# ![@W_Igoe Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::821363860603027456.png) @W_Igoe Seattle Biker

Seattle Biker posts on X about gdp, tariffs, money, spx the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::821363860603027456/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::821363860603027456/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [---------] +3,767%
- [--] Month [---------] +473,174%
- [--] Months [---------] +9,419%
- [--] Year [---------] +26,543%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::821363860603027456/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::821363860603027456/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +133%
- [--] Month [--] +188%
- [--] Months [---] +160%
- [--] Year [---] +101%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::821363860603027456/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::821363860603027456/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] -0.93%
- [--] Month [---] +1.30%
- [--] Months [---] no change
- [--] Year [---] +57%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::821363860603027456/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::821363860603027456/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  60% [stocks](/list/stocks)  8% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  6% [countries](/list/countries)  5% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  5% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  4% [currencies](/list/currencies)  3% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  2% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  2% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  1%

**Social topic influence**
[gdp](/topic/gdp) #354, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) 7%, [money](/topic/money) 7%, [spx](/topic/spx) 7%, [$spx](/topic/$spx) 6%, [history](/topic/history) 5%, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) 5%, [balance sheet](/topic/balance-sheet) 5%, [maga](/topic/maga) 4%, [$lmt](/topic/$lmt) #12

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@stlouisfed](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@remembersekhmet](/creator/undefined) [@bricktopnafo](/creator/undefined) [@seahawks](/creator/undefined) [@chicagobears](/creator/undefined) [@dannydayan5](/creator/undefined) [@peterschiff](/creator/undefined) [@billackman](/creator/undefined) [@realdonaldtrump](/creator/undefined) [@usda](/creator/undefined) [@nashvillemusiq](/creator/undefined) [@tivadardanka](/creator/undefined) [@sullycnbc](/creator/undefined) [@iaponomarenko](/creator/undefined) [@davidaxelrod](/creator/undefined) [@kristinoem](/creator/undefined) [@truflation](/creator/undefined) [@paulkrugman](/creator/undefined) [@billclinton](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx) [Limitus (LMT)](/topic/$lmt) [Boeing Co (BA)](/topic/$ba) [IBM (IBM)](/topic/ibm)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Why does an inequality alpha near [--] matter Using a simple Lorenz curve model: L(p) = p Median income share is: (0.5) If = [--] bottom 50% receive 25% of income. If = [--] they receive just 12.5%. The index (Gini) moves gradually but the structure shifts dramatically. When approaches [--] income begins collapsing toward the top at a nonlinear rate. Sometimes the biggest economic changes are geometric. When Gini Alpha approaching [---] you can expect a social revolution. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021947647079469462 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021947647079469462"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2021947647079469462)  2026-02-12T14:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Pretty must nails. MAGA voters duped. I just can't anymore. I need to rant directly in the faces of the people who voted for Trump. You MAGAs are all like "Anyone who is in the Epstein files should be put in the woodchipper" And when I ask "Oh Does that also apply to Trump He's mentioned in the files [-----] I just can't anymore. I need to rant directly in the faces of the people who voted for Trump. You MAGAs are all like "Anyone who is in the Epstein files should be put in the woodchipper" And when I ask "Oh Does that also apply to Trump He's mentioned in the files 38000"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2023018089710010477)  2026-02-15T12:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The number came out better than I and the markets expected; I then looked directly to the participation rate. Labor force participation tells a demographic story more than a cyclical one. The surge from [--------] was driven by women entering the workforce. Todays decline is largely math: baby boomers retiring. Age-adjust the data and the labor market looks tighter than headlines suggest. Will the deportation of immigrant worker and the reduction in SNAP benefits for U.S. citizens force that rate up Time will tell. Full disclosure I am a retired boomer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2021589047471378713)  2026-02-11T14:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I am shocked Costs from Trump's tariffs paid almost entirely by US consumers NY Fed says https://t.co/JRftdMdfsa Costs from Trump's tariffs paid almost entirely by US consumers NY Fed says https://t.co/JRftdMdfsa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2022293737288900867)  2026-02-13T12:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Maybe Putin should get moving he is getting his ass kick. How can anyone trust the President Trump: Zelensky is gonna have to get moving. Russia wants to make a deal and Zelensky is gonna have to get moving otherwise hell miss a great opportunity https://t.co/ROiyVu0yOo Trump: Zelensky is gonna have to get moving. Russia wants to make a deal and Zelensky is gonna have to get moving otherwise hell miss a great opportunity https://t.co/ROiyVu0yOo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2022388025154769119)  2026-02-13T19:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Nor do we. The GOP is a collective of spineless twits. As a European I don't understand how Trump remains in power after everything he has done. As a European I don't understand how Trump remains in power after everything he has done"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2022704189273735513)  2026-02-14T16:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Of course this expenditure will increase US competitiveness. Not Breaking news: ICE expects to spend $38.3 billion on its plan to acquire warehouses across the U.S. and retrofit them into immigrant detention centers that can hold tens of thousands of people according to agency documents. https://t.co/57qi3tlENb Breaking news: ICE expects to spend $38.3 billion on its plan to acquire warehouses across the U.S. and retrofit them into immigrant detention centers that can hold tens of thousands of people according to agency documents. https://t.co/57qi3tlENb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2023123455965872397)  2026-02-15T19:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Holdings of $LMT and $BA compelled me to ask @grok this question. Defense spending has an immediate positive impact on #GDP but a later negative lag effect due to crowding out and reduced productivity. I would think the same for expenditures on holding facilities for immigrant detainees. @stlouisfed https://x.com/i/grok/share/cbd4a9b7c3f34f9898ef9ef51791fcb1 https://x.com/i/grok/share/cbd4a9b7c3f34f9898ef9ef51791fcb1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2023397238148309363)  2026-02-16T14:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Holdings of $LMT and $BA compelled me to ask @grok this question. Defense spending has an immediate positive impact on #GDP but a later negative lag effect due to crowding out and reduced productivity. I would think the same for expenditures on holding facilities for immigrant detainees. @stlouisfed https://x.com/i/grok/share/cbd4a9b7c3f34f9898ef9ef51791fcb1 https://x.com/i/grok/share/cbd4a9b7c3f34f9898ef9ef51791fcb1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2023397166492839994)  2026-02-16T14:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Holdings of $LMT and $BA compelled me to ask @grok this question. Defense spending has an immediate positive impact on #GDP but a later negative lag effect due to crowding out and reduced productivity. I would think the same for expenditures on holding facilities for immigrant detainees. @stlouisfed https://x.com/i/grok/share/cbd4a9b7c3f34f9898ef9ef51791fcb1 https://x.com/i/grok/share/cbd4a9b7c3f34f9898ef9ef51791fcb1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2023397194942853237)  2026-02-16T14:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Holdings of $LMT and $BA compelled me to ask @grok this question. Defense spending has an immediate positive impact on #GDP but a later negative lag effect due to crowding out and reduced productivity. I would think the same for expenditures on holding facilities for immigrant detainees. @stlouisfed https://x.com/i/grok/share/cbd4a9b7c3f34f9898ef9ef51791fcb1 https://x.com/i/grok/share/cbd4a9b7c3f34f9898ef9ef51791fcb1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2023397354624229757)  2026-02-16T14:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@RememberSekhmet @Bricktop_NAFO Probit is a probability. Just leave it at that to avoid liability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2019964322999574595)  2026-02-07T02:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"A small experiment with the Lorenz curve produced a surprising result. Using Federal Reserve distribution tables I reconstructed income shares for four population tiers bottom 50% 5090% 9099% and the top 1% and computed a Lorenz-based Gini directly from those aggregates. Here is the puzzle: The official U.S. household Gini has climbed steadily for decades yet the Lorenz curves themselves appear to move only modestly. Why Because modern inequality is increasingly a tail phenomenon. Most of the change is occurring inside the top 1% a region that occupies just the final sliver of the population"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2021332959941492804)  2026-02-10T21:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This Administration would never honor the security agreement in any shape or form; the president is un-honorable. Budapest Memorandum anyone The Trump administration has told Ukraine to hold elections by May [--] or risk losing US security guarantees proposed in a peace deal-Telegraph What The Trump administration has told Ukraine to hold elections by May [--] or risk losing US security guarantees proposed in a peace deal-Telegraph What"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2021572784690807083)  2026-02-11T13:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Bricktop_NAFO Just use Probit analysis: Given me a database of all PDFs and I'll do it. https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2019123710914085363s=20 Hmm this could be an interesting statistical project. Anyone else interested @grok suggest that we could use AI techniques to identify redacted names with [--] to [--] percent accuracy https://t.co/sRF6tugbc0 https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2019123710914085363s=20 Hmm this could be an interesting statistical project. Anyone else interested @grok suggest that we could use AI techniques to identify redacted names with [--] to [--] percent accuracy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2019781182842634367)  2026-02-06T14:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@grok Looking at Thursday's Money Supply report and @grok does a very nice job in analyzing the Ratio of Broker-Dealer loans to M2. @stlouisfed https://x.com/i/grok/share/d25d6dddfff2423899d954966a5d82b7 https://x.com/i/grok/share/d25d6dddfff2423899d954966a5d82b7"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2023410232031109217)  2026-02-16T14:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The rising Income Gini Ratio from [----] in [----] to nearly [----] in [----] underscores a growing income inequality across all racial groups. This trend raises urgent questions about economic equity and policy effectiveness. November [--] New York city presents voters with a choice; the wealthy elite will not like the result. #Markets #SP500 #MoneySupply #Equality"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1984471216695251207)  2025-11-01T04:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Sharing an image from my paper on Chirp Effects in financial markets. These transient signals show that events move the S&P [---] only brieflyonce the chirps energy fades what remains is the background noise of [---] independent corporate stories. The last column is the new event which most closely affected the market. Order list is in the strength of the T-statistic. #Markets #SP500 #Finance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1984607791626272920)  2025-11-01T13:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Enemployment this week. It is remarkable how well a SARIMA (202) (002) model fits the data despite the COVID disruption. The forecast shows a slight upward bias for the unemployment rate. The prolonged government shutdown might change things. Full ARIMA analysis in the lower left panel. #markets #UnemploymentRate @stlouisfed #spx500"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1985356868823519442)  2025-11-03T14:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This week SCOTUS will clarify presidential powers on tariffs. Article II and national security may give the President a role but tariffs and revenues ultimately belong to Congress. Trumps flip-flops on tariff rates suggest theyre not truly a national security issue. If the president wants to MAGA hell need new ways to lift domestic investment. The trend for Net Domestic investment as a percent of GDP is still lower. #economy @stlouisfed #markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1985714359394582529)  2025-11-04T14:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Tomorrow wed normally get the payroll numbers. In this post I use a Box-Jenkins transfer function to estimate the likely range for the report. The plain ARIMA forecast for PAYEMS is wide and upward-sloping but its confidence interval is so broad no trader would rely on it. $SPX @stlouisfed #Economy #DataScience #QuantFinance #TimeSeries 1/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1986449421522096543)  2025-11-06T15:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"However we can improve the forecast by incorporating the ADP payroll data (ADPMNUSNERSA) which are released before the official PAYEMS numbers. The ADP model also shows an upward trend with a wide confidence interval but both ARIMA fits pass the white-noise residual test meaning they capture the systematic part of the series well. 2/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1986449423724126379)  2025-11-06T15:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Box-Jenkins Transfer Function Time @stlouisfed has decades of data for the Unemployment Rate Tariffs and GDP. Let's see what happen we look at the lag effects of our beautiful tariff shocks. First the raw series"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1998748494417522978)  2025-12-10T13:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Just short of a one percent tax on the entire US GDP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1998748497613582835)  2025-12-10T13:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Our unemployment rate. Given past history the current unemployment rate is ok not great but ok"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1998748499077443656)  2025-12-10T13:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Dragging out my 'Chirp' chart for Nasdaq [---] closings. So far this market is taking the recalibration of AI potential in stride. The last significant 'chirp' event was April [----] during the tariff wars. @stlouisfed $QQQ #markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2000954466468815150)  2025-12-16T15:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Pay special attention to the Federal Reserve numbers release this afternoon. Given Powell's speech last week we should see are rise in bills held by the Fed. TREAST is the FRED code. @stlouisfed #Markets #treasuries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2001751947456688321)  2025-12-18T20:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Image [--] (PCA): Principal components tell the same story from a different angle. The first component explains the overwhelming majority of variance and loads broadly across countriesthis is the global duration factor. The second component separates relative fiscal/term-premium dynamics but its far smaller. In other words most of what we observe is a common global force not bilateral contagion. Note the PCs are sorted by the strongest variation and 'bad' countries dominate global variation in rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2002784644341641514)  2025-12-21T16:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Bottom line: Long-term rates are set by a global supply-and-demand equilibrium for sovereign debt. The U.S. matters a lotbut it does not act alone. When deficits rise term supply expands or risk premia shift the adjustment is international. Trying to pin rate moves on a single country misses the structure of the market. The Cholesky Matrix allows us to simulate these dynamics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2002784647273451977)  2025-12-21T16:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"A Merry Holiday Monday morning to you and for metals I put together a quick PCA on miners and metals. PCA is often treated as abstract math. It shouldnt be. In metal miners PCA cleanly separates macro metal mix and firm risk three forces that investors constantly confuse. Why three components emerge in metal miners PC1 The global metals price / macro liquidity factor The first component loads positively across almost all miners and explains the bulk of variance. This is the rising tide factor: broad moves in gold silver and platinum prices driven by global real rates USD liquidity inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2003120274263495056)  2025-12-22T15:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"PCA gets real when you add scatterplots for specific series. Here: Newmont vs PC. Adj R [----] three-quarters of Newmonts return variance is explained by the single global metals factor. PC = macro metals & liquidity PC = metal mix (Au vs Ag vs PGMs) PC = firm-specific risk This is what miners are a factor trade actually looks like. #PCA #Gold #Metals #Quant"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2003120276570263609)  2025-12-22T15:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Same PCA different miner. Pan American Silver vs PC: Adj R [----] nearly all short-run variance explained by the global metals factor. Silver miners arent stories. Theyre high-beta expressions of the metals cycle. PC = macro metals & liquidity PC = metal mix (silver vs gold) PC = firm risk PCA shows why silver outperforms in ralliesand underperforms in drawdowns. #Silver #Metals #PCA #Quant"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2003120278705176651)  2025-12-22T15:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"A quiet Christmas morning here in Seattle got me thinking about linear optimization and the family dinner table. All data come from FRED at the @stlouisfed. Yesterdays LP model produced a dominant solution of rice broccoli chicken and cheese. In optimization terms these are corner-point solutions mathematically efficient but no family actually eats this way. Thats the point. This exercise is about substitution. When prices move households rotate across foods to keep costs down. The chart shows both dominance and substitution at work. 1/n #Economics #FoodPrices #HouseholdBudget #Data #FRED"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2004211335450841508)  2025-12-25T15:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"More interesting is the percent of median family income required to sustain even this boring meal plan. Why did foods share of the household budget fall so rapidly after [----] Using a simple linear-programming (LP) model I ask: What is the cheapest way to meet basic nutrition requirements given food prices at each point in time Once minimum nutrition becomes cheap food is no longer the binding household constraint. This is Engels Law but exposed mechanically. Left unconstrained cost-minimizing models do exactly what economics predicts: they collapse into corner solutions. Foods with the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2004211338177139190)  2025-12-25T15:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This isnt how people eat but it does reveal which foods carry the nutritional load when budgets are tight. MOM PLEASE can we have some steak 🥩 So I add minimum and maximum constraints (shown at right) to prevent dinner monotony. This nudges the LP away from pathological corner solutions and toward something resembling a real family meal. Im no dietician but Im still astonished by the nutritional density of broccoli. In the next panel we rerun the LP and watch substitution take over. 3/n"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2004211340215570914)  2025-12-25T15:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"We can see foods budget share fall sharply even as the level of food spending rises. Family incomes increased faster than food prices which stayed flat to lower in real terms. The result: food became steadily less binding in the household budget. The Great Recession shows up clearly incomes fell and the food share jumped but that shock was temporary. Once incomes recovered the long-run downward trend resumed. 4/n The story isnt austerity. Its productivity substitution and income growth working together"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2004211342358859929)  2025-12-25T15:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Have the top five states hit a logistic peak The provided chart illustrates the combined GDP of California Florida Illinois New York and Texas as a percentage of the total U.S. GDP from January [----] to April [----]. The red line in the upper graph depicts the actual GDP percentage while the dashed line represents a fitted trend. GDP Growth will diversify to other business friendly states. #Markets #BusinessNews"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2004939530529595603)  2025-12-27T15:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Have the metals rally just started Using FRED data I plot the PHLX Gold & Silver Index relative to Treasuries held by the Federal Reserve indexed to unity in [----]. After two decades of relative underperformance following QE-era balance sheet expansion metals are turning up again. With the Fed set to continue $40B/month in asset purchases starting Dec [--] [----] the relative scarcity trade may be re-asserting itself. Historically expanding central bank balance sheets have favored hard assetsjust not immediately. This move may be early but the regime backdrop looks familiar. @stlouisfed #GOLD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2004948500535201827)  2025-12-27T16:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I see a lot of post suggesting that the so-called monetary bulge has never been this high. SPX relative to Fed assets. SPX relative to M2. Pick your ratio same story. Ive been watching the Thursday Fed balance sheet release since the mid-1980s. Ive never seen this kind of divergence. This is not normal market behavior. The 'bulge' is structural and there for a reason. And the reason is not good for the consumer and for politics. Please read to the conclusion to find out why. $SPX @stlouisfed #m2 #markets 1/4 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010024224703107310"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2010024224703107310)  2026-01-10T16:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This is why the bulge keeps widening. Its not speculation. Its not meme stocks. Its not just liquidity. Its corporate balance sheet accumulation being capitalized into equity prices. Labor didnt get it. Households didnt get it. Corporations did. And the market followed the money. Cheers and have a great weekend. 4/4 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010024232340873228 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010024232340873228"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2010024232340873228)  2026-01-10T16:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"President Trump is not a derivatives trader but lets analytically analyze what a 10% cap on credit card rates actually means. I modeled U.S. credit card charge-offs (CORCCACBS Fed data) using a log-OU process and simulated the 1-year loss distribution. Then I overlaid a 10% revenue cap and todays funding costs (SOFR). This is not politics. This is payoff geometry. 1/3 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010056254505529725 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010056254505529725"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2010056254505529725)  2026-01-10T18:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The loss distribution is fat-tailed. Mean charge-offs 4.2% P95 5.7% P99 6.5% With SOFR 3.7% and modest operating costs the break-even charge-off rate under a 10% cap is 4.5%. That line cuts directly through the distribution.2/4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2010056256111964590)  2026-01-10T18:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"In plain English: Normal years barely survive [--] in [--] years lose money Recessions are structurally loss-making I also built a 4-quarter fan chart. Mean and median stay flat (mean reversion). The right tail explodes with time. Thats volatility compounding against a truncated revenue stream. 3/4 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010056257944859029 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010056257944859029"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2010056257944859029)  2026-01-10T18:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This is an options problem. A 10% cap = short a call on revenue + long a call on losses. No risk committee on earth warehouses that payoff. The mechanical response is not ideology: tighter underwriting lower credit lines fee substitution and credit rationing. Geometry not politics. 4/4 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010056259895210029 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010056259895210029"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2010056259895210029)  2026-01-10T18:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@PeterSchiff Presidents shouldnt do derivatives in their head. They aint intuitive. This rule by tweet has to stop. https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2010056254505529725s=20 President Trump is not a derivatives trader but lets analytically analyze what a 10% cap on credit card rates actually means. I modeled U.S. credit card charge-offs (CORCCACBS Fed data) using a log-OU process and simulated the 1-year loss distribution. Then I overlaid a 10% https://t.co/XUth9wDLpV https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2010056254505529725s=20 President Trump is not a derivatives trader but lets analytically analyze what a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2010077401288761721)  2026-01-10T19:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BillAckman @realDonaldTrump Banks will have to cancel high risk loans. The derivative math is simple. https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2010056254505529725s=20 President Trump is not a derivatives trader but lets analytically analyze what a 10% cap on credit card rates actually means. I modeled U.S. credit card charge-offs (CORCCACBS Fed data) using a log-OU process and simulated the 1-year loss distribution. Then I overlaid a 10% https://t.co/XUth9wDLpV https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2010056254505529725s=20 President Trump is not a derivatives trader but lets analytically analyze what a 10% cap on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2010085672682758314)  2026-01-10T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I did tinker with the model a bit and came up with some interesting thoughts. First I added some constraints "Mom can we have steak or chicken sometime". Here is the control panel for my simplex model. Being lazy I added an AI feature to populate nutrition data. More interesting I added at the bottom " simulate the family budget over time" feature"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2011786408755916842)  2026-01-15T13:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Man life can get really boring at the @USDA. Furthermore in the next panel I simulate the percent of the family budget spent on food over time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2011786410479816878)  2026-01-15T13:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Just working on my FRED tool before the Bears game. Some have asked me how I put so many graphs together so quicky. @stlouisfed Below is the Duration of Japanese Verus US Bonds. Go @Seahawks and go @ChicagoBears"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013009117569311196)  2026-01-18T22:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"A militant centrist thought: Using Flow-of-Funds data the market value of corporate claims divided by after-tax corporate cash flow is now well above its long-run mean (11). Historically sustained moves back toward 1950s-style P/E levels required higher effective taxes capital controls and domestic reinvestment not just tariffs. If MAGA truly means 1950s economics the valuation implications are not optional. The Political Pendulum does swing. hard. #markets @stlouisfed https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013018941002514536 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013018941002514536"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013018941002514536)  2026-01-18T22:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@NashvilleMusiq @stlouisfed @Seahawks @ChicagoBears Retired so enjoy challenging myself. Not sure I understand my own post LOL.🙃"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013047687302590975)  2026-01-19T00:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"FX is where crises show up first. Daily JPY FX volatility remains low. Not calm-for-now low structurally low. If there were forced sellers convexity hedging or balance-sheet stress USD/JPY vol would already be screaming. It isnt. (I traded interbank JPY options in the 1980s. This is not what a currency crisis looks like.) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013242338374758501 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013242338374758501"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013242338374758501)  2026-01-19T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Now look at rates volatility properly adjusted. Using zero-couponimplied price volatility on monthly data todays JGB volatility is well below the 1980s90s regime. No clustering. No regime break. No tail behavior. This is normalization not instability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013242340874289420)  2026-01-19T13:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"For the marginal buyer todays JGB is less risky not more. Higher yields shorter effective duration lower price sensitivity per bp. The most dangerous regime was: ultra-low yields + very long duration + convex holders. That regime is ending. Rising yields are de-risking new issuance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013242343214961044)  2026-01-19T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"So where is the crisis supposed to come from Remember this move was well telegraphed by the BOJ. BoJ owns 50% of vintage bonds duration risk is absorbed not transmitted Insurers & pensions hold the rest assets and liabilities are duration-matched Banks have already shortened duration materially No FX stress no rate-vol stress no forced sellers This is a repricing with stable ownership not a balance-sheet event. Markets confuse price movement with crisis. They are not the same. Have a great trading week. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013242345542815825"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013242345542815825)  2026-01-19T13:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"ES futures down 1% on Trumps Greenland tariff news. A Poisson jump model doesnt foresee which news hitsonly that shocks of this size are statistically routine. #Markets #Volatility #Derivatives #Poisson @stlouisfed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013279048474992720)  2026-01-19T15:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Not claiming causationbut note the relationship. As tariff rates rise (blue) the personal saving rate (red) has recently increased. Higher prices suppress internal demand and lessening demand show up as precautionary saving rather than consumption. @stlouisfed #Economics #Macro #Tariffs #HouseholdFinance #FRED https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013377208782664049 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013377208782664049"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013377208782664049)  2026-01-19T22:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The import price pressure appears in accounting identities. Tariffs compress imports faster than exports narrowing the trade gap between the US and the World --- C+I+G+(XM). Measured GDP increaseseven if underlying demand and real output have not. Accounting identities move faster than the real economy https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013377211177525291 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013377211177525291"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013377211177525291)  2026-01-19T22:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TivadarDanka My coding experience began with Fortran using punch cards. Stacks of punch cards Yes you first wrote your code on paper and studied before attacking the machine. Oh and time on the IBM [---] was expensive especially when using magnetic tape for data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013614433042345995)  2026-01-20T14:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Capital investment requires policy stability. Undermining free trade and alienating allies raises uncertaintyand uncertainty kills capex. Until the fog clears the rational choice is patience and Treasuries. @stlouisfed Photos from my daily ride yesterday. Eventually the fog clears. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013619953270927428 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013619953270927428"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013619953270927428)  2026-01-20T14:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SullyCNBC Posted this a month ago. Bond markets are international and no one Central Bank can control the long bond. https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2002784640294113331s=20 @DannyDayan5 asked an interesting question. Who is driving global long-term rates Short answer: no single country. Long answer: its a simultaneous global market for government debt. Image [--] (Cholesky): I start with a Cholesky decomposition of log-changes in 10-year https://t.co/Y1Id39VwIE https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2002784640294113331s=20 @DannyDayan5 asked an interesting question. Who is driving global long-term rates Short"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013633553053979046)  2026-01-20T15:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Yes the Japanese long bond is clearly looking for buyers. I couldnt find a clean $TLT look-alike for that exposure but Id start small. More broadly the image shows the transition matrix for daily $SPX log changes. Yesterdays move places us in State [--]. With [-----] observations that state is entirely routine. From here the probability of reverting to the central regimeStates [--] [--] or 6is over 55%. In other words: nothing statistically unusual and no regime break implied. Data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (@stlouisfed)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013964374269174016)  2026-01-21T13:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Applying the same state-transition framework to the #Nikkei225 we see the market did revert to State [--] the central regime. This is precisely what the transition matrix predicts: moves into the lower-volatility fringe states are typically short-lived with high probability of returning to the mean cluster. Different market same statistical gravity. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013967663115190494 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013967663115190494"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013967663115190494)  2026-01-21T13:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IAPonomarenko Ha Where did you pick up your sense of humor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013980512117752153)  2026-01-21T14:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This simulation shows how modern banks actually operate. When a bank makes a loan it does create a deposit but thats only the first step. The balance sheet must still balance. As payments move across banks reserves have to be settled. If a bank is short it doesnt magically create cash it uses its liquidity stack: first securities then the interbank market and only then the central bank. What really limits lending isnt reserves. Its capital profitability and risk. In this model credit losses reduce equity. Falling capital tightens lending. Liquidity stress shows up as interbank borrowing or"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2014199323878445415)  2026-01-22T04:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@DannyDayan5 Maybe uncertainty of insane policies is a component https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013377208782664049s=20 Not claiming causationbut note the relationship. As tariff rates rise (blue) the personal saving rate (red) has recently increased. Higher prices suppress internal demand and lessening demand show up as precautionary saving rather than consumption. @stlouisfed #Economics https://t.co/LLOmCFHJfr https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2013377208782664049s=20 Not claiming causationbut note the relationship. As tariff rates rise (blue) the personal saving rate (red) has recently increased."  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2015074933353906295)  2026-01-24T14:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@davidaxelrod @KristiNoem Events do change the course of history. This administration is finished. https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2015155848352583752s=20 I clearly do remember this day. The mood of the nation changed. Will the same happen after the Minneapolis shooting ICE is a national disgrace. https://t.co/afNwdVs6dh https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2015155848352583752s=20 I clearly do remember this day. The mood of the nation changed. Will the same happen after the Minneapolis shooting ICE is a national disgrace. https://t.co/afNwdVs6dh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2015205939062919308)  2026-01-24T23:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Yes the deficit is expanding and GDP is growing. Economists argue about the quality of GDP growth but few ask what sector is doing the growing. This chart shows non-private activity as % of GDP. The long-term trend is down not up. The private sector still drives 8590% of U.S. output. Government matters in crises (grey recessions). Private markets matter the rest of the time. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015893910636396615 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015893910636396615"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2015893910636396615)  2026-01-26T21:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Below is a table with the regressions for each point on our adaptive yield curve. Long term rates are near the anchor and political pressure deflates short term rates. Everyone loves free money. term premium expansion is just getting started next frame"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2016149849775997206)  2026-01-27T14:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@truflation Beer and gasoline is all you need to watch. https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2011216682459808153s=20 Yep the best fit for the CPI is the two most basic necessities of life: gasoline and beer. R-Squared is [----]. https://t.co/I19Oy9hGjN https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2011216682459808153s=20 Yep the best fit for the CPI is the two most basic necessities of life: gasoline and beer. R-Squared is [----]. https://t.co/I19Oy9hGjN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2016262660250304641)  2026-01-27T21:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@paulkrugman The receipts graphs beta coefficient in excess of one is a good measure of the progressiveness of our tax code. The tight r-square or fit also seems to suggest that on average very few wealthy cheat on their taxes Curious"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1471840996073750534)  2021-12-17T13:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The Federal Reserve and FDIC have 20k and 5K employees respectively. Regulatory capture efficiently devolves US markets to the level of a third world narco-state. Notice how $MXX volatility declines as it has to compete with its Northern neighbor ( $SPX ) for capital. The reserve currency status allows the US to experiment with navel picking MMT disasters. Great nations do fall from financial mis-management. Be forewarned. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1638902037156085761 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1638902037156085761"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1638902037156085761)  2023-03-23T13:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Economic memories are short. I added the unemployment rate to my adaptive expectations regression analysis. The second line is the lag regression of Unemployment. The Beta coefficient has two constants as I include a dummy variable to account for the pandemic months. /1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1649432837295312896)  2023-04-21T15:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"This dummy variable regression is a beauty. Changes on $SPX daily prices versus each President since the Coolidge administration. Recall Clinton's slogan "It's the economy stupid". Well he was right. Only two presidents have beta coefficient that are significant. Clinton green--- Good and Hoover - Bad. @BillClinton @AmityShlaes https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1858343316712276161 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1858343316712276161"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1858343316712276161)  2024-11-18T02:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"The standard explanation is QE inflated asset prices. Thats incomplete. If monetary expansion were flowing through households wages and consumption SPX and M2 would track more closely. They dont. M2 flattens. SPX explodes. So where did the money actually go Not to households but to corporate retained earnings. 2/4 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010024227001512253 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010024227001512253"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2010024227001512253)  2026-01-10T16:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Instead I built a transmission model using: Fed assets (WALCL) S&P [---] returns Corporate retained earnings (QFR data) Result: Changes in retained earnings are a statistically significant driver of both equity returns and the SPXM2 bulge. In plain English: monetary expansion is being captured on corporate balance sheets not household balance sheets. The market is pricing that accumulation and creates our 'bulge'. The quarterly increase in Monetary Expansion flowing through retained earnings of is highly significant. For a differencing regression a R-square [----] very large. The bulge is equal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2010024229203521729)  2026-01-10T16:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"A simple chart for the day; retained earnings as a percent of #M2 by industry. The Feds job: supply money in line with the economys natural growth. The corporations job: maximize profit and absorb those newly created dollars. Using @stlouisfed data this chart shows that relationship holding remarkably well over time. The top blue line Petroleum and coal products. As it fades other industries quietly take its place. Capital doesnt vanish. It reallocates. #FederalReserve #FlowOfFunds #Macro #Economics #CapitalAllocation https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2012150303567827162"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2012150303567827162)  2026-01-16T13:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Following up on my previous post on the efficiency of corporations growing retained earnings as a percent of U.S. GDP. Again using @stlouisfed data here is Debt-to-Equity by industry. The blue outlier is Motion Picture & Sound Recording. Why Film and TV are financed title-by-title. Debt is raised against expected future cash flowspre-sales distribution guarantees streaming contractsnot against a steadily compounding equity base. In this industry leverage isnt a sign of stress. Its the business model. #Economic #Finance #CapitalStructure #CorporateFinance #MediaIndustry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2012564497417089127)  2026-01-17T16:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@joebrusuelas In this graph I use the year Zero coupon equivalent ratio of rates against the FX rate. The next image I show the split regression to define the regimes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2015809333536473417)  2026-01-26T15:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"🧵Fed news along with a paper. "Rates Term Premium and the Next Banking Crisis" The recent easing of short-term interest rates has only led to an increase in long term bond yields. This result does not come at a surprise when looking at interest rate history. The red line is the average U.S. Treasury yield curve since 1977-02-01 to 2025-12-01. The green line is the adaptive yield curve using lagged regression of daily data. The grey line is the entrenched adaptive expectation of CPI. Our bond market demands a premium over CPI."  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2016149847746007147)  2026-01-27T14:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"More interesting is the response by the banking industry to the steepening yield curve. Can we see evidence of 'borrow short and lend long' If the adage is true policy that steepens the curve may intensify maturity transformation risk. Financial history is littered with examples of banks being caught by sudden rate rises that overwhelm the credit spread in their loan portfolios https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016149851810283732 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016149851810283732"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2016149851810283732)  2026-01-27T14:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"These are contemporaneous regimes. More information can be extracted using transfer functions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2016149856386212275)  2026-01-27T14:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Before estimating the transfer function both series are transformed to focus on unexpected short-run dynamics rather than long-run level comovement. The loan-to-asset ratio is converted to log differences which approximates percentage changes in banks loan intensity and stabilizes variance in this highly persistent series. The term premium series occasionally takes zero or negative values so a constant offset is added prior to log differencing to ensure numerical validity; because the analysis is conducted on log differences this constant has no effect on the resulting innovations or dynamic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2016149858567258440)  2026-01-27T14:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@EGHaug You mean the 'Black Swan' isn't real"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2016153551475769390)  2026-01-27T14:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited What is the rate of return if the government seizes your holdings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2016230079114956881)  2026-01-27T19:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Hard to believe if this UofC guy ever tackled a simultaneous equation. Import cost rise and begets inflation and rates rise in response. President Trump has always favored a weaker US dollar believing it will help US manufacturers and exporters and it lowers the real cost of our debt . President Trump has always favored a weaker US dollar believing it will help US manufacturers and exporters and it lowers the real cost of our debt "  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2016320952238510442)  2026-01-28T01:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Our Fed creates its own "Neverending Story". Using transfer functions this paper shows how valuation-driven growth embeds higher GDP expectations. When velocity breaks the political response is forced monetary expansionsetting up the next crisis. #economy #federalreserve https://drive.google.com/file/d/1L8c9ExZwEp123ZLKkqLY1WjEKv0TfDDl/viewusp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1L8c9ExZwEp123ZLKkqLY1WjEKv0TfDDl/viewusp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1L8c9ExZwEp123ZLKkqLY1WjEKv0TfDDl/viewusp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1L8c9ExZwEp123ZLKkqLY1WjEKv0TfDDl/viewusp=sharing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2016564126579900711)  2026-01-28T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"A negative coefficient indicates that positive short-rate shocks compress valuation multiples. Because equity valuations are discount-rate sensitive the response is strongest at short horizons with limited persistence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2016564133010047029)  2026-01-28T17:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Unexpected valuation shocks initially reduce money velocity with only a modest positive response appearing at short lags. This lag reflects delayed collateral acceptance and spending implying that valuation-led expansions depend on expectations before transactionsand are therefore fragile and reversible. This fragility is what begets the next crisisand forces the next expansion of the monetary base. Good luck with todays Fed announcement https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016564134989705660 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016564134989705660"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2016564134989705660)  2026-01-28T17:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"https://drive.google.com/file/d/1D9HDM_lSgMFUw81yRhvy1E3b8-40J3dp/viewusp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1D9HDM_lSgMFUw81yRhvy1E3b8-40J3dp/viewusp=sharing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2016608394061488454)  2026-01-28T20:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"My mistake the link to the paper is in this file. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1D9HDM_lSgMFUw81yRhvy1E3b8-40J3dp/viewusp=sharing Our Fed creates its own "Neverending Story". https://t.co/rCvh6GGsox Using transfer functions this paper shows how valuation-driven growth embeds higher GDP expectations. When velocity breaks the political response is forced monetary expansionsetting up the next crisis. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1D9HDM_lSgMFUw81yRhvy1E3b8-40J3dp/viewusp=sharing Our Fed creates its own "Neverending Story". https://t.co/rCvh6GGsox Using transfer functions this paper shows how"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2016608573707690089)  2026-01-28T20:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The LBMA gold fix is no longer available on @stlouisfed. As a proxy I use @Nasdaq NASDAQXAU. Regardless this rally is unprecedented. Then again so is this presidency. Today: the Transition Matrix and 90-day Vol study for $XAU $GLD $GC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2016872034194833873)  2026-01-29T13:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Well the Melania flick did generate a nice rate of return. Crony capitalism never sleeps. Bezos : Hands $75 million USD spent on Amazon over to Melania and Donald Trump. In Return Trump: Hands over $581.3 Million Tax Dollars to Bezos for a United States Airforce contract. https://t.co/iMu9cFuXm7 Bezos : Hands $75 million USD spent on Amazon over to Melania and Donald Trump. In Return Trump: Hands over $581.3 Million Tax Dollars to Bezos for a United States Airforce contract. https://t.co/iMu9cFuXm7"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2018760103651123628)  2026-02-03T18:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Congress does occasionally step in -- see the Voting Rights Act of [----]. The President cannot step in via a tweet. Our founding fathers were smart enough to not give that power to the Executive Branch. Ditto tariffs: the do remember the reasons for the Boston tea party. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018819833279008972 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018819833279008972"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2018819833279008972)  2026-02-03T22:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Revolt2020FU @FakeMAGAcover @justinamash Just laughable A bunch of Nazi MAGA voters duped into supporting tariff taxes to eliminate income taxes in billionaires. So you know History The Boston Tea party was firmly in the founding fathers thinkings and thus made tax revenues a congressional responsibility"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2018866577027010839)  2026-02-04T01:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@shahh Just the reverse of this idea. Momentum trades are essentially a backward bending demand curve. In $BTC we have big exit line. https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2015798544716939730s=20 Yes another example of a backward bending demand curve. https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2015798544716939730s=20 Yes another example of a backward bending demand curve"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2019516128087904612)  2026-02-05T20:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Just the usual additions to Treasury Holding for the Fed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2019777038790311988)  2026-02-06T14:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"How often do we get moves of [--] percent in the $SPX Prior to World War II quite often. Noting that [--] percent moves are currently more frequent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2020203185613521333)  2026-02-07T18:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I did not read this book in German though perhaps I should have. In [----] Rudolf I of Germany became the first Habsburg to rule central Europe. By the time of Maximilian I (circa 1517) the myth of the divine right of kingsand the inevitability of Habsburg rulewas firmly constructed. The genetic luck of the Habsburgsthe Fortinbras effectonly strengthened the dynasty producing male heirs for more than [---] years. My recent trip to Austria and Hungary prompted this reading and led me to reflect on our own brief lifespan within 20th-century America. Were we lucky War power and conquest are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/2015790684054446467)  2026-01-26T14:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Asked if I could create a similar chart for the $VXN and $NDX. Here you go Note the mean spread is less than that for the $SPX / $VIX relationship"  
[X Link](https://x.com/W_Igoe/status/1976372532640149704)  2025-10-09T19:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

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