# ![@Kevin_AGraham Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1400813693571538944.png) @Kevin_AGraham Kevin Graham

Kevin Graham posts on X about $peyto, $pey, gas, $tou the most. They currently have [-------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1400813693571538944/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1400813693571538944/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [------] -16%
- [--] Month [-------] +26%
- [--] Months [-------] +51%
- [--] Year [---------] -30%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1400813693571538944/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1400813693571538944/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -25%
- [--] Month [--] -21%
- [--] Months [---] +95%
- [--] Year [---] +12%

### Followers: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1400813693571538944/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1400813693571538944/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] -0.03%
- [--] Month [-----] +5.10%
- [--] Months [-----] +15%
- [--] Year [-----] +31%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1400813693571538944/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1400813693571538944/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [countries](/list/countries)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)  [fashion brands](/list/fashion-brands)  [social networks](/list/social-networks) 

**Social topic influence**
[$peyto](/topic/$peyto) #3, [$pey](/topic/$pey), [gas](/topic/gas), [$tou](/topic/$tou), [$bir](/topic/$bir), [$touto](/topic/$touto) #7, [$su](/topic/$su) #31, [debt](/topic/debt), [$bte](/topic/$bte), [money](/topic/money)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@bubleqe](/creator/undefined) [@assettraveller](/creator/undefined) [@energyinvest0r](/creator/undefined) [@nuggetcapital](/creator/undefined) [@garquake](/creator/undefined) [@trendbullish](/creator/undefined) [@vanisleinvestor](/creator/undefined) [@emmpeethree](/creator/undefined) [@rockcreekfreak](/creator/undefined) [@gugo907](/creator/undefined) [@mythmakrr](/creator/undefined) [@razoroil](/creator/undefined) [@wtibull](/creator/undefined) [@bb19043](/creator/undefined) [@michael71718318](/creator/undefined) [@kevinagraham](/creator/undefined) [@stevewps](/creator/undefined) [@westpine613](/creator/undefined) [@couldbemistaken](/creator/undefined) [@cdnengyanalysis](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Suncor Energy, Inc. (SU)](/topic/$su) [Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE)](/topic/$bte) [Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)](/topic/$cnq) [Accelerant Holdings (ARX)](/topic/$arx) [Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)](/topic/$cve) [Imperial Oil Limited (IMO)](/topic/$imo) [Veren Inc. (VRN)](/topic/$vrn) [Scroll (SCR)](/topic/$scr) [VeChain (VET)](/topic/$vet) [Crane Holdings, Co. (CR)](/topic/$cr) [Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. (MEG)](/topic/$meg) [PARSIQ (PRQ)](/topic/$prq) [Aethir (ATH)](/topic/$ath) [Nova Minerals Limited (NVA)](/topic/$nva) [Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (BRK.B)](/topic/$brkb) [Exxon Mobil (XOM)](/topic/$xom) [Copiosa Coin (COP2)](/topic/$cop) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/$msft) [CRESCENT POINT ENERGY CORP. (CPG)](/topic/$cpg) [Joystream (JOY)](/topic/$joy) [Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU)](/topic/$lulu) [Oxygen (OXY)](/topic/$oxy) [Coca-Cola Co (KO)](/topic/$ko) [Diamondback Energy Inc (FANG)](/topic/$fang)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Was looking at $VET.to hedges and found this. 🤔 (Don Gray quality) They are 60% hedged on EU gas with collars between $20-$23/mmbtu only leaving $17/mmbtu on the table. How do you say hedging losses in French 😂 #com"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1519120902608281600)  2022-04-27T01:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Meb Faber has three Shareholder Yield ETFs and a great book that backtests the strategies. His foreign yield fund $FYLD currently holds a a bunch of Canadian E&Ps $CNQ $IMO $SU. His Tail Risk ETF $TAIL is also a decent hedge for registered accounts Original research piece: https://t.co/6RG12t2Fuu Original research piece: https://t.co/6RG12t2Fuu"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1567305319348305920)  2022-09-07T00:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"But commodity prices today are a lot lower than in Q3 [----]. So let's look at $75 WTI & $4 AECO This is what a shareholder would earn today buying at current prices. What you pay (valuation) & what the company can earn at lower prices has a big impact on your return. 2/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1611238163623690240)  2023-01-06T05:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"At this point I'll likely be getting some hate mail that's ok. So what causes this big divergence Costs Here are the breakeven costs for the gas names. At these prices I estimate each company will earn zero profit using a Q3 normalized income statement. 3/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1611238165930545153)  2023-01-06T05:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Some meaningful NAVPS upgrades this week from RBC. $PEY.to finally getting recognition up 39%. They know what's coming this year.😉 $CR.to $KEL.to & $TVE.to also up. Let's go🚀🚀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1649910583980900354)  2023-04-22T22:58Z [----] followers, 12.2K engagements


"Yesterday we looked at the gassy E&Ps. Today lets look at the oily E&P names. Yes $VET.to has huge upside looking at proved producing reserve compared to its peers. 1/x @Kevin_AGraham Great breakdown on comp techniques. Where would VET fall in this list @Kevin_AGraham Great breakdown on comp techniques. Where would VET fall in this list"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1651633355648114689)  2023-04-27T17:04Z [----] followers, 31.1K engagements


"Zooming out to include total proven reserves the average company is selling for 70% of NAV. Here $BNE.to stands out relative to the rest for upside. The dividend payers $CJ.to and $GXE.to get a slight premium relative to the others. 2/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1651633358303002626)  2023-04-27T17:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Looking at proven & probable reserves $VET.to still clearly undervalued relative to its peers. $ATH.to $WCP.to $CPG.to $POU.to & $CNRL all have the same relative valuation. The $BTE.to premium makes no sense IMO. 3/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1651633359951470607)  2023-04-27T17:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"If we add in the volatile Stock Based Comp $BIR is right up there in terms of costs. Don't worry if your $BIR (or $BNE) stock tanks and the SBC is ZERO everyone will still be well paid. /2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1657559350150414336)  2023-05-14T01:31Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I think our Brother in Christ @WTIBull should explain why he's trying to deceive people. /end"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1657559360271253504)  2023-05-14T01:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"As promised. FCF yields using flat unhedged prices for all. It wouldn't be pretty but at least Peyto's dividend yield is covered. Note: Flat pricing for $TOU isn't fair due to marketing deals. Now back to the scheduled Mother's Day Festivities So in plain English $Pey.to has a 12% FCF yield at FLAT $2.35/mcf HH prices. When I get home Im going to run the economics for every gas company & report whos not sustainable (& losing money). https://t.co/WnETb9d6BU So in plain English $Pey.to has a 12% FCF yield at FLAT $2.35/mcf HH prices. When I get home Im going to run the economics for every gas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1657858243073384449)  2023-05-14T21:19Z [----] followers, 17.2K engagements


"@PSworldwide13 $VET.to $TVE.to & top pick $KEL.to All can easily double from here at $85-90 & strip nat gas. Stick to the highlighted names. $PIPE & $BIR had reserve write-downs $BTE & $SGY non investment grade H/t @Gugo907"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1659393401471619073)  2023-05-19T02:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@BDEPardell @cckanaan @PSworldwide13 @Gugo907 Maybe $VET also had netbacks that were std deviation above everyone else last year. Thats a lot of capital they can destroy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1659409891595804677)  2023-05-19T04:05Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@SteveWps @ColinCa92604304 @BDEPardell @cckanaan @PSworldwide13 @Gugo907 💯 People were falling over $VET at $35 but at $16 its a hard sell. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. Everybodys got a price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1659549902286757890)  2023-05-19T13:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@StealthQE4 Nothing The world doesnt end in a recession. People still eat sleep and go to movies. In [----] I was buying $KFT $JNJ & $WMT at 10x EPS. If needed make large discretionary purchases like vehicles or equipment. I got 1/3rd off MSRP for a truck in late [----]. Buyers market"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1659975310408916993)  2023-05-20T17:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ValueNotDeadYet While true the counter is that buying the right companies at nearly any P/E mult turn out to be a decent investment. Investors who bought $AMZN at [---] P/E in [----] have still earned 14% pa. Not bad"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1661686243971723265)  2023-05-25T10:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@KeflonDon @MPelletierCIO $NVDA will be an epic short at some point"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1663250801790156818)  2023-05-29T18:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"👀 What I like most about this slide isnt that $Pey.to will realize 85% premium to AECO in Q3. Its that they will realize a 50% premium to AECO for FY [----]. #hedging #cascade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1663756140566413312)  2023-05-31T03:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@RealPeterLinder Peter this is based on the strip as of May 2nd. What does whatever unknown reasons and of course very unlikely even mean I dont deal in the esoteric. Now why dont we start with strip assumptions take smaller steps & stay away from the the gas goes parabolic thinking"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1663767440008830981)  2023-05-31T04:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@ValueNotDeadYet Been following too. $MOS and $NTR look attractive but Id watch for a bit theyre still in free fall"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1666305009992990720)  2023-06-07T04:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Shocker inflation peaked last June & is now at 3.4% Is inflation still sticky @ValueNotDeadYet Inflation peaked last June it will be substantially lower next year. It is sticky until its not anymore. Current costs are being worked off and downward pressure will start in q1 & q2. Anyone familiar with inventory cycles and corporate pricing models will get this. @ValueNotDeadYet Inflation peaked last June it will be substantially lower next year. It is sticky until its not anymore. Current costs are being worked off and downward pressure will start in q1 & q2. Anyone familiar with inventory"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1673694354047631360)  2023-06-27T14:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Short $BIR.to long any gas peer is still an excellent market neutral strategy. Even at $4 gas its valuation is the same as $TOU.to 😂 In my younger days Id lever hard into that trade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1677336716665864193)  2023-07-07T15:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@WTIBull Are you a serious person or are you just blind to your bias Lets be honest we know why showed up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1677345857245519872)  2023-07-07T15:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@CouldBeMistaken @emmpeethree @gubbeen1 Nobody reads the IPCC. Theyve never made crazy apocalyptic claims that many people believe in. The former Obama energy secretary has been saying this for years. Its a cult & if youre not a believer theyll shun you like a heretic. Welcome to the post modern world"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1677943133760548866)  2023-07-09T07:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@gubbeen1 Very rare. Overstated reserves is far more common. Look at $PIPE & $BIR last year. Both write downs. Where are the write ups"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1679685245870694401)  2023-07-14T02:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Higher inflation in QC BC and SK. AB comes in at 1.9% among the lowest in Canada"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1681301944223281153)  2023-07-18T13:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"This is an insightful post & important history lesson. As someone who has followed & invested in $MSFT since [----] investor narratives & stories drive multiples more so than s/d but are related. Let me explain 1/x 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1682370145103015937)  2023-07-24T01:06Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Back in the peak of the [----] dot com bubble $MSFT sold for $60/share (post split) & a valuation of 60-70x P/E These were good times. 2/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1682370155475619840)  2023-07-21T12:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I remember buying the stock around [----] for 10x earnings & getting laughed out of the room by fellow investors. They looked at the stock price & said $MSFT is a dinosaur Been dead money for [--] years $AAPL will eat their lunch Dont have a smartphone 5/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1682370179014045696)  2023-07-21T13:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"I would explain the underlying business of $MSFT has steadily grown every year if you looked under the hood. Didnt matter. Seeking alpha & other value investor groups I knew laughed me out of the room. They just looked at the stock price & believed a story 6/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1682370199389863936)  2023-07-21T13:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"And Im not kidding when I say that most investors thought $MSFT was going out of business back then. They did. So be careful when others tell you stories about a stock. The narrative around stocks drives the short term prices but the business value drives the LT value. 7/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1682370207371649025)  2023-07-21T13:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"So investors like $MSFT today Good for them. Too rich for this value investor. I own stocks today that people like to mock but offer compelling relative valuations. So Ill wait & history will repeat itself always does. 8/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1682370221883940866)  2023-07-21T13:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BubleQe @Chevron @exxonmobil @Shell @conocophillips @bp_plc @Cheniere @TourmalineOil @arcresources @Enbridge @TCEnergy @PembinaPipeline $AR is already selling [--] bcf/d of LNG. $LNG is just a roll booth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1683322087090409472)  2023-07-30T19:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BubleQe @Chevron @exxonmobil @Shell @conocophillips @bp_plc @Cheniere @TourmalineOil @arcresources @Enbridge @TCEnergy @PembinaPipeline $SWN is already selling [---] bcf/d too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1683322594672488449)  2023-07-31T19:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BubleQe @Chevron @exxonmobil @Shell @conocophillips @bp_plc @Cheniere @TourmalineOil @arcresources @Enbridge @TCEnergy @PembinaPipeline Excellent read & bookmark. Especially liked this slide. The only solution to international coal is nat gas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1683333614077898752)  2023-07-30T22:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@WTIBull Market reaction when $BIR reports upcoming Q2 loss"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1683689758076162048)  2023-07-25T04:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DrJ2842 Seriously Myocarditis in 18-22 Yr kill [----] per year Nope Funny how myocarditis/pericarditis was not even a consideration for young athletic men before this year. Fact: mRNA-caused myocarditis has killed far more young men than @CDCgov or the media admit. I am not making this up or guessing the data come from peer-reviewed studies (rarely from the US since US doctors won't do them). Note that "hundreds" is a VERY conservative estimate https://t.co/BZhOn2tjOW Fact: mRNA-caused myocarditis has killed far more young men than @CDCgov or the media admit. I am not making this up or"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1684197676995297280)  2023-07-26T13:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@cjquaschnick @ysteve747 Agreed. They own a irreplaceable network of toll booths with a fixed return on capital. Interest rates are also about to turn from a headwind into a tailwind"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1686800297123868696)  2023-08-02T18:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Good morning $CVX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1687507545819160579)  2023-08-04T16:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@AssetTraveller Yup thats a clean break Should sell my $BRK.b"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1687623453145448448)  2023-08-05T00:41Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"With $2b from $CVX & $OXY Warren Buffett will make $6.2 Billion from dividend income this year. These [--] stocks pay him a majority of it: Warren Buffett will make $6.2 Billion from dividend income this year. These [--] stocks pay him a majority of it:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1687844962602520576)  2023-08-05T15:16Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@ysteve747 That is a beautiful truck. Me want one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1688409241952858112)  2023-08-07T04:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Berkshire will be the largest company in the world someday. I rarely critique Buffett but I think he should sell some $AAPL here. At 16% of assets its too large for this shareholder. 🍻"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1688664616983805952)  2023-08-07T21:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@mythmakrr @Mackslann If $pey.to was valued at a similar percent of proven reserves of any gas peer it would sell for $20. Few likely know this but it used to sell for a higher EV/EBITDA than TOU. Debt got them into trouble in [----] and they have never recovered"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1689469087314051072)  2023-08-10T02:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Michael71718318 Steady as she borrows $89.5m on the revolver in [--] months. Keep in mind they are unhedged. Why not take the good forward prices off the table"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1689993743921758208)  2023-08-11T13:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@RobertBaker25 @Michael71718318 What they fail to tell you: CF from Ops $62.4m Borrowed $89.5 net With that they spent: $64.8m on capex Bought back $9m in shares (net) Paid $53.2m in dividends Remainder into working capital CF didnt even cover Capex 🤷♂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1690065680920350721)  2023-08-11T18:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@mythmakrr @KramerKarma1 @BubleQe @sohaibab9 @econ_713 @Josh_Young_1 @AlexVergeJOY Net income for any company. Now net income can vary quarter to quarter depending on accounting treatment however over the long term it is the cash left over after paying all expense or profits that an owner can take out of the company. Accounting is a closed system"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1690175189831843840)  2023-08-12T01:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@AssetTraveller @ShaziGoalie My bro in the greater Vancouver area reports this is happening to his employees too. Home owner likely wont sell but theyll replace you with a higher paying tenant. Their interest rate just reset & they have to pay more so they pass it along"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1690476556483780609)  2023-08-12T21:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Are energy stocks the best hedge against inflation 🤔"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1690481415324835840)  2023-08-12T21:52Z [----] followers, 14.8K engagements


"@StevenL39019486 @AssetTraveller @ShaziGoalie Yup. Can you even hear yourself So is the opposite true Years of higher taxes & higher interest rates will somehow make housing affordable Who are you kidding"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1690835061950578690)  2023-08-13T21:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"On vacation this summer I had this thought experiment (see below). A 🧵 It's based on the engineering principle of a control volume. Basically a control volume is a box you put around anything & you measure what comes in and what goes out. That is a control volume. 1/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1691290494888816640)  2023-08-15T03:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"So if we put a control volume around the entire world and measure the output of CO2 (emissions) and the natural sequestration (plant life) the net difference would be excess CO2 causing rising CO2 levels which cause "climate change" 2/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1691290505366081536)  2023-08-15T03:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"From what I understand the percentage of CO2 has risen from 0.03% to 0.04% over the past few decades. From a control volume perspective the vast majority of emissions have to be sequestered via natural processes since it does not rise at a proportional rate. 3/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1691290507513610240)  2023-08-15T03:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@DrJ2842 Im not talking about closed systems. Its a principle to think/model the world. Engineers use it all the time. In static (Civil) problems but far more often in dynamic (Mechanical) problems. The world isnt entirely predictable but is within ranges. Think airplane"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1691459733591658496)  2023-08-15T14:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"At this point all Pierre has to do is loop this video & the election is in the bag"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1692502825014894837)  2023-08-18T11:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Dare to Dream Power is $4750/MWh in TX. If that happens in AB $PEY.to would realize $330/GJ or $20m/day for their #Cascade gas. 🙏 @Mackslann @AssetTraveller @EnergyInvest0r"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1692535647695667404)  2023-08-18T13:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DrJ2842 @PeterHRatcliffe I am familiar. 50-66% of fires are started by humans. I would argue this year is prob even higher for several reasons. Why was there virtually no fires in [----] Like [--] 🤔 You always start with climate change instead of the much simpler/straightforward explanation. Occams razor"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1692911685944676796)  2023-08-19T14:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"This chart excites me. $KEG.un 7.5% yield. [--] week low. Anyone own the name/current thoughts @BubleQe @AssetTraveller @ValueNotDeadYet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1692923312161083777)  2023-08-19T15:35Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Warren Buffett turns [--] today When I was [--] I read every book on investing in the Calgary public library and discovered Buffett. Im grateful for his wit wisdom & timeless value investing principles. 🎂 🥳 🎉"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1696863760483553504)  2023-08-30T12:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"The deal amounts to 6% dilution with 23% boost to production but huge long term growth potential. Clear runway to [------] boe/d IMO 5/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1699534455809921242)  2023-09-06T21:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"A lot of very economic inventory just added to the mix. Peyto's sandbox just got a lot bigger. /end"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1699534457831596443)  2023-09-06T21:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$PD is buying $CWC Looks like the M&A damn has broken"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1699744235673600509)  2023-09-07T11:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Can someone explain why Communist China has rocketed ahead of Democratic India in economic growth once China embraced free markets in the late 1980s Both countries have the approx the same population"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1699773194159128721)  2023-09-07T13:14Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@AllthingsLNG Except that argument doesnt work even with a [--] year head start. Their current growth is anemic compared to China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1699878545927889024)  2023-09-07T20:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@emmpeethree Disappointed with the lack of a dividend hike and complaining about financial leverage makes zero sense. Which is it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1699971745393115461)  2023-09-08T02:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"90% of people in SK agree with the governments new policy on parental rights. Yet Allison Bamford claims its controversial. Legacy media is dead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1700264115795792255)  2023-09-08T21:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@MacCullochChris @CGenxer @emmpeethree Fair but you dont see the contradiction. Pick a lane. Where are the analysts showing cumulative value creation/destr for the past [--] yrs Where are the analysts calling for $BIR to cut dividend & stop levering up to pay it Thats right its about what youre paid to do"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1700467164094849403)  2023-09-09T11:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"IF you are an oil bull & own a company with no debt you should be demanding they lever up as high as possible because that is how shareholders make the most money at $90 WTI. Doing the opposite makes the shareholders the least amount of money. Is this a controversial take"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1700504727262310492)  2023-09-09T13:41Z [----] followers, 19K engagements


"@Mackslann @BeegJj I love $PEY day"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1702485768189456510)  2023-09-15T00:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@biglunks @BubleQe No but I know who they are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1702506061033619608)  2023-09-15T02:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Just got a retweet from the $pipe board. Shareholders can really screw themselves over by voting against this deal. Should be entertaining"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1703611144550949252)  2023-09-18T03:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Seriously Everyone on Twitter handily beats the market (& sells a newsletter)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1703748344047370736)  2023-09-18T12:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@petroquestions @emmpeethree Conflict of interest Follow the money. Just look at all the analysts fawning over $BIR. They have a largely debt funded dividend yet no-one calls them out & most rate them a buy. But the vultures are always circling looking for a piece of the action. 😉"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1704114006469103925)  2023-09-19T12:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@StephenKalil @Gugo907 Not the same thing. A balance sheet measures the historical costs of acquiring and developing production. A reserve report is an estimate of the actual value of said money spent developing production. A company may be worth more than book cost (profit) or less than books cost"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1706050043512566024)  2023-09-24T20:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@spybear180 @NuggetCapital True but investing on a hope and a prayer for high commodity prices isnt a strategy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1706133736977306016)  2023-09-25T02:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BubleQe @StockTrades_CA @AssetTraveller Dan - good question. First of all when they raised the dividend this was the context. The forward strip was $4/mmbtu. January ended up being very warm & nat gas prices plummeted in q1 this year. 1/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1707182106558779679)  2023-09-27T23:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BubleQe @StockTrades_CA @AssetTraveller But thanks to Peytos methodical hedging program they were well protected for [----]. In [----] they realized $4.08/mcf & that resulted in approx $0.60/sh in additional CF per sh. This is important & come back to this later. 2/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1707183381195194519)  2023-09-28T00:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BubleQe @StockTrades_CA @AssetTraveller So 1) if we use [----] as our guide they will have $1/share more CF at hedged prices/strip. 2) Cascade power will give them $10/GJ prices on 8% of their gas. 3) They just bought Repsol. The deal will increase prod/shr by 15% next year. All else equal this is 15% more CF 5/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1707186806049947701)  2023-09-28T00:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BubleQe @StockTrades_CA @AssetTraveller TLDR: looking forward the dividend is well covered & thus the market is waking up to that reality. I also expect further dividend increases in [----]. DYODD Cheers 🍻 /end"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1707187218610065719)  2023-09-28T00:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@luanne_metz Wrong this isnt a power play where someone makes a decision. Look at the research. Bonnie Henry was the expert witness in the ON nurses case. Her expert report Masking doesnt work"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1708479701524615646)  2023-10-01T13:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Trudeau was in Saskatoon Friday night. Someone at the hotel was talking to his security detail. One guy said hes a total narcissist but its a well paid job. No surprises here👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1708650391704142249)  2023-10-02T01:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"While everyone is upset over WTI falling below $90 #natty quietly crosses the [--] handle. Winter is coming 😊"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1709556386785374249)  2023-10-04T13:09Z [----] followers, 13K engagements


"@CdnEngyAnalysis $BIR has a debt funded dividend do they think investors are stupid Sorry its not similar yielding. $PNE was among the most overvalued stocks in the summer. See below Just for comparisons sake $PEY PDP & 2P NAVs are $18.47/sh & $42.86/sh. The outperformance is just beginning $PNE.to sells for a 61% premium to proven reserves and 32% to 2P. Not sure if any other company in the energy space sells for higher. NAV acts like gravity. https://t.co/qqmyMRot4q $PNE.to sells for a 61% premium to proven reserves and 32% to 2P. Not sure if any other company in the energy space sells for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1709780991370539117)  2023-10-05T04:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@jim_duffus CVE should buy MEG CPG has a good thing going. I wouldnt bother. WCP is a serial acquirer. Prob a smaller NG name would be more likely"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1710148291554685243)  2023-10-06T04:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@ShooterCoal Quickbooks It wont help with CF issues but its 10x better than other software. Invoicing payroll taxes super intuitive. Great mobile app. Makes it easy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1710661582596776017)  2023-10-07T14:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@dominant_trade What kind of stupid comment is that So according to your logic northern Europe belong to the Vikings The past is the past & the Vikings dont own Scandinavia Germany Denmark & Newfoundland. Get a grip. When are the Jews getting their land back in the EU you anti semite"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1710875411465564574)  2023-10-08T04:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@GringoInvesting Patience Gringo Its crazy that some people think the economy can support these rates when it took life support before just the keep a pulse. Money supply is contracting inflation in check rates will fall"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1711035586004533683)  2023-10-08T15:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Westpine613 @Gugo907 He doesnt include them. They are the fourth best performing E&P this year behind ATH MEG and almost tied with KEL (total return). Watch them move into first over the next [--] months"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1713548423746490591)  2023-10-15T13:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$Pey.to taps the credit markets for $160m at 6.46% interest. 😯 Crazy good"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1714408688285266068)  2023-10-17T22:30Z [----] followers, 14.3K engagements


"@NuggetCapital Q3 [----] Conf Call"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1714441233446338669)  2023-10-18T00:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BubleQe West brick to Petrus. Hopefully both. Or they should merge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1715865838362763335)  2023-10-21T23:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@rockcreekfreak The overvalued names align with @NuggetCapital shorts. 🤔 Peyto is dirt cheap. Incorporating the Repsol deal I have them at 73% 38% & 27% of PDP 1P & 2P respectively. Given the base decline fell after the deal maintenance capital is lower FCF higher = Moar dividends"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1716297984076616040)  2023-10-23T03:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@DerAchsenZeit Car makers are realizing people dont want EVs they want a Tesla"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1717164891482591343)  2023-10-25T13:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"A new conservative voter is created every month when peoples mortgage rate gets renewed or their rent gets upped. The landslide will only get larger"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1718301608172216731)  2023-10-28T16:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This MP is giving carbon tax breaks to people living south of the 50th parallel & NOT those who live in more northern areas of BC AB & SK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1718384102825476311)  2023-10-28T21:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@JamieHeard5 Jamie how do you see this impacting hedging to smooth volatility in CFs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1719056712101954012)  2023-10-30T18:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Cedar LNG progressing. Target FID expected by year (or early 2024). 🚀 Courtesy $PPL @BubleQe @AssetTraveller @TeddyGambino"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1720437522793156762)  2023-11-03T13:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Not a bad quarter at $BRK They are going to make a fortune on their bond portfolio"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1720948108480196873)  2023-11-04T23:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@energyfundys A week of warm weather doesnt make a trend. YOY LNG exports have taken up all of the YOY prod increase. The picture isnt nearly as stark as you make it seem. The 24-48 month strip is up 5% this past month as a result"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1721194970948792626)  2023-11-05T15:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Unreal $PRQ now paying a 10% dividend (13% with the special div) and bought back shares at $1.48/sr in the quarter. Congrats to all who partake"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1722424343605522463)  2023-11-09T01:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Wow 25% of the $CPG shares didnt sell. Banks still sitting on $118m in stock. Bad timing but this might impact future deals. Hung deal leaves BMO RBC-led group with Crescent Point shares. Click on the image below to read more https://t.co/4Nn11HUVMr Hung deal leaves BMO RBC-led group with Crescent Point shares. Click on the image below to read more https://t.co/4Nn11HUVMr"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1723178469327090094)  2023-11-11T03:18Z [----] followers, 28.8K engagements


"This table looks good 👍. (Except $BIR should be below all at new level called dividend cut) My mental model for the high yield Canadian energy names right now is below. I'm happy to earn a few % less with midstream names like $KEY $GEI $SPB $PPL than risk a cut. I think most co's hold if prices stay where they are - look out below if prices fall. 🤷♂ https://t.co/FsZ2mLaLqJ My mental model for the high yield Canadian energy names right now is below. I'm happy to earn a few % less with midstream names like $KEY $GEI $SPB $PPL than risk a cut. I think most co's hold if prices stay where they"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1724950288723853577)  2023-11-16T00:39Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Rate hikes are done cuts in the new year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1725574281097040368)  2023-11-17T17:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@Spark2231 No. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. The US Fed monetized $6 trillion in 2020-2021. CPI lags money supply"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1725650865699139711)  2023-11-17T23:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"If this is true its time to go long the Argentine Peso. (for the first time in history)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1726414765872787793)  2023-11-20T01:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Wouldnt live in Winnipeg for a million dollars. Two million for Regina"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1728549904916603036)  2023-11-25T23:03Z [----] followers, 11.4K engagements


"Interesting marketing slide Diversified to lower revenue markets & theyre unhedged. CAPS LOCK ON $BIR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1729206585661198436)  2023-11-27T18:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@BubleQe PEY CNQ & TOU control the north CVE & Westbrick dominate the south"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1729694404825264238)  2023-11-29T02:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Systemic racism has become overt racism"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1729857340663300283)  2023-11-29T13:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@SteveWps Its hard to say. $BNS isnt the best operating bank out there. Also closing a bunch of branches. That said the price is getting attractive for sure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1729859715570507983)  2023-11-29T13:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@emmpeethree Yeah and affirmative action is racism. Read the US Supreme Court decision"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1729964234136527206)  2023-11-29T20:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Gugo907 Interesting the NYMEX tickers are $CLST2 (36m) & $CLST3 (48m) As per RBC:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1731445535838474642)  2023-12-03T22:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@SelfMadeMastery Was [---]. Just fell to [---] because Im a credit risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1731823426656940508)  2023-12-04T23:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Not here to dump on $Arx shareholders but there is relative value out there. Price ( $Pey.to vs $Arx.to) $12.22/sh vs $21.42/sh [----] CFPS $4.50/sh vs $4.00/sh (as per RBC) Maint Capex $1.65/sh vs $3.00/shr FCF $2.85/sh vs $1.00/sh FCF yield (above maint capex) 23% vs 5%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1732023379387896207)  2023-12-05T13:05Z [----] followers, 12.5K engagements


"@roicmatters I didnt apply any multiple. But go ahead and use the 2025E CF numbers from RBC numbers if youd like. Let me know what you come up with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1732199123107934693)  2023-12-06T00:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@WTIBull When is $BIR going to cut its dividend Theyre adding debt to pay it too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1733992860775563753)  2023-12-10T23:31Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@WTIBull @EnergyInvest0r Oh cmom dont make me do this WTIbulls track record: ✅ Pumps $BIR a year ago - second worst performer in [----] ✅ Continually bashes $ATH - the top performing stock in [----] ✅ Said $PEY is at risk of dividend cut ✅ Bashes shitcos yet personally loses big in one this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1734218587743674841)  2023-12-11T14:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@rockcreekfreak @nrg_invest I have a newer version. Peters did an update this fall. Whose decline are you looking for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1734730404882485373)  2023-12-13T00:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@nrg_invest @rockcreekfreak This is from Peter's a fews weeks ago. Peyto's has dropped to 25%. That combined with improved capital efficiency means lower maint capex going forward despite a 23% higher production. @DerAchsenZeit sorry no ITE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1734972512637682076)  2023-12-13T16:24Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"45 days to Cascade startup. In this gas environment it cant come soon enough"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1735443998213365816)  2023-12-14T23:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Can she curtail the gas producers already"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1735456157639045479)  2023-12-15T00:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I know guys who would have paid the govt to hunt these deer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1738255448363413879)  2023-12-22T17:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Merry Christmas this fine winter morning Time to make a rink"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1738605606095724656)  2023-12-23T17:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@RBC_JMiddleton @MelanieOMiddz Good times. Happy New Year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1741168354310738003)  2023-12-30T18:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@EnergyInvest0r @jorge_moj Yup. I was looking at FCFs using strip via RBC yesterday its not as rosy. Maybe Ill post some highlights later"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741461484360597917)  2023-12-31T14:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Robertmeiday @NuggetCapital A good balance sheet buys time but some producers cant replace what theyll produce in [----] with CF. 😬 Are investors going to stick around for zero return of capital plans Good news is demand wave is coming. Patient investors will be rewarded IMO🍻"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741616666675405097)  2024-01-01T00:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Happy New Year 🥳🎉 So how do [----] valuations look heading into the new year A🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741888365559996443)  2024-01-01T18:25Z [----] followers, 18.1K engagements


"Using RBC [----] CF & CAPEX estimates here are [----] FCF Yields. FCF is a decent approximation for earnings if production is maintained. 2/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741888367170637918)  2024-01-01T18:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"As I've said before FCF is distorted by those spending more than maint capex to grow production. Adjusting for growth capex the average "True" FCF yield is 12.9%. 3/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1741888369100001668)  2024-01-01T18:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"This get a little more interesting if you look at just the nat gas names. $PEY.to's hedges proving very valuable. It also means their 11% dividend is 2x covered. $BIR's dividend is 65% of projected CF & at high risk of being cut. 4/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1741888370815418620)  2024-01-01T18:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Looking at oil names the average is 19%. $SCR with a low corp decline of 18% will see big growth in [----]. Oil names really don't get much love by the market. 5/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1741888372811935858)  2024-01-01T18:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Here is the RBC CF data using strip pricing. 6/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1741888374430990721)  2024-01-01T18:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"WTI futures are $72 & $70/bbl for 2024/2025 HH Futures are $2.74 & $ 3.58/mmbtu for 2024/2025 Low natty prices are expected to be temporary. 7/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1741888376406503550)  2024-01-01T18:25Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Happy New Year & may [----] be prosperous to all. My top energy picks remain $PEY $SU & $PRQ. Wishes for 2024: - $GXE sell early in the new year - TMX actually gets completed - LNG Canada startup in Q4 Your predictions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741888386586017909)  2024-01-01T18:25Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@Rytetz29 @BubleQe Sorry bud. No RBC data. Good luck with $SGY. Personally I would never invest based on mgmts history"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1741906895516909630)  2024-01-01T19:39Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"2023 return = 4.4% [--] Yr = 18.5% Accountability & intellectual honesty are key to achieving long term investment success. Don't worry about others. Stick to your knitting. Investing is a marathon not a sprint. Cheers to a healthy & prosperous 2024🥂🍻 #valueinvesting #COM [----] return = 37.2% [--] Yr = 19.6% pa Sometimes I wonder if Im doing this right. Lots of different viewpoints out there. I find it best to turn off the noise & stick with what you know. Wishing you a healthy & prosperous 2023🥂🍻 #valueinvesting #COM https://t.co/riXc45k5mA [----] return = 37.2% [--] Yr = 19.6% pa Sometimes I"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742005952532947105)  2024-01-02T02:12Z [----] followers, 63.4K engagements


"Overall I'm pleased with this result. It was a difficult time for value investing. Three largest positions (in order) are $BRK.b $SU & $PEY. All three grew their businesses & generated excess FCF. Energy still represents good value for [----] IMO How did you do in 2023"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1742009168049897517)  2024-01-02T02:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Rick is laser focused on 🏆 Kruger closing remarks on Q3 [----] earnings call: https://t.co/u0QA9OI8FL Kruger closing remarks on Q3 [----] earnings call: https://t.co/u0QA9OI8FL"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742582263798182226)  2024-01-03T16:22Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"New Year New Hedges Q1 [----] $Pey.to is realizing $4.53 on most of their gas Cascade startup is about [--] weeks away 🚀 🚀 🚀 AECO: $2.45 CAD/GJ Station 2: $1.85 CAD/GJ Yes you read that right. AECO is above $2 AECO: $2.45 CAD/GJ Station 2: $1.85 CAD/GJ Yes you read that right. AECO is above $2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1743241898066604446)  2024-01-05T12:03Z [----] followers, 11.7K engagements


"@RealCrutchfield Yes. Peyto is supplying [--] GJ/d direct connect. Cutbank Dawson owned by Mitsubishi is supplying the other half"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1743328429095747837)  2024-01-05T17:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@VanIsleInvestor 💯 My bro has employees in Vancouver making $80-90k per year and they cant make ends meet. Housing interest rates & rent hikes are killing the working class"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1743768600891023603)  2024-01-06T22:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@WTIBull @CdnEngyAnalysis @crudechronicle Interesting What about $BIR RBC doesnt even have them turning a profit this year 🤡 When will Birchcliff slash their debt funded dividend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1744009772356010413)  2024-01-07T14:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@RyanRMooney Dont they have 200-300% IRR wells to drill like everyone E&P boasts about in their corp PPT 😂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1744787367943114982)  2024-01-09T18:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@thomasg_grizzle What the NPV of a company with declining CFs With demand headwinds production increases further decline prices. If a company has limited growth prospects dont expect a huge multiple"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1744790135223333195)  2024-01-09T18:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@rockcreekfreak @NuggetCapital @C_Barraud @DeItaone @Sino_Market Interesting traders see the opposite after the PPI data today. Odds of a rate cut went up in March despite what Barclays says"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1745948509675700704)  2024-01-12T23:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Just a reminder as you freeze this weekend Trudeau will collect record carbon taxes Spotted in Thunder Bay https://t.co/TO1pRu2XuR Spotted in Thunder Bay https://t.co/TO1pRu2XuR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1746174716509888858)  2024-01-13T14:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Ive created AI algorithms that automated tasks that people used to do. Ill tell you a secret if you automate yourself out of your job your boss will instantly find you another. Are you worried that AI will eventually take your job Are you worried that AI will eventually take your job"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1746179665947975952)  2024-01-13T14:37Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@o2farms_sk @CRToney2 Yeah theyre maximizing profits by shutting down when power is selling for $1000/MWh At this moment 94% of Alberta's electricity is being produced by fossil fuels. Wind is at 2.9% of capacity and producing 1.2% of total generation while solar is at 0.1% of capacity and producing 0.01% of total generation. At the same time we are importing [---] MW or 3% https://t.co/NY9F1BBckH At this moment 94% of Alberta's electricity is being produced by fossil fuels. Wind is at 2.9% of capacity and producing 1.2% of total generation while solar is at 0.1% of capacity and producing 0.01%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1746655663390965969)  2024-01-14T22:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Gary79699215 That 3x higher than $WMT or $COST"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1746675841348555024)  2024-01-14T23:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Not a housing bubble 😂 Why are homes so expensive in Canada https://t.co/T9lVcwfwWm Why are homes so expensive in Canada https://t.co/T9lVcwfwWm"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1747422978994823507)  2024-01-17T00:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@BubleQe @AssetTraveller @EnergyInvest0r One year ago this was posted on a substack of a self proclaimed expert. For a guy who beats up on a lot of stocks he definitely gives $BIR a pass"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1747746788642320708)  2024-01-17T22:24Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"RBC CEO: - 20% of mortgages are variable rate - 30% of fixed rate have rolled over and payments up 20-25%. - slowing faster than - will see technical soft landing recession in Q1 More payment shock coming. - RBC CEO McKay https://t.co/awNiO9IMp8 More payment shock coming. - RBC CEO McKay https://t.co/awNiO9IMp8"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1747774565793538329)  2024-01-18T00:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"$Pey.to doesnt just have low cash costs they have ultra low cash costs. How much less Approx $1.34/mcf ($8/boe) on average over last [--] years. ( $Pey.to = Peer [--] ) Now lets get to frugalism. 2nd lowest cash costs in a [--] peer group. Excellent. (Low) Cash Costs is one of the many reasons I respect $PEY.TO (and $TOU.TO) so much putting your hard earned investment money to work not frittering it away. Add all these variables together. https://t.co/E88guWr7Dj Now lets get to frugalism. 2nd lowest cash costs in a [--] peer group. Excellent. (Low) Cash Costs is one of the many reasons I respect"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1747778095124217902)  2024-01-18T00:29Z [----] followers, 18.3K engagements


"@jim_duffus @hahaboohaha @Gugo907 Peyto cant afford their dividend What a 🤡 Capex is $475m/yr or $2.46/shr As per RBC there is unallocated CF of $2.16/shr in [----] & $2.82/shr in [----] to pay $1.32/shr in dividends (AT STRIP)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1747805865254506556)  2024-01-18T02:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"If $Pey.to hedging gains are $140.6m in [----] that is BULLISH RBC has them doing $891m in CF 👇 Thus unhedged it would be $750m in CF or $3.88/shr Subtracting capex of $2.46/shr unallocated CF is $1.42/shr The $1.32/shr dividend is covered in this crappy environment ✅ $PEY.TO [----] gas hedges #oott https://t.co/dzdC73NnB9 $PEY.TO [----] gas hedges #oott https://t.co/dzdC73NnB9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1747832424459903049)  2024-01-18T04:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Great comment by Shell on the future for Canadian LNG projects. Strong demand forecast for decades to come ✅ Nice article from the team at @BOEReport Bravo Canada #CanadianLNG (and Shell of course but that's a given) :) #LNG #NaturalGas https://t.co/a0khrr3qBR Nice article from the team at @BOEReport Bravo Canada #CanadianLNG (and Shell of course but that's a given) :) #LNG #NaturalGas https://t.co/a0khrr3qBR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1747975282844213254)  2024-01-18T13:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"🔥 🔥 🔥 Power burn #natgas https://t.co/9PHrOExoo4 Power burn #natgas https://t.co/9PHrOExoo4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1748129338833219604)  2024-01-18T23:44Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@NotFreeCashFlow @EnergyInvest0r @JunkBrandon1 @z_or_zee @Michael71718318 @BubleQe @AssetTraveller Read the last sentence under our view"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1748140644676042873)  2024-01-19T00:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BubleQe @plutusofcrete89 @AssetTraveller Oh were not to peak pessimism on $BIR yet. I was talking about NG prices. He seems to have given up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1748217976078192852)  2024-01-19T05:37Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BubleQe VIG is one smart cookie"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1748572858173804660)  2024-01-20T05:07Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@mineralstocks I wouldnt own $BIR even if someone gifted me shares. Much better options out there"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1748789730286661893)  2024-01-20T19:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@BubleQe @plutusofcrete89 @Michael71718318 @jimsigfusson @z_or_zee @AssetTraveller @EnergyInvest0r @AhmedBa44329064 There is value in $BIR but there are some major issues: 1) Bloated costs - theyre the worst. Ive commented on this go search 2) NAV is much lower than what reserves say. They juice near term production with imaginary FDC that CF cant fund 3) Mgmt thinks hope is a strategy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1748911782834413864)  2024-01-21T03:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@BubleQe @CouldBeMistaken @plutusofcrete89 @Michael71718318 @jimsigfusson @z_or_zee @AssetTraveller @EnergyInvest0r @AhmedBa44329064 And which [--] year plan Plans have been cut with every PR since Nov [----]. Remember [----] was supposed to be 82k boe/d on $265m in capex. Now they report [----] will come in at [----] boe/d on $305m in capex. Yeah that a HUGE miss. [----] is now 75.5k boe/d. Well see"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1748935796504121614)  2024-01-21T05:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Michael71718318 @BubleQe @CouldBeMistaken @plutusofcrete89 @jimsigfusson @z_or_zee @AssetTraveller @EnergyInvest0r @AhmedBa44329064 I think you TOTALLY missed my point. The problem is NOT commodity prices. $BIR projected a capital efficiency of $11900/flowing barrel in [----] It actually turned out to be $20300/flowing barrel in [----]. Mgmt needs to be responsible for what they can control"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1749066063159992817)  2024-01-21T13:47Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@MacWhackle The BOC doesnt target interest rates to cool the wealth effect or to bring home prices down They target inflation and full employment. That is their mandate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1749532455822885207)  2024-01-22T20:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@MacWhackle Why the insults bud Too committed to a specific narrative Inflation doesnt care if Im OK with it it just is. Its a function of money supply relative to the economy. M2 is still contracting see below. Now go on about your real levers & imaginary Mr. Inflation 🤡"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1749588366650409068)  2024-01-23T00:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@Tejanobrown How does gas get into the surface casing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1749596742734221450)  2024-01-23T00:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"🚨REMINDER FROM ONE YEAR AGO🚨 This is a profoundly bad take How bad $PEY has gone on to be the 3rd best performing E&P in over the past year (2nd in past 6mo) while $BIR is DEAD LAST. And yes $BIR did cut their divy 😂 Slaughtered 😂 Thanks for your subscription https://t.co/Ql44DQds0H https://t.co/Ql44DQds0H"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1752900119983247618)  2024-02-01T03:42Z [----] followers, 15.7K engagements


"First yes it is true that $TOU has more liquids than $PEY. In FY [----] $TOU had 22% liquids compared to $PEY at 13%. 2/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1754286813722616044)  2024-02-04T23:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"In [----] (a year with very high oil prices) WTI averaged $94.90/boe. AECO averaged $5.10/GJ in [----]. Because hedging is a one time benefit all analysis will be UNHEDGED. Below is the breakdown from [----] the last full year we have. 3/x Cash Netbacks Subtracting total costs from revenue yields how much cash a company generates per boe of production. Basically a range from between $30-40 last year. 2/x https://t.co/yiH1wCYCCK Cash Netbacks Subtracting total costs from revenue yields how much cash a company generates per boe of production. Basically a range from between $30-40 last year. 2/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1754286815576510554)  2024-02-04T23:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Looking just at $PEY & $TOU yes the wet gas of $TOU does earn a higher unhedged revenue. The next part of the equation is cash costs. Here $PEY is lower. The net difference is the cash netback. That is the amount they have to spend to replace the production sold. 4/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1754286821356318989)  2024-02-04T23:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Some will say [----] is a long time ago. Below is the [----] expected unhedged netback (revenue less costs) for both companies. (At strip pricing) $PEYs business will generate 24-28% more cash per BOE. *Remember* costs matter just as much as additional revenue from liquids. 5/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1754286852339556688)  2024-02-04T23:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"With the Cash Netback each company has to Find & Develop new resource. Both can easily do that. Now if Peyto can lower their F&D costs in [----] by 30% (as per pres report) they will have a material cost advantage. Note the yellow Cash Costs are taken from RBC estimates. 6/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1754286857754488990)  2024-02-04T23:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@JunkBrandon1 Two options: Hong Kong (Hang Seng)/Chinese dual listed👇 or just buy ETFs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1754630698709729674)  2024-02-05T22:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"Can someone please stop doing their job"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1754685446511071650)  2024-02-06T01:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Reading between the lines reserves should be strong with anticipated waterflood response. But will they take on debt to buyback shares when commodity prices drop Thats the only way to be opportunistic given their 9.5% div Gear Energy Ltd. announces completion of the strategic repositioning process and intention to commence normal course issuer bid https://t.co/PGBtmXOvHP Gear Energy Ltd. announces completion of the strategic repositioning process and intention to commence normal course issuer bid https://t.co/PGBtmXOvHP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1754866490791067787)  2024-02-06T13:55Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@gubbeen1 @chrisinmontreal The LT strip is still strong. Hedge [--] yr strip at $3.50 and make money. Instead $BIR hopes for what $4"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1754869815641088194)  2024-02-06T14:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"$PEY has a 17% & 24% FCF yield for 2024/25. Can a gas company outperform the entire energy space this year North American Intermediate E&P #WTI #Oil #NatGas Price Target & Yield $AAV $ATH $BTE $BIR $CRC $CPE $CJ $CHRD $CPG $CR $ESTE $ERF $HHRS $HWX $KEL $KEC $LOU $MTDR $MEG $NOG $NVA $OBE $POU $PEY $PR $SM $SCR $TVE $VET $WCP https://t.co/RqgONP4Agx North American Intermediate E&P #WTI #Oil #NatGas Price Target & Yield $AAV $ATH $BTE $BIR $CRC $CPE $CJ $CHRD $CPG $CR $ESTE $ERF $HHRS $HWX $KEL $KEC $LOU $MTDR $MEG $NOG $NVA $OBE $POU $PEY $PR $SM $SCR $TVE $VET $WCP https://t.co/RqgONP4Agx"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1755946443204882851)  2024-02-09T13:27Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"Buffett is always an idiot until hes not Unpopular view: Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway $BRK invested in the wrong oil company $OXY. In 1898majority interest of Imperial Oil $IMO sold to the Standard Oil group. ExxonMobil $XOM a descendent of Standard Oil still owns 69.6% of the shares in $IMO. #COM 🫡🪒 https://t.co/JY1OKGmLOv Unpopular view: Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway $BRK invested in the wrong oil company $OXY. In 1898majority interest of Imperial Oil $IMO sold to the Standard Oil group. ExxonMobil $XOM a descendent of Standard Oil still owns 69.6% of the shares in $IMO."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1756697003285758456)  2024-02-11T15:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"If we exit winter with full storage in will summer AECO go to zero Asking for a friend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1756811232424624489)  2024-02-11T22:43Z [----] followers, 13.6K engagements


"Lame excuse Demand must be weak Since most people dont love to buy cars in the middle of winter Tesla is offering a $1000 incentive to do so. This is the essential quandary of manufacturing: factories need continuous production for efficiency but consumer demand is seasonal. Since most people dont love to buy cars in the middle of winter Tesla is offering a $1000 incentive to do so. This is the essential quandary of manufacturing: factories need continuous production for efficiency but consumer demand is seasonal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1756835312884404718)  2024-02-12T00:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"When you were a man then you met Taylor Swift"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1756860061941424292)  2024-02-12T01:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"I hope NG goes to zero And Im not joking. @Mackslann This is the only number that matters. Over 10% more #natgas in storage vs last year. Couple weeks ago we were at 1% Weather. Not even production. We lost [---] hdds in a week when we were at the top. And followed with another [---] hdds drop week after. Weather. https://t.co/ruqqc2nxKM This is the only number that matters. Over 10% more #natgas in storage vs last year. Couple weeks ago we were at 1% Weather. Not even production. We lost [---] hdds in a week when we were at the top. And followed with another [---] hdds drop week after. Weather."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1757597146755506504)  2024-02-14T02:46Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@IlliniProgrammr @petroquestions You can calculate the delta of NPV of prices which is a proxy for the delta in NPV of reserves since YE. @petroquestions is right. The strip outside of 2024/2025 hasnt hardly moved at all. Youre being quite dramatic & only demonstrating why SEC reserve NPV is meaningless"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1758080345201598665)  2024-02-15T10:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@IlliniProgrammr @petroquestions What The balance sheet PP&E would be recorded at cost (less depn) it has nothing to do with PV10. Please explain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1758127364267991452)  2024-02-15T13:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@IlliniProgrammr @petroquestions I get that. You said that PP&E is recorded at PV10. They didnt take an impairment at YE. Look gas companies are reporting reserves & dont use the avg price of the last year. They use future CF at strip. How much were reserves down No asset write downs why AECO is $1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1758130712127869211)  2024-02-15T14:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@IlliniProgrammr @petroquestions Yes its called IFRS. Im well aware of the difference to GAAP which for the purposes of this conversation is negligible. You still didnt answer the question"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1758133529160962440)  2024-02-15T14:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@IlliniProgrammr @petroquestions The [--] mo HH strip is down 3.6% over the past month. Is that a LOT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1758145018835927098)  2024-02-15T15:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"@IlliniProgrammr @petroquestions And if were talking about asset impairment it is NOT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1758146251437093272)  2024-02-15T15:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"$Pey.to [----] reserves 🧵 Peyto always answers these [--] key questions every year. Lets dive in 1/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1759676291953938619)  2024-02-19T20:28Z [----] followers, 24.3K engagements


"Value Creation Peyto converted [--] wells from the previous reserve report. They forecasted $159m in capex & 3.9bcf/well for these [--] wells ($5.58/boe). The actual outcome was $196m spent & they added 5.4bcf/well ($4.98/boe). Shareholders can continue to trust the report. 11/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1759676351131402531)  2024-02-19T20:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Growth & Income -Theyve paid $21.31/shr in dividends over last [----] years. [-----] gross wells have been booked. [----] are categorized as proven undeveloped. They plan on drilling 70-80 in [----]. -PDP Reserve life is the longest in 12/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1759676357389213929)  2024-02-19T20:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"Risk Assessment -Peyto argues their reserves are more predictable easier to determine no water risk long life & thus CFs are more reliable and should be valued more highly (5% discount rate) As Buffett says a bird in the hand is greater than two in the bush 13/x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1759676359767425160)  2024-02-19T20:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@Blair_j_kennedy Yes they had two pipeline tie-ins into lower line pressure/higher liquids recovery. And a third project pipeline redirection saved them $2.5m. All for minimal cost. One tie in was very short like measured in feet. It was discussed on the Q3 call"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1759728438938681610)  2024-02-19T23:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@liberal_party WTF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1760297097713029384)  2024-02-21T13:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements


"How the nat gas market works"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1760325653189067169)  2024-02-21T15:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements


"@emmpeethree @Westpine613 Who is they Banks and insurers are different beasts. Large bond portfolios will increase in value due to falling rates. Banks also benefit from increasing spreads however due to the long/short duration mismatch banks can get caught when rates move too quickly (as they did)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1761073720893026364)  2024-02-23T17:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"🚨 Buffett going long oil indefinitely through ownership of $OXY - just like his Coke & AMEX investments. 🚨 $BRK owns 27.8% of the $OXY common + warrants. 😯 https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2023ltr.pdf https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2023ltr.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1761479162500383165)  2024-02-24T19:52Z [----] followers, 17.2K engagements


"@rockcreekfreak @chrisinmontreal @IBB_INVEST Calgary is somewhat of an anomaly. At current commodity prices AB is not at risk of a recession. AB GDP grew 5.3% in [----]. Latest data has the O&G sector growing 2.6% YOY. Flat or slightly down GDP isnt the end of the world. Most wont even notice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1761909908163731589)  2024-02-26T00:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements


"@rockcreekfreak @oil_indo @chrisinmontreal @IBB_INVEST Interesting Somebody claimed auto sales were slowing and I provided data from the AB govt dashboard that auto sales are up 26% YOY. I guess that makes me a recession denier"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kevin_AGraham/status/1761911053217120687)  2024-02-26T00:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements

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