# ![@TheStudyofWar Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::71298686.png) @TheStudyofWar Institute for the Study of War

The Kremlin is trying to prevent the US from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, fearing it would change the dynamics of the war. Russia is using various tactics, including rhetoric downplaying the impact of the missiles and threatening a deterioration in US-Russian relations. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have conducted long-range drone strikes against Russian targets, and Russia has launched a series of intensified strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::71298686/interactions)
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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[countries](/list/countries)  #2383 [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  #4211 [finance](/list/finance)  6.4% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  4.8% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  4% [currencies](/list/currencies)  0.8% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  0.8% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  0.8% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  0.8%

**Social topic influence**
[ukraine](/topic/ukraine) #45, [kremlin](/topic/kremlin) #12, [russia](/topic/russia) #57, [united states](/topic/united-states) #752, [iran](/topic/iran) #289, [war](/topic/war) #1840, [key](/topic/key) #53, [in the](/topic/in-the) #4817, [strike](/topic/strike) #216, [future](/topic/future) #829

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@fab87f](/creator/undefined) [@nemiconetwork](/creator/undefined) [@criticalthreats](/creator/undefined) [@letsarmukr](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@apisidraksawon1](/creator/undefined) [@stephanjaeckel](/creator/undefined) [@anthmalu](/creator/undefined) [@katstepanenko](/creator/undefined) [@javieryearson](/creator/undefined) [@kneepadhelmet](/creator/undefined) [@isa_yusibov](/creator/undefined) [@karolina_hird](/creator/undefined) [@0xinternetchild](/creator/undefined) [@cryptodaaddy](/creator/undefined) [@mlkurze](/creator/undefined) [@elie_foube16925](/creator/undefined) [@merkava1983](/creator/undefined) [@ap](/creator/undefined) [@france24](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Frontline Ltd. (FRO)](/topic/$fro)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"MORE: Ryabkov and other Kremlin officials are trying to exploit the lack of clarity about the outcome of the US-Russian Alaska Summit in August [----] to claim that the summit achieved a joint US-Russian understanding and agreement to end the war in Ukraine contrary to US accounts of the summit. NEW: Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov reiterated that the Kremlin will not sign any peace agreements to end the war in Ukraine right now. Other Key Takeaways: Ryabkov and other Kremlin officials are trying to exploit the lack of clarity about the outcome of the https://t.co/qIkthnXVpJ NEW:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2004907621061439773)  2025-12-27T13:30Z 912.8K followers, 101.6K engagements


"NEW: The Iranian regimes extreme securitization of society and brutal crackdown on protests have likely suppressed the protest movement for now. The regimes widespread mobilization of security forces is unsustainable however which makes it possible that protests could resume. The regime has also not addressed and likely will not address the underlying grievances that triggered this protest movement. Other Key Takeaways: Iranian leaders are reportedly moving their US currency reserves abroad which indicates their lack of faith in Irans banking system and may indicate concerns about the future"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2011993510572908996)  2026-01-16T02:46Z 907.9K followers, 196.6K engagements


"The Iranian Regimes Suppression of Protests: The regimes pervasive securitization measures and violent crackdown on protests appear to have suppressed protest activity for now. CTP-ISW recorded zero protests on January [--] which marks the second consecutive day that CTP-ISW has not recorded any protest activity in Iran. The regime has used unprecedented brutality to quell the recent protests and this brutality appears to have deterred some Iranians from continuing to demonstrate against the regime at least for the time being. The regimes widespread mobilization of security forces is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2012007043415122041)  2026-01-16T03:40Z 907.9K followers, 160.1K engagements


"NEW: The regime will likely tighten security around possible upcoming protest dates due to its fears of renewed unrest. It remains unclear whether the regime will securitize in targeted pulses around February [--] and Nowruz or sustain its current securitization for more than two months. Prolonged securitization would likely severely strain Irans economy and could risk exhausting security forces. More Key Takeaways: The Iranian regime appears to be concerned about Kurdish militancy in northwestern Iran which may cause the regime to divert personnel and resources toward border security and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2012355908265795851)  2026-01-17T02:46Z 907.9K followers, 83.8K engagements


"NEW Internal SDF Decision-Making: The Syrian Democratic Force (SDF) leadership may fracture over a decision to agree to Syrian President Ahmed al Sharas terms for the SDF to integrate into the Syrian state which would risk instigating serious conflict between government forces and Kurdish fighters. CTP-ISW assesses that the most likely course of action entails Abdi and a subset of more moderate SDF leaders agreeing to Sharas terms while some hardline SDF leaders refuse to capitulate and continue to fight which would lead to an insurgency. The most dangerous scenario would involve either Shara"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2014168200489951342)  2026-01-22T02:48Z 911K followers, 96.8K engagements


"2/ MORE Criticism of the Iranian Regimes Securitization: Some Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) elements do not approve of the regimes internet shutdown. An IRGC-affiliated Telegram channel said that the Iranian regimes decision to maintain the internet shutdown is counterproductive to Irans national security interest because the shutdown has fueled public resentment. Iranian Security Forces Protest Casualties: The Iranian regime reportedly acknowledged on January [--] the first reported Artesh casualty of the recent protests. Iranian Information Operation: Iranian Foreign Affairs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2014168204550009315)  2026-01-22T02:48Z 911K followers, 26.6K engagements


"Internet Shutdown in Iran: The Iranian regime has decided to restore international internet access nationwide over the next [--] hours according to Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media on January [--]. The regime may assess that the internet shutdowns negative economic consequences are more likely to reignite protests than allowing Iranian citizens to access the internet. It remains unclear whether the regime will restore international internet access to the whole population however. MORE on the SDF-Syrian Government Ceasefire: SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi may not be able to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2014911161029034143)  2026-01-24T04:00Z 908.6K followers, 117.5K engagements


"ISW is hiring We seek a full-time in-person Major Gifts Officer who will report to the Director of Development. Serving as an integral member of the ISW team the MGO will initiate manage and nurture relationships with philanthropic prospects. The MGO will serve as an organizational ambassador and will provide opportunities to match donors interests with organizational priorities"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2015137650475253993)  2026-01-24T19:00Z 910.1K followers, 33K engagements


"MORE: Kremlin officials have been claiming that the Alaska summit achieved a joint US-Russian understanding and agreement to end the war in Ukraine despite no publicly available joint documents or communiques emerging from the summit. The Kremlin is demanding that Ukraine cede the unoccupied parts of Donetsk Oblast in order to save Russia the time and resources needed to seize it militarily. Ukraine has made significant concessions as a result of the recent US-led peace talks such as working to change Ukrainian laws to allow for elections during the current period of martial law. The Kremlin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2015990649716433281)  2026-01-27T03:30Z 912.8K followers, 241.5K engagements


".@AP: @KatStepanenko a Russia researcher at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said the Kremlin has gotten more creative in the last two years with attracting enlistees including foreigners. But recruitment efforts are becoming extremely expensive for Russia which faces a slowing economy she added. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-recruits-foreigners-78285219e6e10be694e8e1e007c5b6e4 https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-recruits-foreigners-78285219e6e10be694e8e1e007c5b6e4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2016192916893376558)  2026-01-27T16:53Z 906.2K followers, 49.6K engagements


"NEW: The United States is reportedly pushing Ukraine to cede the remainder of Donetsk Oblast to Russia in exchange for US security guarantees. ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian concessions of territory that Russia is unlikely to seize quickly or easily militarily would be a strategic mistake. More The Russian military command continues to present demonstrable lies and exaggerations about Russian battlefield gains in order to push Ukraine and the West to concede to the demands that Russia remains unable to achieve militarily. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has been lying about the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2016341127515746444)  2026-01-28T02:42Z 906.3K followers, 328.8K engagements


"MORE: The Iranian regimes ongoing securitization measures which include a costly and prolonged internet shutdown are accelerating Irans economic collapse. The countrys economic collapse was the initial trigger for these demonstrations in late December [----]. The crackdowns economic consequences have struck individual Iranians and businesses alike. The Iranian rial again fell to an all-time low on January [--] (see graphic below) and the price of basic goods has increased [--] percent since mid-December. The internet shutdown costs the regime about $37 million USD daily. Iranian online businesses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2016354028347646314)  2026-01-28T03:33Z 911.5K followers, 100.8K engagements


"MORE: ISW continues to assess that Russia would need to expend significant amounts of resources time and personnel to seize the rest of Donbas. Russian forces are unlikely to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast before August [----] assuming Russian forces are able to sustain their rate of advance from late November [----]. The Russian rate of advance slowed in late December [----] and early January [----] likely in part due to adverse weather conditions and Russian efforts to seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast could take longer than ISW previously forecasted. A Ukrainian withdrawal from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2016360837015826832)  2026-01-28T04:01Z 908.1K followers, 178.1K engagements


"NEW: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the United States and Ukraine have finalized security guarantees for Ukraine. The Kremlin continues to reject Western security guarantees for Ukraine however. More - US President Donald Trump stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to a week-long moratorium on strikes against some Ukrainian energy infrastructure as the Kremlin continued to reiterate its unwillingness to commit to a long-term ceasefire. The reported week-long moratorium on energy strikes does not mark a significant Russian concession given that Russia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2017085588386480615)  2026-01-30T04:00Z 907.8K followers, 223.9K engagements


""The Russians are trying to diplomatically strongarm Ukraine and the West into giving up this territory because they 'know the fight is going to be long'." ISW's Christina Harward spoke with @FRANCE24 about the Kremlin's cognitive warfare effort: https://www.france24.com/en/russia-exaggerating-gains-in-ukraine-to-push-for-territorial-concessions https://www.france24.com/en/russia-exaggerating-gains-in-ukraine-to-push-for-territorial-concessions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2017342182974509204)  2026-01-30T21:00Z 911.4K followers, 63.1K engagements


"NEW: The Kremlin disagreed with the US position that territorial control of Donetsk Oblast remains the only unresolved issue at the US-Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations. Other Key Takeaways: The Kremlin acknowledged and reportedly agreed to US President Donald Trumps request for a temporary moratorium on striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Russian forces continue to execute Ukrainian prisoners-of-war (POW) on the battlefield in violation of international law. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast."  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2017407367118204943)  2026-01-31T01:19Z 911.2K followers, 109.4K engagements


"NEW: Iran has shown little willingness to concede to US demands on the missile program regional proxy network and nuclear capabilities. These three items form the long-standing pillars of Iranian defense strategy and changing them would require a long strategic rethink in Tehran. Other Key Takeaways: Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary (SNSC) Ali Larijani met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on January [--] to discuss current developments and bilateral economic ties according to Iranian and Russian media. Larijanis visit to Russia comes amid a flurry of diplomatic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2017413819325198586)  2026-01-31T01:45Z 906.6K followers, 99.3K engagements


"NEW: Iran may be attempting to deter a possible US strike by moving forces and conducting a live-fire naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on January [--] that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy will hold a two-day live-fire naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz starting on February [--]. A policy analyst close to the regime stated on January [--] that the exercise in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf aims to deter any possibility of a naval blockade by demonstrating Irans military resolve to counter it. Other Key Takeaways: US President"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2017728316183064822)  2026-01-31T22:34Z 911.2K followers, 130K engagements


"Iran Update January [--] 2026: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate013126 https://isw.pub/IranUpdate013126"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2017728348319887754)  2026-01-31T22:35Z 908K followers, 38.7K engagements


"Applications for the Hertog War Studies Program close in three weeks The program is an intensive two-week seminar running from July [--] to August [--]. Senior figures from the national security and military communities lead the classes. Students will engage with a rigorous curriculum spanning military theory history operations and contemporary conflicts. Students receive housing meals subsidized transportation and a stipend to ensure the seminar is a rewarding learning experience that helps prepare participants for a career in national security"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2017734704955293909)  2026-01-31T23:00Z 906K followers, 25.4K engagements


"NEW: Russian forces months of strikes have significantly degraded and damaged the Ukrainian energy grid which is now facing significant problems even during the moratorium on Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Other Key Takeaways: A US delegation met with lead Russian negotiator and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev in Miami Florida on January [--]. Belarusian balloons illegally entered Polish airspace on the night of January [--] to [--] for the second time within [--] hours. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2017742207621509201)  2026-01-31T23:30Z 907.8K followers, 50.5K engagements


"2/ Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment February [--] 2026: https://isw.pub/UkrWar020126 https://isw.pub/UkrWar020126"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018119891086114834)  2026-02-02T00:30Z 906.5K followers, 20.4K engagements


"NEW Irans Efforts to Deter a US Attack: Iranian regime officials have continued to observe and respond to ongoing discussions in Western media about US concerns about a protracted conflict in the Middle East likely as part of its effort to try to deter the United States from attacking Iran. Iranian officials are also continuing to discuss the possibility of US and Iranian strikes with other regional countries likely as part of a diplomatic effort to avoid a US strike. Iranian Missile Program: The Gulf states have reportedly warned the United States that Irans missile program could cause"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018140003885256756)  2026-02-02T01:50Z 906.4K followers, 27.8K engagements


"2/ Iran Update February [--] 2026: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate020126 https://isw.pub/IranUpdate020126"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018140005990793559)  2026-02-02T01:50Z 906.4K followers, 19.5K engagements


"MORE: Insider reports continue to demonstrate that Russia is trying to portray itself to external audiences as a willing negotiator in order to gain control over all of Donetsk Oblast through diplomatic means. Bloomberg reported on January [--] citing unspecified knowledgeable sources that Russia sees little chance of a breakthrough during ongoing peace talks. The sources noted that Russian and Ukrainian military delegations have been discussing the technical details of a possible ceasefire implementation agreement but assessed that a resolution to territorial issues will require"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018149875590865221)  2026-02-02T02:30Z 911.6K followers, 75.4K engagements


"SpaceX CEO Elon Musk restricted Starlink satellite terminals operating in Ukraine in order to counter Russias use of Starlink on drones. NEW: Russian drones struck a maternity hospital and a bus carrying miners on February [--] causing significant civilian casualties. The Kremlin continues to use issues unrelated to its war in Ukraine to push the Trump administration to give in to Russias demands regarding https://t.co/ztsZuBAnNJ NEW: Russian drones struck a maternity hospital and a bus carrying miners on February [--] causing significant civilian casualties. The Kremlin continues to use issues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018164976695816616)  2026-02-02T03:30Z 907.7K followers, 49.7K engagements


"Belarus appears to be increasing the quantity and frequency of Belarusian balloon incursions into Polish and Lithuanian airspace. The Polish Armed Forces Operational Command reported that Belarus launched balloon-like objects into Polish airspace on the night of January [--] to February [--] and noted that the balloons aimed to reconnoiter and test Polish air defense reactions. Belarus has launched balloon-like objects into Polish airspace three times in the last four days (since January 7) and Lithuania reported a record high of [--] Belarusian balloons in its airspace on the night of January [--] to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018183848857924048)  2026-02-02T04:45Z 878.1K followers, 65.5K engagements


"NEW US Policy: A senior US defense official emphasized countering the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) during his visit to South Korea as part of efforts to expand the US Forces Korea (USFK) mission to include contingencies involving the PRC. Inter-Korean Relations: North Korea fired four SRBMs possibly to signal disapproval of continued US-South Korean engagement reinforce North Korean self-reliance narratives and demonstrate missile improvements to Russia. The South Korean Ministry of Unification (MOU) and some lawmakers from the ruling Democratic Party (DP) are backing legislation to expand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018792919092912404)  2026-02-03T21:05Z 912.2K followers, 52.5K engagements


"MORE Irans Negotiation Demands: The Iranian regime appears to be altering its demands for the location and structure of its upcoming negotiations with US officials which may be an attempt to further restrict negotiations to solely focus on its nuclear program. Some unspecified Iranian regime officials have floated significant nuclear concessions with the United States but other named senior regime officials speaking to non-Western outlets have floated more limited concessions which raises doubts about the sincerity of officials speaking to Western media. Iraqi Actors Attempt to Secure the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018867106474025342)  2026-02-04T02:00Z 907.5K followers, 35.8K engagements


"NEW: Russia resumed its combined missile and drone strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of February [--] to [--] following the brief moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes. Russias overnight strike package contained an unusually high number of ballistic missiles consistent with the Kremlins ongoing efforts to stockpile missiles to maximize damage against civilian infrastructure. The February [--] to [--] strike demonstrates that Russia never intended to use the energy strikes moratorium to de-escalate the war or seriously advance the US-initiated peace negotiations."  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018897763518263359)  2026-02-04T04:01Z 885.6K followers, 136.3K engagements


"The Kremlin has previously offered short-term ceasefires to falsely portray the Kremlin as acting in good faith and feign Russias interest in peaceful war resolution while repeatedly rejecting Ukrainian and US calls for a longer or permanent moratorium on long-range strikes or a ceasefire. NEW: Russia resumed its combined missile and drone strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of February [--] to [--] following the brief moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes. Russias overnight strike package contained an unusually high number of https://t.co/FxjJCPArsF NEW:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018912400481853853)  2026-02-04T05:00Z 902.2K followers, 51.6K engagements


"MORE: North Korea reportedly launched four short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) on January [--] to test its advanced 600mm multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS) possibly to signal disapproval of US-South Korean diplomatic engagement reinforce North Korean self-reliance prior to the Party Congress and demonstrate North Korean missile enhancements to Russia. North Korean state media announced that Workers Party of Korea (WPK) General Secretary Kim Jong Un and his daughter Kim Ju Ae oversaw the missile test. North Korean media reported that the launch was meant to test the effectiveness of an"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019086044809880017)  2026-02-04T16:30Z 912.2K followers, 31.6K engagements


"Applications for the Hertog War Studies Program close in less than three weeks A highlight of the program is visiting various battlefield locations to study military history where it happened. Every year students travel to Gettysburg Pennsylvania immersing into one of the most consequential battles in US history. Through battlefield walks and group discussions led by Hertog experts students will examine leadership decision-making and the events of the Civil War in an immersive setting where peer collaboration is encouraged. This field trip is a great example of the War Studies Programs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019184281998754210)  2026-02-04T23:00Z 906.4K followers, 19.2K engagements


"Apply today: https://isw.pub/HWSPX https://isw.pub/HWSPX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019184305226797502)  2026-02-04T23:00Z 912.2K followers, 17K engagements


"NEW: Iran and the United States are expected to hold talks in Oman on February [--] despite the brief cancellation of the meeting on February [--]. The Trump administration seeks to discuss Irans nuclear program ballistic missiles and support for its proxy network. Iran continues to show inflexibility toward addressing US demands which reduces the likelihood that Iran and the United States will be able to reach a diplomatic solution. More Key Takeaways: A UK-based Middle East-focused outlet reported on February [--] that some Iranian regime policymakers believe that the only credible deterrent against"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019214995012161788)  2026-02-05T01:02Z 903.2K followers, 95.5K engagements


"2/ Read the full Iran Update February [--] 2026: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate020426 https://isw.pub/IranUpdate020426"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019215026096156891)  2026-02-05T01:02Z 912.5K followers, 18.2K engagements


"2/ Read the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment February [--] 2026: https://isw.pub/UkrWar020426 https://isw.pub/UkrWar020426 https://isw.pub/UkrWar020426 https://isw.pub/UkrWar020426"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019256719549854112)  2026-02-05T03:48Z 906.4K followers, 20.9K engagements


"Senior Kremlin officials and mouthpieces reiterated Russias commitments to its war goals and explicitly rejected Western-backed security guarantees for Ukraine likely to set information conditions to reject any peace deal that does not concede to Russian demands. NEW: US Ukrainian and Russian delegations continued trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates (UAE) on February [--]. Other Key Takeaways: Senior Kremlin officials and mouthpieces reiterated Russias commitments to its war goals and explicitly rejected Western-backed https://t.co/Vf0eMAOsqw NEW: US Ukrainian and Russian"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019425790774083841)  2026-02-05T15:00Z 912.6K followers, 22.6K engagements


"NEW: A Russian military court recently issued extensive and illegal sentences against nine deported Kherson Oblast residents. Other Key Takeaways: The Russian Investigative Committee (Sledkom) is institutionalizing its presence in schools in occupied Ukraine to prepare Ukrainian children for future service in Russias militarized law enforcement apparatus. Active-duty Russian servicemembers continue to visit schools in occupied Ukraine and engage with children and youth on the topic of military service. Russian occupation administrations are intensifying efforts to formalize the militarization"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019456739549089957)  2026-02-05T17:03Z 878.4K followers, 120K engagements


"Russian Occupation Update February [--] 2026: https://isw.pub/OccupationUpdate020526 https://isw.pub/OccupationUpdate020526"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019456762244383036)  2026-02-05T17:03Z 911.4K followers, 15K engagements


"RT @karolina_hird: Something that isn't getting talked about nearly enough amongst Ukraine's friends is that Russia is getting very close t"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019523892554133607)  2026-02-05T21:29Z 908.2K followers, [--] engagements


"RT @criticalthreats: NEW Likely Boko Haram militants massacred at least [---] civilians in northwestern Nigeria's Kwara state in one of the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019544754456035357)  2026-02-05T22:52Z 908.2K followers, [--] engagements


"NEW: There are inconsistent reports about whether US-Iran talks in Oman on February [--] will be limited to the nuclear program or also include discussions on Irans ballistic missile program and regional proxy and partner network.Iran may offer limited concessions on its nuclear program but Iran remains unlikely to make any other concessions related to its missile capabilities and its support for its partner and proxy network in the region. More Key Takeaways: Iran has reportedly continued to take steps to rebuild its nuclear program as part of its nuclear reconstitution efforts to help Irans"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019568299647070316)  2026-02-06T00:26Z 912.6K followers, 24.4K engagements


"Read the full February [--] Iran Update: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate020526 https://isw.pub/IranUpdate020526"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019568309402763457)  2026-02-06T00:26Z 879.8K followers, 19.1K engagements


"2/ Read the full assessment: https://isw.pub/UkrWar020526 https://isw.pub/UkrWar020526"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019641445641253168)  2026-02-06T05:16Z 900.3K followers, 18.7K engagements


"The Kremlin continues to reject the parts of the initial US-proposed 28-point peace plan as well as the latest US-Ukrainian-European 20-point peace plan as insufficient to address Russias demands about minority rights in Ukraine. NEW: US Ukrainian and Russian delegations continued trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on February [--]. The Kremlin is looking for new narratives to try to convince the United States and Europe not to agree to security guarantees for Ukraine. More - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei https://t.co/T808jGkwIA NEW: US Ukrainian and Russian delegations continued trilateral talks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019795831725920302)  2026-02-06T15:30Z 892K followers, 25.2K engagements


"2/ full report: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate020626 https://isw.pub/IranUpdate020626"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019921708463931754)  2026-02-06T23:50Z 892.7K followers, 18.6K engagements


"2/ Read more in the February [--] [----] Iran Update: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate020826 https://isw.pub/IranUpdate020826"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2020609951714938904)  2026-02-08T21:25Z 879.2K followers, 21.3K engagements


"Correction: ISW erroneously assessed on February [--] [----] that the Kremlin was subordinating Rosgvardia to the control of the Russian General Staff due to a mistranslation by our team. The original reports indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree establishing a General Staff of Rosgvardia. ISW also incorrectly assessed that the Russian General Staff would control parts of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations based on Russian insider reports that the Russian Security Council may be planning to abolish the ministry and merge some of its employees with Rosgvardia."  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022023963535114666)  2026-02-12T19:04Z 880.1K followers, 36.8K engagements


"Apply before February 24: https://isw.pub/HWSPX https://isw.pub/HWSPX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022083386551009374)  2026-02-12T23:00Z 880K followers, 14.9K engagements


"NEW: The United States and Europe are finalizing security and economic guarantees with Ukraine that aim to deter future Russian aggression and rebuild Ukraines post-war economy. Other Key Takeaways: The Kremlin continues to exploit the lack of clarity about the outcome of the August [----] US-Russian Alaska summit to falsely portray Ukraine not Russia as the unwilling negotiating partner. The Kremlin is reviving its use of nuclear arms control rhetoric to push the United States to make concessions on Ukraine in return for normalizing US-Russian relations. Russian forces are increasingly using"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2015965788654432551)  2026-01-27T01:51Z 878.7K followers, 531.2K engagements


"The Kremlin is demanding that Ukraine cede the unoccupied parts of Donetsk Oblast in order to save Russia the time and resources needed to seize it militarily. Ukraine has made significant concessions as a result of the recent US-led peace talks such as working to change Ukrainian laws to allow for elections during the current period of martial law. The Kremlin is attempting to blame Ukraine for delaying the peace process despite Russias demonstrated unwillingness to offer any compromises on Russias original war aims. MORE: Kremlin officials have been claiming that the Alaska summit achieved"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2016206649682169972)  2026-01-27T17:48Z 879.3K followers, 95.8K engagements


"NEW: Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev used a three-way interview with Western and Russian newswires and an ultranationalist milblogger to reaffirm that Russias demands for Ukraine remain unchanged and to reject security guarantees for Ukraine. MORE Medvedev continued to use nuclear carrots and sticks likely in an attempt to distract attention from and secure concessions during US-led peace negotiations on Ukraine. Medvedev implicitly threatened and accused Finland of dismantling Russian-Finnish relations. Medvedev subtly threatened Russians who do not support Russias war"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018515504244375628)  2026-02-03T02:42Z 878.9K followers, 251.9K engagements


"MORE: Russian plans for a summer offensive highlight Russias determination to achieve its war aims including the seizure of Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts through military means if need be. Senior Kremlin officials have repeatedly stated that Russia will continue efforts on the battlefield to achieve its aims if it cannot achieve them through negotiations. The Russian military commands intention to conduct a large-scale summer offensive even if Russian forces may struggle to achieve its objectives demonstrates the Kremlins disinterest in finding a solution to end the war via negotiations in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019969367346430351)  2026-02-07T03:00Z 878.8K followers, 73.7K engagements


"MORE: Russia used the temporary moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes to stockpile drones and missiles for devastating strikes on the nights of February [--] to [--] and February [--] to [--]. The February [--] to [--] strike used [--] missiles and [---] drones during some of the coldest temperatures Ukraine has endured all winter. The Kremlin has attempted to portray Russias adherence to the short energy infrastructure strikes moratorium as an indicator of Russias interest in good-faith negotiations. The fact that Russia conducted two sets of strikes with over [---] projectiles within six days of the lapse of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2020346856803319946)  2026-02-08T04:00Z 878.8K followers, 81.4K engagements


"NEW: US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet in Washington DC on February [--] to discuss Iran. Israeli officials have consistently said that US-Iran negotiations must include limitations on Irans ballistic missile program. Other Key Takeaways: Iran has not changed its negotiating position which makes a diplomatic breakthrough in future talks unlikely unless the United States alters its negotiating position. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Fars News reported on February [--] that Iran may target supply centers and ports in the region if"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2020609923051114724)  2026-02-08T21:25Z 878.8K followers, 50.2K engagements


"NEW: Russian forces are continuing their cognitive warfare campaign that uses small-scale cross-border attacks in previously dormant frontline areas in northern Ukraine to try to convince the West that the frontlines in Ukraine are collapsing. More Key Takeaways: Russian milbloggers continue to claim that SpaceXs recent block of unregistered Starlink terminals in Ukraine is hindering Russian combat operations in Ukraine. Russian forces continue to integrate air-to-air capabilities onto their Shahed-type drones to ensure the drones evade Ukrainian air defenders and to undermine Ukraines air"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2020626439893078019)  2026-02-08T22:30Z 879.3K followers, 129.1K engagements


"The Kremlin is trying to deflect blame for the lack of progress in negotiations away from Russia and onto Ukraine Europe and now the United States. NEW: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explicitly blamed the United States on February [--] for the lack of progress in ending Russias war against Ukraine. Other Key Takeaways: Lavrov reiterated Russias demand for effective control over Ukraines post-war government and the https://t.co/ACsNwbgRb8 NEW: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explicitly blamed the United States on February [--] for the lack of progress in ending Russias war against"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021237733721768427)  2026-02-10T15:00Z 879K followers, 22.7K engagements


"RT @TheStudyofWar: The Kremlin throttled Telegram on February [--] and [--] a significant intensification of Russias three-year campaign to r"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021922210487599261)  2026-02-12T12:19Z 878.6K followers, [---] engagements


"RT @TheStudyofWar: MORE: Iran appears to be conditioning the possibility of talks about its ballistic missile program on US concessions in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021946216289014192)  2026-02-12T13:55Z 879.1K followers, [--] engagements


"RT @TheStudyofWar: MORE: Kremlin messaging in these various interviews is consistent with Kremlin officials repeating Russias unwavering"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021949908635537825)  2026-02-12T14:09Z 879.1K followers, [--] engagements


"The Kremlin appears to be subordinating two major security institutions under Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov a Putin loyalist. Putin likely aims for these changes to protect his regime particularly as the Rosgvardia failed to engage Wagner forces during the Wagner mutiny in June [----]. NEW: Kremlin officials recently have been repeating the same messages about Russias commitment to its original war aims in Ukraine to various media sources that reach international and domestic audiences. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explicitly reiterated Russias 2021"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021962500321792357)  2026-02-12T15:00Z 878.7K followers, 21K engagements


"NEW: Russian forces increased their average rate of advance in [----] due to a new operational template supported by technological adaptations and a shift in assault tactics. Other Key Takeaways: Russian forces launched over [-----] long-range drones and over [----] missiles against Ukraine in [----]. The Russian military command largely prioritized efforts to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and establish a buffer zone in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts in [----] but failed to accomplish these goals. The orientation of Ukrainian defenses and fortified areas helped to hinder Russian advances in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2006547817540497592)  2026-01-01T02:07Z 879.8K followers, 297.2K engagements


"NEW: Iran is likely trying to deter US military action against Iran by deploying forces and conducting naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. (1/2) Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS)-affiliated media claimed on January [--] that the IRGC Navy deployed hundreds of fast missile-launching and support vessels in close proximity to the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier. Western media outlets separately reported on January [--] that the IRGC Navy will conduct a two-day live-fire exercise in the Strait of Hormuz on February [--] and [--]. Iran could respond to potential US military action by"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2017035893710721527)  2026-01-30T00:43Z 879.7K followers, 200.7K engagements


"NEW: Iran conducted two probing operations against the US Navy in the Persian Gulf likely designed to test US Navy defensive reactions and demonstrate Irans ability to threaten US forces and assets. These two incidents may be the beginning of an Iranian maritime escalation that seeks to deter a US strike by demonstrating Irans capability to challenge US naval activity. A probing action seeks to test the strength disposition and reactions of an opposing force. A surveillance drone approached the US carrier group in the Arabian Sea. It was intercepted and destroyed. It is unclear how close the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018858716498428323)  2026-02-04T01:26Z 879.5K followers, 182.7K engagements


"MORE: The Kremlin continues to explicitly reject the Western security guarantees for Ukraine that aim to prevent another Russian invasion. The Kremlin continues to demonstrate its commitment to its original war demands for a peace settlement in Ukraine particularly those that aim to destroy the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ahead of the next round of the US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi. The Kremlin continues to weaponize religion to demand restrictions on Ukraines sovereignty despite Russias own systematic religious repressions in Russia and occupied Ukraine. The Kremlin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018904849841320016)  2026-02-04T04:30Z 879.8K followers, 51.5K engagements


"NEW: US Ukrainian and Russian delegations continued trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on February [--]. The Kremlin is looking for new narratives to try to convince the United States and Europe not to agree to security guarantees for Ukraine. More - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov implied that Russia's demand for Ukrainian "neutrality" aims to turn Ukraine into a pro-Russian proxy state. - The Kremlin continues to reject the parts of the initial US-proposed 28-point peace plan as well as the latest US-Ukrainian-European 20-point peace plan as insufficient to address Russia's demands about"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019641442403017125)  2026-02-06T05:16Z 879.8K followers, 134.1K engagements


"Applications for ISW's Summer [----] Internship Program are open Interns will gain hands-on experience in research open-source analysis and communications while contributing directly to our mission in national security and conflict monitoring. We are looking for a cohort of curious driven and creative people who are ready to challenge themselves and tackle complex problems in international affairs. We encourage all to apply https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020996150291992581 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020996150291992581"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2020996150291992581)  2026-02-09T23:00Z 879.5K followers, 19.2K engagements


"MORE: Russian tactical drone strikes on civilians and civilian infrastructure along the frontline have become so pervasive that observers have described the process as a hunt or a human safari. Russia has pioneered the use of tactical drones in strikes on civilians and civilian infrastructure in the so-called kill-zone the area within 15-20 kilometers from the frontline where the saturation of tactical strike and reconnaissance drones poses an elevated risk to any personnel or equipment operating within. FPV drones should in theory enable their operators to exercise greater care in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021633628950999101)  2026-02-11T17:13Z 879.4K followers, 24.1K engagements


"2/ Iran is also pursuing multiple diplomatic tracks to try to prevent a US strike"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021804602924970128)  2026-02-12T04:32Z 879.9K followers, 16.6K engagements


"NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demonstrate that he will not be satisfied with a peace settlement that only pertains to Ukraine and does not radically restructure NATO. The Kremlin continues to forward the false narrative that Ukraines defenses are on the verge of collapse but data on Russian gains since the start of the full-scale invasion demonstrate otherwise. Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov continues to offer demonstrable lies and exaggerations about Russian battlefield gains to forward the Kremlins false narrative that a Russian military victory is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2011973472743014625)  2026-01-16T01:27Z 880K followers, 379K engagements


"Russian forces are increasingly using Starlink satellite systems to extend the range of BM-35 strike drones to conduct mid-range strikes against the Ukrainian rear. The reported 500-kilometer range of Starlink-equipped BM-35 drones places most of Ukraine all of Moldova and parts of Poland Romania and Lithuania in range of these drones if launched from Russia or occupied Ukraine. ISW has observed reports of Starlink-equipped Shahed long-range strike drones beginning in September [----] and of Rubikon equipping Molniya strike drones with Starlink systems beginning in December [----]. ISW continues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2016013301436526765)  2026-01-27T05:00Z 880K followers, 1.8M engagements


"NEW: Russian drones struck a maternity hospital and a bus carrying miners on February [--] causing significant civilian casualties. The Kremlin continues to use issues unrelated to its war in Ukraine to push the Trump administration to give in to Russias demands regarding Ukraine. Insider reports continue to demonstrate that Russia is trying to portray itself to external audiences as a willing negotiator in order to gain control over all of Donetsk Oblast through diplomatic means. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk restricted Starlink satellite terminals operating in Ukraine in order to counter Russias use of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018119883137962449)  2026-02-02T00:30Z 879.9K followers, 417.5K engagements


"Russia is building up military infrastructure near the Finnish border likely as part of wider military expansion efforts that seek to prepare the Russian force for a potential future conflict with NATO. Finnish national broadcaster Yle published satellite images between June [----] and October [----] showing Russian construction at the Rybka military base in Petrozavodsk Republic of Karelia (approximately [---] kilometers from the Finnish border). Yle reported that the Soviet-era garrison area has been mostly abandoned since the early 2000s but that the 44th Army Corps (AC Leningrad Military"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018172525549879703)  2026-02-02T04:00Z 879.9K followers, 101.5K engagements


"Belarus continues to increase the frequency of its balloon incursions into Polish airspace. The Polish Armed Forces Operational Command reported that Polish radar systems recorded the incursion of balloon-like objects into Polish airspace on the night of February [--] to [--]. The Polish Armed Forces Operational Command noted that there were fewer balloon violations than on previous nights. Belarus has launched balloon-like objects into Polish airspace four times in five days (since January 27). ISW continues to assess that Russia has de facto annexed Belarus and that Russia is likely using"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2018701009707503662)  2026-02-03T15:00Z 880K followers, 44.9K engagements


"NEW: US Ukrainian and Russian delegations continued trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates (UAE) on February [--]. Other Key Takeaways: Senior Kremlin officials and mouthpieces reiterated Russias commitments to its war goals and explicitly rejected Western-backed security guarantees for Ukraine likely to set information conditions to reject any peace deal that does not concede to Russian demands. The United States concluded a deal to transport liquified natural gas (LNG) to Ukraine through the Vertical Gas Corridor. Russian forces are intensifying their battlefield air interdiction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019256545486221340)  2026-02-05T03:47Z 879.9K followers, 58K engagements


"NEW: Iran and the United States held talks in Muscat Oman on February [--] to establish a framework for future negotiations. Iran and the United States will reportedly hold another round of talks in the coming days and Israeli media reported that the United States told Iran that it expects Iran to make a tangible and significant concession regarding its nuclear program in the next round of talks. Other Key Takeaways: Hezbollah Liaison and Coordination Unit head Wafiq Safa resigned from his position on February [--] which marks the first time that a Hezbollah official of Safas rank has stepped down."  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019921706010165678)  2026-02-06T23:50Z 879.9K followers, 118.2K engagements


"NEW: The Kremlin continues to reject any meaningful security guarantees that would protect Ukraine from complete diplomatic or military capitulation. The Russian military command is reportedly planning to deploy its likely limited strategic reserves to a planned Summer [----] offensive in southern and/or eastern Ukraine. The Russian military likely lacks sufficient reserves to both adequately prepare for such an offensive and achieve the offensives objectives however. Russian forces have been setting conditions for future offensive operations in the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk and Orikhiv-Zaporizhzhia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019946443570618414)  2026-02-07T01:28Z 880K followers, 176.2K engagements


"MORE: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated on February [--] the Kremlins rejection of Western-provided security guarantees in Ukraine and reiterated the Kremlins support of the security guarantees that Russia agreed to in the April [----] Istanbul talks. The [----] Istanbul Protocol draft document did not provide the groundwork for meaningful security guarantees and would have left Ukraine defenseless against renewed aggression. The Istanbul Protocol draft stipulated that Russia the aggressor in the war in Ukraine would be treated as a neutral guarantor state of Ukraine; that Russia and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2019961815711551986)  2026-02-07T02:30Z 879.9K followers, 32.9K engagements


"NEW: The United States and Iran will hold a new round of talks sometime early in the week of February [--]. Neither the United States nor Iran has changed their negotiating position which makes a diplomatic breakthrough unlikely if their respective positions do not change. Recent statements by Iranian officials indicate that Iran is unlikely to compromise on limits to its ballistic missile program support for its proxies and partners in the region and enrichment levels. Other Key Takeaways: The Iranian regime is reportedly continuing to develop plans to restrict international internet access to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2020250799897551214)  2026-02-07T21:38Z 880K followers, 132.6K engagements


"MORE: US pressure on Ukraine to plan for a vote on a peace agreement soon would be odd considering that the sides reportedly remain far apart on central issues and that the Kremlin continues to refuse compromises offered by both the United States and Ukraine. NEW: Russia launched another massive strike against Ukrainian energy infrastructure overnight on February [--] to [--] and specifically targeted substations that support Ukrainian nuclear power plants (NPPs). Other Keytakeaways: Russia used the temporary moratorium on energy https://t.co/SYKauFyRG6 NEW: Russia launched another massive strike"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2020327342480994466)  2026-02-08T02:42Z 880.1K followers, 240K engagements


"NEW: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explicitly blamed the United States on February [--] for the lack of progress in ending Russias war against Ukraine. Other Key Takeaways: Lavrov reiterated Russias demand for effective control over Ukraines post-war government and the size and composition of its military. Russian State Duma deputies are explicitly demanding that the United States concede to all Russian demands. Russian forces are likely falsely claiming that Ukrainian forces are conducting a counteroffensive near the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border to rectify"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021024144700145689)  2026-02-10T00:51Z 880.1K followers, 232K engagements


"NEW: Some Iranian regime elements are signaling that Iran may offer relatively insignificant nuclear-only concessions but only if the United States offers complete sanctions relief. An agreement that lifts sanctions on Iran without seriously decreasing Irans ability to expand its ballistic missile and drone program or its proxy networks would pose a long-term threat to US interests in the region by enabling Iran to reinvest in these capabilities and its proxy networks. Russian-Iranian Relations: Russia is also engaging Oman to discuss mediation efforts and appears broadly supportive of an"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021046033287880952)  2026-02-10T02:18Z 880K followers, 79.7K engagements


"MORE: Kremlin officials have been trying to push the United States to abandon the recent US-led negotiations with Ukraine and Europe in favor of a US-Russian settlement based almost entirely on Russias demands. Lavrov used a February [--] interview with TV BRICS a Russian outlet covering BRICS states and candidate states to accuse the United States of reneging on the peace proposals the United States itself allegedly proposed at the August [----] US-Russia Alaska Summit by imposing new sanctions on Russia seizing Russian shadow fleet tankers and placing secondary tariffs on importers of Russian"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021052753036870137)  2026-02-10T02:45Z 880K followers, 113.4K engagements


"Lavrovs February [--] statements are all implicit reiterations of Putins original war aims from [----] and [----] that amount to complete Ukrainian and NATO capitulation effectively signaling that any peace deal that does not address Russian demands of not only Ukraine but also of NATO and the West will not satisfy Russia. The Kremlins insistence on these demands are calls for the United States to discard the negotiations process that the United States has conducted with Ukraine and Europe since the publication of the US-proposed 28-point plan. MORE: Kremlin officials have been trying to push the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021064077267620307)  2026-02-10T03:30Z 880K followers, 140.3K engagements


"NEW: Special Report Russias FPV drone campaign in Ukraine institutionalizes intentional civilian harm as a tool of war Key Takeaways: Russia's use of first-person view (FPV) drones to strike mainly civilian targets in the Ukrainian near rear indicates a pervasive culture within the Russian Armed Forces that seeks to both weaponize and institutionalize intentional civilian harm as a purposeful tool of war. Russian drone adaptations and innovations increase the potential for civilian harm and blur the traditional lines between military and civilian targets. The tactics and practices that Russia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021298191342186960)  2026-02-10T19:00Z 880K followers, 182.9K engagements


"2/ Read the full special report: https://isw.pub/RussiaFPV https://isw.pub/RussiaFPV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021298214796677166)  2026-02-10T19:00Z 880K followers, 15.7K engagements


"NEW: North Korea may unveil new strategic capabilities at an upcoming military parade to showcase progress made under its five-year military modernization plan. Other Key Takeaways: The North Korean economy has continued to rebound due to sanctions evasion and increased trade with Russia and the PRC. That could reduce the likelihood of inter-Korean dialogue. South Korea has decided to proceed with combined military exercises with the United States despite the MOU pushing to postpone the exercises. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021335544978960443"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021335544978960443)  2026-02-10T21:28Z 880K followers, 81.8K engagements


"NEW: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov continued to explicitly blame the United States on February [--] for the lack of progress in ending Russias war against Ukraine and reinvoked the Spring [----] Istanbul talks to justify Russias rejection of Ukraine receiving meaningful security guarantees. Other Key Takeaways: The Kremlin throttled Telegram on February [--] and [--] a significant intensification of Russias three-year campaign to reassert control over the Russian information space. Russias ability to acquire foreign machine tools despite Western sanctions is reportedly allowing Russia to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021391884778692964)  2026-02-11T01:12Z 880K followers, 204.5K engagements


"The Kremlin throttled Telegram on February [--] and [--] a significant intensification of Russias three-year campaign to reassert control over the Russian information space. More The Kremlin has been engaged in a widespread censorship campaign to regain control over the Russian information space since late [----] when the Kremlin began to censor arrest and coopt Russian milbloggers who criticized the Kremlin and its methods of waging war in Ukraine. Russian authorities justified their initial efforts to deliberately restrict Telegram by blaming the platform for enabling scammers to commit fraud"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021403820194996695)  2026-02-11T02:00Z 880K followers, 69.6K engagements


"NEW US-Iran Negotiations: Any US-Iran deal that does not limit Irans ability to develop its ballistic missile program and support the Axis of Resistance would harm US interests in the Middle East. Irans insistence on continuing to develop its ballistic missile program and support the Axis of Resistance comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with US President Donald Trump on February [--] reportedly to urge Trump not to accept a deal with Iran that only addresses the nuclear issue. The Iranian Regimes Ongoing Securitization Efforts: The Iranian regimes exacerbation of its"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021419919980585343)  2026-02-11T03:03Z 880K followers, 59.5K engagements


"NEW: Kremlin officials recently have been repeating the same messages about Russias commitment to its original war aims in Ukraine to various media sources that reach international and domestic audiences. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explicitly reiterated Russias [----] and [----] demands of NATO and Ukraine in his February [--] interview with a Russian propagandist channel. MORE - The United States Ukraine and Russia may hold another round of trilateral talks on February [--] to [--]. - The Kremlin appears to be subordinating two major security institutions under Russian Chief of the General"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021769946053624260)  2026-02-12T02:14Z 880K followers, 185.8K engagements


"NEW Iranian Efforts to Delay Potential US Military Action: Iran may be floating the possibility of talks about Irans ballistic missile program in an effort to delay possible US military action and extract concessions from the United States in nuclear negotiations. This signaling may be intended to drag out the current talks by leaving open the possibility for discussions about other issues apart from the nuclear issue. Iran may calculate that continuing to reject any possibility of discussing its ballistic missile program with the United States could increase the risk of US or Israeli"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021778582129807565)  2026-02-12T02:49Z 880K followers, 81.8K engagements


"2/ Iran Update February [--] [----] w/ @criticalthreats: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate021126 https://isw.pub/IranUpdate021126"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021778585091186711)  2026-02-12T02:49Z 880K followers, 15.4K engagements


"MORE: Kremlin messaging in these various interviews is consistent with Kremlin officials repeating Russias unwavering commitment to its demands. Lavrov and Medvedev both referenced the agreements to end the war that the United States and Russia allegedly made at the August [----] Alaska Summit. Lavrov and Medvedev directly pointed to Russian President Vladimir Putins June [----] speech to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) wherein Putin demanded that Ukraine and NATO capitulate to Russias original war demands and cede the illegally annexed Luhansk Donetsk Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021796406822887538)  2026-02-12T04:00Z 880.1K followers, 40.1K engagements


"MORE: Iran appears to be conditioning the possibility of talks about its ballistic missile program on US concessions in the current nuclear talks. Iran may calculate that prolonging the talks with the United States provides Iran with additional time to reconstitute its ballistic missile program which Iran may calculate would raise the costs of US or Israeli military action against Iran. NEW Iranian Efforts to Delay Potential US Military Action: Iran may be floating the possibility of talks about Irans ballistic missile program in an effort to delay possible US military action and extract"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021804600047624667)  2026-02-12T04:32Z 880K followers, 48.4K engagements


"3/ US government officials have discussed seizing tankers involved in transporting Iranian oil but refrained from doing so due to concerns over Irans near-certain retaliation and the impact that tanker seizures would have on international oil markets according to unspecified US officials speaking to the Wall Street Journal on February 10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021804605177258080)  2026-02-12T04:32Z 880K followers, 16.3K engagements


""The higher death rate may be tied to Russia using fewer armored vehicles which are valuable but easily detectable by drone and instead attacking with only infantry" ISW's @KatStepanenko told @ForeignPolicy. "The increase may also be tied to the Kremlin pressuring its forces to make gains as a way of influencing the United States to stop supporting Ukraine. 'The intensity of Russian assaults has remained high because the Kremlin needs to create that perception that its winning' she said." Read the full story:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021970217463644612)  2026-02-12T15:30Z 880K followers, 28.8K engagements


"MORE: ISW has created a dataset of confirmed FPV drone strikes against civilian targets. While the majority of the human safari discourse since [----] has focused on Russian FPV strikes on civilian targets along the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine ISWs analysis shows that this practice is not geographically isolated and is in fact pervasive across the entire frontline in Ukraine. The set of civilian targets ISW identified is diverse across the entire theater but can generally be categorized as individual civilians (individuals generally walking along roads or open spaces); moving or stationary"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021977596939186652)  2026-02-12T16:00Z 880K followers, 23.3K engagements


"MORE: The North Korean economy has continued to rebound due to sanctions evasion and increased trade with Russia and the Peoples Republic of China (PRC). Economic recovery could embolden Kim Jong Un and decrease the likelihood that he engages the United States and South Korea diplomatically. The North Korean GDP growth rate rebounded from [----] percent in [----] to [---] percent in [----] and [---] percent in [----]. North KoreaRussia cooperation likely contributed to this growth alongside weakening United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sanctions enforcement against the regime since [----]. North Koreas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2021995213150204361)  2026-02-12T17:10Z 880K followers, 24.3K engagements


"NEW: An approaching Russian administrative deadline is likely to enable the systematic removal of vulnerable Ukrainian children from their homes and families in occupied areas. Other Key Takeaways: The Sevastopol occupation administration is preparing to install a cadre of loyal Russian veterans in the municipal government. Russia is building physical military infrastructure in occupied Ukraine to support Russian military operations on the frontline. The Kherson Oblast occupation administration has drastically shortened the deadline for residents to re-register ownership of real estate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022007590717141290)  2026-02-12T17:59Z 880K followers, 34K engagements


"Russian Occupation Update February [--] 2026: https://isw.pub/OccupationUpdate021226 https://isw.pub/OccupationUpdate021226"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022007613261516988)  2026-02-12T17:59Z 880K followers, 13.5K engagements


"Applications for the Hertog War Studies Program close in two weeks The program runs from July [--] to August [--] in Washington DC. Students will engage with a rigorous curriculum spanning military theory history operations and contemporary conflicts. The Hertog War Studies Program is an interdisciplinary program that seeks candidates from all backgrounds Successful candidates have majored in philosophy math computer science engineering biology chemistry physics literature foreign languages classics and psychology as well as international relations and security studies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022083364140863554)  2026-02-12T23:00Z 880.1K followers, 17.2K engagements


"NEW: Russia is blocking WhatsApp and other Western social media platforms media outlets and means of bypassing internet restrictions as part of an intensification of the Kremlins campaign to reassert control over the Russian information space and prevent access to the global internet. More - Ukrainian forces are conducting localized and opportunistic counterattacks near the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border likely to take advantage of recent blocks on Starlink terminals and Telegram. - Ukrainian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Russian"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022131845119234269)  2026-02-13T02:12Z 880K followers, 209.4K engagements


"NEW: US Central Commands (CENTCOM) withdrawal from key bases in Syria illustrates that the United States is gradually shifting its counter-Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) framework to engage with the Syrian government rather than the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). CENTCOM confirmed on February [--] that US forces completed their withdrawal from al Tanf Garrison in the central Syrian desert as part of a deliberate and conditions-based transition. Syrian government forces backfilled the United States at the base. The Syrian government has the tools to be an effective US counter-ISIS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022142208011366784)  2026-02-13T02:54Z 880K followers, 104.7K engagements


"MORE: The Kremlins restrictions against WhatsApp and other Western social media platforms news outlets and online services follow Russia's throttling of Telegram on February [--] and [--]. The Kremlin is likely intensifying efforts to restrict access to Telegram WhatsApp and other Western social media platforms news sites and internet services in order to incentivize Russians to switch to the state-controlled messenger app Max as previous Russian efforts to do so have been largely ineffective. ISW will outline the Kremlins intensified efforts to regain control over the Russian information space"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022150910168678679)  2026-02-13T03:28Z 880K followers, 38.3K engagements


"Iranian Ballistic Missile Program: The Iranian regime is unlikely to make any concessions that would limit its ability to produce and maintain its ballistic missile stockpile due to the centrality of the missile program in Iranian defensive and deterrence strategies. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS)-affiliated outlet Defa Press published an op-ed on February [--] in which it suggested that strengthening Irans defense readiness and missile capabilities could increase Irans leverage in negotiations with the United States. NEW: US Central Commands (CENTCOM) withdrawal from key bases in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022158795754156114)  2026-02-13T04:00Z 880K followers, 42.3K engagements


"MORE: Ukrainian forces are conducting localized and opportunistic counterattacks near the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border likely to take advantage of recent blocks on Starlink terminals and Telegram. Geolocated footage published on February [--] shows Russian strikes against static Ukrainian positions east of the Haichur River including east of and in southern Dobropillya and north of Varvarivka (both northwest of Hulyaipole). This footage indicates that Ukrainian forces likely maintained control of these positions prior to February [--] and are likely using localized"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022166343819137513)  2026-02-13T04:30Z 880.1K followers, 72.4K engagements


"RT @TheStudyofWar: MORE: Ukrainian forces are conducting localized and opportunistic counterattacks near the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhia Obla"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022302775460200834)  2026-02-13T13:32Z 880K followers, [---] engagements


"RT @TheStudyofWar: Iranian Ballistic Missile Program: The Iranian regime is unlikely to make any concessions that would limit its ability t"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022316593020010783)  2026-02-13T14:27Z 880K followers, [--] engagements


"RT @criticalthreats: NEW Eritrea & Ethiopia have reportedly begun military buildups in northern Ethiopia after recent clashes between Eth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022318287732752749)  2026-02-13T14:33Z 880K followers, [--] engagements


"MORE: South Korea has decided to proceed with combined military exercises with the United States despite the Ministry of Unification (MOU) pushing to postpone the exercises. The United States and South Korea will conduct the annual combined Freedom Shield (FS) exercise from March [--] to [--]. The MOU has advocated for postponing the combined exercise to avoid provoking North Korea and preserve prospects for dialogue. North Korea condemned the exercise in [----] as a nuclear war rehearsal and vowed to strengthen its response capabilities to suppress military adventurism by hostile states. NEW: North"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022324909314093156)  2026-02-13T15:00Z 880K followers, 23.2K engagements


"RT @TheStudyofWar: MORE: The Kremlins restrictions against WhatsApp and other Western social media platforms news outlets and online ser"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022336227924750668)  2026-02-13T15:45Z 880K followers, [--] engagements


"MORE: The primary goal of Russian FPV strikes on Ukraine is to make civilian life in near-rear areas untenable.Ukrainian civilians living in near-rear areas across the entire frontline have described a pervasive fear that a drone might strike at any time. This constant sense of fear exacerbated by the high levels of drone saturation in low-altitude air space creates an impression that civilians cannot leave their homes to fulfil even the most basic tasks. NEW: Special Report Russias FPV drone campaign in Ukraine institutionalizes intentional civilian harm as a tool of war Key Takeaways:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022375241759023248)  2026-02-13T18:20Z 880K followers, 22.7K engagements


"NEW: The PLAs newest amphibious assault vessel the Type [---] landing helicopter dock (LHD) Sichuan could be equipped with as many as six GJ-21 naval stealth drones. The Type [---] will likely use the GJ-21 to support long-distance PLA Navy (PLAN) deployments. Other Key Takeaways: The PLA may be improving its ability to use unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to conduct aerial resupply missions for its ground forces. The PLA could use this capability to enhance over-the-beach (OTB) resupply a potential logistical weak point during an invasion of Taiwan."  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022399874466222348)  2026-02-13T19:57Z 880K followers, 35.3K engagements


"2/ Read more in the February [--] [----] China & Taiwan Update: https://isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanUpdate021326 https://isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanUpdate021326"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022399879117705235)  2026-02-13T19:58Z 880K followers, 14.3K engagements


"RT @criticalthreats: Upcoming Event Next Thursday February [--] AEI and CTP will host a panel to discuss the rapidly evolving geopolitica"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022413107549941793)  2026-02-13T20:50Z 880K followers, [--] engagements


"NEW: Iranian officials are refusing to negotiate limits to Irans ballistic missile program because the ballistic missile program forms an integral part of Iranian defense strategy. Any changes to this strategy would require a strategic rethink that would take months if not years. Other Key Takeaways: The United States smuggled [----] Starlink terminals into Iran during the recent protest wave in order to help protesters circumvent internet shut-offs and overthrow the regime according to US officials speaking to the Wall Street Journal. The regime has taken extreme steps to stop protesters use"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022462501145719042)  2026-02-14T00:06Z 880K followers, 106K engagements


"Iran Update February [--] 2026: https://isw.pub/IranUpdate021326 https://isw.pub/IranUpdate021326"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022462534742159546)  2026-02-14T00:06Z 880K followers, 16.3K engagements


"NEW: Western reporting suggests that the United States has accepted Russias demanded sequence of having Ukraine cede territory to Russia before receiving formal US or European security guarantee commitments. Other Key Takeaways: Meaningful security guarantees are crucial to any peace agreement that allows Russia to occupy parts of Ukraine especially if Ukraine withdraws from territory it currently holds. Putins rejection of meaningful Western security guarantees for Ukraine is a greater impediment to a prospective peace deal than Ukraines position on ceding its territories. The Kremlin likely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022523577963004389)  2026-02-14T04:09Z 880K followers, 117.9K engagements


"Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment February [--] 2026: https://isw.pub/UkrWar021326 https://isw.pub/UkrWar021326"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022523609835561016)  2026-02-14T04:09Z 880K followers, 17.6K engagements


"MORE: Russia is unlikely to accept any meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine even if the United States and Ukraine concede to Russias territorial demands. The sequence of agreements that Russia is insisting on and that the United States has reportedly accepted thus entails Ukrainian surrender of critical territory with no assurance of receiving necessary guarantees against future Russian aggression. NEW: Western reporting suggests that the United States has accepted Russias demanded sequence of having Ukraine cede territory to Russia before receiving formal US or European security"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022532503462887608)  2026-02-14T04:45Z 880K followers, 43.1K engagements


"Meaningful security guarantees are crucial to any peace agreement that allows Russia to occupy parts of Ukraine especially if Ukraine withdraws from territory it currently holds. NEW: Western reporting suggests that the United States has accepted Russias demanded sequence of having Ukraine cede territory to Russia before receiving formal US or European security guarantee commitments. Other Key Takeaways: Meaningful security guarantees are crucial to https://t.co/jGUYiuttZA NEW: Western reporting suggests that the United States has accepted Russias demanded sequence of having Ukraine cede"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022679725022547989)  2026-02-14T14:30Z 880K followers, 15.9K engagements


"The Kremlin likely sees an opportunity to manipulate the US-led negotiations process into another means through which Russia can achieve its unchanging military and political objectives which it has failed to achieve in nearly four years of war. NEW: Western reporting suggests that the United States has accepted Russias demanded sequence of having Ukraine cede territory to Russia before receiving formal US or European security guarantee commitments. Other Key Takeaways: Meaningful security guarantees are crucial to https://t.co/jGUYiuttZA NEW: Western reporting suggests that the United States"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022694825490026544)  2026-02-14T15:30Z 880.1K followers, 16.4K engagements


"Russian President Vladimir Putins unwavering determination to conquer more Ukrainian territory and gain full political control over Ukraine is severely degrading Russias military and economy at the cost of the Russian population and Russia will increasingly have to reckon with this degradation in the coming year. NEW: Western reporting suggests that the United States has accepted Russias demanded sequence of having Ukraine cede territory to Russia before receiving formal US or European security guarantee commitments. Other Key Takeaways: Meaningful security guarantees are crucial to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2022709924481134909)  2026-02-14T16:30Z 880K followers, 16K engagements

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