#  @LionnetPierre Pierre Lionnet Pierre Lionnet posts on X about spacex, starlink, investment, elon musk the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::3169219319/interactions)  - [--] Week [---------] +9,725% - [--] Month [---------] +1,116% - [--] Months [---------] +2,429% - [--] Year [---------] +453% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::3169219319/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -66% - [--] Months [---] +109% - [--] Year [---] +5.80% ### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::3169219319/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.21% - [--] Month [-----] +0.81% - [--] Months [-----] +7.30% - [--] Year [-----] +14% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::3169219319/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [countries](/list/countries) [stocks](/list/stocks) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [currencies](/list/currencies) [us election](/list/us-election) **Social topic influence** [spacex](/topic/spacex) #307, [starlink](/topic/starlink), [investment](/topic/investment), [elon musk](/topic/elon-musk) #1455, [leo](/topic/leo), [ipo](/topic/ipo) #95, [money](/topic/money), [business](/topic/business), [starship](/topic/starship), [space](/topic/space) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@tmfassociates](/creator/undefined) [@starlink](/creator/undefined) [@bellikozan](/creator/undefined) [@megaconstellati](/creator/undefined) [@inemesitaffia](/creator/undefined) [@elonmusk](/creator/undefined) [@andrewparsonson](/creator/undefined) [@spacenewsinc](/creator/undefined) [@peterrhague](/creator/undefined) [@cpl43uk](/creator/undefined) [@sciguyspace](/creator/undefined) [@olegkutkov](/creator/undefined) [@nedhirsahli](/creator/undefined) [@peterjbeck](/creator/undefined) [@fikocian](/creator/undefined) [@thertest](/creator/undefined) [@stormsilvawalk1](/creator/undefined) [@spacex](/creator/undefined) [@xfinancialx](/creator/undefined) [@jackkuhr](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [StarLink (STARL)](/topic/starlink) [StarShip (STARSHIP)](/topic/starship) [Rocket Lab USA, Inc. Common Stock (RKLB)](/topic/$rklb) [Morgan Stanley (MS)](/topic/morgan-stanley) [AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Class A Common Stock (ASTS)](/topic/$asts) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [Neutron (NTRN)](/topic/neutron) [Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR)](/topic/$lunr) [The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)](/topic/$geo) [ORBIT (GRIFT)](/topic/orbit) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "The space manufacturing industry is a net contributor to the European trade balance. New Eurospace research on space economics (with real & verifiable facts inside 😉) La conqute de l'espace profite la balance commerciale de l'Europe : https://t.co/wNp8wiew0M via @LesEchos La conqute de l'espace profite la balance commerciale de l'Europe : https://t.co/wNp8wiew0M via @LesEchos" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1399636436400345092) 2021-06-01T07:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Always surprised to be surprised by @SpaceCapital quarterly. Today I discover a company called Moonspike raising 45M$ in Series C & one of the largest rounds of the quarter. It is obviously not this one: @moonspike but I can't find anything else. Any clues anyone :)" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1618181810189664258) 2023-01-25T09:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I wish now to digress a little on some companies that are included starting with the ones that are in my opinion completely unrelated to space. For instance @Lilium is an electric plane business. Why is it in the "space" index 6/12" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1619023732793839616) 2023-01-27T17:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Similarly @aerovironment "AeroVironment Inc. is an American defense contractor headquartered in Arlington Virginia that designs and manufactures unmanned aerial vehicles. " what is it doing in the HELIOS SPACE index It is not space and it is not even European. 7/12" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1619023735339782146) 2023-01-27T17:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "My estimate is that of the three ETFs only UFO has a good relavance to space (60%) It is followed by ARKX (30%) SPEAR ALPHA is a bit like HELIOS SPACE with less than 5% of its value being driven by space markets dynamics. 11/12 https://ark-funds.com/funds/arkx/ https://procureetfs.com/ufo/ https://ark-funds.com/funds/arkx/ https://procureetfs.com/ufo/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1619023748019150848) 2023-01-27T17:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Now that the Intuititve Machines $LUNR IPO is complete let me gather here some information on the de-SPAC process. Was it any good We have seen worse. But good . 1/ https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1622264436005244928 So we have a new space SPAC breeding. Last year I worked with a master student on a toolbox to analyse the SPAC thesis. Let's see how Intuitive Machines performs on our indicators. 👉This is NOT investment advice. 1/ https://t.co/reYz7XeBpF https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1622264436005244928 So we have a new space SPAC breeding. Last year I worked with a master student on a" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1625913562534117384) 2023-02-15T17:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The redemption rate was not great. [--] million shares were redeemed: a vast majority of $IPAX shareholders chose a refund rather than convert their stock to $LUNR. This reduced the cash available to @Int_Machines by 280M$ (out of the 301M$ expected). 2/ https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filings/Form+8-KA+Intuitive+Machines%2C+Inc.+For%3A+Feb+13/21228287.html https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filings/Form+8-KA+Intuitive+Machines%2C+Inc.+For%3A+Feb+13/21228287.html" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1625913566799831041) 2023-02-15T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@VardaSpace When [--] means [--]. "The $60 million agreement includes $15 million from Air Force and NASA customers $15 million from the AFWERX organization that sponsors the STRATFI program and $30 million in private funding from Vardas venture investors." https://spacenews.com/u-s-air-force-to-test-hardware-at-hypersonic-speeds-on-vardas-space-capsules/ https://spacenews.com/u-s-air-force-to-test-hardware-at-hypersonic-speeds-on-vardas-space-capsules/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1668900374789468160) 2023-06-14T08:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@peterrhague @cpl43uk [--] tons worth of satellites built and launched for 25M$ (or 1600$/kg) in total seems highly improbable to me. Anyone can speculate on SpaceX costs but some assumptions are less credible to me because they diverge too much from other known/verifiable facts" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1678668591170822145) 2023-07-11T07:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@peterrhague @cpl43uk Do you have actual quotes on these costs Because i dont think i have seen anything else than vague statements" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1678670901691179009) 2023-07-11T07:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@peterrhague @cpl43uk SpaceX is an industry like any other industry. They buy stuff rent stuff and pay salaries" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1678676468610498561) 2023-07-11T08:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@SpacerFC @peterrhague @cpl43uk Consensus I dont any serious space analyst that shares this view" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1678724482590990341) 2023-07-11T11:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@peterrhague @cpl43uk That's probably as close as we can get to an official statement that I could find (in 2020). Falcon [--] "Costs $28M to launch it thats with everything." So 25M$ with sats included seems really far fetched to me" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1678812133008474127) 2023-07-11T17:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I thought I had seen it all. but no wackiness knows no boundaries obviously. 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1685617069939736576) 2023-07-30T23:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "According to this article the retiring David Limp did not make the smartest choices when it came to adding services and devices to the Amazon lineup. He was the man behind Kuiper" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1692831260467515416) 2023-08-19T09:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@MatthewGill42 @Stefan__Powell Fact is that whatever bespoke solution you get for small satellite launch the price per kg is always very high. This kills most business cases" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1695736799996354752) 2023-08-27T09:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "@santoshDynamics I posted this already in the past. The US competition was lagging but [--] years ago you could fly commercial to LEO with Ariane Proton and Soyuz all below 10k$/kg" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1701101607407030272) 2023-09-11T05:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Musk admitting Starship is a money pit Musk now [--] tells Isaacson that he could have made a lot of money had he not built SpaceXs biggest rocket the Starship. But I could not then have made life multiplanetary. $ElonQ Halfway through our conversation he took a video call from one of his Tesla factories which appeared to be on fire. Is it important he asked. The guy in the burning factory seemed unsure. Then dont bother me he snapped and hung up. https://t.co/7brH8xOAEc $ElonQ Halfway through our conversation he took a video call from one of his Tesla factories which appeared to be on fire. Is" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1703357655878652088) 2023-09-17T10:38Z [----] followers, 11K engagements "Your business model requires a reentry licence but you did not manage to secure one before launch @VardaSpace "The FAA says Varda launched its vehicle into space without a reentry license."" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1704778858577183133) 2023-09-21T08:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Northrop was uncertain that the commercial market existed beyond guaranteed contracts to house NASA astronauts and this is likely what led to its decision to drop a bid. I share this view. 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1709323651940483454) 2023-10-03T21:44Z [----] followers, 42.3K engagements "The deceptive belief in the lowering costs of space infrastructure fueling an exponential market growth has affected procurement policies and has created an economically unsustainable environment for investors and suppliers. 7/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1709323673117556837) 2023-10-03T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The simple fact that Jeff Bezos stated that he would co-fund with NASA the Blue Moon lander is bordering with corporate insanity. Can a company be managed as a very expensive hobby by its owner 8/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1709323676582035908) 2023-10-03T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A vibrant lunar economy will hinge on finding commercial customers for the lunar lander builders not just NASAIntuitive Machines has partnered with Columbia Sportswear to fly the clothier's trademark thermal-reflective liner on the Nova-C lander set for launch next month. 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1709461533976154532) 2023-10-04T06:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In case there are still some doubts about Amazon Kuiper having/consideroing OISL heres a job offering for just that. 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1711300167826313448) 2023-10-09T08:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Also interesting to scroll through the 200+ open positions at Kuiper esp. seeing how many positions are about building a B2G sales team targeting IC (intelligence community). Amazon may be realising that the market opportunity for residential broadband isnt that juicy /2" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1711300170128773500) 2023-10-09T08:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A 'close race' for European spaceports - but is there even a prize to win The demand for small launch is very low volume fragmented mostly non European often non solvent and typically non recurring. 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1711328498470547589) 2023-10-09T10:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "See here the demand for Light (VEGA Dnepr Rockot CZ4 Antares PSLV Zhuque class) and Very Light launchers (CZ11 Electron Epsilon Kuaizhou LauncherOne Minotaur Pegasus XL class). At 15B$/year the demand for light launch was 10x the demand for very light launch. 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1711328501775700280) 2023-10-09T10:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The European demand for very light launchers (i.e. the ones that are brewing in European startups) was 29M$ in [--] years. The largest demand in the decade was in the USA with 710M$ followed by China with 224M$. So what's to win with this 'race' 3/end" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1711328505529565556) 2023-10-09T10:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements "Hello @JasonRainbow what is the source for the [---] workforce figure in this article - the most recent company filing for $GOMX state different numbers. https://gomspace.com/UserFiles/Q2_online_version.pdf https://spacenews.com/major-gomspace-satellite-customer-withholding-payments/ https://gomspace.com/UserFiles/Q2_online_version.pdf https://spacenews.com/major-gomspace-satellite-customer-withholding-payments/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1714221860173365484) 2023-10-17T10:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Great lobbying by SpaceX via @arstechnica The discussion with Ars was convened by SpaceX in advance of a hearing on Wednesday before the US Subcommittee on Space and Science. 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1714354267266412854) 2023-10-17T18:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "When SpaceX launches a Starlink mission these days theyre using every kilo of launch capacity they possibly can on Falcon [--]. Everybody else is leaving a lot on the table" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1717504303361863886) 2023-10-26T11:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@RULO999 The ones that target defense and sovereignty programmes and stay away from aspirational dreams of a space fairing civilisation. Also careful recourse to PPP and FFP contracting with good cost control and transparent financial reporting. Sensible executives would be a plus" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1720797707474788500) 2023-11-04T13:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@RULO999 I dont think Starlink is a viable long term business case. Same with Starship. Falcon is probably a good business and likely the sole profitable line in SpaceX. But not profitable enough to sustain the rest though" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1720861720707490117) 2023-11-04T17:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@starlinkinsider Starlink Transforming the maritime industry Isnt that a tad exaggerating Transforming the maritime connectivity market seems more accurate" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1723399340255817993) 2023-11-11T17:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@littlebluena @BellikOzan @ChrispyLispy @Robotbeat @BEA_News these trends are actually quite flat in value. The only growth segment in space is Starlink and according to Musk these satellites are so cheap to build and launch that the overall infrastructure market is not growing despite the incredible volume of activity they generate" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1729800894999405008) 2023-11-29T09:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Anton81191831 @TMFAssociates @13ericralph31 Interesting figure are these 500M$ a guess or is there any documented reference behind them According to the WSJ leaked financial data SpaceX revenues were 46B in [----]. To make this total match with revenues from launch Dragon and Starlink we are short of 800M" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1731253716483735638) 2023-12-03T10:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@ChenrySpace Well. 20k satellites by [----] is still very optimistic IMHO. Esp. considering that Starlinks are getting larger and thus deployment rate goes down (until/if Starship takes over). Wonder what total mass projections you are making" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1732357955041824831) 2023-12-06T11:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Hi Space Twitter I am a tad confused with this news "Huawei has launched two pairs of Ka-band prototype satellites (on August 21st and November 19th)". I can't find these satellites (nor the launches) anywhere. Help appreciated" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1734608123430920502) 2023-12-12T16:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ChinaSpaceGuy @iridiumsat Thanks a lot. My understanding is that Galaxy Space built the test satellites (not Huawei) and we had them in our database. Still unclear to me is whether 1) Huawei was the customer and 2) if these satellites are precursors to the Guowang constellation or something else" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1734876792568119326) 2023-12-13T10:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Deutsche Telekom is charging [----] euros ($5.50) per month for up to [--] messages (180 Characters max) using the satellite service. Let's see how much Starlink will charge. But I hardly see this ever becoming a massive revenue source. The six @Starlink satellites on this mission with Direct to Cell capability will further global connectivity and help to eliminate dead zones https://t.co/FgiJ7LOYdK https://t.co/zFy7SrpsYs The six @Starlink satellites on this mission with Direct to Cell capability will further global connectivity and help to eliminate dead zones https://t.co/FgiJ7LOYdK" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1742463399538118674) 2024-01-03T08:30Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements "Simply put the Bryce "Global space economy" is not a good indicator for the space infrastructure business. Thence any forecast extrapolating on it (e.g. Morgan Stanley shown here) is largely irrelevant to the space infrastructure industry (and does not constitute its TAM). @adriannorris Just for context the "Space economy" data by Bryce shows 1) there was no growth in the space infrastructure market (satellite + launch) in the past decades 2) the markets for "services" and " ground equipment" are uncorrelated to the space infrastructure. https://t.co/oBQcvEIndm @adriannorris Just for context" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1745522634228453543) 2024-01-11T19:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "One more comment on this. When assessing solar power satellite projects if the analysis does not include EROEI it misses at least half the point. After noting that "space transportation costs are the single most impactful cost barrier" NASA study on solar power satellites (SPS) starts with the wrong cost assumptions and thence brings in the wrong conclusions on LCOE from SPS. https://t.co/ZvUHD3Uf9L 1/ https://t.co/mvo7ymjCmx After noting that "space transportation costs are the single most impactful cost barrier" NASA study on solar power satellites (SPS) starts with the wrong cost" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1745817304670085311) 2024-01-12T14:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I was also very surprised when I heard the Tbps reference. Hopefully this will be clarified @elonmusk mentions that the #Starlink v2-mini satellites have [---] Tbps capacity compared to [--] Tbps for the previous generation but I'm guessing he misspoke and meant Gbps Because Starlink v1.0 satellites each had a capacity of [--] Gb/s so jumping to [---] Tbps seems unlikely. @elonmusk mentions that the #Starlink v2-mini satellites have [---] Tbps capacity compared to [--] Tbps for the previous generation but I'm guessing he misspoke and meant Gbps Because Starlink v1.0 satellites each had a capacity of 20" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1746175063336833138) 2024-01-13T14:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Former NASA administrator Mike Griffin states that "commercial space" is nothing but a "catchphrase" and that NASA is the "only significant customer for human missions to the Moon". So much for the Lunar Economy myth. An interesting aspect of today's House hearing on Artemis was that one witness former administrator Mike Griffin said Artemis is the wrong way to return humans to the Moon and in his prepared testimony offered details on an alternative. No one asked him any questions on it. An interesting aspect of today's House hearing on Artemis was that one witness former administrator Mike" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1747999221620318461) 2024-01-18T15:07Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "responsive launch is unlikely to be more than a niche amidst the larger small satellite launch market. says US Space Force vice Chief. Guetlein calls for a change in culture in responsive space https://t.co/2VcR7gNVkL https://t.co/PGh0QIyDWV Guetlein calls for a change in culture in responsive space https://t.co/2VcR7gNVkL https://t.co/PGh0QIyDWV" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1748842419108360193) 2024-01-20T22:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I do support these statements of course. The new space startup environment is currently unsustainable. .@ASDEurospace to @defis_eu @EIF_EU @esa: We've created more NewSpace startups than the market can support; established co's are showing 'unprecedented' low profitability. #EuropeanSpaceConf. https://t.co/mM4xFkLxvR https://t.co/cQSP4Dnlpt .@ASDEurospace to @defis_eu @EIF_EU @esa: We've created more NewSpace startups than the market can support; established co's are showing 'unprecedented' low profitability. #EuropeanSpaceConf. https://t.co/mM4xFkLxvR https://t.co/cQSP4Dnlpt" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1750068267782181232) 2024-01-24T08:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Starlink ARPU in Europe is about 600/yr or half the US value. @starlinkinsider Another Starlink residential price drop in Europe. Roam prices also dropped but I don't have a table. https://t.co/pMsreF8yo7 @starlinkinsider Another Starlink residential price drop in Europe. Roam prices also dropped but I don't have a table. https://t.co/pMsreF8yo7" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1750648584758763900) 2024-01-25T22:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@starlinkinsider This data is also telling that the customer base for satellite internet access is not so large. Starlink growth will probably slow down after it has dried out the GEO segment customers" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1750650248177807732) 2024-01-25T22:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "the full amount be repaid which in this instance will be made through the payment of royalties over the first [--] years of the commercial operation of Miura [--]. A 4M/year repayment will make it very hard to close the business case. And no interest rate on the loan .@PLD_Space has been awarded a [----] million loan from the Spanish Government to complete the development of Miura [--]. https://t.co/KE14t8IDbU .@PLD_Space has been awarded a [----] million loan from the Spanish Government to complete the development of Miura [--]. https://t.co/KE14t8IDbU" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1751184579782656057) 2024-01-27T10:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "These charts are complete nonsense of course. Theyre akin to comparing formula one costs with production cars. Moreover the Falcon costs provided are aspirational not real customer prices. It is [--] times cheaper to get to orbit than when I first flew: $100 ticket becomes $4 and dropping. Imagine if that happened in air sea rail or road transport. Report @Deloitte: https://t.co/BicmkCOjXQ https://t.co/6G1thYKbVX It is [--] times cheaper to get to orbit than when I first flew: $100 ticket becomes $4 and dropping. Imagine if that happened in air sea rail or road transport. Report @Deloitte:" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1751540500828471495) 2024-01-28T09:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DutchSatellites @Cmdr_Hadfield When you are buying the launch the price is your cost. And moreover since SpaceX doesnt publish financial information the notion of cost is as reliable as hearsay" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1751643571520704792) 2024-01-28T16:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Therefore I keep questioning the relevance of this figure for the space industry (i.e. the infrastructure suppliers). Whatever you may think about that forecast it is not TAM for the space industry. 4/end (and here is the link to the Bloomberg feature)" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1752306975419814217) 2024-01-30T12:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@dan_tmt Of these constellations only a couple have the funds to proceed. This is what that chart was about. I explain it later in my talk. The sector is blatantly under capitalized to live up to its expectations" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1752980217721651311) 2024-02-01T09:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@dan_tmt The full talk is still available here" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1753026435734757478) 2024-02-01T12:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Starlink ARPU in France now 600/year no upfront cost no long term commitment" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1753572947774578719) 2024-02-03T00:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@AndrewParsonson @luchotiz @FT @Avio_Group @esa @SpaceX SpaceX may not be 100% 'the rest of the market' but not far: - 82% of total mass launched worldwide in [----] - 47% of the total mass launched (Starlink not included) Falcon captured 57% of the total demand on the 'open' market in the past [--] years (and 83% of it in 2023)" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1754567459267281308) 2024-02-05T18:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "With @NedhirSahli we are finalising our space activity database with [----] data sets. As I go through various verifications I am pleased to share some graphical outcomes in a short hopefully informative thread. All charts are (c) by Eurospace. 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1754889943854305654) 2024-02-06T15:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Here's our estimate of the global launch market at market price equivalents and purchase power parities (PPP). Most of the demand (75%) comes from US and Chinese customers. The recent growth is due to the high value of the SLS launch and the large number of Starlink launches. 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1754889945557168225) 2024-02-06T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "These show the total mass launched by customer region split between private and public/government funded programmes. The chart is also rendered without Starlink for readers to appreciate the specific impact of this constellation on statistics. 3/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1754889948115660871) 2024-02-06T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Government spending is still by very far the driving force behind space infrastructure deployment. The business opportunity provided by privately funded programmes is still very low in comparison. This chart estimates the cost of infrastructure for the customer (R&D excl.). 4/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1754889950347096480) 2024-02-06T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "It has been two decades that we hear that the commercial space sector is "booming". While this is somehow true in number and mass of satellites launched it is only because of Starlink (an 'anomaly' in the sector). Otherwise there is no notable growth in mass or value. 5/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1754889952825946382) 2024-02-06T15:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Some analysts have consistently passed Starlink as a general trend while it is by all means a unique phenomenon in the sector and has no rivals as per today. See here Starlink in context with other 'not mega' constellations. Again proof that Starlink is uniquely big. 6/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1754889955183051127) 2024-02-06T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Now let's focus a little on Government programmes. Here is the total mass launched by mission. Human spaceflight is the major contributor to orbital launch activity worldwide (after Starlink). 7/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1754889957607354816) 2024-02-06T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@aravindEO I guess this is only about private equity investment Because government investment in observation satellites is at least one order of magnitude higher" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1755293013062959390) 2024-02-07T18:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "As shown in this FAA forecast in [----] nobody saw Starlink coming. Fun fact: the FAA didn't see Oneweb coming either although it was announced in [----]. Forecasts are like astrology to me: a matter of irrational belief. 1/2" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1756307042006896873) 2024-02-10T13:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@John__Holst @mouthofmorrison It is somewhat nasty and funny to look them up on linkedin see where they're at now" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1756366975242998118) 2024-02-10T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "ROI or not ROI Is there a future for Satellite communications after SpaceX/Starlink This week it has become crystal clear that some of the most experienced companies in the satellite sector don't believe there can be an ROI for additional capital investment in the face of competition from SpaceX. Some investors haven't realized that yet. This week it has become crystal clear that some of the most experienced companies in the satellite sector don't believe there can be an ROI for additional capital investment in the face of competition from SpaceX. Some investors haven't realized that yet" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1759530779040682450) 2024-02-19T10:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "A space VC and its menagerie of fantastic animals (or plants) See next post for other categories to use. 1/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1761031822123618616) 2024-02-23T14:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@eager_space released another well done informative video telling the story of geosynchronous satellite launch. This has been for decades the only commercial segment of the launch market (that is now slowly phasing out)" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1771592915405459672) 2024-03-23T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@BellikOzan It will be interesting to see what market share new launchers will be able to (re)capture. And if SpaceX will start to pass its cost savings to customers to maintain its lead. So far we dont see demand growing" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1773805338963185673) 2024-03-29T20:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Pure players in space business [--] year stock performance a video. 1/3" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1776561475957489945) 2024-04-06T10:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "And just for the fun of it the space index jointly designed by ESA the European Commission and Euronext. Accurate" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1776565367860592876) 2024-04-06T10:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Just noticed that what Declan Ganley of @RivadaNetworks describes here is nothing but the old fashioned VSAT networks available for the past decades from GEO operators. Do you need a LEO constellation for that @pbdes https://www.spaceintelreport.com/rivada-says-investor-interest-in-its-broadband-constellation-is-high-but-provides-few-details-on-financing-status/ https://www.spaceintelreport.com/rivada-says-investor-interest-in-its-broadband-constellation-is-high-but-provides-few-details-on-financing-status/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1780881642573254916) 2024-04-18T08:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "So thanks to @breadfrom we now also have a peek at the 2018-2019 SpaceX financials. See below my tracking of SpaceX revenues leaked to the press so far. I must add that I find it incredibly frustrating that the press is not disclosing the full documents. Speaking of Starlink old SpaceX balance sheets from [----] & [----] show the degree to which the company was hanging its hat on bringing that business unit online: https://t.co/wIVvbOfc6H Speaking of Starlink old SpaceX balance sheets from [----] & [----] show the degree to which the company was hanging its hat on bringing that business unit online:" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1781020987032560109) 2024-04-18T18:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@BryceSpaceTech @DougonIPComm So how many of these are Starlink Is there still a smallsat trend in [----] now that Starlinks are bigger #rethoric" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1782846807585743059) 2024-04-23T18:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@sling_shot_aero Hello I am confused by this chart here in your report. What is included in the Mass count The peaks above [---] tons/year in 2006-2011 are quite new to me. See our own estimate for comparison" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1785303076070379779) 2024-04-30T13:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Space Public budgets are in growth Well. for those where actual data is available the trend is not so clear. Of course if you add on top the estimates for undocumented budgets you can make it look the way you like. 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1787454551420793308) 2024-05-06T12:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "There are still high barriers to invest in the space economy. The "long temporal dimension" is often overlooked these days where every newcomer startup instantly labels itself as a leader in its field. 4/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1787454557439537620) 2024-05-06T12:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Government answers to investment barriers rely on a common toolbox where R&D is subsidised debt and trade finance are facilitated and equity is backed by gvt funds. all going to indicate that pure market forces are not capable to sustain the level of investment required. 5/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1787454559905783920) 2024-05-06T12:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Megaconstellati @larrypress @Starlink Taiwan would need to send hundreds of satellites if it were to create a system that provides uninterrupted backup internet access experts told CNN. what experts With that use case one GEO bird would suffice esp. if you need internet backbone backup" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1788221256354943293) 2024-05-08T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Watching the replay. Coming at this chart I find that the [----] Capex estimate is incredibly challenging at 2200$/kg to orbit launch included. I think this is overly optimistic and seems to value F9 launch at much less than the usual 28M$ 'all costs included' assumption. 1/ To anyone who missed our Starlink webinar this morning a replay is accessible here: https://t.co/cDDgbge11I To anyone who missed our Starlink webinar this morning a replay is accessible here: https://t.co/cDDgbge11I" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1788935232613171424) 2024-05-10T14:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In this chart here it seems that the 'cost' per Mbps does not factor in the space segment D&A which is the largest cost item by far for the whole system. whatever assumption you make. 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1788935238086750710) 2024-05-10T14:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "When creating the Starlink financial model the highest & most cost sensitive item is the constellation capex and the profit/loss/FCF assumptions hinge on how you estimate the cost of satellites build & launch & the assumptions on satellite lifetime (and its impact on D&A). 3/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1788935241303781610) 2024-05-10T14:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ChenrySpace I see that. Ive been playing with these figures too but if F9 is really so cheap other things dont add up in the SpaceX model so I dont consider it to be the baseline assumption" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1788965542855946641) 2024-05-10T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@marisafromearth @SciGuySpace @QuiltySpace Vertical integration is hardly considered an efficient way to industrialise mass market products. See cars appliances electronic devices etc. I think that Starlink cost efficiency lies in large batch automated production technology downgrading & design to launch" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1789650886894981162) 2024-05-12T13:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "And we still have no practical use for He3 BTW The idea that it is necessary to mine He3 on the Moon for energy is now outdated thanks to recent discoveries that show He3 is far more abundant on Earth that thought previously especially in volcanic outflows like those in Hawaii and Iceland. He3 is also found in deep natural https://t.co/3ArKJxaLDu The idea that it is necessary to mine He3 on the Moon for energy is now outdated thanks to recent discoveries that show He3 is far more abundant on Earth that thought previously especially in volcanic outflows like those in Hawaii and Iceland. He3 is" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1789690491627270418) 2024-05-12T16:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "In this interview @Peter_J_Beck takes about [--] minutes to not answer the simple question "who are the customers for Neutron". It seems that customers wanting to buy "lots of launch" are not easily identified or named (except the US military of course). 1/ https://youtu.be/T__1ubfs_iEt=445 https://youtu.be/T__1ubfs_iEt=445" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1789991623213904253) 2024-05-13T12:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "But eventually Peter Beck concludes that "Neutron demand is not a thing I am worried about" which really leaves me wondering. 2/ https://youtu.be/T__1ubfs_iEt=722 https://youtu.be/T__1ubfs_iEt=722" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1789991625915056235) 2024-05-13T12:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@vinceisbullish @Peter_J_Beck Why not" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1790047222245073176) 2024-05-13T15:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@figuringoutcast @vinceisbullish @Peter_J_Beck Can you be more specific about 'promising' What customers do you see in the pipeline for Neutron" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1790048369009664106) 2024-05-13T15:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Rapheal013 @figuringoutcast @vinceisbullish @Peter_J_Beck That is exactly my point a non expanding customer base with a growing array of new launchers to cater to it leading to a globally decreasing market shares for all suppliers with increased pression on prices and eventually low cadence" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1790312093440188637) 2024-05-14T09:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Rapheal013 @figuringoutcast @vinceisbullish @Peter_J_Beck Misleading. Most of these non Starlink smallsats are so very small that they dont represent a sizeable market for launchers. I did a thread to show how these stats in numbers create a false illusion of growth" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1790487525821190618) 2024-05-14T21:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Rapheal013 @figuringoutcast @vinceisbullish @Peter_J_Beck Starlink is actually killing the competition in Broadband internet leaving very little space to the new and incumbent players. Hence my doubts with the effective rollout of competing constellation in the same space. Moreover most projects are underfunded" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1790703236963266925) 2024-05-15T11:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Newer ask a Kiwi where the demand to scale up his new launcher will come from but wait do I see a pattern here Is the whole sector rooting for powerpoint constellations Never ask man his salary and European satellite manufacturer where the demand for [---] sats a year will come from Never ask man his salary and European satellite manufacturer where the demand for [---] sats a year will come from" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1792117524475109437) 2024-05-19T08:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Le @shift_europepublie un rapport sur l'impact environnemental des rseaux numriques. Il consacre une section aux constellations" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1793360155779760235) 2024-05-22T19:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Reading in this recent article by @AndrewParsonson this quote from @DianaMorantR For every euro we invest in the space sector we generate up to [--] euros for our countrys economy.. Would love to have a reference for this figure. https://europeanspaceflight.com/spain-publishes-e70m-space-technology-call/ https://europeanspaceflight.com/spain-publishes-e70m-space-technology-call/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1793916194980086001) 2024-05-24T08:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@John__Holst looks into the impact of deorbiting satellites in this piece. A good moment to recall that after focusing solely on orbital pollution the sector now starts looking at atmospheric impacts of space activity. A well needed shift. 1/ https://open.substack.com/pub/illdefinedspace/p/getting-down-to-earth-with-satellites https://open.substack.com/pub/illdefinedspace/p/getting-down-to-earth-with-satellites" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1793927835050234106) 2024-05-24T08:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Taking the opportunity to repost the link to this recent report by @shift_europe looking at the environmental impact of mega-constellations with the useful reminder that nothing compares to Starlink in terms of mass deployed in LEO usage. 2/ https://theshiftproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/The-Shift-Project-Strategie-pour-des-reseaux-numeriques-sobres-et-resilients-Rapport-final-2024.pdf https://theshiftproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/The-Shift-Project-Strategie-pour-des-reseaux-numeriques-sobres-et-resilients-Rapport-final-2024.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1793927838669918288) 2024-05-24T08:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@CJHandmer It seems that by focusing on cost in $ and not on EROI the paper misses the point. Today PV is cheap bc produced with hydrocarbon. The EROI may not even be positive as experts in the matter endlessly debate. And if PV is an energy sink all this is meaningless" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1794312872019030496) 2024-05-25T10:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A discussion on the assumptions underlying the economics of SpaceX and Starlink and how the very low cost for falcon launch is inescapably tied to Starlink profitability but also implies a very high mark-up on falcon launches sold to external customers. https://spacenews.com/spacex-and-the-categorical-imperative-to-achieve-low-launch-cost/ https://spacenews.com/spacex-and-the-categorical-imperative-to-achieve-low-launch-cost/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1799076932438688160) 2024-06-07T13:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@jmlu77 Indeed. And in fact this seems to be one of the elements of the Rocket Lab strategy. But then another question arises: how far can the demand for satellite broadband can be stretched to enable more mega-constellations" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1799090371290685664) 2024-06-07T14:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TMFAssociates @davehuntsman Well China is promoting at least [--] mega constellations and they could achieve the same economics (or better). My interrogation is around the growth prospects for satellite broadband demand and the validity of the assumptions in the model" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1799353426213789846) 2024-06-08T08:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TMFAssociates @davehuntsman That is an excellent question" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1799357992963567828) 2024-06-08T08:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I am reading a report on Scotland's space sector and they state that @SaxaVord_Space received over [---] million GBP in funding. Last time i looked the figure I had was around 40M$. Can anyone confirm this [---] million GBP figure https://scottishscience.org.uk/sites/default/files/2024-05/SSAC%20Space%20Report%20-%20Annex%20E%20-%20Brief%20overview%20of%20Scottish%20industrial%20landscape_2.pdf https://scottishscience.org.uk/sites/default/files/2024-05/SSAC%20Space%20Report%20-%20Annex%20E%20-%20Brief%20overview%20of%20Scottish%20industrial%20landscape_2.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1800436178459484252) 2024-06-11T07:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Does this mean that Starlink customers marginal ARPU is now closer to 500$/year than 1400$/ year as previously If so the Starlink revenue curvecwould reveal itself to be an S curve now reaching the phase of decreasing growth and profits. Rut Roh. Starlink Mini now available in Colombia. Equipment = $192 US Monthly Service = $36 https://t.co/pe8RKeImJR Rut Roh. Starlink Mini now available in Colombia. Equipment = $192 US Monthly Service = $36 https://t.co/pe8RKeImJR" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1804437508685525063) 2024-06-22T08:53Z [----] followers, 13.1K engagements "ISRO chairman comes to the same conclusions as I do: there is no visible growth in the launch demand beyond Starlink. https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1754889943854305654 The satellite launch market the world over is grim Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) chairman S Somanath has said while highlighting that there are rockets available and are waiting for demand. https://t.co/nxVVWpqmrG https://t.co/k0GktLYbkf https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1754889943854305654 The satellite launch market the world over is grim Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) chairman S Somanath has said" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1806257189528465448) 2024-06-27T09:24Z [----] followers, 20.4K engagements "@Orbital_Perigee Show the data supporting that statement please" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1806297588225688001) 2024-06-27T12:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@sherkhantx Indeed everybody knows how good the private space sector has been at predicting demand growth and cost reduction (courtesy of VirginOrbit Momentus and NSR)" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1806665050318676047) 2024-06-28T12:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@AndrewParsonson this is not an orbital launch but rather a sounding rocket right" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1809600928619626610) 2024-07-06T14:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@SohoNehel @ashleevance Lack of distance and excessive fanboy attitude from the author. But I loved the quotes and the behind the scenes account of the stories told" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1810938489577316832) 2024-07-10T07:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Of course when considering China we can all but notice how it is now aiming to be the most important global space power on the basis of government funded programs. And this is not even considering human flights but only focusing on civil and military satellite applications. 4/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1814330124545728837) 2024-07-19T16:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "I seem to be repeating myself on this specific subject but I keep seeing analysts underplaying China and ignoring the push in the military space domain just because Starlink and Human spaceflight tend to hide these trends. So I believe this was a useful reminder. 5/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1814330127997604154) 2024-07-19T16:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Expect these guys to start tapping intro private equity and VC money again wonder if there are any gullible investors left to take the plunge. Astra is now a private company. Adam and I could not be more grateful for our team and the customers shareholders and community that have supported us on this journey. We will now focus all of our attention on a successful launch of Rocket [--] delivering satellite engines to https://t.co/2vTDF5MbUe Astra is now a private company. Adam and I could not be more grateful for our team and the customers shareholders and community that have supported us on this" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1814624210464948321) 2024-07-20T11:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@TimFernholz @payloadspace If your revenues never cover your costs you are not creating value. Whatever the reason you are doing it wrong. Everybody has a right to anticipate this will change. But so far this creed has no substance to build upon" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1814732842099778005) 2024-07-20T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@spacecapital issued their updated Quarterly investment report. This is a somewhat useful source for tracking space investment even if they keep including in their report a lot of completely irrelevant stuff. TL/DR: Space investment is not 291B$ 1/ https://spacecapital.docsend.com/view/xtych3cu6jgbuzn9 https://spacecapital.docsend.com/view/xtych3cu6jgbuzn9" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1816506586954698923) 2024-07-25T16:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The section of the report titled 'infrastructure' is really about space business. I recommend that you ignore the funding labelled 'other' whose value is very much an estimate/invention but for the rest you can get some interesting trends in VC and PE funding for space. 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1816506590180356496) 2024-07-25T16:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "But after that and if you're interested in space businesses I recommend you stop reading. The sections on 'distribution' and 'applications' include the broadest and mostly incoherent set of businesses whose relationship with the space sector is very very very thin. 3/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1816506596471509331) 2024-07-25T16:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Let me give some examples here. The biggest funding round in the document is for Scale AI a company providing data labelling and verification services using extremely cheap labour (modern slavery some would say). Their link with the space sector is nonexistent. 4/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1816506598858129692) 2024-07-25T16:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "You will also find there the usual list of companies that use GNSS signals to support their operations. Like Waabi dott Uber etc. The presence of an AI based insurance company (Honeycomb) is also a surprise. All these companies are included in the 'satellite' segment 🤦. 5/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1816506601488203850) 2024-07-25T16:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "To be clear the funds raised by non-space segments of the assessment represent 74% of the 291B$ stated figure. This is big enough to let me raise an eyebrow (or two) considering that they label all this nonsense 'investment in the space economy'. 6/end" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1816506604105216496) 2024-07-25T16:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "And for aded context here @PLD_Space 84M$ figure here includes some 40M in debt financing provided under Spain's PERTE. AFAIK they didn't raise that much in equity in Q2 2024" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1816507550088462633) 2024-07-25T16:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "If your reference for space industry is the inept space economy figure there is no surprise that it doesnt correlate with other economic indicators. But wait maybe it correlates to smartphone markets Because thats the main component of that figure. Study finds space industry growth uncorrelated to larger markets https://t.co/dL6UwsSrcv https://t.co/MXGyWw6HnQ Study finds space industry growth uncorrelated to larger markets https://t.co/dL6UwsSrcv https://t.co/MXGyWw6HnQ" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1818981297596907727) 2024-08-01T12:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Scientists and Noahs Ark im the same headline. Fishy as hell. SCIENTISTS PROPOSE NOAHS ARK ON THE MOON With thousands of species at risk of extinction scientists have proposed a lunar vault filled with preserved samples of Earths most endangered creatures. The international team of experts warned that climate change and habitat loss https://t.co/UH33Gpb7MB SCIENTISTS PROPOSE NOAHS ARK ON THE MOON With thousands of species at risk of extinction scientists have proposed a lunar vault filled with preserved samples of Earths most endangered creatures. The international team of experts warned that" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1818985926812426472) 2024-08-01T12:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@fikocian I was curious about the hosts. And found that now they also have a fund Wonder how neutral they can be. https://www.geekwire.com/2024/ben-gilbert-and-david-rosenthal-founders-of-podcast-acquired-are-raising-an-investment-fund/ https://www.geekwire.com/2024/ben-gilbert-and-david-rosenthal-founders-of-podcast-acquired-are-raising-an-investment-fund/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1818991449687376138) 2024-08-01T12:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@milan_tomicc Elon Musk thinks this is "good idea"" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1819019376235782262) 2024-08-01T14:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@CommanderMLA @SciGuySpace These companies that are free from the constraints of a government agency are still 100% relying on gvt money for the Artemis programme" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1820490457278980443) 2024-08-05T16:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A good briefing on LEO constellations from the 90s to Starlink. Still unsure about the magic sauce behind the very low Starlink capex which would be the sole reason for it to not go bankrupt. https://caseclosed.substack.com/p/starlink-is-this-time-different There have been [--] serious LEO satcom attempts: Iridium ORBCOMM Teledesic Globalstar OneWeb Starlink Only Starlink hasnt failed at first In my newsletter post tomorrow we will examine if this time is truly different for Starlink Sign up via the link in my bio to read 🛰 https://t.co/325HQNavwl" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1822951787151696209) 2024-08-12T11:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "mystery broadband constellation customer Who could it be .@MDA_space: H1 rev/EBITDA/backlog way up; leverage down; to be free-cash-flow positive this year; mystery broadband constellation customer raises its commitment to $200M for software-defined sats; 90% of @Telesat Lightspeed suppliers now under contract.https://t.co/9A3DBKi9Xx https://t.co/PpYkzeFLBp .@MDA_space: H1 rev/EBITDA/backlog way up; leverage down; to be free-cash-flow positive this year; mystery broadband constellation customer raises its commitment to $200M for software-defined sats; 90% of @Telesat Lightspeed suppliers now" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1823047133513331109) 2024-08-12T17:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "While many new space palyers dont even have the money for proof of concept almost none have financial prospects to scale up and deploy a full constellation. $ASTS is no different than the others. 1/ @realmemes6 @kingtutcap $300m is a drop in the bucket. It doesnt solve any problems. They need $1-2B to build the constellation. Put another way: There are two steps: proof of concept and scale. They have enough money for proof of concept (like [--] attempts) and $300m doesnt really help with scale. @realmemes6 @kingtutcap $300m is a drop in the bucket. It doesnt solve any problems. They need $1-2B" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1824730490135343483) 2024-08-17T08:50Z [----] followers, 27.9K engagements "Seeing that investors are still buying at this price is indicative of some form of collective delusion how do they expect ASTS to generate more than a few million $ in revenue with just [--] sats (assuming they even get there) What exactly is the prospect for profit 2/end" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1824730492547006519) 2024-08-17T08:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "TL/DR: Trump space agenda must accelerate Artemis continue the focus on commercial growth and save the taxpayers money. Starship is the key. Space Force shall protect "US interests" on the Moon. #speechless Make Space Great Again https://t.co/eR8t4bUaNG https://t.co/Oz52COSD6b Make Space Great Again https://t.co/eR8t4bUaNG https://t.co/Oz52COSD6b" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1824732917739741569) 2024-08-17T09:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@0054_ams Starlink had 5B$ of funding secured" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1824740366806872563) 2024-08-17T09:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@0054_ams There are many sources. https://tracxn.com/d/companies/spacex/__UIpPfXSDe2O53VUbJNlNoPlcSwZr-1f_r0ie4BjsSaw/funding-and-investors https://tracxn.com/d/companies/spacex/__UIpPfXSDe2O53VUbJNlNoPlcSwZr-1f_r0ie4BjsSaw/funding-and-investors" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1824762274524872753) 2024-08-17T10:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@0054_ams Starlink was announced already in [----] and started deploying fast after [----]. SpaceX raised 68B$ in the period. Plus it had 1-2B$/yr revenues from its Falcon/Dragon business. I don't think you can compare this with ASTS current cash strapped position" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1824788474085404725) 2024-08-17T12:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements ""In its own statement Intuitive Machines said that mass on the lander is expected to be available for commercial payloads in addition to the NASA payloads but did not announce any customers beyond NASA." NASA selects Intuitive Machines for south pole lunar lander mission https://t.co/7J6A5Jl3nn https://t.co/9TCEvECpV1 NASA selects Intuitive Machines for south pole lunar lander mission https://t.co/7J6A5Jl3nn https://t.co/9TCEvECpV1" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1829415689565696290) 2024-08-30T07:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@astro_treks Actually it seems that commercial customers are not rushing to take advantage of CLPS opportunities. For the time being Intuitive is covering with its own funds the costs not covered by NASA I think" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1829510804691144949) 2024-08-30T13:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The sad fate of many Space SPACs along with the struggle to break even. Earth Observation seems to be a tougher case than originally anticipated. News: @BlackSky_Inc Announces 1-for-8 Reverse Stock Split Effective September 6th $BKSY https://t.co/ZV7ZwpayOp News: @BlackSky_Inc Announces 1-for-8 Reverse Stock Split Effective September 6th $BKSY https://t.co/ZV7ZwpayOp" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1831593250018201745) 2024-09-05T07:20Z [----] followers, 24.7K engagements "@joe_mckirdy Yes but very different sensors and resolution between the two. So can't really compare them. https://www.eoportal.org/satellite-missions/planet https://www.eoportal.org/satellite-missions/blacksky-constellation https://www.eoportal.org/satellite-missions/planet https://www.eoportal.org/satellite-missions/blacksky-constellation" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1831668804192960725) 2024-09-05T12:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@SpaceInvestor_ @planet The resilience of $PL shareholders is remarkable (Accumulated deficit 1B$). But it is worrying to see that there is still no profit in sight despite excellent customer retention and revenue growth. https://investors.planet.com/news/news-details/2024/Planet-Reports-Financial-Results-for-Second-Quarter-of-Fiscal-Year-2025/default.aspx https://investors.planet.com/news/news-details/2024/Planet-Reports-Financial-Results-for-Second-Quarter-of-Fiscal-Year-2025/default.aspx" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1831986248589644250) 2024-09-06T09:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This formulation seems to imply that SpaceX at least cofunds the mission. Or else they found the perfect formula with wealthy customers with unique motivations paying to derisk technologies owned by SpaceX. SpaceX was founded to make life multiplanetary. Missions like Polaris Dawn help advance the development of the technologies necessary to enable a more exciting future https://t.co/VeNfpwmf9I SpaceX was founded to make life multiplanetary. Missions like Polaris Dawn help advance the development of the technologies necessary to enable a more exciting future https://t.co/VeNfpwmf9I" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1833605919290364381) 2024-09-10T20:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@TMFAssociates What was the original price of the Roam plan in question" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1833806194391007468) 2024-09-11T09:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Do we notice stiffness in the suit What's with the arm position Commander @rookisaacman has egressed Dragon and is going through the first of three suit mobility tests that will test overall hand body control vertical movement with Skywalker and foot restraint https://t.co/XATJQhLuIZ Commander @rookisaacman has egressed Dragon and is going through the first of three suit mobility tests that will test overall hand body control vertical movement with Skywalker and foot restraint https://t.co/XATJQhLuIZ" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1834275508101484689) 2024-09-12T16:58Z [----] followers, 23.4K engagements "So many readers offended by this question. Amazing. Here is the video of Apollo [--] EVA (1972) for comparison notice how arms legs and fingers bend with relative ease. 1/ https://www.youtube.com/watchv=5A0OxDgLZ_4 Do we notice stiffness in the suit What's with the arm position https://www.youtube.com/watchv=5A0OxDgLZ_4 Do we notice stiffness in the suit What's with the arm position" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1834509887524556952) 2024-09-13T08:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "When comparing with Ed White's EVA in [----] you see how the suits of Apollo have improved on the Gemini ones. You can see Ed waving and moving his arms but otherwise not moving much similar to the Polaris-Dawn achievement. 2/ https://www.youtube.com/watchv=NQII-O6Nn2U https://www.youtube.com/watchv=NQII-O6Nn2U" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1834509890481463803) 2024-09-13T08:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Alexei Leonov's EVA (in 1965) similarly shows relatively limited arm range movement like Polaris-Dawn. All this was in in [----] and was dramatically improved in just a few years. 3/ https://www.youtube.com/watchv=uAPBRvd8OTY https://www.youtube.com/watchv=uAPBRvd8OTY" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1834509893102969060) 2024-09-13T08:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Looking at Polaris-Dawn EVA I was surprised by the stiffness (that sent me back to these images of the 60s) particularly noticeable when they enter/exit Dragon. And I hope that a respected journalist raises this question at the press conference. 4/ https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1834276061489590649 https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1834276061489590649" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1834509895472734678) 2024-09-13T08:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "This may boost some stocks but has no impact on market fundamentals. This [----] rate cut is so bullish for growth space stocks $RKLB $RDW $LUNR $MDA 🚀 This [----] rate cut is so bullish for growth space stocks $RKLB $RDW $LUNR $MDA 🚀" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1836515878277673014) 2024-09-18T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A good analysis of @planet business even if I don't buy the 'macro' trends that the company touts to explain commercial revenue decline. I think that the main explanation is the low perceived value of EO data for commercial customers leading to price adjustments. A few years ago Planet Labs touted a commercial EO market on the verge of an inflection point forecasting commercial revenue would grow to 68% of total sales by the end of next year. Instead the opposite has happened The full story: https://t.co/2BPReZKoNx https://t.co/sxyeJX4QF6 A few years ago Planet Labs touted a commercial EO" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1837087826606727530) 2024-09-20T11:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "POV: you just landed on Mars and there's no ground support crew to ease you out of your spacecraft. Finally the last member of the crew @Roscosmos cosmonaut Nikolai Chub egresses the spacecraft. Same as Oleg he spent [---] days uninterrupted in space during his last mission at the International @Space_Station. #SoyuzMS25 https://t.co/80u0sKXr9Y Finally the last member of the crew @Roscosmos cosmonaut Nikolai Chub egresses the spacecraft. Same as Oleg he spent [---] days uninterrupted in space during his last mission at the International @Space_Station. #SoyuzMS25 https://t.co/80u0sKXr9Y" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1838221877774319705) 2024-09-23T14:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "So @MorganStanley downgrades $SPCE from its 35$ target to 5$. But why they set this 35$ target in the first place is a complete mystery to me. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-sees-more-downside-143244107.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-sees-more-downside-143244107.html" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1838535139497828683) 2024-09-24T11:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Not familiar with private equity Heres a well rounded 30mn crash course. with @PatrickEBoyle https://m.youtube.com/watchv=NUdScOXzWsg https://m.youtube.com/watchv=NUdScOXzWsg" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1840324303901933845) 2024-09-29T09:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The battle for satellite to phone services is intense and the battleground is regulatory. Some like to believe this is a 30B$ market opportunity. NEW A group of European wireless network operators are threatening legal action if American regulators approve SpaceX's efforts to provide phone-to-satellite connections to T-Mobile customers. https://t.co/cUKhva6t6L NEW A group of European wireless network operators are threatening legal action if American regulators approve SpaceX's efforts to provide phone-to-satellite connections to T-Mobile customers. https://t.co/cUKhva6t6L" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1842508597877510230) 2024-10-05T10:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@PLD_Space Ambitious roadmap here: first tests in [----] first launch with Miura-5 in [----] and first orbital launch in [----] according to this press report. https://www.elespanol.com/omicrono/defensa-y-espacio/20241007/espanola-pld-quiere-spacex-europea-presenta-nuevos-cohetes-nave-espacial-ir-luna/891661080_0.html https://www.elespanol.com/omicrono/defensa-y-espacio/20241007/espanola-pld-quiere-spacex-europea-presenta-nuevos-cohetes-nave-espacial-ir-luna/891661080_0.html" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1843284584877973830) 2024-10-07T13:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "OFCOM launched a consultation on D2D service to provide guidance for UK authorities on the regulatory way forward. The background document gives a lot of context on D2D. The very first question of the consultation relates to the market opportunity. 1/ https://www.ofcom.org.uk/siteassets/resources/documents/consultations/category-2-6-weeks/call-for-input-improving-mobile-connectivity-from-the-sky-and-space/main-documents/call-for-input-improving-mobile-connectivity-from-the-sky-and-space.pdfv=370909" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1843573851558723730) 2024-10-08T08:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "There are [--] answers so far to the consultation so I checked them out anxious to discover more about the 'market opportunity'. Worth noting that AST and SpaceX have not contributed to the consultation. 2/ https://www.ofcom.org.uk/spectrum/space-and-satellites/improving-mobile-connectivity-from-the-sky-and-space/s=03 https://www.ofcom.org.uk/spectrum/space-and-satellites/improving-mobile-connectivity-from-the-sky-and-space/s=03" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1843573854721155359) 2024-10-08T08:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Not sure I get this right: the FCC authorises an emergency service outside the normal regulatory path but only T-Mobile customers can take full advantage of it We turned on satellite service to cell phones in Florida in preparation for Hurricane #Milton hitting soon. People with @TMobile can now text in Florida and all phones and carriers will receive emergency alerts. Huge thank you to the @FCC who moved extremely quickly on two We turned on satellite service to cell phones in Florida in preparation for Hurricane #Milton hitting soon. People with @TMobile can now text in Florida and all" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1843934409784963178) 2024-10-09T08:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@richard_e_cole A good one but hardly applied by space enthusiasts out there" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1844328510997004763) 2024-10-10T10:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "But with an average [--] tons per launch (disregarding T1) is it reasonable to assume that SpaceX made more than 25M$ on each Transporter launch Frankly I don't think so. And even so that would mean an average price per kg for the customer of 10k$. Not cheap overall. 5/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1844411612935094570) 2024-10-10T16:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Now let's have a look at the customer base. In this chart every color represent a different customer. The Transporter missions have had about [---] different customers only [--] of which are returning customers. The big dark green bar of T-1 is Starlink BTW. 6/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1844411615539757495) 2024-10-10T16:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "US customers are the majority with 55% of the mass launched but this only true when SpaceX payloads are included. Once they are removed non US customers represent 52% of the mass launched. They are mostly European. 9/end" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1844411626134569151) 2024-10-10T16:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@fchopard71 They may 😅 But since we don't know the actual yield of Transporter missions due to the complex pricing systems and the many actors involved nor the actual cost of Falcon launch I wouldn't dare being affirmative. https://spacenews.com/spacex-and-the-categorical-imperative-to-achieve-low-launch-cost/ https://spacenews.com/spacex-and-the-categorical-imperative-to-achieve-low-launch-cost/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1844433624210472998) 2024-10-10T17:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Starbase operations cost SpaceX 4M$/day according to documents filed for lawsuit. This is consistent with previously heard figure of 1-2B$/year. https://wccftech.com/spacex-says-it-will-lose-4-million-per-day-if-starship-launches-are-suspended-by-court/amp/ https://wccftech.com/spacex-says-it-will-lose-4-million-per-day-if-starship-launches-are-suspended-by-court/amp/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1845203925470994598) 2024-10-12T20:44Z [----] followers, 11.7K engagements "Well that was quite a show. Now we need to deploy some payload see how much mass Starship can actually deliver to orbit" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1845458272209244445) 2024-10-13T13:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@vishalreddy0499 @NedhirSahli The SpaceX rideshare pricing system is a mix of minimum purchase and price/kg. Launch aggregators act as intermediaries and probably allow cubesats to spread the minimum purchase" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1845756243534627202) 2024-10-14T09:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "So what is the limit to grow your launch business Definitely "the market" (or rather the demand) says Adam Spice @RocketLab CFO. The demand is not growing and Spice even calls it a "nascent" market. https://youtu.be/Rc6Lq5MKLfIt=295 https://youtu.be/Rc6Lq5MKLfIt=295" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1846593510633308184) 2024-10-16T16:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "After @Axiom_Space announced collaboration with designer @ph_starck for its space station in [----] they now collaborate with fashion brand @Prada for their space suits. 1/ https://www.axiomspace.com/release/prada-axiom-suit https://www.axiomspace.com/news/axiom-space-and-philippe-starck-to-create-commercial-space-station-at-the-iss https://www.axiomspace.com/release/prada-axiom-suit https://www.axiomspace.com/news/axiom-space-and-philippe-starck-to-create-commercial-space-station-at-the-iss" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1847313978688704721) 2024-10-18T16:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Megaconstellati @Novaspace_ @Starlink How are we expected to interpret the strange blurb about Starlink "development cost for gen [--] &2 amounting to 3B$ (at 2:11) This figure makes no sense to me. Starlink total capex by end [----] is probably more than 10B IMO. And the capacity growth forecast Not convinced" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1847572527775633849) 2024-10-19T09:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The impact of launch activity on the atmosphere is still insufficiently characterised. @latestinspace On November [--] [----] SpaceXs Starship rocket exploded at high altitude creating a temporary hole in Earths ionospherea region filled with charged particles. The explosions shockwaves displaced these particles leading to a localized reduction in ionization. This @latestinspace On November [--] [----] SpaceXs Starship rocket exploded at high altitude creating a temporary hole in Earths ionospherea region filled with charged particles. The explosions shockwaves displaced these particles leading to a" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1853898092116148226) 2024-11-05T20:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@HardwireMedia Not really. This article links a few studies showing that both launch and satellite atmospheric reentry have huge impacts even at the current relatively low frequency. The more research advances the less the space sector can ignore its impact. https://www.space.com/rocket-launches-satellite-reentries-air-pollution-concerns https://www.space.com/rocket-launches-satellite-reentries-air-pollution-concerns" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1853903500830196137) 2024-11-05T20:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@thekookreport Ppl often get this wrong but F9 only has 18t LEO capacity (reusable) an FH only has about 25t capacity due to upper stage mechanical and volume limits. FH is a a high energy launcher for GEO missions rather than a heavy launcher for LEO" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1855908731566845954) 2024-11-11T09:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "there are actually useful cases but not enough (and not solvent enough) to sustain the multi billion level investment to make them viable. So the useful case becomes a rare positive externality or a byproduct of an otherwise incredibly wasteful system. 1/ Chris Quilty talks about the capabilities of DTD "Marching society forward with the ability to instagram anywhere but obviously there's a lot of other more useful cases." Chris Quilty talks about the capabilities of DTD "Marching society forward with the ability to instagram anywhere but obviously there's a lot of other more useful cases."" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1856064265582719134) 2024-11-11T19:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The negative externalities of megaconstellations the massive launch needs and the tons of satellites forced back into the atmosphere in particular are absolutely huge and probably not worth the actual social added value of the service provided. 2/end" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1856064269046960182) 2024-11-11T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Assuming a 67M$ price this 35t to GEO launch in reusable mode cost the customer close to 20k$/kg. Quite a high price but without competition 🚀 Yesterday SpaceX succesfully launched Koreasat 6A from SLC-40. 🛰 The satellite will replace the existing Koreasat [--] and provide South Korea with both Fixed Satellite Service (FSS) and Broadcast Satellite Service (BSS) capabilities. Find out more: https://t.co/BLM0NN0i0I 🚀 Yesterday SpaceX succesfully launched Koreasat 6A from SLC-40. 🛰 The satellite will replace the existing Koreasat [--] and provide South Korea with both Fixed Satellite Service (FSS)" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1856664756154728493) 2024-11-13T11:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Gayettix Historically the price/kg with A5 to GEO was between [--] and 19k$ for commercial customers" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1856716882583191774) 2024-11-13T15:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "And while I'm at it I share these two tables from our Space Global Context report soon to be published. These are total mass launched and average (actual) price/kg to launch by launcher class. The smaller the launcher the higher the price/kg in case you didn't know" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1856723732720464020) 2024-11-13T15:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@trengriffin Indeed but there seems to be a sweet spot with current launchers whereas very large launchers grow in complexity and costs and are more expensive. Moreover since they are less frequently used they are less prone to creating economies of scale" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1856971589473988613) 2024-11-14T08:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@TMFAssociates @KevinLMak I second that. Launch cost alone for [--] sats (3t each) is no less than 800M$. Ive always found ASTS statements on infrastructure costs to be disturbingly low" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1857326874063482881) 2024-11-15T07:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@AuerSusan This doesn't add up well. [--] BBs on a falcon [--] is at least 67M$ for launch alone. Are we assuming that each BB1 satellite cost only 3M$ or so Is this credible" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1857360225256267830) 2024-11-15T09:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "SpaceX is the endless startup. Never profitable in its own always dependent on more capital to make ends meet. JUST IN: SPACEX TO LAUNCH TENDER OFFER IN DECEMBER VALUING COMPANY AT OVER $250 BILLION https://t.co/8iCZnDDMxS JUST IN: SPACEX TO LAUNCH TENDER OFFER IN DECEMBER VALUING COMPANY AT OVER $250 BILLION https://t.co/8iCZnDDMxS" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1857724282123493747) 2024-11-16T09:55Z [----] followers, 27.3K engagements "A few words about this. 1) if Starlink was as profitable as @QuiltySpace thinks why would Shotwell be so prudent with her statements on this subject Starlink financials are very sensitive to very small variations in assumptions including actual lifetime and customer growth. Shotwell predicts Starship to be most valuable part of SpaceX https://t.co/EOtCEA48YO https://t.co/K4jdWM6Tmn Shotwell predicts Starship to be most valuable part of SpaceX https://t.co/EOtCEA48YO https://t.co/K4jdWM6Tmn" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1857731820122501277) 2024-11-16T10:25Z [----] followers, 20.2K engagements "2) Starship is believed to change the game in space aplications only because of its low price but we know that the only way for this to (maybe) happen is to forfeit all the profit to the customers and hope they can come up with a cheap satellite system to build their business" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1857731822395732257) 2024-11-16T10:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "3) The condition for Starship to be cheap is to achieve very high cadence mostly provided by Starlink demand. If SpaceX gives the same advantage to Starlink competitors it will lose the competitive advantage it has on them thus hampering Starlink customer uptake" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1857731825881215328) 2024-11-16T10:25Z [----] followers, 64.4K engagements "4) Ergo this is just talk to attract investors interest with novelty. With the previous capital raises the new thing was Starlink. The new new thing is now Starship. /end" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1857731829001851264) 2024-11-16T10:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DundeeSat @NickAstronomer I think that atmospheric impact of launch and satellite reentry is much more critical but Kessler is also a tisk in LEO" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1857735905781366837) 2024-11-16T10:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@Gayettix Indeed unless they commercialise that through a 3rd party. Still this is still very far away. I was more thinking about the satellite launch business and specifically the megaconstellation business" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1857833843148910928) 2024-11-16T17:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@aarontburnett I like to be called out of touch by someone who poses with a fake astronaut suit. It kinda reassures me" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1857840609844699612) 2024-11-16T17:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@PlumConsulting made an analysis of Starlink pricing per country in USD and in purchasing power parities (PPP). Interesting results. Thank you @LucasButhion for the link https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7264623869620088832/ https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7264623869620088832/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1858888754339213697) 2024-11-19T15:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@cpl43uk As for Starship I have no idea where are the reservoirs of demand for that beast of a launcher whatever the launch price may be unless the price point is so low that humongous projects such as Solar Power Satellites eventually gather some serious funding to take off" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1858900018469499076) 2024-11-19T15:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "A bit disappointed that IFT-6 did not attempt a mechazilla catch. We aren't the same. IFT-6 vs IFT-5 https://t.co/cw7iNi9VTb We aren't the same. IFT-6 vs IFT-5 https://t.co/cw7iNi9VTb" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1859234297762263541) 2024-11-20T13:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The business equivalent of fantasy sport. Latitude signs multi-launch contract with Atmos Space Cargo https://t.co/Y1BHSHfXQW https://t.co/ODaSW7PjcA Latitude signs multi-launch contract with Atmos Space Cargo https://t.co/Y1BHSHfXQW https://t.co/ODaSW7PjcA" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1859315836768411652) 2024-11-20T19:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Starbase water consumption puts strain on local resources. https://myrgv.com/local-news/2024/11/22/spacex-consumes-millions-of-gallons-of-brownsville-water-amid-scarcity/ https://myrgv.com/local-news/2024/11/22/spacex-consumes-millions-of-gallons-of-brownsville-water-amid-scarcity/" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1860282446618525854) 2024-11-23T11:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@CKalitin @spacecoastwest @deltaIV9250 @planet4589 This is even less of course. Especially since Electron's average payload performance sits just below 100kg per launch so far" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1860639650227855839) 2024-11-24T11:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BellikOzan @TheRTest @StormSilvawalk1 F9 is priced at (maybe) 67M$ per launch or 65k$/kg with transporter missions. Since it hardly flies full (except with Starlink where the average load is 17t) but averages 7t the actual price/kg is close to 10k$" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1860656560587899060) 2024-11-24T12:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@BellikOzan @Noname117S @TheRTest @StormSilvawalk1 Yes Starlink is out (nobody really knows what is the Starlink launch price) and Dragon too (all human flights are a separate analysis in our work)" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1860702898104971650) 2024-11-24T15:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BellikOzan @TheRTest @StormSilvawalk1 Well Starlink is not stimulating the launch market. It has stifled GEO operators and undercut small launchers. Regarding the what if forecasting I leave that to others. But I do invite them to look closely at actual price & market conditions for extrapolation" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1860705191781077457) 2024-11-24T15:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BellikOzan @TheRTest @StormSilvawalk1 And Electron pricing has nothing to do with any boom in smallsats. Electron is the most expensive launcher available today ($/kg)" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1860705910475104292) 2024-11-24T15:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BellikOzan @Noname117S @TheRTest @StormSilvawalk1 No if the focus of the analysis is the launch price context for non anchor customers" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1860706833318433008) 2024-11-24T15:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BellikOzan @TheRTest @StormSilvawalk1 Ok but you have moved the post. This was about launch price and my point is that F9 has not stimulated demand growth so far thanks to low pricing. And yes Kuiper has announced a major launch deal. Lets wait for it to happen before we start counting that in" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1860709205956518214) 2024-11-24T15:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@Tomas_Stellar @BellikOzan @TheRTest @StormSilvawalk1 There is a minimum buy at 50kg on Transporter/Bandwagon. This has an impact on average price/kg for customers with smaller payloads. Also creates a business case for launch aggregators but then you also pay their service on top resulting in higher $/kg. https://rideshare.spacex.com/searchorbitClassification=1&launchDate=2025-03-25&payloadMass=50 https://rideshare.spacex.com/searchorbitClassification=1&launchDate=2025-03-25&payloadMass=50" [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1861010899097538685) 2024-11-25T11:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Crazy to see that most believe that the RKLB stock is cheap at 27x sales considering that the company has yet to demonstrate it can make a profit after [--] years. Technical execution is a good thing but profit becomes a necessity though investors seem not to care. $RKLB In keeping with my thoughts that things are frothy i.e. most people still think the stock is "cheap" at 27x sales We can definitely get more frothy But the stock is priced for perfection A neutron delay or failure would cut the stock in half https://t.co/LLJL3EqZNw $RKLB In keeping with my thoughts that things are frothy i.e." [X Link](https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1861309738383716405) 2024-11-26T07:23Z [----] followers, 26.3K engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@LionnetPierre Pierre Lionnet
Pierre Lionnet posts on X about spacex, starlink, investment, elon musk the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [---------] #
- [--] Week [---------] +9,725%
- [--] Month [---------] +1,116%
- [--] Months [---------] +2,429%
- [--] Year [---------] +453%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Month [--] -66%
- [--] Months [---] +109%
- [--] Year [---] +5.80%
Followers: [-------] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.21%
- [--] Month [-----] +0.81%
- [--] Months [-----] +7.30%
- [--] Year [-----] +14%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance countries stocks technology brands celebrities social networks automotive brands cryptocurrencies currencies us election
Social topic influence spacex #307, starlink, investment, elon musk #1455, leo, ipo #95, money, business, starship, space
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @tmfassociates @starlink @bellikozan @megaconstellati @inemesitaffia @elonmusk @andrewparsonson @spacenewsinc @peterrhague @cpl43uk @sciguyspace @olegkutkov @nedhirsahli @peterjbeck @fikocian @thertest @stormsilvawalk1 @spacex @xfinancialx @jackkuhr
Top assets mentioned StarLink (STARL) StarShip (STARSHIP) Rocket Lab USA, Inc. Common Stock (RKLB) Morgan Stanley (MS) AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Class A Common Stock (ASTS) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Neutron (NTRN) Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) ORBIT (GRIFT)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"The space manufacturing industry is a net contributor to the European trade balance. New Eurospace research on space economics (with real & verifiable facts inside 😉) La conqute de l'espace profite la balance commerciale de l'Europe : https://t.co/wNp8wiew0M via @LesEchos La conqute de l'espace profite la balance commerciale de l'Europe : https://t.co/wNp8wiew0M via @LesEchos"
X Link 2021-06-01T07:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Always surprised to be surprised by @SpaceCapital quarterly. Today I discover a company called Moonspike raising 45M$ in Series C & one of the largest rounds of the quarter. It is obviously not this one: @moonspike but I can't find anything else. Any clues anyone :)"
X Link 2023-01-25T09:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I wish now to digress a little on some companies that are included starting with the ones that are in my opinion completely unrelated to space. For instance @Lilium is an electric plane business. Why is it in the "space" index 6/12"
X Link 2023-01-27T17:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Similarly @aerovironment "AeroVironment Inc. is an American defense contractor headquartered in Arlington Virginia that designs and manufactures unmanned aerial vehicles. " what is it doing in the HELIOS SPACE index It is not space and it is not even European. 7/12"
X Link 2023-01-27T17:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My estimate is that of the three ETFs only UFO has a good relavance to space (60%) It is followed by ARKX (30%) SPEAR ALPHA is a bit like HELIOS SPACE with less than 5% of its value being driven by space markets dynamics. 11/12 https://ark-funds.com/funds/arkx/ https://procureetfs.com/ufo/ https://ark-funds.com/funds/arkx/ https://procureetfs.com/ufo/"
X Link 2023-01-27T17:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Now that the Intuititve Machines $LUNR IPO is complete let me gather here some information on the de-SPAC process. Was it any good We have seen worse. But good . 1/ https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1622264436005244928 So we have a new space SPAC breeding. Last year I worked with a master student on a toolbox to analyse the SPAC thesis. Let's see how Intuitive Machines performs on our indicators. 👉This is NOT investment advice. 1/ https://t.co/reYz7XeBpF https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1622264436005244928 So we have a new space SPAC breeding. Last year I worked with a master student on a"
X Link 2023-02-15T17:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The redemption rate was not great. [--] million shares were redeemed: a vast majority of $IPAX shareholders chose a refund rather than convert their stock to $LUNR. This reduced the cash available to @Int_Machines by 280M$ (out of the 301M$ expected). 2/ https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filings/Form+8-KA+Intuitive+Machines%2C+Inc.+For%3A+Feb+13/21228287.html https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filings/Form+8-KA+Intuitive+Machines%2C+Inc.+For%3A+Feb+13/21228287.html"
X Link 2023-02-15T17:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@VardaSpace When [--] means [--]. "The $60 million agreement includes $15 million from Air Force and NASA customers $15 million from the AFWERX organization that sponsors the STRATFI program and $30 million in private funding from Vardas venture investors." https://spacenews.com/u-s-air-force-to-test-hardware-at-hypersonic-speeds-on-vardas-space-capsules/ https://spacenews.com/u-s-air-force-to-test-hardware-at-hypersonic-speeds-on-vardas-space-capsules/"
X Link 2023-06-14T08:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@peterrhague @cpl43uk [--] tons worth of satellites built and launched for 25M$ (or 1600$/kg) in total seems highly improbable to me. Anyone can speculate on SpaceX costs but some assumptions are less credible to me because they diverge too much from other known/verifiable facts"
X Link 2023-07-11T07:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@peterrhague @cpl43uk Do you have actual quotes on these costs Because i dont think i have seen anything else than vague statements"
X Link 2023-07-11T07:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@peterrhague @cpl43uk SpaceX is an industry like any other industry. They buy stuff rent stuff and pay salaries"
X Link 2023-07-11T08:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@SpacerFC @peterrhague @cpl43uk Consensus I dont any serious space analyst that shares this view"
X Link 2023-07-11T11:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@peterrhague @cpl43uk That's probably as close as we can get to an official statement that I could find (in 2020). Falcon [--] "Costs $28M to launch it thats with everything." So 25M$ with sats included seems really far fetched to me"
X Link 2023-07-11T17:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I thought I had seen it all. but no wackiness knows no boundaries obviously. 1/"
X Link 2023-07-30T23:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"According to this article the retiring David Limp did not make the smartest choices when it came to adding services and devices to the Amazon lineup. He was the man behind Kuiper"
X Link 2023-08-19T09:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@MatthewGill42 @Stefan__Powell Fact is that whatever bespoke solution you get for small satellite launch the price per kg is always very high. This kills most business cases"
X Link 2023-08-27T09:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@santoshDynamics I posted this already in the past. The US competition was lagging but [--] years ago you could fly commercial to LEO with Ariane Proton and Soyuz all below 10k$/kg"
X Link 2023-09-11T05:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Musk admitting Starship is a money pit Musk now [--] tells Isaacson that he could have made a lot of money had he not built SpaceXs biggest rocket the Starship. But I could not then have made life multiplanetary. $ElonQ Halfway through our conversation he took a video call from one of his Tesla factories which appeared to be on fire. Is it important he asked. The guy in the burning factory seemed unsure. Then dont bother me he snapped and hung up. https://t.co/7brH8xOAEc $ElonQ Halfway through our conversation he took a video call from one of his Tesla factories which appeared to be on fire. Is"
X Link 2023-09-17T10:38Z [----] followers, 11K engagements
"Your business model requires a reentry licence but you did not manage to secure one before launch @VardaSpace "The FAA says Varda launched its vehicle into space without a reentry license.""
X Link 2023-09-21T08:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Northrop was uncertain that the commercial market existed beyond guaranteed contracts to house NASA astronauts and this is likely what led to its decision to drop a bid. I share this view. 1/"
X Link 2023-10-03T21:44Z [----] followers, 42.3K engagements
"The deceptive belief in the lowering costs of space infrastructure fueling an exponential market growth has affected procurement policies and has created an economically unsustainable environment for investors and suppliers. 7/"
X Link 2023-10-03T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The simple fact that Jeff Bezos stated that he would co-fund with NASA the Blue Moon lander is bordering with corporate insanity. Can a company be managed as a very expensive hobby by its owner 8/"
X Link 2023-10-03T21:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A vibrant lunar economy will hinge on finding commercial customers for the lunar lander builders not just NASAIntuitive Machines has partnered with Columbia Sportswear to fly the clothier's trademark thermal-reflective liner on the Nova-C lander set for launch next month. 1/"
X Link 2023-10-04T06:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In case there are still some doubts about Amazon Kuiper having/consideroing OISL heres a job offering for just that. 1/"
X Link 2023-10-09T08:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Also interesting to scroll through the 200+ open positions at Kuiper esp. seeing how many positions are about building a B2G sales team targeting IC (intelligence community). Amazon may be realising that the market opportunity for residential broadband isnt that juicy /2"
X Link 2023-10-09T08:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A 'close race' for European spaceports - but is there even a prize to win The demand for small launch is very low volume fragmented mostly non European often non solvent and typically non recurring. 1/"
X Link 2023-10-09T10:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"See here the demand for Light (VEGA Dnepr Rockot CZ4 Antares PSLV Zhuque class) and Very Light launchers (CZ11 Electron Epsilon Kuaizhou LauncherOne Minotaur Pegasus XL class). At 15B$/year the demand for light launch was 10x the demand for very light launch. 2/"
X Link 2023-10-09T10:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The European demand for very light launchers (i.e. the ones that are brewing in European startups) was 29M$ in [--] years. The largest demand in the decade was in the USA with 710M$ followed by China with 224M$. So what's to win with this 'race' 3/end"
X Link 2023-10-09T10:31Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"Hello @JasonRainbow what is the source for the [---] workforce figure in this article - the most recent company filing for $GOMX state different numbers. https://gomspace.com/UserFiles/Q2_online_version.pdf https://spacenews.com/major-gomspace-satellite-customer-withholding-payments/ https://gomspace.com/UserFiles/Q2_online_version.pdf https://spacenews.com/major-gomspace-satellite-customer-withholding-payments/"
X Link 2023-10-17T10:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Great lobbying by SpaceX via @arstechnica The discussion with Ars was convened by SpaceX in advance of a hearing on Wednesday before the US Subcommittee on Space and Science. 1/"
X Link 2023-10-17T18:54Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"When SpaceX launches a Starlink mission these days theyre using every kilo of launch capacity they possibly can on Falcon [--]. Everybody else is leaving a lot on the table"
X Link 2023-10-26T11:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@RULO999 The ones that target defense and sovereignty programmes and stay away from aspirational dreams of a space fairing civilisation. Also careful recourse to PPP and FFP contracting with good cost control and transparent financial reporting. Sensible executives would be a plus"
X Link 2023-11-04T13:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@RULO999 I dont think Starlink is a viable long term business case. Same with Starship. Falcon is probably a good business and likely the sole profitable line in SpaceX. But not profitable enough to sustain the rest though"
X Link 2023-11-04T17:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@starlinkinsider Starlink Transforming the maritime industry Isnt that a tad exaggerating Transforming the maritime connectivity market seems more accurate"
X Link 2023-11-11T17:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@littlebluena @BellikOzan @ChrispyLispy @Robotbeat @BEA_News these trends are actually quite flat in value. The only growth segment in space is Starlink and according to Musk these satellites are so cheap to build and launch that the overall infrastructure market is not growing despite the incredible volume of activity they generate"
X Link 2023-11-29T09:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Anton81191831 @TMFAssociates @13ericralph31 Interesting figure are these 500M$ a guess or is there any documented reference behind them According to the WSJ leaked financial data SpaceX revenues were 46B in [----]. To make this total match with revenues from launch Dragon and Starlink we are short of 800M"
X Link 2023-12-03T10:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@ChenrySpace Well. 20k satellites by [----] is still very optimistic IMHO. Esp. considering that Starlinks are getting larger and thus deployment rate goes down (until/if Starship takes over). Wonder what total mass projections you are making"
X Link 2023-12-06T11:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Hi Space Twitter I am a tad confused with this news "Huawei has launched two pairs of Ka-band prototype satellites (on August 21st and November 19th)". I can't find these satellites (nor the launches) anywhere. Help appreciated"
X Link 2023-12-12T16:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ChinaSpaceGuy @iridiumsat Thanks a lot. My understanding is that Galaxy Space built the test satellites (not Huawei) and we had them in our database. Still unclear to me is whether 1) Huawei was the customer and 2) if these satellites are precursors to the Guowang constellation or something else"
X Link 2023-12-13T10:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Deutsche Telekom is charging [----] euros ($5.50) per month for up to [--] messages (180 Characters max) using the satellite service. Let's see how much Starlink will charge. But I hardly see this ever becoming a massive revenue source. The six @Starlink satellites on this mission with Direct to Cell capability will further global connectivity and help to eliminate dead zones https://t.co/FgiJ7LOYdK https://t.co/zFy7SrpsYs The six @Starlink satellites on this mission with Direct to Cell capability will further global connectivity and help to eliminate dead zones https://t.co/FgiJ7LOYdK"
X Link 2024-01-03T08:30Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements
"Simply put the Bryce "Global space economy" is not a good indicator for the space infrastructure business. Thence any forecast extrapolating on it (e.g. Morgan Stanley shown here) is largely irrelevant to the space infrastructure industry (and does not constitute its TAM). @adriannorris Just for context the "Space economy" data by Bryce shows 1) there was no growth in the space infrastructure market (satellite + launch) in the past decades 2) the markets for "services" and " ground equipment" are uncorrelated to the space infrastructure. https://t.co/oBQcvEIndm @adriannorris Just for context"
X Link 2024-01-11T19:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"One more comment on this. When assessing solar power satellite projects if the analysis does not include EROEI it misses at least half the point. After noting that "space transportation costs are the single most impactful cost barrier" NASA study on solar power satellites (SPS) starts with the wrong cost assumptions and thence brings in the wrong conclusions on LCOE from SPS. https://t.co/ZvUHD3Uf9L 1/ https://t.co/mvo7ymjCmx After noting that "space transportation costs are the single most impactful cost barrier" NASA study on solar power satellites (SPS) starts with the wrong cost"
X Link 2024-01-12T14:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I was also very surprised when I heard the Tbps reference. Hopefully this will be clarified @elonmusk mentions that the #Starlink v2-mini satellites have [---] Tbps capacity compared to [--] Tbps for the previous generation but I'm guessing he misspoke and meant Gbps Because Starlink v1.0 satellites each had a capacity of [--] Gb/s so jumping to [---] Tbps seems unlikely. @elonmusk mentions that the #Starlink v2-mini satellites have [---] Tbps capacity compared to [--] Tbps for the previous generation but I'm guessing he misspoke and meant Gbps Because Starlink v1.0 satellites each had a capacity of 20"
X Link 2024-01-13T14:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Former NASA administrator Mike Griffin states that "commercial space" is nothing but a "catchphrase" and that NASA is the "only significant customer for human missions to the Moon". So much for the Lunar Economy myth. An interesting aspect of today's House hearing on Artemis was that one witness former administrator Mike Griffin said Artemis is the wrong way to return humans to the Moon and in his prepared testimony offered details on an alternative. No one asked him any questions on it. An interesting aspect of today's House hearing on Artemis was that one witness former administrator Mike"
X Link 2024-01-18T15:07Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"responsive launch is unlikely to be more than a niche amidst the larger small satellite launch market. says US Space Force vice Chief. Guetlein calls for a change in culture in responsive space https://t.co/2VcR7gNVkL https://t.co/PGh0QIyDWV Guetlein calls for a change in culture in responsive space https://t.co/2VcR7gNVkL https://t.co/PGh0QIyDWV"
X Link 2024-01-20T22:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I do support these statements of course. The new space startup environment is currently unsustainable. .@ASDEurospace to @defis_eu @EIF_EU @esa: We've created more NewSpace startups than the market can support; established co's are showing 'unprecedented' low profitability. #EuropeanSpaceConf. https://t.co/mM4xFkLxvR https://t.co/cQSP4Dnlpt .@ASDEurospace to @defis_eu @EIF_EU @esa: We've created more NewSpace startups than the market can support; established co's are showing 'unprecedented' low profitability. #EuropeanSpaceConf. https://t.co/mM4xFkLxvR https://t.co/cQSP4Dnlpt"
X Link 2024-01-24T08:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Starlink ARPU in Europe is about 600/yr or half the US value. @starlinkinsider Another Starlink residential price drop in Europe. Roam prices also dropped but I don't have a table. https://t.co/pMsreF8yo7 @starlinkinsider Another Starlink residential price drop in Europe. Roam prices also dropped but I don't have a table. https://t.co/pMsreF8yo7"
X Link 2024-01-25T22:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@starlinkinsider This data is also telling that the customer base for satellite internet access is not so large. Starlink growth will probably slow down after it has dried out the GEO segment customers"
X Link 2024-01-25T22:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"the full amount be repaid which in this instance will be made through the payment of royalties over the first [--] years of the commercial operation of Miura [--]. A 4M/year repayment will make it very hard to close the business case. And no interest rate on the loan .@PLD_Space has been awarded a [----] million loan from the Spanish Government to complete the development of Miura [--]. https://t.co/KE14t8IDbU .@PLD_Space has been awarded a [----] million loan from the Spanish Government to complete the development of Miura [--]. https://t.co/KE14t8IDbU"
X Link 2024-01-27T10:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"These charts are complete nonsense of course. Theyre akin to comparing formula one costs with production cars. Moreover the Falcon costs provided are aspirational not real customer prices. It is [--] times cheaper to get to orbit than when I first flew: $100 ticket becomes $4 and dropping. Imagine if that happened in air sea rail or road transport. Report @Deloitte: https://t.co/BicmkCOjXQ https://t.co/6G1thYKbVX It is [--] times cheaper to get to orbit than when I first flew: $100 ticket becomes $4 and dropping. Imagine if that happened in air sea rail or road transport. Report @Deloitte:"
X Link 2024-01-28T09:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DutchSatellites @Cmdr_Hadfield When you are buying the launch the price is your cost. And moreover since SpaceX doesnt publish financial information the notion of cost is as reliable as hearsay"
X Link 2024-01-28T16:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Therefore I keep questioning the relevance of this figure for the space industry (i.e. the infrastructure suppliers). Whatever you may think about that forecast it is not TAM for the space industry. 4/end (and here is the link to the Bloomberg feature)"
X Link 2024-01-30T12:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@dan_tmt Of these constellations only a couple have the funds to proceed. This is what that chart was about. I explain it later in my talk. The sector is blatantly under capitalized to live up to its expectations"
X Link 2024-02-01T09:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@dan_tmt The full talk is still available here"
X Link 2024-02-01T12:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Starlink ARPU in France now 600/year no upfront cost no long term commitment"
X Link 2024-02-03T00:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@AndrewParsonson @luchotiz @FT @Avio_Group @esa @SpaceX SpaceX may not be 100% 'the rest of the market' but not far: - 82% of total mass launched worldwide in [----] - 47% of the total mass launched (Starlink not included) Falcon captured 57% of the total demand on the 'open' market in the past [--] years (and 83% of it in 2023)"
X Link 2024-02-05T18:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"With @NedhirSahli we are finalising our space activity database with [----] data sets. As I go through various verifications I am pleased to share some graphical outcomes in a short hopefully informative thread. All charts are (c) by Eurospace. 1/"
X Link 2024-02-06T15:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Here's our estimate of the global launch market at market price equivalents and purchase power parities (PPP). Most of the demand (75%) comes from US and Chinese customers. The recent growth is due to the high value of the SLS launch and the large number of Starlink launches. 2/"
X Link 2024-02-06T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"These show the total mass launched by customer region split between private and public/government funded programmes. The chart is also rendered without Starlink for readers to appreciate the specific impact of this constellation on statistics. 3/"
X Link 2024-02-06T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Government spending is still by very far the driving force behind space infrastructure deployment. The business opportunity provided by privately funded programmes is still very low in comparison. This chart estimates the cost of infrastructure for the customer (R&D excl.). 4/"
X Link 2024-02-06T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"It has been two decades that we hear that the commercial space sector is "booming". While this is somehow true in number and mass of satellites launched it is only because of Starlink (an 'anomaly' in the sector). Otherwise there is no notable growth in mass or value. 5/"
X Link 2024-02-06T15:29Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Some analysts have consistently passed Starlink as a general trend while it is by all means a unique phenomenon in the sector and has no rivals as per today. See here Starlink in context with other 'not mega' constellations. Again proof that Starlink is uniquely big. 6/"
X Link 2024-02-06T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Now let's focus a little on Government programmes. Here is the total mass launched by mission. Human spaceflight is the major contributor to orbital launch activity worldwide (after Starlink). 7/"
X Link 2024-02-06T15:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@aravindEO I guess this is only about private equity investment Because government investment in observation satellites is at least one order of magnitude higher"
X Link 2024-02-07T18:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"As shown in this FAA forecast in [----] nobody saw Starlink coming. Fun fact: the FAA didn't see Oneweb coming either although it was announced in [----]. Forecasts are like astrology to me: a matter of irrational belief. 1/2"
X Link 2024-02-10T13:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@John__Holst @mouthofmorrison It is somewhat nasty and funny to look them up on linkedin see where they're at now"
X Link 2024-02-10T17:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"ROI or not ROI Is there a future for Satellite communications after SpaceX/Starlink This week it has become crystal clear that some of the most experienced companies in the satellite sector don't believe there can be an ROI for additional capital investment in the face of competition from SpaceX. Some investors haven't realized that yet. This week it has become crystal clear that some of the most experienced companies in the satellite sector don't believe there can be an ROI for additional capital investment in the face of competition from SpaceX. Some investors haven't realized that yet"
X Link 2024-02-19T10:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"A space VC and its menagerie of fantastic animals (or plants) See next post for other categories to use. 1/"
X Link 2024-02-23T14:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@eager_space released another well done informative video telling the story of geosynchronous satellite launch. This has been for decades the only commercial segment of the launch market (that is now slowly phasing out)"
X Link 2024-03-23T17:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BellikOzan It will be interesting to see what market share new launchers will be able to (re)capture. And if SpaceX will start to pass its cost savings to customers to maintain its lead. So far we dont see demand growing"
X Link 2024-03-29T20:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Pure players in space business [--] year stock performance a video. 1/3"
X Link 2024-04-06T10:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"And just for the fun of it the space index jointly designed by ESA the European Commission and Euronext. Accurate"
X Link 2024-04-06T10:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Just noticed that what Declan Ganley of @RivadaNetworks describes here is nothing but the old fashioned VSAT networks available for the past decades from GEO operators. Do you need a LEO constellation for that @pbdes https://www.spaceintelreport.com/rivada-says-investor-interest-in-its-broadband-constellation-is-high-but-provides-few-details-on-financing-status/ https://www.spaceintelreport.com/rivada-says-investor-interest-in-its-broadband-constellation-is-high-but-provides-few-details-on-financing-status/"
X Link 2024-04-18T08:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"So thanks to @breadfrom we now also have a peek at the 2018-2019 SpaceX financials. See below my tracking of SpaceX revenues leaked to the press so far. I must add that I find it incredibly frustrating that the press is not disclosing the full documents. Speaking of Starlink old SpaceX balance sheets from [----] & [----] show the degree to which the company was hanging its hat on bringing that business unit online: https://t.co/wIVvbOfc6H Speaking of Starlink old SpaceX balance sheets from [----] & [----] show the degree to which the company was hanging its hat on bringing that business unit online:"
X Link 2024-04-18T18:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BryceSpaceTech @DougonIPComm So how many of these are Starlink Is there still a smallsat trend in [----] now that Starlinks are bigger #rethoric"
X Link 2024-04-23T18:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@sling_shot_aero Hello I am confused by this chart here in your report. What is included in the Mass count The peaks above [---] tons/year in 2006-2011 are quite new to me. See our own estimate for comparison"
X Link 2024-04-30T13:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Space Public budgets are in growth Well. for those where actual data is available the trend is not so clear. Of course if you add on top the estimates for undocumented budgets you can make it look the way you like. 2/"
X Link 2024-05-06T12:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"There are still high barriers to invest in the space economy. The "long temporal dimension" is often overlooked these days where every newcomer startup instantly labels itself as a leader in its field. 4/"
X Link 2024-05-06T12:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Government answers to investment barriers rely on a common toolbox where R&D is subsidised debt and trade finance are facilitated and equity is backed by gvt funds. all going to indicate that pure market forces are not capable to sustain the level of investment required. 5/"
X Link 2024-05-06T12:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Megaconstellati @larrypress @Starlink Taiwan would need to send hundreds of satellites if it were to create a system that provides uninterrupted backup internet access experts told CNN. what experts With that use case one GEO bird would suffice esp. if you need internet backbone backup"
X Link 2024-05-08T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Watching the replay. Coming at this chart I find that the [----] Capex estimate is incredibly challenging at 2200$/kg to orbit launch included. I think this is overly optimistic and seems to value F9 launch at much less than the usual 28M$ 'all costs included' assumption. 1/ To anyone who missed our Starlink webinar this morning a replay is accessible here: https://t.co/cDDgbge11I To anyone who missed our Starlink webinar this morning a replay is accessible here: https://t.co/cDDgbge11I"
X Link 2024-05-10T14:12Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In this chart here it seems that the 'cost' per Mbps does not factor in the space segment D&A which is the largest cost item by far for the whole system. whatever assumption you make. 2/"
X Link 2024-05-10T14:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"When creating the Starlink financial model the highest & most cost sensitive item is the constellation capex and the profit/loss/FCF assumptions hinge on how you estimate the cost of satellites build & launch & the assumptions on satellite lifetime (and its impact on D&A). 3/"
X Link 2024-05-10T14:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ChenrySpace I see that. Ive been playing with these figures too but if F9 is really so cheap other things dont add up in the SpaceX model so I dont consider it to be the baseline assumption"
X Link 2024-05-10T16:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@marisafromearth @SciGuySpace @QuiltySpace Vertical integration is hardly considered an efficient way to industrialise mass market products. See cars appliances electronic devices etc. I think that Starlink cost efficiency lies in large batch automated production technology downgrading & design to launch"
X Link 2024-05-12T13:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"And we still have no practical use for He3 BTW The idea that it is necessary to mine He3 on the Moon for energy is now outdated thanks to recent discoveries that show He3 is far more abundant on Earth that thought previously especially in volcanic outflows like those in Hawaii and Iceland. He3 is also found in deep natural https://t.co/3ArKJxaLDu The idea that it is necessary to mine He3 on the Moon for energy is now outdated thanks to recent discoveries that show He3 is far more abundant on Earth that thought previously especially in volcanic outflows like those in Hawaii and Iceland. He3 is"
X Link 2024-05-12T16:13Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"In this interview @Peter_J_Beck takes about [--] minutes to not answer the simple question "who are the customers for Neutron". It seems that customers wanting to buy "lots of launch" are not easily identified or named (except the US military of course). 1/ https://youtu.be/T__1ubfs_iEt=445 https://youtu.be/T__1ubfs_iEt=445"
X Link 2024-05-13T12:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"But eventually Peter Beck concludes that "Neutron demand is not a thing I am worried about" which really leaves me wondering. 2/ https://youtu.be/T__1ubfs_iEt=722 https://youtu.be/T__1ubfs_iEt=722"
X Link 2024-05-13T12:10Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@vinceisbullish @Peter_J_Beck Why not"
X Link 2024-05-13T15:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@figuringoutcast @vinceisbullish @Peter_J_Beck Can you be more specific about 'promising' What customers do you see in the pipeline for Neutron"
X Link 2024-05-13T15:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Rapheal013 @figuringoutcast @vinceisbullish @Peter_J_Beck That is exactly my point a non expanding customer base with a growing array of new launchers to cater to it leading to a globally decreasing market shares for all suppliers with increased pression on prices and eventually low cadence"
X Link 2024-05-14T09:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Rapheal013 @figuringoutcast @vinceisbullish @Peter_J_Beck Misleading. Most of these non Starlink smallsats are so very small that they dont represent a sizeable market for launchers. I did a thread to show how these stats in numbers create a false illusion of growth"
X Link 2024-05-14T21:01Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Rapheal013 @figuringoutcast @vinceisbullish @Peter_J_Beck Starlink is actually killing the competition in Broadband internet leaving very little space to the new and incumbent players. Hence my doubts with the effective rollout of competing constellation in the same space. Moreover most projects are underfunded"
X Link 2024-05-15T11:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Newer ask a Kiwi where the demand to scale up his new launcher will come from but wait do I see a pattern here Is the whole sector rooting for powerpoint constellations Never ask man his salary and European satellite manufacturer where the demand for [---] sats a year will come from Never ask man his salary and European satellite manufacturer where the demand for [---] sats a year will come from"
X Link 2024-05-19T08:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Le @shift_europepublie un rapport sur l'impact environnemental des rseaux numriques. Il consacre une section aux constellations"
X Link 2024-05-22T19:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Reading in this recent article by @AndrewParsonson this quote from @DianaMorantR For every euro we invest in the space sector we generate up to [--] euros for our countrys economy.. Would love to have a reference for this figure. https://europeanspaceflight.com/spain-publishes-e70m-space-technology-call/ https://europeanspaceflight.com/spain-publishes-e70m-space-technology-call/"
X Link 2024-05-24T08:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@John__Holst looks into the impact of deorbiting satellites in this piece. A good moment to recall that after focusing solely on orbital pollution the sector now starts looking at atmospheric impacts of space activity. A well needed shift. 1/ https://open.substack.com/pub/illdefinedspace/p/getting-down-to-earth-with-satellites https://open.substack.com/pub/illdefinedspace/p/getting-down-to-earth-with-satellites"
X Link 2024-05-24T08:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Taking the opportunity to repost the link to this recent report by @shift_europe looking at the environmental impact of mega-constellations with the useful reminder that nothing compares to Starlink in terms of mass deployed in LEO usage. 2/ https://theshiftproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/The-Shift-Project-Strategie-pour-des-reseaux-numeriques-sobres-et-resilients-Rapport-final-2024.pdf https://theshiftproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/The-Shift-Project-Strategie-pour-des-reseaux-numeriques-sobres-et-resilients-Rapport-final-2024.pdf"
X Link 2024-05-24T08:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@CJHandmer It seems that by focusing on cost in $ and not on EROI the paper misses the point. Today PV is cheap bc produced with hydrocarbon. The EROI may not even be positive as experts in the matter endlessly debate. And if PV is an energy sink all this is meaningless"
X Link 2024-05-25T10:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A discussion on the assumptions underlying the economics of SpaceX and Starlink and how the very low cost for falcon launch is inescapably tied to Starlink profitability but also implies a very high mark-up on falcon launches sold to external customers. https://spacenews.com/spacex-and-the-categorical-imperative-to-achieve-low-launch-cost/ https://spacenews.com/spacex-and-the-categorical-imperative-to-achieve-low-launch-cost/"
X Link 2024-06-07T13:52Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@jmlu77 Indeed. And in fact this seems to be one of the elements of the Rocket Lab strategy. But then another question arises: how far can the demand for satellite broadband can be stretched to enable more mega-constellations"
X Link 2024-06-07T14:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TMFAssociates @davehuntsman Well China is promoting at least [--] mega constellations and they could achieve the same economics (or better). My interrogation is around the growth prospects for satellite broadband demand and the validity of the assumptions in the model"
X Link 2024-06-08T08:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TMFAssociates @davehuntsman That is an excellent question"
X Link 2024-06-08T08:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I am reading a report on Scotland's space sector and they state that @SaxaVord_Space received over [---] million GBP in funding. Last time i looked the figure I had was around 40M$. Can anyone confirm this [---] million GBP figure https://scottishscience.org.uk/sites/default/files/2024-05/SSAC%20Space%20Report%20-%20Annex%20E%20-%20Brief%20overview%20of%20Scottish%20industrial%20landscape_2.pdf https://scottishscience.org.uk/sites/default/files/2024-05/SSAC%20Space%20Report%20-%20Annex%20E%20-%20Brief%20overview%20of%20Scottish%20industrial%20landscape_2.pdf"
X Link 2024-06-11T07:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Does this mean that Starlink customers marginal ARPU is now closer to 500$/year than 1400$/ year as previously If so the Starlink revenue curvecwould reveal itself to be an S curve now reaching the phase of decreasing growth and profits. Rut Roh. Starlink Mini now available in Colombia. Equipment = $192 US Monthly Service = $36 https://t.co/pe8RKeImJR Rut Roh. Starlink Mini now available in Colombia. Equipment = $192 US Monthly Service = $36 https://t.co/pe8RKeImJR"
X Link 2024-06-22T08:53Z [----] followers, 13.1K engagements
"ISRO chairman comes to the same conclusions as I do: there is no visible growth in the launch demand beyond Starlink. https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1754889943854305654 The satellite launch market the world over is grim Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) chairman S Somanath has said while highlighting that there are rockets available and are waiting for demand. https://t.co/nxVVWpqmrG https://t.co/k0GktLYbkf https://x.com/LionnetPierre/status/1754889943854305654 The satellite launch market the world over is grim Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) chairman S Somanath has said"
X Link 2024-06-27T09:24Z [----] followers, 20.4K engagements
"@Orbital_Perigee Show the data supporting that statement please"
X Link 2024-06-27T12:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@sherkhantx Indeed everybody knows how good the private space sector has been at predicting demand growth and cost reduction (courtesy of VirginOrbit Momentus and NSR)"
X Link 2024-06-28T12:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AndrewParsonson this is not an orbital launch but rather a sounding rocket right"
X Link 2024-07-06T14:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@SohoNehel @ashleevance Lack of distance and excessive fanboy attitude from the author. But I loved the quotes and the behind the scenes account of the stories told"
X Link 2024-07-10T07:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Of course when considering China we can all but notice how it is now aiming to be the most important global space power on the basis of government funded programs. And this is not even considering human flights but only focusing on civil and military satellite applications. 4/"
X Link 2024-07-19T16:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"I seem to be repeating myself on this specific subject but I keep seeing analysts underplaying China and ignoring the push in the military space domain just because Starlink and Human spaceflight tend to hide these trends. So I believe this was a useful reminder. 5/"
X Link 2024-07-19T16:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Expect these guys to start tapping intro private equity and VC money again wonder if there are any gullible investors left to take the plunge. Astra is now a private company. Adam and I could not be more grateful for our team and the customers shareholders and community that have supported us on this journey. We will now focus all of our attention on a successful launch of Rocket [--] delivering satellite engines to https://t.co/2vTDF5MbUe Astra is now a private company. Adam and I could not be more grateful for our team and the customers shareholders and community that have supported us on this"
X Link 2024-07-20T11:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TimFernholz @payloadspace If your revenues never cover your costs you are not creating value. Whatever the reason you are doing it wrong. Everybody has a right to anticipate this will change. But so far this creed has no substance to build upon"
X Link 2024-07-20T18:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@spacecapital issued their updated Quarterly investment report. This is a somewhat useful source for tracking space investment even if they keep including in their report a lot of completely irrelevant stuff. TL/DR: Space investment is not 291B$ 1/ https://spacecapital.docsend.com/view/xtych3cu6jgbuzn9 https://spacecapital.docsend.com/view/xtych3cu6jgbuzn9"
X Link 2024-07-25T16:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The section of the report titled 'infrastructure' is really about space business. I recommend that you ignore the funding labelled 'other' whose value is very much an estimate/invention but for the rest you can get some interesting trends in VC and PE funding for space. 2/"
X Link 2024-07-25T16:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"But after that and if you're interested in space businesses I recommend you stop reading. The sections on 'distribution' and 'applications' include the broadest and mostly incoherent set of businesses whose relationship with the space sector is very very very thin. 3/"
X Link 2024-07-25T16:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Let me give some examples here. The biggest funding round in the document is for Scale AI a company providing data labelling and verification services using extremely cheap labour (modern slavery some would say). Their link with the space sector is nonexistent. 4/"
X Link 2024-07-25T16:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"You will also find there the usual list of companies that use GNSS signals to support their operations. Like Waabi dott Uber etc. The presence of an AI based insurance company (Honeycomb) is also a surprise. All these companies are included in the 'satellite' segment 🤦. 5/"
X Link 2024-07-25T16:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"To be clear the funds raised by non-space segments of the assessment represent 74% of the 291B$ stated figure. This is big enough to let me raise an eyebrow (or two) considering that they label all this nonsense 'investment in the space economy'. 6/end"
X Link 2024-07-25T16:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"And for aded context here @PLD_Space 84M$ figure here includes some 40M in debt financing provided under Spain's PERTE. AFAIK they didn't raise that much in equity in Q2 2024"
X Link 2024-07-25T16:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"If your reference for space industry is the inept space economy figure there is no surprise that it doesnt correlate with other economic indicators. But wait maybe it correlates to smartphone markets Because thats the main component of that figure. Study finds space industry growth uncorrelated to larger markets https://t.co/dL6UwsSrcv https://t.co/MXGyWw6HnQ Study finds space industry growth uncorrelated to larger markets https://t.co/dL6UwsSrcv https://t.co/MXGyWw6HnQ"
X Link 2024-08-01T12:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Scientists and Noahs Ark im the same headline. Fishy as hell. SCIENTISTS PROPOSE NOAHS ARK ON THE MOON With thousands of species at risk of extinction scientists have proposed a lunar vault filled with preserved samples of Earths most endangered creatures. The international team of experts warned that climate change and habitat loss https://t.co/UH33Gpb7MB SCIENTISTS PROPOSE NOAHS ARK ON THE MOON With thousands of species at risk of extinction scientists have proposed a lunar vault filled with preserved samples of Earths most endangered creatures. The international team of experts warned that"
X Link 2024-08-01T12:23Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@fikocian I was curious about the hosts. And found that now they also have a fund Wonder how neutral they can be. https://www.geekwire.com/2024/ben-gilbert-and-david-rosenthal-founders-of-podcast-acquired-are-raising-an-investment-fund/ https://www.geekwire.com/2024/ben-gilbert-and-david-rosenthal-founders-of-podcast-acquired-are-raising-an-investment-fund/"
X Link 2024-08-01T12:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@milan_tomicc Elon Musk thinks this is "good idea""
X Link 2024-08-01T14:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@CommanderMLA @SciGuySpace These companies that are free from the constraints of a government agency are still 100% relying on gvt money for the Artemis programme"
X Link 2024-08-05T16:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A good briefing on LEO constellations from the 90s to Starlink. Still unsure about the magic sauce behind the very low Starlink capex which would be the sole reason for it to not go bankrupt. https://caseclosed.substack.com/p/starlink-is-this-time-different There have been [--] serious LEO satcom attempts: Iridium ORBCOMM Teledesic Globalstar OneWeb Starlink Only Starlink hasnt failed at first In my newsletter post tomorrow we will examine if this time is truly different for Starlink Sign up via the link in my bio to read 🛰 https://t.co/325HQNavwl"
X Link 2024-08-12T11:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"mystery broadband constellation customer Who could it be .@MDA_space: H1 rev/EBITDA/backlog way up; leverage down; to be free-cash-flow positive this year; mystery broadband constellation customer raises its commitment to $200M for software-defined sats; 90% of @Telesat Lightspeed suppliers now under contract.https://t.co/9A3DBKi9Xx https://t.co/PpYkzeFLBp .@MDA_space: H1 rev/EBITDA/backlog way up; leverage down; to be free-cash-flow positive this year; mystery broadband constellation customer raises its commitment to $200M for software-defined sats; 90% of @Telesat Lightspeed suppliers now"
X Link 2024-08-12T17:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"While many new space palyers dont even have the money for proof of concept almost none have financial prospects to scale up and deploy a full constellation. $ASTS is no different than the others. 1/ @realmemes6 @kingtutcap $300m is a drop in the bucket. It doesnt solve any problems. They need $1-2B to build the constellation. Put another way: There are two steps: proof of concept and scale. They have enough money for proof of concept (like [--] attempts) and $300m doesnt really help with scale. @realmemes6 @kingtutcap $300m is a drop in the bucket. It doesnt solve any problems. They need $1-2B"
X Link 2024-08-17T08:50Z [----] followers, 27.9K engagements
"Seeing that investors are still buying at this price is indicative of some form of collective delusion how do they expect ASTS to generate more than a few million $ in revenue with just [--] sats (assuming they even get there) What exactly is the prospect for profit 2/end"
X Link 2024-08-17T08:50Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"TL/DR: Trump space agenda must accelerate Artemis continue the focus on commercial growth and save the taxpayers money. Starship is the key. Space Force shall protect "US interests" on the Moon. #speechless Make Space Great Again https://t.co/eR8t4bUaNG https://t.co/Oz52COSD6b Make Space Great Again https://t.co/eR8t4bUaNG https://t.co/Oz52COSD6b"
X Link 2024-08-17T09:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@0054_ams Starlink had 5B$ of funding secured"
X Link 2024-08-17T09:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@0054_ams There are many sources. https://tracxn.com/d/companies/spacex/__UIpPfXSDe2O53VUbJNlNoPlcSwZr-1f_r0ie4BjsSaw/funding-and-investors https://tracxn.com/d/companies/spacex/__UIpPfXSDe2O53VUbJNlNoPlcSwZr-1f_r0ie4BjsSaw/funding-and-investors"
X Link 2024-08-17T10:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@0054_ams Starlink was announced already in [----] and started deploying fast after [----]. SpaceX raised 68B$ in the period. Plus it had 1-2B$/yr revenues from its Falcon/Dragon business. I don't think you can compare this with ASTS current cash strapped position"
X Link 2024-08-17T12:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""In its own statement Intuitive Machines said that mass on the lander is expected to be available for commercial payloads in addition to the NASA payloads but did not announce any customers beyond NASA." NASA selects Intuitive Machines for south pole lunar lander mission https://t.co/7J6A5Jl3nn https://t.co/9TCEvECpV1 NASA selects Intuitive Machines for south pole lunar lander mission https://t.co/7J6A5Jl3nn https://t.co/9TCEvECpV1"
X Link 2024-08-30T07:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@astro_treks Actually it seems that commercial customers are not rushing to take advantage of CLPS opportunities. For the time being Intuitive is covering with its own funds the costs not covered by NASA I think"
X Link 2024-08-30T13:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The sad fate of many Space SPACs along with the struggle to break even. Earth Observation seems to be a tougher case than originally anticipated. News: @BlackSky_Inc Announces 1-for-8 Reverse Stock Split Effective September 6th $BKSY https://t.co/ZV7ZwpayOp News: @BlackSky_Inc Announces 1-for-8 Reverse Stock Split Effective September 6th $BKSY https://t.co/ZV7ZwpayOp"
X Link 2024-09-05T07:20Z [----] followers, 24.7K engagements
"@joe_mckirdy Yes but very different sensors and resolution between the two. So can't really compare them. https://www.eoportal.org/satellite-missions/planet https://www.eoportal.org/satellite-missions/blacksky-constellation https://www.eoportal.org/satellite-missions/planet https://www.eoportal.org/satellite-missions/blacksky-constellation"
X Link 2024-09-05T12:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@SpaceInvestor_ @planet The resilience of $PL shareholders is remarkable (Accumulated deficit 1B$). But it is worrying to see that there is still no profit in sight despite excellent customer retention and revenue growth. https://investors.planet.com/news/news-details/2024/Planet-Reports-Financial-Results-for-Second-Quarter-of-Fiscal-Year-2025/default.aspx https://investors.planet.com/news/news-details/2024/Planet-Reports-Financial-Results-for-Second-Quarter-of-Fiscal-Year-2025/default.aspx"
X Link 2024-09-06T09:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This formulation seems to imply that SpaceX at least cofunds the mission. Or else they found the perfect formula with wealthy customers with unique motivations paying to derisk technologies owned by SpaceX. SpaceX was founded to make life multiplanetary. Missions like Polaris Dawn help advance the development of the technologies necessary to enable a more exciting future https://t.co/VeNfpwmf9I SpaceX was founded to make life multiplanetary. Missions like Polaris Dawn help advance the development of the technologies necessary to enable a more exciting future https://t.co/VeNfpwmf9I"
X Link 2024-09-10T20:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TMFAssociates What was the original price of the Roam plan in question"
X Link 2024-09-11T09:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Do we notice stiffness in the suit What's with the arm position Commander @rookisaacman has egressed Dragon and is going through the first of three suit mobility tests that will test overall hand body control vertical movement with Skywalker and foot restraint https://t.co/XATJQhLuIZ Commander @rookisaacman has egressed Dragon and is going through the first of three suit mobility tests that will test overall hand body control vertical movement with Skywalker and foot restraint https://t.co/XATJQhLuIZ"
X Link 2024-09-12T16:58Z [----] followers, 23.4K engagements
"So many readers offended by this question. Amazing. Here is the video of Apollo [--] EVA (1972) for comparison notice how arms legs and fingers bend with relative ease. 1/ https://www.youtube.com/watchv=5A0OxDgLZ_4 Do we notice stiffness in the suit What's with the arm position https://www.youtube.com/watchv=5A0OxDgLZ_4 Do we notice stiffness in the suit What's with the arm position"
X Link 2024-09-13T08:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"When comparing with Ed White's EVA in [----] you see how the suits of Apollo have improved on the Gemini ones. You can see Ed waving and moving his arms but otherwise not moving much similar to the Polaris-Dawn achievement. 2/ https://www.youtube.com/watchv=NQII-O6Nn2U https://www.youtube.com/watchv=NQII-O6Nn2U"
X Link 2024-09-13T08:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Alexei Leonov's EVA (in 1965) similarly shows relatively limited arm range movement like Polaris-Dawn. All this was in in [----] and was dramatically improved in just a few years. 3/ https://www.youtube.com/watchv=uAPBRvd8OTY https://www.youtube.com/watchv=uAPBRvd8OTY"
X Link 2024-09-13T08:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Looking at Polaris-Dawn EVA I was surprised by the stiffness (that sent me back to these images of the 60s) particularly noticeable when they enter/exit Dragon. And I hope that a respected journalist raises this question at the press conference. 4/ https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1834276061489590649 https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1834276061489590649"
X Link 2024-09-13T08:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"This may boost some stocks but has no impact on market fundamentals. This [----] rate cut is so bullish for growth space stocks $RKLB $RDW $LUNR $MDA 🚀 This [----] rate cut is so bullish for growth space stocks $RKLB $RDW $LUNR $MDA 🚀"
X Link 2024-09-18T21:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A good analysis of @planet business even if I don't buy the 'macro' trends that the company touts to explain commercial revenue decline. I think that the main explanation is the low perceived value of EO data for commercial customers leading to price adjustments. A few years ago Planet Labs touted a commercial EO market on the verge of an inflection point forecasting commercial revenue would grow to 68% of total sales by the end of next year. Instead the opposite has happened The full story: https://t.co/2BPReZKoNx https://t.co/sxyeJX4QF6 A few years ago Planet Labs touted a commercial EO"
X Link 2024-09-20T11:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"POV: you just landed on Mars and there's no ground support crew to ease you out of your spacecraft. Finally the last member of the crew @Roscosmos cosmonaut Nikolai Chub egresses the spacecraft. Same as Oleg he spent [---] days uninterrupted in space during his last mission at the International @Space_Station. #SoyuzMS25 https://t.co/80u0sKXr9Y Finally the last member of the crew @Roscosmos cosmonaut Nikolai Chub egresses the spacecraft. Same as Oleg he spent [---] days uninterrupted in space during his last mission at the International @Space_Station. #SoyuzMS25 https://t.co/80u0sKXr9Y"
X Link 2024-09-23T14:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"So @MorganStanley downgrades $SPCE from its 35$ target to 5$. But why they set this 35$ target in the first place is a complete mystery to me. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-sees-more-downside-143244107.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-sees-more-downside-143244107.html"
X Link 2024-09-24T11:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Not familiar with private equity Heres a well rounded 30mn crash course. with @PatrickEBoyle https://m.youtube.com/watchv=NUdScOXzWsg https://m.youtube.com/watchv=NUdScOXzWsg"
X Link 2024-09-29T09:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The battle for satellite to phone services is intense and the battleground is regulatory. Some like to believe this is a 30B$ market opportunity. NEW A group of European wireless network operators are threatening legal action if American regulators approve SpaceX's efforts to provide phone-to-satellite connections to T-Mobile customers. https://t.co/cUKhva6t6L NEW A group of European wireless network operators are threatening legal action if American regulators approve SpaceX's efforts to provide phone-to-satellite connections to T-Mobile customers. https://t.co/cUKhva6t6L"
X Link 2024-10-05T10:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@PLD_Space Ambitious roadmap here: first tests in [----] first launch with Miura-5 in [----] and first orbital launch in [----] according to this press report. https://www.elespanol.com/omicrono/defensa-y-espacio/20241007/espanola-pld-quiere-spacex-europea-presenta-nuevos-cohetes-nave-espacial-ir-luna/891661080_0.html https://www.elespanol.com/omicrono/defensa-y-espacio/20241007/espanola-pld-quiere-spacex-europea-presenta-nuevos-cohetes-nave-espacial-ir-luna/891661080_0.html"
X Link 2024-10-07T13:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"OFCOM launched a consultation on D2D service to provide guidance for UK authorities on the regulatory way forward. The background document gives a lot of context on D2D. The very first question of the consultation relates to the market opportunity. 1/ https://www.ofcom.org.uk/siteassets/resources/documents/consultations/category-2-6-weeks/call-for-input-improving-mobile-connectivity-from-the-sky-and-space/main-documents/call-for-input-improving-mobile-connectivity-from-the-sky-and-space.pdfv=370909"
X Link 2024-10-08T08:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"There are [--] answers so far to the consultation so I checked them out anxious to discover more about the 'market opportunity'. Worth noting that AST and SpaceX have not contributed to the consultation. 2/ https://www.ofcom.org.uk/spectrum/space-and-satellites/improving-mobile-connectivity-from-the-sky-and-space/s=03 https://www.ofcom.org.uk/spectrum/space-and-satellites/improving-mobile-connectivity-from-the-sky-and-space/s=03"
X Link 2024-10-08T08:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Not sure I get this right: the FCC authorises an emergency service outside the normal regulatory path but only T-Mobile customers can take full advantage of it We turned on satellite service to cell phones in Florida in preparation for Hurricane #Milton hitting soon. People with @TMobile can now text in Florida and all phones and carriers will receive emergency alerts. Huge thank you to the @FCC who moved extremely quickly on two We turned on satellite service to cell phones in Florida in preparation for Hurricane #Milton hitting soon. People with @TMobile can now text in Florida and all"
X Link 2024-10-09T08:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@richard_e_cole A good one but hardly applied by space enthusiasts out there"
X Link 2024-10-10T10:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"But with an average [--] tons per launch (disregarding T1) is it reasonable to assume that SpaceX made more than 25M$ on each Transporter launch Frankly I don't think so. And even so that would mean an average price per kg for the customer of 10k$. Not cheap overall. 5/"
X Link 2024-10-10T16:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Now let's have a look at the customer base. In this chart every color represent a different customer. The Transporter missions have had about [---] different customers only [--] of which are returning customers. The big dark green bar of T-1 is Starlink BTW. 6/"
X Link 2024-10-10T16:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"US customers are the majority with 55% of the mass launched but this only true when SpaceX payloads are included. Once they are removed non US customers represent 52% of the mass launched. They are mostly European. 9/end"
X Link 2024-10-10T16:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@fchopard71 They may 😅 But since we don't know the actual yield of Transporter missions due to the complex pricing systems and the many actors involved nor the actual cost of Falcon launch I wouldn't dare being affirmative. https://spacenews.com/spacex-and-the-categorical-imperative-to-achieve-low-launch-cost/ https://spacenews.com/spacex-and-the-categorical-imperative-to-achieve-low-launch-cost/"
X Link 2024-10-10T17:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Starbase operations cost SpaceX 4M$/day according to documents filed for lawsuit. This is consistent with previously heard figure of 1-2B$/year. https://wccftech.com/spacex-says-it-will-lose-4-million-per-day-if-starship-launches-are-suspended-by-court/amp/ https://wccftech.com/spacex-says-it-will-lose-4-million-per-day-if-starship-launches-are-suspended-by-court/amp/"
X Link 2024-10-12T20:44Z [----] followers, 11.7K engagements
"Well that was quite a show. Now we need to deploy some payload see how much mass Starship can actually deliver to orbit"
X Link 2024-10-13T13:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@vishalreddy0499 @NedhirSahli The SpaceX rideshare pricing system is a mix of minimum purchase and price/kg. Launch aggregators act as intermediaries and probably allow cubesats to spread the minimum purchase"
X Link 2024-10-14T09:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"So what is the limit to grow your launch business Definitely "the market" (or rather the demand) says Adam Spice @RocketLab CFO. The demand is not growing and Spice even calls it a "nascent" market. https://youtu.be/Rc6Lq5MKLfIt=295 https://youtu.be/Rc6Lq5MKLfIt=295"
X Link 2024-10-16T16:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"After @Axiom_Space announced collaboration with designer @ph_starck for its space station in [----] they now collaborate with fashion brand @Prada for their space suits. 1/ https://www.axiomspace.com/release/prada-axiom-suit https://www.axiomspace.com/news/axiom-space-and-philippe-starck-to-create-commercial-space-station-at-the-iss https://www.axiomspace.com/release/prada-axiom-suit https://www.axiomspace.com/news/axiom-space-and-philippe-starck-to-create-commercial-space-station-at-the-iss"
X Link 2024-10-18T16:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Megaconstellati @Novaspace_ @Starlink How are we expected to interpret the strange blurb about Starlink "development cost for gen [--] &2 amounting to 3B$ (at 2:11) This figure makes no sense to me. Starlink total capex by end [----] is probably more than 10B IMO. And the capacity growth forecast Not convinced"
X Link 2024-10-19T09:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The impact of launch activity on the atmosphere is still insufficiently characterised. @latestinspace On November [--] [----] SpaceXs Starship rocket exploded at high altitude creating a temporary hole in Earths ionospherea region filled with charged particles. The explosions shockwaves displaced these particles leading to a localized reduction in ionization. This @latestinspace On November [--] [----] SpaceXs Starship rocket exploded at high altitude creating a temporary hole in Earths ionospherea region filled with charged particles. The explosions shockwaves displaced these particles leading to a"
X Link 2024-11-05T20:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@HardwireMedia Not really. This article links a few studies showing that both launch and satellite atmospheric reentry have huge impacts even at the current relatively low frequency. The more research advances the less the space sector can ignore its impact. https://www.space.com/rocket-launches-satellite-reentries-air-pollution-concerns https://www.space.com/rocket-launches-satellite-reentries-air-pollution-concerns"
X Link 2024-11-05T20:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@thekookreport Ppl often get this wrong but F9 only has 18t LEO capacity (reusable) an FH only has about 25t capacity due to upper stage mechanical and volume limits. FH is a a high energy launcher for GEO missions rather than a heavy launcher for LEO"
X Link 2024-11-11T09:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"there are actually useful cases but not enough (and not solvent enough) to sustain the multi billion level investment to make them viable. So the useful case becomes a rare positive externality or a byproduct of an otherwise incredibly wasteful system. 1/ Chris Quilty talks about the capabilities of DTD "Marching society forward with the ability to instagram anywhere but obviously there's a lot of other more useful cases." Chris Quilty talks about the capabilities of DTD "Marching society forward with the ability to instagram anywhere but obviously there's a lot of other more useful cases.""
X Link 2024-11-11T19:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The negative externalities of megaconstellations the massive launch needs and the tons of satellites forced back into the atmosphere in particular are absolutely huge and probably not worth the actual social added value of the service provided. 2/end"
X Link 2024-11-11T19:59Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Assuming a 67M$ price this 35t to GEO launch in reusable mode cost the customer close to 20k$/kg. Quite a high price but without competition 🚀 Yesterday SpaceX succesfully launched Koreasat 6A from SLC-40. 🛰 The satellite will replace the existing Koreasat [--] and provide South Korea with both Fixed Satellite Service (FSS) and Broadcast Satellite Service (BSS) capabilities. Find out more: https://t.co/BLM0NN0i0I 🚀 Yesterday SpaceX succesfully launched Koreasat 6A from SLC-40. 🛰 The satellite will replace the existing Koreasat [--] and provide South Korea with both Fixed Satellite Service (FSS)"
X Link 2024-11-13T11:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Gayettix Historically the price/kg with A5 to GEO was between [--] and 19k$ for commercial customers"
X Link 2024-11-13T15:12Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"And while I'm at it I share these two tables from our Space Global Context report soon to be published. These are total mass launched and average (actual) price/kg to launch by launcher class. The smaller the launcher the higher the price/kg in case you didn't know"
X Link 2024-11-13T15:40Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@trengriffin Indeed but there seems to be a sweet spot with current launchers whereas very large launchers grow in complexity and costs and are more expensive. Moreover since they are less frequently used they are less prone to creating economies of scale"
X Link 2024-11-14T08:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@TMFAssociates @KevinLMak I second that. Launch cost alone for [--] sats (3t each) is no less than 800M$. Ive always found ASTS statements on infrastructure costs to be disturbingly low"
X Link 2024-11-15T07:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@AuerSusan This doesn't add up well. [--] BBs on a falcon [--] is at least 67M$ for launch alone. Are we assuming that each BB1 satellite cost only 3M$ or so Is this credible"
X Link 2024-11-15T09:49Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"SpaceX is the endless startup. Never profitable in its own always dependent on more capital to make ends meet. JUST IN: SPACEX TO LAUNCH TENDER OFFER IN DECEMBER VALUING COMPANY AT OVER $250 BILLION https://t.co/8iCZnDDMxS JUST IN: SPACEX TO LAUNCH TENDER OFFER IN DECEMBER VALUING COMPANY AT OVER $250 BILLION https://t.co/8iCZnDDMxS"
X Link 2024-11-16T09:55Z [----] followers, 27.3K engagements
"A few words about this. 1) if Starlink was as profitable as @QuiltySpace thinks why would Shotwell be so prudent with her statements on this subject Starlink financials are very sensitive to very small variations in assumptions including actual lifetime and customer growth. Shotwell predicts Starship to be most valuable part of SpaceX https://t.co/EOtCEA48YO https://t.co/K4jdWM6Tmn Shotwell predicts Starship to be most valuable part of SpaceX https://t.co/EOtCEA48YO https://t.co/K4jdWM6Tmn"
X Link 2024-11-16T10:25Z [----] followers, 20.2K engagements
"2) Starship is believed to change the game in space aplications only because of its low price but we know that the only way for this to (maybe) happen is to forfeit all the profit to the customers and hope they can come up with a cheap satellite system to build their business"
X Link 2024-11-16T10:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"3) The condition for Starship to be cheap is to achieve very high cadence mostly provided by Starlink demand. If SpaceX gives the same advantage to Starlink competitors it will lose the competitive advantage it has on them thus hampering Starlink customer uptake"
X Link 2024-11-16T10:25Z [----] followers, 64.4K engagements
"4) Ergo this is just talk to attract investors interest with novelty. With the previous capital raises the new thing was Starlink. The new new thing is now Starship. /end"
X Link 2024-11-16T10:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DundeeSat @NickAstronomer I think that atmospheric impact of launch and satellite reentry is much more critical but Kessler is also a tisk in LEO"
X Link 2024-11-16T10:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@Gayettix Indeed unless they commercialise that through a 3rd party. Still this is still very far away. I was more thinking about the satellite launch business and specifically the megaconstellation business"
X Link 2024-11-16T17:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@aarontburnett I like to be called out of touch by someone who poses with a fake astronaut suit. It kinda reassures me"
X Link 2024-11-16T17:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@PlumConsulting made an analysis of Starlink pricing per country in USD and in purchasing power parities (PPP). Interesting results. Thank you @LucasButhion for the link https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7264623869620088832/ https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7264623869620088832/"
X Link 2024-11-19T15:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@cpl43uk As for Starship I have no idea where are the reservoirs of demand for that beast of a launcher whatever the launch price may be unless the price point is so low that humongous projects such as Solar Power Satellites eventually gather some serious funding to take off"
X Link 2024-11-19T15:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"A bit disappointed that IFT-6 did not attempt a mechazilla catch. We aren't the same. IFT-6 vs IFT-5 https://t.co/cw7iNi9VTb We aren't the same. IFT-6 vs IFT-5 https://t.co/cw7iNi9VTb"
X Link 2024-11-20T13:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The business equivalent of fantasy sport. Latitude signs multi-launch contract with Atmos Space Cargo https://t.co/Y1BHSHfXQW https://t.co/ODaSW7PjcA Latitude signs multi-launch contract with Atmos Space Cargo https://t.co/Y1BHSHfXQW https://t.co/ODaSW7PjcA"
X Link 2024-11-20T19:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Starbase water consumption puts strain on local resources. https://myrgv.com/local-news/2024/11/22/spacex-consumes-millions-of-gallons-of-brownsville-water-amid-scarcity/ https://myrgv.com/local-news/2024/11/22/spacex-consumes-millions-of-gallons-of-brownsville-water-amid-scarcity/"
X Link 2024-11-23T11:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@CKalitin @spacecoastwest @deltaIV9250 @planet4589 This is even less of course. Especially since Electron's average payload performance sits just below 100kg per launch so far"
X Link 2024-11-24T11:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BellikOzan @TheRTest @StormSilvawalk1 F9 is priced at (maybe) 67M$ per launch or 65k$/kg with transporter missions. Since it hardly flies full (except with Starlink where the average load is 17t) but averages 7t the actual price/kg is close to 10k$"
X Link 2024-11-24T12:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@BellikOzan @Noname117S @TheRTest @StormSilvawalk1 Yes Starlink is out (nobody really knows what is the Starlink launch price) and Dragon too (all human flights are a separate analysis in our work)"
X Link 2024-11-24T15:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BellikOzan @TheRTest @StormSilvawalk1 Well Starlink is not stimulating the launch market. It has stifled GEO operators and undercut small launchers. Regarding the what if forecasting I leave that to others. But I do invite them to look closely at actual price & market conditions for extrapolation"
X Link 2024-11-24T15:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BellikOzan @TheRTest @StormSilvawalk1 And Electron pricing has nothing to do with any boom in smallsats. Electron is the most expensive launcher available today ($/kg)"
X Link 2024-11-24T15:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BellikOzan @Noname117S @TheRTest @StormSilvawalk1 No if the focus of the analysis is the launch price context for non anchor customers"
X Link 2024-11-24T15:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BellikOzan @TheRTest @StormSilvawalk1 Ok but you have moved the post. This was about launch price and my point is that F9 has not stimulated demand growth so far thanks to low pricing. And yes Kuiper has announced a major launch deal. Lets wait for it to happen before we start counting that in"
X Link 2024-11-24T15:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@Tomas_Stellar @BellikOzan @TheRTest @StormSilvawalk1 There is a minimum buy at 50kg on Transporter/Bandwagon. This has an impact on average price/kg for customers with smaller payloads. Also creates a business case for launch aggregators but then you also pay their service on top resulting in higher $/kg. https://rideshare.spacex.com/searchorbitClassification=1&launchDate=2025-03-25&payloadMass=50 https://rideshare.spacex.com/searchorbitClassification=1&launchDate=2025-03-25&payloadMass=50"
X Link 2024-11-25T11:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Crazy to see that most believe that the RKLB stock is cheap at 27x sales considering that the company has yet to demonstrate it can make a profit after [--] years. Technical execution is a good thing but profit becomes a necessity though investors seem not to care. $RKLB In keeping with my thoughts that things are frothy i.e. most people still think the stock is "cheap" at 27x sales We can definitely get more frothy But the stock is priced for perfection A neutron delay or failure would cut the stock in half https://t.co/LLJL3EqZNw $RKLB In keeping with my thoughts that things are frothy i.e."
X Link 2024-11-26T07:23Z [----] followers, 26.3K engagements
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