# ![@NGurushina Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1189953260637044737.png) @NGurushina Natalia Gurushina

Natalia Gurushina posts on X about brazil, inflation, in the, target the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1189953260637044737/interactions)
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### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1189953260637044737/posts_active)
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- [--] Week [--] no change
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### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1189953260637044737/followers)
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### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1189953260637044737/influencer_rank)
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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  72.28% [countries](/list/countries)  49.5% [currencies](/list/currencies)  15.84% [stocks](/list/stocks)  1.98% [agencies](/list/agencies)  0.99% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  0.99%

**Social topic influence**
[brazil](/topic/brazil) 27.72%, [inflation](/topic/inflation) 21.78%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 13.86%, [target](/topic/target) 10.89%, [market](/topic/market) 9.9%, [debt](/topic/debt) 8.91%, [argentina](/topic/argentina) 8.91%, [colombia](/topic/colombia) 6.93%, [key](/topic/key) 5.94%, [south africa](/topic/south-africa) 5.94%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@ericfine123](/creator/undefined) [@rrccmmrr](/creator/undefined) [@michaelaarouet](/creator/undefined) [@liberaldeantoo2](/creator/undefined) [@angusshillingto](/creator/undefined) [@inforeadknow](/creator/undefined) [@internetleo](/creator/undefined) [@matiasabal](/creator/undefined) [@naubernues](/creator/undefined) [@potsdamcentral](/creator/undefined) [@mweigt](/creator/undefined)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Brazil the central bank sounds tough and hawkish but (or which is why) the market-implied terminal (trough) rate for the current cycle dropped by 75-100bps in the past [--] weeks with the first small rate cut now expected in January (DI curve)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1940743066903793766)  2025-07-03T12:02Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"BRL is riding the current global wave quite well dropping below 5.40/$ at some point today. Domestic stuff is key for future performance (as usual) but net long speculative positioning is not too extreme leaving room for further upside"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1963978747658240502)  2025-09-05T14:53Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Chinas consumer confidence is still frozen - The willingness to consume more dropped to the lowest level since [----] in Q3 according to the PBoCs survey. Not good. Explains the latest policy pivot. And an argument for the stronger CNY"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1982900507007160750)  2025-10-27T20:01Z 11.6K followers, 22.3K engagements


"If China wants to significantly boost consumption's share in the economy it should address such confidence killers as low pensions the weak social safety net and unfinished houses. On the upside boosting consumption would be consistent with stronger CNY (an anchor for EMFX) Chinas consumer confidence is still frozen - The willingness to consume more dropped to the lowest level since [----] in Q3 according to the PBoCs survey. Not good. Explains the latest policy pivot. And an argument for the stronger CNY. https://t.co/etzoEX3Ox4 Chinas consumer confidence is still frozen - The willingness to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1983183067771744437)  2025-10-28T14:44Z 11.6K followers, 45.5K engagements


"Colombias local bonds and domestic policies Cause and effect: = A nice price reaction (across the entire yield curve) to headlines about suspending the decree on the 23% minimum wage hike"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2022314317878563041)  2026-02-13T14:18Z 11.6K followers, 20.1K engagements


"Brazil seems to be following in Chinas footsteps diversifying away (pretty actively) from U.S. Treasuries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2003455022227685769)  2025-12-23T13:17Z 11.5K followers, 115.1K engagements


"Mexico has a solid case for a rate pause in Feb bi-weekly CPI edged up (year-on-year) the impact of the latest tariffs is not yet certain the policy rate is in the neutral band the differential with the Fed is tight and the market priced out some rate cuts for the Fed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2014376967777255725)  2026-01-22T16:37Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Uruguay local bonds A grab your money and run situation The extra-dovish shift in the policy direction (+ a promise to buy more $$$) is a good reason to take profits in Uruguays local bonds and lock in some of the highest year-to-date total return ($ unhedged) in GBI-EM:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016167001467564282)  2026-01-27T15:10Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazils monetary policy message - The implied probability of a 50bps rate cut in March is now 85% (Jans implied tiny rate cut was effectively absorbed into March). We the market continue to see close to -275bps in total for 2026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016917407936258156)  2026-01-29T16:52Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Colombian local rates are still adjusting after the central banks gutsy 100bps rate hike on Friday (the implied terminal rate now exceeds 13%) but the peso (COP) is in a happy place this morning topping the EMFX league table"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2018346532718731633)  2026-02-02T15:31Z 11.5K followers, 25.8K engagements


"Brazil the central banks minutes will be a must read tomorrow. All inflation expectations are below 4% but expectations for [----] are stock well above the target. If tomorrows minutes look hawkish the market might scale down its easing expectations for March back to -25bps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2018349560863547872)  2026-02-02T15:43Z 11.5K followers, 47.2K engagements


"In case you are still wondering why Colombias central bank felt compelled to frontload rate hikes - check what happened to Colombias inflation expectations in January (after the min wage hike)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2018433002636800277)  2026-02-02T21:15Z 11.5K followers, 39.1K engagements


"Brazils central bank minutes - Poker face The board is definitely in the mood to cut but it keeps an option to start slowly (-25bps) if inflation expectations remain sticky (among other things) or proceed at a faster pace (-50bps) if we see more progress on this front. Brazil the central banks minutes will be a must read tomorrow. All inflation expectations are below 4% but expectations for [----] are stock well above the target. If tomorrows minutes look hawkish the market might scale down its easing expectations for March back to -25bps https://t.co/EWWH4bqXbX Brazil the central banks minutes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2018678164596093093)  2026-02-03T13:29Z 11.5K followers, 37.9K engagements


"Trkiye - the central banks smaller than expected hawkish rate cut (-100bps) was completely justified by todays upside inflation surprise. Looks like Proceed with Caution will be the boards motto for the foreseeable future (despite faster fiscal adjustment)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2018683705284239586)  2026-02-03T13:51Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"South Africa jitters Politics or positioning Political noise is back following DA Steenhuisens decision to step down in April. Positives the GNU survived previous crises just fine Negatives positioning/valuations are stretched causing some market pain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2019133877445599652)  2026-02-04T19:40Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements


"The consensus is 100% certain about Mexicos policy rate pause tomorrow. Makes sense inflation expectations (esp. core) are moving north the policy differential with the Fed is tight (+Feds change at the helm) and the real ex-ante policy rate is well in the neutral band"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2019137967630303394)  2026-02-04T19:56Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"EM FX lower volatility vs. DM FX - a new shiny thing or the new normal @EricFine123"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2019143217669869950)  2026-02-04T20:17Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"A reminder that rating agencies examine EMs under a microscope and that no policy transgression goes unpunished - Moodys cut Indonesias outlook to negative due to reduced predictability in policymaking which can erode Indonesias long established policy credibility"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2019482832956190758)  2026-02-05T18:46Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements


"Mexicos central bank decided not to rock the boat and keep the policy rate on hold - for the right reasons The consensus is 100% certain about Mexicos policy rate pause tomorrow. Makes sense inflation expectations (esp. core) are moving north the policy differential with the Fed is tight (+Feds change at the helm) and the real ex-ante policy rate is well in the neutral band. https://t.co/XXWEORpeSI The consensus is 100% certain about Mexicos policy rate pause tomorrow. Makes sense inflation expectations (esp. core) are moving north the policy differential with the Fed is tight (+Feds change"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2019490921625317693)  2026-02-05T19:18Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"EM debt price action today - not bad given the circumstances (tight spreads are still concerning though). the chart - courtesy J.P. Morgan @EricFine123"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2019568471328333988)  2026-02-06T00:26Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"FX volatility Lower for longer DB argues that if big economic triggers are missing like a materially lower US growth the longer FX volatility stays low the more likely it is to stay that way. EM FX lower volatility vs. DM FX - a new shiny thing or the new normal @EricFine123 https://t.co/PcNdxmvyZU EM FX lower volatility vs. DM FX - a new shiny thing or the new normal @EricFine123 https://t.co/PcNdxmvyZU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2020899114012041552)  2026-02-09T16:34Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazils governor Galipolo is in the calibration mode - a rational choice given that CPI expectations are sticky (esp. 2027) the labor market is tight and there are election-related fiscal risks. Local bonds seem happy with this setup topping the year-to-date EM league table"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2020904204697477298)  2026-02-09T16:54Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazil - a tiny upside surprise notwithstanding todays inflation data dump is consistent with a 50bps rate cut in March especially if/as easing expectations push the real ex-ante policy rate deeper into restrictive zone"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2021210760144126408)  2026-02-10T13:12Z 11.6K followers, 10.2K engagements


"@rrccmmrr not always; plus a prospect of lower yields can generate inflows into local bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2021222430316908800)  2026-02-10T13:59Z 11.5K followers, [---] engagements


"Argentina The end of disinflation cries after the upside CPI surprise are too gloomy. We liked sequential moderation in core CPI. More stable ARS should also help. But last-mile disinflation will be slow and risks are still to the upside. A new CPI basket is also a mystery"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021359828048969871)  2026-02-10T23:05Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"USD was not too affected by the hawkish U.S. labor report - Does this reinforce the bearish USD trade which creates a beneficial global backdrop for EM and especially EM local debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2021660354187792702)  2026-02-11T18:59Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Mexico local bonds and Pres Trumps attempts to use the USMCA as a distraction from his own political woes - Mexico local bonds YTD outperformance (3rd best in JPMs GBI-EM Index) warrants caution esp. given that Mexico rates positioning looks stretched"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2021666269087641886)  2026-02-11T19:22Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Argentina $$$ purchases Make hay while the sun shines. The BCRA is absolutely right to use the relatively benign conditions to step up $$$ purchases for international reserves. Note that ARS 1m and 3m NDFs are not panicking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2021685375295496527)  2026-02-11T20:38Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"EM median inflation is back to the pre-COVID levels and lower inflation is good for EM local bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021926834670055769)  2026-02-12T12:38Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Can Trkiyes local bonds get their mojo back - Yields are high but the central banks CPI forecasts are revised higher (16% - 18% mid-point for 2026). The inflation report points to a shallow easing cycle limiting potential gains for local rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2021963038937735355)  2026-02-12T15:02Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements


"Gross fixed capital formation in DM - The widening gap between the U.S. and Germany seems logical but Germanys post-pandemic gap with Italy is fascinating. Does the RRF usage explain part of it (Italys requested loans/grants are the highest per capita) @MichaelAArouet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2021975324502761826)  2026-02-12T15:50Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Assessing Chinas benign Japanification prospects The CNY appreciation narrative is now mainstream and it could be associated with more outward FDI (a-la Japan in the 1980s) to the Global South that can boost EMs manufacturing potential. @EricFine123"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2022360969222197741)  2026-02-13T17:23Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"The probability of the 50% tariff on Brazil going into effect by August [--] rose to 78% on Polymarket raising more questions about possible political repercussions. Fasten your seatbelts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1947659869978284293)  2025-07-22T14:07Z 11.6K followers, 17.1K engagements


"Brazils budget reviews Magical Mystery Tour Its great that the government can generate extra revenue (pre-salt auctions + IOF) but the focus should be on generating larger primary surpluses to lower the debt trajectory (and hopefully interest rates)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1948061141751779383)  2025-07-23T16:42Z 11.6K followers, 30.9K engagements


"BofA is calling for much deeper rate cuts by the end of [----] in Brazil (11.25%) Mexico (6.75%) and Colombia (7%) on the back of stable oil cheap Chinese exports slower domestic (+US & Chinas) activity and less dominant USD. The current markets expectations are below:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1950211995875069977)  2025-07-29T15:09Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazil: 50% tariff + exceptions = de-escalation So the 50% tariff goes ahead but key exceptions mean that the effective tariff is likely to be 30%. It is high but not the end of the world as Brazil is a relatively closed economy and the US accounts for 11% of exports"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1950830306199527627)  2025-07-31T08:06Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazils central bank remains unapologetically hawkish COPOMs minutes talk about the dynamic labor market which greatly supports consumption services inflation inertia and unanchored expectations. The conclusion The key rate will have to stay significantly restrictive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1952714498952884469)  2025-08-05T12:53Z 11.6K followers, 33.6K engagements


"Brazil reportedly wants to fight US tariffs on four fronts: dialog mitigation diversification and retaliation: - Mitigations impact on the budget warrants attention - Diversification is key to watch in a context of BRICS leveraging Chinas influence (Bloombergs note today)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1953831747784773697)  2025-08-08T14:52Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazils inflation expectations - The right direction. A snails pace. Will No rate cuts for you conclusion hold after tomorrows big inflation reveal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1954938222137794599)  2025-08-11T16:09Z 11.6K followers, 23.6K engagements


"Brazils inflation looked less pressing in July - including core average and core services. One of my fav developments was a big drop in the diffusion index (50) which shows that price pressures were not widely spread Brazils inflation expectations - The right direction. A snails pace. Will No rate cuts for you conclusion hold after tomorrows big inflation reveal https://t.co/i8pRUa1gxL Brazils inflation expectations - The right direction. A snails pace. Will No rate cuts for you conclusion hold after tomorrows big inflation reveal https://t.co/i8pRUa1gxL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1955261693728092348)  2025-08-12T13:34Z 11.6K followers, 16.3K engagements


"Brazils tariffs-related support package (mitigation) - not tiny (BRL9.5bn tax breaks + BRL30bn concessional credits) but the fiscal stuff should not affect the primary target calcs (correct me if I am wrong). As to procurement programs I have not seen any numbers yet Brazil reportedly wants to fight US tariffs on four fronts: dialog mitigation diversification and retaliation: - Mitigations impact on the budget warrants attention - Diversification is key to watch in a context of BRICS leveraging Chinas influence (Bloombergs note today) https://t.co/adoPdaxDY2 Brazil reportedly wants to fight"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1956023032411042115)  2025-08-14T16:00Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazils inflation expectations are cooling off at a very slow pace But we had a shokakko moment today - expectations for [----] are back below 5%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1957471639311938004)  2025-08-18T15:56Z 11.6K followers, 10.8K engagements


"Brazils inflation expectations are now edging lower across all horizons in the central banks survey - including [----]. Barring unexpected the easing buzz should become louder"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1959943278951837841)  2025-08-25T11:37Z 11.6K followers, 20.1K engagements


"Checking pre-conditions for rate cuts in Brazil - Inflation and expectations are moving in the right direction. Mid-month CPI did not moderate as much as expected but it was a sizable yoy decline below the 5% handle:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1960316080238243993)  2025-08-26T12:19Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Does Brazils external is not a problem thesis still hold - FDI cover most of the current account deficit (which is good) but the latter keeps widening and this can be interpreted as a sign that growth needs to slow (preferably on the back of fiscal restraint)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1960323258089124300)  2025-08-26T12:47Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Why Brazil needs more structural reforms Thats why 👇 The gap between earmarked and non-earmarked lending rates is insane (chart courtesy JPM):"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1960987808211910723)  2025-08-28T08:48Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Are Brazils [----] growth and budget revenue assumptions too rosy The budget bill pencils in 2.44% GDP growth but todays Q2 GDP print showed meaningful slowdown in domestic activity and the consensus sees only 1.7% expansion in [----] as high real rates continue to bite"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1962914954530394293)  2025-09-02T16:26Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Argentina midterms Peak pessimism Polymarket bets now show only a 7% probability of Mileis LLA coalition winning most seats in the midterms while the probability of the LLA gaining most seats dropped to below 60%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1965028791543378205)  2025-09-08T12:25Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Argentina FX ARS 1m NDF is now outside the currency band (1487.36/$ vs. 1483.91/$) as the market is digesting Mileis (LLA) loss in PBA. We expect the authorities to prioritize FX stability in the run up to the midterms hence more policy tightening but also FX interventions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1965072406143537365)  2025-09-08T15:19Z 11.6K followers, 57K engagements


"The Brazilian central bank gave itself a pat on the shoulder (in minutes) saying that there is some reduction in expectations CPI and activity. A new stage for policy might have dovish hues but the board does not seem to be in a hurry with the first cut priced for Q1-26"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1970479208301310306)  2025-09-23T13:23Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Argentina - Floating ARS could be a game-changer for international reserves and external adjustment. In turn high reserves help to keep EM sovereign spreads in check:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1970517602817696058)  2025-09-23T15:56Z 11.6K followers, 20.4K engagements


"ARS continues to feel finicky today with NDFs beyond 3m defying the currency band Meanwhile Argentina posted a $3.02bn current account deficit in Q2 (and Q1 deficit was revised wider) a sign that further FX adjustment might be in order"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1972751156381454337)  2025-09-29T19:51Z 11.6K followers, 38.4K engagements


"Brazils [----] cyclical fiscal improvement is it over Brazils primary and nominal deficits edged south in Aug. MoF Haddad might need to line up additional revenue measures to meet the deficit target against the backdrop of softer growth and more forceful H2 spending execution"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1973022893564100663)  2025-09-30T13:51Z 11.6K followers, 22.4K engagements


"Argentinas rising crude oil output is important for many things including the external balance. Re the latter a freer floating currency would not hurt either"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1973726179640426811)  2025-10-02T12:26Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Chinas next policy move after the new rare earths controls and the U.S. threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods was to guide the CNY parity stronger Asserting dominance in trade talks Or an olive branch to the U.S"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1977572444824371488)  2025-10-13T03:09Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazils GDP is slowing but not crashing. Plus the latest drip-drip support measures started to add up. 2026/27 CPI expectations are stalling = Enough to extinguish COPOMs dovish aspirations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1977785189553312022)  2025-10-13T17:15Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazil - the implied probability of Januarys edged up on the back of below-consensus mid-month CPI prints (headline inflation is back to the 4% handle) and gradually moderating inflation expectations but these positives can easily be overshadowed by persisting fiscal concerns"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1981719169860067670)  2025-10-24T13:47Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Argentinas midterms - Milei/LLAs decisive victory (40.48%) must translate into decisive pro-growth reforms And the market loves comeback kids (+its a great opportunity to drop the FX band) Argentina - [--] full trading days left before the midterms: ARS still wants to break free Bets that LLA will gain most seats are the highest since the post-PBA collapse (a sign that Milei was able to recover at least some of his agenda) = U.S. money well-spent 🤔 https://t.co/Ninj7Kc4HA Argentina - [--] full trading days left before the midterms: ARS still wants to break free Bets that LLA will gain most seats"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1982613190937858221)  2025-10-27T00:59Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Argentinas sovereign yields collapsed after Milei/LLAs midterm triumph. Valuations are still on the cheap-ish side (vs sovereign fundamentals) but Mileis reform agenda/implementation would be key for further yield compression"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1983508173244739986)  2025-10-29T12:16Z 11.6K followers, 23K engagements


"Brazils local curve is on the cusp of bull-steepening as the market is preparing for [----] rate cuts. Local yields still screen attractive and the fact that [----] CPI expectations are about to get back to the target range addresses one of the central banks pet peeves"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1983553961690104262)  2025-10-29T15:18Z 11.6K followers, 21.6K engagements


"Just a reminder that Brazils official primary balance targets are not sufficient to stabilize/reverse the debt/GDP ratios the latter would require running primary surpluses of 1.75-2% GDP Brazils 34.1% YTD local return ($ unhedged) is awe-inspiring but fiscal noise is getting louder. Nominal and primary deficits widened further in Sept putting more pressure on the govt to come up with additional revenues/spending controls to meet the (imaginary) fiscal target https://t.co/dWQ4GqyrLb Brazils 34.1% YTD local return ($ unhedged) is awe-inspiring but fiscal noise is getting louder. Nominal and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1984274465241666049)  2025-10-31T15:01Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Argentina sovereign bonds Grab your money and run It definitely makes sense to lock in the after-midterms profits (we still have no clear path towards the accumulation of reserves). But Santillis appointment is a good sign for the 2nd round reforms so the game continues"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1985794078852718696)  2025-11-04T19:39Z 11.6K followers, 18.3K engagements


"Brazil - the COPOM day is upon us. Fiscal noise persists but moderating inflation expectations/low diffusion index improve the outlook for rate cuts. The DI curve still prices nothing until Q1-26 - todays board communications will show whether the Dec meeting will be live"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1986059644893094346)  2025-11-05T13:14Z 11.6K followers, 11.5K engagements


"Brazils central bank keeps the policy rate on hold mentions some improvements in inflation but also the need to be vigilant (=high rates) for a prolonged period. Dovish hues started to appear but cutting in Dec would require a more decisive drop in expectations Brazil - the COPOM day is upon us. Fiscal noise persists but moderating inflation expectations/low diffusion index improve the outlook for rate cuts. The DI curve still prices nothing until Q1-26 - todays board communications will show whether the Dec meeting will be live. https://t.co/E3DNc72EJr Brazil - the COPOM day is upon us."  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1986190783867674800)  2025-11-05T21:55Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Getting market access is still a dream for Argentinas government (29s and 30s like the buyback talk though) but Argentinas top companies have no such issues more deals were announced today and Argentinas corporate spread (CEMBI) might be heading back to the 300bps zone"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1987923526498873763)  2025-11-10T16:41Z 11.6K followers, 11.5K engagements


"Brazils adoption of AI ranks among the highest in emerging markets with an unusually elevated adoption for the level of development of the country when compared to others JPMs Vinicius and Cassiana. The most visible effect is through the import of the service itself 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1988316416542732556)  2025-11-11T18:42Z 11.6K followers, 47.9K engagements


"Brazils YTD local bonds return is the 3rd highest since the GFC but it also means that longs are probably elevated and policy moves esp. fiscal - are studied with a magnifying glass. Gov Galipolo watches the target as a hawk but the market started to price in Jans rate cut"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1988648632674054497)  2025-11-12T16:42Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Whats brewing in EM rates - Hawkish pivots perhaps The market started to price in tiny rate hikes in Chile and the Czech Republic in the next 12m. Of course these are not of the same magnitude as in Brazil Brazil is in a class of its own right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1876703246074474896)  2025-01-07T18:51Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"LATAMs fiscal anxiety - Brazil and Colombia have no choice but target spending (revenue is already high as % GDP). Chile is talking about spending cuts even though there might be room on the revenue side LATAMs fiscal anxiety on the rise: Brazil denies reports about boosting Bolsa Familia benefits (the early election campaign anyone) Colombias 6.8% GDP [----] fiscal gap makes the [----] target (5.1%) look like Sci-Fi Chiles 3.2% GDP deficit exceeds the [----] target LATAMs fiscal anxiety on the rise: Brazil denies reports about boosting Bolsa Familia benefits (the early election campaign anyone)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1889078198438445204)  2025-02-10T22:25Z 11.6K followers, 14.8K engagements


"Brazils monetary policy report shows a slightly better near-term inflation path (supporting a whiff of dovishness in the last minutes) but no convergence to target until [----]. Todays lower than expected mid-month CPI is not a game changer as regards the 1st rate cuts timing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1971206776021450935)  2025-09-25T13:34Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"* STURZENEGGER: ARGENTINA WILL HAVE FLOATING FX RATE VERY SOON The US support provides a unique opportunity to drop the FX band but seeing is believing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1978136672303800507)  2025-10-14T16:31Z 11.6K followers, 11.7K engagements


"A useful chart from HSBC showing that India has the smallest exposure in the region (as % of countrys GDP) to Chinas consumption and investment = a better chance to stay on its own growth path defined by reforms (hopefully)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1706325651622441265)  2023-09-25T15:11Z 11.6K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazils fiscal-interest rates axis Brazil is an outlier on this metric. It collects a lot of revenue (as % GDP) but spends about 1/5 of it on debt service. Mexico/Nigeria/India can mitigate the debt service issue by boosting revenue collection. Brazil needs to spend less"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1986508313178071386)  2025-11-06T18:57Z 11.6K followers, 112K engagements


"Brazil A disinflation nation Headline inflation is back to the 4% handle surprising to the downside in Oct. The diffusion index stayed close to 50% (a good sign). But expectations are easing at a snails pace = only 65% probability of Jans rate cut implied by the DI curve"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1988238874519183530)  2025-11-11T13:34Z 11.6K followers, 45.7K engagements


"Romanias elections - The Romanian leu heaves a huge sigh of relief after the pro-European presidential candidate Dan wins the second round of the elections (with a comfortable margin) EM orthodox policy in action - Romanias central bank is letting the currency (RON) to act as a shock absorber/escape valve. Letting FX go while maintaining high interest rates is a powerful combo that can kickstart an adjustment process without sacrificing international reserves https://t.co/KBfiZ9RqxK EM orthodox policy in action - Romanias central bank is letting the currency (RON) to act as a shock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1924265351300493449)  2025-05-19T00:46Z 11.6K followers, [---] engagements


"The Colombian peso is not psyched about the fiscal rules suspension reports (I suspect the IMF/rating agencies are not psyched either). The central bank might further weaken support for COP if it cuts again after yesterdays downside CPI surprise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/1932457360968110261)  2025-06-10T15:18Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Colombia = Brazil [---] Colombias central bank co-director called for clear tightening after the shocking min wage hike. The central bank however will have to overcome one small problem extremely dovish (and vocal) Minister of Finance Avila is a voting member of the board https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009291441718112558 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009291441718112558"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2009291441718112558)  2026-01-08T15:49Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"China - CNY internationalization and EM: = CNY-denominated debt can now be found in FX Debt Composition pie-charts of some major EMs = CNY bonds account for 1.4% of Hungarys foreign currency debt - the same share as JPY-denominated debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2011088485416124817)  2026-01-13T14:50Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazils updated public debt projections are out - and the Divida Bruta new path looks even more brutal. I think that the underlying GDP growth and policy rate projections are on the rosy side but this is how the National Treasury sees the situation right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2011130256304783705)  2026-01-13T17:36Z 11.5K followers, 45.9K engagements


"China is sticking to its drip-drip stimulus/CNY appreciation game plan which now includes a 25bps cut in structural loan rates. From the wider EM perspective guiding CNY stronger sends an important signal for EMFX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2011841104065237041)  2026-01-15T16:41Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"EM currencies are taking the latest bout of geopolitical noise in stride. Central Europes FX is doing particularly well today as commentators discuss the outlook for deeper policy cohesion in Europe and more hedging of U.S. assets in the future"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2013645818939560047)  2026-01-20T16:12Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"No objections from CLP to Chiles new cabinet announcements including Jorge Quirozs nomination as Minister of Finance Addressing fiscal issues will be a top priority for the technocratic team we (and local bonds) keep an eye on the 90-day action plan which has [--] tax bills"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2013999062836531638)  2026-01-21T15:36Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"EM local debt continues to kick the proverbial derriere this year buoyed by high real and nominal yields and $ jitters. Tight spreads are still a headwind for EM sovereign bonds especially IG"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2014328307580366913)  2026-01-22T13:24Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Are Trkiyes local bonds catching a second wind Todays hawkish 100bps rate cut boosted the central banks credibility improving the outlook for duration and it comes on the heels of solid fiscal adjustment in 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2014364876701901131)  2026-01-22T15:49Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazil managed to post a small basic balance surplus in [----] (current account + FDI) despite a larger than expected seasonal outflow of reinvested earnings in Dec. Both the current account and FDI appear to have stabilized (12m trailing) going into the election year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2015819078661800264)  2026-01-26T16:08Z 11.5K followers, 17.6K engagements


"Hungary Is the central banks premature rate cut a risk to local bonds The only brave soul who expects -25bps tomorrow is JPMs Jose Cerveira. Local rates still look attractive vs fundamentals but there is an element of surprise now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2015825458168786967)  2026-01-26T16:33Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile pausing for longer = Colombia frontloading hikes (Brazil 2.0) = Hungary to cut or not to cut (hopefully the latter) = South Africa sizing the room for more easing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2015827585234514272)  2026-01-26T16:42Z 11.1K followers, 17.3K engagements


"Korean Won (KRW) every little helps KRW staged a nice rally following reports that the National Pension Services increased [----] target weights for domestic assets (reversing an earlier decision). We also keep an eye on JPY given the still elevated correlation with KRW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2015833004149530819)  2026-01-26T17:03Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Hungarys rate pause - A huge sigh of relief. The unanimous decision reflected orthodox reasoning (elevated service CPI worrisome household expectations) brightening the outlook for local duration and making HUF one of the happiest kids on the EMFX block today. A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile pausing for longer = Colombia frontloading hikes (Brazil 2.0) = Hungary to cut or not to cut (hopefully the latter) = South Africa sizing the room for more easing A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016184563785936941)  2026-01-27T16:20Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazils tiny downside mid-month CPI surprise is not a game-changer for the central bank. My baseline for tomorrow is a pause + softer language signaling a small rate cut in March. Should be enough to support investors interest in local bonds (ceteris paribus)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016186974067892278)  2026-01-27T16:30Z 11.5K followers, 68.5K engagements


"Brazil - out-of-consensus calls for tomorrow's rate-setting meetings are BTG Pactual (-25bps) and BofA (-50bps) Brazils tiny downside mid-month CPI surprise is not a game-changer for the central bank. My baseline for tomorrow is a pause + softer language signaling a small rate cut in March. Should be enough to support investors interest in local bonds (ceteris paribus). https://t.co/poy9dsaGYw Brazils tiny downside mid-month CPI surprise is not a game-changer for the central bank. My baseline for tomorrow is a pause + softer language signaling a small rate cut in March. Should be enough to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016209239774056472)  2026-01-27T17:58Z 11.5K followers, 12.7K engagements


"Minor macro surprises are probably not game changers for most EM central banks but the weak USD policy could be a different story if sustained"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016285592623931587)  2026-01-27T23:02Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"U.S. Dollars bearish bias and EM debt - The EM Exceptionalism thesis helped to lift EM debt after the liberation day. Still FX has been an important contributor to EM local bonds total return including this year. Stronger EMFX also helps EM sovereign spreads. @EricFine123"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016542746987704507)  2026-01-28T16:03Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"CNY internationalization and EM - seeing Bloomberg reports that Brazil plans to make issuance in the yuan in [----] China - CNY internationalization and EM: = CNY-denominated debt can now be found in FX Debt Composition pie-charts of some major EMs = CNY bonds account for 1.4% of Hungarys foreign currency debt - the same share as JPY-denominated debt China - CNY internationalization and EM: = CNY-denominated debt can now be found in FX Debt Composition pie-charts of some major EMs = CNY bonds account for 1.4% of Hungarys foreign currency debt - the same share as JPY-denominated debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016574606354604268)  2026-01-28T18:10Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Brazil - Its a pause And a state-of-the-art communication regarding the next move. Perfection. Brazils tiny downside mid-month CPI surprise is not a game-changer for the central bank. My baseline for tomorrow is a pause + softer language signaling a small rate cut in March. Should be enough to support investors interest in local bonds (ceteris paribus). https://t.co/poy9dsaGYw Brazils tiny downside mid-month CPI surprise is not a game-changer for the central bank. My baseline for tomorrow is a pause + softer language signaling a small rate cut in March. Should be enough to support investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016626975066988713)  2026-01-28T21:38Z 11.1K followers, 51K engagements


"= The only remaining EM policy cliffhanger of the week is Colombias rate-setting meeting on Friday. = The market expectations are still on the bloodthirsty side (+250bps in 12m) but Pres Trumps bearish dollar comments shaved off 25bps or so since yesterday A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile pausing for longer = Colombia frontloading hikes (Brazil 2.0) = Hungary to cut or not to cut (hopefully the latter) = South Africa sizing the room for more easing A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile pausing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016627330546794677)  2026-01-28T21:39Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements


"South Africa local bonds on a lookout for new catalysts. The central banks verdict (a pause) left room for rate cuts (lower CPI fcsts) but importantly - the next budget will have to deliver a positive surprise (against the backdrop of stretched valuations and positioning)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2016911487122497910)  2026-01-29T16:29Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Colombia frontloads rate hikes (+100bps) to address a strong increase in inflation expectations Kudos to the central bank but the decision was split (2 votes for a rate CUT) underscoring the extent of the pre- and post-election policy challenges A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile pausing for longer = Colombia frontloading hikes (Brazil 2.0) = Hungary to cut or not to cut (hopefully the latter) = South Africa sizing the room for more easing A big week for EM central banks: = Brazil the timeline of rate cuts revealed = Chile pausing for longer ="  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2017314096308179307)  2026-01-30T19:08Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"Argentinas sovereign spread is making another attempt to get closer to the B-rated peers the BCRAs formal $$$ purchase program is a major positive here. The BCRA bought just over $1bn in Jan and the annual $$$ purchase target is no longer Sci-Fi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2017320639586029829)  2026-01-30T19:34Z 11.5K followers, 21.4K engagements


"@liberaldeantoo2 BB+ Not without further structural reforms my friend 🙂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2017324093645656236)  2026-01-30T19:48Z 11.1K followers, [----] engagements


"India as an EM Fixed Income story - Does the FY 2026/27 budget help Revenue projections are conservative but real local yields are low vs. fundamentals and higher than expected gross borrowing + slower pace of fiscal consolidation create extra headwinds. @angusshillingto"  
[X Link](https://x.com/NGurushina/status/2018399965567942936)  2026-02-02T19:03Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements

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