#  @KNielsen2000 Kim Nielsen Kim Nielsen posts on X about $nvo, $lly, $vktx, $zeal the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1797282650668797953/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] -33% - [--] Month [---------] +76% - [--] Months [---------] +546% - [--] Year [---------] +909% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1797282650668797953/posts_active)  - [--] Month [---] -32% - [--] Months [---] +196% - [--] Year [-----] +152% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1797282650668797953/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +3.80% - [--] Month [-----] +41% - [--] Months [-----] +158% - [--] Year [-----] +317% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1797282650668797953/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) [finance](/list/finance) [countries](/list/countries) [currencies](/list/currencies) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [us election](/list/us-election) **Social topic influence** [$nvo](/topic/$nvo) #8, [$lly](/topic/$lly) #5, [$vktx](/topic/$vktx) #2, [$zeal](/topic/$zeal), [$gubra](/topic/$gubra), [data](/topic/data), [in the](/topic/in-the), [wegovy](/topic/wegovy), [ceo](/topic/ceo) #1785, [$mtsr](/topic/$mtsr) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@bioinvestor24](/creator/undefined) [@jcannush](/creator/undefined) [@gilamonstrum](/creator/undefined) [@semodough](/creator/undefined) [@investseekers](/creator/undefined) [@manonthepen](/creator/undefined) [@amaymd](/creator/undefined) [@aschulz888](/creator/undefined) [@meadowcapital](/creator/undefined) [@cigs1234](/creator/undefined) [@paulcerro](/creator/undefined) [@jul05310473john](/creator/undefined) [@doctorsalomon](/creator/undefined) [@doepkemichel](/creator/undefined) [@jq1234t](/creator/undefined) [@rnflex](/creator/undefined) [@kontrainvest](/creator/undefined) [@yaireinhorn](/creator/undefined) [@applehelix](/creator/undefined) [@novonordisk](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo) [Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)](/topic/$lly) [Viking Therapeutics, Inc (VKTX)](/topic/$vktx) [Metsera, Inc. (MTSR)](/topic/$mtsr) [Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)](/topic/$hims) [Pfizer, Inc. (PFE)](/topic/$pfe) [GLP1 (GLP1)](/topic/glp1) [Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)](/topic/costco) [AbbVie Inc (ABBV)](/topic/$abbv) [CVS Health Corp (CVS)](/topic/cvs) [Akropolis (AKRO)](/topic/$akro) [Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)](/topic/$mrk) [BioAge Labs, Inc. (BIOA)](/topic/$bioa) [DOSE (DOSE)](/topic/dose) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "@Jul05310473John Comparing results from different clinical trials can be difficult. And yet we all do it. Comparing preclinical data is even more difficult. However we have preclinical data from DIO trials" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1798344717933142237) 2024-06-05T13:22Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@ASchulz888 1) Great post with well-thought arguments. Regarding Merck I dont see any strengthen negotiating position for them by mention that their focus is oral small molecule meds. Merck would only be in a strengthen Position if no other companies want to talk with VKTX about VK2735" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1802307740460569061) 2024-06-16T11:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@yaireinhorn @Stifel @novonordisk @BowTiedBiotech Those $70bn is not just for obesity. If its strictly obesity that number was $6bn last year. That will grow to about $15bn this year" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1802796017437262300) 2024-06-17T20:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@semodough Gzr18 is actually quite good results. Its in low body weight as all Chinese trials. Wegovy and Zepbound is about 5% lower in Chinese populations vs US/EU. Gzr18 reach better weight loss in [--] weeks than Zepbound in [--] weeks Chinese trial" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1804966419966099762) 2024-06-23T19:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@MWM76 $lly and $nvo already have a very rich pipeline of new AOM. So count them out of the herd of companies that would either license VK2735 or make a BO" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1805364950556459462) 2024-06-24T22:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@ASchulz888 @MWM76 As mentioned $LLY already have a very rich obesity pipeline. So they would not spend that kind of money on $vktx" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1805365667228426303) 2024-06-24T22:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@doepke_michel @semodough $LLY also has [--] Amylin in phase [--] and [--]. $nvo will enter yet another Amylin in [--]. Half [--]. This one a mono Amylin" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1805636432192590272) 2024-06-25T16:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@doepke_michel Yes. CagriSema phase [--] readout nov/dec [--]. Also 72mg high dose Wegovy phase [--] readout in q4 [--] And in July phase [--] obesity data on INV-202. New real small molecule" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1805971637335937335) 2024-06-26T14:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@crypto_biotech Why is VK2735 the easiest to make a pill compared to other SC 15mg per week Oral 60mg day 420mg per week [----] oral 28x API vs SC Wegovy SC 2.4mg week Oral Rybelsus 9mg(new more potent vs current 14mg) Oral 26.5x API vs 2.4mg Wegovy So both oral very challenging to scale" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1807114511746281559) 2024-06-29T18:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@semodough Thanks for sharing. Do you know if IQVIA data for the week 21/6 is with a closing day for Juneteenth National Independence Day Mounjaro Ozempic and Wegovy numbers are crazy if that is with only [--] opening days" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1807797632808497384) 2024-07-01T15:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@ASchulz888 @jimcramer Wait what. That cant be real. FDA approve competing drugs all the time $LLY and $vktx is to very different investment cases. At lot of those who invest in LLY doesnt want the much higher risk in VKTX. And visa versa. Biotech investors seek the higher risk/reward" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1808165657445302653) 2024-07-02T15:47Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@Vera_Icona_23 @MartyChargin Limited capex. $nvo has announced capex investments above $20B within the last [--] month. $6-8B to produce more API. Its not API thats the main bottleneck. Thats lack of pen/auto-injector and fill/finish capacity" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1808192549594820609) 2024-07-02T17:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@ASchulz888 @jimcramer And then the completely false way to compare US prices with European prices. Comparing US list prices with lowest doses in Europe. In US its the same price regardless of dose. In Europe the price for 2.4mg Wegovy is about 75% higher than start doses. So about $300-350 for 2.4" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1808245586665394307) 2024-07-02T21:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$nvo starts more phase [--] with Amycretin. See their phase [--] program at CT NNC0487-0111 Close to [---] P and up to 32w data ready jan [--]. Testing higher doses and new formulations. Better bioavailability $nvo shooting for phase [--] mid [--]. But will FDA let them What do you think" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1808389380198764612) 2024-07-03T06:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@andrei_hamza I disagree with the shady part. This is how Big Pharma almost always do with early data. They dont need to advertise like biotech who need a partner to take it further. Also see my new post. New Amycretin data is on the doorstep" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810008383858307315) 2024-07-07T17:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@andrei_hamza That was at their CMD which they only do every other year. So its normal that they open a bit more from the labs than what they do otherwise. They also gave a glimpse of their GLP1/GIP which now is in P2 H2H with Mounjaro/Zepbound" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810033859850891364) 2024-07-07T19:31Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@andrei_hamza By the way theres a whole session about "he promise of GIP and GIPR antagonism: bridging the gap" https://cattendee.abstractsonline.com/meeting/20620/Session/649 https://cattendee.abstractsonline.com/meeting/20620/Session/649" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810035535634714738) 2024-07-07T19:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "1) 145% of the Danish population is now on Wegovy Try to scale that to US and EU The official sales numbers for May were released today. [------] Danes equal 1.45% of the total population AND for the [--]. Month in row the numbers increased with [---] thousand of the population $nvo" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810384139025096945) 2024-07-08T18:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "2) Denmark is interesting since its 100% out of pocket AND that together with Norway the only two countries with NO restrictions on supply. Meaning we here see the actual pull from the market. No backorders" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810384391069381053) 2024-07-08T18:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "3) If we scale Danish numbers to US/EU it will look like this 1.45% of US is [----] mill P 1.45% of EU is [---] mill P [----] mill with current net prices is about $50.5B About [-------] Americans are currently on wegovy and about [-------] on Zepbound" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810385056235467050) 2024-07-08T18:46Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Kevin_M_Biotech $nvo has [--] oral clinical assets. Is there anyone that has more 50mg Rybelsus. Same WL as Wegovy [---]. P3 data out Amycretin 13.1% WL in 12W Inv-202 small molecule CBr1 will report two P2 in the coming W Inv-347 p1 data early 25" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810541378306179372) 2024-07-09T05:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@MattBiotech @Jul05310473John Its a bit funny that another CEO talks more positive about inv-202 than what the owner $NVO does Novo says about 15% and not up to 19% Regarding side effects its not the GI that in focus. Its the psychiatric side effects of depression and anxiety that the potential pitfall" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810712406777086374) 2024-07-09T16:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@MattBiotech @Jul05310473John And seems that $nvo wants to make a big phase 2b before moving to P3. They want to see more data side effects data" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810712909183381794) 2024-07-09T16:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@down_dogdiv @Pharmdca @andrei_hamza $nvo already have a rich obesity pipeline including a GLP1/GIP in two H2H P2b trials with Mounjaro/zepbound. And their main focus with new obesity programs is new targets and new modalities" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810731643226763578) 2024-07-09T17:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@ASchulz888 When listening to AMG CC its not like they have a lot of love for GIP agonist as mechanism. I believe AMG has the most awaited readout this year. Even though CagriSema arguably is the readout with the most financial impact. Maritide is the biggest joker on the market" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810755099863699874) 2024-07-09T19:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@ASchulz888 @andrei_hamza Its not uncommon to see some BP seeking new targets/modalities and not following in others footsteps. To me the two companies Im most sure will NOT BO vktx thats PPE and MRK" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810759032367366322) 2024-07-09T19:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@Kevin_M_Biotech @ASchulz888 $nvo is 110% anything than a potential buyer of $vktx Together with LLY they already have a rich obesity pipeline including their own GLP1/GIP in two P2B trials H2H against Mounjaro/Zepbound On top of that NVO has no history with buying $10B. Largest $3B tech platform" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810786931367882811) 2024-07-09T21:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@Kevin_M_Biotech @Pharmdca $nvo already last year reported from [--] big hart trials and Wegovy have received label expansion from FDA. So for that part its $LLY that catching up" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1811071776501420487) 2024-07-10T16:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@BertrandBio $nvo CagriSema valued as the drug in clinical development that has the highest value. And CagriSema as the top sales obesity med in 2030" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1811075936609083491) 2024-07-10T16:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@semodough IF semaglutide ends with significant AD data. its another blowout. And its only with the 14mg dose and not the 25/50mg $NVO tested in obesity. Also Rybelsus will substantially undercut $LLY prices for AD medicine" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1811338277837770828) 2024-07-11T09:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@semodough I believe the AD trials is the reason $NVO has not launched 25/50mg Rybelsus. The want to make sure they have enough API to potential supply a huge AD market" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1811338960041377945) 2024-07-11T09:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@sneakview @DanielJDrucker @EMA_News @novonordiskus @US_FDA This will also impact Wegovy/ozempic scaling. ICodec will reduce numbers of pens and fillings" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1811447140415119437) 2024-07-11T17:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Kevin_M_Biotech @CloisterRes $nvo has the broadest oral pipeline in the industry. All the way from filing ready to small molecules and the by far best oral WL seen so up until today" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1812211033089446346) 2024-07-13T19:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@semodough $nvo use extensive obesity research into +4 weeks SC and plus 1w oral obesity meds. They already have a once month GLP1/GIP in P1 as well as oral once per week in P1. And MAYBE a once per month oral in P1 inv347" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1812267163983708527) 2024-07-13T23:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@semodough Thanx for sharing. Do you also have their slide where they show TRX for Trulicity Mounjaro Zepbound Ozempic and Wegovy" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1812856782831677501) 2024-07-15T14:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@Leo09416981 @jq1234t Yes thats why oral peptides never will scale BIG. $nvo also has done P3 with 50mg Rybelsus They have a new generation SNAC coming out soon. So the amount of API will be reduced" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1812873073030217801) 2024-07-15T15:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@BiotechObserver @semodough @DewDiligence It actually is an important difference between small molecules vs peptide. Oral peptide scales poorly. Just ask $nvo and their Rybelsus. The oral version of Ozempic/wegovy (only approved in T2D)" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1813693663760789975) 2024-07-17T21:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@BiotechObserver @iowajustin @0xPasserby @semodough @DewDiligence You are using T2D results. The pure obesity trial showed the same WL as Wegovy [---] https://www.novonordisk.com/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.htmlid=166110 https://www.novonordisk.com/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.htmlid=166110" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1813838526905192936) 2024-07-18T07:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@BiotechObserver @iowajustin @0xPasserby @semodough @DewDiligence Correct theres definitely not the same demand for the weaker 14mg Rybelsus vs Wegovy. But that would change if they got 50mg approved in obesity. However to my understanding they have not even filed it. And thats because it scales poorly" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1813839265303826605) 2024-07-18T07:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@iowajustin @BiotechObserver @0xPasserby @semodough @DewDiligence Rybelsus (and all peptides) scale poorly as oral. It takes 41x amount of API [--] dose [--] person for a year with Rybelsus vs Wegovy. About 1.2million use Rybelsus. That API could supply close to [--] million person on Wegovy" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1813840674657350088) 2024-07-18T07:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@jq1234t Thats good reflections. Even though the TAM is massively BIG theres not room for a ton of different GLP1s. Merck is saying more or less the same. Looking for something other than GLP1. $nvo has done more than [--] RD deals the last [--] years for novel targets next gen AOM" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1813999511053934998) 2024-07-18T18:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@jq1234t $nvs mentioning siRNA as interesting obesity space At $nvo CMD24 they spoke about how they will get [--] new siRNA P1 per year going forward. And 50% of their siRNA research projects is within T2D/obesity. Maybe I should start looking more in to this space 🤔" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1814005121715695857) 2024-07-18T18:31Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@plustickbid He specifically mentioned they are not interested in anything GLP1 and GIP. They want novel targets and are looking/working at siRNA" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1814342145530110226) 2024-07-19T16:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "16.8% placebo adjusted weight loss in [--] weeks for a pure GLP1. Thats really good data. China starts to move China's Gan & Lee unveils mid-stage data for homegrown obesity drug $NVO $LLY https://t.co/l7xJ8sK8MZ China's Gan & Lee unveils mid-stage data for homegrown obesity drug $NVO $LLY https://t.co/l7xJ8sK8MZ" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1815460115669283236) 2024-07-22T18:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Jul05310473John Way to early to talk about CB1 as disrupting the market. And $NVO says about 15% WL at not 19%. Just wach their CMD24 presentation NVO did not pay $1.1B upfront. A large part of that is conditional on development and sales milestones. They proberly paid about $500 mio upfront" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1816015754816319619) 2024-07-24T07:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@plainyogurt21 @BayAreaBiotechI @Biohazard3737 @drug_smolecules @A_May_MD $nvo "star" CB1 is not INV-202 but INV-343 https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810006445821448371 3) NVO also present preclinical INV-347. Oral CBr1 agonist currently in P1 Have NVO sent the wrong abstract text ne oral dose =129% WL after 1w and 188% W5. W5 268% reduction in FM and only 58% in LM. Al this with only ne oral dose. https://t.co/4PKQcOrpxj https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810006445821448371 3) NVO also present preclinical INV-347. Oral CBr1 agonist currently in P1 Have NVO sent the wrong abstract text ne" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1816196006733574189) 2024-07-24T19:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@AppleHelix What about $nvo" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1816564929928868284) 2024-07-25T20:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@Jul05310473John Thats still not something $nvo has said. They have said about 15% in 68w" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1816581717676707927) 2024-07-25T21:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "$vktx is not potential third but 4/6 to marked. Boehringer Ingelheim already has several P3 trials running. They are the potential third. And then we have $vktx Amgen and Roche battling for next CagriSema will readout end [--]. $nvo said the shoot for +25% WL LLY also has Amylin in P2. Its only a matter of when they will start P2 with Zepbound +Amylin" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1816862900939579799) 2024-07-26T15:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@plustickbid Its not likely that any of them will be in the group of BP talks. Merck is looking for non GLP1 molecules and $PFE already has a lot on their plate for earlier BO" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1816892548935299138) 2024-07-26T17:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Its not just a thought. We should not neglect the fact that that many companies also invest heavily in new novel mechanisms. $nvo started the research into GLP1 more than [--] years ago. And they have the last [--] months made minimum [--] research deals into novel MoA. And Merck goes the same way" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1816904599342571560) 2024-07-26T18:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Of those mentioned $NVO They already have industry high net profit margin. But it will go even higher the coming years as their revenue will increase +30% each year for several years. Their obesity franchise will significantly grow as they get more and more production capacity online. Also they return +50% profit to investors through dividend and share buybacks" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1817475535989088718) 2024-07-28T08:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Amylin would be perfect to combine with CT388. $zeal for a license or $gubra for license or BO. BUT $gubra has to report good P1a data with GubAMY to be in the race. Those data is expected end Q3/primo Q4 IF good data then I see $gubra as one of the obesity biotechs with the highest likelihood of BO. [--] obesity assets and mcap range in the easy end for BP" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1817489235647049833) 2024-07-28T09:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@semodough $nvo mentioned combining CB1 with GLP1 and other mechanisms already last year when they bought Inversago. Inversago that had [--] CB1 meds in their pipeline. I believe $crbp mgmt also have mentioned this before. Are there new comments out" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1818242982883053751) 2024-07-30T11:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@DragonMaxGoku Thats not true. There are FOUR (five) different P3 obesity meds theres closer than VK2735 for potentiel approval. From $LLY Ratratutide and Orforglipron both with readout in [----] From $NVO Cagrisema (and 72mg Wegovy) both with P3 readout this year From Boehringer ingelheim Survodutide with readout [----] Amgen has MariTide that will also start P3 early [----]. Amycretin from $NVO is also on a path for P3 start medio 2025" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1818307029423018158) 2024-07-30T15:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$nvo will report Q2 next week. We should see a lifted [--] guidance on both revenue and Ebit. Wegovy is up more than 50% in US Q2 vs Q1. And is already up further 25% ish on weekly Trx here in Q3. Regarding China then they are about to launch Wegovy in the country. Right now they have +100 open sales positions in China. A lot of them is for GLP1/Obesity. Those +100 open sales positions is more than 50% of open global sales positions. So seems like they are preparing for a big push in China. How the share will move on the Q2 er. your guess is as good as mine 🙂" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1818323860389081599) 2024-07-30T16:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@DragonMaxGoku @jw929204 Sure it matters with their potential new launches. They offer increased WL and thereby raising the bar. And in general offer differentiations for the patients" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1818325277560189229) 2024-07-30T16:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@BiotechSho99376 $MRK also said small molecules GLP1 and not peptides. If thats still their position then $vktx is not in the loop" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1818376150575439921) 2024-07-30T20:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "And yet they still have said they are looking for small molecule GLP1 and not peptide. During the 45th Annual Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference Merck CEO Robert Davis said that the pharma is focusing its R&D efforts more on small molecule oral drugs rather than injectables. Were very much focused on the second- and third-generation opportunities Davis said adding that it is looking to advance GLP-1-targeting candidates that target other conditions on top of eliciting weight loss. So if Merck still prioritises small molecules then $vktx is not in the loop" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1818515694461288625) 2024-07-31T05:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@0xPasserby @IFTF6 @MeadowCapital Yes but how does this fit in to the non peptide GLP1 asset that they are looking for No way Merck comes even close to those $15B. If BL wants that amount then we wont see any BO this time around. I think $MRK are looking for several BO and not just one" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1818615209193308304) 2024-07-31T11:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@faststocknewss Link please. Cant imagine $LLY ceo saying anything like that in the silent period up to next weeks Q2 Earnings. Zepbound and Wegovy will be in shortage through at least [----] but most likely also through 2026" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1819060953130123504) 2024-08-01T17:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Okay apparently a Bloomberg story. Neither $LLY nor $NVO has the capacity to supply the crazy pull from the market. That goes for today as well as next month and next year. What is written on a FDA subpage does not necessarily reflect the realities the patients is experiencing when they visit their local pharmacy" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1819062419651441017) 2024-08-01T17:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@AppleHelix I agree. The upfront cash/stocks will be significantly lower than the mcap mentioned in here frequently. And a good CVR milestone structure could be part of that. Just important those CVR will be tradable at the stock market" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1819103953025409122) 2024-08-01T20:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@MimiinAus23 10-15% cheaper than in Denmark. About the level of Europe" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1820347598206603270) 2024-08-05T06:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "That pill already exists as Rybelsus. $nvo has still not filed for obesity even though they got stellar results last year that matched Wegovy. The challenge is the amount of API there has to go into a pill vs injection. +75x. Meaning [--] million patients on the highest obesity dose with the pill can supply more than [--] million using injection/wegovy. I think they are waiting for the two big P3 Alzheimers trials they also are running with the pill. They want to make sure they have enough API to that IF we next year see significant P3 results" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1820350571204706369) 2024-08-05T06:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@BevTchangMD @US_FDA I to have been curious about this. Wegovy 1mg is FDA listed as en short supply with [----] persons reported they could not find it anywhere Zepbound 5mg and 7.5mg has reporting of 3700-6.000 persons not being able to find those doses anywhere" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1820816514385158216) 2024-08-06T13:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "The pill version of semaglutide already exists. Its call Rybelsus. Highest dose 14mg. But the challenge is that it takes 41x more amount of API to supply one person with Rybelsus vs Wegovy. Therefore it will never be the solution for the huge masses. For that to happen it needs to be small molecules" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1820905628648309121) 2024-08-06T19:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@0xPasserby The last part is easy to answer. No LLY is not outselling $nvo GLP. The latest IQVIA data from week [--] showed $LLY total GLP TRx at [------] vs TRx [------] for NVO GLPs. The pull from the market is still waaaaay larger than what the supply chain can deliver" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1821118717318627601) 2024-08-07T09:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "US analyst data is rather easy since the IQVIA data comes each week. So we know the volume and its only a matter of how big a rebate was given. For Q2 there was a big revision for Wegovy prices especially from [----] but also going forward. New net price seems around $750 for Wegovy" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1821128624805687758) 2024-08-07T10:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "This is extremely twisted by Fierce Biotech. The monthly GLP1/GIP was only a side note compared to other of the early pipeline. It was Amycretin above all other. And those data that moved the share. And then INV-347 an oral small molecule that today was confirmed as infrequent dosing with xxx days between each pill. Also a new Amylin and TRI agonist was detailed on the slides. There was not prepared any specific slide with the once monthly GLP1/GIP. It was just listed at pipeline graph as a phase [--] asset. Then during the Q&A session they got a question about it and their head of R&D said" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1821182422853042382) 2024-08-07T13:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@0xPasserby @paulcerro @BillChildressPE The demand still exceeds the production by a huuuuuge margin. To my knowledge its the highest supply shortage ever registered at the GLP1 tracker. Also for Zepbound. It increases every single day. Wegovy though much faster than Zepbound" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1821251912928219284) 2024-08-07T18:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@BertrandBio Interesting that $zeal then confirm what $NVO and $LLY say about the supply chain being restricted for many years. $VKTX on the other hand believe the supply constraints will be resolved by the time VK2735 potentially can hit the market" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1824374624869548141) 2024-08-16T09:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$nvo mentioned in Q2 call that there was no difference between Wegovy and placebo in suicidal in the huge SELECT study with 17k patients. Also they mentioned that in the coming P2b with inv202 there would also be an arm combining inv202 with Wegovy. That would definitely be interesting to watch" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1825927277361717601) 2024-08-20T16:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Seems like IGC Pharma have developed a GLP1/GIP/CBr1 molecule for obesity and Alzheimers. That sounds crazy I would instantly attract attention from BP including $LLY and $NVO. But what modality is it Is it possible to engage CBr1 through a peptide Or GIP through a small molecule This is quite interesting. IGC Pharma Expands Drug Portfolio to Metabolic Disorders with IGC-1A A Potential New GLP-1 Agonist IGC Stock News #Mounjaro #Rybelsus #Ozempic #Saxenda #Trulicity #Victoza #Wegovy #Zepbound #GLP1 #Dulaglutide #Liraglutide #Retatrutide #Semaglutide https://t.co/6QoDLsHMoC IGC Pharma Expands" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1825960648964190368) 2024-08-20T18:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "They are already [--] years behind. Maybe GGG is a better choice for them If Rybelsus report significant AD data then I think $nvo will start AD trials with Amycretin. $NVO have said that CagriSema can do everything semaglutide can but just better. And Amycreatin is designed to be a better candidate than CagriSema and importantly Amycretin is GLP1 and Amylin in one molecule instead of two" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1825967569917841574) 2024-08-20T18:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Thanks for sharing A few comments. Mounjaro/zepbound sale in Q2 was positively effected by stock filling up. They said between high teens and low twenties percentage of the sale was stock filling and not sale to actual patient. The TRx numbers should be quite accurate. Both $LLY and $nvo use them. The newest TRx is from week [--] with TRx [-------] Mounjaro and TRx [-------] Zepbound. Thats about [----] million patients (only US numbers) To my understanding its not API that the bottleneck for LLY. Its the pens and assembly of the pens. I would also believe LLY API capacity is significantly higher" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1826697502625857600) 2024-08-22T19:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "We have to remember that it takes huuuuge amounts of API to do oral peptides. And for that reason oral peptides will never be the solution for the majority of the potential oral market. For that to happen it needs to be a small molecule. Therefore the main value in VK2735 is the SC version" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1826701162919211203) 2024-08-22T19:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yes technology evolves. But not that much. $NVO built a US API factory in 2016-20/21. Price $2.1B. It created about [---] jobs. During 2021-2023 $NVO announced the construction of [--] new API plants. (One solely for production to clinical trials) Total cost about $12 billion. And it takes 4-5 years to build and certified by FDA. One of those plants can produce more than double the US factory and yet it only creates [---] new jobs. NVO says not even Chinese companies can produce peptide API to the price NVO can. And yet NVO says oral peptides cant get scaled to [--] million patients. It simply takes" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1826910362173644908) 2024-08-23T09:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@semodough @sneakview Wegovy TRx 209k and Ozempic TRx 582k Wegovy new record with 6k Zepbound new record with 13k" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1826994278456770903) 2024-08-23T14:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "You indirectly get the answers from $vktx. You just look at the the amount of API used in their studies. 15mg vs 700mg (once weekly vs once daily) thats 46x API for oral. Wegovy 2.4mg vs currently highest Rybelsus 14mgx7 is 41x amount of API. We will definitely see the oral tech improve and thereby also increase the bioavailability. $NVO is just about to launch their [--]. Generation SNAC. That improvement reduce the 14mg Rybelsus to 9mg. Meaning a reduction from 41x to 26x. $LLY says the same. Oral peptides will be for the high end and high price segment. But to scale BIG you need small" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1827019782803108157) 2024-08-23T16:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Semaglutide can also be produced by SPPS. But $NVO says its significantly more efficient and thereby at lower cost to produce through yeast. As I mentioned in another thread $NVO is currently building [--] new API factories at a cost above $12B. And the production output is +3x over their API lines built a decade ago. So when novo (and $LLY) say oral peptides cant scale really big its on the backbone of the absolutely newest tech with a lot of robotics etc. so no they are not locked to the old tech" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1827028572940185754) 2024-08-23T17:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "It has been mentioned numerous times at their investor presentations. And we can also us self calculate the hug e X factor and see the many billions dollars $LLY and $nvo is investing in new API factories Theres also a reason everyone is chasing oral small molecules. Is there anyone besides $Vktx and $nvo that have oral obesity peptide in the clinic Must be. But cant recall" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1827073405872697843) 2024-08-23T20:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Huh False premises $NVO has also done Rybelsus trials in both T2D and obesity with 25mg and 50mg. And with results like Wegovy 2.4mg. As of now they have only filled for approval in T2D in EU. They havent filed for obesity yet. Solely because of the high usage of API. With [--]. Generation SNAC (novo tech to convert Wegovy to oral) we know it has decreased the current 14mg dose to 9mg. But the havent shared how much 25mg and 50mg can get reduced. The amount of API used is public for us all to see. Whether we talk Rybelsus or VKTX. Yes oral tech will improve over the years and increase the" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1827326302493265962) 2024-08-24T12:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Ehhh no. The high dose is because of the extremely low bioavailability of oral peptides. Meaning it MUST be a very high dose compared to SC. Wegovy 2.4mg per week vs 14x7mg Rybelsus per week. Thats 41x API for Rybelsus. That betters when the launch the new 9mg. But still 26x API The same calculation for VK2735 is 15mg per week SC vs 100x7 for oral. Thats 46x. So same range bioavailability. I think you are mixing the actual amount of API for GLP1 vs GLP1/GIP. You cant compare the amount of API when its not same mechanism. So the 14mg Rybelsus vs 100mg VK2735 doesnt say anything specific about" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1827406514031579645) 2024-08-24T18:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Has the IND for [---] been moved forward They used to say P1 in [----]. In two weeks time $nvo will also present INV347 data at EASD (together with P1 Amycretin) Its only preclinical data on inv347. But NVO just confirmed that the preclinical PK profile suggests infrequent oral dosing. And thats for an oral small molecule. P1 ongoing with expected conclusions later 2024" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1827416546097922240) 2024-08-24T18:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "What Adam mentioned. Oral peptide marked will be more of a lucrative niche business with lower volume. And when small molecules oral obesity hit the market they would be priced significantly lower and take the largest stake of oral obesity. $nvo is currently the only one with a oral GLP1 peptide on the market. Q2 saw SC Ozempic/wegovy sales just below $6B. Their oral Rybelsus (exactly the same molecule) saw sales of about $850 million. Factor 7x for SC. And yet the oral Rybelsus used more than 25x the amount of API So from an analyst side the NPV value of oral [----] is significantly lower than" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1827661944523768246) 2024-08-25T10:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@semodough First time Wegovy crossed the [-------] US patients. Zepbound just above [-------]. Who will be the first to cross [--] million. And when will it happen For reference then it takes a weekly TRx of [-------] as what is equivalent to [--] million patients for one month" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1828122747366486233) 2024-08-26T17:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Thats right. All that can be produced is sold. And Zepbound/wegovy is still only launched in very few countries because of this capacity constraints. For both $LLY and $NVO to reach their [----] guidance Zepbound/Mounjaro and Wegovy/Ozempic sales has to increase FAST for the rest of the year. Thats also why its good to be able to track those IQVIA data each week" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1828137529192649127) 2024-08-26T18:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@chuminhua432 Thanks for sharing. I did not know that requirement for Chinese GLP1 trials. We see more and more Chinese biotech move in to the obesity space. I think we will start to see more BP do license with Chinese biotechs" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1828450181412528441) 2024-08-27T15:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Mark748779211 @cigs1234 We cant use list prices in US since theres a huge rebate. $nvo get about $800 for Wegovy and $LLY about $600 for Zepbound. Expect those prices to be lower in 2030" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1828467727578595456) 2024-08-27T16:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Well in Europe the price for 2.4mg Wegovy is about $350 for [--] weeks supply. And that is more or less all paid by the patient. No healthcare support. And yet we see in a country like Denmark that 1.45% of the total population is on Wegovy. That would be about [---] million Americans paying them self for Wegovy. The pull from the market is much much larger than what currently is possible to supply. We need real small molecule oral to get down to those prices" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1828480528980361232) 2024-08-27T17:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Great new $NVO analysis from the hands of @ditlevfriis I was myself positive surprised that INV-202 was discussed so much at the London call. First time the program got so much attention. And now we await [--] readout from [--] P2 obesity programs. We should hear about the first any day New blog post up on $NVO - link in next tweet https://t.co/7GjmAU85So New blog post up on $NVO - link in next tweet https://t.co/7GjmAU85So" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1828532670256538024) 2024-08-27T20:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Jul05310473John @ditlevfriis Primary Completion has passed and $NVO has said one will report in Q3 and the other in Q4. I dont expect to see more than top line data. Not any detailed side effects. Those will come later in a publication and/or conference" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1828728206616125704) 2024-08-28T09:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "I think $NVO just showed the world their new Amylin named NNC0638-0355 P1 start in sep and estimated to run for one year At NVO CMD24 they showed how AI had been part in selecting the new Amylin. And that it would start P1 this year https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06577766lead=Novo%20Nordisk%20A%2FS&cond=Obesity&aggFilters=status:not&rank=2 https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06577766lead=Novo%20Nordisk%20A%2FS&cond=Obesity&aggFilters=status:not&rank=2" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1829433656638640455) 2024-08-30T08:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "NNC0638-0355 is $NVO first pureplay amylin. Their first was Cagrilintide which is combined with Semaglutide and then makes up CagriSema. CagriSema reports first P3 in nov/dec this year. Expected WL about 25% NVO next amylin is Amycretin. Thats a GLP1/Amylin in one and same molecule. So improved version over CagriSema. But NVO has been missing a pureplay amylin. Either as stand alone (expectet WL about 15-20%) or in combinationes with one or two more. I think we will begin to se more combinationes. Not only for higher WL. But also for improved quality WL. Meaning more fat loss and less lean" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1829439194113957995) 2024-08-30T08:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Does $NVO report P2 obesity data with INV202/Monlunabant shortluy NVO already said they expect to report P2 data in Q3. Late yesterday NVO updated the P2 protocol. So instead of "estimated" date for primary completion it now read "actual" primary completion. I have today bought my first $CRBP. Its not that i think its particular cheap. But NVO and their analyst have the last month or so been talking a lot of the coming P2 data. And no doubt $CRBP will react on Monlunabant data. That goes both directions. So my play is high risk and short. Its a small molecule oral CB1r. [--] weeks studie. NVO" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1829601725038113041) 2024-08-30T19:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$LLY and $NVO Will Continue to have huge supply chain bottlenecks well in to [----] and also [----]. See how few countries Zepbound and Wegovy has launched in. LLY has also said they should build 10x more factories to catch up on the demand. But a lot of the equipment in those huge factories is also a bottleneck" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1830684954050863281) 2024-09-02T19:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Im not aware of shortage in raw material For SC its lack of pens fill capacity and assembly of the pens and vials. Viking is the ONLY who thinks the supply chain is ready for all the demand by [----]. As mentioned LLY said they need to build [--] more factories. And $NVO is buying the largest CDMO for fill/finish capacity. They pay $11B for Catalents [--] FF factories. Furthermore NVO just announced they are building a new Fill/Finish factory in US. Price $41B. And i know NVO is planning to build a factory that can produce around [---] million pens per year. But they need to scale for [---] million in" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1830868935681405393) 2024-09-03T07:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@doepke_michel Also $NVO Amycretin P1 data https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1810005528896012703s=46 1) New NVO Amycretin obesity data Since NVO presented oral P1 Amycretin data at CMD24 with 131% WL in 12W everyone has been asking for more data. Well that time have now arrived. Here are abstract from Amycretin presentation at EASD24 https://t.co/LrpQo44eTU https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1810005528896012703s=46 1) New NVO Amycretin obesity data Since NVO presented oral P1 Amycretin data at CMD24 with 131% WL in 12W everyone has been asking for more data. Well that time have now arrived." [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1830980627895853118) 2024-09-03T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Jul05310473John And if nvo data is bad also expect read through to $crbp I dont expect $nvo to publish side effects. It will only be top line. The rest will follow in publications and conference" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1831051851632095379) 2024-09-03T19:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I agree that Amycretin would be even more interesting if it could get to once monthly. And since i also have Nanexa a deal between $NVO and Nanexa would be more than welcome. $Nanexa PharmaShell is one of [--] external technology platforms NVO is testing right now. To make extended release version to once monthly SC and potential once weekly oral. "Just" a deal on once monthly ozempic version would be more than huge. Especially for Nanexa since they has such low MCAP. But also for NVO since they then could extend their patent runway" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1831235247796568206) 2024-09-04T07:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Mjaaa its definitely a good and very important milestone if the ongoing P1 with once per month victoza/Saxenda confirms and validate the PharmaShell platform. But we dont know what molecules $NVO is testing in their in-house preclinical models. But those studies need to deliver stellar data as well" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1831343179326525855) 2024-09-04T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Update A tip from a smart guy. The 52w length of P3 trials is most likely 52w at max dose. So depending on how many titrations levels it will probably be 68-72 weeks in total" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1831409228344652271) 2024-09-04T19:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Shrimpen1 One of them is a hydrogel that in preclinical test with liraglutide could extend the release to [--] months. I dont know if thats the one use for the GLP1/GIP thats now closed" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1831587908379120001) 2024-09-05T06:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yes it looks to be the same. But I think its external from Standford where $NVO pitched in. Like with $Nanexa. But if thats one of the [--] who havent been in NVO pipeline yet or the one they just pulled. I dont know. But agree that publication/data show to high initial peak. I cant read your second post" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1831626600833483234) 2024-09-05T09:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Gustavo01585102 @Shrimpen1 Theres also an israelien company. Forgot the name" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1831631245794517324) 2024-09-05T09:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Gustavo01585102 @Shrimpen1 I dont dare think of a potential $NVO deal with $Nanexa about semaglutide. The numbers would instantly make it the deal of the decade" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1831632269590643109) 2024-09-05T09:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Its NOT because of lack of API that $NVO is in back order on Ozempic/wegovy. It pens and FF theres the bottlenecks. The same is the case for $LLY Both LLY and NVO is ramping as fast as they can. $NVO has since November [----] made investment in new capacity of more than $25B. More than any other BP. And LLY more than $10B" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1831740046434549808) 2024-09-05T17:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Now the second P2 protocol with Monlunabant (CB1r) has been updated. Primary Completion has been changed from estimated to actual. I think $NVO will make a PR at next weeks EASD with P2 obesity data with Monlunabant. I have bought more $CRBP Does $NVO report P2 obesity data with INV202/Monlunabant shortluy NVO already said they expect to report P2 data in Q3. Late yesterday NVO updated the P2 protocol. So instead of "estimated" date for primary completion it now read "actual" primary completion. I have today Does $NVO report P2 obesity data with INV202/Monlunabant shortluy NVO already said" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1831745060993437952) 2024-09-05T17:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@doepke_michel $NVO Will share more Amycretin data next week at EASD. And possibly also make a PR on P2 monlunabant data next week. https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1831745060993437952s=46 Now the second P2 protocol with Monlunabant (CB1r) has been updated. Primary Completion has been changed from estimated to actual. I think $NVO will make a PR at next weeks EASD with P2 obesity data with Monlunabant. I have bought more $CRBP https://t.co/5i7uvrvDJs https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1831745060993437952s=46 Now the second P2 protocol with Monlunabant (CB1r) has been updated. Primary" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1831786531838722263) 2024-09-05T20:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@paras_biotech The 15% WL is their estimate of potential P3 results. Meaning about the same as Wegovy in an oral small molecule. The P2 is only 16w. I have not heard them guide for those studies. I expect 6-8% Lets see if they do a PR during next weeks EASD conference. Would make sense" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1832289581468614773) 2024-09-07T05:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$NVO highlighting Monlunabant shortly before P2 data readout. Now all focus on next week EASD conference. CB1r hammer time $CRBP Novo Nordisks CFO stated that his expectations of weight loss from Inversagos MONLUNABANT Ph2 is around 15% Data readout is in the next [--] weeks 🤞 would be a big seminal day for CB-1 class especially for safety side (not so much the GI but suicidal side) Novo Nordisks CFO stated that his expectations of weight loss from Inversagos MONLUNABANT Ph2 is around 15% Data readout is in the next [--] weeks 🤞 would be a big seminal day for CB-1 class especially for safety side" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1832292739318157422) 2024-09-07T05:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "this is a scientific conference and not investor conference. So would be surprised if any of those questions will be answered by $NVO next week. My take on some of the Q #2 at CMD24 $NVO stated they see the oral peptides go for high end oral segment. High price and not in big volumes. #4 the 100mg was highest dose in P1. We never see the highest P1 doses go all the way to the market. My guess is 25/50mg will be top dose. NVO can supply a few million patients per year (they currently supply about [---] million patients on Rybelsus - oral version of Ozempic/semaglutide) #5 $NVO already said their" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1832467465449750843) 2024-09-07T17:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Gustavo01585102 @Shrimpen1 Heres another company Adocia working on a gel for semaglutide. They aim to start clinical trials in a few years. The danish financial newspaper Brsen has asked $NVO for a comment. NVO replied that they do not work with the Adocia https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-09-semaglutide-hydrogel-diabetes-shots-month.html https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-09-semaglutide-hydrogel-diabetes-shots-month.html" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1832663208542208060) 2024-09-08T06:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Mufaso7 I would ad $NVO Monlunabant to your list of small molecule. We are waiting for P2 obesity data. Possible coming as early as next week" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1832732850329641237) 2024-09-08T10:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Im quite confident that Camurus does not have a collaboration with $nvo on semaglutide. We would have heard of it if that was the case. All those companies telling about preclinical semaglutide studies. They are telling for publicity purposes. IF they had a license deal with novo then $NVO most likely ban them from telling the world. Until P1 starts. We know NVO is testing at least [--] different tech platforms. The only one we know for sure is Nanexa and their PharmaShell" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1832757448823681460) 2024-09-08T12:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@GLP1_News Its only a game changer if it can be sold. And they dont have any deal or even collaboration with $NVO. $NVO is working with Swedish biotech Nanexa to make slow release versions for once monthly or even once every [--] months" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1832848314296877224) 2024-09-08T18:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Shrimpen1 @Gustavo01585102 No i have not more news than what has been said public. $NVO is focusing a lot on RNAi. So expect to see about [--] new in P1 each year" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1833143450247594127) 2024-09-09T14:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "That right. I believe $NVO is the only who currently run a P2 GLP1/GIP with Tirzepatide as an active comparator. NN0519-0130 is NVO GLP1/GIP. They already has a fully enrolled P2 obesity trial. It says primary completion 2024-11/25. However its a 36w trial so the only way we get to see first data this year is if they have included an interim 12/16w readout. https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06326060lastUpdPost=2024-08-01_&lead=Novo%20Nordisk%20A%2FS&aggFilters=status:act&rank=1" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1833210094361661774) 2024-09-09T18:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yes you me and everyone 🙂 Todays talk of side effects also confirms that biotech is difficult for laymen. Getting behind the numbers. Titration means everything in these shorter trials. I guess we will repeat it all again tomorrow when $NVO share more details from P1 with Amycretin. That was also a very steep titration. From 6mg to 100mg in [--] weeks" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1833234278445990384) 2024-09-09T20:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ASchulz888 @GilaMonstrum With Monlunabant Thats $NVO CB1 oral small molecule obesity. Its juuuust about to report two P2 week results. Targets about 15% WL in [--] weeks. For an oral easy and cheap to scale BIG https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1831745060993437952s=46 Now the second P2 protocol with Monlunabant (CB1r) has been updated. Primary Completion has been changed from estimated to actual. I think $NVO will make a PR at next weeks EASD with P2 obesity data with Monlunabant. I have bought more $CRBP https://t.co/5i7uvrvDJs https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1831745060993437952s=46 Now the" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1833255881493954830) 2024-09-09T21:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$NVO comment I Danish financial newspaper Borsen that they do not have any collaborations with Adocia. But $NVO is currently doing preclinical validation studies of Nanexa PharmaShell. Another technology to make slow release. Nanexa currently running a small P1 with once monthly victoza. First generation GLP1 from NVO Nanexa also have several mAb validation collaborations" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1833614585342964041) 2024-09-10T21:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yes. But we need lager trials for that. Thats also why they have said they will start P2b this year. And the study design is really interesting. They will have an active Wegovy comparator arm. And most likely also an arm with Monlunabant + Wegovy. THAT will be interesting to see In general NVO expects Monlunabant will reach 15% WL in [--] weeks. So what happens when you add Wegovy" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1833618549342077167) 2024-09-10T21:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@GilaMonstrum This is in line with expectations and the stock market react accordingly. When titration is forced in these shorter trials GI side effects increases. And that is easy to reduce with longer trials and titration" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1833868283126145128) 2024-09-11T14:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@GilaMonstrum I think the obesity space in general has had a period with pressure on share prices" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1833874366775296473) 2024-09-11T14:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$nvo was up more than 2% yesterday and is up with 3.25% as I write this comment. Seems like the market was pleased by Amycretin data shown yesterday. That investors could see behind the data. From low share of women in the trial and WL is lager with women than men. Meaning underlying increased WL than already reported. Also that the BMI was low compared with P3 patients groups. Also underlying increased WL. Also that investors could see what forced titration does and how easy it is to reduce the current publish side effects. Thats not to say Amycretin will be with really low side effects." [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1834165852179992953) 2024-09-12T09:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@onemodolar Oral Amycretin 100mg is not commercially feasible. That will never hit the market. Even 50mg is a stretch. Thats why oral peptides only will be a small but high end (expensive) market. Primarily for those who can pay out of pocket" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1834264108952084688) 2024-09-12T16:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Jul05310473John theres absolutely nothing hinting that $NVO is about to kill Amycretin. Its theres highest priority program and the P1 data was a blowout compared to all other [--] week oral data. The side effects profile look similar to semaglutide/CagriSema data when taking the forced titration in to consideration. The biggest value for Amycretin is not in oral but in SC. And we typically see better SC data than oral data. Its also in that light we should see the big share price move back at the CMD" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1834467457123176824) 2024-09-13T05:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@sneakview @semodough 100% agree Martin. We will see $NVO do a very aggressive clinical trial setup with Amycretin. Those indications semaglutide has been developed for over [--] years. We will see NVO start many of those trials starting from second half 2025" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1834555619992289482) 2024-09-13T11:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$NVO only start a clinical trial with oral if its their plan to go all the way to the market. All companies do preclinical PK studies so they have a pretty good idea of what will be the therapeutic doses. $NVO also public stated that they want to develop both SC and oral. They want to do combo trials with both like what the so right now in [---] patients T2D P2 trial. Also remember that especially in P1 you go high in doses to test boundaries. They are currently testing [--] other formulations in other P1. My guess is that they are testing for potential better oral bioavailability hence lower" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1834854774618861776) 2024-09-14T07:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$NVO in general said oral obesity peptides will be for a smal high end (read expensive) pay out of pocket segment. For exactly that reason you mention. Its not scalable to dose tens of millions patients. NVO currently supplies about [---] million patients on Rybelsus. The oral peptide version of Ozempic. Last year they got positive P3 with 50mg Rybelsus in obesity. 17% WL. But official we havent been told if they have applied FDA/EMA yet. Only 25/50mg T2D in EU My own guess is they hold obesity indication back until they have the results for the [--] large P3 with Rybelsus in Alzheimers. IF those" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1834859434515771743) 2024-09-14T07:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PCM_bio $MRK has public said they are looking for small molecules. That rules $VKTX out. Could they walk back of that. Sure. Anything is possible. But the likelihood is most likely in the low end. Its two VERY different directions and impact on the whole supply chain" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1834912452061897054) 2024-09-14T11:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Hes confirming the overall talk about high amount oral peptide is a challenge. Even though novo will go for lower commercial dose than 100mg then its still a huge amount. How vk2735 will stack up as once weekly is definitely interesting to see. But its also a big question mark at this point in time. Vk2735 has a half life about 50% longer than semaglutide (Wegovy). And oral semaglutide (Rybelsus) is taken every day. I think we will see more combination treatments down the road. Patients starting on high effective SC and when they hit a plateau and are still obese then they will ad a small" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1835214263167660514) 2024-09-15T07:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "As I mentioned theres a HUUUUGH difference in going for small molecules vs peptides. Its not a decision you quickly arrive at. I dont know $MRK management including R&D management. But some companies prioritise to go for novel first in class targets/drugs over going for potential best in class among many others same target. As a shareholder in $VKTX I would welcome any BP wanting to buy VKTX. But I would place the likelihood of a $MRK takeover below 10%" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1835261555526500369) 2024-09-15T10:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Sports_bios @john_bresnahan $NVO had a GDF-15 in P1 back in 21/22. They closed it after P1. Not because safety but because it didnt have a good enough effect compared to other internal obesity programs" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1835685187696431399) 2024-09-16T14:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@SenSanders witness spoils 58% of his arguments. 27:40 Dale Folwell Treasurer of the State of North Carolina tell that they had [------] on Wegovy and that would cost the state $170 million per year. Well $170 million/23.000/13(13 scripts = [--] year) that gives a price on $569 per script vs a Wegovy list price at $1349. Thats a 58% rebate on the list price. On top of that Bernie Sanders also manipulate with the European Wegovy prices. In all other countries than US Wegovy price increase with the dose. For instance in Denmark 2.4mg wegovy cost about $345. And thats 100% out of pocket. So NO. US" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1836157497289150897) 2024-09-17T21:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@seedy19tron No $NVO has very clearly said the obesity P2 will report her in Q3. And that the program is of such importance that it will get its ownPR and not Waite until Q3 report" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1836877252811755571) 2024-09-19T21:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I fail to see how this makes I harder to trust what BP mgmt says about obesity drugs and plans Developing new medicines is not exactly easy. Most meds fail. And $NVO already showed they kill their darlings if data does not support spending more time and money on it https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1838174209761047008s=46 https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1838174209761047008s=46" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1838184825452151187) 2024-09-23T11:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@semodough Also big jump and new record for Wegovy. [------] vs former record at 212300" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1838199737788289096) 2024-09-23T12:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@bioinvestor24 May I suggest you read the PR again" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1838638581029458326) 2024-09-24T17:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MikeSmith_10X @MichaelAlbertMD Compounded Its the official price https://www.australianpharmacist.com.au/what-impact-will-wegovy-have-on-the-obesity-epidemic/ https://www.australianpharmacist.com.au/what-impact-will-wegovy-have-on-the-obesity-epidemic/" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1839058016059937070) 2024-09-25T21:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Thats not going to happen. That $NVO buys $VKTX. Besides CagriSema they have Amycretin. The current best oral WL and where we will see SC data in Q1. SC typically higher WL than oral. And oral was 12% in 12w Likely start P3 end [----]. About [--] months after vk2735 P3 start. But NVO will start multiple large P3 and P2b within short time of first P3. Then NVO also has a GLP1/GIP in two P2b. Obesity and T2D. Both studies with an active 15mg Tirzepatide arm. We more or less never see that happen in P2b studies since thats an extra high risk to ad already in P2. That also means NVO feels confident." [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1839699545963282907) 2024-09-27T16:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@bioinvestor24 How lucky $NVO will have 36w Amycretin data next year from [---] patients P2 trial" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1839733042602225973) 2024-09-27T18:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$NVO is actually chasing external R&D. Its a specific priority. They have done +10 larger R&D deals since [----]. But NVO prefers to do research deals with up to [--] targets per deal. They have also done few BO with assets in clinical. But also here they prefer early stage assets. They want to be able to help form the P2/3 clinical protocols and directions. Thereby add value to the meds" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1839736823993532590) 2024-09-27T18:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "I already gave you the info so you can look it up. I could not mention the two P2b trials without having seen the protocols etc. it was you who started this thread without actually having spend any time looking at NVO obesity pipeline. I am long in BOTH $vktx and $nvo. So no Im not constantly attacking VKTX. Im trying to ad nuances and broadening the scope of the biotech/BP" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1839973697437737122) 2024-09-28T10:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I have not seen the actual JPM not where they flag a potential Q3 miss from $NVO. Im definitely curious to read it. But any potential miss is not because lag of pull from the market. Actual the pull have never been larger than now. So if they miss Q3 then its supply chain constraints. I would be very surprised if the net price for Wegovy would be lower than implied in Q2 (hit by recalculating [----] rebates ) Both $NVO and $LLY can easily sell every single GLP1 dose they can produce. And we will also see [----] be hit by larger market pull than what the supply chain can deliver. It is extremely" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1839989058300162271) 2024-09-28T11:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$ROG has [--] obesity meds in their clinical pipeline" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1840784390642627040) 2024-09-30T16:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ASchulz888 @0xPasserby $NVO also has both pure semaglutid trial and semaglutid + FGF21 trial data comming" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1841127093901377696) 2024-10-01T14:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Thats already possible with Ozempic and oral Rybelsus (oral Ozempic) I havent heard of any connection between Ozempic vs Rybelsus patients. Those who choose oral does it mainly because they dont like needles. I believe that will be the overall reason to use an oral peptide. Afraid of needles" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1842229320455954502) 2024-10-04T15:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yes in US its about 1:10 between Rybelsus vs Ozempic (TRx [------] vs TRx 590.000) But global its about [---] million patients per month. In general oral peptides will probably mainly be a luxury product with higher prices than SC versions. Also because the supply constraints with oral peptides" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1842234395513512088) 2024-10-04T16:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@fluffer9 @semodough Nobody knows 🙂since theres no data yet to support that" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1842236019640246562) 2024-10-04T16:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yes so are Ozempic/wegovy vs Rybelsus. And Amycretin is being developed the same way with SC and oral. You mentioned yourself that SC typical gives better effect than oral. So why go from SC to less effective oral in maintenance Then you will just gain weight faster than continuing your SC dose. Wegovy [---] is called maintenance dose. I know that $vktx has mentioned the oral maintenance possibility. I just dont see what the patient will benefit from that move. But those who are afraid of needles they will start in the oral even though that SC weight be more effective. And yes $VKTX is still my" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1842272105468973492) 2024-10-04T18:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$LLY take a licensdeal on Danish Nordic Bioscience P2 ready Amylin in obesity and other indications. $1.4B milestones and royalties from 5% to "low" double digit (my guess is 12-15%) This is the first time we see real value on amylin molecules through a partner deal. (LLY actual also did another deal back in [----] but that was long before obesity and amylin became hot) This should reflect positive on especially $zeal and $Gubra whom both have amylin i P1 (ZP soon P2) And especially on $Gubra since their Mcap is only about $1.1B $Gubra will present P1a data on their amylin #GUBamylin end of" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1844383644330361206) 2024-10-10T14:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Agree though I would broaden it to say this is why $LLY and $NVO will keep holding 80% of the TAM. No other BP have the capacity and/or dare to invest THAT kind of money upfront before the first approval and revenue. Other BP will slow walk the development and investment in supply chain" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1845551930552312195) 2024-10-13T19:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Currently theres about [------] active Americans wegovy users. NVO supplies all what they produce yet many cannot get their hands on it" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1845726916256362626) 2024-10-14T07:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "In Denmark we get official wegovy sale each month. Last week the august numbers got published. After a flat summer we are back to further increase again. From last record at 1.45% to now 1.51% Denmark is interesting since its 100% out of pocket ($340 for 2.4mg wegovy) and theres no shortages. So it shows the real pull from the market at this specific price. When looking at the Danish vs US numbers its also important to know the bigger context. In Denmark 18% of the population is obese BMI30 vs [----] in US" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1845727858959769967) 2024-10-14T07:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@semodough [--] New records for $LLY. [------] for Mounjaro and [------] for Zepbound and no new records for Ozempic and Zepbound. So this was a great week for LLy" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1845879467203252257) 2024-10-14T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@BigRedAzure About $340 for 2.4mg Wegovy" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1846073267292983528) 2024-10-15T06:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$NVO hiring VP for launching Semaglutide in Alzheimers. $NVO currently runs two large (2x1840 patients) P3 AD trials with Rybelsus. The oral version of Ozempic/wegovy. They will report data in about [--] months. But $NVO is pushing ahead and preparing a potential launch in [----]. IF and its still a big IF semaglutide/Rybelsus really slow down progression of AD then it would be no less than a game changer. Nothing really helps AD patients. I think $NVO is holding back on filing for oral Wegovy (the already have finished P3 with 17% WL) because of the AD indication. They want to make sure they can" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1846960950353842303) 2024-10-17T17:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Ahh ok now I follow. We cant just read any other trial data into vk2735. Some of it is MoA and other is about the molecule itself. And AD is definitely in the HIGH risk end of potential other indications. Not even $LLY has initiated AD trials with GLP. So IF Rybelsus ends with significants then $NVO will have that market for them self 4+ years" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1846982858453164180) 2024-10-17T18:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yes. And thats also my fear. That 14mg just miss p-0.05 and that 25/50 then could hit that significants. $NVO actually just revealed a new P1 where they test [--] new formulations of Rybelsus. Going for higher bioavailability. By the way Im not sure NVO has filed FDA yet for the new [--]. Generation Rybelsus that was recently approved in EU. With 1.5mg 4mg and 9mg doses (instead of 3mg 7mg and 14mg)" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1846984477047722373) 2024-10-17T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$ROG has now startet two P2 studies with CT-388. One in T2D and one obesity trial. Both trials is 48w with 360/450 patients in each testing 4/5 doses (Mounjaro [--] doses) T2D trial expect to conclude medio [----] and the obesity trial Q1 [----]. That means potential P3 obesity trial could start 2nd half [----] $VKTX $LLY $NVO #GLP1 #obesity https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06525935term=CT-388&rank=2 https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06628362cond=Obesity&lastUpdPost=2024-06-30_&aggFilters=phase:2status:rec&sort=StudyFirstPostDate&rank=2" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1848004638609412108) 2024-10-20T14:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Oral peptide Rybelsus (oral Ozempic) hits significant reductions in MACE. [----] patients followed 3-5 year. No other oral peptide can report similar P3 data in this decade. In [----] people with #T2D in the SOUL CVOT subjects treated with oral semaglutide had a 14% reduction in MACE #CVD #heartdisease Up to 49% of patients received SGLT2i at some point during the trial https://t.co/RoDo65ymyx https://t.co/QOhO43xSll In [----] people with #T2D in the SOUL CVOT subjects treated with oral semaglutide had a 14% reduction in MACE #CVD #heartdisease Up to 49% of patients received SGLT2i at some point" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1848410986501574788) 2024-10-21T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$VKTX cant run such trials them self. $NVO have spend about $1.5B on those two (SC and Oral) trials. Thats the biggest issue with VKTX going in to P3 without a partner. They cant start multiple large P3 trials in several indications before they have P3 results in obesity and T2D. But with a BP on board then the whole P3 program will be more aggressive" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1848412963255759048) 2024-10-21T17:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This was only with 14mg dose. With 50mg Rybelsus it more or less hit the same WL effects as 2.4mg Wegovy. That would probably also bring the MACE close to the Select data. But 50mg Rybelsus takes 145x the amount as 2.4mg Wegovy This is why oral peptides is fare from being scaled to truly mass market with +10 million patients" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1848456945868390750) 2024-10-21T20:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$NVO has [--] Amylin in development two of them are combo GLP1. #Cagrisema will report two P3 obesity and T2D within the next [--] months. Amycretin is in P1/2 and could potentially start P3 second half [----] And then they have a pure play Amylin in P1 $LLY also has [--] Amylin in P1 and P2 Astra zeneca has one Amylin in P2 Then theres $Zeal that you visit. Theres is about to start P2 $GUBRA also has an Amylin in P1. If youre a BP and want to get your hands on an Amylin already in clinical development then theres only $zeal and $Gubra. Then" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1849102267300933878) 2024-10-23T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Did $NVO just reveal they are getting thumbs up to buy Catalent Everyone in the obesity space is following closely what FTC will decide on the potential $NVO buying of Catalents [--] Fill/Finish factories. Theres a lot of pushback from both Americans politicians and other BP like $LLY and $ROG. The latter is just competitors teasing. But now $NVO har posted a new job position that reveals they are opening a new department which sole responsibility is to You will be part of AM Brownfield Site Integration a newly established unit in Product Supply Aseptic Manufacturing (PS AM). The unit aims to" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1849141019192758617) 2024-10-23T17:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@GilaMonstrum How does DACRA reduce the amount of API needed" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1849484489036075500) 2024-10-24T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Yes but youre still adding an extra molecule hence more API. $NVO has CagriSema. Two molecules (semaglutide GLP1 + cagrilintid Amylin) 2.4mg +2.4mg SC Then NVO have the new molecule Amycretin which is ONE molecule hitting both GLP1 and DARCA. Amycretin has been tested up to 100mg oral. Rybelsus is tested up to 50mg. (Equal 2.4mg semaglutide). cagrilintid has not been developed oral. But its same dose as semaglutide. So all in all its exactly the same amount of API for Amycretin vs CagriSema. No reduction API Yes NVO might chose to do P3 dose slightly below 100mg. But all in all it looked very" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1849488279009181978) 2024-10-24T16:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Correct GLP1/GIP has yet to be combined with an Amylin. But LLY has already said they will. And they have [--] Amylin in P2 to pick from. Also expect $NVO to start such combo trial end 25/primo [--]. So $VKTX will most likely be the third company to do it. On less some BP buys $zeal or $GUBRA Amylin. Then such company might also do it" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1849496592165822635) 2024-10-24T17:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ManOfSteelixx @onemodolar @A_May_MD @riddle245 BL just said 20/80%. That fits perfectly with the whole oral peptide saga. An also with what we see from $NVO regarding SC Ozempic vs oral Rybelsus. Theres not at big move. Those who start with Rybelsus is typically those who are afraid of needles" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1849740916967219685) 2024-10-25T09:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Marc the comparison is 1mg Ozempic (most T2D patients use that dose) compared with 14mg Rybelsus is the apple to apple comparison. So we have access to real time data and not just an estimate what [----] split would look like in [----] BL har now confirmed the bare for oral peptides with the current oral technology that only gives an bioavailability at 1-2%" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1849743161419022457) 2024-10-25T09:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "In US the current max Rybelsus is 14mg per day. In Europe [--]. Gen Rybelsus is launched with max 9mg. But it has the same effect as the old 14mg since they have improved the bioavailability of Rybelsus. NVO also have finalised several P3 studies with up to 50mg Rybelsus. They could already be on the marked. But 50mg then you start to use a LOT of API. And therefore novo have not launched that dose yet. It might come in 25/26 where novo get many tons extra peptide API capacity" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1849744982359298135) 2024-10-25T09:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Good catch with the LLY combo trial. I had not seen that. And its actually already [--] combo trials they have started. However Eloralintide is pure play Amylin and not DARCA This whole DACRA name target is new to the market. Its more or less the Danish Nordic Biosciences that started calling it that. Then LLY did a license deal with them in [----] and LLY started using DACRA. But up until a few months ago all other was just calling it Amylin. Even $NVO who has CagriSema/cagrilintide in P3 just call it Amylin. cagrilintide is an agonist of both amylin and Calcitonin So DACRA is new naming to the" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1850220503820034111) 2024-10-26T16:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "They will not go straight to P3. They need to do P1B/P2 first. Thats also the model they used for CagriSema. But Im just speculating. $NVO has not said anything in that regard. In general we will see both LLy and NVO take way more risk with newer pipeline assets. Moving fast also to quickly kill your darlings. They can move faster than all others because they already have a TON of data to crunch and they already have their huge cash cows" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1850253279445303615) 2024-10-26T19:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Thanks @cigs1234 $NVO has two very important milestones the coming weeks. And a lot depends on how those materialise. CagriSema and Catalent. But NVO has indirectly guided the marked to +$100B revenue in [----]. From $35B last year Regarding VKTX and a potential 10xbagger. If they are bought within the next 6-9 months (prior to P3 start) then its below 100% higher than now. But Im also ready for a 50% bid next week" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1850256378234868017) 2024-10-26T19:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@GilaMonstrum @A_May_MD @semodough LLY and NVO goes for both. Regarding LLY then they have other P1 where they specifically names it DACRA. Thats also the $1.4B deal they made two weeks ago. So they go for both equal balancing and high affinity for Amylin vs calcitonin like the patents you found" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1850262056467071199) 2024-10-26T19:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Yes thats the one. We have almost no public data so makes no sense to scrutinise it. But NVO did apparently see enough to start two high risk 36W P2 studies including an arm with tirzepatide. And [--] other studies. So an aggressive development where they get a fast go/no go in q2/3 [----]. Kill it or P3" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1850469900189393110) 2024-10-27T09:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@bioinvestor24 @A_May_MD @semodough Where do we know LLY concretely made a BO offer from To me it makes no sense for either LLY or NVO to make BO to mcap like VKTX has now. I dont think either of them will make any BO of assets in P2/3. They will do preclinical and P1" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1850484659731284235) 2024-10-27T10:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@GilaMonstrum @A_May_MD @semodough Yes NB is known for working within this space the last [--] years. Together with NVO they have the largest amount of data knowledge in the Amylin space. $Zeal also worked many years on Amylin" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1850514407240950118) 2024-10-27T12:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Another record for Zebound. [------] vs former record at [------] Mounjaro at [------] (record 425800) Wegovy was [------] (record at 226600) Ozempic was [------] (record 594900) At least in US $NVO is currently lacking the needed accelerated growth. Although the rest of the world might accelerate further with new launches $LLY Mounjaro TRx/NRx scripts for the week of 10/18/2024 were 413300/217800 (vs. 418400/220300 last week) per IQVIA data. Zepbound TRx/NRx scripts were 175800/128100 (vs. 174200/127600 last week). $LLY Mounjaro TRx/NRx scripts for the week of 10/18/2024 were 413300/217800 (vs." [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1850910125151993910) 2024-10-28T14:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "It objectively difficult to see the reasons for $LLY up with 53% this year versus $NVO 11%. NVO definitely hit a miss with Monlunabant. And LLY currently expanding their GLP1 portfolio faster than NVO. But NVO is still the largest of them. NVO is though higher risk currently since they will report first P3 with CagriSema and FTC judgment of Catalent deal. Depending on the direction of those two event we could see the share price move plus 10%" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1850916326576951725) 2024-10-28T15:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Sports_bios Interesting with an oral small molecule GIP Antagonist. Thats definitely a first in class. And with Maritide data in mind then this asset all the suddenly becomes quite interesting to see data" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1851305895432745456) 2024-10-29T16:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "And now it begins. #Wegovy is now listed as available in all doses at FDA site. $NVO pressuring the compounding companies https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/drugshortages/dsp_ActiveIngredientDetails.cfmAI=Semaglutide%20Injection&st=c https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/drugshortages/dsp_ActiveIngredientDetails.cfmAI=Semaglutide%20Injection&st=c" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1851642845599260799) 2024-10-30T15:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ""While all doses of Wegovy and Ozempic are now listed as available they have not been removed from the regulator's shortage list."" [X Link](https://x.com/ResearchPulse1/status/1851643160092352848) 2024-10-30T15:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$NVO p3 MASH with Wegovy. Not exactly killer data but still significant and yet another indication to put on their label https://t.co/089W97jcdv Novo Nordisk A/S: Semaglutide [---] mg demonstrates superior improvement in both liver fibrosis and MASH resolution in the ESSENCE trial @NovoNordiskES https://t.co/gO4Bc815u3 https://t.co/089W97jcdv Novo Nordisk A/S: Semaglutide [---] mg demonstrates superior improvement in both liver fibrosis and MASH resolution in the ESSENCE trial @NovoNordiskES https://t.co/gO4Bc815u3" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1852355254567760230) 2024-11-01T14:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@bioinvestor24 Well there IS an oral peptide API challenges. LLY does not have any oral peptide at the market. Only $NVO has #Rybelsus Theres a reason BL just mentioned oral VK2735 is only about 20% of the total value. You simply cant scale BIG" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1852657656562847910) 2024-11-02T10:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "We dont have to agree 🙂 But BL comments fits perfectly with the API challenge. If he didnt se any API challenges he would have put the value of oral way higher. $NVO is using 4-5 tons to serve about [---] million on oral Rybelsus. With top dose of 9/14mg. Commercial oral VK2735 will be above 100mg per day to match 15mg SC [----]. That would take 40-50 tons to serve the same amount of people. The half life is longer than semaglutide. But only 50% ish. So going from once daily to once weekly will likely minimise the weight gain compared to hard stop dosing. To my knowledge the current largest CDMO" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1852737789533565067) 2024-11-02T15:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yes GZR18 is definitely one of the interesting to follow. Its the first GLP1/GIP to deliver infrequent dosing data. Very interesting to see the side effects And also important to remember this is China trial. China use lower BMI to define obesity. So it would most likely reach a bit bigger WL in a US/Europe trial with higher average BMI trial participants" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1852995744988377445) 2024-11-03T08:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Youre absolutely right. As mono GLP1 GZR18 is anything but potent when they dose up to 30mg. So thats their downside regarding demand for API. But definitely looks like more effective than semaglutide On the other hand HRS9531 is very potent with only 6mg top dosing vs 15mg for Tirzepatide and vk2735" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1853127025579708416) 2024-11-03T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "As I have mentioned before Im LONG in $vktx. Its not even possible to short VKTX at the trading platform I use. What does $NVO CagriSema and Amycretin has to do with oral [----] data And what is insulting in this post. I dont know about you but Im always constructive critical to my investment. You (I) always has to be able to argument both sides. Otherwise you (I) have blind spots" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1853850182120530203) 2024-11-05T17:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$NVO developing a once monthly version of semaglutide $NVO made a deal with Ascendis this Monday. A deal where novo gets access to Ascendis technology to make a prolonged release of API and thereby only dose once per month and up to once per [--] month. The lead program is a once monthly version of semaglutide. Novo will not say how fare it is in development. But Im fairly sure that its just about to start the final preclinical ADME tox studies before starting P1. That would meanP1 end of [----]. Novo can then choose [--] development directions. 1) A short program where they go for non-inferiority vs" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1854130169247674677) 2024-11-06T11:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$NVO released Q3 with big surprise on larger wegovy sales than what analyst expected. The market expected 15.9B Danish kroner($2.3B) vs actual 17.3B kroner ($2.5B) $NVO developing a once monthly version of semaglutide $NVO made a deal with Ascendis this Monday. A deal where novo gets access to Ascendis technology to make a prolonged release of API and thereby only dose once per month and up to once per [--] month. The lead program is a $NVO developing a once monthly version of semaglutide $NVO made a deal with Ascendis this Monday. A deal where novo gets access to Ascendis technology to make a" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1854131144800792749) 2024-11-06T11:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Misplaced comment on [----] "guidens" They dont guide before feb [----] when they release [----] result. And yet the CFO answered a Q about some insight to [----] capacity/guidance. And he did an odd comparison to the actual ekstra volume/revenue in [----] and expected in [----]. And if [----] would grow with the same extra volume increase then it would implied a growth in the "high teens". Thats what made the floor disappear on the share price. They will grow significant more than high teens next year. Higher growth than in [----] (midpoint 25%)" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1854154238785425585) 2024-11-06T13:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$NVO need Q4 wegovy sales to jump more than $1B. close to $4B in Q4 A different story in obesity from Novo Nordisk today with Wegovy Q3 sales beating expectations vs Lilly's miss last week. $NVO $LLY https://t.co/KAAjz5rRnl A different story in obesity from Novo Nordisk today with Wegovy Q3 sales beating expectations vs Lilly's miss last week. $NVO $LLY https://t.co/KAAjz5rRnl" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1854162506828103760) 2024-11-06T14:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MichelleCardel @ObesitySociety $NVO has to my knowledge not filed for 25/50mg obesity in US. Only for T2D in EU. So for some reasons they hold 25/50mg Rybelsus back in US" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1854479439964274736) 2024-11-07T11:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Q4 numbers for Wegovy will be up more than 100% vs Q4 [----]. Might cross $3B Both $LLY and $NVO is spending big time on building new supply chain capacity. Both companies have initiated capacity expansions for more than $20B since [----]. If NVO gets thumbs up from FTC to buy Catalent then they have invested more than $20B in less than two years. Dont expect NVO to get aggressive in M&A. Its not in their DNA to buy big late stage companies" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1854611973779939581) 2024-11-07T19:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The ovner of $NVO is novo holding. They have more than $160B investments in more than [---] companies. So lots of money flow back to investments in early stage biotech and other areas Novo Holdings closed [----] with Total Assets under Management of DKK [----] billion (149 billion) up from DKK [---] billion (108 billion) in [----]. The Novo Holdings Investment Portfolio comprises Life Science Investments (Seed Investments Venture Investments Planetary Health Investments Asia Investments Growth Investments and Principal Investments) making up 51% of the portfolio and Capital Investments 49% of the" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1854630522959675755) 2024-11-07T21:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ImmaWexler @yaireinhorn @WSJ @NovoNordiskLive @EliLillyandCo They are getting there. In Q3 semaglutide (Ozempic Wegovy and Rybelsus) sold for about $7.8B" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1854637378914468003) 2024-11-07T21:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Thats just the small public available AI computer. $NVO is most likely going to have an in-house AI 10x of that one. But they have also invested more than $2B in developing a quantum computer. As well as $200 million investment in small quantum computer startups https://nqcp.ku.dk/news/ https://nqcp.ku.dk/news/" [X Link](https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1854651598510625016) 2024-11-07T22:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@KNielsen2000 Kim Nielsen
Kim Nielsen posts on X about $nvo, $lly, $vktx, $zeal the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-------] -33%
- [--] Month [---------] +76%
- [--] Months [---------] +546%
- [--] Year [---------] +909%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [---] -32%
- [--] Months [---] +196%
- [--] Year [-----] +152%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +3.80%
- [--] Month [-----] +41%
- [--] Months [-----] +158%
- [--] Year [-----] +317%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks finance countries currencies cryptocurrencies automotive brands travel destinations technology brands social networks us election
Social topic influence $nvo #8, $lly #5, $vktx #2, $zeal, $gubra, data, in the, wegovy, ceo #1785, $mtsr
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @bioinvestor24 @jcannush @gilamonstrum @semodough @investseekers @manonthepen @amaymd @aschulz888 @meadowcapital @cigs1234 @paulcerro @jul05310473john @doctorsalomon @doepkemichel @jq1234t @rnflex @kontrainvest @yaireinhorn @applehelix @novonordisk
Top assets mentioned Novo-Nordisk (NVO) Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Viking Therapeutics, Inc (VKTX) Metsera, Inc. (MTSR) Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) Pfizer, Inc. (PFE) GLP1 (GLP1) Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) AbbVie Inc (ABBV) CVS Health Corp (CVS) Akropolis (AKRO) Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) BioAge Labs, Inc. (BIOA) DOSE (DOSE) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@Jul05310473John Comparing results from different clinical trials can be difficult. And yet we all do it. Comparing preclinical data is even more difficult. However we have preclinical data from DIO trials"
X Link 2024-06-05T13:22Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@ASchulz888 1) Great post with well-thought arguments. Regarding Merck I dont see any strengthen negotiating position for them by mention that their focus is oral small molecule meds. Merck would only be in a strengthen Position if no other companies want to talk with VKTX about VK2735"
X Link 2024-06-16T11:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@yaireinhorn @Stifel @novonordisk @BowTiedBiotech Those $70bn is not just for obesity. If its strictly obesity that number was $6bn last year. That will grow to about $15bn this year"
X Link 2024-06-17T20:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@semodough Gzr18 is actually quite good results. Its in low body weight as all Chinese trials. Wegovy and Zepbound is about 5% lower in Chinese populations vs US/EU. Gzr18 reach better weight loss in [--] weeks than Zepbound in [--] weeks Chinese trial"
X Link 2024-06-23T19:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@MWM76 $lly and $nvo already have a very rich pipeline of new AOM. So count them out of the herd of companies that would either license VK2735 or make a BO"
X Link 2024-06-24T22:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@ASchulz888 @MWM76 As mentioned $LLY already have a very rich obesity pipeline. So they would not spend that kind of money on $vktx"
X Link 2024-06-24T22:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@doepke_michel @semodough $LLY also has [--] Amylin in phase [--] and [--]. $nvo will enter yet another Amylin in [--]. Half [--]. This one a mono Amylin"
X Link 2024-06-25T16:17Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@doepke_michel Yes. CagriSema phase [--] readout nov/dec [--]. Also 72mg high dose Wegovy phase [--] readout in q4 [--] And in July phase [--] obesity data on INV-202. New real small molecule"
X Link 2024-06-26T14:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@crypto_biotech Why is VK2735 the easiest to make a pill compared to other SC 15mg per week Oral 60mg day 420mg per week [----] oral 28x API vs SC Wegovy SC 2.4mg week Oral Rybelsus 9mg(new more potent vs current 14mg) Oral 26.5x API vs 2.4mg Wegovy So both oral very challenging to scale"
X Link 2024-06-29T18:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@semodough Thanks for sharing. Do you know if IQVIA data for the week 21/6 is with a closing day for Juneteenth National Independence Day Mounjaro Ozempic and Wegovy numbers are crazy if that is with only [--] opening days"
X Link 2024-07-01T15:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@ASchulz888 @jimcramer Wait what. That cant be real. FDA approve competing drugs all the time $LLY and $vktx is to very different investment cases. At lot of those who invest in LLY doesnt want the much higher risk in VKTX. And visa versa. Biotech investors seek the higher risk/reward"
X Link 2024-07-02T15:47Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@Vera_Icona_23 @MartyChargin Limited capex. $nvo has announced capex investments above $20B within the last [--] month. $6-8B to produce more API. Its not API thats the main bottleneck. Thats lack of pen/auto-injector and fill/finish capacity"
X Link 2024-07-02T17:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@ASchulz888 @jimcramer And then the completely false way to compare US prices with European prices. Comparing US list prices with lowest doses in Europe. In US its the same price regardless of dose. In Europe the price for 2.4mg Wegovy is about 75% higher than start doses. So about $300-350 for 2.4"
X Link 2024-07-02T21:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$nvo starts more phase [--] with Amycretin. See their phase [--] program at CT NNC0487-0111 Close to [---] P and up to 32w data ready jan [--]. Testing higher doses and new formulations. Better bioavailability $nvo shooting for phase [--] mid [--]. But will FDA let them What do you think"
X Link 2024-07-03T06:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@andrei_hamza I disagree with the shady part. This is how Big Pharma almost always do with early data. They dont need to advertise like biotech who need a partner to take it further. Also see my new post. New Amycretin data is on the doorstep"
X Link 2024-07-07T17:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@andrei_hamza That was at their CMD which they only do every other year. So its normal that they open a bit more from the labs than what they do otherwise. They also gave a glimpse of their GLP1/GIP which now is in P2 H2H with Mounjaro/Zepbound"
X Link 2024-07-07T19:31Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@andrei_hamza By the way theres a whole session about "he promise of GIP and GIPR antagonism: bridging the gap" https://cattendee.abstractsonline.com/meeting/20620/Session/649 https://cattendee.abstractsonline.com/meeting/20620/Session/649"
X Link 2024-07-07T19:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"1) 145% of the Danish population is now on Wegovy Try to scale that to US and EU The official sales numbers for May were released today. [------] Danes equal 1.45% of the total population AND for the [--]. Month in row the numbers increased with [---] thousand of the population $nvo"
X Link 2024-07-08T18:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"2) Denmark is interesting since its 100% out of pocket AND that together with Norway the only two countries with NO restrictions on supply. Meaning we here see the actual pull from the market. No backorders"
X Link 2024-07-08T18:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"3) If we scale Danish numbers to US/EU it will look like this 1.45% of US is [----] mill P 1.45% of EU is [---] mill P [----] mill with current net prices is about $50.5B About [-------] Americans are currently on wegovy and about [-------] on Zepbound"
X Link 2024-07-08T18:46Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Kevin_M_Biotech $nvo has [--] oral clinical assets. Is there anyone that has more 50mg Rybelsus. Same WL as Wegovy [---]. P3 data out Amycretin 13.1% WL in 12W Inv-202 small molecule CBr1 will report two P2 in the coming W Inv-347 p1 data early 25"
X Link 2024-07-09T05:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@MattBiotech @Jul05310473John Its a bit funny that another CEO talks more positive about inv-202 than what the owner $NVO does Novo says about 15% and not up to 19% Regarding side effects its not the GI that in focus. Its the psychiatric side effects of depression and anxiety that the potential pitfall"
X Link 2024-07-09T16:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@MattBiotech @Jul05310473John And seems that $nvo wants to make a big phase 2b before moving to P3. They want to see more data side effects data"
X Link 2024-07-09T16:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@down_dogdiv @Pharmdca @andrei_hamza $nvo already have a rich obesity pipeline including a GLP1/GIP in two H2H P2b trials with Mounjaro/zepbound. And their main focus with new obesity programs is new targets and new modalities"
X Link 2024-07-09T17:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@ASchulz888 When listening to AMG CC its not like they have a lot of love for GIP agonist as mechanism. I believe AMG has the most awaited readout this year. Even though CagriSema arguably is the readout with the most financial impact. Maritide is the biggest joker on the market"
X Link 2024-07-09T19:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@ASchulz888 @andrei_hamza Its not uncommon to see some BP seeking new targets/modalities and not following in others footsteps. To me the two companies Im most sure will NOT BO vktx thats PPE and MRK"
X Link 2024-07-09T19:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Kevin_M_Biotech @ASchulz888 $nvo is 110% anything than a potential buyer of $vktx Together with LLY they already have a rich obesity pipeline including their own GLP1/GIP in two P2B trials H2H against Mounjaro/Zepbound On top of that NVO has no history with buying $10B. Largest $3B tech platform"
X Link 2024-07-09T21:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Kevin_M_Biotech @Pharmdca $nvo already last year reported from [--] big hart trials and Wegovy have received label expansion from FDA. So for that part its $LLY that catching up"
X Link 2024-07-10T16:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@BertrandBio $nvo CagriSema valued as the drug in clinical development that has the highest value. And CagriSema as the top sales obesity med in 2030"
X Link 2024-07-10T16:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@semodough IF semaglutide ends with significant AD data. its another blowout. And its only with the 14mg dose and not the 25/50mg $NVO tested in obesity. Also Rybelsus will substantially undercut $LLY prices for AD medicine"
X Link 2024-07-11T09:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@semodough I believe the AD trials is the reason $NVO has not launched 25/50mg Rybelsus. The want to make sure they have enough API to potential supply a huge AD market"
X Link 2024-07-11T09:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@sneakview @DanielJDrucker @EMA_News @novonordiskus @US_FDA This will also impact Wegovy/ozempic scaling. ICodec will reduce numbers of pens and fillings"
X Link 2024-07-11T17:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Kevin_M_Biotech @CloisterRes $nvo has the broadest oral pipeline in the industry. All the way from filing ready to small molecules and the by far best oral WL seen so up until today"
X Link 2024-07-13T19:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@semodough $nvo use extensive obesity research into +4 weeks SC and plus 1w oral obesity meds. They already have a once month GLP1/GIP in P1 as well as oral once per week in P1. And MAYBE a once per month oral in P1 inv347"
X Link 2024-07-13T23:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@semodough Thanx for sharing. Do you also have their slide where they show TRX for Trulicity Mounjaro Zepbound Ozempic and Wegovy"
X Link 2024-07-15T14:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Leo09416981 @jq1234t Yes thats why oral peptides never will scale BIG. $nvo also has done P3 with 50mg Rybelsus They have a new generation SNAC coming out soon. So the amount of API will be reduced"
X Link 2024-07-15T15:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@BiotechObserver @semodough @DewDiligence It actually is an important difference between small molecules vs peptide. Oral peptide scales poorly. Just ask $nvo and their Rybelsus. The oral version of Ozempic/wegovy (only approved in T2D)"
X Link 2024-07-17T21:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@BiotechObserver @iowajustin @0xPasserby @semodough @DewDiligence You are using T2D results. The pure obesity trial showed the same WL as Wegovy [---] https://www.novonordisk.com/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.htmlid=166110 https://www.novonordisk.com/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.htmlid=166110"
X Link 2024-07-18T07:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@BiotechObserver @iowajustin @0xPasserby @semodough @DewDiligence Correct theres definitely not the same demand for the weaker 14mg Rybelsus vs Wegovy. But that would change if they got 50mg approved in obesity. However to my understanding they have not even filed it. And thats because it scales poorly"
X Link 2024-07-18T07:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@iowajustin @BiotechObserver @0xPasserby @semodough @DewDiligence Rybelsus (and all peptides) scale poorly as oral. It takes 41x amount of API [--] dose [--] person for a year with Rybelsus vs Wegovy. About 1.2million use Rybelsus. That API could supply close to [--] million person on Wegovy"
X Link 2024-07-18T07:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@jq1234t Thats good reflections. Even though the TAM is massively BIG theres not room for a ton of different GLP1s. Merck is saying more or less the same. Looking for something other than GLP1. $nvo has done more than [--] RD deals the last [--] years for novel targets next gen AOM"
X Link 2024-07-18T18:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@jq1234t $nvs mentioning siRNA as interesting obesity space At $nvo CMD24 they spoke about how they will get [--] new siRNA P1 per year going forward. And 50% of their siRNA research projects is within T2D/obesity. Maybe I should start looking more in to this space 🤔"
X Link 2024-07-18T18:31Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@plustickbid He specifically mentioned they are not interested in anything GLP1 and GIP. They want novel targets and are looking/working at siRNA"
X Link 2024-07-19T16:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"16.8% placebo adjusted weight loss in [--] weeks for a pure GLP1. Thats really good data. China starts to move China's Gan & Lee unveils mid-stage data for homegrown obesity drug $NVO $LLY https://t.co/l7xJ8sK8MZ China's Gan & Lee unveils mid-stage data for homegrown obesity drug $NVO $LLY https://t.co/l7xJ8sK8MZ"
X Link 2024-07-22T18:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Jul05310473John Way to early to talk about CB1 as disrupting the market. And $NVO says about 15% WL at not 19%. Just wach their CMD24 presentation NVO did not pay $1.1B upfront. A large part of that is conditional on development and sales milestones. They proberly paid about $500 mio upfront"
X Link 2024-07-24T07:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@plainyogurt21 @BayAreaBiotechI @Biohazard3737 @drug_smolecules @A_May_MD $nvo "star" CB1 is not INV-202 but INV-343 https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810006445821448371 3) NVO also present preclinical INV-347. Oral CBr1 agonist currently in P1 Have NVO sent the wrong abstract text ne oral dose =129% WL after 1w and 188% W5. W5 268% reduction in FM and only 58% in LM. Al this with only ne oral dose. https://t.co/4PKQcOrpxj https://x.com/KNielsen2000/status/1810006445821448371 3) NVO also present preclinical INV-347. Oral CBr1 agonist currently in P1 Have NVO sent the wrong abstract text ne"
X Link 2024-07-24T19:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@AppleHelix What about $nvo"
X Link 2024-07-25T20:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Jul05310473John Thats still not something $nvo has said. They have said about 15% in 68w"
X Link 2024-07-25T21:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"$vktx is not potential third but 4/6 to marked. Boehringer Ingelheim already has several P3 trials running. They are the potential third. And then we have $vktx Amgen and Roche battling for next CagriSema will readout end [--]. $nvo said the shoot for +25% WL LLY also has Amylin in P2. Its only a matter of when they will start P2 with Zepbound +Amylin"
X Link 2024-07-26T15:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@plustickbid Its not likely that any of them will be in the group of BP talks. Merck is looking for non GLP1 molecules and $PFE already has a lot on their plate for earlier BO"
X Link 2024-07-26T17:45Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Its not just a thought. We should not neglect the fact that that many companies also invest heavily in new novel mechanisms. $nvo started the research into GLP1 more than [--] years ago. And they have the last [--] months made minimum [--] research deals into novel MoA. And Merck goes the same way"
X Link 2024-07-26T18:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Of those mentioned $NVO They already have industry high net profit margin. But it will go even higher the coming years as their revenue will increase +30% each year for several years. Their obesity franchise will significantly grow as they get more and more production capacity online. Also they return +50% profit to investors through dividend and share buybacks"
X Link 2024-07-28T08:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Amylin would be perfect to combine with CT388. $zeal for a license or $gubra for license or BO. BUT $gubra has to report good P1a data with GubAMY to be in the race. Those data is expected end Q3/primo Q4 IF good data then I see $gubra as one of the obesity biotechs with the highest likelihood of BO. [--] obesity assets and mcap range in the easy end for BP"
X Link 2024-07-28T09:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@semodough $nvo mentioned combining CB1 with GLP1 and other mechanisms already last year when they bought Inversago. Inversago that had [--] CB1 meds in their pipeline. I believe $crbp mgmt also have mentioned this before. Are there new comments out"
X Link 2024-07-30T11:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@DragonMaxGoku Thats not true. There are FOUR (five) different P3 obesity meds theres closer than VK2735 for potentiel approval. From $LLY Ratratutide and Orforglipron both with readout in [----] From $NVO Cagrisema (and 72mg Wegovy) both with P3 readout this year From Boehringer ingelheim Survodutide with readout [----] Amgen has MariTide that will also start P3 early [----]. Amycretin from $NVO is also on a path for P3 start medio 2025"
X Link 2024-07-30T15:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$nvo will report Q2 next week. We should see a lifted [--] guidance on both revenue and Ebit. Wegovy is up more than 50% in US Q2 vs Q1. And is already up further 25% ish on weekly Trx here in Q3. Regarding China then they are about to launch Wegovy in the country. Right now they have +100 open sales positions in China. A lot of them is for GLP1/Obesity. Those +100 open sales positions is more than 50% of open global sales positions. So seems like they are preparing for a big push in China. How the share will move on the Q2 er. your guess is as good as mine 🙂"
X Link 2024-07-30T16:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@DragonMaxGoku @jw929204 Sure it matters with their potential new launches. They offer increased WL and thereby raising the bar. And in general offer differentiations for the patients"
X Link 2024-07-30T16:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@BiotechSho99376 $MRK also said small molecules GLP1 and not peptides. If thats still their position then $vktx is not in the loop"
X Link 2024-07-30T20:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"And yet they still have said they are looking for small molecule GLP1 and not peptide. During the 45th Annual Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference Merck CEO Robert Davis said that the pharma is focusing its R&D efforts more on small molecule oral drugs rather than injectables. Were very much focused on the second- and third-generation opportunities Davis said adding that it is looking to advance GLP-1-targeting candidates that target other conditions on top of eliciting weight loss. So if Merck still prioritises small molecules then $vktx is not in the loop"
X Link 2024-07-31T05:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@0xPasserby @IFTF6 @MeadowCapital Yes but how does this fit in to the non peptide GLP1 asset that they are looking for No way Merck comes even close to those $15B. If BL wants that amount then we wont see any BO this time around. I think $MRK are looking for several BO and not just one"
X Link 2024-07-31T11:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@faststocknewss Link please. Cant imagine $LLY ceo saying anything like that in the silent period up to next weeks Q2 Earnings. Zepbound and Wegovy will be in shortage through at least [----] but most likely also through 2026"
X Link 2024-08-01T17:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Okay apparently a Bloomberg story. Neither $LLY nor $NVO has the capacity to supply the crazy pull from the market. That goes for today as well as next month and next year. What is written on a FDA subpage does not necessarily reflect the realities the patients is experiencing when they visit their local pharmacy"
X Link 2024-08-01T17:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@AppleHelix I agree. The upfront cash/stocks will be significantly lower than the mcap mentioned in here frequently. And a good CVR milestone structure could be part of that. Just important those CVR will be tradable at the stock market"
X Link 2024-08-01T20:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@MimiinAus23 10-15% cheaper than in Denmark. About the level of Europe"
X Link 2024-08-05T06:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"That pill already exists as Rybelsus. $nvo has still not filed for obesity even though they got stellar results last year that matched Wegovy. The challenge is the amount of API there has to go into a pill vs injection. +75x. Meaning [--] million patients on the highest obesity dose with the pill can supply more than [--] million using injection/wegovy. I think they are waiting for the two big P3 Alzheimers trials they also are running with the pill. They want to make sure they have enough API to that IF we next year see significant P3 results"
X Link 2024-08-05T06:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@BevTchangMD @US_FDA I to have been curious about this. Wegovy 1mg is FDA listed as en short supply with [----] persons reported they could not find it anywhere Zepbound 5mg and 7.5mg has reporting of 3700-6.000 persons not being able to find those doses anywhere"
X Link 2024-08-06T13:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"The pill version of semaglutide already exists. Its call Rybelsus. Highest dose 14mg. But the challenge is that it takes 41x more amount of API to supply one person with Rybelsus vs Wegovy. Therefore it will never be the solution for the huge masses. For that to happen it needs to be small molecules"
X Link 2024-08-06T19:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@0xPasserby The last part is easy to answer. No LLY is not outselling $nvo GLP. The latest IQVIA data from week [--] showed $LLY total GLP TRx at [------] vs TRx [------] for NVO GLPs. The pull from the market is still waaaaay larger than what the supply chain can deliver"
X Link 2024-08-07T09:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"US analyst data is rather easy since the IQVIA data comes each week. So we know the volume and its only a matter of how big a rebate was given. For Q2 there was a big revision for Wegovy prices especially from [----] but also going forward. New net price seems around $750 for Wegovy"
X Link 2024-08-07T10:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"This is extremely twisted by Fierce Biotech. The monthly GLP1/GIP was only a side note compared to other of the early pipeline. It was Amycretin above all other. And those data that moved the share. And then INV-347 an oral small molecule that today was confirmed as infrequent dosing with xxx days between each pill. Also a new Amylin and TRI agonist was detailed on the slides. There was not prepared any specific slide with the once monthly GLP1/GIP. It was just listed at pipeline graph as a phase [--] asset. Then during the Q&A session they got a question about it and their head of R&D said"
X Link 2024-08-07T13:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@0xPasserby @paulcerro @BillChildressPE The demand still exceeds the production by a huuuuuge margin. To my knowledge its the highest supply shortage ever registered at the GLP1 tracker. Also for Zepbound. It increases every single day. Wegovy though much faster than Zepbound"
X Link 2024-08-07T18:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@BertrandBio Interesting that $zeal then confirm what $NVO and $LLY say about the supply chain being restricted for many years. $VKTX on the other hand believe the supply constraints will be resolved by the time VK2735 potentially can hit the market"
X Link 2024-08-16T09:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$nvo mentioned in Q2 call that there was no difference between Wegovy and placebo in suicidal in the huge SELECT study with 17k patients. Also they mentioned that in the coming P2b with inv202 there would also be an arm combining inv202 with Wegovy. That would definitely be interesting to watch"
X Link 2024-08-20T16:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Seems like IGC Pharma have developed a GLP1/GIP/CBr1 molecule for obesity and Alzheimers. That sounds crazy I would instantly attract attention from BP including $LLY and $NVO. But what modality is it Is it possible to engage CBr1 through a peptide Or GIP through a small molecule This is quite interesting. IGC Pharma Expands Drug Portfolio to Metabolic Disorders with IGC-1A A Potential New GLP-1 Agonist IGC Stock News #Mounjaro #Rybelsus #Ozempic #Saxenda #Trulicity #Victoza #Wegovy #Zepbound #GLP1 #Dulaglutide #Liraglutide #Retatrutide #Semaglutide https://t.co/6QoDLsHMoC IGC Pharma Expands"
X Link 2024-08-20T18:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"They are already [--] years behind. Maybe GGG is a better choice for them If Rybelsus report significant AD data then I think $nvo will start AD trials with Amycretin. $NVO have said that CagriSema can do everything semaglutide can but just better. And Amycreatin is designed to be a better candidate than CagriSema and importantly Amycretin is GLP1 and Amylin in one molecule instead of two"
X Link 2024-08-20T18:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Thanks for sharing A few comments. Mounjaro/zepbound sale in Q2 was positively effected by stock filling up. They said between high teens and low twenties percentage of the sale was stock filling and not sale to actual patient. The TRx numbers should be quite accurate. Both $LLY and $nvo use them. The newest TRx is from week [--] with TRx [-------] Mounjaro and TRx [-------] Zepbound. Thats about [----] million patients (only US numbers) To my understanding its not API that the bottleneck for LLY. Its the pens and assembly of the pens. I would also believe LLY API capacity is significantly higher"
X Link 2024-08-22T19:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"We have to remember that it takes huuuuge amounts of API to do oral peptides. And for that reason oral peptides will never be the solution for the majority of the potential oral market. For that to happen it needs to be a small molecule. Therefore the main value in VK2735 is the SC version"
X Link 2024-08-22T19:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes technology evolves. But not that much. $NVO built a US API factory in 2016-20/21. Price $2.1B. It created about [---] jobs. During 2021-2023 $NVO announced the construction of [--] new API plants. (One solely for production to clinical trials) Total cost about $12 billion. And it takes 4-5 years to build and certified by FDA. One of those plants can produce more than double the US factory and yet it only creates [---] new jobs. NVO says not even Chinese companies can produce peptide API to the price NVO can. And yet NVO says oral peptides cant get scaled to [--] million patients. It simply takes"
X Link 2024-08-23T09:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@semodough @sneakview Wegovy TRx 209k and Ozempic TRx 582k Wegovy new record with 6k Zepbound new record with 13k"
X Link 2024-08-23T14:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"You indirectly get the answers from $vktx. You just look at the the amount of API used in their studies. 15mg vs 700mg (once weekly vs once daily) thats 46x API for oral. Wegovy 2.4mg vs currently highest Rybelsus 14mgx7 is 41x amount of API. We will definitely see the oral tech improve and thereby also increase the bioavailability. $NVO is just about to launch their [--]. Generation SNAC. That improvement reduce the 14mg Rybelsus to 9mg. Meaning a reduction from 41x to 26x. $LLY says the same. Oral peptides will be for the high end and high price segment. But to scale BIG you need small"
X Link 2024-08-23T16:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Semaglutide can also be produced by SPPS. But $NVO says its significantly more efficient and thereby at lower cost to produce through yeast. As I mentioned in another thread $NVO is currently building [--] new API factories at a cost above $12B. And the production output is +3x over their API lines built a decade ago. So when novo (and $LLY) say oral peptides cant scale really big its on the backbone of the absolutely newest tech with a lot of robotics etc. so no they are not locked to the old tech"
X Link 2024-08-23T17:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"It has been mentioned numerous times at their investor presentations. And we can also us self calculate the hug e X factor and see the many billions dollars $LLY and $nvo is investing in new API factories Theres also a reason everyone is chasing oral small molecules. Is there anyone besides $Vktx and $nvo that have oral obesity peptide in the clinic Must be. But cant recall"
X Link 2024-08-23T20:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Huh False premises $NVO has also done Rybelsus trials in both T2D and obesity with 25mg and 50mg. And with results like Wegovy 2.4mg. As of now they have only filled for approval in T2D in EU. They havent filed for obesity yet. Solely because of the high usage of API. With [--]. Generation SNAC (novo tech to convert Wegovy to oral) we know it has decreased the current 14mg dose to 9mg. But the havent shared how much 25mg and 50mg can get reduced. The amount of API used is public for us all to see. Whether we talk Rybelsus or VKTX. Yes oral tech will improve over the years and increase the"
X Link 2024-08-24T12:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Ehhh no. The high dose is because of the extremely low bioavailability of oral peptides. Meaning it MUST be a very high dose compared to SC. Wegovy 2.4mg per week vs 14x7mg Rybelsus per week. Thats 41x API for Rybelsus. That betters when the launch the new 9mg. But still 26x API The same calculation for VK2735 is 15mg per week SC vs 100x7 for oral. Thats 46x. So same range bioavailability. I think you are mixing the actual amount of API for GLP1 vs GLP1/GIP. You cant compare the amount of API when its not same mechanism. So the 14mg Rybelsus vs 100mg VK2735 doesnt say anything specific about"
X Link 2024-08-24T18:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Has the IND for [---] been moved forward They used to say P1 in [----]. In two weeks time $nvo will also present INV347 data at EASD (together with P1 Amycretin) Its only preclinical data on inv347. But NVO just confirmed that the preclinical PK profile suggests infrequent oral dosing. And thats for an oral small molecule. P1 ongoing with expected conclusions later 2024"
X Link 2024-08-24T18:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"What Adam mentioned. Oral peptide marked will be more of a lucrative niche business with lower volume. And when small molecules oral obesity hit the market they would be priced significantly lower and take the largest stake of oral obesity. $nvo is currently the only one with a oral GLP1 peptide on the market. Q2 saw SC Ozempic/wegovy sales just below $6B. Their oral Rybelsus (exactly the same molecule) saw sales of about $850 million. Factor 7x for SC. And yet the oral Rybelsus used more than 25x the amount of API So from an analyst side the NPV value of oral [----] is significantly lower than"
X Link 2024-08-25T10:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@semodough First time Wegovy crossed the [-------] US patients. Zepbound just above [-------]. Who will be the first to cross [--] million. And when will it happen For reference then it takes a weekly TRx of [-------] as what is equivalent to [--] million patients for one month"
X Link 2024-08-26T17:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Thats right. All that can be produced is sold. And Zepbound/wegovy is still only launched in very few countries because of this capacity constraints. For both $LLY and $NVO to reach their [----] guidance Zepbound/Mounjaro and Wegovy/Ozempic sales has to increase FAST for the rest of the year. Thats also why its good to be able to track those IQVIA data each week"
X Link 2024-08-26T18:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@chuminhua432 Thanks for sharing. I did not know that requirement for Chinese GLP1 trials. We see more and more Chinese biotech move in to the obesity space. I think we will start to see more BP do license with Chinese biotechs"
X Link 2024-08-27T15:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Mark748779211 @cigs1234 We cant use list prices in US since theres a huge rebate. $nvo get about $800 for Wegovy and $LLY about $600 for Zepbound. Expect those prices to be lower in 2030"
X Link 2024-08-27T16:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Well in Europe the price for 2.4mg Wegovy is about $350 for [--] weeks supply. And that is more or less all paid by the patient. No healthcare support. And yet we see in a country like Denmark that 1.45% of the total population is on Wegovy. That would be about [---] million Americans paying them self for Wegovy. The pull from the market is much much larger than what currently is possible to supply. We need real small molecule oral to get down to those prices"
X Link 2024-08-27T17:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Great new $NVO analysis from the hands of @ditlevfriis I was myself positive surprised that INV-202 was discussed so much at the London call. First time the program got so much attention. And now we await [--] readout from [--] P2 obesity programs. We should hear about the first any day New blog post up on $NVO - link in next tweet https://t.co/7GjmAU85So New blog post up on $NVO - link in next tweet https://t.co/7GjmAU85So"
X Link 2024-08-27T20:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Jul05310473John @ditlevfriis Primary Completion has passed and $NVO has said one will report in Q3 and the other in Q4. I dont expect to see more than top line data. Not any detailed side effects. Those will come later in a publication and/or conference"
X Link 2024-08-28T09:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I think $NVO just showed the world their new Amylin named NNC0638-0355 P1 start in sep and estimated to run for one year At NVO CMD24 they showed how AI had been part in selecting the new Amylin. And that it would start P1 this year https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06577766lead=Novo%20Nordisk%20A%2FS&cond=Obesity&aggFilters=status:not&rank=2 https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06577766lead=Novo%20Nordisk%20A%2FS&cond=Obesity&aggFilters=status:not&rank=2"
X Link 2024-08-30T08:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"NNC0638-0355 is $NVO first pureplay amylin. Their first was Cagrilintide which is combined with Semaglutide and then makes up CagriSema. CagriSema reports first P3 in nov/dec this year. Expected WL about 25% NVO next amylin is Amycretin. Thats a GLP1/Amylin in one and same molecule. So improved version over CagriSema. But NVO has been missing a pureplay amylin. Either as stand alone (expectet WL about 15-20%) or in combinationes with one or two more. I think we will begin to se more combinationes. Not only for higher WL. But also for improved quality WL. Meaning more fat loss and less lean"
X Link 2024-08-30T08:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Does $NVO report P2 obesity data with INV202/Monlunabant shortluy NVO already said they expect to report P2 data in Q3. Late yesterday NVO updated the P2 protocol. So instead of "estimated" date for primary completion it now read "actual" primary completion. I have today bought my first $CRBP. Its not that i think its particular cheap. But NVO and their analyst have the last month or so been talking a lot of the coming P2 data. And no doubt $CRBP will react on Monlunabant data. That goes both directions. So my play is high risk and short. Its a small molecule oral CB1r. [--] weeks studie. NVO"
X Link 2024-08-30T19:26Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$LLY and $NVO Will Continue to have huge supply chain bottlenecks well in to [----] and also [----]. See how few countries Zepbound and Wegovy has launched in. LLY has also said they should build 10x more factories to catch up on the demand. But a lot of the equipment in those huge factories is also a bottleneck"
X Link 2024-09-02T19:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Im not aware of shortage in raw material For SC its lack of pens fill capacity and assembly of the pens and vials. Viking is the ONLY who thinks the supply chain is ready for all the demand by [----]. As mentioned LLY said they need to build [--] more factories. And $NVO is buying the largest CDMO for fill/finish capacity. They pay $11B for Catalents [--] FF factories. Furthermore NVO just announced they are building a new Fill/Finish factory in US. Price $41B. And i know NVO is planning to build a factory that can produce around [---] million pens per year. But they need to scale for [---] million in"
X Link 2024-09-03T07:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@doepke_michel Also $NVO Amycretin P1 data https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1810005528896012703s=46 1) New NVO Amycretin obesity data Since NVO presented oral P1 Amycretin data at CMD24 with 131% WL in 12W everyone has been asking for more data. Well that time have now arrived. Here are abstract from Amycretin presentation at EASD24 https://t.co/LrpQo44eTU https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1810005528896012703s=46 1) New NVO Amycretin obesity data Since NVO presented oral P1 Amycretin data at CMD24 with 131% WL in 12W everyone has been asking for more data. Well that time have now arrived."
X Link 2024-09-03T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Jul05310473John And if nvo data is bad also expect read through to $crbp I dont expect $nvo to publish side effects. It will only be top line. The rest will follow in publications and conference"
X Link 2024-09-03T19:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I agree that Amycretin would be even more interesting if it could get to once monthly. And since i also have Nanexa a deal between $NVO and Nanexa would be more than welcome. $Nanexa PharmaShell is one of [--] external technology platforms NVO is testing right now. To make extended release version to once monthly SC and potential once weekly oral. "Just" a deal on once monthly ozempic version would be more than huge. Especially for Nanexa since they has such low MCAP. But also for NVO since they then could extend their patent runway"
X Link 2024-09-04T07:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Mjaaa its definitely a good and very important milestone if the ongoing P1 with once per month victoza/Saxenda confirms and validate the PharmaShell platform. But we dont know what molecules $NVO is testing in their in-house preclinical models. But those studies need to deliver stellar data as well"
X Link 2024-09-04T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Update A tip from a smart guy. The 52w length of P3 trials is most likely 52w at max dose. So depending on how many titrations levels it will probably be 68-72 weeks in total"
X Link 2024-09-04T19:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Shrimpen1 One of them is a hydrogel that in preclinical test with liraglutide could extend the release to [--] months. I dont know if thats the one use for the GLP1/GIP thats now closed"
X Link 2024-09-05T06:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes it looks to be the same. But I think its external from Standford where $NVO pitched in. Like with $Nanexa. But if thats one of the [--] who havent been in NVO pipeline yet or the one they just pulled. I dont know. But agree that publication/data show to high initial peak. I cant read your second post"
X Link 2024-09-05T09:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Gustavo01585102 @Shrimpen1 Theres also an israelien company. Forgot the name"
X Link 2024-09-05T09:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Gustavo01585102 @Shrimpen1 I dont dare think of a potential $NVO deal with $Nanexa about semaglutide. The numbers would instantly make it the deal of the decade"
X Link 2024-09-05T09:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Its NOT because of lack of API that $NVO is in back order on Ozempic/wegovy. It pens and FF theres the bottlenecks. The same is the case for $LLY Both LLY and NVO is ramping as fast as they can. $NVO has since November [----] made investment in new capacity of more than $25B. More than any other BP. And LLY more than $10B"
X Link 2024-09-05T17:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Now the second P2 protocol with Monlunabant (CB1r) has been updated. Primary Completion has been changed from estimated to actual. I think $NVO will make a PR at next weeks EASD with P2 obesity data with Monlunabant. I have bought more $CRBP Does $NVO report P2 obesity data with INV202/Monlunabant shortluy NVO already said they expect to report P2 data in Q3. Late yesterday NVO updated the P2 protocol. So instead of "estimated" date for primary completion it now read "actual" primary completion. I have today Does $NVO report P2 obesity data with INV202/Monlunabant shortluy NVO already said"
X Link 2024-09-05T17:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@doepke_michel $NVO Will share more Amycretin data next week at EASD. And possibly also make a PR on P2 monlunabant data next week. https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1831745060993437952s=46 Now the second P2 protocol with Monlunabant (CB1r) has been updated. Primary Completion has been changed from estimated to actual. I think $NVO will make a PR at next weeks EASD with P2 obesity data with Monlunabant. I have bought more $CRBP https://t.co/5i7uvrvDJs https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1831745060993437952s=46 Now the second P2 protocol with Monlunabant (CB1r) has been updated. Primary"
X Link 2024-09-05T20:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@paras_biotech The 15% WL is their estimate of potential P3 results. Meaning about the same as Wegovy in an oral small molecule. The P2 is only 16w. I have not heard them guide for those studies. I expect 6-8% Lets see if they do a PR during next weeks EASD conference. Would make sense"
X Link 2024-09-07T05:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVO highlighting Monlunabant shortly before P2 data readout. Now all focus on next week EASD conference. CB1r hammer time $CRBP Novo Nordisks CFO stated that his expectations of weight loss from Inversagos MONLUNABANT Ph2 is around 15% Data readout is in the next [--] weeks 🤞 would be a big seminal day for CB-1 class especially for safety side (not so much the GI but suicidal side) Novo Nordisks CFO stated that his expectations of weight loss from Inversagos MONLUNABANT Ph2 is around 15% Data readout is in the next [--] weeks 🤞 would be a big seminal day for CB-1 class especially for safety side"
X Link 2024-09-07T05:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"this is a scientific conference and not investor conference. So would be surprised if any of those questions will be answered by $NVO next week. My take on some of the Q #2 at CMD24 $NVO stated they see the oral peptides go for high end oral segment. High price and not in big volumes. #4 the 100mg was highest dose in P1. We never see the highest P1 doses go all the way to the market. My guess is 25/50mg will be top dose. NVO can supply a few million patients per year (they currently supply about [---] million patients on Rybelsus - oral version of Ozempic/semaglutide) #5 $NVO already said their"
X Link 2024-09-07T17:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Gustavo01585102 @Shrimpen1 Heres another company Adocia working on a gel for semaglutide. They aim to start clinical trials in a few years. The danish financial newspaper Brsen has asked $NVO for a comment. NVO replied that they do not work with the Adocia https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-09-semaglutide-hydrogel-diabetes-shots-month.html https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-09-semaglutide-hydrogel-diabetes-shots-month.html"
X Link 2024-09-08T06:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Mufaso7 I would ad $NVO Monlunabant to your list of small molecule. We are waiting for P2 obesity data. Possible coming as early as next week"
X Link 2024-09-08T10:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Im quite confident that Camurus does not have a collaboration with $nvo on semaglutide. We would have heard of it if that was the case. All those companies telling about preclinical semaglutide studies. They are telling for publicity purposes. IF they had a license deal with novo then $NVO most likely ban them from telling the world. Until P1 starts. We know NVO is testing at least [--] different tech platforms. The only one we know for sure is Nanexa and their PharmaShell"
X Link 2024-09-08T12:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@GLP1_News Its only a game changer if it can be sold. And they dont have any deal or even collaboration with $NVO. $NVO is working with Swedish biotech Nanexa to make slow release versions for once monthly or even once every [--] months"
X Link 2024-09-08T18:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Shrimpen1 @Gustavo01585102 No i have not more news than what has been said public. $NVO is focusing a lot on RNAi. So expect to see about [--] new in P1 each year"
X Link 2024-09-09T14:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"That right. I believe $NVO is the only who currently run a P2 GLP1/GIP with Tirzepatide as an active comparator. NN0519-0130 is NVO GLP1/GIP. They already has a fully enrolled P2 obesity trial. It says primary completion 2024-11/25. However its a 36w trial so the only way we get to see first data this year is if they have included an interim 12/16w readout. https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06326060lastUpdPost=2024-08-01_&lead=Novo%20Nordisk%20A%2FS&aggFilters=status:act&rank=1"
X Link 2024-09-09T18:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes you me and everyone 🙂 Todays talk of side effects also confirms that biotech is difficult for laymen. Getting behind the numbers. Titration means everything in these shorter trials. I guess we will repeat it all again tomorrow when $NVO share more details from P1 with Amycretin. That was also a very steep titration. From 6mg to 100mg in [--] weeks"
X Link 2024-09-09T20:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ASchulz888 @GilaMonstrum With Monlunabant Thats $NVO CB1 oral small molecule obesity. Its juuuust about to report two P2 week results. Targets about 15% WL in [--] weeks. For an oral easy and cheap to scale BIG https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1831745060993437952s=46 Now the second P2 protocol with Monlunabant (CB1r) has been updated. Primary Completion has been changed from estimated to actual. I think $NVO will make a PR at next weeks EASD with P2 obesity data with Monlunabant. I have bought more $CRBP https://t.co/5i7uvrvDJs https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1831745060993437952s=46 Now the"
X Link 2024-09-09T21:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVO comment I Danish financial newspaper Borsen that they do not have any collaborations with Adocia. But $NVO is currently doing preclinical validation studies of Nanexa PharmaShell. Another technology to make slow release. Nanexa currently running a small P1 with once monthly victoza. First generation GLP1 from NVO Nanexa also have several mAb validation collaborations"
X Link 2024-09-10T21:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes. But we need lager trials for that. Thats also why they have said they will start P2b this year. And the study design is really interesting. They will have an active Wegovy comparator arm. And most likely also an arm with Monlunabant + Wegovy. THAT will be interesting to see In general NVO expects Monlunabant will reach 15% WL in [--] weeks. So what happens when you add Wegovy"
X Link 2024-09-10T21:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@GilaMonstrum This is in line with expectations and the stock market react accordingly. When titration is forced in these shorter trials GI side effects increases. And that is easy to reduce with longer trials and titration"
X Link 2024-09-11T14:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@GilaMonstrum I think the obesity space in general has had a period with pressure on share prices"
X Link 2024-09-11T14:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$nvo was up more than 2% yesterday and is up with 3.25% as I write this comment. Seems like the market was pleased by Amycretin data shown yesterday. That investors could see behind the data. From low share of women in the trial and WL is lager with women than men. Meaning underlying increased WL than already reported. Also that the BMI was low compared with P3 patients groups. Also underlying increased WL. Also that investors could see what forced titration does and how easy it is to reduce the current publish side effects. Thats not to say Amycretin will be with really low side effects."
X Link 2024-09-12T09:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@onemodolar Oral Amycretin 100mg is not commercially feasible. That will never hit the market. Even 50mg is a stretch. Thats why oral peptides only will be a small but high end (expensive) market. Primarily for those who can pay out of pocket"
X Link 2024-09-12T16:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Jul05310473John theres absolutely nothing hinting that $NVO is about to kill Amycretin. Its theres highest priority program and the P1 data was a blowout compared to all other [--] week oral data. The side effects profile look similar to semaglutide/CagriSema data when taking the forced titration in to consideration. The biggest value for Amycretin is not in oral but in SC. And we typically see better SC data than oral data. Its also in that light we should see the big share price move back at the CMD"
X Link 2024-09-13T05:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@sneakview @semodough 100% agree Martin. We will see $NVO do a very aggressive clinical trial setup with Amycretin. Those indications semaglutide has been developed for over [--] years. We will see NVO start many of those trials starting from second half 2025"
X Link 2024-09-13T11:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$NVO only start a clinical trial with oral if its their plan to go all the way to the market. All companies do preclinical PK studies so they have a pretty good idea of what will be the therapeutic doses. $NVO also public stated that they want to develop both SC and oral. They want to do combo trials with both like what the so right now in [---] patients T2D P2 trial. Also remember that especially in P1 you go high in doses to test boundaries. They are currently testing [--] other formulations in other P1. My guess is that they are testing for potential better oral bioavailability hence lower"
X Link 2024-09-14T07:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$NVO in general said oral obesity peptides will be for a smal high end (read expensive) pay out of pocket segment. For exactly that reason you mention. Its not scalable to dose tens of millions patients. NVO currently supplies about [---] million patients on Rybelsus. The oral peptide version of Ozempic. Last year they got positive P3 with 50mg Rybelsus in obesity. 17% WL. But official we havent been told if they have applied FDA/EMA yet. Only 25/50mg T2D in EU My own guess is they hold obesity indication back until they have the results for the [--] large P3 with Rybelsus in Alzheimers. IF those"
X Link 2024-09-14T07:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PCM_bio $MRK has public said they are looking for small molecules. That rules $VKTX out. Could they walk back of that. Sure. Anything is possible. But the likelihood is most likely in the low end. Its two VERY different directions and impact on the whole supply chain"
X Link 2024-09-14T11:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Hes confirming the overall talk about high amount oral peptide is a challenge. Even though novo will go for lower commercial dose than 100mg then its still a huge amount. How vk2735 will stack up as once weekly is definitely interesting to see. But its also a big question mark at this point in time. Vk2735 has a half life about 50% longer than semaglutide (Wegovy). And oral semaglutide (Rybelsus) is taken every day. I think we will see more combination treatments down the road. Patients starting on high effective SC and when they hit a plateau and are still obese then they will ad a small"
X Link 2024-09-15T07:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"As I mentioned theres a HUUUUGH difference in going for small molecules vs peptides. Its not a decision you quickly arrive at. I dont know $MRK management including R&D management. But some companies prioritise to go for novel first in class targets/drugs over going for potential best in class among many others same target. As a shareholder in $VKTX I would welcome any BP wanting to buy VKTX. But I would place the likelihood of a $MRK takeover below 10%"
X Link 2024-09-15T10:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Sports_bios @john_bresnahan $NVO had a GDF-15 in P1 back in 21/22. They closed it after P1. Not because safety but because it didnt have a good enough effect compared to other internal obesity programs"
X Link 2024-09-16T14:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@SenSanders witness spoils 58% of his arguments. 27:40 Dale Folwell Treasurer of the State of North Carolina tell that they had [------] on Wegovy and that would cost the state $170 million per year. Well $170 million/23.000/13(13 scripts = [--] year) that gives a price on $569 per script vs a Wegovy list price at $1349. Thats a 58% rebate on the list price. On top of that Bernie Sanders also manipulate with the European Wegovy prices. In all other countries than US Wegovy price increase with the dose. For instance in Denmark 2.4mg wegovy cost about $345. And thats 100% out of pocket. So NO. US"
X Link 2024-09-17T21:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@seedy19tron No $NVO has very clearly said the obesity P2 will report her in Q3. And that the program is of such importance that it will get its ownPR and not Waite until Q3 report"
X Link 2024-09-19T21:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I fail to see how this makes I harder to trust what BP mgmt says about obesity drugs and plans Developing new medicines is not exactly easy. Most meds fail. And $NVO already showed they kill their darlings if data does not support spending more time and money on it https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1838174209761047008s=46 https://x.com/knielsen2000/status/1838174209761047008s=46"
X Link 2024-09-23T11:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@semodough Also big jump and new record for Wegovy. [------] vs former record at 212300"
X Link 2024-09-23T12:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@bioinvestor24 May I suggest you read the PR again"
X Link 2024-09-24T17:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MikeSmith_10X @MichaelAlbertMD Compounded Its the official price https://www.australianpharmacist.com.au/what-impact-will-wegovy-have-on-the-obesity-epidemic/ https://www.australianpharmacist.com.au/what-impact-will-wegovy-have-on-the-obesity-epidemic/"
X Link 2024-09-25T21:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Thats not going to happen. That $NVO buys $VKTX. Besides CagriSema they have Amycretin. The current best oral WL and where we will see SC data in Q1. SC typically higher WL than oral. And oral was 12% in 12w Likely start P3 end [----]. About [--] months after vk2735 P3 start. But NVO will start multiple large P3 and P2b within short time of first P3. Then NVO also has a GLP1/GIP in two P2b. Obesity and T2D. Both studies with an active 15mg Tirzepatide arm. We more or less never see that happen in P2b studies since thats an extra high risk to ad already in P2. That also means NVO feels confident."
X Link 2024-09-27T16:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@bioinvestor24 How lucky $NVO will have 36w Amycretin data next year from [---] patients P2 trial"
X Link 2024-09-27T18:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVO is actually chasing external R&D. Its a specific priority. They have done +10 larger R&D deals since [----]. But NVO prefers to do research deals with up to [--] targets per deal. They have also done few BO with assets in clinical. But also here they prefer early stage assets. They want to be able to help form the P2/3 clinical protocols and directions. Thereby add value to the meds"
X Link 2024-09-27T18:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I already gave you the info so you can look it up. I could not mention the two P2b trials without having seen the protocols etc. it was you who started this thread without actually having spend any time looking at NVO obesity pipeline. I am long in BOTH $vktx and $nvo. So no Im not constantly attacking VKTX. Im trying to ad nuances and broadening the scope of the biotech/BP"
X Link 2024-09-28T10:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I have not seen the actual JPM not where they flag a potential Q3 miss from $NVO. Im definitely curious to read it. But any potential miss is not because lag of pull from the market. Actual the pull have never been larger than now. So if they miss Q3 then its supply chain constraints. I would be very surprised if the net price for Wegovy would be lower than implied in Q2 (hit by recalculating [----] rebates ) Both $NVO and $LLY can easily sell every single GLP1 dose they can produce. And we will also see [----] be hit by larger market pull than what the supply chain can deliver. It is extremely"
X Link 2024-09-28T11:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$ROG has [--] obesity meds in their clinical pipeline"
X Link 2024-09-30T16:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ASchulz888 @0xPasserby $NVO also has both pure semaglutid trial and semaglutid + FGF21 trial data comming"
X Link 2024-10-01T14:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Thats already possible with Ozempic and oral Rybelsus (oral Ozempic) I havent heard of any connection between Ozempic vs Rybelsus patients. Those who choose oral does it mainly because they dont like needles. I believe that will be the overall reason to use an oral peptide. Afraid of needles"
X Link 2024-10-04T15:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes in US its about 1:10 between Rybelsus vs Ozempic (TRx [------] vs TRx 590.000) But global its about [---] million patients per month. In general oral peptides will probably mainly be a luxury product with higher prices than SC versions. Also because the supply constraints with oral peptides"
X Link 2024-10-04T16:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@fluffer9 @semodough Nobody knows 🙂since theres no data yet to support that"
X Link 2024-10-04T16:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes so are Ozempic/wegovy vs Rybelsus. And Amycretin is being developed the same way with SC and oral. You mentioned yourself that SC typical gives better effect than oral. So why go from SC to less effective oral in maintenance Then you will just gain weight faster than continuing your SC dose. Wegovy [---] is called maintenance dose. I know that $vktx has mentioned the oral maintenance possibility. I just dont see what the patient will benefit from that move. But those who are afraid of needles they will start in the oral even though that SC weight be more effective. And yes $VKTX is still my"
X Link 2024-10-04T18:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$LLY take a licensdeal on Danish Nordic Bioscience P2 ready Amylin in obesity and other indications. $1.4B milestones and royalties from 5% to "low" double digit (my guess is 12-15%) This is the first time we see real value on amylin molecules through a partner deal. (LLY actual also did another deal back in [----] but that was long before obesity and amylin became hot) This should reflect positive on especially $zeal and $Gubra whom both have amylin i P1 (ZP soon P2) And especially on $Gubra since their Mcap is only about $1.1B $Gubra will present P1a data on their amylin #GUBamylin end of"
X Link 2024-10-10T14:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Agree though I would broaden it to say this is why $LLY and $NVO will keep holding 80% of the TAM. No other BP have the capacity and/or dare to invest THAT kind of money upfront before the first approval and revenue. Other BP will slow walk the development and investment in supply chain"
X Link 2024-10-13T19:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Currently theres about [------] active Americans wegovy users. NVO supplies all what they produce yet many cannot get their hands on it"
X Link 2024-10-14T07:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"In Denmark we get official wegovy sale each month. Last week the august numbers got published. After a flat summer we are back to further increase again. From last record at 1.45% to now 1.51% Denmark is interesting since its 100% out of pocket ($340 for 2.4mg wegovy) and theres no shortages. So it shows the real pull from the market at this specific price. When looking at the Danish vs US numbers its also important to know the bigger context. In Denmark 18% of the population is obese BMI30 vs [----] in US"
X Link 2024-10-14T07:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@semodough [--] New records for $LLY. [------] for Mounjaro and [------] for Zepbound and no new records for Ozempic and Zepbound. So this was a great week for LLy"
X Link 2024-10-14T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@BigRedAzure About $340 for 2.4mg Wegovy"
X Link 2024-10-15T06:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$NVO hiring VP for launching Semaglutide in Alzheimers. $NVO currently runs two large (2x1840 patients) P3 AD trials with Rybelsus. The oral version of Ozempic/wegovy. They will report data in about [--] months. But $NVO is pushing ahead and preparing a potential launch in [----]. IF and its still a big IF semaglutide/Rybelsus really slow down progression of AD then it would be no less than a game changer. Nothing really helps AD patients. I think $NVO is holding back on filing for oral Wegovy (the already have finished P3 with 17% WL) because of the AD indication. They want to make sure they can"
X Link 2024-10-17T17:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Ahh ok now I follow. We cant just read any other trial data into vk2735. Some of it is MoA and other is about the molecule itself. And AD is definitely in the HIGH risk end of potential other indications. Not even $LLY has initiated AD trials with GLP. So IF Rybelsus ends with significants then $NVO will have that market for them self 4+ years"
X Link 2024-10-17T18:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes. And thats also my fear. That 14mg just miss p-0.05 and that 25/50 then could hit that significants. $NVO actually just revealed a new P1 where they test [--] new formulations of Rybelsus. Going for higher bioavailability. By the way Im not sure NVO has filed FDA yet for the new [--]. Generation Rybelsus that was recently approved in EU. With 1.5mg 4mg and 9mg doses (instead of 3mg 7mg and 14mg)"
X Link 2024-10-17T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$ROG has now startet two P2 studies with CT-388. One in T2D and one obesity trial. Both trials is 48w with 360/450 patients in each testing 4/5 doses (Mounjaro [--] doses) T2D trial expect to conclude medio [----] and the obesity trial Q1 [----]. That means potential P3 obesity trial could start 2nd half [----] $VKTX $LLY $NVO #GLP1 #obesity https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06525935term=CT-388&rank=2 https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06628362cond=Obesity&lastUpdPost=2024-06-30_&aggFilters=phase:2status:rec&sort=StudyFirstPostDate&rank=2"
X Link 2024-10-20T14:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Oral peptide Rybelsus (oral Ozempic) hits significant reductions in MACE. [----] patients followed 3-5 year. No other oral peptide can report similar P3 data in this decade. In [----] people with #T2D in the SOUL CVOT subjects treated with oral semaglutide had a 14% reduction in MACE #CVD #heartdisease Up to 49% of patients received SGLT2i at some point during the trial https://t.co/RoDo65ymyx https://t.co/QOhO43xSll In [----] people with #T2D in the SOUL CVOT subjects treated with oral semaglutide had a 14% reduction in MACE #CVD #heartdisease Up to 49% of patients received SGLT2i at some point"
X Link 2024-10-21T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$VKTX cant run such trials them self. $NVO have spend about $1.5B on those two (SC and Oral) trials. Thats the biggest issue with VKTX going in to P3 without a partner. They cant start multiple large P3 trials in several indications before they have P3 results in obesity and T2D. But with a BP on board then the whole P3 program will be more aggressive"
X Link 2024-10-21T17:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This was only with 14mg dose. With 50mg Rybelsus it more or less hit the same WL effects as 2.4mg Wegovy. That would probably also bring the MACE close to the Select data. But 50mg Rybelsus takes 145x the amount as 2.4mg Wegovy This is why oral peptides is fare from being scaled to truly mass market with +10 million patients"
X Link 2024-10-21T20:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVO has [--] Amylin in development two of them are combo GLP1. #Cagrisema will report two P3 obesity and T2D within the next [--] months. Amycretin is in P1/2 and could potentially start P3 second half [----] And then they have a pure play Amylin in P1 $LLY also has [--] Amylin in P1 and P2 Astra zeneca has one Amylin in P2 Then theres $Zeal that you visit. Theres is about to start P2 $GUBRA also has an Amylin in P1. If youre a BP and want to get your hands on an Amylin already in clinical development then theres only $zeal and $Gubra. Then"
X Link 2024-10-23T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Did $NVO just reveal they are getting thumbs up to buy Catalent Everyone in the obesity space is following closely what FTC will decide on the potential $NVO buying of Catalents [--] Fill/Finish factories. Theres a lot of pushback from both Americans politicians and other BP like $LLY and $ROG. The latter is just competitors teasing. But now $NVO har posted a new job position that reveals they are opening a new department which sole responsibility is to You will be part of AM Brownfield Site Integration a newly established unit in Product Supply Aseptic Manufacturing (PS AM). The unit aims to"
X Link 2024-10-23T17:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@GilaMonstrum How does DACRA reduce the amount of API needed"
X Link 2024-10-24T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes but youre still adding an extra molecule hence more API. $NVO has CagriSema. Two molecules (semaglutide GLP1 + cagrilintid Amylin) 2.4mg +2.4mg SC Then NVO have the new molecule Amycretin which is ONE molecule hitting both GLP1 and DARCA. Amycretin has been tested up to 100mg oral. Rybelsus is tested up to 50mg. (Equal 2.4mg semaglutide). cagrilintid has not been developed oral. But its same dose as semaglutide. So all in all its exactly the same amount of API for Amycretin vs CagriSema. No reduction API Yes NVO might chose to do P3 dose slightly below 100mg. But all in all it looked very"
X Link 2024-10-24T16:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Correct GLP1/GIP has yet to be combined with an Amylin. But LLY has already said they will. And they have [--] Amylin in P2 to pick from. Also expect $NVO to start such combo trial end 25/primo [--]. So $VKTX will most likely be the third company to do it. On less some BP buys $zeal or $GUBRA Amylin. Then such company might also do it"
X Link 2024-10-24T17:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ManOfSteelixx @onemodolar @A_May_MD @riddle245 BL just said 20/80%. That fits perfectly with the whole oral peptide saga. An also with what we see from $NVO regarding SC Ozempic vs oral Rybelsus. Theres not at big move. Those who start with Rybelsus is typically those who are afraid of needles"
X Link 2024-10-25T09:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Marc the comparison is 1mg Ozempic (most T2D patients use that dose) compared with 14mg Rybelsus is the apple to apple comparison. So we have access to real time data and not just an estimate what [----] split would look like in [----] BL har now confirmed the bare for oral peptides with the current oral technology that only gives an bioavailability at 1-2%"
X Link 2024-10-25T09:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In US the current max Rybelsus is 14mg per day. In Europe [--]. Gen Rybelsus is launched with max 9mg. But it has the same effect as the old 14mg since they have improved the bioavailability of Rybelsus. NVO also have finalised several P3 studies with up to 50mg Rybelsus. They could already be on the marked. But 50mg then you start to use a LOT of API. And therefore novo have not launched that dose yet. It might come in 25/26 where novo get many tons extra peptide API capacity"
X Link 2024-10-25T09:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Good catch with the LLY combo trial. I had not seen that. And its actually already [--] combo trials they have started. However Eloralintide is pure play Amylin and not DARCA This whole DACRA name target is new to the market. Its more or less the Danish Nordic Biosciences that started calling it that. Then LLY did a license deal with them in [----] and LLY started using DACRA. But up until a few months ago all other was just calling it Amylin. Even $NVO who has CagriSema/cagrilintide in P3 just call it Amylin. cagrilintide is an agonist of both amylin and Calcitonin So DACRA is new naming to the"
X Link 2024-10-26T16:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"They will not go straight to P3. They need to do P1B/P2 first. Thats also the model they used for CagriSema. But Im just speculating. $NVO has not said anything in that regard. In general we will see both LLy and NVO take way more risk with newer pipeline assets. Moving fast also to quickly kill your darlings. They can move faster than all others because they already have a TON of data to crunch and they already have their huge cash cows"
X Link 2024-10-26T19:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks @cigs1234 $NVO has two very important milestones the coming weeks. And a lot depends on how those materialise. CagriSema and Catalent. But NVO has indirectly guided the marked to +$100B revenue in [----]. From $35B last year Regarding VKTX and a potential 10xbagger. If they are bought within the next 6-9 months (prior to P3 start) then its below 100% higher than now. But Im also ready for a 50% bid next week"
X Link 2024-10-26T19:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@GilaMonstrum @A_May_MD @semodough LLY and NVO goes for both. Regarding LLY then they have other P1 where they specifically names it DACRA. Thats also the $1.4B deal they made two weeks ago. So they go for both equal balancing and high affinity for Amylin vs calcitonin like the patents you found"
X Link 2024-10-26T19:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes thats the one. We have almost no public data so makes no sense to scrutinise it. But NVO did apparently see enough to start two high risk 36W P2 studies including an arm with tirzepatide. And [--] other studies. So an aggressive development where they get a fast go/no go in q2/3 [----]. Kill it or P3"
X Link 2024-10-27T09:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@bioinvestor24 @A_May_MD @semodough Where do we know LLY concretely made a BO offer from To me it makes no sense for either LLY or NVO to make BO to mcap like VKTX has now. I dont think either of them will make any BO of assets in P2/3. They will do preclinical and P1"
X Link 2024-10-27T10:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@GilaMonstrum @A_May_MD @semodough Yes NB is known for working within this space the last [--] years. Together with NVO they have the largest amount of data knowledge in the Amylin space. $Zeal also worked many years on Amylin"
X Link 2024-10-27T12:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Another record for Zebound. [------] vs former record at [------] Mounjaro at [------] (record 425800) Wegovy was [------] (record at 226600) Ozempic was [------] (record 594900) At least in US $NVO is currently lacking the needed accelerated growth. Although the rest of the world might accelerate further with new launches $LLY Mounjaro TRx/NRx scripts for the week of 10/18/2024 were 413300/217800 (vs. 418400/220300 last week) per IQVIA data. Zepbound TRx/NRx scripts were 175800/128100 (vs. 174200/127600 last week). $LLY Mounjaro TRx/NRx scripts for the week of 10/18/2024 were 413300/217800 (vs."
X Link 2024-10-28T14:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"It objectively difficult to see the reasons for $LLY up with 53% this year versus $NVO 11%. NVO definitely hit a miss with Monlunabant. And LLY currently expanding their GLP1 portfolio faster than NVO. But NVO is still the largest of them. NVO is though higher risk currently since they will report first P3 with CagriSema and FTC judgment of Catalent deal. Depending on the direction of those two event we could see the share price move plus 10%"
X Link 2024-10-28T15:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Sports_bios Interesting with an oral small molecule GIP Antagonist. Thats definitely a first in class. And with Maritide data in mind then this asset all the suddenly becomes quite interesting to see data"
X Link 2024-10-29T16:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"And now it begins. #Wegovy is now listed as available in all doses at FDA site. $NVO pressuring the compounding companies https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/drugshortages/dsp_ActiveIngredientDetails.cfmAI=Semaglutide%20Injection&st=c https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/drugshortages/dsp_ActiveIngredientDetails.cfmAI=Semaglutide%20Injection&st=c"
X Link 2024-10-30T15:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""While all doses of Wegovy and Ozempic are now listed as available they have not been removed from the regulator's shortage list.""
X Link 2024-10-30T15:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVO p3 MASH with Wegovy. Not exactly killer data but still significant and yet another indication to put on their label https://t.co/089W97jcdv Novo Nordisk A/S: Semaglutide [---] mg demonstrates superior improvement in both liver fibrosis and MASH resolution in the ESSENCE trial @NovoNordiskES https://t.co/gO4Bc815u3 https://t.co/089W97jcdv Novo Nordisk A/S: Semaglutide [---] mg demonstrates superior improvement in both liver fibrosis and MASH resolution in the ESSENCE trial @NovoNordiskES https://t.co/gO4Bc815u3"
X Link 2024-11-01T14:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@bioinvestor24 Well there IS an oral peptide API challenges. LLY does not have any oral peptide at the market. Only $NVO has #Rybelsus Theres a reason BL just mentioned oral VK2735 is only about 20% of the total value. You simply cant scale BIG"
X Link 2024-11-02T10:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"We dont have to agree 🙂 But BL comments fits perfectly with the API challenge. If he didnt se any API challenges he would have put the value of oral way higher. $NVO is using 4-5 tons to serve about [---] million on oral Rybelsus. With top dose of 9/14mg. Commercial oral VK2735 will be above 100mg per day to match 15mg SC [----]. That would take 40-50 tons to serve the same amount of people. The half life is longer than semaglutide. But only 50% ish. So going from once daily to once weekly will likely minimise the weight gain compared to hard stop dosing. To my knowledge the current largest CDMO"
X Link 2024-11-02T15:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes GZR18 is definitely one of the interesting to follow. Its the first GLP1/GIP to deliver infrequent dosing data. Very interesting to see the side effects And also important to remember this is China trial. China use lower BMI to define obesity. So it would most likely reach a bit bigger WL in a US/Europe trial with higher average BMI trial participants"
X Link 2024-11-03T08:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Youre absolutely right. As mono GLP1 GZR18 is anything but potent when they dose up to 30mg. So thats their downside regarding demand for API. But definitely looks like more effective than semaglutide On the other hand HRS9531 is very potent with only 6mg top dosing vs 15mg for Tirzepatide and vk2735"
X Link 2024-11-03T17:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"As I have mentioned before Im LONG in $vktx. Its not even possible to short VKTX at the trading platform I use. What does $NVO CagriSema and Amycretin has to do with oral [----] data And what is insulting in this post. I dont know about you but Im always constructive critical to my investment. You (I) always has to be able to argument both sides. Otherwise you (I) have blind spots"
X Link 2024-11-05T17:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$NVO developing a once monthly version of semaglutide $NVO made a deal with Ascendis this Monday. A deal where novo gets access to Ascendis technology to make a prolonged release of API and thereby only dose once per month and up to once per [--] month. The lead program is a once monthly version of semaglutide. Novo will not say how fare it is in development. But Im fairly sure that its just about to start the final preclinical ADME tox studies before starting P1. That would meanP1 end of [----]. Novo can then choose [--] development directions. 1) A short program where they go for non-inferiority vs"
X Link 2024-11-06T11:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$NVO released Q3 with big surprise on larger wegovy sales than what analyst expected. The market expected 15.9B Danish kroner($2.3B) vs actual 17.3B kroner ($2.5B) $NVO developing a once monthly version of semaglutide $NVO made a deal with Ascendis this Monday. A deal where novo gets access to Ascendis technology to make a prolonged release of API and thereby only dose once per month and up to once per [--] month. The lead program is a $NVO developing a once monthly version of semaglutide $NVO made a deal with Ascendis this Monday. A deal where novo gets access to Ascendis technology to make a"
X Link 2024-11-06T11:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Misplaced comment on [----] "guidens" They dont guide before feb [----] when they release [----] result. And yet the CFO answered a Q about some insight to [----] capacity/guidance. And he did an odd comparison to the actual ekstra volume/revenue in [----] and expected in [----]. And if [----] would grow with the same extra volume increase then it would implied a growth in the "high teens". Thats what made the floor disappear on the share price. They will grow significant more than high teens next year. Higher growth than in [----] (midpoint 25%)"
X Link 2024-11-06T13:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$NVO need Q4 wegovy sales to jump more than $1B. close to $4B in Q4 A different story in obesity from Novo Nordisk today with Wegovy Q3 sales beating expectations vs Lilly's miss last week. $NVO $LLY https://t.co/KAAjz5rRnl A different story in obesity from Novo Nordisk today with Wegovy Q3 sales beating expectations vs Lilly's miss last week. $NVO $LLY https://t.co/KAAjz5rRnl"
X Link 2024-11-06T14:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MichelleCardel @ObesitySociety $NVO has to my knowledge not filed for 25/50mg obesity in US. Only for T2D in EU. So for some reasons they hold 25/50mg Rybelsus back in US"
X Link 2024-11-07T11:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Q4 numbers for Wegovy will be up more than 100% vs Q4 [----]. Might cross $3B Both $LLY and $NVO is spending big time on building new supply chain capacity. Both companies have initiated capacity expansions for more than $20B since [----]. If NVO gets thumbs up from FTC to buy Catalent then they have invested more than $20B in less than two years. Dont expect NVO to get aggressive in M&A. Its not in their DNA to buy big late stage companies"
X Link 2024-11-07T19:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The ovner of $NVO is novo holding. They have more than $160B investments in more than [---] companies. So lots of money flow back to investments in early stage biotech and other areas Novo Holdings closed [----] with Total Assets under Management of DKK [----] billion (149 billion) up from DKK [---] billion (108 billion) in [----]. The Novo Holdings Investment Portfolio comprises Life Science Investments (Seed Investments Venture Investments Planetary Health Investments Asia Investments Growth Investments and Principal Investments) making up 51% of the portfolio and Capital Investments 49% of the"
X Link 2024-11-07T21:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ImmaWexler @yaireinhorn @WSJ @NovoNordiskLive @EliLillyandCo They are getting there. In Q3 semaglutide (Ozempic Wegovy and Rybelsus) sold for about $7.8B"
X Link 2024-11-07T21:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Thats just the small public available AI computer. $NVO is most likely going to have an in-house AI 10x of that one. But they have also invested more than $2B in developing a quantum computer. As well as $200 million investment in small quantum computer startups https://nqcp.ku.dk/news/ https://nqcp.ku.dk/news/"
X Link 2024-11-07T22:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing