#  @_JackSalmon_ Jack Salmon Jack Salmon posts on X about debt, inflation, rates, in the the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1157855351540256768/interactions)  - [--] Week [---------] +282,383% - [--] Month [---------] +168,086% - [--] Months [---------] +22,553% - [--] Year [---------] +234% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1157855351540256768/posts_active)  ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1157855351540256768/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +6.50% - [--] Month [-----] +6.70% - [--] Months [-----] +11% - [--] Year [-----] +24% ### CreatorRank: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1157855351540256768/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #2305 [countries](/list/countries) [stocks](/list/stocks) #1218 [nfl](/list/nfl) #1443 [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [currencies](/list/currencies) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) **Social topic influence** [debt](/topic/debt) #1523, [inflation](/topic/inflation), [rates](/topic/rates), [in the](/topic/in-the), [tariffs](/topic/tariffs), [gdp](/topic/gdp), [investment](/topic/investment), [the first](/topic/the-first), [fed](/topic/fed), [countries](/topic/countries) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@dandolfa](/creator/undefined) [@rominaboccia](/creator/undefined) [@catoinstitute](/creator/undefined) [@housebudgetgop](/creator/undefined) [@reparrington](/creator/undefined) [@philipwallach](/creator/undefined) [@marcgoldwein](/creator/undefined) [@boydadfarmer](/creator/undefined) [@politicalshrmp](/creator/undefined) [@asymmetricinfo](/creator/undefined) [@isaactdozier](/creator/undefined) [@mtkonczal](/creator/undefined) [@jacksalmon](/creator/undefined) [@veroderugy](/creator/undefined) [@barneyxbt](/creator/undefined) [@rasterblath](/creator/undefined) [@fubo500](/creator/undefined) [@0xjoggie](/creator/undefined) [@votelabonte](/creator/undefined) [@nickballknower](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Janet (JANET)](/topic/janet) [April (APRIL)](/topic/april) [Dogecoin (DOGE)](/topic/doge) [RefundCoin (RFD)](/topic/refund) [Spike (SPIKE)](/topic/spike) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "$430bn in economic stimulus set to go out to high income college grads and now Californians are receiving stimulus checks of up to $1050. Extinguishing a fire with gasoline šš»" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1581742215558496256) 2022-10-16T20:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Inflation has pushed the debt ratio down to just under 94% of GDP. Yet rising interest rates mean that debt servicing costs hit a new high of 2.41% of GDP (annualized) in March" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1644056959253991429) 2023-04-06T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Consistent with the economic literature a new study finds that US tariffs on Chinese goods are shouldered by US businesses and consumer. Specifically 93% of the cost is shouldered by US importers. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfmabstract_id=4477985 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfmabstract_id=4477985" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1678815651488464921) 2023-07-11T17:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The Fed made the right decision in raising rates today. Base effects mean that June inflation data was rosier than we might see in the coming months. It is possible that inflation sticks around 3-4% for some time with the risk of entrenching expectations of high inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1684262427452375061) 2023-07-26T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "While the latest CPI data and forthcoming PCE data shows inflation falling core prices are a better predictor of future inflation trends. Core CPI is 4.9% (4% 3mo average) core PCE is 4.6% (4.2% 3mo average) and median CPI is 4.4%. Rent inflation continues to be 5-6%" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1684262428974907417) 2023-07-26T18:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Earnings growth is within the 3.5-4% range which doesnt suggest inflation falling back to target anytime soon. Meanwhile the labor market continues to run hot and NGDP is running almost 8% above trend as of May" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1684262430367526912) 2023-07-26T18:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Also worth noting the Fed targets average inflation (AIT) over time. If we use a 2-3-yr lookback of PCE (Crdia 2022) then average inflation is 5%. If we use 3-yr forward looking expectations then average inflation is 3%. Either way average inflation is well above target" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1684262431684456448) 2023-07-26T18:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Half of all public debt matures within 3-years. For the past year this short-term debt has been (and continues) rolling over into treasuries with yields of 4.5--5.5%. The debt ratio is 96%. The math isn't looking great" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1690062250617282560) 2023-08-11T18:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Consistent with prior studies the impact of energy shocks on US core inflation has been negligible. The focus on supply chains was always a distraction from the real issue--demand" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1691081402320572416) 2023-08-14T13:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "About half (55%) of the increase in producer prices (PPI) is the result of demand not supply factors. Celasun et al. "Supply Bottlenecks: Where Why How Much and What Next" IMF Working Papers [----] no. [---] (2022) 1" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1691181597356081152) 2023-08-14T20:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "While energy price fluctuations have been a key factor in driving core inflation trends in Europe this hasnt been the case in the US" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1691181599126122496) 2023-08-14T20:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "New tariffs of up 123% to be levied on food can metal imports starting in January because steelworkers union complained that imports were too cheap. The result American consumers will pay up to 30% more for canned food" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1692910567520940035) 2023-08-19T14:45Z [---] followers, 20.2K engagements "Almost [--] years ago I termed the phenomena of economists forecasting future trends on past or present conditions of low interest rates the fallacy of low-trending interest rates infinitum" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1694406401467011193) 2023-08-23T17:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Basing current and future fiscal policy on interest rate conditions seen during the decade following [----] always carried significant risks particularly as trends always break at some point and interest rates would return to historical norms eventually" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1694406403501244568) 2023-08-23T17:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "No Low Interest Rates Did Not Justify Adding Trillions of Dollars to the National Debt Especially because the once-dismissed possibility of rising rates is now a reality" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1712888386581942604) 2023-10-13T17:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The same people who spent a decade telling us "deficits don't matter" now tell us to worry about deficits. Matt Yglesias 2016: we should borrow more Matt Yglesias 2020: deficit is abstract political football. Matt Yglesias 2023: deficit matters now" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1714280181127659784) 2023-10-17T14:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MarcGoldwein at current and prospective interest rate levels nominal and real Federal debt service is likely to be low not high by historical standards over the next decade. - Furman and Summers 2020" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1714292981287796983) 2023-10-17T14:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Powell 2023: "We dont comment on fiscal policy" Powell 2020: "This is the time to use the great fiscal power of the United States to do what we can to support the economy"" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1717224746461679950) 2023-10-25T17:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The recent increase in interest payments on public debt is just the beginning of a long spike in high servicing costs that could last many years. Spikes in interest payments lag spikes in interest rates by roughly the length of average maturity give or take. š§µ" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1730298360978968787) 2023-11-30T18:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "For example the double digit interest rates of 1980-85 were followed by spikes in interest payments/GDP from about [----] to [----] (see below). Average debt maturity in 80-85 was 4-5 years (compared to [--] years today)" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1730298362610528584) 2023-11-30T18:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Some might argue that interest rates of 11-12% in the 80's are notably higher than todays. But this misses the fact that the stock of debt/GDP today is 4-times larger. Servicing 25% of GDP debt with 12% rates is cheaper than servicing 100% at 4-5%" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1730298364338532746) 2023-11-30T18:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@mtkonczal @MarcGoldwein" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1739030775234777190) 2023-12-24T21:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "January CPI inflation forecasts: CPI = 2.9% (Cleveland Fed Deutsche Bank RBC SocGen) = 3.0% (TDS NBF Wells Fargo) Core = 3.8% (Cleveland Fed RBC TDS NBF SocGen) = 3.7% (Deutsche Bank Wells Fargo)" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1757146749766930725) 2024-02-12T20:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "For every $1 in tax revenues the government raised in February it spent $2.09. Net interest payments exceeded defense spending yet again" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1767617316139700406) 2024-03-12T18:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "71% of surveyed economists expect [--] or fewer Fed rate cuts this year (2024). 37% expect [--] or [--] rate cuts. 29% expect [--] or more. Most expect the first rate cut in July (29%) or September (29%)" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1770455348488372304) 2024-03-20T14:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The data and findings from these Piketty Saez and Zucman (PSZ) studies have been found to be deeply flawed and misleading. š§µ This semester I've been teaching "Economic Inequality and Growth" at @UCBerkeley. This is a thread with some of my favorite graphs. First the headline everyone's-seen-it graph: falling then rising income inequality in Anglophone countries. https://t.co/Ffq6oiIeos This semester I've been teaching "Economic Inequality and Growth" at @UCBerkeley. This is a thread with some of my favorite graphs. First the headline everyone's-seen-it graph: falling then rising income" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1780972640729026958) 2024-04-18T14:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Q: Tripling tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers. Weighted Response: 87% Agree 2% Disagree" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1786078408474005842) 2024-05-02T17:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Q: The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses. Weighted Response: 79% Disagree 6% Agree" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1786078410306933104) 2024-05-02T17:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "In April the treasury rolled over $2.3 trillion in debt at an average interest rate of 3.23%. This is the same average interest rate paid in late [----] (blue line). The difference is our debt is double what it was then so our interest/GDP is double too (red line)" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1787914882286756084) 2024-05-07T18:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This week Sens Vance Hawley and Rubio asked Biden to block Nippon Steel take-over. 98% of economist don't agree the acquisition will hurt the US steel industry. 95% agree it will cause no measurable damage to the US economy" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1789010083772354705) 2024-05-10T19:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Fiscal support initially (in 2020) contributed positively to aggregate productivity but as the economy recovered it quickly became distortive (in 2021). ECB study on pandemic support and productivity in Europe: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op341dfff9548ed.en.pdf https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op341dfff9548ed.en.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1790071794365313107) 2024-05-13T17:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "My latest at NRO on tackling the fiscal roots of inflation: https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/05/beyond-the-fed-tackling-the-fiscal-roots-of-inflation/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/05/beyond-the-fed-tackling-the-fiscal-roots-of-inflation/" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1791103874029244736) 2024-05-16T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Weighted response from panel of US economists 1) tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher prices of EVs in the US. 2) tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers. 1) 88% agree (4% disagree) 2) 70% agree (9% disagree)" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1798099214561636503) 2024-06-04T21:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Poterba and Summers (1985) Our results suggest that dividend taxes reduce corporate investment and exacerbate distortions in the intersectoral and intertemporal allocation of capital" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1800575814700052863) 2024-06-11T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Joint Economic Committee (1997) a capital gains tax reduction would lower the cost of capital boost investment and stimulate economic growth" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1800575816507760812) 2024-06-11T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Alan Greenspan noted in [----] that capital gains taxes major impact is to impede entrepreneurial activity and capital formation. While all taxes impede economic growth to one extent or another the capital gains tax is at the far end of the scale."" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1800575818151678308) 2024-06-11T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Becker et al. (2013) Payout taxes have a large impact on the dynamics of corporate investment and growth. Investment is locked in in profitable firms when payout is heavily taxed. Thus apart from any aggregate effects payout taxes change the allocation of capital" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1800575823185097147) 2024-06-11T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Gentry (2016) higher capital gains tax rates are associated with a reduction in state-level disbursements from venture capital fundsin states with higher capital gains tax rates fewer entrepreneurs are starting businesses that seek venture capital funding" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1800575824963543373) 2024-06-11T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Edwards and Todtenhaupt (2018) "find evidence consistent with this capital gains tax reduction increasing the amount of investment in start-up firms per funding round by about 12%. The effect is stronger in start-up firms that are likely to have greater administrative capacity."" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1800575827286900803) 2024-06-11T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "For the 5th month in a row since Javier Milei became President Argentina has posted a budget surplus" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1803124076149362855) 2024-06-18T17:54Z [---] followers, 1.3M engagements "*Slight correction Javier Milei oversees 5th monthly budget (not just primary) surplus For the 5th month in a row since Javier Milei became President Argentina has posted a budget surplus. https://t.co/w4Mimu97JM For the 5th month in a row since Javier Milei became President Argentina has posted a budget surplus. https://t.co/w4Mimu97JM" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1803124931946823989) 2024-06-18T17:57Z [---] followers, 23.3K engagements "@31_skinny Reduced public spending eliminated subsidies devaluation reduced provincial aid rolled back the bloated payrolls of public servants. This is all before he passed [---] articles of spending reform last week. It's a great start" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1803839771552182783) 2024-06-20T17:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@su_tomasz The report forecasts output will contract this year but also that in H2 "real wages begin to recover and investment picks up in response to reforms". Adding "indicators point to a possible stabilization of economic activity starting in April" For context GDP contracted in 2023" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1803854632453624123) 2024-06-20T18:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Brian has a plan to stabilize and reduce the public debt ratio to 73% of GDP in 30-years. Failure to act will result in debt soaring to 236% or 300% of GDP by [----] (depending on interest rates). NEW from me: When I criticize lawmakers for refusing to address soaring long-term debt many respond "OK so where's your plan" Well here is my 30-year plan to stabilize the federal debt.š Specifically its an update to my [----] blueprint. š§µ https://t.co/uOtjOdyFPp NEW from me: When I criticize lawmakers for refusing to address soaring long-term debt many respond "OK so where's your plan" Well here is" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1806414900656324675) 2024-06-27T19:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "For the 6th month in a row since Javier Milei became President Argentina has posted a budget surplus. AFUERA" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1813282648141267255) 2024-07-16T18:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "The average interest rate paid on interest bearing public debt in July reached 3.33% or 3.25% of GDP annualized. In July the Treasury rolled over almost $2.2 trillion in debt" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1821618954789384484) 2024-08-08T18:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "In [----] Larry Summers warned that the ARP would cause inflationary pressures to mount. Jason Furman noted that ARP was too big for the moment Most economist ignored them. Many continue to deny the underlying drivers of 2021-23 inflation. š§µ" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1823798970319286546) 2024-08-14T19:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Forbes et al. "Monetary Policy Responses to the Post-Pandemic Inflation." CEPR Discussion Paper [----]. 58% of the 2020-23 U.S. inflation spike was driven by demand and monetary shocks vs 42% by supply shock" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1823798972269428863) 2024-08-14T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Firat Melih and Otso Hao. "Demand vs. Supply Decomposition of Inflation: Cross-Country Evidence with Applications." IMF Working Papers [----] no. [---] (2023) [--]. Post-pandemic inflation surge in the U.S. was about 50/50 supply/demand driven" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1823798974488391982) 2024-08-14T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "For the figure below the black bars illustrate the evolution of inflation originating from unfunded transfer shocks. The gray and white bars highlight the role of other policy shocks and nonpolicy shocks" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1823798984420548673) 2024-08-14T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "ARPA fiscal stimulus accounts for approximately half (3.5ppt) of the increase in inflation with cost-push shocks contributing a similar amount (cost-push being transitory factor). Bianchi and Melosi. "Inflation as a Fiscal Limit." Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 2022" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1823798986832302098) 2024-08-14T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The impact of fiscal stimulus was highest in the US. It was responsible for 2.5ppt (half) of excess inflation in Q4 [----]. De Soyres et al. "Fiscal policy and excess inflation during Covid-19: a cross-country view." Federal Reserve 2022-07-15 (2022)" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1823798988803600799) 2024-08-14T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "De Soyres et al. updated their analysis in [----] (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review) and found that fiscal stimulus was responsible for 2.6ppt of excess inflation (up from 2.5ppt) when including [----] data" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1823798991227904279) 2024-08-14T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "More than half (55%) of the increase in producer prices (PPI) is the result of demand not supply factors. Celasun et al. "Supply Bottlenecks: Where Why How Much and What Next" IMF Working Papers [----] no. [---] (2022) 1" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1823799000023359536) 2024-08-14T19:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "While energy price fluctuations have been a key factor in driving core inflation trends in Europe this hasnt been the case in the US. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-energy-shocks-core-inflation-us-and-euro-area https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-energy-shocks-core-inflation-us-and-euro-area" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1823799002590273974) 2024-08-14T19:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "For a panel of [--] economies (2000-22) every [--] ppt increase in the debt ratio reduces real GDP by 0.015% after [--] years and persistently increases the inflation rate. The negative growth effect is far stronger for high debt (41% GDP) countries. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261560624001542 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261560624001542" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1825589184142389318) 2024-08-19T17:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Latest in my series of pieces on tax expenditures for the chopping block. State and Local Tax Deduction (SALT): https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/tax-expenditures-for-the-chopping-b5b https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/tax-expenditures-for-the-chopping-b5b" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1826623872692879605) 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Under current law Treasury estimates it costs $1.24 trillion over a decade. If the $10k cap is allowed to expire it will cost around $2 trillion in forgone revenues over a decade (2026-35)" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1826623874991366482) 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "SALT only benefits those at the very top of the income scale. In [----] less than [--] million tax returns deducted state and local income taxesjust 7% of returns" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1826623877164007862) 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "99% of the value of tax benefits from the SALT deduction goes to earners making more than $100000 a year. 68% of the benefits go to an even smaller group of less than [---] million earners making more than $500000 a year" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1826623878996918767) 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Those high-income taxpayers who benefit from the SALT deduction tend to be concentrated in affluent states such as California New York New Jersey Connecticut and Illinois. It also contributes to economic segregation by subsidizing wealthy communities at the expense of poorer" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1826623880938852561) 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "It also allows state governments to hike taxes on those that are deductible shifting the burden to federal taxpayers. This results in state and local tax burdens being about 13%-14% higher" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1826623882830475541) 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "SALT deduction also distorts market signals and violates the principles of equal tax treatment. Preferential tax treatment of government service provision crowds out the private sector" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1826623884776669276) 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The most fiscally prudent action would be the full repeal of the SALT deduction. Policymakers could still demonstrate fiscal rectitude without full repeal by extending the existing $10000 SALT deduction cap beyond 2025" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1826623887133876658) 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Policymakers could also fix the SALT work-arounds enacted in [--] states that allow some businesses to skirt the SALT cap entirely. Because of these work-arounds the SALT cap has only raised about 80%-85% of what it was intended to raise" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1826623888924835869) 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "While full repeal of the SALT deduction would be the most fiscally responsible course of action extending the existing $10000 cap would send a strong signal that policymakers are committed to addressing the nation's fiscal challenges" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1826623891370115465) 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "2022 weighted survey of [--] economists: A significant factor behind todays higher US inflation is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins. 79% Disagree 10% Agree" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1829163242859704433) 2024-08-29T14:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Second survey statement: Antitrust interventions could successfully reduce US inflation over the next [--] months. 84% Disagree 4% Agree" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1829163245569196257) 2024-08-29T14:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Third survey statement: Price controls as deployed in the 1970s could successfully reduce US inflation over the next [--] months. 65% Disagree 24% Agree" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1829163248790450637) 2024-08-29T14:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "New NBER working paper: Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forcesIn comparison the inflationary impact of adverse supply shocks was less pronounced https://www.nber.org/papers/w32859 In [----] Larry Summers warned that the ARP would cause inflationary pressures to mount. Jason Furman noted that ARP was too big for the moment Most economist ignored them. Many continue to deny the underlying drivers of 2021-23 inflation. š§µ https://www.nber.org/papers/w32859 In [----] Larry Summers warned that the ARP would cause inflationary pressures to mount. Jason Furman" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1829297566174818386) 2024-08-29T23:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "The average interest rate paid on interest bearing public debt in July reached 3.35% or 3.29% of GDP annualized" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1832150113483157842) 2024-09-06T20:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements ""She calls it the billionaire minimum tax but it would be better to call it the capital markets death tax. It would crush the U.S. stock market grind initial-public offerings to a halt and hit you in the https://www.wsj.com/opinion/you-would-pay-harriss-wealth-tax-billionaire-minimum-investors-2d93e972mod=opinion_lead_pos5 https://www.wsj.com/opinion/you-would-pay-harriss-wealth-tax-billionaire-minimum-investors-2d93e972mod=opinion_lead_pos5" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1833529407862149615) 2024-09-10T15:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This tracks with China's billion+ dollar start-ups over the past decade: One of the most striking charts this year: Chinas startup ecosystem has almost completely collapsed in the last [--] years. https://t.co/Ynsf01tWbd One of the most striking charts this year: Chinas startup ecosystem has almost completely collapsed in the last [--] years. https://t.co/Ynsf01tWbd" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1834239221650907504) 2024-09-12T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Looking at new billion+ dollar start-ups created since [----] per [--] million people Bay Area entrepreneurs are starting 32X as many Unicorn businesses as Shanghai entrepreneurs per capita" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1834239225144705250) 2024-09-12T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "44 economists were asked [--] questions on economic policy ideas. Q1 - Giving the President more influence over monetary policy would lead to substantially worse monetary policy decisions. Agree = 93% Disagree = 5%" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1834250010935910489) 2024-09-12T15:17Z [---] followers, 92.9K engagements "Q2 - Imposing tariffs results in a substantial portion of the tariffs being borne by consumers of the country that enacts the tariffs through price increases. Agree = 96% Disagree = 3%" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1834250012949180586) 2024-09-12T15:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "In the first [--] months of FY24 for every $1 in taxes collected [--] cents was spent on servicing public debt. If you combined all federal transport spending federal education spending & all veterans benefits & services it still wouldn't come close to debt interest spending" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1834256363347640558) 2024-09-12T15:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Another study on fiscal inflation: "evidence largely corresponds to the period when the pandemic fiscal packages were adopted and suggests that these transfers had long-lasting effects on inflation and contribute to explaining the persistence of core services inflation."" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1836039307779363078) 2024-09-17T13:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The fed should be careful about cutting FFR too much too fast. A 25-bps cut would be more prudent than 50-bps. Core CPI is still 3.3% and economists dont expect core PCE to fall below 2% for at least a year or more. We shouldnt risk reigniting inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1836450396434210919) 2024-09-18T17:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Earlier this week I testified before the Senate Budget Committee arguing that more spending deficits and debt are not the solution to housing affordability. More deficit financed demand-inducing spending would only make matters worse. https://www.budget.senate.gov/hearings/watchhearingid=FB50A5AC-3590-4515-B0AE-357A2F8013D2 https://www.budget.senate.gov/hearings/watchhearingid=FB50A5AC-3590-4515-B0AE-357A2F8013D2" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1839732913639715242) 2024-09-27T18:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "CBO monthly budget data just dropped. Debt servicing cost/GDP for FY24 is 3.27%. Budget deficit/GDP for FY24 is 6.3%. The last time debt servicing costs were 3% was [----] (3.06%) The last time deficit/GDP was this large with 4% unemployment was NEVER" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1843717734120730738) 2024-10-08T18:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The fallacy of greedflation in one image. Just in case the data isnt enough here are few empirical studies on the topic of markups and inflation š§µ" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1844813551845658931) 2024-10-11T18:53Z [---] followers, 251.7K engagements "Weighing markups by industry costs a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco study found that aggregate markups stayed flat during the period 2020-23. Conclusion rising markups have not been a main driver of the recent surge in inflation https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2024-12.pdf https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2024-12.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1844813553913782491) 2024-10-11T18:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "A Reserve Bank of Australia study using firm-level data found just 3.55% of cumulative inflation is attributable to markups. The authors conclude: markups mechanism does not seem to be a plausible source of inflation amplification https://ideas.repec.org/p/rba/rbaacp/acp2023-05.html https://ideas.repec.org/p/rba/rbaacp/acp2023-05.html" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1844813558615273834) 2024-10-11T18:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas study found that an increase in markups likely provides a signal that price setters expect persistent increases in future costs of production. Higher markups therefore reflect higher (anticipated) input costs for firms https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/9329/EconomicReviewV108N1GloverMustredelRiovonEndeBecker.pdf https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/9329/EconomicReviewV108N1GloverMustredelRiovonEndeBecker.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1844813560154673345) 2024-10-11T18:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@naked_delta Youre correct that most of the inflation we saw was fiscal (over spending). I have a thread with over a dozen studies confirming as much. In [----] Larry Summers warned that the ARP would cause inflationary pressures to mount. Jason Furman noted that ARP was too big for the moment Most economist ignored them. Many continue to deny the underlying drivers of 2021-23 inflation. š§µ In [----] Larry Summers warned that the ARP would cause inflationary pressures to mount. Jason Furman noted that ARP was too big for the moment Most economist ignored them. Many continue to deny the underlying" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1845228835689971830) 2024-10-12T22:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@benfoxxxxx PPI is just another measure of inflation. It measures the weighted-average change in the prices domestic producers receivefor their output. The Bloomberg chart conflates rising input costs (supply-side inflation) with rising margins (profit-driven inflation)" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1846619152464990586) 2024-10-16T18:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Thomas Laubach updated his [----] analysis in [----] with a new study in the Journal of European Economic Association. He found estimated ranging between [--] and [---] basis points" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1846630051674030539) 2024-10-16T19:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "In an IMF Working Paper Kumar and Baldacci (2010) estimate that the impact of a [--] ppt increase in the debt ratio was a large [----] basis point increase in the long-term interest rate" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1846630053120970922) 2024-10-16T19:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@joshrauh Pre-2021 many economists were convinced that interest rates would never notably increase again due to other "structural factors". I wonder what additional factors they refer to now. It can't be foreign demand for U.S. securities:" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1846644038973415661) 2024-10-16T20:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "My 6th piece in a series on tax expenditures. We're set to spend $151bn on college tax credits in the coming decade. These expenditures are badly targeted and have no impact on enrollment decisions. Today on @Discourse_Mag @_JackSalmon_ explains that college tax credits dont work as intendedthey dont incentivize more people to enroll in college and most of the benefit doesnt reach the students who need it most. https://t.co/pW7sJcFoJj Today on @Discourse_Mag @_JackSalmon_ explains that college tax credits dont work as intendedthey dont incentivize more people to enroll in college and most of" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1846921921432019295) 2024-10-17T14:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I dug into how CBO determines changes in "labor force growth". It is based entirely on the "Demographics" literature. Demographics is also a key factor in "private domestic and foreign savings" @_JackSalmon_ Oof. They cite "slower growth of the labor force more private foreign and domestic savings available for investment and slower growth of TFP". https://t.co/y9gAokL9be @_JackSalmon_ Oof. They cite "slower growth of the labor force more private foreign and domestic savings available for investment and slower growth of TFP". https://t.co/y9gAokL9be" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1846942361089372336) 2024-10-17T15:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "They seem to put a lot of weight on 1980-2015 trends largely ignoring the literature on future expectations in demographic changes and subsequent changes in savings labor force participation etc. They even acknowledge that this is challenging and contributes to uncertainty" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1846942363995770998) 2024-10-17T15:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "However forecasts of demographic effects on interest rates through [----] range from depressing rates by [--] bps (Carvalho et al. 2016) to increasing rates by [--] bps (Rachel & Smith 2015). There is a lot of uncertainty on the impact of demographics on interest rates going forward" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1846942367032488106) 2024-10-17T15:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Goodhart and Pradhan (2017) argue that future demographic changes could raise interest rates as boomers spend down their savings. Rachel & Smith (2015) note that demographic effect on rates will gradually reverse" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1846942368395620554) 2024-10-17T15:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "High interest rates don't just matter for newly issued debt and current budget deficits. They also matter for rolling over existing debt. In September alone the Treasury rolled over $2.56 trillion in securities. The average interest rate on these rollovers was 3.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1847296328918794594) 2024-10-18T15:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects U.S. public debt will reach 166% of GDP by [----]. Their forecast assumes modest rises in interest rates. But are they underestimating how much rising debt will impact future borrowing costs https://libertylensecon.substack.com/p/long-term-interest-rate-projections https://libertylensecon.substack.com/p/long-term-interest-rate-projections" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1849094478373511177) 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "CBOs model assumes each 1% rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio adds just [--] basis points (bps) to interest rates. Yet recent studies suggest the impact could be closer to [--] bps or moredouble their estimate" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1849094480135160262) 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Why does this matter If the debt-to-GDP ratio impacts rates more than CBO assumes future borrowing costs could soar. Instead of 4.4% by [----] 10-year treasury rates could hit 5.8%magnifying the fiscal burden on the U.S. government" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1849094482018378019) 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "One reason for concern is the U.S.'s short-term debt maturity structure. More than half of federal debt must be refinanced within [--] years making us vulnerable to sudden interest rate hikes" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1849094483540910176) 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "With $2.56 trillion in debt maturing in September [----] alone any rate hikes will quickly increase costs driving up the cost of debt servicing and squeezing the federal budget" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1849094484975325416) 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Demographic changes and total factor productivity (TFP) growth are historically unpredictable. Some experts argue that an aging population might actually drive rates up as (Boomer Gen) retirees spend down savings" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1849094487798169609) 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "CBOs optimism could mean were not fully prepared for the fiscal risks of rising interest rates. Given the U.S.'s growing debt we need more cautious assumptions to avoid a budget crisis in the future" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1849094489366823188) 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Even small adjustments to CBO's debt impact assumptionsraising from [--] bps to [--] bpswould show how much more vulnerable we are to rising interest costs. We must rethink these assumptions for a more realistic outlook on our fiscal future. #Economy #DebtCrisis #FiscalPolicy" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1849094490780283023) 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Thanks for reading Follow me for more insights on public debt interest rates and fiscal policy. Read the full article here: https://libertylensecon.substack.com/p/long-term-interest-rate-projections https://libertylensecon.substack.com/p/long-term-interest-rate-projections" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1849094492239823198) 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "New World Bank study on fiscal multipliers and debt: Countries with debt/GDP 30% have impact multipliers of [---] and long term [---]. Countries with debt/GDP 80% have impact multiplier of [--] and long term [---]. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/a5a06649-8881-43bb-903b-e1302a7289f1 Yet another study finds that fiscal multiplier are notably lower in high-debt countries. In this case spending multipliers in high-debt countries are about half of those in low-debt countries. https://t.co/Wdx2PNMuKd https://t.co/UBKHJ2YPmw" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1851696495818359115) 2024-10-30T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Spending rescaled by outstanding debt and its maturity reveals a very clear relation between spending and inflation (2020-23) https://t.co/GzHs5JsLeH https://t.co/GzHs5JsLeH" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1858506966823293292) 2024-11-18T13:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Peter Orszag says that as much as 79% of the rise inflation in recent years was due to supply chain variables. The truth is while supply chain variables were notable in [----] they played a very minor role in inflation trends from [----] onwards" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1861080549336441249) 2024-11-25T16:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Orszag claims that countries with greater levels of fiscal stimulus did not experience higher levels of inflation (chart on left). However rescaled by outstanding debt and its maturity reveals a very clear relation between spending and inflation (chart on right)" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1861080550972235824) 2024-11-25T16:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements ""It takes on average [---] years to litigate a NEPA challenge which is on top of the four or so years to get a federal permit." NEPA imposed $229 bn in reg costs on infrastructure projects in [----]. NEPA reform should be a priority for @elonmusk @DOGE https://www.wsj.com/opinion/supreme-court-permitting-case-nepa-seven-county-infrastructure-coalition-fcc26ca5mod=opinion_lead_pos2 https://www.wsj.com/opinion/supreme-court-permitting-case-nepa-seven-county-infrastructure-coalition-fcc26ca5mod=opinion_lead_pos2" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1866510792797163698) 2024-12-10T15:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Sending out "inflation refund" checks = adding water to a sinking ship. Not to mention NY needs an additional $74.7 billion to cover its bills with almost $86 billion in unfunded retiree health care benefits. https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/new-york-inflation-refund-checks/ https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/new-york-inflation-refund-checks/" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1866533458589147143) 2024-12-10T17:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Janet Yellen now says: I am concerned about fiscal sustainability and I am sorry that we havent made more progress I believe that the deficit needs to be brought down especially now that were in an environment of higher interest rates. However" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1867249471882436947) 2024-12-12T16:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Just [--] years ago Janet Yellen said: If we ended up with a slightly higher interest rate environment it would actually be a plus for societys point of view and the Feds point of view and with interest rates at historic lows the smartest thing we can do is act big" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1867249473279164627) 2024-12-12T16:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@dandolfa @RominaBoccia @CatoInstitute @housebudgetGOP @RepArrington @PhilipWallach Incorrect. It ism in fact both. Your chart actually proves the fallacy youve been pushing for years. Those periods of rg coincided with massive increases in the debt burden. Not to mention these theories are entirely ignorant of the fact that we have budget deficits if 6%" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1868830545016504831) 2024-12-17T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@dandolfa @RominaBoccia @CatoInstitute @housebudgetGOP @RepArrington @PhilipWallach In good times and 15% in bad times. It was these very fallacies rooted in the idea of low interest rates infinitun that have fueled irresponsible fiscal policy over the years" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1868830874219036924) 2024-12-17T01:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@dandolfa @RominaBoccia @CatoInstitute @housebudgetGOP @RepArrington @PhilipWallach While rg creates theoretical space for fiscal expansion this space is finite. Over time increasing debt raises r narrowing or reversing the rg gap. Excessive government borrowing can crowd out private investment eventually leading to higher interest rates and slower growth" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1869097865991290967) 2024-12-17T19:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@dandolfa @RominaBoccia @CatoInstitute @housebudgetGOP @RepArrington @PhilipWallach High debt levels can also create vulnerability to crises. If markets lose confidence default risk premiums can spiral pushing rates higher and compounding the debt problem. Very few believed high interest rates or inflation were a real risk in early [----] (exl L Summers)" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1869098140332405181) 2024-12-17T19:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@dandolfa @RominaBoccia @CatoInstitute @housebudgetGOP @RepArrington @PhilipWallach The U.S. is running structurally high deficits (6% of GDP in normal times 15% in crises) far exceeding the steady 1% primary deficit that rg theoretically allows without raising debt-to-GDP ratios. Not to mention quickly approaching trust fund shortfalls" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1869098469492932797) 2024-12-17T19:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@dandolfa @RominaBoccia @CatoInstitute @housebudgetGOP @RepArrington @PhilipWallach Relying on rg over such long horizons is risky as market dynamics can shift unexpectedlybond vigilantes might not wait. High-debt countries are more likely to experience a shift from a negative to a positive rg regime" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1869100400361746582) 2024-12-17T19:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Its easy to see why the Fed is cautioning about further rate cuts. The market is expecting December CPI to come in above 2.8%" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1869768983441973369) 2024-12-19T15:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@veroderugy 100%. Stimulative monetary policy during an expansion with robust growth and 4% unemployment is insane" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1869870671758799289) 2024-12-19T22:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Yossarrian Defense spending will be about $0.11 on the $1 of noninterest spending by 2050s. If you want European welfare spending then you also need massive tax increases on the middle class like Europe has" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1874513004408209746) 2025-01-01T17:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "2021-23 inflation was never about supply issues. It was primarily driven by excessive levels of government spending. Two (or three) graphs that should keep you up at night if you subscribe to the supply-shock view of COVID-19 pandemic inflation. Exhibit 1: from @Francesco_Bia and Robert Barro's new paper "FISCAL INFLUENCES ON INFLATION IN OECD COUNTRIES 2020-2023". The vertical axis has https://t.co/pvXde9iTIJ Two (or three) graphs that should keep you up at night if you subscribe to the supply-shock view of COVID-19 pandemic inflation. Exhibit 1: from @Francesco_Bia and Robert Barro's new" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1876106969834303566) 2025-01-06T03:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Another new study just published in Economics Letters journal finds no evidence of greedflation. Authors estimate a production function to determine markups of output price over marginal costs for a sample of [-----] food and beverage manufactures covering the years 2013-2022.š§µ The fallacy of greedflation in one image. Just in case the data isnt enough here are few empirical studies on the topic of markups and inflation š§µ https://t.co/vpwbghopMr The fallacy of greedflation in one image. Just in case the data isnt enough here are few empirical studies on the topic of markups and inflation š§µ" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1876318308083089735) 2025-01-06T17:21Z [---] followers, 91.9K engagements "As I have noted previously the Fed has been too rash in its fast paced rate cuts. [---] bps in [--] months was far too simulative and risks reversing progress on inflation. Yields are pointing to next weeks CPI coming in hot at 2.9% (possibly 3%) for December" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1876709227462308030) 2025-01-07T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Interest rates over the past 2-3 years have been around historical (1880-2025) averages" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1878880583549616487) 2025-01-13T19:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "What explains the spike in interest rates One paper suggests a key factor is foreign officials reducing their allocation of USD denominated assets Even a small reduction in USD asset allocation has a significant short-run impact on US Treasury markets https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022199624001016 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022199624001016" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1879610961054818430) 2025-01-15T19:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Back in November I wrote a piece at NRO in which I recommended the repeal of EO [-----] in Trump's first week in office. President Trump repealed this order on day one. This simple act in immensely pro-growth. https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/11/how-trump-can-release-bidens-regulatory-brake/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/11/how-trump-can-release-bidens-regulatory-brake/" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1882079554522784131) 2025-01-22T14:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "40 economists responded to the following: Disruptions to global supply chains from new tariffs and trade wars will lead to measurably slower global growth over the next five years. 97% Agree 2% Uncertain 0% Disagree" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1885406454196179097) 2025-01-31T19:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "The President signed an EO earlier this week calling for the Secretary of the Treasury to develop a plan for the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund (SWF). We should not be expanding the governments role in capital markets š§µ" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1887569220189274378) 2025-02-06T18:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "In Austria the SWF controls 100% of publicly owned real estate 53% of the Austrian postal service and 51% of the country's largest electricity provider. This isn't wealth creating--its soft-nationalization cronyism and corporatism all rolled into one" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1887569226145407364) 2025-02-06T18:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The temptation to use the fund for strategic investmentswhether green energy or other politically favored industriesis too great. In New Zealand the government has divested large sums from politically unfavorable investments within its Superannuation Fund" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1887569227927715996) 2025-02-06T18:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "As of January there were a little over [---] million federal government workers (excluding active military and Postal Service workers)" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1895192878164648447) 2025-02-27T19:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Two depts make up over 1/2 of all federal workers (DoD & VA). Seven depts make up more than 3/4 of all workers (inc. DHS DOJ USDA HHS & Treasury)" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1895192881079689361) 2025-02-27T19:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "In a new working paper I review the model assumptions theoretical innovations state-dependent factors and dataset choices from [--] empirical studies to answer the question: How much bang for buck does government spending reap š§µ https://www.mercatus.org/research/working-papers/government-spending-multiplier-survey-empirical-literature https://www.mercatus.org/research/working-papers/government-spending-multiplier-survey-empirical-literature" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1899843470279262220) 2025-03-12T15:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "During the COVID-19 economic downturn many economists argued that the fiscal multiplier of government stimulus spending was as high as [---] or [---] due to an overreliance on a handful of studies that find misleading high multipliers based on subtle assumptions" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1899843471977980065) 2025-03-12T15:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "My latest at Reason: The ongoing trade war has put us in negative growth territory wiped $4 trillion in stock value and now consumers are pulling back. https://reason.com/2025/03/17/is-trumps-trade-war-causing-a-recession/ https://reason.com/2025/03/17/is-trumps-trade-war-causing-a-recession/" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1901727971687149943) 2025-03-17T20:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "My latest: How Reckless Spending Pushes Housing Ownership Out of Reach As the supply of government bonds increases to finance growing debt upward pressure is exerted on yields. These yields in turn have a strong influence on mortgage rates. https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/public-debt-treasury-yields-and-mortgages https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/public-debt-treasury-yields-and-mortgages" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1902452815374737504) 2025-03-19T20:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Survey of US economists asked to respond to the statement: Imposing tariffs on countries with tariff and non-tariff barriers on US good will reduce the trade deficit. Disagree 58% Uncertain 41% Agree 1%" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1904532660292039044) 2025-03-25T13:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The median age of manufacturing industry workers is [----] and quickly rising. Less than 8% of manufacturing workers are under age [--] while 2/3 are between [--] and [--]. With half a million manufacturing job openings this begs the question: Do young people want manufacturing jobs" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1908217382004236566) 2025-04-04T17:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Survey data may offer us some insights. A survey of over [-----] Generation Z high school students college students and recent graduates on career preferences and attitudes. National Society of High School Scholars 2024" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1908217383581278659) 2025-04-04T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "When asked about career areas of interest the most common responses for career expectations were engineering health sciences and business. *Almost all references to engineering in these surveys is referencing software and computer engineering" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1908217385351602633) 2025-04-04T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "When asked about their preferred employer the most common responses were in the health care and technology fields of work. Boeing Lockheed Martin and Ford Motors are listed 38th 43rd and 62nd respectively" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1908217387624608080) 2025-04-04T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Similarly a [----] Youth CARAVAN survey conducted by Engine Insights polled a sample of over [----] high school students aged [--] to [--] and found that the most common career paths were tech (44%) health care (24%) and education (17%)" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1908217389201707381) 2025-04-04T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "According to one survey of Gen Z respondents by Soter Analytics only 14% of respondents said they might consider a job in manufacturing. Destroying the global economy under the illusion of bringing back jobs that young people dont want to do is not great public policy" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1908217390606979092) 2025-04-04T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "My first edition of The Quarterly Ledger: A Review of the Nations Balance Sheet [--] months into FY2025 debt held by the public is $28.96 trillion. This is an increase of $1.45 trillion from the same time last year or roughly $9400 per federal taxpayer. https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-quarterly-ledger-a-review-of https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-quarterly-ledger-a-review-of" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1911784188941922811) 2025-04-14T14:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This WSJ article relies on Gabriel Zucman estimates of wealth concentration. This is deeply misleading for several reasons. I will cover just a few here. https://www.wsj.com/economy/1-trillion-richest-families-wealth-increase-bc13874amod=hp_lead_pos9 https://www.wsj.com/economy/1-trillion-richest-families-wealth-increase-bc13874amod=hp_lead_pos9" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1915070928184033562) 2025-04-23T15:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The Saez Zucman Piketty (SZP) method relies on incomplete & unevenly distributed capital income reported on tax returns failing to capture many asset types and distorting wealth estimates due to varying returns tax avoidance & mismatches between income and underlying wealth" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1915070929723437349) 2025-04-23T15:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Promise of Abundance and the Overlooked Obstacle of Fiscal Policy https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-promise-of-abundance-and-ther=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-promise-of-abundance-and-ther=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1915410958337421639) 2025-04-24T14:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I built a model using quarterly data (1985-2024) controlling for structural drivers like: š Debt ratio š“ Aging population š Foreign Treasury holdings š§® Term premium š Growth & inflation expectations Debt consistently showed a strong and significant upward pressure on rates" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1923011960313962780) 2025-05-15T13:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Results: 1ppt increase in the public debt ratio raises 10-year yield by [---] bps After controlling for high-leverage quarters: [----] bps With lags (i.e. delayed effects): up to [---] bps" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1923011962067128634) 2025-05-15T13:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Why Are Interest Rates So High Its Bad Fiscal Policy https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/why-are-interest-rates-so-high-itsr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/why-are-interest-rates-so-high-itsr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1923073783725703594) 2025-05-15T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "My latest at Fox News. Our dire fiscal situation isn't just raising treasury yields. Through higher yields its also the raising the cost of mortgage payments car loans student loan payments and credit card debt. #FoxNews https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/invisible-tax-government-debt-crushing-your-finances https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/invisible-tax-government-debt-crushing-your-finances" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1928445366162129021) 2025-05-30T13:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Debt Denial Has Always Been a Delusion Now Its Dangerous Previous debt deniers are now joining the fight against reckless government spending Latest by @veroderugy https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/debt-denial-has-always-been-a-delusionr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/debt-denial-has-always-been-a-delusionr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1928456945893007419) 2025-05-30T14:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Issuing an additional $2.3 trillion of debt over the next [--] years will substantially raise interest rates on government debt over that period. Agree = 90% Disagree = 3%" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1928505895144554875) 2025-05-30T17:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The OBBB is forecast to raise long run GDP by about 0.4-0.8%. Meanwhile the trade war is set to sink real GDP by a cumulative 1.4% by [----]. https://www.nber.org/papers/w33792 https://www.nber.org/papers/w33792" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1932438278847787130) 2025-06-10T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Senate has caved to House demands on the SALT cap provision of their revised version of the tax plan. In fact the Senate version is worse in many ways: No limits on workarounds Higher deduction value limit for highest earners š§µ" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1939341201188024658) 2025-06-29T15:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It seems counterintuitive that a Republican-controlled Congress would want to subsidize the property taxes of wealthy individuals in blue counties at the expense of hard-pressed workers in middle America. 2/3 of the benefits go to those making $500k most in rich blue counties" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1939341202920239157) 2025-06-29T15:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Not only does the $40k SALT cap cost an additional $325 bn to U.S. taxpayers these changes: Reduce the capital stock by 1.4% Reduce long term wages by 0.5% Reduce long term GDP by 0.7% It's a losing move all around" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1939341205860434386) 2025-06-29T15:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Republican policymakers will rightfully warn about the socialist policies of people like Mamdani. Yet they're enacting tax provisions that are going to help him pay for his socialist agenda at the expense of the Federal taxpayer in middle America" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1939341207315820938) 2025-06-29T15:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A decline in the Federal workforce of [-----] workers over [--] months in the context of [--] years of Fed workforce trends. https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/tracking-efforts-to-shrink-the-size-684 https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/tracking-efforts-to-shrink-the-size-684" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1940790566176149716) 2025-07-03T15:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@mtkonczal $5 trillion helicopter drop fueled excess savings over 80% of which had been depleted by late [----] normalizing goods consumption. Combined with supply chain improvements and Fed tightening anchoring expectations" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1942305550382813501) 2025-07-07T19:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Based on treasury revenue data from May & June all tariffs currently raise enough revenue to fund [--] days of government spending. In [----] tariffs raised enough revenue to fund [--] days of government. Global trade war and knocking 0.8% off growth to get [--] extra days of gov funding" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1944169481430864239) 2025-07-12T22:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The Quarterly Ledger: A Review of the Nations Balance Sheet Q3 [----] [--] months into FY2025 debt held by the public is $29 trillion. This is an increase of $1.4 trillion from the same time last year or roughly $8600 per federal taxpayer. š§µ https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-quarterly-ledger-a-review-of-5f9 https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-quarterly-ledger-a-review-of-5f9" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1944828822316048858) 2025-07-14T18:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "For the past decade the share of public debt held by foreign investors has been in decline with foreign investors now holding 31% of public debt" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1944828835955982591) 2025-07-14T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Other major holders include mutual funds with 15% the Federal Reserve with 14% money market funds with 10% while state and local governments and depository institutions both hold about 6% respectively" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1944828837918810393) 2025-07-14T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "In sum the U.S. balance sheet remains structurally vulnerable marked by historically high debt levels growing interest costs and a heavy reliance on short-term refinancing" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1944828839600824348) 2025-07-14T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Ill be updating The Quarterly Ledger series every quarter. Each edition will track key changes in the federal balance sheet including public debt levels budget deficits interest payments and different measures of sustainability. Follow along: https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-quarterly-ledger-a-review-of-5f9 https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-quarterly-ledger-a-review-of-5f9" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1944828840926196209) 2025-07-14T18:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The inflation of [------] was not the result of an unpredictable storm of exogenous shocks but rather the predictable consequence of excessive aggregate demand fueled by unprecedented policy stimulus. https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/how-much-did-macroeconomic-policy https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/how-much-did-macroeconomic-policy" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1947655562025390348) 2025-07-22T13:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The cost of inaction on Social Security reform. The median worker will have to forgo [--] months of earnings to cover the shortfall. To keep the program solvent indefinitely the median worker will have to forgo nearly [---] years of earnings. This is intergenerationally immoral šØYoung workers could lose $110000 in lifetime earnings just to keep Social Security solvent. We break it down in a new blog on the Debt Dispatchthe #1 Substack on fiscal policy read by 4000+ (and growing)š§µ š Full blog in the reply. https://t.co/eishEi3Iso šØYoung workers could lose $110000 in lifetime earnings just to" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1947675703433978268) 2025-07-22T15:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger argued for a U.S. SWF in the WSJ pointing to Norway Singapore UAE. But heres the catch: all of them run budget surpluses. The U.S. A 7% average deficit for [--] years. No surplus no sovereign wealth. š§µ Sovereign Wealth Funds: A Political Slush Fund in Disguise https://t.co/YONuf91h2m Sovereign Wealth Funds: A Political Slush Fund in Disguise https://t.co/YONuf91h2m" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1948395621557133531) 2025-07-24T14:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Norways surplus 10% of GDP. Singapore 3.6%. UAE Just under 3%. These surpluses fund their SWFs. The U.S. by contrast is barreling toward $116 trillion in new debt over [--] years. No extra cash = no SWF without more borrowing" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1948395622869959064) 2025-07-24T14:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "If this arbitrage opportunity were real private investors would already exploit it. Markets arent short on capital. The idea that only the government can tap into this magical spread is nave and economically incoherent" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1948395627395579959) 2025-07-24T14:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Could the U.S. fund an SWF from oil royalties like Norway Not even close. Over [--------] the feds earned $74B from oil and gas. But we ran a $11.6 trillion deficit. Thats 157x the royalties. The math doesnt work" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1948395628884586789) 2025-07-24T14:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "An SWF also distorts incentives. If the government owns shares in firms it has a regulatory conflict of interest favoring incumbents hurting competition and undermining market discipline. Thats corporatism not capitalism" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1948395630021247479) 2025-07-24T14:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Austrias SWF owns major stakes in the postal service electric utilities and real estate. This isnt investment its soft nationalization. The line between ownership and control blurs and markets suffer" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1948395631094931495) 2025-07-24T14:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Survey of [--] economists There is no evidence to suggest that the employment estimates produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are biased so as to favor any particular political party" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1954929367991148847) 2025-08-11T15:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Universal Basic Income: High Cost Low Returns and Unintended Consequences https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/universal-basic-income-high-costr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/universal-basic-income-high-costr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1955276216287547696) 2025-08-12T14:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I attempt to synthesize the the impact of debt on growth from over [---] estimates in the literature using a meta regression approach. I find that each percentage point increase in the public debt ratio reduces economic growth by [----] basis points" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1955700621832523857) 2025-08-13T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Given that the current level of public debt in the United States is around 100% of GDP and the nonlinear threshold level was crossed in [----] the central estimate can be used to calculate that economic growth is roughly [----] percentage points lower today thanks to the debt drag" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1955700623271251970) 2025-08-13T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "In other words if real GDP growth in [----] is 2% it would have been closer to 2.3% if the debt had stayed at [----] levels. Using the latest CBO long-term budget projections economic growth in [----] is estimated to be about [--] percentage point lower thanks to the debt drag" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1955700624625991738) 2025-08-13T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "New IMF WP finds similar results as I did re: debt and interest rates. Importantly the impact parameter has been growing in recent https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2025/07/11/The-Impact-of-Debt-and-Deficits-on-Long-Term-Interest-Rates-in-the-US-568444 My Latest Policy Brief: The CBO Is Underestimating the Interest Rate Impact of Public Debt For decades falling interest rates were seen as structural and inevitable. The spike in recent years suggests something else is at playsomething the CBO is downplaying. Lets dig in. š§µ" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1956011471348920415) 2025-08-14T15:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Government wasn't fiscally responsible for the first [--] months of [----]. It was restrained by the debt ceiling" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1956080991790911927) 2025-08-14T19:50Z [----] followers, 15.9K engagements "My latest at NRO. Tariffs wont fix a $2T deficit. While slowing growth and imposing a significant financial burden on households a year of new tariffs will fund just 9-12 days of government spending. https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/08/tariffs-wont-bridge-the-fiscal-gap/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/08/tariffs-wont-bridge-the-fiscal-gap/" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1956356170697891917) 2025-08-15T14:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Given what weve seen with Intel just imagine what government would do with a Sovereign Wealth Fund. This is precisely what Ive warned about. https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/sovereign-wealth-funds-a-political https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/sovereign-wealth-funds-a-political" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1959366551435370663) 2025-08-23T21:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Inflation Risk in a World of Fiscal Dominance The Fed should refrain from caving to political pressures https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/inflation-risk-in-a-world-of-fiscalr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/inflation-risk-in-a-world-of-fiscalr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1960064957598580939) 2025-08-25T19:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The End of Policymaking Revisited https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-end-of-policymaking-revisitedr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-end-of-policymaking-revisitedr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1962943385527861485) 2025-09-02T18:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Debt held by the public crossed the $30 trillion mark earlier this week after more than $200bn in new debt was added to the debt stock in the past week alone. That's $1.25 trillion in newly issued debt in [--] weeks" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1963647297532956987) 2025-09-04T16:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Another [-----] manufacturing jobs disappeared in August. That brings the total to [-----] job losses since "Liberation Day". @MichaelRStrain warned that far from reviving manufacturing employment tariffs are more likely to shrink it. Tariffs Dont Bring Back Factory Jobs Michael Strain dismantles the case for protectionism https://t.co/hlmMOsy4Rm Tariffs Dont Bring Back Factory Jobs Michael Strain dismantles the case for protectionism https://t.co/hlmMOsy4Rm" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1963949835020599420) 2025-09-05T12:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Using forecasting models we can estimate where trade jobs and prices would have been without tariffs then compare with reality. That gives us a soft test of whether tariffs are working or backfiring. I projected the U.S. goods trade deficit with a Holt-Winters model" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1965133531354628141) 2025-09-08T19:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The actual goods trade deficit was much larger than forecast. From FebJuly the cumulative deficit was $45B larger than projected. If measured from Jan the gap grows to $95B larger" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1965133533191811404) 2025-09-08T19:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Whats the Tax Rate for the Forbes [---] @adamnmichel correcting the record on how much billionaires pay in taxes. "adding annual charitable giving raises.to [--] percent and including end-of-life bequests pushes it as high as [--] percent." https://open.substack.com/pub/adamnmichel/p/whats-the-tax-rate-for-the-forbesr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://open.substack.com/pub/adamnmichel/p/whats-the-tax-rate-for-the-forbesr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1965431595944521849) 2025-09-09T15:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Do Not Forget Venice: Debt Monetary Policy and the Risks of Fiscal Dominance https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/do-not-forget-venice-debt-monetaryr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/do-not-forget-venice-debt-monetaryr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1967593438523859400) 2025-09-15T14:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A case study in how border taxes raise the daily cost of living. Just [--] years ago coffee was about $1.50lb. Now its about $4.14lb (+21% Y-o-Y) https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-tariff-lesson-for-coffee-drinkers-brazil-trade-trump-24e595c7mod=opinion_lead_pos3 https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-tariff-lesson-for-coffee-drinkers-brazil-trade-trump-24e595c7mod=opinion_lead_pos3" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1968047434397089955) 2025-09-16T20:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The last time the Federal Reserve cut rates when (1) inflation was on an upward trajectory and (2) unemployment rate was relatively low was 1966" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1968335853887107521) 2025-09-17T15:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Continuing Resolutions Arent Real Fiscal Policy Rather they showcase central planning inertia and entrench the last bad bargain https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/continuing-resolutions-arent-realr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/continuing-resolutions-arent-realr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1968396175792365581) 2025-09-17T19:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This chart shows the fiscal impact of tax policy announcements attributed to deficit reduction. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/25-inflation-50-years https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/25-inflation-50-years" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1970512369962111314) 2025-09-23T15:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This change in the fiscal policy regime was pointed out by Chancellor Nigel Lawson in his [----] Budget speech: A sound monetary policy needs to be buttressed by a prudent fiscal stance."" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1970512372147097810) 2025-09-23T15:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "After spiking by $1.34 trillion over [--] months public debt levels seem to be stabilizing at about $30.2 trillion (99% of GDP). Debt surge in JulyAug was likely catch-up from debt ceiling pause. Debt may now grow in line with the underlying deficit ($100-300bn per month)" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1970857366062338123) 2025-09-24T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@MarcGoldwein Exactly. If markets doubt future surpluses will cover todays deficits the price level rises until the real value of debt matches expected repayment. Inflation then becomes a kind of forced debt restructuring not just a side effect" [X Link](https://x.com/_JackSalmon_/status/1970861920392716597) 2025-09-24T14:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@JackSalmon Jack Salmon
Jack Salmon posts on X about debt, inflation, rates, in the the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-------] #
- [--] Week [---------] +282,383%
- [--] Month [---------] +168,086%
- [--] Months [---------] +22,553%
- [--] Year [---------] +234%
Mentions: [--] #
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +6.50%
- [--] Month [-----] +6.70%
- [--] Months [-----] +11%
- [--] Year [-----] +24%
CreatorRank: [------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance #2305 countries stocks #1218 nfl #1443 travel destinations celebrities currencies automotive brands technology brands cryptocurrencies
Social topic influence debt #1523, inflation, rates, in the, tariffs, gdp, investment, the first, fed, countries
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @dandolfa @rominaboccia @catoinstitute @housebudgetgop @reparrington @philipwallach @marcgoldwein @boydadfarmer @politicalshrmp @asymmetricinfo @isaactdozier @mtkonczal @jacksalmon @veroderugy @barneyxbt @rasterblath @fubo500 @0xjoggie @votelabonte @nickballknower
Top assets mentioned Janet (JANET) April (APRIL) Dogecoin (DOGE) RefundCoin (RFD) Spike (SPIKE)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"$430bn in economic stimulus set to go out to high income college grads and now Californians are receiving stimulus checks of up to $1050. Extinguishing a fire with gasoline šš»"
X Link 2022-10-16T20:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Inflation has pushed the debt ratio down to just under 94% of GDP. Yet rising interest rates mean that debt servicing costs hit a new high of 2.41% of GDP (annualized) in March"
X Link 2023-04-06T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Consistent with the economic literature a new study finds that US tariffs on Chinese goods are shouldered by US businesses and consumer. Specifically 93% of the cost is shouldered by US importers. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfmabstract_id=4477985 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfmabstract_id=4477985"
X Link 2023-07-11T17:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The Fed made the right decision in raising rates today. Base effects mean that June inflation data was rosier than we might see in the coming months. It is possible that inflation sticks around 3-4% for some time with the risk of entrenching expectations of high inflation"
X Link 2023-07-26T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"While the latest CPI data and forthcoming PCE data shows inflation falling core prices are a better predictor of future inflation trends. Core CPI is 4.9% (4% 3mo average) core PCE is 4.6% (4.2% 3mo average) and median CPI is 4.4%. Rent inflation continues to be 5-6%"
X Link 2023-07-26T18:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Earnings growth is within the 3.5-4% range which doesnt suggest inflation falling back to target anytime soon. Meanwhile the labor market continues to run hot and NGDP is running almost 8% above trend as of May"
X Link 2023-07-26T18:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Also worth noting the Fed targets average inflation (AIT) over time. If we use a 2-3-yr lookback of PCE (Crdia 2022) then average inflation is 5%. If we use 3-yr forward looking expectations then average inflation is 3%. Either way average inflation is well above target"
X Link 2023-07-26T18:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Half of all public debt matures within 3-years. For the past year this short-term debt has been (and continues) rolling over into treasuries with yields of 4.5--5.5%. The debt ratio is 96%. The math isn't looking great"
X Link 2023-08-11T18:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Consistent with prior studies the impact of energy shocks on US core inflation has been negligible. The focus on supply chains was always a distraction from the real issue--demand"
X Link 2023-08-14T13:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"About half (55%) of the increase in producer prices (PPI) is the result of demand not supply factors. Celasun et al. "Supply Bottlenecks: Where Why How Much and What Next" IMF Working Papers [----] no. [---] (2022) 1"
X Link 2023-08-14T20:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"While energy price fluctuations have been a key factor in driving core inflation trends in Europe this hasnt been the case in the US"
X Link 2023-08-14T20:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"New tariffs of up 123% to be levied on food can metal imports starting in January because steelworkers union complained that imports were too cheap. The result American consumers will pay up to 30% more for canned food"
X Link 2023-08-19T14:45Z [---] followers, 20.2K engagements
"Almost [--] years ago I termed the phenomena of economists forecasting future trends on past or present conditions of low interest rates the fallacy of low-trending interest rates infinitum"
X Link 2023-08-23T17:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Basing current and future fiscal policy on interest rate conditions seen during the decade following [----] always carried significant risks particularly as trends always break at some point and interest rates would return to historical norms eventually"
X Link 2023-08-23T17:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"No Low Interest Rates Did Not Justify Adding Trillions of Dollars to the National Debt Especially because the once-dismissed possibility of rising rates is now a reality"
X Link 2023-10-13T17:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The same people who spent a decade telling us "deficits don't matter" now tell us to worry about deficits. Matt Yglesias 2016: we should borrow more Matt Yglesias 2020: deficit is abstract political football. Matt Yglesias 2023: deficit matters now"
X Link 2023-10-17T14:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MarcGoldwein at current and prospective interest rate levels nominal and real Federal debt service is likely to be low not high by historical standards over the next decade. - Furman and Summers 2020"
X Link 2023-10-17T14:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Powell 2023: "We dont comment on fiscal policy" Powell 2020: "This is the time to use the great fiscal power of the United States to do what we can to support the economy""
X Link 2023-10-25T17:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The recent increase in interest payments on public debt is just the beginning of a long spike in high servicing costs that could last many years. Spikes in interest payments lag spikes in interest rates by roughly the length of average maturity give or take. š§µ"
X Link 2023-11-30T18:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"For example the double digit interest rates of 1980-85 were followed by spikes in interest payments/GDP from about [----] to [----] (see below). Average debt maturity in 80-85 was 4-5 years (compared to [--] years today)"
X Link 2023-11-30T18:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Some might argue that interest rates of 11-12% in the 80's are notably higher than todays. But this misses the fact that the stock of debt/GDP today is 4-times larger. Servicing 25% of GDP debt with 12% rates is cheaper than servicing 100% at 4-5%"
X Link 2023-11-30T18:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@mtkonczal @MarcGoldwein"
X Link 2023-12-24T21:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"January CPI inflation forecasts: CPI = 2.9% (Cleveland Fed Deutsche Bank RBC SocGen) = 3.0% (TDS NBF Wells Fargo) Core = 3.8% (Cleveland Fed RBC TDS NBF SocGen) = 3.7% (Deutsche Bank Wells Fargo)"
X Link 2024-02-12T20:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"For every $1 in tax revenues the government raised in February it spent $2.09. Net interest payments exceeded defense spending yet again"
X Link 2024-03-12T18:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"71% of surveyed economists expect [--] or fewer Fed rate cuts this year (2024). 37% expect [--] or [--] rate cuts. 29% expect [--] or more. Most expect the first rate cut in July (29%) or September (29%)"
X Link 2024-03-20T14:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The data and findings from these Piketty Saez and Zucman (PSZ) studies have been found to be deeply flawed and misleading. š§µ This semester I've been teaching "Economic Inequality and Growth" at @UCBerkeley. This is a thread with some of my favorite graphs. First the headline everyone's-seen-it graph: falling then rising income inequality in Anglophone countries. https://t.co/Ffq6oiIeos This semester I've been teaching "Economic Inequality and Growth" at @UCBerkeley. This is a thread with some of my favorite graphs. First the headline everyone's-seen-it graph: falling then rising income"
X Link 2024-04-18T14:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Q: Tripling tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers. Weighted Response: 87% Agree 2% Disagree"
X Link 2024-05-02T17:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Q: The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses. Weighted Response: 79% Disagree 6% Agree"
X Link 2024-05-02T17:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"In April the treasury rolled over $2.3 trillion in debt at an average interest rate of 3.23%. This is the same average interest rate paid in late [----] (blue line). The difference is our debt is double what it was then so our interest/GDP is double too (red line)"
X Link 2024-05-07T18:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This week Sens Vance Hawley and Rubio asked Biden to block Nippon Steel take-over. 98% of economist don't agree the acquisition will hurt the US steel industry. 95% agree it will cause no measurable damage to the US economy"
X Link 2024-05-10T19:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fiscal support initially (in 2020) contributed positively to aggregate productivity but as the economy recovered it quickly became distortive (in 2021). ECB study on pandemic support and productivity in Europe: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op341dfff9548ed.en.pdf https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op341dfff9548ed.en.pdf"
X Link 2024-05-13T17:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"My latest at NRO on tackling the fiscal roots of inflation: https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/05/beyond-the-fed-tackling-the-fiscal-roots-of-inflation/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/05/beyond-the-fed-tackling-the-fiscal-roots-of-inflation/"
X Link 2024-05-16T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Weighted response from panel of US economists 1) tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher prices of EVs in the US. 2) tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers. 1) 88% agree (4% disagree) 2) 70% agree (9% disagree)"
X Link 2024-06-04T21:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Poterba and Summers (1985) Our results suggest that dividend taxes reduce corporate investment and exacerbate distortions in the intersectoral and intertemporal allocation of capital"
X Link 2024-06-11T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Joint Economic Committee (1997) a capital gains tax reduction would lower the cost of capital boost investment and stimulate economic growth"
X Link 2024-06-11T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Alan Greenspan noted in [----] that capital gains taxes major impact is to impede entrepreneurial activity and capital formation. While all taxes impede economic growth to one extent or another the capital gains tax is at the far end of the scale.""
X Link 2024-06-11T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Becker et al. (2013) Payout taxes have a large impact on the dynamics of corporate investment and growth. Investment is locked in in profitable firms when payout is heavily taxed. Thus apart from any aggregate effects payout taxes change the allocation of capital"
X Link 2024-06-11T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Gentry (2016) higher capital gains tax rates are associated with a reduction in state-level disbursements from venture capital fundsin states with higher capital gains tax rates fewer entrepreneurs are starting businesses that seek venture capital funding"
X Link 2024-06-11T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Edwards and Todtenhaupt (2018) "find evidence consistent with this capital gains tax reduction increasing the amount of investment in start-up firms per funding round by about 12%. The effect is stronger in start-up firms that are likely to have greater administrative capacity.""
X Link 2024-06-11T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"For the 5th month in a row since Javier Milei became President Argentina has posted a budget surplus"
X Link 2024-06-18T17:54Z [---] followers, 1.3M engagements
"*Slight correction Javier Milei oversees 5th monthly budget (not just primary) surplus For the 5th month in a row since Javier Milei became President Argentina has posted a budget surplus. https://t.co/w4Mimu97JM For the 5th month in a row since Javier Milei became President Argentina has posted a budget surplus. https://t.co/w4Mimu97JM"
X Link 2024-06-18T17:57Z [---] followers, 23.3K engagements
"@31_skinny Reduced public spending eliminated subsidies devaluation reduced provincial aid rolled back the bloated payrolls of public servants. This is all before he passed [---] articles of spending reform last week. It's a great start"
X Link 2024-06-20T17:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@su_tomasz The report forecasts output will contract this year but also that in H2 "real wages begin to recover and investment picks up in response to reforms". Adding "indicators point to a possible stabilization of economic activity starting in April" For context GDP contracted in 2023"
X Link 2024-06-20T18:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Brian has a plan to stabilize and reduce the public debt ratio to 73% of GDP in 30-years. Failure to act will result in debt soaring to 236% or 300% of GDP by [----] (depending on interest rates). NEW from me: When I criticize lawmakers for refusing to address soaring long-term debt many respond "OK so where's your plan" Well here is my 30-year plan to stabilize the federal debt.š Specifically its an update to my [----] blueprint. š§µ https://t.co/uOtjOdyFPp NEW from me: When I criticize lawmakers for refusing to address soaring long-term debt many respond "OK so where's your plan" Well here is"
X Link 2024-06-27T19:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"For the 6th month in a row since Javier Milei became President Argentina has posted a budget surplus. AFUERA"
X Link 2024-07-16T18:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The average interest rate paid on interest bearing public debt in July reached 3.33% or 3.25% of GDP annualized. In July the Treasury rolled over almost $2.2 trillion in debt"
X Link 2024-08-08T18:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"In [----] Larry Summers warned that the ARP would cause inflationary pressures to mount. Jason Furman noted that ARP was too big for the moment Most economist ignored them. Many continue to deny the underlying drivers of 2021-23 inflation. š§µ"
X Link 2024-08-14T19:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Forbes et al. "Monetary Policy Responses to the Post-Pandemic Inflation." CEPR Discussion Paper [----]. 58% of the 2020-23 U.S. inflation spike was driven by demand and monetary shocks vs 42% by supply shock"
X Link 2024-08-14T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Firat Melih and Otso Hao. "Demand vs. Supply Decomposition of Inflation: Cross-Country Evidence with Applications." IMF Working Papers [----] no. [---] (2023) [--]. Post-pandemic inflation surge in the U.S. was about 50/50 supply/demand driven"
X Link 2024-08-14T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"For the figure below the black bars illustrate the evolution of inflation originating from unfunded transfer shocks. The gray and white bars highlight the role of other policy shocks and nonpolicy shocks"
X Link 2024-08-14T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"ARPA fiscal stimulus accounts for approximately half (3.5ppt) of the increase in inflation with cost-push shocks contributing a similar amount (cost-push being transitory factor). Bianchi and Melosi. "Inflation as a Fiscal Limit." Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 2022"
X Link 2024-08-14T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The impact of fiscal stimulus was highest in the US. It was responsible for 2.5ppt (half) of excess inflation in Q4 [----]. De Soyres et al. "Fiscal policy and excess inflation during Covid-19: a cross-country view." Federal Reserve 2022-07-15 (2022)"
X Link 2024-08-14T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"De Soyres et al. updated their analysis in [----] (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review) and found that fiscal stimulus was responsible for 2.6ppt of excess inflation (up from 2.5ppt) when including [----] data"
X Link 2024-08-14T19:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"More than half (55%) of the increase in producer prices (PPI) is the result of demand not supply factors. Celasun et al. "Supply Bottlenecks: Where Why How Much and What Next" IMF Working Papers [----] no. [---] (2022) 1"
X Link 2024-08-14T19:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"While energy price fluctuations have been a key factor in driving core inflation trends in Europe this hasnt been the case in the US. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-energy-shocks-core-inflation-us-and-euro-area https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-energy-shocks-core-inflation-us-and-euro-area"
X Link 2024-08-14T19:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"For a panel of [--] economies (2000-22) every [--] ppt increase in the debt ratio reduces real GDP by 0.015% after [--] years and persistently increases the inflation rate. The negative growth effect is far stronger for high debt (41% GDP) countries. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261560624001542 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261560624001542"
X Link 2024-08-19T17:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Latest in my series of pieces on tax expenditures for the chopping block. State and Local Tax Deduction (SALT): https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/tax-expenditures-for-the-chopping-b5b https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/tax-expenditures-for-the-chopping-b5b"
X Link 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Under current law Treasury estimates it costs $1.24 trillion over a decade. If the $10k cap is allowed to expire it will cost around $2 trillion in forgone revenues over a decade (2026-35)"
X Link 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"SALT only benefits those at the very top of the income scale. In [----] less than [--] million tax returns deducted state and local income taxesjust 7% of returns"
X Link 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"99% of the value of tax benefits from the SALT deduction goes to earners making more than $100000 a year. 68% of the benefits go to an even smaller group of less than [---] million earners making more than $500000 a year"
X Link 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Those high-income taxpayers who benefit from the SALT deduction tend to be concentrated in affluent states such as California New York New Jersey Connecticut and Illinois. It also contributes to economic segregation by subsidizing wealthy communities at the expense of poorer"
X Link 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"It also allows state governments to hike taxes on those that are deductible shifting the burden to federal taxpayers. This results in state and local tax burdens being about 13%-14% higher"
X Link 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"SALT deduction also distorts market signals and violates the principles of equal tax treatment. Preferential tax treatment of government service provision crowds out the private sector"
X Link 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The most fiscally prudent action would be the full repeal of the SALT deduction. Policymakers could still demonstrate fiscal rectitude without full repeal by extending the existing $10000 SALT deduction cap beyond 2025"
X Link 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Policymakers could also fix the SALT work-arounds enacted in [--] states that allow some businesses to skirt the SALT cap entirely. Because of these work-arounds the SALT cap has only raised about 80%-85% of what it was intended to raise"
X Link 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"While full repeal of the SALT deduction would be the most fiscally responsible course of action extending the existing $10000 cap would send a strong signal that policymakers are committed to addressing the nation's fiscal challenges"
X Link 2024-08-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"2022 weighted survey of [--] economists: A significant factor behind todays higher US inflation is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins. 79% Disagree 10% Agree"
X Link 2024-08-29T14:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Second survey statement: Antitrust interventions could successfully reduce US inflation over the next [--] months. 84% Disagree 4% Agree"
X Link 2024-08-29T14:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Third survey statement: Price controls as deployed in the 1970s could successfully reduce US inflation over the next [--] months. 65% Disagree 24% Agree"
X Link 2024-08-29T14:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"New NBER working paper: Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forcesIn comparison the inflationary impact of adverse supply shocks was less pronounced https://www.nber.org/papers/w32859 In [----] Larry Summers warned that the ARP would cause inflationary pressures to mount. Jason Furman noted that ARP was too big for the moment Most economist ignored them. Many continue to deny the underlying drivers of 2021-23 inflation. š§µ https://www.nber.org/papers/w32859 In [----] Larry Summers warned that the ARP would cause inflationary pressures to mount. Jason Furman"
X Link 2024-08-29T23:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The average interest rate paid on interest bearing public debt in July reached 3.35% or 3.29% of GDP annualized"
X Link 2024-09-06T20:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
""She calls it the billionaire minimum tax but it would be better to call it the capital markets death tax. It would crush the U.S. stock market grind initial-public offerings to a halt and hit you in the https://www.wsj.com/opinion/you-would-pay-harriss-wealth-tax-billionaire-minimum-investors-2d93e972mod=opinion_lead_pos5 https://www.wsj.com/opinion/you-would-pay-harriss-wealth-tax-billionaire-minimum-investors-2d93e972mod=opinion_lead_pos5"
X Link 2024-09-10T15:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This tracks with China's billion+ dollar start-ups over the past decade: One of the most striking charts this year: Chinas startup ecosystem has almost completely collapsed in the last [--] years. https://t.co/Ynsf01tWbd One of the most striking charts this year: Chinas startup ecosystem has almost completely collapsed in the last [--] years. https://t.co/Ynsf01tWbd"
X Link 2024-09-12T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Looking at new billion+ dollar start-ups created since [----] per [--] million people Bay Area entrepreneurs are starting 32X as many Unicorn businesses as Shanghai entrepreneurs per capita"
X Link 2024-09-12T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"44 economists were asked [--] questions on economic policy ideas. Q1 - Giving the President more influence over monetary policy would lead to substantially worse monetary policy decisions. Agree = 93% Disagree = 5%"
X Link 2024-09-12T15:17Z [---] followers, 92.9K engagements
"Q2 - Imposing tariffs results in a substantial portion of the tariffs being borne by consumers of the country that enacts the tariffs through price increases. Agree = 96% Disagree = 3%"
X Link 2024-09-12T15:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"In the first [--] months of FY24 for every $1 in taxes collected [--] cents was spent on servicing public debt. If you combined all federal transport spending federal education spending & all veterans benefits & services it still wouldn't come close to debt interest spending"
X Link 2024-09-12T15:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Another study on fiscal inflation: "evidence largely corresponds to the period when the pandemic fiscal packages were adopted and suggests that these transfers had long-lasting effects on inflation and contribute to explaining the persistence of core services inflation.""
X Link 2024-09-17T13:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The fed should be careful about cutting FFR too much too fast. A 25-bps cut would be more prudent than 50-bps. Core CPI is still 3.3% and economists dont expect core PCE to fall below 2% for at least a year or more. We shouldnt risk reigniting inflation"
X Link 2024-09-18T17:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Earlier this week I testified before the Senate Budget Committee arguing that more spending deficits and debt are not the solution to housing affordability. More deficit financed demand-inducing spending would only make matters worse. https://www.budget.senate.gov/hearings/watchhearingid=FB50A5AC-3590-4515-B0AE-357A2F8013D2 https://www.budget.senate.gov/hearings/watchhearingid=FB50A5AC-3590-4515-B0AE-357A2F8013D2"
X Link 2024-09-27T18:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"CBO monthly budget data just dropped. Debt servicing cost/GDP for FY24 is 3.27%. Budget deficit/GDP for FY24 is 6.3%. The last time debt servicing costs were 3% was [----] (3.06%) The last time deficit/GDP was this large with 4% unemployment was NEVER"
X Link 2024-10-08T18:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The fallacy of greedflation in one image. Just in case the data isnt enough here are few empirical studies on the topic of markups and inflation š§µ"
X Link 2024-10-11T18:53Z [---] followers, 251.7K engagements
"Weighing markups by industry costs a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco study found that aggregate markups stayed flat during the period 2020-23. Conclusion rising markups have not been a main driver of the recent surge in inflation https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2024-12.pdf https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2024-12.pdf"
X Link 2024-10-11T18:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"A Reserve Bank of Australia study using firm-level data found just 3.55% of cumulative inflation is attributable to markups. The authors conclude: markups mechanism does not seem to be a plausible source of inflation amplification https://ideas.repec.org/p/rba/rbaacp/acp2023-05.html https://ideas.repec.org/p/rba/rbaacp/acp2023-05.html"
X Link 2024-10-11T18:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas study found that an increase in markups likely provides a signal that price setters expect persistent increases in future costs of production. Higher markups therefore reflect higher (anticipated) input costs for firms https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/9329/EconomicReviewV108N1GloverMustredelRiovonEndeBecker.pdf https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/9329/EconomicReviewV108N1GloverMustredelRiovonEndeBecker.pdf"
X Link 2024-10-11T18:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@naked_delta Youre correct that most of the inflation we saw was fiscal (over spending). I have a thread with over a dozen studies confirming as much. In [----] Larry Summers warned that the ARP would cause inflationary pressures to mount. Jason Furman noted that ARP was too big for the moment Most economist ignored them. Many continue to deny the underlying drivers of 2021-23 inflation. š§µ In [----] Larry Summers warned that the ARP would cause inflationary pressures to mount. Jason Furman noted that ARP was too big for the moment Most economist ignored them. Many continue to deny the underlying"
X Link 2024-10-12T22:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@benfoxxxxx PPI is just another measure of inflation. It measures the weighted-average change in the prices domestic producers receivefor their output. The Bloomberg chart conflates rising input costs (supply-side inflation) with rising margins (profit-driven inflation)"
X Link 2024-10-16T18:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Thomas Laubach updated his [----] analysis in [----] with a new study in the Journal of European Economic Association. He found estimated ranging between [--] and [---] basis points"
X Link 2024-10-16T19:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"In an IMF Working Paper Kumar and Baldacci (2010) estimate that the impact of a [--] ppt increase in the debt ratio was a large [----] basis point increase in the long-term interest rate"
X Link 2024-10-16T19:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@joshrauh Pre-2021 many economists were convinced that interest rates would never notably increase again due to other "structural factors". I wonder what additional factors they refer to now. It can't be foreign demand for U.S. securities:"
X Link 2024-10-16T20:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"My 6th piece in a series on tax expenditures. We're set to spend $151bn on college tax credits in the coming decade. These expenditures are badly targeted and have no impact on enrollment decisions. Today on @Discourse_Mag @JackSalmon explains that college tax credits dont work as intendedthey dont incentivize more people to enroll in college and most of the benefit doesnt reach the students who need it most. https://t.co/pW7sJcFoJj Today on @Discourse_Mag @JackSalmon explains that college tax credits dont work as intendedthey dont incentivize more people to enroll in college and most of"
X Link 2024-10-17T14:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I dug into how CBO determines changes in "labor force growth". It is based entirely on the "Demographics" literature. Demographics is also a key factor in "private domestic and foreign savings" @JackSalmon Oof. They cite "slower growth of the labor force more private foreign and domestic savings available for investment and slower growth of TFP". https://t.co/y9gAokL9be @JackSalmon Oof. They cite "slower growth of the labor force more private foreign and domestic savings available for investment and slower growth of TFP". https://t.co/y9gAokL9be"
X Link 2024-10-17T15:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"They seem to put a lot of weight on 1980-2015 trends largely ignoring the literature on future expectations in demographic changes and subsequent changes in savings labor force participation etc. They even acknowledge that this is challenging and contributes to uncertainty"
X Link 2024-10-17T15:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"However forecasts of demographic effects on interest rates through [----] range from depressing rates by [--] bps (Carvalho et al. 2016) to increasing rates by [--] bps (Rachel & Smith 2015). There is a lot of uncertainty on the impact of demographics on interest rates going forward"
X Link 2024-10-17T15:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Goodhart and Pradhan (2017) argue that future demographic changes could raise interest rates as boomers spend down their savings. Rachel & Smith (2015) note that demographic effect on rates will gradually reverse"
X Link 2024-10-17T15:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"High interest rates don't just matter for newly issued debt and current budget deficits. They also matter for rolling over existing debt. In September alone the Treasury rolled over $2.56 trillion in securities. The average interest rate on these rollovers was 3.3%"
X Link 2024-10-18T15:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects U.S. public debt will reach 166% of GDP by [----]. Their forecast assumes modest rises in interest rates. But are they underestimating how much rising debt will impact future borrowing costs https://libertylensecon.substack.com/p/long-term-interest-rate-projections https://libertylensecon.substack.com/p/long-term-interest-rate-projections"
X Link 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"CBOs model assumes each 1% rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio adds just [--] basis points (bps) to interest rates. Yet recent studies suggest the impact could be closer to [--] bps or moredouble their estimate"
X Link 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Why does this matter If the debt-to-GDP ratio impacts rates more than CBO assumes future borrowing costs could soar. Instead of 4.4% by [----] 10-year treasury rates could hit 5.8%magnifying the fiscal burden on the U.S. government"
X Link 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"One reason for concern is the U.S.'s short-term debt maturity structure. More than half of federal debt must be refinanced within [--] years making us vulnerable to sudden interest rate hikes"
X Link 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"With $2.56 trillion in debt maturing in September [----] alone any rate hikes will quickly increase costs driving up the cost of debt servicing and squeezing the federal budget"
X Link 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Demographic changes and total factor productivity (TFP) growth are historically unpredictable. Some experts argue that an aging population might actually drive rates up as (Boomer Gen) retirees spend down savings"
X Link 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"CBOs optimism could mean were not fully prepared for the fiscal risks of rising interest rates. Given the U.S.'s growing debt we need more cautious assumptions to avoid a budget crisis in the future"
X Link 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Even small adjustments to CBO's debt impact assumptionsraising from [--] bps to [--] bpswould show how much more vulnerable we are to rising interest costs. We must rethink these assumptions for a more realistic outlook on our fiscal future. #Economy #DebtCrisis #FiscalPolicy"
X Link 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Thanks for reading Follow me for more insights on public debt interest rates and fiscal policy. Read the full article here: https://libertylensecon.substack.com/p/long-term-interest-rate-projections https://libertylensecon.substack.com/p/long-term-interest-rate-projections"
X Link 2024-10-23T14:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"New World Bank study on fiscal multipliers and debt: Countries with debt/GDP 30% have impact multipliers of [---] and long term [---]. Countries with debt/GDP 80% have impact multiplier of [--] and long term [---]. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/a5a06649-8881-43bb-903b-e1302a7289f1 Yet another study finds that fiscal multiplier are notably lower in high-debt countries. In this case spending multipliers in high-debt countries are about half of those in low-debt countries. https://t.co/Wdx2PNMuKd https://t.co/UBKHJ2YPmw"
X Link 2024-10-30T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Spending rescaled by outstanding debt and its maturity reveals a very clear relation between spending and inflation (2020-23) https://t.co/GzHs5JsLeH https://t.co/GzHs5JsLeH"
X Link 2024-11-18T13:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Peter Orszag says that as much as 79% of the rise inflation in recent years was due to supply chain variables. The truth is while supply chain variables were notable in [----] they played a very minor role in inflation trends from [----] onwards"
X Link 2024-11-25T16:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Orszag claims that countries with greater levels of fiscal stimulus did not experience higher levels of inflation (chart on left). However rescaled by outstanding debt and its maturity reveals a very clear relation between spending and inflation (chart on right)"
X Link 2024-11-25T16:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
""It takes on average [---] years to litigate a NEPA challenge which is on top of the four or so years to get a federal permit." NEPA imposed $229 bn in reg costs on infrastructure projects in [----]. NEPA reform should be a priority for @elonmusk @DOGE https://www.wsj.com/opinion/supreme-court-permitting-case-nepa-seven-county-infrastructure-coalition-fcc26ca5mod=opinion_lead_pos2 https://www.wsj.com/opinion/supreme-court-permitting-case-nepa-seven-county-infrastructure-coalition-fcc26ca5mod=opinion_lead_pos2"
X Link 2024-12-10T15:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Sending out "inflation refund" checks = adding water to a sinking ship. Not to mention NY needs an additional $74.7 billion to cover its bills with almost $86 billion in unfunded retiree health care benefits. https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/new-york-inflation-refund-checks/ https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/new-york-inflation-refund-checks/"
X Link 2024-12-10T17:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Janet Yellen now says: I am concerned about fiscal sustainability and I am sorry that we havent made more progress I believe that the deficit needs to be brought down especially now that were in an environment of higher interest rates. However"
X Link 2024-12-12T16:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Just [--] years ago Janet Yellen said: If we ended up with a slightly higher interest rate environment it would actually be a plus for societys point of view and the Feds point of view and with interest rates at historic lows the smartest thing we can do is act big"
X Link 2024-12-12T16:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@dandolfa @RominaBoccia @CatoInstitute @housebudgetGOP @RepArrington @PhilipWallach Incorrect. It ism in fact both. Your chart actually proves the fallacy youve been pushing for years. Those periods of rg coincided with massive increases in the debt burden. Not to mention these theories are entirely ignorant of the fact that we have budget deficits if 6%"
X Link 2024-12-17T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@dandolfa @RominaBoccia @CatoInstitute @housebudgetGOP @RepArrington @PhilipWallach In good times and 15% in bad times. It was these very fallacies rooted in the idea of low interest rates infinitun that have fueled irresponsible fiscal policy over the years"
X Link 2024-12-17T01:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@dandolfa @RominaBoccia @CatoInstitute @housebudgetGOP @RepArrington @PhilipWallach While rg creates theoretical space for fiscal expansion this space is finite. Over time increasing debt raises r narrowing or reversing the rg gap. Excessive government borrowing can crowd out private investment eventually leading to higher interest rates and slower growth"
X Link 2024-12-17T19:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@dandolfa @RominaBoccia @CatoInstitute @housebudgetGOP @RepArrington @PhilipWallach High debt levels can also create vulnerability to crises. If markets lose confidence default risk premiums can spiral pushing rates higher and compounding the debt problem. Very few believed high interest rates or inflation were a real risk in early [----] (exl L Summers)"
X Link 2024-12-17T19:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@dandolfa @RominaBoccia @CatoInstitute @housebudgetGOP @RepArrington @PhilipWallach The U.S. is running structurally high deficits (6% of GDP in normal times 15% in crises) far exceeding the steady 1% primary deficit that rg theoretically allows without raising debt-to-GDP ratios. Not to mention quickly approaching trust fund shortfalls"
X Link 2024-12-17T19:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@dandolfa @RominaBoccia @CatoInstitute @housebudgetGOP @RepArrington @PhilipWallach Relying on rg over such long horizons is risky as market dynamics can shift unexpectedlybond vigilantes might not wait. High-debt countries are more likely to experience a shift from a negative to a positive rg regime"
X Link 2024-12-17T19:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Its easy to see why the Fed is cautioning about further rate cuts. The market is expecting December CPI to come in above 2.8%"
X Link 2024-12-19T15:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@veroderugy 100%. Stimulative monetary policy during an expansion with robust growth and 4% unemployment is insane"
X Link 2024-12-19T22:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Yossarrian Defense spending will be about $0.11 on the $1 of noninterest spending by 2050s. If you want European welfare spending then you also need massive tax increases on the middle class like Europe has"
X Link 2025-01-01T17:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"2021-23 inflation was never about supply issues. It was primarily driven by excessive levels of government spending. Two (or three) graphs that should keep you up at night if you subscribe to the supply-shock view of COVID-19 pandemic inflation. Exhibit 1: from @Francesco_Bia and Robert Barro's new paper "FISCAL INFLUENCES ON INFLATION IN OECD COUNTRIES 2020-2023". The vertical axis has https://t.co/pvXde9iTIJ Two (or three) graphs that should keep you up at night if you subscribe to the supply-shock view of COVID-19 pandemic inflation. Exhibit 1: from @Francesco_Bia and Robert Barro's new"
X Link 2025-01-06T03:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Another new study just published in Economics Letters journal finds no evidence of greedflation. Authors estimate a production function to determine markups of output price over marginal costs for a sample of [-----] food and beverage manufactures covering the years 2013-2022.š§µ The fallacy of greedflation in one image. Just in case the data isnt enough here are few empirical studies on the topic of markups and inflation š§µ https://t.co/vpwbghopMr The fallacy of greedflation in one image. Just in case the data isnt enough here are few empirical studies on the topic of markups and inflation š§µ"
X Link 2025-01-06T17:21Z [---] followers, 91.9K engagements
"As I have noted previously the Fed has been too rash in its fast paced rate cuts. [---] bps in [--] months was far too simulative and risks reversing progress on inflation. Yields are pointing to next weeks CPI coming in hot at 2.9% (possibly 3%) for December"
X Link 2025-01-07T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Interest rates over the past 2-3 years have been around historical (1880-2025) averages"
X Link 2025-01-13T19:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"What explains the spike in interest rates One paper suggests a key factor is foreign officials reducing their allocation of USD denominated assets Even a small reduction in USD asset allocation has a significant short-run impact on US Treasury markets https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022199624001016 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022199624001016"
X Link 2025-01-15T19:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Back in November I wrote a piece at NRO in which I recommended the repeal of EO [-----] in Trump's first week in office. President Trump repealed this order on day one. This simple act in immensely pro-growth. https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/11/how-trump-can-release-bidens-regulatory-brake/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/11/how-trump-can-release-bidens-regulatory-brake/"
X Link 2025-01-22T14:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"40 economists responded to the following: Disruptions to global supply chains from new tariffs and trade wars will lead to measurably slower global growth over the next five years. 97% Agree 2% Uncertain 0% Disagree"
X Link 2025-01-31T19:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The President signed an EO earlier this week calling for the Secretary of the Treasury to develop a plan for the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund (SWF). We should not be expanding the governments role in capital markets š§µ"
X Link 2025-02-06T18:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"In Austria the SWF controls 100% of publicly owned real estate 53% of the Austrian postal service and 51% of the country's largest electricity provider. This isn't wealth creating--its soft-nationalization cronyism and corporatism all rolled into one"
X Link 2025-02-06T18:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The temptation to use the fund for strategic investmentswhether green energy or other politically favored industriesis too great. In New Zealand the government has divested large sums from politically unfavorable investments within its Superannuation Fund"
X Link 2025-02-06T18:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"As of January there were a little over [---] million federal government workers (excluding active military and Postal Service workers)"
X Link 2025-02-27T19:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Two depts make up over 1/2 of all federal workers (DoD & VA). Seven depts make up more than 3/4 of all workers (inc. DHS DOJ USDA HHS & Treasury)"
X Link 2025-02-27T19:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"In a new working paper I review the model assumptions theoretical innovations state-dependent factors and dataset choices from [--] empirical studies to answer the question: How much bang for buck does government spending reap š§µ https://www.mercatus.org/research/working-papers/government-spending-multiplier-survey-empirical-literature https://www.mercatus.org/research/working-papers/government-spending-multiplier-survey-empirical-literature"
X Link 2025-03-12T15:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"During the COVID-19 economic downturn many economists argued that the fiscal multiplier of government stimulus spending was as high as [---] or [---] due to an overreliance on a handful of studies that find misleading high multipliers based on subtle assumptions"
X Link 2025-03-12T15:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"My latest at Reason: The ongoing trade war has put us in negative growth territory wiped $4 trillion in stock value and now consumers are pulling back. https://reason.com/2025/03/17/is-trumps-trade-war-causing-a-recession/ https://reason.com/2025/03/17/is-trumps-trade-war-causing-a-recession/"
X Link 2025-03-17T20:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"My latest: How Reckless Spending Pushes Housing Ownership Out of Reach As the supply of government bonds increases to finance growing debt upward pressure is exerted on yields. These yields in turn have a strong influence on mortgage rates. https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/public-debt-treasury-yields-and-mortgages https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/public-debt-treasury-yields-and-mortgages"
X Link 2025-03-19T20:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Survey of US economists asked to respond to the statement: Imposing tariffs on countries with tariff and non-tariff barriers on US good will reduce the trade deficit. Disagree 58% Uncertain 41% Agree 1%"
X Link 2025-03-25T13:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The median age of manufacturing industry workers is [----] and quickly rising. Less than 8% of manufacturing workers are under age [--] while 2/3 are between [--] and [--]. With half a million manufacturing job openings this begs the question: Do young people want manufacturing jobs"
X Link 2025-04-04T17:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Survey data may offer us some insights. A survey of over [-----] Generation Z high school students college students and recent graduates on career preferences and attitudes. National Society of High School Scholars 2024"
X Link 2025-04-04T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"When asked about career areas of interest the most common responses for career expectations were engineering health sciences and business. *Almost all references to engineering in these surveys is referencing software and computer engineering"
X Link 2025-04-04T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"When asked about their preferred employer the most common responses were in the health care and technology fields of work. Boeing Lockheed Martin and Ford Motors are listed 38th 43rd and 62nd respectively"
X Link 2025-04-04T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Similarly a [----] Youth CARAVAN survey conducted by Engine Insights polled a sample of over [----] high school students aged [--] to [--] and found that the most common career paths were tech (44%) health care (24%) and education (17%)"
X Link 2025-04-04T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"According to one survey of Gen Z respondents by Soter Analytics only 14% of respondents said they might consider a job in manufacturing. Destroying the global economy under the illusion of bringing back jobs that young people dont want to do is not great public policy"
X Link 2025-04-04T17:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"My first edition of The Quarterly Ledger: A Review of the Nations Balance Sheet [--] months into FY2025 debt held by the public is $28.96 trillion. This is an increase of $1.45 trillion from the same time last year or roughly $9400 per federal taxpayer. https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-quarterly-ledger-a-review-of https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-quarterly-ledger-a-review-of"
X Link 2025-04-14T14:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This WSJ article relies on Gabriel Zucman estimates of wealth concentration. This is deeply misleading for several reasons. I will cover just a few here. https://www.wsj.com/economy/1-trillion-richest-families-wealth-increase-bc13874amod=hp_lead_pos9 https://www.wsj.com/economy/1-trillion-richest-families-wealth-increase-bc13874amod=hp_lead_pos9"
X Link 2025-04-23T15:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Saez Zucman Piketty (SZP) method relies on incomplete & unevenly distributed capital income reported on tax returns failing to capture many asset types and distorting wealth estimates due to varying returns tax avoidance & mismatches between income and underlying wealth"
X Link 2025-04-23T15:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Promise of Abundance and the Overlooked Obstacle of Fiscal Policy https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-promise-of-abundance-and-ther=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-promise-of-abundance-and-ther=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false"
X Link 2025-04-24T14:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I built a model using quarterly data (1985-2024) controlling for structural drivers like: š Debt ratio š“ Aging population š Foreign Treasury holdings š§® Term premium š Growth & inflation expectations Debt consistently showed a strong and significant upward pressure on rates"
X Link 2025-05-15T13:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Results: 1ppt increase in the public debt ratio raises 10-year yield by [---] bps After controlling for high-leverage quarters: [----] bps With lags (i.e. delayed effects): up to [---] bps"
X Link 2025-05-15T13:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Why Are Interest Rates So High Its Bad Fiscal Policy https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/why-are-interest-rates-so-high-itsr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/why-are-interest-rates-so-high-itsr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false"
X Link 2025-05-15T17:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My latest at Fox News. Our dire fiscal situation isn't just raising treasury yields. Through higher yields its also the raising the cost of mortgage payments car loans student loan payments and credit card debt. #FoxNews https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/invisible-tax-government-debt-crushing-your-finances https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/invisible-tax-government-debt-crushing-your-finances"
X Link 2025-05-30T13:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Debt Denial Has Always Been a Delusion Now Its Dangerous Previous debt deniers are now joining the fight against reckless government spending Latest by @veroderugy https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/debt-denial-has-always-been-a-delusionr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/debt-denial-has-always-been-a-delusionr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false"
X Link 2025-05-30T14:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Issuing an additional $2.3 trillion of debt over the next [--] years will substantially raise interest rates on government debt over that period. Agree = 90% Disagree = 3%"
X Link 2025-05-30T17:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The OBBB is forecast to raise long run GDP by about 0.4-0.8%. Meanwhile the trade war is set to sink real GDP by a cumulative 1.4% by [----]. https://www.nber.org/papers/w33792 https://www.nber.org/papers/w33792"
X Link 2025-06-10T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Senate has caved to House demands on the SALT cap provision of their revised version of the tax plan. In fact the Senate version is worse in many ways: No limits on workarounds Higher deduction value limit for highest earners š§µ"
X Link 2025-06-29T15:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It seems counterintuitive that a Republican-controlled Congress would want to subsidize the property taxes of wealthy individuals in blue counties at the expense of hard-pressed workers in middle America. 2/3 of the benefits go to those making $500k most in rich blue counties"
X Link 2025-06-29T15:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Not only does the $40k SALT cap cost an additional $325 bn to U.S. taxpayers these changes: Reduce the capital stock by 1.4% Reduce long term wages by 0.5% Reduce long term GDP by 0.7% It's a losing move all around"
X Link 2025-06-29T15:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Republican policymakers will rightfully warn about the socialist policies of people like Mamdani. Yet they're enacting tax provisions that are going to help him pay for his socialist agenda at the expense of the Federal taxpayer in middle America"
X Link 2025-06-29T15:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A decline in the Federal workforce of [-----] workers over [--] months in the context of [--] years of Fed workforce trends. https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/tracking-efforts-to-shrink-the-size-684 https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/tracking-efforts-to-shrink-the-size-684"
X Link 2025-07-03T15:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@mtkonczal $5 trillion helicopter drop fueled excess savings over 80% of which had been depleted by late [----] normalizing goods consumption. Combined with supply chain improvements and Fed tightening anchoring expectations"
X Link 2025-07-07T19:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Based on treasury revenue data from May & June all tariffs currently raise enough revenue to fund [--] days of government spending. In [----] tariffs raised enough revenue to fund [--] days of government. Global trade war and knocking 0.8% off growth to get [--] extra days of gov funding"
X Link 2025-07-12T22:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The Quarterly Ledger: A Review of the Nations Balance Sheet Q3 [----] [--] months into FY2025 debt held by the public is $29 trillion. This is an increase of $1.4 trillion from the same time last year or roughly $8600 per federal taxpayer. š§µ https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-quarterly-ledger-a-review-of-5f9 https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-quarterly-ledger-a-review-of-5f9"
X Link 2025-07-14T18:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"For the past decade the share of public debt held by foreign investors has been in decline with foreign investors now holding 31% of public debt"
X Link 2025-07-14T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Other major holders include mutual funds with 15% the Federal Reserve with 14% money market funds with 10% while state and local governments and depository institutions both hold about 6% respectively"
X Link 2025-07-14T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"In sum the U.S. balance sheet remains structurally vulnerable marked by historically high debt levels growing interest costs and a heavy reliance on short-term refinancing"
X Link 2025-07-14T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Ill be updating The Quarterly Ledger series every quarter. Each edition will track key changes in the federal balance sheet including public debt levels budget deficits interest payments and different measures of sustainability. Follow along: https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-quarterly-ledger-a-review-of-5f9 https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-quarterly-ledger-a-review-of-5f9"
X Link 2025-07-14T18:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The inflation of [------] was not the result of an unpredictable storm of exogenous shocks but rather the predictable consequence of excessive aggregate demand fueled by unprecedented policy stimulus. https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/how-much-did-macroeconomic-policy https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/how-much-did-macroeconomic-policy"
X Link 2025-07-22T13:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The cost of inaction on Social Security reform. The median worker will have to forgo [--] months of earnings to cover the shortfall. To keep the program solvent indefinitely the median worker will have to forgo nearly [---] years of earnings. This is intergenerationally immoral šØYoung workers could lose $110000 in lifetime earnings just to keep Social Security solvent. We break it down in a new blog on the Debt Dispatchthe #1 Substack on fiscal policy read by 4000+ (and growing)š§µ š Full blog in the reply. https://t.co/eishEi3Iso šØYoung workers could lose $110000 in lifetime earnings just to"
X Link 2025-07-22T15:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger argued for a U.S. SWF in the WSJ pointing to Norway Singapore UAE. But heres the catch: all of them run budget surpluses. The U.S. A 7% average deficit for [--] years. No surplus no sovereign wealth. š§µ Sovereign Wealth Funds: A Political Slush Fund in Disguise https://t.co/YONuf91h2m Sovereign Wealth Funds: A Political Slush Fund in Disguise https://t.co/YONuf91h2m"
X Link 2025-07-24T14:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Norways surplus 10% of GDP. Singapore 3.6%. UAE Just under 3%. These surpluses fund their SWFs. The U.S. by contrast is barreling toward $116 trillion in new debt over [--] years. No extra cash = no SWF without more borrowing"
X Link 2025-07-24T14:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"If this arbitrage opportunity were real private investors would already exploit it. Markets arent short on capital. The idea that only the government can tap into this magical spread is nave and economically incoherent"
X Link 2025-07-24T14:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Could the U.S. fund an SWF from oil royalties like Norway Not even close. Over [--------] the feds earned $74B from oil and gas. But we ran a $11.6 trillion deficit. Thats 157x the royalties. The math doesnt work"
X Link 2025-07-24T14:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"An SWF also distorts incentives. If the government owns shares in firms it has a regulatory conflict of interest favoring incumbents hurting competition and undermining market discipline. Thats corporatism not capitalism"
X Link 2025-07-24T14:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Austrias SWF owns major stakes in the postal service electric utilities and real estate. This isnt investment its soft nationalization. The line between ownership and control blurs and markets suffer"
X Link 2025-07-24T14:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Survey of [--] economists There is no evidence to suggest that the employment estimates produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are biased so as to favor any particular political party"
X Link 2025-08-11T15:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Universal Basic Income: High Cost Low Returns and Unintended Consequences https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/universal-basic-income-high-costr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/universal-basic-income-high-costr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false"
X Link 2025-08-12T14:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I attempt to synthesize the the impact of debt on growth from over [---] estimates in the literature using a meta regression approach. I find that each percentage point increase in the public debt ratio reduces economic growth by [----] basis points"
X Link 2025-08-13T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Given that the current level of public debt in the United States is around 100% of GDP and the nonlinear threshold level was crossed in [----] the central estimate can be used to calculate that economic growth is roughly [----] percentage points lower today thanks to the debt drag"
X Link 2025-08-13T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"In other words if real GDP growth in [----] is 2% it would have been closer to 2.3% if the debt had stayed at [----] levels. Using the latest CBO long-term budget projections economic growth in [----] is estimated to be about [--] percentage point lower thanks to the debt drag"
X Link 2025-08-13T18:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"New IMF WP finds similar results as I did re: debt and interest rates. Importantly the impact parameter has been growing in recent https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2025/07/11/The-Impact-of-Debt-and-Deficits-on-Long-Term-Interest-Rates-in-the-US-568444 My Latest Policy Brief: The CBO Is Underestimating the Interest Rate Impact of Public Debt For decades falling interest rates were seen as structural and inevitable. The spike in recent years suggests something else is at playsomething the CBO is downplaying. Lets dig in. š§µ"
X Link 2025-08-14T15:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Government wasn't fiscally responsible for the first [--] months of [----]. It was restrained by the debt ceiling"
X Link 2025-08-14T19:50Z [----] followers, 15.9K engagements
"My latest at NRO. Tariffs wont fix a $2T deficit. While slowing growth and imposing a significant financial burden on households a year of new tariffs will fund just 9-12 days of government spending. https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/08/tariffs-wont-bridge-the-fiscal-gap/ https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/08/tariffs-wont-bridge-the-fiscal-gap/"
X Link 2025-08-15T14:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Given what weve seen with Intel just imagine what government would do with a Sovereign Wealth Fund. This is precisely what Ive warned about. https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/sovereign-wealth-funds-a-political https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/sovereign-wealth-funds-a-political"
X Link 2025-08-23T21:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Inflation Risk in a World of Fiscal Dominance The Fed should refrain from caving to political pressures https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/inflation-risk-in-a-world-of-fiscalr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/inflation-risk-in-a-world-of-fiscalr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false"
X Link 2025-08-25T19:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The End of Policymaking Revisited https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-end-of-policymaking-revisitedr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/the-end-of-policymaking-revisitedr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false"
X Link 2025-09-02T18:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Debt held by the public crossed the $30 trillion mark earlier this week after more than $200bn in new debt was added to the debt stock in the past week alone. That's $1.25 trillion in newly issued debt in [--] weeks"
X Link 2025-09-04T16:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Another [-----] manufacturing jobs disappeared in August. That brings the total to [-----] job losses since "Liberation Day". @MichaelRStrain warned that far from reviving manufacturing employment tariffs are more likely to shrink it. Tariffs Dont Bring Back Factory Jobs Michael Strain dismantles the case for protectionism https://t.co/hlmMOsy4Rm Tariffs Dont Bring Back Factory Jobs Michael Strain dismantles the case for protectionism https://t.co/hlmMOsy4Rm"
X Link 2025-09-05T12:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Using forecasting models we can estimate where trade jobs and prices would have been without tariffs then compare with reality. That gives us a soft test of whether tariffs are working or backfiring. I projected the U.S. goods trade deficit with a Holt-Winters model"
X Link 2025-09-08T19:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The actual goods trade deficit was much larger than forecast. From FebJuly the cumulative deficit was $45B larger than projected. If measured from Jan the gap grows to $95B larger"
X Link 2025-09-08T19:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Whats the Tax Rate for the Forbes [---] @adamnmichel correcting the record on how much billionaires pay in taxes. "adding annual charitable giving raises.to [--] percent and including end-of-life bequests pushes it as high as [--] percent." https://open.substack.com/pub/adamnmichel/p/whats-the-tax-rate-for-the-forbesr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://open.substack.com/pub/adamnmichel/p/whats-the-tax-rate-for-the-forbesr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false"
X Link 2025-09-09T15:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Do Not Forget Venice: Debt Monetary Policy and the Risks of Fiscal Dominance https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/do-not-forget-venice-debt-monetaryr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/do-not-forget-venice-debt-monetaryr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false"
X Link 2025-09-15T14:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A case study in how border taxes raise the daily cost of living. Just [--] years ago coffee was about $1.50lb. Now its about $4.14lb (+21% Y-o-Y) https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-tariff-lesson-for-coffee-drinkers-brazil-trade-trump-24e595c7mod=opinion_lead_pos3 https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-tariff-lesson-for-coffee-drinkers-brazil-trade-trump-24e595c7mod=opinion_lead_pos3"
X Link 2025-09-16T20:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The last time the Federal Reserve cut rates when (1) inflation was on an upward trajectory and (2) unemployment rate was relatively low was 1966"
X Link 2025-09-17T15:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Continuing Resolutions Arent Real Fiscal Policy Rather they showcase central planning inertia and entrench the last bad bargain https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/continuing-resolutions-arent-realr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false https://www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/continuing-resolutions-arent-realr=1idhes&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false"
X Link 2025-09-17T19:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This chart shows the fiscal impact of tax policy announcements attributed to deficit reduction. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/25-inflation-50-years https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/25-inflation-50-years"
X Link 2025-09-23T15:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This change in the fiscal policy regime was pointed out by Chancellor Nigel Lawson in his [----] Budget speech: A sound monetary policy needs to be buttressed by a prudent fiscal stance.""
X Link 2025-09-23T15:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"After spiking by $1.34 trillion over [--] months public debt levels seem to be stabilizing at about $30.2 trillion (99% of GDP). Debt surge in JulyAug was likely catch-up from debt ceiling pause. Debt may now grow in line with the underlying deficit ($100-300bn per month)"
X Link 2025-09-24T14:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@MarcGoldwein Exactly. If markets doubt future surpluses will cover todays deficits the price level rises until the real value of debt matches expected repayment. Inflation then becomes a kind of forced debt restructuring not just a side effect"
X Link 2025-09-24T14:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
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