[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @NickTimiraos Nick Timiraos Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faced criticism from President Trump and others over the Fed's interest rate policy, with Trump expressing frustration over the Fed's "total and complete moron" and implying he may accelerate the announcement of a new Fed chair. Powell testified before Congress, emphasizing that the Fed is not yet ready to look through tariff-driven price increases and that inflation risks remain. Economists and Fed officials are debating the potential for interest rate cuts, with some arguing that recent improvements in inflation data could warrant a cut, while others see risks from tariffs and a strong labor market. ### Engagements: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::59603406/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXXXX +19% - X Month XXXXXXXXXX +60% - X Months XXXXXXXXXX +147% - X Year XXXXXXXXXX +29% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::59603406/posts_active)  - X Week XX -XX% - X Month XXX +112% - X Months XXX +121% - X Year XXX +53% ### Followers: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::59603406/followers)  - X Week XXXXXXX +0.29% - X Month XXXXXXX +1% - X Months XXXXXXX +11% - X Year XXXXXXX +27% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::59603406/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::59603406/influence) --- **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #979 [stocks](/list/stocks) XXXX% [countries](/list/countries) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [fed](/topic/fed) #101, [inflation](/topic/inflation) #311, [fed chair](/topic/fed-chair) #47, [powell](/topic/powell) #247, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs) #205, [bessent](/topic/bessent) #6, [federal reserve](/topic/federal-reserve) #55, [treasury secretary](/topic/treasury-secretary) #30, [jerome powell](/topic/jerome-powell) 3.41%, [fomc](/topic/fomc) #1 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@rev_cap](/creator/undefined) [@joperec](/creator/undefined) [@dannydayan5](/creator/undefined) [@dadbodwho](/creator/undefined) [@howardaulsbrook](/creator/undefined) [@jacksonleeburn1](/creator/undefined) [@gufinpolicy](/creator/undefined) [@convertbond](/creator/undefined) [@jeffzorzmy](/creator/undefined) [@beijingbeefback](/creator/undefined) [@technicaltrendf](/creator/undefined) [@catholicgop2016](/creator/undefined) [@pgrills24](/creator/undefined) [@iml84myd8s](/creator/undefined) [@schwartzbwsj](/creator/undefined) [@loganmohtashami](/creator/undefined) [@flyalex666](/creator/undefined) [@yahoofinance](/creator/undefined) [@texasrunnerdfw](/creator/undefined) [@jasonpiepmeier](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::59603406/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "On making Bessent his Fed chair Trump says the Treasury secretary "is an option" but he's not the top option "because I like the job he's doing." "I do like the job he's done. So in that sense probably it's not that much of an option.""  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945295978216436058) 2025-07-16 01:34:37 UTC 424K followers, 93K engagements "It's still a slow-to-hire slow-to-fire labor market. Employers added 147000 jobs in June. Total private sector hiring was 74000. The unemployment rate fell to XXX% Job growth for April and May was revised *up* by 16000 jobs on net"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1940750782275768530) 2025-07-03 12:33:38 UTC 424K followers, 174.4K engagements "Removing Powell as Fed chair could lead to a messy drawn-out standoff. The Fed owns its buildings and controls its security. If Trump attempts removal Powell could try to stay until the courts uphold it or the Senate confirms a replacement"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945656588519240140) 2025-07-17 01:27:33 UTC 424K followers, 92K engagements "Penns Peter Conti-Brown: We are in a high-stakes moment in the history of the Federal Reserve. It seems clear to me that the Trump administration using various mechanisms has now cooked up a post-hoc explanation for Powells removal"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1944366552226140444) 2025-07-13 12:01:25 UTC 424K followers, 232.7K engagements "Fed governor Chris Waller: The Fed can lower rates because the short-term rate is still "pretty restrictive." He thinks rates are XXX pp above a long-run steady state neutral. "Were just too tight." "I'm kind of in the minority on this." "Ive tried to lay out in economic terms why we could to this. Its not political.""  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1943371627573510183) 2025-07-10 18:07:56 UTC 424K followers, 209.6K engagements "Senate Majority Leader John Thune said markets want an independent Federal Reserve that isn't subject to political whims and suggested firing Powell could be damaging to financial markets. From a Wednesday interview on Fox: BAIER: President Trump asked House Republicans on Tuesday during a meeting in the Oval whether he should fire the Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell. They expressed approval. So as the head of the Senate Republicans do you think the President should fire the Fed chair What do you think that would do THUNE: Well I think that ultimately the president probably will make that"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945805289598353744) 2025-07-17 11:18:27 UTC 424K followers, 51.1K engagements "The June jobs report does little to reconcile a hazy outlook for Fed cuts besides very likely torpedoing whatever chance there was of a July cut particularly if stocks continue to push to new highs. If you thought the labor market was gently cooling and were worried about a non-linear rise in unemployment you'll be able to point to the narrow breadth of hiring to sustain this argument. If you thought the labor market was in fundamentally decent shape and bound to hit choppy air amid the April policy chaos on tariffs plus more muscular efforts to deport workers here illegally (which hits"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1940778321706435060) 2025-07-03 14:23:04 UTC 424K followers, 67.7K engagements "Seasonally adjusted core goods inflation was +0.20% in June the firmest reading since February. Shelter was a mild +0.18% the softest since early 2021. Core services ex housing was +0.21%"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945221995362226503) 2025-07-15 20:40:38 UTC 424K followers, 48.8K engagements "Meanwhile personal consumption appears to be slowing though the large decline (-0.3%) for May is partly (largely) payback for the increase in auto sales to get ahead of the tariffs. Discretionary services spending not as poor but not great"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1938593595902370144) 2025-06-27 13:41:45 UTC 424K followers, 28.6K engagements "The manufacturing ISM printed at XXXX% in January. U.S. manufacturing activity expanded in January after XX consecutive months of contraction"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1886430829468917955) 2025-02-03 15:05:32 UTC 424K followers, 74.1K engagements "When people ask me about various internet rumormongering my first instinct is to ignore it in the same way the TV cameras don't show the streaker running on the field at Yankee Stadium. But for people who really do wonder about whether the Fed chair would do the opposite of what he keeps saying he will do (which is to serve out his term as chair now just XX months to go) I reflect on how Powell answered the question about getting in the life raft six years ago. I included that answer in my book because it doesn't get any more absolute: I will never ever ever leave this job voluntarily until"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1943832535319888249) 2025-07-12 00:39:25 UTC 424K followers, 406.4K engagements "It's a Captain Obvious point but: this is setting up to be the most unusual Fed chair succession in over a generation. The first since Volcker succeeded Bill Miller in which the incoming chair promises to take the Fed in a very different direction from his or her predecessor"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945855093301006620) 2025-07-17 14:36:21 UTC 424K followers, 65.8K engagements "There could be a choose-your-own narrative quality to today's CPI report. Core prices rose XXXX% which just happens to be the median MoM rise in core prices over the previous XX months (meaning six months were above and six months were below). This is ever so slightly on the soft side of what was expected by some forecasters but the bottom line is that most of those forecasters expect more meaningful tariff effects in July and August . and goods prices were firmer in June. If you think the worst of the tariff-driven price hikes is still ahead then this report doesn't change your underlying"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945108955543302623) 2025-07-15 13:11:28 UTC 424K followers, 223.1K engagements "Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked down in the New York Fed's survey for June. Shorter- and longer-term inflation expectations in this survey are back to where they were before the tariff "bump" in the spring"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1942599807937212664) 2025-07-08 15:01:00 UTC 424K followers, 71.4K engagements "The Fed minutes tell us something we already knew: Officials are divided into three groups 1) Cut this year but not July (the largest group) 2) No cuts this year 3) Cut as soon as the next meeting (which the minutes suggest is only a "couple" ie Waller and Bowman)"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1943009428090827095) 2025-07-09 18:08:41 UTC 424K followers, 268.5K engagements "Hassett to ABC News on whether Trump uses the Fed building expenses as a pretext to get what he wants which is a new Fed chair. HASSETT: "I think that whether the president decides to push down that road or not is going to depend a lot on the answers that we get to the questions that Russ Vought sent to the Fed." "The bottom line is that there's a key statutory problem. In 1913 when we founded the Fed the U.S. was under a gold standard. So it was never envisioned never envisioned by the people that voted for the construction of the Fed that we currently see that the Fed could print money and"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1944440773031686341) 2025-07-13 16:56:20 UTC 424K followers, 354K engagements "Trump says he thinks the Fed should set interest rates at 1%. He also says he won't consider anyone for Fed chair who supports holding rates where they are. "Whoever is in there will lower rates." On Powell's successor: "I'm going to put somebody that wants to cut rates.""  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1938707752911520145) 2025-06-27 21:15:22 UTC 423.8K followers, 773.3K engagements "If people really want to crawl down the rabbit hole of what the Federal Reserve is allowed to do with its finances for the purposes of its buildings (how else does one spend a weekend in Washington these days) they'll find some fairly complete answers in the Federal Reserve Act including as it was amended in December 2000 when Congress explicitly provided for the Fed to expand. (emphasis is mine) "The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System shall have power to levy semiannually upon the Federal reserve banks in proportion to their capital stock and surplus an assessment sufficient to"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1944442302304518284) 2025-07-13 17:02:25 UTC 424K followers, 57.3K engagements "(Breakeven job growth refers to the number of monthly payroll gains needed on average to hold the unemployment rate steady. If these estimates are right the economy could add very few jobs for the rest of the year without a meaningful rise in the unemployment rate). This would be in some ways the inverse of 2023-24 where the unemployment rate edged up during a period of above-expectations job growth"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1940415019188961387) 2025-07-02 14:19:26 UTC 424K followers, 31.7K engagements "Join us here for a conversation on the economy and markets:"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945181569129316675) 2025-07-15 18:00:00 UTC 424K followers, 51.1K engagements "But then there's this: "Several participants commented that the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be far above its neutral level." Translation: Outside of a serious slowdown they're not envisioning a lot more reductions even if they do resume cuts"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1943009836670620093) 2025-07-09 18:10:19 UTC 423.8K followers, 47K engagements "The Fed added to FAQs on its building project on Sunday that provide lots of context including that the Fed's collaboration with the NCPCthe body that now includes three White House advisers installed by Trump last weekwas voluntary and doesn't extend to any financial oversight of the project: "The Board generally is not subject to direction from the NCPC on its building projects." This explanation follows a separate lengthy answer about who does oversee the Fed (their answer: Congress and also an IG; but not the OMB nor the NCPC)"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1944581333537505747) 2025-07-14 02:14:53 UTC 424K followers, 60K engagements "Powell: If not for the expectations of higher inflation this year from tariffs "we would have continued cutting.""  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1937524062441361761) 2025-06-24 14:51:48 UTC 424K followers, 560.9K engagements "(Full quote: "If you just look at the basic data and don't look at the forecast you would say that we would've continued cutting. The difference of course is at this time all forecasters are expecting pretty soon that some significant inflation will show up from tariffs. And we can't just ignore that.")"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1937525535392878761) 2025-06-24 14:57:39 UTC 424K followers, 67.3K engagements "Bessent: There are good candidates on the Fed board for Fed chair so I dont find this public pressuring of the Fed disruptive at all"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1941870430437978171) 2025-07-06 14:42:43 UTC 423.9K followers, 129.3K engagements "Kevin Hassett one of Trumps closest economic advisers is emerging as a serious contender to be the next Fed chair. Hassetts rise threatens the other Kevinformer Fed governor Kevin Warshwho has angled for the position ever since Trump passed him over for it eight years ago"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1942754946190901693) 2025-07-09 01:17:28 UTC 424K followers, 206.5K engagements "Hassett: Theres absolutely no excuse other than partisanship for the Fed not to cut rates"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1937951522610135051) 2025-06-25 19:10:23 UTC 424K followers, 40K engagements "Trump's latest Fed attack is playing out in the court of public opinionnot a court of law. An institution that depends on credibility is defending spending choices on buildings issues with greater salience than the arcane details of rate policy"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945778002148687966) 2025-07-17 09:30:01 UTC 424K followers, 42.1K engagements "It's a holiday week so insert all requisite caveats about leaning on one week of data etc. But jobless claims last week don't point to any signs of an imminent increase in layoffs while continuing claims continue to suggest it is taking folks a bit longer to find new jobs"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1943414502118068563) 2025-07-10 20:58:18 UTC 424K followers, 35.9K engagements "PSA: Join me at X p.m. ET on Tuesday for this webinar on the economy and markets with Lael Brainard and Joe Amato at @GUFinPolicy Register here:"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1944849382358311388) 2025-07-14 20:00:00 UTC 424K followers, 88.6K engagements "Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the Fed should be able to cut rates by September based on their own criteria for lowering rates. INGRAHAM: Do you think Powell will lower rates by the fall as it looks like Goldman Sachs is even beginning to recommend from their latest recommendations N.B.: Goldman was predicting what the Fed was most likely to do based on Goldman's economic forecast and evaluation of the Fed's reaction function to said forecast BESSENT: Look I think if the criteria is that tariffs were not inflationary if they're going to follow that criteria I think that they could do"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1940585349572640944) 2025-07-03 01:36:16 UTC 424K followers, 151.6K engagements "JPM economists on the OBBB: The deficit should rise close to a percentage point between FY25 and FY26 to over X% of GDP and stay wide thereafter. The bill also implies nearly no fiscal thrust next fiscal year once tariff revenue is factored in and we adjust for some CBO accounting conventions"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1940733758535012817) 2025-07-03 11:25:59 UTC 423.8K followers, 120K engagements "Yellen: I don't talk to Secretary Bessent. He has undone everything I worked on at Treasury. Bessent: "I couldn't even tell you what Secretary Yellen's China policy was aside from consuming beer and mushrooms." via @bobdavis187"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1946273159021306139) 2025-07-18 18:17:35 UTC 424K followers, 138.4K engagements "CPI is close to consensus. Not as mild as May. Core prices rose XXXX% in June. 12-month inflation was XXX% Headline prices rose 0.29%. 12-month inflation was 2.6%"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945100310176809346) 2025-07-15 12:37:06 UTC 424K followers, 317.2K engagements "Waller removes any doubt: He'll vote for a July cut. The opening line of the speech gets to the point: My purpose this evening is to explain why I believe that the FOMC should reduce our policy rate by XX basis points at our next meeting"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945974483426173189) 2025-07-17 22:30:45 UTC 424K followers, 414.3K engagements "Kevin Warsh to Larry Kudlow on FBN: -"You can have materially lower interest rates" if the Fed would shrink a couple trillion dollars off the balance sheet. -"We're in a housing recession right now." -Financial market conditions are loose. -"Tariffs are not inflationary.""  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1942384144077709575) 2025-07-08 00:44:02 UTC 424K followers, 116.8K engagements "Kevin Warsh is asked by @BeckyQuick if the next Fed chair is going to be indepedent. Warsh: "In a word yes. Ive strongly believed for XX years and history tells us that the independent operations in the conduct of monetary policy is essential.""  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945818618937201146) 2025-07-17 12:11:24 UTC 424K followers, 60.1K engagements "President Trump denied that he was planning to attempt to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell after polling GOP lawmakers during a closed-door meeting about whether he should oust him. I dont rule out anything but I think its highly unlikely.""  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945520463741956539) 2025-07-16 16:26:39 UTC 424K followers, 67.7K engagements "Austan Goolsbee says tariff re-escalation would complicate decisions around cuts: "The more we keep adding things to the mix that make it hard to figure out Are prices going to be rising or not The more its just throwing more dirt back in the air.""  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1943750726733508987) 2025-07-11 19:14:21 UTC 424K followers, 61.5K engagements "OMB Director Vought takes up the Fed building renovation project line of questions initiated by the Senate Banking Committee Chair Sen. Tim Scott at the recent policy hearing"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1943376342973632551) 2025-07-10 18:26:41 UTC 424K followers, 86.6K engagements "No pickup in seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment benefits last week. Continuing claims continue to point to a slightly less tight labor market compared to a year ago"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945824468527419473) 2025-07-17 12:34:39 UTC 424K followers, 39.3K engagements "Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan: "My base case is that we'll need to keep interest rates modestly restrictive for some time" But "it's also possible that some combination of softer inflation and a weakening labor market will call for lower rates fairly soon.""  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945269648762572899) 2025-07-15 23:50:00 UTC 424K followers, 71.2K engagements "The next few months of inflation data will offer a key test of competing theories about whether tariffs will prove inflationary and animate potential Fed divisions over how to manage any costs if forecasts are wrongin either direction"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1943121064172593441) 2025-07-10 01:32:17 UTC 424K followers, 94.8K engagements "ADP reports private payrolls lost 33000 jobs in June. May was revised down to a gain of 29000 from an initially reported gain of 37000. Heading into the teeth of the post-Liberation Day hard data"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1940387643390558393) 2025-07-02 12:30:39 UTC 424K followers, 261.4K engagements "From the same survey: Conventional ARMs composed over XX% of large bank first-mortgage originations compared to only XXX% in Q1 2021"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1943420321853280390) 2025-07-10 21:21:26 UTC 423.8K followers, 30.6K engagements "Trump unloads again on Powell (via Truth Social): I dont know why the Board doesnt override this Total and Complete Moron Maybe just maybe Ill have to change my mind about firing him But regardless his Term ends shortly I fully understand that my strong criticism of him makes it more difficult for him to do what he should be doing lowering Rates"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1936186675928928320) 2025-06-20 22:17:30 UTC 423.9K followers, 355.1K engagements "Trump: "These tariffs may be modified upward or downward depending on our relationship with your country.""  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1942260330702242017) 2025-07-07 16:32:02 UTC 424K followers, 457K engagements "Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin asked a business exec: Are you raising prices because of tariff costs or just using 'tariff noise' as cover "It's both" the exec admitted. "And I feel a little guilty saying that." An economic detective hits the road:"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1941475863549313441) 2025-07-05 12:34:51 UTC 424K followers, 188.4K engagements "At a meeting with investors last month Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent lamented Fed Chair Jay Powells caution on rates after having misjudged inflation as transitory in 2021. Attendees said Bessent compared the Fed chair to an old man who having hurt himself after a bad fall was now more likely to fall again because he is always looking down at his feet when he takes a step"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1942963220093780069) 2025-07-09 15:05:04 UTC 424K followers, 148.3K engagements "Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who last year floated the idea of naming a "shadow" Fed chair to undercut Jay Powell said the idea of Powell remaining on the Fed board after his term as governor would be "very confusing for the market.""  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945112591543451724) 2025-07-15 13:25:54 UTC 424K followers, 109.5K engagements "Alternate inflation measures (median and trimmed-mean) CPI showed more price pressures. The Cleveland Fed's XX% trimmed mean inflation gauge (which strips out the items with the largest price changes on the high and low side) was the second highest since early 2024"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945225077718482953) 2025-07-15 20:52:53 UTC 424K followers, 25.6K engagements "Philly Fed: In the first quarter the share of credit card balances and accounts XX XX and 90-days past due declined on an annual basis for the first time since Q4 2021"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1943419985759461473) 2025-07-10 21:20:06 UTC 423.9K followers, 49.4K engagements "Trump advisers ramped up a campaign against the Fed chair by alleging he either lied to Congress about the Feds HQ renovation or mismanaged it potentially laying a new scaffolding to oust him. The complaints open an additional line of attack as part of a push for lower rates"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1943814882803298706) 2025-07-11 23:29:17 UTC 424K followers, 111.1K engagements "June CPI is expected to show core prices rose XXXX% which would bring the 12-month increase to XXX% (from XXX% in May). Headline prices are expected to have risen XXXX% which would lift the 12-month measure to XXX% from XXX% in May"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1944842856734318778) 2025-07-14 19:34:05 UTC 424K followers, 284.5K engagements "Personal income fell XXX% in May and disposable personal income fell XXX% largely reflecting a plunge in Social Security payments (which were boosted due to large retroactive payments earlier this year). Incomes from wages and salaries for private-sector workers rose 0.4%"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1938588847069168053) 2025-06-27 13:22:53 UTC 424K followers, 63.9K engagements "Piper Sandler's Andy Laperriere: "It's hard to know when this will matter to financial markets but the politicization of the Fed we are witnessing is a monumental development." "While we would not argue the Fed has been pure as the driven snow for the past XX years (and certainly made plenty of mistakes) the turn we are witnessing is a consequential break.""  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945814777986777163) 2025-07-17 11:56:09 UTC 424K followers, 65.6K engagements "Waller arrives at this out-of-consensus position (relative to his colleagues) because he thinks the Fed should look through tariffs and move rates closer to neutral. We should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1945976976063295977) 2025-07-17 22:40:40 UTC 424K followers, 61.3K engagements "These two charts illustrate the key tension that tariffs will create more inflation risk alongside greater downside risk to consumer spending (which is the engine for the U.S. economy). If you are worried more about inflation you would look at the rise in durable goods prices since the start of the year and see that excluding the 2021-23 post-pandemic period it is the largest rise in goods prices since the "great moderation" of the 1990s at +2.8%. (h/t @ernietedeschi) This data is through May and retailers have Walmart have suggested they weren't going to begin to raise prices until June. If"  [@NickTimiraos](/creator/x/NickTimiraos) on [X](/post/tweet/1938603682406244358) 2025-06-27 14:21:50 UTC 423.8K followers, 131.7K engagements
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@NickTimiraos Nick Timiraos
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faced criticism from President Trump and others over the Fed's interest rate policy, with Trump expressing frustration over the Fed's "total and complete moron" and implying he may accelerate the announcement of a new Fed chair. Powell testified before Congress, emphasizing that the Fed is not yet ready to look through tariff-driven price increases and that inflation risks remain. Economists and Fed officials are debating the potential for interest rate cuts, with some arguing that recent improvements in inflation data could warrant a cut, while others see risks from tariffs and a strong labor market.
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Social category influence finance #979 stocks XXXX% countries XXXX%
Social topic influence fed #101, inflation #311, fed chair #47, powell #247, tariffs #205, bessent #6, federal reserve #55, treasury secretary #30, jerome powell 3.41%, fomc #1
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @rev_cap @joperec @dannydayan5 @dadbodwho @howardaulsbrook @jacksonleeburn1 @gufinpolicy @convertbond @jeffzorzmy @beijingbeefback @technicaltrendf @catholicgop2016 @pgrills24 @iml84myd8s @schwartzbwsj @loganmohtashami @flyalex666 @yahoofinance @texasrunnerdfw @jasonpiepmeier
Top assets mentioned Goldman Sachs (GS)
Top Social Posts #
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"On making Bessent his Fed chair Trump says the Treasury secretary "is an option" but he's not the top option "because I like the job he's doing." "I do like the job he's done. So in that sense probably it's not that much of an option.""
@NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-16 01:34:37 UTC 424K followers, 93K engagements
"It's still a slow-to-hire slow-to-fire labor market. Employers added 147000 jobs in June. Total private sector hiring was 74000. The unemployment rate fell to XXX% Job growth for April and May was revised up by 16000 jobs on net" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-03 12:33:38 UTC 424K followers, 174.4K engagements
"Removing Powell as Fed chair could lead to a messy drawn-out standoff. The Fed owns its buildings and controls its security. If Trump attempts removal Powell could try to stay until the courts uphold it or the Senate confirms a replacement" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 01:27:33 UTC 424K followers, 92K engagements
"Penns Peter Conti-Brown: We are in a high-stakes moment in the history of the Federal Reserve. It seems clear to me that the Trump administration using various mechanisms has now cooked up a post-hoc explanation for Powells removal" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-13 12:01:25 UTC 424K followers, 232.7K engagements
"Fed governor Chris Waller: The Fed can lower rates because the short-term rate is still "pretty restrictive." He thinks rates are XXX pp above a long-run steady state neutral. "Were just too tight." "I'm kind of in the minority on this." "Ive tried to lay out in economic terms why we could to this. Its not political."" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-10 18:07:56 UTC 424K followers, 209.6K engagements
"Senate Majority Leader John Thune said markets want an independent Federal Reserve that isn't subject to political whims and suggested firing Powell could be damaging to financial markets. From a Wednesday interview on Fox: BAIER: President Trump asked House Republicans on Tuesday during a meeting in the Oval whether he should fire the Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell. They expressed approval. So as the head of the Senate Republicans do you think the President should fire the Fed chair What do you think that would do THUNE: Well I think that ultimately the president probably will make that" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 11:18:27 UTC 424K followers, 51.1K engagements
"The June jobs report does little to reconcile a hazy outlook for Fed cuts besides very likely torpedoing whatever chance there was of a July cut particularly if stocks continue to push to new highs. If you thought the labor market was gently cooling and were worried about a non-linear rise in unemployment you'll be able to point to the narrow breadth of hiring to sustain this argument. If you thought the labor market was in fundamentally decent shape and bound to hit choppy air amid the April policy chaos on tariffs plus more muscular efforts to deport workers here illegally (which hits" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-03 14:23:04 UTC 424K followers, 67.7K engagements
"Seasonally adjusted core goods inflation was +0.20% in June the firmest reading since February. Shelter was a mild +0.18% the softest since early 2021. Core services ex housing was +0.21%" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-15 20:40:38 UTC 424K followers, 48.8K engagements
"Meanwhile personal consumption appears to be slowing though the large decline (-0.3%) for May is partly (largely) payback for the increase in auto sales to get ahead of the tariffs. Discretionary services spending not as poor but not great" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-06-27 13:41:45 UTC 424K followers, 28.6K engagements
"The manufacturing ISM printed at XXXX% in January. U.S. manufacturing activity expanded in January after XX consecutive months of contraction" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-02-03 15:05:32 UTC 424K followers, 74.1K engagements
"When people ask me about various internet rumormongering my first instinct is to ignore it in the same way the TV cameras don't show the streaker running on the field at Yankee Stadium. But for people who really do wonder about whether the Fed chair would do the opposite of what he keeps saying he will do (which is to serve out his term as chair now just XX months to go) I reflect on how Powell answered the question about getting in the life raft six years ago. I included that answer in my book because it doesn't get any more absolute: I will never ever ever leave this job voluntarily until" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-12 00:39:25 UTC 424K followers, 406.4K engagements
"It's a Captain Obvious point but: this is setting up to be the most unusual Fed chair succession in over a generation. The first since Volcker succeeded Bill Miller in which the incoming chair promises to take the Fed in a very different direction from his or her predecessor" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 14:36:21 UTC 424K followers, 65.8K engagements
"There could be a choose-your-own narrative quality to today's CPI report. Core prices rose XXXX% which just happens to be the median MoM rise in core prices over the previous XX months (meaning six months were above and six months were below). This is ever so slightly on the soft side of what was expected by some forecasters but the bottom line is that most of those forecasters expect more meaningful tariff effects in July and August . and goods prices were firmer in June. If you think the worst of the tariff-driven price hikes is still ahead then this report doesn't change your underlying" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-15 13:11:28 UTC 424K followers, 223.1K engagements
"Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked down in the New York Fed's survey for June. Shorter- and longer-term inflation expectations in this survey are back to where they were before the tariff "bump" in the spring" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-08 15:01:00 UTC 424K followers, 71.4K engagements
"The Fed minutes tell us something we already knew: Officials are divided into three groups 1) Cut this year but not July (the largest group) 2) No cuts this year 3) Cut as soon as the next meeting (which the minutes suggest is only a "couple" ie Waller and Bowman)" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-09 18:08:41 UTC 424K followers, 268.5K engagements
"Hassett to ABC News on whether Trump uses the Fed building expenses as a pretext to get what he wants which is a new Fed chair. HASSETT: "I think that whether the president decides to push down that road or not is going to depend a lot on the answers that we get to the questions that Russ Vought sent to the Fed." "The bottom line is that there's a key statutory problem. In 1913 when we founded the Fed the U.S. was under a gold standard. So it was never envisioned never envisioned by the people that voted for the construction of the Fed that we currently see that the Fed could print money and" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-13 16:56:20 UTC 424K followers, 354K engagements
"Trump says he thinks the Fed should set interest rates at 1%. He also says he won't consider anyone for Fed chair who supports holding rates where they are. "Whoever is in there will lower rates." On Powell's successor: "I'm going to put somebody that wants to cut rates."" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-06-27 21:15:22 UTC 423.8K followers, 773.3K engagements
"If people really want to crawl down the rabbit hole of what the Federal Reserve is allowed to do with its finances for the purposes of its buildings (how else does one spend a weekend in Washington these days) they'll find some fairly complete answers in the Federal Reserve Act including as it was amended in December 2000 when Congress explicitly provided for the Fed to expand. (emphasis is mine) "The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System shall have power to levy semiannually upon the Federal reserve banks in proportion to their capital stock and surplus an assessment sufficient to" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-13 17:02:25 UTC 424K followers, 57.3K engagements
"(Breakeven job growth refers to the number of monthly payroll gains needed on average to hold the unemployment rate steady. If these estimates are right the economy could add very few jobs for the rest of the year without a meaningful rise in the unemployment rate). This would be in some ways the inverse of 2023-24 where the unemployment rate edged up during a period of above-expectations job growth" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-02 14:19:26 UTC 424K followers, 31.7K engagements
"Join us here for a conversation on the economy and markets:" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-15 18:00:00 UTC 424K followers, 51.1K engagements
"But then there's this: "Several participants commented that the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be far above its neutral level." Translation: Outside of a serious slowdown they're not envisioning a lot more reductions even if they do resume cuts" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-09 18:10:19 UTC 423.8K followers, 47K engagements
"The Fed added to FAQs on its building project on Sunday that provide lots of context including that the Fed's collaboration with the NCPCthe body that now includes three White House advisers installed by Trump last weekwas voluntary and doesn't extend to any financial oversight of the project: "The Board generally is not subject to direction from the NCPC on its building projects." This explanation follows a separate lengthy answer about who does oversee the Fed (their answer: Congress and also an IG; but not the OMB nor the NCPC)" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-14 02:14:53 UTC 424K followers, 60K engagements
"Powell: If not for the expectations of higher inflation this year from tariffs "we would have continued cutting."" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-06-24 14:51:48 UTC 424K followers, 560.9K engagements
"(Full quote: "If you just look at the basic data and don't look at the forecast you would say that we would've continued cutting. The difference of course is at this time all forecasters are expecting pretty soon that some significant inflation will show up from tariffs. And we can't just ignore that.")" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-06-24 14:57:39 UTC 424K followers, 67.3K engagements
"Bessent: There are good candidates on the Fed board for Fed chair so I dont find this public pressuring of the Fed disruptive at all" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-06 14:42:43 UTC 423.9K followers, 129.3K engagements
"Kevin Hassett one of Trumps closest economic advisers is emerging as a serious contender to be the next Fed chair. Hassetts rise threatens the other Kevinformer Fed governor Kevin Warshwho has angled for the position ever since Trump passed him over for it eight years ago" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-09 01:17:28 UTC 424K followers, 206.5K engagements
"Hassett: Theres absolutely no excuse other than partisanship for the Fed not to cut rates" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-06-25 19:10:23 UTC 424K followers, 40K engagements
"Trump's latest Fed attack is playing out in the court of public opinionnot a court of law. An institution that depends on credibility is defending spending choices on buildings issues with greater salience than the arcane details of rate policy" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 09:30:01 UTC 424K followers, 42.1K engagements
"It's a holiday week so insert all requisite caveats about leaning on one week of data etc. But jobless claims last week don't point to any signs of an imminent increase in layoffs while continuing claims continue to suggest it is taking folks a bit longer to find new jobs" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-10 20:58:18 UTC 424K followers, 35.9K engagements
"PSA: Join me at X p.m. ET on Tuesday for this webinar on the economy and markets with Lael Brainard and Joe Amato at @GUFinPolicy Register here:" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-14 20:00:00 UTC 424K followers, 88.6K engagements
"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the Fed should be able to cut rates by September based on their own criteria for lowering rates. INGRAHAM: Do you think Powell will lower rates by the fall as it looks like Goldman Sachs is even beginning to recommend from their latest recommendations N.B.: Goldman was predicting what the Fed was most likely to do based on Goldman's economic forecast and evaluation of the Fed's reaction function to said forecast BESSENT: Look I think if the criteria is that tariffs were not inflationary if they're going to follow that criteria I think that they could do" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-03 01:36:16 UTC 424K followers, 151.6K engagements
"JPM economists on the OBBB: The deficit should rise close to a percentage point between FY25 and FY26 to over X% of GDP and stay wide thereafter. The bill also implies nearly no fiscal thrust next fiscal year once tariff revenue is factored in and we adjust for some CBO accounting conventions" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-03 11:25:59 UTC 423.8K followers, 120K engagements
"Yellen: I don't talk to Secretary Bessent. He has undone everything I worked on at Treasury. Bessent: "I couldn't even tell you what Secretary Yellen's China policy was aside from consuming beer and mushrooms." via @bobdavis187" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-18 18:17:35 UTC 424K followers, 138.4K engagements
"CPI is close to consensus. Not as mild as May. Core prices rose XXXX% in June. 12-month inflation was XXX% Headline prices rose 0.29%. 12-month inflation was 2.6%" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-15 12:37:06 UTC 424K followers, 317.2K engagements
"Waller removes any doubt: He'll vote for a July cut. The opening line of the speech gets to the point: My purpose this evening is to explain why I believe that the FOMC should reduce our policy rate by XX basis points at our next meeting" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 22:30:45 UTC 424K followers, 414.3K engagements
"Kevin Warsh to Larry Kudlow on FBN: -"You can have materially lower interest rates" if the Fed would shrink a couple trillion dollars off the balance sheet. -"We're in a housing recession right now." -Financial market conditions are loose. -"Tariffs are not inflationary."" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-08 00:44:02 UTC 424K followers, 116.8K engagements
"Kevin Warsh is asked by @BeckyQuick if the next Fed chair is going to be indepedent. Warsh: "In a word yes. Ive strongly believed for XX years and history tells us that the independent operations in the conduct of monetary policy is essential."" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 12:11:24 UTC 424K followers, 60.1K engagements
"President Trump denied that he was planning to attempt to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell after polling GOP lawmakers during a closed-door meeting about whether he should oust him. I dont rule out anything but I think its highly unlikely."" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-16 16:26:39 UTC 424K followers, 67.7K engagements
"Austan Goolsbee says tariff re-escalation would complicate decisions around cuts: "The more we keep adding things to the mix that make it hard to figure out Are prices going to be rising or not The more its just throwing more dirt back in the air."" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-11 19:14:21 UTC 424K followers, 61.5K engagements
"OMB Director Vought takes up the Fed building renovation project line of questions initiated by the Senate Banking Committee Chair Sen. Tim Scott at the recent policy hearing" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-10 18:26:41 UTC 424K followers, 86.6K engagements
"No pickup in seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment benefits last week. Continuing claims continue to point to a slightly less tight labor market compared to a year ago" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 12:34:39 UTC 424K followers, 39.3K engagements
"Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan: "My base case is that we'll need to keep interest rates modestly restrictive for some time" But "it's also possible that some combination of softer inflation and a weakening labor market will call for lower rates fairly soon."" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-15 23:50:00 UTC 424K followers, 71.2K engagements
"The next few months of inflation data will offer a key test of competing theories about whether tariffs will prove inflationary and animate potential Fed divisions over how to manage any costs if forecasts are wrongin either direction" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-10 01:32:17 UTC 424K followers, 94.8K engagements
"ADP reports private payrolls lost 33000 jobs in June. May was revised down to a gain of 29000 from an initially reported gain of 37000. Heading into the teeth of the post-Liberation Day hard data" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-02 12:30:39 UTC 424K followers, 261.4K engagements
"From the same survey: Conventional ARMs composed over XX% of large bank first-mortgage originations compared to only XXX% in Q1 2021" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-10 21:21:26 UTC 423.8K followers, 30.6K engagements
"Trump unloads again on Powell (via Truth Social): I dont know why the Board doesnt override this Total and Complete Moron Maybe just maybe Ill have to change my mind about firing him But regardless his Term ends shortly I fully understand that my strong criticism of him makes it more difficult for him to do what he should be doing lowering Rates" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-06-20 22:17:30 UTC 423.9K followers, 355.1K engagements
"Trump: "These tariffs may be modified upward or downward depending on our relationship with your country."" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-07 16:32:02 UTC 424K followers, 457K engagements
"Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin asked a business exec: Are you raising prices because of tariff costs or just using 'tariff noise' as cover "It's both" the exec admitted. "And I feel a little guilty saying that." An economic detective hits the road:" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-05 12:34:51 UTC 424K followers, 188.4K engagements
"At a meeting with investors last month Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent lamented Fed Chair Jay Powells caution on rates after having misjudged inflation as transitory in 2021. Attendees said Bessent compared the Fed chair to an old man who having hurt himself after a bad fall was now more likely to fall again because he is always looking down at his feet when he takes a step" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-09 15:05:04 UTC 424K followers, 148.3K engagements
"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who last year floated the idea of naming a "shadow" Fed chair to undercut Jay Powell said the idea of Powell remaining on the Fed board after his term as governor would be "very confusing for the market."" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-15 13:25:54 UTC 424K followers, 109.5K engagements
"Alternate inflation measures (median and trimmed-mean) CPI showed more price pressures. The Cleveland Fed's XX% trimmed mean inflation gauge (which strips out the items with the largest price changes on the high and low side) was the second highest since early 2024" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-15 20:52:53 UTC 424K followers, 25.6K engagements
"Philly Fed: In the first quarter the share of credit card balances and accounts XX XX and 90-days past due declined on an annual basis for the first time since Q4 2021" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-10 21:20:06 UTC 423.9K followers, 49.4K engagements
"Trump advisers ramped up a campaign against the Fed chair by alleging he either lied to Congress about the Feds HQ renovation or mismanaged it potentially laying a new scaffolding to oust him. The complaints open an additional line of attack as part of a push for lower rates" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-11 23:29:17 UTC 424K followers, 111.1K engagements
"June CPI is expected to show core prices rose XXXX% which would bring the 12-month increase to XXX% (from XXX% in May). Headline prices are expected to have risen XXXX% which would lift the 12-month measure to XXX% from XXX% in May" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-14 19:34:05 UTC 424K followers, 284.5K engagements
"Personal income fell XXX% in May and disposable personal income fell XXX% largely reflecting a plunge in Social Security payments (which were boosted due to large retroactive payments earlier this year). Incomes from wages and salaries for private-sector workers rose 0.4%" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-06-27 13:22:53 UTC 424K followers, 63.9K engagements
"Piper Sandler's Andy Laperriere: "It's hard to know when this will matter to financial markets but the politicization of the Fed we are witnessing is a monumental development." "While we would not argue the Fed has been pure as the driven snow for the past XX years (and certainly made plenty of mistakes) the turn we are witnessing is a consequential break."" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 11:56:09 UTC 424K followers, 65.6K engagements
"Waller arrives at this out-of-consensus position (relative to his colleagues) because he thinks the Fed should look through tariffs and move rates closer to neutral. We should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-07-17 22:40:40 UTC 424K followers, 61.3K engagements
"These two charts illustrate the key tension that tariffs will create more inflation risk alongside greater downside risk to consumer spending (which is the engine for the U.S. economy). If you are worried more about inflation you would look at the rise in durable goods prices since the start of the year and see that excluding the 2021-23 post-pandemic period it is the largest rise in goods prices since the "great moderation" of the 1990s at +2.8%. (h/t @ernietedeschi) This data is through May and retailers have Walmart have suggested they weren't going to begin to raise prices until June. If" @NickTimiraos on X 2025-06-27 14:21:50 UTC 423.8K followers, 131.7K engagements