#  @ShaneOliverAMP Shane Oliver Shane Oliver posts on X about $us, inflation, futures, bitcoin the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::335728282/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] -57% - [--] Month [-------] +51% - [--] Months [-------] -12% - [--] Year [---------] -43% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::335728282/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] -16% - [--] Month [---] +16% - [--] Months [---] +6.80% - [--] Year [---] -23% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::335728282/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +0.04% - [--] Month [------] +0.38% - [--] Months [------] +2.10% - [--] Year [------] +5.30% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::335728282/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [stocks](/list/stocks) [countries](/list/countries) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) #6226 [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [us election](/list/us-election) [currencies](/list/currencies) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [$us](/topic/$us) #10, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #792, [futures](/topic/futures), [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin), [nasdaq](/topic/nasdaq) #686, [bloomberg](/topic/bloomberg), [china](/topic/china), [fed](/topic/fed), [goldman sachs](/topic/goldman-sachs), [rates](/topic/rates) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@timb26119851](/creator/undefined) [@dianamousina](/creator/undefined) [@anilkirann](/creator/undefined) [@thathanslee](/creator/undefined) [@cblish22](/creator/undefined) [@eleanorcreagh](/creator/undefined) [@piepaulie](/creator/undefined) [@thebatman1961](/creator/undefined) [@jasonbryce](/creator/undefined) [@qarocks](/creator/undefined) [@bloomberg](/creator/undefined) [@peterswitzer](/creator/undefined) [@youtube](/creator/undefined) [@dazztweets](/creator/undefined) [@avidcommentator](/creator/undefined) [@cannonball](/creator/undefined) [@danielh16577898](/creator/undefined) [@jensterq](/creator/undefined) [@centaurrita](/creator/undefined) [@rbainfo](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs) [Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB)](/topic/$db) [April (APRIL)](/topic/april) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 62%=final 61%Nov avg [--] Mel 68%=final 65%Nov avg [--] Clearances rose in Mel but fell in Syd but with both down in November - looks partly seasonal but with the less favourable RBA rate outlook & rising listings also impacting. #ausecon" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1994750966407823795) 2025-11-29T12:51Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "NZ Sept qtr GDP +1.1%qoq/+1.3%yoy. This was a bit stronger than expected. Investment rose a strong 3.6%qoq and net exports added 0.45%pts but consumer spending rose just 0.1%qoq. Given the monetary easing expect further recovery going forward albeit at a slower rate" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2001467770584912376) 2025-12-18T01:41Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements "Eurozone shares -1.7% US futures -0.9% on Trump threat to impose tariffs on Europe unless Greenland is sold to US & possible retaliation US [--] yr yld 4.22% Oil +0.1% to $59.4 Gold +1.7% to $4671(new hi) Iron ore -0.5% to $106 Bitcoin $93.1k ASX futures -0.34% $A [-----] w $US -0.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2013357786390729011) 2026-01-19T21:07Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.6% US shares -2.1% in react to Trumps tariffs on Eur surge in Japan ylds on pre-election tax cut US [--] yr yld +7bp to 4.29% Oil +0.1% to $59.46 Gold +2% to $4763 Iron ore -0.3% to $105.7 Bitcoin $89.4k.down with shares ASX futures -0.6% $A [------] w $US -0.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2013733883821596801) 2026-01-20T22:02Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.2% US shares +1.2% as Trump claims framework deal for Greenland ruled out use of forceTACO US [--] yr yld -4bp to 4.25% Oil +2.1% to $60.7 Gold +1.3% to $4825.4 (investors wary & bit of FOMO too) Iron ore -0.3% to $105.3 ASX futures +0.5% $A [-----] w $US flat" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2014087702896058880) 2026-01-21T21:28Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Aust Dec emp +65k full time +55k participation flat unemp fell to 4.1% underemp fell to 5.7%stronger than exp after weak mths. Likely just volatility over yr end/new yr (school leavers annual leave etc) but makes a Feb rate hike more likely if trimmed mean infl 0.8%qoq" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2014146702245306782) 2026-01-22T01:22Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +1.25% US shares +0.6% Nas +0.9% US [--] yr yld +1bp to 4.25% Oil -2.1% to $59.4 Gold +2% to $4920silver +3.4%.to record highs as demand for a hedge against geopolitical risk remains Iron ore +0.3% to $105.7 Bitcoin $89.5k ASX futures -0.1% $A [-----] w $US -0.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2014451807901384929) 2026-01-22T21:35Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Weekly economic and market update - shares down on "Iceland"/up on TACO; new new record highs for gold; $A on the up helped by Trump; Aust Dec qtr inflation to ease a bit; happy songs Weekly Market Update - 23-01-2026 - AMP https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-23-01-2026 https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-23-01-2026" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2014618178366931420) 2026-01-23T08:36Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.2% (-1.1% wk) US shares +0.03%(-0.4% wk)Nas +0.3% US [--] yr yld -1bp to 4.23% Oil +3.1% to $61.3risk of US strike on Iran w US armada heading to MidEast Gold +1% to $4987.5ditto Iron ore +0.1% to $105.8 Bitcoin $89.5k ASX futures +0.1% $A [------] w $US -0.9%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2014822624795492427) 2026-01-23T22:08Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "With $US in retreat on the back of Trumps erratic announcements (now threatening 100% tariff on Can w a high risk of another shutdown following ICE in Minneapolis) & the RBA expected to hike by the mkts when the Fed cuts the $A is at its highest since Jan [----]. Bloomberg chart" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2015534877458985380) 2026-01-25T21:18Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.2% US shares +0.5% Nasdaq +0.6% US [--] yr yld -2bp to 4.21% Oil -0.8% to $60.8 Gold +0.8% to $5028 silver +2%.as hedge demand for geopolitical risk Fed concerns continue Iron ore -0.1% to $105.7 Bitcoin $87.8k ASX futures +0.4% $A [------] with $US index -0.4%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2015899891281826204) 2026-01-26T21:29Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.6% US shares +0.4% Nas +0.9% US [--] yr yld+3bp to 4.24% Oil +2.8% to $62.5 on fears of US Iran strike Gold +3.1% to $5182.4 silver +8% Iron ore +0.05% to $105.65 Bitcoin $88.9k ASX futures +0.4% $A [------] highest in two years as $US -1% on talk of intervention" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2016271501255966809) 2026-01-27T22:06Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "US Conference Board consumer confidence index down sharply in January as perceptions of the labour market deteriorated further. Annual home price growth edged up to 0.5%mom/1.4%yoy. (UBS JP Morgan and Bloomberg charts)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2016282225147576578) 2026-01-27T22:48Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "while we now expect an RBA hike next wk we think its likely to be one & done - with RBA then cautious as biz survey measures of final price pressures are not spiking consumer confidence & spending will likely take a hit and the rising $A may take pressure off inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2016354249278710023) 2026-01-28T03:34Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Two ways gov can help get Aust inflation down 1/slow grth in administered prices (utilitiescouncil rates etc) as they are running 6%yoy 2/cut public spending (now a record 28% of GDP) back to more normal levels (22.5% avg in 1990-2019) to make room for private sector spending" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2016625393772745145) 2026-01-28T21:32Z 35.9K followers, 16K engagements "Eurozone shares -1% US shares flat Nasdaq +0.2% US [--] yr yld flat at 4.24% Oil +1.1% to $63.2 Gold +5% to $5442 Iron ore -0.1% to $105.5 Bitcoin $89.3k ASX futures -0.1% $A [------] w $US +0.4% as Bessent supported a strong dollar said not intervened to support Yen" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2016649827006972095) 2026-01-28T23:09Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.7% US shares -0.1% (up from -1.5% earlier on a tech plunge) Nasdaq -0.7% US [--] yr yld -1bp to 4.23% Oil +3.4% to $65.3 with rising risk of US Iran strike Gold -0.8% to $5399.1 Iron ore +0.05% to $105.6 Bitcoin $84.2k ASX futures +0.4% $A [------] with $US -0.1%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2016985329081995281) 2026-01-29T21:22Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Weekly market update - another wobbly week on Trump news; rising Iran risk; high Aust inflation; Gov should cut spending to ease inflation; rising $A is defacto monetary tightening Weekly market update - 30-01-2026 - AMP https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-30-01-2026 https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-30-01-2026" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2017179807130476710) 2026-01-30T10:15Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "US Dec producer price inflation rose more than exp with core +0.7%mom/3.3%yoy. The components that flow through to core PCE inflation along with CPI data suggest Dec core PCE will rise 0.35%mom or 2.9-3%yoy which is a bit less first expected. Neutral for Fed (Bloomberg chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2017336106753446310) 2026-01-30T20:36Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.9%(+0.2% wk) US shares -0.4%up from -1.1% on Warsh nomination(+0.3% wk) US [--] yr yld +1bp to 4.24% Oil -0.3% to $65.2 Gold -9% to $4894silver -26%.both correcting from overbought Iron ore -2.3% to $103 Bitcoin $83.9k ASX futures -0.7% $A [-----] w $US +0.9%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2017376204735844856) 2026-01-30T23:15Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Cotality data showed home prices +0.8%mom in Jan after Syd and Melb rose slightly after seasonal weakness in Dec. But both are weak and overall momentum has slowed. The housing shortage remains but rate hike talk and poor affordability will likely see some slowing this year" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2018109637313400925) 2026-02-01T23:50Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Aust ANZ-Indeed job ads +4.4%mom in Jan which is a positive sign although it can be volatile over Dec/Jan" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2018144088848224408) 2026-02-02T02:07Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Aust Melbourne Institute trimmed mean inflation flat in Jan and running just above 2%yoy. The annual measures has tended to undershoot the ABS trimmed mean but monthly increases also seem to have trended down a bit since July last year" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2018144972420379117) 2026-02-02T02:10Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone GDP growth up 0.3%qoq/1.3%yoy in the Dec qtr and has been improving a bit particularly if volatile Ireland is excluded. Unemployment fell to 6.2% in December. (Macquarie Macro Strategy charts)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2018145891841180104) 2026-02-02T02:14Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "RBA +0.25% to 3.85% as widely expected. (We had thought it was 50/50 but were wrong in our assessment RBA would hold) RBA noted material pick up in inflation in second half [----] & noted stronger than expected private demand capacity pressure & labour mkt being a little tight" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2018533086544441494) 2026-02-03T03:52Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone CPI inflation fell to 1.7%yoy in January with core falling to 2.2%yoy. As its around target its consistent with the ECB remaining on hold" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2019193579755950435) 2026-02-04T23:37Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "The RBAs forecasts for slowing then falling dwelling investment to [----] imply it does not see the Housing Accord target for 240k homes a year being met - as it would require a rise in dwelling investment growth (unless there are a lot of tiny homes in the mix) (RBA SOMP p56)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2019195676941541381) 2026-02-04T23:45Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Australias goods trade surplus +$0.8bn to $3.4bn in Dec with exports +1%mom & imports -0.8%mom. Net exports look to have detracted 0.3%pts from Dec qtr GDP grth. The share of exports going to US has trended up a bit but distorted by front running of feared tariffs eg gold" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2019238997697130665) 2026-02-05T02:37Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Mixed US job reports Job openings down in Dec hiring rate still lo & Challenger job cuts spiked in Jan But quits rate up from lowlayoffs rate remained low & while jobless claims rose they remain lo Messy picture for Fed keeping further rate cuts alive (EvercoreISI ISI charts)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2019524562099286450) 2026-02-05T21:32Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% but shifted dovish with forecasts for higher unemp and lower inflation and a 5/4 vote to hold. Likely to cut again by April ECB held and looks neutral wiht geo risk but Ger stimulus altho money mkt still sees a 25% chance of another cut" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2019526983567438070) 2026-02-05T21:42Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Chinese property prices continued to fall in January. (Goldman Sachs charts)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2022186604337701026) 2026-02-13T05:50Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "The -ve real wage gap in the US from the pandemic is largely closed - unlike in Aust. This has been made possible by strong productivity grth (2%pa) in contrast to Aust. Strong productivity grth allows solid wages grth but keeps growth in unit labour costs & hence inflation down" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2022467485581348959) 2026-02-14T00:26Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Aust CoreLogic August capital city home prices -0.5% led by Melb & Syd with other cities flattish/up. Melb being impacted by Stage [--] lockdown JobKeeper & bank payment holidays protecting the mkt but expect further falls into next yr given high unemp & hit to immigration/demand" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1300602411350855680) 2020-09-01T01:12Z 35.9K followers, [--] engagements "With mortgage rates likely having bottomed the capacity to pay for a home for a borrower on average earnings has likely peaked well below its 2021-22 peak but home prices are 15-20% higher" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2018110807687709033) 2026-02-01T23:54Z 35.9K followers, 15.1K engagements "Eurozone shares +1% US shares +0.5% Nasdaq +0.6% US [--] yr yld +5bp to 4.28% Oil -4.6% to $62.2 with US/Iran talks Gold -4.6% to $4667 Iron ore -0.6% to $102.6 Bitcoin $78.8k ASX futures +1.1% $A [------] with $US index +0.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2018435695669637384) 2026-02-02T21:25Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Aust home building approvals -15%mom driven by -32% in volatile unit approvals. The trend is up (consistent with new home sales) and is running around 200k a yr pointing to some pick up in completions. But its still well below the Housing Accord target for 240k homes a year" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2018506394950160586) 2026-02-03T02:06Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "RBA revised up its near term growth & infl forecasts & unemp revised down. Now seeing inflation higher longer despite a higher $A & cash rate assumption suggesting its effectively endorsing mkt exps for more hikes. That said it was similar but with rate cuts back in Aug" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2018542881263550964) 2026-02-03T04:31Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.2% US shares -0.8% Nasdaq -1.4% with geo tensions as US shoots down Iran drone heading toward aircraft carrier US [--] yr yld -1bp to 4.27% Oil +2.8% to $63.9 Gold +5.8% to $4939.1 Iron ore +0.2% to $102.85 Bitcoin $76.2k ASX futures -0.2% $A [------] w $US -0.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2018806478891839938) 2026-02-03T21:59Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.4% US shares -0.5% Nas -1.5% as software stocks under pressure on fears re the impact of AI on software demand US [--] yr yld +1bp tp 4.28% Oil +0.7% to $64.4 Gold +0.2% to $4950.1 Iron ore -1.5% to $101.35 Bitcoin $73.2k ASX futures -0.4% $A [------] w $US +0.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2019157378873348210) 2026-02-04T21:13Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements "Fed Gov spending is projected to grow 8.2% in 2025-26 after [--] & 8% grth in last [--] fin yrs (MYEFO). So Fed spending grth is contributing to demand grth & is settling at a high % of GDP. To ease capacity constraints & pressure on int rates it needs to be cut to more normal levels" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2019255155800387609) 2026-02-05T03:41Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.8% US shares -1.2% Nas -1.6%.concerns re tech valuations impact of AI on other tech & soft jobs data US [--] yr yld -8bp to 4.19% Oil -1.8% to $63 Gold -2.5% to $4825 Iron ore -0.7% to $100.6 Bitcoin $64.4k.down w shares ASX futures -1.1% $A [-----] w $US +0.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2019519927607259325) 2026-02-05T21:14Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.9% (+0.9% wk) US shares +2% (-0.1% wk) Nasdaq +2.2%as dip buying kicked in US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.21% Oil +0.4% to $65.3 Gold +3.9% to $4964 Iron ore -1.2% to $99.6 Bitcoin +11% to $70.6k.up with shares ASX futures +1.2% $A [-----] with $US index -0.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2019900013296640315) 2026-02-06T22:24Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Aust Dec household spending -0.4%m after events & discounting boosted Oct & Nov Dec qtr was +0.9%qoq in real terms Clothing furnishings culture & hotels saw falls after event & sales boosts in Oct & Nov Suggests strong Q4 consumption but rate hikes may slow it ahead" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2020682893400686712) 2026-02-09T02:15Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +1% US shares +0.5% Nasdaq +0.9% US [--] yr yld -0.4bp to 4.2% Oil +1.4% to $64.4 Gold +1.2% to $5057.8 Iron ore +1.4% to $101.05 Bitcoin $70.5k ASX futures +0.4% $A [------] with $US index -0.6%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2020990133533802527) 2026-02-09T22:36Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "US retail sales flat in Dec ex auto & gas also flat with cold weather but cons spending likely rose at a solid 2.7% pace in Dec qtr Small biz optimism little changed at [----] Dec qtr ECI softer than exp at +0.7%qoq.34%yoy with quits pointing to further slowing EvercoreISI charts" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2021325328233398544) 2026-02-10T20:48Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.2% US shares -0.3% Nasdaq -0.6% US [--] yr yld -6bp to 4.14% with softer economic data Oil -0.3% to $64.2 Gold -0.6% to $5027.4 Iron ore -0.4% to $100.6 Bitcoin $68.8k ASX futures +0.3% $A [------] with $US index flat" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2021335219765379443) 2026-02-10T21:27Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements "Aust Dec qtr housing finance +9.5%qoq with owner occupiers +10.6%q & investors +7.9%q reflecting the strength in home prices. New home loan sizes continue to rise with home prices. The investor share of total finance is continuing to trend up with the FHB share trending down" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2021391911899234352) 2026-02-11T01:12Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "China Jan CPI inflation dropped more than exp to 0.2%y from 0.8%y.partly due to timing mismatch for China NY (Jan last yr Feb this yr). Core infl also fell to 0.8%y from 1.2%y Producer price deflation eased to -1.4%yoy from -1.9%yoy lowflation & deflation remains an issue" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2021449492789330303) 2026-02-11T05:01Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.2% US shares flatNas -0.2% US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.17%as stronger than exp jobs saw Fed rate cut expectations pared Oil +0.7% to $64.6.ongoing Iran tensions Gold +1.1% to $5084.4 Iron ore +0.2% to $100.8 Bitcoin $67.5k ASX futures -0.02% $A [------] w $US flat" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2021717987582177578) 2026-02-11T22:48Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements "Aust Westpac/MI consumer confidence -2.6pts to a weak [----] with all the rise from last yrs rate cut now reversed. The ANZ/Roy Morgan confidence index is weaker. Most components weakened. Confidence fell for all housing groups but is weakest for mortgage holders & renters" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2021053374658167270) 2026-02-10T02:47Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.4% US shares -1.6% Nasdaq -2% with ongoing concerns about AI disruption capex and valuations US [--] yr yld -9bp to 4.09%safe haven demand Oil -2.7% to $62.9 Gold -3.3% to $4917 Iron ore -0.7% to $100.1 Bitcoin $65.6k ASX futures -0.9% $A [------] w $US +0.1%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2022060009069461665) 2026-02-12T21:27Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "US Jan existing home sales -8.4%momremaining weak Initial jobless claims -5kstill low despite impacts from bad weather Continuing jobless claims +21k (Bloomberg and EvercoreISI charts)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2022063048346022396) 2026-02-12T21:39Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements "US Jan CPI was benign v fears: +0.2%m/2.4%y core +0.3%m/2.5%y (from 2.6%y) Core goods ex transport +0.46%m likely reflecting tariffs but offset elsewhere Suggests Jan core PCE +0.3%m/3%y Supportive for rate cuts from mid yr assuming tariff impact peaks (Bloomberg & ISI charts)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2022410131749900467) 2026-02-13T20:38Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.5% (-0.3% wk) US shares +0.05% (-1.4% wk) Nasdaq -0.2% Mag [--] -1.1% US [--] yr yld -5bp to 5.05% Oil -0.2% to $62.7 Gold +2.2% to $5033.4 Iron ore -0.5% to $99.15 Bitcoin $68.9k ASX futures +0.6% $A [------] with $US index -0.1% (Bloomberg chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2022430115012186183) 2026-02-13T21:58Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements "The tariff pass through effect on US inflation may be at or close to peakingpotentially allowing Fed rate cuts from around mid year if core PCE inflation starts falling back to target and the labour market is not overheating" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2022466572225499397) 2026-02-14T00:23Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 70%=final 68%Feb avg [--] Mel 68%=final 65%Feb avg [--] Clearances down in Sydney but up in Melbourne. Both around average for Feb. Listings down a bit on a year ago but rate hikes & expectations for more to come will be a dampener. #ausecon" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2022575776877748527) 2026-02-14T07:36Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "US Congress agrees $900bn (4% of GDP) stimulus Includes: direct $600 payments to most $300/week enhanced unemp benefits thru Mar $284bn for Paycheck Protection Program. Will be part of bill funding gov thru to Sept Should be largely factored into share mkt" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1340878699420237824) 2020-12-21T04:36Z 35.8K followers, [--] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.2% US shares -0.2% Nas -0.1% w benign CPI still likely to see Fed hold in Jan & JP Morgan miss US [--] yr yld flat at 4.18% Oil +2.7% to $61.1 w US Iran threats Gold -0.2% to $4586.5 Iron ore +0.5% to $108.5 Bitcoin $94.2k ASX futures -0.1% $A [-----] w $US +0.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2011200692107821326) 2026-01-13T22:16Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.4% US shares -0.5% Nas -1% as Mag [--] -1.5% and rotation to cyclicals and small caps continues US [--] yr yld -4bp to 4.14% Oil -1.6% to $60.1 Gold +0.9% to $4626 new record hi Iron ore -1% to $107.5 Bitcoin $97.5k ASX futures +0.3% $A [-----] with $US index flat" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2011551220138463259) 2026-01-14T21:29Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.6% US shares +0.2% Nasdaq +0.3% US [--] yr yld +4bp to 4.17% Oil -1.9% to $59 Gold -0.3% to $4610.9 Iron ore -0.2% to $107.2 Bitcoin $95.3k ASX futures -0.1% $A [------] with $US index flat" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2011910472329806325) 2026-01-15T21:16Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "China [----] GDP came in at target at +5% but slowed to 4.5%yoy in Dec qtr (= mkt). Dec data shows IP growth up slightly but retail sales & investment weakening further with property inv sales & prices remaining a drag. Expect more incremental stimulus measures (Bloomberg chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2013084737750122862) 2026-01-19T03:02Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "Japanese inflation fell sharply in December to 2.1%yoy due to a fall in vegetable prices. Core (ex food and energy) inflation fell back to 1.5%yoy from 1.6%yoy. Expect the BoJ to remain on hold for a few months having just hiked in December. (Goldman Sachs chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2014508643761479911) 2026-01-23T01:21Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "GreenlandCanadaKorea.all these tariff announcements are bad for inv & jobs add to the chance SCOTUS will rule against use of emergency power this way likely to be taken less & less seriously (w a low TACO hurdle w midterms)& are becoming a comedy https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/26/economy/tariffs-trump-south-korea https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/26/economy/tariffs-trump-south-korea" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2015986042730672430) 2026-01-27T03:11Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "Aust Dec inflation +3.8%y with Dec qtr trimmed mean +0.9%q/3.4%y (up from 3%y). This was above mkt & RBA forecasts for trimmed mean at 3.2%y. Services infl edged up & the breadth of price rises 3%y rose. On the back of hawkish RBA commentary its now likely to hike next week" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2016352159726764308) 2026-01-28T03:26Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "the big contributors to inflation were electricity and holiday travel. Administered price inflation remained around 6%yoy but with mkt services inflation also picked up. Rent and dwelling purchase costs slowed in the month but remain elevated" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2016353216263508137) 2026-01-28T03:30Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% upgrading growth assessment from moderate to solid & noting signs of stabilisation in unemp. Likely to remain on hold for a while until new Chair. Mkt still sees [---] cuts by yr end. Dec dot plot has one cut this yr. Miran & Waller voted for a cut" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2016613276214608202) 2026-01-28T20:44Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "BoC also held rates as expected at 2.25% noting difficult to predict timing or direction of next move. Outlook little changed. Mkt sees risk of cut in near term then possible hike later this yr" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2016616365030011064) 2026-01-28T20:56Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "TACO TUNA or whateveranalysis from Bloomberg Economics shows that most of Trumps tariff threats are not imposed in full. (Chart from Bloomberg)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2016738456618344535) 2026-01-29T05:01Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "US initial jobless claims fell 1k and remained low with continuing claims -38k. Third quarter productivity was confirmed at 4.9% annualised leaving unit labour costs down 1.9% which is acting to help keep inflation down (EvercoreISI charts)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2016976431201604045) 2026-01-29T20:47Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "Aust credit growth picked up in Dec to 0.8%mom/7.7%yoy with stronger mthly grth in other personal business and housing (due to investors). Housing investor credit growth is now running above its [----] high and may prompt further APRA tightening if it doesnt slow Bloomberg table" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2017044295916933228) 2026-01-30T01:16Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "Aust producer price inflation slowed to 0.8%qoq in the December quarter but remained at 3.5%yoy. (Bloomberg chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2017044667024756957) 2026-01-30T01:18Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "Tokyo inflation fell to 1.5%yoy in Dec with core (ie ex food and energy) falling to 1.4%yoy. The BoJ still needs to be gradual (Goldman Sachs chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2017065148436083075) 2026-01-30T02:39Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "Aust Federal 2025-26 budget deficit up till Dec running worse than previous years as spending surges 15%yoy but looking like it might come in $5-10bn better than the $37bn forecast in MYEFO - thanks to ongoing upside revenue surprises" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2017116863076192722) 2026-01-30T06:05Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "Warsh nom as Fed Chair. Less dovish than Hassett hence shares down a bit $US +0.9% & sharp falls in gold & silver from v overbought. Warsh will still come in dovish tho but likely balanced long term. If Powell & Cook stay as govs Trump appointees will not have control of Board" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/2017378747616481723) 2026-01-30T23:25Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "European Q2 earnings not so good so far; running at 49% exp on profit but improving PMIs should lead to an improvement going forward" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/360551815621783552) 2013-07-26T00:07Z 35.8K followers, [--] engagements "#BoJ keeps current rate settings & QE at 80trn Yen but forward guidance to maintain current rates until after impact of Oct [----] consumption tax hike drops out. Widens range around JGB target to +/-0.2%. Overall dovish ultra easy for long haul. JGBs back down to 0.05% Yen down" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1024346733533265920) 2018-07-31T17:31Z 35.6K followers, [--] engagements "@anilkiran_n It would lower interest costs for those with a mortgage so yes it would help households. A lower $A would help overall economic growth (and in recent times it hasnt had much impact on inflation). Banks hedge most of their foreign borrowing back to $As" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1075143185569964032) 2018-12-18T21:38Z 35.8K followers, [--] engagements "@ThatHansLee @cblish22 @Eleanor_Creagh .most my spending is in $As & if you add in divs (which is important as Aust companies pay big share of TSR in divs) the high was surpassed in [----]. Can go in circles on this Huge gain in Aust shares into [----] v global shares underperformance this decade. Just mean reversion" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1155678557483360257) 2019-07-29T03:16Z 35.8K followers, [--] engagements "@piepaulie @TheBatman1961 Cars are part of consumer spending but you are right they are also imported so it offsets (apart from the value add in Aust from dealers etc). That said they are still a good guide to cyclical consumer spending" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1169226891993026560) 2019-09-04T12:33Z 35.6K followers, [--] engagements "Core Logic Aust dwelling prices Nov MTD: Syd +2.3% up 8% from low (recovered nearly 50% of 15%/20mth fall in 6mths) Melb +1.7% up 7.9% from low (recovered 62% of fall) Bris +0.7% Ade +0.4% Per +0.3% S & M remaining hot(helped by low but rising listings) pick up in other cities" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1199162007460569088) 2019-11-26T03:04Z 35.6K followers, [--] engagements "#BoJ removed 80trn pa yen limit on JGB purchase and substantially increased limits on corporate financing . Former is mainly symbolic (as current JGB purchases well below limit) but latter is more significant. GDP forecasts revised to -3to-5% for [----] and to +2.8-+3.9% for 2021" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1254725110017081345) 2020-04-27T10:52Z 35.6K followers, [--] engagements "Australia continues to see a very low death rate from #COVID19 likely reflecting some combination of a younger population less dense living better health care & a relatively well managed containment/lockdown" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1266211771146055680) 2020-05-29T03:36Z 35.5K followers, [--] engagements "Australias unemployment benefit payment compares poorly to that in other OECD countries. #ausecon" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1364386803248111616) 2021-02-24T01:28Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements "RBA hikes +0.5% to 1.35% as widely expected citing hi infl econ resilient the tight labour mkt and likely faster wages grth. Remains hawkish expecting to do more and will "do what is necessary" to return inflation to target. We see cash rate peaking 2.5% in first half next yr" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1544179627605692417) 2022-07-05T04:41Z 35.7K followers, [--] engagements "Australian household wealth fell 3.3% in the June qtr (or -$484bn) after [--] qtrs of strong growth as shares & bonds fell (hitting super) and property prices fell. With a lag this will start to act as a drag on consumer spending. (ABS chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1575310569145790464) 2022-09-29T02:24Z 35.7K followers, [--] engagements "@jasonbryce Of course there are But as at June the Aust household sector had $1456bn in deposits v $2829bn in debt. So a rate hike is clearly cash flow negative for the household sector. And spending for those with a big mortgage is likely far more net income sensitive" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1577206146309705728) 2022-10-04T07:57Z 35.7K followers, [--] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.4% US closed S&P futures +0.3% Ger [--] yr yld -8bp to 1.84% Oil +0.6% to $77.96 Gold +0.3% to $1755.2 Iron ore +0.4% to $92.9 ASX futures +0.2% $A [------] with $US index -0.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1595886144994299910) 2022-11-24T21:04Z 35.7K followers, [--] engagements "Aust March qtr export prices +1.6%qoq/6.9%yoy with fertiliser lithium and ore prices up despite fa;l; in coal and gas prices Import prices -4.2%qoq/+4.7%yoy with petrol prices -16.6%qoq & $A up Terms of trade up and remaining high which will boost nominal GDP (JP Morgan chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1651420340785139713) 2023-04-27T02:57Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.3% US shares +0.3% Nasdaq +0.4% with mostly good earnings news US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.14% Oil -0.9% to $74.5 Gold +0.4% to $2028.6 Iron ore +0.1% to $134.3 ASX futures +0.2% $A [------] with $US index +0.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1749908682882863471) 2024-01-23T21:35Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.3% US shares -0.3% Nasdaq -0.3% US [--] yr yld +5bp to 4.25% Oil +1.4% to $81.97 Gold +0.3% to $2171.8 Iron ore +0.1% to $110.5 ASX futures -0.4% $A [------] with $US index -0.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1772372708967215488) 2024-03-25T21:19Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.4% US shares -0.3% Nasdaq -0.4% US [--] yr yld -1bp to 4.23% Oil -0.4% to $81.6 Gold +0.3% to $2178.8 Iron ore -0.5% to $110 ASX futures -0.2% $A [------] with $US index flat" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1772743509113520433) 2024-03-26T21:52Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.9% (+1.1% wk)as Fr/Ger bond yld spread highest since [----] US shares -0.2% (+0.6% wk)with triple witching US [--] yr yld -0.4bp to 2.25% Oil -0.2% to $81.97 Gold -1.6% to $2321.98 Iron ore -0.7% to $106.4 ASX futures -0.2% $A [-----] with $US +0.2% Bloomberg chart" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1804296960570208534) 2024-06-21T23:34Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.9% US shares -0.3% Nas -1.1% with tech under pressure & Nvidia -13% from hi. Bitcoin back to $60k US [--] yr yld -2bp to 4.23% Oil -0.3% to $81.7 Gold +0.5% to $2333.8 Iron ore [-----] to $105.9 ASX futures +0.5% $A [------] with $US index -0.3% (Bloomberg charts)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1805367397651825086) 2024-06-24T22:28Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.3% US shares +0.4% Nasdaq +1.3% with Nvidia +7% US [--] yr yld +2bp to 4.25% Oil -1.1% to $80.8 Gold -0.6% to $2319.6 Iron ore +0.3% to $106.25 ASX futures -0.4% $A [------] with $US index +0.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1805715194821362109) 2024-06-25T21:30Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.4% with French CAC -0.7% US shares +0.2% Nasdaq +0.5% US [--] yr yld +8bp to 4.33% Oil +0.1% to $80.9 Gold -0.9% to [------] Iron ore +0.3% to $106.6 ASX futures -1.1% $A [------] with $US +0.4%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1806083284587393046) 2024-06-26T21:53Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.3% (with French CAC -1%) US shares +0.1% Nasdaq +0.3% with softer data supporting Fed rate cut expectations US [--] yr yld -4bp to 4.29% Oil +1% to $81.7 Gold +1.3% to $2327.5 Iron ore -0.2% to $106.4 ASX futures +0.3% $A [------] with $US index flat" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1806451821713703396) 2024-06-27T22:17Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "UK Aug inflation flat at 2.2%y with core rising to 3.6%y & services rising to 5.6%y which were in line with exps. The rise was mainly due to volatile airfares with underlying momentum in services infl slowing. BoE prob wont cut tomorrow but on track for Nov cut (Bloomberg charts)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1836350754459652399) 2024-09-18T10:25Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.8% US shares +0.6% as shares look past Trumps tariffs US [--] yr yld +2bp to 4.3% Oil -0.6% to $68.7 on Is/Hez cease fire Gold +0.2% to $2632 Bitcoin $91.7k with 8% fall from hi looking corrective ahead of further rise ASX futures +0.45% $A [-----] w $US +0.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1861527904221323738) 2024-11-26T21:50Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.7% with French shares -0.7% with budget impasse US shares -0.4% Nasdaq -0.6% US [--] yr yld -6bp to 4.25% Oil +0.1% to $68.8 Gold +0.2% to $2636.9 Bitcoin $96.5k Iron ore +0.3% to $102.5 ASX futures +0.25% $A [------] with $US index -0.7%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1861884900686659962) 2024-11-27T21:28Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Aust still in per capita recession with per capita GDP -0.3%qoq/-1.5%yoylowest since early 90s recession (ex covid) Per capita GDP has fallen in [--] of the last [--] quarters and is down -2.1% since its June qtr [----] high. (Its one indicator of falling living standards in Australia)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1864123988198477931) 2024-12-04T01:46Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "ECB cut -0.25% taking policy rate to 3% and moving more dovish by dropping its comment to keep policy sufficiently restrictive. Likely on the way to 1.5% Swiss National Bank cut -0.5% to just 0.5%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1867327932949311796) 2024-12-12T21:57Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "Mid Yr Econ & Fiscal Outlook saw Gov confirm a return to deficit this fin yr with bigger deficits driven mainly be policy easing incl $5.6bn in decisions taken but not yet announced for election promises Gov continuing to lock in public spending as higher % GDP than pre Covid" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1869254268479476100) 2024-12-18T05:32Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +2.4% US shares +0.6% (after earlier being +1.3%) Nasdaq +1.2% US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.63% Oil -0.8% to $73.4 Gold -0.1% to $2636.4 Bitcoin $101.7k Iron ore -0.7% to $98.1 ASX futures +0.15% $A [------] with $US index -0.6%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1876392288336925010) 2025-01-06T22:15Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.4% US shares closed. Futures -0.2% US [--] yr yld flat at 4.69% Oil +1.2% to $74.2 Gold +0.3% to $2670.8 Bitcoin $92.1k Iron ore +0.5% to $97.8 ASX futures +0.3% $A [------] with $US index +0.1%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1877477077953159440) 2025-01-09T22:06Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.8%(+1.6% wk) US shares -1.5% (-1.9% wk).strong jobs reducing Fed cut exps US [--] yr yld +7bp to 4.76% Oil +3.7% to $76.7 w more Ru sanctions Gold +0.9% to $2690 Bitcoin $94.7k Iron ore +1.3% to $99.1 ASX futures -0.9% $A [------] (lowest since Apr 2020)$US +0.4%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1877840774479626357) 2025-01-10T22:11Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.1% (+1.3% wk) US shares -0.5% (-1% wk) +0.8% but fell as Trump repeated [--] Feb tariffs on Can Mex & Ch US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.54% Oil +1.2% to $73.6 Gold +0.1% to $2798.4 Bitcoin $102.3k Iron ore flat at $101.6 ASX futures -1.2% $A [-----] w $US +0.7%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1885460756562669930) 2025-01-31T22:50Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "So far Chinas retaliation to US tariffs (10% on $20bn of US exports versus US 10% tariff on $430bn of Chinese imports) looks designed to leave room for negotiation. Long way to go on the tariff war though" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1886918326947074501) 2025-02-04T23:22Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Trumps 25% tariff on alum & steel: In [----] Aust alum & steel exports to US were $808m. Hopefully we get an exemption as we have trade deficit with US but maybe not = bad for Aust producers but at just 0.03% of GDP trivial macro impact. Real risk for Aust is reduced global trade" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1888791824762048516) 2025-02-10T03:27Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.3% US shares -0.3% after initially -1.1% with exp inflation US [--] yr yld +9bp to 4.62% w higher inflation Oil -2.7% to $71.2 w US/RU agreeing to Ukraine talks Gold +0.1% to $2902.4 Iron ore +1.2% to $107.7 Bitcoin $97.5k ASX futures +0.05% $A [-----] w $US flat" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1889789618498748846) 2025-02-12T21:32Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "US Jan CPI +0.5%m/3%y core +0.4%m/3.3%y Both a bit stronger than expected with higher energy & food but also used cars airfares & insurance Goods inflation easing up just as tariffs come Core PCE may be lower at 0.3%m But this will keep the Fed cautious and on hold" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1889792334122066312) 2025-02-12T21:42Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +1.7% US shares +1% Nas +1.5% as Trump moving to reciprocal tariffs but maybe not till post [--] Apr = room for negotiation US [--] yr yld -9bp to 4.53% Oil +0.3% to $71.4 Gold +0.4% to $2929 Iron ore -0.7% to $107 Bitcoin $96.4 ASX futures +1% $A [------] w $US -0.7%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1890147475622883624) 2025-02-13T21:14Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Weekly economic & market update - exploding straws; more tariffs; does the GST make Aust vulnerable; shares at record highs; Aust earnings results so far; RBA to cautiously cut; Valentine's Day Weekly-Market-Update-14-02-2025 - AMP https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-14-02-2025 https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-14-02-2025" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1890295969096601635) 2025-02-14T07:04Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Mixed US data Retail sales -0.9%mom with ex auto & gas -0.5%m much exp even with upward revisions possibly reflecting weather fires & pullback after strong mths IP +0.5%mom exp Import prices exp with components pointing to core PCE of +0.26%m/2.5%yoy EvercoreISI charts" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1890505382457667652) 2025-02-14T20:56Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.1% (+2.9% wk) US shares flat (+1.5% wk). Nasdaq +0.4% US [--] yr yld -5bp to 4.48% w weak Jan retail sales Oil -0.8% to $70.7 Gold -1.5% to $2883.7 Iron ore -0.2% to $106.8 Bitcoin $97.4k ASX futures -0.6% $A [------] with $US -0.5% (Bloomberg chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1890517931026682246) 2025-02-14T21:46Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Chinas population is continuing to fall. (Chart via The Daily Shot)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1890539478156210479) 2025-02-14T23:11Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 75%=final 72%Feb norm 67% Mel 70%=final 66%Feb norm 65% Clearances are continuing to get a boost from expectations for an imminent rate cut particularly in Sydney. So far the bounce has come on low volumes altho they are rising. #ausecon" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1890664057457549579) 2025-02-15T07:26Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.65% US shares closed futures +0.2% Ger [--] yr yld +6bp on expectations increased EU defence spending will boost gov borrowing Oil +0.9% to $71.4 Gold +0.4% to $2896.6 Iron ore -0.5% to $106.3 Gold $96k ASX futures +0.3% $A [-----] with $US index flat" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1891593893658968302) 2025-02-17T21:01Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "RBA cut to 4.1% as expected citing inflation easing a little faster than expected & more confidence its moving back to target But it was a cautious cut with upside risks to infl & a tight labour mkt We expect RBA to hold in Apr & cut again in May & Aug taking cash rate to 3.6%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1891697558621389213) 2025-02-18T03:53Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "RBA revised down slightly to 2.7% its trimmed mean inflation for this year and sees it staying at that level = hence its caution Now sees slightly lower unemp but still sees wages growth slowing to 3.1% next yr The cash rate is based on mkt pricing not an RBA forecast" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1891698833790570513) 2025-02-18T03:58Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.25% US shares +0.2% to new high Nasdaq +0.1% US [--] yr yld +7bp to 4.55% Oil +0.6% to $71.8 Gold +1.4% to $2935.3 Iron ore +0.8% to $107.1 Bitcoin $94.9k ASX futures -0.02% $A [------] with $US index +0.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1891973488472359335) 2025-02-18T22:10Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "US Feb Empire manufacturing index bounced back to 5.7but its very volatile month to month Feb NAHB home builder index fell to [--] with concerns about the impact of tariffs on costs (Bloomberg charts)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1891974257724547410) 2025-02-18T22:13Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "No surprises from the RBNZ which cut by 0.5% to 3.75% with dovish guidance. Expect a cut to 3% or lower this year. It basically overtightened and is now having to correct" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1892040768237249007) 2025-02-19T02:37Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -1.3% US shares +0.2% Nas +0.1%.w Fed mins showing Fed retains easing bias but in no hurry wanting more disinflation US [--] yr yld -2bp to 4.53% Oil +0.7% to $72.3 Gold +0.03% to $2936.3 Iron ore flat at $107.1 Bitcoin $96k ASX futures -0.5% $A [-----] w $US +0.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1892322351070491043) 2025-02-19T21:16Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Another strong Aust jobs report for Jan with employment +44k & record participation & share of population employed. Unemployment rose 0.1% to 4.1% but remains low. However with wages grth slowing this is not a threat to inflation & should not be a concern to the RBA" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1892381724849688708) 2025-02-20T01:12Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.1% US shares -0.4% Nasdaq -0.5% as Walmart expresses uncertainty about consumer spending US [--] yr yld -3bp to 4.5% Oil +0.4% to $72.6 Gold +0.05% to $2937.6 Iron ore +0.6% to $107.8 Bitcoin $98.4K ASX futures +0.2% $A [------] with $US -0.7%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1892684235938386212) 2025-02-20T21:14Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "There are too many tax brackets in US but this is what should be happening in Australiaie indexing tax brackets to inflation (preferably the 2.5% target). Would remove remove bracket creep and the lie of politicians giving tax cuts when they are just giving bracket creep back" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1892687507386728897) 2025-02-20T21:27Z 35.9K followers, 23.4K engagements "RBA Governor Bullock reiterated the Boards caution about prospects for further policy easing but will be guided by data and its assessment of risks" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1892709717702787288) 2025-02-20T22:55Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "China new property sales running [----] levels existing property sales running above [----] & [----] levels. Traffic congestion is running below normal. China steel demand is now running [----] levels altho this may be a catchup after weakness earlier this year. (Goldman Sachs charts)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1892859081989509514) 2025-02-21T08:49Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.3% (+0.3% wk) US shares -1.7% (-1.7% wk) w Trumps hit to consumer conf & PMIs & option expiries US [--] yr yld -8bp to 4.43% Oil -3.1% to $70.3 Gold -0.03% to $2937.9 Iron ore -0.05% to $107.6 Bitcoin $95.2k ASX futures -0.8% $A [-----] w $US +0.3% Bloomberg chart" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1893060447198454258) 2025-02-21T22:09Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "US Uni Mich consumer sentiment down on concerns re Trumps policies [--] yr inflation expectations unchanged at 4.3% But 5-10 yr infl expectations up to 3.5% - highest since 1995this will add to Fed concerns Trumps tariffs may de anchor low inflation expectations Bloomberg charts" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1893061669066285565) 2025-02-21T22:14Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "US Jan existing home sales -4.9%mom remaining low. (Bloomberg chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1893061979608359413) 2025-02-21T22:15Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "The G3 composite PMI fell further in Feb driven by a slump in the US as Trumps policies impact costs and policy uncertainty. New orders and employment fell - notably in the US. G3 input prices rose but output prices fell" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1893093803894124677) 2025-02-22T00:21Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 71%=final 68%Feb norm 67% Mel 67%=final 64%Feb norm 65% Down a bit from last wk but clearances got a boost from anticipation of the RBA rate cut particularly in Sydney. So far the bounce has come on low volumes but they r rising #ausecon" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1893256217965007307) 2025-02-22T11:07Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.4% US shares -0.5% after initially +0.5%with Nas -1.2% & Trump saying expects 25% tariffs on Can & Mex to go ahead US [--] yr yld -3bp to 4.4% Oil +0.7% to $70.8 Gold +0.5% to $2051.4 Iron ore +0.05% to $107.6 Bitcoin $94.3k ASX futures -0.8% $A [-----] w $US flat" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1894139009531515275) 2025-02-24T21:35Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.1% US shares -0.5% Nas -1.35%.consumer confidence down on tariffs US [--] yr yld -10bp to 4.3%mkt concerned about grth Oil -2.5% to $69 Gold -1.3% to $2924.2 Iron ore -0.3% to $ [-----] Bitcoin $88.3k down w shares ASX futures -0.3% $A [------] w $US -0.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1894505959705514255) 2025-02-25T21:53Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "More good news on inflation with the Jan CPI holding at 2.5%yoy. Electricity prices +8.9%mom but in the month this was offset by slower inflation elsewhere. Trimmed mean inflation rose to 2.8%yoy with the trend remaining down. RBA on track for a May rate cut (possibly April)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1894554896495776236) 2025-02-26T01:07Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Daily CoreLogic data for February shows home price gains continuing to slow in Brisbane Adelaide and Perth but hooking back up in Sydney and Melbourne. The rate cut has clearly provided a boost to buyer demand. Chart shows Feb growth at a monthly rate" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1894615807734493643) 2025-02-26T05:09Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements "Slashing fuel excise by 25c may be popular but its silly economic policy. Its only for [--] mths then up again & defeats the purpose of having fuel tax. Hopefully there is something more substantive in the Budget reply tonight eg indexing tax thresholds https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-ups-the-ante-on-tax-with-fuel-excise-cut-20250326-p5lmso https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-ups-the-ante-on-tax-with-fuel-excise-cut-20250326-p5lmso" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1905027448108191949) 2025-03-26T22:41Z 35.9K followers, 28.1K engagements "Aust March retail sales +0.3%mom/+4.3%yoy. Qld saw food & grocery sales boosted ahead of Cyclone Alfred but overall retail sales depressed. The rise was slightly less than expected and indicates that consumer spending remains subdued. (ABS charts)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1918127400866701464) 2025-05-02T02:16Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.4% with German shares -0.4% after Merz fails to win then wins Chancellor vote US shares -0.6% Nas -0.7% US [--] yr yld -5bp to 4.29% Oil +3.4% to $59.1 Gold +2.9% to $3431.4 Iron ore +2.3% to $99.4 Bitcoin $94.5k ASX futures -0.4% $A [------] with $US -0.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1919869833082241210) 2025-05-06T21:40Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.6% US shares +0.4% Nas +0.3% with Powell saying econ is still solid altho in no hurry to cut rates US [--] yr yld -2bp to 4.27% Oil -1.7% to $58.1 Gold -2% to $3363.5 Iron ore -0.4% to $99.05 Bitcoin $97.3k ASX futures +0.1% $A [------] with $US index +0.5%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1920238932018466920) 2025-05-07T22:06Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Aust retail sales -0.1%mom in Apr/+3.8%yoy. Mkt exp was +0.3%mom & this is surprisingly soft given the double Easter/Anzac long weekend & Queensland rebounding from Cyclone Alfred. Consumers are still struggling despite rate and tax cuts. This adds to the case for more RBA cuts" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1928274371099119776) 2025-05-30T02:16Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "US initial jobless claims flat continuing claims +54k adding to evidence the labour mkt is softening May producer price inflation weaker than expected with core +0.1%/3%yoy Good news for Fed but its likely to remain on hold for now ahead of Q3 cuts EvercoreISI & Bloomberg charts" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1933297696154308653) 2025-06-12T22:57Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements "Aust June household spending +0.5%mom/4.8%yoy continuing a modest acceleration. The mthly rise was helped by EOFY sales in furnishings hhold equipment & clothing. June qtr volumes +0.7%qoq but with much of that coming from Qld post Cyclone Alfred. Suggests stronger Q2 GDP grth" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1952668487253668337) 2025-08-05T09:50Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Aust to axe another [---] nuisance tariffs eg on tyres & TVs. These are usually 2% & dont raise much tax but removing them will save $157m in biz compliance. Dont expect a big drop in prices but great to see Australia going in a sensible direction on trade in contrast to the US" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1960911752863899893) 2025-08-28T03:46Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.5% US shares +0.8% Nasdaq +0.7% as elevated but mostly in line core CPI reinforces expectations for Fed rate cuts US [--] yr yld -2bp to 4.02% Oil -1.2% to $62.4 Gold -0.2% to $3634 Iron ore -1% to $105.3 Bitcoin $114.3k ASX futures +0.5% $A [-----] with $US -0.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1966244817127747992) 2025-09-11T20:57Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Aust population grth slowed to 0.5%q/1.6%y in the Mar qtr. This is down from a peak of 2.5%y in the Sept qtr [----]. Net migration has slowed from a record peak of 556k over the yr to Sept qtr [----] to 341k but is still relatively hi. Pop grth is strongest in WA at 2.3%y v Tas 0.2%y" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1968575398360613146) 2025-09-18T07:18Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.4% US shares +0.4% Nasdaq +0.3%. US govt still heading into a partial shutdown US [--] yr yld +1bp to 4.15% Oil -1.7% to $62.4 Gold +0.7% to $3859 Iron ore -1.8% to $103.55 Bitcoin $114.4K ASX futures -0.1% $A [------] with $US index -0.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1973138459490746673) 2025-09-30T21:30Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.4% with French shares -1.4% on latest political turmoil US shares +0.4% Nasdaq +0.7% US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.15% Oil +1.3% to $61.7 Gold +1.9% to $3961 Iron ore +0.3% to $104.1 Bitcoin $125.2k.making a new record hi ASX futures +0.1% $A [------] w $US +0.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1975310227630379185) 2025-10-06T21:20Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Australian Westpac/MI consumer confidence -3.5% to a soft [----] reflecting higher inflation & last weeks more hawkish RBA commentary. Perceptions of family finances fell with the time to buy major items also down. Unemployment expectations fell but r well up from their [----] lows" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1975368668579332138) 2025-10-07T01:12Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.3% US shares -0.4% Nasdaq -0.7% US [--] yr yld -3bp to $4.13% Oil +0.6% to $62 Gold +0.5% to $3982.2 Iron ore flat at $104.1 Bitcoin $122.2k ASX futures -0.01% $A [------] with $US index +0.4%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1975663741506363398) 2025-10-07T20:45Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.6% US shares +0.6% Nasdaq +1.1% with Fed minutes providing no hawkish surprises US [--] yr yld 0.2bp to 4.12% Oil +0.5% to $62.4 Gold +1.5% to $4043.6 Iron ore -0.1% to $104 Bitcoin $123.3k ASX futures +0.4% $A [------] with $US index +0.1%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1976029467228377520) 2025-10-08T20:58Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "I had a great chat with Mark Bouris on the Australian property market interest rates tax government spending and lots of other things. "5% deposit is ridiculous" Mark Bouris & Shane Oliver - Y Home Loans https://yhomeloans.com.au/videos/mark-bouris-shane-oliver/ https://yhomeloans.com.au/videos/mark-bouris-shane-oliver/" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1976034752844206086) 2025-10-08T21:19Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.4% US shares -0.3% Nasdaq -0.1% US [--] yr yld +2bp to 4.14% Oil -1.4% to $61.5 Gold -1.7% to $3976.2 Iron ore +1.3% to $105.35 Bitcoin $121.2k ASX futures -0.4% $A [------] with $US index +0.4%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1976395229096968312) 2025-10-09T21:11Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -1.5% (-1.8% wk) US shares -2.7% (-2.4% wk) w Trump +100% tariffs on China after China rare earths controls from [--] Nov US [--] yr yld -11bp to 4.03% Oil -4.2% to $58.9 Gold +1% to $4018 Iron ore +0.8% to $105.8 Bitcoin $113k ASX futures -0.9% $A [------] w $US -0.7%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1976777889573122217) 2025-10-10T22:32Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "US Uni Michigan consumer confidence little changed at [--] [--] year ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.6% 5-10 year ahead inflation expectations unchanged at a still elevated 3.7% (Bloomberg chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1976778316104581579) 2025-10-10T22:34Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.7% US shares +1.6% Nasdaq +2.2% with de-escalatory rhetoric re trade from US & China US [--] yr yld closed at 4.03% futures little changed Oil +1.4% to $59.7 Gold +2.3% to $4109.1 Iron ore +0.3% to $106.1 Bitcoin $115.7k ASX futures +0.3% $A [------] w $US +0.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1977836671925424362) 2025-10-13T20:39Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.3% US shares -0.2% Nas -0.8% with US/Ch trade spat continuing but Powell on track for Oct rate cut & ending QT US [--] yr yld flat at 4.03% Oil -1.7% to $58.6 Gold +0.8% to $4142.9 Iron ore -0.3% to $105.8 Bitcoin $113k ASX futures +0.8% $A [------] with $US -0.1%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1978207135851794455) 2025-10-14T21:11Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +1% US shares +0.4% after earlier +1.4%helped by bank earnings but volatile session on trade uncertainty. Nas +0.7% US [--] yr yld -1bp to 4.03% Oil +0.2% to $58.8 Gold +1.6% to $4201.1 Iron ore -0.5% to $105.3 Bitcoin $111.2k ASX futures +0.1% $A [-----] w $US -0.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1978566340198724075) 2025-10-15T20:59Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Aust Sept emp +14.9k unemp rising to 4.5% after Aug revised to 4.3%. This was worse than exp with unemployment in rising trend & now above RBA forecasts (for 4.3%). It adds to confidence in our base case for a Nov rate cut. Q3 CPI is now key but the hurdle may be a bit lower now" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1978628322721763609) 2025-10-16T01:05Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "HIA new home sales +26% in September helped by the fall in rates and anticipation of the expanded low deposit scheme for FHBs (with a third of new homes built by/for FHBs). This is a good sign but it has to be sustained" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1978636180397994463) 2025-10-16T01:36Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Australia jobs growth is slowing down softer job openings warn of a further slowing ahead unemployment is tracing out a rising trend and is now above RBA forecasts and rising unemployment tends to see slowing wages growth The money mkt is back to 70% prob of a Nov rate cut" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1978653569789411502) 2025-10-16T02:45Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.8% US shares -0.6% with concerns about bad loans at [--] regional banks to same borrowers with allegations of fraud US [--] yr yld -5bp to 3.97% Oil -2.3% to $57.4 Gold +2.8% to $4326.6 Iron ore flat at $105.3 Bitcoin $108k ASX futures -0.3% $A [------] w $US -0.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1978933522355085797) 2025-10-16T21:18Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Weekly economic and market update - US-China trade escalation; Gold up/Bitcoin down; RBA cautious but weakening jobs supports Nov rate cut; Aust housing shortfall v the housing accord target https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-17-10-2025 https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-17-10-2025" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1979100579369525712) 2025-10-17T08:22Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.9% (+0.9% wk) US shares +0.5% (+1.7% wk) after Trump expressed optimism re China trade talks & regional banks rose US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.01% Oil +0.1% to $57.5 Gold -1.7% to $4252 Iron ore -0.7% to $104.7 Bitcoin $107.4 ASX futures -0.1% $A [------] w $US +0.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1979308230691164523) 2025-10-17T22:07Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "NZ Sept qtr CPI infl was +1%qoq/3%yoy (largely in line with RBNZ & mkt) with the rise being partly seasonal. Indicators of core inflation were flat to down. This along with weak economic conditions leaves the RBNZ on track to cut again next month. (Macquarie Macro Strategy chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1980059407238221850) 2025-10-19T23:52Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Relative Return Insider: Gold and crypto take different paths amid USChina tension https://www.investordaily.com.au/podcast/57986-relative-return-insider-gold-and-crypto-take-different-paths-amid-us-china-tension https://www.investordaily.com.au/podcast/57986-relative-return-insider-gold-and-crypto-take-different-paths-amid-us-china-tension" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1980069843832623516) 2025-10-20T00:33Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "China Sept qtr GDP +1.1%q & slowed to 4.8%y slightly exp. Activity data was mixed with stronger IP but slower retail sales & falling inv. Grth likely remain on track for around or just below 5% this yr with more targeting stimulus. Prop pricessales & investment remain a drag" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1980107118884864382) 2025-10-20T03:01Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +1.3% US shares +1.1% helped by good earnings Nas +1.4% US [--] yr yld -3bp to 3.98% Oil -0.1% to $57.4 Gold +2.4% to $4356.3 Iron ore -0.1% to $104.5 Bitcoin $111.1k ASX futures +0.5% $A $0.651 with $US index +0.1%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1980383365745504378) 2025-10-20T21:19Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Investment cycles - what are they and why you need to be aware of them Oliver's Insights - Investment cycles - AMP https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/olivers-insights-investment-cycles https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/olivers-insights-investment-cycles" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1980503186579640586) 2025-10-21T05:15Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.1% US shares flat Nasdaq -0.2% US [--] yr yld -3bp to 3.95% Oil -0.1% to $57.4 Gold -5.9% to $4100some pull back/correction was getting overdue as the recent run had become more speculative. Iron ore +0.5% to $105.1 Bitcoin $$108.2k $A [------] with $US flat" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1980814553983394200) 2025-10-22T01:52Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.8% US shares -0.5% Nas -0.9% with reports Trump admin mulling curbs on software exports to China US [--] yr yld +1bp to 4.96% Oil +5.3% to $60.5 with new Russian oil sanctions Gold -0.2% to $4091 Iron ore +0.2% to $105.3 Bitcoin $108.5k $A [------] w $US +0.1%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1981230450795237793) 2025-10-23T05:25Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "UK Sept core CPI inflation surprisingly slipped to 3.5%yoy not enough to bring on a BoE rate cut next month but still likely by early next year. (Bloomberg chart)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1981231192637571386) 2025-10-23T05:28Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "After its huge run gold was overbought & very specy (eg queue in Martin Place) & due a correction which could go for a while yet. Fundamental drivers like hi public debt risk govts try to inflate out of it & geo threats remain tho & versus past bubbles its a bit of a non-event" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1981233977978421432) 2025-10-23T05:39Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.5% US shares +0.6% Nasdaq +0.9% US [--] yr yld -6bp to 4% Oil +1.7% to $61.5 Gold +0.3% to $4104.6 Iron ore -0.2% to $105.1 Bitcoin $111.2k $A 0.65" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1981583287706632371) 2025-10-24T04:47Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Australias composite PMI for October was little changed with manufacturing down but services up. Readings for new orders and employment weakened. Price indicators softened which is a good sign for inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1981608707247968758) 2025-10-24T06:28Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "The US September qtr earnings reporting season is about 30% done. While Netflix and Tesla disappointed about 85% have beat expectations well above the norm of 76%. Earnings growth is on track for about 10%yoy compared to consensus expectations for around 7% a few weeks ago" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1981610891524124851) 2025-10-24T06:37Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "The oil price is up on Russian oil sanctions but only to where it was [--] weeks ago. Since Aust petrol prices lag the oil price by [--] weeks they didnt catch up to the fall below $US60 so there is no justification for a rise in petrol prices on the back of the bounce in oil prices" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1981618540328206386) 2025-10-24T07:07Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "US Sep core CPI +0.2%mom/3%yoy slightly exp. Solid rises in airfares furniture & clothing but with an offset from slowing shelter & tariff impacts still look modest so far. Implies core PCE 0.2%m/2.8%y. Leaves Fed on track to cut next wk & Dec. (Bloomberg & EvercoreISI charts)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1981726826314465443) 2025-10-24T14:17Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.1% (+1.2% wk) US shares +0.8% (+1.9% wk) as slightly lower than expected CPI supports Fed rate cuts. Nas +1.2% US [--] yr yld flat at 4% Oil flat at $61.5 Gold +0.2% to $4113.1 Iron ore +0.1% to $105.2 Bitcoin $111.3k ASX futures +0.3% $A [-----] with $US flat" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1981947264223564039) 2025-10-25T04:53Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "US October composite PMI rose with services and manufacturing up. Price pressures fell but remain elevated for input prices (tariff related)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1981963866767573151) 2025-10-25T05:59Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 70%=final 69%Oct norm 63% Mel 67%=final 65%Oct norm 64% Clearances slowed a bit more esp in Mel. It could be partly seasonal. Lower ratesthe expanded FHB 5% deposit scheme & constrained supply should see clearances remain solid. #ausecon" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1982015923553759721) 2025-10-25T09:26Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.6% US shares +1.2% with +ve news regarding US/Ch trade deal. Nas +1.9% US [--] yr yld -2bp to 4.98% Oil -0.5% to $61.2 Gold -3.3% to $3977.5 Iron ore +0.5% to $105.7 Bitcoin $114k $A [-----] with relatively hawkish comments by RBA Gov US/Ch optimism & $US -0.4%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1983035622928372133) 2025-10-28T04:58Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Relatively hawkish comments by RBA Gov Bullock leave much riding on Sep qtr trimmed mean infl: +0.6%q would be in line w RBA forecasts & imply a cut +0.7% would be close enough to allow a cut +0.8% would leave it a v close call +0.9% would be a material miss & likely see a hold" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1983039331955569108) 2025-10-28T05:13Z 35.6K followers, 10.7K engagements "Eurozone shares +0.1% US shares +0.2% Nasdaq +0.8% US [--] yr yld flat at 3.98% Oil -1.8% to $60.1 Gold -0.5% to $3956.5 Iron ore +0.1% to $105.8 Bitcoin $113k $A [------] with higher than expected Aust inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1983394899547578414) 2025-10-29T04:46Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Fed cut 0.25% to 3.75-4% as exp noting elevated infl but moderate grth & downside risks to employment rose. QT (or balance sheet runoff) to end on [--] Dec (after which securities will be purchased to offset maturing debt). Expect another cut in Dec (money mkt has 94% probability)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1983604033572237394) 2025-10-29T18:37Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares flat US shares flat were up slightly then fell as Powell said Dec not guaranteed (which is hardly surprising) US [--] yr yld +8bp to 4.06% Oil +0.2% to $60.2 Gold +0.5% to $3977.6 Iron ore +0.05% to $105.9 Bitcoin $109k $A 0.6594" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1983756723916828955) 2025-10-30T04:43Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.1% US shares -1% Nasdaq -1.6%with a bit of sell on the fact after buying on the rumour of Fed rate cut and Trump/Xi deal US [--] yr yld +4bp to 4.1% Oil -0.1% to $60.1 Gold +0.6% to $4000.6 Iron ore -0.05% to $105.85 Bitcoin $110k $A 0.655" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1984121673734615483) 2025-10-31T04:54Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.7% (-0.2% wk) US shares +0.3% (+0.7% wk).buoyed by earnings optimism constrained by Fed officials against latest cut US [--] yr yld -2bp to 4.08% Oil +0.7% to $61 Gold -0.5% to $4002.9 Iron ore +1.3% to $107 Bitcoin $110k ASX futures -0.1% $A [------] w $US +0.3%" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1984485232112803961) 2025-11-01T04:58Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements "Australian housing credit growth is continuing to accelerated driven mainly by investors. If this continues it will increase the risk of another round of macro prudential controls to slow lending perceived to be risky" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1984487287711801583) 2025-11-01T05:06Z 35.9K followers, 27.3K engagements "Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 70%=final 68%Oct norm 63% Mel 68%=final 65%Oct norm 64% Clearances remain solid with expanded FHB 5% deposit scheme but have been slowing a bit over the last few wks reflecting talk of less rate cuts & some rise in listings. #ausecon" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1984525147269669348) 2025-11-01T07:37Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "The Aust Melb Institutes Trimmed Mean Inflation rate remained around 2%yoy in October" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1985225960740819418) 2025-11-03T06:02Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Australian home building approvals bounced 12% in September after some weak months but was mainly due to volatile unit approvals. Approvals are continuing to trend around [------] a year which is up from [----] low but well below the Housing Accord target for 240k homes a year" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1985226555606352290) 2025-11-03T06:04Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Aust home prices saw their fastest monthly price rise in October since [----]. Rate cuts have clearly got their usual traction in the housing market" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1985229421821710693) 2025-11-03T06:15Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.3% US shares +0.2% Nasdaq +0.5% US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.11% Oil -0.2% to $60.9 Gold -0.3% to $3988.9 Iron ore -2.8% to $104.2 Bitcoin $106.8k $A 0.6534" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1985572715206484406) 2025-11-04T05:00Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "RBA revised its inflation forecasts up again reflecting materially higher Sep qtr inflation I suspect the Sept qtr CPI exaggerated the upside (as in Q3 2023) & subsequent data will show lower infl & with subdued growth and higher unemployment will see the RBA cut again next yr" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1985583911431291132) 2025-11-04T05:44Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares -0.3% US shares -1.2% Nasdaq -2% w valuation concerns. Shutdown now longest ever but signs of offramp after Dem election wins US [--] yr yld -4bp to 4.07% Oil -0.7% to $60.4 Gold -0.7% to $3960.2 Iron ore +0.1% to $104.3 Bitcoin $102.2k with risk off $A 0.6491" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1985926812971544758) 2025-11-05T04:27Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Eurozone shares +0.2% US shares +0.4%. US [--] yr yld +7bp to 4.15%. Supreme Court questioning sceptical of IEEPA tariffs but decision unlikely till next yr & Trump has other ways to impose tariffs Oil -0.9% to $59.9 Gold -1.8% to $3988.9 Iron ore -0.05% $104.2 $103.2k $A 0.651" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1986310179915194627) 2025-11-06T05:50Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements "Bank of England left rates on hold at 4% as widely expected but it was a dovish hold with a 5/4 vote with inflation is judged to have peaked and replacing its rate cutting guidance with :cautious and gradual to just gradual. Its likely to cut again in December" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1986471510282797207) 2025-11-06T16:31Z 35.6K followers, [---] engagements "US Oct job cuts up sharply on Challenger Gray & Christmas data adding to concerns about a weakening US jobs mkt & adding to Fed rate cut exps. Other jobs data is a bit more mixed with ADP up in Oct but trending softer & initial claims still low. (Bloomberg & EvercoreISI charts)" [X Link](https://x.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1986473595216736314) 2025-11-06T16:39Z 35.6K followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@ShaneOliverAMP Shane Oliver
Shane Oliver posts on X about $us, inflation, futures, bitcoin the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-----] #
- [--] Week [------] -57%
- [--] Month [-------] +51%
- [--] Months [-------] -12%
- [--] Year [---------] -43%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] -16%
- [--] Month [---] +16%
- [--] Months [---] +6.80%
- [--] Year [---] -23%
Followers: [------] #
- [--] Week [------] +0.04%
- [--] Month [------] +0.38%
- [--] Months [------] +2.10%
- [--] Year [------] +5.30%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance stocks countries cryptocurrencies exchanges #6226 travel destinations technology brands us election currencies automotive brands
Social topic influence $us #10, inflation #792, futures, bitcoin, nasdaq #686, bloomberg, china, fed, goldman sachs, rates
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @timb26119851 @dianamousina @anilkirann @thathanslee @cblish22 @eleanorcreagh @piepaulie @thebatman1961 @jasonbryce @qarocks @bloomberg @peterswitzer @youtube @dazztweets @avidcommentator @cannonball @danielh16577898 @jensterq @centaurrita @rbainfo
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) Goldman Sachs (GS) Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB) April (APRIL)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 62%=final 61%Nov avg [--] Mel 68%=final 65%Nov avg [--] Clearances rose in Mel but fell in Syd but with both down in November - looks partly seasonal but with the less favourable RBA rate outlook & rising listings also impacting. #ausecon"
X Link 2025-11-29T12:51Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"NZ Sept qtr GDP +1.1%qoq/+1.3%yoy. This was a bit stronger than expected. Investment rose a strong 3.6%qoq and net exports added 0.45%pts but consumer spending rose just 0.1%qoq. Given the monetary easing expect further recovery going forward albeit at a slower rate"
X Link 2025-12-18T01:41Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Eurozone shares -1.7% US futures -0.9% on Trump threat to impose tariffs on Europe unless Greenland is sold to US & possible retaliation US [--] yr yld 4.22% Oil +0.1% to $59.4 Gold +1.7% to $4671(new hi) Iron ore -0.5% to $106 Bitcoin $93.1k ASX futures -0.34% $A [-----] w $US -0.3%"
X Link 2026-01-19T21:07Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.6% US shares -2.1% in react to Trumps tariffs on Eur surge in Japan ylds on pre-election tax cut US [--] yr yld +7bp to 4.29% Oil +0.1% to $59.46 Gold +2% to $4763 Iron ore -0.3% to $105.7 Bitcoin $89.4k.down with shares ASX futures -0.6% $A [------] w $US -0.3%"
X Link 2026-01-20T22:02Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.2% US shares +1.2% as Trump claims framework deal for Greenland ruled out use of forceTACO US [--] yr yld -4bp to 4.25% Oil +2.1% to $60.7 Gold +1.3% to $4825.4 (investors wary & bit of FOMO too) Iron ore -0.3% to $105.3 ASX futures +0.5% $A [-----] w $US flat"
X Link 2026-01-21T21:28Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust Dec emp +65k full time +55k participation flat unemp fell to 4.1% underemp fell to 5.7%stronger than exp after weak mths. Likely just volatility over yr end/new yr (school leavers annual leave etc) but makes a Feb rate hike more likely if trimmed mean infl 0.8%qoq"
X Link 2026-01-22T01:22Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +1.25% US shares +0.6% Nas +0.9% US [--] yr yld +1bp to 4.25% Oil -2.1% to $59.4 Gold +2% to $4920silver +3.4%.to record highs as demand for a hedge against geopolitical risk remains Iron ore +0.3% to $105.7 Bitcoin $89.5k ASX futures -0.1% $A [-----] w $US -0.3%"
X Link 2026-01-22T21:35Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Weekly economic and market update - shares down on "Iceland"/up on TACO; new new record highs for gold; $A on the up helped by Trump; Aust Dec qtr inflation to ease a bit; happy songs Weekly Market Update - 23-01-2026 - AMP https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-23-01-2026 https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-23-01-2026"
X Link 2026-01-23T08:36Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.2% (-1.1% wk) US shares +0.03%(-0.4% wk)Nas +0.3% US [--] yr yld -1bp to 4.23% Oil +3.1% to $61.3risk of US strike on Iran w US armada heading to MidEast Gold +1% to $4987.5ditto Iron ore +0.1% to $105.8 Bitcoin $89.5k ASX futures +0.1% $A [------] w $US -0.9%"
X Link 2026-01-23T22:08Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"With $US in retreat on the back of Trumps erratic announcements (now threatening 100% tariff on Can w a high risk of another shutdown following ICE in Minneapolis) & the RBA expected to hike by the mkts when the Fed cuts the $A is at its highest since Jan [----]. Bloomberg chart"
X Link 2026-01-25T21:18Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.2% US shares +0.5% Nasdaq +0.6% US [--] yr yld -2bp to 4.21% Oil -0.8% to $60.8 Gold +0.8% to $5028 silver +2%.as hedge demand for geopolitical risk Fed concerns continue Iron ore -0.1% to $105.7 Bitcoin $87.8k ASX futures +0.4% $A [------] with $US index -0.4%"
X Link 2026-01-26T21:29Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.6% US shares +0.4% Nas +0.9% US [--] yr yld+3bp to 4.24% Oil +2.8% to $62.5 on fears of US Iran strike Gold +3.1% to $5182.4 silver +8% Iron ore +0.05% to $105.65 Bitcoin $88.9k ASX futures +0.4% $A [------] highest in two years as $US -1% on talk of intervention"
X Link 2026-01-27T22:06Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"US Conference Board consumer confidence index down sharply in January as perceptions of the labour market deteriorated further. Annual home price growth edged up to 0.5%mom/1.4%yoy. (UBS JP Morgan and Bloomberg charts)"
X Link 2026-01-27T22:48Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"while we now expect an RBA hike next wk we think its likely to be one & done - with RBA then cautious as biz survey measures of final price pressures are not spiking consumer confidence & spending will likely take a hit and the rising $A may take pressure off inflation"
X Link 2026-01-28T03:34Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Two ways gov can help get Aust inflation down 1/slow grth in administered prices (utilitiescouncil rates etc) as they are running 6%yoy 2/cut public spending (now a record 28% of GDP) back to more normal levels (22.5% avg in 1990-2019) to make room for private sector spending"
X Link 2026-01-28T21:32Z 35.9K followers, 16K engagements
"Eurozone shares -1% US shares flat Nasdaq +0.2% US [--] yr yld flat at 4.24% Oil +1.1% to $63.2 Gold +5% to $5442 Iron ore -0.1% to $105.5 Bitcoin $89.3k ASX futures -0.1% $A [------] w $US +0.4% as Bessent supported a strong dollar said not intervened to support Yen"
X Link 2026-01-28T23:09Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.7% US shares -0.1% (up from -1.5% earlier on a tech plunge) Nasdaq -0.7% US [--] yr yld -1bp to 4.23% Oil +3.4% to $65.3 with rising risk of US Iran strike Gold -0.8% to $5399.1 Iron ore +0.05% to $105.6 Bitcoin $84.2k ASX futures +0.4% $A [------] with $US -0.1%"
X Link 2026-01-29T21:22Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Weekly market update - another wobbly week on Trump news; rising Iran risk; high Aust inflation; Gov should cut spending to ease inflation; rising $A is defacto monetary tightening Weekly market update - 30-01-2026 - AMP https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-30-01-2026 https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-30-01-2026"
X Link 2026-01-30T10:15Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"US Dec producer price inflation rose more than exp with core +0.7%mom/3.3%yoy. The components that flow through to core PCE inflation along with CPI data suggest Dec core PCE will rise 0.35%mom or 2.9-3%yoy which is a bit less first expected. Neutral for Fed (Bloomberg chart)"
X Link 2026-01-30T20:36Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.9%(+0.2% wk) US shares -0.4%up from -1.1% on Warsh nomination(+0.3% wk) US [--] yr yld +1bp to 4.24% Oil -0.3% to $65.2 Gold -9% to $4894silver -26%.both correcting from overbought Iron ore -2.3% to $103 Bitcoin $83.9k ASX futures -0.7% $A [-----] w $US +0.9%"
X Link 2026-01-30T23:15Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Cotality data showed home prices +0.8%mom in Jan after Syd and Melb rose slightly after seasonal weakness in Dec. But both are weak and overall momentum has slowed. The housing shortage remains but rate hike talk and poor affordability will likely see some slowing this year"
X Link 2026-02-01T23:50Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust ANZ-Indeed job ads +4.4%mom in Jan which is a positive sign although it can be volatile over Dec/Jan"
X Link 2026-02-02T02:07Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust Melbourne Institute trimmed mean inflation flat in Jan and running just above 2%yoy. The annual measures has tended to undershoot the ABS trimmed mean but monthly increases also seem to have trended down a bit since July last year"
X Link 2026-02-02T02:10Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone GDP growth up 0.3%qoq/1.3%yoy in the Dec qtr and has been improving a bit particularly if volatile Ireland is excluded. Unemployment fell to 6.2% in December. (Macquarie Macro Strategy charts)"
X Link 2026-02-02T02:14Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"RBA +0.25% to 3.85% as widely expected. (We had thought it was 50/50 but were wrong in our assessment RBA would hold) RBA noted material pick up in inflation in second half [----] & noted stronger than expected private demand capacity pressure & labour mkt being a little tight"
X Link 2026-02-03T03:52Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone CPI inflation fell to 1.7%yoy in January with core falling to 2.2%yoy. As its around target its consistent with the ECB remaining on hold"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:37Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"The RBAs forecasts for slowing then falling dwelling investment to [----] imply it does not see the Housing Accord target for 240k homes a year being met - as it would require a rise in dwelling investment growth (unless there are a lot of tiny homes in the mix) (RBA SOMP p56)"
X Link 2026-02-04T23:45Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Australias goods trade surplus +$0.8bn to $3.4bn in Dec with exports +1%mom & imports -0.8%mom. Net exports look to have detracted 0.3%pts from Dec qtr GDP grth. The share of exports going to US has trended up a bit but distorted by front running of feared tariffs eg gold"
X Link 2026-02-05T02:37Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Mixed US job reports Job openings down in Dec hiring rate still lo & Challenger job cuts spiked in Jan But quits rate up from lowlayoffs rate remained low & while jobless claims rose they remain lo Messy picture for Fed keeping further rate cuts alive (EvercoreISI ISI charts)"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:32Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% but shifted dovish with forecasts for higher unemp and lower inflation and a 5/4 vote to hold. Likely to cut again by April ECB held and looks neutral wiht geo risk but Ger stimulus altho money mkt still sees a 25% chance of another cut"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:42Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Chinese property prices continued to fall in January. (Goldman Sachs charts)"
X Link 2026-02-13T05:50Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"The -ve real wage gap in the US from the pandemic is largely closed - unlike in Aust. This has been made possible by strong productivity grth (2%pa) in contrast to Aust. Strong productivity grth allows solid wages grth but keeps growth in unit labour costs & hence inflation down"
X Link 2026-02-14T00:26Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust CoreLogic August capital city home prices -0.5% led by Melb & Syd with other cities flattish/up. Melb being impacted by Stage [--] lockdown JobKeeper & bank payment holidays protecting the mkt but expect further falls into next yr given high unemp & hit to immigration/demand"
X Link 2020-09-01T01:12Z 35.9K followers, [--] engagements
"With mortgage rates likely having bottomed the capacity to pay for a home for a borrower on average earnings has likely peaked well below its 2021-22 peak but home prices are 15-20% higher"
X Link 2026-02-01T23:54Z 35.9K followers, 15.1K engagements
"Eurozone shares +1% US shares +0.5% Nasdaq +0.6% US [--] yr yld +5bp to 4.28% Oil -4.6% to $62.2 with US/Iran talks Gold -4.6% to $4667 Iron ore -0.6% to $102.6 Bitcoin $78.8k ASX futures +1.1% $A [------] with $US index +0.3%"
X Link 2026-02-02T21:25Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust home building approvals -15%mom driven by -32% in volatile unit approvals. The trend is up (consistent with new home sales) and is running around 200k a yr pointing to some pick up in completions. But its still well below the Housing Accord target for 240k homes a year"
X Link 2026-02-03T02:06Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"RBA revised up its near term growth & infl forecasts & unemp revised down. Now seeing inflation higher longer despite a higher $A & cash rate assumption suggesting its effectively endorsing mkt exps for more hikes. That said it was similar but with rate cuts back in Aug"
X Link 2026-02-03T04:31Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.2% US shares -0.8% Nasdaq -1.4% with geo tensions as US shoots down Iran drone heading toward aircraft carrier US [--] yr yld -1bp to 4.27% Oil +2.8% to $63.9 Gold +5.8% to $4939.1 Iron ore +0.2% to $102.85 Bitcoin $76.2k ASX futures -0.2% $A [------] w $US -0.3%"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:59Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.4% US shares -0.5% Nas -1.5% as software stocks under pressure on fears re the impact of AI on software demand US [--] yr yld +1bp tp 4.28% Oil +0.7% to $64.4 Gold +0.2% to $4950.1 Iron ore -1.5% to $101.35 Bitcoin $73.2k ASX futures -0.4% $A [------] w $US +0.3%"
X Link 2026-02-04T21:13Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Fed Gov spending is projected to grow 8.2% in 2025-26 after [--] & 8% grth in last [--] fin yrs (MYEFO). So Fed spending grth is contributing to demand grth & is settling at a high % of GDP. To ease capacity constraints & pressure on int rates it needs to be cut to more normal levels"
X Link 2026-02-05T03:41Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.8% US shares -1.2% Nas -1.6%.concerns re tech valuations impact of AI on other tech & soft jobs data US [--] yr yld -8bp to 4.19% Oil -1.8% to $63 Gold -2.5% to $4825 Iron ore -0.7% to $100.6 Bitcoin $64.4k.down w shares ASX futures -1.1% $A [-----] w $US +0.3%"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:14Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.9% (+0.9% wk) US shares +2% (-0.1% wk) Nasdaq +2.2%as dip buying kicked in US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.21% Oil +0.4% to $65.3 Gold +3.9% to $4964 Iron ore -1.2% to $99.6 Bitcoin +11% to $70.6k.up with shares ASX futures +1.2% $A [-----] with $US index -0.2%"
X Link 2026-02-06T22:24Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust Dec household spending -0.4%m after events & discounting boosted Oct & Nov Dec qtr was +0.9%qoq in real terms Clothing furnishings culture & hotels saw falls after event & sales boosts in Oct & Nov Suggests strong Q4 consumption but rate hikes may slow it ahead"
X Link 2026-02-09T02:15Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +1% US shares +0.5% Nasdaq +0.9% US [--] yr yld -0.4bp to 4.2% Oil +1.4% to $64.4 Gold +1.2% to $5057.8 Iron ore +1.4% to $101.05 Bitcoin $70.5k ASX futures +0.4% $A [------] with $US index -0.6%"
X Link 2026-02-09T22:36Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"US retail sales flat in Dec ex auto & gas also flat with cold weather but cons spending likely rose at a solid 2.7% pace in Dec qtr Small biz optimism little changed at [----] Dec qtr ECI softer than exp at +0.7%qoq.34%yoy with quits pointing to further slowing EvercoreISI charts"
X Link 2026-02-10T20:48Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.2% US shares -0.3% Nasdaq -0.6% US [--] yr yld -6bp to 4.14% with softer economic data Oil -0.3% to $64.2 Gold -0.6% to $5027.4 Iron ore -0.4% to $100.6 Bitcoin $68.8k ASX futures +0.3% $A [------] with $US index flat"
X Link 2026-02-10T21:27Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Aust Dec qtr housing finance +9.5%qoq with owner occupiers +10.6%q & investors +7.9%q reflecting the strength in home prices. New home loan sizes continue to rise with home prices. The investor share of total finance is continuing to trend up with the FHB share trending down"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:12Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"China Jan CPI inflation dropped more than exp to 0.2%y from 0.8%y.partly due to timing mismatch for China NY (Jan last yr Feb this yr). Core infl also fell to 0.8%y from 1.2%y Producer price deflation eased to -1.4%yoy from -1.9%yoy lowflation & deflation remains an issue"
X Link 2026-02-11T05:01Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.2% US shares flatNas -0.2% US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.17%as stronger than exp jobs saw Fed rate cut expectations pared Oil +0.7% to $64.6.ongoing Iran tensions Gold +1.1% to $5084.4 Iron ore +0.2% to $100.8 Bitcoin $67.5k ASX futures -0.02% $A [------] w $US flat"
X Link 2026-02-11T22:48Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Aust Westpac/MI consumer confidence -2.6pts to a weak [----] with all the rise from last yrs rate cut now reversed. The ANZ/Roy Morgan confidence index is weaker. Most components weakened. Confidence fell for all housing groups but is weakest for mortgage holders & renters"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:47Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.4% US shares -1.6% Nasdaq -2% with ongoing concerns about AI disruption capex and valuations US [--] yr yld -9bp to 4.09%safe haven demand Oil -2.7% to $62.9 Gold -3.3% to $4917 Iron ore -0.7% to $100.1 Bitcoin $65.6k ASX futures -0.9% $A [------] w $US +0.1%"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:27Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"US Jan existing home sales -8.4%momremaining weak Initial jobless claims -5kstill low despite impacts from bad weather Continuing jobless claims +21k (Bloomberg and EvercoreISI charts)"
X Link 2026-02-12T21:39Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements
"US Jan CPI was benign v fears: +0.2%m/2.4%y core +0.3%m/2.5%y (from 2.6%y) Core goods ex transport +0.46%m likely reflecting tariffs but offset elsewhere Suggests Jan core PCE +0.3%m/3%y Supportive for rate cuts from mid yr assuming tariff impact peaks (Bloomberg & ISI charts)"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:38Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.5% (-0.3% wk) US shares +0.05% (-1.4% wk) Nasdaq -0.2% Mag [--] -1.1% US [--] yr yld -5bp to 5.05% Oil -0.2% to $62.7 Gold +2.2% to $5033.4 Iron ore -0.5% to $99.15 Bitcoin $68.9k ASX futures +0.6% $A [------] with $US index -0.1% (Bloomberg chart)"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:58Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements
"The tariff pass through effect on US inflation may be at or close to peakingpotentially allowing Fed rate cuts from around mid year if core PCE inflation starts falling back to target and the labour market is not overheating"
X Link 2026-02-14T00:23Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 70%=final 68%Feb avg [--] Mel 68%=final 65%Feb avg [--] Clearances down in Sydney but up in Melbourne. Both around average for Feb. Listings down a bit on a year ago but rate hikes & expectations for more to come will be a dampener. #ausecon"
X Link 2026-02-14T07:36Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"US Congress agrees $900bn (4% of GDP) stimulus Includes: direct $600 payments to most $300/week enhanced unemp benefits thru Mar $284bn for Paycheck Protection Program. Will be part of bill funding gov thru to Sept Should be largely factored into share mkt"
X Link 2020-12-21T04:36Z 35.8K followers, [--] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.2% US shares -0.2% Nas -0.1% w benign CPI still likely to see Fed hold in Jan & JP Morgan miss US [--] yr yld flat at 4.18% Oil +2.7% to $61.1 w US Iran threats Gold -0.2% to $4586.5 Iron ore +0.5% to $108.5 Bitcoin $94.2k ASX futures -0.1% $A [-----] w $US +0.2%"
X Link 2026-01-13T22:16Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.4% US shares -0.5% Nas -1% as Mag [--] -1.5% and rotation to cyclicals and small caps continues US [--] yr yld -4bp to 4.14% Oil -1.6% to $60.1 Gold +0.9% to $4626 new record hi Iron ore -1% to $107.5 Bitcoin $97.5k ASX futures +0.3% $A [-----] with $US index flat"
X Link 2026-01-14T21:29Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.6% US shares +0.2% Nasdaq +0.3% US [--] yr yld +4bp to 4.17% Oil -1.9% to $59 Gold -0.3% to $4610.9 Iron ore -0.2% to $107.2 Bitcoin $95.3k ASX futures -0.1% $A [------] with $US index flat"
X Link 2026-01-15T21:16Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"China [----] GDP came in at target at +5% but slowed to 4.5%yoy in Dec qtr (= mkt). Dec data shows IP growth up slightly but retail sales & investment weakening further with property inv sales & prices remaining a drag. Expect more incremental stimulus measures (Bloomberg chart)"
X Link 2026-01-19T03:02Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Japanese inflation fell sharply in December to 2.1%yoy due to a fall in vegetable prices. Core (ex food and energy) inflation fell back to 1.5%yoy from 1.6%yoy. Expect the BoJ to remain on hold for a few months having just hiked in December. (Goldman Sachs chart)"
X Link 2026-01-23T01:21Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"GreenlandCanadaKorea.all these tariff announcements are bad for inv & jobs add to the chance SCOTUS will rule against use of emergency power this way likely to be taken less & less seriously (w a low TACO hurdle w midterms)& are becoming a comedy https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/26/economy/tariffs-trump-south-korea https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/26/economy/tariffs-trump-south-korea"
X Link 2026-01-27T03:11Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust Dec inflation +3.8%y with Dec qtr trimmed mean +0.9%q/3.4%y (up from 3%y). This was above mkt & RBA forecasts for trimmed mean at 3.2%y. Services infl edged up & the breadth of price rises 3%y rose. On the back of hawkish RBA commentary its now likely to hike next week"
X Link 2026-01-28T03:26Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"the big contributors to inflation were electricity and holiday travel. Administered price inflation remained around 6%yoy but with mkt services inflation also picked up. Rent and dwelling purchase costs slowed in the month but remain elevated"
X Link 2026-01-28T03:30Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% upgrading growth assessment from moderate to solid & noting signs of stabilisation in unemp. Likely to remain on hold for a while until new Chair. Mkt still sees [---] cuts by yr end. Dec dot plot has one cut this yr. Miran & Waller voted for a cut"
X Link 2026-01-28T20:44Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"BoC also held rates as expected at 2.25% noting difficult to predict timing or direction of next move. Outlook little changed. Mkt sees risk of cut in near term then possible hike later this yr"
X Link 2026-01-28T20:56Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"TACO TUNA or whateveranalysis from Bloomberg Economics shows that most of Trumps tariff threats are not imposed in full. (Chart from Bloomberg)"
X Link 2026-01-29T05:01Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"US initial jobless claims fell 1k and remained low with continuing claims -38k. Third quarter productivity was confirmed at 4.9% annualised leaving unit labour costs down 1.9% which is acting to help keep inflation down (EvercoreISI charts)"
X Link 2026-01-29T20:47Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust credit growth picked up in Dec to 0.8%mom/7.7%yoy with stronger mthly grth in other personal business and housing (due to investors). Housing investor credit growth is now running above its [----] high and may prompt further APRA tightening if it doesnt slow Bloomberg table"
X Link 2026-01-30T01:16Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust producer price inflation slowed to 0.8%qoq in the December quarter but remained at 3.5%yoy. (Bloomberg chart)"
X Link 2026-01-30T01:18Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Tokyo inflation fell to 1.5%yoy in Dec with core (ie ex food and energy) falling to 1.4%yoy. The BoJ still needs to be gradual (Goldman Sachs chart)"
X Link 2026-01-30T02:39Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust Federal 2025-26 budget deficit up till Dec running worse than previous years as spending surges 15%yoy but looking like it might come in $5-10bn better than the $37bn forecast in MYEFO - thanks to ongoing upside revenue surprises"
X Link 2026-01-30T06:05Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Warsh nom as Fed Chair. Less dovish than Hassett hence shares down a bit $US +0.9% & sharp falls in gold & silver from v overbought. Warsh will still come in dovish tho but likely balanced long term. If Powell & Cook stay as govs Trump appointees will not have control of Board"
X Link 2026-01-30T23:25Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"European Q2 earnings not so good so far; running at 49% exp on profit but improving PMIs should lead to an improvement going forward"
X Link 2013-07-26T00:07Z 35.8K followers, [--] engagements
"#BoJ keeps current rate settings & QE at 80trn Yen but forward guidance to maintain current rates until after impact of Oct [----] consumption tax hike drops out. Widens range around JGB target to +/-0.2%. Overall dovish ultra easy for long haul. JGBs back down to 0.05% Yen down"
X Link 2018-07-31T17:31Z 35.6K followers, [--] engagements
"@anilkiran_n It would lower interest costs for those with a mortgage so yes it would help households. A lower $A would help overall economic growth (and in recent times it hasnt had much impact on inflation). Banks hedge most of their foreign borrowing back to $As"
X Link 2018-12-18T21:38Z 35.8K followers, [--] engagements
"@ThatHansLee @cblish22 @Eleanor_Creagh .most my spending is in $As & if you add in divs (which is important as Aust companies pay big share of TSR in divs) the high was surpassed in [----]. Can go in circles on this Huge gain in Aust shares into [----] v global shares underperformance this decade. Just mean reversion"
X Link 2019-07-29T03:16Z 35.8K followers, [--] engagements
"@piepaulie @TheBatman1961 Cars are part of consumer spending but you are right they are also imported so it offsets (apart from the value add in Aust from dealers etc). That said they are still a good guide to cyclical consumer spending"
X Link 2019-09-04T12:33Z 35.6K followers, [--] engagements
"Core Logic Aust dwelling prices Nov MTD: Syd +2.3% up 8% from low (recovered nearly 50% of 15%/20mth fall in 6mths) Melb +1.7% up 7.9% from low (recovered 62% of fall) Bris +0.7% Ade +0.4% Per +0.3% S & M remaining hot(helped by low but rising listings) pick up in other cities"
X Link 2019-11-26T03:04Z 35.6K followers, [--] engagements
"#BoJ removed 80trn pa yen limit on JGB purchase and substantially increased limits on corporate financing . Former is mainly symbolic (as current JGB purchases well below limit) but latter is more significant. GDP forecasts revised to -3to-5% for [----] and to +2.8-+3.9% for 2021"
X Link 2020-04-27T10:52Z 35.6K followers, [--] engagements
"Australia continues to see a very low death rate from #COVID19 likely reflecting some combination of a younger population less dense living better health care & a relatively well managed containment/lockdown"
X Link 2020-05-29T03:36Z 35.5K followers, [--] engagements
"Australias unemployment benefit payment compares poorly to that in other OECD countries. #ausecon"
X Link 2021-02-24T01:28Z 35.9K followers, [---] engagements
"RBA hikes +0.5% to 1.35% as widely expected citing hi infl econ resilient the tight labour mkt and likely faster wages grth. Remains hawkish expecting to do more and will "do what is necessary" to return inflation to target. We see cash rate peaking 2.5% in first half next yr"
X Link 2022-07-05T04:41Z 35.7K followers, [--] engagements
"Australian household wealth fell 3.3% in the June qtr (or -$484bn) after [--] qtrs of strong growth as shares & bonds fell (hitting super) and property prices fell. With a lag this will start to act as a drag on consumer spending. (ABS chart)"
X Link 2022-09-29T02:24Z 35.7K followers, [--] engagements
"@jasonbryce Of course there are But as at June the Aust household sector had $1456bn in deposits v $2829bn in debt. So a rate hike is clearly cash flow negative for the household sector. And spending for those with a big mortgage is likely far more net income sensitive"
X Link 2022-10-04T07:57Z 35.7K followers, [--] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.4% US closed S&P futures +0.3% Ger [--] yr yld -8bp to 1.84% Oil +0.6% to $77.96 Gold +0.3% to $1755.2 Iron ore +0.4% to $92.9 ASX futures +0.2% $A [------] with $US index -0.2%"
X Link 2022-11-24T21:04Z 35.7K followers, [--] engagements
"Aust March qtr export prices +1.6%qoq/6.9%yoy with fertiliser lithium and ore prices up despite fa;l; in coal and gas prices Import prices -4.2%qoq/+4.7%yoy with petrol prices -16.6%qoq & $A up Terms of trade up and remaining high which will boost nominal GDP (JP Morgan chart)"
X Link 2023-04-27T02:57Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.3% US shares +0.3% Nasdaq +0.4% with mostly good earnings news US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.14% Oil -0.9% to $74.5 Gold +0.4% to $2028.6 Iron ore +0.1% to $134.3 ASX futures +0.2% $A [------] with $US index +0.2%"
X Link 2024-01-23T21:35Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.3% US shares -0.3% Nasdaq -0.3% US [--] yr yld +5bp to 4.25% Oil +1.4% to $81.97 Gold +0.3% to $2171.8 Iron ore +0.1% to $110.5 ASX futures -0.4% $A [------] with $US index -0.2%"
X Link 2024-03-25T21:19Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.4% US shares -0.3% Nasdaq -0.4% US [--] yr yld -1bp to 4.23% Oil -0.4% to $81.6 Gold +0.3% to $2178.8 Iron ore -0.5% to $110 ASX futures -0.2% $A [------] with $US index flat"
X Link 2024-03-26T21:52Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.9% (+1.1% wk)as Fr/Ger bond yld spread highest since [----] US shares -0.2% (+0.6% wk)with triple witching US [--] yr yld -0.4bp to 2.25% Oil -0.2% to $81.97 Gold -1.6% to $2321.98 Iron ore -0.7% to $106.4 ASX futures -0.2% $A [-----] with $US +0.2% Bloomberg chart"
X Link 2024-06-21T23:34Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.9% US shares -0.3% Nas -1.1% with tech under pressure & Nvidia -13% from hi. Bitcoin back to $60k US [--] yr yld -2bp to 4.23% Oil -0.3% to $81.7 Gold +0.5% to $2333.8 Iron ore [-----] to $105.9 ASX futures +0.5% $A [------] with $US index -0.3% (Bloomberg charts)"
X Link 2024-06-24T22:28Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.3% US shares +0.4% Nasdaq +1.3% with Nvidia +7% US [--] yr yld +2bp to 4.25% Oil -1.1% to $80.8 Gold -0.6% to $2319.6 Iron ore +0.3% to $106.25 ASX futures -0.4% $A [------] with $US index +0.2%"
X Link 2024-06-25T21:30Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.4% with French CAC -0.7% US shares +0.2% Nasdaq +0.5% US [--] yr yld +8bp to 4.33% Oil +0.1% to $80.9 Gold -0.9% to [------] Iron ore +0.3% to $106.6 ASX futures -1.1% $A [------] with $US +0.4%"
X Link 2024-06-26T21:53Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.3% (with French CAC -1%) US shares +0.1% Nasdaq +0.3% with softer data supporting Fed rate cut expectations US [--] yr yld -4bp to 4.29% Oil +1% to $81.7 Gold +1.3% to $2327.5 Iron ore -0.2% to $106.4 ASX futures +0.3% $A [------] with $US index flat"
X Link 2024-06-27T22:17Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"UK Aug inflation flat at 2.2%y with core rising to 3.6%y & services rising to 5.6%y which were in line with exps. The rise was mainly due to volatile airfares with underlying momentum in services infl slowing. BoE prob wont cut tomorrow but on track for Nov cut (Bloomberg charts)"
X Link 2024-09-18T10:25Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.8% US shares +0.6% as shares look past Trumps tariffs US [--] yr yld +2bp to 4.3% Oil -0.6% to $68.7 on Is/Hez cease fire Gold +0.2% to $2632 Bitcoin $91.7k with 8% fall from hi looking corrective ahead of further rise ASX futures +0.45% $A [-----] w $US +0.2%"
X Link 2024-11-26T21:50Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.7% with French shares -0.7% with budget impasse US shares -0.4% Nasdaq -0.6% US [--] yr yld -6bp to 4.25% Oil +0.1% to $68.8 Gold +0.2% to $2636.9 Bitcoin $96.5k Iron ore +0.3% to $102.5 ASX futures +0.25% $A [------] with $US index -0.7%"
X Link 2024-11-27T21:28Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust still in per capita recession with per capita GDP -0.3%qoq/-1.5%yoylowest since early 90s recession (ex covid) Per capita GDP has fallen in [--] of the last [--] quarters and is down -2.1% since its June qtr [----] high. (Its one indicator of falling living standards in Australia)"
X Link 2024-12-04T01:46Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"ECB cut -0.25% taking policy rate to 3% and moving more dovish by dropping its comment to keep policy sufficiently restrictive. Likely on the way to 1.5% Swiss National Bank cut -0.5% to just 0.5%"
X Link 2024-12-12T21:57Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Mid Yr Econ & Fiscal Outlook saw Gov confirm a return to deficit this fin yr with bigger deficits driven mainly be policy easing incl $5.6bn in decisions taken but not yet announced for election promises Gov continuing to lock in public spending as higher % GDP than pre Covid"
X Link 2024-12-18T05:32Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +2.4% US shares +0.6% (after earlier being +1.3%) Nasdaq +1.2% US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.63% Oil -0.8% to $73.4 Gold -0.1% to $2636.4 Bitcoin $101.7k Iron ore -0.7% to $98.1 ASX futures +0.15% $A [------] with $US index -0.6%"
X Link 2025-01-06T22:15Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.4% US shares closed. Futures -0.2% US [--] yr yld flat at 4.69% Oil +1.2% to $74.2 Gold +0.3% to $2670.8 Bitcoin $92.1k Iron ore +0.5% to $97.8 ASX futures +0.3% $A [------] with $US index +0.1%"
X Link 2025-01-09T22:06Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.8%(+1.6% wk) US shares -1.5% (-1.9% wk).strong jobs reducing Fed cut exps US [--] yr yld +7bp to 4.76% Oil +3.7% to $76.7 w more Ru sanctions Gold +0.9% to $2690 Bitcoin $94.7k Iron ore +1.3% to $99.1 ASX futures -0.9% $A [------] (lowest since Apr 2020)$US +0.4%"
X Link 2025-01-10T22:11Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.1% (+1.3% wk) US shares -0.5% (-1% wk) +0.8% but fell as Trump repeated [--] Feb tariffs on Can Mex & Ch US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.54% Oil +1.2% to $73.6 Gold +0.1% to $2798.4 Bitcoin $102.3k Iron ore flat at $101.6 ASX futures -1.2% $A [-----] w $US +0.7%"
X Link 2025-01-31T22:50Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"So far Chinas retaliation to US tariffs (10% on $20bn of US exports versus US 10% tariff on $430bn of Chinese imports) looks designed to leave room for negotiation. Long way to go on the tariff war though"
X Link 2025-02-04T23:22Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Trumps 25% tariff on alum & steel: In [----] Aust alum & steel exports to US were $808m. Hopefully we get an exemption as we have trade deficit with US but maybe not = bad for Aust producers but at just 0.03% of GDP trivial macro impact. Real risk for Aust is reduced global trade"
X Link 2025-02-10T03:27Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.3% US shares -0.3% after initially -1.1% with exp inflation US [--] yr yld +9bp to 4.62% w higher inflation Oil -2.7% to $71.2 w US/RU agreeing to Ukraine talks Gold +0.1% to $2902.4 Iron ore +1.2% to $107.7 Bitcoin $97.5k ASX futures +0.05% $A [-----] w $US flat"
X Link 2025-02-12T21:32Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"US Jan CPI +0.5%m/3%y core +0.4%m/3.3%y Both a bit stronger than expected with higher energy & food but also used cars airfares & insurance Goods inflation easing up just as tariffs come Core PCE may be lower at 0.3%m But this will keep the Fed cautious and on hold"
X Link 2025-02-12T21:42Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +1.7% US shares +1% Nas +1.5% as Trump moving to reciprocal tariffs but maybe not till post [--] Apr = room for negotiation US [--] yr yld -9bp to 4.53% Oil +0.3% to $71.4 Gold +0.4% to $2929 Iron ore -0.7% to $107 Bitcoin $96.4 ASX futures +1% $A [------] w $US -0.7%"
X Link 2025-02-13T21:14Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Weekly economic & market update - exploding straws; more tariffs; does the GST make Aust vulnerable; shares at record highs; Aust earnings results so far; RBA to cautiously cut; Valentine's Day Weekly-Market-Update-14-02-2025 - AMP https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-14-02-2025 https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-14-02-2025"
X Link 2025-02-14T07:04Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Mixed US data Retail sales -0.9%mom with ex auto & gas -0.5%m much exp even with upward revisions possibly reflecting weather fires & pullback after strong mths IP +0.5%mom exp Import prices exp with components pointing to core PCE of +0.26%m/2.5%yoy EvercoreISI charts"
X Link 2025-02-14T20:56Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.1% (+2.9% wk) US shares flat (+1.5% wk). Nasdaq +0.4% US [--] yr yld -5bp to 4.48% w weak Jan retail sales Oil -0.8% to $70.7 Gold -1.5% to $2883.7 Iron ore -0.2% to $106.8 Bitcoin $97.4k ASX futures -0.6% $A [------] with $US -0.5% (Bloomberg chart)"
X Link 2025-02-14T21:46Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Chinas population is continuing to fall. (Chart via The Daily Shot)"
X Link 2025-02-14T23:11Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 75%=final 72%Feb norm 67% Mel 70%=final 66%Feb norm 65% Clearances are continuing to get a boost from expectations for an imminent rate cut particularly in Sydney. So far the bounce has come on low volumes altho they are rising. #ausecon"
X Link 2025-02-15T07:26Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.65% US shares closed futures +0.2% Ger [--] yr yld +6bp on expectations increased EU defence spending will boost gov borrowing Oil +0.9% to $71.4 Gold +0.4% to $2896.6 Iron ore -0.5% to $106.3 Gold $96k ASX futures +0.3% $A [-----] with $US index flat"
X Link 2025-02-17T21:01Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"RBA cut to 4.1% as expected citing inflation easing a little faster than expected & more confidence its moving back to target But it was a cautious cut with upside risks to infl & a tight labour mkt We expect RBA to hold in Apr & cut again in May & Aug taking cash rate to 3.6%"
X Link 2025-02-18T03:53Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"RBA revised down slightly to 2.7% its trimmed mean inflation for this year and sees it staying at that level = hence its caution Now sees slightly lower unemp but still sees wages growth slowing to 3.1% next yr The cash rate is based on mkt pricing not an RBA forecast"
X Link 2025-02-18T03:58Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.25% US shares +0.2% to new high Nasdaq +0.1% US [--] yr yld +7bp to 4.55% Oil +0.6% to $71.8 Gold +1.4% to $2935.3 Iron ore +0.8% to $107.1 Bitcoin $94.9k ASX futures -0.02% $A [------] with $US index +0.2%"
X Link 2025-02-18T22:10Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"US Feb Empire manufacturing index bounced back to 5.7but its very volatile month to month Feb NAHB home builder index fell to [--] with concerns about the impact of tariffs on costs (Bloomberg charts)"
X Link 2025-02-18T22:13Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"No surprises from the RBNZ which cut by 0.5% to 3.75% with dovish guidance. Expect a cut to 3% or lower this year. It basically overtightened and is now having to correct"
X Link 2025-02-19T02:37Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -1.3% US shares +0.2% Nas +0.1%.w Fed mins showing Fed retains easing bias but in no hurry wanting more disinflation US [--] yr yld -2bp to 4.53% Oil +0.7% to $72.3 Gold +0.03% to $2936.3 Iron ore flat at $107.1 Bitcoin $96k ASX futures -0.5% $A [-----] w $US +0.2%"
X Link 2025-02-19T21:16Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Another strong Aust jobs report for Jan with employment +44k & record participation & share of population employed. Unemployment rose 0.1% to 4.1% but remains low. However with wages grth slowing this is not a threat to inflation & should not be a concern to the RBA"
X Link 2025-02-20T01:12Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.1% US shares -0.4% Nasdaq -0.5% as Walmart expresses uncertainty about consumer spending US [--] yr yld -3bp to 4.5% Oil +0.4% to $72.6 Gold +0.05% to $2937.6 Iron ore +0.6% to $107.8 Bitcoin $98.4K ASX futures +0.2% $A [------] with $US -0.7%"
X Link 2025-02-20T21:14Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"There are too many tax brackets in US but this is what should be happening in Australiaie indexing tax brackets to inflation (preferably the 2.5% target). Would remove remove bracket creep and the lie of politicians giving tax cuts when they are just giving bracket creep back"
X Link 2025-02-20T21:27Z 35.9K followers, 23.4K engagements
"RBA Governor Bullock reiterated the Boards caution about prospects for further policy easing but will be guided by data and its assessment of risks"
X Link 2025-02-20T22:55Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"China new property sales running [----] levels existing property sales running above [----] & [----] levels. Traffic congestion is running below normal. China steel demand is now running [----] levels altho this may be a catchup after weakness earlier this year. (Goldman Sachs charts)"
X Link 2025-02-21T08:49Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.3% (+0.3% wk) US shares -1.7% (-1.7% wk) w Trumps hit to consumer conf & PMIs & option expiries US [--] yr yld -8bp to 4.43% Oil -3.1% to $70.3 Gold -0.03% to $2937.9 Iron ore -0.05% to $107.6 Bitcoin $95.2k ASX futures -0.8% $A [-----] w $US +0.3% Bloomberg chart"
X Link 2025-02-21T22:09Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"US Uni Mich consumer sentiment down on concerns re Trumps policies [--] yr inflation expectations unchanged at 4.3% But 5-10 yr infl expectations up to 3.5% - highest since 1995this will add to Fed concerns Trumps tariffs may de anchor low inflation expectations Bloomberg charts"
X Link 2025-02-21T22:14Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"US Jan existing home sales -4.9%mom remaining low. (Bloomberg chart)"
X Link 2025-02-21T22:15Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"The G3 composite PMI fell further in Feb driven by a slump in the US as Trumps policies impact costs and policy uncertainty. New orders and employment fell - notably in the US. G3 input prices rose but output prices fell"
X Link 2025-02-22T00:21Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 71%=final 68%Feb norm 67% Mel 67%=final 64%Feb norm 65% Down a bit from last wk but clearances got a boost from anticipation of the RBA rate cut particularly in Sydney. So far the bounce has come on low volumes but they r rising #ausecon"
X Link 2025-02-22T11:07Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.4% US shares -0.5% after initially +0.5%with Nas -1.2% & Trump saying expects 25% tariffs on Can & Mex to go ahead US [--] yr yld -3bp to 4.4% Oil +0.7% to $70.8 Gold +0.5% to $2051.4 Iron ore +0.05% to $107.6 Bitcoin $94.3k ASX futures -0.8% $A [-----] w $US flat"
X Link 2025-02-24T21:35Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.1% US shares -0.5% Nas -1.35%.consumer confidence down on tariffs US [--] yr yld -10bp to 4.3%mkt concerned about grth Oil -2.5% to $69 Gold -1.3% to $2924.2 Iron ore -0.3% to $ [-----] Bitcoin $88.3k down w shares ASX futures -0.3% $A [------] w $US -0.2%"
X Link 2025-02-25T21:53Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"More good news on inflation with the Jan CPI holding at 2.5%yoy. Electricity prices +8.9%mom but in the month this was offset by slower inflation elsewhere. Trimmed mean inflation rose to 2.8%yoy with the trend remaining down. RBA on track for a May rate cut (possibly April)"
X Link 2025-02-26T01:07Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Daily CoreLogic data for February shows home price gains continuing to slow in Brisbane Adelaide and Perth but hooking back up in Sydney and Melbourne. The rate cut has clearly provided a boost to buyer demand. Chart shows Feb growth at a monthly rate"
X Link 2025-02-26T05:09Z 34.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Slashing fuel excise by 25c may be popular but its silly economic policy. Its only for [--] mths then up again & defeats the purpose of having fuel tax. Hopefully there is something more substantive in the Budget reply tonight eg indexing tax thresholds https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-ups-the-ante-on-tax-with-fuel-excise-cut-20250326-p5lmso https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-ups-the-ante-on-tax-with-fuel-excise-cut-20250326-p5lmso"
X Link 2025-03-26T22:41Z 35.9K followers, 28.1K engagements
"Aust March retail sales +0.3%mom/+4.3%yoy. Qld saw food & grocery sales boosted ahead of Cyclone Alfred but overall retail sales depressed. The rise was slightly less than expected and indicates that consumer spending remains subdued. (ABS charts)"
X Link 2025-05-02T02:16Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.4% with German shares -0.4% after Merz fails to win then wins Chancellor vote US shares -0.6% Nas -0.7% US [--] yr yld -5bp to 4.29% Oil +3.4% to $59.1 Gold +2.9% to $3431.4 Iron ore +2.3% to $99.4 Bitcoin $94.5k ASX futures -0.4% $A [------] with $US -0.3%"
X Link 2025-05-06T21:40Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.6% US shares +0.4% Nas +0.3% with Powell saying econ is still solid altho in no hurry to cut rates US [--] yr yld -2bp to 4.27% Oil -1.7% to $58.1 Gold -2% to $3363.5 Iron ore -0.4% to $99.05 Bitcoin $97.3k ASX futures +0.1% $A [------] with $US index +0.5%"
X Link 2025-05-07T22:06Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust retail sales -0.1%mom in Apr/+3.8%yoy. Mkt exp was +0.3%mom & this is surprisingly soft given the double Easter/Anzac long weekend & Queensland rebounding from Cyclone Alfred. Consumers are still struggling despite rate and tax cuts. This adds to the case for more RBA cuts"
X Link 2025-05-30T02:16Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"US initial jobless claims flat continuing claims +54k adding to evidence the labour mkt is softening May producer price inflation weaker than expected with core +0.1%/3%yoy Good news for Fed but its likely to remain on hold for now ahead of Q3 cuts EvercoreISI & Bloomberg charts"
X Link 2025-06-12T22:57Z 35.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust June household spending +0.5%mom/4.8%yoy continuing a modest acceleration. The mthly rise was helped by EOFY sales in furnishings hhold equipment & clothing. June qtr volumes +0.7%qoq but with much of that coming from Qld post Cyclone Alfred. Suggests stronger Q2 GDP grth"
X Link 2025-08-05T09:50Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust to axe another [---] nuisance tariffs eg on tyres & TVs. These are usually 2% & dont raise much tax but removing them will save $157m in biz compliance. Dont expect a big drop in prices but great to see Australia going in a sensible direction on trade in contrast to the US"
X Link 2025-08-28T03:46Z 35.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.5% US shares +0.8% Nasdaq +0.7% as elevated but mostly in line core CPI reinforces expectations for Fed rate cuts US [--] yr yld -2bp to 4.02% Oil -1.2% to $62.4 Gold -0.2% to $3634 Iron ore -1% to $105.3 Bitcoin $114.3k ASX futures +0.5% $A [-----] with $US -0.3%"
X Link 2025-09-11T20:57Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust population grth slowed to 0.5%q/1.6%y in the Mar qtr. This is down from a peak of 2.5%y in the Sept qtr [----]. Net migration has slowed from a record peak of 556k over the yr to Sept qtr [----] to 341k but is still relatively hi. Pop grth is strongest in WA at 2.3%y v Tas 0.2%y"
X Link 2025-09-18T07:18Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.4% US shares +0.4% Nasdaq +0.3%. US govt still heading into a partial shutdown US [--] yr yld +1bp to 4.15% Oil -1.7% to $62.4 Gold +0.7% to $3859 Iron ore -1.8% to $103.55 Bitcoin $114.4K ASX futures -0.1% $A [------] with $US index -0.2%"
X Link 2025-09-30T21:30Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.4% with French shares -1.4% on latest political turmoil US shares +0.4% Nasdaq +0.7% US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.15% Oil +1.3% to $61.7 Gold +1.9% to $3961 Iron ore +0.3% to $104.1 Bitcoin $125.2k.making a new record hi ASX futures +0.1% $A [------] w $US +0.3%"
X Link 2025-10-06T21:20Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Australian Westpac/MI consumer confidence -3.5% to a soft [----] reflecting higher inflation & last weeks more hawkish RBA commentary. Perceptions of family finances fell with the time to buy major items also down. Unemployment expectations fell but r well up from their [----] lows"
X Link 2025-10-07T01:12Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.3% US shares -0.4% Nasdaq -0.7% US [--] yr yld -3bp to $4.13% Oil +0.6% to $62 Gold +0.5% to $3982.2 Iron ore flat at $104.1 Bitcoin $122.2k ASX futures -0.01% $A [------] with $US index +0.4%"
X Link 2025-10-07T20:45Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.6% US shares +0.6% Nasdaq +1.1% with Fed minutes providing no hawkish surprises US [--] yr yld 0.2bp to 4.12% Oil +0.5% to $62.4 Gold +1.5% to $4043.6 Iron ore -0.1% to $104 Bitcoin $123.3k ASX futures +0.4% $A [------] with $US index +0.1%"
X Link 2025-10-08T20:58Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"I had a great chat with Mark Bouris on the Australian property market interest rates tax government spending and lots of other things. "5% deposit is ridiculous" Mark Bouris & Shane Oliver - Y Home Loans https://yhomeloans.com.au/videos/mark-bouris-shane-oliver/ https://yhomeloans.com.au/videos/mark-bouris-shane-oliver/"
X Link 2025-10-08T21:19Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.4% US shares -0.3% Nasdaq -0.1% US [--] yr yld +2bp to 4.14% Oil -1.4% to $61.5 Gold -1.7% to $3976.2 Iron ore +1.3% to $105.35 Bitcoin $121.2k ASX futures -0.4% $A [------] with $US index +0.4%"
X Link 2025-10-09T21:11Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -1.5% (-1.8% wk) US shares -2.7% (-2.4% wk) w Trump +100% tariffs on China after China rare earths controls from [--] Nov US [--] yr yld -11bp to 4.03% Oil -4.2% to $58.9 Gold +1% to $4018 Iron ore +0.8% to $105.8 Bitcoin $113k ASX futures -0.9% $A [------] w $US -0.7%"
X Link 2025-10-10T22:32Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"US Uni Michigan consumer confidence little changed at [--] [--] year ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.6% 5-10 year ahead inflation expectations unchanged at a still elevated 3.7% (Bloomberg chart)"
X Link 2025-10-10T22:34Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.7% US shares +1.6% Nasdaq +2.2% with de-escalatory rhetoric re trade from US & China US [--] yr yld closed at 4.03% futures little changed Oil +1.4% to $59.7 Gold +2.3% to $4109.1 Iron ore +0.3% to $106.1 Bitcoin $115.7k ASX futures +0.3% $A [------] w $US +0.2%"
X Link 2025-10-13T20:39Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.3% US shares -0.2% Nas -0.8% with US/Ch trade spat continuing but Powell on track for Oct rate cut & ending QT US [--] yr yld flat at 4.03% Oil -1.7% to $58.6 Gold +0.8% to $4142.9 Iron ore -0.3% to $105.8 Bitcoin $113k ASX futures +0.8% $A [------] with $US -0.1%"
X Link 2025-10-14T21:11Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +1% US shares +0.4% after earlier +1.4%helped by bank earnings but volatile session on trade uncertainty. Nas +0.7% US [--] yr yld -1bp to 4.03% Oil +0.2% to $58.8 Gold +1.6% to $4201.1 Iron ore -0.5% to $105.3 Bitcoin $111.2k ASX futures +0.1% $A [-----] w $US -0.3%"
X Link 2025-10-15T20:59Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust Sept emp +14.9k unemp rising to 4.5% after Aug revised to 4.3%. This was worse than exp with unemployment in rising trend & now above RBA forecasts (for 4.3%). It adds to confidence in our base case for a Nov rate cut. Q3 CPI is now key but the hurdle may be a bit lower now"
X Link 2025-10-16T01:05Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"HIA new home sales +26% in September helped by the fall in rates and anticipation of the expanded low deposit scheme for FHBs (with a third of new homes built by/for FHBs). This is a good sign but it has to be sustained"
X Link 2025-10-16T01:36Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Australia jobs growth is slowing down softer job openings warn of a further slowing ahead unemployment is tracing out a rising trend and is now above RBA forecasts and rising unemployment tends to see slowing wages growth The money mkt is back to 70% prob of a Nov rate cut"
X Link 2025-10-16T02:45Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.8% US shares -0.6% with concerns about bad loans at [--] regional banks to same borrowers with allegations of fraud US [--] yr yld -5bp to 3.97% Oil -2.3% to $57.4 Gold +2.8% to $4326.6 Iron ore flat at $105.3 Bitcoin $108k ASX futures -0.3% $A [------] w $US -0.3%"
X Link 2025-10-16T21:18Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Weekly economic and market update - US-China trade escalation; Gold up/Bitcoin down; RBA cautious but weakening jobs supports Nov rate cut; Aust housing shortfall v the housing accord target https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-17-10-2025 https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/weekly-market-update-17-10-2025"
X Link 2025-10-17T08:22Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.9% (+0.9% wk) US shares +0.5% (+1.7% wk) after Trump expressed optimism re China trade talks & regional banks rose US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.01% Oil +0.1% to $57.5 Gold -1.7% to $4252 Iron ore -0.7% to $104.7 Bitcoin $107.4 ASX futures -0.1% $A [------] w $US +0.2%"
X Link 2025-10-17T22:07Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"NZ Sept qtr CPI infl was +1%qoq/3%yoy (largely in line with RBNZ & mkt) with the rise being partly seasonal. Indicators of core inflation were flat to down. This along with weak economic conditions leaves the RBNZ on track to cut again next month. (Macquarie Macro Strategy chart)"
X Link 2025-10-19T23:52Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Relative Return Insider: Gold and crypto take different paths amid USChina tension https://www.investordaily.com.au/podcast/57986-relative-return-insider-gold-and-crypto-take-different-paths-amid-us-china-tension https://www.investordaily.com.au/podcast/57986-relative-return-insider-gold-and-crypto-take-different-paths-amid-us-china-tension"
X Link 2025-10-20T00:33Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"China Sept qtr GDP +1.1%q & slowed to 4.8%y slightly exp. Activity data was mixed with stronger IP but slower retail sales & falling inv. Grth likely remain on track for around or just below 5% this yr with more targeting stimulus. Prop pricessales & investment remain a drag"
X Link 2025-10-20T03:01Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +1.3% US shares +1.1% helped by good earnings Nas +1.4% US [--] yr yld -3bp to 3.98% Oil -0.1% to $57.4 Gold +2.4% to $4356.3 Iron ore -0.1% to $104.5 Bitcoin $111.1k ASX futures +0.5% $A $0.651 with $US index +0.1%"
X Link 2025-10-20T21:19Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Investment cycles - what are they and why you need to be aware of them Oliver's Insights - Investment cycles - AMP https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/olivers-insights-investment-cycles https://www.amp.com.au/resources/insights-hub/olivers-insights-investment-cycles"
X Link 2025-10-21T05:15Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.1% US shares flat Nasdaq -0.2% US [--] yr yld -3bp to 3.95% Oil -0.1% to $57.4 Gold -5.9% to $4100some pull back/correction was getting overdue as the recent run had become more speculative. Iron ore +0.5% to $105.1 Bitcoin $$108.2k $A [------] with $US flat"
X Link 2025-10-22T01:52Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.8% US shares -0.5% Nas -0.9% with reports Trump admin mulling curbs on software exports to China US [--] yr yld +1bp to 4.96% Oil +5.3% to $60.5 with new Russian oil sanctions Gold -0.2% to $4091 Iron ore +0.2% to $105.3 Bitcoin $108.5k $A [------] w $US +0.1%"
X Link 2025-10-23T05:25Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"UK Sept core CPI inflation surprisingly slipped to 3.5%yoy not enough to bring on a BoE rate cut next month but still likely by early next year. (Bloomberg chart)"
X Link 2025-10-23T05:28Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"After its huge run gold was overbought & very specy (eg queue in Martin Place) & due a correction which could go for a while yet. Fundamental drivers like hi public debt risk govts try to inflate out of it & geo threats remain tho & versus past bubbles its a bit of a non-event"
X Link 2025-10-23T05:39Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.5% US shares +0.6% Nasdaq +0.9% US [--] yr yld -6bp to 4% Oil +1.7% to $61.5 Gold +0.3% to $4104.6 Iron ore -0.2% to $105.1 Bitcoin $111.2k $A 0.65"
X Link 2025-10-24T04:47Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Australias composite PMI for October was little changed with manufacturing down but services up. Readings for new orders and employment weakened. Price indicators softened which is a good sign for inflation"
X Link 2025-10-24T06:28Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"The US September qtr earnings reporting season is about 30% done. While Netflix and Tesla disappointed about 85% have beat expectations well above the norm of 76%. Earnings growth is on track for about 10%yoy compared to consensus expectations for around 7% a few weeks ago"
X Link 2025-10-24T06:37Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"The oil price is up on Russian oil sanctions but only to where it was [--] weeks ago. Since Aust petrol prices lag the oil price by [--] weeks they didnt catch up to the fall below $US60 so there is no justification for a rise in petrol prices on the back of the bounce in oil prices"
X Link 2025-10-24T07:07Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"US Sep core CPI +0.2%mom/3%yoy slightly exp. Solid rises in airfares furniture & clothing but with an offset from slowing shelter & tariff impacts still look modest so far. Implies core PCE 0.2%m/2.8%y. Leaves Fed on track to cut next wk & Dec. (Bloomberg & EvercoreISI charts)"
X Link 2025-10-24T14:17Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.1% (+1.2% wk) US shares +0.8% (+1.9% wk) as slightly lower than expected CPI supports Fed rate cuts. Nas +1.2% US [--] yr yld flat at 4% Oil flat at $61.5 Gold +0.2% to $4113.1 Iron ore +0.1% to $105.2 Bitcoin $111.3k ASX futures +0.3% $A [-----] with $US flat"
X Link 2025-10-25T04:53Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"US October composite PMI rose with services and manufacturing up. Price pressures fell but remain elevated for input prices (tariff related)"
X Link 2025-10-25T05:59Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 70%=final 69%Oct norm 63% Mel 67%=final 65%Oct norm 64% Clearances slowed a bit more esp in Mel. It could be partly seasonal. Lower ratesthe expanded FHB 5% deposit scheme & constrained supply should see clearances remain solid. #ausecon"
X Link 2025-10-25T09:26Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.6% US shares +1.2% with +ve news regarding US/Ch trade deal. Nas +1.9% US [--] yr yld -2bp to 4.98% Oil -0.5% to $61.2 Gold -3.3% to $3977.5 Iron ore +0.5% to $105.7 Bitcoin $114k $A [-----] with relatively hawkish comments by RBA Gov US/Ch optimism & $US -0.4%"
X Link 2025-10-28T04:58Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Relatively hawkish comments by RBA Gov Bullock leave much riding on Sep qtr trimmed mean infl: +0.6%q would be in line w RBA forecasts & imply a cut +0.7% would be close enough to allow a cut +0.8% would leave it a v close call +0.9% would be a material miss & likely see a hold"
X Link 2025-10-28T05:13Z 35.6K followers, 10.7K engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.1% US shares +0.2% Nasdaq +0.8% US [--] yr yld flat at 3.98% Oil -1.8% to $60.1 Gold -0.5% to $3956.5 Iron ore +0.1% to $105.8 Bitcoin $113k $A [------] with higher than expected Aust inflation"
X Link 2025-10-29T04:46Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Fed cut 0.25% to 3.75-4% as exp noting elevated infl but moderate grth & downside risks to employment rose. QT (or balance sheet runoff) to end on [--] Dec (after which securities will be purchased to offset maturing debt). Expect another cut in Dec (money mkt has 94% probability)"
X Link 2025-10-29T18:37Z 35.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares flat US shares flat were up slightly then fell as Powell said Dec not guaranteed (which is hardly surprising) US [--] yr yld +8bp to 4.06% Oil +0.2% to $60.2 Gold +0.5% to $3977.6 Iron ore +0.05% to $105.9 Bitcoin $109k $A 0.6594"
X Link 2025-10-30T04:43Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.1% US shares -1% Nasdaq -1.6%with a bit of sell on the fact after buying on the rumour of Fed rate cut and Trump/Xi deal US [--] yr yld +4bp to 4.1% Oil -0.1% to $60.1 Gold +0.6% to $4000.6 Iron ore -0.05% to $105.85 Bitcoin $110k $A 0.655"
X Link 2025-10-31T04:54Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.7% (-0.2% wk) US shares +0.3% (+0.7% wk).buoyed by earnings optimism constrained by Fed officials against latest cut US [--] yr yld -2bp to 4.08% Oil +0.7% to $61 Gold -0.5% to $4002.9 Iron ore +1.3% to $107 Bitcoin $110k ASX futures -0.1% $A [------] w $US +0.3%"
X Link 2025-11-01T04:58Z 35.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Australian housing credit growth is continuing to accelerated driven mainly by investors. If this continues it will increase the risk of another round of macro prudential controls to slow lending perceived to be risky"
X Link 2025-11-01T05:06Z 35.9K followers, 27.3K engagements
"Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 70%=final 68%Oct norm 63% Mel 68%=final 65%Oct norm 64% Clearances remain solid with expanded FHB 5% deposit scheme but have been slowing a bit over the last few wks reflecting talk of less rate cuts & some rise in listings. #ausecon"
X Link 2025-11-01T07:37Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"The Aust Melb Institutes Trimmed Mean Inflation rate remained around 2%yoy in October"
X Link 2025-11-03T06:02Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Australian home building approvals bounced 12% in September after some weak months but was mainly due to volatile unit approvals. Approvals are continuing to trend around [------] a year which is up from [----] low but well below the Housing Accord target for 240k homes a year"
X Link 2025-11-03T06:04Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Aust home prices saw their fastest monthly price rise in October since [----]. Rate cuts have clearly got their usual traction in the housing market"
X Link 2025-11-03T06:15Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.3% US shares +0.2% Nasdaq +0.5% US [--] yr yld +3bp to 4.11% Oil -0.2% to $60.9 Gold -0.3% to $3988.9 Iron ore -2.8% to $104.2 Bitcoin $106.8k $A 0.6534"
X Link 2025-11-04T05:00Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"RBA revised its inflation forecasts up again reflecting materially higher Sep qtr inflation I suspect the Sept qtr CPI exaggerated the upside (as in Q3 2023) & subsequent data will show lower infl & with subdued growth and higher unemployment will see the RBA cut again next yr"
X Link 2025-11-04T05:44Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares -0.3% US shares -1.2% Nasdaq -2% w valuation concerns. Shutdown now longest ever but signs of offramp after Dem election wins US [--] yr yld -4bp to 4.07% Oil -0.7% to $60.4 Gold -0.7% to $3960.2 Iron ore +0.1% to $104.3 Bitcoin $102.2k with risk off $A 0.6491"
X Link 2025-11-05T04:27Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Eurozone shares +0.2% US shares +0.4%. US [--] yr yld +7bp to 4.15%. Supreme Court questioning sceptical of IEEPA tariffs but decision unlikely till next yr & Trump has other ways to impose tariffs Oil -0.9% to $59.9 Gold -1.8% to $3988.9 Iron ore -0.05% $104.2 $103.2k $A 0.651"
X Link 2025-11-06T05:50Z 35.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Bank of England left rates on hold at 4% as widely expected but it was a dovish hold with a 5/4 vote with inflation is judged to have peaked and replacing its rate cutting guidance with :cautious and gradual to just gradual. Its likely to cut again in December"
X Link 2025-11-06T16:31Z 35.6K followers, [---] engagements
"US Oct job cuts up sharply on Challenger Gray & Christmas data adding to concerns about a weakening US jobs mkt & adding to Fed rate cut exps. Other jobs data is a bit more mixed with ADP up in Oct but trending softer & initial claims still low. (Bloomberg & EvercoreISI charts)"
X Link 2025-11-06T16:39Z 35.6K followers, [---] engagements
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