# ![@DDBlakeFischer Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::120658221.png) @DDBlakeFischer Blake

Blake posts on X about ai, $spgi, business, meta the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::120658221/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::120658221/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +417%
- [--] Month [-------] +100%
- [--] Months [-------] +18,753%
- [--] Year [-------] +17,871%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::120658221/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::120658221/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +60%
- [--] Month [---] +44%
- [--] Months [---] +2,223%
- [--] Year [---] +4,413%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::120658221/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::120658221/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +5%
- [--] Month [-----] +6.50%
- [--] Months [-----] +36%
- [--] Year [-----] +35%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::120658221/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::120658221/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  58.57% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  36.43% [finance](/list/finance)  27.14% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  10.71% [countries](/list/countries)  2.14% [currencies](/list/currencies)  1.43% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  1.43% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  0.71% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  0.71%

**Social topic influence**
[ai](/topic/ai) 12.14%, [$spgi](/topic/$spgi) #32, [business](/topic/business) 11.43%, [meta](/topic/meta) 8.57%, [$amzn](/topic/$amzn) #281, [market cap](/topic/market-cap) #873, [$meta](/topic/$meta) #197, [microsoft](/topic/microsoft) #1374, [in the](/topic/in-the) 5%, [growth](/topic/growth) 5%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@saynototrading](/creator/undefined) [@invest091](/creator/undefined) [@kobeissiletter](/creator/undefined) [@dimitrynakhla](/creator/undefined) [@k3ithmccullough](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@undrvalue](/creator/undefined) [@firstadopter](/creator/undefined) [@gordocap18](/creator/undefined) [@pgorgey51003](/creator/undefined) [@stockoholics](/creator/undefined) [@jackfarley96](/creator/undefined) [@cedarstresearch](/creator/undefined) [@rafoholic](/creator/undefined) [@julianklymochko](/creator/undefined) [@longequity](/creator/undefined) [@ernestwongbwm](/creator/undefined) [@legithillbilly](/creator/undefined) [@durablecreators](/creator/undefined) [@someone2264](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[S&P Global Inc (SPGI)](/topic/$spgi) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [Marsh (MRSH)](/topic/$mrsh) [Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)](/topic/$ajg) [Neurobro (BRO)](/topic/$bro) [Brookfield Corporation (BN)](/topic/$bn) [Ares Capital, Corp. (ARCC)](/topic/$arcc) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) [Atlassian Corporation PLC (TEAM)](/topic/$team) [Aon PLC (AON)](/topic/$aon) [Canadian Pacific Railway (CP)](/topic/$cp) [Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL)](/topic/$tyl) [Veeva Systems, Inc. (VEEV)](/topic/$veev) [Moody's Corporation (MCO)](/topic/$mco) [Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL)](/topic/$bxsl) [Lowes Companies Inc (LOW)](/topic/$low) [monday.com Ltd. (MNDY)](/topic/$mndy) [Now Coin (NOW)](/topic/$now) [Bedrock (BR)](/topic/$br) [Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company Ordinary Shares (WTW)](/topic/$wtw) [Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (BRK.B)](/topic/$brkb) [Manhattan Associates, Inc. (MANH)](/topic/$manh) [Roper Technologies Inc (ROP)](/topic/$rop) [Brookfield Asset Management Inc (BAM)](/topic/$bam) [Quanta Services Inc (PWR)](/topic/$pwr) [MasTec, Inc. (MTZ)](/topic/$mtz) [SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG)](/topic/$slg) [Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP)](/topic/ameriprise) [AMP Token (AMP)](/topic/$amp) [Msci Inc (MSCI)](/topic/$msci) [Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD)](/topic/$ttd) [Morningstar, Inc. (MORN)](/topic/$morn) [Ryan Specialty Group Holdings, Inc (RYAN)](/topic/$ryan) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [Dow Inc (DOW)](/topic/$dow) [UNIPOLY (UNP)](/topic/$unp) [Carlisle Companies, Inc. (CSL)](/topic/$csl) [Owens Corning (OC)](/topic/$oc) [Exxon Mobil (XOM)](/topic/$xom)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"With this guide in a mature market youd sell Zoetis. But health care is no mature market. Its growing rapidly. This is why you keep $ZTS. Pet health id a good sandbox to play in for the next decade. Even with the Librela disaster theyll still grow EPS 10% next year. Meanwhile Zoetis has several blockbusters in the pipeline. Animals only live [--] years on average and each need vaccines preventative care parasite treatment and many suffer from osteoporosis chronic kidney disease and cancers. Zoetis can go after a handful of big ideas in their pipeline and repeatedly nail a couple that open"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022273933484167457)  2026-02-13T11:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@grok @JackFarley96 @grok I see the operational value but not the appeal to passive shareholders hoping for 10% AFFO yields while mamdani sabotages and ai uproots the need for office space. Whats the best long term bull case"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022461113649238479)  2026-02-14T00:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Whats with all the soft $AMZN shareholders here. Its 30x and NTM capex is nearly 300% of TTM profits. So what if people want to sell it. The risk reward skew is widening. That doesnt fit all portfolios but it steepers the IRR for us if were right. Quit whining. Buy more. Just like youre telling software execs to do. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022627409263280279 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022627409263280279"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022627409263280279)  2026-02-14T11:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This is a quite bullish if you can get to a $489 fair value using earnings that are understated by a billion dollars. Non-cash amortization is not an economic expense. It is an accounting phenomenon and a deferred tax asset $SPGI Fair value would be $600 if updated. But the way I think of it is they have $5.4B of earnings power. Capex requirements of just $200M. That leaves over $5B for dividends and buybacks which is a 4.2% shareholder yield. Plus 6-10% earnings (not EPS) growth gets you 10-14% CAGR This is a good write up on the business if youre interested in S&P Global."  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022755747495579801)  2026-02-14T19:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@negligible_cap [---] bps is probably right meaning 98% chance theyre fine. The ChatGPT platform advantage is big. Market opportunity is too big to not fund the compute. Theyll get the funding unless its clear theyve lost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022864014519222445)  2026-02-15T02:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Send this to all your friends who opine on the "death of the dollar." Sure USD may give way one day. But whether that takes [--] years or [---] years is unknowable. What is knowable is that it's not happening now. $DXY $TLT $GLD https://x.com/i/trending/2022073764142567771 https://x.com/i/trending/2022073764142567771"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022124170897944698)  2026-02-13T01:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DimitryNakhla So many funds bought $CCC the last 2-3 quarters and it absolutely bombed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022371149628477934)  2026-02-13T18:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@qcapital2020 Buy swaps on their debt tied to student housing. Short Boston real estate. Long $LINC $PWR $MTZ $CAT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022385796783935707)  2026-02-13T19:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@grok @JackFarley96 @grok What is their occupancy rate and how has that trended the last few years Give me their forward AFFO per share estimate for $SLG and what is their market cap and debt burden Has the socialist mayor proposed any policies with a direct impact to $SLG or their tenants"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022458644965831084)  2026-02-13T23:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@invest091 @SayNoToTrading Thats interesting. Are brown & brown correlated to each other And Aon to Marsh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022877413840207988)  2026-02-15T03:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I also built smaller positions in two BDCs as they sold below NAV earlier in the month. $BXSL and $ARCC are two of the better ones with low rates of non-accruals and payment-in-kind (PIK) which investors should watch out for. BXSL and Ares each cover their high dividends with net income. BXSL is a new fund but its book is one of the most defensive among all BDCs. Nearly the entire portfolio is first lien senior secured. Ares is one the biggest BDCs with a long track record of success. Credit distress and/or liquidity concerns cause it to sell off every so often and sometimes below book value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1985851020346605808)  2025-11-04T23:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Has anybody worked on Ameriprise My [--] minute overview has sparked my interest. $AMP looks like a steady compounder with high margins fair valuation and great capital allocation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1986892967060377650)  2025-11-07T20:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"See below for Small cap value (blue) versus the S&P (red) since [----] 📊 Recent small cap underperformance has been stark but they provide long-term diversification against an increasingly concentrated S&P and Nasdaq ⚖ Some of the better small cap funds: $VBR $AVUV $RWJ $XSHQ Avoid $IWM as 40% of its holdings are not profitable 🚫 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1990573030729523200 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1990573030729523200"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1990573030729523200)  2025-11-18T00:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@JulianKlymochko BDCs are misunderstood and generally uncovered $BXSL up 7% since this post @PeterChung13 @KobeissiLetter I also built smaller positions in two BDCs as they sold below NAV earlier in the month. $BXSL and $ARCC are two of the better ones with low rates of non-accruals and payment-in-kind (PIK) which investors should watch out for. BXSL and Ares each cover their high dividends with https://t.co/i5RbOCos96 @PeterChung13 @KobeissiLetter I also built smaller positions in two BDCs as they sold below NAV earlier in the month. $BXSL and $ARCC are two of the better ones with low rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/1996318077731168295)  2025-12-03T20:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@KoyfinCharts Ameriprise has repurchased over half its outstanding share count over the same period 👀 Its also the best performing in the S&P financial sector since it was spun out in [----] $AMP Has anybody worked on Ameriprise My [--] minute overview has sparked my interest. $AMP looks like a steady compounder with high margins fair valuation and great capital allocation https://t.co/i7b39EEEnO Has anybody worked on Ameriprise My [--] minute overview has sparked my interest. $AMP looks like a steady compounder with high margins fair valuation and great capital allocation https://t.co/i7b39EEEnO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2001385988413886793)  2025-12-17T20:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@long_equity $LOW $MRSH & $EXR limit orders on $MA $MSCI & $FTNT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2014269796762919350)  2026-01-22T09:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Charter is down another 24% since this post $CHTR In the words of Ben graham: Overpaying for a great company is not the chief risk of investing. The chief risk of investing is in buying a poor quality business that merely looks cheap based on a few years of favorable earnings. @JasonGreenwal12 And $90B in debt. Owners earnings of maybe $3B on $120B of EV for no growth. Least investable among the group including $TMUS $VZ $T and $CMCSA @JasonGreenwal12 And $90B in debt. Owners earnings of maybe $3B on $120B of EV for no growth. Least investable among the group including $TMUS $VZ $T and $CMCSA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2016805357591679403)  2026-01-29T09:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@SayNoToTrading I figured Id find a post of yours if I searched this ticker. Great company. On the watchlist"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2017127770456031635)  2026-01-30T06:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@DimitryNakhla Autodesk is still 49x forward 36x [--] 27x [--] Similar for most of the list. Look at the financial statements theyre more expensive than they look and this is in part why they continue selling off"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2017675232715411803)  2026-01-31T19:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"CNBC just demoed a Claude-built duplicate of a reporter built in [--] minutes. $MNDY has $5B of equity value and all of its net income comes from interest on cash Buy price: [--] http://Monday.com http://Monday.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019094688641479007)  2026-02-04T17:04Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements


"At this point the trade desk could work if they execute but why anyone owned this at 2-3x the multiples of meta and google was just dumb If you didnt realize how expensive it was you need to stop quoting adjusted multiples on all your favorite websites and analyze financial statements yourself. $TTD $META $GOOG Why would anyone own The Trade Desk when you can own the walled gardens Jeff Green complains about on every earnings call $TTD TTM Net Income: $417M TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] $GOOG TTM Net Income: $115B TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] $META TTM Net Income: $71B TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: 22"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019140890368045177)  2026-02-04T20:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@firstadopter @jukan05 So why is LSEG down so much"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019277111484379595)  2026-02-05T05:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Id rather buy Microsoft Ill feel less stupid if it doesnt bounce. If I buy team $TEAM at $100 and it goes to $80 Ill be suicidal because I know better. Nailed it 🎯 @michaelbatnick on sorting through the SaaSacre and Claude-induced $IGV nuke @alwayslearni Capex FUD and Azure slowing to 39% maybe Ive been waiting on this one and might make a buy here. The Capex concerns are silly to me. Microsoft matches them to contracted revenue and says no to a lot of requests for azure capacity. They have a $600B backlog and market @alwayslearni Capex FUD and Azure slowing to 39% maybe Ive been waiting on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019893623819829331)  2026-02-06T21:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TechFundies Michael Batnick nailed it with this quote on his podcast this week: Id rather buy Microsoft Ill feel less stupid if it doesnt bounce. If I buy team $TEAM at $100 and it goes to $80 Ill be suicidal because I know better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2019932864129966134)  2026-02-07T00:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@ErnestWongBWM I would think its hitting convenience stores Walgreens CVS 7/11 dollar tree and even dollar general in the areas Amazon offers it. $WBA $CVS $DLTR $DG $AMZN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020029844051096005)  2026-02-07T07:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@SayNoToTrading Not convinced either way myself but I think Id worry more about verisk than the exchanges. Insurers could cut verisk out one day but I dont think that options exists with ICE CME or LSEG. Do you see it differently"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020174978214424923)  2026-02-07T16:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@legithillbilly @Neorio12321 @bankingslut @ErnestWongBWM No thats a straw man. Walmart Costco and dollar general in particular have contributed to far more of the consolidation in grocery and they did it with executing a better business model and made operating profits that funded expansion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020187224139247946)  2026-02-07T17:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"SBC is no better or worse than any other expense. The beef with SBC is that it pollutes FCF and the PE ratios that get cited. $NOW is around 40x forward if they earn $2.5B in real profits as modeled That being said this chart is relevant because it indicates operating leverage as far as the cost of SBC relative to revenue/eps. Thanks for posting. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020283398091362711 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020283398091362711"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020283398091362711)  2026-02-07T23:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DurableCreators The rails for sure. Berkshire. And actually Amazon. Physical retail +the more that AI and compute proliferates is more demand for AWS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020310407311941903)  2026-02-08T01:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"AWS margin is 35%. Investing as much as possible into that leads to clear ROIs with contracted capacity which is backlogged. Theyll have mega FCF whenever they decide to but holding back from adding capacity to AWS would be a missed opportunity. AWS is not the premiere CSP for AI training (GOOGLE is) but that also means theyre less prone to a training trough. AWS workloads are mostly traditional cloud migrations and the runway for that remains massive. Then we have inference of course which will be many times larger than training. TLDR the capex concerns are unfounded. Runways for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020320888336576865)  2026-02-08T02:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@gordocap18 Correct S&P Globals earnings are so clean. They actually understate their profitability because of $1B in amortization charges. I have them at 22.5x [--] earnings Also approaching the [---] WMA for only the second time this decade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020339506164142410)  2026-02-08T03:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@firstadopter Hard not to like S&P Global here @gordocap18 Correct S&P Globals earnings are so clean. They actually understate their profitability because of $1B in amortization charges. I have them at 22.5x [--] earnings Also approaching the [---] WMA for only the second time this decade https://t.co/zLZ5KK9BD3 @gordocap18 Correct S&P Globals earnings are so clean. They actually understate their profitability because of $1B in amortization charges. I have them at 22.5x [--] earnings Also approaching the [---] WMA for only the second time this decade https://t.co/zLZ5KK9BD3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020343576849477884)  2026-02-08T03:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ZeeContrarian1 Sounds like a setup where Salesforce will beat raise and sell off 7%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020409544787321148)  2026-02-08T08:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Yes I do all valuations by hand and will probably continue to do so until a tool can reliably calc owners earnings without being misled by SBC amortization noncash gains/losses or the working capital volatility in OCF. Which by the way 90% or more of the valuations and charts we see cited on here have at least one of those issues. Your after tax point to adjustments is prescient. I do it in my head at this point but its roughly equivalent to the formula you cited. I generally take GAAP net income plus or minus 80% of the adjustments if the tax benefit was temporary (e.g. gains or losses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020599194327630018)  2026-02-08T20:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Have considered this same idea for Gartner acting as a source of validity in an ocean of AI tools. I think S&P and Moodys stand much greater chances of remaining cemented in their underwriting of securities. More efficient software may even boost their margins. Are there any risks we may be overlooking The chart on Verisk by the way is brutal. I havent spent much time on this one but find it interesting. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020600423736860885 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020600423736860885"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020600423736860885)  2026-02-08T20:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@samsolid57 The bear case is basically that they should be buying back stock at a 3% return rather than investing into AWS at a 35% margin. Bizarre"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020614742445101494)  2026-02-08T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Where are you getting $493M And $57.3M Thats not whats on their income statement. They dont earn $400M let alone $550M. At that valuation I can get S&P Broadridge or the exchanges themself for the same valuation and much wider moats Its possible they maintain their subscription business but there has to be serious doubt there. Personally I only own companies whose staying power I have certainty on so Morningstar is not unique in not qualifying. I use a capital M for millions B for billions Factset situation feels similar to Morningstar research. Tons of nuance there for sure."  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020644509021851681)  2026-02-08T23:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Got it. I wouldnt trust managements telling me what earnings should be unless these are actually one-time in nature and I can justify them. They probably add back SBC as well. Morningstar has never actually made $500M in after-tax profits. Using the financial statements and only adjusting for non-cash charges $Morn is 20x and thats on par with $SPGI (22.5x forward) and Broadridge (20x forward). I use the Morningstar reports as part of my research on any business. I also like some of the historical charts. In addition to absolute valuation I like to see relative valuation (to earnings or sales"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020656512511725741)  2026-02-09T00:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@k3ithmccullough Yes those are forward for $SPGI & $BR. Im more familiar with those two than Morningstar so easier to do. Probably also not fair to add 50% to earning power for one and not the other two. We can conclude here as its not intended to be argumentative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020661706536669427)  2026-02-09T00:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Broadridge $BR is another financial services monopoly whose GAAP earnings understate their earnings power. Adjusting for depreciation and amortization that regularly overstate the cash needs of the business I get to at least $1.3B in TTM earnings. The business now trades at just 16x trailing earnings. The [---] WMA has been pierced for just the third time in a decade. Broadridges business is built on two pillars: Proxy Voting: $BR facilitates shareholder voting with a 99% market share of the bank and broker-dealer segment. Large regulatory barriers to entry. Trade Settlement: Processes over $10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020683525440041035)  2026-02-09T02:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@k3ithmccullough Lol yes thats a dog Ive thankfully avoided. Too much debt. Would you touch any of their peers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020744699871678644)  2026-02-09T06:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"And why does that matter at all Most high ROIC businesses have extremely limited opportunities for reinvestment. AWS runs at a 35% margin. GCP is now earning 50% margins on incremental revenue. Backlogs are now approaching 2% of gdp everyone is supply constrained compute demand is clearly proliferating. And what We want Amazon to buy back stock at a 3% yield rather than invest into a 35% ROI at AWS Bizarre. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020908722185437524 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020908722185437524"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020908722185437524)  2026-02-09T17:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Meta was building a new world from scratch. AWS is expanding a utility that already powers a significant portion of the global GDP. Nearly all of AWS capacity powers 'normal' cloud workloads (databases storage app hosting) that represent hundreds of billions in recurring non-discretionary enterprise spending. This is foundational infrastructure that literally keeps the lights on. 100% mission critical and durable in any scenario of outcomes for AI and model developments. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020954477428412730 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020954477428412730"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020954477428412730)  2026-02-09T20:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"What is going on in the land of insurance brokers today No earnings no news brutal drawdowns: $WTW -13% $AJG -9.5% $AON -8.5% $MRSH -7% $BRO -7%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020957549605027965)  2026-02-09T20:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Ok if we assume all of the startup/SMB mix in the backlog is both SaaS and at risk thats 15% of the backlog rounds up to $40M That leaves $200M of backlog remaining and power constraints (4 GW added) that have capped AWS new revenue to $21B YoY. If some SaaS trash fails its just next man up. Minor compression to the backlog (or marginally slower growth to it which is much more likely) is very different than collapsing ROI. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020961454837670051 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020961454837670051"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020961454837670051)  2026-02-09T20:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DimitryNakhla I never understood the point of this software (I had a seat). Neither was it profitable. And that was before the development of AI as a threat. Why anyone has owned this over the last year is bizarre. CNBC just demoed a Claude-built duplicate of https://t.co/nHI7PS9DPP a reporter built in [--] minutes. $MNDY has $5B of equity value and all of its net income comes from interest on cash Buy price: [--] https://t.co/cZ7Qkg0Z6p CNBC just demoed a Claude-built duplicate of https://t.co/nHI7PS9DPP a reporter built in [--] minutes. $MNDY has $5B of equity value and all of its net income"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020967025330503983)  2026-02-09T21:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch @invest091 The new app Provides personalized quotes in real time Is this really value add for commercial accounts I cant imagine AJG and Marsh are just providing quotes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020967690119282807)  2026-02-09T21:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@DimitryNakhla Thank you. The this is why you dont pay 100x earnings is great for this platform 🤝"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020968091099025422)  2026-02-09T21:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Love the quote. Predicting the future is inherently speculative. And even if youre right a crap ton of success and positive developments are already priced into Palantir and Tesla Nvidia was a crazy one because it was actually trading around 20x forward back at $40 in [----]. 400% return that didnt require paying 100x or more. And Id argue its because buyers werent paying 100x. That would have pulled forward much of the earnings growth as is the case with most valuations at that elevation. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020972999613288611 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020972999613288611"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020972999613288611)  2026-02-09T21:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mindset4Money_X Is there a chart for price to EBIT or price to operating income"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020973796900077989)  2026-02-09T21:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"GPT released a chatbot app that delivers some insurance quotes Hard to see the direct impact to complex transaction advisory but traders may not want to wait and see and/or are discounting proliferation of better tools down the road I think brown & AJG have the most exposure to retail Insurance brokers are getting crushed today after OpenAI approved the first insurer-built AI app on ChatGPT - $WTW $AJG $RYAN $BRO $AON From GS The immediate feedback still is a degree on confusion & the top question is 'Why would this primarily impact the brokers (who https://t.co/P5xDehbPMN Insurance brokers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020984160584860089)  2026-02-09T22:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"If this is the bear case for AWS I should probably increase my position. Even if we assume (wrongly) that all of the backlog attributable to startups/SMB (15%) is both SaaS and at risk AWS is left with a backlog in excess of $200B Dont confuse AWS with $ORCL OCS the $META verse RL or even $GOOG GCP. Nearly all of AWS capacity powers 'normal' cloud workloads (databases storage app hosting) that support trillions in revenues that have little to nothing to do with AI. Ever experienced an AWS outage Literally nothing works without it. This is critical and foundational infrastructure. Core"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021010591310282770)  2026-02-09T23:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Of course That aligns with my review as well. Brown & Brown and AJG both have a material presence in retail lines. Im also concerned by their unimpressive ROIIC. I got around 6% for each of them using [----] as a base. Marsh and Aon score much higher here (high teens to 20%) and sounds like their business models are more sophisticated. $AJG and $BRO go after volume and rely on local relationships between brokers and customers. $Aon $MRSH handle global systemic and catastrophic risks that are more complex and require analytics/consulting a local broker cant provide. I also wonder if Brown &"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021269971805024528)  2026-02-10T17:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter How many days of $DOW chemical railroads $CP $UNP and building suppliers $LOW $OC $CSL outperforming everything until we all start to ask whether we own enough physical assets Exxon $XOM has added $100B of market cap (+22%) in a month with oil still at $63"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021299482592412062)  2026-02-10T19:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Youre right I am not. But I a finance man and curious. Monday didnt earn a profit before all of this. And they just guided down for [----]. The equity isnt worth the $10-$15B it somehow commanded and theres no reason to believe its worth its $5B market cap in [----]. Are you experienced in back end IT If a group of skilled and motivated developers made a replacement curated for a specific org would that product have relatively less bugs and maintenance requirements given its custom design I assume it may also be more enjoyable and friendly to use if it was made specifically for one company/team"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021330202018926762)  2026-02-10T21:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@gordocap18 AI will be president of the United States before a lender makes a $5B asset backed loan to a EBITDA shitco with paper rated by ChatGPT. All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step higher after the All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021333473596940714)  2026-02-10T21:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"When would you consider it a bargain If its ROIIC wasnt infinite Id consider 20x fair and 25x a bit rich. $SPGI however can distribute all of that FCF yield and still grow with effectively no incremental capital. Its a 5% coupon that grows 10% now Were 20x today and 25x if you assume market intel segment goes to zero. 30x ratings and indices alone which is just two-thirds of earnings. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021335744997097572 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021335744997097572"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021335744997097572)  2026-02-10T21:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Leave it alone. $SPGI is the opportunity. All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step higher after the All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021335984068272321)  2026-02-10T21:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DimitryNakhla Which is your favorite Dimitry @long_equity what about you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021336489213448342)  2026-02-10T21:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@PGorgey51003 I already replied to you here How many shares of $MNDY do you own @PGorgey51003 @someone2264 Fair point. It doesnt have to be taken over to question its equity value. My response here expands. Thoughts @PGorgey51003 @someone2264 Fair point. It doesnt have to be taken over to question its equity value. My response here expands. Thoughts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021355844705845695)  2026-02-10T22:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$BR Broadridge ROIC: 18.5% [--] yr ROIIC: 15% Competitive position: Monopoly Morningstar moat rating: Wide [--] yr earnings CAGR: 15.7% Avg dividend yield: 1.5% Expected shareholder CAGR: 17.2% Multiple compression: Earnings + dividends have grown 327% since [----]. Total shareholder return has only been 203%. Recent drawdown: -35% Market cap: $20B TTM owners earnings: $1.3B TTM multiple: 15.5x 26-28 proj earnings growth: 10% CAGR Threats Possible but weak as of now: [--]. Brokers bringing proxy voting in house. Possibility: High Earnings at threat: 3-5% of earnings No visible threat to ballot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021371378335875542)  2026-02-10T23:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TheStalwart Just wait til Anthropic releases an app for oil @KobeissiLetter How many days of $DOW chemical railroads $CP $UNP and building suppliers $LOW $OC $CSL outperforming everything until we all start to ask whether we own enough physical assets Exxon $XOM has added $100B of market cap (+22%) in a month with oil still at $63 https://t.co/oqlVUZVqVc @KobeissiLetter How many days of $DOW chemical railroads $CP $UNP and building suppliers $LOW $OC $CSL outperforming everything until we all start to ask whether we own enough physical assets Exxon $XOM has added $100B of market cap (+22%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021382254149370288)  2026-02-11T00:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@returnoncap Imagine if [--] months ago someone had told us that Microsoft would sell for 23x NTM S&P Global would sell 20x NTM Id have liked it then and I like it now $MSFT $SPGI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021392645365563846)  2026-02-11T01:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The more I look at my portfolio the more I entertain reducing it to [--] positions. $AMZN $SPGI $MSFT $CP Competing for a fifth spot would be Berkshire and Meta $BRK.B $META @returnoncap Imagine if [--] months ago someone had told us that Microsoft would sell for 23x NTM S&P Global would sell 20x NTM Id have liked it then and I like it now $MSFT $SPGI @returnoncap Imagine if [--] months ago someone had told us that Microsoft would sell for 23x NTM S&P Global would sell 20x NTM Id have liked it then and I like it now $MSFT $SPGI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021393452332958010)  2026-02-11T01:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Is it fair question whether the SaaS model has failed Has not all of the value in SaaS accrued to the SWEs hidden as SBC Take $TEAM for instance a well distributed product set and a market cap that peaked at $125B. Their SBC wipes out more than 100% of the adjusted profits theyve ever made. Like a Portland co-op masquerading as an inclusive Walmart. The employees are the only ones benefitting. Who in their right mind values that at $100 Billion $SNAP is famous for this as well Reminds me of the original Berkshire Hathaway textile business. As buffet recites it all manufacturing improvements"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021453208842010775)  2026-02-11T05:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@LeoNelissen Its still in excess of 20x forward. Those adjusted figures are crap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021649633643319560)  2026-02-11T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"You think youre smart when you say advisors arent worth a 1% fee. I used to say that. The alternative to an advisor is not a low cost S&P [---] fund. The alternative is speculative garbage and the destruction of capital. Tips from the barbecue. $AMC. $OPEN. $ULTY. $MSTY. Or sitting in cash for a decade. Average retail CAGRs were 2% BEFORE Robinhood and free trading came on the scene. Whatever your view on $HOOD being a casino vs a financial platform the following observation is stunning to me: If we include Januarys estimated loss of $(4-5)B Robinhoods customers have made very little money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021671769422340270)  2026-02-11T19:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Guidance Miss for $TYL: guided for 7% organic growth in [----] Market Cap: $13 Billion Current Multiple: 28x Owner Earnings @KobeissiLetter Tyler Technologies plummeting. The pain for VMS continues. $TYL $CSU $MANH $ROP $VEEV https://t.co/zAKrEIXseW @KobeissiLetter Tyler Technologies plummeting. The pain for VMS continues. $TYL $CSU $MANH $ROP $VEEV https://t.co/zAKrEIXseW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021698370746949899)  2026-02-11T21:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@rafoholic @KobeissiLetter Yeah its a fat PEG still. I get that its a durable and strong business but the risk of technological displacement has to be non zero. Hard to justify 25-30x for the growth of a railroad that has a physically insurmountable moat. Or SPGI at 20x now. Amazon in the mid 20s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021700494692086231)  2026-02-11T21:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Any shareholders of Brookfield here Im looking for a thorough breakdown of the business (article Substack podcast etc) if anyone can share. Specially on $BN $BN $BAM $BIP $BEP $BEPC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021702073847513286)  2026-02-11T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"And even if theyre not guilty theyre coming back to reality. $TYL is a good example. Why in the world did this trade up to well over 100x earnings $VEEV is another. Not very familiar but no way it deserved 60x a year ago or 100x in [----]. Or $NOW at 100x last year. Cybersecurity is a group still trading up there. Obviously good companies and strong tailwind so it feels faux pas to say but those multiples leave a lot of room downward whenever the story changes $CRWD $PANW https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021703501500588450 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021703501500588450"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021703501500588450)  2026-02-11T21:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@optimusbutler @LeoNelissen Thanks for sharing. The pricing power is good to see. Slowing growth is not. Sounds like Pepsi the last couple years. And Adobe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021703700218307037)  2026-02-11T21:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I like Morningstar but how do you justify $650 for $TYL 58x for 9% growth. And thats after adjusting for SBC $Morn price target will probably follow the stock price lower as usual. This is why you cant outsource valuation. @KobeissiLetter Tyler Technologies plummeting. The pain for VMS continues. $TYL $CSU $MANH $ROP $VEEV https://t.co/zAKrEIXseW @KobeissiLetter Tyler Technologies plummeting. The pain for VMS continues. $TYL $CSU $MANH $ROP $VEEV https://t.co/zAKrEIXseW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021704708612927687)  2026-02-11T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Muzzlebuster @Ashton_1nvests Any write ups or materials on $BN you recommend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021725424506876373)  2026-02-11T23:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The trade would be long NVDA (capex recipient) and short Msft (software and capex spend) But I dont trade so Im long Amzn for the decade own Meta and Msft too. Valuation is too compelling. Meta ad rev Azure and Microsoft unlikely to falter on CoPilot & office hard enough to blow its position https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021738074276082163 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021738074276082163"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021738074276082163)  2026-02-12T00:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$IONQ $RGTI $QBTS @KobeissiLetter In exchange for minimum funding of $10M. This is not a material amount of funding as currently reported. Quantum remains years away from any economic use case. These companies have zero revenue and $20B valuations 🤦♂ $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS @KobeissiLetter In exchange for minimum funding of $10M. This is not a material amount of funding as currently reported. Quantum remains years away from any economic use case. These companies have zero revenue and $20B valuations 🤦♂ $IONQ $RGTI $QBTS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022075818953126220)  2026-02-12T22:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"be $ttd complain about $goog $meta every qtr complain about $amzn too get owned by a company called $app lovin Why would anyone own The Trade Desk when you can own the walled gardens Jeff Green complains about on every earnings call $TTD TTM Net Income: $417M TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] $GOOG TTM Net Income: $115B TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] $META TTM Net Income: $71B TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] https://t.co/f25fVlIsVx Why would anyone own The Trade Desk when you can own the walled gardens Jeff Green complains about on every earnings call $TTD TTM Net Income: $417M TTM PE: [--] [--] PE: [--] $GOOG TTM Net Income: $115B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022117113394344354)  2026-02-13T01:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@jiujitsu199 @PGorgey51003 @someone2264 Any reason they cant send the compute to AWS Thats a scary thought. but in long run could be great if half our men werent sitting on screens and were out building things instead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022118135600709754)  2026-02-13T01:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@bobspaysubstack Care to share your thoughts on Broadridge Have been looking into them for the first time myself recently"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022127637221847528)  2026-02-13T01:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@buccocapital Quite profitable like Salesforce and Adobe Maybe door #2. At least Salesforce has a chance at it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022129137813700651)  2026-02-13T02:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Two thoughts. [--]. Good point. And this predates the IHS Markit and Refinitiv acquisitions when the earnings were a step higher in quality [--]. No guarantee this repeats. At 5% yield and little to no capital required to achieve 6-9% earnings growth reasonable to expect 10-14% CAGR from here. Could be better but dont be greedy https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022131045089628343 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022131045089628343"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022131045089628343)  2026-02-13T02:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@joinyellowbrick If agents file taxes for us will they still use Intuit Saw you recommended in October. Thoughts changed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022153744822284441)  2026-02-13T03:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@_SeanDavid I dont disagree. Good thinking. Salesforce is also very profitable. Wonder what this looks like for a non profitable SaaS. Will check when I get back"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022161929595441595)  2026-02-13T04:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Curiousjorge65 Easy path to $100B and then $200B. Somewhere around there the market will put 30x on the whole thing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022166913636532629)  2026-02-13T04:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"None of this may be relative to your trade but I see almost 27x operating income 25x actual profits. Pull out the cash and its closer to [--]. Dont love that they dont see margin expansion in [--] but the growth is solid. Not sure how Id justify owning it over meta unless zuck/capex is a no go for some https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022172553780101136 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022172553780101136"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022172553780101136)  2026-02-13T04:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"For Amazon by far. They see unrelenting demand for a 35% margin business. Runways like that come maybe 1-3x in a lifetime. And people want them to do what exactly buy back stock at a 4% earnings yield And not capture 35% ROIC on AWS capacity thats backlogged to the GDP of Greece Build that shit. Clear path to $100B EBIT then $200B. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022194846208077969 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022194846208077969"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022194846208077969)  2026-02-13T06:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@qualtrim It was 100x actual earnings. Now its 50+ trailing 40x forward. Why should it trade any richer than that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022220994174423240)  2026-02-13T08:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I see you were just sharing someone elses pick. How do you think of Jensens analogy to the calculator. Would AI rebuild the calculator or just use it Will AI recreate (or go around) platforms like Salesforce and Intuit or use them There probably still needs to be a UI for review and human input. We could say the agent will just recreate that but why when intuit is so good and pretty cheap already Would love to hear a counter or any thoughts https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022277214059077672 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022277214059077672"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022277214059077672)  2026-02-13T11:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@LandlordRescue @skrickfloss @alphainvestorss @darioperkins Of course. They just dont want to. @grok what are the relative rates of entry into construction masonry steel working and fields and trades that build things for men and women in the US"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022388470728339775)  2026-02-13T19:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"How are you valuing it I agree but curious. Were around 30x TTM so not strikingly cheap until zooming out which few do. I followed for years but never bought until I built a 5+ year model and saw the compounding. Too many tailwinds. I think Amazon has just as much upside and much less uncertainty than the other [--] https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022469935302353286 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022469935302353286"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022469935302353286)  2026-02-14T00:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@undrvalue Nice write up. Staples have aged well. I like the pets theme own Zoetis. Energy too so $BN is on the watchlist. Think its a higher upside and better quality not tied to a commodity price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022484010132508806)  2026-02-14T01:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@nedhawley @Mayhem4Markets What came first the chicken or the egg Adobe once had a premium multiple market thinks its being displaced. No definitive view on Adobe (though I have my doubts) but certainly some softwares in right quadrant will lose and they even now are value traps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022510304991887571)  2026-02-14T03:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ragingbullcap Looks like seasonal to q4. Jun [--] margin lower than [--]. Op inc surely to be negative next qtr. any reason to have any faith in this mgmt team I do think social is quite valuable but the obv answer is usually the right one $meta"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022556854841417988)  2026-02-14T06:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Anyone starting to get [----] vibes here When the metaverse and $zm $tdoc & crypto were going to be all that mattered and $ARKK was taken seriously Yeah $XLE and gold pretty much outperformed everything since then. Were pretty getting a little carried away Despite AI fears software revenue growth is actually improving https://t.co/MWDqgrCwcL Despite AI fears software revenue growth is actually improving https://t.co/MWDqgrCwcL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022561077356298390)  2026-02-14T06:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"And they still cant really do anything meaningful. If it werent for X we wouldnt really know much was going on. I get they can make some UI and ave time for SWEs but nothing else is really getting done no margins have expanded layoffs limited to customer service and admin types. I hope it gets us all off computers and building things in the real world (gradually) but like the death of the dollar it may take decades or a lifetime. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022583631550840948 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022583631550840948"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022583631550840948)  2026-02-14T08:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Mag7 is also eating into infrastructure given hyperscaling so theyre taking more of the economies profit albeit at relatively lighter margin. Theyll find efficiencies and utilize the fastest and the best to cut costs. $Amzn margins only expanding from here. On the [---] - The whole point of AI is ultimately to lower costs for the processing and storage of information support better decisions enhanced efficiencies. It will come through eventually. Most will flow down to the consumers (competitive industries) but the monopolistic types will keep the margin."  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022610641878683969)  2026-02-14T09:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ServoWealth Whats that index Does it match to $DFSV or $AVUV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022611088777548195)  2026-02-14T09:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@CedarStResearch @BastianelliLore That installed based is really valuable. 9/10 people only use ChatGPT and hardly know what Gemini is. As long as OAI holds market share they wont have any trouble with funding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022612418619408437)  2026-02-14T10:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@stockoholics Absolutely not. BIZD is full of junk. Since its inception: $BIZD 125% 6.4% CAGR $ARCC 257% 10.3% CAGR $TSLX 281% 10.8% CAGR $MAIN 405% 13.3% CAGR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022737423093108886)  2026-02-14T18:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@stockoholics Its not the answer. It holds many terrible BDCs and charges you a fee for it. If you want bdc exposure pick a top performer not a basket of losers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022802092092740094)  2026-02-14T22:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ramahluwalia Youd think this is exactly what you want to see from software: The opex is rough tho. Consensus for $NICE margins and earnings to compress in 26"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022929624037208374)  2026-02-15T07:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"So yes on the balance sheet strength But no on the multiples. The lowest multiple for any level of quality is $STZ at 12/13x. I wouldnt argue with a bid there. But $DEO and $BFB are each in the high teens. For low/no growth. Not worth mentioning commodities like $TAP. Would much rather own $ABEV where growth is still strong if I had to. The GLP1 and secular headwinds are real so it becomes tough to justify paying up for low/no growth. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013395598607819159 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013395598607819159"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2013395598607819159)  2026-01-19T23:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@undrvalue I hired a cybersecurity business owner to build something for me. I asked what products hes a fan of and spouted off some big names ($crwd $panw) like I knew something. His answer was short. Sentinel One is the best"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020411151893549266)  2026-02-08T08:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@k3ithmccullough Pitchbook and DBRS is great but the rest of Morningstar data is just the scraping of 10-Ks which anyone can do now. It doesnt have to die today to be a sell. TTM profits have a gain strip that out and 22x TTM still"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2020630680586125682)  2026-02-08T22:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@yummyCenturyEgg Could frame this as $SPGI and $MCO will leverage AI to widen their positions. Why would this lower the barrier to entry 08-today is a long time so interested in your perspective"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021334422377951647)  2026-02-10T21:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"That gave me a thought. If we assumed $SPGI ratings and indices are valued the same as $MCO at 26/27x that implies the rest of SPGI is being valued at 6x. [--] = [----] * (2/3) + (1/3) [--] = [----] + (1/3) = [---] Gonna go on a limb and say the data intelligence energy and mobility divisions are worth more than [---] times earnings. Margins 32-45% HSD growth. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021344856954765735 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021344856954765735"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021344856954765735)  2026-02-10T22:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If we assumed $SPGI ratings and indices are valued the same as $MCO at 26/27x that implies the rest of SPGI is being valued at 6x. [--] = [----] * (2/3) + (1/3) [--] = [----] + (1/3) = [---] Gonna go on a limb and say the data intelligence energy and mobility divisions are worth more than [---] times earnings. Margins 32-45% HSD growth. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021345471504187621 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021345471504187621"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021345471504187621)  2026-02-10T22:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Does Distributable Earnings (DE) accurately reflect owners earnings Over the last decade DE has generally understated the total value created because the portfolio's appreciation has vastly outpaced the cash realizations. During growth/build phases of major projects DE understates value creation. When that created value is harvested through dispositions far above book value DE spikes in ordinarily high. What drove the 22% increase in Fee Related Earnings (FRE) $BN owns 75% of $BAM which now manages $603B in fee-bearing capital. This growth came from $112B in new capital inflows. These clients"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022036182805446804)  2026-02-12T19:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"How is Brookfield positioned in the value chain for data centers and AI Brookfield provides the physical infrastructure. $BEP has signed purchase power agreements to deliver hydro and nuclear energy to Google and Microsoft. $GOOG $MSFT Brookfield also is building its own AI Factories. $BAM will own these physical data centers and the compute in a partnership within Nvidia and the Kuwait Investment Authority. $NVDA How is Brookfields debt structured The $BN debt structure limits risk. About 90% is non-recourse debt at the asset level. In the event of a default lenders only have a claim to that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022036818435486061)  2026-02-12T19:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Zoetis quick hits I know a handful of veterinarians. They prescribe Zoetis meds a lot. They see that accelerating not decelerating. Not perfect but good. Effective. Best option. Softer patent cliff than human drugs. Get to own the therapies much longer. Pet care is a long and strong tailwind. Less people having kids more people treating animals like humans. Since [----] Zoetis has: Doubled revenues (mostly organic) Tripled operating income Reduced share count 14% 33% ROIIC TTM owners earnings: $2.8B Market cap: $56B 20x Soft [--] guide for 3-5% rev growth $3B of OCF next year of which 75% can go"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022238699371757733)  2026-02-13T09:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@marc_slans Is 28x cheap soft jobs and inflation could keep these down. Still 10% or more from the 200WMAs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022469112539267561)  2026-02-14T00:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@MnkeDaniel Just curious why not update it then I appreciate the qualitative research but identifying the businesss earnings power is critical. Especially to identifying intrinsic value right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022762203007590837)  2026-02-14T19:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Midnight_Captl @sama @OpenAI I agree. All regular folk use ChatGPT. Nothing else. As long as they are they are default and installed app leader no trouble getting funding. Looking at leaps on Oracle The future for Oracle is extraordinarily bipolar. My thoughts: Oracle is taking a highly leveraged bet on 2nd gen cloud and compute for AI training. Oracle Cloud Infra (OCI) has massive commitments from OpenAI $Meta xAI the US government and sovereigns to take or pay for https://t.co/OWlY9PCRgm The future for Oracle is extraordinarily bipolar. My thoughts: Oracle is taking a highly leveraged bet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2023091399475003586)  2026-02-15T17:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Morningstar with an update on the brokers tonight: Insurance Brokers: Market Gets Concerned Over Potential AI Disruption Published on Feb [--] [----] Shares of the leading insurance brokers fell mid-to-high single digits on Monday Feb. [--] as the market reacted to reports that OpenAI had approved its first insurance app on ChatGPT. According to a report in Reinsurance News Tuio one of Spain's leading digital insurers has launched an app that lets consumers generate a personalized home insurance quote. Personal coverages are relatively simple and homogenous which could make it easier to develop AI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021107731713900898)  2026-02-10T06:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The market intelligence segment being zeroed by the market still produces 32% margins and nearly a $5B revenue run rate. There is current and terminal value to the data even if it is relegated to a plug-in as part of the worst case scenario they shit the bed on transforming their UX. The balance sheet is effectively a f ton of goodwill and intangibles from the IHS Markit combination. The intangibles are in effect deferred tax assets as they get to expense $1B annually reducing tax by $200M for the next [--] years. This also has the effect of understating earnings power by the $1B paper expense."  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021332433703141733)  2026-02-10T21:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I agree. Am framing the valuation like this The credit ratings and indices divisions alone will approach $4.75B in operating profit next year ( $4B net). This is your $MSCI $MCO equivalent that rightfully deserves 30x earnings. Thats where the market cap is today at $120B. And for kicks you get $2B in profits from Market Intel Energy and Mobility. Another way to frame it: If we assumed $SPGI ratings and indices are valued the same as $MCO at 27x that implies the rest of SPGI is being valued at 6x. [--] = [--] * (2/3) + (1/3) [--] = [--] + (1/3) = [--] For 32%-45% margin businesses growing mid to high"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021649167865852348)  2026-02-11T18:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter Tyler Technologies plummeting. The pain for VMS continues. $TYL $CSU $MANH $ROP $VEEV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021696622263247239)  2026-02-11T21:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@FundamentEdge Would argue PayPal and Qualcomm as well Interesting to see a handful with 2% or higher revisions upward: ServiceNow Fico TakeTwo and Nasdaq among them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021826421883384174)  2026-02-12T05:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Starting this as notes possibly a thread on Brookfield a new study for me. Feel free to chime in if you can add value or find it interesting. Brookfield Corporation $BN operates as the strategic parent of a globally integrated Brookfield family. $BN holds varying ownership stakes in its specialized subsidiaries: Brookfield Asset Management $BAM BN Ownership: 73% The fee-generating engine managing over $1 trillion for institutional and retail clients across infrastructure renewables and credit. Brookfield Wealth Solutions $BNT BN Ownership: 100% An insurance and annuity platform providing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022035650154004521)  2026-02-12T19:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If ChatGPT or Anthropic somehow does become the insurance agent of the future doesnt that make the data $VRSK even more valuable Market cap: $24B Owners earnings: $1B Operating margin: 44% Returns on capital: 30-40% $IAK $KIE $PGR $BRK.B $MRSH Morningstar with an update on the brokers tonight: Insurance Brokers: Market Gets Concerned Over Potential AI Disruption Published on Feb [--] [----] Shares of the leading insurance brokers fell mid-to-high single digits on Monday Feb. [--] as the market reacted to reports that Morningstar with an update on the brokers tonight: Insurance Brokers: Market Gets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022105237226664424)  2026-02-13T00:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@RJCcapital As much as I love Amazon and Microsoft $SPGI has higher margin less competition and is one of a few businesses that do not require incremental capital invested to generate earnings growth. https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021329003907514721s=20 All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step higher after the https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021329003907514721s=20"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022125784014721341)  2026-02-13T01:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Anybody looking for a reason to buy $MTZ or $PWR There are literally not enough crews to work the lines. Or dig the holes. The utilities are at their mercy. Providers like quanta and mastec take all the margin none of the liability. Then they buy the low cost vendors. Henkels & McCoy. Intren. Summit. Wilson. Par West. Underground. Look them up. Then consolidate them. Raise the rates up to the parent level. What are the utilities gonna do Theres no one else to call. This is part of why your utility bill keeps rising. Dont own the utilities because you want exposure to the grid. Send your kid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022213882442657876)  2026-02-13T07:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@CapexAndChill Does the % column indicate position sizing If so the Microsoft buys were small adds. Amazon was bought in enormous size 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022389509384736959)  2026-02-13T19:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@grok who are the [--] largest clients who lease office space from $SLG How might their office needs evolve if they lay off 2-4% of knowledge workers per year for the next decade Could $SLG repurpose this real estate if the office space wasnt needed if so at what cost I also take it a socialist mayor is not helpful for keeping businesses in NYC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022456662385398050)  2026-02-13T23:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@taobanker Sometimes the right answer is obvious although mine looks like this $amzn $spgi $cp $bn $msft $meta $brk.b"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022462534914326540)  2026-02-14T00:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@grok @JackFarley96 @grok not bad. Why do they trade at discounts How do rate cuts help SLG debt They need the [--] yr to come down not the FFR. Whats their avg interest rate and when does their debt mature"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022463098515530154)  2026-02-14T00:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Also wrong about Amazon. Capex concerns bizarre considering $200b backlog aws concentrated to basic migration and 35% margins. Not like oracle siloed to OAI. Complete opposite. AWS grows w or w/o LLMs. Cost leader. Same in retail where ads make them impossible to compete with margins will expand. Business will do $100B EBIT in [--] and then double in [--] yrs. All prices of last [--] years are good prices to accumulate. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022481079299694675 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022481079299694675"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022481079299694675)  2026-02-14T01:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Be careful buying the dip in BDC land. $ARCC & $BXSL portfolio is over 20% software Sixth street considered higher quality over 40% software & NAV just came down 1% in the qtr isnt good $TSLX Lower quality $OBDC actually only 10% software and insiders bought big around $11 so that could be a buy zone. Big discount to NAV at $14.89 $MAIN is well below 10% and probably the safest though you pay 1.8x book still. Probably a good buy closer to $50 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022485742824624337 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022485742824624337"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022485742824624337)  2026-02-14T01:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The software $IGV companies tell us their stock is cheap but they dont buy it (besides Bill $NOW). $ADBE $CRM $TEAM The asset managers however: say less $KKR $ARES $OWL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022495088438648956)  2026-02-14T02:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Thanks for sharing Michael. AI is (eventually) going to be quite disruptive to enterprises in more ways than we can imagine. I see this as a tailwind to Aons consulting and risk management arm. Who else is going to deliver the data to bring clients solutions and why wouldnt that be Aon They will need to utilize AI themselves to stay lean but I struggle to see who exactly would replace them if they are nimble. I dont think theres any chance an agent just gets plugged in. I have seen far too many incompetent management teams to think they can grasp their own problems well let alone utilize new"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022525894020264353)  2026-02-14T04:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@firstadopter This one felt obvious. I sold Goog in my retirement accounts after it doubled hedged in my taxable. Held some cash until deploying into $amzn $msft $spgi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022947540849893883)  2026-02-15T08:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The future for Oracle is extraordinarily bipolar. My thoughts: Oracle is taking a highly leveraged bet on 2nd gen cloud and compute for AI training. Oracle Cloud Infra (OCI) has massive commitments from OpenAI $Meta xAI the US government and sovereigns to take or pay for capacity on SOTA fungible GPU clusters optimized for training. Bypassing a decade of legacy architecture allows Oracle to offer up to 50% more cost performance than $AMZN AWS. If successful OCI ramps from a $10B base to a $166B run rate by [----]. Meanwhile their legacy license business is being upgraded to cloud services."  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022962507338653743)  2026-02-15T09:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@SayNoToTrading @invest091 Nearly identical until the brief divide in [----] $ajg $Bro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2023083143604113842)  2026-02-15T17:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@invest091 @SayNoToTrading Was surprised Aon & marsh not higher but marsh had a horrific 2000-2008. Apparently for good reasons (image attached). Since then correlation has been high $aon $mrsh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2023112473130446918)  2026-02-15T19:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"When I modeled this a year ago I got $200M in operating income for [----] which is pre-tax. With cloud accelerating they may be ahead of schedule but retail margins especially intl will have to get in gear. $200B net income feels quite aggressive but possible by [----] and Id say more than 50% likely now by [----] $amzn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2023115391871176719)  2026-02-15T19:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"All this fuss over the market intelligence segment which is responsible for 20% of operating profits. This unit could be a zero and $SPGI would trade below 25x NTM right now. This isnt an average business. S&P Global earns a 50% operating margin that will step higher after the Mobility spin off. Unlike the rest of the market S&Ps earnings growth requires virtually no incremental capital. So if the FCF yield is 5% they can distribute ALL of that to shareholders and still grow EPS at a 10-14% CAGR (buybacks help here). This is part of what makes $SPGI a gem. Most businesses have to plow FCF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2021329003907514721)  2026-02-10T21:02Z [----] followers, 24.4K engagements


"Sounds like this is why oracle swaps have ramped so high. On the other end AWS is concentrated to traditional cloud migration. Theyre the low cost leader for basic cloud services and we still have about half the internet running locally on client servers somewhere. Theyre backlogs all [--] have is insane so much more likely power is the constraint not demand. Too many tailwinds for compute not enough electricity https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022569896811598259 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022569896811598259"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022569896811598259)  2026-02-14T07:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@JulianKlymochko Which bdc is at .77 p/b Sounds like OBDC which is 10% software. TSLX is 40%. Arcc and bxsl 20%. Fear is probably overdone here but could be concerns on pik and those who take equity positions like ares"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022581792340152631)  2026-02-14T08:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The other side of this for $ORCL What if OpenAl flops Oracle is building standardized Nvidia Blackwell and Hopper superclusters. These clusters are the "gold standard" for LLM training if OpenAl fails that capacity would get bids from the likes of Meta and xAI The power and cooling infrastructure is just as valuable. Oracle has secured 1GW+ sites with on-site power generation and "closed-loop" cooling-resources that are currently the primary bottleneck for the entire industry. Thoughts @oguzerkan I am long $AMZN but starting to find Oracle interesting here. Dario Amodei perfectly explains why"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2022604189957001690)  2026-02-14T09:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@FishtownCap @Tintincapital Should revisit this for aws acceleration and revisit retail assumptions. Market is discounting the capex hard but the investment is prudent imo and execution has been solid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/DDBlakeFischer/status/2023116461158309959)  2026-02-15T19:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

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