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1232830491016847360) 2020-02-27T00:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2/n So how do you cope with $TWE.AX Share price drop initially a function of poor US business decisions but now COV intervened to create more problems. Good news is that they can hold inventory (& not a bad idea as '20 vintage will be meh). If u have a 12month view - problem" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1232831062159417344) 2020-02-27T00:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3/n But if you have a five year view Maybe $TWE.AX won't be around in [--] years as it's a pimple in the market caps of luxury who tend to be controlled by VERY long term thinkers. Certain of its brands are genuinely irreplaceable" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1232831702474510337) 2020-02-27T00:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Wonder if you can buy loo roll on Afterpay Aha that's why $APT.AX up 6.2% today" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1234717280283398144) 2020-03-03T05:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "More office clearance stuff. The hand drawn chart of Adsteam at its height (1989). Owned 14% of $NAB.AX 9% of $ANZ.AX and $8% of $WBC.AX before the takeover of IEL which stretched it too far" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1235156394451451904) 2020-03-04T10:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@SebGreenway NOT ADVICE. I own none of them yet. More inclined to ANZ than others Wouldn't touch NAB or WBC - technology fustercluck+overdistributing+too early for McEwan/culture versus overaggression in lending. Property losses likely less than remediation costs unless long lived recession" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1239411106264707072) 2020-03-16T04:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@SebGreenway We had a short on $MQG.AX earlier in the year. Earnings quality is awful & relies on PFees energy trading & asset sales. They are very good at finding wood ducks though. Cohort P/E is 7-8 not 15x. Only two banks held globally - remember the margin environment is horrid" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1239411672051118080) 2020-03-16T04:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@AussieP_Bateman @TraderJS87 @Michael99908062 @CBRstrategic @Twitter @TwitterGov I have no position in $WBC.AX & don't intend to" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1239511276037869568) 2020-03-16T11:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "4/n (i) real fear = lack of ICU beds (2500 in Oz biased to Sydney don't ask about USA) (j) the damage done to GENUINE long term asset prices thru' stocks is incredible (think $VNO $SYD.AX $SGR.AX) - doesn't make much sense past 1year (k) Why is $HLS.AX at $2.45 when" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1239709796657270784) 2020-03-17T00:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Wonder if Sunsuper DID close on the December [----] deal to buy 25% of $MQG.AX aircraft leasing biz $AER down from [--] to [-----] & $AL from [--] to [-----]. Let's make the markdown 75% between friends shall we Think both sides need to tell. Nearly as good as Hancock exit from $APT.AX" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1240384516302102528) 2020-03-18T21:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$NAB.AX shares -50% in [--] months. Overdistribution of DPS when times "good". No extra collective provisioning then to stock away the goodies. Costs not falling margins flat. Folks thought remediation a quick one-off. Truly horrid pre COVID. If u didn't live thru' [----] u dont know" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1254554601660928000) 2020-04-26T23:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Some of us are so old we can remember who used to own Bradford White Southcorp the predecessor company of $TWE.AX https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/lowly-water-heaters-get-ensnarled-in-cross-border-covid-19-fightsref=EQKv7BaH https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/lowly-water-heaters-get-ensnarled-in-cross-border-covid-19-fightsref=EQKv7BaH" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1255462264481746945) 2020-04-29T11:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/2 One of the world's most irrelevant public companies showing its utter irrelevance this week by buying back 4.36% of the free float shares at a 38% () discount to NTA. $TRE.OS bought back 2.5m of the 57.335m non Wilhelmsen owned shares at NOK11 each versus NAV of NOK17.70" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1260718322003263489) 2020-05-13T23:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2/2 Treasure ASA owns [-------] shares of Hyundai Glovis (086280.KS) worth US$367million. So its only asset is in KRW accounts in US$ & stock price in NOK. There's about US$6.3m in cash = NTA of US$1.74 a share (214.8m). 160m owned by $WWI.OS. I will own the non WWI share. Long" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1260719451311181824) 2020-05-13T23:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Just on $AEF.AX - $IFL.AX bought at $26 pre the 100:1 split so that's 26c in todays money. As a minor FYI my company in December [----] held [-----] of these things (2456000 in todays equivalent). Would now be worth 22bricks. Register chock full of folks there 15years ago" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1274850455017816066) 2020-06-21T23:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Corporate sector ability: cigar smoking saying SFA in riddles back stabbing back room dealing. Perfect for $.AX boardroom - wonder which one. Suspect it wont be $SVW.AX" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1278977184808316930) 2020-07-03T09:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Extreme non stonk exotica: $TRE.OS only assets: $4.5m cash & [-------] shares Hyundai Glovis (086280.KS). TRE has 214.8million shares 72% owned by Wilhelmsen. Glovis +21% in July. TRE - flat. Discount a mere 43%. TRE NOK11.30; NAV NOK19.70. @oddballstocks @alluvialcapital 1DAY" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1285585683101319169) 2020-07-21T14:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@therealdale No - most people are scared shit less by insurers. A lot of what QBE do is still overseas & most folks don't understand the accounts for $IAG.AX" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1285784462832238592) 2020-07-22T03:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Little thread on one of the ASX's most hated companies: $CIM.AX. Just reported half year after close. Cash flow explained but not so flash NPAT expectations but. at EV of $8.2billion a few things going for it. EV shud fall as 1.3bn net debt high point with H2 cash [--] come" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1288745667490279433) 2020-07-30T07:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2/n on $CIM.AX decent amount of hidden assets notably 47% of enlarged Ventia (just t/o Broadspectrum) FY [--] combined revenue $4.9billion; combined EBITA $246million. CIM share shud be worth $750m plus allowing for $325m of external debt (&$135m of internal) = $2.35 per CIM share" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1288746852632817664) 2020-07-30T08:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Erik81041120 @_mumbling_me @NAB I have no position either way in $NAB.AX but think the supplementary stuff is a very interesting economic read through generally ignored by most economists. Tallies up with the obvious debt laden middle aged consumer/home-owner thesis" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1294059708332912640) 2020-08-13T23:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$AMP.AX Triple dog-box for de Williams. (1) handling of whole issue (2) "reach out" (3) "walk by". Talk properly. What's wrong with "contact" & "ignore". Employees don't want corporate speak on things this serious. Whatever's in the water at Alfred Street it ain't good" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1295550586981511169) 2020-08-18T02:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "BTW yes I know the SMI bid was increased marginally and there was a scrip component - one of the best corporate deals I have ever seen. (maybe even makes up for $COL.AX.๐)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1296274238505025538) 2020-08-20T02:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "As usual $AMP.AX situation shows it's the useless response to an adverse event that creates the carnage rather than the event itself. Having an open truthful and honest culture rather than spin helps immeasurably. Not sure we're there yet with this company" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1297658766905626625) 2020-08-23T22:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$APT.AX up $13+ in a week = $3.7bn ish. DYOR" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1298051823467601921) 2020-08-25T00:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Has $APT.AX had a stock split" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1299153547963981825) 2020-08-28T01:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Maybe insurance is so boring that key male executives have to "play" $AMP.AX (x2) $QBE.AX (x2)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1300590613457301504) 2020-09-01T00:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "For you youngsters: the day $AMP.AX opened the way for KFB Packer to become a zillionaire. [--] years ago on [--] Aug [----]. Privatisation of Cons Press at $5/share versus $4.69NTA with NO VALUE on balance sheet for Channel [--] in Syd/Melb or mastheads" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1303639385229778944) 2020-09-09T10:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Rather interesting to see the $APT.AX ramathon yesterday morning (up nearly 6% at one point) gradually deflate then puncture entirely today. 8.4% high to low in [--] hours. Not sure thats called "investing"" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1308969583668273152) 2020-09-24T03:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2/2 Most of the stocks I spoke about earlier this year are travelling OK - most notably $BLD.AX and $BBN.AX and pleasingly for the correct reasons. But same caveat applies here. Thanks for your understanding" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1314422554178646017) 2020-10-09T04:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Whatever @blueorcainvest thesis on the Zhaopin asset + overall views on $SEK.AX they highlight one thing Australian analysts gloss over time & again: capitalised software costs see @psimpsonmorgan chart of $ANZ.AX earlier today. This is rife in BNPL land (except $SZL.AX)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1321615942653145088) 2020-10-29T00:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Look who built it. $LLC.AX Good story with no real conclusion. The ultimate Donald Trump mystery that couldnt be solved before Election Day https://t.co/Ivjg7XAJza by @DanAlexander21 https://t.co/qrYJFgtjUy The ultimate Donald Trump mystery that couldnt be solved before Election Day https://t.co/Ivjg7XAJza by @DanAlexander21 https://t.co/qrYJFgtjUy" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1323747766133088256) 2020-11-03T22:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Not quite VW-Porsche but this short squeeze on $URW.AX is pretty epic: 15.6% of capital is short but not in Australia - all in Europe (numbers may be iffy)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1326005193176047616) 2020-11-10T03:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$URW.AX now at [-----] $URW.AS equivalent = 18% above yesterday's Amsterdam close" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1326027070485377025) 2020-11-10T05:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@chamath If you can stretch to US$2.4bn (inc premium). no debt pure cash flow at 99%+ margin highest quality royalty in the world will grow significantly next three years then flatline for [--]. If you can't financially engineer the cash flows. $DRR.AX (get it before $FNV do)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1334661838164803584) 2020-12-04T00:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/2 Amazed that once you become a $9bn market cap biz in Australia sell-side research is so compromised it won't point out that management's preferred metric of EBITDA is SO compromised that in two cases it represented [---] & 1.93x PROPER profit at that level in FY20" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1337261794264449026) 2020-12-11T05:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2/2 No attempt to segment rents minorities & ESPECIALLY essential spend on software which in US is largely expensed. So the shares trade at EV/proper FY20EBITDA of 39x and 137x. Guidance for FY21 is given as EBITDA even tho' utter BS in both cases. No analysis $SEK.AX $WTC.AX" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1337263348161777665) 2020-12-11T05:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Q2 that @ignore89039500 is wingeing about: long story to which there was a relevant moral. Who sold 14.57m $REA.AX (15%) to Ray White on [--] Aug [----] at 15c which they on-sold in [----] at $5.75 making 38x their money - and still left $2.45BILLION on the table. ๐ฉ Bank" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1339831854220734465) 2020-12-18T07:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Saintly96 @10footinvestor @galumay 2/2 provided hubris doesn't enter oligopoly banks are massive ROE institutions. $NAB.AX bought two of the best in late 1980s - Northern Bank in Ulster (55% ROE) & Clydesdale (30% ROE) - then ballsed them up by paying too much for Yorkshire Bank (not an oligopoly)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1341509452667600898) 2020-12-22T22:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2/n .even including the not so complimentary ones - except $APT.AX trolls (NOT the genuine "I think you might have missed" explanations). Highlights: $XPL.AX ; November 9/10; $EXO.MI ; $ELF.TO companies buying back stock [--] the first time EVER (having told you they never would)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1341889267560157184) 2020-12-23T23:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "More tough times for $PTM.AX - fundie responsible for best performing products vs benchmark & 24% of fum has moved on. Corporate play (politely not enamoured with new Chair either) https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02326939-2A1272554access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4 https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02326939-2A1272554access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1343784672786927616) 2020-12-29T05:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "We got to bid up $APT.AX because it's better than this where only 10% of the shares are in free float. Crazy time. Even Hamish thinks so" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1349903587065794560) 2021-01-15T02:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I do like the logic behind this simple evaluation of $APT.AX from @AllanGrayAus - at current prices $APT.AX will need to join the Spacex flight to Mars & pick up some customers there. But the CAC might be prohibitive. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/dodging-the-darlings-and-loving-the-lonely https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/dodging-the-darlings-and-loving-the-lonely" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1350928582323937289) 2021-01-17T22:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@oz_investor I agree - but on $APT.AX the assumptions you have to make to get to this pricing of the equity are very unrealistic" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1352186367489441794) 2021-01-21T09:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I hope $MQG.AX are doing REAL due diligence on $VOC.AX - what an ugly mess it is" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1362170439263342592) 2021-02-17T22:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Joke modelling. Expand eco-system globally costs barely move. CAC is increasing. Not even separated out for potential investors to see. $APT.AX" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1362538390260883458) 2021-02-18T23:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/2 Off beam inflation watch: Check out these titanium dioxide stocks over the past few weeks. The ones reported looking at demand surges & price increases. It's a $18bn a year market that whitens paper paint cosmetics etc. $002601.SZ $TROX $CC $ILU.AX" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1364925367023067139) 2021-02-25T13:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Only incompetent $AMP.AX management can sell 60% & control of an asset at same implied price they bought back 15% a few months ago. Vote it down make them spin it off to shareholders not pursue a deal negotiated by this crew. Emotional position only seeing old employer decimated" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1365048981101846528) 2021-02-25T21:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@John_Hempton Australian companies are experts at selling to you what you already own. or doing smart-arse things like a rights issue prior to a demerger. Who did that Oh yes $AMP.AX in [----] https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20031218/pdf/3k507sgx4t42b.pdf https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20031218/pdf/3k507sgx4t42b.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1365067990421540872) 2021-02-25T22:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "last comment on $AMP.AX as no position. Net debt is only $250m but remediation yet to pay so becomes $800m ish pre other atrocities. Problem with this AMP management is they have killed shareholders by turning the company into a holding co of stub equity (Resolution Capital etc)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1365071866533195777) 2021-02-25T22:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@suracheFX Ring your $IFL.AX owned broker" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1366313589246623746) 2021-03-01T09:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@b_richo_ No major thoughts. It's a long term "annuity" stream so to really shift the valuation requires change to discount rate LONG TERM FeO2 pricing or production. We know the latter is coming via expansion. The quarterly does at least show the inherent leverage in $DRR.AX" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1389009207555346434) 2021-05-03T00:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BeaglierCapital Hmm. Funds management business pretty much in tatters platform prices had to be cut. Bank going OK & P/BV or P/E multiples on the up & some surplus capital. Best hope is that somebody with a sense of history like Hamish buys it rather than those faux Mexican takeouts" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1390165778020794369) 2021-05-06T04:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BeaglierCapital BTW given the $MFG.AX stake in Barrenjoey what a great project for them. Take $AMP.AX to the chum factory cut it up and make a profit. $MQG.AX the other obvious player but when you're $58bn cap $4bn is๐๐ฉ" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1390166589509570563) 2021-05-06T04:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$WTC.AX It's 5.45pm on a Friday arvo everyone is pretty much done for the week & Old Mate slides out an Appendix 3Y telling you he's sold another $6.3million worth of stock in prior [--] days. Part of his announcement on [--] April to sell down to "facilitate liquidity in WTC". ๐ค" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1391516882654490631) 2021-05-09T22:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Anybody seen any $MS research on $APT.AX recently Must be a screaming buy now over 40% below last published price target (unless I missed something)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1391934881828007936) 2021-05-11T01:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I reckon $LLC.AX is nearly as cheap as it been in a while. Hard to analyse though. The property construction and investment outfit is hoping it will be a case of second time lucky when it comes to the auction of its chunky services business. https://t.co/8mZkIlgZ9p The property construction and investment outfit is hoping it will be a case of second time lucky when it comes to the auction of its chunky services business. https://t.co/8mZkIlgZ9p" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1392086008401829896) 2021-05-11T11:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Not there at present but love stats (& always have) that $XRO.AX pump out. Simplest way to look at it is market currently pricing about [---] years ahead with Mkt cap/EV $12billion over current LTV which will take 4+ yrs to catch up. Leave you to go back & calibrate this. DYOR" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1392625310823157766) 2021-05-12T23:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@nove777 No disagreement on that. However barriers to entry are not small. look how long/much it took $XRO.AX to get where it has and with strong capital market access" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1392637214320828424) 2021-05-13T00:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@CapitalLutra @88888sAccount 15% premium to Betmakers blah blah. Don't Tripp-up๐คฃ The $TAH.AX board should float the bloody thing then let all the spivs who want to buy it LBO-style fight amongst themselves. Similar to $LNK.AX and PEXA. #letthemarketdecide" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1398108811198488577) 2021-05-28T02:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Since this was nearly 3weeks ago I think we can now reveal. Nobody quotes FCF (& FCF yield) on $APX.AX after deducting the capitalised R&D (grrr). At 6% for a company like this it looked very cheap. 21% bounce since but way off overblown highs. https://www.afr.com/technology/why-a-restructure-is-just-what-appen-needed-20210527-p57vrl https://www.afr.com/technology/why-a-restructure-is-just-what-appen-needed-20210527-p57vrl" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1399151521573400579) 2021-05-30T23:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Saintly96 @ShitValueFund Cheaper than $MTD or $SGSN.SW" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1401763649279070214) 2021-06-07T04:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "1/2 Discovered today that self-indulgence infests @TwitterSpaces just as it does podcasts. I don't want to listen to your name dropping idiosyncrasies about micro micro bits of markets when I'm trying to understand multi-billion dollar opportunity (or not)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1407864365815005186) 2021-06-24T00:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2/2 Conclusion: I'll follow the man with the money as close to him as I can get. $BOL.PA $ODET.PA" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1407864667062427648) 2021-06-24T00:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@peter_tulip Check some entrepreneurial stocks like Bond Corp Adsteam & Qintex in June [----]. They all looked OK on "debt/assets". Better eg. REITs in [----] - check out $GPT.AX hi quality assets geared up. Investors are still not back to square nearly [--] years on. Evidence is way against you" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1408586246692085760) 2021-06-26T00:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Ben_McEvoyAUS @SGM63 @crjhall @MichalakisCon Sleep is away with the pixies. He would have stuffed your late [----] portfolio full of $GPT.AX (not back square [--] years on) Centro & a bunch of other REITs because debt/assets was OK. IMHO he is plain irresponsible tweeting this crap" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1408586854912258048) 2021-06-26T00:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "From the largest equities manager in Australia [--] years ago to a giveaway deal ($75m in two years) bought by Macquarie $MQG.AX. As somebody who worked there in better times makes me cry. What a shit-show. $AMP.AX" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1412909104582909956) 2021-07-07T22:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "At current prices I reckon $LLC.AX is takeover fodder for a Brookfield or $BX or similar IMHO. I agree with Firetail analysis below. BUT $LLC is one of the more arrogant Australian Australia a dreadful underperformer & needs a "Stokes" to shake them up. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/one-of-the-most-compelling-opportunities-on-the-asx-today https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/one-of-the-most-compelling-opportunities-on-the-asx-today" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1416968956179476481) 2021-07-19T03:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@JamesGreenhal20 Assume you are freaking out about secession risk. I am paying the management & board of $DRR.AX to just check the cheque. Nothing else. Anything different would be diworsification. Don't encourage them James. This is close to the best royalty on the planet" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1418040054128152581) 2021-07-22T02:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "My favourite quarterly report. Two pages. A lazy $55m of quarterly revenue with next to no costs. $DRR.AX https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210730/pdf/44yt9rhnldmxnf.pdf https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210730/pdf/44yt9rhnldmxnf.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1420889887864070147) 2021-07-29T23:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Anguscrennan @Scutty There was still [--] months or so to the peak from here. The proposed $QAN.AX deal was the most egregious attempted rape of minority shareholders I have ever seen. The minorities of $AEP.AX that is. Wood duck equity. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070112/pdf/310hhrn200v5wv.pdf https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070112/pdf/310hhrn200v5wv.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1422034923200737281) 2021-08-02T03:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Would have thought the milestones @AMPCapital achieved in the past year were (1) alienate many of its senior female management (2) have many of its funds raided by rivals (3) sell its core equity/bonds business to $MQG.AX for SFA (4) assist cratering of share price of its parent" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1423094686374252544) 2021-08-05T01:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "How do you know you're alive Another Lend Lease restructuring charge $150m. $LLC.AX if you want to cry yourself to sleep look at this 5year analysis - then think of LLC exec remuneration & board BS. However.IMHO an opportune time for takeover https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210816/pdf/44zb56lxdl42m4.pdf https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210816/pdf/44zb56lxdl42m4.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1427047673173925891) 2021-08-15T23:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Interesting listening to the class acts at $DXS.AX presso yesterday especially if you want to look through the current situation. Very optimistic even outside of the fast growing funds mgt business. https://www.openbriefing.com/OB/Dexus/2021/8/17/Dexus-2021-Annual-Results-Briefing/4284.aspx https://www.openbriefing.com/OB/Dexus/2021/8/17/Dexus-2021-Annual-Results-Briefing/4284.aspx" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1427869801767063559) 2021-08-18T05:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "2/n $3.2billion of contracted asset sales to complete H1 (timber Meridian NABP) then US flyash to come. They paid US$2.6billion (& huuuuge fees to $MQG.AX) but unlikely to get that back. So EV is really $4.8bn less what they get for flyash. Aussie earned $157m EBIT + property" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1429978168505507842) 2021-08-24T01:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@ASXlongshort That's one of the farces of this reporting season. You can do anything you want as log as you provide an IFRS/AASB reconciliation. Abuse of NRI's is staggering. $ANN.AX is a shining beacon compared to others" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1430289926482907138) 2021-08-24T22:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is a nicely put together easily readable piece showing why you may wish to contradict $DXS.AX and $VCX.AX + others. h/t @grhutchens https://x.com/mikejanda/status/1435814818406014978 https://x.com/mikejanda/status/1435814818406014978" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1435817244852846597) 2021-09-09T04:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Better load up on $TWE.AX "Penfold's Koonunga Hill" because according to old mate from the Taliban (at 1:12 of the video) when you have enough of it who knows what happens. If you're Canadian. https://news.sky.com/story/why-dont-they-come-back-taliban-occupying-british-embassy-in-kabul-urge-diplomats-return-12403466dcmp=snt-sf-twitter https://news.sky.com/story/why-dont-they-come-back-taliban-occupying-british-embassy-in-kabul-urge-diplomats-return-12403466dcmp=snt-sf-twitter" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1436180680635940865) 2021-09-10T04:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@88888sAccount Not to Bunnings $WES.AX we don't 'cos there's a fkgn big sign at the entry delivery doors to each one says "NO CHEP"" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1437575429435445252) 2021-09-14T00:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Clearly for Australians in charge of something when shit happens on your patch you just either walk away hide it or blame someone else. @RBAInfo playing the game now as well. So surging leveraged asset prices are no concern to RBA & Dr. Lowe Really https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rba-says-surging-house-prices-are-a-government-problem-20210914-p58rjv.html https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rba-says-surging-house-prices-are-a-government-problem-20210914-p58rjv.html" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1438010974305325056) 2021-09-15T05:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The downside bust will be if/when foreign money says "you're not using my funds to lend on domestic property at 14x median income". You've got to hope if @AlboMP gets elected he will curtail the tenure of some of this monstrously paid @RBAInfo execs & make then work for $MQG.AX" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1438011647256248320) 2021-09-15T05:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I love stationary & pens but never got the attraction or business model here. Bit hard when a better branded "competitor" is owned by a 7bn+ Belgian car dealership (that also owns "Windscreens O'Brien") $DIE.BR https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/kikki-k-buyers-circle-as-creditors-count-losses-20210915-p58rub https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/kikki-k-buyers-circle-as-creditors-count-losses-20210915-p58rub" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1438015953103585280) 2021-09-15T05:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "DYOR on how this graphically stimulating view of Empire State Building applies elsewhere. I respect $DXS.AX operating excellence but believe they are too optimistic regarding bounceback - especially into summer months. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/09/15/nyregion/empire-state-building-reopening-new-york.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/09/15/nyregion/empire-state-building-reopening-new-york.html" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1439708916351332354) 2021-09-19T21:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Sydney CBD office attendance is currently 4% "but it's going to bounce back yeah yeah" - it will bounce but as high as the $DXS.AX & $CHC.AX need or predict Interesting situation in Big Apple. https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/07/midtown-manhattan-reels-from-the-highest-retail-vacancies-in-nyc.html https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/07/midtown-manhattan-reels-from-the-highest-retail-vacancies-in-nyc.html" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1446447233138774018) 2021-10-08T12:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@DownunderValue 1/2 I think you gloss over the negative aspect of the "Master of the Universe" issue. I think the investments in G&G (no view hate the product) FinClear (bullish+) & BJ (should work) within $MFG.AX derate it. I have no issue with seed investments and MFG funds" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1448482139549290501) 2021-10-14T02:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@DownunderValue 2/3 (verbosity) It adulterates the FM biz which is inherently high ROIC. I don't regard MFG management style as value - its "quality" - the big winners which got them to here were top notch global biz (Visa etc) which were underpriced then eventually OTT" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1448482720091312130) 2021-10-14T02:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@DownunderValue 3/3 A market correction would actually help the investment case. Spitting out Magellan Capital would help IMHO - I don't see $MFG.AX as $MKL $Y or $BRK like at all. I would rather they buy another complimentary/diversifying FM biz & leverage marketing expertise" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1448483810211815425) 2021-10-14T03:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@DownunderValue 1/n I reckon $MFG.AX trading at 15.3x a conservative near year forecast assuming no value for the three capital initiatives full cost of options liability. If they keep dividends up then limited capacity to make new initiatives outside FM" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1449243581214904322) 2021-10-16T05:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Lend Lease $LLC.AX here we have a company trading at a fraction of what it is worth. 14pages of "stakeholder" engagement. One word NEVER MAKES AN APPEARANCE: SHAREHOLDERS. What a disgrace. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20211018/pdf/451rqxjhn6qzm9.pdf https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20211018/pdf/451rqxjhn6qzm9.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1449875097817260034) 2021-10-17T23:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I wonder if Michael Ullmer has been reading my thoughts on $LLC.AX - the Dusseldorp name gets a run (and so it should). Long and hopeful" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1458928768936865804) 2021-11-11T22:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A few thoughts as @East72Holdings revisits three stock from four years ago at today's AGM presso to show how they have progressed but are still cheap. $EXO.MI $ODET.PA and $VIRT plus some other stuff http://east72.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/EAST-72-AGM-2021-PRESENTATION-23-NOV-21.pdf http://east72.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/EAST-72-AGM-2021-PRESENTATION-23-NOV-21.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1462914271692476422) 2021-11-22T22:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Some nonsense in this article. Why would selling Barrenjoey (or any of the other PE investments) help $MFG.AX isn't exactly strapped for cash Of course improving returns helps significantly & if markets really tank it could be Hamish the Hero. No posn https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-hamish-douglass-will-struggle-to-stop-magellans-plunge-20211220-p59izs https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-hamish-douglass-will-struggle-to-stop-magellans-plunge-20211220-p59izs" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1472774400558596097) 2021-12-20T03:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Worth noting at our recent AGM pressy for @East72Holdings we calculated market valued $BOL.PA operations at (E1.6BN). Selling Africa for E5.6bn. Long $ODET.PA & $VIV.PA (the latter not directly involved). Crazy cheap & Feb [--] is looming DYOR" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1473235644637847562) 2021-12-21T10:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Been a @VodafoneAU customer for 18years. Small bill issue when new plan triggered dropping out of direct debit. Charged late payment fee (obviously automated). Enquired to have it removed as @VodafoneAU problem. They try to nickel & dime me for $7.50 Supervisor training = 0" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1473506191946833922) 2021-12-22T04:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "When will someone PLEASE teach these folks LTV/CAC analysis. Just unbelievable you would try to scump $7.50 off an 18year customer $TPG.AX - things going backwards if this is the new @VodafoneAU" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1473506683770994689) 2021-12-22T04:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BGoods6 Some recent slides from me on the subject. Think you can see the uplift in ANTI (adjusted net trading income) from activity vol memes and acquisitions" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1481107365198200834) 2022-01-12T03:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BGoods6 Worth noting $VIRT is close to a record high at $31 (last reached in early 2018) but is a way way better business than then. If people are happy to treat $MQG.AX trading profits at 15x multiple I'm a buyer of this baby all day at 12x. Folks buying into Citadel = bullish" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1481108354974220294) 2022-01-12T03:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$MQG.AX rapidly turning into financier of choice for second tier football teams in England. DYOR. Big business not without risk" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1484381752340926464) 2022-01-21T04:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@SGM63 @ausbiztv @Scutty @NadineBlayney Hard to resist at the prices. Russian market always looks terrifying when politics in the news but historically bounces back as the REAL value is there. Unless it's looted $OGZD.Il ($GAZP.ME) oil not going away. Or $SBER.ME rocket scientists on REAL fintech" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1488009423045869574) 2022-01-31T04:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@RhinoTroy @SGM63 @FinancialReview EV excluding lease committments/adjusted EBITDA (making sure I've capitalised every bit of cash salary as R& D) excluding stock based payments + any other costs I feel like you needn't bother with or just ring $WTC.AX" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1488402154872512513) 2022-02-01T06:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@southernmacro Agree. I have no idea why $DXS.AX plough money in and reckon the values are holding up. Some of the idiot fitout costs in these buildings are madness" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1490123910108434434) 2022-02-06T00:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I do think $MFG.AX shareholders can reasonably ask how the hell McLennan can PROPERLY chair them $REA.AX $HT1.AX & Rugby Australia. None are "low maintenance" businesses with three being extremely dependent on small # of people. His undoubted talent being stretched very thin" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1490509573962092545) 2022-02-07T02:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$MQG.AX has more than one Spanish "twin". $FER.MC might be described as $MQG.AX's father. It STILL has its 407ETR stake in Toronto by most estimations the world's greatest asset. Inflation proofed variable priced electronic tolling https://www.ferrovial.com/en/business/projects/407-etr/ https://www.ferrovial.com/en/business/projects/407-etr/" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1490794997402136578) 2022-02-07T21:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Even worse. In the LT the bid is way too cheap BUT $HOT.DE the bidder is even cheaper & construction stocks the world over trade on EV/EBITDA multiples [--]. There are reasons why (cost inflation crap contracts temporary moves away from city living)" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1496606997004754946) 2022-02-23T22:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Its $VOW.DE results this evening. I shall go to bed dreaming that John Malone runs the company. There are not too many groups around the globe that benefit from the "centre" but where SOTP is massively share price so lending itself to tracker stocks. Porsche. VWFS. China JV. EV" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1503560752803721220) 2022-03-15T02:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@claudedwalker @lachlanbjensen @OwenRask @tmcd0n @pattymelvile When you think they had [-----] properties [--] years ago Siteminder is hardly ripping the lights out COVID or not. Love reading their stuff to play "growth company buzzword bingo". NED's have too many distractions as well. 1/2" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1506826024327151621) 2022-03-24T02:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@claudedwalker @lachlanbjensen @OwenRask @tmcd0n @pattymelvile 2/2 $XRO.AX really took off when the shares had been mauled by 65% but +ve FCF was in sight. It's a dominating & LOVED product in two markets close in a third. IMHO leaves Pexa & SDR for dead. The valuation issue is always how much you pay for "blue-sky" USA. No holding" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1506826695805874182) 2022-03-24T02:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "In the 1980's AMP Investments was the biggest player in Aussie equities the #1 go-to for every broker & corporate. Today its sale for $63million (just over half what $AMP.AX said in July 21) to $MQG.AX is completed. Makes you weep. What utter mismanagement. ๐ญ๐ญ" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1508218798842671105) 2022-03-27T23:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Tell you what. Post some reasoned opinions & financial analysis on listed asset managers & you get yourself a crowd. $PTM.AX $MFG.AX" [X Link](https://x.com/abroninvestor/status/1513853415805579269) 2022-04-12T12:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@abroninvestor Andrew Brown Dynastic Investor ๐ฆ๐บ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟAndrew Brown Dynastic Investor ๐ฆ๐บ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ posts on X about $aptax, $mfgax, investment, in the the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence finance stocks countries travel destinations technology brands automotive brands cryptocurrencies premier league luxury brands social networks
Social topic influence $aptax, $mfgax, investment, in the, $bolpa, if you, australia, business, debt, money
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @east72dynasty @ignore89039500 @foxcastlehold @ausbiztv @claudedwalker @equitymates @financialreview @88888saccount @albomp @downundervalue @scutty @manutd @ianslaterphoto1 @east72holdings @puppyeh1 @lachlanbjensen @berthonjones @rodneyforrest00 @adegranvilliers @johnhempton
Top assets mentioned Virtu Financial, Inc. Class A (VIRT) MANCHESTER UNITED PLC (MANU) Aercap Holdings N.V. (AER) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) News Corp Class B (NWS) Morgan Stanley (MS) Ferrari N.V. (RACE) GammaSwap (GS)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"East [--] Holdings December [----] Quarterly features a small update on Manchester United PLC but a feature on a new holding in which many have an interest - long or short. Magellan Financial (ASX; MFG) where we have dug into a https://lnkd.in/gstza-xk https://lnkd.in/g9CMQ-Rr https://lnkd.in/gstza-xk https://lnkd.in/g9CMQ-Rr"
X Link 2023-01-06T11:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$NWS $FOXA This is why you don't read @guardian for finance. @janemartinson writes a piece dissecting the value of $NWS & completely omits ANY MENTION of its most valuable asset 61% of REA Group LISTED in Australia is worth US$12billion at current share price - 3x Harper Collins. Easily fungible. https://www.theguardian.com/media/2025/feb/22/were-clearly-heading-towards-collapse-why-the-murdoch-empire-is-about-to-go-bang https://www.theguardian.com/media/2025/feb/22/were-clearly-heading-towards-collapse-why-the-murdoch-empire-is-about-to-go-bang"
X Link 2025-02-22T18:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So the deal to sell AMP Life by $AMP.AX was so bad that when it's all but called off due by a "left field" interlocutor the shares FALL 10%. Interesting. "CrapCo" spin-off a la $S32.AX may not be the worst outcome - subject to capital requirements which may be the issue"
X Link 2019-07-15T00:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is the UK. Obviously we know it's the same deal in Australia too. $TAH.AX $CWN.AX $SCR.AX https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jan/02/gambling-report-shows-industrys-reliance-on-loss-making-customers https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jan/02/gambling-report-shows-industrys-reliance-on-loss-making-customers"
X Link 2020-01-02T20:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Not saying $TSLA can't go utterly & totally parabolic but there are differences with $VOW.DE https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day-Volkswagen-briefly-conquered-the-world/ https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day-Volkswagen-briefly-conquered-the-world/"
X Link 2020-02-04T05:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"If this article is even half right (& it's very kind) $NAB.AX shareholders should be utterly outraged that Thorburn was going to (try and) shoe-in a fellow parishioner over other talent at NAB. No wonder Drummond - who leaves both for dead - buggered off. https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/inside-mike-baird-s-decision-to-quit-nab-20200305-p5473c https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/inside-mike-baird-s-decision-to-quit-nab-20200305-p5473c"
X Link 2020-03-05T01:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@ValorWealth My extreme measure is $GPT.AX. You start [----] with NTA of $3.86. October [--] 1-1 at 60c May [--] another 1-1 at 35c So you end up with [--] shares and NTA of 71c (after devals) = $2.84 having invested total of $1.30. Of course the shares go from a massive NTA premium to discount"
X Link 2020-03-25T03:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Stonk warning. "small start up distress." $ALU.AX"
X Link 2020-05-11T23:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@John_Hempton @simonahac @AngusTaylorMP Some got out in time to the wood ducks $TLS.AX"
X Link 2020-05-21T01:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Having seen the new Chair of $TAH.AX in his role as Austock Chair between November [----] - May 2012.wouldn't be my choice"
X Link 2020-07-23T01:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"We (I have had collusion in this idea) have come up with the solution to $AMP.AX woes. A witchdoctor at Alfred Street https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-02/world-cup-2018-socceroos-and-the-witchdoctor-curse/9825008 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-02/world-cup-2018-socceroos-and-the-witchdoctor-curse/9825008"
X Link 2020-08-24T00:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3/n costs" when they are aiming to grow globally. By the time you strip fx gains capitalised software & line the rent up a more realistic EBITDA result is a loss of $41.6million up from $33.3m. Interestingly lifetime impairments are $195m + $34m of debt recovery costs"
X Link 2020-09-01T03:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@JuddHarvey1 2/n by the time we get to month [--] I am paying more cash out than the P&L charge. The cash payments in CF statement now go under "financing" like our $APT.AX mates. Depreciation of the right of use asset is excluded from EBITDA which is hence inflated versus just paying cash"
X Link 2020-09-01T05:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@RhinoTroy @FinancialReview Obviously arose from my thread today. I had a wonderful (& successful) time with great people for 3.5years at $AMP.AX & it makes me so so sad to see it now. Not a hatchet job - more a lost lament of what should have been"
X Link 2020-09-08T11:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I wondered when someone was going to document the GPG connection to $APT.AX - once again it fell to @johnnyshap - excellent yarn"
X Link 2020-12-22T19:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Saintly96 @10footinvestor @galumay 1/2 p(bank) = p/TBV = f(ROE). Good to start with decent NIM + Ok fees keep costs low (digitise) + lend to the right people. Don't gear too hard (TA/TBV) - benefit in $KSL is ability to analyse in old fashioned way for time being"
X Link 2020-12-22T22:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Companies like $APX.AX & $WTC.AX that give "underlying EBITDA" guidance in whatever currency provide you with nothing that is useful. If they gave capitalised R&D estimates even if they leave you to figure rent then at least you have numbers that can be discounted/capitalised"
X Link 2021-02-24T04:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"You have to hand it to Matrix. $100k into an effective $1.1billion in [--] years. Beats Sydney real estate. $APT.AX"
X Link 2021-02-25T01:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@CapitalLutra @88888sAccount You blokes are too young. This is Wigmores tractors and BHP"
X Link 2021-05-28T02:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Assume $PME.AX is a new favourite of r/wallstreetbets"
X Link 2021-06-24T00:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"/3 Maybe's: $Z1P.AX $APX.AX $ANN.AX $GWA.AX and the obvious one $LLC.AX I didn't give @AnnetteBeacher much chance to interrogate me (apols Annette) in order to get the narrative in 10minutes"
X Link 2021-08-10T01:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$MFG.AX think we know what's coming on Mon/Tue - a Xmas box with a ๐ฉ in it. That's more than the 10% off fum (15 if it is $STJ.LN). The multiple will contract as well so the -ve quintuple whammy is on. Teens No position. Still planking. It's hard turning a sliding FM"
X Link 2021-12-18T10:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@DownunderValue So where does leave the two guys who own 21% of $MFG.AX - no board seats no day to day once George starts For sure Chris is located there & has trusted board allies. No matter how talented do the founders become "bad smells" second guessers etc"
X Link 2022-05-11T04:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The amount of spoofing in microcaps on $ASX.AX is just unbelievable. If some clown at the exchange thinks this encourages liquidity they are kidding. It's obviously HFTs doing things which are bona fide spoofing nothing else. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=jmg2uZ-8XOY https://www.youtube.com/watchv=jmg2uZ-8XOY"
X Link 2022-06-24T03:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@10footinvestor See my past comments on $PTM.AX don't know if it's a short but it's certainly a melting ice-cube. IMHO I don't believe board or management are shareholder friendly other than to those who work there & have scads of shares & will take dividends forever until they can't"
X Link 2022-09-17T07:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@LouiChristopher @cjoye Dexus disclose incentives each quarter - low was 11% late [----]. Last [--] quarters bobbled around 29%. Point with $DXS.AX is equity at least starting to reflect these issues"
X Link 2022-11-06T03:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Wonder how $PPT.AX shareholders feel about not being able to vote on 90% of current shares being issued to $PDL.AX shareholders. The sheer arrogance of this board in torching shareholders money nor building in adequate safeguards to the offer for Pendal is mind numbing"
X Link 2022-11-17T01:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A different take on $MFG.AX highlighting a few forgotten aspects and some inherent option value. A propitious morning to read perhaps. (or not) @East72Holdings December quarterly report released this morning. Main featured security: $MFG.AX https://t.co/rgfns2kJRB @East72Holdings December quarterly report released this morning. Main featured security: $MFG.AX https://t.co/rgfns2kJRB"
X Link 2023-01-06T00:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DaVinciCapital Think you are talking $BOL.AX not $BOL.PA - big difference"
X Link 2023-03-03T02:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@portseacapital $BHP.AX but differently by selling off crapcos that were reinvented- but you MUST spin off stuff to make SoTP actually happen. $VOW.DE has actually gone backwards since a great value adding spin off"
X Link 2023-03-28T00:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$VOW3.DE good article (which will translate) about changes under CEO Blume https://www.deraktionaer.de/nachricht/vw-chef-blume-greift-weiter-durch-grosse-aufgaben-bleiben-299390.html https://www.deraktionaer.de/nachricht/vw-chef-blume-greift-weiter-durch-grosse-aufgaben-bleiben-299390.html"
X Link 2023-07-02T16:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"10% stake in $UMG.AS worth 4.5billion - virtually identical to the sum of unconsolidated 60% $MMB.PA (WILL be consolidated in B/S by 31/12/23) 32.6% $MCG.JO plus 17% $TIT.MI 20% $FLE.AS 24% (voting) $MFEA.MI 1% $TEF.MC 11.8% 26% Viu 2/7 http://PRS.MC http://PRS.MC"
X Link 2023-12-05T05:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Those 100% businesses dominated by Canal+ Havas. In [----] should see "parent" $BOL.PA emerge with 6bn+ of liquidity so it has options. For VIV refinancing of $MMB.PA & potential asset sales will examine $MCG.JO more closely but would need 1.1billion to buy remaining 67% 4/7"
X Link 2023-12-05T05:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@East72Dynasty monthly NTA out yesterday - $ODET.PA discount widening slightly irritating but it will fix itself in due course we believe. Not said is the myriad of "under the radar" opportunities out there at present at massive discounts to real value - portfolio construction probably the most difficult aspect at present to keep stock numbers sensible. https://east72.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Feb-24-template.pdf https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764780354135896389 https://east72.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Feb-24-template.pdf https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764780354135896389"
X Link 2024-03-04T22:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@IMFletcher70 Coal controllers buy $PTM.AX perhaps"
X Link 2024-03-27T04:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My favourite picture of the year. $BOL.PA $ODET.PA $VIV.PA $UMG.AS $MMB.PA $CBDG.PA $FMONC.PA $ARTO.PA $MLTRA.PA $MLCVG.PA $FORE.PA"
X Link 2024-05-17T05:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$BOL.PA - we simplified for you on @ausbiztv this morning. No need to be frightened but if you want the three hour spiel I can oblige (for a "small" fee)"
X Link 2024-05-28T03:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@toobyrox No. The assets are cash $UMG.AS and $VIV.PA. Clearly Vivendi is potentially most at risk but again the assets are global as well as French"
X Link 2024-07-13T10:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@inkulhelt They are totally illiquid and there are significant discounts in $BOL.PA and $ODET.PA The Rivaud stocks are all of the ones "below" Bollore on the organisational chart of which Bollore took effective control on [--] September [----] (this chart from March 1997)"
X Link 2024-07-13T10:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$DRR.AX Whoops. Tough timing. Think this slide might need updating. Your $15m a year going on pretty powerpoint"
X Link 2024-09-02T23:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@zabeelcap @puppyeh1 $ILU.AX have 20% & the rest are mainly passive funds. Being a director of $DRR.AX is the best gig in town - if you don't have a conscience"
X Link 2024-09-03T10:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@nyhedge I have bodyguards called Arnault and Qatar. The buyers may well be ALHG but there may be an alternative like a split/spin of the two main $MMB.PA businesses"
X Link 2025-02-15T02:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@castrobeiras @Reignots @SpecSitsCapMgmt Ah yes. They will need the money to sort out the mess that is Louis Hachette structure & get rid of Agache & Qatar from $MMB.PA. 40+ a share would help. No squeeze out"
X Link 2025-03-23T15:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$NWS very logical in the end - but won't really solve the discounts. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/business/media/murdoch-family-trust-succession-deal.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/business/media/murdoch-family-trust-succession-deal.html"
X Link 2025-09-08T22:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MANU The world's ugliest cash flow statement. No wonder the shares fell 7%+ NET player spend over [--] years is 1.2billion (that's out the door exclduing what they still owe) and net debt despite Sir Jim is 551m - after another 130million drawdown and despite 238mn of new equity over two years. That's effectively been urinated away. The catch up in capex is notable & the stadium is yet to come. Ignore the rubbish about "adjusted EBITDA" - football accounting is about CASH. This is pitiful when you look at the quality sponsors and revenues. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1968481092832477225"
X Link 2025-09-18T01:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ever since I wrote about $MANU as a value trap the team has started playing better football (Sunday was really good) winning & the stock is up 23% on sketchy takeover speculation. ๐ค๐ค"
X Link 2025-10-21T01:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"About time @ManUtd $MANU faced up to the fact Wilcox and Uncle Jim's crew of INEOS managers aren't up to it. Look at the assets the club has out on loan let alone the sale of the Serie A player of the year for 2024/25. That's aside from the questionable managerial appointments. At least @CelticFC moved on their Wilcox equivalent as well as the manager. We can only dream about what Sheikh Jassim might have done - by looking across the city. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008321416689787004 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008321416689787004"
X Link 2026-01-05T23:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MANU Financial disaster & none of them are in Europe"
X Link 2026-01-11T20:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@bowtiedstocks Why do you sell a new ICE car To get the annuity service revenue. With 6% of revenue from service its just a play on Arthur Daleys. Thats very low multiple earnings. Also accept EV service way lower and compromises the model. Plus Australian consumers pressured by CoL"
X Link 2026-01-27T19:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@1968Tv A favourite @SUFCOfficial team even though they weren't that good 12th in Div [--] but furthest been in FA Cup beat Macclesfield Stockport Millwall Sheff Wed to get here & would have got Leeds at home in QF if we won. Keegan was [--] in that game & had one more season at Scunny"
X Link 2026-01-27T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Valueinvest_ Think the twitterati reckons it's weird that $TSLA has a higher enterprise value (subject to adjustments you make I accept) than $VOW.DE - so they set out to find out why & if it's justified. At present they can't find in the affirmative"
X Link 2018-09-22T06:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I've recently cancelled @australian because I'm fed up with lack of any balance & @value_investing because covering $LLC.AX is seeming beyond them. With shite like this masquerading as analysis @smh will be next on the list. Spare me. https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/the-graph-that-puts-falling-home-prices-in-perspective-20181204-p50k33.html https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/the-graph-that-puts-falling-home-prices-in-perspective-20181204-p50k33.html"
X Link 2018-12-04T07:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Don't disagree with the end game on this Citi $AMP.AX valuation but have some very different ideas on the parts esp AMP Capital. If $AMP.AX sold 85% AMP Capital for $2.1bn that WOULD be something to rebel about. Would make $MQG.AX worth way less than $100"
X Link 2018-12-12T00:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Dunno about this but do know that $MQG.AX peers have been eviscerated in December. $GS $AER $BX $KKR and don't trade on 14.5x P/E. Just saying. https://www.afr.com/business/expect-a-macquarie-50th-anniversary-deal-20181230-h19k31 https://www.afr.com/business/expect-a-macquarie-50th-anniversary-deal-20181230-h19k31"
X Link 2018-12-31T20:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Aircraft leasing slide by $MQG.AX - same # [--] $AER $8billion commitments [----] aircraft (inc orders) $35bn portfolio size & [---] employees. P/E (exc asset sale profits) =7.7x (not 15) $MQG.AX are a third tier player AT THIS STAGE. There are opportunities given their share price"
X Link 2019-02-12T01:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Last rant on $AMP.AX. $MQG.AX rightly gets kudos for excellent real asset mgt business. AMP has a smaller one ($43bn extnl AUM) but bloody good PLUS amazing Asian partnerships. Has a nice bank though needs some rework due broker biz. [--] questions at briefing. NOT ONE ON EITHER"
X Link 2019-02-14T02:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$AMP.AX = 1.48x $APT.AX - first time below 1.5x. Two way madness IMHO. Act in haste repent at leisure. Two groups of folks with extremely cemented mindsets about these businesses & "valuations" that reflect that. Stand back and think is my advice"
X Link 2019-02-14T03:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@John_Hempton $AMP.AX not a trade. Fundamental value investment obviously under water at present. Many offsetting thankfully AMP is [--] businesses one very valuable another less so post HRC one small one a naughty boy & a lump of capital. IMHO you pay $0 for NB $180m post tax but falling"
X Link 2019-02-14T03:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@ASXTrader3 @John_Hempton Fee structures have been coming down but I agree some lower NW folks will be at the robo-level - no face to face. That's been a structural trend anyway. "Unintended consequences" as was noted in the $AMP.AX pressy citing MiFiD"
X Link 2019-02-14T07:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I hope nobody is suggesting $APT.AX has the strength of business model of $XRO.AX https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/millennial-masterstroke-all-credit-to-afterpay-in-generation-grab-20190228-p510ws.html https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/millennial-masterstroke-all-credit-to-afterpay-in-generation-grab-20190228-p510ws.html"
X Link 2019-03-02T07:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"15x earnings including copious amounts of assumed asset sale profits & leasing income which elsewhere is valued at single digit P/E https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/why-macquarie-is-undervalued/news-story/ca2045d42e9a2977b90c93c0cd7d7195 https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wealth/why-macquarie-is-undervalued/news-story/ca2045d42e9a2977b90c93c0cd7d7195"
X Link 2019-04-22T22:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"only $227million to go before peak insanity. $APT.AX $AMP.AX"
X Link 2019-05-01T02:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$AER on 7.4x fwd earnings FYI.check $MQG.AX leasing income when the interim come out"
X Link 2019-05-01T12:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@galumay I think $AER is undervalued but has its attendant risks (geared 3.5:1) . I think Clime are on drugs reckoning $MQG.AX is cheap at 15x [----] earnings; big quantum of profits are either low quality (P/E of [--] asset sales) or those which are given single digit P/E (leasing)"
X Link 2019-05-01T22:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Well. It's finally arrived. $APT.AX has a market cap higher than $AMP.AX $6.535 to $6.526billion. Hit it Mr. Minneapolis. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=rblt2EtFfC4 https://www.youtube.com/watchv=rblt2EtFfC4"
X Link 2019-05-02T03:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@John_Hempton @timqfadvice At this rate I might be worthless before THEY get to be worthless.๐๐๐. Wondering which $APT.AX personality(ies) is/are on @John_Hempton "red flag" list.or indeed which $AMP.AX personnel"
X Link 2019-05-02T03:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@FinancialReview $MQG.AX piece didn't age well Of $3.867bn pre tax b4 allocations [--] bonuses from profits there's $859m of perf. fees $1.55bn of "gains" net of ALL impairments and $2.8bn of trading income (+800m on 2018). Folks want u to pay 15x Short https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/macquarie-ceo-delivers-bullish-outlook-20190430-p51iha https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/macquarie-ceo-delivers-bullish-outlook-20190430-p51iha"
X Link 2019-05-03T01:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Long $BOL.PA $ODET.PA IMHO a bit harsh; structure not unfathomable. However. Empire builder: Assessing Vincent Bollor via @TheEconomist https://www.economist.com/business/2019/05/30/assessing-vincent-bollore https://www.economist.com/business/2019/05/30/assessing-vincent-bollore"
X Link 2019-06-01T07:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Ey oop. $MQG.AX Shemara & her mates taking over Hull's phone company (& major stadium sponsor). Wouldn't be wandering around in your suits on Bransholme Estate late at night. Macquarie swoops in on telecom group KCom with 563m bid https://t.co/H74RWMRJor Macquarie swoops in on telecom group KCom with 563m bid https://t.co/H74RWMRJor"
X Link 2019-06-03T08:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"How embarrassing. Spin + (and so badly presented at that). This is a $36bn equity priced company. (Why stay at $TLS.AX when you get get seven real bricks a year while it stays solvent)"
X Link 2019-06-12T22:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@galumay @eadatt @Mal8511 @GregHoffman15 $XRO.AX used to do quarterly 4C's which you could blend with the six monthly numbers; enabled very accurate prediction of cash flow break even & made future prediction a bit easier. Their disclosure was/is excellent across markets to get ARPU costs LTV & CAC"
X Link 2019-06-14T13:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/2 Interesting implication of the RBNZ $AMP.AX decision is that AMP balance sheet & legacy life expertise affords more protection to policyholders in NZ than Resolution Life. Is that consistent Will AMP NZ branch be forced into AMZ (NZ) separately capitalised"
X Link 2019-07-15T03:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@crivvens 1/2 Couldn't agree more. This may presage the real bottom (dangerous thinking here) whereby they spin life (CrapCo) with a rights issue/placement to seperate & keep capitalised thereby enabling the FdF strategy on AMP to be enacted. Might work"
X Link 2019-07-16T07:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Patience required but long $BOL.PA & $ODET.PA Posted a Bollore pitch on @SumZero Monday. The majority of it is about the music industry which has become the most important long-term driver of value for the company. https://t.co/agGeFtGOB4 https://t.co/BtyKHrJMa9 $SPOT $NFLX $VIVHY Posted a Bollore pitch on @SumZero Monday. The majority of it is about the music industry which has become the most important long-term driver of value for the company. https://t.co/agGeFtGOB4 https://t.co/BtyKHrJMa9 $SPOT $NFLX $VIVHY"
X Link 2019-07-17T21:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Jake24807560 Blackrock substantials on $ALU.AX and $PME.AX suggest lemming-like buying IMHO"
X Link 2019-07-29T02:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@eadatt Not sure $SOL.AX remember Exco with great affection. Name changed to Round Oak to protect the innocent"
X Link 2019-07-29T10:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Sign of the times. $AAPL TTM EBITDA at end FY15 was $82.5bn; EV was $493bn so EV/EBITDA 6x; latest TTM EBITDA now only $76.5bn but EV=$813bn so EV/EBITDA= 10.5x despite no pft growth. Big rerate of service growth. Justified Net cash will go $100bn in Q4"
X Link 2019-07-31T01:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"If buying $PME.AX now doesn't illustrate some of the craziness of indexing I don't know what does"
X Link 2019-08-01T03:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$BEN.AX might be a trusted bank brand but you wouldn't trust their profit normalisations in a pink fit. Profit before bad debts (which are crazy low + business 90d+ nearly 2x) in reality down 9.5% (or is it 4%). Remediation is an ongoing charge not an abnormal"
X Link 2019-08-12T00:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Peter_Fitz gets it right. I noted the other day gave up going to races [--] years ago after 30years due to sheer greed of racetracks on catering systemic cheating trainers & made up races like Everest. Note wagering turnover still falling (see $TAH.AX). https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/weir-s-case-shows-up-racing-s-lack-of-integrity-20191009-p52z8r.html https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/weir-s-case-shows-up-racing-s-lack-of-integrity-20191009-p52z8r.html"
X Link 2019-10-09T20:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Some what surprising to see $MLT.AX buying $ALU.AX & $REA.AX as new investments in past https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191010/pdf/449clx5tbdg3n0.pdf https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191010/pdf/449clx5tbdg3n0.pdf"
X Link 2019-10-10T04:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@abellemiller @ASX If cargo is going so well to pay 120x for $WTC.AX I just look at the price of Maersk"
X Link 2019-10-22T00:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Nearly three hours of aircraft porn. Hot stuff. $AER . If you own $MQG.AX you now know why they did the PGGM deal & de-emphasise this business. Get big (& smart) or get out. https://media.rampard.com/20191111/index.jsp https://media.rampard.com/20191111/index.jsp"
X Link 2019-11-12T02:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@AlanKohler @BernardKeane Mate if you saw his behaviour at the $SOL.AX AGM a few years back . he should stop. Comprehensively shredded & not by Milner. He has very little credibility. There are smarter ways of doing it. Notwithstanding the sexual predator slur was a disgrace"
X Link 2019-11-28T06:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@tofdaj @John_Hempton Good to see a "non buy" on $XRO.AX creates some debate. Not as much as a stonking sell on $APT.AX (see UBS today)"
X Link 2019-12-04T05:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@ignore89039500 Some pictures from the $BLD.AX annual report for you. No explanation necessary other than overly passive shareholders who let this shit happen"
X Link 2019-12-05T23:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"It's not your decision $BLD.AX sharehodlers it's totally up to Mike. So never you mind Baggies. (suggest you do something & ring Ms. Fagg)"
X Link 2019-12-06T05:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$SCP.AX neighbourhood cap rates. $GOW.AX used 7.71% for Kempsey & Moonee (latter sold at profit). Sub-regionals at 6.75% broadly similar"
X Link 2020-02-03T22:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@TmaValue totally. Add to $TWE.AX for example in recent times. $QBE.AX & many others in the US alone"
X Link 2020-02-12T07:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A tiny bit of history. From [--] years + a month or so ago in the @FinancialReview. DYOR"
X Link 2020-02-24T06:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@captainjujubean @sircontraire So what would you value Australia at given its EBITDA (pre corporate costs). Suggest very important analysis which worked very well with $XRO.AX in evaluating the price for the growth options. At one stage you were paying diddly squat for US/ROW. Not sure the case here"
X Link 2020-02-27T00:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/n The classic Australian issue in this COVID-19 situation is "time arbitrage". Do you have a one week month year or [--] year view The longer your viewpoint the more you should get interested. Two classic conundrums for me are a couple of quality global players based in Oz"
X Link 2020-02-27T00:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2/n So how do you cope with $TWE.AX Share price drop initially a function of poor US business decisions but now COV intervened to create more problems. Good news is that they can hold inventory (& not a bad idea as '20 vintage will be meh). If u have a 12month view - problem"
X Link 2020-02-27T00:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3/n But if you have a five year view Maybe $TWE.AX won't be around in [--] years as it's a pimple in the market caps of luxury who tend to be controlled by VERY long term thinkers. Certain of its brands are genuinely irreplaceable"
X Link 2020-02-27T00:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Wonder if you can buy loo roll on Afterpay Aha that's why $APT.AX up 6.2% today"
X Link 2020-03-03T05:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"More office clearance stuff. The hand drawn chart of Adsteam at its height (1989). Owned 14% of $NAB.AX 9% of $ANZ.AX and $8% of $WBC.AX before the takeover of IEL which stretched it too far"
X Link 2020-03-04T10:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@SebGreenway NOT ADVICE. I own none of them yet. More inclined to ANZ than others Wouldn't touch NAB or WBC - technology fustercluck+overdistributing+too early for McEwan/culture versus overaggression in lending. Property losses likely less than remediation costs unless long lived recession"
X Link 2020-03-16T04:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@SebGreenway We had a short on $MQG.AX earlier in the year. Earnings quality is awful & relies on PFees energy trading & asset sales. They are very good at finding wood ducks though. Cohort P/E is 7-8 not 15x. Only two banks held globally - remember the margin environment is horrid"
X Link 2020-03-16T04:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@AussieP_Bateman @TraderJS87 @Michael99908062 @CBRstrategic @Twitter @TwitterGov I have no position in $WBC.AX & don't intend to"
X Link 2020-03-16T11:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"4/n (i) real fear = lack of ICU beds (2500 in Oz biased to Sydney don't ask about USA) (j) the damage done to GENUINE long term asset prices thru' stocks is incredible (think $VNO $SYD.AX $SGR.AX) - doesn't make much sense past 1year (k) Why is $HLS.AX at $2.45 when"
X Link 2020-03-17T00:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Wonder if Sunsuper DID close on the December [----] deal to buy 25% of $MQG.AX aircraft leasing biz $AER down from [--] to [-----] & $AL from [--] to [-----]. Let's make the markdown 75% between friends shall we Think both sides need to tell. Nearly as good as Hancock exit from $APT.AX"
X Link 2020-03-18T21:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$NAB.AX shares -50% in [--] months. Overdistribution of DPS when times "good". No extra collective provisioning then to stock away the goodies. Costs not falling margins flat. Folks thought remediation a quick one-off. Truly horrid pre COVID. If u didn't live thru' [----] u dont know"
X Link 2020-04-26T23:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Some of us are so old we can remember who used to own Bradford White Southcorp the predecessor company of $TWE.AX https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/lowly-water-heaters-get-ensnarled-in-cross-border-covid-19-fightsref=EQKv7BaH https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/lowly-water-heaters-get-ensnarled-in-cross-border-covid-19-fightsref=EQKv7BaH"
X Link 2020-04-29T11:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/2 One of the world's most irrelevant public companies showing its utter irrelevance this week by buying back 4.36% of the free float shares at a 38% () discount to NTA. $TRE.OS bought back 2.5m of the 57.335m non Wilhelmsen owned shares at NOK11 each versus NAV of NOK17.70"
X Link 2020-05-13T23:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2/2 Treasure ASA owns [-------] shares of Hyundai Glovis (086280.KS) worth US$367million. So its only asset is in KRW accounts in US$ & stock price in NOK. There's about US$6.3m in cash = NTA of US$1.74 a share (214.8m). 160m owned by $WWI.OS. I will own the non WWI share. Long"
X Link 2020-05-13T23:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Just on $AEF.AX - $IFL.AX bought at $26 pre the 100:1 split so that's 26c in todays money. As a minor FYI my company in December [----] held [-----] of these things (2456000 in todays equivalent). Would now be worth 22bricks. Register chock full of folks there 15years ago"
X Link 2020-06-21T23:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Corporate sector ability: cigar smoking saying SFA in riddles back stabbing back room dealing. Perfect for $.AX boardroom - wonder which one. Suspect it wont be $SVW.AX"
X Link 2020-07-03T09:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Extreme non stonk exotica: $TRE.OS only assets: $4.5m cash & [-------] shares Hyundai Glovis (086280.KS). TRE has 214.8million shares 72% owned by Wilhelmsen. Glovis +21% in July. TRE - flat. Discount a mere 43%. TRE NOK11.30; NAV NOK19.70. @oddballstocks @alluvialcapital 1DAY"
X Link 2020-07-21T14:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@therealdale No - most people are scared shit less by insurers. A lot of what QBE do is still overseas & most folks don't understand the accounts for $IAG.AX"
X Link 2020-07-22T03:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Little thread on one of the ASX's most hated companies: $CIM.AX. Just reported half year after close. Cash flow explained but not so flash NPAT expectations but. at EV of $8.2billion a few things going for it. EV shud fall as 1.3bn net debt high point with H2 cash [--] come"
X Link 2020-07-30T07:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2/n on $CIM.AX decent amount of hidden assets notably 47% of enlarged Ventia (just t/o Broadspectrum) FY [--] combined revenue $4.9billion; combined EBITA $246million. CIM share shud be worth $750m plus allowing for $325m of external debt (&$135m of internal) = $2.35 per CIM share"
X Link 2020-07-30T08:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Erik81041120 @_mumbling_me @NAB I have no position either way in $NAB.AX but think the supplementary stuff is a very interesting economic read through generally ignored by most economists. Tallies up with the obvious debt laden middle aged consumer/home-owner thesis"
X Link 2020-08-13T23:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$AMP.AX Triple dog-box for de Williams. (1) handling of whole issue (2) "reach out" (3) "walk by". Talk properly. What's wrong with "contact" & "ignore". Employees don't want corporate speak on things this serious. Whatever's in the water at Alfred Street it ain't good"
X Link 2020-08-18T02:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"BTW yes I know the SMI bid was increased marginally and there was a scrip component - one of the best corporate deals I have ever seen. (maybe even makes up for $COL.AX.๐)"
X Link 2020-08-20T02:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"As usual $AMP.AX situation shows it's the useless response to an adverse event that creates the carnage rather than the event itself. Having an open truthful and honest culture rather than spin helps immeasurably. Not sure we're there yet with this company"
X Link 2020-08-23T22:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$APT.AX up $13+ in a week = $3.7bn ish. DYOR"
X Link 2020-08-25T00:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Has $APT.AX had a stock split"
X Link 2020-08-28T01:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Maybe insurance is so boring that key male executives have to "play" $AMP.AX (x2) $QBE.AX (x2)"
X Link 2020-09-01T00:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"For you youngsters: the day $AMP.AX opened the way for KFB Packer to become a zillionaire. [--] years ago on [--] Aug [----]. Privatisation of Cons Press at $5/share versus $4.69NTA with NO VALUE on balance sheet for Channel [--] in Syd/Melb or mastheads"
X Link 2020-09-09T10:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Rather interesting to see the $APT.AX ramathon yesterday morning (up nearly 6% at one point) gradually deflate then puncture entirely today. 8.4% high to low in [--] hours. Not sure thats called "investing""
X Link 2020-09-24T03:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2/2 Most of the stocks I spoke about earlier this year are travelling OK - most notably $BLD.AX and $BBN.AX and pleasingly for the correct reasons. But same caveat applies here. Thanks for your understanding"
X Link 2020-10-09T04:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Whatever @blueorcainvest thesis on the Zhaopin asset + overall views on $SEK.AX they highlight one thing Australian analysts gloss over time & again: capitalised software costs see @psimpsonmorgan chart of $ANZ.AX earlier today. This is rife in BNPL land (except $SZL.AX)"
X Link 2020-10-29T00:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Look who built it. $LLC.AX Good story with no real conclusion. The ultimate Donald Trump mystery that couldnt be solved before Election Day https://t.co/Ivjg7XAJza by @DanAlexander21 https://t.co/qrYJFgtjUy The ultimate Donald Trump mystery that couldnt be solved before Election Day https://t.co/Ivjg7XAJza by @DanAlexander21 https://t.co/qrYJFgtjUy"
X Link 2020-11-03T22:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Not quite VW-Porsche but this short squeeze on $URW.AX is pretty epic: 15.6% of capital is short but not in Australia - all in Europe (numbers may be iffy)"
X Link 2020-11-10T03:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$URW.AX now at [-----] $URW.AS equivalent = 18% above yesterday's Amsterdam close"
X Link 2020-11-10T05:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@chamath If you can stretch to US$2.4bn (inc premium). no debt pure cash flow at 99%+ margin highest quality royalty in the world will grow significantly next three years then flatline for [--]. If you can't financially engineer the cash flows. $DRR.AX (get it before $FNV do)"
X Link 2020-12-04T00:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/2 Amazed that once you become a $9bn market cap biz in Australia sell-side research is so compromised it won't point out that management's preferred metric of EBITDA is SO compromised that in two cases it represented [---] & 1.93x PROPER profit at that level in FY20"
X Link 2020-12-11T05:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2/2 No attempt to segment rents minorities & ESPECIALLY essential spend on software which in US is largely expensed. So the shares trade at EV/proper FY20EBITDA of 39x and 137x. Guidance for FY21 is given as EBITDA even tho' utter BS in both cases. No analysis $SEK.AX $WTC.AX"
X Link 2020-12-11T05:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Q2 that @ignore89039500 is wingeing about: long story to which there was a relevant moral. Who sold 14.57m $REA.AX (15%) to Ray White on [--] Aug [----] at 15c which they on-sold in [----] at $5.75 making 38x their money - and still left $2.45BILLION on the table. ๐ฉ Bank"
X Link 2020-12-18T07:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Saintly96 @10footinvestor @galumay 2/2 provided hubris doesn't enter oligopoly banks are massive ROE institutions. $NAB.AX bought two of the best in late 1980s - Northern Bank in Ulster (55% ROE) & Clydesdale (30% ROE) - then ballsed them up by paying too much for Yorkshire Bank (not an oligopoly)"
X Link 2020-12-22T22:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2/n .even including the not so complimentary ones - except $APT.AX trolls (NOT the genuine "I think you might have missed" explanations). Highlights: $XPL.AX ; November 9/10; $EXO.MI ; $ELF.TO companies buying back stock [--] the first time EVER (having told you they never would)"
X Link 2020-12-23T23:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"More tough times for $PTM.AX - fundie responsible for best performing products vs benchmark & 24% of fum has moved on. Corporate play (politely not enamoured with new Chair either) https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02326939-2A1272554access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4 https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02326939-2A1272554access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4"
X Link 2020-12-29T05:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"We got to bid up $APT.AX because it's better than this where only 10% of the shares are in free float. Crazy time. Even Hamish thinks so"
X Link 2021-01-15T02:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I do like the logic behind this simple evaluation of $APT.AX from @AllanGrayAus - at current prices $APT.AX will need to join the Spacex flight to Mars & pick up some customers there. But the CAC might be prohibitive. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/dodging-the-darlings-and-loving-the-lonely https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/dodging-the-darlings-and-loving-the-lonely"
X Link 2021-01-17T22:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@oz_investor I agree - but on $APT.AX the assumptions you have to make to get to this pricing of the equity are very unrealistic"
X Link 2021-01-21T09:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I hope $MQG.AX are doing REAL due diligence on $VOC.AX - what an ugly mess it is"
X Link 2021-02-17T22:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Joke modelling. Expand eco-system globally costs barely move. CAC is increasing. Not even separated out for potential investors to see. $APT.AX"
X Link 2021-02-18T23:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/2 Off beam inflation watch: Check out these titanium dioxide stocks over the past few weeks. The ones reported looking at demand surges & price increases. It's a $18bn a year market that whitens paper paint cosmetics etc. $002601.SZ $TROX $CC $ILU.AX"
X Link 2021-02-25T13:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Only incompetent $AMP.AX management can sell 60% & control of an asset at same implied price they bought back 15% a few months ago. Vote it down make them spin it off to shareholders not pursue a deal negotiated by this crew. Emotional position only seeing old employer decimated"
X Link 2021-02-25T21:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@John_Hempton Australian companies are experts at selling to you what you already own. or doing smart-arse things like a rights issue prior to a demerger. Who did that Oh yes $AMP.AX in [----] https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20031218/pdf/3k507sgx4t42b.pdf https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20031218/pdf/3k507sgx4t42b.pdf"
X Link 2021-02-25T22:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"last comment on $AMP.AX as no position. Net debt is only $250m but remediation yet to pay so becomes $800m ish pre other atrocities. Problem with this AMP management is they have killed shareholders by turning the company into a holding co of stub equity (Resolution Capital etc)"
X Link 2021-02-25T22:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@suracheFX Ring your $IFL.AX owned broker"
X Link 2021-03-01T09:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@b_richo_ No major thoughts. It's a long term "annuity" stream so to really shift the valuation requires change to discount rate LONG TERM FeO2 pricing or production. We know the latter is coming via expansion. The quarterly does at least show the inherent leverage in $DRR.AX"
X Link 2021-05-03T00:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BeaglierCapital Hmm. Funds management business pretty much in tatters platform prices had to be cut. Bank going OK & P/BV or P/E multiples on the up & some surplus capital. Best hope is that somebody with a sense of history like Hamish buys it rather than those faux Mexican takeouts"
X Link 2021-05-06T04:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BeaglierCapital BTW given the $MFG.AX stake in Barrenjoey what a great project for them. Take $AMP.AX to the chum factory cut it up and make a profit. $MQG.AX the other obvious player but when you're $58bn cap $4bn is๐๐ฉ"
X Link 2021-05-06T04:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$WTC.AX It's 5.45pm on a Friday arvo everyone is pretty much done for the week & Old Mate slides out an Appendix 3Y telling you he's sold another $6.3million worth of stock in prior [--] days. Part of his announcement on [--] April to sell down to "facilitate liquidity in WTC". ๐ค"
X Link 2021-05-09T22:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Anybody seen any $MS research on $APT.AX recently Must be a screaming buy now over 40% below last published price target (unless I missed something)"
X Link 2021-05-11T01:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I reckon $LLC.AX is nearly as cheap as it been in a while. Hard to analyse though. The property construction and investment outfit is hoping it will be a case of second time lucky when it comes to the auction of its chunky services business. https://t.co/8mZkIlgZ9p The property construction and investment outfit is hoping it will be a case of second time lucky when it comes to the auction of its chunky services business. https://t.co/8mZkIlgZ9p"
X Link 2021-05-11T11:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Not there at present but love stats (& always have) that $XRO.AX pump out. Simplest way to look at it is market currently pricing about [---] years ahead with Mkt cap/EV $12billion over current LTV which will take 4+ yrs to catch up. Leave you to go back & calibrate this. DYOR"
X Link 2021-05-12T23:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@nove777 No disagreement on that. However barriers to entry are not small. look how long/much it took $XRO.AX to get where it has and with strong capital market access"
X Link 2021-05-13T00:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@CapitalLutra @88888sAccount 15% premium to Betmakers blah blah. Don't Tripp-up๐คฃ The $TAH.AX board should float the bloody thing then let all the spivs who want to buy it LBO-style fight amongst themselves. Similar to $LNK.AX and PEXA. #letthemarketdecide"
X Link 2021-05-28T02:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Since this was nearly 3weeks ago I think we can now reveal. Nobody quotes FCF (& FCF yield) on $APX.AX after deducting the capitalised R&D (grrr). At 6% for a company like this it looked very cheap. 21% bounce since but way off overblown highs. https://www.afr.com/technology/why-a-restructure-is-just-what-appen-needed-20210527-p57vrl https://www.afr.com/technology/why-a-restructure-is-just-what-appen-needed-20210527-p57vrl"
X Link 2021-05-30T23:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Saintly96 @ShitValueFund Cheaper than $MTD or $SGSN.SW"
X Link 2021-06-07T04:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"1/2 Discovered today that self-indulgence infests @TwitterSpaces just as it does podcasts. I don't want to listen to your name dropping idiosyncrasies about micro micro bits of markets when I'm trying to understand multi-billion dollar opportunity (or not)"
X Link 2021-06-24T00:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2/2 Conclusion: I'll follow the man with the money as close to him as I can get. $BOL.PA $ODET.PA"
X Link 2021-06-24T00:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@peter_tulip Check some entrepreneurial stocks like Bond Corp Adsteam & Qintex in June [----]. They all looked OK on "debt/assets". Better eg. REITs in [----] - check out $GPT.AX hi quality assets geared up. Investors are still not back to square nearly [--] years on. Evidence is way against you"
X Link 2021-06-26T00:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Ben_McEvoyAUS @SGM63 @crjhall @MichalakisCon Sleep is away with the pixies. He would have stuffed your late [----] portfolio full of $GPT.AX (not back square [--] years on) Centro & a bunch of other REITs because debt/assets was OK. IMHO he is plain irresponsible tweeting this crap"
X Link 2021-06-26T00:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"From the largest equities manager in Australia [--] years ago to a giveaway deal ($75m in two years) bought by Macquarie $MQG.AX. As somebody who worked there in better times makes me cry. What a shit-show. $AMP.AX"
X Link 2021-07-07T22:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"At current prices I reckon $LLC.AX is takeover fodder for a Brookfield or $BX or similar IMHO. I agree with Firetail analysis below. BUT $LLC is one of the more arrogant Australian Australia a dreadful underperformer & needs a "Stokes" to shake them up. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/one-of-the-most-compelling-opportunities-on-the-asx-today https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/one-of-the-most-compelling-opportunities-on-the-asx-today"
X Link 2021-07-19T03:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@JamesGreenhal20 Assume you are freaking out about secession risk. I am paying the management & board of $DRR.AX to just check the cheque. Nothing else. Anything different would be diworsification. Don't encourage them James. This is close to the best royalty on the planet"
X Link 2021-07-22T02:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"My favourite quarterly report. Two pages. A lazy $55m of quarterly revenue with next to no costs. $DRR.AX https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210730/pdf/44yt9rhnldmxnf.pdf https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210730/pdf/44yt9rhnldmxnf.pdf"
X Link 2021-07-29T23:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Anguscrennan @Scutty There was still [--] months or so to the peak from here. The proposed $QAN.AX deal was the most egregious attempted rape of minority shareholders I have ever seen. The minorities of $AEP.AX that is. Wood duck equity. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070112/pdf/310hhrn200v5wv.pdf https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070112/pdf/310hhrn200v5wv.pdf"
X Link 2021-08-02T03:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Would have thought the milestones @AMPCapital achieved in the past year were (1) alienate many of its senior female management (2) have many of its funds raided by rivals (3) sell its core equity/bonds business to $MQG.AX for SFA (4) assist cratering of share price of its parent"
X Link 2021-08-05T01:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"How do you know you're alive Another Lend Lease restructuring charge $150m. $LLC.AX if you want to cry yourself to sleep look at this 5year analysis - then think of LLC exec remuneration & board BS. However.IMHO an opportune time for takeover https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210816/pdf/44zb56lxdl42m4.pdf https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210816/pdf/44zb56lxdl42m4.pdf"
X Link 2021-08-15T23:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Interesting listening to the class acts at $DXS.AX presso yesterday especially if you want to look through the current situation. Very optimistic even outside of the fast growing funds mgt business. https://www.openbriefing.com/OB/Dexus/2021/8/17/Dexus-2021-Annual-Results-Briefing/4284.aspx https://www.openbriefing.com/OB/Dexus/2021/8/17/Dexus-2021-Annual-Results-Briefing/4284.aspx"
X Link 2021-08-18T05:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"2/n $3.2billion of contracted asset sales to complete H1 (timber Meridian NABP) then US flyash to come. They paid US$2.6billion (& huuuuge fees to $MQG.AX) but unlikely to get that back. So EV is really $4.8bn less what they get for flyash. Aussie earned $157m EBIT + property"
X Link 2021-08-24T01:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@ASXlongshort That's one of the farces of this reporting season. You can do anything you want as log as you provide an IFRS/AASB reconciliation. Abuse of NRI's is staggering. $ANN.AX is a shining beacon compared to others"
X Link 2021-08-24T22:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is a nicely put together easily readable piece showing why you may wish to contradict $DXS.AX and $VCX.AX + others. h/t @grhutchens https://x.com/mikejanda/status/1435814818406014978 https://x.com/mikejanda/status/1435814818406014978"
X Link 2021-09-09T04:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Better load up on $TWE.AX "Penfold's Koonunga Hill" because according to old mate from the Taliban (at 1:12 of the video) when you have enough of it who knows what happens. If you're Canadian. https://news.sky.com/story/why-dont-they-come-back-taliban-occupying-british-embassy-in-kabul-urge-diplomats-return-12403466dcmp=snt-sf-twitter https://news.sky.com/story/why-dont-they-come-back-taliban-occupying-british-embassy-in-kabul-urge-diplomats-return-12403466dcmp=snt-sf-twitter"
X Link 2021-09-10T04:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@88888sAccount Not to Bunnings $WES.AX we don't 'cos there's a fkgn big sign at the entry delivery doors to each one says "NO CHEP""
X Link 2021-09-14T00:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Clearly for Australians in charge of something when shit happens on your patch you just either walk away hide it or blame someone else. @RBAInfo playing the game now as well. So surging leveraged asset prices are no concern to RBA & Dr. Lowe Really https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rba-says-surging-house-prices-are-a-government-problem-20210914-p58rjv.html https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rba-says-surging-house-prices-are-a-government-problem-20210914-p58rjv.html"
X Link 2021-09-15T05:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The downside bust will be if/when foreign money says "you're not using my funds to lend on domestic property at 14x median income". You've got to hope if @AlboMP gets elected he will curtail the tenure of some of this monstrously paid @RBAInfo execs & make then work for $MQG.AX"
X Link 2021-09-15T05:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I love stationary & pens but never got the attraction or business model here. Bit hard when a better branded "competitor" is owned by a 7bn+ Belgian car dealership (that also owns "Windscreens O'Brien") $DIE.BR https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/kikki-k-buyers-circle-as-creditors-count-losses-20210915-p58rub https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/kikki-k-buyers-circle-as-creditors-count-losses-20210915-p58rub"
X Link 2021-09-15T05:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"DYOR on how this graphically stimulating view of Empire State Building applies elsewhere. I respect $DXS.AX operating excellence but believe they are too optimistic regarding bounceback - especially into summer months. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/09/15/nyregion/empire-state-building-reopening-new-york.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/09/15/nyregion/empire-state-building-reopening-new-york.html"
X Link 2021-09-19T21:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Sydney CBD office attendance is currently 4% "but it's going to bounce back yeah yeah" - it will bounce but as high as the $DXS.AX & $CHC.AX need or predict Interesting situation in Big Apple. https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/07/midtown-manhattan-reels-from-the-highest-retail-vacancies-in-nyc.html https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/07/midtown-manhattan-reels-from-the-highest-retail-vacancies-in-nyc.html"
X Link 2021-10-08T12:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@DownunderValue 1/2 I think you gloss over the negative aspect of the "Master of the Universe" issue. I think the investments in G&G (no view hate the product) FinClear (bullish+) & BJ (should work) within $MFG.AX derate it. I have no issue with seed investments and MFG funds"
X Link 2021-10-14T02:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@DownunderValue 2/3 (verbosity) It adulterates the FM biz which is inherently high ROIC. I don't regard MFG management style as value - its "quality" - the big winners which got them to here were top notch global biz (Visa etc) which were underpriced then eventually OTT"
X Link 2021-10-14T02:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@DownunderValue 3/3 A market correction would actually help the investment case. Spitting out Magellan Capital would help IMHO - I don't see $MFG.AX as $MKL $Y or $BRK like at all. I would rather they buy another complimentary/diversifying FM biz & leverage marketing expertise"
X Link 2021-10-14T03:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@DownunderValue 1/n I reckon $MFG.AX trading at 15.3x a conservative near year forecast assuming no value for the three capital initiatives full cost of options liability. If they keep dividends up then limited capacity to make new initiatives outside FM"
X Link 2021-10-16T05:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Lend Lease $LLC.AX here we have a company trading at a fraction of what it is worth. 14pages of "stakeholder" engagement. One word NEVER MAKES AN APPEARANCE: SHAREHOLDERS. What a disgrace. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20211018/pdf/451rqxjhn6qzm9.pdf https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20211018/pdf/451rqxjhn6qzm9.pdf"
X Link 2021-10-17T23:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I wonder if Michael Ullmer has been reading my thoughts on $LLC.AX - the Dusseldorp name gets a run (and so it should). Long and hopeful"
X Link 2021-11-11T22:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A few thoughts as @East72Holdings revisits three stock from four years ago at today's AGM presso to show how they have progressed but are still cheap. $EXO.MI $ODET.PA and $VIRT plus some other stuff http://east72.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/EAST-72-AGM-2021-PRESENTATION-23-NOV-21.pdf http://east72.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/EAST-72-AGM-2021-PRESENTATION-23-NOV-21.pdf"
X Link 2021-11-22T22:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Some nonsense in this article. Why would selling Barrenjoey (or any of the other PE investments) help $MFG.AX isn't exactly strapped for cash Of course improving returns helps significantly & if markets really tank it could be Hamish the Hero. No posn https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-hamish-douglass-will-struggle-to-stop-magellans-plunge-20211220-p59izs https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/why-hamish-douglass-will-struggle-to-stop-magellans-plunge-20211220-p59izs"
X Link 2021-12-20T03:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Worth noting at our recent AGM pressy for @East72Holdings we calculated market valued $BOL.PA operations at (E1.6BN). Selling Africa for E5.6bn. Long $ODET.PA & $VIV.PA (the latter not directly involved). Crazy cheap & Feb [--] is looming DYOR"
X Link 2021-12-21T10:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Been a @VodafoneAU customer for 18years. Small bill issue when new plan triggered dropping out of direct debit. Charged late payment fee (obviously automated). Enquired to have it removed as @VodafoneAU problem. They try to nickel & dime me for $7.50 Supervisor training = 0"
X Link 2021-12-22T04:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"When will someone PLEASE teach these folks LTV/CAC analysis. Just unbelievable you would try to scump $7.50 off an 18year customer $TPG.AX - things going backwards if this is the new @VodafoneAU"
X Link 2021-12-22T04:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BGoods6 Some recent slides from me on the subject. Think you can see the uplift in ANTI (adjusted net trading income) from activity vol memes and acquisitions"
X Link 2022-01-12T03:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BGoods6 Worth noting $VIRT is close to a record high at $31 (last reached in early 2018) but is a way way better business than then. If people are happy to treat $MQG.AX trading profits at 15x multiple I'm a buyer of this baby all day at 12x. Folks buying into Citadel = bullish"
X Link 2022-01-12T03:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$MQG.AX rapidly turning into financier of choice for second tier football teams in England. DYOR. Big business not without risk"
X Link 2022-01-21T04:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@SGM63 @ausbiztv @Scutty @NadineBlayney Hard to resist at the prices. Russian market always looks terrifying when politics in the news but historically bounces back as the REAL value is there. Unless it's looted $OGZD.Il ($GAZP.ME) oil not going away. Or $SBER.ME rocket scientists on REAL fintech"
X Link 2022-01-31T04:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@RhinoTroy @SGM63 @FinancialReview EV excluding lease committments/adjusted EBITDA (making sure I've capitalised every bit of cash salary as R& D) excluding stock based payments + any other costs I feel like you needn't bother with or just ring $WTC.AX"
X Link 2022-02-01T06:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@southernmacro Agree. I have no idea why $DXS.AX plough money in and reckon the values are holding up. Some of the idiot fitout costs in these buildings are madness"
X Link 2022-02-06T00:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I do think $MFG.AX shareholders can reasonably ask how the hell McLennan can PROPERLY chair them $REA.AX $HT1.AX & Rugby Australia. None are "low maintenance" businesses with three being extremely dependent on small # of people. His undoubted talent being stretched very thin"
X Link 2022-02-07T02:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$MQG.AX has more than one Spanish "twin". $FER.MC might be described as $MQG.AX's father. It STILL has its 407ETR stake in Toronto by most estimations the world's greatest asset. Inflation proofed variable priced electronic tolling https://www.ferrovial.com/en/business/projects/407-etr/ https://www.ferrovial.com/en/business/projects/407-etr/"
X Link 2022-02-07T21:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Even worse. In the LT the bid is way too cheap BUT $HOT.DE the bidder is even cheaper & construction stocks the world over trade on EV/EBITDA multiples [--]. There are reasons why (cost inflation crap contracts temporary moves away from city living)"
X Link 2022-02-23T22:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Its $VOW.DE results this evening. I shall go to bed dreaming that John Malone runs the company. There are not too many groups around the globe that benefit from the "centre" but where SOTP is massively share price so lending itself to tracker stocks. Porsche. VWFS. China JV. EV"
X Link 2022-03-15T02:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@claudedwalker @lachlanbjensen @OwenRask @tmcd0n @pattymelvile When you think they had [-----] properties [--] years ago Siteminder is hardly ripping the lights out COVID or not. Love reading their stuff to play "growth company buzzword bingo". NED's have too many distractions as well. 1/2"
X Link 2022-03-24T02:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@claudedwalker @lachlanbjensen @OwenRask @tmcd0n @pattymelvile 2/2 $XRO.AX really took off when the shares had been mauled by 65% but +ve FCF was in sight. It's a dominating & LOVED product in two markets close in a third. IMHO leaves Pexa & SDR for dead. The valuation issue is always how much you pay for "blue-sky" USA. No holding"
X Link 2022-03-24T02:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"In the 1980's AMP Investments was the biggest player in Aussie equities the #1 go-to for every broker & corporate. Today its sale for $63million (just over half what $AMP.AX said in July 21) to $MQG.AX is completed. Makes you weep. What utter mismanagement. ๐ญ๐ญ"
X Link 2022-03-27T23:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Tell you what. Post some reasoned opinions & financial analysis on listed asset managers & you get yourself a crowd. $PTM.AX $MFG.AX"
X Link 2022-04-12T12:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
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