#  @RigbyValue E. Rigby E. Rigby posts on X about $evo, $jd, evo, $evvty the most. They currently have [--] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1959611552769732608/interactions)  - [--] Week [--] -89% - [--] Month [-----] -98% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1959611552769732608/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] -25% - [--] Month [--] -70% ### Followers: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1959611552769732608/followers)  - [--] Week [--] +2.10% - [--] Month [--] +4.30% ### CreatorRank: undefined [#](/creator/twitter::1959611552769732608/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) 38.67% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 16% [finance](/list/finance) 9.33% [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) 2.67% [countries](/list/countries) 2.67% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 1.33% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) 1.33% **Social topic influence** [$evo](/topic/$evo) #52, [$jd](/topic/$jd) 18.67%, [evo](/topic/evo) 12%, [$evvty](/topic/$evvty) #3, [$nvo](/topic/$nvo) 9.33%, [$pdd](/topic/$pdd) 8%, [$evost](/topic/$evost) #10, [$ptec](/topic/$ptec) #1, [food](/topic/food) 5.33%, [health](/topic/health) 5.33% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@deepicevalue](/creator/undefined) [@valuationedge](/creator/undefined) [@julius5207](/creator/undefined) [@tacticzh](/creator/undefined) [@thezackzhu](/creator/undefined) [@callycrypto](/creator/undefined) [@dividenddude](/creator/undefined) [@thelonginvest](/creator/undefined) [@hatedmoats](/creator/undefined) [@marienlechevin](/creator/undefined) [@gnufs](/creator/undefined) [@will53613248](/creator/undefined) [@returnsjourney](/creator/undefined) [@suericgp](/creator/undefined) [@investlikeiroh](/creator/undefined) [@speedwellllc](/creator/undefined) [@leotraydes](/creator/undefined) [@wearycenturion](/creator/undefined) [@dirtygreenpaper](/creator/undefined) [@amaymd](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Evotec SE (EVO)](/topic/$evo) [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo) [Alibaba Group (BABA)](/topic/$baba) [DraftKings Inc. Class A Common Stock (DKNG)](/topic/$dkng) [Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT)](/topic/$flut) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)](/topic/$adbe) [Gambling.com Group Limited (GAMB)](/topic/$gamb) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU)](/topic/$lulu) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [Crocs, Inc. (CROX)](/topic/$crox) [MercadoLibre Inc (MELI)](/topic/$meli) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS)](/topic/$lvs) [Spotlight (SPOTLIGHT)](/topic/spotlight) [Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)](/topic/$lly) [Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)](/topic/$tsm) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO)](/topic/$avgo) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Nike Inc (NKE)](/topic/$nke) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Short thread about why $EVO $EVO.ST $EVVTY has an impenetrable moat: It is wise to differentiate between the moat that creates barriers to entry for new firms and the competitive advantage against existing competitors mainly Pragmatic and $PTEC. Management often claims low barriers to entry but high barriers to success but this essentially means high barriers to entry. Theoretically anyone can set up a camera to livestream dealing cards online but in reality costs are high. To run a blackjack table 24/7 for a month yields about [-----] rounds (24 hours [--] days [--] rounds/hour). This requires 4.5" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2004150928182575339) 2025-12-25T11:23Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "This previous post focused mainly on competitors entering the B2B arena. But what if $EVO $EVO.ST $EVVTY's B2C customers ( $DKNG $FLUT etc) start inhousing their own Live Casino Many bears argue that as B2C operators get larger they will insource Live Casino to save margin. Here is why vertical integration in Live Casino is a trap and why $EVO remains essential even to the giants. Operators are marketing and tech companies. Their expertise is CAC retention and sportsbook pricing. Live Casino is a logistics and media business. Managing 100s of dealers lighting complex video compression and" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2004456860213031125) 2025-12-26T07:38Z [--] followers, 18.6K engagements "We conclude this short series on the moat of $EVO $EVO.ST and $EVVTY by discussing its competitive position against main rivals Pragmatic Play and $PTEC. First what allows $EVO to maintain a consistently higher take rate than competitors Why can't Pragmatic undercut them significantly (They do try but $EVO is rarely excluded from operators' game selections.) Operators fear churn. If a VIP player logs into Bet365 and cannot find Crazy Time or Lightning Roulette they will switch to a casino that offers them. Online casinos are largely commoditized with little player loyalty. Operators avoid" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2004834888499753193) 2025-12-27T08:41Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@julius5207 I see your what you are saying but if the cash pile keeps on building after reinvestments are made you are only getting a return according to the interest rates on that cash. Also if the share is as undervalued as $PDD seem to be buybacks would yield higher return than interest" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1960386209936519316) 2025-08-26T16:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@DeepIceValue How do you feel about $JD" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1970185356424389045) 2025-09-22T17:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@DeepIceValue I like $PDD at this valuation to some extent as well. However the retail business is a bit cyclical and of course $PDD and $BABA will do better than $JD in a downturn like this . I feel like $JD at EV/EBIT [---] compared to $PDD at [--] is a good deal" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1970191087441715668) 2025-09-22T18:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@DeepIceValue I feel like there is less intrinsic risk with $JD as well given that they are actually doing buybacks and dividends. However as they cater to different segments of the market I wouldnt mind owning both" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1970191487078977925) 2025-09-22T18:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@julius5207 Would you elaborate on how $PDD is a better business in every way They serve different segments and will of course benefit differently by different times in the economic cycle" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1976558015894483200) 2025-10-10T07:58Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@julius5207 Isnt it quite an unfair comparison to compare margins that are basically on GMV as they are actually selling the items with the margins on commissions Try $PDD margins on GMV. Is Costco/Amazon/Walmarts low retail margins a bad thing or is it actually part om their moat" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1976595507968409975) 2025-10-10T10:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@TacticzH I am long $NVO but these double y-axis plots can prove any point. PE would be less misleading" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1976694449825890374) 2025-10-10T17:00Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@Leo_Traydes I feel like the point is that with all fees included you never beat the market by putting the money in a hedge fund" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1978343902324068480) 2025-10-15T06:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Bad quarter for $EVO $EVVTY there might have been signs in the player data. However 4% growth yoy on constant currency while having full ringfencing this quarter compared to Q2 [----]. That is not too bad although under expectations" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1981247216879886707) 2025-10-23T06:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@the_zack_zhu $JDs retaliation to Meituans enter into instant commerce was probably unwise. However what do you think of $JDs quality differentiation in food delivery Is it catching on at all" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1993584366589763710) 2025-11-26T07:35Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "A value investors watchlist: 🟢 Buying $EVO / $EVVTY $CROX $JD $PYPL $NVO 🟡 Watching Closely: $META $ADBE $PDD $BABA 🔴 Hard Pass (Valuation): $MSFT $TSLA $MELI $ASML For me its always PriceMoat. Which one do you think is wrong" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1995101420274479145) 2025-11-30T12:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "A common error I see when people analyze $JD and its cash position is forgetting to account for minority interest @weary_centurion Great post However minor adjustments must be made to net cash due to minority interests. Given 68% ownership in JDL and 67% in JD Health which have net cash of 8.1B RMB and 30.5B RMB respectively we need to subtract 12.6B RMB (approximately $1.8B). Although this makes no @weary_centurion Great post However minor adjustments must be made to net cash due to minority interests. Given 68% ownership in JDL and 67% in JD Health which have net cash of 8.1B RMB and 30.5B" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2007776493716586877) 2026-01-04T11:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@HatedMoats $EVO clearly has a big moat as highlighted by $LVS exit out of the market. $GAMB however seem to have no moat besides their prop urls which are to dependent on Google algorithms . While possibly cheap by financials all growth is driven by acquisitions" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1975806197551821259) 2025-10-08T06:11Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@HatedMoats Gillespie has proved to be a decent acquirer this far but they seem to be branching out even more and more. This new spotlight Las Vegas business is basically Las Vegas while LV is on a downturn. A bet on $GAMB is a bet on Gillespies acquisition skills http://booking.com http://booking.com" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1975807030352060822) 2025-10-08T06:14Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "Headwinds from Asia will continue to be a drag and is probably not getting solved anytime soon. That being said $EVO is not losing markets share Playtech and Pragmatic are seeming similar poor growth in players. As long as regulation continues to happen slowly we will see" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1981451809177678047) 2025-10-23T20:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "the compounding resume. Otherwise even no real growth will suffice for good yields from these levels. Biggest risk continues to be regulatory but overall trend remains towards regulation. One bonus is that $EVO can have a go at Playtechs market share if the litigation" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981451812046811478) 2025-10-23T20:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@MarienLechevin Will you post $EVO player numbers and market share this month Very appreciated each month when you do" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1985070044519583870) 2025-11-02T19:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@dirtygreenpaper $JD has a clear moat in its vertical integration of the Chinese e-commerce market. It is the must trusted brand in a country where trust is everything. Whenever they stop burning cash in food delivery $JD will fly" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1993028877774733561) 2025-11-24T18:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@A_May_MD @flippyfloppy52 Why do you compare to Tirzepatide for a next gen drug Wouldnt it be more fair to compare with Retatrutide $LLY $NVO" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1993408119914045821) 2025-11-25T19:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@FromValue $TSM $EVO $GOOG" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1993431932802417040) 2025-11-25T21:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@GOOG @GOOGL getting very steep at this level. I dont see how they will overperform the market from this point. As I dont have to pay sales tax I will begin trimming" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1993570848578617426) 2025-11-26T06:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@gnufs @TheTimeInvestor Haha point taken lots of ifs required if you look at short term catalysts. And of course there are risks with investing in a industry like this. However long term those risks are reduced if you believe that $EVO moat is as big as I believe. Gambling wont cease to exist" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1994821929526858027) 2025-11-29T17:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@CallyCrypto @dividenddude So you believe it is fairly valued at this price" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1995042709825097994) 2025-11-30T08:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@DividendTalks Buying $NVO and $JD" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1995104341649228199) 2025-11-30T12:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@SayNoToTrading "Value" is not outdated. People just confuse it with "Low P/E. Buffett's core logic remains: High Growth + High ROIC = Justified High Multiples. Thats exactly why Big Tech won. The math hasn't changed. The investors job is still forecasting cash flows not chasing narratives" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1995107034719535197) 2025-11-30T12:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Will53613248 @CallyCrypto @dividenddude With high capex were seeing a 2% FCF yield. Thats too risky for a 25% allocation. Even average returns now require great execution. If you run a valuation model what specific growth assumptions are you using to justify the current price" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1995125171393327179) 2025-11-30T13:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Will53613248 @CallyCrypto @dividenddude I agree Q3 earnings were great but the price is becoming stretched. TPUs have been around for ages; they aren't suddenly going to disrupt $NVDA and become Google's main business. Remember they don't even do it alonethey still depend heavily on $AVGO for design & IP" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1995138030143766565) 2025-11-30T14:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@YodaStockInvest Ive been close with $EVO no one comes near them in live casino. They basically cant be outpriced" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1995151046805496150) 2025-11-30T15:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "I would argue that $TSM's might be wider. Every fab can buy a High-NA EUV however only TSMC can produce the top of the line chips holding 90% of the advanced market. The biggest moat might be in the execution not the machine. It is a close call though and dont see any of them getting disrupted anytime soon. $ASML" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1995167710167118111) 2025-11-30T16:27Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@meetblossomapp @fiscal_ai Once the hyperscalers capex cycle is over $NVDA's growth will slow. This current capex cant be sustained inevitably" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1995249494120915280) 2025-11-30T21:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@DividendDynasty What growth do you model for $ADBE and $PYPL Do you model margin expansion/contraction" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1995396513904951805) 2025-12-01T07:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "$JD will be a terrific investment as soon as they reduce their investments in food delivery. They have a clear moat in quality branding and logistics. Preferably they should fight to expand that moat or at least not try to burn money in overtaking Meituan. Meituans network effects will be a hard barrier to break" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1995570521849954538) 2025-12-01T19:07Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@ValuationEdge_ @TheLongInvest I am long $JD but double y-axes aint it. This could just as well be depicted as $JD having been way too overvalued and now beginning to become fairly valued by rescaling one axis" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1995574240721207570) 2025-12-01T19:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@ValuationEdge_ @TheLongInvest I mean I understand what you're saying and we probably agree on $JD as a whole. People on FinX love these double y-axes for a reason. They seem to give a clear message while being able to convey whatever message you want" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1995579121041375408) 2025-12-01T19:41Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@ResearchPulse1 I'm not sure if that's good if it's the case Price war incoming" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1995579758508474820) 2025-12-01T19:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "I agree that $NVO's price reductions should probably have come even sooner. They should focus more on expanding the market than squeezing current customers. However my main concern is whether this will become a race to the bottom on prices given $LLY's quick response. As long as Zepbound and Wegovy remain at comparable prices I assume Zepbound will take the majority of sales. If $NVO management responds as quickly as $LLY price decreases may accelerate beyond what is comfortable. I just hope the new management doesn't get bloodlust after these initial positive results and chase TRx at any cost" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1995595678630731845) 2025-12-01T20:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@BlackBeltStocks Late reply but may I ask: what was your thesis when you first invested in $EVO" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1995973985360875619) 2025-12-02T21:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@DeepIceValue Under what assumptions are $META and $AMZN undervalued" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1996208226745065937) 2025-12-03T13:21Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@CapexAndChill Do you expect margins to expand much more What will drive this" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1998338901740507471) 2025-12-09T10:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@the_zack_zhu @ReturnsJourney I read that 73% of $JD GMV is 3P could this be correct This was in [----] though I believe" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1998796985659261125) 2025-12-10T16:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@the_zack_zhu @ReturnsJourney Thought it sounded high thanks. Been trying to model the contribution of 3P to JD retail operating income. I suspect that the majority of margin expansion is attributed to 3P but cant confirm" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1998801839576191138) 2025-12-10T17:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@DeepIceValue @SuEricGP I see you write about $EVO sometimes but you are not holding any position" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1999091798611034615) 2025-12-11T12:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@SuEricGP @DeepIceValue Sorry hehe referenced @DeepIceValue I know you do" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/1999093582695944251) 2025-12-11T12:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@Investorgambles I don't think there are many long-term shorts. Most are probably momentum-driven awaiting regulatory repercussions from the UK Gambling Commission and backlash from the $EVO Black Cube legal process. They're most likely technical rather than valuation-based" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2003529761457672570) 2025-12-23T18:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Short thread about why $EVO $EVO.ST $EVVTY has a impenetrable moat: I think it is wise to differentiate between the moat that creates the barrier to entry for new firms compared to competitive advantage against current competitors in this case mainly Pragmatic and $PTEC. While management usually likes to talk about low barriers to entry and high barriers for success I would argue that this is just essentially means that it is high barriers to entry in the first place. It is true that theoretically anyone can set up a camera to livestream themselves dealing cards online. However in reality" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2004148187129377184) 2025-12-25T11:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@QualityInvest5 Their time will comenot enough to support the valuation but enough to drive it unsupervised" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2004612436973027566) 2025-12-26T17:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@ValuationEdge_ If you compare branding moats which one do you think is more sustainable over time My bet is on $NKE but $LULU is definitely better value" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2004612972489179625) 2025-12-26T17:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@TheLongInvest $JD is definitely undervalued. However I'm not sure what to think about the cash burning in food delivery. Is it necessary for them to have a hand in instant commerce" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2004630229286092999) 2025-12-26T19:07Z [--] followers, 12.8K engagements "@investlikeiroh What was your thesis What have you reconsidered" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2004654087032504465) 2025-12-26T20:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Thanks great reply Do you think we are going into steady decline for US sales now Also what do you think about the HEYDUDE turnaround Management clearly oversupplied wholesale and are cleaning that up now but my view is that the interest for the brand is as high as ever given google trends and discussion on forums etc. I think they are well positioned for slow sustainable growth after this wholesale inventory cleanup. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2004836731292455423 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2004836731292455423" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2004836731292455423) 2025-12-27T08:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@ValuationEdge_ Great analysis My biggest caution with $LULU is that they are washing out the brand by oversupplying and discounting in the name of growth. Can they keep their premium price tags sustainably I could see myself entering $LULU if the price drops 20%-30% from here" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2004838226239046035) 2025-12-27T08:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@investlikeiroh Would you say its a turnaround play Of course HEYDUDE is but the Crocs brand To me its still going strong" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2004906531918373282) 2025-12-27T13:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@TacticzH Currently buys $EVO and $NVO. Would buy $ASML if it drops" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2004932654010171579) 2025-12-27T15:09Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "I agree Q4 most likely wont be the rebound were waiting for. Player numbers are trending well according to but from a historically low base. That said at this valuation barely any growth is required. The moat remains strong and the main risk is regulatory. Be patient and youll be rewarded with this one. http://liveversion.watch http://liveversion.watch http://liveversion.watch http://liveversion.watch" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2004968447105454545) 2025-12-27T17:31Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@QCompounding The difference between an 11.6% CAGR and a 9.3% CAGR is massive over this time period: 8100x compared to 1468x. Of course an expensive quality asset will do well over that period but value remains a fundamental factor for outperformance" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2004977602021523488) 2025-12-27T18:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "With retatrutide and orforglipron showing worse-than-expected results I'm not sure what supports this valuation. It doesn't look like a runaway win against $NVOthey'll be competing till the end. The TAM is admittedly enormous but ridiculous growth is needed to support this valuation" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2005323525209387290) 2025-12-28T17:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@zack_quant @TacticzH When would you ever assume a terminal growth rate greater than 10% That's ridiculous" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2007489515305480333) 2026-01-03T16:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Speedwell_LLC The insurance reserves are accounted for in the income statement making the forward P/E accurate (not trailing due to one-time adjustments). Definitely not cheap though at a 25x forward P/E" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2007745213721358736) 2026-01-04T09:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@TheLAPurchaser Would you dare gamble with your health and take a non-FDA-approved illegal compounded pill I sure wouldnt and I think a clear majority agrees with me. Once the patent expires and its approved surebut until then why take the risk" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2009748400053338551) 2026-01-09T22:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "The report today for $EVO $EVVTY was a big disappointment for one of my main holdings. I am not too worried about the overall thesis though. Revenues are up 4% constant currency yoy and this is after big effects from ringfencing in Europe and this terrible quarter in Asia" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981451806866550874) 2025-10-23T20:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "is successful and severely damages Playtechs competitive position" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981451814814769634) 2025-10-23T20:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Selling $NVO on Evoke results is ridiculous. Market priced 6% of future cash flows on AD prevention Thesis is OBESITY not Alzheimers: 1% of TAM treated Great capacity to meet demand Pipeline: Semaglutide 7.2mg Oral Wegovy CagriSema Amycretin Long $NVO.🐂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1993013007170125847) 2025-11-24T17:45Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "$BABA is fighting on two fronts & losing its identity. $JD: Premium & Fast 🚚 $PDD: Dirt Cheap 📉 Taobao is stuck in the messy middle burning cash to defend a fading moat. Cloud is soaring (+34%) but retail is in strategic purgatory. Is Cloud enough to make up for it 👇" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1993430302291857560) 2025-11-25T21:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Anyone modeled Pragmatics margins Unlike $EVO running 62% EBIT Pragmatic operates with lower commissions smaller scale and lower avg bet size. Is it closer to the $PTEC ballpark Are they really grinding on 5-10% margins or am I missing a cost efficiency Is scale enough" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1994812345357668413) 2025-11-29T16:54Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "Curious to hear thoughts from the $EVO heavyweights: @LNathell @MarienLechevin @Speedwell_LLC @SorobanCount @gnufs @TheREALMADriD94" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1994812609846190328) 2025-11-29T16:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "I see many people on X mistakenly attributing a global moat to $UBER. The assumption is that winning New York and London makes winning Mumbai and Seoul inevitable. In reality each geography is a separate battleground. Ubers retreats (China Southeast Asia Russia) and struggles (South Korea India) show this clearly: network effects tied to physical operations are inherently local. In a true global network (like Facebook or Airbnb) a new user in Brazil adds value to a user in Germanyif I list my apartment in Berlin a tourist from Rio benefits. In contrast for a local network like Uber a driver" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2004553505944539344) 2025-12-26T14:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "This will be an important part of the AOM race. Of course this should not be a surprise given that obesity is a chronic condition. However it highlights that a large part of the market might go to maintenance therapy. Orforglipron showed decent promise in this regard in the ATTAIN-MAINTAIN trials though the results were not terrific. It would be interesting to see a similar study for oral Wegovy. Does that exist I am not sure whether the fasting requirements would be an issue during maintenance therapy compared to acute therapy. Perhaps it would be no issue; people have managed much more" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2004597278309245312) 2025-12-26T16:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "In [----] studies showed that 63% of the population experiences some form of needle fear. Meanwhile only 1% of eligible obesity patients are currently treated with GLP-1s. With $NVO's oral Wegovy now FDA-approved and launching by the end of this week we are witnessing a massive accessibility shift. Starting doses will be $149 targeting another accessibility barrier in the form of cost. Oral Wegovy is likely to become more than just a new form of the same drugit is a demographic unlock. If Novo can manage the supply chain intensity their TAM just doubled. $NVO $LLY $VKTX" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2005915714704564320) 2025-12-30T08:15Z [--] followers, 10K engagements "This is what I see many $UBER bulls get wrong regarding insurance reserves. The "Cash Reality" argument ignores the temporal mismatch of a growing insurance book: Cash Outflows: Lagging. Heavily weighted toward the smaller portfolios of the past. Reserve Expense: Real-time. Burdened by the record-breaking volume of today. As long as the portfolio grows FCF is artificially boosted because the cash burden hasn't caught up to the volume yet. If/when Uber stops growing cash inflows and outflows converge. That is when we see if they are under-reserved. To be clear: Telematics IS a massive edge." [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2007085017210470843) 2026-01-02T13:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Great post However minor adjustments must be made to net cash due to minority interests. Given 68% ownership in JDL and 67% in JD Health which have net cash of 8.1B RMB and 30.5B RMB respectively we need to subtract 12.6B RMB (approximately $1.8B). Although this makes no extreme change to the valuation $JD is still extremely cheap https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007775872854429933 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007775872854429933" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2007775872854429933) 2026-01-04T11:27Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "Does anyone know why player numbers have shifted from Crazy Time to Big Baller Is it organic or due to Crazy Time being disabled for multiple operators In Sweden Crazy Time has always been difficult to find with operators while Big Baller is always available. Has Evolution made any changes $EVO $EVVTY $EVO.ST" [X Link](https://x.com/RigbyValue/status/2016065180707193245) 2026-01-27T08:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "To people upset with $UNH revenue guidance: $UNH has clearly grown into a much less profitable portfolio than usualthats the whole reason we are in a turnaround situation. How can you expect the company to retain (and even increase) the current book while trying to recover margins Clearly the unprofitable segments of past growth must be exited. You cant just increase premiums and hope everything works out in insuranceyoull end up risking adverse selection" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2016120762638254141) 2026-01-27T12:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@RigbyValue E. RigbyE. Rigby posts on X about $evo, $jd, evo, $evvty the most. They currently have [--] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence stocks 38.67% technology brands 16% finance 9.33% fashion brands 2.67% countries 2.67% automotive brands 1.33% travel destinations 1.33%
Social topic influence $evo #52, $jd 18.67%, evo 12%, $evvty #3, $nvo 9.33%, $pdd 8%, $evost #10, $ptec #1, food 5.33%, health 5.33%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @deepicevalue @valuationedge @julius5207 @tacticzh @thezackzhu @callycrypto @dividenddude @thelonginvest @hatedmoats @marienlechevin @gnufs @will53613248 @returnsjourney @suericgp @investlikeiroh @speedwellllc @leotraydes @wearycenturion @dirtygreenpaper @amaymd
Top assets mentioned Evotec SE (EVO) Novo-Nordisk (NVO) Alibaba Group (BABA) DraftKings Inc. Class A Common Stock (DKNG) Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT) PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) Metadium (META) Adobe, Inc. (ADBE) Gambling.com Group Limited (GAMB) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Crocs, Inc. (CROX) MercadoLibre Inc (MELI) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) Spotlight (SPOTLIGHT) Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Nike Inc (NKE)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Short thread about why $EVO $EVO.ST $EVVTY has an impenetrable moat: It is wise to differentiate between the moat that creates barriers to entry for new firms and the competitive advantage against existing competitors mainly Pragmatic and $PTEC. Management often claims low barriers to entry but high barriers to success but this essentially means high barriers to entry. Theoretically anyone can set up a camera to livestream dealing cards online but in reality costs are high. To run a blackjack table 24/7 for a month yields about [-----] rounds (24 hours [--] days [--] rounds/hour). This requires 4.5"
X Link 2025-12-25T11:23Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"This previous post focused mainly on competitors entering the B2B arena. But what if $EVO $EVO.ST $EVVTY's B2C customers ( $DKNG $FLUT etc) start inhousing their own Live Casino Many bears argue that as B2C operators get larger they will insource Live Casino to save margin. Here is why vertical integration in Live Casino is a trap and why $EVO remains essential even to the giants. Operators are marketing and tech companies. Their expertise is CAC retention and sportsbook pricing. Live Casino is a logistics and media business. Managing 100s of dealers lighting complex video compression and"
X Link 2025-12-26T07:38Z [--] followers, 18.6K engagements
"We conclude this short series on the moat of $EVO $EVO.ST and $EVVTY by discussing its competitive position against main rivals Pragmatic Play and $PTEC. First what allows $EVO to maintain a consistently higher take rate than competitors Why can't Pragmatic undercut them significantly (They do try but $EVO is rarely excluded from operators' game selections.) Operators fear churn. If a VIP player logs into Bet365 and cannot find Crazy Time or Lightning Roulette they will switch to a casino that offers them. Online casinos are largely commoditized with little player loyalty. Operators avoid"
X Link 2025-12-27T08:41Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@julius5207 I see your what you are saying but if the cash pile keeps on building after reinvestments are made you are only getting a return according to the interest rates on that cash. Also if the share is as undervalued as $PDD seem to be buybacks would yield higher return than interest"
X Link 2025-08-26T16:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@DeepIceValue How do you feel about $JD"
X Link 2025-09-22T17:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@DeepIceValue I like $PDD at this valuation to some extent as well. However the retail business is a bit cyclical and of course $PDD and $BABA will do better than $JD in a downturn like this . I feel like $JD at EV/EBIT [---] compared to $PDD at [--] is a good deal"
X Link 2025-09-22T18:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@DeepIceValue I feel like there is less intrinsic risk with $JD as well given that they are actually doing buybacks and dividends. However as they cater to different segments of the market I wouldnt mind owning both"
X Link 2025-09-22T18:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@julius5207 Would you elaborate on how $PDD is a better business in every way They serve different segments and will of course benefit differently by different times in the economic cycle"
X Link 2025-10-10T07:58Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@julius5207 Isnt it quite an unfair comparison to compare margins that are basically on GMV as they are actually selling the items with the margins on commissions Try $PDD margins on GMV. Is Costco/Amazon/Walmarts low retail margins a bad thing or is it actually part om their moat"
X Link 2025-10-10T10:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@TacticzH I am long $NVO but these double y-axis plots can prove any point. PE would be less misleading"
X Link 2025-10-10T17:00Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@Leo_Traydes I feel like the point is that with all fees included you never beat the market by putting the money in a hedge fund"
X Link 2025-10-15T06:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Bad quarter for $EVO $EVVTY there might have been signs in the player data. However 4% growth yoy on constant currency while having full ringfencing this quarter compared to Q2 [----]. That is not too bad although under expectations"
X Link 2025-10-23T06:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@the_zack_zhu $JDs retaliation to Meituans enter into instant commerce was probably unwise. However what do you think of $JDs quality differentiation in food delivery Is it catching on at all"
X Link 2025-11-26T07:35Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"A value investors watchlist: 🟢 Buying $EVO / $EVVTY $CROX $JD $PYPL $NVO 🟡 Watching Closely: $META $ADBE $PDD $BABA 🔴 Hard Pass (Valuation): $MSFT $TSLA $MELI $ASML For me its always PriceMoat. Which one do you think is wrong"
X Link 2025-11-30T12:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"A common error I see when people analyze $JD and its cash position is forgetting to account for minority interest @weary_centurion Great post However minor adjustments must be made to net cash due to minority interests. Given 68% ownership in JDL and 67% in JD Health which have net cash of 8.1B RMB and 30.5B RMB respectively we need to subtract 12.6B RMB (approximately $1.8B). Although this makes no @weary_centurion Great post However minor adjustments must be made to net cash due to minority interests. Given 68% ownership in JDL and 67% in JD Health which have net cash of 8.1B RMB and 30.5B"
X Link 2026-01-04T11:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@HatedMoats $EVO clearly has a big moat as highlighted by $LVS exit out of the market. $GAMB however seem to have no moat besides their prop urls which are to dependent on Google algorithms . While possibly cheap by financials all growth is driven by acquisitions"
X Link 2025-10-08T06:11Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@HatedMoats Gillespie has proved to be a decent acquirer this far but they seem to be branching out even more and more. This new spotlight Las Vegas business is basically Las Vegas while LV is on a downturn. A bet on $GAMB is a bet on Gillespies acquisition skills http://booking.com http://booking.com"
X Link 2025-10-08T06:14Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"Headwinds from Asia will continue to be a drag and is probably not getting solved anytime soon. That being said $EVO is not losing markets share Playtech and Pragmatic are seeming similar poor growth in players. As long as regulation continues to happen slowly we will see"
X Link 2025-10-23T20:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"the compounding resume. Otherwise even no real growth will suffice for good yields from these levels. Biggest risk continues to be regulatory but overall trend remains towards regulation. One bonus is that $EVO can have a go at Playtechs market share if the litigation"
X Link 2025-10-23T20:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@MarienLechevin Will you post $EVO player numbers and market share this month Very appreciated each month when you do"
X Link 2025-11-02T19:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@dirtygreenpaper $JD has a clear moat in its vertical integration of the Chinese e-commerce market. It is the must trusted brand in a country where trust is everything. Whenever they stop burning cash in food delivery $JD will fly"
X Link 2025-11-24T18:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@A_May_MD @flippyfloppy52 Why do you compare to Tirzepatide for a next gen drug Wouldnt it be more fair to compare with Retatrutide $LLY $NVO"
X Link 2025-11-25T19:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@FromValue $TSM $EVO $GOOG"
X Link 2025-11-25T21:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@GOOG @GOOGL getting very steep at this level. I dont see how they will overperform the market from this point. As I dont have to pay sales tax I will begin trimming"
X Link 2025-11-26T06:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@gnufs @TheTimeInvestor Haha point taken lots of ifs required if you look at short term catalysts. And of course there are risks with investing in a industry like this. However long term those risks are reduced if you believe that $EVO moat is as big as I believe. Gambling wont cease to exist"
X Link 2025-11-29T17:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@CallyCrypto @dividenddude So you believe it is fairly valued at this price"
X Link 2025-11-30T08:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@DividendTalks Buying $NVO and $JD"
X Link 2025-11-30T12:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@SayNoToTrading "Value" is not outdated. People just confuse it with "Low P/E. Buffett's core logic remains: High Growth + High ROIC = Justified High Multiples. Thats exactly why Big Tech won. The math hasn't changed. The investors job is still forecasting cash flows not chasing narratives"
X Link 2025-11-30T12:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Will53613248 @CallyCrypto @dividenddude With high capex were seeing a 2% FCF yield. Thats too risky for a 25% allocation. Even average returns now require great execution. If you run a valuation model what specific growth assumptions are you using to justify the current price"
X Link 2025-11-30T13:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Will53613248 @CallyCrypto @dividenddude I agree Q3 earnings were great but the price is becoming stretched. TPUs have been around for ages; they aren't suddenly going to disrupt $NVDA and become Google's main business. Remember they don't even do it alonethey still depend heavily on $AVGO for design & IP"
X Link 2025-11-30T14:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@YodaStockInvest Ive been close with $EVO no one comes near them in live casino. They basically cant be outpriced"
X Link 2025-11-30T15:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"I would argue that $TSM's might be wider. Every fab can buy a High-NA EUV however only TSMC can produce the top of the line chips holding 90% of the advanced market. The biggest moat might be in the execution not the machine. It is a close call though and dont see any of them getting disrupted anytime soon. $ASML"
X Link 2025-11-30T16:27Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@meetblossomapp @fiscal_ai Once the hyperscalers capex cycle is over $NVDA's growth will slow. This current capex cant be sustained inevitably"
X Link 2025-11-30T21:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@DividendDynasty What growth do you model for $ADBE and $PYPL Do you model margin expansion/contraction"
X Link 2025-12-01T07:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"$JD will be a terrific investment as soon as they reduce their investments in food delivery. They have a clear moat in quality branding and logistics. Preferably they should fight to expand that moat or at least not try to burn money in overtaking Meituan. Meituans network effects will be a hard barrier to break"
X Link 2025-12-01T19:07Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@ValuationEdge_ @TheLongInvest I am long $JD but double y-axes aint it. This could just as well be depicted as $JD having been way too overvalued and now beginning to become fairly valued by rescaling one axis"
X Link 2025-12-01T19:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@ValuationEdge_ @TheLongInvest I mean I understand what you're saying and we probably agree on $JD as a whole. People on FinX love these double y-axes for a reason. They seem to give a clear message while being able to convey whatever message you want"
X Link 2025-12-01T19:41Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@ResearchPulse1 I'm not sure if that's good if it's the case Price war incoming"
X Link 2025-12-01T19:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"I agree that $NVO's price reductions should probably have come even sooner. They should focus more on expanding the market than squeezing current customers. However my main concern is whether this will become a race to the bottom on prices given $LLY's quick response. As long as Zepbound and Wegovy remain at comparable prices I assume Zepbound will take the majority of sales. If $NVO management responds as quickly as $LLY price decreases may accelerate beyond what is comfortable. I just hope the new management doesn't get bloodlust after these initial positive results and chase TRx at any cost"
X Link 2025-12-01T20:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@BlackBeltStocks Late reply but may I ask: what was your thesis when you first invested in $EVO"
X Link 2025-12-02T21:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@DeepIceValue Under what assumptions are $META and $AMZN undervalued"
X Link 2025-12-03T13:21Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@CapexAndChill Do you expect margins to expand much more What will drive this"
X Link 2025-12-09T10:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@the_zack_zhu @ReturnsJourney I read that 73% of $JD GMV is 3P could this be correct This was in [----] though I believe"
X Link 2025-12-10T16:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@the_zack_zhu @ReturnsJourney Thought it sounded high thanks. Been trying to model the contribution of 3P to JD retail operating income. I suspect that the majority of margin expansion is attributed to 3P but cant confirm"
X Link 2025-12-10T17:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@DeepIceValue @SuEricGP I see you write about $EVO sometimes but you are not holding any position"
X Link 2025-12-11T12:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@SuEricGP @DeepIceValue Sorry hehe referenced @DeepIceValue I know you do"
X Link 2025-12-11T12:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Investorgambles I don't think there are many long-term shorts. Most are probably momentum-driven awaiting regulatory repercussions from the UK Gambling Commission and backlash from the $EVO Black Cube legal process. They're most likely technical rather than valuation-based"
X Link 2025-12-23T18:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Short thread about why $EVO $EVO.ST $EVVTY has a impenetrable moat: I think it is wise to differentiate between the moat that creates the barrier to entry for new firms compared to competitive advantage against current competitors in this case mainly Pragmatic and $PTEC. While management usually likes to talk about low barriers to entry and high barriers for success I would argue that this is just essentially means that it is high barriers to entry in the first place. It is true that theoretically anyone can set up a camera to livestream themselves dealing cards online. However in reality"
X Link 2025-12-25T11:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@QualityInvest5 Their time will comenot enough to support the valuation but enough to drive it unsupervised"
X Link 2025-12-26T17:57Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@ValuationEdge_ If you compare branding moats which one do you think is more sustainable over time My bet is on $NKE but $LULU is definitely better value"
X Link 2025-12-26T17:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheLongInvest $JD is definitely undervalued. However I'm not sure what to think about the cash burning in food delivery. Is it necessary for them to have a hand in instant commerce"
X Link 2025-12-26T19:07Z [--] followers, 12.8K engagements
"@investlikeiroh What was your thesis What have you reconsidered"
X Link 2025-12-26T20:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks great reply Do you think we are going into steady decline for US sales now Also what do you think about the HEYDUDE turnaround Management clearly oversupplied wholesale and are cleaning that up now but my view is that the interest for the brand is as high as ever given google trends and discussion on forums etc. I think they are well positioned for slow sustainable growth after this wholesale inventory cleanup. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2004836731292455423 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2004836731292455423"
X Link 2025-12-27T08:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@ValuationEdge_ Great analysis My biggest caution with $LULU is that they are washing out the brand by oversupplying and discounting in the name of growth. Can they keep their premium price tags sustainably I could see myself entering $LULU if the price drops 20%-30% from here"
X Link 2025-12-27T08:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@investlikeiroh Would you say its a turnaround play Of course HEYDUDE is but the Crocs brand To me its still going strong"
X Link 2025-12-27T13:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@TacticzH Currently buys $EVO and $NVO. Would buy $ASML if it drops"
X Link 2025-12-27T15:09Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"I agree Q4 most likely wont be the rebound were waiting for. Player numbers are trending well according to but from a historically low base. That said at this valuation barely any growth is required. The moat remains strong and the main risk is regulatory. Be patient and youll be rewarded with this one. http://liveversion.watch http://liveversion.watch http://liveversion.watch http://liveversion.watch"
X Link 2025-12-27T17:31Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@QCompounding The difference between an 11.6% CAGR and a 9.3% CAGR is massive over this time period: 8100x compared to 1468x. Of course an expensive quality asset will do well over that period but value remains a fundamental factor for outperformance"
X Link 2025-12-27T18:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"With retatrutide and orforglipron showing worse-than-expected results I'm not sure what supports this valuation. It doesn't look like a runaway win against $NVOthey'll be competing till the end. The TAM is admittedly enormous but ridiculous growth is needed to support this valuation"
X Link 2025-12-28T17:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@zack_quant @TacticzH When would you ever assume a terminal growth rate greater than 10% That's ridiculous"
X Link 2026-01-03T16:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Speedwell_LLC The insurance reserves are accounted for in the income statement making the forward P/E accurate (not trailing due to one-time adjustments). Definitely not cheap though at a 25x forward P/E"
X Link 2026-01-04T09:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheLAPurchaser Would you dare gamble with your health and take a non-FDA-approved illegal compounded pill I sure wouldnt and I think a clear majority agrees with me. Once the patent expires and its approved surebut until then why take the risk"
X Link 2026-01-09T22:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"The report today for $EVO $EVVTY was a big disappointment for one of my main holdings. I am not too worried about the overall thesis though. Revenues are up 4% constant currency yoy and this is after big effects from ringfencing in Europe and this terrible quarter in Asia"
X Link 2025-10-23T20:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"is successful and severely damages Playtechs competitive position"
X Link 2025-10-23T20:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Selling $NVO on Evoke results is ridiculous. Market priced 6% of future cash flows on AD prevention Thesis is OBESITY not Alzheimers: 1% of TAM treated Great capacity to meet demand Pipeline: Semaglutide 7.2mg Oral Wegovy CagriSema Amycretin Long $NVO.🐂"
X Link 2025-11-24T17:45Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"$BABA is fighting on two fronts & losing its identity. $JD: Premium & Fast 🚚 $PDD: Dirt Cheap 📉 Taobao is stuck in the messy middle burning cash to defend a fading moat. Cloud is soaring (+34%) but retail is in strategic purgatory. Is Cloud enough to make up for it 👇"
X Link 2025-11-25T21:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Anyone modeled Pragmatics margins Unlike $EVO running 62% EBIT Pragmatic operates with lower commissions smaller scale and lower avg bet size. Is it closer to the $PTEC ballpark Are they really grinding on 5-10% margins or am I missing a cost efficiency Is scale enough"
X Link 2025-11-29T16:54Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"Curious to hear thoughts from the $EVO heavyweights: @LNathell @MarienLechevin @Speedwell_LLC @SorobanCount @gnufs @TheREALMADriD94"
X Link 2025-11-29T16:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"I see many people on X mistakenly attributing a global moat to $UBER. The assumption is that winning New York and London makes winning Mumbai and Seoul inevitable. In reality each geography is a separate battleground. Ubers retreats (China Southeast Asia Russia) and struggles (South Korea India) show this clearly: network effects tied to physical operations are inherently local. In a true global network (like Facebook or Airbnb) a new user in Brazil adds value to a user in Germanyif I list my apartment in Berlin a tourist from Rio benefits. In contrast for a local network like Uber a driver"
X Link 2025-12-26T14:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"This will be an important part of the AOM race. Of course this should not be a surprise given that obesity is a chronic condition. However it highlights that a large part of the market might go to maintenance therapy. Orforglipron showed decent promise in this regard in the ATTAIN-MAINTAIN trials though the results were not terrific. It would be interesting to see a similar study for oral Wegovy. Does that exist I am not sure whether the fasting requirements would be an issue during maintenance therapy compared to acute therapy. Perhaps it would be no issue; people have managed much more"
X Link 2025-12-26T16:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"In [----] studies showed that 63% of the population experiences some form of needle fear. Meanwhile only 1% of eligible obesity patients are currently treated with GLP-1s. With $NVO's oral Wegovy now FDA-approved and launching by the end of this week we are witnessing a massive accessibility shift. Starting doses will be $149 targeting another accessibility barrier in the form of cost. Oral Wegovy is likely to become more than just a new form of the same drugit is a demographic unlock. If Novo can manage the supply chain intensity their TAM just doubled. $NVO $LLY $VKTX"
X Link 2025-12-30T08:15Z [--] followers, 10K engagements
"This is what I see many $UBER bulls get wrong regarding insurance reserves. The "Cash Reality" argument ignores the temporal mismatch of a growing insurance book: Cash Outflows: Lagging. Heavily weighted toward the smaller portfolios of the past. Reserve Expense: Real-time. Burdened by the record-breaking volume of today. As long as the portfolio grows FCF is artificially boosted because the cash burden hasn't caught up to the volume yet. If/when Uber stops growing cash inflows and outflows converge. That is when we see if they are under-reserved. To be clear: Telematics IS a massive edge."
X Link 2026-01-02T13:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Great post However minor adjustments must be made to net cash due to minority interests. Given 68% ownership in JDL and 67% in JD Health which have net cash of 8.1B RMB and 30.5B RMB respectively we need to subtract 12.6B RMB (approximately $1.8B). Although this makes no extreme change to the valuation $JD is still extremely cheap https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007775872854429933 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007775872854429933"
X Link 2026-01-04T11:27Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"Does anyone know why player numbers have shifted from Crazy Time to Big Baller Is it organic or due to Crazy Time being disabled for multiple operators In Sweden Crazy Time has always been difficult to find with operators while Big Baller is always available. Has Evolution made any changes $EVO $EVVTY $EVO.ST"
X Link 2026-01-27T08:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"To people upset with $UNH revenue guidance: $UNH has clearly grown into a much less profitable portfolio than usualthats the whole reason we are in a turnaround situation. How can you expect the company to retain (and even increase) the current book while trying to recover margins Clearly the unprofitable segments of past growth must be exited. You cant just increase premiums and hope everything works out in insuranceyoull end up risking adverse selection"
X Link 2026-01-27T12:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
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