#  @Impact3Agency Impact3 Impact3 posts on X about milk, stocks, inflation, bitcoin the most. They currently have [---------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1668531053739364352/interactions)  - [--] Week [---------] +51% - [--] Month [---------] +395% - [--] Months [----------] +2,615% - [--] Year [----------] +25,329,224% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1668531053739364352/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] -69% - [--] Month [---] +17% - [--] Months [---] +381% - [--] Year [---] +41,500% ### Followers: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1668531053739364352/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +2.60% - [--] Month [-----] +19% - [--] Months [-----] +255% - [--] Year [-----] +3,842% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1668531053739364352/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) #3671 [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [countries](/list/countries) [stocks](/list/stocks) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [currencies](/list/currencies) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) #3860 [social networks](/list/social-networks) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) **Social topic influence** [milk](/topic/milk) #362, [stocks](/topic/stocks), [inflation](/topic/inflation) #152, [bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) #6273, [$btc](/topic/$btc) #1160, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs), [liquidity](/topic/liquidity), [fed](/topic/fed), [gold](/topic/gold), [debt](/topic/debt) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@kalshi](/creator/undefined) [@kobeissiletter](/creator/undefined) [@cryptorover](/creator/undefined) [@milkroad](/creator/undefined) [@polymarket](/creator/undefined) [@m3melody](/creator/undefined) [@ashcrypto](/creator/undefined) [@whitehouse](/creator/undefined) [@unusualwhales](/creator/undefined) [@deitaone](/creator/undefined) [@web3academy](/creator/undefined) [@barchart](/creator/undefined) [@investingcom](/creator/undefined) [@milkroaddaily](/creator/undefined) [@kylereidhead](/creator/undefined) [@bulltheoryio](/creator/undefined) [@coinbureau](/creator/undefined) [@coinvo](/creator/undefined) [@bitteljulien](/creator/undefined) [@peterschiff](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx) [Ethereum (ETH)](/topic/$eth) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "@web3academy_ @KyleReidhead @Permissionless Great piece once again friends 👏" [X Link](https://x.com/Impact3Agency/status/1703760432912105689) 2023-09-18T13:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@web3academy_ @CantoPublic @EclipseFND @optimismFND Just wow" [X Link](https://x.com/Impact3Agency/status/1704494432299409867) 2023-09-20T13:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@web3academy_ @BuildOnBase @arbitrum @optimismFND @Uniswap Another banging infographic Love it 👏" [X Link](https://x.com/Impact3Agency/status/1712462127473271051) 2023-10-12T13:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@web3academy_ @RTFKT @MercedesBenzNXT @Courtyard_NFT @solana More espresso less depresso 💜 GM" [X Link](https://x.com/Impact3Agency/status/1718931955062886616) 2023-10-30T10:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@web3academy_ @hashflow @Aptos_Network @avax Informative as always Cheers for this" [X Link](https://x.com/Impact3Agency/status/1720028630145728943) 2023-11-02T10:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@web3academy_ @chainlink GM" [X Link](https://x.com/Impact3Agency/status/1729812222291972141) 2023-11-29T10:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@web3academy_ The future is scary" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1743274472700883261) 2024-01-05T14:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@KyleReidhead @MilkRoadDaily @eigenlayer" [X Link](https://x.com/Impact3Agency/status/1777771941656420637) 2024-04-09T18:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@KyleReidhead @jkey_eth @Safaryclub @Permissionless LFG 🫡" [X Link](https://x.com/Impact3Agency/status/1844093891160785341) 2024-10-09T19:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Is the trade war back Trump is imposing 50% tariffs on the EU Starting June 1st" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1925889673634648354) 2025-05-23T12:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "In case you missed it - We decipher the murky world of Fed Liquidity - The Big Beautiful Bill passed the House - Jamie Dimon warns of US stagflation risk Dive in here https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/what-is-federal-reserve-stealth-qe https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/what-is-federal-reserve-stealth-qe" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1926388741330915754) 2025-05-24T21:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "What to look out for this week Tuesday - Consumer Confidence data - read on how optimistic (or anxious) consumers are feeling about the economy. Wednesday - Fed meeting minutes - a peek behind the curtain at what the Fed was really thinking last time they met. Thursday - US Q1 [----] GDP data - official numbers for how the US economy started the year. Friday - April PCE Inflation data - assessing how much prices are rising" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1927093131196915890) 2025-05-26T20:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@TomasOnMarkets Funny how yields keep triggering policy responses. yet we still treat each one like a surprise" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1927434560695845306) 2025-05-27T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The #1 reason stocks soared in 2020/21 The Fed went on a monster money printing spree after COVID hit They started buying bonds like crazy and added them onto their balance sheet. Translation There a was a huge liquidity injection in the market" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1927458043177934882) 2025-05-27T20:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Rising long term Treasury yields = higher mortgage rates and borrowing costs Possibly slowing the US economy The US is already paying about $1 trillion annually in debt interest Which will increase with higher yields" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1927749249527324821) 2025-05-28T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TradingThomas3 Why cant we just ignore it and carry on until a final decision is made" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1928176369206198626) 2025-05-29T19:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Nvidia has officially taken the top spot as the worlds most valuable company reaching a $3.44 trillion valuation and surpassing Microsoft. $NVDA $MSFT" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1930009503929643289) 2025-06-03T21:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Both CPI and core CPI just came in below expectations (again) That makes it four straight months that inflation has come in below expectations. Looks like the tariffs are not hurting inflation numbers. yet. (Scroll to see what's next for markets 👇)" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1933170566741262431) 2025-06-12T14:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Israel and Iran are officially at war. Missiles are flying all over the Middle East. But what does this mean for financial assets (a thread 🧵) https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/how-will-the-middle-east-conflict-affect-marketsutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=17june_thread1 https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/how-will-the-middle-east-conflict-affect-marketsutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=17june_thread1" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1935042117509988836) 2025-06-17T18:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "REMINDER: The FOMC will make their decision on rate cuts at 2:00PM ET today. Even though many are calling the FED to lower rates. There's currently a 99.9% chance of no rate cut. The next rate cut is expected to happen in September" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1935291464273310124) 2025-06-18T11:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Markets dipped on fear last week but it didnt last long The VIX barely moved during the Middle East headlines Both stocks and $BTC have already fully recovered History shows geopolitical shocks are usually short-lived dips not lasting downturns" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1935344270480916981) 2025-06-18T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Markets arent buying the fear If the Iran-Israel conflict were truly a threat to the global economy. Credit spreads would be blowing out Instead theyre steady and still well below the spike we saw after Liberation Day" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1935389575817609732) 2025-06-18T17:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BREAKING: No rate cut The FOMC leaves rates unchanged for the 4th straight meeting. Just like we said earlier All eyes are now on September for that first potential cut of [----]. REMINDER: The FOMC will make their decision on rate cuts at 2:00PM ET today. Even though many are calling the FED to lower rates. There's currently a 99.9% chance of no rate cut. The next rate cut is expected to happen in September. https://t.co/Vosecb0prH REMINDER: The FOMC will make their decision on rate cuts at 2:00PM ET today. Even though many are calling the FED to lower rates. There's currently a 99.9% chance" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1935402492520710480) 2025-06-18T18:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Why All Roads Lead to Currency Debasement w/ @davidbrickell80 The Fed isnt trying to control inflation. Theyre managing a slow-motion debt crisis. Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 Intro 01:22 Do Geopolitical Tensions Impact Markets 03:14 Is the Dip In By Now 06:04 Current Macro Landscape Explained 09:19 Short-Term Macro Outlook 15:28 Ledn 16:04 Definitive 16:36 How Liquidity Moves Markets Beyond Rates 22:36 Trumps Economic Plan & Bessents Thesis 26:45 Dollar Strength vs. Global Liquidity 31:36 Is the Dollar Heading Lower 34:21 What Will the Fed Do Next 38:46 Is the Crypto Cycle Changing" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1935410894252470476) 2025-06-18T18:54Z [----] followers, 28.4K engagements "Hot take: The Israel-Iran war is not a big deal. Here are [--] charts that explain why. (a thread 🧵)" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1935684079137222906) 2025-06-19T13:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The VIX barely moved. For the uninitiated heres the quick rundown: - High VIX = lots of fear in the market On the news of the Middle East conflict the VIX saw a very small spike. This was miles away from the post Liberation Day highs we saw just a few weeks ago" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1935684097906741692) 2025-06-19T13:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Just like the VIX. High credit spreads = more fear in the market. And once again they barely moved. If this conflict posed a serious threat to the global economy wed expect credit spreads to be a lot higher" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1935684115493499086) 2025-06-19T13:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Feds projecting two cuts in [----] But dont expect the first one before September https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/when-will-the-fed-finally-cut-ratesutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=19june_thurs https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/when-will-the-fed-finally-cut-ratesutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=19june_thurs" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1935744411620811075) 2025-06-19T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tariffs could decide the fate of rate cuts With full tariffs inflation stays stuck above 3% through [----] A partial tariff scenario sees inflation easing but still hovering above 2.5% Only the no-tariff path gets inflation below 2.2% (right where the Fed wants it)" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1935804825427743190) 2025-06-19T21:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The labor market is starting to crack Continuing jobless claims have been rising steadily since mid-March now hitting the highest level in over a year Thats not what a strong economy looks like If this trend keeps up rate cut debates might shift from when to how fast" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1935817372642013253) 2025-06-19T21:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@APompliano Bitcoin is [--] years old" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1935834134867566979) 2025-06-19T22:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "By now we all know there was no rate cut. But how did assets ( $SPX & $BTC) react to this news Let's check it out. (a thread 🧵) BREAKING: No rate cut The FOMC leaves rates unchanged for the 4th straight meeting. Just like we said earlier All eyes are now on September for that first potential cut of [----]. BREAKING: No rate cut The FOMC leaves rates unchanged for the 4th straight meeting. Just like we said earlier All eyes are now on September for that first potential cut of 2025" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1936076618558308457) 2025-06-20T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A civil war is brewing inside the Fed According to the dot plot: [--] members expect 2+ rate cuts this year (likely worried about slowing growth) [--] members expect zero cuts in [----] (still focused on inflation risks) But keep in mind that Powells term as Fed Chair ends in May [----] & Trump wants lower rates So if I was an FOMC member jostling for the big job I would probably be leaning dovish and calling for rate cuts" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1936423893562163413) 2025-06-21T14:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@KobeissiLetter So are tarrifs still a thing" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1936874354173735180) 2025-06-22T19:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Here's everything that's happened in the last [--] hours: - The U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear sites - Russia claimed countries are ready to supply Iran with nukes - Irans parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1937133565483040783) 2025-06-23T13:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Heres the TL;DR from Powells latest speech: - No sign of a rate cut coming anytime soon - Inflation is still somewhat elevated - Tariffs could push inflation even higher Key macro events this week 👇 https://t.co/vMXNIjtCLc Key macro events this week 👇 https://t.co/vMXNIjtCLc" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1937495048142331982) 2025-06-24T12:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The Treasury General Account (TGA) is bleeding and thats no accident Over $400 billion has been drained from the government's cash pile in recent months. Why Because the debt ceiling capped how much new debt could be issued But that ceiling is about to lift And when it does expect a flood of new Treasuries to hit the market as the government scrambles to refill its TGA Likely to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars This has happened before. During the last two TGA rebuilds 10-year yields surged by 180bps and 150bps The system is quietly being prepped to absorb the next wave of" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1937594084430086529) 2025-06-24T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Fed might be teeing up banks to quietly absorb more U.S. debt So whats actually happening Wells Fargo could add $1.15T to its balance sheet if SLR rules are relaxed Thats not QE but it could have a similar effect Heres why it matters. The Supplementary Leverage Ratio ( SLR ) was meant to keep banks safe after [----] but now it penalizes them for holding "safe" assets like Treasuries With the U.S. running wartime sized deficits and foreign buyers pulling back Treasury liquidity is thinning Even Jerome Powell admitted he's somewhat concerned The fix Adjusting the SLR could free up trillions" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1937616766311809363) 2025-06-24T21:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Globalflows Janitor in my high school" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1937630486886559779) 2025-06-24T21:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The Government has recently spent more than $400bn from its savings (also called the TGA) This is due to the dynamics around the US Governments debt ceiling. But once the debt ceiling issue is fixed the Government will be flooding the market with bucketloads of new debt to refill the TGA. Here's why this could be bad news for risk assets like the $SPY (keep scrolling)" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1937954929458745752) 2025-06-25T19:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Every time we've had a TGA rebuild we've seen a rise in treasury yields. But is rising treasury yields a good or bad thing (keep scrolling for the answer)" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1937954945527124225) 2025-06-25T19:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Rising treasury yields is NOT good news for the $SPY 10-year yields rising above 4.5% = weakness in US stocks TL;DR: An increase in the debt ceiling could trigger a pullback in the $SPY" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1937954961956213053) 2025-06-25T19:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "PCE Inflation data for May is in: Headline 2.3% YoY vs. 2.3% expected (2.1% previous) Core 2.7% YoY vs. 2.6% expected (2.5% previous) We're quietly creeping back up again Key macro events this week 👇 https://t.co/vMXNIjtCLc Key macro events this week 👇 https://t.co/vMXNIjtCLc" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1938579840124252472) 2025-06-27T12:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The market is now pricing in [--] rate cuts by EOY. One in September another in October and a final cut in December. If this actually plays out this would be HUGE" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1938654899035877697) 2025-06-27T17:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Don't know us yet Okay this is what we do We cover market moving trends central bank strategies and global shifts that matter every Tuesday & Thursday by @MilkRoadDaily & @TomasOnMarkets Helping you navigate the world of macro investing. Free https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250628_signup https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250628_signup" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1938998333005242468) 2025-06-28T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Key macro events in July 2025: 1/ ISM Data Jul [--] We're waiting for this figure to break out above [--]. 2/ CPI Data Jul [--] If CPI continues to come in lower than expected we can expect more rate cuts in the future. 3/ FOMC meeting Jul [--] No rate cut expected but heres what the markets currently pricing in for the months ahead 👇 The market is now pricing in [--] rate cuts by EOY. One in September another in October and a final cut in December. If this actually plays out this would be HUGE. https://t.co/aJkhXjjAPs The market is now pricing in [--] rate cuts by EOY. One in September another in October" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1939783505065779358) 2025-06-30T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "On todays Milk Road Macro Shes a leading voice at the intersection of crypto and macro The author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter Former Head of Research at CoinDesk and Genesis Trading Shes spent years breaking down where crypto and macro collide helping investors make sense of market cycles liquidity trends and whats really moving prices. Its none other than Noelle Acheson - @NoelleInMadrid 🕛 12PM ET Live on X" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1940379993198256473) 2025-07-02T12:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Nomura has a track record of nailing their market calls. Every time theyve made a prediction stocks have seen strong returns over the next [--] months. And last week They projected $114B in equity buying over the next month. This is their LARGEST prediction yet. $SPY and $QQQ are getting ready for lift-off Wall Streets about to get soaked with cash. There's something called a 'volatility control fund' that adjusts its exposure to risk assets based on market volatility. - If volatility target they reduce exposure - If volatility target they increase exposure So when https://t.co/qMqsG2ll1h Wall" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1940497430640054492) 2025-07-02T19:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We did NOT see this coming. We asked the Milk Road Macro audience if the Fed should start cutting rates 👇 We were expecting a flood of YES PLEASE. But instead we got a surprisingly level-headed response: "The FED should hold steady and watch the data closely" Seems like our audience is quite the mature bunch" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1940508283389071520) 2025-07-02T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA IS IN: Actual: [------] Expected: [------] Previous: [------] Jobless claims are trending downwards" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1940754642314711331) 2025-07-03T12:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA IS IN: Actual: [------] Expected: [------] Previous: [------] Stronger jobs report = less reason for FED to cut rates" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1940755021886640413) 2025-07-03T12:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The labor market just came in way hotter than expected: - The U.S. added 147K jobs in June (vs. 111K expected) - Unemployment dropped to 4.1% (vs. 4.3% forecast) As a result the odds of getting [--] rate cuts this year just took a hit. It fell from 48% to 30% in a week. Strong jobs = weaker case for cuts. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA IS IN: Actual: [------] Expected: [------] Previous: [------] Stronger jobs report = less reason for FED to cut rates INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA IS IN: Actual: [------] Expected: [------] Previous: [------] Stronger jobs report = less reason for FED to cut rates" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1940758704888123458) 2025-07-03T13:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "One of our readers just shared their thoughts on our latest analysis: They came in feeling cautious about the short-term market outlook but walked away with a clearer view of both near-term risks and long-term opportunities. We love hearing how our work helps you navigate the markets with more confidence" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1940787665940762886) 2025-07-03T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The US govt debt is set to increase by more than $4T (thanks to Trumps One Big Beautiful Bill) Sure rising debt isnt sustainable. But it's generally bullish in the medium-term. Just look at $NDAQ and its recent V-shaped rally 👇" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1940848044788142358) 2025-07-03T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The new Senate bill could push U.S. deficits to 7.1% A level historically seen only during crises' Adding over $1 trillion in debt compared to the House version Thats far above the 6.1% projected under current law And this assumes no recession hits Which could make things even worse" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1941195331611525483) 2025-07-04T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "US national debt to top $38 trillion next year @Polymarket says it has a 92% chance of happening" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1941217962985435138) 2025-07-04T19:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "President Trumps latest move 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea starting August The big question does this actually move the needle for US manufacturing or just add another headache for global supply chains" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1942508977214124304) 2025-07-08T09:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Heres a quick recap on the tariff saga: - April 2: Trump announces reciprocal tariffs on "Liberation Day" - April 9: Installed a "90 day pause" on the reciprocal tariffs This [--] day pause was scheduled to expire on July [--] (today). But its now been extended to August [--]. The tariff picture is still murky. But we don't expect negative impacts on the market as intense as early April" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1942954421438357997) 2025-07-09T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "JUST IN: Trump announces brand new tariffs on these countries 👇 20% on the Philippines 25% on Brunei 25% on Moldova 25% on Japan 25% on South Korea 25% on Malaysia 25% on Tunisia 25% on Kazakhstan 30% on Algeria 30% on Iraq 30% on Libya 30% on Bosnia and Herzegovina 30% on South Africa 32% on Indonesia 35% on Bangladesh 35% on Serbia 36% on Thailand 36% on Cambodia 40% on Myanmar 40% on Laos" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1942982402152038894) 2025-07-09T16:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Tariffs are back in the headlines. In April Trump announced sweeping tariffs on [--] countries. The markets sold off hard. Since then we've seen a 90-day pause a flurry of trade talks and now a fresh round of tariffs. Here's what's really going on and what it means for economy. ( a thread )" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1943324405633028529) 2025-07-10T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Below are the top [--] sources of US imports Out of these countries Trump has only struck a trade with China and Vietnam" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1943324422938726760) 2025-07-10T15:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "What happens when cash stops flowing Click here to find out https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/a-short-liquidity-crunch-is-aheadutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250710_thurs https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/a-short-liquidity-crunch-is-aheadutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250710_thurs" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1943347008552743246) 2025-07-10T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Do not look past this - pay attention Over the last [--] months the U.S. quietly injected $500B into the markets. without printing a single dime. This injection came from a huge pile of cash called the Treasury General Account (TGA) Draining the TGA = liquidity boost = good for risk assets But heres the catch: The account is now nearly empty. And refilling it could suck liquidity out of the markets next. Let us explain ( a thread )" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1943703177737765288) 2025-07-11T16:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "When the debt ceiling was hit the government couldnt borrow. So it tapped into the TGA (its savings account) But now thanks to Trumps latest bill raising the ceiling by $5T borrowing is back. That means a wave of new debt is coming to refill the TGA. Refilling the TGA = liquidity drain = bad for risk assets ( keep scrolling to see how this affects $SPX and $BTC )" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1943703194095534094) 2025-07-11T16:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Looking at the last two times the TGA was rebuilt (in red). we saw flat or negative price action in both $SPX and $BTC History doesnt repeat. but it does rhyme" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1943703209971011873) 2025-07-11T16:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "We break down how different macro tools impact risk assets like $BTC and $SPX. Subscribe to our newsletter (it's free) https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250711_thread https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250711_thread" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1943703222260322753) 2025-07-11T16:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Fedex_trader @JustDeauIt @MilkRoadDaily @fundstrat" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1943975566941528434) 2025-07-12T10:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "As of last week Trump has threatened: - 35% tariffs on Canada - 30% tariffs on the EU - 30% tariffs on Mexico" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1944688755526578684) 2025-07-14T09:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Fedex_trader @MilkRoadDaily" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1945230708160532870) 2025-07-15T21:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@MilkRoadDaily @Fedex_trader" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1945230814578421988) 2025-07-15T21:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Trump wants Powell out. If he gets his way it could trigger a market earthquake: - The dollar may drop 3%4% - Treasuries could sink 30bps40bps It would be a full blown massacre" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1945853539391348889) 2025-07-17T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Hot take from @biancoresearch The FED is never going to be able to get inflation back down to 2%. Since [----] inflation has averaged 3.5%. And Jim thinks it'll hover around 3% moving forward. ( here are some other takes from Jim 🧵)" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1945896194250867066) 2025-07-17T17:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/ In [----] 2.9% inflation would've been a crisis. Today its treated like a green light to cut" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1945896314727960976) 2025-07-17T17:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2/ Consumers are getting rekt by tariffs The U.S. used to pull in $7B-$8B in tariffs every month. Now this figure is up to $15-$18B. That cost doesnt vanish it lands on the consumer. Through higher prices and stick inflation" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1945896444248088988) 2025-07-17T17:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ""Bet your rent money youre reckless. Bet the economy youre a hedge fund"" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1946978442601525488) 2025-07-20T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/ China A big reason behind ISM / PMI being slugish was that the China's economy was nosediving in [----] and [----]. But now we're seeing the Chinese economy stabilise. Which is a good sign for the ISM" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1947340901619294562) 2025-07-21T17:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2/ Economic sentiment in Germany is also rising As a manufacturing powerhouse Germanys recovery will play a major role in pushing ISM / PMI back above 50" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1947340919038218310) 2025-07-21T17:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The US Economy Is Re-Accelerating & Why Cutting Rates Now Would Be a Disaster w/ @DannyDayan5 Fiscal dominance is the biggest macro threat of our lifetime. What happens when the White House starts controlling the Fed Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 Intro 01:53 Market Re-Acceleration 06:14 Rates vs. Real Conditions 11:26 Fiscal Dominance & Fed 17:27 Definitive 18:00 Ledn 18:35 Powell Replacement Picks 26:15 Dollar Doom Loop 32:33 Tariffs vs. Inflation 36:29 Macro Trades & $BTC 43:06 Wrap Up" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948111570585690528) 2025-07-23T20:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DannyDayan5 🚨 Dont miss the next macro drop subscribe to the new Macro channels now: YouTube: Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0QRuoqgBXmSqtjtY0WDVrE https://www.youtube.com/@MilkRoadMacro https://open.spotify.com/show/0QRuoqgBXmSqtjtY0WDVrE https://www.youtube.com/@MilkRoadMacro" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948112027269882246) 2025-07-23T20:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The markets looking strong for risk assets like $BTC and $SPX. Here are [--] macro signals backing that up 👇 (a thread 🧵)" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948383676640993280) 2025-07-24T14:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "1/ "Short dollar" is now the most crowded trade in the world Falling $DXY = Good news for risk assets like $BTC and $SPX" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948383694298960083) 2025-07-24T14:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2/ Investor optimism is rising SentimenTraders Advisor and Investor model which tracks sentiment across major investing surveys is trending up. Its not at euphoria levels yet (0.75+) but its getting close" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948383709545275425) 2025-07-24T14:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Inflation isn't going anywhere Last week gave us a strange trial run of what markets might do if Powell was fired. Long-term yields dropped hard a classic signal of rising inflation concerns. You can see clearly this in the second chart: Inflation expectations are now at a 2-year high" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948406081010729298) 2025-07-24T15:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Trump when he visits the federal reserve" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948458194290049153) 2025-07-24T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "''Waller to me is probably the most dangerous'' - @DannyDayan5 Ex Hedge Fund Manager. Trumps short list to replace Jerome Powell is already forming. But if the next Fed Chair just follows orders Markets could break. ( some clips from the full interview )" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948496190414164295) 2025-07-24T21:31Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements "Its called the Doom Loop. Policymakers want to stimulate without paying the inflation bill. But history says that ends badly just like in 1979" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948496451236950063) 2025-07-24T21:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948674752576729385) 2025-07-25T09:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "''The gang goes to the Federal Reserve''" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948752679695777953) 2025-07-25T14:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The market is heating up. 85% of $NDX stocks are now trading above their 100-day moving average. This is the highest level since February [----]. Momentum is back" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948775336784871537) 2025-07-25T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The growth scare is over. No recession in sight. Here are [--] charts that prove it 👇 (a thread 🧵)" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948791138762326419) 2025-07-25T17:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Growth estimates nosedived in early [----]. But since April theyve come roaring back" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948791159817732409) 2025-07-25T17:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "These look like memestock charts. And I'm not mad about it. S&P 500: record high Nasdaq: record high https://t.co/QEoeG51yeS S&P 500: record high Nasdaq: record high https://t.co/QEoeG51yeS" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948849425948049563) 2025-07-25T20:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1948856183504470127) 2025-07-25T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "When the Fed prints dollars but you print $NVDA stock" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1949188280723136550) 2025-07-26T19:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Meme stocks are making a comeback. In [----] it was $GME and $AMC. In [----] its $OPEN and $KSS. Retail traders are targeting heavily shorted low priced stocks forcing sharp price spikes as short sellers scramble to cover. Short interest + viral momentum = squeeze" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1949885075950281133) 2025-07-28T17:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Trump continues to take shots at Powell. "We should be [--] points lower" "1 point of cut is equivalent to $360B in savings" "I'll miss Powell greatly"" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1950167551583109136) 2025-07-29T12:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The Fed is unlikely to cut rates this week But what does their failure to fully appreciate the impact of AI mean for markets in [----] Legendary Macro expert @TopadoDuran dives deep into the data to reveal key insights that The Fed is missing. Is AI the ultimate deflationary force Tune into our latest episode to hear him break it all down TIME POINTS 00:00 - Intro 01:33 Unpacking the Fed's Focus: Will They Cut Rates or Hold Steady 10:18 Hawkish vs. Dovish: What AI Means for Fed Policy Stance 18:04 - Definitive 18:38 - Ledn 20:12 July Skip and Rate Cuts Ahead 26:11 Impact of Trumps Immigration" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1950239850575073349) 2025-07-29T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Trump is pretty happy about this deal. But the Europeans aren't. The EU exports over $300B to the U.S. and now faces 15% tariffs on most of it. The 15% tariffs is down from the previously threatened 30%. Just in: Trump says the US has reached a major trade deal with the EU. Highlights of the agreement: 0% tariffs on key goods. $750B in US energy purchases. Increased US auto exports to Europe. 15% tariff on American made cars. https://t.co/WvUeA4mNND Just in: Trump says the US has reached a major trade deal with the EU. Highlights of the agreement: 0% tariffs on key goods. $750B in US energy" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1950587701314609240) 2025-07-30T16:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "If you're in crypto pivot to beef" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1950609853329879442) 2025-07-30T17:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "My goal this year was to make $30000 in the stock market Only $50000 to go" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1950647613327581338) 2025-07-30T20:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The US Dollar $DXY has seen [--] straight green days. It's now at its highest level in the last two months. Strong dollar = potential headwind for risk assets like $BTC and $SPX" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1950904341776433479) 2025-07-31T13:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Trumps master plan seems to be working. Tariff revenue has jumped from around $8B/month last year to $25B in July. Thats a 3x surge. At this pace annual tariff revenue could hit as high as $700B" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1950919424879534290) 2025-07-31T14:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Something new just happened at the FOMC meeting: Two Fed Governors dissented the first time thats happened since the 1990s. But heres the twist: Thats actually bullish. Historically Governor dissents have been a leading signal for future rate cuts" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1951312021594710527) 2025-08-01T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "No rate cut this week. Odds for a cut at the next meeting has also dropped. But we're not panicking here's why: Slow cutting cycles have historically been more bullish for risk assets than fast ones. Stay patient. Were still on track" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1951651717336137905) 2025-08-02T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@WhiteHouse @PressSec Bill to remove emojis from the the white house posts coming up next week" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1951659474004926951) 2025-08-02T15:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "" $BTC looks better to me than gold " @tgmacro started the summer bullish on gold. But now says $BTC is holding value better and showing stronger price action" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1951689570665607505) 2025-08-02T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@TgMacro If you want more updates on how macro impacts $BTC. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250801_tgmacro_clip_btc https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250801_tgmacro_clip_btc" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1951976602260435197) 2025-08-03T12:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Tariffs didnt break the market. @tgmacro says the real source of inflation was the Fed doubling its balance sheet during COVID not Trumps trade policy" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1952029370329305408) 2025-08-03T15:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Q3 might be the turning point for the U.S. consumer. Price hikes from new tariffs are starting to show up. The Fed may have to cut rates sooner than expected possibly starting in September" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1952112428558569586) 2025-08-03T21:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "2/ ISM is still stuck below [--]. Last Friday ISM came in at [--]. We need this figure to surpass [--] for a sign of expansion. BREAKING: ISM came in at [--] (vs. [----] expected). Still stuck below the all-holy [--] mark. BREAKING: ISM came in at [--] (vs. [----] expected). Still stuck below the all-holy [--] mark" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1952414267778781581) 2025-08-04T17:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3/ The U.S. Dollar ($DXY) just had a monster month July was one of the strongest $DXY months in a while. Strong dollar = headwind for risk assets like $BTC. U.S. Dollar $DXY sees its biggest 5-day gain since [----] 📈💵 https://t.co/SVjJq8MIGK U.S. Dollar $DXY sees its biggest 5-day gain since [----] 📈💵 https://t.co/SVjJq8MIGK" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1952414280055484850) 2025-08-04T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "We just got a bit of a shock from the U.S. labor market. Only [-----] jobs were added in July. (well below the [------] expected) To make it worse May and June numbers were revised down by nearly [------]. A weakening labor market = higher chances of a rate cut. Markets are now pricing in an 88% chance of a cut in September" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1952783676439445958) 2025-08-05T17:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact $BTC $SPX and more. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=pinned_post https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=pinned_post" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1952807321454952737) 2025-08-05T19:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "2/ Gold spiked higher In times of uncertainty markets run straight for gold" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1953130750930489655) 2025-08-06T16:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "3/ Short-term US Treasury yields plunged 2-Year Treasury saw the biggest fall in almost a year. This is a good sign because short-term treasury yields are linked to interest rates. Falling ST yields = higher chance of a rate cut" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1953130766587801798) 2025-08-06T16:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The tariff machine is back on. The U.S. has already collected $127B in tariff revenue this year ($72B more than this time last year) Why A sweeping July [--] executive order imposed new tariffs on dozens of countries with rates as high as 50% in some cases. Countries not even named in the order face a default 10% tariff. China Mexico and Canada were excluded from the order but are still getting separate tariff treatment. The tariff saga is already reshaping global trade" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1953140270792622275) 2025-08-06T17:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The labor market continues to soften. Initial Jobless Claims just came out: - Actual: 226K - Expected: 221K - Previous: 219K At this rate a September cut is looking more and more likely. We just got a bit of a shock from the U.S. labor market. Only [-----] jobs were added in July. (well below the [------] expected) To make it worse May and June numbers were revised down by nearly [------]. A weakening labor market = higher chances of a rate cut. Markets are https://t.co/NUerpFdrkf We just got a bit of a shock from the U.S. labor market. Only [-----] jobs were added in July. (well below the 110000" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1953440032146248015) 2025-08-07T12:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Everyones watching the Fed. But the real liquidity boost Its coming from somewhere else entirely. https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/treasury-qe-to-continueutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250807_thurs https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/treasury-qe-to-continueutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250807_thurs" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1953486353590858181) 2025-08-07T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Milk Road's Macro Framework: How The Big Picture Empowers Investors w/ @BitcoinJesus17 Fiat isnt backed by gold. Its backed by debt. If that doesnt scare you a little youre not paying attention. Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 - Intro 02:24 - What Is Macro & Why It Matters for Investors 04:47 - The [--] Pillars of Macro: Starting with Money 15:56 - How Debt & Policy Shape the Economy 23:51 - Nexo 24:25 - Figure Markets 25:00 - Where to Allocate Capital Right Now 32:00 - Macro Framework Recap & Key Takeaways 35:08 - Lessons from BlackRock 38:08 - Why Investor Community Matters 41:14 -" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1953534365037695376) 2025-08-07T19:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@MilkRoadDaily $SPX final boss" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1953605749231563235) 2025-08-07T23:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@kyle_chasse Gold hit highs BTC hitting highs Alts are about to melt faces And Nancy pelosi will front run everything. Even cryptos" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1953608745964974493) 2025-08-08T00:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Markets move in seasons and most people have no idea which one theyre in. Since the [----] crisis a [--] year cycle has quietly played out. Miss the timing and you end up fighting the cycle. Understand it and you start investing with rhythm" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1953916733376671906) 2025-08-08T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1954281655436517440) 2025-08-09T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1954591271559049576) 2025-08-10T17:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Were moving from country wide tariffs to company specific deals. $NVDA and $AMD will now give the US government 15% of their China revenue. In exchange for export licenses to keep selling advanced chips there. This isnt about profit its a direct cut of sales and it marks a major shift in how trade policy works. Other US chipmakers could face the same terms. For firms with heavy China exposure 15% of revenue can translate into an even larger hit to profit. Its also a geopolitical signal: Washington isnt just restricting exports anymore its monetizing them. The US is effectively charging a toll" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1954919088444309889) 2025-08-11T14:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The top [--] companies in the S&P [---] are cruisin' These are the ones driving AI innovation right now. Strip them out and the $SPX is basically flat. AI is completely reshaping investment behaviour" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1954966067782226087) 2025-08-11T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1954991465672978827) 2025-08-11T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@WhiteHouse @POTUS" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1954999702497411572) 2025-08-11T20:13Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements ""We're in a NEW bull market" "The bear market basically ended in April" Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson just gave us the green light" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1955198617184243897) 2025-08-12T09:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "CPI data drops in [--] minutes. Market expectation: 2.8% Anything higher could slash the odds of a September rate cut" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1955237874477187197) 2025-08-12T12:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "JUST IN: CPI comes in cooler than expected at 2.7%. A September rate cut is looking like a sure thing now. CPI data drops in [--] minutes. Market expectation: 2.8% Anything higher could slash the odds of a September rate cut. https://t.co/FQMLXFrpYe CPI data drops in [--] minutes. Market expectation: 2.8% Anything higher could slash the odds of a September rate cut. https://t.co/FQMLXFrpYe" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1955246048521453947) 2025-08-12T12:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1955263032390783275) 2025-08-12T13:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1955339044021473736) 2025-08-12T18:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "HUGE NEWS: The U.S. national debt surpassed a record $37T today. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) thought wed get here in [----] But we made it [--] years early. The U.S.'s credit card bill just keeps ticking higher. Thanks to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act the debt just officially passed the $37 trillion mark. https://t.co/x4iCOdL2q5 Thanks to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act the debt just officially passed the $37 trillion mark. https://t.co/x4iCOdL2q5" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1955511941562265886) 2025-08-13T06:09Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements "Alongside the surging U.S. debt M2 money supply just hit an all-time high of $22T. More dollars in the system = huge boost for risk assets like $BTC and the $SPX. HUGE NEWS: The U.S. national debt surpassed a record $37T today. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) thought wed get here in [----] But we made it [--] years early. The U.S.'s credit card bill just keeps ticking higher. HUGE NEWS: The U.S. national debt surpassed a record $37T today. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) thought wed get here in [----] But we made it [--] years early. The U.S.'s credit card bill just keeps ticking higher" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1955605012002062388) 2025-08-13T12:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Whos next for Fed Chair Christopher Waller is now the frontrunner with a 38% chance on Polymarket. Hes notably dovish even voting for a rate cut in Julys FOMC meeting" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1955675770782908428) 2025-08-13T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The labor market is weakening But not for the reasons you think. Slower job creation is being driven by a slowdown in immigration. @ramahluwalia @LumidaWealth" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1955698521581216196) 2025-08-13T18:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ramahluwalia @LumidaWealth In the full pod with Ram Ahluwalia we cover why stablecoins are a macro gamechanger the Feds next moves AIs impact on the economy and how to spot big narratives early. Full episode here: https://youtu.be/xRtgp-F4iUkfeature=shared https://youtu.be/xRtgp-F4iUkfeature=shared" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1955799269564412265) 2025-08-14T01:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Yikes. July PPI came in at 3.3% vs. 2.5% expected. Normally these reports miss by 0.10.2% but this ones a big outlier. Markets arent loving it. But the odds of a September rate cut are still high at 96.5%" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1955977444382662992) 2025-08-14T12:58Z [----] followers, 12K engagements "Tariffs are raking in serious cash. In July [----] U.S. tariff revenue jumped over 300% to a RECORD $29.6B. This is the highest monthly haul by a long shot. Trumps trade playbook seems to be working" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1956030572641574978) 2025-08-14T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Were in an unusual macro setup. Fund managers expect global inflation to rise. But interest rates to stay flat or drop. The final verdict on U.S. cuts could come Aug 22nd. Thats when Powell speaks at Jackson Hole" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1956347681523269638) 2025-08-15T13:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1956385578947399699) 2025-08-15T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "There is a 95% chance of a September rate cut. Cooling CPI has shifted the Feds focus toward a weakening labor market. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs expect a standard 25bps cut. While BlackRock and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are calling for 50bps. If the Fed delivers it would add liquidity and potentially kick off a powerful move in risk assets" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1956408062757265836) 2025-08-15T17:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "BIG WEEK AHEAD FOR MACRO Key events to watch: - Mon: TrumpZelensky meeting - Wed: Fed minutes (July meeting) - Thu: S&P PMI data - Fri: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole 10am ET" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1957416659146399843) 2025-08-18T12:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The U.S. collected $28.4B in tariff revenue in July alone. At that pace Scott Bessents $300B annual estimate looks conservative. For context: $300B+ is nearly the size of the entire corporate tax haul in 2022" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1957449974045917650) 2025-08-18T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Small businesses are flashing warning signs. Reports of poor sales just hit the highest level since [----]. Historically this has been a leading indicator of rising unemployment. Pair that with sticky inflation and the economy could be heading into rough waters" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1957819926728831400) 2025-08-19T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Gold is having a stellar [----]. Despite the so-called risk-on sentiment Gold has outperformed both $BTC and the $SPX this year. Turns out the shiny rock still shines brightest" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1958144503677919524) 2025-08-20T12:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The Fed is in a tough spot. On one side: the labor market is softening. We just saw the weakest 3-month jobs growth since the [----] pandemic. On the other side: inflation is creeping back up. Slow jobs growth + rising inflation = problem for the Fed" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1958183270228889875) 2025-08-20T15:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Jerome Powell takes the stage at Jackson Hole in [--] hours. The big question: How will he position the Fed Dovish (hinting at cuts) Hawkish (delaying cuts) He ain't gonna say shit Dovish (hinting at cuts) Hawkish (delaying cuts) He ain't gonna say shit" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1958529574826070263) 2025-08-21T14:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Forget the usual [--] year cycle. This bull market may run longer than anyone expects. The business cycle hasnt even ramped yet which is why the rally could stretch into [----]. @KyleReidhead" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1958892051233427512) 2025-08-22T14:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Powells last Jackson Hole speech didnt promise cuts but it opened the door. He said policy is restrictive risks to jobs are rising and the Fed may need to adjust stance depending on the data. Markets took the hint: September cut odds jumped from 75% 90%" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1958895572192313610) 2025-08-22T14:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Markets exploded higher as soon as Powell started speaking at Jackson Hole. Stocks surged with the Nasdaq and Dow up nearly 1.8% and the S&P [---] climbing 1.5%. At the same time bond yields collapsed with the [--] year Treasury plunging from 3.78% to 3.69% in minutes. The move was clear: Traders heard Powell leaning dovish and rushed into risk assets" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1958905085054132611) 2025-08-22T14:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bonds dont get the same hype as stocks or crypto. But they might be the single most important chart to watch. Why Because when [--] year Treasury yields climb above 4.5% theyve consistently spoiled the party for risk assets. The chart says it all: every time yields rise through that yellow line the S&P [---] stumbles. Higher yields mean tighter financial conditions resulting in less fuel for stocks crypto and everything in between. The bond market calls the shots Ignore it at your own risk" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1958967443696873869) 2025-08-22T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Non profitable stocks are on a tear. High growth tech names with negative earnings have surged 66% since April That's more than double the $SPXs 31% gain over the same period. Investors are clearly piling back into speculative growth" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1959261859523305537) 2025-08-23T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This chart is good news for risk assets. The MOVE index is hovering near multi-year lows. Low MOVE = stable yields = risk-on environment" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1959307159461937306) 2025-08-23T17:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The Fed sparked a rally last week. Jerome Powells speech at Jackson Hole opened the door to a potential rate cut in September and markets responded accordingly. Stocks surged with the S&P [---] rising nearly 2% Beyond Powells speech heres what else moved markets last week: Gold continued to outperform shining brighter than $BTC and the $SPX in [----]. Retail investors continued to pour capital into equity ETFs even as institutions pulled back. The labor market showed cracks with underemployment among young workers climbing toward recession era levels. And inflation swaps are rising indicating" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1959677118666948884) 2025-08-24T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The dollar just broke its downward trend. For the first half of the year a weakening $DXY was a tailwind for global liquidity and risk assets. Now were in a correction phase. Driven by extreme bearish positioning getting shaken out and the Treasury rebuilding its cash balance ($500B+ TGA rebuild = dollar bullish). Structurally the dollar is still in a downtrend. But in the near term this shakeout could keep pressure on liquidity until late September" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1959966246084260086) 2025-08-25T13:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Bearish futures bets against the dollar are being unwound fast. Positioning had gotten extremely negative and now the squeeze is playing out as the $DXY corrects higher. Weak dollar trades are getting flushed before the bigger downtrend can resume" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1959979118180852178) 2025-08-25T14:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Inflation is heating back up. CPI has been creeping higher for months and now PPI just printed 0.9% MoM Thats more than 10% annualized. It leaves Powell stuck: the jobs market is cooling but inflation is refusing to roll over. That exact dilemma is discussed in our latest pod w/ @ces921 https://youtu.be/q-Sucad1j3I https://youtu.be/q-Sucad1j3I" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1960001749839990825) 2025-08-25T15:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Despite the inflation worries Growing confidence in a weakening job market has led to expectations of a dovish Fed chair and rising hopes for rate cuts. Traders are currently pricing an 83% probability of a 25bps rate cut in September" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1960031957037072688) 2025-08-25T17:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Why Wall Street is About to Rush Into Crypto w/ @DigitalAssets Vice President of Research @ChrisJKuiper Bonds just had a 5-year drawdown. Fidelitys Chris Kuiper asks the question few on Wall Street dare to: Are bonds a permanently impaired asset class Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 Intro 01:59 Why $BTC Isnt Pumping 05:17 Fidelitys Crypto Gameplan 08:51 Bitcoins Role in Macro 12:06 Do Rate Cuts Even Matter 17:07 KGeN 17:42 Institutions: Still Early 21:22 Bonds Are Broken 26:02 BTC: Tailwinds vs Headwinds 29:39 Is the 4-Year Cycle Dead 32:54 Will Every Company Hold BTC 37:08 $ETH" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1960368431083004322) 2025-08-26T15:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Powell downplayed inflation hinted at cuts and risk assets loved it. Heres what that really signals. https://milkroad.com/macro/what-powell-s-jackson-hole-speech-means/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250826_tues https://milkroad.com/macro/what-powell-s-jackson-hole-speech-means/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250826_tues" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1960386778004906085) 2025-08-26T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "HUGE NEWS: The EU just proposed removing all tariffs on industrial goods to meet President Trumps demands. They aim to make it official by the end of the week. Trump gets his way. Again" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1960660598427148612) 2025-08-27T11:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Short-term headwind on the way $DXY generally has an inverse relationship with risk assets: The $DXY goes down risk assets go up 1-3 months later. But now the dollar is trending slightly higher. Not a bad picture yet but definitely less bullish than [--] weeks ago. The dollar just broke its downward trend. For the first half of the year a weakening $DXY was a tailwind for global liquidity and risk assets. Now were in a correction phase. Driven by extreme bearish positioning getting shaken out and the Treasury rebuilding its cash https://t.co/E54jcHGBt6 The dollar just broke its downward trend." [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1960756206571807007) 2025-08-27T17:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "NEW DATA: - Q2 GDP: 3.3% vs 3.0% expected - Jobless claims: 229K vs 231K expected Stronger growth + resilient labor market = good news for the U.S. economy. Despite this "hot" data Sept rate cut odds are still up at 85%" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1961061933614043275) 2025-08-28T13:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Trump isnt waiting on Powell. Hes moving to reshape the Fed right now. https://mrmacro.milkroad.com/p/trump-has-launched-an-attack-on-the-fedutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250828_thurs https://mrmacro.milkroad.com/p/trump-has-launched-an-attack-on-the-fedutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250828_thurs" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1961103991963836538) 2025-08-28T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1961202513111388431) 2025-08-28T23:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "BREAKING: July PCE inflation landed right in line with expectations. Since this is the Feds preferred inflation gauge The path looks clear for a September rate cut" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1961413203512148001) 2025-08-29T12:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The latest ISM came in at [--] still in contraction (below 50). Sounds bearish but history says otherwise: When PMI prints [--] or lower the S&P [---] has historically gained 20%+ over the next year. Are your bags ready The ISM is throwing a tantrum. Since [----] its mostly followed a predictable [--] year cycle. But since mid-2023 its broken pattern and lost direction. This makes it much harder to pin down exactly where we are in the business cycle. https://t.co/yWTTaCsGpM The ISM is throwing a tantrum. Since [----] its mostly followed a predictable [--] year cycle. But since mid-2023 its broken pattern" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1961429152265113909) 2025-08-29T14:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This hasnt happened in [---] years. Trump announced he was firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook effective immediately. But heres the twist: shes not actually out. Polymarket odds suggest shes unlikely to leave before Dec 31st" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1961473992524812477) 2025-08-29T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Expect volatility. But also expect higher prices before the end of the year. @scottmelker" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1961504238133284879) 2025-08-29T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@scottmelker Thats just one part of Scotts outlook. In the full interview he covers how liquidity cycles Fed policy and politics could set the stage for the next $BTC run. https://youtu.be/M1ZGdZvCrtAfeature=shared https://youtu.be/M1ZGdZvCrtAfeature=shared" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1961527605057978704) 2025-08-29T20:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1962168787161252124) 2025-08-31T15:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1962198745094959612) 2025-08-31T17:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$SPX +400% vs. $BTC +2743020566% Last [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1962206260558000360) 2025-08-31T17:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The next FOMC meeting is just [--] days away. Markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut. The rate-cutting cycle is starting soon" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1962930280261669309) 2025-09-02T17:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Weve seen a strong rebound since April. After recession fears flared during the Trump-tariff saga The U.S. economy is now showing no signs of slowing down" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1963232018055233700) 2025-09-03T13:26Z [----] followers, 10.7K engagements "Despite the S&P [---] going wild. Its being driven by the GAMMA stocks: $GOOGL $AAPL $AMZN $META & $MSFT. - Index with GAMMA: 11% avg return - Index without GAMMA: 6% avg return And most of the 6% gains comes from $NVDA. 5-7 stocks are doing all the heavy lifting. U.S. stock valuations just hit a new ATH. It even surpassed the Dot Com bubble of [----]. The question now: how much higher can they really go https://t.co/pQRl7FtGKs U.S. stock valuations just hit a new ATH. It even surpassed the Dot Com bubble of [----]. The question now: how much higher can they really go https://t.co/pQRl7FtGKs" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1963264981560119777) 2025-09-03T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Gold is sitting around $3400. Goldman Sachs says it could climb to $5000 if Trump undermines the Fed. Despite already doubling over the last [--] years Theyre calling for another massive surge. That would mark one of golds strongest runs in modern history. Gold has had a very strong 10-day run. Up more than 6%. As the ultimate safe-haven asset. Could this be signaling that something big is on the horizon https://t.co/6sY9IBuEsp Gold has had a very strong 10-day run. Up more than 6%. As the ultimate safe-haven asset. Could this be signaling that something big is on the horizon" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1963582496920277232) 2025-09-04T12:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The labour market is cracking. - Jobless claims: 237K vs. 230K expected - Job openings: 7.18M vs. 7.38M expected Translation: Weakness across the board. But heres why markets love it: Weaker labour market higher odds of rate cuts. After the weak jobs data The odds of a September rate cut have jumped to 97.4%. Jerome Powell might as well pack scissors for the meeting" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1963588879241679206) 2025-09-04T13:04Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements "Why Government Debt Is Breaking the Global Economy w/ @qthomp The U.S. is spending like its still [----]. But nobody wants their bonds anymore. Quinn explains what happens when the biggest borrower in the world runs out of buyers. Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 Intro 01:37 Bond Yields Are Exploding 05:16 Can Long-Dated Bonds Be Saved 08:58 Whats a Bond Vigilante 12:47 Yields After Rate Cuts 16:36 KGeN 17:11 How the Fed Sets Policy (and Trumps Plan) 22:55 Capital Flows: Gold $BTC & Risk Assets 29:11 Will Bitcoin Follow Golds Breakout 31:33 Bitcoin Outlook for Q4 35:57 Delayed Cycle or" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1963622495157690406) 2025-09-04T15:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Seasonality charts pop up every September warning of the worst month. But they dont tell you why. Vacation resets tax withdrawals light liquidity and psychology all play a role. The takeaway: Seasonality is more about flows and behavior than the calendar itself. Understanding those drivers matters far more than fearing the month. We breakdown those drivers here: https://mrmacro.milkroad.com/p/will-we-see-a-spooky-septemberutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250904_thurs" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1963633208794517655) 2025-09-04T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Labour market crisis incoming The US has more unemployed people than job openings for the first since April [----]. This is yet another crack in the labour market. The labour market is cracking. - Jobless claims: 237K vs. 230K expected - Job openings: 7.18M vs. 7.38M expected Translation: Weakness across the board. But heres why markets love it: Weaker labour market higher odds of rate cuts. After the weak jobs data The odds of https://t.co/Aa2paEwFKQ The labour market is cracking. - Jobless claims: 237K vs. 230K expected - Job openings: 7.18M vs. 7.38M expected Translation: Weakness across the" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1963646497209422018) 2025-09-04T16:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1963751519163158849) 2025-09-04T23:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1963931115875615084) 2025-09-05T11:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Despite the recent rally in major U.S. stock indices Tariff fears continue to linger. Goldman Sachs sentiment indicator backs that up sitting at [----]. "Extreme greed" doesnt kick in until its above [--]. Investors are approaching this rally with caution. U.S. stock valuations just hit a new ATH. It even surpassed the Dot Com bubble of [----]. The question now: how much higher can they really go https://t.co/pQRl7FtGKs U.S. stock valuations just hit a new ATH. It even surpassed the Dot Com bubble of [----]. The question now: how much higher can they really go https://t.co/pQRl7FtGKs" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1964342872192466981) 2025-09-06T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1964413626129011125) 2025-09-06T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Heres another positive signal for economic growth: Atlanta Feds GDPNow is pointing to a resilient outlook for Q3. Growth is looking much stronger than expected. Weve seen a strong rebound since April. After recession fears flared during the Trump-tariff saga The U.S. economy is now showing no signs of slowing down. https://t.co/UCHSzhCUyn Weve seen a strong rebound since April. After recession fears flared during the Trump-tariff saga The U.S. economy is now showing no signs of slowing down. https://t.co/UCHSzhCUyn" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1964697690203378130) 2025-09-07T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1965040085298266139) 2025-09-08T13:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Despite the S&P [---] hitting fresh highs Hedge funds are shorting the $SPX at a record pace. Short exposure hit an ATH at $180B. Hedge funds are bracing for a pullback. U.S. stock valuations just hit a new ATH. It even surpassed the Dot Com bubble of [----]. The question now: how much higher can they really go https://t.co/pQRl7FtGKs U.S. stock valuations just hit a new ATH. It even surpassed the Dot Com bubble of [----]. The question now: how much higher can they really go https://t.co/pQRl7FtGKs" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1965073653097455781) 2025-09-08T15:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "HUGE NEWS: US job growth was revised down by [------] the largest downward revision in history. The economy looks shakier than many realized. This all but locks in a September rate cut And Polymarket even shows a 14% chance of a 50bps cut" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1965435371036291332) 2025-09-09T15:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Markets now see a Fed cut as certain with odds of 50bps climbing. Weak jobs vs resilient growth puts the Fed in a bind but if theres no recession history says cuts are bullish for risk assets. So whats the Fed really about to do https://mrmacro.milkroad.com/p/50bps-fed-rate-cut-in-septemberutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250909_tues https://mrmacro.milkroad.com/p/50bps-fed-rate-cut-in-septemberutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250909_tues" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1965452650507567229) 2025-09-09T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Truflation is currently sitting at 2%. The Fed still sees inflation as above target But thats not the main problem anymore. The Fed is putting all their focus on the labour market" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1965473035127062910) 2025-09-09T17:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Its starting to feel a lot like last year. In [----] jobs data softened in July/August And the Fed responded with a jumbo 50bps cut that September. Fast forward to today: Markets are pricing an 8.3% chance of another 50bps cut this September" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1965837732015730809) 2025-09-10T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1965870478901563518) 2025-09-10T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Now that a 25bps cut is basically locked in Lets look ahead to year-end: Theres a 73.3% chance of three more cuts in [----]. [--] FOMC meetings left. [--] possible cuts. 50bps rate cut incoming Markets are now pricing a 100% chance of a September cut: - 89% odds of 25bps - 11% odds of 50bps A 50bps cut would be massive for $BTC and $SPX. https://t.co/kyTAq0WtYS 50bps rate cut incoming Markets are now pricing a 100% chance of a September cut: - 89% odds of 25bps - 11% odds of 50bps A 50bps cut would be massive for $BTC and $SPX. https://t.co/kyTAq0WtYS" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1966547391202709949) 2025-09-12T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Most of the recent US job growth is coming from just one place: Private education & healthcare. Over the past [--] months this single sector has accounted for the bulk of all new jobs. That concentration is concerning" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1966902205753249952) 2025-09-13T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug" [X Link](https://x.com/MilkRoadMacro/status/1966965949514527150) 2025-09-13T20:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@Impact3Agency Impact3
Impact3 posts on X about milk, stocks, inflation, bitcoin the most. They currently have [---------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-------] #
- [--] Week [---------] +51%
- [--] Month [---------] +395%
- [--] Months [----------] +2,615%
- [--] Year [----------] +25,329,224%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] -69%
- [--] Month [---] +17%
- [--] Months [---] +381%
- [--] Year [---] +41,500%
Followers: [---------] #
- [--] Week [-----] +2.60%
- [--] Month [-----] +19%
- [--] Months [-----] +255%
- [--] Year [-----] +3,842%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance #3671 cryptocurrencies countries stocks technology brands currencies exchanges #3860 social networks automotive brands celebrities
Social topic influence milk #362, stocks, inflation #152, bitcoin #6273, $btc #1160, tariffs, liquidity, fed, gold, debt
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @kalshi @kobeissiletter @cryptorover @milkroad @polymarket @m3melody @ashcrypto @whitehouse @unusualwhales @deitaone @web3academy @barchart @investingcom @milkroaddaily @kylereidhead @bulltheoryio @coinbureau @coinvo @bitteljulien @peterschiff
Top assets mentioned Bitcoin (BTC) SPX6900 (SPX) Ethereum (ETH) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"@web3academy_ @KyleReidhead @Permissionless Great piece once again friends 👏"
X Link 2023-09-18T13:18Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@web3academy_ @CantoPublic @EclipseFND @optimismFND Just wow"
X Link 2023-09-20T13:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@web3academy_ @BuildOnBase @arbitrum @optimismFND @Uniswap Another banging infographic Love it 👏"
X Link 2023-10-12T13:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@web3academy_ @RTFKT @MercedesBenzNXT @Courtyard_NFT @solana More espresso less depresso 💜 GM"
X Link 2023-10-30T10:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@web3academy_ @hashflow @Aptos_Network @avax Informative as always Cheers for this"
X Link 2023-11-02T10:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@web3academy_ @chainlink GM"
X Link 2023-11-29T10:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@web3academy_ The future is scary"
X Link 2024-01-05T14:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@KyleReidhead @MilkRoadDaily @eigenlayer"
X Link 2024-04-09T18:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@KyleReidhead @jkey_eth @Safaryclub @Permissionless LFG 🫡"
X Link 2024-10-09T19:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Is the trade war back Trump is imposing 50% tariffs on the EU Starting June 1st"
X Link 2025-05-23T12:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"In case you missed it - We decipher the murky world of Fed Liquidity - The Big Beautiful Bill passed the House - Jamie Dimon warns of US stagflation risk Dive in here https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/what-is-federal-reserve-stealth-qe https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/what-is-federal-reserve-stealth-qe"
X Link 2025-05-24T21:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"What to look out for this week Tuesday - Consumer Confidence data - read on how optimistic (or anxious) consumers are feeling about the economy. Wednesday - Fed meeting minutes - a peek behind the curtain at what the Fed was really thinking last time they met. Thursday - US Q1 [----] GDP data - official numbers for how the US economy started the year. Friday - April PCE Inflation data - assessing how much prices are rising"
X Link 2025-05-26T20:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TomasOnMarkets Funny how yields keep triggering policy responses. yet we still treat each one like a surprise"
X Link 2025-05-27T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The #1 reason stocks soared in 2020/21 The Fed went on a monster money printing spree after COVID hit They started buying bonds like crazy and added them onto their balance sheet. Translation There a was a huge liquidity injection in the market"
X Link 2025-05-27T20:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Rising long term Treasury yields = higher mortgage rates and borrowing costs Possibly slowing the US economy The US is already paying about $1 trillion annually in debt interest Which will increase with higher yields"
X Link 2025-05-28T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TradingThomas3 Why cant we just ignore it and carry on until a final decision is made"
X Link 2025-05-29T19:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Nvidia has officially taken the top spot as the worlds most valuable company reaching a $3.44 trillion valuation and surpassing Microsoft. $NVDA $MSFT"
X Link 2025-06-03T21:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Both CPI and core CPI just came in below expectations (again) That makes it four straight months that inflation has come in below expectations. Looks like the tariffs are not hurting inflation numbers. yet. (Scroll to see what's next for markets 👇)"
X Link 2025-06-12T14:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Israel and Iran are officially at war. Missiles are flying all over the Middle East. But what does this mean for financial assets (a thread 🧵) https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/how-will-the-middle-east-conflict-affect-marketsutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=17june_thread1 https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/how-will-the-middle-east-conflict-affect-marketsutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=17june_thread1"
X Link 2025-06-17T18:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"REMINDER: The FOMC will make their decision on rate cuts at 2:00PM ET today. Even though many are calling the FED to lower rates. There's currently a 99.9% chance of no rate cut. The next rate cut is expected to happen in September"
X Link 2025-06-18T11:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Markets dipped on fear last week but it didnt last long The VIX barely moved during the Middle East headlines Both stocks and $BTC have already fully recovered History shows geopolitical shocks are usually short-lived dips not lasting downturns"
X Link 2025-06-18T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Markets arent buying the fear If the Iran-Israel conflict were truly a threat to the global economy. Credit spreads would be blowing out Instead theyre steady and still well below the spike we saw after Liberation Day"
X Link 2025-06-18T17:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BREAKING: No rate cut The FOMC leaves rates unchanged for the 4th straight meeting. Just like we said earlier All eyes are now on September for that first potential cut of [----]. REMINDER: The FOMC will make their decision on rate cuts at 2:00PM ET today. Even though many are calling the FED to lower rates. There's currently a 99.9% chance of no rate cut. The next rate cut is expected to happen in September. https://t.co/Vosecb0prH REMINDER: The FOMC will make their decision on rate cuts at 2:00PM ET today. Even though many are calling the FED to lower rates. There's currently a 99.9% chance"
X Link 2025-06-18T18:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Why All Roads Lead to Currency Debasement w/ @davidbrickell80 The Fed isnt trying to control inflation. Theyre managing a slow-motion debt crisis. Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 Intro 01:22 Do Geopolitical Tensions Impact Markets 03:14 Is the Dip In By Now 06:04 Current Macro Landscape Explained 09:19 Short-Term Macro Outlook 15:28 Ledn 16:04 Definitive 16:36 How Liquidity Moves Markets Beyond Rates 22:36 Trumps Economic Plan & Bessents Thesis 26:45 Dollar Strength vs. Global Liquidity 31:36 Is the Dollar Heading Lower 34:21 What Will the Fed Do Next 38:46 Is the Crypto Cycle Changing"
X Link 2025-06-18T18:54Z [----] followers, 28.4K engagements
"Hot take: The Israel-Iran war is not a big deal. Here are [--] charts that explain why. (a thread 🧵)"
X Link 2025-06-19T13:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The VIX barely moved. For the uninitiated heres the quick rundown: - High VIX = lots of fear in the market On the news of the Middle East conflict the VIX saw a very small spike. This was miles away from the post Liberation Day highs we saw just a few weeks ago"
X Link 2025-06-19T13:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Just like the VIX. High credit spreads = more fear in the market. And once again they barely moved. If this conflict posed a serious threat to the global economy wed expect credit spreads to be a lot higher"
X Link 2025-06-19T13:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Feds projecting two cuts in [----] But dont expect the first one before September https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/when-will-the-fed-finally-cut-ratesutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=19june_thurs https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/when-will-the-fed-finally-cut-ratesutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=19june_thurs"
X Link 2025-06-19T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tariffs could decide the fate of rate cuts With full tariffs inflation stays stuck above 3% through [----] A partial tariff scenario sees inflation easing but still hovering above 2.5% Only the no-tariff path gets inflation below 2.2% (right where the Fed wants it)"
X Link 2025-06-19T21:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The labor market is starting to crack Continuing jobless claims have been rising steadily since mid-March now hitting the highest level in over a year Thats not what a strong economy looks like If this trend keeps up rate cut debates might shift from when to how fast"
X Link 2025-06-19T21:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@APompliano Bitcoin is [--] years old"
X Link 2025-06-19T22:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"By now we all know there was no rate cut. But how did assets ( $SPX & $BTC) react to this news Let's check it out. (a thread 🧵) BREAKING: No rate cut The FOMC leaves rates unchanged for the 4th straight meeting. Just like we said earlier All eyes are now on September for that first potential cut of [----]. BREAKING: No rate cut The FOMC leaves rates unchanged for the 4th straight meeting. Just like we said earlier All eyes are now on September for that first potential cut of 2025"
X Link 2025-06-20T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A civil war is brewing inside the Fed According to the dot plot: [--] members expect 2+ rate cuts this year (likely worried about slowing growth) [--] members expect zero cuts in [----] (still focused on inflation risks) But keep in mind that Powells term as Fed Chair ends in May [----] & Trump wants lower rates So if I was an FOMC member jostling for the big job I would probably be leaning dovish and calling for rate cuts"
X Link 2025-06-21T14:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter So are tarrifs still a thing"
X Link 2025-06-22T19:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Here's everything that's happened in the last [--] hours: - The U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear sites - Russia claimed countries are ready to supply Iran with nukes - Irans parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz"
X Link 2025-06-23T13:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Heres the TL;DR from Powells latest speech: - No sign of a rate cut coming anytime soon - Inflation is still somewhat elevated - Tariffs could push inflation even higher Key macro events this week 👇 https://t.co/vMXNIjtCLc Key macro events this week 👇 https://t.co/vMXNIjtCLc"
X Link 2025-06-24T12:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Treasury General Account (TGA) is bleeding and thats no accident Over $400 billion has been drained from the government's cash pile in recent months. Why Because the debt ceiling capped how much new debt could be issued But that ceiling is about to lift And when it does expect a flood of new Treasuries to hit the market as the government scrambles to refill its TGA Likely to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars This has happened before. During the last two TGA rebuilds 10-year yields surged by 180bps and 150bps The system is quietly being prepped to absorb the next wave of"
X Link 2025-06-24T19:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Fed might be teeing up banks to quietly absorb more U.S. debt So whats actually happening Wells Fargo could add $1.15T to its balance sheet if SLR rules are relaxed Thats not QE but it could have a similar effect Heres why it matters. The Supplementary Leverage Ratio ( SLR ) was meant to keep banks safe after [----] but now it penalizes them for holding "safe" assets like Treasuries With the U.S. running wartime sized deficits and foreign buyers pulling back Treasury liquidity is thinning Even Jerome Powell admitted he's somewhat concerned The fix Adjusting the SLR could free up trillions"
X Link 2025-06-24T21:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Globalflows Janitor in my high school"
X Link 2025-06-24T21:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The Government has recently spent more than $400bn from its savings (also called the TGA) This is due to the dynamics around the US Governments debt ceiling. But once the debt ceiling issue is fixed the Government will be flooding the market with bucketloads of new debt to refill the TGA. Here's why this could be bad news for risk assets like the $SPY (keep scrolling)"
X Link 2025-06-25T19:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Every time we've had a TGA rebuild we've seen a rise in treasury yields. But is rising treasury yields a good or bad thing (keep scrolling for the answer)"
X Link 2025-06-25T19:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Rising treasury yields is NOT good news for the $SPY 10-year yields rising above 4.5% = weakness in US stocks TL;DR: An increase in the debt ceiling could trigger a pullback in the $SPY"
X Link 2025-06-25T19:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"PCE Inflation data for May is in: Headline 2.3% YoY vs. 2.3% expected (2.1% previous) Core 2.7% YoY vs. 2.6% expected (2.5% previous) We're quietly creeping back up again Key macro events this week 👇 https://t.co/vMXNIjtCLc Key macro events this week 👇 https://t.co/vMXNIjtCLc"
X Link 2025-06-27T12:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The market is now pricing in [--] rate cuts by EOY. One in September another in October and a final cut in December. If this actually plays out this would be HUGE"
X Link 2025-06-27T17:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Don't know us yet Okay this is what we do We cover market moving trends central bank strategies and global shifts that matter every Tuesday & Thursday by @MilkRoadDaily & @TomasOnMarkets Helping you navigate the world of macro investing. Free https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250628_signup https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250628_signup"
X Link 2025-06-28T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Key macro events in July 2025: 1/ ISM Data Jul [--] We're waiting for this figure to break out above [--]. 2/ CPI Data Jul [--] If CPI continues to come in lower than expected we can expect more rate cuts in the future. 3/ FOMC meeting Jul [--] No rate cut expected but heres what the markets currently pricing in for the months ahead 👇 The market is now pricing in [--] rate cuts by EOY. One in September another in October and a final cut in December. If this actually plays out this would be HUGE. https://t.co/aJkhXjjAPs The market is now pricing in [--] rate cuts by EOY. One in September another in October"
X Link 2025-06-30T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"On todays Milk Road Macro Shes a leading voice at the intersection of crypto and macro The author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter Former Head of Research at CoinDesk and Genesis Trading Shes spent years breaking down where crypto and macro collide helping investors make sense of market cycles liquidity trends and whats really moving prices. Its none other than Noelle Acheson - @NoelleInMadrid 🕛 12PM ET Live on X"
X Link 2025-07-02T12:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Nomura has a track record of nailing their market calls. Every time theyve made a prediction stocks have seen strong returns over the next [--] months. And last week They projected $114B in equity buying over the next month. This is their LARGEST prediction yet. $SPY and $QQQ are getting ready for lift-off Wall Streets about to get soaked with cash. There's something called a 'volatility control fund' that adjusts its exposure to risk assets based on market volatility. - If volatility target they reduce exposure - If volatility target they increase exposure So when https://t.co/qMqsG2ll1h Wall"
X Link 2025-07-02T19:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We did NOT see this coming. We asked the Milk Road Macro audience if the Fed should start cutting rates 👇 We were expecting a flood of YES PLEASE. But instead we got a surprisingly level-headed response: "The FED should hold steady and watch the data closely" Seems like our audience is quite the mature bunch"
X Link 2025-07-02T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA IS IN: Actual: [------] Expected: [------] Previous: [------] Jobless claims are trending downwards"
X Link 2025-07-03T12:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA IS IN: Actual: [------] Expected: [------] Previous: [------] Stronger jobs report = less reason for FED to cut rates"
X Link 2025-07-03T12:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The labor market just came in way hotter than expected: - The U.S. added 147K jobs in June (vs. 111K expected) - Unemployment dropped to 4.1% (vs. 4.3% forecast) As a result the odds of getting [--] rate cuts this year just took a hit. It fell from 48% to 30% in a week. Strong jobs = weaker case for cuts. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA IS IN: Actual: [------] Expected: [------] Previous: [------] Stronger jobs report = less reason for FED to cut rates INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA IS IN: Actual: [------] Expected: [------] Previous: [------] Stronger jobs report = less reason for FED to cut rates"
X Link 2025-07-03T13:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"One of our readers just shared their thoughts on our latest analysis: They came in feeling cautious about the short-term market outlook but walked away with a clearer view of both near-term risks and long-term opportunities. We love hearing how our work helps you navigate the markets with more confidence"
X Link 2025-07-03T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The US govt debt is set to increase by more than $4T (thanks to Trumps One Big Beautiful Bill) Sure rising debt isnt sustainable. But it's generally bullish in the medium-term. Just look at $NDAQ and its recent V-shaped rally 👇"
X Link 2025-07-03T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The new Senate bill could push U.S. deficits to 7.1% A level historically seen only during crises' Adding over $1 trillion in debt compared to the House version Thats far above the 6.1% projected under current law And this assumes no recession hits Which could make things even worse"
X Link 2025-07-04T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"US national debt to top $38 trillion next year @Polymarket says it has a 92% chance of happening"
X Link 2025-07-04T19:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"President Trumps latest move 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea starting August The big question does this actually move the needle for US manufacturing or just add another headache for global supply chains"
X Link 2025-07-08T09:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Heres a quick recap on the tariff saga: - April 2: Trump announces reciprocal tariffs on "Liberation Day" - April 9: Installed a "90 day pause" on the reciprocal tariffs This [--] day pause was scheduled to expire on July [--] (today). But its now been extended to August [--]. The tariff picture is still murky. But we don't expect negative impacts on the market as intense as early April"
X Link 2025-07-09T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"JUST IN: Trump announces brand new tariffs on these countries 👇 20% on the Philippines 25% on Brunei 25% on Moldova 25% on Japan 25% on South Korea 25% on Malaysia 25% on Tunisia 25% on Kazakhstan 30% on Algeria 30% on Iraq 30% on Libya 30% on Bosnia and Herzegovina 30% on South Africa 32% on Indonesia 35% on Bangladesh 35% on Serbia 36% on Thailand 36% on Cambodia 40% on Myanmar 40% on Laos"
X Link 2025-07-09T16:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Tariffs are back in the headlines. In April Trump announced sweeping tariffs on [--] countries. The markets sold off hard. Since then we've seen a 90-day pause a flurry of trade talks and now a fresh round of tariffs. Here's what's really going on and what it means for economy. ( a thread )"
X Link 2025-07-10T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Below are the top [--] sources of US imports Out of these countries Trump has only struck a trade with China and Vietnam"
X Link 2025-07-10T15:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"What happens when cash stops flowing Click here to find out https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/a-short-liquidity-crunch-is-aheadutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250710_thurs https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/a-short-liquidity-crunch-is-aheadutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250710_thurs"
X Link 2025-07-10T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Do not look past this - pay attention Over the last [--] months the U.S. quietly injected $500B into the markets. without printing a single dime. This injection came from a huge pile of cash called the Treasury General Account (TGA) Draining the TGA = liquidity boost = good for risk assets But heres the catch: The account is now nearly empty. And refilling it could suck liquidity out of the markets next. Let us explain ( a thread )"
X Link 2025-07-11T16:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"When the debt ceiling was hit the government couldnt borrow. So it tapped into the TGA (its savings account) But now thanks to Trumps latest bill raising the ceiling by $5T borrowing is back. That means a wave of new debt is coming to refill the TGA. Refilling the TGA = liquidity drain = bad for risk assets ( keep scrolling to see how this affects $SPX and $BTC )"
X Link 2025-07-11T16:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Looking at the last two times the TGA was rebuilt (in red). we saw flat or negative price action in both $SPX and $BTC History doesnt repeat. but it does rhyme"
X Link 2025-07-11T16:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"We break down how different macro tools impact risk assets like $BTC and $SPX. Subscribe to our newsletter (it's free) https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250711_thread https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250711_thread"
X Link 2025-07-11T16:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Fedex_trader @JustDeauIt @MilkRoadDaily @fundstrat"
X Link 2025-07-12T10:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"As of last week Trump has threatened: - 35% tariffs on Canada - 30% tariffs on the EU - 30% tariffs on Mexico"
X Link 2025-07-14T09:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Fedex_trader @MilkRoadDaily"
X Link 2025-07-15T21:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@MilkRoadDaily @Fedex_trader"
X Link 2025-07-15T21:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Trump wants Powell out. If he gets his way it could trigger a market earthquake: - The dollar may drop 3%4% - Treasuries could sink 30bps40bps It would be a full blown massacre"
X Link 2025-07-17T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Hot take from @biancoresearch The FED is never going to be able to get inflation back down to 2%. Since [----] inflation has averaged 3.5%. And Jim thinks it'll hover around 3% moving forward. ( here are some other takes from Jim 🧵)"
X Link 2025-07-17T17:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/ In [----] 2.9% inflation would've been a crisis. Today its treated like a green light to cut"
X Link 2025-07-17T17:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ Consumers are getting rekt by tariffs The U.S. used to pull in $7B-$8B in tariffs every month. Now this figure is up to $15-$18B. That cost doesnt vanish it lands on the consumer. Through higher prices and stick inflation"
X Link 2025-07-17T17:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""Bet your rent money youre reckless. Bet the economy youre a hedge fund""
X Link 2025-07-20T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/ China A big reason behind ISM / PMI being slugish was that the China's economy was nosediving in [----] and [----]. But now we're seeing the Chinese economy stabilise. Which is a good sign for the ISM"
X Link 2025-07-21T17:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ Economic sentiment in Germany is also rising As a manufacturing powerhouse Germanys recovery will play a major role in pushing ISM / PMI back above 50"
X Link 2025-07-21T17:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The US Economy Is Re-Accelerating & Why Cutting Rates Now Would Be a Disaster w/ @DannyDayan5 Fiscal dominance is the biggest macro threat of our lifetime. What happens when the White House starts controlling the Fed Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 Intro 01:53 Market Re-Acceleration 06:14 Rates vs. Real Conditions 11:26 Fiscal Dominance & Fed 17:27 Definitive 18:00 Ledn 18:35 Powell Replacement Picks 26:15 Dollar Doom Loop 32:33 Tariffs vs. Inflation 36:29 Macro Trades & $BTC 43:06 Wrap Up"
X Link 2025-07-23T20:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DannyDayan5 🚨 Dont miss the next macro drop subscribe to the new Macro channels now: YouTube: Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0QRuoqgBXmSqtjtY0WDVrE https://www.youtube.com/@MilkRoadMacro https://open.spotify.com/show/0QRuoqgBXmSqtjtY0WDVrE https://www.youtube.com/@MilkRoadMacro"
X Link 2025-07-23T20:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The markets looking strong for risk assets like $BTC and $SPX. Here are [--] macro signals backing that up 👇 (a thread 🧵)"
X Link 2025-07-24T14:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"1/ "Short dollar" is now the most crowded trade in the world Falling $DXY = Good news for risk assets like $BTC and $SPX"
X Link 2025-07-24T14:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ Investor optimism is rising SentimenTraders Advisor and Investor model which tracks sentiment across major investing surveys is trending up. Its not at euphoria levels yet (0.75+) but its getting close"
X Link 2025-07-24T14:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Inflation isn't going anywhere Last week gave us a strange trial run of what markets might do if Powell was fired. Long-term yields dropped hard a classic signal of rising inflation concerns. You can see clearly this in the second chart: Inflation expectations are now at a 2-year high"
X Link 2025-07-24T15:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Trump when he visits the federal reserve"
X Link 2025-07-24T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"''Waller to me is probably the most dangerous'' - @DannyDayan5 Ex Hedge Fund Manager. Trumps short list to replace Jerome Powell is already forming. But if the next Fed Chair just follows orders Markets could break. ( some clips from the full interview )"
X Link 2025-07-24T21:31Z [----] followers, 12.4K engagements
"Its called the Doom Loop. Policymakers want to stimulate without paying the inflation bill. But history says that ends badly just like in 1979"
X Link 2025-07-24T21:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-07-25T09:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"''The gang goes to the Federal Reserve''"
X Link 2025-07-25T14:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The market is heating up. 85% of $NDX stocks are now trading above their 100-day moving average. This is the highest level since February [----]. Momentum is back"
X Link 2025-07-25T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The growth scare is over. No recession in sight. Here are [--] charts that prove it 👇 (a thread 🧵)"
X Link 2025-07-25T17:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Growth estimates nosedived in early [----]. But since April theyve come roaring back"
X Link 2025-07-25T17:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"These look like memestock charts. And I'm not mad about it. S&P 500: record high Nasdaq: record high https://t.co/QEoeG51yeS S&P 500: record high Nasdaq: record high https://t.co/QEoeG51yeS"
X Link 2025-07-25T20:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-07-25T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"When the Fed prints dollars but you print $NVDA stock"
X Link 2025-07-26T19:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Meme stocks are making a comeback. In [----] it was $GME and $AMC. In [----] its $OPEN and $KSS. Retail traders are targeting heavily shorted low priced stocks forcing sharp price spikes as short sellers scramble to cover. Short interest + viral momentum = squeeze"
X Link 2025-07-28T17:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Trump continues to take shots at Powell. "We should be [--] points lower" "1 point of cut is equivalent to $360B in savings" "I'll miss Powell greatly""
X Link 2025-07-29T12:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Fed is unlikely to cut rates this week But what does their failure to fully appreciate the impact of AI mean for markets in [----] Legendary Macro expert @TopadoDuran dives deep into the data to reveal key insights that The Fed is missing. Is AI the ultimate deflationary force Tune into our latest episode to hear him break it all down TIME POINTS 00:00 - Intro 01:33 Unpacking the Fed's Focus: Will They Cut Rates or Hold Steady 10:18 Hawkish vs. Dovish: What AI Means for Fed Policy Stance 18:04 - Definitive 18:38 - Ledn 20:12 July Skip and Rate Cuts Ahead 26:11 Impact of Trumps Immigration"
X Link 2025-07-29T16:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Trump is pretty happy about this deal. But the Europeans aren't. The EU exports over $300B to the U.S. and now faces 15% tariffs on most of it. The 15% tariffs is down from the previously threatened 30%. Just in: Trump says the US has reached a major trade deal with the EU. Highlights of the agreement: 0% tariffs on key goods. $750B in US energy purchases. Increased US auto exports to Europe. 15% tariff on American made cars. https://t.co/WvUeA4mNND Just in: Trump says the US has reached a major trade deal with the EU. Highlights of the agreement: 0% tariffs on key goods. $750B in US energy"
X Link 2025-07-30T16:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"If you're in crypto pivot to beef"
X Link 2025-07-30T17:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"My goal this year was to make $30000 in the stock market Only $50000 to go"
X Link 2025-07-30T20:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The US Dollar $DXY has seen [--] straight green days. It's now at its highest level in the last two months. Strong dollar = potential headwind for risk assets like $BTC and $SPX"
X Link 2025-07-31T13:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Trumps master plan seems to be working. Tariff revenue has jumped from around $8B/month last year to $25B in July. Thats a 3x surge. At this pace annual tariff revenue could hit as high as $700B"
X Link 2025-07-31T14:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Something new just happened at the FOMC meeting: Two Fed Governors dissented the first time thats happened since the 1990s. But heres the twist: Thats actually bullish. Historically Governor dissents have been a leading signal for future rate cuts"
X Link 2025-08-01T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"No rate cut this week. Odds for a cut at the next meeting has also dropped. But we're not panicking here's why: Slow cutting cycles have historically been more bullish for risk assets than fast ones. Stay patient. Were still on track"
X Link 2025-08-02T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@WhiteHouse @PressSec Bill to remove emojis from the the white house posts coming up next week"
X Link 2025-08-02T15:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"" $BTC looks better to me than gold " @tgmacro started the summer bullish on gold. But now says $BTC is holding value better and showing stronger price action"
X Link 2025-08-02T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TgMacro If you want more updates on how macro impacts $BTC. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250801_tgmacro_clip_btc https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250801_tgmacro_clip_btc"
X Link 2025-08-03T12:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Tariffs didnt break the market. @tgmacro says the real source of inflation was the Fed doubling its balance sheet during COVID not Trumps trade policy"
X Link 2025-08-03T15:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Q3 might be the turning point for the U.S. consumer. Price hikes from new tariffs are starting to show up. The Fed may have to cut rates sooner than expected possibly starting in September"
X Link 2025-08-03T21:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2/ ISM is still stuck below [--]. Last Friday ISM came in at [--]. We need this figure to surpass [--] for a sign of expansion. BREAKING: ISM came in at [--] (vs. [----] expected). Still stuck below the all-holy [--] mark. BREAKING: ISM came in at [--] (vs. [----] expected). Still stuck below the all-holy [--] mark"
X Link 2025-08-04T17:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ The U.S. Dollar ($DXY) just had a monster month July was one of the strongest $DXY months in a while. Strong dollar = headwind for risk assets like $BTC. U.S. Dollar $DXY sees its biggest 5-day gain since [----] 📈💵 https://t.co/SVjJq8MIGK U.S. Dollar $DXY sees its biggest 5-day gain since [----] 📈💵 https://t.co/SVjJq8MIGK"
X Link 2025-08-04T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"We just got a bit of a shock from the U.S. labor market. Only [-----] jobs were added in July. (well below the [------] expected) To make it worse May and June numbers were revised down by nearly [------]. A weakening labor market = higher chances of a rate cut. Markets are now pricing in an 88% chance of a cut in September"
X Link 2025-08-05T17:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact $BTC $SPX and more. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=pinned_post https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/subscribeutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=pinned_post"
X Link 2025-08-05T19:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2/ Gold spiked higher In times of uncertainty markets run straight for gold"
X Link 2025-08-06T16:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"3/ Short-term US Treasury yields plunged 2-Year Treasury saw the biggest fall in almost a year. This is a good sign because short-term treasury yields are linked to interest rates. Falling ST yields = higher chance of a rate cut"
X Link 2025-08-06T16:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The tariff machine is back on. The U.S. has already collected $127B in tariff revenue this year ($72B more than this time last year) Why A sweeping July [--] executive order imposed new tariffs on dozens of countries with rates as high as 50% in some cases. Countries not even named in the order face a default 10% tariff. China Mexico and Canada were excluded from the order but are still getting separate tariff treatment. The tariff saga is already reshaping global trade"
X Link 2025-08-06T17:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The labor market continues to soften. Initial Jobless Claims just came out: - Actual: 226K - Expected: 221K - Previous: 219K At this rate a September cut is looking more and more likely. We just got a bit of a shock from the U.S. labor market. Only [-----] jobs were added in July. (well below the [------] expected) To make it worse May and June numbers were revised down by nearly [------]. A weakening labor market = higher chances of a rate cut. Markets are https://t.co/NUerpFdrkf We just got a bit of a shock from the U.S. labor market. Only [-----] jobs were added in July. (well below the 110000"
X Link 2025-08-07T12:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Everyones watching the Fed. But the real liquidity boost Its coming from somewhere else entirely. https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/treasury-qe-to-continueutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250807_thurs https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/p/treasury-qe-to-continueutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250807_thurs"
X Link 2025-08-07T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Milk Road's Macro Framework: How The Big Picture Empowers Investors w/ @BitcoinJesus17 Fiat isnt backed by gold. Its backed by debt. If that doesnt scare you a little youre not paying attention. Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 - Intro 02:24 - What Is Macro & Why It Matters for Investors 04:47 - The [--] Pillars of Macro: Starting with Money 15:56 - How Debt & Policy Shape the Economy 23:51 - Nexo 24:25 - Figure Markets 25:00 - Where to Allocate Capital Right Now 32:00 - Macro Framework Recap & Key Takeaways 35:08 - Lessons from BlackRock 38:08 - Why Investor Community Matters 41:14 -"
X Link 2025-08-07T19:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@MilkRoadDaily $SPX final boss"
X Link 2025-08-07T23:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@kyle_chasse Gold hit highs BTC hitting highs Alts are about to melt faces And Nancy pelosi will front run everything. Even cryptos"
X Link 2025-08-08T00:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Markets move in seasons and most people have no idea which one theyre in. Since the [----] crisis a [--] year cycle has quietly played out. Miss the timing and you end up fighting the cycle. Understand it and you start investing with rhythm"
X Link 2025-08-08T20:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-08-09T20:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-08-10T17:10Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Were moving from country wide tariffs to company specific deals. $NVDA and $AMD will now give the US government 15% of their China revenue. In exchange for export licenses to keep selling advanced chips there. This isnt about profit its a direct cut of sales and it marks a major shift in how trade policy works. Other US chipmakers could face the same terms. For firms with heavy China exposure 15% of revenue can translate into an even larger hit to profit. Its also a geopolitical signal: Washington isnt just restricting exports anymore its monetizing them. The US is effectively charging a toll"
X Link 2025-08-11T14:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The top [--] companies in the S&P [---] are cruisin' These are the ones driving AI innovation right now. Strip them out and the $SPX is basically flat. AI is completely reshaping investment behaviour"
X Link 2025-08-11T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-08-11T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@WhiteHouse @POTUS"
X Link 2025-08-11T20:13Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements
""We're in a NEW bull market" "The bear market basically ended in April" Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson just gave us the green light"
X Link 2025-08-12T09:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"CPI data drops in [--] minutes. Market expectation: 2.8% Anything higher could slash the odds of a September rate cut"
X Link 2025-08-12T12:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"JUST IN: CPI comes in cooler than expected at 2.7%. A September rate cut is looking like a sure thing now. CPI data drops in [--] minutes. Market expectation: 2.8% Anything higher could slash the odds of a September rate cut. https://t.co/FQMLXFrpYe CPI data drops in [--] minutes. Market expectation: 2.8% Anything higher could slash the odds of a September rate cut. https://t.co/FQMLXFrpYe"
X Link 2025-08-12T12:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-08-12T13:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-08-12T18:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"HUGE NEWS: The U.S. national debt surpassed a record $37T today. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) thought wed get here in [----] But we made it [--] years early. The U.S.'s credit card bill just keeps ticking higher. Thanks to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act the debt just officially passed the $37 trillion mark. https://t.co/x4iCOdL2q5 Thanks to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act the debt just officially passed the $37 trillion mark. https://t.co/x4iCOdL2q5"
X Link 2025-08-13T06:09Z [----] followers, 11.8K engagements
"Alongside the surging U.S. debt M2 money supply just hit an all-time high of $22T. More dollars in the system = huge boost for risk assets like $BTC and the $SPX. HUGE NEWS: The U.S. national debt surpassed a record $37T today. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) thought wed get here in [----] But we made it [--] years early. The U.S.'s credit card bill just keeps ticking higher. HUGE NEWS: The U.S. national debt surpassed a record $37T today. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) thought wed get here in [----] But we made it [--] years early. The U.S.'s credit card bill just keeps ticking higher"
X Link 2025-08-13T12:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Whos next for Fed Chair Christopher Waller is now the frontrunner with a 38% chance on Polymarket. Hes notably dovish even voting for a rate cut in Julys FOMC meeting"
X Link 2025-08-13T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The labor market is weakening But not for the reasons you think. Slower job creation is being driven by a slowdown in immigration. @ramahluwalia @LumidaWealth"
X Link 2025-08-13T18:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ramahluwalia @LumidaWealth In the full pod with Ram Ahluwalia we cover why stablecoins are a macro gamechanger the Feds next moves AIs impact on the economy and how to spot big narratives early. Full episode here: https://youtu.be/xRtgp-F4iUkfeature=shared https://youtu.be/xRtgp-F4iUkfeature=shared"
X Link 2025-08-14T01:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Yikes. July PPI came in at 3.3% vs. 2.5% expected. Normally these reports miss by 0.10.2% but this ones a big outlier. Markets arent loving it. But the odds of a September rate cut are still high at 96.5%"
X Link 2025-08-14T12:58Z [----] followers, 12K engagements
"Tariffs are raking in serious cash. In July [----] U.S. tariff revenue jumped over 300% to a RECORD $29.6B. This is the highest monthly haul by a long shot. Trumps trade playbook seems to be working"
X Link 2025-08-14T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Were in an unusual macro setup. Fund managers expect global inflation to rise. But interest rates to stay flat or drop. The final verdict on U.S. cuts could come Aug 22nd. Thats when Powell speaks at Jackson Hole"
X Link 2025-08-15T13:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroadmacro.beehiiv.com/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-08-15T16:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"There is a 95% chance of a September rate cut. Cooling CPI has shifted the Feds focus toward a weakening labor market. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs expect a standard 25bps cut. While BlackRock and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are calling for 50bps. If the Fed delivers it would add liquidity and potentially kick off a powerful move in risk assets"
X Link 2025-08-15T17:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"BIG WEEK AHEAD FOR MACRO Key events to watch: - Mon: TrumpZelensky meeting - Wed: Fed minutes (July meeting) - Thu: S&P PMI data - Fri: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole 10am ET"
X Link 2025-08-18T12:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The U.S. collected $28.4B in tariff revenue in July alone. At that pace Scott Bessents $300B annual estimate looks conservative. For context: $300B+ is nearly the size of the entire corporate tax haul in 2022"
X Link 2025-08-18T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Small businesses are flashing warning signs. Reports of poor sales just hit the highest level since [----]. Historically this has been a leading indicator of rising unemployment. Pair that with sticky inflation and the economy could be heading into rough waters"
X Link 2025-08-19T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Gold is having a stellar [----]. Despite the so-called risk-on sentiment Gold has outperformed both $BTC and the $SPX this year. Turns out the shiny rock still shines brightest"
X Link 2025-08-20T12:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Fed is in a tough spot. On one side: the labor market is softening. We just saw the weakest 3-month jobs growth since the [----] pandemic. On the other side: inflation is creeping back up. Slow jobs growth + rising inflation = problem for the Fed"
X Link 2025-08-20T15:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Jerome Powell takes the stage at Jackson Hole in [--] hours. The big question: How will he position the Fed Dovish (hinting at cuts) Hawkish (delaying cuts) He ain't gonna say shit Dovish (hinting at cuts) Hawkish (delaying cuts) He ain't gonna say shit"
X Link 2025-08-21T14:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Forget the usual [--] year cycle. This bull market may run longer than anyone expects. The business cycle hasnt even ramped yet which is why the rally could stretch into [----]. @KyleReidhead"
X Link 2025-08-22T14:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Powells last Jackson Hole speech didnt promise cuts but it opened the door. He said policy is restrictive risks to jobs are rising and the Fed may need to adjust stance depending on the data. Markets took the hint: September cut odds jumped from 75% 90%"
X Link 2025-08-22T14:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Markets exploded higher as soon as Powell started speaking at Jackson Hole. Stocks surged with the Nasdaq and Dow up nearly 1.8% and the S&P [---] climbing 1.5%. At the same time bond yields collapsed with the [--] year Treasury plunging from 3.78% to 3.69% in minutes. The move was clear: Traders heard Powell leaning dovish and rushed into risk assets"
X Link 2025-08-22T14:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bonds dont get the same hype as stocks or crypto. But they might be the single most important chart to watch. Why Because when [--] year Treasury yields climb above 4.5% theyve consistently spoiled the party for risk assets. The chart says it all: every time yields rise through that yellow line the S&P [---] stumbles. Higher yields mean tighter financial conditions resulting in less fuel for stocks crypto and everything in between. The bond market calls the shots Ignore it at your own risk"
X Link 2025-08-22T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Non profitable stocks are on a tear. High growth tech names with negative earnings have surged 66% since April That's more than double the $SPXs 31% gain over the same period. Investors are clearly piling back into speculative growth"
X Link 2025-08-23T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This chart is good news for risk assets. The MOVE index is hovering near multi-year lows. Low MOVE = stable yields = risk-on environment"
X Link 2025-08-23T17:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Fed sparked a rally last week. Jerome Powells speech at Jackson Hole opened the door to a potential rate cut in September and markets responded accordingly. Stocks surged with the S&P [---] rising nearly 2% Beyond Powells speech heres what else moved markets last week: Gold continued to outperform shining brighter than $BTC and the $SPX in [----]. Retail investors continued to pour capital into equity ETFs even as institutions pulled back. The labor market showed cracks with underemployment among young workers climbing toward recession era levels. And inflation swaps are rising indicating"
X Link 2025-08-24T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The dollar just broke its downward trend. For the first half of the year a weakening $DXY was a tailwind for global liquidity and risk assets. Now were in a correction phase. Driven by extreme bearish positioning getting shaken out and the Treasury rebuilding its cash balance ($500B+ TGA rebuild = dollar bullish). Structurally the dollar is still in a downtrend. But in the near term this shakeout could keep pressure on liquidity until late September"
X Link 2025-08-25T13:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Bearish futures bets against the dollar are being unwound fast. Positioning had gotten extremely negative and now the squeeze is playing out as the $DXY corrects higher. Weak dollar trades are getting flushed before the bigger downtrend can resume"
X Link 2025-08-25T14:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Inflation is heating back up. CPI has been creeping higher for months and now PPI just printed 0.9% MoM Thats more than 10% annualized. It leaves Powell stuck: the jobs market is cooling but inflation is refusing to roll over. That exact dilemma is discussed in our latest pod w/ @ces921 https://youtu.be/q-Sucad1j3I https://youtu.be/q-Sucad1j3I"
X Link 2025-08-25T15:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Despite the inflation worries Growing confidence in a weakening job market has led to expectations of a dovish Fed chair and rising hopes for rate cuts. Traders are currently pricing an 83% probability of a 25bps rate cut in September"
X Link 2025-08-25T17:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Why Wall Street is About to Rush Into Crypto w/ @DigitalAssets Vice President of Research @ChrisJKuiper Bonds just had a 5-year drawdown. Fidelitys Chris Kuiper asks the question few on Wall Street dare to: Are bonds a permanently impaired asset class Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 Intro 01:59 Why $BTC Isnt Pumping 05:17 Fidelitys Crypto Gameplan 08:51 Bitcoins Role in Macro 12:06 Do Rate Cuts Even Matter 17:07 KGeN 17:42 Institutions: Still Early 21:22 Bonds Are Broken 26:02 BTC: Tailwinds vs Headwinds 29:39 Is the 4-Year Cycle Dead 32:54 Will Every Company Hold BTC 37:08 $ETH"
X Link 2025-08-26T15:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Powell downplayed inflation hinted at cuts and risk assets loved it. Heres what that really signals. https://milkroad.com/macro/what-powell-s-jackson-hole-speech-means/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250826_tues https://milkroad.com/macro/what-powell-s-jackson-hole-speech-means/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250826_tues"
X Link 2025-08-26T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"HUGE NEWS: The EU just proposed removing all tariffs on industrial goods to meet President Trumps demands. They aim to make it official by the end of the week. Trump gets his way. Again"
X Link 2025-08-27T11:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Short-term headwind on the way $DXY generally has an inverse relationship with risk assets: The $DXY goes down risk assets go up 1-3 months later. But now the dollar is trending slightly higher. Not a bad picture yet but definitely less bullish than [--] weeks ago. The dollar just broke its downward trend. For the first half of the year a weakening $DXY was a tailwind for global liquidity and risk assets. Now were in a correction phase. Driven by extreme bearish positioning getting shaken out and the Treasury rebuilding its cash https://t.co/E54jcHGBt6 The dollar just broke its downward trend."
X Link 2025-08-27T17:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"NEW DATA: - Q2 GDP: 3.3% vs 3.0% expected - Jobless claims: 229K vs 231K expected Stronger growth + resilient labor market = good news for the U.S. economy. Despite this "hot" data Sept rate cut odds are still up at 85%"
X Link 2025-08-28T13:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Trump isnt waiting on Powell. Hes moving to reshape the Fed right now. https://mrmacro.milkroad.com/p/trump-has-launched-an-attack-on-the-fedutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250828_thurs https://mrmacro.milkroad.com/p/trump-has-launched-an-attack-on-the-fedutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250828_thurs"
X Link 2025-08-28T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-08-28T23:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"BREAKING: July PCE inflation landed right in line with expectations. Since this is the Feds preferred inflation gauge The path looks clear for a September rate cut"
X Link 2025-08-29T12:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The latest ISM came in at [--] still in contraction (below 50). Sounds bearish but history says otherwise: When PMI prints [--] or lower the S&P [---] has historically gained 20%+ over the next year. Are your bags ready The ISM is throwing a tantrum. Since [----] its mostly followed a predictable [--] year cycle. But since mid-2023 its broken pattern and lost direction. This makes it much harder to pin down exactly where we are in the business cycle. https://t.co/yWTTaCsGpM The ISM is throwing a tantrum. Since [----] its mostly followed a predictable [--] year cycle. But since mid-2023 its broken pattern"
X Link 2025-08-29T14:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This hasnt happened in [---] years. Trump announced he was firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook effective immediately. But heres the twist: shes not actually out. Polymarket odds suggest shes unlikely to leave before Dec 31st"
X Link 2025-08-29T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Expect volatility. But also expect higher prices before the end of the year. @scottmelker"
X Link 2025-08-29T19:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@scottmelker Thats just one part of Scotts outlook. In the full interview he covers how liquidity cycles Fed policy and politics could set the stage for the next $BTC run. https://youtu.be/M1ZGdZvCrtAfeature=shared https://youtu.be/M1ZGdZvCrtAfeature=shared"
X Link 2025-08-29T20:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-08-31T15:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-08-31T17:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$SPX +400% vs. $BTC +2743020566% Last [--] years"
X Link 2025-08-31T17:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The next FOMC meeting is just [--] days away. Markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut. The rate-cutting cycle is starting soon"
X Link 2025-09-02T17:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Weve seen a strong rebound since April. After recession fears flared during the Trump-tariff saga The U.S. economy is now showing no signs of slowing down"
X Link 2025-09-03T13:26Z [----] followers, 10.7K engagements
"Despite the S&P [---] going wild. Its being driven by the GAMMA stocks: $GOOGL $AAPL $AMZN $META & $MSFT. - Index with GAMMA: 11% avg return - Index without GAMMA: 6% avg return And most of the 6% gains comes from $NVDA. 5-7 stocks are doing all the heavy lifting. U.S. stock valuations just hit a new ATH. It even surpassed the Dot Com bubble of [----]. The question now: how much higher can they really go https://t.co/pQRl7FtGKs U.S. stock valuations just hit a new ATH. It even surpassed the Dot Com bubble of [----]. The question now: how much higher can they really go https://t.co/pQRl7FtGKs"
X Link 2025-09-03T15:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Gold is sitting around $3400. Goldman Sachs says it could climb to $5000 if Trump undermines the Fed. Despite already doubling over the last [--] years Theyre calling for another massive surge. That would mark one of golds strongest runs in modern history. Gold has had a very strong 10-day run. Up more than 6%. As the ultimate safe-haven asset. Could this be signaling that something big is on the horizon https://t.co/6sY9IBuEsp Gold has had a very strong 10-day run. Up more than 6%. As the ultimate safe-haven asset. Could this be signaling that something big is on the horizon"
X Link 2025-09-04T12:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The labour market is cracking. - Jobless claims: 237K vs. 230K expected - Job openings: 7.18M vs. 7.38M expected Translation: Weakness across the board. But heres why markets love it: Weaker labour market higher odds of rate cuts. After the weak jobs data The odds of a September rate cut have jumped to 97.4%. Jerome Powell might as well pack scissors for the meeting"
X Link 2025-09-04T13:04Z [----] followers, 10.2K engagements
"Why Government Debt Is Breaking the Global Economy w/ @qthomp The U.S. is spending like its still [----]. But nobody wants their bonds anymore. Quinn explains what happens when the biggest borrower in the world runs out of buyers. Tune in to know more TIME POINTS 00:00 Intro 01:37 Bond Yields Are Exploding 05:16 Can Long-Dated Bonds Be Saved 08:58 Whats a Bond Vigilante 12:47 Yields After Rate Cuts 16:36 KGeN 17:11 How the Fed Sets Policy (and Trumps Plan) 22:55 Capital Flows: Gold $BTC & Risk Assets 29:11 Will Bitcoin Follow Golds Breakout 31:33 Bitcoin Outlook for Q4 35:57 Delayed Cycle or"
X Link 2025-09-04T15:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Seasonality charts pop up every September warning of the worst month. But they dont tell you why. Vacation resets tax withdrawals light liquidity and psychology all play a role. The takeaway: Seasonality is more about flows and behavior than the calendar itself. Understanding those drivers matters far more than fearing the month. We breakdown those drivers here: https://mrmacro.milkroad.com/p/will-we-see-a-spooky-septemberutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250904_thurs"
X Link 2025-09-04T16:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Labour market crisis incoming The US has more unemployed people than job openings for the first since April [----]. This is yet another crack in the labour market. The labour market is cracking. - Jobless claims: 237K vs. 230K expected - Job openings: 7.18M vs. 7.38M expected Translation: Weakness across the board. But heres why markets love it: Weaker labour market higher odds of rate cuts. After the weak jobs data The odds of https://t.co/Aa2paEwFKQ The labour market is cracking. - Jobless claims: 237K vs. 230K expected - Job openings: 7.18M vs. 7.38M expected Translation: Weakness across the"
X Link 2025-09-04T16:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-09-04T23:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-09-05T11:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Despite the recent rally in major U.S. stock indices Tariff fears continue to linger. Goldman Sachs sentiment indicator backs that up sitting at [----]. "Extreme greed" doesnt kick in until its above [--]. Investors are approaching this rally with caution. U.S. stock valuations just hit a new ATH. It even surpassed the Dot Com bubble of [----]. The question now: how much higher can they really go https://t.co/pQRl7FtGKs U.S. stock valuations just hit a new ATH. It even surpassed the Dot Com bubble of [----]. The question now: how much higher can they really go https://t.co/pQRl7FtGKs"
X Link 2025-09-06T15:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-09-06T19:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Heres another positive signal for economic growth: Atlanta Feds GDPNow is pointing to a resilient outlook for Q3. Growth is looking much stronger than expected. Weve seen a strong rebound since April. After recession fears flared during the Trump-tariff saga The U.S. economy is now showing no signs of slowing down. https://t.co/UCHSzhCUyn Weve seen a strong rebound since April. After recession fears flared during the Trump-tariff saga The U.S. economy is now showing no signs of slowing down. https://t.co/UCHSzhCUyn"
X Link 2025-09-07T14:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-09-08T13:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Despite the S&P [---] hitting fresh highs Hedge funds are shorting the $SPX at a record pace. Short exposure hit an ATH at $180B. Hedge funds are bracing for a pullback. U.S. stock valuations just hit a new ATH. It even surpassed the Dot Com bubble of [----]. The question now: how much higher can they really go https://t.co/pQRl7FtGKs U.S. stock valuations just hit a new ATH. It even surpassed the Dot Com bubble of [----]. The question now: how much higher can they really go https://t.co/pQRl7FtGKs"
X Link 2025-09-08T15:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"HUGE NEWS: US job growth was revised down by [------] the largest downward revision in history. The economy looks shakier than many realized. This all but locks in a September rate cut And Polymarket even shows a 14% chance of a 50bps cut"
X Link 2025-09-09T15:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Markets now see a Fed cut as certain with odds of 50bps climbing. Weak jobs vs resilient growth puts the Fed in a bind but if theres no recession history says cuts are bullish for risk assets. So whats the Fed really about to do https://mrmacro.milkroad.com/p/50bps-fed-rate-cut-in-septemberutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250909_tues https://mrmacro.milkroad.com/p/50bps-fed-rate-cut-in-septemberutm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=20250909_tues"
X Link 2025-09-09T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Truflation is currently sitting at 2%. The Fed still sees inflation as above target But thats not the main problem anymore. The Fed is putting all their focus on the labour market"
X Link 2025-09-09T17:51Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Its starting to feel a lot like last year. In [----] jobs data softened in July/August And the Fed responded with a jumbo 50bps cut that September. Fast forward to today: Markets are pricing an 8.3% chance of another 50bps cut this September"
X Link 2025-09-10T18:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-09-10T20:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Now that a 25bps cut is basically locked in Lets look ahead to year-end: Theres a 73.3% chance of three more cuts in [----]. [--] FOMC meetings left. [--] possible cuts. 50bps rate cut incoming Markets are now pricing a 100% chance of a September cut: - 89% odds of 25bps - 11% odds of 50bps A 50bps cut would be massive for $BTC and $SPX. https://t.co/kyTAq0WtYS 50bps rate cut incoming Markets are now pricing a 100% chance of a September cut: - 89% odds of 25bps - 11% odds of 50bps A 50bps cut would be massive for $BTC and $SPX. https://t.co/kyTAq0WtYS"
X Link 2025-09-12T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Most of the recent US job growth is coming from just one place: Private education & healthcare. Over the past [--] months this single sector has accounted for the bulk of all new jobs. That concentration is concerning"
X Link 2025-09-13T16:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Get smarter about macro investing with our 5-minute newsletter. We break down how global markets impact Bitcoin stocks & gold. Subscribe here: https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug https://milkroad.com/macro/utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_organic_macro&utm_campaign=autoplug"
X Link 2025-09-13T20:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing