#  @StevenShadduck Steve Steve posts on X about $whcax, $whc, debt, $hcc the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1427449498515775491/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] +1,418% - [--] Month [------] +67% - [--] Months [-------] +19% - [--] Year [-------] -64% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1427449498515775491/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +18% - [--] Month [--] +11% - [--] Months [---] -18% - [--] Year [---] -40% ### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1427449498515775491/followers)  - [--] Week [---] +1.40% - [--] Month [---] +4.40% - [--] Months [---] +13% - [--] Year [---] +44% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1427449498515775491/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [stocks](/list/stocks) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [countries](/list/countries) [currencies](/list/currencies) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [us election](/list/us-election) [nfl](/list/nfl) **Social topic influence** [$whcax](/topic/$whcax), [$whc](/topic/$whc), [debt](/topic/debt), [$hcc](/topic/$hcc), [$val](/topic/$val), [$sgml](/topic/$sgml), [money](/topic/money), [$btu](/topic/$btu), [$whitf](/topic/$whitf), [$nrp](/topic/$nrp) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@triangulate](/creator/undefined) [@yellowlablife](/creator/undefined) [@crowdturtle](/creator/undefined) [@realcorycortez](/creator/undefined) [@blondesnmoney](/creator/undefined) [@johnhempton](/creator/undefined) [@captainroyen](/creator/undefined) [@tradedollarnut](/creator/undefined) [@ancientsion](/creator/undefined) [@miketaylor1972](/creator/undefined) [@boringville](/creator/undefined) [@dpgibson](/creator/undefined) [@mfwarder](/creator/undefined) [@indifferentia](/creator/undefined) [@privatedataguy](/creator/undefined) [@ds4scanner7](/creator/undefined) [@modustollens4](/creator/undefined) [@bysl](/creator/undefined) [@realhagetaka](/creator/undefined) [@respeculator](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)](/topic/$hcc) [Validity (VAL)](/topic/$val) [Sigma Lithium Corporation Common Shares (SGML)](/topic/$sgml) [Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU)](/topic/$btu) [Tidewater, Inc. (TDW)](/topic/$tdw) [VALE S.A. (VALE)](/topic/$vale) [Golar LNG Ltd (GLNG)](/topic/$glng) [Transocean LTD. (RIG)](/topic/$rig) [Barnes & Noble Education, Inc (BNED)](/topic/$bned) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC)](/topic/$soc) [Cleveland-Cliffs, Inc. (CLF)](/topic/$clf) [MX Token (MX)](/topic/$mx) [Lithium (LITH)](/topic/lithium) [BHP Group Limited (BHP)](/topic/$bhp) [Paramount Global (PARA)](/topic/$para) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "@indifferentia_ Yeah bots are going to be the death of Twitter if nothing changes" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1678207859635412992) 2023-07-10T01:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@KEDM_COM I think if you look at the type of bonds being issued you'll see the Treasury is selling oodles of [--] years and very few 10-30 durations. At the same time they require a lot of orgs to hold longer dated maturities - they could stabilize end of curve rates via issuance rebalance" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1678422539939241984) 2023-07-10T15:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@indifferentia_ Yeah I mean you want to spend the time wisely so preparing for more production makes sense. I have no position here might be interesting after their Q124 earnings call if they remain on track at that point as most dilution will have resolved likely" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1686583378206752768) 2023-08-02T03:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@indifferentia_ @StevenC07845534 And it's more dire because that application isn't getting considered in 2024:" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1687669293519925248) 2023-08-05T03:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@indifferentia_ @SWAbrams I think you underestimate the number and pull of the countries against it" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1688002085034344448) 2023-08-06T01:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@boringville I too enjoy the Koala and spec'd on a position. Hope they hit lithium 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1689329455355883521) 2023-08-09T17:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@private_dataguy @xEBITDA @Mike_Taylor1972 No doubt a lot of stupid stuff has been thrown out but I will say they do need capital here of some form. About $30m on hand they owe $20m on Ironton and the revolver is short term with a brutal high interest rate you wouldn't want to draw on" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1689977439227682816) 2023-08-11T12:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "What to be long in a yield blowout/inflation environment Companies that: [--]. Generate high margins / cash [--]. Have tangible assets with high replacement costs For me it means my biggest holdings are: $X - Steel mills $TDW and $VAL - offshore oil $JOE - prime empty acreage" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1692194197397176820) 2023-08-17T15:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@anjprd Bonds available yes but at what interest rate Their $40m insider financing is SOFR+7.5% They revolver ratchets to over 20%. Cost of capital directly impacts bottom line" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1692541102136430821) 2023-08-18T14:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@anjprd I trust you know who Dan Gibson is if you're a $PCT investor he considered the soft+7.5 a sweet heart deal between insider and company:" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1692543800407679220) 2023-08-18T14:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@LightOneFire @INArteCarloDoss @PauloMacro Consecutive quarters of negative GDP We're not even close. Consumer spending is strong unemployment low manufacturing and shipping reaccelerating. Either need a huge system shock or substantially higher rates to slow this machine down" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1693001438677422503) 2023-08-19T20:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Mike_Taylor1972 How can you call this a good raise They don't even know how much they will get from it - just that at the end they will pay $75m to Sylebra and $125 to whoever they hope they can sell notes to. Literally don't have a buyer for the paper or a rate on it" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1693803950628028881) 2023-08-22T01:55Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@boringville @BSdestroyer_ @bysl But again what's the rush for that Does it matter what the stock is trading at when they don't need any type of financing Some things sort themselves out over time" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1694465039569219601) 2023-08-23T21:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@boringville @BSdestroyer_ @bysl They have signed JVs that have paid them multi-millions. They reconfirmed revenue guidance full year. JVs don't give millions over for nothing but talk" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1694466440470909046) 2023-08-23T21:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@BSdestroyer_ @boringville @bysl $6.9m revenue last quarter where do you think that came from" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1694467445270978842) 2023-08-23T21:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@trumpNOmore333 @boringville @bysl Very different setups. Was long PCT until it overextend sold and bought puts now covered those. Made 106% long and just about 70% on the puts. I'll take a position when it misprices again or meets 100% production and I'll hold long for a decade" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1694557827564519429) 2023-08-24T03:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@boringsaltville Yeah uranium is a cult-like group on Twitter. But also has been a raging bull market. I do think his writing on the paper short oil trade was strong and I'm up 40-50% on $val and $tdw that he put me onto. The vax stuff is really really extreme" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1700597286009475212) 2023-09-09T19:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@boringsaltville $val has super valuable rigs that they contract super poorly. $rig far superior management. You could maybe prove me wrong but I've only ever seen him say conditions are set up for a possible squeeze not that one will necessarily occur. Supply/demand makes it hard to dispute" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1700606042688901433) 2023-09-09T20:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "$PCT remains solidly behind schedule again now outside management's range for performance testing. We haven't even seen 50% met - let alone the 100% [--] day test that was guided to be done by the end of Aug. I have cash ready to be long but the risk here keeps me away for now" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1701302959047405743) 2023-09-11T18:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@holdyourwinners Yields have been blowing them out - the balance sheet for $PCT is awful. Equity was essentially issued via convertibles and it dropped 15% more. R/R is bad with -70% on the table from a second default due to the inability to operate at scale for consistent periods of time" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1701437256949453001) 2023-09-12T03:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@holdyourwinners $orgn is past it's major revaluation - I'm long at [----] didn't bottom tick it obviously but not a huge hole. It has a rock solid balance sheet and has no long term debt or bond holders to perform for. $pct is a $0 if it doesn't operate based on it's debt picture" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1701437813571428844) 2023-09-12T03:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@boringsaltville I didn't put it in Twitter but sold 50% of my $val this morning at $75.35 right before the selloff" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1702056271539532052) 2023-09-13T20:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Fitz_FF do you think keeping Cam Akers makes sense Starting TE is 'Muth and Kincaid is on the waivers and I'm considering dropping him to get Kincaid as an alternative as 'Muths use is brutal so far" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1704345983289635110) 2023-09-20T04:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@RollTribe1987 @patrick_cantlay @RyderCupUSA @rydercup @RyderCupEurope Rory is the one who made a thing of it - was way out of his way and it's not even close" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1708289056025485456) 2023-10-01T01:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$pct was trading over $8.50 at the time of this post. Today it's working really hard on holding $5. Somewhere around $4.50 I may buy calls as I expect Gibson to continue shoveling money into the furnace. The risk/reward has been garbage on this name but gambling is fun. $PCT remains solidly behind schedule again now outside management's range for performance testing. We haven't even seen 50% met - let alone the 100% [--] day test that was guided to be done by the end of Aug. I have cash ready to be long but the risk here keeps me away for now https://t.co/pYwd69nwa3 $PCT remains solidly behind" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1709252175564538329) 2023-10-03T17:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@John_Hempton @_dpgibson If $pct fails Sylebra likely has to close its doors as no client would look at the risk management process involved here already and trust keeping money invested. That tells me that the furnace shoveling continues and gives upside potential" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1709260594765803610) 2023-10-03T17:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@AndrewErickson_ @DBro_FFB @Fitz_FF if any of you see this I'm curious on trade advice for .5ppr: Give: Ceedee Lamb Get: Debo + Rhamondre Rhamondre becomes my flex behind Jacobs/Achane. Debo slots in with Ridley and Tank Dell as top WR options. Seems weak for a [--] wr setup" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1709585692878148030) 2023-10-04T15:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Bought back into $sruuf today at $15.77 spot price hasn't changed yet we saw a nearly 15% drop in fund value - re-pricing happening from paper trades is opportunity for "easy" alpha as it will revert back towards NAV unless spot #uranium drops" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1709709139008516431) 2023-10-04T23:16Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@PaulM81587676 The fund has a set NAV from its underlying material holdings. Sometimes the price it trades at can vary significantly from NAV - my entrance at $15.77 was nearly a -10% discount to NAV. Either uranium spot price needed to materially drop or selling was overdone. Not complex" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1710484835809050703) 2023-10-07T02:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@_triangulate_ @elonmusk Well there's the "for you" on the left that's personal. The "trending" appears be to country related as yours says Canada but mine is US. The the news tab just has [--] topics TOTAL for me. It's bonkers" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1711217156375876051) 2023-10-09T03:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@xEBITDA @Moethegreat31 @private_dataguy @Mike_Taylor1972 Hard to know. They clearly have delays. Big question is does O1 work at some point this year If it does it's a buy. If it doesn't then you're trying to value "bottle caps" and that somehow O2 will work despite O1 not. Lack of clarity around O1 is causing capitulation imo" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1711741487489090028) 2023-10-10T13:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@_triangulate_ Seem to have a pretty narrow focus on incremental supply when the real issue that could send things haywire is geopolitical risk. The balance of production and consumption is more skewed in uranium than almost every other material. What spot has started long term may carry on" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1713261452587356306) 2023-10-14T18:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@_triangulate_ I don't have any current positions outside of the SMR space. But a quick glance around the globe shows massive geopolitical risk and exposure to that is something to seriously consider. Incremental supply as a focus runs the risk of missing the big picture" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1713262354568187988) 2023-10-14T18:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@STEVEWA10865446 @SleeperHQ Check the Patriots depth chart pal" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1713583410810155380) 2023-10-15T15:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@shimblum Yeah reflective of the risk the bondholders could have asked for all $200m+ instead took $50m to build their guarantee account. It's only a buy when milestones get met originally thought that could be share price $15-20 might actually be $8-12" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1717536837349061090) 2023-10-26T13:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@_triangulate_ @Buy100ozSilver Well it's at least possible to dollarize and be limited vs trying to do a gold standard which would be the real libertarian take imo. It also has modern examples to look at like Ecuador to sell people on what growth could come from stability" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1728188586561015899) 2023-11-24T23:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@_triangulate_ @ZJ1111111 @realcorycortez Yes that was the cash "buyout" figure then got the standard immediate vesting of all stock awards and removal of restrictions. It's the "we're firing you so here's cash to agree to not sue or disparage the company"" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1730768975368220832) 2023-12-02T02:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@BenVB11 @_triangulate_ @ZJ1111111 @realcorycortez I mean we honestly don't know anything here. But few topics: [-----] comp around the corner -red flags around bond raises during outage issues -capital heavy future and Sylebra seemed to be doing a lot of the funding work already Maybe just not proficient for this stage" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1730796066642039152) 2023-12-02T03:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "This happened over [--] years ago. Crazy to see the BS these type of accounts spin out for engagement. $wfc" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1731846411371577383) 2023-12-05T01:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@John_Hempton Clearly talking chemistry. Any chemical process that can be done small can be done large but it could be a very long road with potentially multiple failed designs at scale. Asking if this is the team to pull this off is definitely the right question though" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1732587315560583236) 2023-12-07T02:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@_triangulate_ @Richard89022768 Taxable income by a fixed sum (straight line depreciation) every year. It actually saves the company money by reducing taxes or creating NOLs in the early years like you see here" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1738344886896586859) 2023-12-22T23:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "2024 setup: $cve $val $tdw $rig & $jrngf for oil/energy $whc.ax & $hcc for coal $laac $sgml (short term play) $tmc $afmjf $pmet & $vale in the mining/material space $igic $pct & $orgn in the misfit/punt plays Position to add: China exposure. Let's run '23 back 🤣😂" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1741559430980800814) 2023-12-31T20:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@_triangulate_ @Namzes_G It's all about met this time around. Could see a pullback on weak divvy announcement but acquisition can close as early as April and that cash flow is getting priced in" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1742765295347884328) 2024-01-04T04:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@calvinfroedge Taiwan election in a week China has done this for basically every election. Not abnormal. Only takes one time to be different but this isn't abnormal in of itself" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1743481491387015438) 2024-01-06T03:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@fade_bears Hahaha the depths you have to probe to get any info on these guys" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1744484351310434450) 2024-01-08T22:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@_triangulate_ @EnergyCredit1 Mind boggling to see a 3.3b market cap on a business with under $400m in debt 1.6b in cash and a forward PE of 4-5x. Mr. Market is asleep at the wheel here" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1749619987755499959) 2024-01-23T02:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@blondesnmoney I read some reports on $ogi two weeks ago in the $1.30's and I shelved it as I just didn't know enough. Trading $1.80's now. They had an investment of C$124m at C$3.22/share valuation ($2.40 USD) in Q4 to fund ops and acquisitions which is what peaked my interest" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1749840549312356775) 2024-01-23T17:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@realcorycortez @John_Hempton @_dpgibson And being clear I'm FAR from a bull on $pct here. I have a Sub $3k call spread I'm exactly flat on. I wouldn't long equity here but the BK claim is flat out erroneous and had to be pushed back on" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1750377339219787808) 2024-01-25T04:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@ds4scanner7 @TetonCapital1 @tradedollarnut @RGlavinich If the Biden administration doesn't allow exports of LNG that'll be a small offset - the swirling dance of factors are what make this so devilishly hard to predict. And fun lol I went long $btu equity and options 1/12-1/18 and +11% on equity and closed options+31.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1751092085548015985) 2024-01-27T03:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ds4scanner7 They have simply lagged far too much for their balance sheet thanks to Elliotts selling giving some space to the upside as that overhang clears. But I don't see myself allocating meaningful capital until Centurion is closer" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1751668813395882432) 2024-01-28T18:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Built a decent position in $pypl as a bet on a stronger consumer/economy than people are pricing. Monetizing Venmo and the sheer scale of transaction volume handled globally gives them wide leeway on a turnaround - and while it might not be this quarter it's a '24 story" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1754880817187221550) 2024-02-06T14:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Holding only [--] earnings trade this cycle: $pypl Used options early but closed the last calls yesterday (unfortunately in the morning vs at closing 🤦) and riding equity exclusively. Long [---] @ $60.93" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1755230111488459237) 2024-02-07T14:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@tradedollarnut @mfwarder I don't think anyone disputes Q1 is weak but again 7.5-8.5 met after only [---] in Q1 + DCF on Centurion + EV sub $3b and you have a macro shift to the upside. Tide is rising sure Q1 is low but you've got a strong balance sheet going into expansion mode with Wards Well etc" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1755621315690528797) 2024-02-08T15:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@jbulltard1 I suppose you said this about $meta bulls also" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1756340714407956759) 2024-02-10T15:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Are Bulltard et al. just dumb or short and trying to spread FUD $nycb" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1756358060690280770) 2024-02-10T16:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Patience is going to be rewarded here Q1 is going to be about how much they beat - not whether they meet guidance. Beat and raise leads to $75+ in May. $pypl In the last [--] quarters $pypl has beaten guides/estimates 10/12 and the two misses were a combined $.044. Anyone surprised by a lower guide than the street hasn't tracked this company. https://t.co/XTiBJpAbPP In the last [--] quarters $pypl has beaten guides/estimates 10/12 and the two misses were a combined $.044. Anyone surprised by a lower guide than the street hasn't tracked this company. https://t.co/XTiBJpAbPP" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1757088344134021238) 2024-02-12T17:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Hey @espn where is "First place #Timberwolves rout 2nd place #Clippers"" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1757409354205032840) 2024-02-13T14:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Exited my $flme / $soc at $12.45 this week. It's an interesting situation and could prove super profitable but I simply don't know enough about their capital position with the PIPE coming up short so going to watch for a bit vs have skin in the game" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1758599680689099102) 2024-02-16T21:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "13f highlight from Praetorian Capital and @hkuppy is the continuation of $amrk accumulation. 1/1/23 position = [--] shares 12/31/23 = [-------] for $31m Profiles as a precious metals seller to both wholesale and retail commercial lender and some smaller services like storage" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1759243249103843721) 2024-02-18T15:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TenHagEra Man I hope you're just emotional and not serious. Clearly leading studs up into the player - doesn't matter if he touches the ball" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1759279783140118624) 2024-02-18T18:12Z [---] followers, 56.4K engagements "@realcorycortez @_triangulate_ Most of these had terrible balance sheets on the edge of BK but thermal coal went to the moon post-covid and they all were able to pay off debt and recapitalize. The boom from that faded as everyone looked at them and either believes coal is dying in [--] years or has ESG qualms" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1759401508771131617) 2024-02-19T02:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@realcorycortez @_triangulate_ Market has mis-priced the cash generation ability of the coking/met group in with the thermal guys and whc is just moving into met on large scale via acquisition so puts them in that crowd going forward" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1759401850380386398) 2024-02-19T02:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Strong results from one of my core holdings in $val. Nice capital return goals / BB increase. Would expect to see a [--] handle soon and potentially three digits left of the decimal by year end at $75-95 range oil $VAL out early with strong earnings -Increased total contract backlog to $3.9Bn+ representing a nearly 60% increase from [--] months ago -Increase in the Company's share repurchase program to $600 million from $300 million -Repurchased $50M of shares in 4Q $200M for year https://t.co/81OIGOfeuV $VAL out early with strong earnings -Increased total contract backlog to $3.9Bn+ representing" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1760503044309946878) 2024-02-22T03:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@finchat_io Almost like anyone can cherry pick a single data point to make a bigger case $pypl" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1760835364019638768) 2024-02-23T01:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Mike_Taylor1972 @John_Hempton Looking at the last year of this vs the market I don't think this is the brag you think it is" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1761124361795142075) 2024-02-23T20:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@FordWealth @Mike_Taylor1972 @John_Hempton Comparing $pct to $nvda definitely makes you seem like a rational intelligent investor" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1761128483332255969) 2024-02-23T20:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@FordWealth @Mike_Taylor1972 @John_Hempton No I'm wondering why Mike is preening his feathers about a giant L Years of time and thousands in losses and maybe just maybe hopeful that something changes by Q3" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1761129873479741529) 2024-02-23T20:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Archie_155 @FordWealth @Mike_Taylor1972 @John_Hempton Ummm I also said exactly what they would do about the debt - it is basic math. Silimiar basic math shows the facility hasn't run at 10% of nameplate for a single month and the equity is down significantly because of it. https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1750339201978044871t=-642FfYy_anDkUK9JaCBTA&s=19 @John_Hempton @_dpgibson Couple of things on $pct: [--]. Restricted cash with trustee is $200m. Total port authority bonds are $249.5m so incremental $50m left to retire the milestone issue. [--]. $160m unrestricted cash + $150m revolver can" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1762113767419019298) 2024-02-26T13:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Wow a serious buy right there for $rig. I've got $5 in $val for each $1 in $rig and think that's about the right balance. Damn $5m insider buy at $RIG offshore getting spicy @CorneliaLake / @hkuppy https://t.co/DECTRZG77m Damn $5m insider buy at $RIG offshore getting spicy @CorneliaLake / @hkuppy https://t.co/DECTRZG77m" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1763355030608806396) 2024-03-01T00:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Closed 1/3 of my open $btu to add a substantial amount to $igic at $12.05. PE of [--] while growing premiums just about 20% annually - phenomenal value in the insurance space" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1763594970055721063) 2024-03-01T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@onion61314 One party liquidating a position in a relatively illiquid market creates opportunity" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1763596368977727951) 2024-03-01T16:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@John_Hempton Apes are the ideal counterparty" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1763642357532991588) 2024-03-01T19:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@_triangulate_ @KevinGarduno14 @realhagetaka Obviously as they make cash they'll keep doing capital return - but they didn't allocate any additional cash and therefore you need to look at PCI + Thermal as their biggest product mixes and calc future cash flows. Not simply look at Elliott" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1763999802105151990) 2024-03-02T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@realcorycortez It has a sub [--] forward PE and had FCF of $4.2b in '23 $22b cash on hand $10b allocated to BB and a market cap of $64b. We're looking at very different things" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1764079530929422840) 2024-03-03T00:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@realcorycortez I'm personally rolling weekly covered calls on my equity because I don't see a catalyst for a sustained gain until Q1 results not sure if I'd do options on it but I guess it depends on your risk tolerance. I generally stick to equity and only do minor option plays" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1764141316642885913) 2024-03-03T04:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@realcorycortez I prefer laac for a few reasons: -already in production -lower cost region for operating -argentina stabilization angle with increased capital flow" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1764500692541075783) 2024-03-04T03:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@realcorycortez Argentina has been experiencing capital flight for years because of rampant inflation and argentines essentially run a black market and hold USD for daily activities. Their entire economy has been undermined but with Milei they are seeing reduced govt and balanced budgets " [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1764646065603494063) 2024-03-04T13:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Was annoying to see my #lithium stocks down on the day while spot market keeps moving higher. Not smart enough to know what $alb is going to do with the $2b raise but have to think we're on the cusp of some significant M&A across the industry" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1764828176331448591) 2024-03-05T01:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$70m for 15% of the development at Pastos Grandes values it at $466m 👀 Crazy to see a 770m market cap on this name when the industry is valuing the development at 446m. Cauchar-Olaroz is worth a hell of a lot more than the $330m difference. $laac Partners matter. @Lithium_ARG & @GanfengOfficial continue to work together. Good news for both parties & for #Argentina #lithium development. $LAAC https://t.co/h20vsKTRCR Partners matter. @Lithium_ARG & @GanfengOfficial continue to work together. Good news for both parties & for #Argentina #lithium development. $LAAC https://t.co/h20vsKTRCR" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1765037546776744446) 2024-03-05T15:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Alexa show me "exit liquidity" $envx Mind boggling to see how Marc Cohodes and Reyes line the sheep up for slaughter. @indifferentia_ https://t.co/BnVbSTV4D5 Mind boggling to see how Marc Cohodes and Reyes line the sheep up for slaughter. @indifferentia_ https://t.co/BnVbSTV4D5" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1766226795613823399) 2024-03-08T22:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CaptainRoyen It's a 34% EV premium to $whc who is getting their hands on significant met production next month and will have two full years of resulting cash flows before Centurion earns $1. There's long term value in $btu but the price point isn't sexy here compared to others" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1766469962648920356) 2024-03-09T14:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CaptainRoyen There's no cash flow difference between $ spent on capex and $ spent on M&A the important question is what IRR is being obtained by the $ spend. $whc is using some debt which gives it leverage - and therefore a higher IRR on the spend IF hard coking prices remain durable" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1766511631918317819) 2024-03-09T17:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@respeculator I think anyone who looks at a static commodity price and expects stocks to follow doesn't understand the minerals market. You have to look 12-18 months out and determine where the market is heading and that'll drive valuation more than spot today" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1766897703168983537) 2024-03-10T18:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CaptainRoyen Sure but only one can monetize in the meantime. They also intend to sell off a Daunia stake "later" likely after integration with W. South. Both dramatically shift the IRR for capital deployment" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1766987577981030728) 2024-03-11T00:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$igic special divvy at $.50 total $.51. Generally prefer buybacks for tax reasons but I only hold this in tax advantaged accounts so I'm not mad. Strong balance sheet + growing book set this up for a strong '24" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1767649555162517884) 2024-03-12T20:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@_triangulate_ @no_privacy @_dpgibson I mean look at what the last bond raise did to the stock and those were great terms. Why would the next raise coming this year be different" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1767739449012584621) 2024-03-13T02:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ErikTinPeasant @TinInvestor @respeculator @JeffSawick @OG_TINBARON I think you've completely misunderstood everything I've said. I'm long with over 30k shares - keeping it around 5% of my portfolio. I also have reasonable expectations in light of regional risks" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1768043589274046614) 2024-03-13T22:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Gonsalves sounds like a scorned lover - as if $30/share would somehow be a viable bid for the board 🤣😂 Honestly none of this reflects well on him / $clf. Showing a level of pettiness that rivals high school divas" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1768446474059231676) 2024-03-15T01:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Closed $tdw yesterday and will look for a new entry. I think this is a position to "marry" not "date" but I think it's ripe for some level of pullback. Being consistent with more risk management in my positions is also important no matter the feels. $tdw $84.40 today. Oil moved from $75 to $80 and I'm +27% on this entry. Rode it from $48 - $72 last year as well. Love this stock. $tdw $84.40 today. Oil moved from $75 to $80 and I'm +27% on this entry. Rode it from $48 - $72 last year as well. Love this stock" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1769025089394143555) 2024-03-16T15:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@blondesnmoney The lack of volume alone is what stopped me from looking further into it. One nearly illiquid company using all stock on another just gives me alarm bells" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1769503587372024038) 2024-03-17T23:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@realhagetaka Check your math: 3/31/23 144.7m shares Today 128.36m shares $18 comparison at 144.7m = 2.605b market cap 2.605b / 128.36m = $20.29 The equivalent bottom would be 14% lower" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1772670748290674977) 2024-03-26T17:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "China over-produces lithium to crash prices. China continues to produce at a loss into oversupplied market. China buys global lithium players at greatly reduced prices. As @YellowLabLife said it's really iron ore all over again" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1772821458164568113) 2024-03-27T03:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Starting to ease back into $pypl - added [---] @ [-----] and sold a 4/12 $66 call on it for $.79" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1775199548295557509) 2024-04-02T16:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Cut my last $tdw at $94.30 & put around 50% of proceeds into $val at $74.70. I'm not bearish oil or smart enough to know where it's going - using Russian cuts strength to trim some and rebalance seemed prudent. Likely leaving $rig this week - sitting on a small gain - we'll see" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1775205500579164367) 2024-04-02T16:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Positions opened back up this week at 1/3 or 1/2 prior size: $pmetf $pypl $baba Want to increase: $vale $jrngf" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1775286569496150464) 2024-04-02T22:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$whc.ax is the setup I'm salivating over - 12+ m/t added & blackwater is one of the cheapest cost met mines in Aus per ton. 20% sell down should only happen at 750-800m range or it's not worth losing the profits imo. Be patient and trust the process" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1776063988469465134) 2024-04-05T01:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@_triangulate_ Here's mine in order from largest position to smallest not as much overlap as I thought but a decent amount: Hcc Whitf Laac Val Sgml Vale Afmjf Ie Igic CVE Baba Pmetf Soc X Ptalf Joe Hg Flmmf Jrngf Pypl Thxpf Jrvr" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1776681290743288262) 2024-04-06T18:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "And then there was 30k. I don't need 40k I would swoon just for stability over $30k. The amount of cash flow you'll see out of $afm.v is *chef's kiss* #Tin price: [-----] (+1690 +5.87%) 12:14pm London $Tin https://t.co/bAY5wJPYfN #Tin price: [-----] (+1690 +5.87%) 12:14pm London $Tin https://t.co/bAY5wJPYfN" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1777664498121240665) 2024-04-09T11:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@mfwarder @tradedollarnut Issue with this thinking is that the underlying cost/price is encouraged to increase as long as the feds bail out borrowers. Unless the students apply discretion on cost the schools won't have incentive to limit tuitions. Any action on debt without action on cost is foolish" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1777687443262541857) 2024-04-09T13:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@BichonRedux Yeah that's a huge negative with RH because you can't buy any OTC stocks at all. Eliminates it as a serious place for me to hold funds long term" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1777874959286636679) 2024-04-10T01:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The degenerate play here keeps it interesting. The powerful people long class B will rake Shari over the coals if this closed talks proposition with Skydance doesn't either break off or come with a massive debt pay down / class B shares retirement makes even value on $para A's An attorney representing Aspen Sky Trust has sent a cease-and-desist letter to Shari Redstone over the Paramount-Skydance merger talks and the letter contains the threat of potential litigation on behalf of Paramount's shareholders. https://t.co/n3OVCm40Xk $PARA An attorney representing Aspen Sky Trust has sent a" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1778417690589147450) 2024-04-11T13:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Watching commodities taking the bid and validating some of the thesis behind my '24-25 portfolio feels good. Long way to go but nice to start on the right path in markets like this" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1779939931193790970) 2024-04-15T18:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@330yard_bomber No buybacks at all. Building Blue Creek and have enough cash on balance sheet to fund the capex. They aren't doing BB because it would make them lose their state NOLs. Going to have a huge cash pile by year end might make them reconsider BB starting in '25" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1780404412969574471) 2024-04-17T01:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Playing $para more conservative and closed my calls at $.60 had opened at $.50. Have $12.50 calls written on 50% of equity for today and $12 on the other 50% for 4/26. Focusing on cash flow and steady gains vs YOLO/degen as I'm just not that type of guy and can't pretend to be" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1781319357970174300) 2024-04-19T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@blondesnmoney It's a racket. Optum manages $17b in HSA funds and pays 0% interest on all balances. Only around 8% of accounts have their HSA in investments. Do the math on their interest rate arbitrage 👀 Oh and want to be an account with investments That's a $3/month fee for the option" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1781775815111282867) 2024-04-20T20:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@realcorycortez Yeah the best ones are the ones that protect 10-20% on the downside while giving full upside participation to something closer to 20%. And absolutely it's a stage of life OR high net worth diversification product. Could argue it would be a HY savings replacement as well though" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1782838073178415465) 2024-04-23T18:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@BichonRedux One of my favorite holdings at this point is $sgml as it's trading at 5x '25 FCF based on current spot lithium so you don't even need to bet on a price recovery for upside. The $100m to build out phase [--] is on the balance sheet already completion EOY '24" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1782913720403812531) 2024-04-23T23:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@_triangulate_ Literally hadn't traded on pink sheets since 4/18 at .8169 so figured a .84 buy a week later wasn't so high that I couldn't at least recover my outlay. It's so freaking illiquid I just knew people who do no DD on their own would buy and sure enough 90k shares today" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1783942368569209201) 2024-04-26T19:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@_triangulate_ Right but the issue is they had $200m tied up with the trustee along with specific timelines to achieve results. This is what kept interest rates reasonable for a company losing money every day they operate. What discount to par will they be able to reissue at" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1784297129768313149) 2024-04-27T19:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Interesting watching $para play out - Skydance wants an extension on exclusivity to avoid a bidding war and the FUD being spread by shills of short holders is going to ramp to [--] to offset it. https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/ceo-bob-bakish-out-paramount-global-1235984507/ https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/ceo-bob-bakish-out-paramount-global-1235984507/" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1784636440044835055) 2024-04-28T17:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I've seen a lot of bad $para takes from people I respect and follow on this app - think Bichon is the only account I follow that's actually nailed the narrative so far. Anyone else predict a tender offer Just me How's this for a prediction: Sony to offer this week. https://t.co/lpUhvQ50OX Anyone else predict a tender offer Just me How's this for a prediction: Sony to offer this week. https://t.co/lpUhvQ50OX" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1784756210647924890) 2024-04-29T01:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Am long 2k $para shares but also have been in and out of options in small amounts. Had added [--] 6/21 $15 calls on Friday for $.45 had 12/15 fill this morning at $.70. Tidy little 55% only $375 but nice way to start a Monday" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1784953370412818790) 2024-04-29T14:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Adding to $x / us steel here. Big River [--] is going to fundamentally remake the company Nippon would owe $565m (over $2.50/share) for break up and if the US govt is going to block an ally nation from acquisition they will follow with material support/tariffs to protect" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1784989819069771944) 2024-04-29T16:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "At the risk of awakening the demons I'll just leave it untagged and say R I G only managed revenue growth of $22m from Q4 to Q1 despite a large run up in oil. It's not a "levered play on oil" - it needs contracts to pay to reactivate rigs and until that comes it's not a buy 🤷🏻♂" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1785074175847043538) 2024-04-29T22:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$vale to $18 this year. Time to buy back stock. Could be $20+ but Brazil probably caps the upside. #IronOre back up to US$117/t 👀 $BHP $RIO $FMG $MIN $CIA #IronOre back up to US$117/t 👀 $BHP $RIO $FMG $MIN $CIA" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1785102156669862259) 2024-04-30T00:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "I put on close to 5k in options yesterday/this morning and deployed every dollar long because I firmly believe this fed is VERY political and will do it's absolute best to support the Biden administration and reelection chances. This Q&A isn't changing my mind at all" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1785742362318078239) 2024-05-01T18:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Things you like to see as a shareholder $val And $VAL was a good bit better than everyone had feared. If you learn one thing from my Twitter account its that winners keep winning. $VAL remains the best run offshore player Now we get into the fun part where every QoQ is a rocket ship as new contract starts roll And $VAL was a good bit better than everyone had feared. If you learn one thing from my Twitter account its that winners keep winning. $VAL remains the best run offshore player Now we get into the fun part where every QoQ is a rocket ship as new contract starts roll" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1785860451462447416) 2024-05-02T02:34Z [---] followers, 25.5K engagements "$para update: traded another cycle of 6/21 $15 calls from $.44 to $.54 and closed this morning. Focused on using volatility to capitalize on two fronts the straight calls and selling covered calls on equity. Currently have [--] calls sold for $13 strikes expiring tomorrow" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1786046218088439891) 2024-05-02T14:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$PARA if it closes over $13 tomorrow will have added a full percentage point to my YTD PnL. Not a bad [--] week play" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1786096445638013157) 2024-05-02T18:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Officially cracking $150's on thermal for year end contracts. Looking very promising for my boys down under" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1786233468017405994) 2024-05-03T03:17Z [---] followers, 10.3K engagements "@_triangulate_ Feeling the FOMO so hard right now - nice job staying the course" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1786438382702195119) 2024-05-03T16:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "LOL @ $para - exactly why I've played this the way I have. So many rumors. I have $13c expiring today written against my 2k shares. It's up to the market gods what happens. Will be very happy to continue my strategy selling calls next week if we go below $13" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1786462723527610533) 2024-05-03T18:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Ytd +13.32% $para play continues thanks to the close below $13. Debate will be another round of calls to sell or just close come Monday - going to depend on what headlines we see over the weekend I think" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1786493648919499244) 2024-05-03T20:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Moethegreat31 No the 8-K shows it's reissuing the original bonds so would have same coupon payment terms as before. They also gave warrants up to [----] for 3.1m more shares at $11.50 so potentially rather dilutive as well" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1787835344542396748) 2024-05-07T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@private_dataguy Not disputing that at all. Just calling a spade a spade. If they can ramp it'll just be about 2% dilutive. They just need to not get handcuffed in the capital markets as they try and pay for operations and then Augusta" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1787838490874446309) 2024-05-07T13:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@realcorycortez How much $ are they borrowing to fund completion and what's the timeline to get to production on Augusta With all the delays I don't know anymore off hand. The balance sheet is going to be what limits equity values" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1788010017880256880) 2024-05-08T00:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$igic moving into Lloyd's underwriting room is a nice step forward. $2.55 in [----] EPS and $.84 in Q1 strong capital return program while growing premiums. Just needs coverage and a higher profile to really re-rate. Forward PE around [--] when US insurance industry is [----] 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1788216173223432322) 2024-05-08T14:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "South side of Minneapolis doesn't generally get to enjoy the show - but the Northern Lights won't be denied tonight" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1789134101347226105) 2024-05-11T03:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Out of rig pypl sbsw hims baba ptalf. / ptalf were break evens rest at a range of 5%-20% over the last month. Best performing was the rig call spread from .90 - [----] [--] names left. Haven't been this light in names in ages. http://Joy.to http://joy.to http://Joy.to http://joy.to" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1790869656476996073) 2024-05-15T22:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@kingdomcapadv Completely agree. With the breakup fee and big River [--] rolling up soon major capex will be passed and while it may take until [----] without an acquisition it's a $55+ company in [--] months. Cliffs ceo is doing all he can to spread fud to distract from his own coming capex cluster" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1791649197390709136) 2024-05-18T01:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Love $sgml as low cost with a green premium - I've shared my $20 PT by vocally. However it has ramped faster than I think lithium pricing is supporting and at 7x '25 FCF with current pricing I'm expecting some retracement barring new buyout headlines" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1791852221333639416) 2024-05-18T15:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$para showing why it's often best to sell the rumor. Have checked out since the SD quiet period ended as that was the golden opportunity for headline trading. Ticking into $11's - back to no sale grind out a turnaround with no CEO $para position closed pre-market at $13.45. Was prepared to let the $13 calls be filled on Friday the "crash" to [-----] gave me an extra $900 selling pre-market today. No opinion on what happens now. $para position closed pre-market at $13.45. Was prepared to let the $13 calls be filled on Friday the "crash" to [-----] gave me an extra $900 selling pre-market today. No" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1792608756028813455) 2024-05-20T17:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Blackjack155361 One thing if you're buying at a premium because of "M&A" but when you're buying a business that's going to do $200m in ebitda this year and $400m next in a price environment that's driving supply projects away while demand continues to build Non-issue" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1793650361825132728) 2024-05-23T14:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@blondesnmoney Important to sell everything else so you can keep buying nvda" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1793738354426810411) 2024-05-23T20:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$whc position is interesting here because the longer BHP/Anglo gets drawn out the better for their finances. Do you delay a BW sell down for another quarter+ to maximize operating cash flow and only close once closer to a possible bidding process" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1794896367443415071) 2024-05-27T01:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Sentiment on $lac hurting $laac as well - imo creates opportunity as these companies aren't intertwined in any way. Only legit angle I could argue is legacy shareholders who got both on the split are bailing simultaneously on $lac implosion" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1795630356433113272) 2024-05-29T01:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Agree here - M&A going to take the commodity world by storm over the next 12-18 months. $49b was 2x the Anglo market cap from 4/24 - shows what it takes to get world class assets. $BHP Anglo deal rejection.get long commodities 👀 $HSHP move sending a message BHP Abandons $49 Billion Bid After Anglo Holds Firm on Rejection https://t.co/hVFeyTT5sZ $BHP Anglo deal rejection.get long commodities 👀 $HSHP move sending a message BHP Abandons $49 Billion Bid After Anglo Holds Firm on Rejection https://t.co/hVFeyTT5sZ" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1795846221187485832) 2024-05-29T15:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@blondesnmoney Oh yeah. $19 by year end if they can string two more strong quarters even if they don't they've demonstrated such strong underwriting that somebody will take notice eventually. It's a 6% position for me. Had been as high as 9%. Could see it getting back to 10% if we drop back" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1796651987267686554) 2024-05-31T21:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@_triangulate_ Yeah would just say legal community in general is very stirred up on this - as a moderate I'm fully in the "this shouldn't have happened" side as political theater that'll worsen already awful divisions. https://x.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1796577680919511048t=mVrDntxu9dRyPni30pNwgg&s=19 CNN Senior Legal Analyst Describes How The Trump Conviction Was A Political Hit Job [--]. "The judge donated money. in plain violation of a rule prohibiting New York judges from making political donationsto a pro-Biden anti-Trump political operation." [--]. Alvin Bragg boasted on" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1796748671444218116) 2024-06-01T03:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Weekend vibes are strong 📈 Started a position on $NRP last month intend to add as a long term brokerage holding - tax implications are unique for MLPs so understand it before considering 🤝" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1796935602241159541) 2024-06-01T16:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "My decision of the year so far was the exit from $btu: 1/3 sold at $24.50 to buy $igic at $12.05 2/3 sold at $27.xx for $hcc @ $56.15 and $whc via $whitf at $4.55" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1797436277102707034) 2024-06-03T01:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@ColhounLogan It's small for me - I have $ie who is a complicated combination of undeveloped resources and technology. Also have $fil.to as possibly the best undeveloped asset globally. Only actual "producer" I have is $vale and that's really just a tiny fraction of their business" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1797440021454373202) 2024-06-03T01:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ColhounLogan So overall the percentages are small but it's in IE and Filo as two that would provide significant torque upwards in an acquisition situation if the bull continues" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1797440247401521314) 2024-06-03T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@bhidesubodh1 It's like oil in a sense - it's everywhere but it's only economical in specific areas. A lot of uneconomical projects got capital in 2021-2022 and the cure for low prices is low prices. I own [--] lithium names:" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1797816021778366645) 2024-06-04T02:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@bhidesubodh1 [--]. $sgml Making significant cash flow funding a build out for ramped production from cash on hand. Trades at 5.5x [----] FCF at today's prices. Doesn't need any change in market to be a strong compounder" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1797816311554425280) 2024-06-04T02:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@HomosexualMan1 I'm down to only $val but I'm keeping it a little longer" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1798461177082646757) 2024-06-05T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "To his credit Mr. Gill "proved" he isn't driving the stock and if sued could show that live stream as evidence with an overlay of how GME performed during it. Intrigued by what his exit plan will be next week" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1799296321830142057) 2024-06-08T04:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I pitched $NRP to my finance friends thread a while back - hearing @YellowLabLife mention it on @moneyofminepod and I thought I'd share my pitch. It's an MLP so I own only in taxable accounts and I'm only 1/3rd of the position I want by year end. Front running myself a bit hah" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1800211753789424084) 2024-06-10T17:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Interesting to see the director sell 37% of their shares in $tdw yesterday. Not invested right now but a company I like so I'm watching. My only oil long is $val - only 3% off it's ATH buying back stock and contracts cycling this summer that will juice the bottom line" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1800570797544870378) 2024-06-11T16:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Doubled my $NRP position this morning now at a 5.22% allocation. 7.5% is my target but with the brokerage only nature it means it'll be a slow climb to that level. I pitched $NRP to my finance friends thread a while back - hearing @YellowLabLife mention it on @moneyofminepod and I thought I'd share my pitch. It's an MLP so I own only in taxable accounts and I'm only 1/3rd of the position I want by year end. Front running myself a bit hah https://t.co/MhinUGowup I pitched $NRP to my finance friends thread a while back - hearing @YellowLabLife mention it on @moneyofminepod and I thought I'd" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1800923872428163194) 2024-06-12T16:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$para [--] week low is $10.12 currently$11 arguably in better position now than Dec when it was trading in 15-17 range. Considering either a long equity + short call or just selling puts here. IV has been juiced obviously. 2.8% premium on the 6/21 $11p" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1801058972859760721) 2024-06-13T01:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@crowdturtle Based on the distribution structure I don't see a 2x in terms of share price but rather think in terms of 18-20% CAGR which a material amount of that being dividends and distributions. I do think they are serious about "future materials" royalties and as they pay off their 1/2" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1801060671594881457) 2024-06-13T01:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@crowdturtle Debt position over the next [--] months they will be having a serious conversation about how do they use their balance sheet for new growth. If they can find attractive IRR rights then I could see a real re-rate" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1801060952961405249) 2024-06-13T01:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Had a back and forth on $val warrants yesterday - I'm long the equity as the only oil stock in my portfolio but the warrants are a degen play at best. Always funny to see a puke immediately after comments like this:" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1801670881791393853) 2024-06-14T17:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Looking across markets I have a general sense that commodities are pricing much higher risk of a contraction than consensus. Looking at downside insurance on the broader indexes here. If the puts are a zero it'll be from resilient growth which is bullish materials and a win 🤷🏻♂" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1804151315234169163) 2024-06-21T13:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@travelingsoftly What's your thought process It looks to me like they're going to have to fix the balance sheet to stabilize and seems early to be buying" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1804506998181871820) 2024-06-22T13:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@blondesnmoney Just had seen this S1 and then searching the ticker there's very little on here" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1804582191537500494) 2024-06-22T18:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ZugTrading @ZugDispatch Couple things: [--]. Anyone who references a US based basket is being lazy. [--]. 20-25% moves are part of the territory. Don't be in commodities if that frightens you. [--]. Trading vs Investing is very different. Find companies that make money at cycle bottoms. Think 3-5 yrs. Compound" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1806429744574988684) 2024-06-27T20:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@EconstratPB Imagine the downward pressure on shelter from reduced interest rates About time they cut" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1806871241682194566) 2024-06-29T02:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@realhagetaka @ImmaYieldGuy Then every operation that sells an on par quality level with the blend benefits because supply is gone for who knows how long. That's the entire point here" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1807259004235645276) 2024-06-30T03:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Putting this out there for posterity: As a sizeable long holder of $HCC this pop seems overdone and I would be fading it as a short term play if I was a market timer / trader. The supply impacts are real but not +15%+ imo. Not changing my position long term very bullish" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1807832644501086367) 2024-07-01T17:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Funny that $nrp didn't move until after lunchtime - rolled my morning HCC trade gains into it at $91.50 at 9am. Up to a 6.7% position now" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1807849927986630846) 2024-07-01T18:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@crowdturtle Yeah lightly traded and Q2 results in a month + Look back at 5/2022 and that run had a period of consolidation until breaking out Nov/Dec. We've been consolidating for 6-7 months again might be breakout time" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1807863144225587421) 2024-07-01T19:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@respeculator Point is you have the deferred contingent and capex associated all in there. So for a a$1.5b or so outlay you're still seeing 10%+ FCF yield on the investment at $220 met. It's paying for itself and your balance sheet builds while making decent FCF. It's a coup" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1807982349776298157) 2024-07-02T03:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$pct update comes and stock drops after hours same day @John_Hempton tweets. Some things are just destiny. Would like to hear from anyone who can give context on the update We've provided a production update on our flagship purification facility in Ironton Ohio. Read more: https://t.co/L36vHRZ5aC https://t.co/Skbbd71T80 We've provided a production update on our flagship purification facility in Ironton Ohio. Read more: https://t.co/L36vHRZ5aC https://t.co/Skbbd71T80" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1808253936639353009) 2024-07-02T21:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@tradedollarnut @mfwarder @dyer440 Expected to do up to 15mtpa. Year [--] who knows ramp ups vary greatly from what I've seen" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1809266786312900949) 2024-07-05T16:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@_triangulate_ I see a triple top and given the macro slowing and political landscape in Argentina still in enough flux I think it's premature to expect an acquisition - but could obviously be very wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1809656381387030534) 2024-07-06T18:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$sgml dropping to 8.75% of LME for the last shipment plus further decline in lithium making the numbers worse than below. Still compelling for this bottoming of the cycle imo I'm long [----] shares at [-----] avg but have covered call + hedge proceeds over $7k for adj basis $14.23 $sgml napkin math for nameplate: 520kt priced @ 9% of LME $483/t FOB + Royalties Est. 15m/q all other expenses (Q1 was $8.89m) LME today= $13557.50 (520kt * [--------] * .09) - (520kt * $483) - (15m * 4) = $323331000 EBITDA EV/EBITDA = [----] $sgml napkin math for nameplate: 520kt priced @ 9% of LME $483/t FOB + Royalties" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1809671885296226328) 2024-07-06T19:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Curious if anyone follows @BichonRedux and what the current $para cope is since he blocked me for saying $rig wasn't a buy You can make money on volatile stocks without getting emotional but neither of these names is a buy-and-hold company right now" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1810323069740679286) 2024-07-08T14:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Some shifts as we go into Q3: Whc / whitf 19.78% Cash 11.64% Sgml 10.38% Hcc 10.08% Igic 7.82% X 7.05% Nrp 6.35% Afm.v / afmjf 5.84% Vale 5.84% Laac 4.68% Ie 4.2% Val 2.96% Pmet / pmetf 2.51% Thx.v / thxpf .9% Position weights: Whitf 16% Hcc 11.2% Igic 9% Sgml 8.2% Laac 7.8% Vale 7% Afmjf 7% Val 6.3% Para 5.4% X 5.1% Pmetf 3.5% Baba 3.4% Ptalf 2.7% Ie 2.4% Flmmf 2.1% Jrngf 2% Thxpf .9% Position weights: Whitf 16% Hcc 11.2% Igic 9% Sgml 8.2% Laac 7.8% Vale 7% Afmjf 7% Val 6.3% Para 5.4% X 5.1% Pmetf 3.5% Baba 3.4% Ptalf 2.7% Ie 2.4% Flmmf 2.1% Jrngf 2% Thxpf .9%" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1810351373604487424) 2024-07-08T16:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$sgml at today's price and 8.75% realized from last shipment: $243485000 ebitda LME hydroxide CIF could go from $12190 to $7000 and the math still gives positive ebitda from 520kt in '25. The floor here is very different from almost any other lithium player in the world. $sgml napkin math for nameplate: 520kt priced @ 9% of LME $483/t FOB + Royalties Est. 15m/q all other expenses (Q1 was $8.89m) LME today= $13557.50 (520kt * [--------] * .09) - (520kt * $483) - (15m * 4) = $323331000 EBITDA EV/EBITDA = [----] $sgml napkin math for nameplate: 520kt priced @ 9% of LME $483/t FOB + Royalties Est." [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1810420162178216047) 2024-07-08T21:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "-6% move in $hcc Probably a more reasonable price post-grosvenor. If no accidents or delays it's $110-120 in [----]. So a bit of a mute point for long term thinking but entries add up over time and making good ones helps. Putting this out there for posterity: As a sizeable long holder of $HCC this pop seems overdone and I would be fading it as a short term play if I was a market timer / trader. The supply impacts are real but not +15%+ imo. Not changing my position long term very bullish. Putting this out there for posterity: As a sizeable long holder of $HCC this pop seems overdone and I would" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1810672714933207470) 2024-07-09T13:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "From $sgml investor presentation - the key perspective to keep as the lithium market trades in volatile ways. I won't be buying more but what I do have is set to be a 3-5yr hold unless some acquisition comes first. Looking forward to the flip to being a dividend payer in '25" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1810845706145415607) 2024-07-10T01:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Hang it in the Louvre https://t.co/sv5GjZJHw6 https://t.co/sv5GjZJHw6" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1812256700642037986) 2024-07-13T22:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$x is under the radar some right now - but seeing $clf pay a 100% premium for their acquisition should make people pay attention. If a Trump win is being priced in Nippon has materially higher odds of being approved in a lame duck session. Japan is an ally - $55/sh incoming. I've talked $x a few times and I entered back at $37 and have been writing calls at $42 just as I don't see it moving during the election cycle but the premiums are pretty high making it with the capital now. And while I raised cash to 26% this week I actually added to my X. I've talked $x a few times and I entered back" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1812881138525831388) 2024-07-15T16:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Man what a contra that was. Still need to collect on that bet. Real talk: melt up likely continues - Goldilocks data keeps coming for the fed. Cracks are real though - at work I'm seeing reports with low income credit risk being flagged. Anecdotal but it's hitting radars. Anyone else have that one friend who is the ultimate contra Literally bottom ticked to the day. https://t.co/lROYzIJSL9 Anyone else have that one friend who is the ultimate contra Literally bottom ticked to the day. https://t.co/lROYzIJSL9" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1813419238763200516) 2024-07-17T03:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PetjaYlitalo @blondesnmoney EPS is not reflective of SBC. It's not a "true expense" and there's lots from Buffett out there on that you can Google" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1813728612170006763) 2024-07-18T00:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Digesting the $whc / $whc.ax results: -Production shows a near seamless transition at the mines logistics an issue at Daunia but it's solved. -Realized price less than expected. Need to see the gaps close in Sept Q. -Cost trend is concerning. Guidance range for FY25 is key" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1814137926474756504) 2024-07-19T03:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@zweidner @crowdturtle Yes unless I'm doing something shorter to harvest premium - but that's more speculation. On my long holdings I like to sell for "income" trade off could be missing out on a 30% move. So picking time windows and deciding what gain % you target is key" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1814755234524107160) 2024-07-20T20:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Not really a TA person but the base $NRP has been building in '24 is a beauty. Soda ash stabilized coal was so-so but $60m of FCF for Q2 should be baseline (Q1 $72m) and around a 20% levered / 18% unlevered yield" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1815809549011697666) 2024-07-23T18:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Seawolfcap @private_dataguy I don't think it's a bad thesis to say: [--]. Management has met no milestones on schedule [--]. Company is losing money Combining makes the odds of an equity raise high. Gibson has bankrolled and made debt possible vs equity issuance but how much longer can that well last" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1816525936046887225) 2024-07-25T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The cure for low prices is low prices. Call me irrational but I like the R/R in the lithium space 🤷🏻♂ African supply is low grade. China majors are losing huge sums. Low cost South American producers are set up to perform over the coming 1-2 years. For me it's $laac & $sgml" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1816933123898081559) 2024-07-26T20:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@_triangulate_ Yeah I got timing wrong on Filo selling at $19.50 vs $23 after the buyout and not making that mistake on IE while waiting on the Ma'aden JV drill program. I don't know what's going on with tintic but hog heaven has potential and Santa Cruz is significant" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1818661462530744488) 2024-07-31T14:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "I'm a big fan of my Google Pixel. I'm a big fan of Sheets Maps Docs Drive etc I'm not a big fan of bias being programmed in intentionally. "Trump rally" returning Harris ATL rally as top stories vs "Harris rally" coming up specifically only Harris News is appalling" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1818794373141671978) 2024-07-31T23:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Had exited $val at an equivalent of $77.15 post earnings and with today's drop I sold cash secured puts for 9/20 at $70 for $1.95. Either sets up a 2.75% return on cash in addition to yielding MM rate through 9/20 or gives me an effective entrance of $68.05. Oil was a phenomenal exit in April I only kept VAL to sell calls on. Down to [---] shares with ATM $75 calls sold for 7/19 @ $2.15 per. VAL seems to be building a base so it'll stay on my watchlist. Would love to rebuild a position in the $60's. Oil was a phenomenal exit in April I only kept VAL to sell calls on. Down to [---] shares with ATM" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1819033672990790098) 2024-08-01T15:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@YellowLabLife People who invest 100% in SPX and think they're diversified with 20% allocated to apple Microsoft and Nvidia and 30% Mag7" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1819150547221418092) 2024-08-01T23:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Sold $9 puts on $sgml today. Feeling frisky" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1819499337195401586) 2024-08-02T22:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@_triangulate_ EPS includes capex but as depreciation. So it impacts because it's a real cost but only a portion hits per year. So the asset shows on the balance sheet and the asset value is written down as the depreciation is captured as an expense" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1820186832509776139) 2024-08-04T19:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@_triangulate_ Knowing which is a better indicator depends on the business. For example coal miners have large OpEx that aren't optional if they want to stay in business so FCF is more important. Separating types of capex is the crucial part to understanding operating CF conversion to FCF" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1820187702886535668) 2024-08-04T19:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "#coal royalyies are my preferred safe haven" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1820506172304019619) 2024-08-05T17:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@HomosexualMan1 I've never understood the desire to attach to a sub-par company. I get they didn't go through BK like the others so some goodwill from OGs who didn't get wiped out. But willingly buying that balance sheet Woof" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1820599875785921010) 2024-08-05T23:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$nrp - FCF just under my baseline - recognized $1.1m more interest expense as they increased their credit facility to do more redemptions. Fine by me I'm not going to sweat that. The capital returns reflected here are 💪 Not really a TA person but the base $NRP has been building in '24 is a beauty. Soda ash stabilized coal was so-so but $60m of FCF for Q2 should be baseline (Q1 $72m) and around a 20% levered / 18% unlevered yield. https://t.co/38LjuErMKQ Not really a TA person but the base $NRP has been building in '24 is a beauty. Soda ash stabilized coal was so-so but $60m of FCF for Q2" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1821176562382991766) 2024-08-07T13:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@crowdturtle Yeah the unit based comp is high a bit annoying - compared to net income it's about 6% for the quarter. Redeeming the preferreds aggressively is better than a straight BB I would expect to see the BB of common ramp after the preferreds are all rolled off" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1821180740471812405) 2024-08-07T13:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@private_dataguy That had insurance coverage though so it wasn't $12m from only company money. They didn't break it down which is frustrating for investors" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1821563873490604273) 2024-08-08T15:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@lurker8679 Just looking at the cash used - add up and just under $35m in what are a mix of recurring and non-recurring expenses from the quarter" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1821603850043978198) 2024-08-08T17:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@_triangulate_ Yeah she threatened legal action if they tried to force something through. So will be interesting obviously way past the [--] year rule so just a bunch of people operating blindly" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1822007385868685504) 2024-08-09T20:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "11 shipments of 22kt in [--] months annualized at 242kt vs nameplate of 270kt. Not bad for a first year. Noticed they didn't mention price realized in this PR - that's a red flag from me. $sgml SIGMA LITHIUM COMPLETES FULL YEAR OF CONSISTENT OPERATIONAL CADENCE WITH 22000t OF QUINTUPLE ZERO GREEN LITHIUM LOADED AT THE PORT; ACHIEVED ZERO WORK ACCIDENTS FOR [---] DAYS $SGML https://t.co/Tnhockxgsh SIGMA LITHIUM COMPLETES FULL YEAR OF CONSISTENT OPERATIONAL CADENCE WITH 22000t OF QUINTUPLE ZERO GREEN LITHIUM LOADED AT THE PORT; ACHIEVED ZERO WORK ACCIDENTS FOR [---] DAYS $SGML https://t.co/Tnhockxgsh" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1823345217614835898) 2024-08-13T13:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Would like to see Ana's resignation notice tomorrow morning. You can't just not release earnings the date you set. $sgml" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1824279037902197209) 2024-08-16T02:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Been selling puts in names I like at prices I like. Last weeks: 9/20 $ie $7.50 @ $.65 9/20 $val $70 @ $7.40" [X Link](https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1825525165930787248) 2024-08-19T13:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@StevenShadduck Steve
Steve posts on X about $whcax, $whc, debt, $hcc the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [---] #
- [--] Week [------] +1,418%
- [--] Month [------] +67%
- [--] Months [-------] +19%
- [--] Year [-------] -64%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +18%
- [--] Month [--] +11%
- [--] Months [---] -18%
- [--] Year [---] -40%
Followers: [---] #
- [--] Week [---] +1.40%
- [--] Month [---] +4.40%
- [--] Months [---] +13%
- [--] Year [---] +44%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance stocks cryptocurrencies technology brands countries currencies social networks travel destinations us election nfl
Social topic influence $whcax, $whc, debt, $hcc, $val, $sgml, money, $btu, $whitf, $nrp
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @triangulate @yellowlablife @crowdturtle @realcorycortez @blondesnmoney @johnhempton @captainroyen @tradedollarnut @ancientsion @miketaylor1972 @boringville @dpgibson @mfwarder @indifferentia @privatedataguy @ds4scanner7 @modustollens4 @bysl @realhagetaka @respeculator
Top assets mentioned Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) Validity (VAL) Sigma Lithium Corporation Common Shares (SGML) Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) Tidewater, Inc. (TDW) VALE S.A. (VALE) Golar LNG Ltd (GLNG) Transocean LTD. (RIG) Barnes & Noble Education, Inc (BNED) PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) Cleveland-Cliffs, Inc. (CLF) MX Token (MX) Lithium (LITH) BHP Group Limited (BHP) Paramount Global (PARA)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@indifferentia_ Yeah bots are going to be the death of Twitter if nothing changes"
X Link 2023-07-10T01:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@KEDM_COM I think if you look at the type of bonds being issued you'll see the Treasury is selling oodles of [--] years and very few 10-30 durations. At the same time they require a lot of orgs to hold longer dated maturities - they could stabilize end of curve rates via issuance rebalance"
X Link 2023-07-10T15:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@indifferentia_ Yeah I mean you want to spend the time wisely so preparing for more production makes sense. I have no position here might be interesting after their Q124 earnings call if they remain on track at that point as most dilution will have resolved likely"
X Link 2023-08-02T03:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@indifferentia_ @StevenC07845534 And it's more dire because that application isn't getting considered in 2024:"
X Link 2023-08-05T03:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@indifferentia_ @SWAbrams I think you underestimate the number and pull of the countries against it"
X Link 2023-08-06T01:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@boringville I too enjoy the Koala and spec'd on a position. Hope they hit lithium 👀"
X Link 2023-08-09T17:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@private_dataguy @xEBITDA @Mike_Taylor1972 No doubt a lot of stupid stuff has been thrown out but I will say they do need capital here of some form. About $30m on hand they owe $20m on Ironton and the revolver is short term with a brutal high interest rate you wouldn't want to draw on"
X Link 2023-08-11T12:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"What to be long in a yield blowout/inflation environment Companies that: [--]. Generate high margins / cash [--]. Have tangible assets with high replacement costs For me it means my biggest holdings are: $X - Steel mills $TDW and $VAL - offshore oil $JOE - prime empty acreage"
X Link 2023-08-17T15:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@anjprd Bonds available yes but at what interest rate Their $40m insider financing is SOFR+7.5% They revolver ratchets to over 20%. Cost of capital directly impacts bottom line"
X Link 2023-08-18T14:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@anjprd I trust you know who Dan Gibson is if you're a $PCT investor he considered the soft+7.5 a sweet heart deal between insider and company:"
X Link 2023-08-18T14:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@LightOneFire @INArteCarloDoss @PauloMacro Consecutive quarters of negative GDP We're not even close. Consumer spending is strong unemployment low manufacturing and shipping reaccelerating. Either need a huge system shock or substantially higher rates to slow this machine down"
X Link 2023-08-19T20:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Mike_Taylor1972 How can you call this a good raise They don't even know how much they will get from it - just that at the end they will pay $75m to Sylebra and $125 to whoever they hope they can sell notes to. Literally don't have a buyer for the paper or a rate on it"
X Link 2023-08-22T01:55Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@boringville @BSdestroyer_ @bysl But again what's the rush for that Does it matter what the stock is trading at when they don't need any type of financing Some things sort themselves out over time"
X Link 2023-08-23T21:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@boringville @BSdestroyer_ @bysl They have signed JVs that have paid them multi-millions. They reconfirmed revenue guidance full year. JVs don't give millions over for nothing but talk"
X Link 2023-08-23T21:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@BSdestroyer_ @boringville @bysl $6.9m revenue last quarter where do you think that came from"
X Link 2023-08-23T21:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@trumpNOmore333 @boringville @bysl Very different setups. Was long PCT until it overextend sold and bought puts now covered those. Made 106% long and just about 70% on the puts. I'll take a position when it misprices again or meets 100% production and I'll hold long for a decade"
X Link 2023-08-24T03:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@boringsaltville Yeah uranium is a cult-like group on Twitter. But also has been a raging bull market. I do think his writing on the paper short oil trade was strong and I'm up 40-50% on $val and $tdw that he put me onto. The vax stuff is really really extreme"
X Link 2023-09-09T19:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@boringsaltville $val has super valuable rigs that they contract super poorly. $rig far superior management. You could maybe prove me wrong but I've only ever seen him say conditions are set up for a possible squeeze not that one will necessarily occur. Supply/demand makes it hard to dispute"
X Link 2023-09-09T20:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"$PCT remains solidly behind schedule again now outside management's range for performance testing. We haven't even seen 50% met - let alone the 100% [--] day test that was guided to be done by the end of Aug. I have cash ready to be long but the risk here keeps me away for now"
X Link 2023-09-11T18:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@holdyourwinners Yields have been blowing them out - the balance sheet for $PCT is awful. Equity was essentially issued via convertibles and it dropped 15% more. R/R is bad with -70% on the table from a second default due to the inability to operate at scale for consistent periods of time"
X Link 2023-09-12T03:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@holdyourwinners $orgn is past it's major revaluation - I'm long at [----] didn't bottom tick it obviously but not a huge hole. It has a rock solid balance sheet and has no long term debt or bond holders to perform for. $pct is a $0 if it doesn't operate based on it's debt picture"
X Link 2023-09-12T03:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@boringsaltville I didn't put it in Twitter but sold 50% of my $val this morning at $75.35 right before the selloff"
X Link 2023-09-13T20:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Fitz_FF do you think keeping Cam Akers makes sense Starting TE is 'Muth and Kincaid is on the waivers and I'm considering dropping him to get Kincaid as an alternative as 'Muths use is brutal so far"
X Link 2023-09-20T04:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@RollTribe1987 @patrick_cantlay @RyderCupUSA @rydercup @RyderCupEurope Rory is the one who made a thing of it - was way out of his way and it's not even close"
X Link 2023-10-01T01:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$pct was trading over $8.50 at the time of this post. Today it's working really hard on holding $5. Somewhere around $4.50 I may buy calls as I expect Gibson to continue shoveling money into the furnace. The risk/reward has been garbage on this name but gambling is fun. $PCT remains solidly behind schedule again now outside management's range for performance testing. We haven't even seen 50% met - let alone the 100% [--] day test that was guided to be done by the end of Aug. I have cash ready to be long but the risk here keeps me away for now https://t.co/pYwd69nwa3 $PCT remains solidly behind"
X Link 2023-10-03T17:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@John_Hempton @_dpgibson If $pct fails Sylebra likely has to close its doors as no client would look at the risk management process involved here already and trust keeping money invested. That tells me that the furnace shoveling continues and gives upside potential"
X Link 2023-10-03T17:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@AndrewErickson_ @DBro_FFB @Fitz_FF if any of you see this I'm curious on trade advice for .5ppr: Give: Ceedee Lamb Get: Debo + Rhamondre Rhamondre becomes my flex behind Jacobs/Achane. Debo slots in with Ridley and Tank Dell as top WR options. Seems weak for a [--] wr setup"
X Link 2023-10-04T15:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Bought back into $sruuf today at $15.77 spot price hasn't changed yet we saw a nearly 15% drop in fund value - re-pricing happening from paper trades is opportunity for "easy" alpha as it will revert back towards NAV unless spot #uranium drops"
X Link 2023-10-04T23:16Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@PaulM81587676 The fund has a set NAV from its underlying material holdings. Sometimes the price it trades at can vary significantly from NAV - my entrance at $15.77 was nearly a -10% discount to NAV. Either uranium spot price needed to materially drop or selling was overdone. Not complex"
X Link 2023-10-07T02:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@triangulate @elonmusk Well there's the "for you" on the left that's personal. The "trending" appears be to country related as yours says Canada but mine is US. The the news tab just has [--] topics TOTAL for me. It's bonkers"
X Link 2023-10-09T03:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@xEBITDA @Moethegreat31 @private_dataguy @Mike_Taylor1972 Hard to know. They clearly have delays. Big question is does O1 work at some point this year If it does it's a buy. If it doesn't then you're trying to value "bottle caps" and that somehow O2 will work despite O1 not. Lack of clarity around O1 is causing capitulation imo"
X Link 2023-10-10T13:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@triangulate Seem to have a pretty narrow focus on incremental supply when the real issue that could send things haywire is geopolitical risk. The balance of production and consumption is more skewed in uranium than almost every other material. What spot has started long term may carry on"
X Link 2023-10-14T18:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@triangulate I don't have any current positions outside of the SMR space. But a quick glance around the globe shows massive geopolitical risk and exposure to that is something to seriously consider. Incremental supply as a focus runs the risk of missing the big picture"
X Link 2023-10-14T18:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@STEVEWA10865446 @SleeperHQ Check the Patriots depth chart pal"
X Link 2023-10-15T15:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@shimblum Yeah reflective of the risk the bondholders could have asked for all $200m+ instead took $50m to build their guarantee account. It's only a buy when milestones get met originally thought that could be share price $15-20 might actually be $8-12"
X Link 2023-10-26T13:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@triangulate @Buy100ozSilver Well it's at least possible to dollarize and be limited vs trying to do a gold standard which would be the real libertarian take imo. It also has modern examples to look at like Ecuador to sell people on what growth could come from stability"
X Link 2023-11-24T23:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@triangulate @ZJ1111111 @realcorycortez Yes that was the cash "buyout" figure then got the standard immediate vesting of all stock awards and removal of restrictions. It's the "we're firing you so here's cash to agree to not sue or disparage the company""
X Link 2023-12-02T02:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@BenVB11 @triangulate @ZJ1111111 @realcorycortez I mean we honestly don't know anything here. But few topics: [-----] comp around the corner -red flags around bond raises during outage issues -capital heavy future and Sylebra seemed to be doing a lot of the funding work already Maybe just not proficient for this stage"
X Link 2023-12-02T03:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"This happened over [--] years ago. Crazy to see the BS these type of accounts spin out for engagement. $wfc"
X Link 2023-12-05T01:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@John_Hempton Clearly talking chemistry. Any chemical process that can be done small can be done large but it could be a very long road with potentially multiple failed designs at scale. Asking if this is the team to pull this off is definitely the right question though"
X Link 2023-12-07T02:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@triangulate @Richard89022768 Taxable income by a fixed sum (straight line depreciation) every year. It actually saves the company money by reducing taxes or creating NOLs in the early years like you see here"
X Link 2023-12-22T23:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"2024 setup: $cve $val $tdw $rig & $jrngf for oil/energy $whc.ax & $hcc for coal $laac $sgml (short term play) $tmc $afmjf $pmet & $vale in the mining/material space $igic $pct & $orgn in the misfit/punt plays Position to add: China exposure. Let's run '23 back 🤣😂"
X Link 2023-12-31T20:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@triangulate @Namzes_G It's all about met this time around. Could see a pullback on weak divvy announcement but acquisition can close as early as April and that cash flow is getting priced in"
X Link 2024-01-04T04:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@calvinfroedge Taiwan election in a week China has done this for basically every election. Not abnormal. Only takes one time to be different but this isn't abnormal in of itself"
X Link 2024-01-06T03:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@fade_bears Hahaha the depths you have to probe to get any info on these guys"
X Link 2024-01-08T22:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@triangulate @EnergyCredit1 Mind boggling to see a 3.3b market cap on a business with under $400m in debt 1.6b in cash and a forward PE of 4-5x. Mr. Market is asleep at the wheel here"
X Link 2024-01-23T02:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@blondesnmoney I read some reports on $ogi two weeks ago in the $1.30's and I shelved it as I just didn't know enough. Trading $1.80's now. They had an investment of C$124m at C$3.22/share valuation ($2.40 USD) in Q4 to fund ops and acquisitions which is what peaked my interest"
X Link 2024-01-23T17:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@realcorycortez @John_Hempton @_dpgibson And being clear I'm FAR from a bull on $pct here. I have a Sub $3k call spread I'm exactly flat on. I wouldn't long equity here but the BK claim is flat out erroneous and had to be pushed back on"
X Link 2024-01-25T04:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@ds4scanner7 @TetonCapital1 @tradedollarnut @RGlavinich If the Biden administration doesn't allow exports of LNG that'll be a small offset - the swirling dance of factors are what make this so devilishly hard to predict. And fun lol I went long $btu equity and options 1/12-1/18 and +11% on equity and closed options+31.3%"
X Link 2024-01-27T03:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ds4scanner7 They have simply lagged far too much for their balance sheet thanks to Elliotts selling giving some space to the upside as that overhang clears. But I don't see myself allocating meaningful capital until Centurion is closer"
X Link 2024-01-28T18:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Built a decent position in $pypl as a bet on a stronger consumer/economy than people are pricing. Monetizing Venmo and the sheer scale of transaction volume handled globally gives them wide leeway on a turnaround - and while it might not be this quarter it's a '24 story"
X Link 2024-02-06T14:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Holding only [--] earnings trade this cycle: $pypl Used options early but closed the last calls yesterday (unfortunately in the morning vs at closing 🤦) and riding equity exclusively. Long [---] @ $60.93"
X Link 2024-02-07T14:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@tradedollarnut @mfwarder I don't think anyone disputes Q1 is weak but again 7.5-8.5 met after only [---] in Q1 + DCF on Centurion + EV sub $3b and you have a macro shift to the upside. Tide is rising sure Q1 is low but you've got a strong balance sheet going into expansion mode with Wards Well etc"
X Link 2024-02-08T15:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@jbulltard1 I suppose you said this about $meta bulls also"
X Link 2024-02-10T15:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Are Bulltard et al. just dumb or short and trying to spread FUD $nycb"
X Link 2024-02-10T16:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Patience is going to be rewarded here Q1 is going to be about how much they beat - not whether they meet guidance. Beat and raise leads to $75+ in May. $pypl In the last [--] quarters $pypl has beaten guides/estimates 10/12 and the two misses were a combined $.044. Anyone surprised by a lower guide than the street hasn't tracked this company. https://t.co/XTiBJpAbPP In the last [--] quarters $pypl has beaten guides/estimates 10/12 and the two misses were a combined $.044. Anyone surprised by a lower guide than the street hasn't tracked this company. https://t.co/XTiBJpAbPP"
X Link 2024-02-12T17:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Hey @espn where is "First place #Timberwolves rout 2nd place #Clippers""
X Link 2024-02-13T14:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Exited my $flme / $soc at $12.45 this week. It's an interesting situation and could prove super profitable but I simply don't know enough about their capital position with the PIPE coming up short so going to watch for a bit vs have skin in the game"
X Link 2024-02-16T21:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"13f highlight from Praetorian Capital and @hkuppy is the continuation of $amrk accumulation. 1/1/23 position = [--] shares 12/31/23 = [-------] for $31m Profiles as a precious metals seller to both wholesale and retail commercial lender and some smaller services like storage"
X Link 2024-02-18T15:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TenHagEra Man I hope you're just emotional and not serious. Clearly leading studs up into the player - doesn't matter if he touches the ball"
X Link 2024-02-18T18:12Z [---] followers, 56.4K engagements
"@realcorycortez @triangulate Most of these had terrible balance sheets on the edge of BK but thermal coal went to the moon post-covid and they all were able to pay off debt and recapitalize. The boom from that faded as everyone looked at them and either believes coal is dying in [--] years or has ESG qualms"
X Link 2024-02-19T02:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@realcorycortez @triangulate Market has mis-priced the cash generation ability of the coking/met group in with the thermal guys and whc is just moving into met on large scale via acquisition so puts them in that crowd going forward"
X Link 2024-02-19T02:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Strong results from one of my core holdings in $val. Nice capital return goals / BB increase. Would expect to see a [--] handle soon and potentially three digits left of the decimal by year end at $75-95 range oil $VAL out early with strong earnings -Increased total contract backlog to $3.9Bn+ representing a nearly 60% increase from [--] months ago -Increase in the Company's share repurchase program to $600 million from $300 million -Repurchased $50M of shares in 4Q $200M for year https://t.co/81OIGOfeuV $VAL out early with strong earnings -Increased total contract backlog to $3.9Bn+ representing"
X Link 2024-02-22T03:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@finchat_io Almost like anyone can cherry pick a single data point to make a bigger case $pypl"
X Link 2024-02-23T01:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Mike_Taylor1972 @John_Hempton Looking at the last year of this vs the market I don't think this is the brag you think it is"
X Link 2024-02-23T20:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@FordWealth @Mike_Taylor1972 @John_Hempton Comparing $pct to $nvda definitely makes you seem like a rational intelligent investor"
X Link 2024-02-23T20:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@FordWealth @Mike_Taylor1972 @John_Hempton No I'm wondering why Mike is preening his feathers about a giant L Years of time and thousands in losses and maybe just maybe hopeful that something changes by Q3"
X Link 2024-02-23T20:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Archie_155 @FordWealth @Mike_Taylor1972 @John_Hempton Ummm I also said exactly what they would do about the debt - it is basic math. Silimiar basic math shows the facility hasn't run at 10% of nameplate for a single month and the equity is down significantly because of it. https://x.com/StevenShadduck/status/1750339201978044871t=-642FfYy_anDkUK9JaCBTA&s=19 @John_Hempton @_dpgibson Couple of things on $pct: [--]. Restricted cash with trustee is $200m. Total port authority bonds are $249.5m so incremental $50m left to retire the milestone issue. [--]. $160m unrestricted cash + $150m revolver can"
X Link 2024-02-26T13:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Wow a serious buy right there for $rig. I've got $5 in $val for each $1 in $rig and think that's about the right balance. Damn $5m insider buy at $RIG offshore getting spicy @CorneliaLake / @hkuppy https://t.co/DECTRZG77m Damn $5m insider buy at $RIG offshore getting spicy @CorneliaLake / @hkuppy https://t.co/DECTRZG77m"
X Link 2024-03-01T00:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Closed 1/3 of my open $btu to add a substantial amount to $igic at $12.05. PE of [--] while growing premiums just about 20% annually - phenomenal value in the insurance space"
X Link 2024-03-01T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@onion61314 One party liquidating a position in a relatively illiquid market creates opportunity"
X Link 2024-03-01T16:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@John_Hempton Apes are the ideal counterparty"
X Link 2024-03-01T19:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@triangulate @KevinGarduno14 @realhagetaka Obviously as they make cash they'll keep doing capital return - but they didn't allocate any additional cash and therefore you need to look at PCI + Thermal as their biggest product mixes and calc future cash flows. Not simply look at Elliott"
X Link 2024-03-02T18:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@realcorycortez It has a sub [--] forward PE and had FCF of $4.2b in '23 $22b cash on hand $10b allocated to BB and a market cap of $64b. We're looking at very different things"
X Link 2024-03-03T00:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@realcorycortez I'm personally rolling weekly covered calls on my equity because I don't see a catalyst for a sustained gain until Q1 results not sure if I'd do options on it but I guess it depends on your risk tolerance. I generally stick to equity and only do minor option plays"
X Link 2024-03-03T04:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@realcorycortez I prefer laac for a few reasons: -already in production -lower cost region for operating -argentina stabilization angle with increased capital flow"
X Link 2024-03-04T03:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@realcorycortez Argentina has been experiencing capital flight for years because of rampant inflation and argentines essentially run a black market and hold USD for daily activities. Their entire economy has been undermined but with Milei they are seeing reduced govt and balanced budgets "
X Link 2024-03-04T13:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Was annoying to see my #lithium stocks down on the day while spot market keeps moving higher. Not smart enough to know what $alb is going to do with the $2b raise but have to think we're on the cusp of some significant M&A across the industry"
X Link 2024-03-05T01:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$70m for 15% of the development at Pastos Grandes values it at $466m 👀 Crazy to see a 770m market cap on this name when the industry is valuing the development at 446m. Cauchar-Olaroz is worth a hell of a lot more than the $330m difference. $laac Partners matter. @Lithium_ARG & @GanfengOfficial continue to work together. Good news for both parties & for #Argentina #lithium development. $LAAC https://t.co/h20vsKTRCR Partners matter. @Lithium_ARG & @GanfengOfficial continue to work together. Good news for both parties & for #Argentina #lithium development. $LAAC https://t.co/h20vsKTRCR"
X Link 2024-03-05T15:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Alexa show me "exit liquidity" $envx Mind boggling to see how Marc Cohodes and Reyes line the sheep up for slaughter. @indifferentia_ https://t.co/BnVbSTV4D5 Mind boggling to see how Marc Cohodes and Reyes line the sheep up for slaughter. @indifferentia_ https://t.co/BnVbSTV4D5"
X Link 2024-03-08T22:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CaptainRoyen It's a 34% EV premium to $whc who is getting their hands on significant met production next month and will have two full years of resulting cash flows before Centurion earns $1. There's long term value in $btu but the price point isn't sexy here compared to others"
X Link 2024-03-09T14:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CaptainRoyen There's no cash flow difference between $ spent on capex and $ spent on M&A the important question is what IRR is being obtained by the $ spend. $whc is using some debt which gives it leverage - and therefore a higher IRR on the spend IF hard coking prices remain durable"
X Link 2024-03-09T17:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@respeculator I think anyone who looks at a static commodity price and expects stocks to follow doesn't understand the minerals market. You have to look 12-18 months out and determine where the market is heading and that'll drive valuation more than spot today"
X Link 2024-03-10T18:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CaptainRoyen Sure but only one can monetize in the meantime. They also intend to sell off a Daunia stake "later" likely after integration with W. South. Both dramatically shift the IRR for capital deployment"
X Link 2024-03-11T00:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$igic special divvy at $.50 total $.51. Generally prefer buybacks for tax reasons but I only hold this in tax advantaged accounts so I'm not mad. Strong balance sheet + growing book set this up for a strong '24"
X Link 2024-03-12T20:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@triangulate @no_privacy @_dpgibson I mean look at what the last bond raise did to the stock and those were great terms. Why would the next raise coming this year be different"
X Link 2024-03-13T02:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ErikTinPeasant @TinInvestor @respeculator @JeffSawick @OG_TINBARON I think you've completely misunderstood everything I've said. I'm long with over 30k shares - keeping it around 5% of my portfolio. I also have reasonable expectations in light of regional risks"
X Link 2024-03-13T22:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Gonsalves sounds like a scorned lover - as if $30/share would somehow be a viable bid for the board 🤣😂 Honestly none of this reflects well on him / $clf. Showing a level of pettiness that rivals high school divas"
X Link 2024-03-15T01:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Closed $tdw yesterday and will look for a new entry. I think this is a position to "marry" not "date" but I think it's ripe for some level of pullback. Being consistent with more risk management in my positions is also important no matter the feels. $tdw $84.40 today. Oil moved from $75 to $80 and I'm +27% on this entry. Rode it from $48 - $72 last year as well. Love this stock. $tdw $84.40 today. Oil moved from $75 to $80 and I'm +27% on this entry. Rode it from $48 - $72 last year as well. Love this stock"
X Link 2024-03-16T15:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@blondesnmoney The lack of volume alone is what stopped me from looking further into it. One nearly illiquid company using all stock on another just gives me alarm bells"
X Link 2024-03-17T23:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@realhagetaka Check your math: 3/31/23 144.7m shares Today 128.36m shares $18 comparison at 144.7m = 2.605b market cap 2.605b / 128.36m = $20.29 The equivalent bottom would be 14% lower"
X Link 2024-03-26T17:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"China over-produces lithium to crash prices. China continues to produce at a loss into oversupplied market. China buys global lithium players at greatly reduced prices. As @YellowLabLife said it's really iron ore all over again"
X Link 2024-03-27T03:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Starting to ease back into $pypl - added [---] @ [-----] and sold a 4/12 $66 call on it for $.79"
X Link 2024-04-02T16:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Cut my last $tdw at $94.30 & put around 50% of proceeds into $val at $74.70. I'm not bearish oil or smart enough to know where it's going - using Russian cuts strength to trim some and rebalance seemed prudent. Likely leaving $rig this week - sitting on a small gain - we'll see"
X Link 2024-04-02T16:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Positions opened back up this week at 1/3 or 1/2 prior size: $pmetf $pypl $baba Want to increase: $vale $jrngf"
X Link 2024-04-02T22:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$whc.ax is the setup I'm salivating over - 12+ m/t added & blackwater is one of the cheapest cost met mines in Aus per ton. 20% sell down should only happen at 750-800m range or it's not worth losing the profits imo. Be patient and trust the process"
X Link 2024-04-05T01:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@triangulate Here's mine in order from largest position to smallest not as much overlap as I thought but a decent amount: Hcc Whitf Laac Val Sgml Vale Afmjf Ie Igic CVE Baba Pmetf Soc X Ptalf Joe Hg Flmmf Jrngf Pypl Thxpf Jrvr"
X Link 2024-04-06T18:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"And then there was 30k. I don't need 40k I would swoon just for stability over $30k. The amount of cash flow you'll see out of $afm.v is chef's kiss #Tin price: [-----] (+1690 +5.87%) 12:14pm London $Tin https://t.co/bAY5wJPYfN #Tin price: [-----] (+1690 +5.87%) 12:14pm London $Tin https://t.co/bAY5wJPYfN"
X Link 2024-04-09T11:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@mfwarder @tradedollarnut Issue with this thinking is that the underlying cost/price is encouraged to increase as long as the feds bail out borrowers. Unless the students apply discretion on cost the schools won't have incentive to limit tuitions. Any action on debt without action on cost is foolish"
X Link 2024-04-09T13:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@BichonRedux Yeah that's a huge negative with RH because you can't buy any OTC stocks at all. Eliminates it as a serious place for me to hold funds long term"
X Link 2024-04-10T01:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The degenerate play here keeps it interesting. The powerful people long class B will rake Shari over the coals if this closed talks proposition with Skydance doesn't either break off or come with a massive debt pay down / class B shares retirement makes even value on $para A's An attorney representing Aspen Sky Trust has sent a cease-and-desist letter to Shari Redstone over the Paramount-Skydance merger talks and the letter contains the threat of potential litigation on behalf of Paramount's shareholders. https://t.co/n3OVCm40Xk $PARA An attorney representing Aspen Sky Trust has sent a"
X Link 2024-04-11T13:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Watching commodities taking the bid and validating some of the thesis behind my '24-25 portfolio feels good. Long way to go but nice to start on the right path in markets like this"
X Link 2024-04-15T18:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@330yard_bomber No buybacks at all. Building Blue Creek and have enough cash on balance sheet to fund the capex. They aren't doing BB because it would make them lose their state NOLs. Going to have a huge cash pile by year end might make them reconsider BB starting in '25"
X Link 2024-04-17T01:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Playing $para more conservative and closed my calls at $.60 had opened at $.50. Have $12.50 calls written on 50% of equity for today and $12 on the other 50% for 4/26. Focusing on cash flow and steady gains vs YOLO/degen as I'm just not that type of guy and can't pretend to be"
X Link 2024-04-19T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@blondesnmoney It's a racket. Optum manages $17b in HSA funds and pays 0% interest on all balances. Only around 8% of accounts have their HSA in investments. Do the math on their interest rate arbitrage 👀 Oh and want to be an account with investments That's a $3/month fee for the option"
X Link 2024-04-20T20:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@realcorycortez Yeah the best ones are the ones that protect 10-20% on the downside while giving full upside participation to something closer to 20%. And absolutely it's a stage of life OR high net worth diversification product. Could argue it would be a HY savings replacement as well though"
X Link 2024-04-23T18:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@BichonRedux One of my favorite holdings at this point is $sgml as it's trading at 5x '25 FCF based on current spot lithium so you don't even need to bet on a price recovery for upside. The $100m to build out phase [--] is on the balance sheet already completion EOY '24"
X Link 2024-04-23T23:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@triangulate Literally hadn't traded on pink sheets since 4/18 at .8169 so figured a .84 buy a week later wasn't so high that I couldn't at least recover my outlay. It's so freaking illiquid I just knew people who do no DD on their own would buy and sure enough 90k shares today"
X Link 2024-04-26T19:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@triangulate Right but the issue is they had $200m tied up with the trustee along with specific timelines to achieve results. This is what kept interest rates reasonable for a company losing money every day they operate. What discount to par will they be able to reissue at"
X Link 2024-04-27T19:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Interesting watching $para play out - Skydance wants an extension on exclusivity to avoid a bidding war and the FUD being spread by shills of short holders is going to ramp to [--] to offset it. https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/ceo-bob-bakish-out-paramount-global-1235984507/ https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/ceo-bob-bakish-out-paramount-global-1235984507/"
X Link 2024-04-28T17:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I've seen a lot of bad $para takes from people I respect and follow on this app - think Bichon is the only account I follow that's actually nailed the narrative so far. Anyone else predict a tender offer Just me How's this for a prediction: Sony to offer this week. https://t.co/lpUhvQ50OX Anyone else predict a tender offer Just me How's this for a prediction: Sony to offer this week. https://t.co/lpUhvQ50OX"
X Link 2024-04-29T01:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Am long 2k $para shares but also have been in and out of options in small amounts. Had added [--] 6/21 $15 calls on Friday for $.45 had 12/15 fill this morning at $.70. Tidy little 55% only $375 but nice way to start a Monday"
X Link 2024-04-29T14:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Adding to $x / us steel here. Big River [--] is going to fundamentally remake the company Nippon would owe $565m (over $2.50/share) for break up and if the US govt is going to block an ally nation from acquisition they will follow with material support/tariffs to protect"
X Link 2024-04-29T16:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"At the risk of awakening the demons I'll just leave it untagged and say R I G only managed revenue growth of $22m from Q4 to Q1 despite a large run up in oil. It's not a "levered play on oil" - it needs contracts to pay to reactivate rigs and until that comes it's not a buy 🤷🏻♂"
X Link 2024-04-29T22:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$vale to $18 this year. Time to buy back stock. Could be $20+ but Brazil probably caps the upside. #IronOre back up to US$117/t 👀 $BHP $RIO $FMG $MIN $CIA #IronOre back up to US$117/t 👀 $BHP $RIO $FMG $MIN $CIA"
X Link 2024-04-30T00:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I put on close to 5k in options yesterday/this morning and deployed every dollar long because I firmly believe this fed is VERY political and will do it's absolute best to support the Biden administration and reelection chances. This Q&A isn't changing my mind at all"
X Link 2024-05-01T18:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Things you like to see as a shareholder $val And $VAL was a good bit better than everyone had feared. If you learn one thing from my Twitter account its that winners keep winning. $VAL remains the best run offshore player Now we get into the fun part where every QoQ is a rocket ship as new contract starts roll And $VAL was a good bit better than everyone had feared. If you learn one thing from my Twitter account its that winners keep winning. $VAL remains the best run offshore player Now we get into the fun part where every QoQ is a rocket ship as new contract starts roll"
X Link 2024-05-02T02:34Z [---] followers, 25.5K engagements
"$para update: traded another cycle of 6/21 $15 calls from $.44 to $.54 and closed this morning. Focused on using volatility to capitalize on two fronts the straight calls and selling covered calls on equity. Currently have [--] calls sold for $13 strikes expiring tomorrow"
X Link 2024-05-02T14:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$PARA if it closes over $13 tomorrow will have added a full percentage point to my YTD PnL. Not a bad [--] week play"
X Link 2024-05-02T18:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Officially cracking $150's on thermal for year end contracts. Looking very promising for my boys down under"
X Link 2024-05-03T03:17Z [---] followers, 10.3K engagements
"@triangulate Feeling the FOMO so hard right now - nice job staying the course"
X Link 2024-05-03T16:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"LOL @ $para - exactly why I've played this the way I have. So many rumors. I have $13c expiring today written against my 2k shares. It's up to the market gods what happens. Will be very happy to continue my strategy selling calls next week if we go below $13"
X Link 2024-05-03T18:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Ytd +13.32% $para play continues thanks to the close below $13. Debate will be another round of calls to sell or just close come Monday - going to depend on what headlines we see over the weekend I think"
X Link 2024-05-03T20:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Moethegreat31 No the 8-K shows it's reissuing the original bonds so would have same coupon payment terms as before. They also gave warrants up to [----] for 3.1m more shares at $11.50 so potentially rather dilutive as well"
X Link 2024-05-07T13:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@private_dataguy Not disputing that at all. Just calling a spade a spade. If they can ramp it'll just be about 2% dilutive. They just need to not get handcuffed in the capital markets as they try and pay for operations and then Augusta"
X Link 2024-05-07T13:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@realcorycortez How much $ are they borrowing to fund completion and what's the timeline to get to production on Augusta With all the delays I don't know anymore off hand. The balance sheet is going to be what limits equity values"
X Link 2024-05-08T00:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$igic moving into Lloyd's underwriting room is a nice step forward. $2.55 in [----] EPS and $.84 in Q1 strong capital return program while growing premiums. Just needs coverage and a higher profile to really re-rate. Forward PE around [--] when US insurance industry is [----] 👀"
X Link 2024-05-08T14:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"South side of Minneapolis doesn't generally get to enjoy the show - but the Northern Lights won't be denied tonight"
X Link 2024-05-11T03:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Out of rig pypl sbsw hims baba ptalf. / ptalf were break evens rest at a range of 5%-20% over the last month. Best performing was the rig call spread from .90 - [----] [--] names left. Haven't been this light in names in ages. http://Joy.to http://joy.to http://Joy.to http://joy.to"
X Link 2024-05-15T22:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@kingdomcapadv Completely agree. With the breakup fee and big River [--] rolling up soon major capex will be passed and while it may take until [----] without an acquisition it's a $55+ company in [--] months. Cliffs ceo is doing all he can to spread fud to distract from his own coming capex cluster"
X Link 2024-05-18T01:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Love $sgml as low cost with a green premium - I've shared my $20 PT by vocally. However it has ramped faster than I think lithium pricing is supporting and at 7x '25 FCF with current pricing I'm expecting some retracement barring new buyout headlines"
X Link 2024-05-18T15:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$para showing why it's often best to sell the rumor. Have checked out since the SD quiet period ended as that was the golden opportunity for headline trading. Ticking into $11's - back to no sale grind out a turnaround with no CEO $para position closed pre-market at $13.45. Was prepared to let the $13 calls be filled on Friday the "crash" to [-----] gave me an extra $900 selling pre-market today. No opinion on what happens now. $para position closed pre-market at $13.45. Was prepared to let the $13 calls be filled on Friday the "crash" to [-----] gave me an extra $900 selling pre-market today. No"
X Link 2024-05-20T17:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Blackjack155361 One thing if you're buying at a premium because of "M&A" but when you're buying a business that's going to do $200m in ebitda this year and $400m next in a price environment that's driving supply projects away while demand continues to build Non-issue"
X Link 2024-05-23T14:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@blondesnmoney Important to sell everything else so you can keep buying nvda"
X Link 2024-05-23T20:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$whc position is interesting here because the longer BHP/Anglo gets drawn out the better for their finances. Do you delay a BW sell down for another quarter+ to maximize operating cash flow and only close once closer to a possible bidding process"
X Link 2024-05-27T01:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Sentiment on $lac hurting $laac as well - imo creates opportunity as these companies aren't intertwined in any way. Only legit angle I could argue is legacy shareholders who got both on the split are bailing simultaneously on $lac implosion"
X Link 2024-05-29T01:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Agree here - M&A going to take the commodity world by storm over the next 12-18 months. $49b was 2x the Anglo market cap from 4/24 - shows what it takes to get world class assets. $BHP Anglo deal rejection.get long commodities 👀 $HSHP move sending a message BHP Abandons $49 Billion Bid After Anglo Holds Firm on Rejection https://t.co/hVFeyTT5sZ $BHP Anglo deal rejection.get long commodities 👀 $HSHP move sending a message BHP Abandons $49 Billion Bid After Anglo Holds Firm on Rejection https://t.co/hVFeyTT5sZ"
X Link 2024-05-29T15:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@blondesnmoney Oh yeah. $19 by year end if they can string two more strong quarters even if they don't they've demonstrated such strong underwriting that somebody will take notice eventually. It's a 6% position for me. Had been as high as 9%. Could see it getting back to 10% if we drop back"
X Link 2024-05-31T21:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@triangulate Yeah would just say legal community in general is very stirred up on this - as a moderate I'm fully in the "this shouldn't have happened" side as political theater that'll worsen already awful divisions. https://x.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1796577680919511048t=mVrDntxu9dRyPni30pNwgg&s=19 CNN Senior Legal Analyst Describes How The Trump Conviction Was A Political Hit Job [--]. "The judge donated money. in plain violation of a rule prohibiting New York judges from making political donationsto a pro-Biden anti-Trump political operation." [--]. Alvin Bragg boasted on"
X Link 2024-06-01T03:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Weekend vibes are strong 📈 Started a position on $NRP last month intend to add as a long term brokerage holding - tax implications are unique for MLPs so understand it before considering 🤝"
X Link 2024-06-01T16:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"My decision of the year so far was the exit from $btu: 1/3 sold at $24.50 to buy $igic at $12.05 2/3 sold at $27.xx for $hcc @ $56.15 and $whc via $whitf at $4.55"
X Link 2024-06-03T01:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ColhounLogan It's small for me - I have $ie who is a complicated combination of undeveloped resources and technology. Also have $fil.to as possibly the best undeveloped asset globally. Only actual "producer" I have is $vale and that's really just a tiny fraction of their business"
X Link 2024-06-03T01:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ColhounLogan So overall the percentages are small but it's in IE and Filo as two that would provide significant torque upwards in an acquisition situation if the bull continues"
X Link 2024-06-03T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@bhidesubodh1 It's like oil in a sense - it's everywhere but it's only economical in specific areas. A lot of uneconomical projects got capital in 2021-2022 and the cure for low prices is low prices. I own [--] lithium names:"
X Link 2024-06-04T02:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@bhidesubodh1 [--]. $sgml Making significant cash flow funding a build out for ramped production from cash on hand. Trades at 5.5x [----] FCF at today's prices. Doesn't need any change in market to be a strong compounder"
X Link 2024-06-04T02:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@HomosexualMan1 I'm down to only $val but I'm keeping it a little longer"
X Link 2024-06-05T21:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"To his credit Mr. Gill "proved" he isn't driving the stock and if sued could show that live stream as evidence with an overlay of how GME performed during it. Intrigued by what his exit plan will be next week"
X Link 2024-06-08T04:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I pitched $NRP to my finance friends thread a while back - hearing @YellowLabLife mention it on @moneyofminepod and I thought I'd share my pitch. It's an MLP so I own only in taxable accounts and I'm only 1/3rd of the position I want by year end. Front running myself a bit hah"
X Link 2024-06-10T17:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting to see the director sell 37% of their shares in $tdw yesterday. Not invested right now but a company I like so I'm watching. My only oil long is $val - only 3% off it's ATH buying back stock and contracts cycling this summer that will juice the bottom line"
X Link 2024-06-11T16:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Doubled my $NRP position this morning now at a 5.22% allocation. 7.5% is my target but with the brokerage only nature it means it'll be a slow climb to that level. I pitched $NRP to my finance friends thread a while back - hearing @YellowLabLife mention it on @moneyofminepod and I thought I'd share my pitch. It's an MLP so I own only in taxable accounts and I'm only 1/3rd of the position I want by year end. Front running myself a bit hah https://t.co/MhinUGowup I pitched $NRP to my finance friends thread a while back - hearing @YellowLabLife mention it on @moneyofminepod and I thought I'd"
X Link 2024-06-12T16:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$para [--] week low is $10.12 currently$11 arguably in better position now than Dec when it was trading in 15-17 range. Considering either a long equity + short call or just selling puts here. IV has been juiced obviously. 2.8% premium on the 6/21 $11p"
X Link 2024-06-13T01:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@crowdturtle Based on the distribution structure I don't see a 2x in terms of share price but rather think in terms of 18-20% CAGR which a material amount of that being dividends and distributions. I do think they are serious about "future materials" royalties and as they pay off their 1/2"
X Link 2024-06-13T01:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@crowdturtle Debt position over the next [--] months they will be having a serious conversation about how do they use their balance sheet for new growth. If they can find attractive IRR rights then I could see a real re-rate"
X Link 2024-06-13T01:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Had a back and forth on $val warrants yesterday - I'm long the equity as the only oil stock in my portfolio but the warrants are a degen play at best. Always funny to see a puke immediately after comments like this:"
X Link 2024-06-14T17:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Looking across markets I have a general sense that commodities are pricing much higher risk of a contraction than consensus. Looking at downside insurance on the broader indexes here. If the puts are a zero it'll be from resilient growth which is bullish materials and a win 🤷🏻♂"
X Link 2024-06-21T13:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@travelingsoftly What's your thought process It looks to me like they're going to have to fix the balance sheet to stabilize and seems early to be buying"
X Link 2024-06-22T13:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@blondesnmoney Just had seen this S1 and then searching the ticker there's very little on here"
X Link 2024-06-22T18:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ZugTrading @ZugDispatch Couple things: [--]. Anyone who references a US based basket is being lazy. [--]. 20-25% moves are part of the territory. Don't be in commodities if that frightens you. [--]. Trading vs Investing is very different. Find companies that make money at cycle bottoms. Think 3-5 yrs. Compound"
X Link 2024-06-27T20:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@EconstratPB Imagine the downward pressure on shelter from reduced interest rates About time they cut"
X Link 2024-06-29T02:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@realhagetaka @ImmaYieldGuy Then every operation that sells an on par quality level with the blend benefits because supply is gone for who knows how long. That's the entire point here"
X Link 2024-06-30T03:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Putting this out there for posterity: As a sizeable long holder of $HCC this pop seems overdone and I would be fading it as a short term play if I was a market timer / trader. The supply impacts are real but not +15%+ imo. Not changing my position long term very bullish"
X Link 2024-07-01T17:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Funny that $nrp didn't move until after lunchtime - rolled my morning HCC trade gains into it at $91.50 at 9am. Up to a 6.7% position now"
X Link 2024-07-01T18:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@crowdturtle Yeah lightly traded and Q2 results in a month + Look back at 5/2022 and that run had a period of consolidation until breaking out Nov/Dec. We've been consolidating for 6-7 months again might be breakout time"
X Link 2024-07-01T19:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@respeculator Point is you have the deferred contingent and capex associated all in there. So for a a$1.5b or so outlay you're still seeing 10%+ FCF yield on the investment at $220 met. It's paying for itself and your balance sheet builds while making decent FCF. It's a coup"
X Link 2024-07-02T03:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$pct update comes and stock drops after hours same day @John_Hempton tweets. Some things are just destiny. Would like to hear from anyone who can give context on the update We've provided a production update on our flagship purification facility in Ironton Ohio. Read more: https://t.co/L36vHRZ5aC https://t.co/Skbbd71T80 We've provided a production update on our flagship purification facility in Ironton Ohio. Read more: https://t.co/L36vHRZ5aC https://t.co/Skbbd71T80"
X Link 2024-07-02T21:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@tradedollarnut @mfwarder @dyer440 Expected to do up to 15mtpa. Year [--] who knows ramp ups vary greatly from what I've seen"
X Link 2024-07-05T16:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@triangulate I see a triple top and given the macro slowing and political landscape in Argentina still in enough flux I think it's premature to expect an acquisition - but could obviously be very wrong"
X Link 2024-07-06T18:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$sgml dropping to 8.75% of LME for the last shipment plus further decline in lithium making the numbers worse than below. Still compelling for this bottoming of the cycle imo I'm long [----] shares at [-----] avg but have covered call + hedge proceeds over $7k for adj basis $14.23 $sgml napkin math for nameplate: 520kt priced @ 9% of LME $483/t FOB + Royalties Est. 15m/q all other expenses (Q1 was $8.89m) LME today= $13557.50 (520kt * [--------] * .09) - (520kt * $483) - (15m * 4) = $323331000 EBITDA EV/EBITDA = [----] $sgml napkin math for nameplate: 520kt priced @ 9% of LME $483/t FOB + Royalties"
X Link 2024-07-06T19:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Curious if anyone follows @BichonRedux and what the current $para cope is since he blocked me for saying $rig wasn't a buy You can make money on volatile stocks without getting emotional but neither of these names is a buy-and-hold company right now"
X Link 2024-07-08T14:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Some shifts as we go into Q3: Whc / whitf 19.78% Cash 11.64% Sgml 10.38% Hcc 10.08% Igic 7.82% X 7.05% Nrp 6.35% Afm.v / afmjf 5.84% Vale 5.84% Laac 4.68% Ie 4.2% Val 2.96% Pmet / pmetf 2.51% Thx.v / thxpf .9% Position weights: Whitf 16% Hcc 11.2% Igic 9% Sgml 8.2% Laac 7.8% Vale 7% Afmjf 7% Val 6.3% Para 5.4% X 5.1% Pmetf 3.5% Baba 3.4% Ptalf 2.7% Ie 2.4% Flmmf 2.1% Jrngf 2% Thxpf .9% Position weights: Whitf 16% Hcc 11.2% Igic 9% Sgml 8.2% Laac 7.8% Vale 7% Afmjf 7% Val 6.3% Para 5.4% X 5.1% Pmetf 3.5% Baba 3.4% Ptalf 2.7% Ie 2.4% Flmmf 2.1% Jrngf 2% Thxpf .9%"
X Link 2024-07-08T16:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$sgml at today's price and 8.75% realized from last shipment: $243485000 ebitda LME hydroxide CIF could go from $12190 to $7000 and the math still gives positive ebitda from 520kt in '25. The floor here is very different from almost any other lithium player in the world. $sgml napkin math for nameplate: 520kt priced @ 9% of LME $483/t FOB + Royalties Est. 15m/q all other expenses (Q1 was $8.89m) LME today= $13557.50 (520kt * [--------] * .09) - (520kt * $483) - (15m * 4) = $323331000 EBITDA EV/EBITDA = [----] $sgml napkin math for nameplate: 520kt priced @ 9% of LME $483/t FOB + Royalties Est."
X Link 2024-07-08T21:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"-6% move in $hcc Probably a more reasonable price post-grosvenor. If no accidents or delays it's $110-120 in [----]. So a bit of a mute point for long term thinking but entries add up over time and making good ones helps. Putting this out there for posterity: As a sizeable long holder of $HCC this pop seems overdone and I would be fading it as a short term play if I was a market timer / trader. The supply impacts are real but not +15%+ imo. Not changing my position long term very bullish. Putting this out there for posterity: As a sizeable long holder of $HCC this pop seems overdone and I would"
X Link 2024-07-09T13:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"From $sgml investor presentation - the key perspective to keep as the lithium market trades in volatile ways. I won't be buying more but what I do have is set to be a 3-5yr hold unless some acquisition comes first. Looking forward to the flip to being a dividend payer in '25"
X Link 2024-07-10T01:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Hang it in the Louvre https://t.co/sv5GjZJHw6 https://t.co/sv5GjZJHw6"
X Link 2024-07-13T22:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$x is under the radar some right now - but seeing $clf pay a 100% premium for their acquisition should make people pay attention. If a Trump win is being priced in Nippon has materially higher odds of being approved in a lame duck session. Japan is an ally - $55/sh incoming. I've talked $x a few times and I entered back at $37 and have been writing calls at $42 just as I don't see it moving during the election cycle but the premiums are pretty high making it with the capital now. And while I raised cash to 26% this week I actually added to my X. I've talked $x a few times and I entered back"
X Link 2024-07-15T16:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Man what a contra that was. Still need to collect on that bet. Real talk: melt up likely continues - Goldilocks data keeps coming for the fed. Cracks are real though - at work I'm seeing reports with low income credit risk being flagged. Anecdotal but it's hitting radars. Anyone else have that one friend who is the ultimate contra Literally bottom ticked to the day. https://t.co/lROYzIJSL9 Anyone else have that one friend who is the ultimate contra Literally bottom ticked to the day. https://t.co/lROYzIJSL9"
X Link 2024-07-17T03:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PetjaYlitalo @blondesnmoney EPS is not reflective of SBC. It's not a "true expense" and there's lots from Buffett out there on that you can Google"
X Link 2024-07-18T00:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Digesting the $whc / $whc.ax results: -Production shows a near seamless transition at the mines logistics an issue at Daunia but it's solved. -Realized price less than expected. Need to see the gaps close in Sept Q. -Cost trend is concerning. Guidance range for FY25 is key"
X Link 2024-07-19T03:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@zweidner @crowdturtle Yes unless I'm doing something shorter to harvest premium - but that's more speculation. On my long holdings I like to sell for "income" trade off could be missing out on a 30% move. So picking time windows and deciding what gain % you target is key"
X Link 2024-07-20T20:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Not really a TA person but the base $NRP has been building in '24 is a beauty. Soda ash stabilized coal was so-so but $60m of FCF for Q2 should be baseline (Q1 $72m) and around a 20% levered / 18% unlevered yield"
X Link 2024-07-23T18:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Seawolfcap @private_dataguy I don't think it's a bad thesis to say: [--]. Management has met no milestones on schedule [--]. Company is losing money Combining makes the odds of an equity raise high. Gibson has bankrolled and made debt possible vs equity issuance but how much longer can that well last"
X Link 2024-07-25T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The cure for low prices is low prices. Call me irrational but I like the R/R in the lithium space 🤷🏻♂ African supply is low grade. China majors are losing huge sums. Low cost South American producers are set up to perform over the coming 1-2 years. For me it's $laac & $sgml"
X Link 2024-07-26T20:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@triangulate Yeah I got timing wrong on Filo selling at $19.50 vs $23 after the buyout and not making that mistake on IE while waiting on the Ma'aden JV drill program. I don't know what's going on with tintic but hog heaven has potential and Santa Cruz is significant"
X Link 2024-07-31T14:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I'm a big fan of my Google Pixel. I'm a big fan of Sheets Maps Docs Drive etc I'm not a big fan of bias being programmed in intentionally. "Trump rally" returning Harris ATL rally as top stories vs "Harris rally" coming up specifically only Harris News is appalling"
X Link 2024-07-31T23:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Had exited $val at an equivalent of $77.15 post earnings and with today's drop I sold cash secured puts for 9/20 at $70 for $1.95. Either sets up a 2.75% return on cash in addition to yielding MM rate through 9/20 or gives me an effective entrance of $68.05. Oil was a phenomenal exit in April I only kept VAL to sell calls on. Down to [---] shares with ATM $75 calls sold for 7/19 @ $2.15 per. VAL seems to be building a base so it'll stay on my watchlist. Would love to rebuild a position in the $60's. Oil was a phenomenal exit in April I only kept VAL to sell calls on. Down to [---] shares with ATM"
X Link 2024-08-01T15:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@YellowLabLife People who invest 100% in SPX and think they're diversified with 20% allocated to apple Microsoft and Nvidia and 30% Mag7"
X Link 2024-08-01T23:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Sold $9 puts on $sgml today. Feeling frisky"
X Link 2024-08-02T22:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@triangulate EPS includes capex but as depreciation. So it impacts because it's a real cost but only a portion hits per year. So the asset shows on the balance sheet and the asset value is written down as the depreciation is captured as an expense"
X Link 2024-08-04T19:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@triangulate Knowing which is a better indicator depends on the business. For example coal miners have large OpEx that aren't optional if they want to stay in business so FCF is more important. Separating types of capex is the crucial part to understanding operating CF conversion to FCF"
X Link 2024-08-04T19:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"#coal royalyies are my preferred safe haven"
X Link 2024-08-05T17:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@HomosexualMan1 I've never understood the desire to attach to a sub-par company. I get they didn't go through BK like the others so some goodwill from OGs who didn't get wiped out. But willingly buying that balance sheet Woof"
X Link 2024-08-05T23:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$nrp - FCF just under my baseline - recognized $1.1m more interest expense as they increased their credit facility to do more redemptions. Fine by me I'm not going to sweat that. The capital returns reflected here are 💪 Not really a TA person but the base $NRP has been building in '24 is a beauty. Soda ash stabilized coal was so-so but $60m of FCF for Q2 should be baseline (Q1 $72m) and around a 20% levered / 18% unlevered yield. https://t.co/38LjuErMKQ Not really a TA person but the base $NRP has been building in '24 is a beauty. Soda ash stabilized coal was so-so but $60m of FCF for Q2"
X Link 2024-08-07T13:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@crowdturtle Yeah the unit based comp is high a bit annoying - compared to net income it's about 6% for the quarter. Redeeming the preferreds aggressively is better than a straight BB I would expect to see the BB of common ramp after the preferreds are all rolled off"
X Link 2024-08-07T13:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@private_dataguy That had insurance coverage though so it wasn't $12m from only company money. They didn't break it down which is frustrating for investors"
X Link 2024-08-08T15:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@lurker8679 Just looking at the cash used - add up and just under $35m in what are a mix of recurring and non-recurring expenses from the quarter"
X Link 2024-08-08T17:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@triangulate Yeah she threatened legal action if they tried to force something through. So will be interesting obviously way past the [--] year rule so just a bunch of people operating blindly"
X Link 2024-08-09T20:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"11 shipments of 22kt in [--] months annualized at 242kt vs nameplate of 270kt. Not bad for a first year. Noticed they didn't mention price realized in this PR - that's a red flag from me. $sgml SIGMA LITHIUM COMPLETES FULL YEAR OF CONSISTENT OPERATIONAL CADENCE WITH 22000t OF QUINTUPLE ZERO GREEN LITHIUM LOADED AT THE PORT; ACHIEVED ZERO WORK ACCIDENTS FOR [---] DAYS $SGML https://t.co/Tnhockxgsh SIGMA LITHIUM COMPLETES FULL YEAR OF CONSISTENT OPERATIONAL CADENCE WITH 22000t OF QUINTUPLE ZERO GREEN LITHIUM LOADED AT THE PORT; ACHIEVED ZERO WORK ACCIDENTS FOR [---] DAYS $SGML https://t.co/Tnhockxgsh"
X Link 2024-08-13T13:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Would like to see Ana's resignation notice tomorrow morning. You can't just not release earnings the date you set. $sgml"
X Link 2024-08-16T02:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Been selling puts in names I like at prices I like. Last weeks: 9/20 $ie $7.50 @ $.65 9/20 $val $70 @ $7.40"
X Link 2024-08-19T13:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing