# ![@Suicide95518428 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1134170934263406592.png) @Suicide95518428 SuicideBlonde

SuicideBlonde posts on X about mplx, $mplx, $oke, $epd the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1134170934263406592/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1134170934263406592/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +541%
- [--] Month [------] +311%
- [--] Months [-------] -21%
- [--] Year [-------] -60%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1134170934263406592/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1134170934263406592/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +121%
- [--] Month [--] -7.40%
- [--] Months [---] +279%
- [--] Year [-----] +94%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1134170934263406592/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1134170934263406592/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +1.20%
- [--] Month [-----] +1.10%
- [--] Months [-----] +2.90%
- [--] Year [-----] +11%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1134170934263406592/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1134170934263406592/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  [finance](/list/finance)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [countries](/list/countries)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [musicians](/list/musicians) 

**Social topic influence**
[mplx](/topic/mplx) #3, [$mplx](/topic/$mplx) #2, [$oke](/topic/$oke) #1, [$epd](/topic/$epd) #3, [$xom](/topic/$xom), [$trgp](/topic/$trgp) #1, [$paa](/topic/$paa) #1, [debt](/topic/debt), [$et](/topic/$et) #4, [$mpc](/topic/$mpc)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@nicequarterguys](/creator/undefined) [@mlpguy](/creator/undefined) [@energycynic](/creator/undefined) [@rbl1973](/creator/undefined) [@mailboxmoney6](/creator/undefined) [@capitalobserver](/creator/undefined) [@war527](/creator/undefined) [@energypeddler](/creator/undefined) [@willrayvalentin](/creator/undefined) [@tomloughreylfe](/creator/undefined) [@jerrycap](/creator/undefined) [@wtibull](/creator/undefined) [@cdnengyanalysis](/creator/undefined) [@gugo907](/creator/undefined) [@semyyc](/creator/undefined) [@tscgllc](/creator/undefined) [@calvinfroedge](/creator/undefined) [@crudechronicle](/creator/undefined) [@streetbomber](/creator/undefined) [@williscap](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[MPLX LP (MPLX)](/topic/mplx) [Metaplex (MPLX)](/topic/$mplx) [ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)](/topic/$oke) [Enterprise Products Partners, LP. (EPD)](/topic/$epd) [Exxon Mobil (XOM)](/topic/$xom) [Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP)](/topic/$trgp) [Plains All American Pipeline, LP. (PAA)](/topic/$paa) [Energy Transfer, LP. (ET)](/topic/$et) [Partisia Blockchain (MPC)](/topic/$mpc) [Williams Companies Inc (WMB)](/topic/$wmb) [Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)](/topic/$vlo) [Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI)](/topic/$kmi) [Magellan Midstream Partners, LP. (MMP)](/topic/$mmp) [Copiosa Coin (COP2)](/topic/$cop) [Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)](/topic/$lng) [Convex Finance (CVX)](/topic/$cvx) [Hess Corp. (HES)](/topic/$hes) [Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)](/topic/$fang) [DT Midstream, Inc. (DTM)](/topic/$dtm) [Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)](/topic/$mro) [Western Midstream Partners, LP. (WES)](/topic/$wes) [ENLINK MIDSTREAM, LLC (ENLC)](/topic/$enlc) [Pioneer Natural Resources Co (PXD)](/topic/$pxd) [EOG Resources Inc (EOG)](/topic/$eog) [Phillips [--] (PSX)](/topic/$psx) [Oxygen (OXY)](/topic/$oxy) [Sun Token (SUN)](/topic/$sun) [Devon Energy Corp (DVN)](/topic/$dvn) [Chesapeake Energy, Corp. (CHK)](/topic/$chk) [Crestwood Equity Partners LP (CEQP)](/topic/$ceqp) [BP p.l.c. (BP)](/topic/$bp) [Hess Midstream LP Class A Share representing a limited partner Interest (HESM)](/topic/$hesm) [EQT, Corp. (EQT)](/topic/$eqt) [TC Energy Corporation (TRP)](/topic/$trp) [Ovintiv, Inc. (OVV)](/topic/$ovv) [PEMBINA PIPELINE CORPORATION (PBA)](/topic/$pba) [DCP Midstream, LP. (DCP)](/topic/$dcp) [NextEra Energy Inc (NEE)](/topic/$nee) [Enbridge, Inc (ENB)](/topic/$enb) [Sui Name Service (NS)](/topic/$ns) [NextEra Energy Partners, LP (NEP)](/topic/$nep) [Venture Global, Inc (VG)](/topic/$vg) [Arweave (AR)](/topic/$ar) [CargoX (CXO)](/topic/$cxo) [APA Corp (US) (APA)](/topic/$apa) [Cheniere Energy Partners, LP. (CQP)](/topic/$cqp) [TotalEnergies SE (TTE)](/topic/$tte)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"$PAA and $PSX to jointly develop Red Oak pipeline for $2.5 billion. Just when we thought midstream capex was beginning to moderate this comes along. Lets see who gets to $0/bbl tariff first - Longhorn BridgeTex and Cactus I are front-runners. Watch out $MMP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1138204550756806656)  2019-06-10T22:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Reuters saying $EPD looking to divest their share of the Eagle Ford JV with $PAA. What does this say about the stuff they bought from $PXD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1140782885143756802)  2019-06-18T00:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Peter Lynch said: the bearish argument always sounds smart. My feeble attempt at smartness on $WMB - 1) gas at $2.25/Mcf means NE volume growth will be lower 2) $CHK bankruptcy risk rising 3) downward guidance revision imminent. But stock grinds higher. What am I missing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1142210695498522624)  2019-06-21T23:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Speculation that $EPD $OKE or $ET may buy $WES. First off did anyone bother to do the math on post-deal leverage at these companies I suppose $EPD could do it but what do they get.an over-levered balance sheet with much higher wellhead risk. $EPD DONT DO IT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1143305887102246916)  2019-06-24T23:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Private Equity math for $WES looks decent - low-double digit IRR. Heaven knows after the twin debacles of $TGE and $ENLC - the smart money folks from PE need a W"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1143306509285240832)  2019-06-24T23:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"With the $MPLX and $ANDX merger closing imminently we shall soon see some crappy assets up for grabs: Uinta G&P Bakken processing NW Products pipeline. Between fee-hungry PE firms and yield-hungry pension funds this could be an interesting bidding war"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1146069469166329858)  2019-07-02T14:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Does $EPDs LPG export expansion spell death-knell for $MPLXs BANGL project The idea behind BANGL is a good one but it is about [--] years too late"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1148354186716864513)  2019-07-08T22:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Good to see the $AMZ being driven by some real companies today - $EPD $ET and $PAA. A bit of tail wagging the dog too with $NGL and $GEL but by and large orderly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1149008777502515200)  2019-07-10T17:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$KMI: Didnt get commitments to convert Double H to NGLs. No shit. Like you thought producers in the Bakken would be able to get out of their acreage and plant dedication to $OKE - who at the depth of the oil downturn said theyd reconfigure their contracts and did it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1151608151227150336)  2019-07-17T21:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"A bit late to be talking about the $PSXP IDR buyback but $PSX would have recd. the same cash flows as the IDRs with [--] mm units. Theyre getting a [---] mm units. This is no different than $PSXP buying back [--] mm units for a 25% premium. If this isnt Greemail what is it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1154900467190812673)  2019-07-26T23:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$OKE beats by 2% and stock is up c. 3.5%. $EPD beats by 8% and is up 2.5%. Is this the C-Corp vs. MLP difference"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1156576030632681472)  2019-07-31T14:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$WMB - decent results but not in the same league as $EPD or $OKE. Stock reaction will hinge on how credible the revised (lower) NE guidance is. Its stupid that we are worried about $150 mm of EBITDA on $5 billion base. But thats Energy investing. Let the tail wag the dog"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1156727116467187714)  2019-08-01T00:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$CXO taken to the woodshed. $CVX may be sharpening their pencils right around now. I also wonder if this opens the door to activists. Somethings got to give"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1157086535067549701)  2019-08-02T00:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Its hard to be positive in energy but here are some truly bright spots: $EPD $PBA $OKE $MMP $TRP $COG $PSX $VLO $COP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1157446617408122885)  2019-08-03T00:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$ET reports tonight and going by what $EPD and $PAA did $ET should have a very robust Q. But does it matter anymore"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1159152154755641344)  2019-08-07T17:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Stocks on sale following the meltdown in Energy Midstream: 1) $MPLX 2) $TRGP 3) $ET 4) $LNG 5) $OKE 6) $WMB 7) $EQM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1161807173090807809)  2019-08-15T01:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Looks like the stellar stock response in $PDCE and $SRCI has left Energy FinTwit kinda sorta speechless. Certainly I am"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1166077183632314368)  2019-08-26T19:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$WES was c.$30 when I first ran the math. Things look substantially better at current levels for a PE-led take-out. Given $OXYs cash needs this could be a steal for PE. Private Equity math for $WES looks decent - low-double digit IRR. Heaven knows after the twin debacles of $TGE and $ENLC - the smart money folks from PE need a W. Private Equity math for $WES looks decent - low-double digit IRR. Heaven knows after the twin debacles of $TGE and $ENLC - the smart money folks from PE need a W"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1166829962982318082)  2019-08-28T21:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I want to issue a mea culpa on $CXO. I wrongly thought that their asset sale/buyback announcement was +ve. Upon further analysis it is simply UNSUSTAINABLE at $55 Oil and $2.50 gas. Barely FCF neutral and one shock away from falling into the garbage bin https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1168956868334673926s=20 Brutal day in Energy (as usual). Bit surprised to see $CXO down despite decision to buyback c. 10% of market-cap back and sale of New Mexico shelf assets. Isnt this what we want of shale cos. Spend less / return more back to investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1169727690628354048)  2019-09-05T21:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$EOG signing a deal with $LNG to sell gas at JKM prices. Second E&P after $APA to do so. $PXD $CXO $XEC $ECA and $FANG should all be considering this. Cant afford to put up -ve realization prints"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1173724933572239360)  2019-09-16T22:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Elliot thinks converting $MPLX into a C-Corp is easy. To be non-taxable 17% of unitholders will have to sign on. And for what To run the gauntlet of tax rates going up in future. If they just create an $ETRN-like structure the entity will have a tax drag. Stupid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1176981592344076288)  2019-09-25T22:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The avoidance of taxes is the only intellectual pursuit that still carries any reward. J.M. Keynes Clearly Elliot didnt get the memo. Why else would they force a C-Corp conversion upon $MPLX. And why would we knowingly ask MLPs to leak cash flows out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1176989303026659329)  2019-09-25T22:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Been a painful couple of days in $MPLX. Some simple math to demonstrate the folly of converting to C-Corp: Current [----] EPS = $2.65/sh [----] EPS as a C-Corp = $2.04/sh At $30/sh stock was at 11.3x P/E. Stock has to trade at 14.7x P/E to be worth the same as a C-Corp"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1177364377021943809)  2019-09-26T23:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The kids (MLPs) are all grown up series. Consensus EPS and P/E for todays MLP: $PAA 2020E = $1.93 (10.6x) 2021E = $2.11 (9.7x) Took two distribution cuts and an egregious IDR buyout to get here. Even now [--] nos. look high IMO given weak shale outlook"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1179380178541334529)  2019-10-02T12:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The kids (MLPs) are all grown up series. Last one in this series. $WES Consensus EPS & P/E: 2020E = $2.23 (11.2x) 2021E = $2.40 (10.4x) Thinking about starting a Buyback Potential series next week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1180114587083055104)  2019-10-04T13:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"MLP / Midstream Buyback potential series. Todays MLP - $MPLX Cant use Ks & Qs due to $ANDX merger. Based on my ests. CFO = $4.2 bn / yr Less: Divis = $3 bn / yr Excess Cash = $1.2 bn / yr At 1/3 Buyback potential = $400 mm / year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1182310640393887744)  2019-10-10T15:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Stupid question but asked seriously. Why is the $PE / $JAG deal getting spanked while $PDCE / $SRCI was rewarded (at least the first few days). Not close to either name so just wondering"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1183740333781323776)  2019-10-14T13:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"WSJ making a big deal of the so-called Shale Bonds. Article skimpy on details but it looks a lot like the old VPPs that the like of $CHK did [--] yrs ago. Is there a bond floor on these issuances Seems like just another way to lose money. Why not just buy $EPD $ET & $MMP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1186243398891646977)  2019-10-21T11:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Looks like $BAMs $2 bn purchase of 25% stake in Cove Point from $D being done at 12x (assuming $3.00/mmbtu liquefaction fee [----] mtpa 85% margin). $CQP trading at 13.2x 2020E EBITDA. Wonder why the discount"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1186296170274066433)  2019-10-21T15:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Relieved to see $WMB not fall out of bed on the $COG maintenance scenario. 😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1187851699425288192)  2019-10-25T22:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Quick takes on $WMB: 1) Q319 annualized EBITDA for NE G&P accounts almost fully for [----] guidance. If volumes stay flat this is clearing the deck imho 2) Looks like TranCo rate case provides about $65-$75 mm of revenue This was a +ve release I think but"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1189703379821436931)  2019-10-31T00:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Wells out with a rpt past Fri titled the $EPD conundrum. Talks re: defensive capex. Question is: Is your franchise so weak that you need to keep throwing good money after bad And if u know youre investing in duds why arent u selling them before investing in the next dud"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1191155336092225536)  2019-11-04T00:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Continue to be struck by the abysmal nat gas realizations at $PXD and $CLR. I can understand $PXDs problems with Waha basis but $CLR with its 2-stream reporting is harder to decipher. Going to give it a shot this evening. Welcome any color from Energy FinTwit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1191518879845167106)  2019-11-05T00:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Once again market punishing $WMB for an impact that is by $CHKs own admission not significant. $735 mm MV lost - implying EBITDA loss of $75 mm or nearly 20% of Eagle Ford cash flows. $CHK says no change in per unit fees. Go figure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1191746805366743040)  2019-11-05T15:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Going to make an attempt to quantify the $CHK risk to $WMB (1/4) Eagle Ford: Capital Invested (2014)= $1.3 billion Cost of Service (EBITDA / Invested Capital) = 22% EBITDA = $286 mm EBITDA at 15% Cost of Service = $195 mm Impact = $91 mm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1192299148499922944)  2019-11-07T04:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I wonder if the $NBLX simplification deal has +ve read-through for $WMB inasmuch as $WMB is NOT buying $NBLX. There were rumors to that effect a few months ago"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1195327411111497729)  2019-11-15T13:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Looking at $COPs Analyst Day slides I did not get the impression that their Permian acreage was blocky contiguous or core of the core and yet theyre targeting many years of growth. What am I (or EFT) missing If $COP can do it why not others"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1197319325130117122)  2019-11-21T01:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"With National Grid having found a way to supply gas to customers for two more years is it a de facto death knell for $WMB s NESE project"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1198998362625851392)  2019-11-25T16:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$BRKA should buy $EPD: 1) ROIC approaching 12.0% 2) Should generate $6.5 billion of EBIT (not EBITDA) annually 3) Balance Sheet in good shape 4) integrated biz = competitive advantages 5) bunch of old folksy PIC dudes at $EPD & Buffett should get along like a house on fire"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1202355678876188672)  2019-12-04T22:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$KMI traded up 2% on commentary about a hypothetical buyback based on re-levering the balance back to 4.5x. Imagine if $EPD announces a buyback based on re-levering to 3.75x (from 3.50x which they project for y/e 2020) Thats $2 bn potential for those unfamiliar with $EPD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1202790116021936129)  2019-12-06T03:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$KMI $TRP $ENB $OKE $PPL.TO $IPL.TO $GEI.TO all up 30% in USD terms. Most have 4.0x Debt/EBITDA most arent showing any meaningful earnings growth in [----] and most will eventually pay significant taxes. MLPs over C-corps in [----] anyone WEEK THOUGHTS: PIPELINES PIPING MLPs A-LEAPING.https://t.co/wVzGsrNrS9 https://t.co/YbhiOMPVaS WEEK THOUGHTS: PIPELINES PIPING MLPs A-LEAPING.https://t.co/wVzGsrNrS9 https://t.co/YbhiOMPVaS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1208416546210615297)  2019-12-21T15:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"A friend of mine eloquently demolished my long $MPLX pitch by telling me: 1) if you want scale/integration go with $EPD 2) if you want management go with $OKE 3) if you want Permian upside go with $TRGP 4) if you want a cheap stock go with $PAA All I said was: Yes sir"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1222634246927540229)  2020-01-29T21:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@mr_skilling @mailboxmoney6 @Teutoburg1 @EthanHBellamy The right IDR multiple is the inverse of the sustainable distribution yield of the LP. If qtly IDR = $25 mm and sustainable qtly distribution = $0.25/unit then [---] mm units will discharge the IDRs w/o diluting LPs. There is zero justification for a premium beyond this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1223066141393854465)  2020-01-31T02:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Looks like a blowout Q from $TRGP. $465 mm of EBITDA for the Q vs. consensus of c. $375 mm. Guide for [----] also stronger than consensus - $1.68 bn at midpoint vs. consensus of $1.63 bn. The two youths are delivering. Matt Meloy and Jenn Kneale delivering"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1230458882813833216)  2020-02-20T11:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Interesting headlines on Reuters re: $WMB - looking to divest some assets in the West for $5 bn. Assuming assets being mktd. are combo of G&P + Pipes buyback potential at: 9x = $1.7 bn 10x = $1.9 bn 11x = $2.1 bn 12x = $2.3 bn All combos get post-sale Debt/EBITDA down to 4.2x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1232815712248438785)  2020-02-26T23:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"IR at $EPD : our decision to not lever up to buyback stock is looking smart now Me: 1) have you see how much $MMP has o/p $EPD by +11% 2) if you put so much stock into hindsight wisdom can we talk about your purchase of Eagle Ford gathering and sale of GoM crude pipes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1237767625574436865)  2020-03-11T15:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$TRGP taking some bold steps. Slashing [----] CAPEX by 30% and Y-o-Y decline of 75% in [----]. Bold and with the 90% dividend cut - quite decisive. Once again the two Yutes taking charge and doing the right thing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1240445340194570242)  2020-03-19T01:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"It looks really bad in Midstream-land. But buying the following names now is likely to result in some big winners. $PAA $MPLX $MMP $PSXP $TRGP $PPL.TO $OKE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1241554182051696641)  2020-03-22T02:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"If $CEQP can reduce O&M + G&A by $40 mm (annualized) shouldnt $EPD and $ET be able to reduce it by (say) $300 mm to $500 mm each They are 15-20x bigger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1250894968790626304)  2020-04-16T21:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Ironic that the more imminent $CHK bankruptcy gets the less impact it has on $WMB. I guess the bark is scarier than the bite. Not complaining. Enjoying - after a very very very long and frustrating time. What say @CapitalObserver"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1259882838117277703)  2020-05-11T16:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Lets take stock & see how these names did: $PAA = +50.3% $MPLX = +56.3% $MMP = +43.0% $PSXP = +20.5% $TRGP = +99.1% $PPL.TO = +48.1% $OKE = +64.7% Average = +54.6% $AMZ = +43.5% $XLE = +48.2% $AMNA = +39.5% $SPY = +25.3% https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1241554182051696641s=20 https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1241554182051696641s=20"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1260311815181008903)  2020-05-12T20:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"In a 7-2 ruling the SCOTUS has ruled in favor of Atlantic Coast Pipeline ( $D ) and indirectly in favor of MVP ( $EQM / $ETRN ) - paving their way to cross the Appalachian Trail. [--] of [--] liberal justices sided with conservative colleagues. Shows enviros has a weak case"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1272543917523656704)  2020-06-15T14:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$EPD - the MLP - out with Q220 results with EBITDA 4% ahead of consensus that had been revised upwards in recent weeks. Meanwhile last evening $OKE - a C-Corp - reported Q220 results that were 5% below downwardly revised consensus. Biden is coming you MLP-haters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1288424572073775110)  2020-07-29T10:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"E&Ps and Midstream would do well to follow Refinings lead in starving the business of capital (and even extracting it) - hence far less invective against Refiners. Overshadowed by the news below is the news that $MPC is idling Martinez and Gallup refineries. Marathon Petroleum $MPC has agreed to sell its gas stations to 7-Eleven for USD 21bn in cash: https://t.co/D1Q4RTftQb Marathon Petroleum $MPC has agreed to sell its gas stations to 7-Eleven for USD 21bn in cash: https://t.co/D1Q4RTftQb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1290103214340153345)  2020-08-03T01:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Say what you will about G&P and $DCP in particular - Wouter Van Kampen has done one hell of a job managing through this crisis. So we must (even if begrudgingly) give credit where its due. If only he had cut the distribution in 2016.oh well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1291146412244303874)  2020-08-05T22:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Wolfe doing everything in their power to pump their Long $CNP call by trying to bait Kelcy Warren on the $ET call about growth and M&A. I mean are the folks at Wolfe just plain dumb or blind to not have seen the $BP announcement yday Energy and Growth Have the twain ever met"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1291147241495855111)  2020-08-05T23:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Notable Midstream Earnings Re-Cap (Beat or Miss vs. consensus) $EPD: +4.0% $MMP: -2.4% $MPLX: +6.6% $PAA: -2.4% $ET: -4.0% $WMB: +4.5% $KMI: -4.0% $TRP: -3.1% $ENB: +4.2% $OKE: -6.0% $LNG: Flat excl. cargo cancellation rev $PSXP: Flat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1292134792616607744)  2020-08-08T16:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$BRK and Buffett have been buying up oil and gas assets off late. Can we get him to take $MMP private at $55.00/unit What say @kylerhasson"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1300903417037099010)  2020-09-01T21:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@yyc_sem @EthanHBellamy Is it even a meaningful duopoly I mean $ENB does long-haul Oil Trpt. $TRP does long-haul Gas Trpt. $PPL.TO is the 800-lb gorilla in NGL Logistics $KEY.TO is the go-to G&P co. $IPL.TO is their version of Intrastate and $GEI.TO is the dominant provider of crude storage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1306390153477357568)  2020-09-17T00:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Renewables reaching fever pitch. $SPH has rallied 10% since announcing their purchase of a 39% stake in Oberon fuels which makes Renewable Di-Methyl Ether (rDME). Logic being rDME can be blended with propane and diesel. The icing: it is a great carrier of.HYDROGEN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1308499385752354816)  2020-09-22T20:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"To the Managements of $EPD $MMP $MPLX $PAA and $ET: IF YOU CANT BUYBACK $300-$400 MM OF STOCK A YEAR YOU ARE UNWORTHY OF STAYING IN YOUR SEATS. FIND A WAY TO GET IT DONE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1344773827805523968)  2020-12-31T22:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Two midstream companies that are $SPY components reported: $OKE missed by 3.4% provided in-line EBITDA guidance for [--] on capex that is $250 mm higher - well done $WMB beat by 4.7% provided in-line guidance for [--] (EBITDA & Capex). Season of mixed bags continues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1363998622858305537)  2021-02-22T23:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@whtulsaguy @MLPguy $WMB was never commercial enough. They blinked on LDH they blinked on $SUG and they just didnt have the courage to go after $SXL to build on their Caiman purchase. They then sold the Canada midstream biz. which $IPL.TO is now making a success of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1374417210450477064)  2021-03-23T17:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$WMB - printing a beat and raise. Keeps the streak going for Midstream. $MPLX BMO tomorrow and $PAA AMC - can they keep it up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1389355832643624973)  2021-05-03T23:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Flurry of earnings today. Some main points: $OKE - 2.5% Beat. Expect full year to be above mid-point of guide $ET - 0.5% Miss. No change to capex for [--] - [--] - yet. $PAA - 16.9% Beat. Full year guide barely changes (+1.0%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1422718418495709190)  2021-08-04T00:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$EPD is on this graphic at $50 billion. Given its LT FCF potential of $2.75/sh and solid balance sheet it ought to be trading at an FCF yield of 7.5% for a market cap of $75 billion. Loads of Potential Zero Pride"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1453328646840651781)  2021-10-27T11:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Matt Meloy and Jenn Kneale of $TRGP playing Santa Claus for investors delivering multiple goodies: 1) Earnings beat (+2.5% or so) 2) Guidance Raise 3) Massive Dividend Raise / Reset (+250%) 4) Targeting Debt to be 3.25x EBITDA by end of year (2021)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1456210976806682627)  2021-11-04T10:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"15) $WMB = +6.3% 16) $KEY.TO = -6.7% 17) $GEI.TO = -1.4%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1458218514825756676)  2021-11-09T23:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"(1/9) I speculated that if crude oil exports are banned once again $PAA would be one of the beneficiaries. In response @NiceQuarterGuys asked me why I thought as such. It is a great question that I want to explore and possibly I could be wrong but let me lay out my thoughts 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1458638944929820676)  2021-11-11T03:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@VolteFaceInvest Agree with the idea. I would however say that $EPD and $MMP have tended to lag in euphoric periods. Also $SPH feels a bit defensive. $MPLX and $SUN might be more suited for the scenario imho. Feels like we need a major shift in tone from $EPD to get it moving"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1475489755982925825)  2021-12-27T15:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$EPD wasting no time at all in pissing $3.25 billion away on the Navitas deal. Guidance implies sub-7x EBITDA deal. Key Question for $EPD Mgmt: Are the Navitas NGL barrels already dedicated to their Pipes/Fracs If so why spend $3.25 bn on upstream G&P capacity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1480532404322324480)  2022-01-10T13:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"1/5 Not much commentary or sniping from $EPD Analyst Day. Heres some of both: 1) [--] new projects announced - Mentone II - Navitas VI - Acadian expansion - Frac XII - Ethane export expansion - Ethylene export expansion - MAPL NGL-to-Refined Prod"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1514209540094496775)  2022-04-13T11:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$EPD out with a big beat vs. consensus for Q1: EBITDA was nearly 9% better than expectations. [--] out of [--] so far on beats. $KMI had beaten expectations as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1521074713434411009)  2022-05-02T10:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$WMB keeping the Midstream Earnings momentum going with a 3.6% beat vs. Consensus and lifting full-year guidance by a shade over 4.0%. [--] out of [--] on Beats in the US so far. $MPLX out tomorrow before open"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1521241643327885315)  2022-05-02T21:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$TRGP out with Q1 results that were in-line (+1%) vs. consensus. After $ET and $DCP yesterday this feels a bit muted. They repurchased $50 mm of stock at $67. Not remarkable in and of itself but instructive about where company might step in if stock swoons for some reason"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1522165639477088257)  2022-05-05T10:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Q122 Earnings Recap - EBITDA Var vs. Cons $KMI (+4.9%) $EPD (+8.9%) $ET (+12.9%) $MPLX (-0.3%) $MMP (-3.5%) $PAA (+2.5%) $WES (+11.0%) $DCP (+9.5%) $ENLC (+6.6%) $TRGP (-0.1%) $WMB (+3.6%) $OKE (-1.0%) $TRP (-2.7%) $ENB (+2.0%) $PBA (+9.9%) $KEY.TO (+4.3%) $GEI.TO (+5.3%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1524152857943068672)  2022-05-10T22:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"(1/4) A JV b/w Whitewater Midstream $ENLC $MPLX and $DVN announced FID on Matterhorn Gas Pipeline: 1) [---] miles 2) Waha-to-Katy 3) [---] bcf/d 4) ISD Q324 Cost estimate not provided. Given Permian Highway (2 bcf/d) cost $2.4 bn this one could cost $3.0 bn imo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1527438464718888973)  2022-05-19T23:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$MPLX out with a nice beat with EBITDA coming in 2% better than consensus. Two more processing plants announced Buyback authorization increased by $1 billion No special dividends this Q. We may get something as big as the one last year ($0.50+ per unit) in November"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1554431575592411136)  2022-08-02T11:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@EnergyCynic @mailboxmoney6 @PATCHnHrd @DevoutDriller @heik_energy @SuperSpiked Million-dollar question. The per-MW turbine revenue earned by $VWS or $SGRE were coming down. Even $GE had falling wind-turbine pricing. However as you can see all are suffering. I suspect that eventually they will all raise pricing which will reverse the trend I feel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1556848424972083200)  2022-08-09T03:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The Minnesota PUC approved $XEL plan to build a [---] MW solar next to the soon-to-be-retired Sherco coal-fired plant. The project cost before ITC = $575 mm or about $1250/KW Minnesota solar capacity factor = 17% Unlevered IRR of 6.25% at $85/MWh power price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1570829322365325312)  2022-09-16T17:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Q322 Midstream Earnings recap: $EPD = +0.3% $MMP = +4.5% $ET = -3.0% $PAA = +12.0% $MPLX = +1.7% $KMI = -2.8% $WMB = +2.2% $OKE = -1.5% $TRGP = +2.3% $LNG = -2.5% $ENB = +3.8% $TRP = +2.9% $PBA = +9.5% $WES = -1.8% $ENLC = +5.5% $CEQP = -6.3% $KEY.TO = +2.9% $GEI.TO = +12.0%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1590503308338565120)  2022-11-10T00:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@AhmedBa44329064 @ecommerceshares Net cash was more or less the norm pre-2010. Yes high net cash can prompt bad capital allocation but these companies will carry the shock from COVID for a long time. They will think twice before levering up like $SHEL for $BG or $XOM for $XTO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1595187664940138504)  2022-11-22T22:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I know no one gives a s**t about this name - certainly I dont - but is $NGL on the verge of bankruptcy Stock grinds lower every day. Down 37% for the year. Market cap = $150 mm Debt = $3.5 billion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1598333494773616640)  2022-12-01T15:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@EnergyCynic @JCOviedo6 $MPLX - 9.5% dist. yield + some growth (2-3%) Or $DCP - same yield as [--] yr Tsy + chance of 7-9% premium on revised offer from $PSX in the next 3-6 mths"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1608606344260759552)  2022-12-29T23:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@StreetBomber @resourcebull @InvestInOnG I think Midstreamers exposed to the right basins and excess capacity (op. leverage) will continue to do very well. Permian: $TRGP $PAA Haynesville: $DTM GoM: $WMB Bakken: $OKE (rising GORs flat/falling oil) Canada: $PBA Diversified: $ET $EPD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1610012967659253760)  2023-01-02T20:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@MLPguy $DCP since IPO: +350 bps annually vs. S&P [---]. $100 invested in $DCP at the IPO (12/2/2005) would be worth $759 today. For S&P $100 went to $335. Can't say I expected this. I suppose time is your friend in the long run - even if the underlying assets aren't the best"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1612874332509769730)  2023-01-10T18:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@willis_cap Be careful. $APD has a tendency to overpromise and under-deliver. $LIN is better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1615539015993769984)  2023-01-18T02:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Decent start to Midstream earnings season: $KMI beats by a shade under 2.0% and $OKE raises dividend by 2.0% - prelim guide for [----] (provided back in Nov) is for $4.0 bn of EBITDA. That's with partial year of MB-5 Fractionation and Demicks Lake III. [----] could get to $4.2 bn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1615880002192674816)  2023-01-19T01:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Does anyone have an idea what caused some of the outsized moves in certain names at the open $WMB +9% and $OKE -7% made zero sense. They're both trading more reasonably now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1617905428805062659)  2023-01-24T15:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The first to talk of this was the former CEO of $SLB Andrew Gould. Here is my question: if we've underinvested for [--] yrs how is it that we've managed to produce enough oil to meet demand each year without oil averaging much more than $90/bbl https://x.com/WhiteTundraSG/status/1617670363726614528s=20&t=b_fKAvewCkiqrdRtNsd-lw Despite WTI averaging $95/bbl in [----] O&G market volatility + changing mindset around FCF allocation = FID (final investment decision) of only 20B boe last year. The world now consumes 60B boe per year meaning we have been in investment shortfall for [--] years running 🛢💰"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1618031630253461504)  2023-01-24T23:42Z [----] followers, 28.2K engagements


"$WMB raising dividend by 5.3% following a year when EBITDA should be up nearly 12.0%. [----] will be a hard act to follow in [----] but good momentum with GoM projects. Regional Energy Access permit would further improve the earnings outlook in [----] and beyond"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1620490463089430528)  2023-01-31T18:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$EPD out with a robust 5.4% beat vs. Consensus. EBITDA for Q4'22 came in at $2.38 billion vs. consensus expectations of $2.26 billion. G&P NGL Pipelines & Frac and Natural Gas segments putting up stellar numbers. Distribution was raised 5.4% earlier in the quarter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1620755919792648192)  2023-02-01T12:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$MMP posted a 7.9% beat vs. expectations. Q4'22 EBITDA came in at $416.9 mm vs. Consensus at $386 mm. Guidance for [----] set at $1494 mm - a shade above Consensus which sits at $1483 mm. Expect $216 mm of post-divy FCF for [----] - enough to repo [--] mm units (2% of o/s). Solid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1621140522906816518)  2023-02-02T13:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$PAA out with Q4'22 results and [----] Guidance. Quick takes (1/5): 1) Beat on Q by 4.4% 2) [----] EBITDA Guide of $2.5 bn (mid-point) - inline with consensus 3) FCF (Before Prefs) Guide for [----] = $1.6 bn (incl. $270 asset sales and $200 mm WC build) i.e. $1.5 bn excl. the items"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1623490094496641025)  2023-02-09T01:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$TRGP reports tomorrow. Consensus estimates are: Q4'22 EBITDA = $825 mm [----] EBITDA = $3440 mm [----] CAPEX = $1675 (Growth + Maint.) Expect dividendby 10% Don't expect much share repo capacity given Grand Prix buyout in Jan y/e [----] Leverage = 3.2x (3.3x if repo = $200 mm)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1628249809344778240)  2023-02-22T04:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$OKE reported Q4'22 EBITDA of $967.4 mm beating consensus by 2.8%. [----] Guidance excluding insurance settlement impacts is $4.04 bn at the mid-point or about 1% short of consensus. Table below provides some details"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1630324614256533507)  2023-02-27T21:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Midstream Q4'22 Earnings Recap: $EPD +5.4% $MMP +7.9% $PAA +4.4% $MPLX +1.3% $ET +4.7% $KMI +1.8% $WMB +4.9% $OKE +2.8% $TRGP +1.8% $LNG +4.2% $DTM +2.6% $TRP.TO +4.7% $ENB.TO +0.3% $PPL.TO +2.2% $GEI.TO +1.2% $ENLC -2.8% $WES -2.9% $KEY.TO -3.6% $CEQP -5.6% $HESM -2.7%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1632776067084582912)  2023-03-06T16:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(6/10) $PXD and $MRO had the lowest cumulative impairments b/w 2015-2021 with both sub-$1.5 billion With $33.2 billion $XOM had the most impairments but $XOM is also about 3.5x as big as $COP and 9.0x as big as $PXD So we must look at impairments relative to Capital Employed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1633713829434589185)  2023-03-09T06:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"(7/10) When we consider impairments as a % of Capital Employed the picture becomes unflattering for some. Impairments at $DVN exceed Book Capital Employed as of y/e [----]. When added back impairments account for over half the capital employed $APA and $OVV quite bad also"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1633713830936170506)  2023-03-09T06:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$WMB looking interesting here. Stock near oversold levels. Nothing wrong with the business. Wouldn't be surprised to see stock get back to $31 in a week or two. What say you @CapitalObserver"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1634229276034621441)  2023-03-10T16:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Could be wrong but with cracks still sitting north of $35/bbl Refiners may be better value than E&Ps here. DYOD $MPC $VLO $PSX $DINO $PBF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1636121543854940160)  2023-03-15T21:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Carbonates_Bro @impetro9 I read some time ago that they approved quite a few development plans proposed by $CIVI and $PDCE to the point where the two have enough permits for 3-5 years. Is that not right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1636732828128780288)  2023-03-17T14:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@WilliamLaceyYYC @Josh_Young_1 $OVV is about 50% gas (not 20%). At least according to this:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1644518068771586048)  2023-04-08T01:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Very busy earnings day tomorrow (5/2) with $EPD $MPLX $ET $DTM $ENLC $CEQP $LNG and $OKE among midstream companies. Among refiners $MPC reports tomorrow as well. Practically a deluge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1653227927205474304)  2023-05-02T02:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Predicting refiner earnings is tough. Here is my first attempt at $MPC earnings (rpts. tom. AM). Refining EBITDA = $3590 mm Midstream ( $MPLX ) EBITDA = $1450 mm Total EBITDA = $5040 mm (+9.7% vs. Cons.) Here's my basis - we'll find out tomorrow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1653248149228597250)  2023-05-02T04:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Midstream earnings this morning generally very good: $EPD - $2.32 bn (+2.7% vs. Cons.) $MPLX - $1.52 bn (+5.7% vs. Cons.) $LNG - $3.6 bn (+44.8% vs. Cons.) - likely timing effect since FY guidance raised only $200 mm $DTM - $225 mm (inline) $CEQP - $193 mm (inline) Solid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1653375080569753600)  2023-05-02T12:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$MPC reported a beat but not as big as my rookie model was telling me: Refining EBITDA = $3312 mm (vs. $3590 mm model) Midstream = $1530 mm (vs. $1450 mm model) Total EBITDA = $4842 (vs. $5040 mm model) Still about 5.5% better than consensus. https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1653248149228597250s=20 Predicting refiner earnings is tough. Here is my first attempt at $MPC earnings (rpts. tom. AM). Refining EBITDA = $3590 mm Midstream ( $MPLX ) EBITDA = $1450 mm Total EBITDA = $5040 mm (+9.7% vs. Cons.) Here's my basis - we'll find out tomorrow https://t.co/uXz2drSjU6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1653376678633127943)  2023-05-02T12:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Quick look at $ET and $OKE results: $ET - EBITDA = $3.43 bn vs. Consensus of $3.25 bn for a 5.5% beat. Full year guidance$150 mm but CAPEX guide$400 mm. $OKE - EBITDA = $1.72 bn vs. Consensus of $1.66 bn for a 3.2% beat. Numbers incl. insurance settlement proceeds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1653498733198188544)  2023-05-02T20:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$WES reported adjusted EBITDA of $499 mm which was inline with consensus. Announced a special distribution of $0.356/unit in addition to the regular quarterly distribution of $0.50/unit. Special dist. reflects the excess cash generated in 2022"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1653856424492138497)  2023-05-03T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$WMB out with what looks like a strong beat. EBITDA came in at $1795 million which is 8.9% ahead of Consensus FY guidance ($6.4 bn to $6.8 bn) reit. Major projects on track. Results suggest high end achievable but with gas E&Ps dropping rigs low-end is more realistic ()"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1653858447396315144)  2023-05-03T20:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$TRGP out with a whopper of a beat. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $940.6 mm or 7.3% better than Consensus Beat driven by strong NGL marketing Announcing new fractionator (Train 10) + strongly alluding to another processing plant CAPEX guide $250 mm New $1 bn share repo auth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1654078312342343681)  2023-05-04T10:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@MLPguy That means a sweetener is on the way - much like $BPMP $SHLX $PBFX $DCP etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1654134857595846659)  2023-05-04T14:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$EOG has by far the best balance sheet among US shale operators. Net Cash of $1.2 billion (1.8% of market cap). Solid execution all around"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1654324618285424640)  2023-05-05T03:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$PAA beats Consensus expectations by 8.4% as EBITDA for the quarter comes in at $715 mm vs. expectations of $660 mm. FY guidance maintained. Strong results despite (sequentially) lower WCS-Maya diffs during the Q"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1654460081193230338)  2023-05-05T12:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@StrapCap @BlueChipOil Makes sense. I am not close enough to Utes in general but it seems $AWK has a similar growth profile (and valuation) as $NEE and yet it would appear $AWK EPS profile is a lot more like what you describe of a utility"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1656108161915396097)  2023-05-10T01:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Mega deal in Midstream-land with $OKE buying $MMP for $67.50/sh. $25/unit in cash + [------] shares of $OKE per unit of $MMP Deal fully taxable to $MMP $OKE defers taxes till [----] $OKE diversifies away from Bakken to a capital-light inflation-indexed business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1657883224054325248)  2023-05-14T22:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"(1/10) Some thoughts on the $OKE - $MMP deal. First let's do some numbers: Standalone $MMP EBITDA ('24) = $1600 mm Standalone $OKE EBITDA ('24) = $4100 mm Synergies = $200 mm Combined EBITDA = $5900 mm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1657924855981809664)  2023-05-15T01:44Z [----] followers, 44.5K engagements


"(2/10) Standalone $MMP Interest = $230 mm Standalone $OKE Interest = $670 mm Interest on Debt used for cash component = $290 mm Combined Interest expense = $1190 mm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1657924858246823936)  2023-05-15T01:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(4/10) Combined Free Cash Flow = $3710 mm Dividend Obligation = $2225 mm (582 mm shares at $OKE post-deal) Cash Taxes = $0 (for the period 2024-2026 incl.) Discretionary Cash Flow (2024-2026) = $1485 mm Discretionary Cash Flow (2027+) = $600 mm ($900 mm of cash taxes)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1657924862424358913)  2023-05-15T01:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(7/10) Pro-forma Debt at y/e [----] = $20300 mm Pro-forma Debt-to-EBITDA at y/e [----] = 3.44x - seems inline with $OKE guidance Post-2026 Discretionary Cash = $600 mm per year - so ability to pay down debt and repo shares down sharply due to cash taxes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1657924866874507264)  2023-05-15T01:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(8/10) Deal diversifies $OKE away from Bakken Deal lowers cash taxes for $OKE Deal DOES NOT provide a growth platform for $OKE to build upon Deal MAY raise questions re: diversifying away from one melting ice cube (Bakken) to another one (declining refined product demand)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1657924868313161728)  2023-05-15T01:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The fact that $MMP doesn't provide $OKE with a growth platform (and is possibly a melting ice-cube) is weighing on $OKE performance today. So the question is what co. would have provided a growth platform In my humble opinion $DTM. Yes Haynesville gas is hated today. But"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1658122725964099586)  2023-05-15T14:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Investors in MLPs like $PAA $NS $GEL $CQP $CEQP etc. saying: To hell with tax deferral. Take me out at a 25% premium now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1658131907987513349)  2023-05-15T15:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"So $OKE - $MMP merger requires approval of the respective shareholders and unitholders. Below is a chart from $MMP's C-corp conversion deck from about [--] years ago showing what I think is the split of unitholders by vintage:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1658258037763653633)  2023-05-15T23:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@EnergyPeddler @_sem_yyc @Jack_McClendon No one ever got poor taking profits and paying taxes is a high-class problem. Market always gives you opportunities - if not $MSFT then something else. Arguably you could've sold $MSFT at $220 back in Nov'22 and reinvested after-tax proceeds into $META and been better off"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1659395751351406592)  2023-05-19T03:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@EnergyPeddler @Thepadre13 @mailboxmoney6 $LIN CAPEX = 30% of EBITDA Shaleco O&G CAPEX = 45-55% of EBITDA + Shaleco earnings way more volatile than Industrial Gases"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1660764433084293123)  2023-05-22T21:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@UndervaluedOnG Probably one of the higher sharpe trades available in the market right now. Only qualifier is that the Electric Utilities are the ones that have sold off more than the Gas Utilities. $AEE $CMS $SRE $ES"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1662256229073182720)  2023-05-27T00:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@riskbreaker13 @UndervaluedOnG I read that $ES is getting out of its JV with $ORSTED on some of the wind projects on rising costs. It is not clear if the the regulators are willing to allow Utes to pass on the rising costs to customers. cc: @StrapCap - he is an expert on all matters Utes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1662499533710819328)  2023-05-27T16:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@UndervaluedOnG @marketplunger1 You'll find that many former players if given an extended run can be fantastic commentators. For instance whenever US Open Tennis has had players like Andre Agassi or Boris Becker comment their observations have been at a level much higher than McEnroe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1663581849644417026)  2023-05-30T16:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"I have to admit I have never been a fan of $KMI but as a short-term trade the risk-reward looks quite decent at current levels. WARNING: Not investment advice. DYODD. Caveat Emptor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1663920079069691910)  2023-05-31T14:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@NiceQuarterGuys @MLPguy LOL. Yes for sure. What I am struggling with is this: 1) Rich sucked cash out of $KMP and then screwed LPs by having $KMI acquire it and sent them a massive tax bill 2) Kelcy sucked cash out of all his MLPs and then did back-door cuts on them all Which one is more HOF-worthy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1664402072610000896)  2023-06-01T22:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@JerryCap FWIW assuming WACC of 8.75% $TTC discounting revenue CAGR of 6.5% and a LT EBITDA margin of about 15.5%. They did rather well on revenue in Q1 (+23%) but not so great on EBITDA margin (14.3%). Let's see what Q2 has in store. Sub-$98 risk-reward interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1666231368693559296)  2023-06-06T23:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@willrayvalentin Until it goes up Buy $FANG for $127 and Sell it for $132. Repeat as many times as markets will allow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1669870491492835328)  2023-06-17T00:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ValueStockGeek @mailboxmoney6 LOL. You don't even have your facts right and you are out making this statements. Here is a chart of Fidelity Magellan vs. S&P from 12/31/1987 to 12/31/1990 - approximating the last three years of Lynch's tenure: +228 bps per annum"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1678427477708816385)  2023-07-10T16:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ValueStockGeek @mailboxmoney6 I charted the NAV of Fidelity Magellan. Therefore the performance you see (+228 bps/yr) is AFTER FEES. As for the "same picture" quip - that is what happens when you have high correlation. I don't think the debate was whether Lynch's returns were correlated to the S&P or not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1678452263843504142)  2023-07-10T17:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Whereyat955 TBH $KMI has been somewhat disappointing relative to (say) $WMB. Its up about 8% which isnt shabby in an absolute sense but other midstream names have done better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1678958515937767429)  2023-07-12T02:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ZmansEnrgyBrain @Toronto242M $BP (via their deal for Archaea last year) $CLNE (downstream player - has deals with $TTE & $BP) $KMI have been making acquisitions though not a big % of EBITDA yet $OPAL (landfill & dairy RNG + downstream) $AMTX (mostly dairy RNG) $WM $RSG $WCN should have potential"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1679724120341086210)  2023-07-14T05:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@EnergyCynic @NiceQuarterGuys Absurdly high. Here is some justification: 1) $MMP - a non-diversified business suffered a 15% drop in cash flows during COVID vs. a 14% drop in refined product demand 2) So its beta is effectively = [--] 3) If Risk Prem = 5.5% and Risk-free = 4.0% Cost of Equity = 9.5%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1681843626152714240)  2023-07-20T01:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@InvestInAssets $LIN $GWW $DHR $FAST $WCN $COST $APH etc. etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1682097269586243584)  2023-07-20T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"It appears (so far) that the market dislike the sale multiple for $TRP asset sale but the said multiple is viewed as bullish for $KMI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1683502876822257664)  2023-07-24T15:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@IFB_podcast You just told us. $COST $AMZN $BRK.B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1683611283281813505)  2023-07-24T22:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$VLO expected to report earnings in a few hours. Consensus has them printing $3.24 billion in EBITDA. My own novice model is predicting about $3.05 billion with refining margin of a shade under $17/bbl. Regardless Q3'23 is off to a good start with cracks where they are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1684504673246679040)  2023-07-27T10:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(6/13) By contrast $TRP.TO's Liquids Pipelines EBITDA of C$1.37 bn represents 11.8% return on Segment Net PP&E - a [---] bps difference that argues for a lower overall multiple on $TRP.TO's Liquids business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1684864172050575360)  2023-07-28T09:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(7/13) Given this difference in earnings power per dollar of capital invested I would peg the multiple on the SpinCo at 12.0x or a 2.0x discount to $ENB.TO FWIW $MMP trades at 12.0x EBITDA as well and in fact traded well below that prior to $OKE's take-out offer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1684864174252584960)  2023-07-28T09:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(8/13) Equally important is the question of how much debt will the SpinCo carry at inception $EPD $MMP $MPLX $PAA all operate at 3.5x or lower. It is hard to argue for much more than 4.0x Debt/EBITDA at SpinCo imho. This means SpinCo starts with about C$5.5 bn of Debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1684864176072843264)  2023-07-28T09:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(9/13) The idea that spinning the Liquids Pipelines business will allow $TRP.TO's remaining assets to trade at a higher multiple may not come to fruition since $TRP.TO is currently levered 6.0x EBITDA. RemainCo will be more levered if SpinCo starts out at 4.0x Debt/EBITDA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1684864177884835840)  2023-07-28T09:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(10/13) Also what's the future for a low-growth (or perhaps no-growth) business - even if it is of a high quality Look at $MMP - high quality regulated inflation-protected high ROIC but zero growth - getting taken out at 12.0x by $OKE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1684864179684188160)  2023-07-28T09:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(11/13) I wouldn't be surprised if SpinCo becomes a target too. $EPD $KMI $ET etc. would love to own SpinCo. I'd even argue that companies with growth opportunities like $TRGP could make a bid for SpinCo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1684864181521289216)  2023-07-28T09:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(12/13) If SpinCo wants to flourish as a standalone company it'll have to think beyond 2-3% growth that $TRP.TO is referencing. Two ideas: 1) Acquire other Liquids businesses in the US - e.g. $PAA $MPLX cut costs 2) Expand into LNG e.g. acquire $NEXT or Venture Global"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1684864183442272257)  2023-07-28T09:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@PythiaR $KMI used to own TMX and Cochin. And if $TRP.TO and $ENB.TO can buy US Natural Gas Pipelines ( $CPGX and $SE respectively) why can't US companies acquire Canadian pipelines Sure market power considerations will be a factor but I doubt it will be a major issue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1684973446860873728)  2023-07-28T17:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$MPC reports earnings in a few hrs. Consensus has them doing $4.06 bn of EBITDA of which Midstream (using $MPLX as proxy) is about $1.49 bn. So Refining EBITDA is expected to be $2.57 bn. FWIW my (novice) model has them doing $2.77 bn in Refining EBITDA + $1.50 bn in Midstream"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1686263259840819200)  2023-08-01T06:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$MPLX now run-rating $6.1 billion of annualized EBITDA with leverage at 3.5x and Free Cash Flow sufficient to cover distributions by 1.40x - great execution by Hennigan and team. Just wish they had contd. with buybacks. $600+ mm of post-divi FCF during 1H'23 - lots of ammo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1686425389168578578)  2023-08-01T17:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"It hasn't been a banging earnings season so far for Midstream companies. With the exception of $MPLX no one has beaten consensus - $KMI $EPD $DTM $ENLC all missing or barely inline. $ET is up next - let's see if they can buck the trend and put up a good Q"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1686666324423118848)  2023-08-02T09:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@CapitalObserver @TheStalwart The guy was just alarmist - overplayed his brand-name. He tried raising some alarm bells about Chenieres ( $LNG ) issue with NESHAP w/o any knowledge. That being said Europe isnt exactly flourishing either - Germany PMIs are as s****y as theyve been since the GFC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1686804160069705728)  2023-08-02T18:20Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$WMB out with a 2.5% beat vs. Consensus. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter came in at $1.61 billion vs. Consensus of $1.57 billion - Solid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1687017851591577600)  2023-08-03T08:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$TRGP - awful miss. Q2'23 Adj. EBITDA = $789.1 mm vs. Cons. of $833 mm (-5.3%) 1H'23 EBITDA = $1.73 bn and full-year guidance of $3.5 to $3.7 bn (unch) Expect questions on how FY guide can be met with 1H running short $149 mm share repo during Q2 & two more plants announced"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1687049529634492416)  2023-08-03T10:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$MMP showing folks how it's done. Reported EBITDA of $385.9 mm vs. Consensus of $354 mm - 9% Beat Raised Guidance - Now expecting nearly $290 mm of FCF after distributions. Would make merger dynamics very interesting if $OKE whiffs in a few days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1687146814045396992)  2023-08-03T17:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$LNG putting up an excellent quarter with Adjusted EBITDA of $1.86 bn vs. Consensus of $1.64 bn - 13.3% Beat Modest raise to full-year EBITDA ($100 mm)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1687148390231244800)  2023-08-03T17:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@mmm_btus Theyve taken a large equity stake (30%) in $SRE Port Arthur. So theyre still very much in the game"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1687354401198133248)  2023-08-04T06:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$OKE reported adjusted EBITDA of $971 mm for Q2'23 - beating Consensus by 3.6%. Raised full-year guidance by 2.5% (excl. the impact of the Medford settlement)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1688669816956088321)  2023-08-07T21:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@TSCGllc Why would $OKE take on an additional $700 mm to $1500 mm debt (assuming all cash sweetener) or 2.5%-5.0% dilution (if all equity) It will either undo all the work on deleveraging or cause payout to remain elevated. If deal breaks $OKE can go after $DTM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1688698233944510464)  2023-08-07T23:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@GHBurnsCFA @MLPguy If $EQT $SLB are sterile what would you call $TRP - which pejoratively stands for trap. Certainly investors must feel trapped now that $TRP has proceeded to incinerate stock gains over the last [--] years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1688807737998622721)  2023-08-08T07:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$WES out with a Miss and Reduce Q. Adjusted EBITDA of $488 mm missed Consensus of $498 mm by about 2.0% Full-year EBITDA guidance lowered 5.0% on slower-than-expected volume ramp due to better-than-expected well results in the Delaware Basin🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1689059871889514496)  2023-08-08T23:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@EnergyPeddler @markfny $TRGP Rising GORs in the Permian $XOM $CVX $PXD main customers Well-head to Dock NGL infrastructure Smaller in size vs. (say) $EPD or $ET Corp structure = better governance CEO and CFO are good DYODD Not Investment Advice Caveat Emptor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1690070883245740032)  2023-08-11T18:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Q2'23 Midstream Earnings Recap: $EPD = -2.8% $MMP = +9.0% $MPLX = +2.8% $PAA =+4.6% $ET = -2.3% $ENLC = -0.4% $WES = -1.9% $KMI = -0.7% $WMB = +2.5% $OKE = +3.6% $TRGP = -5.3% $LNG = +13.3% $DTM = -0.4% $TRP = -0.6% $ENB = +2.9% $PBA = -4.4% $KEY.TO = +13.5% $GEI.TO = -7.4%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1691527976213458944)  2023-08-15T19:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ENPH - one of the COVID + Energy Transition darlings has been smoked since November. Stock down nearly 65%. Great example of why valuation matters. The company has not been guilty of runaway spending and balance sheet is very clean as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1694733056223948850)  2023-08-24T15:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@StrapCap Oh they'll be around and get built - just not at the cost that they were advertised at. $4000/KW or higher is going to the norm and very likely that I am understating the long-run costs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1697563237729051017)  2023-09-01T10:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TimmyMcCarthy @PythiaR There are some differences though. $ET have been sticking to their midstream knitting ( $SEMG $ENBL $CEQP etc.) and in terms of looking at a pattern they've been taking out smaller competitors to drive cost reductions and possibly eliminate the prospect of price competition"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1699414320801563028)  2023-09-06T13:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@JerryCap I dont know about $AAPL but it was painfully obvious that $IBM was a dud when WEB bought it because a cursory look at Big Blues financials wouldve shown rising headcount stagnant revenues and rising debt levels. WEB makes mistakes too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1699758257634447531)  2023-09-07T12:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@EnergyCynic They are different cultures fwiw. Guyana was a British colony and its people are either of African or Indian origin (the Indians have a majority I think). Venezuela is more Latin in its culture"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1699962288680136805)  2023-09-08T01:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Does anyone have an explanation for what drove the move in $TMO from $510 to $533 within about half-an-hour earlier today Very odd for a mega-cap company to trade in such fashion. But no complaints - great day-trade if you could put one on and get out of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1702765834714730753)  2023-09-15T19:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@LeopoldHeinrich Your claim is not supported by actual data from some of the largest US refiners - $MPC and $VLO. Here are excerpts from [----] and [----] to demonstrate: I am sure you can calculate % yields from the excerpts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1703425255782400358)  2023-09-17T15:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@LeopoldHeinrich Gasoline Yield (2023 vs. 2019): $MPC = 51.5% vs. 48.6% $VLO = 48.5% vs. 47.1% $HFC = 53.0% vs. 52.0% Sweet Crude input (2023 vs. 2019): $MPC = 56.0% vs. 51.0% $VLO = 50.0% vs. 51.9% $HFC = 44.0% vs. 42.0% [--] yrs experience Facts and facts don't care about your feelings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1703467171781787781)  2023-09-17T17:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@dunbelievable 1) Inflation-indexed tariffs meant that growth wasnt capital intensive 2) Bought idle pipe out of restructuring and repurposed into crude oil service just in time for shale boom 3) Got rid of the GP at attractive px during GFC 4) Didnt issue much equity & repod shares"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1705065960116215826)  2023-09-22T03:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@TomLoughrey_LFE @ArjunNMurti The Permian is the worlds greatest gas play. And we havent even begun in the Eagle Ford dry gas window"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1706082553793261838)  2023-09-24T23:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$NEP = -20% $NEE = -8% Ouch Tough day to be a Renewables bull and an Oil & Gas bear. Having experienced a lot of ouching in the opposite direction during [----] I hope I can be forgiven if I indulge in some schadenfreude. And to sub some salt on the wounds $ENPH  50% YTD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1707137356132737278)  2023-09-27T20:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Allison_Good1 If the sell side were a source of objective & timely opinion one might hang their hat on their research output. Alas such has not been the case. Investors have been voting with their feet w.r.t to Renewables-focused stocks while sell-side has been generally bullish"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1707184003898302726)  2023-09-28T00:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@CapitalObserver @StrapCap @texecon @mailboxmoney6 Makes sense. What drives distribution growth for $NEP is CAFD. This figure is arrived at after deducting interest & principal repayment. So if rates are Debt-Service cost and CAFD . They will need bigger (or cheaper) acquisitions to drive same growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1707393438902079762)  2023-09-28T13:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@MLPguy I remember when their mutual fund was held up as the standard for investing in midstream i.e. don't invest in MLPs if you can help it invest only in C-corps and have at least 1/3 of your allocation in Utilities. It worked well from '15-'20 but has lagged miserably since then"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1707558903091765757)  2023-09-29T00:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@NiceQuarterGuys @MLPguy Their ownership of $NEE / $NEP I think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1707562465536471356)  2023-09-29T01:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@returnoncap Average measured over what timeframe Trying to understand the rate environment embedded in the average"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1707880409629929545)  2023-09-29T22:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"YTD MLPs have opened up a nice lead over the S&P. The $AMZX is 20.56% vs. 13.07% for the S&P However broader measures of Midstream perf haven't done as well: $AMEIX (75% C-Corps 25% MLPs) = +9.34% $AMUSX (US C-Corps + MLPs) = +13.85% Canadian Midstream dragging perf down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1708554374815899809)  2023-10-01T18:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@CapitalObserver Close to Book value levels here. If ROEs can stay above 11% this would be a good entry point. If ROEs print north of 12% - stock could run to $340+. [--] weeks to earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1708863075879706693)  2023-10-02T15:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Looks like $NEE and $NEP are the San Andreas fault that the entire Renewables industry is built upon - devastation all around but there may be some gems in the rubble. Which ones are they Would love to hear thoughts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1708872748137582623)  2023-10-02T15:53Z [----] followers, 17K engagements


"@CdnEngyAnalysis Hmmmnot even $BLX.TO They seemed like a quiet and conservative company but I know next to nothing about them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1708875604626415720)  2023-10-02T16:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@CdnEngyAnalysis Pretty soon it will be time to re-load on the refiners again $MPC sub-$120 $VLO sub-$115 good entry points. Some ways to go yet but could get there in a couple of weeks if cracks don't improve meaningfully (say $30/bbl on the USGC 5-3-2)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1709608706256617536)  2023-10-04T16:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@jasonfurman @tdgraff It is time to admit that the US is in between a rock and hard place. Cutting deficits abruptly risks a major recession and monetary easing (via Fed's purchases of USTs) may not do much for overall fiscal health. Therefore the only solution is to allow inflation to run hot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1709609610498228744)  2023-10-04T16:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@rbl1973 Great deal for $COP and $SU.TO. Not sure if the same can be said for $TTE. Selling assets to lower your emissions profile sounds like putting the cart before the horse. Giving up low decline low reserve uncertainty assets for potentially uncertain returns (e.g. Suriname) 🤷"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1709693284090536372)  2023-10-04T22:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ZmansEnrgyBrain Leverage now well above 1.0x EBITDA at $80/bbl and nearly 4.0x FCF. Underwriting deals at $80/bbl is not a good look - where is the margin of safety Also high net debt-to-FCF could mean debt reduction takes priority over divis & buybacks when stock is 10% FCF yield. Not good"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1709709607285694521)  2023-10-04T23:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ZmansEnrgyBrain What is it as a multiple of FCF. It is FCF that provides the source for all other decisions. While dividends may still be on the table it comes at the cost of carrying high leverage. What happens in a recession/low-oil px environment Who is to say that priorities won't shift"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1709720543895646641)  2023-10-05T00:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Quick take on $XOM Q3'23 Earnings Guide (8-K) & excl. MTM: Upstream: $6.1 bn (+32% Q/Q) WTI/Brent: +11% q/q HHub: +14% TTF: -3.5% Refining: $3.3 bn (+43% Q/Q) USGC 5-3-2: +34% q/q Chemicals: $0.3 bn (-62% Q/Q) Specialty: $0.6 bn (-14% Q/Q) Overall: Solid numbers bar Chem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1709933244526088573)  2023-10-05T14:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@WilliamLaceyYYC @Gugo907 The implied discount rate is the IRR on the stock - not the cost of equity. IF your oil/gas price assumptions are correct you should make that kind of return consistently. The implied IRR also tells management whether they should repo shares or invest more in reserves & prod"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1709990232806895688)  2023-10-05T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"(1/3) So $XOM / $PXD merger rumors doing the rounds again with a rumored price tag of $60 billion. If true this would imply a take-out px of about $232/sh of $PXD or 8% vs. last close. Premium value = $4.2 billion The key will be synergies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1710116202654142936)  2023-10-06T02:14Z [----] followers, 11K engagements


"(2/3) $PXD G&A running about $350 mm. $XOM should be able to cut 80% of that or $280 mm. Annual LOE at $PXD running at $1.9 billion. If $XOM can cut 10% that would be $190 mm more. So overall synergies = $470 mm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1710116206534152259)  2023-10-06T02:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"(3/3) If we assume these synergies/savings to be low-risk and sustainable we may be able to apply an 8% discount rate for a total synergy value of $5.9 bn. At the rumored price $PXD investors would capture 70% of value leaving $XOM investors with a paltry $0.44/sh (or 0.4%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1710116208845193604)  2023-10-06T02:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"At $75/$3 deck $PXD generates $15/sh of FCF or 7% FCF yield at last close. $FANG should generate $13/sh of FCF at this deck. It trades at 9% FCF. If large Permian operators are getting taken out at 6.5% FCF can $FANG re-rate to 8.0% FCF yield - if so price should be $162/sh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1710127243794473052)  2023-10-06T02:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@WillOil I'm not questioning the inventory depth at $PXD. But $PXD does trade somewhat rich at about 7% FCF yield (at $75/bbl WTI and $3/mmbtu gas). So some of the value of inventory depth is already reflected in the stock and doesn't necessarily accrue to $XOM investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1710135870945182055)  2023-10-06T03:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@peter_mantas Have you looked at their balance sheet How will they do a buyback w/o further worsening of the balance sheet $MKC not worth much beyond $55 imho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1710353385411457337)  2023-10-06T17:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@JerryCap Stock implying: Perpetual Growth = 1.75% EBITDA Margin = 26.0% CAPEX-to-D&A = 145% (been this way for a while and seems somewhat high vs. (say) $KO) Cost of Equity = 6.0% (Beta = [----] Rf ERP same as others)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1710827570449535278)  2023-10-08T01:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@JerryCap Stock implying: Perpetual Growth = 3.0% EBITDA Margin = 16.5% CAPEX-to-D&A = 130% Cost of Equity = 6.0% (Beta = 0.45) Leverage is too high - nearly 4x EBITDA - leaves little flexibility to do shareholder-friendly things imho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Suicide95518428/status/1710828561836232707)  2023-10-08T01:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

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