#  @ToffCap ToffCap ToffCap posts on X about market cap, strong, stocks, cash flow the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1296685619104620544/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] -17% - [--] Month [-------] +70% - [--] Months [-------] -32% - [--] Year [---------] -72% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1296685619104620544/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -45% - [--] Months [---] no change - [--] Year [---] -6.40% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1296685619104620544/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +0.72% - [--] Month [------] +1.90% - [--] Months [------] +6.40% - [--] Year [------] +16% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1296685619104620544/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [stocks](/list/stocks) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [countries](/list/countries) [currencies](/list/currencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands) **Social topic influence** [market cap](/topic/market-cap), [strong](/topic/strong), [stocks](/topic/stocks), [cash flow](/topic/cash-flow), [has been](/topic/has-been), [debt](/topic/debt), [in the](/topic/in-the), [$drx](/topic/$drx), [investment](/topic/investment), [$moly](/topic/$moly) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@clarksquarecap](/creator/undefined) [@evfcfaddict](/creator/undefined) [@hkuppy](/creator/undefined) [@alexeliasson](/creator/undefined) [@roojoo3](/creator/undefined) [@joinyellowbrick](/creator/undefined) [@1maincapital](/creator/undefined) [@kingdomcapadv](/creator/undefined) [@davidkatunaric](/creator/undefined) [@mikefritzell](/creator/undefined) [@investspecial](/creator/undefined) [@lordofbiotech](/creator/undefined) [@olvehe](/creator/undefined) [@ataicapital](/creator/undefined) [@puppyeh1](/creator/undefined) [@alluvialcapital](/creator/undefined) [@marketplunger1](/creator/undefined) [@acerivercapital](/creator/undefined) [@pernasresearch](/creator/undefined) [@capitaloptimism](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [DRX Token (DRX)](/topic/$drx) [Endeavor Group Holdings, Inc. (EDR)](/topic/$edr) [TALEN ENERGY CORP (DE) (TLN)](/topic/$tln) [FC Barcelona Fan Token (BAR)](/topic/$bar) [Validity (VAL)](/topic/$val) [Telefonica Brasil, S.A. American Depositary Shares (Each representing One Common Share) (VIV)](/topic/$viv) [Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)](/topic/$hhh) [Forward Air Corp (FWRD)](/topic/$fwrd) [American Electric Power Company Inc (AEP)](/topic/$aep) [Lossless (LSS)](/topic/$lss) [Stellar (XLM)](/topic/$xlm) [Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD)](/topic/$lspd) [Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE)](/topic/$eose) [Burford Capital Limited (BUR)](/topic/$bur) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "GMO Payment Gateway $3769 is a Japanese diversified collection of payment and internet infrastructure operations. Despite the fundamentals showing a very healthy trend over the past years the share price action has been very disappointing. Growth should remain strong over the next few years with continued healthy FCF generation. Low-teens forward ev/ebitda for what should be 20% ebitda cagr over the medium-term. Also I just appreciate very thorough slide decks. Might be interesting to keep an eye out. We highlighted GMO recently on the blog. Find it and much more at @ToffCap (no paywall)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1877007855490056438) 2025-01-08T15:02Z 19.1K followers, 22K engagements "Crazy EPS chart from GMO Payment $3769 👇 GMO Payment Gateway $3769 is a Japanese diversified collection of payment and internet infrastructure operations. Despite the fundamentals showing a very healthy trend over the past years the share price action has been very disappointing. Growth should remain strong over https://t.co/hF2ek6irDf GMO Payment Gateway $3769 is a Japanese diversified collection of payment and internet infrastructure operations. Despite the fundamentals showing a very healthy trend over the past years the share price action has been very disappointing. Growth should remain" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1877375276021141846) 2025-01-09T15:22Z 19.1K followers, [----] engagements "We're out with a new TMM a list of interesting investments and event-driven trades that we regularly find. This week quite a few on the event-driven side. Check it out 🔥 $BKHT $CNS $APN $VEEE / $FRZA $EDR $AZE $LICT $TKA $DHR $WDC $PMV $777 $HHH $FUTR $CHGG $SDRL $MEIP $FWRD $FTRE $LEE $ABP $BCTX $SOLB $CBD $NOVN $TOPS https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698679818567496062 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698679818567496062" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1698679818567496062) 2023-09-04T12:50Z 19.1K followers, 25.2K engagements "There will be an opportunity to make a ton of 💰 amidst the chaos in car land. Alarming situation 2-3 years left to save the brand - Volkswagen $VOW management. Similar tone at Renault $RNO Mercedes $MBG and plenty of other large brands. Overcapacity (Chinese) competition uneconomical plants breaking of the EV mirage consumer pressure green ideologies etc etc. A LOT of headwinds are hitting this market which has been driven by uneconomical ideologies paid with zero interest rates for years. Im doing the works. I want to be ready" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1832826430553538945) 2024-09-08T17:00Z 19.1K followers, 13.8K engagements "Another timely flag from our Toffcap Monday Monitor our overview of interesting event-driven trades. $AXL to acquire Dowlais $DWL for $1.44bn. .though this feels a bit like a steal. Dowlais $DWL has not exactly been a success since its spin-off from Melrose $MRO. But while the stock is down almost 40% since the shares seem to have found a bottom and are rebounding. The company is very active in the market with its GBP50m buyback. Operating earnings https://t.co/efiajzN7fB Dowlais $DWL has not exactly been a success since its spin-off from Melrose $MRO. But while the stock is down almost 40%" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1884591783113310496) 2025-01-29T13:17Z 19.1K followers, [----] engagements "Skyworks Solutions $SWKS recently announced a $2bn buyback 20% of the current market cap. This one has been under a lot of pressure lately as growth is slowing much more rapidly than anticipated. Skyworks warned that there's going to be quite a bit less of their product in Apple's next iPhone cycle (the company's largest customer). Lots of board changes also. Basically a mess. But. you know we like to keep messes on the watchlist. There's a price for everything and these kind of setbacks might present interesting opportunities as they get dumped. Always appreciate any views. We highlighted" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1890401611471519870) 2025-02-14T14:04Z 19.1K followers, [----] engagements "This is what we have so far your favorite companies👇 Laurent-Perrier $LPE Dior $CDI Groupe Guillin $ALGIL Safran $SAF Pluxee $PLX DLSI $ALDLS TFF $TFF Robertet $RBT Getlink $GET Vicat $VCT Vusion $VU Arcure $ALCUR Virbac $VIRP Gerard Perrier $PERR Tarkett $TKTT Total $TTE Carrefour $CA I'll see what I can do 👍 Traveling to France this week to visit a few companies a.o. good old Lectra $LSS. Any favorite French companies on your list Traveling to France this week to visit a few companies a.o. good old Lectra $LSS. Any favorite French companies on your list" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1780571262256918789) 2024-04-17T12:17Z 19.1K followers, 19.4K engagements "Out with TMM #68 our weekly overview of actionable event-driven and special sits 🔥🔥 This week: - SOTP unlocks with catalysts - an Amer Sports [---] - transformational deals not yet recognized in the price - a low p/e company growing rapidly with a ton of cash on the b/s and an upcoming spin of a sub which makes it all more fascinating - potentially juicy tender offers - some very speculative pico-caps where a lot is going on - . and much more. As always @ToffCap. Enjoy https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1962486345248682079 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1962486345248682079" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1962486345248682079) 2025-09-01T12:03Z 19.1K followers, 20.7K engagements "It seems $LOAK is starting to get noticed. Shares are up +10% since last week and warrants +31%. Be careful things can move fast (both ways) in spac-land. https://toffcap.com/loak-danimer/ https://toffcap.com/loak-danimer/" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1317757958722375680) 2020-10-18T09:22Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements ".Case in point: I like $ALLT where a lot is going on. but $CYR is (already) more profitable growing faster and visibility is okay given the Orange contract ramp up. Yes it will probably need to raise cash but does that justify the MASSIVE valuation diff (No it doesnt.)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1319183127978397696) 2020-10-22T07:45Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "Just wanted to remind people this. Thesis is playing out really well fast. $BMRG closed (now $EOSE) and 🚀. Now $PIC and $LOAK. Full disclosure long warrants" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1333003462628544513) 2020-11-29T11:02Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "I basically look to answer the question how easy is this story to sell to institutional investors. And most importantly I want asymmetry; hence spac-warrants. I assume that warrants go zo zero in the worst case but the base case generally is $6.5 (forced conversion)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1334540757538140160) 2020-12-03T16:51Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "On this base I initiated a few positions over the past months two of which are $EOSE (was $BMRG) and $LOAK warrants (again pls refer to for background). $EOSE warrants are now +199% since purchase ($1.24) and $LOAK warrants +130% ($1.8). So far so good http://toffcap.com http://toffcap.com" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1334540758859329540) 2020-12-03T16:51Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements ".and the share price halved() this year. Meanwhile [----] ebitda is expected at [----] levels. But the exciting part is the growth. $CYR was able to close several MAJOR contracts one of which is with Orange (French Telco)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1336716596568535041) 2020-12-09T16:57Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "Based on these (long-term very sticky) contracts $CYR should be able to reach EUR40m ebitda by [----] which will continue to grow with 30% CAGR thereafter. In addition a new CEO is there to boost growth" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1336716597923287043) 2020-12-09T16:57Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "2. Guidance for 2021(): "solid growth in revenues and earnings in the clear double digit % range". So [----] was not a one off and big chance that $UMDK's growth this year was from longer term contracts that have been signed" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1337412782208262153) 2020-12-11T15:03Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "3. $UMDK specifically addressed lack of communication and bad ir; asked for patience and reiterated that they are working towards improvements (IFRS and uplisting in 2022)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1337412784150220804) 2020-12-11T15:03Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "4. $UMDK is working on a dividend policy () though nothing decided so far" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1337412786234798086) 2020-12-11T15:03Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "European sustainable fund assets surpassed US$1 trillion for the first time Again Europe still counts for the vast majority of assets in sustainable funds. I keep repeating that if you think were reaching a top in the US theres still plenty of room to go" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1341125457983524864) 2020-12-21T20:56Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "Fund flows trump everything. $LOAK $EOSE $PIC (exited) $ROCH $CFII" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1341125459669618691) 2020-12-21T20:56Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "Just exited my position in $LOAK warrants. Things are moving very fast here (though Im not complaining). With warrants comfortably [---] my target price has been reached" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1343625049295761408) 2020-12-28T18:29Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "$HEX still owns 75% of $HPUR. This is currently basically the entire market cap of $HEX () while $HPUR only constituted 10% of $HEX revenues. So one can still play $HPUR via $HEX. The main thing to keep an eye on is $HPURs share price. (Discl long $HEX)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1350018914743365635) 2021-01-15T09:56Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "I find it absolutely stunning what Powerband is doing. How often do you see such transparency re financials with micro-caps Generally its the other way around - a lack of transparency. I read this simply as confidence in the model + 'hurry' to get that price up. $PBX $PWWBF" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1368955573677535235) 2021-03-08T16:03Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "@CapitalShipyard In between I would say. Co. they bought had very respectable margins for being a completely analog one. $UMDK's main problem remains. very very bad at communicating" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1513840805361991683) 2022-04-12T11:25Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "Good ol' UMT $UMDK. How do you not know if you own a subsidiary https://umt.ag/en/umt-united-mobility-technology-ag-legal-action-and-application-for-preliminary-injunction-against-kb-holding-gmbh-buchberger-baugeraete-handel-gmbh-and-buchberger-baumaschinen-service-vermietung-g/ https://umt.ag/en/umt-united-mobility-technology-ag-legal-action-and-application-for-preliminary-injunction-against-kb-holding-gmbh-buchberger-baugeraete-handel-gmbh-and-buchberger-baumaschinen-service-vermietung-g/" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1585264685628243972) 2022-10-26T13:38Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "125mn fee to throw out the garbage $BMPS (eighth. capital. increase. in. [--]. years.) #blackhole #justletitdie #oldestturdintheworld https://www.ft.com/content/a3d8d289-9ea9-40c0-a798-6ed843f1d0c1 https://www.ft.com/content/a3d8d289-9ea9-40c0-a798-6ed843f1d0c1" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1585607616205672453) 2022-10-27T12:21Z 18.1K followers, [--] engagements "So UMT a EUR 11m market cap company has about EUR 21m NET cash over 1H22 and potentially another EUR 6.5m incoming as working capital reverses in H2. .so many questions. $UMDK" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1585655347171262468) 2022-10-27T15:31Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements "Meanwhile AEP hitting 5y-highs. Nice little company; good mgt organic growth accretive acquisitions financial discipline and attractive valuation (3x LTM ev/ebitda). $AEP $AEP.V" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1603298779477721089) 2022-12-15T07:59Z 13.7K followers, [--] engagements "As always this is no advice do you own due diligence. Enjoy $UMDK @MicroCapClub" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1610661583411085312) 2023-01-04T15:37Z 17.8K followers, [---] engagements "Another +25% today. MotorK $MTRK $MTRK.AS h/t tweets-that-aged-well https://t.co/lHNURbobX1 h/t tweets-that-aged-well https://t.co/lHNURbobX1" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1622974715760414723) 2023-02-07T15:05Z 17.2K followers, [---] engagements "Another good day for MotorK $MTRK. +100% since this tweet. I'm not a technical analyst - far from it - but every time I see a chart like this I become REALLY interested. Straight lie down final dump and flat even as bad news continues https://t.co/1ZnwNeD44N I'm not a technical analyst - far from it - but every time I see a chart like this I become REALLY interested. Straight lie down final dump and flat even as bad news continues https://t.co/1ZnwNeD44N" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1626185284047065088) 2023-02-16T11:42Z 17.2K followers, [---] engagements "As a reminder UMT is a micro-cap currently trading at roughly 2x FCF with a net cash & cash equivalents balance of c. 16m (my estimate 2022e pro-forma MEXS acquisition in cash) - or roughly its entire market cap. $UMDK has plenty of potential but mgt needs to take serious steps to improve disclosures. A sign of life from UMT $UMDK. The company put out a press release (in classic UMT-cryptic fashion) stating they are progressing with 'project Sunrise'. However the most interesting part of the news is that UMT appears close to new acquisitions: https://t.co/azBb75Op2y https://t.co/I91WFMGWw8 A" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1650812034462695429) 2023-04-25T10:40Z 17.8K followers, 14.5K engagements "Unfortunately (for us) $EPSIL was a bit more than a [--] bagger. We did a very tedious and manual screening exercise on a clients request back then looking at every () listed nano-cap (sub $15m) in Europe. Best thing client didnt even do anything with it haha. Such clients happen" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1654496249637117956) 2023-05-05T14:40Z 18K followers, [---] engagements "There are so many incredible deep value names in the oil & gas space. Case in point Unit Corp $UNTC. Unit operates two segments Unit Petroleum (production of oil and natural gas) and Unit Drilling (owns and operates [--] rigs). Unit trades at 2-2.5x '23e ev/ebitda and 25-30% FCFy" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1656343330345582595) 2023-05-10T16:59Z 18.1K followers, [----] engagements "Unit Petroleum should generate plenty of free cash flow over the foreseeable future given low decline rates and low opex. Also Unit Pet's assets were for sale about a year ago; the process was halted but could resume at more attractive prices" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1656343331801116678) 2023-05-10T16:59Z 18.1K followers, [---] engagements "Unit Drilling will profit from the strongly improved day rate environment of the onshore drilling market. Thightness seems here to stay which bodes well for rates. Operating leverage is massive in this sector and $UNTC 's Drilling operations are set to generate substantial FCF" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1656343333386453004) 2023-05-10T16:59Z 18.1K followers, [---] engagements "$UNTC has a very strong capital return policy. Unit has so far repurchased 20% of its shares paid a $10/s special dividend and installed a $2.5/s quarterly dividend (current yield of c 24%)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1656343335533936649) 2023-05-10T16:59Z 18.1K followers, [---] engagements "Unit has a clean balance sheet (c. $110m after the spec. dividend) a very shareholder friendly capital return policy and is trading at an absurd valuation on current commodity prices. I suspect $UNTC will be taken out sooner rather than later if this imbalance persists" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1656343337249521664) 2023-05-10T16:59Z 18.1K followers, [----] engagements "TMM #2 is printed check it out. $ALFEN $PFSW $TLN $SURG $APPS $NCR $MDU $MACK $MTAL $AZE $NEXI $TRE $FRE $OUT1V" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1658150490910212096) 2023-05-15T16:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "ToffCaps new Monday Monitor is out 👇 $STHO $AZE $KD $SPEC $SURG $AML $CMI $RCS $ABP $NK $ALFEN" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1660664403031736321) 2023-05-22T15:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$KD will gradually reprice its contracts which will improve margins. KD seems a classic deep value play with improving fundamentals (margin improvement and debt repayment should drive share price rerating). Looks like 50-100% upside if they can pull it off" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1661032506483781635) 2023-05-23T15:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Despite people's skepticism re eDreams' $EDR Prime loyalty program total subs was 4.3m at FY23 +1.7m yoy and 420k/quarter. EDR is flying (pun intended) to its '25 member targets the biggest driver for the EUR180m cash ebitda in FY25" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1661639476597104640) 2023-05-25T07:44Z 17.1K followers, 12.7K engagements "If $EDR pulls it off it'll be trading at 4-5x ev/cash ebitda (on FY25 b/s) with a VERY high level of visibility a much stronger b/s and continued strong growth ahead" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1661640354162941952) 2023-06-27T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "eDreams $EDR shares turned red for the day. The valuation makes no sense and the co is very much undervalued imo. I'm becoming more and more convinced this stock has multi-bagger potential over the next 2-3 years. 1/5" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1661731008843218946) 2023-06-26T12:38Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements "THE main criticism I found 1y ago was from people claiming that the Prime offering was bad. I'm hearing that less often depending on the country and it is also not reflected in the # of subs which continues to increase strongly q/q. now at 4.6m in May" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1661731011108151306) 2023-05-25T13:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Q4 [--] cash ebitda was 27m and fcf 48m. These have steadily grown over the past quarters and will continue to do so. The one-off/subscriber transition in de p&l has passed the trough and now it will be q/q sequential growth for $EDR" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1661731013230481417) 2023-06-12T04:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$EDR will generate increasingly more cash that will be used to repay debt and potentially buybacks. The cash ebitda target of EUR 180m in [----] (YE March) looks increasingly within reach" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1661731015747047424) 2023-06-27T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "eDreams is trading at 4-5x ev/cash ebitda looking [--] years out. OTAs are trading for 10-15x and that's excluding the transition to a more recurring sticky subscription company. At 15-20x $EDR could be a three/four-bagger over the next few years. (as always no advice)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1661731017726791680) 2023-06-27T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ".debt is $ 240m. $STAR is not an opco; the plan is to monetise the assets over the medium-term (development and asset sales). Potentially 100-150% upside over medium-term" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1662126887299170305) 2023-05-26T16:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "ToffCaps new Monday Monitor is out. Grab it here 👇 $ALLFG $EDR $BC $DSFIR $LFCR $HUR $NFT $SOLB $CMI $LFG $STARA" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1663133390344781824) 2023-05-29T10:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "As a reminder there won't be a TMM today. We'll be back next week with an update of the watchlist with new ideas and event driven trades. Check out the blog. Companies discussed in last week's edition: $ALLFG $EDR $BC $DSFIR $STHO $LFCR $HUR $NFT $SOLB $CMI $CINE $LFG $STARA" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1665626899912044545) 2023-06-05T07:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Back with a new Toffcap Monday Monitor. Check it out on the blog. $DSFIR $KTA $SOLB $ICAD $LFCR $DOG $CINE $1COV $NSI $BWA $NLTX $NCMI $CSV $TOPS" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1675902671004246016) 2023-07-10T05:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$UMDK just imagine the mess he encountered. No improvements so far at UMT on the contrary just deterioration. Stock remains a call option with a pretty good chance of going nowhere for some time. @ToffCap Mr. Hupe leaves. https://t.co/JXY74qD6gz @ToffCap Mr. Hupe leaves. https://t.co/JXY74qD6gz" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1676177308074274816) 2023-07-04T10:33Z 17.8K followers, [----] engagements "@convexpotential @OndejMach5 $UMDK complete radio silence. At least the old ceo picked up the phone every now and then. UMT is so far off normal communication and strategy policy that its comical. Pretty much every scammy nano cap I ever found did at least a much better job pretending 🤷" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1677208970233094144) 2023-07-07T06:52Z 17.8K followers, [---] engagements "Firmenich on the other hand is more skilled in targeting taste and achieving specific textures. Now the $DSFIR combination is able to offer a much wider gamma of products and react more rapidly to clients demands. DSFIR will be invited to 100% of clients briefs" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1678783916956590080) 2023-07-11T17:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Even more the companys earnings are now of much better quality. Exposure to commodity vitamins is vastly reduced and $DSFIR now has a top-notch Perfumery & Beauty division the likes of Givaudan $GIVN and $IFF which bring much less cyclicality to earnings" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1678783918990925824) 2023-07-11T15:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$DSFIR is targeting 5-7% organic revenue growth pa over the mid-term and 22-23% ebitda margins. Based on the new structure and the benefits from the current restructuring these could very well be rather conservative targets" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1678783920660267008) 2023-07-11T15:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The new DSM combines secular growth trends with lots of self-help potential a much wider revenue generation opportunity higher margins and more stable earnings. $DSFIR should command a much higher multiple vs history" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1678783922451410947) 2023-07-11T15:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Despite results pretty much in line with the street Barco's $BAR share price dropped 16% yesterday on the company's silence wrt the (absence of) co-CEO Beauduin. This was after another 10% drop in June for the same reason. Now trading at 8x 24e ev/ebitda for 15% ebitda growth over the mid-term and a clean b/s. 🙃" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1681934155842461696) 2023-07-20T07:48Z 11.8K followers, [----] engagements "Still waiting for that $LYB $10bn ebitda print thought ESG would be it (anyone.)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1682019436121972739) 2023-07-22T11:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "FUD has driven Barcos $BAR share price to absurd discounts. Every now and then we just have to stop look at the sky and say thank you Mr Market" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1683395123097346048) 2023-07-24T08:34Z 12.7K followers, [----] engagements "Whats your best micro cap idea and why" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1687420936444628992) 2023-08-04T11:11Z 17.8K followers, 30.5K engagements "@NeckarValue Cant mention Beal without mentioning Poker https://www.amazon.com/Professor-Banker-Suicide-King-Richest/dp/0446694975 https://www.amazon.com/Professor-Banker-Suicide-King-Richest/dp/0446694975" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1688566812231819265) 2023-08-07T15:04Z 13.7K followers, [---] engagements "@hkuppy 's back of the envelope math is all you need. 'Most investors are wed to prior models models that came of age during the past few decades of declining interest rates and inflation. As a result they dont recognize many of the prior rules are now inverted.' Another great read 👌" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1688864666917761024) 2023-08-08T10:48Z [----] followers, 121.2K engagements "Diving into Monarch Cement $MCEM. Does anyone have an idea re current and expected (changes in) capacity utilisation as well as any secular tailwinds for the next few years (Obv Im still very early in the works here. so 🙏🏼)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1691026049688039424) 2023-08-14T09:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "First day after the holidays and the ToffCap team is already highlighting a new company. This time we look at Barco $BAR a high-quality Belgian technology company with 100% upside over the next few years. ✅good growth (+15-20% ebitda pa) driven by secular tailwinds ✅solid balance sheet ✅shares on sale due to a few temporary reasons ✅strong market share in expanding markets ✅just a cool company Check out the blog 👇" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1691855682776039503) 2023-08-16T16:53Z 12.6K followers, 15.9K engagements "We recently highlighted Barco $BAR a company we had on our watchlist for a long time. We turn over a LOT of rocks every day and always have more ideas than time. Subscribe to the ToffCap blog to get our watchlist and write-ups on a regular basis 👍" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1692234065863200910) 2023-08-17T17:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Just started to scratch the surface but Daktronics $DAKT reminds me a bit of Barco ( $BAR has a similar offering in LVW though focusses on completely other markets). These businesses tend to have a strong secular tailwind i.c. slowly but steadily the product/technology is moving more towards software. A shift from e.g. 15% of software/rev to 25% over a decade could mean 5% gross margin impact. And on single-digit ebitda margins that adds up" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1692552994057806244) 2023-08-18T15:04Z [----] followers, 26.4K engagements "We're out with a brand-new TMM an overview of interesting companies and trades that caught our attention. Check it out👇 $SLYG $BAR $DAKT $CROX $ICAD $BWA $BREE $SAVE $ARMK $U $VSTO $NOVN $LL $BCTX $NCMI $ODD $EURN $STNG $TNP $TORM $FRO $HAFNIA" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1693625749691826431) 2023-08-21T14:06Z 12.7K followers, 17.3K engagements "BIG acquisition for Atlas Engineered Products. $AEP acquiring LCF for c. $29m; $26.9m in cash rest shares (at $1.14). This one will have a significant impact; LCF generated $9.5m ebitda in [----] (compared to $14m for $AEP). And AEP intends to continue stating that "the Company is currently reviewing a number of additional acquisition targets." @PaulAndreola" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1694294755042025647) 2023-08-23T10:25Z 12.2K followers, 22.5K engagements "Altas Engineered $AEP today up on the LCF deal which is clearly good news. [----] was a good year for the industry and [----] will be a step back. Nonetheless guesstimating $6m 2023e ebitda for LCF gives 5x ev/ebitda pre-synergies - a good price in itself. And we know that $AEP is able to generate good synergies from its deals. AEP continues to move in the right direction - growing earnings attracting investors improving liquidity increasing the multiple. BIG acquisition for Atlas Engineered Products. $AEP acquiring LCF for c. $29m; $26.9m in cash rest shares (at $1.14). This one will have a" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1694347207019835674) 2023-08-23T13:53Z 12K followers, [----] engagements "No dog in this fight but Im very curious to see how the $U market will react from current levels if $U.U is able to stay at a premium for some time 🤞" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1694601223402324129) 2023-08-24T06:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Lots of comments lately on the relatively valuation between countries particularly in Europe - how 'country X is way cheaper now vs country Y' - but completely disregarding the (often massive) differences in inflation/yield dynamics over the past few years" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1696068984699797583) 2023-08-28T07:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Daktronics $DAKT is expecting strong growth in its end markets over the next years (20% pa). While companies tend to exaggerate their opportunity peers like Barco $BAR are eyeing roughly the same figures. One of the biggest drivers for this growth is the combination of new much improved technology (digital + LED) with large LED video walls having reached an inflection in price / durability / versatility and pent-up demand from covid. The markets were at the forefront of a large replacement cycle before covid. Now markets are back to growth + still some pent-up demand from covid. Overall" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1696549849246703791) 2023-08-29T15:46Z 12.7K followers, [----] engagements "Every couple of weeks we share our TMM a list of interesting investments and event-driven trades that we regularly find. Interestingly as we're building next week's list we're noticing a LOT of event-driven trades. The next list will be unusually long. So stay tuned 🔥" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1696814371895136278) 2023-08-30T09:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Another great set of results for eDreams $EDR. 375k new Prime subs for a total of 4.7m. Q1 cash ebitda was 29.4m (vs ccs 24.0m) growing 110% yoy indicating significant Prime sub contribution. $EDR improved its disclosures now splitting Prime and non-Prime subs contribution👍. Working capital seems to be returning to the normal seasonal pattern. EDR could rerate +50% and still be in line with the OTA space. Should EDR rerate to some type of recurring rev subscription model valuation the upside would be much more significant. The shares are much undervalued given skepticism regarding its" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1697172674101797251) 2023-08-31T09:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In case you missed it yesterday the latest TMM is out; a list of interesting investments and event-driven trades that we regularly find 👇 $BKHT $CNS $APN $VEEE / $FRZA $EDR $AZE $LICT $TKA $DHR $WDC $PMV $777 $HHH $FUTR $CHGG $SDRL $MEIP $FWRD $FTRE $LEE $ABP $BCTX $SOLB $CBD $NOVN $TOPS" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1699040345705566524) 2023-09-05T12:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Inpost $INPST the European operator of parcel lockers posted yet another solid quarter with continued growth in all main operational KPIs. I was skeptical re Inpost's proposition at first believing that automated parcel machines (APMs) would not work in markets with a relatively high penetration of to-door delivery. I changed opinion studying the company and the product and now believe this company will be a wrecking-ball to Europe's sleepy postal operators. Poland is becoming a cash cow and France and the UK will be in a few years' time. $INPST mgt is aggressive and I would not be surprised" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1699309614129348837) 2023-09-06T06:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "So even with the shares up today ADF is trading at 3x ev/ebitda and 5x p/e on annualised earnings which are growing 100%. And very few are paying attention (the cc lasted [--] mins). $DRX s backlog remains strong as well as the market outlook with mgt commenting that the opportunities in our markets remain more than attractive. Theres plenty left to go as $DRX continues to increase utilisation. Assuming another 20% revenue growth for next year would imply 50% net income growth assuming stable gross margins (which should continue to expand)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1699817193590972638) 2023-09-07T16:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DakotasTwits @JGGCDN Growth will decelerate at some point (obviously) but theyve never had these kind of tailwinds which will last for another few years at least. Also higher efficiency from automation investments are here to stay. Plenty to go from here" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1699890797762728186) 2023-09-07T21:02Z 13.7K followers, [---] engagements "Every now and then I get a new subscriber mail stating '.also reads X Y and [---] other newsletters'. No idea how but respect" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1700033850624061712) 2023-09-08T06:30Z 13.7K followers, [----] engagements "I can't remember the last time (if ever) I've seen anything like this. We know Calumet $CLMT is preparing to spin the MR unit in a few months targeting CLMT's current EV. But they recently even dedicated a slide to what they believe is an intrinsic value range for $CLMT's equity; $31-56 p/s (vs $19 today). From yesterday's Barclays conference:" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1700059018029310199) 2023-09-08T08:10Z [----] followers, 36.6K engagements "We're out with a new post discussing cinema projectors $BAR Daktronics $DAKT and ADF Group $DRX. Check it out on the blog ✅" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1701990213898129586) 2023-09-13T16:04Z 12.7K followers, 10K engagements "Distributors see it first. Brenntag's $BNR CFO recently indicated seeing slow sequential volume recovery (remember Q2 volume was bad so will Q3) while BASF's $BAS CFO mentioning volumes 'bottoming not getting worse'. $IMCD $AZE" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1702236651454349428) 2023-09-14T08:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A quick reminder. 10x p/e in e.g. Poland is NOT the same as 10x p/e in the US (or Euro zone)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1704058177166209186) 2023-09-19T09:01Z 13.5K followers, 17.4K engagements "If I could go back to my junior portfolio manager days I would have studied short reports more often. Here is a list of short sellers I like (in no particular order) and are on X 👇. Hope you find it useful. White Diamond @WhiteResearch NINGI Research @NingiResearch Guasty Winds @guastywinds Friendly Bear @FriendlyBearSA Grizzly research @ResearchGrizzly The Bear Cave @BearCaveEmail @StockJabber Muddy Waters @muddywatersre Safkhet Capital @SafkhetCapital Hindenburg Research @HindenburgRes Spruce Point @sprucepointcap Viceroy @viceroyresearch Kerrisdale Capital @KerrisdaleCap Iceberg Research" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1704130713145254225) 2023-09-19T13:49Z [----] followers, 25.7K engagements "Ranpack $PACK screens interesting. Packaging business that experienced the classic boom-bust wave due to covid. [----] was horrible with strong pressure on demand combined with a spike in paper prices. Add the leverage and the stock got crushed (after riding high the year before). Now demand seems to be slowly coming back while gross margins have improved over the past few quarters and will continue to improve as lower raw material prices fee through. This comes on the back of a few years of investments to improve efficiency. All bodes well for continued strong ebitda growth. Management has a" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1704209343829213203) 2023-09-19T19:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Knaus Tabbert $KTA increasing revenue and ebitda guidance now targeting 120m ebitda at midpoint (ccs roughly there). Knaus Tabbert (540m market cap) develops and sells recreational vehicles. Co. trading at 6x 2023e ev/ebitda for 15% ebitda CAGR over the next few years. At its recent investor day Knaus (ao) introduced medium-term targets aiming for a revenue cagr of 16-18% for 2023-2027 2bn revenues by [----] and 10% ebitda margin over the medium-term. Knaus plans to distribute around 50% of net income" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1704380991731581260) 2023-09-20T06:24Z 16.7K followers, [----] engagements "We're out with a new write-up. This is a fun interesting one and definitely not our typical investment. The company is Mongolia Growth Group $YAK. MGG's CEO and largest shareholder is Harris Kupperman "Kuppy" @hkuppy . His hedge fund Praetorian Capital returned 8x net since early [----] (no typo). If you like #uranium and oil MGG might be an interesting opportunity to add exposure to these sectors along with Kuppy's investment skills at a pretty nice discount to NAV. Enjoy" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1704505468255707240) 2023-09-20T14:39Z 18.1K followers, [--] engagements "$ZOO pitch on VIC. I was (probably) going to write this one up but someone beat me to it. Super easy thesis: if you believe that the Hollywood strikes will get resolved over the next year. multi-bagger potential" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1704821973451190409) 2023-09-21T11:36Z [----] followers, 29.4K engagements "Weve been sharing our long list of fund letters. Here's the next batch. Enjoy 👇 Qualivian Investment Partners @qualivian Alphyn Capital Management @SamerHakoura Kernow Asset Management (kernowam .com) East72 Holdings @East72Holdings Roubaix Capital (roubaixcapital .com) ClearBridge Investments @Clear_Bridge Black Bear Value Partners (blackbearfund .com) Akre Focus Fund (akrefund. com) Ace River Capital @AceRiverCapital Distillate Capital @DistillateCap Miller Value Partners @MillerValue Wedgewood Partners (wedgewoodpartners .com) Boyar Value Group @BoyarValue Pernas Research @pernasresearch" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1704864115053756862) 2023-09-21T14:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Qualivian Investment Partners @qualivian Alphyn Capital Management @SamerHakoura Kernow Asset Management (kernowam .com) East72 Holdings @East72Holdings Roubaix Capital (roubaixcapital .com) ClearBridge Investments @Clear_Bridge Black Bear Value Partners (blackbearfund .com) Akre Focus Fund (akrefund. com) Ace River Capital @AceRiverCapital Distillate Capital @DistillateCap Miller Value Partners @MillerValue Wedgewood Partners (wedgewoodpartners .com) Boyar Value Group @BoyarValue Pernas Research @pernasresearch Leaven Partners @leavenpartners Upslope Capital Management @UpslopeCapital (links" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1704907221841141779) 2023-09-21T17:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Its a good time to highlight this general write-up on the Specialty Chemicals Distribution market one of the highest quality markets I know of. The valuation of the very few listed pure play companies is becoming really compelling. We do not often find size + cheap + high quality + long runway for growth all at the same time. Azelis $AZE IMCD $IMCD" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1705194839338258775) 2023-09-22T12:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I believe that despite the strong share price performance of Polish parcel locker operator Inpost $INPST over the past year the shares still have multi-bagger potential over the next few years. This company truly appears to be - dare I say it - a disruptor in an otherwise very" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1705224123977245012) 2023-09-22T14:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Fintwit friends what are some top-notch LatAm companies/opportunities you have on your radar Thanks. Fintwit fam. who are some of the best accounts to follow focussed on Latam and Eastern European equities (Other than the 👌 @ClarkSquareCap and @irbezek ) 🙏🏼 Fintwit fam. who are some of the best accounts to follow focussed on Latam and Eastern European equities (Other than the 👌 @ClarkSquareCap and @irbezek ) 🙏🏼" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1705550151954100711) 2023-09-23T11:50Z 18K followers, 52.1K engagements "I always respected and appreciated good trades. Particularly those that seemed so far out of the box. If #uranium hits [---] Im sending @hkuppy a very nice bottle of spumante. Feel free to remind me of this" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1705946830700175686) 2023-09-24T14:06Z 13.7K followers, 13.2K engagements "This could rerate really quickly. $ZOO" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1706334987971178679) 2023-09-25T15:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Just got my new running shoes. I dont think this will make any difference but its cool marketing nonetheless from Adidas ✅ $ADS $CON" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1706359709756768544) 2023-09-25T17:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The rumors are getting stronger that Barco's $BAR co-CEO Charles Beauduin will return to the office in October. The absence of Mr. Beauduin has been one of the major reasons (THE reason most probably) of the recent share price correction. A return of the CEO would be a very strong near-term catalyst. Also a reminder that there will be a $BAR analyst day in November - another effort of the company to improve communication. We wrote about this nice quality company with lots of upside potential a month ago 👇" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1706654295423082617) 2023-09-26T12:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "St Joe $JOE gave back all the gains from the latest 🔥Q2 results. This company is performing really well and is benefitting from secular tailwinds. Might be interesting to keep an eye on" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1706733131733102931) 2023-09-26T18:11Z 12.2K followers, [----] engagements "Time for our next batch of fund letters. Some interesting new ones 👇 Spear Advisors @SpearAdvisors Third Point Partners @DanielSLoeb1 FMI (fmimgt .com) Fairlight Alpha Fund @Fairlight_Cap Stanphyl Capital Management @StanphylCap Oaktree Capital @HowardMarksBook Stewart Asset Management (stewartassetmgmt .com) Vulcan Value Partners (vulcanvaluepartners .com) Tidefall Capital Management @TidefallCapital Weitz Investments @WeitzInvest Starvine Capital @StarvineCapital Aristotle Funds (aristotlefundsimst .com) Broyhill Asset Management @ChrisPavese Maran Capital Management @Dan_Roller Warden" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1707008104137666743) 2023-09-27T12:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Atlas Engineered Products $AEP announces adoption of shareholder rights plan but states Plan Not Adopted in Response to Any Pending or Threatened Take-Over Bid 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1707034634200985759) 2023-09-27T14:09Z 12.7K followers, [----] engagements "$ZOO cut to hold TP 90p. current price 52p. 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1707285117033435269) 2023-09-28T06:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tough quarter for $ZOO (as expected). Again not a difficult thesis: IF strikes get resolved Zoo will do ok. Otherwise this happens. (no position)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1707291798811414872) 2023-09-28T07:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Very good cost control for the Polish Amazon Allegro $ALE. The company seems to exhibit the classic pattern of CEO changes: first some kitchen sinking then under promise and over deliver. Importantly continued growth in Poland combined with cost control is leading to healthy" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1707301801928569334) 2023-09-28T07:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "We're out with another TMM - #11 👍. There's once again a LOT of action on the event-driven side. Enjoy $FTLF $INPST $ZOO $LAC $GNS $TBRD $CYT $YELLQ $BB $OCN $AMS $ENX $ARIX $GAN $CZOO $OEL $ATEX $SLVM $SWBI $GPOR $MEIP Special thanks to @1MainCapital @puppyeh1 @oracleof90402 and @AmadeusValue for some of the ideas" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1708821571794575803) 2023-10-02T12:29Z 16.5K followers, 19K engagements "Busy period in the spin-off world. A few recent and upcoming distribution dates: Aramark $ARMK 30/09 ( Vestis $VSTS) Lithium Americas $LAC 03/10 ($LAAC) Kellogg $K 02/10 ($KLG) Genius Group $GNS 02/10 Danaher $DHR 30/09 (Veralto $VLTO) Novartis $NVS 04/10" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1709226509200679356) 2023-10-03T15:18Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "By the way so far $KLG and $VSTS are trading like 🗑 🚮 Busy period in the spin-off world. A few recent and upcoming distribution dates: Aramark $ARMK 30/09 ( Vestis $VSTS) Lithium Americas $LAC 03/10 ($LAAC) Kellogg $K 02/10 ($KLG) Genius Group $GNS 02/10 Danaher $DHR 30/09 (Veralto $VLTO) Novartis $NVS 04/10. Busy period in the spin-off world. A few recent and upcoming distribution dates: Aramark $ARMK 30/09 ( Vestis $VSTS) Lithium Americas $LAC 03/10 ($LAAC) Kellogg $K 02/10 ($KLG) Genius Group $GNS 02/10 Danaher $DHR 30/09 (Veralto $VLTO) Novartis $NVS 04/10" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1709244808433197203) 2023-10-03T16:31Z 12.8K followers, 10.5K engagements "@ThomasBraziel @memyselfandi006 Its basically a one-stop-shop / platform if you need to allocate capital to (active) funds and etfs. Makes sense that it gets sold" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1709511607556939933) 2023-10-04T10:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Im highlighting again this general write-up on the Specialty Chemicals Distribution market one of the highest quality markets I know of. Q3 results are soon and will be bad. Sentiment is reaching extreme negative levels and the valuation of the very few listed pure play companies is becoming really compelling. Im keeping a very close eye on these two. We do not often find size + cheap + high quality + long runway for growth all at the same time. Azelis $AZE IMCD $IMCD" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1710267261607379213) 2023-10-06T12:14Z [----] followers, 15.6K engagements "I recently wrote about my strongly increased focus on the chemicals space. Ive been asked about my watchlist and why Ive not yet pulled the trigger. I keep track of many names (see below for some of them). As to why Im still on the sidelines. Generalising at the moment the hurt has been mainly localised on the Industrials side (chem intermediates material tech / CASE processing chems etc). The industry is still much suffering from imbalances: demand and WC normalisation after strong Covid tailwinds slow China reopening (+China dumping in other markets) high interest rates inflation raw mat" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1710627703697572204) 2023-10-07T12:06Z [----] followers, 28.7K engagements "A bit of a dramatized announcement by eDreams $EDR but still continued signs of traction of the company's adoption of the subscription model. As a reminder $EDR is targeting 7.5m Prime members by FY25 (ic March 2025) and is very much on track. The company's conversion to a subscription model is continuing to gain traction and has reached a critical mass imo. 'cash' earnings should now continue to converge towards 'classic' earnings; based on a target of 7.5m Prime members eDreams is trading at 5x ev / (cash) ebitda looking 1.5yrs out. OTAs are trading for 10-15x and that's excluding the" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1711649099303260421) 2023-10-10T07:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Are we finally going to see Vivendi $VIV rationalize its asset portfolio and realize (part of) its big holdco discount (80% upside) The Vivendi story is well-known; for those not familiar with the case $VIV is a French conglomerate (8.7bn market cap) with many media and entertainment related assets. The amalgamation of assets is relatively inefficient with core assets centered around Canal+ Havas and Lagardre but also including a vast array of non-core assets (I include ao Gameloft GVA Dailymotion) and several minority stakes in listed companies such as a 10% stake in UMG $UMG and 24% in" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1711730271496597605) 2023-10-10T13:07Z 16K followers, 26.9K engagements "@MikeFritzell For the group: Europe organic growth +7% (+19% in Q2) US +2% (Q2 -1%) Asia ex Japan +11% (Q2 +34%) and no significant change in China Japan +30% (Q2: +29%)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1711998529722368500) 2023-10-11T06:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "InPosts $INPST potential remains strongly underappreciated imo. As previously mentioned (below) I believe that in a few years time InPost will have three big cash flow generating divisions (Poland the UK and France) each one large enough to reflect the current market valuation. This is excluding any new market the company will attack (which it definitely will). Lets do some back-of-the-envelope math on the UKs potential. $INPST is targeting roughly 17k APMs over the medium term (3 years) in the UK which is highly realisable now that capacity is unconstrained after the Menzies deal. I believe" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1712126338839036302) 2023-10-11T15:21Z [----] followers, 15.2K engagements "Gulfport Energy $GPOR (trading at roughly 3x ev/ebitda on 24e) recently increased its buyback program to $650m or roughly 1/3 of its market cap. So far Gulfport bought back c. 15% of mc" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1712160834846171568) 2023-10-11T17:38Z 16.5K followers, [----] engagements "Yes great result. Kontron $KTN to acquire BSquare $BSQR for c +50% on yday's closing price A nice outcome for $BSQR holders. Congrats @ToffCap https://t.co/9QEG7yAxtX A nice outcome for $BSQR holders. Congrats @ToffCap https://t.co/9QEG7yAxtX" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1712355620983038082) 2023-10-12T06:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Long (very small) OOM calls on Fresenius Medial Care $FME; -20% due to Ozempic significantly impacting future dialysis patient volumes I don't buy it. (and if I'm wrong that means a lot of people will be much healthier. so tbh no idea if I want this one to work.)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1712490058928779613) 2023-10-12T15:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "ADF $DRX continues to show impressive relative strength" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1712547298570535180) 2023-10-12T19:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Any good stock pitches on $GEO out there This is one of those stocks that has multi-bagger feeling five mins into the research" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1712799660119588951) 2023-10-13T11:57Z [----] followers, 26.8K engagements "Ackman continues to buy up Howard Hughes $HHH. HHH recently announced it would spin-off its Seaport and other related assets which would help close the discount to NAV. The company recently provided a slide with a SOTP calculation (90% upside to the current share price)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1712822755618377932) 2023-10-13T13:29Z [----] followers, 11.7K engagements "So apparently I've been living under a rock wrt $GEO and there's a lot of smart people out there that already did quite a work on the company: @CorneliaLake @agnostoxxx @LingmerthStefan @BoxLongs @RealCandaceO @DakotasTwits And quite some SA and VIC write-ups as well 🙏" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1712904131021586818) 2023-10-13T18:52Z [----] followers, 10.1K engagements "I once (co-)managed a 50m fund and a 1bn fund at the same time. The 50m fund: two people deciding within minutes to learn everything possible about this interesting new find and booking a trip to meet mgt. The bn+ fund: ten people taking an hour to discuss how US tech and the $ were relatively overbought and decide to sell 75bps of MSFT to buy NOVN. Guess which fund was most fun to manage (and had better performance)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1713526726943183051) 2023-10-15T12:06Z [----] followers, 49K engagements "Toffcap's Monday Monitor #12 (our overview of interesting event-driven trades and companies) is out and it's the best one so far 👍. A lot of action on the event-driven side ✅. And a special thanks to our friends @ClarkSquareCap and @evfcfaddict for their contributions. $ARCB $AMBP $CABP $MLP $VIV $TECK $EAPI $ACDC $ALLFG $BTMD $7732 $HHH $ASTR $WPC $DLA $LL $UNFI $MNKTQ $GTH $TSRI $SMLP $IMPL $RAD $AIR $EBIX $AWIN $NUVB $VSTA $BB $VSTS $VLTO $KLG $SDZ $NATL This publication continues to grow and we constantly find new ideas. Subscribe so you wont miss it" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1713894443743412510) 2023-10-16T12:27Z 13.7K followers, 27.8K engagements "@evfcfaddict @ClarkSquareCap Just seen it. Has been on the list for a few months now though disappointing price have to say. But can't win them all (unfortunately)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1713896134135992599) 2023-10-16T12:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Astra Space $ASTR is your typical dumpster fire stock. A natural cash incinerator that should never have been listed. Just look at the chart below (not to mention the 5y chart). But dumpster fires can be interesting trades. According to Bloomberg Astra is considering selling a 51% stake in its in-space propulsion business among other strategic sale options. The unit is to be valued at $100m - compared to a current market cap of $16m. Im keeping an eye on this garbage; might be an interesting option-like trade" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1714328622620725403) 2023-10-17T17:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Sign of the times for Barco $BAR as shares drop 15% on guidance revision while new ebitda guidance implies ccs cuts of c. 7%. Revenues are now expected to be in line with FY22 and 14% ebitda margin (- the latter implies almost 20% ebitda growth in FY23). Top of the watchlist now. Yes demand is weak but there's a ton of self-help potential here. Barco is pulling off margin expansion despite demand headwinds (mainly China) and very low production utilization rates as new China plants ramp up. FY24 should see continued margin increase from increasing plant utilization and the ongoing Large Video" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1714550285698249205) 2023-10-18T07:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@valueplusSSI There is a 100% certainty that this remains a dumpster fire. But markets can be slow to react particularly on big news events. Should good news be reported (not certain) AND the price reaction is not reflective then this might be an interesting trade 👍" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1714605395413467523) 2023-10-18T11:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Maui Land & Pineapple $MLP is a very interesting recent pitch on VIC which reminded me of St. Joe $JOE; I'm a big fan of JOE (which btw is down 20% since reaching a top in July after very strong earnings momentum) so I'm clearly biased here. Both still have multi-bagger potential imo. The pitch is simple. $MLP owns a lot of land in Maui (roughly 22k acres) much of which is beautiful land with plenty of development potential. MLP has so far been relatively quiet to the market but that is anticipated to change over the short term. And as MLP moves into its developing phase and starts to realize" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1714639221053366511) 2023-10-18T13:47Z 17.7K followers, [----] engagements "Nuvation $NUVB is a busted biotech SPAC with $600m net cash on balance sheet trading at a market cap of $260m. The company is currently pursuing its last trials. If these are a success the stock could have some interesting upside. Otherwise $NUVB could become a cash-distribution play. This should play out over the next [--] months or so. Also there's been some BIG insider buying recently" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1715045490079748417) 2023-10-19T16:41Z [----] followers, 12.5K engagements "I've kept an eye on Ardagh Metal Packaging $AMBP since it's 'listing' in [----]. I liked the proposition but was not convinced given the relatively high leverage. Given my current focus on levered companies with good CF generation👇 and de strong de-rating AMBP has recently crept up the watchlist as I believe there could be significant upside. $AMBP is a levered aluminum can producer listed in [----] via a SPAC. Ardagh operates in a very consolidated industry (roughly [--] companies control most of the market). The company is close to completing its large capex plan and is projecting positive free" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1715371206356898013) 2023-10-20T14:15Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements "Cab Payments $CABP is an interesting company that was recently highlighted on the blog. Cab listed in July but the shares are down 30% since. This is a classic broken-IPO in a bad market providing a potentially interesting opportunity given continued strong growth ahead and very reasonable valuation. Cab provides through its subsidiaries B2B cross-border payments and foreign exchange solutions across emerging markets (mainly Africa). The payment and FX solutions providing assets are hidden within a dusty old UK bank masking the true growth potential of the assets. Besides a potential recovery" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1716427652288979448) 2023-10-23T12:13Z [----] followers, 12.8K engagements "Ouch. Nasty results from FMC $FMC guiding down guidance and announcing a restructuring. And this comes after fighting a recent short report" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1716449339583676872) 2023-10-23T13:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Solid deal from Kingsway Financial Services $KFS. With a much simplified capital structure and run-rate ebitda 20m growing 30%+ $FKS is very attractively valued after the recent pull-back" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1716495604602564923) 2023-10-23T16:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "WP Carey $WPC will spin-off [--] office properties into Net Lease Office Properties $NLOP. NLOP will begin trading on [--] November (1 NLOP shares for every [--] WPC shares). WPC results on [--] November shares down 20% over the past few months" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1716815067231186973) 2023-10-24T13:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I recently added to my (already) top [--] positions ADF Group $DRX and Daktronics $DAKT. Both stocks continue to exhibit impressive relative strength particularly in this (small cap) market. You can check out the blog for an outline of both business cases" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1716876922687533451) 2023-10-24T17:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Massive reaction after the Worldline $WLN $WRDLY results with shares dropping 50%. Shares now at all-time lows. WLN basically adjusted all targets downwards. Merchant services was impacted by macro slowdown in Germany while no improvements expected for financial services and mobility & e-transactional services. Expect BIG cuts for [----]. Putting WLN on the watchlist here as sector continues to get slaughtered" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1717093929395335596) 2023-10-25T08:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Here's a few interesting investor letters that I recently read from funds that are doing well so far this year: Alluvial Capital @alluvialcapital Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv Rowan Street Capital @RowanStreetCap Cedar Creek Partners @eriksen_tim Gator Capital Management @gatorcapital RV Capital (rvcapital .ch) Oakmark Select Fund @HarrisOakmark LRT Capital Management @tomicki Praetorian Capital @hkuppy Black Bear Value Partners (blackbearfund .com) Patient Capital Management @PatientCM Pernas Research (pernasresearch .com) Longleaf Partners Fund (southeasternasset .com) Vulcan Value" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1717202825405440407) 2023-10-25T15:33Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements "Kingsway FS $KFS saving the day. Nice share price movement after last weeks clean up trade removing the index fund seller from pressuring the stock. The shares look attractive particularly if more acquisitions like the recent ones are closed" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1717261437284888691) 2023-10-25T19:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A nice little company that I regularly check on to assess the state of its end-markets is Lectra $LSS. Lectra is an equipment manufacturer and service provider mainly exposed to the (high-end) fashion automotive and furniture industries. Their order book earnings dynamics and mgt comments generally provide a great outlook into the state of these relatively large markets. Needless to say Lectra's business is suffering at the moment. Orders fell sharply in Q3 (-26% y/y) with investment decisions being delayed by clients. This concerns all of Lectras markets including luxury goods which had been" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1717449518495461449) 2023-10-26T07:54Z 12.7K followers, [----] engagements "ArcBest $ARCB reports tomorrow and I'll be keeping an eye on this company. ArcBest is one of the largest (#6) less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers. The industry is currently in a cyclical downturn which could turn at some point. As with all cyclicals it could get worse before it gets better though volumes have already been declining for some time while truck load pricing is about 50% off the 2021-2022 peak. Besides an eventual turn of the market another interesting catalyst is the recent bankruptcy of the large competitor Yellow (YELLQ US). Given the unionized structure of the company ArcBest" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1717518715334320300) 2023-10-26T12:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Why is Bel Fuse $BELFB so cheap Even after today's move the stock is just back to the levels of a few weeks ago and still 5x ev/ebitda with peers trading (much) higher. The company is on track for $100m ebitda this year which looks sustainable imo. Mgt increasingly focused on costs which should sustain / increase margins bringing them closer to peers. Net cash b/s. Great operating leverage should the business continue to grow. Looks too cheap. What am I missing" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1717575713488880120) 2023-10-26T16:15Z [----] followers, 16.9K engagements "I believe a very interesting sector at the moment. Cycle low has been much more pronounced than what companies where expecting + China of course causing a double whammy (low Chinese demand + Asian producers dumping in Europe and US). Visibility remains low but this remains a cyclical business. Will continue to share what I hear / learn from the companies" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1717807538035462477) 2023-10-27T07:36Z 12.2K followers, [---] engagements "Kingsway Financial Services $KFS today announced another acquisition of an asset light recurring revenue business. This one will add 10% to the run-rate ebitda. $KFS is on a roll lately; this is the third acquisition in just a few months adding c.20% to ebitda. The model seems to be working ✅; KFS now has $20m run-rate ebitda (at a pretty high visibility) growing 30%+ a clean b/s all at 10x ev/ebitda. Cheap" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1717892419868348589) 2023-10-27T13:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Ill put it on the watchlist and buy it when its down 20-30% is something that Ive heard today and again for almost two decades. Of course investors almost never do IF the stock in question indeed pulls back. In [----] Joel Greenblatt wrote about a study on the best-performing fund for the period [----] to [----]. The fund was up 18% a year during this period while the market was flat. In contrast the average investor in that fund went in and out (at the wrong times) and lost 11% per year (). In addition he shared other interesting statistics: 97% of the top-quartile managers for that decade spent" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1718194633816015023) 2023-10-28T09:14Z [----] followers, 15.3K engagements "In case you missed it we recently published Toffcap's Monday Monitor #13 👇 our overview of interesting event-driven trades and companies. Check it out; link in bio. $AEDAS $MAL $SDZ $BELFB $RNO $XPEL $RAIN $NNDM $OSTK $SODI $MICR $WCG $EML $CGM $SW $NEXI $ETWO $NGMS $ACI $IRBT $WLN $PII $FLEX $ETS $LIAN $MRTX $NTRS $ORC $LOPE $VSTA $TLNE $YELLQ $SAVE $ALLFG $HHH $BB $WDC $PRTYQ" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1719340340425916460) 2023-10-31T13:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I've written quite a bit about my focus lately on certain companies in the chemicals space. Which other sectors/industries are so beaten up that they might perform well next year even if the economy does not" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1719380212993966576) 2023-10-31T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@LingmerthStefan Any interesting companies you're looking at" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1719383214916014263) 2023-10-31T15:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Question. You all probably heard the great Charlie Munger on @AcquiredFM regarding finding great investments: it was never easy but its much harder now. What do you think Ive been at it for [--] decades now and imo it has actually become easier" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1719430107389952165) 2023-10-31T19:04Z [----] followers, 10.5K engagements "Despite being down 30% since the spin green hydrogen company Thyssenkrupp Nucera $NCH2 is still trading at market cap of c. EUR 1.8bn or roughly 20x 2027e price / fairy tale earnings" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1719682964366278955) 2023-11-01T11:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Wut Any views on Zenvia $ZENV" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1719737997027913917) 2023-11-01T15:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Boring stable little/no growth crappy product company BIC $BB has been executing pretty well on its 'Horizon' restructuring plan. Revenue growth picked up quite a bit since and now the focus is on margin expansion. FCF generation should grow to 220m pa as of FY24. That'll bring BIC's EV to 2.8bn assuming zero growth and 8% discount rate compared to 2.5bn today. Any growth continues to be basically 'free'. But wait isn't this company going to zero given their crappy lighters/razors Bet you we will continue to hear this over the next decade (as we have over the past decade.)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1720370345440342410) 2023-11-03T09:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@danielsharriman $SHC $META @javsfz $SAN $AMZN @optimist_fund $UBER $CVNA @HrtmnMax $GOOG $SPOT @fahi8587 $AMZN $PHO" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1720446881732387048) 2023-11-03T14:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I've written 👆 about my focus on companies / sectors with relatively high leverage and good fcf generation. Many (levered) sectors are pressured given the current yield environment which provides an opportunity as quality companies are punished. One such little gem is $AEDAS" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1720789998549561588) 2023-11-04T13:08Z 17.8K followers, [----] engagements "Telecom Italia $TIT.IM to sell its NetCo network to KKR for 18.8bn in a deal that will not be subject to a vote by shareholders; Vivendi $VIV (holding c. 24%) clearly not amused (to put it mildly). Overall the deal is 10x EBITDAaL before earn-outs (12x after earn-outs) much better than $TIT.IM's current multiples + net debt (ex leases) could be reduced by 14bn to 1.8x EBITDAaL. Are we finally going to see Vivendi $VIV rationalize its asset portfolio and realize (part of) its big holdco discount (80% upside) The Vivendi story is well-known; for those not familiar with the case $VIV is a French" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1721440368858652784) 2023-11-06T08:12Z 15K followers, [----] engagements "Pro-Dex $PDEX is a very interesting micro-cap with a lot going on. There are several dynamics that seem to be strongly accelerating earnings growth going forward. Insiders own 40%. PDEX produces and distributes medical and dental devices. Its main product is a device used by doctors to attach implants to the bone with precision. The company recently finished a big expansion program where it doubled its manufacturing space. It took some time but the project now seems complete. At almost the same time $PDEX announced a doubling of its order backlog. So growing order backlog + plenty of capacity" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1721901567052558458) 2023-11-07T14:44Z 12.8K followers, [----] engagements "I'm happy to announce a new segment on the blog: the Quick Read. The first one is on Adyen which will hold its capital markets day tomorrow. Enjoy (link in bio) $ADYEN $ADYEY" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1721949867944169656) 2023-11-07T17:56Z [----] followers, 13.4K engagements "Another 🔥 quarter for Inpost $INPST despite poor September volumes. Q4 looks to be great👌 - Parcel volumes +18% yoy in Q3 [--] - Revenues +22% - great pricing. Expect more in Q4 - ebitda margin +4pp to 30.9% - Group CFO PLN 655m in Q3 [--] +91% yoy() - UK now ebitda profitable Keep in mind that the backdrop is a challenging parcel environment. Inpost is on a roll and will continue. 10x ev/ebitda on FY23 (keep IFRS [--] in mind) very cheap for this long-term growth story" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1722539311860457634) 2023-11-09T08:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Ackman still loading up on Howard Hughes $HHH adding 655k shares since this tweet" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1722673479416250394) 2023-11-09T17:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Neogames $NGMS. Merger arb. Signed merger agreement with Aristocrat ($29.5 p/s). 16% deal spread for 20-30% IRR in [--] months. Old VIC write-up for background here" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1722978088940605595) 2023-11-10T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Albertson $ACI. Merger arb. Great notes from Andrew Walker on a few merger arbitrage / antitrust special sits (incl. old TMM favorite SAVE). The first is Albertson getting acquired by Kroger; see post. H/t @AndrewRangeley for the idea" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1722978093168509374) 2023-11-10T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Talen Energy $TLNE filed to uplist to a major exchange. Recently exited bankruptcy and trading OTC. No coverage yet. Announced a $300m buyback (10% of market cap). Still a few catalysts ahead (uplisting no coverage yet buybacks)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1722978099074117687) 2023-11-10T14:02Z 18.1K followers, [----] engagements "I recently published the second Quick Read discussing Adyen $ADYEN and Basic-Fit $BFIT 👇. Thanks for all the appreciative messages 👍" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1723684358945456277) 2023-11-12T12:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A few takes from Diageo's $DGE Capital Markets Day 👇 for those interested in a high-quality company currently facing some headwinds. Diageos presentations mainly revolved around its approach to different spirits market categories the base of its the growth strategy. The focus is on strengthening the foothold in existing categories like pushing tequila in Southern Europe and maximizing whisky potential in the US and riding the wave of new trends like non-alcoholic spirits and RTDs. Management laid out a convincing growth plan targeting a +5-7% growth driven by volume increases price/mix" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1725439386697839012) 2023-11-17T09:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "PetMed Express $PETS. Decent insider purchases in this online pet pharmacy. Stock clobbered ytd; net cash b/s (about 1/3 of market cap) 17% dividend yield (if sustainable). Might be interesting to keep an eye out" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1726330644127719678) 2023-11-19T20:04Z 17K followers, [----] engagements "Friends can someone pls point me to a thread that explains this whole OpenAI mess This is so out of my focus area but I'm really intrigued. 🙏" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1726683323584667719) 2023-11-20T19:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "FTC Solar $FTCI is a (very) speculative micro-cap. The stock suffered a lot recently following poor results (residential solar weakness and uncertainty around IRA related subsidy/tax credit information) management changes and overall poor sentiment in the cleantech sector. FTC has a $75m market cap and $30m in net cash on the balance sheet and a total backlog of $1.6bn. IF $FTCI survives and the backlog comes through (even a bit) the stock could have multi-bagger potential. Also there's a reasonable case to be made for a sale" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1727030928151638331) 2023-11-21T18:27Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "For those interested I tuned into Bayer's $BAYN call which followed the disappointing update on asundexian. Some comments 👇 First off the CEO doesn't see strategic options changing despite the setback from the halt of the OCEANIC-AF program. The balance sheet might feel the squeeze without the expected sales boost but the CEO seems to hint at needing a more stable business outlook for any major spin-offs. Cropscience is facing a bit of a storm think headwinds in seed mix overflowing crop protection inventories driving down prices and the recent glyphosate court losses (which the CFO vows to" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1727037329309581368) 2023-11-21T18:52Z [----] followers, 18.1K engagements "According to Adidas $ADS the Chinese consumer is on its way back. Adidas also seems to start to reap the benefits of its investments in sports partnerships grassroots events and products. They're tweaking their strategy in the region as well. Historically adidas leaned heavily on pre-orders but now they're shifting gears towards more re-orders. This change is largely thanks to a significant uptick in local sourcing. On the Yeezy situation. Management confirmed that they've sold 200m of Yeezy inventory. $ADS still holds 300m worth of Yeezy goods" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1727244114855333967) 2023-11-22T08:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Stellantis $STLAM $STLA yesterday evening announced it acquired 50m shares (1.58% of its capital) from Dongfeng for 934m planning to cancel these shares. This was part of a deal from last July where Stellantis got the green light to buy the shares at a pre-agreed price (18.68 per share this time around). Post this transaction Dongfeng's still holding onto 49.2m shares but their slice of the Stellantis pie has shrunk to 1.58% post-cancellation. Stellantis confirmed the deal wont affect their 1.5bn open-market buy-back program set to wrap up by year-end. $STLA upped their dividend payout to 25%" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1727700417373495516) 2023-11-23T14:47Z 18.1K followers, 31.6K engagements "@puppyeh1 Pls dont post pictures of my car Jeremy" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1727939497659113583) 2023-11-24T06:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements ""It's too early at the moment imo but it's getting there" was my conclusion on Lectra $LSS. I think that comment hit the bottom. A nice little company that I regularly check on to assess the state of its end-markets is Lectra $LSS. Lectra is an equipment manufacturer and service provider mainly exposed to the (high-end) fashion automotive and furniture industries. Their order book earnings dynamics and https://t.co/DlYQjpRkaZ A nice little company that I regularly check on to assess the state of its end-markets is Lectra $LSS. Lectra is an equipment manufacturer and service provider mainly" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1728005666172751939) 2023-11-24T11:00Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements "Is anyone deep in the know on Zynex $ZYXI This screens like a very interesting investment with multi-bagger potential. Zynex is reviewing strategic alternatives has a strong b/s (net cash) a new $20m buy-back in place (c. 7% of market cap) and has healthy cash flow generation. CEO seems a bit of a character but owns 40%. If Bloomberg consensus is anywhere near correct $ZYXI is trading at 12x ev/ebitda on 2023e for 50% ebitda cagr over the next few years. Mgt has ambitious targets to grow revenues to "$800m over the next few years with a strong bottom line" from $200m currently. Appreciate all" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1728422908492390539) 2023-11-25T14:38Z [----] followers, 13K engagements "Why do I still see (a lot) of sell side reports concluding that the shares are undervalued based on a comparison of current multiples vs the 5/10y average. Is it laziness or ignorance (or both)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1728463959571759403) 2023-11-25T17:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "EOS Energy $EOSE is still around I had no idea. This was a (very) successful trade with the warrants back in late [----]. There are good returns to be made when different hypes align - in this case ESG and SPACs. Check out the old blog posts if interested" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1728499547549098250) 2023-11-25T19:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Still working through this list of Polish gems 👇. Any comments additions companies that should be prioritised etc Inpost $INSPT Mercor $MCR.WA Livechat Software $LVC.WA Dino Polska $DNP.WA Synektik $SNT.WA Tarczynski $TAR.WA Eurotel $ETL.WA Debica $DPC.WA Monnari Trade $MON.WA Sygnity $SGN.WA Oponeo $OPN.WA Grupa Pracuj $GPP.WA Warsaw Stock Exchange $GPW.WA Eurosnack $ECK.WA Spyrosoft $SPR.WA Wittchen $WTN.WA Asseco $ASE.WA Ifirma $IFI.WA Ambra $AMB.WA Digital Network $DIG.WA Mobruk $MBR.WA Pepco $PCO.AW Auto Partner $APR.WA Aplisens $APL.WA" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1728792567553146970) 2023-11-26T15:07Z [----] followers, 29.4K engagements "I'm hearing rumors that $AEDAS management recently met with its largest shareholder to discuss potential take-out scenarios. Only speculation at this point but would not be surprised. Check out 👇 for a recent thread on Aedas Homes. New position: Aedas Homes $AEDAS. Aedas is a Spanish developer trading at c. 50% discount to NAV 13% dividend yield and what looks promising cash flow generation given quality assets. Good chance that the company will become a target imo if the valuation remains pressured (1/n) New position: Aedas Homes $AEDAS. Aedas is a Spanish developer trading at c. 50%" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1728843830617903127) 2023-11-26T18:31Z 17.8K followers, [----] engagements "If you missed this according to a Betaville 'uncooked alert' (i.e. a gossip) Worldline $WLN attracted takeover interest from a large European PE (probably CVC). As discussed in the past this shouldn't come as a surprise (at all). $WLN is trading at 6x ev/ebitda on FY23e. This compares to eg 8x for Ingenico 13x Network International $NETW (also CVC). To note is also CVC's interest in $NEXI" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1729052382070255680) 2023-11-27T08:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "InPost $INPST is just getting started. CEO Brzoska "seeing increasing international market share and aims to strengthen its position in key markets further."" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1729101523899351377) 2023-11-27T11:35Z [----] followers, 13.1K engagements "@capitaloptimism 😂 💯" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1729549228844646885) 2023-11-28T17:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Youve probably already seen this. But here 1000+ pages from Charlie Munger 👌 courtesy of @maxolson" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1729756583498793037) 2023-11-29T06:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We took a brief brake but next week we'll be publishing the next Toffcap Monday Monitor our overview of interesting event-driven trades and companies. A lot is going on yet again with many interesting opportunities👍. Stay tuned" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1729856486678130866) 2023-11-29T13:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I tuned into Novartis' $NOVN recent R&D Day. Novartis is one of a few large cap companies that are part of my 'safety bucket' that I keep assessed. A few notes. Novartis stepped up its game revising its medium-term revenue growth forecast from 4% to 5% annually through [----]. This new outlook is backed by solid performance of their flagship products and the potential of upcoming launches like iptacopan and remibrutinib. $NOVN is targeting a core ebit margin of 40% by [----] mainly by reducing sales and general administrative expenses implying HSD% core ebit cagr - above BB cons. Novartis seems" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1730237040183161009) 2023-11-30T14:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We published a new Quick Read discussing InPost $INPST and eDreams $EDR 👍 Check it out (link in bio) The more work I do on InPost $INPST (EUR 5.3bn market cap) the better the story becomes. I believe there is still multi-bagger potential left here. InPost is a Polish operator of Automated Parcel Machine lockers listed in Amsterdam. It's a rather unique and high-growing https://t.co/W4QeB6qLnH The more work I do on InPost $INPST (EUR 5.3bn market cap) the better the story becomes. I believe there is still multi-bagger potential left here. InPost is a Polish operator of Automated Parcel" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1730293022577852705) 2023-11-30T18:29Z 18K followers, [----] engagements "We recently published a new Quick Read on two very interesting cases InPost $INPST and eDreams $EDR 👍 Check it out (link in bio) ✅ The more work I do on InPost $INPST (EUR 5.3bn market cap) the better the story becomes. I believe there is still multi-bagger potential left here. InPost is a Polish operator of Automated Parcel Machine lockers listed in Amsterdam. It's a rather unique and high-growing https://t.co/W4QeB6qLnH The more work I do on InPost $INPST (EUR 5.3bn market cap) the better the story becomes. I believe there is still multi-bagger potential left here. InPost is a Polish" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1730561129712365624) 2023-12-01T12:15Z 17.8K followers, [----] engagements "Yellow corp $YELLQ HUGE news for Yellow Corporation shareholders. Auction results came in 400mm above stalking horse bid. By our calculations shareholder recovery should be around 600mm indicating more than 500% upside. $yellq (either we totally missed something or the pop on open will be https://t.co/qySfZps2B6 HUGE news for Yellow Corporation shareholders. Auction results came in 400mm above stalking horse bid. By our calculations shareholder recovery should be around 600mm indicating more than 500% upside. $yellq (either we totally missed something or the pop on open will be" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1731972091765793153) 2023-12-05T09:41Z 17.8K followers, [----] engagements "Seems still too low given the Yellow $YELLQ news but definitely not an expert on the case here. What do you think" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1732061046817402948) 2023-12-05T15:35Z 17.8K followers, [----] engagements "Friends does anyone have a view on Exail Technologies $EXA (was Groupe Gorg) Just scratching the surface here but I like the exposure to an industry which should have tailwinds over the next few years. Order book looks solid which should provide good visibility. I estimate 20% ebitda cagr over the medium-term; stock trading at c 11x 23e ev/ebitda. Quite the leverage - which I don't mind (and actually like) if visibility is relatively high. Also additional near-term upside potential from the huge Australian navy tender. Again barely scratching the surface here but I like what I see so far. I" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1732386439868916166) 2023-12-06T13:08Z 15.9K followers, [----] engagements "TUI $TUI up 13% today mainly because broken clocks are at times right. If you've followed this account a bit you'll know that I don't have any problems looking at crappy stocks; I look for value everywhere even in bad places. That said $TUI may be one of the very few companies I'll always ignore. Look at that beautiful chart below" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1732408956977299680) 2023-12-06T14:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Cambium Networks $CMBM is a developer and manufacturer of wireless broadband and Wifi networking infrastructure solutions. The company operates is a generally rather poor industry; heavily cyclical and quickly commoditized. Indeed $CMBM shares have massively derated over the past year reflecting poor operating performance. Nonetheless we appear to be on the cusp of a big up-cycle. There are going to be massive investments in networking infrastructure over the coming years. The BEAD program alone is $40bn the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund is another $20bn; and Cambium stands to benefit." [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1732430191304020357) 2023-12-06T16:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Ah a good ol case of someone knows something. (ADF $DRX reports tomorrow)" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1732471888905904323) 2023-12-06T18:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "My all-time favorite listed company Games Workshop $GAW is out with its H1 trading update. After a very strong Q1 Q2 seems to have been (much) slower most probably due to a fading impact from the latest Warhammer 40k release as well as lower licensing revenues. Shares are down 10% on the results which just happens from time to time with this business $GAW. No position here (stock bit too expensive for my taste) but still plenty of admiration for this company ✅👌" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1732690264957780392) 2023-12-07T09:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "eDreams $EDR continues to polarize the market with its performance. The choices appear to either love it or stay the hell away. Results of a few weeks ago where top-notch yet again with strong growth in cash ebitda. Cash ebitda has now grown from roughly 11m in Q4 [--] to 34m in the latest quarter. Prime subscribers shot up from 3.6m to 5.1m in just a year a 42% jump (target of 7.25m by March '25 - translating into 180m cash ebitda). More impressively the slice of marginal cash profit from Prime increased from 54% to 64% yoy. This growth is translating into serious cash flow. Net financial debt" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1733816702259929108) 2023-12-10T11:51Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements "Gaming Innovation Group $GIGSEK is a fast growing company with (relatively) high-quality operations trading at an attractive valuation which piqued our interest. The company has strong tailwinds from a rapidly growing market should be able to continue to expand margins and has a solid management team in place. Earnings visibility is relatively high which is not reflected in the valuation. The company operates two segments Media and Platform / Sports. Media already has very strong ebitda margins and a high FCF conversion rate. Platform / Sports is a B2B platform servicing online casino and" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1735360352806686964) 2023-12-14T18:05Z 18.1K followers, 54.7K engagements "Will be providing a few comments on ADF Group $DRX next week. This company is firing on all cylinders and theres more to come. Yes I know isnt this a very cyclical business; wont business normalise etc. Well look at that too. Theres always risk but this companys outlook is as strong as ever" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1735381589939433818) 2023-12-14T19:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Continued strong growth ahead for InPost $INPST in [----] with strong expansion of its International APM network planned. The UK and France will add 3k parcel lockers each Poland 2k and another 1k each in Italy and Spain for a total of 10k parcel lockers - a huge amount. $INPST is turbocharging growth. This company is so aggressive in such a sleepy market many legacy players will be shocked imo at how the market will look like in [--] years. I already mentioned that the more I look into InPost $INPST the more impressed I become of its potential. A few notes 👇on the UK opportunity which is now" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1736377618344063116) 2023-12-17T13:27Z 18.1K followers, 11.7K engagements "We discussed Zynex $ZYXI before and remain fascinated by this weird company. Zynex is a VERY speculative opportunity; definitely NOT a high-quality company but that's what makes it interesting. $ZYXI is a (low-quality) med-tech company selling electro therapy products for muscle stimulations inferential and TENS devices. To be honest we have big doubts if what the company is doing is sustainable i.c. getting reimbursed (a lot) for what appears to be commodity products (80% of revenues appear to be batteries and related supplies that are offered at much lower prices at retail). One might call" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1737154371014602898) 2023-12-19T16:54Z 17.7K followers, [----] engagements "Ok friends were moving deep into the Extreme Greed zone. What is your plan sell it all have a vacation dont know dont care double down Let me know 👇" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1737229856797036691) 2023-12-19T21:54Z [----] followers, 16K engagements "@ClarkSquareCap 🔥 🔥" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1737230191443804445) 2023-12-19T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Liquidia $LQDA soaring after winning its patent dispute with United Therapeutics $UTHR. Not involved in this case but patent dispute wins/losses tend to be BIG deals in pharma in my experience; share price reaction 'feels' a bit muted. Again not involved but any opinions" [X Link](https://x.com/ToffCap/status/1737529798077960352) 2023-12-20T17:46Z 12.8K followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@ToffCap ToffCap
ToffCap posts on X about market cap, strong, stocks, cash flow the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
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Social Influence
Social category influence finance stocks cryptocurrencies countries currencies technology brands automotive brands exchanges travel destinations luxury brands
Social topic influence market cap, strong, stocks, cash flow, has been, debt, in the, $drx, investment, $moly
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @clarksquarecap @evfcfaddict @hkuppy @alexeliasson @roojoo3 @joinyellowbrick @1maincapital @kingdomcapadv @davidkatunaric @mikefritzell @investspecial @lordofbiotech @olvehe @ataicapital @puppyeh1 @alluvialcapital @marketplunger1 @acerivercapital @pernasresearch @capitaloptimism
Top assets mentioned DRX Token (DRX) Endeavor Group Holdings, Inc. (EDR) TALEN ENERGY CORP (DE) (TLN) FC Barcelona Fan Token (BAR) Validity (VAL) Telefonica Brasil, S.A. American Depositary Shares (Each representing One Common Share) (VIV) Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) Forward Air Corp (FWRD) American Electric Power Company Inc (AEP) Lossless (LSS) Stellar (XLM) Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD) Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE) Burford Capital Limited (BUR)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"GMO Payment Gateway $3769 is a Japanese diversified collection of payment and internet infrastructure operations. Despite the fundamentals showing a very healthy trend over the past years the share price action has been very disappointing. Growth should remain strong over the next few years with continued healthy FCF generation. Low-teens forward ev/ebitda for what should be 20% ebitda cagr over the medium-term. Also I just appreciate very thorough slide decks. Might be interesting to keep an eye out. We highlighted GMO recently on the blog. Find it and much more at @ToffCap (no paywall)"
X Link 2025-01-08T15:02Z 19.1K followers, 22K engagements
"Crazy EPS chart from GMO Payment $3769 👇 GMO Payment Gateway $3769 is a Japanese diversified collection of payment and internet infrastructure operations. Despite the fundamentals showing a very healthy trend over the past years the share price action has been very disappointing. Growth should remain strong over https://t.co/hF2ek6irDf GMO Payment Gateway $3769 is a Japanese diversified collection of payment and internet infrastructure operations. Despite the fundamentals showing a very healthy trend over the past years the share price action has been very disappointing. Growth should remain"
X Link 2025-01-09T15:22Z 19.1K followers, [----] engagements
"We're out with a new TMM a list of interesting investments and event-driven trades that we regularly find. This week quite a few on the event-driven side. Check it out 🔥 $BKHT $CNS $APN $VEEE / $FRZA $EDR $AZE $LICT $TKA $DHR $WDC $PMV $777 $HHH $FUTR $CHGG $SDRL $MEIP $FWRD $FTRE $LEE $ABP $BCTX $SOLB $CBD $NOVN $TOPS https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698679818567496062 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698679818567496062"
X Link 2023-09-04T12:50Z 19.1K followers, 25.2K engagements
"There will be an opportunity to make a ton of 💰 amidst the chaos in car land. Alarming situation 2-3 years left to save the brand - Volkswagen $VOW management. Similar tone at Renault $RNO Mercedes $MBG and plenty of other large brands. Overcapacity (Chinese) competition uneconomical plants breaking of the EV mirage consumer pressure green ideologies etc etc. A LOT of headwinds are hitting this market which has been driven by uneconomical ideologies paid with zero interest rates for years. Im doing the works. I want to be ready"
X Link 2024-09-08T17:00Z 19.1K followers, 13.8K engagements
"Another timely flag from our Toffcap Monday Monitor our overview of interesting event-driven trades. $AXL to acquire Dowlais $DWL for $1.44bn. .though this feels a bit like a steal. Dowlais $DWL has not exactly been a success since its spin-off from Melrose $MRO. But while the stock is down almost 40% since the shares seem to have found a bottom and are rebounding. The company is very active in the market with its GBP50m buyback. Operating earnings https://t.co/efiajzN7fB Dowlais $DWL has not exactly been a success since its spin-off from Melrose $MRO. But while the stock is down almost 40%"
X Link 2025-01-29T13:17Z 19.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Skyworks Solutions $SWKS recently announced a $2bn buyback 20% of the current market cap. This one has been under a lot of pressure lately as growth is slowing much more rapidly than anticipated. Skyworks warned that there's going to be quite a bit less of their product in Apple's next iPhone cycle (the company's largest customer). Lots of board changes also. Basically a mess. But. you know we like to keep messes on the watchlist. There's a price for everything and these kind of setbacks might present interesting opportunities as they get dumped. Always appreciate any views. We highlighted"
X Link 2025-02-14T14:04Z 19.1K followers, [----] engagements
"This is what we have so far your favorite companies👇 Laurent-Perrier $LPE Dior $CDI Groupe Guillin $ALGIL Safran $SAF Pluxee $PLX DLSI $ALDLS TFF $TFF Robertet $RBT Getlink $GET Vicat $VCT Vusion $VU Arcure $ALCUR Virbac $VIRP Gerard Perrier $PERR Tarkett $TKTT Total $TTE Carrefour $CA I'll see what I can do 👍 Traveling to France this week to visit a few companies a.o. good old Lectra $LSS. Any favorite French companies on your list Traveling to France this week to visit a few companies a.o. good old Lectra $LSS. Any favorite French companies on your list"
X Link 2024-04-17T12:17Z 19.1K followers, 19.4K engagements
"Out with TMM #68 our weekly overview of actionable event-driven and special sits 🔥🔥 This week: - SOTP unlocks with catalysts - an Amer Sports [---] - transformational deals not yet recognized in the price - a low p/e company growing rapidly with a ton of cash on the b/s and an upcoming spin of a sub which makes it all more fascinating - potentially juicy tender offers - some very speculative pico-caps where a lot is going on - . and much more. As always @ToffCap. Enjoy https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1962486345248682079 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1962486345248682079"
X Link 2025-09-01T12:03Z 19.1K followers, 20.7K engagements
"It seems $LOAK is starting to get noticed. Shares are up +10% since last week and warrants +31%. Be careful things can move fast (both ways) in spac-land. https://toffcap.com/loak-danimer/ https://toffcap.com/loak-danimer/"
X Link 2020-10-18T09:22Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
".Case in point: I like $ALLT where a lot is going on. but $CYR is (already) more profitable growing faster and visibility is okay given the Orange contract ramp up. Yes it will probably need to raise cash but does that justify the MASSIVE valuation diff (No it doesnt.)"
X Link 2020-10-22T07:45Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"Just wanted to remind people this. Thesis is playing out really well fast. $BMRG closed (now $EOSE) and 🚀. Now $PIC and $LOAK. Full disclosure long warrants"
X Link 2020-11-29T11:02Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"I basically look to answer the question how easy is this story to sell to institutional investors. And most importantly I want asymmetry; hence spac-warrants. I assume that warrants go zo zero in the worst case but the base case generally is $6.5 (forced conversion)"
X Link 2020-12-03T16:51Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"On this base I initiated a few positions over the past months two of which are $EOSE (was $BMRG) and $LOAK warrants (again pls refer to for background). $EOSE warrants are now +199% since purchase ($1.24) and $LOAK warrants +130% ($1.8). So far so good http://toffcap.com http://toffcap.com"
X Link 2020-12-03T16:51Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
".and the share price halved() this year. Meanwhile [----] ebitda is expected at [----] levels. But the exciting part is the growth. $CYR was able to close several MAJOR contracts one of which is with Orange (French Telco)"
X Link 2020-12-09T16:57Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"Based on these (long-term very sticky) contracts $CYR should be able to reach EUR40m ebitda by [----] which will continue to grow with 30% CAGR thereafter. In addition a new CEO is there to boost growth"
X Link 2020-12-09T16:57Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"2. Guidance for 2021(): "solid growth in revenues and earnings in the clear double digit % range". So [----] was not a one off and big chance that $UMDK's growth this year was from longer term contracts that have been signed"
X Link 2020-12-11T15:03Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"3. $UMDK specifically addressed lack of communication and bad ir; asked for patience and reiterated that they are working towards improvements (IFRS and uplisting in 2022)"
X Link 2020-12-11T15:03Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"4. $UMDK is working on a dividend policy () though nothing decided so far"
X Link 2020-12-11T15:03Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"European sustainable fund assets surpassed US$1 trillion for the first time Again Europe still counts for the vast majority of assets in sustainable funds. I keep repeating that if you think were reaching a top in the US theres still plenty of room to go"
X Link 2020-12-21T20:56Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"Fund flows trump everything. $LOAK $EOSE $PIC (exited) $ROCH $CFII"
X Link 2020-12-21T20:56Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"Just exited my position in $LOAK warrants. Things are moving very fast here (though Im not complaining). With warrants comfortably [---] my target price has been reached"
X Link 2020-12-28T18:29Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"$HEX still owns 75% of $HPUR. This is currently basically the entire market cap of $HEX () while $HPUR only constituted 10% of $HEX revenues. So one can still play $HPUR via $HEX. The main thing to keep an eye on is $HPURs share price. (Discl long $HEX)"
X Link 2021-01-15T09:56Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"I find it absolutely stunning what Powerband is doing. How often do you see such transparency re financials with micro-caps Generally its the other way around - a lack of transparency. I read this simply as confidence in the model + 'hurry' to get that price up. $PBX $PWWBF"
X Link 2021-03-08T16:03Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"@CapitalShipyard In between I would say. Co. they bought had very respectable margins for being a completely analog one. $UMDK's main problem remains. very very bad at communicating"
X Link 2022-04-12T11:25Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"Good ol' UMT $UMDK. How do you not know if you own a subsidiary https://umt.ag/en/umt-united-mobility-technology-ag-legal-action-and-application-for-preliminary-injunction-against-kb-holding-gmbh-buchberger-baugeraete-handel-gmbh-and-buchberger-baumaschinen-service-vermietung-g/ https://umt.ag/en/umt-united-mobility-technology-ag-legal-action-and-application-for-preliminary-injunction-against-kb-holding-gmbh-buchberger-baugeraete-handel-gmbh-and-buchberger-baumaschinen-service-vermietung-g/"
X Link 2022-10-26T13:38Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"125mn fee to throw out the garbage $BMPS (eighth. capital. increase. in. [--]. years.) #blackhole #justletitdie #oldestturdintheworld https://www.ft.com/content/a3d8d289-9ea9-40c0-a798-6ed843f1d0c1 https://www.ft.com/content/a3d8d289-9ea9-40c0-a798-6ed843f1d0c1"
X Link 2022-10-27T12:21Z 18.1K followers, [--] engagements
"So UMT a EUR 11m market cap company has about EUR 21m NET cash over 1H22 and potentially another EUR 6.5m incoming as working capital reverses in H2. .so many questions. $UMDK"
X Link 2022-10-27T15:31Z 17.8K followers, [--] engagements
"Meanwhile AEP hitting 5y-highs. Nice little company; good mgt organic growth accretive acquisitions financial discipline and attractive valuation (3x LTM ev/ebitda). $AEP $AEP.V"
X Link 2022-12-15T07:59Z 13.7K followers, [--] engagements
"As always this is no advice do you own due diligence. Enjoy $UMDK @MicroCapClub"
X Link 2023-01-04T15:37Z 17.8K followers, [---] engagements
"Another +25% today. MotorK $MTRK $MTRK.AS h/t tweets-that-aged-well https://t.co/lHNURbobX1 h/t tweets-that-aged-well https://t.co/lHNURbobX1"
X Link 2023-02-07T15:05Z 17.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Another good day for MotorK $MTRK. +100% since this tweet. I'm not a technical analyst - far from it - but every time I see a chart like this I become REALLY interested. Straight lie down final dump and flat even as bad news continues https://t.co/1ZnwNeD44N I'm not a technical analyst - far from it - but every time I see a chart like this I become REALLY interested. Straight lie down final dump and flat even as bad news continues https://t.co/1ZnwNeD44N"
X Link 2023-02-16T11:42Z 17.2K followers, [---] engagements
"As a reminder UMT is a micro-cap currently trading at roughly 2x FCF with a net cash & cash equivalents balance of c. 16m (my estimate 2022e pro-forma MEXS acquisition in cash) - or roughly its entire market cap. $UMDK has plenty of potential but mgt needs to take serious steps to improve disclosures. A sign of life from UMT $UMDK. The company put out a press release (in classic UMT-cryptic fashion) stating they are progressing with 'project Sunrise'. However the most interesting part of the news is that UMT appears close to new acquisitions: https://t.co/azBb75Op2y https://t.co/I91WFMGWw8 A"
X Link 2023-04-25T10:40Z 17.8K followers, 14.5K engagements
"Unfortunately (for us) $EPSIL was a bit more than a [--] bagger. We did a very tedious and manual screening exercise on a clients request back then looking at every () listed nano-cap (sub $15m) in Europe. Best thing client didnt even do anything with it haha. Such clients happen"
X Link 2023-05-05T14:40Z 18K followers, [---] engagements
"There are so many incredible deep value names in the oil & gas space. Case in point Unit Corp $UNTC. Unit operates two segments Unit Petroleum (production of oil and natural gas) and Unit Drilling (owns and operates [--] rigs). Unit trades at 2-2.5x '23e ev/ebitda and 25-30% FCFy"
X Link 2023-05-10T16:59Z 18.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Unit Petroleum should generate plenty of free cash flow over the foreseeable future given low decline rates and low opex. Also Unit Pet's assets were for sale about a year ago; the process was halted but could resume at more attractive prices"
X Link 2023-05-10T16:59Z 18.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Unit Drilling will profit from the strongly improved day rate environment of the onshore drilling market. Thightness seems here to stay which bodes well for rates. Operating leverage is massive in this sector and $UNTC 's Drilling operations are set to generate substantial FCF"
X Link 2023-05-10T16:59Z 18.1K followers, [---] engagements
"$UNTC has a very strong capital return policy. Unit has so far repurchased 20% of its shares paid a $10/s special dividend and installed a $2.5/s quarterly dividend (current yield of c 24%)"
X Link 2023-05-10T16:59Z 18.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Unit has a clean balance sheet (c. $110m after the spec. dividend) a very shareholder friendly capital return policy and is trading at an absurd valuation on current commodity prices. I suspect $UNTC will be taken out sooner rather than later if this imbalance persists"
X Link 2023-05-10T16:59Z 18.1K followers, [----] engagements
"TMM #2 is printed check it out. $ALFEN $PFSW $TLN $SURG $APPS $NCR $MDU $MACK $MTAL $AZE $NEXI $TRE $FRE $OUT1V"
X Link 2023-05-15T16:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"ToffCaps new Monday Monitor is out 👇 $STHO $AZE $KD $SPEC $SURG $AML $CMI $RCS $ABP $NK $ALFEN"
X Link 2023-05-22T15:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$KD will gradually reprice its contracts which will improve margins. KD seems a classic deep value play with improving fundamentals (margin improvement and debt repayment should drive share price rerating). Looks like 50-100% upside if they can pull it off"
X Link 2023-05-23T15:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Despite people's skepticism re eDreams' $EDR Prime loyalty program total subs was 4.3m at FY23 +1.7m yoy and 420k/quarter. EDR is flying (pun intended) to its '25 member targets the biggest driver for the EUR180m cash ebitda in FY25"
X Link 2023-05-25T07:44Z 17.1K followers, 12.7K engagements
"If $EDR pulls it off it'll be trading at 4-5x ev/cash ebitda (on FY25 b/s) with a VERY high level of visibility a much stronger b/s and continued strong growth ahead"
X Link 2023-06-27T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"eDreams $EDR shares turned red for the day. The valuation makes no sense and the co is very much undervalued imo. I'm becoming more and more convinced this stock has multi-bagger potential over the next 2-3 years. 1/5"
X Link 2023-06-26T12:38Z [----] followers, 10.3K engagements
"THE main criticism I found 1y ago was from people claiming that the Prime offering was bad. I'm hearing that less often depending on the country and it is also not reflected in the # of subs which continues to increase strongly q/q. now at 4.6m in May"
X Link 2023-05-25T13:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Q4 [--] cash ebitda was 27m and fcf 48m. These have steadily grown over the past quarters and will continue to do so. The one-off/subscriber transition in de p&l has passed the trough and now it will be q/q sequential growth for $EDR"
X Link 2023-06-12T04:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$EDR will generate increasingly more cash that will be used to repay debt and potentially buybacks. The cash ebitda target of EUR 180m in [----] (YE March) looks increasingly within reach"
X Link 2023-06-27T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"eDreams is trading at 4-5x ev/cash ebitda looking [--] years out. OTAs are trading for 10-15x and that's excluding the transition to a more recurring sticky subscription company. At 15-20x $EDR could be a three/four-bagger over the next few years. (as always no advice)"
X Link 2023-06-27T14:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
".debt is $ 240m. $STAR is not an opco; the plan is to monetise the assets over the medium-term (development and asset sales). Potentially 100-150% upside over medium-term"
X Link 2023-05-26T16:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"ToffCaps new Monday Monitor is out. Grab it here 👇 $ALLFG $EDR $BC $DSFIR $LFCR $HUR $NFT $SOLB $CMI $LFG $STARA"
X Link 2023-05-29T10:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"As a reminder there won't be a TMM today. We'll be back next week with an update of the watchlist with new ideas and event driven trades. Check out the blog. Companies discussed in last week's edition: $ALLFG $EDR $BC $DSFIR $STHO $LFCR $HUR $NFT $SOLB $CMI $CINE $LFG $STARA"
X Link 2023-06-05T07:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Back with a new Toffcap Monday Monitor. Check it out on the blog. $DSFIR $KTA $SOLB $ICAD $LFCR $DOG $CINE $1COV $NSI $BWA $NLTX $NCMI $CSV $TOPS"
X Link 2023-07-10T05:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$UMDK just imagine the mess he encountered. No improvements so far at UMT on the contrary just deterioration. Stock remains a call option with a pretty good chance of going nowhere for some time. @ToffCap Mr. Hupe leaves. https://t.co/JXY74qD6gz @ToffCap Mr. Hupe leaves. https://t.co/JXY74qD6gz"
X Link 2023-07-04T10:33Z 17.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@convexpotential @OndejMach5 $UMDK complete radio silence. At least the old ceo picked up the phone every now and then. UMT is so far off normal communication and strategy policy that its comical. Pretty much every scammy nano cap I ever found did at least a much better job pretending 🤷"
X Link 2023-07-07T06:52Z 17.8K followers, [---] engagements
"Firmenich on the other hand is more skilled in targeting taste and achieving specific textures. Now the $DSFIR combination is able to offer a much wider gamma of products and react more rapidly to clients demands. DSFIR will be invited to 100% of clients briefs"
X Link 2023-07-11T17:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Even more the companys earnings are now of much better quality. Exposure to commodity vitamins is vastly reduced and $DSFIR now has a top-notch Perfumery & Beauty division the likes of Givaudan $GIVN and $IFF which bring much less cyclicality to earnings"
X Link 2023-07-11T15:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$DSFIR is targeting 5-7% organic revenue growth pa over the mid-term and 22-23% ebitda margins. Based on the new structure and the benefits from the current restructuring these could very well be rather conservative targets"
X Link 2023-07-11T15:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The new DSM combines secular growth trends with lots of self-help potential a much wider revenue generation opportunity higher margins and more stable earnings. $DSFIR should command a much higher multiple vs history"
X Link 2023-07-11T15:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Despite results pretty much in line with the street Barco's $BAR share price dropped 16% yesterday on the company's silence wrt the (absence of) co-CEO Beauduin. This was after another 10% drop in June for the same reason. Now trading at 8x 24e ev/ebitda for 15% ebitda growth over the mid-term and a clean b/s. 🙃"
X Link 2023-07-20T07:48Z 11.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Still waiting for that $LYB $10bn ebitda print thought ESG would be it (anyone.)"
X Link 2023-07-22T11:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"FUD has driven Barcos $BAR share price to absurd discounts. Every now and then we just have to stop look at the sky and say thank you Mr Market"
X Link 2023-07-24T08:34Z 12.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Whats your best micro cap idea and why"
X Link 2023-08-04T11:11Z 17.8K followers, 30.5K engagements
"@NeckarValue Cant mention Beal without mentioning Poker https://www.amazon.com/Professor-Banker-Suicide-King-Richest/dp/0446694975 https://www.amazon.com/Professor-Banker-Suicide-King-Richest/dp/0446694975"
X Link 2023-08-07T15:04Z 13.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@hkuppy 's back of the envelope math is all you need. 'Most investors are wed to prior models models that came of age during the past few decades of declining interest rates and inflation. As a result they dont recognize many of the prior rules are now inverted.' Another great read 👌"
X Link 2023-08-08T10:48Z [----] followers, 121.2K engagements
"Diving into Monarch Cement $MCEM. Does anyone have an idea re current and expected (changes in) capacity utilisation as well as any secular tailwinds for the next few years (Obv Im still very early in the works here. so 🙏🏼)"
X Link 2023-08-14T09:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"First day after the holidays and the ToffCap team is already highlighting a new company. This time we look at Barco $BAR a high-quality Belgian technology company with 100% upside over the next few years. ✅good growth (+15-20% ebitda pa) driven by secular tailwinds ✅solid balance sheet ✅shares on sale due to a few temporary reasons ✅strong market share in expanding markets ✅just a cool company Check out the blog 👇"
X Link 2023-08-16T16:53Z 12.6K followers, 15.9K engagements
"We recently highlighted Barco $BAR a company we had on our watchlist for a long time. We turn over a LOT of rocks every day and always have more ideas than time. Subscribe to the ToffCap blog to get our watchlist and write-ups on a regular basis 👍"
X Link 2023-08-17T17:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just started to scratch the surface but Daktronics $DAKT reminds me a bit of Barco ( $BAR has a similar offering in LVW though focusses on completely other markets). These businesses tend to have a strong secular tailwind i.c. slowly but steadily the product/technology is moving more towards software. A shift from e.g. 15% of software/rev to 25% over a decade could mean 5% gross margin impact. And on single-digit ebitda margins that adds up"
X Link 2023-08-18T15:04Z [----] followers, 26.4K engagements
"We're out with a brand-new TMM an overview of interesting companies and trades that caught our attention. Check it out👇 $SLYG $BAR $DAKT $CROX $ICAD $BWA $BREE $SAVE $ARMK $U $VSTO $NOVN $LL $BCTX $NCMI $ODD $EURN $STNG $TNP $TORM $FRO $HAFNIA"
X Link 2023-08-21T14:06Z 12.7K followers, 17.3K engagements
"BIG acquisition for Atlas Engineered Products. $AEP acquiring LCF for c. $29m; $26.9m in cash rest shares (at $1.14). This one will have a significant impact; LCF generated $9.5m ebitda in [----] (compared to $14m for $AEP). And AEP intends to continue stating that "the Company is currently reviewing a number of additional acquisition targets." @PaulAndreola"
X Link 2023-08-23T10:25Z 12.2K followers, 22.5K engagements
"Altas Engineered $AEP today up on the LCF deal which is clearly good news. [----] was a good year for the industry and [----] will be a step back. Nonetheless guesstimating $6m 2023e ebitda for LCF gives 5x ev/ebitda pre-synergies - a good price in itself. And we know that $AEP is able to generate good synergies from its deals. AEP continues to move in the right direction - growing earnings attracting investors improving liquidity increasing the multiple. BIG acquisition for Atlas Engineered Products. $AEP acquiring LCF for c. $29m; $26.9m in cash rest shares (at $1.14). This one will have a"
X Link 2023-08-23T13:53Z 12K followers, [----] engagements
"No dog in this fight but Im very curious to see how the $U market will react from current levels if $U.U is able to stay at a premium for some time 🤞"
X Link 2023-08-24T06:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Lots of comments lately on the relatively valuation between countries particularly in Europe - how 'country X is way cheaper now vs country Y' - but completely disregarding the (often massive) differences in inflation/yield dynamics over the past few years"
X Link 2023-08-28T07:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Daktronics $DAKT is expecting strong growth in its end markets over the next years (20% pa). While companies tend to exaggerate their opportunity peers like Barco $BAR are eyeing roughly the same figures. One of the biggest drivers for this growth is the combination of new much improved technology (digital + LED) with large LED video walls having reached an inflection in price / durability / versatility and pent-up demand from covid. The markets were at the forefront of a large replacement cycle before covid. Now markets are back to growth + still some pent-up demand from covid. Overall"
X Link 2023-08-29T15:46Z 12.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Every couple of weeks we share our TMM a list of interesting investments and event-driven trades that we regularly find. Interestingly as we're building next week's list we're noticing a LOT of event-driven trades. The next list will be unusually long. So stay tuned 🔥"
X Link 2023-08-30T09:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Another great set of results for eDreams $EDR. 375k new Prime subs for a total of 4.7m. Q1 cash ebitda was 29.4m (vs ccs 24.0m) growing 110% yoy indicating significant Prime sub contribution. $EDR improved its disclosures now splitting Prime and non-Prime subs contribution👍. Working capital seems to be returning to the normal seasonal pattern. EDR could rerate +50% and still be in line with the OTA space. Should EDR rerate to some type of recurring rev subscription model valuation the upside would be much more significant. The shares are much undervalued given skepticism regarding its"
X Link 2023-08-31T09:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In case you missed it yesterday the latest TMM is out; a list of interesting investments and event-driven trades that we regularly find 👇 $BKHT $CNS $APN $VEEE / $FRZA $EDR $AZE $LICT $TKA $DHR $WDC $PMV $777 $HHH $FUTR $CHGG $SDRL $MEIP $FWRD $FTRE $LEE $ABP $BCTX $SOLB $CBD $NOVN $TOPS"
X Link 2023-09-05T12:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Inpost $INPST the European operator of parcel lockers posted yet another solid quarter with continued growth in all main operational KPIs. I was skeptical re Inpost's proposition at first believing that automated parcel machines (APMs) would not work in markets with a relatively high penetration of to-door delivery. I changed opinion studying the company and the product and now believe this company will be a wrecking-ball to Europe's sleepy postal operators. Poland is becoming a cash cow and France and the UK will be in a few years' time. $INPST mgt is aggressive and I would not be surprised"
X Link 2023-09-06T06:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"So even with the shares up today ADF is trading at 3x ev/ebitda and 5x p/e on annualised earnings which are growing 100%. And very few are paying attention (the cc lasted [--] mins). $DRX s backlog remains strong as well as the market outlook with mgt commenting that the opportunities in our markets remain more than attractive. Theres plenty left to go as $DRX continues to increase utilisation. Assuming another 20% revenue growth for next year would imply 50% net income growth assuming stable gross margins (which should continue to expand)"
X Link 2023-09-07T16:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DakotasTwits @JGGCDN Growth will decelerate at some point (obviously) but theyve never had these kind of tailwinds which will last for another few years at least. Also higher efficiency from automation investments are here to stay. Plenty to go from here"
X Link 2023-09-07T21:02Z 13.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Every now and then I get a new subscriber mail stating '.also reads X Y and [---] other newsletters'. No idea how but respect"
X Link 2023-09-08T06:30Z 13.7K followers, [----] engagements
"I can't remember the last time (if ever) I've seen anything like this. We know Calumet $CLMT is preparing to spin the MR unit in a few months targeting CLMT's current EV. But they recently even dedicated a slide to what they believe is an intrinsic value range for $CLMT's equity; $31-56 p/s (vs $19 today). From yesterday's Barclays conference:"
X Link 2023-09-08T08:10Z [----] followers, 36.6K engagements
"We're out with a new post discussing cinema projectors $BAR Daktronics $DAKT and ADF Group $DRX. Check it out on the blog ✅"
X Link 2023-09-13T16:04Z 12.7K followers, 10K engagements
"Distributors see it first. Brenntag's $BNR CFO recently indicated seeing slow sequential volume recovery (remember Q2 volume was bad so will Q3) while BASF's $BAS CFO mentioning volumes 'bottoming not getting worse'. $IMCD $AZE"
X Link 2023-09-14T08:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A quick reminder. 10x p/e in e.g. Poland is NOT the same as 10x p/e in the US (or Euro zone)"
X Link 2023-09-19T09:01Z 13.5K followers, 17.4K engagements
"If I could go back to my junior portfolio manager days I would have studied short reports more often. Here is a list of short sellers I like (in no particular order) and are on X 👇. Hope you find it useful. White Diamond @WhiteResearch NINGI Research @NingiResearch Guasty Winds @guastywinds Friendly Bear @FriendlyBearSA Grizzly research @ResearchGrizzly The Bear Cave @BearCaveEmail @StockJabber Muddy Waters @muddywatersre Safkhet Capital @SafkhetCapital Hindenburg Research @HindenburgRes Spruce Point @sprucepointcap Viceroy @viceroyresearch Kerrisdale Capital @KerrisdaleCap Iceberg Research"
X Link 2023-09-19T13:49Z [----] followers, 25.7K engagements
"Ranpack $PACK screens interesting. Packaging business that experienced the classic boom-bust wave due to covid. [----] was horrible with strong pressure on demand combined with a spike in paper prices. Add the leverage and the stock got crushed (after riding high the year before). Now demand seems to be slowly coming back while gross margins have improved over the past few quarters and will continue to improve as lower raw material prices fee through. This comes on the back of a few years of investments to improve efficiency. All bodes well for continued strong ebitda growth. Management has a"
X Link 2023-09-19T19:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Knaus Tabbert $KTA increasing revenue and ebitda guidance now targeting 120m ebitda at midpoint (ccs roughly there). Knaus Tabbert (540m market cap) develops and sells recreational vehicles. Co. trading at 6x 2023e ev/ebitda for 15% ebitda CAGR over the next few years. At its recent investor day Knaus (ao) introduced medium-term targets aiming for a revenue cagr of 16-18% for 2023-2027 2bn revenues by [----] and 10% ebitda margin over the medium-term. Knaus plans to distribute around 50% of net income"
X Link 2023-09-20T06:24Z 16.7K followers, [----] engagements
"We're out with a new write-up. This is a fun interesting one and definitely not our typical investment. The company is Mongolia Growth Group $YAK. MGG's CEO and largest shareholder is Harris Kupperman "Kuppy" @hkuppy . His hedge fund Praetorian Capital returned 8x net since early [----] (no typo). If you like #uranium and oil MGG might be an interesting opportunity to add exposure to these sectors along with Kuppy's investment skills at a pretty nice discount to NAV. Enjoy"
X Link 2023-09-20T14:39Z 18.1K followers, [--] engagements
"$ZOO pitch on VIC. I was (probably) going to write this one up but someone beat me to it. Super easy thesis: if you believe that the Hollywood strikes will get resolved over the next year. multi-bagger potential"
X Link 2023-09-21T11:36Z [----] followers, 29.4K engagements
"Weve been sharing our long list of fund letters. Here's the next batch. Enjoy 👇 Qualivian Investment Partners @qualivian Alphyn Capital Management @SamerHakoura Kernow Asset Management (kernowam .com) East72 Holdings @East72Holdings Roubaix Capital (roubaixcapital .com) ClearBridge Investments @Clear_Bridge Black Bear Value Partners (blackbearfund .com) Akre Focus Fund (akrefund. com) Ace River Capital @AceRiverCapital Distillate Capital @DistillateCap Miller Value Partners @MillerValue Wedgewood Partners (wedgewoodpartners .com) Boyar Value Group @BoyarValue Pernas Research @pernasresearch"
X Link 2023-09-21T14:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Qualivian Investment Partners @qualivian Alphyn Capital Management @SamerHakoura Kernow Asset Management (kernowam .com) East72 Holdings @East72Holdings Roubaix Capital (roubaixcapital .com) ClearBridge Investments @Clear_Bridge Black Bear Value Partners (blackbearfund .com) Akre Focus Fund (akrefund. com) Ace River Capital @AceRiverCapital Distillate Capital @DistillateCap Miller Value Partners @MillerValue Wedgewood Partners (wedgewoodpartners .com) Boyar Value Group @BoyarValue Pernas Research @pernasresearch Leaven Partners @leavenpartners Upslope Capital Management @UpslopeCapital (links"
X Link 2023-09-21T17:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Its a good time to highlight this general write-up on the Specialty Chemicals Distribution market one of the highest quality markets I know of. The valuation of the very few listed pure play companies is becoming really compelling. We do not often find size + cheap + high quality + long runway for growth all at the same time. Azelis $AZE IMCD $IMCD"
X Link 2023-09-22T12:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I believe that despite the strong share price performance of Polish parcel locker operator Inpost $INPST over the past year the shares still have multi-bagger potential over the next few years. This company truly appears to be - dare I say it - a disruptor in an otherwise very"
X Link 2023-09-22T14:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Fintwit friends what are some top-notch LatAm companies/opportunities you have on your radar Thanks. Fintwit fam. who are some of the best accounts to follow focussed on Latam and Eastern European equities (Other than the 👌 @ClarkSquareCap and @irbezek ) 🙏🏼 Fintwit fam. who are some of the best accounts to follow focussed on Latam and Eastern European equities (Other than the 👌 @ClarkSquareCap and @irbezek ) 🙏🏼"
X Link 2023-09-23T11:50Z 18K followers, 52.1K engagements
"I always respected and appreciated good trades. Particularly those that seemed so far out of the box. If #uranium hits [---] Im sending @hkuppy a very nice bottle of spumante. Feel free to remind me of this"
X Link 2023-09-24T14:06Z 13.7K followers, 13.2K engagements
"This could rerate really quickly. $ZOO"
X Link 2023-09-25T15:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Just got my new running shoes. I dont think this will make any difference but its cool marketing nonetheless from Adidas ✅ $ADS $CON"
X Link 2023-09-25T17:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The rumors are getting stronger that Barco's $BAR co-CEO Charles Beauduin will return to the office in October. The absence of Mr. Beauduin has been one of the major reasons (THE reason most probably) of the recent share price correction. A return of the CEO would be a very strong near-term catalyst. Also a reminder that there will be a $BAR analyst day in November - another effort of the company to improve communication. We wrote about this nice quality company with lots of upside potential a month ago 👇"
X Link 2023-09-26T12:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"St Joe $JOE gave back all the gains from the latest 🔥Q2 results. This company is performing really well and is benefitting from secular tailwinds. Might be interesting to keep an eye on"
X Link 2023-09-26T18:11Z 12.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Time for our next batch of fund letters. Some interesting new ones 👇 Spear Advisors @SpearAdvisors Third Point Partners @DanielSLoeb1 FMI (fmimgt .com) Fairlight Alpha Fund @Fairlight_Cap Stanphyl Capital Management @StanphylCap Oaktree Capital @HowardMarksBook Stewart Asset Management (stewartassetmgmt .com) Vulcan Value Partners (vulcanvaluepartners .com) Tidefall Capital Management @TidefallCapital Weitz Investments @WeitzInvest Starvine Capital @StarvineCapital Aristotle Funds (aristotlefundsimst .com) Broyhill Asset Management @ChrisPavese Maran Capital Management @Dan_Roller Warden"
X Link 2023-09-27T12:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Atlas Engineered Products $AEP announces adoption of shareholder rights plan but states Plan Not Adopted in Response to Any Pending or Threatened Take-Over Bid 👀"
X Link 2023-09-27T14:09Z 12.7K followers, [----] engagements
"$ZOO cut to hold TP 90p. current price 52p. 🤷♂"
X Link 2023-09-28T06:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tough quarter for $ZOO (as expected). Again not a difficult thesis: IF strikes get resolved Zoo will do ok. Otherwise this happens. (no position)"
X Link 2023-09-28T07:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Very good cost control for the Polish Amazon Allegro $ALE. The company seems to exhibit the classic pattern of CEO changes: first some kitchen sinking then under promise and over deliver. Importantly continued growth in Poland combined with cost control is leading to healthy"
X Link 2023-09-28T07:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"We're out with another TMM - #11 👍. There's once again a LOT of action on the event-driven side. Enjoy $FTLF $INPST $ZOO $LAC $GNS $TBRD $CYT $YELLQ $BB $OCN $AMS $ENX $ARIX $GAN $CZOO $OEL $ATEX $SLVM $SWBI $GPOR $MEIP Special thanks to @1MainCapital @puppyeh1 @oracleof90402 and @AmadeusValue for some of the ideas"
X Link 2023-10-02T12:29Z 16.5K followers, 19K engagements
"Busy period in the spin-off world. A few recent and upcoming distribution dates: Aramark $ARMK 30/09 ( Vestis $VSTS) Lithium Americas $LAC 03/10 ($LAAC) Kellogg $K 02/10 ($KLG) Genius Group $GNS 02/10 Danaher $DHR 30/09 (Veralto $VLTO) Novartis $NVS 04/10"
X Link 2023-10-03T15:18Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"By the way so far $KLG and $VSTS are trading like 🗑 🚮 Busy period in the spin-off world. A few recent and upcoming distribution dates: Aramark $ARMK 30/09 ( Vestis $VSTS) Lithium Americas $LAC 03/10 ($LAAC) Kellogg $K 02/10 ($KLG) Genius Group $GNS 02/10 Danaher $DHR 30/09 (Veralto $VLTO) Novartis $NVS 04/10. Busy period in the spin-off world. A few recent and upcoming distribution dates: Aramark $ARMK 30/09 ( Vestis $VSTS) Lithium Americas $LAC 03/10 ($LAAC) Kellogg $K 02/10 ($KLG) Genius Group $GNS 02/10 Danaher $DHR 30/09 (Veralto $VLTO) Novartis $NVS 04/10"
X Link 2023-10-03T16:31Z 12.8K followers, 10.5K engagements
"@ThomasBraziel @memyselfandi006 Its basically a one-stop-shop / platform if you need to allocate capital to (active) funds and etfs. Makes sense that it gets sold"
X Link 2023-10-04T10:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Im highlighting again this general write-up on the Specialty Chemicals Distribution market one of the highest quality markets I know of. Q3 results are soon and will be bad. Sentiment is reaching extreme negative levels and the valuation of the very few listed pure play companies is becoming really compelling. Im keeping a very close eye on these two. We do not often find size + cheap + high quality + long runway for growth all at the same time. Azelis $AZE IMCD $IMCD"
X Link 2023-10-06T12:14Z [----] followers, 15.6K engagements
"I recently wrote about my strongly increased focus on the chemicals space. Ive been asked about my watchlist and why Ive not yet pulled the trigger. I keep track of many names (see below for some of them). As to why Im still on the sidelines. Generalising at the moment the hurt has been mainly localised on the Industrials side (chem intermediates material tech / CASE processing chems etc). The industry is still much suffering from imbalances: demand and WC normalisation after strong Covid tailwinds slow China reopening (+China dumping in other markets) high interest rates inflation raw mat"
X Link 2023-10-07T12:06Z [----] followers, 28.7K engagements
"A bit of a dramatized announcement by eDreams $EDR but still continued signs of traction of the company's adoption of the subscription model. As a reminder $EDR is targeting 7.5m Prime members by FY25 (ic March 2025) and is very much on track. The company's conversion to a subscription model is continuing to gain traction and has reached a critical mass imo. 'cash' earnings should now continue to converge towards 'classic' earnings; based on a target of 7.5m Prime members eDreams is trading at 5x ev / (cash) ebitda looking 1.5yrs out. OTAs are trading for 10-15x and that's excluding the"
X Link 2023-10-10T07:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Are we finally going to see Vivendi $VIV rationalize its asset portfolio and realize (part of) its big holdco discount (80% upside) The Vivendi story is well-known; for those not familiar with the case $VIV is a French conglomerate (8.7bn market cap) with many media and entertainment related assets. The amalgamation of assets is relatively inefficient with core assets centered around Canal+ Havas and Lagardre but also including a vast array of non-core assets (I include ao Gameloft GVA Dailymotion) and several minority stakes in listed companies such as a 10% stake in UMG $UMG and 24% in"
X Link 2023-10-10T13:07Z 16K followers, 26.9K engagements
"@MikeFritzell For the group: Europe organic growth +7% (+19% in Q2) US +2% (Q2 -1%) Asia ex Japan +11% (Q2 +34%) and no significant change in China Japan +30% (Q2: +29%)"
X Link 2023-10-11T06:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"InPosts $INPST potential remains strongly underappreciated imo. As previously mentioned (below) I believe that in a few years time InPost will have three big cash flow generating divisions (Poland the UK and France) each one large enough to reflect the current market valuation. This is excluding any new market the company will attack (which it definitely will). Lets do some back-of-the-envelope math on the UKs potential. $INPST is targeting roughly 17k APMs over the medium term (3 years) in the UK which is highly realisable now that capacity is unconstrained after the Menzies deal. I believe"
X Link 2023-10-11T15:21Z [----] followers, 15.2K engagements
"Gulfport Energy $GPOR (trading at roughly 3x ev/ebitda on 24e) recently increased its buyback program to $650m or roughly 1/3 of its market cap. So far Gulfport bought back c. 15% of mc"
X Link 2023-10-11T17:38Z 16.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Yes great result. Kontron $KTN to acquire BSquare $BSQR for c +50% on yday's closing price A nice outcome for $BSQR holders. Congrats @ToffCap https://t.co/9QEG7yAxtX A nice outcome for $BSQR holders. Congrats @ToffCap https://t.co/9QEG7yAxtX"
X Link 2023-10-12T06:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Long (very small) OOM calls on Fresenius Medial Care $FME; -20% due to Ozempic significantly impacting future dialysis patient volumes I don't buy it. (and if I'm wrong that means a lot of people will be much healthier. so tbh no idea if I want this one to work.)"
X Link 2023-10-12T15:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"ADF $DRX continues to show impressive relative strength"
X Link 2023-10-12T19:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Any good stock pitches on $GEO out there This is one of those stocks that has multi-bagger feeling five mins into the research"
X Link 2023-10-13T11:57Z [----] followers, 26.8K engagements
"Ackman continues to buy up Howard Hughes $HHH. HHH recently announced it would spin-off its Seaport and other related assets which would help close the discount to NAV. The company recently provided a slide with a SOTP calculation (90% upside to the current share price)"
X Link 2023-10-13T13:29Z [----] followers, 11.7K engagements
"So apparently I've been living under a rock wrt $GEO and there's a lot of smart people out there that already did quite a work on the company: @CorneliaLake @agnostoxxx @LingmerthStefan @BoxLongs @RealCandaceO @DakotasTwits And quite some SA and VIC write-ups as well 🙏"
X Link 2023-10-13T18:52Z [----] followers, 10.1K engagements
"I once (co-)managed a 50m fund and a 1bn fund at the same time. The 50m fund: two people deciding within minutes to learn everything possible about this interesting new find and booking a trip to meet mgt. The bn+ fund: ten people taking an hour to discuss how US tech and the $ were relatively overbought and decide to sell 75bps of MSFT to buy NOVN. Guess which fund was most fun to manage (and had better performance)"
X Link 2023-10-15T12:06Z [----] followers, 49K engagements
"Toffcap's Monday Monitor #12 (our overview of interesting event-driven trades and companies) is out and it's the best one so far 👍. A lot of action on the event-driven side ✅. And a special thanks to our friends @ClarkSquareCap and @evfcfaddict for their contributions. $ARCB $AMBP $CABP $MLP $VIV $TECK $EAPI $ACDC $ALLFG $BTMD $7732 $HHH $ASTR $WPC $DLA $LL $UNFI $MNKTQ $GTH $TSRI $SMLP $IMPL $RAD $AIR $EBIX $AWIN $NUVB $VSTA $BB $VSTS $VLTO $KLG $SDZ $NATL This publication continues to grow and we constantly find new ideas. Subscribe so you wont miss it"
X Link 2023-10-16T12:27Z 13.7K followers, 27.8K engagements
"@evfcfaddict @ClarkSquareCap Just seen it. Has been on the list for a few months now though disappointing price have to say. But can't win them all (unfortunately)"
X Link 2023-10-16T12:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Astra Space $ASTR is your typical dumpster fire stock. A natural cash incinerator that should never have been listed. Just look at the chart below (not to mention the 5y chart). But dumpster fires can be interesting trades. According to Bloomberg Astra is considering selling a 51% stake in its in-space propulsion business among other strategic sale options. The unit is to be valued at $100m - compared to a current market cap of $16m. Im keeping an eye on this garbage; might be an interesting option-like trade"
X Link 2023-10-17T17:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Sign of the times for Barco $BAR as shares drop 15% on guidance revision while new ebitda guidance implies ccs cuts of c. 7%. Revenues are now expected to be in line with FY22 and 14% ebitda margin (- the latter implies almost 20% ebitda growth in FY23). Top of the watchlist now. Yes demand is weak but there's a ton of self-help potential here. Barco is pulling off margin expansion despite demand headwinds (mainly China) and very low production utilization rates as new China plants ramp up. FY24 should see continued margin increase from increasing plant utilization and the ongoing Large Video"
X Link 2023-10-18T07:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@valueplusSSI There is a 100% certainty that this remains a dumpster fire. But markets can be slow to react particularly on big news events. Should good news be reported (not certain) AND the price reaction is not reflective then this might be an interesting trade 👍"
X Link 2023-10-18T11:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Maui Land & Pineapple $MLP is a very interesting recent pitch on VIC which reminded me of St. Joe $JOE; I'm a big fan of JOE (which btw is down 20% since reaching a top in July after very strong earnings momentum) so I'm clearly biased here. Both still have multi-bagger potential imo. The pitch is simple. $MLP owns a lot of land in Maui (roughly 22k acres) much of which is beautiful land with plenty of development potential. MLP has so far been relatively quiet to the market but that is anticipated to change over the short term. And as MLP moves into its developing phase and starts to realize"
X Link 2023-10-18T13:47Z 17.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Nuvation $NUVB is a busted biotech SPAC with $600m net cash on balance sheet trading at a market cap of $260m. The company is currently pursuing its last trials. If these are a success the stock could have some interesting upside. Otherwise $NUVB could become a cash-distribution play. This should play out over the next [--] months or so. Also there's been some BIG insider buying recently"
X Link 2023-10-19T16:41Z [----] followers, 12.5K engagements
"I've kept an eye on Ardagh Metal Packaging $AMBP since it's 'listing' in [----]. I liked the proposition but was not convinced given the relatively high leverage. Given my current focus on levered companies with good CF generation👇 and de strong de-rating AMBP has recently crept up the watchlist as I believe there could be significant upside. $AMBP is a levered aluminum can producer listed in [----] via a SPAC. Ardagh operates in a very consolidated industry (roughly [--] companies control most of the market). The company is close to completing its large capex plan and is projecting positive free"
X Link 2023-10-20T14:15Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Cab Payments $CABP is an interesting company that was recently highlighted on the blog. Cab listed in July but the shares are down 30% since. This is a classic broken-IPO in a bad market providing a potentially interesting opportunity given continued strong growth ahead and very reasonable valuation. Cab provides through its subsidiaries B2B cross-border payments and foreign exchange solutions across emerging markets (mainly Africa). The payment and FX solutions providing assets are hidden within a dusty old UK bank masking the true growth potential of the assets. Besides a potential recovery"
X Link 2023-10-23T12:13Z [----] followers, 12.8K engagements
"Ouch. Nasty results from FMC $FMC guiding down guidance and announcing a restructuring. And this comes after fighting a recent short report"
X Link 2023-10-23T13:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Solid deal from Kingsway Financial Services $KFS. With a much simplified capital structure and run-rate ebitda 20m growing 30%+ $FKS is very attractively valued after the recent pull-back"
X Link 2023-10-23T16:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"WP Carey $WPC will spin-off [--] office properties into Net Lease Office Properties $NLOP. NLOP will begin trading on [--] November (1 NLOP shares for every [--] WPC shares). WPC results on [--] November shares down 20% over the past few months"
X Link 2023-10-24T13:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I recently added to my (already) top [--] positions ADF Group $DRX and Daktronics $DAKT. Both stocks continue to exhibit impressive relative strength particularly in this (small cap) market. You can check out the blog for an outline of both business cases"
X Link 2023-10-24T17:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Massive reaction after the Worldline $WLN $WRDLY results with shares dropping 50%. Shares now at all-time lows. WLN basically adjusted all targets downwards. Merchant services was impacted by macro slowdown in Germany while no improvements expected for financial services and mobility & e-transactional services. Expect BIG cuts for [----]. Putting WLN on the watchlist here as sector continues to get slaughtered"
X Link 2023-10-25T08:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Here's a few interesting investor letters that I recently read from funds that are doing well so far this year: Alluvial Capital @alluvialcapital Kingdom Capital @kingdomcapadv Rowan Street Capital @RowanStreetCap Cedar Creek Partners @eriksen_tim Gator Capital Management @gatorcapital RV Capital (rvcapital .ch) Oakmark Select Fund @HarrisOakmark LRT Capital Management @tomicki Praetorian Capital @hkuppy Black Bear Value Partners (blackbearfund .com) Patient Capital Management @PatientCM Pernas Research (pernasresearch .com) Longleaf Partners Fund (southeasternasset .com) Vulcan Value"
X Link 2023-10-25T15:33Z [----] followers, 10.8K engagements
"Kingsway FS $KFS saving the day. Nice share price movement after last weeks clean up trade removing the index fund seller from pressuring the stock. The shares look attractive particularly if more acquisitions like the recent ones are closed"
X Link 2023-10-25T19:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A nice little company that I regularly check on to assess the state of its end-markets is Lectra $LSS. Lectra is an equipment manufacturer and service provider mainly exposed to the (high-end) fashion automotive and furniture industries. Their order book earnings dynamics and mgt comments generally provide a great outlook into the state of these relatively large markets. Needless to say Lectra's business is suffering at the moment. Orders fell sharply in Q3 (-26% y/y) with investment decisions being delayed by clients. This concerns all of Lectras markets including luxury goods which had been"
X Link 2023-10-26T07:54Z 12.7K followers, [----] engagements
"ArcBest $ARCB reports tomorrow and I'll be keeping an eye on this company. ArcBest is one of the largest (#6) less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers. The industry is currently in a cyclical downturn which could turn at some point. As with all cyclicals it could get worse before it gets better though volumes have already been declining for some time while truck load pricing is about 50% off the 2021-2022 peak. Besides an eventual turn of the market another interesting catalyst is the recent bankruptcy of the large competitor Yellow (YELLQ US). Given the unionized structure of the company ArcBest"
X Link 2023-10-26T12:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Why is Bel Fuse $BELFB so cheap Even after today's move the stock is just back to the levels of a few weeks ago and still 5x ev/ebitda with peers trading (much) higher. The company is on track for $100m ebitda this year which looks sustainable imo. Mgt increasingly focused on costs which should sustain / increase margins bringing them closer to peers. Net cash b/s. Great operating leverage should the business continue to grow. Looks too cheap. What am I missing"
X Link 2023-10-26T16:15Z [----] followers, 16.9K engagements
"I believe a very interesting sector at the moment. Cycle low has been much more pronounced than what companies where expecting + China of course causing a double whammy (low Chinese demand + Asian producers dumping in Europe and US). Visibility remains low but this remains a cyclical business. Will continue to share what I hear / learn from the companies"
X Link 2023-10-27T07:36Z 12.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Kingsway Financial Services $KFS today announced another acquisition of an asset light recurring revenue business. This one will add 10% to the run-rate ebitda. $KFS is on a roll lately; this is the third acquisition in just a few months adding c.20% to ebitda. The model seems to be working ✅; KFS now has $20m run-rate ebitda (at a pretty high visibility) growing 30%+ a clean b/s all at 10x ev/ebitda. Cheap"
X Link 2023-10-27T13:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ill put it on the watchlist and buy it when its down 20-30% is something that Ive heard today and again for almost two decades. Of course investors almost never do IF the stock in question indeed pulls back. In [----] Joel Greenblatt wrote about a study on the best-performing fund for the period [----] to [----]. The fund was up 18% a year during this period while the market was flat. In contrast the average investor in that fund went in and out (at the wrong times) and lost 11% per year (). In addition he shared other interesting statistics: 97% of the top-quartile managers for that decade spent"
X Link 2023-10-28T09:14Z [----] followers, 15.3K engagements
"In case you missed it we recently published Toffcap's Monday Monitor #13 👇 our overview of interesting event-driven trades and companies. Check it out; link in bio. $AEDAS $MAL $SDZ $BELFB $RNO $XPEL $RAIN $NNDM $OSTK $SODI $MICR $WCG $EML $CGM $SW $NEXI $ETWO $NGMS $ACI $IRBT $WLN $PII $FLEX $ETS $LIAN $MRTX $NTRS $ORC $LOPE $VSTA $TLNE $YELLQ $SAVE $ALLFG $HHH $BB $WDC $PRTYQ"
X Link 2023-10-31T13:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I've written quite a bit about my focus lately on certain companies in the chemicals space. Which other sectors/industries are so beaten up that they might perform well next year even if the economy does not"
X Link 2023-10-31T15:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@LingmerthStefan Any interesting companies you're looking at"
X Link 2023-10-31T15:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Question. You all probably heard the great Charlie Munger on @AcquiredFM regarding finding great investments: it was never easy but its much harder now. What do you think Ive been at it for [--] decades now and imo it has actually become easier"
X Link 2023-10-31T19:04Z [----] followers, 10.5K engagements
"Despite being down 30% since the spin green hydrogen company Thyssenkrupp Nucera $NCH2 is still trading at market cap of c. EUR 1.8bn or roughly 20x 2027e price / fairy tale earnings"
X Link 2023-11-01T11:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Wut Any views on Zenvia $ZENV"
X Link 2023-11-01T15:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Boring stable little/no growth crappy product company BIC $BB has been executing pretty well on its 'Horizon' restructuring plan. Revenue growth picked up quite a bit since and now the focus is on margin expansion. FCF generation should grow to 220m pa as of FY24. That'll bring BIC's EV to 2.8bn assuming zero growth and 8% discount rate compared to 2.5bn today. Any growth continues to be basically 'free'. But wait isn't this company going to zero given their crappy lighters/razors Bet you we will continue to hear this over the next decade (as we have over the past decade.)"
X Link 2023-11-03T09:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@danielsharriman $SHC $META @javsfz $SAN $AMZN @optimist_fund $UBER $CVNA @HrtmnMax $GOOG $SPOT @fahi8587 $AMZN $PHO"
X Link 2023-11-03T14:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I've written 👆 about my focus on companies / sectors with relatively high leverage and good fcf generation. Many (levered) sectors are pressured given the current yield environment which provides an opportunity as quality companies are punished. One such little gem is $AEDAS"
X Link 2023-11-04T13:08Z 17.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Telecom Italia $TIT.IM to sell its NetCo network to KKR for 18.8bn in a deal that will not be subject to a vote by shareholders; Vivendi $VIV (holding c. 24%) clearly not amused (to put it mildly). Overall the deal is 10x EBITDAaL before earn-outs (12x after earn-outs) much better than $TIT.IM's current multiples + net debt (ex leases) could be reduced by 14bn to 1.8x EBITDAaL. Are we finally going to see Vivendi $VIV rationalize its asset portfolio and realize (part of) its big holdco discount (80% upside) The Vivendi story is well-known; for those not familiar with the case $VIV is a French"
X Link 2023-11-06T08:12Z 15K followers, [----] engagements
"Pro-Dex $PDEX is a very interesting micro-cap with a lot going on. There are several dynamics that seem to be strongly accelerating earnings growth going forward. Insiders own 40%. PDEX produces and distributes medical and dental devices. Its main product is a device used by doctors to attach implants to the bone with precision. The company recently finished a big expansion program where it doubled its manufacturing space. It took some time but the project now seems complete. At almost the same time $PDEX announced a doubling of its order backlog. So growing order backlog + plenty of capacity"
X Link 2023-11-07T14:44Z 12.8K followers, [----] engagements
"I'm happy to announce a new segment on the blog: the Quick Read. The first one is on Adyen which will hold its capital markets day tomorrow. Enjoy (link in bio) $ADYEN $ADYEY"
X Link 2023-11-07T17:56Z [----] followers, 13.4K engagements
"Another 🔥 quarter for Inpost $INPST despite poor September volumes. Q4 looks to be great👌 - Parcel volumes +18% yoy in Q3 [--] - Revenues +22% - great pricing. Expect more in Q4 - ebitda margin +4pp to 30.9% - Group CFO PLN 655m in Q3 [--] +91% yoy() - UK now ebitda profitable Keep in mind that the backdrop is a challenging parcel environment. Inpost is on a roll and will continue. 10x ev/ebitda on FY23 (keep IFRS [--] in mind) very cheap for this long-term growth story"
X Link 2023-11-09T08:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ackman still loading up on Howard Hughes $HHH adding 655k shares since this tweet"
X Link 2023-11-09T17:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Neogames $NGMS. Merger arb. Signed merger agreement with Aristocrat ($29.5 p/s). 16% deal spread for 20-30% IRR in [--] months. Old VIC write-up for background here"
X Link 2023-11-10T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Albertson $ACI. Merger arb. Great notes from Andrew Walker on a few merger arbitrage / antitrust special sits (incl. old TMM favorite SAVE). The first is Albertson getting acquired by Kroger; see post. H/t @AndrewRangeley for the idea"
X Link 2023-11-10T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Talen Energy $TLNE filed to uplist to a major exchange. Recently exited bankruptcy and trading OTC. No coverage yet. Announced a $300m buyback (10% of market cap). Still a few catalysts ahead (uplisting no coverage yet buybacks)"
X Link 2023-11-10T14:02Z 18.1K followers, [----] engagements
"I recently published the second Quick Read discussing Adyen $ADYEN and Basic-Fit $BFIT 👇. Thanks for all the appreciative messages 👍"
X Link 2023-11-12T12:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A few takes from Diageo's $DGE Capital Markets Day 👇 for those interested in a high-quality company currently facing some headwinds. Diageos presentations mainly revolved around its approach to different spirits market categories the base of its the growth strategy. The focus is on strengthening the foothold in existing categories like pushing tequila in Southern Europe and maximizing whisky potential in the US and riding the wave of new trends like non-alcoholic spirits and RTDs. Management laid out a convincing growth plan targeting a +5-7% growth driven by volume increases price/mix"
X Link 2023-11-17T09:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"PetMed Express $PETS. Decent insider purchases in this online pet pharmacy. Stock clobbered ytd; net cash b/s (about 1/3 of market cap) 17% dividend yield (if sustainable). Might be interesting to keep an eye out"
X Link 2023-11-19T20:04Z 17K followers, [----] engagements
"Friends can someone pls point me to a thread that explains this whole OpenAI mess This is so out of my focus area but I'm really intrigued. 🙏"
X Link 2023-11-20T19:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"FTC Solar $FTCI is a (very) speculative micro-cap. The stock suffered a lot recently following poor results (residential solar weakness and uncertainty around IRA related subsidy/tax credit information) management changes and overall poor sentiment in the cleantech sector. FTC has a $75m market cap and $30m in net cash on the balance sheet and a total backlog of $1.6bn. IF $FTCI survives and the backlog comes through (even a bit) the stock could have multi-bagger potential. Also there's a reasonable case to be made for a sale"
X Link 2023-11-21T18:27Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"For those interested I tuned into Bayer's $BAYN call which followed the disappointing update on asundexian. Some comments 👇 First off the CEO doesn't see strategic options changing despite the setback from the halt of the OCEANIC-AF program. The balance sheet might feel the squeeze without the expected sales boost but the CEO seems to hint at needing a more stable business outlook for any major spin-offs. Cropscience is facing a bit of a storm think headwinds in seed mix overflowing crop protection inventories driving down prices and the recent glyphosate court losses (which the CFO vows to"
X Link 2023-11-21T18:52Z [----] followers, 18.1K engagements
"According to Adidas $ADS the Chinese consumer is on its way back. Adidas also seems to start to reap the benefits of its investments in sports partnerships grassroots events and products. They're tweaking their strategy in the region as well. Historically adidas leaned heavily on pre-orders but now they're shifting gears towards more re-orders. This change is largely thanks to a significant uptick in local sourcing. On the Yeezy situation. Management confirmed that they've sold 200m of Yeezy inventory. $ADS still holds 300m worth of Yeezy goods"
X Link 2023-11-22T08:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Stellantis $STLAM $STLA yesterday evening announced it acquired 50m shares (1.58% of its capital) from Dongfeng for 934m planning to cancel these shares. This was part of a deal from last July where Stellantis got the green light to buy the shares at a pre-agreed price (18.68 per share this time around). Post this transaction Dongfeng's still holding onto 49.2m shares but their slice of the Stellantis pie has shrunk to 1.58% post-cancellation. Stellantis confirmed the deal wont affect their 1.5bn open-market buy-back program set to wrap up by year-end. $STLA upped their dividend payout to 25%"
X Link 2023-11-23T14:47Z 18.1K followers, 31.6K engagements
"@puppyeh1 Pls dont post pictures of my car Jeremy"
X Link 2023-11-24T06:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
""It's too early at the moment imo but it's getting there" was my conclusion on Lectra $LSS. I think that comment hit the bottom. A nice little company that I regularly check on to assess the state of its end-markets is Lectra $LSS. Lectra is an equipment manufacturer and service provider mainly exposed to the (high-end) fashion automotive and furniture industries. Their order book earnings dynamics and https://t.co/DlYQjpRkaZ A nice little company that I regularly check on to assess the state of its end-markets is Lectra $LSS. Lectra is an equipment manufacturer and service provider mainly"
X Link 2023-11-24T11:00Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Is anyone deep in the know on Zynex $ZYXI This screens like a very interesting investment with multi-bagger potential. Zynex is reviewing strategic alternatives has a strong b/s (net cash) a new $20m buy-back in place (c. 7% of market cap) and has healthy cash flow generation. CEO seems a bit of a character but owns 40%. If Bloomberg consensus is anywhere near correct $ZYXI is trading at 12x ev/ebitda on 2023e for 50% ebitda cagr over the next few years. Mgt has ambitious targets to grow revenues to "$800m over the next few years with a strong bottom line" from $200m currently. Appreciate all"
X Link 2023-11-25T14:38Z [----] followers, 13K engagements
"Why do I still see (a lot) of sell side reports concluding that the shares are undervalued based on a comparison of current multiples vs the 5/10y average. Is it laziness or ignorance (or both)"
X Link 2023-11-25T17:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"EOS Energy $EOSE is still around I had no idea. This was a (very) successful trade with the warrants back in late [----]. There are good returns to be made when different hypes align - in this case ESG and SPACs. Check out the old blog posts if interested"
X Link 2023-11-25T19:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Still working through this list of Polish gems 👇. Any comments additions companies that should be prioritised etc Inpost $INSPT Mercor $MCR.WA Livechat Software $LVC.WA Dino Polska $DNP.WA Synektik $SNT.WA Tarczynski $TAR.WA Eurotel $ETL.WA Debica $DPC.WA Monnari Trade $MON.WA Sygnity $SGN.WA Oponeo $OPN.WA Grupa Pracuj $GPP.WA Warsaw Stock Exchange $GPW.WA Eurosnack $ECK.WA Spyrosoft $SPR.WA Wittchen $WTN.WA Asseco $ASE.WA Ifirma $IFI.WA Ambra $AMB.WA Digital Network $DIG.WA Mobruk $MBR.WA Pepco $PCO.AW Auto Partner $APR.WA Aplisens $APL.WA"
X Link 2023-11-26T15:07Z [----] followers, 29.4K engagements
"I'm hearing rumors that $AEDAS management recently met with its largest shareholder to discuss potential take-out scenarios. Only speculation at this point but would not be surprised. Check out 👇 for a recent thread on Aedas Homes. New position: Aedas Homes $AEDAS. Aedas is a Spanish developer trading at c. 50% discount to NAV 13% dividend yield and what looks promising cash flow generation given quality assets. Good chance that the company will become a target imo if the valuation remains pressured (1/n) New position: Aedas Homes $AEDAS. Aedas is a Spanish developer trading at c. 50%"
X Link 2023-11-26T18:31Z 17.8K followers, [----] engagements
"If you missed this according to a Betaville 'uncooked alert' (i.e. a gossip) Worldline $WLN attracted takeover interest from a large European PE (probably CVC). As discussed in the past this shouldn't come as a surprise (at all). $WLN is trading at 6x ev/ebitda on FY23e. This compares to eg 8x for Ingenico 13x Network International $NETW (also CVC). To note is also CVC's interest in $NEXI"
X Link 2023-11-27T08:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"InPost $INPST is just getting started. CEO Brzoska "seeing increasing international market share and aims to strengthen its position in key markets further.""
X Link 2023-11-27T11:35Z [----] followers, 13.1K engagements
"@capitaloptimism 😂 💯"
X Link 2023-11-28T17:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Youve probably already seen this. But here 1000+ pages from Charlie Munger 👌 courtesy of @maxolson"
X Link 2023-11-29T06:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We took a brief brake but next week we'll be publishing the next Toffcap Monday Monitor our overview of interesting event-driven trades and companies. A lot is going on yet again with many interesting opportunities👍. Stay tuned"
X Link 2023-11-29T13:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I tuned into Novartis' $NOVN recent R&D Day. Novartis is one of a few large cap companies that are part of my 'safety bucket' that I keep assessed. A few notes. Novartis stepped up its game revising its medium-term revenue growth forecast from 4% to 5% annually through [----]. This new outlook is backed by solid performance of their flagship products and the potential of upcoming launches like iptacopan and remibrutinib. $NOVN is targeting a core ebit margin of 40% by [----] mainly by reducing sales and general administrative expenses implying HSD% core ebit cagr - above BB cons. Novartis seems"
X Link 2023-11-30T14:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We published a new Quick Read discussing InPost $INPST and eDreams $EDR 👍 Check it out (link in bio) The more work I do on InPost $INPST (EUR 5.3bn market cap) the better the story becomes. I believe there is still multi-bagger potential left here. InPost is a Polish operator of Automated Parcel Machine lockers listed in Amsterdam. It's a rather unique and high-growing https://t.co/W4QeB6qLnH The more work I do on InPost $INPST (EUR 5.3bn market cap) the better the story becomes. I believe there is still multi-bagger potential left here. InPost is a Polish operator of Automated Parcel"
X Link 2023-11-30T18:29Z 18K followers, [----] engagements
"We recently published a new Quick Read on two very interesting cases InPost $INPST and eDreams $EDR 👍 Check it out (link in bio) ✅ The more work I do on InPost $INPST (EUR 5.3bn market cap) the better the story becomes. I believe there is still multi-bagger potential left here. InPost is a Polish operator of Automated Parcel Machine lockers listed in Amsterdam. It's a rather unique and high-growing https://t.co/W4QeB6qLnH The more work I do on InPost $INPST (EUR 5.3bn market cap) the better the story becomes. I believe there is still multi-bagger potential left here. InPost is a Polish"
X Link 2023-12-01T12:15Z 17.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Yellow corp $YELLQ HUGE news for Yellow Corporation shareholders. Auction results came in 400mm above stalking horse bid. By our calculations shareholder recovery should be around 600mm indicating more than 500% upside. $yellq (either we totally missed something or the pop on open will be https://t.co/qySfZps2B6 HUGE news for Yellow Corporation shareholders. Auction results came in 400mm above stalking horse bid. By our calculations shareholder recovery should be around 600mm indicating more than 500% upside. $yellq (either we totally missed something or the pop on open will be"
X Link 2023-12-05T09:41Z 17.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Seems still too low given the Yellow $YELLQ news but definitely not an expert on the case here. What do you think"
X Link 2023-12-05T15:35Z 17.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Friends does anyone have a view on Exail Technologies $EXA (was Groupe Gorg) Just scratching the surface here but I like the exposure to an industry which should have tailwinds over the next few years. Order book looks solid which should provide good visibility. I estimate 20% ebitda cagr over the medium-term; stock trading at c 11x 23e ev/ebitda. Quite the leverage - which I don't mind (and actually like) if visibility is relatively high. Also additional near-term upside potential from the huge Australian navy tender. Again barely scratching the surface here but I like what I see so far. I"
X Link 2023-12-06T13:08Z 15.9K followers, [----] engagements
"TUI $TUI up 13% today mainly because broken clocks are at times right. If you've followed this account a bit you'll know that I don't have any problems looking at crappy stocks; I look for value everywhere even in bad places. That said $TUI may be one of the very few companies I'll always ignore. Look at that beautiful chart below"
X Link 2023-12-06T14:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Cambium Networks $CMBM is a developer and manufacturer of wireless broadband and Wifi networking infrastructure solutions. The company operates is a generally rather poor industry; heavily cyclical and quickly commoditized. Indeed $CMBM shares have massively derated over the past year reflecting poor operating performance. Nonetheless we appear to be on the cusp of a big up-cycle. There are going to be massive investments in networking infrastructure over the coming years. The BEAD program alone is $40bn the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund is another $20bn; and Cambium stands to benefit."
X Link 2023-12-06T16:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Ah a good ol case of someone knows something. (ADF $DRX reports tomorrow)"
X Link 2023-12-06T18:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"My all-time favorite listed company Games Workshop $GAW is out with its H1 trading update. After a very strong Q1 Q2 seems to have been (much) slower most probably due to a fading impact from the latest Warhammer 40k release as well as lower licensing revenues. Shares are down 10% on the results which just happens from time to time with this business $GAW. No position here (stock bit too expensive for my taste) but still plenty of admiration for this company ✅👌"
X Link 2023-12-07T09:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"eDreams $EDR continues to polarize the market with its performance. The choices appear to either love it or stay the hell away. Results of a few weeks ago where top-notch yet again with strong growth in cash ebitda. Cash ebitda has now grown from roughly 11m in Q4 [--] to 34m in the latest quarter. Prime subscribers shot up from 3.6m to 5.1m in just a year a 42% jump (target of 7.25m by March '25 - translating into 180m cash ebitda). More impressively the slice of marginal cash profit from Prime increased from 54% to 64% yoy. This growth is translating into serious cash flow. Net financial debt"
X Link 2023-12-10T11:51Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements
"Gaming Innovation Group $GIGSEK is a fast growing company with (relatively) high-quality operations trading at an attractive valuation which piqued our interest. The company has strong tailwinds from a rapidly growing market should be able to continue to expand margins and has a solid management team in place. Earnings visibility is relatively high which is not reflected in the valuation. The company operates two segments Media and Platform / Sports. Media already has very strong ebitda margins and a high FCF conversion rate. Platform / Sports is a B2B platform servicing online casino and"
X Link 2023-12-14T18:05Z 18.1K followers, 54.7K engagements
"Will be providing a few comments on ADF Group $DRX next week. This company is firing on all cylinders and theres more to come. Yes I know isnt this a very cyclical business; wont business normalise etc. Well look at that too. Theres always risk but this companys outlook is as strong as ever"
X Link 2023-12-14T19:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Continued strong growth ahead for InPost $INPST in [----] with strong expansion of its International APM network planned. The UK and France will add 3k parcel lockers each Poland 2k and another 1k each in Italy and Spain for a total of 10k parcel lockers - a huge amount. $INPST is turbocharging growth. This company is so aggressive in such a sleepy market many legacy players will be shocked imo at how the market will look like in [--] years. I already mentioned that the more I look into InPost $INPST the more impressed I become of its potential. A few notes 👇on the UK opportunity which is now"
X Link 2023-12-17T13:27Z 18.1K followers, 11.7K engagements
"We discussed Zynex $ZYXI before and remain fascinated by this weird company. Zynex is a VERY speculative opportunity; definitely NOT a high-quality company but that's what makes it interesting. $ZYXI is a (low-quality) med-tech company selling electro therapy products for muscle stimulations inferential and TENS devices. To be honest we have big doubts if what the company is doing is sustainable i.c. getting reimbursed (a lot) for what appears to be commodity products (80% of revenues appear to be batteries and related supplies that are offered at much lower prices at retail). One might call"
X Link 2023-12-19T16:54Z 17.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Ok friends were moving deep into the Extreme Greed zone. What is your plan sell it all have a vacation dont know dont care double down Let me know 👇"
X Link 2023-12-19T21:54Z [----] followers, 16K engagements
"@ClarkSquareCap 🔥 🔥"
X Link 2023-12-19T21:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Liquidia $LQDA soaring after winning its patent dispute with United Therapeutics $UTHR. Not involved in this case but patent dispute wins/losses tend to be BIG deals in pharma in my experience; share price reaction 'feels' a bit muted. Again not involved but any opinions"
X Link 2023-12-20T17:46Z 12.8K followers, [----] engagements
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