#  @ManuInvests Manu Invests Manu Invests posts on X about $uber, $goog, meta, ai the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1926315531683938304/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] +64% - [--] Month [-------] -59% - [--] Months [---------] +10,095% ### Mentions: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1926315531683938304/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] -19% - [--] Month [---] -39% - [--] Months [---] +1,554% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1926315531683938304/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +4.50% - [--] Month [-----] +22% - [--] Months [-----] +1,501% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1926315531683938304/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [stocks](/list/stocks) #4299 [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [finance](/list/finance) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [countries](/list/countries) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands) [currencies](/list/currencies) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) **Social topic influence** [$uber](/topic/$uber) #302, [$goog](/topic/$goog) #35, [meta](/topic/meta) #5116, [ai](/topic/ai), [$meta](/topic/$meta) #92, [business](/topic/business) #3111, [$googl](/topic/$googl) #2680, [in the](/topic/in-the), [insurance](/topic/insurance), [$hims](/topic/$hims) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@billackman](/creator/undefined) [@uber](/creator/undefined) [@qualityinvest5](/creator/undefined) [@capexandchill](/creator/undefined) [@dissectmarkets](/creator/undefined) [@dkhos](/creator/undefined) [@joecarlsonshow](/creator/undefined) [@fiscalai](/creator/undefined) [@thewiseic](/creator/undefined) [@balajikm](/creator/undefined) [@chitchatstocks](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@ruchernchong](/creator/undefined) [@kyleadamsstocks](/creator/undefined) [@latticeinvestor](/creator/undefined) [@nuro](/creator/undefined) [@widemoatczar](/creator/undefined) [@fabj86](/creator/undefined) [@realroseceline](/creator/undefined) [@thelongaj](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) [Metadium (META)](/topic/$meta) [Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)](/topic/$hims) [Sezzle Inc. Common Stock (SEZL)](/topic/$sezl) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [StoneCo Ltd. Class A Common Shares (STNE)](/topic/$stne) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [Crocs, Inc. (CROX)](/topic/$crox) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [Deckers Outdoor, Corp. (DECK)](/topic/$deck) [Intuit Inc. (INTU)](/topic/$intu) [S&P Global Inc (SPGI)](/topic/$spgi) [Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)](/topic/$adbe) [MercadoLibre Inc (MELI)](/topic/$meli) [IES Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (IESC)](/topic/$iesc) [Now Coin (NOW)](/topic/$now) [Mastercard, Inc. (MA)](/topic/$ma) [Fair Isaac, Corp. (FICO)](/topic/$fico) [Progressive Corp (PGR)](/topic/$pgr) [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "I am still adding and see great value in these [--] companies $AMZN below $220. $IESC below $240. $GOOG below $180. Companies that have recently caught my interest. If you have any insight or thoughts I would be happy to hear: $DFH $TBLA $DECK" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1927181891989352845) 2025-05-27T01:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Launching at-home lab testing and TRT will be the next major catalyst for $HIMS. It is not priced in" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1934063460301832652) 2025-06-15T01:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@QualityInvest5 My biggest and most bullish position. $META continues to execute" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1934792233305145349) 2025-06-17T01:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "It might be a little early but I think the past year has been Googles [----] $META moment. I was a buyer of $META then and Im a buyer of $GOOG now" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1935808098780037470) 2025-06-19T21:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "The majority of stablecoin transactions will use $V Visa and $MA Mastercard networks. Quote me. Non-issue" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1936091916430447009) 2025-06-20T16:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@MMMTwealth Completely agree. With my projections using conservative assumptions $HIMS hits 2-3x in [----]. Im pretty confident the model to 3x is entirely realistic. Good to see others landing within same ranges" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1936425566527471923) 2025-06-21T14:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$HIMS on track for 2-3x from here by [----]. Check out my writeup if interested in how I got there: https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/hims-growing-into-its-valuation-andr=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios If you want [--] high growth smaller caps then look here (1-5) 👇 If you want [--] compounding giants then look here (6-10) 👇 HIGH GROWTH 🧵 [--]. Hims & Hers $HIMS An obvious one to start but let me show you why $HIMS is still a bargain despite it's 190% over the last year. https://t.co/Rxx3fKDvKh https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/hims-growing-into-its-valuation-andr=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios If" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1936426234180702355) 2025-06-21T14:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@realroseceline I am. Its 10% of portfolio and I have been and will keep buying into the weakness in pricing" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1936440417857229070) 2025-06-21T15:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@joecarlsonshow The contrarian in my is screaming about Adobe but I just dont know what the future holds. Constantly debating with myself" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1936465027885621664) 2025-06-21T16:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "@Kross_Roads I know you said take this w a grain of salt but LULU reported lower customers and lower avg order value. Active Customers of 2.6m an 8% decrease compared to 2.8m in the same period last year. Im sure individual stores vary but It is factually less customers" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1936905494964195507) 2025-06-22T21:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@Kross_Roads People keep saying the same thing about SBUX but SBUX keeps telling everyone same stores sales and foot traffic are declining. The beauty of earnings reports is that we dont need to rely on visual anecdotes for the data" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1936905758941319463) 2025-06-22T21:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Spike_1567 @CreativeCap89 HIMS sells generic finasteride in pill form in addition to their topical product. This post is incorrect" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1936951346063626369) 2025-06-23T00:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "MASTERCARD FISERV EXPAND PARTNERSHIP TO PUSH STABLECOIN USE Mastercard $MA is teaming up with Fiserv $FI to roll out FIUSDFiservs new stablecoinacross Mastercards global network. 👇🏻 The majority of stablecoin transactions will use $V Visa and $MA Mastercard networks. Quote me. Non-issue. The majority of stablecoin transactions will use $V Visa and $MA Mastercard networks. Quote me. Non-issue" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1937463423291523243) 2025-06-24T10:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TheLongAJ Completely agree. Fortunate I was able to open a position during the tariff drops" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1939752996084080652) 2025-06-30T18:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Wegovy wasnt included in the full year FY25 guidance. HIMS has also clearly communicated expectations for QoQ decline in revenue due to commercial GLP1 ending in April and associated subscriber churn. It shouldnt be a shocking quarter. But this stock reacts erratically despite any guidance so 🤷🏻♂" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1940202709489262723) 2025-07-02T00:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$META seems to be hitting where it hurts. Head of Recruiting at OpenAI attempting to call out Zuck. OpenAI trying to stand on ethics is pretty comical as well. Its unethical (and reeks of desperation) to give people exploding offers that expire within hours and to ask them to sign before they even have a chance to tell their current manager. Meta you know better than this. Put people first. Its unethical (and reeks of desperation) to give people exploding offers that expire within hours and to ask them to sign before they even have a chance to tell their current manager. Meta you know better" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1941186433953431767) 2025-07-04T17:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Rapidly accelerating growth strong fundamentals and a stable valuation. $HIMS is setup for success. The next [--] QTRs will be important for $HIMS in pushing past the GLP1 and Novo overhang. If $HIMS continues to execute we are going to see significant price appreciation. @WealthyReadings https://t.co/h8soHyMUlC @WealthyReadings https://t.co/h8soHyMUlC" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1941522169009406316) 2025-07-05T15:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I agree. There is nothing inherently illegal at all but $HOOD is pushing the innovation envelope. Which is a good thing but its also new. This will undoubtedly bring up review and regulations but that isnt inherently bad or not normal. Some of it also may be simply language - referencing stock and shares implies ownership. I also think $hood for their first one free - companies are going to take tokens into account (positively or negatively) when considering giving $hood equity" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1942562500353872310) 2025-07-08T12:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@riyadosofian A few weeks ago Novo issued statements that it was intentional. Weird" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1943126025052762509) 2025-07-10T01:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Lots of tweets around $NOVO fumble regarding Canadian patent. This was headlines a few weeks ago but attention is new due to $HIMS move into Canada. $NOVO claims it was an intentional decision and not a misstep. Bizarre that they filed a CSP for patent extension simultaneously though. Weird move. $HIMS continuing to execute" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1943127221603860942) 2025-07-10T01:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "With a possible $ZETA inclusion Imagine the possibilities. /s I agree $HIMS and @Whoop With a possible $OSCR inclusion Could be a game changer I agree $HIMS and @Whoop With a possible $OSCR inclusion Could be a game changer" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1944398944877834703) 2025-07-13T14:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HIMS - coming soon. https://www.hims.com/comprehensive-lab-testing https://www.hims.com/comprehensive-lab-testing" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1944528449407701441) 2025-07-13T22:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "This is sick. I fully switched to chrome and swapped to the Google app on my iphone. Did you AI mode and web assistant built in are perfect execution. Love to see the dip and rebound to new heights. $GOOG $GOOG Chrome market share increased in June to an all time high. https://t.co/OJhaBuc4YL $GOOG Chrome market share increased in June to an all time high. https://t.co/OJhaBuc4YL" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1945583996827505007) 2025-07-16T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Dear Jerome Powell Good job. I appreciate you. You successfully soft-landed the shit out of that. Sincerely Manu" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1945585603455660471) 2025-07-16T20:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Even if they are flat next year - which I doubt - 9.16% CAGR for [--] years or 12% for [--] years gets revenue to the same spot as 7.2% over [--] years. A flat next year isnt anything major. And they didnt say it would be flat they said they expected growth but were being cautious due to uncertainty" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1945651284020711720) 2025-07-17T01:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Not many companies look this nice. $HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1945845231544344588) 2025-07-17T13:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "BoA used a collection of graphs in their $HIMS report yesterday. At first glance some of them can seem scary but its important to take the analysts incentive into account. data can tell any story you want it to depending on how its presented. Two examples These graphs are misleading at first look and appear overtly negative. But. Sequential Growth in quarterly app downloads. really So if last quarter has [---] million and this quarter had [--] million it is reflected as -50%. but its actually still a 50% growth. And app downloads arent consumable its not a product you download more than once" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1946580618944692546) 2025-07-19T14:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@_Sgr_A_Star Agreed. HIMS has been very straightforward on expectations during calls but Im sure these same analysts will be highlighting the above come earnings" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1946769317569175851) 2025-07-20T03:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Yes - HIMS had been very clear they expect this quarter to be the first QoQ decline primarily due to the end of commercialized GLP-1 and a large portion of the associated consumers leaving the platform and/or not joining the platform. Should be a one time re-adjustment from the temporary commercial GLP1 dynamic ending" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1946770351775510602) 2025-07-20T03:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@JReinhold16419 Show me the incentives and Ill show you the outcome" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1946770737781420292) 2025-07-20T03:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@mikumyhoney Exactly weird data point to present. But whatever can be used to make a case I guess their options are limited with HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1946771389605724580) 2025-07-20T03:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "My mean reversion index trade of buy the tariff dip did so much better bro. For those that watch the @theallinpod you may remember that my most obvious trade idea heading into Jan was long the S&P Index and short the Mag7. Aka the Mean Reversion Index Trade Turned out to be free money. Very rare that the market gives you these kinds of fat pitches. https://t.co/06SheKJGLk For those that watch the @theallinpod you may remember that my most obvious trade idea heading into Jan was long the S&P Index and short the Mag7. Aka the Mean Reversion Index Trade Turned out to be free money. Very rare" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1947430272527487235) 2025-07-21T22:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Accounts payable and other liabilities These are basically general expenses which havent been settled yet such as taxes owed payments owed to employees legal bills etc. This is usually paid at varying timescales and taken after gross profit as part of general expenses Benefits payable This relates to money Oscar owes to care providers for their customers This is paid on a rolling basis usually within 30-90 days This is factored into revenue costs and is not generally drawn from their cash pile This is 100% false this is not how accounting works. This is drawn from their cash pile. Whether it" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1947712917966885262) 2025-07-22T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Curious why FCF isnt the right metric for $OSCR and insurance companies in general Take [--] mins and read below 👇🏻 $OSCR $PGR Let me know if you find this helpful and are interested in a deeper dive on the topic. @weary_centurion Just to add as I noticed some FCF confusion on prior threads. The above explains some of the reasoning but here is an attempt at a super simplified version: By definition - free cash is the cash leftover after obligations for the company to invest in growth or disburse to @weary_centurion Just to add as I noticed some FCF confusion on prior threads. The above" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1947964293372412021) 2025-07-23T10:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Technically their surplus "assets" are approx 1.5b but with an insurance company like $OSCR there are not really much assets besides cash and their cash float that is invested. So yes - that is correct. But also keep in mind next year's benefit payments are based on assumptions so even with cash in hand they need to account for the risk of higher than expected benefit payments or lower than expected premiums received. So some percentage of cash will always not technically be fully theirs. (if that makes sense). As long as growth continues and they use appropriate assumptions and medical costs" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1948112685163557337) 2025-07-23T20:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$GOOG: Search queries continue to grow YoY & double digit ad revenue growth. 💥 Did someone say something about disruption" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1948121754640973996) 2025-07-23T20:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@weary_centurion Good stuff. Enjoyed our convo about $OSCR and the balance sheet in particular. Happy you found it helpful" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1949196069457285189) 2025-07-26T19:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TheTechInvest Unfortunately youre leaving out the other half of the accounting equation. Viewing cash as a standalone in valuing insurance companies is not appropriate. This post is misleading" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1949203323913175459) 2025-07-26T20:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$GOOG Amazon $AMZN removed all Google $GOOGL Shopping ads globally for [--] hours Between July [--] and [--] [----] Amazon suddenly pulled all its Google Shopping ads in major markets. Amazon's ad presence dropped: [--]. from 60% to 0% in the U.S. [--]. 55% to 0% in the U.K. and [--]. 38% to 0% https://t.co/nnZgKN6Sou Amazon $AMZN removed all Google $GOOGL Shopping ads globally for [--] hours Between July [--] and [--] [----] Amazon suddenly pulled all its Google Shopping ads in major markets. Amazon's ad presence dropped: [--]. from 60% to 0% in the U.S. [--]. 55% to 0% in the U.K. and [--]. 38% to 0% https://t.co/nnZgKN6Sou" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1949527261121552452) 2025-07-27T17:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "👇🏻 this is spot on. I remember $META faced an existential threat from TikTok and then they pivoted and delivered reels. ChatGPT was first to the market but $GOOG is firing on all cylinders with its rollout. once Reels got going the incremental user and engagement growth on TikTok was an uphill battle for them. Thats what Google needs to do well: make the next [---] million DAU a very hard fought battle between Google and ChatGPT. https://t.co/DRoTbrxdCJ once Reels got going the incremental user and engagement growth on TikTok was an uphill battle for them. Thats what Google needs to do well:" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1949856654230442266) 2025-07-28T15:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PronkDaniel Sounds like $AMZN is sticking to its day one plan" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1951232469820141690) 2025-08-01T10:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$ASML looking too good not to act. How are we at these valuations despite all this AI capex guidance" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1951301217218343044) 2025-08-01T15:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@MMoney642 Trimming is never necessarily a mistake but trimming hims here is not for me" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1952741478364594281) 2025-08-05T14:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Reuters confirms $HIMS not defendant in $NOVO lawsuits. https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/novo-nordisk-expands-lawsuits-against-weight-loss-drug-compounders-2025-08-05/ https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/novo-nordisk-expands-lawsuits-against-weight-loss-drug-compounders-2025-08-05/" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1952841466411352175) 2025-08-05T21:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "CEOs should strive to be like @dkhos on the $Uber earnings calls. Straight to the point. No fluff words. No non-answer answers simply I dont want to comment on that. I dont feel like Im being sold something when @dkhos speaks and as an investor I appreciate that" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1953149697956188176) 2025-08-06T17:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "And now a message from Big Pharma: Never doubt the integrity of big pharma We have your best interests at heart. This message has been made possible by the industry that invented and promoted OxyContin - a non-addictive miracle drug to cure the pain epidemic $hims $nvo $lly But I thought $NVO and big pharma said $HIMS and compounders were the ones influencing prescribers But I thought $NVO and big pharma said $HIMS and compounders were the ones influencing prescribers" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1955395567321796667) 2025-08-12T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "If chrome gets spun out it is mind blowing. Our economy is built on innovation. Build the best product and we will make you sell it sounds like the antithesis of supporting innovation and American tech to me. $GOOG $GOOGL" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1956425627705155592) 2025-08-15T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I still stand by this valuation and am more confident than when I originally published. I believe a pretty conservative intrinsic value for $HIMS is in the range of $68 - $85. https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/hims-growing-into-its-valuation-and https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/hims-growing-into-its-valuation-and" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1959632312653541604) 2025-08-24T15:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "For sure - I think we are in a bridge period that will result in suppressed pricing and increased volatility until we have the launch of new verticals and/or continued execution in earnings that meet or beat estimates. If $HIMS can meet or surpass Q1 earnings itll be a huge confidence boost in the growth and execution capability of the company for the general market" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1959731104144925088) 2025-08-24T21:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Still stands. If you were paying attention this past quarter should not have been a surprise. $HIMS has been executing according to plan and have effectively communicated that plan all along" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1959731598213136712) 2025-08-24T21:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Stressing about the depreciation impact of all the capex spend over the next few years [--] words: Permanent 100% bonus depreciation. Youll be hearing references in earnings calls later this year. $goog $meta $amzn" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1960118435259543714) 2025-08-25T23:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "While I would love to and hope to see $HIMS accelerate past Q125 (peak commercial GLP-1) what is most important is continued growth and the continued launch of new independent diversified verticals and thats happening. Bears celebrated the first QoQ decline in Q225 but its important to keep perspective as an investor. $HIMS launched commercial GLPs in Q224 and ended it in Q225 and Q225 included a concerted effort to maximize growth before the required end of the product resulting in record revenues. Zoom out and see $HIMS revenue growth trend excluding commercial GLP quarters and you will" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1972391671502631129) 2025-09-28T20:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Boston ended just south of that neck. The town of Roxbury and all south of that was a separate and distinct town. Boston was only [---] acres big. What you are describing as the land area of Boston did not exist as Boston in these referenced maps. The peninsula labeled downtown was the only actual part of Boston at the starting point of this map" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1972408762251034635) 2025-09-28T21:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$UBER $UBER MIZUHO We initiate coverage on Uber shares with an Outperform rating and $130 target price with a compelling bull/bear skew of $175/$75 or +78%/-23%. We introduce estimates largely in-line with consensus but we view the stock as a multi-year compounder forecasting a $UBER MIZUHO We initiate coverage on Uber shares with an Outperform rating and $130 target price with a compelling bull/bear skew of $175/$75 or +78%/-23%. We introduce estimates largely in-line with consensus but we view the stock as a multi-year compounder forecasting a" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1973024967278407829) 2025-09-30T13:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TheLongAJ Good stuff" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1973146669597466912) 2025-09-30T22:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Re-read it. 👇🏻 $GOOG $AMZN $META" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1973146971629396182) 2025-09-30T22:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Meta and Google will benefit from advertising engagement and efficiency with their spend one way or another. Will it get the roic that is expected Maybe not. But will they grow into the benefits Yes. There are some things only big companies can do some get scared. Zuck isnt one of those. If super intelligence and glasses will either pay off for META or it wont and it will be another metaverse and meta will move on with better algorithms better ads better engagement and better efficieny than before. Bezos: as a company grows everything needs to scale including the size of your failed" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1973212738617856034) 2025-10-01T02:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "https://investors.fico.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fico-launches-cost-cutting-direct-license-program-mortgage/ https://investors.fico.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fico-launches-cost-cutting-direct-license-program-mortgage/" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1973680542437789956) 2025-10-02T09:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The FICO direct license program empowers tri-merge resellers to optimize credit costs for both lenders and borrowers. By streamlining distribution the direct license program enhances cost transparency and reduces the price of FICO Scores to the mortgage industry. $FICO" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1973680544623042928) 2025-10-02T09:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Today marks a turning point in how credit scores are delivered and priced across the mortgage industry said Will Lansing Chief Executive Officer of FICO. Direct licensing of the FICO Score brings transparency competition and cost-efficiency to the mortgage lending process. This change eliminates unnecessary mark-ups on the FICO Score and puts pricing model choice in the hands of those who use FICO Scores to drive mortgage decisions. $FICO" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1973680546472415546) 2025-10-02T09:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Mayhem4Markets OpenAI trying to boil the ocean. Figuratively and factually" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1974607389182881873) 2025-10-04T22:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@NighthawkTradez Costco hotdogs are part of the $HIMS bull case" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1974879153762791882) 2025-10-05T16:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Because its a chart meant to trigger emotions. Majority are bonds held to maturity but due to interest rate increases their face value is depressed. Only matters if they sell them which they arent. Holding to maturity impacts the bank zero. And the unrealized loss will decrease as interest rates come down. OPs post is a noise headline post with zero context" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1974935488592019630) 2025-10-05T20:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Remember context always matters. The majority of these holdings are bonds held to maturity but due to interest rate increases their face value is depressed. This only matters if the banks sell them which they arent. Holding to maturity has zero negative impact on the bank. And the unrealized loss will decrease as interest rates come down. This breaking news has been known and digested since [----] and is simply noise to trigger emotional responses. BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Banks U.S. Banks are now sitting on $395 Billion in unrealized losses as of Q2 [----] 👀 https://t.co/hYpDcgf72t BREAKING 🚨: U.S." [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1974938006885716277) 2025-10-05T20:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "OpenAI is placing bets with poker chips it doesnt have. Hundreds of billions of commitments are on the table but OpenAI is currently burning billions. OpenAI is either THE bubble itself or is going to benefit big from a future that is yet to exist. Id rather own diversified business models that are benefiting from AI today and will thrive with or without the commoditization of AI chatbots. $GOOG $GOOGL $META $AMZN" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1975223790146818420) 2025-10-06T15:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$GOOG is THE AI play. Holy shit.Google just built an AI that learns from its own mistakes in real time. New paper dropped on ReasoningBank. The idea is pretty simple but nobody's done it this way before. Instead of just saving chat history or raw logs it pulls out the actual reasoning patterns https://t.co/UvfUEtAgIk Holy shit.Google just built an AI that learns from its own mistakes in real time. New paper dropped on ReasoningBank. The idea is pretty simple but nobody's done it this way before. Instead of just saving chat history or raw logs it pulls out the actual reasoning patterns" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1977231139984056440) 2025-10-12T04:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CCM_Brett This made me genuinely chuckle. Love @chitchatstocks" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1978231209843962249) 2025-10-14T22:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Add in Powells talk of looser policy with additional rates cuts and phasing out of QT and we have potential for significantly more fuel in this run" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1978254265928839568) 2025-10-15T00:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Make sure you enjoy the ride. $HIMS" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1978646346719465520) 2025-10-16T02:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@QualityInvest5 @StockMarketNerd Its related to June [----] Tender Offer. $857m of stock based comp is passed through the income statement as a result. Screenshot shows year end but it occurred in June [----] so is reflected in that quarter. The jump from prior quarter pretty much matches exact with the SBC" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1940209568682066036) 2025-07-02T00:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "No analyst coverage and no hype. Just a quality company following its fundamentals and growing back into its valuation. $IESC - IES Holdings Quietly up 53% since opening my position in February. Opened at $230 and added all the way down to $162" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1940839688233013295) 2025-07-03T18:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$STNE looking very interesting BofA Securities analyst Mario Pierry raised the price target on $STNE to $25.00 (from $15.00) while maintaining a Buy rating. The analyst comments "Our new PO of $25 reflects i) US$23/share for the core business based on a target P/E multiple of 11x (unchanged) our [--] EPS https://t.co/usb1aiH5bB BofA Securities analyst Mario Pierry raised the price target on $STNE to $25.00 (from $15.00) while maintaining a Buy rating. The analyst comments "Our new PO of $25 reflects i) US$23/share for the core business based on a target P/E multiple of 11x (unchanged) our 26" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1965569209074950368) 2025-09-10T00:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$FICO taking steps to cut out the middlemen credit bureaus. Premarket moves: $FICO +5.71% $EFX -10.95% $TRU -918% New pricing option: direct from $FICO score for $4.95 (50% drop) with a $33 funded loan fee for successful loan closing" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1973679941486313950) 2025-10-02T09:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$FICO Barclays raises PT to $2400 Barclays analysts called the move a clear positive for Fair Isaac as it effectively doubles mortgage-related revenue per score from about $4.95 to $10 while reducing the role of credit bureaus. They raised the earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 2025% across all out-years and lifted its price target on FICO to $2400 from $2000" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1973683670104838400) 2025-10-02T09:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "OpenAI having outsized influence with all these commitments Important to know what you own and why. Quality companies integrating AI into existing profitable (or at minimum revenue generating) lines of business and the picks and shovels. $GOOGL $IESC $AMZN $ASML 3/4 ChatGPT was released on November [--] [----]. Since this date these [--] stocks have accounted for 70% of the increase in the S&P 500's value (blue). The other 30% came from the remaining [---] stocks (orange) https://t.co/2vhtNUVkdh 3/4 ChatGPT was released on November [--] [----]. Since this date these [--] stocks have accounted for 70% of" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1975272260509573270) 2025-10-06T18:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "If you want to play in AI today you either need to have a great application a great model a great chip or a great cloud. Google is trying to have all four of those. There is no other company that has I think more than one. $GOOG $GOOGL Live https://t.co/EZu4yRjmEK Live https://t.co/EZu4yRjmEK" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1975915856095064110) 2025-10-08T13:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Never heard of Whop until recent $SEZL press release. $SEZL continues to expand its partnerships and position itself for growth happy to see it. S&P [---] $SPY is trading near all-time highs. Gold futures tapped $4000. Bitcoin is back at record levels. The markets on fire and interest in learning about stocks on Whop is right there with it. Sales jumped 54% just today. https://t.co/v4pDI5MITE S&P [---] $SPY is trading near all-time highs. Gold futures tapped $4000. Bitcoin is back at record levels. The markets on fire and interest in learning about stocks on Whop is right there with it. Sales" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1975930125377221047) 2025-10-08T14:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@TSOH_Investing When you say initiation do you mean research or your buying" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1977441625262715377) 2025-10-12T18:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$CROX $CROX: The Ugly Shoes That Could Make You Beautiful Returns Mr. Market has on sale a pretty good business one that generated over $1 Billion in operating income over the past [--] months. For roughly: $4.5 Billion market cap 7x earnings with 30% ROIC 20% free cash flow $CROX: The Ugly Shoes That Could Make You Beautiful Returns Mr. Market has on sale a pretty good business one that generated over $1 Billion in operating income over the past [--] months. For roughly: $4.5 Billion market cap 7x earnings with 30% ROIC 20% free cash flow" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1977441757353894149) 2025-10-12T18:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "The credit industry is changing. $SEZL BNPL payment volumes in the US is expected to cross 100B USD ion [----] and grow 24% CAGR over the next [--] years and will reach 1T in [----] compared to 2.2T in revolving credit card or 45%. Full analysis is coming tomorrow https://t.co/aLhT9oYxiK BNPL payment volumes in the US is expected to cross 100B USD ion [----] and grow 24% CAGR over the next [--] years and will reach 1T in [----] compared to 2.2T in revolving credit card or 45%. Full analysis is coming tomorrow https://t.co/aLhT9oYxiK" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1977942921241334011) 2025-10-14T03:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Well also get first taste of true capex spend and short-term ROIC. People are going to be hearing about 100% accelerated depreciation as well. Thats a huge benefit to capex spenders and I dont think average retail is aware of it" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1978254261365465146) 2025-10-15T00:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "On the other hand companies doing this backlog reporting on circular financing may eventually be taken to town. Theres only so much OpenAI can promise. Stalwarts like $GOOG $AMZN $MSFT & $META arent playing that game though. (Zuck might go overboard but I dont see that risk exposure for $GOOG $MSFT $AMZN) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1978254263961747686 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1978254263961747686" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1978254263961747686) 2025-10-15T00:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "New Research Journal post on Substack. Paywalled but free trial access available to check it out. Get a more frequent view into what Im looking at when Im researching a company and investment insights. $STNE https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/research-journal-stone-cor=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/research-journal-stone-cor=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1978262331797701091) 2025-10-15T00:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "New Research Journal post on Substack. Paywalled but free trial access available to check it out. Get a more frequent view into what Im looking at when Im researching a company and my investment insights. $STNE https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/research-journal-stone-cor=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/research-journal-stone-cor=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1978263281111281731) 2025-10-15T00:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@contrarcap @NighthawkTradez @DataDInvesting Its a rule 105b-1 sale. Look it up. He is entitled to enjoy his money and it is all a pre-planned non-adjustable trade schedule. He didnt wake up and book a trade" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1978962601276006551) 2025-10-16T23:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@investwithsheng @TrendSpider This is a hilarious reply" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1979715638131339566) 2025-10-19T01:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@tickerplus Feb-April was prime time commercial GLP1 push. Obviously it is expected to be extremely spiked" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1980373494375542984) 2025-10-20T20:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "What even is this data Ill stick to SEC Filings and data thats not intentionally cherry picked to start at the highest point of commercial GLP1 advertising before the shortage ending in April. More noise. $HIMS $HIMS Hims is a business on the decline as much as the bulls don't want to hear it. https://t.co/KJYPHD95OE $HIMS Hims is a business on the decline as much as the bulls don't want to hear it. https://t.co/KJYPHD95OE" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1980415257018601975) 2025-10-20T23:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$META deal with Blue Owl to build out the Hyperion Data Center is basically like giving someone a down payment to buy a house that you want and have them take out the mortgage in their name to protect your credit score but you move in and pay their mortgage payments and promise to pay back the outstanding value of the house if you decide to leave and they sell it for less than the mortgage loan is worth. While also providing the ability to take on more debt if need because your credit rating is preserved and the debt technically isnt in your name" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1981468763502366739) 2025-10-23T21:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$META has made a deal with Blue Owl to fund the Hyperion data center. Meta is paying for 20% and the remainder is debt issued via a special purpose vehicle managed by blue owl. So $META doesnt have the debt on its books. Creative angle. Meta is developer operator tenant but Blue Owl SPV is the owner. So META has already signed a long term with renewals for up to [--] years (Debt maturity). The lease payments are what is funding the interest payments for the debt. There is also a backstop that if META exits or breaks lease and the property sells below a specified residual value within [--] years" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1981468765285208573) 2025-10-23T21:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "I remain extremely bullish on $META it remains my top position. but I will be cautious of any additional off the book deals. One creative play is OK but things can spiral fast. These companies were funding capex with cash flows and now its turning. Oracle OpenAI circular deals and off-balance sheet SPVs. Time will tell" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1981468767197811201) 2025-10-23T21:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@fiscal_ai $IESC" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1982572986755641680) 2025-10-26T22:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$META is showing pre-effects of the big beautiful bill 100% depreciation on capex. EPS miss is ONE TIME non-cash adjustment. GAAP shows 84% drop in EPS but its one time accounting charge due to being below the minimum corp tax rate due to BBB 100% depreciation allowance. META has deferred tax assets IOUs. Big Beautiful Bill allows for 100% depreciation on capex which is going to result in major tax reductions. This drops them below the minimum corporate tax rate. Because of this their expected payments have to reach the minimum corporate tax rates. This FORCES a "valuation allowance" they" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1983632341491974421) 2025-10-29T20:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Cash flow from Operations 29.9m vs 24.7m YoY. Deferred income taxes added back as non-cash charge off" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1983632816731779423) 2025-10-29T20:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$META essentially saw they will not be able to use their future tax benefits or IOUs from the government and had to write them off. While this is technically missed savings the effects of 100% depreciation in the Big Beut Bill far outweighs the write-off" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1983633057937797304) 2025-10-29T20:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Yes its ok. Its also a bit of accounting weirdness. They are writing down future tax benefits they would have experienced under the old tax code. So its not like they actually are writing down something the bought that is worth less than their paid they are removing future tax savings but those savings are listed in the balance sheet as a deferred asset so they need to write it off via a charge to the income statement. Great quarter overall. Very happy. Executed on all metrics" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1983685299692589132) 2025-10-30T00:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "On $META: Here's my take after the call. $META is down following their earnings release. Some of it is a reaction to the headline EPS number some of it is definitely the capex spend. I do think some of the drag is also the opening statement. Zuck went right into super intelligence and didnt discuss the current core products or company. It had Metaverse vibes. And then he was asked pointed questions about capex expected margins expected products from AI etc. and he answered them vaguely which he noted was due to competition he didnt want to share. But the reality is - $META has not disclosed" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1983887434610807083) 2025-10-30T13:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Writing off Deferred Tax Assets because of the OBBB Tax Changes is a positive not a negative. The net cash savings gain on the Capex/R&D depreciation changes FAR exceeds the future value of currently held DTAs. $META $AMZN $GOOG $GOOGL" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1983891944204857811) 2025-10-30T13:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$META just announced a $25b bond raise to support cash cushion for increased capex spend. This is also adding to the drawdown. 5-40 year timeline horizons on the bonds but great interest only 1% above treasury equivalents. They did similar in [----] buildout cycle start. Likely why they structured blue owl deal the way they did to preserve credit rating in support of this issuance. Zuck is positioning for the play. I obviously dont love debt but its only the second time theyve done a recent major offering the other being [----] with start of capex buildout. They have been primarily cash fueled" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1983908982981832835) 2025-10-30T14:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$GOOG smart investments pay off. $GOOG invested capital increased from $83 Billion in 3Q19 to $303 Billion in 3Q25 Lets be honest: wouldnt we be smugly confident that its ROIC of 29% in 3Q19 would almost certainly go down It went up by [---] bps read my $GOOGL 3Q'25 coverage: https://t.co/rZGHKrN8BS https://t.co/nsaY07syuy $GOOG invested capital increased from $83 Billion in 3Q19 to $303 Billion in 3Q25 Lets be honest: wouldnt we be smugly confident that its ROIC of 29% in 3Q19 would almost certainly go down It went up by [---] bps read my $GOOGL 3Q'25 coverage: https://t.co/rZGHKrN8BS" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1984689825341911094) 2025-11-01T18:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@kakashiii111 Hence why they are positioning themselves with the Blue Owl Deal and the debt offering. So that cash fusion flexibility remains" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1984701247216140736) 2025-11-01T19:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Regarding $ADBE It looks really attractive here. Its on top of my watchlist has been for a while. One immediate thing to keep in mind is that many of the Forward multiple posted on ADBE reflect TTM GAAP EPS vs forward analyst estimates but those are using Adjusted EPS. ADBE currently around [----] PE with a reported [--] Fwd PE but if set as constant for GAAP its more like a [----] FWD PE which is still good. Id jump at around $300 or [--] PE but still see great value here. Its just a matter of prioritizing cash flow and opportunity for me. Regarding threats: I utilize canva for work and personal" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1984995930257469676) 2025-11-02T14:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "25 years ago Larry Paige said Artificial Intelligence would be the ultimate version of Google the ultimate search engine that would understand everything on the web. It would understand exactly what you wanted and it would give you the right thing. $GOOG $GOOGL If the road to AGI continues to be exceptionally capital intensive nobody is better positioned than Alphabet @borrowed_ideas https://t.co/A5KJa00O1F If the road to AGI continues to be exceptionally capital intensive nobody is better positioned than Alphabet @borrowed_ideas https://t.co/A5KJa00O1F" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1985076411938328746) 2025-11-02T20:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "YouTube premium (ad-free) delivers higher gross profit than ad-supported use the opposite of $NFLX. The more $GOOG continues to bundle AI offerings into its premium packages the better and the stickier their ecosystem becomes. $GOOG $GOOGL @QualityInvest5 Both YouTube ads and subscription saw strong growth this quarter. And so looking at YouTube Music and Premium users are on average delivering more value to creators to music media partners and YouTube itself than even ad-supported users do. So in other words on average a @QualityInvest5 Both YouTube ads and subscription saw strong growth" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1985092095695081604) 2025-11-02T21:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Ready for $HIMS to miss AGAIN For me as an investor - last quarter wasnt a miss they guided 530-550 and came in at [---]. It is a bizarre system that has developed that we hold companies to analyst consensus rather than their own guidance. Analyst consensus last quarter was [---] so they set the bar higher than the company and therefore it was a miss What I care most about on a quarter to quarter basis is landing within company guidance range and updates regarding future/long term guide. Looking forward to tomorrows call. Its interesting to see the conversation around $HIMS transition from a 2030" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1985130211713905000) 2025-11-02T23:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Stock_Inf0 More META dip and in particular looking forward to STNE and SEZL earnings. Got earnings for the last of my portfolio this week: HIMS STNE FICO SEZL" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1985141881357926587) 2025-11-03T00:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@EventuallyWLTHY 🙋🏻♂ 12$ original. have averaged up to 30ish as conviction has grown with execution" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1985143536342237256) 2025-11-03T00:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@qualtrim Remove high priced commercial GLP1 quarters and still looks pretty good to me" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1985359285350543605) 2025-11-03T14:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Stock_Inf0 Completely agree. Have a sizable $crox position and looking to increase it as cash flow allows. Happy to at these levels" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1985363779937620164) 2025-11-03T15:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Opportunity cost on the AI Capex spending revolution is sucking returns out of other areas in the market. Over the long term though fundamental execution and growth is always rewarded. $PGR Progressive $PGR with stronger postive EPS revisions (since 1/1/24) than any other U.S. large cap stock. and yet https://t.co/l8OqEWbAlu Progressive $PGR with stronger postive EPS revisions (since 1/1/24) than any other U.S. large cap stock. and yet https://t.co/l8OqEWbAlu" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1985402828215472253) 2025-11-03T17:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HIMS Im a major executing accelerated revenue past peak commercial GLP1 sales. $599m revenue vs Q1 peak of $586m. Subscribers up 21%. MARPU re-acceleration up 8% despite end of commercial GLP1. Great quarter" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1985459396583833621) 2025-11-03T21:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Kross_Roads @jseninvest Yeah but its the toughest YoY comps as well with GLP1 commercial revenue being PYQ3 Q4 and CYQ1. They re-accelerated past peak GLP1 commercial revenue. Thats huge execution and re-accelerated MARPU to near high commercial GLP1 levels" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1985471938878156853) 2025-11-03T22:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "We are also comping to YoY commercial GLP1 quarters when we experienced the high growth spikes. Investors were spoiled during those numbers. Ill gladly take 49% revenue growth and a re-acceleration to revenue greater than peak commercial GLP1 heights in Q1. Overall a solid execution during a transitional year" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1985483567351173560) 2025-11-03T23:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Couldnt agree more. I was in HIMS well before GLP1 it was never part of my thesis. However I was just as excited as anyone for the shortage and ability to generate growth introduce new subscribers and generate excess cash. But it was ALWAYS temporary. Add in the benefit of opening up the door for personalized GLP1 and all-in-all it was a major success and seized opportunity. Unfortunately the flip side of that has been the creation of unrealistic expectations comps and a post-commercial GLP1 hangover on sentiment. Since the shortage ended I felt it would take 3-4 consistent quarters of" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1985506546961490332) 2025-11-04T00:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "👀 Niccols shaking things up. $sbux Starbucks said it would sell control of its operations in China to Boyu Capital in a deal that values the business at $4 billion one of the largest divestments of a China unit by a global consumer company in recent years. More here: https://t.co/VZcfNKJ6My Starbucks said it would sell control of its operations in China to Boyu Capital in a deal that values the business at $4 billion one of the largest divestments of a China unit by a global consumer company in recent years. More here: https://t.co/VZcfNKJ6My" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1985584508364538150) 2025-11-04T05:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Good thread on $UBER and they reported today. Continuing to accelerate KPIs across the board. Trips 3.5b +22% MAPCs 189m +17% EBITDA 2.26b +33% Revenue 13.4b +20% Operating income 1.06b +69% EBITDA continues to scale faster than revenue. Of note regarding the big EPS beat: There is a big tax benefit of 4.9b in tax asset release that spiked net income. Last year it was 1.7b - without it net income wouldve been 1.7b this Q. If we adjust both CY and PY net income went from .9b to 1.7b. Thats a big driver of EPS beat. But its a real asset its not just an accounting gimmick. Utilizing a tax asset" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1985709891445535052) 2025-11-04T14:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$DUOL valuation is just coming back to earth. DUOL has good numbers that look interesting but its like [---] PE. its guiding growth at 37%. thats still very expensive. A switch to slightly less risk on and it takes massive growth to support massive multiples. In addition - disruption isnt out of the question. Google Labs currently has a variety of educational apps to learn on specifically regarding languages. And $GOOG translate just launched a practice feature that includes streaks and gamification. People have been learning languages for all of time DUOL has been a fun new avenue to casually" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1986214791858225481) 2025-11-05T23:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Look at these $GOOG Gemini projections from new Citi AI industry adoption report. Gemini: [----] AI Rev: $298m 2025E AI Rev: $8705m 2030E AI rev: $341609m 🤯 [--] year CAGR: 108% [----] Mkt Share: 4% 2025E Mkt Share: 20% 2030E Mkt Share: 35% On last weeks call Sundar noted: Adoption is rapidly accelerating. In Q3 revenue from products built on our generative AI models grew more than 200% year-over-year. $GOOG $GOOGL 251103_Updating AI Industry Model on Accelerating Adoption - CITI (1) Citi raised its estimates for AI service revenues for [--------]. (2) *AI service revenues are projected to grow from" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1986256706754490696) 2025-11-06T02:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I am becoming ever more confident OpenAI IS their own AI bubble. Sam Altman opened the door and invited the hyper scalers to the poker game but hasnt realized that OpenAI is the fish at the table. Oh gawd. https://t.co/cYUoJvGNzD Oh gawd. https://t.co/cYUoJvGNzD" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1986275676832616572) 2025-11-06T03:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$META has a net debt to EBITDA ratio of .15 if you include their recent debt issuance. Its a net debt to EBITDA ratio of .42 if you include this off balance debt. People are spoiled by the bulletproof balance sheets of these companies. Comparing META to [----] Enron is wild. 🦔Meta is hiding $30 billion in AI infrastructure debt off its balance sheet using special purpose vehicles echoing the financial engineering that triggered Enron's collapse and the [----] mortgage crisis. Morgan Stanley estimates tech firms will need $800 billion from private https://t.co/9uMcW4zv36 🦔Meta is hiding $30" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1986615853786243100) 2025-11-07T02:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@JerBearRN @wearehims @wearehers Im pretty sure the majority of Medicaid does not cover GLP1 for weight loss. Unless I am mistaken" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1986617566668759421) 2025-11-07T02:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Knowing that just about none of my holdings have mega commitments from OpenAI helps me sleep well at night. Exception being $AMZN w a $38b multi-yr AWS commitment. However AWS has an annual run rate of $108b and continues to emphasize they are supply constrained. 😴 $META $AMZN $GOOG $OAI https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1986806975573717431 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1986806975573717431" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1986806975573717431) 2025-11-07T14:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@sama Trust me bro @sama @OpenAI $oai" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1986968114534232214) 2025-11-08T01:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@BoringBiz_ Lol $META net debt to EBITDA ratio is .42 including off balance sheet debt. This is a hilarious take. https://x.com/manuinvests/status/1986615853786243100s=46 $META has a net debt to EBITDA ratio of .15 if you include their recent debt issuance. Its a net debt to EBITDA ratio of .42 if you include this off balance debt. People are spoiled by the bulletproof balance sheets of these companies. Comparing META to [----] Enron is wild. https://x.com/manuinvests/status/1986615853786243100s=46 $META has a net debt to EBITDA ratio of .15 if you include their recent debt issuance. Its a net" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1986969887860789385) 2025-11-08T01:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I remember when $GOOG OpenAI didnt so much pass the baton more like Google took it back. Glad to have been a buyer throughout all of the negative sentiment" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1987195154726343056) 2025-11-08T16:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Regarding $META $600b commitment: This isnt an additional $600b of capex spend. It is hyperbolic and includes all costs and expenses. Thats why it includes investment in infrastructure and jobs in the statement. CFO released a clarification after his White House meeting when he initially said it that essentially stated we consider this to include all US opex spending and the periphery jobs it also creates. So if we assume that - it includes trailing 9mo YTD spending of 82b on RD SGA COGS etc. (round down freely to take some out) FY24 total was 95b and META is on pace to exceed that. Guidance" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1987229078769049871) 2025-11-08T18:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$CROX continues to prioritize returning shareholder value through buybacks purchasing more then 4% of shares outstanding in Q3. Over the past TTM $CROX has purchased approx. 10% of shares outstanding. Very happy to see management continue and accelerate this strategy at these price levels. "At quarter-end $927 million of share repurchase authorization remained available for future repurchases. .and there may be tariff reprieve on the horizon. 4/ The market still remembers the early-2000s boom-and-bust story. But the company that once sold rubber clogs is now a global lifestyle brand. And" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1987285234346565880) 2025-11-08T22:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$HIMS This should not be unexpected and isnt the doom and gloom its portrayed to be. It is important to note that this graph aligns perfectly with the launch and headlines of commercial glp1. They launched Q2 last year so was the driver of spike in web traffic starting in May [----] that ended 4.30.25. So all YoY metrics on this time scale need to be viewed from that perspective imo. Many of these declining chart posts are cherry picking dates intentionally most likely as well. All these metrics were reported declining last quarter and everyone was doom and gloom and $HIMS beat revenue. For" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1988021614231904467) 2025-11-10T23:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@DataDInvesting GLP1 allows HSA so they have the functionality. Id assume yes" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1989172907151430090) 2025-11-14T03:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Norbert Lou of Punch Card Management opened a concentrated position in $CROX during Q2 and increased the position by 19% this quarter. Love to see it. Not sure who Norbert Lou is Google him" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1989508337101410455) 2025-11-15T01:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ Regarding $FIG decrease in Gross Profit Margins FIG has historically had a Gross Margins at or above 90% but the recent reporting shows some changes. Since [----] there has been a jump in the Cost of Revenues. At surface level it is difficult to see what's going on let's look" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1990130773324681353) 2025-11-16T18:52Z [----] followers, 19.9K engagements "2/ The large jumps in Cost of Revenue and therefore the decrease in gross margins is due to a Tender Offer in [----] and the IPO in [----]. Tender Offer: May [----] IPO: July 2025" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1990130775228928379) 2025-11-16T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3/ Regarding the Tender offer: in simple terms in this case a tender offer is an invitation for outside investors to purchase shares held by employees and initial investors in the private company. Figma did it because of the failed Adobe acquisition. To provide liquidity compensation and encourage employee retention $FIG wanted employees to be able to cash in on some of their shares after the unexpected deal collapse" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1990130777208549476) 2025-11-16T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/ The way it works is they allow outside investors to purchase shares from current employees and initial investors. Companies periodically fair value the value of their employee held shares. Since this Tender Offer was priced ABOVE that existing value - due to GAAP accounting FIG has to consider that change as compensation for the employees. Example: If the booked fair value of employee shares was $13.19 and the tender offer is transacted at $23.19 then there is a $10/per share additional compensation expense that needs to be accounted for in Cost of Revenue" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1990130779226009859) 2025-11-16T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5/ This is then offset by an entry to the Stockholder equity as Paid In Capital aka increase in valuation of the equity and is added back into the Cash Flow statement because it is a non cash transaction only for accounting purposes due to GAAP rules about recording compensation" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1990130780845003169) 2025-11-16T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6/ Here we can see on the $FIG S-1 that the Cost of Revenue jumped due to the Tender" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1990130782665363622) 2025-11-16T18:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "9/ This is a breakdown of the Tender Offer impact on different line items in the financials. All of the below are adjustments to expenses based off the Tender but remember - these are one time and non cash and are offset by Paid in Capital into the Statement of stockholder equity/Balance sheet to account for increased equity valuation" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1990130788872970253) 2025-11-16T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "10/ Now to 2025: A very similar event is triggered with an IPO as the IPO is priced above the Fair Value of insider shares held. This has a dual impact as many RSUs also get vested during an IPO and must be recognized as compensation immediately as they have been re-valued at a higher fair value by the IPO and the employees earned that re-valuation. Again - this is offset in Cash Flows and Stockholder Equity/Balance Sheet with Paid in capital. (its not actually paid in its an adjustment to net everything out/revalue it). The IPO was 33$ per share so its another 10$ per share jump if we assume" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1990130791213641918) 2025-11-16T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "11/ IPO impact is visible in the Cost of Revenue and the offsetting Paid In Capital on the Statement Stockholder Equity which is rolled into the Balance Sheet" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1990130793734078786) 2025-11-16T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "12/ In summary - $FIGS Gross Margin compression is temporary artificially depressed by [--] years of liquidity events and related SBC that needs to be recognized per GAAP accounting rules. They should return to norm next year all being equal. But their SBC will be more elevated in past due to new valuation. Also of note: $FIG Adjusted margins were reported at 86% last Q. This may remain temporarily below 90%s in short term as they are also experiencing inference compute cost from making the AI Figma Make available to all. Mgmt noted on their recent call that they currently are not enforcing" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1990130796456292597) 2025-11-16T18:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@buccocapital @QualityInvest5 Main dip is not the cost but the IPO accounting impact. The Figma Make impact dropped it from like 90% to 86% but the drop to 69% is IPO SBC re-valuation related. https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1990130773324681353s=20 1/ Regarding $FIG decrease in Gross Profit Margins FIG has historically had a Gross Margins at or above 90% but the recent reporting shows some changes. Since [----] there has been a jump in the Cost of Revenues. At surface level it is difficult to see what's going on let's look https://t.co/hNpt3atSr0" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1990145457448706454) 2025-11-16T19:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@JamesSchladt @buccocapital @QualityInvest5 MGMT did note they are not capping use of tokens in order to support adoption but eventually will and will charge for over usage which in theory will offset the inference compute cost but for the time being its a grow adoption at a loss strategy" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1990251892166037766) 2025-11-17T02:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Crocs when Get with the times. Stock price problems solved. $crox $nvda $goog" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1991482731126223292) 2025-11-20T12:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Regarding $NVDA inventories: The law of large numbers must also be taken into account here. A 158% increase in inventories vs a 68% increase in revenue are vastly different numbers proportionally due to the base. Inventories increased 4.82b QoQ and revenues increased 10.26b. Looking at strictly percentage graphs skews perception. And the ability to maintain acceleration in revenue at this scale is extremely difficult. $NVDA @TravisHoium I think people are nitpicking here. Nvidia inventories always increase July - Oct in preparation of holiday season. The middle of that chart is an outlier due" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1991514140762853743) 2025-11-20T14:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "NVDA also has a gaming segment. But yes - the majority of inventory is undoubtedly work-in-progress unfinished DC compute products which are most certainly pre-booked and positioning for communicated demand increases. As I noted. The thing is though - the chart I was replying to was a inventory days chart not a total inventory amount. It doesnt measure what is being inventoried only its length of time - hence why seasonal buildups would be evident. It is even called out in the NVDA call. Even so I made a follow up post about comparing revenue growth and inventory growth that leaves me as" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1991608662507295108) 2025-11-20T20:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Yeah - FTC evidence tells a different story for $META. The social media market may be consolidating a bit but META is the beneficiary. Also - data can be cherry picked. The reality of the originally posted graphs is a return to the norm of social media use after 2020-2022 spikes driven by the pandemic and the increased use of social media during that time which carried through via temporary habitual behaviors and a slow return to social norms. Also - the graphs depict approximately a total drop of [--] minutes or so in average time spent. In addition not shown in the graph is the North American" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1992040577370644936) 2025-11-22T01:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Also - if you go to the source cited in those graphs GWIs report - the graph does not accurately reflect the reported data. See attached highlights from report showing Gen Z at [--] hours [--] minutes in [----]. Additional highlights added - Gen Z remains the highest engaged social media cohort ever. Even if trends were to suggest that usage drops at a certain maturity of age future generations are showing faster and earlier rapid use adoption than those that preceded them and I anticipate this will only continue" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1992053377920807156) 2025-11-22T02:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "I agree. Important note is also that removing the non-cash Hey Dude impairment (and recent tax benefit) brings $CROX adj TTM PE to the 6s and it has a fwd PE of around [--]. Looks good to me at these levels especially taking FCF generation and buyback yield and priority into account" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1992351950751318080) 2025-11-22T21:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "I am glad I was a buyer of $GOOG all the way down through the $150s and as low as $143 as I did with $META in [----] chasing as low as $123. I still hold those shares and more today. Know your thesis and follow your conviction" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1993102796569428376) 2025-11-24T23:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Ill say it again No analyst coverage and no hype. Just a quality company following its fundamentals. a thing of beauty. No noise necessary. Up 123% on my position. $IESC No analyst coverage and no hype. Just a quality company following its fundamentals and growing back into its valuation. $IESC - IES Holdings Quietly up 53% since opening my position in February. Opened at $230 and added all the way down to $162. https://t.co/V4cd3lsWEZ No analyst coverage and no hype. Just a quality company following its fundamentals and growing back into its valuation. $IESC - IES Holdings Quietly up 53%" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1993775479359459777) 2025-11-26T20:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I typically reserve 6-8% of my portfolio for 1-3% positions on what I view as asymmetric opportunities with significant upside potential. If the companies continue to execute and conviction builds I add to the position ignore cost basis anchoring. Example - $HIMS at $12 at its first profitable quarter. 2x on a 2% position is the equivalent of 20% in a 10% position. Ill take that on plays I feel are at an inflection point with significant upside return" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1993779595602993424) 2025-11-26T20:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@LiebermanAustin Let winners win. 16% on a megacap quality compounder with tons of optionality Ill take it all day. $GOOG" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1993780357834166756) 2025-11-26T20:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I spoke to soon. $IESC officially covered by [--] analyst as of October with a BUY rating. Following a record Q425 and FY25 we raise our IESC target price to $440 based on a 5-year DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model using a Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) approach and strengthened visibility into FY26 from a higher backlog base. At our target IESC would trade at approximately 16x EV/EBITDA NTM and 21x P/E NTM levels that assume continued strength in core segments and stable execution across the portfolio. A few more and maybe well start getting an earnings call. $IESC" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994125000148726026) 2025-11-27T19:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@mastersinvest @TheEconomist Social media broke sentiment surveys" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994242089320681518) 2025-11-28T03:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "1/ On $UBER: Addressing Insurance Reserves Recently Cedar Street Research released a bear case breakdown / short take on Ubers insurance reserves. The core argument is that Uber is essentially operating as a unregulated under-capitalized insurance company and that its Free Cash Flow is mirage propped up by insurance float and SBC. Yes there are some valid points in the take specifically regarding a lack of transparency however I feel they are missing the forest for the trees. Heads up this is a @BillAckman length thread. UBER INSURANCE RESERVES - LIKELY UNDERREPORTED $UBER insurance reserves" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994513631728333090) 2025-11-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "2/ Regarding Free Cash Flow: I agree. To get an accurate picture on Ubers Free Cash Flow or Owners Earnings we should remove the Stock Based Comp and Accrued Insurance Reserve add ins. SBC is an real dilutive expense and Accrued Insurance Reserves should be considered restricted cash for future payouts that is not available to shareholders. Adjusting for this brings Ubers true organic FCF from 8.6b to 4.13b. The thing is this isnt a mirage. I am well aware of the FCF multiple I am paying for Uber as are many of its well-known investors. The reality is that FCF is rapidly growing and the" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994513634895245384) 2025-11-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3/ Cedar Street's criticism leans on the James River situation in [----] and the follow up $1.1b adjustment in [----]. Ubers balance sheet has drastically improved since then. Even after accounting for the $1.1b adjustment did the company collapse as this case implies No Uber absorbed the cost reset their insurance reserves adjusted insurance accrual set asides and continued executing as a growing business. This case is making it seem like 50% of uber drivers are going to wake up one day and drive off a cliff with a car full of people. That simply is not reality. All insurance businesses have to" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994513638242279877) 2025-11-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/ The reserves did not magically get better once in Aleka. - Cedar Street Correct. There was no magic Uber admitted the reserves were under capitalized and adjusted the reserves with a $1.1b true up and generated $2.3b in real organic FCF anyways (SBC and Accrued Insurance removed) despite the correction. AND Uber is on pace to double that real FCF in under a year with the TTM FCF currently at $4.13b" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994513640234320345) 2025-11-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "5/ Uber has reached an inflection point and their organic Free Cash Flow growth (from operations ads and delivery etc) is accelerating faster than its accrued insurance liability. Ubers reserves are keeping pace with growth: Changes in Insurance accruals remains positive this means they are adding to reserves at a greater pace than payouts. The float is growing not shrinking. Note: Mgmt guided moderating insurance pressure reserve change remains positive but is stabilizing/contracting" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994513642444796336) 2025-11-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6/ In [----] Ubers insurance float was its life line for operating cash today it is a benefit that accounts for a shrinking 28% of operational cash flow. (SBC is left out of this chart to focus on the impact of accrued insurance). Note: 2025e Quarterly 625m estimated accrued insurance change as it is stabilizing" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994513645599166481) 2025-11-28T21:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "7/ Uber is continuing to set aside reserves at the same pace it is growing its business. Reserve Ratio = Total Insurance Reserves/Mobility Gross Booking 2024: Total Insurance Reserves: $9786m [----] Gross Bookings: $162773m [----] Reserve Ratio: 6%" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994513648942027122) 2025-11-28T21:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "8/ Q3 [--] Total Insurance Reserves: $11879 Q3 [--] Gross Bookings: $49740 (Run Rate of $198960m) Q3 [--] Reserve Ratio: 6%" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994513652284829826) 2025-11-28T21:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "10/ Read the full write-up on my substack and subscribe for more content: On Uber: Addressing Insurance Reserves https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/on-uber-addressing-insurance-reservesr=fhw3n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/on-uber-addressing-insurance-reservesr=fhw3n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994513657146085680) 2025-11-28T21:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Youre right. Im not an actuary and I dont have proper loss triangles as you noted they arent available. So I made my case using available information. Im not making an actuarial case Im making an investment case and addressing concerns. This isnt [----] - $UBER has partnerships with $PGR progressive Liberty Mutual and more. $UBER takes first losses with its primary insurance as it should but its not a black sheep for insurers as you imply. And guess where Lyfts captive insurance is Hawaii. Hawaii is a common place for this because it has many regulatory benefits to support captive insurance." [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994518340144857503) 2025-11-28T21:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "And $UBER maintains a $12b insurance reserve to cover the policies written by the insurance professionals such as progressive and benefits from their pricing and claims services while accepting the risk. As they should. I dont see the argument here $UBER maintains reserves to insure itself and taps into partners for operational expertise and some coverage (as well as their own personal ride-share coversge for waiting drivers). Im not arguing there shouldnt been more transparency in $UBER disclosures. Im not arguing they havent under reserved in the past. What I am saying is they ate that" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994522364336279829) 2025-11-28T21:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Revenue exploded because of a variety of things A [----] freight acquisition that 6xd freight revenue from 300m to 1.8b a [----] accounting change by UK required them to recognize revenue as gross instead of net which boosted revenue by 1.4b without adding any actual increased mobility miles or risk. it was purely accounting and $UBER delivery growth was in high 20s low 30s - insuring drivering burritos is much different than insuring drivers with [--] strangers in the car. Why did revenue explore +80% while reserves only when up 14% - tell me you know absolutely nothing about $UBER beyond tossing" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994533999432073354) 2025-11-28T22:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Certain business models can cloud headline financial numbers $UBER is an example. Its insurance accounting can distort headline Free Cash Flow metrics but that doesnt mean it isnt a compelling investment opportunity. Check out my recent write up digging into $UBER insurance reserves and dispelling the bear perspective. https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/on-uber-addressing-insurance-reservesr=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/on-uber-addressing-insurance-reservesr=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994824005681889359) 2025-11-29T17:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "This is the answer. The idea that companies will hand over their hard earned brand to META AI is an extreme reach and I am a huge $META bull. I run a small business and use Canva Adobe and use $META as our primarily marketing tool. $META AI will tailor posts to particular audiences and alter engagement add ons etc but the idea that it will develop an entire marketing campaign for an established large brand is unrealistic. Will micro and small businesses hand over control to $META Sure I can see that but will Northface No" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994832338019131521) 2025-11-29T18:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "BNPL has existed for decades in the form of traditional credit cards. Headlines highlighting BNPL through a negative lens vs traditional credit card spending is entirely misleading. BNPL is often a more ethical and responsible form of credit use than revolving credit cards that are accepted norms in US consumer spending" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994879648031797703) 2025-11-29T21:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "BNPL has existed for decades in the form of traditional credit cards. Headlines highlighting BNPL through a negative lens vs traditional credit card spending is entirely misleading. BNPL is often a more ethical and responsible form of credit use than revolving credit cards that are accepted norms in US consumer spending. $SEZL @DeItaone Adobe says Buy Now Pay Later use jumped contributing $761.8M on Black Friday while mobile drove 58.6% of purchasessigns shoppers are stretching budgets and shopping on phones even as totals hit records. Cyber Monday still set to lead. @DeItaone Adobe says Buy" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994879949422170327) 2025-11-29T21:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CapexAndChill Great write up. $MELI looking good here and I hope to have the opportunity to add it to my portfolio. Appreciate your content and knowledge on the company" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994892513765986587) 2025-11-29T22:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$MELI has been on the top of my watchlist and is looking attractive after recent pullbacks. Diversified LatAm $AMZN-style e-commerce and fintech giant. Credit port growing 83%. Ads rev growing 63% & just getting started. [--] consecutive quarters of 30% rev growth. I don't claim to be an expert on valuation but if there is one business I feel good about valuing it has to be $MELI Let's take a walk through determining its valuation conservatively. The Setup: $MELI is not an e-commerce stock. Valuing it on a blended P/E multiple will make https://t.co/sRgmYzQ2ZU I don't claim to be an expert on" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994902678443626549) 2025-11-29T22:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Kathleen_Tyson_ @chigrl If thats what you have to say about BNPL I cant imagine the level of torture and punishment you wish on credit card companies" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994904936258179215) 2025-11-29T23:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$MELI looks like a very compelling investment - but it is impotent to note that businesses that use cash as a product have distorted headline FCF numbers - banks brokerages insurances payments etc. MELI does take the extra step of providing a footnote with adj FCF in their SEC filings removing the fintech impact because of this. Removing the inflating impacts of their fintech segment brings MELI TTM FCF down from a headline 8.6b to approx 1.33b of true FCF a 1.3% FCF yield vs the deceiving 8.2% headline FCF yield. How do you guys feel about $MELI I have heard nothing but great thing They are" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1994946678118347230) 2025-11-30T01:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$GOOG completely delivered with Gemini [--]. I run an expanding small business non-profit company with two locations and [--] employees. We are reliant on fundraising and grant funding to provide our free services. For those unfamiliar grant writing is an intensive time consuming research heavy and data driven undertaking. Gemini Pro and in particular utilizing @NotebookLM have been the equivalent of hiring a full-time research assistant. Having the ability to upload dense data heavy research papers and reports to @NotebookLM along with all of our previously written grant reports and internal" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1995230332124110849) 2025-11-30T20:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Stock_Inf0 $HIMS and $SEZL 🔥" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1995231117792969007) 2025-11-30T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ $SEZL is breaking the model of BNPL. While most fintechs struggle to balance growth and profitability Sezzle is literally off the chart. 76% Revenue Growth 60% Gross Margins Trading at 14x [--] Earnings This is a "Rule of 165" company trading at a suppressed value. 🧵👇" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1995260871325430264) 2025-11-30T22:37Z [----] followers, 24.2K engagements "2/ $SEZL flipped the script. Competitors (Affirm/Klarna) fight for low-margin merchant business. Sezzle pivoted to a Consumer-First model. The result While peers hover near breakeven or losses Sezzles Net Profit Margins have exploded to 22-28%" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1995260876488646776) 2025-11-30T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "3/ $SEZL's business is not just transaction fees its a Subscription Compounder model. They are converting users into "Sezzle Anywhere" & "Sezzle Premium" subscribers (high LTV). Subscribers order 10x more often. Subscription revenue is recurring & high margin" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1995260882809393397) 2025-11-30T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "4/Here is the alpha. $SEZL's price ran this year but sentiment has brought it down to earth yet Earnings continue to grow. Valuation has actually compressed. We are looking at: 18x TTM PE 14x Fwd PE (26) FWD PEG Ratio [----] Growth is cheap when sentiment is down" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1995260889251938447) 2025-11-30T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "6/Management is obsessed with "Profitable Growth." CEO Charlie Youakim owns 44% of the float has never sold a share and quotes Buffett on calls. The alignment shows in the ROE ROIC and ROCE. Its They're nearly 100%. Capital efficiency is their differentiator" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1995260901243683186) 2025-11-30T22:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "7/ "But what about subprime defaults" At these multiples defaults are priced in. Loss provisions are stable (3.1%) and within guidance. BNPL is a liquidity lifeline for their customers - they prioritize paying Sezzle to keep the account open" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1995260904775278719) 2025-11-30T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "8/ Keep in mind: The Q4/Q1 Accounting Glitch. Q4 (Holidays): Sezzle provisions for losses upfront depressing Net Income). Q1 (Payoff): Sezzle recognizes the Revenue when paid. Don't get shaken out by "noisy" quarterly accounting bumps like last year. Look at the big picture" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1995260908227182718) 2025-11-30T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "9/ $SEZL is a great setup: ✅ Founder-led (High Insider Ownership) ✅ Pivoted to High-LTV Subscriptions ✅ Profitable & FCF Positive ✅ Valuation Disconnect Im long $SEZL and adding. Check out my full deep dive here: https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/sezl-flipping-the-script-on-bnplr=fhw3n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/sezl-flipping-the-script-on-bnplr=fhw3n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1995260911360016398) 2025-11-30T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$PGR Most data driven auto insurance provider. Best in class ROE. Best in class combined ratio that hovers in the mid to high 80s. The combined ratio 84.2%. That is one of the most profitable combined ratios in the industry. Their stated goal is like 90%. That means they pay out 85% of premiums in losses and operational expenses so for all written premiums they make 15% in profit. largest market share unbelievable growth cagr with revenue and eps trading at extremely reasonable valuation suppressed by tariff concerns and rate cuts + AI big tech opportunity cost utilizing data to individualize" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1995314669817380983) 2025-12-01T02:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@QualityInvest5 But the thing is youre not seeing the big picture that someday they will. so they say" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1995335134241829262) 2025-12-01T03:32Z [---] followers, 11.6K engagements "$UBER continues to diversify and strengthen beyond its core ride-sharing business. UberBusiness+UberHealth Delivery/Eats ( retail exposure) Click-work Freight Ads +strengthening rev base w UberOne + launch of experiences & start to finish travel services Retail @Uber grew 300% this Black Friday in the US powered by new partners like @BestBuy @HomeDepot @Petco and @Sephora. Consumer tech Christmas lights and other holiday must-haves like.storage totes https://t.co/400zqFkz1M Retail @Uber grew 300% this Black Friday in the US powered by new partners like @BestBuy @HomeDepot @Petco and @Sephora." [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1995882792354242794) 2025-12-02T15:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "While we are on $UBER great thread by @CapexAndChill. @dkhos is an amazing CEO. He has successfully navigated $UBER through a massive pivot from a cash-burning growth at all costs company to a disciplined compounder. He is diversifying the business and solidified the revenue base with UberOne subscriptions while positioning $UBER as the best-in-class partner/aggregator for AVs. Combined with a shift toward GAAP profitability and a $20B buyback the company is balancing growth with capital discipline. Dara runs $UBER like he runs his earnings calls: straight to the point and no BS. Check one" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1995915593980014902) 2025-12-02T17:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "AI traffic share is normalizing. $GOOG vs $OAI And the market is waking up to the unit economics. Google: Zero marginal cost distribution. Prints cash. OpenAI: Massive compute costs per user. Burns cash. Thats Operating Leverage. Who do you really think is going to win" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1996223599540113494) 2025-12-03T14:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Not only is Gemini taking market share it's becoming the stickiest product in AI. Users are spending more time per session in Gemini than ChatGPT. Yes - there was an initial lag but Gemini post-1.0 is a vastly different animal. $GOOG" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1996223611628130441) 2025-12-03T14:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "1/ $DECK is dislocated. I talk a lot about price vs. value. $DECK is a great example. Since the start of the year the stock price has decoupled from the fundamental reality of the business. Price is noise execution matters. And right now $DECK looks attractive. 🧵👇" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1996297973639324074) 2025-12-03T19:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "2/ $DECK WAS too expensive agreed. Earlier this year the multiple got ahead of itself. But we have now returned to earth. The stock is trading near 13x PE levels we haven't seen in years. You are buying a compounder with 30%+ EPS growth for a multiple for low-growth companies" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1996297979637158057) 2025-12-03T19:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3/Management knows its cheap and is returning value to shareholders. They are aggressively eating up their own shares. FY25: Repurchased $567M at $149/share. Q2 FY26: Accelerated buybacks 2.6M shares $282M at $109/share. They have another $2.2B authorized (16% of the market cap). This provides a floor the stock while accelerating EPS. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1996297985248919629 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1996297985248919629" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1996297985248919629) 2025-12-03T19:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "4/ $DECK does not have to spend heavily or discount deeply to maintain this growth. While peers like $NKE see margins compress $DECK is expanding. $DECK operating margins remain best-in-class (23%) and gross margins are holding near record highs (56-57%). They are growing revenue faster than expenses. That is the definition of leverage" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1996297990504403170) 2025-12-03T19:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "5/ The fundamental growth hasn't stopped. Despite the tariff headlines and macro fear the revenue and earnings continue to go up and to the right. We are still seeing double-digit growth in HOKA and continued strength in UGG. The business is bigger and more profitable than it was when the stock was $200+" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1996297995604701375) 2025-12-03T19:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "7/ So why the sell-off Tariff Guidance conservative management and headlines about consumer softness. They noted 1H was focused on wholesale (lower margin) to beat potential tariff impacts shifting focus to DTC for the 2H holiday season. There is short term uncertainty but for long-term this short-term noise is what creates an attractive entry. h/t: @AIStockSavvy" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1996298877259907499) 2025-12-03T19:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "8/ Zero Debt. 13x PE Valuation. Aggressive Buybacks. Chris Bloomstran (I am a fan of his investing philosophies) recently opened a position and continues to add. It may take time for the sentiment to shift but I am happy to sit in this name while the company prints cash and buyback shares. I added earlier this year and have continued to do so at record low multiples. $DECK is re-gaining momentum with recent analyst upgrades. The setup here looks attractive. Take a look if you haven't. Keep in mind: There is always the built in retail risk but at these valuations I am willing to buy and hold" [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1996298950228504646) 2025-12-03T19:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@NanoBanana - I built this chart on @fiscal_ai and nano bananad the shaded multiple expansion area onto it. Honestly 'nano bananad' is prime material for the 'my product is a verb' hall of fame along with googled. @GoogleAI @sundarpichai $GOOG $GOOGL 1/ $DECK is dislocated. I talk a lot about price vs. value. $DECK is a great example. Since the start of the year the stock price has decoupled from the fundamental reality of the business. Price is noise execution matters. And right now $DECK looks attractive. 🧵👇 https://t.co/3Kq4c25cV3 1/ $DECK is dislocated. I talk a lot about price vs." [X Link](https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1996321781817262447) 2025-12-03T20:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@ManuInvests Manu Invests
Manu Invests posts on X about $uber, $goog, meta, ai the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-------] #
- [--] Week [-------] +64%
- [--] Month [-------] -59%
- [--] Months [---------] +10,095%
Mentions: [---] #
- [--] Week [--] -19%
- [--] Month [---] -39%
- [--] Months [---] +1,554%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +4.50%
- [--] Month [-----] +22%
- [--] Months [-----] +1,501%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence stocks #4299 technology brands finance automotive brands countries cryptocurrencies social networks fashion brands currencies celebrities
Social topic influence $uber #302, $goog #35, meta #5116, ai, $meta #92, business #3111, $googl #2680, in the, insurance, $hims
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @billackman @uber @qualityinvest5 @capexandchill @dissectmarkets @dkhos @joecarlsonshow @fiscalai @thewiseic @balajikm @chitchatstocks @grok @ruchernchong @kyleadamsstocks @latticeinvestor @nuro @widemoatczar @fabj86 @realroseceline @thelongaj
Top assets mentioned Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Metadium (META) Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) Sezzle Inc. Common Stock (SEZL) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) StoneCo Ltd. Class A Common Shares (STNE) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Crocs, Inc. (CROX) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Deckers Outdoor, Corp. (DECK) Intuit Inc. (INTU) S&P Global Inc (SPGI) Adobe, Inc. (ADBE) MercadoLibre Inc (MELI) IES Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (IESC) Now Coin (NOW) Mastercard, Inc. (MA) Fair Isaac, Corp. (FICO) Progressive Corp (PGR) Novo-Nordisk (NVO)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"I am still adding and see great value in these [--] companies $AMZN below $220. $IESC below $240. $GOOG below $180. Companies that have recently caught my interest. If you have any insight or thoughts I would be happy to hear: $DFH $TBLA $DECK"
X Link 2025-05-27T01:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Launching at-home lab testing and TRT will be the next major catalyst for $HIMS. It is not priced in"
X Link 2025-06-15T01:40Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@QualityInvest5 My biggest and most bullish position. $META continues to execute"
X Link 2025-06-17T01:56Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"It might be a little early but I think the past year has been Googles [----] $META moment. I was a buyer of $META then and Im a buyer of $GOOG now"
X Link 2025-06-19T21:13Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"The majority of stablecoin transactions will use $V Visa and $MA Mastercard networks. Quote me. Non-issue"
X Link 2025-06-20T16:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@MMMTwealth Completely agree. With my projections using conservative assumptions $HIMS hits 2-3x in [----]. Im pretty confident the model to 3x is entirely realistic. Good to see others landing within same ranges"
X Link 2025-06-21T14:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$HIMS on track for 2-3x from here by [----]. Check out my writeup if interested in how I got there: https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/hims-growing-into-its-valuation-andr=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios If you want [--] high growth smaller caps then look here (1-5) 👇 If you want [--] compounding giants then look here (6-10) 👇 HIGH GROWTH 🧵 [--]. Hims & Hers $HIMS An obvious one to start but let me show you why $HIMS is still a bargain despite it's 190% over the last year. https://t.co/Rxx3fKDvKh https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/hims-growing-into-its-valuation-andr=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios If"
X Link 2025-06-21T14:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@realroseceline I am. Its 10% of portfolio and I have been and will keep buying into the weakness in pricing"
X Link 2025-06-21T15:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@joecarlsonshow The contrarian in my is screaming about Adobe but I just dont know what the future holds. Constantly debating with myself"
X Link 2025-06-21T16:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@Kross_Roads I know you said take this w a grain of salt but LULU reported lower customers and lower avg order value. Active Customers of 2.6m an 8% decrease compared to 2.8m in the same period last year. Im sure individual stores vary but It is factually less customers"
X Link 2025-06-22T21:53Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@Kross_Roads People keep saying the same thing about SBUX but SBUX keeps telling everyone same stores sales and foot traffic are declining. The beauty of earnings reports is that we dont need to rely on visual anecdotes for the data"
X Link 2025-06-22T21:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Spike_1567 @CreativeCap89 HIMS sells generic finasteride in pill form in addition to their topical product. This post is incorrect"
X Link 2025-06-23T00:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"MASTERCARD FISERV EXPAND PARTNERSHIP TO PUSH STABLECOIN USE Mastercard $MA is teaming up with Fiserv $FI to roll out FIUSDFiservs new stablecoinacross Mastercards global network. 👇🏻 The majority of stablecoin transactions will use $V Visa and $MA Mastercard networks. Quote me. Non-issue. The majority of stablecoin transactions will use $V Visa and $MA Mastercard networks. Quote me. Non-issue"
X Link 2025-06-24T10:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheLongAJ Completely agree. Fortunate I was able to open a position during the tariff drops"
X Link 2025-06-30T18:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Wegovy wasnt included in the full year FY25 guidance. HIMS has also clearly communicated expectations for QoQ decline in revenue due to commercial GLP1 ending in April and associated subscriber churn. It shouldnt be a shocking quarter. But this stock reacts erratically despite any guidance so 🤷🏻♂"
X Link 2025-07-02T00:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$META seems to be hitting where it hurts. Head of Recruiting at OpenAI attempting to call out Zuck. OpenAI trying to stand on ethics is pretty comical as well. Its unethical (and reeks of desperation) to give people exploding offers that expire within hours and to ask them to sign before they even have a chance to tell their current manager. Meta you know better than this. Put people first. Its unethical (and reeks of desperation) to give people exploding offers that expire within hours and to ask them to sign before they even have a chance to tell their current manager. Meta you know better"
X Link 2025-07-04T17:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Rapidly accelerating growth strong fundamentals and a stable valuation. $HIMS is setup for success. The next [--] QTRs will be important for $HIMS in pushing past the GLP1 and Novo overhang. If $HIMS continues to execute we are going to see significant price appreciation. @WealthyReadings https://t.co/h8soHyMUlC @WealthyReadings https://t.co/h8soHyMUlC"
X Link 2025-07-05T15:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I agree. There is nothing inherently illegal at all but $HOOD is pushing the innovation envelope. Which is a good thing but its also new. This will undoubtedly bring up review and regulations but that isnt inherently bad or not normal. Some of it also may be simply language - referencing stock and shares implies ownership. I also think $hood for their first one free - companies are going to take tokens into account (positively or negatively) when considering giving $hood equity"
X Link 2025-07-08T12:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@riyadosofian A few weeks ago Novo issued statements that it was intentional. Weird"
X Link 2025-07-10T01:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Lots of tweets around $NOVO fumble regarding Canadian patent. This was headlines a few weeks ago but attention is new due to $HIMS move into Canada. $NOVO claims it was an intentional decision and not a misstep. Bizarre that they filed a CSP for patent extension simultaneously though. Weird move. $HIMS continuing to execute"
X Link 2025-07-10T01:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"With a possible $ZETA inclusion Imagine the possibilities. /s I agree $HIMS and @Whoop With a possible $OSCR inclusion Could be a game changer I agree $HIMS and @Whoop With a possible $OSCR inclusion Could be a game changer"
X Link 2025-07-13T14:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HIMS - coming soon. https://www.hims.com/comprehensive-lab-testing https://www.hims.com/comprehensive-lab-testing"
X Link 2025-07-13T22:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"This is sick. I fully switched to chrome and swapped to the Google app on my iphone. Did you AI mode and web assistant built in are perfect execution. Love to see the dip and rebound to new heights. $GOOG $GOOG Chrome market share increased in June to an all time high. https://t.co/OJhaBuc4YL $GOOG Chrome market share increased in June to an all time high. https://t.co/OJhaBuc4YL"
X Link 2025-07-16T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Dear Jerome Powell Good job. I appreciate you. You successfully soft-landed the shit out of that. Sincerely Manu"
X Link 2025-07-16T20:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Even if they are flat next year - which I doubt - 9.16% CAGR for [--] years or 12% for [--] years gets revenue to the same spot as 7.2% over [--] years. A flat next year isnt anything major. And they didnt say it would be flat they said they expected growth but were being cautious due to uncertainty"
X Link 2025-07-17T01:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Not many companies look this nice. $HIMS"
X Link 2025-07-17T13:57Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"BoA used a collection of graphs in their $HIMS report yesterday. At first glance some of them can seem scary but its important to take the analysts incentive into account. data can tell any story you want it to depending on how its presented. Two examples These graphs are misleading at first look and appear overtly negative. But. Sequential Growth in quarterly app downloads. really So if last quarter has [---] million and this quarter had [--] million it is reflected as -50%. but its actually still a 50% growth. And app downloads arent consumable its not a product you download more than once"
X Link 2025-07-19T14:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@_Sgr_A_Star Agreed. HIMS has been very straightforward on expectations during calls but Im sure these same analysts will be highlighting the above come earnings"
X Link 2025-07-20T03:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Yes - HIMS had been very clear they expect this quarter to be the first QoQ decline primarily due to the end of commercialized GLP-1 and a large portion of the associated consumers leaving the platform and/or not joining the platform. Should be a one time re-adjustment from the temporary commercial GLP1 dynamic ending"
X Link 2025-07-20T03:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@JReinhold16419 Show me the incentives and Ill show you the outcome"
X Link 2025-07-20T03:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@mikumyhoney Exactly weird data point to present. But whatever can be used to make a case I guess their options are limited with HIMS"
X Link 2025-07-20T03:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"My mean reversion index trade of buy the tariff dip did so much better bro. For those that watch the @theallinpod you may remember that my most obvious trade idea heading into Jan was long the S&P Index and short the Mag7. Aka the Mean Reversion Index Trade Turned out to be free money. Very rare that the market gives you these kinds of fat pitches. https://t.co/06SheKJGLk For those that watch the @theallinpod you may remember that my most obvious trade idea heading into Jan was long the S&P Index and short the Mag7. Aka the Mean Reversion Index Trade Turned out to be free money. Very rare"
X Link 2025-07-21T22:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Accounts payable and other liabilities These are basically general expenses which havent been settled yet such as taxes owed payments owed to employees legal bills etc. This is usually paid at varying timescales and taken after gross profit as part of general expenses Benefits payable This relates to money Oscar owes to care providers for their customers This is paid on a rolling basis usually within 30-90 days This is factored into revenue costs and is not generally drawn from their cash pile This is 100% false this is not how accounting works. This is drawn from their cash pile. Whether it"
X Link 2025-07-22T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Curious why FCF isnt the right metric for $OSCR and insurance companies in general Take [--] mins and read below 👇🏻 $OSCR $PGR Let me know if you find this helpful and are interested in a deeper dive on the topic. @weary_centurion Just to add as I noticed some FCF confusion on prior threads. The above explains some of the reasoning but here is an attempt at a super simplified version: By definition - free cash is the cash leftover after obligations for the company to invest in growth or disburse to @weary_centurion Just to add as I noticed some FCF confusion on prior threads. The above"
X Link 2025-07-23T10:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Technically their surplus "assets" are approx 1.5b but with an insurance company like $OSCR there are not really much assets besides cash and their cash float that is invested. So yes - that is correct. But also keep in mind next year's benefit payments are based on assumptions so even with cash in hand they need to account for the risk of higher than expected benefit payments or lower than expected premiums received. So some percentage of cash will always not technically be fully theirs. (if that makes sense). As long as growth continues and they use appropriate assumptions and medical costs"
X Link 2025-07-23T20:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GOOG: Search queries continue to grow YoY & double digit ad revenue growth. 💥 Did someone say something about disruption"
X Link 2025-07-23T20:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@weary_centurion Good stuff. Enjoyed our convo about $OSCR and the balance sheet in particular. Happy you found it helpful"
X Link 2025-07-26T19:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheTechInvest Unfortunately youre leaving out the other half of the accounting equation. Viewing cash as a standalone in valuing insurance companies is not appropriate. This post is misleading"
X Link 2025-07-26T20:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GOOG Amazon $AMZN removed all Google $GOOGL Shopping ads globally for [--] hours Between July [--] and [--] [----] Amazon suddenly pulled all its Google Shopping ads in major markets. Amazon's ad presence dropped: [--]. from 60% to 0% in the U.S. [--]. 55% to 0% in the U.K. and [--]. 38% to 0% https://t.co/nnZgKN6Sou Amazon $AMZN removed all Google $GOOGL Shopping ads globally for [--] hours Between July [--] and [--] [----] Amazon suddenly pulled all its Google Shopping ads in major markets. Amazon's ad presence dropped: [--]. from 60% to 0% in the U.S. [--]. 55% to 0% in the U.K. and [--]. 38% to 0% https://t.co/nnZgKN6Sou"
X Link 2025-07-27T17:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"👇🏻 this is spot on. I remember $META faced an existential threat from TikTok and then they pivoted and delivered reels. ChatGPT was first to the market but $GOOG is firing on all cylinders with its rollout. once Reels got going the incremental user and engagement growth on TikTok was an uphill battle for them. Thats what Google needs to do well: make the next [---] million DAU a very hard fought battle between Google and ChatGPT. https://t.co/DRoTbrxdCJ once Reels got going the incremental user and engagement growth on TikTok was an uphill battle for them. Thats what Google needs to do well:"
X Link 2025-07-28T15:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PronkDaniel Sounds like $AMZN is sticking to its day one plan"
X Link 2025-08-01T10:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$ASML looking too good not to act. How are we at these valuations despite all this AI capex guidance"
X Link 2025-08-01T15:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@MMoney642 Trimming is never necessarily a mistake but trimming hims here is not for me"
X Link 2025-08-05T14:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Reuters confirms $HIMS not defendant in $NOVO lawsuits. https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/novo-nordisk-expands-lawsuits-against-weight-loss-drug-compounders-2025-08-05/ https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/novo-nordisk-expands-lawsuits-against-weight-loss-drug-compounders-2025-08-05/"
X Link 2025-08-05T21:17Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"CEOs should strive to be like @dkhos on the $Uber earnings calls. Straight to the point. No fluff words. No non-answer answers simply I dont want to comment on that. I dont feel like Im being sold something when @dkhos speaks and as an investor I appreciate that"
X Link 2025-08-06T17:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"And now a message from Big Pharma: Never doubt the integrity of big pharma We have your best interests at heart. This message has been made possible by the industry that invented and promoted OxyContin - a non-addictive miracle drug to cure the pain epidemic $hims $nvo $lly But I thought $NVO and big pharma said $HIMS and compounders were the ones influencing prescribers But I thought $NVO and big pharma said $HIMS and compounders were the ones influencing prescribers"
X Link 2025-08-12T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"If chrome gets spun out it is mind blowing. Our economy is built on innovation. Build the best product and we will make you sell it sounds like the antithesis of supporting innovation and American tech to me. $GOOG $GOOGL"
X Link 2025-08-15T18:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I still stand by this valuation and am more confident than when I originally published. I believe a pretty conservative intrinsic value for $HIMS is in the range of $68 - $85. https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/hims-growing-into-its-valuation-and https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/hims-growing-into-its-valuation-and"
X Link 2025-08-24T15:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"For sure - I think we are in a bridge period that will result in suppressed pricing and increased volatility until we have the launch of new verticals and/or continued execution in earnings that meet or beat estimates. If $HIMS can meet or surpass Q1 earnings itll be a huge confidence boost in the growth and execution capability of the company for the general market"
X Link 2025-08-24T21:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Still stands. If you were paying attention this past quarter should not have been a surprise. $HIMS has been executing according to plan and have effectively communicated that plan all along"
X Link 2025-08-24T21:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Stressing about the depreciation impact of all the capex spend over the next few years [--] words: Permanent 100% bonus depreciation. Youll be hearing references in earnings calls later this year. $goog $meta $amzn"
X Link 2025-08-25T23:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"While I would love to and hope to see $HIMS accelerate past Q125 (peak commercial GLP-1) what is most important is continued growth and the continued launch of new independent diversified verticals and thats happening. Bears celebrated the first QoQ decline in Q225 but its important to keep perspective as an investor. $HIMS launched commercial GLPs in Q224 and ended it in Q225 and Q225 included a concerted effort to maximize growth before the required end of the product resulting in record revenues. Zoom out and see $HIMS revenue growth trend excluding commercial GLP quarters and you will"
X Link 2025-09-28T20:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Boston ended just south of that neck. The town of Roxbury and all south of that was a separate and distinct town. Boston was only [---] acres big. What you are describing as the land area of Boston did not exist as Boston in these referenced maps. The peninsula labeled downtown was the only actual part of Boston at the starting point of this map"
X Link 2025-09-28T21:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$UBER $UBER MIZUHO We initiate coverage on Uber shares with an Outperform rating and $130 target price with a compelling bull/bear skew of $175/$75 or +78%/-23%. We introduce estimates largely in-line with consensus but we view the stock as a multi-year compounder forecasting a $UBER MIZUHO We initiate coverage on Uber shares with an Outperform rating and $130 target price with a compelling bull/bear skew of $175/$75 or +78%/-23%. We introduce estimates largely in-line with consensus but we view the stock as a multi-year compounder forecasting a"
X Link 2025-09-30T13:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheLongAJ Good stuff"
X Link 2025-09-30T22:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Re-read it. 👇🏻 $GOOG $AMZN $META"
X Link 2025-09-30T22:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Meta and Google will benefit from advertising engagement and efficiency with their spend one way or another. Will it get the roic that is expected Maybe not. But will they grow into the benefits Yes. There are some things only big companies can do some get scared. Zuck isnt one of those. If super intelligence and glasses will either pay off for META or it wont and it will be another metaverse and meta will move on with better algorithms better ads better engagement and better efficieny than before. Bezos: as a company grows everything needs to scale including the size of your failed"
X Link 2025-10-01T02:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"https://investors.fico.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fico-launches-cost-cutting-direct-license-program-mortgage/ https://investors.fico.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fico-launches-cost-cutting-direct-license-program-mortgage/"
X Link 2025-10-02T09:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The FICO direct license program empowers tri-merge resellers to optimize credit costs for both lenders and borrowers. By streamlining distribution the direct license program enhances cost transparency and reduces the price of FICO Scores to the mortgage industry. $FICO"
X Link 2025-10-02T09:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Today marks a turning point in how credit scores are delivered and priced across the mortgage industry said Will Lansing Chief Executive Officer of FICO. Direct licensing of the FICO Score brings transparency competition and cost-efficiency to the mortgage lending process. This change eliminates unnecessary mark-ups on the FICO Score and puts pricing model choice in the hands of those who use FICO Scores to drive mortgage decisions. $FICO"
X Link 2025-10-02T09:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Mayhem4Markets OpenAI trying to boil the ocean. Figuratively and factually"
X Link 2025-10-04T22:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NighthawkTradez Costco hotdogs are part of the $HIMS bull case"
X Link 2025-10-05T16:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Because its a chart meant to trigger emotions. Majority are bonds held to maturity but due to interest rate increases their face value is depressed. Only matters if they sell them which they arent. Holding to maturity impacts the bank zero. And the unrealized loss will decrease as interest rates come down. OPs post is a noise headline post with zero context"
X Link 2025-10-05T20:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Remember context always matters. The majority of these holdings are bonds held to maturity but due to interest rate increases their face value is depressed. This only matters if the banks sell them which they arent. Holding to maturity has zero negative impact on the bank. And the unrealized loss will decrease as interest rates come down. This breaking news has been known and digested since [----] and is simply noise to trigger emotional responses. BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Banks U.S. Banks are now sitting on $395 Billion in unrealized losses as of Q2 [----] 👀 https://t.co/hYpDcgf72t BREAKING 🚨: U.S."
X Link 2025-10-05T20:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"OpenAI is placing bets with poker chips it doesnt have. Hundreds of billions of commitments are on the table but OpenAI is currently burning billions. OpenAI is either THE bubble itself or is going to benefit big from a future that is yet to exist. Id rather own diversified business models that are benefiting from AI today and will thrive with or without the commoditization of AI chatbots. $GOOG $GOOGL $META $AMZN"
X Link 2025-10-06T15:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$GOOG is THE AI play. Holy shit.Google just built an AI that learns from its own mistakes in real time. New paper dropped on ReasoningBank. The idea is pretty simple but nobody's done it this way before. Instead of just saving chat history or raw logs it pulls out the actual reasoning patterns https://t.co/UvfUEtAgIk Holy shit.Google just built an AI that learns from its own mistakes in real time. New paper dropped on ReasoningBank. The idea is pretty simple but nobody's done it this way before. Instead of just saving chat history or raw logs it pulls out the actual reasoning patterns"
X Link 2025-10-12T04:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CCM_Brett This made me genuinely chuckle. Love @chitchatstocks"
X Link 2025-10-14T22:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Add in Powells talk of looser policy with additional rates cuts and phasing out of QT and we have potential for significantly more fuel in this run"
X Link 2025-10-15T00:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Make sure you enjoy the ride. $HIMS"
X Link 2025-10-16T02:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@QualityInvest5 @StockMarketNerd Its related to June [----] Tender Offer. $857m of stock based comp is passed through the income statement as a result. Screenshot shows year end but it occurred in June [----] so is reflected in that quarter. The jump from prior quarter pretty much matches exact with the SBC"
X Link 2025-07-02T00:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"No analyst coverage and no hype. Just a quality company following its fundamentals and growing back into its valuation. $IESC - IES Holdings Quietly up 53% since opening my position in February. Opened at $230 and added all the way down to $162"
X Link 2025-07-03T18:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$STNE looking very interesting BofA Securities analyst Mario Pierry raised the price target on $STNE to $25.00 (from $15.00) while maintaining a Buy rating. The analyst comments "Our new PO of $25 reflects i) US$23/share for the core business based on a target P/E multiple of 11x (unchanged) our [--] EPS https://t.co/usb1aiH5bB BofA Securities analyst Mario Pierry raised the price target on $STNE to $25.00 (from $15.00) while maintaining a Buy rating. The analyst comments "Our new PO of $25 reflects i) US$23/share for the core business based on a target P/E multiple of 11x (unchanged) our 26"
X Link 2025-09-10T00:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$FICO taking steps to cut out the middlemen credit bureaus. Premarket moves: $FICO +5.71% $EFX -10.95% $TRU -918% New pricing option: direct from $FICO score for $4.95 (50% drop) with a $33 funded loan fee for successful loan closing"
X Link 2025-10-02T09:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$FICO Barclays raises PT to $2400 Barclays analysts called the move a clear positive for Fair Isaac as it effectively doubles mortgage-related revenue per score from about $4.95 to $10 while reducing the role of credit bureaus. They raised the earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 2025% across all out-years and lifted its price target on FICO to $2400 from $2000"
X Link 2025-10-02T09:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"OpenAI having outsized influence with all these commitments Important to know what you own and why. Quality companies integrating AI into existing profitable (or at minimum revenue generating) lines of business and the picks and shovels. $GOOGL $IESC $AMZN $ASML 3/4 ChatGPT was released on November [--] [----]. Since this date these [--] stocks have accounted for 70% of the increase in the S&P 500's value (blue). The other 30% came from the remaining [---] stocks (orange) https://t.co/2vhtNUVkdh 3/4 ChatGPT was released on November [--] [----]. Since this date these [--] stocks have accounted for 70% of"
X Link 2025-10-06T18:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"If you want to play in AI today you either need to have a great application a great model a great chip or a great cloud. Google is trying to have all four of those. There is no other company that has I think more than one. $GOOG $GOOGL Live https://t.co/EZu4yRjmEK Live https://t.co/EZu4yRjmEK"
X Link 2025-10-08T13:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Never heard of Whop until recent $SEZL press release. $SEZL continues to expand its partnerships and position itself for growth happy to see it. S&P [---] $SPY is trading near all-time highs. Gold futures tapped $4000. Bitcoin is back at record levels. The markets on fire and interest in learning about stocks on Whop is right there with it. Sales jumped 54% just today. https://t.co/v4pDI5MITE S&P [---] $SPY is trading near all-time highs. Gold futures tapped $4000. Bitcoin is back at record levels. The markets on fire and interest in learning about stocks on Whop is right there with it. Sales"
X Link 2025-10-08T14:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TSOH_Investing When you say initiation do you mean research or your buying"
X Link 2025-10-12T18:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$CROX $CROX: The Ugly Shoes That Could Make You Beautiful Returns Mr. Market has on sale a pretty good business one that generated over $1 Billion in operating income over the past [--] months. For roughly: $4.5 Billion market cap 7x earnings with 30% ROIC 20% free cash flow $CROX: The Ugly Shoes That Could Make You Beautiful Returns Mr. Market has on sale a pretty good business one that generated over $1 Billion in operating income over the past [--] months. For roughly: $4.5 Billion market cap 7x earnings with 30% ROIC 20% free cash flow"
X Link 2025-10-12T18:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"The credit industry is changing. $SEZL BNPL payment volumes in the US is expected to cross 100B USD ion [----] and grow 24% CAGR over the next [--] years and will reach 1T in [----] compared to 2.2T in revolving credit card or 45%. Full analysis is coming tomorrow https://t.co/aLhT9oYxiK BNPL payment volumes in the US is expected to cross 100B USD ion [----] and grow 24% CAGR over the next [--] years and will reach 1T in [----] compared to 2.2T in revolving credit card or 45%. Full analysis is coming tomorrow https://t.co/aLhT9oYxiK"
X Link 2025-10-14T03:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Well also get first taste of true capex spend and short-term ROIC. People are going to be hearing about 100% accelerated depreciation as well. Thats a huge benefit to capex spenders and I dont think average retail is aware of it"
X Link 2025-10-15T00:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"On the other hand companies doing this backlog reporting on circular financing may eventually be taken to town. Theres only so much OpenAI can promise. Stalwarts like $GOOG $AMZN $MSFT & $META arent playing that game though. (Zuck might go overboard but I dont see that risk exposure for $GOOG $MSFT $AMZN) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1978254263961747686 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1978254263961747686"
X Link 2025-10-15T00:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"New Research Journal post on Substack. Paywalled but free trial access available to check it out. Get a more frequent view into what Im looking at when Im researching a company and investment insights. $STNE https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/research-journal-stone-cor=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/research-journal-stone-cor=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios"
X Link 2025-10-15T00:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"New Research Journal post on Substack. Paywalled but free trial access available to check it out. Get a more frequent view into what Im looking at when Im researching a company and my investment insights. $STNE https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/research-journal-stone-cor=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/research-journal-stone-cor=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios"
X Link 2025-10-15T00:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@contrarcap @NighthawkTradez @DataDInvesting Its a rule 105b-1 sale. Look it up. He is entitled to enjoy his money and it is all a pre-planned non-adjustable trade schedule. He didnt wake up and book a trade"
X Link 2025-10-16T23:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@investwithsheng @TrendSpider This is a hilarious reply"
X Link 2025-10-19T01:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@tickerplus Feb-April was prime time commercial GLP1 push. Obviously it is expected to be extremely spiked"
X Link 2025-10-20T20:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"What even is this data Ill stick to SEC Filings and data thats not intentionally cherry picked to start at the highest point of commercial GLP1 advertising before the shortage ending in April. More noise. $HIMS $HIMS Hims is a business on the decline as much as the bulls don't want to hear it. https://t.co/KJYPHD95OE $HIMS Hims is a business on the decline as much as the bulls don't want to hear it. https://t.co/KJYPHD95OE"
X Link 2025-10-20T23:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$META deal with Blue Owl to build out the Hyperion Data Center is basically like giving someone a down payment to buy a house that you want and have them take out the mortgage in their name to protect your credit score but you move in and pay their mortgage payments and promise to pay back the outstanding value of the house if you decide to leave and they sell it for less than the mortgage loan is worth. While also providing the ability to take on more debt if need because your credit rating is preserved and the debt technically isnt in your name"
X Link 2025-10-23T21:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$META has made a deal with Blue Owl to fund the Hyperion data center. Meta is paying for 20% and the remainder is debt issued via a special purpose vehicle managed by blue owl. So $META doesnt have the debt on its books. Creative angle. Meta is developer operator tenant but Blue Owl SPV is the owner. So META has already signed a long term with renewals for up to [--] years (Debt maturity). The lease payments are what is funding the interest payments for the debt. There is also a backstop that if META exits or breaks lease and the property sells below a specified residual value within [--] years"
X Link 2025-10-23T21:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I remain extremely bullish on $META it remains my top position. but I will be cautious of any additional off the book deals. One creative play is OK but things can spiral fast. These companies were funding capex with cash flows and now its turning. Oracle OpenAI circular deals and off-balance sheet SPVs. Time will tell"
X Link 2025-10-23T21:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@fiscal_ai $IESC"
X Link 2025-10-26T22:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$META is showing pre-effects of the big beautiful bill 100% depreciation on capex. EPS miss is ONE TIME non-cash adjustment. GAAP shows 84% drop in EPS but its one time accounting charge due to being below the minimum corp tax rate due to BBB 100% depreciation allowance. META has deferred tax assets IOUs. Big Beautiful Bill allows for 100% depreciation on capex which is going to result in major tax reductions. This drops them below the minimum corporate tax rate. Because of this their expected payments have to reach the minimum corporate tax rates. This FORCES a "valuation allowance" they"
X Link 2025-10-29T20:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Cash flow from Operations 29.9m vs 24.7m YoY. Deferred income taxes added back as non-cash charge off"
X Link 2025-10-29T20:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$META essentially saw they will not be able to use their future tax benefits or IOUs from the government and had to write them off. While this is technically missed savings the effects of 100% depreciation in the Big Beut Bill far outweighs the write-off"
X Link 2025-10-29T20:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes its ok. Its also a bit of accounting weirdness. They are writing down future tax benefits they would have experienced under the old tax code. So its not like they actually are writing down something the bought that is worth less than their paid they are removing future tax savings but those savings are listed in the balance sheet as a deferred asset so they need to write it off via a charge to the income statement. Great quarter overall. Very happy. Executed on all metrics"
X Link 2025-10-30T00:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"On $META: Here's my take after the call. $META is down following their earnings release. Some of it is a reaction to the headline EPS number some of it is definitely the capex spend. I do think some of the drag is also the opening statement. Zuck went right into super intelligence and didnt discuss the current core products or company. It had Metaverse vibes. And then he was asked pointed questions about capex expected margins expected products from AI etc. and he answered them vaguely which he noted was due to competition he didnt want to share. But the reality is - $META has not disclosed"
X Link 2025-10-30T13:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Writing off Deferred Tax Assets because of the OBBB Tax Changes is a positive not a negative. The net cash savings gain on the Capex/R&D depreciation changes FAR exceeds the future value of currently held DTAs. $META $AMZN $GOOG $GOOGL"
X Link 2025-10-30T13:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$META just announced a $25b bond raise to support cash cushion for increased capex spend. This is also adding to the drawdown. 5-40 year timeline horizons on the bonds but great interest only 1% above treasury equivalents. They did similar in [----] buildout cycle start. Likely why they structured blue owl deal the way they did to preserve credit rating in support of this issuance. Zuck is positioning for the play. I obviously dont love debt but its only the second time theyve done a recent major offering the other being [----] with start of capex buildout. They have been primarily cash fueled"
X Link 2025-10-30T14:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$GOOG smart investments pay off. $GOOG invested capital increased from $83 Billion in 3Q19 to $303 Billion in 3Q25 Lets be honest: wouldnt we be smugly confident that its ROIC of 29% in 3Q19 would almost certainly go down It went up by [---] bps read my $GOOGL 3Q'25 coverage: https://t.co/rZGHKrN8BS https://t.co/nsaY07syuy $GOOG invested capital increased from $83 Billion in 3Q19 to $303 Billion in 3Q25 Lets be honest: wouldnt we be smugly confident that its ROIC of 29% in 3Q19 would almost certainly go down It went up by [---] bps read my $GOOGL 3Q'25 coverage: https://t.co/rZGHKrN8BS"
X Link 2025-11-01T18:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@kakashiii111 Hence why they are positioning themselves with the Blue Owl Deal and the debt offering. So that cash fusion flexibility remains"
X Link 2025-11-01T19:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Regarding $ADBE It looks really attractive here. Its on top of my watchlist has been for a while. One immediate thing to keep in mind is that many of the Forward multiple posted on ADBE reflect TTM GAAP EPS vs forward analyst estimates but those are using Adjusted EPS. ADBE currently around [----] PE with a reported [--] Fwd PE but if set as constant for GAAP its more like a [----] FWD PE which is still good. Id jump at around $300 or [--] PE but still see great value here. Its just a matter of prioritizing cash flow and opportunity for me. Regarding threats: I utilize canva for work and personal"
X Link 2025-11-02T14:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"25 years ago Larry Paige said Artificial Intelligence would be the ultimate version of Google the ultimate search engine that would understand everything on the web. It would understand exactly what you wanted and it would give you the right thing. $GOOG $GOOGL If the road to AGI continues to be exceptionally capital intensive nobody is better positioned than Alphabet @borrowed_ideas https://t.co/A5KJa00O1F If the road to AGI continues to be exceptionally capital intensive nobody is better positioned than Alphabet @borrowed_ideas https://t.co/A5KJa00O1F"
X Link 2025-11-02T20:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"YouTube premium (ad-free) delivers higher gross profit than ad-supported use the opposite of $NFLX. The more $GOOG continues to bundle AI offerings into its premium packages the better and the stickier their ecosystem becomes. $GOOG $GOOGL @QualityInvest5 Both YouTube ads and subscription saw strong growth this quarter. And so looking at YouTube Music and Premium users are on average delivering more value to creators to music media partners and YouTube itself than even ad-supported users do. So in other words on average a @QualityInvest5 Both YouTube ads and subscription saw strong growth"
X Link 2025-11-02T21:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Ready for $HIMS to miss AGAIN For me as an investor - last quarter wasnt a miss they guided 530-550 and came in at [---]. It is a bizarre system that has developed that we hold companies to analyst consensus rather than their own guidance. Analyst consensus last quarter was [---] so they set the bar higher than the company and therefore it was a miss What I care most about on a quarter to quarter basis is landing within company guidance range and updates regarding future/long term guide. Looking forward to tomorrows call. Its interesting to see the conversation around $HIMS transition from a 2030"
X Link 2025-11-02T23:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Stock_Inf0 More META dip and in particular looking forward to STNE and SEZL earnings. Got earnings for the last of my portfolio this week: HIMS STNE FICO SEZL"
X Link 2025-11-03T00:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@EventuallyWLTHY 🙋🏻♂ 12$ original. have averaged up to 30ish as conviction has grown with execution"
X Link 2025-11-03T00:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@qualtrim Remove high priced commercial GLP1 quarters and still looks pretty good to me"
X Link 2025-11-03T14:51Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Stock_Inf0 Completely agree. Have a sizable $crox position and looking to increase it as cash flow allows. Happy to at these levels"
X Link 2025-11-03T15:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Opportunity cost on the AI Capex spending revolution is sucking returns out of other areas in the market. Over the long term though fundamental execution and growth is always rewarded. $PGR Progressive $PGR with stronger postive EPS revisions (since 1/1/24) than any other U.S. large cap stock. and yet https://t.co/l8OqEWbAlu Progressive $PGR with stronger postive EPS revisions (since 1/1/24) than any other U.S. large cap stock. and yet https://t.co/l8OqEWbAlu"
X Link 2025-11-03T17:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HIMS Im a major executing accelerated revenue past peak commercial GLP1 sales. $599m revenue vs Q1 peak of $586m. Subscribers up 21%. MARPU re-acceleration up 8% despite end of commercial GLP1. Great quarter"
X Link 2025-11-03T21:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Kross_Roads @jseninvest Yeah but its the toughest YoY comps as well with GLP1 commercial revenue being PYQ3 Q4 and CYQ1. They re-accelerated past peak GLP1 commercial revenue. Thats huge execution and re-accelerated MARPU to near high commercial GLP1 levels"
X Link 2025-11-03T22:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"We are also comping to YoY commercial GLP1 quarters when we experienced the high growth spikes. Investors were spoiled during those numbers. Ill gladly take 49% revenue growth and a re-acceleration to revenue greater than peak commercial GLP1 heights in Q1. Overall a solid execution during a transitional year"
X Link 2025-11-03T23:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Couldnt agree more. I was in HIMS well before GLP1 it was never part of my thesis. However I was just as excited as anyone for the shortage and ability to generate growth introduce new subscribers and generate excess cash. But it was ALWAYS temporary. Add in the benefit of opening up the door for personalized GLP1 and all-in-all it was a major success and seized opportunity. Unfortunately the flip side of that has been the creation of unrealistic expectations comps and a post-commercial GLP1 hangover on sentiment. Since the shortage ended I felt it would take 3-4 consistent quarters of"
X Link 2025-11-04T00:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"👀 Niccols shaking things up. $sbux Starbucks said it would sell control of its operations in China to Boyu Capital in a deal that values the business at $4 billion one of the largest divestments of a China unit by a global consumer company in recent years. More here: https://t.co/VZcfNKJ6My Starbucks said it would sell control of its operations in China to Boyu Capital in a deal that values the business at $4 billion one of the largest divestments of a China unit by a global consumer company in recent years. More here: https://t.co/VZcfNKJ6My"
X Link 2025-11-04T05:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Good thread on $UBER and they reported today. Continuing to accelerate KPIs across the board. Trips 3.5b +22% MAPCs 189m +17% EBITDA 2.26b +33% Revenue 13.4b +20% Operating income 1.06b +69% EBITDA continues to scale faster than revenue. Of note regarding the big EPS beat: There is a big tax benefit of 4.9b in tax asset release that spiked net income. Last year it was 1.7b - without it net income wouldve been 1.7b this Q. If we adjust both CY and PY net income went from .9b to 1.7b. Thats a big driver of EPS beat. But its a real asset its not just an accounting gimmick. Utilizing a tax asset"
X Link 2025-11-04T14:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$DUOL valuation is just coming back to earth. DUOL has good numbers that look interesting but its like [---] PE. its guiding growth at 37%. thats still very expensive. A switch to slightly less risk on and it takes massive growth to support massive multiples. In addition - disruption isnt out of the question. Google Labs currently has a variety of educational apps to learn on specifically regarding languages. And $GOOG translate just launched a practice feature that includes streaks and gamification. People have been learning languages for all of time DUOL has been a fun new avenue to casually"
X Link 2025-11-05T23:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Look at these $GOOG Gemini projections from new Citi AI industry adoption report. Gemini: [----] AI Rev: $298m 2025E AI Rev: $8705m 2030E AI rev: $341609m 🤯 [--] year CAGR: 108% [----] Mkt Share: 4% 2025E Mkt Share: 20% 2030E Mkt Share: 35% On last weeks call Sundar noted: Adoption is rapidly accelerating. In Q3 revenue from products built on our generative AI models grew more than 200% year-over-year. $GOOG $GOOGL 251103_Updating AI Industry Model on Accelerating Adoption - CITI (1) Citi raised its estimates for AI service revenues for [--------]. (2) *AI service revenues are projected to grow from"
X Link 2025-11-06T02:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I am becoming ever more confident OpenAI IS their own AI bubble. Sam Altman opened the door and invited the hyper scalers to the poker game but hasnt realized that OpenAI is the fish at the table. Oh gawd. https://t.co/cYUoJvGNzD Oh gawd. https://t.co/cYUoJvGNzD"
X Link 2025-11-06T03:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$META has a net debt to EBITDA ratio of .15 if you include their recent debt issuance. Its a net debt to EBITDA ratio of .42 if you include this off balance debt. People are spoiled by the bulletproof balance sheets of these companies. Comparing META to [----] Enron is wild. 🦔Meta is hiding $30 billion in AI infrastructure debt off its balance sheet using special purpose vehicles echoing the financial engineering that triggered Enron's collapse and the [----] mortgage crisis. Morgan Stanley estimates tech firms will need $800 billion from private https://t.co/9uMcW4zv36 🦔Meta is hiding $30"
X Link 2025-11-07T02:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JerBearRN @wearehims @wearehers Im pretty sure the majority of Medicaid does not cover GLP1 for weight loss. Unless I am mistaken"
X Link 2025-11-07T02:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Knowing that just about none of my holdings have mega commitments from OpenAI helps me sleep well at night. Exception being $AMZN w a $38b multi-yr AWS commitment. However AWS has an annual run rate of $108b and continues to emphasize they are supply constrained. 😴 $META $AMZN $GOOG $OAI https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1986806975573717431 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1986806975573717431"
X Link 2025-11-07T14:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@sama Trust me bro @sama @OpenAI $oai"
X Link 2025-11-08T01:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@BoringBiz_ Lol $META net debt to EBITDA ratio is .42 including off balance sheet debt. This is a hilarious take. https://x.com/manuinvests/status/1986615853786243100s=46 $META has a net debt to EBITDA ratio of .15 if you include their recent debt issuance. Its a net debt to EBITDA ratio of .42 if you include this off balance debt. People are spoiled by the bulletproof balance sheets of these companies. Comparing META to [----] Enron is wild. https://x.com/manuinvests/status/1986615853786243100s=46 $META has a net debt to EBITDA ratio of .15 if you include their recent debt issuance. Its a net"
X Link 2025-11-08T01:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I remember when $GOOG OpenAI didnt so much pass the baton more like Google took it back. Glad to have been a buyer throughout all of the negative sentiment"
X Link 2025-11-08T16:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Regarding $META $600b commitment: This isnt an additional $600b of capex spend. It is hyperbolic and includes all costs and expenses. Thats why it includes investment in infrastructure and jobs in the statement. CFO released a clarification after his White House meeting when he initially said it that essentially stated we consider this to include all US opex spending and the periphery jobs it also creates. So if we assume that - it includes trailing 9mo YTD spending of 82b on RD SGA COGS etc. (round down freely to take some out) FY24 total was 95b and META is on pace to exceed that. Guidance"
X Link 2025-11-08T18:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$CROX continues to prioritize returning shareholder value through buybacks purchasing more then 4% of shares outstanding in Q3. Over the past TTM $CROX has purchased approx. 10% of shares outstanding. Very happy to see management continue and accelerate this strategy at these price levels. "At quarter-end $927 million of share repurchase authorization remained available for future repurchases. .and there may be tariff reprieve on the horizon. 4/ The market still remembers the early-2000s boom-and-bust story. But the company that once sold rubber clogs is now a global lifestyle brand. And"
X Link 2025-11-08T22:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$HIMS This should not be unexpected and isnt the doom and gloom its portrayed to be. It is important to note that this graph aligns perfectly with the launch and headlines of commercial glp1. They launched Q2 last year so was the driver of spike in web traffic starting in May [----] that ended 4.30.25. So all YoY metrics on this time scale need to be viewed from that perspective imo. Many of these declining chart posts are cherry picking dates intentionally most likely as well. All these metrics were reported declining last quarter and everyone was doom and gloom and $HIMS beat revenue. For"
X Link 2025-11-10T23:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@DataDInvesting GLP1 allows HSA so they have the functionality. Id assume yes"
X Link 2025-11-14T03:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Norbert Lou of Punch Card Management opened a concentrated position in $CROX during Q2 and increased the position by 19% this quarter. Love to see it. Not sure who Norbert Lou is Google him"
X Link 2025-11-15T01:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ Regarding $FIG decrease in Gross Profit Margins FIG has historically had a Gross Margins at or above 90% but the recent reporting shows some changes. Since [----] there has been a jump in the Cost of Revenues. At surface level it is difficult to see what's going on let's look"
X Link 2025-11-16T18:52Z [----] followers, 19.9K engagements
"2/ The large jumps in Cost of Revenue and therefore the decrease in gross margins is due to a Tender Offer in [----] and the IPO in [----]. Tender Offer: May [----] IPO: July 2025"
X Link 2025-11-16T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ Regarding the Tender offer: in simple terms in this case a tender offer is an invitation for outside investors to purchase shares held by employees and initial investors in the private company. Figma did it because of the failed Adobe acquisition. To provide liquidity compensation and encourage employee retention $FIG wanted employees to be able to cash in on some of their shares after the unexpected deal collapse"
X Link 2025-11-16T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/ The way it works is they allow outside investors to purchase shares from current employees and initial investors. Companies periodically fair value the value of their employee held shares. Since this Tender Offer was priced ABOVE that existing value - due to GAAP accounting FIG has to consider that change as compensation for the employees. Example: If the booked fair value of employee shares was $13.19 and the tender offer is transacted at $23.19 then there is a $10/per share additional compensation expense that needs to be accounted for in Cost of Revenue"
X Link 2025-11-16T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5/ This is then offset by an entry to the Stockholder equity as Paid In Capital aka increase in valuation of the equity and is added back into the Cash Flow statement because it is a non cash transaction only for accounting purposes due to GAAP rules about recording compensation"
X Link 2025-11-16T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6/ Here we can see on the $FIG S-1 that the Cost of Revenue jumped due to the Tender"
X Link 2025-11-16T18:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"9/ This is a breakdown of the Tender Offer impact on different line items in the financials. All of the below are adjustments to expenses based off the Tender but remember - these are one time and non cash and are offset by Paid in Capital into the Statement of stockholder equity/Balance sheet to account for increased equity valuation"
X Link 2025-11-16T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"10/ Now to 2025: A very similar event is triggered with an IPO as the IPO is priced above the Fair Value of insider shares held. This has a dual impact as many RSUs also get vested during an IPO and must be recognized as compensation immediately as they have been re-valued at a higher fair value by the IPO and the employees earned that re-valuation. Again - this is offset in Cash Flows and Stockholder Equity/Balance Sheet with Paid in capital. (its not actually paid in its an adjustment to net everything out/revalue it). The IPO was 33$ per share so its another 10$ per share jump if we assume"
X Link 2025-11-16T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"11/ IPO impact is visible in the Cost of Revenue and the offsetting Paid In Capital on the Statement Stockholder Equity which is rolled into the Balance Sheet"
X Link 2025-11-16T18:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"12/ In summary - $FIGS Gross Margin compression is temporary artificially depressed by [--] years of liquidity events and related SBC that needs to be recognized per GAAP accounting rules. They should return to norm next year all being equal. But their SBC will be more elevated in past due to new valuation. Also of note: $FIG Adjusted margins were reported at 86% last Q. This may remain temporarily below 90%s in short term as they are also experiencing inference compute cost from making the AI Figma Make available to all. Mgmt noted on their recent call that they currently are not enforcing"
X Link 2025-11-16T18:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@buccocapital @QualityInvest5 Main dip is not the cost but the IPO accounting impact. The Figma Make impact dropped it from like 90% to 86% but the drop to 69% is IPO SBC re-valuation related. https://x.com/ManuInvests/status/1990130773324681353s=20 1/ Regarding $FIG decrease in Gross Profit Margins FIG has historically had a Gross Margins at or above 90% but the recent reporting shows some changes. Since [----] there has been a jump in the Cost of Revenues. At surface level it is difficult to see what's going on let's look https://t.co/hNpt3atSr0"
X Link 2025-11-16T19:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JamesSchladt @buccocapital @QualityInvest5 MGMT did note they are not capping use of tokens in order to support adoption but eventually will and will charge for over usage which in theory will offset the inference compute cost but for the time being its a grow adoption at a loss strategy"
X Link 2025-11-17T02:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Crocs when Get with the times. Stock price problems solved. $crox $nvda $goog"
X Link 2025-11-20T12:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Regarding $NVDA inventories: The law of large numbers must also be taken into account here. A 158% increase in inventories vs a 68% increase in revenue are vastly different numbers proportionally due to the base. Inventories increased 4.82b QoQ and revenues increased 10.26b. Looking at strictly percentage graphs skews perception. And the ability to maintain acceleration in revenue at this scale is extremely difficult. $NVDA @TravisHoium I think people are nitpicking here. Nvidia inventories always increase July - Oct in preparation of holiday season. The middle of that chart is an outlier due"
X Link 2025-11-20T14:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"NVDA also has a gaming segment. But yes - the majority of inventory is undoubtedly work-in-progress unfinished DC compute products which are most certainly pre-booked and positioning for communicated demand increases. As I noted. The thing is though - the chart I was replying to was a inventory days chart not a total inventory amount. It doesnt measure what is being inventoried only its length of time - hence why seasonal buildups would be evident. It is even called out in the NVDA call. Even so I made a follow up post about comparing revenue growth and inventory growth that leaves me as"
X Link 2025-11-20T20:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Yeah - FTC evidence tells a different story for $META. The social media market may be consolidating a bit but META is the beneficiary. Also - data can be cherry picked. The reality of the originally posted graphs is a return to the norm of social media use after 2020-2022 spikes driven by the pandemic and the increased use of social media during that time which carried through via temporary habitual behaviors and a slow return to social norms. Also - the graphs depict approximately a total drop of [--] minutes or so in average time spent. In addition not shown in the graph is the North American"
X Link 2025-11-22T01:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Also - if you go to the source cited in those graphs GWIs report - the graph does not accurately reflect the reported data. See attached highlights from report showing Gen Z at [--] hours [--] minutes in [----]. Additional highlights added - Gen Z remains the highest engaged social media cohort ever. Even if trends were to suggest that usage drops at a certain maturity of age future generations are showing faster and earlier rapid use adoption than those that preceded them and I anticipate this will only continue"
X Link 2025-11-22T02:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I agree. Important note is also that removing the non-cash Hey Dude impairment (and recent tax benefit) brings $CROX adj TTM PE to the 6s and it has a fwd PE of around [--]. Looks good to me at these levels especially taking FCF generation and buyback yield and priority into account"
X Link 2025-11-22T21:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I am glad I was a buyer of $GOOG all the way down through the $150s and as low as $143 as I did with $META in [----] chasing as low as $123. I still hold those shares and more today. Know your thesis and follow your conviction"
X Link 2025-11-24T23:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Ill say it again No analyst coverage and no hype. Just a quality company following its fundamentals. a thing of beauty. No noise necessary. Up 123% on my position. $IESC No analyst coverage and no hype. Just a quality company following its fundamentals and growing back into its valuation. $IESC - IES Holdings Quietly up 53% since opening my position in February. Opened at $230 and added all the way down to $162. https://t.co/V4cd3lsWEZ No analyst coverage and no hype. Just a quality company following its fundamentals and growing back into its valuation. $IESC - IES Holdings Quietly up 53%"
X Link 2025-11-26T20:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I typically reserve 6-8% of my portfolio for 1-3% positions on what I view as asymmetric opportunities with significant upside potential. If the companies continue to execute and conviction builds I add to the position ignore cost basis anchoring. Example - $HIMS at $12 at its first profitable quarter. 2x on a 2% position is the equivalent of 20% in a 10% position. Ill take that on plays I feel are at an inflection point with significant upside return"
X Link 2025-11-26T20:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@LiebermanAustin Let winners win. 16% on a megacap quality compounder with tons of optionality Ill take it all day. $GOOG"
X Link 2025-11-26T20:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I spoke to soon. $IESC officially covered by [--] analyst as of October with a BUY rating. Following a record Q425 and FY25 we raise our IESC target price to $440 based on a 5-year DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model using a Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) approach and strengthened visibility into FY26 from a higher backlog base. At our target IESC would trade at approximately 16x EV/EBITDA NTM and 21x P/E NTM levels that assume continued strength in core segments and stable execution across the portfolio. A few more and maybe well start getting an earnings call. $IESC"
X Link 2025-11-27T19:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@mastersinvest @TheEconomist Social media broke sentiment surveys"
X Link 2025-11-28T03:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"1/ On $UBER: Addressing Insurance Reserves Recently Cedar Street Research released a bear case breakdown / short take on Ubers insurance reserves. The core argument is that Uber is essentially operating as a unregulated under-capitalized insurance company and that its Free Cash Flow is mirage propped up by insurance float and SBC. Yes there are some valid points in the take specifically regarding a lack of transparency however I feel they are missing the forest for the trees. Heads up this is a @BillAckman length thread. UBER INSURANCE RESERVES - LIKELY UNDERREPORTED $UBER insurance reserves"
X Link 2025-11-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"2/ Regarding Free Cash Flow: I agree. To get an accurate picture on Ubers Free Cash Flow or Owners Earnings we should remove the Stock Based Comp and Accrued Insurance Reserve add ins. SBC is an real dilutive expense and Accrued Insurance Reserves should be considered restricted cash for future payouts that is not available to shareholders. Adjusting for this brings Ubers true organic FCF from 8.6b to 4.13b. The thing is this isnt a mirage. I am well aware of the FCF multiple I am paying for Uber as are many of its well-known investors. The reality is that FCF is rapidly growing and the"
X Link 2025-11-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ Cedar Street's criticism leans on the James River situation in [----] and the follow up $1.1b adjustment in [----]. Ubers balance sheet has drastically improved since then. Even after accounting for the $1.1b adjustment did the company collapse as this case implies No Uber absorbed the cost reset their insurance reserves adjusted insurance accrual set asides and continued executing as a growing business. This case is making it seem like 50% of uber drivers are going to wake up one day and drive off a cliff with a car full of people. That simply is not reality. All insurance businesses have to"
X Link 2025-11-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/ The reserves did not magically get better once in Aleka. - Cedar Street Correct. There was no magic Uber admitted the reserves were under capitalized and adjusted the reserves with a $1.1b true up and generated $2.3b in real organic FCF anyways (SBC and Accrued Insurance removed) despite the correction. AND Uber is on pace to double that real FCF in under a year with the TTM FCF currently at $4.13b"
X Link 2025-11-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"5/ Uber has reached an inflection point and their organic Free Cash Flow growth (from operations ads and delivery etc) is accelerating faster than its accrued insurance liability. Ubers reserves are keeping pace with growth: Changes in Insurance accruals remains positive this means they are adding to reserves at a greater pace than payouts. The float is growing not shrinking. Note: Mgmt guided moderating insurance pressure reserve change remains positive but is stabilizing/contracting"
X Link 2025-11-28T21:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6/ In [----] Ubers insurance float was its life line for operating cash today it is a benefit that accounts for a shrinking 28% of operational cash flow. (SBC is left out of this chart to focus on the impact of accrued insurance). Note: 2025e Quarterly 625m estimated accrued insurance change as it is stabilizing"
X Link 2025-11-28T21:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"7/ Uber is continuing to set aside reserves at the same pace it is growing its business. Reserve Ratio = Total Insurance Reserves/Mobility Gross Booking 2024: Total Insurance Reserves: $9786m [----] Gross Bookings: $162773m [----] Reserve Ratio: 6%"
X Link 2025-11-28T21:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"8/ Q3 [--] Total Insurance Reserves: $11879 Q3 [--] Gross Bookings: $49740 (Run Rate of $198960m) Q3 [--] Reserve Ratio: 6%"
X Link 2025-11-28T21:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"10/ Read the full write-up on my substack and subscribe for more content: On Uber: Addressing Insurance Reserves https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/on-uber-addressing-insurance-reservesr=fhw3n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/on-uber-addressing-insurance-reservesr=fhw3n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true"
X Link 2025-11-28T21:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Youre right. Im not an actuary and I dont have proper loss triangles as you noted they arent available. So I made my case using available information. Im not making an actuarial case Im making an investment case and addressing concerns. This isnt [----] - $UBER has partnerships with $PGR progressive Liberty Mutual and more. $UBER takes first losses with its primary insurance as it should but its not a black sheep for insurers as you imply. And guess where Lyfts captive insurance is Hawaii. Hawaii is a common place for this because it has many regulatory benefits to support captive insurance."
X Link 2025-11-28T21:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"And $UBER maintains a $12b insurance reserve to cover the policies written by the insurance professionals such as progressive and benefits from their pricing and claims services while accepting the risk. As they should. I dont see the argument here $UBER maintains reserves to insure itself and taps into partners for operational expertise and some coverage (as well as their own personal ride-share coversge for waiting drivers). Im not arguing there shouldnt been more transparency in $UBER disclosures. Im not arguing they havent under reserved in the past. What I am saying is they ate that"
X Link 2025-11-28T21:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Revenue exploded because of a variety of things A [----] freight acquisition that 6xd freight revenue from 300m to 1.8b a [----] accounting change by UK required them to recognize revenue as gross instead of net which boosted revenue by 1.4b without adding any actual increased mobility miles or risk. it was purely accounting and $UBER delivery growth was in high 20s low 30s - insuring drivering burritos is much different than insuring drivers with [--] strangers in the car. Why did revenue explore +80% while reserves only when up 14% - tell me you know absolutely nothing about $UBER beyond tossing"
X Link 2025-11-28T22:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Certain business models can cloud headline financial numbers $UBER is an example. Its insurance accounting can distort headline Free Cash Flow metrics but that doesnt mean it isnt a compelling investment opportunity. Check out my recent write up digging into $UBER insurance reserves and dispelling the bear perspective. https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/on-uber-addressing-insurance-reservesr=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/on-uber-addressing-insurance-reservesr=fhw3n&utm_medium=ios"
X Link 2025-11-29T17:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is the answer. The idea that companies will hand over their hard earned brand to META AI is an extreme reach and I am a huge $META bull. I run a small business and use Canva Adobe and use $META as our primarily marketing tool. $META AI will tailor posts to particular audiences and alter engagement add ons etc but the idea that it will develop an entire marketing campaign for an established large brand is unrealistic. Will micro and small businesses hand over control to $META Sure I can see that but will Northface No"
X Link 2025-11-29T18:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"BNPL has existed for decades in the form of traditional credit cards. Headlines highlighting BNPL through a negative lens vs traditional credit card spending is entirely misleading. BNPL is often a more ethical and responsible form of credit use than revolving credit cards that are accepted norms in US consumer spending"
X Link 2025-11-29T21:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"BNPL has existed for decades in the form of traditional credit cards. Headlines highlighting BNPL through a negative lens vs traditional credit card spending is entirely misleading. BNPL is often a more ethical and responsible form of credit use than revolving credit cards that are accepted norms in US consumer spending. $SEZL @DeItaone Adobe says Buy Now Pay Later use jumped contributing $761.8M on Black Friday while mobile drove 58.6% of purchasessigns shoppers are stretching budgets and shopping on phones even as totals hit records. Cyber Monday still set to lead. @DeItaone Adobe says Buy"
X Link 2025-11-29T21:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CapexAndChill Great write up. $MELI looking good here and I hope to have the opportunity to add it to my portfolio. Appreciate your content and knowledge on the company"
X Link 2025-11-29T22:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$MELI has been on the top of my watchlist and is looking attractive after recent pullbacks. Diversified LatAm $AMZN-style e-commerce and fintech giant. Credit port growing 83%. Ads rev growing 63% & just getting started. [--] consecutive quarters of 30% rev growth. I don't claim to be an expert on valuation but if there is one business I feel good about valuing it has to be $MELI Let's take a walk through determining its valuation conservatively. The Setup: $MELI is not an e-commerce stock. Valuing it on a blended P/E multiple will make https://t.co/sRgmYzQ2ZU I don't claim to be an expert on"
X Link 2025-11-29T22:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Kathleen_Tyson_ @chigrl If thats what you have to say about BNPL I cant imagine the level of torture and punishment you wish on credit card companies"
X Link 2025-11-29T23:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$MELI looks like a very compelling investment - but it is impotent to note that businesses that use cash as a product have distorted headline FCF numbers - banks brokerages insurances payments etc. MELI does take the extra step of providing a footnote with adj FCF in their SEC filings removing the fintech impact because of this. Removing the inflating impacts of their fintech segment brings MELI TTM FCF down from a headline 8.6b to approx 1.33b of true FCF a 1.3% FCF yield vs the deceiving 8.2% headline FCF yield. How do you guys feel about $MELI I have heard nothing but great thing They are"
X Link 2025-11-30T01:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$GOOG completely delivered with Gemini [--]. I run an expanding small business non-profit company with two locations and [--] employees. We are reliant on fundraising and grant funding to provide our free services. For those unfamiliar grant writing is an intensive time consuming research heavy and data driven undertaking. Gemini Pro and in particular utilizing @NotebookLM have been the equivalent of hiring a full-time research assistant. Having the ability to upload dense data heavy research papers and reports to @NotebookLM along with all of our previously written grant reports and internal"
X Link 2025-11-30T20:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Stock_Inf0 $HIMS and $SEZL 🔥"
X Link 2025-11-30T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ $SEZL is breaking the model of BNPL. While most fintechs struggle to balance growth and profitability Sezzle is literally off the chart. 76% Revenue Growth 60% Gross Margins Trading at 14x [--] Earnings This is a "Rule of 165" company trading at a suppressed value. 🧵👇"
X Link 2025-11-30T22:37Z [----] followers, 24.2K engagements
"2/ $SEZL flipped the script. Competitors (Affirm/Klarna) fight for low-margin merchant business. Sezzle pivoted to a Consumer-First model. The result While peers hover near breakeven or losses Sezzles Net Profit Margins have exploded to 22-28%"
X Link 2025-11-30T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ $SEZL's business is not just transaction fees its a Subscription Compounder model. They are converting users into "Sezzle Anywhere" & "Sezzle Premium" subscribers (high LTV). Subscribers order 10x more often. Subscription revenue is recurring & high margin"
X Link 2025-11-30T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"4/Here is the alpha. $SEZL's price ran this year but sentiment has brought it down to earth yet Earnings continue to grow. Valuation has actually compressed. We are looking at: 18x TTM PE 14x Fwd PE (26) FWD PEG Ratio [----] Growth is cheap when sentiment is down"
X Link 2025-11-30T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"6/Management is obsessed with "Profitable Growth." CEO Charlie Youakim owns 44% of the float has never sold a share and quotes Buffett on calls. The alignment shows in the ROE ROIC and ROCE. Its They're nearly 100%. Capital efficiency is their differentiator"
X Link 2025-11-30T22:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"7/ "But what about subprime defaults" At these multiples defaults are priced in. Loss provisions are stable (3.1%) and within guidance. BNPL is a liquidity lifeline for their customers - they prioritize paying Sezzle to keep the account open"
X Link 2025-11-30T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"8/ Keep in mind: The Q4/Q1 Accounting Glitch. Q4 (Holidays): Sezzle provisions for losses upfront depressing Net Income). Q1 (Payoff): Sezzle recognizes the Revenue when paid. Don't get shaken out by "noisy" quarterly accounting bumps like last year. Look at the big picture"
X Link 2025-11-30T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"9/ $SEZL is a great setup: ✅ Founder-led (High Insider Ownership) ✅ Pivoted to High-LTV Subscriptions ✅ Profitable & FCF Positive ✅ Valuation Disconnect Im long $SEZL and adding. Check out my full deep dive here: https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/sezl-flipping-the-script-on-bnplr=fhw3n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web https://open.substack.com/pub/manuinvests/p/sezl-flipping-the-script-on-bnplr=fhw3n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web"
X Link 2025-11-30T22:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$PGR Most data driven auto insurance provider. Best in class ROE. Best in class combined ratio that hovers in the mid to high 80s. The combined ratio 84.2%. That is one of the most profitable combined ratios in the industry. Their stated goal is like 90%. That means they pay out 85% of premiums in losses and operational expenses so for all written premiums they make 15% in profit. largest market share unbelievable growth cagr with revenue and eps trading at extremely reasonable valuation suppressed by tariff concerns and rate cuts + AI big tech opportunity cost utilizing data to individualize"
X Link 2025-12-01T02:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@QualityInvest5 But the thing is youre not seeing the big picture that someday they will. so they say"
X Link 2025-12-01T03:32Z [---] followers, 11.6K engagements
"$UBER continues to diversify and strengthen beyond its core ride-sharing business. UberBusiness+UberHealth Delivery/Eats ( retail exposure) Click-work Freight Ads +strengthening rev base w UberOne + launch of experiences & start to finish travel services Retail @Uber grew 300% this Black Friday in the US powered by new partners like @BestBuy @HomeDepot @Petco and @Sephora. Consumer tech Christmas lights and other holiday must-haves like.storage totes https://t.co/400zqFkz1M Retail @Uber grew 300% this Black Friday in the US powered by new partners like @BestBuy @HomeDepot @Petco and @Sephora."
X Link 2025-12-02T15:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"While we are on $UBER great thread by @CapexAndChill. @dkhos is an amazing CEO. He has successfully navigated $UBER through a massive pivot from a cash-burning growth at all costs company to a disciplined compounder. He is diversifying the business and solidified the revenue base with UberOne subscriptions while positioning $UBER as the best-in-class partner/aggregator for AVs. Combined with a shift toward GAAP profitability and a $20B buyback the company is balancing growth with capital discipline. Dara runs $UBER like he runs his earnings calls: straight to the point and no BS. Check one"
X Link 2025-12-02T17:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"AI traffic share is normalizing. $GOOG vs $OAI And the market is waking up to the unit economics. Google: Zero marginal cost distribution. Prints cash. OpenAI: Massive compute costs per user. Burns cash. Thats Operating Leverage. Who do you really think is going to win"
X Link 2025-12-03T14:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Not only is Gemini taking market share it's becoming the stickiest product in AI. Users are spending more time per session in Gemini than ChatGPT. Yes - there was an initial lag but Gemini post-1.0 is a vastly different animal. $GOOG"
X Link 2025-12-03T14:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"1/ $DECK is dislocated. I talk a lot about price vs. value. $DECK is a great example. Since the start of the year the stock price has decoupled from the fundamental reality of the business. Price is noise execution matters. And right now $DECK looks attractive. 🧵👇"
X Link 2025-12-03T19:18Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"2/ $DECK WAS too expensive agreed. Earlier this year the multiple got ahead of itself. But we have now returned to earth. The stock is trading near 13x PE levels we haven't seen in years. You are buying a compounder with 30%+ EPS growth for a multiple for low-growth companies"
X Link 2025-12-03T19:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3/Management knows its cheap and is returning value to shareholders. They are aggressively eating up their own shares. FY25: Repurchased $567M at $149/share. Q2 FY26: Accelerated buybacks 2.6M shares $282M at $109/share. They have another $2.2B authorized (16% of the market cap). This provides a floor the stock while accelerating EPS. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1996297985248919629 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1996297985248919629"
X Link 2025-12-03T19:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"4/ $DECK does not have to spend heavily or discount deeply to maintain this growth. While peers like $NKE see margins compress $DECK is expanding. $DECK operating margins remain best-in-class (23%) and gross margins are holding near record highs (56-57%). They are growing revenue faster than expenses. That is the definition of leverage"
X Link 2025-12-03T19:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"5/ The fundamental growth hasn't stopped. Despite the tariff headlines and macro fear the revenue and earnings continue to go up and to the right. We are still seeing double-digit growth in HOKA and continued strength in UGG. The business is bigger and more profitable than it was when the stock was $200+"
X Link 2025-12-03T19:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"7/ So why the sell-off Tariff Guidance conservative management and headlines about consumer softness. They noted 1H was focused on wholesale (lower margin) to beat potential tariff impacts shifting focus to DTC for the 2H holiday season. There is short term uncertainty but for long-term this short-term noise is what creates an attractive entry. h/t: @AIStockSavvy"
X Link 2025-12-03T19:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"8/ Zero Debt. 13x PE Valuation. Aggressive Buybacks. Chris Bloomstran (I am a fan of his investing philosophies) recently opened a position and continues to add. It may take time for the sentiment to shift but I am happy to sit in this name while the company prints cash and buyback shares. I added earlier this year and have continued to do so at record low multiples. $DECK is re-gaining momentum with recent analyst upgrades. The setup here looks attractive. Take a look if you haven't. Keep in mind: There is always the built in retail risk but at these valuations I am willing to buy and hold"
X Link 2025-12-03T19:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@NanoBanana - I built this chart on @fiscal_ai and nano bananad the shaded multiple expansion area onto it. Honestly 'nano bananad' is prime material for the 'my product is a verb' hall of fame along with googled. @GoogleAI @sundarpichai $GOOG $GOOGL 1/ $DECK is dislocated. I talk a lot about price vs. value. $DECK is a great example. Since the start of the year the stock price has decoupled from the fundamental reality of the business. Price is noise execution matters. And right now $DECK looks attractive. 🧵👇 https://t.co/3Kq4c25cV3 1/ $DECK is dislocated. I talk a lot about price vs."
X Link 2025-12-03T20:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
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