# ![@Speedwell_LLC Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1566586267915075584.png) @Speedwell_LLC Speedwell Research

Speedwell Research posts on X about $csu, meta, business, $meta the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1566586267915075584/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1566586267915075584/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] +97%
- [--] Month [-------] +57%
- [--] Months [---------] +18%
- [--] Year [---------] +225%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1566586267915075584/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1566586267915075584/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -77%
- [--] Month [---] -9.80%
- [--] Months [---] +74%
- [--] Year [-----] +331%

### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1566586267915075584/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1566586267915075584/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +1.70%
- [--] Month [------] +5.30%
- [--] Months [------] +18%
- [--] Year [------] +59%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1566586267915075584/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1566586267915075584/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  [finance](/list/finance)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands)  [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands)  [countries](/list/countries)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [currencies](/list/currencies) 

**Social topic influence**
[$csu](/topic/$csu) #2, [meta](/topic/meta), [business](/topic/business) #3503, [$meta](/topic/$meta) #306, [$rh](/topic/$rh) #5, [$axon](/topic/$axon), [$lvmh](/topic/$lvmh), [$cprt](/topic/$cprt) #140, [$cpng](/topic/$cpng) #29, [$evo](/topic/$evo) #9

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@alphasenseinc](/creator/undefined) [@bizalmanac](/creator/undefined) [@speedwellllc](/creator/undefined) [@tsohinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@chitchatstocks](/creator/undefined) [@joinyellowbrick](/creator/undefined) [@kevg1412](/creator/undefined) [@invesquotes](/creator/undefined) [@quartrapp](/creator/undefined) [@themattharbaugh](/creator/undefined) [@varunv_malhotra](/creator/undefined) [@william_r2rclub](/creator/undefined) [@ccmbrett](/creator/undefined) [@borrowedideas](/creator/undefined) [@fromvalue](/creator/undefined) [@pandawatch88](/creator/undefined) [@sleepwellcap](/creator/undefined) [@realroseceline](/creator/undefined) [@arnytrezzi](/creator/undefined) [@fundasyinvestor](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [RH (RH)](/topic/$rh) [Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON)](/topic/$axon) [Copart, Inc. (CPRT)](/topic/$cprt) [Coupang, Inc.  (CPNG)](/topic/$cpng) [Evotec SE (EVO)](/topic/$evo) [Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND)](/topic/$fnd) [Spotify Technology (SPOT)](/topic/$spot) [Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)](/topic/$abnb) [CoStar Group, Inc. (CSGP)](/topic/$csgp) [APi Group Corporation (APG)](/topic/$apg) [Perimeter Solutions, SA (PRM)](/topic/$prm) [Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (DFH)](/topic/$dfh) [AppFolio, Inc. Class A (APPF)](/topic/$appf) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [TransDigm Group, Inc. (TDG)](/topic/$tdg) [Etsy Inc (ETSY)](/topic/$etsy) [4 (FOUR)](/topic/$four) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Home Depot, Inc. (HD)](/topic/$hd) [Intel Corporation (INTC)](/topic/$intc) [Netflix Inc (NFLX)](/topic/$nflx)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Before Jim Sinegal at $COST exhibited the best of Economies of Scale Shared the Hartford brothers stumbled upon the model half a century earlier with A&P"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1627774506763964416)  2023-02-20T20:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"RH no longer pays for Google Ads"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1628090715900379136)  2023-02-21T17:54Z 10.9K followers, 12.8K engagements


"The less formal of a business education you have the more likely you are to understand your business. Here $CPRT President Jay Adair cuts off an analyst to explain theyd never look at an acquisition based off a revenue multiple. (Jay started working at CPRT at age 19)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1640394264910905344)  2023-03-27T16:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"6/ While we argued in our original report that we didnt think it made sense to both burden FCF with this charge and then back out the earnings associated with the ownership of the stake they have since increased their recognized equity interest and reduced the NCI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1641879849655738370)  2023-03-31T19:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"7/ Still an investor might want to back it out to better reflect underlying FCF. (note acquisitions arent included) This adjustment increased FCF to $965mn from $853mn in [----]. FCFA2S has compounded at 14% since [----] (a figure that is 400bps higher w/o the IRGA liab.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1641879856064630785)  2023-03-31T19:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"8/ Pulling out from the weeds CSUs success will be dictated by their ability to deploy ever growing amounts of cash into acquisitions. Below shows acquisitions as a % of FCF exceeded 100% the past two years. They spent $1.6bn on acquisitions in [----] their largest ever"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1641879862507089920)  2023-03-31T19:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"9/ Larger acquisitions like the Allscripts transaction ($727mn) and incurring a moderate amount of debt could keep this figure elevated a great outcome for CSU shareholders. At almost a $40bn valuation today CSU trades at a 3% earnings yield (adding back IRGA)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1641879865459879936)  2023-03-31T19:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$CPRT on spending $10mn on a NASCAR sponsorship: If it doesnt work we wont keep doing it. We are not in the business of getting people to know about us and not buy from us"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1648343574105456642)  2023-04-18T15:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CPRT on how moving to a digital auction allowed for new data collection capabilities. This allowed for marketing of similar vehicles to bidders who lost increasing returns for CPRT and the insurance companies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1649106865694052354)  2023-04-20T17:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$RH [----] earnings recap and investment thesis update below. We will post updates on $FND and $CPNG soon. Subscribe to our Substack to make sure you receive them and our other posts on accounting valuation top managers and more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1649845789936713728)  2023-04-22T18:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"While the sell-side is put in the unenviable position of attempting to figure out what changes in a business on a monthly time horizon $CPRT does a good job of reminding them thats not how business actually works"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1659212580974649344)  2023-05-18T15:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Become a member today to get access to the full $CPRT report as well as our others"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1660786386834972672)  2023-05-22T23:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"What is a long-term time horizon For $CPRT that answer is a [--] to [--] year time horizon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1666873619564351488)  2023-06-08T18:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Success could mean the company trades at 7-10x [----] owner earnings for a business that has a long history of growing double digits and margins that average 30%. However it is not without risksand no one in this industry has deep moats. (10/12)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1679238940409360384)  2023-07-12T21:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"If you have a strong value prop and arent dominant in an industry yet you can grow through headwinds. $FND guided FY2023 to +8-11% y/y despite macro and strong comps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1686394429182197761)  2023-08-01T15:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FND reported 2Q23 SSS -6% but total sales +4.2% Tom Taylor notes that at least they are still growing whereas peers are struggling. Full earnings recap to come tomorrow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1687278905034723328)  2023-08-04T01:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$FND reported 2Q23. Market reacted sending the stock down -6%. Results might look weak but in the context of the macro backdrop they are fine and mgmt. continues to execute on their [---] store plan. Full update below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1687514577557438464)  2023-08-04T17:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Throughout the call they emphasized the tough macro environment particularly the weak home sales figures which they expect to be 4.1mn to 4.3mn for the full year (600k lower than prior assumed). This is the lowest since the financial crisis. However they coupled this commentary with a confidence in their offerings vs competitors and belief that Floor & Decor will be a market share gainer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1687514647241674752)  2023-08-04T17:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Nevertheless they were too optimistic in 1Q and lowered their sales guidance $150-220mn to $4.61- 4.75bn driven by lower SSS expectations of -7% to -5.5% from prior guidance of -3% to flat. The new guidance now represents +8-11% y/y sales growth for the full year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1687514648906768384)  2023-08-04T17:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Floor & Decor continues to focus on reaching their [---] warehouse store target and is gaining market share through this macro calamity while improving their consumer & pro value props and spinning up tangential opportunities like commercial sales. With [---] stores earning the $30mn that a mature store does that is $15bn in sales. With operating leverage expanding mature margins to 15% that is $1.75bn in owner earnings after tax. Todays market cap is $11.1bn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1687514653788938242)  2023-08-04T17:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If you enjoyed this post please like and share so we know to produce more content like it. Also follow our new podcast here where we will cover $FND in the future. Our second episode of $RH will be released this Sunday"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1687514655529549824)  2023-08-04T17:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"For the full [--] page $FND report become a Speedwell Member today where you will also get access to our $CSU $CPRT $RH $META $WD reports among others"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1687514656951431168)  2023-08-04T17:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@IntrinsicInv Data might be off. Tile Shop reported sales -9% so seems unlikely they were a share gainer and $FND wasnt (Assuming its the same as Tile Store) Also ceding to LL would be anomalous vs history Fwiw Tom Taylor said they were gaining share (but hard to corroborate)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1687645588387745792)  2023-08-05T02:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$FND update can be found here https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/floor-and-decor-2q2023 https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/floor-and-decor-2q2023"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1687896654144471040)  2023-08-05T18:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$RH pulling from Meituans playbook"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1688648858338054148)  2023-08-07T20:30Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements


"The #1 material used to make products on Etsy is love. Cute but not useful for our search engine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1692939185093505486)  2023-08-19T16:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ETSY now has three different search models they merged together (relational exact match and neural inference) to help solve the problem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1692939187597574178)  2023-08-19T16:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"🎙 Speedwell just released our 3rd podcast of The Synopsis. This week we cover Copart in great detail drawing from our [--] page report The Synopsis Podcast links below Apple: Spotify: More on $CPRT 1/ Junkyards wrecked cars a duopoly 30% operating margins and two self-made billionaires: this is the story of Copart. https://t.co/XHnziWE48f 1/ Junkyards wrecked cars a duopoly 30% operating margins and two self-made billionaires: this is the story of Copart. https://t.co/XHnziWE48f"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1699075630745407996)  2023-09-05T15:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"But in the eyes of one FTC economist Microsoft was a national treasure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1707400035485307166)  2023-09-28T14:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"🎙 New Episode This week we introduce our Consumers Hierarchy of Preferences framework and talk: -Product/ Market Fit -Chipotle v Taco Bell -Etsy -Consumer Surplus as Churn Mitigation -Sees Candy & Psychology -Amzn Temu Shein & more Podcast links in next Tweet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1708878017471172740)  2023-10-02T16:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"7/ Habitual buyers are still 3x what they were before the pandemic. The 12% drop in habitual buyers from peak while not great has stabilized as of last quarter (and those buyers didnt churn they just purchased a couple times less compared to 2021)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1710025201319362844)  2023-10-05T20:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"8/ And while CEO Josh Silverman admits acquisition mistakes he never did fall prey to the Covid overhiring binge that other tech companies partook in. You might even look positively at how quickly he openly admitted an error rather than hiding it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1710025203445846424)  2023-10-05T20:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"9/ Remember before he took over Etsy in [----] they were experiencing quarter after quarter of falling growth. In a single quarter after being appointed CEO Josh Silverman reaccelerated revenue growth and simultaneously increased profitability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1710025208575533547)  2023-10-05T20:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"10/ Under Silverman Etsy has emerged as one of very few successful and profitable marketplaces generating $400mn FCF despite materially stepping up marketing and R&D investments"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1710025210437788021)  2023-10-05T20:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"16/ But they still have a long way to go before they successfully wedge themselves into tens of millions of consumers regular purchase habits. If successful they will own all purchase occasions where consumers look for something special"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1710025225369518325)  2023-10-05T20:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"17/ But what stands in Etsys way of success What competitive advantages do they really have How has capital allocation been historically Valuation Risks We cover all of this and much more in Speedwells [--] page research report on $ETSY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1710025226766160272)  2023-10-05T20:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Addressing the right consumer preferences is critical to creating a sale. If there is a preference that is insufficiently addressed you cannot make a sale. When Chipotle had their E. coli scare they tried to address tepid demand with a buy [--] get [--] promo. It didnt work"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1710701780584288660)  2023-10-07T17:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Speedwell Weekly Recap Edition #9: Two for One E. Coli Burritos Gas Stations as CAC Homemade Marketplaces Taco Bell's Job to Be Done and Flooring w/ Chit Chat Money 👉 Link in bio"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1711744313263357996)  2023-10-10T14:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"In [----] Xerox acquired a property and casualty insurer then an investment advisor and then a brokerage house. They would lose $2.8bn and exit the financial services business a decade later. Capital Allocation is everything"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1711818358218522639)  2023-10-10T18:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Background: Comdisco was a computer-leasing company that wanted to diversify. They launched Prism as an internet & voice service but since they didnt have a national network they rented it from competitors that offered a similar product with better customer service"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1712151546455347711)  2023-10-11T17:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Sol Price pioneered the warehouse store format and merged his Price Club with Costco in [----]. Below are [--] lessons he learned early in his life when he was a lawyer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1712856111467151376)  2023-10-13T15:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I like the willingness to experiment provided they limit their initial outlay. Who would have thought restaurants in RH furniture stores would do $10mn+ or consumers wouldnt mind shopping in bear warehouses from pallets. Was just reading on Sol Price its not always obvious what should work"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1712988056486281454)  2023-10-14T00:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$CPRT made a strategic investment in heavy equipment auction company Purple Wave. Ritchie Bros who recently acquired IAA is the largest player in this market. Jeff Liaw notes Copart already sells $100mn+ of yellow metal. Will they get more serious about this market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1713958320179167272)  2023-10-16T16:41Z 10.9K followers, 19.1K engagements


"Its worth remembering most great companies will trade near their all time highs most of their lives"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1714742151253508416)  2023-10-18T20:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Charlie Munger on why buying great companies doesnt always work. As much as we talk about Buffetts shift to quality he rarely buys something that trades above a 15x multiple looking a few years out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1715045220302364861)  2023-10-19T16:40Z 10.9K followers, 12.3K engagements


"One must be sure managers are seeing things as they are rather than as they hope them to be. Same could be said about investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1715376507529646100)  2023-10-20T14:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Everything has been considered a growth stock at one time or another. Even aluminum was considered a growth industry. - Jim Rogers (George Soross partner)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1715787997910847604)  2023-10-21T17:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"🎙 New Episode Released Up this week: Etsy We cover: 🔹How they beat $AMZN and $EBAY 🔹Early Fumbles (Macys and retail push) 🔹The Turnaround (Silverman reassigned 80% of roles) 🔹Buyer Behavior & Signs Frequency is Improving And more Podcast Links Below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1716468818732831009)  2023-10-23T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Because of course financial markets are a tangential industry to gambling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1719035682243637360)  2023-10-30T16:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"5) Our RH 2Q23 Business Update"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1721557074184953876)  2023-11-06T15:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"6) Our Extensive RH Research Report. ($) This [--] page report is the most comprehensive research you will find on RH. Become a member today to read it and many others including $CPRT $CSU $FND and many more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1721557080384192586)  2023-11-06T15:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The $MTCH conundrum: If you are attractive youll never need to pay and if you arent paying wont do much. @CCM_Brett Its a little more philosophical than analytical but Ive never like the uneven value transfer between the people who pay for the service compared to those who get the most value for the product. Said differently if are good looking youll never need to pay and if you arent @CCM_Brett Its a little more philosophical than analytical but Ive never like the uneven value transfer between the people who pay for the service compared to those who get the most value for the product. Said"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1721659478071025976)  2023-11-06T22:43Z [----] followers, 14.1K engagements


"$MTCH is basically an ad network where they charge for impressions and you are the product. There are two points of friction though: 1) if a product doesnt sell advertising seldom fixes the issue 2) success-based advertising isnt feasible"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1722304336582361534)  2023-11-08T17:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Chipotle vs Taco Bell is not a trivial matter. Early investors passed on Chipotle because there already was a fast food Mexican chain Their analysis ultimately boils down to a misunderstanding of TAMs and preferences. We introduced a better framework"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1724818626304520678)  2023-11-15T15:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"DFH then embarked on a slew of acquisitions. In contrast to the frothy valuations many acquisitions were consummated at in the covid stock market bubble DFH was acquiring smaller home builders for 5x earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1725551925519941925)  2023-11-17T16:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Today they now generate over $3.6bn in revenues and net earnings are $275mn This is a revenue CAGR of over 50% in the past [--] years. Incredibly in just [--] years Patrick Zalupski has become a billionaire from one of the oldest industries: construction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1725551930557214995)  2023-11-17T16:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"With high interest rates and building cost inflation many investors have shied away from home builders. But since existing home sales plummeted as many home owners locked in much lower interest rates home buyers are much more reliant on new home construction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1725551935384859001)  2023-11-17T16:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Additionally there is a housing shortage in the US. In [----] Freddie Mac estimated there is a 3.8mn home shortfall. Public builders $LEN and $PHM estimate there is 1.5mn of annual new home demand versus 1mn homes completed in 2022"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1725551942112522617)  2023-11-17T16:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The key is making sure the builder survives any downturn Here the capital-light model is helpful They dont buy land until they are ready to build on it They also dont develop land like other public builders This reduces capital commitment and increases turnover"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1725551954770931817)  2023-11-17T16:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"There is one other capital-light builder $NVR and they have been a 145x bagger since [----]. They also were profitable through the financial crisis when other builders took large losses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1725551957690167369)  2023-11-17T16:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@microcapmindset Similar but they wont go into manufacturing and their geographical footprint is less concentrated for their size. They also allow more customizations vs NVR I think these strategy differences will make it hard to match NVRs inventory turns but can still be a good business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1726269140544151570)  2023-11-19T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Enjoyed this short thread re: $NVR vs $DFH @microcapmindset Similar but they wont go into manufacturing and their geographical footprint is less concentrated for their size. They also allow more customizations vs NVR I think these strategy differences will make it hard to match NVRs inventory turns but can still be a good business @microcapmindset Similar but they wont go into manufacturing and their geographical footprint is less concentrated for their size. They also allow more customizations vs NVR I think these strategy differences will make it hard to match NVRs inventory turns but can"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1726799596234633431)  2023-11-21T03:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$HD on e-comm. circa [----] During this period of dot-com mania we believe that the most successful online retailers will be those who know how to extend to the Internet their brands bricks & mortar assets and customer service. May have been early but strategy was sound"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1729545048704843948)  2023-11-28T16:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The problem with the buy a great company at any price is not the return but instead the risk inherent in the required assumptions. In this piece we look at what an investor would need to assume in [----] in order to invest in $HD (Free through Newsletter Link in Bio)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1731704373305389320)  2023-12-04T15:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Id describe it less as an AI specific risk and more just that the risk of consumer behavior changing is higher (as the result of AI) Its more akin the the platform shifts present opportunities/ risk argument Think of FB navigating the mobile transition. Their business may have still thrived on mobile but they still lost their whole developer/ app business. The form of how people search in the future could destroy those nice sponsored links"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1732615503808766210)  2023-12-07T04:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This accounting-centric piece showcases how a footnote can totally and investors analysis. Maybe they thought $BABA had a take-rate of 6% but found out it was really 50% higher after digging in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1734259769152791003)  2023-12-11T17:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Free through the Newsletter link in bio. Look for the article titled Accounting Insights: Alibaba JD and the $330bn footnote"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1734259771140907066)  2023-12-11T17:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The reason it is hard to compete against $FND is competitors are unwilling to copy these two decisions. These two decisions are necessary to optimize for pros and consumers preferences"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1735312554220736996)  2023-12-14T14:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"🎙 *New Podcast* Today we released a [--] minute in-depth podcast on Floor & Decor. We cover everything from single store concept to becoming the Costco of flooring. Apple: Spotify:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1737487471628136510)  2023-12-20T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Before looking at the dollar amounts does this even make sense in theory If you believe that 1) Etsy products are unique/ differentiated vs Temu and 2) Etsy is buying on a CPA basis then shouldnt the cost for Etsy to acquire a buyer be generally unaffected Isnt implicit in these comments the idea that Etsy products are undifferentiated vs cheap stuff from China (In other words a different vertical like travel wouldnt blame Temu for high ad costs so doesnt Etsy blaming Temu imply they attract similar audiences Curious because this of course contradicts Etsys unique value prop claims but maybe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1737517937899315381)  2023-12-20T16:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This creates a rivalry between game supplier and casino operator for the players loyalty. So when asking What happens when you combine one worlds oldest and most profitable businesses with the scale the internet brings 3/11"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1737566766333931911)  2023-12-20T20:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"It turns out the answer is the casino operator gets squeezed and increasingly commoditized to the benefit of the biggest game supplier whose business boasts 100% free cash flow conversion 100%+ ROIC 60%+ margins and revenues that have grown at a 50% CAGR since [----]. 4/11"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1737566767554400531)  2023-12-20T20:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This game supplier is Evolution. ( $EVO $EVVTY) When they were founded they didnt focus on more populated verticals like sports betting or digital slots but instead created their own category: live casino. 5/11"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1737566768783319432)  2023-12-20T20:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The decision to in-house logistics wasnt just made by Amazon but also Alibaba & Mercado Libre. Both Alibaba & Mercado Libre would also build their own payment infrastructure. They understood when to use a modular solution versus build a proprietary one (Article link in bio)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1739696600719720499)  2023-12-26T17:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Our [----] year-end review: 🔸 Published [------] words 🔸 Recorded [--] hours of content 🔸 [--] Podcast features 🔸 Our research report was mentioned on an earnings call Thank you all for a wonderful [----] and Happy New Year (👉 Newsletter link in bio for full piece)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1741515328335794655)  2023-12-31T17:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Many of the best companies were led by founders who didnt believe in special treatment. Instead they used their sacrifices to set an example for company-wide standards. Hyundai founder Chung Ju-yung below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1744875856101826577)  2024-01-10T00:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The cost of losing reputation is always too expensive. Its not just a platitude. It makes financial sense if you think of your reputation as bringing future opportunities and trust as building goodwill to withstand inevitable setbacks. Below Hyundai founder Chung Ju-yung"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1745131092267434367)  2024-01-10T17:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"*New Memo Released* This week we cover: 🔸 Threats to $GOOG Dominance 🔸 How AI Changes Competition 🔸 Where Google Previously Competed 🔸 Apple Product Encroachment 📖 Read through the Newsletter link 🎧 Listen through Podcast link (Links in bio)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745846095379632504)  2024-01-12T16:32Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"Incredible investment malpractice has been caused by the phrase its an above average business trading at a market multiple"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1746596906078519765)  2024-01-14T18:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"We *just released* a short podcast on threats to Googles Search Dominance. It builds off of last weeks memo on Google and AI. Links below 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1746938086653870418)  2024-01-15T16:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Apple link:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1746938088843297121)  2024-01-15T16:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I always wondered how such a great book got such a bad title I literally would apologize for the title as I recommended it. Mystery solved. It was supposed to be Any Fool Can Be a Stock Market Genius and the editor made him change it with one days notice. (Apparently fool reminded people of Motley Fool) His dad suggested You Too Can Be a Stock Market Genius and he went with it. He regretted that choice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1746987227157323916)  2024-01-15T20:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Finished recording our next company podcast episode. This will be a monster of an episode around [---] hours. Starting to think The Synopsis was the wrong name for a podcast that tries to cover everything Look for its release next week (Links in next tweet)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1747105195056894189)  2024-01-16T03:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Apple: Spotify:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1747105196927586808)  2024-01-16T03:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@JSiegel88 @kevg1412 Yeah its this one 👇 Chung Ju-yung was the Founder of Hyundai Group (which only got into cars much much later they basically built a material portion of all of Koreas infrastructure)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1747687579494080748)  2024-01-17T18:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"When investing you cannot borrow confidence. Relying on others to make decisions usually ends poorly. Joel Tillinghast interview with @JRogrow below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1747734612061888738)  2024-01-17T21:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@bizalmanac @breadcrumbsre Congrats man I definitely agree that writing helps you think as an investor. Many times Id stop writing mid-sentence realizing what I thought previously wasnt true"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1748034919409029298)  2024-01-18T17:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Full podcast links 👇 Apple: Spotify:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1748089636906549268)  2024-01-18T21:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$CPRT stock repurchase history In [--] years time went from never buying back stock to using all their cash on repurchases and issuing debt to further shrink the share count In one year alone they bought back 20% of the company"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1748460535711170794)  2024-01-19T21:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Weve done a slight rebrand *All our Memos are now  through .* Latest on: - $GOOG & AI Risk - Modularization: $AMZN vs $AAPL - Buffetts Cost of Equity - Pricing $HD - Piton Network Framework - Lessons from $CPRT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1749473774729347267)  2024-01-22T16:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Someone proposed installing a separate elevator for executives at HQ. I rejected the idea on the spot. I truly despise the inflated sense of superiority held by executives who expect different treatment from their workers. More common sentiment among founders than CEOs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1749831827622433049)  2024-01-23T16:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"From Chung Ju-yung Founder of Hyundai Group"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1749832005435740626)  2024-01-23T16:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Apple: Spotify:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1750240455806345425)  2024-01-24T19:33Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"*New Memo Released* We go in-depth into ecommerce company Wish to see what went wrong: 🔸Wish Business Model 🔸LTV Analysis 🔸Apple Lego Crocs Turnarounds 🔸S&M Breakdown 🔸Where Pinduoduo Differed 🔸Estimating Churn (Links in next Tweet)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1750923010746487135)  2024-01-26T16:45Z [----] followers, 18.1K engagements


"A secondary market margin lending and short sellers all sprang up within a decade of the first joint-stock company The year 1602"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1751455584040452447)  2024-01-28T04:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Thought this piece was interesting regarding $GOOG just because you invent the future it doesnt mean you get to enjoy the benefits from it nor does it guarantee that future generations will remember your contributions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1752793386090950778)  2024-01-31T20:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Thank you to all of our listeners🙏🏻 Very kind font size choices on Spotifys behalf. (To find out what Sweden is already catching on to links in next Tweet)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1753218492919366063)  2024-02-02T00:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Spotify: Apple:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1753218495163293744)  2024-02-02T00:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"*New Memo Released* This memo covers a new framework to help you think better as an analyst. We cover: 🔸How $SQ Beat $AMZN 🔸Why $F Needs a Standalone EV Business 🔸Netflixs advantage in [----] 🔸Where Gopuff wins 🔸 $FND and copying (Links in next Tweet)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1753430299084730884)  2024-02-02T14:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Hundreds of hours of research goes into every report we write. We sell the reports for $400 each but our Podcast is FREE. We now have released *seven* in-depth company episodes that draw on our reports. Here is a short thread of each episode with links 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1753856044688634319)  2024-02-03T19:00Z 10.9K followers, 19.9K engagements


"1) Copart Learn from Willis Johnsons early business intuition & movement from the lowest wrung of the salvage vehicle value chain as a liquidator to a critical service provider for insurance companies. 🎧 Spotify: 🎧Apple:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1753856070836007150)  2024-02-03T19:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"2) RH Learn from Restoration Hardwares early business failings as well as the incredible turnaround and business transformation Gary Friedman led. 🎧 Spotify: 🎧Apple:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1753856077567869128)  2024-02-03T19:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"3) Evolution Studying this unique business will teach listeners about the importance of value chain positioning negotiating leverage and how to maintain a lucrative business in a competitive industry. 🎧 Spotify: 🎧Apple:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1753856083616047269)  2024-02-03T19:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"4) Floor & Decor Learn about a business that insulates itself from competition with an interlocking business model that creates a hard to copy value prop. 🎧 Spotify: 🎧Apple:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1753856089429279228)  2024-02-03T19:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"5) Etsy Learn how an ecommerce company staked out a niche against Amazon and how Josh Silverman led a turnaround at Etsy in [----]. 🎧 Spotify: 🎧Apple:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1753856094743519450)  2024-02-03T19:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"6) Meta Learn why Zuckerberg succeeded where MySpace & Friendster failed and how Meta *actually* makes money with an in-depth ad tech primer. 🎧 Spotify: 🎧Apple:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1753856101655744900)  2024-02-03T19:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"7) Dream Finders Homes Learn how founder Patrick Zalupski became a billionaire by building homes in the midst of the Great Recession in [----] and how their business model is superior. 🎧 Spotify: 🎧Apple:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1753856108068847936)  2024-02-03T19:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Rowan_M_Wood Possible but to be honest not high up on the list. Am I wrong to not be interested"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1753953104566112699)  2024-02-04T01:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"*New Podcast Episode* We introduce a new mental model and talk: 🔸The Piton Network 🔸Southwest Ford $FND 🔸Decision Clusters 🔸Wal-Mart vs $AMZN delivery 🔸Meta-optimizations 🔸 The Innovation Stack and $SQ 🔸The Value of Metaphor (Links in next Tweet)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1754900455279452449)  2024-02-06T16:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@GHadjia Yeah I feel like people just extrapolate Metas results totally forgetting how different the ad tech stack is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1754980905666715748)  2024-02-06T21:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$BABA may have reported earnings today but what wont be in the numbers is this important accounting understanding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1755280913179775293)  2024-02-07T17:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"A Super Bowl ad spot is $7 million for [--] seconds. Copart didnt do that. Instead they did: One sponsorship. For one year. Once. Then they never advertised like that again because it worked. $CPRT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1756741202752537087)  2024-02-11T18:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"We walk through how to value Home Depot (a growth stock) in [----] **        . (Links in next Tweet)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1757064601764778298)  2024-02-12T15:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"📖 Read here: 🎧 Listen Spotify: 🎧 Listen Apple:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1757064604042309934)  2024-02-12T15:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"*New Synopsis Podcast Released* We talk about: 🔹 $ETSY Value Prop Issues and Temu Read-through 🔹 How an investor could have been right to sell $META a year ago. 🔹How to gain clarity with Meta circa [----] (drawing on Speedwells Report) Enjoy (Links next Tweet)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1757424030842495343)  2024-02-13T15:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@borrowed_ideas allowed us to share his pushback on our recently published Podcast episode (links in next Tweet) *Tomorrow* we will publish an interview with MBI whos our first guest We talk more about $Meta $Goog $Msft the investment process and much more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1757491281545339106)  2024-02-13T19:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"*New Memo Released* This weeks memo is a message to founders and entrepreneurs on how public markets can grab control of your narrative. (Links in next Tweet)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1758521864668975488)  2024-02-16T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"📖 Read here: 🎧 Listen Spotify: 🎧 Listen Apple:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1758521866921328868)  2024-02-16T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@jaginger @borrowed_ideas Good catch thank you. ✌ (The formatting setting broke the calculation)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1758616239058882763)  2024-02-16T22:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"You cant see the counterfactual though bc survivorship bias. Ie if private equity successfully wrestled Constellation Software from Mark Leonard in [----] then you wouldnt know to include it as a great businesses The converse is true too where there likely wouldnt be an Amazon without the tech bubble giving them ample opportunity to raise funds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1759643372640477456)  2024-02-19T18:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$CPRT spent $29mn to develop an ERP system. It didnt work. So they wrote it all off and simply explained We thought it be right but it wasnt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1759962896719855656)  2024-02-20T15:27Z 10.9K followers, [----] engagements


"$ETSY just reported 4Q23. Another year down another year to stretch that comp range. 2021: GMS +154% on a two-year basis 2022: GMS +145 on a three-year basis 2023: GMS +142% on a four-year basis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1760420766527656060)  2024-02-21T21:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"We know the importance of adopting new technology But the critical factor is to  to it. $CPRT didnt just use internet auctions in [----] They ripped out their old system just [--] years later. IAA wouldnt make that decision for [--] years until 2020"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1760691502010040755)  2024-02-22T15:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"📖 Read here: 🎧 Listen Apple: 🎧 Listen Spotify:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1760691504732160370)  2024-02-22T15:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"*New Memo Released* We cover: 🔹How Long Term Investors Lie to Themselves 🔹Why stock price moves on quarterly earnings can be farsighted 🔹When perceived value becomes more important than intrinsic value (career risk) (Links in next Tweet)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1761042469331112268)  2024-02-23T14:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"A greatly under estimated driver of the stock market: career risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1761447640389374328)  2024-02-24T17:46Z 10.9K followers, [----] engagements


"A company that focuses on their customers optimizes for what matters most. A company that focus on the competition risk creating something no one wants"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1762131193536061455)  2024-02-26T15:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Read here: 🎧 Listen Spotify: 🎧 Listen Apple:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1762131196035883136)  2024-02-26T15:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"A lot of attention is spent on CAC But more often than CAC it is the spend to existing buyers where problems show up. Below we estimated that Wish spent almost half of S&M to  buyers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1762502140545941603)  2024-02-27T15:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@CJ0pp3l Haha thanks 0% chance I was gonna get that (Actually looked it up on Google too and couldnt find it quickly)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1763056939813224810)  2024-02-29T04:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"For this weeks memo We have Constellation Softwares Business History This is an excerpt from our Constellation Software Report. Links to read or listen in the next Tweet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1763592915245580406)  2024-03-01T15:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I basically think of it as partitioning out the development from the building Development is a lower returning activity but generally seen as less risky since you are buying a hard asset (whether thats true or not is another question). Sometimes DFH wants to buy land though but they cannot find a partner. In this circumstances they can use DF Capital to purchase the land on their behalf It makes sense that they do not want to own DF Capital as then they would no longer be capital-light and would have exposure to development DF Capital has investors who DFH wants to give a good and fair return"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1765023532214534540)  2024-03-05T14:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"📖 Read here: 🎧 Listen Spotify: 🎧 Listen Apple:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1766124427417411980)  2024-03-08T15:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Estimating demand is key to a retailers success. But only sales can convey if merchandising was done correctly. In our last memo we explain how Zara and Shein account for this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1767190363486519701)  2024-03-11T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"#5. The Consumer's Hierarchy of Preferences: The Other Side of the Consumer Value Prop 🔸Introduces The Consumers Hierarchy of Preferences. (Another one of my favorites)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1770835620945928704)  2024-03-21T15:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"#4. Accounting Insights: Alibaba JD and the $330bn Footnote 🔸An in-depth accounting piece that shows how to use financial disclosures and footnotes to come to a potentially thesis changing discovery"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1770835632580952351)  2024-03-21T15:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"📄*New Memo Released*   to investors by this graph than any other single depiction. In this weeks memo we explore a better way to understand risk and reward. Links in next Tweet 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1771171551653851184)  2024-03-22T13:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"📖 Read here: 🎧 Listen Spotify: 🎧 Listen Apple:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1771171558712856966)  2024-03-22T13:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@pandawatch88 Haha 😆 Glad you like it so far"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1772981606564704265)  2024-03-27T13:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"*New Memo Released* In this weeks memo 🔸we go over why the number of investments in a portfolio 🔸must be matched by the investment risk profile of each (Links to read or listen below)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1773716073239785517)  2024-03-29T14:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"What a wild ethos: We never talk to customers after we sell them $CSGP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1775959691023237554)  2024-04-04T18:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Seems to be a regular sentiment among successful companies: Focus on the value prop not the competition. $CSGP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1778462411760222310)  2024-04-11T16:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Id highlight that the developing offerings are reducing ebit by about 50% so Id look at just core commerce separately Also Id focus more on gmv than revenue because of the distortions 1p vs 3p creates. Some revenue growth like layering in advertising is probably lower risk than growing GMV but no doubt they need both"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1778542139695366236)  2024-04-11T21:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"*New Memo Released* This weeks memo covers: 🔸Why a Super Market functions similarly to a SuperApp 🔸History on WeChats Dominance 🔸Meituan Founders Key Insight 🔸Does Grab count as a SuperApp (Links in next Tweet)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1778800401313399134)  2024-04-12T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"📖 Read: 🎧 Spotify: 🎧 Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-synopsis/id1699073398i=1000652239399 https://open.spotify.com/episode/7IU0UZbBQNWbWgaqKgGtuKsi=3Jfi9_nQQGyZm41ziDe2pw https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/wechat-meituan-and-grab-superapp https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-synopsis/id1699073398i=1000652239399 https://open.spotify.com/episode/7IU0UZbBQNWbWgaqKgGtuKsi=3Jfi9_nQQGyZm41ziDe2pw https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/wechat-meituan-and-grab-superapp"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1778800403842580932)  2024-04-12T15:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If efficiency was the focus WeChat wouldnt exist. Tencent Founder Pony Ma commonly pitted multiple teams against each other to pursue an opportunity. Allen Zhang WeChat creator was the second team. Redundancy isnt always bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1779173579420045376)  2024-04-13T15:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Thiel set up PayPal to avoid competition Tencents Pony Ma pitted teams against each other to increase competition. Its ironic bc Thiel talks about the inability to draw lessons from failure. Seems to apply to success as well. No one knows anything. H/T @david_perell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1781372698352087441)  2024-04-19T17:22Z [----] followers, 18.7K engagements


"$Meta explained in one chart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1783872186761297990)  2024-04-26T14:54Z 10.9K followers, 22K engagements


"There is probably a broader lesson here but my take-away. don't sue Andy Florance. $CSGP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1784980992463344090)  2024-04-29T16:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Capex runs ahead of depreciation (2x higher for Meta for example) so it follows that earnings are overstated but its not clear if they are over or under earning on a cash flow basis unless you take an opinion of growth capex. The maintenance vs growth capex matters because you are trying to get to normalized capex or in other words when the accounting treatment of capex matches the economic reality of it (capex to depreciation ration of 1x) The delineation also matters for ROIC because if its all maintenance capex then in theory their deprecation is too low and thus the asset base is inflated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1785060315698229658)  2024-04-29T21:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$ETSY just reported 1Q24 and their core marketplace GMS is -5% y/y We released this show [--] months ago but the Etsy section touched on some of the issues we see with their results today (Links in the quoted Tweet 👇 Etsy talk time stamped) *New Synopsis Podcast Released* We talk about: 🔹 $ETSY Value Prop Issues and Temu Read-through 🔹 How an investor could have been right to sell $META a year ago. 🔹How to gain clarity with Meta circa [----] (drawing on Speedwells Report) Enjoy (Links next Tweet) https://t.co/d8r8J2W3XN *New Synopsis Podcast Released* We talk about: 🔹 $ETSY Value Prop Issues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1785781294791798986)  2024-05-01T21:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@two_natural Constellation created in conjunction with a spinoff. They still own like 60%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1787229533063835784)  2024-05-05T21:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Interesting counterfactual. Lego Group leaders had thought that delivering great products for kids would mean profits follow But that ethos also left them with no granular way to monitor product financials"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1787857777098154411)  2024-05-07T14:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"It looks a little bit more like the 70s to me. I point out to a lot of people things look pretty rosy in [----] they were not rosy in [----] so dont get lulled into a false sense of security. - Jamie Dimon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1789358550562861294)  2024-05-11T18:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"From WSJ: Temu expects US sales to drop from 60% of revenues to less than a third This implies very low user retention. It also seems likely they lose money on most customers as the contribution margin cannot rationalize the CAC of a buyer who buys only once"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1790022351385411986)  2024-05-13T14:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DynamicMoats Point being revenue mix doesnt change that quickly unless you have high natural churn in the model The ad spend highly influenced the revenue mix because users arent sticky"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1790034435456348198)  2024-05-13T15:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"🎙 *New Synopsis Podcast Dropped* We cover: 🔹What is a SuperApp 🔹History on Tencents WeChat 🔹What Meituan and Grab get right 🔹Twitters/ X SuperApp ambitions 🔹Physical World SuperApps Sears Ecommerce Grocery Links in next Tweet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1790741481487229038)  2024-05-15T13:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"🎧 Spotify: 🎧 Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-synopsis/id1699073398i=1000655654924 https://open.spotify.com/episode/2RYc7w1bmZ9Q09J6ljrdOAsi=vvjkGrpzT1m63uj2ca2F6w https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-synopsis/id1699073398i=1000655654924 https://open.spotify.com/episode/2RYc7w1bmZ9Q09J6ljrdOAsi=vvjkGrpzT1m63uj2ca2F6w"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1790741487631929653)  2024-05-15T13:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"🎙 *New Synopsis Podcast Released* On this episode we give an update on Floor & Decor and Copart: 🔸Explaining $FND lagging same store sales 🔸How $CPRT grows revenues through vehicle price decreases 🔸Risks concerns and more for both companies (Links below)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1793650988911358418)  2024-05-23T14:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"🎧 Spotify: 🎧 Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-synopsis/id1699073398i=1000656493365 https://open.spotify.com/episode/2FZjhKoy5KJRcl2KSnMBUSsi=VNkiwCYlSLq3vBKuc_GD4Q https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-synopsis/id1699073398i=1000656493365 https://open.spotify.com/episode/2FZjhKoy5KJRcl2KSnMBUSsi=VNkiwCYlSLq3vBKuc_GD4Q"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1793650992770146759)  2024-05-23T14:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Here Munger asks why some markets with 5-6 competitors like cereal have good industry profitability while others like airlines are horrendous. He says he doesnt fully understand it but lists brand as a factor. What other factors are there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1795463004382970149)  2024-05-28T14:31Z 10.9K followers, 43K engagements


"@wideclops Its from his [----] speech at USC Reprinted Poor Charlies Almanack"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1795470287259242778)  2024-05-28T15:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Charlie Munger notes you must discriminate between technology that will help you or kill you. A new loom that did 2x as much work was invented when they were in the textile business. Warren said "Gee I hope this doesn't work because if it does I'm going to close the mill"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1795903233669407198)  2024-05-29T19:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"*New Synopsis Podcast released* We had a great talk with Best Anchor Stocks Leandro (@Invesquotes ) on: 🔸 Valuing great companies like $CPRT & $CSU 🔸Nintendo Deere & transitioning businesses models 🔸Hermes Ferrari & durability of Luxury 🔸More (Links below)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1796178159714394179)  2024-05-30T13:53Z [----] followers, 26.5K engagements


"Charlie Munger: common stocks generally have generated returns of [--] to [--] percent after inflation for many years and that those returns can't continue for a very long period. And they can't. It's simply impossible. What are the factors of stock market growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1796926583900717216)  2024-06-01T15:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@ReustleMatt Could also be the stock market has a selectivity bias where companies by and large are only public when they are above average businesses so growth of public businesses outstrips growth of total businesses Not sure I believe that though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1797336423198236935)  2024-06-02T18:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ReustleMatt If youre asking how returns can be sustained at 10% over the long run stock market growth is likely to mirror economic growth If we are taking GDP growth and then the Buffett framework of profits as a % of GDP then it wouldnt matter if earnings are retained or paid out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1797442459498352830)  2024-06-03T01:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"You keep buying things that will pay for themselves in [--] years. And after [--] years somehow you've earned a return of only 4% annually. The cost reductions came through but the benefit didn't go to the guy who bought the equipment. Its a simple idea yet often forgotten"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1797691880836354241)  2024-06-03T18:08Z 10.9K followers, 13.6K engagements


"@OOInsight Could be But the head start some firms may get could lead to an advantage of a different sort even if/ when compute supply is widely available"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1797828289438077394)  2024-06-04T03:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Not many just buy GPUs though they are buying a solution Its the same sort of idea that you dont buy the drill but the hole Theres usually other elements when you buy a GPU that competition can compete on (Cuda developer platform etc) Idk much about this area so take anything I say with a grain of salt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1798079916313055743)  2024-06-04T19:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Many of you probably don't remember what happened after the South Sea Bubble. They banned publicly traded stock. But England continued to grow. It's a myth that once you got some capital market that it has to be as fast and efficient as a casino. It doesn't. -Charlie Munger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1798737919550898289)  2024-06-06T15:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Is there a higher risk now that where the search journey starts changes $AAPL $GOOG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1800564795743330781)  2024-06-11T16:24Z [----] followers, 15.7K engagements


"Mark Leonard on why move the AGM to virtual: You're much less likely to have a gathering of private equity guys who are trying to learn from any manager they can corner any of the secrets that Constellation has"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1803110783863378393)  2024-06-18T17:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The only companies that have created truly significant value from the dot-com era are Amazon and Google Pretty wild stat. Is that right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1804915491112366296)  2024-06-23T16:32Z 10.9K followers, 20.8K engagements


"546 IPOs raised $69 billion in [----] alone"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1804916997047960026)  2024-06-23T16:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"🚨*New $CSGP Extensive Research Report Released* What changes when one of the oldest industriesreal estategets swept up in the PC revolution 🧵 👇 (1/x)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1805618142447890725)  2024-06-25T15:04Z [----] followers, 20.6K engagements


"He started with a single city before moving to a second. It would take the better part of three decades before they had comprehensive national coverage. (6/x)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1805618168930648494)  2024-06-25T15:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Florance didnt do it alone though. CoStar has the largest real estate research force that today stands at 1600+ strong. They had a fleet of vehicles to survey buildings and map out cities years before Google Maps. (7/x)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1805618171044614349)  2024-06-25T15:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Is their attempt to upend the residential market misplaced and bound to end in one of the largest failed advertising campaigns (15/x)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1805618186852909079)  2024-06-25T15:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"All of this and much more is covered in our [--] page 20K+ word report Subscribe below to receive it and our other [--] reports on $CSU $RH $FND $META $CPRT $CPNG and more https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/ https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1805618188274876547)  2024-06-25T15:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Speedwells doing an exploratory report on Porsche next. Curious on peoples opinions: Is a Porsche a luxury or premium car Luxury Premium In between both Luxury Premium In between both"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1805982132420141515)  2024-06-26T15:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Dont let this bias your thinking but here is how Porsche describes themselves:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1806006895326777655)  2024-06-26T16:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@QuietProsperity @Invesquotes @SleepwellCap curious what you think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1806048179256967213)  2024-06-26T19:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@isvy @SleepwellCap @QuietProsperity @Invesquotes Thats an interesting distinction but not all Rolexs are worth more in secondary. Also new Ferraris will lose value once they are a few years old so not sure that is a necessary condition to be considered luxury"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1806058386527752470)  2024-06-26T20:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"From Porsche's finanancials (IFRS) What is the rationale on why changes in inventory are recorded on the P&L and included in revenue Couldn't you manage revenue by increasing WIP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1808154959097352371)  2024-07-02T15:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This is different then the familiar (GAAP) treatment of capitalizing an expense and recording it as a debit to inventory (WIP) with a credit to cash/ AP (then debiting COGS at sale and crediting inventory). The sales is recording when inventory is actually reduced"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1808154960754102504)  2024-07-02T15:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I get that its not the full swing and probably not material but the theory doesnt make sense to me You capitalize expenses to write them as assets instead of expensing them In this case they are not only increasing assets but also including the asset increase in earnings (seems like two debits on the B/S to me)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1808222385226895627)  2024-07-02T19:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Because why shouldnt Porsche own a consulting company that advises pasta factories People forget that designing and manufacturing sports cars is essentially the same as dry pasta (Yes this is real)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1808539028897345577)  2024-07-03T16:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@HrtmnMax That was is the 1930s and 40s though are their consulting companies really a vestige of that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1808553428756672588)  2024-07-03T17:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"*New Synopsis Podcast Dropped* This week we cover: 🔸Constellation Software AGM Highlights 🔸Mark Leonoards take-away from Charlie Munger 🔸Limits of the CSU model 🔸RH Update post 25% stock price drop"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1810668965292814776)  2024-07-09T13:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"A single Nvidia GPU consumes the same energy as a typical U.S. home Pretty wild stat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1812933778110882165)  2024-07-15T19:34Z [----] followers, 139K engagements


"*New Synopsis Podcast * Can a great business have keyman risk Or does that mean the business isnt great Is Moodys a great company or just in a good industry Is Nintendo a great business or great asset All covered in this episode on identifying great businesses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1814014224940830851)  2024-07-18T19:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Its a car company. One that traverses the debatable line between Luxury and Premium. A positioned that means they are the highest-margin scaled manufacture. (2/x)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1815747798677283102)  2024-07-23T13:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"For each $1 of average inventory they hold they generate $1.3 compared to Mercedes-Benz at $0.70 (3/x)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1815747806872887719)  2024-07-23T13:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Earning growth assumptions dont need to be Herculean either A few points of unit growth ASP increases and mix shift towards more expensive models (the Turbos and S) could support earnings for years. (5/x)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1815747823033622794)  2024-07-23T13:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The two simple questions are: (1) Does anyone think fewer people will want Porsches a decade from now (2) Is there going to be less rich people in a decade But (6/x)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1815747826158383363)  2024-07-23T13:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"a complicated corporate structure protectionist manufacturing policies and brand dilution could weigh on demand. We cover all of this and more in our Exploratory Report on Porsche Check it out at: 🔸SpeedwellMemos(dot)com🔸"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1815747833859019157)  2024-07-23T13:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Interesting that Porsches gross margins basically reflect where consumers generally place them vs other car brands Below Ferrari and above Mercedes-Benz (but closer to Mercedes) Their Gross Margins showing pricing power are second only to Ferrari (4/x) https://t.co/TIZ5kBdf9Q Their Gross Margins showing pricing power are second only to Ferrari (4/x) https://t.co/TIZ5kBdf9Q"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1816134649665454354)  2024-07-24T15:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"*New Company podcast episode released* In our latest episode of The Synopsis we cover Porsche AG Is Porsche cracking the formula to luxury at scale Or are they just diluting their brand We cover that their history the industry & much more Links 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Speedwell_LLC/status/1818683439971025315)  2024-07-31T16:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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