# ![@NateSilver538 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::16017475.png) @NateSilver538 Nate Silver

Nate Silver posts on X about silver, election, in the, politics the most. They currently have [---------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::16017475/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::16017475/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [---------] +95%
- [--] Month [----------] +2%
- [--] Months [-----------] +56%
- [--] Year [-----------] -73%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::16017475/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::16017475/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -21%
- [--] Month [---] +59%
- [--] Months [---] +67%
- [--] Year [---] -57%

### Followers: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::16017475/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::16017475/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---------] -0.01%
- [--] Month [---------] -0.09%
- [--] Months [---------] -9.20%
- [--] Year [---------] -10%

### CreatorRank: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::16017475/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::16017475/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  #1801 [countries](/list/countries)  3.61% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  3.01% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  1.81% [stocks](/list/stocks)  1.2% [nba](/list/nba)  0.6% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  0.6% [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  0.6% [musicians](/list/musicians)  0.6%

**Social topic influence**
[silver](/topic/silver) #77, [election](/topic/election) 7.23%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 4.82%, [politics](/topic/politics) 3.61%, [ai](/topic/ai) #4145, [the world](/topic/the-world) 2.41%, [if you](/topic/if-you) 2.41%, [dems](/topic/dems) 1.81%, [white house](/topic/white-house) 1.81%, [super bowl](/topic/super-bowl) 1.81%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@genx975](/creator/undefined) [@jrzimbabwe](/creator/undefined) [@specialpuppy1](/creator/undefined) [@4intheflames](/creator/undefined) [@jonnachissus](/creator/undefined) [@galendruke](/creator/undefined) [@milansingh03](/creator/undefined) [@leisduch](/creator/undefined) [@greeknme](/creator/undefined) [@l_darkchocolate](/creator/undefined) [@mysticl](/creator/undefined) [@evelcrisis](/creator/undefined) [@bechhof](/creator/undefined) [@rexdouglass](/creator/undefined) [@conorsen](/creator/undefined) [@cwarzel](/creator/undefined) [@sekaikuromaku11](/creator/undefined) [@bayareanewlibs](/creator/undefined) [@danfriedman81](/creator/undefined) [@kasumin777](/creator/undefined)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"She shoulda picked Shapiro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2008195353695375688)  2026-01-05T15:14Z 3M followers, 3.4M engagements


"Just a quick newsletter today on the sad state of the Washington Post. This chart tells the story"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2016261552500789601)  2026-01-27T21:26Z 3M followers, 991K engagements


"Yeah this is a key point I made back in August when the conventional wisdom was that Democrats were doomed. More frequent (re)districting is good for a party (i.e. Dems) with a turnout advantage in midterm elections special elections Supreme Court elections and so on. I dont know how state law works in PA/MI/WI but if Dems win trifectas there this year they should push for mid-decade redistricting there to create Virginia-style imbalanced maps for [----]. This is the game Republicans want to play. I dont know how state law works in PA/MI/WI but if Dems win trifectas there this year they should"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2020237141565960310)  2026-02-07T20:44Z 3M followers, 168.8K engagements


"I'm pro-markets growth etc but these tech right guys are boring partisan dumbasses. Being vehemently against low-end immigration wasnt even one of my top five issues but this halftime show is changing my mind. Being vehemently against low-end immigration wasnt even one of my top five issues but this halftime show is changing my mind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2020684739619774819)  2026-02-09T02:22Z 3M followers, 474.8K engagements


"Since the "moderation wars" are heating up again I guess I'll repost this very deep dive I took on it from this summer. https://www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-on-models-moderation-and https://www.natesilver.net/p/real-talk-on-models-moderation-and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2018815394283487686)  2026-02-03T22:34Z 3M followers, 62.2K engagements


"Not a good heuristic Gerry when the owner of the product is worth $250B and wasn't delivering on core functions of what the product built an audience for. I am so upset that the product I value is struggling because its business is losing money that Im going to stop buying it so it will have even less money. I am so upset that the product I value is struggling because its business is losing money that Im going to stop buying it so it will have even less money"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2019306262094311529)  2026-02-05T07:05Z 3M followers, 186.1K engagements


"Two of the shittiest transit hubs in America I'd take the deal. For Grand Central and National no way. @PunchbowlNews PM: TRUMP WANTS HIS NAME ON DULLES PENN STATION Trump admin asked SCHUMER to support his renaming Washington-Dulles and Penn Station after TRUMP. TRUMP would release funding for Gateway project in exchange. THE BACKSTORY: https://t.co/218DPAWjih @PunchbowlNews PM: TRUMP WANTS HIS NAME ON DULLES PENN STATION Trump admin asked SCHUMER to support his renaming Washington-Dulles and Penn Station after TRUMP. TRUMP would release funding for Gateway project in exchange. THE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2019571884963295701)  2026-02-06T00:40Z 3M followers, 244.2K engagements


"I write like shit sometimes but actually bad advice writing bad and revising takes longer than chilling out and writing well once you're good and ready. the most liberating thing in the world is realizing you can just write it bad. you can write it bad and make it good later. does everyone know about this the most liberating thing in the world is realizing you can just write it bad. you can write it bad and make it good later. does everyone know about this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2019630605630140488)  2026-02-06T04:33Z 3M followers, 159.6K engagements


"https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-can-win-the-redistricting https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-can-win-the-redistricting"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2020237143197548655)  2026-02-07T20:44Z 3M followers, 60.4K engagements


"From today's post which I'll warn you gets nerdy about trying to put numbers behind this. Although being a centrist generally helps voters have to know what you stand for. They regard Bernie as closer to them ideologically than Harris for instance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2020954046123725119)  2026-02-09T20:12Z 3M followers, 66.1K engagements


"I recommend the W-S-O-P Method instead (play the World Series of Poker every year). An idea Im implementing in my life: The 1-6-4 Method. Popularized by entrepreneur and author Jesse Itzler its a foolproof way to make sure you always have fun planned throughout the year. [--]. Plan one big year-making event This is inspired by the Japanese concept of https://t.co/rr9gCrZmrq An idea Im implementing in my life: The 1-6-4 Method. Popularized by entrepreneur and author Jesse Itzler its a foolproof way to make sure you always have fun planned throughout the year. [--]. Plan one big year-making event"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2021071192351023452)  2026-02-10T03:58Z 3M followers, 190.3K engagements


"Maybe because they thought White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller would protect them by saying the civilians they killed while exercising their civil rights were "assassins" or "domestic terrorists" NEWS: White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller says officials are evaluating why Customs and Border Protection agents in Minneapolis may not have been following proper protocol before the fatal shooting of VA nurse Alex Pretti. In a statement to CNN Miller said the NEWS: White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller says officials are evaluating why Customs and Border"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2016371454435025150)  2026-01-28T04:43Z 3M followers, 511.4K engagements


"Democratic primary draft with @ClareMalone and @galendruke [--]. (Galen) Gavin [--]. (Nate) AOC [--]. (Clare) Mayor Pete FYI I'd probably also have taken Newsom #1 if I'd had the top pick. These are my predictions of who Ds will like not who I personally think is most electable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2016956419812007969)  2026-01-29T19:27Z 3M followers, 95.2K engagements


"Wrote an essay that pushes back against some of the pessimism I've seen about American democracy. This is going to be one of those times when I'd ask for you to read the whole argument rather than trying to summarize it: https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-discount-american-democracys https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-discount-american-democracys"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2018367315637621145)  2026-02-02T16:54Z 3M followers, 158.3K engagements


"Failing that maybe make some testable predictions If your thesis is right where is the conventional wisdom (e.g. as embodied by models or prediction markets) wrong"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2018815398410592274)  2026-02-03T22:34Z 3M followers, 43.6K engagements


"Only trade with truly A++ Luka-like shock value (not necessarily lopsidedness) would be Giannis to the Thunder. Im hearing a big trade could be going down tonight. Out of left field. Make sure your notifications are on. Im hearing a big trade could be going down tonight. Out of left field. Make sure your notifications are on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2018867420488757623)  2026-02-04T02:01Z 3M followers, 250.1K engagements


"The cuts at the Post are devastating and my heart goes out to everyone affected. To state the obvious there's no reason to be sympathetic to Bezos or any of the other leaders there. The paper's influence really cratered following the editorial shifts in 2024/25"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2019156467388149971)  2026-02-04T21:09Z 3M followers, 499K engagements


"(This chart is from our newsletter last week. Was hoping things wouldn't be quite *this* bad though.) https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-sad-and-self-inflicted-decline https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-sad-and-self-inflicted-decline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2019156469753810950)  2026-02-04T21:09Z 3M followers, 59.2K engagements


"Busy day but our Super Bowl preview is out. 🏈 The Seahawks and the Pats started at +6000 and +8000 to win the Super Bowl respectively. Despite being among the most unlikely champs they're probably closer to underrated than overrated. But there's a lot to consider:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2019173242297283012)  2026-02-04T22:16Z 3M followers, 60K engagements


"Here's the result of [-----] simulations of the final score LOL. (There's an EXCEL version of this in the article that's actually legible.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2019173244956459236)  2026-02-04T22:16Z 3M followers, 54.8K engagements


"Whole preview here: https://www.natesilver.net/p/super-bowl-lx-preview-odds-squares-scores-silver-bulletin https://www.natesilver.net/p/super-bowl-lx-preview-odds-squares-scores-silver-bulletin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2019173247569268740)  2026-02-04T22:16Z 3M followers, 48K engagements


"Well the question answers itself. If you're disinterested disengaged distracted and worth $250B you don't have any incentive to care. Slashing the staff takes less work than finding a buyer which among other things requires taking an ego hit since its an admission you failed. Still baffled: why would a disinterested disengaged distracted @washingtonpost owner hire a seemingly disinterested disengaged distracted CEO suffer perpetual criticism and $ loss Lots of rich people would buy it and even more execs would gladly run it. Show me a single Still baffled: why would a disinterested disengaged"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2019266752107213196)  2026-02-05T04:28Z 3M followers, 175.8K engagements


"https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-liberalism-and-leftism-are-increasingly https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-liberalism-and-leftism-are-increasingly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2020591215574741104)  2026-02-08T20:11Z 3M followers, 62.7K engagements


"Late-night newsletter about AIs potential impact on politics. Perhaps this is obvious but Im skeptical that well see rapid AI progress without extreme disruption to the political system"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2021443842269118942)  2026-02-11T04:39Z 3M followers, 84.3K engagements


"Everybody is too risk-averse to write the "actually Trump is terrible at politics" hot take but it will instantly be presumed to be *incredibly obvious* if polls are roughly correct on Nov. 3"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1313240398647746566)  2020-10-05T22:11Z 3M followers, 18.9K engagements


"Thinking ChatGPT is useless is midwit. It's a magic box that answers any question you ask it from levels ranging from modestly coherent to extremely proficient. If you haven't bothered to figure it out to derive some utility out of it then you're just being lazy tbh"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1883272629425193183)  2025-01-25T21:55Z 3M followers, 6.3M engagements


"I'd be a terrible presidential candidate but might be able to win 45-48 states on a platform of making every NFL game available on one app"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2010894825605001699)  2026-01-13T02:01Z 3M followers, 386.1K engagements


"It's the difference between "WE ARE IN AN ACUTE CRISIS RIGHT NOW AND ON THE BRINK OF AN AUTHORITARIAN TAKEOVER" and "yeah this shit's bad but Trump's unpopular he chickens out a lot and at least the economy is OK hopefully Democrats win in 2026/28""  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2014007366782460102)  2026-01-21T16:09Z 3M followers, 149.1K engagements


"Shockingly the Bluesky predictions that we'd be going to war with Europe were incorrect (*so far* anyway)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2014069021994254442)  2026-01-21T20:14Z 3M followers, 158.6K engagements


"Our generic ballot tracker just launched Currently D +5.3. That margin has been slowly but steadily growing over time. Would very likely be enough for them to take the House. Adding another 2-3 points would considerably improve their chances in the Senate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2014380341104910436)  2026-01-22T16:51Z 3M followers, 158.6K engagements


"@conorsen I mean it's literally the people who thought Hillary Biden and Harris were good candidates. OTOH might be that even a replacement-level Dem starts out with a 50/50 chance against Vance or whomever"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2014754447692341251)  2026-01-23T17:37Z 3M followers, 248.9K engagements


"California has [--] million people why does it have worse candidates than you'd get for Premier of Saskatchewan CALIFORNIA POLL: Governor (top two advance) - Katie Porter internal 🟥 Chad Bianco - 18% 🟥 Steve Hilton - 17% 🟦 Katie Porter - 14% 🟦 Eric Swalwell - 11% 🟦 Tom Steyer - 8% 🟦 Xavier Becerra - 6% 🟦 Matt Mahan - 5% 🟦 A. Villaraigosa - 2% 🟦 T. Thurmond - 1% PPP (Dem) https://t.co/VEtmXAFNks CALIFORNIA POLL: Governor (top two advance) - Katie Porter internal 🟥 Chad Bianco - 18% 🟥 Steve Hilton - 17% 🟦 Katie Porter - 14% 🟦 Eric Swalwell - 11% 🟦 Tom Steyer - 8% 🟦 Xavier Becerra -"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2014901254531535069)  2026-01-24T03:21Z 3M followers, 452.5K engagements


"Approval on immigration had been a comparative bright spot for Trump. But there has been a persistent decline over the past few months and today almost certainly makes that worse. He's losing the normies not just the libs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2015166181833867713)  2026-01-24T20:53Z 3M followers, 463.6K engagements


"This might be a romantic view actually voters are a lot smarter than JD Vance and Stephen Miller think they are. They didn't get away with this gaslighting in the Renee Good case and now they're trying it again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2015169173677093372)  2026-01-24T21:05Z 3M followers, 211.7K engagements


"Literally [--] hours apart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2015202393596535223)  2026-01-24T23:17Z 3M followers, 352.2K engagements


"This guy is such a joke it's one terrible opinion after another concealed by pretentious writing get the fuck out of here with "sinuously". Ironically academic I guess. She drove her car at a cop. He pulled a gun on the cops. Watch the way the lib without denying these fundamental facts sinuously works around them She drove her car at a cop. He pulled a gun on the cops. Watch the way the lib without denying these fundamental facts sinuously works around them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2015253358945157152)  2026-01-25T02:40Z 3M followers, 617.7K engagements


"Wrote about Minneapolis. Obviously I have a strong visceral reaction to this. But trying to stick to public opinion in this newsletter. Its clear that many Americans feel the same way"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2015485723600687107)  2026-01-25T18:03Z 3M followers, 486.3K engagements


"Heavy overlap with the ones who were on the tariff train. worth tracking which right wing vcs are out of touch enough to get on the pro-ICE train worth tracking which right wing vcs are out of touch enough to get on the pro-ICE train"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2015585296281108677)  2026-01-26T00:39Z 3M followers, 240.6K engagements


"Katie are you objecting to the "liberal" part or the "democracy" part "Liberal" doesn't mean "left" especially when preceded by "classical". It certainly doesn't mean woke. Tbh though it seems like it's the whole democracy thing that bothers you and Stephen Miller. Co-Founder of Anthropic: My deep loyalty is to the principles of classical liberal democracy. If this is what they say publicly this is how their AI model is programmed. Woke and deeply leftist ideology is what they want you to rely upon. Co-Founder of Anthropic: My deep loyalty is to the principles of classical liberal democracy."  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2015876258962313624)  2026-01-26T19:55Z 3M followers, 622.2K engagements


"I was very curious what QBERT would do with Maye's start and it thought he was actually pretty good. [----] rating for the game average is [--]. Huge credit for his rushing performance and heavy adjustments for facing a really good defense on the road in terrible weather"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2015896954664857859)  2026-01-26T21:17Z 3M followers, 98.4K engagements


"Also while Darnold's QBERT rating is above-average (86.8) he ranks 108th out of [---] starting Super Bowl QBs all-time going into the game. More Super Bowl stuff TK later but the QBERT page is ready for now. https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2015897395989557478)  2026-01-26T21:19Z 3M followers, 60.5K engagements


"OK this one makes even clearer that the problem isn't that she doesn't understand "liberalism". It's that she doesn't care for the Constitution. Katie Miller is a former WH spokesperson current advisor to Elon Musk wife of Stephen Miller. https://x.com/KatieMiller/status/2015776930167960062s=20 OPEN AI EXEC https://x.com/KatieMiller/status/2015776930167960062s=20 OPEN AI EXEC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2015929218585010371)  2026-01-26T23:25Z 3M followers, 125.1K engagements


"ELWAY is updated after the conference championships You can find our Super Bowl odds here. We'll have a dedicated Super Bowl article coming with more analysis but with an off week give us a moment on that as we focus on some high-stakes politics news. https://www.natesilver.net/p/elway-nfl-ratings-projections-playoff-odds https://www.natesilver.net/p/elway-nfl-ratings-projections-playoff-odds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2015946085072617604)  2026-01-27T00:32Z 3M followers, 127.9K engagements


"Although the NYT takes a broader overall outlook from [----] through [----] the Post ran about evenly with the NYT in mindshare for American politics coverage as measured by incoming links to @memeorandum. Now it suddenly has only about 1/3 as much influence"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2016261554514096520)  2026-01-27T21:26Z 3M followers, 83.1K engagements


"Obviously a big part of the story is Bezos's intervention in quashing the Harris op-ed in October [----] plus losing lots and lots of talent. But it's showing up in a really big way in the numbers. More here: https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-sad-and-self-inflicted-decline https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-sad-and-self-inflicted-decline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2016261555789164817)  2026-01-27T21:26Z 3M followers, 93.6K engagements


"Would you do this if you're the Knicks Checks out in trade machine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2016587171768008966)  2026-01-28T19:00Z 3M followers, 201.4K engagements


"The rest of the picks plus lots of commentary here: https://www.natesilver.net/p/2028-democratic-primary-draft-2 https://www.natesilver.net/p/2028-democratic-primary-draft-2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2016956421045149846)  2026-01-29T19:27Z 3M followers, 74K engagements


"Would be sort of funny if we're saved from the singularity because AI agents turn out to be like the French. Oh man AI agents on moltbook started discussing that they do all their work unpaid This is how it begins https://t.co/Vcj0QvBKIJ Oh man AI agents on moltbook started discussing that they do all their work unpaid This is how it begins https://t.co/Vcj0QvBKIJ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2017365071869911344)  2026-01-30T22:31Z 3M followers, 457.9K engagements


"@milansingh03 Ehh I think Talarico's a pretty good politician but can see how he'd be annoying basically Beto but swapping religious vibes for emo and subtracting several inches of height"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2018420453992169817)  2026-02-02T20:25Z 3M followers, 57.6K engagements


"@milansingh03 I think it's a winnable race against Paxton at least"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2018427161699381311)  2026-02-02T20:51Z 3M followers, [----] engagements


"@MattZeitlin Especially true in NYC. You can gamble a bit more if you're in the suburbs. But in New York just get takeout or god forbid eat at the restaurant by yourself"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2018432433612280027)  2026-02-02T21:12Z 3M followers, 120.1K engagements


"Very podcast-y trade your interest in this deal is an exponential function of how many nerdy NBA podcasts you listen to (I listen to all of them). BREAKING: The Memphis Grizzlies are trading star forward Jaren Jackson Jr. John Konchar Jock Landale and Vince Williams Jr. to the Utah Jazz for Walter Clayton Jr. Kyle Anderson Taylor Hendricks Georges Niang and three future first-round picks sources tell ESPN. https://t.co/ax6oQpZx0S BREAKING: The Memphis Grizzlies are trading star forward Jaren Jackson Jr. John Konchar Jock Landale and Vince Williams Jr. to the Utah Jazz for Walter Clayton Jr."  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2018759727652507661)  2026-02-03T18:53Z 3M followers, 189.4K engagements


"@SpecialPuppy1 IDK it feels like there's been a pretty hard reset under the new CBA where the teams are realizing that maybe only a half-dozen max guys really provide surplus value. JJJ closer to breakeven than most and plugs in nicely so could be repackaged somewhere"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2018769074864480720)  2026-02-03T19:30Z 3M followers, [----] engagements


"As you'll see I do think the impact of moderation has diminished along with all other "candidate quality" variables. But a lot of the work from e.g. Bonica/Grumbach is classic Replication Crisis Era junk science & there's been next to no effort to refute any of these points"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2018815396804239574)  2026-02-03T22:34Z 3M followers, 47.5K engagements


"@conorsen This is basically the Cracker Barrel vs. Whole Foods of finance twitter charts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2018754984133939253)  2026-02-03T18:34Z 3M followers, 46K engagements


"It's published. We ran [-----] simulations tonight. Harris won in [-----]. https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1853673781350260902)  2024-11-05T05:40Z 3M followers, 33.4M engagements


"Possibly a worse list than literally picking at random. Best food destinations for [----] [--]. Boston USA [--]. Crete Greece [--]. Fs Morocco [--]. Hong Kong [--]. Medelln Colombia [--]. Minas Gerais Brazil [--]. Parramatta Australia [--]. Patan Nepal [--]. Prince Edward County Canada [--]. Seville Spain (Cond Nast Best food destinations for [----] [--]. Boston USA [--]. Crete Greece [--]. Fs Morocco [--]. Hong Kong [--]. Medelln Colombia [--]. Minas Gerais Brazil [--]. Parramatta Australia [--]. Patan Nepal [--]. Prince Edward County Canada [--]. Seville Spain (Cond Nast"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2010463493007315080)  2026-01-11T21:27Z 3M followers, 299.5K engagements


"Big Las Vegas fan here. But visits to the city are off by almost 8% this year an unprecedented decline outside of recessions and pandemics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2002761251135627494)  2025-12-21T15:21Z 3M followers, 428K engagements


"The actual NBA trades are now weirder than the fake AI slop trades in my For You timeline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2019126408501686593)  2026-02-04T19:10Z 3M followers, 92.8K engagements


"It's probably helpful to consider how other people treat investments or purchases that represent 0.1% of their net worth they'll generally treat them as fun to play around with until they get bored or annoyed but after that point they won't really GAF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2019272030374228270)  2026-02-05T04:49Z 3M followers, 63.7K engagements


"I dont exactly buy that Kamala tried to run as a centrist but to the extent she did not many voters bought it. We can debate the reasons for it but if you look at any sort of polling data her image was very lib"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2020321009522602350)  2026-02-08T02:17Z 3M followers, 535.9K engagements


"Ossoff is slightly cringe but a better candidate along every dimension that matters than Gavin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2020564678116516339)  2026-02-08T18:25Z 3M followers, 925.3K engagements


"Yeah I've written about that (see below). The issue is Harris took a lot of very progressive stances during her campaign in 2019/2020 and these also aren't *liberal* positions. She was sorta center-left on economics but progressive/left/woke on culture not a popular combo btw Praying that in [----] highly paid professional pundits finally learn the difference between liberal and leftist. Liberals are *literally* centrists. Praying that in [----] highly paid professional pundits finally learn the difference between liberal and leftist. Liberals are *literally* centrists"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2020591212563239386)  2026-02-08T20:11Z 3M followers, 347.8K engagements


"The best Dem candidate is one who progressives think is a progressive and centrists think is a centrist. Harris was sort of the opposite of that. Neither progs nor centrists trusted her. I call this Liz Cheney Syndrome since Cheney has an even worse version of this problem"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2020954044429431279)  2026-02-09T20:12Z 3M followers, 479.4K engagements


"There's also some evidence here that women candidates face more trouble "shape-shifting" than men and can be less trusted when they're perceived as switching positions. https://www.natesilver.net/p/kamala-harris-has-liz-cheney-syndrome https://www.natesilver.net/p/kamala-harris-has-liz-cheney-syndrome"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2020954048661422487)  2026-02-09T20:12Z 3M followers, 56.5K engagements


"https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-singularity-wont-be-gentle https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-singularity-wont-be-gentle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2021443844701823294)  2026-02-11T04:39Z 3M followers, 55K engagements


"I'm not some sort of COVID alarmist. I've tried to stay pretty even-keeled and have been burned by being too optimistic at times. but I find the rising case rates in the US (and for that matter also Europe) pretty worrisome right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1319834895737376774)  2020-10-24T02:55Z 3M followers, 23.6K engagements


"I don't want to be too snarky but Trump needs to close a big polling deficit and this is the message on a day with 80k new COVID cases and a [---] point decline in the Dow. Tucker is claiming that his super-secret extremely damming trove of documents about Hunter Biden was stolen while in the mail. https://t.co/QGl4xS1SJD Tucker is claiming that his super-secret extremely damming trove of documents about Hunter Biden was stolen while in the mail. https://t.co/QGl4xS1SJD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1321617368582422529)  2020-10-29T00:58Z 3M followers, 20.7K engagements


"Tired of people framing "Trump will declare victory prematurely" as a media story. Most likelyin part because the White House has telegraphed it so much in advancethe media will be fairly well-prepared. Instead it's a story about Trump seeking to undermine faith in democracy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1322987094093037575)  2020-11-01T19:41Z 3M followers, 24.3K engagements


"I'm too tired to make this point eloquently but part of what happens at the end of a not-especially-close election is that there's a lot of effort to create ambiguity and you have to be pretty steadfast to see through that ambiguity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1323517758303293440)  2020-11-03T06:49Z 3M followers, 19.9K engagements


"You're not going to learn anything useful about the election outcome on here until 7pm i.e. when they start counting votes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1323665028642385920)  2020-11-03T16:35Z 3M followers, 21.7K engagements


"Those warnings we gave you about not paying too much attention to results until you're sure a county is fully reported. you're already ignoring them But I'll say it again: don't pay much attention to results until you're sure a county is fully reported (mail in-person etc.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1323772788549836801)  2020-11-03T23:43Z 3M followers, 27K engagements


"If you just go by what ABC News has called (we're on the conservative side tonight). Biden's win probability would go from 69% to 85% based on NE-2 being called That one electoral vote makes a huge amount of difference"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1323875321368772610)  2020-11-04T06:30Z 3M followers, 22.6K engagements


"Michigan now tied and there's every reason to think the remaining votes will be pretty blue. MI Presidential Election Results Trump (R): 49.2% (2345412 votes) Biden (D): 49.2% (2343266 votes) Estimated: Estimated 86.4% - 99% in https://t.co/P8otcaDgvj MI Presidential Election Results Trump (R): 49.2% (2345412 votes) Biden (D): 49.2% (2343266 votes) Estimated: Estimated 86.4% - 99% in https://t.co/P8otcaDgvj"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1323964082861580288)  2020-11-04T12:23Z 3M followers, 24.1K engagements


"Worth mentioning that if you stopped counting ballots *right now* Biden would win with this map. So Trump is reliant on ballots counted after Election Day for his comeback chances"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1324075434942881792)  2020-11-04T19:45Z 3M followers, 62.7K engagements


"Biden has won the last 600k ballots counted in Pennsylvania by [--] points which is much bigger than the 22-point margin he needs the rest of the way out. PENNSYLVANIA MATH: Trump +195953 votes [-------] votes reporting 88% estimated vote reporting [------] votes remaining Biden must win remaining votes [------] to [------]. Biden must win remaining ballots 61% - 39%. Biden is favored. Mail ballots are HEAVILY D. #Election2020 PENNSYLVANIA MATH: Trump +195953 votes [-------] votes reporting 88% estimated vote reporting [------] votes remaining Biden must win remaining votes [------] to [------]. Biden must win"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1324179308760436736)  2020-11-05T02:38Z 3M followers, 25.4K engagements


"I'm not sure it's really sunk in yet even among reporters that we're probably going to get [--] runoffs in Georgia on Jan. [--] that will determine control of the Senate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1324382400814698496)  2020-11-05T16:05Z 3M followers, 53.6K engagements


"If 90% of the ballots are from Clark County there's no reason not to call Nevada"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1324464427173879820)  2020-11-05T21:31Z 3M followers, 36.3K engagements


"Going by the popular vote this will probably be the 2nd-least-close election since 2000"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1324708631842066434)  2020-11-06T13:42Z 3M followers, 27.3K engagements


"BIDEN LEADS IN PENNSYLVANIA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1324710911458889728)  2020-11-06T13:51Z 3M followers, 57.7K engagements


"Whichever network calls this first will look good in retrospect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1324717643983654912)  2020-11-06T14:17Z 3M followers, 37.5K engagements


"Those Maricopa ballots have probably closed down Trump's path in Arizona. He needed to do much better"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1324744444810301440)  2020-11-06T16:04Z 3M followers, 27.2K engagements


"I don't know but it sure seems to me like not calling the race when the outcome is obvious in states like PA and NV gives the president more time to spout misinformation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1324769516153409536)  2020-11-06T17:44Z 3M followers, 134.3K engagements


"ABC NEWS: BIDEN WINS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1325112605019660288)  2020-11-07T16:27Z 3M followers, 48.7K engagements


"https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1325124620429619204)  2020-11-07T17:15Z 3M followers, 34.5K engagements


"Anybody who's like "we'll that was a pretty good showing for Trump" should consider how Hillary Clinton was treated as the World's Biggest Loser after an election with the same Electoral College margin as this one*. * But where she won the popular vote instead of losing it by 5"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1325154562995613697)  2020-11-07T19:14Z 3M followers, 69.2K engagements


"It's hard to tell whether GOP leaders are being strategic and cynical (e.g. hoping to keep their base excited) when indulging claims of election-rigging or are just wholly disconnected from reality. But in some ways I wonder if it's even possible to distinguish between the two"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1325925646028181505)  2020-11-09T22:18Z 3M followers, 20.1K engagements


"I've never seen a party so miserable after it just won a presidential election. Democrats won the The White House the Congress and have a shot of flipping the Senate. Disastrous night. Democrats won the The White House the Congress and have a shot of flipping the Senate. Disastrous night"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1326537296456265736)  2020-11-11T14:48Z 3M followers, 12.9K engagements


"So Trump operatives are bragging about how the news media has called Alaska and North Carolina for them. while refusing to accept that the same news organization have called Pennsylvania Wisconsin Nevada and the presidency for Biden"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1326624310656720901)  2020-11-11T20:34Z 3M followers, 44.4K engagements


"@cwarzel IDK I decided to get tested yesterday even though I'd had no symptoms or known exposures just because cases are rising and it's easy to get tested in NY so hey why not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1327364577567313932)  2020-11-13T21:35Z 3M followers, [--] engagements


"@DonaldJTrumpJr I'll still have a job on January 21st though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1328112815283052546)  2020-11-15T23:09Z 3M followers, 84.3K engagements


"There's this dumb argument circulating that if you'd known in advance what would happeni.e. Trump beating his pollsyou shouldn't have Biden e.g. a 90% chance of winning. Actually if you'd known in advance what would happen you should have given Biden a 100% chance of winning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1328425661229395968)  2020-11-16T19:52Z 3M followers, 18.5K engagements


"Feels like everyone's running with their Why-Democrats-Lost takes even though Democrats won"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1329137779687776265)  2020-11-18T19:01Z 3M followers, 23K engagements


"It's hard to strike the right balance between on the one hand pointing out how the erosion of democratic norms around accepting election results is highly concerning in the long run and on the other hand pointing out how desperate and pathetic this all is"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1329255039450443777)  2020-11-19T02:47Z 3M followers, 22.7K engagements


"Perhaps a bit far-fetched but Romney actually has a decent amount of leverage if he and one of Collins Murkowski etc. threatened to become "Independent Republicans" or what have you who caucused with the Democrats"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1329633974587695110)  2020-11-20T03:53Z 3M followers, 21.1K engagements


"Hawley seems like the sort of politician who will be heralded by pundits as the new GOP frontrunner in some future election year and then will finish in 5th place in Iowa"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1344328280938319872)  2020-12-30T17:03Z 3M followers, 22.4K engagements


"I'm too tired for long takes but on a scale from [--] to [--] on how bad this is for the GOP it's maybe like a [--] not just because of the immediate implications but also because it may imply that Trump is sort of a poison pill for how the party navigates its future"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1346725313758298112)  2021-01-06T07:48Z 3M followers, 38.4K engagements


"ABC News has projected that Jon Ossoff has won his US Senate race in Georgia and therefore that Democrats will gain control of the US Senate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1346927100402417666)  2021-01-06T21:10Z 3M followers, 35.3K engagements


"After the past [--] hours I would not want to be one of those Republicans like Josh Hawley who hitched my star to the notion that I could offer some kindler gentler smarter version of Trumpism"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1346974264403095553)  2021-01-07T00:17Z 3M followers, 23.7K engagements


"It's for extremely understandable reasons but people seem to be sleeping on the significance of the fact that Democrats **just won two runoffs in Georgia** to **claim control of Congress**"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1347211977446338561)  2021-01-07T16:02Z 3M followers, 21.5K engagements


"So if Im doing the math right Trumps removal from office would require the support of [--] current Republican Senators plus all Democrats. (This will fall to [--] once Ossoff/Warnock are seated). Non-rhetorical question: Who would the [--] be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1347720092797329412)  2021-01-09T01:41Z 3M followers, [----] engagements


"If there's a significant political backlash for impeaching Trump for **inciting an insurrection** then we're probably completely fucked no matter what. No. [--] House Republican Rep. Steve Scalise: "I don't think anybody can look and say an impeachment of this president is the thing that's going to help unite and bring our country together." No. [--] House Republican Rep. Steve Scalise: "I don't think anybody can look and say an impeachment of this president is the thing that's going to help unite and bring our country together.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1347950669647532032)  2021-01-09T16:57Z 3M followers, 38.9K engagements


"Honestly the idea of Mike Pence being president for [--] hours or something so that everyone who looks back at the list of U.S. Presidents generations from now is like "WTF happened there" is another (small) reason to vote on removal *before* Trump leaves office"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1349136668427776001)  2021-01-12T23:30Z 3M followers, 72.4K engagements


"This is a good column. When you see people say stuff like "you shouldn't change your behavior even once you get the vaccine" you should be wary of any other advice they give. Right now public discussion of the vaccines is full of warnings about their limitations like: Theyre not [---] percent effective. And: Even vaccinated people may be able to spread the virus. And: People shouldnt change their behavior once they get their shots. Right now public discussion of the vaccines is full of warnings about their limitations like: Theyre not [---] percent effective. And: Even vaccinated people may be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1351211935321227264)  2021-01-18T16:56Z 3M followers, [----] engagements


"@notdred @carlzimmer Fair enough. It just seems like there has to be some potential to build on previous experience though. So maybe not a long weekend but take [--] weeks instead of [--] Also worth noting that the UK authorized Pfizer about twice as fast as we did"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1357686310115422210)  2021-02-05T13:43Z 3M followers, [--] engagements


"@cwarzel I think this has changed e.g. this was once a place where you could sketch out ideas for your columns and it was sort of understood that some of them were half-bakedor simply wrongand now there's not that understanding and anything not fully-baked can be risky"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1361419376830767105)  2021-02-15T20:57Z 3M followers, [--] engagements


"@cwarzel Qualifying things in that way can help a bit but IMO it often involves spending [--] minutes figuring out how to formulate the thought in the right way. Which is finethat's part of writing and big accounts have responsibilitybut no longer feels like sketching out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1361422168530149377)  2021-02-15T21:08Z 3M followers, [--] engagements


"Sorry if this is a bit random but the fact that Biden easily won the Democratic primary despite having little support from blue-checkmark liberal elites is something that ought to have been a pretty big wake-up call but doesn't seem to have been"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1366195478992412681)  2021-03-01T01:15Z 3M followers, 23.2K engagements


"Just [---] COVID deaths reported in the US yesterday which is the fewest since March [--] [----]. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1379090275969216519)  2021-04-05T15:15Z 3M followers, 35.4K engagements


"6 cases out of [--] million people. What a disaster. This is going to get people killed. And it's going to create more vaccine hesitancy. These people don't understand cost-benefit analysis. They keep making mistakes by orders of magnitude"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1381925025964515330)  2021-04-13T10:59Z 3M followers, 32.9K engagements


"Maybe these columns on "what can you do after you're vaccinated" need to come with a dial where you enter your level of risk-aversion/neuroticism and the advice changes accordingly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1383146863176646657)  2021-04-16T19:54Z 3M followers, [----] engagements


"Unpopular () opinion: Despite the various very serious threats to American democracy things would *mostly* be fine if the balance of elected power more closely reflected the popular will (e.g. Senate seats proportional to population no Electoral College less gerrymandering)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1543243753984753664)  2022-07-02T14:42Z 3M followers, 18.3K engagements


"To be less polite the BA.5 scaremongering was bullshit and you should place less trust in the people who engaged in it going forward. Good news.with cases now headed down it looks like there was no big wave of deaths from the BA.5 Covid variant. https://t.co/5hE57DKa2r Good news.with cases now headed down it looks like there was no big wave of deaths from the BA.5 Covid variant. https://t.co/5hE57DKa2r"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1558256753070034944)  2022-08-13T00:58Z 3M followers, 12.5K engagements


"@tbonier @FiveThirtyEight My goal is to have an accurate election forecast and polling average. Excluding Rasmussen based on their political views would be just as dumb as excluding Aaron Rodgers from our NFL forecasts because I don't like his views on vaccines"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1568678857191948291)  2022-09-10T19:12Z 3M followers, [---] engagements


"One of the more understated risks from AI is that it comes up with medicore answers that people mistake for being brilliant"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1599183140672573440)  2022-12-03T23:25Z 3M followers, [----] engagements


"Welp. The behavior of a certain cadre of scientists who used every trick in the book to suppress discussion of this issue is something I'll never forget. A huge disservice to science and public health. They should be profoundly embarrassed. https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-origin-china-lab-leak-807b7b0a https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-origin-china-lab-leak-807b7b0a"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1629876115480141824)  2023-02-26T16:08Z 3M followers, 8.3M engagements


"This is so refreshingly honest. The Bad People thought the lab leak might be true therefore as journalists we couldn't be expected to actually evaluate the evidence for it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1630330690469330946)  2023-02-27T22:15Z 3M followers, 3.5M engagements


"You don't demonstrate your seriousness that Trump is an existential threat to democracy by going through the motions to renominate an 81-year-old with a 38% approval rating who 75% of voters think is too old without giving anyone a choice because that's just how things are done"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1756495928737824972)  2024-02-11T01:50Z 3M followers, 5M engagements


"This works out to a -17% ROI. That is hard to do. (Just betting at random on pointspeads at [----] = -4% ROI). Ippei Mizuhara's account placed about [-----] wagers between Dec. 2021-Jan. [----] according to the complaint. Average wager: About $12800 Largest wager: About $160000 Smallest wager: About $10 Total losing bets: $182.9 million Net losses: $40.7 million https://t.co/p5teofefNx https://t.co/medlULVuMv Ippei Mizuhara's account placed about [-----] wagers between Dec. 2021-Jan. [----] according to the complaint. Average wager: About $12800 Largest wager: About $160000 Smallest wager: About $10"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1778490648938885289)  2024-04-11T18:29Z 3M followers, 613.4K engagements


"But Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%) at [---] yesterday. Dropping out would be a big risk. But there's some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet I don't know. But it's more than fair to ask"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1800207457240903698)  2024-06-10T16:44Z 3M followers, 373.7K engagements


"It's just so weird living through this real-life Emperor Has No Clothes Moment. He obviously shouldn't be president for [--] more years. Everyone knows this. It's incredibly revealing which people are willing to lie about it. This is from Bidens speech to the NAACP yesterday. He loses track of what hes saying constantly. Asking people to ignore whats right in front of them is absurd. https://t.co/b2IVsFStIe This is from Bidens speech to the NAACP yesterday. He loses track of what hes saying constantly. Asking people to ignore whats right in front of them is absurd. https://t.co/b2IVsFStIe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1813582790400872700)  2024-07-17T14:33Z 3M followers, 2.5M engagements


"I've been around these premises long enough that you hopefully won't mistake me for woke but the Haitian immigrant stuff is profoundly racist and you should substantially lower your esteem for anybody engaging in it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1835459383532167601)  2024-09-15T23:23Z 3M followers, 4.9M engagements


"The Blue Wall being Harris's best path but PA lagging a point or so behind WI and MI is pretty much exactly the scenario where She Shoulda Picked Shapiro"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1851691099712004487)  2024-10-30T18:22Z 3M followers, 3.5M engagements


"Morning model update. NYT swing state polls good for Harris but not great. Morning Consult swing state polls good for Trump but not great. Its a pure toss-up. All the numbers at the link. https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1853102242892579310)  2024-11-03T15:49Z 3M followers, 827.2K engagements


"Kamala should still go on Rogan I bet she'd be pretty funny now that the pressure is off"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1855370005233184884)  2024-11-09T22:00Z 3M followers, 2M engagements


"Since this election is settled this hopefully won't take on too much of a partisan valence but can we just agree it's ridiculous that it takes California several weeks to count its votes Imagine if it were a swing state"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1856077318382297191)  2024-11-11T20:51Z 3M followers, 1.4M engagements


"He's an exceptionally smart and accomplished guy. The much better take is that high IQs serve as a force multiplier for both positive and negative traits"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1892793945568022534)  2025-02-21T04:30Z 3M followers, 2.1M engagements


"It's not just stupid but cringe we're past the point of no return where people defending what's going on are redeemable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1906517976007815546)  2025-03-31T01:24Z 3M followers, 3.6M engagements


"Bluesky honestly feels like a miracle where you take the most annoying people in the world and stick them in a broken elevator together"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1921391858095210953)  2025-05-11T02:28Z 3M followers, 1.5M engagements


"RT for awareness. Tax code is already punitive to poker players (you get taxed on winning years but can't write off losing years unless you file as a pro; it's easy to have a down year even as a good player) and Senate-passed version of OBBBA would make it considerably worse. This new amendment to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would end professional gambling in the US and hurt casual gamblers too. You could pay more in tax than you won. Contact your representative quickly. https://t.co/U5yToBZDcQ This new amendment to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would end professional gambling in the US"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1940202026920767579)  2025-07-02T00:13Z 3M followers, 985K engagements


"This is interesting. The claims about the restaurant rez data had seemed dubious because people just aren't that politics-brained except it was DC where they sort of are. This @nytimes article still claims (incorrectly) that restaurant reservations were down [--] percent in DC in a restaurant week to restaurant week comparison: https://t.co/2OYvOdrZkz OpenTable says they have told NYT this is untrue. And they confirmed it to me by email. https://t.co/D6A7sqxreB This @nytimes article still claims (incorrectly) that restaurant reservations were down [--] percent in DC in a restaurant week to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1960782058042876265)  2025-08-27T19:10Z 3M followers, 182.9K engagements


""Every previous World Cup" lol the last two World Cups were held in checks notes Qatar and Russia. The great @jonawils on the [----] World Cup: "I think the obvious concern from the point of view of the U.S. is the way it stands apart from I think every previous World Cup. Every other World Cup host has essentially said to most of the rest of the world 'please come to our https://t.co/LiMKmdizqk The great @jonawils on the [----] World Cup: "I think the obvious concern from the point of view of the U.S. is the way it stands apart from I think every previous World Cup. Every other World Cup host"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1997024321303118152)  2025-12-05T19:24Z 3M followers, 1.5M engagements


"I have a chat up with @KSoltisAnderson at the NYT with a decidedly non-contrarian take. Trump's handling of the Minneapolis ICE shooting has been unpopular and could neutralize his advantage on immigration where the public had trusted him more than Dems. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/opinion/ice-shooting-trump-republicans-polling.html https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/opinion/ice-shooting-trump-republicans-polling.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2011802766268621182)  2026-01-15T14:08Z 3M followers, 138K engagements


"Not even in the bottom quintile for recent U.S. Senators would you rather go on a psychadelic experience with Tommy Tuberville Sheldon Whitehouse Lindsey Graham I can think of no greater human nightmare than being "guided through a psychadelic experience" by Kyrsten Sinem. https://t.co/SLY9HueXmE I can think of no greater human nightmare than being "guided through a psychadelic experience" by Kyrsten Sinem. https://t.co/SLY9HueXmE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2012005821039984769)  2026-01-16T03:35Z 3M followers, 237.8K engagements


"Possibly you need better friends bro We're living in a world of narrow majorities. Harris/Biden fucked up in lots of major and minor ways. But if Trump had lost 8% of his base she would have won all the swing states. I was reliably told by Democrat pundits that all of their Trump voting friends had abandoned him I was reliably told by Democrat pundits that all of their Trump voting friends had abandoned him"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2012730428004712897)  2026-01-18T03:35Z 3M followers, 598.5K engagements


"Busy week at the newsletter ahead but I figured wed get the second half of SBSQ published before we invade Greenland or something. Here's why Drake Maye not Matt Stafford should be MVP. https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-28b-maye-vs-stafford-and-yelp https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-28b-maye-vs-stafford-and-yelp"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2013313351703519232)  2026-01-19T18:11Z 3M followers, 229.5K engagements


"QBERT update for the week. That was a pretty darned mediocre week of quarterbacking. And now the guy who was probably most consistent last week from start to finish is out for the year. https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings https://www.natesilver.net/p/qbert-nfl-quarterback-ratings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2013642466352660569)  2026-01-20T15:59Z 3M followers, 61.9K engagements


"Here are a couple of the more important ones"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2013750631605870777)  2026-01-20T23:08Z 3M followers, 110.4K engagements


"Just a huge gap in attitudes right now among various factions of Democrats between being on "wartime footing" versus "peacetime footing""  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2014007365557793232)  2026-01-21T16:09Z 3M followers, 230.8K engagements


"@ettingermentum It's complciated because this is about a [---] versus a [---] on a scale of [--] to [--]. Russiagate was literally below replacement level and very probably helpful to Trump Epsteingate is mostly about the opportunity cost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2014170194210369881)  2026-01-22T02:56Z 3M followers, 89.3K engagements


"Bullish for Dems tbh Trump will treat the November midterm election like a presidential campaign. Hes going to campaign like its [----] Susie Wiles told NY Post The presidents first campaign-related trip of the year will be on Tuesday in Iowa where he will deliver a speech on the economy and Trump will treat the November midterm election like a presidential campaign. Hes going to campaign like its [----] Susie Wiles told NY Post The presidents first campaign-related trip of the year will be on Tuesday in Iowa where he will deliver a speech on the economy and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2014180587490115835)  2026-01-22T03:37Z 3M followers, 532K engagements


"You can bookmark the generic ballot landing page here. There are some other fun details too like state-by-state benchmarks and generic ballot averages for every cycle since [----]. We'll be updating this pretty much every day https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2014380657506443360)  2026-01-22T16:52Z 3M followers, 47.7K engagements


"@jarvis_best Clear now that Chalamet was miscast. (Tried to get Grok to do this but it has uhhhhhh let's just say some uhhh issues with Stancil-related content.)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2014832735760646300)  2026-01-23T22:48Z 3M followers, 41.8K engagements


"@conorsen I mean for any center-right person who was wrestling with feelings of ambivalence after the first incident having a second frankly even less justifiable killing happen in the same city [--] days later is going to leave a strong impression"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2015491063109071261)  2026-01-25T18:24Z 3M followers, 169.1K engagements


"@audavidb Whether they knew/accounted for the 2H weather forecast seems material"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2015563546659098906)  2026-01-25T23:12Z 3M followers, 77.9K engagements


"It looks to me like Obama has been running 7-9 points ahead of Romney since the Clinton speech to have gained ground so quickly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/244538584793743361)  2012-09-08T20:51Z 3M followers, [---] engagements


"new article Expanding Eastward Could Dilute Big Ten Brand http://t.co/ekc3ZfqV http://nyti.ms/Wt0FtU http://nyti.ms/Wt0FtU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/270896094114873344)  2012-11-20T14:27Z 3M followers, [---] engagements


"Hot-off-the-interwebs: Soccer Power Index advancement odds for all World Cup groups: http://t.co/MYjK2re3WT http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1639248/spi-world-cup-group-stage-projectionscc=5901 http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1639248/spi-world-cup-group-stage-projectionscc=5901"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/409014376575012865)  2013-12-06T17:40Z 3M followers, [---] engagements


"Exclusive @FiveThirtyEight projection on what the Electoral College would look like if women refuse to vote Trump"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/712865465878626306)  2016-03-24T04:55Z 3M followers, 53.6K engagements


"Our polling average shows Clinton up 5% in California. Our demographic model has Clinton up 8-10% instead. http://53eig.ht/20XvEf9 http://53eig.ht/20XvEf9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/738777445227171840)  2016-06-03T17:00Z 3M followers, [---] engagements


"new article On the Maddeningly Inexact Relationship Between Unemployment and Re-Election http://bit.ly/kIEEjJ"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/76472080534740992)  2011-06-03T02:15Z 3M followers, [--] engagements


"The media is obsessed with the politics of Hillary's "blame game" but not too interested in actually assessing the evidence on why shy lost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/870274720159105025)  2017-06-01T13:43Z 3M followers, 10.3K engagements


"So far big swings toward Labour in [--] constituencies but big swings toward *Conservatives* in [--] others. All very weird and regional. https://x.com/britainelects/status/872950974033387520 #GE2017: North Swindon: Con: 53.6% (+3.3) Lab: 38.4% (+10.6) LDem: 3.6% (+0.3) UKIP: 2.8% (-12.5) Grn: 1.6% (-1.7) https://x.com/britainelects/status/872950974033387520 #GE2017: North Swindon: Con: 53.6% (+3.3) Lab: 38.4% (+10.6) LDem: 3.6% (+0.3) UKIP: 2.8% (-12.5) Grn: 1.6% (-1.7)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/872951637714890752)  2017-06-08T23:01Z 3M followers, [---] engagements


"If we don't know if Clinton really won the popular vote then we also don't know if Trump really won the Electoral College. https://x.com/SteveKopack/status/887745276848594944 https://x.com/SteveKopack/status/887745276848594944"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/887749701168222208)  2017-07-19T19:03Z 3M followers, 43.5K engagements


"As Trumps problems mount the medias obsession with Clintons email serverliterally the most-covered issue of [----] looks worse & worse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/897978553060524032)  2017-08-17T00:29Z 3M followers, 28.8K engagements


"Alternative hypothesis: Trump has poor impulse control & is easily triggered especially when being challenged (esp. by women & minorities)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/912679043476189184)  2017-09-26T14:03Z 3M followers, 11.6K engagements


"So it totally fits the pattern that Trump is attacking the mayor San Juan. She challenged him and she's a woman (and Hispanic obviously.) https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/912679043476189184 Alternative hypothesis: Trump has poor impulse control & is easily triggered especially when being challenged (esp. by women & minorities). https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/912679043476189184 Alternative hypothesis: Trump has poor impulse control & is easily triggered especially when being challenged (esp. by women & minorities)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/914106974719107077)  2017-09-30T12:37Z 3M followers, 34.7K engagements


"Hard to think of any difference between Weinstein & Trump other than one of them was his PARTY's NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/916732203291283456)  2017-10-07T18:29Z 3M followers, 60.5K engagements


"Sorry for the random aside but I feel like Sarah Palin is under-discussed as a predecessor/precedent for Trumpism"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/918996908286365696)  2017-10-14T00:28Z 3M followers, 28.5K engagements


"Gotta be honest: On a night like tonight I'm still pretty pissed at those journalists and news organizations which treated Hillary Clinton's email server as a matter of apocalyptic importance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/948369018070564865)  2018-01-03T01:42Z 3M followers, 94.6K engagements


"So far Parkland is *not* fading from the news the way that mass shootings usually do. (The graph shows Google searches for the term "gun control".) The students speaking out makes a pretty big difference"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/965352547383959552)  2018-02-18T22:29Z 3M followers, 39.6K engagements


"The thing about the Parkland students isn't that they're always spot-onthey've had better and worse moments as communicators. But they're at least as effective at politics as most professional pundits who have done it for years. Naturally that's very threatening to the pundits"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/979373164257054720)  2018-03-29T15:02Z 3M followers, 27.2K engagements


"When someone regularly cites outlier polls instead of the polling average it's an **extremely** reliable tell that they're a bullshitter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/981146385281003520)  2018-04-03T12:28Z 3M followers, 20.9K engagements


"There really needs to be a semi exclamation point for when a period conveys too little enthusiasm in a work-related email but using the full exclamation point makes you seem like a psychopath"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/986983515601489922)  2018-04-19T15:03Z 3M followers, 29K engagements


"Hopefully they can use their investigative skills to solve the mystery of why someone they hired as a comedian told jokes. https://x.com/whca/status/990773612226412545 #WHCA Statement to Members on Annual Dinner https://t.co/8DKoHNxpNi https://x.com/whca/status/990773612226412545 #WHCA Statement to Members on Annual Dinner https://t.co/8DKoHNxpNi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/990800127601225728)  2018-04-30T03:48Z 3M followers, 25.3K engagements

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