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# ![@TheStudyofWar Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::71298686.png) @TheStudyofWar Institute for the Study of War

The Kremlin is trying to prevent the US from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, fearing it would change the dynamics of the war. Russia is using various tactics, including rhetoric downplaying the impact of the missiles and threatening a deterioration in US-Russian relations. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have conducted long-range drone strikes against Russian targets, and Russia has launched a series of intensified strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

### Engagements: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::71298686/interactions)
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[countries](/list/countries)  #7708 [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  #4051 [finance](/list/finance)  XXXX%

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[ukraine](/topic/ukraine) #178, [russia](/topic/russia) #243, [kremlin](/topic/kremlin) #29, [$fro](/topic/$fro) #16, [vladimir putin](/topic/vladimir-putin) #60, [moscow](/topic/moscow) #157, [theory](/topic/theory) #1609, [future](/topic/future) #679, [united states](/topic/united-states) 5.08%, [frame](/topic/frame) #1541

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**Top assets mentioned**
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### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"NEW: Russian state media is leveraging Russian President Vladimir Putins recent statements to intensify the false narrative that the frontline in Ukraine will imminently collapse likely in an effort to coerce the West and Ukraine into capitulating to Russian demands that Russia cannot secure itself militarily. ISW continues to assess that the frontline in Ukraine is not facing imminent collapse. Russia launched another combined missile and drone strike primarily targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure in Kyiv Oblast overnight on November XX and XX killing at least three civilians and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1994956704627278324)  2025-11-30T02:28Z 759.6K followers, 552.9K engagements


"Putin attempted to preemptively deflect blame onto Europe for Russias rejection of any peace plan iterations ahead of the December X US-Russian meeting. High ranking Kremlin officials repeatedly indicated in recent weeks that the Kremlin was not going to accept any peace agreement that did not meet Russias maximalist demands including the US-proposed original 28-point peace plan. The Kremlin is likely setting conditions to blame Europes insertion of non-starters into any peace plan as the reason for Russias rejection essentially using Europe as a scapegoat for Russias own obstruction of the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1996263166075158939)  2025-12-03T17:00Z 759.6K followers, 63.5K engagements


"MORE: The Kremlin continues to advance a false narrative that Ukraines front line and political stability are on the verge of collapse in an effort to convince the West to capitulate to Russian demands that Russia cannot secure militarily. ISW continues to assess that a Russian battlefield victory is neither imminent nor inevitable and that the Russian war effort has vulnerabilities the West has not exploited. Prominent Russian milbloggers continue to contradict the Kremlins efforts to portray Russian victory in Ukraine as imminent or inevitable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1995342090289422832)  2025-12-01T04:00Z 759.6K followers, 90.5K engagements


"NEW: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that Russian President Vladimir Putins theory of victory and negotiating tactics assume that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition. MORE🧵(1/3) Russian officials continue to falsely frame recent Russian advances on the battlefield as an indication that a Russian victory is imminent and inevitable. Kremlin officials continued to refuse to publicly discuss the outcomes of the December X US-Russia meeting as ISW previously forecasted. The Kremlin is reigniting narratives that Odesa City is a Russian city. High-ranking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1996438506491580651)  2025-12-04T04:36Z 759.6K followers, 367.6K engagements


"The current Russian force composition is not optimized to achieve or exploit a collapse of Ukrainian defenses. The war in Ukraine has become largely positional and Russian forces writ large are sufficiently degraded such that they cannot currently conduct maneuver warfare at the scale necessary for rapid operational-level advances that restore maneuver to the battlefield. Russian forces have become optimized to fight positional warfare with low-quality personnel insufficient armor and mechanized equipment stores and poor command and control. Russian forces are currently conducting positional"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1994815875698848164)  2025-11-29T17:09Z 759.6K followers, 195.3K engagements


"Putin exaggerated Russias claimed seizure of Pokrovsk as strategically important for large scale breakthroughs. ISW has not observed evidence to confirm the complete Russian seizure of Pokrovsk but Russias seizure of the town in the near future is unlikely to produce rapid Russian advances. Putin claimed on December X that Pokrovsk is a good base for achieving all the objectives that Putin set at the beginning of the war. Putin claimed that Pokrovsk offers Russian forces the ability to advance in any direction that the Russian General Staff deems most promising. Putins statements overestimate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1996232967811895609)  2025-12-03T15:00Z 759.6K followers, 162.6K engagements


"NEW: Former Iraqi Prime Minister and State of Law Coalition head Nouri al Maliki reportedly told the United States via unidentified mediators that he would disarm Iranian-backed Iraqi militias if the United States supports his bid to become prime minister according to an unidentified senior Iraqi official speaking to a Kurdish journalist on December X. Maliki would likely attempt to transform elements of the Iraqi security establishment including the PMF into a force that he could use to enhance his personal power as prime minister. Other Key Takeaways: Iranian-backed Iraqi actors reportedly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1996774239328678108)  2025-12-05T02:50Z 759.6K followers, 61.6K engagements


"NEW: Taiwanese President Lai announced the introduction of the largest special defense budget in Taiwanese history. The proposed budget would markedly improve Taiwanese capabilities and efforts to implement an asymmetric defense to deter a PRC invasion. Other Key Takeaways: The KMT and TPP are organizing opposition to the special defense budget which could jeopardize Taiwanese national defense and international perceptions of Taiwanese resilience. The KMT has echoed CCP talking points framing the spending as provocative. The indigenously produced Taiwanese Hai Kun submarine faces continued"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1997063425604616617)  2025-12-05T21:59Z 759.6K followers, 47.9K engagements


"2/ Read more in the December X 2025 China & Taiwan Update w/ @AEIfdp:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1997063429509824805)  2025-12-05T21:59Z 759.6K followers, 18.6K engagements


"NEW: Russian officials and state media continue to set information conditions to reject the US-proposed 28-point peace plan indicating that the Kremlin is actively conditioning the Russian people to not accept anything less than a full victory in Ukraine. 🧵(1/3) Other Key Takeaways: Ukrainian American and European delegations will meet on November XX to discuss the US-proposed peace plan to end the war. Ukrainian military officials continue to indicate that Ukrainian forces are pushing back Russian efforts to seize Kupyansk in contrast to repeated Russian claims of seizing the town. The"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1992398779132088659)  2025-11-23T01:04Z 759.4K followers, 529.1K engagements


"Putin indicated that Russia does not recognize the US-proposed peace plan as a serious agreement and indicated that Russia is not interested in ending the war on the Trump administrations desired rapid timeline. Putins discussion of the US peace proposal suggests that the Kremlin views the peace proposal as a suggestion rather than a decisive effort to end the war in Ukraine and is setting information conditions to stall the peace process on this basis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1994821156793454843)  2025-11-29T17:30Z 759.3K followers, 379.7K engagements


"The Russian economy continues to show signs of fracturing as Russia continues to prioritize its wartime economy over stability. Putin signed a law on November XX increasing the Value-Added Tax (VAT) a federal tax imposed on most Russian goods and services domestically from XX to XX percent likely to buttress federal budget deficits. Putin also signed into law approving the 2026 to 2028 federal budget which allocates XXXXXXX trillion rubles (roughly $X trillion) for 2026 XXXXXXX trillion rubles (roughly $XXX trillion) for 2027 and XXXXXXX trillion rubles (roughly $XXXX trillion) for 2028 and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1994987252360122793)  2025-11-30T04:30Z 759.2K followers, 96.6K engagements


"2/ Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment December X 2025:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1996103732443148305)  2025-12-03T06:26Z 759.5K followers, 28.5K engagements


"MORE: The Kremlin is setting conditions to frame any future agreement to not attack and seize Odesa and Mykolaiv cities as an alleged Russian concession in peace negotiations even though Russia is currently incapable of seizing these cities. These Kremlin statements in the past days are likely part of a cognitive warfare effort aimed at influencing the ongoing peace negotiations. Russian forces are notably not in a position to make such large-scale advances to take Odesa or Mykolaiv cities either by land or sea. The Kremlin may also be incorporating threats of kinetic action into this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1996987940015350172)  2025-12-05T17:00Z 759.6K followers, 34.1K engagements


"NEW The Critical Importance of Ukraines Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast(1/3) Kremlin officials are reportedly demanding that Ukraine cede to Russia strategically vital unoccupied territory in Donetsk Oblast and freeze the frontline in other areas as part of a ceasefire agreement. The surrender of the rest of Donetsk Oblast as the prerequisite of a ceasefire with no commitment to a final peace settlement ending the war would force Ukraine to abandon its "fortress belt" the main fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014 with no guarantee that fighting will not resume. Putin's"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1955320230109904911)  2025-08-12T17:27Z 759.5K followers, 576.5K engagements


"NEW: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US-proposed peace plan aims to ensure Ukraines independence sovereignty and economic development during the US-Ukrainian talks in Hallandale Beach Florida on November XX. Other Key Takeaways: Russian information space voices continue to argue that the Kremlin will likely reject a ceasefire or any iteration of the US-proposed peace plan because the Kremlin views these efforts as inconsequential and as a hindrance to Russias goals in Ukraine and globally. The Kremlin continues to advance a false narrative that Ukraines front line and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1995317851440263220)  2025-12-01T02:23Z 759.5K followers, 429.4K engagements


"Seizing the Initiative against Russia: Putting the United States in Control by @nataliabugayova 1/ The US should adapt a no sanctuary policy when it comes to Russia war machine. The Kremlins strategic assets key to Russias war enjoy sanctuaries in the shadow of the Wests reactive posture. 2/ One such example is the largely unsanctioned Rosatom enterprise Russias state nuclear energy cooperation that is key to Russias operations in Europe in the Arctic and in Africa. Rosatom is complicit in human rights violations at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant which it illegally occupies. Rosatom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1995568766067884188)  2025-12-01T19:00Z 759.6K followers, 41.1K engagements


"NEW: US and Ukrainian delegations reportedly narrowed down the initial US-proposed 28-point peace plan to XX points. Other Key Takeaways: The persistent Russian rate of advance does not indicate that Russian forces will imminently seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast. Russian officials and ultranationalist voices continue rejecting the original and revised US-proposed peace plan drafts and are attempting to portray Europe as responsible for the Russian rejection. Ukrainian forces maintain a limited presence and continue to counterattack within Pokrovsk indicating that Russian forces likely remain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1993190439134912908)  2025-11-25T05:30Z 759.6K followers, 378K engagements


"NEW: The frontline in Ukraine is not facing imminent collapse despite recent Russian gains and Kremlin assertions. More Key Takeaways: Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that Russia does not recognize the US-proposed peace plan as a serious agreement and indicated that Russia is not interested in ending the war on the Trump administrations desired rapid timeline. Putin reiterated that Russia cannot sign any peace or other agreements with the current or future Ukrainian government and reiterated accusations that any Ukrainian government not under the Kremlins control is illegitimate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1994656800965075050)  2025-11-29T06:36Z 759.6K followers, 461.8K engagements


"MORE: Though the situation in specific sectors of the frontline is serious especially in the Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole directions most of Putins assertions are exaggerated and do not correspond to the battlefield reality he claims to represent nor do they indicate that the frontlines in Ukraine will collapse imminently.🧵 (1/3)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1994796989628788774)  2025-11-29T15:53Z 759.6K followers, 243.6K engagements


"The Kremlin is reigniting narratives that Odesa City is a Russian city. Russian officials renewal of these narratives in December 2025 likely aims to support the Kremlins ongoing cognitive warfare effort to portray Russia as capable of protracting the war to achieve its goals and a Russian victory as ultimately inevitable. The Kremlin may also aim to use repeated narratives over the years about Odesa City to set conditions to justify renewed aggression against Ukraine following a future peace settlement in the name of protecting ethnic Russians and ancestral Russian lands. ISW continues to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1996474680459542680)  2025-12-04T07:00Z 759.6K followers, 63.9K engagements


"NEW: Russian federal agencies continue to sponsor programs that facilitate the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia and expose them to Russian industry culture and patriotic history. Other Key Takeaways: The Russian government has codified and institutionalized the forced Russification and integration of occupied Ukraine as a matter of state policy. Ukrainian children continue to face intense Russian militarization efforts in the form of sports competitions and educational lectures. Russia has already begun imposing its occupation policies on residents of Pokrovsk a town that Russian"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1996618121709261201)  2025-12-04T16:30Z 759.6K followers, 45.5K engagements


"NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his commitment to his original war aims from 2021 and 2022 and unwillingness to compromise during an interview with Indian media likely as part of the Kremlins efforts to shape the international information space during the ongoing negotiations process. Other Key Takeaways: Other Kremlin officials continued to publicly display their commitment to Putins original war aims. The Kremlin is setting conditions to frame any future agreement to not attack and seize Odesa and Mykolaiv cities as an alleged Russian concession in peace negotiations even"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1996765906148483206)  2025-12-05T02:17Z 759.6K followers, 295.6K engagements


"NEW: US and Ukrainian officials continued peace talks to end the war in Ukraine in Miami Florida on December X and 5.(1/2) Available open-source information indicates that Russian forces have not encircled Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad as of December X as Russian forces continue efforts to complete the encirclement of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket. Russian forces are attempting to completely deny Ukrainian tactical- and operational-level logistics to the Pokrovsk direction using drones to achieve effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI). Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian oil"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1997110937556230395)  2025-12-06T01:08Z 759.6K followers, 260.5K engagements


"NEW: Kremlin officials continue to demonstrate Russias unwillingness to compromise to end Russias war against Ukraine. Putin is trying to portray the Russian economy as able to support a protracted war in Ukraine likely to buttress the ongoing Russian cognitive warfare effort falsely claiming that a Russian victory is inevitable. Russia is reportedly planning to foment protests in Ukraine likely to support the longstanding Kremlin narrative that the Ukrainian government is illegitimate. Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Pokrovsk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1998207842155745341)  2025-12-09T01:47Z 759.6K followers, 58.5K engagements


"The reported proposed peace plan would deprive Ukraine of critical defensive positions and capabilities necessary to defend against future Russian aggression apparently in exchange for nothing. ISW continues to assess that ceding the remainder of Donetsk Oblast to Russia and freezing the frontline in southern Ukraine would disproportionately favor Russia. Donetsk Oblast contains land that is vital for Ukraine including the Fortress Belt Ukraines main defensive line in the oblast since 2014 and includes cities that are vital defense industrial and logistics hubs for Ukrainian forces. Russia"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1991491970523365806)  2025-11-20T13:01Z 759.6K followers, 311.8K engagements


"MORE: A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger observed that the Russian state media following Putins November XX press conference is widely spreading false claims that the frontline in Ukraine is collapsing as Ukrainian forces desert and surrender en masse and leave large areas undefended; that Russian forces will soon drive on Kyiv City; and that Russian forces have already defeated Ukrainian forces and only have to finish them off." The milblogger affirmed that the frontline is not collapsing; that Russia is far from victory; that Russian forces maintain the initiative at high personnel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1994964717077406136)  2025-11-30T03:00Z 759.6K followers, 191.4K engagements


"NEW: US-Ukrainian talks reportedly continued in Florida on December X ahead of US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoffs meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on December X to present the US-Ukrainian peace proposal. The Kremlin is setting conditions to refrain from publicly discussing the outcomes of the December X US-Russian meeting possibly in order to obfuscate Russias likely rejection of the US-Ukrainian peace proposal. Other Key Takeaways + Full Assessment Prominent Russian milbloggers continue to undermine the Kremlins effort to portray a Russian victory in Ukraine as"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1995694067045249328)  2025-12-02T03:18Z 759.6K followers, 319.1K engagements


"The Kremlin likely seeks to avoid framing Russia as an impediment to ending the war in Ukraine if Moscow rejects the peace deal that the United States will present to Russia and that Ukraine agreed to. Russia previously rejected several US-proposed ceasefires that Ukraine agreed to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1995977215461192058)  2025-12-02T22:03Z 759.6K followers, 65.1K engagements


"NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the US-Ukrainian peace proposal during his meeting with a US delegation in Moscow on December X and remains highly unlikely to accept any compromises short of his original war goals. MORE (1/2) Putin exaggerated Russias claimed seizure of Pokrovsk as strategically important for large scale breakthroughs. Putin also intensified efforts to portray the Russian economy as resilient and able to support protracted hostilities in Ukraine in the lead up to the December X meeting. The Kremlins recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1996103729439723614)  2025-12-03T06:26Z 759.6K followers, 326.7K engagements


"Rubio stated on December X in an interview with Fox News that Putin appears to be the most difficult party in the peace negotiations process. Rubio amplified Putins recent statement that Russia will achieve its objectives no matter the cost or timeline and noted that this is Putins actual mentality about his war in Ukraine. Putins long-held theory of victory for the war in Ukraine is predicated on the assumption that the Russian military and economy can outlast and overcome both Western support for Ukraine and Ukraines own ability to continue defending itself against Russian aggression. Rubio"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1996451903002304537)  2025-12-04T05:30Z 759.6K followers, 132.6K engagements


"NEW: Iran is reportedly prioritizing the rapid restoration of its ballistic missile production capacity over other aims such as the reconstruction of its nuclear program. This prioritization signals that Iran views the restoration of its missile capabilities as an immediate strategic priority likely because it is more readily achievable in the short term. (1/2) Other Key Takeaways: The United Arab Emirates (UAE)-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) which is part of the Yemeni government intends to establish an independent state in southern Yemen. Saudi Arabia and at least some Yemeni"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1998560186705846687)  2025-12-10T01:07Z 759.6K followers, 11.1K engagements


"2/ Iran Update December X 2025:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1998560217793982878)  2025-12-10T01:07Z 759.6K followers, 9351 engagements