#  @MinusCherry Minus Cherry Minus Cherry posts on X about $mh, in the, business, company the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1520667270107779072/interactions)  - [--] Week [---] -11% - [--] Month [-----] +126% - [--] Months [------] +417% - [--] Year [------] +1,066% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1520667270107779072/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -36% - [--] Months [--] +147% - [--] Year [--] +300% ### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1520667270107779072/followers)  - [--] Week [---] +0.50% - [--] Month [---] +15% - [--] Months [---] +180% - [--] Year [---] +360% ### CreatorRank: undefined [#](/creator/twitter::1520667270107779072/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) [finance](/list/finance) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [countries](/list/countries) [currencies](/list/currencies) [social networks](/list/social-networks) **Social topic influence** [$mh](/topic/$mh) #39, [in the](/topic/in-the), [business](/topic/business), [company](/topic/company), [market](/topic/market), [share](/topic/share), [growth](/topic/growth), [i see](/topic/i-see), [note](/topic/note), [$vrsn](/topic/$vrsn) #4 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@plasticnewt3](/creator/undefined) [@peakcorruption](/creator/undefined) [@atelicinvest](/creator/undefined) [@ernestwongbwm](/creator/undefined) [@biberleuer](/creator/undefined) [@santirobledo](/creator/undefined) [@grandtokamak](/creator/undefined) [@highyieldharry](/creator/undefined) [@27xvii](/creator/undefined) [@bondifrench](/creator/undefined) [@rubicon59](/creator/undefined) [@stockgeektv](/creator/undefined) [@hvntting](/creator/undefined) [@larryjamieson](/creator/undefined) [@lionheartinves1](/creator/undefined) [@zissoucapital](/creator/undefined) [@toffcap](/creator/undefined) [@olivierr](/creator/undefined) [@tidefallcapital](/creator/undefined) [@jimmydagreek76](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH)](/topic/$mh) [Verisign, Inc. (VRSN)](/topic/$vrsn) [Copart, Inc. (CPRT)](/topic/$cprt) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Stride, Inc. (LRN)](/topic/$lrn) [Five Below, Inc. (FIVE)](/topic/$five) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Would a dividend reinstatement qualify If so I think Cineplex (TSE:CGX) is an interesting play; they had to cut their dividend due to the pandemic (previously operated as a REIT). The cut forced 1/5th of all shareholders to sell. Given US mutual funds are unable to purchase Canadian equities and the reserved nature of Canadian mutual funds CGX has yet to see the +200% run-up that their closest peer Cinemark (NYSE: CNK) experienced (comparatively CGX has treaded flat). I built a model on a movie-by-movie basis and see them re-instating the dividend in H2'FY25E (management signaled they'll" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1846645709069504585) 2024-10-16T20:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Dye & Durham $DND.TO Failing Product Revenue Recognition Irregularities & CEO With Serious Ethical Concerns Flagship product monthly traffic down 60% near-term catalysts to see material churn in real estate law segment with existential risk to business law segment with overstated revenues by 30% https://substack.com/home/post/p-151482897 https://substack.com/home/post/p-151482897" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1856106634390712827) 2024-11-11T22:48Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "(4/5) Their business law segment currently owns 2/3 of licenses to allow for online search in Ontario; that renewal comes up in FY26E and a former marketing manager has stated that the process will be opened to more peers" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1856106644783915504) 2024-11-11T22:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "That could be an explanation - think I have an inherent bias as speaking to people who've been involved with acquiring DND (all the way back to [----] when he owned OneMove) there have been concerns around Proud's value of the books not aligning to the market. I think my question to you then is why not let the market ride out this cycle upswing so his options have a higher chance of exercising" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1856350958776684943) 2024-11-12T14:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Were those transactions the private placements If so those may also be with Plantro. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Cannacord leading this deal. They've underwritten quite a few deals that have been 0'd in the past couple of years. Thing is you'd think so right But BMO provided financing to Nuvei CIBC provided financing to Lightspeed and both were exposed by Spruce Point. I'm not saying that I'm right and the banks are wrong but there's enough precedence to make me very wary here" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1856355031135469733) 2024-11-12T15:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@aseoane123 @biberleuer @Santi_Robledo @GrandTokamak @HighyieldHarry @27XVII @Bondifrench I'm seeing transactions expanded from 35k to 40k since [----] per the graph So in the back half of [----] pretty big up-tick - makes sense to me" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1857125242939781599) 2024-11-14T18:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@guastywinds I think the report was focusing on much of that growth could be fabricated and the legitimate is driven by underwriting for subprime consumers not served by any other player specifically changing their underwriting algorithm this year to allow for lower credit consumers" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1869465590546801069) 2024-12-18T19:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@rubicon59 How do you feel about $SEZL given their public peers have reported higher than expected losses especially given $SEZL apparently targets lower credit consumers + consumer being squeezed generally (see McDonalds + other QSR SSS struggling)" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1927124149681414640) 2025-05-26T22:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@stockgeekTV Haha can see that. Personally his involvement gives me cautious optimism for the stock at least. Also on the Taco bit take a look at this Reddit thread posted [--] days ago - safe to say no one ever really just orders [--] serving https://www.reddit.com/r/jackinthebox/comments/1lyjske/would_employees_get_mad_at_someone_ordering_8/ https://www.reddit.com/r/jackinthebox/comments/1lyjske/would_employees_get_mad_at_someone_ordering_8/" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1944955773894709451) 2025-07-15T03:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Great read. Do you see the returns coming in the form of just buybacks or do you think dividends could also be on the cards My train of thought is that they are essentially steady-state 15% - 20% FCF yield.if they initiate a dividend program alongside the buy-back case to be made they might trade above $DBD as you have equity income funds add this to their portfolio and this becomes even more attractive. Just curious but overall really great read and thanks for putting this out here" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1950909610568700115) 2025-07-31T13:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "1) More conviction in the $MH potential short (posted long form write-up on VIC will circulate post 45-day period) as they reported Q1 [----] earnings yesterday. The gave [----] full-year guidance revenue growth of (4%).well below the long-term revenue growth range marketed of +5%. They claim it's due to the one-time cyclicity in the K-12 market and that FY [----] will suffer from a lower fiscal budget for their end-market that should be rectified come FY [----]. I doubt it; see below:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956351458250559909) 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "As an update on $MH it has been approximately two months since my initial post on VIC so I'm now able to share the contents of that write-up. While not as exciting as shorting at the expected $20 pre-IPO (when I started looking at the name) or $17 at IPO I don't foresee any of the headwinds impacting the stock + business going away anytime soon. See the thread below for more specifics but overall: 1) You have a majority owner (85%) that is incentivized to sell large chunks quickly post-lockup 2) 20% discounting for their K-12 segment (50% of revenues) 3) A recently revived lawsuit from" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1975197065459224923) 2025-10-06T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "As an update on $VRSN they released a very strange 8-K on Friday rebuking the Google AdSense bear case that has been circulating post my longer form notes posted to VIC. Given the phrasing of the short sellers faulty and incorrect analysis I can only assume that they were mentioning the VIC post [--] weeks ago. Anyways spending some time this weekend I have little faith that the domains impacted will actually be 2% given previous disclosure by their own CEO alongside other industry sources and find the entire situation strange. See below: $VRSN - was initially looking at as a long now flipped" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982801373985972595) 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$LRN down -30% as bear case of COVID funding washing out is playing out - not 1-to-1 but something to consider for $MH as they've also been a benefactor of ESSER funding over the last [--] years; gives a flavor for what **could** happen While it isn't as exciting as when it was supposed to IPO at $20 or when it IPO'd at $17 I still believe $MH could be a good funding short given the above mentioned tailwinds aren't necessarily going away anytime soon. If this spikes back to $14 - $17 could be good to short While it isn't as exciting as when it was supposed to IPO at $20 or when it IPO'd at $17 I" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1983274441250640238) 2025-10-28T20:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Something interesting to note re: $VRSN is recent developments at SEDO Team Internet Group and parked domains. SEDO owned by IONOS saw revenue fall by 66% in Q3 after its shift to Google RSOC was lackluster. Google's also clamping down harder on RSOC - they've struggled to the point where IONOS is looking to sell SEDO. Additionally Team Internet Group is now also looking to sell its domain business. If this were temporary/cyclical I feel the companies would hold on to these assets; however they've likely recognized the terminal value is structurally impaired here. AdSense for domains is also" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1990614147034124625) 2025-11-18T02:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "On $MH spiked 40% over the last week post the Q2 print. I believe it was due to a combination of tight float and high SI into the print (also fears after $LRN reported that public education stocks would also see some weakness). Important to note as well that this was the last earnings call before Platinum Equity's lock-ups expire. Beat comes from 14% growth in higher education versus -1% - 0% expectations largely coming from increased penetration in existing users vs. signing on new institutions was my read. Management also credited some of this growth to the adoption of AI products (which" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1990615898479026637) 2025-11-18T02:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$CGX (TSE:CGX) - Cineplex is a Canadian film-exhibition business (think movie theatres). They trade on a consensus TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA multiple of 6.0x however a movie-by-movie build gives a TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA of 5.0x. This is the thesis: Shares of Cineplex (TSE:CGX) have fallen over 50% since the WHO declared COVID-19 as a global pandemic which saw the company cut its dividend and enter a period where substantial year-over-year losses were incurred. Before the dividend cut CGX was trading as a REIT (as seen with their IPO branding of Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund) and the cut itself" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1846634046639820937) 2024-10-16T19:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Sorry Below is a short description of the opportunity: $CGX (TSE:CGX) - Cineplex is a Canadian film-exhibition business (think movie theatres). ___ They trade on a consensus TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA multiple of 6.0x however a movie-by-movie build gives a TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA of 5.0x. This is the thesis: shares of Cineplex (TSE:CGX) have fallen over 50% since the WHO declared COVID-19 as a global pandemic which saw the company cut its dividend and enter a period where substantial year-over-year losses were incurred. Before the dividend cut CGX was trading as a REIT (as seen with their IPO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1846635066908463134) 2024-10-16T19:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@LionheartInves1 What do you see as the catalyst in the net-nets you've invested in I only ask since [--] years seems pretty near-term to an extent; or is it all over the place" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1846646193818046936) 2024-10-16T20:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@plasticnewt3 How do you feel about competition Have done a lot of research on DND and am a short personally given Proud and the deterioration of how many customers use the product. Thoughts on peers like Closer & LDD" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856070056435683603) 2024-11-11T20:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ZissouCapital @ToffCap Oh interesting. Think that's a huge catalyst where US mutual funds will finally be able to buy $AIF.TO. Not a lot of names with the quality the company has in the public markets. Strange how much of the ownership base comes from active investors versus passive investors today" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856084219677814890) 2024-11-11T21:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Fair. I was looking into this and think a huge thing is most peers are private. Could be wrong but in my diligence peers like Closer are seeing 1-2 new clients a day from DND. One thing in DND's favor as you mentioned is the Telus Assyst capability which none can really replicate. I think something interesting too is in Canada bulk of the market is actually the lower volume real estate law firms so 30%-40% are from the higher volume firms with the remainder being smaller independents. So the smaller independents that were locked in Feb [----] are looking to switch off entirely in Feb 2025." [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856103685799006685) 2024-11-11T22:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "(5/5) Serious ethical concerns around Proud and the board. Chair of the Audit committee owns 1% of total S/O with precedence of Proud gaming disclosure to buyers and investors" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856106646826529226) 2024-11-11T22:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@atelicinvest I think the downside here may come from your time horizon. If it takes a business 4-5 years to realize a 50% discount your IRR isn't as attractive versus that on a 2-3 year time horizon and it becomes more attractive to just buy the S&P" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856113402495615387) 2024-11-11T23:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@atelicinvest Fair. I guess the only names I've come across like these are low single-digit growers with low float so I guess bias on my end" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856113857900548571) 2024-11-11T23:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@biberleuer @Santi_Robledo @GrandTokamak @HighyieldHarry @27XVII @Bondifrench Likewise - you'd think they would see what I see but again could be very very wrong. Thank you for the visibility here as I continue to learn" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856360091873665428) 2024-11-12T15:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@o_li_vi_err How do you feel about the revenue CAGR's falling FOR DoProcess & Ghost Practise See below for the first-time disclosure in Q4'FY24A & the presentation today $DND.TO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856361566087627169) 2024-11-12T15:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TidefallCapital It really is crazy. Makes sense though when you consider IR has historically been outsourced" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856452866975694929) 2024-11-12T21:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@JimmyDaGreek76 For legal reasons I wont publicly be speaking on the name for the next little bit - sorry but wont comment for now" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1860418248824549531) 2024-11-23T20:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@nyseSRCL @SeanSilcoff @globeandmail Do find it fascinating that the debate behind this stock has been "Matt yes" or "Matt no" over the past [--] months" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1867302650905018781) 2024-12-12T20:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I was doing some work on this before the report and am fairly confident on the bit of subscriber growth being overstated as they began soft forcing consumer sign ups. Internally the company changed the way they went to the market for these subscriptions in a way that was exceptionally misleading. Would say its far more likely to be the case than that thesis being a reach" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1869445266128224592) 2024-12-18T18:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Jaro_rogue They started this in April per my checks for all new customer sign-ups" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1869451249806139807) 2024-12-18T18:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yeah fully agree. Was doing some work before on the name before this report but I had concerns around how they disclose delinquency rates in their IR (delinquency = miss 2nd paymentso if the customers miss the 3rd or 4th payments they arent really included). Theres also a Facebook group called Sezzle Up which shows how ridiculous in my opinion this service has gotten. Only BNPL that lets you buy gifftcards use it on Amazon etc. Growth driven from change in GTM for the subscriber business (have gathered some evidence they began the auto sign-up in April which checks out with wording changes in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1869468496163426363) 2024-12-18T19:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "How accurate do you feel credit card data may be for $FIVE Know the name has traded off CC data for the past few quarters but have surprised analysts on both the buy-side and sell-side; think $FIVE might actually be materially cash and debit based given the demographic. Not that I disagree with your view I'm personally really bullish on Q1'2025 as they lap in my opinion a cyclical issue with Squishmallows but just curious on the CC build to get to your Y/Y growth figure" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1878842803624538636) 2025-01-13T16:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@rubicon59 Is that because they are "too big" to consider this kind of stuff or do you feel the accusations are based on flimsy analysis" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1879594224884355376) 2025-01-15T18:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ResearchHL @Sophoninvest Fair rebuttal. I'm mostly concerned about recent metrics and if they were inflated pre-IPO. As you mentioned though there is no true alternative that I see as of yet to Reddit so that itself may be bullish" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1902165021913727341) 2025-03-19T01:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Read this somewhere on here but as dangerous as it sounds to say this not too sure if it's entirely on her. Paper Source went bankrupt during COVID and 80% of their business was brick-and-mortar. Forever [--] was coming out with restructuring. At least for the earnings call I thought she did a good job at resetting expectations and maintaining that beat-and-raise cadence they set late last year. Up 9% AH so let's see how the stock opens tomorrow" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1902471065542033534) 2025-03-19T21:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@HatfieldCapital @ValleyFallsRI Yeah. She's not without fault I'll say that but I think very very far from a disaster. Let's see" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1902502129572741336) 2025-03-19T23:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Trying to be more consistent with getting some of my ideas out there - as a start just posted this $FIVE 6-8 month long uploaded to VIC on March 13th. Not as actionable now as the thesis has largely played out. Came across another interesting 6-8 month buy last night hoping to write that up today over the holiday/tomorrow morning and get that out. Anyways if interested linked work is here: https://minuscherry.substack.com/p/archive-long-6-8-months-five-below https://minuscherry.substack.com/p/archive-long-6-8-months-five-below" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941149835349926103) 2025-07-04T14:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Quick piece on $JACK and why I see this returning 20% - 50% by the end of [----]. Has been written up a ton before on the turnaround initatives but I noticed the elephant in the room remained to be SSS performance/catalyst on SSS recovering. Have put together some of my thoughts on why I see a 500bps beat in Q3 FY2025E. Anyways it can be found here https://open.substack.com/pub/minuscherry/p/long-6-8-months-jack-in-the-box-incr=p4qa4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941631573230604507) 2025-07-05T22:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "1) JACK shares have lost 80% of value since July [----] falling 50% YTD - many investors remain bearish on near-term SSS performance citing a lack of a catalyst; however there is a clear catalyst driving a significant beat to Q3 FY2025E numbers and beyond" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941631712183697432) 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2) JACK recently raised the prices of their Tacos from $0.99 for [--] to $1.29 - $1.99 (differing sources) from April [----] to June [----] - a Franchisee discloses Tacos made up 30% of sales and on this math I get a 500bps beat to SSS in Q3 FY2025E" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941631750825750793) 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3) Recent potential activist involvement in Biglari Capital Corp is a positive - known to get buy up minority stakes in underperforming fast-food / fast-casual chains and push for change; Biglari has signaled that they will be purchasing more which likely drives in more merger arb pods etc. which is going to force shorts to cover (short interest at 35% is asinine for a business thats not a fraud)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941631785978507311) 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4) See parallels to Cracker Barrel (CRBL) stock that has returned 67% this year from April [----] as turnaround initiatives are priced in - overall I see JACK as a stock that returns 20% - 50% through to year-end so a great way to get some of that alpha in H2 2025" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941631824934891965) 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "& that's fair. From what I see at least people don't just buy [--] serving of these tacos; sometimes buying 2-3 given the smaller size / can justify it given the lower prices. So on any given order even if the customer orders [--] servings that won't move the attach rate-up that much and seeing how much of a focus this is on social media communities I'd wager it should at least drive a material impact to SSS. I think the odds that they come in at-least low negative single-digits are pretty strong and that can maybe be enough to start regaining some of the valuation premium that's been lost. Let's" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944750398314614983) 2025-07-14T13:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Short-Bias $MH before they IPO today - TLDR; PE-backed IPOs perform bad $MH will be no stranger as high-leverage metrics screen well for quant shorts as market makers do what they do will see reverse-gamma which is multiplied by the fact this thing has 15% float. Additionally they're losing pricing quick tailwinds of school budgets being inflated post COVID are over / phasing out and publicly available contract and renewal documents indicate 15% discounting in just the last few months on renewals. See 35% - 60% downside. Last big point is that they've been underpaying author royalties for the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948368880222527836) 2025-07-24T13:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "P.S. - Don't let yourself be exit liquidity" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948369416623693851) 2025-07-24T13:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Also good thing to note is that $MH was targeting an initial "$19.00 and $22.00 per share" range. They are now coming in at $17.00 - makes you think about how roadshow demand actually looked since they raised 18% less than the mid-point of the range as of July 18th [----]. Likely had to cut price due to lower demand; thing might pop today / next few days but underlying investors clearly had to be convinced to take this on their books. Good context to have if considering a position. Lower proceeds raised also makes the leverage issue worse since they intended to pay-down debt here with the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948379539991650656) 2025-07-24T13:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MapleTreeCap Nice. Any thoughts on why you think they can grow 3% annually next [--] years and into perpetuity I'm short-biased right now and think they are seeing a lot of pressure on the pricing side in a saturated market with not much growth" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1951390882688803203) 2025-08-01T21:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Quick re-visit $JACK pre-Q3 earnings this week. Still cautiously optimistic albeit stock has swung up 20% and down 20% since the initial post here. Hoping the Taco price increases and excl. Taco price increases can cushion SSS and management gives somewhat bullish commentary through to year-end. Think if this works out the upwards revision cycle into the new FY will be a huge catalyst. That being said few additional things to note" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952361266191696199) 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1) New location openings doing pretty well so far - lines are stretching out and dining capacity is full. Interesting to note; closing underperforming stores and new stores opening should benefit from the initial surge" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952361268406301170) 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "2) Brought back wedges and initial checks seem positive - stores are sold out so should be a good tailwind. See this Reddit Post and comments below: https://www.reddit.com/r/jackinthebox/comments/1mawhep/potato_wedges_are_back/ https://www.reddit.com/r/jackinthebox/comments/1mawhep/potato_wedges_are_back/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952361271052951632) 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3) Think street expectations for SSS are very compressed right now and assuming traffic doesn't give think they can surprise on the upside. Let's see in [--] days" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952361273225593263) 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Update on $JACK after the pretty disappointing print last week; SSS were down (6.4%) largely driven by lower transactions. Price increases only came in at 0.2%. Few places I was wrong: 1) Timing think a lot of these locations still had the promotions on these tacos / increases still flowing through - likely see this play out more in Q4 2) Attach-rate =/ % of AUV - @stockgeekTV pointed this out to me and was able to come to the conclusion that tacos are likely closer to 10% - 15% of total AUV. 30% price-increase on that with the timing lag made it tough to see material impact in this quarter" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954896687362707759) 2025-08-11T13:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "That being said stock is down 8.6% from the initial pitch-price of $20.19 and since black-out is over I see Biglari continuing to buy. With shares short 34% of float (per Yahoo finance) still a strong technical catalyst assuming they are still interesting in upping their stake. A 9% drawdown on what I thought was a pretty bad miss isn't.so bad I'm willing to see how this shakes out into Q4 and hopefully a positive FY [----] guidance range on that call. If things do not improve by then / favorable guidance is not provided then it no longer becomes that attractive of a R/R unless there are new" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954896689799614570) 2025-08-11T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ResearRagnarok If I'm underrated you guys are slept on entirely - craziest hit-rate % on ideas I've seen here haha" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954903869336461349) 2025-08-11T13:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "3) This is despite enrollments being down from [----] - $MH using NCES data stated that enrollments were at 56m for the year. Using the same source for [----] (likely real-time) the number was at 49.5m a 17% decline. Yet $MH grew the K-12 business by 177%" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1956351462650368506) 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4) To compare the Higher Education segment (Universities Colleges etc.) just saw growth of 19% over the same period; how did the K-12 segment growth this quickly Full write-up to be released on Substack mid-September covers this more (currently only on VIC) but purely driven by ESSER funding that expires next year" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1956351465246650779) 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5) Important to note K-12 business was 37% of business in FY [----] and is now effectively 50% today. Given the materially higher mix and nominal growth rate $MH is extremely exposed to the multi-year trend of school board budgets being deflated back to the mean (less so cutting more so phasing out of temporary stimulus into the market)" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1956351467209601510) 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6) This isn't' just a FY [----] problem for $MH as is being portrayed but is a problem for the years ahead. Funny to also note how in the FY [----] report for the K-12 business their TAM was $6.6b but as of today they market their TAM as $9.3b despite enrollments down 17%. Likely per customer revenues were up given inflated school board budgets but that's all reversing here" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1956351469331882067) 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "7) Note that growth in the K-12 business was 4.1% in FY [----] and negative 7% in FY [----] until ESSER funding drove the 10% - 15% Y/Y growth rates from FY [----] to FY 2025" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956351470896398835) 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "8) Again have a lot more thoughts here but out of respect for VIC requirements and rules I will share more information that I put into that write-up when I can which is mid-September" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956351472737644967) 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$MH stock up 10% as Goldman sees 92% upside over the next 12-months. I wonder who the lead under-writer here was. $MH Goldman initiates McGraw Hill as buy Goldman says its bullish on shares of the education solutions company. We initiate coverage of McGraw Hill (MH) with a Buy rating and $27 12-month price target. $MH Goldman initiates McGraw Hill as buy Goldman says its bullish on shares of the education solutions company. We initiate coverage of McGraw Hill (MH) with a Buy rating and $27 12-month price target" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957461169293144379) 2025-08-18T15:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$MH Add it to the list not surprised to see this. - "The complaint cites at least [----] instances of overcharges. In Osceola County one overcharge exceeded $279000. Another example cited by the state involved a textbook title sold to Miami-Dade County at a discount but offered to nine other districts at higher prices resulting in more than $250000 in additional costs." 🚨 BREAKING: Gov. Ron DeSantis announces legal action against [--] major textbook publishers "that have been exploiting our school districts at the expense of our taxpayers and at the expense of our students." "The state of Florida" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1958204773770924275) 2025-08-20T16:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@ErnestWongBWM Any thoughts on $CPRT upper management I suspect it's a case where they are riding on the coat-tails of the prior generation / am not too impressed by what's been alleged" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963981692130996313) 2025-09-05T15:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "No position but am leaning towards a short-bias more so after the call yesterday largely due to the RBA & IAA thesis (see you speak about this nice) and just some governance concerns. Might type up some of my thoughts this weekend since I'm surprised some of this stuff isn't more documented on the governance side at-least" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963983915330244834) 2025-09-05T15:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Maku_Capital @ErnestWongBWM Boys-only club extravagant company parties at shooting ranches (99% men) execs spending company $ on prostitutes etc. - take it with a grain of salt but not something you really want to be hearing for a "compounder". (again can all just be disgruntled ex-employees)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963985053249081491) 2025-09-05T15:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Get your points but you have to consider the implications IF the claims re: sexual harassment company money being spent on prostitutes massive drinking culture in the office / during meetings are all true. Does it matter for EPS Probably not right now (no means is this fraud) but if it is true it speaks to the character of some of the VPs and higher-ups. Will they be entirely truthful especially at a time where IAA is taking share Sure the CEO and CFO are the face of the company but they rely on the alleged perpetrators a lot as well given how lean the company is (in my opinion). Do you also" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963989430437351602) 2025-09-05T15:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "IAA seems to be growing despite these cyclical headwinds which I guess is the biggest cause for concern for me. I do understand there is nuance in the contracts but 3P data has a material variance which I guess you can explain to the progressive contract but this explanation to me at least raises some more questions than answers. What are your thoughts on the IAA share-gain thesis" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965395384601071857) 2025-09-09T12:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Quick note on recent controversy and potential red-flags @ $CPRT which is down 14% YTD so far and is down 24% from its peak share-price of $63.84. A recent lawsuit from the former VP of HR (worked at $CPRT for [--] years) reveals a culture of "debauchery"; this comes at a time when $CPRT is in the most competitive environment they've been in over the last 4-5 years against an insurgent IAA and when company executives are said to show up to meetings drunk.it's not a good sign. See here & below: https://minuscherry.substack.com/p/short-note-controversy-copart-inc" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423511230403043) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, 12.1K engagements "1) A recent lawsuit filed by the former Global VP of Human Relations in April [----] titled Christine Arnold vs. Copart Inc. reveals a culture at CPRT of executives showing up to meetings drunk being caught with prostitute at company sponsored events (and forcing HR to accommodate them) and a large male executive almost cornering the plaintiff and screaming at her when she spoke out against this internally" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423513898041345) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "2) Beyond this a recent May [----] lawsuit alleges that CPRT sells vehicles that are materially different from what a VIN search would give you and forensic analysis of the car however by selling through 3rd-party brokers CPRT creates a figurative black-box shielding them from potential liability" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423517287243840) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3) Additionally countless records of CPRT seemingly tampering with cars to hide damage selling cars factually worse than listed online and sometimes with fake titles / wrong titles in the cars (beyond just CPRT selling a bad used car - this is material differences in advertising)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423521191878891) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4) An ex-employee alleges that CPRT consistently engages in shill-bidding and that they even had an entire department of the company dedicated to the practice" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423524585292207) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5) Interestingly enough the Q3 FY2025 10-Q updated their risk disclosure to include the impact of "government investigation" - not a smoking gun but the coincidence in timing is a little suspicious:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423528137932838) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6) CPRT has increased their share of the total industry from 41.0% to 60.5% over November [----] to today per 3P data primarily due to weakness in IAA (no functioning website etc.). Now that IAA under new ownership has rectified these issues insurance companies WANT to have EQUAL SHARE amongst the [--] largest salvage vehicle providers and are going to the main driving force in share normalizing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423531803783494) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "7) Market expectations price in 60.5% share at a 9.0x TEV / FY+1 Sales however assuming CPRT share compresses to 50% by 2030E the multiple should re-rate down to 7.0x which gives 20% downside; by then the market should begin to accept the IAA share re-gain thesis leading to underwriting 41% terminal share at a 5.0x multiple giving us 46% downside:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423535733825609) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "8) Note I am neither long nor short but this is purely just a research piece; I am not going to financially benefit in any way. I just think these are interesting developments" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423538720133612) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@dcurras1 Definitely - will caveat that for the controversies at least this is more of a research + investigative piece versus information that would directly impact EPS and FCF (maybe indirectly.) but still things investors should know about when underwriting the thesis" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1965767586542768345) 2025-09-10T13:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "For sure especially in a time like this. I think I recall the Reddit post that's what actually motivated me to look into it further really quick. Thanks for the words and let's see how this plays out Like your earnings review on $CPRT as well gives much better grasp on fundamentals + bull-case" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965770788255957418) 2025-09-10T13:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@invest091 Thank you Likewise really appreciate it" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965777199392563348) 2025-09-10T13:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Thoughts on $UBER and $DASH investing in that market Recent job postings over the last few months suggest they're going to heavily subsidize to try and steal market share as they grow the segment out internally. From a consumer standpoint too if there's a world where I can bundle food delivery + grocery delivery it's attractive. Not sure the benefits but using Amazon and their Prime value proposition as a potential parallel for consumer value proposition. Or is there a world where all [--] can co-exist" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967263540969951731) 2025-09-14T16:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yeah that makes sense. Do you think that's mostly because those large orders can really only be handled by $CART right now given the difference in the courier/shopper demographic I think that might be one of the bigger perceived risks with the name so if you can get comfort on that it's probably a really good name to hold for the next 2-3 years" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967271617207111960) 2025-09-14T16:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1) Platinum Equity owns 85% of the common stock and pension fund documents from The Santa Barbara County Employees Retirement System show they are currently in the market raising their next PE fund. Given $MH has done well for them on a MOIC (likely 2x) and given LPs focus on DPI and $MH being one of their better investments it's likely they sell post-lock up in January [----]. For context the [----] fundraising process was rolled out in late [----] so also likely that this rolls out late [----] to time with the selling of the stake in January [----] (timing works out really well for Platinum)" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1975197068135104764) 2025-10-06T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "8) So when does management have to revise guidance down / we see this start to play out Well recently management has been using the new administration's stance on education as the reason why the K-12 segment has seen struggling growth and that once this year laps all should be back to normal. My issue with that is that I argue this downtrend is more structural than cyclical. What was cyclical was the growth in the segment now you're going to see lower government spending from both parties + lower municipal budgets for elementary and secondary school education. I believe that once management" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1975197096501207534) 2025-10-06T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "While it isn't as exciting as when it was supposed to IPO at $20 or when it IPO'd at $17 I still believe $MH could be a good funding short given the above mentioned tailwinds aren't necessarily going away anytime soon. If this spikes back to $14 - $17 could be good to short into that spike" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1975197100796239912) 2025-10-06T13:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Is definitely a larger market cap name and has historically been relatively stable; can maybe be used as a hedge in a portfolio. Anyways have been looking at a few long ideas too as to not saturate this feed with a bunch of short ideas haha" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1978455273732739452) 2025-10-15T13:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Yep and even .Io and other non-traditionally domains. Long-term a lot of my friends and peers don't view .Com as the "must-have" it sounds like it once was. Think based off the long-term headwinds + the above near-term challenges this is more like a 10x - 15x EBITDA stock at best assuming it continues to pay out FCF in buybacks and dividends. Let's see" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1978510737510117819) 2025-10-15T17:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Hey Mostly from Tegus interviews; an example is attached here. There's similar commentary for $CPRT IAA and insurance companies with the tag "salvage". That being said while insurance companies would LIKE to have [--] equal providers there is a case that working with $CPRT could be materially more accretive than IAA to maintain that share. Where that tension shakes out is crucial to terminal valuation I think" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1979587037150724584) 2025-10-18T16:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This account is a close friend who just made his first post on X Id follow and keep an eye out for ideas hell be putting out. More longs and special situations $AIRO (AIRO Group Holdings Inc.) is an interesting potential short to watch over the next few months. Have a more in-depth write-up that I'm working on and willing to share to anyone interested. To summarize: AIRO is a roll-up of small aerospace businesses with little $AIRO (AIRO Group Holdings Inc.) is an interesting potential short to watch over the next few months. Have a more in-depth write-up that I'm working on and willing to" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1980839174480724077) 2025-10-22T03:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Yeah I agree. Explore more in my longer form write up but I mean in theory just so many things you could consider. Pricing negotiations likely favour the end consumer but with $VRSN whats interesting is any structural reduction in price effectively creates revenue declines given the recurring nature of their revenues. Domains renewing at $10.26 today wont renew at that pricethats more secular though which I will admit there isnt that much visibility on at the moment" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981182687185433016) 2025-10-23T02:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@hvntting @Larryjamieson_ @plasticnewt3 Yes. ICANN is described as very sleepy too so moving pricing will be a likely long process. Also $VRSN and bulls alike point to how they don't have to invest much into their network.the argument works against them in this case" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1981353035604373605) 2025-10-23T13:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Love the charts and fully agree. The ICANN monthly .Com data and mix is not being looked into and a large-part of my notes do hinge on that. Something else to consider is how long will these registrars sacrifice their own margin.2 of the largest growing registrars this year are NameCheap and SpaceShip (SpaceShip owned by NameCheap) and CVC just announced last month they'd be buying them out. For a PE sponsor would they trim costs wherever they could Just a lot here" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981354039942996303) 2025-10-23T13:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Investor_NICK_ Haha I appreciate the words a ton - I was really surprised initially since I expected the call to be relatively positive (+ the data for the quarter was strong). The concerns brought up on the call re: AdSense pricing and domain growth seem to behind the drawdown. Let's see" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981745109394661463) 2025-10-24T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$VRSN - company released a very interesting 8-K todaywill digest and share my thoughts over the weekend but at first glance the wording and aggressiveness towards some of the work is a little harsh as I did state Im also surprised why the stock is down today Haha; but will share thoughts sometime this weekend. I am skeptical of the 2% figure as Im having trouble internally reconciling it" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1981859550962618833) 2025-10-24T23:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2) Im really curious as to how they made these bucketstypically bucket [--] and [--] are correlated as many speculators hold domains and have advertisements on at the same time so it is actually really tough to break it down. I get the initial push-back is that Oh of course its hard for you to but $VRSN can actually look at the data and thats what I thought at first but even the current CEO thinks so See below for his response to an analyst asking about parked domains and why the removed disclosure on the Q2 FY2014A earnings call:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982801379304349821) 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4) Anyways Ive already sourced industry papers and reports that do a robust analysis on actual parked domains and total % of the base but looking at Whois XML API's Q3 [----] Global Domain Activity Report further supports the case these parked domains do make up more than 2% of $VRSN's number. To be conservative I only take confirmed domain parking companies in and They make up 13% of all DNS activity and this excludes parked domains on sites like GoDaddy. http://parklogic.com http://parkingcrew.net http://afternic.com http://namefind.com http://parklogic.com http://parkingcrew.net" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982801384568176938) 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5) [--] of the largest domain parking websites SEDO and BODIS automatically opt users into advertisements and both heavily rely on google see here for SEDO and here for BODIS. BODIS is owned by Team Internet Group (whos stock has been crushed this year) and a PE firm called off their offer to take them private because of these Google Changes GoDaddy the largest domain registrar (and has 80m domains parked) and while they dont explicitly state they use Googles name servers when the Oscars sued them in [----] it came out that they rely on Google to show advertisements on parked domains. Building on" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982801388464668999) 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6) Lastly the nature of the release of the 8-K is really weird. Its like RDDT releasing an 8-K on Reburns note earlier this year on Google changing their algorithm that sent the stock down or CARTs stock going down on news of the Amazon & Kroger partnership. These are not items you typically see 8-Kd and raises more concerns for me. That being said it opens the risk to the short as if the stock does draw down to a certain level whos to say management doesnt try and take steps to reverse the losses; my initial write-up here notes that $VRSN management isnt overtly focused on stock price" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982801393388838926) 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@IndustTourist Could be. Im mostly relying on the bear thesis out there + call commentary today to draw some comparison to $MH exposure to ESSER funding the same way $LRN has some funding exposure. More familiar with $MH than $LRN" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1983376384488874082) 2025-10-29T03:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@IndustTourist Yeah very well could be - and thanks I appreciate that a ton. Public education companies as stocks also seem to be disfavoured a bit by public markets given lumpiness and lack of visibility into some contracts" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1983377268224512397) 2025-10-29T03:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Thanks for the feedback. To your first point no incremental thoughts on the note. Does conflict with online forum posts and threads even over the last few days on NamePros BlackHat World etc. - the domain investors at the conference (those that purely buy domains for value appreciation) likely are willing to take the losses per year (if there are any for them). Not sure if the conference is indicative of total parked domain base either (likely more corporate type of domain investors there versus the average domain speculator that parks their domain) but good data point to have regardless. On" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988094048343630200) 2025-11-11T03:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4) $MH has been a major beneficiary of the post-COVID ESSER funding alongside Federal and State funding. In [----] the K-12 business was $581m. Using run-rate Q1 [----] figures that number is now at $1037m; a 177% increase (almost 2x). This is despite enrollments being down from [----] - MH using NCES data stated that enrollments were at 56m for the year. Using the same source for [----] (likely real-time) the number was at 49.5m a 17% decline. Yet MH grew the K-12 business by 177% To compare the Higher Education segment (universities colleges etc.) just saw growth of 19% over the same period. The" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1975197079338205391) 2025-10-06T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$VRSN - was initially looking at as a long now flipped short over next [--] months. Have more detailed notes I've written up that I can share if interested but general idea is that growth YTD is driven by high-churn registrars through rebates (can use ICANN monthly .Com data to find YTD aggregation. WayBack machine of these registrars shows discounting of 50% in some cases. These discounts are structured as rebates if registrars hit certain growth rates so all the investment falls on registrars. After reading through the data I see growth slowing into Q1 FY2026E and since these registrars" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1978454813286232358) 2025-10-15T13:36Z [---] followers, 12.3K engagements "2) Diving deeper into the growth of the K-12 segment per MH's FY [----] report the K-12 business was $581m. Using run-rate Q1 [----] figures that number is now at $1037m; a 177% increase (almost 2x) https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/t/NYSE_MHP_2019.pdf https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/t/NYSE_MHP_2019.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1956351460150530555) 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3) In January [----] a class-action lawsuit was filed by MH authors against MH claiming that they were underpaid royalties. The breach of contract claims centers on MHs alleged reduction or cessation of royalty payments on revenues generated through its online platform Connect. The case was dismissed in January 2022; however it was reopened in [----]. Cengage recently settled a class action lawsuit from authors alleging very similar violations. Lawsuit alleges for two online platforms MindTap and Cengage Unlimited. Cengage settled in November [----] and announced in April [----] that they are new" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1975197075743596824) 2025-10-06T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@peakcorruption @hvntting @Larryjamieson_ @plasticnewt3 $VRSN would only receive the $10 here. The resellers would accrue all of the additional gains on popular domains; $VRSN just operates the domain base so they wouldnt see that benefit unfortunately" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1998749240340729879) 2025-12-10T13:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@peakcorruption @hvntting @Larryjamieson_ @plasticnewt3 Yeah if theyre allowed to take higher pricing that would help them out a lot here. AdSense was being used on the major parked domain pages - main point of contention is % of total domain base. Will see with time" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1998959111392870440) 2025-12-11T03:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Quick note on recent controversy and potential red-flags @ $CPRT which is down 14% YTD so far and is down 24% from its peak share-price of $63.84. A recent lawsuit from the former VP of HR (worked at $CPRT for [--] years) reveals a culture of "debauchery"; this comes at a time when $CPRT is in the most competitive environment they've been in over the last 4-5 years against an insurgent IAA and when company executives are said to show up to meetings drunk.it's not a good sign. See here & below: https://minuscherry.substack.com/p/short-note-controversy-copart-inc" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423511230403043) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, 12.1K engagements "$VRSN - was initially looking at as a long now flipped short over next [--] months. Have more detailed notes I've written up that I can share if interested but general idea is that growth YTD is driven by high-churn registrars through rebates (can use ICANN monthly .Com data to find YTD aggregation. WayBack machine of these registrars shows discounting of 50% in some cases. These discounts are structured as rebates if registrars hit certain growth rates so all the investment falls on registrars. After reading through the data I see growth slowing into Q1 FY2026E and since these registrars" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1978454813286232358) 2025-10-15T13:36Z [---] followers, 12.3K engagements "Quick piece on $JACK and why I see this returning 20% - 50% by the end of [----]. Has been written up a ton before on the turnaround initatives but I noticed the elephant in the room remained to be SSS performance/catalyst on SSS recovering. Have put together some of my thoughts on why I see a 500bps beat in Q3 FY2025E. Anyways it can be found here https://open.substack.com/pub/minuscherry/p/long-6-8-months-jack-in-the-box-incr=p4qa4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941631573230604507) 2025-07-05T22:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Update on $JACK after the pretty disappointing print last week; SSS were down (6.4%) largely driven by lower transactions. Price increases only came in at 0.2%. Few places I was wrong: 1) Timing think a lot of these locations still had the promotions on these tacos / increases still flowing through - likely see this play out more in Q4 2) Attach-rate =/ % of AUV - @stockgeekTV pointed this out to me and was able to come to the conclusion that tacos are likely closer to 10% - 15% of total AUV. 30% price-increase on that with the timing lag made it tough to see material impact in this quarter" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954896687362707759) 2025-08-11T13:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$LRN down -30% as bear case of COVID funding washing out is playing out - not 1-to-1 but something to consider for $MH as they've also been a benefactor of ESSER funding over the last [--] years; gives a flavor for what **could** happen While it isn't as exciting as when it was supposed to IPO at $20 or when it IPO'd at $17 I still believe $MH could be a good funding short given the above mentioned tailwinds aren't necessarily going away anytime soon. If this spikes back to $14 - $17 could be good to short While it isn't as exciting as when it was supposed to IPO at $20 or when it IPO'd at $17 I" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1983274441250640238) 2025-10-28T20:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "While it isn't as exciting as when it was supposed to IPO at $20 or when it IPO'd at $17 I still believe $MH could be a good funding short given the above mentioned tailwinds aren't necessarily going away anytime soon. If this spikes back to $14 - $17 could be good to short into that spike" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1975197100796239912) 2025-10-06T13:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Short-Bias $MH before they IPO today - TLDR; PE-backed IPOs perform bad $MH will be no stranger as high-leverage metrics screen well for quant shorts as market makers do what they do will see reverse-gamma which is multiplied by the fact this thing has 15% float. Additionally they're losing pricing quick tailwinds of school budgets being inflated post COVID are over / phasing out and publicly available contract and renewal documents indicate 15% discounting in just the last few months on renewals. See 35% - 60% downside. Last big point is that they've been underpaying author royalties for the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948368880222527836) 2025-07-24T13:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$MH stock up 10% as Goldman sees 92% upside over the next 12-months. I wonder who the lead under-writer here was. $MH Goldman initiates McGraw Hill as buy Goldman says its bullish on shares of the education solutions company. We initiate coverage of McGraw Hill (MH) with a Buy rating and $27 12-month price target. $MH Goldman initiates McGraw Hill as buy Goldman says its bullish on shares of the education solutions company. We initiate coverage of McGraw Hill (MH) with a Buy rating and $27 12-month price target" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957461169293144379) 2025-08-18T15:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$MH Goldman initiates McGraw Hill as buy Goldman says its bullish on shares of the education solutions company. We initiate coverage of McGraw Hill (MH) with a Buy rating and $27 12-month price target" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957428232128786580) 2025-08-18T13:03Z 59.2K followers, [----] engagements "7) Market expectations price in 60.5% share at a 9.0x TEV / FY+1 Sales however assuming CPRT share compresses to 50% by 2030E the multiple should re-rate down to 7.0x which gives 20% downside; by then the market should begin to accept the IAA share re-gain thesis leading to underwriting 41% terminal share at a 5.0x multiple giving us 46% downside:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423535733825609) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@ErnestWongBWM Any thoughts on $CPRT upper management I suspect it's a case where they are riding on the coat-tails of the prior generation / am not too impressed by what's been alleged" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963981692130996313) 2025-09-05T15:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Quick re-visit $JACK pre-Q3 earnings this week. Still cautiously optimistic albeit stock has swung up 20% and down 20% since the initial post here. Hoping the Taco price increases and excl. Taco price increases can cushion SSS and management gives somewhat bullish commentary through to year-end. Think if this works out the upwards revision cycle into the new FY will be a huge catalyst. That being said few additional things to note" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952361266191696199) 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4) See parallels to Cracker Barrel (CRBL) stock that has returned 67% this year from April [----] as turnaround initiatives are priced in - overall I see JACK as a stock that returns 20% - 50% through to year-end so a great way to get some of that alpha in H2 2025" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941631824934891965) 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "That being said stock is down 8.6% from the initial pitch-price of $20.19 and since black-out is over I see Biglari continuing to buy. With shares short 34% of float (per Yahoo finance) still a strong technical catalyst assuming they are still interesting in upping their stake. A 9% drawdown on what I thought was a pretty bad miss isn't.so bad I'm willing to see how this shakes out into Q4 and hopefully a positive FY [----] guidance range on that call. If things do not improve by then / favorable guidance is not provided then it no longer becomes that attractive of a R/R unless there are new" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954896689799614570) 2025-08-11T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Fair. I was looking into this and think a huge thing is most peers are private. Could be wrong but in my diligence peers like Closer are seeing 1-2 new clients a day from DND. One thing in DND's favor as you mentioned is the Telus Assyst capability which none can really replicate. I think something interesting too is in Canada bulk of the market is actually the lower volume real estate law firms so 30%-40% are from the higher volume firms with the remainder being smaller independents. So the smaller independents that were locked in Feb [----] are looking to switch off entirely in Feb 2025." [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856103685799006685) 2024-11-11T22:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$MH Add it to the list not surprised to see this. - "The complaint cites at least [----] instances of overcharges. In Osceola County one overcharge exceeded $279000. Another example cited by the state involved a textbook title sold to Miami-Dade County at a discount but offered to nine other districts at higher prices resulting in more than $250000 in additional costs." 🚨 BREAKING: Gov. Ron DeSantis announces legal action against [--] major textbook publishers "that have been exploiting our school districts at the expense of our taxpayers and at the expense of our students." "The state of Florida" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1958204773770924275) 2025-08-20T16:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "🚨 BREAKING: Gov. Ron DeSantis announces legal action against [--] major textbook publishers "that have been exploiting our school districts at the expense of our taxpayers and at the expense of our students." "The state of Florida has learned that some of our school districts were being overcharged by millions of dollars for these instructional materials." "Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier took immediate action and he has led the state filing a lawsuit against McGraw Hill and Savvas Learning for violating state law and taking away valuable resources from Florida schools." @GovRonDeSantis" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1957817690334073247) 2025-08-19T14:51Z 137.6K followers, 56.9K engagements "2) JACK recently raised the prices of their Tacos from $0.99 for [--] to $1.29 - $1.99 (differing sources) from April [----] to June [----] - a Franchisee discloses Tacos made up 30% of sales and on this math I get a 500bps beat to SSS in Q3 FY2025E" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941631750825750793) 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "8) Note I am neither long nor short but this is purely just a research piece; I am not going to financially benefit in any way. I just think these are interesting developments" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423538720133612) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "As an update on $VRSN they released a very strange 8-K on Friday rebuking the Google AdSense bear case that has been circulating post my longer form notes posted to VIC. Given the phrasing of the short sellers faulty and incorrect analysis I can only assume that they were mentioning the VIC post [--] weeks ago. Anyways spending some time this weekend I have little faith that the domains impacted will actually be 2% given previous disclosure by their own CEO alongside other industry sources and find the entire situation strange. See below: $VRSN - was initially looking at as a long now flipped" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982801373985972595) 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "1) JACK shares have lost 80% of value since July [----] falling 50% YTD - many investors remain bearish on near-term SSS performance citing a lack of a catalyst; however there is a clear catalyst driving a significant beat to Q3 FY2025E numbers and beyond" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941631712183697432) 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@HatfieldCapital @ValleyFallsRI Yeah. She's not without fault I'll say that but I think very very far from a disaster. Let's see" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1902502129572741336) 2025-03-19T23:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "2) Brought back wedges and initial checks seem positive - stores are sold out so should be a good tailwind. See this Reddit Post and comments below: https://www.reddit.com/r/jackinthebox/comments/1mawhep/potato_wedges_are_back/ https://www.reddit.com/r/jackinthebox/comments/1mawhep/potato_wedges_are_back/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952361271052951632) 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3) Recent potential activist involvement in Biglari Capital Corp is a positive - known to get buy up minority stakes in underperforming fast-food / fast-casual chains and push for change; Biglari has signaled that they will be purchasing more which likely drives in more merger arb pods etc. which is going to force shorts to cover (short interest at 35% is asinine for a business thats not a fraud)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941631785978507311) 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6) CPRT has increased their share of the total industry from 41.0% to 60.5% over November [----] to today per 3P data primarily due to weakness in IAA (no functioning website etc.). Now that IAA under new ownership has rectified these issues insurance companies WANT to have EQUAL SHARE amongst the [--] largest salvage vehicle providers and are going to the main driving force in share normalizing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423531803783494) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Also good thing to note is that $MH was targeting an initial "$19.00 and $22.00 per share" range. They are now coming in at $17.00 - makes you think about how roadshow demand actually looked since they raised 18% less than the mid-point of the range as of July 18th [----]. Likely had to cut price due to lower demand; thing might pop today / next few days but underlying investors clearly had to be convinced to take this on their books. Good context to have if considering a position. Lower proceeds raised also makes the leverage issue worse since they intended to pay-down debt here with the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948379539991650656) 2025-07-24T13:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3) Think street expectations for SSS are very compressed right now and assuming traffic doesn't give think they can surprise on the upside. Let's see in [--] days" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952361273225593263) 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Is definitely a larger market cap name and has historically been relatively stable; can maybe be used as a hedge in a portfolio. Anyways have been looking at a few long ideas too as to not saturate this feed with a bunch of short ideas haha" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1978455273732739452) 2025-10-15T13:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "1) A recent lawsuit filed by the former Global VP of Human Relations in April [----] titled Christine Arnold vs. Copart Inc. reveals a culture at CPRT of executives showing up to meetings drunk being caught with prostitute at company sponsored events (and forcing HR to accommodate them) and a large male executive almost cornering the plaintiff and screaming at her when she spoke out against this internally" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423513898041345) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@ZissouCapital @ToffCap Oh interesting. Think that's a huge catalyst where US mutual funds will finally be able to buy $AIF.TO. Not a lot of names with the quality the company has in the public markets. Strange how much of the ownership base comes from active investors versus passive investors today" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856084219677814890) 2024-11-11T21:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1) More conviction in the $MH potential short (posted long form write-up on VIC will circulate post 45-day period) as they reported Q1 [----] earnings yesterday. The gave [----] full-year guidance revenue growth of (4%).well below the long-term revenue growth range marketed of +5%. They claim it's due to the one-time cyclicity in the K-12 market and that FY [----] will suffer from a lower fiscal budget for their end-market that should be rectified come FY [----]. I doubt it; see below:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956351458250559909) 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Maku_Capital @ErnestWongBWM Boys-only club extravagant company parties at shooting ranches (99% men) execs spending company $ on prostitutes etc. - take it with a grain of salt but not something you really want to be hearing for a "compounder". (again can all just be disgruntled ex-employees)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963985053249081491) 2025-09-05T15:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2) Beyond this a recent May [----] lawsuit alleges that CPRT sells vehicles that are materially different from what a VIN search would give you and forensic analysis of the car however by selling through 3rd-party brokers CPRT creates a figurative black-box shielding them from potential liability" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423517287243840) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Thanks for the feedback. To your first point no incremental thoughts on the note. Does conflict with online forum posts and threads even over the last few days on NamePros BlackHat World etc. - the domain investors at the conference (those that purely buy domains for value appreciation) likely are willing to take the losses per year (if there are any for them). Not sure if the conference is indicative of total parked domain base either (likely more corporate type of domain investors there versus the average domain speculator that parks their domain) but good data point to have regardless. On" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1988094048343630200) 2025-11-11T03:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Thoughts on $UBER and $DASH investing in that market Recent job postings over the last few months suggest they're going to heavily subsidize to try and steal market share as they grow the segment out internally. From a consumer standpoint too if there's a world where I can bundle food delivery + grocery delivery it's attractive. Not sure the benefits but using Amazon and their Prime value proposition as a potential parallel for consumer value proposition. Or is there a world where all [--] can co-exist" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967263540969951731) 2025-09-14T16:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4) An ex-employee alleges that CPRT consistently engages in shill-bidding and that they even had an entire department of the company dedicated to the practice" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423524585292207) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TidefallCapital It really is crazy. Makes sense though when you consider IR has historically been outsourced" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856452866975694929) 2024-11-12T21:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Investor_NICK_ Haha I appreciate the words a ton - I was really surprised initially since I expected the call to be relatively positive (+ the data for the quarter was strong). The concerns brought up on the call re: AdSense pricing and domain growth seem to behind the drawdown. Let's see" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981745109394661463) 2025-10-24T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Trying to be more consistent with getting some of my ideas out there - as a start just posted this $FIVE 6-8 month long uploaded to VIC on March 13th. Not as actionable now as the thesis has largely played out. Came across another interesting 6-8 month buy last night hoping to write that up today over the holiday/tomorrow morning and get that out. Anyways if interested linked work is here: https://minuscherry.substack.com/p/archive-long-6-8-months-five-below https://minuscherry.substack.com/p/archive-long-6-8-months-five-below" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941149835349926103) 2025-07-04T14:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "P.S. - Don't let yourself be exit liquidity" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1948369416623693851) 2025-07-24T13:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@JimmyDaGreek76 For legal reasons I wont publicly be speaking on the name for the next little bit - sorry but wont comment for now" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1860418248824549531) 2024-11-23T20:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@biberleuer @Santi_Robledo @GrandTokamak @HighyieldHarry @27XVII @Bondifrench Likewise - you'd think they would see what I see but again could be very very wrong. Thank you for the visibility here as I continue to learn" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856360091873665428) 2024-11-12T15:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yeah that makes sense. Do you think that's mostly because those large orders can really only be handled by $CART right now given the difference in the courier/shopper demographic I think that might be one of the bigger perceived risks with the name so if you can get comfort on that it's probably a really good name to hold for the next 2-3 years" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1967271617207111960) 2025-09-14T16:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6) Lastly the nature of the release of the 8-K is really weird. Its like RDDT releasing an 8-K on Reburns note earlier this year on Google changing their algorithm that sent the stock down or CARTs stock going down on news of the Amazon & Kroger partnership. These are not items you typically see 8-Kd and raises more concerns for me. That being said it opens the risk to the short as if the stock does draw down to a certain level whos to say management doesnt try and take steps to reverse the losses; my initial write-up here notes that $VRSN management isnt overtly focused on stock price" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982801393388838926) 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I was doing some work on this before the report and am fairly confident on the bit of subscriber growth being overstated as they began soft forcing consumer sign ups. Internally the company changed the way they went to the market for these subscriptions in a way that was exceptionally misleading. Would say its far more likely to be the case than that thesis being a reach" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1869445266128224592) 2024-12-18T18:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Get your points but you have to consider the implications IF the claims re: sexual harassment company money being spent on prostitutes massive drinking culture in the office / during meetings are all true. Does it matter for EPS Probably not right now (no means is this fraud) but if it is true it speaks to the character of some of the VPs and higher-ups. Will they be entirely truthful especially at a time where IAA is taking share Sure the CEO and CFO are the face of the company but they rely on the alleged perpetrators a lot as well given how lean the company is (in my opinion). Do you also" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963989430437351602) 2025-09-05T15:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@nyseSRCL @SeanSilcoff @globeandmail Do find it fascinating that the debate behind this stock has been "Matt yes" or "Matt no" over the past [--] months" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1867302650905018781) 2024-12-12T20:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5) Interestingly enough the Q3 FY2025 10-Q updated their risk disclosure to include the impact of "government investigation" - not a smoking gun but the coincidence in timing is a little suspicious:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423528137932838) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "7) Note that growth in the K-12 business was 4.1% in FY [----] and negative 7% in FY [----] until ESSER funding drove the 10% - 15% Y/Y growth rates from FY [----] to FY 2025" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956351470896398835) 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yeah fully agree. Was doing some work before on the name before this report but I had concerns around how they disclose delinquency rates in their IR (delinquency = miss 2nd paymentso if the customers miss the 3rd or 4th payments they arent really included). Theres also a Facebook group called Sezzle Up which shows how ridiculous in my opinion this service has gotten. Only BNPL that lets you buy gifftcards use it on Amazon etc. Growth driven from change in GTM for the subscriber business (have gathered some evidence they began the auto sign-up in April which checks out with wording changes in" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1869468496163426363) 2024-12-18T19:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Yep and even .Io and other non-traditionally domains. Long-term a lot of my friends and peers don't view .Com as the "must-have" it sounds like it once was. Think based off the long-term headwinds + the above near-term challenges this is more like a 10x - 15x EBITDA stock at best assuming it continues to pay out FCF in buybacks and dividends. Let's see" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1978510737510117819) 2025-10-15T17:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@MapleTreeCap Nice. Any thoughts on why you think they can grow 3% annually next [--] years and into perpetuity I'm short-biased right now and think they are seeing a lot of pressure on the pricing side in a saturated market with not much growth" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1951390882688803203) 2025-08-01T21:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "As an update on $MH it has been approximately two months since my initial post on VIC so I'm now able to share the contents of that write-up. While not as exciting as shorting at the expected $20 pre-IPO (when I started looking at the name) or $17 at IPO I don't foresee any of the headwinds impacting the stock + business going away anytime soon. See the thread below for more specifics but overall: 1) You have a majority owner (85%) that is incentivized to sell large chunks quickly post-lockup 2) 20% discounting for their K-12 segment (50% of revenues) 3) A recently revived lawsuit from" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1975197065459224923) 2025-10-06T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Love the charts and fully agree. The ICANN monthly .Com data and mix is not being looked into and a large-part of my notes do hinge on that. Something else to consider is how long will these registrars sacrifice their own margin.2 of the largest growing registrars this year are NameCheap and SpaceShip (SpaceShip owned by NameCheap) and CVC just announced last month they'd be buying them out. For a PE sponsor would they trim costs wherever they could Just a lot here" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981354039942996303) 2025-10-23T13:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@rubicon59 Is that because they are "too big" to consider this kind of stuff or do you feel the accusations are based on flimsy analysis" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1879594224884355376) 2025-01-15T18:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "2) Im really curious as to how they made these bucketstypically bucket [--] and [--] are correlated as many speculators hold domains and have advertisements on at the same time so it is actually really tough to break it down. I get the initial push-back is that Oh of course its hard for you to but $VRSN can actually look at the data and thats what I thought at first but even the current CEO thinks so See below for his response to an analyst asking about parked domains and why the removed disclosure on the Q2 FY2014A earnings call:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982801379304349821) 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "IAA seems to be growing despite these cyclical headwinds which I guess is the biggest cause for concern for me. I do understand there is nuance in the contracts but 3P data has a material variance which I guess you can explain to the progressive contract but this explanation to me at least raises some more questions than answers. What are your thoughts on the IAA share-gain thesis" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965395384601071857) 2025-09-09T12:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "5) [--] of the largest domain parking websites SEDO and BODIS automatically opt users into advertisements and both heavily rely on google see here for SEDO and here for BODIS. BODIS is owned by Team Internet Group (whos stock has been crushed this year) and a PE firm called off their offer to take them private because of these Google Changes GoDaddy the largest domain registrar (and has 80m domains parked) and while they dont explicitly state they use Googles name servers when the Oscars sued them in [----] it came out that they rely on Google to show advertisements on parked domains. Building on" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982801388464668999) 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@LionheartInves1 What do you see as the catalyst in the net-nets you've invested in I only ask since [--] years seems pretty near-term to an extent; or is it all over the place" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1846646193818046936) 2024-10-16T20:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ResearchHL @Sophoninvest Fair rebuttal. I'm mostly concerned about recent metrics and if they were inflated pre-IPO. As you mentioned though there is no true alternative that I see as of yet to Reddit so that itself may be bullish" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1902165021913727341) 2025-03-19T01:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Jaro_rogue They started this in April per my checks for all new customer sign-ups" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1869451249806139807) 2024-12-18T18:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "& that's fair. From what I see at least people don't just buy [--] serving of these tacos; sometimes buying 2-3 given the smaller size / can justify it given the lower prices. So on any given order even if the customer orders [--] servings that won't move the attach rate-up that much and seeing how much of a focus this is on social media communities I'd wager it should at least drive a material impact to SSS. I think the odds that they come in at-least low negative single-digits are pretty strong and that can maybe be enough to start regaining some of the valuation premium that's been lost. Let's" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1944750398314614983) 2025-07-14T13:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1) New location openings doing pretty well so far - lines are stretching out and dining capacity is full. Interesting to note; closing underperforming stores and new stores opening should benefit from the initial surge" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1952361268406301170) 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "(5/5) Serious ethical concerns around Proud and the board. Chair of the Audit committee owns 1% of total S/O with precedence of Proud gaming disclosure to buyers and investors" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856106646826529226) 2024-11-11T22:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$CGX (TSE:CGX) - Cineplex is a Canadian film-exhibition business (think movie theatres). They trade on a consensus TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA multiple of 6.0x however a movie-by-movie build gives a TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA of 5.0x. This is the thesis: Shares of Cineplex (TSE:CGX) have fallen over 50% since the WHO declared COVID-19 as a global pandemic which saw the company cut its dividend and enter a period where substantial year-over-year losses were incurred. Before the dividend cut CGX was trading as a REIT (as seen with their IPO branding of Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund) and the cut itself" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1846634046639820937) 2024-10-16T19:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "8) Again have a lot more thoughts here but out of respect for VIC requirements and rules I will share more information that I put into that write-up when I can which is mid-September" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1956351472737644967) 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@o_li_vi_err How do you feel about the revenue CAGR's falling FOR DoProcess & Ghost Practise See below for the first-time disclosure in Q4'FY24A & the presentation today $DND.TO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856361566087627169) 2024-11-12T15:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ResearRagnarok If I'm underrated you guys are slept on entirely - craziest hit-rate % on ideas I've seen here haha" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1954903869336461349) 2025-08-11T13:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@dcurras1 Definitely - will caveat that for the controversies at least this is more of a research + investigative piece versus information that would directly impact EPS and FCF (maybe indirectly.) but still things investors should know about when underwriting the thesis" [X Link](https://x.com/MinusCherry/status/1965767586542768345) 2025-09-10T13:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@invest091 Thank you Likewise really appreciate it" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965777199392563348) 2025-09-10T13:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Yeah I agree. Explore more in my longer form write up but I mean in theory just so many things you could consider. Pricing negotiations likely favour the end consumer but with $VRSN whats interesting is any structural reduction in price effectively creates revenue declines given the recurring nature of their revenues. Domains renewing at $10.26 today wont renew at that pricethats more secular though which I will admit there isnt that much visibility on at the moment" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1981182687185433016) 2025-10-23T02:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Read this somewhere on here but as dangerous as it sounds to say this not too sure if it's entirely on her. Paper Source went bankrupt during COVID and 80% of their business was brick-and-mortar. Forever [--] was coming out with restructuring. At least for the earnings call I thought she did a good job at resetting expectations and maintaining that beat-and-raise cadence they set late last year. Up 9% AH so let's see how the stock opens tomorrow" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1902471065542033534) 2025-03-19T21:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4) Anyways Ive already sourced industry papers and reports that do a robust analysis on actual parked domains and total % of the base but looking at Whois XML API's Q3 [----] Global Domain Activity Report further supports the case these parked domains do make up more than 2% of $VRSN's number. To be conservative I only take confirmed domain parking companies in and They make up 13% of all DNS activity and this excludes parked domains on sites like GoDaddy. http://parklogic.com http://parkingcrew.net http://afternic.com http://namefind.com http://parklogic.com http://parkingcrew.net" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1982801384568176938) 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "How accurate do you feel credit card data may be for $FIVE Know the name has traded off CC data for the past few quarters but have surprised analysts on both the buy-side and sell-side; think $FIVE might actually be materially cash and debit based given the demographic. Not that I disagree with your view I'm personally really bullish on Q1'2025 as they lap in my opinion a cyclical issue with Squishmallows but just curious on the CC build to get to your Y/Y growth figure" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1878842803624538636) 2025-01-13T16:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "No position but am leaning towards a short-bias more so after the call yesterday largely due to the RBA & IAA thesis (see you speak about this nice) and just some governance concerns. Might type up some of my thoughts this weekend since I'm surprised some of this stuff isn't more documented on the governance side at-least" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1963983915330244834) 2025-09-05T15:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@atelicinvest I think the downside here may come from your time horizon. If it takes a business 4-5 years to realize a 50% discount your IRR isn't as attractive versus that on a 2-3 year time horizon and it becomes more attractive to just buy the S&P" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856113402495615387) 2024-11-11T23:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3) Additionally countless records of CPRT seemingly tampering with cars to hide damage selling cars factually worse than listed online and sometimes with fake titles / wrong titles in the cars (beyond just CPRT selling a bad used car - this is material differences in advertising)" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965423521191878891) 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "For sure especially in a time like this. I think I recall the Reddit post that's what actually motivated me to look into it further really quick. Thanks for the words and let's see how this plays out Like your earnings review on $CPRT as well gives much better grasp on fundamentals + bull-case" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1965770788255957418) 2025-09-10T13:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Sorry Below is a short description of the opportunity: $CGX (TSE:CGX) - Cineplex is a Canadian film-exhibition business (think movie theatres). ___ They trade on a consensus TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA multiple of 6.0x however a movie-by-movie build gives a TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA of 5.0x. This is the thesis: shares of Cineplex (TSE:CGX) have fallen over 50% since the WHO declared COVID-19 as a global pandemic which saw the company cut its dividend and enter a period where substantial year-over-year losses were incurred. Before the dividend cut CGX was trading as a REIT (as seen with their IPO" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1846635066908463134) 2024-10-16T19:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@atelicinvest Fair. I guess the only names I've come across like these are low single-digit growers with low float so I guess bias on my end" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856113857900548571) 2024-11-11T23:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@plasticnewt3 How do you feel about competition Have done a lot of research on DND and am a short personally given Proud and the deterioration of how many customers use the product. Thoughts on peers like Closer & LDD" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1856070056435683603) 2024-11-11T20:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@MinusCherry Minus Cherry
Minus Cherry posts on X about $mh, in the, business, company the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [--] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [--] #
- [--] Week [---] -11%
- [--] Month [-----] +126%
- [--] Months [------] +417%
- [--] Year [------] +1,066%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [--] -36%
- [--] Months [--] +147%
- [--] Year [--] +300%
Followers: [---] #
- [--] Week [---] +0.50%
- [--] Month [---] +15%
- [--] Months [---] +180%
- [--] Year [---] +360%
CreatorRank: undefined #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks finance technology brands countries currencies social networks
Social topic influence $mh #39, in the, business, company, market, share, growth, i see, note, $vrsn #4
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @plasticnewt3 @peakcorruption @atelicinvest @ernestwongbwm @biberleuer @santirobledo @grandtokamak @highyieldharry @27xvii @bondifrench @rubicon59 @stockgeektv @hvntting @larryjamieson @lionheartinves1 @zissoucapital @toffcap @olivierr @tidefallcapital @jimmydagreek76
Top assets mentioned McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH) Verisign, Inc. (VRSN) Copart, Inc. (CPRT) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Stride, Inc. (LRN) Five Below, Inc. (FIVE)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Would a dividend reinstatement qualify If so I think Cineplex (TSE:CGX) is an interesting play; they had to cut their dividend due to the pandemic (previously operated as a REIT). The cut forced 1/5th of all shareholders to sell. Given US mutual funds are unable to purchase Canadian equities and the reserved nature of Canadian mutual funds CGX has yet to see the +200% run-up that their closest peer Cinemark (NYSE: CNK) experienced (comparatively CGX has treaded flat). I built a model on a movie-by-movie basis and see them re-instating the dividend in H2'FY25E (management signaled they'll"
X Link 2024-10-16T20:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Dye & Durham $DND.TO Failing Product Revenue Recognition Irregularities & CEO With Serious Ethical Concerns Flagship product monthly traffic down 60% near-term catalysts to see material churn in real estate law segment with existential risk to business law segment with overstated revenues by 30% https://substack.com/home/post/p-151482897 https://substack.com/home/post/p-151482897"
X Link 2024-11-11T22:48Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"(4/5) Their business law segment currently owns 2/3 of licenses to allow for online search in Ontario; that renewal comes up in FY26E and a former marketing manager has stated that the process will be opened to more peers"
X Link 2024-11-11T22:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"That could be an explanation - think I have an inherent bias as speaking to people who've been involved with acquiring DND (all the way back to [----] when he owned OneMove) there have been concerns around Proud's value of the books not aligning to the market. I think my question to you then is why not let the market ride out this cycle upswing so his options have a higher chance of exercising"
X Link 2024-11-12T14:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Were those transactions the private placements If so those may also be with Plantro. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Cannacord leading this deal. They've underwritten quite a few deals that have been 0'd in the past couple of years. Thing is you'd think so right But BMO provided financing to Nuvei CIBC provided financing to Lightspeed and both were exposed by Spruce Point. I'm not saying that I'm right and the banks are wrong but there's enough precedence to make me very wary here"
X Link 2024-11-12T15:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@aseoane123 @biberleuer @Santi_Robledo @GrandTokamak @HighyieldHarry @27XVII @Bondifrench I'm seeing transactions expanded from 35k to 40k since [----] per the graph So in the back half of [----] pretty big up-tick - makes sense to me"
X Link 2024-11-14T18:15Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@guastywinds I think the report was focusing on much of that growth could be fabricated and the legitimate is driven by underwriting for subprime consumers not served by any other player specifically changing their underwriting algorithm this year to allow for lower credit consumers"
X Link 2024-12-18T19:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@rubicon59 How do you feel about $SEZL given their public peers have reported higher than expected losses especially given $SEZL apparently targets lower credit consumers + consumer being squeezed generally (see McDonalds + other QSR SSS struggling)"
X Link 2025-05-26T22:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@stockgeekTV Haha can see that. Personally his involvement gives me cautious optimism for the stock at least. Also on the Taco bit take a look at this Reddit thread posted [--] days ago - safe to say no one ever really just orders [--] serving https://www.reddit.com/r/jackinthebox/comments/1lyjske/would_employees_get_mad_at_someone_ordering_8/ https://www.reddit.com/r/jackinthebox/comments/1lyjske/would_employees_get_mad_at_someone_ordering_8/"
X Link 2025-07-15T03:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Great read. Do you see the returns coming in the form of just buybacks or do you think dividends could also be on the cards My train of thought is that they are essentially steady-state 15% - 20% FCF yield.if they initiate a dividend program alongside the buy-back case to be made they might trade above $DBD as you have equity income funds add this to their portfolio and this becomes even more attractive. Just curious but overall really great read and thanks for putting this out here"
X Link 2025-07-31T13:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"1) More conviction in the $MH potential short (posted long form write-up on VIC will circulate post 45-day period) as they reported Q1 [----] earnings yesterday. The gave [----] full-year guidance revenue growth of (4%).well below the long-term revenue growth range marketed of +5%. They claim it's due to the one-time cyclicity in the K-12 market and that FY [----] will suffer from a lower fiscal budget for their end-market that should be rectified come FY [----]. I doubt it; see below:"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"As an update on $MH it has been approximately two months since my initial post on VIC so I'm now able to share the contents of that write-up. While not as exciting as shorting at the expected $20 pre-IPO (when I started looking at the name) or $17 at IPO I don't foresee any of the headwinds impacting the stock + business going away anytime soon. See the thread below for more specifics but overall: 1) You have a majority owner (85%) that is incentivized to sell large chunks quickly post-lockup 2) 20% discounting for their K-12 segment (50% of revenues) 3) A recently revived lawsuit from"
X Link 2025-10-06T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"As an update on $VRSN they released a very strange 8-K on Friday rebuking the Google AdSense bear case that has been circulating post my longer form notes posted to VIC. Given the phrasing of the short sellers faulty and incorrect analysis I can only assume that they were mentioning the VIC post [--] weeks ago. Anyways spending some time this weekend I have little faith that the domains impacted will actually be 2% given previous disclosure by their own CEO alongside other industry sources and find the entire situation strange. See below: $VRSN - was initially looking at as a long now flipped"
X Link 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$LRN down -30% as bear case of COVID funding washing out is playing out - not 1-to-1 but something to consider for $MH as they've also been a benefactor of ESSER funding over the last [--] years; gives a flavor for what could happen While it isn't as exciting as when it was supposed to IPO at $20 or when it IPO'd at $17 I still believe $MH could be a good funding short given the above mentioned tailwinds aren't necessarily going away anytime soon. If this spikes back to $14 - $17 could be good to short While it isn't as exciting as when it was supposed to IPO at $20 or when it IPO'd at $17 I"
X Link 2025-10-28T20:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Something interesting to note re: $VRSN is recent developments at SEDO Team Internet Group and parked domains. SEDO owned by IONOS saw revenue fall by 66% in Q3 after its shift to Google RSOC was lackluster. Google's also clamping down harder on RSOC - they've struggled to the point where IONOS is looking to sell SEDO. Additionally Team Internet Group is now also looking to sell its domain business. If this were temporary/cyclical I feel the companies would hold on to these assets; however they've likely recognized the terminal value is structurally impaired here. AdSense for domains is also"
X Link 2025-11-18T02:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"On $MH spiked 40% over the last week post the Q2 print. I believe it was due to a combination of tight float and high SI into the print (also fears after $LRN reported that public education stocks would also see some weakness). Important to note as well that this was the last earnings call before Platinum Equity's lock-ups expire. Beat comes from 14% growth in higher education versus -1% - 0% expectations largely coming from increased penetration in existing users vs. signing on new institutions was my read. Management also credited some of this growth to the adoption of AI products (which"
X Link 2025-11-18T02:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$CGX (TSE:CGX) - Cineplex is a Canadian film-exhibition business (think movie theatres). They trade on a consensus TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA multiple of 6.0x however a movie-by-movie build gives a TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA of 5.0x. This is the thesis: Shares of Cineplex (TSE:CGX) have fallen over 50% since the WHO declared COVID-19 as a global pandemic which saw the company cut its dividend and enter a period where substantial year-over-year losses were incurred. Before the dividend cut CGX was trading as a REIT (as seen with their IPO branding of Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund) and the cut itself"
X Link 2024-10-16T19:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Sorry Below is a short description of the opportunity: $CGX (TSE:CGX) - Cineplex is a Canadian film-exhibition business (think movie theatres). ___ They trade on a consensus TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA multiple of 6.0x however a movie-by-movie build gives a TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA of 5.0x. This is the thesis: shares of Cineplex (TSE:CGX) have fallen over 50% since the WHO declared COVID-19 as a global pandemic which saw the company cut its dividend and enter a period where substantial year-over-year losses were incurred. Before the dividend cut CGX was trading as a REIT (as seen with their IPO"
X Link 2024-10-16T19:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@LionheartInves1 What do you see as the catalyst in the net-nets you've invested in I only ask since [--] years seems pretty near-term to an extent; or is it all over the place"
X Link 2024-10-16T20:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@plasticnewt3 How do you feel about competition Have done a lot of research on DND and am a short personally given Proud and the deterioration of how many customers use the product. Thoughts on peers like Closer & LDD"
X Link 2024-11-11T20:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ZissouCapital @ToffCap Oh interesting. Think that's a huge catalyst where US mutual funds will finally be able to buy $AIF.TO. Not a lot of names with the quality the company has in the public markets. Strange how much of the ownership base comes from active investors versus passive investors today"
X Link 2024-11-11T21:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fair. I was looking into this and think a huge thing is most peers are private. Could be wrong but in my diligence peers like Closer are seeing 1-2 new clients a day from DND. One thing in DND's favor as you mentioned is the Telus Assyst capability which none can really replicate. I think something interesting too is in Canada bulk of the market is actually the lower volume real estate law firms so 30%-40% are from the higher volume firms with the remainder being smaller independents. So the smaller independents that were locked in Feb [----] are looking to switch off entirely in Feb 2025."
X Link 2024-11-11T22:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"(5/5) Serious ethical concerns around Proud and the board. Chair of the Audit committee owns 1% of total S/O with precedence of Proud gaming disclosure to buyers and investors"
X Link 2024-11-11T22:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@atelicinvest I think the downside here may come from your time horizon. If it takes a business 4-5 years to realize a 50% discount your IRR isn't as attractive versus that on a 2-3 year time horizon and it becomes more attractive to just buy the S&P"
X Link 2024-11-11T23:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@atelicinvest Fair. I guess the only names I've come across like these are low single-digit growers with low float so I guess bias on my end"
X Link 2024-11-11T23:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@biberleuer @Santi_Robledo @GrandTokamak @HighyieldHarry @27XVII @Bondifrench Likewise - you'd think they would see what I see but again could be very very wrong. Thank you for the visibility here as I continue to learn"
X Link 2024-11-12T15:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@o_li_vi_err How do you feel about the revenue CAGR's falling FOR DoProcess & Ghost Practise See below for the first-time disclosure in Q4'FY24A & the presentation today $DND.TO"
X Link 2024-11-12T15:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TidefallCapital It really is crazy. Makes sense though when you consider IR has historically been outsourced"
X Link 2024-11-12T21:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JimmyDaGreek76 For legal reasons I wont publicly be speaking on the name for the next little bit - sorry but wont comment for now"
X Link 2024-11-23T20:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@nyseSRCL @SeanSilcoff @globeandmail Do find it fascinating that the debate behind this stock has been "Matt yes" or "Matt no" over the past [--] months"
X Link 2024-12-12T20:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I was doing some work on this before the report and am fairly confident on the bit of subscriber growth being overstated as they began soft forcing consumer sign ups. Internally the company changed the way they went to the market for these subscriptions in a way that was exceptionally misleading. Would say its far more likely to be the case than that thesis being a reach"
X Link 2024-12-18T18:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Jaro_rogue They started this in April per my checks for all new customer sign-ups"
X Link 2024-12-18T18:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yeah fully agree. Was doing some work before on the name before this report but I had concerns around how they disclose delinquency rates in their IR (delinquency = miss 2nd paymentso if the customers miss the 3rd or 4th payments they arent really included). Theres also a Facebook group called Sezzle Up which shows how ridiculous in my opinion this service has gotten. Only BNPL that lets you buy gifftcards use it on Amazon etc. Growth driven from change in GTM for the subscriber business (have gathered some evidence they began the auto sign-up in April which checks out with wording changes in"
X Link 2024-12-18T19:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"How accurate do you feel credit card data may be for $FIVE Know the name has traded off CC data for the past few quarters but have surprised analysts on both the buy-side and sell-side; think $FIVE might actually be materially cash and debit based given the demographic. Not that I disagree with your view I'm personally really bullish on Q1'2025 as they lap in my opinion a cyclical issue with Squishmallows but just curious on the CC build to get to your Y/Y growth figure"
X Link 2025-01-13T16:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@rubicon59 Is that because they are "too big" to consider this kind of stuff or do you feel the accusations are based on flimsy analysis"
X Link 2025-01-15T18:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ResearchHL @Sophoninvest Fair rebuttal. I'm mostly concerned about recent metrics and if they were inflated pre-IPO. As you mentioned though there is no true alternative that I see as of yet to Reddit so that itself may be bullish"
X Link 2025-03-19T01:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Read this somewhere on here but as dangerous as it sounds to say this not too sure if it's entirely on her. Paper Source went bankrupt during COVID and 80% of their business was brick-and-mortar. Forever [--] was coming out with restructuring. At least for the earnings call I thought she did a good job at resetting expectations and maintaining that beat-and-raise cadence they set late last year. Up 9% AH so let's see how the stock opens tomorrow"
X Link 2025-03-19T21:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@HatfieldCapital @ValleyFallsRI Yeah. She's not without fault I'll say that but I think very very far from a disaster. Let's see"
X Link 2025-03-19T23:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Trying to be more consistent with getting some of my ideas out there - as a start just posted this $FIVE 6-8 month long uploaded to VIC on March 13th. Not as actionable now as the thesis has largely played out. Came across another interesting 6-8 month buy last night hoping to write that up today over the holiday/tomorrow morning and get that out. Anyways if interested linked work is here: https://minuscherry.substack.com/p/archive-long-6-8-months-five-below https://minuscherry.substack.com/p/archive-long-6-8-months-five-below"
X Link 2025-07-04T14:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Quick piece on $JACK and why I see this returning 20% - 50% by the end of [----]. Has been written up a ton before on the turnaround initatives but I noticed the elephant in the room remained to be SSS performance/catalyst on SSS recovering. Have put together some of my thoughts on why I see a 500bps beat in Q3 FY2025E. Anyways it can be found here https://open.substack.com/pub/minuscherry/p/long-6-8-months-jack-in-the-box-incr=p4qa4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2025-07-05T22:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"1) JACK shares have lost 80% of value since July [----] falling 50% YTD - many investors remain bearish on near-term SSS performance citing a lack of a catalyst; however there is a clear catalyst driving a significant beat to Q3 FY2025E numbers and beyond"
X Link 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2) JACK recently raised the prices of their Tacos from $0.99 for [--] to $1.29 - $1.99 (differing sources) from April [----] to June [----] - a Franchisee discloses Tacos made up 30% of sales and on this math I get a 500bps beat to SSS in Q3 FY2025E"
X Link 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3) Recent potential activist involvement in Biglari Capital Corp is a positive - known to get buy up minority stakes in underperforming fast-food / fast-casual chains and push for change; Biglari has signaled that they will be purchasing more which likely drives in more merger arb pods etc. which is going to force shorts to cover (short interest at 35% is asinine for a business thats not a fraud)"
X Link 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4) See parallels to Cracker Barrel (CRBL) stock that has returned 67% this year from April [----] as turnaround initiatives are priced in - overall I see JACK as a stock that returns 20% - 50% through to year-end so a great way to get some of that alpha in H2 2025"
X Link 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"& that's fair. From what I see at least people don't just buy [--] serving of these tacos; sometimes buying 2-3 given the smaller size / can justify it given the lower prices. So on any given order even if the customer orders [--] servings that won't move the attach rate-up that much and seeing how much of a focus this is on social media communities I'd wager it should at least drive a material impact to SSS. I think the odds that they come in at-least low negative single-digits are pretty strong and that can maybe be enough to start regaining some of the valuation premium that's been lost. Let's"
X Link 2025-07-14T13:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Short-Bias $MH before they IPO today - TLDR; PE-backed IPOs perform bad $MH will be no stranger as high-leverage metrics screen well for quant shorts as market makers do what they do will see reverse-gamma which is multiplied by the fact this thing has 15% float. Additionally they're losing pricing quick tailwinds of school budgets being inflated post COVID are over / phasing out and publicly available contract and renewal documents indicate 15% discounting in just the last few months on renewals. See 35% - 60% downside. Last big point is that they've been underpaying author royalties for the"
X Link 2025-07-24T13:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"P.S. - Don't let yourself be exit liquidity"
X Link 2025-07-24T13:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Also good thing to note is that $MH was targeting an initial "$19.00 and $22.00 per share" range. They are now coming in at $17.00 - makes you think about how roadshow demand actually looked since they raised 18% less than the mid-point of the range as of July 18th [----]. Likely had to cut price due to lower demand; thing might pop today / next few days but underlying investors clearly had to be convinced to take this on their books. Good context to have if considering a position. Lower proceeds raised also makes the leverage issue worse since they intended to pay-down debt here with the"
X Link 2025-07-24T13:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MapleTreeCap Nice. Any thoughts on why you think they can grow 3% annually next [--] years and into perpetuity I'm short-biased right now and think they are seeing a lot of pressure on the pricing side in a saturated market with not much growth"
X Link 2025-08-01T21:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Quick re-visit $JACK pre-Q3 earnings this week. Still cautiously optimistic albeit stock has swung up 20% and down 20% since the initial post here. Hoping the Taco price increases and excl. Taco price increases can cushion SSS and management gives somewhat bullish commentary through to year-end. Think if this works out the upwards revision cycle into the new FY will be a huge catalyst. That being said few additional things to note"
X Link 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1) New location openings doing pretty well so far - lines are stretching out and dining capacity is full. Interesting to note; closing underperforming stores and new stores opening should benefit from the initial surge"
X Link 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"2) Brought back wedges and initial checks seem positive - stores are sold out so should be a good tailwind. See this Reddit Post and comments below: https://www.reddit.com/r/jackinthebox/comments/1mawhep/potato_wedges_are_back/ https://www.reddit.com/r/jackinthebox/comments/1mawhep/potato_wedges_are_back/"
X Link 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3) Think street expectations for SSS are very compressed right now and assuming traffic doesn't give think they can surprise on the upside. Let's see in [--] days"
X Link 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Update on $JACK after the pretty disappointing print last week; SSS were down (6.4%) largely driven by lower transactions. Price increases only came in at 0.2%. Few places I was wrong: 1) Timing think a lot of these locations still had the promotions on these tacos / increases still flowing through - likely see this play out more in Q4 2) Attach-rate =/ % of AUV - @stockgeekTV pointed this out to me and was able to come to the conclusion that tacos are likely closer to 10% - 15% of total AUV. 30% price-increase on that with the timing lag made it tough to see material impact in this quarter"
X Link 2025-08-11T13:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"That being said stock is down 8.6% from the initial pitch-price of $20.19 and since black-out is over I see Biglari continuing to buy. With shares short 34% of float (per Yahoo finance) still a strong technical catalyst assuming they are still interesting in upping their stake. A 9% drawdown on what I thought was a pretty bad miss isn't.so bad I'm willing to see how this shakes out into Q4 and hopefully a positive FY [----] guidance range on that call. If things do not improve by then / favorable guidance is not provided then it no longer becomes that attractive of a R/R unless there are new"
X Link 2025-08-11T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ResearRagnarok If I'm underrated you guys are slept on entirely - craziest hit-rate % on ideas I've seen here haha"
X Link 2025-08-11T13:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"3) This is despite enrollments being down from [----] - $MH using NCES data stated that enrollments were at 56m for the year. Using the same source for [----] (likely real-time) the number was at 49.5m a 17% decline. Yet $MH grew the K-12 business by 177%"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4) To compare the Higher Education segment (Universities Colleges etc.) just saw growth of 19% over the same period; how did the K-12 segment growth this quickly Full write-up to be released on Substack mid-September covers this more (currently only on VIC) but purely driven by ESSER funding that expires next year"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5) Important to note K-12 business was 37% of business in FY [----] and is now effectively 50% today. Given the materially higher mix and nominal growth rate $MH is extremely exposed to the multi-year trend of school board budgets being deflated back to the mean (less so cutting more so phasing out of temporary stimulus into the market)"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6) This isn't' just a FY [----] problem for $MH as is being portrayed but is a problem for the years ahead. Funny to also note how in the FY [----] report for the K-12 business their TAM was $6.6b but as of today they market their TAM as $9.3b despite enrollments down 17%. Likely per customer revenues were up given inflated school board budgets but that's all reversing here"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"7) Note that growth in the K-12 business was 4.1% in FY [----] and negative 7% in FY [----] until ESSER funding drove the 10% - 15% Y/Y growth rates from FY [----] to FY 2025"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"8) Again have a lot more thoughts here but out of respect for VIC requirements and rules I will share more information that I put into that write-up when I can which is mid-September"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$MH stock up 10% as Goldman sees 92% upside over the next 12-months. I wonder who the lead under-writer here was. $MH Goldman initiates McGraw Hill as buy Goldman says its bullish on shares of the education solutions company. We initiate coverage of McGraw Hill (MH) with a Buy rating and $27 12-month price target. $MH Goldman initiates McGraw Hill as buy Goldman says its bullish on shares of the education solutions company. We initiate coverage of McGraw Hill (MH) with a Buy rating and $27 12-month price target"
X Link 2025-08-18T15:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$MH Add it to the list not surprised to see this. - "The complaint cites at least [----] instances of overcharges. In Osceola County one overcharge exceeded $279000. Another example cited by the state involved a textbook title sold to Miami-Dade County at a discount but offered to nine other districts at higher prices resulting in more than $250000 in additional costs." 🚨 BREAKING: Gov. Ron DeSantis announces legal action against [--] major textbook publishers "that have been exploiting our school districts at the expense of our taxpayers and at the expense of our students." "The state of Florida"
X Link 2025-08-20T16:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ErnestWongBWM Any thoughts on $CPRT upper management I suspect it's a case where they are riding on the coat-tails of the prior generation / am not too impressed by what's been alleged"
X Link 2025-09-05T15:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"No position but am leaning towards a short-bias more so after the call yesterday largely due to the RBA & IAA thesis (see you speak about this nice) and just some governance concerns. Might type up some of my thoughts this weekend since I'm surprised some of this stuff isn't more documented on the governance side at-least"
X Link 2025-09-05T15:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Maku_Capital @ErnestWongBWM Boys-only club extravagant company parties at shooting ranches (99% men) execs spending company $ on prostitutes etc. - take it with a grain of salt but not something you really want to be hearing for a "compounder". (again can all just be disgruntled ex-employees)"
X Link 2025-09-05T15:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Get your points but you have to consider the implications IF the claims re: sexual harassment company money being spent on prostitutes massive drinking culture in the office / during meetings are all true. Does it matter for EPS Probably not right now (no means is this fraud) but if it is true it speaks to the character of some of the VPs and higher-ups. Will they be entirely truthful especially at a time where IAA is taking share Sure the CEO and CFO are the face of the company but they rely on the alleged perpetrators a lot as well given how lean the company is (in my opinion). Do you also"
X Link 2025-09-05T15:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"IAA seems to be growing despite these cyclical headwinds which I guess is the biggest cause for concern for me. I do understand there is nuance in the contracts but 3P data has a material variance which I guess you can explain to the progressive contract but this explanation to me at least raises some more questions than answers. What are your thoughts on the IAA share-gain thesis"
X Link 2025-09-09T12:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Quick note on recent controversy and potential red-flags @ $CPRT which is down 14% YTD so far and is down 24% from its peak share-price of $63.84. A recent lawsuit from the former VP of HR (worked at $CPRT for [--] years) reveals a culture of "debauchery"; this comes at a time when $CPRT is in the most competitive environment they've been in over the last 4-5 years against an insurgent IAA and when company executives are said to show up to meetings drunk.it's not a good sign. See here & below: https://minuscherry.substack.com/p/short-note-controversy-copart-inc"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, 12.1K engagements
"1) A recent lawsuit filed by the former Global VP of Human Relations in April [----] titled Christine Arnold vs. Copart Inc. reveals a culture at CPRT of executives showing up to meetings drunk being caught with prostitute at company sponsored events (and forcing HR to accommodate them) and a large male executive almost cornering the plaintiff and screaming at her when she spoke out against this internally"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"2) Beyond this a recent May [----] lawsuit alleges that CPRT sells vehicles that are materially different from what a VIN search would give you and forensic analysis of the car however by selling through 3rd-party brokers CPRT creates a figurative black-box shielding them from potential liability"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3) Additionally countless records of CPRT seemingly tampering with cars to hide damage selling cars factually worse than listed online and sometimes with fake titles / wrong titles in the cars (beyond just CPRT selling a bad used car - this is material differences in advertising)"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4) An ex-employee alleges that CPRT consistently engages in shill-bidding and that they even had an entire department of the company dedicated to the practice"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5) Interestingly enough the Q3 FY2025 10-Q updated their risk disclosure to include the impact of "government investigation" - not a smoking gun but the coincidence in timing is a little suspicious:"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6) CPRT has increased their share of the total industry from 41.0% to 60.5% over November [----] to today per 3P data primarily due to weakness in IAA (no functioning website etc.). Now that IAA under new ownership has rectified these issues insurance companies WANT to have EQUAL SHARE amongst the [--] largest salvage vehicle providers and are going to the main driving force in share normalizing"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"7) Market expectations price in 60.5% share at a 9.0x TEV / FY+1 Sales however assuming CPRT share compresses to 50% by 2030E the multiple should re-rate down to 7.0x which gives 20% downside; by then the market should begin to accept the IAA share re-gain thesis leading to underwriting 41% terminal share at a 5.0x multiple giving us 46% downside:"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"8) Note I am neither long nor short but this is purely just a research piece; I am not going to financially benefit in any way. I just think these are interesting developments"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@dcurras1 Definitely - will caveat that for the controversies at least this is more of a research + investigative piece versus information that would directly impact EPS and FCF (maybe indirectly.) but still things investors should know about when underwriting the thesis"
X Link 2025-09-10T13:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"For sure especially in a time like this. I think I recall the Reddit post that's what actually motivated me to look into it further really quick. Thanks for the words and let's see how this plays out Like your earnings review on $CPRT as well gives much better grasp on fundamentals + bull-case"
X Link 2025-09-10T13:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@invest091 Thank you Likewise really appreciate it"
X Link 2025-09-10T13:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Thoughts on $UBER and $DASH investing in that market Recent job postings over the last few months suggest they're going to heavily subsidize to try and steal market share as they grow the segment out internally. From a consumer standpoint too if there's a world where I can bundle food delivery + grocery delivery it's attractive. Not sure the benefits but using Amazon and their Prime value proposition as a potential parallel for consumer value proposition. Or is there a world where all [--] can co-exist"
X Link 2025-09-14T16:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yeah that makes sense. Do you think that's mostly because those large orders can really only be handled by $CART right now given the difference in the courier/shopper demographic I think that might be one of the bigger perceived risks with the name so if you can get comfort on that it's probably a really good name to hold for the next 2-3 years"
X Link 2025-09-14T16:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1) Platinum Equity owns 85% of the common stock and pension fund documents from The Santa Barbara County Employees Retirement System show they are currently in the market raising their next PE fund. Given $MH has done well for them on a MOIC (likely 2x) and given LPs focus on DPI and $MH being one of their better investments it's likely they sell post-lock up in January [----]. For context the [----] fundraising process was rolled out in late [----] so also likely that this rolls out late [----] to time with the selling of the stake in January [----] (timing works out really well for Platinum)"
X Link 2025-10-06T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"8) So when does management have to revise guidance down / we see this start to play out Well recently management has been using the new administration's stance on education as the reason why the K-12 segment has seen struggling growth and that once this year laps all should be back to normal. My issue with that is that I argue this downtrend is more structural than cyclical. What was cyclical was the growth in the segment now you're going to see lower government spending from both parties + lower municipal budgets for elementary and secondary school education. I believe that once management"
X Link 2025-10-06T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"While it isn't as exciting as when it was supposed to IPO at $20 or when it IPO'd at $17 I still believe $MH could be a good funding short given the above mentioned tailwinds aren't necessarily going away anytime soon. If this spikes back to $14 - $17 could be good to short into that spike"
X Link 2025-10-06T13:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Is definitely a larger market cap name and has historically been relatively stable; can maybe be used as a hedge in a portfolio. Anyways have been looking at a few long ideas too as to not saturate this feed with a bunch of short ideas haha"
X Link 2025-10-15T13:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Yep and even .Io and other non-traditionally domains. Long-term a lot of my friends and peers don't view .Com as the "must-have" it sounds like it once was. Think based off the long-term headwinds + the above near-term challenges this is more like a 10x - 15x EBITDA stock at best assuming it continues to pay out FCF in buybacks and dividends. Let's see"
X Link 2025-10-15T17:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Hey Mostly from Tegus interviews; an example is attached here. There's similar commentary for $CPRT IAA and insurance companies with the tag "salvage". That being said while insurance companies would LIKE to have [--] equal providers there is a case that working with $CPRT could be materially more accretive than IAA to maintain that share. Where that tension shakes out is crucial to terminal valuation I think"
X Link 2025-10-18T16:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This account is a close friend who just made his first post on X Id follow and keep an eye out for ideas hell be putting out. More longs and special situations $AIRO (AIRO Group Holdings Inc.) is an interesting potential short to watch over the next few months. Have a more in-depth write-up that I'm working on and willing to share to anyone interested. To summarize: AIRO is a roll-up of small aerospace businesses with little $AIRO (AIRO Group Holdings Inc.) is an interesting potential short to watch over the next few months. Have a more in-depth write-up that I'm working on and willing to"
X Link 2025-10-22T03:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Yeah I agree. Explore more in my longer form write up but I mean in theory just so many things you could consider. Pricing negotiations likely favour the end consumer but with $VRSN whats interesting is any structural reduction in price effectively creates revenue declines given the recurring nature of their revenues. Domains renewing at $10.26 today wont renew at that pricethats more secular though which I will admit there isnt that much visibility on at the moment"
X Link 2025-10-23T02:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@hvntting @Larryjamieson_ @plasticnewt3 Yes. ICANN is described as very sleepy too so moving pricing will be a likely long process. Also $VRSN and bulls alike point to how they don't have to invest much into their network.the argument works against them in this case"
X Link 2025-10-23T13:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Love the charts and fully agree. The ICANN monthly .Com data and mix is not being looked into and a large-part of my notes do hinge on that. Something else to consider is how long will these registrars sacrifice their own margin.2 of the largest growing registrars this year are NameCheap and SpaceShip (SpaceShip owned by NameCheap) and CVC just announced last month they'd be buying them out. For a PE sponsor would they trim costs wherever they could Just a lot here"
X Link 2025-10-23T13:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Investor_NICK_ Haha I appreciate the words a ton - I was really surprised initially since I expected the call to be relatively positive (+ the data for the quarter was strong). The concerns brought up on the call re: AdSense pricing and domain growth seem to behind the drawdown. Let's see"
X Link 2025-10-24T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$VRSN - company released a very interesting 8-K todaywill digest and share my thoughts over the weekend but at first glance the wording and aggressiveness towards some of the work is a little harsh as I did state Im also surprised why the stock is down today Haha; but will share thoughts sometime this weekend. I am skeptical of the 2% figure as Im having trouble internally reconciling it"
X Link 2025-10-24T23:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2) Im really curious as to how they made these bucketstypically bucket [--] and [--] are correlated as many speculators hold domains and have advertisements on at the same time so it is actually really tough to break it down. I get the initial push-back is that Oh of course its hard for you to but $VRSN can actually look at the data and thats what I thought at first but even the current CEO thinks so See below for his response to an analyst asking about parked domains and why the removed disclosure on the Q2 FY2014A earnings call:"
X Link 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4) Anyways Ive already sourced industry papers and reports that do a robust analysis on actual parked domains and total % of the base but looking at Whois XML API's Q3 [----] Global Domain Activity Report further supports the case these parked domains do make up more than 2% of $VRSN's number. To be conservative I only take confirmed domain parking companies in and They make up 13% of all DNS activity and this excludes parked domains on sites like GoDaddy. http://parklogic.com http://parkingcrew.net http://afternic.com http://namefind.com http://parklogic.com http://parkingcrew.net"
X Link 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5) [--] of the largest domain parking websites SEDO and BODIS automatically opt users into advertisements and both heavily rely on google see here for SEDO and here for BODIS. BODIS is owned by Team Internet Group (whos stock has been crushed this year) and a PE firm called off their offer to take them private because of these Google Changes GoDaddy the largest domain registrar (and has 80m domains parked) and while they dont explicitly state they use Googles name servers when the Oscars sued them in [----] it came out that they rely on Google to show advertisements on parked domains. Building on"
X Link 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6) Lastly the nature of the release of the 8-K is really weird. Its like RDDT releasing an 8-K on Reburns note earlier this year on Google changing their algorithm that sent the stock down or CARTs stock going down on news of the Amazon & Kroger partnership. These are not items you typically see 8-Kd and raises more concerns for me. That being said it opens the risk to the short as if the stock does draw down to a certain level whos to say management doesnt try and take steps to reverse the losses; my initial write-up here notes that $VRSN management isnt overtly focused on stock price"
X Link 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@IndustTourist Could be. Im mostly relying on the bear thesis out there + call commentary today to draw some comparison to $MH exposure to ESSER funding the same way $LRN has some funding exposure. More familiar with $MH than $LRN"
X Link 2025-10-29T03:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@IndustTourist Yeah very well could be - and thanks I appreciate that a ton. Public education companies as stocks also seem to be disfavoured a bit by public markets given lumpiness and lack of visibility into some contracts"
X Link 2025-10-29T03:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Thanks for the feedback. To your first point no incremental thoughts on the note. Does conflict with online forum posts and threads even over the last few days on NamePros BlackHat World etc. - the domain investors at the conference (those that purely buy domains for value appreciation) likely are willing to take the losses per year (if there are any for them). Not sure if the conference is indicative of total parked domain base either (likely more corporate type of domain investors there versus the average domain speculator that parks their domain) but good data point to have regardless. On"
X Link 2025-11-11T03:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4) $MH has been a major beneficiary of the post-COVID ESSER funding alongside Federal and State funding. In [----] the K-12 business was $581m. Using run-rate Q1 [----] figures that number is now at $1037m; a 177% increase (almost 2x). This is despite enrollments being down from [----] - MH using NCES data stated that enrollments were at 56m for the year. Using the same source for [----] (likely real-time) the number was at 49.5m a 17% decline. Yet MH grew the K-12 business by 177% To compare the Higher Education segment (universities colleges etc.) just saw growth of 19% over the same period. The"
X Link 2025-10-06T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$VRSN - was initially looking at as a long now flipped short over next [--] months. Have more detailed notes I've written up that I can share if interested but general idea is that growth YTD is driven by high-churn registrars through rebates (can use ICANN monthly .Com data to find YTD aggregation. WayBack machine of these registrars shows discounting of 50% in some cases. These discounts are structured as rebates if registrars hit certain growth rates so all the investment falls on registrars. After reading through the data I see growth slowing into Q1 FY2026E and since these registrars"
X Link 2025-10-15T13:36Z [---] followers, 12.3K engagements
"2) Diving deeper into the growth of the K-12 segment per MH's FY [----] report the K-12 business was $581m. Using run-rate Q1 [----] figures that number is now at $1037m; a 177% increase (almost 2x) https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/t/NYSE_MHP_2019.pdf https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/t/NYSE_MHP_2019.pdf"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3) In January [----] a class-action lawsuit was filed by MH authors against MH claiming that they were underpaid royalties. The breach of contract claims centers on MHs alleged reduction or cessation of royalty payments on revenues generated through its online platform Connect. The case was dismissed in January 2022; however it was reopened in [----]. Cengage recently settled a class action lawsuit from authors alleging very similar violations. Lawsuit alleges for two online platforms MindTap and Cengage Unlimited. Cengage settled in November [----] and announced in April [----] that they are new"
X Link 2025-10-06T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@peakcorruption @hvntting @Larryjamieson_ @plasticnewt3 $VRSN would only receive the $10 here. The resellers would accrue all of the additional gains on popular domains; $VRSN just operates the domain base so they wouldnt see that benefit unfortunately"
X Link 2025-12-10T13:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@peakcorruption @hvntting @Larryjamieson_ @plasticnewt3 Yeah if theyre allowed to take higher pricing that would help them out a lot here. AdSense was being used on the major parked domain pages - main point of contention is % of total domain base. Will see with time"
X Link 2025-12-11T03:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Quick note on recent controversy and potential red-flags @ $CPRT which is down 14% YTD so far and is down 24% from its peak share-price of $63.84. A recent lawsuit from the former VP of HR (worked at $CPRT for [--] years) reveals a culture of "debauchery"; this comes at a time when $CPRT is in the most competitive environment they've been in over the last 4-5 years against an insurgent IAA and when company executives are said to show up to meetings drunk.it's not a good sign. See here & below: https://minuscherry.substack.com/p/short-note-controversy-copart-inc"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, 12.1K engagements
"$VRSN - was initially looking at as a long now flipped short over next [--] months. Have more detailed notes I've written up that I can share if interested but general idea is that growth YTD is driven by high-churn registrars through rebates (can use ICANN monthly .Com data to find YTD aggregation. WayBack machine of these registrars shows discounting of 50% in some cases. These discounts are structured as rebates if registrars hit certain growth rates so all the investment falls on registrars. After reading through the data I see growth slowing into Q1 FY2026E and since these registrars"
X Link 2025-10-15T13:36Z [---] followers, 12.3K engagements
"Quick piece on $JACK and why I see this returning 20% - 50% by the end of [----]. Has been written up a ton before on the turnaround initatives but I noticed the elephant in the room remained to be SSS performance/catalyst on SSS recovering. Have put together some of my thoughts on why I see a 500bps beat in Q3 FY2025E. Anyways it can be found here https://open.substack.com/pub/minuscherry/p/long-6-8-months-jack-in-the-box-incr=p4qa4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2025-07-05T22:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Update on $JACK after the pretty disappointing print last week; SSS were down (6.4%) largely driven by lower transactions. Price increases only came in at 0.2%. Few places I was wrong: 1) Timing think a lot of these locations still had the promotions on these tacos / increases still flowing through - likely see this play out more in Q4 2) Attach-rate =/ % of AUV - @stockgeekTV pointed this out to me and was able to come to the conclusion that tacos are likely closer to 10% - 15% of total AUV. 30% price-increase on that with the timing lag made it tough to see material impact in this quarter"
X Link 2025-08-11T13:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$LRN down -30% as bear case of COVID funding washing out is playing out - not 1-to-1 but something to consider for $MH as they've also been a benefactor of ESSER funding over the last [--] years; gives a flavor for what could happen While it isn't as exciting as when it was supposed to IPO at $20 or when it IPO'd at $17 I still believe $MH could be a good funding short given the above mentioned tailwinds aren't necessarily going away anytime soon. If this spikes back to $14 - $17 could be good to short While it isn't as exciting as when it was supposed to IPO at $20 or when it IPO'd at $17 I"
X Link 2025-10-28T20:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"While it isn't as exciting as when it was supposed to IPO at $20 or when it IPO'd at $17 I still believe $MH could be a good funding short given the above mentioned tailwinds aren't necessarily going away anytime soon. If this spikes back to $14 - $17 could be good to short into that spike"
X Link 2025-10-06T13:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Short-Bias $MH before they IPO today - TLDR; PE-backed IPOs perform bad $MH will be no stranger as high-leverage metrics screen well for quant shorts as market makers do what they do will see reverse-gamma which is multiplied by the fact this thing has 15% float. Additionally they're losing pricing quick tailwinds of school budgets being inflated post COVID are over / phasing out and publicly available contract and renewal documents indicate 15% discounting in just the last few months on renewals. See 35% - 60% downside. Last big point is that they've been underpaying author royalties for the"
X Link 2025-07-24T13:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$MH stock up 10% as Goldman sees 92% upside over the next 12-months. I wonder who the lead under-writer here was. $MH Goldman initiates McGraw Hill as buy Goldman says its bullish on shares of the education solutions company. We initiate coverage of McGraw Hill (MH) with a Buy rating and $27 12-month price target. $MH Goldman initiates McGraw Hill as buy Goldman says its bullish on shares of the education solutions company. We initiate coverage of McGraw Hill (MH) with a Buy rating and $27 12-month price target"
X Link 2025-08-18T15:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$MH Goldman initiates McGraw Hill as buy Goldman says its bullish on shares of the education solutions company. We initiate coverage of McGraw Hill (MH) with a Buy rating and $27 12-month price target"
X Link 2025-08-18T13:03Z 59.2K followers, [----] engagements
"7) Market expectations price in 60.5% share at a 9.0x TEV / FY+1 Sales however assuming CPRT share compresses to 50% by 2030E the multiple should re-rate down to 7.0x which gives 20% downside; by then the market should begin to accept the IAA share re-gain thesis leading to underwriting 41% terminal share at a 5.0x multiple giving us 46% downside:"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ErnestWongBWM Any thoughts on $CPRT upper management I suspect it's a case where they are riding on the coat-tails of the prior generation / am not too impressed by what's been alleged"
X Link 2025-09-05T15:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Quick re-visit $JACK pre-Q3 earnings this week. Still cautiously optimistic albeit stock has swung up 20% and down 20% since the initial post here. Hoping the Taco price increases and excl. Taco price increases can cushion SSS and management gives somewhat bullish commentary through to year-end. Think if this works out the upwards revision cycle into the new FY will be a huge catalyst. That being said few additional things to note"
X Link 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4) See parallels to Cracker Barrel (CRBL) stock that has returned 67% this year from April [----] as turnaround initiatives are priced in - overall I see JACK as a stock that returns 20% - 50% through to year-end so a great way to get some of that alpha in H2 2025"
X Link 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"That being said stock is down 8.6% from the initial pitch-price of $20.19 and since black-out is over I see Biglari continuing to buy. With shares short 34% of float (per Yahoo finance) still a strong technical catalyst assuming they are still interesting in upping their stake. A 9% drawdown on what I thought was a pretty bad miss isn't.so bad I'm willing to see how this shakes out into Q4 and hopefully a positive FY [----] guidance range on that call. If things do not improve by then / favorable guidance is not provided then it no longer becomes that attractive of a R/R unless there are new"
X Link 2025-08-11T13:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fair. I was looking into this and think a huge thing is most peers are private. Could be wrong but in my diligence peers like Closer are seeing 1-2 new clients a day from DND. One thing in DND's favor as you mentioned is the Telus Assyst capability which none can really replicate. I think something interesting too is in Canada bulk of the market is actually the lower volume real estate law firms so 30%-40% are from the higher volume firms with the remainder being smaller independents. So the smaller independents that were locked in Feb [----] are looking to switch off entirely in Feb 2025."
X Link 2024-11-11T22:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$MH Add it to the list not surprised to see this. - "The complaint cites at least [----] instances of overcharges. In Osceola County one overcharge exceeded $279000. Another example cited by the state involved a textbook title sold to Miami-Dade County at a discount but offered to nine other districts at higher prices resulting in more than $250000 in additional costs." 🚨 BREAKING: Gov. Ron DeSantis announces legal action against [--] major textbook publishers "that have been exploiting our school districts at the expense of our taxpayers and at the expense of our students." "The state of Florida"
X Link 2025-08-20T16:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"🚨 BREAKING: Gov. Ron DeSantis announces legal action against [--] major textbook publishers "that have been exploiting our school districts at the expense of our taxpayers and at the expense of our students." "The state of Florida has learned that some of our school districts were being overcharged by millions of dollars for these instructional materials." "Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier took immediate action and he has led the state filing a lawsuit against McGraw Hill and Savvas Learning for violating state law and taking away valuable resources from Florida schools." @GovRonDeSantis"
X Link 2025-08-19T14:51Z 137.6K followers, 56.9K engagements
"2) JACK recently raised the prices of their Tacos from $0.99 for [--] to $1.29 - $1.99 (differing sources) from April [----] to June [----] - a Franchisee discloses Tacos made up 30% of sales and on this math I get a 500bps beat to SSS in Q3 FY2025E"
X Link 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"8) Note I am neither long nor short but this is purely just a research piece; I am not going to financially benefit in any way. I just think these are interesting developments"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"As an update on $VRSN they released a very strange 8-K on Friday rebuking the Google AdSense bear case that has been circulating post my longer form notes posted to VIC. Given the phrasing of the short sellers faulty and incorrect analysis I can only assume that they were mentioning the VIC post [--] weeks ago. Anyways spending some time this weekend I have little faith that the domains impacted will actually be 2% given previous disclosure by their own CEO alongside other industry sources and find the entire situation strange. See below: $VRSN - was initially looking at as a long now flipped"
X Link 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"1) JACK shares have lost 80% of value since July [----] falling 50% YTD - many investors remain bearish on near-term SSS performance citing a lack of a catalyst; however there is a clear catalyst driving a significant beat to Q3 FY2025E numbers and beyond"
X Link 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@HatfieldCapital @ValleyFallsRI Yeah. She's not without fault I'll say that but I think very very far from a disaster. Let's see"
X Link 2025-03-19T23:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"2) Brought back wedges and initial checks seem positive - stores are sold out so should be a good tailwind. See this Reddit Post and comments below: https://www.reddit.com/r/jackinthebox/comments/1mawhep/potato_wedges_are_back/ https://www.reddit.com/r/jackinthebox/comments/1mawhep/potato_wedges_are_back/"
X Link 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3) Recent potential activist involvement in Biglari Capital Corp is a positive - known to get buy up minority stakes in underperforming fast-food / fast-casual chains and push for change; Biglari has signaled that they will be purchasing more which likely drives in more merger arb pods etc. which is going to force shorts to cover (short interest at 35% is asinine for a business thats not a fraud)"
X Link 2025-07-05T22:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6) CPRT has increased their share of the total industry from 41.0% to 60.5% over November [----] to today per 3P data primarily due to weakness in IAA (no functioning website etc.). Now that IAA under new ownership has rectified these issues insurance companies WANT to have EQUAL SHARE amongst the [--] largest salvage vehicle providers and are going to the main driving force in share normalizing"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Also good thing to note is that $MH was targeting an initial "$19.00 and $22.00 per share" range. They are now coming in at $17.00 - makes you think about how roadshow demand actually looked since they raised 18% less than the mid-point of the range as of July 18th [----]. Likely had to cut price due to lower demand; thing might pop today / next few days but underlying investors clearly had to be convinced to take this on their books. Good context to have if considering a position. Lower proceeds raised also makes the leverage issue worse since they intended to pay-down debt here with the"
X Link 2025-07-24T13:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3) Think street expectations for SSS are very compressed right now and assuming traffic doesn't give think they can surprise on the upside. Let's see in [--] days"
X Link 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Is definitely a larger market cap name and has historically been relatively stable; can maybe be used as a hedge in a portfolio. Anyways have been looking at a few long ideas too as to not saturate this feed with a bunch of short ideas haha"
X Link 2025-10-15T13:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"1) A recent lawsuit filed by the former Global VP of Human Relations in April [----] titled Christine Arnold vs. Copart Inc. reveals a culture at CPRT of executives showing up to meetings drunk being caught with prostitute at company sponsored events (and forcing HR to accommodate them) and a large male executive almost cornering the plaintiff and screaming at her when she spoke out against this internally"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ZissouCapital @ToffCap Oh interesting. Think that's a huge catalyst where US mutual funds will finally be able to buy $AIF.TO. Not a lot of names with the quality the company has in the public markets. Strange how much of the ownership base comes from active investors versus passive investors today"
X Link 2024-11-11T21:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1) More conviction in the $MH potential short (posted long form write-up on VIC will circulate post 45-day period) as they reported Q1 [----] earnings yesterday. The gave [----] full-year guidance revenue growth of (4%).well below the long-term revenue growth range marketed of +5%. They claim it's due to the one-time cyclicity in the K-12 market and that FY [----] will suffer from a lower fiscal budget for their end-market that should be rectified come FY [----]. I doubt it; see below:"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Maku_Capital @ErnestWongBWM Boys-only club extravagant company parties at shooting ranches (99% men) execs spending company $ on prostitutes etc. - take it with a grain of salt but not something you really want to be hearing for a "compounder". (again can all just be disgruntled ex-employees)"
X Link 2025-09-05T15:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2) Beyond this a recent May [----] lawsuit alleges that CPRT sells vehicles that are materially different from what a VIN search would give you and forensic analysis of the car however by selling through 3rd-party brokers CPRT creates a figurative black-box shielding them from potential liability"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks for the feedback. To your first point no incremental thoughts on the note. Does conflict with online forum posts and threads even over the last few days on NamePros BlackHat World etc. - the domain investors at the conference (those that purely buy domains for value appreciation) likely are willing to take the losses per year (if there are any for them). Not sure if the conference is indicative of total parked domain base either (likely more corporate type of domain investors there versus the average domain speculator that parks their domain) but good data point to have regardless. On"
X Link 2025-11-11T03:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Thoughts on $UBER and $DASH investing in that market Recent job postings over the last few months suggest they're going to heavily subsidize to try and steal market share as they grow the segment out internally. From a consumer standpoint too if there's a world where I can bundle food delivery + grocery delivery it's attractive. Not sure the benefits but using Amazon and their Prime value proposition as a potential parallel for consumer value proposition. Or is there a world where all [--] can co-exist"
X Link 2025-09-14T16:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4) An ex-employee alleges that CPRT consistently engages in shill-bidding and that they even had an entire department of the company dedicated to the practice"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TidefallCapital It really is crazy. Makes sense though when you consider IR has historically been outsourced"
X Link 2024-11-12T21:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Investor_NICK_ Haha I appreciate the words a ton - I was really surprised initially since I expected the call to be relatively positive (+ the data for the quarter was strong). The concerns brought up on the call re: AdSense pricing and domain growth seem to behind the drawdown. Let's see"
X Link 2025-10-24T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Trying to be more consistent with getting some of my ideas out there - as a start just posted this $FIVE 6-8 month long uploaded to VIC on March 13th. Not as actionable now as the thesis has largely played out. Came across another interesting 6-8 month buy last night hoping to write that up today over the holiday/tomorrow morning and get that out. Anyways if interested linked work is here: https://minuscherry.substack.com/p/archive-long-6-8-months-five-below https://minuscherry.substack.com/p/archive-long-6-8-months-five-below"
X Link 2025-07-04T14:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"P.S. - Don't let yourself be exit liquidity"
X Link 2025-07-24T13:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JimmyDaGreek76 For legal reasons I wont publicly be speaking on the name for the next little bit - sorry but wont comment for now"
X Link 2024-11-23T20:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@biberleuer @Santi_Robledo @GrandTokamak @HighyieldHarry @27XVII @Bondifrench Likewise - you'd think they would see what I see but again could be very very wrong. Thank you for the visibility here as I continue to learn"
X Link 2024-11-12T15:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yeah that makes sense. Do you think that's mostly because those large orders can really only be handled by $CART right now given the difference in the courier/shopper demographic I think that might be one of the bigger perceived risks with the name so if you can get comfort on that it's probably a really good name to hold for the next 2-3 years"
X Link 2025-09-14T16:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6) Lastly the nature of the release of the 8-K is really weird. Its like RDDT releasing an 8-K on Reburns note earlier this year on Google changing their algorithm that sent the stock down or CARTs stock going down on news of the Amazon & Kroger partnership. These are not items you typically see 8-Kd and raises more concerns for me. That being said it opens the risk to the short as if the stock does draw down to a certain level whos to say management doesnt try and take steps to reverse the losses; my initial write-up here notes that $VRSN management isnt overtly focused on stock price"
X Link 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I was doing some work on this before the report and am fairly confident on the bit of subscriber growth being overstated as they began soft forcing consumer sign ups. Internally the company changed the way they went to the market for these subscriptions in a way that was exceptionally misleading. Would say its far more likely to be the case than that thesis being a reach"
X Link 2024-12-18T18:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Get your points but you have to consider the implications IF the claims re: sexual harassment company money being spent on prostitutes massive drinking culture in the office / during meetings are all true. Does it matter for EPS Probably not right now (no means is this fraud) but if it is true it speaks to the character of some of the VPs and higher-ups. Will they be entirely truthful especially at a time where IAA is taking share Sure the CEO and CFO are the face of the company but they rely on the alleged perpetrators a lot as well given how lean the company is (in my opinion). Do you also"
X Link 2025-09-05T15:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@nyseSRCL @SeanSilcoff @globeandmail Do find it fascinating that the debate behind this stock has been "Matt yes" or "Matt no" over the past [--] months"
X Link 2024-12-12T20:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5) Interestingly enough the Q3 FY2025 10-Q updated their risk disclosure to include the impact of "government investigation" - not a smoking gun but the coincidence in timing is a little suspicious:"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"7) Note that growth in the K-12 business was 4.1% in FY [----] and negative 7% in FY [----] until ESSER funding drove the 10% - 15% Y/Y growth rates from FY [----] to FY 2025"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yeah fully agree. Was doing some work before on the name before this report but I had concerns around how they disclose delinquency rates in their IR (delinquency = miss 2nd paymentso if the customers miss the 3rd or 4th payments they arent really included). Theres also a Facebook group called Sezzle Up which shows how ridiculous in my opinion this service has gotten. Only BNPL that lets you buy gifftcards use it on Amazon etc. Growth driven from change in GTM for the subscriber business (have gathered some evidence they began the auto sign-up in April which checks out with wording changes in"
X Link 2024-12-18T19:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yep and even .Io and other non-traditionally domains. Long-term a lot of my friends and peers don't view .Com as the "must-have" it sounds like it once was. Think based off the long-term headwinds + the above near-term challenges this is more like a 10x - 15x EBITDA stock at best assuming it continues to pay out FCF in buybacks and dividends. Let's see"
X Link 2025-10-15T17:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MapleTreeCap Nice. Any thoughts on why you think they can grow 3% annually next [--] years and into perpetuity I'm short-biased right now and think they are seeing a lot of pressure on the pricing side in a saturated market with not much growth"
X Link 2025-08-01T21:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"As an update on $MH it has been approximately two months since my initial post on VIC so I'm now able to share the contents of that write-up. While not as exciting as shorting at the expected $20 pre-IPO (when I started looking at the name) or $17 at IPO I don't foresee any of the headwinds impacting the stock + business going away anytime soon. See the thread below for more specifics but overall: 1) You have a majority owner (85%) that is incentivized to sell large chunks quickly post-lockup 2) 20% discounting for their K-12 segment (50% of revenues) 3) A recently revived lawsuit from"
X Link 2025-10-06T13:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Love the charts and fully agree. The ICANN monthly .Com data and mix is not being looked into and a large-part of my notes do hinge on that. Something else to consider is how long will these registrars sacrifice their own margin.2 of the largest growing registrars this year are NameCheap and SpaceShip (SpaceShip owned by NameCheap) and CVC just announced last month they'd be buying them out. For a PE sponsor would they trim costs wherever they could Just a lot here"
X Link 2025-10-23T13:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@rubicon59 Is that because they are "too big" to consider this kind of stuff or do you feel the accusations are based on flimsy analysis"
X Link 2025-01-15T18:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"2) Im really curious as to how they made these bucketstypically bucket [--] and [--] are correlated as many speculators hold domains and have advertisements on at the same time so it is actually really tough to break it down. I get the initial push-back is that Oh of course its hard for you to but $VRSN can actually look at the data and thats what I thought at first but even the current CEO thinks so See below for his response to an analyst asking about parked domains and why the removed disclosure on the Q2 FY2014A earnings call:"
X Link 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"IAA seems to be growing despite these cyclical headwinds which I guess is the biggest cause for concern for me. I do understand there is nuance in the contracts but 3P data has a material variance which I guess you can explain to the progressive contract but this explanation to me at least raises some more questions than answers. What are your thoughts on the IAA share-gain thesis"
X Link 2025-09-09T12:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"5) [--] of the largest domain parking websites SEDO and BODIS automatically opt users into advertisements and both heavily rely on google see here for SEDO and here for BODIS. BODIS is owned by Team Internet Group (whos stock has been crushed this year) and a PE firm called off their offer to take them private because of these Google Changes GoDaddy the largest domain registrar (and has 80m domains parked) and while they dont explicitly state they use Googles name servers when the Oscars sued them in [----] it came out that they rely on Google to show advertisements on parked domains. Building on"
X Link 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@LionheartInves1 What do you see as the catalyst in the net-nets you've invested in I only ask since [--] years seems pretty near-term to an extent; or is it all over the place"
X Link 2024-10-16T20:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ResearchHL @Sophoninvest Fair rebuttal. I'm mostly concerned about recent metrics and if they were inflated pre-IPO. As you mentioned though there is no true alternative that I see as of yet to Reddit so that itself may be bullish"
X Link 2025-03-19T01:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Jaro_rogue They started this in April per my checks for all new customer sign-ups"
X Link 2024-12-18T18:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"& that's fair. From what I see at least people don't just buy [--] serving of these tacos; sometimes buying 2-3 given the smaller size / can justify it given the lower prices. So on any given order even if the customer orders [--] servings that won't move the attach rate-up that much and seeing how much of a focus this is on social media communities I'd wager it should at least drive a material impact to SSS. I think the odds that they come in at-least low negative single-digits are pretty strong and that can maybe be enough to start regaining some of the valuation premium that's been lost. Let's"
X Link 2025-07-14T13:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1) New location openings doing pretty well so far - lines are stretching out and dining capacity is full. Interesting to note; closing underperforming stores and new stores opening should benefit from the initial surge"
X Link 2025-08-04T13:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"(5/5) Serious ethical concerns around Proud and the board. Chair of the Audit committee owns 1% of total S/O with precedence of Proud gaming disclosure to buyers and investors"
X Link 2024-11-11T22:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$CGX (TSE:CGX) - Cineplex is a Canadian film-exhibition business (think movie theatres). They trade on a consensus TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA multiple of 6.0x however a movie-by-movie build gives a TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA of 5.0x. This is the thesis: Shares of Cineplex (TSE:CGX) have fallen over 50% since the WHO declared COVID-19 as a global pandemic which saw the company cut its dividend and enter a period where substantial year-over-year losses were incurred. Before the dividend cut CGX was trading as a REIT (as seen with their IPO branding of Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund) and the cut itself"
X Link 2024-10-16T19:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"8) Again have a lot more thoughts here but out of respect for VIC requirements and rules I will share more information that I put into that write-up when I can which is mid-September"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@o_li_vi_err How do you feel about the revenue CAGR's falling FOR DoProcess & Ghost Practise See below for the first-time disclosure in Q4'FY24A & the presentation today $DND.TO"
X Link 2024-11-12T15:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ResearRagnarok If I'm underrated you guys are slept on entirely - craziest hit-rate % on ideas I've seen here haha"
X Link 2025-08-11T13:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@dcurras1 Definitely - will caveat that for the controversies at least this is more of a research + investigative piece versus information that would directly impact EPS and FCF (maybe indirectly.) but still things investors should know about when underwriting the thesis"
X Link 2025-09-10T13:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@invest091 Thank you Likewise really appreciate it"
X Link 2025-09-10T13:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Yeah I agree. Explore more in my longer form write up but I mean in theory just so many things you could consider. Pricing negotiations likely favour the end consumer but with $VRSN whats interesting is any structural reduction in price effectively creates revenue declines given the recurring nature of their revenues. Domains renewing at $10.26 today wont renew at that pricethats more secular though which I will admit there isnt that much visibility on at the moment"
X Link 2025-10-23T02:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Read this somewhere on here but as dangerous as it sounds to say this not too sure if it's entirely on her. Paper Source went bankrupt during COVID and 80% of their business was brick-and-mortar. Forever [--] was coming out with restructuring. At least for the earnings call I thought she did a good job at resetting expectations and maintaining that beat-and-raise cadence they set late last year. Up 9% AH so let's see how the stock opens tomorrow"
X Link 2025-03-19T21:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4) Anyways Ive already sourced industry papers and reports that do a robust analysis on actual parked domains and total % of the base but looking at Whois XML API's Q3 [----] Global Domain Activity Report further supports the case these parked domains do make up more than 2% of $VRSN's number. To be conservative I only take confirmed domain parking companies in and They make up 13% of all DNS activity and this excludes parked domains on sites like GoDaddy. http://parklogic.com http://parkingcrew.net http://afternic.com http://namefind.com http://parklogic.com http://parkingcrew.net"
X Link 2025-10-27T13:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"How accurate do you feel credit card data may be for $FIVE Know the name has traded off CC data for the past few quarters but have surprised analysts on both the buy-side and sell-side; think $FIVE might actually be materially cash and debit based given the demographic. Not that I disagree with your view I'm personally really bullish on Q1'2025 as they lap in my opinion a cyclical issue with Squishmallows but just curious on the CC build to get to your Y/Y growth figure"
X Link 2025-01-13T16:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"No position but am leaning towards a short-bias more so after the call yesterday largely due to the RBA & IAA thesis (see you speak about this nice) and just some governance concerns. Might type up some of my thoughts this weekend since I'm surprised some of this stuff isn't more documented on the governance side at-least"
X Link 2025-09-05T15:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@atelicinvest I think the downside here may come from your time horizon. If it takes a business 4-5 years to realize a 50% discount your IRR isn't as attractive versus that on a 2-3 year time horizon and it becomes more attractive to just buy the S&P"
X Link 2024-11-11T23:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3) Additionally countless records of CPRT seemingly tampering with cars to hide damage selling cars factually worse than listed online and sometimes with fake titles / wrong titles in the cars (beyond just CPRT selling a bad used car - this is material differences in advertising)"
X Link 2025-09-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"For sure especially in a time like this. I think I recall the Reddit post that's what actually motivated me to look into it further really quick. Thanks for the words and let's see how this plays out Like your earnings review on $CPRT as well gives much better grasp on fundamentals + bull-case"
X Link 2025-09-10T13:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Sorry Below is a short description of the opportunity: $CGX (TSE:CGX) - Cineplex is a Canadian film-exhibition business (think movie theatres). ___ They trade on a consensus TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA multiple of 6.0x however a movie-by-movie build gives a TEV/Pre-IFRS [--] EBITDA of 5.0x. This is the thesis: shares of Cineplex (TSE:CGX) have fallen over 50% since the WHO declared COVID-19 as a global pandemic which saw the company cut its dividend and enter a period where substantial year-over-year losses were incurred. Before the dividend cut CGX was trading as a REIT (as seen with their IPO"
X Link 2024-10-16T19:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@atelicinvest Fair. I guess the only names I've come across like these are low single-digit growers with low float so I guess bias on my end"
X Link 2024-11-11T23:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@plasticnewt3 How do you feel about competition Have done a lot of research on DND and am a short personally given Proud and the deterioration of how many customers use the product. Thoughts on peers like Closer & LDD"
X Link 2024-11-11T20:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
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