#  @Mij_Europe Mujtaba Rahman Mujtaba Rahman posts on X about ukraine, france, paris, greenland the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1080199496951304192/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] +5,175% - [--] Month [---------] -6.30% - [--] Months [---------] +97% - [--] Year [----------] -55% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1080199496951304192/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] +48% - [--] Months [---] +25% - [--] Year [---] -62% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1080199496951304192/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +0.17% - [--] Month [------] +0.64% - [--] Months [------] +1.30% - [--] Year [------] +5.20% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1080199496951304192/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [countries](/list/countries) [finance](/list/finance) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [us election](/list/us-election) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [currencies](/list/currencies) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [stocks](/list/stocks) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [ukraine](/topic/ukraine) #1318, [france](/topic/france) #2088, [paris](/topic/paris) #1043, [greenland](/topic/greenland), [countries](/topic/countries), [germany](/topic/germany), [russia](/topic/russia) #3231, [defence](/topic/defence), [in the](/topic/in-the), [elon musk](/topic/elon-musk) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@emmanuelmacron](/creator/undefined) [@keirstarmer](/creator/undefined) [@vonderleyen](/creator/undefined) [@eucommission](/creator/undefined) [@borisjohnson](/creator/undefined) [@ft](/creator/undefined) [@uklabour](/creator/undefined) [@trussliz](/creator/undefined) [@pmviktororban](/creator/undefined) [@rishisunak](/creator/undefined) [@mlpofficiel](/creator/undefined) [@elysee](/creator/undefined) [@bundeskanzler](/creator/undefined) [@europarlen](/creator/undefined) [@politicoeurope](/creator/undefined) [@gabrielattal](/creator/undefined) [@gideonrachman](/creator/undefined) [@henryjfoy](/creator/undefined) [@michelbarnier](/creator/undefined) [@pmdfoster](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Rally (RLY)](/topic/rally) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Overall we see chances of no-deal election imposed on Govt or ref as equally tied at this stage. A lot less likely: A50 extension (with no election/ref); MPs voting to prevent no-deal through revocation & accepted by Govt; or a new PM securing backing for tweaked deal ENDS" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1133119648579358720) 2019-05-27T21:15Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "As one senior EU official says BJ showed "determination to get a deal done. That's why Merkel moved. If UK wanted a serious substantive relationship it would have been easier to allow something on Island of Ireland that wasn't bullet proof. One leak on dike would have been OK"" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1169995213194104832) 2019-09-06T15:26Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Our basecase is still a 1yr extension to the transition that will come at the very last minute next June. But we'll all probably have to go round the no deal circle all over again in the first half of next year 3/3" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1198666027766370304) 2019-11-24T18:13Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "@Rubble2012 Not an unfair point. But my point here is quite simple: we'd be wrong to assume reality will force a softening like it did with May's Govt. This is a divergence Govt. That will impact Govt's priorities & its assessment of trade-offs" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1211982964084682752) 2019-12-31T12:10Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements ".@tconnellyRTE is correct on this. But to be fair this has been clear from EU side since early/mid-Dec 8/ Member states and the Commission want to take May's commitments as the starting point when it comes to level playing field - ie at the very least non-regression clauses for labour and social standards environment climate change taxation and dynamic alignment for state aid 8/ Member states and the Commission want to take May's commitments as the starting point when it comes to level playing field - ie at the very least non-regression clauses for labour and social standards environment" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1217212741787754496) 2020-01-14T22:31Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Which is strange. (EU) leaders who are implementing very strong containment measures even framing the Covid-19 crisis as war are benefiting in polling. Unclear what's driving @BorisJohnson hesitancy. Surely not econ impact/trade-offs" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1241666532318552064) 2020-03-22T10:02Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Govt under pressure from @thesundaytimes piece. Expect detailed rebuttal from Govt later but they know these short-term issues will be subject to an inquiry. Ministers very worried that UK might end up worst in EU on what they privately describe as "league table of death." Ugh" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1251801649674412034) 2020-04-19T09:15Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "The desire to restructure UK economy post Covid & gear it to "industries of future" is exactly why UK Govt might drive it off the EU cliff at the end of this year. No deal may seem counterintuitive to the rest of us but it's not for @BorisJohnson & a large number of Cabinet The key thing to understand is that for Boris Johnson this is no longer primarily a health but an economic crisis. My FT col https://t.co/1i2JjcfzWg https://t.co/QoDyINjgfK The key thing to understand is that for Boris Johnson this is no longer primarily a health but an economic crisis. My FT col https://t.co/1i2JjcfzWg" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1267548410103676929) 2020-06-01T20:07Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "Rightly or wrongly many at top of Govt - the Vote Leave gang - think only way to deliver on their substantive divergence agenda is via no deal. Only no deal fully delivers on their world view @pmdfoster @Mij_Europe Nobody ever wants no-deal. How far either side will go for a deal is always the question. We know roughly what the EU will settle for. UK no deal threats appear unconvincingly to try to change that. They won't. Question then is how far UK will move towards the EU position. @pmdfoster @Mij_Europe Nobody ever wants no-deal. How far either side will go for a deal is always the" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1270688789988618246) 2020-06-10T12:06Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Covid-19 has shot Govt's short-term credibility. No deal would compound that. That's how Coronavirus & Brexit/trade talks are now interacting. Thinking was diff just a few weeks ago. From my perspective it's all politics ENDS" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1276078161453895680) 2020-06-25T09:01Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "Now the piece has disappeared @FT This article has been amended to remove an erroneous statement that no woman in a headscarf has carried out a terrorist attack in France and correct a mistranslation of Mr Macrons reference to Islamist separatism. This article has been amended to remove an erroneous statement that no woman in a headscarf has carried out a terrorist attack in France and correct a mistranslation of Mr Macrons reference to Islamist separatism" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1323649505259065345) 2020-11-03T15:33Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Is it purely coincidental that this is happening now it's clear @JoeBiden has it BREAKING: Boris Johnson will hold a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday as they seek a Brexit trade agreement https://t.co/CLotWfCNrx https://t.co/o9xvcauOyR BREAKING: Boris Johnson will hold a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday as they seek a Brexit trade agreement https://t.co/CLotWfCNrx https://t.co/o9xvcauOyR" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1324750311504912385) 2020-11-06T16:27Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "Hear same. It's far from clear in the event of no deal that @BorisJohnson will drop controversial clauses in IM Bill in order to smooth relations with Washington The government will reinstate any parts of its international law-breaking Brexit legislation that are removed by the House of Lords a cabinet minister has vowed https://t.co/psaqbUTQae The government will reinstate any parts of its international law-breaking Brexit legislation that are removed by the House of Lords a cabinet minister has vowed https://t.co/psaqbUTQae" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1325869386788450306) 2020-11-09T18:34Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "@john_lichfield She did you a favour John. Totally thick" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1330624555619069952) 2020-11-22T21:29Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements ".@BorisJohnson hates detail & hates not pleasing people He has to do both to deliver a Brexit deal 😬" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1331272147210264591) 2020-11-24T16:23Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "Thankfully fully respect UK sovereignty is a relative & subjective concept" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1332328797119655939) 2020-11-27T14:21Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Although @BorisJohnson & @vonderleyen will talk again at 5pm the utility of their calls is clearly diminishing Many on EU side worry that what @10DowningStreet is actually trying to do is sideline @EU_Commission - & force EU leaders to address Brexit impasse at Council on Thurs" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1335945406438662145) 2020-12-07T13:53Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "Ministers who are privately nervous about short-term disruption & medium long term economic impact of no deal - & there are many - need to speak up now Despite Cabinet backing @BorisJohnson publicly the majority don't buy his prosper mightily nonsense" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1337304075491282947) 2020-12-11T07:51Z 61.1K followers, [----] engagements "This had previously been ruled out By signalling this now Govt is attempting to show its growing comfort with no deal U.K. Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove said that Britain and the European Union could engage in a series of mini unilateral deals if no trade agreement is reached by the end of the month https://t.co/ErcoPvILSm U.K. Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove said that Britain and the European Union could engage in a series of mini unilateral deals if no trade agreement is reached by the end of the month https://t.co/ErcoPvILSm" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1340607144010403841) 2020-12-20T10:37Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "@LCreighton Yes. I'm just being annoying. Thx for seeing through it Lucinda" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1364611138525233153) 2021-02-24T16:20Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Today the UK will become first major economy to begin to signal the pivot from stimulus to adjustment trying to chart a fiscal reset for a post-Covid world Govt will extend furlough but most imp part of Budget will be Sunaks language on future tax rises & detail he spells out" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1367013236252508162) 2021-03-03T07:25Z 59.4K followers, [--] engagements "May sought deeper relationship w/EU & was roundly humiliated by them. Officials on BOTH sides acknowledge this. Fr said Chequers was worse than no deal. Is it any wonder Johnson/Frost concluded only a tough approach can work HMG thinks EU has ended up w relationship it deserves" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1369947069843136513) 2021-03-11T09:43Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements ".@DominicRaab said: It is the EU that by trying to erect a barrier down the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and Great Britain that is challenging the spirit of Northern Ireland Protocol and the Good Friday agreement. 😭 😬 or 😂 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/17/dominic-raab-accuses-eu-of-trying-to-erect-irish-sea-border https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/17/dominic-raab-accuses-eu-of-trying-to-erect-irish-sea-border" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1372293538826887170) 2021-03-17T21:07Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "Crisis Macron is at 39% - at this point in Fr electoral cycle better placed than any of his recent predecessors (Hollande Sarkozy Chirac. ) to retake lyse next year When Le Pen seen as lesser evil French politics really is in crisis. When Le Pen seen as lesser evil French politics really is in crisis" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1377922193191936005) 2021-04-02T09:53Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "Key point in an excellent thread The gap between UK & EU will prob level out considerably this quarter given rapid scale-up we're seeing in continental Europe & delays now experienced in UK In terms of full vax/easing restrictions they'll basically be tracking one another Thirdly this is not just a French success. Most other EU countries are also vaxxing at high rates now that large supplies of Pfizer and to a less extent Moderna are available. Johnson and Johnson starts its one-jab rollout in the EU on [--] April. 7/12 Thirdly this is not just a French success. Most other EU countries are also" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1380815706711818241) 2021-04-10T09:31Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "The most important vote today is Scotland's. Sleaze Covid & even Brexit will soon be dwarfed by @BorisJohnson biggest problem - how to preserve the UK. Officialdom is very (very) worried. Is there a plan Thread based on how I see things 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1390190950123810816) 2021-05-06T06:25Z 61.1K followers, [----] engagements "Very skeptical Hartlepool will result in @Keir_Starmer changing @UKLabour (non) narrative policy stance on Europe In a FPTP electoral system what's the point in Lab delivering ever stronger majorities in areas where it already has them" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1390608056644407299) 2021-05-07T10:02Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "The EU will soon adopt a code of conduct for how [--] should interact with UK. Will force a level of transparency co-ordination on EU capitals & their dealings with London Unprecedented for EU to do this with a 3rd country. Shows how little trust there is with at moment" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1400353592339468288) 2021-06-03T07:28Z 61.9K followers, [----] engagements "So @BorisJohnson tells DUPs Jeffrey Donaldson at PMQs that unless Govt sees progress on totally disproportionate way EU is implementing Protocol we will have to take the necessary steps to safeguard UK internal market & unfettered GB-NI trade" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1405125735535230979) 2021-06-16T11:30Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Events in Afg of course make clear the need for HMG to build closer alliances with the EU But @BorisJohnson wants to ensure Brexit IS an issue at the next general election. So he (& many Tory MPs) will remain instinctively wary of closer links with the EU" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1432382045691383810) 2021-08-30T16:37Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Elabe poll in Les Echos showing Macron UP [--] points to 37% approval their highest score for him for months [--] days after Paris Match/IFOP had him go down to 38% their lowest score for months. At least they're now more in line. BUT how weird are Fr polls https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle/sondage-exclusif-un-francais-sur-cinq-a-une-image-positive-deric-zemmour-1342781 https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle/sondage-exclusif-un-francais-sur-cinq-a-une-image-positive-deric-zemmour-1342781" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1433454812520226817) 2021-09-02T15:40Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Nice new @pmdfoster handle "One of the worst hacks in SW1" 😂😭" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1433789763555893249) 2021-09-03T13:51Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "Frost "Brexit is not a thing in itself. It is not a choice to live in permanent confrontation with our. neighbours. Rather it is a 1st stage a necessary gateway through which this country had to pass in order to give us freedom" Are Ger Fr etc not free https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/lord-frost-speech-at-british-irish-association-4-september-2021 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/lord-frost-speech-at-british-irish-association-4-september-2021" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1434145396662677504) 2021-09-04T13:24Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "Its ironic said one EU diplomat. They talked about taking back control but they are letting products into Britain without any controls at all. Thats fine with us. https://www.ft.com/content/e32dda1b-7dbe-454e-ab32-3d80604df431segmentid=acee4131-99c2-09d3-a635-873e61754ec6 https://www.ft.com/content/e32dda1b-7dbe-454e-ab32-3d80604df431segmentid=acee4131-99c2-09d3-a635-873e61754ec6" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1437887646957768704) 2021-09-14T21:15Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "As one Cabinet minister says privately the attitude of @BorisJohnson to everything - Protocol AUKUS COP26 etc is: It will be alright on the night. Until it isn't" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1439854575507415040) 2021-09-20T07:30Z 61.9K followers, [----] engagements "First time travelling to Bxl in [--] years. It took [--] mins to get through passport control check vaccine passport etc. I budgeted a 1.5h cushion 😭🤷🏽♂ #Outofpracticetravelling" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1444555863658831872) 2021-10-03T06:52Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Among Brexiteer types there's a lot of Well the Poles are challenging and don't like the ECJ either Yes. And they stand to lose billions of in Covid-recovery financing as a result. Not sure it's the example the headbangers should be reaching for" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1447583503428866053) 2021-10-11T15:22Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "Worth noting that since the Protocol has been in place there have been NO rulings or pending cases before the ECJ" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1447593718324809737) 2021-10-11T16:03Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "In Policy Exchange foreword Frost warns EU has behaved without regard to huge political economic & identity sensitivities in NI & . has destroyed cross-community consent in NI. Enforcement of Protocol has begun to damage GFA Big UKG push now to pile more pressure on EU" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1455058089955184640) 2021-11-01T06:24Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "The UK is going to invoke Article [--]. They'll argue it's surgical - "it's only Articles [--] & 7" etc. But EU will (rightly) see it as nuclear I expect no intermediate step (tariffs). Just an immediate emergency EU Council & political decision to *suspend* the UK-EU trade deal 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1456520115814535186) 2021-11-05T07:13Z 61.9K followers, [----] engagements "I'm surprised the Govt hasn't today triggered Article 16" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1468543760493690892) 2021-12-08T11:31Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "@ayeshahazarika 12.05" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1468545286905765893) 2021-12-08T11:37Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Has @Elysee taken down EU flag under pressure from far-right opp Or do they think they had effect they wanted & leaving it longer wd be unhelpful Unclear it was v thought out. Will quickly b forgotten & another campaign quarrel will bury it. Going to be almost daily from now on" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1477609178663460871) 2022-01-02T11:54Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Getting VERY hostile reactions to PMQs from Tory MPs. Think @BorisJohnson done this year My guess - after May local elections. View is Johnson is battered beyond repair but better he takes flak over econ & local elections But then the knife 🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1481306579462983684) 2022-01-12T16:46Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "Who is most likely to replace @BorisJohnson as PM Sunak Truss Mordaunt Hunt Sunak Truss Mordaunt Hunt" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1483474716191080452) 2022-01-18T16:21Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Big breaking story here with obviously significant political & market implications. Folks haven't been paying attention because of Russia's war in Ukraine French elections etc but if @pmdfoster is right Article [--] is back in the political/policy mix - earlier than I suspected UK prepares law to give ministers power to tear up Northern Ireland post-Brexit trade deal my latest via @FT with @Sam1Fleming @jude_webber - thread tomorrow https://t.co/EnSuujzyvH UK prepares law to give ministers power to tear up Northern Ireland post-Brexit trade deal my latest via @FT with @Sam1Fleming @jude_webber" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1517241954656038913) 2022-04-21T20:40Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "The final Opinionway tracking poll of the French presidential campaign gives Macron a [--] point lead - up [--] points on yesterday. He is shownas beating Le Pen on Sunday by 57% to 43% (only slightly less than the [--] point lead in the Ipsos tracker last night) 1/2" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1517449622763053063) 2022-04-22T10:25Z 61.2K followers, [---] engagements ""UK has no populists in Parliament" @gideonrachman Not quite. - UK politics realigned with public opinion hence UK has no populists in Parliament - thats no small achievement and contrasts with France Germany Spain Italy etc - immigration now resumed but on terms that carry popular consent (points-based system) @gideonrachman Not quite. - UK politics realigned with public opinion hence UK has no populists in Parliament - thats no small achievement and contrasts with France Germany Spain Italy etc - immigration now resumed but on terms that carry popular consent (points-based system)" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1520367223906488321) 2022-04-30T11:39Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "President @EmmanuelMacron today offered a sweeping vision of a new European Political Community - an outer circle of European states including Ukraine and the UK which would be linked to the EU but not part of it 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1523659694136381440) 2022-05-09T13:42Z 61.9K followers, [----] engagements "HMG original line was: It's not the Protocol per se just the way the EU has chosen to implement it Now UK concern is no longer the operationalisation of the Protocol but the functioning of GFA institutions A much more extreme line. UKG wants Protocol gone not reformed" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1524120298483855360) 2022-05-10T20:12Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "Colonna is a career diplomat except for a spell as Jacques Chirac's lyse spokeswoman [--] years ago 2/2" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1527633617622532096) 2022-05-20T12:53Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Not Nile but Nul Unbelievable: Macron appoints UK ambassador who blamed post-Brexit tensions on Britain as French foreign minister https://t.co/mtFVw82x8y Unbelievable: Macron appoints UK ambassador who blamed post-Brexit tensions on Britain as French foreign minister https://t.co/mtFVw82x8y" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1528017155228323840) 2022-05-21T14:17Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Ugh. Horribly personal desperate stuff 🤮 1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July [----] when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks. 1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July [----] when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1533784431651168256) 2022-06-06T12:14Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "@VJMallet @RNational_off I'm always right @VJMallet. Always" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1539923772874047492) 2022-06-23T10:50Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "The leak of tens of thousands of Uber internal documents this wk showed Macron as econ minister went out of his way to help Uber disrupt Fr taxi monopolies from [----]. He made little secret of his support at time but Left & far right are accusing him of acting duplicitously 3/3" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1546887851614388229) 2022-07-12T16:02Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "So Sunak vs Truss. Will be very close. She will start as favourite & is bookies favourite. But think Sunak will look the better bet for members as we go through process till Sept. Even in initial i/v Sunak bests Truss. But he faces a dirty horrid onslaught from the Right" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1549826483908186112) 2022-07-20T18:40Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "@jonhenley @AngelDarkmoore I blocked him J. Life's too short" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1551676394782003201) 2022-07-25T21:10Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "@Sime0nStylites @anandMenon1 @AyhamKamel V v soon. ☺. But I'll be w the little monster. I earned this" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1552344692641222658) 2022-07-27T17:26Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "@CRGMurray Not "everyone". Impatience will grow. More imp: what happens in a year No reason to believe a deal is easier then compared to today" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1570337396612374528) 2022-09-15T09:03Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "@CRGMurray Stalemate is basecase for this year but am not high conviction. Risk of escalation remains & grows next yr. On your first point: In Bxl there is a debate. On UK side many ppl close to Truss want to *accelerate* passage - which Govt cd easily do by accepting hostile amendments" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1570339729102471169) 2022-09-15T09:12Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "EU side now very concerned about contagion risks UKG's fiscal actions pose to financial stability in the Eurozone Plenty of Euro area banks and insurance firms are exposed to UK gilts This is serious. EuropeanCommission is very worried. IMF is worried. White House is worried" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1575378302948282368) 2022-09-29T06:53Z 61.9K followers, [----] engagements "For those of us that cut our teeth through Greek debt crisis it was obvious more market pressure was likely would be relentless & that this is not a fight Truss & Kwarteng could ever hope to win. See no way back for Govt now given economic and political mess they've created 2/2" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1580183557150224384) 2022-10-12T13:08Z 61.9K followers, [----] engagements ".@trussliz and @KwasiKwarteng promised Singapore on Thames and instead delivered Athens circa 2009" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1580866770646114304) 2022-10-14T10:23Z 61.1K followers, [----] engagements "Discussions at Westminster over replacing @trussliz remain a mess .@RishiSunak & @PennyMordaunt can't agree among themselves who'd be top dog; Sunak doesnt want to work for a PM Mordaunt & vice versa. @theresa_may ppl have even put her forward () as a possible unity candidate" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1582444902343794688) 2022-10-18T18:53Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "Sense in Westminster today is @trussliz is safe until after [--] Oct. @Jeremy_Hunt perceived to have done a good job yesterday. Tory MP's wary of doing anything that could destabilise him upsets markets before then" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1582460226065686528) 2022-10-18T19:54Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Senior EU official: Can't go to bed. UK politics is better than @netflix right now" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1582849072373043202) 2022-10-19T21:40Z 61.9K followers, [----] engagements ".@trussliz: Awful. Not sorry no recognition of mistakes & suffering she has caused" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1584839926872387584) 2022-10-25T09:30Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements "Good to be back in Bxl to talk about. gas price caps Ukraine Hungary/Poland & RRF reform of EU fiscal rules Brexit European leadership/EU in [----]. Am I missing anything" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1596972728615325696) 2022-11-27T21:02Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements "Great to be back in Warsaw. Last time must have been almost [--] years ago. Lots of excellent meetings and a great @PolitykaInsight @ecfr conference tomorrow exploring how the Ukraine war has (or has not) transformed the EU https://www.politykainsight.pl/en/wec2023 https://www.politykainsight.pl/en/wec2023" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1663115367433097221) 2023-05-29T09:29Z 60.1K followers, [----] engagements "Many capitals including Berlin are therefore pushing for more qualified majority voting (QMV) stripping countries of their vetoes eg over tax policy & foreign affairs. But many capitals are opposed: this is fundamentally about their sovereignty which they want to preserve 7/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1676174211205718016) 2023-07-04T10:20Z 56K followers, 16K engagements "One solution cd be what officials describe as QMV safeguards (countries don't go against each others core national interests). But moving to more QMV wd require unanimity from leaders support of E Parl & no opposition from any national parliament - high hurdles to clear 8/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1676174213437112320) 2023-07-04T10:20Z 55.7K followers, 14.1K engagements "The last set of issues concern process required to put above reforms in place & get EU Ukraine ready. Wd treaty change be required Some officials argue it cd all be done under guise of Lisbon Treaty. Others believe an Intergovernmental Conference or Convention wd be needed 15/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1676174228897316864) 2023-07-04T10:20Z 55.7K followers, [---] engagements "The slow long march back to Europe continues" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1677789192229666816) 2023-07-09T15:23Z 56K followers, 25.6K engagements "Johnson Frost Cummings et al had an 80-seat majority delivering hardest form of Brexit possible with a full-fat Irish Sea border & clean regulatory break from EU They've had every opp to demonstrate Brexit can work & wasn't doomed to failure They failed. They're accountable" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1677973034659987457) 2023-07-09T09:28Z 61.9K followers, 133.8K engagements "Makes perfect sense. Macron pursuing goal of early post-war NATO membership for Ukraine. Even if that can't/won't happen right now given opposition in DC & Berlin it still makes sense to make that prospect appear as credible as possible" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1678308479319130117) 2023-07-10T07:42Z 55K followers, [----] engagements "I tell @MatinaStevis on Mark Rutte @MinPres: He was the leader who signified most explicitly how a small country can play a big role in Europe and yield disproportionate influence" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1678484036916854784) 2023-07-10T20:21Z 56K followers, 10.7K engagements "Sweden and Finland in NATO Next stop: Ukraine" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1678493561761722385) 2023-07-10T20:14Z 55.8K followers, 23.9K engagements "Reality is biting says a former cabinet minister. We are on for a massive defeat. We arent talking margins of error in opinion polls any more. The public are tuning out now. They are psychologically exhausted by this government. What did the Tories expect 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1678675833597095937) 2023-07-11T08:01Z 61.9K followers, 281.8K engagements "Their flagship policy (Brexit) goes fundamentally against the national interest - and they then crashed the economy for fun. Both have made life more difficult for millions of people Excellent long-read as you'd expect from @GeorgeWParker @LOS_Fisher" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1678675835866210306) 2023-07-11T08:43Z 56K followers, 37.9K engagements "Senior EU officials tell me some engineered tension at Vilnius was expected but they pleaded with Zelensky to "bend but not break the bow." Kyiv has invested a lot of pol capital in NATO can't give impression they're selling out for security guarantees" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1678851817579356166) 2023-07-11T19:41Z 56K followers, [----] engagements "The French and Macron are being short-sighted and narrow minded about this. They should see Fiona Scott Morton as a defector not a plant. At least give her a chance to prove her worth. Paris is getting no traction with other countries. Best give it up" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1681357310940135492) 2023-07-21T00:39Z [--] followers, 68.5K engagements "Inflation better than expected but doesnt change big picture. Interest rates will probs rise again in Aug. Core inflation still sticky. Political respite also incredibly temporary - three likely by-election losses on Thurs" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1681553532736905217) 2023-07-19T06:36Z 55.7K followers, [--] engagements "IMF just completed its Article IV assessment on health of UK economy. One of many things that struck me: "By [----] real business investment was still slightly lower than in [----] in contrast to the 14% increase observed among other G7 economies" Wonder what happened in [----] 🧐" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1681713132626903056) 2023-07-19T23:50Z 55.8K followers, 84.4K engagements "Overall in my humble opinion the Scott Morton saga suggests that the EU may be thinking big but its instincts remain small divided and defensive ENDS" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1681987883916316676) 2023-07-20T11:22Z 55.7K followers, 27K engagements ""Europe is lurching to the Right"" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1683214289455267842) 2023-07-23T21:15Z 55K followers, 24.1K engagements "The coup in Niger is a big defeat for President @EmmanuelMacron Africa policy. But it is a failure which has many causes and which has been many years in the making. It has serious potential consequences for the whole of the West not just for France 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1686727323934932992) 2023-08-02T13:15Z 55.7K followers, 169.3K engagements "Macron has expended more energy than any of his predecessors into trying to rebuild Frances relationship with Africa. He has made [--] visits to the continent in just over [--] years - one every [--] months 4/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1686727333128896513) 2023-08-02T13:15Z 55K followers, [--] engagements "Surprise. Brexit is a total shitshow. And has made and keeps making a total mockery of UKG Post-Brexit UK border food checks delayed again on inflation fears" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1686844094025199616) 2023-08-02T20:59Z 56K followers, 36.8K engagements "Despite his shortcomings Europe is one area where @RishiSunak has clearly demonstrated leadership - Windsor framework the reset with @EmmanuelMacron abandoning retained EU law Bill ditching UK CE safety mark & decision this week on EU import checks" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1687737163251646464) 2023-08-05T08:07Z 55.7K followers, 43.2K engagements "Great piece by @MESandbu. Critiques of the EU's democratic deficit remain stuck in time" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1690813900348878848) 2023-08-13T19:53Z 55.7K followers, 44.8K engagements "No shit Sherlock Beyond the economic damage leaving the EU has actually made it harder for the UK to control its borders and determine its own laws The UK enjoyed a stronger economy and more sovereignty as an EU member state than it does on the outside The irony of it all" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1691395602511253504) 2023-08-15T10:25Z 55.6K followers, 38.9K engagements "Yes inflation has come down largely as expected but core inflation remains high. Markets are still pricing peak interest rates just off 6%. So consumers are still feeling the pain - and will see more as the increase in mortgage rates continue to kick in" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1691721523160068128) 2023-08-16T08:00Z 55K followers, [----] engagements "Very interest piece. Does Russia however really accept these realities (Kyiv's eventual EU membership and Euro-Atlantic security guarantees)" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1692150176385778030) 2023-08-17T12:23Z 55.7K followers, 12.3K engagements "Excellent from @philipstephens "The little Englanders it turns out were right about one thing. The EU has changed profoundly during the past seven years. The forces however have been centripetal rather than centrifugal. Far from breaking up the EU is doing more. Lots more"" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1692181842160451746) 2023-08-17T14:29Z 55.7K followers, 29.8K engagements "This kind of reflexive disparaging of UK views on Europe is silly In *Germany* itself there is a deep & widespread sense of malaise & anxiety given the concern the economic downturn is not just cyclical but deeply structural .@TheEconomist is right to focus in on the issue" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1692210404947112318) 2023-08-17T16:22Z 55.9K followers, 62.1K engagements "Todays front-page splash in once-sensible @Telegraph encapsulates the hysteria disinformation & one-sidedness of coverage of Channel migrant crisis in rightwing UK press. Channel crossings are DOWN 17% this yr but DTel tells its readers France has stopped fewer migrants 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1692481471875862961) 2023-08-18T10:20Z 55.7K followers, 101.4K engagements "Good piece by @MAmdorsky on the political and policy challenges now facing @OlafScholz coalition as concerns grow over the outlook for the German economy. A big theme for the rest of this year" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1693506380341071982) 2023-08-21T06:12Z 55.7K followers, [----] engagements "Almost [--] years on from the Brexit referendum. and yet look at /sterling h/t @Louis_Ashworth @Sime0nStylites" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1694290931581587876) 2023-08-23T10:10Z 55.7K followers, 51.4K engagements "I thought theyd use novichok said a second former senior Kremlin official referring to the nerve agent used to poison Kremlin opponents such as ex-spy Sergei Skripal and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny. Theyve added something new to the menu" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1694608678622544307) 2023-08-24T07:12Z 56K followers, [----] engagements "On enlargement of the EU Macron has abandoned the traditional French reluctance to take in new member states. But he repeats and refines the old French belief in a Europe of concentric circles 10/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1695007757445804171) 2023-08-25T09:38Z 55K followers, [----] engagements "Europe should not be a monolithic block but have [--] tiers he says. These are a core EU bold enough to integrate further; the European single market; & the looser wider new European Political Community launched successfully by Macron last year (and joined even by the UK) 11/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1695007763762397562) 2023-08-25T09:38Z 55.7K followers, [----] engagements "Macron draws comfort from the advance of another of his ideas his belief in a Strategic Europe capable of making decisions to protect and promote economic interests and develop a defence policy within Nato 12/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1695007766388101196) 2023-08-25T09:38Z 55.6K followers, [----] engagements "But this approach must go further & create an aggressive industrial policy for new technologies from electric cars to AI. We cannot be a continent with one of the oldest populations one of the most generous social models and at the same time produce less than the others 13/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1695007768934047952) 2023-08-25T09:38Z 55K followers, [----] engagements "Good thing Sarko is no longer French President On Ukraines entry to the EU he said he did not think they belonged in the bloc: We are making false promises that will not be kept" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1695080493664862502) 2023-08-25T14:27Z 56K followers, [----] engagements "In the latest manifestation of "Global Britain" @RishiSunak decides he won't attend the UN General Assembly Too many problems on the home front" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1695171773984034839) 2023-08-25T20:30Z 55.6K followers, 75K engagements "My latest piece for @FT. On the overblown concerns about a far-right drift or takeover of the EU - whether nationally or in European elections next year The centre ground is on firmer ground than consensus suggests" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1696124237365252459) 2023-08-28T11:35Z 55.7K followers, 102.5K engagements "@simonjhix @anandMenon1 Thanks for this @simonjhix. What's the mainstream right & populist right formation you think will come together What's your basecase and with what level of conviction" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1696480048893607979) 2023-08-29T11:08Z 55K followers, [---] engagements "The old We won't have any influence if were not talking to them and will raise human rights in private line is back in vogue after the slight aberration of the @trussliz era (itself an aberration)" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1696541520134877649) 2023-08-29T15:13Z 56K followers, [----] engagements "The UK government has confirmed a fifth delay to the implementation of its post-Brexit border controls on food and fresh products as ministers admitted the new regime on EU imports would push up prices" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1696565019750682789) 2023-08-29T16:46Z 55K followers, [----] engagements "As if the UKG non response to the US' Inflation Reduction Act & EU's Recovery & Resilience Facility wasn't problematic enough" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1696642019223904532) 2023-08-29T21:52Z 55.7K followers, [--] engagements "The idea is by no means sure to fly but several ministers are urging Macron Le Monde says to organize a kind of state-run multiple-question opinion poll of the whole electorate on issues ranging from migration to institutional reform to security to the environment 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1696791999846735920) 2023-08-30T07:48Z 61K followers, 68.8K engagements "Voters would be asked to grade their response v. favourable favourable v. opposed etc - to a series of reforms. The outcome wouldnt be binding (& constitutional basis remains unclear). Idea being to defuse systematic parliamentary opposition to Macrons minority Govt 3/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1696792002795291063) 2023-08-30T07:48Z 55K followers, [--] engagements "Think this appointment is more about having a stronger team for the election than defence per se. Ukraine policy will remain unchanged - @RishiSunak will maintain strong support. Shapps seen as good communicator. Will do media ints beyond defence as Tories go on attack vs Lab 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1697168509741182985) 2023-08-31T08:44Z 55K followers, [----] engagements "As Defence a bigger job than Energy @grantshapps will have more clout. Sunak also wanted a loyalist who wouldnt constantly demand more money for defence (as Wallace did). Shapps was on Sunak's leadership campaign team 2/2" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1697168512807059913) 2023-08-31T08:44Z 56K followers, [----] engagements "Excellent piece Ukraine must win on the battlefield to survive as a state. Not only is this victory vital to Natos security and its ongoing relationship with Russia it will also influence Chinas appetite for military adventure" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1698232759116874203) 2023-09-03T07:13Z 55.6K followers, [----] engagements "How many reset opportunities do the Tories think they have The Tory conference is seen by Sunak as a vital moment for him to reset the government offering new policies to build on what he hopes will be a [----] economic rebound" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1699157386047480019) 2023-09-05T20:27Z 55.6K followers, [----] engagements "Long day @EurasiaGroup working on politics of Germany's economic slowdown Polish elections and Turkey. so late to this But see the long and slow march back to Europe continues" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1699530006706200856) 2023-09-06T21:08Z 56K followers, [----] engagements "Imp on US vs EU aid to Ukraine given lazy assumption about US being far more imp to Ukraine war effort Central role of EU esp clear given headwinds US funding likely to face bc of US election cycle. This also doesn't capture non-financial EU contribution on reforms/enlargement" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1700404896514658373) 2023-09-09T07:04Z 55.7K followers, 35.4K engagements ".@trussliz time in @10DowningStreet was outlived by a lettuce yet she still almost managed to crash the UK economy. What lessons could she possibly share Why isn't she embarrassed" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1700825922604068880) 2023-09-10T10:57Z 55.7K followers, [----] engagements "Market participants who puked all over her illiterate economic plan are considered by her to be a part of the global left Words fail me" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1700827248490688556) 2023-09-10T11:03Z 55.6K followers, [----] engagements "Small and medium-sized enterprises in the UK including many exporters are completely unprepared for an impending avalanche of new EU regulations and taxes according to a new business survey Maybe D Frost can run a workshop" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1700984247925039378) 2023-09-10T21:27Z 55.7K followers, 17.8K engagements "V imp scoop by @HenryJFoy This basically means the only remaining political barrier to opening accession negotiations with Kyiv in Dec is an internal EU one - ie can EU leaders agree to some high level language on need to reform EU to admit Ukr If yes this moves ahead" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1701492146132381944) 2023-09-12T07:05Z 56K followers, [----] engagements "Good investment by @EmmanuelMacron in @Keir_Starmer given a Lab Govt is a pretty high conviction basecase for next year. Also shows the Lab team are approaching the whole Europe question intelligently" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1701966782221750703) 2023-09-13T14:31Z 56K followers, [--] engagements "Theres a predictable avalanche of disinformation and hypocrisy in the DTel Sun etc today on @Keir_Starmer hopes of a migrant returns agreement with the EU if/when he becomes PM 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1702296679947358311) 2023-09-14T12:22Z 56K followers, 217.4K engagements "A deal with the EU is a sensible aim & Sunak's Govt also seeks one. It can only happen with give & take on both sides; Sunak/Braverman want EU to take migrants back; but they refuse to take a share of migrants arriving in EU a minority of whom are obsessed with reaching UK 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1702296682329706581) 2023-09-14T12:22Z 55.7K followers, 18.8K engagements "Germany yesterday suspended its quota of agreed asylum seekers from Italy because Italy is refusing to fulfill its part of the bargain that it should take back the many migrants/asylum seekers who cross Alps without permission. A similar dispute exists between Italy & Fr 5/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1702296690760241384) 2023-09-14T12:22Z 56K followers, [----] engagements "Arguably therefore Starmer is planning to join an EU system of migrant returns to first country of arrival which has already fallen apart. No doubt there will be an interesting discussion on this subject when Starmer visits @EmmanuelMacron in Paris next week 6/" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1702296693411107121) 2023-09-14T12:22Z [--] followers, 10.7K engagements "Macron is also facing domestic strife on plans for tougher action to remove some illegal migrants/failed asylum seekers and yet give job permits to others. There is an outside chance that issue could bring down his PM @Elisabeth_Borne this Autumn/winter 7/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1702296695998918891) 2023-09-14T12:22Z 55.9K followers, [----] engagements "So is it a daft idea for Starmer to seek a migrant deal with an EU which cant make its own internal deals stick No.A/ Because there is no alternative. B/ Because EU will have to re-think its approach in the coming months/years and the UK should be part of that discussion 8/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1702296698611998916) 2023-09-14T12:22Z 55.7K followers, 20.6K engagements "How many To be negotiated. Over [-----] arrived by small boats last year. It might be many fewer than that. It is a little reported fact that the arrivals are 20% down so far this year (just over 23000) 15/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1702296717331148930) 2023-09-14T12:22Z 55.7K followers, [----] engagements "All the same Starmer will have his work cut out. The present EU returns policy voluntary and Hungary/Poland refuse to take part is clearly in trouble. No point in the UKG joining a failing scheme 16/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1702296720095264839) 2023-09-14T12:22Z 55K followers, [----] engagements "From Starmers point of view everything is now about pragmatic outcomes rather than ideology. That extends to Europe. It's not about revisiting Brexit but looking at areas where it's in our national interest to co-operate. Thats where British people are" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1702973756845461909) 2023-09-16T09:12Z 56K followers, [----] engagements ""Britain became an intn'l joke in recent times in large part thanks to Conservative party which burnt through [--] PMs in [--] years. When The Economist ran a cover story headlined Welcome to Britaly there was a furious reaction to the comparison - in Italy"" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1702991632293920967) 2023-09-16T10:23Z 55.6K followers, [---] engagements "Expect more of this stuff from Labour. Incredibly basic yet so obviously important. Who ever thought it was a good idea NOT to have structured discussions with our allies in the EU" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1703141084342178197) 2023-09-16T20:17Z 55K followers, [---] engagements "Of course @UKLabour @Keir_Starmer will have to fix the Brexit deal Frost was totally out of his depth and negotiated a shite deal that has totally shafted large parts of the UK economy That was never going to be a sustainable equilibrium https://www.ft.com/content/6bdc4e88-c2ed-44ad-aa7d-c70bc358e027 https://www.ft.com/content/6bdc4e88-c2ed-44ad-aa7d-c70bc358e027" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1703526482075595157) 2023-09-17T21:48Z 61.2K followers, 107.3K engagements "No one on the Labour side strikes me as naive enough to believe you can deliver a political outcome via a technical process" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1703675163831624140) 2023-09-18T07:39Z 56K followers, [----] engagements "Would rather chew glass than listen to anything @trussliz has to say. Who cares She's totally discredited. The results on full display for everyone to see. Markets don't lie. Why isn't she embarrassed" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1703702662120612042) 2023-09-18T09:29Z 55K followers, 11K engagements "There's a lot of negativity about @Keir_Starmer trip to Paris today to see @EmmanuelMacron. A lot of @UKLabour is delusional & don't understand EU kind of thing. That it's all pointless given no CU no SM redlines. That's premature. There's also a positive case to be made 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704018628113309757) 2023-09-19T06:24Z 55.6K followers, 525K engagements "Firstly beyond what the UK can offer EU the value & importance of more consistent more serious & more forward-leaning engagement shouldn't be underestimated. There has been a total lack of UK political leadership vis EU & if Starmer delivers that it will build goodwill 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704018630826959143) 2023-09-19T06:24Z 55.6K followers, 45.3K engagements "Second it's good @Keir_Starmer is investing & bolstering his connection with Macron. UK/France relations were by far most damaged by @BorisJohnson & @trussliz. The party political links are also weaker say compared to Germany. So symbolism of visit won't be lost on French 3/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704018633662365939) 2023-09-19T06:24Z 55.7K followers, 21.2K engagements "It's true @UKLabour isn't going to redraw its redlines on CU & SM - yet. But it would be foolish to bet against that line changing over medium to longer term or extrapolate from what Starmer is saying today. A lot will depend on variables that'll only come into play later on 4/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704018636925546525) 2023-09-19T06:24Z 55.7K followers, 18.9K engagements "Like public opinion vis rejoin the growth outlook the strength of Labour's majority/its polling the state of Tories after their election defeat & time it takes them to recover debate/priorities in EU etc. What Starmer is actually saying is prob the least imp thing to watch 5/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704018641862234133) 2023-09-19T06:24Z 56K followers, 17.1K engagements "Ruling out CU/SM will arguably also give a Labour Govt political cover to do a lot else & quickly. As there's a lot UKG can offer: institutionalised foreign & security policy co-operation fish serious & substantive engagement w @EmmanuelMacron European Political Community 6/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704018644198453373) 2023-09-19T06:24Z 55.7K followers, 16.2K engagements "As I've previously said on here many times Ukraine's accession has the potential to completely transform the way EU deals with aspiring members. That in turn could create new possibilities for co-op & association - even with third countries - that aren't imaginable today 9/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704018652998127772) 2023-09-19T06:24Z 61.2K followers, 17.4K engagements "Lastly Starmer and Macron are likely to be quite (ideologically) compatible and it's wrong to suggest the meeting has no importance to Macron: for him it will also be a way of strenghening the centrist and progressive forces in Europe against the reactionary far right 10/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704018655623745861) 2023-09-19T06:24Z 55.7K followers, 14.9K engagements "So there's a lot that's in flux & a lot that has changed and will change (including EU's leadership after elections next June). With engaged UK pol leadership there's a case to be made that @UKLabour overall approach to EU will be greater than sum of its individual parts END" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704018658287055188) 2023-09-19T06:24Z 61.2K followers, 15.6K engagements "Suspect intention of @RishiSunak Govt was to leak this to distract media/public attention & steal thunder from @Keir_Starmer Paris trip" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704228695307612172) 2023-09-19T20:19Z 55.6K followers, [----] engagements "@CatioMiles Not the argument I made if that's what you're referring to. Lots of v serious Franco-Ger disagreements. On enlargement they're closer for now. Suspect that will change soon" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704229033796395127) 2023-09-19T20:20Z 55.2K followers, [--] engagements "I tell @pmdfoster If Starmer delivers consistent British engagement with the EU based more on shared values and less on domestic politics that will create goodwill which will then underpin the dynamic between the two sides across the board" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704232433342681181) 2023-09-19T20:34Z 56K followers, [----] engagements "Ford sums up industry reaction to Sunak's plans to dilute Net Zero: 'Our business needs three things from the UK govt: ambition commitment & consistency 'A relaxation of [----] would undermine all three.'" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704451711677403494) 2023-09-20T11:05Z 55.6K followers, 11.8K engagements "Leaving this here. With no hint of irony - as @RishiSunak dilutes Net Zero in an attempt to close the 20-point gap with Labour" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704754293016834121) 2023-09-21T07:07Z 55.7K followers, [----] engagements "I thought the EU's moral and substantive leadership had moved East As a senior French official told me months ago: Poland only champions Ukraine when its own interests aren't threatened" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704766168781734016) 2023-09-21T07:55Z 56K followers, [---] engagements "@ulrichspeck Not higher standards but consistent ones. Don't think the staunch supporter label works given the current context" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704776130811621442) 2023-09-21T08:34Z 55K followers, [---] engagements "Dont mention the B word. King Charles gave a warm & passionate speech on Franco-British friendship flanked by EU UK & French flags in the upper house of French parliament today. He didnt mention Brexit but there were clear hints about his feelings about [----] & all that 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704806082416197837) 2023-09-21T10:33Z 55K followers, 11.6K engagements "UK will always be one of closest allies & best friends of Fr the King said (in 1st speech by a British monarch to French parliament). The [--] countries were he said happier & more prosperous places bc so many thousands of their citizens now live in one anothers countries 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1704806088804078071) 2023-09-21T10:33Z 61.2K followers, [----] engagements "This is a very important moment for Labour fleshing out its post-Brexit Europe policy But prematurely ruling out dynamic alignment is not a good idea. It will put an immediate ceiling on how ambitious Labour can be on the economy and will almost certainly need to be reversed" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1705115446947537287) 2023-09-22T07:02Z 55.6K followers, 25.2K engagements "Like ships that pass in the nightFrance and the UK are on radically different courses in the battle against climate change after announcements by President @EmmanuelMacron tonight intended to reduce French carbon emissions by 108m tonnes a year by [----] 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1706355985298620839) 2023-09-25T17:12Z 55.6K followers, 61.2K engagements "UKG is pushing back carbon reduction targets &it's reported scaling down rail projects like HS2. France acc to Macron plan will produce 1m electric cars in the next 4y & spend 700bn on expanding or building fast regional commuter train networks in [--] French conurbations 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1706355988524081243) 2023-09-25T17:12Z 56K followers, [----] engagements "France now produces about [---] million tonnes of carbon a year compared to 544m tonnes in [----]. Macon said the rate of reduction had accelerated during his six years in office but needed to be even faster in the next [--] years to reach the target of 270m tonnes in [----] 4/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1706355994702311507) 2023-09-25T17:12Z 61.2K followers, [----] engagements "Meloni has gone out of her way to maintain good relations with EU & keep Italy on a broadly constructive economic path. She & her Finance Minister are acutely aware of risk of a shift in market sentiment So not overly worried by this - tho some will be" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1707136314078867899) 2023-09-27T20:53Z 55.7K followers, [--] engagements "A lot of fake outrage by @Conservatives over @Keir_Starmer comments on benefits of alignment/no divergence. I understand @RishiSunak also negotiated an alignment deal with EU at the time of Windsor Framework - but then bottled it because he was afraid of the hardliners in his Gov" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1707281659333083287) 2023-09-28T06:30Z 55.7K followers, 40.1K engagements "@toniroldanm @COdendahl I think picture is more nuanced. Large teams in Sec Gen now managing surveillance - just bc EU hasn't been good in past doesn't mean it can't/hasn't improved. On reforms - things are happening today that were unimaginable under CSRs - eg on public admin & judicial reforms in IT" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1707294957134831732) 2023-09-28T07:23Z 55.6K followers, [---] engagements "Agree. But even without a deal over EU fiscal rules (looking a lot less probable today compared to a few months ago) member states will still remain very constrained by bond markets. One reason why we're not overly worried about big fiscal slippage next yr - in Italy or elsewhere" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1707487195081080872) 2023-09-28T20:07Z 55.7K followers, [----] engagements "The Slovak elections are ofc imp but should be put into perspective & context. Like Orban Fico will likely - ultimately - fall into line with the EU consensus on Ukraine The much bigger challenge to EU unity is external - US elections - & if support from DC seriously wanes" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1707759387404550624) 2023-09-29T14:09Z 55.7K followers, [--] engagements "Germany [--] Elon Musk 0" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1707791978241429622) 2023-09-29T16:18Z 56K followers, 28.6K engagements "Mega scoop by @HenryJFoy - & not just because he quotes me These numbers come with a big health warning - need @EU_Commission fuller more comprehensive analysis. But illustrative cost of Ukraine's accession to EU in 2021-7 would be roughly 💥186bn💥 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1709440751170355282) 2023-10-04T05:30Z 56K followers, [---] engagements "@jfkirkegaard @HenryJFoy @EU_Commission Did you not see the health warning You're putting words into my mouth - it's one option among others" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1709484908651876489) 2023-10-04T08:25Z 60.6K followers, [---] engagements "Exhibit A is on going negotiations - instigated by UKG - to delay for [--] years 10% tariffs on electric vehicles trade that will bite for both sides on [--] January 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1709817495492682131) 2023-10-05T06:27Z 61K followers, 19K engagements "The EU is terribly divided. Within the Council. And within the @EU_Commission. Germany's economic outlook - cyclical & structural - isn't great and @Bundeskanzler coalition is already struggling to respond. Berlin is v focussed on not aggravating that economic picture further 3/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1709817498378408391) 2023-10-05T06:27Z 55.6K followers, 21.1K engagements "France is in the other corner: worried about the precedent of opening TCA in an ad hoc way. Won't it incentivise future @Keir_Starmer @UKLabour Govt to do same As I've previously written this is but one of many issues Fr & Ger aren't aligned on 4/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1709817502950211954) 2023-10-05T06:27Z 55K followers, 21.5K engagements "Differences in Council existed during 2016-2021. The difference then was @EU_Commission acted as a firewall - making sure member states saw the bigger picture the EU interest - to ensure UK out had a less better deal than in & to ensure EU economic interests were protected 5/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1709817507081601535) 2023-10-05T06:27Z 61.2K followers, 14.6K engagements "Today @EU_Commission is itself divided: Trade Commissioner @VDombrovskis wants a deal (DG Trade hates tariffs). @ThierryBreton doesn't. Breton like France wants to build EU value chains to deliver strategic autonomy - which they think a deal with the UK would cut against 6/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1709817511925928041) 2023-10-05T06:27Z 55.7K followers, 22.6K engagements ".@EU_Commission also hasn't had time to do proper economic analysis of EU interest re EVs. The result = competing econ assessments within Commission & how those sit relative to larger political considerations (I simplify: do we want to protect ourselves against UK or China) 7/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1709817514568351897) 2023-10-05T06:27Z 55K followers, 14.8K engagements "This is partly to do with political agenda EU is dealing with before yr-end: migration reform of EU fiscal rules mid-term review of EU budget & 50bn for Ukraine pol decision to open accession negotiations with Kyiv & agree need for intra-EU reforms to do so. It's A LOT 8/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1709817518376821169) 2023-10-05T06:27Z 55K followers, 10.4K engagements "The lack of a coherent EU line reflects a bigger issue in EU right now - no leadership. Both Macron & Scholz have v diff domestic pol contexts; big elections coming in Poland a diff orientation/Govt in Italy & vdL focussed on tactical electoral not strategic considerations 10/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1709817523913326943) 2023-10-05T06:27Z 55.6K followers, 16.4K engagements "This isn't the disciplined EU of [----]. As one senior EU source told me: a diff generation is now running Brexit & memories have faded. This reinforces my view that there's more scope for UK/EU relations - not just bc of @UKLabour Govt but bc of what's happening in Europe too END" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1709817527906238659) 2023-10-05T06:27Z 55.7K followers, 30.8K engagements "No France is not crawling with bed-bugs but they are proliferating as they are in all countries. Some foreign media coverage suggests its a cleanliness problem. That is false. The bugs are biting because insecticides which used to exterminate them are now (rightly) banned 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1709870972864483467) 2023-10-05T09:59Z 61.2K followers, 73.3K engagements "Events in Israel make clear the EU's impotence & inability to shape world around it. Irrelevant in Mid-East. Can't backfill US mil support if Ukr funding dries up. Can't sort Nagorno-Karabakh. Losing the Global South Didn't @vonderleyen want to run a Geopolitical @EU_Commission" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1711322914870395010) 2023-10-09T10:09Z 55K followers, 119.5K engagements "@CatioMiles @vonderleyen @EU_Commission Why does everything require a comparison to UK This is about the EU" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1711324781306409086) 2023-10-09T10:16Z 55.6K followers, [----] engagements "I understand Varhelyi had not informed nor consulted anyone when he made this announcement - not even @vonderleyen or his colleagues @EU_Commission. Hence the fallout we have witnessed today on EU's response to unfolding events in Israel and Gaza" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1711501670637535629) 2023-10-09T21:59Z 55K followers, 30.7K engagements "Senior EU source: His move is disgusting. Varhelyi has been trying to cut support to the Palestinian authority for a while now. He took advantage of the situation thinking no one would dare object. Despicable" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1711503378331709487) 2023-10-09T22:06Z 56K followers, [----] engagements "@AntonSpisak @CER_EU They want to win an election. Europe will be discussed I'm sure a lot once they are in power" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1711716620505096285) 2023-10-10T12:13Z 61K followers, [----] engagements ".@ThierryBreton puts @elonmusk on notice 24h before he must reply" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1711811387096211461) 2023-10-10T18:30Z 56K followers, 117.8K engagements "😂 Musk clearly doesn't understand how the EU - as a regulator much less a political entity - works It's for him to demonstrate compliance with the DSA. Not the other way around" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1711982642080444809) 2023-10-11T05:50Z 61.9K followers, 337K engagements "This Sunday's national election in Poland is going to be highly consequential for Poland and the EU. The race is incredibly tight so regardless of the outcome Poland is likely heading for very turbulent times indeed. Thread 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1712718696647385207) 2023-10-13T06:35Z 55.6K followers, 368.2K engagements "This would involve PiS consolidating the foundations of the illiberal regime theyve put in place since [----] clamping down on free media judiciary & local Govt. The liberal oppositions victory would pave the way for a different kind of experimentrolling back illiberalism 3/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1712718700984324448) 2023-10-13T06:35Z 61.2K followers, 13.4K engagements "There is a concern the election will be free but not fair. The public TV and state-controlled companies openly support PiS. The state owned Orlen oil company has artificially lowered petrol prices by [--] cents/2PLN to cut inflation and make voters happy 4/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1712718702980776322) 2023-10-13T06:35Z 56K followers, 14.2K engagements "Polands electoral law also favors the ruling party and votes in the countryside weigh more than those in big cities where the liberals are stronger 5/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1712718705019253208) 2023-10-13T06:35Z 55.6K followers, 11.4K engagements "Yet PiS popularity is waning. Inflation a poor economic outlook corruption & perception of ineffective Govt have taken a toll on the partys support.PiS may get 35-38%. In [----] it scored 43%. In the best case for it it will need deals with other partners to stay in power 6/" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1712718707896557800) 2023-10-13T06:35Z 55.7K followers, 11.2K engagements "Given growing concerns in EU capitals about @vonderleyen approach to Israel/Gaza senior EU officials are not excluding an extraordinary European Council to try and bring some order in" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1713204194004312561) 2023-10-14T14:44Z 55K followers, 45.9K engagements "Senior EU official: VdL has committed an error of such a strategic nature this will cost her very badly. She has damaged our entire outreach over months in the global south on the Russia/Ukraine conflict. She is endangering citizens of Europe who are held hostage" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1713209880029405338) 2023-10-14T15:07Z 61.9K followers, 564.1K engagements ". She is risking unleashing migratory flows and placing in danger security of diplomatic staff in the region and humanitarian aid workers. She has just killed any prospect of an MoU on migration with Egypt and the MoU on migration with Tunisia" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1713209882592120840) 2023-10-14T15:07Z 55.7K followers, 43.2K engagements ". She has got herself into something where the heads of states from the big countries dont want the EU showboating. She has undermined the UNSG and she has given political carte blanche for a massacre still to come. And it is driven primarily by her media obsession" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1713209886123679872) 2023-10-14T15:07Z 55.6K followers, 46.4K engagements "The EU doesn't have the highest credibility as a foreign policy actor but this is a fiasco on a scale we have never witnessed Suffice to say lots of very senior people in the member states and across the institutions are very very unhappy" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1713210046278996142) 2023-10-14T15:07Z 56K followers, 55.1K engagements "Special European Council called for Tues - to try and grip and impose some discipline and coherence into EU's approach over Israel/Gaza which has been a political and communications disaster" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1713274989963599988) 2023-10-14T19:26Z 55K followers, 54.4K engagements "Poland exit polls. Turnout 73% PiS [----] Civic Coalition31.6 Third Way [--] Left8.6 Konfederacja 6.2" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1713631193487278159) 2023-10-15T19:01Z 61.2K followers, 45.6K engagements "Exit polls in Poland point to a clear majority for the opposition. Based on these projections this is the end of PiS rule Liberal opposition - [---] seats PiS - [---] seats Konfederacja - [--] seats" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1713632433084473751) 2023-10-15T19:06Z 61.9K followers, 570.8K engagements "If Polish exit polls prove correct and the liberal opposition ultimately forms a Govt that is a massive boost for the EU - & Poland's role and influence within it" [X Link](https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1713640991687618677) 2023-10-15T19:40Z 55.7K followers, 49.1K engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@Mij_Europe Mujtaba RahmanMujtaba Rahman posts on X about ukraine, france, paris, greenland the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence countries finance travel destinations us election celebrities technology brands currencies social networks stocks automotive brands
Social topic influence ukraine #1318, france #2088, paris #1043, greenland, countries, germany, russia #3231, defence, in the, elon musk
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @emmanuelmacron @keirstarmer @vonderleyen @eucommission @borisjohnson @ft @uklabour @trussliz @pmviktororban @rishisunak @mlpofficiel @elysee @bundeskanzler @europarlen @politicoeurope @gabrielattal @gideonrachman @henryjfoy @michelbarnier @pmdfoster
Top assets mentioned Rally (RLY)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Overall we see chances of no-deal election imposed on Govt or ref as equally tied at this stage. A lot less likely: A50 extension (with no election/ref); MPs voting to prevent no-deal through revocation & accepted by Govt; or a new PM securing backing for tweaked deal ENDS"
X Link 2019-05-27T21:15Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"As one senior EU official says BJ showed "determination to get a deal done. That's why Merkel moved. If UK wanted a serious substantive relationship it would have been easier to allow something on Island of Ireland that wasn't bullet proof. One leak on dike would have been OK""
X Link 2019-09-06T15:26Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Our basecase is still a 1yr extension to the transition that will come at the very last minute next June. But we'll all probably have to go round the no deal circle all over again in the first half of next year 3/3"
X Link 2019-11-24T18:13Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@Rubble2012 Not an unfair point. But my point here is quite simple: we'd be wrong to assume reality will force a softening like it did with May's Govt. This is a divergence Govt. That will impact Govt's priorities & its assessment of trade-offs"
X Link 2019-12-31T12:10Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
".@tconnellyRTE is correct on this. But to be fair this has been clear from EU side since early/mid-Dec 8/ Member states and the Commission want to take May's commitments as the starting point when it comes to level playing field - ie at the very least non-regression clauses for labour and social standards environment climate change taxation and dynamic alignment for state aid 8/ Member states and the Commission want to take May's commitments as the starting point when it comes to level playing field - ie at the very least non-regression clauses for labour and social standards environment"
X Link 2020-01-14T22:31Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Which is strange. (EU) leaders who are implementing very strong containment measures even framing the Covid-19 crisis as war are benefiting in polling. Unclear what's driving @BorisJohnson hesitancy. Surely not econ impact/trade-offs"
X Link 2020-03-22T10:02Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Govt under pressure from @thesundaytimes piece. Expect detailed rebuttal from Govt later but they know these short-term issues will be subject to an inquiry. Ministers very worried that UK might end up worst in EU on what they privately describe as "league table of death." Ugh"
X Link 2020-04-19T09:15Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"The desire to restructure UK economy post Covid & gear it to "industries of future" is exactly why UK Govt might drive it off the EU cliff at the end of this year. No deal may seem counterintuitive to the rest of us but it's not for @BorisJohnson & a large number of Cabinet The key thing to understand is that for Boris Johnson this is no longer primarily a health but an economic crisis. My FT col https://t.co/1i2JjcfzWg https://t.co/QoDyINjgfK The key thing to understand is that for Boris Johnson this is no longer primarily a health but an economic crisis. My FT col https://t.co/1i2JjcfzWg"
X Link 2020-06-01T20:07Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Rightly or wrongly many at top of Govt - the Vote Leave gang - think only way to deliver on their substantive divergence agenda is via no deal. Only no deal fully delivers on their world view @pmdfoster @Mij_Europe Nobody ever wants no-deal. How far either side will go for a deal is always the question. We know roughly what the EU will settle for. UK no deal threats appear unconvincingly to try to change that. They won't. Question then is how far UK will move towards the EU position. @pmdfoster @Mij_Europe Nobody ever wants no-deal. How far either side will go for a deal is always the"
X Link 2020-06-10T12:06Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Covid-19 has shot Govt's short-term credibility. No deal would compound that. That's how Coronavirus & Brexit/trade talks are now interacting. Thinking was diff just a few weeks ago. From my perspective it's all politics ENDS"
X Link 2020-06-25T09:01Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Now the piece has disappeared @FT This article has been amended to remove an erroneous statement that no woman in a headscarf has carried out a terrorist attack in France and correct a mistranslation of Mr Macrons reference to Islamist separatism. This article has been amended to remove an erroneous statement that no woman in a headscarf has carried out a terrorist attack in France and correct a mistranslation of Mr Macrons reference to Islamist separatism"
X Link 2020-11-03T15:33Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Is it purely coincidental that this is happening now it's clear @JoeBiden has it BREAKING: Boris Johnson will hold a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday as they seek a Brexit trade agreement https://t.co/CLotWfCNrx https://t.co/o9xvcauOyR BREAKING: Boris Johnson will hold a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday as they seek a Brexit trade agreement https://t.co/CLotWfCNrx https://t.co/o9xvcauOyR"
X Link 2020-11-06T16:27Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Hear same. It's far from clear in the event of no deal that @BorisJohnson will drop controversial clauses in IM Bill in order to smooth relations with Washington The government will reinstate any parts of its international law-breaking Brexit legislation that are removed by the House of Lords a cabinet minister has vowed https://t.co/psaqbUTQae The government will reinstate any parts of its international law-breaking Brexit legislation that are removed by the House of Lords a cabinet minister has vowed https://t.co/psaqbUTQae"
X Link 2020-11-09T18:34Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@john_lichfield She did you a favour John. Totally thick"
X Link 2020-11-22T21:29Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
".@BorisJohnson hates detail & hates not pleasing people He has to do both to deliver a Brexit deal 😬"
X Link 2020-11-24T16:23Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Thankfully fully respect UK sovereignty is a relative & subjective concept"
X Link 2020-11-27T14:21Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Although @BorisJohnson & @vonderleyen will talk again at 5pm the utility of their calls is clearly diminishing Many on EU side worry that what @10DowningStreet is actually trying to do is sideline @EU_Commission - & force EU leaders to address Brexit impasse at Council on Thurs"
X Link 2020-12-07T13:53Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Ministers who are privately nervous about short-term disruption & medium long term economic impact of no deal - & there are many - need to speak up now Despite Cabinet backing @BorisJohnson publicly the majority don't buy his prosper mightily nonsense"
X Link 2020-12-11T07:51Z 61.1K followers, [----] engagements
"This had previously been ruled out By signalling this now Govt is attempting to show its growing comfort with no deal U.K. Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove said that Britain and the European Union could engage in a series of mini unilateral deals if no trade agreement is reached by the end of the month https://t.co/ErcoPvILSm U.K. Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove said that Britain and the European Union could engage in a series of mini unilateral deals if no trade agreement is reached by the end of the month https://t.co/ErcoPvILSm"
X Link 2020-12-20T10:37Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@LCreighton Yes. I'm just being annoying. Thx for seeing through it Lucinda"
X Link 2021-02-24T16:20Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Today the UK will become first major economy to begin to signal the pivot from stimulus to adjustment trying to chart a fiscal reset for a post-Covid world Govt will extend furlough but most imp part of Budget will be Sunaks language on future tax rises & detail he spells out"
X Link 2021-03-03T07:25Z 59.4K followers, [--] engagements
"May sought deeper relationship w/EU & was roundly humiliated by them. Officials on BOTH sides acknowledge this. Fr said Chequers was worse than no deal. Is it any wonder Johnson/Frost concluded only a tough approach can work HMG thinks EU has ended up w relationship it deserves"
X Link 2021-03-11T09:43Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
".@DominicRaab said: It is the EU that by trying to erect a barrier down the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and Great Britain that is challenging the spirit of Northern Ireland Protocol and the Good Friday agreement. 😭 😬 or 😂 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/17/dominic-raab-accuses-eu-of-trying-to-erect-irish-sea-border https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/17/dominic-raab-accuses-eu-of-trying-to-erect-irish-sea-border"
X Link 2021-03-17T21:07Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Crisis Macron is at 39% - at this point in Fr electoral cycle better placed than any of his recent predecessors (Hollande Sarkozy Chirac. ) to retake lyse next year When Le Pen seen as lesser evil French politics really is in crisis. When Le Pen seen as lesser evil French politics really is in crisis"
X Link 2021-04-02T09:53Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Key point in an excellent thread The gap between UK & EU will prob level out considerably this quarter given rapid scale-up we're seeing in continental Europe & delays now experienced in UK In terms of full vax/easing restrictions they'll basically be tracking one another Thirdly this is not just a French success. Most other EU countries are also vaxxing at high rates now that large supplies of Pfizer and to a less extent Moderna are available. Johnson and Johnson starts its one-jab rollout in the EU on [--] April. 7/12 Thirdly this is not just a French success. Most other EU countries are also"
X Link 2021-04-10T09:31Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"The most important vote today is Scotland's. Sleaze Covid & even Brexit will soon be dwarfed by @BorisJohnson biggest problem - how to preserve the UK. Officialdom is very (very) worried. Is there a plan Thread based on how I see things 1/"
X Link 2021-05-06T06:25Z 61.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Very skeptical Hartlepool will result in @Keir_Starmer changing @UKLabour (non) narrative policy stance on Europe In a FPTP electoral system what's the point in Lab delivering ever stronger majorities in areas where it already has them"
X Link 2021-05-07T10:02Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"The EU will soon adopt a code of conduct for how [--] should interact with UK. Will force a level of transparency co-ordination on EU capitals & their dealings with London Unprecedented for EU to do this with a 3rd country. Shows how little trust there is with at moment"
X Link 2021-06-03T07:28Z 61.9K followers, [----] engagements
"So @BorisJohnson tells DUPs Jeffrey Donaldson at PMQs that unless Govt sees progress on totally disproportionate way EU is implementing Protocol we will have to take the necessary steps to safeguard UK internal market & unfettered GB-NI trade"
X Link 2021-06-16T11:30Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Events in Afg of course make clear the need for HMG to build closer alliances with the EU But @BorisJohnson wants to ensure Brexit IS an issue at the next general election. So he (& many Tory MPs) will remain instinctively wary of closer links with the EU"
X Link 2021-08-30T16:37Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Elabe poll in Les Echos showing Macron UP [--] points to 37% approval their highest score for him for months [--] days after Paris Match/IFOP had him go down to 38% their lowest score for months. At least they're now more in line. BUT how weird are Fr polls https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle/sondage-exclusif-un-francais-sur-cinq-a-une-image-positive-deric-zemmour-1342781 https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle/sondage-exclusif-un-francais-sur-cinq-a-une-image-positive-deric-zemmour-1342781"
X Link 2021-09-02T15:40Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Nice new @pmdfoster handle "One of the worst hacks in SW1" 😂😭"
X Link 2021-09-03T13:51Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Frost "Brexit is not a thing in itself. It is not a choice to live in permanent confrontation with our. neighbours. Rather it is a 1st stage a necessary gateway through which this country had to pass in order to give us freedom" Are Ger Fr etc not free https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/lord-frost-speech-at-british-irish-association-4-september-2021 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/lord-frost-speech-at-british-irish-association-4-september-2021"
X Link 2021-09-04T13:24Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Its ironic said one EU diplomat. They talked about taking back control but they are letting products into Britain without any controls at all. Thats fine with us. https://www.ft.com/content/e32dda1b-7dbe-454e-ab32-3d80604df431segmentid=acee4131-99c2-09d3-a635-873e61754ec6 https://www.ft.com/content/e32dda1b-7dbe-454e-ab32-3d80604df431segmentid=acee4131-99c2-09d3-a635-873e61754ec6"
X Link 2021-09-14T21:15Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"As one Cabinet minister says privately the attitude of @BorisJohnson to everything - Protocol AUKUS COP26 etc is: It will be alright on the night. Until it isn't"
X Link 2021-09-20T07:30Z 61.9K followers, [----] engagements
"First time travelling to Bxl in [--] years. It took [--] mins to get through passport control check vaccine passport etc. I budgeted a 1.5h cushion 😭🤷🏽♂ #Outofpracticetravelling"
X Link 2021-10-03T06:52Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Among Brexiteer types there's a lot of Well the Poles are challenging and don't like the ECJ either Yes. And they stand to lose billions of in Covid-recovery financing as a result. Not sure it's the example the headbangers should be reaching for"
X Link 2021-10-11T15:22Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Worth noting that since the Protocol has been in place there have been NO rulings or pending cases before the ECJ"
X Link 2021-10-11T16:03Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"In Policy Exchange foreword Frost warns EU has behaved without regard to huge political economic & identity sensitivities in NI & . has destroyed cross-community consent in NI. Enforcement of Protocol has begun to damage GFA Big UKG push now to pile more pressure on EU"
X Link 2021-11-01T06:24Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"The UK is going to invoke Article [--]. They'll argue it's surgical - "it's only Articles [--] & 7" etc. But EU will (rightly) see it as nuclear I expect no intermediate step (tariffs). Just an immediate emergency EU Council & political decision to suspend the UK-EU trade deal 1/"
X Link 2021-11-05T07:13Z 61.9K followers, [----] engagements
"I'm surprised the Govt hasn't today triggered Article 16"
X Link 2021-12-08T11:31Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@ayeshahazarika 12.05"
X Link 2021-12-08T11:37Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Has @Elysee taken down EU flag under pressure from far-right opp Or do they think they had effect they wanted & leaving it longer wd be unhelpful Unclear it was v thought out. Will quickly b forgotten & another campaign quarrel will bury it. Going to be almost daily from now on"
X Link 2022-01-02T11:54Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Getting VERY hostile reactions to PMQs from Tory MPs. Think @BorisJohnson done this year My guess - after May local elections. View is Johnson is battered beyond repair but better he takes flak over econ & local elections But then the knife 🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪🔪"
X Link 2022-01-12T16:46Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Who is most likely to replace @BorisJohnson as PM Sunak Truss Mordaunt Hunt Sunak Truss Mordaunt Hunt"
X Link 2022-01-18T16:21Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Big breaking story here with obviously significant political & market implications. Folks haven't been paying attention because of Russia's war in Ukraine French elections etc but if @pmdfoster is right Article [--] is back in the political/policy mix - earlier than I suspected UK prepares law to give ministers power to tear up Northern Ireland post-Brexit trade deal my latest via @FT with @Sam1Fleming @jude_webber - thread tomorrow https://t.co/EnSuujzyvH UK prepares law to give ministers power to tear up Northern Ireland post-Brexit trade deal my latest via @FT with @Sam1Fleming @jude_webber"
X Link 2022-04-21T20:40Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"The final Opinionway tracking poll of the French presidential campaign gives Macron a [--] point lead - up [--] points on yesterday. He is shownas beating Le Pen on Sunday by 57% to 43% (only slightly less than the [--] point lead in the Ipsos tracker last night) 1/2"
X Link 2022-04-22T10:25Z 61.2K followers, [---] engagements
""UK has no populists in Parliament" @gideonrachman Not quite. - UK politics realigned with public opinion hence UK has no populists in Parliament - thats no small achievement and contrasts with France Germany Spain Italy etc - immigration now resumed but on terms that carry popular consent (points-based system) @gideonrachman Not quite. - UK politics realigned with public opinion hence UK has no populists in Parliament - thats no small achievement and contrasts with France Germany Spain Italy etc - immigration now resumed but on terms that carry popular consent (points-based system)"
X Link 2022-04-30T11:39Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"President @EmmanuelMacron today offered a sweeping vision of a new European Political Community - an outer circle of European states including Ukraine and the UK which would be linked to the EU but not part of it 1/"
X Link 2022-05-09T13:42Z 61.9K followers, [----] engagements
"HMG original line was: It's not the Protocol per se just the way the EU has chosen to implement it Now UK concern is no longer the operationalisation of the Protocol but the functioning of GFA institutions A much more extreme line. UKG wants Protocol gone not reformed"
X Link 2022-05-10T20:12Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Colonna is a career diplomat except for a spell as Jacques Chirac's lyse spokeswoman [--] years ago 2/2"
X Link 2022-05-20T12:53Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Not Nile but Nul Unbelievable: Macron appoints UK ambassador who blamed post-Brexit tensions on Britain as French foreign minister https://t.co/mtFVw82x8y Unbelievable: Macron appoints UK ambassador who blamed post-Brexit tensions on Britain as French foreign minister https://t.co/mtFVw82x8y"
X Link 2022-05-21T14:17Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Ugh. Horribly personal desperate stuff 🤮 1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July [----] when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks. 1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July [----] when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks"
X Link 2022-06-06T12:14Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@VJMallet @RNational_off I'm always right @VJMallet. Always"
X Link 2022-06-23T10:50Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"The leak of tens of thousands of Uber internal documents this wk showed Macron as econ minister went out of his way to help Uber disrupt Fr taxi monopolies from [----]. He made little secret of his support at time but Left & far right are accusing him of acting duplicitously 3/3"
X Link 2022-07-12T16:02Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"So Sunak vs Truss. Will be very close. She will start as favourite & is bookies favourite. But think Sunak will look the better bet for members as we go through process till Sept. Even in initial i/v Sunak bests Truss. But he faces a dirty horrid onslaught from the Right"
X Link 2022-07-20T18:40Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@jonhenley @AngelDarkmoore I blocked him J. Life's too short"
X Link 2022-07-25T21:10Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@Sime0nStylites @anandMenon1 @AyhamKamel V v soon. ☺. But I'll be w the little monster. I earned this"
X Link 2022-07-27T17:26Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@CRGMurray Not "everyone". Impatience will grow. More imp: what happens in a year No reason to believe a deal is easier then compared to today"
X Link 2022-09-15T09:03Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@CRGMurray Stalemate is basecase for this year but am not high conviction. Risk of escalation remains & grows next yr. On your first point: In Bxl there is a debate. On UK side many ppl close to Truss want to accelerate passage - which Govt cd easily do by accepting hostile amendments"
X Link 2022-09-15T09:12Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"EU side now very concerned about contagion risks UKG's fiscal actions pose to financial stability in the Eurozone Plenty of Euro area banks and insurance firms are exposed to UK gilts This is serious. EuropeanCommission is very worried. IMF is worried. White House is worried"
X Link 2022-09-29T06:53Z 61.9K followers, [----] engagements
"For those of us that cut our teeth through Greek debt crisis it was obvious more market pressure was likely would be relentless & that this is not a fight Truss & Kwarteng could ever hope to win. See no way back for Govt now given economic and political mess they've created 2/2"
X Link 2022-10-12T13:08Z 61.9K followers, [----] engagements
".@trussliz and @KwasiKwarteng promised Singapore on Thames and instead delivered Athens circa 2009"
X Link 2022-10-14T10:23Z 61.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Discussions at Westminster over replacing @trussliz remain a mess .@RishiSunak & @PennyMordaunt can't agree among themselves who'd be top dog; Sunak doesnt want to work for a PM Mordaunt & vice versa. @theresa_may ppl have even put her forward () as a possible unity candidate"
X Link 2022-10-18T18:53Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Sense in Westminster today is @trussliz is safe until after [--] Oct. @Jeremy_Hunt perceived to have done a good job yesterday. Tory MP's wary of doing anything that could destabilise him upsets markets before then"
X Link 2022-10-18T19:54Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Senior EU official: Can't go to bed. UK politics is better than @netflix right now"
X Link 2022-10-19T21:40Z 61.9K followers, [----] engagements
".@trussliz: Awful. Not sorry no recognition of mistakes & suffering she has caused"
X Link 2022-10-25T09:30Z 61.1K followers, [---] engagements
"Good to be back in Bxl to talk about. gas price caps Ukraine Hungary/Poland & RRF reform of EU fiscal rules Brexit European leadership/EU in [----]. Am I missing anything"
X Link 2022-11-27T21:02Z 61.1K followers, [--] engagements
"Great to be back in Warsaw. Last time must have been almost [--] years ago. Lots of excellent meetings and a great @PolitykaInsight @ecfr conference tomorrow exploring how the Ukraine war has (or has not) transformed the EU https://www.politykainsight.pl/en/wec2023 https://www.politykainsight.pl/en/wec2023"
X Link 2023-05-29T09:29Z 60.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Many capitals including Berlin are therefore pushing for more qualified majority voting (QMV) stripping countries of their vetoes eg over tax policy & foreign affairs. But many capitals are opposed: this is fundamentally about their sovereignty which they want to preserve 7/"
X Link 2023-07-04T10:20Z 56K followers, 16K engagements
"One solution cd be what officials describe as QMV safeguards (countries don't go against each others core national interests). But moving to more QMV wd require unanimity from leaders support of E Parl & no opposition from any national parliament - high hurdles to clear 8/"
X Link 2023-07-04T10:20Z 55.7K followers, 14.1K engagements
"The last set of issues concern process required to put above reforms in place & get EU Ukraine ready. Wd treaty change be required Some officials argue it cd all be done under guise of Lisbon Treaty. Others believe an Intergovernmental Conference or Convention wd be needed 15/"
X Link 2023-07-04T10:20Z 55.7K followers, [---] engagements
"The slow long march back to Europe continues"
X Link 2023-07-09T15:23Z 56K followers, 25.6K engagements
"Johnson Frost Cummings et al had an 80-seat majority delivering hardest form of Brexit possible with a full-fat Irish Sea border & clean regulatory break from EU They've had every opp to demonstrate Brexit can work & wasn't doomed to failure They failed. They're accountable"
X Link 2023-07-09T09:28Z 61.9K followers, 133.8K engagements
"Makes perfect sense. Macron pursuing goal of early post-war NATO membership for Ukraine. Even if that can't/won't happen right now given opposition in DC & Berlin it still makes sense to make that prospect appear as credible as possible"
X Link 2023-07-10T07:42Z 55K followers, [----] engagements
"I tell @MatinaStevis on Mark Rutte @MinPres: He was the leader who signified most explicitly how a small country can play a big role in Europe and yield disproportionate influence"
X Link 2023-07-10T20:21Z 56K followers, 10.7K engagements
"Sweden and Finland in NATO Next stop: Ukraine"
X Link 2023-07-10T20:14Z 55.8K followers, 23.9K engagements
"Reality is biting says a former cabinet minister. We are on for a massive defeat. We arent talking margins of error in opinion polls any more. The public are tuning out now. They are psychologically exhausted by this government. What did the Tories expect 1/"
X Link 2023-07-11T08:01Z 61.9K followers, 281.8K engagements
"Their flagship policy (Brexit) goes fundamentally against the national interest - and they then crashed the economy for fun. Both have made life more difficult for millions of people Excellent long-read as you'd expect from @GeorgeWParker @LOS_Fisher"
X Link 2023-07-11T08:43Z 56K followers, 37.9K engagements
"Senior EU officials tell me some engineered tension at Vilnius was expected but they pleaded with Zelensky to "bend but not break the bow." Kyiv has invested a lot of pol capital in NATO can't give impression they're selling out for security guarantees"
X Link 2023-07-11T19:41Z 56K followers, [----] engagements
"The French and Macron are being short-sighted and narrow minded about this. They should see Fiona Scott Morton as a defector not a plant. At least give her a chance to prove her worth. Paris is getting no traction with other countries. Best give it up"
X Link 2023-07-21T00:39Z [--] followers, 68.5K engagements
"Inflation better than expected but doesnt change big picture. Interest rates will probs rise again in Aug. Core inflation still sticky. Political respite also incredibly temporary - three likely by-election losses on Thurs"
X Link 2023-07-19T06:36Z 55.7K followers, [--] engagements
"IMF just completed its Article IV assessment on health of UK economy. One of many things that struck me: "By [----] real business investment was still slightly lower than in [----] in contrast to the 14% increase observed among other G7 economies" Wonder what happened in [----] 🧐"
X Link 2023-07-19T23:50Z 55.8K followers, 84.4K engagements
"Overall in my humble opinion the Scott Morton saga suggests that the EU may be thinking big but its instincts remain small divided and defensive ENDS"
X Link 2023-07-20T11:22Z 55.7K followers, 27K engagements
""Europe is lurching to the Right""
X Link 2023-07-23T21:15Z 55K followers, 24.1K engagements
"The coup in Niger is a big defeat for President @EmmanuelMacron Africa policy. But it is a failure which has many causes and which has been many years in the making. It has serious potential consequences for the whole of the West not just for France 1/"
X Link 2023-08-02T13:15Z 55.7K followers, 169.3K engagements
"Macron has expended more energy than any of his predecessors into trying to rebuild Frances relationship with Africa. He has made [--] visits to the continent in just over [--] years - one every [--] months 4/"
X Link 2023-08-02T13:15Z 55K followers, [--] engagements
"Surprise. Brexit is a total shitshow. And has made and keeps making a total mockery of UKG Post-Brexit UK border food checks delayed again on inflation fears"
X Link 2023-08-02T20:59Z 56K followers, 36.8K engagements
"Despite his shortcomings Europe is one area where @RishiSunak has clearly demonstrated leadership - Windsor framework the reset with @EmmanuelMacron abandoning retained EU law Bill ditching UK CE safety mark & decision this week on EU import checks"
X Link 2023-08-05T08:07Z 55.7K followers, 43.2K engagements
"Great piece by @MESandbu. Critiques of the EU's democratic deficit remain stuck in time"
X Link 2023-08-13T19:53Z 55.7K followers, 44.8K engagements
"No shit Sherlock Beyond the economic damage leaving the EU has actually made it harder for the UK to control its borders and determine its own laws The UK enjoyed a stronger economy and more sovereignty as an EU member state than it does on the outside The irony of it all"
X Link 2023-08-15T10:25Z 55.6K followers, 38.9K engagements
"Yes inflation has come down largely as expected but core inflation remains high. Markets are still pricing peak interest rates just off 6%. So consumers are still feeling the pain - and will see more as the increase in mortgage rates continue to kick in"
X Link 2023-08-16T08:00Z 55K followers, [----] engagements
"Very interest piece. Does Russia however really accept these realities (Kyiv's eventual EU membership and Euro-Atlantic security guarantees)"
X Link 2023-08-17T12:23Z 55.7K followers, 12.3K engagements
"Excellent from @philipstephens "The little Englanders it turns out were right about one thing. The EU has changed profoundly during the past seven years. The forces however have been centripetal rather than centrifugal. Far from breaking up the EU is doing more. Lots more""
X Link 2023-08-17T14:29Z 55.7K followers, 29.8K engagements
"This kind of reflexive disparaging of UK views on Europe is silly In Germany itself there is a deep & widespread sense of malaise & anxiety given the concern the economic downturn is not just cyclical but deeply structural .@TheEconomist is right to focus in on the issue"
X Link 2023-08-17T16:22Z 55.9K followers, 62.1K engagements
"Todays front-page splash in once-sensible @Telegraph encapsulates the hysteria disinformation & one-sidedness of coverage of Channel migrant crisis in rightwing UK press. Channel crossings are DOWN 17% this yr but DTel tells its readers France has stopped fewer migrants 1/"
X Link 2023-08-18T10:20Z 55.7K followers, 101.4K engagements
"Good piece by @MAmdorsky on the political and policy challenges now facing @OlafScholz coalition as concerns grow over the outlook for the German economy. A big theme for the rest of this year"
X Link 2023-08-21T06:12Z 55.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Almost [--] years on from the Brexit referendum. and yet look at /sterling h/t @Louis_Ashworth @Sime0nStylites"
X Link 2023-08-23T10:10Z 55.7K followers, 51.4K engagements
"I thought theyd use novichok said a second former senior Kremlin official referring to the nerve agent used to poison Kremlin opponents such as ex-spy Sergei Skripal and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny. Theyve added something new to the menu"
X Link 2023-08-24T07:12Z 56K followers, [----] engagements
"On enlargement of the EU Macron has abandoned the traditional French reluctance to take in new member states. But he repeats and refines the old French belief in a Europe of concentric circles 10/"
X Link 2023-08-25T09:38Z 55K followers, [----] engagements
"Europe should not be a monolithic block but have [--] tiers he says. These are a core EU bold enough to integrate further; the European single market; & the looser wider new European Political Community launched successfully by Macron last year (and joined even by the UK) 11/"
X Link 2023-08-25T09:38Z 55.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Macron draws comfort from the advance of another of his ideas his belief in a Strategic Europe capable of making decisions to protect and promote economic interests and develop a defence policy within Nato 12/"
X Link 2023-08-25T09:38Z 55.6K followers, [----] engagements
"But this approach must go further & create an aggressive industrial policy for new technologies from electric cars to AI. We cannot be a continent with one of the oldest populations one of the most generous social models and at the same time produce less than the others 13/"
X Link 2023-08-25T09:38Z 55K followers, [----] engagements
"Good thing Sarko is no longer French President On Ukraines entry to the EU he said he did not think they belonged in the bloc: We are making false promises that will not be kept"
X Link 2023-08-25T14:27Z 56K followers, [----] engagements
"In the latest manifestation of "Global Britain" @RishiSunak decides he won't attend the UN General Assembly Too many problems on the home front"
X Link 2023-08-25T20:30Z 55.6K followers, 75K engagements
"My latest piece for @FT. On the overblown concerns about a far-right drift or takeover of the EU - whether nationally or in European elections next year The centre ground is on firmer ground than consensus suggests"
X Link 2023-08-28T11:35Z 55.7K followers, 102.5K engagements
"@simonjhix @anandMenon1 Thanks for this @simonjhix. What's the mainstream right & populist right formation you think will come together What's your basecase and with what level of conviction"
X Link 2023-08-29T11:08Z 55K followers, [---] engagements
"The old We won't have any influence if were not talking to them and will raise human rights in private line is back in vogue after the slight aberration of the @trussliz era (itself an aberration)"
X Link 2023-08-29T15:13Z 56K followers, [----] engagements
"The UK government has confirmed a fifth delay to the implementation of its post-Brexit border controls on food and fresh products as ministers admitted the new regime on EU imports would push up prices"
X Link 2023-08-29T16:46Z 55K followers, [----] engagements
"As if the UKG non response to the US' Inflation Reduction Act & EU's Recovery & Resilience Facility wasn't problematic enough"
X Link 2023-08-29T21:52Z 55.7K followers, [--] engagements
"The idea is by no means sure to fly but several ministers are urging Macron Le Monde says to organize a kind of state-run multiple-question opinion poll of the whole electorate on issues ranging from migration to institutional reform to security to the environment 2/"
X Link 2023-08-30T07:48Z 61K followers, 68.8K engagements
"Voters would be asked to grade their response v. favourable favourable v. opposed etc - to a series of reforms. The outcome wouldnt be binding (& constitutional basis remains unclear). Idea being to defuse systematic parliamentary opposition to Macrons minority Govt 3/"
X Link 2023-08-30T07:48Z 55K followers, [--] engagements
"Think this appointment is more about having a stronger team for the election than defence per se. Ukraine policy will remain unchanged - @RishiSunak will maintain strong support. Shapps seen as good communicator. Will do media ints beyond defence as Tories go on attack vs Lab 1/"
X Link 2023-08-31T08:44Z 55K followers, [----] engagements
"As Defence a bigger job than Energy @grantshapps will have more clout. Sunak also wanted a loyalist who wouldnt constantly demand more money for defence (as Wallace did). Shapps was on Sunak's leadership campaign team 2/2"
X Link 2023-08-31T08:44Z 56K followers, [----] engagements
"Excellent piece Ukraine must win on the battlefield to survive as a state. Not only is this victory vital to Natos security and its ongoing relationship with Russia it will also influence Chinas appetite for military adventure"
X Link 2023-09-03T07:13Z 55.6K followers, [----] engagements
"How many reset opportunities do the Tories think they have The Tory conference is seen by Sunak as a vital moment for him to reset the government offering new policies to build on what he hopes will be a [----] economic rebound"
X Link 2023-09-05T20:27Z 55.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Long day @EurasiaGroup working on politics of Germany's economic slowdown Polish elections and Turkey. so late to this But see the long and slow march back to Europe continues"
X Link 2023-09-06T21:08Z 56K followers, [----] engagements
"Imp on US vs EU aid to Ukraine given lazy assumption about US being far more imp to Ukraine war effort Central role of EU esp clear given headwinds US funding likely to face bc of US election cycle. This also doesn't capture non-financial EU contribution on reforms/enlargement"
X Link 2023-09-09T07:04Z 55.7K followers, 35.4K engagements
".@trussliz time in @10DowningStreet was outlived by a lettuce yet she still almost managed to crash the UK economy. What lessons could she possibly share Why isn't she embarrassed"
X Link 2023-09-10T10:57Z 55.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Market participants who puked all over her illiterate economic plan are considered by her to be a part of the global left Words fail me"
X Link 2023-09-10T11:03Z 55.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Small and medium-sized enterprises in the UK including many exporters are completely unprepared for an impending avalanche of new EU regulations and taxes according to a new business survey Maybe D Frost can run a workshop"
X Link 2023-09-10T21:27Z 55.7K followers, 17.8K engagements
"V imp scoop by @HenryJFoy This basically means the only remaining political barrier to opening accession negotiations with Kyiv in Dec is an internal EU one - ie can EU leaders agree to some high level language on need to reform EU to admit Ukr If yes this moves ahead"
X Link 2023-09-12T07:05Z 56K followers, [----] engagements
"Good investment by @EmmanuelMacron in @Keir_Starmer given a Lab Govt is a pretty high conviction basecase for next year. Also shows the Lab team are approaching the whole Europe question intelligently"
X Link 2023-09-13T14:31Z 56K followers, [--] engagements
"Theres a predictable avalanche of disinformation and hypocrisy in the DTel Sun etc today on @Keir_Starmer hopes of a migrant returns agreement with the EU if/when he becomes PM 1/"
X Link 2023-09-14T12:22Z 56K followers, 217.4K engagements
"A deal with the EU is a sensible aim & Sunak's Govt also seeks one. It can only happen with give & take on both sides; Sunak/Braverman want EU to take migrants back; but they refuse to take a share of migrants arriving in EU a minority of whom are obsessed with reaching UK 2/"
X Link 2023-09-14T12:22Z 55.7K followers, 18.8K engagements
"Germany yesterday suspended its quota of agreed asylum seekers from Italy because Italy is refusing to fulfill its part of the bargain that it should take back the many migrants/asylum seekers who cross Alps without permission. A similar dispute exists between Italy & Fr 5/"
X Link 2023-09-14T12:22Z 56K followers, [----] engagements
"Arguably therefore Starmer is planning to join an EU system of migrant returns to first country of arrival which has already fallen apart. No doubt there will be an interesting discussion on this subject when Starmer visits @EmmanuelMacron in Paris next week 6/"
X Link 2023-09-14T12:22Z [--] followers, 10.7K engagements
"Macron is also facing domestic strife on plans for tougher action to remove some illegal migrants/failed asylum seekers and yet give job permits to others. There is an outside chance that issue could bring down his PM @Elisabeth_Borne this Autumn/winter 7/"
X Link 2023-09-14T12:22Z 55.9K followers, [----] engagements
"So is it a daft idea for Starmer to seek a migrant deal with an EU which cant make its own internal deals stick No.A/ Because there is no alternative. B/ Because EU will have to re-think its approach in the coming months/years and the UK should be part of that discussion 8/"
X Link 2023-09-14T12:22Z 55.7K followers, 20.6K engagements
"How many To be negotiated. Over [-----] arrived by small boats last year. It might be many fewer than that. It is a little reported fact that the arrivals are 20% down so far this year (just over 23000) 15/"
X Link 2023-09-14T12:22Z 55.7K followers, [----] engagements
"All the same Starmer will have his work cut out. The present EU returns policy voluntary and Hungary/Poland refuse to take part is clearly in trouble. No point in the UKG joining a failing scheme 16/"
X Link 2023-09-14T12:22Z 55K followers, [----] engagements
"From Starmers point of view everything is now about pragmatic outcomes rather than ideology. That extends to Europe. It's not about revisiting Brexit but looking at areas where it's in our national interest to co-operate. Thats where British people are"
X Link 2023-09-16T09:12Z 56K followers, [----] engagements
""Britain became an intn'l joke in recent times in large part thanks to Conservative party which burnt through [--] PMs in [--] years. When The Economist ran a cover story headlined Welcome to Britaly there was a furious reaction to the comparison - in Italy""
X Link 2023-09-16T10:23Z 55.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Expect more of this stuff from Labour. Incredibly basic yet so obviously important. Who ever thought it was a good idea NOT to have structured discussions with our allies in the EU"
X Link 2023-09-16T20:17Z 55K followers, [---] engagements
"Of course @UKLabour @Keir_Starmer will have to fix the Brexit deal Frost was totally out of his depth and negotiated a shite deal that has totally shafted large parts of the UK economy That was never going to be a sustainable equilibrium https://www.ft.com/content/6bdc4e88-c2ed-44ad-aa7d-c70bc358e027 https://www.ft.com/content/6bdc4e88-c2ed-44ad-aa7d-c70bc358e027"
X Link 2023-09-17T21:48Z 61.2K followers, 107.3K engagements
"No one on the Labour side strikes me as naive enough to believe you can deliver a political outcome via a technical process"
X Link 2023-09-18T07:39Z 56K followers, [----] engagements
"Would rather chew glass than listen to anything @trussliz has to say. Who cares She's totally discredited. The results on full display for everyone to see. Markets don't lie. Why isn't she embarrassed"
X Link 2023-09-18T09:29Z 55K followers, 11K engagements
"There's a lot of negativity about @Keir_Starmer trip to Paris today to see @EmmanuelMacron. A lot of @UKLabour is delusional & don't understand EU kind of thing. That it's all pointless given no CU no SM redlines. That's premature. There's also a positive case to be made 1/"
X Link 2023-09-19T06:24Z 55.6K followers, 525K engagements
"Firstly beyond what the UK can offer EU the value & importance of more consistent more serious & more forward-leaning engagement shouldn't be underestimated. There has been a total lack of UK political leadership vis EU & if Starmer delivers that it will build goodwill 2/"
X Link 2023-09-19T06:24Z 55.6K followers, 45.3K engagements
"Second it's good @Keir_Starmer is investing & bolstering his connection with Macron. UK/France relations were by far most damaged by @BorisJohnson & @trussliz. The party political links are also weaker say compared to Germany. So symbolism of visit won't be lost on French 3/"
X Link 2023-09-19T06:24Z 55.7K followers, 21.2K engagements
"It's true @UKLabour isn't going to redraw its redlines on CU & SM - yet. But it would be foolish to bet against that line changing over medium to longer term or extrapolate from what Starmer is saying today. A lot will depend on variables that'll only come into play later on 4/"
X Link 2023-09-19T06:24Z 55.7K followers, 18.9K engagements
"Like public opinion vis rejoin the growth outlook the strength of Labour's majority/its polling the state of Tories after their election defeat & time it takes them to recover debate/priorities in EU etc. What Starmer is actually saying is prob the least imp thing to watch 5/"
X Link 2023-09-19T06:24Z 56K followers, 17.1K engagements
"Ruling out CU/SM will arguably also give a Labour Govt political cover to do a lot else & quickly. As there's a lot UKG can offer: institutionalised foreign & security policy co-operation fish serious & substantive engagement w @EmmanuelMacron European Political Community 6/"
X Link 2023-09-19T06:24Z 55.7K followers, 16.2K engagements
"As I've previously said on here many times Ukraine's accession has the potential to completely transform the way EU deals with aspiring members. That in turn could create new possibilities for co-op & association - even with third countries - that aren't imaginable today 9/"
X Link 2023-09-19T06:24Z 61.2K followers, 17.4K engagements
"Lastly Starmer and Macron are likely to be quite (ideologically) compatible and it's wrong to suggest the meeting has no importance to Macron: for him it will also be a way of strenghening the centrist and progressive forces in Europe against the reactionary far right 10/"
X Link 2023-09-19T06:24Z 55.7K followers, 14.9K engagements
"So there's a lot that's in flux & a lot that has changed and will change (including EU's leadership after elections next June). With engaged UK pol leadership there's a case to be made that @UKLabour overall approach to EU will be greater than sum of its individual parts END"
X Link 2023-09-19T06:24Z 61.2K followers, 15.6K engagements
"Suspect intention of @RishiSunak Govt was to leak this to distract media/public attention & steal thunder from @Keir_Starmer Paris trip"
X Link 2023-09-19T20:19Z 55.6K followers, [----] engagements
"@CatioMiles Not the argument I made if that's what you're referring to. Lots of v serious Franco-Ger disagreements. On enlargement they're closer for now. Suspect that will change soon"
X Link 2023-09-19T20:20Z 55.2K followers, [--] engagements
"I tell @pmdfoster If Starmer delivers consistent British engagement with the EU based more on shared values and less on domestic politics that will create goodwill which will then underpin the dynamic between the two sides across the board"
X Link 2023-09-19T20:34Z 56K followers, [----] engagements
"Ford sums up industry reaction to Sunak's plans to dilute Net Zero: 'Our business needs three things from the UK govt: ambition commitment & consistency 'A relaxation of [----] would undermine all three.'"
X Link 2023-09-20T11:05Z 55.6K followers, 11.8K engagements
"Leaving this here. With no hint of irony - as @RishiSunak dilutes Net Zero in an attempt to close the 20-point gap with Labour"
X Link 2023-09-21T07:07Z 55.7K followers, [----] engagements
"I thought the EU's moral and substantive leadership had moved East As a senior French official told me months ago: Poland only champions Ukraine when its own interests aren't threatened"
X Link 2023-09-21T07:55Z 56K followers, [---] engagements
"@ulrichspeck Not higher standards but consistent ones. Don't think the staunch supporter label works given the current context"
X Link 2023-09-21T08:34Z 55K followers, [---] engagements
"Dont mention the B word. King Charles gave a warm & passionate speech on Franco-British friendship flanked by EU UK & French flags in the upper house of French parliament today. He didnt mention Brexit but there were clear hints about his feelings about [----] & all that 1/"
X Link 2023-09-21T10:33Z 55K followers, 11.6K engagements
"UK will always be one of closest allies & best friends of Fr the King said (in 1st speech by a British monarch to French parliament). The [--] countries were he said happier & more prosperous places bc so many thousands of their citizens now live in one anothers countries 2/"
X Link 2023-09-21T10:33Z 61.2K followers, [----] engagements
"This is a very important moment for Labour fleshing out its post-Brexit Europe policy But prematurely ruling out dynamic alignment is not a good idea. It will put an immediate ceiling on how ambitious Labour can be on the economy and will almost certainly need to be reversed"
X Link 2023-09-22T07:02Z 55.6K followers, 25.2K engagements
"Like ships that pass in the nightFrance and the UK are on radically different courses in the battle against climate change after announcements by President @EmmanuelMacron tonight intended to reduce French carbon emissions by 108m tonnes a year by [----] 1/"
X Link 2023-09-25T17:12Z 55.6K followers, 61.2K engagements
"UKG is pushing back carbon reduction targets &it's reported scaling down rail projects like HS2. France acc to Macron plan will produce 1m electric cars in the next 4y & spend 700bn on expanding or building fast regional commuter train networks in [--] French conurbations 2/"
X Link 2023-09-25T17:12Z 56K followers, [----] engagements
"France now produces about [---] million tonnes of carbon a year compared to 544m tonnes in [----]. Macon said the rate of reduction had accelerated during his six years in office but needed to be even faster in the next [--] years to reach the target of 270m tonnes in [----] 4/"
X Link 2023-09-25T17:12Z 61.2K followers, [----] engagements
"Meloni has gone out of her way to maintain good relations with EU & keep Italy on a broadly constructive economic path. She & her Finance Minister are acutely aware of risk of a shift in market sentiment So not overly worried by this - tho some will be"
X Link 2023-09-27T20:53Z 55.7K followers, [--] engagements
"A lot of fake outrage by @Conservatives over @Keir_Starmer comments on benefits of alignment/no divergence. I understand @RishiSunak also negotiated an alignment deal with EU at the time of Windsor Framework - but then bottled it because he was afraid of the hardliners in his Gov"
X Link 2023-09-28T06:30Z 55.7K followers, 40.1K engagements
"@toniroldanm @COdendahl I think picture is more nuanced. Large teams in Sec Gen now managing surveillance - just bc EU hasn't been good in past doesn't mean it can't/hasn't improved. On reforms - things are happening today that were unimaginable under CSRs - eg on public admin & judicial reforms in IT"
X Link 2023-09-28T07:23Z 55.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Agree. But even without a deal over EU fiscal rules (looking a lot less probable today compared to a few months ago) member states will still remain very constrained by bond markets. One reason why we're not overly worried about big fiscal slippage next yr - in Italy or elsewhere"
X Link 2023-09-28T20:07Z 55.7K followers, [----] engagements
"The Slovak elections are ofc imp but should be put into perspective & context. Like Orban Fico will likely - ultimately - fall into line with the EU consensus on Ukraine The much bigger challenge to EU unity is external - US elections - & if support from DC seriously wanes"
X Link 2023-09-29T14:09Z 55.7K followers, [--] engagements
"Germany [--] Elon Musk 0"
X Link 2023-09-29T16:18Z 56K followers, 28.6K engagements
"Mega scoop by @HenryJFoy - & not just because he quotes me These numbers come with a big health warning - need @EU_Commission fuller more comprehensive analysis. But illustrative cost of Ukraine's accession to EU in 2021-7 would be roughly 💥186bn💥 1/"
X Link 2023-10-04T05:30Z 56K followers, [---] engagements
"@jfkirkegaard @HenryJFoy @EU_Commission Did you not see the health warning You're putting words into my mouth - it's one option among others"
X Link 2023-10-04T08:25Z 60.6K followers, [---] engagements
"Exhibit A is on going negotiations - instigated by UKG - to delay for [--] years 10% tariffs on electric vehicles trade that will bite for both sides on [--] January 2/"
X Link 2023-10-05T06:27Z 61K followers, 19K engagements
"The EU is terribly divided. Within the Council. And within the @EU_Commission. Germany's economic outlook - cyclical & structural - isn't great and @Bundeskanzler coalition is already struggling to respond. Berlin is v focussed on not aggravating that economic picture further 3/"
X Link 2023-10-05T06:27Z 55.6K followers, 21.1K engagements
"France is in the other corner: worried about the precedent of opening TCA in an ad hoc way. Won't it incentivise future @Keir_Starmer @UKLabour Govt to do same As I've previously written this is but one of many issues Fr & Ger aren't aligned on 4/"
X Link 2023-10-05T06:27Z 55K followers, 21.5K engagements
"Differences in Council existed during 2016-2021. The difference then was @EU_Commission acted as a firewall - making sure member states saw the bigger picture the EU interest - to ensure UK out had a less better deal than in & to ensure EU economic interests were protected 5/"
X Link 2023-10-05T06:27Z 61.2K followers, 14.6K engagements
"Today @EU_Commission is itself divided: Trade Commissioner @VDombrovskis wants a deal (DG Trade hates tariffs). @ThierryBreton doesn't. Breton like France wants to build EU value chains to deliver strategic autonomy - which they think a deal with the UK would cut against 6/"
X Link 2023-10-05T06:27Z 55.7K followers, 22.6K engagements
".@EU_Commission also hasn't had time to do proper economic analysis of EU interest re EVs. The result = competing econ assessments within Commission & how those sit relative to larger political considerations (I simplify: do we want to protect ourselves against UK or China) 7/"
X Link 2023-10-05T06:27Z 55K followers, 14.8K engagements
"This is partly to do with political agenda EU is dealing with before yr-end: migration reform of EU fiscal rules mid-term review of EU budget & 50bn for Ukraine pol decision to open accession negotiations with Kyiv & agree need for intra-EU reforms to do so. It's A LOT 8/"
X Link 2023-10-05T06:27Z 55K followers, 10.4K engagements
"The lack of a coherent EU line reflects a bigger issue in EU right now - no leadership. Both Macron & Scholz have v diff domestic pol contexts; big elections coming in Poland a diff orientation/Govt in Italy & vdL focussed on tactical electoral not strategic considerations 10/"
X Link 2023-10-05T06:27Z 55.6K followers, 16.4K engagements
"This isn't the disciplined EU of [----]. As one senior EU source told me: a diff generation is now running Brexit & memories have faded. This reinforces my view that there's more scope for UK/EU relations - not just bc of @UKLabour Govt but bc of what's happening in Europe too END"
X Link 2023-10-05T06:27Z 55.7K followers, 30.8K engagements
"No France is not crawling with bed-bugs but they are proliferating as they are in all countries. Some foreign media coverage suggests its a cleanliness problem. That is false. The bugs are biting because insecticides which used to exterminate them are now (rightly) banned 1/"
X Link 2023-10-05T09:59Z 61.2K followers, 73.3K engagements
"Events in Israel make clear the EU's impotence & inability to shape world around it. Irrelevant in Mid-East. Can't backfill US mil support if Ukr funding dries up. Can't sort Nagorno-Karabakh. Losing the Global South Didn't @vonderleyen want to run a Geopolitical @EU_Commission"
X Link 2023-10-09T10:09Z 55K followers, 119.5K engagements
"@CatioMiles @vonderleyen @EU_Commission Why does everything require a comparison to UK This is about the EU"
X Link 2023-10-09T10:16Z 55.6K followers, [----] engagements
"I understand Varhelyi had not informed nor consulted anyone when he made this announcement - not even @vonderleyen or his colleagues @EU_Commission. Hence the fallout we have witnessed today on EU's response to unfolding events in Israel and Gaza"
X Link 2023-10-09T21:59Z 55K followers, 30.7K engagements
"Senior EU source: His move is disgusting. Varhelyi has been trying to cut support to the Palestinian authority for a while now. He took advantage of the situation thinking no one would dare object. Despicable"
X Link 2023-10-09T22:06Z 56K followers, [----] engagements
"@AntonSpisak @CER_EU They want to win an election. Europe will be discussed I'm sure a lot once they are in power"
X Link 2023-10-10T12:13Z 61K followers, [----] engagements
".@ThierryBreton puts @elonmusk on notice 24h before he must reply"
X Link 2023-10-10T18:30Z 56K followers, 117.8K engagements
"😂 Musk clearly doesn't understand how the EU - as a regulator much less a political entity - works It's for him to demonstrate compliance with the DSA. Not the other way around"
X Link 2023-10-11T05:50Z 61.9K followers, 337K engagements
"This Sunday's national election in Poland is going to be highly consequential for Poland and the EU. The race is incredibly tight so regardless of the outcome Poland is likely heading for very turbulent times indeed. Thread 1/"
X Link 2023-10-13T06:35Z 55.6K followers, 368.2K engagements
"This would involve PiS consolidating the foundations of the illiberal regime theyve put in place since [----] clamping down on free media judiciary & local Govt. The liberal oppositions victory would pave the way for a different kind of experimentrolling back illiberalism 3/"
X Link 2023-10-13T06:35Z 61.2K followers, 13.4K engagements
"There is a concern the election will be free but not fair. The public TV and state-controlled companies openly support PiS. The state owned Orlen oil company has artificially lowered petrol prices by [--] cents/2PLN to cut inflation and make voters happy 4/"
X Link 2023-10-13T06:35Z 56K followers, 14.2K engagements
"Polands electoral law also favors the ruling party and votes in the countryside weigh more than those in big cities where the liberals are stronger 5/"
X Link 2023-10-13T06:35Z 55.6K followers, 11.4K engagements
"Yet PiS popularity is waning. Inflation a poor economic outlook corruption & perception of ineffective Govt have taken a toll on the partys support.PiS may get 35-38%. In [----] it scored 43%. In the best case for it it will need deals with other partners to stay in power 6/"
X Link 2023-10-13T06:35Z 55.7K followers, 11.2K engagements
"Given growing concerns in EU capitals about @vonderleyen approach to Israel/Gaza senior EU officials are not excluding an extraordinary European Council to try and bring some order in"
X Link 2023-10-14T14:44Z 55K followers, 45.9K engagements
"Senior EU official: VdL has committed an error of such a strategic nature this will cost her very badly. She has damaged our entire outreach over months in the global south on the Russia/Ukraine conflict. She is endangering citizens of Europe who are held hostage"
X Link 2023-10-14T15:07Z 61.9K followers, 564.1K engagements
". She is risking unleashing migratory flows and placing in danger security of diplomatic staff in the region and humanitarian aid workers. She has just killed any prospect of an MoU on migration with Egypt and the MoU on migration with Tunisia"
X Link 2023-10-14T15:07Z 55.7K followers, 43.2K engagements
". She has got herself into something where the heads of states from the big countries dont want the EU showboating. She has undermined the UNSG and she has given political carte blanche for a massacre still to come. And it is driven primarily by her media obsession"
X Link 2023-10-14T15:07Z 55.6K followers, 46.4K engagements
"The EU doesn't have the highest credibility as a foreign policy actor but this is a fiasco on a scale we have never witnessed Suffice to say lots of very senior people in the member states and across the institutions are very very unhappy"
X Link 2023-10-14T15:07Z 56K followers, 55.1K engagements
"Special European Council called for Tues - to try and grip and impose some discipline and coherence into EU's approach over Israel/Gaza which has been a political and communications disaster"
X Link 2023-10-14T19:26Z 55K followers, 54.4K engagements
"Poland exit polls. Turnout 73% PiS [----] Civic Coalition31.6 Third Way [--] Left8.6 Konfederacja 6.2"
X Link 2023-10-15T19:01Z 61.2K followers, 45.6K engagements
"Exit polls in Poland point to a clear majority for the opposition. Based on these projections this is the end of PiS rule Liberal opposition - [---] seats PiS - [---] seats Konfederacja - [--] seats"
X Link 2023-10-15T19:06Z 61.9K followers, 570.8K engagements
"If Polish exit polls prove correct and the liberal opposition ultimately forms a Govt that is a massive boost for the EU - & Poland's role and influence within it"
X Link 2023-10-15T19:40Z 55.7K followers, 49.1K engagements
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