#  @SaItinerant RandomItinerantSA RandomItinerantSA posts on X about stocks, china, $mrvl, $kos the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1229687316018393094/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] +31% - [--] Month [-------] +4,354% - [--] Months [-------] +6,485% - [--] Year [---------] +3,783% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1229687316018393094/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -24% - [--] Months [---] +246% - [--] Year [---] +133% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1229687316018393094/followers)  - [--] Week [---] +0.88% - [--] Month [---] +1.60% - [--] Months [---] +30% - [--] Year [---] +59% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1229687316018393094/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [stocks](/list/stocks) [countries](/list/countries) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [currencies](/list/currencies) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [stocks](/topic/stocks), [china](/topic/china), [$mrvl](/topic/$mrvl), [$kos](/topic/$kos), [in the](/topic/in-the), [$bte](/topic/$bte), [ai](/topic/ai), [$baba](/topic/$baba), [$flnc](/topic/$flnc), [canada](/topic/canada) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@nuggetcapital](/creator/undefined) [@marketplunger1](/creator/undefined) [@gringoinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@pandawatch88](/creator/undefined) [@jenstilmanydots](/creator/undefined) [@aleabitoreddit](/creator/undefined) [@thelonginvest](/creator/undefined) [@finansmerak137](/creator/undefined) [@hfiresearch](/creator/undefined) [@businesscycle](/creator/undefined) [@insaneanalyst](/creator/undefined) [@valuenotdeadyet](/creator/undefined) [@tmtbreakout](/creator/undefined) [@gabcasla](/creator/undefined) [@irajoseph](/creator/undefined) [@votebrucenl](/creator/undefined) [@freightalley](/creator/undefined) [@rks2305](/creator/undefined) [@minnvestor](/creator/undefined) [@manitobacanuck](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL)](/topic/$mrvl) [Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS)](/topic/$kos) [Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE)](/topic/$bte) [Alibaba Group (BABA)](/topic/$baba) [Fluence Energy, Inc. (FLNC)](/topic/$flnc) [Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)](/topic/$adbe) [Better Home & Finance Holding Company Class A Common Stock (BETR)](/topic/$betr) [Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX)](/topic/$fcx) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/$btc) [Now Coin (NOW)](/topic/$now) [XPO LOGISTICS, INC. (XPO)](/topic/$xpo) [Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO)](/topic/$avgo) [Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock (LITE)](/topic/$lite) [Coherent Inc (COHR)](/topic/$cohr) [Strategy (MSTR)](/topic/$mstr) [Soil (SOIL)](/topic/$soil) [Whirlpool Corporation (WHR)](/topic/$whr) [Lyft, Inc. Class A Common Stock (LYFT)](/topic/$lyft) [RXO, Inc. (RXO)](/topic/$rxo) [APA Corp (US) (APA)](/topic/$apa) [Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (YUMC)](/topic/$yumc) [Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE)](/topic/$eose) [Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (IOVA)](/topic/$iova) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Dropbox, Inc. (DBX)](/topic/$dbx) [Noble Corporation (NE)](/topic/$ne) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/morgan-stanley) [Flare (FLR)](/topic/$flr) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG)](/topic/$sig) [GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO)](/topic/$gxo) [Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG)](/topic/$plug) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "@sunchartist It was clear to me when buying Country Garden stock back in October that despite what the bond market was saying BK would not happen. The govt would ensure that quality developers who had stayed within the 'red lines' would get whatever help they needed" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1634961333748891648) 2023-03-12T16:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@sunchartist Otherwise would look like Xi made a terrible policy mistake in RE crackdown. And property sector is too important to China's GDP to let the quality developers go bankrupt. The main concern i had was equity dilution through new share issuance. Fortunately it hasn't been too bad" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1634962171468865537) 2023-03-12T16:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ira_joseph Yes but it seems clear already that a growing number of less developed countries are not only importing LNG now but have plans to make gas an increasingly prominent part of their energy mix going forward. They say so in their energy policy announcements. (continued)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1682805793979248640) 2023-07-22T17:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ira_joseph A factor to bear in mind is that those countries are not currently able to sign longterm contracts for cheap(er) gas due to poor credit ratings. But in future they surely will once their development and ratings improve sufficiently" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1682805885511532544) 2023-07-22T17:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@allstarcharts Was/am surprised by this bull market sold a lot and raised cash last year but used this to load up on China tech and later American energy when they sold off hard. Feeling well positioned for what comes next" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1685643784837849088) 2023-07-30T18:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@allstarcharts Have also been benefitting from the "recession postponed" trade in the past couple of months where stocks that had sold off on recession fears have rebounded strongly. Been playing it with $EXPE $DBX $SIG its going great :)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1685644736147914752) 2023-07-30T18:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@VoteBruceNL Its harder for O&G producers to raise capital now compared to past - they are more focused on ROI. When share price is low then dividends & buybacks give better ROI for shareholders than investing in new production. (continued)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1690702488494837760) 2023-08-13T12:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@VoteBruceNL That's why the CEO of one of the producers (I think it was $FANG) when asked a couple of years ago what it would take for him to invest more to raise production answered "Seeing our share price go up"" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1690702647807078400) 2023-08-13T12:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@WallStreetSilv Also has big implications for warehousing logistics & trucking companies: they are the beneficiaries of more merchandise being sold online. Long $XPO and its spinoffs $GXO $RXO" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1692927477365281146) 2023-08-19T15:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Shubham97959957 @michaelxpettis Yes they should definitely do something like that. Funding to local govts to buy properties on the open market to stabilize prices. And loans to developers to complete current projects. I expect they'll do this eventually but waiting for more deleveraging first" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1695734685752865116) 2023-08-27T09:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Shubham97959957 @michaelxpettis Stabilizing the housing market is the key to recovery in China. 1/3 of Chinese households own [--] or more properties The negative wealth effect from declining property prices is what's stopping them from spending now" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1695736626989900112) 2023-08-27T09:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Finally $LNG is stepping up - continuing large storage surplus reductions thru shoulder season. At some point it will matter for #natgas price. In the meantime Oct - Jan spread is the most extreme in the past [--] years as if calamity is coming in Oct" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1696548509640782219) 2023-08-29T15:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@JenscapeRsrch $BETR is actually pretty interesting at $1. I bought a little. They have a lot of cash to weather the storm now. Pent up demand for housing/mortgages is huge will get released at some point. (And yes i know you are referring to something completely different ;)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1697287624749363447) 2023-08-31T16:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@andrepaltry The bearish paper traders are active in cash/spot price trading too. And the physical gas traders don't need to buy the gas first before selling the winter futures. They can wait to buy it later let the paper traders knock down the price more first" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1698320316358111465) 2023-09-03T13:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The latest winter forecast from ECMWF. Looking good for the #natgas bulls. H/T @judah47" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1699369406403600749) 2023-09-06T10:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "It's clear now that #natgas storage is not going to fill by EOS = storage operators & physical gas traders must be super motivated to buy & store gas now while selling it forward in the winter months to take advantage of the most extreme contango in the past [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1699392409950736867) 2023-09-06T12:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NattyGasIce @kentfunny2021 It's more bullish for Oct & spot price. But Nov should also benefit from the "reduce the contango" effect of these trades. However this continues to be overwhelmed by the paper trading of the bearish natgas pros who think that the contango should be even more extreme" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1699446132571869308) 2023-09-06T15:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MichaelAArouet This is another reason: Compared to previous tightening cycles the real Fed rate is very low (so far):" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1700869722357817848) 2023-09-10T13:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "No one seems to know for sure why #natgas cash & front month are rallying hard today. I don't either but the most extreme contango of the past [--] years sure does create an attractive arbitrage opp for phys gas players given the excess storage available. maybe it's that" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1701668959500787979) 2023-09-12T18:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@PaulSaladino7 @ZhaiXiang5 @magmadoctor @RnaudBertrand I agree. And also the Taiwanese system based on free market capitalism has giving much better results than the state-controlled system in the PRC. Taiwan is more prosperous higher median wage etc. And they know the PRC will subvert it if they can just like in HK" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1702465121363112379) 2023-09-14T23:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This chart from @ericnuttall is nice confirmation of the enormous FCF yields of $CPE & $BTE with #oil at $90+. Which is exactly why I loaded up on these two during the earlier selloff :) Although my biggest O&G position W&T Offshore $WTI is even better IMHO. #oott" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1704831470895018189) 2023-09-21T12:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ShepRules But this year EOS storage is on track for [----] or less by EOS leaving 200+Bcf excess storage for playing the arbitrage game. The storage operators & other physical gas players certainly can take advantage of this and no doubt they already are. (continued)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1705178926744752243) 2023-09-22T11:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ShepRules But the buying & selling forward of gas by the physical gas players is so far being overwhelmed by the ongoing and ramping shorting by the clique of bearish pros who dominate the market. Their game is shorting the ETFs so they do what profits them in this game" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1705179427502719003) 2023-09-22T11:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@harrison_honor It's a hidden gem :) Esp. if you are bullish on the longterm outlook for natgas since that's 50% of their production. Plenty of room to grow through acquisitions of small under-capitalized operators in their neighborhood in GOM" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1709234113901973784) 2023-10-03T15:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Renewable energy stocks been beaten up recently - time to go value hunting :) Putting politics aside and just focusing on the economics. $DAR looks good with EV 7x [----] guided EBITDA. But $AMTX is even better. (continued)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1709250287880503338) 2023-10-03T16:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@VoteBruceNL Good company but too popular and expensive for my tastes. The stock has been performing well over many years will probably continue. Has been doubling every [--] years but I target ones that can double in [--] years or less (with more risk of course)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1709290355299152249) 2023-10-03T19:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@VoteBruceNL Both look interesting. Based on a quick look $PNE seems like a stable low-cost high-dividend player; modest recent growth & torque to higher NG prices. 15% FCF yield - good but possible to find better. $PNG looks like a niche player - lot of research needed to assess that one" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1709305513681531170) 2023-10-03T20:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@JavierBlas Lol. Oil price was higher [--] years ago. How much did it "inflate US interest rates" that time Apparently it's written somewhere in the US Constitution that oil price should remain below $100 forever while all other goods & service prices rise over time" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1709758359350698399) 2023-10-05T02:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Missing from discussions of renewable fuels vs fossil is what happens when fossil fuel prices higher in future due to increasingly limited capacity to increase prodx. E.g. $150 the new normal for oil. Renewable fuels will be more than competitive then" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1709939001950646643) 2023-10-05T14:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The formerly high-flying mortgage tech startup $BETR has been pulverized after going public recently. Frozen housing market killing their business for now but they have a big cash pile to weather the storm. (continued)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1710263676119478460) 2023-10-06T12:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I'm more focused on what the current housing market is doing to $BETR's less well-capitalized non-bank competitors. A potential 100-bagger in future if things go their way when the housing market eventually recovers" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1710264343370362936) 2023-10-06T12:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Here's an interview with $BETR's CFO discussing their current situation & outlook:" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1710264657154547779) 2023-10-06T12:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Noalgos I agree about $DAR bought some shares earlier & added more today. Normally I prefer cheap cash flow in the present vs growth without profits. but the potential of $AMTX is too good to ignore so bought some of that one too (earlier around $4)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1712531906724770258) 2023-10-12T18:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Ramped up my #natgas bet today. While it's still too early to say how the winter weather will be @judah47's latest blog gives indications it *could* be a cold one. Market currently assigning zero probability for this. - mispriced risk-reward" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1714274452161331627) 2023-10-17T13:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Crucial thing to watch this week is the snow cover extent in Siberia. If it can ramp up to normal or above that will significantly increase the cold artic airmass & chance for weakened PV - colder winter outlook as discussed in @nynjpaweather's forecast & @judah47's blog (2/3)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1716334057595015293) 2023-10-23T06:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Here's a resource for following the Siberian snow cover extent (SCE) with daily updates: (3/3)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1716334639252643971) 2023-10-23T06:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@macastel3 This suggests that Alibaba will be less impacted by Pinduoduo in China once the Chinese economy recovers and consumers there become less price sensitive (i.e. return to their previous spending habits)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1718973617986490517) 2023-10-30T12:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@PaulAndreola China/HK equities followed by renewables esp. wind/solar/hydrogen" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1719755692423422336) 2023-11-01T16:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@thematrix1337 @GlennLuk As an investor in Chinese stocks (20% of my portfolio) I'm actually more concerned with the concrete consequences. Private companies are being coerced to align with state goals and devote resources to it. They're becoming state-controlled to an increasing extent" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1720020448485036298) 2023-11-02T10:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@macastel3 From what you have written previously it seems some high-end fashion-connected Western brands are continuing to thrive in China e.g. Lululemon. Why is Apple down while Lulu continues to thrive" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1720411364563583046) 2023-11-03T12:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ira_joseph The shale producers are no longer free to be the epic destroyers of wealth & value that they were in the past. Investors have them on a leash; also their capacity to ramp prodx is becoming increasingly limited" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1721500307564474484) 2023-11-06T12:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@mikesimonsen Buffett was talking about buying when prices are crashing because of fear. Doesn't seem to apply to the present housing market. But anyway yes I did what he said and bought some $BETR stock (mortgage issuer). Just a small position :)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1722730005854298590) 2023-11-09T21:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@FreightAlley In Maersk's case a big factor was overcapacity built up over the past few years that is now unwinding. To what extent can the U.S. trucking data be explained by unwinding of overcapacity with previous high demand changing to reduced (but not necessarily recessionary) demand" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1724030724737843359) 2023-11-13T11:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@FreightAlley To what extent is the current collapse a flushing out of excess capacity vs recessionary deterioration in the economy My $XPO stock has been going up and $ODFL has been holding up quite well. I guess they are beneficiaries when smaller players collapse" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1726182039052079166) 2023-11-19T10:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@AB32432219 I think the most important data to compare with 09-10 would be storage surplus/deficit in terms of days supply. But I'm lacking the motivation to go digging for that so far. will just assume that its in the same ballpark as now" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1727029193744236875) 2023-11-21T18:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@EnergyCynic As others have said a thesis that relies on discipline by the shale players won't end well. But the Saudis know this and they wouldn't have gone down this path unless they were sure that shale production is peaking & limited capacity to ramp up more" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1730258174576591056) 2023-11-30T16:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@degiorgiod @andrepaltry I'm not degenerating them instead I'm elevating the person I follow based on his credentials which I expect (but don't know for sure) are superior to the credentials of those who work at the met shops" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1730939067054088378) 2023-12-02T13:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@campbe14425505 @EnergyCynic If WTI stays low I expect Biden will get back into enforcement mode with the Iran sanctions. Otherwise he will be hammered about this by the GOP in the election campaign and he surely knows that. Americans know Iran is sponsoring & encouraging those militants" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1731543775779144088) 2023-12-04T05:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@USAEnergyNatGas Suggest you pay more attention to the winter weather outlook from 4th week Dec onwards and bear in mind that Citadel HF has $62B AUM and a fondness for commodity trading esp. #natgas. They can blow up your shorts at any time if they feel so inclined" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1732490925027512789) 2023-12-06T20:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@corgipapi1 @USAEnergyNatGas FWIW I respect him a lot based on his track record and professionalism. But have a different & bullish view based on the weather outlook this winter. The bearish groupthink of the pros & their mets is leading them astray regarding this IMHO" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1732502824997806519) 2023-12-06T20:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "For those following this topic the debate between @jhomenuk and @nynjpaweather in the reply thread of this post is worth checking out: (2/2) #natgas" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1733724881903313088) 2023-12-10T05:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TheLongInvest It's a big mystery for investors & shareholders why $BABA management refuses to implement a serious buyback program in their current situation where their cash & FCF are so much while the stock is so beaten down. Their refusal to do this sends a strange & worrying signal" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1733833566180749409) 2023-12-10T12:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@ValueNotDeadYet @TheLongInvest If you are referring to the VIE structure there's so much misunderstanding of that. $Baba shareholders own a stake in the Cayman Islands-registered holding company which in turn owns directly and entirely the core e-commerce businesses (Tmall & Taobao) that generate . (1/n)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1733860401648107965) 2023-12-10T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ValueNotDeadYet @TheLongInvest the bulk of the company's profits at present. The holding company (& hence shareholders) also owns the cash on balance sheet. VIE structure is only used for businesses in "sensitive domains" direct foreign ownership is forbidden. (Baba is officially a foreign co in China.) (2/n)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1733861598933188738) 2023-12-10T14:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CarnivoreTradrZ @TheLongInvest That's one possible explanation. Here are two more: 1) Xi told them to only return a small amount of $ to shareholders. 2) Management are just too clueless to know that a serious buyback program is what they need to do in this situation" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1733944369835905473) 2023-12-10T20:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "As for how we get out of the upcoming Pacific jet torch pattern later this looks like the way: (3/4)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1734093134139888007) 2023-12-11T06:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "For reference here are the [--] U.S. weather regimes. The Pacific Trough is the upcoming one with the jetstream torch and the Greenland High is the one we probably transition to afterwards - a much better one :) (4/4)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1734095047694708868) 2023-12-11T06:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Something to cheer up the #natgas bulls. This is [---] hours out so can't really be taken seriously as a prediction of what will happen more an indication of what could happen. But still" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1735640411031666930) 2023-12-15T12:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Can add that this is the expected transition from the Pacific Trough regime (which we are in now) to the Greenland High regime (which the forecast above shows) when the PV weakens (as it is predicted to at the end of Dec)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1735655203247133104) 2023-12-15T13:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@CelsiusEnergyFM The positive price action after the open shows the market is looking beyond Dec now and seeing more bullish weather next month" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1736644528734699998) 2023-12-18T07:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ValueNotDeadYet Baba and Tencent are my main ones also have Pinduoduo $PDD. Tencent also v. cheap but need to look beyond the P/E to see it bc a lot of the value is in their investments in other co's" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1737088750898016385) 2023-12-19T12:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@michaelxpettis @markets But don't forget that the Chinese govt (or regional govt's) control the property prices and keep them high by limiting the amount of land released for property development. This is one of the ways China transfers wealth from individuals to the state" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1737394283064471699) 2023-12-20T08:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@dalibali2 You will regret shorting my $LULU. Wishing you good luck with the others though" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1737435896511959050) 2023-12-20T11:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Trinhnomics Great thread thanks Sounds like you see China improving in [----]. Bullish on China stocks" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1737824520336277955) 2023-12-21T13:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ZmansEnrgyBrain This is hideous My worst fear realized as a $CPE shareholder. The buyout premium is a joke. The shareholders need to block this. We don't care about the multiple just wanted the huge FCF yield $CPE would generate in future with oil at $100" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1742916482726776963) 2024-01-04T14:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@USAEnergyNatGas If the storage surplus is completely wiped out by the end of March what price do you think the front month should be at that time" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1743262923810828658) 2024-01-05T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@dailydirtnap Olof Palme was assassinated gunned down in the street. Is that what you're referring to with "Sweden eventually figured it out"" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1744925613876715604) 2024-01-10T03:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "#natgas With the way the winter is shaping up looks like the storage surplus could be completely wiped out by the end of March. What price should April & [----] strip trade at if that happens Seems to me should be at least $4 to support normal drilling program in Hville" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745056932669554949) 2024-01-10T12:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@HFI_Research Tencent is even cheaper than it looks since a lot of the value is in their investments which is not reflected in the P/E" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1747589838952698305) 2024-01-17T12:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@DiveBomb321 @HFI_Research It seems there are may traders looking at Tencent $TCEHY and $BABA these days and thinking they might "do a $META " ($85 to $360+ after a huge selloff). I'm not sure if that's bullish or bearish" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1747640830381482128) 2024-01-17T15:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Buying the capitulation selloff in $PLUG ahead of the business update next Tuesday. The latest earnings call indicated the update will be good this time including financing arranged & positive gross margin this year" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1747675388472680479) 2024-01-17T17:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Over the past few days $PLUG has become my biggest position. Can't resist a falling knife :) A very misunderstood company. Current outlook is ok & future prospects are great both for $PLUG and the #hydrogen industry in general" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1748552451240944120) 2024-01-20T03:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This was why I added to my $hnu position last Friday and again on Monday (the circled trades below). Now ramped to my max for risk-on in this trade :)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1750207618558357622) 2024-01-24T17:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Just to clarify "ramped to my max" doesn't mean all-in on this trade. It's just the maximum that I'm willing to risk on the widow maker" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1750209518242554328) 2024-01-24T17:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@JavierBlas Not only is his giving the Saudis the middle finger he is giving it to his shareholders too" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1753448713056555444) 2024-02-02T16:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Looks like China's stock market may have bottomed with a major low for the medium term and perhaps also for the long term. Absolute puke-fest in China. This is one of the few times the Shanghai Composite closed at a 3-year low and over the past [--] days an average of more than [--] stocks declined for every advancer. They bounced after the others but this is the Lucy-football of stock markets. https://t.co/TpX52SEpSd Absolute puke-fest in China. This is one of the few times the Shanghai Composite closed at a 3-year low and over the past [--] days an average of more than [--] stocks declined for every" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1753757784171274706) 2024-02-03T12:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@hussmanjp If you remove the "magnificent 7" and do the comparison for the remaining [---] stocks in the S&P500 how does it look then" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1755115241556623811) 2024-02-07T06:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "A big factor in the #natgas selloff yesterday was apparently the weather models pulling back from a major PV event in mid Feb. Well today the models are saying the PV event is back on the cards even more than before. So natgas regains yesterday's losses today" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1755154927876456927) 2024-02-07T09:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Holy_Helicity Rule nr [--] of knifecatching: Don't load the boat until there's a margin of safety (= an unsustainably low price). I've been a bit undisciplined with this one it's 15% of account now but still plenty of room for boat loading on a capitulation flush to $1.70-1.50 if it happens" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1755720527581503863) 2024-02-08T22:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Holy_Helicity It's starting to remind me of my recent knifecatching of $PLUG. Was down 20% at the bottom but good profits followed. Over the past few days $PLUG has become my biggest position. Can't resist a falling knife :) A very misunderstood company. Current outlook is ok & future prospects are great both for $PLUG and the #hydrogen industry in general. Over the past few days $PLUG has become my biggest position. Can't resist a falling knife :) A very misunderstood company. Current outlook is ok & future prospects are great both for $PLUG and the #hydrogen industry in general" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1755726521204101594) 2024-02-08T22:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@LalaniNarendra Nothing is settled for the PV event yet still waiting to see if & when it happens and how it will play out. The models have been fluctuating a lot but FWIW the latest updates are moving in a significantly colder direction" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1756607399212048495) 2024-02-11T09:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@LalaniNarendra You're welcome. I'm a global itinerant currently in Asia" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1756613639875018955) 2024-02-11T09:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ValueNotDeadYet For lower growth companies the only time the market cares about FCF is when they use it to aggressively buy back their stock. E.g. some of mine ( $DBX $SIG $EXPE.) have been going up recently bc of this. (continued)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1756625958122160512) 2024-02-11T10:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@LalaniNarendra It means I don't see a limit on how low it can go in the short term. $1.8 $1.5 $1.0. Previously I was expecting a replay of [----] where the producers would shut in production at around $1.5. But situation now is different - they might not do it this time" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1756644518534017230) 2024-02-11T11:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Analysts: #natgas selloff overdone now. "This is where you say enough is enough" says John Woods of JJ Woods Associates who predicts a return to a bull market by the end of March. "You're not going to make money in this market trading short at $1.60."" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1758383116086108273) 2024-02-16T06:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Rory_Johnston Doesn't have to be either or. H2 fuel cells can be the battery for EVs. Rather than bet based on gut instinct or whatever I'll just watch what the auto co's do. Hyundai is getting into H2 in quite a big way FWIW" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1758801781856018615) 2024-02-17T10:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Epic Games rather than $META is bringing the Metaverse to life according to YF. Tencent $TCEHY has a 40% stake in Epic - an example of the deep value in Tencent's investments which doesn't show up in usual valuations based on PE etc. Deeply undervalued" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1759136854056812576) 2024-02-18T08:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@SheDrills @Tonyforever2003 @JohnArnoldFndtn I like offshore & diversified too FWIW. W&T Offshore $WTI & $APA. $WTI to double production over next [--] years (prob sooner). $APA stock includes free call options on Suriname & Alpine High (to be developed when LNG demand boosts natgas price in future)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1759140118991098286) 2024-02-18T08:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@SheDrills @DerHenricus I used to be a $CPE investor. With oil at $90-100 they will have huge FCF yield 50% Was v. disappointed it sold so cheaply to $APA. But after looking into it $APA too is v. undervalued with big catalysts (Suriname Alpine High in future). Long $APA now :)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1760554357790282158) 2024-02-22T06:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@jenstilmanydots Zijin has so much growth potential with assets across the globe this is just one example. Reflects not only the reg environ but also the quality of management considering the humble origins of this co. And trading at roughly half the fwd PE multiple of western peers like $FCX" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1761389502294282570) 2024-02-24T13:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "As it went with Coherent so it shall go with Marvell $MRVL on their upcoming ER on March [--]. Expecting the shares to pop similarly to $COHR's 20%. The dynamics & market perceptions are remarkably similar; only difference is $MRVL is higher up the tech infrastructure food chain" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1761397229322191142) 2024-02-24T14:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Full-on knife-catching mode with $MRVL today loading up 25% of the portfolio now. Near term decline vs explosive long-term growth in their data center business. Most analysts raised their PTs $20 to mid $90s after ER but algos have knocked it down to mid $60s" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1768301229153853527) 2024-03-14T15:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@IvanaSpear Can take this a step further and consider the transformational effect data centers' electricity consumption will have on natural gas demand for power gen. #Natgas producers are a way to play this. Biggest is $EQT although I prefer the Canadian $TOU.TO Power demand from data centers is reshaping the industry. https://t.co/8mM9crqVBO Power demand from data centers is reshaping the industry. https://t.co/8mM9crqVBO" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1771861521280205209) 2024-03-24T11:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@firstenercast Considering that (i) global industrial growth is about to rebound according to forward indicators and (ii) Germany is replacing their closed nuclear plants with natgas plants I'll channel @Gasino11 and say "the bottom is in" for Euro natgas demand" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1777994195153961265) 2024-04-10T09:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Prates @jeanpaulprates was a very good CEO at Petrobras who did the best possible job of balancing Lula's agenda with shareholders' interests. His 'Strategic Plan' gave Lula what he claimed he wanted while being ok for shareholders too. (continued) $PBR $PBR.A Brazil pushes out Petrobras CEO names ex-regulator to top job- Reuters https://t.co/xakUCIUglB $PBR $PBR.A Brazil pushes out Petrobras CEO names ex-regulator to top job- Reuters https://t.co/xakUCIUglB" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1790754335774974462) 2024-05-15T14:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TeddyGambino Canadian oil & gas producers will be paying my pension for the next 20+ years :) $BTE $ATH $TOU $ARX $PEY $SOIL $AXL.V" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1791429739695280330) 2024-05-17T11:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@HFI_Research Thanks for the idea & good intro to Veren. I'd be interested to know your take on Saturn Oil $SOIL - deep value or value trap" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1792853720453333053) 2024-05-21T09:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Convertbond They (and the market) know that they will struggle to make money as long as the yield curve is inverted" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1796161472394895477) 2024-05-30T12:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Rory_Johnston Is there an implicit assumption here that China's GDP growth is going to dramatically slow down in the coming years I would question that. And if strong GDP growth continues then so will their oil demand for non-light vehicle transportation & manufacturing (plastics etc)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1802103708333002840) 2024-06-15T22:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements ""Plaquemines is ahead of schedule and expected to begin producing LNG in the next few months." The upstart Venture Global raising the bar for efficiency & innovation once again in the #natgas industry. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/banker-lawyer-duo-billions-audacious-001529178.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/banker-lawyer-duo-billions-audacious-001529178.html" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1806379084412572100) 2024-06-27T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TheLongInvest You probably didn't buy $FCX at $9 during the covid selloff before it ran to $50+. I did bigtime :) No I won't be buying $BABA now at $72 bc there are others with better value & growth outlooks: Tencent (up 25% for me while Baba has gone nowhere) $PDD $TME $JD $YUMC" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1807019272465748352) 2024-06-29T11:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@rks2305 @TheLongInvest $YUMC is one of the best China investment opportunities at present IMO. Growing sales & profits with a long growth runway ahead. And on track to buy back 15% of their outstanding shares this year - this is what a serious buyback program looks like" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1807460683589767596) 2024-06-30T17:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@rks2305 @TheLongInvest I'm also positive on $BABA for the longterm but I think the property market needs to stabilize and the Chinese need to get their mojo back before $baba's core ecommerce business can get back on a growth trajectory" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1807461820065894523) 2024-06-30T17:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Well-off #boomers spending their money to enjoy their golden years is a major developing secular theme. For sure they'll be doing lots of travel and will not be so price-sensitive caring more about quality of the experience. Perfect for Expedia $EXPE. https://www.wsj.com/us-news/baby-boomers-drive-economy-d4b72e40 https://www.wsj.com/us-news/baby-boomers-drive-economy-d4b72e40" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1810225537660637201) 2024-07-08T08:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@jenstilmanydots I wonder how it would have turned out for Ivanhoe $IVN.TO if the Canadian govt in [----] had blocked Zijin (China)'s investment in the Kamoa-Kulaka project in DRC which was crucial for the development of that project and came at a time when no other major players were interested" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1810250128978280720) 2024-07-08T09:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@jenstilmanydots Many people still want "the real thing" (natural diamonds) even if indistinguishable from lab grown. Same with Rolex watches Hermes bags etc - people want real even when fake is perfect & indistinguishable" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1811785916429795829) 2024-07-12T15:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "This is not only bullish for #copper demand but points to a huge investment opportunity in #battery storage too in China and globally incl. the U.S. Long $FLNC & $EOSE and also the major Chinese battery producer CATL via the China ETF $CNXT. (CATL is 20% of $CNXT.) Per Financial Times #copper: 'Beijing rolls out $800bn investment over six years to upgrade system as shift from coal piles pressure on creaking grid' https://t.co/5jLIIHTqXs Per Financial Times #copper: 'Beijing rolls out $800bn investment over six years to upgrade system as shift from coal piles pressure on creaking grid'" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1812466740171002136) 2024-07-14T12:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@nataninvesting Regardless of what value investors say the market regards $BABA as a busted growth stock and is giving it same brutal treatment it gives to all busted growth stocks. Compare with $DBX for example. Only thing that will make the sp go up is if/when $BABA gets its growth back" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1815380103112831046) 2024-07-22T13:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Further evidence for the cyclical upturn in global industrial/manufacturing growth predicted earlier by @businesscycle. Bullish for trucking warehousing & logistics including my $XPO $GXO $RXO. And also for oil & diesel. West Coast imports near all-time highs. Very bullish for 2H trucking. https://t.co/10KjFB8SSl West Coast imports near all-time highs. Very bullish for 2H trucking. https://t.co/10KjFB8SSl" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1815720920180482347) 2024-07-23T12:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NedDevine45 They didn't borrow more but did a major debt refinancing (pushing out the maturity & at a lower interest rate) which cost $50M and did bolt-on land acquisitions which cost $35M. These one-off costs ate the $ that would have gone to debt paydown this Q" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1816960355299713242) 2024-07-26T22:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Interesting divergence between #oil and #copper & the US #dollar today. Oil tanking on recession fears while copper shrugs it off and USD is selling off bigtime vs foreign currencies - not the reaction you would expect if U.S. is about to drag the world into a global recession" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1819390861379240202) 2024-08-02T15:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@GringoInvesting There's also LNG Canada starting commercial operations in mid [----] that's another 2bcf/d. And something in Mexico also" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1820160436026675471) 2024-08-04T18:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@KoyfinCharts Turns out I have [--] of these: $LULU $SQ & $EXPE. Didn't buy them bc they are close to lowest valuations in a decade though but bc they all have great outlooks for the years ahead IMO and were very cheap considering the value" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1820200684022845857) 2024-08-04T20:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@JoeTheMiner0 @jenstilmanydots Monthly but the payout size varies since it comes from the reits that make up the eft and they usually pay quarterly but each with their own schedule" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1820421899073282363) 2024-08-05T11:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$YUMC buybacks: 7% of the outstanding shares in the past year. 5% in H1 of this year. Buying back another 5%+ in H2" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1820873065355735455) 2024-08-06T17:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "China imports & exports grew nicely in July. The monthly data is noisy but the trend for both exports and imports is clearly up in the past year (see the graph below) indicating China's economy is recovering. China's July trade balance at [-----] billion yuan Prev. [------] bln yuan: #Exports +6.5% y/y #Imports +6.6% y/y Trade balance at $84.65 bln in USD term Est.$99.2 bln #Exports +7.0% y/y Est. +9.5% #Imports +7.2% y/y Est. +3.0% #China #trade #economy https://t.co/xA2rRtBNLj China's July trade balance at [-----] billion yuan Prev. [------] bln yuan: #Exports +6.5% y/y #Imports +6.6% y/y Trade" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1821520329958936650) 2024-08-08T12:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Today I am #knifecatching Solaris $SLS.TO and Marvell $MRVL. Have big positions in these already but will take advantage of the recent selloff to make them bigger. Buying battleground stocks of great co's when they are beaten up is a good way to make money in the market" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1821527983980782068) 2024-08-08T12:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@marketplunger1 For coal-fueled dividends think I would rather own a pure play coal miner. E.g. the South African Thungela (the spinoff of Anglo-American's coal business). 15% dividend yield currently" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1822277251733340162) 2024-08-10T14:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@investmish Analysts are expecting a big recovery in earnings in 2025-26 giving $EL a 2026(est) PE of 17x which is cheap if it can get back to being the quality growth co that it was in the past. They might be too optimistic but seems decent risk-reward for taking a small $EL position now" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1822646975868567608) 2024-08-11T14:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@jenstilmanydots Wow. Australia (BHP's home country) was not a "hostile foreign power" when last I checked" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1823307714480759101) 2024-08-13T10:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Expecting a v. good ER from Marvell $MRVL after the close today. Cisco's ER showed enterprises resumed spending on IT networking-related hardware after working through inventories - will boost $MRVL's business segments that had been weak. And then a further boost from AI" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1829158019625824445) 2024-08-29T14:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Marvell $MRVL: A v. good ER as expected :) And the CEO had an important msg for market: those bogeymen some think are under the bed are not real $MRVL can indeed flourish vs the goliath Broadcom just like Nutanix vs VMware Spotify vs Apple & others. https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1829158019625824445 Expecting a v. good ER from Marvell $MRVL after the close today. Cisco's ER showed enterprises resumed spending on IT networking-related hardware after working through inventories - will boost $MRVL's business segments that had been weak. And then a further boost from AI." [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1829560097078661397) 2024-08-30T16:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "#China's manufacturing PMIs in recent months suggest that the high-tech-focused ETF #CNXT is a better bet than consumer-focused ETF $KWEB or individual stocks like $BABA. Many of #CNXT's top holdings are v. cheap co's with strong rev. & profit growth. https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1830272118929682797 China manufacturing PMI for August: Bifurcation between sector performances continues. Strongly expanding: food beverages rail high-tech & equipment manufacturing. Strongly contracting: energy-intensive sectors (petrochem refining/smelting.) Neutral: consumer goods." [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1830278338633732236) 2024-09-01T16:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$CNXT used to be a popular China ETF for Westerners in the past but has been forgotten and left for dead now and currently trading near all-time lows. It's NAV of $14m and avg. volume of 2K are tiny compared to what they used to be in the past" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1830282180398059556) 2024-09-01T16:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "As a generalist & relative newcomer to O&G investing my working hypothesis is that inventories are to #oil what value is to stocks and Ben Graham's famous quote applies: "Market is a voting machine in ST but in LT it's a weighing machine" (of stocks value or oil inventories)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1831346302267089072) 2024-09-04T14:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@CRUDEOIL231 How about a repeat of [----] The present situation seems similar to the big selloff in early [----] which was also driven by weak China demand fears & connected to a downturn in their property market that time. The similarity is supported by this: https://x.com/OilHeadlineNews/status/1819733529095258226 Hedge Funds Turn Bearish on Commodities - For the First Time Since [----] https://t.co/6c0utviIdS https://x.com/OilHeadlineNews/status/1819733529095258226 Hedge Funds Turn Bearish on Commodities - For the First Time Since [----] https://t.co/6c0utviIdS" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1832465810218217916) 2024-09-07T17:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@jenstilmanydots You're welcome :) FWIW I'm expecting the opposite of recession now expecting the economy to revive and start booming with the Fed & other CBs cutting rates. Will help my oil & commodities stocks a lot I hope :)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1833334531509916081) 2024-09-10T02:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "FWIW these are my current top ideas: 1) Solaris $SLS.TO $SLSR & Solgold $SOLG.L: Developing major new #copper mines in Ecuador. Supply demand for copper in the years ahead. Risky but potential gains of 5x-10x for both based on their NPVs. Will need to wait some years though" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1833726611461689785) 2024-09-11T04:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Top idea nr 2: Marvell $MRVL. A major beneficiary of the #AI supercycle. Currently a battleground stock & cheap bc HFs think it will struggle vs the goliath Broadcom. They should check how it worked out for Nutanix vs VMware Spotify vs Apple Music & others. V. high quality" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1833728430111936588) 2024-09-11T04:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Top idea nr [--] $CNXT continued: But in practice the attention these days is on the big consumer-focused internet players like $BABA $KWEB. $CNXT will require patience; good things won't happen until the Chinese stop lusting for the U.S. nasdaq and start buying their own one" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1833752298461208889) 2024-09-11T06:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Top idea nr 6: Fluence $FLNC. Utility-scale battery storage is an explosive growth area and $FLNC is an emerging leader. Still a battleground stock & cheap trading at 15x 2026(E) earnings with 2026(E) earning/revenue growth being 52%/18%" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1833756516463395298) 2024-09-11T06:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "My other ideas & bets include $EOSE $EOLS $EXPE $LULU $TPR $SIG $REAL $BETR $IOVA $AZN $RTX $SQ $NU $STNE a bunch of Canadian oil & gas names some Chinese ones and last but not least some problematic Russians" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1833761501087408527) 2024-09-11T06:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Forgot to mention Applovin $APP. Basically an adtech AI play. A battleground stock which HFs have a misguided fondness for shorting. Hard to say that #AI is overhyped when this one trades at 16x 2026(E) earnings with 2026E earnings/rev growth of 27%/14%" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1833777949952098494) 2024-09-11T08:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "It is also testing China's and the CPC's tolerance for Xi. #Chinas Deepening Slowdown Tests Xis Tolerance for Growth Miss A slew of major indicators undershot expectations in August Goldman Sachs Citigroup Morgan Stanley lower forecasts https://t.co/U3MPvX0VDn #Chinas Deepening Slowdown Tests Xis Tolerance for Growth Miss A slew of major indicators undershot expectations in August Goldman Sachs Citigroup Morgan Stanley lower forecasts https://t.co/U3MPvX0VDn" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1835654242322751852) 2024-09-16T12:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Kevin_AGraham Actually lots of people care about this and have been pounding the table about how cheap they are for a long time. What they don't realize is that $BABA and the others are simply getting the "busted growth stock" treatment with a China discount. Similar to $DBX $MTCH $PYPL" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1837111653516939358) 2024-09-20T12:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Kevin_AGraham FWIW I prefer Tencent and $PDD since unlike $BABA they have decent growth. And prefer $JD to $BABA since $JD doesn't complete directly with the beast $PDD. Also $YUMC is better value v. cheap with growing revenue & profits and huge buybacks" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1837113683677225226) 2024-09-20T12:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Fed cut & China demand is lifting #copper: In China premiums on imported copper rising; inventories falling. "Macro conditions turning positive now. consensus is that the US economy will be fine inflation will slow." Oil demand boost next #oott https://finance.yahoo.com/news/metals-enjoy-strong-week-boost-063721744.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/metals-enjoy-strong-week-boost-063721744.html" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1837446876448088375) 2024-09-21T11:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The China stocks ETFs $CNXT and $ASHR have both sold off down to their historical all-time lows. Not hard to guess what happens next" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1838558694113747152) 2024-09-24T12:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@SethCL Question is was the past couple of years recessionary enough (was described as a "rolling recession" by some) to give the "Fed cutting after recession" outcome this time There's some evidence the answer is yes. E.g. this: https://x.com/RBAdvisors/status/1833187391504277917 The early stages of #inventory building is typically a sign of recovery/expansion and not a sign of #economic weakness or recession. https://t.co/q2Ym5Ty79k https://x.com/RBAdvisors/status/1833187391504277917 The early stages of #inventory building is typically a sign of recovery/expansion and not a sign of" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1838941524429558173) 2024-09-25T13:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Sold for $3.70 the extra $SLS.TO shares I bought a few weeks ago at $2.60 and put the $ into $BTE.TO @ $3.90 to take advantage of Mr. Market's latest gift. From one knifecatching to the next :) Still have a large position in Solaris $SLS.TO that I will hold for the longterm" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1839348873204269555) 2024-09-26T16:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ericnuttall Oil & producer equities with high torque like Baytex $BTE is Mr. Market's latest gift. But of course most people will decline it and want to chase the things that have already run up like China & copper" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1839770070861721830) 2024-09-27T20:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "From a fundamentals viewpoint gold should have priced in Fed easing by now. Next the market is likely to start pricing in revival & boom in the global economy. That will be -ve for gold and +ve for oil" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1840403004782207175) 2024-09-29T14:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "But I remain v. bullish on gold for the longterm as a safe store of value while the US and other countries continue to debase their currencies with increasing debt-fueled fiscal spending (basically money printing)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1840404446045749295) 2024-09-29T14:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@NuggetCapital Profits on tech copper & gold stocks are helping fund my oil buying . Been loading up bigtime on $BTE down here" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1841078594103128156) 2024-10-01T11:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ericnuttall Yep. The Saudis regard oil in the ground as a kind of currency and don't like to change it to that other currency US dollars unless the exchange rate is good" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1841245639012991234) 2024-10-01T22:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Based on how it went with the retail investor-driven boom & bust in Chinese stocks in [----] I expect the current boom to continue for as long as the govt stimulus/support announcements keep coming and top out when they stop. Expecting a few more weeks of this. (1/2) #IMPORTANT #China will hold a press conference on Tuesday October [--] [----] at 10:00 AM(2:00 AM GMT). Senior officials from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will provide an update on the "comprehensive implementation of a package of incremental policies to https://t.co/Y4b0wXIYaB #IMPORTANT #China will hold a" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1842895075702874187) 2024-10-06T11:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Wouldn't be surprised if the China ETFs $CNXT & $ASHR get back to their [----] peaks or at least their highs in [----]. (2/2)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1842895765297086767) 2024-10-06T11:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@AustinBL85 I've been posting about $CNXT ever since the boom started (and actually before too). E.g. this: https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1838554908792098931 Sounds like this monetary stimulus from China's CB will be the catalyst for the Chinese to start buying their own stocks (instead of the local ETFs tracking the U.S. Nasdaq). Westerners can piggyback their buying with ETFs like $CNXT (my preference) or $AHSR. https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1838554908792098931 Sounds like this monetary stimulus from China's CB will be the catalyst for the Chinese to start buying their own stocks" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1842910016464101882) 2024-10-06T12:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "This explains the pop in #China stocks just now and the accompanying pop in #oil & #copper prices. Prospect of announcement of the hoped for fiscal stimulus on Saturday. #BREAKING CHINA FINANCE MINISTRY SCHEDULES OCT 12(SAT. 10:00 AM CST 2:00 AM GMT) PRESS BRIEFING ON FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. #China $HSI $SHCOMP $KWEB $FXI $HXC $DRAG https://t.co/QV4jl8NdWF #BREAKING CHINA FINANCE MINISTRY SCHEDULES OCT 12(SAT. 10:00 AM CST 2:00 AM GMT) PRESS BRIEFING ON FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. #China $HSI $SHCOMP $KWEB $FXI $HXC $DRAG https://t.co/QV4jl8NdWF" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1843889096890167332) 2024-10-09T05:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Just as Biden has his hand on the oil price to keep it low so does Xi have his hand on the China stock market to keep it going up :)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1843890406293148016) 2024-10-09T05:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@garquake @SciFiGreen54 My guess is it's about the coming winter. La nina winters tend to be cold in Canada (but not necessarily in the US). Cold winter will take care of the current huge gas storage surplus in Canada" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1844017960207405492) 2024-10-09T14:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@liqian_ren I'll interpret "relatively big" as meaning similar size to major stimulus they have done in the past e.g. for GFC. But this time the main focus will be on stimulating consumption rather than infrastructure spending. Clearly they are still working out the details. Ok I guess" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1845030795146047558) 2024-10-12T09:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@liqian_ren Probably more accurate to say the main focus areas are directly stimulating consumption stabilizing the property market and resolving local govt debt situation. The last two will help with the first one though" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1845033301515567518) 2024-10-12T09:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@GringoInvesting The outlook is for huge ramp up in their data center business custom asic in particular. Analysts expecting them to be at 24x PE in [----] with earnings growth of 18% (data from seekingalpha). For comparison: 2026(E) PE of 28x for nvidia 23x for marvell" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1846476371503305109) 2024-10-16T09:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@GringoInvesting FWIW I have 20% of my account in Marvell $MRVL. They are the "value play" & battleground stock in this space. If the analysts are right in [----] they will have PE of 23x with earnings/revenue growth of 35%/21% - 2026(E) PEG ratio of 23/35 = [----]. Peter Lynch would approve :)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1846478217173229966) 2024-10-16T09:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Why did the CEO of Marvell $MRVL suddenly decide to buy $1M of stock recently when most of the time he is selling stock from his SBC via an automated trading plan What does he know that we don't ;) https://www.barrons.com/articles/marvell-stock-buy-ceo-7786e71c https://www.barrons.com/articles/marvell-stock-buy-ceo-7786e71c" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1847047944555712913) 2024-10-17T22:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Finally some +ve econ data out of China. Q3 GDP Sept retail sales industrial growth & fixed asset investment all beating expectations: ⚡#China GDP data: Q3 GDP 4.6% y/y Est.+4.5% Q1-Q3 GDP 4.8% y/y Prev.+5.0% 1Sept retail sales 3.2% y/y Est.2.5% 2Sept industrial growth 5.4% y/y Est.4.5% 3Jan-Sept fixed asset investment 3.4% y/y Est.3.3% Sept Unemployment 5.1% Prev. 5.3% 1/ Thread #EconTwitter https://t.co/B3MeWF9CNG ⚡#China GDP data: Q3 GDP 4.6% y/y Est.+4.5% Q1-Q3 GDP 4.8% y/y Prev.+5.0% 1Sept retail sales 3.2% y/y Est.2.5% 2Sept industrial growth 5.4% y/y Est.4.5% 3Jan-Sept fixed asset" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1847107841695658194) 2024-10-18T02:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Also an announcement of more monetary stimulus from the PBOC (China's CB). These RRR cuts are significant - they were the main juice for the big China stocks boom back in [----]. https://x.com/Sino_Market/status/1847102939384762596 https://x.com/Sino_Market/status/1847102939384762596" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1847109366161592657) 2024-10-18T02:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@GringoInvesting Yes they compete with $avgo in custom asics and it's expected to be their biggest growth driver going forward. Besides that they are the leader in optical interconnects w. strong growth expected there too. A thread w. more details if you're interested: https://x.com/IvanaSpear/status/1780627187798041072 https://x.com/IvanaSpear/status/1780627187798041072" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1847284911276999017) 2024-10-18T14:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@GringoInvesting Can add that $mrvl has several other business lines outside of data center - they are currently coming out of a cyclical trough and provide a backstop & margin of safety if the data center/AI boom doesn't live up to expectations in future" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1847289196131856551) 2024-10-18T14:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@KJuice29 @GringoInvesting At the risk of jinxing it yes I think it could double in [--] months and am expecting it to go much higher over the next [--] years. It is too cheap right now and the CEO has a track record of being v. conservative in his guidance" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1847359865452413268) 2024-10-18T19:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "In their earnings reports manufacturers & other cyclical industries co's are saying the bottom is in for their earnings growth. - Bullish for #oil/energy & commodities demand. #oott #natgas #macro https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ceos-saying-bad-gets-earnings-073624202.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ceos-saying-bad-gets-earnings-073624202.html" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1851207069900423343) 2024-10-29T10:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@jenstilmanydots Definitely some serious issues but mining devel & operations continue nevertheless. Am curious if you agree with assertion in video below that the golden age of mining exploration was 1975-1995 for Chile 1985-2005 for Peru & currently ongoing in Ecuador https://www.youtube.com/watchv=y4RXCrJL-8s https://www.youtube.com/watchv=y4RXCrJL-8s" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1851950091340517398) 2024-10-31T11:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "China local govt's to be recapitalized with 10T yuan (6T confirmed + another 4T later). Presumably this funds stimulus/support for property market & consumption but details still TBA. This level of support expected but market frustrated at lack of stimulus details so far. #China Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress - Summary ➡ China announced a [--] trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) program to refinance local government debt as Beijing rolls out more measures to support a slowing economy facing new risks from the reelection of #China Standing Committee of the National Peoples" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1854855817830535479) 2024-11-08T11:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This is bullish for $CNXT. It was down 8% on Friday but should recover all of that today since the Chinext index is back up to its high in China trading today. Meanwhile $BABA and the other usual suspects continue to sell off. $CNXT continues to be the better China play" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1855888696618152179) 2024-11-11T08:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NuggetCapital These days there's ample supply of most stuff that consumers & companies want & need (housing is an exception) so no reason for inflation to take off again. This should also juice the econ along with easing by Fed & CBs. Strong econ w. low/moderate inflation is v. possible" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1855953797388124402) 2024-11-11T12:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Another sign of the new narrative taking hold was the big up-moves on high volume in my copper mine developers Solaris $SLS.TO and Solgold $SOLG.L on Friday while the Nasdaq sold off 2%. (Been buying the dip in $SOLG.L bigtime recently - Mr. Market's latest gift.)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1857750314444640378) 2024-11-16T11:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "BTW for bonds & reits I think the outlook is still more bullish than bearish. More gradual rate cuts still means cuts. And not much inflation pressure these days with ample supply of energy commods & most other stuff. (Housing is an exception.)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1857753815610700168) 2024-11-16T11:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Mark_IKN The Solgold chart from when I bought looks better than the $FCX chart did when I was loading up on that one during the covid selloff. But I'll be disappointed if Solgold only gives me a 5-bagger like $FCX" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1859720795490222352) 2024-11-21T22:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@BobEUnlimited Gold/oil & gold/copper price ratios at historical highs says econ weakness not strength. The nonconsensus view for [----] is global industrial growth revives and takes off despite Trump tariffs oil & copper prices rise & their ratios w. gold reverse. I.e. 2016-17 again" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1860562308822630775) 2024-11-24T05:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Marvell $MRVL finally delivers the earnings report I've been waiting all year for. The AI data center-fueled rocketship has blasted off :)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1864328892036862360) 2024-12-04T15:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "With $MRVL being 20% of my account I naturally take a bit of profit on the 20%+ pop today to catch more of that falling knife Baytex $BTE.TO. Feels like max bearishness & capitulation of the #oil bulls today. With gold-oil ratio at historic high. - memories of [----] ;) #oott" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1864331700899352744) 2024-12-04T15:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This is probably a big part of the reason why $btc and other risk-on stuff is going up now: The upswing in liquidity https://t.co/qMc8QsTmtm The upswing in liquidity https://t.co/qMc8QsTmtm" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1865422102205247916) 2024-12-07T15:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Bitcoin $btc has shown itself to be the best global liquidity sponge so far. https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoin-a-global-liquidity-barometer/ https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoin-a-global-liquidity-barometer/" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1865423035223970032) 2024-12-07T15:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@NuggetCapital I'd love to be able to buy more $BTE at $3 CAD would do wonders for my cost basis :) But expecting WTI crude @ $80+ most of [----] not $65. When the deluge of oversupply fails to appear and global macro doesn't fall off a cliff but gets better inventories will matter again" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1865725960844411024) 2024-12-08T11:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Started a position in Kosmos Energy $KOS today. O&G explorer & producer w. offshore ops in GoM & Africa. Strongly growing production incl. FLNG project w. partner $BP slated to start producing by end of Q4. Beaten down share price on -ve sentiment & couple of fixable setbacks" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1866147603408400869) 2024-12-09T15:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$KOS market cap of $1.7B & debt $2.7B means small increase in EV gives big increase in market cap & sp. EBITDA projected to grow to $2B next year. With current 3.8x multiple (in line w. peers) this implies EV $7.6B - market cap (& sp) almost triples to $4.9B" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1866150691276005728) 2024-12-09T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "EIA now sees oil *deficit* in [----] reversing their previous forecast for surplus Well if inventory levels don't matter to the bears I'm sure they can cook up a way to make the deficit not matter too. #oott https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-sees-small-global-oil-175303031.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-sees-small-global-oil-175303031.html" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1866572772622872834) 2024-12-10T19:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PzzaSlize Haha no plan to go back to the cursed futures ETFs but I'm long a bunch of Canadian natgas producer equities" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1866843898963956141) 2024-12-11T13:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@batman10023 @NuggetCapital Mostly supply so far. E.g. in the latest forecast yesterday from the US EIA they now expect a small deficit in [--] reversing their previous forecast for surplus. A demand boost is also possible it the global econ improves (my expectation but not the consensus one so far)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1866967738104811985) 2024-12-11T22:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Shipping_VIE This is not accurate. Tullow expects (as of Nov 28) to have +ve FCF of $150M-$200M in [----]. Their 1H FCF was only -ve due to capex & cash taxes being heavily weighted to H1. And the [----] FCF is after subtracting a $40M overdue gas payment from Ghana govt. (1/2)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1868634439464759454) 2024-12-16T12:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Profits on Baytex $BTE in the high $4s CAD helped me to load up on Marvell $MRVL when it sold off down to $60 earlier this year. And now profits on $MRVL at $120+ are helping me load up on $BTE $KOS $WTI while they are deep values at current ridiculous prices. (1/2)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1868688105534026100) 2024-12-16T16:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yeah I know it's politically incorrect to be into both tech and oil/gas & commodities but its been good for my trading this year :)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1868688456697987167) 2024-12-16T16:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The HF geniuses who are hardcore shorting $BTE $KOS $WTI now are probably the same ones who sold me the $MRVL shares at $60 and $APP at $58 when they were shorting those earlier this year. Those guys never learn lol :)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1868722743828791300) 2024-12-16T18:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NuggetCapital Congrats on the good call. For me its been a chance to load up bigtime and get my cost basis down to a $3-handle. If WTI crude $80 most of the time in future (my expectation) then $BTE & $SOIL will be the biggest winners with their enormous FCF yields (con't)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1869210605640687754) 2024-12-18T02:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@GringoInvesting @businesscycle The interview starts at 1:01:10. If you click the link it should take you exactly to that place" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1869406498411163859) 2024-12-18T15:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@GringoInvesting @businesscycle From what I've seen their leading indicators have been accurate predictors of the things they are meant to predict. But sometimes ECRI maybe read too much into what the indicators were saying" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1869407941469884659) 2024-12-18T15:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@NuggetCapital @sohaibab9 $TVE is the only oil stock i've made money on this year after buying in June. And from looking at the price charts history says that where $TVE leads $BTE will follow. Different this time I'm betting not :)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1872572418709225708) 2024-12-27T09:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@sohaibab9 @NuggetCapital I was a shareholder in Ranger at the time of the acquisition so I know it well. (That's how i first heard of BTE and got interested in CDN O&G names.) Ranger was well-regarded by US investors & analysts but needs WTI $80 for good outcome and that's my bet for longterm" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1872586629900358022) 2024-12-27T10:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@sohaibab9 @NuggetCapital BTE has v. good acreage in Canada and I expect a big boost to their YE reserves there after their exploration work this year similar to the boost that TVE had. The Ranger acquisition makes it more of leveraged bet on high oil prices; suits me fine since I want to make that bet" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1872593143750881710) 2024-12-27T10:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@rks2305 @marketplunger1 Nice pick. I also like this one a lot and started a position recently. Reminds me of $real when I bought in dec 2023: solidly growing revenue rapid progress towards profitability structural tailwinds but deeply undervalued due to irrationally -ve market sentiment" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1876288455900360806) 2025-01-06T15:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@rks2305 @marketplunger1 $Real took off in H2 of last year. This year it could be $accd's turn :)" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1876288839129682205) 2025-01-06T15:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Big_Orrin The point is that Canada doesn't need to stop the supply to the US just tighten it enough that the US side eats the tariff costs to get the oil they need. The US refiners don't care who pays for the tariff as long as it's not them. They will pass it on to US consumers if needed" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1879564638796599743) 2025-01-15T16:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Big_Orrin I think it would be healthier/better for Canada to just learn the lesson of this experience: they need to develop other export markets instead of depending on the US. That's what China did. SE Asia now China's biggest & fastest growing export market while US smaller & shrinking" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1879610753801699691) 2025-01-15T19:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Big_Orrin So what if the tariffs remain forever. Canada can reciprocate & needs to develop other markets stop depending on the US. Reminds me of how New Zealand had to find new markets for their dairy exports after UK joined the EU (long time ago). They managed it and so can Canada" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1879613056206160068) 2025-01-15T19:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@SolGold_plc @RedCloudFS If you aren't doing this already please explore the possibilities of funding from private equity firms. They are getting increasingly interested in financing major energy transition projects - including new mines to extract materials needed for the transition" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1880671441655607444) 2025-01-18T17:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@marketplunger1 Junior copper miners developing confirmed major resources. I have Solgold $SOLG.L & Solaris $SLS.TO. Also Salazar $SRL.V which has a 25% carried stake in the El Domo mine being constructed by their partner Silvercorp. All trading at small fractions of NAV" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1881447649347522719) 2025-01-20T21:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "But I 'm grateful to the HFs for knocking $EOLS share price down to levels where it is obvious value & big margin of safety. Normally such a stock would trade at a nosebleed valuation - off limits for me. Longterm guidance of $700M revenue by [----] makes $EOLS a likely 3x" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1882070118810960114) 2025-01-22T14:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "What other stocks are the HF shorts likely to get their asses handed to them in in the months ahead Likely candidates IMO: Iovance $IOVA W&T Offshore $WTI & Fluence $FLNC. Short interest 20% 12% 12% resp. I've been buying the selloffs in these too just like with $EOLS" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1882071980964454840) 2025-01-22T14:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Prediction: In the future Alberta will erect a big statue of The Donald in central Calgary in appreciation of him giving Canada the kick up the ass it so badly needed to finally build out its energy infrastructure and fulfill its destiny as an energy-exporting superpower. #COM" [X Link](https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1886079948395528466) 2025-02-02T15:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@SaItinerant RandomItinerantSA
RandomItinerantSA posts on X about stocks, china, $mrvl, $kos the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [------] #
- [--] Week [-----] +31%
- [--] Month [-------] +4,354%
- [--] Months [-------] +6,485%
- [--] Year [---------] +3,783%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [--] -24%
- [--] Months [---] +246%
- [--] Year [---] +133%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [---] +0.88%
- [--] Month [---] +1.60%
- [--] Months [---] +30%
- [--] Year [---] +59%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance stocks countries technology brands cryptocurrencies currencies exchanges travel destinations fashion brands automotive brands
Social topic influence stocks, china, $mrvl, $kos, in the, $bte, ai, $baba, $flnc, canada
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @nuggetcapital @marketplunger1 @gringoinvesting @pandawatch88 @jenstilmanydots @aleabitoreddit @thelonginvest @finansmerak137 @hfiresearch @businesscycle @insaneanalyst @valuenotdeadyet @tmtbreakout @gabcasla @irajoseph @votebrucenl @freightalley @rks2305 @minnvestor @manitobacanuck
Top assets mentioned Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL) Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS) Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) Alibaba Group (BABA) Fluence Energy, Inc. (FLNC) Adobe, Inc. (ADBE) Better Home & Finance Holding Company Class A Common Stock (BETR) Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) Bitcoin (BTC) Now Coin (NOW) XPO LOGISTICS, INC. (XPO) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock (LITE) Coherent Inc (COHR) Strategy (MSTR) Soil (SOIL) Whirlpool Corporation (WHR) Lyft, Inc. Class A Common Stock (LYFT) RXO, Inc. (RXO) APA Corp (US) (APA) Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (YUMC) Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE) Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stock (IOVA) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) Noble Corporation (NE) Morgan Stanley (MS) Flare (FLR) PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@sunchartist It was clear to me when buying Country Garden stock back in October that despite what the bond market was saying BK would not happen. The govt would ensure that quality developers who had stayed within the 'red lines' would get whatever help they needed"
X Link 2023-03-12T16:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@sunchartist Otherwise would look like Xi made a terrible policy mistake in RE crackdown. And property sector is too important to China's GDP to let the quality developers go bankrupt. The main concern i had was equity dilution through new share issuance. Fortunately it hasn't been too bad"
X Link 2023-03-12T16:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ira_joseph Yes but it seems clear already that a growing number of less developed countries are not only importing LNG now but have plans to make gas an increasingly prominent part of their energy mix going forward. They say so in their energy policy announcements. (continued)"
X Link 2023-07-22T17:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ira_joseph A factor to bear in mind is that those countries are not currently able to sign longterm contracts for cheap(er) gas due to poor credit ratings. But in future they surely will once their development and ratings improve sufficiently"
X Link 2023-07-22T17:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@allstarcharts Was/am surprised by this bull market sold a lot and raised cash last year but used this to load up on China tech and later American energy when they sold off hard. Feeling well positioned for what comes next"
X Link 2023-07-30T18:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@allstarcharts Have also been benefitting from the "recession postponed" trade in the past couple of months where stocks that had sold off on recession fears have rebounded strongly. Been playing it with $EXPE $DBX $SIG its going great :)"
X Link 2023-07-30T18:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@VoteBruceNL Its harder for O&G producers to raise capital now compared to past - they are more focused on ROI. When share price is low then dividends & buybacks give better ROI for shareholders than investing in new production. (continued)"
X Link 2023-08-13T12:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@VoteBruceNL That's why the CEO of one of the producers (I think it was $FANG) when asked a couple of years ago what it would take for him to invest more to raise production answered "Seeing our share price go up""
X Link 2023-08-13T12:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@WallStreetSilv Also has big implications for warehousing logistics & trucking companies: they are the beneficiaries of more merchandise being sold online. Long $XPO and its spinoffs $GXO $RXO"
X Link 2023-08-19T15:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Shubham97959957 @michaelxpettis Yes they should definitely do something like that. Funding to local govts to buy properties on the open market to stabilize prices. And loans to developers to complete current projects. I expect they'll do this eventually but waiting for more deleveraging first"
X Link 2023-08-27T09:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Shubham97959957 @michaelxpettis Stabilizing the housing market is the key to recovery in China. 1/3 of Chinese households own [--] or more properties The negative wealth effect from declining property prices is what's stopping them from spending now"
X Link 2023-08-27T09:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Finally $LNG is stepping up - continuing large storage surplus reductions thru shoulder season. At some point it will matter for #natgas price. In the meantime Oct - Jan spread is the most extreme in the past [--] years as if calamity is coming in Oct"
X Link 2023-08-29T15:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JenscapeRsrch $BETR is actually pretty interesting at $1. I bought a little. They have a lot of cash to weather the storm now. Pent up demand for housing/mortgages is huge will get released at some point. (And yes i know you are referring to something completely different ;)"
X Link 2023-08-31T16:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@andrepaltry The bearish paper traders are active in cash/spot price trading too. And the physical gas traders don't need to buy the gas first before selling the winter futures. They can wait to buy it later let the paper traders knock down the price more first"
X Link 2023-09-03T13:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The latest winter forecast from ECMWF. Looking good for the #natgas bulls. H/T @judah47"
X Link 2023-09-06T10:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"It's clear now that #natgas storage is not going to fill by EOS = storage operators & physical gas traders must be super motivated to buy & store gas now while selling it forward in the winter months to take advantage of the most extreme contango in the past [--] years"
X Link 2023-09-06T12:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NattyGasIce @kentfunny2021 It's more bullish for Oct & spot price. But Nov should also benefit from the "reduce the contango" effect of these trades. However this continues to be overwhelmed by the paper trading of the bearish natgas pros who think that the contango should be even more extreme"
X Link 2023-09-06T15:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MichaelAArouet This is another reason: Compared to previous tightening cycles the real Fed rate is very low (so far):"
X Link 2023-09-10T13:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"No one seems to know for sure why #natgas cash & front month are rallying hard today. I don't either but the most extreme contango of the past [--] years sure does create an attractive arbitrage opp for phys gas players given the excess storage available. maybe it's that"
X Link 2023-09-12T18:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@PaulSaladino7 @ZhaiXiang5 @magmadoctor @RnaudBertrand I agree. And also the Taiwanese system based on free market capitalism has giving much better results than the state-controlled system in the PRC. Taiwan is more prosperous higher median wage etc. And they know the PRC will subvert it if they can just like in HK"
X Link 2023-09-14T23:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This chart from @ericnuttall is nice confirmation of the enormous FCF yields of $CPE & $BTE with #oil at $90+. Which is exactly why I loaded up on these two during the earlier selloff :) Although my biggest O&G position W&T Offshore $WTI is even better IMHO. #oott"
X Link 2023-09-21T12:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ShepRules But this year EOS storage is on track for [----] or less by EOS leaving 200+Bcf excess storage for playing the arbitrage game. The storage operators & other physical gas players certainly can take advantage of this and no doubt they already are. (continued)"
X Link 2023-09-22T11:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ShepRules But the buying & selling forward of gas by the physical gas players is so far being overwhelmed by the ongoing and ramping shorting by the clique of bearish pros who dominate the market. Their game is shorting the ETFs so they do what profits them in this game"
X Link 2023-09-22T11:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@harrison_honor It's a hidden gem :) Esp. if you are bullish on the longterm outlook for natgas since that's 50% of their production. Plenty of room to grow through acquisitions of small under-capitalized operators in their neighborhood in GOM"
X Link 2023-10-03T15:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Renewable energy stocks been beaten up recently - time to go value hunting :) Putting politics aside and just focusing on the economics. $DAR looks good with EV 7x [----] guided EBITDA. But $AMTX is even better. (continued)"
X Link 2023-10-03T16:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@VoteBruceNL Good company but too popular and expensive for my tastes. The stock has been performing well over many years will probably continue. Has been doubling every [--] years but I target ones that can double in [--] years or less (with more risk of course)"
X Link 2023-10-03T19:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@VoteBruceNL Both look interesting. Based on a quick look $PNE seems like a stable low-cost high-dividend player; modest recent growth & torque to higher NG prices. 15% FCF yield - good but possible to find better. $PNG looks like a niche player - lot of research needed to assess that one"
X Link 2023-10-03T20:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JavierBlas Lol. Oil price was higher [--] years ago. How much did it "inflate US interest rates" that time Apparently it's written somewhere in the US Constitution that oil price should remain below $100 forever while all other goods & service prices rise over time"
X Link 2023-10-05T02:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Missing from discussions of renewable fuels vs fossil is what happens when fossil fuel prices higher in future due to increasingly limited capacity to increase prodx. E.g. $150 the new normal for oil. Renewable fuels will be more than competitive then"
X Link 2023-10-05T14:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The formerly high-flying mortgage tech startup $BETR has been pulverized after going public recently. Frozen housing market killing their business for now but they have a big cash pile to weather the storm. (continued)"
X Link 2023-10-06T12:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I'm more focused on what the current housing market is doing to $BETR's less well-capitalized non-bank competitors. A potential 100-bagger in future if things go their way when the housing market eventually recovers"
X Link 2023-10-06T12:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Here's an interview with $BETR's CFO discussing their current situation & outlook:"
X Link 2023-10-06T12:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Noalgos I agree about $DAR bought some shares earlier & added more today. Normally I prefer cheap cash flow in the present vs growth without profits. but the potential of $AMTX is too good to ignore so bought some of that one too (earlier around $4)"
X Link 2023-10-12T18:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Ramped up my #natgas bet today. While it's still too early to say how the winter weather will be @judah47's latest blog gives indications it could be a cold one. Market currently assigning zero probability for this. - mispriced risk-reward"
X Link 2023-10-17T13:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Crucial thing to watch this week is the snow cover extent in Siberia. If it can ramp up to normal or above that will significantly increase the cold artic airmass & chance for weakened PV - colder winter outlook as discussed in @nynjpaweather's forecast & @judah47's blog (2/3)"
X Link 2023-10-23T06:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Here's a resource for following the Siberian snow cover extent (SCE) with daily updates: (3/3)"
X Link 2023-10-23T06:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@macastel3 This suggests that Alibaba will be less impacted by Pinduoduo in China once the Chinese economy recovers and consumers there become less price sensitive (i.e. return to their previous spending habits)"
X Link 2023-10-30T12:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@PaulAndreola China/HK equities followed by renewables esp. wind/solar/hydrogen"
X Link 2023-11-01T16:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@thematrix1337 @GlennLuk As an investor in Chinese stocks (20% of my portfolio) I'm actually more concerned with the concrete consequences. Private companies are being coerced to align with state goals and devote resources to it. They're becoming state-controlled to an increasing extent"
X Link 2023-11-02T10:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@macastel3 From what you have written previously it seems some high-end fashion-connected Western brands are continuing to thrive in China e.g. Lululemon. Why is Apple down while Lulu continues to thrive"
X Link 2023-11-03T12:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ira_joseph The shale producers are no longer free to be the epic destroyers of wealth & value that they were in the past. Investors have them on a leash; also their capacity to ramp prodx is becoming increasingly limited"
X Link 2023-11-06T12:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@mikesimonsen Buffett was talking about buying when prices are crashing because of fear. Doesn't seem to apply to the present housing market. But anyway yes I did what he said and bought some $BETR stock (mortgage issuer). Just a small position :)"
X Link 2023-11-09T21:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@FreightAlley In Maersk's case a big factor was overcapacity built up over the past few years that is now unwinding. To what extent can the U.S. trucking data be explained by unwinding of overcapacity with previous high demand changing to reduced (but not necessarily recessionary) demand"
X Link 2023-11-13T11:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@FreightAlley To what extent is the current collapse a flushing out of excess capacity vs recessionary deterioration in the economy My $XPO stock has been going up and $ODFL has been holding up quite well. I guess they are beneficiaries when smaller players collapse"
X Link 2023-11-19T10:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@AB32432219 I think the most important data to compare with 09-10 would be storage surplus/deficit in terms of days supply. But I'm lacking the motivation to go digging for that so far. will just assume that its in the same ballpark as now"
X Link 2023-11-21T18:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@EnergyCynic As others have said a thesis that relies on discipline by the shale players won't end well. But the Saudis know this and they wouldn't have gone down this path unless they were sure that shale production is peaking & limited capacity to ramp up more"
X Link 2023-11-30T16:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@degiorgiod @andrepaltry I'm not degenerating them instead I'm elevating the person I follow based on his credentials which I expect (but don't know for sure) are superior to the credentials of those who work at the met shops"
X Link 2023-12-02T13:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@campbe14425505 @EnergyCynic If WTI stays low I expect Biden will get back into enforcement mode with the Iran sanctions. Otherwise he will be hammered about this by the GOP in the election campaign and he surely knows that. Americans know Iran is sponsoring & encouraging those militants"
X Link 2023-12-04T05:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@USAEnergyNatGas Suggest you pay more attention to the winter weather outlook from 4th week Dec onwards and bear in mind that Citadel HF has $62B AUM and a fondness for commodity trading esp. #natgas. They can blow up your shorts at any time if they feel so inclined"
X Link 2023-12-06T20:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@corgipapi1 @USAEnergyNatGas FWIW I respect him a lot based on his track record and professionalism. But have a different & bullish view based on the weather outlook this winter. The bearish groupthink of the pros & their mets is leading them astray regarding this IMHO"
X Link 2023-12-06T20:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"For those following this topic the debate between @jhomenuk and @nynjpaweather in the reply thread of this post is worth checking out: (2/2) #natgas"
X Link 2023-12-10T05:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheLongInvest It's a big mystery for investors & shareholders why $BABA management refuses to implement a serious buyback program in their current situation where their cash & FCF are so much while the stock is so beaten down. Their refusal to do this sends a strange & worrying signal"
X Link 2023-12-10T12:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ValueNotDeadYet @TheLongInvest If you are referring to the VIE structure there's so much misunderstanding of that. $Baba shareholders own a stake in the Cayman Islands-registered holding company which in turn owns directly and entirely the core e-commerce businesses (Tmall & Taobao) that generate . (1/n)"
X Link 2023-12-10T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ValueNotDeadYet @TheLongInvest the bulk of the company's profits at present. The holding company (& hence shareholders) also owns the cash on balance sheet. VIE structure is only used for businesses in "sensitive domains" direct foreign ownership is forbidden. (Baba is officially a foreign co in China.) (2/n)"
X Link 2023-12-10T14:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CarnivoreTradrZ @TheLongInvest That's one possible explanation. Here are two more: 1) Xi told them to only return a small amount of $ to shareholders. 2) Management are just too clueless to know that a serious buyback program is what they need to do in this situation"
X Link 2023-12-10T20:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"As for how we get out of the upcoming Pacific jet torch pattern later this looks like the way: (3/4)"
X Link 2023-12-11T06:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"For reference here are the [--] U.S. weather regimes. The Pacific Trough is the upcoming one with the jetstream torch and the Greenland High is the one we probably transition to afterwards - a much better one :) (4/4)"
X Link 2023-12-11T06:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Something to cheer up the #natgas bulls. This is [---] hours out so can't really be taken seriously as a prediction of what will happen more an indication of what could happen. But still"
X Link 2023-12-15T12:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Can add that this is the expected transition from the Pacific Trough regime (which we are in now) to the Greenland High regime (which the forecast above shows) when the PV weakens (as it is predicted to at the end of Dec)"
X Link 2023-12-15T13:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@CelsiusEnergyFM The positive price action after the open shows the market is looking beyond Dec now and seeing more bullish weather next month"
X Link 2023-12-18T07:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ValueNotDeadYet Baba and Tencent are my main ones also have Pinduoduo $PDD. Tencent also v. cheap but need to look beyond the P/E to see it bc a lot of the value is in their investments in other co's"
X Link 2023-12-19T12:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@michaelxpettis @markets But don't forget that the Chinese govt (or regional govt's) control the property prices and keep them high by limiting the amount of land released for property development. This is one of the ways China transfers wealth from individuals to the state"
X Link 2023-12-20T08:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@dalibali2 You will regret shorting my $LULU. Wishing you good luck with the others though"
X Link 2023-12-20T11:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Trinhnomics Great thread thanks Sounds like you see China improving in [----]. Bullish on China stocks"
X Link 2023-12-21T13:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ZmansEnrgyBrain This is hideous My worst fear realized as a $CPE shareholder. The buyout premium is a joke. The shareholders need to block this. We don't care about the multiple just wanted the huge FCF yield $CPE would generate in future with oil at $100"
X Link 2024-01-04T14:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@USAEnergyNatGas If the storage surplus is completely wiped out by the end of March what price do you think the front month should be at that time"
X Link 2024-01-05T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@dailydirtnap Olof Palme was assassinated gunned down in the street. Is that what you're referring to with "Sweden eventually figured it out""
X Link 2024-01-10T03:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"#natgas With the way the winter is shaping up looks like the storage surplus could be completely wiped out by the end of March. What price should April & [----] strip trade at if that happens Seems to me should be at least $4 to support normal drilling program in Hville"
X Link 2024-01-10T12:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@HFI_Research Tencent is even cheaper than it looks since a lot of the value is in their investments which is not reflected in the P/E"
X Link 2024-01-17T12:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@DiveBomb321 @HFI_Research It seems there are may traders looking at Tencent $TCEHY and $BABA these days and thinking they might "do a $META " ($85 to $360+ after a huge selloff). I'm not sure if that's bullish or bearish"
X Link 2024-01-17T15:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Buying the capitulation selloff in $PLUG ahead of the business update next Tuesday. The latest earnings call indicated the update will be good this time including financing arranged & positive gross margin this year"
X Link 2024-01-17T17:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Over the past few days $PLUG has become my biggest position. Can't resist a falling knife :) A very misunderstood company. Current outlook is ok & future prospects are great both for $PLUG and the #hydrogen industry in general"
X Link 2024-01-20T03:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This was why I added to my $hnu position last Friday and again on Monday (the circled trades below). Now ramped to my max for risk-on in this trade :)"
X Link 2024-01-24T17:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Just to clarify "ramped to my max" doesn't mean all-in on this trade. It's just the maximum that I'm willing to risk on the widow maker"
X Link 2024-01-24T17:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@JavierBlas Not only is his giving the Saudis the middle finger he is giving it to his shareholders too"
X Link 2024-02-02T16:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Looks like China's stock market may have bottomed with a major low for the medium term and perhaps also for the long term. Absolute puke-fest in China. This is one of the few times the Shanghai Composite closed at a 3-year low and over the past [--] days an average of more than [--] stocks declined for every advancer. They bounced after the others but this is the Lucy-football of stock markets. https://t.co/TpX52SEpSd Absolute puke-fest in China. This is one of the few times the Shanghai Composite closed at a 3-year low and over the past [--] days an average of more than [--] stocks declined for every"
X Link 2024-02-03T12:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@hussmanjp If you remove the "magnificent 7" and do the comparison for the remaining [---] stocks in the S&P500 how does it look then"
X Link 2024-02-07T06:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"A big factor in the #natgas selloff yesterday was apparently the weather models pulling back from a major PV event in mid Feb. Well today the models are saying the PV event is back on the cards even more than before. So natgas regains yesterday's losses today"
X Link 2024-02-07T09:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Holy_Helicity Rule nr [--] of knifecatching: Don't load the boat until there's a margin of safety (= an unsustainably low price). I've been a bit undisciplined with this one it's 15% of account now but still plenty of room for boat loading on a capitulation flush to $1.70-1.50 if it happens"
X Link 2024-02-08T22:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Holy_Helicity It's starting to remind me of my recent knifecatching of $PLUG. Was down 20% at the bottom but good profits followed. Over the past few days $PLUG has become my biggest position. Can't resist a falling knife :) A very misunderstood company. Current outlook is ok & future prospects are great both for $PLUG and the #hydrogen industry in general. Over the past few days $PLUG has become my biggest position. Can't resist a falling knife :) A very misunderstood company. Current outlook is ok & future prospects are great both for $PLUG and the #hydrogen industry in general"
X Link 2024-02-08T22:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@LalaniNarendra Nothing is settled for the PV event yet still waiting to see if & when it happens and how it will play out. The models have been fluctuating a lot but FWIW the latest updates are moving in a significantly colder direction"
X Link 2024-02-11T09:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@LalaniNarendra You're welcome. I'm a global itinerant currently in Asia"
X Link 2024-02-11T09:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ValueNotDeadYet For lower growth companies the only time the market cares about FCF is when they use it to aggressively buy back their stock. E.g. some of mine ( $DBX $SIG $EXPE.) have been going up recently bc of this. (continued)"
X Link 2024-02-11T10:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@LalaniNarendra It means I don't see a limit on how low it can go in the short term. $1.8 $1.5 $1.0. Previously I was expecting a replay of [----] where the producers would shut in production at around $1.5. But situation now is different - they might not do it this time"
X Link 2024-02-11T11:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Analysts: #natgas selloff overdone now. "This is where you say enough is enough" says John Woods of JJ Woods Associates who predicts a return to a bull market by the end of March. "You're not going to make money in this market trading short at $1.60.""
X Link 2024-02-16T06:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Rory_Johnston Doesn't have to be either or. H2 fuel cells can be the battery for EVs. Rather than bet based on gut instinct or whatever I'll just watch what the auto co's do. Hyundai is getting into H2 in quite a big way FWIW"
X Link 2024-02-17T10:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Epic Games rather than $META is bringing the Metaverse to life according to YF. Tencent $TCEHY has a 40% stake in Epic - an example of the deep value in Tencent's investments which doesn't show up in usual valuations based on PE etc. Deeply undervalued"
X Link 2024-02-18T08:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@SheDrills @Tonyforever2003 @JohnArnoldFndtn I like offshore & diversified too FWIW. W&T Offshore $WTI & $APA. $WTI to double production over next [--] years (prob sooner). $APA stock includes free call options on Suriname & Alpine High (to be developed when LNG demand boosts natgas price in future)"
X Link 2024-02-18T08:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@SheDrills @DerHenricus I used to be a $CPE investor. With oil at $90-100 they will have huge FCF yield 50% Was v. disappointed it sold so cheaply to $APA. But after looking into it $APA too is v. undervalued with big catalysts (Suriname Alpine High in future). Long $APA now :)"
X Link 2024-02-22T06:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jenstilmanydots Zijin has so much growth potential with assets across the globe this is just one example. Reflects not only the reg environ but also the quality of management considering the humble origins of this co. And trading at roughly half the fwd PE multiple of western peers like $FCX"
X Link 2024-02-24T13:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"As it went with Coherent so it shall go with Marvell $MRVL on their upcoming ER on March [--]. Expecting the shares to pop similarly to $COHR's 20%. The dynamics & market perceptions are remarkably similar; only difference is $MRVL is higher up the tech infrastructure food chain"
X Link 2024-02-24T14:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Full-on knife-catching mode with $MRVL today loading up 25% of the portfolio now. Near term decline vs explosive long-term growth in their data center business. Most analysts raised their PTs $20 to mid $90s after ER but algos have knocked it down to mid $60s"
X Link 2024-03-14T15:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@IvanaSpear Can take this a step further and consider the transformational effect data centers' electricity consumption will have on natural gas demand for power gen. #Natgas producers are a way to play this. Biggest is $EQT although I prefer the Canadian $TOU.TO Power demand from data centers is reshaping the industry. https://t.co/8mM9crqVBO Power demand from data centers is reshaping the industry. https://t.co/8mM9crqVBO"
X Link 2024-03-24T11:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@firstenercast Considering that (i) global industrial growth is about to rebound according to forward indicators and (ii) Germany is replacing their closed nuclear plants with natgas plants I'll channel @Gasino11 and say "the bottom is in" for Euro natgas demand"
X Link 2024-04-10T09:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Prates @jeanpaulprates was a very good CEO at Petrobras who did the best possible job of balancing Lula's agenda with shareholders' interests. His 'Strategic Plan' gave Lula what he claimed he wanted while being ok for shareholders too. (continued) $PBR $PBR.A Brazil pushes out Petrobras CEO names ex-regulator to top job- Reuters https://t.co/xakUCIUglB $PBR $PBR.A Brazil pushes out Petrobras CEO names ex-regulator to top job- Reuters https://t.co/xakUCIUglB"
X Link 2024-05-15T14:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TeddyGambino Canadian oil & gas producers will be paying my pension for the next 20+ years :) $BTE $ATH $TOU $ARX $PEY $SOIL $AXL.V"
X Link 2024-05-17T11:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@HFI_Research Thanks for the idea & good intro to Veren. I'd be interested to know your take on Saturn Oil $SOIL - deep value or value trap"
X Link 2024-05-21T09:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Convertbond They (and the market) know that they will struggle to make money as long as the yield curve is inverted"
X Link 2024-05-30T12:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Rory_Johnston Is there an implicit assumption here that China's GDP growth is going to dramatically slow down in the coming years I would question that. And if strong GDP growth continues then so will their oil demand for non-light vehicle transportation & manufacturing (plastics etc)"
X Link 2024-06-15T22:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
""Plaquemines is ahead of schedule and expected to begin producing LNG in the next few months." The upstart Venture Global raising the bar for efficiency & innovation once again in the #natgas industry. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/banker-lawyer-duo-billions-audacious-001529178.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/banker-lawyer-duo-billions-audacious-001529178.html"
X Link 2024-06-27T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheLongInvest You probably didn't buy $FCX at $9 during the covid selloff before it ran to $50+. I did bigtime :) No I won't be buying $BABA now at $72 bc there are others with better value & growth outlooks: Tencent (up 25% for me while Baba has gone nowhere) $PDD $TME $JD $YUMC"
X Link 2024-06-29T11:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@rks2305 @TheLongInvest $YUMC is one of the best China investment opportunities at present IMO. Growing sales & profits with a long growth runway ahead. And on track to buy back 15% of their outstanding shares this year - this is what a serious buyback program looks like"
X Link 2024-06-30T17:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@rks2305 @TheLongInvest I'm also positive on $BABA for the longterm but I think the property market needs to stabilize and the Chinese need to get their mojo back before $baba's core ecommerce business can get back on a growth trajectory"
X Link 2024-06-30T17:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Well-off #boomers spending their money to enjoy their golden years is a major developing secular theme. For sure they'll be doing lots of travel and will not be so price-sensitive caring more about quality of the experience. Perfect for Expedia $EXPE. https://www.wsj.com/us-news/baby-boomers-drive-economy-d4b72e40 https://www.wsj.com/us-news/baby-boomers-drive-economy-d4b72e40"
X Link 2024-07-08T08:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@jenstilmanydots I wonder how it would have turned out for Ivanhoe $IVN.TO if the Canadian govt in [----] had blocked Zijin (China)'s investment in the Kamoa-Kulaka project in DRC which was crucial for the development of that project and came at a time when no other major players were interested"
X Link 2024-07-08T09:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jenstilmanydots Many people still want "the real thing" (natural diamonds) even if indistinguishable from lab grown. Same with Rolex watches Hermes bags etc - people want real even when fake is perfect & indistinguishable"
X Link 2024-07-12T15:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"This is not only bullish for #copper demand but points to a huge investment opportunity in #battery storage too in China and globally incl. the U.S. Long $FLNC & $EOSE and also the major Chinese battery producer CATL via the China ETF $CNXT. (CATL is 20% of $CNXT.) Per Financial Times #copper: 'Beijing rolls out $800bn investment over six years to upgrade system as shift from coal piles pressure on creaking grid' https://t.co/5jLIIHTqXs Per Financial Times #copper: 'Beijing rolls out $800bn investment over six years to upgrade system as shift from coal piles pressure on creaking grid'"
X Link 2024-07-14T12:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@nataninvesting Regardless of what value investors say the market regards $BABA as a busted growth stock and is giving it same brutal treatment it gives to all busted growth stocks. Compare with $DBX for example. Only thing that will make the sp go up is if/when $BABA gets its growth back"
X Link 2024-07-22T13:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Further evidence for the cyclical upturn in global industrial/manufacturing growth predicted earlier by @businesscycle. Bullish for trucking warehousing & logistics including my $XPO $GXO $RXO. And also for oil & diesel. West Coast imports near all-time highs. Very bullish for 2H trucking. https://t.co/10KjFB8SSl West Coast imports near all-time highs. Very bullish for 2H trucking. https://t.co/10KjFB8SSl"
X Link 2024-07-23T12:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NedDevine45 They didn't borrow more but did a major debt refinancing (pushing out the maturity & at a lower interest rate) which cost $50M and did bolt-on land acquisitions which cost $35M. These one-off costs ate the $ that would have gone to debt paydown this Q"
X Link 2024-07-26T22:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting divergence between #oil and #copper & the US #dollar today. Oil tanking on recession fears while copper shrugs it off and USD is selling off bigtime vs foreign currencies - not the reaction you would expect if U.S. is about to drag the world into a global recession"
X Link 2024-08-02T15:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@GringoInvesting There's also LNG Canada starting commercial operations in mid [----] that's another 2bcf/d. And something in Mexico also"
X Link 2024-08-04T18:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@KoyfinCharts Turns out I have [--] of these: $LULU $SQ & $EXPE. Didn't buy them bc they are close to lowest valuations in a decade though but bc they all have great outlooks for the years ahead IMO and were very cheap considering the value"
X Link 2024-08-04T20:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@JoeTheMiner0 @jenstilmanydots Monthly but the payout size varies since it comes from the reits that make up the eft and they usually pay quarterly but each with their own schedule"
X Link 2024-08-05T11:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$YUMC buybacks: 7% of the outstanding shares in the past year. 5% in H1 of this year. Buying back another 5%+ in H2"
X Link 2024-08-06T17:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"China imports & exports grew nicely in July. The monthly data is noisy but the trend for both exports and imports is clearly up in the past year (see the graph below) indicating China's economy is recovering. China's July trade balance at [-----] billion yuan Prev. [------] bln yuan: #Exports +6.5% y/y #Imports +6.6% y/y Trade balance at $84.65 bln in USD term Est.$99.2 bln #Exports +7.0% y/y Est. +9.5% #Imports +7.2% y/y Est. +3.0% #China #trade #economy https://t.co/xA2rRtBNLj China's July trade balance at [-----] billion yuan Prev. [------] bln yuan: #Exports +6.5% y/y #Imports +6.6% y/y Trade"
X Link 2024-08-08T12:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Today I am #knifecatching Solaris $SLS.TO and Marvell $MRVL. Have big positions in these already but will take advantage of the recent selloff to make them bigger. Buying battleground stocks of great co's when they are beaten up is a good way to make money in the market"
X Link 2024-08-08T12:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@marketplunger1 For coal-fueled dividends think I would rather own a pure play coal miner. E.g. the South African Thungela (the spinoff of Anglo-American's coal business). 15% dividend yield currently"
X Link 2024-08-10T14:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@investmish Analysts are expecting a big recovery in earnings in 2025-26 giving $EL a 2026(est) PE of 17x which is cheap if it can get back to being the quality growth co that it was in the past. They might be too optimistic but seems decent risk-reward for taking a small $EL position now"
X Link 2024-08-11T14:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@jenstilmanydots Wow. Australia (BHP's home country) was not a "hostile foreign power" when last I checked"
X Link 2024-08-13T10:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Expecting a v. good ER from Marvell $MRVL after the close today. Cisco's ER showed enterprises resumed spending on IT networking-related hardware after working through inventories - will boost $MRVL's business segments that had been weak. And then a further boost from AI"
X Link 2024-08-29T14:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Marvell $MRVL: A v. good ER as expected :) And the CEO had an important msg for market: those bogeymen some think are under the bed are not real $MRVL can indeed flourish vs the goliath Broadcom just like Nutanix vs VMware Spotify vs Apple & others. https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1829158019625824445 Expecting a v. good ER from Marvell $MRVL after the close today. Cisco's ER showed enterprises resumed spending on IT networking-related hardware after working through inventories - will boost $MRVL's business segments that had been weak. And then a further boost from AI."
X Link 2024-08-30T16:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"#China's manufacturing PMIs in recent months suggest that the high-tech-focused ETF #CNXT is a better bet than consumer-focused ETF $KWEB or individual stocks like $BABA. Many of #CNXT's top holdings are v. cheap co's with strong rev. & profit growth. https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1830272118929682797 China manufacturing PMI for August: Bifurcation between sector performances continues. Strongly expanding: food beverages rail high-tech & equipment manufacturing. Strongly contracting: energy-intensive sectors (petrochem refining/smelting.) Neutral: consumer goods."
X Link 2024-09-01T16:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$CNXT used to be a popular China ETF for Westerners in the past but has been forgotten and left for dead now and currently trading near all-time lows. It's NAV of $14m and avg. volume of 2K are tiny compared to what they used to be in the past"
X Link 2024-09-01T16:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"As a generalist & relative newcomer to O&G investing my working hypothesis is that inventories are to #oil what value is to stocks and Ben Graham's famous quote applies: "Market is a voting machine in ST but in LT it's a weighing machine" (of stocks value or oil inventories)"
X Link 2024-09-04T14:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@CRUDEOIL231 How about a repeat of [----] The present situation seems similar to the big selloff in early [----] which was also driven by weak China demand fears & connected to a downturn in their property market that time. The similarity is supported by this: https://x.com/OilHeadlineNews/status/1819733529095258226 Hedge Funds Turn Bearish on Commodities - For the First Time Since [----] https://t.co/6c0utviIdS https://x.com/OilHeadlineNews/status/1819733529095258226 Hedge Funds Turn Bearish on Commodities - For the First Time Since [----] https://t.co/6c0utviIdS"
X Link 2024-09-07T17:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jenstilmanydots You're welcome :) FWIW I'm expecting the opposite of recession now expecting the economy to revive and start booming with the Fed & other CBs cutting rates. Will help my oil & commodities stocks a lot I hope :)"
X Link 2024-09-10T02:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"FWIW these are my current top ideas: 1) Solaris $SLS.TO $SLSR & Solgold $SOLG.L: Developing major new #copper mines in Ecuador. Supply demand for copper in the years ahead. Risky but potential gains of 5x-10x for both based on their NPVs. Will need to wait some years though"
X Link 2024-09-11T04:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Top idea nr 2: Marvell $MRVL. A major beneficiary of the #AI supercycle. Currently a battleground stock & cheap bc HFs think it will struggle vs the goliath Broadcom. They should check how it worked out for Nutanix vs VMware Spotify vs Apple Music & others. V. high quality"
X Link 2024-09-11T04:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Top idea nr [--] $CNXT continued: But in practice the attention these days is on the big consumer-focused internet players like $BABA $KWEB. $CNXT will require patience; good things won't happen until the Chinese stop lusting for the U.S. nasdaq and start buying their own one"
X Link 2024-09-11T06:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Top idea nr 6: Fluence $FLNC. Utility-scale battery storage is an explosive growth area and $FLNC is an emerging leader. Still a battleground stock & cheap trading at 15x 2026(E) earnings with 2026(E) earning/revenue growth being 52%/18%"
X Link 2024-09-11T06:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"My other ideas & bets include $EOSE $EOLS $EXPE $LULU $TPR $SIG $REAL $BETR $IOVA $AZN $RTX $SQ $NU $STNE a bunch of Canadian oil & gas names some Chinese ones and last but not least some problematic Russians"
X Link 2024-09-11T06:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Forgot to mention Applovin $APP. Basically an adtech AI play. A battleground stock which HFs have a misguided fondness for shorting. Hard to say that #AI is overhyped when this one trades at 16x 2026(E) earnings with 2026E earnings/rev growth of 27%/14%"
X Link 2024-09-11T08:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"It is also testing China's and the CPC's tolerance for Xi. #Chinas Deepening Slowdown Tests Xis Tolerance for Growth Miss A slew of major indicators undershot expectations in August Goldman Sachs Citigroup Morgan Stanley lower forecasts https://t.co/U3MPvX0VDn #Chinas Deepening Slowdown Tests Xis Tolerance for Growth Miss A slew of major indicators undershot expectations in August Goldman Sachs Citigroup Morgan Stanley lower forecasts https://t.co/U3MPvX0VDn"
X Link 2024-09-16T12:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Kevin_AGraham Actually lots of people care about this and have been pounding the table about how cheap they are for a long time. What they don't realize is that $BABA and the others are simply getting the "busted growth stock" treatment with a China discount. Similar to $DBX $MTCH $PYPL"
X Link 2024-09-20T12:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Kevin_AGraham FWIW I prefer Tencent and $PDD since unlike $BABA they have decent growth. And prefer $JD to $BABA since $JD doesn't complete directly with the beast $PDD. Also $YUMC is better value v. cheap with growing revenue & profits and huge buybacks"
X Link 2024-09-20T12:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fed cut & China demand is lifting #copper: In China premiums on imported copper rising; inventories falling. "Macro conditions turning positive now. consensus is that the US economy will be fine inflation will slow." Oil demand boost next #oott https://finance.yahoo.com/news/metals-enjoy-strong-week-boost-063721744.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/metals-enjoy-strong-week-boost-063721744.html"
X Link 2024-09-21T11:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The China stocks ETFs $CNXT and $ASHR have both sold off down to their historical all-time lows. Not hard to guess what happens next"
X Link 2024-09-24T12:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@SethCL Question is was the past couple of years recessionary enough (was described as a "rolling recession" by some) to give the "Fed cutting after recession" outcome this time There's some evidence the answer is yes. E.g. this: https://x.com/RBAdvisors/status/1833187391504277917 The early stages of #inventory building is typically a sign of recovery/expansion and not a sign of #economic weakness or recession. https://t.co/q2Ym5Ty79k https://x.com/RBAdvisors/status/1833187391504277917 The early stages of #inventory building is typically a sign of recovery/expansion and not a sign of"
X Link 2024-09-25T13:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Sold for $3.70 the extra $SLS.TO shares I bought a few weeks ago at $2.60 and put the $ into $BTE.TO @ $3.90 to take advantage of Mr. Market's latest gift. From one knifecatching to the next :) Still have a large position in Solaris $SLS.TO that I will hold for the longterm"
X Link 2024-09-26T16:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ericnuttall Oil & producer equities with high torque like Baytex $BTE is Mr. Market's latest gift. But of course most people will decline it and want to chase the things that have already run up like China & copper"
X Link 2024-09-27T20:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"From a fundamentals viewpoint gold should have priced in Fed easing by now. Next the market is likely to start pricing in revival & boom in the global economy. That will be -ve for gold and +ve for oil"
X Link 2024-09-29T14:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"But I remain v. bullish on gold for the longterm as a safe store of value while the US and other countries continue to debase their currencies with increasing debt-fueled fiscal spending (basically money printing)"
X Link 2024-09-29T14:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@NuggetCapital Profits on tech copper & gold stocks are helping fund my oil buying . Been loading up bigtime on $BTE down here"
X Link 2024-10-01T11:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ericnuttall Yep. The Saudis regard oil in the ground as a kind of currency and don't like to change it to that other currency US dollars unless the exchange rate is good"
X Link 2024-10-01T22:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Based on how it went with the retail investor-driven boom & bust in Chinese stocks in [----] I expect the current boom to continue for as long as the govt stimulus/support announcements keep coming and top out when they stop. Expecting a few more weeks of this. (1/2) #IMPORTANT #China will hold a press conference on Tuesday October [--] [----] at 10:00 AM(2:00 AM GMT). Senior officials from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will provide an update on the "comprehensive implementation of a package of incremental policies to https://t.co/Y4b0wXIYaB #IMPORTANT #China will hold a"
X Link 2024-10-06T11:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Wouldn't be surprised if the China ETFs $CNXT & $ASHR get back to their [----] peaks or at least their highs in [----]. (2/2)"
X Link 2024-10-06T11:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@AustinBL85 I've been posting about $CNXT ever since the boom started (and actually before too). E.g. this: https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1838554908792098931 Sounds like this monetary stimulus from China's CB will be the catalyst for the Chinese to start buying their own stocks (instead of the local ETFs tracking the U.S. Nasdaq). Westerners can piggyback their buying with ETFs like $CNXT (my preference) or $AHSR. https://x.com/SaItinerant/status/1838554908792098931 Sounds like this monetary stimulus from China's CB will be the catalyst for the Chinese to start buying their own stocks"
X Link 2024-10-06T12:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"This explains the pop in #China stocks just now and the accompanying pop in #oil & #copper prices. Prospect of announcement of the hoped for fiscal stimulus on Saturday. #BREAKING CHINA FINANCE MINISTRY SCHEDULES OCT 12(SAT. 10:00 AM CST 2:00 AM GMT) PRESS BRIEFING ON FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. #China $HSI $SHCOMP $KWEB $FXI $HXC $DRAG https://t.co/QV4jl8NdWF #BREAKING CHINA FINANCE MINISTRY SCHEDULES OCT 12(SAT. 10:00 AM CST 2:00 AM GMT) PRESS BRIEFING ON FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. #China $HSI $SHCOMP $KWEB $FXI $HXC $DRAG https://t.co/QV4jl8NdWF"
X Link 2024-10-09T05:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Just as Biden has his hand on the oil price to keep it low so does Xi have his hand on the China stock market to keep it going up :)"
X Link 2024-10-09T05:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@garquake @SciFiGreen54 My guess is it's about the coming winter. La nina winters tend to be cold in Canada (but not necessarily in the US). Cold winter will take care of the current huge gas storage surplus in Canada"
X Link 2024-10-09T14:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@liqian_ren I'll interpret "relatively big" as meaning similar size to major stimulus they have done in the past e.g. for GFC. But this time the main focus will be on stimulating consumption rather than infrastructure spending. Clearly they are still working out the details. Ok I guess"
X Link 2024-10-12T09:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@liqian_ren Probably more accurate to say the main focus areas are directly stimulating consumption stabilizing the property market and resolving local govt debt situation. The last two will help with the first one though"
X Link 2024-10-12T09:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@GringoInvesting The outlook is for huge ramp up in their data center business custom asic in particular. Analysts expecting them to be at 24x PE in [----] with earnings growth of 18% (data from seekingalpha). For comparison: 2026(E) PE of 28x for nvidia 23x for marvell"
X Link 2024-10-16T09:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@GringoInvesting FWIW I have 20% of my account in Marvell $MRVL. They are the "value play" & battleground stock in this space. If the analysts are right in [----] they will have PE of 23x with earnings/revenue growth of 35%/21% - 2026(E) PEG ratio of 23/35 = [----]. Peter Lynch would approve :)"
X Link 2024-10-16T09:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Why did the CEO of Marvell $MRVL suddenly decide to buy $1M of stock recently when most of the time he is selling stock from his SBC via an automated trading plan What does he know that we don't ;) https://www.barrons.com/articles/marvell-stock-buy-ceo-7786e71c https://www.barrons.com/articles/marvell-stock-buy-ceo-7786e71c"
X Link 2024-10-17T22:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Finally some +ve econ data out of China. Q3 GDP Sept retail sales industrial growth & fixed asset investment all beating expectations: ⚡#China GDP data: Q3 GDP 4.6% y/y Est.+4.5% Q1-Q3 GDP 4.8% y/y Prev.+5.0% 1Sept retail sales 3.2% y/y Est.2.5% 2Sept industrial growth 5.4% y/y Est.4.5% 3Jan-Sept fixed asset investment 3.4% y/y Est.3.3% Sept Unemployment 5.1% Prev. 5.3% 1/ Thread #EconTwitter https://t.co/B3MeWF9CNG ⚡#China GDP data: Q3 GDP 4.6% y/y Est.+4.5% Q1-Q3 GDP 4.8% y/y Prev.+5.0% 1Sept retail sales 3.2% y/y Est.2.5% 2Sept industrial growth 5.4% y/y Est.4.5% 3Jan-Sept fixed asset"
X Link 2024-10-18T02:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Also an announcement of more monetary stimulus from the PBOC (China's CB). These RRR cuts are significant - they were the main juice for the big China stocks boom back in [----]. https://x.com/Sino_Market/status/1847102939384762596 https://x.com/Sino_Market/status/1847102939384762596"
X Link 2024-10-18T02:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@GringoInvesting Yes they compete with $avgo in custom asics and it's expected to be their biggest growth driver going forward. Besides that they are the leader in optical interconnects w. strong growth expected there too. A thread w. more details if you're interested: https://x.com/IvanaSpear/status/1780627187798041072 https://x.com/IvanaSpear/status/1780627187798041072"
X Link 2024-10-18T14:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@GringoInvesting Can add that $mrvl has several other business lines outside of data center - they are currently coming out of a cyclical trough and provide a backstop & margin of safety if the data center/AI boom doesn't live up to expectations in future"
X Link 2024-10-18T14:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@KJuice29 @GringoInvesting At the risk of jinxing it yes I think it could double in [--] months and am expecting it to go much higher over the next [--] years. It is too cheap right now and the CEO has a track record of being v. conservative in his guidance"
X Link 2024-10-18T19:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"In their earnings reports manufacturers & other cyclical industries co's are saying the bottom is in for their earnings growth. - Bullish for #oil/energy & commodities demand. #oott #natgas #macro https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ceos-saying-bad-gets-earnings-073624202.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ceos-saying-bad-gets-earnings-073624202.html"
X Link 2024-10-29T10:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jenstilmanydots Definitely some serious issues but mining devel & operations continue nevertheless. Am curious if you agree with assertion in video below that the golden age of mining exploration was 1975-1995 for Chile 1985-2005 for Peru & currently ongoing in Ecuador https://www.youtube.com/watchv=y4RXCrJL-8s https://www.youtube.com/watchv=y4RXCrJL-8s"
X Link 2024-10-31T11:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"China local govt's to be recapitalized with 10T yuan (6T confirmed + another 4T later). Presumably this funds stimulus/support for property market & consumption but details still TBA. This level of support expected but market frustrated at lack of stimulus details so far. #China Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress - Summary ➡ China announced a [--] trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) program to refinance local government debt as Beijing rolls out more measures to support a slowing economy facing new risks from the reelection of #China Standing Committee of the National Peoples"
X Link 2024-11-08T11:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is bullish for $CNXT. It was down 8% on Friday but should recover all of that today since the Chinext index is back up to its high in China trading today. Meanwhile $BABA and the other usual suspects continue to sell off. $CNXT continues to be the better China play"
X Link 2024-11-11T08:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NuggetCapital These days there's ample supply of most stuff that consumers & companies want & need (housing is an exception) so no reason for inflation to take off again. This should also juice the econ along with easing by Fed & CBs. Strong econ w. low/moderate inflation is v. possible"
X Link 2024-11-11T12:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Another sign of the new narrative taking hold was the big up-moves on high volume in my copper mine developers Solaris $SLS.TO and Solgold $SOLG.L on Friday while the Nasdaq sold off 2%. (Been buying the dip in $SOLG.L bigtime recently - Mr. Market's latest gift.)"
X Link 2024-11-16T11:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"BTW for bonds & reits I think the outlook is still more bullish than bearish. More gradual rate cuts still means cuts. And not much inflation pressure these days with ample supply of energy commods & most other stuff. (Housing is an exception.)"
X Link 2024-11-16T11:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Mark_IKN The Solgold chart from when I bought looks better than the $FCX chart did when I was loading up on that one during the covid selloff. But I'll be disappointed if Solgold only gives me a 5-bagger like $FCX"
X Link 2024-11-21T22:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@BobEUnlimited Gold/oil & gold/copper price ratios at historical highs says econ weakness not strength. The nonconsensus view for [----] is global industrial growth revives and takes off despite Trump tariffs oil & copper prices rise & their ratios w. gold reverse. I.e. 2016-17 again"
X Link 2024-11-24T05:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Marvell $MRVL finally delivers the earnings report I've been waiting all year for. The AI data center-fueled rocketship has blasted off :)"
X Link 2024-12-04T15:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"With $MRVL being 20% of my account I naturally take a bit of profit on the 20%+ pop today to catch more of that falling knife Baytex $BTE.TO. Feels like max bearishness & capitulation of the #oil bulls today. With gold-oil ratio at historic high. - memories of [----] ;) #oott"
X Link 2024-12-04T15:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is probably a big part of the reason why $btc and other risk-on stuff is going up now: The upswing in liquidity https://t.co/qMc8QsTmtm The upswing in liquidity https://t.co/qMc8QsTmtm"
X Link 2024-12-07T15:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Bitcoin $btc has shown itself to be the best global liquidity sponge so far. https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoin-a-global-liquidity-barometer/ https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoin-a-global-liquidity-barometer/"
X Link 2024-12-07T15:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@NuggetCapital I'd love to be able to buy more $BTE at $3 CAD would do wonders for my cost basis :) But expecting WTI crude @ $80+ most of [----] not $65. When the deluge of oversupply fails to appear and global macro doesn't fall off a cliff but gets better inventories will matter again"
X Link 2024-12-08T11:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Started a position in Kosmos Energy $KOS today. O&G explorer & producer w. offshore ops in GoM & Africa. Strongly growing production incl. FLNG project w. partner $BP slated to start producing by end of Q4. Beaten down share price on -ve sentiment & couple of fixable setbacks"
X Link 2024-12-09T15:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$KOS market cap of $1.7B & debt $2.7B means small increase in EV gives big increase in market cap & sp. EBITDA projected to grow to $2B next year. With current 3.8x multiple (in line w. peers) this implies EV $7.6B - market cap (& sp) almost triples to $4.9B"
X Link 2024-12-09T15:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"EIA now sees oil deficit in [----] reversing their previous forecast for surplus Well if inventory levels don't matter to the bears I'm sure they can cook up a way to make the deficit not matter too. #oott https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-sees-small-global-oil-175303031.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-sees-small-global-oil-175303031.html"
X Link 2024-12-10T19:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PzzaSlize Haha no plan to go back to the cursed futures ETFs but I'm long a bunch of Canadian natgas producer equities"
X Link 2024-12-11T13:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@batman10023 @NuggetCapital Mostly supply so far. E.g. in the latest forecast yesterday from the US EIA they now expect a small deficit in [--] reversing their previous forecast for surplus. A demand boost is also possible it the global econ improves (my expectation but not the consensus one so far)"
X Link 2024-12-11T22:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Shipping_VIE This is not accurate. Tullow expects (as of Nov 28) to have +ve FCF of $150M-$200M in [----]. Their 1H FCF was only -ve due to capex & cash taxes being heavily weighted to H1. And the [----] FCF is after subtracting a $40M overdue gas payment from Ghana govt. (1/2)"
X Link 2024-12-16T12:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Profits on Baytex $BTE in the high $4s CAD helped me to load up on Marvell $MRVL when it sold off down to $60 earlier this year. And now profits on $MRVL at $120+ are helping me load up on $BTE $KOS $WTI while they are deep values at current ridiculous prices. (1/2)"
X Link 2024-12-16T16:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yeah I know it's politically incorrect to be into both tech and oil/gas & commodities but its been good for my trading this year :)"
X Link 2024-12-16T16:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The HF geniuses who are hardcore shorting $BTE $KOS $WTI now are probably the same ones who sold me the $MRVL shares at $60 and $APP at $58 when they were shorting those earlier this year. Those guys never learn lol :)"
X Link 2024-12-16T18:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NuggetCapital Congrats on the good call. For me its been a chance to load up bigtime and get my cost basis down to a $3-handle. If WTI crude $80 most of the time in future (my expectation) then $BTE & $SOIL will be the biggest winners with their enormous FCF yields (con't)"
X Link 2024-12-18T02:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@GringoInvesting @businesscycle The interview starts at 1:01:10. If you click the link it should take you exactly to that place"
X Link 2024-12-18T15:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@GringoInvesting @businesscycle From what I've seen their leading indicators have been accurate predictors of the things they are meant to predict. But sometimes ECRI maybe read too much into what the indicators were saying"
X Link 2024-12-18T15:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@NuggetCapital @sohaibab9 $TVE is the only oil stock i've made money on this year after buying in June. And from looking at the price charts history says that where $TVE leads $BTE will follow. Different this time I'm betting not :)"
X Link 2024-12-27T09:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@sohaibab9 @NuggetCapital I was a shareholder in Ranger at the time of the acquisition so I know it well. (That's how i first heard of BTE and got interested in CDN O&G names.) Ranger was well-regarded by US investors & analysts but needs WTI $80 for good outcome and that's my bet for longterm"
X Link 2024-12-27T10:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@sohaibab9 @NuggetCapital BTE has v. good acreage in Canada and I expect a big boost to their YE reserves there after their exploration work this year similar to the boost that TVE had. The Ranger acquisition makes it more of leveraged bet on high oil prices; suits me fine since I want to make that bet"
X Link 2024-12-27T10:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@rks2305 @marketplunger1 Nice pick. I also like this one a lot and started a position recently. Reminds me of $real when I bought in dec 2023: solidly growing revenue rapid progress towards profitability structural tailwinds but deeply undervalued due to irrationally -ve market sentiment"
X Link 2025-01-06T15:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@rks2305 @marketplunger1 $Real took off in H2 of last year. This year it could be $accd's turn :)"
X Link 2025-01-06T15:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Big_Orrin The point is that Canada doesn't need to stop the supply to the US just tighten it enough that the US side eats the tariff costs to get the oil they need. The US refiners don't care who pays for the tariff as long as it's not them. They will pass it on to US consumers if needed"
X Link 2025-01-15T16:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Big_Orrin I think it would be healthier/better for Canada to just learn the lesson of this experience: they need to develop other export markets instead of depending on the US. That's what China did. SE Asia now China's biggest & fastest growing export market while US smaller & shrinking"
X Link 2025-01-15T19:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Big_Orrin So what if the tariffs remain forever. Canada can reciprocate & needs to develop other markets stop depending on the US. Reminds me of how New Zealand had to find new markets for their dairy exports after UK joined the EU (long time ago). They managed it and so can Canada"
X Link 2025-01-15T19:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@SolGold_plc @RedCloudFS If you aren't doing this already please explore the possibilities of funding from private equity firms. They are getting increasingly interested in financing major energy transition projects - including new mines to extract materials needed for the transition"
X Link 2025-01-18T17:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@marketplunger1 Junior copper miners developing confirmed major resources. I have Solgold $SOLG.L & Solaris $SLS.TO. Also Salazar $SRL.V which has a 25% carried stake in the El Domo mine being constructed by their partner Silvercorp. All trading at small fractions of NAV"
X Link 2025-01-20T21:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"But I 'm grateful to the HFs for knocking $EOLS share price down to levels where it is obvious value & big margin of safety. Normally such a stock would trade at a nosebleed valuation - off limits for me. Longterm guidance of $700M revenue by [----] makes $EOLS a likely 3x"
X Link 2025-01-22T14:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"What other stocks are the HF shorts likely to get their asses handed to them in in the months ahead Likely candidates IMO: Iovance $IOVA W&T Offshore $WTI & Fluence $FLNC. Short interest 20% 12% 12% resp. I've been buying the selloffs in these too just like with $EOLS"
X Link 2025-01-22T14:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Prediction: In the future Alberta will erect a big statue of The Donald in central Calgary in appreciation of him giving Canada the kick up the ass it so badly needed to finally build out its energy infrastructure and fulfill its destiny as an energy-exporting superpower. #COM"
X Link 2025-02-02T15:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
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