[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.] #  @JulianKlymochko Julian Klymochko The BDC (Business Development Company) sector is experiencing significant changes, with many BDCs facing challenges and declining prices. Some analysts are warning of a potential recession and default cycle in the private credit market, while others are highlighting opportunities in specific BDCs and M&A (merger and acquisition) deals. Recent M&A deals include acquisitions by companies such as $RYN, $BCRX, and $CVE, and there are also updates on SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) and their activities. ### Engagements: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1640715014/interactions)  - X Week XXXXXXX -XX% - X Month XXXXXXX +74% - X Months XXXXXXXXX -XXXX% - X Year XXXXXXXXX +144% ### Mentions: XX [#](/creator/twitter::1640715014/posts_active)  - X Week XX -XX% - X Month XXX +3% - X Months XXX +9.80% - X Year XXXXX +62% ### Followers: XXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1640715014/followers)  - X Week XXXXXX +0.79% - X Month XXXXXX +3.70% - X Months XXXXXX +9.60% - X Year XXXXXX +16% ### CreatorRank: XXXXXXX [#](/creator/twitter::1640715014/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence [#](/creator/twitter::1640715014/influence) --- **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) XXXX% [stocks](/list/stocks) XXXX% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) XXX% [countries](/list/countries) XXXX% [vc firms](/list/vc-firms) XXXX% **Social topic influence** [acquisition](/topic/acquisition) #467, [private equity](/topic/private-equity) #157, [ipo](/topic/ipo) #439, [nav](/topic/nav) #84, [$arbto](/topic/$arbto) #1, [$aexa](/topic/$aexa) #1, [cuts](/topic/cuts) 0.51%, [over the](/topic/over-the) 0.51%, [$main](/topic/$main) 0.51%, [$obdc](/topic/$obdc) #1 **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@ajacksonhole](/creator/undefined) [@crockejo](/creator/undefined) [@specialsitsnews](/creator/undefined) [@y_csma](/creator/undefined) [@chamath](/creator/undefined) [@gr8t4ver](/creator/undefined) [@tuttlecapital](/creator/undefined) [@dt432123](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@elonmusk](/creator/undefined) [@lordreek714](/creator/undefined) [@jordanelist](/creator/undefined) [@pachos](/creator/undefined) [@arbstocktipster](/creator/undefined) [@sparertime](/creator/undefined) [@vincentaugondor](/creator/undefined) [@kingdomcapadv](/creator/undefined) [@spactrack](/creator/undefined) [@mcspacface](/creator/undefined) [@chrismoon2040](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)](/topic/$main) [Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC)](/topic/$obdc) [Ares Capital, Corp. (ARCC)](/topic/$arcc) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Comerica, Inc. (CMA)](/topic/$cma) [Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)](/topic/$fitb) [Tongtongcoin (TTC)](/topic/$ttc) [Coop Coin (COOP)](/topic/$coop) [Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT)](/topic/$rkt) [pepe in a memes world (PEW)](/topic/$pew) [Cantor Equity Partners, Inc. Class A Ordinary Shares (CEP)](/topic/$xxi) [Columbus Circle Capital Corp I Class A Ordinary Shares (CCCM)](/topic/$cccm) [CEREAL (CEP)](/topic/$cep) [Paramount Global Class A Common Stock (PARAA)](/topic/$paraa) [Western Midstream Partners, LP. (WES)](/topic/$wes) [Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR)](/topic/$smlr) [Strive, Inc. (ASST)](/topic/$asst) [Electronic Arts Inc. (EA)](/topic/$ea) [Fermi Inc. Common Stock (FRMI)](/topic/$frmi) [Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)](/topic/$htgc) [JPMorgan Chase (JPM)](/topic/$jpm) [Oklo Inc. (OKLO)](/topic/$oklo) [NuScale Power Corporation (SMR)](/topic/$smr) [CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV)](/topic/$crwv) [Core Scientific, Inc. Common Stock (CORZ)](/topic/core-scientific) [Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)](/topic/$cve) [PotlatchDeltic Corporation Common Stock (PCH)](/topic/$pch) [Rayonier Inc. (RYN)](/topic/$ryn) ### Top Social Posts [#](/creator/twitter::1640715014/posts) --- Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours "We're so back @chamath filed to launch a $XXX million SPAC called American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp. A $AEXA" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1957552690843775037) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-08-18T21:18Z 30.2K followers, 382.3K engagements "The media: BDCs are falling on fed rate cuts which will pressure investment income and dividends Reality: Fed fund futures have been pricing in 4-5 more rate cuts for many months already (even when BDCs were trading at an average +5% premium this February)" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1976709543603454239) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-10T18:00Z 30.2K followers, 2987 engagements "Valuations shmaluations. While the data is limited because the S&P XXX has rarely traded at 23x earnings (where it is currently) when the stock market has been this expensive historically subsequent 5-year returns were flat to negative on a total return basis" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1974174786613031123) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-03T18:08Z 30.2K followers, 2186 engagements "Today's M&A notes $CMA to be acquired by $FITB for 1.8663x shares XXXX% premium $XXXX billion $HSII to be acquired by Advent / Corvex for $XXXXX XXXX% premium $XXX billion $TGH.to to be acquired by $TTC for $XXXX XXX% premium $XXX million" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1975194891430072660) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-06T13:42Z 30.2K followers, 2073 engagements "Last week the median BDC NAV discount reached -20%. This dynamic has occurred five times over the past twenty years. Historically when the median BDC discount reached -XX% forward returns have been relatively attractive" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1975229354344055158) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-06T15:59Z 30.2K followers, 15.6K engagements "Private credit: Warning - Recession incoming along with a massive default cycle. Leveraged loans and High yield bonds: Nah we're good. No problems in the credit markets whatsoever. A shocking divergence in the sub-investment grade credit market" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1976671781340721152) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-10T15:30Z 30.2K followers, 58.8K engagements "If you love $PZZA like I do (the pizza not the stock) hopefully we don't see quality decline and price go up on this LBO" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1978206888928956605) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-14T21:10Z 30.2K followers, 4605 engagements "Wild things happen to merger arbitrage spreads when the acquiror turns into a meme stock With $RKT becoming a retail pump the $COOP deal spread blew out to nearly XX% gross. With the deal set to close tomorrow $RKT pumpers could have earned 1000% annualized with the switch" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1973166006668599772) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-09-30T23:20Z 30.2K followers, 3668 engagements "$MAIN was the first BDC to provide an early look into Q3 results this am. While $MAIN is somewhat differentiated from the sector with its higher private equity exposure (25%) and enormous NAV premium its prelim Q3 performance provides some interesting data points: - NII in line with street expectations - NAV beat consensus up XXX% to XXX% QoQ (although no indication on split between NAV accretion from share issuance and underlying portfolio performance) - Non-accruals DECLINED by 90bps (fair value) / 140bps (cost) Strong NII NAVPS growth and declining non-accruals disclosed in $MAIN's prelim" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1978181301355332053) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-14T19:29Z 30.2K followers, 4947 engagements "On Tuesday the two largest listed BDCs dismissed recent concerns on private credit and addressed the misguided consternation stemming from recent bankruptcies in the syndicated loan market. Blue Owl $OBDC: The bankruptcies of Tricolor Holdings and First Brands Group is an "odd kind of fear-mongering. Were not seeing rising defaults were not seeing companies struggling." Ares $ARCC: "Weve been a little surprised by the First Brands Tricolor selloff and buzz because when we look at our credit portfolios we actually see pretty healthy portfolios relative to almost any metric that you can look" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1978499538064376037) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-15T16:33Z 30.2K followers, 12.2K engagements "Cutting through the noise and negative sentiment on BDCs here are some interesting insights from a recent call with leading BDCs and sell-side analyst: - BDC sentiment completely disconnected from reality. 15-25% NAV discounts imply defaults that far exceed what happened in the GFC with far lower implied recovery rates. Current discounts imply credit conditions unprecedented even in the worst recessions. - Baby out with the bathwater dynamic as idiosyncratic issues in BSL market has nothing to do with private credit. This has driven investor nervousness and a snowball effect from bad" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1979258760989417974) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-17T18:50Z 30.2K followers, 58.9K engagements "How's this for a winning combination: Trump + Chamath + SPAC The Colombier Acquisition ( $CLBR) team filed an S-1 for their 3rd SPAC featuring a star-studded cast of SPAC royalty. This issue should be HOT. $PSQH $PEW" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1979289301411336314) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-17T20:51Z 30.2K followers, 70.6K engagements "Nature is healing - we've had the second leveraged buyout announced since Obliteration Day $AVDX to be acquired by TPG / Corpay for $XXXXX cash per share XXXX% premium $XXX billion It ain't much but it's honest work" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1920110659800637869) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-05-07T13:37Z 30.2K followers, 2106 engagements "Cantor has had a hot hand lately primarily off their $XXI deal. Today they IPO another SPAC Cantor Equity Partners III marking their fourth active SPAC in the market (now three searching for a target). Yes it was oversubscribed. Disclosure: Long $CAEP in $ARB.to" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1938227144486006856) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-06-26T13:25Z 30.2K followers, 5572 engagements "$CCCM is trading dangerously close to NAV ($10.07) - a level in which it could suffer devastating redemptions. Why does the market hate the ProCap Financial deal in particular compared to the other crypto treasury SPACs $CEPO $DYNX $CEP $MBAV $TLGYF" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1947691400658837684) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-07-22T16:13Z 30.2K followers, 7138 engagements "Today's M&A notes $FN.to to be acquired by Birch Hill / Brookfield for $XXXXX XXXX% premium $2.9bn $RCG.to to be acquired by $IAG.to for $XXXXX XXXXX% premium $597mm $PRYM.to to be acquired by $TXG.to for 0.06x shares XXXX% premium $449mm" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1949822419595862312) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-07-28T13:21Z 30.2K followers, 1961 engagements "Today's M&A and SPAC notes $ARIS to be acquired by $WES for 0.625x shares or $XXXXX cash (subject to cap) XXXX% premium $XXX billion $PARAA / Skydance Media deal closed $SBXD announced a business combination with Parataxis $QUMSU $XX million IPO" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1953449288458973256) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-08-07T13:32Z 30.2K followers, 1631 engagements "Between 2010 and 2020 buying the highest quality stocks and short selling the lowest yielded an approximate XXX% return. Since the pandemic script has flipped and investors would have been better off shorting a basket of stocks of the highest quality businesses while going long the lowest quality junk stocks - particularly since April of this year. Such is investing in a degen market" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1969763029966520716) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-09-21T13:57Z 30.2K followers, 28.3K engagements "I guess there's no need for a market check or even much price negotiation for a bitcoin treasury merger but the Semler Scientific / Strive merger came together shockingly fast. $SMLR / $ASST signed the confidentiality agreement on Friday and announced the deal Monday am" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1970261500880392543) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-09-22T22:58Z 30.2K followers, 4349 engagements "In 2021 Score Media was acquired by Penn National at a XXXX% premium. Score's VP of Finance insider traded on the deal having a friend buy $7000 of call options and selling them for $318800. The codeword they used for the cash was "toys". No jail time in Canada though" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1973100191084675186) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-09-30T18:58Z 30.2K followers, 2457 engagements "You're not gonna believe this. There are XXX SPACs outstanding. Of those XXX are searching for a deal. Of those XXX pre-deal SPACs just X are trading at a premium to NAV. And of those X guess which one trades at the highest NAV premium Chamath's $AEXA SPAC" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1973144108958183809) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-09-30T21:53Z 30.2K followers, 14.4K engagements "Now that $NEUE's sale to New Enterprise Associates for $XXXX per share has closed does anybody know why the spread blew out earlier this year to a near X% probability of closing on seemingly no news We never had a position so didn't follow it closely. A weird situation though" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1973744923016130835) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-02T13:40Z 30.2K followers, 2650 engagements "@Roshan_Gudapati Particularly odd since Apollo was short First Brands loans" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1974526224786698446) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-04T17:25Z 30.2K followers, 3650 engagements "Advice for would-be private equity titans when trying to land the largest LBO of all time: Choke out the CEO of the company you are trying to take private $EA" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1974858584879239653) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-05T15:25Z 30.2K followers, 4739 engagements "For the historical records: This week a zero-revenue AI / Power REIT founded XX months ago went public at a $XXXX billion valuation then soared XX% amid insatiable demand for its shares. It was co-founded by a politician and its project is named after the President. $FRMI" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1974916148224463089) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-05T19:14Z 30.2K followers, 5285 engagements "As private credit sinks further into a bear market the average listed BDC yield recently topped XX% a cycle high stemming from a combination of high base rates and double-digit NAV discounts. While we expect yields to decline for two reasons namely further cuts in the fed funds rate (private credit is a floating rate exposure) plus a recovery in NAV discounts in a normalized environment we expect the asset class to yield approximately SOFR +600 (post leverage net of expenses)" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1975600925042671936) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-07T16:35Z 30.2K followers, 14.4K engagements "While most risk assets continue to levitate to new highs BDCs have been beaten like a redheaded stepchild. If you're looking to pick through the wreckage we track the top XX BDCs and their portfolio characteristics below. If you own a non-traded BDC could be time to switch" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1975752206050525465) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-08T02:36Z 30.2K followers, 39.1K engagements "@Stormshieldval The internally managed BDCs ( $MAIN $HTGC $CSWC $TRIN) have had higher than average ROEs and also trade at the highest valuations" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1975971183553380449) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-08T17:06Z 30.2K followers, XXX engagements "Contingent value rights (CVRs) have become more popular aspects of merger considerations and therefore their evaluation has become an important part of an analyst's toolkit. Currently there a X live public M&A deals featuring a CVR. Typically as a rule of thumb the market prices them around XX cents on the dollar on average. However is this market efficient In order to more efficiently price CVRs in M&A transactions we have a model tracking CVRs along with their payouts since 2013. Feel free to reach out if you have been paid on any of the CVRs listed in the database below and I'll keep it" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1976002504329703465) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-08T19:11Z 30.2K followers, 9105 engagements "PE-owned Alliance Laundry just priced its IPO. The deal was UPSIZED and priced at the TOP OF ITS RANGE. If you are invested in a private equity fund that isn't taking all of their portfolio companies public right now then you should start asking some questions. The IPO window can't get more open" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1976043961178567047) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-08T21:56Z 30.2K followers, 14.6K engagements "@crockejo Apollo just IPO'd Phoenix University $PXED" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1976264997782397231) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-09T12:34Z 30.2K followers, XXX engagements "Private equity portcos and SPACs are a match made in heaven. Look for an avalanche of these transactions to be announced this cycle" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1976470217950961774) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-10T02:09Z 30.2K followers, 6688 engagements ""I haven't heard anything to suggest that the private deals are performing differently from the public deals." Jamie Dimon dismisses the market's concern regarding private credit fundamentals that has manifested in recent BDC price volatility. $JPM" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1978102016699211822) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-14T14:14Z 30.2K followers, 7291 engagements "If you love $PAPA like I do (the pizza not the stock) hopefully we don't see quality decline and price go up on this LBO" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1978204526810137077) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-14T21:01Z 30.2K followers, 1752 engagements "Turns out chasing $OKLO and $SMR was the better play than buying $GSRT (now $NKLR) and $HOND more cheaply (with downside protection though)" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1978607791020662804) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-15T23:43Z 30.2K followers, 4019 engagements "Interesting optionality in below-NAV SPAC Columbus Circle Capital I which has a business combination with bitcoin treasury company ProCap Financial. $BRR price = $XXXXX Estimated current NAV = $XXXXX Yield to redemption = XXX% Disclosure: Long $BRR in $ARB.to" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1970215880916426752) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-09-22T19:57Z 30.2K followers, 3237 engagements "CoreWeave and Core Scientific filed the definitive proxy statement for their proposed merger. The $CORZ shareholder vote set for Oct 30th should be fairly electric given its shares are trading at an XXXX% premium to the $CRWV consideration. A bump incoming" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1971768192252236241) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-09-27T02:45Z 30.2K followers, 17.9K engagements "Today's M&A and SPAC notes $RFAI announced a business combination with Nanyang Biologics $MLAC announced a business combination with Avalanche Treasury $BGFV / Worldwide Golf / Capitol Hill Group deal closed" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1973738901346169332) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-02T13:16Z 30.2K followers, 1798 engagements "@VincentAuGondor only down about X% likely due to leverage + high dividend payout. Also had some money-losing investments (First Brands for example)" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1974106070688936008) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-03T13:35Z 30.2K followers, XXX engagements "This morning Cenovus Energy bumped its friendly MEG Energy bid by +4.6% to $XXXXX cash + 0.62x shares currently worth $XXXXX in a "best and final" gambit to win the prize it is competing with hostile bidder Strathcona Resources for. In M&A parlance Cenovus' latest effort represents a "knockout bid" for MEG likely causing the out-gunned Strathcona to retreat. It will be a bittersweet result for Strathcona given it will cash out of its XXXX% MEG toehold at a healthy $XXX million+ profit. However Cenovus shareholders can rest easy as the corporation did not break the bank paying a disciplined" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1975932042451071458) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-08T14:31Z 30.2K followers, 7518 engagements "As we surmised Strathcona is bowing out of the bidding war for MEG Energy by terminating its hostile takeover bid after realizing it was outgunned by the much-bigger Cenovus" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1976775139087020131) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-10T22:21Z 30.2K followers, 5012 engagements "As secondary market prices reach distressed levels and NAV discounts blow past XX% BDC yields have surged to 14%. They have only been higher twice over the past twenty years - during the GFC of 2008-2009 and the COVID crash of 2020" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1977131186439987652) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-11T21:56Z 30.2K followers, 33.8K engagements "Today's M&A notes $PCH to be acquired by $RYN for 1.7339x shares XXX% premium $4.5bn $ATXS to be acquired by $BCRX for $XXXX cash + 0.59x shares XXXX% premium $700mm $CGC.v to be acquired by $MUX for 0.0225x shares XXXX% premium $121.4mm" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1978093082202558577) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-14T13:38Z 30.2K followers, 1727 engagements "@AcaciaCap Didn't work great recently in the private REIT space though" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1979287056481423440) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-17T20:43Z 30.2K followers, XXX engagements "@kingdomcapadv You're right. I didn't include the smallest X BDCs including $LIEN $NEWT $GECC $PFX $ICMB $TURN $RAND $EQS" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1974655527897682104) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-05T01:58Z 30.2K followers, 1924 engagements "Some boneheads tried to bluff Blackstone buying $TASK shares above its $XXXXX buyout price and then voting down the deal hoping for a bump in consideration. After the vote failed the deal terminated now they're selling below $15.00" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1976033789320331330) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-08T21:15Z 30.2K followers, 4596 engagements "GOWell Technology / Maywood Acquisition deal overview A one-stop-shop for innovative well logging solutions in the energy sector $XXXXX million EV $XX million PIPE Symbol $GOW PR: IR deck: Disclosure: Long $MAYA in $ARB.to" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1978094275993694572) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-14T13:43Z 30.2K followers, 1957 engagements "The "BDCs are falling because rates are declining" thesis doesnt hold water as the previous bear market happened during a rising rate environment and secondary market pricing was stronger during a zero interest rate environment. The misguided declining rates thesis is a case of price driving narrative. For example if BDC prices were rallying then people would say "of course BDC prices are rallying as rates decline - investors are fleeing money market funds short term bond funds and T-bills in search of higher-yielding alternatives."" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1978510935729045555) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-15T17:19Z 30.2K followers, 14.6K engagements "@midteensyield Then you are telling me that 2000 private equity owned companies are bankrupt" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1979601368236335140) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-18T17:32Z 30.2K followers, XXX engagements "@brentmuio $ARCC $BXSL $OBDC $GBDC $MSDL Disclosure: Long all of these" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1975960743821639978) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-08T16:25Z 30.2K followers, 2834 engagements "One of the most fascinating insights is that even though prices are XX% lower in the liquid market most allocators still prefer to invest in non-traded BDCs at XXX% of NAV (25% higher than public BDCs) solely due to the lack of mark-to-market. They prefer a smooth X% instead of a volatile XX% from the same asset - effectively paying 200bps per annum to not be shown the prices" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1979262293096698223) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-17T19:04Z 30.2K followers, 55.9K engagements "BDC NAV discounts wider than peak tariff-tantrum but BDC bond yields 100bps tighter is a weird dynamic if credit risks have increased" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1979265732606333421) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-17T19:18Z 30.2K followers, 8812 engagements "Here is a stat that could melt an allocator's brain: Since 1990 gold has outperformed real estate. A "barbarous relic" no more" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1979965903937966137) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-19T17:40Z 30.2K followers, 3015 engagements "If in fact we are heading into a credit crisis worse than 2008/2009 CDS are likely a good buy here with multi-decade tights in corporate credit spreads" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1980034593307926804) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-19T22:13Z 30.2K followers, 3145 engagements "While BDC NAV discounts are approximate to those experienced in Q2 2020 during the pandemic bear market there was a dramatic difference in private credit loan prices. In Q2 2020 XX% of loans were marked below XX. In comparison last quarter XX% of loans were marked below 80" [X Link](https://x.com/JulianKlymochko/status/1980060171792687478) [@JulianKlymochko](/creator/x/JulianKlymochko) 2025-10-19T23:55Z 30.2K followers, 3700 engagements
[GUEST ACCESS MODE: Data is scrambled or limited to provide examples. Make requests using your API key to unlock full data. Check https://lunarcrush.ai/auth for authentication information.]
The BDC (Business Development Company) sector is experiencing significant changes, with many BDCs facing challenges and declining prices. Some analysts are warning of a potential recession and default cycle in the private credit market, while others are highlighting opportunities in specific BDCs and M&A (merger and acquisition) deals. Recent M&A deals include acquisitions by companies such as $RYN, $BCRX, and $CVE, and there are also updates on SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) and their activities.
Social category influence finance XXXX% stocks XXXX% cryptocurrencies XXX% countries XXXX% vc firms XXXX%
Social topic influence acquisition #467, private equity #157, ipo #439, nav #84, $arbto #1, $aexa #1, cuts 0.51%, over the 0.51%, $main 0.51%, $obdc #1
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @ajacksonhole @crockejo @specialsitsnews @y_csma @chamath @gr8t4ver @tuttlecapital @dt432123 @grok @elonmusk @lordreek714 @jordanelist @pachos @arbstocktipster @sparertime @vincentaugondor @kingdomcapadv @spactrack @mcspacface @chrismoon2040
Top assets mentioned Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Ares Capital, Corp. (ARCC) Bitcoin (BTC) Comerica, Inc. (CMA) Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) Tongtongcoin (TTC) Coop Coin (COOP) Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) pepe in a memes world (PEW) Cantor Equity Partners, Inc. Class A Ordinary Shares (CEP) Columbus Circle Capital Corp I Class A Ordinary Shares (CCCM) CEREAL (CEP) Paramount Global Class A Common Stock (PARAA) Western Midstream Partners, LP. (WES) Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) Strive, Inc. (ASST) Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) Fermi Inc. Common Stock (FRMI) Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Oklo Inc. (OKLO) NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) Core Scientific, Inc. Common Stock (CORZ) Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) PotlatchDeltic Corporation Common Stock (PCH) Rayonier Inc. (RYN)
Top posts by engagements in the last XX hours
"We're so back @chamath filed to launch a $XXX million SPAC called American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp. A $AEXA"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-08-18T21:18Z 30.2K followers, 382.3K engagements
"The media: BDCs are falling on fed rate cuts which will pressure investment income and dividends Reality: Fed fund futures have been pricing in 4-5 more rate cuts for many months already (even when BDCs were trading at an average +5% premium this February)"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-10T18:00Z 30.2K followers, 2987 engagements
"Valuations shmaluations. While the data is limited because the S&P XXX has rarely traded at 23x earnings (where it is currently) when the stock market has been this expensive historically subsequent 5-year returns were flat to negative on a total return basis"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-03T18:08Z 30.2K followers, 2186 engagements
"Today's M&A notes $CMA to be acquired by $FITB for 1.8663x shares XXXX% premium $XXXX billion $HSII to be acquired by Advent / Corvex for $XXXXX XXXX% premium $XXX billion $TGH.to to be acquired by $TTC for $XXXX XXX% premium $XXX million"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-06T13:42Z 30.2K followers, 2073 engagements
"Last week the median BDC NAV discount reached -20%. This dynamic has occurred five times over the past twenty years. Historically when the median BDC discount reached -XX% forward returns have been relatively attractive"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-06T15:59Z 30.2K followers, 15.6K engagements
"Private credit: Warning - Recession incoming along with a massive default cycle. Leveraged loans and High yield bonds: Nah we're good. No problems in the credit markets whatsoever. A shocking divergence in the sub-investment grade credit market"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-10T15:30Z 30.2K followers, 58.8K engagements
"If you love $PZZA like I do (the pizza not the stock) hopefully we don't see quality decline and price go up on this LBO"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-14T21:10Z 30.2K followers, 4605 engagements
"Wild things happen to merger arbitrage spreads when the acquiror turns into a meme stock With $RKT becoming a retail pump the $COOP deal spread blew out to nearly XX% gross. With the deal set to close tomorrow $RKT pumpers could have earned 1000% annualized with the switch"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-09-30T23:20Z 30.2K followers, 3668 engagements
"$MAIN was the first BDC to provide an early look into Q3 results this am. While $MAIN is somewhat differentiated from the sector with its higher private equity exposure (25%) and enormous NAV premium its prelim Q3 performance provides some interesting data points: - NII in line with street expectations - NAV beat consensus up XXX% to XXX% QoQ (although no indication on split between NAV accretion from share issuance and underlying portfolio performance) - Non-accruals DECLINED by 90bps (fair value) / 140bps (cost) Strong NII NAVPS growth and declining non-accruals disclosed in $MAIN's prelim"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-14T19:29Z 30.2K followers, 4947 engagements
"On Tuesday the two largest listed BDCs dismissed recent concerns on private credit and addressed the misguided consternation stemming from recent bankruptcies in the syndicated loan market. Blue Owl $OBDC: The bankruptcies of Tricolor Holdings and First Brands Group is an "odd kind of fear-mongering. Were not seeing rising defaults were not seeing companies struggling." Ares $ARCC: "Weve been a little surprised by the First Brands Tricolor selloff and buzz because when we look at our credit portfolios we actually see pretty healthy portfolios relative to almost any metric that you can look"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-15T16:33Z 30.2K followers, 12.2K engagements
"Cutting through the noise and negative sentiment on BDCs here are some interesting insights from a recent call with leading BDCs and sell-side analyst: - BDC sentiment completely disconnected from reality. 15-25% NAV discounts imply defaults that far exceed what happened in the GFC with far lower implied recovery rates. Current discounts imply credit conditions unprecedented even in the worst recessions. - Baby out with the bathwater dynamic as idiosyncratic issues in BSL market has nothing to do with private credit. This has driven investor nervousness and a snowball effect from bad"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-17T18:50Z 30.2K followers, 58.9K engagements
"How's this for a winning combination: Trump + Chamath + SPAC The Colombier Acquisition ( $CLBR) team filed an S-1 for their 3rd SPAC featuring a star-studded cast of SPAC royalty. This issue should be HOT. $PSQH $PEW"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-17T20:51Z 30.2K followers, 70.6K engagements
"Nature is healing - we've had the second leveraged buyout announced since Obliteration Day $AVDX to be acquired by TPG / Corpay for $XXXXX cash per share XXXX% premium $XXX billion It ain't much but it's honest work"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-05-07T13:37Z 30.2K followers, 2106 engagements
"Cantor has had a hot hand lately primarily off their $XXI deal. Today they IPO another SPAC Cantor Equity Partners III marking their fourth active SPAC in the market (now three searching for a target). Yes it was oversubscribed. Disclosure: Long $CAEP in $ARB.to"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-06-26T13:25Z 30.2K followers, 5572 engagements
"$CCCM is trading dangerously close to NAV ($10.07) - a level in which it could suffer devastating redemptions. Why does the market hate the ProCap Financial deal in particular compared to the other crypto treasury SPACs $CEPO $DYNX $CEP $MBAV $TLGYF"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-07-22T16:13Z 30.2K followers, 7138 engagements
"Today's M&A notes $FN.to to be acquired by Birch Hill / Brookfield for $XXXXX XXXX% premium $2.9bn $RCG.to to be acquired by $IAG.to for $XXXXX XXXXX% premium $597mm $PRYM.to to be acquired by $TXG.to for 0.06x shares XXXX% premium $449mm"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-07-28T13:21Z 30.2K followers, 1961 engagements
"Today's M&A and SPAC notes $ARIS to be acquired by $WES for 0.625x shares or $XXXXX cash (subject to cap) XXXX% premium $XXX billion $PARAA / Skydance Media deal closed $SBXD announced a business combination with Parataxis $QUMSU $XX million IPO"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-08-07T13:32Z 30.2K followers, 1631 engagements
"Between 2010 and 2020 buying the highest quality stocks and short selling the lowest yielded an approximate XXX% return. Since the pandemic script has flipped and investors would have been better off shorting a basket of stocks of the highest quality businesses while going long the lowest quality junk stocks - particularly since April of this year. Such is investing in a degen market"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-09-21T13:57Z 30.2K followers, 28.3K engagements
"I guess there's no need for a market check or even much price negotiation for a bitcoin treasury merger but the Semler Scientific / Strive merger came together shockingly fast. $SMLR / $ASST signed the confidentiality agreement on Friday and announced the deal Monday am"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-09-22T22:58Z 30.2K followers, 4349 engagements
"In 2021 Score Media was acquired by Penn National at a XXXX% premium. Score's VP of Finance insider traded on the deal having a friend buy $7000 of call options and selling them for $318800. The codeword they used for the cash was "toys". No jail time in Canada though"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-09-30T18:58Z 30.2K followers, 2457 engagements
"You're not gonna believe this. There are XXX SPACs outstanding. Of those XXX are searching for a deal. Of those XXX pre-deal SPACs just X are trading at a premium to NAV. And of those X guess which one trades at the highest NAV premium Chamath's $AEXA SPAC"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-09-30T21:53Z 30.2K followers, 14.4K engagements
"Now that $NEUE's sale to New Enterprise Associates for $XXXX per share has closed does anybody know why the spread blew out earlier this year to a near X% probability of closing on seemingly no news We never had a position so didn't follow it closely. A weird situation though"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-02T13:40Z 30.2K followers, 2650 engagements
"@Roshan_Gudapati Particularly odd since Apollo was short First Brands loans"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-04T17:25Z 30.2K followers, 3650 engagements
"Advice for would-be private equity titans when trying to land the largest LBO of all time: Choke out the CEO of the company you are trying to take private $EA"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-05T15:25Z 30.2K followers, 4739 engagements
"For the historical records: This week a zero-revenue AI / Power REIT founded XX months ago went public at a $XXXX billion valuation then soared XX% amid insatiable demand for its shares. It was co-founded by a politician and its project is named after the President. $FRMI"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-05T19:14Z 30.2K followers, 5285 engagements
"As private credit sinks further into a bear market the average listed BDC yield recently topped XX% a cycle high stemming from a combination of high base rates and double-digit NAV discounts. While we expect yields to decline for two reasons namely further cuts in the fed funds rate (private credit is a floating rate exposure) plus a recovery in NAV discounts in a normalized environment we expect the asset class to yield approximately SOFR +600 (post leverage net of expenses)"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-07T16:35Z 30.2K followers, 14.4K engagements
"While most risk assets continue to levitate to new highs BDCs have been beaten like a redheaded stepchild. If you're looking to pick through the wreckage we track the top XX BDCs and their portfolio characteristics below. If you own a non-traded BDC could be time to switch"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-08T02:36Z 30.2K followers, 39.1K engagements
"@Stormshieldval The internally managed BDCs ( $MAIN $HTGC $CSWC $TRIN) have had higher than average ROEs and also trade at the highest valuations"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-08T17:06Z 30.2K followers, XXX engagements
"Contingent value rights (CVRs) have become more popular aspects of merger considerations and therefore their evaluation has become an important part of an analyst's toolkit. Currently there a X live public M&A deals featuring a CVR. Typically as a rule of thumb the market prices them around XX cents on the dollar on average. However is this market efficient In order to more efficiently price CVRs in M&A transactions we have a model tracking CVRs along with their payouts since 2013. Feel free to reach out if you have been paid on any of the CVRs listed in the database below and I'll keep it"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-08T19:11Z 30.2K followers, 9105 engagements
"PE-owned Alliance Laundry just priced its IPO. The deal was UPSIZED and priced at the TOP OF ITS RANGE. If you are invested in a private equity fund that isn't taking all of their portfolio companies public right now then you should start asking some questions. The IPO window can't get more open"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-08T21:56Z 30.2K followers, 14.6K engagements
"@crockejo Apollo just IPO'd Phoenix University $PXED"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-09T12:34Z 30.2K followers, XXX engagements
"Private equity portcos and SPACs are a match made in heaven. Look for an avalanche of these transactions to be announced this cycle"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-10T02:09Z 30.2K followers, 6688 engagements
""I haven't heard anything to suggest that the private deals are performing differently from the public deals." Jamie Dimon dismisses the market's concern regarding private credit fundamentals that has manifested in recent BDC price volatility. $JPM"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-14T14:14Z 30.2K followers, 7291 engagements
"If you love $PAPA like I do (the pizza not the stock) hopefully we don't see quality decline and price go up on this LBO"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-14T21:01Z 30.2K followers, 1752 engagements
"Turns out chasing $OKLO and $SMR was the better play than buying $GSRT (now $NKLR) and $HOND more cheaply (with downside protection though)"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-15T23:43Z 30.2K followers, 4019 engagements
"Interesting optionality in below-NAV SPAC Columbus Circle Capital I which has a business combination with bitcoin treasury company ProCap Financial. $BRR price = $XXXXX Estimated current NAV = $XXXXX Yield to redemption = XXX% Disclosure: Long $BRR in $ARB.to"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-09-22T19:57Z 30.2K followers, 3237 engagements
"CoreWeave and Core Scientific filed the definitive proxy statement for their proposed merger. The $CORZ shareholder vote set for Oct 30th should be fairly electric given its shares are trading at an XXXX% premium to the $CRWV consideration. A bump incoming"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-09-27T02:45Z 30.2K followers, 17.9K engagements
"Today's M&A and SPAC notes $RFAI announced a business combination with Nanyang Biologics $MLAC announced a business combination with Avalanche Treasury $BGFV / Worldwide Golf / Capitol Hill Group deal closed"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-02T13:16Z 30.2K followers, 1798 engagements
"@VincentAuGondor only down about X% likely due to leverage + high dividend payout. Also had some money-losing investments (First Brands for example)"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-03T13:35Z 30.2K followers, XXX engagements
"This morning Cenovus Energy bumped its friendly MEG Energy bid by +4.6% to $XXXXX cash + 0.62x shares currently worth $XXXXX in a "best and final" gambit to win the prize it is competing with hostile bidder Strathcona Resources for. In M&A parlance Cenovus' latest effort represents a "knockout bid" for MEG likely causing the out-gunned Strathcona to retreat. It will be a bittersweet result for Strathcona given it will cash out of its XXXX% MEG toehold at a healthy $XXX million+ profit. However Cenovus shareholders can rest easy as the corporation did not break the bank paying a disciplined"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-08T14:31Z 30.2K followers, 7518 engagements
"As we surmised Strathcona is bowing out of the bidding war for MEG Energy by terminating its hostile takeover bid after realizing it was outgunned by the much-bigger Cenovus"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-10T22:21Z 30.2K followers, 5012 engagements
"As secondary market prices reach distressed levels and NAV discounts blow past XX% BDC yields have surged to 14%. They have only been higher twice over the past twenty years - during the GFC of 2008-2009 and the COVID crash of 2020"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-11T21:56Z 30.2K followers, 33.8K engagements
"Today's M&A notes $PCH to be acquired by $RYN for 1.7339x shares XXX% premium $4.5bn $ATXS to be acquired by $BCRX for $XXXX cash + 0.59x shares XXXX% premium $700mm $CGC.v to be acquired by $MUX for 0.0225x shares XXXX% premium $121.4mm"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-14T13:38Z 30.2K followers, 1727 engagements
"@AcaciaCap Didn't work great recently in the private REIT space though"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-17T20:43Z 30.2K followers, XXX engagements
"@kingdomcapadv You're right. I didn't include the smallest X BDCs including $LIEN $NEWT $GECC $PFX $ICMB $TURN $RAND $EQS"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-05T01:58Z 30.2K followers, 1924 engagements
"Some boneheads tried to bluff Blackstone buying $TASK shares above its $XXXXX buyout price and then voting down the deal hoping for a bump in consideration. After the vote failed the deal terminated now they're selling below $15.00"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-08T21:15Z 30.2K followers, 4596 engagements
"GOWell Technology / Maywood Acquisition deal overview A one-stop-shop for innovative well logging solutions in the energy sector $XXXXX million EV $XX million PIPE Symbol $GOW PR: IR deck: Disclosure: Long $MAYA in $ARB.to"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-14T13:43Z 30.2K followers, 1957 engagements
"The "BDCs are falling because rates are declining" thesis doesnt hold water as the previous bear market happened during a rising rate environment and secondary market pricing was stronger during a zero interest rate environment. The misguided declining rates thesis is a case of price driving narrative. For example if BDC prices were rallying then people would say "of course BDC prices are rallying as rates decline - investors are fleeing money market funds short term bond funds and T-bills in search of higher-yielding alternatives.""
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-15T17:19Z 30.2K followers, 14.6K engagements
"@midteensyield Then you are telling me that 2000 private equity owned companies are bankrupt"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-18T17:32Z 30.2K followers, XXX engagements
"@brentmuio $ARCC $BXSL $OBDC $GBDC $MSDL Disclosure: Long all of these"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-08T16:25Z 30.2K followers, 2834 engagements
"One of the most fascinating insights is that even though prices are XX% lower in the liquid market most allocators still prefer to invest in non-traded BDCs at XXX% of NAV (25% higher than public BDCs) solely due to the lack of mark-to-market. They prefer a smooth X% instead of a volatile XX% from the same asset - effectively paying 200bps per annum to not be shown the prices"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-17T19:04Z 30.2K followers, 55.9K engagements
"BDC NAV discounts wider than peak tariff-tantrum but BDC bond yields 100bps tighter is a weird dynamic if credit risks have increased"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-17T19:18Z 30.2K followers, 8812 engagements
"Here is a stat that could melt an allocator's brain: Since 1990 gold has outperformed real estate. A "barbarous relic" no more"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-19T17:40Z 30.2K followers, 3015 engagements
"If in fact we are heading into a credit crisis worse than 2008/2009 CDS are likely a good buy here with multi-decade tights in corporate credit spreads"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-19T22:13Z 30.2K followers, 3145 engagements
"While BDC NAV discounts are approximate to those experienced in Q2 2020 during the pandemic bear market there was a dramatic difference in private credit loan prices. In Q2 2020 XX% of loans were marked below XX. In comparison last quarter XX% of loans were marked below 80"
X Link @JulianKlymochko 2025-10-19T23:55Z 30.2K followers, 3700 engagements
/creator/twitter::JulianKlymochko