#  @TMTLongShort Just Another Pod Guy
Just Another Pod Guy posts on X about ai, china, we are, in the the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1227646314554548224/interactions)
- [--] Week [---------] +134%
- [--] Month [---------] +65%
- [--] Months [----------] +179%
- [--] Year [----------] +13,008%
### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1227646314554548224/posts_active)
- [--] Week [---] +59%
- [--] Month [---] +130%
- [--] Months [-----] +136%
- [--] Year [-----] +1,357%
### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1227646314554548224/followers)
- [--] Week [------] +5.40%
- [--] Month [------] +34%
- [--] Months [------] +114%
- [--] Year [------] +1,113%
### CreatorRank: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1227646314554548224/influencer_rank)
### Social Influence
**Social category influence**
[countries](/list/countries) #6729 [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 15.84% [finance](/list/finance) 14.36% [stocks](/list/stocks) 3.47% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 3.47% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 1.98% [vc firms](/list/vc-firms) 1.98% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 1.49% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 1.49% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) 1.49%
**Social topic influence**
[ai](/topic/ai) #2138, [china](/topic/china) #1405, [we are](/topic/we-are) #1561, [in the](/topic/in-the) 4.95%, [anthropic](/topic/anthropic) #1415, [if you](/topic/if-you) #1426, [the most](/topic/the-most) #1048, [the first](/topic/the-first) 2.97%, [open ai](/topic/open-ai) #2602, [at least](/topic/at-least) #120
**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@scorpiotiger77](/creator/undefined) [@ewinsberg](/creator/undefined) [@tquestmind](/creator/undefined) [@maulikatanu](/creator/undefined) [@artkeller](/creator/undefined) [@drgingerballs](/creator/undefined) [@frankdegods](/creator/undefined) [@sprk_77](/creator/undefined) [@volgreatduke](/creator/undefined) [@richard15322800](/creator/undefined) [@jtdaly](/creator/undefined) [@quantlr](/creator/undefined) [@benitoz](/creator/undefined) [@traderhc](/creator/undefined) [@dr_gingerballs](/creator/undefined) [@michaeltastad](/creator/undefined) [@matrixtraderd](/creator/undefined) [@edwinvanderberg](/creator/undefined) [@sbo8085](/creator/undefined) [@gloeschi](/creator/undefined)
**Top assets mentioned**
[Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) [Now Coin (NOW)](/topic/$now) [Atlassian Corporation PLC (TEAM)](/topic/$team)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Think about this the next time you think Washington is cool with NVDA selling chips to China. or when Europe trades with China which in-turn funds Beijings investments in militarizing their manufacturing capacity. Watch this video. Now imagine this swarm controlled by AI agents with an explosive on each drone. It's Biblical. https://t.co/PF5ToZskGw Watch this video. Now imagine this swarm controlled by AI agents with an explosive on each drone. It's Biblical. https://t.co/PF5ToZskGw"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020125144878883265) 2026-02-07T13:19Z 41.7K followers, 14.3K engagements
"You should be reading a lot more sci-fi & fantasy. Between now and true ASI the most valuable skill will be imagination and the ability to mentally simulate abstract future potential states quickly. The AI will provide the execution. The middle to middle as @balajis calls it will be commoditized. Ideas are the gaiting factor for progress and the last thing to disappear. Start building that muscle now"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/1971593817296928996) 2025-09-26T15:12Z 41.5K followers, 15.6K engagements
"Too many people focus on the risk of China gutting AI profits via DeepSeek you should be a lot more worried about what happens to global pharma profits when China is allowing AI-enabled challenger trials and the FDA continues throttling acceleration in the U.S. The reason decoupling cant be a U.S. only thing is China will soon realize offering superior drugs is a lot friendlier of an export vs BYDs to most of the developed world You need to shut them out and then let Western firms monetize Chinese IP otherwise the whole system implodes as return on Western R&D nukes to zero like it has in"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2007221980768989641) 2026-01-02T22:46Z 41.3K followers, 70.4K engagements
"Let me explain why this was all very predictable. You see Trump benefits from Carneys intransigence. The more publicly he spits in the eye of the hegemon that keeps him safe and accounts for 20% of his GDP the more attention he gets. And so when Trump destroys the Canadian economy come July every European and Asian trade partner will be watching. Trump gets to send a message in a very low risk manner. Because unlike Europe Canada has zero cards. Not a single one. Nada. For context during the GFC the U.S. economy dropped by -4% Canadas GDP will likely get hit quite a bit harder. And thats"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2012229355045322859) 2026-01-16T18:23Z 41.2K followers, 114.3K engagements
"I think he is a patriot who understands if there is a way to salvage the existing system while restructuring it to benefit Americans then that is the optimal thing to do for Americans. I think the Vance faction believes the world is too far gone. Because of this split Bessent has a lot more cards than he otherwise would have because it means he is the good cop. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014446861159927951 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014446861159927951"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2014446861159927951) 2026-01-22T21:15Z 39.5K followers, 438.3K engagements
"Its right there on the first page 🤦♂ Beware the loud proud and very wrong. The US Dollar lost over 10% of its value under Scott Bessent. Yet this clown claims to be America first. https://t.co/xF5vFnUGAQ The US Dollar lost over 10% of its value under Scott Bessent. Yet this clown claims to be America first. https://t.co/xF5vFnUGAQ"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2016352755057651867) 2026-01-28T03:28Z 40.9K followers, 132.9K engagements
"This is what the bear case for software looks like. Seems unintuitive. Im using robinhood as an example because it is specifically not a traditional software name and seen as a clownshow. Just wait until Microsoft and Amazon start doing the equivalent. You need a throat to choke. Yeah and when large scaled players have thousands of engineers utilizing millions of Claude bots what do you think theyll be busy doing all day Moving horizontally for a fraction of the economic rent the incumbents charge. And this is an analogy nothing more. Before all the retards start coming at me with the"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2016611758996082758) 2026-01-28T20:38Z 41.2K followers, 133.2K engagements
"World models are the obvious killer app for VR. Zuck should triple down on Reality Labs. Id expect Genie [--] or [--] will be able to one-shot full games. A creator will describe the story world characters main quests core gameplay mechanics and AI will one-shot you a full game. Extreme productivity boost. [--] person instead of [----]. One day instead of five years. Id expect Genie [--] or [--] will be able to one-shot full games. A creator will describe the story world characters main quests core gameplay mechanics and AI will one-shot you a full game. Extreme productivity boost. [--] person instead of 1000."
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2017647959345713176) 2026-01-31T17:15Z 39.4K followers, 15.4K engagements
"Chinese politics is a black box and so Ive avoided opining on the recent military drama But Im seeing a number of attempts to spin this as a clear indication that China isnt ready to attempt a move on Taiwan That seems wrong to me. You can just as easily say this is Xi loading the gun and putting it on the table. The primary impediments to attempting a move on TW were: 1) repercussions to Chinas trade status with the West 2) risk that the U.S. defends the island and hundreds of thousands of Chinese perish in the attempt Zhang Youxia and co were the rare officers who had actual prior combat"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2017787332959592633) 2026-02-01T02:29Z 40.6K followers, 29.5K engagements
"Long-shot lotto parlay bet for 2026: Musk merges SpaceX into TSLA and then does a $100b equity offering which he uses to fund a US chip fab via a JV structure that gives the U.S. govt a stake with participation by SoftBank NVDA and OpenAI. Structures an IP licensing deal with INTC to jumpstart technical knowledge. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017794938017132980 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017794938017132980"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2017794938017132980) 2026-02-01T02:59Z 41.4K followers, 32.8K engagements
"Warsh this Warsh that we are going to run it fucking hot. Dont get it twisted"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2017996331445301691) 2026-02-01T16:19Z 41.5K followers, 68.6K engagements
"This whole debate feels like when that marlene account on crypto twitter was debating if mercury in retrograde meant bullish for altcoin prices. Guys end of the day Bessent locked candidates in a room and made them swear to do what he tells them. His background/resume is just misdirection"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2017999421644898412) 2026-02-01T16:32Z 41.5K followers, 10.4K engagements
"I dont think people appreciate how close we are to Hunger Games: AI Labs Edition for everything compute related. Marginal ROI on compute is increasing not decreasing. If one or two incremental use-cases take off the way Claude Code/Clawdbot did the near-to-medium term shortages in everything are going to get extreme. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018252777483301056 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018252777483301056"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2018252777483301056) 2026-02-02T09:18Z 41.5K followers, 25.6K engagements
"This goes without saying but if the SpaceX bull case is reliant on ramping compute in space as aggressively as possible the telcos broadly are going to have a very bad time over the next decade. Yes I am aware of the difficulties of serving high density urban areas. Dont come at me with physics lessons. Im not retarded. If musk is scaling even a fraction of the 100GW/year hes talking about the deflationary impact to serving consumers at the margin will be seismic. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018478937802690762 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018478937802690762"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2018478937802690762) 2026-02-03T00:17Z 41.3K followers, 28.6K engagements
"Immediate priority*"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2018480639176265733) 2026-02-03T00:24Z 39.4K followers, [----] engagements
"If you are confused as to why software puked today and are clinging to the notion that this is just the baby thrown out with the bath water you owe it to your grandchildren to go watch at least ten episodes of the Moonshots podcast tonight to understand how far we are from the median boomer PM actually sounding liking a maxi. Do it for your grandchildren so they dont have to grow up scrounging in the dumpyards for recycled RAM sticks 😉"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2018755338149695944) 2026-02-03T18:35Z 41.4K followers, 51.9K engagements
"The beatings will continue until Tepper gets on CNBC and ritualistically executes a Clawdbot and eats it"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2018777619542446517) 2026-02-03T20:04Z 41.5K followers, 15K engagements
"Yes This might as well be my position piece on the current administration. Spot on with how I see it https://t.co/dVsVLHIYl8 H/t @AllsupChris This might as well be my position piece on the current administration. Spot on with how I see it https://t.co/dVsVLHIYl8 H/t @AllsupChris"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019053171067298094) 2026-02-04T14:19Z 41.4K followers, 150.1K engagements
"Reflexivity is a beautiful thing. SaaS CFOs realize investors now care about FCF less SBC as a metric and start pulling back on stock comp. RSUs are underwater. AI-first startups are hiring talented engineers and still accruing VC dollars. Talented engineers at SaaS cos feel underpaid and are more likely to be maxi-pilled given proximity to Claude and so quickly jump ship. Shitty employees feel underpaid but desperately cling to existing employer because they realize nobody values their (lack of) skills. Incumbent SaaS cos become shells of their former self. Narrative that SaaS is dying"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019077854080680397) 2026-02-04T15:57Z 41.4K followers, 27.1K engagements
"👑👑👑 🚨 LMAO Scott Bessent just SET OFF a Democrat Congressman who was screaming at him incoherently BESSENT: Could you speak a little louder please I cant hear you 🤣🔥 REP. LYNCH: YEAH OK Democrats deserve to be treated like children https://t.co/65frBdgaqM 🚨 LMAO Scott Bessent just SET OFF a Democrat Congressman who was screaming at him incoherently BESSENT: Could you speak a little louder please I cant hear you 🤣🔥 REP. LYNCH: YEAH OK Democrats deserve to be treated like children https://t.co/65frBdgaqM"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019114075439947793) 2026-02-04T18:21Z 39.4K followers, 14.3K engagements
"Chills 🔥 RIP Hollywood. AI is now 100% photorealistic with the launch of Kling [---] In just two days I created the opening sequence from The Way of Kings by Brandon Sanderson You have to try this new Multi-Shot technique that makes making films much faster and cheaper 🧵👇 https://t.co/tqZCnsP96J RIP Hollywood. AI is now 100% photorealistic with the launch of Kling [---] In just two days I created the opening sequence from The Way of Kings by Brandon Sanderson You have to try this new Multi-Shot technique that makes making films much faster and cheaper 🧵👇 https://t.co/tqZCnsP96J"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019134383396094453) 2026-02-04T19:42Z 39.4K followers, 18.4K engagements
"People at Anthropic understand this viscerally. People in academia and finance throwing stones do not"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019187077229998405) 2026-02-04T23:11Z 41.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@michaeltastad Just wait till you hear about Docusign 😉"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019188046453760454) 2026-02-04T23:15Z 41.3K followers, [---] engagements
"(Source: A16Z)"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019204518676717974) 2026-02-05T00:20Z 39.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Mfw why didnt you just quote tweet the Anthropic ads with this shit instead of a three page essay Codex is now over [--] million active users Codex is now over [--] million active users"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019225622443426110) 2026-02-05T01:44Z 41.3K followers, 10.3K engagements
"Counter-intuitive point: the more aggressively the hyperscalers push their current AI capex the faster the need to defend Taiwan erodes in [----]. Think of it as pulling forward latent capacity. Ofc if we bomb the fabs in [----] and hand it off to China there will be pain. But in that world what we have is a much faster TSMC ramp in AZ due to the increased demand in [----] and the ability for the U.S. to repurpose all those GWs that were meant to serve the rest of the world at scale for only American customers. You basically make defending Taiwan a problem for everyone but Americans and Chinese."
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019352506417971700) 2026-02-05T10:08Z 41.3K followers, 13.5K engagements
"@atelicinvest Just wait until the European boomer PMs get to use ChatGPT for the first time in 2027"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019371541713072553) 2026-02-05T11:24Z 39.4K followers, [----] engagements
"I have explained why I disagree with Balaji re the collapse of the rules-based order due to reflexivity and the transition from republic to empire. But on crypto in particular its worth considering near-term a lot of tech employees are about to either get laid off or feel very insecure about their future employment prospects. The top 5% of tech will be thriving and ebullient. They work at the labs. Its the other 95% who are now recalibrating their risk tolerance that I worry about. Does the middle-manager at ADBE dump his BTC to make sure he can cover his mortgage if he gets laid off due to"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019375935162622382) 2026-02-05T11:41Z 41.2K followers, 30.8K engagements
"@matrix_trader_d Would you prefer we lie and say we care about you Would a taiwanese volunteer to defend america if we were invaded by canada 😉"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019376538425389358) 2026-02-05T11:44Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@kellangrenier Yeah saw and same"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019379867217789199) 2026-02-05T11:57Z 39.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@VolGreatDuke The other 2/3rds is gold 😉"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019393684148756966) 2026-02-05T12:52Z 40.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@VolGreatDuke Not sure - even tho geopol risk is underpriced Im not sure that matters if govt is backstopping hyperscalers and running economy hot. Its in my too hard bucket"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019399430806368454) 2026-02-05T13:15Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements
"No body likes to believe they are dumb so they need to be slapped in the face by reality (Claude etc) instead of preemptively pricing in the possibility that the highest concentration of IQ in human history at the labs might have a plan to overcome the very obvious obstacles THAT'S WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING PEOPLE CAN ONLY CONCEIVE OF DOING THINGS WITH AI TOOLS THAT THEY CAN CONCEIVE OF DOING WITH AI TOOLS SO BEING INTELLIGENT IS ACTUALLY A BIGGER ADVANTAGE THAN EVER BECAUSE YOU HAVE A BETTER SENSE OF WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN WITH AI THAT'S WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING PEOPLE CAN ONLY CONCEIVE OF DOING"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019412291368939524) 2026-02-05T14:06Z 41.2K followers, 34K engagements
"Lets fucking go 🚀"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019456935838273570) 2026-02-05T17:03Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"The people building the models actually have a better grasp of forward demand than the pundits for me the odds that AI is a bubble declined significantly in the last [--] weeks and the odds that were actually quite under-built for the necessary levels of inference/usage went significantly up in that period basically I think AI is going to become the home screen of a for me the odds that AI is a bubble declined significantly in the last [--] weeks and the odds that were actually quite under-built for the necessary levels of inference/usage went significantly up in that period basically I think AI is"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019514971143696606) 2026-02-05T20:54Z 41.3K followers, 20.1K engagements
"Yall arent ready for what comes next. We worked with @Ginkgo to connect GPT-5 to an autonomous lab so it could propose experiments run them at scale learn from the results and decide what to try next. That closed loop brought protein production cost down by 40%. https://t.co/udKBKxnKlW We worked with @Ginkgo to connect GPT-5 to an autonomous lab so it could propose experiments run them at scale learn from the results and decide what to try next. That closed loop brought protein production cost down by 40%. https://t.co/udKBKxnKlW"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019542780696227893) 2026-02-05T22:44Z 41.3K followers, 49K engagements
"@davidecapital Im requesting we at least have one year of Sexbots before we usher in the apocalypse"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019543472538284440) 2026-02-05T22:47Z 40.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Long rambling thread (sorry). A common pushback on the AI maxi view of knowledge work disruption is that AI is rate limited by human adoption. This assumes that existing businesses will be the primary customer of AI as opposed to new AI-natives and a baby AGI is at the mercy of the incumbents for adoption. And when you bring up the notion of AI-native businesses competing with incumbents you get the pushback that these AI-natives lack the deep expertise and process knowledge accumulated by decades of employees contributing and a business operating. How I think about it: Most humans are dumb."
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019570980058800172) 2026-02-06T00:36Z 41.5K followers, 12.1K engagements
"@chesir3cat @atelicinvest @claude give this guy a swirly make no mistakes"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019586774121718024) 2026-02-06T01:39Z 40.5K followers, [---] engagements
"lol lmao - many of these mgmt teams are in for a brutal awakening when the marginal buyer suddenly cares about FCF-SBC 😉 (Not a comment specific to NOW: /TEAM I have enough sw baggies hunting me as is) Happened to have dinner tonight with a guy at $NOW whose sister works at $TEAM. He said they are pretty excited about the stock declines. View internally is that business is strong and theyre happy that RSUs/options are getting struck down here. Take it FWIW Happened to have dinner tonight with a guy at $NOW whose sister works at $TEAM. He said they are pretty excited about the stock declines."
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019643107151868285) 2026-02-06T05:23Z 41.2K followers, 17.4K engagements
"@T49tank Sun Eater Red Rising Licanius Will of The Many Stormlight"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019832776175018128) 2026-02-06T17:57Z 41.3K followers, [----] engagements
"@VizierPrime Thats why you need to partner and verticalize instead of rely on adoption"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020077573489701207) 2026-02-07T10:09Z 41.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Normal brained: Warsh is a hawk bad for risk assets. Sell software and crypto. Big brained: reduced liquidity forced rotation out of tech which was exacerbated by sector-specific datapoints that resulted in software imploding and those same liquidity dynamics have been pressuring BTC Mega brained: rapid AI progress seems more likely than before which is inherently negative for software terminal-value and also implies higher worker productivity and a deflationary impulse which means the fiscal debt situation is more manageable so sell debasement hedges Giga brained: the path to AGI is going to"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020084925576224792) 2026-02-07T10:39Z 41.5K followers, 40.2K engagements
"I always thought I understood why Elon believed in simulation-theory he lived a uniquely charmed life that took him through one of the most interesting trajectories a human could possibly go through. But for most people it made no sense to consider. Our lives were fairly mundane. For the first time in my life Im looking at what the next few years might look like and I think holy shit maybe"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020089304819671179) 2026-02-07T10:56Z 41.3K followers, 17.4K engagements
"@EdwinVANDERBERG 😉"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020090129227083902) 2026-02-07T10:59Z 41.3K followers, [---] engagements
"@matrix_trader_d Will be rocky but its a Q of value capture and re distro"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020092137866727523) 2026-02-07T11:07Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Agree with this. But you have to go even further on the abstraction curve. What is the marginal utility of historical data when you have a baby AGI running correlations between every datapoint available across humanities knowledge base. What can be replicated what has signal and what only had value because other people traded based on it and therefore was predictive only due to reflexivity How quickly will it take for us to have real-time monitoring of every inch of earth via LEO with the AI spitting out in real time the kind of analysis P72 used to have to collate on weekends watching"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020096036300013719) 2026-02-07T11:23Z 41.5K followers, 15.7K engagements
"@SBO8085 Its all fun and games until you realize humanoids will replicate Palm Islands in Dubai 100x and Rainmakers weather mod tech is going to scale across the planet. But path function matters 😉"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020099607003308190) 2026-02-07T11:37Z 41.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@vlslvv Agreed but thats prob five years out and in between there is inertia and confusion"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020099913703416204) 2026-02-07T11:38Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"The dems are going to run on an anti-AI platform in [----] because if they dont millions of govt employees are out of a job within five years We are about to solve bureaucracy the great scourge of modern life and I'm stoked to live in a world without it. I know it comes at a terrible cost and there will be a lot of grief. I also believe we'll find new ways to create value that aren't herding each other like cattle We are about to solve bureaucracy the great scourge of modern life and I'm stoked to live in a world without it. I know it comes at a terrible cost and there will be a lot of grief. I"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020107977718480969) 2026-02-07T12:10Z 41.5K followers, 28.1K engagements
"@tankishto Thats why we need to decouple 😉"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020108112292688003) 2026-02-07T12:11Z 41.4K followers, [---] engagements
"BTC was at $115k at the time 😔 My concern with BTC in contrast to gold is that the former is to a large degree correlated to liquidity. And one of the sharpest arrows in the American quiver is weaponizing dollar access in a decoupling. Look at the recent Argentinian bailout and how it was structured. My concern with BTC in contrast to gold is that the former is to a large degree correlated to liquidity. And one of the sharpest arrows in the American quiver is weaponizing dollar access in a decoupling. Look at the recent Argentinian bailout and how it was structured"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020111114814505229) 2026-02-07T12:23Z 41.3K followers, 13.3K engagements
"@artuskg Correct - which in part explains musks desire to move datacenters into space"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020118927351730217) 2026-02-07T12:54Z 41.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@Bunagayafrost Re 3) i decided the prob that I identify and assign the correct prob to the correct god + religion + repercussions in afterlife = low enough that the rational thing to do is life as if there is no god. Its a reverse Pascals wager"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020119648172175740) 2026-02-07T12:57Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Anthropic and OpenAI going public is an opportunity to explain to credit investors why Blue Owl and others funding datacenters are low risk. If they dont the widening of credit spreads and rotation out of the lenders is going to be incredibly harmful to future lending capacity and therefore capex roadmaps as hyperscaler balance sheets get tapped-out. They can only do that by also explaining to investors how they will successfully widen the scope of AI beyond software. That in and of itself is a catalyst for the market to realize what the next few years might look like separate and in parallel"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020122528803406056) 2026-02-07T13:08Z 41.5K followers, 15.8K engagements
"@puff_magicdraco OpenAI employees def do this. Anthropic employees are more maxi and likely believe value capture still accrues to the intelligence provider"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020132425955672477) 2026-02-07T13:47Z 41.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Admiral Paparo wakes up bleary-eyed and scrolls past this post. *Checks-in on progress report for fitting Starship rockets with Rapid Dragon pallets* *Smirks goes back to sleep* JUST IN: China has revealed plans for a futuristic warship named Luanniao an 800-foot vessel designed to deploy unmanned fighter jets and launch hypersonic missiles from space. https://t.co/Q50PLUXpqi JUST IN: China has revealed plans for a futuristic warship named Luanniao an 800-foot vessel designed to deploy unmanned fighter jets and launch hypersonic missiles from space. https://t.co/Q50PLUXpqi"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020152478969339974) 2026-02-07T15:07Z 41.4K followers, 14.6K engagements
"3-5 year ramp towards digital singularity swelling all knowledge work. Robotics solved in three years from now and takes five years from there to ramp. Wide range of distro around societal and geopol reactions to the ramp and that can accel or decel timeline. Energy scarcity and chip scarcity starts next year and goes through periods of stop-start. Adoption by industry will be volatile initially but smooth out as human decision makers give up trying to keep up with change and cede corp decision making to AI. Human agency initially very valuable but quickly becomes commoditized as AGIs are"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020184952143306769) 2026-02-07T17:16Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@Gloeschi It aint real till Alex holling at sandboxx reports on it 😉"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020187904195326337) 2026-02-07T17:28Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Silly rabbit you thought the labs wouldnt price discriminate Revenue-share agreements for priority access coming in [--] [--] [--] Our teams have been building with a 2.5x-faster version of Claude Opus [---]. Were now making it available as an early experiment via Claude Code and our API. Our teams have been building with a 2.5x-faster version of Claude Opus [---]. Were now making it available as an early experiment via Claude Code and our API"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020220589521224162) 2026-02-07T19:38Z 41.3K followers, 16.4K engagements
"Now SaaS is dead 2.5x-faster 😉 Our teams have been building with a 2.5x-faster version of Claude Opus [---]. Were now making it available as an early experiment via Claude Code and our API. Our teams have been building with a 2.5x-faster version of Claude Opus [---]. Were now making it available as an early experiment via Claude Code and our API"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020231390575591727) 2026-02-07T20:21Z 41.4K followers, 25K engagements
"@Roth_Overlord @SBO8085 Checkout rainmaker"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020235413357781370) 2026-02-07T20:37Z 41.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@tytyburky Scaling laws suddenly stop holding for some unforeseen reason or govt turns adversarial. Sub 20% prob in my mind"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020265594990325913) 2026-02-07T22:37Z 41.3K followers, [---] engagements
"@cuantitative Its definitely a factor and something I spend a lot of time thinking about but my base case is model providers lock down APIs this year and open source falls behind until Huawei can ramp production"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020307108789653903) 2026-02-08T01:22Z 41.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@ArtKeller @Dr_Gingerballs I actually dont think that will happen because the people at these labs arent retarded and will preemptively adjust narrative and provide proof points accordingly to de-risk"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020307616858357838) 2026-02-08T01:24Z 41.3K followers, [---] engagements
"If a nuke is heading for NYC how do you trade your portfolio As if the bomb will fail to go off. Instead youll price-in the fact that someone was crazy enough to launch the nuke (rational; fact) but assume that they fucked up the wiring (irrational; speculative) because if the nuke hits youre dead anyways. So youll probably short Chinese ADRs max long dollar-debasement and defense stocks on the assumption of a protracted non-nuclear war and then sit back and sip a scotch. AI coding is the missile heading for New York AGI is the nuke 🫡 @TMTLongShort You are right. I don't see this as"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020311293849170024) 2026-02-08T01:38Z 41.5K followers, 48K engagements
"@Dr_Gingerballs @ArtKeller So you are convinced scaling laws wont hold. Im convinced they will. Thats what makes a market"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020315458571055516) 2026-02-08T01:55Z 41.3K followers, [---] engagements
"As the conversation shifts from knowledge-work towards the rest of the economy a common mental-crutch that is going to be bandied around is the painfully slow rollout of Waymo despite the tech being readyyears earlier. This is a trap. It is correct to expect that some portion of the economy will require a very slow and painful integration phase with robotics. But you have to decompose what a robotaxi does and how analogous is that to most other areas of the real economy. Specifically: a robotaxis job is to get you from point A to B. .There is only one of you as the passenger you arent"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020335645843931378) 2026-02-08T03:15Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@HatfieldCapital We still decoupling fam 😘"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020366377316442193) 2026-02-08T05:17Z 41.3K followers, [----] engagements
"What happens when the slop stops being sloppish 🤔 they made new jackie chan movie using seedance [---] . ai has gone crazy https://t.co/yjzEqJxjFp they made new jackie chan movie using seedance [---] . ai has gone crazy https://t.co/yjzEqJxjFp"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020528615725678892) 2026-02-08T16:02Z 41.5K followers, 15.9K engagements
"Obviously 🫡 https://t.co/9PZIM3eY0x https://t.co/9PZIM3eY0x"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020537028878749928) 2026-02-08T16:35Z 41.5K followers, 46K engagements
"@JZ281C Correct. And we are going to fuck those countries long and hard"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020538892932255801) 2026-02-08T16:43Z 41.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Was gonna say Architect Capital likely making the biggest capital allocation mistake in a generation. but its like 5x FCF so I guess its fine Seedance [---] is insane https://t.co/oBqAm3zsBZ Seedance [---] is insane https://t.co/oBqAm3zsBZ"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020542495545847992) 2026-02-08T16:57Z 41.5K followers, 42.4K engagements
"The pieces are taking shape on the board. Xi has been oddly patient. An extraordinary election in Japan given that Takaichi may be on track even to secure a greater majority than the late Shinzo Abe Japan is now taking a very different direction under revitalised conservative rule shedding shibboleths of a previous generation of conservatives https://t.co/EtGg33r30l An extraordinary election in Japan given that Takaichi may be on track even to secure a greater majority than the late Shinzo Abe Japan is now taking a very different direction under revitalised conservative rule shedding"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020581858086699459) 2026-02-08T19:33Z 41.5K followers, 101.7K engagements
"@Richard15322800 @Dr_Gingerballs @ArtKeller Possible ELO not the right parallel then I mean ilya and Hinton did more for humanity than 10k people with 1SD lower IQ"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020584813632409903) 2026-02-08T19:45Z 41.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@Dr_Gingerballs @Richard15322800 @ArtKeller No days off ginger 😤"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020585832986616099) 2026-02-08T19:49Z 41.4K followers, [--] engagements
"The default mode of interaction for most consumers is going to be a video avatar with a consistent face and voice that they can text FaceTime slack call or motion at to request a task done a project built or information tutored. All the capabilities you see being developed will be abstracted away behind this personal avatar. You can have Adriana Lima explain to you physics Yoda give you life advice or Brad Pitt can teach you French. You will be able to choose between a consistent style attitude aesthetic and accent. People will have psychosis. There will be AI-addiction hotlines. People will"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020592390013169692) 2026-02-08T20:15Z 41.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Beachfronts gold guns and beans 😉 HAMPTONS HOME PRICES HIT RECORD AS SUMMER RENTALS FILL FAST Hamptons home prices hit a record in the fourth quarter driven by Wall Street bonuses and tech wealth according to Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. The median sale price jumped 34% to $2.34 million while the https://t.co/Q5uSze26GY HAMPTONS HOME PRICES HIT RECORD AS SUMMER RENTALS FILL FAST Hamptons home prices hit a record in the fourth quarter driven by Wall Street bonuses and tech wealth according to Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. The median sale price jumped 34% to $2.34 million while the"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020924856037146983) 2026-02-09T18:16Z 41.5K followers, 16.5K engagements
"@TQuestMind Dont think I agree"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021011283445940450) 2026-02-10T00:00Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@jliemandt The legend himself 🙌"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021037712954855805) 2026-02-10T01:45Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@CECL_Allowance When tarrifs on China are below 20%"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021037917117005981) 2026-02-10T01:46Z 41.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@TheAutumnalFire Latinas fix this"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021043680199778401) 2026-02-10T02:08Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Bloodbath is coming. Budgets need to to be freed up to simultaneously pay for GPUs/AI-tools while also showing investors rapid FCF-SBC expansion. The first use-case of AI is the tools that allow CFOs to map productivity and redundancy of every employee. This in-turn drives the seat-count collapse and SaaS is dead narratives forcing CFOs to be even more aggressive. Meanwhile every CEO will race to performatively lean into Claude Coding on weekends in the hopes that he convinces his board he is a war-time CEO even tho he has spent the last decade skiing in Aspen from Thursday - Sunday and hasnt"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021148656502456426) 2026-02-10T09:06Z 41.7K followers, 99.4K engagements
"Listen i jerked off to Ayn Rand as a kid. I hate the moral hazard of UBI as much as anyone. But there is zero debate it will be needed. The debate should be between if its supply side (universal basic services) or demand side (high income + compute stipend). Now what Bernie and his Luddite ilk are going to quickly find out is that unlike politicians who spend most of the time playing retarded status games the average Joe cares a lot more if their family is taken care of financially and if everything is free and he can play COD and drink a beer all day that isnt as scary as the decels make it"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021617972230365533) 2026-02-11T16:10Z 41.7K followers, 11.5K engagements
"Anthropic and OAI are coming for cloud infra and cybersecurity too. But theyll take their time. You dont go to war with companies that enable you until you are confident doing so wont hamper your near-term productivity. No one is safe. But path function matters and pays my rent"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021626131917480404) 2026-02-11T16:43Z 41.7K followers, 10.9K engagements
"@ewinsberg I am constrained by character count. Voicing every permutation is impractical"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021998770138100218) 2026-02-12T17:24Z 41.7K followers, [--] engagements
"@FilterMacro When I say Blackwell Im referring to the Gen of chips that are ramping now and includes TPU/Groq/Cerebrus/AMD etc as well. The Chinese managed to compete because they were able to access weights not because compute doesnt matter"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022297288186511672) 2026-02-13T13:10Z 41.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@aryanjn9 Yup"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022421600558305475) 2026-02-13T21:24Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@MetacriticCap Just wait till Blackwell ramps 😉"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022501093217902657) 2026-02-14T02:40Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Its been three weeks since I first published Economic Blitzkrieg so I figured its worth doing a quick overview of where we are and where I think we are headed: First to summarize: The thesis was Trump didnt really care that much about tariffs. He cares about fortifying US hegemony by cutting out China. But to be more precise Im going to fully outline what he cares about and then what hes trying to do about each. Top of the list are his primary issues that needed to be addressed quickly & forcefully: A) Chinas growing industrial technological and militaristic strength relative to the US B) A"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/1916976988671148150) 2025-04-28T22:05Z 41.5K followers, 268.5K engagements
"My concern with BTC in contrast to gold is that the former is to a large degree correlated to liquidity. And one of the sharpest arrows in the American quiver is weaponizing dollar access in a decoupling. Look at the recent Argentinian bailout and how it was structured. So reducing *global* liquidity temporarily when shit hits the fan may serve policy makers interest even as *domestic* liquidity is boosted via direct transfer payments and industry-level subsidies. That said I still anticipate a broad-based tsunami of stimulus into midterms late next year. So I hold BTC but am mentally bracing"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/1977375548243386508) 2025-10-12T14:07Z 41.5K followers, 68.6K engagements
"I want to be clear. I fully anticipate there will be plenty of countries that side with China. But that doesnt matter. We lose them and they lose access to the West as they know it. At some point in the future when their citizens realize how catastrophic being in a world dominated by China is they might come crawling back. Or maybe they decide a $5k BYD is worth having a social credit score. Idk. Frankly idgaf. Because those allies who choose (read bullied) to enter our new system will have the opportunity of the century to replace China as the primary exporter to the U.S. consumer with"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/1981893956356149727) 2025-10-25T01:21Z 41.5K followers, 21.2K engagements
"I dont think enough affluent New Yorkers have bothered looking at the NY Comptroller report. There are very material holes in the state budget that were filled by federal funding to offset heavy spend on migrants as part of NYCs sanctuary city initiative as well as general fiscal neglect. Trumps incentive is to allow Mamdani to take over and then ensure his tenure is a flaming dumpster fire by normalizing Federal funds back to pre-COVID baselines. This is a material step down vs the assumptions currently being made by the State. In other words the tactic will be to squeeze state finances and"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/1982893623466148334) 2025-10-27T19:34Z 41.5K followers, 585.7K engagements
"The more Yann LeCun interviews I listen to the more Im convinced the reason he was pushed out by Zuck was because Yann clearly despises the notion of the U.S. maintaining control over leading-edge AI and for all his faults Zuck is actually a patriot. All the labs are going to become increasingly closed source and I think that accelerates this year. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017082984365527163 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017082984365527163"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2017082984365527163) 2026-01-30T03:50Z 41.5K followers, 43K engagements
"Something to keep in mind on the eve of Anthropics new model"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019166230557475081) 2026-02-04T21:48Z 41.5K followers, 34.5K engagements
"closer to $2T now"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019204033182134286) 2026-02-05T00:18Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"You have to be a systems level thinker. Zoom in and zoom out. What are the LOs thinking How many boomer PMs knew what a Claude was a month ago How many have even thought about a world in ten years where software moats are gone How about in five CFOs are going to aggressively fire people. They are going to push their remaining engineers to aggressively use AI tools. They will aggressively acquire AI native startups. They will aggressively ramp their compute budgets and blow up near term gross margins. At a system level that re-enforces the narrative even tho every cfo is acting rationally. The"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019365256498159722) 2026-02-05T10:59Z 41.6K followers, 75.3K engagements
"@721WVT Flip side is all these services are what we spend money on daily. If the rent implodes the consumer captures 90% of the savings via price deflation. The problem is that doesnt help if youre unemployed. Universal high income is coming"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019418797099434051) 2026-02-05T14:32Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"But zoom out. That PM is just an input within a larger process which is overlayed with risk constraints and packaged for LPs to allocate capital to. That packages ultimate objective is to spit out superior returns downstream of the data an analyst ingests. Now zoom back down. Even before we talk about the PM bottleneck we need to talk about the analysts workflow. This AI analyst has never pitched a PM. Has never built a DCF. Never read a buyside memo or sellside note. So what do you do You breakdown the input bottleneck into underlying parts. You start with the premise that every prior"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019574673135005772) 2026-02-06T00:51Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@matrix_trader_d Race into not solve immediately"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020092719583097206) 2026-02-07T11:10Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"I talk a lot about the bull case re AI because I am fundamentally a maxi and recognize that Street has failed to frame the abstractions properly mostly due to intellectual shortcomings around non-linearity. Let me play the bear for a second. Normally mgmt is incentivized to take rational risks around ROIC and when the marginal capex doesnt pencil you return it to shareholders. But what is different this time is the variance of return has gone up dramatically as you start making preemptive bets on infra well ahead of demand. We havent reached this point yet. The math still pencils even if"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020261360794304530) 2026-02-07T22:20Z 41.6K followers, 77.9K engagements
"Accelerando anon https://t.co/4F8Bx1Z2bn https://t.co/4F8Bx1Z2bn"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020523162169978992) 2026-02-08T15:40Z 41.6K followers, 18.1K engagements
"@taobanker @evrgn11112231 @Dr_Gingerballs @silenttrader84 Same now - just switched to vy but havent used unless backlogged"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020862020757623181) 2026-02-09T14:07Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"Only Nixon could go to China. Only Warsh can cut rates preemptively into midterms on an AI-driven productivity deflation and unemployment impulse 😉"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020947209257353582) 2026-02-09T19:45Z 41.6K followers, 14.6K engagements
"GS MS JPM and Citadel should partner to open multiple Alpha schools in NYC where only parents who work at participating corps can enroll their kids. 99% of the utility of the top tier private schools is the filtering mechanism they provide and the signaling it achieves later in a kids education. This can just as effectively be accomplished by filtering parents with very light curtailment for disruptive kids. Would cost 70% less and act as an employee retention tool too. This is one of the big reasons why you still see [--] year old banking MDs work late nights and weekends despite making"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021014750721634547) 2026-02-10T00:13Z 41.5K followers, 173.2K engagements
"Everyone talks about the network affects of the SF tech ecosystem. Nobody talks about how easily you can get one-shotted the first time you date a Latina who recently immigrated from Brazil or Colombia. Wow. Zuck buying $150m home in Florida. Companies have a tendency to be near the CEO. Even part of the time. Could $META move some peeps to FL Employee base would love the state income tax rate. Gives everyone an immediate raise. https://t.co/4fj5aq3DUJ Wow. Zuck buying $150m home in Florida. Companies have a tendency to be near the CEO. Even part of the time. Could $META move some peeps to FL"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021035007700058276) 2026-02-10T01:34Z 41.5K followers, 57.5K engagements
"a16z consistently putting out quality content https://youtu.be/rSohMpT24SIsi=2TqELbHbmPuGO0om https://youtu.be/rSohMpT24SIsi=2TqELbHbmPuGO0om"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021045245648195593) 2026-02-10T02:15Z 41.5K followers, 15.7K engagements
"Never a good idea to bet against Balaji. But dont underestimate reflexivity in an age where information dispersement is radically higher than it ever was in the limited sample set that history provides. Hegemons dont rollover without a fight. The republic first became an empire. Many parallels between late Rome and America. Rome was an enormous egalitarian capitalist empire. Starting from an organic tribe it expanded to conquer huge swaths of territory and assimilate countless foreign tribes under its system of laws. Then it gradually lost the Many parallels between late Rome and America."
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021258855066264019) 2026-02-10T16:23Z 41.5K followers, 28.9K engagements
"IRS: you Venmod your side chick so she can get her nails done you owe us $2.89. Pay up bitch BLS: On jobs -- We are expecting about 666k downward revisions to March [----] payrolls level as part of the annual benchmarking. After all that's done (including birth and death model update in the post benchmark period) we expect Dec [----] to see a downward revision near [--] million. https://t.co/p3NPQID6Dz On jobs -- We are expecting about 666k downward revisions to March [----] payrolls level as part of the annual benchmarking. After all that's done (including birth and death model update in the post"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021302947141898655) 2026-02-10T19:19Z 41.5K followers, 15.1K engagements
"@evrgn11112231 Cathie grave dances on negative alpha guys Claude Capital grave dances on Cathie We are Bob (singularity) Jeremy Grantham is resurrected from cryofreeze to usher in the heath death of the universe"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021307014782099474) 2026-02-10T19:35Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@matt_slotnick A16Z YouTube channel"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021324634985988606) 2026-02-10T20:45Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"LLMs accelerates integration with other unhobbling mechanisms like integrating world models by providing scaffolding - looking at the limitations of the existing architecture is somewhat misleading. Weve reached the point where the researchers can rely on the models to execute code for new research ideas flawlessly which means the probabilities of breaking through bottlenecks has gone up not down. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021335787422298134 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021335787422298134"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021335787422298134) 2026-02-10T21:29Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"We got sw cos buying startups because their logo looks like Claudes We signed a definitive agreement to acquire Cimulate a leader in AI-powered product discovery. Upon close well integrate their context engine with Agentforce Commerce to help retailers move beyond keyword search to intuitive intent-driven discovery. https://t.co/9yh29G5Ux3 We signed a definitive agreement to acquire Cimulate a leader in AI-powered product discovery. Upon close well integrate their context engine with Agentforce Commerce to help retailers move beyond keyword search to intuitive intent-driven discovery."
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021338086979121219) 2026-02-10T21:38Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@MaulikAtanu Itll ramp faster than you think even if they dont crack NA EUV"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021344527576080429) 2026-02-10T22:04Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@JTDaly Nobody knows shit. Reflexivity and narrative matter long before revenue decels"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021419503658336698) 2026-02-11T03:02Z 41.5K followers, [--] engagements
"@sprk_77 Cursor for trades gonna get hella funding"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021430503505789046) 2026-02-11T03:46Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@luvtiggies @sprk_77 Use your imagination Claude code lets you develop AR glasses which lets you more efficiently do trades which lets you build more datacenters to build more Claude code 😉"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021441506725462473) 2026-02-11T04:29Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"I have a retarded cousin. Strong dude. Cant build anything for shit. Youre telling me China can make me lots more retarded cousins. Im telling you Id rather one guy who knows what hes doing. Oh and turns out that guy can build more guys fairly quickly. Intelligence is the constraint. Always was always will be"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021443180424577390) 2026-02-11T04:36Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Some of you called me schizo for saying this lol My friends at @AnthropicAI literally sit around a table and "pick [--] to [--] industries they can disrupt every week" and do whatever the best companies do but better. My friends at @AnthropicAI literally sit around a table and "pick [--] to [--] industries they can disrupt every week" and do whatever the best companies do but better"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021571902981001472) 2026-02-11T13:07Z 41.5K followers, 18.9K engagements
"@Utter_Savagery Debt jubilees are coming if we get deflation. Obviously"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021622206623551733) 2026-02-11T16:27Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@HighBetaTrader Anything by dwarkesh. A16z channel Matt Turk latent spaces moonshots"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021632655272677668) 2026-02-11T17:09Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@jaginger 10x that"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021636782652370957) 2026-02-11T17:25Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@VaccineMachine Flock Safety x 100"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021650179808809005) 2026-02-11T18:18Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@AmirF15336 @GavinSBaker Feasibility constraints and timing of space datacenters. Ways Elon can get around ASML for EUV. Odds China cracked EUV. AI impact on NVDA CUDA moat. Groq acq implications. SpaceX + TSLA merger. Open vs closed source diverging or converge with Blackwell could keep going 😂"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021716346371711021) 2026-02-11T22:41Z 41.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@LeroyHite_ @JTDaly Half way through. He still has extreme TDS. Not as interesting so far vs prior interviews"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022104972788478218) 2026-02-13T00:26Z 41.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Still gonna take boomer PMs another year before they try it Cowork is now available on Windows. Were bringing full feature parity with MacOS: file access multi-step task execution plugins and MCP connectors. https://t.co/329DqJz5q5 Cowork is now available on Windows. Were bringing full feature parity with MacOS: file access multi-step task execution plugins and MCP connectors. https://t.co/329DqJz5q5"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021338349685047394) 2026-02-10T21:39Z 41.7K followers, 120.3K engagements
"Read more sci-fi. Scifi world building has to grapple with change in societal structure and reflexivity. You read enough of it and your mental frame expands because your sample size of observed worlds increases from one to many Read more 🫡"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021630722809688361) 2026-02-11T17:01Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Soon the bull case on SaaS 😉 Twitter pre-Elon had [----] employees Now it has [--] So they downsized by 250x while getting more traffic and features built than ever I absolutely love this leanness so healthy Twitter pre-Elon had [----] employees Now it has [--] So they downsized by 250x while getting more traffic and features built than ever I absolutely love this leanness so healthy"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022066143549325520) 2026-02-12T21:51Z 41.7K followers, 18.2K engagements
"This is my Super Bowl Last time Dario was on it was one of my favorite episodes watching this now. Dario: 'I will tell you though what the most surprising thing has been. The most surprising thing has been the lack of public recognition of how close we are to the end of the exponential. To me it Last time Dario was on it was one of my favorite episodes watching this now. Dario: 'I will tell you though what the most surprising thing has been. The most surprising thing has been the lack of public recognition of how close we are to the end of the exponential. To me it"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022373157785444412) 2026-02-13T18:11Z 41.7K followers, 11.4K engagements
"If we had more time youd see a heavy push towards unionization. We dont and so we wont"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022389577554796704) 2026-02-13T19:17Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@Anointed_Ape Correct. But if the ramp had been slow theyd have attempted to prevent scaling via collective bargaining. Think port workers and automation"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022392762398839001) 2026-02-13T19:29Z 41.7K followers, [---] engagements
"If you work on the sellside you should consider putting together the following report: A) breakdown each sub-sector of services and knowledge work globally by employee count median and aggregate salary margins exposure to U.S. and China B) breakdown for each the median employees job tenure worker satisfaction and turnover cost to train typical education required for entry C) breakdown for each the % of time spent on specific tasks ranked by [--] - [--] based on complexity and time spent in a given workday D) continuous vs discrete nature of the job typical task duration and how swappable employees"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022400557143724394) 2026-02-13T20:00Z 41.7K followers, 13.7K engagements
"Was through PLTR - retarded article fun headline 😉"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022450624021869051) 2026-02-13T23:19Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Off by a factor of 10x Exclusive: Anduril is in talks with investors to raise billions more in funding at a valuation of roughly $60 billion. Read more from @Katie_Roof @PauValida and @CoryWeinberg 👇 https://t.co/dRe5cqCRmG Exclusive: Anduril is in talks with investors to raise billions more in funding at a valuation of roughly $60 billion. Read more from @Katie_Roof @PauValida and @CoryWeinberg 👇 https://t.co/dRe5cqCRmG"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022502626508836916) 2026-02-14T02:46Z 41.7K followers, 61.9K engagements
"In the coming days there will be a heavily-pushed narrative that because of how deep Chinas skilled manufacturing pool is the cost of decoupling is too great. This is false. Not because there is a readily available pool of similarly skilled talent ready to work elsewhere. There isnt. Its because when you fast forward two to three years from now when companies like Figure and Anduril are are attempting to ramp production and compete with Unitree and DJI if there isnt a readily available pool of manufacturing talent in the West then the world will default to ramping robotics production in"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/1910909307131953472) 2025-04-12T04:14Z 41.7K followers, 133.5K engagements
"Repeat after me: intelligence solves every bottleneck. Intelligence. Solves. Every. Bottleneck. If you dont believe this you are simply insufficiently intelligent. If you had more intelligence youd be able to imagine how a hypothetical increase in intelligence would solve your hypothetical bottleneck 😉 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019186356514181125 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019186356514181125"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019186356514181125) 2026-02-04T23:08Z 41.7K followers, 27.3K engagements
"Somewhere in the HQ of every AI lab there is a giant whiteboard. It breaks down every pool of economic rent extracted by the services economy based on market cap revenue and margins. It ranks these pools based on proximity to the existing research roadmap towards AGI and the ratio of intelligence to network effects and dependence on non-digital business process that each of these pools of economic rent have. It ranks them on regulatory factors. It ranks them on cost and tolerance of being wrong. And every single day the labs will systemically work towards destroying each of these pools. One"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019416407864131753) 2026-02-05T14:22Z 41.7K followers, 72.2K engagements
"Whenever someone tells me markets are efficient everyone understands the bet the hyperscalers are making I pull up this interview with Lukasz and check how many views it has. The vast majority of capital in this country is run by boomers who rely on a team of overworked millennial analysts who all leave work at 6pm and completely shut off their brain. Its a peaceful lush existence. They are driven competent and fine-tuned. They are polished. They have families and hobbies. They dont read sci-fi. They arent autistic or obsessive like most of the people on here. They still think musk is a fraud"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019589810407481433) 2026-02-06T01:51Z 41.7K followers, 227.5K engagements
"The problem is the people running hyperscalers are pussies and wont be willing to deal with the negative optics of firing people while their businesses are accelerating directly due to AI. META/AMZN Definitely. GOOG/MSFT Pussies. People forget that the hyperscalers do like $1.5t of revenue at 65% average gross margins and are adding $150-200b of revenue a year. The incremental GP dollars support a lot of GPUs and the decremetal opex dollars support a lot of GPUs. Yes big numbers. Welcome to these People forget that the hyperscalers do like $1.5t of revenue at 65% average gross margins and are"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019657999338607034) 2026-02-06T06:22Z 41.7K followers, 20.2K engagements
"Recursive loops. Ive spent a lot of time lately wondering how quickly a small team from Anthropic can replicate Fei Feis research of world models if they were equipped with Claude [--] + 5GW of compute + a couple of her former employees. What the LLMs arent enough people miss is that ofc they arent. But they allow you to construct the scaffolding far more quickly and effectively. Probabilistic and deterministic. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020571814595014675 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020571814595014675"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020571814595014675) 2026-02-08T18:53Z 41.7K followers, 10.7K engagements
"Macro prognosticators have not given enough thought to what it means for rates and consumer sentiment if sometime in the next [--] months we see 1m+ people get fired in the tech & consulting sector virtually overnight just as rideshare is slowing down hiring due robotaxi ramp and cant pick up any labor slack AI capex requires at least a $1T of revenue just on current spend rate to make the math pencil. Assuming $100k avg salary per mid-office knowledge worker every 1m employees fired saves you $100b of opex. We might get GDP expansion and output increase as well but to assume a smooth ramp"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021175850524168560) 2026-02-10T10:54Z 41.7K followers, 17.4K engagements
"This is by far my most important tweet. If china scales intelligent robots before us its over. They can use the robots to secure the commodities (with force) and build more fabs. It is an insurmountable first mover advantage. We muse decouple the West before then. You dont want to see what the CCP is capable of when it has a monopoly on global violence and intelligence. In the coming days there will be a heavily-pushed narrative that because of how deep Chinas skilled manufacturing pool is the cost of decoupling is too great. This is false. Not because there is a readily available pool of"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021178892912865307) 2026-02-10T11:06Z 41.7K followers, 47.1K engagements
"As Americans when you see advances in AI you immediately extrapolate to the rest of the American population asking who will use this who will be hurt by this but its always with the frame that anyone who wants to participate will be able to. That is wrong. We are going to weaponize the shit out of access. If Trump doesnt like your prime minister you are going to be stuck on last gen open source running on Huawei GPUs. And they are going to force AI labs to lock down APIs to prevent open source distillations at the barrel of a gun. You have to start thinking of the world as those who have and"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021430122687905813) 2026-02-11T03:44Z 41.7K followers, 31.5K engagements
"JUST IN - U.S. military engaged high-energy lasers to shoot down what appeared to be foreign drones near the southern border. The flying material turned out to be a party balloon. One balloon was shot down CBS JUST IN - U.S. military engaged high-energy lasers to shoot down what appeared to be foreign drones near the southern border. The flying material turned out to be a party balloon. One balloon was shot down CBS"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021653885983879403) 2026-02-11T18:33Z 41.7K followers, 11.4K engagements
"If youre not having fun right now as a tech investor you are probably on tilt and should take risk down for a month or two at a minimum and use the time to understand the maxi view of the world. This is not the time to be doubling down on what you think you know"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022085528573903145) 2026-02-12T23:08Z 41.7K followers, 16.2K engagements
"Salesforce invests in Anthropic colorized X turned into a blogging platform and I caved. In my defense @AnthropicAI 's Series G and crossing $14B in run-rate revenue felt worth more than [---] characters so it's for a good cause 😎 A lot of people dont know this but @SalesforceVC has been an investor in Anthropic X turned into a blogging platform and I caved. In my defense @AnthropicAI 's Series G and crossing $14B in run-rate revenue felt worth more than [---] characters so it's for a good cause 😎 A lot of people dont know this but @SalesforceVC has been an investor in Anthropic"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022104237170389090) 2026-02-13T00:23Z 41.7K followers, 19.3K engagements
"@T3_RM Dont mistake inference from training"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022265270094479854) 2026-02-13T11:03Z 41.7K followers, [---] engagements
"There are at least 1k+ boomer PMs who were sent Dwarkesh podcast links consistently over the last two years and every single one went unopened. Today will be different. Today they will finally open the podcast link. They can no longer avoid reality just because Burry and Chanos told them its ok to. You have to understand the Boomer PM if you plan to trade against them. Markets arent efficient. The @DarioAmodei interview. 0:00:00 - What exactly are we scaling 0:12:36 - Is diffusion cope 0:29:42 - Is continual learning necessary 0:46:20 - If AGI is imminent why not buy more compute 0:58:49 -"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022376773724315950) 2026-02-13T18:26Z 41.7K followers, 90.8K engagements
"Dario said RL scaling is loglinearbearish No retard incremental IQ is exponentially more valuable. Oppenheimer and Teller were worth ten million Soviet soldiers. Druckenmiller is worth more than the entirety of sellside and most of buyside research. Ilya is worth more than the combined workforce at Docusign. If you cant appreciate that you probably havent interacted with truly high IQ people before. If we have to take apart the moon to build a giga-cluster of compute so be it. As long as scaling holds"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022379730507567112) 2026-02-13T18:37Z 41.7K followers, 33.4K engagements
"Whenever Dario says a trillion in revenue I want you to replace it with roughly 15m unemployed voters in your head. Then assume every democrat politician will have watched this interview before midterms. And ask yourself what is their likely next step. Understand systems. Dario does. Thats why he tries to frame it as revenue because his comms person is non-autistic enough to understand his framing the last two times he was on Dwarkesh were a liability"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022395755852374132) 2026-02-13T19:41Z 41.7K followers, 35.1K engagements
"@rickmayo_ @Anointed_Ape Theyre going public. But govt has an implicit stake and thats sufficient if youre American"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022396402421371019) 2026-02-13T19:44Z 41.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@Midnight_Captl Oh ofc. Thats why I said 15m not 20m"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022404941248368829) 2026-02-13T20:18Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"The left will attack Dario over jobs. The right will attack Dario over access for non-Americans before the U.S. can secure commodity supply chains for robotics"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022407130339570075) 2026-02-13T20:26Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"As you ponder the marginal utility of intelligence there are some important framings that you can play with. Why is Peter Thiel a billionaire and Terrence Tao is not Why is the median IQ of a Fortune [---] CEO not [---] Why are there roughly 2m males in the world with an IQ of over [---] and yet we have far fewer important companies or technological breakthroughs over the last few decades. Why are high IQ people risk adverse Why arent there many high IQ artists What has prevented society from funneling intelligence into invention until now and how might that change What are the organizational"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022440312292180437) 2026-02-13T22:38Z 41.7K followers, 38.8K engagements
"You should kickstart a bounty program. Let a million @nickshirleyy get at it. Offer Grok access/compute stipends for those who show initial success identifying fraud. Incentivize people to build dashboards start a leaderboard easy API plugs with other data sources to cross tabulate relevant census data for example let people extrapolate likely illegals usage patterns in blue vs red states and based on hospital filings extrapolate taxpayer costs as % of systems revenue etc"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022443795598451162) 2026-02-13T22:52Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"New TAM unlocked 😂"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022449719243592011) 2026-02-13T23:16Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Dario is the most maxi-pilled and intelligent of the major lab heads. He therefore understands whats at-stake in a visceral way that those that are less certain in the technologies trajectory do not. From day one he was talking about nation-state espionage and building in-house security precautions. Unfortunately this works in reverse too. As Xi and the non-maxi boomers around him realize how valuable AI is going to be the amount of effort China puts into closing the gap is going to 10x. DeepSeek was luck Seedance was focus MiniMax was skill. Now that Xi knows what AI might be able to do the"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022482240186310842) 2026-02-14T01:25Z 41.7K followers, 65.4K engagements
"Inject this straight into my veins WE IN AMERICA HAVE NO INTEREST IN BEING POLITE AND ORDERLY CARETAKERS OF THE WESTS MANAGED DECLINE https://t.co/b0A1n8FANs WE IN AMERICA HAVE NO INTEREST IN BEING POLITE AND ORDERLY CARETAKERS OF THE WESTS MANAGED DECLINE https://t.co/b0A1n8FANs"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022681014728823268) 2026-02-14T14:35Z 41.7K followers, 139K engagements
"Three objectives three time frames: A) short-term 6mo to 1yr - control yield curve bring fiscal situation under control B) near-term 1yr to 2yr- decouple supply chains from China ensure resiliency of military to provide credible deterrence against a TW invasion. This can include friendshoring only if the underpinning supply is in fact located in the allys boarders. A china skin i.e. Vietnam where the bulk of value-add is imported is not acceptable because that can still be weaponized by Xi. C) medium-term 3yr to 5yr resuscitate domestic manufacturing have sufficient infrastructure to maintain"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/1908267692508737927) 2025-04-04T21:17Z 41.6K followers, 262.8K engagements
"You should be paying more attention to whats about to happen in Venezuela"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/1961023517157167242) 2025-08-28T11:10Z 41.6K followers, 670K engagements
"Bridge is the most under-rated person in the admin. His book Strategy of Denial is a must-read re China. The architect of US defense strategy Elbridge Colby published his playbook years before taking office. Most haven't read it. In my report I break down his framework show its influence on the NSS & why the "spheres of influence" theory gets it wrong. https://t.co/3tyHU5Cpg3 The architect of US defense strategy Elbridge Colby published his playbook years before taking office. Most haven't read it. In my report I break down his framework show its influence on the NSS & why the "spheres of"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2009424741669437895) 2026-01-09T00:39Z 41.6K followers, 198.5K engagements
"As a maxi one of my major concerns is that the quality of AI-produced VR content is going to get so good so quickly that large portions of society are going to opt-out of participating in the ramp of real-life infra we need to make robotics-driven abundance a reality. There is a timing mismatch and even a couple year lag is sufficient to see large swathes of the pop just not care if the real-world gets better when they no longer are participating in it. Sounds crazy and I get accused of dropping acid before I post but just consider how much further you can push the envelope in the digital"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019148514400620747) 2026-02-04T20:38Z 41.6K followers, 11.6K engagements
"@BenniKim More intelligence. Smarter robots. Figure out how to mine the ocean floors and asteroids 😉"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019371868189520048) 2026-02-05T11:25Z 41.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@nic_carter Society is reflexive - tiger moms will be pushing their kids into BCI and weapons-grade nootropics within a decade. That plus things like alpha school"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2019899340316098645) 2026-02-06T22:21Z 41.6K followers, [----] engagements
"AI labs are going to race into biotech accounting consulting and law because they understand when software as a sector deflates -90% overnight the ROI on $3T in cumulative spend doesnt pencil and they better be ready with an answer to how they will circumvent the human bottlenecks. Software took three years to destroy. Other sectors will take significantly less time given the increased compute and coding capacity internally. The appetite is in the eating. there is no reason to expect capital owners to come out of this chixculub looking event mostly intact. many knowledge and technical moats"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020067091294957643) 2026-02-07T09:28Z 41.6K followers, 47.5K engagements
"If you are an early Anthropic employee and are maxi af and AGI-pilled and have been paid $1m+ cash comp annually on top of $50m+ in now liquid stock. Do you sell into the IPO because you believe money will be worthless in a decade or do you not sell at all because you think maintaining a stake is the only way to avoid the permanent underclass 🤔 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020131230864347314 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020131230864347314"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020131230864347314) 2026-02-07T13:43Z 41.6K followers, 97.6K engagements
"Remember when people were extrapolating from GPT5 Pepperidge Farm remembers Most of you werent around or paying attention during the ramp phase of GOOG and then META. When a new hyperscaler is entering the ramp phase of their product roadmap and are firing on all cylinders the cadence of new releases and unintuitive leaps looks entirely different vs Most of you werent around or paying attention during the ramp phase of GOOG and then META. When a new hyperscaler is entering the ramp phase of their product roadmap and are firing on all cylinders the cadence of new releases and unintuitive leaps"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021354667079532610) 2026-02-10T22:44Z 41.6K followers, 13.3K engagements
"@MattJoass Sharing links takes a lot more effort :("
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022266489114378645) 2026-02-13T11:07Z 41.6K followers, [--] engagements
"@MattJoass Presumably you can ask Claude/ Gemini to construct playlist based on screenshots"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022266616151515416) 2026-02-13T11:08Z 41.6K followers, [--] engagements
"@KevinRomeis @frankdegods The narrative will be I am curing cancer why do you hate sick grandmas"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022418304405770565) 2026-02-13T21:11Z 41.6K followers, [--] engagements
"Trumps tolerance for market pain is a lot higher than you think. Because there is a plan. It might not be a good plan. But it is a complex plan that anticipated a crash. Not because they want a crash. Not because they are dumb enough to think equities down -50% is good for the yield curve. Because the only way to coerce a full global decoupling from China is to play max hardball and move quickly. Because the first counter-attack was always going to be financial - because China correctly understands the West is over-financialized - and most people in Washington know China thinks that because"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/1909944559037018332) 2025-04-09T12:20Z 41.6K followers, 308.7K engagements
"Step 1) 100% tariffs on all Canadian imports until Carney shuts out China Step 2) Let Carney dig in with rhetoric that Canada wont be bullied Step 3) Raise tariffs to 300% and use emergency measures to replace energy imports using nat gas upgrading refineries to handle lighter shale drawing from SPR increase MX imports lift VZ sanctions Step 4) Wait a few months ignore Carney Step 5) Wait for Alberta to get really angry and start talking about secession Step 6) Offer to oversee referendum Step 7) Wait for polling data to show Alberta is likely to vote for secession Step 8) Ultimatum to Carney"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/1917065035769110809) 2025-04-29T03:54Z 41.6K followers, 281.5K engagements
"Next up on the agenda is a buyout of the cartels in Mexico. You cant invest in Mexico without predictability and you dont have predictability if investors are worried of a cartel resurgence when Trump is gone. But cartels can inflict a lot of causalities if they have no off ramp. So you do the following: A) blackmail Claudia using the CIA threatening to leak years of evidence that she and her cabinet are all bought by the cartels ✅ B) reach out to the higher ups at each major faction offering a one-time opportunity to move their illicit gains to miami and a pardon in exchange for providing"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2007518641621794985) 2026-01-03T18:25Z 41.6K followers, 71.3K engagements
"@quantLR @hamptonism Oh for sure. Sucks balls rn"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022004554959925542) 2026-02-12T17:47Z 41.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Two days old under 3k views Whenever someone tells me markets are efficient everyone understands the bet the hyperscalers are making I pull up this interview with Lukasz and check how many views it has. The vast majority of capital in this country is run by boomers who rely on a team of overworked https://t.co/87i6ByUprn Whenever someone tells me markets are efficient everyone understands the bet the hyperscalers are making I pull up this interview with Lukasz and check how many views it has. The vast majority of capital in this country is run by boomers who rely on a team of overworked"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020147760767356941) 2026-02-07T14:48Z 41.6K followers, 167.6K engagements
"If AI works why will we even need money Because path function matters. We need to build the robots to start the abundance flywheel. At least the first million robots. And if we deprecate money too quickly well have everyone sitting at home gooning to GPT6 instead of contributing to the infra ramp. So comp for effort goes up but money still retains value for the next five years. After that economic singularity or paperclips. Idk 🤷♂"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021434042567016776) 2026-02-11T04:00Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"If Taiwan got nuked tonight it wouldnt prevent AGI. We have sufficient compute install base in the U.S. to run research if we are willing to deprecate inference. If China went for Taiwan right now the U.S. govt would gear the economy in a war time footing and Hegseth will not think twice about directing the slop cat video factories from being solely focused on achieving a model smart enough to design anti-hypersonics. Only thing stopping this train are scaling laws not holding and robotics going unsolved for another five years instead of my base case of two. That buys you time to get to a dem"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021439033298063731) 2026-02-11T04:19Z 41.7K followers, 25K engagements
"@quantLR @hamptonism Ive been in the beta for almost a year now 🫡"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021983661084881261) 2026-02-12T16:24Z 41.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@sprk_77 Scaffolding and architecture matters which requires research and large training runs which requires compute"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022296674404561335) 2026-02-13T13:07Z 41.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Ill spell it out explicitly one last time. Everyone thinks Trump wants balanced trade. He does not. He wants to force allies to stop trading with China. Completely. Zero inbound supply. Because its not just because of American jobs. Its a proactive move to slow down Chinas industrial rise. Everything is downstream of this. Reserve currency status. The ability to address fiscal debt. Its a crazy risk because China has a vote. Its a crazy risk because you are forcing Europe to commit seppeku because they have very little leverage or say in the matter. Its a crazy risk because Xi might bomb the"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1909491586641047713) 2025-04-08T06:20Z 41.7K followers, 2M engagements
"We are in the piss off the Canadians phase which will quickly lead to the Canadians double-down leaning-into China phase which will be ultimately followed by the Trump will crush the Canadian economy very publicly like a bug phase serving as a warning for anyone contemplating continued transshipment transgressions once they are enforced https://t.co/oTPthgYXgS https://t.co/oTPthgYXgS"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021009091603419463) 2026-02-09T23:51Z 41.7K followers, 90.6K engagements
"I think about this a lot not enough people are emotionally prepared for if its not a bubble not enough people are emotionally prepared for if its not a bubble"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021337268406100272) 2026-02-10T21:35Z 41.6K followers, 60.4K engagements
"Read this. Do this. https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021426501875331402) 2026-02-11T03:30Z 41.7K followers, 141.4K engagements
"Software saleswoman as a practice is gonna head to (almost) zero much faster than you think.execs wont be able to accept wine and dining when pricing is nuking to zero and transparency around tool use at board level is increasing radically. Look at wall st sales practices as trading was automated. Less strip clubs and luxurious outings more slop with a $300 per head max. Now play that forward 10x"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021637977206595749) 2026-02-11T17:30Z 41.7K followers, 13.9K engagements
"You all arent ready for a world where the median voter trusts the AI more than they trust politicians journalists or their best friends. A lot of division is driven by reinforced bubbles that will be popped. Easy to delude yourself by surrounding yourself with confirming voices. Harder to do when the bot reminds you constantly that you selected the biased mode to ingest and it has supporting datapoints for an objective truth that it can present and research"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2021705241985450314) 2026-02-11T21:57Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"What happens when AI drives more compute drives more AI Youre about to find out 😉 Weve upgraded our specialized reasoning mode Gemini [--] Deep Think to help solve modern science research and engineering challenges pushing the frontier of intelligence. 🧠 Watch how the Wang Lab at Duke University is using it to design new semiconductor materials. 🧵 https://t.co/BgSEmv00JP Weve upgraded our specialized reasoning mode Gemini [--] Deep Think to help solve modern science research and engineering challenges pushing the frontier of intelligence. 🧠 Watch how the Wang Lab at Duke University is using it"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022005580274286620) 2026-02-12T17:51Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"The models will be locked down. Open source will fall behind. But there is a lag and in the coming months models will first converge before the compute gap starts to show itself. OPENAI: DEEPSEEK IS DISTILLING U.S. MODELS TO GAIN AN EDGE AND HAS ONGOING EFFORTS TO FREE-RIDE ON U.S. INNOVATION MEMO OPENAI: DEEPSEEK IS DISTILLING U.S. MODELS TO GAIN AN EDGE AND HAS ONGOING EFFORTS TO FREE-RIDE ON U.S. INNOVATION MEMO"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022092308523675916) 2026-02-12T23:35Z 41.7K followers, 20.6K engagements
"All the homies hate Kalshi if you're wondering why polymarket is doing a free grocery in NYC it might be coded jab at competitor Kalshi: it's not well known their CEO is a big fan/friend of communist mayor Mamdani if you're wondering why polymarket is doing a free grocery in NYC it might be coded jab at competitor Kalshi: it's not well known their CEO is a big fan/friend of communist mayor Mamdani"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022094139542966767) 2026-02-12T23:43Z 41.7K followers, 11.7K engagements
"The U.S. govt quietly went to each major AI lab and had a long heart-to-heart on why Zucks initial plan to open-source leading-edge models was foolish. Someone from state dept pulled up those videos of Chinese drone swarms and asked each lab head how theyd feel if the headlines in WSJ read: METAs Avocado model powers attack on USS Ford 3k dead But timing matters. Shut off distillation too early and Chinese get desperate. Instead you wait until Blackwell starts ramping and then everyone locks-down leading-edge model APIs simultaneously. Its a collective action problem and Saks/Sriram have"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022261380233998732) 2026-02-13T10:47Z 41.7K followers, 53.1K engagements
"X now makes it kinda pointless to share YT links on here but if anyone cares Ill share screenshots of my podcast history/que so if you see something thats interesting you can go find it manually. If its helpful lmk otherwise dont want to spam"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022264681180590408) 2026-02-13T11:00Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Anyone see any good work on impact to US markets from South Koreas recent policy shifts encouraging domestic capital flows Something to be mindful of if Japan and others follow suit. Could be nothing 🤷♂ Papers research notes or pods appreciated 🫡"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022343331125276825) 2026-02-13T16:13Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@Midnight_Captl As you should be"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022407378835271942) 2026-02-13T20:27Z 41.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Good cop - bad cop. Bessent - Vance. Rubio - Vance. Homan - Bovino. Recognize the pattern 🫡"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022686188323131518) 2026-02-14T14:55Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Looking forward to reading this 🔥 https://t.co/6sfBdytNzi https://t.co/6sfBdytNzi"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022694166049038827) 2026-02-14T15:27Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Re capital rotation: My input as a maxi is the time between when market realized AI is coming for software (3 yrs) and when market realize its coming for every other services sector is going to be much much shorter and when that happens capital is going to flood into the hyperscalers due to TINA. Furthermore as the labs lock down access to cutting edge models people will realize open source will begin falling behind and capital is going to rotate out of ROW into US and within US specifically into hyperscalers. America is going to hoard intelligence. The only real competitor is China. If Im"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2020105372736926155) 2026-02-07T12:00Z 41.7K followers, 124K engagements
"Obviously tie back to public companies and sectors as final step"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022401358369034348) 2026-02-13T20:03Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"RT @abcampbell: bc hes not an idiot"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022440063037005874) 2026-02-13T22:37Z 41.7K followers, [--] engagements
"@anotherbearcap @alwayslearni Industries that have trouble retaining employees (call centers warehouse workers) are desperate to adopt an alt"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022441007674200340) 2026-02-13T22:41Z 41.7K followers, [---] engagements
"should kickstart a bounty program. Let a million @nickshirleyy get at it. Offer Grok access/compute stipends for those who show initial success identifying fraud. Incentivize people to build dashboards start a leaderboard easy API plugs with other data sources to cross tabulate relevant census data for example let people extrapolate likely illegals usage patterns in blue vs red states and based on hospital filings extrapolate taxpayer costs as % of systems revenue etc Medicaid data has been open sourced so the level of fraud is easy to identify. @DOGE is not a department its a state of mind."
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022443954323730556) 2026-02-13T22:53Z 41.7K followers, 13.6K engagements
"Dam I thought Billie said we were living on stolen land and IP or some shit like that SAG-AFTRA Statement on Seedance [---]. https://t.co/Etl8bsj5tA SAG-AFTRA Statement on Seedance [---]. https://t.co/Etl8bsj5tA"
[X Link](https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/2022500513854689683) 2026-02-14T02:37Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@TMTLongShort Just Another Pod Guy
Just Another Pod Guy posts on X about ai, china, we are, in the the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-------] #
- [--] Week [---------] +134%
- [--] Month [---------] +65%
- [--] Months [----------] +179%
- [--] Year [----------] +13,008%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [---] +59%
- [--] Month [---] +130%
- [--] Months [-----] +136%
- [--] Year [-----] +1,357%
Followers: [------] #
- [--] Week [------] +5.40%
- [--] Month [------] +34%
- [--] Months [------] +114%
- [--] Year [------] +1,113%
CreatorRank: [------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence countries #6729 technology brands 15.84% finance 14.36% stocks 3.47% social networks 3.47% automotive brands 1.98% vc firms 1.98% cryptocurrencies 1.49% celebrities 1.49% travel destinations 1.49%
Social topic influence ai #2138, china #1405, we are #1561, in the 4.95%, anthropic #1415, if you #1426, the most #1048, the first 2.97%, open ai #2602, at least #120
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @scorpiotiger77 @ewinsberg @tquestmind @maulikatanu @artkeller @drgingerballs @frankdegods @sprk_77 @volgreatduke @richard15322800 @jtdaly @quantlr @benitoz @traderhc @dr_gingerballs @michaeltastad @matrixtraderd @edwinvanderberg @sbo8085 @gloeschi
Top assets mentioned Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Now Coin (NOW) Atlassian Corporation PLC (TEAM)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Think about this the next time you think Washington is cool with NVDA selling chips to China. or when Europe trades with China which in-turn funds Beijings investments in militarizing their manufacturing capacity. Watch this video. Now imagine this swarm controlled by AI agents with an explosive on each drone. It's Biblical. https://t.co/PF5ToZskGw Watch this video. Now imagine this swarm controlled by AI agents with an explosive on each drone. It's Biblical. https://t.co/PF5ToZskGw"
X Link 2026-02-07T13:19Z 41.7K followers, 14.3K engagements
"You should be reading a lot more sci-fi & fantasy. Between now and true ASI the most valuable skill will be imagination and the ability to mentally simulate abstract future potential states quickly. The AI will provide the execution. The middle to middle as @balajis calls it will be commoditized. Ideas are the gaiting factor for progress and the last thing to disappear. Start building that muscle now"
X Link 2025-09-26T15:12Z 41.5K followers, 15.6K engagements
"Too many people focus on the risk of China gutting AI profits via DeepSeek you should be a lot more worried about what happens to global pharma profits when China is allowing AI-enabled challenger trials and the FDA continues throttling acceleration in the U.S. The reason decoupling cant be a U.S. only thing is China will soon realize offering superior drugs is a lot friendlier of an export vs BYDs to most of the developed world You need to shut them out and then let Western firms monetize Chinese IP otherwise the whole system implodes as return on Western R&D nukes to zero like it has in"
X Link 2026-01-02T22:46Z 41.3K followers, 70.4K engagements
"Let me explain why this was all very predictable. You see Trump benefits from Carneys intransigence. The more publicly he spits in the eye of the hegemon that keeps him safe and accounts for 20% of his GDP the more attention he gets. And so when Trump destroys the Canadian economy come July every European and Asian trade partner will be watching. Trump gets to send a message in a very low risk manner. Because unlike Europe Canada has zero cards. Not a single one. Nada. For context during the GFC the U.S. economy dropped by -4% Canadas GDP will likely get hit quite a bit harder. And thats"
X Link 2026-01-16T18:23Z 41.2K followers, 114.3K engagements
"I think he is a patriot who understands if there is a way to salvage the existing system while restructuring it to benefit Americans then that is the optimal thing to do for Americans. I think the Vance faction believes the world is too far gone. Because of this split Bessent has a lot more cards than he otherwise would have because it means he is the good cop. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014446861159927951 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014446861159927951"
X Link 2026-01-22T21:15Z 39.5K followers, 438.3K engagements
"Its right there on the first page 🤦♂ Beware the loud proud and very wrong. The US Dollar lost over 10% of its value under Scott Bessent. Yet this clown claims to be America first. https://t.co/xF5vFnUGAQ The US Dollar lost over 10% of its value under Scott Bessent. Yet this clown claims to be America first. https://t.co/xF5vFnUGAQ"
X Link 2026-01-28T03:28Z 40.9K followers, 132.9K engagements
"This is what the bear case for software looks like. Seems unintuitive. Im using robinhood as an example because it is specifically not a traditional software name and seen as a clownshow. Just wait until Microsoft and Amazon start doing the equivalent. You need a throat to choke. Yeah and when large scaled players have thousands of engineers utilizing millions of Claude bots what do you think theyll be busy doing all day Moving horizontally for a fraction of the economic rent the incumbents charge. And this is an analogy nothing more. Before all the retards start coming at me with the"
X Link 2026-01-28T20:38Z 41.2K followers, 133.2K engagements
"World models are the obvious killer app for VR. Zuck should triple down on Reality Labs. Id expect Genie [--] or [--] will be able to one-shot full games. A creator will describe the story world characters main quests core gameplay mechanics and AI will one-shot you a full game. Extreme productivity boost. [--] person instead of [----]. One day instead of five years. Id expect Genie [--] or [--] will be able to one-shot full games. A creator will describe the story world characters main quests core gameplay mechanics and AI will one-shot you a full game. Extreme productivity boost. [--] person instead of 1000."
X Link 2026-01-31T17:15Z 39.4K followers, 15.4K engagements
"Chinese politics is a black box and so Ive avoided opining on the recent military drama But Im seeing a number of attempts to spin this as a clear indication that China isnt ready to attempt a move on Taiwan That seems wrong to me. You can just as easily say this is Xi loading the gun and putting it on the table. The primary impediments to attempting a move on TW were: 1) repercussions to Chinas trade status with the West 2) risk that the U.S. defends the island and hundreds of thousands of Chinese perish in the attempt Zhang Youxia and co were the rare officers who had actual prior combat"
X Link 2026-02-01T02:29Z 40.6K followers, 29.5K engagements
"Long-shot lotto parlay bet for 2026: Musk merges SpaceX into TSLA and then does a $100b equity offering which he uses to fund a US chip fab via a JV structure that gives the U.S. govt a stake with participation by SoftBank NVDA and OpenAI. Structures an IP licensing deal with INTC to jumpstart technical knowledge. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017794938017132980 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017794938017132980"
X Link 2026-02-01T02:59Z 41.4K followers, 32.8K engagements
"Warsh this Warsh that we are going to run it fucking hot. Dont get it twisted"
X Link 2026-02-01T16:19Z 41.5K followers, 68.6K engagements
"This whole debate feels like when that marlene account on crypto twitter was debating if mercury in retrograde meant bullish for altcoin prices. Guys end of the day Bessent locked candidates in a room and made them swear to do what he tells them. His background/resume is just misdirection"
X Link 2026-02-01T16:32Z 41.5K followers, 10.4K engagements
"I dont think people appreciate how close we are to Hunger Games: AI Labs Edition for everything compute related. Marginal ROI on compute is increasing not decreasing. If one or two incremental use-cases take off the way Claude Code/Clawdbot did the near-to-medium term shortages in everything are going to get extreme. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018252777483301056 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018252777483301056"
X Link 2026-02-02T09:18Z 41.5K followers, 25.6K engagements
"This goes without saying but if the SpaceX bull case is reliant on ramping compute in space as aggressively as possible the telcos broadly are going to have a very bad time over the next decade. Yes I am aware of the difficulties of serving high density urban areas. Dont come at me with physics lessons. Im not retarded. If musk is scaling even a fraction of the 100GW/year hes talking about the deflationary impact to serving consumers at the margin will be seismic. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018478937802690762 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018478937802690762"
X Link 2026-02-03T00:17Z 41.3K followers, 28.6K engagements
"Immediate priority*"
X Link 2026-02-03T00:24Z 39.4K followers, [----] engagements
"If you are confused as to why software puked today and are clinging to the notion that this is just the baby thrown out with the bath water you owe it to your grandchildren to go watch at least ten episodes of the Moonshots podcast tonight to understand how far we are from the median boomer PM actually sounding liking a maxi. Do it for your grandchildren so they dont have to grow up scrounging in the dumpyards for recycled RAM sticks 😉"
X Link 2026-02-03T18:35Z 41.4K followers, 51.9K engagements
"The beatings will continue until Tepper gets on CNBC and ritualistically executes a Clawdbot and eats it"
X Link 2026-02-03T20:04Z 41.5K followers, 15K engagements
"Yes This might as well be my position piece on the current administration. Spot on with how I see it https://t.co/dVsVLHIYl8 H/t @AllsupChris This might as well be my position piece on the current administration. Spot on with how I see it https://t.co/dVsVLHIYl8 H/t @AllsupChris"
X Link 2026-02-04T14:19Z 41.4K followers, 150.1K engagements
"Reflexivity is a beautiful thing. SaaS CFOs realize investors now care about FCF less SBC as a metric and start pulling back on stock comp. RSUs are underwater. AI-first startups are hiring talented engineers and still accruing VC dollars. Talented engineers at SaaS cos feel underpaid and are more likely to be maxi-pilled given proximity to Claude and so quickly jump ship. Shitty employees feel underpaid but desperately cling to existing employer because they realize nobody values their (lack of) skills. Incumbent SaaS cos become shells of their former self. Narrative that SaaS is dying"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:57Z 41.4K followers, 27.1K engagements
"👑👑👑 🚨 LMAO Scott Bessent just SET OFF a Democrat Congressman who was screaming at him incoherently BESSENT: Could you speak a little louder please I cant hear you 🤣🔥 REP. LYNCH: YEAH OK Democrats deserve to be treated like children https://t.co/65frBdgaqM 🚨 LMAO Scott Bessent just SET OFF a Democrat Congressman who was screaming at him incoherently BESSENT: Could you speak a little louder please I cant hear you 🤣🔥 REP. LYNCH: YEAH OK Democrats deserve to be treated like children https://t.co/65frBdgaqM"
X Link 2026-02-04T18:21Z 39.4K followers, 14.3K engagements
"Chills 🔥 RIP Hollywood. AI is now 100% photorealistic with the launch of Kling [---] In just two days I created the opening sequence from The Way of Kings by Brandon Sanderson You have to try this new Multi-Shot technique that makes making films much faster and cheaper 🧵👇 https://t.co/tqZCnsP96J RIP Hollywood. AI is now 100% photorealistic with the launch of Kling [---] In just two days I created the opening sequence from The Way of Kings by Brandon Sanderson You have to try this new Multi-Shot technique that makes making films much faster and cheaper 🧵👇 https://t.co/tqZCnsP96J"
X Link 2026-02-04T19:42Z 39.4K followers, 18.4K engagements
"People at Anthropic understand this viscerally. People in academia and finance throwing stones do not"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:11Z 41.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@michaeltastad Just wait till you hear about Docusign 😉"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:15Z 41.3K followers, [---] engagements
"(Source: A16Z)"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:20Z 39.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Mfw why didnt you just quote tweet the Anthropic ads with this shit instead of a three page essay Codex is now over [--] million active users Codex is now over [--] million active users"
X Link 2026-02-05T01:44Z 41.3K followers, 10.3K engagements
"Counter-intuitive point: the more aggressively the hyperscalers push their current AI capex the faster the need to defend Taiwan erodes in [----]. Think of it as pulling forward latent capacity. Ofc if we bomb the fabs in [----] and hand it off to China there will be pain. But in that world what we have is a much faster TSMC ramp in AZ due to the increased demand in [----] and the ability for the U.S. to repurpose all those GWs that were meant to serve the rest of the world at scale for only American customers. You basically make defending Taiwan a problem for everyone but Americans and Chinese."
X Link 2026-02-05T10:08Z 41.3K followers, 13.5K engagements
"@atelicinvest Just wait until the European boomer PMs get to use ChatGPT for the first time in 2027"
X Link 2026-02-05T11:24Z 39.4K followers, [----] engagements
"I have explained why I disagree with Balaji re the collapse of the rules-based order due to reflexivity and the transition from republic to empire. But on crypto in particular its worth considering near-term a lot of tech employees are about to either get laid off or feel very insecure about their future employment prospects. The top 5% of tech will be thriving and ebullient. They work at the labs. Its the other 95% who are now recalibrating their risk tolerance that I worry about. Does the middle-manager at ADBE dump his BTC to make sure he can cover his mortgage if he gets laid off due to"
X Link 2026-02-05T11:41Z 41.2K followers, 30.8K engagements
"@matrix_trader_d Would you prefer we lie and say we care about you Would a taiwanese volunteer to defend america if we were invaded by canada 😉"
X Link 2026-02-05T11:44Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@kellangrenier Yeah saw and same"
X Link 2026-02-05T11:57Z 39.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@VolGreatDuke The other 2/3rds is gold 😉"
X Link 2026-02-05T12:52Z 40.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@VolGreatDuke Not sure - even tho geopol risk is underpriced Im not sure that matters if govt is backstopping hyperscalers and running economy hot. Its in my too hard bucket"
X Link 2026-02-05T13:15Z 39.5K followers, [---] engagements
"No body likes to believe they are dumb so they need to be slapped in the face by reality (Claude etc) instead of preemptively pricing in the possibility that the highest concentration of IQ in human history at the labs might have a plan to overcome the very obvious obstacles THAT'S WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING PEOPLE CAN ONLY CONCEIVE OF DOING THINGS WITH AI TOOLS THAT THEY CAN CONCEIVE OF DOING WITH AI TOOLS SO BEING INTELLIGENT IS ACTUALLY A BIGGER ADVANTAGE THAN EVER BECAUSE YOU HAVE A BETTER SENSE OF WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN WITH AI THAT'S WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING PEOPLE CAN ONLY CONCEIVE OF DOING"
X Link 2026-02-05T14:06Z 41.2K followers, 34K engagements
"Lets fucking go 🚀"
X Link 2026-02-05T17:03Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"The people building the models actually have a better grasp of forward demand than the pundits for me the odds that AI is a bubble declined significantly in the last [--] weeks and the odds that were actually quite under-built for the necessary levels of inference/usage went significantly up in that period basically I think AI is going to become the home screen of a for me the odds that AI is a bubble declined significantly in the last [--] weeks and the odds that were actually quite under-built for the necessary levels of inference/usage went significantly up in that period basically I think AI is"
X Link 2026-02-05T20:54Z 41.3K followers, 20.1K engagements
"Yall arent ready for what comes next. We worked with @Ginkgo to connect GPT-5 to an autonomous lab so it could propose experiments run them at scale learn from the results and decide what to try next. That closed loop brought protein production cost down by 40%. https://t.co/udKBKxnKlW We worked with @Ginkgo to connect GPT-5 to an autonomous lab so it could propose experiments run them at scale learn from the results and decide what to try next. That closed loop brought protein production cost down by 40%. https://t.co/udKBKxnKlW"
X Link 2026-02-05T22:44Z 41.3K followers, 49K engagements
"@davidecapital Im requesting we at least have one year of Sexbots before we usher in the apocalypse"
X Link 2026-02-05T22:47Z 40.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Long rambling thread (sorry). A common pushback on the AI maxi view of knowledge work disruption is that AI is rate limited by human adoption. This assumes that existing businesses will be the primary customer of AI as opposed to new AI-natives and a baby AGI is at the mercy of the incumbents for adoption. And when you bring up the notion of AI-native businesses competing with incumbents you get the pushback that these AI-natives lack the deep expertise and process knowledge accumulated by decades of employees contributing and a business operating. How I think about it: Most humans are dumb."
X Link 2026-02-06T00:36Z 41.5K followers, 12.1K engagements
"@chesir3cat @atelicinvest @claude give this guy a swirly make no mistakes"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:39Z 40.5K followers, [---] engagements
"lol lmao - many of these mgmt teams are in for a brutal awakening when the marginal buyer suddenly cares about FCF-SBC 😉 (Not a comment specific to NOW: /TEAM I have enough sw baggies hunting me as is) Happened to have dinner tonight with a guy at $NOW whose sister works at $TEAM. He said they are pretty excited about the stock declines. View internally is that business is strong and theyre happy that RSUs/options are getting struck down here. Take it FWIW Happened to have dinner tonight with a guy at $NOW whose sister works at $TEAM. He said they are pretty excited about the stock declines."
X Link 2026-02-06T05:23Z 41.2K followers, 17.4K engagements
"@T49tank Sun Eater Red Rising Licanius Will of The Many Stormlight"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:57Z 41.3K followers, [----] engagements
"@VizierPrime Thats why you need to partner and verticalize instead of rely on adoption"
X Link 2026-02-07T10:09Z 41.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Normal brained: Warsh is a hawk bad for risk assets. Sell software and crypto. Big brained: reduced liquidity forced rotation out of tech which was exacerbated by sector-specific datapoints that resulted in software imploding and those same liquidity dynamics have been pressuring BTC Mega brained: rapid AI progress seems more likely than before which is inherently negative for software terminal-value and also implies higher worker productivity and a deflationary impulse which means the fiscal debt situation is more manageable so sell debasement hedges Giga brained: the path to AGI is going to"
X Link 2026-02-07T10:39Z 41.5K followers, 40.2K engagements
"I always thought I understood why Elon believed in simulation-theory he lived a uniquely charmed life that took him through one of the most interesting trajectories a human could possibly go through. But for most people it made no sense to consider. Our lives were fairly mundane. For the first time in my life Im looking at what the next few years might look like and I think holy shit maybe"
X Link 2026-02-07T10:56Z 41.3K followers, 17.4K engagements
"@EdwinVANDERBERG 😉"
X Link 2026-02-07T10:59Z 41.3K followers, [---] engagements
"@matrix_trader_d Will be rocky but its a Q of value capture and re distro"
X Link 2026-02-07T11:07Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Agree with this. But you have to go even further on the abstraction curve. What is the marginal utility of historical data when you have a baby AGI running correlations between every datapoint available across humanities knowledge base. What can be replicated what has signal and what only had value because other people traded based on it and therefore was predictive only due to reflexivity How quickly will it take for us to have real-time monitoring of every inch of earth via LEO with the AI spitting out in real time the kind of analysis P72 used to have to collate on weekends watching"
X Link 2026-02-07T11:23Z 41.5K followers, 15.7K engagements
"@SBO8085 Its all fun and games until you realize humanoids will replicate Palm Islands in Dubai 100x and Rainmakers weather mod tech is going to scale across the planet. But path function matters 😉"
X Link 2026-02-07T11:37Z 41.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@vlslvv Agreed but thats prob five years out and in between there is inertia and confusion"
X Link 2026-02-07T11:38Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"The dems are going to run on an anti-AI platform in [----] because if they dont millions of govt employees are out of a job within five years We are about to solve bureaucracy the great scourge of modern life and I'm stoked to live in a world without it. I know it comes at a terrible cost and there will be a lot of grief. I also believe we'll find new ways to create value that aren't herding each other like cattle We are about to solve bureaucracy the great scourge of modern life and I'm stoked to live in a world without it. I know it comes at a terrible cost and there will be a lot of grief. I"
X Link 2026-02-07T12:10Z 41.5K followers, 28.1K engagements
"@tankishto Thats why we need to decouple 😉"
X Link 2026-02-07T12:11Z 41.4K followers, [---] engagements
"BTC was at $115k at the time 😔 My concern with BTC in contrast to gold is that the former is to a large degree correlated to liquidity. And one of the sharpest arrows in the American quiver is weaponizing dollar access in a decoupling. Look at the recent Argentinian bailout and how it was structured. My concern with BTC in contrast to gold is that the former is to a large degree correlated to liquidity. And one of the sharpest arrows in the American quiver is weaponizing dollar access in a decoupling. Look at the recent Argentinian bailout and how it was structured"
X Link 2026-02-07T12:23Z 41.3K followers, 13.3K engagements
"@artuskg Correct - which in part explains musks desire to move datacenters into space"
X Link 2026-02-07T12:54Z 41.2K followers, [----] engagements
"@Bunagayafrost Re 3) i decided the prob that I identify and assign the correct prob to the correct god + religion + repercussions in afterlife = low enough that the rational thing to do is life as if there is no god. Its a reverse Pascals wager"
X Link 2026-02-07T12:57Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Anthropic and OpenAI going public is an opportunity to explain to credit investors why Blue Owl and others funding datacenters are low risk. If they dont the widening of credit spreads and rotation out of the lenders is going to be incredibly harmful to future lending capacity and therefore capex roadmaps as hyperscaler balance sheets get tapped-out. They can only do that by also explaining to investors how they will successfully widen the scope of AI beyond software. That in and of itself is a catalyst for the market to realize what the next few years might look like separate and in parallel"
X Link 2026-02-07T13:08Z 41.5K followers, 15.8K engagements
"@puff_magicdraco OpenAI employees def do this. Anthropic employees are more maxi and likely believe value capture still accrues to the intelligence provider"
X Link 2026-02-07T13:47Z 41.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Admiral Paparo wakes up bleary-eyed and scrolls past this post. Checks-in on progress report for fitting Starship rockets with Rapid Dragon pallets Smirks goes back to sleep JUST IN: China has revealed plans for a futuristic warship named Luanniao an 800-foot vessel designed to deploy unmanned fighter jets and launch hypersonic missiles from space. https://t.co/Q50PLUXpqi JUST IN: China has revealed plans for a futuristic warship named Luanniao an 800-foot vessel designed to deploy unmanned fighter jets and launch hypersonic missiles from space. https://t.co/Q50PLUXpqi"
X Link 2026-02-07T15:07Z 41.4K followers, 14.6K engagements
"3-5 year ramp towards digital singularity swelling all knowledge work. Robotics solved in three years from now and takes five years from there to ramp. Wide range of distro around societal and geopol reactions to the ramp and that can accel or decel timeline. Energy scarcity and chip scarcity starts next year and goes through periods of stop-start. Adoption by industry will be volatile initially but smooth out as human decision makers give up trying to keep up with change and cede corp decision making to AI. Human agency initially very valuable but quickly becomes commoditized as AGIs are"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:16Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"@Gloeschi It aint real till Alex holling at sandboxx reports on it 😉"
X Link 2026-02-07T17:28Z 41.2K followers, [---] engagements
"Silly rabbit you thought the labs wouldnt price discriminate Revenue-share agreements for priority access coming in [--] [--] [--] Our teams have been building with a 2.5x-faster version of Claude Opus [---]. Were now making it available as an early experiment via Claude Code and our API. Our teams have been building with a 2.5x-faster version of Claude Opus [---]. Were now making it available as an early experiment via Claude Code and our API"
X Link 2026-02-07T19:38Z 41.3K followers, 16.4K engagements
"Now SaaS is dead 2.5x-faster 😉 Our teams have been building with a 2.5x-faster version of Claude Opus [---]. Were now making it available as an early experiment via Claude Code and our API. Our teams have been building with a 2.5x-faster version of Claude Opus [---]. Were now making it available as an early experiment via Claude Code and our API"
X Link 2026-02-07T20:21Z 41.4K followers, 25K engagements
"@Roth_Overlord @SBO8085 Checkout rainmaker"
X Link 2026-02-07T20:37Z 41.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@tytyburky Scaling laws suddenly stop holding for some unforeseen reason or govt turns adversarial. Sub 20% prob in my mind"
X Link 2026-02-07T22:37Z 41.3K followers, [---] engagements
"@cuantitative Its definitely a factor and something I spend a lot of time thinking about but my base case is model providers lock down APIs this year and open source falls behind until Huawei can ramp production"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:22Z 41.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@ArtKeller @Dr_Gingerballs I actually dont think that will happen because the people at these labs arent retarded and will preemptively adjust narrative and provide proof points accordingly to de-risk"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:24Z 41.3K followers, [---] engagements
"If a nuke is heading for NYC how do you trade your portfolio As if the bomb will fail to go off. Instead youll price-in the fact that someone was crazy enough to launch the nuke (rational; fact) but assume that they fucked up the wiring (irrational; speculative) because if the nuke hits youre dead anyways. So youll probably short Chinese ADRs max long dollar-debasement and defense stocks on the assumption of a protracted non-nuclear war and then sit back and sip a scotch. AI coding is the missile heading for New York AGI is the nuke 🫡 @TMTLongShort You are right. I don't see this as"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:38Z 41.5K followers, 48K engagements
"@Dr_Gingerballs @ArtKeller So you are convinced scaling laws wont hold. Im convinced they will. Thats what makes a market"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:55Z 41.3K followers, [---] engagements
"As the conversation shifts from knowledge-work towards the rest of the economy a common mental-crutch that is going to be bandied around is the painfully slow rollout of Waymo despite the tech being readyyears earlier. This is a trap. It is correct to expect that some portion of the economy will require a very slow and painful integration phase with robotics. But you have to decompose what a robotaxi does and how analogous is that to most other areas of the real economy. Specifically: a robotaxis job is to get you from point A to B. .There is only one of you as the passenger you arent"
X Link 2026-02-08T03:15Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@HatfieldCapital We still decoupling fam 😘"
X Link 2026-02-08T05:17Z 41.3K followers, [----] engagements
"What happens when the slop stops being sloppish 🤔 they made new jackie chan movie using seedance [---] . ai has gone crazy https://t.co/yjzEqJxjFp they made new jackie chan movie using seedance [---] . ai has gone crazy https://t.co/yjzEqJxjFp"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:02Z 41.5K followers, 15.9K engagements
"Obviously 🫡 https://t.co/9PZIM3eY0x https://t.co/9PZIM3eY0x"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:35Z 41.5K followers, 46K engagements
"@JZ281C Correct. And we are going to fuck those countries long and hard"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:43Z 41.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Was gonna say Architect Capital likely making the biggest capital allocation mistake in a generation. but its like 5x FCF so I guess its fine Seedance [---] is insane https://t.co/oBqAm3zsBZ Seedance [---] is insane https://t.co/oBqAm3zsBZ"
X Link 2026-02-08T16:57Z 41.5K followers, 42.4K engagements
"The pieces are taking shape on the board. Xi has been oddly patient. An extraordinary election in Japan given that Takaichi may be on track even to secure a greater majority than the late Shinzo Abe Japan is now taking a very different direction under revitalised conservative rule shedding shibboleths of a previous generation of conservatives https://t.co/EtGg33r30l An extraordinary election in Japan given that Takaichi may be on track even to secure a greater majority than the late Shinzo Abe Japan is now taking a very different direction under revitalised conservative rule shedding"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:33Z 41.5K followers, 101.7K engagements
"@Richard15322800 @Dr_Gingerballs @ArtKeller Possible ELO not the right parallel then I mean ilya and Hinton did more for humanity than 10k people with 1SD lower IQ"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:45Z 41.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@Dr_Gingerballs @Richard15322800 @ArtKeller No days off ginger 😤"
X Link 2026-02-08T19:49Z 41.4K followers, [--] engagements
"The default mode of interaction for most consumers is going to be a video avatar with a consistent face and voice that they can text FaceTime slack call or motion at to request a task done a project built or information tutored. All the capabilities you see being developed will be abstracted away behind this personal avatar. You can have Adriana Lima explain to you physics Yoda give you life advice or Brad Pitt can teach you French. You will be able to choose between a consistent style attitude aesthetic and accent. People will have psychosis. There will be AI-addiction hotlines. People will"
X Link 2026-02-08T20:15Z 41.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Beachfronts gold guns and beans 😉 HAMPTONS HOME PRICES HIT RECORD AS SUMMER RENTALS FILL FAST Hamptons home prices hit a record in the fourth quarter driven by Wall Street bonuses and tech wealth according to Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. The median sale price jumped 34% to $2.34 million while the https://t.co/Q5uSze26GY HAMPTONS HOME PRICES HIT RECORD AS SUMMER RENTALS FILL FAST Hamptons home prices hit a record in the fourth quarter driven by Wall Street bonuses and tech wealth according to Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. The median sale price jumped 34% to $2.34 million while the"
X Link 2026-02-09T18:16Z 41.5K followers, 16.5K engagements
"@TQuestMind Dont think I agree"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:00Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@jliemandt The legend himself 🙌"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:45Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@CECL_Allowance When tarrifs on China are below 20%"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:46Z 41.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@TheAutumnalFire Latinas fix this"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:08Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Bloodbath is coming. Budgets need to to be freed up to simultaneously pay for GPUs/AI-tools while also showing investors rapid FCF-SBC expansion. The first use-case of AI is the tools that allow CFOs to map productivity and redundancy of every employee. This in-turn drives the seat-count collapse and SaaS is dead narratives forcing CFOs to be even more aggressive. Meanwhile every CEO will race to performatively lean into Claude Coding on weekends in the hopes that he convinces his board he is a war-time CEO even tho he has spent the last decade skiing in Aspen from Thursday - Sunday and hasnt"
X Link 2026-02-10T09:06Z 41.7K followers, 99.4K engagements
"Listen i jerked off to Ayn Rand as a kid. I hate the moral hazard of UBI as much as anyone. But there is zero debate it will be needed. The debate should be between if its supply side (universal basic services) or demand side (high income + compute stipend). Now what Bernie and his Luddite ilk are going to quickly find out is that unlike politicians who spend most of the time playing retarded status games the average Joe cares a lot more if their family is taken care of financially and if everything is free and he can play COD and drink a beer all day that isnt as scary as the decels make it"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:10Z 41.7K followers, 11.5K engagements
"Anthropic and OAI are coming for cloud infra and cybersecurity too. But theyll take their time. You dont go to war with companies that enable you until you are confident doing so wont hamper your near-term productivity. No one is safe. But path function matters and pays my rent"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:43Z 41.7K followers, 10.9K engagements
"@ewinsberg I am constrained by character count. Voicing every permutation is impractical"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:24Z 41.7K followers, [--] engagements
"@FilterMacro When I say Blackwell Im referring to the Gen of chips that are ramping now and includes TPU/Groq/Cerebrus/AMD etc as well. The Chinese managed to compete because they were able to access weights not because compute doesnt matter"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:10Z 41.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@aryanjn9 Yup"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:24Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@MetacriticCap Just wait till Blackwell ramps 😉"
X Link 2026-02-14T02:40Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Its been three weeks since I first published Economic Blitzkrieg so I figured its worth doing a quick overview of where we are and where I think we are headed: First to summarize: The thesis was Trump didnt really care that much about tariffs. He cares about fortifying US hegemony by cutting out China. But to be more precise Im going to fully outline what he cares about and then what hes trying to do about each. Top of the list are his primary issues that needed to be addressed quickly & forcefully: A) Chinas growing industrial technological and militaristic strength relative to the US B) A"
X Link 2025-04-28T22:05Z 41.5K followers, 268.5K engagements
"My concern with BTC in contrast to gold is that the former is to a large degree correlated to liquidity. And one of the sharpest arrows in the American quiver is weaponizing dollar access in a decoupling. Look at the recent Argentinian bailout and how it was structured. So reducing global liquidity temporarily when shit hits the fan may serve policy makers interest even as domestic liquidity is boosted via direct transfer payments and industry-level subsidies. That said I still anticipate a broad-based tsunami of stimulus into midterms late next year. So I hold BTC but am mentally bracing"
X Link 2025-10-12T14:07Z 41.5K followers, 68.6K engagements
"I want to be clear. I fully anticipate there will be plenty of countries that side with China. But that doesnt matter. We lose them and they lose access to the West as they know it. At some point in the future when their citizens realize how catastrophic being in a world dominated by China is they might come crawling back. Or maybe they decide a $5k BYD is worth having a social credit score. Idk. Frankly idgaf. Because those allies who choose (read bullied) to enter our new system will have the opportunity of the century to replace China as the primary exporter to the U.S. consumer with"
X Link 2025-10-25T01:21Z 41.5K followers, 21.2K engagements
"I dont think enough affluent New Yorkers have bothered looking at the NY Comptroller report. There are very material holes in the state budget that were filled by federal funding to offset heavy spend on migrants as part of NYCs sanctuary city initiative as well as general fiscal neglect. Trumps incentive is to allow Mamdani to take over and then ensure his tenure is a flaming dumpster fire by normalizing Federal funds back to pre-COVID baselines. This is a material step down vs the assumptions currently being made by the State. In other words the tactic will be to squeeze state finances and"
X Link 2025-10-27T19:34Z 41.5K followers, 585.7K engagements
"The more Yann LeCun interviews I listen to the more Im convinced the reason he was pushed out by Zuck was because Yann clearly despises the notion of the U.S. maintaining control over leading-edge AI and for all his faults Zuck is actually a patriot. All the labs are going to become increasingly closed source and I think that accelerates this year. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017082984365527163 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017082984365527163"
X Link 2026-01-30T03:50Z 41.5K followers, 43K engagements
"Something to keep in mind on the eve of Anthropics new model"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:48Z 41.5K followers, 34.5K engagements
"closer to $2T now"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:18Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"You have to be a systems level thinker. Zoom in and zoom out. What are the LOs thinking How many boomer PMs knew what a Claude was a month ago How many have even thought about a world in ten years where software moats are gone How about in five CFOs are going to aggressively fire people. They are going to push their remaining engineers to aggressively use AI tools. They will aggressively acquire AI native startups. They will aggressively ramp their compute budgets and blow up near term gross margins. At a system level that re-enforces the narrative even tho every cfo is acting rationally. The"
X Link 2026-02-05T10:59Z 41.6K followers, 75.3K engagements
"@721WVT Flip side is all these services are what we spend money on daily. If the rent implodes the consumer captures 90% of the savings via price deflation. The problem is that doesnt help if youre unemployed. Universal high income is coming"
X Link 2026-02-05T14:32Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"But zoom out. That PM is just an input within a larger process which is overlayed with risk constraints and packaged for LPs to allocate capital to. That packages ultimate objective is to spit out superior returns downstream of the data an analyst ingests. Now zoom back down. Even before we talk about the PM bottleneck we need to talk about the analysts workflow. This AI analyst has never pitched a PM. Has never built a DCF. Never read a buyside memo or sellside note. So what do you do You breakdown the input bottleneck into underlying parts. You start with the premise that every prior"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:51Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@matrix_trader_d Race into not solve immediately"
X Link 2026-02-07T11:10Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"I talk a lot about the bull case re AI because I am fundamentally a maxi and recognize that Street has failed to frame the abstractions properly mostly due to intellectual shortcomings around non-linearity. Let me play the bear for a second. Normally mgmt is incentivized to take rational risks around ROIC and when the marginal capex doesnt pencil you return it to shareholders. But what is different this time is the variance of return has gone up dramatically as you start making preemptive bets on infra well ahead of demand. We havent reached this point yet. The math still pencils even if"
X Link 2026-02-07T22:20Z 41.6K followers, 77.9K engagements
"Accelerando anon https://t.co/4F8Bx1Z2bn https://t.co/4F8Bx1Z2bn"
X Link 2026-02-08T15:40Z 41.6K followers, 18.1K engagements
"@taobanker @evrgn11112231 @Dr_Gingerballs @silenttrader84 Same now - just switched to vy but havent used unless backlogged"
X Link 2026-02-09T14:07Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"Only Nixon could go to China. Only Warsh can cut rates preemptively into midterms on an AI-driven productivity deflation and unemployment impulse 😉"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:45Z 41.6K followers, 14.6K engagements
"GS MS JPM and Citadel should partner to open multiple Alpha schools in NYC where only parents who work at participating corps can enroll their kids. 99% of the utility of the top tier private schools is the filtering mechanism they provide and the signaling it achieves later in a kids education. This can just as effectively be accomplished by filtering parents with very light curtailment for disruptive kids. Would cost 70% less and act as an employee retention tool too. This is one of the big reasons why you still see [--] year old banking MDs work late nights and weekends despite making"
X Link 2026-02-10T00:13Z 41.5K followers, 173.2K engagements
"Everyone talks about the network affects of the SF tech ecosystem. Nobody talks about how easily you can get one-shotted the first time you date a Latina who recently immigrated from Brazil or Colombia. Wow. Zuck buying $150m home in Florida. Companies have a tendency to be near the CEO. Even part of the time. Could $META move some peeps to FL Employee base would love the state income tax rate. Gives everyone an immediate raise. https://t.co/4fj5aq3DUJ Wow. Zuck buying $150m home in Florida. Companies have a tendency to be near the CEO. Even part of the time. Could $META move some peeps to FL"
X Link 2026-02-10T01:34Z 41.5K followers, 57.5K engagements
"a16z consistently putting out quality content https://youtu.be/rSohMpT24SIsi=2TqELbHbmPuGO0om https://youtu.be/rSohMpT24SIsi=2TqELbHbmPuGO0om"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:15Z 41.5K followers, 15.7K engagements
"Never a good idea to bet against Balaji. But dont underestimate reflexivity in an age where information dispersement is radically higher than it ever was in the limited sample set that history provides. Hegemons dont rollover without a fight. The republic first became an empire. Many parallels between late Rome and America. Rome was an enormous egalitarian capitalist empire. Starting from an organic tribe it expanded to conquer huge swaths of territory and assimilate countless foreign tribes under its system of laws. Then it gradually lost the Many parallels between late Rome and America."
X Link 2026-02-10T16:23Z 41.5K followers, 28.9K engagements
"IRS: you Venmod your side chick so she can get her nails done you owe us $2.89. Pay up bitch BLS: On jobs -- We are expecting about 666k downward revisions to March [----] payrolls level as part of the annual benchmarking. After all that's done (including birth and death model update in the post benchmark period) we expect Dec [----] to see a downward revision near [--] million. https://t.co/p3NPQID6Dz On jobs -- We are expecting about 666k downward revisions to March [----] payrolls level as part of the annual benchmarking. After all that's done (including birth and death model update in the post"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:19Z 41.5K followers, 15.1K engagements
"@evrgn11112231 Cathie grave dances on negative alpha guys Claude Capital grave dances on Cathie We are Bob (singularity) Jeremy Grantham is resurrected from cryofreeze to usher in the heath death of the universe"
X Link 2026-02-10T19:35Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@matt_slotnick A16Z YouTube channel"
X Link 2026-02-10T20:45Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"LLMs accelerates integration with other unhobbling mechanisms like integrating world models by providing scaffolding - looking at the limitations of the existing architecture is somewhat misleading. Weve reached the point where the researchers can rely on the models to execute code for new research ideas flawlessly which means the probabilities of breaking through bottlenecks has gone up not down. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021335787422298134 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021335787422298134"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:29Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"We got sw cos buying startups because their logo looks like Claudes We signed a definitive agreement to acquire Cimulate a leader in AI-powered product discovery. Upon close well integrate their context engine with Agentforce Commerce to help retailers move beyond keyword search to intuitive intent-driven discovery. https://t.co/9yh29G5Ux3 We signed a definitive agreement to acquire Cimulate a leader in AI-powered product discovery. Upon close well integrate their context engine with Agentforce Commerce to help retailers move beyond keyword search to intuitive intent-driven discovery."
X Link 2026-02-10T21:38Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@MaulikAtanu Itll ramp faster than you think even if they dont crack NA EUV"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:04Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@JTDaly Nobody knows shit. Reflexivity and narrative matter long before revenue decels"
X Link 2026-02-11T03:02Z 41.5K followers, [--] engagements
"@sprk_77 Cursor for trades gonna get hella funding"
X Link 2026-02-11T03:46Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@luvtiggies @sprk_77 Use your imagination Claude code lets you develop AR glasses which lets you more efficiently do trades which lets you build more datacenters to build more Claude code 😉"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:29Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"I have a retarded cousin. Strong dude. Cant build anything for shit. Youre telling me China can make me lots more retarded cousins. Im telling you Id rather one guy who knows what hes doing. Oh and turns out that guy can build more guys fairly quickly. Intelligence is the constraint. Always was always will be"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:36Z 41.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Some of you called me schizo for saying this lol My friends at @AnthropicAI literally sit around a table and "pick [--] to [--] industries they can disrupt every week" and do whatever the best companies do but better. My friends at @AnthropicAI literally sit around a table and "pick [--] to [--] industries they can disrupt every week" and do whatever the best companies do but better"
X Link 2026-02-11T13:07Z 41.5K followers, 18.9K engagements
"@Utter_Savagery Debt jubilees are coming if we get deflation. Obviously"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:27Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@HighBetaTrader Anything by dwarkesh. A16z channel Matt Turk latent spaces moonshots"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:09Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@jaginger 10x that"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:25Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@VaccineMachine Flock Safety x 100"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:18Z 41.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@AmirF15336 @GavinSBaker Feasibility constraints and timing of space datacenters. Ways Elon can get around ASML for EUV. Odds China cracked EUV. AI impact on NVDA CUDA moat. Groq acq implications. SpaceX + TSLA merger. Open vs closed source diverging or converge with Blackwell could keep going 😂"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:41Z 41.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@LeroyHite_ @JTDaly Half way through. He still has extreme TDS. Not as interesting so far vs prior interviews"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:26Z 41.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Still gonna take boomer PMs another year before they try it Cowork is now available on Windows. Were bringing full feature parity with MacOS: file access multi-step task execution plugins and MCP connectors. https://t.co/329DqJz5q5 Cowork is now available on Windows. Were bringing full feature parity with MacOS: file access multi-step task execution plugins and MCP connectors. https://t.co/329DqJz5q5"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:39Z 41.7K followers, 120.3K engagements
"Read more sci-fi. Scifi world building has to grapple with change in societal structure and reflexivity. You read enough of it and your mental frame expands because your sample size of observed worlds increases from one to many Read more 🫡"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:01Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Soon the bull case on SaaS 😉 Twitter pre-Elon had [----] employees Now it has [--] So they downsized by 250x while getting more traffic and features built than ever I absolutely love this leanness so healthy Twitter pre-Elon had [----] employees Now it has [--] So they downsized by 250x while getting more traffic and features built than ever I absolutely love this leanness so healthy"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:51Z 41.7K followers, 18.2K engagements
"This is my Super Bowl Last time Dario was on it was one of my favorite episodes watching this now. Dario: 'I will tell you though what the most surprising thing has been. The most surprising thing has been the lack of public recognition of how close we are to the end of the exponential. To me it Last time Dario was on it was one of my favorite episodes watching this now. Dario: 'I will tell you though what the most surprising thing has been. The most surprising thing has been the lack of public recognition of how close we are to the end of the exponential. To me it"
X Link 2026-02-13T18:11Z 41.7K followers, 11.4K engagements
"If we had more time youd see a heavy push towards unionization. We dont and so we wont"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:17Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@Anointed_Ape Correct. But if the ramp had been slow theyd have attempted to prevent scaling via collective bargaining. Think port workers and automation"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:29Z 41.7K followers, [---] engagements
"If you work on the sellside you should consider putting together the following report: A) breakdown each sub-sector of services and knowledge work globally by employee count median and aggregate salary margins exposure to U.S. and China B) breakdown for each the median employees job tenure worker satisfaction and turnover cost to train typical education required for entry C) breakdown for each the % of time spent on specific tasks ranked by [--] - [--] based on complexity and time spent in a given workday D) continuous vs discrete nature of the job typical task duration and how swappable employees"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:00Z 41.7K followers, 13.7K engagements
"Was through PLTR - retarded article fun headline 😉"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:19Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Off by a factor of 10x Exclusive: Anduril is in talks with investors to raise billions more in funding at a valuation of roughly $60 billion. Read more from @Katie_Roof @PauValida and @CoryWeinberg 👇 https://t.co/dRe5cqCRmG Exclusive: Anduril is in talks with investors to raise billions more in funding at a valuation of roughly $60 billion. Read more from @Katie_Roof @PauValida and @CoryWeinberg 👇 https://t.co/dRe5cqCRmG"
X Link 2026-02-14T02:46Z 41.7K followers, 61.9K engagements
"In the coming days there will be a heavily-pushed narrative that because of how deep Chinas skilled manufacturing pool is the cost of decoupling is too great. This is false. Not because there is a readily available pool of similarly skilled talent ready to work elsewhere. There isnt. Its because when you fast forward two to three years from now when companies like Figure and Anduril are are attempting to ramp production and compete with Unitree and DJI if there isnt a readily available pool of manufacturing talent in the West then the world will default to ramping robotics production in"
X Link 2025-04-12T04:14Z 41.7K followers, 133.5K engagements
"Repeat after me: intelligence solves every bottleneck. Intelligence. Solves. Every. Bottleneck. If you dont believe this you are simply insufficiently intelligent. If you had more intelligence youd be able to imagine how a hypothetical increase in intelligence would solve your hypothetical bottleneck 😉 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019186356514181125 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019186356514181125"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:08Z 41.7K followers, 27.3K engagements
"Somewhere in the HQ of every AI lab there is a giant whiteboard. It breaks down every pool of economic rent extracted by the services economy based on market cap revenue and margins. It ranks these pools based on proximity to the existing research roadmap towards AGI and the ratio of intelligence to network effects and dependence on non-digital business process that each of these pools of economic rent have. It ranks them on regulatory factors. It ranks them on cost and tolerance of being wrong. And every single day the labs will systemically work towards destroying each of these pools. One"
X Link 2026-02-05T14:22Z 41.7K followers, 72.2K engagements
"Whenever someone tells me markets are efficient everyone understands the bet the hyperscalers are making I pull up this interview with Lukasz and check how many views it has. The vast majority of capital in this country is run by boomers who rely on a team of overworked millennial analysts who all leave work at 6pm and completely shut off their brain. Its a peaceful lush existence. They are driven competent and fine-tuned. They are polished. They have families and hobbies. They dont read sci-fi. They arent autistic or obsessive like most of the people on here. They still think musk is a fraud"
X Link 2026-02-06T01:51Z 41.7K followers, 227.5K engagements
"The problem is the people running hyperscalers are pussies and wont be willing to deal with the negative optics of firing people while their businesses are accelerating directly due to AI. META/AMZN Definitely. GOOG/MSFT Pussies. People forget that the hyperscalers do like $1.5t of revenue at 65% average gross margins and are adding $150-200b of revenue a year. The incremental GP dollars support a lot of GPUs and the decremetal opex dollars support a lot of GPUs. Yes big numbers. Welcome to these People forget that the hyperscalers do like $1.5t of revenue at 65% average gross margins and are"
X Link 2026-02-06T06:22Z 41.7K followers, 20.2K engagements
"Recursive loops. Ive spent a lot of time lately wondering how quickly a small team from Anthropic can replicate Fei Feis research of world models if they were equipped with Claude [--] + 5GW of compute + a couple of her former employees. What the LLMs arent enough people miss is that ofc they arent. But they allow you to construct the scaffolding far more quickly and effectively. Probabilistic and deterministic. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020571814595014675 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020571814595014675"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:53Z 41.7K followers, 10.7K engagements
"Macro prognosticators have not given enough thought to what it means for rates and consumer sentiment if sometime in the next [--] months we see 1m+ people get fired in the tech & consulting sector virtually overnight just as rideshare is slowing down hiring due robotaxi ramp and cant pick up any labor slack AI capex requires at least a $1T of revenue just on current spend rate to make the math pencil. Assuming $100k avg salary per mid-office knowledge worker every 1m employees fired saves you $100b of opex. We might get GDP expansion and output increase as well but to assume a smooth ramp"
X Link 2026-02-10T10:54Z 41.7K followers, 17.4K engagements
"This is by far my most important tweet. If china scales intelligent robots before us its over. They can use the robots to secure the commodities (with force) and build more fabs. It is an insurmountable first mover advantage. We muse decouple the West before then. You dont want to see what the CCP is capable of when it has a monopoly on global violence and intelligence. In the coming days there will be a heavily-pushed narrative that because of how deep Chinas skilled manufacturing pool is the cost of decoupling is too great. This is false. Not because there is a readily available pool of"
X Link 2026-02-10T11:06Z 41.7K followers, 47.1K engagements
"As Americans when you see advances in AI you immediately extrapolate to the rest of the American population asking who will use this who will be hurt by this but its always with the frame that anyone who wants to participate will be able to. That is wrong. We are going to weaponize the shit out of access. If Trump doesnt like your prime minister you are going to be stuck on last gen open source running on Huawei GPUs. And they are going to force AI labs to lock down APIs to prevent open source distillations at the barrel of a gun. You have to start thinking of the world as those who have and"
X Link 2026-02-11T03:44Z 41.7K followers, 31.5K engagements
"JUST IN - U.S. military engaged high-energy lasers to shoot down what appeared to be foreign drones near the southern border. The flying material turned out to be a party balloon. One balloon was shot down CBS JUST IN - U.S. military engaged high-energy lasers to shoot down what appeared to be foreign drones near the southern border. The flying material turned out to be a party balloon. One balloon was shot down CBS"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:33Z 41.7K followers, 11.4K engagements
"If youre not having fun right now as a tech investor you are probably on tilt and should take risk down for a month or two at a minimum and use the time to understand the maxi view of the world. This is not the time to be doubling down on what you think you know"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:08Z 41.7K followers, 16.2K engagements
"Salesforce invests in Anthropic colorized X turned into a blogging platform and I caved. In my defense @AnthropicAI 's Series G and crossing $14B in run-rate revenue felt worth more than [---] characters so it's for a good cause 😎 A lot of people dont know this but @SalesforceVC has been an investor in Anthropic X turned into a blogging platform and I caved. In my defense @AnthropicAI 's Series G and crossing $14B in run-rate revenue felt worth more than [---] characters so it's for a good cause 😎 A lot of people dont know this but @SalesforceVC has been an investor in Anthropic"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:23Z 41.7K followers, 19.3K engagements
"@T3_RM Dont mistake inference from training"
X Link 2026-02-13T11:03Z 41.7K followers, [---] engagements
"There are at least 1k+ boomer PMs who were sent Dwarkesh podcast links consistently over the last two years and every single one went unopened. Today will be different. Today they will finally open the podcast link. They can no longer avoid reality just because Burry and Chanos told them its ok to. You have to understand the Boomer PM if you plan to trade against them. Markets arent efficient. The @DarioAmodei interview. 0:00:00 - What exactly are we scaling 0:12:36 - Is diffusion cope 0:29:42 - Is continual learning necessary 0:46:20 - If AGI is imminent why not buy more compute 0:58:49 -"
X Link 2026-02-13T18:26Z 41.7K followers, 90.8K engagements
"Dario said RL scaling is loglinearbearish No retard incremental IQ is exponentially more valuable. Oppenheimer and Teller were worth ten million Soviet soldiers. Druckenmiller is worth more than the entirety of sellside and most of buyside research. Ilya is worth more than the combined workforce at Docusign. If you cant appreciate that you probably havent interacted with truly high IQ people before. If we have to take apart the moon to build a giga-cluster of compute so be it. As long as scaling holds"
X Link 2026-02-13T18:37Z 41.7K followers, 33.4K engagements
"Whenever Dario says a trillion in revenue I want you to replace it with roughly 15m unemployed voters in your head. Then assume every democrat politician will have watched this interview before midterms. And ask yourself what is their likely next step. Understand systems. Dario does. Thats why he tries to frame it as revenue because his comms person is non-autistic enough to understand his framing the last two times he was on Dwarkesh were a liability"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:41Z 41.7K followers, 35.1K engagements
"@rickmayo_ @Anointed_Ape Theyre going public. But govt has an implicit stake and thats sufficient if youre American"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:44Z 41.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@Midnight_Captl Oh ofc. Thats why I said 15m not 20m"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:18Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"The left will attack Dario over jobs. The right will attack Dario over access for non-Americans before the U.S. can secure commodity supply chains for robotics"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:26Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"As you ponder the marginal utility of intelligence there are some important framings that you can play with. Why is Peter Thiel a billionaire and Terrence Tao is not Why is the median IQ of a Fortune [---] CEO not [---] Why are there roughly 2m males in the world with an IQ of over [---] and yet we have far fewer important companies or technological breakthroughs over the last few decades. Why are high IQ people risk adverse Why arent there many high IQ artists What has prevented society from funneling intelligence into invention until now and how might that change What are the organizational"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:38Z 41.7K followers, 38.8K engagements
"You should kickstart a bounty program. Let a million @nickshirleyy get at it. Offer Grok access/compute stipends for those who show initial success identifying fraud. Incentivize people to build dashboards start a leaderboard easy API plugs with other data sources to cross tabulate relevant census data for example let people extrapolate likely illegals usage patterns in blue vs red states and based on hospital filings extrapolate taxpayer costs as % of systems revenue etc"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:52Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"New TAM unlocked 😂"
X Link 2026-02-13T23:16Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Dario is the most maxi-pilled and intelligent of the major lab heads. He therefore understands whats at-stake in a visceral way that those that are less certain in the technologies trajectory do not. From day one he was talking about nation-state espionage and building in-house security precautions. Unfortunately this works in reverse too. As Xi and the non-maxi boomers around him realize how valuable AI is going to be the amount of effort China puts into closing the gap is going to 10x. DeepSeek was luck Seedance was focus MiniMax was skill. Now that Xi knows what AI might be able to do the"
X Link 2026-02-14T01:25Z 41.7K followers, 65.4K engagements
"Inject this straight into my veins WE IN AMERICA HAVE NO INTEREST IN BEING POLITE AND ORDERLY CARETAKERS OF THE WESTS MANAGED DECLINE https://t.co/b0A1n8FANs WE IN AMERICA HAVE NO INTEREST IN BEING POLITE AND ORDERLY CARETAKERS OF THE WESTS MANAGED DECLINE https://t.co/b0A1n8FANs"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:35Z 41.7K followers, 139K engagements
"Three objectives three time frames: A) short-term 6mo to 1yr - control yield curve bring fiscal situation under control B) near-term 1yr to 2yr- decouple supply chains from China ensure resiliency of military to provide credible deterrence against a TW invasion. This can include friendshoring only if the underpinning supply is in fact located in the allys boarders. A china skin i.e. Vietnam where the bulk of value-add is imported is not acceptable because that can still be weaponized by Xi. C) medium-term 3yr to 5yr resuscitate domestic manufacturing have sufficient infrastructure to maintain"
X Link 2025-04-04T21:17Z 41.6K followers, 262.8K engagements
"You should be paying more attention to whats about to happen in Venezuela"
X Link 2025-08-28T11:10Z 41.6K followers, 670K engagements
"Bridge is the most under-rated person in the admin. His book Strategy of Denial is a must-read re China. The architect of US defense strategy Elbridge Colby published his playbook years before taking office. Most haven't read it. In my report I break down his framework show its influence on the NSS & why the "spheres of influence" theory gets it wrong. https://t.co/3tyHU5Cpg3 The architect of US defense strategy Elbridge Colby published his playbook years before taking office. Most haven't read it. In my report I break down his framework show its influence on the NSS & why the "spheres of"
X Link 2026-01-09T00:39Z 41.6K followers, 198.5K engagements
"As a maxi one of my major concerns is that the quality of AI-produced VR content is going to get so good so quickly that large portions of society are going to opt-out of participating in the ramp of real-life infra we need to make robotics-driven abundance a reality. There is a timing mismatch and even a couple year lag is sufficient to see large swathes of the pop just not care if the real-world gets better when they no longer are participating in it. Sounds crazy and I get accused of dropping acid before I post but just consider how much further you can push the envelope in the digital"
X Link 2026-02-04T20:38Z 41.6K followers, 11.6K engagements
"@BenniKim More intelligence. Smarter robots. Figure out how to mine the ocean floors and asteroids 😉"
X Link 2026-02-05T11:25Z 41.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@nic_carter Society is reflexive - tiger moms will be pushing their kids into BCI and weapons-grade nootropics within a decade. That plus things like alpha school"
X Link 2026-02-06T22:21Z 41.6K followers, [----] engagements
"AI labs are going to race into biotech accounting consulting and law because they understand when software as a sector deflates -90% overnight the ROI on $3T in cumulative spend doesnt pencil and they better be ready with an answer to how they will circumvent the human bottlenecks. Software took three years to destroy. Other sectors will take significantly less time given the increased compute and coding capacity internally. The appetite is in the eating. there is no reason to expect capital owners to come out of this chixculub looking event mostly intact. many knowledge and technical moats"
X Link 2026-02-07T09:28Z 41.6K followers, 47.5K engagements
"If you are an early Anthropic employee and are maxi af and AGI-pilled and have been paid $1m+ cash comp annually on top of $50m+ in now liquid stock. Do you sell into the IPO because you believe money will be worthless in a decade or do you not sell at all because you think maintaining a stake is the only way to avoid the permanent underclass 🤔 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020131230864347314 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020131230864347314"
X Link 2026-02-07T13:43Z 41.6K followers, 97.6K engagements
"Remember when people were extrapolating from GPT5 Pepperidge Farm remembers Most of you werent around or paying attention during the ramp phase of GOOG and then META. When a new hyperscaler is entering the ramp phase of their product roadmap and are firing on all cylinders the cadence of new releases and unintuitive leaps looks entirely different vs Most of you werent around or paying attention during the ramp phase of GOOG and then META. When a new hyperscaler is entering the ramp phase of their product roadmap and are firing on all cylinders the cadence of new releases and unintuitive leaps"
X Link 2026-02-10T22:44Z 41.6K followers, 13.3K engagements
"@MattJoass Sharing links takes a lot more effort :("
X Link 2026-02-13T11:07Z 41.6K followers, [--] engagements
"@MattJoass Presumably you can ask Claude/ Gemini to construct playlist based on screenshots"
X Link 2026-02-13T11:08Z 41.6K followers, [--] engagements
"@KevinRomeis @frankdegods The narrative will be I am curing cancer why do you hate sick grandmas"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:11Z 41.6K followers, [--] engagements
"Trumps tolerance for market pain is a lot higher than you think. Because there is a plan. It might not be a good plan. But it is a complex plan that anticipated a crash. Not because they want a crash. Not because they are dumb enough to think equities down -50% is good for the yield curve. Because the only way to coerce a full global decoupling from China is to play max hardball and move quickly. Because the first counter-attack was always going to be financial - because China correctly understands the West is over-financialized - and most people in Washington know China thinks that because"
X Link 2025-04-09T12:20Z 41.6K followers, 308.7K engagements
"Step 1) 100% tariffs on all Canadian imports until Carney shuts out China Step 2) Let Carney dig in with rhetoric that Canada wont be bullied Step 3) Raise tariffs to 300% and use emergency measures to replace energy imports using nat gas upgrading refineries to handle lighter shale drawing from SPR increase MX imports lift VZ sanctions Step 4) Wait a few months ignore Carney Step 5) Wait for Alberta to get really angry and start talking about secession Step 6) Offer to oversee referendum Step 7) Wait for polling data to show Alberta is likely to vote for secession Step 8) Ultimatum to Carney"
X Link 2025-04-29T03:54Z 41.6K followers, 281.5K engagements
"Next up on the agenda is a buyout of the cartels in Mexico. You cant invest in Mexico without predictability and you dont have predictability if investors are worried of a cartel resurgence when Trump is gone. But cartels can inflict a lot of causalities if they have no off ramp. So you do the following: A) blackmail Claudia using the CIA threatening to leak years of evidence that she and her cabinet are all bought by the cartels ✅ B) reach out to the higher ups at each major faction offering a one-time opportunity to move their illicit gains to miami and a pardon in exchange for providing"
X Link 2026-01-03T18:25Z 41.6K followers, 71.3K engagements
"@quantLR @hamptonism Oh for sure. Sucks balls rn"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:47Z 41.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Two days old under 3k views Whenever someone tells me markets are efficient everyone understands the bet the hyperscalers are making I pull up this interview with Lukasz and check how many views it has. The vast majority of capital in this country is run by boomers who rely on a team of overworked https://t.co/87i6ByUprn Whenever someone tells me markets are efficient everyone understands the bet the hyperscalers are making I pull up this interview with Lukasz and check how many views it has. The vast majority of capital in this country is run by boomers who rely on a team of overworked"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:48Z 41.6K followers, 167.6K engagements
"If AI works why will we even need money Because path function matters. We need to build the robots to start the abundance flywheel. At least the first million robots. And if we deprecate money too quickly well have everyone sitting at home gooning to GPT6 instead of contributing to the infra ramp. So comp for effort goes up but money still retains value for the next five years. After that economic singularity or paperclips. Idk 🤷♂"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:00Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"If Taiwan got nuked tonight it wouldnt prevent AGI. We have sufficient compute install base in the U.S. to run research if we are willing to deprecate inference. If China went for Taiwan right now the U.S. govt would gear the economy in a war time footing and Hegseth will not think twice about directing the slop cat video factories from being solely focused on achieving a model smart enough to design anti-hypersonics. Only thing stopping this train are scaling laws not holding and robotics going unsolved for another five years instead of my base case of two. That buys you time to get to a dem"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:19Z 41.7K followers, 25K engagements
"@quantLR @hamptonism Ive been in the beta for almost a year now 🫡"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:24Z 41.6K followers, [---] engagements
"@sprk_77 Scaffolding and architecture matters which requires research and large training runs which requires compute"
X Link 2026-02-13T13:07Z 41.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Ill spell it out explicitly one last time. Everyone thinks Trump wants balanced trade. He does not. He wants to force allies to stop trading with China. Completely. Zero inbound supply. Because its not just because of American jobs. Its a proactive move to slow down Chinas industrial rise. Everything is downstream of this. Reserve currency status. The ability to address fiscal debt. Its a crazy risk because China has a vote. Its a crazy risk because you are forcing Europe to commit seppeku because they have very little leverage or say in the matter. Its a crazy risk because Xi might bomb the"
X Link 2025-04-08T06:20Z 41.7K followers, 2M engagements
"We are in the piss off the Canadians phase which will quickly lead to the Canadians double-down leaning-into China phase which will be ultimately followed by the Trump will crush the Canadian economy very publicly like a bug phase serving as a warning for anyone contemplating continued transshipment transgressions once they are enforced https://t.co/oTPthgYXgS https://t.co/oTPthgYXgS"
X Link 2026-02-09T23:51Z 41.7K followers, 90.6K engagements
"I think about this a lot not enough people are emotionally prepared for if its not a bubble not enough people are emotionally prepared for if its not a bubble"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:35Z 41.6K followers, 60.4K engagements
"Read this. Do this. https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg"
X Link 2026-02-11T03:30Z 41.7K followers, 141.4K engagements
"Software saleswoman as a practice is gonna head to (almost) zero much faster than you think.execs wont be able to accept wine and dining when pricing is nuking to zero and transparency around tool use at board level is increasing radically. Look at wall st sales practices as trading was automated. Less strip clubs and luxurious outings more slop with a $300 per head max. Now play that forward 10x"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:30Z 41.7K followers, 13.9K engagements
"You all arent ready for a world where the median voter trusts the AI more than they trust politicians journalists or their best friends. A lot of division is driven by reinforced bubbles that will be popped. Easy to delude yourself by surrounding yourself with confirming voices. Harder to do when the bot reminds you constantly that you selected the biased mode to ingest and it has supporting datapoints for an objective truth that it can present and research"
X Link 2026-02-11T21:57Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"What happens when AI drives more compute drives more AI Youre about to find out 😉 Weve upgraded our specialized reasoning mode Gemini [--] Deep Think to help solve modern science research and engineering challenges pushing the frontier of intelligence. 🧠 Watch how the Wang Lab at Duke University is using it to design new semiconductor materials. 🧵 https://t.co/BgSEmv00JP Weve upgraded our specialized reasoning mode Gemini [--] Deep Think to help solve modern science research and engineering challenges pushing the frontier of intelligence. 🧠 Watch how the Wang Lab at Duke University is using it"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:51Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"The models will be locked down. Open source will fall behind. But there is a lag and in the coming months models will first converge before the compute gap starts to show itself. OPENAI: DEEPSEEK IS DISTILLING U.S. MODELS TO GAIN AN EDGE AND HAS ONGOING EFFORTS TO FREE-RIDE ON U.S. INNOVATION MEMO OPENAI: DEEPSEEK IS DISTILLING U.S. MODELS TO GAIN AN EDGE AND HAS ONGOING EFFORTS TO FREE-RIDE ON U.S. INNOVATION MEMO"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:35Z 41.7K followers, 20.6K engagements
"All the homies hate Kalshi if you're wondering why polymarket is doing a free grocery in NYC it might be coded jab at competitor Kalshi: it's not well known their CEO is a big fan/friend of communist mayor Mamdani if you're wondering why polymarket is doing a free grocery in NYC it might be coded jab at competitor Kalshi: it's not well known their CEO is a big fan/friend of communist mayor Mamdani"
X Link 2026-02-12T23:43Z 41.7K followers, 11.7K engagements
"The U.S. govt quietly went to each major AI lab and had a long heart-to-heart on why Zucks initial plan to open-source leading-edge models was foolish. Someone from state dept pulled up those videos of Chinese drone swarms and asked each lab head how theyd feel if the headlines in WSJ read: METAs Avocado model powers attack on USS Ford 3k dead But timing matters. Shut off distillation too early and Chinese get desperate. Instead you wait until Blackwell starts ramping and then everyone locks-down leading-edge model APIs simultaneously. Its a collective action problem and Saks/Sriram have"
X Link 2026-02-13T10:47Z 41.7K followers, 53.1K engagements
"X now makes it kinda pointless to share YT links on here but if anyone cares Ill share screenshots of my podcast history/que so if you see something thats interesting you can go find it manually. If its helpful lmk otherwise dont want to spam"
X Link 2026-02-13T11:00Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Anyone see any good work on impact to US markets from South Koreas recent policy shifts encouraging domestic capital flows Something to be mindful of if Japan and others follow suit. Could be nothing 🤷♂ Papers research notes or pods appreciated 🫡"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:13Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"@Midnight_Captl As you should be"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:27Z 41.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Good cop - bad cop. Bessent - Vance. Rubio - Vance. Homan - Bovino. Recognize the pattern 🫡"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:55Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Looking forward to reading this 🔥 https://t.co/6sfBdytNzi https://t.co/6sfBdytNzi"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:27Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Re capital rotation: My input as a maxi is the time between when market realized AI is coming for software (3 yrs) and when market realize its coming for every other services sector is going to be much much shorter and when that happens capital is going to flood into the hyperscalers due to TINA. Furthermore as the labs lock down access to cutting edge models people will realize open source will begin falling behind and capital is going to rotate out of ROW into US and within US specifically into hyperscalers. America is going to hoard intelligence. The only real competitor is China. If Im"
X Link 2026-02-07T12:00Z 41.7K followers, 124K engagements
"Obviously tie back to public companies and sectors as final step"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:03Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
"RT @abcampbell: bc hes not an idiot"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:37Z 41.7K followers, [--] engagements
"@anotherbearcap @alwayslearni Industries that have trouble retaining employees (call centers warehouse workers) are desperate to adopt an alt"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:41Z 41.7K followers, [---] engagements
"should kickstart a bounty program. Let a million @nickshirleyy get at it. Offer Grok access/compute stipends for those who show initial success identifying fraud. Incentivize people to build dashboards start a leaderboard easy API plugs with other data sources to cross tabulate relevant census data for example let people extrapolate likely illegals usage patterns in blue vs red states and based on hospital filings extrapolate taxpayer costs as % of systems revenue etc Medicaid data has been open sourced so the level of fraud is easy to identify. @DOGE is not a department its a state of mind."
X Link 2026-02-13T22:53Z 41.7K followers, 13.6K engagements
"Dam I thought Billie said we were living on stolen land and IP or some shit like that SAG-AFTRA Statement on Seedance [---]. https://t.co/Etl8bsj5tA SAG-AFTRA Statement on Seedance [---]. https://t.co/Etl8bsj5tA"
X Link 2026-02-14T02:37Z 41.7K followers, [----] engagements
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