# ![@JeffBaird66 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1586183274228961280.png) @JeffBaird66 Jeff Baird

Jeff Baird posts on X about japan, fed, yield curve, gavinnewsom the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1586183274228961280/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1586183274228961280/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [---] -52%
- [--] Month [-----] +1,060%
- [--] Months [------] +449%
- [--] Year [------] +184%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1586183274228961280/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1586183274228961280/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)


### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1586183274228961280/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1586183274228961280/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +0.30%
- [--] Month [---] -2%
- [--] Months [---] +18%
- [--] Year [---] +53%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1586183274228961280/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1586183274228961280/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  47% [countries](/list/countries)  15% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  4% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  2% [stocks](/list/stocks)  1%

**Social topic influence**
[japan](/topic/japan) 9%, [fed](/topic/fed) 9%, [yield curve](/topic/yield-curve) #25, [gavinnewsom](/topic/gavinnewsom) 6%, [stocks](/topic/stocks) 5%, [debt](/topic/debt) 5%, [in the](/topic/in-the) 4%, [gdp](/topic/gdp) 4%, [balance sheet](/topic/balance-sheet) 4%, [the most](/topic/the-most) 3%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@leadlagreport](/creator/undefined) [@onechancefreedm](/creator/undefined) [@elexmichaelson](/creator/undefined) [@gavinnewsom](/creator/undefined) [@ladwp](/creator/undefined) [@zerohedge](/creator/undefined) [@allthingsf74065](/creator/undefined) [@sansa314159](/creator/undefined) [@marionawfal](/creator/undefined) [@nicksortor](/creator/undefined) [@texangmommy](/creator/undefined) [@elonmusk](/creator/undefined) [@m3melody](/creator/undefined) [@drgingerballs](/creator/undefined) [@itmtrading](/creator/undefined) [@dimartinobooth](/creator/undefined) [@clewandowski](/creator/undefined) [@realdonaldtrump](/creator/undefined) [@doge](/creator/undefined) [@spacex](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Dogecoin (DOGE)](/topic/doge)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"Michael does an amazing job explaining a very complex set of conditions in a clear comprehensive manner Excellent video You should watch this. They will fucking crash everything to save bonds. https://t.co/CUHPxc4QS0 You should watch this. They will fucking crash everything to save bonds. https://t.co/CUHPxc4QS0"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2019789251223880038)  2026-02-06T15:04Z [---] followers, 14.7K engagements


"Here we go https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-must-professional-approach-tapping-133247950.html https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-must-professional-approach-tapping-133247950.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2020570972932489597)  2026-02-08T18:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"So for a couple of decades the consolidated GOJ has been borrowing more than it needed to run Japans government at basically 0% interest and investing the surplus overseas. They probably have about $5T-$10T saved up. And you think theyre fucked Apologies but me thinks not https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022769238117896467 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022769238117896467"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2022769238117896467)  2026-02-14T20:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@m3_melody But for some reason DRV cant seem to get any traction. Why is that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2022772658446778516)  2026-02-14T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@leadlagreport "We would need to look at markets and decide what the most effective asset management is for Japan so that we are taking a professional approach that does not cause any problems" Katayama-san says"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2020572478838616102)  2026-02-08T18:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@onechancefreedm "We would need to look at markets and decide what the most effective asset management is for Japan so that we are taking a professional approach that does not cause any problems" Katayama-san says"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2020620210261414015)  2026-02-08T22:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@leadlagreport Theres WAY more to the story The Fed - Measuring Cross-Border Securities Positions: Explaining Asymmetries between U.S. Treasury TIC and IMF PIP (formerly CPIS) Data https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/measuring-cross-border-securities-positions-explaining-asymmetries-20260213.html#::text=This%20feature%20of%20TIC%20dataLuxembourg%2C%20and%20the%20United%20Kingdom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2022739714139365874)  2026-02-14T18:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Regardless of what they say is causing it the bottom line is that the powers that be want rates back in the double digits. Theyre tired of having to put their capital at risk to earn returns. Theyre tired just wanna park their billions in safe deposit accounts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2013619651524383120)  2026-01-20T14:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


""We would need to look at markets and decide what the most effective asset management is for Japan so that we are taking a professional approach that does not cause any problems" Katayama-san says"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2020571830961238399)  2026-02-08T18:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Translation: "We're gonna start selling shit and bringing it home. Also while there's nothing anyone can fucking do about it we'll be very polite while we pop their insanely inflated asset bubbles.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2020574864508362978)  2026-02-08T19:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Please take everything you read about foreign holdings of U.S. treasuries w/ a grain of salt https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/measuring-cross-border-securities-positions-explaining-asymmetries-20260213.html#::text=This%20feature%20of%20TIC%20dataLuxembourg%2C%20and%20the%20United%20Kingdom https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/measuring-cross-border-securities-positions-explaining-asymmetries-20260213.html#::text=This%20feature%20of%20TIC%20dataLuxembourg%2C%20and%20the%20United%20Kingdom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2022742843417362835)  2026-02-14T18:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Neither Canadian nor Chinese reporting in PIP would capture the Canadian and Chinese holdings of U.S. securities located in a Belgian depository"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2022743920220991994)  2026-02-14T18:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@leadlagreport Unpopularer opinion: they will rotate from stocks to treasuries to precious metals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2022747255732867456)  2026-02-14T18:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"To be clear: What they want is for their enormous hoards of capital assets (including precious metals) to be worth as much as humanly possible and for their mountains of liquid assets (including treasuries) to pay as much as humanly possible Hence gold & interest rates UP @leadlagreport Unpopularer opinion: they will rotate from stocks to treasuries to precious metals @leadlagreport Unpopularer opinion: they will rotate from stocks to treasuries to precious metals"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2022749161612022184)  2026-02-14T19:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"So quick question for all you fixed income experts out there: Is investing in the TSP Government Securities Investment (G) Fund the same as investing in US Treasuries https://www.tsp.gov/funds-individual/g-fund/ https://www.tsp.gov/funds-individual/g-fund/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2022752380065030151)  2026-02-14T19:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"For example if you invest $100k in the G fund and Treasury rates go up across the entire yield curve what would happen to your G Fund balance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2022753648430960931)  2026-02-14T19:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Alternatively if you invest $100k in the Treasuries (of any mix of maturities) and Treasury rates go up across the entire yield curve what would happen to your Treasury investment balance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2022754042959552782)  2026-02-14T19:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Lookn forward to seeing who did what with treasuries in [----] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0365#::text=WASHINGTON%20%E2%80%93%20The%20U.S.%20Department%20ofscheduled%20for%20February%2018%2C%202026 https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0365#::text=WASHINGTON%20%E2%80%93%20The%20U.S.%20Department%20ofscheduled%20for%20February%2018%2C%202026"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2022788576761778363)  2026-02-14T21:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Did you know the U.S. Treasury Department uses a "transactor basis" for its monthly reports This means they track where the purchase order originated or where the bonds are stored rather than the ultimate legal owner"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2022790973441323070)  2026-02-14T21:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"If the Saudi Arabian central bank buys $10 billion in Treasuries but stores them in an account at Euroclear in Brussels the U.S. data records that as a $10 billion increase in Belgian holdings"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2022791457367851284)  2026-02-14T21:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"This makes countries like Belgium Luxembourg and the Cayman Islands look like massive creditors when in reality they are just financial transit hubs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2022791666047098951)  2026-02-14T21:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Dr_Gingerballs Capital is horrendously misallocated with the US government spending recklessly and irresponsibly Thats not what Id describe as a booming economy. However I 100% agree that the Fed should be pursuing higher rates not lower ones"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1834806909570105623)  2024-09-14T04:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@ITMTrading @DiMartinoBooth Ugh And you close with a comment about gold thats bass ackwards Come on If the Fed lowers the Fed funds rate more than other CBs have theirs the $ is gonna weaken against those currencies. Interest rate parity A weaker $ equals higher gold prices in $ terms. Right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1836192392686506183)  2024-09-17T23:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge And mortgage rates go up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1836516146608222512)  2024-09-18T21:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Sansa314159 @MarioNawfal Its absolutely essential for us to be able to have some faith in the media but the msm have completely lost whatever limited credibility they once had. Fortunately we all have access to infinitely more info these days thanks in no small part to you We really appreciate it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1852482049539813434)  2024-11-01T22:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Sansa314159 @MarioNawfal After all what would we ever do without a good old fashioned spoof once in a while"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1852482959473045993)  2024-11-01T22:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CLewandowski_ @realDonaldTrump @DOGE Support"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1858745610268274707)  2024-11-19T05:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Per the Fed the GOJ & BOJ "hold an amount equal to more than 100% of the nations gross domestic product (GDP) in risky assets including domestic equities foreign equities and foreign bonds. In contrast a large fraction of their liabilities is in safer short-term assets.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1860374107751350306)  2024-11-23T17:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Japans Consolidated Balance Sheet and Challenges for Monetary Policy https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/oct/japans-consolidated-balance-sheet-challenges-monetary-policy https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/oct/japans-consolidated-balance-sheet-challenges-monetary-policy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1860374249623683467)  2024-11-23T17:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@leadlagreport Per the Fed the GOJ & BOJ "hold an amount equal to more than 100% of the nations gross domestic product (GDP) in risky assets including domestic equities foreign equities and foreign bonds. In contrast a large fraction of their liabilities is in safer short-term assets.""  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1860374849425932698)  2024-11-23T17:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@leadlagreport When Japan sells US Treasuries US interest rates will rise. Thatll cause the $ to strengthen against the . But when Japan converts the $ it received from the Treasury sales to thatll cause the to strengthen against the $. What a deal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1860463023124808004)  2024-11-23T23:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@leadlagreport Japan will give itself a nice Christmas present by selling $ denominated assets at a nice profit & converting the proceeds to Yen @ a favorable exchange rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1866264420797833471)  2024-12-09T23:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"LT rates are gonna continue to rise no matter what JPow does this week. However ST rates are a whole different story. Theyre below the Fed funds rate range so a [--] basis point cut would just align the policy rate with the market rates. If JPow doesnt cut however look out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1868666380863811923)  2024-12-16T14:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@leadlagreport GOJ intervention inbound. Since the BOJ left its policy rate unchanged the intervention will be a large sale of $ denominated assets. Only question is bonds or stocks (or both)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1869745014211014818)  2024-12-19T14:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@leadlagreport They ran stocks & crypto up for the specific purpose of building a pool of capital that could be tapped to support bonds. I get the strategy but its gonna bankrupt a ton of regular folks. On top of that rates (especially LT) are still gonna take off. And the will get richer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1873417709553393729)  2024-12-29T17:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@allthingsf74065 I agree with everything you said except the Japan part. Theyve spent the past 3+ decades accumulating $-denominated assets using -denominated debt. Thats the TRUE carry trade Now theyre about to start selling & repatriating that capital. What do you think thatll do"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1876450475119390795)  2025-01-07T02:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@leadlagreport [----] = Stocks down rates up crypto down gold up CRE down oil up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1877729626300219487)  2025-01-10T14:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Elex_Michaelson @GavinNewsom @LADWP You're just gonna let him say "new reality" like that's a given Really What a lazy hack Can't you do just a little bit of probing https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/los-angeles/average-temperature-by-year/month-january https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/los-angeles/average-temperature-by-year/month-january"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1878237637133099413)  2025-01-12T00:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Elex_Michaelson @GavinNewsom @LADWP [----] was the warmest January in the history of Los Angeles California. The average daily high temperature was [----] F and the average low was [----] F"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1878237846777323874)  2025-01-12T00:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Elex_Michaelson @GavinNewsom @LADWP Check out 1928: https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/los-angeles/year-1928#january https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/los-angeles/year-1928#january"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1878238064746610920)  2025-01-12T00:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Elex_Michaelson @GavinNewsom @LADWP The highest temperature recorded in Los Angeles California in [----] was [--] F which happened on September 6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1878238204442366434)  2025-01-12T00:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Elex_Michaelson @GavinNewsom @LADWP A nuisance in the climate of Los Angeles is represented by the Santa Ana a hot dry wind from the northeast which blows for a few days from the deserts of California and Arizona after passing over the mountains from which it descends https://www.climatestotravel.com/climate/united-states/los-angeles https://www.climatestotravel.com/climate/united-states/los-angeles"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1878238926378557542)  2025-01-12T00:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@Elex_Michaelson @GavinNewsom @LADWP It only takes a few key strokes and mouse clicks to find the truth but star reporter Elex Michaelson just gobbles up the bullshit fed to him by Gavin Newsom. How pathetic is that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1878239821791105159)  2025-01-12T00:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@leadlagreport The foreign securities on the GOJs consolidated balance sheet were = 56.1% of Japans GDP in [----]. Seems like a great source of capital w/ which to purchase oil no https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/oct/japans-consolidated-balance-sheet-challenges-monetary-policy https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2024/oct/japans-consolidated-balance-sheet-challenges-monetary-policy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1878621576813523041)  2025-01-13T01:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"I personally see Japans current fiscal & monetary situation as ideal https://www.reuters.com/world/japan/japan-government-plans-record-730-bln-budget-next-fiscal-year-jiji-reports-2024-12-25/ https://www.reuters.com/world/japan/japan-government-plans-record-730-bln-budget-next-fiscal-year-jiji-reports-2024-12-25/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1879174245701607883)  2025-01-14T14:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Their budgets are rising: Japan's government is set to compile a record $735 billion budget for the fiscal year from April"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1879174569942282427)  2025-01-14T14:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SpaceX I love your description Wouldnt change a single word. In fact next time someone pisses me off Im gonna tell em Im fixn to lay a rapid unscheduled disassembly on their ass"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1880046911459352736)  2025-01-17T00:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Ishiba Pledges to Boost Japans Investment in U.S. to $1 Trillion; Trump Says Meeting with Nippon Steel Execs Scheduled - The Japan News"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1888305598044979494)  2025-02-08T19:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"3) If the [----] # of $783.3 was about [---] trillion that would mean the exchange rate would've been about [---]. However during [----] the rate range was actually more like 130-150. Setting that aside let's assume the exchange rate now is the same it was then"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1888307418544959736)  2025-02-08T19:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The move to block Secretary Bessent from access to his own data was obviously an act of hysterical desperation Thats just plain lunacy & will never hold up in a million years. Get the case in front of the SCOTUS ASAP & see how many justices are willing to sacrifice whatevers left of their integrity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1888345395509739675)  2025-02-08T21:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"My apologies but while my ears perked up on the same comments as yours I heard them very differently. What I heard was rather that continuing to fixate mindlessly on the Fed Funds Rate which IS directly controlled by the Fed Bessent is gonna focus on the market driven 10Y rate. Thats essentially what classically-trained finance folks (like myself) have always done. I havent looked recently but do current finance text books use the Fed Funds Rate as the risk- free rate or the 10Y"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1888710388034011519)  2025-02-09T22:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@samshah778727 @allthingsf74065 I gave up on equities about [--] yrs ago cuz nothing made sense to me anymore. Yes I missed a big run up but I slept well at night. Whatll be interesting to see is what happens with Treasury rates when equities do crash. Will flight to safety cause them to fall Time will tell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1888715055677706268)  2025-02-09T22:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@leadlagreport The bigger trap though is the yield curve"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1907054237256720457)  2025-04-01T12:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Question: would you invest in a company with the following balance sheet Assets = $5.7M & Liabilities = $45.5M. Now replace the Ms w/ Ts & guess what Thats your government. Oh & the Ts stand for TRILLIONS https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/balance-sheets.html https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/balance-sheets.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1908533413029830723)  2025-04-05T14:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"DRV + SPXS + TMV = 🙂"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1909833539878895948)  2025-04-09T04:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Heres what the yield curve would look like if JayPow cuts 50BP"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1917578653883589026)  2025-04-30T13:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@zerohedge The most informative aspects of these bogus BS #s are the expectations pre-release & reactions post-release. Everything else about them is horse manure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1945109149383090316)  2025-07-15T13:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The last time the Fed lowered its policy rate T bill rates were below the policy rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1961418472006840628)  2025-08-29T13:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"So all the Fed did was pull the left side of the curve down so it would slope up to the right"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1961419039387124039)  2025-08-29T13:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Today the policy rate is below most of the T bill rates so why would the Fed lower it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1961419667051798856)  2025-08-29T13:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@nicksortor @TexanGmommy Matthew Dowd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1965987289647165751)  2025-09-11T03:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@nicksortor @TexanGmommy Seems like this Matthew Dowd character has a lot of hateful thoughts and is spewing an awful lotta hateful words"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1965988421022920814)  2025-09-11T03:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@onechancefreedm The insanely reckless deficit spending cant be ignored by the bond markets much longer. Double digits here we come"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1967409095838945527)  2025-09-15T02:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge JPow should raise 25bps"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1967608758420607041)  2025-09-15T15:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@onechancefreedm I agree w/ everything youre saying but am kinda surprised by what youre not saying. Surely youre aware that the largest asset class on the consolidated GOJ balance sheet is foreign securities (56.1% of [----] GDP). And you must know what that means"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1967753524009374197)  2025-09-16T00:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@onechancefreedm This is like me using my 25% credit cards to pay off my 2.25% mortgage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1969415287750664376)  2025-09-20T14:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@libsoftiktok @SecWar Per [--] U.S. Code [-----] whenever the President is unable with the regular forces to execute the laws of the United States he may call into Federal service members and units of the National Guard of any State in such numbers as he considers necessary toexecute those laws"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1972487075422425413)  2025-09-29T02:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Flight to safety into T-bills time. Wont last long though cuz theres WAY too much debt for T-bills to truly be considered safe by sane investors. Gold is the only safe harbor in this perfect storm https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-slide-as-us-china-tensions-rattle-nerves-big-banks-report-earnings-233314485.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-slide-as-us-china-tensions-rattle-nerves-big-banks-report-earnings-233314485.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1978099736830746682)  2025-10-14T14:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@onechancefreedm The yield curve is gonna get steeper & steeper. The universe will yank that dip in the middle up over time cuz the normal curve needs to be restored Itll probably do that by pulling hard on the right side of the string"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1978441910399144067)  2025-10-15T12:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@leadlagreport Itll work short term but despite DOGEs best efforts the federal government will still probably add $2.5T to its ginormous mountain of debt this year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1894392614902010238)  2025-02-25T14:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I asked Grok to do a DeepSearch into how much US stock the consolidated government of Japan currently owns. Groks conclusion: $287B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1924816135297564973)  2025-05-20T13:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Treasury added $68B in new debt to the mountain Tuesday & has added $588B in July. But nobody seems to care. Odd"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1950910487295844671)  2025-07-31T13:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@onechancefreedm Seems to me Bitcoin functions more like an overflow basin for excess liquidity than a macro asset. It helps keep inflation from running amok but other than that serves no useful purpose. The fact that it still even exists is a head scratcher to me"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1981957176810934397)  2025-10-25T05:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@leadlagreport Almost 2/3rds of the residents of my community are foreign born or children of foreign born. Hard working smart productive people from all over the world have been coming here for centuries to improve their lives. Anyone who doesnt like it here is free to live somewhere else"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1982951113780539886)  2025-10-27T23:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Isnt this effectively a way to increase the money supply w/o Fed involvement $s go into the Treasury thru T-bills used as collateral for StableCoins. Those StableCoins are then used to purchase goods & services thus functioning as money while the government spends the original $s"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1983162658879877277)  2025-10-28T13:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@onechancefreedm Isnt that $7 trillion sitting in money markets a huge part of whats funding the Treasurys ever expanding T-bill auctions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1984239365221134470)  2025-10-31T12:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@shanaka86 @allthingsf74065 Bessent is leaning more & more heavily every day on the short end of the curve to finance the rapidly increasing deficit All those extra dollars in M2 arent necessarily stagnant theyre being syphoned off to feed our bloated bureaucracy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1987564716231917672)  2025-11-09T16:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Rainmaker1973 But theyre building windmills to reduce their carbon footprint & save the world from climate change so everythings fine"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1990062040090575342)  2025-11-16T14:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@onechancefreedm Japans new PM is hell bent on going on a spending spree. Rather than printing more Yen to fund it Im guessing Japan will start selling off its Foreign Securities. In [----] Foreign Securities on their balance sheet were = 56.6% of their GDP. Thats about $2 1/2 Trillion folks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1990962148256948644)  2025-11-19T01:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@PeteHegseth The whole showing off the medals thing came across as arrogant & snobbish to begin with. Reminded me of those North Korean generals with the huge hats. We immensely appreciate the service of all our veterans but also respect humility more than pompousness"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1993308973546848265)  2025-11-25T13:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@PeterSchiff Bitcoin is selling off because the powers that be need the capital they parked in it. Bitcoin is a fake asset but a real reservoir. It sops up excess capital when they want it to and it releases that capital when they tell it to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1995144509735538704)  2025-11-30T14:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@leadlagreport The stock crash is coming but it wont save bonds"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1995150735068316127)  2025-11-30T15:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@zerohedge They can jawbone as much as they like but that wont change the fact that the Yen has been hanging in the 130-150 range for close to [--] years. Now its knocking on 160s door. If the Fed cuts & the BOJ hikes that range will likely shift to 150-170 territory. By By Carry Trade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1995857658293985457)  2025-12-02T14:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MoneyMaxwell21 AND the consolidated GOJ balance sheet is chock full of $-denominated assets to sell https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31850/w31850.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31850/w31850.pdf"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1996025521533321447)  2025-12-03T01:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@elonmusk Cutting discretionary spending wont do much to the deficit but attacking this massive fraud head long might actually make a meaningful dent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2005646338172830147)  2025-12-29T14:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"And the stampede for the exit begins https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-slide-as-nvidia-tesla-fall-to-start-2025s-final-week-110404612.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-slide-as-nvidia-tesla-fall-to-start-2025s-final-week-110404612.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2005650031874072842)  2025-12-29T14:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@onechancefreedm Is the Treasurys heavy reliance on bills designed to keep the pipes full or are they just unable to move right on the yield curve"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2008382408198963526)  2026-01-06T03:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@onechancefreedm So for the foreseeable future theyre trapped"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2008388185961668727)  2026-01-06T04:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@onechancefreedm The flight to safety is occurring but instead of it being to treasuries (like it usually is) its to precious metals. Interest rates are headed to the moon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2013608757876662586)  2026-01-20T13:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@leadlagreport What Im most interested in is the consolidated GOJs intervention methodology. The need to buy but with $s from where They hold over $1T in treasuries but using $s from selling any of those would raise US rates & strengthen the $. I think theyll sell stock instead"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2015452588909711482)  2026-01-25T15:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@leadlagreport Store of value smore of value. What matters to me is whether the value of my capital is positive with respect to the quality of my life. Call it whatever you like but at the end of the day placing some of my capital in gold has been valuable to me. Its just another tool"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2017603206168383733)  2026-01-31T14:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@leadlagreport I think flushing out the leverage is exactly what this whole episode is all about is it not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2017713722467484041)  2026-01-31T21:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@leadlagreport For crypto the systematic leverage ratio (excluding stablecoins) has dropped to approximately 3% of total market cap. This indicates that the market is currently less "top-heavy" than it was during the peak of 2025"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2017715699570118790)  2026-01-31T21:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@leadlagreport I totally get your point but I just dont know if investors trust bonds enough anymore to view them as a safe haven"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2019422021025927292)  2026-02-05T14:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@elonmusk The one thing I believe everyone should remember above all else is that as Buckaroo Banzai said: No matter where you go there you are"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/1894252148176949525)  2025-02-25T05:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"If he draws the TGA down to $600B he can get the debt below $38T by CYE"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2005661656580526302)  2025-12-29T15:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Gods Speed Venezuela 🚨 BREAKING: This Venezuelan man is going viral for explaining to everyone why Maduro NEEDED to be toppled The Democrats are clueless. Venezuela has already been invaded. 🔥 He knows his country. The people are ecstatic. https://t.co/Xu8TrL7uKD 🚨 BREAKING: This Venezuelan man is going viral for explaining to everyone why Maduro NEEDED to be toppled The Democrats are clueless. Venezuela has already been invaded. 🔥 He knows his country. The people are ecstatic. https://t.co/Xu8TrL7uKD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2007605162429542404)  2026-01-04T00:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"What a hypocrite [----]. Chuck Schumer criticizes Trump for not bringing an end to the Maduro regime. Schumer: "The President brags about his Venezuela policy Give us a break. He hasn't brought an end to the Maduro regime." https://t.co/kMkwSWd0yl [----]. Chuck Schumer criticizes Trump for not bringing an end to the Maduro regime. Schumer: "The President brags about his Venezuela policy Give us a break. He hasn't brought an end to the Maduro regime." https://t.co/kMkwSWd0yl"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2007923653841989701)  2026-01-04T21:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"AND get PAYED"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2013620100025262250)  2026-01-20T14:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Trumps gonna buy futures (paper silver) and demand delivery on expiration. Checkmate https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-launches-12-billion-minerals-120104530.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-launches-12-billion-minerals-120104530.html"  
[X Link](https://x.com/JeffBaird66/status/2018315832175280445)  2026-02-02T13:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

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