# ![@Rationalmind__ Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1954093224718450688.png) @Rationalmind__ Therationalmind

Therationalmind posts on X about ai, business, $hims, if you the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1954093224718450688/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1954093224718450688/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] +2,064%
- [--] Month [------] +419%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1954093224718450688/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1954093224718450688/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +221%
- [--] Month [---] +125%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1954093224718450688/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1954093224718450688/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +14%
- [--] Month [---] +180%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1954093224718450688/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1954093224718450688/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  [finance](/list/finance)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [social networks](/list/social-networks)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands)  [countries](/list/countries)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) 

**Social topic influence**
[ai](/topic/ai), [business](/topic/business), [$hims](/topic/$hims), [if you](/topic/if-you), [in the](/topic/in-the), [$csu](/topic/$csu), [money](/topic/money), [$mstr](/topic/$mstr), [$btc](/topic/$btc), [meta](/topic/meta)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@wealthyreadings](/creator/undefined) [@qualityinvest5](/creator/undefined) [@dimitrynakhla](/creator/undefined) [@nataninvesting](/creator/undefined) [@capexandchill](/creator/undefined) [@pandadaytona](/creator/undefined) [@toninafairvalue](/creator/undefined) [@strategymaxi](/creator/undefined) [@liebermanaustin](/creator/undefined) [@tacticzh](/creator/undefined) [@dubbiosismo](/creator/undefined) [@fiscalai](/creator/undefined) [@hatapengar](/creator/undefined) [@alc2022](/creator/undefined) [@travishoium](/creator/undefined) [@steveonspeed](/creator/undefined) [@billackman](/creator/undefined) [@bdinvestingg](/creator/undefined) [@elijahcablerf](/creator/undefined) [@holysmokas](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)](/topic/$hims) [Strategy (MSTR)](/topic/$mstr) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/$btc) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Netflix Inc (NFLX)](/topic/$nflx) [Ferrari N.V. (RACE)](/topic/$race) [monday.com Ltd. (MNDY)](/topic/$mndy) [Duolingo, Inc.  (DUOL)](/topic/$duol) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Copart, Inc. (CPRT)](/topic/$cprt) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [MercadoLibre Inc (MELI)](/topic/$meli) [Now Coin (NOW)](/topic/$now) [S&P Global Inc (SPGI)](/topic/$spgi) [Msci Inc (MSCI)](/topic/$msci) [Nebius Group N.V. Class A Ordinary Shares (NBIS)](/topic/$nbis) [Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)](/topic/$adbe) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Alibaba Group (BABA)](/topic/$baba) [Iris Energy Limited (IREN)](/topic/$iren) [Remitly Global, Inc. (RELY)](/topic/$rely)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"$MSCI looks strong here. EV/EBIT nearly at [--] Yrs low while its Operating Cash Flow per Share more than doubled from [--] years ago. Plus a FCF Yield at 3.5%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/1999811031111995902)  2025-12-13T11:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Copart $CPRT showing incremental Yields in FCF and Earnings while the stock price is falling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/1999813987878273219)  2025-12-13T12:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"A simple $HIMS sensitivity analysis over [--] Yrs now that the hype is not so high. Current Data: LTM revenue $2.1B Stock price $37 Assumptions: Average revenue yearly growth: 20% Year5 net margin: anywhere between 10% and 20% From there every combo of margin final P/E gives you a different 5-year CAGR of expected returns. Read it like this: If HIMS ends up at 15% net margin and a 25x P/E Im underwriting highteens CAGR. If it only gets to 10% margin and the market pays 20x Im basically buying a 5% bond with startup risk. If they crush it (20% margin 3540x) Im underwriting 30% CAGR and I know Im"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/1999873078176727135)  2025-12-13T16:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"A simple $RACE 5year sensitivity. What Ferrari is Ultraluxury brand with intentionally limited volumes huge pricing power and a waitlist that acts like a moat. Equity story = scarcity + brand + pricing more than units Current data EPS (TTM) $10.4 Share price $367 Assumptions EPS growth: 818% per year for the next [--] years Exit P/E: 2540x From there every combo of EPS CAGR final P/E gives you a different 5year CAGR of expected returns. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2000221614718300354 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2000221614718300354"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2000221614718300354)  2025-12-14T15:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@fiscal_ai Just posted a valuation model with expected return on [--] years based on EPS growth and final P/E. The fall looks nice but still risky"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2000222728280760681)  2025-12-14T15:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Nebius $NBIS is the cleanest example of AI infra risk vs reward right now. Trading around $81 after a monster run from sub$20 and a nasty drawdown from $140+ Bull case: real AI infra hyperscalerstyle growth multiyear capex that could turn into a cash machine if management executes. Bear case: brutal volatility dilution/convert risk and a market thats already crowded with AI tourists. If you size it like a lottery ticket instead of a bond the asymmetry starts to look a lot more interesting. On my side just opened again a position"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2000583511237968123)  2025-12-15T15:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"MicroStrategy is a leveraged BTC wrapper: hundreds of thousands of BTC on the balance sheet equity that occasionally trades close to or even below its BTC NAV and a management team using equity/debt to keep stacking. MARA is the BTC miner treasury hybrid: one of the largest corporate BTC holders plus a scaled mining operation that keeps adding coins to the stack"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2000922172177440931)  2025-12-16T13:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$MARA and $MSTR are leveraged BTC bets trading at low multiples to NAV right now. Here's why that timing matters. MicroStrategy $MSTR Holds 650k BTC (largest corporate stack). BTC NAV per share: $450500 (depending on exact BTC price). Current stock: trading at 0.7/0.8x NAV. You're buying BTC + Saylor's financing machine at a 1530% discount to the coins alone. MARA Holdings $MARA Holds 50k+ BTC + scaled mining production. BTC NAV per share: $1215. Current stock: trading at 0.8/0.9x NAV. You're getting the BTC treasury plus hashrate growth and infrastructure at a 1020% discount"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2000922174366924820)  2025-12-16T13:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Both trade below 1x their BTC NAV; meaning the market is effectively saying: "This BTC is worth less than spot plus you're getting the operating business for free (or negative)." When BTC rips: NAV per share explodes higher The NAV discount closes (to 1x or premium) You get 23x the spot BTC move"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2000922176375980509)  2025-12-16T13:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"In this case I don't need to love the businesses. I just need: ✅ BTC growing ✅ Market eventually pays full price for corporate BTC stacks ✅ These managements keep stacking sats Risk: Massive. Both are high beta volatility machines. Edge: Currently trading like BTC is going to zero. This is concentrated asymmetry: basically you pay [--] cents for $1 of BTC + optionality"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2000922178494025987)  2025-12-16T13:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"A simple $NVDA 5year sensitivity which means your 5year CAGR return if that row and that column both happen based on: Current data EPS (TTM) $4.0 Share price $171 FY25 revenue $130.5B net income $72.9B net margin 56%. Assumptions EPS growth: 1030% per year for [--] years Exit P/E: 2540x (vs 42x today) The job is to be brutally clear about which box youre actually betting on and whether that payoff really compensates you for the risk that this is as good as it ever gets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2001588441792831625)  2025-12-18T09:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@StrategyMaxi I have $MSTR too but lets not be so blind to call it the best equity to own"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2001627173833298110)  2025-12-18T12:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@StrategyMaxi but no come on Its like comparing a bird and a plane because their both in the sky😅MSTR is like derivate on BTC which is not even their product yet so not comparable in term of risk to equity of company selling products or services"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2001689181093802277)  2025-12-18T16:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$UBER is one of the cleanest risk/reward plays in modern infrastructure and people dont realize that Tesla and Waymo are more likely to feed its moat than kill it. First of all Uber isnt a taxi app. Its a global logistics & demand network with: - Rides: dominant liquidity in most major markets - millions of drivers hundreds of millions of riders insane route and pricing data. - Delivery: Uber Eats + grocery + convenience = second engine that monetizes the same users and map infrastructure. - Freight / B2B: early but strategic turning Uber into a logistics operating system not just consumer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2002302353697849551)  2025-12-20T08:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@WealthyReadings Thats the beauty of this situation if you believe in $BTC also other Miners offer really good opportunities and potentially with less risks than $MSTR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2002671652673609880)  2025-12-21T09:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Since today its the hot topic: lets see how interest-rate cuts hit stocks (and why cuts = bullish is lazy thinking). 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2003115298598339032)  2025-12-22T14:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"4/ The biggest winners from cuts are usually long-duration equities. Companies where most value sits far out in the future (many growth/tech names) are more sensitive to changes in r because more of their value is in distant cash flows"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2003115307557371975)  2025-12-22T14:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"5/ Cuts also move stocks through earnings not just multiples: - Lower interest expense (refinancing tailwind especially for levered firms). - Easier credit conditions (demand can recover). - Higher asset prices can improve consumer and business confidence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2003115310254346520)  2025-12-22T14:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"6/ But there are losers too. Banks can get margin pressure if the yield curve flattens or deposit costs dont fall as fast and defensive sectors can lag if the cut sparks risk-on behavior elsewhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2003115312791875691)  2025-12-22T14:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"7/ The real tell is why cuts are happening: Good cuts = inflation falling growth OK ERP stable multiple expansion + earnings hold up. Bad cuts = growth breaking defaults rising ERP spikes value trap rallies then rolls"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2003115315010711557)  2025-12-22T14:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$MELI this trend convinved me to buy. Studying the company right now seems an easy buy similar to $AMZN at 160"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2003401624493162599)  2025-12-23T09:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@WealthyReadings Argument a bitotherwise its kinda a null post"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2006081899438002664)  2025-12-30T19:16Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@WealthyReadings @hatapengar I mean you apply just a 20% revenue growth to Hims and if it becomes profitable with more than 5% margin you have a great return so I dont understand the worries on GLP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2006321217033187646)  2025-12-31T11:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"If I hear another time about Market equilibrium theory where all is already priced in I swear I ll block that accountno sense"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2006321725542404234)  2025-12-31T11:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"The slowdown in Revenue growth is Quarter over Quarter not meaning that 20%. Rev growth Yearly is at risk their previsions are way more optimistic than 20% actually. Still on my side in happy about this situation so that people investing in HIMS are less fanatics and more real investors hopefully https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006337133561217279 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006337133561217279"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2006337133561217279)  2025-12-31T12:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@alc2022 Well people like you are also part of the reason why Hims is falling sharing no math based estimation and creating FOMO based on nothingso you fuel people obsessed and fanatics based on nothing which then sell or are cooked by derivates or way too much exposure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2006347116285960594)  2025-12-31T12:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Starting naked my [----]. Showing my current portfolio allocation after more than 40% return in [----]. Consider that I am currentluy under a special regime in EU where I dont pay capital gains so I move often the holdings when I feel I have better oppotunities (risk/reward wise). Right now my allocation is super aggressive as towards year end I saw several companies with crazy potential returns with a beat up narrative ( $MARA and $MSTR for Bitcoin expsoure with MNAV 1) $HIMS with a valjuation that assumes a growth lover than 20% rev which I see difficult; $NBIS similar situation where the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2006713982854263274)  2026-01-01T13:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"This year I will slowly going in deep dive in each of these positions talking about business model market and valuation Starting next week with $HIMS Starting naked my [----]. Showing my current portfolio allocation after more than 40% return in [----]. Consider that I am currentluy under a special regime in EU where I dont pay capital gains so I move often the holdings when I feel I have better oppotunities (risk/reward wise). https://t.co/YnEYRY9LiC Starting naked my [----]. Showing my current portfolio allocation after more than 40% return in [----]. Consider that I am currentluy under a special"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2007067307412173082)  2026-01-02T12:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@DimitryNakhla Absolutely a good deal especially when you are clear about the opportunity of $UBER $UBER is one of the cleanest risk/reward plays in modern infrastructure and people dont realize that Tesla and Waymo are more likely to feed its moat than kill it. First of all Uber isnt a taxi app. Its a global logistics & demand network with: - Rides: dominant liquidity $UBER is one of the cleanest risk/reward plays in modern infrastructure and people dont realize that Tesla and Waymo are more likely to feed its moat than kill it. First of all Uber isnt a taxi app. Its a global logistics &"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2007156808184692918)  2026-01-02T18:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@WealthyReadings $pdd safer than $baba"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2007157802570326297)  2026-01-02T18:31Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@WealthyReadings Im comparing [--] huge Chinese players $Baba is great but follows AI growth narrative at this point I prefer other company that benefits from AI continous growth. While $PDD is in a different sector with fundamentals that suggest a crazy undervaluation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2007167682031038827)  2026-01-02T19:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Current watchlis of stock that have great chances to outperform the Market and I am currently evaluating: 1) $CPRT 2) $NOMD 3) $MNDY 4) $TMDX 5) $TSMC 6) $PDD 7) $UBER 8) $CROX 9) $MSCI 10) $TOST"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2008214611720327415)  2026-01-05T16:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@nataninvesting Great call and even more great ability to hold till this point. Do yoy think now is time to trim a bit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2009186049067450642)  2026-01-08T08:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Deep dive on $MELI 🧠 If you are interested or invested in Mercado Libre you better read. First of all MercadoLibre ($MELI) is not just "the Amazon of Latin America." That is a lazy comparison. If we wanna trhow comparison then it is more an Amazon PayPal and a better version of FedEx rolled into one operating in one of the most hostile logistical and financial environments on Earth. The company has evolved from an ecommerce marketplace into a digital infrastructure utility for Latin America by solving the region's two biggest friction points: moving goods (logistics) and moving money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2009237277113823429)  2026-01-08T12:14Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@QualityInvest5 I see [------] risk that Vibe Coding will pose a threat to it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2009246454074765773)  2026-01-08T12:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@CapexAndChill Thank you for the mention from the Mr $MELI himself means a lot"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2009348644580020289)  2026-01-08T19:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"I read an interesting article the orher day where was shown how $UBER is actually making 60% of his profit from 5/6 cities (NYC LA London So Paulo Toronto Paris) implying that the risk is not on the platform itslef but on what happens in these cities. For example a Waymo that would strongly compete with UBER in LA will still create a lot damages to the Company. Then would this aggressive competition make sense for $GOOG Problaby not but its another story. What is your take on this https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009624828156707107 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009624828156707107"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2009624828156707107)  2026-01-09T13:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@QualityInvest5 Great names. Maybe you can add also some "boring" names such as $CPRT $CSU $WM and $PGR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2009625862178767336)  2026-01-09T13:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"🧠 Thread Circle of Competence: Why Brilliant Investors Go Broke Overnight And How You Won't 1/4 Let me tell you a story that haunts every investor. Dr. Smith successful dentist hears "tech boom" at a dinner party. Buys at $11/share. Six months later Company bankrupt. $50000 gone. Fast forward [----]. Your cousin sees Reddit pumping GameStop. Throws in life savings. Weeks later account cut in half. What connects these disasters They both stepped outside their Circle of Competence. Charlie Munger's brutal investing filter. Let's trace exactly how human psychology + sociology create this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2009678974293815436)  2026-01-09T17:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"2/4 Step 1: The Brain's Fatal Flaw Dr. Smith knew teeth not tech. Your cousin knew memes not market dynamics. Both suffered Dunning Kruger: beginners wildly overestimate abilities. Charlie Munger's solution "Know your circle of competence." Simple: only invest where you have: ✅ Deep industry knowledge ✅ Predictable customer behavior ✅ Stable competitive sociology Warren Buffett skipped the entire dot com bubble. "I don't understand tech." Sat on cash. Others lost 90%. He compounded at 20% CAGR. Humans aren't equations. They're fear machines in packs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2009678976663367884)  2026-01-09T17:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


".but it's also $UBER precise vulnerability to localized shocks that cascade. For example in SF/NYC: Robotaxis now are 10% SF pilot rides. Waymo bleeds $0.50 1/mile vs Uber's $0.20/0.30 take rate. So a potential risk is that AVs hit 30% density and cities mandate "driverless priority" Uber subsidizes FCF to defend the core while Waymo scales losses for the short term. And a potential hit like this in NYC is a big hit to UBER as their are diversified geographically but concentrated on profits. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009681032811823604"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2009681032811823604)  2026-01-09T17:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Sure $NVDA is no longer a chip company. Its a full stack AI factory platform: GPU compute + networking + systems + a software ecosystem that dictates developer behavior and datacenter architecture. Thus we will not get a X5 on our investment in one year and I would expect the market to consider this in evakuating the company but wait to call it overvalued. Comparing Forward EV/EBIT it with other MAG [--] ( $GOOGL $AAPL $MSFT) it seems even unfair at how actually undervalued is especially when you consider its growth compared to others. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010083293861912762"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2010083293861912762)  2026-01-10T20:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@LiebermanAustin Nah is actually starting to become overraction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2010759952189755897)  2026-01-12T17:05Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"LLM models (not even AI which per se its aleready a n error in statement as AI is also used by $DUOL) cannot substitute Duolingo functionalities for the moment in general the trust gaming functionality etc. is not gonna be substitute.is like saying my willpower can be enough to not use social media/drink etc. but you still have OPAL apps or similar or pharma drugs.we need to separate functionalities replication from service. And now metrics wise $DUOL is approaching a forward EV/Sales of 5.which is pretty good considering the Team and growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2010774565148881151)  2026-01-12T18:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Its all good and all but you were one the first to talk about $GOOGL disrupted by AI before some super investors started to pick it and changed your mind (which is still pretty good probably even more difficult behaviour) just I dont understand now all this communication where you wanna look like the oracle of Google https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010783655979819435 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010783655979819435"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2010783655979819435)  2026-01-12T18:39Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@TravisHoium You are right I guess Dev Kantesaria Chris Hohn Bill Ackman Li Lu Pat Dorsey that have 90% or more of their portfolio in 6/7 stocks are gamblers.but yeah how could I contradict your personal experience"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2010784988413714652)  2026-01-12T18:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"If youre staring at $BTC 1H candles youre basically doing macro + leverage weather forecasting. The signal lives in structural metrics: issuance halving cycle timing and supply liquidity. 1) The only fundamental schedule BTC has is HALVING Bitcoins issuance is programmatic: every [------] blocks the block subsidy halves. We already had the 4th halving on April [--] [----] (reward cut to [-----] BTC) and the next halving is expected around April [----] when subsidy drops again to [------] BTC. What does it mean the market can panic short term but the new supply flow is mathematically declining independent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2011027951580532846)  2026-01-13T10:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"WTF Im reading ahaha😅 feeling sad to be also an $HIMS investors if these are also shareholders This is very true This is very true"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2011519755619090819)  2026-01-14T19:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Good take on the $BTC and $MSTR situation here more than ever price will dictate sentiment but we are also moving towards institutional holders (especially for MSTR) which means less volatilityinteresting set up $BTC has bottomed. $MSTR's bottom was the day of that post. And I stand by what I said. You dont need [--] trades to make a year. You just need one well-timed conviction play. This will be mine. You'll soon see everyone talk about $MSTR. About how obvious the trade was. And https://t.co/xyKO6UJOzu $BTC has bottomed. $MSTR's bottom was the day of that post. And I stand by what I said."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2011533731232890951)  2026-01-14T20:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"This is reeeeeally interesting $CSU: 5% FCF Yield and Forward P/E [--] $MNDY: Forward FCF Yield 5% and EPS growth 30% $NOW: consolidate MOAT and EPS growth 25% I am honestly believe these companies have a bright future looking forward to buy at least one of them. Software stocks down big this year: $FTNT Fortinet: -17% $WDAY Workday: -21% $CRM Salesforce: -26% $ADBE Adobe: -26% $CSU Constellation Software: -29% $DOCU Docusign: -31% $NOW ServiceNow: -35% $MNDY Monday: -41% $TEAM Atlassian: -46% $HUBS Hubspot: -51% https://t.co/1cAIbxEbrI Software stocks down big this year: $FTNT Fortinet: -17%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2011769330841911306)  2026-01-15T11:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@nataninvesting BTW just added on $PDD below [---] seems a packed present"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2011769447414186311)  2026-01-15T11:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"What I meant here simply lets answer who owns $BTC and $MSTR 1) Who owns $MSTR As of now ownership almost split between institutions and retail which is unusual for a company this volatile. By mid [----] there were 1500+ institutional owners holding over 140M shares indicating growing institutional presence. A recent breakdown puts roughly 46% of MSTR in institutional hands and 48% held by retail with insiders and others making up the rest. So youre no longer talking about a meme stock owned mostly by punters; youre talking about a vehicle that pension funds hedge funds and family offices"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2011810276866212183)  2026-01-15T14:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@WealthyReadings I hope so we need noise to have a real rally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2011810500674212051)  2026-01-15T14:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"I am gonna get some hate for this.but why to focus on $ADBE when you have potential real Moats company still growing that are falling down Few names: $META $PDD $NOW $CSU $MNDY (here no real moat ok)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2011811002250076236)  2026-01-15T14:41Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$ADBE can make millionaires for real Its simple. If a billionaire invested in $ADBE would have become a millionaire"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2012149524756930894)  2026-01-16T13:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"There is a big difference in finding a stock you wanna invest and then believe in uour thesis. Pretty good example below holding $MRNA through really low moments but firmly believing in the initial analysis until the business finally started to growth. Great work @nataninvesting Congratulations to everyone who shorted $MRNA at $25 with a negative enterprise value 👏 Theres clearly no limit to human stupidity. (Now the stock is not far from a $50 fair value) https://t.co/uynyytuPQy Congratulations to everyone who shorted $MRNA at $25 with a negative enterprise value 👏 Theres clearly no limit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2012477112259576059)  2026-01-17T10:48Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@WealthyReadings Pills is just of the "arrows" at disposal of $NVO; their growth alone was suggesting undervaluation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2013556713165647942)  2026-01-20T10:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"The YoY R growth expetations were always above 10% without considering new drugs in the pipelines thats what I meant with undervalued. So even without the pill (which was still part of a possibility whihc the market was not fatoring) you have other elements that implied an undervaluation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2013563332540666093)  2026-01-20T10:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Price has always written the narrative for both $BTC and $MSTR. When they go up the story magically becomes institutional validation digital gold genius treasury strategy. When they go down it flips to bubble leverage existential risk. The fundamentals barely change; the narrative tracks the chart not the other way around https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013893008341467293 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013893008341467293"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2013893008341467293)  2026-01-21T08:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Hi Daniel I think you are confusing product with content. Yes this confirms that AI can replicate parts of what Duolingo does and thats exactly why the comment is backwards: if your moat langauge courses you never had a moat. $DUOL bet is that content is the cheapest input not the product https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014013922915868750 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014013922915868750"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014013922915868750)  2026-01-21T16:35Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@SteveOnSpeed I ll stop being a millionaire in few seconds I'll put it on red or a growth stock and in other few rounds I ll be back at square one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014031919885808114)  2026-01-21T17:46Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@BillAckman In credit terms: colleges have been selling AAA dreams with CCC job placement"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014071293990043945)  2026-01-21T20:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@QualityInvest5 being an $HIMS investor is perennal ticket to Disneyland"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014077181324919042)  2026-01-21T20:46Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@QualityInvest5 Holdingv it together with $MSTR and $BTC I could open my theme park"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014246310719770672)  2026-01-22T07:58Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@LiebermanAustin AI fears overlook $NOW momentum: 55x adoption growth $500M+ ACV and accelerating 20%+ revenue. Enterprise workflows remain critical while capex caution is temporary. This repricing aligns fundamentals with valuation. Worth monitoring for entry as Q1 catalysts approach"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014248986304040975)  2026-01-22T08:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"I think you are confusing product with content. Yes this confirms that AI can replicate and accelerate parts of what Duolingo does and thats exactly why the comment is backwards: if your moat is langauge courses you never had a moat. $DUOL bet is that content is the cheapest input not the product https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014323963455733794 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014323963455733794"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014323963455733794)  2026-01-22T13:07Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@QualityInvest5 Yes but FCF for a growth stock is not really relevant no"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014324268180328493)  2026-01-22T13:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@bdinvestingg Safe picks difficult to miss with them💪"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014324834856014315)  2026-01-22T13:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@TacticzH That's spot on Holding ASML through the noise is the Buffett play. "Our favorite holding period is forever" and $ASML fits: EUV monopoly moat 52% gross margins 15% [----] rev growth (Q4 guide 9.2-9.8B) [----] not below '25 levels. Having said this I trimmed a bit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014338911401652321)  2026-01-22T14:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Ok lets discuss. GPU rentals spiking Great.for [--] months. Then supply floods (Nvidia shipping 5M+ H100s '26) prices crash 50%+ and your "shortage" turns into capex carnage. Thats the potential problem. $NBIS $20B backlog Neo's burning $2M+/day on power. One Microsoft scope creep = dilution city. $IREN $9.7B Power advantage until Texas grid brownouts hit 10GW AI load. Contracts don't pay if ERCOT pulls the plug. $CRWV $55B "Extreme shortage" = first to dilute shareholders when Blackwell ramps. Hyperscalers don't backlog forever. $CIFR $8.5B AWS/Google pivot to owned clusters = your "HPC moat""  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014339851387117855)  2026-01-22T14:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@ElijahCablerF Since becoming an $HIMS investor I dont feel anymore the need of doing sport bets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014343493032800661)  2026-01-22T14:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Terry Smith's half stat gotcha is cute but pulverizes under basic finance scrutiny like citing GDP growth without inflation or survivorship bias. [----] P/E 5.3x to [----] 34x Sure "only" 2.3% p.a. from multiple expansion. if you ignore the 6.7x nominal GDP growth 17% inflation adjusted earnings expansion and the fact that [----] S&P was 90% railroads/industrials that got obliterated by autos/aviation (Just look at Dow [--] of 1917: [--] delisted by 1999). A more accurate math woul be that 11.6% CAGR embeds 4% dividends (now 1.3%) 5% real EPS growth (multi-decade tailwind from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014344616342966726)  2026-01-22T14:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@QualityInvest5 Just made a post on $HIMS at the end Amazon rarely gets something done in these extra projects $HIMS: From FinTwit Meme to Telehealth Monster Picture this: [--] months ago Hims & Hers was "that hair loss stock." Fast forward to [----] stock up 142% YTD 30% short interest Reddit calling it the "next GME." But behind the noise A compounding machine most investors completely https://t.co/rz7H8kSLrI $HIMS: From FinTwit Meme to Telehealth Monster Picture this: [--] months ago Hims & Hers was "that hair loss stock." Fast forward to [----] stock up 142% YTD 30% short interest Reddit calling it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014438649580990737)  2026-01-22T20:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@HolySmokas Just made a post on $HIMS that Im sure you would like $HIMS: From FinTwit Meme to Telehealth Monster Picture this: [--] months ago Hims & Hers was "that hair loss stock." Fast forward to [----] stock up 142% YTD 30% short interest Reddit calling it the "next GME." But behind the noise A compounding machine most investors completely https://t.co/rz7H8kSLrI $HIMS: From FinTwit Meme to Telehealth Monster Picture this: [--] months ago Hims & Hers was "that hair loss stock." Fast forward to [----] stock up 142% YTD 30% short interest Reddit calling it the "next GME." But behind the noise A"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014438811988643959)  2026-01-22T20:43Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@WheelieInvestor Made a post on $HIMS that Im sure you are gonna like it https://x.com/rationalmind__/status/2014352657981260121s=46&t=qWUgtu82UA-DImxY6dl8fw $HIMS: From FinTwit Meme to Telehealth Monster Picture this: [--] months ago Hims & Hers was "that hair loss stock." Fast forward to [----] stock up 142% YTD 30% short interest Reddit calling it the "next GME." But behind the noise A compounding machine most investors completely https://t.co/rz7H8kSLrI https://x.com/rationalmind__/status/2014352657981260121s=46&t=qWUgtu82UA-DImxY6dl8fw $HIMS: From FinTwit Meme to Telehealth Monster Picture"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014440146129584585)  2026-01-22T20:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@EndicottInvests Dont know if Im used to green anymore. BTW just made a post on $HIMS that Im sure you would like https://x.com/rationalmind__/status/2014352657981260121s=46&t=qWUgtu82UA-DImxY6dl8fw $HIMS: From FinTwit Meme to Telehealth Monster Picture this: [--] months ago Hims & Hers was "that hair loss stock." Fast forward to [----] stock up 142% YTD 30% short interest Reddit calling it the "next GME." But behind the noise A compounding machine most investors completely https://t.co/rz7H8kSLrI https://x.com/rationalmind__/status/2014352657981260121s=46&t=qWUgtu82UA-DImxY6dl8fw $HIMS: From"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014453046323880052)  2026-01-22T21:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Gubloinvestor Dont know if Im used to green anymore 🥹BTW just made a post on $HIMS that Im sure you would like https://x.com/rationalmind__/status/2014352657981260121s=46&t=qWUgtu82UA-DImxY6dl8fw $HIMS: From FinTwit Meme to Telehealth Monster Picture this: [--] months ago Hims & Hers was "that hair loss stock." Fast forward to [----] stock up 142% YTD 30% short interest Reddit calling it the "next GME." But behind the noise A compounding machine most investors completely https://t.co/rz7H8kSLrI https://x.com/rationalmind__/status/2014352657981260121s=46&t=qWUgtu82UA-DImxY6dl8fw $HIMS: From"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014453197729845611)  2026-01-22T21:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@lyronctk And that Morganis Morgan Freeman"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014453456589737987)  2026-01-22T21:41Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@The_RockTrading Dont take away hope from us😅 BTW I did a post on $HIMS that I am sure you would appreciate: https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014352657981260121s=20 $HIMS: From FinTwit Meme to Telehealth Monster Picture this: [--] months ago Hims & Hers was "that hair loss stock." Fast forward to [----] stock up 142% YTD 30% short interest Reddit calling it the "next GME." But behind the noise A compounding machine most investors completely https://t.co/rz7H8kSLrI https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014352657981260121s=20 $HIMS: From FinTwit Meme to Telehealth Monster Picture this: [--] months"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014606162151256454)  2026-01-23T07:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Central banks have been buying [----] tonnes per year for three straight years (20222024) which is a very different regime vs. the pre-2022 400500t norm. But the parabolic price action does raise big drawdown risk and if real yields re accelerate higher gold can retrace hard. I wouldnt FOMO https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014620233407832409 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014620233407832409"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014620233407832409)  2026-01-23T08:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@himshouse I made a post on $HIMS that you guys would appreciate;) https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014352657981260121s=20 $HIMS: From FinTwit Meme to Telehealth Monster Picture this: [--] months ago Hims & Hers was "that hair loss stock." Fast forward to [----] stock up 142% YTD 30% short interest Reddit calling it the "next GME." But behind the noise A compounding machine most investors completely https://t.co/rz7H8kSLrI https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014352657981260121s=20 $HIMS: From FinTwit Meme to Telehealth Monster Picture this: [--] months ago Hims & Hers was "that hair loss stock.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014695836735746128)  2026-01-23T13:44Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@StockBookworm Monster holdings where you able to have good entry point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2015084802857124284)  2026-01-24T15:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Which one is better stock A or stock B This is one of the worst questions in investing and one of the most popular. Whats worse is that most of the time people are comparing totally different animals: A volatile small-cap vs a sleepy dividend giant A cyclical commodity play vs a highmultiple compounder A 3year trade vs a 30year ownership story (Example comparing $TSLA to $COLA) And then they expect a oneword answer. But you cant say really which stock is better without knowing the owner. Whats your time horizon [--] months [--] years [--] years Whats your liquidity need Are you buying a house in 2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2015333154798669880)  2026-01-25T07:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"This post is what happens when you mistake a weekly chart of $BTC for a market cycle and confuse liquidity flows with collapse. For example if $1.7B outflows = bubble collaps when thats only 2% of the ETF AUM In traditional finance we call that rebalancing. If $1.7B exiting a trillion dollar asset class is a collapse wait until you see what happens when Nvidia misses earnings by [--] cents. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015366125626749291 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015366125626749291"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2015366125626749291)  2026-01-25T10:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"When a stock like $IREN is up 45% YTD and flashing "578% ARR growth the market is usually pricing in execution perfection not just the revenue. So is it priced in Partially. The 45% rip suggests smart money is front running the capacity expansion But if we see it from the perspective that Energy is the new moat. $IREN isn't just a miner/HPC play; its a power infrastructure play. If they actually secure and energize that 1.4GW pipeline while Bitcoin stays $90k and AI compute demand stays tight the current multiple is likely cheap https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015406616858779861"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2015406616858779861)  2026-01-25T12:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@mvcinvesting The flaw in his logic Mag [--] capex isn't a monolith. If Meta slows down Microsoft or Google picks up the slack because they are in a prisoner's dilemma; if they stop building they lose the AI arms race. $NBIS feeds on the aggregate shortage not a single company's budget"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2015407069889695820)  2026-01-25T12:51Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@qualtrim Yes but ever wonder what is the cost for this Ads business for Netflix I made a post on $NFLX that you should read https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014688671518068876s=20 Yes Netflix ( $NFLX ) still has a moat today but the direction of the business is changing in a way that should make long term investors at least a little uncomfortable. Ok $NFLX is winning the streaming war by slowly becoming the thing it disrupted. Here me out for years https://t.co/xSq7iHL4ZN https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014688671518068876s=20 Yes Netflix ( $NFLX ) still has a moat today but the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2015475613251883304)  2026-01-25T17:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@TheProfInvestor Yes but ever wonder what is the cost for this Ads business for Netflix I made a post on $NFLX that you should read https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014688671518068876s=20 Yes Netflix ( $NFLX ) still has a moat today but the direction of the business is changing in a way that should make long term investors at least a little uncomfortable. Ok $NFLX is winning the streaming war by slowly becoming the thing it disrupted. Here me out for years https://t.co/xSq7iHL4ZN https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014688671518068876s=20 Yes Netflix ( $NFLX ) still has a moat today but"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2015476275540898179)  2026-01-25T17:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Jake__Wujastyk You think this is the bottom I made a post on $NFLX that I am sure you will like https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014688671518068876s=20 Yes Netflix ( $NFLX ) still has a moat today but the direction of the business is changing in a way that should make long term investors at least a little uncomfortable. Ok $NFLX is winning the streaming war by slowly becoming the thing it disrupted. Here me out for years https://t.co/xSq7iHL4ZN https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014688671518068876s=20 Yes Netflix ( $NFLX ) still has a moat today but the direction of the business is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2015476446571934063)  2026-01-25T17:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"The argument that $MELI cant handle cheap items due to logistics costs is a textbook example of spreadsheet analysis vs. business reality. The data from late [----] confirms exactly what you said: lowering the free shipping threshold wasnt a margin suicide pact; it was a customer acquisition weapon. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015510587002741113 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015510587002741113"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2015510587002741113)  2026-01-25T19:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@TrendingBitcoin I hold $MSTR but come on."Our model is sustainable as long as our core assumption holds. If it doesn't we'll pivot." Which is true for every levered BTC play but the [--] years is theater. Debt maturities come sooner"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2015733712395108471)  2026-01-26T10:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"This is the financial equivalent of "I'm not saying the earth is flat but hear me out." If you believe a decentralized asset with 15+ years of surviving Mt. Gox China bans 85% drawdowns and Jamie Dimon rants is suddenly going to rug you need more homework on simple math and finance https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015734520557752528 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015734520557752528"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2015734520557752528)  2026-01-26T10:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"People talk about P/E like its astrology. Low P/E = cheap. No. Sometimes low P/E means: the business is melting and the market is not stupid. Quick test: - Is earnings quality real - Is the balance sheet safe - Are shares outstanding rising Cheap isnt a number. Cheap is a mismatch between price and durable cash flows https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015742771496137182 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015742771496137182"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2015742771496137182)  2026-01-26T11:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Satoshrimp @nataninvesting Not bad picks. Strong conviction in all of them long term"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2012920517582377195)  2026-01-18T16:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Considering the recent history of successful acquisitions $BSX is supposed to grow 3-4% faster than the market at least with focus in increasing margins considering the multiple of the sector is not expensive but really sensitive to shocking news on for example key products regulation approval missed etc https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013694238509113788 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013694238509113788"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2013694238509113788)  2026-01-20T19:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Its not everyday you can see great compunders in these drawdowns: - $CSU: -49% - $NOW:-46% - $RACE: -41% - $NFLX :35% The question is "when to pull the trigger and buy""  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2013920379123699837)  2026-01-21T10:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Cool story. But the guy's been steadily rotating out of Microsoft since [----] down from 50%+ of his portfolio pouring into farmland waste management and nuclear. $MSFT is up 800% since he peaked. Retail spotting his moves in [----] is like chasing Buffett out of Apple after the run up https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014323596546515227 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014323596546515227"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014323596546515227)  2026-01-22T13:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@QualityInvest5 $CHGG is what ultra bear on $DUOL think can happen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014685926052495647)  2026-01-23T13:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@optionscjp So you are comparing $DUOL with Chegg the company whose product was literally pay us for answers the internet already has but with extra steps and a monthly subscription. Maybe you are not clear on what Duolingo is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2015735416125521949)  2026-01-26T10:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@ekwufinance You know he is a total scammer right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2015736564668617053)  2026-01-26T10:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Be careful of P/FCF traps $NOW looks cheap at 27x. But subtract SBC.ops. Maybe it is cheap but as much as you think"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016094987591594476)  2026-01-27T10:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@WealthyReadings Its often the problem with Fintwit that creates FOMO and people jump in equities that dont understand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016266447270408635)  2026-01-27T21:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"This hits the nail on the head. The Quality at Any Price mantra worked beautifully for a decade because multiple expansion masqueraded as alpha. When you buy a 15% grower at 40x earnings you need perfection for [--] years just to justify the entry. Any slip margins guidance macro and the multiple compression (40x 25x) crushes [--] years of earnings growth overnight. As we are seeing now for lots of equities https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016267634543616108 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016267634543616108"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016267634543616108)  2026-01-27T21:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"I love the chart Aria you are a magician with Fiscal AI. But to be Devil's advocate here this feels like looking at a Blockbuster video valuation deck in [----] saying 'Cash flow is strong if you ignore this new Netflix thing going on' What if that garbage 12x multiple isn't a random mistake but it's the AI Fear reasonably materialized Also 16% Rev/Share growth is great but how much of that is just aggressive buybacks masking a slow churn and/or slower user growth due to Canva/Midjourney/AI Hope you're right my friend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016269653354676591)  2026-01-27T21:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@WealthyReadings $UNH has actually a complicated business and usually a long term hold but it gets treated as a swing trade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016270969443094630)  2026-01-27T22:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"🧠 $CSU Deep Dive: Why AI Isn't Killing it (It's acually giving a Discount) Let's address the elephant in the room: everyone on Twitter thinks AI is going to nuke "boring" software. "Why pay $50k a year for 1990s bus routing software when ChatGPT-6 can write it in [--] seconds" I get it. It sounds smart. It's also completely wrong. And if you believe it you're about to miss one of the easiest capital allocation layup of the decade. Here is why Constellation Software ($CSU) isn't dead my friend. [--]. The "Code" isn't the Moat (Sorry Silicon Valley) Tech bros think software is valuable because the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016457696078147994)  2026-01-28T10:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@TacticzH Made a post on $CSU exactly on this AI fear that I am sure you will like it: https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016457696078147994s=20 🧠 $CSU Deep Dive: Why AI Isn't Killing it (It's acually giving a Discount) Let's address the elephant in the room: everyone on Twitter thinks AI is going to nuke "boring" software. "Why pay $50k a year for 1990s bus routing software when ChatGPT-6 can write it in [--] seconds" I https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016457696078147994s=20 🧠 $CSU Deep Dive: Why AI Isn't Killing it (It's acually giving a Discount) Let's address the elephant in the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016465273226686928)  2026-01-28T10:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DimitryNakhla Made a post on $CSU exactly on this AI fear that I am sure you will like it: https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016457696078147994s=20 🧠 $CSU Deep Dive: Why AI Isn't Killing it (It's acually giving a Discount) Let's address the elephant in the room: everyone on Twitter thinks AI is going to nuke "boring" software. "Why pay $50k a year for 1990s bus routing software when ChatGPT-6 can write it in [--] seconds" I https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016457696078147994s=20 🧠 $CSU Deep Dive: Why AI Isn't Killing it (It's acually giving a Discount) Let's address the elephant in the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016465514273357899)  2026-01-28T10:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@LindenJohan I just made a post on $CSU and the misplaced AI fear that I'm sure you will like: https://x.com/rationalmind__/status/2016457696078147994s=46&t=qWUgtu82UA-DImxY6dl8fw 🧠 $CSU Deep Dive: Why AI Isn't Killing it (It's acually giving a Discount) Let's address the elephant in the room: everyone on Twitter thinks AI is going to nuke "boring" software. "Why pay $50k a year for 1990s bus routing software when ChatGPT-6 can write it in [--] seconds" I https://x.com/rationalmind__/status/2016457696078147994s=46&t=qWUgtu82UA-DImxY6dl8fw 🧠 $CSU Deep Dive: Why AI Isn't Killing it (It's acually"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016609274881769669)  2026-01-28T20:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@VanIsleInvestor I just made a post on $CSU and the misplaced AI fear that I'm sure you will like: https://x.com/rationalmind__/status/2016457696078147994s=46&t=qWUgtu82UA-DImxY6dl8fw 🧠 $CSU Deep Dive: Why AI Isn't Killing it (It's acually giving a Discount) Let's address the elephant in the room: everyone on Twitter thinks AI is going to nuke "boring" software. "Why pay $50k a year for 1990s bus routing software when ChatGPT-6 can write it in [--] seconds" I https://x.com/rationalmind__/status/2016457696078147994s=46&t=qWUgtu82UA-DImxY6dl8fw 🧠 $CSU Deep Dive: Why AI Isn't Killing it (It's"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016609320075489284)  2026-01-28T20:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"🍿 $META AI CAPEX Deep Dive: How Meta's AI Capex Bet Justifies Itself (And Why The Stock Isn't Crazy) Everyone is screaming about $META's capex. $70 billion in [----]. $110+ billion in [----]. It looks insane. But this is where most investors go wrong: they think Meta is building data centers because it's fun. They're not. They're building the advertising superintelligence of the future and the math actually works. [--]. The Money Machine: Where Meta's $51B Quarterly Revenue Comes From 💰 Let's be brutally simple: 98.6% of Meta's revenue is ads. That's $50.08 billion in Q3 [----] from advertising (vs."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016870029317329129)  2026-01-29T13:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I usually like your post. But this one reads like every $Tesla bull who's been riding the 1200% gain since [----]. The people still shouting "long game" are the ones who made 10x already. The graveyard of bagholders who bought at $400 in [----] Silent. Also Price over margin campaign sounds noble until you realize Tesla's auto gross margins have collapsed from 30%+ (2022 peak) to sub 20% now even worse than most legacy automakers they mocked initially. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016876151847653504 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016876151847653504"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016876151847653504)  2026-01-29T14:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mr_Derivatives If you fear $META Capex I just made an article on this that you will love: https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016870029317329129s=20 🍿 $META AI CAPEX Deep Dive: How Meta's AI Capex Bet Justifies Itself (And Why The Stock Isn't Crazy) Everyone is screaming about $META's capex. $70 billion in [----]. $110+ billion in [----]. It looks insane. But this is where most investors go wrong: they think Meta is building https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016870029317329129s=20 🍿 $META AI CAPEX Deep Dive: How Meta's AI Capex Bet Justifies Itself (And Why The Stock Isn't Crazy) Everyone"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016877006026138070)  2026-01-29T14:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@realroseceline Well.thats simply explains what I wrote above. You love it cause you made money on it (happy for you buddy) but since you have a relevant voice dont you think would be better to spread good and valuable insights not defending your positions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2016880203096600611)  2026-01-29T14:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"How $META Actually Makes Money From Your Scroll: The Advertising Breakdown Everyone thinks Meta's business is "showing ads to people." That's like saying Amazon's business is "shipping boxes." The real business is predicting which ad will make you buy then getting paid if you do. The Simple Version Advertiser: I sell shoes. My Budget is: $10000 -Goal: sell shoes. On the other hand Meta AI: Watches the 2.2B people using Instagram. Finds [-----] who bought shoes last month. Serves the ad to those people. [--] people buy shoes. Advertiser happy comes back with $50000 next month. Meta wins when for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2017234632949850226)  2026-01-30T13:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@WealthyReadings I think we become too used to short holding and have quick judgements also on $HIMS here fundamentally I m not sure you understand the company or the market if you wrote this which is nothing bad sticking to circle of competence is key"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2017708127798411324)  2026-01-31T21:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BTC Dip Panic First Understand Why It Has REAL Value (Then Why This Is Normal) $BTC at $78.9K. Crash headlines everywhere. Let me break this down properly. First does Bitcoin even have value Critics say no cash flows no earnings its just digital magic beans. This starts already from a wrong premise. Bitcoin isnt a company. Its more akin to a digital gold/store of value asset. Gold as a similarish example produces zero cash flow too. So the value is given by = scarcity + trust + portability. And what is Bitcoins edge 21M fixed cap (94% mined) vs infinite fiat Send $1M to Mars on a USB No"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2017714234491035857)  2026-01-31T21:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$HIMS: From FinTwit Meme to Telehealth Monster Picture this: [--] months ago Hims & Hers was "that hair loss stock." Fast forward to [----] stock up 142% YTD 30% short interest Reddit calling it the "next GME." But behind the noise A compounding machine most investors completely missed. The real story: HIMS isn't a meme. It's subscription healthcare [---]. Here's what happened: When Eli Lilly/Novo couldn't meet GLP-1 demand HIMS launched compounded semaglutide at $165/month (vs $1800 branded). Weight loss revenue exploded. But the plot twist: Non-GLP revenue grew +43% to $1.2B. Hair loss ED skincare"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014352657981260121)  2026-01-22T15:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Yes Netflix ( $NFLX ) still has a moat today but the direction of the business is changing in a way that should make long term investors at least a little uncomfortable. Ok $NFLX is winning the streaming war by slowly becoming the thing it disrupted. Here me out for years Netflixs moat was simple: ⚫Best product UX (no ads no cable style friction) ⚫The default what do we watch tonight app ⚫Global scale to amortize content spend ⚫Data driven content machine + distribution advantage And that moat is still real today. It remains the engagement king and the platform most households keep when they"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014688671518068876)  2026-01-23T13:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Its a valid frustration. Youre looking for a Toll Booth ET capital light compounders like exchanges ( $ICE $NDAQ) ratings agencies ( $SPGI $MCO) and data/analytics ( $MSCI $FDS) but you keep getting force fed balance sheet risk (banks/insurers) via generic "Financials" ETFs like $XLF. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015405763804754170 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015405763804754170"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2015405763804754170)  2026-01-25T12:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@nataninvesting Thanks I ll try currently using Portseido but I dont like its UX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2018950391166304422)  2026-02-04T07:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The Street freaked out when $GOOG announced $175 185B CapEx for [----]. "They're lighting money on fire" Here's what they're missing: ☑Google Cloud Q4 Results: ☑Revenue: $17.7B (+48% YoY) ☑Operating Income: $5.3B (+154% YoY) ☑Backlog: $240B (+55% QoQ +100% YoY) Read that again: $240B backlog. That's not hoping AI works. That's signed contracts from enterprises saying "we need your infrastructure NOW." The AI Spending Breakdown: - 60% AI servers (GPUs TPUs) - 40% Data centers + networking This isn't speculative. It's capacity expansion to meet existing demand. CFO quote: "The majority of capex"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2019704045464699293)  2026-02-06T09:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"A simple $RELY 5year sensitivity. A business most likely overlooked with a greath story of growth. Current data LTM revenue $1.5B Share price $15 Assumptions Average revenue growth: 15%/yr  $3.0B in [--] years Year5 net margin: 5%15% Shares: 205M From there every combo of margin final P/E gives a different 5year CAGR of expected returns. The stock even with a modest 15% Rev CAGR for next [--] years (way lower than their actual average) seems to have huge potential based on their path to profitability margins. In summary Remitly is a digital remittance platform: it lets migrant workers send money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2000212009074278528)  2025-12-14T14:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@chitchatstocks As your are mayor bull for $RELY what you think about it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2014340935539098058)  2026-01-22T14:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I'll say it again.This is a rare moment to look at Constellation Software $CSU.TO The stock had a significant pullback to the [----] CAD level. For a compounder that usually trades at a massive premium this is a dislocation. Because of Constellations M&A model (buying hundreds of VMS businesses) GAAP EPS is not the best metric due to high amortization of intangibles. We will use FCF (Free Cash Flow) per share. [--]. The Numbers (Current Snapshot) Stock Price: [----] CAD FCF/Share (TTM): 165-170 CAD (implied from 15x P/FCF data) Current P/FCF: 15x (Historically CSU trades at 25x30x FCF). Overall the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2020427198193193110)  2026-02-08T09:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Stock drops 40%. Do you: A) Sell ("Technical breakdown") B) Double down ("Margin of safety") C) Freeze ("What do I even own") Wrong answer: All of them. Right answer: "What changed in the business" The checklist: ✓ Revenue growth ✓ Margins ✓ Debt ✓ Competition ✓ Management No change = Buy more. Real change = Run. Markets test character not charts. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020507915937800648 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020507915937800648"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2020507915937800648)  2026-02-08T14:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$CSU.TO The Giant Wakes Up While everyone was watching big tech earnings Constellation Software just quietly signaled its next phase. Recent Moves: Spin-off Strategy: Following the success of Topicus ($TOI) and Lumine ($LMN) they are proving they can "clone" headquarters. This removes the bottleneck on capital deployment. Capital Deployment: Despite size they deployed $2B last year. The "law of large numbers" bears have been wrong for a decade. The Signal: The stock pullback to $2480 isn't a business failure; it's a sentiment shift. But the machine is running hotter than ever. Spin offs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2020817524409926127)  2026-02-09T11:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TheValueTrade Trying to be rational this is the real current situation for $HIMS read if have some share or want to know the facts and not just noise: https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2020931285963690117s=20 $HIMS The Hims & Hers GLP-1 War: A Deep Dive into the Lawsuits and Future Outlook Date: February [--] [----] Hims & Hers Health is facing an existential legal and regulatory storm. What started as a lucrative pivot into compounded weight loss drugs has mutated into a multi-front https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2020931285963690117s=20 $HIMS The Hims & Hers GLP-1 War: A Deep Dive into"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2020932048496754989)  2026-02-09T18:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@dirtygreenpaper Trying to be rational this is the real current situation for $HIMS read if have some share or want to know the facts and not just noise: https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2020931285963690117s=20 $HIMS The Hims & Hers GLP-1 War: A Deep Dive into the Lawsuits and Future Outlook Date: February [--] [----] Hims & Hers Health is facing an existential legal and regulatory storm. What started as a lucrative pivot into compounded weight loss drugs has mutated into a multi-front https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2020931285963690117s=20 $HIMS The Hims & Hers GLP-1 War: A Deep Dive into"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2020932106973548590)  2026-02-09T18:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"How $CSU.TO Actually Makes Money (and why AI matters) Most software companies try to build "The Next Big Thing." Constellation Software buys "The Thing That Won't Die." Whats The Model: Find niche "mission critical" VMS (Vertical Market Software). Think: software for managing bowling alleys municipal buses or timber yards. Buy them cheap (often 1x-2x revenue). Raise prices cut bloat optimize FCF. Never sell. Use the cash to buy more companies. Everyone fears AI will kill legacy software. CSU sees it differently: Efficiency. If AI lets [--] engineer do the work of [--] CSU's 1000+ portfolio"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2021264319648780703)  2026-02-10T16:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$RACE is trading at 34x Earnings after reporting +12% revenue growth and +13% EPS growth in FY25. The bears say: "34x for a car company is insane." The bulls say: "It's a luxury goods monopoly with pricing power." Who is right Let's look at the cash machine. FY [----] Scorecard: -Revenue: 6.7B (+12% YoY) -Net Profit: 1.4B (+13% YoY) -EBITDA Margin: 38.2% (Steady) -Industrial FCF: 932M (Flat YoY due to capex) Everyone is focused on the [-----] cars delivered (+3%). Nobody is talking about the Personalization Revenue boom. That's pure margin. When you sell a 400k car the next 100k in leather"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2021320747088547998)  2026-02-10T20:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Twitter is panicking because $SPGI dropped to $400. Smart money is celebrating. Here is why the drop is a gift: [--]. The "Buyback Turbo" Effect $SPGI authorized a $2.5B accelerated buyback. At $440/share that buys 5.6M shares. At $400/share that buys 6.2M shares. The price drop just increased your ownership of the business by 10% for free. [--]. Margins are EXPANDING not contracting Adjusted Operating Margin: 48.6%. That is +270 basis points YOY While the market worries about revenue noise management is making the business more efficient. [--]. The "Safety" Trade Q4 Revenue Breakdown: Transaction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2021323869563351064)  2026-02-10T20:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"A quick reminder that $GOOG spending $185B on AI infrastructure sounds insane.Until you realize they generated $165B in operating cash flow in [----]. That's not debt funded gambling my friend. That's cash flow reinvestment. Here's the math from FY [----] Financials: Operating Cash Flow: $164.7B CapEx: $91.4B Free Cash Flow: $73.3B For [----] assume: CapEx: $180B (midpoint of $175-185B guidance) Operating Cash Flow: $200B (conservative +20% growth) Implied FCF: $20B Even in the heaviest investment year they'll still print $20B in free cash. What are they getting for it Google Cloud is now a $70B+"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2021505109008543974)  2026-02-11T08:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$RACE at $365/share. Is the upside gone Let's run the compounding math from the FY25 base EPS of [----] ($8.50). EPS Scenarios for 2028: 10% CAGR (Base Case): $11.30 EPS 15% CAGR (Bull Case): $12.90 EPS (Driven by new hypercar + special series) Price Targets in 2028: At 30x P/E (Multiple Compression): 10% Growth $339 (Dead money) 15% Growth $387 (+6% total return) At 35x P/E (Current Multiple Holds): 10% Growth $395 (+8% total return) 15% Growth $451 (+23% total return) At 40x P/E (Luxury Premium Returns): 10% Growth $452 (+24% total return) 15% Growth $516 (+41% total return) Lets be real the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2021688203313332706)  2026-02-11T20:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Serious investors hunt for businesses that quietly earn high returns on invested capital (ROIC) and reinvest without drama. Five names worth studying: Booking Holdings $BKNG (5Yrs AVG ROIC 32%): assetlight marketplace with powerful network effects. AutoZone $AZO (5Yrs AVG ROIC 29%): boring auto parts elite capital allocation. Copart $CPRT (5Yrs AVG ROIC 30%): salvage auctions with scale and tech advantages Dominos Pizza $DPZ (5Yrs AVG ROIC 80%): assetlight franchise model for Pizza lovers. MSCI $MSCI (5Yrs AVG ROIC 25%): index and analytics tollbooth These businesses dont need AI day or meme"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/1999807864823546145)  2025-12-13T11:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$HIMS The Hims & Hers GLP-1 War: A Deep Dive into the Lawsuits and Future Outlook Date: February [--] [----] Hims & Hers Health is facing an existential legal and regulatory storm. What started as a lucrative pivot into compounded weight loss drugs has mutated into a multi-front war against Big Pharma (Novo Nordisk) the FDA and class action lawyers. Here is the analytical breakdown of the lawsuits the core legal arguments and the realistic future outlook for HIMS. [--]. The Core Lawsuits: What is Happening There are three distinct layers of legal pressure hitting Hims & Hers simultaneously as of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2020931285963690117)  2026-02-09T18:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$MNDY: The Baby Out With the Bathwater Monday just dropped 20% because guidance missed by 1.5% and continue to drop Lets look at the actual business at $75/share: ✅ Revenue: $1.45B+ (growing 19%) ✅ FCF Margin: 15-20% (Cash Machine) ✅ Enterprise Growth: Accelerating (customers $50k = 41% of ARR) ❌ SMB Self Serve: Weak (Macro headwinds) Valuation has compressed to 2x EV/Sales. For a profitable platform-grade SaaS leader The market is pricing it like a melting ice cube. Its actually seems more as a maturing compounder. This is where the money is made folks. #MNDY #SaaS #Investing #Contraria"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2021297527899721977)  2026-02-10T18:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"A quality valuation analysis on $OSCR Current P/E Ratio: 13.5x (Based on $12.90 price / $0.95 FY26 Guide Midpoint) Forward EBITDA Multiple: 5.5x (Based on $650M FY26 Adj. EBITDA Guide) Free Cash Flow: Positive (Finally) The market still treats Oscar like a "cash burning SPAC." But they just posted their first profitable year ($173M Net Income) and guided for $300M+ Net Income in [----]. You are buying a hyper growth InsurTech at a value stock multiple. Going forward investors can receive 20-25% MORE in earnings per share from operating leverage alone. Before we get into valuation lets clear up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2021531442463883534)  2026-02-11T10:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"A quality valuation analysis on $SPGI Current P/E Ratio: 24.9x (Based on $400 price / $16.08 FY26 Guide) 10-Year Mean: 32.3x FCF Yield: 3.9% ($4.7B FCF / $120B Market Cap) As you can see $SPGI is trading 23% below its historical average. The market is pricing in a recession that isn't happening handing you a monopoly on sale. Going forward investors can receive 15-20% MORE in earnings per share from organic growth + accelerated buybacks at depressed prices. Before we get into valuation lets take a look at why $SPGI is the Operating System of Capital (Financials in USD FY 2025) BALANCE SHEET"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2021590459261256042)  2026-02-11T14:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Quick reminder that $MSFT currently trades at 23x forward earnings with locked contracts ($392B commercial RPO) showing 51% growth and Azure accelerating at 40% YoY. Only attention point the company is investing $35B annually in capex (76% higher than last year) to feed an AI demand that's still outrunning capacity. Is this a supply constrained infrastructure story with 2+ years of locked revenue upside or an overheated capex cycle betting on AI hype that will normalize https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021883745045807589 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021883745045807589"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2021883745045807589)  2026-02-12T09:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Dubbiosismo That is true in term of strategy but number wise the revenue growth was giving that "vibe" no"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2021891986576351585)  2026-02-12T10:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I appreciate your take. I see actually different here. "85% of Sundance films were made with Adobe tools" means owning the least profitable part of the creator economy. The real money isn't Sundance. It's the millions of corporate videos social ads and YouTube empires that are actively abandoning Premiere for CapCut and DaVinci Resolve because Adobe is bloated crash prone and expensive. Its like bragging about being the king of indie film while losing the war for the internet. To me this looks a classic Horse & Buggy fallacy. "Cars will just make horses faster" No. AI video (Sora Runway Pika"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2021896667197251933)  2026-02-12T10:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@WealthyReadings Yes they do cause once a $ISRG device is sold (mainly Da Vinci ones) the maintenance and purchase of usables are recurrent revenues. So the more they expand in the market the more they have recurrent entries. $TDMX doesnt have this type of business dynamics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022409323889185043)  2026-02-13T20:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@DimitryNakhla Dont forget $UBER"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022414692166361272)  2026-02-13T20:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Quick self audit: How many of your investment decisions in the past year were based on: - Deep analysis - Someone else's excitement - FOMO - "This can't keep going up" Be honest. Your answer reveals more about your returns than any strategy ever will. #InvestingPsychology"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022217690602254826)  2026-02-13T07:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Twitter loves to group $RACE with $TSLA or $LVMH. Stop. It's lazy. Tesla: Volume game. Price cuts. Margins compressing. LVMH: Cyclical luxury. Exposed to aspirational shoppers. Ferrari: Supply constrained BY CHOICE. The Evidence from FY25: Shipments: [-----] units. Order Book: "Extending into 2027" (CEO Vigna). Think about that. They have sold every car they will build for the next two years. If a recession hits tomorrow Ferrari doesn't lower prices. They just work through the backlog. In a sense while tech stocks swung 30% last year Ferrari just. delivered cars. Just remember: Q4 Revenue: +11%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022327034874106004)  2026-02-13T15:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The metric isn't broken. The denominator is my friend Respect the history but you are using a 20th century ruler to measure a 21st century economy. While Accounting Rules Changed (GAAP) - In [----] accounting standards (FASB 142) changed how companies treat goodwill impairments. It forced massive write-downs during recessions artificially crushing the "E" in the Shiller P/E. Also the composition of the Index changed. In [----] the S&P [---] was oil banks and factories (Capital heavy low ROIC low P/E). Today its Tech Services and IP (Capital light infinite ROIC high P/E). You should pay a higher"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2023082413304291581)  2026-02-15T17:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Everyone's panicking about $GOOG spending $185B on AI. Nobody's pricing in the $132B in net income they just printed. Let's do the math: Current P/E: 28x (based on $175 price / $10.81 FY25 EPS) [--] Year Avg P/E: 28x FCF Yield: 1.93% (vs. 3.5% 5Y avg) Wait.why is FCF yield down if the business is accelerating Because they're pre investing for the next decade of AI infrastructure. This isn't spending it's building a moat while competitors watch. The Numbers: 🟢Revenue: $403B (+15% YoY) 🟢Google Cloud: $17.7B Q4 revenue (+48% YoY) 🟢Cloud Operating Income: $5.3B (2.5x YoY) 🟢Search Revenue: $63B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2019408015456133172)  2026-02-05T13:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$PGY: From Cash Burner to Cash Printer 🖨 Pagaya posted its first full year of GAAP Net Income ($81M). Adjusted EBITDA is up 76% to $371M. Margins hit 29%. Yet the stock is priced for bankruptcy because volume growth slowed to 3%. The Trade off: Management explicitly cut risky volume to protect credit performance. They chose profitability over vanity metrics. At 4x [----] EBITDA you are buying a profitable AI-lending infrastructure play for scrap value. If credit holds up this re-rates to 8-10x. Double your money just by returning to "average." #Pagaya #Fintech #ValueInvesting #Earnings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2021298769166467191)  2026-02-10T19:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$PGY Guidance: Sandbagged or Stalled What's the real story here [----] Guidance: Revenue: $1.4B - $1.6B (15% growth) EBITDA: $410M - $460M (17% growth) This isn't hypergrowth anymore thats clear It's Quality Growth what they are aiming Pagaya is becoming a boring profitable compounder. 90% of revenue from fees (low balance sheet risk) $8.5B in funding raised (institutions still buying) Expanding into Auto & POS (diversification) If you want a 50% grower look elsewhere. If you want a profitable fintech at a value multiple look here. #Pagaya #Stocks #Macro #Value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2021871467089076464)  2026-02-12T08:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@HatedMoats Posted a valuation that you may like yesterday on $NFLX: https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022003284337123431s=20 A quality valuation analysis on $NFLX Current P/E Ratio: 30.4x (based on $77 price / $2.53 FY25 EPS) [--] Year Mean: 48.0x 2026e FCF Yield: 3.3% (on $11B guidance) [--] Year Mean: 0.5% (historically cash negative) As you can see $NFLX appears to be trading below fair value https://t.co/zmAYpZ6PjR https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022003284337123431s=20 A quality valuation analysis on $NFLX Current P/E Ratio: 30.4x (based on $77 price / $2.53 FY25 EPS) [--] Year Mean:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022407323038466223)  2026-02-13T20:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$MSFT at 25x vs $NKE/ $WMT at 30x+ isnt an overearning problem. Its a CapEx anxiety problem. The market hates that $MSFT spent $37.5B in ONE quarter on GPUs (+66% YoY). It treats that cash as vaporized until proven otherwise. Anywya to put it simply if Satya is right about AI demand 25x is a gift. If he's wrong that CapEx is a massive write off. The discount is the price of uncertainty.which is probably not so risky https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022414034490786100 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022414034490786100"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022414034490786100)  2026-02-13T20:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Charlie Munger once said: "The best business is a royalty on the growth of others." $META has built exactly that: a [----] BILLION person advertising platform that takes a cut every time a business wants to reach customers. Here's why Meta's ad business is entering a new growth phase THE SCALE IS ABSURD: ✓ 3.58B Daily Active People across Facebook Instagram WhatsApp & Messenger -that's 75% of ALL internet connected humans on Earth ✓ Over 2B daily actives EACH on Facebook & WhatsApp ✓ Instagram approaching 2B daily actives THE ENGAGEMENT IS ACCELERATING: ✓ Instagram Reels watch time: +30% YoY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022686733490442579)  2026-02-14T14:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Your numbers are solid but you are likely underestimating (on purpose) the upside volatility. If they hit those EPS targets a [--] 30x multiple is far more likely than 20x pushing CAGRs closer to [--] 30%. Buying $APP here is a bet that the multiple holds 20x. Given they are growing EPS at 30% a 20x multiple is actually a PEG of [---]. That is pretty cheap for a dominant AI ad monopoly or close to it https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022688829375725977 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022688829375725977"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022688829375725977)  2026-02-14T15:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Thats a great way to frame the current generation (LLMs) which largely predict the next token based on human data. But do you think that changes with reasoning models (like o1 or DeepSeek) that use self play AlphaGo is the classic example it didn't just process human moves; it played against itself to produce strategies no human had ever mined. If AI starts generating high quality synthetic data to train itself does the leverage shift away from the miners (data owners) back to the processors https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022693159176643053"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022693159176643053)  2026-02-14T15:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"A quality valuation analysis on $MA Current P/E Ratio: 30.5x (Based on $518 price / $17.01 FY25 Adj EPS) 10-Year Mean: 37.5x FCF Yield: 3.4% ($16.4B FCF / $476B Market Cap) 10-Year Mean: 2.8% As you can see $MA is trading below fair value pricing in a recession that isn't happening tomorrow (Volumes +9% Cross Border +15%). Going forward investors can receive 15-18% MORE in earnings per share just from the compounding engine. Before we get into valuation lets take a look at why $MA is the King of Quality (Financials in USD FY 2025) BALANCE SHEET Cash: $10.6B Total Debt: $19.0B Net Debt: $8.4B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022707938389840196)  2026-02-14T16:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I strongly agree here. 100%. This is the critical distinction: Closed System vs. Open System. Closed System (Go/Code/Math): AI can play against itself generate synthetic truth and outperform humans without new data. Open System (Finance/News/Real World): AI cannot reason its way to knowing if $NKE missed earnings. It must buy that data from the source ( $SPGI/ $LSEG/Bloomberg). So for companies like $SPGI or $MCO the moat is arguably stronger in an AI world. AI makes the analysis cheap (commoditizing junior analysts) but it makes the ground truth invaluable. The more AI models hallucinate the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022726811092693328)  2026-02-14T17:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I love the stress test but I think you missed the real nightmare scenario for $CSU. It isn't growth going to zero (retention floor is too high). It isn't valuation compression (that's just mark to market pain). The real risk is capital allocation decay. $CSU is a compounding machine because it deploys FCF at high ROIC. If hurdle rates drift (as you noted) or deal flow dries up that $82/share FCF starts piling up on the balance sheet earning 4% (or worse gets deployed into bad deals). Then you turn into a dividend stock. At that point the multiple doesn't just halve.it goes to a utility"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022730412791935365)  2026-02-14T17:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@PandaDaytona I can do a deep dive on $V if you are interested in the next days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022741542713106633)  2026-02-14T18:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@PandaDaytona I mean they have the same valuation but $MA grows a bit faster what you can do is have both and add on specific dips"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022743581967159554)  2026-02-14T18:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ToninaFairValue When you say Hold rating on what returns and time span you refer to Cause its the point of the whole investment thesis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022751100521034140)  2026-02-14T19:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Wall Street continous obsession over $META Reality Labs losing $19B/year is one of the most obvious value investor misdirection I've seen in years Here's why you're looking at the wrong thing: Reality Labs 2025: ❌ Revenue: $2.2B ❌ Operating Loss: $(19.2B) ❌ Operating Margin: -770% Family of Apps 2025: ✅ Revenue: $198.8B ✅ Operating Income: $102.5B ✅ Operating Margin: 51.6% Reality Labs is 1% of Meta's revenue but takes up 90% of analyst questions. Let me do the math for you: If Meta shut down Reality Labs tomorrow the company would trade at: $680B market cap (adjusted for RL losses) $95B in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2023023813311496647)  2026-02-15T13:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The framework is solid: 1.Separate who actually pays from who just benefits from AI 2.Follow the money into infra (chips power data centers) not the narrative stocks But I think youre still underestimating (on purpose of course) how brutal the economics can get for everyone above the infra layer. LLMs are already commoditizing application logic. If your moat is we integrated AI into our SaaS congrats so did everyone else. The infra guys (NVDA TSM power specialized data key payment rails etc.) are quietly becoming the new tax authorities of the digital economy. They dont need AI narratives;"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2023026085781225526)  2026-02-15T13:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@rev_cap Jealous sad person.aside from being a scammer and criminal so yeah I wouldnt listen even a thank you from him"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2023070699103944892)  2026-02-15T16:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@DimitryNakhla @CapexAndChill convince me to buy $APP that I am already pretty tempted I mean even when I run the below conservative valuation seems a bargain😅"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2023080682877296847)  2026-02-15T17:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Is $MNDY an AI Winner or Loser The narrative is shifting. Monday isn't just "project management" anymore. Management confirmed their new "Monday Vibe" product is the fastest to hit $1M ARR in company history. Why AI Agents. Their new architecture allows companies to build "AI workforces" that execute tasks not just track them. Automating workflows Surface insights (AI Sidekick) Building custom apps on data The market sees a [----] revenue miss. I see a platform transitioning to the AI application layer. At $70 the AI optionality is free. #AI #MNDY #TechTrends #Software"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2022001287563554984)  2026-02-12T17:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Love the business push back a bit on the no brainer label. Im fully invested in META and still think about it this way: At 2122x forward youre paying a fair price for an apex asset not getting it for free. The $40 EPS / 25x = $1000 setup is a bullish case (even if I also think its pretty reasonable) not base case If we end up closer to mid30s EPS in [----] and the multiple sticks around 20x youre looking at a low teens CAGR before buybacks very solid but not shut your brain off and size it like a norisk 16% IRR. Biggest difference vs $GOOGL for me: META is still basically a pure play ads"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2023057080848937269)  2026-02-15T15:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CapexAndChill @DimitryNakhla Gotta say that also the management seems pretty solid reminds me of $ASML or $BKNG ones in the way the handle the calls with pure facts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Rationalmind__/status/2023082748865642730)  2026-02-15T17:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

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