#  @JohnHuber72 John Huber John Huber posts on X about stocks, in the, business, this is the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::820534716/interactions)  - [--] Week [-------] +288% - [--] Month [-------] +328% - [--] Months [---------] -29% - [--] Year [---------] +59% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::820534716/posts_active)  - [--] Month [--] -22% - [--] Months [---] +75% - [--] Year [---] +46% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::820534716/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +0.11% - [--] Month [------] +0.29% - [--] Months [------] +2.50% - [--] Year [------] +5% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::820534716/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) 44.07% [stocks](/list/stocks) 25.42% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 13.56% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 3.39% [financial services](/list/financial-services) 3.39% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 1.69% [countries](/list/countries) 1.69% [exchanges](/list/exchanges) 0.85% [currencies](/list/currencies) 0.85% [products](/list/products) 0.85% **Social topic influence** [stocks](/topic/stocks) #766, [in the](/topic/in-the) 12.71%, [business](/topic/business) 11.86%, [this is](/topic/this-is) 9.32%, [investment](/topic/investment) 8.47%, [ai](/topic/ai) 6.78%, [the most](/topic/the-most) 4.24%, [company](/topic/company) 3.39%, [$jpm](/topic/$jpm) 3.39%, [money](/topic/money) 3.39% **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@jacksonwharf](/creator/undefined) [@capitalobserver](/creator/undefined) [@compound248](/creator/undefined) [@smallcapcompass](/creator/undefined) [@cmo040958](/creator/undefined) [@lhamtil](/creator/undefined) [@dayumdawgg](/creator/undefined) [@firstadopter](/creator/undefined) [@cjzebra132](/creator/undefined) [@natstewart5](/creator/undefined) [@thetikr](/creator/undefined) [@grok](/creator/undefined) [@wadhwanica](/creator/undefined) [@dusk_lim](/creator/undefined) [@evfcfaddict](/creator/undefined) [@jszhang0912](/creator/undefined) [@valuemaverick](/creator/undefined) [@brownmarubozu](/creator/undefined) [@ayusovalue](/creator/undefined) [@thebroskiusa](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [JPMorgan Chase (JPM)](/topic/$jpm) [DisChain (DIS)](/topic/$dis) [Netflix Inc (NFLX)](/topic/$nflx) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [FenerbahΓ§e Token (FB)](/topic/$fb) [SR Bancorp, Inc. (SRBK)](/topic/$srbk) [Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK)](/topic/$cnk) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM)](/topic/$bsm) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl) [Charter Communications Inc (CHTR)](/topic/$chtr) [Moody's Corporation (MCO)](/topic/$mco) [S&P Global Inc (SPGI)](/topic/$spgi) [Dillards Inc. (DDS)](/topic/$dds) [Walmart, Inc. (WMT)](/topic/$wmt) [Doug The Duck (DOUG)](/topic/$doug) [NVR, Inc. (NVR)](/topic/$nvr) [Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)](/topic/costco) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) [BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ)](/topic/$bj) [First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)](/topic/$fcnca) [Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)](/topic/$bkng) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "$SRBK announced a second 10% buyback finishing the first one in about [--] months. I like tracking the thrift conversions that announce buybacks as soon as they are eligible. $BVFL is another one that only took [--] months to buyback 10% of their shares before announcing a second one $SRBK is also a bank that increased the pace of buybacks in April (bought 188k shares through 5/12) normally a rarity when markets are volatile. SRBK has bought about 8% of the shares since announcing the buyback in September. Also like FCNCA insiders have been buying. $SRBK is also a bank that increased the pace of" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1943164305785889071) 2025-07-10T04:24Z 48.5K followers, 12.1K engagements "I wrote some thoughts on the NFLX/WBD deal the impact on movie theaters and a few notes on DIS's valuation $CNK $MCS $DIS $NFLX" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1998029649079902576) 2025-12-08T13:59Z 48.5K followers, 11.2K engagements "@AyusoValue Nice what [--] questions did you prompt it with" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2020563991852945794) 2026-02-08T18:22Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "@lhamtil Agree Its an awesome business. Although you need the studio content to tie it all together. Good news is Disney+ profits are quickly growing. Would be nice to sell ESPN" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2020940634052239611) 2026-02-09T19:19Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements "@DayumDawgg I dont disagree with any of that. But thats partly why the stock is cheap. And hopefully past is past regarding the political nonsense. Parks moat is still one of the best businesses out there and Disney+ now ramping profits maybe we get to see an inflection point. Well see" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021045290200072306) 2026-02-10T02:15Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements "They are super sophisticated and have almost always been on the cutting edge of technology. Their warehouse network and supply chain was world class very early on. But this tech prowess doesnt mean the stock is worth 45x either most efficiency gains accrue to customers in retail" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021401281483465107) 2026-02-11T01:49Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements "@TheBroskiUSA @firstadopter Not if 50% of humans are out of work (Unless I guess the AI robots develop their own economy with their own buying power π) But yes this fear is way overblown. Humans will adapt and remain gainfully employed over the long run" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021631351334875590) 2026-02-11T17:04Z 48.5K followers, 10.9K engagements "Completely agree. The farming analogy is what I was thinking about last night when I read that piece. The machine would have been viewed as existential to farm workers (and it was) but they didnt imagine all the new jobs that were created for them and their fellow humans because of it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021640795963502931 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021640795963502931" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021640795963502931) 2026-02-11T17:41Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements "@The_Pro_Invest Yes great point. I remember when both MCO and FICO traded at 10x. How times (and narratives) have changed" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021641666156015926) 2026-02-11T17:45Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements "I think your point on stickiness is very valid. I would be questioning whether you think pricing power will be stronger or weaker in the future. I wouldnt be totally dismissive of the threat given what I have seen Claude and others can do already in this realm. I do think these companies have a strong position. But I also think the stocks were probably a bit overvalued https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021657247001317691 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021657247001317691" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021657247001317691) 2026-02-11T18:47Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements "@JacksonWharf @firstadopter History suggests the exact opposite in 100% of previous technological revolutions" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021657763735384156) 2026-02-11T18:49Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements "First time in five years that Charter didn't lose video subscribers. Will be interesting to see if this is a blip on the radar in a longer term downtrend or if cord cutting has leveled off $CHTR" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2017339070645461190) 2026-01-30T20:48Z 48.8K followers, 10.6K engagements "META plans to spend $125b on capex this year. GOOG $180b (+100% growth yoy). Capex now 40% or more of expected sales at both. Just stunning. My hunch is hyperscalers will slow down their rapid pace of capex spending sooner than the market expects. They won't be capital light but I think capex takes a big step down in a few years or less as capacity catches up to demand. Will be painful if that occurs but that might be a buying opportunity for LT investors. Stocks will be a lot cheaper FCF will be much higher and their core businesses are in most cases still dominant. The stocks will get" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2019209960366768569) 2026-02-05T00:42Z 48.8K followers, 39.3K engagements "The debate on whether the SPGI/MCO ratings regulatory moat is immune to AI should not the main concern here (imo). If only a minority of your revenue (20-30%) comes from a segment that can be easily replicated with AI it could have a major impact on your business. The ratings moat can be fully intact but maybe the $20k CapIQ product (which has massive margins) is way overpriced. Im not suggesting this is my view but that is what I would be thinking about as a much greater likelihood than upsetting the ratings moat. My hunch is these companies will adapt and remain good businesses long term" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2021629971060371947) 2026-02-11T16:58Z 48.8K followers, 32.9K engagements "@stevemagness @pvtjokerus Our team did [--] mpw in the summer and early fall in HS. Obviously not the norm but I knew many others who did as well. I remember reading about Don Sage doing [---] mpw and that always inspired me to want to do more at the time" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2022878345654899066) 2026-02-15T03:39Z 48.8K followers, [---] engagements "Ted Weschler's $DDS showed the value created from [--] simple factors: High FCF + a very cheap stock When your stock trades at 25% FCF yield and it all goes to buybacks you create a reinvestment engine similar to a 25% ROIIC grower. Some of these are now deploying this playbook:" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1747975549778051573) 2024-01-18T13:33Z 48.8K followers, 84.7K engagements "Compounders are largely more expensive these days but when a stock trades at a 20% FCF yield and is buying back shares it has the same per share compounding potential as a 20% ROIC company that reinvests all earnings. Some thoughts:" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1943699021467443242) 2025-07-11T15:48Z 48.8K followers, 101.5K engagements "Illustration of the power of a royalty business with a nice moat: this was only a very modest growth business but it required no capital investment (similar to Sees Candies) which frees up all earnings to be paid out via dividends and buybacks. Final ingredient is low/reasonable valuation during much of those earlier days which increases the yield on the buyback. In addition to $41 of dividends over this period NATH bought back about 20% of its shares between 2003-04 and another 30% between 2009-13 Low growth + high ROIC + low valuation + good capital allocation is the formula that helped" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2014164837895463317) 2026-01-22T02:34Z 48.8K followers, 36.9K engagements "New post: updated thoughts on Netflix and theaters (CNK and MCS); and an earnings update on FCNCA. Analysts like precision but it can lead to overemphasizing asset sensitivity and expense growth. I think this overlooks the potential operating leverage here a few years out" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2015464502267937105) 2026-01-25T16:39Z 48.8K followers, [----] engagements "Walmart trading at 3x its average (pre-2024) valuation. [--] P/E and [--] P/FCF for a business that grew less than 4% CAGR last decade. $WMT" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2018691242637295950) 2026-02-03T14:21Z 48.8K followers, 24.3K engagements "I continue to think $NFLX buying WBD might lead to more content in theaters not less. Sarandos appeared in front of the senate this week and reiterated this view he gave recently: $CNK $MCS" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2019396482986828275) 2026-02-05T13:03Z 48.8K followers, [----] engagements "An illustration of a world class moat (with world class pricing power) $DIS https://t.co/IS1jIABJBi https://t.co/IS1jIABJBi" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2020936118623969635) 2026-02-09T19:01Z 48.8K followers, 14.7K engagements "I think Google is up roughly 100% since it was downgraded for losing the AI narrative. These narrative shifts are about as wide as the stocks gaps between [--] week highs and lows. And its probably better to buy the narratives low and sell them high Melius note this AM: AI is eating these guys too "Satya Lost the AI Narrative - Downgrade Microsoft to Hold" Melius note this AM: AI is eating these guys too "Satya Lost the AI Narrative - Downgrade Microsoft to Hold"" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2020938797480018240) 2026-02-09T19:12Z 48.8K followers, 27.4K engagements "New Post: Some thoughts on the "AI Fear Trade" along with some case studies and comments on some stocks I think offer good value in quieter corners of the market outside the headlines. The indiscriminate selling (and buying) of the last few weeks reminds me of Covid (when everything internet related was bought and everything else sold) and also of [----] when tech stocks crowded out the market for stocks like BRK and AZO which got very cheap). Large caps are still very expensive in my opinion but the knee-jerk narrative-driven selling is probably an overreaction" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2022325628872040821) 2026-02-13T15:02Z 48.8K followers, 10.1K engagements "Link here: with thoughts on $NRP $DIS $PBI $DOUG $SLV and a few other ideas: https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/ai-fear-trade-emotional-markets-avoiding https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/ai-fear-trade-emotional-markets-avoiding" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2022479185105588527) 2026-02-14T01:13Z 48.8K followers, [----] engagements "@CapitalObserver I was wondering the same thing about $NVR π" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2022479812384764321) 2026-02-14T01:15Z 48.8K followers, [----] engagements "I think this is the #1 reason why Buffett hardly ever paid more than [--] P/E and often paid 10x or less for stocks. Getting more cash in the near term reduces the reliance on being right about the very long term which is what you need to be when paying high multiples Todd Combs on the first question Charlie Munger ever asked him https://t.co/NbGaT5ined Todd Combs on the first question Charlie Munger ever asked him https://t.co/NbGaT5ined" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2022483052883050628) 2026-02-14T01:28Z 48.8K followers, 181.6K engagements "Im referring to public stocks. He does sometimes pay up when he can control the cash flow but even with full acquisitions there have been lots of smaller deals done at 10-15x or less. I estimate the most recent deal he did (buying the chemical business from OXY) is well under 10x normalized earnings https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022716400377159826 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022716400377159826" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2022716400377159826) 2026-02-14T16:55Z 48.8K followers, [----] engagements "3 main reasons: Writing has always been an important part of my investment process its fun to write and its fun to get paid for it. Its really that simple. Writing is necessary and will always be part of what I do. Substack isnt necessary but its a lot of fun. Probably wont be forever but I enjoy it for now" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2023128540536095003) 2026-02-15T20:13Z 48.8K followers, [---] engagements "Costco is up 3x in the last [--] years but who would have thought that BJ's Wholesale would be the better performing warehouse club store (up 4.5x over that period) $COST $BJ" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1900581777279746501) 2025-03-14T16:16Z 48.5K followers, 87K engagements "$SRBK is also a bank that increased the pace of buybacks in April (bought 188k shares through 5/12) normally a rarity when markets are volatile. SRBK has bought about 8% of the shares since announcing the buyback in September. Also like FCNCA insiders have been buying. $FCNCA has been ramping up their buyback. They've repurchased 9% of the shares in the last year. 10-q just came out and they bought another 126k shares in April (about 1% of SO); nice to see since banks often almost always pull back on buybacks whenever there is volatility. $FCNCA has been ramping up their buyback. They've" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1923395406756528427) 2025-05-16T15:09Z 48.4K followers, 22.1K engagements "I may have called it an evolution but its really not. Its simply based on where value opportunities are. [--] years ago compounders were largely cheap; now they are largely expensive. One day theyll be cheap again. For now best value is elsewhere. I think this game requires flexibility: fish where the fish are as Charlie once said @BillBrewsterTBB @JohnHuber72 I like hearing from John since hes had kind of a reverse Buffett evolution. Really appreciate the different viewpoint and the differentiation between a great business and a great stock. @BillBrewsterTBB @JohnHuber72 I like hearing from" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1926419933186965591) 2025-05-24T23:27Z 48.7K followers, 88.9K engagements "New post with some more comments on portfolio strategy current opportunities and the importance of being flexible I may have called it an evolution but its really not. Its simply based on where value opportunities are. [--] years ago compounders were largely cheap; now they are largely expensive. One day theyll be cheap again. For now best value is elsewhere. I think this game requires I may have called it an evolution but its really not. Its simply based on where value opportunities are. [--] years ago compounders were largely cheap; now they are largely expensive. One day theyll be cheap again." [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1930262253082751482) 2025-06-04T13:55Z 48.6K followers, 33.6K engagements "Another example of how bargains often hide in plain sight even among the largest stocks in the market (i.e. even large caps can get mispriced). $JPM is knocking on the door of a 3x in [--] years:" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940535095108292622) 2025-07-02T22:16Z 48.6K followers, 43.9K engagements "This is a remarkable outcome. I think it has more to do with capital allocation and starting valuations. I felt like ABNB had a better model because it didnt need Google to acquire customers but BKNG runs its business with more efficiency far less stock based comp and has used its FCF to buy back shares. ABNBs buyback doesnt create nearly as much value because so much of it is soaked up by the SBC. That portion of their buyback is essentially a cash compensation expense Manager mode (blue) vs Founder mode (pink). $ABNB $BKNG https://t.co/oYeMGzzVnI Manager mode (blue) vs Founder mode (pink)." [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1967585157826691477) 2025-09-15T13:43Z 48.7K followers, 73.9K engagements "Big tech capex exploding Oracle needs to invest billions Open AI will need to raise billions to fulfill that contract and others chip makers raising huge sums countless others will be entering the competition; the next 5-10 years will be a great case study on capital cycle theory (from Apollo's Daily Spark email)" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1968694492363444315) 2025-09-18T15:11Z 48.7K followers, 80K engagements "Cisco Nortel Lucent and numerous others all did this in the 1990's. Some of it was vendor financing: Lucent was owed over $6b at the end which used to be a lot of moneyπ; Some was equity: Cisco did over [--] acquisitions and equity deals. All to secure more sales volume. Buying revenue typically did not lead to good long term outcomes (to say the least). NVDA is far better than the web [---] infrastructure players so perhaps better outcomes will follow as well but the size and the structure of this deal (along with Oracle's RPO announcement) do remind me of things we saw in past bubbles. History" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1970689655889674292) 2025-09-24T03:20Z 48.7K followers, 75.2K engagements "For some more context the US currently uses about [----] TWh of power annually. So this [----] TWh demand estimate means future global datacenter power would be akin to 40% of the entire US electricity usage. This is why my two favorite AI stocks are $NRP and $BSM π However Im also not sure we can take current datacenter demand and extrapolate out to [----]. We need more electricity: AI data centers are set to consume [----] terawatt-hours of power demand by [----] equal to 4.4% of global electricity. In other words power demand from AI data centers is set to QUADRUPLE over the next [--] years. If" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1974533822550262090) 2025-10-04T17:55Z 48.7K followers, 54K engagements "The amount of capital needed to produce each dollar of incremental sales. A decade ago these [--] companies needed just $0.36 to produce an incremental dollar of sales growth. Today that same dollar of sales requires $1.71 (and that dollar of sales growth is far less impactful today vs a decade ago in % terms)" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1976754491388039413) 2025-10-10T20:59Z 48.7K followers, 68.3K engagements "Interesting that FCNCA tangible book value per share has grown from about $200 to $1600 over the past decade (23% CAGR) and the stock trades at book value implying little premium for the mgmt quality capital allocation decisions the deposit franchise a rebound in SVB fee income etc. I think big deals are likely behind them for a while but Fifth Third and Comerica are merging (regionals can still expand) and there will be a downturn again when FCNCA has always played offense. I estimate they're buying the BMO branches for around 1x the NII they'll be able to collect from those deposits and" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1979977068986200568) 2025-10-19T18:24Z 48.4K followers, 23.2K engagements "I wrote some thoughts on two different types of bank investments asset sensitivity and FCNCA's valuation (link in bio)" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1983196029676871699) 2025-10-28T15:35Z 48.4K followers, 16.2K engagements "Cowboys continue to disappoint but at least Jerry has Comstock. Lots of interesting well developments happening in the western Haynesville $CRK $BSM https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-ai-power-needs-left-a-jerry-jones-backed-texas-gas-giant-sitting-on-the-holy-grail-of-supply-100101645.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-ai-power-needs-left-a-jerry-jones-backed-texas-gas-giant-sitting-on-the-holy-grail-of-supply-100101645.html" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1986873345372266623) 2025-11-07T19:08Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements "Despite the narratives California is allowing for increased oil production. $CRC is wasting no time in submitting applications for new wells in California (some have already been approved). A new law (SB 237) took effect 1/1/26 and allows for up to [----] new well permits annually (up from virtually zero in recent years) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011451844216684693 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011451844216684693" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2011451844216684693) 2026-01-14T14:54Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements "@leevalueroach There is no real informational advantage in large caps but that doesnt mean large caps cant get very mispriced. JPM is up 3x in [--] years. Sometimes the edge is just being willing to look out a few years when everyone else is unwilling to look past a few quarters" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2012983822321598849) 2026-01-18T20:21Z 48.4K followers, 14.4K engagements "Yeah I think of these as intermediate term investments. Sometimes durable mature big caps get thrown out due to either company specific issues or short term macro fears. AAPL in [----] ORLY [----] META [----] NFLX [----] and GOOG 2025; also XOM VLO GE MMM and JPM were multibaggers over the past 3-5 years). I missed most of these but the good news is the market seems to offer a few of these each year. UNH might possibly be an example of this currently. Your point on options is interesting because many of these stocks are high quality lower beta and thus have cheap options." [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2012991520043892826) 2026-01-18T20:52Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "Smithfield's is taking one of the best long-term small cap compounders off the market. [--] years ago Nathan's Famous was a $3 stock. Since then they've paid $41 in total dividends and the stock now is valued at $102. @natstewart5 and I were recently talking about the power of owning royalties which is that they can grow without capital which allows owners the rare opportunity to extract cash from a business while also benefiting from growth. This have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too business model is sometimes under-appreciated $NATH https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013976405978063151" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2013976405978063151) 2026-01-21T14:06Z 48.4K followers, 37.6K engagements "Adobe might be just fine but Im old enough to remember when people said that iPhone and Macs were fun for consumers but the enterprise world was locked into BlackBerry. Similar story with Google apps (docs sheets etc) vs Excel Sometimes the consumer tools move upmarket $ADBE competition myth debunked in just a few sentences Its a professionals business generating most its revenues from enterprises This is a FACT https://t.co/53vq3BtN4l $ADBE competition myth debunked in just a few sentences Its a professionals business generating most its revenues from enterprises This is a FACT" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2014042231439507954) 2026-01-21T18:27Z 48.4K followers, 24.9K engagements "I remember you writing about it many years ago. You had this one figured out. One reason I like recurring revenue businesses with no debt because there is a built in call option: swapping debt for equity. The ability to take on debt to buy out owners is a nice arrow in the quiver when the stock is cheap. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014184218813685790 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014184218813685790" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2014184218813685790) 2026-01-22T03:51Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "FCNCA took a big bite of its shares over the past [--] months:" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2014700217786913279) 2026-01-23T14:02Z 48.4K followers, 16.4K engagements "Peter Lynch had a chapter in his second book on them but the best thing to do to learn is to study a recent conversion. I'd recommend picking one that converted sometime in the last few years and read the prospectus. BVFL had a second step conversion in May [----]. The prospectus has excellent detail on how the conversion works how the funding works etc" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2015137675368374477) 2026-01-24T19:00Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "One of the greatest track records of all time. And he did it his own way: diversified cheap hated stocks hundreds of investments over the years a repeatable process numbers based didnt focus on moats per se didnt need catalysts bought cheap stocks and waited. Understood the basic concept that the market is short term focused and if you had patience you had a big edge. My main takeaway from Schloss isnt his strategy per se though I like it. But it is that he did things his own way with an independent mind. Didnt worry about what his friends or his clients thought about his stocks. He was close" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2015818534735978686) 2026-01-26T16:06Z 48.4K followers, 49.6K engagements "Some simple math on productivity gains. I think it's commonly assumed that a 10% increase in productivity is easy to achieve with AI and for some companies it might be but unlikely for the overall market. Non-tech S&P operating margins are around 9% and the median margin for all public US companies (including tech) in the US is under 10% but let's assume 10% op margins: This is $100 and $10 of profits or $90 of costs or $1.11 of output per dollar of input costs. A 10% increase in productivity takes this business to $1.22 output per $1 input: either sales go to $110 with the same $90 of costs" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2015832161585181119) 2026-01-26T17:00Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "When I see this picture I see an illustrated explanation for why a commodity priced at say $110 with a cash production cost of $30 is not a long-term sustainable circumstance. Lots of people with lots of money are interested in that $80 gap and despite supply fundamentals which do seem compelling this excess profit doesn't last forever $SLV I've been attending the VRIC (Vancouver Resource Investment Conference) for nearly [--] years. Mostly to take the temperature of the metals and mining industry for my investments in the sector/industry. It's a great show and the investor turnouts have" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2015845510477738063) 2026-01-26T17:53Z 48.4K followers, 30.6K engagements "Yes its really impressive and I think demand for Claude code and others will keep growing fast. I bucket this in the wholesale demand category which is of course real demand but my question is about how it gets monetized. My thinking is these productivity gains will accrue to customers. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016136719548969085 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016136719548969085" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2016136719548969085) 2026-01-27T13:10Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "New post with some thoughts on AI productivity shortages and gluts:" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2016173059002998852) 2026-01-27T15:34Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "@greg_ip @jturek18 To me its an Occams Razor. Momentum begets momentum. Speculation. All kinds of fundamental reasons get attributed to try and explain it and some of that might have gotten things going like kindling but none of those reasons seem to justify the magnitude of the move" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2016224480645751195) 2026-01-27T18:59Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "WSJ article highlights the major push toward production increases with gold and silver where they are currently: https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/gold-prices-mining-south-africa-2226154cmod=Searchresults&pos=1&page=1 https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/gold-prices-mining-south-africa-2226154cmod=Searchresults&pos=1&page=1" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2016270833321177195) 2026-01-27T22:03Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "People try to rationally explain a price movement (and there are some fundamental reasons) but Occam's razor is helpful here: simplest explanation is usually correct one. price going up makes more people want to buy. I think that's responsible for a big chunk of this move" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2017081279192154145) 2026-01-30T03:43Z 48.4K followers, 16.2K engagements "Interesting how much greater the net flows into silver ETFs vs gold this month considering the assets in gold ETF's are roughly [--] times the amount in silver $SLV $GLD People try to rationally explain a price movement (and there are some fundamental reasons) but Occam's razor is helpful here: simplest explanation is usually correct one. price going up makes more people want to buy. I think that's responsible for a big chunk of this move https://t.co/GmKQCiupuz People try to rationally explain a price movement (and there are some fundamental reasons) but Occam's razor is helpful here: simplest" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2017083862644359349) 2026-01-30T03:54Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "@JasonLiebel @treiner5 Yep it usually is one of the largest expenses these companies have. Not including it is akin to not counting the labor expense at Chipotle or Starbucks" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2017340326155866429) 2026-01-30T20:53Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "@AgAuUOil @Ole_S_Hansen Youre correct. It was panic selling and forced liquidations. And gold isnt much different same moves as silver just less extreme. I would not call either safe havens at current prices that are 3-4x production costs" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2017476087551332369) 2026-01-31T05:52Z 48.4K followers, [--] engagements "@lhamtil That year when the Giants went to the World Series I remember there was a stretch in that postseason where if they actually pitched to him and he didnt hit a home run it was almost surprising" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2018047409398407230) 2026-02-01T19:42Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements "@CapitalObserver Same with Amazon which is already negative ttm (counting the 20b SBC as an expense)" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2019170771013365836) 2026-02-04T22:06Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements "I think so. A slowdown in capex will likely be the result of the realization that the returns on all that spending was lower than hoped. I don't think that will be viewed favorably but could be a buying opportunity. A recent past example was Amazon realizing they had excess retail warehouse space in [----] and slowing spending. The excess capacity was viewed as bad news but it sowed the seeds of a recovery in retail margins and free cash flow later https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019226391342915673 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019226391342915673" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/2019226391342915673) 2026-02-05T01:47Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements "They'll have around $100m in cash left after debt paydown at year end so they'll have one or two more diet seasons quite a big ask $WTW" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/629304092834271232) 2015-08-06T14:52Z 48.5K followers, [--] engagements "Back in June I did a presentation on Tencent for @manualofideas. Here are my slides on $TCEHY: http://basehitinvesting.com/one-of-the-worlds-widest-moats/ http://basehitinvesting.com/one-of-the-worlds-widest-moats/" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/897827759510237185) 2017-08-16T14:29Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements "One of the best interviews with Munger that Ive seen in a while. Really interesting to hear his perspective from his early days in business and his experiences running his partnership. https://youtu.be/S9HgIGzOENA https://youtu.be/S9HgIGzOENA" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/944252044147412998) 2017-12-22T17:03Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements "I just reread these posts that I wrote [--] years ago and I glanced at my old watchlist. The stocks that looked like really cheap statistical bargains had mediocre returns and the compounders that looked expensive were actually bargains. The ROIC really is key over time. High ROIC always wins in the end given a long enough time horizon πΈ The importance of ROIC a couple of splendid articles va @JohnHuber72 - Part 1: https://t.co/DcWULoO3kk - Part 2: https://t.co/OwYR0lZe8H #ValueInvesting #ROIC https://t.co/WpgVXSPu1R High ROIC always wins in the end given a long enough time horizon πΈ The" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1032639695472209920) 2018-08-23T14:44Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "Facebook is a lightning rod right now and the negative sentiment is extreme but I think the stock is really undervalued. I wrote a note to my investors this week with some thoughts: $FB http://sabercapitalmgt.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Facebook-is-Undervalued-2018-11-30.pdf http://sabercapitalmgt.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Facebook-is-Undervalued-2018-11-30.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1070358023120531456) 2018-12-05T16:43Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "Hes called Canadas Warren Buffett. His investment approach seems more focused on stitching together businesses when he could buy them on the cheap: I didnt know what goodwill was for a long time. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-12-21/-canada-s-warren-buffett-jim-pattison-drives-own-pickup-truck https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-12-21/-canada-s-warren-buffett-jim-pattison-drives-own-pickup-truck" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1076662420310028291) 2018-12-23T02:14Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "S&P is now down 20%. Who knows what the economy (or the market) does next year but if you view stocks as businesses this is one of those times that comes along once in a while where its great to be buying. Lots of value out there. Fun times at the office now. Merry Christmas" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1077274551719989248) 2018-12-24T18:47Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "Wells Fargo got Fed approval to buy back $23.1 billion over the coming [--] months which is 11% of its shares at current price. Including the 4.3% dividend it's a 15% total "yield" at the current price. All of the big four banks have double digit total yields: $WFC $BAC $C $JPM" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1145781980132511745) 2019-07-01T19:51Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "One of Buffett's most underrated skills is independent thought. He follows his common sense principles but avoids the dogma that often plagues many investors. Great businesses make best investments but he bought oil futures silver & bet on interest rates when odds made sense" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1151849280275136512) 2019-07-18T13:40Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "Much emphasis goes into finding hidden bargains when some of the best bargains in some of the best companies are hiding in plain sight. Liquidity does not mean efficiently priced & fair values don't move by 50% (or $300 billion) in a few months. Large caps can get very mispriced" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1182720647442653190) 2019-10-11T18:12Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "This is such great advice from Munger when it comes to portfolio management. Everyone's trying to be smarter search deeper and solve the most complex problems which makes those areas very competitive places to play. Just avoiding difficult things is so simple but not easy" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1207346166993694720) 2019-12-18T17:05Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "New Post: Warren Buffett [----] Email Exchange on Microsoft Saber Capital Management $MSFT $FB $GOOG http://sabercapitalmgt.com/warren-buffett-1997-email-exchange-on-microsoft/ http://sabercapitalmgt.com/warren-buffett-1997-email-exchange-on-microsoft/" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1207637925892173825) 2019-12-19T12:24Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "On investment ideas the only thing that matters is the quality of the idea not the novelty. In many areas of life there is a direct link between originality and quality but in investing the two have a random relationship" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1230145795388846080) 2020-02-19T15:03Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "I'm not sure it was Warren or Todd/Ted who sold DAL/LUV but I do think one of the most underrated qualities of WEB's investment prowess is his ability to change is mind when he realizes the situation has changed" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1246265199331553282) 2020-04-04T02:35Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "In the Panic of [----] our economy plunged. Steel output -60% iron -55% imports -26% unemployment soared doors closed rent wasn't paid. Economic output cratered for [--] months. GDP down 10% in [----] but had quarters down 25%. Yet stocks rose 44% in [----]. https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1882797.pdf https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1882797.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1259135839914917888) 2020-05-09T14:59Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "It's a great point; counterintuitive in a way but true. ROIC's are surprisingly persistent. Good businesses tend to keep being good. FT piece mentioned Nick Sleep's COST & AMZN buys in [----]. As a smart investor told me; keeping it is more impressive than the original purchase Let your winners run cc Claude Shannon https://t.co/j1BV5PHA1x Let your winners run cc Claude Shannon https://t.co/j1BV5PHA1x" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1294362025594949632) 2020-08-14T19:55Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "A lot of air time being given to Berkshire's investment in $GOLD but it's less than 0.2% of BRK's equity capital; worth about $0.23 per B share. AAPL is worth $47 per B share. A 1% daily change in AAPL's stock price is worth more than double the entire $GOLD investment" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1294721038157336578) 2020-08-15T19:42Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "23 years ago today Jeff Raikes wrote an email to Warren Buffett with a succinct pitch on why MSFT would create so much value. The best businesses earn high high returns on the capital that someone else invested. I wrote a post on this idea last year: http://sabercapitalmgt.com/warren-buffett-1997-email-exchange-on-microsoft/ http://sabercapitalmgt.com/warren-buffett-1997-email-exchange-on-microsoft/" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1295449014826160128) 2020-08-17T19:54Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "Probably the coolest chart I've seen in [----]. This is why Buffett says betting against America is a sucker's bet. So many hardships but also so much resourcefulness and resilience in the past [--] months. This is the most bullish chart in the world. New business formations https://t.co/oZaIC92uk8 This is the most bullish chart in the world. New business formations https://t.co/oZaIC92uk8" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1317640463508250624) 2020-10-18T01:35Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "$FB keeps building their moat. The quality of the human capital at that company is remarkable and management continues to impress despite the constant burden of being scapegoated by both sides of the political arena. Zuckerberg really is one of the great CEOs Starting today people across India will be able to send money through WhatsApp πΈ This secure payments experience makes transferring money just as easy as sending a message. https://t.co/bM1hMEB7sb Starting today people across India will be able to send money through WhatsApp πΈ This secure payments experience makes transferring money" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1324536153643585537) 2020-11-06T02:16Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "1/ Best thing I've read this week: Post by @packyM on how "API companies" are building out moats by providing critical functions that their customers can't (nor want to) replicate at the same level of cost or quality h/t @thesovagroup https://notboring.substack.com/p/apis-all-the-way-down-audio https://notboring.substack.com/p/apis-all-the-way-down-audio" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1336734448340054018) 2020-12-09T18:08Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "Some thoughts on mean reversion and the Power Law; Four reasons why certain companies' size and profitability seem to defy capitalism's law of gravity: https://sabercapitalmgt.com/end-of-mean-reversion/ https://sabercapitalmgt.com/end-of-mean-reversion/" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1346171844529967104) 2021-01-04T19:09Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "I actually think the boom in SPACs is going to be a great thing for public market investors. All this new supply of stock will be a problem in the next downturn but then there will be opportunities to invest in a variety of quality companies that wouldnt otherwise be public yet" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1360225792727334915) 2021-02-12T13:54Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "I talked with the Columbia Business School students for the latest edition of Graham and Doddsville Newsletter. We discussed Saber's investment approach as well as our investment in $ETSY. Thanks to CBS for having me Enjoyed the conversation. https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/valueinvesting/sites/valueinvesting/files/Graham%20%26%20Doddsville_Issue%2041_v15.pdf https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/valueinvesting/sites/valueinvesting/files/Graham%20%26%20Doddsville_Issue%2041_v15.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1362412133452046347) 2021-02-18T14:42Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "This is a great point. I created a faux Shopify business last year just to get to know their products better and the first thing they emailed me was a mini-course on how to advertise on Facebook and Instagram. SHOP is an incredible business but it's also a farm team for FB" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1365514379882622976) 2021-02-27T04:09Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "A great description of how big the opportunity cost of time is; and how important it is to avoid distractions and get in that extra hour of deep work day after day. Doesn't seem too important on any given day but it compounds. via @andy_matuschak https://notes.andymatuschak.org/z4SDCZQeRo4xFEQ8H4qrSqd68ucpgE6LU155CstackedNotes=z6bci25mVUBNFdVWSrQNKr6u7AZ1jFzfTVbMF&stackedNotes=z6UDDkom8Aifg6mLdjT1sPtbMBweCmpyTwmJT https://notes.andymatuschak.org/z4SDCZQeRo4xFEQ8H4qrSqd68ucpgE6LU155CstackedNotes=z6bci25mVUBNFdVWSrQNKr6u7AZ1jFzfTVbMF&stackedNotes=z6UDDkom8Aifg6mLdjT1sPtbMBweCmpyTwmJT" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1371077738338091008) 2021-03-14T12:36Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "One of the coolest pictures of all time: Everyone in the world except Michael Collins. Shows Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin descending in the Lunar Module with every other human (past and present) somewhere inside the frame of the photo. What a moment. h/t @LibertyRPF" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1393406069813260289) 2021-05-15T03:21Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "$PINS Head of Engineering explaining why it's so hard to consider leaving off the cloud even when they're sending $300 million/yr to AWS (paywall) https://www.theinformation.com/articles/how-pinterest-learned-to-control-cloud-costs https://www.theinformation.com/articles/how-pinterest-learned-to-control-cloud-costs" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1430146520041639937) 2021-08-24T12:34Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "$FB's EV to gross profits is 9x. Hard pressed to find a business with 80% gross margins that continues to grow at double digit rates that is cheaper (I like how @theTIKR added EV/GP to their historical charts; a metric I like to track across Saber's watchlist)" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1468247853374001159) 2021-12-07T15:55Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "Terry Smith's letter is one of my favorites. Simple common sense way of allocating capital. If you're a long term investor it's important to keep in mind that as long as you follow his rule #2 (Don't overpay) the portfolio will return what the businesses return over time" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1481978013633949699) 2022-01-14T13:14Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "Jamie Dimon is really on his A-game for this morning's $JPM call. "I wish I could take this company private and just own the whole thing" π One of the few earnings calls I'd rather listen to than read" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1482004097842753538) 2022-01-14T14:58Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "If you have a business that doesnt take any capital Buffett describes why capex light businesses are naturally hedged against inflation. I think this is partly why he was buying a basket of ad agency stocks in the 1970s. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/04/30/inflation-swindles-almost-everybody-says-warren-buffett.html https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/04/30/inflation-swindles-almost-everybody-says-warren-buffett.html" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1525423537456041984) 2022-05-14T10:31Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "A concept that Buffett beautifully articulates is if you are a net buyer of stocks you should want them to fall not rise. I love the simplicity but also the dissonance here because individual investors who earn more than they spend and internalize this mindset gain a huge edge" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1529213322679455744) 2022-05-24T21:30Z 48.7K followers, [----] engagements "Impressive: Dimon has never sold a share of $JPM" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1558993350652731393) 2022-08-15T01:45Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "Higher margins aren't ideal if a higher ROIC could be achieved with lower margin. What matters is return on incremental capital. Gross margin isn't most important; it's gross profit dollars earned on each dollar invested. I like this thinking and the example from $HD" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1560818290058006529) 2022-08-20T02:37Z 48.7K followers, [----] engagements "The filter Combs described he & Buffett using is is one of the most elegant "screeners" I've seen. Really gets you thinking about durability. Can't replicate confidence interval but I attempted it using @theTIKR: 5%/yr growth 2005-2019 & [--] P/E. Very few make that cut This is one of the best "screens" I have seen for Buffett-type stock ideas What stocks (if any) are going to be: 15x EPS next year 90% sure to have higher EPS in [--] years 50/50 chance of compounding at 7% a year Name some stocks that fit this screen https://t.co/hZkqkWdX6X This is one of the best "screens" I have seen for" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1611143230858428418) 2023-01-05T23:30Z 48.7K followers, 149.8K engagements "I remember when Buffett described big tech companies as great because they needed no capital to grow. This was true for a while but it would be interesting to get his updated views as BRK (and others usually thought of as capex heavy) are now capital lighter by comparison" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1625910659337662464) 2023-02-15T17:31Z 48.7K followers, 103.8K engagements "@HML_Compounder @KYRRadio Its adding an extra payment each year. Bi-weekly would be [--] half payments a year or [--] full mortgage payments instead of [--]. You could also accomplish a similar outcome by just adding 1/12th principal to every payment each month" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1640088660967145474) 2023-03-26T20:29Z 48.7K followers, 189.8K engagements "A common theme of Buffetts investments (esp recently) is high FCF yields accompanied by buybacks and dividends. Seems to prefer buybacks/divs vs reinvestment cos; I wonder if it is b/c he likes certainty. He knows hes going to get the 14% FCF yield here https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/warren-buffett-why-he-bought-5-japanese-trading-houses.html__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/warren-buffett-why-he-bought-5-japanese-trading-houses.html__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1646142976765095939) 2023-04-12T13:27Z 48.7K followers, 110.9K engagements "One of my favorite parts of BRK meeting is the Buffett & Munger side references to little investments they made decades ago (Belridge Oil Duck Club etc) Latest: Munger reveals he gets $70000/yr oil royalties from a [----] investment WB: What did you pay for that CM: $1000 π" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1656347934210785293) 2023-05-10T17:18Z 48.7K followers, 90.7K engagements "Each quarter JPM earns terrific ROE and NII growth and every quarter they come up with a litany of reasons why they wont earn those returns going forward. Somewhat reminds me of Thiels classic Monopolies are always telling you why they arent monopolies" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1679838830118019074) 2023-07-14T13:02Z 48.8K followers, 34.7K engagements "Buffett invested in [--] Japanese stocks in [----]. That initial basket investment is up over 3x in [--] years a 44% CAGR on that initial purchase. Some thoughts from my @JournalyticApp entry today Might publish these later:" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1683863244203515910) 2023-07-25T15:34Z 48.7K followers, 143.9K engagements "@TrungTPhan He used the phrase Bayesian priors twice for good measure just to leave no doubt in peoples mind that hes smart π" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1710395364170178804) 2023-10-06T20:43Z 48.7K followers, 30.5K engagements "$MUSA is a 10-bagger in [--] yrs (26% CAGR). Great example of "boring" stock in low growth industry (gas stations) that created huge value (like NVR AZO ORLY). [--] key ingredients: consistent buybacks + persistently below avg valuation. The boring part helps sustain the latter" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1769915904832184364) 2024-03-19T02:36Z 48.7K followers, 52.2K engagements "0 to 500m in his personal account π (his salary was $100k with no options). Theres a quote in Lowensteins book where someone in the 70s said something like: he made so much money so fast in his PA it was unbelievable. Special situations extreme mispriced even commodities Warren Buffett went from $0 to $500MM in [--] years. This is excluding Berkshire. He did it with basically zero contributions. It was stuff like: Delta Duck Club Bayuk Cigars (@turtlebay_io had a great piece on this) Mid-Continent Tab Card Korean stocks Wish I knew them all. Warren Buffett went from $0 to $500MM in [--] years." [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1800992424208069035) 2024-06-12T20:43Z 48.7K followers, 52.8K engagements "Wrote some thoughts on the general market conditions and the types of opportunities it might be creating over the next decade" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1811737260968079406) 2024-07-12T12:19Z 48.7K followers, 53.7K engagements "Buffett has a do as I say not as I do approach to leverage. His advice to avoid leverage is genuine because he knows it will cause more harm than good for most but he and Munger both used it regularly in their portfolios in the 60s and 70s Also Buffett: 20x levering his sister's $BRK position so she can buy as much of it as possible [----] https://t.co/0oC4JY02ko Also Buffett: 20x levering his sister's $BRK position so she can buy as much of it as possible [----] https://t.co/0oC4JY02ko" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1847088834036539640) 2024-10-18T01:34Z 48.7K followers, 37.1K engagements "Dirt is one of the best investors I know. Buffett once said he could do 50% per year today if he was managing $1m or so; Dirt is an example of a guy doing it in a way that Buffett once did (and investing the way Buffett probably would be today) [----] Performance: +42.4% CAGR Since Inception (July 2019): +53.5% This will be my last post discussing returns. [----] Performance: +42.4% CAGR Since Inception (July 2019): +53.5% This will be my last post discussing returns" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1874997033846936035) 2025-01-03T01:51Z 48.7K followers, 79.1K engagements "Very interesting to reread this Buffett piece from [--] decades ago. Actually wild Buffett wrote this. https://t.co/mTBDaCRTK3 https://t.co/GH5WdhfFO1 Actually wild Buffett wrote this. https://t.co/mTBDaCRTK3 https://t.co/GH5WdhfFO1" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1908206229509333229) 2025-04-04T17:13Z 48.7K followers, 47.5K engagements "Found this surprising when I saw it: $AMZN has underperformed the S&P YTD [--] yr [--] yr and [--] yr periods. Says nothing about what future performance will be but still surprising given the reputation as one of the Mag 7's. Also [--] yrs ago in April [----] it would have been hard to imagine a better positioned company than Amazon to handle the onslaught of demand and the shift in retail to ecommerce during Covid. This is also an interesting case study regarding capital cycle theory. Amazon (by its own account) overestimated demand and after a whopping $300 billion of capex over the last [--] years it was" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1914497730530996670) 2025-04-22T01:53Z 48.7K followers, 42.8K engagements "It's amazing how fast sentiment changes in the stock market. Liberation Day and all the fear surrounding it seems like a distant memory. It's so interesting to observe how the market just moves from one theme to another; tariffs are still an issue but it's not the lead story that people want to discuss. Reality wasn't as bad then as economic experts made it seem. On flip side I think the predictions around AI productivity are likely too optimistic now (I heard a well known tech titan suggest that a 10% productivity bump in the $70 trillion service economy is possible. sounds reasonable at" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/1958931955694604778) 2025-08-22T16:39Z 48.7K followers, 24.5K engagements "In [----] @JoshTarasoff did this AMZN presentation. It's the best writeup I've seen on AMZN. At the end he says he thinks AMZN can do 30% CAGR for next [--] yrs. [--] yrs in AMZN has compounded at 38%. But regardless of result it's great thinking: http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/amzn-valuexvail-2012-josh-tarasoff1.pdf http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/amzn-valuexvail-2012-josh-tarasoff1.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/927977536042274817) 2017-11-07T19:14Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "This website is really a goldmine. Transcripts of BRK meetings going back to [----] interview archives clips and other Buffett information. Great work by CNBC. https://buffett.cnbc.com/annual-meetings/ https://buffett.cnbc.com/annual-meetings/" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/993590162591535104) 2018-05-07T20:35Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements "Another great compilation. Munger in [---] pages. I'll treat this as sort of a warmup for the full workout: the [----] page Buffett compilation. [--] pages a day gets you through both in [--] months. https://x.com/AustinValue/status/998667676569473026 Compilation of everything Munger: https://t.co/WZ8mHWAuep https://x.com/AustinValue/status/998667676569473026 Compilation of everything Munger: https://t.co/WZ8mHWAuep" [X Link](https://x.com/JohnHuber72/status/998960875590619137) 2018-05-22T16:16Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@JohnHuber72 John HuberJohn Huber posts on X about stocks, in the, business, this is the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence finance 44.07% stocks 25.42% technology brands 13.56% cryptocurrencies 3.39% financial services 3.39% social networks 1.69% countries 1.69% exchanges 0.85% currencies 0.85% products 0.85%
Social topic influence stocks #766, in the 12.71%, business 11.86%, this is 9.32%, investment 8.47%, ai 6.78%, the most 4.24%, company 3.39%, $jpm 3.39%, money 3.39%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @jacksonwharf @capitalobserver @compound248 @smallcapcompass @cmo040958 @lhamtil @dayumdawgg @firstadopter @cjzebra132 @natstewart5 @thetikr @grok @wadhwanica @dusk_lim @evfcfaddict @jszhang0912 @valuemaverick @brownmarubozu @ayusovalue @thebroskiusa
Top assets mentioned JPMorgan Chase (JPM) DisChain (DIS) Netflix Inc (NFLX) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) FenerbahΓ§e Token (FB) SR Bancorp, Inc. (SRBK) Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Black Stone Minerals, L.P. (BSM) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Charter Communications Inc (CHTR) Moody's Corporation (MCO) S&P Global Inc (SPGI) Dillards Inc. (DDS) Walmart, Inc. (WMT) Doug The Duck (DOUG) NVR, Inc. (NVR) Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Costco Hot Dog (COST) BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"$SRBK announced a second 10% buyback finishing the first one in about [--] months. I like tracking the thrift conversions that announce buybacks as soon as they are eligible. $BVFL is another one that only took [--] months to buyback 10% of their shares before announcing a second one $SRBK is also a bank that increased the pace of buybacks in April (bought 188k shares through 5/12) normally a rarity when markets are volatile. SRBK has bought about 8% of the shares since announcing the buyback in September. Also like FCNCA insiders have been buying. $SRBK is also a bank that increased the pace of"
X Link 2025-07-10T04:24Z 48.5K followers, 12.1K engagements
"I wrote some thoughts on the NFLX/WBD deal the impact on movie theaters and a few notes on DIS's valuation $CNK $MCS $DIS $NFLX"
X Link 2025-12-08T13:59Z 48.5K followers, 11.2K engagements
"@AyusoValue Nice what [--] questions did you prompt it with"
X Link 2026-02-08T18:22Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@lhamtil Agree Its an awesome business. Although you need the studio content to tie it all together. Good news is Disney+ profits are quickly growing. Would be nice to sell ESPN"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:19Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@DayumDawgg I dont disagree with any of that. But thats partly why the stock is cheap. And hopefully past is past regarding the political nonsense. Parks moat is still one of the best businesses out there and Disney+ now ramping profits maybe we get to see an inflection point. Well see"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:15Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements
"They are super sophisticated and have almost always been on the cutting edge of technology. Their warehouse network and supply chain was world class very early on. But this tech prowess doesnt mean the stock is worth 45x either most efficiency gains accrue to customers in retail"
X Link 2026-02-11T01:49Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@TheBroskiUSA @firstadopter Not if 50% of humans are out of work (Unless I guess the AI robots develop their own economy with their own buying power π) But yes this fear is way overblown. Humans will adapt and remain gainfully employed over the long run"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:04Z 48.5K followers, 10.9K engagements
"Completely agree. The farming analogy is what I was thinking about last night when I read that piece. The machine would have been viewed as existential to farm workers (and it was) but they didnt imagine all the new jobs that were created for them and their fellow humans because of it. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021640795963502931 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021640795963502931"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:41Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@The_Pro_Invest Yes great point. I remember when both MCO and FICO traded at 10x. How times (and narratives) have changed"
X Link 2026-02-11T17:45Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements
"I think your point on stickiness is very valid. I would be questioning whether you think pricing power will be stronger or weaker in the future. I wouldnt be totally dismissive of the threat given what I have seen Claude and others can do already in this realm. I do think these companies have a strong position. But I also think the stocks were probably a bit overvalued https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021657247001317691 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021657247001317691"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:47Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@JacksonWharf @firstadopter History suggests the exact opposite in 100% of previous technological revolutions"
X Link 2026-02-11T18:49Z 48.5K followers, [---] engagements
"First time in five years that Charter didn't lose video subscribers. Will be interesting to see if this is a blip on the radar in a longer term downtrend or if cord cutting has leveled off $CHTR"
X Link 2026-01-30T20:48Z 48.8K followers, 10.6K engagements
"META plans to spend $125b on capex this year. GOOG $180b (+100% growth yoy). Capex now 40% or more of expected sales at both. Just stunning. My hunch is hyperscalers will slow down their rapid pace of capex spending sooner than the market expects. They won't be capital light but I think capex takes a big step down in a few years or less as capacity catches up to demand. Will be painful if that occurs but that might be a buying opportunity for LT investors. Stocks will be a lot cheaper FCF will be much higher and their core businesses are in most cases still dominant. The stocks will get"
X Link 2026-02-05T00:42Z 48.8K followers, 39.3K engagements
"The debate on whether the SPGI/MCO ratings regulatory moat is immune to AI should not the main concern here (imo). If only a minority of your revenue (20-30%) comes from a segment that can be easily replicated with AI it could have a major impact on your business. The ratings moat can be fully intact but maybe the $20k CapIQ product (which has massive margins) is way overpriced. Im not suggesting this is my view but that is what I would be thinking about as a much greater likelihood than upsetting the ratings moat. My hunch is these companies will adapt and remain good businesses long term"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:58Z 48.8K followers, 32.9K engagements
"@stevemagness @pvtjokerus Our team did [--] mpw in the summer and early fall in HS. Obviously not the norm but I knew many others who did as well. I remember reading about Don Sage doing [---] mpw and that always inspired me to want to do more at the time"
X Link 2026-02-15T03:39Z 48.8K followers, [---] engagements
"Ted Weschler's $DDS showed the value created from [--] simple factors: High FCF + a very cheap stock When your stock trades at 25% FCF yield and it all goes to buybacks you create a reinvestment engine similar to a 25% ROIIC grower. Some of these are now deploying this playbook:"
X Link 2024-01-18T13:33Z 48.8K followers, 84.7K engagements
"Compounders are largely more expensive these days but when a stock trades at a 20% FCF yield and is buying back shares it has the same per share compounding potential as a 20% ROIC company that reinvests all earnings. Some thoughts:"
X Link 2025-07-11T15:48Z 48.8K followers, 101.5K engagements
"Illustration of the power of a royalty business with a nice moat: this was only a very modest growth business but it required no capital investment (similar to Sees Candies) which frees up all earnings to be paid out via dividends and buybacks. Final ingredient is low/reasonable valuation during much of those earlier days which increases the yield on the buyback. In addition to $41 of dividends over this period NATH bought back about 20% of its shares between 2003-04 and another 30% between 2009-13 Low growth + high ROIC + low valuation + good capital allocation is the formula that helped"
X Link 2026-01-22T02:34Z 48.8K followers, 36.9K engagements
"New post: updated thoughts on Netflix and theaters (CNK and MCS); and an earnings update on FCNCA. Analysts like precision but it can lead to overemphasizing asset sensitivity and expense growth. I think this overlooks the potential operating leverage here a few years out"
X Link 2026-01-25T16:39Z 48.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Walmart trading at 3x its average (pre-2024) valuation. [--] P/E and [--] P/FCF for a business that grew less than 4% CAGR last decade. $WMT"
X Link 2026-02-03T14:21Z 48.8K followers, 24.3K engagements
"I continue to think $NFLX buying WBD might lead to more content in theaters not less. Sarandos appeared in front of the senate this week and reiterated this view he gave recently: $CNK $MCS"
X Link 2026-02-05T13:03Z 48.8K followers, [----] engagements
"An illustration of a world class moat (with world class pricing power) $DIS https://t.co/IS1jIABJBi https://t.co/IS1jIABJBi"
X Link 2026-02-09T19:01Z 48.8K followers, 14.7K engagements
"I think Google is up roughly 100% since it was downgraded for losing the AI narrative. These narrative shifts are about as wide as the stocks gaps between [--] week highs and lows. And its probably better to buy the narratives low and sell them high Melius note this AM: AI is eating these guys too "Satya Lost the AI Narrative - Downgrade Microsoft to Hold" Melius note this AM: AI is eating these guys too "Satya Lost the AI Narrative - Downgrade Microsoft to Hold""
X Link 2026-02-09T19:12Z 48.8K followers, 27.4K engagements
"New Post: Some thoughts on the "AI Fear Trade" along with some case studies and comments on some stocks I think offer good value in quieter corners of the market outside the headlines. The indiscriminate selling (and buying) of the last few weeks reminds me of Covid (when everything internet related was bought and everything else sold) and also of [----] when tech stocks crowded out the market for stocks like BRK and AZO which got very cheap). Large caps are still very expensive in my opinion but the knee-jerk narrative-driven selling is probably an overreaction"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:02Z 48.8K followers, 10.1K engagements
"Link here: with thoughts on $NRP $DIS $PBI $DOUG $SLV and a few other ideas: https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/ai-fear-trade-emotional-markets-avoiding https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/ai-fear-trade-emotional-markets-avoiding"
X Link 2026-02-14T01:13Z 48.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@CapitalObserver I was wondering the same thing about $NVR π"
X Link 2026-02-14T01:15Z 48.8K followers, [----] engagements
"I think this is the #1 reason why Buffett hardly ever paid more than [--] P/E and often paid 10x or less for stocks. Getting more cash in the near term reduces the reliance on being right about the very long term which is what you need to be when paying high multiples Todd Combs on the first question Charlie Munger ever asked him https://t.co/NbGaT5ined Todd Combs on the first question Charlie Munger ever asked him https://t.co/NbGaT5ined"
X Link 2026-02-14T01:28Z 48.8K followers, 181.6K engagements
"Im referring to public stocks. He does sometimes pay up when he can control the cash flow but even with full acquisitions there have been lots of smaller deals done at 10-15x or less. I estimate the most recent deal he did (buying the chemical business from OXY) is well under 10x normalized earnings https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022716400377159826 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022716400377159826"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:55Z 48.8K followers, [----] engagements
"3 main reasons: Writing has always been an important part of my investment process its fun to write and its fun to get paid for it. Its really that simple. Writing is necessary and will always be part of what I do. Substack isnt necessary but its a lot of fun. Probably wont be forever but I enjoy it for now"
X Link 2026-02-15T20:13Z 48.8K followers, [---] engagements
"Costco is up 3x in the last [--] years but who would have thought that BJ's Wholesale would be the better performing warehouse club store (up 4.5x over that period) $COST $BJ"
X Link 2025-03-14T16:16Z 48.5K followers, 87K engagements
"$SRBK is also a bank that increased the pace of buybacks in April (bought 188k shares through 5/12) normally a rarity when markets are volatile. SRBK has bought about 8% of the shares since announcing the buyback in September. Also like FCNCA insiders have been buying. $FCNCA has been ramping up their buyback. They've repurchased 9% of the shares in the last year. 10-q just came out and they bought another 126k shares in April (about 1% of SO); nice to see since banks often almost always pull back on buybacks whenever there is volatility. $FCNCA has been ramping up their buyback. They've"
X Link 2025-05-16T15:09Z 48.4K followers, 22.1K engagements
"I may have called it an evolution but its really not. Its simply based on where value opportunities are. [--] years ago compounders were largely cheap; now they are largely expensive. One day theyll be cheap again. For now best value is elsewhere. I think this game requires flexibility: fish where the fish are as Charlie once said @BillBrewsterTBB @JohnHuber72 I like hearing from John since hes had kind of a reverse Buffett evolution. Really appreciate the different viewpoint and the differentiation between a great business and a great stock. @BillBrewsterTBB @JohnHuber72 I like hearing from"
X Link 2025-05-24T23:27Z 48.7K followers, 88.9K engagements
"New post with some more comments on portfolio strategy current opportunities and the importance of being flexible I may have called it an evolution but its really not. Its simply based on where value opportunities are. [--] years ago compounders were largely cheap; now they are largely expensive. One day theyll be cheap again. For now best value is elsewhere. I think this game requires I may have called it an evolution but its really not. Its simply based on where value opportunities are. [--] years ago compounders were largely cheap; now they are largely expensive. One day theyll be cheap again."
X Link 2025-06-04T13:55Z 48.6K followers, 33.6K engagements
"Another example of how bargains often hide in plain sight even among the largest stocks in the market (i.e. even large caps can get mispriced). $JPM is knocking on the door of a 3x in [--] years:"
X Link 2025-07-02T22:16Z 48.6K followers, 43.9K engagements
"This is a remarkable outcome. I think it has more to do with capital allocation and starting valuations. I felt like ABNB had a better model because it didnt need Google to acquire customers but BKNG runs its business with more efficiency far less stock based comp and has used its FCF to buy back shares. ABNBs buyback doesnt create nearly as much value because so much of it is soaked up by the SBC. That portion of their buyback is essentially a cash compensation expense Manager mode (blue) vs Founder mode (pink). $ABNB $BKNG https://t.co/oYeMGzzVnI Manager mode (blue) vs Founder mode (pink)."
X Link 2025-09-15T13:43Z 48.7K followers, 73.9K engagements
"Big tech capex exploding Oracle needs to invest billions Open AI will need to raise billions to fulfill that contract and others chip makers raising huge sums countless others will be entering the competition; the next 5-10 years will be a great case study on capital cycle theory (from Apollo's Daily Spark email)"
X Link 2025-09-18T15:11Z 48.7K followers, 80K engagements
"Cisco Nortel Lucent and numerous others all did this in the 1990's. Some of it was vendor financing: Lucent was owed over $6b at the end which used to be a lot of moneyπ; Some was equity: Cisco did over [--] acquisitions and equity deals. All to secure more sales volume. Buying revenue typically did not lead to good long term outcomes (to say the least). NVDA is far better than the web [---] infrastructure players so perhaps better outcomes will follow as well but the size and the structure of this deal (along with Oracle's RPO announcement) do remind me of things we saw in past bubbles. History"
X Link 2025-09-24T03:20Z 48.7K followers, 75.2K engagements
"For some more context the US currently uses about [----] TWh of power annually. So this [----] TWh demand estimate means future global datacenter power would be akin to 40% of the entire US electricity usage. This is why my two favorite AI stocks are $NRP and $BSM π However Im also not sure we can take current datacenter demand and extrapolate out to [----]. We need more electricity: AI data centers are set to consume [----] terawatt-hours of power demand by [----] equal to 4.4% of global electricity. In other words power demand from AI data centers is set to QUADRUPLE over the next [--] years. If"
X Link 2025-10-04T17:55Z 48.7K followers, 54K engagements
"The amount of capital needed to produce each dollar of incremental sales. A decade ago these [--] companies needed just $0.36 to produce an incremental dollar of sales growth. Today that same dollar of sales requires $1.71 (and that dollar of sales growth is far less impactful today vs a decade ago in % terms)"
X Link 2025-10-10T20:59Z 48.7K followers, 68.3K engagements
"Interesting that FCNCA tangible book value per share has grown from about $200 to $1600 over the past decade (23% CAGR) and the stock trades at book value implying little premium for the mgmt quality capital allocation decisions the deposit franchise a rebound in SVB fee income etc. I think big deals are likely behind them for a while but Fifth Third and Comerica are merging (regionals can still expand) and there will be a downturn again when FCNCA has always played offense. I estimate they're buying the BMO branches for around 1x the NII they'll be able to collect from those deposits and"
X Link 2025-10-19T18:24Z 48.4K followers, 23.2K engagements
"I wrote some thoughts on two different types of bank investments asset sensitivity and FCNCA's valuation (link in bio)"
X Link 2025-10-28T15:35Z 48.4K followers, 16.2K engagements
"Cowboys continue to disappoint but at least Jerry has Comstock. Lots of interesting well developments happening in the western Haynesville $CRK $BSM https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-ai-power-needs-left-a-jerry-jones-backed-texas-gas-giant-sitting-on-the-holy-grail-of-supply-100101645.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-ai-power-needs-left-a-jerry-jones-backed-texas-gas-giant-sitting-on-the-holy-grail-of-supply-100101645.html"
X Link 2025-11-07T19:08Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Despite the narratives California is allowing for increased oil production. $CRC is wasting no time in submitting applications for new wells in California (some have already been approved). A new law (SB 237) took effect 1/1/26 and allows for up to [----] new well permits annually (up from virtually zero in recent years) https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011451844216684693 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011451844216684693"
X Link 2026-01-14T14:54Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@leevalueroach There is no real informational advantage in large caps but that doesnt mean large caps cant get very mispriced. JPM is up 3x in [--] years. Sometimes the edge is just being willing to look out a few years when everyone else is unwilling to look past a few quarters"
X Link 2026-01-18T20:21Z 48.4K followers, 14.4K engagements
"Yeah I think of these as intermediate term investments. Sometimes durable mature big caps get thrown out due to either company specific issues or short term macro fears. AAPL in [----] ORLY [----] META [----] NFLX [----] and GOOG 2025; also XOM VLO GE MMM and JPM were multibaggers over the past 3-5 years). I missed most of these but the good news is the market seems to offer a few of these each year. UNH might possibly be an example of this currently. Your point on options is interesting because many of these stocks are high quality lower beta and thus have cheap options."
X Link 2026-01-18T20:52Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Smithfield's is taking one of the best long-term small cap compounders off the market. [--] years ago Nathan's Famous was a $3 stock. Since then they've paid $41 in total dividends and the stock now is valued at $102. @natstewart5 and I were recently talking about the power of owning royalties which is that they can grow without capital which allows owners the rare opportunity to extract cash from a business while also benefiting from growth. This have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too business model is sometimes under-appreciated $NATH https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013976405978063151"
X Link 2026-01-21T14:06Z 48.4K followers, 37.6K engagements
"Adobe might be just fine but Im old enough to remember when people said that iPhone and Macs were fun for consumers but the enterprise world was locked into BlackBerry. Similar story with Google apps (docs sheets etc) vs Excel Sometimes the consumer tools move upmarket $ADBE competition myth debunked in just a few sentences Its a professionals business generating most its revenues from enterprises This is a FACT https://t.co/53vq3BtN4l $ADBE competition myth debunked in just a few sentences Its a professionals business generating most its revenues from enterprises This is a FACT"
X Link 2026-01-21T18:27Z 48.4K followers, 24.9K engagements
"I remember you writing about it many years ago. You had this one figured out. One reason I like recurring revenue businesses with no debt because there is a built in call option: swapping debt for equity. The ability to take on debt to buy out owners is a nice arrow in the quiver when the stock is cheap. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014184218813685790 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2014184218813685790"
X Link 2026-01-22T03:51Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"FCNCA took a big bite of its shares over the past [--] months:"
X Link 2026-01-23T14:02Z 48.4K followers, 16.4K engagements
"Peter Lynch had a chapter in his second book on them but the best thing to do to learn is to study a recent conversion. I'd recommend picking one that converted sometime in the last few years and read the prospectus. BVFL had a second step conversion in May [----]. The prospectus has excellent detail on how the conversion works how the funding works etc"
X Link 2026-01-24T19:00Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"One of the greatest track records of all time. And he did it his own way: diversified cheap hated stocks hundreds of investments over the years a repeatable process numbers based didnt focus on moats per se didnt need catalysts bought cheap stocks and waited. Understood the basic concept that the market is short term focused and if you had patience you had a big edge. My main takeaway from Schloss isnt his strategy per se though I like it. But it is that he did things his own way with an independent mind. Didnt worry about what his friends or his clients thought about his stocks. He was close"
X Link 2026-01-26T16:06Z 48.4K followers, 49.6K engagements
"Some simple math on productivity gains. I think it's commonly assumed that a 10% increase in productivity is easy to achieve with AI and for some companies it might be but unlikely for the overall market. Non-tech S&P operating margins are around 9% and the median margin for all public US companies (including tech) in the US is under 10% but let's assume 10% op margins: This is $100 and $10 of profits or $90 of costs or $1.11 of output per dollar of input costs. A 10% increase in productivity takes this business to $1.22 output per $1 input: either sales go to $110 with the same $90 of costs"
X Link 2026-01-26T17:00Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"When I see this picture I see an illustrated explanation for why a commodity priced at say $110 with a cash production cost of $30 is not a long-term sustainable circumstance. Lots of people with lots of money are interested in that $80 gap and despite supply fundamentals which do seem compelling this excess profit doesn't last forever $SLV I've been attending the VRIC (Vancouver Resource Investment Conference) for nearly [--] years. Mostly to take the temperature of the metals and mining industry for my investments in the sector/industry. It's a great show and the investor turnouts have"
X Link 2026-01-26T17:53Z 48.4K followers, 30.6K engagements
"Yes its really impressive and I think demand for Claude code and others will keep growing fast. I bucket this in the wholesale demand category which is of course real demand but my question is about how it gets monetized. My thinking is these productivity gains will accrue to customers. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016136719548969085 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2016136719548969085"
X Link 2026-01-27T13:10Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"New post with some thoughts on AI productivity shortages and gluts:"
X Link 2026-01-27T15:34Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@greg_ip @jturek18 To me its an Occams Razor. Momentum begets momentum. Speculation. All kinds of fundamental reasons get attributed to try and explain it and some of that might have gotten things going like kindling but none of those reasons seem to justify the magnitude of the move"
X Link 2026-01-27T18:59Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"WSJ article highlights the major push toward production increases with gold and silver where they are currently: https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/gold-prices-mining-south-africa-2226154cmod=Searchresults&pos=1&page=1 https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/gold-prices-mining-south-africa-2226154cmod=Searchresults&pos=1&page=1"
X Link 2026-01-27T22:03Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"People try to rationally explain a price movement (and there are some fundamental reasons) but Occam's razor is helpful here: simplest explanation is usually correct one. price going up makes more people want to buy. I think that's responsible for a big chunk of this move"
X Link 2026-01-30T03:43Z 48.4K followers, 16.2K engagements
"Interesting how much greater the net flows into silver ETFs vs gold this month considering the assets in gold ETF's are roughly [--] times the amount in silver $SLV $GLD People try to rationally explain a price movement (and there are some fundamental reasons) but Occam's razor is helpful here: simplest explanation is usually correct one. price going up makes more people want to buy. I think that's responsible for a big chunk of this move https://t.co/GmKQCiupuz People try to rationally explain a price movement (and there are some fundamental reasons) but Occam's razor is helpful here: simplest"
X Link 2026-01-30T03:54Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@JasonLiebel @treiner5 Yep it usually is one of the largest expenses these companies have. Not including it is akin to not counting the labor expense at Chipotle or Starbucks"
X Link 2026-01-30T20:53Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@AgAuUOil @Ole_S_Hansen Youre correct. It was panic selling and forced liquidations. And gold isnt much different same moves as silver just less extreme. I would not call either safe havens at current prices that are 3-4x production costs"
X Link 2026-01-31T05:52Z 48.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@lhamtil That year when the Giants went to the World Series I remember there was a stretch in that postseason where if they actually pitched to him and he didnt hit a home run it was almost surprising"
X Link 2026-02-01T19:42Z 48.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@CapitalObserver Same with Amazon which is already negative ttm (counting the 20b SBC as an expense)"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:06Z 48.5K followers, [----] engagements
"I think so. A slowdown in capex will likely be the result of the realization that the returns on all that spending was lower than hoped. I don't think that will be viewed favorably but could be a buying opportunity. A recent past example was Amazon realizing they had excess retail warehouse space in [----] and slowing spending. The excess capacity was viewed as bad news but it sowed the seeds of a recovery in retail margins and free cash flow later https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019226391342915673 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2019226391342915673"
X Link 2026-02-05T01:47Z 48.4K followers, [---] engagements
"They'll have around $100m in cash left after debt paydown at year end so they'll have one or two more diet seasons quite a big ask $WTW"
X Link 2015-08-06T14:52Z 48.5K followers, [--] engagements
"Back in June I did a presentation on Tencent for @manualofideas. Here are my slides on $TCEHY: http://basehitinvesting.com/one-of-the-worlds-widest-moats/ http://basehitinvesting.com/one-of-the-worlds-widest-moats/"
X Link 2017-08-16T14:29Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements
"One of the best interviews with Munger that Ive seen in a while. Really interesting to hear his perspective from his early days in business and his experiences running his partnership. https://youtu.be/S9HgIGzOENA https://youtu.be/S9HgIGzOENA"
X Link 2017-12-22T17:03Z 48.6K followers, [---] engagements
"I just reread these posts that I wrote [--] years ago and I glanced at my old watchlist. The stocks that looked like really cheap statistical bargains had mediocre returns and the compounders that looked expensive were actually bargains. The ROIC really is key over time. High ROIC always wins in the end given a long enough time horizon πΈ The importance of ROIC a couple of splendid articles va @JohnHuber72 - Part 1: https://t.co/DcWULoO3kk - Part 2: https://t.co/OwYR0lZe8H #ValueInvesting #ROIC https://t.co/WpgVXSPu1R High ROIC always wins in the end given a long enough time horizon πΈ The"
X Link 2018-08-23T14:44Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Facebook is a lightning rod right now and the negative sentiment is extreme but I think the stock is really undervalued. I wrote a note to my investors this week with some thoughts: $FB http://sabercapitalmgt.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Facebook-is-Undervalued-2018-11-30.pdf http://sabercapitalmgt.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Facebook-is-Undervalued-2018-11-30.pdf"
X Link 2018-12-05T16:43Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Hes called Canadas Warren Buffett. His investment approach seems more focused on stitching together businesses when he could buy them on the cheap: I didnt know what goodwill was for a long time. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-12-21/-canada-s-warren-buffett-jim-pattison-drives-own-pickup-truck https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-12-21/-canada-s-warren-buffett-jim-pattison-drives-own-pickup-truck"
X Link 2018-12-23T02:14Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"S&P is now down 20%. Who knows what the economy (or the market) does next year but if you view stocks as businesses this is one of those times that comes along once in a while where its great to be buying. Lots of value out there. Fun times at the office now. Merry Christmas"
X Link 2018-12-24T18:47Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Wells Fargo got Fed approval to buy back $23.1 billion over the coming [--] months which is 11% of its shares at current price. Including the 4.3% dividend it's a 15% total "yield" at the current price. All of the big four banks have double digit total yields: $WFC $BAC $C $JPM"
X Link 2019-07-01T19:51Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"One of Buffett's most underrated skills is independent thought. He follows his common sense principles but avoids the dogma that often plagues many investors. Great businesses make best investments but he bought oil futures silver & bet on interest rates when odds made sense"
X Link 2019-07-18T13:40Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Much emphasis goes into finding hidden bargains when some of the best bargains in some of the best companies are hiding in plain sight. Liquidity does not mean efficiently priced & fair values don't move by 50% (or $300 billion) in a few months. Large caps can get very mispriced"
X Link 2019-10-11T18:12Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"This is such great advice from Munger when it comes to portfolio management. Everyone's trying to be smarter search deeper and solve the most complex problems which makes those areas very competitive places to play. Just avoiding difficult things is so simple but not easy"
X Link 2019-12-18T17:05Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"New Post: Warren Buffett [----] Email Exchange on Microsoft Saber Capital Management $MSFT $FB $GOOG http://sabercapitalmgt.com/warren-buffett-1997-email-exchange-on-microsoft/ http://sabercapitalmgt.com/warren-buffett-1997-email-exchange-on-microsoft/"
X Link 2019-12-19T12:24Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"On investment ideas the only thing that matters is the quality of the idea not the novelty. In many areas of life there is a direct link between originality and quality but in investing the two have a random relationship"
X Link 2020-02-19T15:03Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"I'm not sure it was Warren or Todd/Ted who sold DAL/LUV but I do think one of the most underrated qualities of WEB's investment prowess is his ability to change is mind when he realizes the situation has changed"
X Link 2020-04-04T02:35Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"In the Panic of [----] our economy plunged. Steel output -60% iron -55% imports -26% unemployment soared doors closed rent wasn't paid. Economic output cratered for [--] months. GDP down 10% in [----] but had quarters down 25%. Yet stocks rose 44% in [----]. https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1882797.pdf https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1882797.pdf"
X Link 2020-05-09T14:59Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"It's a great point; counterintuitive in a way but true. ROIC's are surprisingly persistent. Good businesses tend to keep being good. FT piece mentioned Nick Sleep's COST & AMZN buys in [----]. As a smart investor told me; keeping it is more impressive than the original purchase Let your winners run cc Claude Shannon https://t.co/j1BV5PHA1x Let your winners run cc Claude Shannon https://t.co/j1BV5PHA1x"
X Link 2020-08-14T19:55Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"A lot of air time being given to Berkshire's investment in $GOLD but it's less than 0.2% of BRK's equity capital; worth about $0.23 per B share. AAPL is worth $47 per B share. A 1% daily change in AAPL's stock price is worth more than double the entire $GOLD investment"
X Link 2020-08-15T19:42Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"23 years ago today Jeff Raikes wrote an email to Warren Buffett with a succinct pitch on why MSFT would create so much value. The best businesses earn high high returns on the capital that someone else invested. I wrote a post on this idea last year: http://sabercapitalmgt.com/warren-buffett-1997-email-exchange-on-microsoft/ http://sabercapitalmgt.com/warren-buffett-1997-email-exchange-on-microsoft/"
X Link 2020-08-17T19:54Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Probably the coolest chart I've seen in [----]. This is why Buffett says betting against America is a sucker's bet. So many hardships but also so much resourcefulness and resilience in the past [--] months. This is the most bullish chart in the world. New business formations https://t.co/oZaIC92uk8 This is the most bullish chart in the world. New business formations https://t.co/oZaIC92uk8"
X Link 2020-10-18T01:35Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"$FB keeps building their moat. The quality of the human capital at that company is remarkable and management continues to impress despite the constant burden of being scapegoated by both sides of the political arena. Zuckerberg really is one of the great CEOs Starting today people across India will be able to send money through WhatsApp πΈ This secure payments experience makes transferring money just as easy as sending a message. https://t.co/bM1hMEB7sb Starting today people across India will be able to send money through WhatsApp πΈ This secure payments experience makes transferring money"
X Link 2020-11-06T02:16Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"1/ Best thing I've read this week: Post by @packyM on how "API companies" are building out moats by providing critical functions that their customers can't (nor want to) replicate at the same level of cost or quality h/t @thesovagroup https://notboring.substack.com/p/apis-all-the-way-down-audio https://notboring.substack.com/p/apis-all-the-way-down-audio"
X Link 2020-12-09T18:08Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Some thoughts on mean reversion and the Power Law; Four reasons why certain companies' size and profitability seem to defy capitalism's law of gravity: https://sabercapitalmgt.com/end-of-mean-reversion/ https://sabercapitalmgt.com/end-of-mean-reversion/"
X Link 2021-01-04T19:09Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"I actually think the boom in SPACs is going to be a great thing for public market investors. All this new supply of stock will be a problem in the next downturn but then there will be opportunities to invest in a variety of quality companies that wouldnt otherwise be public yet"
X Link 2021-02-12T13:54Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"I talked with the Columbia Business School students for the latest edition of Graham and Doddsville Newsletter. We discussed Saber's investment approach as well as our investment in $ETSY. Thanks to CBS for having me Enjoyed the conversation. https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/valueinvesting/sites/valueinvesting/files/Graham%20%26%20Doddsville_Issue%2041_v15.pdf https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/valueinvesting/sites/valueinvesting/files/Graham%20%26%20Doddsville_Issue%2041_v15.pdf"
X Link 2021-02-18T14:42Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"This is a great point. I created a faux Shopify business last year just to get to know their products better and the first thing they emailed me was a mini-course on how to advertise on Facebook and Instagram. SHOP is an incredible business but it's also a farm team for FB"
X Link 2021-02-27T04:09Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"A great description of how big the opportunity cost of time is; and how important it is to avoid distractions and get in that extra hour of deep work day after day. Doesn't seem too important on any given day but it compounds. via @andy_matuschak https://notes.andymatuschak.org/z4SDCZQeRo4xFEQ8H4qrSqd68ucpgE6LU155CstackedNotes=z6bci25mVUBNFdVWSrQNKr6u7AZ1jFzfTVbMF&stackedNotes=z6UDDkom8Aifg6mLdjT1sPtbMBweCmpyTwmJT https://notes.andymatuschak.org/z4SDCZQeRo4xFEQ8H4qrSqd68ucpgE6LU155CstackedNotes=z6bci25mVUBNFdVWSrQNKr6u7AZ1jFzfTVbMF&stackedNotes=z6UDDkom8Aifg6mLdjT1sPtbMBweCmpyTwmJT"
X Link 2021-03-14T12:36Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"One of the coolest pictures of all time: Everyone in the world except Michael Collins. Shows Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin descending in the Lunar Module with every other human (past and present) somewhere inside the frame of the photo. What a moment. h/t @LibertyRPF"
X Link 2021-05-15T03:21Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"$PINS Head of Engineering explaining why it's so hard to consider leaving off the cloud even when they're sending $300 million/yr to AWS (paywall) https://www.theinformation.com/articles/how-pinterest-learned-to-control-cloud-costs https://www.theinformation.com/articles/how-pinterest-learned-to-control-cloud-costs"
X Link 2021-08-24T12:34Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"$FB's EV to gross profits is 9x. Hard pressed to find a business with 80% gross margins that continues to grow at double digit rates that is cheaper (I like how @theTIKR added EV/GP to their historical charts; a metric I like to track across Saber's watchlist)"
X Link 2021-12-07T15:55Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Terry Smith's letter is one of my favorites. Simple common sense way of allocating capital. If you're a long term investor it's important to keep in mind that as long as you follow his rule #2 (Don't overpay) the portfolio will return what the businesses return over time"
X Link 2022-01-14T13:14Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Jamie Dimon is really on his A-game for this morning's $JPM call. "I wish I could take this company private and just own the whole thing" π One of the few earnings calls I'd rather listen to than read"
X Link 2022-01-14T14:58Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"If you have a business that doesnt take any capital Buffett describes why capex light businesses are naturally hedged against inflation. I think this is partly why he was buying a basket of ad agency stocks in the 1970s. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/04/30/inflation-swindles-almost-everybody-says-warren-buffett.html https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/04/30/inflation-swindles-almost-everybody-says-warren-buffett.html"
X Link 2022-05-14T10:31Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"A concept that Buffett beautifully articulates is if you are a net buyer of stocks you should want them to fall not rise. I love the simplicity but also the dissonance here because individual investors who earn more than they spend and internalize this mindset gain a huge edge"
X Link 2022-05-24T21:30Z 48.7K followers, [----] engagements
"Impressive: Dimon has never sold a share of $JPM"
X Link 2022-08-15T01:45Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Higher margins aren't ideal if a higher ROIC could be achieved with lower margin. What matters is return on incremental capital. Gross margin isn't most important; it's gross profit dollars earned on each dollar invested. I like this thinking and the example from $HD"
X Link 2022-08-20T02:37Z 48.7K followers, [----] engagements
"The filter Combs described he & Buffett using is is one of the most elegant "screeners" I've seen. Really gets you thinking about durability. Can't replicate confidence interval but I attempted it using @theTIKR: 5%/yr growth 2005-2019 & [--] P/E. Very few make that cut This is one of the best "screens" I have seen for Buffett-type stock ideas What stocks (if any) are going to be: 15x EPS next year 90% sure to have higher EPS in [--] years 50/50 chance of compounding at 7% a year Name some stocks that fit this screen https://t.co/hZkqkWdX6X This is one of the best "screens" I have seen for"
X Link 2023-01-05T23:30Z 48.7K followers, 149.8K engagements
"I remember when Buffett described big tech companies as great because they needed no capital to grow. This was true for a while but it would be interesting to get his updated views as BRK (and others usually thought of as capex heavy) are now capital lighter by comparison"
X Link 2023-02-15T17:31Z 48.7K followers, 103.8K engagements
"@HML_Compounder @KYRRadio Its adding an extra payment each year. Bi-weekly would be [--] half payments a year or [--] full mortgage payments instead of [--]. You could also accomplish a similar outcome by just adding 1/12th principal to every payment each month"
X Link 2023-03-26T20:29Z 48.7K followers, 189.8K engagements
"A common theme of Buffetts investments (esp recently) is high FCF yields accompanied by buybacks and dividends. Seems to prefer buybacks/divs vs reinvestment cos; I wonder if it is b/c he likes certainty. He knows hes going to get the 14% FCF yield here https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/warren-buffett-why-he-bought-5-japanese-trading-houses.html__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/warren-buffett-why-he-bought-5-japanese-trading-houses.html__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter"
X Link 2023-04-12T13:27Z 48.7K followers, 110.9K engagements
"One of my favorite parts of BRK meeting is the Buffett & Munger side references to little investments they made decades ago (Belridge Oil Duck Club etc) Latest: Munger reveals he gets $70000/yr oil royalties from a [----] investment WB: What did you pay for that CM: $1000 π"
X Link 2023-05-10T17:18Z 48.7K followers, 90.7K engagements
"Each quarter JPM earns terrific ROE and NII growth and every quarter they come up with a litany of reasons why they wont earn those returns going forward. Somewhat reminds me of Thiels classic Monopolies are always telling you why they arent monopolies"
X Link 2023-07-14T13:02Z 48.8K followers, 34.7K engagements
"Buffett invested in [--] Japanese stocks in [----]. That initial basket investment is up over 3x in [--] years a 44% CAGR on that initial purchase. Some thoughts from my @JournalyticApp entry today Might publish these later:"
X Link 2023-07-25T15:34Z 48.7K followers, 143.9K engagements
"@TrungTPhan He used the phrase Bayesian priors twice for good measure just to leave no doubt in peoples mind that hes smart π"
X Link 2023-10-06T20:43Z 48.7K followers, 30.5K engagements
"$MUSA is a 10-bagger in [--] yrs (26% CAGR). Great example of "boring" stock in low growth industry (gas stations) that created huge value (like NVR AZO ORLY). [--] key ingredients: consistent buybacks + persistently below avg valuation. The boring part helps sustain the latter"
X Link 2024-03-19T02:36Z 48.7K followers, 52.2K engagements
"0 to 500m in his personal account π (his salary was $100k with no options). Theres a quote in Lowensteins book where someone in the 70s said something like: he made so much money so fast in his PA it was unbelievable. Special situations extreme mispriced even commodities Warren Buffett went from $0 to $500MM in [--] years. This is excluding Berkshire. He did it with basically zero contributions. It was stuff like: Delta Duck Club Bayuk Cigars (@turtlebay_io had a great piece on this) Mid-Continent Tab Card Korean stocks Wish I knew them all. Warren Buffett went from $0 to $500MM in [--] years."
X Link 2024-06-12T20:43Z 48.7K followers, 52.8K engagements
"Wrote some thoughts on the general market conditions and the types of opportunities it might be creating over the next decade"
X Link 2024-07-12T12:19Z 48.7K followers, 53.7K engagements
"Buffett has a do as I say not as I do approach to leverage. His advice to avoid leverage is genuine because he knows it will cause more harm than good for most but he and Munger both used it regularly in their portfolios in the 60s and 70s Also Buffett: 20x levering his sister's $BRK position so she can buy as much of it as possible [----] https://t.co/0oC4JY02ko Also Buffett: 20x levering his sister's $BRK position so she can buy as much of it as possible [----] https://t.co/0oC4JY02ko"
X Link 2024-10-18T01:34Z 48.7K followers, 37.1K engagements
"Dirt is one of the best investors I know. Buffett once said he could do 50% per year today if he was managing $1m or so; Dirt is an example of a guy doing it in a way that Buffett once did (and investing the way Buffett probably would be today) [----] Performance: +42.4% CAGR Since Inception (July 2019): +53.5% This will be my last post discussing returns. [----] Performance: +42.4% CAGR Since Inception (July 2019): +53.5% This will be my last post discussing returns"
X Link 2025-01-03T01:51Z 48.7K followers, 79.1K engagements
"Very interesting to reread this Buffett piece from [--] decades ago. Actually wild Buffett wrote this. https://t.co/mTBDaCRTK3 https://t.co/GH5WdhfFO1 Actually wild Buffett wrote this. https://t.co/mTBDaCRTK3 https://t.co/GH5WdhfFO1"
X Link 2025-04-04T17:13Z 48.7K followers, 47.5K engagements
"Found this surprising when I saw it: $AMZN has underperformed the S&P YTD [--] yr [--] yr and [--] yr periods. Says nothing about what future performance will be but still surprising given the reputation as one of the Mag 7's. Also [--] yrs ago in April [----] it would have been hard to imagine a better positioned company than Amazon to handle the onslaught of demand and the shift in retail to ecommerce during Covid. This is also an interesting case study regarding capital cycle theory. Amazon (by its own account) overestimated demand and after a whopping $300 billion of capex over the last [--] years it was"
X Link 2025-04-22T01:53Z 48.7K followers, 42.8K engagements
"It's amazing how fast sentiment changes in the stock market. Liberation Day and all the fear surrounding it seems like a distant memory. It's so interesting to observe how the market just moves from one theme to another; tariffs are still an issue but it's not the lead story that people want to discuss. Reality wasn't as bad then as economic experts made it seem. On flip side I think the predictions around AI productivity are likely too optimistic now (I heard a well known tech titan suggest that a 10% productivity bump in the $70 trillion service economy is possible. sounds reasonable at"
X Link 2025-08-22T16:39Z 48.7K followers, 24.5K engagements
"In [----] @JoshTarasoff did this AMZN presentation. It's the best writeup I've seen on AMZN. At the end he says he thinks AMZN can do 30% CAGR for next [--] yrs. [--] yrs in AMZN has compounded at 38%. But regardless of result it's great thinking: http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/amzn-valuexvail-2012-josh-tarasoff1.pdf http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/amzn-valuexvail-2012-josh-tarasoff1.pdf"
X Link 2017-11-07T19:14Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"This website is really a goldmine. Transcripts of BRK meetings going back to [----] interview archives clips and other Buffett information. Great work by CNBC. https://buffett.cnbc.com/annual-meetings/ https://buffett.cnbc.com/annual-meetings/"
X Link 2018-05-07T20:35Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Another great compilation. Munger in [---] pages. I'll treat this as sort of a warmup for the full workout: the [----] page Buffett compilation. [--] pages a day gets you through both in [--] months. https://x.com/AustinValue/status/998667676569473026 Compilation of everything Munger: https://t.co/WZ8mHWAuep https://x.com/AustinValue/status/998667676569473026 Compilation of everything Munger: https://t.co/WZ8mHWAuep"
X Link 2018-05-22T16:16Z 48.7K followers, [---] engagements
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