# ![@StableBread Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1296289507336167424.png) @StableBread StableBread

StableBread posts on X about ai, business, $bkng, $race the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1296289507336167424/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1296289507336167424/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +111%
- [--] Month [-----] -3%
- [--] Months [-------] +957%
- [--] Year [-------] +745%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1296289507336167424/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1296289507336167424/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +222%
- [--] Month [--] -35%
- [--] Months [---] +180%
- [--] Year [---] +1,405%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1296289507336167424/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1296289507336167424/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +0.30%
- [--] Month [-----] +0.39%
- [--] Months [-----] +43%
- [--] Year [-----] +61%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1296289507336167424/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1296289507336167424/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  48% [finance](/list/finance)  42% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  13% [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands)  12% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  11% [countries](/list/countries)  5% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  2%

**Social topic influence**
[ai](/topic/ai) 17%, [business](/topic/business) 14%, [$bkng](/topic/$bkng) #80, [$race](/topic/$race) 12%, [strong](/topic/strong) 8%, [stocks](/topic/stocks) 8%, [flow](/topic/flow) 7%, [model](/topic/model) 7%, [company](/topic/company) 5%, [money](/topic/money) 5%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@speedwellllc](/creator/undefined) [@valueinvestshow](/creator/undefined) [@thestocksking](/creator/undefined) [@bramvgenechten](/creator/undefined) [@sashinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@midascabal](/creator/undefined) [@qualtrim](/creator/undefined) [@fcompounders](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)](/topic/$bkng) [Ferrari N.V. (RACE)](/topic/$race) [Now Coin (NOW)](/topic/$now) [Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON)](/topic/$axon) [Zscaler Inc (ZS)](/topic/$zs) [ServiceNow Inc (NOW)](/topic/servicenow) [SPDR GOLD ETF (GLD)](/topic/$gld) [Docusign Inc (DOCU)](/topic/$docu) [HUBSPOT, INC. (HUBS)](/topic/$hubs) [Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD)](/topic/$ttd) [Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation Class A Subordinate Voting Shares (BIPC)](/topic/$bipc) [New Jersey Resources Corp (NJR)](/topic/$njr) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)](/topic/$enph) [Salesforce Inc (CRM)](/topic/$crm) [Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)](/topic/$adbe) [Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)](/topic/$snow) [Duolingo, Inc.  (DUOL)](/topic/$duol) [Newmont Corporation (NEM)](/topic/$nem) [AngloGold Ashanti Limited (AU)](/topic/$au) [Asana, Inc. (ASAN)](/topic/$asan) [Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)](/topic/crowdstrike)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Once a mine reaches production the risk changes. It's no longer about finding ore. It's about how management allocates the cash. A $COPX copper price near $6/lb supports strong cash flow. The real risk becomes whether management returns value to shareholders or spends on promotion and lifestyle. Capital allocation discipline inside companies separates value creators from value destroyers. Look for management teams focused on returning cash rather than empire building. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018805703427981680 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018805703427981680"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2018805703427981680)  2026-02-03T21:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"1 How bad is a hallucination This one is counterintuitive. The more dangerous a failure is the safer the company. If your AI marketing copy generator gets it 90% right that's probably fine. Which means it's also replaceable. But if your cybersecurity software misses a threat If your medical diagnostic tool hallucinates If your power grid management system has a 2% error rate Those failures are catastrophic. That's exactly why companies like $CRWD are harder to displace. The cost of getting it wrong is too high to trust an unproven alternative. Constellation Software $CSU.TO operates the same"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021585534959911412)  2026-02-11T14:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"2 Do they charge per seat or per usage Seat-based pricing is the most exposed business model in AI. If an AI agent replaces three analysts on your team that's three fewer $CRM licenses. Seat count drops revenue drops. Salesforce knows this which is why the push into AgentForce matters so much. Same situation may be the case for $ADBE. $SNOW is better positioned here. Snowflake has always charged based on compute usage. When AI agents run more queries and process more data Snowflake gets paid more not less. The question for any SaaS company right now is whether AI adoption grows their revenue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021585546892702013)  2026-02-11T14:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@ValueInvestShow I think this + prop data + AI enabling mass learning potential is the real moat. But I'm not investing cuz risks to core biz for $DUOL is real imo and too much execution risk against time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021718015860162834)  2026-02-11T22:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$ZS Same tension as ServiceNow. Cybersecurity means high liability. Errors are catastrophic. Zscaler also processes massive volumes of proprietary telemetry creating a significant moat and switching cost. The company runs a global network of data centers and connectors which adds some physical infrastructure beyond pure software. But like $NOW the monetization model is tied to users and seats. If headcount drops revenue follows. The core question is whether Zscaler can adapt its pricing before that becomes a real problem. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021961581106741476"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021961581106741476)  2026-02-12T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Everyone knows $BKNG as the company behind and Priceline. The world's largest online travel agency (OTA). But something shifted. A couple years ago merchant revenue was 50% of the business. Today it's 68%. Booking now controls the entire payment flow on more than two-thirds of transactions. Travel company on the surface. Payments infrastructure underneath. Here's what the market is missing (and when to buy): 🧵 http://Booking.com http://Booking.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190764485087667)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Booking Holdings owns Priceline Agoda KAYAK and OpenTable. Combined they're the largest online travel agency outside mainland China. $BKNG Q3 2025: 323M room nights booked $49.7B in gross bookings $9B in revenue The business has two revenue streams: 1) Agency model: Guest pays hotel hotel pays Booking a commission. 2) Merchant model: Guest pays Booking Booking pays hotel. The merchant model is now 68% of gross bookings up from 61% last year. This shift is the key to understanding why the business is changing. http://Booking.com http://Booking.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190779622387915)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$GLD gold $COPX copper $SLV silver and $URA uranium each respond to different market drivers. Concentrating everything in one metal amplifies both gains and losses. Copper supply fundamentals are strong and attractive. Gold remains attractive but volatile. The same discipline that applies to individual company selection applies to metal selection. Beware getting carried away when any single metal runs. Markets can shift quickly. Diversifying across metals spreads risk without sacrificing exposure to the broader commodity cycle. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019486244695413043"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2019486244695413043)  2026-02-05T19:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The strongest junior miners avoid burning through their treasury altogether. Partner-funded exploration preserves cash and sustains news flow even if markets cool. When a partner funds the drilling the junior can continue advancing projects without diluting shareholders. This becomes particularly valuable when talent shortages emerge and efficient use of drilling dollars matters most"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2019862960563503161)  2026-02-06T19:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Even stronger is when a major takes a position. Strategic or producer investors like Newmont $NEM or AngloGold Ashanti $AU bring deep technical due diligence that ordinary financings cannot match. Their participation validates the technical merit of a project in ways that a press release never can. Bet on people with track records and on projects where drilling money is efficiently spent. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019862972370415942 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019862972370415942"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2019862972370415942)  2026-02-06T19:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Some of the biggest SaaS names have gotten crushed this year. Figma $FGMA for instance is down 80% over the last year. The market is pricing in three things: 1) AI agents could replace the software itself. 2) Customers could vibe-code their own tools. 3) Years of bloated hiring and stock-based comp leave many of these companies exposed. But not every software company is equally at risk. Here's four ways to think about separating fragile SaaS stocks from the durable (with examples): 🧵 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021585522888728882 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021585522888728882"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021585522888728882)  2026-02-11T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"3 Does it touch the physical world Pure software is easier to replace. Software wired into hardware and real-world workflows is a different story. DocuSign $DOCU handles contracts entirely in software. In theory an AI agent could replicate that (legal and jurisdictional protections aside). $AXON is the opposite. Body cameras tasers evidence management platforms. The software is deeply integrated with physical hardware deployed across thousands of police departments (plus you can't vibe-code a body camera). Vertical integration with hardware can reduce margins but in the age of AI it becomes a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021585558896849099)  2026-02-11T14:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"4 Does the product get stronger with more customers Does proprietary context accumulate in a way that makes switching painful and the product harder to replicate Asana $ASAN stores your project data but that data could be migrated to a competitor or a custom-built tool without losing much. $CRWD shows up again here. Every new customer feeds telemetry into CrowdStrike's threat detection. The more endpoints it monitors the better its signals get. New customers benefit from intelligence that only CrowdStrike holds. That's a switching cost no LLM can overcome. Systems of record with private"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021585571148431751)  2026-02-11T14:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Markets are forward-looking. If investors perceive that AI will impair growth (even slightly) multiples can collapse. The difference between 25% expected growth and 15% expected growth can cut a valuation in half. And what an LLM can do [--] months from now might be materially different from today. Forward expectations are shifting fast. Regardless you should focus on (1) where hallucinations are catastrophic (2) where the business monetizes productivity instead of headcount (3) where the product is wired into the physical world and (4) where proprietary data compounds with every new customer."  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021585583186047170)  2026-02-11T14:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"A junior miner can sit on a world-class deposit and still go to zero if the jurisdiction turns against them. Where the mine is located determines permitting timelines title certainty infrastructure costs and exposure to policy shifts. Get this wrong and nothing else matters. Some regions are favorable right now. The US (Nevada Dakotas Idaho) Canada Chile Australia and increasingly Brazil. What they share is rule of law clear title and predictable royalty regimes. Mexico shows the other side. Despite being a major $SLV silver producer title and permitting issues regularly complicate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021660013983670419)  2026-02-11T18:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$SLV experienced two of its worst single-day drops on record roughly [--] days apart. This is what happens when derivatives leverage and concentrated positioning collide in a smaller market. Commodities can move in ways that equities rarely do because the markets are thinner and positioning gets crowded. Not a reason to avoid the space. But a reminder that position sizing in commodities isn't optional. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021705563831472255 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021705563831472255"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021705563831472255)  2026-02-11T21:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Software stocks have been getting hammered. The market is repricing the entire SaaS sector as AI agents threaten to commoditize what used to be high-margin high-growth businesses. But not every software company is equally at risk. Let's quickly evaluate $AXON $HUBS $TTD $NOW $ZS and $CSU.TO to see how they stack up: 🧵 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021961498927804894 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021961498927804894"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021961498927804894)  2026-02-12T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$AXON Hardware + liability create layered protection. The cost of failure is high. Lost body camera evidence or a public-safety breakdown has real consequences. Physical-world integration is strong. Tasers body cameras and evidence platforms anchor the business in hardware that can't be replicated in code. The weak spot is the business model which is still largely seat-based. But the combination of high liability and deep hardware integration gives Axon multiple layers of defense worth paying attention to. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021961516250279943"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021961516250279943)  2026-02-12T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$HUBS Sticky but structurally exposed. HubSpot has strong retention but retention alone doesn't tell the full story. Marketing copy errors aren't catastrophic. The business model is seat-based. The product is mostly digital with limited physical-world integration. Network effects help but don't make it strongly defensible. A company can keep its customers and still be vulnerable if the market prices in slower growth from AI competition. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021961532771643487 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021961532771643487"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021961532771643487)  2026-02-12T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$TTD Usage-based model does the heavy lifting. Getting programmatic ad buying wrong means wasted spend not catastrophic failure. So liability isn't a strong moat here. But Trade Desk charges based on usage not seats. That's meaningful protection. The platform also has publisher relationships and inventory integrations that add some durability beyond pure software. Mixed overall but the monetization model is doing the right thing for an AI world. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021961548877770935 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021961548877770935"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021961548877770935)  2026-02-12T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$NOW Strong proprietary data real pricing risk. ServiceNow handles IT operations security workflows and compliance areas where errors are costly. Liability is high. The switching cost is also high. Private company-specific context builds up inside ServiceNow over time making it hard for any public LLM to replicate what it does for existing customers. The problem is the business model. It's largely seat-based and subscription-based. If AI agents reduce the number of humans using the platform revenue is directly threatened. High moat for current customers legitimate concern on growth."  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021961564983828774)  2026-02-12T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$CSU.TO Possibly the most protected name on this list. Constellation Software owns dozens of vertical software businesses in regulated niches. Water utilities public transport cemeteries. Places where 90% accuracy is unacceptable. Revenue is built on high-maintenance recurring contracts and site licenses making it less sensitive to headcount cuts. Many portfolio companies bundle software with hardware and workflows and they sit on highly specific datasets that public AI simply can't access. Extreme diversification across mission-critical niches makes Constellation far less threatened by AI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021961596738973726)  2026-02-12T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The pattern across all of these is the same. Liability and proprietary data protect existing business. Physical-world integration raises the barrier to replacement. But if the pricing model is tied to human headcount growth is at risk regardless of how strong the moat is. The companies with strong protection and usage-based or headcount-independent monetization are the ones best positioned. Watch for who adapts their pricing model first"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2021961609519018124)  2026-02-12T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The biggest risk in junior mining isn't bad geology. It's FOMO. When commodities heat up new money floods into junior miners. And FOMO leads to bad decisions. Wrong jurisdictions faulty geology unproven management teams. Investors rush in because they think they're already late. That haste gets expensive. A few patterns show up every cycle. "We're the next Snowline" substitutes for actual analysis. Elevated spot prices get treated as permanent inflating valuations that collapse when prices normalize. Pre-discovery companies trading above $100M should raise red flags. Right now there's a lot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021993211536068724)  2026-02-12T17:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Speedwell_LLC Maybe $DOCU $SSTK $BZFD. I certainly wouldnt put money into them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2022011341670953055)  2026-02-12T18:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The biggest question in markets right now isn't whether AI works. It's whether the money being spent on it is actually producing returns. Satya Nadella put it simply. For AI not to be a bubble the benefits have to spread broadly across the economy not stay concentrated in a handful of infrastructure companies. So how do you actually measure that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2022324138430599666)  2026-02-13T14:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Surveys aren't reliable here. They're noisy self-selected and consistently overstate actual adoption. A better signal is what companies are saying in earnings calls and 10-Ks. Across thousands of public filings AI disclosures tend to fall into three buckets: Tier [--] The company mentions AI at all. This is mostly noise. Tier [--] The company ties AI to a specific economic gain. Revenue cost savings productivity margin improvement. This is more meaningful. Tier [--] The company reports actual ROI. Numeric gains measured against what they spent to achieve them. Something like "20% reduction in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2022324162476569055)  2026-02-13T14:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Most companies are still at Tier [--]. They mention AI on the call but can't point to measurable impact. The gap between Tier [--] and Tier [--] is where the bubble question gets answered. If Tier [--] disclosures accelerate across industries over the next few quarters AI spending is sustainable. If they don't a lot of infrastructure investment is getting ahead of actual demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2022324174438707546)  2026-02-13T14:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Lots of companies talk about AI on earnings calls. Fewer can point to real numbers. Here's what to watch to separate noise from signal: [--] Are more companies reporting quantifiable AI gains Not vague mentions. Actual numbers tied to revenue cost savings or productivity. The share reporting measurable gains went from 10% to 32% in recent years. That trend needs to continue. [--] Are those gains showing up in EPS and margins Pilot-level improvements are rounding errors. The gains have to become visible in financials for AI spending to be sustainable. [--] Are companies migrating from laggard to early"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2022386045241954811)  2026-02-13T19:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"3 ROE below required return means P/B should be less than [---]. Value destruction means shareholders own something worth less than its accounting equity. This is why some stocks trade at permanent discounts to book"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2005654636850786799)  2025-12-29T14:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"These relationships create mispricing signals. A stock at P/B below [---] that you expect to earn above the required return Potential buy. A stock at P/B above [---] that you expect to underperform Potential sell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2005654648620003516)  2025-12-29T14:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"This changes how you think about valuation entirely. You're not trying to outsmart the market with better forecasts. You're asking: "Does the growth embedded in this price make sense given what I know about this business""  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2005654672397451536)  2025-12-29T14:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Penman puts it this way: "Don't think of valuation with a valuation model. Rather think about the person asking you to trade. How is that person thinking about value and does that agree with your thinking" You're negotiating with Mr. Market not calculating truth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2005654684837752963)  2025-12-29T14:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The primary risk of investing is paying too much. This approach quantifies exactly how much you're paying for growth so you can decide which side of the trade you want to be on. See our $RACE example here: https://newsletter.stablebread.com/p/price-of-growth https://newsletter.stablebread.com/p/price-of-growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2005654696707620972)  2025-12-29T14:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Portfolio arithmetic works in your favor over long horizons. Good ideas that compound become larger positions. Poor ideas can dwindle automatically if you don't keep adding to them. The businesses you like understand and are willing to follow determine what you own"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2005730803138060474)  2025-12-29T20:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Ferrari $RACE the Italian luxury automaker has fallen 27% from its YTD highs after management guidance disappointed investors in October. Rather than debating whether the selloff is justified let's use Stephen Penman's residual earnings approach to isolate how much of the current $376 stock price is tied to growth expectations. This way you'll see exactly what growth the market expects and can judge if it's realistic: 🧵 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006017954824204755 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006017954824204755"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2006017954824204755)  2025-12-30T15:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Stephen Penman's residual earnings approach lets you separate what you can account for from what remains speculative. This helps you see exactly what you're paying for when you buy a stock at a given price. Residual earnings measures value creation beyond what shareholders require: RE = EPS (Required Return BPS) Ferrari $RACE earns $9.00/share. Assuming shareholders require the market average (10%) on $20.37 of book value residual earnings equal $6.96. That's the value created above the minimum expectation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2006017970431213979)  2025-12-30T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"To value Ferrari $RACE calculate the "no-growth value" which assumes residual earnings stay flat forever after your forecast horizon. This captures only what the accounting can support with zero speculation about future growth. For $RACE the no-growth value comes to $93.84/share. The stock trades at $376.08. The difference $282.24 is what the market is paying purely for future growth. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006017985534914795 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006017985534914795"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2006017985534914795)  2025-12-30T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Put differently Ferrari $RACE's market price breaks into three components: Book value: $20.37 Value from near-term earnings: $73.46 Value from long-term growth: $282.24 About 75% of $RACE's price comes from growth speculation. Only a quarter is supported by book value and near-term earnings. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006018001217499213 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006018001217499213"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2006018001217499213)  2025-12-30T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"You can reverse engineer the exact residual earnings growth rate implied in Ferrari $RACE's market price (using Excel's Goal Seek). At $376.08 the market is pricing in 8.1% perpetual growth in residual earnings. When $RACE traded at its YTD high of $517.65 in July the implied rate was 8.6%. Therefore the recent 27% selloff only reduced growth expectations from 8.6% to 8.1%. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006018017118019731 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006018017118019731"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2006018017118019731)  2025-12-30T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Is 8.1% perpetual growth in residual earnings realistic Look at Ferrari $RACE's actual trajectory: 20232024: 29.4% 20242025E: 3.5% 20252026E: 6.1% Growth has already decelerated sharply from 29% to the 3-6% range. Yet the market still prices in 8.1% forever. This means investors in Ferrari $RACE expect the company to either reaccelerate growth above current forecasts or sustain elevated growth for an unusually long period before fading toward the 4% GDP benchmark. Both assumptions are aggressive given the deceleration already underway. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006018033010245749"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2006018033010245749)  2025-12-30T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Here's how Ferrari $RACE's implied residual earnings growth changes at different stock prices: $500: 8.6% growth 81% of price is speculation $400: 8.2% growth 77% speculation $300: 7.5% growth 69% speculation Even at $300/share you're betting on growth well above near-term forecasts and the long-run GDP rate. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006018047900078255 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006018047900078255"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2006018047900078255)  2025-12-30T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Ferrari $RACE's ROE of 46.1% means it creates substantial residual earnings even with modest growth. But at a P/B of 18.5x much of the stock's value depends on those excess returns persisting far into the future. If the competitive advantage period is shorter than expected the stock is overpriced. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006018060252242120 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006018060252242120"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2006018060252242120)  2025-12-30T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"You don't need to know exactly what Ferrari $RACE is worth. You need a view on whether 8.1% sustained residual earnings growth is realistic given the deceleration already underway. According to Penman the primary risk of investing is paying too much. This approach quantifies exactly how much you're paying for growth so you can decide which side of the trade you want to be on. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006018072185074010 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006018072185074010"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2006018072185074010)  2025-12-30T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"👉 For the complete model explanation and $RACE example see our full guide here: https://newsletter.stablebread.com/p/price-of-growth https://newsletter.stablebread.com/p/price-of-growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2006018084025639352)  2025-12-30T15:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@TheStocksKing Here's my valuation analysis. Probably still too expensive: https://x.com/i/status/2006017954824204755 Ferrari $RACE the Italian luxury automaker has fallen 27% from its YTD highs after management guidance disappointed investors in October. Rather than debating whether the selloff is justified let's use Stephen Penman's residual earnings approach to isolate how much of the https://t.co/6LSPrW5x9r https://x.com/i/status/2006017954824204755 Ferrari $RACE the Italian luxury automaker has fallen 27% from its YTD highs after management guidance disappointed investors in October."  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2006454633590583782)  2025-12-31T19:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Why does merchant mix matter so much When $BKNG processes payments as merchant-of-record it collects money upfront from travelers holds it and settles with hotels later. A customer booking a hotel two months in advance means Booking holds that cash for weeks before paying the supplier. That's payment float. Working capital advantage. And importantly the payment layer is now margin-accretive. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008190795455901779 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008190795455901779"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190795455901779)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The merchant model also enables $BKNG's two biggest strategic bets. First is Genius Booking's loyalty program. Members get discounts free breakfast room upgrades. Genius Level [--] and [--] members are over 30% of the customer base but drive mid-50% of room nights. They cancel less convert higher book further in advance. Second is Connected Trip the push to bundle hotel + flight + car + attractions into one transaction. These multi-vertical bookings grew mid-20% y/y and now represent low double-digits % of transactions. Both strategies work better when Booking controls the payment. And both"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190810320499085)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Speaking of CLV the most important trend in $BKNG is the acceleration of direct bookings. B2C direct mix: mid-60% range up from low-60% last year. Mobile app mix: mid-50% range up from low-50% last year. CFO Steenbergen: "The growth of our direct channel in the U.S. we saw an inflection point. that is really a very very healthy indicator for the future." Direct customers have no paid acquisition cost which is why this trend matters most. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008190825449292199 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008190825449292199"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190825449292199)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$BKNG Connected Trip Q3 progress: Connected transactions grew mid-20% y/y Now represent low double-digit % of transactions Flight tickets +32% y/y Attractions nearly +90% y/y from a smaller base Travelers who book multiple verticals return more frequently. And when you book flights hotels cars and dining through one platform Booking knows when you're arriving how long you're staying your budget and dining preferences. More data. Better personalization. Higher lifetime value. http://Booking.com http://Booking.com http://Booking.com http://Booking.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190840523604147)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"On market share: $BKNG booked 323M room nights in Q3 alone making it significantly larger than both Airbnb and Expedia in volume. Yet Booking has matched or exceeded Airbnb's room night growth in half the quarters over the past [---] years. And outgrown Expedia in [--] out of [--] quarters. Similar growth rates from a much larger base means Booking is gaining share in actual nights booked. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008190856638128198 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008190856638128198"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190856638128198)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"AI is also already improving $BKNG margins on the cost side. Customer service costs in Q3 were down y/y in absolute terms despite 10% volume growth. Lower contact rates faster resolution times higher customer satisfaction. Average cost per booking coming down rapidly. Beyond AI Booking launched a company-wide cost efficiency program in late [----]. Original target was $400-450M in annual run-rate savings. Current target is $500-550M. [----] in-year savings already over $225M. And they're reinvesting $170M of those savings into strategic priorities like Asia expansion the attractions vertical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190901118755197)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Asia deserves mention because it's the long-term growth engine for $BKNG. Booking is the largest travel platform outside mainland China. The Asia travel market is expected to grow high single-digits for years the fastest of any major region. Booking is outpacing that. Q3 2025: Asia delivered low double-digit room night growth. The dual-brand approach: Agoda as the localized player for global reach http://Booking.com http://Booking.com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190916033720681)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"So what does all this add up to financially $BKNG TTM: Revenue: $26B Gross Margin: 87% Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 37% Net Margin: 19% FCF Margin: 32% Free cash flow funds buybacks while maintaining $17B cash on the balance sheet. Capital returns: Dividends $38/share annually Buybacks $700M in Q3 alone Share count down 4% y/y https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008190931200319942 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008190931200319942"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190931200319942)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$BKNG FY [----] guidance: Room nights: +7% Gross bookings: +11-12% Revenue: +12% Adjusted EBITDA: +17-18% Adjusted EPS: over +20% EBITDA margin expansion: [---] bps y/y On a constant currency basis exceeding their long-term algorithm of 8% top-line and 15% EPS growth. Management raised Transformation Program savings targets and full-year EBITDA guidance on the same call. You don't do that if you're seeing real demand deterioration. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008190946522067190 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008190946522067190"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190946522067190)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Let's talk valuation. $BKNG currently trades at: $5355 stock price $173B market cap 35x P/E TTM 20x P/E NTM 21x P/FCF 17x EV/EBITDA Using a DCF with consensus analyst estimates implied return is 9% Fair at 9% required return. Expensive at 10-12% required return. Cheap at lower required return. The market is pricing $BKNG as a cyclical travel company rather than payments infrastructure with travel exposure. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008190958803017892 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008190958803017892"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190958803017892)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"The risks to $BKNG are real. Recession would hurt demand and U.S. consumers are already showing some caution with shorter stays and lower ADRs. The 68% merchant mix means credit card fee increases hit margins directly. Competition is intense with expanding in Europe Airbnb pushing into hotels and AI creating new entry points. Plus 50% of room nights come from Europe a mature market. Glenn Fogel CEO for [--] years: "This business has always been one of the most competitive of any industry that I've ever experienced. There are no silver bullets in this business. It's just continue to execute day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190975420809367)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$BKNG is a market leader with scale advantages generating 30%+ FCF margins returning billions to shareholders and positioned as the transaction infrastructure layer that AI agents will need to rely on. The stock isn't cheap but it's fairly valued if you're pricing a cyclical travel company. If the market starts pricing this as payments infrastructure the multiple has room to expand. Best entry would be during a recession or broad market selloff when travel demand gets questioned. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008190987953471699 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2008190987953471699"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190987953471699)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Many investors compare Indian valuations to U.S. valuations and consider them "cheap." However this is not always appropriate. Public float in India is low and insider ownership is among the highest globally. This results in limited supply of quality equities and a scarcity premium on quality with growth. Of roughly [----] listed companies about [----] are illiquid microcaps. Of the remaining [----] perhaps [---] to [---] have strong corporate governance and quality characteristics. Domestic mutual fund inflows concentrate on these names keeping valuations elevated and making them rarely cheap except"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008251916279775648)  2026-01-05T18:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@BramVGenechten Thanks Good point esp for quality biz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008495897420984328)  2026-01-06T11:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@SashInvesting Company looks solid from my quick analysis: https://x.com/i/status/2008190764485087667 Everyone knows $BKNG as the company behind https://t.co/pntuvqR4Bx and Priceline. The world's largest online travel agency (OTA). But something shifted. A couple years ago merchant revenue was 50% of the business. Today it's 68%. Booking now controls the entire payment flow https://t.co/7n2imqUfWk https://x.com/i/status/2008190764485087667 Everyone knows $BKNG as the company behind https://t.co/pntuvqR4Bx and Priceline. The world's largest online travel agency (OTA). But something shifted. A"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008732092050665818)  2026-01-07T02:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"You can read where the market stands in its cycle by watching what kind of companies are going public and at what price. Stage 1: Good companies list at cheap valuations. Sentiment is subdued and investors remain cautious. Stage 2: Good companies list at expensive valuations. Confidence has returned and investors are willing to pay premium prices for quality. Stage 3: Bad companies list at ludicrous valuations and are heavily oversubscribed by retail investors. A surge in retail participation and very high levels of margin funding are late-cycle indicators. This is characteristic of a final"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008901194400595999)  2026-01-07T13:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"As a bull market matures investors tend to shift portfolios down the quality ladder. The migration follows a predictable pattern: It begins with high-quality high-ROE stocks. Then moves to lower-quality higher-growth names with inferior returns and management. Then commodities deep cyclicals loss-making turnarounds illiquid microcaps and finally companies promising rapid revenue growth funded by large debt. The bull market often tops at the point portfolios are dominated by junk. In the ensuing bear market both quality and junk fall. Quality eventually recovers while junk can remain depressed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008991032365445404)  2026-01-07T19:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"When valuations rise across the portfolio maintaining diversification lets you participate in various tailwinds and resist fear of missing out on whatever is currently popular. High-quality stocks often underperform in speculative bull markets while other factors outperform. Diversification helps you stay patient during these periods. Quality stocks may look optically expensive right after a bull run but tend to pause while fundamentals catch up. Meanwhile other holdings can generate returns. As long as terminal value and competitive advantages remain intact be ultra-patient with high-quality"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2009641067302596682)  2026-01-09T14:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Speedwell_LLC The first noble truth of Buddhism is that investing is suffering 🧘🏽♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2010202457985736909)  2026-01-11T04:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Home country bias causes investors to over-allocate domestically and miss foreign growth opportunities while taking concentration risk. The U.S. is 4% of world population and roughly 26% of global GDP but about 71% of global market cap. That concentration is historically anomalous. By end of November [----] about 73% of U.S. market-cap addition over a trailing three-year period came from AI-related stocks creating a single-factor concentration. Global diversification can provide protection and exposures outside of concentrated domestic bets. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010727736130810172"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2010727736130810172)  2026-01-12T14:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@midascabal The 10% tariff increase we just put on multiple EU countries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2012765899598778464)  2026-01-18T05:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@qualtrim Quiet compounder is the understatement of the decade every single SaaS model business has been ramping their prices up over the last few years spotify $SPOT is about to do it again going to $12.99 in Feb/Apr"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2013245942422745569)  2026-01-19T13:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Aluminum lead zinc and nickel are all rallying together. When base metals move like this alongside gold $GLD and silver $SLV it often signals a supercycle. The supply case is simple: critical minerals are finite some come from unfriendly countries and you can't print them into existence. The demand case is also simple: electrification and defense spending both require metals. Wind turbines solar panels batteries data centers and military hardware all consume them. Inflationary policy agendas European remilitarization and Chinese stimulus are converging. All bullish for hard assets. Expect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2013326347846983826)  2026-01-19T19:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Many US pension funds have zero exposure to gold or miners. This is a huge pool of capital sitting on the sidelines. Investors divide into two camps. Some always own gold with 5-10% allocations and add miners for leverage. Others view gold as valueless because it yields nothing. The next leg up comes when the second group feels pressure to take exposure. This is already happening. Clients who hadn't engaged for years are calling because their clients ask why they don't own gold. If even 20% of institutions decide to allocate that alone could materially increase sector valuations You don't"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2013687485273120822)  2026-01-20T18:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"China has come up faster than any big nation in history. This creates a strategic reality that demands attention. Both countries would be crazy not to collaborate and increase trust. Nothing is more important for their respective safety and for the world. The relationship between these two nations will shape whether prosperity flourishes or conflict undermines the gains that compound growth promises"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2014019921672573114)  2026-01-21T16:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Investing is very person specific. What works for one investor may not work for another. Figure out what makes you comfortable. Diversification often beats extreme concentration. Extreme concentration requires extreme confidence. Most investors don't have enough to put everything into four or five stocks. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015877156044431867 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015877156044431867"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2015877156044431867)  2026-01-26T19:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"A portfolio of [--] to [--] stocks makes sense when investing in both younger and mature companies. Investing only in mature companies Probably get away with [--] or [--] names. A broader mix requires more diversification. [--] stocks out of [-----] public companies is still very selective. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015877168329605516 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015877168329605516"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2015877168329605516)  2026-01-26T19:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Test 6: Evaluating Price Paid Write down how much management paid for an acquisition and note whether they used cash stock or debt. What multiple did they pay for the business such as enterprise value to EBIT EBITDA or free cash flow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1963655818286617016)  2025-09-04T17:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Roll-ups where companies consolidate fragmented industries face similar challenges. Most roll-ups across funeral homes medical practices auto dealerships food service and waste disposal have failed to create value. Many went bankrupt after taking on excessive debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1965445011467796675)  2025-09-09T15:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@F_Compounders $FICO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2013570050154995901)  2026-01-20T11:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Maintain a watch list for ideas you like but that are overpriced today. Your stock may sit on your watch list for several years. But you should continue to reassess valuations and wait for a price that meets your threshold. Many large-cap positions start as watch-list names that become actionable when prices move into the valuation range. Also buy-and-forget doesn't work. If you buy because something is undervalued you should also have rules to sell when it becomes overvalued. Margin of safety applies on both sides. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016525682730479950"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2016525682730479950)  2026-01-28T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Financial statements reflect the business but they're not the business itself. Revenue growth or margin expansion can mask underlying problems. Sales pulled forward underinvestment unsustainable cost cuts or accounting effects that inflate ROIC. Valuation multiples alone ignore capital intensity leverage and time horizon. Risk measures like beta or volatility can distract from the real risk which is permanent loss of capital. What matters is the underlying business economics and durability. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016587114650226861"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2016587114650226861)  2026-01-28T19:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Aging companies that try to act young often destroy shareholder value. Financial signals of aging: revenue growth slowing from prior rapid rates margins plateauing or declining. Mature companies still generate substantial cash but growth slows. Behavioral signals: increased acquisition activity often indicates management turning outward because organic growth is harder to achieve. Acquisitions historically often fail to create value. Management quality matters more as companies age. Good managers recognize the company's lifecycle rather than trying to force unsustainable growth. Tim Cook at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2016889118698148154)  2026-01-29T15:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"This analysis aged well. for now $DECK $DECK has dropped 58%+ YTD (from $200 to $84). You can now buy $1.2B in annual EBIT $1.4B cash $900M+ FCF zero debtwith international revenue growing 38%all for 13x earnings. Is this a value trap or is the stock actually worth buying Let's find out: 🧵 https://t.co/0dMEtQzfXk $DECK has dropped 58%+ YTD (from $200 to $84). You can now buy $1.2B in annual EBIT $1.4B cash $900M+ FCF zero debtwith international revenue growing 38%all for 13x earnings. Is this a value trap or is the stock actually worth buying Let's find out: 🧵 https://t.co/0dMEtQzfXk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2017271366840656288)  2026-01-30T16:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Five simple reasons why you should create a stock watchlist: [--]. It helps you resist the urge to buy stocks on impulse. [--]. It focuses your attention on the best opportunities you've found. [--]. It lets you compare potential investments side-by-side. [--]. It shows how valuations change over time. [--]. It prepares you to act quickly when prices drop. Image: Michael Shearn's watchlist from "The Investment Checklist" (2011). https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1926011561564348512 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1926011561564348512"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1926011561564348512)  2025-05-23T20:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Real example: I analyzed [--] U.S. gas utilities companies. Began by calculating all six EQ components (excluded non-GAAP vs GAAP since reporting is inconsistent)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1950178912971214925)  2025-07-29T12:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Then ranked each component summed the scores and converted to final EQ Score. Results: $BIPC scored [---] (highest quality) $NJR scored [--] (lowest quality)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1950178933447770259)  2025-07-29T12:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$BIPC: First in 4/6 components (current accruals total accruals tax rate other asset growth) - indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. $NJR: Ranked poorly across most components - its earnings exceed actual cash generation exactly the pattern that precedes disappointing returns. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1950178948652134574 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1950178948652134574"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1950178948652134574)  2025-07-29T12:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Penn National Gaming over [--] years acquired six casino businesses that generated combined EBITDA of $454M for a going in multiple of 7.2x EBITDA lower than the 8.6x average that competitors paid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1963655830190116905)  2025-09-04T17:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Regardless some synergies do materialize when the customer base remains consistent. For instance $KFT successfully acquired General Foods because both served similar grocery shoppers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1965445023400628323)  2025-09-09T15:59Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Notably the company is already profitable. In [----] they generated $7.9M in revenue with 39% EBITDA margins. Moreover each dollar of capex generates $0.70 in ARR within [--] months of deployment with full GPU payback in [--] months vs. industry standard of [--] to [--] months"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1981485607076712926)  2025-10-23T22:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The growth numbers tell an interesting story: 2025E: $31.5M revenue (298% growth) 2026E: $170M to $190M revenue (midpoint $180M) EBITDA margins: approaching 80% At $10 per share with 61.4M shares outstanding the market cap is $614M (current price of $WLAC is $13/share). With $112.8M net cash enterprise value is about $501.5M implying 3.4x 2026E EV/Sales (midpoint of their [----] revenue guidance)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1981485625145774296)  2025-10-23T22:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Understanding a business and predicting its future are completely different skills. Here's two businesses you can reasonably forecast without much estimation error: 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1984258323311677551)  2025-10-31T13:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"1 Landstar $LSTR Landstar works like Uber for big rig trucking founded [--] years ago. They own no trucks just broker connections between truck drivers looking for loads and shippers looking for trucks. The revenue model is simple: Revenue = Loads Hauled Price per Load Truckloads are among the most correlated industries to GDP growth. As the economy expands more goods need shipping so trucking demand grows alongside it. After the trucker gets paid 50% of remaining revenue becomes profit for Landstar. On average 70% of each new dollar of net revenue becomes profit so margins keep increasing."  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1984258340026040543)  2025-10-31T13:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"2 Broadridge $BR Broadridge runs America's corporate voting systems and sends client statements and trade confirmations. Stock market performance doesn't matter to them. Trading volume doesn't matter either. What matters is position count. If one person owns [---] shares and another owns [--] million shares that's still two positions. Each gets one set of statements and one voting ballot. Broadridge earns fees per position not per share value. Over the last decade position counts have grown every year as barriers drop for small investors to enter markets. More positions means predictable revenue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1984258355393962383)  2025-10-31T13:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Airlines improved productivity 50x over [--] years. Tickets got cheaper. Shareholders got nothing. Why Every airline got the same technology. True advantages fall into two categories: 1) Superior products command premiums (Straumann's clinically proven dental implants). 2) Superior models create structural barriers (Inditex's 2-week supply chain others can't replicate). Real advantages make companies price makers not price takers. They set prices within reason without triggering demand erosion. When products become essential companies defy economic theory that competition should eliminate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1994058144008556646)  2025-11-27T14:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If AI went away tomorrow Alphabet $GOOGL Microsoft $MSFT and Amazon $AMZN would be hurt but still in business. That distinction matters. These companies are deploying AI with existing cash flow. They're funding new technology from a position of strength rather than betting an entire business on it. The difference shapes both risk and return profiles. Evaluate AI investments differently depending on whether the company has a profitable core business underneath. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018685963518743012 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018685963518743012"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2018685963518743012)  2026-02-03T14:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"🌾Want to learn how to analyze value and manage your stock portfolio Here's our complete list of resources. 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1920620121028018261)  2025-05-08T23:21Z [----] followers, 10.5K engagements


"Let's examine three real examples from [----] to [----] using their acquisitions to CFO ratios (see the model):"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1962500811357135071)  2025-09-01T13:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"1 $STRA (Strayer Education): Maintained 0% throughout the period never making acquisitions while still achieving steady growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1962500824111915473)  2025-09-01T13:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Enphase Energy $ENPH has dropped 70% over [--] years and 57% YTD (from $71 to $30). The solar leader just reported Q3 revenue of $410M its highest in [--] years. But management guides Q1 [----] to $250M a 39% decline. What's happening and is the market overreacting Let's find out: 🧵 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985722974524358840 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1985722974524358840"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1985722974524358840)  2025-11-04T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Lesson 3: The Strengths and Pitfalls of Thematic Investing Sustainable energy produced clear winners: $BYD and $TSLA in electric vehicles Vestas Wind and Terna Energy in wind power LONGi Green Energy and $ENPH in solar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/1960325953328148890)  2025-08-26T12:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The big question is whether AI disrupts all of this. The market seems worried that chatbots will disintermediate OTAs. Here's what the market isn't considering: AI agents are great at discovery and planning but terrible at transactions. ChatGPT can suggest destinations. It can't process a multi-thousand dollar international transaction involving hotel + flight + car rental across three currencies with customer service backup when something goes wrong. $BKNG is building the transaction infrastructure that AI agents need to rely on. They were launch partners for OpenAI's Operator platform and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190871288856748)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"KAYAK is $BKNG's meta-search engine a site that aggregates prices from across the web and sends users to the lowest bidder. This quarter Booking took a $457M writedown on KAYAK citing "expected increases in customer acquisition costs" for meta-search. The implication is that meta-search is getting commoditized by AI. ChatGPT can aggregate prices. Google AI Overviews can aggregate prices. But none of those tools can complete the transaction. Booking is signaling it sees less value in the discovery layer and more value in the transaction infrastructure layer."  
[X Link](https://x.com/StableBread/status/2008190886098903149)  2026-01-05T14:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements

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