#  @POLR_Investing POLR POLR posts on X about $tmdx, in the, market, business the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1861633741057323008/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] +129% - [--] Month [------] +46% - [--] Months [-------] -97% - [--] Year [----------] +13,927% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1861633741057323008/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -58% - [--] Months [--] -21% - [--] Year [---] +217% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1861633741057323008/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +1.30% - [--] Month [-----] +1.40% - [--] Months [-----] +39% - [--] Year [-----] +650% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1861633741057323008/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) 36.19% [finance](/list/finance) 26.67% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 7.62% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 6.67% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 1.9% [countries](/list/countries) 1.9% [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) 0.95% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 0.95% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 0.95% **Social topic influence** [$tmdx](/topic/$tmdx) #18, [in the](/topic/in-the) 16.19%, [market](/topic/market) 11.43%, [business](/topic/business) 9.52%, [ai](/topic/ai) 8.57%, [$iren](/topic/$iren) 7.62%, [$nu](/topic/$nu) 5.71%, [$nbis](/topic/$nbis) 5.71%, [growth](/topic/growth) 4.76%, [debt](/topic/debt) 4.76% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@jonahlupton](/creator/undefined) [@manthantweets1](/creator/undefined) [@seekvalue1990](/creator/undefined) [@mathlonning](/creator/undefined) [@levies](/creator/undefined) [@surfing2freedom](/creator/undefined) [@forestviewcap](/creator/undefined) [@nietschecapital](/creator/undefined) [@tashfeenekram](/creator/undefined) [@ophirgottlieb](/creator/undefined) [@fransbakker9812](/creator/undefined) [@agrippainv](/creator/undefined) [@mechmaster17](/creator/undefined) [@colby17201470](/creator/undefined) [@polemicuss](/creator/undefined) [@zastocks](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@wealthyreadings](/creator/undefined) [@galacticbarrier](/creator/undefined) [@knagnida](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock (TMDX)](/topic/$tmdx) [Iris Energy Limited (IREN)](/topic/$iren) [NuCypher (NU)](/topic/$nu) [Nebius Group N.V. Class A Ordinary Shares (NBIS)](/topic/$nbis) [Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)](/topic/$lmnd) [Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) [Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)](/topic/$hnge) [MercadoLibre Inc (MELI)](/topic/$meli) [The Root Network (ROOT)](/topic/$root) [American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)](/topic/$aeo) [Shopify Inc (SHOP)](/topic/$shop) [Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)](/topic/$hims) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Figma, Inc. (FIG)](/topic/$fig) [Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares (PGY)](/topic/$pgy) [fuboTV Inc. (FUBO)](/topic/$fubo) [Gap Inc (GAP)](/topic/$gap) [Victoria's Secret & Co. (VSCO)](/topic/$vsco) [Etsy Inc (ETSY)](/topic/$etsy) [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo) [Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)](/topic/$lly) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "$TMDX Q4 [----] Revenue Estimate: $156M in-line with analyst consensus Q4 [----] Earnings Estimate: $0.64 70% higher than analyst consensus FY Revenue expected to be $601M $1M higher than management's guide. First and foremost will be assessing financial performance and guidance but also interested to hear any updates on next gen OCS and international expansion. I think they can guide 20%+ top line growth with room to run if the aforementioned can gain traction. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020745812288921740 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020745812288921740" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/2020745812288921740) 2026-02-09T06:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HNGE Just reported another great quarter. This business is way too cheap. Keep in mind the EV of this company is about $2.5bn after accounting for the AH move. Results - Q4 Revenue $171M 46% growth. Beat on guide of 10%+. - FY Revenue $588M 51% growth. - Q4 FCF of $62M. 36% margin - FY FCF of $183M. 31% margin. - Q4 GAAP Profitability of $32M. - Net Cash of $480M. Guidance FY Revenue of $737M. 25% growth. Operating Margin 100bps YoY improvement to 21%. Diluted weighted average shares to increase 1.5M or 2% excluding any repurchases on their remaining share buyback program ($200M). Valuation" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/2021586758018777134) 2026-02-11T14:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "One of my biggest misses this year was selling $AEO $GAP $VSCO too early when the trends were clear" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1996953868660281621) 2025-12-05T14:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$ETSY AI agents will be a big part of how we shop in the not-so-distant future. To help lay the groundwork we partnered with Shopify Etsy Wayfair Target and Walmart to create the Universal Commerce Protocol a new open standard for agents and systems to talk to each other across https://t.co/8gDxDWjF9q AI agents will be a big part of how we shop in the not-so-distant future. To help lay the groundwork we partnered with Shopify Etsy Wayfair Target and Walmart to create the Universal Commerce Protocol a new open standard for agents and systems to talk to each other across https://t.co/8gDxDWjF9q" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/2010492170864599397) 2026-01-11T23:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This seems to be a common defense of legacy SaaS but I cant get around to it. Your limited IT resources will be freed up by canceling your expensive legacy SaaS and hiring a team of 4/5 (can expand even more with offshore) to vibe code and maintain said ERP. Significantly cheaper than perpetual annual license fees and now you have your own support team in house able to react and scale more quickly. Obviously the implementation costs will be significant but thats one-time. Box CEO @levie's defense of software over vibe-coded n-of-1 internal tools: "If you're Ford and you're doing your supply" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/2018874286426010014) 2026-02-04T02:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This seems even more relevant now. Some seem to be puzzled as to why the belly of AI the data center networking semiconductors and custom silicon plays are getting hit at the same time SaaS is. They see it as contradictory. However AI being real is even more bearish than if it is not. AI is real biggest job displacement of all time demand at the top of the funnel screeches to a halt impacts trickle down to everyone from SaaS to Infrastructure AI isnt real hyperscalers incinerated billions demand dries up throughout the AI ecosystem multiples compress Kind of funny how the biggest secular" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/2020171482551243022) 2026-02-07T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$LFMD LifeMD sitting here at a meager $120M EV and sitting just above 52-week lows. + Revenue of 190M and growing 25% YoY. + Adj. EBITDA of $14M and expected to grow 25% QoQ in Q4. YTD has grown triple digits. + $50M net cash. + 50% of revenue coming from weight management. + Just partnered with $NVO for the Wegovy pill. + Existing partnership with $LLY and will likely sell their oral pill if/once it gets FDA approval in early Q2. The valuation and catalysts are there for this trade to make a lot of sense. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014471551073112451" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/2014471551073112451) 2026-01-22T22:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Surfing2freedom @JonahLupton @ManthanTweets1 @ForestViewCap Quite simply it will fill it if the earnings report is bad and wont if its good. Not just because some lines on a chart say so" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1946601147742949565) 2025-07-19T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$TMDX January Transplant Update Total Transplant Volume: [----] (flat MoM +2% YoY) DCD Volume: [---] (+9% MoM +54% YoY) DCD Share: 39% of total transplants (vs 26% in Jan 2025). January saw continued momentum in DCD transplants with [---] another monthly record driven by Liver. DCD Liver is closing in on representing 50% of all Liver transplants. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021647169569390804 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021647169569390804" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/2021647169569390804) 2026-02-11T18:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The only operational fundamentals that matter (revenue profit cash flow) [--]. Revenue growth is accelerating [--]. Company makes money via GAAP. If not is there a path [--]. FCF including SBC is positive. If not is there a path [--]. Debt is reasonable. Net cash is a double ++" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1867678146059022373) 2024-12-13T21:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "8. Best to keep your scope small allowing you to drive conviction on your decisions. [--]. Comparison is the thief of joy. There will always be a stock going up higher than yours. [--]. In the end do the catalysts outweigh the negatives Are the tailwinds greater than the headwinds" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1867678149443744113) 2024-12-13T21:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$NU and $MELI on the short watchlist. Two great companies suffering from Brazils economic situation. Once we see stabilization (maybe 3-6 months) will revisit" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1870169978378350632) 2024-12-20T18:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@seekvalue1990 It looks like transplant volumes have come in lower again for Q4 per OPTN. This is not necessarily a bad thing as long as DCD continues taking share. However after backing into quarterly numbers from the Nov YTD data that does not seem to be the case. Heart looks concerning" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1874732945333973030) 2025-01-02T08:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "So $TMDX + did [---] more transplants in the quarter vs their forecast just a month ago + flight data has been accelerating since q3 into [----] + dcd transplants have been positive in December (heart has slowed slightly) + just bought another plane Yet the stock is at 52-week lows" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1881248362877616306) 2025-01-20T07:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We will get Jan DCD data before the Q4 call. Will be interesting. Bought a bit more here" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1881248365440381129) 2025-01-20T07:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Long $FNMA + trump admin tried to privatize it during first term + trump admin this time around seems even more optimistic + risk return is too favorable. Could go to 30+ in IPO Hoping for IPO late [----]. FNMA over FMCC as FNMA is smaller and will be first to go public" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1881510167147381133) 2025-01-21T01:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$TMDX Transplant volumes through three weeks are up 10%+ for Lung and Heart and 1% for Liver. Here are the assumptions I have to meet the high end of analyst's estimates for '25 revenue $528m. Transplant data sourced from OPTN" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1883913729613709611) 2025-01-27T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Please keep in mind even the high end of the rev for '25 is likely to not be enough to meet the 10k transplant target by 2028" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1883913732319006750) 2025-01-27T16:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "If they are to meet the 10k target $590m of rev for '25 seems to be the magic number. That translates to [----] transplants for '25 and a 25% CAGR for the remaining years gets you to 10k by 2028" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1883913734487482802) 2025-01-27T16:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ManthanTweets1 100% agree. It is something management has provided and aspires to achieve so it has value to benchmark to. As long as these trends continue it is positive. The next gen OCS is a big part of that. Fascinating to see in the data how much of an impact TMDX has had" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1883940367172788329) 2025-01-27T18:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Nietschecapital That is impossible for outsiders at this moment in time. Analysts at the company could not even guide revenue within 1-2% margin of error. In fact that was one of the reasons why the CFO left. I will be keeping my eye on the Jan DCD data that will be a leading indicator" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1884108491461369884) 2025-01-28T05:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "π§΅ $TMDX Two main inputs into trying to predict TMDX's revenue: 1) Flight data 2) DCD transplant volume (TMDX makes up a large %) This is a deep dive into #2 as I just got my hands on monthly DCD data from '22-'24. 4Q '24 DCD volume was the highest ever" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1885776141299974366) 2025-02-01T19:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Even though these numbers are encouraging. The continuation of the trend is all that matters given the narrative around TMDX and it being a growth stock. Jan DCD data will be critical in seeing value appreciation. Data is the true digital gold. πͺ" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1885776146945487131) 2025-02-01T19:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$TMDX Q4 Revenue I am estimating $120m for $TMDX. This is supported by the Flight and DCD data and $10m or 9% higher than analyst est. and mgmt. guide. With more internal flights as well as more DCD volume we should see an even larger beat in EPS. Estimates are only $0.15" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1886174010108420537) 2025-02-02T22:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "As you can see this is a limited data set so it is nowhere near definitive. Draw your own conclusions at your own risk. Thank you to @seekvalue1990 for the flight data. My attention will completely shift to [----] now" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1886174011924558184) 2025-02-02T22:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Last post on $TMDX until Jan DCD data is available. Thinking on a macro level I could see more money flowing into defensive sectors that are not affected by this tariff situation like healthcare. Less macro uncertainty should bring more investment" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1886423798888476960) 2025-02-03T14:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "π§΅Long $NBIS Price: $38.13 + $2bn+ in cash w/ no debt. + Founder led (owns 15% of biz). + EV is at $7bn. Also has 28% stake in ClickHouse. Conservatively that is another $1bn. So say the price you pay for the actual biz is $6bn. + Biz has ARR growing 5x to $800m by YE" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1888825805347627464) 2025-02-10T05:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$TMDX Jan DCD Update + Total Transplants grew 10% YoY. + DCD grew 28% YoY w/ Liver growing 36% YoY. [--] p.p. higher than the 23% est. YoY growth needed to reach $530m in '25 revenue. - Lung was down MoM and flat YoY. Lookahead: Feb has been a slower month the past two years" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1889195790767120763) 2025-02-11T06:12Z [----] followers, 131.2K engagements "@TashfeenEkram Nope for two reasons. 1) TMDX doesnt report their own transplant volume quarterly. 2) They have been growing out their fleet so it most certainly has outpaced transplant volume" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1894579580264222953) 2025-02-26T02:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$TMDX earnings preview and thoughts π§΅ Q4 - Revenue to be $120m+ and a earnings beat Q1 Guidance - I think or at least hope they go to guiding revenue quarterly - Based on the flights and transplant data I would expect $120-130m. Anything over would be bullish" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1895186618488860898) 2025-02-27T18:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "FY Guidance - I dont see them being overly aggressive here especially after the Q3 debacle. I could see $510-$530m leaving room to raise throughout the year. Anything over this would be extremely bullish. - Looking for more info on the Next-Gen OCS and international expansion" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1895186620560880093) 2025-02-27T18:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$TMDX Feb DCD Update The facts have certainly changed since the peak in Q2 [--]. Back then all [--] organs by rev were growing 50%+ YoY. It seems heart and lung rev has peaked in Q2 [--]. Now its solely relying on liver growth. I believe the market is in wait and see mode" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1899529723664896406) 2025-03-11T18:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Important to note the # of days when comparing MoM. Jan had [--] vs [--] in Feb. Total transplants would have increased 4% and DCD 12% if there were [--] days in Feb" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1899529728282739092) 2025-03-11T18:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "π§΅ $NBIS Cant help but buy more here. For less than $7bn you get the following: + Arkady one of the best founders/entrepreneurs in Europe and owns a significant portion with most of his net worth tied up in the business. Incentives align" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1901161488515031523) 2025-03-16T06:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@OphirGottlieb What about the bottom 50% I know its fairly obvious but would complete the analysis" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1908597996176236582) 2025-04-05T19:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$TMDX Mar DCD Update What a blow out month for Transplant Volume. Most Total and DCD transplants since I have been tracking the data back to [----]. All three organs contributing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910356005835198667) 2025-04-10T15:35Z [----] followers, 92.6K engagements "I am back long. Only hesitation would be price cuts to get to this growth or competition contributing At the very least a net win for humanity. Will provide a Q1 revenue estimate in the coming days. NFA" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1910356008079151242) 2025-04-10T15:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "To add: + Annual budgets floating around next year suggest an increase in annual deficits. Flirting of $1tn for DoD which is crazy. + Doge committing to $150bn in annual savings well short of the initial goal. All this is leading to an increase in the 10yr. What do I see Rising yields 145% tariffs on China 10% global tariffs Inconsistent messaging Potential Chinese ADR delisting Rising U.S/China tension Global angst towards U.S [--] day tariff pause (what happens after) I dont think were out of the woods yet. What do I see Rising yields 145% tariffs on China 10% global tariffs Inconsistent" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1910465127150727481) 2025-04-10T22:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$TMDX Q1 Revenue Estimate I am estimating $140m for $TMDX based on a triangulation of flight and DCD data. I think that is the floor. Would not be surprised with $145m. $140m would be $15m or 15% higher than analyst est. and would put them on pace to do $600m+ in FY revenue" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914201040808821165) 2025-04-21T06:14Z [----] followers, 17K engagements "The range of outcomes between the two data points is much larger than in Q4 with flights only supporting about $135m. This could mean among other things that demand was so high that they had to use more third party or competition is contributing more to the transplant numbers" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914201042868126015) 2025-04-21T06:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Will be interested in operating margins and seeing if those tick back up into the double digits they double down on growth or both" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1914201044038361536) 2025-04-21T06:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "If you werent picking up $NU in the 9s and $MELI sub $1800 were you sleeping Tariffs only helped these two. $NU and $MELI on the short watchlist. Two great companies suffering from Brazils economic situation. Once we see stabilization (maybe 3-6 months) will revisit. $NU and $MELI on the short watchlist. Two great companies suffering from Brazils economic situation. Once we see stabilization (maybe 3-6 months) will revisit" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920603208428167274) 2025-05-08T22:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$TMDX what a great quarter. Congrats to the longs. $TMDX Q1 Revenue Estimate I am estimating $140m for $TMDX based on a triangulation of flight and DCD data. I think that is the floor. Would not be surprised with $145m. $140m would be $15m or 15% higher than analyst est. and would put them on pace to do $600m+ in FY revenue https://t.co/PX7Y2wpO80 $TMDX Q1 Revenue Estimate I am estimating $140m for $TMDX based on a triangulation of flight and DCD data. I think that is the floor. Would not be surprised with $145m. $140m would be $15m or 15% higher than analyst est. and would put them on pace" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920604343272669695) 2025-05-08T22:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$NBIS one of the most hated business models (unjustified imo) right now but they have so many other quality companies under their umbrella as well. JUST IN: ClickHouse is in talks to raise hundreds of millions in a new funding round led by Khosla Ventures tripling its [----] valuation to $6B. This is HUGE. $NBIS owns a 28% stake in ClickHouse which is now worth a quarter of its entire market cap. π₯ https://t.co/AgfGLI372K JUST IN: ClickHouse is in talks to raise hundreds of millions in a new funding round led by Khosla Ventures tripling its [----] valuation to $6B. This is HUGE. $NBIS owns a 28%" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1920995892875706486) 2025-05-10T00:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$TMDX April DCD Update Since my last update $TMDX is up a modest 50%+. Continued DCD growth coming off a monster March is encouraging. Lung was the only organ to decrease MoM. Should put $TMDX on pace to exceed their updated FY25 revenue guidance of $575m provided last week" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922182537494794695) 2025-05-13T06:50Z [----] followers, 95K engagements "π§΅ $IREN was a company I stumbled upon during my research of $NBIS. Very much looking forward to their earnings. I share my insights below but highly recommend following @FransBakker9812 and @Agrippa_Inv if interested in $IREN. They provide great insights and analysis. $IREN Earnings prediction - Reveal plans to move all mining to Sweetwater in [----] to make place in Childress for 100% AI/HPC capacity of 750MW. - Horizon [--] remains 50MW Critical IT load but 25MW remaining will not go to mining at Childress. - 50EH/s instead of 52EH/s this $IREN Earnings prediction - Reveal plans to move all" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1922639604714246478) 2025-05-14T13:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "If you are long $NVDA and believe the AI story you have to be just as bullish about solar. $FSLR seems like the best pick and shovel play in the energy space. Probably just not sexy enough. $NVDA not stopping overnight π +2% Bloomberg reported after hours that based on the repeal of the AI diffusion rules Nvidia may be eligible to sell [------] chips a year to the UAE until [----]. The market may be realizing that AI is not as cyclical as it thought. https://t.co/6oJd5wrbEy $NVDA not stopping overnight π +2% Bloomberg reported after hours that based on the repeal of the AI diffusion rules" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1922650328803016786) 2025-05-14T13:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "π§΅$NU I am amazed every time I look over their earnings. A true neobank. IMO the best in the world with an enormous TAM. I have seen this slide posted around a few times but would like to add additional context to emphasis the operational efficiency here" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1924151359709786542) 2025-05-18T17:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "π§΅ $NU Cost to Acquire I mentioned in my last post that their cost to serve is market setting but their cost to acquire may be even better" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924320417512063465) 2025-05-19T04:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It is clear $NU offers it all best-in-class customer experience wider access to financial services and below-market pricing on numerous products all while doing it with healthy and expanding profit margins" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924320427079274941) 2025-05-19T04:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The market shook off Moodys but what about tariffs. Feels like that has basically been forgotten about yet the ETR right now is 6x what it was at the end of [----]. The trickle down effects of this will be immense. Nothing then all at once. Something/Someone has to give. MOODYS JUST ISSUED ITS FIRST-EVER U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE -- CUTTING THE RATING DUE TO RISING GOVERNMENT DEBT π³ https://t.co/oZpcUQHv9l MOODYS JUST ISSUED ITS FIRST-EVER U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE -- CUTTING THE RATING DUE TO RISING GOVERNMENT DEBT π³ https://t.co/oZpcUQHv9l" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1924672956879282264) 2025-05-20T03:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Bessent also just said that tariff rates will go back to "reciprocal" levels if countries do not make trade deals with the US during the 90-day pause. Yet the S&P wants to hit ATHs" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1924674411954659477) 2025-05-20T03:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Here we gooooo Trump is literally addicted to the deals $FNMA I am giving very serious consideration to bringing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public. I will be speaking with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency William Pulte among others and will be I am giving very serious consideration to bringing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public. I will be speaking with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency William Pulte among others" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1925349202852286804) 2025-05-22T00:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$SNOW First let me say I think Snowflake is a great product and I tend to heavily weigh that in my investment decisions but Who looks at this and thinks it's a good investment. A terrible company for shareholders great for employees. Extreme abuse of SBC" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1926308168029687842) 2025-05-24T16:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Id assume absolutely nothing can go wrong $HIMS DROPS 5-IN-1 SEX + HAIR LOSS PILL π₯ https://t.co/xcKJ4fZU0a $HIMS DROPS 5-IN-1 SEX + HAIR LOSS PILL π₯ https://t.co/xcKJ4fZU0a" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1926811906507002044) 2025-05-26T01:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$TSLA To grasp the market ahead for FSD it is important to understand the S Curve or the Technology Adoption Lifecycle. I know in Fintwit it can seem as if everyone is already aware of the opportunity that lies ahead for $TSLA but the reality is that 95% of the population is hesitant skeptical or just straight up oblivious. For years Elon has promised "full self-driving" by "the end of this year" yet true level [--] autonomy remained elusive until recently. This is a big year for $TSLA FSD as the advancements in AI have enabled TSLA to reach the Chasm or inflection point. The Chasm is the" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1926986177564778800) 2025-05-26T12:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$TMDX It is almost as if Transmedics is the one solely responsible for all of the DCD growth π€ The stock has almost doubled YTD so who knows where we go from here in the short term. It does look like we have built a nice base above $120. In the next twelve months I see a few catalysts that could drive the stock higher including next-gen OCS heart and liver steady or increased margins and international expansion. I think the next-gen systems could be a huge growth driver by enabling them to take the same type of market share that they have with liver. Will have a May DCD update in a couple of" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1928331666805989488) 2025-05-30T06:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$MGNI Just got caught up on their earnings and there were many good takeaways. Positive catalysts include: Margin Expansion/AI EBITDA margins continue to expand from 19% to 25% and expect meaningful margin expansion in [----] and beyond. Netflix partnership Expanding Management remains bullish about the partnership and sees the partnership continuing to accelerate throughout the year (e.g. EMEA expansion). 1/2" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1929690611260522860) 2025-06-03T00:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I see a lot of people suggesting $RIVN or $LMND as the next 10x stock after $PLTR $HIMS and $HOOD. And I am just dumbfounded because these are terrible businesses. First $RIVN The company that will be loss making and free cash flow negative for years even after the new R2. The company that sells $1.50 for a $1 (of course consumers love the product). The company that is trying to raise $2 billion via debt at 10% interst rate. The company who only has exposure to the US in a middle of a bear auto market especially for EVs. The company that has fallen far behind on autonomy and only recently" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1930118669855531021) 2025-06-04T04:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Well I guess happy Thursday to the $NBIS bulls π π§΅ $NBIS Cant help but buy more here. For less than $7bn you get the following: + Arkady one of the best founders/entrepreneurs in Europe and owns a significant portion with most of his net worth tied up in the business. Incentives align. π§΅ $NBIS Cant help but buy more here. For less than $7bn you get the following: + Arkady one of the best founders/entrepreneurs in Europe and owns a significant portion with most of his net worth tied up in the business. Incentives align" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1930702209773113702) 2025-06-05T19:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$IREN is a coiled spring and the bull case is pretty simple. + About to reach [--] eh/s at the end of 1H [----]. + This means even after the run up you are getting a profitable BTC mining business for $2.2bn with annualized earnings of about $250m. + This is a 9x multiple. A fair value for a BTC miner that has grown its footprint and operations. However $IREN is about to become much more than a Bitcoin miner. + What is not priced in is a 75MW (50MW IT Load) liquid-cooled AI data center in West Texas going live in 2H [----]. + With conservative assumptions of $1.6m in revenue per MW (similar to" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1931769203100402149) 2025-06-08T17:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Matt Garman January [--] 2025: "The other big constraint is power. two to three generations from where we are in AI were going to need one to five gigawatts of power about a medium city. Jensen Huang March [--] 2025: "The amount of computation we have to do is [---] times more easily. We are now a powerlimited industry." Satya Nadella Dec [--] 2024: "Power yes I am not chip supply constrained" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1931769205625426424) 2025-06-08T17:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@mechmaster17 I wont argue that. 20x strictly for a BTC miner might be a bit high but sentiment can always change" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1931875505403281779) 2025-06-09T00:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Colby17201470 Customer pre payments or project-based debt would be most preferred. Could do convertible notes like CORZ. They have also thrown out a JV as well" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1931917487605445105) 2025-06-09T03:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$TMDX May DCD Update The stock has steadily risen 15% from last month and not much has changed on the DCD front. Seems to be continued execution at a high level from the $TMDX team. DCD volume has come off its highs in April but is still healthy and well above what seems to be the new floor of 500+. We have been experiencing a significant increase in DCD volume so will be interesting to see what happens from here. For context [----] DCD monthly average was [---]. Important to note May and June were the highest months in [----] for total transplants. Still well on pace to exceed their FY25 revenue" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1932427523981242375) 2025-06-10T13:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@polemicuss It really is that simple isnt it" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1932448601239900430) 2025-06-10T14:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$IREN BTC ops will provide $250m in annual income. Giving it a 10x multiple right now. AI/HPC [--] MW data center goes live EOY at Childress (Horizon 1). Looking to Colo it. Just did a convertible note to fund through completion. Multiple Horizon sites are on the table and moving BTC ops. Childress will be energized at [---] MW EOY" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1932885665995178218) 2025-06-11T19:40Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements "@ZaStocks Completely agree. This one checks a whole lot of the boxes for a great investment. SBC is also already reasonable for how early this is" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1933146821934891280) 2025-06-12T12:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HNGE the latest IPO in the healthcare space It seems like no one is really talking about it but it has grabbed my attention. My initial thoughts below: Market Cap: $3.3bn Net Cash: 700m (after IPO) + Growth is reaccelerating with revenue analyst estimates seeming low. + Already experiencing operational efficiency enabling GAAP profitability and FCF + No debt + Founder led with almost 20% ownership post-IPO + Great client retention and NPS score + Top rated app (no not the dating app) with 90k reviews and a [---] rating Assume in [----] they reach $715m in sales with 20% FCF margins or 150mm in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1936131337242427626) 2025-06-20T18:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Robinhood Strategies Relative Performance Assessment Month [--] I figured as a fun experiment I would test out the Robinhood Strategies product. User Experience As expected sign up was a breeze. The product is treated as a separate account in the app and provides commentary on the portfolio whether its for significant changes or just keeping you up to date on market impacting news. The future projections view is insightful and I think will/should get people excited about saving and investing. Portfolio Structure I set the portfolio to mimic a long-term investment account that was not going to" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1939551732339470750) 2025-06-30T05:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$IREN its so early. Rough Annual assumptions Revenue: $70mm (Blended rate of $4 gpu/hour; currently offer H100s at $2) D&A: $25m (conservative [--] year life) Overhead and electricity: $2m (electricity currently about $500k a year) (Allocated overhead on a per MW basis and added more for cushion) About $40m flowing to the bottom line or 60% profit margins. $IREN just increased their market cap $800mm overnight. Full expansion to [-----] Blackwell GPUs translates to 300m in operating profit or $6bn in enterprise value taking a conservative 20x multiple. $IREN is pleased to announce the expansion of" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940771329122111980) 2025-07-03T13:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$TMDX June Transplant Update June reached a new record for overall transplants in a given month with [----] across all three organs. DCD came in at [---] flat MoM and 53% increase YoY. Heart saw the most amount of DCD transplants in a given month with [---] a 10% MoM increase and 47% YoY increase. Q2 Recap Total and DCD transplants are at record levels. Based on this Q2 revenue should be north of $170m and well above analyst estimates in the $140s. Will provide a more detailed analysis later in the week. Looking Ahead It will be interesting to see how Q3 shapes up especially based on what happened" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1943334027320021327) 2025-07-10T15:38Z [----] followers, 18.4K engagements "$IREN XAI just built the best LLM with the largest AI dedicated data center. It is clear all of the companies below have super talented people working for them. The one key differentiator is compute and power. XAI built Colossus which leads in GPU scale (200k H100/H200s) and power consumption (300MW) with plans to expand to 1M GPUs and 2GW to stay ahead. XAI can do all of this on their own but many others cannot and they need to catch up. $IREN could deploy an AI colocation data center as big or bigger than Colossus at Childress with the first phase ready within six months. They have the land" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1943533165127008716) 2025-07-11T04:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@WealthyReadings Thanks very helpful. Agreed that the lung market isnt a needle mover currently for $TMDX. However even if it was US lung transplants are at [--] year highs on a quarterly basis both in terms of total transplants and DCD. Based on this seems to be an irrational dip. Watching" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1943735907116261846) 2025-07-11T18:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$TMDX Q2 [----] Revenue Estimate: $170-$175m Well above consensus ($146m) and most other estimates. Over the past two quarters my quarterly revenue estimates have been off by a combined $3m. I see some people worried about a raise to FY guidance. With $170m in Q2 and 1H revenue at $310m a raise to $600m+ should be a given. Revenue could stay flat to Q2 in H2 (similar to what it did in [----] believe it or not) and FY revenue would be $660m. With that being said we are seeing some easing in the flight data for Q3 and without proper guidance and messaging the market can become a bit irrational" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1945347175107715095) 2025-07-16T04:58Z [----] followers, 26.8K engagements "@galacticbarrier A FY guide will do that. Look what happened after Q1. A beat was known then too. Margins will play a key role too" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1945475566427087138) 2025-07-16T13:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$GOOGL personally speaking really impressed with Gemini" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1946178287543144668) 2025-07-18T12:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$TMDX Q2 [----] Earnings Estimate: $0.82 90%+ higher than analyst estimates This estimate is from a 100+ line model and I think I beat this up as much as I can financially. Now it is time to hear from Waleed and management on how they are doing operationally. Competition with OrganOx is now coming into play with flight approval and this will be something to closely monitor with Flight and DCD data to see if Transmedics is losing share in liver. Again management commentary on the remainder of the year will be important as focus will quickly shift to Q3 and Q4. We know there will be a dip in Q3" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1946968955886952464) 2025-07-20T16:22Z [----] followers, 14.5K engagements "I think management is conservative and allows another raise in Q3. In [----] mgmt upped $30m in q1 and $40m in q2. I think they got a little ahead of themselves. The guide was still right but I think it was a bit too aggressive too early for Waleed. I think a $20m raise this quarter still gives them breathing room to raise again in q3" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1946972312026104183) 2025-07-20T16:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@knagnida Yes I believe they will get above $600m as well. But this is about management setting expectations to the street. Waleed likes to under promise over deliver" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1946973154628309130) 2025-07-20T16:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Give me all of $FIG please" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1947517663044927993) 2025-07-22T04:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Out of all the meme stocks and pump and dumps this week I am actually intrigued with $AEO. I think it actually has some legs to stand on. Super cheap at cyclical lows if it comes back in style and growth reaccelerates a rerating will come. Could be the next $ANF" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948236371321098396) 2025-07-24T04:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Went long $OPFI today for an earnings play. + Not identical to $PGY but a good play off of it as a tech-enabled underwriter. + Transitioning towards a more capital-light and data-intensive fintech model like $PGY. + Revised FY earnings up last quarter with record quarterly revenues. + Consumer still was/is healthy. Subprime is not seeing any weakness per $SYF. NFA" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948240497329275003) 2025-07-24T04:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Robinhood Strategies Relative Performance Assessment Month [--] Robinhood Strategies just eked out ahead of QQQ but was behind the S&P and my long-term investment account. Most notably Robinhood Strategies reallocated some of the funds to take advantage of the shift in spending in defense sectors both here in the US and globally by adding an aerospace and defense ETF through XAR" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1949710292167929945) 2025-07-28T05:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$FIG Robinhood filled my order with one share Blessed" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1950926840303890915) 2025-07-31T14:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@JonahLupton Agreed. Really good quarter this is a buy and forget it for ten years. So much growth ahead with good management to execute on the opportunity" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1951059850538131599) 2025-07-31T23:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$TMDX A bit late but congrats to all the bulls. Directionally correct on the EPS - all you can really ask for - but was deplorably off on the revenue estimate. Hit the guide spot on. Revenue The number surprised me and my estimation was off due to a lower Revenue per DCD transplant number. It seems more of the growth is coming from DBD in Liver and Heart as the Revenue per Total Transplants is still increasing. This is potentially signaling some competitors are attributing to the DCD growth. Something to keep an eye on. Income and Margins This was the star of the show. 100%+ beat at $0.92." [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1951107169543127523) 2025-08-01T02:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "My favorite excerpts from the call below: Market Tailwinds Congress are driving a national initiative to modernize The U. S. Transplant system to enable greater utilization of donor organs to meet the growing demand for more and better organ transplantation. More recently this July the European Society of Organ Transplantation or ESOT published a call for action paper in The Lancet the premier medical journal highlighting the global importance of organ transplantation. Specifically the paper reinforced the urgent need for healthcare systems to prioritize investments in organ transplantation" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1951107172533772518) 2025-08-01T02:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$ROOT This company is already what $LMND is trying to be yet is 2/3rds the cost even after a 100% run up. You can simply say Lemonade is valued at $2.8bn and therefore Root has 50% upside being valued at $1.8bn but I am just going to focus on the fundamentals and operational catalysts of Root to support the upside here (which I think supports even more than 50% upside). Root caught my attention because it is a company that is going through the profitability inflection point from a high growth cash burning model to a model centered on sustainable profitability. This forces a fundamental" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952018862209191961) 2025-08-03T14:48Z [----] followers, 12.2K engagements "What do you mean by narrow You can compare just the Car business of the two and it is the same story. $ROOT is at a larger scale (IFP revenue etc.) and is even growing much faster on a percentage basis. Root grew IFP 11% QoQ and 23% YoY while $LMND grew 10% and 9% respectively. Root is doing this while also having superior loss ratios (56% vs 88% for LMND car). I think $LMND brands themselves as more of an AI play and spends more but it is not bearing any fruit. $ROOT has the more profitable telematics model while doing all the things Lemonade does like ML marketing signup in seconds file a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952163387481243843) 2025-08-04T00:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It is a peer analysis. $LMND is a peer so I was comparing the valuation of the two to give context. I also noted that it is beside the point and the upside is completely supported by fundamentals and operational efficiency from Root regardless of Lemonade's valuation. It certainly does not have to be one or the other but just because Root is succeeding definitely does not mean Lemonade is more likely to succeed. That is a false connection fallacy. With that being said I really do hope both succeed as that would be good for the industry but Lemonade has continued to incinerate capital quarter" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952244612594077813) 2025-08-04T05:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$OPFI Huge win here. Dont know what more you can ask for Record revenue and net income. Raised guidance for revenue and net income. Guiding for $1.42 in EPS for the year while already at $0.83 through six months. A raise of 16%. This should be at $13+ conservatively. I trimmed at the open as my position was disproportionately large from averaging down into the slow bleed into earnings. Went long $OPFI today for an earnings play. + Not identical to $PGY but a good play off of it as a tech-enabled underwriter. + Transitioning towards a more capital-light and data-intensive fintech model like" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953088115960127759) 2025-08-06T13:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HNGE Up 40% since this post and 22% today after earnings. If you haven't yet I urge you to listen to the earnings call or at least the Q&A. You can sense the excitement and energy from Dan and that is why I love investing in founder-led companies. The company is managed extremely well exemplified by the operating leverage shown across the business. As I alluded to in the post below the analyst estimates for FY [----] were too low going into the call. When revenue estimates are too low for [----] this has a compounding effect on revenue estimates for [----] and then ultimately what flows to the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953324067789934613) 2025-08-07T05:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@mvcinvesting I am unable to look into the details yet. Did they mention anything about contract terms (i.e. on demand vs multi year) I think the whole LT thesis is dependent on that. Otherwise need to be flexible but can ride the wave until big picture changes" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1953470489713611078) 2025-08-07T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$ROOT Just doubled my share position at $92 and took a short term call option. Earnings were great I thought. Continued execution. Dont like the guide to a loss next quarter but its due to one-time expenses and should be adjusted out. 26% down is way overblown. Partnership channel is accelerating and new writings are triple YoY through that channel. Approval now in Washington. Model getting even better.launched new pricing model in several states increasing estimated customer lifetime values by 20% on average. CEL said in some states this impact could be even larger. Doubling down and" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1953515938084536779) 2025-08-07T17:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$TMDX July Transplant Update July was our first month of anticipated seasonality. Total Transplants for July were down 7% and DCD down 8% MoM. Total Transplants increased 1% and DCD 50% YoY. Important Caveat Based on Q2 results there seems to be more competition contributing to the transplant numbers than what I have seen historically especially in Liver and Lung (e.g. Lung continues to experience strong transplant growth yet revenues are flat). Looking Back In prior years there is typically a few monthly dips in-year. For example in [----] this occurred in April July and September. See chart" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1955080491905778162) 2025-08-12T01:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$FUBO I like $FUBO here to end the year going into [----]. I feel like Fubo is still sitting here at $3.62/$1.2bn market cap because the market is still treating it like well Fubo and of course the risk of the deal not going through. The company has been burning cash ever since it began operating so it is hard to argue that the abysmal stock performance hasn't been warranted. However Fubo is about to obtain the scale it has been yearning for to make the business model work. The merger will result in Fubo shareholders getting a 30% stake in a combined company of Hulu Live and Fubo adding roughly" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956457796125512087) 2025-08-15T20:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$NU Another solid earnings and the quoted tweet is a great synopsis on why operationally $NU makes such a great long-term investment. It is clear that $NU alongside $MELI are the two best companies in their region. These should be long-term holdings in everyone's portfolio. Lots of runway to grow ahead. Earnings Snapshot + Revenue and Net Income both grew 40% YoY FXN. + Deposits up 41% YoY FXN. Mexico and Colombia are really starting to scale. + Average ARPAC continues to increase while the cost to serve remains relatively flat. The longer the customer is on the platform the more the company" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956473923668672755) 2025-08-15T21:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Also forgot to mention institutional ownership has increased about 33% since announcing the transaction and has only been increasing" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1956731040082604372) 2025-08-16T14:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Just realized I passed over [----] followers. I started this page in more of a selfish manner treating it as a place where I could journal my thoughts and pressure test my theses in public. For the most part I thought I would be essentially writing/talking to myself. If you have been following me for some time you will know I do not post much and that is intentional because I feel like there is a lot of noise on fintwit. I do not want to play any part in that and want to provide as much signal and substance I can. So I figured now would be a good time to assess that. These are all the positions" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1959308385368572262) 2025-08-23T17:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$IREN can hit $200m+ Cloud ARR fast and more importantly profitably. Looking to hopefully get some more details on customers/contracts. And while all this is going on in Canada Horizon [--] is continuing its build out. Looking forward to what management has to say about next steps especially as completion is nearing. Earnings on Thursday AH. $IREN is pleased to announce an expansion of its AI Cloud business. Purchase of 4.2k NVIDIA Blackwell B200 GPUs - Initial commitment made from cash financing conversations underway - Deploying at Prince George data center - Expands AI Cloud to approximately" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1960187773274427587) 2025-08-26T03:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$HOOD Managed Strategies Month [--] Performance Strategies 1.3% S&P 1.3% QQQ 0.9% Long Term Account 7.9% ------------------------------- Trading Account 26.7% (opportunity cost) The Managed Strategies Portfolio has beat the QQQ for two months in a row now but has yet to beat the S&P and has the lowest cumulative return during this bull run. Still interested to see how it performs in a downturn. The Managed Strategies Portfolio increased its US Exposure to 77% from 74% and increased its ST bonds to 4% from 2%. International stock exposure went down to 18% from 23%" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1960937992752644355) 2025-08-28T05:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "VP Product at Shopify pitching the $IREN thesis π $IREN has been telling us it's a data center company not a bitcoin miner. The world is starting to believe them. $IREN has been telling us they are serious about Cloud - and not just chasing a quick win in colocation. The world is starting to believe them. They continue to $IREN has been telling us it's a data center company not a bitcoin miner. The world is starting to believe them. $IREN has been telling us they are serious about Cloud - and not just chasing a quick win in colocation. The world is starting to believe them. They continue to" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1961045227495424253) 2025-08-28T12:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$IREN There are so many nuggets from IREN's earnings that I would like to highlight but the one I want to double click into for now is the fact that IREN has become an Nvidia Preferred Cloud Partner. To be recognized validated and marketed by a $4 trillion company is huge for a startup in the space and cannot be overstated. When this happened with $NBIS the stock increased over 70% from October [----] to February [----] and more importantly was the first step in a partnership that continued to deepen and evolve. Nebius Timeline: October [--] 2024: Nebius announces the launch of a new AI-native" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1961278324040237185) 2025-08-29T04:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$FUBO now too Happy Friday everyone https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fubo-sports-skinny-sports-launch-130000265.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fubo-sports-skinny-sports-launch-130000265.html" [X Link](https://x.com/POLR_Investing/status/1961427053221134577) 2025-08-29T13:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@POLR_Investing POLRPOLR posts on X about $tmdx, in the, market, business the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence stocks 36.19% finance 26.67% technology brands 7.62% cryptocurrencies 6.67% automotive brands 1.9% countries 1.9% fashion brands 0.95% celebrities 0.95% social networks 0.95%
Social topic influence $tmdx #18, in the 16.19%, market 11.43%, business 9.52%, ai 8.57%, $iren 7.62%, $nu 5.71%, $nbis 5.71%, growth 4.76%, debt 4.76%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @jonahlupton @manthantweets1 @seekvalue1990 @mathlonning @levies @surfing2freedom @forestviewcap @nietschecapital @tashfeenekram @ophirgottlieb @fransbakker9812 @agrippainv @mechmaster17 @colby17201470 @polemicuss @zastocks @grok @wealthyreadings @galacticbarrier @knagnida
Top assets mentioned TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock (TMDX) Iris Energy Limited (IREN) NuCypher (NU) Nebius Group N.V. Class A Ordinary Shares (NBIS) Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) MercadoLibre Inc (MELI) The Root Network (ROOT) American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) Shopify Inc (SHOP) Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) Bitcoin (BTC) Figma, Inc. (FIG) Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares (PGY) fuboTV Inc. (FUBO) Gap Inc (GAP) Victoria's Secret & Co. (VSCO) Etsy Inc (ETSY) Novo-Nordisk (NVO) Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"$TMDX Q4 [----] Revenue Estimate: $156M in-line with analyst consensus Q4 [----] Earnings Estimate: $0.64 70% higher than analyst consensus FY Revenue expected to be $601M $1M higher than management's guide. First and foremost will be assessing financial performance and guidance but also interested to hear any updates on next gen OCS and international expansion. I think they can guide 20%+ top line growth with room to run if the aforementioned can gain traction. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020745812288921740 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020745812288921740"
X Link 2026-02-09T06:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HNGE Just reported another great quarter. This business is way too cheap. Keep in mind the EV of this company is about $2.5bn after accounting for the AH move. Results - Q4 Revenue $171M 46% growth. Beat on guide of 10%+. - FY Revenue $588M 51% growth. - Q4 FCF of $62M. 36% margin - FY FCF of $183M. 31% margin. - Q4 GAAP Profitability of $32M. - Net Cash of $480M. Guidance FY Revenue of $737M. 25% growth. Operating Margin 100bps YoY improvement to 21%. Diluted weighted average shares to increase 1.5M or 2% excluding any repurchases on their remaining share buyback program ($200M). Valuation"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"One of my biggest misses this year was selling $AEO $GAP $VSCO too early when the trends were clear"
X Link 2025-12-05T14:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ETSY AI agents will be a big part of how we shop in the not-so-distant future. To help lay the groundwork we partnered with Shopify Etsy Wayfair Target and Walmart to create the Universal Commerce Protocol a new open standard for agents and systems to talk to each other across https://t.co/8gDxDWjF9q AI agents will be a big part of how we shop in the not-so-distant future. To help lay the groundwork we partnered with Shopify Etsy Wayfair Target and Walmart to create the Universal Commerce Protocol a new open standard for agents and systems to talk to each other across https://t.co/8gDxDWjF9q"
X Link 2026-01-11T23:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This seems to be a common defense of legacy SaaS but I cant get around to it. Your limited IT resources will be freed up by canceling your expensive legacy SaaS and hiring a team of 4/5 (can expand even more with offshore) to vibe code and maintain said ERP. Significantly cheaper than perpetual annual license fees and now you have your own support team in house able to react and scale more quickly. Obviously the implementation costs will be significant but thats one-time. Box CEO @levie's defense of software over vibe-coded n-of-1 internal tools: "If you're Ford and you're doing your supply"
X Link 2026-02-04T02:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This seems even more relevant now. Some seem to be puzzled as to why the belly of AI the data center networking semiconductors and custom silicon plays are getting hit at the same time SaaS is. They see it as contradictory. However AI being real is even more bearish than if it is not. AI is real biggest job displacement of all time demand at the top of the funnel screeches to a halt impacts trickle down to everyone from SaaS to Infrastructure AI isnt real hyperscalers incinerated billions demand dries up throughout the AI ecosystem multiples compress Kind of funny how the biggest secular"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$LFMD LifeMD sitting here at a meager $120M EV and sitting just above 52-week lows. + Revenue of 190M and growing 25% YoY. + Adj. EBITDA of $14M and expected to grow 25% QoQ in Q4. YTD has grown triple digits. + $50M net cash. + 50% of revenue coming from weight management. + Just partnered with $NVO for the Wegovy pill. + Existing partnership with $LLY and will likely sell their oral pill if/once it gets FDA approval in early Q2. The valuation and catalysts are there for this trade to make a lot of sense. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014471551073112451"
X Link 2026-01-22T22:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Surfing2freedom @JonahLupton @ManthanTweets1 @ForestViewCap Quite simply it will fill it if the earnings report is bad and wont if its good. Not just because some lines on a chart say so"
X Link 2025-07-19T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$TMDX January Transplant Update Total Transplant Volume: [----] (flat MoM +2% YoY) DCD Volume: [---] (+9% MoM +54% YoY) DCD Share: 39% of total transplants (vs 26% in Jan 2025). January saw continued momentum in DCD transplants with [---] another monthly record driven by Liver. DCD Liver is closing in on representing 50% of all Liver transplants. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021647169569390804 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021647169569390804"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The only operational fundamentals that matter (revenue profit cash flow) [--]. Revenue growth is accelerating [--]. Company makes money via GAAP. If not is there a path [--]. FCF including SBC is positive. If not is there a path [--]. Debt is reasonable. Net cash is a double ++"
X Link 2024-12-13T21:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"8. Best to keep your scope small allowing you to drive conviction on your decisions. [--]. Comparison is the thief of joy. There will always be a stock going up higher than yours. [--]. In the end do the catalysts outweigh the negatives Are the tailwinds greater than the headwinds"
X Link 2024-12-13T21:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$NU and $MELI on the short watchlist. Two great companies suffering from Brazils economic situation. Once we see stabilization (maybe 3-6 months) will revisit"
X Link 2024-12-20T18:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@seekvalue1990 It looks like transplant volumes have come in lower again for Q4 per OPTN. This is not necessarily a bad thing as long as DCD continues taking share. However after backing into quarterly numbers from the Nov YTD data that does not seem to be the case. Heart looks concerning"
X Link 2025-01-02T08:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"So $TMDX + did [---] more transplants in the quarter vs their forecast just a month ago + flight data has been accelerating since q3 into [----] + dcd transplants have been positive in December (heart has slowed slightly) + just bought another plane Yet the stock is at 52-week lows"
X Link 2025-01-20T07:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We will get Jan DCD data before the Q4 call. Will be interesting. Bought a bit more here"
X Link 2025-01-20T07:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Long $FNMA + trump admin tried to privatize it during first term + trump admin this time around seems even more optimistic + risk return is too favorable. Could go to 30+ in IPO Hoping for IPO late [----]. FNMA over FMCC as FNMA is smaller and will be first to go public"
X Link 2025-01-21T01:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$TMDX Transplant volumes through three weeks are up 10%+ for Lung and Heart and 1% for Liver. Here are the assumptions I have to meet the high end of analyst's estimates for '25 revenue $528m. Transplant data sourced from OPTN"
X Link 2025-01-27T16:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Please keep in mind even the high end of the rev for '25 is likely to not be enough to meet the 10k transplant target by 2028"
X Link 2025-01-27T16:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"If they are to meet the 10k target $590m of rev for '25 seems to be the magic number. That translates to [----] transplants for '25 and a 25% CAGR for the remaining years gets you to 10k by 2028"
X Link 2025-01-27T16:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ManthanTweets1 100% agree. It is something management has provided and aspires to achieve so it has value to benchmark to. As long as these trends continue it is positive. The next gen OCS is a big part of that. Fascinating to see in the data how much of an impact TMDX has had"
X Link 2025-01-27T18:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Nietschecapital That is impossible for outsiders at this moment in time. Analysts at the company could not even guide revenue within 1-2% margin of error. In fact that was one of the reasons why the CFO left. I will be keeping my eye on the Jan DCD data that will be a leading indicator"
X Link 2025-01-28T05:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"π§΅ $TMDX Two main inputs into trying to predict TMDX's revenue: 1) Flight data 2) DCD transplant volume (TMDX makes up a large %) This is a deep dive into #2 as I just got my hands on monthly DCD data from '22-'24. 4Q '24 DCD volume was the highest ever"
X Link 2025-02-01T19:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Even though these numbers are encouraging. The continuation of the trend is all that matters given the narrative around TMDX and it being a growth stock. Jan DCD data will be critical in seeing value appreciation. Data is the true digital gold. πͺ"
X Link 2025-02-01T19:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$TMDX Q4 Revenue I am estimating $120m for $TMDX. This is supported by the Flight and DCD data and $10m or 9% higher than analyst est. and mgmt. guide. With more internal flights as well as more DCD volume we should see an even larger beat in EPS. Estimates are only $0.15"
X Link 2025-02-02T22:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"As you can see this is a limited data set so it is nowhere near definitive. Draw your own conclusions at your own risk. Thank you to @seekvalue1990 for the flight data. My attention will completely shift to [----] now"
X Link 2025-02-02T22:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Last post on $TMDX until Jan DCD data is available. Thinking on a macro level I could see more money flowing into defensive sectors that are not affected by this tariff situation like healthcare. Less macro uncertainty should bring more investment"
X Link 2025-02-03T14:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"π§΅Long $NBIS Price: $38.13 + $2bn+ in cash w/ no debt. + Founder led (owns 15% of biz). + EV is at $7bn. Also has 28% stake in ClickHouse. Conservatively that is another $1bn. So say the price you pay for the actual biz is $6bn. + Biz has ARR growing 5x to $800m by YE"
X Link 2025-02-10T05:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$TMDX Jan DCD Update + Total Transplants grew 10% YoY. + DCD grew 28% YoY w/ Liver growing 36% YoY. [--] p.p. higher than the 23% est. YoY growth needed to reach $530m in '25 revenue. - Lung was down MoM and flat YoY. Lookahead: Feb has been a slower month the past two years"
X Link 2025-02-11T06:12Z [----] followers, 131.2K engagements
"@TashfeenEkram Nope for two reasons. 1) TMDX doesnt report their own transplant volume quarterly. 2) They have been growing out their fleet so it most certainly has outpaced transplant volume"
X Link 2025-02-26T02:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$TMDX earnings preview and thoughts π§΅ Q4 - Revenue to be $120m+ and a earnings beat Q1 Guidance - I think or at least hope they go to guiding revenue quarterly - Based on the flights and transplant data I would expect $120-130m. Anything over would be bullish"
X Link 2025-02-27T18:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"FY Guidance - I dont see them being overly aggressive here especially after the Q3 debacle. I could see $510-$530m leaving room to raise throughout the year. Anything over this would be extremely bullish. - Looking for more info on the Next-Gen OCS and international expansion"
X Link 2025-02-27T18:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$TMDX Feb DCD Update The facts have certainly changed since the peak in Q2 [--]. Back then all [--] organs by rev were growing 50%+ YoY. It seems heart and lung rev has peaked in Q2 [--]. Now its solely relying on liver growth. I believe the market is in wait and see mode"
X Link 2025-03-11T18:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Important to note the # of days when comparing MoM. Jan had [--] vs [--] in Feb. Total transplants would have increased 4% and DCD 12% if there were [--] days in Feb"
X Link 2025-03-11T18:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"π§΅ $NBIS Cant help but buy more here. For less than $7bn you get the following: + Arkady one of the best founders/entrepreneurs in Europe and owns a significant portion with most of his net worth tied up in the business. Incentives align"
X Link 2025-03-16T06:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@OphirGottlieb What about the bottom 50% I know its fairly obvious but would complete the analysis"
X Link 2025-04-05T19:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$TMDX Mar DCD Update What a blow out month for Transplant Volume. Most Total and DCD transplants since I have been tracking the data back to [----]. All three organs contributing"
X Link 2025-04-10T15:35Z [----] followers, 92.6K engagements
"I am back long. Only hesitation would be price cuts to get to this growth or competition contributing At the very least a net win for humanity. Will provide a Q1 revenue estimate in the coming days. NFA"
X Link 2025-04-10T15:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"To add: + Annual budgets floating around next year suggest an increase in annual deficits. Flirting of $1tn for DoD which is crazy. + Doge committing to $150bn in annual savings well short of the initial goal. All this is leading to an increase in the 10yr. What do I see Rising yields 145% tariffs on China 10% global tariffs Inconsistent messaging Potential Chinese ADR delisting Rising U.S/China tension Global angst towards U.S [--] day tariff pause (what happens after) I dont think were out of the woods yet. What do I see Rising yields 145% tariffs on China 10% global tariffs Inconsistent"
X Link 2025-04-10T22:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$TMDX Q1 Revenue Estimate I am estimating $140m for $TMDX based on a triangulation of flight and DCD data. I think that is the floor. Would not be surprised with $145m. $140m would be $15m or 15% higher than analyst est. and would put them on pace to do $600m+ in FY revenue"
X Link 2025-04-21T06:14Z [----] followers, 17K engagements
"The range of outcomes between the two data points is much larger than in Q4 with flights only supporting about $135m. This could mean among other things that demand was so high that they had to use more third party or competition is contributing more to the transplant numbers"
X Link 2025-04-21T06:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Will be interested in operating margins and seeing if those tick back up into the double digits they double down on growth or both"
X Link 2025-04-21T06:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If you werent picking up $NU in the 9s and $MELI sub $1800 were you sleeping Tariffs only helped these two. $NU and $MELI on the short watchlist. Two great companies suffering from Brazils economic situation. Once we see stabilization (maybe 3-6 months) will revisit. $NU and $MELI on the short watchlist. Two great companies suffering from Brazils economic situation. Once we see stabilization (maybe 3-6 months) will revisit"
X Link 2025-05-08T22:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$TMDX what a great quarter. Congrats to the longs. $TMDX Q1 Revenue Estimate I am estimating $140m for $TMDX based on a triangulation of flight and DCD data. I think that is the floor. Would not be surprised with $145m. $140m would be $15m or 15% higher than analyst est. and would put them on pace to do $600m+ in FY revenue https://t.co/PX7Y2wpO80 $TMDX Q1 Revenue Estimate I am estimating $140m for $TMDX based on a triangulation of flight and DCD data. I think that is the floor. Would not be surprised with $145m. $140m would be $15m or 15% higher than analyst est. and would put them on pace"
X Link 2025-05-08T22:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$NBIS one of the most hated business models (unjustified imo) right now but they have so many other quality companies under their umbrella as well. JUST IN: ClickHouse is in talks to raise hundreds of millions in a new funding round led by Khosla Ventures tripling its [----] valuation to $6B. This is HUGE. $NBIS owns a 28% stake in ClickHouse which is now worth a quarter of its entire market cap. π₯ https://t.co/AgfGLI372K JUST IN: ClickHouse is in talks to raise hundreds of millions in a new funding round led by Khosla Ventures tripling its [----] valuation to $6B. This is HUGE. $NBIS owns a 28%"
X Link 2025-05-10T00:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$TMDX April DCD Update Since my last update $TMDX is up a modest 50%+. Continued DCD growth coming off a monster March is encouraging. Lung was the only organ to decrease MoM. Should put $TMDX on pace to exceed their updated FY25 revenue guidance of $575m provided last week"
X Link 2025-05-13T06:50Z [----] followers, 95K engagements
"π§΅ $IREN was a company I stumbled upon during my research of $NBIS. Very much looking forward to their earnings. I share my insights below but highly recommend following @FransBakker9812 and @Agrippa_Inv if interested in $IREN. They provide great insights and analysis. $IREN Earnings prediction - Reveal plans to move all mining to Sweetwater in [----] to make place in Childress for 100% AI/HPC capacity of 750MW. - Horizon [--] remains 50MW Critical IT load but 25MW remaining will not go to mining at Childress. - 50EH/s instead of 52EH/s this $IREN Earnings prediction - Reveal plans to move all"
X Link 2025-05-14T13:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If you are long $NVDA and believe the AI story you have to be just as bullish about solar. $FSLR seems like the best pick and shovel play in the energy space. Probably just not sexy enough. $NVDA not stopping overnight π +2% Bloomberg reported after hours that based on the repeal of the AI diffusion rules Nvidia may be eligible to sell [------] chips a year to the UAE until [----]. The market may be realizing that AI is not as cyclical as it thought. https://t.co/6oJd5wrbEy $NVDA not stopping overnight π +2% Bloomberg reported after hours that based on the repeal of the AI diffusion rules"
X Link 2025-05-14T13:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"π§΅$NU I am amazed every time I look over their earnings. A true neobank. IMO the best in the world with an enormous TAM. I have seen this slide posted around a few times but would like to add additional context to emphasis the operational efficiency here"
X Link 2025-05-18T17:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"π§΅ $NU Cost to Acquire I mentioned in my last post that their cost to serve is market setting but their cost to acquire may be even better"
X Link 2025-05-19T04:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It is clear $NU offers it all best-in-class customer experience wider access to financial services and below-market pricing on numerous products all while doing it with healthy and expanding profit margins"
X Link 2025-05-19T04:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The market shook off Moodys but what about tariffs. Feels like that has basically been forgotten about yet the ETR right now is 6x what it was at the end of [----]. The trickle down effects of this will be immense. Nothing then all at once. Something/Someone has to give. MOODYS JUST ISSUED ITS FIRST-EVER U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE -- CUTTING THE RATING DUE TO RISING GOVERNMENT DEBT π³ https://t.co/oZpcUQHv9l MOODYS JUST ISSUED ITS FIRST-EVER U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE -- CUTTING THE RATING DUE TO RISING GOVERNMENT DEBT π³ https://t.co/oZpcUQHv9l"
X Link 2025-05-20T03:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Bessent also just said that tariff rates will go back to "reciprocal" levels if countries do not make trade deals with the US during the 90-day pause. Yet the S&P wants to hit ATHs"
X Link 2025-05-20T03:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Here we gooooo Trump is literally addicted to the deals $FNMA I am giving very serious consideration to bringing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public. I will be speaking with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency William Pulte among others and will be I am giving very serious consideration to bringing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public. I will be speaking with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency William Pulte among others"
X Link 2025-05-22T00:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$SNOW First let me say I think Snowflake is a great product and I tend to heavily weigh that in my investment decisions but Who looks at this and thinks it's a good investment. A terrible company for shareholders great for employees. Extreme abuse of SBC"
X Link 2025-05-24T16:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Id assume absolutely nothing can go wrong $HIMS DROPS 5-IN-1 SEX + HAIR LOSS PILL π₯ https://t.co/xcKJ4fZU0a $HIMS DROPS 5-IN-1 SEX + HAIR LOSS PILL π₯ https://t.co/xcKJ4fZU0a"
X Link 2025-05-26T01:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$TSLA To grasp the market ahead for FSD it is important to understand the S Curve or the Technology Adoption Lifecycle. I know in Fintwit it can seem as if everyone is already aware of the opportunity that lies ahead for $TSLA but the reality is that 95% of the population is hesitant skeptical or just straight up oblivious. For years Elon has promised "full self-driving" by "the end of this year" yet true level [--] autonomy remained elusive until recently. This is a big year for $TSLA FSD as the advancements in AI have enabled TSLA to reach the Chasm or inflection point. The Chasm is the"
X Link 2025-05-26T12:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$TMDX It is almost as if Transmedics is the one solely responsible for all of the DCD growth π€ The stock has almost doubled YTD so who knows where we go from here in the short term. It does look like we have built a nice base above $120. In the next twelve months I see a few catalysts that could drive the stock higher including next-gen OCS heart and liver steady or increased margins and international expansion. I think the next-gen systems could be a huge growth driver by enabling them to take the same type of market share that they have with liver. Will have a May DCD update in a couple of"
X Link 2025-05-30T06:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$MGNI Just got caught up on their earnings and there were many good takeaways. Positive catalysts include: Margin Expansion/AI EBITDA margins continue to expand from 19% to 25% and expect meaningful margin expansion in [----] and beyond. Netflix partnership Expanding Management remains bullish about the partnership and sees the partnership continuing to accelerate throughout the year (e.g. EMEA expansion). 1/2"
X Link 2025-06-03T00:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I see a lot of people suggesting $RIVN or $LMND as the next 10x stock after $PLTR $HIMS and $HOOD. And I am just dumbfounded because these are terrible businesses. First $RIVN The company that will be loss making and free cash flow negative for years even after the new R2. The company that sells $1.50 for a $1 (of course consumers love the product). The company that is trying to raise $2 billion via debt at 10% interst rate. The company who only has exposure to the US in a middle of a bear auto market especially for EVs. The company that has fallen far behind on autonomy and only recently"
X Link 2025-06-04T04:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Well I guess happy Thursday to the $NBIS bulls π π§΅ $NBIS Cant help but buy more here. For less than $7bn you get the following: + Arkady one of the best founders/entrepreneurs in Europe and owns a significant portion with most of his net worth tied up in the business. Incentives align. π§΅ $NBIS Cant help but buy more here. For less than $7bn you get the following: + Arkady one of the best founders/entrepreneurs in Europe and owns a significant portion with most of his net worth tied up in the business. Incentives align"
X Link 2025-06-05T19:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$IREN is a coiled spring and the bull case is pretty simple. + About to reach [--] eh/s at the end of 1H [----]. + This means even after the run up you are getting a profitable BTC mining business for $2.2bn with annualized earnings of about $250m. + This is a 9x multiple. A fair value for a BTC miner that has grown its footprint and operations. However $IREN is about to become much more than a Bitcoin miner. + What is not priced in is a 75MW (50MW IT Load) liquid-cooled AI data center in West Texas going live in 2H [----]. + With conservative assumptions of $1.6m in revenue per MW (similar to"
X Link 2025-06-08T17:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Matt Garman January [--] 2025: "The other big constraint is power. two to three generations from where we are in AI were going to need one to five gigawatts of power about a medium city. Jensen Huang March [--] 2025: "The amount of computation we have to do is [---] times more easily. We are now a powerlimited industry." Satya Nadella Dec [--] 2024: "Power yes I am not chip supply constrained"
X Link 2025-06-08T17:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@mechmaster17 I wont argue that. 20x strictly for a BTC miner might be a bit high but sentiment can always change"
X Link 2025-06-09T00:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Colby17201470 Customer pre payments or project-based debt would be most preferred. Could do convertible notes like CORZ. They have also thrown out a JV as well"
X Link 2025-06-09T03:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$TMDX May DCD Update The stock has steadily risen 15% from last month and not much has changed on the DCD front. Seems to be continued execution at a high level from the $TMDX team. DCD volume has come off its highs in April but is still healthy and well above what seems to be the new floor of 500+. We have been experiencing a significant increase in DCD volume so will be interesting to see what happens from here. For context [----] DCD monthly average was [---]. Important to note May and June were the highest months in [----] for total transplants. Still well on pace to exceed their FY25 revenue"
X Link 2025-06-10T13:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@polemicuss It really is that simple isnt it"
X Link 2025-06-10T14:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$IREN BTC ops will provide $250m in annual income. Giving it a 10x multiple right now. AI/HPC [--] MW data center goes live EOY at Childress (Horizon 1). Looking to Colo it. Just did a convertible note to fund through completion. Multiple Horizon sites are on the table and moving BTC ops. Childress will be energized at [---] MW EOY"
X Link 2025-06-11T19:40Z [----] followers, 10.6K engagements
"@ZaStocks Completely agree. This one checks a whole lot of the boxes for a great investment. SBC is also already reasonable for how early this is"
X Link 2025-06-12T12:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HNGE the latest IPO in the healthcare space It seems like no one is really talking about it but it has grabbed my attention. My initial thoughts below: Market Cap: $3.3bn Net Cash: 700m (after IPO) + Growth is reaccelerating with revenue analyst estimates seeming low. + Already experiencing operational efficiency enabling GAAP profitability and FCF + No debt + Founder led with almost 20% ownership post-IPO + Great client retention and NPS score + Top rated app (no not the dating app) with 90k reviews and a [---] rating Assume in [----] they reach $715m in sales with 20% FCF margins or 150mm in"
X Link 2025-06-20T18:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Robinhood Strategies Relative Performance Assessment Month [--] I figured as a fun experiment I would test out the Robinhood Strategies product. User Experience As expected sign up was a breeze. The product is treated as a separate account in the app and provides commentary on the portfolio whether its for significant changes or just keeping you up to date on market impacting news. The future projections view is insightful and I think will/should get people excited about saving and investing. Portfolio Structure I set the portfolio to mimic a long-term investment account that was not going to"
X Link 2025-06-30T05:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$IREN its so early. Rough Annual assumptions Revenue: $70mm (Blended rate of $4 gpu/hour; currently offer H100s at $2) D&A: $25m (conservative [--] year life) Overhead and electricity: $2m (electricity currently about $500k a year) (Allocated overhead on a per MW basis and added more for cushion) About $40m flowing to the bottom line or 60% profit margins. $IREN just increased their market cap $800mm overnight. Full expansion to [-----] Blackwell GPUs translates to 300m in operating profit or $6bn in enterprise value taking a conservative 20x multiple. $IREN is pleased to announce the expansion of"
X Link 2025-07-03T13:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$TMDX June Transplant Update June reached a new record for overall transplants in a given month with [----] across all three organs. DCD came in at [---] flat MoM and 53% increase YoY. Heart saw the most amount of DCD transplants in a given month with [---] a 10% MoM increase and 47% YoY increase. Q2 Recap Total and DCD transplants are at record levels. Based on this Q2 revenue should be north of $170m and well above analyst estimates in the $140s. Will provide a more detailed analysis later in the week. Looking Ahead It will be interesting to see how Q3 shapes up especially based on what happened"
X Link 2025-07-10T15:38Z [----] followers, 18.4K engagements
"$IREN XAI just built the best LLM with the largest AI dedicated data center. It is clear all of the companies below have super talented people working for them. The one key differentiator is compute and power. XAI built Colossus which leads in GPU scale (200k H100/H200s) and power consumption (300MW) with plans to expand to 1M GPUs and 2GW to stay ahead. XAI can do all of this on their own but many others cannot and they need to catch up. $IREN could deploy an AI colocation data center as big or bigger than Colossus at Childress with the first phase ready within six months. They have the land"
X Link 2025-07-11T04:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@WealthyReadings Thanks very helpful. Agreed that the lung market isnt a needle mover currently for $TMDX. However even if it was US lung transplants are at [--] year highs on a quarterly basis both in terms of total transplants and DCD. Based on this seems to be an irrational dip. Watching"
X Link 2025-07-11T18:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$TMDX Q2 [----] Revenue Estimate: $170-$175m Well above consensus ($146m) and most other estimates. Over the past two quarters my quarterly revenue estimates have been off by a combined $3m. I see some people worried about a raise to FY guidance. With $170m in Q2 and 1H revenue at $310m a raise to $600m+ should be a given. Revenue could stay flat to Q2 in H2 (similar to what it did in [----] believe it or not) and FY revenue would be $660m. With that being said we are seeing some easing in the flight data for Q3 and without proper guidance and messaging the market can become a bit irrational"
X Link 2025-07-16T04:58Z [----] followers, 26.8K engagements
"@galacticbarrier A FY guide will do that. Look what happened after Q1. A beat was known then too. Margins will play a key role too"
X Link 2025-07-16T13:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$GOOGL personally speaking really impressed with Gemini"
X Link 2025-07-18T12:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$TMDX Q2 [----] Earnings Estimate: $0.82 90%+ higher than analyst estimates This estimate is from a 100+ line model and I think I beat this up as much as I can financially. Now it is time to hear from Waleed and management on how they are doing operationally. Competition with OrganOx is now coming into play with flight approval and this will be something to closely monitor with Flight and DCD data to see if Transmedics is losing share in liver. Again management commentary on the remainder of the year will be important as focus will quickly shift to Q3 and Q4. We know there will be a dip in Q3"
X Link 2025-07-20T16:22Z [----] followers, 14.5K engagements
"I think management is conservative and allows another raise in Q3. In [----] mgmt upped $30m in q1 and $40m in q2. I think they got a little ahead of themselves. The guide was still right but I think it was a bit too aggressive too early for Waleed. I think a $20m raise this quarter still gives them breathing room to raise again in q3"
X Link 2025-07-20T16:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@knagnida Yes I believe they will get above $600m as well. But this is about management setting expectations to the street. Waleed likes to under promise over deliver"
X Link 2025-07-20T16:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Give me all of $FIG please"
X Link 2025-07-22T04:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Out of all the meme stocks and pump and dumps this week I am actually intrigued with $AEO. I think it actually has some legs to stand on. Super cheap at cyclical lows if it comes back in style and growth reaccelerates a rerating will come. Could be the next $ANF"
X Link 2025-07-24T04:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Went long $OPFI today for an earnings play. + Not identical to $PGY but a good play off of it as a tech-enabled underwriter. + Transitioning towards a more capital-light and data-intensive fintech model like $PGY. + Revised FY earnings up last quarter with record quarterly revenues. + Consumer still was/is healthy. Subprime is not seeing any weakness per $SYF. NFA"
X Link 2025-07-24T04:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Robinhood Strategies Relative Performance Assessment Month [--] Robinhood Strategies just eked out ahead of QQQ but was behind the S&P and my long-term investment account. Most notably Robinhood Strategies reallocated some of the funds to take advantage of the shift in spending in defense sectors both here in the US and globally by adding an aerospace and defense ETF through XAR"
X Link 2025-07-28T05:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FIG Robinhood filled my order with one share Blessed"
X Link 2025-07-31T14:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@JonahLupton Agreed. Really good quarter this is a buy and forget it for ten years. So much growth ahead with good management to execute on the opportunity"
X Link 2025-07-31T23:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$TMDX A bit late but congrats to all the bulls. Directionally correct on the EPS - all you can really ask for - but was deplorably off on the revenue estimate. Hit the guide spot on. Revenue The number surprised me and my estimation was off due to a lower Revenue per DCD transplant number. It seems more of the growth is coming from DBD in Liver and Heart as the Revenue per Total Transplants is still increasing. This is potentially signaling some competitors are attributing to the DCD growth. Something to keep an eye on. Income and Margins This was the star of the show. 100%+ beat at $0.92."
X Link 2025-08-01T02:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"My favorite excerpts from the call below: Market Tailwinds Congress are driving a national initiative to modernize The U. S. Transplant system to enable greater utilization of donor organs to meet the growing demand for more and better organ transplantation. More recently this July the European Society of Organ Transplantation or ESOT published a call for action paper in The Lancet the premier medical journal highlighting the global importance of organ transplantation. Specifically the paper reinforced the urgent need for healthcare systems to prioritize investments in organ transplantation"
X Link 2025-08-01T02:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$ROOT This company is already what $LMND is trying to be yet is 2/3rds the cost even after a 100% run up. You can simply say Lemonade is valued at $2.8bn and therefore Root has 50% upside being valued at $1.8bn but I am just going to focus on the fundamentals and operational catalysts of Root to support the upside here (which I think supports even more than 50% upside). Root caught my attention because it is a company that is going through the profitability inflection point from a high growth cash burning model to a model centered on sustainable profitability. This forces a fundamental"
X Link 2025-08-03T14:48Z [----] followers, 12.2K engagements
"What do you mean by narrow You can compare just the Car business of the two and it is the same story. $ROOT is at a larger scale (IFP revenue etc.) and is even growing much faster on a percentage basis. Root grew IFP 11% QoQ and 23% YoY while $LMND grew 10% and 9% respectively. Root is doing this while also having superior loss ratios (56% vs 88% for LMND car). I think $LMND brands themselves as more of an AI play and spends more but it is not bearing any fruit. $ROOT has the more profitable telematics model while doing all the things Lemonade does like ML marketing signup in seconds file a"
X Link 2025-08-04T00:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It is a peer analysis. $LMND is a peer so I was comparing the valuation of the two to give context. I also noted that it is beside the point and the upside is completely supported by fundamentals and operational efficiency from Root regardless of Lemonade's valuation. It certainly does not have to be one or the other but just because Root is succeeding definitely does not mean Lemonade is more likely to succeed. That is a false connection fallacy. With that being said I really do hope both succeed as that would be good for the industry but Lemonade has continued to incinerate capital quarter"
X Link 2025-08-04T05:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$OPFI Huge win here. Dont know what more you can ask for Record revenue and net income. Raised guidance for revenue and net income. Guiding for $1.42 in EPS for the year while already at $0.83 through six months. A raise of 16%. This should be at $13+ conservatively. I trimmed at the open as my position was disproportionately large from averaging down into the slow bleed into earnings. Went long $OPFI today for an earnings play. + Not identical to $PGY but a good play off of it as a tech-enabled underwriter. + Transitioning towards a more capital-light and data-intensive fintech model like"
X Link 2025-08-06T13:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HNGE Up 40% since this post and 22% today after earnings. If you haven't yet I urge you to listen to the earnings call or at least the Q&A. You can sense the excitement and energy from Dan and that is why I love investing in founder-led companies. The company is managed extremely well exemplified by the operating leverage shown across the business. As I alluded to in the post below the analyst estimates for FY [----] were too low going into the call. When revenue estimates are too low for [----] this has a compounding effect on revenue estimates for [----] and then ultimately what flows to the"
X Link 2025-08-07T05:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@mvcinvesting I am unable to look into the details yet. Did they mention anything about contract terms (i.e. on demand vs multi year) I think the whole LT thesis is dependent on that. Otherwise need to be flexible but can ride the wave until big picture changes"
X Link 2025-08-07T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$ROOT Just doubled my share position at $92 and took a short term call option. Earnings were great I thought. Continued execution. Dont like the guide to a loss next quarter but its due to one-time expenses and should be adjusted out. 26% down is way overblown. Partnership channel is accelerating and new writings are triple YoY through that channel. Approval now in Washington. Model getting even better.launched new pricing model in several states increasing estimated customer lifetime values by 20% on average. CEL said in some states this impact could be even larger. Doubling down and"
X Link 2025-08-07T17:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$TMDX July Transplant Update July was our first month of anticipated seasonality. Total Transplants for July were down 7% and DCD down 8% MoM. Total Transplants increased 1% and DCD 50% YoY. Important Caveat Based on Q2 results there seems to be more competition contributing to the transplant numbers than what I have seen historically especially in Liver and Lung (e.g. Lung continues to experience strong transplant growth yet revenues are flat). Looking Back In prior years there is typically a few monthly dips in-year. For example in [----] this occurred in April July and September. See chart"
X Link 2025-08-12T01:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FUBO I like $FUBO here to end the year going into [----]. I feel like Fubo is still sitting here at $3.62/$1.2bn market cap because the market is still treating it like well Fubo and of course the risk of the deal not going through. The company has been burning cash ever since it began operating so it is hard to argue that the abysmal stock performance hasn't been warranted. However Fubo is about to obtain the scale it has been yearning for to make the business model work. The merger will result in Fubo shareholders getting a 30% stake in a combined company of Hulu Live and Fubo adding roughly"
X Link 2025-08-15T20:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$NU Another solid earnings and the quoted tweet is a great synopsis on why operationally $NU makes such a great long-term investment. It is clear that $NU alongside $MELI are the two best companies in their region. These should be long-term holdings in everyone's portfolio. Lots of runway to grow ahead. Earnings Snapshot + Revenue and Net Income both grew 40% YoY FXN. + Deposits up 41% YoY FXN. Mexico and Colombia are really starting to scale. + Average ARPAC continues to increase while the cost to serve remains relatively flat. The longer the customer is on the platform the more the company"
X Link 2025-08-15T21:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Also forgot to mention institutional ownership has increased about 33% since announcing the transaction and has only been increasing"
X Link 2025-08-16T14:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Just realized I passed over [----] followers. I started this page in more of a selfish manner treating it as a place where I could journal my thoughts and pressure test my theses in public. For the most part I thought I would be essentially writing/talking to myself. If you have been following me for some time you will know I do not post much and that is intentional because I feel like there is a lot of noise on fintwit. I do not want to play any part in that and want to provide as much signal and substance I can. So I figured now would be a good time to assess that. These are all the positions"
X Link 2025-08-23T17:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$IREN can hit $200m+ Cloud ARR fast and more importantly profitably. Looking to hopefully get some more details on customers/contracts. And while all this is going on in Canada Horizon [--] is continuing its build out. Looking forward to what management has to say about next steps especially as completion is nearing. Earnings on Thursday AH. $IREN is pleased to announce an expansion of its AI Cloud business. Purchase of 4.2k NVIDIA Blackwell B200 GPUs - Initial commitment made from cash financing conversations underway - Deploying at Prince George data center - Expands AI Cloud to approximately"
X Link 2025-08-26T03:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$HOOD Managed Strategies Month [--] Performance Strategies 1.3% S&P 1.3% QQQ 0.9% Long Term Account 7.9% ------------------------------- Trading Account 26.7% (opportunity cost) The Managed Strategies Portfolio has beat the QQQ for two months in a row now but has yet to beat the S&P and has the lowest cumulative return during this bull run. Still interested to see how it performs in a downturn. The Managed Strategies Portfolio increased its US Exposure to 77% from 74% and increased its ST bonds to 4% from 2%. International stock exposure went down to 18% from 23%"
X Link 2025-08-28T05:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"VP Product at Shopify pitching the $IREN thesis π $IREN has been telling us it's a data center company not a bitcoin miner. The world is starting to believe them. $IREN has been telling us they are serious about Cloud - and not just chasing a quick win in colocation. The world is starting to believe them. They continue to $IREN has been telling us it's a data center company not a bitcoin miner. The world is starting to believe them. $IREN has been telling us they are serious about Cloud - and not just chasing a quick win in colocation. The world is starting to believe them. They continue to"
X Link 2025-08-28T12:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$IREN There are so many nuggets from IREN's earnings that I would like to highlight but the one I want to double click into for now is the fact that IREN has become an Nvidia Preferred Cloud Partner. To be recognized validated and marketed by a $4 trillion company is huge for a startup in the space and cannot be overstated. When this happened with $NBIS the stock increased over 70% from October [----] to February [----] and more importantly was the first step in a partnership that continued to deepen and evolve. Nebius Timeline: October [--] 2024: Nebius announces the launch of a new AI-native"
X Link 2025-08-29T04:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$FUBO now too Happy Friday everyone https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fubo-sports-skinny-sports-launch-130000265.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fubo-sports-skinny-sports-launch-130000265.html"
X Link 2025-08-29T13:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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