# ![@Rob_Jones19 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1208709673.png) @Rob_Jones19 Rob

Rob posts on X about liquidity, dashboard, in the, debt the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1208709673/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1208709673/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] -31%
- [--] Month [------] -34%
- [--] Months [-------] -83%
- [--] Year [---------] +8,937%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1208709673/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1208709673/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +5.90%
- [--] Month [--] +2%
- [--] Months [---] +66%
- [--] Year [---] +653%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1208709673/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1208709673/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +0.56%
- [--] Month [-----] +2.30%
- [--] Months [-----] +87%
- [--] Year [-----] +286%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1208709673/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1208709673/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  70% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  45.45% [countries](/list/countries)  1.82% [stocks](/list/stocks)  1.82% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  0.91%

**Social topic influence**
[liquidity](/topic/liquidity) #655, [dashboard](/topic/dashboard) 29.09%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 24.55%, [debt](/topic/debt) 21.82%, [update](/topic/update) 20%, [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) 16.36%, [gold](/topic/gold) 13.64%, [$btc](/topic/$btc) 10%, [quick](/topic/quick) 10%, [the new](/topic/the-new) 7.27%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@yxinsights](/creator/undefined) [@raoulgmi](/creator/undefined) [@realvision](/creator/undefined) [@robjones19s](/creator/undefined) [@crossbordercap](/creator/undefined) [@rjfulton](/creator/undefined) [@0ut3r3](/creator/undefined) [@elonmusk](/creator/undefined) [@cryptowriter](/creator/undefined) [@satoshitacomoto](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [USELESS COIN (USELESS)](/topic/$useless) [Ethereum (ETH)](/topic/$eth) [Solana (SOL)](/topic/$sol) [aura (AURA)](/topic/$aura) [PAX Gold (PAXG)](/topic/pax-gold) [Value Liquidity (VALUE)](/topic/value-liquidity) [Brett (BRETT)](/topic/$brett) [MOO DENG (MOODENG)](/topic/$moodeng) [Feisty Doge NFT (NFD)](/topic/$nfd)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"⚠ PAX Gold (PAXG) risk update PAXG has now moved firmly into a high-risk zone on our stablecoin risk framework. If youre using PAXG as a store of value or as collateral my view is simple: this is no longer an appropriate place to park capital. High risk and capital preservation dont belong in the same sentence. I would be rotating out and reassessing alternatives rather than hoping conditions improve. Rob https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007871818984505601 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007871818984505601"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2007871818984505601)  2026-01-04T17:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"FV update from the multi language dashboard 😏: $BTC Fair Value (liquidity model) is sitting around $113.7k right now while $BTC is still trading way below it. By pretty much every metric we track $BTC is oversold. The important part: liquidity inflows are starting to flow more freely again and with SLR changes now in place Im expecting $BTC to start closing these gaps sooner rather than later. Weve also got massive regulatory changes landing in Q1. And even with JP + Trump at each others throats our probability gauge still points to another rate cut within the next few weeks. (get this on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2011183904791879782)  2026-01-13T21:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Alt League update on the dashboard. Weve added a small link next to every token that takes you straight to its CoinGecko page so you can quickly check supply fundamentals and other info without leaving the table. Weve also added $BRETT $PUMP $MOODENG and $NFD to the league. Well likely remove a few underperformers later this week as part of the usual clean-up. https://rjalphadash.co.uk/en/alt-league https://rjalphadash.co.uk/en/alt-league"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2015810444926083308)  2026-01-26T15:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"The only thing that really matters in investing is time horizon. Thats it. Most people dont build or need complex tools because they love data. They need them because their time horizon is too short. We dress that up as risk management but the reality is simpler. Most people just cant sit through a 40% drawdown without panicking even when theyd happily bet their life on the asset being up 200% over the next few years. Only invest what you can afford to lose doesnt mean your investment into Bitcoin is going to zero it wont. There's a near 0% chance. It means the moment you need the money is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2017412888986849442)  2026-01-31T01:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I treat $XMR pullbacks as opportunities. Dips are for buying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2017925746476425541)  2026-02-01T11:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I saw that Truflation is at 0.86%. Which is absolutely crazy Our gauge currently reads 1.56% and has been moving ahead of theirs for months. Genuinely confused. I tried to recreate their index using their own published weights and standard inflation data. Housing transportation food health utilities ran the numbers through their methodology. I got 2.12%. That's a pretty big gap that I can't explain. Their data sources must be showing something dramatically different but I can't find what. Our gauge has been leading theirs for the last six months. We move they follow weeks later. And ours"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2018611752204722292)  2026-02-03T09:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Ok Tin hat theory but makes sense. Hear me out I've put a lot of thought over the past week into this. This isn't a bear market. It's coordinated suppression. Among MANY headwinds. There's no liquidity crisis. Credit isn't seizing. Both have slowed but not massively decreased. Positive Fed Positive shadow banking neg TGA - pretty much evens out. Nothing in the macro picture justifies prices sitting here. Headwinds exist yes. But nothing "crash" worthy. Which is why the ones calling for a bear market can't back it up with anything except some lines they've personally drawn on a chart of their"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2018808341598720453)  2026-02-03T22:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Right now is when you find out what your actual risk tolerance is. Everyone thinks theyre fine with risk when price is flat or moving up. When volatility shows up most people realise very quickly theyre not. On the dashboard we dont leave this vague. We define clear risk levels so you can adjust to your own tolerance. Risk Tolerance Levels: Level [--] - Risk-Averse: Bitcoin only follows HODL Index/Risk adverse strategy. Level [--] - Quality Gains: Rotate major assets (BTC/ETH/SOL/BNB/XMR) follows HODL Index Level [--] - Active Management: 90% spot + 5% leverage + 5% alts follows HODL Index Level [--] -"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2019695934855155971)  2026-02-06T08:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Weve rolled out major upgrades to the dashboard over the last couple of hours one of the biggest being a new BTC Market Cycle view. It answers one simple question: where are we in the Bitcoin cycle right now We do this with 12+ years of on-chain data rolled into a single risk score and DCA signal. Right now its firmly in accumulation. Historically this is where patient DCA pays over the next [---] months. This isnt a price target tool and its not for trading tops and bottoms. Its about positioning properly when risk is asymmetric. It sits alongside the rest of the macro liquidity risk and Alt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2020858764073505082)  2026-02-09T13:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Tin hat. JUST IN: White House official says "trillions of dollars" are waiting to enter crypto market JUST IN: White House official says "trillions of dollars" are waiting to enter crypto market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2022394758375838152)  2026-02-13T19:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@yxinsights @RealVision Yeah thats more of in the bull case bucket. I'm trying to be semi conservative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2022952554427277692)  2026-02-15T08:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"New market analysis just dropped on the dashboard. This week covers the [------] jobs revision that changes everything about where the economy actually is. Why the Fed should have cut and what the data now forces them to do next. The Clarity Act stalemate who's really blocking it and why ($6.6 trillion is at stake). Foreign Treasury demand collapsing with China telling banks to reduce exposure. The gold revaluation maths that could fund a massive Bitcoin purchase. And why I think prices are being deliberately suppressed whilst everyone with power positions themselves before the regulatory green"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2021697240423645348)  2026-02-11T21:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"March [----] now showing $2.39 trillion in refinancing already. Bills outstanding just hit $6.99 trillion nearly tripled from pre-COVID levels. Every month is a new record because every short dated bill that matures gets rolled into another short dated bill plus new deficit spending gets piled on top. The government is borrowing a whopping $1.6 trillion per year just to cover the gap between revenue and spending. Interest alone is running at $72 billion per month. They're borrowing to pay interest on borrowing. Its fucking mental This is not sustainable at current rates. Rate cuts aren't"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2022418856916963513)  2026-02-13T21:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$CTC 7/8 Alt League entry last night +15% today Entry system working as designed. This is how you rotate winners. Once the market starts trending this thing is going to PRINT. https://rjalphadash.co.uk/en/alt-league https://rjalphadash.co.uk/en/alt-league"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2022744513958285799)  2026-02-14T18:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"TGA actually hurts the base case by year end. It goes from $0.915T currently to circa $1.00T by December which drains $0.085T from net liquidity. So TGA is a net negative for the full year. But TGA creates massive swings within the year between March to June: TGA drains from $0.96T to $0.72T = +$0.24T liquidity boost. June to November: TGA fills from $0.72T to $1.05T = -$0.33T liquidity drag. So TGA gives a nice boost through spring/summer then takes it back in autumn. Net effect by year-end: slightly negative. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022951635958337775"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2022951635958337775)  2026-02-15T08:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"IMO the Fed should have cut at the last FOMC. The data isn't even close. Truflation at 1.46%. That's [--] basis points below the 2% target. PCE at 1.72%. CPI at 2.13%. Core at 2.25%. There is no inflation argument against easing. They're undershooting their own target. And the dashboard is showing exactly where this is heading. Rate cut probability: 80.1%. QE probability: 68.2% and rising up 5.9% over [--] days. Treasury QE probability: 50.4% jumped 5.9% in the last [--] days alone. Every single policy lever is shifting toward easing. Connect this to the liquidity projection model from yesterday."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2022966752699691069)  2026-02-15T09:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"For sure it's way more nuanced than the rudimentary model I put together here. The GLI and CLI on the dashboard factor in significantly more depth than a simple net liquidity calculation. The TGA on its own has a pretty weak correlation with BTC. Where TGA really moves price is when it's working alongside Fed injections rather than against them during QT. I wrote about this back in Feb [----] when I compared the current cycle to [----] vs [----]. The conclusion then was the same: TGA drawdowns coincide with BTC moves but the scale depends entirely on whether the Fed is injecting or draining at the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/2023113259125985624)  2026-02-15T19:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"TGA QE/not QE This Cycle Feels More [----] Than [----] Heres Why Ive been digging into how the Treasury General Account (TGA) Fed Balance Sheet (BS) and Reverse Repo (RRP) levels line up with Bitcoin in [----] [----] and [----]. Quick takeaways: We Look More Like [----] TGA is at moderate levels - much bigger than in [----] but nowhere near 2021s wild swings. Expect partial spend-downs until late March but don't expect the full amount yet then likely a pause around tax season before another push. Historically Q3 shows the strongest gains so keep powder dry and protect profits from late Q1 in Q2. Fed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1888889255767798145)  2025-02-10T09:54Z [----] followers, 46.2K engagements


"Furthermore to this post if tracking all these liquidity moves yourself feels like too much the easiest way to stay ahead is by using the GLI on my dashboard. Every component is carefully weighted to create a [----] correlation with BTC with a 1-week lead making it one of the most accurate liquidity indicators out there. Theres a lot more to see on the dashboard too - live data key insights and everything you need to navigate this cycle. Check it out here: RV and TRW members DM me for discount codes. https://rjalphadash.co.uk/ TGA QE/not QE This Cycle Feels More [----] Than [----] Heres Why Ive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1888982565287301479)  2025-02-10T16:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"GLI update Liquidity is creeping up this week driven by a very small TGA drawdown but also by rising shadow banking activity. Not a major move yet but BTC historically follows liquidity trends and this should provide some much needed support i expect a better week for BTC. The bigger shift is coming. TGA is set for a heavier drawdown starting imminently mirroring the [----] run-up where it had the support of the shadow banking system. Shadow banking is playing a key role again. As the TGA drains non bank financial institutions (hedge funds private lenders MMFs etc.) are stepping in using"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1891252611761709360)  2025-02-16T22:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Hump day hopeium for all the astute degens. While deep in commodity analysis digging into Precious Metals Industrial Metals and Agricultural I took a closer look at something weve known for a while: the Gold/BTC correlation. Gold has a twist in comparison to almost all of it while most metals move in sync with BTC Gold actually leads by [--] days. Since [----] gold has held a [----] correlation with BTC on a 65-day lead and in the last two years thats tightened to a very strong [-----]. Interestingly while golds price movements predict BTCs direction with serious accuracy the daily percentage moves"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1892170684681322698)  2025-02-19T11:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"GLI/Gold correlation update Where are we at A subtle liquidity injection is already underway. Liquidity flows are shaping up for a solid move this week. RRP and TGA balances have dipped while shadow banking issuance is on the rise which typically means more capital in play. Layer in the 65-day BTC/Gold correlation and the stars are starting to align. Gold popped in mid-December and ripped to new highs and BTC has a history of following that lead. If this pattern holds and with liquidity metrics improving we should see a strong end to Q1. BTC remains our dominant major currently and with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1892885526841119102)  2025-02-21T10:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"To answer the question thats in my DMs TGA is down but risk assets are selling off and liquidity isnt making its way into markets. Normally a TGA drawdown would be a tailwind for risk assets but this time everything else is working against it. As I mentioned in a post a few weeks ago comparing [----] and [----] drawdowns the Feds balance sheet is still shrinking meaning theres no offsetting expansion from the central bank. RRP has ticked back up which means liquidity is being parked instead of flowing into the system. Money market funds are down suggesting capital is being pulled out of liquid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1895110704933339267)  2025-02-27T13:56Z [----] followers, 12.5K engagements


"Oft 👀. Hopeium 👼 Investors Exposure To Risk Assets 1w Offset 🦈 https://t.co/gFp1X8hhjh Investors Exposure To Risk Assets 1w Offset 🦈 https://t.co/gFp1X8hhjh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1895734222171820072)  2025-03-01T07:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This guy. 🔥 - make sure you're following his updates. Daily Market Analysis March [--] [----] 🔹 Liquidity Model: According to @Rob_Jones19's dashboard BTC is trading below -2SD from its fair value currently around $95K. GLI remains stable suggesting a period of consolidation ahead. 🔹 Trend Perspective: No significant trend https://t.co/mSqKDDlAJo Daily Market Analysis March [--] [----] 🔹 Liquidity Model: According to @Rob_Jones19's dashboard BTC is trading below -2SD from its fair value currently around $95K. GLI remains stable suggesting a period of consolidation ahead. 🔹 Trend Perspective: No"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1896261217465053424)  2025-03-02T18:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Sorry for the delay on the update troops. I'm soooo close. I don't want to load it up with a load of bugs so its taking a little longer to get it right. 30k lines of code edited and modified. around [--] new files created and the same amount edited. Been an absolute rebuild pretty much. Thank you all for your patience its soo close"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1897229352623899100)  2025-03-05T10:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Dashboard/GLI/FV update. The dashboard is still under reconstruction so I haven't been doing much analysisright now the priority is just getting it up and running properly both for myself and for everyone using it. Running on caffeine and minimal sleep to get it done. If I cant fix it by tomorrow Ill roll back to the last working version and troubleshoot the issues in the background. The server seems to hate the new charts so thats the current battle. Quick update on the FV modelI've removed the machine learning side for now. While ML can be insane when done right it slowly became overfit as"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1899841021086781774)  2025-03-12T15:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Theres a value gap brewing. Over the past few weeks Ive mentioned that Im expecting a strong end to Q1. Weve seen a decent uptick in liquidity this past week but BTC hasnt really followed suit yet. Our gold correlation (a 65-day lead correlation) suggests BTC is about to move higher in line with golds recent upswing over the past few months. Thats created a large gap between the current BTC price and fair value and I believe it needs to close. With the UkraineRussian war continuing and Putin reluctant to sit down for talks tariffs at an all-time high and Trump just being himself investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1901603781743386880)  2025-03-17T11:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Been running some analysis on liquidity creation and debt roll over. "The most imminent significant pressure point appears to be scheduled for March 17th [----]. When over 15% of outstanding Treasury debt is projected to mature within a 90-day window." I'll leave this here 👀👀👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1901660967441772662)  2025-03-17T15:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Treasury Debt Burden & Bitcoin: Data Driven Analysis Long post. To help i have split it into points. 0/13 As you can see on the chart large pressure points happen before huge run ups and clusters of low-pressure points often appear just in advance and during significant price run-ups providing an early indicator of potential market shifts. 1/13 I've analysed how BTC & global liquidity respond to these Treasury debt rollovers. The data reveals a clear pattern that smart investors should understand before the massive rollover events coming in [----]. 2/13 Huge debt burden incoming: The Treasury"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1902305815567941864)  2025-03-19T10:27Z [----] followers, 12.2K engagements


"THE US debt plan. Following on from my recent analysis of BTC price behavior around Treasury rollover pressure points here's exactly why the US has now been forced to slowdown/halt Quantitative Tightening (QT) and is likely to restart Quantitative Easing (QE). Quantitative Tightening involves the Federal Reserve shrinking its balance sheet effectively pulling liquidity out of the market. Quantitative Easing on the other hand is precisely the opposite - the Fed expands its balance sheet by buying existing Treasury bonds directly from banks and investors. This makes the Fed a guaranteed buyer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1902984642111922511)  2025-03-21T07:24Z [----] followers, 11K engagements


"I've been analysing the key relationship between Treasury debt rollover events my Liquidity Index (blue line) and Bitcoin price movements. This chart clearly shows the powerful interplay between the three - something every serious investor should understand. Treasury rollover events (when the US government refinances large amounts of debt) trigger significant market shifts. Large rollovers (4.0%) typically create short term stress and volatility pushing BTC prices lower. Medium-sized rollover events (2.9%-4.0%) often signal upcoming liquidity boosts making them ideal entry points for BTC."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1903746726785167481)  2025-03-23T09:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"GLI update and to no surprise (maybe a little) it has done exactly what we expected dropped sharply right on schedule. Todays update shows a solid liquidity contraction perfectly in line with the biggest US Treasury debt rollover in history. As covered in detail in my previous post weve been watching this week like hawks and now its here. As always massive refinancing = liquidity gets temporarily sucked out of the system. But heres the good news: history has shown that these GLI dips tend to be short-lived. Liquidity bounces back fast and when it does so do risk assets.Hard. If we go by"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1906793604959375615)  2025-03-31T19:39Z [----] followers, 10K engagements


"Quick GLI & Treasury Debt strategy (months ahead of price) and gold fv update: Liquidity took a sharp dip exactly as anticipated last week with the [--] week lag landing perfectly on April 6th and prices responded accordingly: BTC dropped -5.6% ETH -12% SOL -11% so far. Our GLI metric caught this liquidity contraction precisely one week in advance. Even more impressively the Treasury debt rollover data flagged this event clearly over a month ago highlighting the true power of monitoring debt burdens. With this we can see these liquidity driven market shifts coming years ahead (i've already"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1908999076965736863)  2025-04-06T21:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Another long term chart being added to the new dashboard and the investing tool belt - The business cycle index. Following up on my recent posts about the US debt rollover spikes and my GLI liquidity signals: Ive just wrapped up my 40-input Business Cycle Index (BCI) for Bitcoin. All inputs are readily available on FRED (take note China) As you can see Its giving a pretty solid [--] month lead on BTC price moves and the signal is now becoming very bull for our [--] month holding period based on our other analysis. It all lines up with my earlier GLI calls for rising liquidity. Throw in that looming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1910045134898536473)  2025-04-09T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Quick follow up after my last update on GLI and Treasury debt rollover: the DCA window from April 6th through the 13th seems to be nailing the local bottom. Unless we get some more Trump theatrics roiling the markets I doubt well break the lows set in that span especially with Treasury yields kicking up while were still in a refinancing phase. Frankly I cant imagine the Fed or Treasury letting him cause further chaos on top of whats already unfolding and the FED statements to cool the market i would argue back this thesis up. GLIs bounce from the late March refinancing hit right on schedule"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1910993461626495428)  2025-04-12T09:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Altcoin Momentum Trading Strategy Guide 📊 As most of you know I generally classify myself as an investor rather than a trader. However since developing the Alt League Table I've been quietly testing various strategies to maximise alpha and profitability. Initially my approach was simple: buying the top-ranked assets. This proved weak as the top-ranked coins often already peaked providing limited upside. You really want exposure to assets that are on the rise not those already at their apex. Subsequently I explored more complex methods each either overly complicated or too reactive resulting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1911910247738016057)  2025-04-14T22:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Liquidity analysis update The Treasury the Fed and the debt refinancing cycle are all lining up soon pretty much at the same time. Conflicting interests in regards to liquidity leaves an uncertain time in May. So i wanted to look at historic data and see what we can expect. As mentioned previously with my last TGA analysis post i didn't expect the TGA DD to have too much effect in Q1 (like 2017) and that seemed to be pretty closely on point. There's an argument to say it had a lesser effect than even i anticipated and i expect the tax season build up to be much the same. I've been running the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1912415518423756879)  2025-04-16T07:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Oh boy oh boy oh boy LEGIT new toy for the new dashboard (a little thanks to @rj_fulton_ for the full idea to do it): six live gauges that chew through 30+ years of Fed data and spit out the odds of each macro backdrop in real time. No guess work and heavy analysis no la heavy moving averages just conditional probability rules that havent thrown a single false trigger in three decades of walk forward testing. Pure data that happens every time over. Latest print is a proper mixed bag. Recession risk sits at [--] % but declining. Thats well under the [--] % threshold so the model still says we are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1913762547171315829)  2025-04-20T01:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Quick update on the BCI i haven't actually looked at it for a few weeks until now as it gets loaded onto the new dashboard. The debt burden model the BCI and the Probability gauges are our long range compasses; they look at every Treasury rollover cluster long term macro indicators and business cycle inputs tells us when liquidity pressure eases or tightens ahead of time. The debt strategy is simple and it printed our whole year of signals which will also be on the new dashboard for the users. If you've been following you would know we dca'd [---] April to catch the bottom recovery period until"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1914232174590505127)  2025-04-21T08:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Dash Update Quick dash and liquidity check in. When the new dashboard is fully operational i will roll these out on there rather than X but for the time being this'll do. After that solid bounce off the march refi landing right on the 6th when we predicted GLI has now had a small decline for three straight days nothing major but worth keeping an eye on. TGA bottomed out and is starting to rise again through the tax season pulling some liquidity from markets short term as expected. Market stress gauge high QE locked at 100% and rate cut probability hovering higher. In short macro conditions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1914705028876558785)  2025-04-22T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Dominance rotation matters more than people realise. Backtests from me and a others I rate highly all show the same thing - a systemised rotation between trending majors massively outperforms just holding with way less downside risk. Thats why I always say at the absolute degen bare minimum 80% of your stack should sit in the dominant asset. Let the alt league handle the fun stuff. And this week is a perfect example of why. While most were guessing or stuck in BTC we rotated cleanly: BTC SOL now SUI. Just following the system this week alone would've outperformed simply holding BTC by 35%. A"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1915703519383847289)  2025-04-25T09:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"A question that was asked more than once after my last post. Why is my GLI only a [--] week lag and the M2 charts are months ahead. Its actually very simple. M2 is not liquidity. Shock horror. Parts of M2 add to liquidity yes. Cash demand deposits but big chunks of it do the opposite. Time deposits savings accounts. they're dead money when it comes to risk flows. So lumping them together and calling it "liquidity" misses the whole point. Not to mention its a lagged data set. You get it after the event. That said M2 is still very useful. It tracks well with risk assets over long timeframes. Its"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1916497241616867641)  2025-04-27T14:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Debt Burden Liquidity and Why the [--] Year Cycle is Dead. The idea that Bitcoin still runs purely on a [--] year cycle is outdated. Its not [----] anymore. Halving's don't matter anymore and the business cycle has changed. Over the last few months digging into the US debt structure its become crystal clear: where there is large refinancing there is liquidity. Where there is liquidity risk assets rise. It's that simple. The chart Im posting today shows the Treasury's current debt maturity breakdown. What jumps out - Massive refinancing not just short term but across 1-2 years 2-5 years and even a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1916798069317714264)  2025-04-28T10:14Z [----] followers, 22.8K engagements


"To help the degens on the dashboard. Nord the legend that works with me and is building the new one has added a confirmation point and % of how much of my personal criteria is hit for entry conditions. You degens are going to love it so no need for chat gpt anymore. Plus look how beautiful that looks Spec wasn't actually ready this morning it kicked into the ready period an the 10am -6% wick which i was watching and moved into with some spare cash. Perks of being on it non stop testing and seeing everything in real time"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1916814655734927795)  2025-04-28T11:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"GLI Update Yesterdays dip played out exactly as expected based on the debt burden analysis. Aprils refi pressure hit with the end of month rollover dragging liquidity lower just like i previously mentioned. The good news is - The two biggest Treasury refinances of the year are now behind us. With the heaviest supply absorbed we should start moving into greener pastures and smaller rollover events which help keep the party going. Expect a pickup in liquidity over the next several days and weeks. Price action might stay murky this week and next as markets digest it but structurally were setting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1917836036136218769)  2025-05-01T06:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Everyone happy the dom major switched to eth this morning haha Best asset rotation going. Also new website going live tonight. This weeks new analysis i wrote is on it already. Along with an Alpha add of the trading strategy than plans out now until [----]. You're welcome. Stay tuned in here for the drop. countdown has begun"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1922380160101482627)  2025-05-13T19:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Finally got the new dashboard live and wow that was way tougher than we thought. Theres a ton of data in there now and over the next week were rolling out three or four fresh charts (youve probably already spotted a few on my X feed). By now you should all have this weeks write-up. If you missed last weeks just give me a shout this one builds directly on our debt-burden deep dive and I really think that page is essential plus full of alpha to help understand how prices change based on debt and liquidity. The Alt League just got smarter too: it now flags every token that hits full entry"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1922538118156329210)  2025-05-14T06:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"My [--] choices i had for entry this morning. Guess which i chose 🥲 haha. Cant win them all. You know its a good system when you call a 3% day not a win 😂 Holding none the less. Got a cool macro post for tomorrow. Majority of the details i will be holding for the weekly analysis drop on monday. Kinda tells us where we are in the macro space. Where the money is coming from rn debasement and liquidity dynamics all will be in the weekly analysis drop some will be in an X post. Get the weekly drops @ https://rjalphadash.co.uk/ https://rjalphadash.co.uk/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1925655091488366981)  2025-05-22T20:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Anyone else seriously disappointed with the Big Ugly Bill Back to the macro for me and Ive been deep diving into the real state of affairs. Full breakdown drops Monday in the dashboard analysis but heres the quick rant We had hope. Elon came in gone. Bessent showed spine but folded. What we needed was a shock to the system. What we're going to get is more of the same: kick the can blow the debt pretend everythings fine. The global economy is in serious trouble. My debt metrics chart tells it straight debt-to-GDP now over 130% and by my estimate nearly 30% of US tax revenue is just paying"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1925914365439492150)  2025-05-23T13:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Follow up from yesterdays rant after a few questions and a few people not happy with me knocking Trump. lets talk tariffs seems its all he talks about. A few asked whats the solution others asked if tariff revenue could actually slow the debt train or at least help with the TGA drawdown. Honest answer No. Yes weve seen an uptick in customs duties. Trumps tariffs increased by % terms a lot and [----] is seeing one of the strongest months on record (see chart). But even at these elevated levels were talking $86B a year average. I ran the numbers. Even if the U.S. had locked in 2025's higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1926322794842775895)  2025-05-24T17:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Currently working on tomorrows weekly analysis drop for the dashboard and honestly Im getting more bullish by the hour. The U.S. needs GDP growth massively this year and that usually comes hand in hand with a big ol' wave of liquidity. If you're trying to map out where the big plays are coming from get yourself on the dashboard. 3-day free trial. No excuses. "It is the set of the sails not the direction of the wind that determines which way we will go." Jim Rohn https://rjalphadash.co.uk/ https://rjalphadash.co.uk/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1926745959154725173)  2025-05-25T21:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Following on from my previous bill post heres a quick preview from this weeks dashboard analysis for those not yet subscribed. Liquidity is still flat right now but not for long. The U.S. cant cut tax or save its way out of this debt spiral. The only real path forward is outsized GDP growth. Debt-to-GDP sits at 132%. Interest now consumes nearly 30% of tax revenue just to service the debt. Rates need to come down. QE has to return. Not to pump markets but to stabilise borrowing costs and keep the system moving. Real GDP growth needs real output. Thats why industrial reshoring matters. Its"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1928004810638229936)  2025-05-29T08:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"GLI Update As expected we saw a dip in GLI on the 29th following the medium-sized debt rollover around 5% of total U.S. debt exactly as outlined in this weeks analysis for dashboard users. That liquidity was quickly recycled as the Treasury auctioned new debt the very next day on the 30th which we broke down fully in the letter. It played out cleanly and GLI is now firmly back in recovery mode. BTC was tracking perfectly in line with the expected 5% drawdown window from the rollover until Elon and Trump decided to go to war over Trumps absolutely awful bill (this could get nasty but @elonmusk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1930888293467512837)  2025-06-06T07:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Dashboard update dropping tomorrow. One of the things coming is so simple but so handy. Our new Market Calendar designed to keep you ahead of every major macro event without the noise. It's fully filterable by priority: High = Fed CPI SEC ETF rulings FOMC minutes debt ceilings etc helps keep you up to date with all macro events and it will give you links to minutes and meetings. Medium/Low = relevant news but filtered cleanly so youre not wasting time on headlines that dont move markets. Also going live: a new BTC Fair Value model based on golds correlation shifted [--] days ahead. It's shown a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1932181615410848039)  2025-06-09T21:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"DASHBOARD UPDATE NOW LIVE 🎇🎇🎇 We've launched the new Gold-Lead BTC Fair Value Model tracking golds movement with a 65-day lead and the btc fair value. Correlation and R2 are both very strong the fit is clean - another macro tool to stay ahead of the move. The new Market Calendar is also live - everything that matters in one place. Fed CPI FOMC ETF decisions debt ceilings. Priority filters let you cut through the noise and focus on what moves markets. I personally only look that the high priority stuff but for those who like readying all things macro and crypto you have medium and low"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1932411706153615422)  2025-06-10T12:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"GLI dipped again today not what I wanted to see. With liquidity rolling over and the debt burden strategy pointing to an exit soon(for a very short time) Im starting to scale out now. No need to get caught overstaying. Weve had a strong few months and Id rather lock that in. Ill re enter on the next DCA window. Just sticking to the plan. Not financial advice DYOR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1938460073426079919)  2025-06-27T04:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Had a few questions about my decision to pull from the market and i think i will explain it a little. I will go more in depth in this weeks analysis on the dashboard for the users with some data and charts to back it but the gist is below. First the data. Our GLI which leads BTC by [--] days and has a very high granger causality over a short timeframe not just a a strong correlation. "Strong causality for lags 1-15 days Most significant at lag [--] (p-value: 0.0029)" The GLI has crashed hard this week. A clear short term breakdown in global liquidity. Plus just as that settles in weve got another"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1939196976232305078)  2025-06-29T05:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Like absolute clockwork. That sharp drop in GLI is exactly what I flagged in the analysis yesterday on the dashboard. End of quarter window dressing and debt rollover hitting right on schedule. This is the kind of move we step aside for and why the exit came early. The next couple weeks might get choppy but thats fine. This kind of drawdown is exactly what clears the way for the next pump. Patience here is key. Watch the GLI like a hawk over the next few days. If it starts to recover thats our cue. Had a few questions about my decision to pull from the market and i think i will explain it a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1939947045151797545)  2025-07-01T07:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Last nights stats on the degen dashboard (12 hour period) 72.7% success rate (32/44 tokens) Average gain on successful tokens: 318.5% I may have created a monster"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1941082514418012559)  2025-07-04T10:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Alright alright alright just look at how clean Nords made the VAMS charts 😍 VAMS models with clear buy and sell signals will be live on the dashboard today for premium users. Both short and medium term setups available depending on how you manage your port. If youre unsure which suits you best scroll back through the history of the charts and see which timeframe wouldve nailed your moves. Use the ranges standalone or mix them with your FV zones for gold and GLI to value btc or layer them with your existing confluence models. Up to you its built to flex with your style worlds your Oyster you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1941797400328200608)  2025-07-06T09:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"QT RISK MODEL HAS BROKEN BELOW THRESHOLD YAYYYYY🧨🧨🧨🧨 For the first time since we launched the model QT probability has dropped below its 50% threshold officially triggering an end to Quantitative Tightening conditions on our Macro Regime tracker. This shift marks a potential relief in liquidity pressures with markets likely to respond positively especially risk assets like crypto. The model tracks QT risk based on active Fed balance sheet contraction fed data and liquidity withdrawal. A sub 50% reading signals reduced tightening force and historically precedes broader easing regimes."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1945406709733986797)  2025-07-16T08:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"RJ dashboard overview. Users of the dash do me a solid and repost this. Lets create some traction ❤ Peeking under the hood of our RJALPHA dashboard right now you can see the Global Liquidity Index slowly ramping up ahead of Bitcoins rebound. Bitcoin is trading above its fair value green band a signal that momentum could slow. Implied volatility sits subdued in a calm ranging bull market state. On the regime side both QE and rate cut probabilities are ticking higher in the last months but neither are at threshold feeding into a bullish macro backdrop thats lifted BTC into a clear bull regime."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1945962357525762234)  2025-07-17T21:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"On the total opposite end of my degeneracy is our new hodl index which nord will be making look pretty. Built this because pure hodling felt too simplistic and im personally a huge fan of dca'ing in and out of markets. The system pulls live analySing Treasury yields Fed funds rate money supply equity indices dollar strength VIX and gold prices and a few others alongside BTC's momentum patterns. The momentum component tracks BTC across multiple timeframes to catch sustained moves without getting shafted by short term noise. But the edge comes from the macro analysis. Treasury yields get"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1946527726552150494)  2025-07-19T11:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Our GLI stopped working as perfectly this year for the short term at least and i'm going to break down why. The old model thrived under a Fed led regimes. BTC tracked balance sheet expansion repo ops shadow banking RRP and a few countries sprinkled in lightly like clockwork. That broke the moment Trump returned to office and the debt burden i've spoke about previously kicked in. Since then weve been running on a different kind of liquidity one driven by Treasury and not the Fed. Helped along with the large amount of debt refinancing. Powell hasnt pivoted to bend the knee. No rate cuts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1947915457165414408)  2025-07-23T07:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Time to sell everything that isn't crypto to invest buckle down for the Q3 gains. Do you need more of a sign Not financials advice satire do not sell you pets to buy crypto. i always despise both August and September. just tough months to make money i always despise both August and September. just tough months to make money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1951664547254661418)  2025-08-02T15:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"BTC is still tracking our CLI almost perfectly. Based on the data were looking for a price bounce tomorrow or Monday. Sundays can always throw a curveball. Minor rant. 😂 It still amazes me how many in crypto have no clue about liquidity despite it being the #1 driver of markets. TA and gut feelings dont move prices liquidity does. Yet weve got influencers and big name podcasts calling the cycle top and predicting a weak September while September already has record refinancing heavy short term bill issuance and a surge in credit lined up. Blows my mind. Our training videos are in the works to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1956692139057819877)  2025-08-16T12:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Treasury maturity tracker update and September is looking absolutely massive. September's maturity wall has been steadily climbing as August's maturities get rolled into short term bill issuance. Just spiked to a colossal $2.35 trillion for September alone and that's still growing. Everyone's calling for a weak September but the data tells a completely different story. This enormous maturity event means $2.35T in cash hitting institutional balance sheets that must be immediately redeployed. Only about half goes back into new Treasury securities. The other half flows into credit markets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1959362946682999058)  2025-08-23T21:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Quick market breakdown before the new updates land later today. No fresh weekend data so dashboard users will get the proper read once it comes in full market analysis including LINKs addition to the dominant rotation and a deep dive on the Genius Act and what it means for Treasury flows and stablecoins will be available on there as soon as the new data hits the charts. For now with the lagged data CLI is still soft and GLI is flat. That doesnt give much support to the upside short term. We might see a small uptick in CLI over the next couple of days but with the end of month refinancing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1959858480019386811)  2025-08-25T06:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Dominant Major Update Dominant major has now flipped to Sol. I didnt move into LINK when it came up in the rotation it was added late and with downside risk in the market I wasnt prepared to leave ETH for a higher beta play. Different story now. I have already now made the switch from ETH into Sol purely on its relative strength. Charts like this and plenty more to follow to help you grow and position your portfolio are live here: 🔗 https://rjalphadash.co.uk/ https://rjalphadash.co.uk/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1960937770966507562)  2025-08-28T05:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"My best read on what's coming for BTC in the next few weeks based on Treasury refinancing patterns we've been tracking on the dashboard. September has $2.35T in Treasury debt hitting the public markets for refinancing which puts it right at the edge of what I would class an extreme event. I've been classing them based on size. This only just makes the cut. The pattern I've identified this year shows these high pressure refi months create pretty predictable Bitcoin moves. We typically see a drawdown in the first week of the month when the refinancing pressure peaks usually hitting around days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1961162443675021442)  2025-08-28T20:22Z [----] followers, 88.3K engagements


"Lagged Monday dashboard update for the non subscribers. Liquidity data updates today and tomorrow will give us the clearer read we need for the week. My base case hasnt changed. In my analysis letter on the dashboard from last week I said volatile crabbing into next week looks most likely and thats exactly what weve seen. GLI and CLI still the main drivers. In the current regime its CLI that matters most though both are key. Were still working through this small move lower last update was Thursday/Friday so expect chop until new data drops later today. BTC is edging down toward GLI fair value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1962390602701828112)  2025-09-01T05:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I've been analysing Bitcoin's behavior around Fed rate cuts since [----] across [--] events not the largest sample size but it's what we get with Bitcoin. Found some patterns worth noting ahead of today's decision. Bitcoin shows consistent volatility spikes around rate cuts as we all know averaging 31% above baseline on cut days with elevated vol persisting from a month before through the event. Markets clearly position ahead of announcements. Performance varies dramatically by cut size. Small cuts under 25bp average just 3.2% gains over the following month with 45% win rates. Standard 25bp cuts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1967930007176515982)  2025-09-16T12:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"New month new walkthrough of the dashboard. Weve packed so much more into it lately that I honestly dont use anything else for my day-to-day analysis. From liquidity models like the GLI and CLI to liquidation maps alt league risk intel treasury trackers and the letters page everything you need to stay ahead is in one place. Its structured to cover both the serious macro side of your portfolio and the fun stuff like memes and alts so youre never flying blind. All of this costs less than a meal out which is mad when you think about the edge it gives you. Were just getting started. Each month"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1968611066000130414)  2025-09-18T09:40Z [----] followers, 14.8K engagements


"Ok enough of the small port degen play. Back to the heavy macro. Following up on what I wrote a last month. Rate cuts have now landed debt is expected to expand and already since that last chart weve seen another $0.5T in debt added alongside $0.4T in new bills. That is straight liquidity creation and if youve read my analysis on the dashboard youll know exactly how that transmission works. On top of that $0.06T has been added to next months refinancing load. This is the reality of where we are. The need for credit is growing the refinancing cycle is getting heavier and each month is stacking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1968733579141140672)  2025-09-18T17:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"At the start of the month I laid out the refinancing pattern and what it meant for BTC. Early month weakness followed by a relief rally as Treasury liquidity fed back into the system. This chart shows exactly how its played out so far. From the low weve rallied over 9% and are now just 3% away from the target I projected at the start of September. Moving cleanly in line with the playbook. The system and thesis isnt random. Track the refinancing cycle properly on the dashboard and you can see where the pressure points and the relief flows land. Thats what weve been doing on the dashboard and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1968909908155273230)  2025-09-19T05:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Markets are liquidity regime driven. Watch the wrong gauge and you miss the move thats why we track two and I couldn't show a clearer picture of this shift. Up to Nov [--] GLI led BTC (red) with higher correlation and Granger causality. After the SECs money market rules kicked in and Treasurys duration collapse the credit channel took over and CLI has led since (blue). Same BTC different driver. We track both daily each leading price by [--] week so you can see the next move coming. For the full framework my Debt Duration Collapse letter breaks down how the SEC shift helped force faster cash"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1968993358216356009)  2025-09-19T10:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"A few red candles and suddenly its BTC crash all over my feed. Come on. We literally paused credit around the Fed cut thats how the system works. CLI has already spiked again and should push higher into next week. The pipes are fully loaded Trillions in bills rolling over in the coming months and as the cherry on top of the already bullish cake the collateral multiplier is at a [--] year high That means; More collateral reuse Faster rehypothecation AND even more credit creation. . Liquidity efficiency is rising while everyone on my X has gone bearish. What is everyone seeing 😂 Life is bullish AF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1969365252560110011)  2025-09-20T11:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I dont understand why people benchmark their system against HODL BTC. BTCs only done 6% since early May. If your system hasnt beaten that your system is absolute garbage. The real question is: has your system outperformed HODL inside a relative strength asset rotation Our asset rotation is up 98% over the same window. Just HODL'ing. Now thats the challenge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1971675882885730448)  2025-09-26T20:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Looks like weve either had a major data revision or a late backfill. Convenient timing. This series has never printed like that and then right as funds are sidelined and the market rolls over we suddenly get a revised/lagged dump. Im heading out for a round of golf; Ill dig into it properly when Im back and share what changed and why"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1971812410429227426)  2025-09-27T05:41Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Back in late April I said the [--] year Bitcoin cycle was done. I got a fair few mid-curve quotes and the this time isnt different jokes. I even saved one in particular in my bookmarks to refer to at a later date. Five months on some big voices have now landed in the same place. The reason hasnt changed: debt rollover = liquidity waves. The US is refinancing in repeated clusters and when those waves hit risk assets move. It's as simple as that. 2025s schedule alone makes the move into [----] and even [----] obvious to me. They either continue rolling short term = Credit liquidity Push it to the long"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1972708565828694082)  2025-09-29T17:02Z [----] followers, 18.6K engagements


"We recently moved the Gold/BTC lead to [--] days instead of [--]. I think when you see the chart from the past few months it's obvious why we have shifted [--] days. Not that [--] days makes much difference as investors except for the fact it's very easy on the eye. However IF this correlation continues mid-late October through to the end of the year is looking extremely wild for $BTC Now I don't ever believe that you should ever rely on one single chart or analysis to position yourself. But when most of what you're looking at is pointing in one direction it's hard not to be overly bullish right now."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1972985755908645038)  2025-09-30T11:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Seriously though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1973424459953611261)  2025-10-01T16:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Alt League just received an update. We have now added the CA's for all your favourite tokens. $Aura and $USELESS leading the way rn and both absolutely printing. Make sure you're always in the right Alts at the right time With the Alt league. On the dashboard. https://rjalphadash.co.uk/en/analysis/alt-league https://rjalphadash.co.uk/en/analysis/alt-league"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1973852704645787978)  2025-10-02T20:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Soo much of the $AURA community pushing for an update of the Alt League. $AURA and $USELESS still killing it in the port. Don't worry communities we're still risk on we still have you going to the moon 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1974213727734948022)  2025-10-03T20:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Both charts keep doing their job. Our majors rotation flipped back into BTC a few days ago and the bags up just under 10% already. The normalised rotation line says it all. Stay in the market rotate to the leader. AURA is +91% for me (Aura Network not the meme 🙈) and the meme versions been printing too. $USELESS is +45% from the entry. Systems are working. 11% up from the entry signal yesterday morning too. Im still leaning for a pullback somewhere up here so dont chase every green candle too much Follow the signals and scale sensibly. If you havent printed in the last two weeks you probably"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1975174538108231825)  2025-10-06T12:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Dominant asset rotation update. As most of you on the dashboard know were constantly upgrading tightening rules adding pieces and checking that everything still passes our robustness/forward-bias tests. Off the back of the HODL Index work Ive doubled down on what Ive believed all year: when the macro tailwind is there its more profitable to stay in the market and rotate to the leader than to sit in cash at any point. After a fresh round of testing weve changed the weightings and swapped the basket of assets $LINK out $BNB in. Ive run thousands of combinations from [--] to [--] assets even tried"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1976204930353344795)  2025-10-09T08:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Followering on from our last $GOLD and $BTC correlation post. Still beautifully on track. The correlation is actually crazy. A small dip wouldn't and doesn't take uptober away. In fact it's expected. We would fly through the skies after the coming weeks consolidation. Which would make sense to me. Is it that simple ABSOLUTELY NOT. It can and will de-correlate. Bloody beautiful for the moment though so let's just enjoy it. http://www.rjalphadash.co.uk http://www.rjalphadash.co.uk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1976745245749785075)  2025-10-10T20:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Yesterdays dump was a manufactured flush IMO and the whole market puked. $BTC snapped straight back into our GLI fair value band the same zone it tends to reconverge into after an over extension. Nothing in the liquidity backdrop changed in a minute; price simply reset. Gold lead stays glued to spot and points higher into next week. Bigger picture unchanged. $150K+ is the next 3m target. On the risk side the leverage gaugers were all in RISK OFF going into the move so users SHOULDN'T HAVE BEN IN LEVERAGE. If you were in our current dominant major BNB you even got a small relief bounce today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1977110357526409693)  2025-10-11T20:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"If your portfolio is small you cannot afford risk. Full stop. The idea that because my port is small I need higher risk to make it is how people blow up and make [--] gains. A 4060% drawdown when youre compounding from a small base is fatal. If you drop 50% it takes you 100% to get back to where you were. Your job isnt to swing for home runs on a weekly basis its to stay in the game long enough to let compounding do the heavy lifting. Dashboard users with a smaller port - stick to the dominant asset rotation. Thats your core. When the lev gauges flip to allow it you can add a little controlled"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1977617593465819544)  2025-10-13T06:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Everyone wants the gold chart. Only a few give us credit 😂 Bitcoin is shadowing golds rally with a roughly 60-day delay projecting a Bitcoin price near $156000 by mid-December if the pattern holds. https://t.co/ZDhMhrBSEX Bitcoin is shadowing golds rally with a roughly 60-day delay projecting a Bitcoin price near $156000 by mid-December if the pattern holds. https://t.co/ZDhMhrBSEX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1978107710584291572)  2025-10-14T14:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"My current quick read. More detail will be in this weeks market analysis on the dashboard but for now. Current read: brutal flush but the most bullish structural setup of the year might be forming. From Jul 31Sep [--] Treasury cycled roughly $2.72T in bills (gross) and added roughly $401B net. Over the same stretch the TGA reloaded around $434B So despite trillions moving more cash was locked away than released. But the markets still held up pretty well: BTC tagged $122.6k majors near ATHs S&P steady. Then funding maxed (0.10%/8h) leverage got torched funding flipped negative spreads widened"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1978366217632006624)  2025-10-15T07:43Z [----] followers, 11.2K engagements


"Credit has tightened significantly over the past few weeks and our Credit Liquidity Index flagged the risk before Bitcoin's $25k drop from the October highs. Even caught the small inflection to the upside in between. The whole financial system runs on credit right now that's why traditional metrics like bank reserves do not matter. When credit conditions shift everything else follows. We'll break down exactly what happened and what it means for the broader market in our deep dive analysis later today. The CLI shows us the general direction before these moves happen. Do not fear. This is a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1979156378045362390)  2025-10-17T12:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Quick update from the dashboard Weve had another dump in the credit gauges inside the CLI and it doesnt look like a bottom for $BTC yet. This still feels like a grind lower or at best a period of chop and base building before the next leg. Were roughly sitting on GLI fair value but I can see a path to $101k if the tightening persists. The Gold lead fair value model starts pointing higher around the 24th which lines up with a heavy bill-settlement window the week before. So theres a plausible macro handoff there. My only hesitation is the current monthly trend which I mentioned previously:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1979448513059586326)  2025-10-18T07:24Z [----] followers, 23.1K engagements


"Gold maxis slating $BTC rn are laughable. Seeing it everywhere. Gold isn't backed by anything. It literally hasn't been since Nixon ended the gold standard in [----]. Both gold and Bitcoin are the same value from scarcity plus belief. The difference is how you verify that scarcity. For U.S. gold reserves the government reports [-----] million oz worth $693 billion stored at Fort Knox West Point Denver and the NY Fed. To verify that you have to literally trust their internal audits. The last external audit was in [----] when they checked [--] of [--] compartments at Fort Knox. Every audit since has been"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1979991180524892516)  2025-10-19T19:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$BTC is still tracking credit conditions almost move for move it's been pretty much same story all year. We got a big drawdown in credit and the majors followed ( $BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB the lot). Weve seen the precise little bounce the CLI hinted at but it still looks like theres at least one more shakeout potentially to come. Do not touch leverage. Seriously youve donated enough already. Let this week play through; direction is up in the air until the next data prints. If youre not following the data you'll be very confused in the current market. Watch it all on the dashboard:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1980162211826774149)  2025-10-20T06:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Time to start scaling back in here for me. Im starting my SDCA today sticking with our dominant major $BTC. Still think $ETH and $SOL could see a bit more downside but the setup looks right for the king. Im already 50% spot in BTC and will ramp in around 10% a day unless we see a bigger flush in which case Ill LSI though I dont think thats likely. GLI is sitting right on fair value which has been solid support all year. Gold fair value is above us with a potential climb kicking off around the 24th if that model holds. Add in the coming FOMC inflations under control the regime model is leaning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1980515495955636616)  2025-10-21T06:04Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements


"DCA zone still looks solid to me current average entry sitting around $108166. End of month shenanigans could still show up though I dont really expect much with FOMC in play just something to keep in mind. If youre following along do it safely. $BTC only no leverage. My bias leans up from here. Liq maps gold CLI data and the FOMC setup all point that way. But Ive been wrong before and Ill be wrong again. Stay on the right side of the risk curve and youll be fine. Time to start scaling back in here for me. Im starting my SDCA today sticking with our dominant major $BTC. Still think $ETH and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1981234684865466627)  2025-10-23T05:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Been asked recently to do a weekly podcast with a friend who is much wealthier than me been in the game way longer than me and is a bit of an OG. The issue is.I absolutely hate the sound of my own voice I don't like being behind a camera and I find most crypto podcasts incredibly bloody boring. The only one I actually listen to is drinks with @RaoulGMI and that's mainly just him getting pissed which I can relate to. The question is. Do we want this to happen will people actually listen to it Would it also help if I also get drunk while doing it so it's not so boring. I do live in Scotland"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1981754102565445679)  2025-10-24T16:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Seeing the Gold vs $BTC chart everywhere at the moment and yeah its beautiful. If it keeps tracking like this Ill happily retire early. But please dont build your outlook off a single chart. As I said in the weekly analysis letter for dashboard users it works right now and while its working it cannot be ignored. There is 100% merit to the relationship between the two but it wont hold like this forever. These relationships never do. That said theres more behind this direction that adds weight. A few models and thesis all back the same direction so theres a solid chance this plays out for a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1981986060604199374)  2025-10-25T07:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"One thing that does produce something that gives hopium that the $btc and gold correlation COULD continue. I've recently been working on a transmission tracker that measures the ratio of business lending to Treasury bills outstanding. This tracks collateral capacity in the banking system whether there are enough bills to support credit creation. This sits [--] weeks upstream from our Credit Liquidity Index. The transmission ratio has a statistically significant [--] week leading relationship with Bitcoin (p 0.001). The transmission ratio shows collateral building or depleting. Thirteen weeks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1982193184940945852)  2025-10-25T21:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I speak about the Alt League all the time. Our users love it. But the dominant asset rotation is really where the money is made. The Dominant Asset Rotation isnt about chasing the quick moves like we do in Alts its about positioning capital where strength consistently sits. We don't trade in and out. We rotate and hold following the relative performance of the most stable large cap assets; $BTC $ETH $SOL and $BNB. Over the past three months that simple approach has returned 56% compared with $BNB at 44% $SOL at 12% $ETH at 9% and $BTC slightly negative. This is where the core of a portfolio"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1982907257902759939)  2025-10-27T20:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Big few days ahead. Normally I dont care much about rate cuts liquidity and credit conditions matter far more. But as mentioned in my weekly analysis last week. Banks are sitting at 101.6% loan to deposit. Basically they're lending more than they have in deposits and filling the gap through emergency funding. Thats a hard ceiling on credit expansion even if demand and collateral are there (which they are) banks cant extend more credit without deposits. Why deposits are leaving Money market funds are paying better yields than banks so capital has been flowing out of the banking system all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1983064890815164746)  2025-10-28T06:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Credit liquidity has picked up again and is strengthening into FOMC. End of month dynamics could still show up but based on the setup I think theyre likely delayed a week. Similar to what we saw around the previous meeting. Theres clear credit brewing in the system every time capacity opens up and a rate cut would help release that pressure. Im not usually bullish because of rate cuts but this one genuinely matters I believe. Its a capacity issue. A cut would support credit expansion. No cut risks more dysfunction. Even with limited data I dont see how they avoid cutting. I could be wrong but"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1983435437625545156)  2025-10-29T07:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Seeing people panic today is hilarious to me. A lot of Im out of crypto Im selling everything absolute meltdown. So emotional. This isnt capitulation its barely even a shakeout. Its end of month and end of quarter refinancing combined with FOMC yesterday. We literally saw a tiny drawdown in GLI and CLI and price reacted exactly the way liquidity and sentiment told it to. Nothing more nothing less. I recorded a full walkthrough on the dashboard today (not uploaded yet) and I said something that fits perfectly with whats happening right now. The whole point of having the dashboard is to stay on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1984000550455607476)  2025-10-30T20:52Z [----] followers, 30.9K engagements


"Added two new charts to the dashboard: Credit Transmission Tracker and Capital Allocation Monitor. Transmission tracker measures whether there's adequate collateral (Treasury bills) in the banking system to support credit creation. It has a 13-week leading relationship with Bitcoin. When bills are abundant relative to lending the system has capacity to support risk assets. When bills are scarce liquidity tightens. Capital allocation monitor tracks where capital actually flows when it deploys. Measuring Bitcoin's relative performance against Gold and S&P [---]. This shows if Bitcoin is winning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1985027362526834870)  2025-11-02T16:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Everyone is looking at charts. The only thing that matters is the calendar. Crypto bottoms when the shutdown ends not before IMO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1987417668698124479)  2025-11-09T07:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Bill tracker has finally updated after the long government shutdown and boy oh boy it came back heavy. Even during the shutdown everything has increased. The markets look and CT sounds horrible right now. But where there is refinancing there is liquidity. Where there is liquidity risk assets rise. That's just the facts. Being in the correct assets is and always will be key. We really need to see the credit transmission pick up to see the issuance move through the credit cycle. I truly believe this has to come with some help from the FED sooner rather than later. Optimistic is an"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rob_Jones19/status/1989327388526710896)  2025-11-14T13:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements

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