#  @Zerosumgame33 0SG 0SG posts on X about $clmt, tesla, $tsla, business the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1255570072866783233/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +120% - [--] Month [-------] +252% - [--] Months [---------] +1,353% - [--] Year [---------] +81% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1255570072866783233/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +11% - [--] Month [--] +163% - [--] Months [---] +115% - [--] Year [---] -55% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1255570072866783233/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +0.52% - [--] Month [------] +1.30% - [--] Months [------] +7.70% - [--] Year [------] +18% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1255570072866783233/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) 58.18% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 56.36% [finance](/list/finance) 25.45% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 6.36% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 5.45% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 5.45% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 1.82% [products](/list/products) 0.91% **Social topic influence** [$clmt](/topic/$clmt) #1, [tesla](/topic/tesla) 17.27%, [$tsla](/topic/$tsla) 14.55%, [business](/topic/business) 7.27%, [out of](/topic/out-of) 5.45%, [this is](/topic/this-is) 4.55%, [mega](/topic/mega) 4.55%, [tech](/topic/tech) 3.64%, [ttm](/topic/ttm) 3.64%, [wall street](/topic/wall-street) 3.64% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@bullstkpicks](/creator/undefined) [@elonmusk](/creator/undefined) [@netmelc](/creator/undefined) [@dmottco](/creator/undefined) [@oilandgibbs](/creator/undefined) [@beentherecap](/creator/undefined) [@wholemars](/creator/undefined) [@wr4nygov](/creator/undefined) [@jpsartrenoexit](/creator/undefined) [@gordonjohnson19](/creator/undefined) [@freebirdsteven](/creator/undefined) [@biofuelslaw](/creator/undefined) [@mymorristribe](/creator/undefined) [@billstolze](/creator/undefined) [@chrisstets](/creator/undefined) [@arbsensei](/creator/undefined) [@ratsensei1](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [DAR Open Network (DAR)](/topic/$dar) [Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)](/topic/$vlo) [Inverse Finance (INV)](/topic/$inv) [Lazard Ltd. Class A (LAZ)](/topic/$laz) [Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE)](/topic/$eose) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "$CLMT at a minimum the stock should be trading @ $35/share today to reflect the $2.25B private mark MRL got from the Warburg transaction in [----] prior to 1) MRL's commissioning 2) DOE Loan 3) SAF contracts 4) good RVO" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2022321010087768089) 2026-02-13T14:44Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT Manav Gupta @ UBS upgrades Calumet to $26. He caved. π€‘ $CLMT On today's episode of "Calumet's Sell-Side Analysts SUCK" The infamaous Manav Gupta over @ UBS with $13.25 $CLMT price target acknowledges the positive inflection in Renewable Diesel on the recent $VLO earnings call but fails to so much as write a new note on $CLMT after https://t.co/9r2Rdex55h $CLMT On today's episode of "Calumet's Sell-Side Analysts SUCK" The infamaous Manav Gupta over @ UBS with $13.25 $CLMT price target acknowledges the positive inflection in Renewable Diesel on the recent $VLO earnings call but fails to" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2022326323297837507) 2026-02-13T15:05Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "Seeing alot of smart ppl in my feed talking about the $INV vehicle & *allegedly* huge discount to NAV. R/R seems pretty damn compelling if Accelsius actually converts this $1B pipeline. I might do some real work on this. Seems like a ZSG special. [--] bagger [--] questions w/o doing any work: 1) Dilution 2) Mgmt comp 3) Mgmt track record I know $PCT was an exit https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022725655851319752 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022725655851319752" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2022725655851319752) 2026-02-14T17:32Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "Just going thru some of my older work (not posted on X). $LMB was probably the juiciest idea I was ever involved in. I wrote it up for VIC when it was $6 and it topped out at $150 gulp. I've noticed a trend over the years that company's (preferably small ones) with contractual backlogs turn out to be absolutely monstrous stocks. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022051223533183195 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022051223533183195" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2022051223533183195) 2026-02-12T20:52Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT π€‘π€‘π€‘π€‘ I am at a loss for words. This clown Manav Gupta is Neutral because "Calumet has still not instituted a dividend and near-term FCF generation is limited" No shit theres no f*cking dividend Manav this is a de-leveraging story $CLMT Manav Gupta @ UBS upgrades Calumet to $26. He caved. π€‘ $CLMT Manav Gupta @ UBS upgrades Calumet to $26. He caved. π€‘" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2022330652406792473) 2026-02-13T15:22Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "Decent start to the year +70%. Highly concentrated book" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2022853722561187847) 2026-02-15T02:01Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT Market DOES NOT understand the technology MRL has licensed to make SAF. This is a slide from MRL's SAF licensor Topsoe and its Hydroflex tech that was presented last month. MRL's process is recycling low-value off-gasses and naphta byproducts from its renewable diesel production as HYDROGEN FEEDSTOCK for the production of SAF. The result of internally recyclying this green hydrogen 1) single-digit SAF carbon intensity scores which result in HUGE LCFS credits 2) Hydrogen feedstock savings 3) 90% SAF yields. The market is absolutely clueless on how incredibly profitable MRL-specific SAF" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1995885849813094748) 2025-12-02T16:00Z 21.9K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT $DAR & $NTOIY - best SAF/RD comps for MRL now trading 9.2x forward EBITDA. Implied MRL within $CLMT @ $22/share is valued @ 4.5x EBITDA & 29% levered FCF yield @ $1.50 RD margin https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016891133972885844 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016891133972885844" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2016891133972885844) 2026-01-29T15:08Z 21.9K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT From $VLO's earnings call today: "There's a good chance D4 RINs are going to go UP" Gluck [--] da CLMT shorts https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016951712813039759 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016951712813039759" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2016951712813039759) 2026-01-29T19:08Z 21.9K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT π¨Part 2: Trying not to fall off my chair. Goldman's MRL earnings build up in their model underpinning their $24 PT assumes 56% capture of a.drum roll please.$0.29/gallon Renewable Diesel Index Margin built off a $1/gal D4 RIN. I swear you cant make this shit up. @OilandGibbs . you have some work to do to educate Goldman on how this works. $CLMT HAHAHA Alright I got my hands on the new $CLMT Goldman model. 1st year analyst @ GS responsible for his $24 PT. 1) EXCLUDES APPROXIMATELY $100 MILLION DOLLARS OF 45Z PTC CREDITS IN HIS FREE CASH FLOW NUMBER 2) INCLUDES $40M DOE NON-CASH INTEREST" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2017289492449653045) 2026-01-30T17:31Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT safe haven" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2019554465054093645) 2026-02-05T23:31Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT dont forget that MRL's decision to purchase the 2nd reactor was a result of strategic investor interest as part of the prior MRL sale process w/ Lazard which failed to materialize prior to the 2023-2025 RVO blunder. With 2026-2027 RVO upon us [--] days away will create a massive appetite for MRL. MaxSAF150 + 2nd Reactor @ $1.50-$1.75 RD = $60-$70 per share. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019781912961700116 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019781912961700116" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2019781912961700116) 2026-02-06T14:35Z 21.9K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT Consensus [----] EBITDA across [--] sell side estimates is $444M. The base business is doing $325-$350M EBITDA @ mid-cycle crack spreads The street doesn't think MRL will clear $100M next year. I think MRL will be on a $300M EBITDA run rate in Q3 of this year. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019855970026025359 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019855970026025359" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2019855970026025359) 2026-02-06T19:29Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT Two best comps $DAR & $NTOIY now trade @ 9.4% and 7.7% levered FCF yields on [----] consensus estimates. 9% FCF yield on $CLMT's [----] FCF is a $50 stock. Layer in MRL's 2nd reactor that can add another $100M+ FCF and $CLMT is a $70 stock. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020885582541455484 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020885582541455484" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2020885582541455484) 2026-02-09T15:40Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT If you want conviction look no further: This is a chart of Biodiesel Operating Margin per gallon dating back to [----] compiled weekly by Iowa State University. Pre [----] RVO cycle Biodiesel was typically making $0.25/gal PROFIT over a [--] year cycle. Renewable Diesel margin would be well over $2/gal with a return back to Biodiesel making $0.25/gal profit & MRL would be doing $500M EBITDA. Data link: https://www.card.iastate.edu/tools/operating-margins/b=biodiesel $CLMT The fact that RINs have surged here in Q1 despite Biodiesel margins still [--] cents underwater is outrageously bullish for" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2021598348596154379) 2026-02-11T14:53Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "I have $8 lots from last April when the infamous Manav Gupta @ the bucket shop over at UBS downgraded the stock on . drum roll please. $1 Blenders tax credit permanently eroding margins into perpetutity. Surprised hes still allowed to opine on the space after that one. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022031649261633829 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022031649261633829" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2022031649261633829) 2026-02-12T19:34Z 22K followers, [---] engagements "@BeenThereCap UBS is now at $475M EBITDA in [----]. I'm at $750M w/ the 2nd reactor" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2022335020145488004) 2026-02-13T15:40Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT This $DAR earnings call is encouraging.mgmt 1) bullish RD 2) very bullish US SAF pricing/volume & SAFc credits w/ tech companies 3) bullish RVO/RINs" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2021961959457882325) 2026-02-12T14:57Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT I have Manav's new Calumet model. He is modeling $47M EBITDA @ MRL in [----] and $184M EBITDA @ MRL in [----] that underpin his $26 Price Target. With the 2nd reactor stood up & $1.75 RD margin I'm closer to $450M MRL EBITDA in [----] π€‘π€‘π€‘ $CLMT Manav Gupta @ UBS upgrades Calumet to $26. He caved. π€‘ $CLMT Manav Gupta @ UBS upgrades Calumet to $26. He caved. π€‘" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2022348188879847514) 2026-02-13T16:32Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT $50 by 2H [----]. Pinned" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1901657390698606983) 2025-03-17T15:30Z 22K followers, 12.4K engagements "$CLMT On today's episode of "Calumet's Sell-Side Analysts SUCK" The infamaous Manav Gupta over @ UBS with $13.25 $CLMT price target acknowledges the positive inflection in Renewable Diesel on the recent $VLO earnings call but fails to so much as write a new note on $CLMT after its Jan 9th conference or revise PT after their Q4 pre-release. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019054222981894435 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019054222981894435" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2019054222981894435) 2026-02-04T14:23Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT Critically important to understand that no sell-side analyst (UBS Goldman TD BofA) is modeling MRL's SAF earnings. I have all their updated models. MRL's SAF pricing is a fixed premium to spot renewable diesel. the street does not understand this (still). For example here is a snapshot of how Manav Gupta over @ UBS is projecting his new $475M EBITDA at $CLMT in [----]. NO SAF just Renewable Diesel Where the F*ck is the SAF And why is corporate $138M drag when today is $80M The combination of no SAF earnings + wrong corporate overhead is $200M EBITDA thats completely missing. As MRL brings" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2022686839786582107) 2026-02-14T14:58Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "@Bullstkpicks Appreciate the thoughts. 1) where is the tech on its s-curve (#1 to figure out) 2) are there other similar tech offerings by larger players in the mkt or is Accelsius novel Customer switching costs 3) what was the implied mark on the asset after the recent $25M raise" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2022732732837564469) 2026-02-14T18:00Z 22K followers, [---] engagements "Thanks v interesting. So w/ $INV stock @ $3/sh. fair to say mkt is ascribing Accelsius value back to shareholders at the last private mark that $3.40 print is @ $INV's 40% ownership How do u think these guys ultimately crystalize Acceslsius value if ur right on pipeline conversion Is this a sale to PE IPO How do we ultimately get paid b/c discount to NAV will always exist. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022739721030414378 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022739721030414378" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2022739721030414378) 2026-02-14T18:28Z 22K followers, [---] engagements "In my spare time I like to build things to distract from my stock picking endeavors. I wanted a new hobby so about a year ago I bought myself basic tools (Miter saw most importantly) and started YouTubing. I am not anywhere close to a pro carpenter but Im proud of this Highly therapeutic. YouTube and Facebook reels have taught me a lot and its all free" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2023020766292263359) 2026-02-15T13:05Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT Has already pre-released Q4 earnings but reports on 2/27. Per the pre-release MRL indicated break-even in Q4 which makes sense considering RD index margin was $0.72/gal based on average Soybean Oil LA Carb Diesel CA LCFS & D4 RIN prices. This indicates that MRL captured the RD index less $0.50/gal of site opex + SG&A and after $0.23/gal of feedstock transportation. Critically important to understand that the SAF premium at currently contracted 30Mgpy with Shell 1:1 offsets the feedstock transportation & naphta byproduct losses hence why the SAF premium has been "invisible" in MRL's" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2023156628896333936) 2026-02-15T22:05Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT the plan:" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2019597931184292005) 2026-02-06T02:24Z 21.9K followers, [----] engagements "$CLMT & Dont forget. per the last earnings call MRL already has a customer ready to take the 2nd reactor capacity. $CLMT dont forget that MRL's decision to purchase the 2nd reactor was a result of strategic investor interest as part of the prior MRL sale process w/ Lazard which failed to materialize prior to the 2023-2025 RVO blunder. With 2026-2027 RVO upon us [--] days away will create a https://t.co/DzfjlC4T8Q $CLMT dont forget that MRL's decision to purchase the 2nd reactor was a result of strategic investor interest as part of the prior MRL sale process w/ Lazard which failed to" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/2019786103708962874) 2026-02-06T14:51Z 21.9K followers, [----] engagements "Critical observation: TSLA's Megapacks have extreme pricing power. Megapack XL coming out of Lathrop commands an 80% premium to #2 US competitor Fluence (FLNC). on ASP per MWh charged to customer. FLNC caters to utility-scale customers but average order size based on. 1/ Lets face it most TSLA investors are involved in the stock for the growth of the EV business/EV adoption/Replacement demand opportunity as ICE/gas vehicle demand withers to zero. Most if not all investors are IGNORING the significance of TSLAs Lathrop factory. 1/ Lets face it most TSLA investors are involved in the stock for" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1609281687774543873) 2022-12-31T20:13Z 22K followers, 98.6K engagements "Dont forget the market has priced Tesla energy as a $0. [----] will surprise. Megapack gross profit is 70x that of one EV. None of this is priced in or being discussed by the street. Analysts are too distracted trying to GUESS on quarterly delivery numbers. Big picture" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1610004203522383875) 2023-01-02T20:04Z 22K followers, 34.3K engagements "πTSLA missed by 3% in a q where 40% of their customer base was faced with buying now vs. buying later with $7.5k tax credit (15% of ASP) avail Jan [--]. The IRA created a major material timing issue for buyers. If a company ever deserves a pass its now. Bears too excited" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1610046437307318273) 2023-01-02T22:52Z 22K followers, 34.5K engagements "I dont know what I said but two weeks ago I had [--] followers and now I have 5K. I guess some people are reading my shit π€·πΌ just trying to make $$" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1611194255892004866) 2023-01-06T02:53Z 22K followers, 91.5K engagements "π«’ Hold up.If TSLA can produce $3 of EPS out of one [--] GWH factory and their [----] goal is [----] GWH (68% CAGR) and there is infinite demand for battery storage $3 x (1500/40) = $112.50 x [--] / 15% cost of capital disc. [--] years is $1057 per share just for Megapacks. Gulp.π" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1612492450446118913) 2023-01-09T16:52Z 22K followers, 67.7K engagements "How will the market re-rate TSLA stock when it soon discovers 50% of [----] EPS will come from a RECESSION PROOF business with extreme pricing power fat margins overwhelming production capacity share& software contracts I would be deathly afraid to be short the stock here. π«£" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1612529640295260182) 2023-01-09T19:20Z 22K followers, 39.3K engagements "@wholemars Omar Megapacks are the single greatest opportunity I've seen in my experience in public equity investing particularly relative to TSLA's current market cap. I'm willing to die on the sword" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1613601461237174274) 2023-01-12T18:19Z 22K followers, 30.1K engagements "Ive spent 3-5 hours a day for the past [--] weeks researching the ins and outs of the TSLA Energy/Megapack story (Ive probably shared 1/3 of my work/thoughts on Twitter) it parallels AMZN/AWS circa 2018/19 which led to the AMZN price explosion" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1614003078902042624) 2023-01-13T20:54Z 22K followers, 115.9K engagements "Megapack model. Im at $4.50 EPS in [----] from [--] GWh of production. 25x is $116 per share. https://t.co/DOLcehtmYg https://t.co/DOLcehtmYg" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1614254396459847681) 2023-01-14T13:33Z 22K followers, 45.7K engagements "My wife and I went out for dinner tonight. We talked a lot about Megapack economics. She gets it.π€£" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1614817209200558080) 2023-01-16T02:49Z 22K followers, 37.2K engagements "πBig boys are buying TSLA in the dark pools" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1617585298246094853) 2023-01-23T18:09Z 22K followers, 111.7K engagements "Ohhhh nothing much to see here folks. Except for the #1 raw material in TSLA Megapacks - Lithium Carbonate 99.5% - down 20% off its peak in [--] months. MEGA MARGINS" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1617615574103908355) 2023-01-23T20:09Z 22K followers, 27.6K engagements "Shorting TSLA in the $300-$350's given the macro backdrop sorta made sense. Shorting TSLA in the low $100's makes no sense. Whoever is shorting TSLA at these levels thinks earnings are permanently impaired" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1617941840019468290) 2023-01-24T17:46Z 22K followers, 23.8K engagements "@WR4NYGov @JPSartre_NoExit This proves youre out sniffing for controversy just to get followers and eyeballs to your YouTube channel. Im not engaging" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1618562743447216128) 2023-01-26T10:53Z 22K followers, 13.4K engagements "Think this move in Tesla off the low is huge Just wait till the market soon realizes the energy biz is much better margins and much bigger TAM and recession proof and the government is giving out 50% coupons to buyers. π«£π«£π«£π«£π€" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1619021397627650051) 2023-01-27T17:15Z 22K followers, 34.5K engagements "$TSLA if we break $190 brings $240 real quick & sets up for the $260 gap fill" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1621135071636819972) 2023-02-02T13:14Z 22K followers, 54.5K engagements "@GordonJohnson19 This is the first sensible thing Ive seen you tweet since I discovered your existence" [X Link](https://x.com/Zerosumgame33/status/1635083237914722306) 2023-03-13T00:59Z 22K followers, [----] engagements "1/.As of TTM ending 3Q22 TSLAs Energy business (5% of total TSLA revenue) has generated an underwhelming gross profit of ZERO. Many analysts on Wall St. overlook its potential- rightfully so given its sub-scale operation yielding very poor unit economics thus being" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1604589781325074432) 2022-12-18T21:29Z 22K followers, 1.1M engagements "3/.next-gen Megapack XLs (hereinafter referred to MPs) in the Lathrop CA. mega factory which broke ground last September and within a years time has just become fully operational. Prior to Lathrop TSLA produced smaller format MPs in Nevada these are being phased" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1604589785221324804) 2022-12-18T21:29Z 22K followers, 26.6K engagements "4/.out now. Lathrop began pumping out larger format MPs in Late Sept/early Oct at the tail end of 3Q22 which failed to materialize into 3Q earnings. 4Q is set up for material earnings from Lathrop and will 100% flow thru to TSLAs earnings by 1Q23" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1604589787104567303) 2022-12-18T21:29Z 22K followers, 25.2K engagements "5/.By year-end [----] TSLA will have deployed [--] GwH of capacity equivalent to an 8x increase in GwH deployments over the TTM period ending 3Q22 with upwards of $16B in gross profit contribution generated by TSLA existing and unconstrained 16K current MP backlog at Lathrop" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1604589788954238980) 2022-12-18T21:29Z 22K followers, 24.3K engagements "7/.According to insiders familiar with the Lathrop ramp at the end of October TSLA had gone from pre-production/tooling/commissioning to ramping production capacity to [--] MP's per day at Lathrop all in the span of [--] to [--] weeks According to TSLAs MP configurator the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1604589796944330752) 2022-12-18T21:29Z 22K followers, 21.6K engagements "8/.earliest delivery date is 3Q24. At [--] MPs prod. per day todays backlog is worth 16K MPs compared to current max capacity at Lathrop of 10k MPs at max capacity of [--] GwH. In other words there's about [---] years of backlog with de minimis bottleneck supply constraints" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1604589798890536961) 2022-12-18T21:29Z 22K followers, 24.7K engagements "$TSLA Everyone crying for a $10B buyback should shift their focus to crying for more Megapack factories. It cost TSLA $200M to open/buy the Lathrop CA. factory with a [--] month ramp-up. Breakeven unit is [---] Megapacks which at current production rates they can make in [--] days. 1/.As of TTM ending 3Q22 TSLAs Energy business (5% of total TSLA revenue) has generated an underwhelming gross profit of ZERO. Many analysts on Wall St. overlook its potential- rightfully so given its sub-scale operation yielding very poor unit economics thus being. 1/.As of TTM ending 3Q22 TSLAs Energy business (5% of" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1605068543669706753) 2022-12-20T05:12Z 22K followers, 53.3K engagements "At $140/sh. with a fully diluted market cap of $485B $TSLA is trading for 20x the NET CASH on its balance sheet as of 4Q" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1605259843996385281) 2022-12-20T17:52Z 22K followers, 54.8K engagements "$TSLA Bear raid margin calls fund liquidations put gamma squeeze EoY tax loss selling ESG funds dumping you name it. There is nothing fundamental about this move to $140" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1605298973857550336) 2022-12-20T20:27Z 22K followers, 42.4K engagements "1/In Sept. [--] TSLA won a massive Megapack supply agreement of [--] GwH from a big renewables co. named Arevon. At the time of the win TSLA didnt have enough capacity to fullfill the project So TDLA decided to build [--] GwH at Lathrop. 1/.As of TTM ending 3Q22 TSLAs Energy business (5% of total TSLA revenue) has generated an underwhelming gross profit of ZERO. Many analysts on Wall St. overlook its potential- rightfully so given its sub-scale operation yielding very poor unit economics thus being. 1/.As of TTM ending 3Q22 TSLAs Energy business (5% of total TSLA revenue) has generated an" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1605767320701263872) 2022-12-22T03:28Z 22K followers, 164.8K engagements "@elonmusk You need to hire new coders bro. Anyone can right-click on the Megapack ordering page on the Tesla website pull up the Devtools page and search in the scripts for your Megapack XL gross margins to the penny that feed into the pricing formula.πππππ€£π€£π€£" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1606088837913907200) 2022-12-23T00:46Z 22K followers, 106.6K engagements "1/Here is my updated $TSLA Energy model based on the earnings power potential out of Lathrop producing Megapack XL (4-hour duration/3.92 MwH) using the exacty cost of goods (fixed/variable) per my web scraping of the front-end of the Megapack order configurator" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1606707444549406722) 2022-12-24T17:44Z 22K followers, 120.2K engagements "10/ After reasonable opex and 15% tax I estimate TSLA will earn $3/share in EPS from selling Megapacks out of Lathrop in [----]. At 30x (comp NEE trades at 27x) Lathrop at full capacity is conservatively worth $90 per TSLA share or of today's abysmal TSLA share price today" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1606707464749064195) 2022-12-24T17:44Z 22K followers, 142.1K engagements "Why is Tesla energy ignored and why does the opportunity exist 1) TSLA covered strictly by auto analysts 2) historically no gross profit given sub-scale (Pre-Lathrop) 3) TSLA has mentioned the word Megapack on earnings calls only [--] times over the past 2+ years" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1608213015865720834) 2022-12-28T21:27Z 22K followers, 93.7K engagements "How does the stock react when in the next quarter or two the market realizes Lathrop will provide Tesla a recession-proof earnings stream selling a mission critical system financed by tax credits to utilities that dampens the cyclicality of autos πππ" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1608250143500910594) 2022-12-28T23:54Z 22K followers, 31.2K engagements "Over the next 6-12 months as $TSLA gains traction in FSD Energy Insurance AI the market will be forced to value the company on a sum of the parts basis rather than purely on cyclical auto earnings. Thats the playbook that gets us $1T market cap" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1608465577860894722) 2022-12-29T14:10Z 22K followers, 20K engagements "Edit: I wouldnt be obsessing over Megapacks as much if 20+ Wall Street analysts covering Tesla werent ignoring it so badly. Consensus for Energy is $2B in gross profit by [----]. They might do $10B at Lathrop alone next year and into [--]. βWhen you CRUSH market expectations" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1608672104567951361) 2022-12-30T03:51Z 22K followers, 40.1K engagements "Everyone panicking about Tesla missing numbers have never experienced a relief rally before. Buy-side Expectations were horrific going into the q the street # doesnt matter. We had a 50% drawdown in a matter of wiz - that rarely happens in mega cap tech. My bet is green Tom" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1609966106281902080) 2023-01-02T17:33Z 22K followers, 97.1K engagements "Update on the Megapack order configurator. Earliest delivery date is now 4Q'24 vs. 3Q'24 last week. Backlog growing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1610321078370304001) 2023-01-03T17:03Z 22K followers, 36.8K engagements "Megapack https://electrek.co/2023/01/03/neoen-announces-tesla-megapack-project/ https://electrek.co/2023/01/03/neoen-announces-tesla-megapack-project/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1610323950999048193) 2023-01-03T17:15Z 22K followers, 46.5K engagements "Tweeting this again because it is likely THE BEGINNING of the Megapack hysteria soon to come. The market still IGNORING. There is [----] MW of BOOKED Megapack business Tesla will be BRINGING ONLINE and PAID by 2Q [----]. Equivalent to [----] total Megapacks. 1/In Sept. [--] TSLA won a massive Megapack supply agreement of [--] GwH from a big renewables co. named Arevon. At the time of the win TSLA didnt have enough capacity to fullfill the project So TDLA decided to build [--] GwH at Lathrop. https://t.co/HAobwCuX6x 1/In Sept. [--] TSLA won a massive Megapack supply agreement of [--] GwH from a big renewables" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1610710673897684992) 2023-01-04T18:52Z 22K followers, 71.6K engagements "$TSLA Wall streets [----] EPS range is $3.77 to $7.97 π Im at $9 inclusive of cuts to EV ASP. I think Megapacks are destined to surprise" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1611158431058071554) 2023-01-06T00:31Z 22K followers, 30.4K engagements "Im currently working on a thread defending my views that 50% Megapack margins are factual sustainable defensible and durable. π excited to share. $TSLA" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1611510401597931521) 2023-01-06T23:49Z 22K followers, 199.7K engagements "1/ I believe TSLAs 50%+ hardware margins for Megapack are sustainable defensible and durable. 50% hardware margins come straight from web-scraping Teslas order configurator from Margins are a function of drivers of price and cost. http://Tesla.com Im currently working on a thread defending my views that 50% Megapack margins are factual sustainable defensible and durable. π excited to share. $TSLA http://Tesla.com Im currently working on a thread defending my views that 50% Megapack margins are factual sustainable defensible and durable. π excited to share. $TSLA" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1611582162435821569) 2023-01-07T04:35Z 22K followers, 424.7K engagements "1/Surprised NOBODY is talking about this CATL news.TSLA will now have zero issue sourcing battery cells from CATL for 10K Megapacks going forward as CATL very recently expanded into the upstream part of the Lithium Carbonate (LCE) supply chain the key raw material that. 1/ I believe TSLAs 50%+ hardware margins for Megapack are sustainable defensible and durable. 50% hardware margins come straight from web-scraping Teslas order configurator from https://t.co/lrCLbHPj2I. Margins are a function of drivers of price and cost. 1/ I believe TSLAs 50%+ hardware margins for Megapack are sustainable" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1612128037386043392) 2023-01-08T16:44Z 22K followers, 97.6K engagements "REAL MONEY is made when you can identify with conviction the street is wrong/low. The street is RARELY wrong. Mega cap companies are WELL COVERED. Tesla energy - Megapacks - is a diamond in the rough that will create millionaires" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1613362549075984384) 2023-01-12T02:29Z 22K followers, 24.6K engagements "Advice: Ignore anyone talking "price targets". Real experienced savvy investors do not talk this way. "Price targets" are fictitious sell-side/wall street verbiages to keep the research commission checks flowing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1614062129681678339) 2023-01-14T00:49Z 22K followers, 34.6K engagements "Is Megapack XL the Apple Iphone of Energy Storage Take a lookππ.I dug into competitors hardware data specs contract terms and warranty provisions to determine Megapack XL is superior to most alternatives. Its fair to conclude CATL has a somewhat comparable storage offering" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1614472335595012097) 2023-01-15T03:59Z 22K followers, 148.6K engagements "TSLA Megapack is eerily similar to AMZN AWS. Look what happened in Q1 [----] when AMZN broke-out AWS in its financial statements. The rest was history. AWS Cloud Storage = Megapack Energy Storage" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1614487392584450048) 2023-01-15T04:59Z 22K followers, 40K engagements "Bravo π€ great Megapack thread by the Cat. I repeat: LATHROP MEGAPACK RAMP IS NOT IN WALL STREET NUMBERS/EXPECTATIONS. π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨ 1/Megapack has been generating a lot of noise in the community lately. There has been a ton of great info shared by @Zerosumgame33 on most every aspect of the Megapack business. At first glance the numbers seem too good to be true. How can Megapack be this disruptive 1/Megapack has been generating a lot of noise in the community lately. There has been a ton of great info shared by @Zerosumgame33 on most every aspect of the Megapack business. At first glance the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1614646590538452993) 2023-01-15T15:32Z 22K followers, 24.8K engagements "Elons Twitter drama coupled with Fed over-tightening post-pandemic are two black swan gifts to non-TSLA shareholders who want in and current TSLA shareholders who want more" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1614697560303714310) 2023-01-15T18:54Z 22K followers, 24.7K engagements "πTSLA Lathrop now on-line leapfrogs them ahead of the energy storage pack. (BESS only not battery cell mfg.)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1614740670635188230) 2023-01-15T21:45Z 22K followers, 45.1K engagements "Mic Drop. Sound the ALARM. π’π’π’π’π’π’π’ Is TSLA soliciting companies located in 1) high fire threat districts in 2) low income/disadvantaged communities offering them to deliver/install Megapacks for FREE To capitalize on INSANELY LUCRATIVE state incentives like" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1615088019953909760) 2023-01-16T20:46Z 22K followers, 87.4K engagements "TSLA virtual power plant (VPP) appears to be scaling another potential sleeping giant in TSLAs energy complex being ignored/not valued. https://electrek.co/2022/09/02/tesla-virtual-power-plant-growing/ https://electrek.co/2022/09/02/tesla-virtual-power-plant-growing/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1615160740431757312) 2023-01-17T01:35Z 22K followers, 39K engagements "Why did Elon say Q4 would be epic Strange the only real catalyst that supports such boldness is Lathrop production coming online. Im not saying this is my base case but if the [--] per day figure is true could Q4 show an 8-10 GWh deployment I wonderπ§" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1615811497946644481) 2023-01-18T20:40Z 22K followers, 64.3K engagements "My conviction on TSLA Megapacks just quadrupled. When the biggest TSLA bear on the street doesnt know the GWh capacity of Lathrop - and therefore hasnt crunched the numbers on earnings power - you know the opportunity is rather significant. The Astonishing Economics of the Tesla Megapack Its come to my attention that the $TSLA Faithful are beginning a new bull narrative(FSD and robots are so 2021-22) based on Megapack utility-scale battery storage. See this breathless article below: https://t.co/oyDFCmdoH1 The Astonishing Economics of the Tesla Megapack Its come to my attention that the $TSLA" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1615835166122942475) 2023-01-18T22:14Z 22K followers, 106.2K engagements "π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨ Further evidence of 50% Megapack margins - a full blown analysis wall street has missed. π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨ Conclusions: β TSLA did not sell any Megapack XLs out of Lathrop in 3Q herein referred to as MP2" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1616984043731419137) 2023-01-22T02:20Z 22K followers, 231.8K engagements "TSLA $400 by 1/1/24 Calls go $4 -- $50 I would not sell there either. TSLA Energy being ignored. TSLA Energy will surpass TSLA EV" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1617580914434875395) 2023-01-23T17:51Z 22K followers, 38.9K engagements "TSLA Lathrop is going to SHOCK all the auto analysts in [----]. A tsunami of MP2's is coming and wall street is in the eye of the storm" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1617916305893621760) 2023-01-24T16:04Z 22K followers, 27.5K engagements "How many times do I have to reiterate that megapack is a 2023/2024 play and not q4 [----] The more I see this shit the less I wanna post my thoughts. @Zerosumgame33 I hope you are correct but you're going to have a major reckoning after this investor call tomorrow. You've been throwing out pretty lofty numbers and I'm sure they're going to address megapack. If you're right that's great but if not you've been throwing out a ton of HYPE @Zerosumgame33 I hope you are correct but you're going to have a major reckoning after this investor call tomorrow. You've been throwing out pretty lofty numbers" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1618010401404514305) 2023-01-24T22:18Z 22K followers, 31.5K engagements "My only motive in this operation was to help. With the stock down 70% from ATH I was hoping some helpless shareholder(s) would read a different perspective on what to be excited for in the near term instead of realizing losses in his/her retirement account. Im not here to pump" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1618011692377702400) 2023-01-24T22:23Z 22K followers, 10.1K engagements "Holy crap. why is this not getting more attention 4680's going into stationary storage FF [--] Min. Gulp.π @Zerosumgame33 @elonmusk https://t.co/Y6eNPRyRWm Tesla just posted this a few hours ago @Zerosumgame33 @elonmusk https://t.co/Y6eNPRyRWm Tesla just posted this a few hours ago" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1618275799307812865) 2023-01-25T15:53Z 22K followers, 65K engagements "IMO TSLA either going to $115-$120 or $165 tomorrow. Buckle up. Adding to my position $110" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1618305331058315264) 2023-01-25T17:50Z 22K followers, 43.6K engagements "I need to go thru the 4Q numbers. but the thing that stands out the most FOR me Based on my math TSLA sold [---] MP1's in 4Q (in-line w/ what I was expecting) and has flushed out MP1 backlog. We also saw slight sequential GM improvement to 12% Q1 energy GM's going to EXPLODE" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1618362186505781250) 2023-01-25T21:36Z 22K followers, 24.8K engagements "Elon is guiding/operating under the assumption of a severe recession. Hes said it many times. What happens if we dont get this severe recession Margins surprise deliveries 2m Megapack profit explodes fsd adoption surges risk appetite shifts to mega cap growth $500 π«£" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1618450633362923521) 2023-01-26T03:27Z 22K followers, 39.7K engagements "TSLA Energy in [--] points β Replacement demand fossil fuels -- solar/wind β Wall St. ignoring Energy growth/margins in estimates. Energy storage a nascent investable theme β New Lathrop factory 10K units per year ramped 3Q'23 β Industry demand capacity = pricing power" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1618975198027591680) 2023-01-27T14:12Z 22K followers, 169.3K engagements "Just wait till ARKK starts hyping TSLA Megapacks. It'll be robo-taxi on steroids" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1618998186974261249) 2023-01-27T15:43Z 22K followers, 14.8K engagements "3/1 TSLA Investor Day. TSLA will take the Energy cat out of the bag. Word will spread like wildfire. Morgan Stanley is modeling [--] GWh by [----]. Let that sink in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1619061935177363456) 2023-01-27T19:57Z 22K followers, 40K engagements "Arevon - Tesla MPs #1 biggest customer - secured a $400M loan for its [--] GW solar pipeline. I expect more Megapack deals to be announced with Arevon. Tesla has [--] GWh/2MW of arevon biz coming online in q1/2. https://www.energy-storage.news/arevon-secures-us400-million-for-solar-and-storage-projects-across-us/ https://www.energy-storage.news/arevon-secures-us400-million-for-solar-and-storage-projects-across-us/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1620252277260025858) 2023-01-31T02:47Z 22K followers, 55.7K engagements "Based on TSLA Energy inventory breakout in the 10K for the first time I think it's fair to conclude that Megapack is ramping.πππππ" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1620473129230532609) 2023-01-31T17:24Z 22K followers, 49.9K engagements "Tesla is selling water in the desert with Megapack. Pre IRA the payback period on a solar + storage project for a utility/IPP was 8-10 YEARS. Nobody wanted to commit capex and do storage projects. IRA in play Jan [--] [----] changed the game" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1620915212193775620) 2023-02-01T22:41Z 22K followers, 28.6K engagements "FYI I dumped 50% of my TSLA [----] leap position for 300% return. Looking for a pullback to buy back what I sold. This is a tactical move. I could be wrong. But $198-ish feels top heavy to me" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1621553896370966531) 2023-02-03T16:59Z 22K followers, 67.8K engagements "Omg. Megapack video says CAN produce [--] every [--] mins. Thats [----] run rate right now = 21/day = [--] GWh This video gave me goosebumps. Shit I might have to buy back my calls now. This video gave me goosebumps. Shit I might have to buy back my calls now" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1621601233705263108) 2023-02-03T20:07Z 22K followers, 73.2K engagements "Ive watched this video [--] times in the past [--] hours. I have separation anxiety from the calls I sold earlier. Megapack tsunami is coming. Have a nice weekend. Megapack Factory https://t.co/Ffw3KcxoGf Megapack Factory https://t.co/Ffw3KcxoGf" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1621672943058141184) 2023-02-04T00:52Z 22K followers, 48.7K engagements "I predict TSLA will announce a $10B share repurchase authorization on 3/1 at investor day" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1623145366588731392) 2023-02-08T02:23Z 22K followers, 115.6K engagements "Announced [--] hour ago: TSLA wins [--] GWh Megapack business to be installed by [----]. [--] GWh appears to be the average project size for TSLA. Equates to [---] MP's = $550M revenue quietly flying under the radar. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/02/10/2606146/0/en/NRStor-and-Partners-Execute-Major-Agreements-for-1000-MWh-Oneida-Energy-Storage-Project.html https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/02/10/2606146/0/en/NRStor-and-Partners-Execute-Major-Agreements-for-1000-MWh-Oneida-Energy-Storage-Project.html" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1624120946675023873) 2023-02-10T18:59Z 22K followers, 36.4K engagements "Ive got a lot more investment ideas/trades if people want me to share them $TSLA $EOSE π³π₯all based on fundamentals. No charts" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1626664971051433984) 2023-02-17T19:28Z 22K followers, 30.3K engagements "TSLA Investor Day: - No new product launches - White covers on all the new cars - White covers on new energy products - No buyback - Not much on Megapack - Nothing on forward financial targets - Typos in presentation slides - Elon sounds drunk/confused - FSD was too technical" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1631091654860894208) 2023-03-02T00:38Z 22K followers, 55K engagements "$TSLA if Tesla puts up 475K Q1 delivery # and puts up a 20% energy gross margin quarter with strong sequential deployment growth. π $250-$275 Imo" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1636422183864942602) 2023-03-16T17:40Z 22K followers, 54.7K engagements "$TSLA I am leveraged long into Q1. I believe Q1 deliveries beat expectations and set the tone for the remainder of the year. I also believe margins will be better than feared. Energy should pick up steam in Q1 and will begin to control the narrative beginning in Q2 and beyond" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1641231528561704962) 2023-03-30T00:11Z 22K followers, 25.6K engagements "$TSLA just wait till the market gets hit in the face with 50% Megapack margins at scale. Its coming. And nobody talking" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1642996578603466755) 2023-04-03T21:04Z 22K followers, 37.9K engagements "$TSLA doesnt take a genius to figure out what 80+ GWh of megapack capacity translates to earnings power in [----] oh wait Tesla Energy is still an afterthought on Wall St. π [----] calls πͺπΌπ₯π° Official confirmation: Tesla China's Megafactory has a production capacity of [--] GWh/year construction will start in Q3 in [----] and production will start in Q3 in [----]. https://t.co/nYae2CpZaE Official confirmation: Tesla China's Megafactory has a production capacity of [--] GWh/year construction will start in Q3 in [----] and production will start in Q3 in [----]. https://t.co/nYae2CpZaE" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1645016299884380161) 2023-04-09T10:50Z 22K followers, 61.4K engagements "$TSLA I lost ALOT of faith in Elon and management after that horrid earnings call. That could have been the worst Tesla call Ive ever listened to. Nobody is equipped to answer basic financial questions. I feel like they arent being truthful. Price elasticity is a fantasy" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1648862927129042945) 2023-04-20T01:35Z 22K followers, 47.2K engagements "$EOSE I'm going to reach out to the company to see if they would be interested in doing a twitter space hosted by me. Like this if you would tune in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1662433929402384384) 2023-05-27T12:21Z 22K followers, 12.3K engagements "Who wants to know my next investment idea π" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1673699665584308226) 2023-06-27T14:27Z 22K followers, 34.2K engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@Zerosumgame33 0SG0SG posts on X about $clmt, tesla, $tsla, business the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence stocks 58.18% automotive brands 56.36% finance 25.45% technology brands 6.36% social networks 5.45% celebrities 5.45% cryptocurrencies 1.82% products 0.91%
Social topic influence $clmt #1, tesla 17.27%, $tsla 14.55%, business 7.27%, out of 5.45%, this is 4.55%, mega 4.55%, tech 3.64%, ttm 3.64%, wall street 3.64%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @bullstkpicks @elonmusk @netmelc @dmottco @oilandgibbs @beentherecap @wholemars @wr4nygov @jpsartrenoexit @gordonjohnson19 @freebirdsteven @biofuelslaw @mymorristribe @billstolze @chrisstets @arbsensei @ratsensei1
Top assets mentioned Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) DAR Open Network (DAR) Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Inverse Finance (INV) Lazard Ltd. Class A (LAZ) Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"$CLMT at a minimum the stock should be trading @ $35/share today to reflect the $2.25B private mark MRL got from the Warburg transaction in [----] prior to 1) MRL's commissioning 2) DOE Loan 3) SAF contracts 4) good RVO"
X Link 2026-02-13T14:44Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT Manav Gupta @ UBS upgrades Calumet to $26. He caved. π€‘ $CLMT On today's episode of "Calumet's Sell-Side Analysts SUCK" The infamaous Manav Gupta over @ UBS with $13.25 $CLMT price target acknowledges the positive inflection in Renewable Diesel on the recent $VLO earnings call but fails to so much as write a new note on $CLMT after https://t.co/9r2Rdex55h $CLMT On today's episode of "Calumet's Sell-Side Analysts SUCK" The infamaous Manav Gupta over @ UBS with $13.25 $CLMT price target acknowledges the positive inflection in Renewable Diesel on the recent $VLO earnings call but fails to"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:05Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"Seeing alot of smart ppl in my feed talking about the $INV vehicle & allegedly huge discount to NAV. R/R seems pretty damn compelling if Accelsius actually converts this $1B pipeline. I might do some real work on this. Seems like a ZSG special. [--] bagger [--] questions w/o doing any work: 1) Dilution 2) Mgmt comp 3) Mgmt track record I know $PCT was an exit https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022725655851319752 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022725655851319752"
X Link 2026-02-14T17:32Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"Just going thru some of my older work (not posted on X). $LMB was probably the juiciest idea I was ever involved in. I wrote it up for VIC when it was $6 and it topped out at $150 gulp. I've noticed a trend over the years that company's (preferably small ones) with contractual backlogs turn out to be absolutely monstrous stocks. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022051223533183195 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022051223533183195"
X Link 2026-02-12T20:52Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT π€‘π€‘π€‘π€‘ I am at a loss for words. This clown Manav Gupta is Neutral because "Calumet has still not instituted a dividend and near-term FCF generation is limited" No shit theres no f*cking dividend Manav this is a de-leveraging story $CLMT Manav Gupta @ UBS upgrades Calumet to $26. He caved. π€‘ $CLMT Manav Gupta @ UBS upgrades Calumet to $26. He caved. π€‘"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:22Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"Decent start to the year +70%. Highly concentrated book"
X Link 2026-02-15T02:01Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT Market DOES NOT understand the technology MRL has licensed to make SAF. This is a slide from MRL's SAF licensor Topsoe and its Hydroflex tech that was presented last month. MRL's process is recycling low-value off-gasses and naphta byproducts from its renewable diesel production as HYDROGEN FEEDSTOCK for the production of SAF. The result of internally recyclying this green hydrogen 1) single-digit SAF carbon intensity scores which result in HUGE LCFS credits 2) Hydrogen feedstock savings 3) 90% SAF yields. The market is absolutely clueless on how incredibly profitable MRL-specific SAF"
X Link 2025-12-02T16:00Z 21.9K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT $DAR & $NTOIY - best SAF/RD comps for MRL now trading 9.2x forward EBITDA. Implied MRL within $CLMT @ $22/share is valued @ 4.5x EBITDA & 29% levered FCF yield @ $1.50 RD margin https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016891133972885844 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016891133972885844"
X Link 2026-01-29T15:08Z 21.9K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT From $VLO's earnings call today: "There's a good chance D4 RINs are going to go UP" Gluck [--] da CLMT shorts https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016951712813039759 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016951712813039759"
X Link 2026-01-29T19:08Z 21.9K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT π¨Part 2: Trying not to fall off my chair. Goldman's MRL earnings build up in their model underpinning their $24 PT assumes 56% capture of a.drum roll please.$0.29/gallon Renewable Diesel Index Margin built off a $1/gal D4 RIN. I swear you cant make this shit up. @OilandGibbs . you have some work to do to educate Goldman on how this works. $CLMT HAHAHA Alright I got my hands on the new $CLMT Goldman model. 1st year analyst @ GS responsible for his $24 PT. 1) EXCLUDES APPROXIMATELY $100 MILLION DOLLARS OF 45Z PTC CREDITS IN HIS FREE CASH FLOW NUMBER 2) INCLUDES $40M DOE NON-CASH INTEREST"
X Link 2026-01-30T17:31Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT safe haven"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:31Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT dont forget that MRL's decision to purchase the 2nd reactor was a result of strategic investor interest as part of the prior MRL sale process w/ Lazard which failed to materialize prior to the 2023-2025 RVO blunder. With 2026-2027 RVO upon us [--] days away will create a massive appetite for MRL. MaxSAF150 + 2nd Reactor @ $1.50-$1.75 RD = $60-$70 per share. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019781912961700116 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019781912961700116"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:35Z 21.9K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT Consensus [----] EBITDA across [--] sell side estimates is $444M. The base business is doing $325-$350M EBITDA @ mid-cycle crack spreads The street doesn't think MRL will clear $100M next year. I think MRL will be on a $300M EBITDA run rate in Q3 of this year. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019855970026025359 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019855970026025359"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:29Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT Two best comps $DAR & $NTOIY now trade @ 9.4% and 7.7% levered FCF yields on [----] consensus estimates. 9% FCF yield on $CLMT's [----] FCF is a $50 stock. Layer in MRL's 2nd reactor that can add another $100M+ FCF and $CLMT is a $70 stock. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020885582541455484 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020885582541455484"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:40Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT If you want conviction look no further: This is a chart of Biodiesel Operating Margin per gallon dating back to [----] compiled weekly by Iowa State University. Pre [----] RVO cycle Biodiesel was typically making $0.25/gal PROFIT over a [--] year cycle. Renewable Diesel margin would be well over $2/gal with a return back to Biodiesel making $0.25/gal profit & MRL would be doing $500M EBITDA. Data link: https://www.card.iastate.edu/tools/operating-margins/b=biodiesel $CLMT The fact that RINs have surged here in Q1 despite Biodiesel margins still [--] cents underwater is outrageously bullish for"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:53Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"I have $8 lots from last April when the infamous Manav Gupta @ the bucket shop over at UBS downgraded the stock on . drum roll please. $1 Blenders tax credit permanently eroding margins into perpetutity. Surprised hes still allowed to opine on the space after that one. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022031649261633829 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022031649261633829"
X Link 2026-02-12T19:34Z 22K followers, [---] engagements
"@BeenThereCap UBS is now at $475M EBITDA in [----]. I'm at $750M w/ the 2nd reactor"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:40Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT This $DAR earnings call is encouraging.mgmt 1) bullish RD 2) very bullish US SAF pricing/volume & SAFc credits w/ tech companies 3) bullish RVO/RINs"
X Link 2026-02-12T14:57Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT I have Manav's new Calumet model. He is modeling $47M EBITDA @ MRL in [----] and $184M EBITDA @ MRL in [----] that underpin his $26 Price Target. With the 2nd reactor stood up & $1.75 RD margin I'm closer to $450M MRL EBITDA in [----] π€‘π€‘π€‘ $CLMT Manav Gupta @ UBS upgrades Calumet to $26. He caved. π€‘ $CLMT Manav Gupta @ UBS upgrades Calumet to $26. He caved. π€‘"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:32Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT $50 by 2H [----]. Pinned"
X Link 2025-03-17T15:30Z 22K followers, 12.4K engagements
"$CLMT On today's episode of "Calumet's Sell-Side Analysts SUCK" The infamaous Manav Gupta over @ UBS with $13.25 $CLMT price target acknowledges the positive inflection in Renewable Diesel on the recent $VLO earnings call but fails to so much as write a new note on $CLMT after its Jan 9th conference or revise PT after their Q4 pre-release. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019054222981894435 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019054222981894435"
X Link 2026-02-04T14:23Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT Critically important to understand that no sell-side analyst (UBS Goldman TD BofA) is modeling MRL's SAF earnings. I have all their updated models. MRL's SAF pricing is a fixed premium to spot renewable diesel. the street does not understand this (still). For example here is a snapshot of how Manav Gupta over @ UBS is projecting his new $475M EBITDA at $CLMT in [----]. NO SAF just Renewable Diesel Where the F*ck is the SAF And why is corporate $138M drag when today is $80M The combination of no SAF earnings + wrong corporate overhead is $200M EBITDA thats completely missing. As MRL brings"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:58Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"@Bullstkpicks Appreciate the thoughts. 1) where is the tech on its s-curve (#1 to figure out) 2) are there other similar tech offerings by larger players in the mkt or is Accelsius novel Customer switching costs 3) what was the implied mark on the asset after the recent $25M raise"
X Link 2026-02-14T18:00Z 22K followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks v interesting. So w/ $INV stock @ $3/sh. fair to say mkt is ascribing Accelsius value back to shareholders at the last private mark that $3.40 print is @ $INV's 40% ownership How do u think these guys ultimately crystalize Acceslsius value if ur right on pipeline conversion Is this a sale to PE IPO How do we ultimately get paid b/c discount to NAV will always exist. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022739721030414378 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022739721030414378"
X Link 2026-02-14T18:28Z 22K followers, [---] engagements
"In my spare time I like to build things to distract from my stock picking endeavors. I wanted a new hobby so about a year ago I bought myself basic tools (Miter saw most importantly) and started YouTubing. I am not anywhere close to a pro carpenter but Im proud of this Highly therapeutic. YouTube and Facebook reels have taught me a lot and its all free"
X Link 2026-02-15T13:05Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT Has already pre-released Q4 earnings but reports on 2/27. Per the pre-release MRL indicated break-even in Q4 which makes sense considering RD index margin was $0.72/gal based on average Soybean Oil LA Carb Diesel CA LCFS & D4 RIN prices. This indicates that MRL captured the RD index less $0.50/gal of site opex + SG&A and after $0.23/gal of feedstock transportation. Critically important to understand that the SAF premium at currently contracted 30Mgpy with Shell 1:1 offsets the feedstock transportation & naphta byproduct losses hence why the SAF premium has been "invisible" in MRL's"
X Link 2026-02-15T22:05Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT the plan:"
X Link 2026-02-06T02:24Z 21.9K followers, [----] engagements
"$CLMT & Dont forget. per the last earnings call MRL already has a customer ready to take the 2nd reactor capacity. $CLMT dont forget that MRL's decision to purchase the 2nd reactor was a result of strategic investor interest as part of the prior MRL sale process w/ Lazard which failed to materialize prior to the 2023-2025 RVO blunder. With 2026-2027 RVO upon us [--] days away will create a https://t.co/DzfjlC4T8Q $CLMT dont forget that MRL's decision to purchase the 2nd reactor was a result of strategic investor interest as part of the prior MRL sale process w/ Lazard which failed to"
X Link 2026-02-06T14:51Z 21.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Critical observation: TSLA's Megapacks have extreme pricing power. Megapack XL coming out of Lathrop commands an 80% premium to #2 US competitor Fluence (FLNC). on ASP per MWh charged to customer. FLNC caters to utility-scale customers but average order size based on. 1/ Lets face it most TSLA investors are involved in the stock for the growth of the EV business/EV adoption/Replacement demand opportunity as ICE/gas vehicle demand withers to zero. Most if not all investors are IGNORING the significance of TSLAs Lathrop factory. 1/ Lets face it most TSLA investors are involved in the stock for"
X Link 2022-12-31T20:13Z 22K followers, 98.6K engagements
"Dont forget the market has priced Tesla energy as a $0. [----] will surprise. Megapack gross profit is 70x that of one EV. None of this is priced in or being discussed by the street. Analysts are too distracted trying to GUESS on quarterly delivery numbers. Big picture"
X Link 2023-01-02T20:04Z 22K followers, 34.3K engagements
"πTSLA missed by 3% in a q where 40% of their customer base was faced with buying now vs. buying later with $7.5k tax credit (15% of ASP) avail Jan [--]. The IRA created a major material timing issue for buyers. If a company ever deserves a pass its now. Bears too excited"
X Link 2023-01-02T22:52Z 22K followers, 34.5K engagements
"I dont know what I said but two weeks ago I had [--] followers and now I have 5K. I guess some people are reading my shit π€·πΌ just trying to make $$"
X Link 2023-01-06T02:53Z 22K followers, 91.5K engagements
"π«’ Hold up.If TSLA can produce $3 of EPS out of one [--] GWH factory and their [----] goal is [----] GWH (68% CAGR) and there is infinite demand for battery storage $3 x (1500/40) = $112.50 x [--] / 15% cost of capital disc. [--] years is $1057 per share just for Megapacks. Gulp.π"
X Link 2023-01-09T16:52Z 22K followers, 67.7K engagements
"How will the market re-rate TSLA stock when it soon discovers 50% of [----] EPS will come from a RECESSION PROOF business with extreme pricing power fat margins overwhelming production capacity share& software contracts I would be deathly afraid to be short the stock here. π«£"
X Link 2023-01-09T19:20Z 22K followers, 39.3K engagements
"@wholemars Omar Megapacks are the single greatest opportunity I've seen in my experience in public equity investing particularly relative to TSLA's current market cap. I'm willing to die on the sword"
X Link 2023-01-12T18:19Z 22K followers, 30.1K engagements
"Ive spent 3-5 hours a day for the past [--] weeks researching the ins and outs of the TSLA Energy/Megapack story (Ive probably shared 1/3 of my work/thoughts on Twitter) it parallels AMZN/AWS circa 2018/19 which led to the AMZN price explosion"
X Link 2023-01-13T20:54Z 22K followers, 115.9K engagements
"Megapack model. Im at $4.50 EPS in [----] from [--] GWh of production. 25x is $116 per share. https://t.co/DOLcehtmYg https://t.co/DOLcehtmYg"
X Link 2023-01-14T13:33Z 22K followers, 45.7K engagements
"My wife and I went out for dinner tonight. We talked a lot about Megapack economics. She gets it.π€£"
X Link 2023-01-16T02:49Z 22K followers, 37.2K engagements
"πBig boys are buying TSLA in the dark pools"
X Link 2023-01-23T18:09Z 22K followers, 111.7K engagements
"Ohhhh nothing much to see here folks. Except for the #1 raw material in TSLA Megapacks - Lithium Carbonate 99.5% - down 20% off its peak in [--] months. MEGA MARGINS"
X Link 2023-01-23T20:09Z 22K followers, 27.6K engagements
"Shorting TSLA in the $300-$350's given the macro backdrop sorta made sense. Shorting TSLA in the low $100's makes no sense. Whoever is shorting TSLA at these levels thinks earnings are permanently impaired"
X Link 2023-01-24T17:46Z 22K followers, 23.8K engagements
"@WR4NYGov @JPSartre_NoExit This proves youre out sniffing for controversy just to get followers and eyeballs to your YouTube channel. Im not engaging"
X Link 2023-01-26T10:53Z 22K followers, 13.4K engagements
"Think this move in Tesla off the low is huge Just wait till the market soon realizes the energy biz is much better margins and much bigger TAM and recession proof and the government is giving out 50% coupons to buyers. π«£π«£π«£π«£π€"
X Link 2023-01-27T17:15Z 22K followers, 34.5K engagements
"$TSLA if we break $190 brings $240 real quick & sets up for the $260 gap fill"
X Link 2023-02-02T13:14Z 22K followers, 54.5K engagements
"@GordonJohnson19 This is the first sensible thing Ive seen you tweet since I discovered your existence"
X Link 2023-03-13T00:59Z 22K followers, [----] engagements
"1/.As of TTM ending 3Q22 TSLAs Energy business (5% of total TSLA revenue) has generated an underwhelming gross profit of ZERO. Many analysts on Wall St. overlook its potential- rightfully so given its sub-scale operation yielding very poor unit economics thus being"
X Link 2022-12-18T21:29Z 22K followers, 1.1M engagements
"3/.next-gen Megapack XLs (hereinafter referred to MPs) in the Lathrop CA. mega factory which broke ground last September and within a years time has just become fully operational. Prior to Lathrop TSLA produced smaller format MPs in Nevada these are being phased"
X Link 2022-12-18T21:29Z 22K followers, 26.6K engagements
"4/.out now. Lathrop began pumping out larger format MPs in Late Sept/early Oct at the tail end of 3Q22 which failed to materialize into 3Q earnings. 4Q is set up for material earnings from Lathrop and will 100% flow thru to TSLAs earnings by 1Q23"
X Link 2022-12-18T21:29Z 22K followers, 25.2K engagements
"5/.By year-end [----] TSLA will have deployed [--] GwH of capacity equivalent to an 8x increase in GwH deployments over the TTM period ending 3Q22 with upwards of $16B in gross profit contribution generated by TSLA existing and unconstrained 16K current MP backlog at Lathrop"
X Link 2022-12-18T21:29Z 22K followers, 24.3K engagements
"7/.According to insiders familiar with the Lathrop ramp at the end of October TSLA had gone from pre-production/tooling/commissioning to ramping production capacity to [--] MP's per day at Lathrop all in the span of [--] to [--] weeks According to TSLAs MP configurator the"
X Link 2022-12-18T21:29Z 22K followers, 21.6K engagements
"8/.earliest delivery date is 3Q24. At [--] MPs prod. per day todays backlog is worth 16K MPs compared to current max capacity at Lathrop of 10k MPs at max capacity of [--] GwH. In other words there's about [---] years of backlog with de minimis bottleneck supply constraints"
X Link 2022-12-18T21:29Z 22K followers, 24.7K engagements
"$TSLA Everyone crying for a $10B buyback should shift their focus to crying for more Megapack factories. It cost TSLA $200M to open/buy the Lathrop CA. factory with a [--] month ramp-up. Breakeven unit is [---] Megapacks which at current production rates they can make in [--] days. 1/.As of TTM ending 3Q22 TSLAs Energy business (5% of total TSLA revenue) has generated an underwhelming gross profit of ZERO. Many analysts on Wall St. overlook its potential- rightfully so given its sub-scale operation yielding very poor unit economics thus being. 1/.As of TTM ending 3Q22 TSLAs Energy business (5% of"
X Link 2022-12-20T05:12Z 22K followers, 53.3K engagements
"At $140/sh. with a fully diluted market cap of $485B $TSLA is trading for 20x the NET CASH on its balance sheet as of 4Q"
X Link 2022-12-20T17:52Z 22K followers, 54.8K engagements
"$TSLA Bear raid margin calls fund liquidations put gamma squeeze EoY tax loss selling ESG funds dumping you name it. There is nothing fundamental about this move to $140"
X Link 2022-12-20T20:27Z 22K followers, 42.4K engagements
"1/In Sept. [--] TSLA won a massive Megapack supply agreement of [--] GwH from a big renewables co. named Arevon. At the time of the win TSLA didnt have enough capacity to fullfill the project So TDLA decided to build [--] GwH at Lathrop. 1/.As of TTM ending 3Q22 TSLAs Energy business (5% of total TSLA revenue) has generated an underwhelming gross profit of ZERO. Many analysts on Wall St. overlook its potential- rightfully so given its sub-scale operation yielding very poor unit economics thus being. 1/.As of TTM ending 3Q22 TSLAs Energy business (5% of total TSLA revenue) has generated an"
X Link 2022-12-22T03:28Z 22K followers, 164.8K engagements
"@elonmusk You need to hire new coders bro. Anyone can right-click on the Megapack ordering page on the Tesla website pull up the Devtools page and search in the scripts for your Megapack XL gross margins to the penny that feed into the pricing formula.πππππ€£π€£π€£"
X Link 2022-12-23T00:46Z 22K followers, 106.6K engagements
"1/Here is my updated $TSLA Energy model based on the earnings power potential out of Lathrop producing Megapack XL (4-hour duration/3.92 MwH) using the exacty cost of goods (fixed/variable) per my web scraping of the front-end of the Megapack order configurator"
X Link 2022-12-24T17:44Z 22K followers, 120.2K engagements
"10/ After reasonable opex and 15% tax I estimate TSLA will earn $3/share in EPS from selling Megapacks out of Lathrop in [----]. At 30x (comp NEE trades at 27x) Lathrop at full capacity is conservatively worth $90 per TSLA share or of today's abysmal TSLA share price today"
X Link 2022-12-24T17:44Z 22K followers, 142.1K engagements
"Why is Tesla energy ignored and why does the opportunity exist 1) TSLA covered strictly by auto analysts 2) historically no gross profit given sub-scale (Pre-Lathrop) 3) TSLA has mentioned the word Megapack on earnings calls only [--] times over the past 2+ years"
X Link 2022-12-28T21:27Z 22K followers, 93.7K engagements
"How does the stock react when in the next quarter or two the market realizes Lathrop will provide Tesla a recession-proof earnings stream selling a mission critical system financed by tax credits to utilities that dampens the cyclicality of autos πππ"
X Link 2022-12-28T23:54Z 22K followers, 31.2K engagements
"Over the next 6-12 months as $TSLA gains traction in FSD Energy Insurance AI the market will be forced to value the company on a sum of the parts basis rather than purely on cyclical auto earnings. Thats the playbook that gets us $1T market cap"
X Link 2022-12-29T14:10Z 22K followers, 20K engagements
"Edit: I wouldnt be obsessing over Megapacks as much if 20+ Wall Street analysts covering Tesla werent ignoring it so badly. Consensus for Energy is $2B in gross profit by [----]. They might do $10B at Lathrop alone next year and into [--]. βWhen you CRUSH market expectations"
X Link 2022-12-30T03:51Z 22K followers, 40.1K engagements
"Everyone panicking about Tesla missing numbers have never experienced a relief rally before. Buy-side Expectations were horrific going into the q the street # doesnt matter. We had a 50% drawdown in a matter of wiz - that rarely happens in mega cap tech. My bet is green Tom"
X Link 2023-01-02T17:33Z 22K followers, 97.1K engagements
"Update on the Megapack order configurator. Earliest delivery date is now 4Q'24 vs. 3Q'24 last week. Backlog growing"
X Link 2023-01-03T17:03Z 22K followers, 36.8K engagements
"Megapack https://electrek.co/2023/01/03/neoen-announces-tesla-megapack-project/ https://electrek.co/2023/01/03/neoen-announces-tesla-megapack-project/"
X Link 2023-01-03T17:15Z 22K followers, 46.5K engagements
"Tweeting this again because it is likely THE BEGINNING of the Megapack hysteria soon to come. The market still IGNORING. There is [----] MW of BOOKED Megapack business Tesla will be BRINGING ONLINE and PAID by 2Q [----]. Equivalent to [----] total Megapacks. 1/In Sept. [--] TSLA won a massive Megapack supply agreement of [--] GwH from a big renewables co. named Arevon. At the time of the win TSLA didnt have enough capacity to fullfill the project So TDLA decided to build [--] GwH at Lathrop. https://t.co/HAobwCuX6x 1/In Sept. [--] TSLA won a massive Megapack supply agreement of [--] GwH from a big renewables"
X Link 2023-01-04T18:52Z 22K followers, 71.6K engagements
"$TSLA Wall streets [----] EPS range is $3.77 to $7.97 π Im at $9 inclusive of cuts to EV ASP. I think Megapacks are destined to surprise"
X Link 2023-01-06T00:31Z 22K followers, 30.4K engagements
"Im currently working on a thread defending my views that 50% Megapack margins are factual sustainable defensible and durable. π excited to share. $TSLA"
X Link 2023-01-06T23:49Z 22K followers, 199.7K engagements
"1/ I believe TSLAs 50%+ hardware margins for Megapack are sustainable defensible and durable. 50% hardware margins come straight from web-scraping Teslas order configurator from Margins are a function of drivers of price and cost. http://Tesla.com Im currently working on a thread defending my views that 50% Megapack margins are factual sustainable defensible and durable. π excited to share. $TSLA http://Tesla.com Im currently working on a thread defending my views that 50% Megapack margins are factual sustainable defensible and durable. π excited to share. $TSLA"
X Link 2023-01-07T04:35Z 22K followers, 424.7K engagements
"1/Surprised NOBODY is talking about this CATL news.TSLA will now have zero issue sourcing battery cells from CATL for 10K Megapacks going forward as CATL very recently expanded into the upstream part of the Lithium Carbonate (LCE) supply chain the key raw material that. 1/ I believe TSLAs 50%+ hardware margins for Megapack are sustainable defensible and durable. 50% hardware margins come straight from web-scraping Teslas order configurator from https://t.co/lrCLbHPj2I. Margins are a function of drivers of price and cost. 1/ I believe TSLAs 50%+ hardware margins for Megapack are sustainable"
X Link 2023-01-08T16:44Z 22K followers, 97.6K engagements
"REAL MONEY is made when you can identify with conviction the street is wrong/low. The street is RARELY wrong. Mega cap companies are WELL COVERED. Tesla energy - Megapacks - is a diamond in the rough that will create millionaires"
X Link 2023-01-12T02:29Z 22K followers, 24.6K engagements
"Advice: Ignore anyone talking "price targets". Real experienced savvy investors do not talk this way. "Price targets" are fictitious sell-side/wall street verbiages to keep the research commission checks flowing"
X Link 2023-01-14T00:49Z 22K followers, 34.6K engagements
"Is Megapack XL the Apple Iphone of Energy Storage Take a lookππ.I dug into competitors hardware data specs contract terms and warranty provisions to determine Megapack XL is superior to most alternatives. Its fair to conclude CATL has a somewhat comparable storage offering"
X Link 2023-01-15T03:59Z 22K followers, 148.6K engagements
"TSLA Megapack is eerily similar to AMZN AWS. Look what happened in Q1 [----] when AMZN broke-out AWS in its financial statements. The rest was history. AWS Cloud Storage = Megapack Energy Storage"
X Link 2023-01-15T04:59Z 22K followers, 40K engagements
"Bravo π€ great Megapack thread by the Cat. I repeat: LATHROP MEGAPACK RAMP IS NOT IN WALL STREET NUMBERS/EXPECTATIONS. π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨ 1/Megapack has been generating a lot of noise in the community lately. There has been a ton of great info shared by @Zerosumgame33 on most every aspect of the Megapack business. At first glance the numbers seem too good to be true. How can Megapack be this disruptive 1/Megapack has been generating a lot of noise in the community lately. There has been a ton of great info shared by @Zerosumgame33 on most every aspect of the Megapack business. At first glance the"
X Link 2023-01-15T15:32Z 22K followers, 24.8K engagements
"Elons Twitter drama coupled with Fed over-tightening post-pandemic are two black swan gifts to non-TSLA shareholders who want in and current TSLA shareholders who want more"
X Link 2023-01-15T18:54Z 22K followers, 24.7K engagements
"πTSLA Lathrop now on-line leapfrogs them ahead of the energy storage pack. (BESS only not battery cell mfg.)"
X Link 2023-01-15T21:45Z 22K followers, 45.1K engagements
"Mic Drop. Sound the ALARM. π’π’π’π’π’π’π’ Is TSLA soliciting companies located in 1) high fire threat districts in 2) low income/disadvantaged communities offering them to deliver/install Megapacks for FREE To capitalize on INSANELY LUCRATIVE state incentives like"
X Link 2023-01-16T20:46Z 22K followers, 87.4K engagements
"TSLA virtual power plant (VPP) appears to be scaling another potential sleeping giant in TSLAs energy complex being ignored/not valued. https://electrek.co/2022/09/02/tesla-virtual-power-plant-growing/ https://electrek.co/2022/09/02/tesla-virtual-power-plant-growing/"
X Link 2023-01-17T01:35Z 22K followers, 39K engagements
"Why did Elon say Q4 would be epic Strange the only real catalyst that supports such boldness is Lathrop production coming online. Im not saying this is my base case but if the [--] per day figure is true could Q4 show an 8-10 GWh deployment I wonderπ§"
X Link 2023-01-18T20:40Z 22K followers, 64.3K engagements
"My conviction on TSLA Megapacks just quadrupled. When the biggest TSLA bear on the street doesnt know the GWh capacity of Lathrop - and therefore hasnt crunched the numbers on earnings power - you know the opportunity is rather significant. The Astonishing Economics of the Tesla Megapack Its come to my attention that the $TSLA Faithful are beginning a new bull narrative(FSD and robots are so 2021-22) based on Megapack utility-scale battery storage. See this breathless article below: https://t.co/oyDFCmdoH1 The Astonishing Economics of the Tesla Megapack Its come to my attention that the $TSLA"
X Link 2023-01-18T22:14Z 22K followers, 106.2K engagements
"π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨ Further evidence of 50% Megapack margins - a full blown analysis wall street has missed. π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨π¨ Conclusions: β
TSLA did not sell any Megapack XLs out of Lathrop in 3Q herein referred to as MP2"
X Link 2023-01-22T02:20Z 22K followers, 231.8K engagements
"TSLA $400 by 1/1/24 Calls go $4 -- $50 I would not sell there either. TSLA Energy being ignored. TSLA Energy will surpass TSLA EV"
X Link 2023-01-23T17:51Z 22K followers, 38.9K engagements
"TSLA Lathrop is going to SHOCK all the auto analysts in [----]. A tsunami of MP2's is coming and wall street is in the eye of the storm"
X Link 2023-01-24T16:04Z 22K followers, 27.5K engagements
"How many times do I have to reiterate that megapack is a 2023/2024 play and not q4 [----] The more I see this shit the less I wanna post my thoughts. @Zerosumgame33 I hope you are correct but you're going to have a major reckoning after this investor call tomorrow. You've been throwing out pretty lofty numbers and I'm sure they're going to address megapack. If you're right that's great but if not you've been throwing out a ton of HYPE @Zerosumgame33 I hope you are correct but you're going to have a major reckoning after this investor call tomorrow. You've been throwing out pretty lofty numbers"
X Link 2023-01-24T22:18Z 22K followers, 31.5K engagements
"My only motive in this operation was to help. With the stock down 70% from ATH I was hoping some helpless shareholder(s) would read a different perspective on what to be excited for in the near term instead of realizing losses in his/her retirement account. Im not here to pump"
X Link 2023-01-24T22:23Z 22K followers, 10.1K engagements
"Holy crap. why is this not getting more attention 4680's going into stationary storage FF [--] Min. Gulp.π @Zerosumgame33 @elonmusk https://t.co/Y6eNPRyRWm Tesla just posted this a few hours ago @Zerosumgame33 @elonmusk https://t.co/Y6eNPRyRWm Tesla just posted this a few hours ago"
X Link 2023-01-25T15:53Z 22K followers, 65K engagements
"IMO TSLA either going to $115-$120 or $165 tomorrow. Buckle up. Adding to my position $110"
X Link 2023-01-25T17:50Z 22K followers, 43.6K engagements
"I need to go thru the 4Q numbers. but the thing that stands out the most FOR me Based on my math TSLA sold [---] MP1's in 4Q (in-line w/ what I was expecting) and has flushed out MP1 backlog. We also saw slight sequential GM improvement to 12% Q1 energy GM's going to EXPLODE"
X Link 2023-01-25T21:36Z 22K followers, 24.8K engagements
"Elon is guiding/operating under the assumption of a severe recession. Hes said it many times. What happens if we dont get this severe recession Margins surprise deliveries 2m Megapack profit explodes fsd adoption surges risk appetite shifts to mega cap growth $500 π«£"
X Link 2023-01-26T03:27Z 22K followers, 39.7K engagements
"TSLA Energy in [--] points β
Replacement demand fossil fuels -- solar/wind β
Wall St. ignoring Energy growth/margins in estimates. Energy storage a nascent investable theme β
New Lathrop factory 10K units per year ramped 3Q'23 β
Industry demand capacity = pricing power"
X Link 2023-01-27T14:12Z 22K followers, 169.3K engagements
"Just wait till ARKK starts hyping TSLA Megapacks. It'll be robo-taxi on steroids"
X Link 2023-01-27T15:43Z 22K followers, 14.8K engagements
"3/1 TSLA Investor Day. TSLA will take the Energy cat out of the bag. Word will spread like wildfire. Morgan Stanley is modeling [--] GWh by [----]. Let that sink in"
X Link 2023-01-27T19:57Z 22K followers, 40K engagements
"Arevon - Tesla MPs #1 biggest customer - secured a $400M loan for its [--] GW solar pipeline. I expect more Megapack deals to be announced with Arevon. Tesla has [--] GWh/2MW of arevon biz coming online in q1/2. https://www.energy-storage.news/arevon-secures-us400-million-for-solar-and-storage-projects-across-us/ https://www.energy-storage.news/arevon-secures-us400-million-for-solar-and-storage-projects-across-us/"
X Link 2023-01-31T02:47Z 22K followers, 55.7K engagements
"Based on TSLA Energy inventory breakout in the 10K for the first time I think it's fair to conclude that Megapack is ramping.πππππ"
X Link 2023-01-31T17:24Z 22K followers, 49.9K engagements
"Tesla is selling water in the desert with Megapack. Pre IRA the payback period on a solar + storage project for a utility/IPP was 8-10 YEARS. Nobody wanted to commit capex and do storage projects. IRA in play Jan [--] [----] changed the game"
X Link 2023-02-01T22:41Z 22K followers, 28.6K engagements
"FYI I dumped 50% of my TSLA [----] leap position for 300% return. Looking for a pullback to buy back what I sold. This is a tactical move. I could be wrong. But $198-ish feels top heavy to me"
X Link 2023-02-03T16:59Z 22K followers, 67.8K engagements
"Omg. Megapack video says CAN produce [--] every [--] mins. Thats [----] run rate right now = 21/day = [--] GWh This video gave me goosebumps. Shit I might have to buy back my calls now. This video gave me goosebumps. Shit I might have to buy back my calls now"
X Link 2023-02-03T20:07Z 22K followers, 73.2K engagements
"Ive watched this video [--] times in the past [--] hours. I have separation anxiety from the calls I sold earlier. Megapack tsunami is coming. Have a nice weekend. Megapack Factory https://t.co/Ffw3KcxoGf Megapack Factory https://t.co/Ffw3KcxoGf"
X Link 2023-02-04T00:52Z 22K followers, 48.7K engagements
"I predict TSLA will announce a $10B share repurchase authorization on 3/1 at investor day"
X Link 2023-02-08T02:23Z 22K followers, 115.6K engagements
"Announced [--] hour ago: TSLA wins [--] GWh Megapack business to be installed by [----]. [--] GWh appears to be the average project size for TSLA. Equates to [---] MP's = $550M revenue quietly flying under the radar. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/02/10/2606146/0/en/NRStor-and-Partners-Execute-Major-Agreements-for-1000-MWh-Oneida-Energy-Storage-Project.html https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/02/10/2606146/0/en/NRStor-and-Partners-Execute-Major-Agreements-for-1000-MWh-Oneida-Energy-Storage-Project.html"
X Link 2023-02-10T18:59Z 22K followers, 36.4K engagements
"Ive got a lot more investment ideas/trades if people want me to share them $TSLA $EOSE π³π₯all based on fundamentals. No charts"
X Link 2023-02-17T19:28Z 22K followers, 30.3K engagements
"TSLA Investor Day: - No new product launches - White covers on all the new cars - White covers on new energy products - No buyback - Not much on Megapack - Nothing on forward financial targets - Typos in presentation slides - Elon sounds drunk/confused - FSD was too technical"
X Link 2023-03-02T00:38Z 22K followers, 55K engagements
"$TSLA if Tesla puts up 475K Q1 delivery # and puts up a 20% energy gross margin quarter with strong sequential deployment growth. π $250-$275 Imo"
X Link 2023-03-16T17:40Z 22K followers, 54.7K engagements
"$TSLA I am leveraged long into Q1. I believe Q1 deliveries beat expectations and set the tone for the remainder of the year. I also believe margins will be better than feared. Energy should pick up steam in Q1 and will begin to control the narrative beginning in Q2 and beyond"
X Link 2023-03-30T00:11Z 22K followers, 25.6K engagements
"$TSLA just wait till the market gets hit in the face with 50% Megapack margins at scale. Its coming. And nobody talking"
X Link 2023-04-03T21:04Z 22K followers, 37.9K engagements
"$TSLA doesnt take a genius to figure out what 80+ GWh of megapack capacity translates to earnings power in [----] oh wait Tesla Energy is still an afterthought on Wall St. π [----] calls πͺπΌπ₯π° Official confirmation: Tesla China's Megafactory has a production capacity of [--] GWh/year construction will start in Q3 in [----] and production will start in Q3 in [----]. https://t.co/nYae2CpZaE Official confirmation: Tesla China's Megafactory has a production capacity of [--] GWh/year construction will start in Q3 in [----] and production will start in Q3 in [----]. https://t.co/nYae2CpZaE"
X Link 2023-04-09T10:50Z 22K followers, 61.4K engagements
"$TSLA I lost ALOT of faith in Elon and management after that horrid earnings call. That could have been the worst Tesla call Ive ever listened to. Nobody is equipped to answer basic financial questions. I feel like they arent being truthful. Price elasticity is a fantasy"
X Link 2023-04-20T01:35Z 22K followers, 47.2K engagements
"$EOSE I'm going to reach out to the company to see if they would be interested in doing a twitter space hosted by me. Like this if you would tune in"
X Link 2023-05-27T12:21Z 22K followers, 12.3K engagements
"Who wants to know my next investment idea π"
X Link 2023-06-27T14:27Z 22K followers, 34.2K engagements
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/creator/twitter::Zerosumgame33