# ![@RationalTrades Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1431464359536979976.png) @RationalTrades RationalTrades

RationalTrades posts on X about bitcoin, $bito, dividend, $btc the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1431464359536979976/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1431464359536979976/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] -77%
- [--] Month [-----] -12%
- [--] Months [------] +72%
- [--] Year [-------] -23%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1431464359536979976/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1431464359536979976/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Month [--] -63%
- [--] Months [---] +37%
- [--] Year [---] -66%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1431464359536979976/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1431464359536979976/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +0.44%
- [--] Month [---] +1.30%
- [--] Months [---] +11%
- [--] Year [---] +45%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1431464359536979976/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1431464359536979976/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  70.48% [stocks](/list/stocks)  59.05% [finance](/list/finance)  54.29% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  1.9% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  1.9% [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands)  0.95%

**Social topic influence**
[bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) 36.19%, [$bito](/topic/$bito) #11, [dividend](/topic/dividend) #898, [$btc](/topic/$btc) 26.67%, [model](/topic/model) 12.38%, [$mara](/topic/$mara) 11.43%, [money](/topic/money) 11.43%, [$clsk](/topic/$clsk) 10.48%, [$bitf](/topic/$bitf) #130, [if you](/topic/if-you) 10.48%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@celsiusucc](/creator/undefined) [@celsiansnetwork](/creator/undefined) [@nostredamus](/creator/undefined) [@musicbyscott](/creator/undefined) [@wallstreetsilv](/creator/undefined) [@ghosttyped](/creator/undefined) [@btcmaxisg](/creator/undefined) [@tcostatim](/creator/undefined) [@steelersfelix](/creator/undefined) [@yegordb](/creator/undefined) [@davidjadler1991](/creator/undefined) [@chazzonke](/creator/undefined) [@denniskelleher](/creator/undefined) [@goldmansachs](/creator/undefined) [@oshaneb24](/creator/undefined) [@czbinance](/creator/undefined) [@justinbons](/creator/undefined) [@atomicwallet](/creator/undefined) [@spystsignals](/creator/undefined) [@dg0270881295248](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [BitoPro Exchange Token (BITO)](/topic/$bito) [MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA)](/topic/$mara) [CLEANSPARK INC (CLSK)](/topic/$clsk) [Bitfarms Ltd. (BITF)](/topic/$bitf) [Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)](/topic/$riot) [Cipher Mining Inc. Common Stock (CIFR)](/topic/$cifr) [Hut [--] Mining Corp. (HUT)](/topic/$hut) [Strategy (MSTR)](/topic/$mstr) [Hive Digital Technologies Ltd (HIVE)](/topic/hive) [Hive (HIVE)](/topic/$hive) [Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND)](/topic/$bynd) [TeraWulf Inc. (WULF)](/topic/$wulf) [The Official [--] coin (76)](/topic/$76) [S&P Global Inc (SPGI)](/topic/$spgi) [Bit Digital, Inc. (BTBT)](/topic/$btbt) [DisChain (DIS)](/topic/$dis) [Tenup (TUP)](/topic/$tup) [AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC)](/topic/$amc) [Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI)](/topic/$atvi) [PENN Entertainment Inc (PENN)](/topic/$penn) [Stronghold Digital Mining, Inc. (SDIG)](/topic/$sdig) [Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"$BITO last distribution of the year should be $0.78 Next year we are looking at a 0% dividend for the first few months (or until bitcoin recovery)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/2003478188232720586)  2025-12-23T14:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Today I worked on making an awesome chrome extension for option sellers You go to tradingview right click on the price and BAM You see all the options prices and yield for selling an option at this level I'll try to get this on the chrome store. https://youtu.be/q8v_SEeASfo https://youtu.be/q8v_SEeASfo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/2016497551336259881)  2026-01-28T13:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BITO Dividend cut off / record/ payment date is now available. For February : The forecasted divdend is : $0 I do not expect any dividend (or only the 4% yield from their bonds) until bitcoin goes back above $110 000"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/2017321019137028466)  2026-01-30T19:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"As expected $BITO dividend is close to $0. $0.009742 to be exact. Seems like they do have to distribute part of the return made by the collateral (less fess) So expect this type of dividend for the coming dividends until bitcoin goes back to 110k. $BITO Dividend cut off / record/ payment date is now available. For February : The forecasted divdend is : $0 I do not expect any dividend (or only the 4% yield from their bonds) until bitcoin goes back above $110 [---] https://t.co/BcVDzmxin5 $BITO Dividend cut off / record/ payment date is now available. For February : The forecasted divdend is : $0"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/2018054657889759608)  2026-02-01T20:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$SPGI one week -30% WTF. The reason A comment from an AI company and a miss of 1% on earnings. Is there even people at the command of this ship There is no way these are human decisions no This is like selling bitcoin on a quantum pitch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/2021229684814426239)  2026-02-10T14:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BITO dividend was $1.09 Forecasted number was $1.32 That's a bit further than other months predictions in absolute (23cent) But is actually incredibly close as Oct 1st dividend is the HARDEST dividend to calculate. Fiscal year ended Next month dividends will now be close to [--] $BITO october 1st dividend forecast is $1.32 The cut off date has been reached. #bitcoin moves will not change the October dividend anymore. This is the end of the fiscal year (and we only had [--] so far) so there might be some differences with what the model forecasted. https://t.co/NB9SY0eCOz $BITO october 1st dividend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1840972410394210443)  2024-10-01T04:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Is #bitcoin really up today Miners are almost all down. That is weird. Capitulation of miners before a squeeze Or $BTC fake out anticipated $BITF $HIVE $BTBT $CLSK $MARA $CIFR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1843308207974015378)  2024-10-07T15:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$BITF bid ask volume is weird today. [--] 000+ bid and ask within a [--] cent range. That seems unusually high. I think some big funds are suppressing the move for some miners not to follow #bitcoin pump"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1845908635123114191)  2024-10-14T19:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Nostre_damus That would be a great idea. If they bought bitcoin instead of gold they could even not produce any phone and still turn on a profit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1864660014599700511)  2024-12-05T13:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I buy puts at a higher strike for a cheaper price than what i sell them for at a lower strike. If stock is flat or up I keep the premium. If stock goes down I collect the difference in the strike + keep the premium. I also don't engage any capital. That's a Perfect Trade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/2022546864005132751)  2026-02-14T05:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Maybe the bug will remain for the next days maybe it wont. Only been doing this for [--] days Usually I can share these free money trades (I've done it multiple times in the past) but for this one I cannot share the ticker symbol because there isn't enough liquidity for me already"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/2022546866471379229)  2026-02-14T05:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"If #Disney reports bad earnings there is no telling how low they can go. $DIS chart look like we have the resistance at $85 and then nothing until $35. Given the #woke backlash and previous earnings resulting in 10% drops with IV is only in the 60s% I'm scared of selling PUT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1688553916831547392)  2023-08-07T14:13Z [---] followers, 11K engagements


"I love making money from irrationality in markets. $800 for betting that companies going bankrupt are not going to miraculously recover or that fake expensive meat is suddenly more profitable than real meat. $TUP $YELL $BYND $AMC $ATVI Follow the Implied Volatility"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1690089575438282753)  2023-08-11T19:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I did warn that proxies got overextended on $BTC rally. But I didn't expect the way down to be so steep. I thought we would get a slow bleed until September but the correction has not slowed yet. Only $CLSK is not affected $HUT $MSTR $MARA $RIOT $BITF $CIFR ouch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1691483841553215492)  2023-08-15T16:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"All of these are Correlation vs $BTC $MSTR has some support at this level but could still drop 15% $HUT limited support at this level trend support 15% down $CLSK $MARA $CIFR $RIOT trend support around 9% down. $BITF at support or 15/20% down. Not full panic in proxies yet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1692534244327739394)  2023-08-18T13:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$MARA is totally getting squeezed right now. Correlation with $BTC wasn't lower than the other miners but it moved 12% more than similar miners like $RIOT $CLSK $HUT. Expect a underperformance by about 10% vs other miners in coming weeks. #bitcoin #GBTC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1696602522180350442)  2023-08-29T19:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Something unusual is going on. Normally on $BTC pump all proxy over react by at least 2X. Today $MARA is even down And all miners like $RIOT $CLSK $HUT are not moving much. Either there is no confidence in the pump or it's a set up for a squeeze. #Bullish #bitcoin📷 #GBTC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1703782981075087527)  2023-09-18T14:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@MusicbyScott @WallStreetSilv Mathematics and Logic are not scams. You should invest in these a bit more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1708441745434812553)  2023-10-01T11:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$PENN is saying that in [--] years they would have a cash flow almost equal to their market cap. Is the stock really undervalued or are they hiding something to investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1720077142862840155)  2023-11-02T13:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"If you are worried that you missed the recent $BTC pump you can still buy miners. $MARA for example is trading at the equivalent of a sub 30k #Bitcoin . $RIOT $CLSK $BITF $HIVE and some others are behaving the same. $CIFR is not fully caught up but over the 30k already"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1720446059762106794)  2023-11-03T14:21Z [---] followers, 10.1K engagements


"@ghosttyped Dropbox was working [--] years ago i'm honestly not sure what they are doing since then"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1760921827373723854)  2024-02-23T06:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@btcMAXI_sg They can bluff but we can call"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1798467982206935337)  2024-06-05T21:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2.38 $BITF * [----] (Merge) = $6 $SDIG I get that the uncertainty and the time makes $SDIG less than $6. But the fact they don't move by the same ratio is just weird. 1% move in $bitf should be 2.52% move in $SDIG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1828149929270808664)  2024-08-26T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TcostaTim I will publish dividend forecasts [--] days before end of month each month. On my website will be the non definitive forecast every day based on current btc price. You can assume that if btc is flat for a month dividend will be the same as previous month until oct 1st"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1831051332456956206)  2024-09-03T19:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@steelers_felix Yes you are correct. This is unlikely to go to $23 unless there is a big move in $btc in the next 6-7 months. If the moves happen later the dividend will be bigger and make $23 harder to reach"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1831052730619850775)  2024-09-03T19:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Don't search further guys the $BTC pump is because I just sold [--] $BITO covered calls. Flawless timing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1836063241652347202)  2024-09-17T15:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"If BTC continues like this though I might get assigned on everything "  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1839672388767637511)  2024-09-27T14:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


""#Bitcoin is up so much this month $BITO dividend will be huge " NOPE This month $BTC price action WILL NOT affect the November 1st dividend. Dividend has not been published but has already been decided If you are finding this post after November 1st because you are confused as to why $BITO dividend suddenly dropped you should have followed me before. Dividend should be about $0.25 It represent $BTC move between 24th and 30th Sept. Don't expect high div to be back until Feb. https://t.co/vIOftm2EKy If you are finding this post after November 1st because you are confused as to why $BITO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1850984773092561265)  2024-10-28T19:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"If #bitcoin reaches $100 [---] by next week i'll give away the best aged cheese from my personal reserve to anyone who liked retweeted followed and called their mom to say they love her. Am I doing engagement farming right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1856070456404783281)  2024-11-11T20:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@yegordb The higher the food chain the less commits you post. I've done months where I only designed changes and reviewed the changes made by coworkers. Also the most established you are the most likely you are to get remote. Did you take this into consideration"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1859481812407370093)  2024-11-21T06:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DavidJAdler1991 Looks like theh only have eth that has more than 50%. Am I dreaming or there is a line for "sum of coins" Who would add up different coins together This is our millions dollars lawyers 50cel + [--] btc = [--] coins wow good job crypto specialist"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1617412185109696516)  2023-01-23T06:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@ChazzonKe Thank you for investigation. At this point i'm only hoping for current holders that a new set of bag holders brought by new bull market will allow them to exit these shady companies and put all on cold wallet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1627167085767036928)  2023-02-19T04:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$bynd beyond meat lost less money than expected. The stock is up 20%. I guess someone believed it would go 2X and bought 35$ calls from me for $14 each Easiest 150$ since beginning of the year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1628891801859022849)  2023-02-23T22:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DennisKelleher @GoldmanSachs Wow it's uncanny how it looks like the plan I highlighted here. Now they can use the bonds they just bought to borrow TON of liquidity very chealply. https://x.com/n1b0rh00d/status/1635379422986657801s=20 Profit from bailout 1)Buy 30Y bonds from [----] at 1% for a discount of 50% (today 3.7% rate today over [--] years). 2)Use bonds as collateral in #BTFP 3)Double your money for a year for a 5% interest rate. 4)Invest in ANYTHING to get a return 5% 5)Return the money keep the profit https://x.com/n1b0rh00d/status/1635379422986657801s=20 Profit from bailout 1)Buy 30Y"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1635818781011484672)  2023-03-15T01:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@OshaneB_24 @CelsiusUcc I believe this means that crypto claims are towards celsius network LLC. Claims against mining company are "other claims" like penalty for frauds and stuff like that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1640166774707732480)  2023-03-27T01:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@cz_binance I've seen enough to not believe either side this is a "I scratch your back you scratch mine" problem. So what was the real issue Some higher ups closing up some revenue streams Retribution for ftx"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1640492360436989957)  2023-03-27T23:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CelsiansNetwork Can you explain why would it matter if there was a bid An accepted bid would give all companies to the bid winner (hence whole of their value). So the bid would need to give more to customers than just what is in Celsius Network LLC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1642524561345224708)  2023-04-02T13:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Justin_Bons To be fair religion also had many chasms and the most adopted ones are very far from the original design. None of the implementations actually follow the white paper. (Which are anyway controversial). None of that stopped the adoption"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1652303852933386240)  2023-04-29T13:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CelsiansNetwork "Projected" means that you need your 30% of the dollar amount of your cryptos at Chapter [--] day to be more than 100K. So it means about 500k on Celsius Very unclear way to ask this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1661733876589539333)  2023-05-25T14:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@CelsiusUcc So now customers will pay the fee for breaking the agreement with Nova Wulf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1661796052876541952)  2023-05-25T18:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@AtomicWallet Thank you for the update. It is still worry some that the bug was not found out. Have you identified a pattern on the affected users (different software version frequent transactions interactions with some protocols etc.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1671590019881140224)  2023-06-21T18:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"#Inflation for June YoY: 3% MoM N.S.A: 0.32% How Using Average Seasonal Adjustment and Lag model vs #truflation #CPI #BLS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1672640489210937346)  2023-06-24T16:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@SPYSTSignals CPI should be a beat / positive. But how it will be interpreted by market is still a gamble. Note that this will be the lowest CPI for [----]. We will end year higher. https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1672640489210937346t=mzo_jn7w4uRVY78uI--wjQ&s=19 #Inflation for June YoY: 3% MoM N.S.A: 0.32% How Using Average Seasonal Adjustment and Lag model vs #truflation #CPI #BLS https://t.co/4isHsit35B https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1672640489210937346t=mzo_jn7w4uRVY78uI--wjQ&s=19 #Inflation for June YoY: 3% MoM N.S.A: 0.32% How Using Average Seasonal Adjustment and Lag model vs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1678974229059092485)  2023-07-12T03:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Last quarter before $AMZN earning the #volatility of options was above 150%. We are right now at 40-50%. I believe that in coming days the time decay shall at least be compensated by IV increase. Might be worth buying options. If selling wait last day. #optiontrading"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1680972083311034371)  2023-07-17T16:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"#BLS #Inflation prediction for August in #US #CPI YoY: 3.53% MoM N.S.A: 0.3% S.A 0.5% Rounding to 3.6% is possible #truflation ended at 2.71% instead of the 2.5% I used earlier which is why numbers slightly higher than on 10th. Official data lags and will affect next months"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1697254253763711389)  2023-08-31T14:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"10 days ago I forecasted $MARA to underperform by 10% in coming weeks. Well if that wasn't a spot on prediction I don't know what is. Always follow #BTC correlations when treating with miners. https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1696602522180350442s=20 $MARA is totally getting squeezed right now. Correlation with $BTC wasn't lower than the other miners but it moved 12% more than similar miners like $RIOT $CLSK $HUT. Expect a underperformance by about 10% vs other miners in coming weeks. #bitcoin #GBTC https://t.co/7JTxf7zYHl https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1696602522180350442s=20 $MARA is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1700169303927017577)  2023-09-08T15:28Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"US #CPI #inflation forecast for September: 3.75% YoY Given Oil trend I don't believe that September can be lower than average seasonal inflation (0.18). So [---] is MIN. Though Sep is usually higher than August I don't see a repeat of the surprising 0.43% MoM So [---] is MAX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1706592644049072363)  2023-09-26T08:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$MARA is the closest to the bottom based on correlation to #BTC Maybe it has to do with the 30% short interest. $MSTR is also 8% away from fair average value. Sentiment is getting worse and worse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1709212120263315928)  2023-10-03T14:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$BTC is up but all proxies are in the toilets it's like #bitcoin price doesn't have an impact on miners earnings. Except for $CIFR and $MSTR All other should be 20-25% higher compared to recent history $MARA $CLSK $HUT $BITF $RIOT Will patience be rewarded"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1715437140211908612)  2023-10-20T18:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$CIFR correlation to #Bitcoin is getting very close to squeeze levels. Seems like $DGHI squeeze risk was rebalanced. All others $MARA $RIOT $HUT $CLSK are lagging hard. A 10% pump on $BTC by mid-end November could make all of them 2X. I'm selling covered calls until then"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1720078892319617454)  2023-11-02T14:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@DG0270881295248 Well yes it will be halved but btc price should also more than double. Anyway it's not like it's a surprise for miners so idk why it would make a difference compared to [--] month ago. That halving should have been priced in for a while now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1721077585663111458)  2023-11-05T08:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$HUT is now the miner with the lowest correlation to $BTC. It's trading at the same ratio as when Bitcoin was in full fear mode at the end of December at 16k. It's not the most efficient miner but I don't think it's gonna get bankrupt either. $MARA $RIOT $CLSK $BITF $WULF $CIFR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1724450429264625670)  2023-11-14T15:33Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$BITO open interest [-----] contracts at $65 for Jan. That's a very weird bet even if ETF is approved i doubt $BTC will triple in [--] weeks. Maybe 10-20% upside for #bitcoin etf approval i'll publish spreads idea to maximize gains next week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1740465965069148357)  2023-12-28T20:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"US CPI for December: 3.3% YoY 0.3% MoM s.a. #Inflation numbers are dropping fast and if my forecast is correct in January the numbers will make the market VERY happy since it's showing deflation instead of usual inflation. We will be at 2.2% YoY and an insane -0.5% s.a. MoM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1744339777929818616)  2024-01-08T12:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@chetan_kaul @BritishHodl Multiplier is wrong though. Maybe if it was a 4billion market order. But otherwise that's not what is going to happen. My model is 5% of LTH sell every 2X of price the increased liquidity is what balances the price. But it's bullish for sure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1745334011243712681)  2024-01-11T06:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Breakthrough: I found out why #Bitcoin price is exponential I've spent a month moving lot of numbers around to finally end up with a very simple yet beautiful relationship"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1763473820717916304)  2024-03-01T07:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$WULF seems way too extended. I was a buyer at $2 i m betting on mean reversion now. Selling [--] $bito puts at [--] and buying [--] $WULF puts at $3 This comes out pretty much even. I doubt wulf can outperform BTC in june if BTC corrects down. So it's a low risk bet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1798803791736705385)  2024-06-06T19:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"You go into #bitcoin to get rich you stay in #bitcoin to not get poor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1801832843280007263)  2024-06-15T04:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Got an early assignment on my short puts of $NKE usually early assignement is followed by a short time reversal of trend. Let's see if $NKE gets a bounce"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1808402852659761644)  2024-07-03T07:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BITO dividend forecast for this month is $1.50 . Caution: This Month forecast and next [--] months might be less accurate. As the end of fiscal year impacts distributions in unclear ways + $BITO has changed from holding [--] months futures to [--] month futures only"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1816194416027263057)  2024-07-24T19:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$BITO dividend for July month is : $1.45 Forecast was spot on It is not yet available on my website as i'm working and bettering the model. So for monthly $BITO forecast be sure to follow. $BITO dividend forecast for this month is $1.50 . Caution: This Month forecast and next [--] months might be less accurate. As the end of fiscal year impacts distributions in unclear ways + $BITO has changed from holding [--] months futures to [--] month futures only. https://t.co/QG9te9fp2B $BITO dividend forecast for this month is $1.50 . Caution: This Month forecast and next [--] months might be less accurate. As"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1818889751484604909)  2024-08-01T06:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Market is boring. $BTC is at the same price it was [--] month ago. When will it go to the moon If you think this way you are trading wrong. I've made about 4% return every month since march with #Optionselling on #bitcoin proxies. Find a way to profit when others give up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1825815652373843977)  2024-08-20T08:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BITO dividend estimation for August: $1.27-$1.41 [----] is my new revamped model. [----] is the estimation of the first model. This time I'll try selling calls [--] weeks out and see if I get early assigned. Hopefully i'll keep both dividend and premium"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1827081172192526372)  2024-08-23T20:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I've added a page to my website to publish $BITO dividend. It's using my newest model and this month it's $1.27 During the month until the last week it will show the temporary expected dividend if $BTC stays flat. https://financialtoolsbuilder.com/bitoforecast https://financialtoolsbuilder.com/bitoforecast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1828800393826193591)  2024-08-28T14:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"I reversed my model to find the final price of $BITO at the end of fiscal year. We should end at $17.5-17.7 (after oct 1st div). With the recent behavior change of [--] month contract (instead of 2)the dividend will be easier to predict. The forecast should be even better next year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1830920299266642157)  2024-09-03T10:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"There is a lot of confusion around $BITO. Some dividend investors jumping in after seeing the Dividend yield This is NOT a typical dividend stock You will lose money if you treat it as such. Here are couple of facts on how the $BITO ETF works:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1831292611149066672)  2024-09-04T11:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"1/ $BITO ETF holds one month forward contract on the price of #Bitcoin . So it forces them to buy $BTC at the end of the month for usually slightly more than the price of today. If the price of $BTC ends the month higher than it started the ETF made money otherwise they lost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1831292615590887715)  2024-09-04T11:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2/Every month they roll the contracts by selling current month and buying next month #bitcoin contract. When they do this swap they REALIZE profit on their current contract (or loss). The original amount buys next contract. The profit will become the dividend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1831292619160223851)  2024-09-04T11:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"3/ You can also see that they hold treasury bills. This is the collateral for the contracts they buy and it will give a return of about 4.5% like you get today in government bonds. This will also become dividend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1831292621458690413)  2024-09-04T11:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"4/How much is $BITO dividend From the profits are removed fees and expenses then they are divided by the number of months left until the end of the fiscal year. So if there is $1 of realized profit on Dec with [--] months left to EOY it gives $0.1 dividend each month until Oct"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1831292623803302258)  2024-09-04T11:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"5/ By contract $BITO funds has to pay all the profits as dividend before end of their fiscal year. So 100% of the ETF increase in price will be given back as dividend. This is set up so they don't have to pay taxes in their fund but YOU WILL BE TAXED as ordinary dividend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1831292626399621407)  2024-09-04T11:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"6/ This is the equivalent of buying and selling #bitcoin EVERY MONTH to realize short term capital gains. Is that a problem YES. You likely are paying more taxes for NO reasons. I repeat DO NOT BUY $BITO only for the dividend. Instead buy #bitcoin directly or $BITB $IBIT $FBTC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1831292629255917625)  2024-09-04T11:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"7/ The only reason you should own $BITO is if you are trading options with it For example: Covered calls on $BITO is a great way to generate cash when the crypto market is stagnant. Please teach others by sharing this thread to anyone posting about their $BITO dividend gains"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1831292631923433490)  2024-09-04T11:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@growth_port Oh yeah i forgot to put this clearly The thread was already long :( September 30th is fiscal year end. So dividend reset to [--] after oct 1st distribution. As btc goes up you will underperform bitcoins etf because dividend is tax event. If you keep btc long term its less tax"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1831305262289891377)  2024-09-04T12:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$MARA at resistance. $RIOT at March [----] level. $BITF 8% away from resistance $CLSK finally at reasonable price $CIFR at resistance and 15% away from strong resistance It seems like #bitcoin miners have finally cooled down. Now we just need to be grind our teeth and be patient"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1832073133882265974)  2024-09-06T15:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"There is already [--] World Liberty Financial listed on coinmarketcap. And [--] more on Everyone is out there to get money from Trumpers. http://pump.fun http://pump.fun"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1835667248280744188)  2024-09-16T13:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Just found out about this amazing company called Mullen $MULN If you had bought [---] MILLIONS shares for $1.2B in [----] you would now be the proud owner of ONE SINGLE SHARE worth $12 The stock split history is legendary"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1836046641876414830)  2024-09-17T14:16Z [---] followers, 11K engagements


"@SrmabekianJ It's dropping faster than i can take screenshots :p"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1836076669389652335)  2024-09-17T16:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I wrote an article about $BITO and why it's NOT a typical dividend stock. Quotes : - You will underperform #bitcoin by holding $BITO - In the long term $BITO price can go down but cant go up - $BITO options are MUCH more complex than regular options https://substack.com/home/post/p-149262408 https://substack.com/home/post/p-149262408"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1838138063093903411)  2024-09-23T08:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$BITO october 1st dividend forecast is $1.32 The cut off date has been reached. #bitcoin moves will not change the October dividend anymore. This is the end of the fiscal year (and we only had [--] so far) so there might be some differences with what the model forecasted"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1838972178563301706)  2024-09-25T16:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"These are the $BITO covered call positions I'm opening based on the $1.32 dividend forecasted by my model here: If $BTC is flat during the weekend i'll open more of the same positions. If it moves i'll post my new covered calls. https://financialtoolsbuilder.com/bitoforecast https://financialtoolsbuilder.com/bitoforecast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1839667985734062423)  2024-09-27T14:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"How much do you want to model $BITO price and dividend based on the moves of $BTC I spent couple hours on this today and it looks pretty cool You can drag the BTC price to see BITO price + dividend. Please tell me if there are some key feature needed before I finalize it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1839693068842221627)  2024-09-27T15:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Here are the final covered call I have for $BITO ex dividend day. We shall see how many get assigned early If BTC continues like this though I might get assigned on everything . If BTC continues like this though I might get assigned on everything "  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1840805202112250365)  2024-09-30T17:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Time to go short $MSTR and long $BITO with the no loss strategy I shared before. Sell $BITO puts buy $MSTR puts with the profits. At this level it is highly unlikely for mstr to drop less than #bitcoin in the event of a correction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1843642682264244282)  2024-10-08T13:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Want to understand MicroStrategy "infinite money glitch" Read here: Preview: -At current price $MSTR could issue 300M new shares exchanging them up to 930k #bitcoins - it is the duty of $MSTR to dilute - Intrinsic value of $MSTR is about $76. https://open.substack.com/pub/rationaltrades/p/microstrategy-infinite-money-glitchr=tiy8v&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/rationaltrades/p/microstrategy-infinite-money-glitchr=tiy8v&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1844478905488687601)  2024-10-10T20:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Got an early assignment on $BITF $2 options. That usually happens when short traders take profit. It is often followed by some bounce"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1844735450742661510)  2024-10-11T13:42Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@supplyshocks The amount of #bitcoin $MSTR can buy by diluting the stock is insane. They could buy $63B dollars of bitcoin (1 Million $btc) if they dilute until their stock fair value of $76 https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1844478905488687601 Want to understand MicroStrategy "infinite money glitch" Read here: https://t.co/GuHQVni8Se Preview: -At current price $MSTR could issue 300M new shares exchanging them up to 930k #bitcoins - it is the duty of $MSTR to dilute - Intrinsic value of $MSTR is about $76. https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1844478905488687601 Want to understand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1845097578288824490)  2024-10-12T13:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Today mining is a profitable business. And many are worried that when $btc reward decrease no one will want to secure the network. Let's say that bitcoin fees and price will not suffice. Today security is free but if it wasn't wouldn't you pay to secure your #bitcoins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1845425714201342291)  2024-10-13T11:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"If you are finding this post after November 1st because you are confused as to why $BITO dividend suddenly dropped you should have followed me before. Dividend should be about $0.25 It represent $BTC move between 24th and 30th Sept. Don't expect high div to be back until Feb"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1848379643574755635)  2024-10-21T15:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"And the next [--] dividends after that : December 1st and December 31st Will be between $0.07 and $0.14"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1848381914689970542)  2024-10-21T15:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"FREE MONEY ALERT: $BITO option market is mispricing the dividend. I took this screenshot with $BITO at $20.48 We expect dividend to be [----] so price would drop to [-----] So the distance to Call [----] and Put [--] is about the same and should be the same price. BUT IT'S NOT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1851724542084894740)  2024-10-30T20:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Last chance for the free money through arbitrage dividend $BITO play is today We need $BTC to stay flat during the night. If you expect a #bitcoin bounce on Friday the call options are very cheap. (though it's not my style of trading) FREE MONEY ALERT: $BITO option market is mispricing the dividend. I took this screenshot with $BITO at $20.48 We expect dividend to be [----] so price would drop to [-----] So the distance to Call [----] and Put [--] is about the same and should be the same price. BUT IT'S NOT https://t.co/lB2qpkkowC FREE MONEY ALERT: $BITO option market is mispricing the dividend. I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1852040585168724183)  2024-10-31T17:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BITO dividend at $0.99 Well that's a bummer it's completely out of expectation this is gonna cost me some money. One explanation could be that they do an extra monthly distribution. Yes. That's the reason. The Nov 1st distribution is considered to be same calendar year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1852223305702318289)  2024-11-01T05:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"AI #KamalaHarris is crying funny. Btw it was harder than expected to get her to cry many models don't want to do real people"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1854101089022349753)  2024-11-06T09:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@unusual_whales I should try that at work with my boss if he tells me that i'm fired"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1854615677253922894)  2024-11-07T20:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$BITF pre market volatility is WILD 18% drop and 10% pump in just [--] hours. Hope you got your seat belt on #bitcoin ride is starting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1856302497276506213)  2024-11-12T11:46Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Sooo here we go again. I've remade a new $BITO model. And I would estimate the [--] December distributions to be about $0.99 The pending estimate for February is $0.25 (will only be final on Jan 24th based on how #bitcoin move see thread for calculating yourself)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1856452861741133900)  2024-11-12T21:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@IonicDigital "Our miner fleet has an average of [--] j/TH as of September [--] 2024." Ouch. every public mining company is doing better. The time it took to plug in the miners was outrageous"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1858751693053132951)  2024-11-19T05:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"If you are considering buying $BITO call option to play #bitcoin [----] pump understand what you are dealing with first. You could end up like this. $BITO gives back as dividend ALL the profits it makes from $BTC going up. A call ITM will depreciate EVERY MONTH through dividends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1858787927267901646)  2024-11-19T08:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$BITO option market is pricing in about $1 of dividend for december. This is what my calculation also forecast ($0.99). No arbitrage possible this month"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1859976211675705518)  2024-11-22T15:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@elinagar But look at the win. They are changing arguments no more illegal drugs laundering or ecological arguments. They are accepting the new paradigm of $btc becoming a central piece of finance and are just trying to balance the other way around. They have capitulated. Bitcoin has won"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1861856424160043507)  2024-11-27T19:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$BITO dividend for November is $0.996491 What I forecasted was [----]. Last month error was substancial enough to better my understanding of how this fund works. Next month dividend (coming on 31st Dec not jan 1st) will also be close to $0.99 Share your forecast below Sooo here we go again. I've remade a new $BITO model. And I would estimate the [--] December distributions to be about $0.99 The pending estimate for February is $0.25 (will only be final on Jan 24th based on how #bitcoin move see thread for calculating yourself) https://t.co/SghinzDWAd Sooo here we go again. I've remade a new $BITO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1862717526859284530)  2024-11-30T04:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"" $BITO is up 13% this month the dividend will also go up " Wrong This month $BTC price action does not impact the December Dividend. It will be around $0.99 Variable dividends are coming back on Feb 1st 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1869021996476256697)  2024-12-17T14:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"How much will $BITO dividend be if $BTC reach $100K in [----] You can now check it yourself $BITO price and dividend modeling based on #bitcoin price IS LIVE Try it out here : And tell me what you think https://financialtoolsbuilder.com/bitomodel https://financialtoolsbuilder.com/bitomodel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1842127835869171847)  2024-10-04T09:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$BITO November 1st dividend will surprise many unaware investors. I believe it will be about $0.25 it represent $BTC move between 24th and 30th Sept Thank to multi day rollout of contracts they should have captured profits If you don't understand why it's not $1+ again follow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/RationalTrades/status/1842935352560099408)  2024-10-06T14:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

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