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# ![@TheRealPlanC Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1301215504686694400.png) @TheRealPlanC PlanC

PlanC posts on X about bitcoin, level, longterm, future the most. They currently have XXXXXXX followers and XXX posts still getting attention that total XXXXXX engagements in the last XX hours.

### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1301215504686694400/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1301215504686694400/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- X Week XXXXXXX -XX%
- X Month XXXXXXXXX +1.40%
- X Months XXXXXXXXXX +169%
- X Year XXXXXXXXXX +119%

### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::1301215504686694400/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1301215504686694400/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- X Week XXX -XX%
- X Month XXX +14%
- X Months XXX +292%
- X Year XXXXX +70%

### Followers: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1301215504686694400/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1301215504686694400/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- X Week XXXXXXX +0.06%
- X Month XXXXXXX +1.60%
- X Months XXXXXXX +5.50%
- X Year XXXXXXX +11%

### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1301215504686694400/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1301215504686694400/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  #388 [finance](/list/finance)  XXXX% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  XXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks)  XXXX%

**Social topic influence**
[bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) #156, [level](/topic/level) 3.28%, [longterm](/topic/longterm) #851, [future](/topic/future) #2016, [historically](/topic/historically) #51, [swan](/topic/swan) #392, [frame](/topic/frame) #539, [binance](/topic/binance) #1601, [trap](/topic/trap) 1.64%, [the only](/topic/the-only) #1406

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@jesseolson](/creator/undefined) [@remindme_ofthis](/creator/undefined) [@thebtctherapist](/creator/undefined) [@jameswynnreal](/creator/undefined) [@onlykaspafans](/creator/undefined) [@giovann35084111](/creator/undefined) [@jonnieking](/creator/undefined) [@realgaspargomez](/creator/undefined) [@stockstormx](/creator/undefined) [@makeitcount4us](/creator/undefined) [@itstoghrul](/creator/undefined) [@n3xtlevl](/creator/undefined) [@sachinsuri81](/creator/undefined) [@lukemikic21](/creator/undefined) [@sminstonwith](/creator/undefined) [@cryptodona7](/creator/undefined) [@hillerydan](/creator/undefined) [@coinpulse360](/creator/undefined) [@pikachu21m](/creator/undefined) [@bigbag1987](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [BlackRock Inc (BLK)](/topic/blackrock)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours

"I tried my best to warn the bears that this 2-month move down was a massive bear trap for the 4-year cycle trading bros"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998441006379741283)  2025-12-09T17:13Z 210.6K followers, 14.2K engagements


"If you are a true long-term Bitcoin investor this is the only model you need. It's a conviction model that is cycle-length agnostic and probabilisticproviding a range of possible outcomes rather than a single prediction at a specific time. **Not Financial Advice** **I Do Not Promote Trading Bitcoin** The lower half of the model (0-50 Quantile) has an R of 99.72%absurdly accurate. Where Bitcoin falls within this range depends on a multitude of external market factors human psychology etc. The wide range is a statistical reflection of Bitcoin's historical volatility across its full dataset."  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1991702974272311652)  2025-11-21T02:59Z 210.6K followers, 293.2K engagements


"Bitcoin: Its becoming painfully obviousthis mid-cycle correction was a massive bear trap for the 4-year cycle disciples"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995930459663171972)  2025-12-02T18:57Z 210.6K followers, 114.2K engagements


"Bitcoin: I nominate Q1 2026 to be officially called. the "Oh F*ck FOMO Quarter""  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998446468575658275)  2025-12-09T17:35Z 210.6K followers, 18.6K engagements


"@itsToghrul I will be more confident once we break and hold above $97000"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998448444198011318)  2025-12-09T17:43Z 210.6K followers, XXX engagements


"I really need customer support from Bank to the Future but I can't get any responses via email. What do you recommend I do @BankToTheFuture @SimonDixonTwitt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1977813129712243140)  2025-10-13T19:06Z 210.6K followers, 18.2K engagements


"In my honest opinion. this is a continuation pattern of a massive Bitcoin bull trap that started at $XXXX and will end when Bitcoin becoming the global decentralized unit of account and store of value. Act accordingly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998463567884882396)  2025-12-09T18:43Z 210.5K followers, XXX engagements


"My comment got more likes than his entire poston a fraction of the views. Ratio Wynn ✔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1994466973606891989)  2025-11-28T18:02Z 210.6K followers, 45.8K engagements


"Bitcoin Quantile Model Price: $90923 Quantile: XXXX / XXX In relative statistical terms Bitcoin has been higher XXXX% of the time historically and lower 34.2%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995136880405532678)  2025-11-30T14:24Z 210.6K followers, 102.6K engagements


"Total Engagements on my posts over the last X months"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995144896341275115)  2025-11-30T14:56Z 210.6K followers, 19.9K engagements


"Bitcoin Quantile Model Price: $87061 Quantile: XXXX / XXX In relative statistical terms Bitcoin has been higher XXXX% of the time historically and lower 31.1%. Key Point: Remember the model is cycle-length agnostic and probabilisticproviding a range of possible outcomes rather than a single prediction at a specific time. The lower half of the model (0-50 Quantile) has an R of 99.72%absurdly accurate. Where Bitcoin falls within this range depends on multiple factors: market conditions the macro landscape human psychology etc. The wide range is a statistical reflection of Bitcoin's historical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995495674310184993)  2025-12-01T14:10Z 210.6K followers, 47.6K engagements


"The model says the average daily price over the 4-year period from the last halving to the next halving should be $500000. Should Plan B stop updating S2F and admit that stock-to-flow is a flawed way to model Bitcoin Clear the thesis and model is flawed and invalid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995676039008453004)  2025-12-02T02:07Z 210.6K followers, 100.3K engagements


"Clearly the thesis and model are flawed and invalid.**"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995680021307138183)  2025-12-02T02:22Z 210.6K followers, 6120 engagements


"If anyone is looking for a better Bitcoin model to replace S2F"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995683206285476184)  2025-12-02T02:35Z 210.6K followers, 12.9K engagements


"Just so everyone is on the same page: Stock-to-Flow has completely failed as a model and really should not even be discussed moving forward in any serious manner. For reference the Stock-to-Flow model predicts an average Bitcoin price of $500000 for the roughly 4-year period from April 2024 to March/April 2028"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995886425103847509)  2025-12-02T16:03Z 210.6K followers, 9359 engagements


"Keeping things extremely simple. For the last year Bitcoin: Range: roughly $75k $125k Midpoint & psychological level: $100k Most volume traded above $100k. Year-end close above $100k = huge victory for bulls. Simple as that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1996010184397783423)  2025-12-03T00:14Z 210.6K followers, 19.1K engagements


"Simply a 13-month trading range with distribution at highs and accumulation at lowsestablishing support for the next major leg up of the bull market in 2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1996012818882011151)  2025-12-03T00:25Z 210.6K followers, 7939 engagements


"@sri_phoenix No been posting about it for over a year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1996071964214268225)  2025-12-03T04:20Z 210.6K followers, 4171 engagements


"This Bitcoin cycle is NOT like past cycles. I have been warning you all and explaining this for well over a year now. Hopefully you were paying attention"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1996404351150211281)  2025-12-04T02:21Z 210.6K followers, 43.7K engagements


"Short-term predictions are educated guesses for everyone and everyone gets humbled eventually including myself. Mid- and long-term predictions are what I specialize in and what the Quantile Model is for. I still stand behind what I said in the second part of that post. We are in the healthiest bull market to date. My main thesis is that the bull market extends into 2026. TBD - we will see"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1997141866811134317)  2025-12-06T03:11Z 210.6K followers, 10.3K engagements


"@Vivek4real_ Wake myself up because I must be in some kind of weird dream"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1997540725182103586)  2025-12-07T05:36Z 210.6K followers, 10.2K engagements


"I tend to agree with Dan here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998065666897932309)  2025-12-08T16:22Z 210.6K followers, 65K engagements


"Bitcoin: Possible Early Rising Channel Formation. Healthy structured recovery since the $80600 low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998159347793424613)  2025-12-08T22:34Z 210.6K followers, 25.6K engagements


"Of course it could definitely be a bear flag but the longer we stay in the rising channel the less likely it is to be a bear flag. The rule of thumb: Bear flags that don't resolve to the downside within 3-4 weeks often fail as bear flags and instead become accumulation zones or reversal patterns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998164764657062056)  2025-12-08T22:56Z 210.6K followers, 10.2K engagements


"The Bitcoin bears. are in trouble and they don't even know it yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998439611845038486)  2025-12-09T17:08Z 210.6K followers, 27.3K engagements


"Bitcoin: Important Point So far Bitcoin has bounced at key levels exactly the way I wanted to see. Nothing is structurally broken and my base case and thesis remain the same. In my view we are still in a bull market and I believe the probability has never been higher that it extends into 2026. Sorry bears: in my opinion Bitcoin is not going below $70000 without a significant black swan event. Bitcoin is NOT the same asset it was in previous retail-driven market cycles. If you dont adapt youll be sidelined waiting for a deep drawdown thinking nothing has changed. You have been warned. I expect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1986095618003992638)  2025-11-05T15:37Z 210.6K followers, 47.6K engagements


"My Bitcoin & Crypto Market Synopsis: You're going to want to bookmark this. **Not Investment Advice** **I do NOT Promote Trading Bitcoin** Bitcoin will bounce backit's only a matter of when. The vast majority95%+ of the altcoin spacewill NEVER recover and most likely will NEVER enter a bull market again. There simply are too many coins with ever-increasing supply and retail investors who are the only ones that buy these mid-to-lower quality altcoins got burned very badly last cycle (Think FTX Luna etc) and again during the recent massive altcoin liquidation event. Bitcoin: Nothing has changed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1990512294921371758)  2025-11-17T20:08Z 210.6K followers, 167.5K engagements


"Was $80600 the bottom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1993753743192629393)  2025-11-26T18:48Z 210.6K followers, 26.6K engagements


"The dead cat bounce to $1000000 continues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1993758481896071427)  2025-11-26T19:07Z 210.6K followers, 66.3K engagements


"First FOMO target crossed ($90000). Second major FOMO target incoming ($100000)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1993955120057626957)  2025-11-27T08:08Z 210.6K followers, 57.6K engagements


"Reclaiming $90000 was an important first step. But $100000 is the true key bull/bear psychological pivot point. It sounds simple and it is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1993957536018706870)  2025-11-27T08:18Z 210.6K followers, 11.9K engagements


"This cycles curveball"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1994054119120605250)  2025-11-27T14:42Z 210.6K followers, 49.8K engagements


"@JamesWynnReal If Bitcoin goes to $30000 I will delete my account. If Bitcoin doesn't go to $30000 will you delete your account Deal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1994417561509978453)  2025-11-28T14:46Z 210.6K followers, 108.7K engagements


"@JamesWynnReal Why does the chart show down XX% ($44k) but the box goes to $25k to $30k. Even this chart is wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1994418652209107056)  2025-11-28T14:50Z 210.6K followers, 3097 engagements


"@ScottMeeuwsen $25k. 🤣🤣🤣"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1994457811632169314)  2025-11-28T17:26Z 210.6K followers, XXX engagements


"@Peak_Ascent @JamesWynnReal Me Why"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1994467480270491683)  2025-11-28T18:04Z 210.6K followers, 3750 engagements


"Biggest clear trend shift since Nov 11th when Bitcoin broke below $104000 and dropped below the 20-SMA on the 4-hour time frame. Of course still tons of work to do on higher time frames. But Bitcoin is up $11000 off the low. It's looking more and more like the mid-cycle bull market correction higher low is in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995131565131653571)  2025-11-30T14:03Z 210.6K followers, 57.5K engagements


"@SpitfireTraders I have no idea what you are talking about but you seem very confused. I think you have me confused with someone else. This model was not even created in 2021/2022"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995139837780017252)  2025-11-30T14:36Z 210.6K followers, 1288 engagements


"Notice how the XXXX Quantile today is basically the X Quantile in X years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995276880413593652)  2025-11-30T23:40Z 210.6K followers, 46.1K engagements


"@TheBTCTherapist Flawed model"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995673304066392084)  2025-12-02T01:56Z 210.6K followers, 3270 engagements


"@hodltroy Agree Troy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995678820805083176)  2025-12-02T02:18Z 210.6K followers, 2052 engagements


"The first important level for Bitcoin to reclaim and find support above is the 21-day EMA which is currently at $92173. We keep getting rejected at this moving average and have been unable to get above it and find support since the major flash crash on Oct XX. There are a lot of other important levels to reclaim but this is the first important one I'm watching for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995872231516155922)  2025-12-02T15:06Z 210.6K followers, 23.2K engagements


"Fast move today. Someone loves sub $90000 Bitcoin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995876536017461505)  2025-12-02T15:23Z 210.6K followers, 8033 engagements


"Bitcoin: Still just a normal healthy correction during a bull market. Of course the Binance glitch/fumble that led to the Oct 10th flash crash didn't help however the healthy cool-off is how extended bull markets are created. V-shaped recovery then 2026 bull market extension"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995885266431513048)  2025-12-02T15:58Z 210.6K followers, 79.8K engagements


"@newfinance24 Possible. But low probability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995885895707455834)  2025-12-02T16:00Z 210.6K followers, 1376 engagements


"@sminston_with 100%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995920140869755238)  2025-12-02T18:16Z 210.6K followers, 1580 engagements


"Common sense. Average price of $500000. We have spent the first almost X years trading around $100k. That means Bitcoin has to spend X years trading around $900k minimum"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995959855643861147)  2025-12-02T20:54Z 210.6K followers, 6667 engagements


"We just broke above the 21-day EMA next goal is to hold it as support"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1996069286016885141)  2025-12-03T04:09Z 210.6K followers, 8066 engagements


"Important Bitcoin Post: The mid-cycle shakeout is almost complete. Many are convinced the bull run is over and a deep long bear market is coming next. Mr. Market has done a fantastic job to trick the herd. When we pump soon many stubborn people will be left on the sidelines if they do not humble themselves and buy back in. I am expecting a fast move and recovery as there are a ton of people that sold and want to have long-term positions in Bitcoin right now that think the bull run is over. They will scramble to get back in once it is abundantly clear that 2026 will be an extension of the bull"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995860463175803282)  2025-12-02T14:19Z 210.6K followers, 75.9K engagements


"Bitcoin: $7000 upside swing in under XX hours massive dry powder still on the sidelines because of the 4-year cycle gospel fresh new large capital flooding in and people seriously think a bear market is coming 🤣"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1996074700460507195)  2025-12-03T04:31Z 210.6K followers, 43.1K engagements


"The days of X digit Bitcoin are numbered"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1996308888048501136)  2025-12-03T20:01Z 210.6K followers, 44.7K engagements


"It definitely isn't useless for long-term investors especially when you look out X years in advance. The large range is a result of Bitcoin's historic volatility that is just mathematically the honest way to give the range. Also the range is much less than other Bitcoin models like Stock-to-Flow which give a 750k range (250k to 1M)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998162131926323329)  2025-12-08T22:45Z 210.6K followers, XX engagements


"Friendly reminder: most of the time Bitcoin does nothing and then when you least expect it it does everything in a short time. Unless you are a full-time experienced professional trader with a proven track record of success (almost no traders make money over the long term) then you don't want to be sidelined during a bull market especially given how fast Bitcoin can move"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998428222443131355)  2025-12-09T16:23Z 210.6K followers, 20.1K engagements


"FOMC Summary As expected the FOMC delivered a XXXX% rate cut. Key justification: Sticky inflation combined with tariff-related uncertainty and its potential impact on future inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998842154765152346)  2025-12-10T19:48Z 210.6K followers, 9772 engagements


"The wait is over Introducing. 🥁 Bitcoin Quantile Model v2. Youre going to want to bookmark this postand follow for regular model updates. After months of research and development Im very proud of this modelmy flagship quantile framework. Im confident its one of the bestif not the bestlong-term Bitcoin investment frameworks available. As a full-time unpaid Bitcoin researcher Im often asked how people can best support my free content. Simply bookmark repost and comment on my posts :) Thanks for all your continued support PlanC Key Features & Improvements: X. Quantile lines never"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1978449114179236198)  2025-10-15T13:13Z 210.6K followers, 1M engagements


"That was a fun short-term prediction that I clearly got wrong. I underestimated how many people still believe in the magical 4-year cycle. My core thesis is that we are going to have an extended bull-run / cycle and I have been saying that for years. Short-term predictions are educated guesses for everyone. You get some right and you get some wrong. I have gotten many right and some wrong. My focus is on mid and long term patterns and predictions. I am not a trader and never have claimed to be. What matters is that the long-term mathematical patterns hold and that is my focus and we are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995864842058527089)  2025-12-02T14:37Z 210.6K followers, 1406 engagements


"The Binance glitch was a borderline black swan eventan unpredictable high-impact occurrence (per Nassim Taleb's theory.) Without it Bitcoin might not have broken below $100000 and almost certainly would not have broken below $90000"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1997299684818534856)  2025-12-06T13:38Z 210.6K followers, 13.3K engagements


"@JesseOlson You got ratioed sir"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1997362414774358417)  2025-12-06T17:48Z 210.6K followers, 1082 engagements


"Was $80600 the bottom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1997762176615096501)  2025-12-07T20:16Z 210.6K followers, 28.6K engagements


"I ran the exact same poll on Nov. XX. Results Yes - XXXX% No - XXXX% 5047 votes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1997786654799790523)  2025-12-07T21:53Z 210.6K followers, 11.2K engagements


"@hillery_dan I appreciate the shout-out 🤝"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1997885696434905507)  2025-12-08T04:27Z 210.6K followers, 4396 engagements


"I will have to retire the Plan B model for him as he clearly seems too stubborn to do it himself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1995883499862237554)  2025-12-02T15:51Z 210.6K followers, 57.7K engagements


"Bitcoin Quantile Model Price: $89502 Quantile: XXXX / XXX In relative statistical terms Bitcoin has been higher XXXX% of the time historically and lower 32.5%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1997496070834991543)  2025-12-07T02:39Z 210.6K followers, 96.7K engagements


"@QuintenFrancois XXX% 🎯"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998419842232414570)  2025-12-09T15:49Z 210.6K followers, 3359 engagements


"This move is much more significant than most people are realizing right now. If we don't get rejected here and can get a daily close above the downtrend line and find support above it we would confirm a clear trend shift on the daily time frame and a break of the over 2-month downtrend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998433276558549185)  2025-12-09T16:43Z 210.6K followers, 36.3K engagements


"At $90000 Bitcoin is only XX% down from its all-time high. Even with the wild Binance black swan glitchthe technical meltdown that triggered massive liquidationsthe full pullback was only XX% (down to around $80600). That's a completely standard bull-market correction. We've seen 3040% drawdowns multiple times in every major cycle without derailing the broader uptrend. Yet sentiment on X is apocalypticyou'd think Bitcoin was down XX% or more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1997295630197158050)  2025-12-06T13:22Z 210.6K followers, 50.9K engagements


"Bitcoin has now entered a key resistance zone from $93000 to $97000. There is not a lot of resistance after that until $106000. A break above $97000 would be highly significant and would confirm a clear upward trend shift and increase the odds that the major bottom for this mid-bull-cycle bear dip is in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998425671496823015)  2025-12-09T16:13Z 210.6K followers, 34.5K engagements


"Bitcoin Update: The daily close was not above the downtrend line. The downtrend breakout attempt is still in progress. Simply maintaining the current price around $92000 to $93000 would break the downtrend line within a few days but ideally we get a big move over the next day or two and blow through the line leaving no question that the two-month downtrend on the daily time frame has shifted. Of course a strong rejection at this line again would not be great and would most likely signal the continuation of the two-month downtrend and lower lows to come"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998574368985620686)  2025-12-10T02:03Z 210.6K followers, 25.5K engagements


"Bitcoin Quantile Model My base case is that we have a decent probability of reaching rare air (top gray band) at some point over the next 1-2 years or at the very least reaching elevated (red band). Price: $92156 Quantile: XXXX / XXX In relative statistical terms Bitcoin has been higher XXXX% of the time historically and lower 34.5%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998790869529280712)  2025-12-10T16:24Z 210.6K followers, 77.6K engagements


"No it wouldn't. The model is cycle length agnostic and is a probability distribution. Lots of people think it means that some level "has to be hit"not true. Having said that if we don't reach the top two bands this cycle I would be surprised but I won't necessarily change the model because it could still be the best option and we could reach the top two bands next cycle. We also got pretty close to the second-to-top band and we did reach over the 80th Quantile. Your specific question requires a very nuanced answer and I am only scratching the surface on my answer here but hopefully this makes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1998982307084992577)  2025-12-11T05:04Z 210.6K followers, 3457 engagements