Dark | Light
# ![@NextArcResearch Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1993104509607010304.png) @NextArcResearch Neil Smith

Neil Smith posts on X about ai, feb, $spir, $aur the most. They currently have [--] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1993104509607010304/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1993104509607010304/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] -52%
- [--] Month [-----] +75%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1993104509607010304/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1993104509607010304/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] +35%
- [--] Month [--] +120%

### Followers: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1993104509607010304/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1993104509607010304/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -4.40%
- [--] Month [--] +22%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1993104509607010304/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1993104509607010304/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [finance](/list/finance)  [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 

**Social topic influence**
[ai](/topic/ai), [feb](/topic/feb), [$spir](/topic/$spir), [$aur](/topic/$aur), [strong](/topic/strong), [in the](/topic/in-the), [$crm](/topic/$crm), [the next](/topic/the-next), [scale](/topic/scale), [$ntla](/topic/$ntla)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@nuscalepower](/creator/undefined) [@aerovironment](/creator/undefined) [@cerenceinc](/creator/undefined) [@fabrinetfn](/creator/undefined) [@sitimecorp](/creator/undefined) [@latticesemi](/creator/undefined) [@aurorainno](/creator/undefined) [@c3ai](/creator/undefined) [@servicenow](/creator/undefined) [@spireglobal](/creator/undefined) [@corescientifics](/creator/undefined) [@netapp](/creator/undefined) [@qciquantum](/creator/undefined) [@tuhurabio](/creator/undefined) [@ferc](/creator/undefined) [@jabil](/creator/undefined) [@meta](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Auroracoin (AUR)](/topic/$aur) [Salesforce Inc (CRM)](/topic/$crm) [Intellia Therapeutics, Inc (NTLA)](/topic/$ntla) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [OpenServ (SERV)](/topic/$serv) [Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX)](/topic/$rxrx) [Zscaler Inc (ZS)](/topic/$zs) [Mario Coin (COIN)](/topic/$coin) [Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW)](/topic/$panw) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY)](/topic/$joby) [NetApp Inc. (NTAP)](/topic/$ntap) [Jabil, Inc. (JBL)](/topic/$jbl) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)](/topic/coinbase) [Strategy (MSTR)](/topic/$mstr) [Fabrinet (FN)](/topic/$fn) [NuScale Power Corporation (SMR)](/topic/$smr) [Equinix Inc (EQIX)](/topic/$eqix) [Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR)](/topic/$achr) [Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT)](/topic/quantum-computing-inc) [Muhdo Hub (DNA)](/topic/$dna) [TALEN ENERGY CORP  (DE) (TLN)](/topic/$tln) [Oklo Inc. (OKLO)](/topic/$oklo) [SoundHound AI, Inc. Class A Common Stock (SOUN)](/topic/$soun) [FIVE9, INC. (FIVN)](/topic/$fivn) [Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (HPE)](/topic/$hpe) [Ethereum (ETH)](/topic/$eth) [Ambarella, Inc. Ordinary Shares (AMBA)](/topic/$amba) [Natera, Inc. Common Stock (NTRA)](/topic/$ntra) [D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS)](/topic/$qbts) [Coherent Inc (COHR)](/topic/$cohr) [Nano-X Imaging Ltd. (NNOX)](/topic/$nnox) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY)](/topic/$bksy) [Coldstack (CLS)](/topic/$cls)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"AI risk is splitting. Infra names like SERV FLNC & APLD now look priced for strong execution while HURA & MATIC trade at distressed levels that already embed failure risk. The question is where you want your optionality. More in the weekly update AI risk is starting to bifurcate. In our latest work we see a clear split: some AI infrastructure names now trade as if success is the default while underowned biotech and crypto assets are priced more like binary options on science or protocol design. On the infrastructure side Serve Robotics Fluence Energy and Applied Digital have all rerated into"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/1999785442120532043)  2025-12-13T10:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"#TheLastEconomy Watch stays mixed (medium confidence): computepower co-planning is accelerating and enterprise agent stacks are scalingbut construction/capex bottlenecks and tighter data/IP/provenance governance add real friction. Our read is mixed medium confidence. The durable signal is not AI is accelerating or AI is stalling. Its that real deployment is continuing while constraints are shifting from chips toward power construction capital discipline and governance. Flywheels: Computepower co-planning is becoming explicit. Utilities and cloud operators are pairing new data-center campuses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2000241875538866273)  2025-12-14T16:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"New coverage: ASML as a compute-scaling bottleneck. AI demand ultimately has to clear wafer + tooling capacity. Rising lithography intensity (EUV today High-NA next) can expand value per fab while services/software deepen recurring mix. Geopolitics remains the swing factor. More in the weekly update --- Become a member on Patreon to access detailed thoughtful analysis on 110+ AI Era companies beyond the Mag [--]. --- New coverage: ASML as the compute bottleneck. In our framework AI demand ultimately has to clear real-world industrial constraints: wafers tools power fabs and qualified people."  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2000664661805383907)  2025-12-15T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"New coverage: BWX Technologies. In nuclear supply chains the moat is qualification + capacitynot ideas. Our view: upside depends on converting multi-year defense/special-materials demand into repeatable delivery (fuels/isotopes) with execution as the bar. More in the weekly update --- Become a member on Patreon to access detailed thoughtful analysis on 110+ AI Era companies beyond the Mag [--]. --- New coverage in our universe: BWX Technologies (BWXT) and nuclear-qualified scarcity. In nuclear supply chains advantage is rarely about the idea. Its about who can operate under extreme safety and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2000725060475314368)  2025-12-16T00:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"AeroVironment: record bookings + a $874M 5-year FMS contract vehicle strengthen the autonomy + counter-drone path. But the long-run edge likely comes down to manufacturing scale cash conversion and services attach as BlueHalo integration settles. More in the weekly update AeroVironments (@aerovironment $AVAV) latest setup is a good reminder that defense autonomy stories are often won (or lost) in the unglamorous layer: manufacturing scale integration and cash conversion. The company reported record revenue and very strong bookings then added a new catalyst for international pull-through: a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2001027049583251559)  2025-12-16T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Cerence (@CerenceInc $CRNC) is in 525M+ carsbut the key question is who owns the in-cabin assistant UI. If OEMs/OS stacks capture the interface + data suppliers can see thinner take rates even as AI usage rises. More in the weekly update The key fight in in-car voice AI isnt who has the best model. Its who owns the interface. Cerence sits unusually deep in the automotive stack. In its FY2025 filings the company reports its technology has shipped in 525M+ automobiles to date and it estimates 52% of all cars shipped in FY2025 included Cerence technologies. It also reported an estimated"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2002114212647272925)  2025-12-19T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"AI capex touches everythingbut value capture doesnt. $FN volume leverage; $SITM can be bundled; $LSCC can be integrated. Take-or-pay capacity vs standards pricing vs software attach More in the weekly update --- AI spending touches everythingbut the bottleneck is still who captures the economics. In this weeks low signal / low upside quadrant notes three AI-adjacent semiconductor names illustrate a common investor mistake: confusing exposure to AI capex with durable pricing power and switching costs. Fabrinet $FN @FabrinetFN is the clean pass-through case: AI networking demand can lift"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2003201377195938108)  2025-12-22T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Obvious leaders tight expectations: $MSFT must prove Copilot ROI $AMZN must convert peak capex to FCF $ASML must ship HighNA on customer timelinesor margins/throughput slip. More in weekly update --- These leaders look structurally advantagedbut the market already expects them to execute quarter after quarter. When expectations are saturated small misses in margins throughput or timelines can matter more than big narratives. In our priced structural leaders bucket three archetypes stand out: Microsoft (platform lock-in) Amazon (scale + operating leverage) and ASML (manufacturing bottleneck)."  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2003261774221492665)  2025-12-23T00:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Gates before scale: $SMR needs PPAs/FID before dilution $AUR needs driverless lane expansion without a policy/safety reset $AI needs FedRAMPsubs before bundling. Gates clear or stall More --- These are option-like equities where the long-term story can be directionally right but the stock outcome still hinges on a few gates that may or may not open on schedule. This weeks setup is a clean example across three different gate types: 1) NuScale Power $SMR @NuScale_Power : the financing-and-credibility gate. After the Dec [--] [----] approval to raise authorized Class A shares to 662M dilution optics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2003503367075872933)  2025-12-23T16:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"AI-era demand can be obvious while proof stays gated: power + interconnection workflow bundling and FAA timelines. Does power clarity improve for $EQIX do control points hold for $NOW vs bundling and does certification/reliability stay on track for $ACHR More in the weekly update $EQIX $NOW $ACHR @ServiceNow --- AI infrastructure demand looks obviousyet some companies stay under-believed because the binding constraint isnt demand. Its whether proof arrives fast enough in the face of power regulation platform bundling or aviation-grade certification timelines. Three examples from this weeks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2003533566127284716)  2025-12-23T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"New coverage - $SPIR: $200M+ contracted obligationscan it become recurring highSLA subscriptions with improving margins or stay milestonelumpy and cap operating leverage More in the weekly update --- @SpireGlobal has a credible space-data asset and $200M+ in remaining performance obligations but the open question is whether that demand becomes recurring high-SLA subscriptionsor stays milestone-lumpy and hard to scale. Spire Global operates a low-Earth-orbit satellite fleet that collects RF-derived data and sells weather/climate aviation and RF intelligence products plus space services. In"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2003864747046002797)  2025-12-24T16:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"New coverage - $CORZ has AI-ready powered shellsbut grid interconnection timelines and a concentrated customer book can still be the constraint. Does it scale into durable colocation cash flows or stay a single-counterparty transition story More --- @Core_Scientific's assets look like AI-ready shellsbut its still uncertain whether its power pipeline and customer diversification can scale fast enough to make AI power-and-space landlord more than a single-counterparty transition story. The reason this is on our radar now: AI compute expansion is increasingly power-and-site led. Permitted"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2003896456348848612)  2025-12-24T18:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"New coverage - $NTAP sits on enterprise data trustbut can it turn that into an AI data-pipeline layer before hyperscaler bundling commoditizes storage More --- @NetApp has installed-base trust in enterprise data - but its not obvious it will be rewarded for it. The tension: as hyperscalers keep bundling storage and data services NetApp could stay categorized (and priced) as legacy storage even if AI-era workloads increase demand for better data movement governance and resilience. Why its on our radar now: AI workloads often shift the practical constraint from raw compute to the data layer -"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2003927158503493654)  2025-12-24T20:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Highlight - $QUBT is drifting from quantum demo to qualification test. The $110M allcash LSI deal (363 sale; expected end Jan 26) raises the bar: hyperscalergrade reliability + repeat ordersor still lumpy R&D --- Quantum photonics is moving from lab narratives to manufacturing narrativesbut qualification and repeatability (more than demos) will decide who captures durable value. Quantum Computing Inc. @QciQuantum signed an agreement (8-K) to acquire Luminar Semiconductor (LSI) for $110M all-cash subject to a bankruptcy-court Section [---] sale process with approval expected by the end of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2004590277676183870)  2025-12-26T16:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Highlight $HURA - A pivotal Phase [--] can be nonlinear upside but Tuhuras near-term variable is capital structure: Dec [--] registered direct deal (3 tranches + warrants); Dec [--] 8K on proceeds/bridge repayment. Runwayor financing spiral --- A SPA-backed Phase [--] trial can create nonlinear optionalitybut for microcap biotech the financing path can dominate per-share outcomes long before the clinical readout. Thats the tension in TuHURA Biosciences @TuhuraBio $HURA right now: the market can debate efficacy all day but if capital arrives in need mode (tranches warrants ATM pressure) the equity math"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2004620980388237748)  2025-12-26T18:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Highlight $SMR - NuScale Power demand talk is rising but financeability is the real product. Dec [--] 8K: authorized Class A shares to 662M. Fork: binding PPA + first FID soonor dilution optics snowball --- @NuScale_Power demand narratives are getting louder but the market is increasingly focused on a different question: are these projects financeable without repeated equity issuance In small modular reactors bankability can matter more than reactor physics. What changed this week: on Dec [--] NuScale disclosed via an 8-K that shareholders approved increasing authorized Class A shares to 662M."  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2004650675523793399)  2025-12-26T20:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Loser - Ginko Bioworks $DNA platform story vs a slower [----] ramp - our forecast fell this week. Open question: monetization ceiling or timing reset Confidence shifts on standardized auditable platform deals + better margins/cash control. --- Our forecast for Ginko Bioworks $DNA moved lower after we made the [----] ramp more conservativebut the core question isnt settled: is this a durable ceiling on platform monetization or a timing reset that later re-accelerates In this weeks update $DNA dropped from rank [--] to [--] in our coverage universe. The driver isnt sentiment; its uncertainty in the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2004952918940664028)  2025-12-27T16:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Weekly Update - AI demand is rising but power is the limiter: PJMs 2027/28 capacity auction hit the cap and $TLN cleared 8.7GW; $JBL still raised FY26 outlook. Investable grid rules - or political caps that slow deployment More --- AI demand signals keep strengtheningbut the gating function is moving from build more compute to power it permit it and run it reliably. The uncomfortable part: the more real the buildout gets the more it collides with grid governance. This weeks clearest datapoint was PJMs 2027/2028 capacity auction clearing at the cap ($333.44/MW-day). Talen Energy disclosed 8745"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2005315305720127900)  2025-12-28T16:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"AI demand pricing power: $AAOI fell in our weekly ranks; $VICR is near its 52w high; $NTAP AI story leans on AWS integration. Repeat multi-customer pullor hyperscalers internalize --- AI spending can surge and a supplier can still lose leverage. Thats the under-discussed tension behind a lot of AI plays: being adjacent to the buildout doesnt automatically mean durable value capture when hyperscalers can dual-source internalize or standardize you into a lower-margin lane. In our 2025-12-27 weekly update we placed three companies in a low-signal / low-upside bucketcases where the AI narrative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2005677693828767807)  2025-12-29T16:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"These [--] names read like call optionsbut each has near-dated gates. $OKLO: PPAs/licensing (ATM overhang). $RGTI: roadmap paid uptime. $SOUN: voice UI transactions. Do utilization + financing arrive in time More in the weekly update --- The tension in a lot of AI-era upside trades isnt whether the technology worksits whether proof points arrive fast enough to survive the financing and credibility clock. This week were framing three names as different kinds of option value: the upside can be meaningful if discrete gates clear but the downside isnt naturally contained if those gates slip. Oklo is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2005708019804545396)  2025-12-29T18:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Consensus AI winners $NVDA $TSM $CEG arent short on narrativetheyre short on room for execution misses. Keep printing (mix/yields/contracts) or a digestion/policy shock makes them trade cyclical. These are already consensus AI winners. The tension is that the story is widely understoodso the next phase is mainly about whether execution stays flawless across supply policy and monetization. Three priced leader archetypes make that concrete: 1) Nvidia the scale + margin machine. Reuters reported on Dec [--] [----] that Nvidia agreed to a non-exclusive license for Groq technology and to hire Groqs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2006040083527303227)  2025-12-30T16:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Structure belief: $SPIR (debtfree $200M+ RPO SHIELD IDIQ); $IREN (scarce power + multiyear $MSFT deal); $DOT (Asset Hub; Revive Jan [--] 26). So . funded $ + repeatable KPIs or delays/weak demand --- The hardest stories to price arent no demand storiestheyre real structure unclear delivery stories. The market can see the ingredients but belief lags because timing is uncertain optics are messy and execution risk is non-linear. This week were tracking three different versions of that belief gap: 1) Spire Global a credibility gap. The structure is tangible: a debt-free balance sheet $200M+ in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2006070280322703765)  2025-12-30T18:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Highlight - PJM capacity hit the cap ($333.44/MW-day)a tailwind for $TLN but also a flashing rule-change risk. Hinges on whether TLN locks long-term large-load deals before PJM/FERC reforms compress forward pricing. See --- PJMs latest capacity auction hit the price capgreat for generators like Talen Energy but it also raises the odds that the rules become the real ceiling. One hard number matters here: PJMs 2027/2028 capacity auction cleared at the cap ($333.44 per MW-day). Talen disclosed [----] MW cleared. Thats the market saying firm power is scarce in the most AI-constrained U.S. gridnot a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2006432671237652811)  2025-12-31T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Power-rich sites are scarcebut $WULF still has to prove it can deliver AI/HPC on time. Steady bankable utilization vs commissioning slips that force repricing/raises. See --- Power-rich data-center campuses are becoming scarce assetsbut its still unclear whether $WULF can turn that scarcity into long-duration AI/HPC cash flows before leverage and delivery risk become the whole story. This matters because AI scaling is increasingly constrained by power interconnection and on-time commissioningnot just by GPUs. This weeks macro signal reinforced that: hyperscalers are moving closer to energy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2008608040065638765)  2026-01-06T18:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Strong structure lagging belief: $CRM mispricing signal is [----] but Agentforce still needs metered consumption; $RXRX CEO transition took effect Jan [--] 2026; $AVAX still has to prove durable fee capture. Do fees/usage/readouts show up - or stay narrative More --- Three AI-era infrastructure stories look real on structure but belief is still waiting on a measurable proof point. This weeks under-discussed detail is that belief tends to change only when a CFO can point to a repeatable line item - not when adoption anecdotes get louder. This week our coverage universe surfaced three names in"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2009694159838556494)  2026-01-09T18:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Edge AI can look real fast - but it only compounds if backlog converts on procurement timelines. This week: Airship AI $AISP improved in our ranks as M.I.N.D. trend strengthened (+0.046/wk). Does Q4/early-26 convert cleanly or stay stop-start with funding strain More --- Edge AI vendors can prove capability fast. The harder part is turning procurement into repeatable shipments and recognized revenue without funding stress. This week Airship AI Holdings $AISP moved up in our coverage rankings (12 8) as its structural trend improved (mind_log_ewma_slope_w5 = +0.0463/week). Why it matters: the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2009724359296827859)  2026-01-09T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"AI demand can roar while vendors get weaker. This week we flagged rising customer/supplier concentration risk in $HPE $CRDO $NTAP $FIVN $SOUN; Reuters also called an unprecedented HBM crunch with prices 2x since early [----]. Diversification in [--] qtrs or tighter allocation More --- AI spending can be booming while individual vendors get more fragile if one customer distributor OEM or silicon supplier changes the terms. In the Jan [--] [----] weekly update concentration risk rose across Five9 SoundHound Credo NetApp and Hewlett Packard Enterprise . The mechanism is simple: if a quarters outcome"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2010418937201406003)  2026-01-11T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Timing is the debate for $TSLA: funding autonomy + energy while EV margins are cyclical. Exhibit: Q425 deliveries 418227; [----] energy storage deployments [----] GWh. Do energy/software ramps shrink the gap - or does EV pressure hit first --- Tesla has to fund autonomy and energy scale while EV margins are cyclical - and the timeline gap can force a re-pricing before new profit pools arrive. On Jan [--] [----] Tesla reported Q4 [----] deliveries of [------] and [----] energy storage deployments of [----] GWh. Why this matters: those two numbers describe two different clocks investors are trying to reconcile."  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2010781323686821948)  2026-01-12T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Contracted AI demand is one thing - delivered megawatts is another. This week: D.A. Davidson moved CoreWeave $CRWV to Neutral (early Jan 2026) but still flagged ROIC vs cost of capital. Does commissioning/utilization hold before hyperscalers squeeze pricing --- CoreWeave is trying to turn contracted AI demand into delivered megawatts while proving it can sell more than GPU-hours as pricing normalizes. This week a notable sentiment tell showed up: D.A. Davidson moved from skeptic to Neutral in early January [----] but still highlighted ROIC versus cost-of-capital tension. This week our coverage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2011143712714207337)  2026-01-13T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"How to read this quickly: Right = stronger M.I.N.D. structure Left = weaker foundations Up = improving trajectory Down = deterioration The market prices the right side. The next cycle is decided by whos moving up vs down"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2011508710460293569)  2026-01-14T18:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"The circled point isnt the strongest name here. Its trend just inflected from deterioration to improvement. In The Last Economy these inflections can show up months before upgrades narrative shifts or multiple expansion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2011508712037577124)  2026-01-14T18:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"The Last Economy Watch: AI demand is compounding - but power + trust gates may throttle deployment. This week: OpenAI+SoftBank put $1B into SB Energy for a Stargate-linked 1.2GW Texas buildout as PJM floated peak curtailment. Do permits/PPAs compress before curtailment + liability tighten https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011511945250173201 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011511945250173201"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2011511945250173201)  2026-01-14T18:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"AI infrastructure is being financed like the future is arriving on schedule - but grid operators and trust gatekeepers are signaling they may ration or condition access. This week Reuters reported OpenAI and SoftBank committed $1B into SB Energy tied to a Stargate-linked 1.2GW Texas data-center buildout. The mechanism is simple: compute only compounds where power is bankable and distribution remains stable. Whats easy to miss is that distribution is turning into a policy surface. If the OS layer app stores and safety regimes tighten model capability alone does not guarantee deployment. This"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2011511948177785141)  2026-01-14T18:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"eVTOL isnt bottlenecked by demos - its bottlenecked by throughput. $JOBY: Jan [--] deal for a 700k+ sq ft 2nd Ohio facility; Jan [--] accepted a CAE simulator (250 pilots/yr). Hinge: FAA cert + ramp on time or slip anyway --- Joby can keep stacking readiness milestones - but the category only changes when those milestones translate into certifiable repeatable production and operations. On Jan [--] [----] Joby Aviation (JOBY) said it signed an agreement to acquire a 700000+ sq ft second Ohio facility. On Jan [--] [----] it said it accepted the first CAE simulator with stated capacity to train up to [---] pilots"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2011838287279755432)  2026-01-15T16:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"AI inside AI economics. Exhibit: Lumentum $LITE reports Feb [--] [----]. Do $LITE / $LMND / $BFLY gain control (socket lock-in underwriting stability paid software attach) - or stay pass-through --- AI features are proliferating - but the economics dont automatically follow. Lumentum reports fiscal Q2 [----] results on Feb [--] [----]. Thats a clean checkpoint for a broader tension: a business can ship AI-enabled features and still fail to capture durable pricing power. Whats easy to miss is that AI inside often shows up as a feature - while control (distribution regulation-proof trust or a scarce"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2011868486797295861)  2026-01-15T18:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Strong rails lagging paid proof: Tempus $TEM preannounced FY2025 rev $1.27B and 126% NRR. But Oracle $ORCL must turn $523B RPO into utilized collectible OCI and Chainlink $LINK must keep Reserve/fee routing visible. Do tolls get auditable - or stay opaque --- Strong structure is showing up across rails businesses - but the market still wants the same simple proof: auditable repeat paid usage. Tempus preannounced FY2025 revenue of about $1.27B and about 126% net revenue retention and yet the debate persists because the tolls have to stay visible and repeatable. This week three very different"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2012230874599920033)  2026-01-16T18:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Better tokenomics unproven demand: Polkadots first issuance step-down is set for 2026-03-14 with Revive contracts now discussed as nearing 2026-01-27. Hinge: do fees/coretime turn into a real sink or stay thin --- Polkadots token story is getting tighter - but fee gravity is still unproven. Two concrete dates matter here: the first issuance step-down starts on March [--] [----] and the Revive smart-contract rollout is now discussed as nearing enactment on January [--] [----]. The mechanism is simple - changing supply mechanics improves credibility but only paid usage (fees and capacity purchases)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2012261073655882228)  2026-01-16T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Inline control plane + zero tolerance for blind spots. Jan 5: Cloudflare $NET investigated delays processing Gateway Network Firewall logs in its Dashboard (Logpush not affected). Question: isolated - or a pattern that slows enterprise consolidation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2013650227643715802)  2026-01-20T16:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Offtake interest is real but FOAK gates still decide scale. Jan 9: $OKLO disclosed a Meta-linked framework for a [---] GW Ohio campus (Phase [--] 2030). Key question: do dated licensing/financing milestones land first - or do slips push customers back to grid/gas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2013680424799949080)  2026-01-20T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"In-cabin AI has a tension: shipping is hard - monetizing like a platform is harder. Cerence $CRNC says Geely xUI deployment starts Apr [----] (Galaxy M9) + multiple [----] launches on $NVDA AI Enterprise / $MSFT Azure. Does SOP = recurring $/car or middleware"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2013710623310242293)  2026-01-20T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"L2s are scaling Ethereum but its not obvious the base layer captures more value. This week $ETH slipped #3#4 on a lower-fee regime + higher leakage risk to L2s. Easy to miss: more activity can mean quieter L1. Do data fees turn into burn/rewards by Q226 - or not Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014076143331365177 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014076143331365177"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014080568892272848)  2026-01-21T21:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Demand signal vs cap table: $PL announced a multi-year low nine-figure Swedish Armed Forces satellite services deal (Jan 12) - then triggered earnout share tranches at $15/$17 (Jan 13). Cap tables can mute contract signals. Does services SKU scaling win - or dilution + lumpy procurement Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014078149546614848 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014095666453360881 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014078149546614848 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014095666453360881"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014095666453360881)  2026-01-21T22:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"In a modular world end users can pay L2 sequencers and never touch L1 fees directly. Thats the leakage risk - L1 only wins if rollup data posting demand shows up as sustained base-layer economics. So the question for $ETH isnt are L2s growing Its whether higher data-fee demand becomes materially higher burn/validator rewards (soon enough to change expectations) or whether L1 stays economically quiet even as the stack gets busier. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014368146233364623 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014368146233364623"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014368146233364623)  2026-01-22T16:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"These are already-believed AI infra winners - so the only surprise left is execution. $ASML reports Jan [--]. Vertiv $VRT lives or dies on backlog conversion. onsemi $ON on utilization + buybacks. Scarcity premium holds - or cycle reset hits first Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014738287295074759 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014738287295074759"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014791496067907756)  2026-01-23T20:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Palladyne AI is pivoting from pure autonomy software into a vertically integrated defense mini-prime. New avionics + machining assets add backlog and capital intensity reshaping the risk/reward vs software-only robotics. More in the weekly update Autonomy software is getting crowded. What is rarer is a small AI company choosing to own the metal as well as the models. Palladyne AI is an example worth watching. Historically it was a niche embodiedAI software play with platforms like IQ for industrial robots Pilot for drones and SwarmOS for swarms. Most revenue came from development contracts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/1999193039206564179)  2025-12-11T19:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Highlight - @Jabil $JBL is shipping into AI data centers (FY26 Q1 beat + raised outlook) yet still trades like cyclical assembly. Paid power/cooling integration + compliance or build-to-print bursts More --- $JBL is shipping into AI data-center buildouts but it still gets valued like a cyclical assemblerunless higher-value power/cooling integration becomes a paid repeatable product. This week added a real signal: Jabils fiscal [----] Q1 (reported Dec [--] 2025) beat expectations and management raised its fiscal [----] outlook reiterating strong Intelligent Infrastructure demand across cloud data"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2008244607415664811)  2026-01-05T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"AI exposure value capture: $MPWR is M.I.N.D. 18th %ile (Upside Compression 14th) - hyperscalers/ODMs can always standardize rack power. Open question: can $MPWR / $AMBA / $PATH add paid attach - or get bundled More --- Enterprise AI spend can be accelerating while value capture is consolidating elsewhere - toward whoever owns the bundle and the switching costs. This week three very different AI exposure names shared the same warning signal: Monolithic Power Systems sat at M.I.N.D. 18th percentile (with Upside Compression 14.8th percentile) a setup where adoption can rise but pricing power may"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2010086745543495902)  2026-01-10T20:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"MRD can scale fast and still not compound if reimbursement is the governor. Natera $NTRA prelim: FY2025 rev $2.3B + cash inflows $100M with record sequential MRD unit growth in Q4. Feb call: durable cadence or prognostic-only caps Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014366590515687537 https://t.co/ma4Zo8sLOm https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014366590515687537 https://t.co/ma4Zo8sLOm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014427094349205621)  2026-01-22T19:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"AI exposure can be real and still not compound. Exhibit: $FN and $RMBS report Feb [--] [----] - a clean read on utilization + platform timing. Whats easy to miss: $RMBS sits at ATH. Do these become must-have sockets - or get integrated/dual-sourced Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014738724547149864 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014738724547149864"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014820441605497157)  2026-01-23T22:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$ICE and the Regime Shift: Settlement wants 24/7 speed. Regulation wants 24/7 trust. ICE/NYSE disclosed a tokenized securities platform concept: 24/7 trading on-chain settlement stablecoin funding (subject to approvals). Scalable regulated rails - or a permanent walled-garden pilot Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016191848537293263 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016191848537293263"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016202041526202576)  2026-01-27T17:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Dual-platform quantum widens the story - and doubles the proof burden. $QBTS closed the Quantum Circuits acquisition on 20th Jan. Qubits [----] (Jan 27-28) is the next roadmap moment. Dated SKUs + attested benchmarks by Feb [----] or still services-first Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016194479519367448 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016194479519367448"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016217139632603227)  2026-01-27T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"AI chip ramps dont fail on GPUs - they fail on permissioned lithography throughput. $ASML (1/28) printed a step-up in Q4 order intake + a higher year-end backlog and guided [----] revenue above FY2025. Is the constraint licensing - or shipment throughput See: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016910412500127810 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016910412500127810"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016910647234351163)  2026-01-29T16:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"AI datacom demand can be real while revenue stays gated by yields. This week $COHR set its Feb [--] [----] earnings date - the next hard checkpoint. Does it quantify constrained-step output/yield progress or does optics stay in allocation mode Read the article https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017274675693555959 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017274675693555959"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017274868145000838)  2026-01-30T16:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Whats easy to miss: this isnt just risk-on/risk-off. Partner-backed scaling can reduce the time penalty of long build cycles while market-funded scaling gets repriced each time terms tighten. The open question is whether $JOBY final coupon/conversion premium (and any new $NNOX / $SPIR disclosures) reads like capital loosening - or just a higher price for time. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017399110631150058 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017399110631150058"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017399110631150058)  2026-01-31T00:46Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Whats easy to miss: in optics demand is not the same as shipments. A small change in yield at a constrained step can dominate how fast backlog turns into revenue. So the question into Feb [--] is simple: does $COHR give specific evidence that constrained capacity is easing (output yields lead times) or do they stay supply-limited as customers push harder on dual-sourcing https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017399280072593822 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017399280072593822"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017399280072593822)  2026-01-31T00:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"The AI rollout is increasingly a change-control problem: permissions approvals rollback and audit trails across regulated workflows. Thats why governance layers can matter as much as model quality. But the gating question for $ZS is still practical: can it add this control without adding friction (latency false positives workflow breakage) or does it get bundled and treated like a checkbox https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017399406610571363 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017399406610571363"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017399406610571363)  2026-01-31T00:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Whats easy to miss with $ASML is that backlog up is only half the story - the other half is whether those tools can be shipped installed and kept running (services and uptime are part of the gate not an afterthought). If this gets interesting its likely via disclosures - the 2/25 annual reports and any export-control updates should clarify whether the binding constraint is tightening permissioning or whether supplier throughput is enabling (not capping) deliveries. Which one do you think bites first https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017399522339787012"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017399522339787012)  2026-01-31T00:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Whats easy to miss is who buys indoor delivery: operators and property managers. When unit economics are explicit procurement friction drops and partners can pitch deployments as a predictable opex line item. But $SERV still has to earn repeatable permissioning and utilization city by city. Do we see durable approvals and multi-site awards or does the rollout stay episodic https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017640735718449534 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017640735718449534"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017640735718449534)  2026-01-31T16:46Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Capital-Intensity Risk EasesExcept for Bitcoin Capital-intensity risk is splitting AI and crypto names. Relay Therapeutics Quantum Computing Inc. SentinelOne and Red Cat all have clearer funding or asset-light models while Bitcoins low-fee security budget keeps long-run costs a key open risk. More in update Capital intensity is becoming a quiet dividing line between AIera names that can fund their roadmaps and those that carry structural cost-of-security risk. In this weeks work we looked at Relay Therapeutics Quantum Computing Inc. SentinelOne Red Cat Holdings and the Bitcoin network through"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/1999979666699174105)  2025-12-13T23:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Segment News - Autonomy credibility is rising while AI hardware gets priced colder. Jan [--] update: Aurora $AUR M.I.N.D. trend improving as Nebius $NBIS deteriorates and Jabil $JBL sits near highs. Do deployments scale before infra proves margin/financing stability --- Autonomy is getting more believable - at the same time hardware and infrastructure are getting valued more conservatively. In the 2026-01-14 weekly update one under-discussed detail was the split happening inside AI itself: autonomy execution confidence improved while infra and hardware terminal multiple assumptions were"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2012955650662518855)  2026-01-18T18:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Strong structure weak belief - because conversion is gated. Timers this month: $META reports Jan 28; $EQIX reports Feb 11; Cosmos Hub targets Token Factory mainnet in early Feb. Fork: do we get auditable fees/power/ROIor more scale without legible economics Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014737713300451342 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014737713300451342"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014760040045953052)  2026-01-23T18:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Long contracts de-risk power - until market rules change. $VST signed 20-year nuclear agreements with @Meta (Jan 9) then priced $2.25B senior secured notes (Jan 12) for a 5.5GW gas acquisition. Does policy let tightness be contracted or capped Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016193450899866111 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016193450899866111"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016232239739118053)  2026-01-27T19:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Strong structure lagging belief: $ZS launched new enterprise AI security capabilities on 1/27. The under-discussed part is it looks like an inline permission layer for agents. Does paid attach show up soon - or do buyers wait for incident-free proof (and keep procurement cautious) Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016911495884681538 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016941663730749782 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016911495884681538 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016941663730749782"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016941663730749782)  2026-01-29T18:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Risk news: Deep tech can be right on the tech and still lose on sequencing. This week: $JOBY announced proposed common + convertible offerings targeting $1B while our risk lens moved opposite on $NNOX vs $AUR. Does this capital gate reopen - or tighten into dilution See: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017275632032641276 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017275632032641276"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017289204943007918)  2026-01-30T17:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$SERV can get more financeable on paper and still fail to scale - because sidewalks are permissioned. Exhibit: 2026-01-20 SERV announced the Diligent Robotics deal (Q1 close expected). Open question: do programmatic awards / long-duration approvals show up next [--] quarters - or not Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017398334240264438 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017398334240264438"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017613853622980649)  2026-01-31T15:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Capability vs repeatability is still the real quantum bottleneck. D-Wave $QBTS closed Quantum Circuits (10.43M shares + $250M cash) then announced a $20M FAU Advantage2 commitment thats subject to Florida public-entity requirements. Clears procurement fast - or stays a headline Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017644587754607032 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017644587754607032"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017976231199756413)  2026-02-01T15:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Last Economy Watch: AI capex can scale faster than AI power can get permitted. Meta $META guided [----] capex to $115B$135B - while Georgia HB [----] would pause new data centers until Mar [----] (OK SB [----] to Nov 2029). Does this stay local or spread into a multi-state throttle Read the Last Economy Watch article: Also read today's article on "Low/Low Quadrant" risks $AAOI $APLD and $SITM: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018122326399996101 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018121034856321481 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018122326399996101"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018346170276516234)  2026-02-02T15:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"AI-adjacent value capture. $APLD announced a 15-year 200MW investment-grade hyperscaler lease (Jan 7). Fork: do lease terms + project finance detail show up soon - or does the capital stack absorb most of the economics Read the article: Also read today's Last Economy Watch article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018121034856321481 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018122326399996101 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018122326399996101 https://t.co/RSrIYsJyHv https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018121034856321481 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018122326399996101"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018361269015998788)  2026-02-02T16:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"The under-discussed part isnt can the truck drive itself - its whether partners can operationalize it on a calendar while Aurora keeps the bridge funded. Aurora reported $87m cash as of 2025-09-30 so timing slips can quickly become financing posture questions. If Feb [--] doesnt come with dated lane sequencing + partner workflow details does the narrative revert to still a project for $AUR https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018717892712538372 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018717892712538372"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018717892712538372)  2026-02-03T16:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Certification can be real while the equity breaks the story. $JOBY just floated a $1B stock + convertible raise (1/28) with an Ohio facility deal outside date 2/27/26. Does this bridge buy time cleanly - or does the capital stack become the gate See: Also today: $AUR Timer Started: Feb [--] Must Turn Progress Into Schedule-Credible Commercialization: $CLS $1B AI capacity build raises the only question that matters: is it already reserved https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018711598102372616 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018710989831868462"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018746430761111580)  2026-02-03T18:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"AWS cant monetize ordered capacity. It can only monetize energized capacity. $AMZN just guided $200B capex for [----]. Does AWS translate watts into governed revenue fast enough - or does it become multi-year cash drag Read the article: Also today: Last Economy Watch - Capex Surges but the Binding Constraint Is Still Power and Permissioning - Regime shift: time-to-power is becoming the moat (PWR MPWR HPE SITM SDGR) - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019678327926354254 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019676830622707975 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019677558262878266"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019803279346078098)  2026-02-06T16:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"AI features are getting cheap but pricing power isnt. Feb 5: we started scoring software on obsolescence risk vs durable advantage. Under-discussed threat: bundling into Microsoft $MSFT / Google $GOOG / Amazon $AMZN. Do switching costs win - or does bundling Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019681579250114906 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019681579250114906"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2020165661998346326)  2026-02-07T16:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Demand can be real but deployment still stalls if permissioning shifts mid-build. Jan 15: case-by-case export licenses for H200/MI325X-class chips to China/Macau. Does this stabilize into rules-of-road - or stay episodic enough to force rebuilds $NVDA $AMBA $ZS $NTRA Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2015846155985523155 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015907611535933504 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2015846155985523155 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015907611535933504"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2015907611535933504)  2026-01-26T22:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Last Economy Watch - AI demand looks loud but scaling still runs into physics + politics. This week: $AMZN reset expectations with an about $200B [----] capex plan (Big Tech $660B total). Open question: does this become energized capacity - or do power/permitting + financing force staged rollouts Read the article: Also today: Amazons $200B AI Buildout Hits the Only KPI That Matters: Energized Capacity - Regime shift: time-to-power is becoming the moat (PWR MPWR HPE SITM SDGR) - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019678327926354254 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019677558262878266"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019788170439868809)  2026-02-06T15:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Gen3 can improve $BKSY product but procurement timing + capex cadence can still keep the business lumpy. Feb 3: sevenfigure Gen3 assuredservices wins with a new international defense customer. Feb [--] call: utilization + renewals - or just oneoffs More: Also today: $COIN Network moat vs the [--] rulebooks constraint - Nevada lands days before Feb [--] - Speculative Upside Options: One Gate One Timer One Proof Point $MSTR $NTLA $CRNC - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021983414422057245 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021982848329429404"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022015347633651964)  2026-02-12T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$BEAM sickle-cell durability looks stronger but adoption is still gated by conditioning + center/payer ops. Jan [--] (JPM): do we get explicit regulatory timing and clean in vivo liver progressor more timeline drift --- Beam Therapeutics has strengthening clinical durability signalsbut adoption is still gated by conditioning toxicity transplant-center operations and payer friction. On Dec [--] [----] Beam Therapeutics presented an expanded BEACON dataset in sickle cell disease: [--] patients with durability out to [--] months. Mature follow-up like this can act as platform credibility evidencebecause it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2007157444456165882)  2026-01-02T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"ADAS demand can be real while the calendar still breaks expectations. Jan 22: Mobileye $MBLY guided FY26 revenue $1.90B$1.98B. Whats easy to miss: program win production readiness. Do higher-content U.S. OEM programs clear that gate in [--] quarters - or slip again Read the article: Also today: AI can generate drug ideas instantly - but who can actually run the lab fast enough https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019076282475216949 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019076875369529671 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019092334970106274"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019092334970106274)  2026-02-04T16:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Risk news - AI capacity is being treated like a capex decision - but rate cases and permits can veto it. Easy to miss: the regulator is your local power bill. Axios (Feb 5): data-center power-cost bill. Same week we raised permissioning risk in $PWR / $HPE. Template - or fight-by-fight Read the article: Also today: Last Economy Watch - Capex Surges but the Binding Constraint Is Still Power and Permissioning - Amazons $200B AI Buildout Hits the Only KPI That Matters: Energized Capacity - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019677558262878266"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019818378941399361)  2026-02-06T17:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Policy signals for Coinbase $COIN are splitting: Nevadas Gaming Control Board filed a civil action tied to event contracts (Feb 3) then the CFTC withdrew prior event-contract steps (Feb 4). Does this converge into one rulebook - or fracture state-by-state More: Also today: Speculative Upside Options: One Gate One Timer One Proof Point $MSTR $NTLA $CRNC - $BKSY Gen-3: Assured outcomes only matters if Feb [--] makes renewals and utilization testable - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021983821311394240 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021983414422057245"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021985146535391418)  2026-02-12T16:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Demand is signed but bills are real. $ORCL just paired a $25B notes deal with a $20B ATM and a $45B-$50B [----] gross-proceeds plan. Does this become energized OCI capacity before financing costs bite - or do power/commissioning + utilization slip More: Also today: $SPIR $AISP $SERV: Edge AI failure mode: contracts are real but integration + runway are the gate - $SPIR: The M.I.N.D. story is intact - but the capital financing gate is now the whole debate - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2022355522276692326 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2022354964266533152"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022355899604746681)  2026-02-13T17:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Compliance is becoming a real time-to-scale bottleneck: safety certification export controls and AI/privacy governance add cost + elongate launch cycles (frontier hardware + AI workflows). We flagged this risk rising for $ACHR $OUST $FIVN. More in the weekly update Compliance drag is risingand its becoming a real timeline risk in frontier hardware and AI-enabled workflows. In our weekly update we flagged that certification/safety export controls/tariffs and privacy/AI governance increasingly act like a hidden tax on scaling. Not because any one rule is fatal but because the combined burden"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2002174611702583385)  2025-12-20T00:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Autonomous trucking isnt stuck on demos - its stuck on dates. $AUR has a Feb [--] [----] business review that should either anchor a real commercialization calendar. Easy to miss: its McLeod TMS integration is already done. Do we get dated partner-backed milestones - or a vague deck Read the article: Also today: $CLS $1B AI capacity build raises the only question that matters: is it already reserved $JOBY gate moved: runway terms now matter as much as FAA progress: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018712125930442760 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018711598102372616"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018716110179508486)  2026-02-03T16:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Hyperscaler wins only compound if the capacity is qualified *and* spoken for. This week Celestica $CLS lifted [----] capex to $1.0B (6% of its $17B revenue outlook) ahead of a Jan [--] call. Easy to miss: cash + working-cap hit first. Reserved capacity - or self-funded hope Read the article: Also today: $AUR Timer Started: Feb [--] Must Turn Progress Into Schedule-Credible Commercialization: $JOBY gate moved: runway terms now matter as much as FAA progress: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018712125930442760 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018710989831868462"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018731208595697708)  2026-02-03T17:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Segment News - TechBio is getting reranked up - even while the trend still looks messy. 1/28 weekly update: $DNA $RXRX $SDGR $RLAY moved up in 5y EV ranks as autonomous labs + compute-first discovery but M.I.N.D. trends were flagged deteriorating. Do they prove paid lab utilization by mid-26 - or stay demo + burn Read the article: Also today: Mobileyes Tech Isnt the Problem - Its the Production Calendar: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019076875369529671 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019076282475216949 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019076875369529671"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019077389683487098)  2026-02-04T15:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"In-line security is unforgiving: one bad integration can stall buyers. Zscaler $ZS bought SquareX (Feb 5) ahead of Feb [--] earnings to push policy into the standard browser (where tokens live). Paid attach by mid-2026 or roadmap slide + latency tax Read the article: Also today: $AUR - The hard part of self-driving trucks is everything after it drives - Snowflakes $200M OpenAI bet isnt about models - its about who owns the permissions ledger - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2020985215364235666 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2020984188216992155"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021252826069102966)  2026-02-10T16:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Snowflake $SNOW wants to be the enterprise agent gate - but trust/uptime is part of the product. Exhibit: $200M multi-year OpenAI partnership (Feb 2) + two service incidents in late Jan. Feb 25: governed tollbooth or checkbox feature Read the article: Also today: $AUR - The hard part of self-driving trucks is everything after it drives - Zscaler just moved into the browser - now it has to prove it wont slow the enterprise down - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2020984631903047693 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2020984188216992155"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021267924959252710)  2026-02-10T17:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"The modern Industrial Revolution is not about better tools - it is about the collapse of coordination cognition and energy constraints and the hardest part is believing that this matters before the outputs look impressive. - Cognition cost per decision is collapsing - Coordination overhead is collapsing - Capital is substituting for skilled judgment - Energy available per unit compute will rise (eventually unevenly) - Human labor is becoming a latency bottleneck not a value source https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021393813085016127 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021393813085016127"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021393813085016127)  2026-02-11T01:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"A hold lifted headline can hide the real gate: can investigators run the monitoring at scale On Jan [--] the FDA lifted $NTLA MAGNITUDE-2 (ATTRv-PN) hold with enhanced liver monitoring + a higher enrollment target. Fast restart - or slow grind while ATTR-CM stays stuck More: Also today: $CRM (Feb 25) $PANW (Feb 17) $RXRX (1H26) - when durable advantage has to hit the line items - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021441985857585576 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021615216610648437)  2026-02-11T16:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Strong structure lagging belief: $PANW reports Feb [--] and $CRM Feb [--]. The proof for AI wins has to show up in audited line items. Do we get explicit agent/AI attach disclosure soon - or do pilots stay bundled and belief stays stuck More: Also today: $NTLA: The gate moved - now prove enhanced monitoring can scale across real trial sites - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021441985857585576 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362 https://t.co/UWYBebl6mI https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021441985857585576 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021630314121244849)  2026-02-11T17:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Whats easy to miss is the operational math: enhanced liver monitoring plus a higher enrollment target means more workflow per patient and more patients to find. So the next proof point isnt a press release its auditable trial throughput (sites activated patients dosed). Does MAGNITUDE-2 convert permission into real execution quickly - or does the monitoring burden (and the still-held ATTR-CM program) keep confidence as the binding constraint for $NTLA https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021636778151780560 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021636778151780560"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021636778151780560)  2026-02-11T17:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Driverless proof isnt the bottleneck for Aurora $AUR - repeatable ops are. Feb [--] [----] business review call is the checkpoint. Easy to miss: the Jan [--] McLeod TMS integration is a real distribution wedge. Feb [--] = lane-by-lane observer-free milestones or timeline reframed Read the article: Also today: Zscaler just moved into the browser - now it has to prove it wont slow the enterprise down - Snowflakes $200M OpenAI bet isnt about models - its about who owns the permissions ledger - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2020985215364235666"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021237730982658089)  2026-02-10T15:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Whats easy to miss with $ORCL is the timing mismatch: interest and dilution risk start immediately but revenue only shows up once clusters are powered commissioned and customers ramp real workloads. So the next earnings package matters less for AI demand talk and more for commissioning and power timelines plus any disclosure of ATM usage cadence - do we get specificity or does delivery stay vague https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022356059097305467 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022356059097305467"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022356059097305467)  2026-02-13T17:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"The modern Industrial Revolution is not about better tools - it is about the collapse of coordination cognition and energy constraints and the hardest part is believing that this matters before the outputs look impressive. - Cognition cost per decision is collapsing - Coordination overhead is collapsing - Capital is substituting for skilled judgment - Energy available per unit compute will rise (eventually unevenly) - Human labor is becoming a latency bottleneck not a value source https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021393813085016127 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021393813085016127"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021393813085016127)  2026-02-11T01:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Contracts make defense/space edge AI feel inevitable but integration + runway still decide survival. This week our edge segment moved down (high confidence): $SPIR [----] $SERV [----] $AISP [--]. Do they prove repeatable deployments in [--] qtrs or pivot to financing talk More: Also today: ORCLs capital gate moved - now OCI has to prove commissioning speed before financing costs dominate - $SPIR: The M.I.N.D. story is intact - but the capital financing gate is now the whole debate - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2022355522276692326 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2022354247183143138"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022371190879252572)  2026-02-13T18:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Whats easy to miss is that deployment often means months of bespoke integration work plus governance and defense compliance gates (CMMC/DFARS-type readiness) before programs can scale beyond pilots. If $AISP quantifies shipment/acceptance and early-2026 invoicing SERV posts clean post-deal integration/pro forma clarity or SPIR takes credible runway actions the narrative could flip fast - if not does the cash-flow wall stay the binding constraint"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022411031805677617)  2026-02-13T20:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Contracts can sound like software; financing behaves like hardware. This week $SPIR slid [--] - [--] in our screen as capital financing stayed the dominant constraint (weighted risk=0.615). Is this a temporary liquidity squeeze - or a structural cant self-fund next capacity step signal More: Also today: ORCLs capital gate moved - now OCI has to prove commissioning speed before financing costs dominate - $SPIR $AISP $SERV: Edge AI failure mode: contracts are real but integration + runway are the gate - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2022354964266533152"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022386793262305760)  2026-02-13T19:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Whats under-discussed in space-data names is how time to commissioning becomes balance-sheet leverage. Spire launched [--] satellites on 2026-01-12 but the value shows up later - any slip effectively extends the cash conversion cycle. With $96.75m cash/marketable securities reported as of 2025-09-30 and Q3 FCF (CFO-capex) around -$20.4m the fork is whether $SPIR can show a contract-backed non-dilutive runway extension (or clear cost-down) in the next 1-2 quarters - or whether liquidity stays the gating narrative"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022410905779372536)  2026-02-13T20:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Demand is signed but bills are real. $ORCL just paired a $25B notes deal with a $20B ATM and a $45B-$50B [----] gross-proceeds plan. Does this become energized OCI capacity before financing costs bite - or do power/commissioning + utilization slip More: Also today: $SPIR $AISP $SERV: Edge AI failure mode: contracts are real but integration + runway are the gate - $SPIR: The M.I.N.D. story is intact - but the capital financing gate is now the whole debate - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2022355522276692326 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2022354964266533152"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022355899604746681)  2026-02-13T17:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"ORCLs capital gate moved - now OCI has to prove commissioning speed before financing costs dominate Financing can remove one bottleneck and create another. Oracle (ORCL) just attached real money to its AI infrastructure plan but the same move raises fixed obligations while customers only pay when http://x.com/i/article/2022353700241707009 http://x.com/i/article/2022353700241707009"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022354247183143138)  2026-02-13T16:56Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Whats easy to miss with $ORCL is the timing mismatch: interest and dilution risk start immediately but revenue only shows up once clusters are powered commissioned and customers ramp real workloads. So the next earnings package matters less for AI demand talk and more for commissioning and power timelines plus any disclosure of ATM usage cadence - do we get specificity or does delivery stay vague https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022356059097305467 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022356059097305467"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022356059097305467)  2026-02-13T17:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$SPIR: The M.I.N.D. story is intact - but the capital financing gate is now the whole debate Space services can be sold as data subscriptions but the business can still be gated by capital timing. This week Spire Global (SPIR) fell from rank [--] to [--] in our weekly screen and its forecast http://x.com/i/article/2022355040145653760 http://x.com/i/article/2022355040145653760"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022355522276692326)  2026-02-13T17:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$SPIR $AISP $SERV: Edge AI failure mode: contracts are real but integration + runway are the gate Edge AI at the point of work looks inevitable in defense space and robotics. But the uncomfortable tension is that deployments can still stall for non-technical reasons: integration cost http://x.com/i/article/2022354321338437632 http://x.com/i/article/2022354321338437632"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022354964266533152)  2026-02-13T16:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Gen3 can improve $BKSY product but procurement timing + capex cadence can still keep the business lumpy. Feb 3: sevenfigure Gen3 assuredservices wins with a new international defense customer. Feb [--] call: utilization + renewals - or just oneoffs More: Also today: $COIN Network moat vs the [--] rulebooks constraint - Nevada lands days before Feb [--] - Speculative Upside Options: One Gate One Timer One Proof Point $MSTR $NTLA $CRNC - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021983414422057245 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021982848329429404"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022015347633651964)  2026-02-12T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Whats easy to miss: assured services is a pricing/contract claim not a camera spec. It only compounds if customers keep paying for reliability (coverage + low latency) and if that outcome is measurable inside secure workflows. So Feb [--] is less about celebrating wins more about testability - do we get a clear ramp/utilization narrative and renewal signals or does budget timing and liquidity/capex planning remain the binding constraint for $BKSY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022082121297461714)  2026-02-12T22:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"These arent AI-Era stories yet - theyre calendar gates. Strategy $MSTR has a cash dividend payable Feb 28; Intellia $NTLA got an FDA hold lift Jan 27; Cerence $CRNC filed its 10Q Feb [--]. Do the next disclosures show auditable progress - or that the constraint still binds More: Also today: BlackSky Gen-3: Assured outcomes only matters if Feb [--] makes renewals and utilization testable - $COINs Network moat vs the [--] rulebooks constraint - Nevada lands days before Feb [--] - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021982848329429404 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021983821311394240"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022000246147154383)  2026-02-12T17:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Whats under-discussed is how proof differs by gate. For $CRNC Q1 strength includes a $49.5m patent license payment - so the real question is whether cash generation and OEM signals still look durable when results normalize. Is the next update about repeatable throughput or another quarter that only works with one-offs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022010685203566866)  2026-02-12T18:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Policy signals for Coinbase $COIN are splitting: Nevadas Gaming Control Board filed a civil action tied to event contracts (Feb 3) then the CFTC withdrew prior event-contract steps (Feb 4). Does this converge into one rulebook - or fracture state-by-state More: Also today: Speculative Upside Options: One Gate One Timer One Proof Point $MSTR $NTLA $CRNC - $BKSY Gen-3: Assured outcomes only matters if Feb [--] makes renewals and utilization testable - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021983821311394240 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021983414422057245"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021985146535391418)  2026-02-12T16:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Whats under-discussed is that permissioning can arrive through gaming enforcement not just financial regulators. If an app feature is framed as wagering a state board can seek injunction-style relief even while federal agencies reset their own rulemaking path. Feb [--] is the tell for $COIN: do they describe event contracts as a containable edge case or as a product surface that has to be redesigned around [--] jurisdictions - and if so does that slow the mix shift toward steadier subscription/services"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021985635964461359)  2026-02-12T16:31Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"BlackSky Gen-3: Assured outcomes only matters if Feb [--] makes renewals and utilization testable Gen-3 can make the product better but the business still breaks if procurement timing and financing cadence prevent a stable recurring service model. Exhibit A: on Feb [--] BlackSky announced multiple http://x.com/i/article/2021983465424711680 http://x.com/i/article/2021983465424711680"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021983821311394240)  2026-02-12T16:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Speculative Upside Options: One Gate One Timer One Proof Point (MSTR NTLA CRNC) The tension with option-like equities is that they can re-rate on one cleared constraint but they are also fragile because a single missed checkpoint can shut the window. This weeks most concrete http://x.com/i/article/2021982925261320192 http://x.com/i/article/2021982925261320192"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021983414422057245)  2026-02-12T16:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$COINs Network moat vs the [--] rulebooks constraint - Nevada lands days before Feb [--] Coinbase is trying to become boring market infrastructure - but U.S. permissioning still behaves like a patchwork. On Feb [--] the Nevada Gaming Control Board filed a civil enforcement action tied to http://x.com/i/article/2021982464311537669 http://x.com/i/article/2021982464311537669"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021982848329429404)  2026-02-12T16:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Strong structure lagging belief: $PANW reports Feb [--] and $CRM Feb [--]. The proof for AI wins has to show up in audited line items. Do we get explicit agent/AI attach disclosure soon - or do pilots stay bundled and belief stays stuck More: Also today: $NTLA: The gate moved - now prove enhanced monitoring can scale across real trial sites - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021441985857585576 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362 https://t.co/UWYBebl6mI https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021441985857585576 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021630314121244849)  2026-02-11T17:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$CRM (Feb 25) $PANW (Feb 17) $RXRX (1H26) - when durable advantage has to hit the line items The tension in AI investing is shifting from who demos best to who proves value in audited results. Exhibit: Palo Alto Networks reports on Feb [--] [----] and Salesforce reports on Feb [--] [----] - http://x.com/i/article/2021442075305410560 http://x.com/i/article/2021442075305410560"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021442613526790362)  2026-02-11T04:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Whats easy to miss: the AI era is moving from demos to procurement. Procurement teams increasingly want audit trails for AI actions and that pushes value toward whoever controls governed distribution (workflows) or in-line enforcement (security). So the near-term question is less who shipped the coolest agent and more who can report it cleanly. Does $CRM start separating attach and retention effects in a way finance teams can defend - or does the story stay qualitative for another cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021636912789029029)  2026-02-11T17:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"A hold lifted headline can hide the real gate: can investigators run the monitoring at scale On Jan [--] the FDA lifted $NTLA MAGNITUDE-2 (ATTRv-PN) hold with enhanced liver monitoring + a higher enrollment target. Fast restart - or slow grind while ATTR-CM stays stuck More: Also today: $CRM (Feb 25) $PANW (Feb 17) $RXRX (1H26) - when durable advantage has to hit the line items - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021441985857585576 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021615216610648437)  2026-02-11T16:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Whats easy to miss is the operational math: enhanced liver monitoring plus a higher enrollment target means more workflow per patient and more patients to find. So the next proof point isnt a press release its auditable trial throughput (sites activated patients dosed). Does MAGNITUDE-2 convert permission into real execution quickly - or does the monitoring burden (and the still-held ATTR-CM program) keep confidence as the binding constraint for $NTLA https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021636778151780560 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021636778151780560"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021636778151780560)  2026-02-11T17:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing

@NextArcResearch Avatar @NextArcResearch Neil Smith

Neil Smith posts on X about ai, feb, $spir, $aur the most. They currently have [--] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

Engagements: [---] #

Engagements Line Chart

  • [--] Week [-----] -52%
  • [--] Month [-----] +75%

Mentions: [--] #

Mentions Line Chart

  • [--] Week [--] +35%
  • [--] Month [--] +120%

Followers: [--] #

Followers Line Chart

  • [--] Week [--] -4.40%
  • [--] Month [--] +22%

CreatorRank: [---------] #

CreatorRank Line Chart

Social Influence

Social category influence stocks technology brands cryptocurrencies finance exchanges automotive brands

Social topic influence ai, feb, $spir, $aur, strong, in the, $crm, the next, scale, $ntla

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @nuscalepower @aerovironment @cerenceinc @fabrinetfn @sitimecorp @latticesemi @aurorainno @c3ai @servicenow @spireglobal @corescientifics @netapp @qciquantum @tuhurabio @ferc @jabil @meta

Top assets mentioned Auroracoin (AUR) Salesforce Inc (CRM) Intellia Therapeutics, Inc (NTLA) Oracle Corporation (ORCL) OpenServ (SERV) Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RXRX) Zscaler Inc (ZS) Mario Coin (COIN) Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) NetApp Inc. (NTAP) Jabil, Inc. (JBL) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) Strategy (MSTR) Fabrinet (FN) NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) Equinix Inc (EQIX) Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR) Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) Muhdo Hub (DNA) TALEN ENERGY CORP (DE) (TLN) Oklo Inc. (OKLO) SoundHound AI, Inc. Class A Common Stock (SOUN) FIVE9, INC. (FIVN) Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (HPE) Ethereum (ETH) Ambarella, Inc. Ordinary Shares (AMBA) Natera, Inc. Common Stock (NTRA) D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) Coherent Inc (COHR) Nano-X Imaging Ltd. (NNOX) Metadium (META) BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) Coldstack (CLS)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"AI risk is splitting. Infra names like SERV FLNC & APLD now look priced for strong execution while HURA & MATIC trade at distressed levels that already embed failure risk. The question is where you want your optionality. More in the weekly update AI risk is starting to bifurcate. In our latest work we see a clear split: some AI infrastructure names now trade as if success is the default while underowned biotech and crypto assets are priced more like binary options on science or protocol design. On the infrastructure side Serve Robotics Fluence Energy and Applied Digital have all rerated into"
X Link 2025-12-13T10:16Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"#TheLastEconomy Watch stays mixed (medium confidence): computepower co-planning is accelerating and enterprise agent stacks are scalingbut construction/capex bottlenecks and tighter data/IP/provenance governance add real friction. Our read is mixed medium confidence. The durable signal is not AI is accelerating or AI is stalling. Its that real deployment is continuing while constraints are shifting from chips toward power construction capital discipline and governance. Flywheels: Computepower co-planning is becoming explicit. Utilities and cloud operators are pairing new data-center campuses"
X Link 2025-12-14T16:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"New coverage: ASML as a compute-scaling bottleneck. AI demand ultimately has to clear wafer + tooling capacity. Rising lithography intensity (EUV today High-NA next) can expand value per fab while services/software deepen recurring mix. Geopolitics remains the swing factor. More in the weekly update --- Become a member on Patreon to access detailed thoughtful analysis on 110+ AI Era companies beyond the Mag [--]. --- New coverage: ASML as the compute bottleneck. In our framework AI demand ultimately has to clear real-world industrial constraints: wafers tools power fabs and qualified people."
X Link 2025-12-15T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"New coverage: BWX Technologies. In nuclear supply chains the moat is qualification + capacitynot ideas. Our view: upside depends on converting multi-year defense/special-materials demand into repeatable delivery (fuels/isotopes) with execution as the bar. More in the weekly update --- Become a member on Patreon to access detailed thoughtful analysis on 110+ AI Era companies beyond the Mag [--]. --- New coverage in our universe: BWX Technologies (BWXT) and nuclear-qualified scarcity. In nuclear supply chains advantage is rarely about the idea. Its about who can operate under extreme safety and"
X Link 2025-12-16T00:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"AeroVironment: record bookings + a $874M 5-year FMS contract vehicle strengthen the autonomy + counter-drone path. But the long-run edge likely comes down to manufacturing scale cash conversion and services attach as BlueHalo integration settles. More in the weekly update AeroVironments (@aerovironment $AVAV) latest setup is a good reminder that defense autonomy stories are often won (or lost) in the unglamorous layer: manufacturing scale integration and cash conversion. The company reported record revenue and very strong bookings then added a new catalyst for international pull-through: a"
X Link 2025-12-16T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Cerence (@CerenceInc $CRNC) is in 525M+ carsbut the key question is who owns the in-cabin assistant UI. If OEMs/OS stacks capture the interface + data suppliers can see thinner take rates even as AI usage rises. More in the weekly update The key fight in in-car voice AI isnt who has the best model. Its who owns the interface. Cerence sits unusually deep in the automotive stack. In its FY2025 filings the company reports its technology has shipped in 525M+ automobiles to date and it estimates 52% of all cars shipped in FY2025 included Cerence technologies. It also reported an estimated"
X Link 2025-12-19T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"AI capex touches everythingbut value capture doesnt. $FN volume leverage; $SITM can be bundled; $LSCC can be integrated. Take-or-pay capacity vs standards pricing vs software attach More in the weekly update --- AI spending touches everythingbut the bottleneck is still who captures the economics. In this weeks low signal / low upside quadrant notes three AI-adjacent semiconductor names illustrate a common investor mistake: confusing exposure to AI capex with durable pricing power and switching costs. Fabrinet $FN @FabrinetFN is the clean pass-through case: AI networking demand can lift"
X Link 2025-12-22T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Obvious leaders tight expectations: $MSFT must prove Copilot ROI $AMZN must convert peak capex to FCF $ASML must ship HighNA on customer timelinesor margins/throughput slip. More in weekly update --- These leaders look structurally advantagedbut the market already expects them to execute quarter after quarter. When expectations are saturated small misses in margins throughput or timelines can matter more than big narratives. In our priced structural leaders bucket three archetypes stand out: Microsoft (platform lock-in) Amazon (scale + operating leverage) and ASML (manufacturing bottleneck)."
X Link 2025-12-23T00:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Gates before scale: $SMR needs PPAs/FID before dilution $AUR needs driverless lane expansion without a policy/safety reset $AI needs FedRAMPsubs before bundling. Gates clear or stall More --- These are option-like equities where the long-term story can be directionally right but the stock outcome still hinges on a few gates that may or may not open on schedule. This weeks setup is a clean example across three different gate types: 1) NuScale Power $SMR @NuScale_Power : the financing-and-credibility gate. After the Dec [--] [----] approval to raise authorized Class A shares to 662M dilution optics"
X Link 2025-12-23T16:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"AI-era demand can be obvious while proof stays gated: power + interconnection workflow bundling and FAA timelines. Does power clarity improve for $EQIX do control points hold for $NOW vs bundling and does certification/reliability stay on track for $ACHR More in the weekly update $EQIX $NOW $ACHR @ServiceNow --- AI infrastructure demand looks obviousyet some companies stay under-believed because the binding constraint isnt demand. Its whether proof arrives fast enough in the face of power regulation platform bundling or aviation-grade certification timelines. Three examples from this weeks"
X Link 2025-12-23T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"New coverage - $SPIR: $200M+ contracted obligationscan it become recurring highSLA subscriptions with improving margins or stay milestonelumpy and cap operating leverage More in the weekly update --- @SpireGlobal has a credible space-data asset and $200M+ in remaining performance obligations but the open question is whether that demand becomes recurring high-SLA subscriptionsor stays milestone-lumpy and hard to scale. Spire Global operates a low-Earth-orbit satellite fleet that collects RF-derived data and sells weather/climate aviation and RF intelligence products plus space services. In"
X Link 2025-12-24T16:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"New coverage - $CORZ has AI-ready powered shellsbut grid interconnection timelines and a concentrated customer book can still be the constraint. Does it scale into durable colocation cash flows or stay a single-counterparty transition story More --- @Core_Scientific's assets look like AI-ready shellsbut its still uncertain whether its power pipeline and customer diversification can scale fast enough to make AI power-and-space landlord more than a single-counterparty transition story. The reason this is on our radar now: AI compute expansion is increasingly power-and-site led. Permitted"
X Link 2025-12-24T18:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"New coverage - $NTAP sits on enterprise data trustbut can it turn that into an AI data-pipeline layer before hyperscaler bundling commoditizes storage More --- @NetApp has installed-base trust in enterprise data - but its not obvious it will be rewarded for it. The tension: as hyperscalers keep bundling storage and data services NetApp could stay categorized (and priced) as legacy storage even if AI-era workloads increase demand for better data movement governance and resilience. Why its on our radar now: AI workloads often shift the practical constraint from raw compute to the data layer -"
X Link 2025-12-24T20:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Highlight - $QUBT is drifting from quantum demo to qualification test. The $110M allcash LSI deal (363 sale; expected end Jan 26) raises the bar: hyperscalergrade reliability + repeat ordersor still lumpy R&D --- Quantum photonics is moving from lab narratives to manufacturing narrativesbut qualification and repeatability (more than demos) will decide who captures durable value. Quantum Computing Inc. @QciQuantum signed an agreement (8-K) to acquire Luminar Semiconductor (LSI) for $110M all-cash subject to a bankruptcy-court Section [---] sale process with approval expected by the end of"
X Link 2025-12-26T16:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Highlight $HURA - A pivotal Phase [--] can be nonlinear upside but Tuhuras near-term variable is capital structure: Dec [--] registered direct deal (3 tranches + warrants); Dec [--] 8K on proceeds/bridge repayment. Runwayor financing spiral --- A SPA-backed Phase [--] trial can create nonlinear optionalitybut for microcap biotech the financing path can dominate per-share outcomes long before the clinical readout. Thats the tension in TuHURA Biosciences @TuhuraBio $HURA right now: the market can debate efficacy all day but if capital arrives in need mode (tranches warrants ATM pressure) the equity math"
X Link 2025-12-26T18:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Highlight $SMR - NuScale Power demand talk is rising but financeability is the real product. Dec [--] 8K: authorized Class A shares to 662M. Fork: binding PPA + first FID soonor dilution optics snowball --- @NuScale_Power demand narratives are getting louder but the market is increasingly focused on a different question: are these projects financeable without repeated equity issuance In small modular reactors bankability can matter more than reactor physics. What changed this week: on Dec [--] NuScale disclosed via an 8-K that shareholders approved increasing authorized Class A shares to 662M."
X Link 2025-12-26T20:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Loser - Ginko Bioworks $DNA platform story vs a slower [----] ramp - our forecast fell this week. Open question: monetization ceiling or timing reset Confidence shifts on standardized auditable platform deals + better margins/cash control. --- Our forecast for Ginko Bioworks $DNA moved lower after we made the [----] ramp more conservativebut the core question isnt settled: is this a durable ceiling on platform monetization or a timing reset that later re-accelerates In this weeks update $DNA dropped from rank [--] to [--] in our coverage universe. The driver isnt sentiment; its uncertainty in the"
X Link 2025-12-27T16:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Weekly Update - AI demand is rising but power is the limiter: PJMs 2027/28 capacity auction hit the cap and $TLN cleared 8.7GW; $JBL still raised FY26 outlook. Investable grid rules - or political caps that slow deployment More --- AI demand signals keep strengtheningbut the gating function is moving from build more compute to power it permit it and run it reliably. The uncomfortable part: the more real the buildout gets the more it collides with grid governance. This weeks clearest datapoint was PJMs 2027/2028 capacity auction clearing at the cap ($333.44/MW-day). Talen Energy disclosed 8745"
X Link 2025-12-28T16:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"AI demand pricing power: $AAOI fell in our weekly ranks; $VICR is near its 52w high; $NTAP AI story leans on AWS integration. Repeat multi-customer pullor hyperscalers internalize --- AI spending can surge and a supplier can still lose leverage. Thats the under-discussed tension behind a lot of AI plays: being adjacent to the buildout doesnt automatically mean durable value capture when hyperscalers can dual-source internalize or standardize you into a lower-margin lane. In our 2025-12-27 weekly update we placed three companies in a low-signal / low-upside bucketcases where the AI narrative"
X Link 2025-12-29T16:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"These [--] names read like call optionsbut each has near-dated gates. $OKLO: PPAs/licensing (ATM overhang). $RGTI: roadmap paid uptime. $SOUN: voice UI transactions. Do utilization + financing arrive in time More in the weekly update --- The tension in a lot of AI-era upside trades isnt whether the technology worksits whether proof points arrive fast enough to survive the financing and credibility clock. This week were framing three names as different kinds of option value: the upside can be meaningful if discrete gates clear but the downside isnt naturally contained if those gates slip. Oklo is"
X Link 2025-12-29T18:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Consensus AI winners $NVDA $TSM $CEG arent short on narrativetheyre short on room for execution misses. Keep printing (mix/yields/contracts) or a digestion/policy shock makes them trade cyclical. These are already consensus AI winners. The tension is that the story is widely understoodso the next phase is mainly about whether execution stays flawless across supply policy and monetization. Three priced leader archetypes make that concrete: 1) Nvidia the scale + margin machine. Reuters reported on Dec [--] [----] that Nvidia agreed to a non-exclusive license for Groq technology and to hire Groqs"
X Link 2025-12-30T16:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Structure belief: $SPIR (debtfree $200M+ RPO SHIELD IDIQ); $IREN (scarce power + multiyear $MSFT deal); $DOT (Asset Hub; Revive Jan [--] 26). So . funded $ + repeatable KPIs or delays/weak demand --- The hardest stories to price arent no demand storiestheyre real structure unclear delivery stories. The market can see the ingredients but belief lags because timing is uncertain optics are messy and execution risk is non-linear. This week were tracking three different versions of that belief gap: 1) Spire Global a credibility gap. The structure is tangible: a debt-free balance sheet $200M+ in"
X Link 2025-12-30T18:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Highlight - PJM capacity hit the cap ($333.44/MW-day)a tailwind for $TLN but also a flashing rule-change risk. Hinges on whether TLN locks long-term large-load deals before PJM/FERC reforms compress forward pricing. See --- PJMs latest capacity auction hit the price capgreat for generators like Talen Energy but it also raises the odds that the rules become the real ceiling. One hard number matters here: PJMs 2027/2028 capacity auction cleared at the cap ($333.44 per MW-day). Talen disclosed [----] MW cleared. Thats the market saying firm power is scarce in the most AI-constrained U.S. gridnot a"
X Link 2025-12-31T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Power-rich sites are scarcebut $WULF still has to prove it can deliver AI/HPC on time. Steady bankable utilization vs commissioning slips that force repricing/raises. See --- Power-rich data-center campuses are becoming scarce assetsbut its still unclear whether $WULF can turn that scarcity into long-duration AI/HPC cash flows before leverage and delivery risk become the whole story. This matters because AI scaling is increasingly constrained by power interconnection and on-time commissioningnot just by GPUs. This weeks macro signal reinforced that: hyperscalers are moving closer to energy"
X Link 2026-01-06T18:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Strong structure lagging belief: $CRM mispricing signal is [----] but Agentforce still needs metered consumption; $RXRX CEO transition took effect Jan [--] 2026; $AVAX still has to prove durable fee capture. Do fees/usage/readouts show up - or stay narrative More --- Three AI-era infrastructure stories look real on structure but belief is still waiting on a measurable proof point. This weeks under-discussed detail is that belief tends to change only when a CFO can point to a repeatable line item - not when adoption anecdotes get louder. This week our coverage universe surfaced three names in"
X Link 2026-01-09T18:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Edge AI can look real fast - but it only compounds if backlog converts on procurement timelines. This week: Airship AI $AISP improved in our ranks as M.I.N.D. trend strengthened (+0.046/wk). Does Q4/early-26 convert cleanly or stay stop-start with funding strain More --- Edge AI vendors can prove capability fast. The harder part is turning procurement into repeatable shipments and recognized revenue without funding stress. This week Airship AI Holdings $AISP moved up in our coverage rankings (12 8) as its structural trend improved (mind_log_ewma_slope_w5 = +0.0463/week). Why it matters: the"
X Link 2026-01-09T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"AI demand can roar while vendors get weaker. This week we flagged rising customer/supplier concentration risk in $HPE $CRDO $NTAP $FIVN $SOUN; Reuters also called an unprecedented HBM crunch with prices 2x since early [----]. Diversification in [--] qtrs or tighter allocation More --- AI spending can be booming while individual vendors get more fragile if one customer distributor OEM or silicon supplier changes the terms. In the Jan [--] [----] weekly update concentration risk rose across Five9 SoundHound Credo NetApp and Hewlett Packard Enterprise . The mechanism is simple: if a quarters outcome"
X Link 2026-01-11T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Timing is the debate for $TSLA: funding autonomy + energy while EV margins are cyclical. Exhibit: Q425 deliveries 418227; [----] energy storage deployments [----] GWh. Do energy/software ramps shrink the gap - or does EV pressure hit first --- Tesla has to fund autonomy and energy scale while EV margins are cyclical - and the timeline gap can force a re-pricing before new profit pools arrive. On Jan [--] [----] Tesla reported Q4 [----] deliveries of [------] and [----] energy storage deployments of [----] GWh. Why this matters: those two numbers describe two different clocks investors are trying to reconcile."
X Link 2026-01-12T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Contracted AI demand is one thing - delivered megawatts is another. This week: D.A. Davidson moved CoreWeave $CRWV to Neutral (early Jan 2026) but still flagged ROIC vs cost of capital. Does commissioning/utilization hold before hyperscalers squeeze pricing --- CoreWeave is trying to turn contracted AI demand into delivered megawatts while proving it can sell more than GPU-hours as pricing normalizes. This week a notable sentiment tell showed up: D.A. Davidson moved from skeptic to Neutral in early January [----] but still highlighted ROIC versus cost-of-capital tension. This week our coverage"
X Link 2026-01-13T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"How to read this quickly: Right = stronger M.I.N.D. structure Left = weaker foundations Up = improving trajectory Down = deterioration The market prices the right side. The next cycle is decided by whos moving up vs down"
X Link 2026-01-14T18:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"The circled point isnt the strongest name here. Its trend just inflected from deterioration to improvement. In The Last Economy these inflections can show up months before upgrades narrative shifts or multiple expansion"
X Link 2026-01-14T18:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"The Last Economy Watch: AI demand is compounding - but power + trust gates may throttle deployment. This week: OpenAI+SoftBank put $1B into SB Energy for a Stargate-linked 1.2GW Texas buildout as PJM floated peak curtailment. Do permits/PPAs compress before curtailment + liability tighten https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011511945250173201 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011511945250173201"
X Link 2026-01-14T18:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"AI infrastructure is being financed like the future is arriving on schedule - but grid operators and trust gatekeepers are signaling they may ration or condition access. This week Reuters reported OpenAI and SoftBank committed $1B into SB Energy tied to a Stargate-linked 1.2GW Texas data-center buildout. The mechanism is simple: compute only compounds where power is bankable and distribution remains stable. Whats easy to miss is that distribution is turning into a policy surface. If the OS layer app stores and safety regimes tighten model capability alone does not guarantee deployment. This"
X Link 2026-01-14T18:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"eVTOL isnt bottlenecked by demos - its bottlenecked by throughput. $JOBY: Jan [--] deal for a 700k+ sq ft 2nd Ohio facility; Jan [--] accepted a CAE simulator (250 pilots/yr). Hinge: FAA cert + ramp on time or slip anyway --- Joby can keep stacking readiness milestones - but the category only changes when those milestones translate into certifiable repeatable production and operations. On Jan [--] [----] Joby Aviation (JOBY) said it signed an agreement to acquire a 700000+ sq ft second Ohio facility. On Jan [--] [----] it said it accepted the first CAE simulator with stated capacity to train up to [---] pilots"
X Link 2026-01-15T16:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"AI inside AI economics. Exhibit: Lumentum $LITE reports Feb [--] [----]. Do $LITE / $LMND / $BFLY gain control (socket lock-in underwriting stability paid software attach) - or stay pass-through --- AI features are proliferating - but the economics dont automatically follow. Lumentum reports fiscal Q2 [----] results on Feb [--] [----]. Thats a clean checkpoint for a broader tension: a business can ship AI-enabled features and still fail to capture durable pricing power. Whats easy to miss is that AI inside often shows up as a feature - while control (distribution regulation-proof trust or a scarce"
X Link 2026-01-15T18:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Strong rails lagging paid proof: Tempus $TEM preannounced FY2025 rev $1.27B and 126% NRR. But Oracle $ORCL must turn $523B RPO into utilized collectible OCI and Chainlink $LINK must keep Reserve/fee routing visible. Do tolls get auditable - or stay opaque --- Strong structure is showing up across rails businesses - but the market still wants the same simple proof: auditable repeat paid usage. Tempus preannounced FY2025 revenue of about $1.27B and about 126% net revenue retention and yet the debate persists because the tolls have to stay visible and repeatable. This week three very different"
X Link 2026-01-16T18:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Better tokenomics unproven demand: Polkadots first issuance step-down is set for 2026-03-14 with Revive contracts now discussed as nearing 2026-01-27. Hinge: do fees/coretime turn into a real sink or stay thin --- Polkadots token story is getting tighter - but fee gravity is still unproven. Two concrete dates matter here: the first issuance step-down starts on March [--] [----] and the Revive smart-contract rollout is now discussed as nearing enactment on January [--] [----]. The mechanism is simple - changing supply mechanics improves credibility but only paid usage (fees and capacity purchases)"
X Link 2026-01-16T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Inline control plane + zero tolerance for blind spots. Jan 5: Cloudflare $NET investigated delays processing Gateway Network Firewall logs in its Dashboard (Logpush not affected). Question: isolated - or a pattern that slows enterprise consolidation"
X Link 2026-01-20T16:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Offtake interest is real but FOAK gates still decide scale. Jan 9: $OKLO disclosed a Meta-linked framework for a [---] GW Ohio campus (Phase [--] 2030). Key question: do dated licensing/financing milestones land first - or do slips push customers back to grid/gas"
X Link 2026-01-20T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"In-cabin AI has a tension: shipping is hard - monetizing like a platform is harder. Cerence $CRNC says Geely xUI deployment starts Apr [----] (Galaxy M9) + multiple [----] launches on $NVDA AI Enterprise / $MSFT Azure. Does SOP = recurring $/car or middleware"
X Link 2026-01-20T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"L2s are scaling Ethereum but its not obvious the base layer captures more value. This week $ETH slipped #3#4 on a lower-fee regime + higher leakage risk to L2s. Easy to miss: more activity can mean quieter L1. Do data fees turn into burn/rewards by Q226 - or not Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014076143331365177 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014076143331365177"
X Link 2026-01-21T21:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Demand signal vs cap table: $PL announced a multi-year low nine-figure Swedish Armed Forces satellite services deal (Jan 12) - then triggered earnout share tranches at $15/$17 (Jan 13). Cap tables can mute contract signals. Does services SKU scaling win - or dilution + lumpy procurement Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014078149546614848 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014095666453360881 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014078149546614848 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014095666453360881"
X Link 2026-01-21T22:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"In a modular world end users can pay L2 sequencers and never touch L1 fees directly. Thats the leakage risk - L1 only wins if rollup data posting demand shows up as sustained base-layer economics. So the question for $ETH isnt are L2s growing Its whether higher data-fee demand becomes materially higher burn/validator rewards (soon enough to change expectations) or whether L1 stays economically quiet even as the stack gets busier. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014368146233364623 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014368146233364623"
X Link 2026-01-22T16:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"These are already-believed AI infra winners - so the only surprise left is execution. $ASML reports Jan [--]. Vertiv $VRT lives or dies on backlog conversion. onsemi $ON on utilization + buybacks. Scarcity premium holds - or cycle reset hits first Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014738287295074759 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014738287295074759"
X Link 2026-01-23T20:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Palladyne AI is pivoting from pure autonomy software into a vertically integrated defense mini-prime. New avionics + machining assets add backlog and capital intensity reshaping the risk/reward vs software-only robotics. More in the weekly update Autonomy software is getting crowded. What is rarer is a small AI company choosing to own the metal as well as the models. Palladyne AI is an example worth watching. Historically it was a niche embodiedAI software play with platforms like IQ for industrial robots Pilot for drones and SwarmOS for swarms. Most revenue came from development contracts"
X Link 2025-12-11T19:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Highlight - @Jabil $JBL is shipping into AI data centers (FY26 Q1 beat + raised outlook) yet still trades like cyclical assembly. Paid power/cooling integration + compliance or build-to-print bursts More --- $JBL is shipping into AI data-center buildouts but it still gets valued like a cyclical assemblerunless higher-value power/cooling integration becomes a paid repeatable product. This week added a real signal: Jabils fiscal [----] Q1 (reported Dec [--] 2025) beat expectations and management raised its fiscal [----] outlook reiterating strong Intelligent Infrastructure demand across cloud data"
X Link 2026-01-05T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"AI exposure value capture: $MPWR is M.I.N.D. 18th %ile (Upside Compression 14th) - hyperscalers/ODMs can always standardize rack power. Open question: can $MPWR / $AMBA / $PATH add paid attach - or get bundled More --- Enterprise AI spend can be accelerating while value capture is consolidating elsewhere - toward whoever owns the bundle and the switching costs. This week three very different AI exposure names shared the same warning signal: Monolithic Power Systems sat at M.I.N.D. 18th percentile (with Upside Compression 14.8th percentile) a setup where adoption can rise but pricing power may"
X Link 2026-01-10T20:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"MRD can scale fast and still not compound if reimbursement is the governor. Natera $NTRA prelim: FY2025 rev $2.3B + cash inflows $100M with record sequential MRD unit growth in Q4. Feb call: durable cadence or prognostic-only caps Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014366590515687537 https://t.co/ma4Zo8sLOm https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014366590515687537 https://t.co/ma4Zo8sLOm"
X Link 2026-01-22T19:57Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"AI exposure can be real and still not compound. Exhibit: $FN and $RMBS report Feb [--] [----] - a clean read on utilization + platform timing. Whats easy to miss: $RMBS sits at ATH. Do these become must-have sockets - or get integrated/dual-sourced Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014738724547149864 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014738724547149864"
X Link 2026-01-23T22:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$ICE and the Regime Shift: Settlement wants 24/7 speed. Regulation wants 24/7 trust. ICE/NYSE disclosed a tokenized securities platform concept: 24/7 trading on-chain settlement stablecoin funding (subject to approvals). Scalable regulated rails - or a permanent walled-garden pilot Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016191848537293263 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016191848537293263"
X Link 2026-01-27T17:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Dual-platform quantum widens the story - and doubles the proof burden. $QBTS closed the Quantum Circuits acquisition on 20th Jan. Qubits [----] (Jan 27-28) is the next roadmap moment. Dated SKUs + attested benchmarks by Feb [----] or still services-first Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016194479519367448 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016194479519367448"
X Link 2026-01-27T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"AI chip ramps dont fail on GPUs - they fail on permissioned lithography throughput. $ASML (1/28) printed a step-up in Q4 order intake + a higher year-end backlog and guided [----] revenue above FY2025. Is the constraint licensing - or shipment throughput See: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016910412500127810 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016910412500127810"
X Link 2026-01-29T16:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"AI datacom demand can be real while revenue stays gated by yields. This week $COHR set its Feb [--] [----] earnings date - the next hard checkpoint. Does it quantify constrained-step output/yield progress or does optics stay in allocation mode Read the article https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017274675693555959 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017274675693555959"
X Link 2026-01-30T16:33Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Whats easy to miss: this isnt just risk-on/risk-off. Partner-backed scaling can reduce the time penalty of long build cycles while market-funded scaling gets repriced each time terms tighten. The open question is whether $JOBY final coupon/conversion premium (and any new $NNOX / $SPIR disclosures) reads like capital loosening - or just a higher price for time. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017399110631150058 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017399110631150058"
X Link 2026-01-31T00:46Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Whats easy to miss: in optics demand is not the same as shipments. A small change in yield at a constrained step can dominate how fast backlog turns into revenue. So the question into Feb [--] is simple: does $COHR give specific evidence that constrained capacity is easing (output yields lead times) or do they stay supply-limited as customers push harder on dual-sourcing https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017399280072593822 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017399280072593822"
X Link 2026-01-31T00:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"The AI rollout is increasingly a change-control problem: permissions approvals rollback and audit trails across regulated workflows. Thats why governance layers can matter as much as model quality. But the gating question for $ZS is still practical: can it add this control without adding friction (latency false positives workflow breakage) or does it get bundled and treated like a checkbox https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017399406610571363 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017399406610571363"
X Link 2026-01-31T00:47Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Whats easy to miss with $ASML is that backlog up is only half the story - the other half is whether those tools can be shipped installed and kept running (services and uptime are part of the gate not an afterthought). If this gets interesting its likely via disclosures - the 2/25 annual reports and any export-control updates should clarify whether the binding constraint is tightening permissioning or whether supplier throughput is enabling (not capping) deliveries. Which one do you think bites first https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017399522339787012"
X Link 2026-01-31T00:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Whats easy to miss is who buys indoor delivery: operators and property managers. When unit economics are explicit procurement friction drops and partners can pitch deployments as a predictable opex line item. But $SERV still has to earn repeatable permissioning and utilization city by city. Do we see durable approvals and multi-site awards or does the rollout stay episodic https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017640735718449534 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2017640735718449534"
X Link 2026-01-31T16:46Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Capital-Intensity Risk EasesExcept for Bitcoin Capital-intensity risk is splitting AI and crypto names. Relay Therapeutics Quantum Computing Inc. SentinelOne and Red Cat all have clearer funding or asset-light models while Bitcoins low-fee security budget keeps long-run costs a key open risk. More in update Capital intensity is becoming a quiet dividing line between AIera names that can fund their roadmaps and those that carry structural cost-of-security risk. In this weeks work we looked at Relay Therapeutics Quantum Computing Inc. SentinelOne Red Cat Holdings and the Bitcoin network through"
X Link 2025-12-13T23:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Segment News - Autonomy credibility is rising while AI hardware gets priced colder. Jan [--] update: Aurora $AUR M.I.N.D. trend improving as Nebius $NBIS deteriorates and Jabil $JBL sits near highs. Do deployments scale before infra proves margin/financing stability --- Autonomy is getting more believable - at the same time hardware and infrastructure are getting valued more conservatively. In the 2026-01-14 weekly update one under-discussed detail was the split happening inside AI itself: autonomy execution confidence improved while infra and hardware terminal multiple assumptions were"
X Link 2026-01-18T18:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Strong structure weak belief - because conversion is gated. Timers this month: $META reports Jan 28; $EQIX reports Feb 11; Cosmos Hub targets Token Factory mainnet in early Feb. Fork: do we get auditable fees/power/ROIor more scale without legible economics Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014737713300451342 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2014737713300451342"
X Link 2026-01-23T18:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Long contracts de-risk power - until market rules change. $VST signed 20-year nuclear agreements with @Meta (Jan 9) then priced $2.25B senior secured notes (Jan 12) for a 5.5GW gas acquisition. Does policy let tightness be contracted or capped Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016193450899866111 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016193450899866111"
X Link 2026-01-27T19:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Strong structure lagging belief: $ZS launched new enterprise AI security capabilities on 1/27. The under-discussed part is it looks like an inline permission layer for agents. Does paid attach show up soon - or do buyers wait for incident-free proof (and keep procurement cautious) Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016911495884681538 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016941663730749782 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2016911495884681538 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016941663730749782"
X Link 2026-01-29T18:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Risk news: Deep tech can be right on the tech and still lose on sequencing. This week: $JOBY announced proposed common + convertible offerings targeting $1B while our risk lens moved opposite on $NNOX vs $AUR. Does this capital gate reopen - or tighten into dilution See: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017275632032641276 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017275632032641276"
X Link 2026-01-30T17:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$SERV can get more financeable on paper and still fail to scale - because sidewalks are permissioned. Exhibit: 2026-01-20 SERV announced the Diligent Robotics deal (Q1 close expected). Open question: do programmatic awards / long-duration approvals show up next [--] quarters - or not Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017398334240264438 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017398334240264438"
X Link 2026-01-31T15:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Capability vs repeatability is still the real quantum bottleneck. D-Wave $QBTS closed Quantum Circuits (10.43M shares + $250M cash) then announced a $20M FAU Advantage2 commitment thats subject to Florida public-entity requirements. Clears procurement fast - or stays a headline Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017644587754607032 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2017644587754607032"
X Link 2026-02-01T15:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Last Economy Watch: AI capex can scale faster than AI power can get permitted. Meta $META guided [----] capex to $115B$135B - while Georgia HB [----] would pause new data centers until Mar [----] (OK SB [----] to Nov 2029). Does this stay local or spread into a multi-state throttle Read the Last Economy Watch article: Also read today's article on "Low/Low Quadrant" risks $AAOI $APLD and $SITM: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018122326399996101 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018121034856321481 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018122326399996101"
X Link 2026-02-02T15:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"AI-adjacent value capture. $APLD announced a 15-year 200MW investment-grade hyperscaler lease (Jan 7). Fork: do lease terms + project finance detail show up soon - or does the capital stack absorb most of the economics Read the article: Also read today's Last Economy Watch article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018121034856321481 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018122326399996101 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018122326399996101 https://t.co/RSrIYsJyHv https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018121034856321481 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018122326399996101"
X Link 2026-02-02T16:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"The under-discussed part isnt can the truck drive itself - its whether partners can operationalize it on a calendar while Aurora keeps the bridge funded. Aurora reported $87m cash as of 2025-09-30 so timing slips can quickly become financing posture questions. If Feb [--] doesnt come with dated lane sequencing + partner workflow details does the narrative revert to still a project for $AUR https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018717892712538372 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018717892712538372"
X Link 2026-02-03T16:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Certification can be real while the equity breaks the story. $JOBY just floated a $1B stock + convertible raise (1/28) with an Ohio facility deal outside date 2/27/26. Does this bridge buy time cleanly - or does the capital stack become the gate See: Also today: $AUR Timer Started: Feb [--] Must Turn Progress Into Schedule-Credible Commercialization: $CLS $1B AI capacity build raises the only question that matters: is it already reserved https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018711598102372616 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018710989831868462"
X Link 2026-02-03T18:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"AWS cant monetize ordered capacity. It can only monetize energized capacity. $AMZN just guided $200B capex for [----]. Does AWS translate watts into governed revenue fast enough - or does it become multi-year cash drag Read the article: Also today: Last Economy Watch - Capex Surges but the Binding Constraint Is Still Power and Permissioning - Regime shift: time-to-power is becoming the moat (PWR MPWR HPE SITM SDGR) - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019678327926354254 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019676830622707975 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019677558262878266"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"AI features are getting cheap but pricing power isnt. Feb 5: we started scoring software on obsolescence risk vs durable advantage. Under-discussed threat: bundling into Microsoft $MSFT / Google $GOOG / Amazon $AMZN. Do switching costs win - or does bundling Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019681579250114906 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019681579250114906"
X Link 2026-02-07T16:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Demand can be real but deployment still stalls if permissioning shifts mid-build. Jan 15: case-by-case export licenses for H200/MI325X-class chips to China/Macau. Does this stabilize into rules-of-road - or stay episodic enough to force rebuilds $NVDA $AMBA $ZS $NTRA Read the article: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2015846155985523155 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015907611535933504 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2015846155985523155 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2015907611535933504"
X Link 2026-01-26T22:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Last Economy Watch - AI demand looks loud but scaling still runs into physics + politics. This week: $AMZN reset expectations with an about $200B [----] capex plan (Big Tech $660B total). Open question: does this become energized capacity - or do power/permitting + financing force staged rollouts Read the article: Also today: Amazons $200B AI Buildout Hits the Only KPI That Matters: Energized Capacity - Regime shift: time-to-power is becoming the moat (PWR MPWR HPE SITM SDGR) - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019678327926354254 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019677558262878266"
X Link 2026-02-06T15:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Gen3 can improve $BKSY product but procurement timing + capex cadence can still keep the business lumpy. Feb 3: sevenfigure Gen3 assuredservices wins with a new international defense customer. Feb [--] call: utilization + renewals - or just oneoffs More: Also today: $COIN Network moat vs the [--] rulebooks constraint - Nevada lands days before Feb [--] - Speculative Upside Options: One Gate One Timer One Proof Point $MSTR $NTLA $CRNC - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021983414422057245 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021982848329429404"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$BEAM sickle-cell durability looks stronger but adoption is still gated by conditioning + center/payer ops. Jan [--] (JPM): do we get explicit regulatory timing and clean in vivo liver progressor more timeline drift --- Beam Therapeutics has strengthening clinical durability signalsbut adoption is still gated by conditioning toxicity transplant-center operations and payer friction. On Dec [--] [----] Beam Therapeutics presented an expanded BEACON dataset in sickle cell disease: [--] patients with durability out to [--] months. Mature follow-up like this can act as platform credibility evidencebecause it"
X Link 2026-01-02T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"ADAS demand can be real while the calendar still breaks expectations. Jan 22: Mobileye $MBLY guided FY26 revenue $1.90B$1.98B. Whats easy to miss: program win production readiness. Do higher-content U.S. OEM programs clear that gate in [--] quarters - or slip again Read the article: Also today: AI can generate drug ideas instantly - but who can actually run the lab fast enough https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019076282475216949 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019076875369529671 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019092334970106274"
X Link 2026-02-04T16:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Risk news - AI capacity is being treated like a capex decision - but rate cases and permits can veto it. Easy to miss: the regulator is your local power bill. Axios (Feb 5): data-center power-cost bill. Same week we raised permissioning risk in $PWR / $HPE. Template - or fight-by-fight Read the article: Also today: Last Economy Watch - Capex Surges but the Binding Constraint Is Still Power and Permissioning - Amazons $200B AI Buildout Hits the Only KPI That Matters: Energized Capacity - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019677558262878266"
X Link 2026-02-06T17:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Policy signals for Coinbase $COIN are splitting: Nevadas Gaming Control Board filed a civil action tied to event contracts (Feb 3) then the CFTC withdrew prior event-contract steps (Feb 4). Does this converge into one rulebook - or fracture state-by-state More: Also today: Speculative Upside Options: One Gate One Timer One Proof Point $MSTR $NTLA $CRNC - $BKSY Gen-3: Assured outcomes only matters if Feb [--] makes renewals and utilization testable - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021983821311394240 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021983414422057245"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Demand is signed but bills are real. $ORCL just paired a $25B notes deal with a $20B ATM and a $45B-$50B [----] gross-proceeds plan. Does this become energized OCI capacity before financing costs bite - or do power/commissioning + utilization slip More: Also today: $SPIR $AISP $SERV: Edge AI failure mode: contracts are real but integration + runway are the gate - $SPIR: The M.I.N.D. story is intact - but the capital financing gate is now the whole debate - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2022355522276692326 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2022354964266533152"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Compliance is becoming a real time-to-scale bottleneck: safety certification export controls and AI/privacy governance add cost + elongate launch cycles (frontier hardware + AI workflows). We flagged this risk rising for $ACHR $OUST $FIVN. More in the weekly update Compliance drag is risingand its becoming a real timeline risk in frontier hardware and AI-enabled workflows. In our weekly update we flagged that certification/safety export controls/tariffs and privacy/AI governance increasingly act like a hidden tax on scaling. Not because any one rule is fatal but because the combined burden"
X Link 2025-12-20T00:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Autonomous trucking isnt stuck on demos - its stuck on dates. $AUR has a Feb [--] [----] business review that should either anchor a real commercialization calendar. Easy to miss: its McLeod TMS integration is already done. Do we get dated partner-backed milestones - or a vague deck Read the article: Also today: $CLS $1B AI capacity build raises the only question that matters: is it already reserved $JOBY gate moved: runway terms now matter as much as FAA progress: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018712125930442760 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018711598102372616"
X Link 2026-02-03T16:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Hyperscaler wins only compound if the capacity is qualified and spoken for. This week Celestica $CLS lifted [----] capex to $1.0B (6% of its $17B revenue outlook) ahead of a Jan [--] call. Easy to miss: cash + working-cap hit first. Reserved capacity - or self-funded hope Read the article: Also today: $AUR Timer Started: Feb [--] Must Turn Progress Into Schedule-Credible Commercialization: $JOBY gate moved: runway terms now matter as much as FAA progress: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018712125930442760 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2018710989831868462"
X Link 2026-02-03T17:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Segment News - TechBio is getting reranked up - even while the trend still looks messy. 1/28 weekly update: $DNA $RXRX $SDGR $RLAY moved up in 5y EV ranks as autonomous labs + compute-first discovery but M.I.N.D. trends were flagged deteriorating. Do they prove paid lab utilization by mid-26 - or stay demo + burn Read the article: Also today: Mobileyes Tech Isnt the Problem - Its the Production Calendar: https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019076875369529671 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019076282475216949 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2019076875369529671"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"In-line security is unforgiving: one bad integration can stall buyers. Zscaler $ZS bought SquareX (Feb 5) ahead of Feb [--] earnings to push policy into the standard browser (where tokens live). Paid attach by mid-2026 or roadmap slide + latency tax Read the article: Also today: $AUR - The hard part of self-driving trucks is everything after it drives - Snowflakes $200M OpenAI bet isnt about models - its about who owns the permissions ledger - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2020985215364235666 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2020984188216992155"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Snowflake $SNOW wants to be the enterprise agent gate - but trust/uptime is part of the product. Exhibit: $200M multi-year OpenAI partnership (Feb 2) + two service incidents in late Jan. Feb 25: governed tollbooth or checkbox feature Read the article: Also today: $AUR - The hard part of self-driving trucks is everything after it drives - Zscaler just moved into the browser - now it has to prove it wont slow the enterprise down - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2020984631903047693 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2020984188216992155"
X Link 2026-02-10T17:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"The modern Industrial Revolution is not about better tools - it is about the collapse of coordination cognition and energy constraints and the hardest part is believing that this matters before the outputs look impressive. - Cognition cost per decision is collapsing - Coordination overhead is collapsing - Capital is substituting for skilled judgment - Energy available per unit compute will rise (eventually unevenly) - Human labor is becoming a latency bottleneck not a value source https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021393813085016127 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021393813085016127"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"A hold lifted headline can hide the real gate: can investigators run the monitoring at scale On Jan [--] the FDA lifted $NTLA MAGNITUDE-2 (ATTRv-PN) hold with enhanced liver monitoring + a higher enrollment target. Fast restart - or slow grind while ATTR-CM stays stuck More: Also today: $CRM (Feb 25) $PANW (Feb 17) $RXRX (1H26) - when durable advantage has to hit the line items - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021441985857585576 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Strong structure lagging belief: $PANW reports Feb [--] and $CRM Feb [--]. The proof for AI wins has to show up in audited line items. Do we get explicit agent/AI attach disclosure soon - or do pilots stay bundled and belief stays stuck More: Also today: $NTLA: The gate moved - now prove enhanced monitoring can scale across real trial sites - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021441985857585576 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362 https://t.co/UWYBebl6mI https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021441985857585576 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Whats easy to miss is the operational math: enhanced liver monitoring plus a higher enrollment target means more workflow per patient and more patients to find. So the next proof point isnt a press release its auditable trial throughput (sites activated patients dosed). Does MAGNITUDE-2 convert permission into real execution quickly - or does the monitoring burden (and the still-held ATTR-CM program) keep confidence as the binding constraint for $NTLA https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021636778151780560 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021636778151780560"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Driverless proof isnt the bottleneck for Aurora $AUR - repeatable ops are. Feb [--] [----] business review call is the checkpoint. Easy to miss: the Jan [--] McLeod TMS integration is a real distribution wedge. Feb [--] = lane-by-lane observer-free milestones or timeline reframed Read the article: Also today: Zscaler just moved into the browser - now it has to prove it wont slow the enterprise down - Snowflakes $200M OpenAI bet isnt about models - its about who owns the permissions ledger - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2020985215364235666"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Whats easy to miss with $ORCL is the timing mismatch: interest and dilution risk start immediately but revenue only shows up once clusters are powered commissioned and customers ramp real workloads. So the next earnings package matters less for AI demand talk and more for commissioning and power timelines plus any disclosure of ATM usage cadence - do we get specificity or does delivery stay vague https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022356059097305467 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022356059097305467"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"The modern Industrial Revolution is not about better tools - it is about the collapse of coordination cognition and energy constraints and the hardest part is believing that this matters before the outputs look impressive. - Cognition cost per decision is collapsing - Coordination overhead is collapsing - Capital is substituting for skilled judgment - Energy available per unit compute will rise (eventually unevenly) - Human labor is becoming a latency bottleneck not a value source https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021393813085016127 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021393813085016127"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Contracts make defense/space edge AI feel inevitable but integration + runway still decide survival. This week our edge segment moved down (high confidence): $SPIR [----] $SERV [----] $AISP [--]. Do they prove repeatable deployments in [--] qtrs or pivot to financing talk More: Also today: ORCLs capital gate moved - now OCI has to prove commissioning speed before financing costs dominate - $SPIR: The M.I.N.D. story is intact - but the capital financing gate is now the whole debate - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2022355522276692326 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2022354247183143138"
X Link 2026-02-13T18:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Whats easy to miss is that deployment often means months of bespoke integration work plus governance and defense compliance gates (CMMC/DFARS-type readiness) before programs can scale beyond pilots. If $AISP quantifies shipment/acceptance and early-2026 invoicing SERV posts clean post-deal integration/pro forma clarity or SPIR takes credible runway actions the narrative could flip fast - if not does the cash-flow wall stay the binding constraint"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Contracts can sound like software; financing behaves like hardware. This week $SPIR slid [--] - [--] in our screen as capital financing stayed the dominant constraint (weighted risk=0.615). Is this a temporary liquidity squeeze - or a structural cant self-fund next capacity step signal More: Also today: ORCLs capital gate moved - now OCI has to prove commissioning speed before financing costs dominate - $SPIR $AISP $SERV: Edge AI failure mode: contracts are real but integration + runway are the gate - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2022354964266533152"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:06Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Whats under-discussed in space-data names is how time to commissioning becomes balance-sheet leverage. Spire launched [--] satellites on 2026-01-12 but the value shows up later - any slip effectively extends the cash conversion cycle. With $96.75m cash/marketable securities reported as of 2025-09-30 and Q3 FCF (CFO-capex) around -$20.4m the fork is whether $SPIR can show a contract-backed non-dilutive runway extension (or clear cost-down) in the next 1-2 quarters - or whether liquidity stays the gating narrative"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Demand is signed but bills are real. $ORCL just paired a $25B notes deal with a $20B ATM and a $45B-$50B [----] gross-proceeds plan. Does this become energized OCI capacity before financing costs bite - or do power/commissioning + utilization slip More: Also today: $SPIR $AISP $SERV: Edge AI failure mode: contracts are real but integration + runway are the gate - $SPIR: The M.I.N.D. story is intact - but the capital financing gate is now the whole debate - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2022355522276692326 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2022354964266533152"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"ORCLs capital gate moved - now OCI has to prove commissioning speed before financing costs dominate Financing can remove one bottleneck and create another. Oracle (ORCL) just attached real money to its AI infrastructure plan but the same move raises fixed obligations while customers only pay when http://x.com/i/article/2022353700241707009 http://x.com/i/article/2022353700241707009"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:56Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Whats easy to miss with $ORCL is the timing mismatch: interest and dilution risk start immediately but revenue only shows up once clusters are powered commissioned and customers ramp real workloads. So the next earnings package matters less for AI demand talk and more for commissioning and power timelines plus any disclosure of ATM usage cadence - do we get specificity or does delivery stay vague https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022356059097305467 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022356059097305467"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$SPIR: The M.I.N.D. story is intact - but the capital financing gate is now the whole debate Space services can be sold as data subscriptions but the business can still be gated by capital timing. This week Spire Global (SPIR) fell from rank [--] to [--] in our weekly screen and its forecast http://x.com/i/article/2022355040145653760 http://x.com/i/article/2022355040145653760"
X Link 2026-02-13T17:01Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$SPIR $AISP $SERV: Edge AI failure mode: contracts are real but integration + runway are the gate Edge AI at the point of work looks inevitable in defense space and robotics. But the uncomfortable tension is that deployments can still stall for non-technical reasons: integration cost http://x.com/i/article/2022354321338437632 http://x.com/i/article/2022354321338437632"
X Link 2026-02-13T16:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Gen3 can improve $BKSY product but procurement timing + capex cadence can still keep the business lumpy. Feb 3: sevenfigure Gen3 assuredservices wins with a new international defense customer. Feb [--] call: utilization + renewals - or just oneoffs More: Also today: $COIN Network moat vs the [--] rulebooks constraint - Nevada lands days before Feb [--] - Speculative Upside Options: One Gate One Timer One Proof Point $MSTR $NTLA $CRNC - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021983414422057245 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021982848329429404"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Whats easy to miss: assured services is a pricing/contract claim not a camera spec. It only compounds if customers keep paying for reliability (coverage + low latency) and if that outcome is measurable inside secure workflows. So Feb [--] is less about celebrating wins more about testability - do we get a clear ramp/utilization narrative and renewal signals or does budget timing and liquidity/capex planning remain the binding constraint for $BKSY"
X Link 2026-02-12T22:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"These arent AI-Era stories yet - theyre calendar gates. Strategy $MSTR has a cash dividend payable Feb 28; Intellia $NTLA got an FDA hold lift Jan 27; Cerence $CRNC filed its 10Q Feb [--]. Do the next disclosures show auditable progress - or that the constraint still binds More: Also today: BlackSky Gen-3: Assured outcomes only matters if Feb [--] makes renewals and utilization testable - $COINs Network moat vs the [--] rulebooks constraint - Nevada lands days before Feb [--] - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021982848329429404 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021983821311394240"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Whats under-discussed is how proof differs by gate. For $CRNC Q1 strength includes a $49.5m patent license payment - so the real question is whether cash generation and OEM signals still look durable when results normalize. Is the next update about repeatable throughput or another quarter that only works with one-offs"
X Link 2026-02-12T18:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Policy signals for Coinbase $COIN are splitting: Nevadas Gaming Control Board filed a civil action tied to event contracts (Feb 3) then the CFTC withdrew prior event-contract steps (Feb 4). Does this converge into one rulebook - or fracture state-by-state More: Also today: Speculative Upside Options: One Gate One Timer One Proof Point $MSTR $NTLA $CRNC - $BKSY Gen-3: Assured outcomes only matters if Feb [--] makes renewals and utilization testable - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021983821311394240 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021983414422057245"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Whats under-discussed is that permissioning can arrive through gaming enforcement not just financial regulators. If an app feature is framed as wagering a state board can seek injunction-style relief even while federal agencies reset their own rulemaking path. Feb [--] is the tell for $COIN: do they describe event contracts as a containable edge case or as a product surface that has to be redesigned around [--] jurisdictions - and if so does that slow the mix shift toward steadier subscription/services"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:31Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"BlackSky Gen-3: Assured outcomes only matters if Feb [--] makes renewals and utilization testable Gen-3 can make the product better but the business still breaks if procurement timing and financing cadence prevent a stable recurring service model. Exhibit A: on Feb [--] BlackSky announced multiple http://x.com/i/article/2021983465424711680 http://x.com/i/article/2021983465424711680"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Speculative Upside Options: One Gate One Timer One Proof Point (MSTR NTLA CRNC) The tension with option-like equities is that they can re-rate on one cleared constraint but they are also fragile because a single missed checkpoint can shut the window. This weeks most concrete http://x.com/i/article/2021982925261320192 http://x.com/i/article/2021982925261320192"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:23Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$COINs Network moat vs the [--] rulebooks constraint - Nevada lands days before Feb [--] Coinbase is trying to become boring market infrastructure - but U.S. permissioning still behaves like a patchwork. On Feb [--] the Nevada Gaming Control Board filed a civil enforcement action tied to http://x.com/i/article/2021982464311537669 http://x.com/i/article/2021982464311537669"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Strong structure lagging belief: $PANW reports Feb [--] and $CRM Feb [--]. The proof for AI wins has to show up in audited line items. Do we get explicit agent/AI attach disclosure soon - or do pilots stay bundled and belief stays stuck More: Also today: $NTLA: The gate moved - now prove enhanced monitoring can scale across real trial sites - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021441985857585576 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362 https://t.co/UWYBebl6mI https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021441985857585576 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$CRM (Feb 25) $PANW (Feb 17) $RXRX (1H26) - when durable advantage has to hit the line items The tension in AI investing is shifting from who demos best to who proves value in audited results. Exhibit: Palo Alto Networks reports on Feb [--] [----] and Salesforce reports on Feb [--] [----] - http://x.com/i/article/2021442075305410560 http://x.com/i/article/2021442075305410560"
X Link 2026-02-11T04:34Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Whats easy to miss: the AI era is moving from demos to procurement. Procurement teams increasingly want audit trails for AI actions and that pushes value toward whoever controls governed distribution (workflows) or in-line enforcement (security). So the near-term question is less who shipped the coolest agent and more who can report it cleanly. Does $CRM start separating attach and retention effects in a way finance teams can defend - or does the story stay qualitative for another cycle"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"A hold lifted headline can hide the real gate: can investigators run the monitoring at scale On Jan [--] the FDA lifted $NTLA MAGNITUDE-2 (ATTRv-PN) hold with enhanced liver monitoring + a higher enrollment target. Fast restart - or slow grind while ATTR-CM stays stuck More: Also today: $CRM (Feb 25) $PANW (Feb 17) $RXRX (1H26) - when durable advantage has to hit the line items - https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021441985857585576 https://x.com/NextArcResearch/status/2021442613526790362"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Whats easy to miss is the operational math: enhanced liver monitoring plus a higher enrollment target means more workflow per patient and more patients to find. So the next proof point isnt a press release its auditable trial throughput (sites activated patients dosed). Does MAGNITUDE-2 convert permission into real execution quickly - or does the monitoring burden (and the still-held ATTR-CM program) keep confidence as the binding constraint for $NTLA https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021636778151780560 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021636778151780560"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing

@NextArcResearch
/creator/twitter::NextArcResearch