#  @OutspokenGeek OutspokenGeek OutspokenGeek posts on X about $intc, $nvda, $tsm, $be the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1155214554/interactions)  - [--] Week [----------] +1,130% - [--] Month [----------] +3,507,215% - [--] Months [----------] +962,699% - [--] Year [----------] +250,409% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1155214554/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +89% - [--] Month [--] +300% - [--] Months [--] +60% - [--] Year [---] -7.20% ### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1155214554/followers)  - [--] Week [---] +17% - [--] Month [---] +42% - [--] Months [---] +254% - [--] Year [---] +366% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1155214554/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [finance](/list/finance) [countries](/list/countries) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [currencies](/list/currencies) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [gaming](/list/gaming) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [social networks](/list/social-networks) **Social topic influence** [$intc](/topic/$intc), [$nvda](/topic/$nvda), [$tsm](/topic/$tsm), [$be](/topic/$be) #22, [money](/topic/money), [nvda](/topic/nvda), [stocks](/topic/stocks), [if you](/topic/if-you), [gpu](/topic/gpu), [microsoft](/topic/microsoft) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@fabknowledge](/creator/undefined) [@insaneanalyst](/creator/undefined) [@jrogrow](/creator/undefined) [@ericbalchunas](/creator/undefined) [@benbajarin](/creator/undefined) [@mrjivraj](/creator/undefined) [@mebfaber](/creator/undefined) [@lithosgraphein](/creator/undefined) [@chriswmayer](/creator/undefined) [@syouth1](/creator/undefined) [@walnutavevalue](/creator/undefined) [@iancutress](/creator/undefined) [@realmemes6](/creator/undefined) [@firstadopter](/creator/undefined) [@timmerfidelity](/creator/undefined) [@jaygoldberg](/creator/undefined) [@itstarh](/creator/undefined) [@riceandstirfry](/creator/undefined) [@andrewdbeer1](/creator/undefined) [@intel](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Intel Corporation (INTC)](/topic/$intc) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)](/topic/$tsm) [Bloom Energy Corporation (BE)](/topic/$be) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)](/topic/$amd) [Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO)](/topic/$avgo) [Spacemesh (SMH)](/topic/$smh) [intel (INTEL)](/topic/intel) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [General Electric Company (GE)](/topic/$ge) [COCOCOIN (COCO)](/topic/$coco) [QUALCOMM, Inc. (QCOM)](/topic/$qcom) [Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)](/topic/$mu) [RAMP (RAMP)](/topic/ramp) [Nike Inc (NKE)](/topic/$nke) [Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR)](/topic/$mpwr) [Bank of America (BAC)](/topic/bank-of-america) [United Microelectronic Corp. (UMC)](/topic/$umc) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "@MebFaber You are absolutely right. $DBMF is crushing it as a low-cost broad multi-asset trend following ETF. For a 0.95% expense its raking in assets compared to expensive incumbents like ABYAX and ASFYX with a better Sortino ratio Can you pretty please have them on your podcast" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1579970700370399232) 2022-10-11T23:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "What terrible advice @MorningstarInc is peddling these days - PRTNX really There are much cheaper index TIPS ETFs or Mutual Funds - It has better returns drawdowns and sortino ratio. Enough said What happened to Morningstar https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performances=y&symbol=PRTNX&benchmark=VIPSX https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1118049/6-bond-funds-for-navigating-inflation https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performances=y&symbol=PRTNX&benchmark=VIPSX https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1118049/6-bond-funds-for-navigating-inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1582889712905117696) 2022-10-20T00:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "What's more PRTNX is a load fund just because @PIMCO thinks retail investors are stupid enough to buy that in comparison to PRRIX let alone other index options. In what world does @MorningstarInc now recommend load mutual funds Does anyone at MorningStar review these articles" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1582891519802896384) 2022-10-20T00:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@MikeWShell @andrewdbeer1 @TomBrady Cherry picking a specific start date can show whatever you want. From [----] which is the longest available on portfoliovisualizer shows that it has better risk adjusted returns and a better sortino ratio - https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performances=y&symbol=LEXCX&benchmark=VFINX https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performances=y&symbol=LEXCX&benchmark=VFINX" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1593655708087554048) 2022-11-18T17:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The most underrated book in finance - Ch [--] (last section) and the graph below is all you need to understand how modern markets and finance ticks - https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691191362/adaptive-markets https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691191362/adaptive-markets" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1606373978414555136) 2022-12-23T19:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@EricBalchunas Fair enough. But since we were discussing $FCNTX I will bet anything that it's bigger than $AGTHX when you include CITs. Incidentally Will Danoff worked for Lynch so him doing decent for so long can't be a coincidence even if he's no Lynch" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1616280261284753409) 2023-01-20T03:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@RyanPKirlin Meh As an individual investor you want to own I-Bonds. Unlike TIPS they deliver without deflation or market driven low rates. Plus at 15K per person per year families with kids could sock away more than they allow in most 401ks (Unless u have aftertax roth in-plan conversion)" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1705059467132645834) 2023-09-22T03:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@IanCutress @intel Could you elaborate So it may not be ready for actual products" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1705246069754597852) 2023-09-22T15:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@IanCutress @intel I went back and checked wasn't it supposed to be 'Manufacturing Ready' by end Q2 [----] as per this - It's strange that most aren't talking about this. First they cancelled desktop MTL. Now laptop MTL is late completely missing the holiday sales season" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1705734897628012568) 2023-09-24T00:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@MebFaber Nothing special if you chart real returns instead. That's the biggest problem with (nominal treasury) bonds. Always has been always will be" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1706754774446883088) 2023-09-26T19:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@corry_wang @_fabknowledge_ Microsoft Research in Beijing was one of the first locations outside the US (after Cambridge) and they have been long involved in AI research. E.g. Speech related work has been going in MS since early 90s with the first products since [----] in Windows [--] and NT 3.51" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1707071780937241012) 2023-09-27T16:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@lithos_graphein Another little-known fact about them is that in the early 80s they were about to be killed by the Japanese DRAM cartel and @Fidelity was involved in bailing them out. The US govt should forever be thankful. Full Disclosure: I hold $MU From "One Up On Wall Street" -" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1718109873089490969) 2023-10-28T03:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@SubprimeShaman @EricBalchunas @JeffWeniger Right Here's the funny thing. You can open a Bank of America Merril Edge (zero commission brokerage) account and buy those $1mil fidelity funds with just $1K I suppose it's payback for brokerages making it easy to have a MMF backed checking account" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1721981147041890389) 2023-11-07T20:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@_fabknowledge_ $SOXX Meh . US only. Try $SMH instead. Any semiconductors ETF that doesn't include $TSM is a bit myopic and less diversified way to invest in the field IMO. BTW $SMH includes only US listed foreign stocks so best of both worlds" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1735571018708603107) 2023-12-15T08:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@_fabknowledge_ Okay looks like I was wrong $SOXX does have $TSM but it sure has a super weird weighting mechanism where both $TSM and $NVDA are pushed way down which is why I didn't see it. $SMH has a more sensible methodology where the relative rankings of the top stocks are maintained" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1735591514506416399) 2023-12-15T09:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@TimmerFidelity @newbietradereth Legend seems to be missing M/N. Market neutral But then perhaps L/S could cover that " [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1744791048323531016) 2024-01-09T18:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@MebFaber I'll bite since I invest in semis. Define "past few years". I'll bet that you are cherry picking. The only emerging markets that have semi stocks of note are Taiwan and Korea (some don't it consider emerging). Both $TSM and $UMC would have beat $NVDA in very narrow time periods" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1760097494678323325) 2024-02-21T00:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "🧵Everyone knows about $NVDA but what were my thoughts when I invested in $AMD back then AMD is a classic example of what Peter Lynch calls a Turnaround like Chrysler with the minivan. AMD's minivan would be the Zen CPU architecture + chiplets + TSMC /1 https://twitter.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1760813753732378731 My 2nd [---] bagger Sometimes lighting does strike twice in the same place. (TBH it's in the same high lightning area but still. Thanks to @chriswmayer doing much better at holding onto this one. Oh to be lucky enough to get a 3rd one in a lifetime🙂 https://t.co/1yWMKeDVCz" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1761236259400478951) 2024-02-24T03:47Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "In the meanwhile AMD was trying to survive with custom engineering work for various other large tech companies that would hate to see it go away. A completely new x86 CPU architecture like Zen takes about [--] years to fruition but you can see preliminary results in year [--]. /9" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1761236273589784736) 2024-02-24T03:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "By [----] the stars were aligning and anybody who knows the history and follows the industry could have seen that the risk reward was excellent for a bet on an AMD turnaround. AMD had shrunk to a tiny market cap of around [--] billion. But the upside could be quite significant. /10" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1761236276131602855) 2024-02-24T03:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Intel itself fumbled so badly that for the first time they were behind TSMC in process tech. This allowed AMD to have more efficient and lower power multicore processors in the key cloud data center market. AMD mgmt used the fortune to make good capital allocation decisions. /12" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1761236279579345341) 2024-02-24T03:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "They acquired Xlinix the leading FPGA company and were always no [--] in GPUs. Now they had all [--] digital compute technologies. The crypto boom certainly helped their GPU sales so by the time the AI boom came AMD would be sitting pretty as a real alternative to NVDA. /13" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1761236281135390819) 2024-02-24T03:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Mojo_flyin @IanCutress Yes but that volume seems low even for DC to me. Looks to me like they are going to ship MTL like niche products for DC as well. Either that or they have to be on 18A to beat AMD with server products and dont expect much uptake" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1763061272109813849) 2024-02-29T04:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@TimmerFidelity Banks are saying - "Ha we don't believe you Fed Next crisis you will freak out and drop rates all the way close to [--] anyway so why should we not rake it in like banksters" Who blinks first Irony is Fidelity is one of the few places with a bank like product that pays more" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1788740581562479052) 2024-05-10T01:19Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@MebFaber Too bad you didnt bother to research that the original quote is from Peter Lynch. Warren Buffett himself called Lynch for permission to quote that line in his shareholder letter" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1790405495653826742) 2024-05-14T15:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@_fabknowledge_ Visa $V has similar margins. Visa has pretty wide global scale but of course the amount of data they deal in is very miniscule in comparison. Unlikely to grow at the rate that nVidia is doing now. Full Disclosure: I hold nVidia" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1793396659650744456) 2024-05-22T21:40Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@EricBalchunas The reason is quite simply that fabless semi firms are asset light almost software like plays and don't have to invest the insane capex required to run a leading semi fab. But real R&D not just sales and marketing. VanEck should know having run the very successful $SMH semi ETF" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1796695018788569342) 2024-06-01T00:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@EricBalchunas $NVDA is a leading example. BTW Eric it's "en-vidia" not "na-vidia" 😜" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1796695573380354357) 2024-06-01T00:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@dylan522p @_fabknowledge_ Not sure I get the full context but Japanese small caps haven't decimated capital like the large caps did in the wake of the insane Japanese bubble. They have been the place to be even if you took an index approach (unlike Fidelity's long presence and excellent active one) -" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1797726971503489441) 2024-06-03T20:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@_fabknowledge_ Umm only the largest by market cap. Now if you had said most valuable . So many ways to define largest. Fortune uses revenue. Forbes uses what seems a more sensible at first glance blended metric but including assets boosts up all the beaten down banks" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1803202488763646305) 2024-06-18T23:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Why do totally uninformed (about the tech) commentators like @nirkaissar insist on comparing $NVDA to Cisco in [----] - An internet packet did not and does not care which router it went through so there wasn't much of a moat. nVidia has multiple moats /1 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-24/nvidia-s-murky-ai-future-isn-t-in-the-price-after-4-000-surge https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-24/nvidia-s-murky-ai-future-isn-t-in-the-price-after-4-000-surge" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1806039078615576968) 2024-06-26T18:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Cisco had just one core product area at the time. nVidia has re-invented itself multiple times and has a mature graphics and parallel throughput computation business without any of the AI stuff. It's software CUDA moat is extensive. You can run it on almost any nVidia GPU /2" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1806040471472640481) 2024-06-26T19:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Which means that most AI software folks find it super easy to experiment and run things from a small scale laptop GPU to massive datacenter level AI GPU farms. Network effects here. An internet packet by definition can route through any router or hardware with a TCP/IP stack /3" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1806041356172927020) 2024-06-26T19:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "nVidia has shown a remarkable ability and agility to enter new businesses starting with the console graphics Xbox in [----] nForce computer chipsets parallel computing media/mobile Tegra chips automotive chips Arm PC chips general purpose compute CPUs and finally AI. /4" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1806042721947455946) 2024-06-26T19:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@SzabolcsMihaly @TimmerFidelity I think RCA is a more apt comparison to a possibly world changing technology. (We shall see if AI is that) I could be biased but I don't think the $CSCO comparison quite applies to $NVDA as they weren't that unavoidable in the internet revolution - https://twitter.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1806039078615576968 Why do totally uninformed (about the tech) commentators like @nirkaissar insist on comparing $NVDA to Cisco in [----] - https://t.co/NLcm3IM2Pz An internet packet did not and does not care which router it went through so there wasn't much of a moat. nVidia" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1811206873716306175) 2024-07-11T01:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@psarofagis LOL. Happens whenever there's good news for rate cuts (like yesterday) anything and everything that is not large/mega growth shoots up. When the fed finally cuts -" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1811860147066814516) 2024-07-12T20:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@TimmerFidelity The graphs in the linkedin article are not clickable to zoom in unlike twitter so the experience is quite subpar Especially as your graphs have a ton of details. Any chance you could fix this" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1815559439916921042) 2024-07-23T01:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@witeken Something being missed is that the graph is wafer capacity not produced dies. Presumably the EUV nodes will be used more efficiently with a chiplet/tile approach and IO heavy parts use other nodes. Intel would also produce mostly CPU tiles with GPUs at TSMC. Intel might make do" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1816510531072929915) 2024-07-25T16:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@chriswmayer @mrjivraj Absolutely true on what others aren't willing/able to do. When I bought $AMD most of my friends thought I was crazy with it being a bankruptcy risk. Very few public managers can beat the conviction of an informed individual investor who doesn't care about benchmarks" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1816650300847194218) 2024-07-26T01:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@mrjivraj @chriswmayer I will be honest and say that no one really knows for sure. And that's just based on what I thought would happen to AMD in the last [--] years (see my thread on it). But here's my "informed speculation" - As long as x86 is relevant GPUs r used for graphics/parallel compute/AI /1" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1816657734391198145) 2024-07-26T02:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@mrjivraj @chriswmayer then AMD will continue to be important. ARM is a threat on the server side but AMD is absolutely capable of fielding world class ARM server and client CPUs if ARM takes off. INTC is always a threat on the client side but on the server side they have done enough to earn the /2" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1816658687697543186) 2024-07-26T02:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@mrjivraj @chriswmayer trust of the hyperscalers who are sophisticated enough that the brand/marketing/incentive power of INTC on the client side doesn't matter. TSMC could fall behind INTC but with the scale that TSMC gets now due to smartphones/AI it's very hard to see other than geopolitics /3" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1816659998535258587) 2024-07-26T02:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@mrjivraj @chriswmayer AMD is the only player that has world class design expertise in CPUs GPUs and FPGAs. INTC lacks somewhat in GPUs (so far) NVDA lacks somewhat in CPUs (so far) and FPGAs. As long as the cloud and the digital revolution is important AMD should do well. /4" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1816661784566325571) 2024-07-26T02:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@mrjivraj @chriswmayer Finally if AI is going to be even remotely as useful as some think then the world is going to need a hardware provider like AMD. Right now the risk to reward looks good to me and as long as the story checks out one should stay invested. /END" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1816663591044710452) 2024-07-26T02:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@4drant Well . One only needs to remind about $INTC in [----] and how invincible it seemed. Yet puny insignificant $AMD humbled them thoroughly after that. Not saying $NVDA is in that situation but the mighty can fall and underdogs persevere. Full Disclosure: I own all three of them" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1817283783789597007) 2024-07-27T19:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@MebFaber Not to mention $ASML and $TSM. Heck in the case of $TSM locals call it "Holy mountain that safeguards the country" and the world would be in a lot of hurt if something were to happen to it. Full Discolosure: I hold $TSM" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1819066957553193157) 2024-08-01T17:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "By now anyone who follows $INTC would have digested the latest earnings and knows the market reaction. You might know that I hold a (small) position in Intel so what are my thoughts /1" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820518416962510992) 2024-08-05T17:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Times are dark right now for Intel. As you can see Lynch would counsel for the actual good news to come before you buy but the best deals are when there's (your) blood in the streets. Is $INTC cheap right now Let's do some napkin math to see what terminal value might be. /2" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820519893810413880) 2024-08-05T17:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "What's the worst-case situation for Intel IMO that would be if it's unable to turn around it's fab either technology wise or able to get enough volumes to make it profitable. On top of that let's say it loses a lot of its current business. What might that look like /3" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820520746474680752) 2024-08-05T18:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Let's say $AMD and ARM architecture (both client and server) take away enough sales such that one third each and Intel is left with a third of its sales. Intel has a pretty sticky business with some x86 CPU sales so this would be very bad but let's be harsh on purpose. /4" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820522108314927480) 2024-08-05T18:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "I won't bore with the details but if you do the math on it you will get to around $15 to $20 as the terminal value. Interestingly enough the tangible book value and the lowest analyst price target is in the same ballpark. It looks generationally cheap. /8" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820525134182293719) 2024-08-05T18:19Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Okay but what are the possible upsides The products are actually getting better and closing the gap with AMD and ARM. The client-side Lunar Lake architecturally looks a shade better to me than AMD Zen5. The next server products catch up and the one after that might be better. /9" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820525852490440736) 2024-08-05T18:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "But what's being done to get there It takes a very long time to turn around a big semiconductor company. Pat Gelsinger certainly doesn't look at first glance to be succeeding but the amount of change he has brought about in almost arrogant Intel of the past is monumental. /11" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820527504639266858) 2024-08-05T18:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Porting to be able to fab flagship CPUs at TSMC (Lunar Lake) forcing products groups to adopt industry standard EDA methods is a bit like Microsoft adopting Linux in Azure and releasing Office for iOS/Android after Satya became $MSFT CEO. Unlike Intel those were already done /12" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820528608131301845) 2024-08-05T18:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Opening the Kimono to show the real fab financials were another gutsy move. Also note that this happened after hiring the only other CFO in the country who actually ran finance at another fab from $MU. And the memory fab business is an even more brutal. If Micron can do it /13" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820529718527209733) 2024-08-05T18:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "But the way I see it due to the terminal valuation the risk/reward to me looks good if we see the green shoots of a turnaround. If it turns around it's an easy 5-10 bagger. But don't get me wrong it could go lower temporarily in a panic and it's unlikely to be a [---] bagger /16" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820533449222205597) 2024-08-05T18:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Unless you commit to following the story carefully and keeping up you might want to take Lynch's advice and wait for more signs. But I already hold it bought more today and might more in the future. Remember none of this is investing advice so do your own due diligence. /END" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820534735590023505) 2024-08-05T18:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@mrjivraj Sorry somehow X didn't notify me about this post. It's all about engineering tradeoffs and choosing the right solution for the right point in time. AMD used chiplets more for the server market (also high-end desktop/workstations) than the client laptop market. /1" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820636824790004084) 2024-08-06T01:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@mrjivraj On the client side they also have monolithic APUs which include a GPU. On the server side having more throughput with parallel cores is important to many server/cloud scenarios. You need to bridge the chiplet IO overhead with a better architecture and higher perf IO /2" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820637342727880946) 2024-08-06T01:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@mrjivraj The irony is that Intel stumbled so badly that AMD didn't lose that much even on a single core/single thread basis compared to Intel in the first Zen generations. So there was a bit of luck on that aspect. But Moore's law is slowing so this 3D IC is the future for many things /5" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820639134857523305) 2024-08-06T01:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@mrjivraj Re $AMD vs $NVDA AI GPU perf AMD has a good chip hardware wise in many ways in the MI325 but nVidia is far ahead in the software stack network interconnect system level engineering and therefore the final realized performance in the datacenter. nVidia also had the benefit /6" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820666763807207545) 2024-08-06T03:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@mrjivraj on a [--] year product cycle. But nVidia has now moved to a yearly product cycle which would be hard to keep up with unless they stumble which they seemed to have a small bit with GB200 per recent news. But overall nVidia has formidable execution with Jensen at the top. /8" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820669719478759666) 2024-08-06T03:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@mrjivraj Blackwell is two monolithic chips interconnected by sophisticated 3D IC Cowos-L packaging tech. AMD's more chiplet hybrid bonding approach is more expensive. nVidia is going for a more manufacturable lower cost approach. It's hard to say when or if nVidia is going to move to /9" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1820692885953761752) 2024-08-06T05:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Dynamicbrands Better idea. If the cost cutting doesn't work do a deal with Buffett. Worked for the banks during the GFC and Buffett actually has an idea about this business having bought $TSM and then chickened out due to geopolitics - Full Disclosure: I own $INTC https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1593842568466341888 In [----] Grinnell College invested in a startup that later went public as $INTC. Among the board of trustees was one Warren Buffett. [--] years later he finally understands the magic of semiconductors and $BRK invests in $TSM. He's not buying American this time. Right choice" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1821309662727463263) 2024-08-07T22:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@Couch_Investor @Dynamicbrands Agreed. Pat is the right person and is trying a Satya like turnaround with a monumentally difficult situation. Problem is $INTC is far gone due to prev mgmt and it takes ages to turn around a semi ship. I fear [--] years may not be enough. Might need [--]. Will market/board be patient" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1821319981902258577) 2024-08-07T22:58Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Dynamicbrands @Couch_Investor But the market that matters more is the bond/credit market. If they decide its bad then game over hence my Buffet suggestion. The stock market can drag down the price all it wants. Unless theres an activist campaign it doesnt affect a whole lot" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1821431339540951073) 2024-08-08T06:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@JRogrow The other is Cerebras which is good but insanely expensive so its adoption is niche. Yes many will try and perhaps someone will come up with something but good luck competing with Jensen The VCs are going to burn a lot of money as playing in this field unlike software is not /5" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1821713376848048588) 2024-08-09T01:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@JRogrow cheap at all. If you are looking at an investing angle then why would you not invest in the fabs where all of this is going to be manufactured anyway There is ofc $TSM and if this crazy AI boom is going to last then the world will need the no [--] fab $INTC as well. This is a /6" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1821713883347943922) 2024-08-09T01:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@JRogrow bit like investing in $AMZN and $MSFT for their cloud services instead of some random SaaS or software company. Full Disclosure: I own $TSM and $INTC and none of this is investing advice. /END" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1821714232242753755) 2024-08-09T01:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@JRogrow OTOH network effects are more common in the tech business and if you can combine it with one/more of another moat like scale/cost/intangible assets etc. then you can build something quite durable. E.g. I doubt there is another manufacturing company with the dominance of $TSM" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1824573668120465777) 2024-08-16T22:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@JRogrow Even the 2nd largest troubled semi manufacturer $INTC only aspires to be the 2nd largest fab in the best-case scenario by [----]. $INTC has (had) scale but never had an external fab business and the network effects of all the fabless semi companies on $TSM and it's ecosystem" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1824574977980633289) 2024-08-16T22:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@JRogrow Full Disclosure: I own both $TSM and $INTC" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1824575222143652015) 2024-08-16T22:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@JRogrow Right. BTW re $ASML I think its a bit over hyped. Its a great company but people forget that both $INTC and $TSM invested in it to fund EUV development which took ages. Too high a customer concentration for my liking. Business wise $TSM is higher quality but for geopolitics" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1824840392875147655) 2024-08-17T16:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@JRogrow If you look at [--] Powers framework (by Hamilton Helmer) not just simplistic moats then $TSM is one of the few examples of "Process Power". However one should not underestimate the importance of the scale they got with the emergence of smartphones & then $AAPL collab" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1827053061346639896) 2024-08-23T18:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@JRogrow It's quite simple to just write off $INTC. Yes it's going to be an uphill climb but if you follow the history of semi fabrication then you will learn that most stumbles happen at inflection points. E.g. $TSM itself stumbled at FinFET. $INTC is betting on next inflection points" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1827053984382890225) 2024-08-23T18:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@JRogrow Full Disclosure: I hold $TSM and $INTC" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1827054228831138118) 2024-08-23T18:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@techfund1 Umm what's new here Intel has admitted that 18A is not going to be best for mobile. Revisions to 18A and the 14A process will be ones that target mobile. This is why QCOM it seems isn't excited abt 18A. Makes sense for them to target high perf. Full Disclosure: I hold $INTC" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1827409321736728604) 2024-08-24T18:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "🧵 Significant negative news in the potential turnaround of $INTC - Rather that rehash what's already in the article let me add some other details behind why the resignation of Lip-Bu Tan former CEO of $CDNS is worrisome. /1 https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-board-member-quit-after-differences-over-chipmakers-revival-plan-2024-08-27/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-board-member-quit-after-differences-over-chipmakers-revival-plan-2024-08-27/" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1828938071443943445) 2024-08-28T23:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Tan was the one board member with significant semiconductor industry experience. Two other board members have more of an academic semiconductors background and only one of them joined after the rot had set in. $CDNS is one of the big two EDA (semi design software) vendor. /2" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1828939384722522604) 2024-08-28T23:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Enabling industry standard design methods using widely used EDA software instead of the Intel custom design methods was monumental and key as an external foundry. It's a bit like Microsoft adopting Linux in their cloud efforts. I'm sure Tan was instrumental in this. /3" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1828942648343965870) 2024-08-28T23:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "What's less appreciated is how well connected in the semiconductor industry Tan was and had his own VC firm specializing in Semiconductors which is rare even though that was the genesis of VC firms way back when Silicon Valley was mostly about Silicon. /4" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1828943925425647666) 2024-08-28T23:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "The remaining board members just don't have the experience and background. Semiconductors are a very different ballgame from software even if there are similarities. Outsiders saw the Intel train wreck coming many many years ago. Surely the board could have seen it /6" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1828945740619755822) 2024-08-29T00:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "I used to be less negative than most about a potential $INTC turnaround but my views are now tempered. I will probably not sell my smallish position but the bar is now very high to buy in the future. Intel and Pat need to prove and show real progress on the fab front. /7" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1828946968183484555) 2024-08-29T00:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Pat Intel and the board needs to now needs to under promise and over deliver. There's been too much talk of what will happen in the future. Just start delivering and stop talk about what is coming. Full Disclosure: I hold $INTC and $CDNS. /END" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1828948265842405520) 2024-08-29T00:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@1p_semicon I don't see Monolithic Power Systems. Should there be a category for ASIC design services" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1829286157299163349) 2024-08-29T22:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@IanCutress You'd be surprised how many finance types have zero clue. I guess they've never even known anyone who plays video games. So much so that a recent Bloomberg video had to address it in the beginning - Oh my God No wonder Wall St missed $NVDA for so long https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-08-29/how-nvidia-changed-the-game-videosref=2CIeonw6 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-08-29/how-nvidia-changed-the-game-videosref=2CIeonw6" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1829372458635599902) 2024-08-30T04:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Things are looking really grim for $INTC Will it slump tomorrow or is all the slumping already done https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1828938071443943445 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-30/intel-is-said-to-explore-options-to-cope-with-historic-slump 🧵 Significant negative news in the potential turnaround of $INTC - https://t.co/bFTmGTfyNG Rather that rehash what's already in the article let me add some other details behind why the resignation of Lip-Bu Tan former CEO of $CDNS is worrisome. /1 https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1828938071443943445" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1829406116054544609) 2024-08-30T06:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@IanCutress You've hit the nail on the head. Unlike the $MSFT turnaround where they already had Office ported to iOS/Android Azure/.Net on Linux and Satya gave go the ahead to release them Intel was strategically bankrupt and never had any plan B. Only the paranoid survive" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1830015372084597199) 2024-08-31T22:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Those investors getting excited about a potential spin off of $INTC Foundry should understand the implications of Ian's tweet. There is nothing there to spin off other than a fire sale of equipment buildings and land. /1 https://x.com/IanCutress/status/1829691161210241524 People talking about IFS splitting out. It's highly unlikely right now: IFS is negative margin and the 14/10/7nm fabs can *only* make Intel products b/c of internal PDKs not using industry standard EDA. Hence UMC/Intel collab on new PDKs to use that equipment but that's in 2027" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1830017523003371623) 2024-08-31T22:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "It would be vastly better to burn money till the newer nodes ramp up and the older nodes support industry standard EDA tools. At that point why spinoff Intel might as well use it's own fab as its best customer. Can't spin off the products groups as well for licensing reasons /2" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1830018404549611771) 2024-08-31T23:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "You see Intel doesn't quite own the entirety of the x86 instruction set. The 64-bit extension was invented by $AMD as AMD64 when Intel was dicking around with Itanium & was made to eat humble pie and adopt it when $MSFT said it would not support two different 64-bit x86 ISA. /3" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1830019248519070131) 2024-08-31T23:06Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "The x86 license agreements between Intel and AMD I believe effectively doesn't allow anyone else to buy either of them without losing the license to the x86 ISA. What would the Intel products group be without that There's just chump change left. /4" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1830020097743995123) 2024-08-31T23:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "This is what Pat made the plan that he made. The only alternative to his plan is to sell the fab at fire sale liquidation prices and the products group moves to fab at $TSM. That would be colossal strategic loss of semiconductor manufacturing capability in the western world. /5" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1830020766261559343) 2024-08-31T23:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Speaking of strategy in comparison the turnaround of $MSFT by Satya was easier since they had internally ported Office to iOS/Android. The Windows division was delusional but Azure and .Net were quite far along in adopting Linux. Steve Baller wouldn't release much of these. /6" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1830021747737051524) 2024-08-31T23:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "But Satya came along pivoted and released them. In comparison $INTC was strategically bankrupt and never even considered scenarios in which they would have to become a serious third party fab and therefore the need to support industry standard EDA methods tools and processes /7" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1830022370750578783) 2024-08-31T23:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@_fabknowledge_ Yeah but crappy small value stocks sell for 1x P/S. For a product group that is genuinely among the top few in the world at what they do that is a crime" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1830643123753775216) 2024-09-02T16:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "$INTC cancels the 20A node - [--] nodes in [--] years was always BS meant for uninformed investors. It was always [--] nodes in [--] years as Intel 4/3 and 20A/18A are similar nodes. Intel [--] was just an enhanced Intel 10nm renamed. So it was always 18A or bust /1 https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/opinion/continued-momentum-intel-18a.html https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/opinion/continued-momentum-intel-18a.html" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1831510869681041775) 2024-09-05T01:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Intel 3/4 seems to be low volume node (so far) unless Xeon [--] volumes surprise. Probably best that 20A was canceled if it really speeds up 18A. $INTC will now live or die by whatever happens with 18A. Expect excruciating focus on how its doing" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1831512106937774087) 2024-09-05T01:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@joelteply Id like to believe but at this point it would be prudent not to take anything at face value and wait for independent confirmation. E.g. We dont know if they will have the money and secondarily the volume for a decent ramp of 18A. Their own graphs in the past show slow ramp" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1831533063370912026) 2024-09-05T03:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "So far the only semiconductor analyst with a viable strategy for how to potentially rescue $INTC is @jaygoldberg - I've mentioned this earlier in my posts but people forget that the dark days of $AMD had similarities. The industry just could not . /1 https://digitstodollars.com/2024/09/04/intel-reality/ https://digitstodollars.com/2024/09/04/intel-reality/" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1831832189329436938) 2024-09-05T23:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements ". afford to let $AMD die and some part in it's survival rested on getting revenue from semi-custom work done for others like $MSFT and $SONY for game consoles etc. Okay that was not quite a consortium but no reason why one would not work now if the alternative was for . /2" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1831833057663529012) 2024-09-05T23:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements ". Intel Foundry to die. The industry needs to grow up & realize who is going to fab all the chips in the future as digitization/cloud migration is only going to grow never mind the AI boom/bubble. My thread about the $AMD situation a while ago - /3 https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1761236259400478951 🧵Everyone knows about $NVDA but what were my thoughts when I invested in $AMD back then AMD is a classic example of what Peter Lynch calls a Turnaround like Chrysler with the minivan. AMD's minivan would be the Zen CPU architecture + chiplets + TSMC /1 https://t.co/xjBJb6iG6F" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1831834588504830012) 2024-09-05T23:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Full Disclosure: I own $INTC $AMD and $MSFT. /END" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1831834890444365969) 2024-09-05T23:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@jaygoldberg @chernandburn Yeah right. The guys who bailed on their server efforts to take on $INTC in the past at the first sign of trouble when $AVGO made a pass at them. In any case they wont get the x86 license so $AMD will laugh all the way to the bank. Only a brain damaged board would approve this" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1831928978745286762) 2024-09-06T05:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@_fabknowledge_ You can prove anything by cherry picking dates. Why specifically [--] years Why not [--] years (a bit after $INTC exited the DRAM business) You would still beat the S&P [---] -" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1832247434472517794) 2024-09-07T02:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@TheTranscript_ Umm . While Graviton [--] is quite good it simply does not outperform the best x86 processors from $AMD - Also the best $INTC Xeon [--] P core server CPUs (not the E core in that article) have yet to be benchmarked against. Not quite the slam dunk. https://www.phoronix.com/review/graviton4-96-core/5 https://www.phoronix.com/review/graviton4-96-core/5" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1833321711707816309) 2024-09-10T01:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@TheTranscript_ Full Disclosure: I hold $AMD and $INTC" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1833321815726559595) 2024-09-10T01:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@long_equity Super Micro I'm sorry but only a naive Semiconductor tourist would think that's in the list of quality Semiconductor companies" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1833637203790205007) 2024-09-10T22:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@DanGreenhaus I'm sorry can you elaborate on the $TT connection to AI I know they do commercial HVAC and chillers. I'm curious what kind of market share and exposure to the data center market they have Do they collaborate with some of the other better known DC liquid cooling names" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1833648499969429638) 2024-09-10T23:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@_fabknowledge_ This is a great book. I hope somebody does a modern version of this book about the Apple A/M series development. Or heck maybe the Zen series development when AMD was about to die. One can hope . The closest we came were the ones on the OG Xbox the NT OS and iPhone" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1833650872674562505) 2024-09-10T23:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@_fabknowledge_ Yeah sure. I've linked them below. They are the ones that I found most similar to "The Soul of a New Machine". I'm sure there are others that folks might want to point out. https://www.amazon.com/Opening-Xbox-Microsofts-Entertainment-Revolution/dp/0761537082 https://www.amazon.com/Show-Stopper-Breakneck-Generation-Microsoft/dp/0029356717 https://www.amazon.com/One-Device-Secret-History-iPhone/dp/031654616X https://www.amazon.com/Opening-Xbox-Microsofts-Entertainment-Revolution/dp/0761537082 https://www.amazon.com/Show-Stopper-Breakneck-Generation-Microsoft/dp/0029356717" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1833686265310683224) 2024-09-11T01:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@_fabknowledge_ BTW the Xbox was one of $NVDA's first forays into new markets. Based on the chipset for the Xbox they did the nForce chipsets for $AMD CPUs and then they later leveraged the media/audio knowledge into Tegra for the Zune HD (not the original Zune)" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1833689260882551097) 2024-09-11T02:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@_fabknowledge_ If you are going to spend that much one would think that a natural gas fuel cell based micro grid solution like Bloom Energy would make more sense. Faster to ramp construction. Gas is plenty cheap and available in a lot of the US. Full Disclosure: I hold $BE in a play account" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1834400736249348369) 2024-09-13T01:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Hmm . One has to but wonder if Lip Bu Tan leaving the $INTC board was to become an independent board member of the to be subsidiary fab. $INTC investors like me should wait with bated breath to see who the board members turn out to be. One can dream😛 https://x.com/realmemes6/status/1835779985459818966 Intel Foundry will become an independent subsidiary inside of Intel. CFO Dave Zinsner said in an interview a bit ago that IFS would continue to become more independent guess this is what it looks like. Also ready for a split or sale if they need to in the future https://t.co/zo4BLjyCKX" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1835845644332024172) 2024-09-17T00:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Thanks @jaygoldberg and @BenBajarin for explaining "Revlon Mode" Now some of the flurry of activity surrounding $INTC makes sense. It's interesting that the credit/debt side of capitalism is making more serious offers IMO. If that stops start worrying https://x.com/T_h_e_Circuit/status/1838321405198504130 Episode 84: Intel Inlection Point Analyzing the Intel Plan. In this episode @benbajarin @jaygoldberg discuss the Intel BOD plan activists and buyers foundry outlook and more scenarios. Apple Podcasts: https://t.co/LdoiJJ7MOw Spotify: https://t.co/IIqUBpCttY Overcast:" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1838404408176230530) 2024-09-24T02:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "In case you don't have time to listen - Full Disclosure: I hold $INTC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revlon_Inc._v._MacAndrews_%26_Forbes_Holdings_Inc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revlon_Inc._v._MacAndrews_%26_Forbes_Holdings_Inc" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1838404843549208932) 2024-09-24T02:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@Noonekn62072251 Talk is cheap. Easy to open a brokerage account and some will even pay you. Don't want money now to invest in your sure double There's more than one way to skin the cat. Put options are available in most IRAs" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1838457301176631721) 2024-09-24T05:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@EricBalchunas But aren't a lot of the active ones just taking over for the higher cost mutual funds or mutual fund share classes (if they exist) E.g. That's the case for me when I'm buying Capital Group ETFs. So in the in the end it seems to be all about costs again" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1838625787311985135) 2024-09-24T17:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Noonekn62072251 Excuses. There are long term [--] year puts which fit your timeline and they aren't more expensive than shorting. Navistar 🙄🤣 $INTC has been the leading semi fab for most of it's history except for the last [--] years and even then it's been no [--]. I'm going to ignore you from now" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1838736772341338374) 2024-09-25T00:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Forget about AI replacing programmers. Imagine AI making chip design much easier simpler faster and accessible. If that happens then there will be a tectonic shift and a lot of the value in the semiconductor industry could flow to the fabs and semi cap equipment makers" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1839833395561672962) 2024-09-28T01:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "If you think this is far-fetched see these videos from nVidia and Google - BTW those are from [----] before the GenAI and LLM explosion. This is a factor I believe in how $NVDA and $GOOGL are now doing yearly AI hardware releases. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=FraDFZ2t__A https://www.youtube.com/watchv=_PlcQUvNeCg https://www.youtube.com/watchv=FraDFZ2t__A https://www.youtube.com/watchv=_PlcQUvNeCg" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1840215941361312043) 2024-09-29T02:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@MebFaber Is there a minimum how much can be contributed Any restrictions on what kind of stocks Obviously US stocks only but anything else Any fees for the exchange other than the ETF expense ratio I hope brokerages aren't going to play games to try and make it harder" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1842073269148774858) 2024-10-04T05:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "This is truly a big deal for those who own significant employer stock or any individual stocks for that matter and want to diversify away. Now you can without the immediate tax hit. As Meb says its like [----] in real estate for stocks and you dont need to be rich. /1 If you truly understand the implications this will be a tectonic shift for the asset management industry. More importantly it will benefit all investors rather than only those accredited. Email info@cambriainvestments.com for more info. https://t.co/btMNJGguf5 If you truly understand the implications this will be a tectonic shift" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1842084592590979114) 2024-10-04T06:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Just how exactly does $NVDA keep the rapid pace of hardware releases (now yearly) Those of you who know Computer Architecture and EDA can find lots of clues in the linked video. I'll point out a few things here. First they use GPUs very well in EDA /1 https://www.youtube.com/watchv=_PlcQUvNeCg https://www.youtube.com/watchv=_PlcQUvNeCg" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1843808088236929473) 2024-10-09T00:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "A few examples are - Regression testing of gate level re-simulation is sped up 14000x by using GPUs This is just by being smart and using parallel computation abilities of the GPU. 2D PCB layout design speedup by 50x (in collab with $CDNS) to almost realtime. /2" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1843809855339131001) 2024-10-09T00:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "But wait there's more. They do their own standard cell libraries. I suppose they can afford to because they are not always the first on a new node and wait for it to mature for their huge dies. There is an extreme focus on simulation and getting the A stepping back working. /6" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1843816147294298283) 2024-10-09T00:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "In fact if you research the history of $NVDA and listen to Jensen on how they survived near bankruptcy early on with the RIVA1 [--] it was a bet the farm on simulation that allowed them to. They have never forgotten the lessons. /7" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1843819452737216829) 2024-10-09T01:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "I'm not hardware engineer (have enough of a background to understand) so maybe this is well known to the practitioners but it's still fascinating. I haven't even touched on the software and systems perspectives but this is getting too long anyway. /9" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1843821628708507961) 2024-10-09T01:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Full Disclosure: I own $NVDA and $CDNS. /END" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1843821773743378663) 2024-10-09T01:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@realmemes6 Well $AMD is down because its AI event today didn't impress so $NVDA is up. $INTC is down because Zen [--] Turin is better than Xeon P esp. in 2P. _()_/ I own all of them anyway 😛" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1844520266317341027) 2024-10-10T23:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@trengriffin @BenBajarin Sure I agree but would contend that the current impetus wouldnt have happened without those [--]. Why did it take till [----] for AlexNet to be GPU accelerated After all CUDA and GPU based acceleration existed in some form since [----] and less optimal solutions using Cg earlier" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1845258728704180289) 2024-10-13T00:22Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@af3 @patio11 I can tell you that loans to Physicians became much less friendly during the pandemic. The assumption that their income is rock solid stable ran into once in a hundred-year black swan. Of course it depends on the exact specialty but banks didn't care about the nuances" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1849889616801026272) 2024-10-25T19:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@patio11 @mewfree Not quite if you work in the bay area. During the GFC home prices in many areas dropped 40-50% and even large tech companies did their first broad based company wide layoffs. The local economy tax revenues and real estate are totally linked to how the tech industry does" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1849890508723847245) 2024-10-25T19:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@patio11 @mewfree Here's proof in case someone doesn't believe me - You can be financially sophisticated but even your psychologist cannot tell you your real tolerance to a big drawdown. Put at least 10% down to have some skin in the game if you want to go this route. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/09/look-back-in-2006-i-predicted-house.html https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/09/look-back-in-2006-i-predicted-house.html" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1849941571640373458) 2024-10-25T22:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@RajaXg GPUs may be the freight trains of computing being throughput monsters but they still need the CPU cars/trucks (of computing) to get the people/goods to the station to begin with and then get them out at the other end😝 That analogy is something $NVDA architects themselves use" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1849984309740130321) 2024-10-26T01:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The problem with index deletions is that by the time they get kicked out all the bad news is more than priced in and then they can outperform - Too bad nobody has looked at this in the context of Dow Jones deletions like $INTC https://www.researchaffiliates.com/content/dam/ra/publications/pdf/1043-nixed-the-upside-of-getting-dumped.pdf https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1857280634680680454 I'll post an update when the new ownership data is available but it's going be lonely out there with even pseudo indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average bailing. Is this going to be another case like" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1857605526366073255) 2024-11-16T02:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@syouth1 Isn't $SGOV (27B net assets 0.09% expense ratio) the right comparison instead of $BIL The latter dropped to 0.14% only after SGOV launched. But yeah it's nice that it's cheaper than their money market funds which SGOV had matched" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1860126340202267031) 2024-11-23T01:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@8020perspective @syouth1 Meh. Expense ratio isn't everything. How exactly has it managed to underperform both ICSH and SGOV -" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1860171223264821730) 2024-11-23T03:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Shocking news from Intel on Pat being forced out as CEO. Pretty bad for $INTC as I now think it might be gutted for its parts. Sure Pat made some mistakes but he should have been given more time at least a year or two more. I've sold half my position in $INTC today. /1" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1863675528500351354) 2024-12-02T20:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "I can't quite bring myself to sell everything as I still want to see what happens. Who knows maybe Lip Bu Tan comes back as CEO I mean one can dream But don't forget this is the same board that let things get this bad. I don't have much confidence in them at this point. /2" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1863676234972139745) 2024-12-02T20:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "It takes a really long time to turn a semiconductor ship around. Just look at $AMD and how long that took. It typically takes around [--] years for a CPU design. Many of the things coming out of $INTC today are due to decisions taken before Pat. /3" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1863676863157244239) 2024-12-02T20:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Here's my crazy outlandish idea - Pat gets together with a few folks like Lip Bu Tan Jim Keller etc. and convinces Warren Buffett to take $INTC private. Then fire existing board and do the right thing. God knows he has the money for it and had made a pass at $TSM before. /1" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1863749167929233555) 2024-12-03T00:56Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "Interesting new happenings in the tech soap opera that is the $INTC board. Appointing Steve Sanghi of Microchip and former ASML CEO Eric Meurice to the board - They are actually doing something sensible How does this happen after they push out Pat /1 https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1721/intel-appoints-semiconductor-leaders-eric-meurice-and-steve https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1721/intel-appoints-semiconductor-leaders-eric-meurice-and-steve" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1864696216308580495) 2024-12-05T15:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@BenBajarin @handleym99 In general the press is pretty clueless about highly technical things. While most financial analysts covering semiconductors are not so great either how are so many idiotic stories about Intel flying around Someone wants to buy them even cheaper" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1864740605647077694) 2024-12-05T18:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@BenBajarin @handleym99 I honestly hope you are right. There is some suspicious heavy selling of $INTC going on today. Either somebody knows something or this is clueless panic selling. But yeah any yield % can be true depending on the die size and Im not sure how much Korean press can be trusted" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1864750474735337796) 2024-12-05T19:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@BenBajarin @handleym99 But that was a few days ago. It seems the original source is NYT where an anonymous person is comparing $TSM N2 yields to $INTC 18A yields so not quite Apples to Oranges although 18A is more complicated due to GAA and BSPDN. No idea why folks are freaking today on Korean copy "The industry analyzed that the yield of the 18A process that Intel was planning to mass produce next year was less than 10%. As a result its customer Broadcom canceled its semiconductor orders for Intel." https://t.co/f95bGjXhsO "The industry analyzed that the yield of the 18A process that Intel" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1864755321610133946) 2024-12-05T19:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@lithos_graphein @jamesproud Any thoughts on 30% on $TSM N2 vs 10% on $INTC for what is obviously a large die On the one hand BSPDN is more complicated but thats still a significant difference considering both are supposed to be in HVM around the same time. Then again one cant expect Intel to match TSMC" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1864757532062867624) 2024-12-05T19:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@lithos_graphein @jamesproud Sure but doesnt it mean that TSMC is ahead of Intel at least in the trajectory of improving yields Ive seen D0 graphs of some new TSMC nodes starting out better than [---] that Intel shared. No idea how much to handicap for BSPDN" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1864759195469222388) 2024-12-05T19:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@DreadyBear @JamesDSneed @lithos_graphein But one has to at least consider the possibility that TSMC countered with its own D0 number for N2 that works out to 30% yield for the large switch dies that Broadcom has. 10% for Intel works out to be approximately right for such sizes given [---] D0. Just saying 🤷🏻♂" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1864766286636491236) 2024-12-05T20:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@DreadyBear @JamesDSneed @lithos_graphein Well the D0 for 18A has been publicly shared by Intel. It could still be true that TSMC D0 implies better yields than Intel. Broadcom didnt comment on how much better TSMC is and AFAIK what die size for the comment about Intel" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1864768778422108272) 2024-12-05T20:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@_fabknowledge_ @MowTrader So what are your thoughts about him being on the Intel board now" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1864784800860516821) 2024-12-05T21:31Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@_fabknowledge_ @MowTrader Just read. Agree with most of it but would be curious to know what the heck happened with Lip-Bu Tan. We can guess but still. Not sure if I agree that design will be the one left as public Intel due to CHIPs money restrictions. Maybe design is spun off with gutted fab left" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1864790373765202330) 2024-12-05T21:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@_fabknowledge_ I posted this in another reply as well but does anyone know what the heck happened with Lip-Bu Tan on the board We can guess but does anyone actually know He was the best qualified board member bar none so something must have been wrong for him to quit which gives me pause" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1864792018947285158) 2024-12-05T22:00Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "I've come to the realization that Lip-Bu Tan as Intel CEO is quite unlikely to happen. Those of us who have an investing interest in $INTC or just plain want Intel to succeed for the good of the industry/country might be wishing for it in vain - /1 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/business/economy/china-chips-house-select-committee.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/business/economy/china-chips-house-select-committee.html" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1865223919260545303) 2024-12-07T02:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Given the CHIPS act money Intel is getting the other DoD RAMP-C funding and the current climate it's unlikely that the government would be okay with it. Don't forget that as part of the CHIPS money there are clear restrictions on ownership stake percentage in Intel. /2" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1865225874930335823) 2024-12-07T02:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "This has a fair bit of implications and there are some fringe scenarios in which it could still happen. I'm going to make another detailed post of what I think of investing in $INTC going forward given all this. /END" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1865226668811378983) 2024-12-07T02:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@rationalyst @PGelsinger @MichaelDell $AMD tried that with Global Foundries and it was a disaster. What's worse there is nothing much to spin off right now - /1 https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1830017523003371623 Those investors getting excited about a potential spin off of $INTC Foundry should understand the implications of Ian's tweet. There is nothing there to spin off other than a fire sale of equipment buildings and land. /1 https://t.co/TPtoWtHGUa https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1830017523003371623 Those investors getting excited about a potential spin off of $INTC Foundry should" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1865641672345846011) 2024-12-08T06:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@EricBalchunas Not just Bogle. Here's some more data and perspective - Given that it's better IMO to use bonds and managed futures for diversification against US stocks. https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/08/23/how-useful-is-international-diversification/ https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/08/23/how-useful-is-international-diversification/" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1866749475907133477) 2024-12-11T07:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@mbnate @EricBalchunas @dabner Bid ask spreads since ETFs trades can execute at wider spreads from NAV. What time do you execute the order What if liquidity is low then Need some kind of automated solution for the easy rebalancing MFs enable in 401k. If allowed to buy at NAV end of day then few will trade" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1867465372154421413) 2024-12-13T07:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@AnetaSali168 But on the flip side APs make less money if trading activity is reduced. Only long-established ETFs could make it work. And even then it will likely increase bid ask spreads for regular trading" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1867785772281257996) 2024-12-14T04:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@BenBajarin LOL. Still keeps happening . My prediction: As that as long as such people exist nVidia will continue to be underrated and keep doing well. Full Disclosure: I hold $NVDA" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1876698888381604051) 2025-01-07T18:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@JRogrow I'm late to this but thanks. Has a better Sortino ratio and factor alpha than legendary Joel Tillinghast of $FLPSX from start to end [----] when Joel retired. Ofc by that time Joel was well known and must labored against huge bloat. Still shows what undiscovered managers can do" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1877154891363176653) 2025-01-09T00:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@InformedByIan 💯I bought a house & my auto insurer of 15+ years Farmers refused to offer fire insurance. Like a fool I complained to the CA insurance commission 🤣Got a letter that they cannot do anything🙄 Insult to injury they dropped my umbrella policy saying I don't have home ins. with em" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1877530422512595156) 2025-01-10T01:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "From the time Berkshire Hathaway's Class B shares were available in Jun [----] till end of [----] which of the following would have given you better returns S&P [---] (SPY ETF) Berkshire Hathaway Stock A boring defensive stock S&P [---] (SPY ETF) Berkshire Hathaway Stock A boring defensive stock" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1884799032880722047) 2025-01-30T03:01Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "The answer is - A boring defensive stock. Specifically the utility Southern Company $SO. It managed to slightly edge out Buffett in returns but also did better on a risk adjusted basis. Not just risk ratios for the period but also rolling returns. /1 https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1884799032880722047 From the time Berkshire Hathaway's Class B shares were available in Jun [----] till end of [----] which of the following would have given you better returns https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1884799032880722047 From the time Berkshire Hathaway's Class B shares were available in Jun [----] till end" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1886844311301702129) 2025-02-04T18:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Nicholas_Meyers @NomadicSamuel @EconomPic You might already know this but the $TCAF ETF which mimics $PRWCX philosophy is stock only. While possibly great thing I'm not 100% convinced it will do that well without all the tricks of mixing things that happen within PRWCX" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1886859019689857272) 2025-02-04T19:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@BenBajarin @LisaSu @T_h_e_Circuit Right. Something people forget or don't know is why did the architecture of GPUs win [--] years ago for graphics Graphics was the original parallel problem. If other approaches didn't win then why should they now other than in niche specific areas After all Cg begat CUDA" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1886921784106344750) 2025-02-04T23:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@harri37108 @BenBajarin @LisaSu @T_h_e_Circuit They do have some niche aspects of this like the nVdia NIM Metropolis Omniverse etc. but running a cloud service at scale is a lot of work and capex. So why do that unless they bring something unique. In the mean while they can make money in an easier way selling GPUs" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1886947970916213115) 2025-02-05T01:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@BenBajarin @T_h_e_Circuit Fun episode as usual. Just one question - Who exactly are these $INTC investors you refer to Just one active institution left holding a significant stake (Primecap). The rest are index/passive who don't care. As for the small ones do they matter and can they do anything" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1887336146411397158) 2025-02-06T03:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@EliorUzan92 @lithos_graphein @firstadopter Interesting. Thx. Regardless Im sure things $NVDA did (see the YouTube link in my post thread) are impactful. One has been adopted by $TSM via cuLitho. I think Bill Dally talked about it a bit in that video years before it got productised last year. https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/tsmc-culitho-computational-lithography/ https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/tsmc-culitho-computational-lithography/" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1887406536164598183) 2025-02-06T07:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@cis_female @_clarktang There are significant costs for masks and wafers these days at the leading edge. Even if you manage to make a semi decent chip you need to keep up on the treadmill of yearly updates. All the companies that tried to compete with $NVDA in the graphics found out it was every 6m /2" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1888277956986065356) 2025-02-08T17:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@JohnHuber72 The market kind of shares your concern. Hence the slowdown in the hyperscalers' price rise of late. Also why Semiconductor stocks have been rewarded in the past few years. They are the ones really making money in this boom. We are made to pay by things like MS Office price rise" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1888314403713695813) 2025-02-08T19:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Still listening to this excellent episode interviewing Morris Chang of $TSM and the stories from his latest memoir but two things struck me that I had to share. First TSMC's board has had 75% westerners for a long time. Sure enough still seems true. /1 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tsmc-founder-morris-chang/id1050462261i=1000685569822 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tsmc-founder-morris-chang/id1050462261i=1000685569822" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1888419597746901262) 2025-02-09T02:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "And many with Semi industry experience. Contrast that with the bumbling derelict board members that $INTC has had many without any relevant experience. Can there be a starker contrast Boards are not everything but they matter and can make a difference. /2" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1888420588110377124) 2025-02-09T02:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The second thing that struck me was his belief that you should not fire the bottom performers in a recession (or otherwise). Please go and listen to why he says that and what you should do instead. I totally agree Contrast that with the American and tech industry . /3" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1888421386219118870) 2025-02-09T02:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements ". practice in many firms of slavishly following the GE/Jack Welch-esq management practice of firing the bottom 10% or x% of performers. Morris Change you are a better man and manager than most I have seen Full Disclosure: I hold $TSM /END" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1888422588986380672) 2025-02-09T03:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@rationalyst True. Also of late the $AAPL and $TSM partnership. Apple is the pipe cleaner for new process node development. Without the learning scale via them for a new node it would have been harder for TSMC to exceed $INTC. $NVDA doesn't use new node at start due to being reticle limited" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1889014620612120858) 2025-02-10T18:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@EricBalchunas Let me contribute something obscure that few know about - $BE Bloom Energy. One of the most successful public tech/semiconductor investor happens to have the max possible ownership (for them) in it. Full Disclosure: I own a medium size position in $BE in a "fun" portfolio" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1893829842296078424) 2025-02-24T01:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@realmemes6 It's quite something when Craig Barrett himself is calling for the board to be fired But he's not blameless having presided over $INTC's close shave on 64-bit to $AMD and sale of the XScale ARM division to $MRVL - https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1866119483238076417 The best summary of the situation is by SemiAnalysis and I agree with a lot of it - https://t.co/RLspIJfwXD While Paul Otellini and Brian Krzanich deserve a lot of the scorn being heaped on why Intel is in the situation it is now I think Craig Barrett shares some blame. /2" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1896375152033870229) 2025-03-03T01:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MaxWinebach It's a bit ridiculous that you can 2x the perf of $INTC Meteor Lake CPUs (on battery) with these. My $2200+ Thinkpad X1 Carbon weeps looking at these $800 to $1100 options with Keyboard. Yes there is Lunar Lake but more expensive and rarer. x86 is so far behind" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1897003545960038778) 2025-03-04T19:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@theaustinlyons The graphics competitors in the late 90s certainly could not keep up $NVDA's blistering pace of new hardware. Every one of them except $AMD(ATI) gave up. Of course the hyperscalers have deeper pockets but my guess is only one more other than Google TPU among them will make it" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1897750981112479964) 2025-03-06T20:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@MaxWinebach @lover_sams1535 @iHateApplee Umm . I'm pretty sure one can configure x86 workstations with way more RAM and GPUs that actually work with CUDA. Here's just one example - https://www.dell.com/en-us/shop/cty/pdp/spd/precision-t7960-workstation#configurations_section https://www.dell.com/en-us/shop/cty/pdp/spd/precision-t7960-workstation#configurations_section" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1899534106532458838) 2025-03-11T18:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MaxWinebach @lover_sams1535 @iHateApplee Here's another if you want more cores and $AMD instead - I'm sure HP Lenovo et al have similar things https://www.dell.com/en-us/shop/cty/pdp/spd/precision-t7875-workstation https://www.dell.com/en-us/shop/cty/pdp/spd/precision-t7875-workstation" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1899534868750688539) 2025-03-11T18:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "While I might not agree 100% with everything he's a very insightful and astute observer for anyone who follows $INTC seriously and could have saved a lot of heartache for $INTC investors with all the shenanigans that happened. Highly recommended. /END" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1900621377549594679) 2025-03-14T18:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@walnutavevalue Yes. There are the rare boring neglected ones like $COCO. I managed to snag some cheap after the post IPO drop but even those who got an allocation made money. I hold it in a "fun portfolio" which is just a medium for me to learn about investing in non-Semiconductor stocks" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1900644754297418205) 2025-03-14T20:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@walnutavevalue @Larryjamieson_ Absolutely. He had his faults for sure but few realize that without his focus on enterprise software MS wouldn't even get to Azure. He also gave things a lot of time to work out. His mistake was he should have had a good technical sidekick to replace Bill Gates" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1900651206516867553) 2025-03-14T20:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@walnutavevalue @Larryjamieson_ Funny thing is that compressing multiples only matter when buying at the wrong time or high enough valuations. E.g. If you bought Microsoft early enough like around IPO Apple never ever catches up. The Buffett [--] slot punch card thing really works for quality names held forever" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1900687608814203289) 2025-03-14T23:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@realmemes6 @lithos_graphein Even better use TypeScript or some other more modern language that transpiles to JavaScript like it" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1901136378421018832) 2025-03-16T05:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements ""Once instruction overhead is amortized by large ML oriented instructions our completely programmable GPU is as efficient at Deep Learning as a hard-wired accelerator like a TPU or one of the other special purpose chips" Bill Dally https://www.youtube.com/watchv=kLiwvnr4L80&t=870s&ab_channel=PaulG.AllenSchool That's not all. They actually design and produce specialized accelerators to prototype features for GPUs What doesn't work gets discarded and what works goes into the next GPU. How do you like your chances now random AI hardware startup /4" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1901853844591849951) 2025-03-18T04:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Once again how do you like your chances now random AI hardware startup Even hyperscalers you had better be very sure about getting a return on all that NRE unless you have significant internal AI workloads like Google (and maybe Meta). Some of the rest will likely fail" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1901855488876371994) 2025-03-18T04:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements ""Of the 1000x perf improvement in ML ops in the past [--] years only about 2.5x came from process technology Moore's Law" (Paraphrasing) Bill Dally Let's see the $NVDA stock has only gone up a few hundred times in the past [--] years. Seems fair https://www.youtube.com/watchv=kLiwvnr4L80&t=782s&ab_channel=PaulG.AllenSchool https://www.youtube.com/watchv=kLiwvnr4L80&t=782s&ab_channel=PaulG.AllenSchool" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1901861103124242736) 2025-03-18T04:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Also explains why $TSM didn't go up as much. Again seems fair Although in the future with the horde of AI/ML startups trying guess who benefits a bit more" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1901862068216590657) 2025-03-18T05:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Now don't forget the human brain does this in about 20W vs likely hundreds of watts for the GPU. But it will be fascinating to see what this unleashes and if Ray will win. FWIW I think the human brain capability is more than that simplistic metric. /3" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1902082566427156571) 2025-03-18T19:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Dog_wiff_hat 🤣Well we definitely have that reached that level of "brain" capability at low power I suppose. That robot on stage looked about as smart and capable as my dog or maybe a young toddler" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1902106855276781990) 2025-03-18T21:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@BenBajarin @Arm Another one bites the dust 🎵🎵🎶 SoftBank the savior of failed AI hardware and now CPU hardware startups. I guess they can all now go work on OpenAI's hardware efforts" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1902539497633706448) 2025-03-20T01:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@insane_analyst WTF is that Cookie Cake $NVDA wouldnt quite be where it is today without Microsoft in a way if you know the history. Still important today. GPU AI and lets hope a good CPU as well soon" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1902589829810163903) 2025-03-20T05:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@_fabknowledge_ Yeah but $NKE is also in a bit of an $INTC like situation due to a major self-inflicted injury. They might take a year or two to turn around but *if* and when they do I don't think there is a brand of its caliber you could buy cheaper. Not advice. Do your own DD" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1903133996621631710) 2025-03-21T17:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PatrickMoorhead Theres got to be some connection with the licensing with MediaTek. Is $NVDA getting some client side IP for low power Mediatek announces it will have access to NV IP for its custom ASIC business. https://t.co/dNNlDqInaK Mediatek announces it will have access to NV IP for its custom ASIC business. https://t.co/dNNlDqInaK" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1903334922137505846) 2025-03-22T06:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@firstadopter You are right about the R300. But its also true that the dot com bust bottomed in end [----] (Oct to be precise) with an 80+% drop in tech stocks over the previous [--] years. Its hard to parse out how much of the 80+% drop for $NVDA was R300 and how much the last throes of dot com" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1904407720356466870) 2025-03-25T05:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@psarofagis $AAPL. Left for dead by everyone in the 90s due to the Wintel onslaught till Jobs came back convinces $MSFT to invest $150m Jobs' NeXT becomes MacOS develops iPod iPhone iPad and becomes the largest stock. Is there a bigger turnaround in terms of magnitude" [X Link](https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1904590649724379140) 2025-03-25T17:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@OutspokenGeek OutspokenGeek
OutspokenGeek posts on X about $intc, $nvda, $tsm, $be the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-------] #
- [--] Week [----------] +1,130%
- [--] Month [----------] +3,507,215%
- [--] Months [----------] +962,699%
- [--] Year [----------] +250,409%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +89%
- [--] Month [--] +300%
- [--] Months [--] +60%
- [--] Year [---] -7.20%
Followers: [---] #
- [--] Week [---] +17%
- [--] Month [---] +42%
- [--] Months [---] +254%
- [--] Year [---] +366%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks technology brands finance countries cryptocurrencies currencies automotive brands gaming celebrities social networks
Social topic influence $intc, $nvda, $tsm, $be #22, money, nvda, stocks, if you, gpu, microsoft
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @fabknowledge @insaneanalyst @jrogrow @ericbalchunas @benbajarin @mrjivraj @mebfaber @lithosgraphein @chriswmayer @syouth1 @walnutavevalue @iancutress @realmemes6 @firstadopter @timmerfidelity @jaygoldberg @itstarh @riceandstirfry @andrewdbeer1 @intel
Top assets mentioned Intel Corporation (INTC) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) Spacemesh (SMH) intel (INTEL) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) General Electric Company (GE) COCOCOIN (COCO) QUALCOMM, Inc. (QCOM) Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) RAMP (RAMP) Nike Inc (NKE) Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Bank of America (BAC) United Microelectronic Corp. (UMC)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@MebFaber You are absolutely right. $DBMF is crushing it as a low-cost broad multi-asset trend following ETF. For a 0.95% expense its raking in assets compared to expensive incumbents like ABYAX and ASFYX with a better Sortino ratio Can you pretty please have them on your podcast"
X Link 2022-10-11T23:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"What terrible advice @MorningstarInc is peddling these days - PRTNX really There are much cheaper index TIPS ETFs or Mutual Funds - It has better returns drawdowns and sortino ratio. Enough said What happened to Morningstar https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performances=y&symbol=PRTNX&benchmark=VIPSX https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1118049/6-bond-funds-for-navigating-inflation https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performances=y&symbol=PRTNX&benchmark=VIPSX https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1118049/6-bond-funds-for-navigating-inflation"
X Link 2022-10-20T00:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"What's more PRTNX is a load fund just because @PIMCO thinks retail investors are stupid enough to buy that in comparison to PRRIX let alone other index options. In what world does @MorningstarInc now recommend load mutual funds Does anyone at MorningStar review these articles"
X Link 2022-10-20T00:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@MikeWShell @andrewdbeer1 @TomBrady Cherry picking a specific start date can show whatever you want. From [----] which is the longest available on portfoliovisualizer shows that it has better risk adjusted returns and a better sortino ratio - https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performances=y&symbol=LEXCX&benchmark=VFINX https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performances=y&symbol=LEXCX&benchmark=VFINX"
X Link 2022-11-18T17:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The most underrated book in finance - Ch [--] (last section) and the graph below is all you need to understand how modern markets and finance ticks - https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691191362/adaptive-markets https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691191362/adaptive-markets"
X Link 2022-12-23T19:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@EricBalchunas Fair enough. But since we were discussing $FCNTX I will bet anything that it's bigger than $AGTHX when you include CITs. Incidentally Will Danoff worked for Lynch so him doing decent for so long can't be a coincidence even if he's no Lynch"
X Link 2023-01-20T03:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@RyanPKirlin Meh As an individual investor you want to own I-Bonds. Unlike TIPS they deliver without deflation or market driven low rates. Plus at 15K per person per year families with kids could sock away more than they allow in most 401ks (Unless u have aftertax roth in-plan conversion)"
X Link 2023-09-22T03:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@IanCutress @intel Could you elaborate So it may not be ready for actual products"
X Link 2023-09-22T15:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@IanCutress @intel I went back and checked wasn't it supposed to be 'Manufacturing Ready' by end Q2 [----] as per this - It's strange that most aren't talking about this. First they cancelled desktop MTL. Now laptop MTL is late completely missing the holiday sales season"
X Link 2023-09-24T00:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@MebFaber Nothing special if you chart real returns instead. That's the biggest problem with (nominal treasury) bonds. Always has been always will be"
X Link 2023-09-26T19:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@corry_wang @fabknowledge Microsoft Research in Beijing was one of the first locations outside the US (after Cambridge) and they have been long involved in AI research. E.g. Speech related work has been going in MS since early 90s with the first products since [----] in Windows [--] and NT 3.51"
X Link 2023-09-27T16:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@lithos_graphein Another little-known fact about them is that in the early 80s they were about to be killed by the Japanese DRAM cartel and @Fidelity was involved in bailing them out. The US govt should forever be thankful. Full Disclosure: I hold $MU From "One Up On Wall Street" -"
X Link 2023-10-28T03:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@SubprimeShaman @EricBalchunas @JeffWeniger Right Here's the funny thing. You can open a Bank of America Merril Edge (zero commission brokerage) account and buy those $1mil fidelity funds with just $1K I suppose it's payback for brokerages making it easy to have a MMF backed checking account"
X Link 2023-11-07T20:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@fabknowledge $SOXX Meh . US only. Try $SMH instead. Any semiconductors ETF that doesn't include $TSM is a bit myopic and less diversified way to invest in the field IMO. BTW $SMH includes only US listed foreign stocks so best of both worlds"
X Link 2023-12-15T08:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@fabknowledge Okay looks like I was wrong $SOXX does have $TSM but it sure has a super weird weighting mechanism where both $TSM and $NVDA are pushed way down which is why I didn't see it. $SMH has a more sensible methodology where the relative rankings of the top stocks are maintained"
X Link 2023-12-15T09:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@TimmerFidelity @newbietradereth Legend seems to be missing M/N. Market neutral But then perhaps L/S could cover that "
X Link 2024-01-09T18:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@MebFaber I'll bite since I invest in semis. Define "past few years". I'll bet that you are cherry picking. The only emerging markets that have semi stocks of note are Taiwan and Korea (some don't it consider emerging). Both $TSM and $UMC would have beat $NVDA in very narrow time periods"
X Link 2024-02-21T00:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"🧵Everyone knows about $NVDA but what were my thoughts when I invested in $AMD back then AMD is a classic example of what Peter Lynch calls a Turnaround like Chrysler with the minivan. AMD's minivan would be the Zen CPU architecture + chiplets + TSMC /1 https://twitter.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1760813753732378731 My 2nd [---] bagger Sometimes lighting does strike twice in the same place. (TBH it's in the same high lightning area but still. Thanks to @chriswmayer doing much better at holding onto this one. Oh to be lucky enough to get a 3rd one in a lifetime🙂 https://t.co/1yWMKeDVCz"
X Link 2024-02-24T03:47Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"In the meanwhile AMD was trying to survive with custom engineering work for various other large tech companies that would hate to see it go away. A completely new x86 CPU architecture like Zen takes about [--] years to fruition but you can see preliminary results in year [--]. /9"
X Link 2024-02-24T03:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"By [----] the stars were aligning and anybody who knows the history and follows the industry could have seen that the risk reward was excellent for a bet on an AMD turnaround. AMD had shrunk to a tiny market cap of around [--] billion. But the upside could be quite significant. /10"
X Link 2024-02-24T03:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Intel itself fumbled so badly that for the first time they were behind TSMC in process tech. This allowed AMD to have more efficient and lower power multicore processors in the key cloud data center market. AMD mgmt used the fortune to make good capital allocation decisions. /12"
X Link 2024-02-24T03:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"They acquired Xlinix the leading FPGA company and were always no [--] in GPUs. Now they had all [--] digital compute technologies. The crypto boom certainly helped their GPU sales so by the time the AI boom came AMD would be sitting pretty as a real alternative to NVDA. /13"
X Link 2024-02-24T03:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Mojo_flyin @IanCutress Yes but that volume seems low even for DC to me. Looks to me like they are going to ship MTL like niche products for DC as well. Either that or they have to be on 18A to beat AMD with server products and dont expect much uptake"
X Link 2024-02-29T04:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@TimmerFidelity Banks are saying - "Ha we don't believe you Fed Next crisis you will freak out and drop rates all the way close to [--] anyway so why should we not rake it in like banksters" Who blinks first Irony is Fidelity is one of the few places with a bank like product that pays more"
X Link 2024-05-10T01:19Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@MebFaber Too bad you didnt bother to research that the original quote is from Peter Lynch. Warren Buffett himself called Lynch for permission to quote that line in his shareholder letter"
X Link 2024-05-14T15:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@fabknowledge Visa $V has similar margins. Visa has pretty wide global scale but of course the amount of data they deal in is very miniscule in comparison. Unlikely to grow at the rate that nVidia is doing now. Full Disclosure: I hold nVidia"
X Link 2024-05-22T21:40Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@EricBalchunas The reason is quite simply that fabless semi firms are asset light almost software like plays and don't have to invest the insane capex required to run a leading semi fab. But real R&D not just sales and marketing. VanEck should know having run the very successful $SMH semi ETF"
X Link 2024-06-01T00:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@EricBalchunas $NVDA is a leading example. BTW Eric it's "en-vidia" not "na-vidia" 😜"
X Link 2024-06-01T00:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@dylan522p @fabknowledge Not sure I get the full context but Japanese small caps haven't decimated capital like the large caps did in the wake of the insane Japanese bubble. They have been the place to be even if you took an index approach (unlike Fidelity's long presence and excellent active one) -"
X Link 2024-06-03T20:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@fabknowledge Umm only the largest by market cap. Now if you had said most valuable . So many ways to define largest. Fortune uses revenue. Forbes uses what seems a more sensible at first glance blended metric but including assets boosts up all the beaten down banks"
X Link 2024-06-18T23:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Why do totally uninformed (about the tech) commentators like @nirkaissar insist on comparing $NVDA to Cisco in [----] - An internet packet did not and does not care which router it went through so there wasn't much of a moat. nVidia has multiple moats /1 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-24/nvidia-s-murky-ai-future-isn-t-in-the-price-after-4-000-surge https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-24/nvidia-s-murky-ai-future-isn-t-in-the-price-after-4-000-surge"
X Link 2024-06-26T18:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Cisco had just one core product area at the time. nVidia has re-invented itself multiple times and has a mature graphics and parallel throughput computation business without any of the AI stuff. It's software CUDA moat is extensive. You can run it on almost any nVidia GPU /2"
X Link 2024-06-26T19:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Which means that most AI software folks find it super easy to experiment and run things from a small scale laptop GPU to massive datacenter level AI GPU farms. Network effects here. An internet packet by definition can route through any router or hardware with a TCP/IP stack /3"
X Link 2024-06-26T19:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"nVidia has shown a remarkable ability and agility to enter new businesses starting with the console graphics Xbox in [----] nForce computer chipsets parallel computing media/mobile Tegra chips automotive chips Arm PC chips general purpose compute CPUs and finally AI. /4"
X Link 2024-06-26T19:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@SzabolcsMihaly @TimmerFidelity I think RCA is a more apt comparison to a possibly world changing technology. (We shall see if AI is that) I could be biased but I don't think the $CSCO comparison quite applies to $NVDA as they weren't that unavoidable in the internet revolution - https://twitter.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1806039078615576968 Why do totally uninformed (about the tech) commentators like @nirkaissar insist on comparing $NVDA to Cisco in [----] - https://t.co/NLcm3IM2Pz An internet packet did not and does not care which router it went through so there wasn't much of a moat. nVidia"
X Link 2024-07-11T01:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@psarofagis LOL. Happens whenever there's good news for rate cuts (like yesterday) anything and everything that is not large/mega growth shoots up. When the fed finally cuts -"
X Link 2024-07-12T20:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@TimmerFidelity The graphs in the linkedin article are not clickable to zoom in unlike twitter so the experience is quite subpar Especially as your graphs have a ton of details. Any chance you could fix this"
X Link 2024-07-23T01:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@witeken Something being missed is that the graph is wafer capacity not produced dies. Presumably the EUV nodes will be used more efficiently with a chiplet/tile approach and IO heavy parts use other nodes. Intel would also produce mostly CPU tiles with GPUs at TSMC. Intel might make do"
X Link 2024-07-25T16:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@chriswmayer @mrjivraj Absolutely true on what others aren't willing/able to do. When I bought $AMD most of my friends thought I was crazy with it being a bankruptcy risk. Very few public managers can beat the conviction of an informed individual investor who doesn't care about benchmarks"
X Link 2024-07-26T01:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@mrjivraj @chriswmayer I will be honest and say that no one really knows for sure. And that's just based on what I thought would happen to AMD in the last [--] years (see my thread on it). But here's my "informed speculation" - As long as x86 is relevant GPUs r used for graphics/parallel compute/AI /1"
X Link 2024-07-26T02:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@mrjivraj @chriswmayer then AMD will continue to be important. ARM is a threat on the server side but AMD is absolutely capable of fielding world class ARM server and client CPUs if ARM takes off. INTC is always a threat on the client side but on the server side they have done enough to earn the /2"
X Link 2024-07-26T02:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@mrjivraj @chriswmayer trust of the hyperscalers who are sophisticated enough that the brand/marketing/incentive power of INTC on the client side doesn't matter. TSMC could fall behind INTC but with the scale that TSMC gets now due to smartphones/AI it's very hard to see other than geopolitics /3"
X Link 2024-07-26T02:21Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@mrjivraj @chriswmayer AMD is the only player that has world class design expertise in CPUs GPUs and FPGAs. INTC lacks somewhat in GPUs (so far) NVDA lacks somewhat in CPUs (so far) and FPGAs. As long as the cloud and the digital revolution is important AMD should do well. /4"
X Link 2024-07-26T02:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@mrjivraj @chriswmayer Finally if AI is going to be even remotely as useful as some think then the world is going to need a hardware provider like AMD. Right now the risk to reward looks good to me and as long as the story checks out one should stay invested. /END"
X Link 2024-07-26T02:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@4drant Well . One only needs to remind about $INTC in [----] and how invincible it seemed. Yet puny insignificant $AMD humbled them thoroughly after that. Not saying $NVDA is in that situation but the mighty can fall and underdogs persevere. Full Disclosure: I own all three of them"
X Link 2024-07-27T19:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@MebFaber Not to mention $ASML and $TSM. Heck in the case of $TSM locals call it "Holy mountain that safeguards the country" and the world would be in a lot of hurt if something were to happen to it. Full Discolosure: I hold $TSM"
X Link 2024-08-01T17:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"By now anyone who follows $INTC would have digested the latest earnings and knows the market reaction. You might know that I hold a (small) position in Intel so what are my thoughts /1"
X Link 2024-08-05T17:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Times are dark right now for Intel. As you can see Lynch would counsel for the actual good news to come before you buy but the best deals are when there's (your) blood in the streets. Is $INTC cheap right now Let's do some napkin math to see what terminal value might be. /2"
X Link 2024-08-05T17:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"What's the worst-case situation for Intel IMO that would be if it's unable to turn around it's fab either technology wise or able to get enough volumes to make it profitable. On top of that let's say it loses a lot of its current business. What might that look like /3"
X Link 2024-08-05T18:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Let's say $AMD and ARM architecture (both client and server) take away enough sales such that one third each and Intel is left with a third of its sales. Intel has a pretty sticky business with some x86 CPU sales so this would be very bad but let's be harsh on purpose. /4"
X Link 2024-08-05T18:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I won't bore with the details but if you do the math on it you will get to around $15 to $20 as the terminal value. Interestingly enough the tangible book value and the lowest analyst price target is in the same ballpark. It looks generationally cheap. /8"
X Link 2024-08-05T18:19Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Okay but what are the possible upsides The products are actually getting better and closing the gap with AMD and ARM. The client-side Lunar Lake architecturally looks a shade better to me than AMD Zen5. The next server products catch up and the one after that might be better. /9"
X Link 2024-08-05T18:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"But what's being done to get there It takes a very long time to turn around a big semiconductor company. Pat Gelsinger certainly doesn't look at first glance to be succeeding but the amount of change he has brought about in almost arrogant Intel of the past is monumental. /11"
X Link 2024-08-05T18:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Porting to be able to fab flagship CPUs at TSMC (Lunar Lake) forcing products groups to adopt industry standard EDA methods is a bit like Microsoft adopting Linux in Azure and releasing Office for iOS/Android after Satya became $MSFT CEO. Unlike Intel those were already done /12"
X Link 2024-08-05T18:33Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Opening the Kimono to show the real fab financials were another gutsy move. Also note that this happened after hiring the only other CFO in the country who actually ran finance at another fab from $MU. And the memory fab business is an even more brutal. If Micron can do it /13"
X Link 2024-08-05T18:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"But the way I see it due to the terminal valuation the risk/reward to me looks good if we see the green shoots of a turnaround. If it turns around it's an easy 5-10 bagger. But don't get me wrong it could go lower temporarily in a panic and it's unlikely to be a [---] bagger /16"
X Link 2024-08-05T18:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Unless you commit to following the story carefully and keeping up you might want to take Lynch's advice and wait for more signs. But I already hold it bought more today and might more in the future. Remember none of this is investing advice so do your own due diligence. /END"
X Link 2024-08-05T18:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@mrjivraj Sorry somehow X didn't notify me about this post. It's all about engineering tradeoffs and choosing the right solution for the right point in time. AMD used chiplets more for the server market (also high-end desktop/workstations) than the client laptop market. /1"
X Link 2024-08-06T01:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@mrjivraj On the client side they also have monolithic APUs which include a GPU. On the server side having more throughput with parallel cores is important to many server/cloud scenarios. You need to bridge the chiplet IO overhead with a better architecture and higher perf IO /2"
X Link 2024-08-06T01:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@mrjivraj The irony is that Intel stumbled so badly that AMD didn't lose that much even on a single core/single thread basis compared to Intel in the first Zen generations. So there was a bit of luck on that aspect. But Moore's law is slowing so this 3D IC is the future for many things /5"
X Link 2024-08-06T01:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@mrjivraj Re $AMD vs $NVDA AI GPU perf AMD has a good chip hardware wise in many ways in the MI325 but nVidia is far ahead in the software stack network interconnect system level engineering and therefore the final realized performance in the datacenter. nVidia also had the benefit /6"
X Link 2024-08-06T03:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@mrjivraj on a [--] year product cycle. But nVidia has now moved to a yearly product cycle which would be hard to keep up with unless they stumble which they seemed to have a small bit with GB200 per recent news. But overall nVidia has formidable execution with Jensen at the top. /8"
X Link 2024-08-06T03:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@mrjivraj Blackwell is two monolithic chips interconnected by sophisticated 3D IC Cowos-L packaging tech. AMD's more chiplet hybrid bonding approach is more expensive. nVidia is going for a more manufacturable lower cost approach. It's hard to say when or if nVidia is going to move to /9"
X Link 2024-08-06T05:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Dynamicbrands Better idea. If the cost cutting doesn't work do a deal with Buffett. Worked for the banks during the GFC and Buffett actually has an idea about this business having bought $TSM and then chickened out due to geopolitics - Full Disclosure: I own $INTC https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1593842568466341888 In [----] Grinnell College invested in a startup that later went public as $INTC. Among the board of trustees was one Warren Buffett. [--] years later he finally understands the magic of semiconductors and $BRK invests in $TSM. He's not buying American this time. Right choice"
X Link 2024-08-07T22:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Couch_Investor @Dynamicbrands Agreed. Pat is the right person and is trying a Satya like turnaround with a monumentally difficult situation. Problem is $INTC is far gone due to prev mgmt and it takes ages to turn around a semi ship. I fear [--] years may not be enough. Might need [--]. Will market/board be patient"
X Link 2024-08-07T22:58Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Dynamicbrands @Couch_Investor But the market that matters more is the bond/credit market. If they decide its bad then game over hence my Buffet suggestion. The stock market can drag down the price all it wants. Unless theres an activist campaign it doesnt affect a whole lot"
X Link 2024-08-08T06:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@JRogrow The other is Cerebras which is good but insanely expensive so its adoption is niche. Yes many will try and perhaps someone will come up with something but good luck competing with Jensen The VCs are going to burn a lot of money as playing in this field unlike software is not /5"
X Link 2024-08-09T01:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@JRogrow cheap at all. If you are looking at an investing angle then why would you not invest in the fabs where all of this is going to be manufactured anyway There is ofc $TSM and if this crazy AI boom is going to last then the world will need the no [--] fab $INTC as well. This is a /6"
X Link 2024-08-09T01:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@JRogrow bit like investing in $AMZN and $MSFT for their cloud services instead of some random SaaS or software company. Full Disclosure: I own $TSM and $INTC and none of this is investing advice. /END"
X Link 2024-08-09T01:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@JRogrow OTOH network effects are more common in the tech business and if you can combine it with one/more of another moat like scale/cost/intangible assets etc. then you can build something quite durable. E.g. I doubt there is another manufacturing company with the dominance of $TSM"
X Link 2024-08-16T22:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@JRogrow Even the 2nd largest troubled semi manufacturer $INTC only aspires to be the 2nd largest fab in the best-case scenario by [----]. $INTC has (had) scale but never had an external fab business and the network effects of all the fabless semi companies on $TSM and it's ecosystem"
X Link 2024-08-16T22:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@JRogrow Full Disclosure: I own both $TSM and $INTC"
X Link 2024-08-16T22:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@JRogrow Right. BTW re $ASML I think its a bit over hyped. Its a great company but people forget that both $INTC and $TSM invested in it to fund EUV development which took ages. Too high a customer concentration for my liking. Business wise $TSM is higher quality but for geopolitics"
X Link 2024-08-17T16:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@JRogrow If you look at [--] Powers framework (by Hamilton Helmer) not just simplistic moats then $TSM is one of the few examples of "Process Power". However one should not underestimate the importance of the scale they got with the emergence of smartphones & then $AAPL collab"
X Link 2024-08-23T18:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@JRogrow It's quite simple to just write off $INTC. Yes it's going to be an uphill climb but if you follow the history of semi fabrication then you will learn that most stumbles happen at inflection points. E.g. $TSM itself stumbled at FinFET. $INTC is betting on next inflection points"
X Link 2024-08-23T18:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@JRogrow Full Disclosure: I hold $TSM and $INTC"
X Link 2024-08-23T18:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@techfund1 Umm what's new here Intel has admitted that 18A is not going to be best for mobile. Revisions to 18A and the 14A process will be ones that target mobile. This is why QCOM it seems isn't excited abt 18A. Makes sense for them to target high perf. Full Disclosure: I hold $INTC"
X Link 2024-08-24T18:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"🧵 Significant negative news in the potential turnaround of $INTC - Rather that rehash what's already in the article let me add some other details behind why the resignation of Lip-Bu Tan former CEO of $CDNS is worrisome. /1 https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-board-member-quit-after-differences-over-chipmakers-revival-plan-2024-08-27/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-board-member-quit-after-differences-over-chipmakers-revival-plan-2024-08-27/"
X Link 2024-08-28T23:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Tan was the one board member with significant semiconductor industry experience. Two other board members have more of an academic semiconductors background and only one of them joined after the rot had set in. $CDNS is one of the big two EDA (semi design software) vendor. /2"
X Link 2024-08-28T23:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Enabling industry standard design methods using widely used EDA software instead of the Intel custom design methods was monumental and key as an external foundry. It's a bit like Microsoft adopting Linux in their cloud efforts. I'm sure Tan was instrumental in this. /3"
X Link 2024-08-28T23:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"What's less appreciated is how well connected in the semiconductor industry Tan was and had his own VC firm specializing in Semiconductors which is rare even though that was the genesis of VC firms way back when Silicon Valley was mostly about Silicon. /4"
X Link 2024-08-28T23:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"The remaining board members just don't have the experience and background. Semiconductors are a very different ballgame from software even if there are similarities. Outsiders saw the Intel train wreck coming many many years ago. Surely the board could have seen it /6"
X Link 2024-08-29T00:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I used to be less negative than most about a potential $INTC turnaround but my views are now tempered. I will probably not sell my smallish position but the bar is now very high to buy in the future. Intel and Pat need to prove and show real progress on the fab front. /7"
X Link 2024-08-29T00:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Pat Intel and the board needs to now needs to under promise and over deliver. There's been too much talk of what will happen in the future. Just start delivering and stop talk about what is coming. Full Disclosure: I hold $INTC and $CDNS. /END"
X Link 2024-08-29T00:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@1p_semicon I don't see Monolithic Power Systems. Should there be a category for ASIC design services"
X Link 2024-08-29T22:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@IanCutress You'd be surprised how many finance types have zero clue. I guess they've never even known anyone who plays video games. So much so that a recent Bloomberg video had to address it in the beginning - Oh my God No wonder Wall St missed $NVDA for so long https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-08-29/how-nvidia-changed-the-game-videosref=2CIeonw6 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-08-29/how-nvidia-changed-the-game-videosref=2CIeonw6"
X Link 2024-08-30T04:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Things are looking really grim for $INTC Will it slump tomorrow or is all the slumping already done https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1828938071443943445 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-30/intel-is-said-to-explore-options-to-cope-with-historic-slump 🧵 Significant negative news in the potential turnaround of $INTC - https://t.co/bFTmGTfyNG Rather that rehash what's already in the article let me add some other details behind why the resignation of Lip-Bu Tan former CEO of $CDNS is worrisome. /1 https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1828938071443943445"
X Link 2024-08-30T06:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@IanCutress You've hit the nail on the head. Unlike the $MSFT turnaround where they already had Office ported to iOS/Android Azure/.Net on Linux and Satya gave go the ahead to release them Intel was strategically bankrupt and never had any plan B. Only the paranoid survive"
X Link 2024-08-31T22:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Those investors getting excited about a potential spin off of $INTC Foundry should understand the implications of Ian's tweet. There is nothing there to spin off other than a fire sale of equipment buildings and land. /1 https://x.com/IanCutress/status/1829691161210241524 People talking about IFS splitting out. It's highly unlikely right now: IFS is negative margin and the 14/10/7nm fabs can only make Intel products b/c of internal PDKs not using industry standard EDA. Hence UMC/Intel collab on new PDKs to use that equipment but that's in 2027"
X Link 2024-08-31T22:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"It would be vastly better to burn money till the newer nodes ramp up and the older nodes support industry standard EDA tools. At that point why spinoff Intel might as well use it's own fab as its best customer. Can't spin off the products groups as well for licensing reasons /2"
X Link 2024-08-31T23:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"You see Intel doesn't quite own the entirety of the x86 instruction set. The 64-bit extension was invented by $AMD as AMD64 when Intel was dicking around with Itanium & was made to eat humble pie and adopt it when $MSFT said it would not support two different 64-bit x86 ISA. /3"
X Link 2024-08-31T23:06Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"The x86 license agreements between Intel and AMD I believe effectively doesn't allow anyone else to buy either of them without losing the license to the x86 ISA. What would the Intel products group be without that There's just chump change left. /4"
X Link 2024-08-31T23:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"This is what Pat made the plan that he made. The only alternative to his plan is to sell the fab at fire sale liquidation prices and the products group moves to fab at $TSM. That would be colossal strategic loss of semiconductor manufacturing capability in the western world. /5"
X Link 2024-08-31T23:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Speaking of strategy in comparison the turnaround of $MSFT by Satya was easier since they had internally ported Office to iOS/Android. The Windows division was delusional but Azure and .Net were quite far along in adopting Linux. Steve Baller wouldn't release much of these. /6"
X Link 2024-08-31T23:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"But Satya came along pivoted and released them. In comparison $INTC was strategically bankrupt and never even considered scenarios in which they would have to become a serious third party fab and therefore the need to support industry standard EDA methods tools and processes /7"
X Link 2024-08-31T23:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@fabknowledge Yeah but crappy small value stocks sell for 1x P/S. For a product group that is genuinely among the top few in the world at what they do that is a crime"
X Link 2024-09-02T16:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"$INTC cancels the 20A node - [--] nodes in [--] years was always BS meant for uninformed investors. It was always [--] nodes in [--] years as Intel 4/3 and 20A/18A are similar nodes. Intel [--] was just an enhanced Intel 10nm renamed. So it was always 18A or bust /1 https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/opinion/continued-momentum-intel-18a.html https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/opinion/continued-momentum-intel-18a.html"
X Link 2024-09-05T01:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Intel 3/4 seems to be low volume node (so far) unless Xeon [--] volumes surprise. Probably best that 20A was canceled if it really speeds up 18A. $INTC will now live or die by whatever happens with 18A. Expect excruciating focus on how its doing"
X Link 2024-09-05T01:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@joelteply Id like to believe but at this point it would be prudent not to take anything at face value and wait for independent confirmation. E.g. We dont know if they will have the money and secondarily the volume for a decent ramp of 18A. Their own graphs in the past show slow ramp"
X Link 2024-09-05T03:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"So far the only semiconductor analyst with a viable strategy for how to potentially rescue $INTC is @jaygoldberg - I've mentioned this earlier in my posts but people forget that the dark days of $AMD had similarities. The industry just could not . /1 https://digitstodollars.com/2024/09/04/intel-reality/ https://digitstodollars.com/2024/09/04/intel-reality/"
X Link 2024-09-05T23:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
". afford to let $AMD die and some part in it's survival rested on getting revenue from semi-custom work done for others like $MSFT and $SONY for game consoles etc. Okay that was not quite a consortium but no reason why one would not work now if the alternative was for . /2"
X Link 2024-09-05T23:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
". Intel Foundry to die. The industry needs to grow up & realize who is going to fab all the chips in the future as digitization/cloud migration is only going to grow never mind the AI boom/bubble. My thread about the $AMD situation a while ago - /3 https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1761236259400478951 🧵Everyone knows about $NVDA but what were my thoughts when I invested in $AMD back then AMD is a classic example of what Peter Lynch calls a Turnaround like Chrysler with the minivan. AMD's minivan would be the Zen CPU architecture + chiplets + TSMC /1 https://t.co/xjBJb6iG6F"
X Link 2024-09-05T23:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Full Disclosure: I own $INTC $AMD and $MSFT. /END"
X Link 2024-09-05T23:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@jaygoldberg @chernandburn Yeah right. The guys who bailed on their server efforts to take on $INTC in the past at the first sign of trouble when $AVGO made a pass at them. In any case they wont get the x86 license so $AMD will laugh all the way to the bank. Only a brain damaged board would approve this"
X Link 2024-09-06T05:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@fabknowledge You can prove anything by cherry picking dates. Why specifically [--] years Why not [--] years (a bit after $INTC exited the DRAM business) You would still beat the S&P [---] -"
X Link 2024-09-07T02:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheTranscript_ Umm . While Graviton [--] is quite good it simply does not outperform the best x86 processors from $AMD - Also the best $INTC Xeon [--] P core server CPUs (not the E core in that article) have yet to be benchmarked against. Not quite the slam dunk. https://www.phoronix.com/review/graviton4-96-core/5 https://www.phoronix.com/review/graviton4-96-core/5"
X Link 2024-09-10T01:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheTranscript_ Full Disclosure: I hold $AMD and $INTC"
X Link 2024-09-10T01:49Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@long_equity Super Micro I'm sorry but only a naive Semiconductor tourist would think that's in the list of quality Semiconductor companies"
X Link 2024-09-10T22:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@DanGreenhaus I'm sorry can you elaborate on the $TT connection to AI I know they do commercial HVAC and chillers. I'm curious what kind of market share and exposure to the data center market they have Do they collaborate with some of the other better known DC liquid cooling names"
X Link 2024-09-10T23:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@fabknowledge This is a great book. I hope somebody does a modern version of this book about the Apple A/M series development. Or heck maybe the Zen series development when AMD was about to die. One can hope . The closest we came were the ones on the OG Xbox the NT OS and iPhone"
X Link 2024-09-10T23:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@fabknowledge Yeah sure. I've linked them below. They are the ones that I found most similar to "The Soul of a New Machine". I'm sure there are others that folks might want to point out. https://www.amazon.com/Opening-Xbox-Microsofts-Entertainment-Revolution/dp/0761537082 https://www.amazon.com/Show-Stopper-Breakneck-Generation-Microsoft/dp/0029356717 https://www.amazon.com/One-Device-Secret-History-iPhone/dp/031654616X https://www.amazon.com/Opening-Xbox-Microsofts-Entertainment-Revolution/dp/0761537082 https://www.amazon.com/Show-Stopper-Breakneck-Generation-Microsoft/dp/0029356717"
X Link 2024-09-11T01:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@fabknowledge BTW the Xbox was one of $NVDA's first forays into new markets. Based on the chipset for the Xbox they did the nForce chipsets for $AMD CPUs and then they later leveraged the media/audio knowledge into Tegra for the Zune HD (not the original Zune)"
X Link 2024-09-11T02:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@fabknowledge If you are going to spend that much one would think that a natural gas fuel cell based micro grid solution like Bloom Energy would make more sense. Faster to ramp construction. Gas is plenty cheap and available in a lot of the US. Full Disclosure: I hold $BE in a play account"
X Link 2024-09-13T01:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Hmm . One has to but wonder if Lip Bu Tan leaving the $INTC board was to become an independent board member of the to be subsidiary fab. $INTC investors like me should wait with bated breath to see who the board members turn out to be. One can dream😛 https://x.com/realmemes6/status/1835779985459818966 Intel Foundry will become an independent subsidiary inside of Intel. CFO Dave Zinsner said in an interview a bit ago that IFS would continue to become more independent guess this is what it looks like. Also ready for a split or sale if they need to in the future https://t.co/zo4BLjyCKX"
X Link 2024-09-17T00:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks @jaygoldberg and @BenBajarin for explaining "Revlon Mode" Now some of the flurry of activity surrounding $INTC makes sense. It's interesting that the credit/debt side of capitalism is making more serious offers IMO. If that stops start worrying https://x.com/T_h_e_Circuit/status/1838321405198504130 Episode 84: Intel Inlection Point Analyzing the Intel Plan. In this episode @benbajarin @jaygoldberg discuss the Intel BOD plan activists and buyers foundry outlook and more scenarios. Apple Podcasts: https://t.co/LdoiJJ7MOw Spotify: https://t.co/IIqUBpCttY Overcast:"
X Link 2024-09-24T02:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"In case you don't have time to listen - Full Disclosure: I hold $INTC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revlon_Inc._v._MacAndrews_%26_Forbes_Holdings_Inc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revlon_Inc._v._MacAndrews_%26_Forbes_Holdings_Inc"
X Link 2024-09-24T02:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Noonekn62072251 Talk is cheap. Easy to open a brokerage account and some will even pay you. Don't want money now to invest in your sure double There's more than one way to skin the cat. Put options are available in most IRAs"
X Link 2024-09-24T05:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@EricBalchunas But aren't a lot of the active ones just taking over for the higher cost mutual funds or mutual fund share classes (if they exist) E.g. That's the case for me when I'm buying Capital Group ETFs. So in the in the end it seems to be all about costs again"
X Link 2024-09-24T17:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Noonekn62072251 Excuses. There are long term [--] year puts which fit your timeline and they aren't more expensive than shorting. Navistar 🙄🤣 $INTC has been the leading semi fab for most of it's history except for the last [--] years and even then it's been no [--]. I'm going to ignore you from now"
X Link 2024-09-25T00:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Forget about AI replacing programmers. Imagine AI making chip design much easier simpler faster and accessible. If that happens then there will be a tectonic shift and a lot of the value in the semiconductor industry could flow to the fabs and semi cap equipment makers"
X Link 2024-09-28T01:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"If you think this is far-fetched see these videos from nVidia and Google - BTW those are from [----] before the GenAI and LLM explosion. This is a factor I believe in how $NVDA and $GOOGL are now doing yearly AI hardware releases. https://www.youtube.com/watchv=FraDFZ2t__A https://www.youtube.com/watchv=_PlcQUvNeCg https://www.youtube.com/watchv=FraDFZ2t__A https://www.youtube.com/watchv=_PlcQUvNeCg"
X Link 2024-09-29T02:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@MebFaber Is there a minimum how much can be contributed Any restrictions on what kind of stocks Obviously US stocks only but anything else Any fees for the exchange other than the ETF expense ratio I hope brokerages aren't going to play games to try and make it harder"
X Link 2024-10-04T05:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"This is truly a big deal for those who own significant employer stock or any individual stocks for that matter and want to diversify away. Now you can without the immediate tax hit. As Meb says its like [----] in real estate for stocks and you dont need to be rich. /1 If you truly understand the implications this will be a tectonic shift for the asset management industry. More importantly it will benefit all investors rather than only those accredited. Email info@cambriainvestments.com for more info. https://t.co/btMNJGguf5 If you truly understand the implications this will be a tectonic shift"
X Link 2024-10-04T06:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Just how exactly does $NVDA keep the rapid pace of hardware releases (now yearly) Those of you who know Computer Architecture and EDA can find lots of clues in the linked video. I'll point out a few things here. First they use GPUs very well in EDA /1 https://www.youtube.com/watchv=_PlcQUvNeCg https://www.youtube.com/watchv=_PlcQUvNeCg"
X Link 2024-10-09T00:17Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"A few examples are - Regression testing of gate level re-simulation is sped up 14000x by using GPUs This is just by being smart and using parallel computation abilities of the GPU. 2D PCB layout design speedup by 50x (in collab with $CDNS) to almost realtime. /2"
X Link 2024-10-09T00:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"But wait there's more. They do their own standard cell libraries. I suppose they can afford to because they are not always the first on a new node and wait for it to mature for their huge dies. There is an extreme focus on simulation and getting the A stepping back working. /6"
X Link 2024-10-09T00:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"In fact if you research the history of $NVDA and listen to Jensen on how they survived near bankruptcy early on with the RIVA1 [--] it was a bet the farm on simulation that allowed them to. They have never forgotten the lessons. /7"
X Link 2024-10-09T01:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"I'm not hardware engineer (have enough of a background to understand) so maybe this is well known to the practitioners but it's still fascinating. I haven't even touched on the software and systems perspectives but this is getting too long anyway. /9"
X Link 2024-10-09T01:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Full Disclosure: I own $NVDA and $CDNS. /END"
X Link 2024-10-09T01:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@realmemes6 Well $AMD is down because its AI event today didn't impress so $NVDA is up. $INTC is down because Zen [--] Turin is better than Xeon P esp. in 2P. ()/ I own all of them anyway 😛"
X Link 2024-10-10T23:27Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@trengriffin @BenBajarin Sure I agree but would contend that the current impetus wouldnt have happened without those [--]. Why did it take till [----] for AlexNet to be GPU accelerated After all CUDA and GPU based acceleration existed in some form since [----] and less optimal solutions using Cg earlier"
X Link 2024-10-13T00:22Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@af3 @patio11 I can tell you that loans to Physicians became much less friendly during the pandemic. The assumption that their income is rock solid stable ran into once in a hundred-year black swan. Of course it depends on the exact specialty but banks didn't care about the nuances"
X Link 2024-10-25T19:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@patio11 @mewfree Not quite if you work in the bay area. During the GFC home prices in many areas dropped 40-50% and even large tech companies did their first broad based company wide layoffs. The local economy tax revenues and real estate are totally linked to how the tech industry does"
X Link 2024-10-25T19:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@patio11 @mewfree Here's proof in case someone doesn't believe me - You can be financially sophisticated but even your psychologist cannot tell you your real tolerance to a big drawdown. Put at least 10% down to have some skin in the game if you want to go this route. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/09/look-back-in-2006-i-predicted-house.html https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2016/09/look-back-in-2006-i-predicted-house.html"
X Link 2024-10-25T22:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@RajaXg GPUs may be the freight trains of computing being throughput monsters but they still need the CPU cars/trucks (of computing) to get the people/goods to the station to begin with and then get them out at the other end😝 That analogy is something $NVDA architects themselves use"
X Link 2024-10-26T01:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The problem with index deletions is that by the time they get kicked out all the bad news is more than priced in and then they can outperform - Too bad nobody has looked at this in the context of Dow Jones deletions like $INTC https://www.researchaffiliates.com/content/dam/ra/publications/pdf/1043-nixed-the-upside-of-getting-dumped.pdf https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1857280634680680454 I'll post an update when the new ownership data is available but it's going be lonely out there with even pseudo indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average bailing. Is this going to be another case like"
X Link 2024-11-16T02:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@syouth1 Isn't $SGOV (27B net assets 0.09% expense ratio) the right comparison instead of $BIL The latter dropped to 0.14% only after SGOV launched. But yeah it's nice that it's cheaper than their money market funds which SGOV had matched"
X Link 2024-11-23T01:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@8020perspective @syouth1 Meh. Expense ratio isn't everything. How exactly has it managed to underperform both ICSH and SGOV -"
X Link 2024-11-23T03:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Shocking news from Intel on Pat being forced out as CEO. Pretty bad for $INTC as I now think it might be gutted for its parts. Sure Pat made some mistakes but he should have been given more time at least a year or two more. I've sold half my position in $INTC today. /1"
X Link 2024-12-02T20:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"I can't quite bring myself to sell everything as I still want to see what happens. Who knows maybe Lip Bu Tan comes back as CEO I mean one can dream But don't forget this is the same board that let things get this bad. I don't have much confidence in them at this point. /2"
X Link 2024-12-02T20:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"It takes a really long time to turn a semiconductor ship around. Just look at $AMD and how long that took. It typically takes around [--] years for a CPU design. Many of the things coming out of $INTC today are due to decisions taken before Pat. /3"
X Link 2024-12-02T20:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Here's my crazy outlandish idea - Pat gets together with a few folks like Lip Bu Tan Jim Keller etc. and convinces Warren Buffett to take $INTC private. Then fire existing board and do the right thing. God knows he has the money for it and had made a pass at $TSM before. /1"
X Link 2024-12-03T00:56Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting new happenings in the tech soap opera that is the $INTC board. Appointing Steve Sanghi of Microchip and former ASML CEO Eric Meurice to the board - They are actually doing something sensible How does this happen after they push out Pat /1 https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1721/intel-appoints-semiconductor-leaders-eric-meurice-and-steve https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1721/intel-appoints-semiconductor-leaders-eric-meurice-and-steve"
X Link 2024-12-05T15:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@BenBajarin @handleym99 In general the press is pretty clueless about highly technical things. While most financial analysts covering semiconductors are not so great either how are so many idiotic stories about Intel flying around Someone wants to buy them even cheaper"
X Link 2024-12-05T18:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@BenBajarin @handleym99 I honestly hope you are right. There is some suspicious heavy selling of $INTC going on today. Either somebody knows something or this is clueless panic selling. But yeah any yield % can be true depending on the die size and Im not sure how much Korean press can be trusted"
X Link 2024-12-05T19:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@BenBajarin @handleym99 But that was a few days ago. It seems the original source is NYT where an anonymous person is comparing $TSM N2 yields to $INTC 18A yields so not quite Apples to Oranges although 18A is more complicated due to GAA and BSPDN. No idea why folks are freaking today on Korean copy "The industry analyzed that the yield of the 18A process that Intel was planning to mass produce next year was less than 10%. As a result its customer Broadcom canceled its semiconductor orders for Intel." https://t.co/f95bGjXhsO "The industry analyzed that the yield of the 18A process that Intel"
X Link 2024-12-05T19:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@lithos_graphein @jamesproud Any thoughts on 30% on $TSM N2 vs 10% on $INTC for what is obviously a large die On the one hand BSPDN is more complicated but thats still a significant difference considering both are supposed to be in HVM around the same time. Then again one cant expect Intel to match TSMC"
X Link 2024-12-05T19:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@lithos_graphein @jamesproud Sure but doesnt it mean that TSMC is ahead of Intel at least in the trajectory of improving yields Ive seen D0 graphs of some new TSMC nodes starting out better than [---] that Intel shared. No idea how much to handicap for BSPDN"
X Link 2024-12-05T19:50Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@DreadyBear @JamesDSneed @lithos_graphein But one has to at least consider the possibility that TSMC countered with its own D0 number for N2 that works out to 30% yield for the large switch dies that Broadcom has. 10% for Intel works out to be approximately right for such sizes given [---] D0. Just saying 🤷🏻♂"
X Link 2024-12-05T20:18Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@DreadyBear @JamesDSneed @lithos_graphein Well the D0 for 18A has been publicly shared by Intel. It could still be true that TSMC D0 implies better yields than Intel. Broadcom didnt comment on how much better TSMC is and AFAIK what die size for the comment about Intel"
X Link 2024-12-05T20:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@fabknowledge @MowTrader So what are your thoughts about him being on the Intel board now"
X Link 2024-12-05T21:31Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@fabknowledge @MowTrader Just read. Agree with most of it but would be curious to know what the heck happened with Lip-Bu Tan. We can guess but still. Not sure if I agree that design will be the one left as public Intel due to CHIPs money restrictions. Maybe design is spun off with gutted fab left"
X Link 2024-12-05T21:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@fabknowledge I posted this in another reply as well but does anyone know what the heck happened with Lip-Bu Tan on the board We can guess but does anyone actually know He was the best qualified board member bar none so something must have been wrong for him to quit which gives me pause"
X Link 2024-12-05T22:00Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"I've come to the realization that Lip-Bu Tan as Intel CEO is quite unlikely to happen. Those of us who have an investing interest in $INTC or just plain want Intel to succeed for the good of the industry/country might be wishing for it in vain - /1 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/business/economy/china-chips-house-select-committee.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/business/economy/china-chips-house-select-committee.html"
X Link 2024-12-07T02:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Given the CHIPS act money Intel is getting the other DoD RAMP-C funding and the current climate it's unlikely that the government would be okay with it. Don't forget that as part of the CHIPS money there are clear restrictions on ownership stake percentage in Intel. /2"
X Link 2024-12-07T02:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"This has a fair bit of implications and there are some fringe scenarios in which it could still happen. I'm going to make another detailed post of what I think of investing in $INTC going forward given all this. /END"
X Link 2024-12-07T02:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@rationalyst @PGelsinger @MichaelDell $AMD tried that with Global Foundries and it was a disaster. What's worse there is nothing much to spin off right now - /1 https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1830017523003371623 Those investors getting excited about a potential spin off of $INTC Foundry should understand the implications of Ian's tweet. There is nothing there to spin off other than a fire sale of equipment buildings and land. /1 https://t.co/TPtoWtHGUa https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1830017523003371623 Those investors getting excited about a potential spin off of $INTC Foundry should"
X Link 2024-12-08T06:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@EricBalchunas Not just Bogle. Here's some more data and perspective - Given that it's better IMO to use bonds and managed futures for diversification against US stocks. https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/08/23/how-useful-is-international-diversification/ https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/08/23/how-useful-is-international-diversification/"
X Link 2024-12-11T07:38Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@mbnate @EricBalchunas @dabner Bid ask spreads since ETFs trades can execute at wider spreads from NAV. What time do you execute the order What if liquidity is low then Need some kind of automated solution for the easy rebalancing MFs enable in 401k. If allowed to buy at NAV end of day then few will trade"
X Link 2024-12-13T07:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@AnetaSali168 But on the flip side APs make less money if trading activity is reduced. Only long-established ETFs could make it work. And even then it will likely increase bid ask spreads for regular trading"
X Link 2024-12-14T04:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@BenBajarin LOL. Still keeps happening . My prediction: As that as long as such people exist nVidia will continue to be underrated and keep doing well. Full Disclosure: I hold $NVDA"
X Link 2025-01-07T18:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@JRogrow I'm late to this but thanks. Has a better Sortino ratio and factor alpha than legendary Joel Tillinghast of $FLPSX from start to end [----] when Joel retired. Ofc by that time Joel was well known and must labored against huge bloat. Still shows what undiscovered managers can do"
X Link 2025-01-09T00:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@InformedByIan 💯I bought a house & my auto insurer of 15+ years Farmers refused to offer fire insurance. Like a fool I complained to the CA insurance commission 🤣Got a letter that they cannot do anything🙄 Insult to injury they dropped my umbrella policy saying I don't have home ins. with em"
X Link 2025-01-10T01:38Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"From the time Berkshire Hathaway's Class B shares were available in Jun [----] till end of [----] which of the following would have given you better returns S&P [---] (SPY ETF) Berkshire Hathaway Stock A boring defensive stock S&P [---] (SPY ETF) Berkshire Hathaway Stock A boring defensive stock"
X Link 2025-01-30T03:01Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"The answer is - A boring defensive stock. Specifically the utility Southern Company $SO. It managed to slightly edge out Buffett in returns but also did better on a risk adjusted basis. Not just risk ratios for the period but also rolling returns. /1 https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1884799032880722047 From the time Berkshire Hathaway's Class B shares were available in Jun [----] till end of [----] which of the following would have given you better returns https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1884799032880722047 From the time Berkshire Hathaway's Class B shares were available in Jun [----] till end"
X Link 2025-02-04T18:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Nicholas_Meyers @NomadicSamuel @EconomPic You might already know this but the $TCAF ETF which mimics $PRWCX philosophy is stock only. While possibly great thing I'm not 100% convinced it will do that well without all the tricks of mixing things that happen within PRWCX"
X Link 2025-02-04T19:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@BenBajarin @LisaSu @T_h_e_Circuit Right. Something people forget or don't know is why did the architecture of GPUs win [--] years ago for graphics Graphics was the original parallel problem. If other approaches didn't win then why should they now other than in niche specific areas After all Cg begat CUDA"
X Link 2025-02-04T23:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@harri37108 @BenBajarin @LisaSu @T_h_e_Circuit They do have some niche aspects of this like the nVdia NIM Metropolis Omniverse etc. but running a cloud service at scale is a lot of work and capex. So why do that unless they bring something unique. In the mean while they can make money in an easier way selling GPUs"
X Link 2025-02-05T01:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@BenBajarin @T_h_e_Circuit Fun episode as usual. Just one question - Who exactly are these $INTC investors you refer to Just one active institution left holding a significant stake (Primecap). The rest are index/passive who don't care. As for the small ones do they matter and can they do anything"
X Link 2025-02-06T03:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@EliorUzan92 @lithos_graphein @firstadopter Interesting. Thx. Regardless Im sure things $NVDA did (see the YouTube link in my post thread) are impactful. One has been adopted by $TSM via cuLitho. I think Bill Dally talked about it a bit in that video years before it got productised last year. https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/tsmc-culitho-computational-lithography/ https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/tsmc-culitho-computational-lithography/"
X Link 2025-02-06T07:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@cis_female @_clarktang There are significant costs for masks and wafers these days at the leading edge. Even if you manage to make a semi decent chip you need to keep up on the treadmill of yearly updates. All the companies that tried to compete with $NVDA in the graphics found out it was every 6m /2"
X Link 2025-02-08T17:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JohnHuber72 The market kind of shares your concern. Hence the slowdown in the hyperscalers' price rise of late. Also why Semiconductor stocks have been rewarded in the past few years. They are the ones really making money in this boom. We are made to pay by things like MS Office price rise"
X Link 2025-02-08T19:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Still listening to this excellent episode interviewing Morris Chang of $TSM and the stories from his latest memoir but two things struck me that I had to share. First TSMC's board has had 75% westerners for a long time. Sure enough still seems true. /1 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tsmc-founder-morris-chang/id1050462261i=1000685569822 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tsmc-founder-morris-chang/id1050462261i=1000685569822"
X Link 2025-02-09T02:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"And many with Semi industry experience. Contrast that with the bumbling derelict board members that $INTC has had many without any relevant experience. Can there be a starker contrast Boards are not everything but they matter and can make a difference. /2"
X Link 2025-02-09T02:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The second thing that struck me was his belief that you should not fire the bottom performers in a recession (or otherwise). Please go and listen to why he says that and what you should do instead. I totally agree Contrast that with the American and tech industry . /3"
X Link 2025-02-09T02:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
". practice in many firms of slavishly following the GE/Jack Welch-esq management practice of firing the bottom 10% or x% of performers. Morris Change you are a better man and manager than most I have seen Full Disclosure: I hold $TSM /END"
X Link 2025-02-09T03:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@rationalyst True. Also of late the $AAPL and $TSM partnership. Apple is the pipe cleaner for new process node development. Without the learning scale via them for a new node it would have been harder for TSMC to exceed $INTC. $NVDA doesn't use new node at start due to being reticle limited"
X Link 2025-02-10T18:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@EricBalchunas Let me contribute something obscure that few know about - $BE Bloom Energy. One of the most successful public tech/semiconductor investor happens to have the max possible ownership (for them) in it. Full Disclosure: I own a medium size position in $BE in a "fun" portfolio"
X Link 2025-02-24T01:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@realmemes6 It's quite something when Craig Barrett himself is calling for the board to be fired But he's not blameless having presided over $INTC's close shave on 64-bit to $AMD and sale of the XScale ARM division to $MRVL - https://x.com/OutspokenGeek/status/1866119483238076417 The best summary of the situation is by SemiAnalysis and I agree with a lot of it - https://t.co/RLspIJfwXD While Paul Otellini and Brian Krzanich deserve a lot of the scorn being heaped on why Intel is in the situation it is now I think Craig Barrett shares some blame. /2"
X Link 2025-03-03T01:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MaxWinebach It's a bit ridiculous that you can 2x the perf of $INTC Meteor Lake CPUs (on battery) with these. My $2200+ Thinkpad X1 Carbon weeps looking at these $800 to $1100 options with Keyboard. Yes there is Lunar Lake but more expensive and rarer. x86 is so far behind"
X Link 2025-03-04T19:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@theaustinlyons The graphics competitors in the late 90s certainly could not keep up $NVDA's blistering pace of new hardware. Every one of them except $AMD(ATI) gave up. Of course the hyperscalers have deeper pockets but my guess is only one more other than Google TPU among them will make it"
X Link 2025-03-06T20:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@MaxWinebach @lover_sams1535 @iHateApplee Umm . I'm pretty sure one can configure x86 workstations with way more RAM and GPUs that actually work with CUDA. Here's just one example - https://www.dell.com/en-us/shop/cty/pdp/spd/precision-t7960-workstation#configurations_section https://www.dell.com/en-us/shop/cty/pdp/spd/precision-t7960-workstation#configurations_section"
X Link 2025-03-11T18:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MaxWinebach @lover_sams1535 @iHateApplee Here's another if you want more cores and $AMD instead - I'm sure HP Lenovo et al have similar things https://www.dell.com/en-us/shop/cty/pdp/spd/precision-t7875-workstation https://www.dell.com/en-us/shop/cty/pdp/spd/precision-t7875-workstation"
X Link 2025-03-11T18:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"While I might not agree 100% with everything he's a very insightful and astute observer for anyone who follows $INTC seriously and could have saved a lot of heartache for $INTC investors with all the shenanigans that happened. Highly recommended. /END"
X Link 2025-03-14T18:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@walnutavevalue Yes. There are the rare boring neglected ones like $COCO. I managed to snag some cheap after the post IPO drop but even those who got an allocation made money. I hold it in a "fun portfolio" which is just a medium for me to learn about investing in non-Semiconductor stocks"
X Link 2025-03-14T20:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@walnutavevalue @Larryjamieson_ Absolutely. He had his faults for sure but few realize that without his focus on enterprise software MS wouldn't even get to Azure. He also gave things a lot of time to work out. His mistake was he should have had a good technical sidekick to replace Bill Gates"
X Link 2025-03-14T20:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@walnutavevalue @Larryjamieson_ Funny thing is that compressing multiples only matter when buying at the wrong time or high enough valuations. E.g. If you bought Microsoft early enough like around IPO Apple never ever catches up. The Buffett [--] slot punch card thing really works for quality names held forever"
X Link 2025-03-14T23:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@realmemes6 @lithos_graphein Even better use TypeScript or some other more modern language that transpiles to JavaScript like it"
X Link 2025-03-16T05:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
""Once instruction overhead is amortized by large ML oriented instructions our completely programmable GPU is as efficient at Deep Learning as a hard-wired accelerator like a TPU or one of the other special purpose chips" Bill Dally https://www.youtube.com/watchv=kLiwvnr4L80&t=870s&ab_channel=PaulG.AllenSchool That's not all. They actually design and produce specialized accelerators to prototype features for GPUs What doesn't work gets discarded and what works goes into the next GPU. How do you like your chances now random AI hardware startup /4"
X Link 2025-03-18T04:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Once again how do you like your chances now random AI hardware startup Even hyperscalers you had better be very sure about getting a return on all that NRE unless you have significant internal AI workloads like Google (and maybe Meta). Some of the rest will likely fail"
X Link 2025-03-18T04:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
""Of the 1000x perf improvement in ML ops in the past [--] years only about 2.5x came from process technology Moore's Law" (Paraphrasing) Bill Dally Let's see the $NVDA stock has only gone up a few hundred times in the past [--] years. Seems fair https://www.youtube.com/watchv=kLiwvnr4L80&t=782s&ab_channel=PaulG.AllenSchool https://www.youtube.com/watchv=kLiwvnr4L80&t=782s&ab_channel=PaulG.AllenSchool"
X Link 2025-03-18T04:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Also explains why $TSM didn't go up as much. Again seems fair Although in the future with the horde of AI/ML startups trying guess who benefits a bit more"
X Link 2025-03-18T05:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Now don't forget the human brain does this in about 20W vs likely hundreds of watts for the GPU. But it will be fascinating to see what this unleashes and if Ray will win. FWIW I think the human brain capability is more than that simplistic metric. /3"
X Link 2025-03-18T19:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Dog_wiff_hat 🤣Well we definitely have that reached that level of "brain" capability at low power I suppose. That robot on stage looked about as smart and capable as my dog or maybe a young toddler"
X Link 2025-03-18T21:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@BenBajarin @Arm Another one bites the dust 🎵🎵🎶 SoftBank the savior of failed AI hardware and now CPU hardware startups. I guess they can all now go work on OpenAI's hardware efforts"
X Link 2025-03-20T01:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@insane_analyst WTF is that Cookie Cake $NVDA wouldnt quite be where it is today without Microsoft in a way if you know the history. Still important today. GPU AI and lets hope a good CPU as well soon"
X Link 2025-03-20T05:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@fabknowledge Yeah but $NKE is also in a bit of an $INTC like situation due to a major self-inflicted injury. They might take a year or two to turn around but if and when they do I don't think there is a brand of its caliber you could buy cheaper. Not advice. Do your own DD"
X Link 2025-03-21T17:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PatrickMoorhead Theres got to be some connection with the licensing with MediaTek. Is $NVDA getting some client side IP for low power Mediatek announces it will have access to NV IP for its custom ASIC business. https://t.co/dNNlDqInaK Mediatek announces it will have access to NV IP for its custom ASIC business. https://t.co/dNNlDqInaK"
X Link 2025-03-22T06:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@firstadopter You are right about the R300. But its also true that the dot com bust bottomed in end [----] (Oct to be precise) with an 80+% drop in tech stocks over the previous [--] years. Its hard to parse out how much of the 80+% drop for $NVDA was R300 and how much the last throes of dot com"
X Link 2025-03-25T05:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@psarofagis $AAPL. Left for dead by everyone in the 90s due to the Wintel onslaught till Jobs came back convinces $MSFT to invest $150m Jobs' NeXT becomes MacOS develops iPod iPhone iPad and becomes the largest stock. Is there a bigger turnaround in terms of magnitude"
X Link 2025-03-25T17:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
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