# ![@Met4CastUK Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1227559532882223105.png) @Met4CastUK Met4Cast - UK Weather

Met4Cast - UK Weather posts on X about transient, rain, the north, in the the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1227559532882223105/interactions)
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- [--] Week [-------] -8.90%
- [--] Month [---------] -62%
- [--] Months [----------] -19%
- [--] Year [----------] +113%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1227559532882223105/posts_active)
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- [--] Week [--] +83%
- [--] Month [---] -29%
- [--] Months [---] +113%
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### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1227559532882223105/followers)
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- [--] Week [------] +0.02%
- [--] Month [------] +0.66%
- [--] Months [------] +17%
- [--] Year [------] +37%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1227559532882223105/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1227559532882223105/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  6% [countries](/list/countries)  5% [social networks](/list/social-networks)  1% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  1% [finance](/list/finance)  1%

**Social topic influence**
[transient](/topic/transient) #3, [rain](/topic/rain) #356, [the north](/topic/the-north) #90, [in the](/topic/in-the) 7%, [strong](/topic/strong) #2880, [sunday](/topic/sunday) #453, [snow](/topic/snow) 4%, [spell](/topic/spell) #84, [england](/topic/england) #255, [red](/topic/red) 3%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@jakegru79480243](/creator/undefined) [@cityandy2](/creator/undefined) [@_malaciaaaa](/creator/undefined) [@mattywolves3](/creator/undefined) [@samsouthal1875](/creator/undefined) [@malaciaaaa](/creator/undefined) [@londonbusking5](/creator/undefined) [@pengwy15627](/creator/undefined) [@wanderlust8119](/creator/undefined) [@kyahhurrel](/creator/undefined) [@rorage09](/creator/undefined) [@luclee47](/creator/undefined) [@darrenw57472478](/creator/undefined) [@jacksweatherch1](/creator/undefined) [@thom4sr](/creator/undefined) [@leo_okie](/creator/undefined) [@nathanssfc_nufc](/creator/undefined) [@nathanssfcnufc](/creator/undefined) [@thesnowdreamer](/creator/undefined) [@andrewb57](/creator/undefined)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Interesting uptick in AAM tendency at the moment being driven by +FT and +MT. The mountain torque primarily coming from the North American Rockies. Research shows that +ve NAMT can promote neutral or -NAO patterns. I do get the sense that regardless of deeper cold / widespread snowfall risks January could see a repeating waxing & waning of blocking patterns. I'm still anticipating a below average month overall but detail re: deeper cold & snow prospects continue to remain elusive. Colder doesn't necessarily = a snowy month. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2004571109358751943"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2004571109358751943)  2025-12-26T15:12Z 35.4K followers, 11.2K engagements


"This is a BIGGGGG signal emerging from the flux plots. A huge injection of negative anomalies in the sub tropics moving poleward this coupled with a rather large injection of momentum via strong +FT and a strong +NAMT event and things are looking fairly favourable for continued blocking longer term. This does show further evidence that the initial blocking is likely to enter a waxing waning waxing sequence i.e repeated attempts at either Atlantic or high latitude blocking as January progresses. Again details re: potential for deep cold / snow to come later but we'd have to be pretty damn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2004898812192600331)  2025-12-27T12:55Z 35.4K followers, 14.7K engagements


"The recent Met Office beta app has made some changes. Theyve re-added the feels like temperature and reduced the amount of wasted space at the top of the homepage. Text forecasts will hopefully be re-added soon and wind gusts are being looked at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014674239228453269)  2026-01-23T12:19Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"UPDATE: The move has unfortunately not gone as planned. The house is an absolute state dog urine soaked into every single floorboard in the house and a huge amount of rubbish left behind. My driveway is full of rubbish that ive removed from the house not 100% sure how Im getting rid of it yet but the neighbours are really nice people and are helping out a lot. Cleaning. Scrubbing. Repeat seems to be slowly improving but its a lot of work. I knew this was a bit of a doer upper but I had no idea it was quite *this* bad. Virtually no signal here but internet should be connected today. Weather"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2016457318909546698)  2026-01-28T10:24Z 35.4K followers, 34.1K engagements


"Climate change has ruined UK winters. The pattern we have today would likely have brought about widespread significant snow & blizzards in the 80s. Alas we have lots of rain and some hill snow instead. Battleground snowfall scenarios in the UK are becoming increasingly rare along with sustained cold & snowy conditions especially for lowland southern England as the planet continues to warm our winters will only get milder and snow will continue to become more restricted / rare. It seems to get proper cold snowy conditions we need a major splitting SSW. On paper this winter should have"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2019137968238186771)  2026-02-04T19:56Z 35.4K followers, 37.5K engagements


"Youll all be very pleased to know that theres more rain on the way. 🌧"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2019423722999046653)  2026-02-05T14:51Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Britain right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2019424541454541028)  2026-02-05T14:55Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"🚩 🚩 🚩 Winter is *probably* over now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2019425160399622538)  2026-02-05T14:57Z 35.4K followers, 51.7K engagements


"@NathanSSFC_NUFC Thatll be spring snowfall 😊"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2019462581388271848)  2026-02-05T17:26Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Blink and youll miss it cold snap on the models today. A brief colder spell but nothing exceptional for the time of year. Snow to lower levels possible but likely to be mostly northern hills"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2019794451590172872)  2026-02-06T15:24Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@_Malaciaaaa Yes always a chance. Perhaps a transient snow event or two around mid month"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2019874860147564967)  2026-02-06T20:44Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"This by the way is why when making an assessment on long range probabilities you need to account for ALL possible outcomes. Making a big call and hyping up cold because the MJO is moving through a certain phase often leads to a complete failure in a forecast. All probable outcomes need to be assessed and assigned a likelihood. More often than not there are [--] or [--] possible outcomes not just one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2020083103356657727)  2026-02-07T10:31Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@_Malaciaaaa Nothing more than a transient cold blip barely 48hrs of -5C isotherm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2020206120196010092)  2026-02-07T18:40Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"Previous tweets: AAM tendency is currently falling following a surge in late January. The current broadscale setup favours Scandinavian troughing and while the jet stream is weak it hasnt collapsed entirely and with limited blocking to our north it seems likely the Atlantic jet will remain influential on UK weather through the next couple of weeks. Any cold spells or colder periods therefore are likely to be transient with low pressure pushing in across the UK. This may allow for some transient mixed phase (snow rain) events primarily across northern counties and particularly across hills."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2020215950318944453)  2026-02-07T19:19Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"MODEL BIAS (first gif) The AIGFS was consistent in bringing in cold easterly winds for late January. Day after day we saw blocking to the north and low pressure disrupting south. What actually transpired (second gif) was weaker blocking to the north and low pressure tracking more north across the UK resulting in lots of rain and snow across northern hills. We are seeing something similar (albeit less dramatic initial modelling) for next weekend. Blocking has been weakened and as a result its looking wet rather than white for the vast majority. Weve seen this same theme play out all winter."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2020494493787594954)  2026-02-08T13:46Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Claim: Cold & snow on the way later next week Reality: A brief colder incursion with some transient snow / hill snow in the north. Further rain for the south"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2020594568027382024)  2026-02-08T20:24Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@Londonbusking5 @MATTYWOLVES3 Because its a spectacular climb down from Matt after days of talking up cold & snow prospects next week and criticising / name calling because I was saying it wont be anything but transient.* *for the 15th time this winter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2020609639000220144)  2026-02-08T21:24Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"🚩🚩🚩 The likelihood of sustained cold & widespread snow is now very low for the rest of winter. A period of transient cold / below average temperatures looks likely but nothing significant or noteworthy. As stated a few days ago now winter is effectively over"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2020612345278402752)  2026-02-08T21:34Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@Pengwy15627 Hopefully a more active convective season this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2020619661155750211)  2026-02-08T22:04Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"@TheSnowDreamer Looking rather restricted to northern hills to me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2020819851976020117)  2026-02-09T11:19Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"With the MJO moving through the Indian Ocean and into phases 3/4 as February progresses it seems likely that weather patterns will revert to more typical patterns. i.e low pressure to the north and west with high pressure to the south & east as we go through the first half of March. i.e no real cold on the horizon but equally nothing exceptionally mild or spring like appearing yet either. Quite grim"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2020828541244395620)  2026-02-09T11:54Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@Wanderlust8119 No snow warnings issued by the Met Office at this point so not sure where the warnings are coming from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2020915338863386997)  2026-02-09T17:38Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@KyahHurrel Will likely be more restricted to hills than models currently show however come transient snow rain is possible"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2021247979580010681)  2026-02-10T15:40Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"Looking further ahead there remains a few possibilities. With the MJO moving through the Indian Ocean this typically favours a more +NAO pattern i.e unsettled and Atlantic driven. The recent stratospheric weakening however may allow for ridges of high pressure to develop out in the Atlantic or towards the north of the UK two competing drivers working against each other. The net result will *most likely* be a continuation of what weve seen for much of winter high pressure too weak and too far north to shift the jet stream far enough south for the UK to tap into deeper cold. SUMMARY: The"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2021978669288227004)  2026-02-12T16:04Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Brief colder interlude this weekend with some hill snow particularly in the north before more typical Atlantic regimes take hold. Should at least become a little drier in the south with rain focused more across the north"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2021149229410865215)  2026-02-10T09:08Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Reminder: 🚩🚩🚩 No significant cold or widespread snowy conditions are expected in the next 7-10 days. A brief chilly spell this weekend transient snow or hill snow for some but nothing for the vast majority. Well soon be hunting some spring weather"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2021223211317199095)  2026-02-10T14:02Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"If this isnt worthy of a James May gif party then Im not sure what is Look how blocked this winter has been with a lack of an Azores high signature yet nothing has come from it. The low pressure anomaly not quite aligned right in a position to drive enough of a strong cold easterly flow to our shores I would think. Nonetheless very annoying. https://t.co/HPdI24kQPf Look how blocked this winter has been with a lack of an Azores high signature yet nothing has come from it. The low pressure anomaly not quite aligned right in a position to drive enough of a strong cold easterly flow to our shores"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2021262266595733931)  2026-02-10T16:37Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@ROrage09 Cold weather in March is usually pointless"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2021368180032274934)  2026-02-10T23:38Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"WINTER 2025/2026 vs forecast Its a little early for a full re-analysis of winter but thus far the forecast has transpired very close to expectations. The key points from the winter forecast issued at the end of October were; ⚫ Strong zonal / Atlantic regimes lower than normal ⚫ Blocking more likely than normal The MSLP anomaly (first image) shows that this blocking anomaly to the north has transpired with low pressure shifted south. A much more blocked pattern vs normal winters. So broadscale Im very happy that the winter forecast using a GSDM / teleconnective approach has proven to be very"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2021567383249297433)  2026-02-11T12:49Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Here are the maximum expected temperatures during this cold spell. Friday: 0-7C Saturday: 1-6C Sunday: 2-12C. Transient snow rain event possible Sunday but details uncertain. Im not sure you could even classify this as a cold spell honestly"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2021662411657474499)  2026-02-11T19:07Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"There's a growing signal within the EPS for a flattening out of the pattern in [--] days time i.e a more typical milder west east pattern. Finally hopes of something drier coming into view for at least southern areas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2021679716474733000)  2026-02-11T20:16Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@JakeGru79480243 @CityAndy2 Alas turns out I was rather close to the mark. [--] chilly days followed by a quick return to less cold conditions & some transient (mostly) hill snow on the cards"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2021681522130948529)  2026-02-11T20:23Z 35.4K followers, [--] engagements


"@luclee47 It's [--] days of chilly weather and a transient snow event that mostly favours hills. What do you want me to be forecasting precisely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2021684007126048849)  2026-02-11T20:33Z 35.4K followers, [--] engagements


"Latest from the Met Office showing where the most likely snow accumulations are on Sunday. Northern hills favoured although perhaps a slushy mix to lower levels for a time. Accumulations much more patchy further south. Details etc to be firmed up on in coming days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2021701746959995157)  2026-02-11T21:43Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Oh good. ⚠ The Met Office have issued a yellow rain warning for tomorrow. Further flooding possible"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2020444002030329955)  2026-02-08T10:26Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"For those that use the GSDM solutions website for AAM data bad news is that the site is now down permanently due repeated bot attacks. At some point the site will return in a new paid subscription based form but when / how thats implemented isnt known. Huge data loss for longer range forecasters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2022236014555570550)  2026-02-13T09:06Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"This brief chilly spell is progressing largely as anticipated. Some hill snow yesterday in a few places but for most just rain suspect tonight / tomorrow will go the same way with snow *mostly* confined to higher ground perhaps briefly to lower levels in the north"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2022576129794576775)  2026-02-14T07:38Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"I did think yesterdays UKV was too enthusiastic the latest run reduces the snow risk for the south on Sunday markedly. Other models are trending in this same direction"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2021857596878082272)  2026-02-12T08:03Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"FRI [--] FEB [--] A band of rain & hill snow will continue to move south through this evening and into tomorrow morning. Whilst the vast majority will see rain hills 250M may see some falling snow for a time Pennines hills of Wales & perhaps Exmoor / Dartmoor for example"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2021885729350242736)  2026-02-12T09:54Z 35.4K followers, 10K engagements


"Good news Since December 21st weve gained around [--] and a half hours of daylight. The sun is getting stronger and spring is just around the corner 🌞 Lets hope its a good one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2021968663058731274)  2026-02-12T15:24Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"SUNDAY SNOW DEPTHS Following on from the previous tweet whilst falling snow will be more widespread accumulating or settling snowfall will be far more limited. 0-2CM possible temporarily to lower levels down into the Midlands further north accumulations may be a little higher particularly so across Scotland before milder air pushes in. Most accumulations however will be limited to above 200M"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2022348763386327511)  2026-02-13T16:34Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"What an incredible cold spell this has turned out to be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2022393565142487252)  2026-02-13T19:32Z 35.4K followers, 17.1K engagements


"It's a wintry morning across Northern England today with a mixture of rain sleet and snow. This area will track southwards through today albeit with any snow becoming increasingly confined to 200M"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2022246871230804015)  2026-02-13T09:50Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Strong signal within the extended EPS for something drier and milder towards the end of the month. Before then though generally unsettled with further rain and perhaps hill snow at times potential for another chilly period 22nd-25th but how/if this comes about remains to be see. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022247417144312060 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022247417144312060"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2022247417144312060)  2026-02-13T09:52Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"⚠ ICE ⚠ A yellow warning for ice has been issued. Temperatures will fall behind todays band of rain and hill snow leading to icy stretches overnight and early tomorrow morning"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2022280086645342328)  2026-02-13T12:01Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY Active weather fronts bumping into colder air on Sunday will bring the risk of widespread transient snowfall. Accumulating snowfall is most likely 200M although temporary accumulations to lower levels are possible significant accumulations (5-15CM) are possible 350M. The greatest risk of falling snow is across the Midlands northwards although snow is expected to turn back to rain quite quickly here. Further south the most likely outcome is rain however it's possible the front here will weaken significantly limiting much in the way of precipitation at all."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2022346333378445556)  2026-02-13T16:25Z 35.4K followers, 11.5K engagements


"@DarrenW57472478 No strong signal as of yet but certainly further risks of transient colder interludes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2022399283761418307)  2026-02-13T19:55Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"The hype (chart from the 9th for today) vs the reality (current radar). Although modelling got the broader idea of a precipitation band sinking south correct this highlights how useless precipitation type forecasts are even [--] days out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2022416486518931838)  2026-02-13T21:03Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"The likelihood of something milder to end the last month of winter appears to be growing with a further shift in ensembles finding mild outcomes. If you get snow on Sunday enjoy it it might be the last of the season"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2022431693635035544)  2026-02-13T22:04Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"The signal for something milder has strengthen within the overnight EPS for the final week of the month. Good news for those wanting something a little closer to spring 🌷"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2022621207951253873)  2026-02-14T10:37Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Lots of pre-frontal clag ahead of tonight & tomorrows rain & mostly hill snow event"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2022729369777529004)  2026-02-14T17:47Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Tonights front is now edging into southwest England and Wales. Heavy snow across Northern Ireland although accumulations are very limited"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2022746022783652299)  2026-02-14T18:53Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"We almost have cross model consensus. Weak blocking to the north will likely allow low pressure to move into the UK potentially wet & stormy through next week rather than cold and snowy. I'm waiting to see the 12z ECM if that follows this path (likely) then the third red flag will be issued and this chase will be over. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014012592348389671 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014012592348389671"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014012592348389671)  2026-01-21T16:29Z 35.4K followers, 21.3K engagements


"The most likely outcome for the rest of January is for low pressure to dominate the pattern with wet and potentially windy weather at times. There is still a chance of snow along the northern boundary possibly northern England / Scotland favoured. A small chance of something much colder still exists however the likelihood is diminishing. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014023226435739726 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014023226435739726"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014023226435739726)  2026-01-21T17:12Z 35.4K followers, 26.2K engagements


"The ECM has made a step towards other less cold output but hasnt fully committed. Its certainly a step away from deeper cold however. Lets await the ensembles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014039174274330704)  2026-01-21T18:15Z 35.4K followers, 11.8K engagements


"I kept being told that it was blatantly obvious cold was coming. That a beast from the east was on the way. That I was an idiot for being cautious and realistic and not making a decision. This is the coldest the GFS 18z gets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014101534947029426)  2026-01-21T22:23Z 35.4K followers, 43K engagements


"@MATTYWOLVES3 Is this your beast from the east"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014101752363012470)  2026-01-21T22:24Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"@JakeGru79480243 Not just yet - Third flag means cold spell isnt happening theres still just about enough of a signal to hold off"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014103194884772304)  2026-01-21T22:29Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@MATTYWOLVES3 You said the other day that the outlook was blatant towards cold when I was talking about the uncertainty. What happened"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014105017100140817)  2026-01-21T22:37Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"🚩🚩🚩 THIRD RED FLAG ISSUED. Modelling has now completely shifted away from a cold spell next week. The most likely outcome is a very wet & potentially windy week with Atlantic weather systems dominating the pattern across the UK. Cold is now very unlikely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014269121492312388)  2026-01-22T09:29Z 35.4K followers, 12.8K engagements


"Oh christ. The ECM is throwing up an easterly for early February. Not sure I have the stamina for this again 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014398989475409973)  2026-01-22T18:05Z 35.4K followers, 18.9K engagements


"@andrewb57 The GSDM (Global Synoptic Diagnosis Model) was developed for exactly that reason"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014652162286973239)  2026-01-23T10:51Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"Storm Ingrid spinning to the southwest of the UK this afternoon. The low dropped to 954MB which is [--] standard deviations below average. H/t @peacockreports"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014676832440709268)  2026-01-23T12:29Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Mentioned SSW potential earlier and the GFS has significantly backed off with no split event on the 12z. Just shows how unreliable longer term modelling is when it comes to these events"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014742192716153088)  2026-01-23T16:49Z 35.4K followers, 11.4K engagements


"Realistic forecasts hyping. You can always tell the difference. Hypers will never talk about other possible outcomes and will only ever show cold charts rarely highlighting the likelihood of such charts coming to fruition (usually low). Long range forecasting is all about probabilities i.e is X more likely than Y If yes that doesnt mean Y is discounted. Forecasts evolve as new data comes in its important to assess ALL possible outcomes not just the outcome you may prefer. Hope my balanced forecasts and posts prove more helpful than those who just tell you cold is coming 24/7 For now - A"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014768051187839021)  2026-01-23T18:31Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@dlukefinch Maybe its just growing on me 😂 Agree though the design still needs a significant amount of work"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2015164026678841506)  2026-01-24T20:45Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"Ignoring the obviously erroneous green line there is a significant ensemble spread developing in the extended with some colder members appearing. Continued potential for something colder early-mid February albeit remaining a lower likelihood for now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2015336369619341586)  2026-01-25T08:10Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@ThudVisa Theyre moving inline with government recommendations for accessibility the old app didnt fit with that & would have required too much work to bring it up to standard (they are a government body after all)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2015353933133123672)  2026-01-25T09:19Z 35.4K followers, [--] engagements


"This does mean that should we see significant trends against cold outcomes for the above period red flags will start to be issued 🚩 Currently though the default is zero"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2015397997882802277)  2026-01-25T12:15Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"I am starting to question now how sustained any (if there is any) blocking might end up being now. Clear signal within models to weaken the MJO into a very low amplitude phase [--] as we progress through December with the signal likely becoming entirely incoherent. This coupled with a fall in AAM as we lose MJO forcing will create a fairly sharp inflection point a significant Pacific Jet retraction following a fall in both FT and MT promoting a more mobile / westerly pattern within the Atlantic later in December. It looks like we might have a window of opportunity for blocking in the 15th-24th"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/1993976181855605187)  2025-11-27T09:32Z 35.4K followers, 31K engagements


"21:10: Looking at the current radar Im more optimistic about snow further south on the back edge assuming the precipitation holds together. Cold air undercutting very evident"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2009372474153095320)  2026-01-08T21:11Z 35.4K followers, 27.7K engagements


"The 12z GEFS is perhaps the strongest signal weve seen from this model for an easterly flow across the UK by the 26th 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2013297239431495734)  2026-01-19T17:07Z 35.4K followers, 14.4K engagements


"MET OFFICE APP - FEEDBACK I will be talking to the Met Office app team in a couple of hours to find out more about the new app the thinking and hopefully future direction. What would you like to see added / fixed I will pass all feedback directly to the team"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2013963351471149174)  2026-01-21T13:14Z 35.4K followers, 12.9K engagements


"⚠ A constant stream of precipitation combined with orographic lift along southeast facing mountains could lead to some very high rainfall totals for parts of Scotland. Totals of 100-120mm are possible locally"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014267362711622121)  2026-01-22T09:22Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"GEFS & EPS are clear. There is no cold spell on the way and temperatures will be around average into February. Parts of Scotland / Northern hills however could see a fair amount of snow ❄"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014976809167634927)  2026-01-24T08:21Z 35.4K followers, 11.1K engagements


"PERIOD OF INTEREST 5th-15 February Following on from a coherent MJO transition through phases 6-7 its likely we will see further progression into phase [--]. Equally we have a spike in +ve AAM tendency thanks to strong +MT in particular an emerging +EAMT event which will generate a Pacific jet extension which will likely lead to a relaxation of cold across the USA. The end result is a weakening of suppression of the Atlantic jet allowing tropical forcing to begin to produce high latitude blocking particularly towards Greenland with NWP modelling beginning to show a signal for this in the above"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2015370995344027848)  2026-01-25T10:27Z 35.4K followers, 29.4K engagements


"If we do see a major SSW and split vortex its plausible that tropospheric impacts will be much faster (within a week rather than 2-3 weeks). The vortex is already weak and theres no real westerly momentum to flush out first. Long way out but something to monitor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2015480442732871995)  2026-01-25T17:42Z 35.4K followers, 15.8K engagements


"An amber rain warning has been issued along with Storm Chandra being named. Locally high rainfall totals possible ⚠"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2015738568006594690)  2026-01-26T10:48Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Theres an interesting bi-modal split within the EPS for the second week of February with the stronger cluster being the colder one. Growing potential for a cold period of weather"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2016819196126953558)  2026-01-29T10:22Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Severe potentially catastrophic flooding in northern Italy this evening following severe thunderstorms. Thats a lot of water. https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1807153755478974607/video/1 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1807153755478974607/video/1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/1807157467174101353)  2024-06-29T21:01Z 35.4K followers, 589.8K engagements


"Annonay France. Rivers are already flooding & thats before huge amounts of rainfall in the next [--] days"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/1846863577631580212)  2024-10-17T10:39Z 35.4K followers, 194.5K engagements


"The Med is experiencing a 1-in-216-billion-year sea temperature anomaly. To grasp how rare that is: Earth is only [---] billion years old. For this event to occur naturally earth would need to exist for 48x longer This is 15x rarer than the age of the universe Equally likely to win the lottery [----] times in a row This isnt unusual. Its statistically impossible that this would occur without anthropogenic climate change"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/1941862167587729764)  2025-07-06T14:09Z 35.4K followers, 1.6M engagements


"@FXweather26823 Below but not extraordinarily so that altitude often sees snowfall at this time of year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/1964005849476550964)  2025-09-05T16:40Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"The Killington resort preparing for the ski season by making some snow How much to hire one of these for Christmas 👀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/1984717438819451231)  2025-11-01T20:21Z 35.4K followers, 10.7K engagements


"Both the GFS and ECM are suggesting the possibility of a major sudden stratospheric warming and a split vortex event during early February. Long way off and impossible to say what impacts this would have but worth monitoring. May produce cold weather late Feb / early March"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014286492303040703)  2026-01-22T10:38Z 35.4K followers, 10.1K engagements


"My biggest problem with this app is that its not being treated as a brand new up but as a version update from the old app. In my opinion it should have ALL the features of the old app currently that isnt the case"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2014674430748733501)  2026-01-23T12:19Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"The Met Office app isnt looking *too* bad now. Reducing the amount of space at the top has made a significant different and the animations are very nice. Still needs a lot of work but I feel a lot more hopeful that itll get there and they ARE listening"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2015160095881965668)  2026-01-24T20:29Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"The day [--] ECM mean has easterly winds across the UK with snow likely becoming a feature of the forecast. Unfortunately its [--] days away and weve been here once already this winter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2017514696958501312)  2026-01-31T08:26Z 35.4K followers, 13.2K engagements


"The UKMO has easterly winds across the whole of Europe into the UK and basically across the Atlantic to Canada. Similar to the last failed cold spell its a very delicate balance. A growing signal for a potential major SSW is also a possible complication"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2017674999746753017)  2026-01-31T19:03Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"The latest EC46 zonal wind forecast comes perilously close to a reversal in the stratosphere i.e a major sudden stratospheric warming. These events *can* skew patterns slightly in favour of cold patterns. Usually with a lag time of 2-3 weeks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2017705718325907470)  2026-01-31T21:05Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"⚠ The Met Office have issued a yellow ice warning for tonight and tomorrow morning. Wet weather + falling overnight temperatures will pose a hazard"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2017906233710133603)  2026-02-01T10:21Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Heres the forecast for the week ahead 🌧"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2018259995842744521)  2026-02-02T09:47Z 35.4K followers, 10.1K engagements


"A couple of cheeky snow warnings have been issued for tomorrow ❄"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2018325272043426262)  2026-02-02T14:06Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Maybe there wont be a major SSW after all 🚩"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2018426684500812141)  2026-02-02T20:49Z 35.4K followers, 13.7K engagements


"🚩 🚩 With modelling shifting away from a major SSW ensembles have also shifted away on colder prospects for week [--] of February. Hopefully well see some early spring weather at some point this winter has been dire"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2018596147644752347)  2026-02-03T08:03Z 35.4K followers, 11.6K engagements


"@Weather40297744 @Winchester21107 Todays chart has to be one of the most frustrating Ive seen. We have blocking in place and we have low pressure disrupting yet absolutely nothing to show for it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2018614986960977963)  2026-02-03T09:18Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"@metjeffuk Oh What happened to the beast from the east youve been suggesting would arrive since November"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2018694366093533603)  2026-02-03T14:33Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"Another day another rain warning for parts of the southwest. The ground is absolutely saturated rivers are high & with recent flooding it wont take a huge amount of rain to cause further issues ⚠"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2018999442964435194)  2026-02-04T10:45Z 35.4K followers, [----] engagements


"@kmiladi2 @BittertheBlue Now show global temperatures not just data from a single ice core sample from a single location. Regional warming is very different from planetary warming"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/1946174175741083878)  2025-07-18T11:44Z 35.4K followers, [---] engagements


"CAR UPDATE 🚗 Wet belt has 100% failed that failure has blocked the pipe to the Turbo which means the Turbo has also failed & needs replacing. Quoting [----] huge amount of money but far better than needing a new car or engine. Again thank you for the incredible support"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Met4CastUK/status/2008223425719136335)  2026-01-05T17:05Z 35.4K followers, 13.3K engagements

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