# ![@StableBread Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1296289507336167424.png) @StableBread StableBread

StableBread posts on X about business, stocks, debt, ai the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1296289507336167424/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1296289507336167424/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +111%
- [--] Month [-----] -3%
- [--] Months [-------] +957%
- [--] Year [-------] +745%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1296289507336167424/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1296289507336167424/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +222%
- [--] Month [--] -35%
- [--] Months [---] +180%
- [--] Year [---] +1,405%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1296289507336167424/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1296289507336167424/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +0.30%
- [--] Month [-----] +0.39%
- [--] Months [-----] +43%
- [--] Year [-----] +61%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1296289507336167424/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1296289507336167424/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [countries](/list/countries)  [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands)  [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 

**Social topic influence**
[business](/topic/business), [stocks](/topic/stocks), [debt](/topic/debt), [ai](/topic/ai), [investment](/topic/investment), [cash flow](/topic/cash-flow), [balance sheet](/topic/balance-sheet), [money](/topic/money), [flow](/topic/flow), [market cap](/topic/market-cap)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@fcompounders](/creator/undefined) [@steadycompound](/creator/undefined) [@ifbpodcast](/creator/undefined) [@longequity](/creator/undefined) [@tacticzh](/creator/undefined) [@brianferoldi](/creator/undefined) [@qcompounding](/creator/undefined) [@renesellmann](/creator/undefined) [@leevalueroach](/creator/undefined) [@realroseceline](/creator/undefined) [@valueinvestshow](/creator/undefined) [@saxenapuru](/creator/undefined) [@valueinvestorac](/creator/undefined) [@skhetpal](/creator/undefined) [@koyfincharts](/creator/undefined) [@tsohinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@stockmarketnerd](/creator/undefined) [@finchatio](/creator/undefined) [@thexcapitalist](/creator/undefined) [@gabgrowth](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)](/topic/$bkng) [Ferrari N.V. (RACE)](/topic/$race) [Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)](/topic/$adbe) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [Deckers Outdoor, Corp. (DECK)](/topic/$deck) [Intuit Inc. (INTU)](/topic/$intu) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [The Root Network (ROOT)](/topic/$root) [Thor Industries, Inc. (THO)](/topic/$tho) [Nebius Group N.V. Class A Ordinary Shares (NBIS)](/topic/$nbis) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Helion (HLN)](/topic/$hln) [Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A)](/topic/berkshire-hathaway) [Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)](/topic/costco) [GM (GM)](/topic/$gm) [Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)](/topic/$enph) [Netflix Inc (NFLX)](/topic/$nflx) [Duolingo, Inc.  (DUOL)](/topic/$duol) [GSK plc (GSK)](/topic/$gsk) [Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON)](/topic/$axon) [Now Coin (NOW)](/topic/$now) [General Electric Company (GE)](/topic/$ge) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) [Coca-Cola Co (KO)](/topic/$ko) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Lesson 3: The Strengths and Pitfalls of Thematic Investing Sustainable energy produced clear winners: $BYD and $TSLA in electric vehicles Vestas Wind and Terna Energy in wind power LONGi Green Energy and $ENPH in solar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1960325953328148890)  2025-08-26T12:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Check out our all-encompassing automated stock analysis spreadsheet powered by @wisesheets add-on for instant access to stock financials and company information"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1706807268606632081)  2023-09-26T23:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Discover why Earnings Per Share (EPS) is flawed and isn't the best metric for stock analysis. Our new article details its limitations and offers better alternatives for assessing a company's profitability financial health and value:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1714066799363256640)  2023-10-16T23:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"New article providing an in-depth understanding on how to estimate the perpetual (aka stable) dividend growth rate in dividend discount models:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1729270004225302848)  2023-11-27T22:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Comprehensive article on the Two-Stage DDM a model that has two distinct phases of dividend growth -- an initial phase of extraordinary growth followed by a phase of stable growth into perpetuity:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1731810399719206982)  2023-12-04T22:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"New article explaining mid-year discounting the use of stub period and stub period + mid-year discounting in discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation models. Includes a free Excel DCF template:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1738828077226934620)  2023-12-24T07:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Put together a comprehensive article explaining how to forecast free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) aka unlevered free cash flow (UFCF). This is particularly useful for DCF valuations. Used Crocs (CROX) as the example company. Includes a free Excel model:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1767289503591330150)  2024-03-11T20:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Another pros/cons list this time for the comparable company analysis (comps) valuation model:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1769225596138045491)  2024-03-17T04:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"New comprehensive article on how to effectively rebalance your investment portfolio. Discusses its importance the various rebalancing strategies and the different approaches for rebalancing a portfolio (multiple studies included including our own):"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1770947235145977952)  2024-03-21T22:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Learn how to quickly value stocks like Peter Lynch in my newest article (free Excel template included): This is effectively the PEG ratio inverted with the addition of the dividend yield. https://stablebread.com/peter-lynch-stock-valuation/ https://stablebread.com/peter-lynch-stock-valuation/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1792018112121807021)  2024-05-19T02:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Learn how to consider expected earnings growth dividend yield business risk financial risk and earnings visibility risk to derive an absolute P/E valuation (for stock valuations) offering an edge over the market-based P/E ratio: https://stablebread.com/absolute-pe-valuation/ https://stablebread.com/absolute-pe-valuation/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1795326394521755967)  2024-05-28T05:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Learn how to apply the reverse DCF model to estimate the implied growth rate of a company's free cash flow (FCF) over its forecast period starting from its current stock price: We use $NET as our example company (free Excel template included). https://stablebread.com/reverse-discounted-cash-flow/ https://stablebread.com/reverse-discounted-cash-flow/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1806157208540877091)  2024-06-27T02:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@F_Compounders What are your thoughts on this ROIC formula instead: ROIC = Owners earnings / (Long-term debt + Stockholders' equity)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1829434644577636394)  2024-08-30T08:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@F_Compounders Agree that by indexing you're likely overpaying. But at the same time like Klarman says it's really the only choice for most investors who don't/won't know how to pick securities and aren't thinking from a "value investor perspective" as Klarman is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1830851524102070499)  2024-09-03T06:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@long_equity That pretty much covers it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1831129485187412093)  2024-09-04T00:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BrianFeroldi Dividend yield on cost is even better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1831381151963082930)  2024-09-04T17:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@saxena_puru Agreed my understanding right now is most employment growth is government-related not private. And historically when the Fed has acted (i.e by reducing rates) it's too late -- like you said"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1832267271143575950)  2024-09-07T03:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@ValueInvestorAc True all it takes is one strong conviction and investment allocation to make it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1832634480483319884)  2024-09-08T04:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@skhetpal Never heard much of these other students of Graham thanks for sharing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1832635333214613686)  2024-09-08T04:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@SteadyCompound INTC comes to mind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1832671077580878226)  2024-09-08T06:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SteadyCompound All good points but I believe they still have a lot more room to grow internationally + w/in fitness consumers who like their drinks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1832915357612356070)  2024-09-08T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"My observation is that friends/people I know who drink it seem to prefer/seek it out over other energy drinks which may mean something. Not sure on how strong their brand loyalty is I don't see how other brands can't advertise similar benefits than what is on Celsius' packaging"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1832923075093975246)  2024-09-08T23:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ValueMilan Why not both. Take advantage of benefits of indexing and finding opportunities for asymmetric returns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1833226580740493437)  2024-09-09T19:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"They haven't made their main product (search) better for the average consumer in the last [--] years at the very least. Crushed lot of smaller sites that were publishing quality content have regularly had poor AI releases fact is that less people are using Google given privacy (DuckDuckGo) different consumer behaviors (e.g. using TikTok/Perplexity) and of course ChatGPT + other LLMs that are just better for various scenarios"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1833263799555551355)  2024-09-09T21:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Nice post I would add that you can average down in cases where lower performance is not due to the business/management decisions itself. as long as they have sustainable runway/believable guidance. E.g. some sort of supply/demand scenario where COGS for product rises but probably only temporarily (happened more frequently during COVID times)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1833289255151423725)  2024-09-09T23:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@KoyfinCharts It's beautiful"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1833531048678006920)  2024-09-10T15:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TSOH_Investing Nice find"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1833531459715666075)  2024-09-10T15:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DeepSailCapital Or they could hire more workers and increase overall output maybe not applicable in certain job functions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1834053275651285488)  2024-09-12T02:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@IFB_podcast Take out stock based comp expense non recurring items in OCF and only subtract maintenance CapEx and it becomes a lot more useful too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1834271107920064982)  2024-09-12T16:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@InvestingCanons Patience and due diligence is key"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1834760585059189019)  2024-09-14T01:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@QCompounding Investing at IPO is usually a bad idea yes. But if the company has clear pathway to profitability and most other items check out why not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1835558538749349916)  2024-09-16T05:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@long_equity $MSCI is definitely a good one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1835734421686669665)  2024-09-16T17:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SteadyCompound He's worked there practically his whole life and worked his way to the top definitely bullish on him returning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1836950424215056744)  2024-09-20T02:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@KoyfinCharts Interesting I would've assumed $MC to be #1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1837155484970737680)  2024-09-20T15:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@StockMarketNerd @finchat_io I believe there's a trend of a lot of smaller sites failing to generate any significant traction/views due to SEO changing to favor larger sites more + AI. Do you agree/think this may impact Cloudflare's market share significantly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1837156797095817223)  2024-09-20T15:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@StockMarketNerd @finchat_io True some of the LLMs provide links but if user is getting what they want from AI there's no need for them to navigate to those sites"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1837157698762100838)  2024-09-20T15:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Vivek_Investor Buying stocks because they're hot is a great way to increase the chances of poor selling decisions 😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1837743493260734920)  2024-09-22T06:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@skhetpal Haven't heard of a couple of these thanks for sharing Similar to branding is "cultural moat" as well btw like how many investors like $BYND due to their environmental + sustainable cause"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1838276030064398495)  2024-09-23T17:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TSOH_Investing Great quote somehow never seen it before"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1839464121864986957)  2024-09-27T00:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@QCompounding Pretty good overview but owners earnings is more of a FCF calculation not EPS and dividend yield"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1841874724906848727)  2024-10-03T16:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ValueInvestorAc I use a modified version on occasion but rarely. With the [---] lower more like [---] using diluted EPS instead sometimes adjusting the 2g to 1.5g. Also I tend to prefer the risk-free rate on government bonds over AAA corporate bonds for the discount rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1843111109148266836)  2024-10-07T02:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SteadyCompound Just make sure ur not learning from hallucinations 😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1847139036974272684)  2024-10-18T04:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@thexcapitalist Prob right but a couple questions I'd want more info on is (1) how much more efficient will robots/Ai make Amazon's operations (2) Cost to invest in solutions to replace workforce + ongoing maintenance cost forecasts. Def agree on Ai agents note tho"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1847265517536514358)  2024-10-18T13:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@IFB_podcast Dividend yield on cost is another good one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1857986528565219742)  2024-11-17T03:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SteadyCompound Someone needs to make some kind of magical market noise filter tool for social media 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1860592490664841242)  2024-11-24T07:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@long_equity You don't like Mastercard/Visa Or just don't follow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1861919696414495003)  2024-11-27T23:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ReneSellmann Must be all those weighted ETFs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1867346657584541908)  2024-12-12T23:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"🧵 Last weekend I attended Berkshire Hathaway's 60th annual meeting in Omaha Here are the key takeaways for investors from the 6+ hour event including leadership transition financial results and Buffett's views on current economic/market issues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1920826108129538355)  2025-05-09T13:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2/ Greg Abel has been with Berkshire for 25+ years and promises to maintain the same philosophy: protect Berkshire's reputation keep a fortress balance sheet manage risk and take a long-term perspective on investments"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1920826132808822906)  2025-05-09T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3/ Q1 [----] financial results were mixed. Operating earnings missed expectations insurance underwriting earnings fell due to LA fires but cash reached a massive $347.7 billion (up from $334.2 billion at end of 2024)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1920826144632492218)  2025-05-09T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"10/ Auto insurance will change dramatically with self-driving cars. Ajit Jain: "Most insurance revolves around operator errors. With self-driving cars it'll be substituted by product liability.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1920826227633651760)  2025-05-09T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"11/ Energy business faces challenges: "Berkshire Hathaway Energy is worth considerably less now than two years ago due to changing utility regulations and industry trends" says Buffett. Wildfire risks are increasing each year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1920826239411253413)  2025-05-09T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The Federal Reserve balances two important goals: keeping prices stable (2% inflation) and maximizing employment (4.2% unemployment rate). This bullseye chart shows their target zone in gold - where both goals are met at the same time. When we hit this sweet spot the economy can grow steadily without prices rising too quickly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1921233273214431485)  2025-05-10T15:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"2/ "Street lag" creates opportunity windows. Wall Street often discovers good companies months or years late. By then you could already be invested before big money floods in. Lynch says this window stays open long enough for alert individuals to act"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1921672189327356345)  2025-05-11T21:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3/ Examples of consumer trends beating Wall Street: - $CELH: If you spotted Celsius in gyms before its mainstream popularity you beat the 2690% five-year gain. - $CMG: Chipotle customers who noticed quality ingredients were ahead of its 2000% gain since [----]. - $ONON: On Holdings' running shoes built a devoted following before outperforming the market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1921672201205694652)  2025-05-11T21:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Tomorrow we'll be releasing a newsletter post explaining how to make financial statements more useful by adjusting for intangible assets. It's based on Michael Mauboussin's [----] paper on "Intangibles and Earnings.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1923817641661399525)  2025-05-17T19:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"9/ [--] G4 = [--] if VARROA Ind. Median VARROA Stable earnings suggest that current strong performance is more likely to persist rather than being a lucky one-time occurrence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1923846599119339660)  2025-05-17T21:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"10/ [--] G5 =1 if VARSGR Ind. Median VARSGR Similar to earnings stability stable sales growth indicates that a company's expansion is more predictable and sustainable. Sales growth is typically more persistent and less affected by accounting choices as observed in Damodaran's [----] book "The Dark Side of Valuation.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1923846611073179968)  2025-05-17T21:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"1/ The problem When software companies like $PLTR invest in things like R&D and customer relationships accounting rules make them expense these costs immediately. This makes their profits look lower than they really are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1924129369133580415)  2025-05-18T15:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"2/ The solution Treat intangible investments the same way we treat tangible ones: [--]. Identify which expenses on the income statement are actually investments. [--]. Move these investments to the balance sheet (capitalize them). [--]. Amortize them over their useful lives"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1924129380957388931)  2025-05-18T15:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3/ Following Michael Mauboussin's [----] paper "Intangibles and Earnings" I calculated how Palantir's FY2024 numbers change if we treat 70% of their $1989M in SG&A and R&D as investments (amortized over [--] years). We'll assume 12% expense growth based on historical CAGR:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1924129397910696021)  2025-05-18T15:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Yesterday we published a post explaining how to make financial statements more useful by adjusting for intangible investments. We used $PLTR as the example company"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1924616105190162846)  2025-05-20T00:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2/ Check for return on equity (ROE) of at least 20% that continues for several years. This shows a company efficiently turns shareholder investments into profits and can reinvest those earnings at high rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1924857735906263322)  2025-05-20T16:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3/ Find companies where leaders own a big piece of the business (10-20% or more). Sam Walton at Walmart Jeff Bezos at Amazon and Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway all had major stakes in their companies which became 100-baggers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1924857747730006176)  2025-05-20T16:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"6/ The best 100-baggers grow through two factors: 1) Rising earnings 2) Expanding P/E ratios If a company's earnings grow 20x and investors become willing to pay 5x more for each dollar of earnings you get a 100x return"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1924857783255761260)  2025-05-20T16:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"7/ Value companies that buy back their own shares wisely. For example AutoNation reduced its share count by 65% over [--] years (about 8.4% each year) which helped its stock price rise by 520% during that time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1924857795092082975)  2025-05-20T16:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"16/ 3: Financial Tenets (7-10): How Buffett analyzes a company's numbers and financial performance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1925660630825996638)  2025-05-22T21:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"17/ Tenet #7: Focus on return on equity (ROE) not earnings per share (EPS). While analysts use EPS Buffett considers this misleading"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1925660643199193353)  2025-05-22T21:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Companies managed by billionaires beat the market by 7% annually. It's not because they're smarter. It's because their personal wealth is often tied to the company's performance. When CEOs own 10-20% of their company they think more like owners not employees. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1927348071450505626)  2025-05-27T12:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"1/ Take the obvious examples: Sam Walton owned significant Walmart Stock Jeff Bezos held massive Amazon stakes Warren Buffett's wealth is tied to Berkshire Hathaway"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1927348087514628479)  2025-05-27T12:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The inverted yield curve has predicted every recession in the past [--] years with a perfect [--] for [--] track record. Here's what the yield curve is why it matters and what investors should do when it changes shape. 🧵👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1927784551394443349)  2025-05-28T17:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/ The yield curve is a graph that shows interest rate differences between short and long-term government bonds. You plot Treasury bond yields on the y-axis and their maturities on the x-axis creating a curve. Most investors track the 10-year minus 2-year spread"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1927784567093743990)  2025-05-28T17:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"10/ So what should you do when the yield curve inverts Don't panic sell everything or try to time the market exactly. Instead review your risk tolerance ensure you have a strong emergency fund and create a watchlist of quality companies you'd like to own at better prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1927784674723778708)  2025-05-28T17:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"11/ History shows that great companies survive recessions. Market corrections create opportunities to buy quality businesses at discount prices. If you're prepared with cash and a plan an inverted yield curve provides advance notice to position yourself for the opportunities ahead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1927784686820151691)  2025-05-28T17:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"12/ Overall the yield curve visualizes something simple--the difference in interest rates across bond maturities. But its consistent track record of predicting recessions makes it important to track for any investor trying to understand where we are in the economic cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1927784699021382013)  2025-05-28T17:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"After every great bull market history shows us the same pattern. Stock markets move sideways for years going nowhere. But some companies still deliver strong returns during these flat periods. Here's how to find them: 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1928437272426520599)  2025-05-30T13:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"7/ Good managers make tough decisions that benefit long-term shareholders even when quarterly results suffer. They resist pressure to sacrifice competitive advantages for short-term gains. This discipline separates great companies from mediocre ones over time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1928437355553378776)  2025-05-30T13:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"8/ [--] Predictable earnings The early 2000s exposed fake consistency. Enron WorldCom Bristol-Myers Squibb and even General Electric manipulated their numbers. Real predictability comes from business models not accounting games"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1928437367284879808)  2025-05-30T13:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"13/ Katsenelson recommends these cash-based metrics when analyzing debt: Debt / EBITDA Debt / CFO EBITDA / Interest Expense CFO / Interest Expense These show actual ability to service debt not just balance sheet ratios"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1928437426596589709)  2025-05-30T13:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"14/ [--] Significant free cash flow (FCF) FCF = CFO - CapEx It's money left after paying everything including growth investments. Strong FCF provides: Share buyback power Dividend capacity Acquisition currency Downturn protection"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1928437438416039998)  2025-05-30T13:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"9/ These arguments appear sophisticated and appeal to our desire to participate in new opportunities. The reality however is that fundamental economic principles rarely change"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1929568854033961055)  2025-06-02T16:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"10/ During the housing bubble many believed nationwide home prices couldn't fall simultaneously. In the dot-com bubble investors thought internet companies didn't need profits. Both beliefs were proven catastrophically wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1929568865669009642)  2025-06-02T16:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IFB_podcast $FICO is too good but still a bit overvalued"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1929936354143510718)  2025-06-03T16:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"ROE = Profit Margin Asset Turnover Financial Leverage This breakdown shows if high returns come from competitive advantages (margins) operational efficiency (turnover) or borrowed money (leverage). The best companies excel at the first two"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1930295879988302218)  2025-06-04T16:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Portfolio rebalancing keeps your investments aligned with your goals risk tolerance and time horizon yet many investors don't know which method works best for their situation. Here are [--] different approaches investors use each with specific advantages and drawbacks: 🧵👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1930973017930441169)  2025-06-06T13:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MMoney642 Would also consider $ORCL as a competitor to $AMZN AWS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1931736399360794697)  2025-06-08T15:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"10/ Now let's understand what drives ROE. Debt is a major factor. Companies boost ROE by borrowing but only if they earn more on investments than they pay in interest. The math uses book values from financial statements not market prices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1932784777733742861)  2025-06-11T12:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"11/ Formula: ROE = ROIC + D/E (ROIC - i (1 - t)) where: ROIC = Return on invested capital D/E = Debt to equity ratio i = Interest rate on debt t = Tax rate Positive leverage happens when ROIC exceeds after-tax interest cost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1932784789666607576)  2025-06-11T12:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Most people don't realize there are two completely different types of Wall Street analysts with opposite incentives. 👇 Buy-Side Analysts: Research for hedge funds & asset managers Keep analysis secret for internal use Paid based on portfolio performance Sell-Side Analysts: Work for banks & brokerages Publish research widely to clients Paid through commissions & relationships One seeks returns. The other seeks relationships. Understanding this difference explains why public analyst recommendations often conflict with what smart money is actually doing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1933192329978052636)  2025-06-12T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2 Legal problems: Severe legal issues can create tremendous financial uncertainty for companies. These problems can force businesses to seek bankruptcy court protection even when their underlying operations might otherwise be profitable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1933267591306621365)  2025-06-12T20:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3 Financial problems: Results almost entirely from carrying too much debt. Many companies that issued junk bonds in the 1980s shared this experience where the business itself was viable but the debt burden proved unsustainable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1933267603163918459)  2025-06-12T20:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3/ Option 2: Propose an Exchange Offer Companies can ask creditors to swap existing debt for new less burdensome securities. It's like renegotiating your mortgage without going to court. Sounds simple right Not quite"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1933510117573746698)  2025-06-13T13:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"4/ Exchange offers face a major problem: the free-rider issue. Unlike stockholders who can be forced to accept merger terms if 50-67% agree bondholders can't be compelled to participate. Each one decides individually"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1933510129443623319)  2025-06-13T13:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"6/ The solution Prepackaged bankruptcy. Creditors agree to reorganization terms before filing. Then bankruptcy law requires only a majority in number and 2/3 of dollar amount to bind everyone including holdouts. This eliminates the free-rider problem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1933510152998866959)  2025-06-13T13:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"7/ Option 3: File for Bankruptcy Protection When everything else fails companies file Chapter [--] to reorganize with sustainable debt levels. Despite reforms bankruptcy still carries stigma making it the last resort for most companies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1933510165220966451)  2025-06-13T13:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BrianFeroldi @MorningstarInc Another example -- Union Pacific $UNP has a very strong moat (railroads)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1933649347784106486)  2025-06-13T22:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Michael Price a bankruptcy investor cited in Seth Klarman's "Margin of Safety" (2011) describes three distinct stages of bankruptcy investing each with different risk and return profiles: Stage 1: Occurs immediately after the Chapter [--] filing and offers the greatest uncertainty but also the biggest opportunities. Financial statements may be late or missing hidden liabilities are not yet clear and the underlying business may still be unstable. Many holders get forced to sell regardless of price creating potential bargains. Stage 2: Involves negotiating the reorganization plan starting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1933916343079977173)  2025-06-14T15:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@leevalueroach Some shipping energy REIT specialty finance stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1934732777771159758)  2025-06-16T22:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@leevalueroach $CRWS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1934741710338236861)  2025-06-16T22:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/ A large part of your investment returns comes from the industry itself not the specific company. Individual business profitability tends to trend toward the industry average over time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1934958480429097393)  2025-06-17T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"2/ So how do you spot a good industry Look at the distribution of returns on invested capital (ROIC) across all companies. Good industries show narrow ranges. Bad industries show wide gaps between winners and losers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1934958492315685257)  2025-06-17T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3/ Example: From 2000-2010 pharmaceutical companies maintained ROIC between 13% and 21%. That's a narrow 8-point range. Even the worst performers weren't far from the best"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1934958504055632140)  2025-06-17T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"4/ Compare that to oil and gas companies in the same period: ROIC ranged from 3% to 15%. That's a 12-point spread showing a much tougher environment where success is harder to achieve"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1934958515950641327)  2025-06-17T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"5/ Steve Lister of Imperial Capital (a Toronto-based PE firm) developed one of the most complete industry evaluation systems. His firm uses a 100-point scorecard to assess industry economics before investing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1934958527833145560)  2025-06-17T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TacticzH What about $NBIS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1935574531839553708)  2025-06-19T05:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Couch_Investor Often times it's because of news that you didn't expect. Like with $CELH recently"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1936088374026162678)  2025-06-20T15:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"2 Discount Rate Used: Higher discount rates imply greater risk suggesting a larger MoS. But when high discount rates already account for risk a smaller or zero MoS may suffice. Low discount rates call for a substantial MoS to avoid misjudging valuations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1937859142406070588)  2025-06-25T13:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3 Company Predictability: Companies with inconsistent earnings or operations in unstable markets warrant a larger MoS to buffer uncertainty. A smaller MoS can be applied to predictable/stable companies given their lower risk profile"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1937859154192048341)  2025-06-25T13:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"5 Market Conditions: Turbulent market conditions call for a larger MOS while stable conditions may justify a smaller MOS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1937859178175099216)  2025-06-25T13:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"6 Portfolio Diversification: A diversified portfolio allows for a lower MoS given reduced risk. A concentrated portfolio demands a higher MoS to offset limited diversification"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1937859189872996745)  2025-06-25T13:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Buybacks from FCF are sustainable and less risky than those requiring increased leverage. While any buyback reduces equity and increases the debt-to-assets (D/A) ratio the funding source creates an important distinction: High leverage scenario: Borrowing to buy shares increases debt levels and interest expenses potentially pressuring valuations and offsetting buyback benefits. Debt capacity also creates firm limits. Low leverage scenario: Using FCF maintains stable debt levels and interest coverage ratios. As long as cash generation continues companies can keep repurchasing shares"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1938991535481348445)  2025-06-28T16:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"There are two fundamental sources of returns all investors should know: [--] Earnings growth: The expansion of company profitability over time (expressed as earnings or cash flows growth). [--] Dividends: Direct cash payments to shareholders (expressed as dividend yield). These two sources work together to reduce "dead money" risk where out-of-favor stocks stay undervalued for extended periods. Dividends provide real-time compensation while you wait and growing earnings compress valuations by increasing the denominator in the P/E ratio allowing investors to generate returns even during sideways"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1939669754073190703)  2025-06-30T12:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Companies with multiple revenue drivers fare better in sideways markets than those dependent on a single growth strategy. Here are several paths to organic revenue growth (i.e. growth from existing operations): [--] Volume expansion: Selling more products/services to existing and/or new customers represents the most straightforward growth path. This includes geographic expansion into new markets (domestic or international). Many companies find renewed growth opportunities by entering international markets after saturating their home territories. [--] Pricing power: Raising prices works when demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1940033433172062568)  2025-07-01T13:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Share repurchases can improve earnings per share (EPS) growth by reducing the share count but their effectiveness depends entirely on execution. When combined with dividends buybacks reduce the growth burden on companies. For example a company targeting 12% total return with a 3% dividend yield and 2% share buyback only needs 7% earnings growth rather than 12% without these capital returns. This lower growth requirement typically means less business risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1940756666687148203)  2025-07-03T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Ever wondered how much to invest once you've decided to buy a stock We addressed this question in yesterday's newsletter by covering position sizing rules based on company size margin of safety requirements and the confidence-diversification relationship"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1940801716112515476)  2025-07-03T15:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Quick tip-- you can download Excel and CSV files from Perplexity Finance for financial statements (going back [--] FY years) and stock price data: https://www.perplexity.ai/finance https://www.perplexity.ai/finance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1940878256263307678)  2025-07-03T21:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


""Whats wonderful about Graham and Dodd is that their advice is timeless. And it is not just about investing; its also about thinking about investing. It basically teaches you the questions that you should ask and it makes endless references to the foibles of human nature in the markets." Seth Klarman Harvard Business School (2008)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1941120564736983108)  2025-07-04T13:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The vertical assessment approach follows the structure of a company's income statement from top to bottom. This method evaluates each line item to understand what drives profitability at every level of the business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1942269402646470660)  2025-07-07T17:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Common-size statements express each line item as a percentage of sales enabling comparison across different-sized companies. This analysis highlights which income statement areas deserve focus and uncovers margin strength and consistency. If we perform a vertical analysis on Costco $COST for example we can see that Costco has thin profit margins typical of warehouse retailers who sacrifice profitability for volume. The company's cost structure however remains stable from year to year. If Costcos competitors such as Walmart $WMT and Target $TGT offer stronger and faster growing margins it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1942568608691024074)  2025-07-08T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TacticzH Was expecting more "hidden" stock names"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1943552271671005323)  2025-07-11T06:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Pursuing multiple strategies dilutes resources. Companies that lose focus through acquisitions often destroy value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1943702433252913380)  2025-07-11T16:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Peter Lynch called this "diworseification" and recommended avoiding such companies though he acknowledged rare exceptions like Berkshire Hathaway that succeed through exceptional management"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1943702445026361425)  2025-07-11T16:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Return on equity (ROE) results from a company's competitive position in its industry its operating strategies and the financial flexibility it possesses. By breaking ROE into three components investors can understand exactly where a company's returns come from:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1944743786938282113)  2025-07-14T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Here's the ROE decomposition formula: ROE = Net Profit Margin Asset Turnover Financial Leverage (Net Income / Sales) (Sales / Assets) (Assets / Equity) Each component tells a different story about the business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1944743799022104896)  2025-07-14T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"A ratio of [---] means the company produces $2 in sales for every $1 of assets employed. Asset-light businesses like software typically show high turnover ratios because they need minimal physical assets. Capital-intensive businesses like utilities show low ratios due to high infrastructure needs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1944743847118119262)  2025-07-14T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3 Financial leverage Measures how much the company amplifies returns through debt financing. Financial Leverage = Assets / Equity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1944743859004793269)  2025-07-14T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Companies can increase ROE through any of its three components but each path carries different risks and requirements:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1944743882903941396)  2025-07-14T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Improving margins requires competitive advantages or operational excellence. Increasing asset turnover demands efficient operations and working capital management. Adding leverage provides quick results but increases financial risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1944743894857683400)  2025-07-14T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@leevalueroach $RKT because 🚀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1944795445554721257)  2025-07-14T16:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"5/ In [----] Coke earned $1.42/share and had grown earnings 12% annually for a decade. Based on this growth holding Coke for [--] years would generate $24.88 in total earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945105635751944622)  2025-07-15T12:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"6/ But Coke traded at $88/share or [--] times earnings. An $88 investment in 6% corporate bonds would generate $5.28/year totaling $52.80 over [--] years. The bonds would produce more than double the income"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945105647718293634)  2025-07-15T12:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"11/ If you own a company with a durable competitive advantage and skilled management hold it until the market offers an extremely high price. Short-term price swings shouldn't concern you with great businesses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945105707461960192)  2025-07-15T12:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"12/ Consider how Warren and Bill Gates built wealth. Both held the same stock for 20+ years letting compound growth work. They understood that switching between investments often destroys returns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945105719667359876)  2025-07-15T12:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"15/ Different businesses show problems at different speeds. Manufacturing and retail changes appear quickly in quarterly sales. This visibility gives investors time to react before permanent damage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945105755864228239)  2025-07-15T12:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"16/ Financial institutions can hide problems through accounting choices until disasters suddenly appear. Warren says it's almost impossible to spot trouble at banks and insurance companies early"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945105767927054638)  2025-07-15T12:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"17/ His Freddie Mac sale illustrates this principle. When Buffett bought shares Freddie Mac securitized single-family mortgages a straightforward business with government-sponsored advantages"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945105779876618682)  2025-07-15T12:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"18/ Then management expanded into commercial mortgages seeking higher profits. Commercial real estate requires different skills and carries more complexity than residential loans"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945105792056938616)  2025-07-15T12:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@QCompounding @BrianFeroldi One that almost no one discusses is liquidation value. These are terminal value methods not DCF methods btw"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945184493641273389)  2025-07-15T18:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The halo effect is a cognitive bias where one positive trait makes you overrate everything else about something. For instance a popular product and/or charismatic CEO can blind investors to real problems causing them to overpay for stocks that seem stronger than they actually are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945512762379243885)  2025-07-16T15:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"🧵 Nick Sleep discovered something in [----] that most investors still miss. The best businesses give away more value than they capture. He called it the "robustness ratio.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945830913314824500)  2025-07-17T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"1/ Sleep ran Nomad Investment Partnership from 2001-2013 with 18.4% annual returns beating the S&P [---] Total Returns by 11.9%. His insight came from measuring how companies divide economic benefits between customers employees and shareholders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945830925335752711)  2025-07-17T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3/ The calculation works best for businesses where the customer proposition centers on price like warehouse retailers or direct insurers. It's less applicable for brand-driven companies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945830949159391297)  2025-07-17T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"4/ Sleep first noticed this reading Buffett's [----] Berkshire letter. GEICO's [----] economics showed $1B customer savings $1B shareholder profits pre-tax $191M employee profit-sharing. Employees received bonuses averaging 24.3% of annual salaries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945830961020805519)  2025-07-17T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"5/ When Sleep created a pie chart GEICO's benefits split roughly equally between customers and shareholders. Employees received a meaningful but smaller portion. A fair balance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945830978477555984)  2025-07-17T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"6/ Sleep then analyzed Costco $COST through the lens of the average cardholder in [----]. Annual spending per cardholder was $1100. Costco's cost to supply these goods was $980 giving them a gross margin of 11%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945830990972375291)  2025-07-17T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"7/ If you bought those same $980 worth of wholesale goods at Walmart $WMT you'd pay $1250. At Kroger $KR you'd pay $1300. Each retailer adds their own markup"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945831002938765714)  2025-07-17T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"8/ Costco marked up prices 11% while Walmart marked up 23% and Kroger 26%. This pricing difference created significant customer savings. After subtracting the $23 annual membership fee Sleep calculated each Costco cardholder saved $150 yearly compared to shopping elsewhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945831014846320678)  2025-07-17T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"14/ For Costco lower prices drive volume growth which increases buying power allowing even lower prices. Notably culture ensures benefits flow to customers not shareholders"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945831091321119011)  2025-07-17T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"15/ But high ratios create their own risks. From [----] to [----] Costco's stock traded sideways despite steady growth. This worried Sleep because depressed prices attract private equity firms"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945831103220392235)  2025-07-17T13:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"16/ Sleep observed Costco management had begun "gently tinkering" with the division of benefits to boost quarterly earnings and appease Wall Street. Minor adjustments establish dangerous patterns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945831115044147323)  2025-07-17T13:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"24/ Lastly while the robustness ratio can help identify great businesses valuation still matters. There are several cautionary examples from the late 1990s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945831210229584221)  2025-07-17T13:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"25/ Warren Buffett famously called Coca-Cola $KO and Gillette "the inevitables" due to their strong moats. Yet investors who bought at peak valuations suffered years of losses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1945831222049128533)  2025-07-17T13:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Charlie Munger discovered that scale creates advantages far beyond what most people realize. It's not just about buying power. The biggest companies win through geometry psychology and specialization. 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1946238034212692072)  2025-07-18T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1/ The experience curve is the simplest advantage of scale. When companies do something complicated over and over in increasing volumes they naturally get better at it. People find ways to work more efficiently"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1946238046145585201)  2025-07-18T15:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"12/ Coca-Cola $KO benefits greatly from being available almost everywhere. Once a product achieves this level of presence it becomes extremely difficult for competitors to dislodge it. Psychology reinforces market position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1946238176559018068)  2025-07-18T15:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"13/ Some businesses naturally cascade toward single firm dominance. Daily newspapers show this perfectly. Almost no U.S. city except the largest ones supports more than one daily paper anymore"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1946238188361851129)  2025-07-18T15:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"14/ Once one newspaper gets most circulation it attracts most advertising. More ad revenue means more content. Readers prefer the thicker paper with more information attracting even more circulation and ads"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1946238200596582705)  2025-07-18T15:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"15/ This creates a self-reinforcing cycle leading to winner-take-all outcomes. The advantages of being biggest compound until competition becomes nearly impossible"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1946238212411969924)  2025-07-18T15:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"21/ Without specialized buyers small operators get taken advantage of across every category"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1946238283455087039)  2025-07-18T15:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"22/ Scale advantages compound and reinforce each other. Experience curves physical efficiencies marketing power consumer psychology and specialization all work together. Understanding this explains why the biggest often keep getting bigger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1946238295287148863)  2025-07-18T15:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Here's how smart management teams think through capital allocation: Check balance sheet health first. If that's good evaluate reinvestment opportunities that meet your hurdle rate. Then consider M&A share buybacks and finally decide between dividends or holding cash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1947642899262566522)  2025-07-22T13:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IFB_podcast @Quartr_App DocuSign Not convinced haha"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1947868379815071813)  2025-07-23T03:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@k_ristovski Interesting. My observations for #2 is yes (for buys) given high enough relative size position title and cluster buys. Sells harder to determine imo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1947933949076115965)  2025-07-23T08:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Most investors can read financial statements. Few understand how they're actually connected. 👇 Net income flows from income statement to cash flow statement (starting point for operating cash) then to retained earnings on balance sheet (reduced by any dividends paid). Depreciation deducted on income statement added back in cash flow (non-cash expense) reduces asset values on balance sheet through accumulated depreciation. Working capital changes when current assets increase (like receivables or inventory) cash flow decreases; when current liabilities increase (like payables) cash flow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1948006407405760988)  2025-07-23T13:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"👉 Read more on how the financial statements are connected here: https://stablebread.com/financial-statements-linkage/ https://stablebread.com/financial-statements-linkage/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1948006420395536545)  2025-07-23T13:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@IFB_podcast Even $AAPL falls into this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1949251767390368098)  2025-07-26T23:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@F_Compounders They knew the importance of return on capital back then 👍🏽"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1949704823323897917)  2025-07-28T05:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@TacticzH Buy $ASML hold $GOOGL sell $UNH because they're crooked"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1950113885173789144)  2025-07-29T08:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The EQ Score was developed by Wolfe Research an independent sell-side research firm based in New York (founded [----] 30+ analysts covers 750+ companies). You can find it in their 10-K Navigation Guide (2020)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1950178770624938062)  2025-07-29T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The EQ Score assumes that balance sheet and cash flow statements show early signs of income statement problems. Management teams often use accounting tricks (cost capitalization aggressive revenue recognition depreciation changes) to mask deteriorating fundamentals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1950178782381559912)  2025-07-29T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"But there's more. Wolfe Research tracks additional red flags that aren't in the score but signal trouble. The more warning signs present the lower the earnings quality"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1950178863532954075)  2025-07-29T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Here's what data you need to calculate the EQ Score. All from standard financial statements - nothing special"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1950178889357283632)  2025-07-29T12:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"5 Is Earnings Growth Consistent or Erratic Quality companies deliver steady growth. Wild swings signal either: Highly volatile industry Regular losses to competitors Volatile industries can work if outlook is positive and shares are cheap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1950904099815526520)  2025-07-31T12:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"6 How Clean Is the Balance Sheet Red flags for non-banks: Financial leverage ratio [--] Debt-to-equity ratio [---] Financial Leverage = Total Assets / Shareholders' Equity Debt-to-Equity = Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1950904111660159182)  2025-07-31T12:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@LeStonkJames @GabGrowth I love $FIG and i pirate $ADBE 🤐🤫"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1951180078622064691)  2025-08-01T07:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MebFaber @jpmorgan Very interesting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1951320745448988894)  2025-08-01T16:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Nejat Seyhun a finance professor at the University of Michigan studied insider trading patterns from 1975-1995 in his book "Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading." His findings showed that stocks insiders bought but didn't sell outperformed the market by 7.5% on average over the following [--] months. Companies with heavy insider selling underperformed by 6.1%. However not all insider transactions carry equal weight. The size relative to the executive's net worth matters far more than the dollar amount. A CEO purchasing $10M of stock means far more if their net worth is $100M (10%)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1952717044266549306)  2025-08-05T13:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The proxy statement's "Compensation Discussion and Analysis" shows whether executives are rewarded for building long-term value or enriching themselves. Here's how to spot the difference between shareholder-friendly compensation and executive greed: 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1953078376090222856)  2025-08-06T12:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"✅ Positive compensation structures share key traits. First ties to operating metrics rather than stock price. Companies should link executive pay to measurable business results like operating income revenue growth or profit margins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1953078388014629062)  2025-08-06T12:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@chitchatstocks When widespread effects on tariffs will be seen in earnings reports"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1953219482584760553)  2025-08-06T22:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Yesterday we published a post summarizing @dede_eyesan's book "Global Outperformers" specifically focusing on his [--] lessons near the end of the book. Highly recommend the book to anyone serious about succeeding as a value investor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1953486803912327406)  2025-08-07T16:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MMMTwealth @topdowncharts What's a good entry for $GRAB in your opinion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1953841607800750427)  2025-08-08T15:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Peter Lynch believed that every stock belongs to one of six categories. Knowing which category a stock fits into can guide your investment strategy: 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1954211100813295884)  2025-08-09T16:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This leaves only one practical option: value the equity directly by projecting cash flows available to shareholders and discounting them at the cost of equity (i.e. with the capital asset pricing model (CAPM))"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1954889578416046451)  2025-08-11T12:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The same logic applies to comparable company analysis using valuation multiples. Price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios work for financial firms because they focus on equity. Enterprise value multiples like EV/EBITDA fail because we can't properly calculate enterprise value without knowing what counts as debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1954889590403391968)  2025-08-11T12:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Option 1: Use dividends as a proxy for cash flows. This assumes companies pay out their available cash to shareholders over time. Because dividends are observable we avoid the reinvestment estimation problems entirely. This works best for mature banks and insurers with consistent dividend policies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1954889626583433645)  2025-08-11T12:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Option 2: Adapt the FCFE measure to redefine reinvestment based on regulatory capital ratio constraints. Banks must add equity capital to support asset growth. This retained amount represents reinvestment for growth replacing the CapEx figures we can't measure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1954889638537236616)  2025-08-11T12:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ReneSellmann Man loves insurance so not surprised. Also ive been reading many investors pessimistic on $AAPL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1956103306570342486)  2025-08-14T21:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CCM_Brett Hes buying health insurance for himself thats all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1956122061065347228)  2025-08-14T22:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Clayton Christensen's [----] Harvard Business Review article "The Big Idea: The New M&A Playbook" reports that mergers and acquisitions fail 70% to 90% of the time. While "failure" is subjective in this context the broader point stands: acquisitions frequently destroy shareholder value rather than create it. Christensen categorizes acquisitions by the four business model elements they provide: 1) Customer value proposition 2) Profit formula (revenue model and cost structure) 3) Resources (people customers technology products facilities cash) 4) Processes (manufacturing R&D sales) Companies use"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1958151535214604683)  2025-08-20T12:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@F_Compounders I just pick whatever i want for the stock to return annualized. Based on understanding of biz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1958357877665464463)  2025-08-21T02:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Bill Miller's Value Trust fund outperformed the S&P [---] for [--] consecutive years through [----] achieving a 4.7% CAGR outperformance versus the SP500TR Index. Critics dismissed this as luck. But here's what Michael Mauboussin had to say on the matter: 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1958514174499447046)  2025-08-21T12:59Z [---] followers, 44.2K engagements


"Here's something to watch out for when looking at reported EPS numbers. When a company buys back its shares it reduces the shares outstanding. EPS = net income / shares outstanding Fewer shares means higher EPS even if net income stays flat. If a company earns $1B with 100M shares the EPS is $10. After buying back 10M shares leaving 90M the same $1B produces an EPS of $11.11. This means companies can show EPS growth without increasing actual profits. Many large companies use this strategy regularly which is completely legal and openly reported in financial statements"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1959964483482448292)  2025-08-25T13:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Every investment requires understanding the business model and key drivers but artificial constraints eliminate opportunities before proper analysis begins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1960325905643081863)  2025-08-26T12:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"But for every $TSLA and $BYD hundreds of companies had equally compelling thematic narratives but failed to generate returns. "Finding the right theme is only 10% of the investment journey" Eyesan warns. What matters is identifying the handful of undervalued winners with genuine potential"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1960325965323870515)  2025-08-26T12:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Lesson 9: Creativity and Imagination As Eyesan shares "The future edge to outperformance is the ability to turn minimal information into insights wisdom and great investment ideas.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1960326119581958153)  2025-08-26T12:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"In solar energy polysilicon growth drove demand for microinverters which connected to home energy storage electric vehicles and lithium demand. While others see one investment case creative investors identify five through ripple effects"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1960326131749679246)  2025-08-26T12:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Taylor protects against this risk by calculating exactly how much you can safely borrow based on market volatility and your specific holdings. Not avoiding margin entirely. Not using it recklessly. But finding the mathematical "sweet spot." He follows [--] rules for margin management"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1960734833312981140)  2025-08-27T16:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Rule 1: Negotiate Your Rate Interactive Brokers M1 Finance and Robinhood offer the lowest margin rates. If you don't switch use their rates as leverage when negotiating with your current broker. The difference between paying 8% and 6% compounds significantly over time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1960734845090586660)  2025-08-27T16:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Rule 2: Know Your Marginable Stocks Not all stocks qualify for margin. Companies under $2B market cap typically require 100% cash upfront. Buy marginable stocks in margin accounts save non-marginable positions for retirement accounts where margin doesn't matter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1960734857082102130)  2025-08-27T16:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

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