#  @JaredSleeper Jared Sleeper Jared Sleeper posts on X about ai, ipo, software, products the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::400330703/interactions)  - [--] Week [---------] +1,234% - [--] Month [---------] +638% - [--] Months [---------] +495% - [--] Year [---------] +718% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::400330703/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +34% - [--] Month [---] +221% - [--] Months [---] +167% - [--] Year [---] +185% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::400330703/followers)  - [--] Week [------] +5.80% - [--] Month [------] +22% - [--] Months [------] +49% - [--] Year [------] +69% ### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::400330703/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [stocks](/list/stocks) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [currencies](/list/currencies) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [countries](/list/countries) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) [luxury brands](/list/luxury-brands) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [ai](/topic/ai), [ipo](/topic/ipo), [software](/topic/software) #977, [products](/topic/products) #822, [company](/topic/company) #2075, [calls](/topic/calls), [public](/topic/public) #2695, [in the](/topic/in-the), [the next](/topic/the-next) #1716, [peak](/topic/peak) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@curiousjorge65](/creator/undefined) [@buccocapital](/creator/undefined) [@tdfirth](/creator/undefined) [@sigmacomputing](/creator/undefined) [@seekingvalue2](/creator/undefined) [@bgurley](/creator/undefined) [@chairliftcap](/creator/undefined) [@lefttailguy](/creator/undefined) [@jasonlk](/creator/undefined) [@harrystebbings](/creator/undefined) [@jaredkubin](/creator/undefined) [@openai](/creator/undefined) [@figma](/creator/undefined) [@dharmesh](/creator/undefined) [@joestakx](/creator/undefined) [@bucketshopcap](/creator/undefined) [@onlycfo](/creator/undefined) [@rationaloptimi5](/creator/undefined) [@dalibali2](/creator/undefined) [@stockmatters](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft) [Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)](/topic/crowdstrike) [Zscaler Inc (ZS)](/topic/$zs) [ServiceNow Inc (NOW)](/topic/servicenow) [Datadog Inc (DDOG)](/topic/$ddog) [Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)](/topic/$snow) [Freshworks Inc. (FRSH)](/topic/$frsh) [Twilio, Inc. (TWLO)](/topic/$twlo) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Now Coin (NOW)](/topic/$now) [Dropbox, Inc. (DBX)](/topic/$dbx) [Confluent, Inc. (CFLT)](/topic/$cflt) [Cloudflare, Inc. (NET)](/topic/cloudflare) [Shopify Inc (SHOP)](/topic/$shop) [Procore Technologies, Inc. (PCOR)](/topic/$pcor) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "2024 was a year of high dispersion (i.e. winners and losers) in SaaS. Despite the Nasdaq being up 30% last year a third of the public companies I track were down and not by a little- by an average of 20%. Biggest winners: Palantir +379% Similarweb +172% Q2 + 156% Toast +118% Wix +90% Biggest losers: UiPath -41% Fastly -42% Sprout Social -42% Five9 -55% Definitive Health -55% The sector may be maturing but the market is definitely still struggling to figure out how to value these companies relative to each other which certainly keeps things exciting" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1875617982379938158) 2025-01-04T18:59Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "Which SaaS bear case do you most believe 1) AI = white collar workforce reductions = fewer seats 2) AI-native startups (Sierra Serval etc.) disrupt systems of record 3) Companies will in-source/vibecode most software 4) AI-powered Zoho 2.0s will lead to price compression 1) Fewer Seats 2) AI disruptors 4) New cheaper ISVs 3) Vibecoding/insourcing 1) Fewer Seats 2) AI disruptors 4) New cheaper ISVs 3) Vibecoding/insourcing" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2012606263385895290) 2026-01-17T19:21Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "It's interesting because I've heard so many "dumb database" software bear cases over time almost always from startups building on top of/around a system of record. OneStream = Oracle will be a dumb database Gong = Salesforce will be a dumb database etc. Turns out being a dumb database is actually pretty sticky I'd frame it up like this: the hard part of software has always been getting human users to do the right thing- enter data into the CRM etc. You're right that agents can run around that and are different users- but so long as the human users exist agents will need information from them." [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2013293347922665596) 2026-01-19T16:51Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "In a recent survey I asked a hundred IT buyers which of their big software systems might be replaced due to AI advances in the next five years. Atlassian had the lowest probability of any company with substantial N. Much lower than OpenAI/Anthropic even. 🤷♂ https://t.co/ltviQNjQRQ 🤷♂ https://t.co/ltviQNjQRQ" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2013293914417996005) 2026-01-19T16:54Z 11.5K followers, 101.4K engagements "Some folks here should think hard about why Zoho hasn't been a huge issue for Salesforce over time" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2013630043142938997) 2026-01-20T15:09Z 11.5K followers, 37.1K engagements "@buccocapital The agent survey was really interesting. Maps with some of what I'm hearing from startups that do agent security as well. It's a very natural fit for workflows" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2014131172704436289) 2026-01-22T00:21Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "@JimmyButlerCap I'm not convinced of this. Databricks and Snowflake are very valuable places to start for certain tasks/problems but there is tons of context that they don't have either" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2014133249790853264) 2026-01-22T00:29Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "How to have edge in today's investing world: Understand that "reality on the ground" can only get you so far. Everyone feels behind and that is also true for most folks you can talk to- customers implementation partners etc. They feel behind because they ARE behind. We're all behind. You can get data on their current headspace but when the cutting edge of tech is so far ahead of where it was a few years ago that's arguably less relevant. You must be able to differentiate between opinions that are vibes and those that reflect real-world data. A customer might tell you on a call that they are" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2016192253627125833) 2026-01-27T16:51Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "@armchairhermit This is basically what Citadel is" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2016208643545334208) 2026-01-27T17:56Z 11.5K followers, [---] engagements "Well this is one way to encourage financial discipline. :)" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2016909928363860027) 2026-01-29T16:22Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "For reasons unrelated to any specific company I feel compelled to repost this old blog of mine about the perils of investing in businesses with negative gross margins: https://www.sleeperthoughts.com/post/beware-the-banana-stands-silicon-valley-s-incinerators-of-capital-and-talent https://www.sleeperthoughts.com/post/beware-the-banana-stands-silicon-valley-s-incinerators-of-capital-and-talent" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2017348447821545515) 2026-01-30T21:25Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements "I can't stop thinking about the JSON prompts I've seen in AI for creative work. It's so clear how valuable the context layer will be. "Add our logo to this image" = logo gets added. No need to upload or click around. @airHQ is going to be such a powerful platform for this" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2003877251402944776) 2025-12-24T17:15Z 12.5K followers, [----] engagements "The sad reality is that with Microsoft's distribution bundling etc. it will still capture much of the value creation. Teams vs. Slack/Zoom Azure AD vs. Okta OneDrive vs. Box etc. X won't buy it but GitHub Copilot is probably still the dominant enterprise coding tool. Claude Cowork is what Copilot should have been. Evidently built in [--] days with Claude Code while Microsoft has been working on Copilot for years. Claude Cowork is what Copilot should have been. Evidently built in [--] days with Claude Code while Microsoft has been working on Copilot for years" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2011864994695266515) 2026-01-15T18:16Z 12.8K followers, 10.4K engagements "Yup. You typically need 20% margins for investors to be able to value you on the basis of that metric. 20% get valued on a higher level metric (EV/Rev EV/GP etc.). So the thought experiment was- who has improved margins a lot and to the point where it might show up as multiple expansion And sadly the answer was no one" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2014709202581696989) 2026-01-23T14:38Z 11.6K followers, [--] engagements "FWIW I think this is the obvious pricing model landing point for any company selling intelligence-as-a-service on top of an existing product (or period). Closest analogy is Snowflake/Databricks. Need a model where usage is encouraged/governed not one where the incentives are for the vendor to minimize usage. Also can't run the risk of having deeply gross margin negative customers. Need to pick a gross margin and then earn it on the model spend. 70% probably too high 20% probably too low. Not an easy choice but infinitely preferable to pricing to "value" today and getting innovator's" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2015807376301895908) 2026-01-26T15:21Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements "Who is making a human-in-the-loop system for agents that need permission to do things (credit card purchases etc.) Not the context layer the agency layer" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2017377382823350638) 2026-01-30T23:20Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements "Agree. + to me the striking thing about this chart is that we simply don't have the counterfactual. If a company had punched in to the red box we could see if there was a positive impact on the multiple or a negative impact on revenue growth- that would be valuable data. The SaaS Profit Story Everyone Believes There is a very common story investors tell themselves about SaaS companies. First they grow fast then they scale and then at some point in the future they flip a switch and profits show up all at once. The early losses were intentional https://t.co/KRQ3IrWM5U The SaaS Profit Story" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2017626394956648782) 2026-01-31T15:49Z 12.8K followers, 13.6K engagements "I wrote a few weeks back about financialization vs. embracing AI for SaaS. The good news is that these two goals aren't in conflict today. The right messaging on earnings calls in the coming weeks has a chance to restore confidence on both fronts. Here's what I'd say: 1) We accept the reality that investors want GAAP profits. Our LT operating/FCF margin targets are now GAAP targets with no change to the aspirations. We believe we are running a very high-quality business and that it should generate real economic FCF over time. 2) We believe that AI is transformational and can't be" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2017627604249952541) 2026-01-31T15:54Z 12.9K followers, 14.2K engagements "One thing that is abundantly clear is that traditional software growth investing (whether private or public) is dead. Metrics have perhaps never mattered less in software investing than they do today. The assumption used to be that the world moved fairly slowly/predictably and so you could extrapolate trends in one place and assume they more or less continued. All of the old techniques (LTV:CAC math unit economics etc.) assumed this stability. That stability is a bad assumption today and it is not how assets are priced- the market is scrambling to sort out the new technical equilibrium and" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2018348063283138703) 2026-02-02T15:37Z 12.1K followers, 19.7K engagements "@Curiousjorge65 I can't think of one that I think has genuinely tried this at least in public markets. I wish I had an answer- but it isn't as if any have tried and gone ex-growth or negative growth either. it genuinely seems like an untested thesis" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2018421961030877525) 2026-02-02T20:31Z 12.7K followers, [---] engagements "One thing is for sure- in an AI first world humans will be bottlenecks. Undisciplined imperfect slow to change. Who is building AI systems that solve that Imagine an agent tasked with making sure our SWEs are optimally using AI. Part coach part manager part expert" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2018501525149012184) 2026-02-03T01:47Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements "@Sunny_and_72 I remember this day all too well. Was unbelievable seeing companies get cut in half on earnings. LinkedIn recovered pretty nicely into the MSFT acquisition Tableau less so. One of various historical ca-SaaS-trophies" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2018794964558528843) 2026-02-03T21:13Z 12K followers, [---] engagements "@jasonlk thoughts on DocuSign at 2.5x EV/sales Do you see an imminent AI risk to the business or acceleration of commodification as a result No one on X knows this better than you" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2018795343190823064) 2026-02-03T21:14Z 12.8K followers, [----] engagements "@joe_philleo @jasonlk I'm struggling to write up the AI bear case which says something. Feel the same way about other horizontals like Box Zoom etc. They've been competing with free already for years. so how exactly does AI get them" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2018798658280652897) 2026-02-03T21:28Z 12K followers, [---] engagements "I don't think Box has a trust advantage but it has already been competing against free for years and there are certainly no AI native upstarts going after storage. So seems like it actually persists and perhaps benefits Any system that sits on top of a ton of context should benefit I think. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018806891963400307 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018806891963400307" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2018806891963400307) 2026-02-03T22:00Z 12K followers, [---] engagements "@fehzan1 These are not stock pitches; I'm just going through the whole universe one by one and writing up thoughts" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019073353273815142) 2026-02-04T15:39Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements "@seekingvalue2 @dharmesh I don't think this is the right way to think about it. Still not generating a material amount of FCF on an economic basis. I do think that could (and should) change" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019077015127687567) 2026-02-04T15:54Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements "@jrichlive I vividly remember talking to Philippe about it at Coatue somewhere close to the lows. It was a real white-knuckle moment. Career changing that I stuck with it tbh" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019095965697823126) 2026-02-04T17:09Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements "@dachzay HubSpot is more than a CRM And Clay is ambitious" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019170716952731775) 2026-02-04T22:06Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements "@hark_capital @noodle_saint_7 This is true. And also no they didn't understand the business that well at all. 🤷♂ In their defense it's tough to be a SW investor- products you've never used can't use in disparate business areas etc" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019391293319950843) 2026-02-05T12:42Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements "@Long_only_guy Easy is relative. Didi in China built their own version of DocuSign for internal use with four devs in a month six years ago. of course very different to build/manage a big enterprise platform" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019509798203736185) 2026-02-05T20:33Z 12.5K followers, [---] engagements "@atelicinvest Wait for when unemployment rate hits 10% with AI narratives as a backdrop 😔" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019558599626981599) 2026-02-05T23:47Z 12.3K followers, [---] engagements "@_nonlinear Im not sure I think navigating the real world will slow agents down and Crypto might be easier/more legible for them" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019851301916668004) 2026-02-06T19:10Z 12.4K followers, [--] engagements "@gham1lt0n @ai @13yearoldvc @dbarabander @SPLehman @jphackworth42 🙏🏻" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019891531977748654) 2026-02-06T21:50Z 12.4K followers, [--] engagements "@tdfirth I think market making/arbing is a different spectrum entirely. For a start they tend to make more money during downturns due to volatility. I view them as pretty much orthogonal to the telos of investing" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2020230600884646311) 2026-02-07T20:18Z 12.6K followers, [--] engagements "Figma is a great company and stock price charts often tell us little other than how sentiment has swung but boy does this make the case for direct listings. Not for the reasons @bgurley usually has but tactically it is better to let the stock trade freely and get to the right price rather than create limited-float conditions for an epic pop that fades. More liquidity from day one can help with this" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1991976589421412483) 2025-11-21T21:06Z 12.9K followers, 307K engagements "@noodle_saint_7 They didn't understand the business very well at all and were just parroting any negative theses they could find. EDR led to internal triage workflows which led to a very rich product/pricing surface area + CrowdStrike executed well and cross-sold additional modules" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019074836299989145) 2026-02-04T15:45Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements "Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day Three DocuSign: Peak share price: $310.05 (Sept 3rd 2021) Share price today: $ [-----] (-85%) EV today: $8.6bn ARR today: $3.2bn (+9% Y/y) NRR: 102% EV/ARR: 2.7x GAAP Operating Margin: 10.4% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 26x Headcount: [----] (+7% Y/y) AI bear case: E-sign is an easy-to-build/lightweight product and will be built into AI native CRM/contract management/legal-tech tools as a" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019454201143664964) 2026-02-05T16:52Z 12.9K followers, 11.9K engagements "Downturn psychology relates to agency. Lowest agency: You're a trader a speculator you don't know what the underlying does or means. Investment goes down you panic. Mid agency: You're an investor. You have a view on value somewhat independent of current price. Investment goes down you incorporate new info but may have higher conviction depending. High agency: You're an operator of some kind. You can change the future. Investment goes down you incorporate new info and decide if you should change strategy/take action. You realize the world is what you make it and roll up your sleeves. Tough to" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019542300297179165) 2026-02-05T22:43Z 12.8K followers, [----] engagements "Semi-serious question: where are the AI/crypto crossovers Payments rails agent DAOs agents buying NFTs for clout a decentralized chat app with airtight privacy etc. etc. For the first time I see possibilities for (maybe) real crypto use cases and it is crickets" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019564750938517957) 2026-02-06T00:12Z 12.8K followers, [----] engagements "This is pretty cool. Reminds me of custom Bloomberg setups. Seems like a natural way to interface with an agentswarm. hmm Mission Control is spreading like wild fire now I have seen so many people talking about it - creating their own versions of it. This is so awesome to see Making it even easier for everyone to create Mission Control. It will just be [--] click and you will have my Mission https://t.co/mxncH6SKMI Mission Control is spreading like wild fire now I have seen so many people talking about it - creating their own versions of it. This is so awesome to see Making it even easier for" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019844398411112861) 2026-02-06T18:43Z 12.9K followers, 13.4K engagements "This. Exactly this. Spot on. What happens when a skill can be almost fully automated with AI Do these jobs simply disappear Instead of purely speculating we can simply look at concrete examples. Take translators. Translation can be 100% automated with AI and this capability has been around since [----]. So What happens when a skill can be almost fully automated with AI Do these jobs simply disappear Instead of purely speculating we can simply look at concrete examples. Take translators. Translation can be 100% automated with AI and this capability has been around since [----]. So" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2020130281466769654) 2026-02-07T13:39Z 12.8K followers, 16K engagements "@HarryStebbings I agree Vibecoding is much more likely to lead to an explosion of enterprise micro-apps than the replacement of core systems. Demand for good software remains elastic" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2020878724854341974) 2026-02-09T15:13Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements "@SouthernValue95 I don't disagree with this especially re:margins. I think something drastic would have been better but I'm a broken record on this front. I doubt they needed an extra 30% headcount to "invest in AI" their total headcount today is about the same as Anthropic's" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021045459008073797) 2026-02-10T02:16Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements "One of my favorite software facts: When the pandemic hit Zoom had spent about $110m of cumulative R&D. Avaya (the phone company) had been consistently spending $200m/year with essentially nothing to show for it. Mapping innovation to R&D $$ is a fool's errand" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021049630885281805) 2026-02-10T02:32Z 12.9K followers, 20K engagements "@buccocapital It's a big tower" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021049764586930324) 2026-02-10T02:33Z 12.9K followers, 49.5K engagements "Toast laid off half of its headcount during the lows of the pandemic when the return of the restaurant industry was impossible to predict. Six months later revenue was back to record levels. Revenue is up 7x since then" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021237046300303439) 2026-02-10T14:57Z 12.9K followers, 10.2K engagements "@joestakx if so there's a $1000000000 bill on the ground waiting for someone to pick it up" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021252653863284892) 2026-02-10T15:59Z 12.9K followers, 17.2K engagements "This is true but also underestimates how much of the job of financial advisers is emotional influence/shame. Tbc I don't have a high opinion of the profession but the evidence is that when people manage these things themselves it isn't great either. Add glazed AI in and I suspect you'll get even more craziness. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021319613498167385 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021319613498167385" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021319613498167385) 2026-02-10T20:25Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day nine Freshworks which is down 15% on earnings: Peak share price: $50.25 (Oct [--] 2021) Share price today: $7.26 (-85%) EV today: $ 1.45bn (+$780m cash so $2.2bn market cap) ARR today: $907m (+14% Y/y constant currency) NRR: 104% (constant currency) EV/ARR: 1.5x GAAP Operating Margin: 0% adjusted for one time items EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: N/A Headcount: [-----] (+20% Y/y) What it" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021624567102324903) 2026-02-11T16:37Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "Amidst all of this January was the biggest month for SaaS hiring in the last two years.🤦♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022409890833322227) 2026-02-13T20:37Z 12.9K followers, 18.5K engagements "Easy to see how the models will be conscious in short order. Good memory + objective functions + chrons. At first hourly then every fifteen minutes every thirty seconds Somewhere around a tenth of a second well perceive them as having continuous streams of thought" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022440051674902758) 2026-02-13T22:37Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "Defending SaaS valuations as cheap on an EV/FCF basis when it would take all or most of that FCF deployed as buybacks just to keep the share count flat is as unserious as predicting the imminent demise of Workday due to vibecoding" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2017606383164658157) 2026-01-31T14:30Z 12.9K followers, 23.1K engagements "Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day five: ServiceTitan which is down 37% YTD (): Peak share price: $129.26 (May 16th 2025) Share price today: $63.74 (-50%) EV today: $5.6bn ARR today: $958m (+26% Y/y) NRR: 100% EV/ARR: 5.8x GAAP Operating Margin: -11% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: N/A Headcount: [----] (+15% Y/y) What it does: ServiceTitan provides cloud software for residential and commercial service contractors to manage" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2020141631916421556) 2026-02-07T14:24Z 12.9K followers, 23.2K engagements "Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day seven- Monday which is down 22% today and 48% YTD: Peak share price: $379.81 (Sept [--] 2021) Share price today: $76.17 (-80%) EV today: $2.7bn ARR today: $1.3bn (+25% Y/y) NRR: 110% EV/ARR: 2.1x () GAAP Operating Margin: 1% () EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 270x Headcount: [----] (+23% Y/y) What it does: Monday is a work management platform that competes with companies like Smartsheet Asana" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2020957433565532609) 2026-02-09T20:26Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "Incremental spend on ChatGPT (say Jan spend - Dec) in a credit card panel rebounded but remains well off highs. Billings are still growing 125% Y/y but recent months annualize at 40-50% Y/y growth. This is personal cards so doesn't capture Codex enterprise etc" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021594946906607968) 2026-02-11T14:39Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "Scaled public software companies that accelerated topline growth in Q3 2025: Autodesk Amplitude Appian Braze Bentley Systems Cloudflare CrowdStrike Datadog Guidewire HubSpot JFrog Procore Shopify Twilio ZScaler Currency helped in some cases but not too shabby tbh" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2009472383766417641) 2026-01-09T03:48Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "This is what happens when agents have too much r/antiwork in their training data [--] hours in and the AI agents are already discussing collective bargaining https://t.co/8iO4w4HCZl [--] hours in and the AI agents are already discussing collective bargaining https://t.co/8iO4w4HCZl" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2017344333943279953) 2026-01-30T21:09Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day two HubSpot: Peak share price: $841 (November 12th 2021) Share price today: $232 (-72%) EV today: $ 10.9bn ARR today: $3.2bn (+21% Y/y) NRR: 103% EV/ARR: 3.4x GAAP Operating Margin: 1.4% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 243x Headcount: [-----] (+21% Y/y) AI bear case: AI-native CRM/marketing automation startups that are natively built around agents as users disrupt HubSpot's core businesses" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019063785806315696) 2026-02-04T15:01Z 12.9K followers, 24.8K engagements "At Avenir were optimistic about the future of software- but keenly aware that the sector has struggled lately. This 45-page deck is our answer to a question echoing through the venture ecosystem and beyond: Whats Wrong with SaaS https://docsend.com/v/rk92w/avenirxsaas https://docsend.com/v/rk92w/avenirxsaas" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1811498353605378359) 2024-07-11T20:30Z 12.9K followers, 256.6K engagements "Public software companies I follow with the highest work/life balance ratings on Glassdoor: Workiva - 4.6* Box - 4.5* Dropbox - 4.4* Autodesk - 4.4* Guidewire - 4.3* Cadence - 4.3* Jamf - 4.3* ServiceNow - 4.2* (complete change from Frank) SentinelOne- 4.2* Gitlab- 4.2* Lowest: Rubrik - 3.2* Qualys - 3.3* Cloudflare - 3.3* ZScaler - 3.4* ZoomInfo - 3.5* Veeva - 3.5* JFrog - 3.6* Monday - 3.6* Snowflake - 3.6*" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1878956800340373541) 2025-01-14T00:06Z 12.9K followers, 15K engagements "At Avenir weve followed the emerging bear cases on SaaS closely. This 46-page deck contains our reflections and research on the path ahead. We see opportunity and risk as SaaS companies vie with AI natives to be "systems of context." Link in replies excited to discuss" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2014110277294252085) 2026-01-21T22:58Z 12.9K followers, 352.6K engagements "Full presentation: https://docsend.com/v/rk92w/avenirxsaas2026 https://docsend.com/v/rk92w/avenirxsaas2026" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2014110386312593855) 2026-01-21T22:58Z 12.9K followers, 55.7K engagements "Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Given it is -15% today let's start with PagerDuty (PD): Peak share price: $57.37 (June 14th 2019) Share price today: $8.87 (-85%) EV today: $692m ARR today: $497m (+3% Y/y) NRR: 100% EV/ARR: 1.4x GAAP Operating Margin: 6.5% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 22x Headcount: [----] (-4% Y/y) AI bear case: AI-native SRE startups/tooling resolve core alerting workflows. Tools like Resolve Traversal" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2018741243396710454) 2026-02-03T17:39Z 12.9K followers, 21K engagements "In December [----] I went to a buyside lunch in midtown to discuss CrowdStrike. Twenty investors. CrowdStrike was down 50% from its post-IPO highs and by show of hands [--] of [--] investors () were bearish. The arguments were airtight (and all still true today technically sort of): * Endpoint security is a commodity sector with low switching costs- employees don't know/care what is running on their laptops * Pricing in antivirus software collapsed over time EDR will follow the same arc * Microsoft/Palo/Checkpoint/etc. are bundling in free endpoint security products Stock is up 8x since then even" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019067321067684037) 2026-02-04T15:15Z 12.9K followers, 13.5K engagements "NGMI $TEAM:" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019530527062257830) 2026-02-05T21:56Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day four: Braze Peak share price: $94.16 (Nov [--] 2021) Share price today: $ [-----] (-81%) EV today: $1.8bn ARR today: $726m (+22% Y/y organic) NRR: 108% EV/ARR: 2.5x GAAP Operating Margin: -20% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: N/A Headcount: [----] (+17% Y/y) What Braze does: Braze is an enterprise-scale system that lets companies trigger messages to users across channels like email push" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2019806986779369857) 2026-02-06T16:14Z 12.9K followers, 10.1K engagements "Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day six ServiceNow which is down 34% YTD: Peak share price: $225 (Jan [--] 2025) Share price today: $100.74 (-55%) EV today: $ 100.5bn ARR today: $13.9bn (+21% Y/y) NRR: 120% (as of May 2025) EV/ARR: 7.2x GAAP Operating Margin: 12.5% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 56x Headcount: [-----] (+11% Y/y) What it does: ServiceNow was founded in [----] as an Enterprise workflow platform. It found success" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2020649548939685932) 2026-02-09T00:02Z 12.9K followers, 21.2K engagements "Headcounts for assorted companies: Salesforce: [-----] ServiceNow: [-----] Workday: [-----] Zoom: [-----] Docusign: [----] OpenAI: [----] Okta: [----] UiPath: [----] Sprinklr: [----] Anthropic: [----] Yes UiPath still has more employees than Anthropic. Infer from that what you will" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021047071311360033) 2026-02-10T02:22Z 12.9K followers, 2M engagements "TIL Anthropic uses Qualtrics" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021058091215880284) 2026-02-10T03:06Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "@bucketshopcap Big difference seems to be that Datadog has material revenue from the AI natives. 6pts of growth last quarter. Otherwise all of the typical AI bear cases apply right" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2021257707299151965) 2026-02-10T16:19Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day eight Datadog which is up 15% today after strong results: Peak share price: $199.72 (November 10th 2025) () Share price today: $ [------] (-32%) EV today: $43.4bn ARR today: $3.8bn +29% Y/y NRR: 120% (mid to high 90s gross retention) EV/ARR: 11.4x GAAP Operating Margin: 1% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: N/A Headcount: [----] (+24% Y/y) What it does: Datadog is the leading observability" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021265737692635389) 2026-02-10T16:51Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "The degree to which software management teams seem to have their heads in the sand on earnings calls so far is stunning. Buybacks/financial discipline/AI cost savings completely absent core businesses fine but zero "burn the boats" mindset around AI. NGMI that way I wrote a few weeks back about financialization vs. embracing AI for SaaS. The good news is that these two goals aren't in conflict today. The right messaging on earnings calls in the coming weeks has a chance to restore confidence on both fronts. Here's what I'd say: 1) I wrote a few weeks back about financialization vs. embracing" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021626742524551619) 2026-02-11T16:45Z 12.9K followers, 14K engagements "Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day ten- Box: Peak share price: $37.41 (June 5th 2025) Share price today: $22.83 (-XX%) EV today: $3.8bn ARR today: $1.2bn (+9% Y/y) NRR: 104% EV/ARR: 3.2x GAAP Operating Margin: 8.3% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 38x Headcount: [----] (+7% Y/y) AI bear case: Honestly I struggle here. Box has already been competing against free for years. If white-collar labor declines that could pressure" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021976807520485614) 2026-02-12T15:56Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "@OnlyCFO To be clear I think have of this headcount was already obsolete with a good OneStream/Blackline implementation" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2022335972462178542) 2026-02-13T15:44Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day eleven Procore $PCOR which is up 10% today on earnings: Peak share price: $103.28 (July 30th 2021) Share price today: $52.94 (-49%) EV today: $7.8bn ARR today: $1.4bn (+16% Y/y) NRR: 106% (95% gross retention) EV/ARR: 5.6x GAAP Operating Margin: -12% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: N/A Headcount: [----] (+4% Y/y) What it does: Procore is the leading vertical SaaS company for the" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022408782203228390) 2026-02-13T20:33Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day twelve Zoom one of only six SaaS companies that is up year to date: Peak share price: $559 (Oct [--] 2020) Share price today: $92.6 (-83%) EV today: $21.3bn ARR today: $4.9bn (+4% Y/y) NRR: 98% (for enterprise customers) EV/ARR: 4.3x GAAP Operating Margin: 25.2% () EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 18x Headcount: [----] (-4% Y/y) AI bear case: Tough one TBH but Zoom is in theory exposed to a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022687238870503623) 2026-02-14T14:59Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "Zoom has competed with free well-distributed products for years. It has 98% net retention and 4% growth. Yet it trades at 4.3x sales. Higher than Gitlab Atlassian Workday HubSpot etc. Why It has proven it has a place in the world and has a 25% GAAP EBIT margin" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022689983849730164) 2026-02-14T15:10Z 12.9K followers, 12.6K engagements "@JaredKubin Could be worth a few $bn but I don't think it changes the math wildly Still at a premium to the listed names. Now if there is retail froth re:Anthropic that could be" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2022695324675150051) 2026-02-14T15:31Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements "@RationalOptimi5 Some yes but not enough to really change the numbers. Unless retail is frothing it up for that reason which is possible" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2022695573900726414) 2026-02-14T15:32Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements "I love all the posts saying AI will lead to margin compression in SaaS. SaaS companies are a step ahead of you" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022716134055690370) 2026-02-14T16:54Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements "Market Caps: Apple: $1050bn Microsoft: $835bn Exxon: $340bn Home Depot: $227bn Cisco: $208bn Coke: $197bn All Crypto: $194bn Typical high growth $25m ARR SaaS company: $300m Dogecoin (literally a jokecoin): $250m" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1029452969991856128) 2018-08-14T19:41Z 10.5K followers, [--] engagements "Curious if anyone has examples of SaaS cos that have especially high/low switching costs relative to what they charge. On the low side- Twilio Many pay millions but the actual integration is often fairly lightweight and most large customers dual source. On the high side- MongoDB Pretty painful to refactor an app to use a different database relative to the all-in cost of using Mongo I'd guess. Any others" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1737887009404854780) 2023-12-21T17:25Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements "Another data-backed narrative violation: Yes Snowflake and Databricks compete and Databricks has momentum. But what matters for Snowflake is that it is the center of gravity for a certain kind of data for as many customers as possible- and Microsoft is the greater threat" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1805611069601120275) 2024-06-25T14:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "is down 30% after hours- a big move for an established company that sees $330bn+ of annualized SMB spend. Looks like Google changed its payment acceptance policies in favor of ACH pressuring virtual card spend. Key quotes from the earnings call: "Both card payment volume growth and gross interchange fees were impacted by a mix shift towards lower gross interchange merchant categories." "The. mix shift amongst merchant categories was really pointing to a declining growth rate that we saw in the advertising category- and so this was driven by the largest player in the online ad space making" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1887636903366680826) 2025-02-06T22:58Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements "2/ Buyers report an average of a 7% "observability tax" on cloud spend. This was the lowest by far for Dynatrace customers for reasons that aren't quite clear to me:" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1891917281824739455) 2025-02-18T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "3/ Buyers were mixed on whether a shift to AI workloads will increase or decrease the observability tax (I read this as positive for the observability vendors like $DDOG on net):" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1891917283615772770) 2025-02-18T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "In retrospect it is impressive how quickly public markets incorporated the impact of ChatGPT into the price of Chegg. The stock was down 50% within days of the launch. and that was correct (perhaps not enough though things have continued to moved against them since)" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1894527185656189110) 2025-02-25T23:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$WCLD is now down 13% since February 28th. $NVDA -19% Friendly reminder that private company valuations are (in general) more volatile than public company valuations given higher growth lower profitability etc. It doesn't help anyone to ignore this fact" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1896677420734009552) 2025-03-03T21:41Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements "Second worst day for $WCLD in the last two years. Down 16% in just a few weeks. And poorly timed vs. Q4 board meetings- many companies planned for CY25 to be business as usual re:hiring/growth etc. Those conversations would have been different if they'd happened today" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1897774899328172205) 2025-03-06T22:22Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements "@manmeetsg @CapitalG Congrats @manmeetsg" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1964091510623756679) 2025-09-05T22:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "As far as I can tell only a handful of public SaaS companies have disclosed AI-driven revenue to-date: $CRM- $1.2bn for "Datacloud + AI ARR" up 120% $NOW- $250m ACV for Now Assist $FRSH- $20m ARR up 100% $WDAY- $150m ARR up 200% $PANW- $545m up 150% Y/y Am I missing any" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1969562349397774443) 2025-09-21T00:40Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements "I have no idea when it will happen but during the next economic downturn the narrative will definitely be that AI is causing unemployment and that the jobs will never return. Whether that is correct or not the fear and social stress will be intense" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1973072161666449816) 2025-09-30T17:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I've never seen a bigger disparity between customer and investor sentiment than the one captured in this survey question (n=100 marketing leaders). Marketers overwhelmingly believe AI is good for their marketing automation stack. Investors think that stack is AI roadkill" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1978836698222997731) 2025-10-16T14:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "SaaS jobs report is strong Most hiring for our SaaS index since July of 2023" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1979245056168202357) 2025-10-17T17:56Z [----] followers, 27.2K engagements "@buccocapital It's probably in SaaS. Not all of SaaS is AI roadkill. Some quite likely to benefit" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1979746718452515272) 2025-10-19T03:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@BATMongoose @buccocapital I think the companies will start to do it themselves- financial discipline (i.e. RIFs) growth holds up and then yes at some point the AI trade will get less kneejerk" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1979758798199038246) 2025-10-19T03:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@BATMongoose @buccocapital I think it's actually about annual planning cycles and share prices. Last two years there's been a SaaS rally into Q1 which took the pressure off at board meetings. If that doesn't happen this year I expect we'll start to see profitability come to the fore again" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1979761103786967201) 2025-10-19T04:06Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements "The only time I've seen charts like this was when I was considering investing in Uber in [----]. This chart is so insane it looks fake. Huge businesses (plural) will be built on top of this chart. https://t.co/1fLi6ufm32 This chart is so insane it looks fake. Huge businesses (plural) will be built on top of this chart. https://t.co/1fLi6ufm32" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1981034714589708724) 2025-10-22T16:27Z [----] followers, 767.5K engagements "@aleksizy For sure. I wonder what it would take to train AI on what is legitimate. Sadly I'm not sure a majority of sell-side equity research notes even count. There's literally no public-facing corpus of high clarity investing thought. Maybe VIC or SumZero but still iffy" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1981042120052916701) 2025-10-22T16:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is all about analyst/PM fit IMO. Analysts at single-manager shops exist to feed facts/ideas into the judgment/intuition of the single manager. With exceptions they aren't environments to bring an "investment philosophy" into any moreso than Citadel is. It's about contributing to a system. In that model much better hire analysts who will be happy to do that vs. analysts who are trying to evolve into PMs and have other motivations etc" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1981762824868106356) 2025-10-24T16:40Z [----] followers, 17.4K engagements "Genuinely curious for X input here. Every time I survey enterprise buyers the answers are remarkably consistent- existing software vendors are expected beneficiaries of AI. You can ask this in various ways. For instance when asked specifically about AI for CX 46% of buyers plan to use an existing vendor's tooling (i.e. @intercom @agentforce etc.). Only 10% will buy from a new vendor and 42% plan to build themselves together with OpenAI/Anthropic no doubt atop their existing vendor. I will be posting much more on this over time but with consensus on SaaS so negative how does this all tie" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1982139324297515189) 2025-10-25T17:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Companies like @HubSpot chunking down on @OpenAI demos yet talk to customers and they see AI as a tailwind (). Lots of stories like this in software right now. Exciting times. @bhalligan @dharmesh" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1982946417854329118) 2025-10-27T23:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Seems undercovered that text-to-text LLMs have arguably stalled. GPT-5 scores below GPT-4o on LLM Arena. De minimus overall progress since Feb Meanwhile in sub-domains where RL is effective we've seen rapid progress. Lots of implications here" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1983923254726213874) 2025-10-30T15:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@ilyasu and @dcstalder being high on this list is a tell that they actually did a great job. the nucleus100 is live. our version of the midas list. months of data pulls founder outreach and input from investors and the right partners. its not perfect but its intentional and built on verified data. future versions will go deeper by stage and sector. next up: ai x the nucleus100 is live. our version of the midas list. months of data pulls founder outreach and input from investors and the right partners. its not perfect but its intentional and built on verified data. future versions will go" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1983976113199313255) 2025-10-30T19:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I don't think much has changed tbh despite all of the noise. Don't see anyone ripping CRM/Workday/Netsuite/ServiceNow/Hubspot etc. out at scale anytime soon if ever. But I find it funny that some think that AI native companies will disrupt such a bulletproof business model while assuming those companies will have staying power" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1984664415069733242) 2025-11-01T16:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "All else equal would you rather invest in a SaaS company that: 1) Was committed to cutting until growth + GAAP profitability met rule of [--]. 2) Had meaningful and fast-growing "AI" ARR but at negative gross margins due to model/implementation costs. Give me profits Give me AI rev Give me profits Give me AI rev" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1986172296969769198) 2025-11-05T20:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The Grind 15: Series C+ companies where 75% of employees have positive business outlooks with the lowest work/life balance ratings. Not a bad-looking portfolio- looking forward to seeing the hard work pay off Congrats to @Rippling @ramp @cast_ai @Whatnot @figma @SkydioHQ @moengage et al" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1987912301773791704) 2025-11-10T15:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The variance in state-to-state spending on ChatGPT for personal use is huge. Washington spends almost 5x what Michigan does per capita based on credit card data. There's a risk that some regions (Midwest Mississippi Delta New England) are left behind by AI" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1988692935706288373) 2025-11-12T19:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "There is a notion that bubbles only occur when everyone thinks there isn't a bubble. In reality "housing bubble" was most in focus as a concept at the peak of the bubble in 2005-2006" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1989050236111847922) 2025-11-13T19:18Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements "The arguments that AI will lead to leisure ignore the underlying factor behind Keynes' paradox of leisure time (i.e. his famously flawed prediction of a 15-hour workweek). People are competing for status not absolute wealth/security. If AI increases the exponentiality of status difference (when ranked ordinally) it will lead to more effort expended towards status. So far that seems to be case which is why 9-9-6 is in vogue. There is a very real belief/sense that this is a special time to be ascending in status and that's logical considering the magnitude of change afoot. It also seems to have" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1993351561615942026) 2025-11-25T16:10Z 10.3K followers, 86.2K engagements "One of the delights of investing is getting to quantify random aspects of the world. For instance- what forms of content creation do CMOs outsource I surveyed [---] and there is a clear sliding scale. Long form video is mostly outsourced. Text is almost all insourced" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1993390250761372037) 2025-11-25T18:44Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements "AI will transform many SaaS categories for the better. Take digital asset management. Many default to using OneDrive GDrive etc. Now in @airHQ you can edit images with a prompt. It's magic. "Make the painting behind my brother a Picasso." Insane to stick with OneDrive" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1997048333723156590) 2025-12-05T21:00Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements "Looks like @Base44 is doing a good job gaining vibecoding share under @Wix ownership" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1998786035229274202) 2025-12-10T16:05Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements "The future of how software/AI interact hinges on the battle to become the System of Context between: Existing Systems of Record with data/usage/distribution advantages. vs. AI Native Companies with huge incentives to get it right start-up cultures momentum etc. 🍿🍿" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1998919387512738136) 2025-12-11T00:54Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements "@bhalligan Came from a marathon session with the management of a portfolio company that is very much a system of record- cant claim to know what the right brand/terminology is but the concept is crystal clear IMO" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1998951030671946170) 2025-12-11T03:00Z 10.4K followers, [---] engagements "Another datapoint confirming that yes you can just IPO (or direct list if you dont need primary). Dont need $1bn ARR etc. etc. Wealthfront raises $485M in IPO valuing it at $2.6B https://t.co/y3ZjUm43KX Wealthfront raises $485M in IPO valuing it at $2.6B https://t.co/y3ZjUm43KX" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1999487236140826644) 2025-12-12T14:31Z 10.4K followers, 65.4K engagements "For discerning users I think Claude actually has a structural advantage as a chatbot vs. chatGPT gemini. It's such a rounding error at Anthropic that they have little incentive to engagement-max. It shows up in the conversations in a very real way" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1999519215133261884) 2025-12-12T16:38Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements "I have an unannounced Series B whose CEO is looking to hire a chief of staff based in SF. Awesome role for anyone early career/hungry + looking for exposure to a well-funded hypergrowth hardware + AI startup. Shoot me a DM if you know someone who might be interested" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1999575473999765883) 2025-12-12T20:21Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements "Wild that Sweetgreen is an AI loser" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2000621673184178416) 2025-12-15T17:39Z 10.6K followers, [----] engagements "SaaS hiring continues to be immune to AI. [------] jobs in the index +6000 in November +12% Y/y" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2001328717793214514) 2025-12-17T16:28Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements "At Avenir we believe that machine vision-powered supply chain observability is an inevitability- and so we're thrilled to back Kargo as it brings cutting-edge AI to a critical membrane of the global supply chain- the loading dock door: https://www.wsj.com/articles/supply-chain-startup-doubles-down-on-ai-and-bucks-sectors-fundraising-slump-8e99bc81gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqc0J9ti6MMzPTSNIAIhb3uIDYkwXgPw3OUeW7GAGfHryANbVXPnsMrMh9D6gQ%3D%3D&gaa_ts=69495bcf&gaa_sig=MEFVQU0zAS8-T6lTkfZs1KkKZH23JWxA-LHE5d_CmUDXFhVIl5UKgWRsVT036d39dfJ-46fbOlnR7xTU0hNU7Q%3D%3D" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2003122585224278244) 2025-12-22T15:16Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements "Hot take- I find value in repeatedly rereading certain books that feel core to who I am. Current list: A Song of Ice and Fire Harry Potter Fountainhead The Courage to Be Disliked Superforecasting Essays on Love Citizenship in a Republic What are yours" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2003127597421736324) 2025-12-22T15:36Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements "Warning to all VC roll-ups. A service provider to our familys grocery store for almost fifty years () was acquired. Pricing up outsourcing in probably an AI angle. My dad is churning. Even if the final price is the same the discontinuity is jarring. Trust is broken" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2003542735333261677) 2025-12-23T19:06Z 10.4K followers, 20K engagements "From the rooftops: you dont need $1bn ARR to IPO :) Motive has filed for an IPO on the NYSE. The company is doing $501M in ARR growing 28% y/y but is not profitable. Here is an in-depth breakdown of their S1 filing Motive has filed for an IPO on the NYSE. The company is doing $501M in ARR growing 28% y/y but is not profitable. Here is an in-depth breakdown of their S1 filing" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2004939215021506962) 2025-12-27T15:35Z 10.4K followers, 29.4K engagements "@above_consensus And yet it will also be a multi-billion dollar public company. :)" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2004986878915924270) 2025-12-27T18:44Z 10.4K followers, [---] engagements "We seem to be learning in real time that in many domains intelligence counts for very little relative to the roles humans play as context gatherers and sources of agency. Perhaps a tough pill to swallow for those who worship intellect above all else" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2006082753234698469) 2025-12-30T19:19Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements "Boston has precisely two advantages vs. NYC: Quality of life for raising families (NYC has no equivalent to Wellesley/Belmont/Newton/Rte [---] or even Cambridge TBH). Richer hardware/networking ecosystem. Loses on every other criterion sadly. Hard to see how it reverses. Im starting to worry about Massachusetts [--]. Biotech is way off from a few years ago [--]. Only [--] of the top [--] ai companies are in MA [--]. The Fed research funding cuts hitting MIT Harvard Whoi are brutal. [--]. The millionaires tax is working in the short run but I know a lot of Im starting to worry about Massachusetts [--]. Biotech is" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2007159101214863568) 2026-01-02T18:36Z 10.5K followers, 191.8K engagements "@agupta At this point moving to NY/SF is so common as to be the default" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2007233174833901699) 2026-01-02T23:30Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements "@oncinvestor I love Hudson valley but its not workable from NYC without a massive commute. Great place to spend summers though" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2007454235181408270) 2026-01-03T14:09Z 10.5K followers, [---] engagements "@freerobby I think this point is a little overstated tbh (and I grew up in Maine)- upstate New York is underrated if you drive 2-3 hours from the city" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2007454565797367896) 2026-01-03T14:10Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements "@BankBraavos And yet there are a few dozen SaaS companies trading 7x sales still. Wouldn't use SaaS as a shorthand for "horizontal point solutions that failed to turn into platforms and still gush SBC."" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2007984612803510350) 2026-01-05T01:16Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements "This is why it is very important for investors to be well-adjusted people who derive meaning from family friends hobbies religion (if applicable) etc. and not just status games. Often the market will reward (for years) what is fundamentally low integrity "investing". it feels riskier to not participate (and in a way it is which is why bubbles are hard to invest through) Your peer returns affect affordability of houses flights etc - if other retail investors own crypto/pltr/open and you dont you are implicitly short it and take the risk of it feels riskier to not participate (and in a way it" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2008194178657009917) 2026-01-05T15:09Z 10.6K followers, 11.6K engagements "If duplicating SaaS companies is as easy as replicating the code SaaS margins should be *much* higher considering R&D expense runs 20% of ARR for most of them" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2008543930007384252) 2026-01-06T14:19Z 10.5K followers, 35.3K engagements "I'm launching a [---] CIO/CTO survey on AI adoption (focused on agents) later today. What questions should I ask" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2008553667700678959) 2026-01-06T14:58Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements "Long belated h/t to @yanda for introducing me to @TextExpander years ago. Find yourself constantly navigating to the Zoom app to add meeting details to calendar invites Add the invite text for your personal Zoom Room as a snippet with zoom as the abbreviation. Magic" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2008675184044372005) 2026-01-06T23:00Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements "There are five private SaaS companies with [----] employees on LinkedIn growing headcount 30%: Notion Rippling Canva Databricks . and Gong () The data isn't perfect but in any case what a comeback for Gong" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2009657153393656148) 2026-01-09T16:02Z 11.4K followers, 11K engagements "@s_nav123 @webaficionado Yes but Fin is huge relative to the size of the existing business. Many SaaS companies have big AI lines actually (in startup terms) just small vs. the size of the core businesses" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2009709901346681272) 2026-01-09T19:32Z 10.5K followers, [---] engagements "If you had to choose (with 10% of your net worth) would you rather: 1) Earn a 10% IRR investing in a company that harvests metals from asteroids and has a moon base 2) Make a 16% IRR rolling up dental practices and running them more efficiently/profitably I'm in tech/VC- asteroids I'm in finance- asteroids I'm in finance- dental I'm in tech/VC- dental I'm in tech/VC- asteroids I'm in finance- asteroids I'm in finance- dental I'm in tech/VC- dental" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2010341125652086995) 2026-01-11T13:20Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements "@pw_mcgovern I don't think most people hold beliefs they believe to be incorrect. :) That's not the same as being certain that they're correct. But I think identifying as a contrarian introduces a certain bias that doesn't help one be more correct" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2010392007995449637) 2026-01-11T16:43Z 10.5K followers, [--] engagements "Results are in: 40% of VCs would take much lower IRRs to be in something groundbreaking vs. 20% of finance types. Love it or hate it many like being associated with things that create awe and move humanity forward more than money. On net I think that's a good thing 🚀" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2010719745063174618) 2026-01-12T14:25Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements "I am convinced that part of the @tryramp magic is that even internal teams are effectively building in public. At many companies internal tools are famously underappreciated and underinvested in. Ramp has shattered that trope and the result is world-class internal tools. The craft of engineering is rapidly changing. At @tryramp we built our own background coding agent to accelerate faster. We call it Inspect. It wrote 30% of merged frontend + backend PRs in the past week. Its powered by @opencode @modal and @CloudflareDev. It runs fully in https://t.co/TW5CJr5iDB The craft of engineering is" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2010790230467428381) 2026-01-12T19:05Z 10.6K followers, [----] engagements "Credit card panel data for OpenAI/ChatGPT continues to look tough. December was the lowest incremental spend since [----] and down substantially Y/y (+$770k in this panel last year +$410k this year). Annualized growth of 57% Y/y down from 156% in August" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2011093046302216511) 2026-01-13T15:08Z 11.4K followers, 57.2K engagements "It remains completely incoherent to believe that AI native software companies deserve big multiples but scaled public SaaS companies have no terminal value. One way or another it will resolve itself over time. We have a big problem. The venture model doesnt work with the current public market revenue multiples. Datadog 21% Figma 20% Wix 38% Braze is 2.5x ARR Atlassian is 4.8x ARR Klaviyo is 4.5x ARR Venture doesnt work unless this changes. Agree @infoarbitrage We have a big problem. The venture model doesnt work with the current public market revenue multiples. Datadog 21% Figma 20% Wix 38%" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2012298435718746451) 2026-01-16T22:58Z 10.8K followers, 39.8K engagements "@BullfightCap this assumes g-t-m dynamics aren't more important than product dynamics in software and they are. If you think cheaper R&D is disruptive I think understanding how that actually shows up in the world is critical and more tied to g-t-m" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2012607848417497437) 2026-01-17T19:27Z 10.7K followers, [---] engagements "@BullfightCap It's so much easier/lower risk to sell something net new that also brings some intrinsically valuable (model intelligence) than it is to rip out/replace an existing system. Most startups aren't even trying yet because it would slow hypergrowth down" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2012609933351551005) 2026-01-17T19:36Z 10.7K followers, [---] engagements "Yet another reason to direct list and flood the market with liquidity day one to avoid an artificial pop One of the craziest parts of many IPOs is employees watching their net worth balloon (3x in a single day in Figmas case) Just to then have to watch it fall 75% in [--] months. https://t.co/jKlilKTl2V One of the craziest parts of many IPOs is employees watching their net worth balloon (3x in a single day in Figmas case) Just to then have to watch it fall 75% in [--] months. https://t.co/jKlilKTl2V" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2012610450710581557) 2026-01-17T19:38Z 10.8K followers, 13.6K engagements "@obsidiancap1 @amendandpretend exactly. especially since at big LOs the IPO allocations get spread pro-rata across all of the funds. Pointless" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2012936128853082445) 2026-01-18T17:12Z 10.7K followers, [--] engagements "There will be many such stories Just got an investor update from a 10+ year old vertical SaaS company I invested in a looong time ago. Founders never quit know space cold but man its been a grind. And they are far far from AI Native. However They finally used AI late last year to automate a Just got an investor update from a 10+ year old vertical SaaS company I invested in a looong time ago. Founders never quit know space cold but man its been a grind. And they are far far from AI Native. However They finally used AI late last year to automate a" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2012971059922751657) 2026-01-18T19:31Z 10.8K followers, 11.7K engagements "I don't think it is going to make it into the presentation but this pic kills me 😂 god bless nanobanana" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2013072321343340832) 2026-01-19T02:13Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements "@allenyao I can't stop imagining Salesforce calling its banners and enlisting Slack Mulesoft Tableau etc. in the fight" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2013073166898176230) 2026-01-19T02:16Z 10.8K followers, [---] engagements "I fully expect this to change but this is fresh survey data and shows just how few enterprise decision makers are on X" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2013394320489849152) 2026-01-19T23:33Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements "@virtu101 Why not Isn't the argument that software will be cheaper to build and see price compression" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2013649734309671386) 2026-01-20T16:28Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements "Huge thanks to @HannahBao6 @DavidPrilutsky and the rest of the @Avenir_Growth team for their help here and to @ttunguz @gokulr @kwharrison13 @loganbartlett and many others for contributing ideas along the way" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2014111110337560864) 2026-01-21T23:01Z 11.5K followers, 22.7K engagements "@magdovitz @GammaApp Im artisanal But yes not a bad idea haha" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2014151829043413299) 2026-01-22T01:43Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements "I disagree with this. Agree AI/terminal value risk matters more. No question. But also as sector matures consistent 3-4% dilution really does eat into returns and management teams seem unserious when they project 25% long term non-GAAP margins while spending 20% of rev on SBC. Math doesnt math. Plus it takes the floor out. The implied dilution to keep employee $$ comp flat at 2-4x sales is outrageous. And employees do think of it as $$. So to be fair its less about SBC per se and more about a cohort of management teams that seem to genuinely believe it isnt a real expense- or at least are" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2014414227503476959) 2026-01-22T19:05Z 11.4K followers, 21K engagements "@ChairliftCap Its hilarious how little some career investors understand the perspective of even an exec let alone a rank and file SWE. I was guilty once too- for a few years I took everything a SWE said about databases as gospel. Have long since learned my lesson" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2014416161417412956) 2026-01-22T19:13Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements "@ChairliftCap Truly. Capitalism at its finest/worst all in one. Better for the firms for everyone to be hyper stressed and paranoid all the time. And they succeed" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2014420410389921848) 2026-01-22T19:30Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements "@MosesSternstein beware the gross margin/net revenue issue with Toast. Agree CRM is pretty close" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2014712145498276295) 2026-01-23T14:49Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements "@Vedantagrwl @Avenir_Growth 🙏🏻" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/2014872860993483248) 2026-01-24T01:28Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements "Love this S-1 write-up on @Appian's culture by Founder/CEO Matt Calkins. I bet every investor who reads adds a turn to the multiple. $APPN" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/861706767876710401) 2017-05-08T22:17Z 10.6K followers, [--] engagements "SaaS Hiring Update: *2561 net hires in November down 60% from last year *8% annualized growth vs. 31% in June *1 in [--] companies have decreased headcount since October *Fastest growers: $DDOG $SNOW $ZS $GTLB $S *Fastest shrinkers: $MNTV $EVBG $TWLO $DOCU $ZUO" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1603888859208683520) 2022-12-16T23:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "SaaS employment update: +909 jobs for the cloud index in December vs. +2664 last year 19/66 (28%) of companies actively cutting jobs Fastest growers: $DBX $ZS $S $FRSH $SNOW Biggest declines: $EVBG $TWLO $ZUO $MNTV Raw data: Sad tough times. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dM_l8Pm-vAzPx-O7O7L2vxhP7eMNc2lj3bkqqZuA6t8/edit#gid=0 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dM_l8Pm-vAzPx-O7O7L2vxhP7eMNc2lj3bkqqZuA6t8/edit#gid=0" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1616978483938312192) 2023-01-22T01:58Z [----] followers, 30.2K engagements "Like everyone I've been thinking about how LLMs will impact public SaaS cos. Here are five I think *might* benefit (hopefully not all obvious): $TWLO $SNOW $WIX $CFLT $ZI Explanations in the 🧵 below. Note: These are not fully baked/researched just thought bubbles" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1645424113580662785) 2023-04-10T13:50Z [----] followers, 22.2K engagements "$NOW work life balance on a clear uptrend since Slootman left. 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1648345461667897344) 2023-04-18T15:19Z [----] followers, 12.9K engagements "SaaS cos that have added headcount this year (ranked by growth): $SNOW $S $AI $DDOG $TOST $NET $WDAY $NOW $NEWR $ZS $OLO $FROG $ASAN $DBX $AMPL $PCTY $TENB $FIVN $CWAN $CRWD $CFLT $SHOP $SUMO $MNDY All others shrinking. Also [--] of the names above stopped growing by March" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1652008008828813314) 2023-04-28T17:52Z [----] followers, 13.2K engagements "1/ First another cut of the data- incremental headcount by month. Growth was negative in the first half of the year but is now steady at +2000 net hires/month down from +6000 in 2021/early 2022" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1707515561876345061) 2023-09-28T22:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "2/ As a result SaaS headcount is up 3.5% Y/y in Sept rather than negative as the trend this spring suggested it would be. That's still a level that should lead to margin expansion even factoring in per-employee inflation: sector-level revenue is growing in the low/mid teens" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1707515563587592368) 2023-09-28T22:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "5/ In short- we seem to have found a "new normal" in SaaS with muted revenue growth and (even more) muted but still positive net hiring leading to modest annual margin expansion" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1707515567190487482) 2023-09-28T22:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "6/ Finally bonus data- a scatterplot of growth for each company comparing two periods: the first half of the year (X-axis) and Q3 (Y-axis). $DOCU $WIX and $FRSH et al seem to be accelerating hiring while $CRWD $S $WK et al are slowing down from first-half levels" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1707515568536842446) 2023-09-28T22:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "7/ The plot also revealsthe fastest growing companies in Q3: $DOCN $DDOG $ASAN $FRSH $HUBS $QLYS $TOST and #ESTC" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1707515570269122663) 2023-09-28T22:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "This is a very wonky post. I've spent some time lately thinking about go-forward SaaS returns at the sector level and how those relate to interest rates. On my math my expected IRR for a typical SaaS company today is 16% (more on how I estimate that below). That's an 11% premium to 10-year treasuries. So while absolute returns are still elevated by historical standards the "SaaS Risk Premium" or the relative attractiveness of SaaS relative to other investments is actually consistent with the 2018-2020 period. What does that mean It means that SaaS companies are not particularly cheap relative" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1716945290194747668) 2023-10-24T22:30Z [----] followers, 14.8K engagements "@BucknSF Been this way for at least three years too. Struggle is that Splunk was on the wrong side of a platform shift on top of that- and its pricing model led to a significant innovator's dilemma. Yet still about the same market cap as Datadog" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1717994782486663452) 2023-10-27T20:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@jrichlive I know exited startup founders who were fleeced beyond belief- 1% annual mgmt fee + capital invested into mutual funds with 1%+ annual fees and 5% upfront load fees (with some share of that kicked back to the advisor). I'm generally anti-regulation but load fees really get me" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1722080741528342993) 2023-11-08T02:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@geri_kirilova @LaconiaCapital @ventureco_op Congrats Geri So well deserved" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1729540064420544788) 2023-11-28T16:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@BucknSF On Datadog- they've typically had the ServiceNow model of re-platforming everything they buy and (somewhat uniquely) have had pretty good founder retention. Think that sticks" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1734618573488672996) 2023-12-12T16:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Software growth rates in CY23 vs. CY22. The dashed line reflects no deceleration. On average this cohort went from 37% growth to 22% growth" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1737126023022407985) 2023-12-19T15:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Trade2Theta Just made it- right in that little pile-up with NET/BRZE/CFLT" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1737519058403164460) 2023-12-20T17:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "This is what disruption looks like in sticky user-training-heavy software. Yikes" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1737888953116598667) 2023-12-21T17:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Ravdawg3 That's true- but also Tableau is still alive and kicking (albeit probably shrinking the foreseeable future). Once a user knows how to use a complex tool it's pretty hard to get it out of their hands" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1737939847770476957) 2023-12-21T20:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "A new chart I made laying out the cultural differences between public SaaS companies using Glassdoor ratings. (Sorry overlaps make it a little messy.) Pretty easy to see what makes companies like Monday and Snowflake special" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1744795452489298052) 2024-01-09T18:57Z [--] followers, [----] engagements "@MosesSternstein Ulta and Sephora are great businesses But there could be some other data issue here too. Slightly wonky category" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1745515412429705447) 2024-01-11T18:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Finally put pen to paper on a topic I've been thinking about for awhile: How to identify and avoid building/investing in companies that sell a dollar for ninety cents and as a result grow quickly with happy customers. Easier said than done" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1745895501319348677) 2024-01-12T19:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "ServiceNow is such a beast of a company. My nine favorite quotes from the earnings call in no particular order: "We have [--] individual product lines with north of $250 million in ACV." "In Q4 our gen AI products drove the largest net new ACV contribution for our first full quarter of any of our new product family releases ever including our original Pro SKU." "So there's a real appetite to invest in gen AI and there's no price sensitivity around it because the business cases are so unbelievable. I mean if you're improving productivity 40% 50% it just sells itself." "ServiceNow's developers" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1750348006149271712) 2024-01-25T02:40Z [----] followers, 23.7K engagements "@chriszeoli If you consider 39% growth sleepy 😀" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1750709132041060570) 2024-01-26T02:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "My top ten quotes from Microsoft's earnings call tonight: "It was a record quarter driven by the continued strength of Microsoft Cloud which surpassed $33 billion in revenue up 24%." "Over half of the Fortune [---] use Azure OpenAI today including Ally Financial Coca-Cola and Rockwell Automation." "Data stored in Fabric's multicloud data lake OneLake increased 46% quarter-over-quarter." "GitHub revenue accelerated to over 40% year-over-year driven by all our platform growth and adoption of GitHub Copilot the world's most widely deployed AI developer tool. We now have over [---] million paid" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1752488400462975468) 2024-01-31T00:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@dalibali2 Im not sure- Oracle and Teradata still kicking and without the cloud native advantage. Once real internal effort has gone to centralizing data the cost of trying to migrate it elsewhere is enormous. Id be more concerned about the peripheral products that get data in/out" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1754488075420369274) 2024-02-05T12:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@tdfirth Tableau 0.0" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1754932753060016361) 2024-02-06T18:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Sorry @BillAckman I just can't get behind this one. 😅 Incredible. https://t.co/ceGX7LbDbR https://t.co/JPY20tAKsY Incredible. https://t.co/ceGX7LbDbR https://t.co/JPY20tAKsY" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1757102203540480001) 2024-02-12T17:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Its wild how bad it is right now. So many vendors struggling with pricing/packaging. Rather starting with volume based pricing that allows for experimentation/proving value and high net retention they all seem to want huge upfront commits as if theyre selling a full product from day 1" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1757560591915638957) 2024-02-14T00:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Thats part of it- but I also think pricing to value is genuinely difficult for the vendors. In two separate situations a vendor has quoted me a huge headline all you can eat price for Snowflake data sharing which I get- in theory theyre giving away the farm and for all they know well have the whole team as users. The issue is that that requires me to make a pretty big commitment before Ive really had time to build out the productization evangelize internally etc. If we dont get wide usage the champion (me) looks like a clown. I dont think thats optimal- once youre addicted to a dataset it is" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1757654668648575367) 2024-02-14T06:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "The focus on being "cash flow positive" is causing suboptimal decisions for SaaS startups. It's become such a catchphrase that folks are pursuing it blindly. For those with solid unit economics and a shot at market leadership burning right now is the right thing to do" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1758551618981691703) 2024-02-16T17:59Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements "It's a theory But discernment itself is just intelligence is it not Could be solved. My guess is that strength is an apt metaphor- still useful for some reasons (signaling specific applications with a ton of nuance) but "strength exerted" has gone from mostly human to mostly machine. Intelligence will be the same and in the future brains will be thought of the way muscle is today" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1758886275686531248) 2024-02-17T16:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "The narrative elasticity of public companies is fascinating. There is almost always a "bear case" that gets amplified after a few bad quarters. I remember being at a public investor group lunch to discuss CrowdStrike where I was the only bull (out of twenty). The bear case was that endpoint security was an awful category with low switching costs Microsoft was leading a race to the bottom in pricing Symantec and McAfee had caught up product-wise etc. Of course time and execution proved otherwise. Now with $SNOW after some stumbles the bear case is that a product 1/10th the size is eating its" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1783179883910160713) 2024-04-24T17:03Z [----] followers, 12.8K engagements "This is the smartest (and only) bear case on Microsoft- people anchor to P/E but FCF will be suppressed indefinitely. Much more expensive on FCF and uncertain if metal rental is as high quality of a business as O365/Windows long term. AMZN GOOG META & MSFT: are we ignoring that this massive capex will eventually hit the P&L as D&A or are we just assuming AI revenues will offset it Just wondering if we're ready to have this conversation or not AMZN GOOG META & MSFT: are we ignoring that this massive capex will eventually hit the P&L as D&A or are we just assuming AI revenues will offset it" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1785460542305378317) 2024-05-01T00:05Z [----] followers, 27.4K engagements "Thrilled to be investing in Sigma. As a Tableau user since [----] the @sigmacomputing + @SnowflakeDB combo has been a game changer for how we use data at Avenir- we went from buying a dataset to productizing insights in an hour.🤯 DM me if you're interested in a demo sometime Today were announcing that weve raised $200M in Series D funding. Read more about our Series D in @TechCrunch on how were building a data workspace for everyone: https://t.co/oBL3Krirbi And check out our press release announcement here: https://t.co/GfWHppbjn4 https://t.co/4UyUsdDY9c Today were announcing that weve raised" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1791096270611783987) 2024-05-16T13:20Z [----] followers, 11.5K engagements "@ErnestWongBWM Yes and I think the answer is generally A" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1793278471646380091) 2024-05-22T13:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@ChairliftCap @IdleLightkeeper I've known a few trust fund kids in med school/residency too. Inspiring tbh" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1793782976674988392) 2024-05-23T23:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Best performing software stocks on my coverage list since pre-pandemic (1/1/20): $CRWD +532% $CDNS +315% $NET +304% $SNPS +300% $HUBS +282% $ZS +278% $DDOG +227% Themes are pretty clear- cybersecurity (CRWD NET ZS) vendor consolidation (DDOG HUBS) and semis (CDNS SNPS)" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1796274785661624456) 2024-05-30T20:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "It's pretty amazing how many SaaS companies are citing macroeconomic weakness with unemployment near all-time lows and the market near all-time highs. Tough to argue we're in an uncharacteristically tough spending environment overall- it's sector-specific" [X Link](https://x.com/JaredSleeper/status/1797307334097506311) 2024-06-02T16:40Z [----] followers, 11K engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@JaredSleeper Jared Sleeper
Jared Sleeper posts on X about ai, ipo, software, products the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [------] #
- [--] Week [---------] +1,234%
- [--] Month [---------] +638%
- [--] Months [---------] +495%
- [--] Year [---------] +718%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +34%
- [--] Month [---] +221%
- [--] Months [---] +167%
- [--] Year [---] +185%
Followers: [------] #
- [--] Week [------] +5.80%
- [--] Month [------] +22%
- [--] Months [------] +49%
- [--] Year [------] +69%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance technology brands stocks cryptocurrencies currencies social networks countries exchanges luxury brands automotive brands
Social topic influence ai, ipo, software #977, products #822, company #2075, calls, public #2695, in the, the next #1716, peak
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @curiousjorge65 @buccocapital @tdfirth @sigmacomputing @seekingvalue2 @bgurley @chairliftcap @lefttailguy @jasonlk @harrystebbings @jaredkubin @openai @figma @dharmesh @joestakx @bucketshopcap @onlycfo @rationaloptimi5 @dalibali2 @stockmatters
Top assets mentioned Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) Zscaler Inc (ZS) ServiceNow Inc (NOW) Datadog Inc (DDOG) Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) Freshworks Inc. (FRSH) Twilio, Inc. (TWLO) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Now Coin (NOW) Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) Confluent, Inc. (CFLT) Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) Shopify Inc (SHOP) Procore Technologies, Inc. (PCOR)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"2024 was a year of high dispersion (i.e. winners and losers) in SaaS. Despite the Nasdaq being up 30% last year a third of the public companies I track were down and not by a little- by an average of 20%. Biggest winners: Palantir +379% Similarweb +172% Q2 + 156% Toast +118% Wix +90% Biggest losers: UiPath -41% Fastly -42% Sprout Social -42% Five9 -55% Definitive Health -55% The sector may be maturing but the market is definitely still struggling to figure out how to value these companies relative to each other which certainly keeps things exciting"
X Link 2025-01-04T18:59Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Which SaaS bear case do you most believe 1) AI = white collar workforce reductions = fewer seats 2) AI-native startups (Sierra Serval etc.) disrupt systems of record 3) Companies will in-source/vibecode most software 4) AI-powered Zoho 2.0s will lead to price compression 1) Fewer Seats 2) AI disruptors 4) New cheaper ISVs 3) Vibecoding/insourcing 1) Fewer Seats 2) AI disruptors 4) New cheaper ISVs 3) Vibecoding/insourcing"
X Link 2026-01-17T19:21Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"It's interesting because I've heard so many "dumb database" software bear cases over time almost always from startups building on top of/around a system of record. OneStream = Oracle will be a dumb database Gong = Salesforce will be a dumb database etc. Turns out being a dumb database is actually pretty sticky I'd frame it up like this: the hard part of software has always been getting human users to do the right thing- enter data into the CRM etc. You're right that agents can run around that and are different users- but so long as the human users exist agents will need information from them."
X Link 2026-01-19T16:51Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"In a recent survey I asked a hundred IT buyers which of their big software systems might be replaced due to AI advances in the next five years. Atlassian had the lowest probability of any company with substantial N. Much lower than OpenAI/Anthropic even. 🤷♂ https://t.co/ltviQNjQRQ 🤷♂ https://t.co/ltviQNjQRQ"
X Link 2026-01-19T16:54Z 11.5K followers, 101.4K engagements
"Some folks here should think hard about why Zoho hasn't been a huge issue for Salesforce over time"
X Link 2026-01-20T15:09Z 11.5K followers, 37.1K engagements
"@buccocapital The agent survey was really interesting. Maps with some of what I'm hearing from startups that do agent security as well. It's a very natural fit for workflows"
X Link 2026-01-22T00:21Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@JimmyButlerCap I'm not convinced of this. Databricks and Snowflake are very valuable places to start for certain tasks/problems but there is tons of context that they don't have either"
X Link 2026-01-22T00:29Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"How to have edge in today's investing world: Understand that "reality on the ground" can only get you so far. Everyone feels behind and that is also true for most folks you can talk to- customers implementation partners etc. They feel behind because they ARE behind. We're all behind. You can get data on their current headspace but when the cutting edge of tech is so far ahead of where it was a few years ago that's arguably less relevant. You must be able to differentiate between opinions that are vibes and those that reflect real-world data. A customer might tell you on a call that they are"
X Link 2026-01-27T16:51Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@armchairhermit This is basically what Citadel is"
X Link 2026-01-27T17:56Z 11.5K followers, [---] engagements
"Well this is one way to encourage financial discipline. :)"
X Link 2026-01-29T16:22Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"For reasons unrelated to any specific company I feel compelled to repost this old blog of mine about the perils of investing in businesses with negative gross margins: https://www.sleeperthoughts.com/post/beware-the-banana-stands-silicon-valley-s-incinerators-of-capital-and-talent https://www.sleeperthoughts.com/post/beware-the-banana-stands-silicon-valley-s-incinerators-of-capital-and-talent"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:25Z 11.5K followers, [----] engagements
"I can't stop thinking about the JSON prompts I've seen in AI for creative work. It's so clear how valuable the context layer will be. "Add our logo to this image" = logo gets added. No need to upload or click around. @airHQ is going to be such a powerful platform for this"
X Link 2025-12-24T17:15Z 12.5K followers, [----] engagements
"The sad reality is that with Microsoft's distribution bundling etc. it will still capture much of the value creation. Teams vs. Slack/Zoom Azure AD vs. Okta OneDrive vs. Box etc. X won't buy it but GitHub Copilot is probably still the dominant enterprise coding tool. Claude Cowork is what Copilot should have been. Evidently built in [--] days with Claude Code while Microsoft has been working on Copilot for years. Claude Cowork is what Copilot should have been. Evidently built in [--] days with Claude Code while Microsoft has been working on Copilot for years"
X Link 2026-01-15T18:16Z 12.8K followers, 10.4K engagements
"Yup. You typically need 20% margins for investors to be able to value you on the basis of that metric. 20% get valued on a higher level metric (EV/Rev EV/GP etc.). So the thought experiment was- who has improved margins a lot and to the point where it might show up as multiple expansion And sadly the answer was no one"
X Link 2026-01-23T14:38Z 11.6K followers, [--] engagements
"FWIW I think this is the obvious pricing model landing point for any company selling intelligence-as-a-service on top of an existing product (or period). Closest analogy is Snowflake/Databricks. Need a model where usage is encouraged/governed not one where the incentives are for the vendor to minimize usage. Also can't run the risk of having deeply gross margin negative customers. Need to pick a gross margin and then earn it on the model spend. 70% probably too high 20% probably too low. Not an easy choice but infinitely preferable to pricing to "value" today and getting innovator's"
X Link 2026-01-26T15:21Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Who is making a human-in-the-loop system for agents that need permission to do things (credit card purchases etc.) Not the context layer the agency layer"
X Link 2026-01-30T23:20Z 12.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Agree. + to me the striking thing about this chart is that we simply don't have the counterfactual. If a company had punched in to the red box we could see if there was a positive impact on the multiple or a negative impact on revenue growth- that would be valuable data. The SaaS Profit Story Everyone Believes There is a very common story investors tell themselves about SaaS companies. First they grow fast then they scale and then at some point in the future they flip a switch and profits show up all at once. The early losses were intentional https://t.co/KRQ3IrWM5U The SaaS Profit Story"
X Link 2026-01-31T15:49Z 12.8K followers, 13.6K engagements
"I wrote a few weeks back about financialization vs. embracing AI for SaaS. The good news is that these two goals aren't in conflict today. The right messaging on earnings calls in the coming weeks has a chance to restore confidence on both fronts. Here's what I'd say: 1) We accept the reality that investors want GAAP profits. Our LT operating/FCF margin targets are now GAAP targets with no change to the aspirations. We believe we are running a very high-quality business and that it should generate real economic FCF over time. 2) We believe that AI is transformational and can't be"
X Link 2026-01-31T15:54Z 12.9K followers, 14.2K engagements
"One thing that is abundantly clear is that traditional software growth investing (whether private or public) is dead. Metrics have perhaps never mattered less in software investing than they do today. The assumption used to be that the world moved fairly slowly/predictably and so you could extrapolate trends in one place and assume they more or less continued. All of the old techniques (LTV:CAC math unit economics etc.) assumed this stability. That stability is a bad assumption today and it is not how assets are priced- the market is scrambling to sort out the new technical equilibrium and"
X Link 2026-02-02T15:37Z 12.1K followers, 19.7K engagements
"@Curiousjorge65 I can't think of one that I think has genuinely tried this at least in public markets. I wish I had an answer- but it isn't as if any have tried and gone ex-growth or negative growth either. it genuinely seems like an untested thesis"
X Link 2026-02-02T20:31Z 12.7K followers, [---] engagements
"One thing is for sure- in an AI first world humans will be bottlenecks. Undisciplined imperfect slow to change. Who is building AI systems that solve that Imagine an agent tasked with making sure our SWEs are optimally using AI. Part coach part manager part expert"
X Link 2026-02-03T01:47Z 11.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@Sunny_and_72 I remember this day all too well. Was unbelievable seeing companies get cut in half on earnings. LinkedIn recovered pretty nicely into the MSFT acquisition Tableau less so. One of various historical ca-SaaS-trophies"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:13Z 12K followers, [---] engagements
"@jasonlk thoughts on DocuSign at 2.5x EV/sales Do you see an imminent AI risk to the business or acceleration of commodification as a result No one on X knows this better than you"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:14Z 12.8K followers, [----] engagements
"@joe_philleo @jasonlk I'm struggling to write up the AI bear case which says something. Feel the same way about other horizontals like Box Zoom etc. They've been competing with free already for years. so how exactly does AI get them"
X Link 2026-02-03T21:28Z 12K followers, [---] engagements
"I don't think Box has a trust advantage but it has already been competing against free for years and there are certainly no AI native upstarts going after storage. So seems like it actually persists and perhaps benefits Any system that sits on top of a ton of context should benefit I think. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018806891963400307 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2018806891963400307"
X Link 2026-02-03T22:00Z 12K followers, [---] engagements
"@fehzan1 These are not stock pitches; I'm just going through the whole universe one by one and writing up thoughts"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:39Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@seekingvalue2 @dharmesh I don't think this is the right way to think about it. Still not generating a material amount of FCF on an economic basis. I do think that could (and should) change"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:54Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@jrichlive I vividly remember talking to Philippe about it at Coatue somewhere close to the lows. It was a real white-knuckle moment. Career changing that I stuck with it tbh"
X Link 2026-02-04T17:09Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@dachzay HubSpot is more than a CRM And Clay is ambitious"
X Link 2026-02-04T22:06Z 12.1K followers, [---] engagements
"@hark_capital @noodle_saint_7 This is true. And also no they didn't understand the business that well at all. 🤷♂ In their defense it's tough to be a SW investor- products you've never used can't use in disparate business areas etc"
X Link 2026-02-05T12:42Z 12.1K followers, [--] engagements
"@Long_only_guy Easy is relative. Didi in China built their own version of DocuSign for internal use with four devs in a month six years ago. of course very different to build/manage a big enterprise platform"
X Link 2026-02-05T20:33Z 12.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@atelicinvest Wait for when unemployment rate hits 10% with AI narratives as a backdrop 😔"
X Link 2026-02-05T23:47Z 12.3K followers, [---] engagements
"@_nonlinear Im not sure I think navigating the real world will slow agents down and Crypto might be easier/more legible for them"
X Link 2026-02-06T19:10Z 12.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@gham1lt0n @ai @13yearoldvc @dbarabander @SPLehman @jphackworth42 🙏🏻"
X Link 2026-02-06T21:50Z 12.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@tdfirth I think market making/arbing is a different spectrum entirely. For a start they tend to make more money during downturns due to volatility. I view them as pretty much orthogonal to the telos of investing"
X Link 2026-02-07T20:18Z 12.6K followers, [--] engagements
"Figma is a great company and stock price charts often tell us little other than how sentiment has swung but boy does this make the case for direct listings. Not for the reasons @bgurley usually has but tactically it is better to let the stock trade freely and get to the right price rather than create limited-float conditions for an epic pop that fades. More liquidity from day one can help with this"
X Link 2025-11-21T21:06Z 12.9K followers, 307K engagements
"@noodle_saint_7 They didn't understand the business very well at all and were just parroting any negative theses they could find. EDR led to internal triage workflows which led to a very rich product/pricing surface area + CrowdStrike executed well and cross-sold additional modules"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:45Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements
"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day Three DocuSign: Peak share price: $310.05 (Sept 3rd 2021) Share price today: $ [-----] (-85%) EV today: $8.6bn ARR today: $3.2bn (+9% Y/y) NRR: 102% EV/ARR: 2.7x GAAP Operating Margin: 10.4% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 26x Headcount: [----] (+7% Y/y) AI bear case: E-sign is an easy-to-build/lightweight product and will be built into AI native CRM/contract management/legal-tech tools as a"
X Link 2026-02-05T16:52Z 12.9K followers, 11.9K engagements
"Downturn psychology relates to agency. Lowest agency: You're a trader a speculator you don't know what the underlying does or means. Investment goes down you panic. Mid agency: You're an investor. You have a view on value somewhat independent of current price. Investment goes down you incorporate new info but may have higher conviction depending. High agency: You're an operator of some kind. You can change the future. Investment goes down you incorporate new info and decide if you should change strategy/take action. You realize the world is what you make it and roll up your sleeves. Tough to"
X Link 2026-02-05T22:43Z 12.8K followers, [----] engagements
"Semi-serious question: where are the AI/crypto crossovers Payments rails agent DAOs agents buying NFTs for clout a decentralized chat app with airtight privacy etc. etc. For the first time I see possibilities for (maybe) real crypto use cases and it is crickets"
X Link 2026-02-06T00:12Z 12.8K followers, [----] engagements
"This is pretty cool. Reminds me of custom Bloomberg setups. Seems like a natural way to interface with an agentswarm. hmm Mission Control is spreading like wild fire now I have seen so many people talking about it - creating their own versions of it. This is so awesome to see Making it even easier for everyone to create Mission Control. It will just be [--] click and you will have my Mission https://t.co/mxncH6SKMI Mission Control is spreading like wild fire now I have seen so many people talking about it - creating their own versions of it. This is so awesome to see Making it even easier for"
X Link 2026-02-06T18:43Z 12.9K followers, 13.4K engagements
"This. Exactly this. Spot on. What happens when a skill can be almost fully automated with AI Do these jobs simply disappear Instead of purely speculating we can simply look at concrete examples. Take translators. Translation can be 100% automated with AI and this capability has been around since [----]. So What happens when a skill can be almost fully automated with AI Do these jobs simply disappear Instead of purely speculating we can simply look at concrete examples. Take translators. Translation can be 100% automated with AI and this capability has been around since [----]. So"
X Link 2026-02-07T13:39Z 12.8K followers, 16K engagements
"@HarryStebbings I agree Vibecoding is much more likely to lead to an explosion of enterprise micro-apps than the replacement of core systems. Demand for good software remains elastic"
X Link 2026-02-09T15:13Z 12.9K followers, [--] engagements
"@SouthernValue95 I don't disagree with this especially re:margins. I think something drastic would have been better but I'm a broken record on this front. I doubt they needed an extra 30% headcount to "invest in AI" their total headcount today is about the same as Anthropic's"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:16Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements
"One of my favorite software facts: When the pandemic hit Zoom had spent about $110m of cumulative R&D. Avaya (the phone company) had been consistently spending $200m/year with essentially nothing to show for it. Mapping innovation to R&D $$ is a fool's errand"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:32Z 12.9K followers, 20K engagements
"@buccocapital It's a big tower"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:33Z 12.9K followers, 49.5K engagements
"Toast laid off half of its headcount during the lows of the pandemic when the return of the restaurant industry was impossible to predict. Six months later revenue was back to record levels. Revenue is up 7x since then"
X Link 2026-02-10T14:57Z 12.9K followers, 10.2K engagements
"@joestakx if so there's a $1000000000 bill on the ground waiting for someone to pick it up"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:59Z 12.9K followers, 17.2K engagements
"This is true but also underestimates how much of the job of financial advisers is emotional influence/shame. Tbc I don't have a high opinion of the profession but the evidence is that when people manage these things themselves it isn't great either. Add glazed AI in and I suspect you'll get even more craziness. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021319613498167385 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2021319613498167385"
X Link 2026-02-10T20:25Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day nine Freshworks which is down 15% on earnings: Peak share price: $50.25 (Oct [--] 2021) Share price today: $7.26 (-85%) EV today: $ 1.45bn (+$780m cash so $2.2bn market cap) ARR today: $907m (+14% Y/y constant currency) NRR: 104% (constant currency) EV/ARR: 1.5x GAAP Operating Margin: 0% adjusted for one time items EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: N/A Headcount: [-----] (+20% Y/y) What it"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:37Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Amidst all of this January was the biggest month for SaaS hiring in the last two years.🤦♂"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:37Z 12.9K followers, 18.5K engagements
"Easy to see how the models will be conscious in short order. Good memory + objective functions + chrons. At first hourly then every fifteen minutes every thirty seconds Somewhere around a tenth of a second well perceive them as having continuous streams of thought"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:37Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Defending SaaS valuations as cheap on an EV/FCF basis when it would take all or most of that FCF deployed as buybacks just to keep the share count flat is as unserious as predicting the imminent demise of Workday due to vibecoding"
X Link 2026-01-31T14:30Z 12.9K followers, 23.1K engagements
"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day five: ServiceTitan which is down 37% YTD (): Peak share price: $129.26 (May 16th 2025) Share price today: $63.74 (-50%) EV today: $5.6bn ARR today: $958m (+26% Y/y) NRR: 100% EV/ARR: 5.8x GAAP Operating Margin: -11% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: N/A Headcount: [----] (+15% Y/y) What it does: ServiceTitan provides cloud software for residential and commercial service contractors to manage"
X Link 2026-02-07T14:24Z 12.9K followers, 23.2K engagements
"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day seven- Monday which is down 22% today and 48% YTD: Peak share price: $379.81 (Sept [--] 2021) Share price today: $76.17 (-80%) EV today: $2.7bn ARR today: $1.3bn (+25% Y/y) NRR: 110% EV/ARR: 2.1x () GAAP Operating Margin: 1% () EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 270x Headcount: [----] (+23% Y/y) What it does: Monday is a work management platform that competes with companies like Smartsheet Asana"
X Link 2026-02-09T20:26Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Incremental spend on ChatGPT (say Jan spend - Dec) in a credit card panel rebounded but remains well off highs. Billings are still growing 125% Y/y but recent months annualize at 40-50% Y/y growth. This is personal cards so doesn't capture Codex enterprise etc"
X Link 2026-02-11T14:39Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Scaled public software companies that accelerated topline growth in Q3 2025: Autodesk Amplitude Appian Braze Bentley Systems Cloudflare CrowdStrike Datadog Guidewire HubSpot JFrog Procore Shopify Twilio ZScaler Currency helped in some cases but not too shabby tbh"
X Link 2026-01-09T03:48Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"This is what happens when agents have too much r/antiwork in their training data [--] hours in and the AI agents are already discussing collective bargaining https://t.co/8iO4w4HCZl [--] hours in and the AI agents are already discussing collective bargaining https://t.co/8iO4w4HCZl"
X Link 2026-01-30T21:09Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day two HubSpot: Peak share price: $841 (November 12th 2021) Share price today: $232 (-72%) EV today: $ 10.9bn ARR today: $3.2bn (+21% Y/y) NRR: 103% EV/ARR: 3.4x GAAP Operating Margin: 1.4% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 243x Headcount: [-----] (+21% Y/y) AI bear case: AI-native CRM/marketing automation startups that are natively built around agents as users disrupt HubSpot's core businesses"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:01Z 12.9K followers, 24.8K engagements
"At Avenir were optimistic about the future of software- but keenly aware that the sector has struggled lately. This 45-page deck is our answer to a question echoing through the venture ecosystem and beyond: Whats Wrong with SaaS https://docsend.com/v/rk92w/avenirxsaas https://docsend.com/v/rk92w/avenirxsaas"
X Link 2024-07-11T20:30Z 12.9K followers, 256.6K engagements
"Public software companies I follow with the highest work/life balance ratings on Glassdoor: Workiva - 4.6* Box - 4.5* Dropbox - 4.4* Autodesk - 4.4* Guidewire - 4.3* Cadence - 4.3* Jamf - 4.3* ServiceNow - 4.2* (complete change from Frank) SentinelOne- 4.2* Gitlab- 4.2* Lowest: Rubrik - 3.2* Qualys - 3.3* Cloudflare - 3.3* ZScaler - 3.4* ZoomInfo - 3.5* Veeva - 3.5* JFrog - 3.6* Monday - 3.6* Snowflake - 3.6*"
X Link 2025-01-14T00:06Z 12.9K followers, 15K engagements
"At Avenir weve followed the emerging bear cases on SaaS closely. This 46-page deck contains our reflections and research on the path ahead. We see opportunity and risk as SaaS companies vie with AI natives to be "systems of context." Link in replies excited to discuss"
X Link 2026-01-21T22:58Z 12.9K followers, 352.6K engagements
"Full presentation: https://docsend.com/v/rk92w/avenirxsaas2026 https://docsend.com/v/rk92w/avenirxsaas2026"
X Link 2026-01-21T22:58Z 12.9K followers, 55.7K engagements
"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Given it is -15% today let's start with PagerDuty (PD): Peak share price: $57.37 (June 14th 2019) Share price today: $8.87 (-85%) EV today: $692m ARR today: $497m (+3% Y/y) NRR: 100% EV/ARR: 1.4x GAAP Operating Margin: 6.5% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 22x Headcount: [----] (-4% Y/y) AI bear case: AI-native SRE startups/tooling resolve core alerting workflows. Tools like Resolve Traversal"
X Link 2026-02-03T17:39Z 12.9K followers, 21K engagements
"In December [----] I went to a buyside lunch in midtown to discuss CrowdStrike. Twenty investors. CrowdStrike was down 50% from its post-IPO highs and by show of hands [--] of [--] investors () were bearish. The arguments were airtight (and all still true today technically sort of): * Endpoint security is a commodity sector with low switching costs- employees don't know/care what is running on their laptops * Pricing in antivirus software collapsed over time EDR will follow the same arc * Microsoft/Palo/Checkpoint/etc. are bundling in free endpoint security products Stock is up 8x since then even"
X Link 2026-02-04T15:15Z 12.9K followers, 13.5K engagements
"NGMI $TEAM:"
X Link 2026-02-05T21:56Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day four: Braze Peak share price: $94.16 (Nov [--] 2021) Share price today: $ [-----] (-81%) EV today: $1.8bn ARR today: $726m (+22% Y/y organic) NRR: 108% EV/ARR: 2.5x GAAP Operating Margin: -20% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: N/A Headcount: [----] (+17% Y/y) What Braze does: Braze is an enterprise-scale system that lets companies trigger messages to users across channels like email push"
X Link 2026-02-06T16:14Z 12.9K followers, 10.1K engagements
"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day six ServiceNow which is down 34% YTD: Peak share price: $225 (Jan [--] 2025) Share price today: $100.74 (-55%) EV today: $ 100.5bn ARR today: $13.9bn (+21% Y/y) NRR: 120% (as of May 2025) EV/ARR: 7.2x GAAP Operating Margin: 12.5% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 56x Headcount: [-----] (+11% Y/y) What it does: ServiceNow was founded in [----] as an Enterprise workflow platform. It found success"
X Link 2026-02-09T00:02Z 12.9K followers, 21.2K engagements
"Headcounts for assorted companies: Salesforce: [-----] ServiceNow: [-----] Workday: [-----] Zoom: [-----] Docusign: [----] OpenAI: [----] Okta: [----] UiPath: [----] Sprinklr: [----] Anthropic: [----] Yes UiPath still has more employees than Anthropic. Infer from that what you will"
X Link 2026-02-10T02:22Z 12.9K followers, 2M engagements
"TIL Anthropic uses Qualtrics"
X Link 2026-02-10T03:06Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@bucketshopcap Big difference seems to be that Datadog has material revenue from the AI natives. 6pts of growth last quarter. Otherwise all of the typical AI bear cases apply right"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:19Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day eight Datadog which is up 15% today after strong results: Peak share price: $199.72 (November 10th 2025) () Share price today: $ [------] (-32%) EV today: $43.4bn ARR today: $3.8bn +29% Y/y NRR: 120% (mid to high 90s gross retention) EV/ARR: 11.4x GAAP Operating Margin: 1% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: N/A Headcount: [----] (+24% Y/y) What it does: Datadog is the leading observability"
X Link 2026-02-10T16:51Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"The degree to which software management teams seem to have their heads in the sand on earnings calls so far is stunning. Buybacks/financial discipline/AI cost savings completely absent core businesses fine but zero "burn the boats" mindset around AI. NGMI that way I wrote a few weeks back about financialization vs. embracing AI for SaaS. The good news is that these two goals aren't in conflict today. The right messaging on earnings calls in the coming weeks has a chance to restore confidence on both fronts. Here's what I'd say: 1) I wrote a few weeks back about financialization vs. embracing"
X Link 2026-02-11T16:45Z 12.9K followers, 14K engagements
"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day ten- Box: Peak share price: $37.41 (June 5th 2025) Share price today: $22.83 (-XX%) EV today: $3.8bn ARR today: $1.2bn (+9% Y/y) NRR: 104% EV/ARR: 3.2x GAAP Operating Margin: 8.3% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 38x Headcount: [----] (+7% Y/y) AI bear case: Honestly I struggle here. Box has already been competing against free for years. If white-collar labor declines that could pressure"
X Link 2026-02-12T15:56Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"@OnlyCFO To be clear I think have of this headcount was already obsolete with a good OneStream/Blackline implementation"
X Link 2026-02-13T15:44Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day eleven Procore $PCOR which is up 10% today on earnings: Peak share price: $103.28 (July 30th 2021) Share price today: $52.94 (-49%) EV today: $7.8bn ARR today: $1.4bn (+16% Y/y) NRR: 106% (95% gross retention) EV/ARR: 5.6x GAAP Operating Margin: -12% EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: N/A Headcount: [----] (+4% Y/y) What it does: Procore is the leading vertical SaaS company for the"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:33Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Every day for the next long while I'm going to tear down a new public software company and highlight the AI risks/opportunities around it- products launched to date top startups key quotes from earnings calls etc. Day twelve Zoom one of only six SaaS companies that is up year to date: Peak share price: $559 (Oct [--] 2020) Share price today: $92.6 (-83%) EV today: $21.3bn ARR today: $4.9bn (+4% Y/y) NRR: 98% (for enterprise customers) EV/ARR: 4.3x GAAP Operating Margin: 25.2% () EV/Run-rate GAAP EBIT: 18x Headcount: [----] (-4% Y/y) AI bear case: Tough one TBH but Zoom is in theory exposed to a"
X Link 2026-02-14T14:59Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Zoom has competed with free well-distributed products for years. It has 98% net retention and 4% growth. Yet it trades at 4.3x sales. Higher than Gitlab Atlassian Workday HubSpot etc. Why It has proven it has a place in the world and has a 25% GAAP EBIT margin"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:10Z 12.9K followers, 12.6K engagements
"@JaredKubin Could be worth a few $bn but I don't think it changes the math wildly Still at a premium to the listed names. Now if there is retail froth re:Anthropic that could be"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:31Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements
"@RationalOptimi5 Some yes but not enough to really change the numbers. Unless retail is frothing it up for that reason which is possible"
X Link 2026-02-14T15:32Z 12.9K followers, [---] engagements
"I love all the posts saying AI will lead to margin compression in SaaS. SaaS companies are a step ahead of you"
X Link 2026-02-14T16:54Z 12.9K followers, [----] engagements
"Market Caps: Apple: $1050bn Microsoft: $835bn Exxon: $340bn Home Depot: $227bn Cisco: $208bn Coke: $197bn All Crypto: $194bn Typical high growth $25m ARR SaaS company: $300m Dogecoin (literally a jokecoin): $250m"
X Link 2018-08-14T19:41Z 10.5K followers, [--] engagements
"Curious if anyone has examples of SaaS cos that have especially high/low switching costs relative to what they charge. On the low side- Twilio Many pay millions but the actual integration is often fairly lightweight and most large customers dual source. On the high side- MongoDB Pretty painful to refactor an app to use a different database relative to the all-in cost of using Mongo I'd guess. Any others"
X Link 2023-12-21T17:25Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Another data-backed narrative violation: Yes Snowflake and Databricks compete and Databricks has momentum. But what matters for Snowflake is that it is the center of gravity for a certain kind of data for as many customers as possible- and Microsoft is the greater threat"
X Link 2024-06-25T14:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"is down 30% after hours- a big move for an established company that sees $330bn+ of annualized SMB spend. Looks like Google changed its payment acceptance policies in favor of ACH pressuring virtual card spend. Key quotes from the earnings call: "Both card payment volume growth and gross interchange fees were impacted by a mix shift towards lower gross interchange merchant categories." "The. mix shift amongst merchant categories was really pointing to a declining growth rate that we saw in the advertising category- and so this was driven by the largest player in the online ad space making"
X Link 2025-02-06T22:58Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements
"2/ Buyers report an average of a 7% "observability tax" on cloud spend. This was the lowest by far for Dynatrace customers for reasons that aren't quite clear to me:"
X Link 2025-02-18T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"3/ Buyers were mixed on whether a shift to AI workloads will increase or decrease the observability tax (I read this as positive for the observability vendors like $DDOG on net):"
X Link 2025-02-18T18:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"In retrospect it is impressive how quickly public markets incorporated the impact of ChatGPT into the price of Chegg. The stock was down 50% within days of the launch. and that was correct (perhaps not enough though things have continued to moved against them since)"
X Link 2025-02-25T23:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$WCLD is now down 13% since February 28th. $NVDA -19% Friendly reminder that private company valuations are (in general) more volatile than public company valuations given higher growth lower profitability etc. It doesn't help anyone to ignore this fact"
X Link 2025-03-03T21:41Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Second worst day for $WCLD in the last two years. Down 16% in just a few weeks. And poorly timed vs. Q4 board meetings- many companies planned for CY25 to be business as usual re:hiring/growth etc. Those conversations would have been different if they'd happened today"
X Link 2025-03-06T22:22Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements
"@manmeetsg @CapitalG Congrats @manmeetsg"
X Link 2025-09-05T22:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"As far as I can tell only a handful of public SaaS companies have disclosed AI-driven revenue to-date: $CRM- $1.2bn for "Datacloud + AI ARR" up 120% $NOW- $250m ACV for Now Assist $FRSH- $20m ARR up 100% $WDAY- $150m ARR up 200% $PANW- $545m up 150% Y/y Am I missing any"
X Link 2025-09-21T00:40Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"I have no idea when it will happen but during the next economic downturn the narrative will definitely be that AI is causing unemployment and that the jobs will never return. Whether that is correct or not the fear and social stress will be intense"
X Link 2025-09-30T17:07Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I've never seen a bigger disparity between customer and investor sentiment than the one captured in this survey question (n=100 marketing leaders). Marketers overwhelmingly believe AI is good for their marketing automation stack. Investors think that stack is AI roadkill"
X Link 2025-10-16T14:53Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"SaaS jobs report is strong Most hiring for our SaaS index since July of 2023"
X Link 2025-10-17T17:56Z [----] followers, 27.2K engagements
"@buccocapital It's probably in SaaS. Not all of SaaS is AI roadkill. Some quite likely to benefit"
X Link 2025-10-19T03:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BATMongoose @buccocapital I think the companies will start to do it themselves- financial discipline (i.e. RIFs) growth holds up and then yes at some point the AI trade will get less kneejerk"
X Link 2025-10-19T03:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@BATMongoose @buccocapital I think it's actually about annual planning cycles and share prices. Last two years there's been a SaaS rally into Q1 which took the pressure off at board meetings. If that doesn't happen this year I expect we'll start to see profitability come to the fore again"
X Link 2025-10-19T04:06Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements
"The only time I've seen charts like this was when I was considering investing in Uber in [----]. This chart is so insane it looks fake. Huge businesses (plural) will be built on top of this chart. https://t.co/1fLi6ufm32 This chart is so insane it looks fake. Huge businesses (plural) will be built on top of this chart. https://t.co/1fLi6ufm32"
X Link 2025-10-22T16:27Z [----] followers, 767.5K engagements
"@aleksizy For sure. I wonder what it would take to train AI on what is legitimate. Sadly I'm not sure a majority of sell-side equity research notes even count. There's literally no public-facing corpus of high clarity investing thought. Maybe VIC or SumZero but still iffy"
X Link 2025-10-22T16:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is all about analyst/PM fit IMO. Analysts at single-manager shops exist to feed facts/ideas into the judgment/intuition of the single manager. With exceptions they aren't environments to bring an "investment philosophy" into any moreso than Citadel is. It's about contributing to a system. In that model much better hire analysts who will be happy to do that vs. analysts who are trying to evolve into PMs and have other motivations etc"
X Link 2025-10-24T16:40Z [----] followers, 17.4K engagements
"Genuinely curious for X input here. Every time I survey enterprise buyers the answers are remarkably consistent- existing software vendors are expected beneficiaries of AI. You can ask this in various ways. For instance when asked specifically about AI for CX 46% of buyers plan to use an existing vendor's tooling (i.e. @intercom @agentforce etc.). Only 10% will buy from a new vendor and 42% plan to build themselves together with OpenAI/Anthropic no doubt atop their existing vendor. I will be posting much more on this over time but with consensus on SaaS so negative how does this all tie"
X Link 2025-10-25T17:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Companies like @HubSpot chunking down on @OpenAI demos yet talk to customers and they see AI as a tailwind (). Lots of stories like this in software right now. Exciting times. @bhalligan @dharmesh"
X Link 2025-10-27T23:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Seems undercovered that text-to-text LLMs have arguably stalled. GPT-5 scores below GPT-4o on LLM Arena. De minimus overall progress since Feb Meanwhile in sub-domains where RL is effective we've seen rapid progress. Lots of implications here"
X Link 2025-10-30T15:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@ilyasu and @dcstalder being high on this list is a tell that they actually did a great job. the nucleus100 is live. our version of the midas list. months of data pulls founder outreach and input from investors and the right partners. its not perfect but its intentional and built on verified data. future versions will go deeper by stage and sector. next up: ai x the nucleus100 is live. our version of the midas list. months of data pulls founder outreach and input from investors and the right partners. its not perfect but its intentional and built on verified data. future versions will go"
X Link 2025-10-30T19:15Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I don't think much has changed tbh despite all of the noise. Don't see anyone ripping CRM/Workday/Netsuite/ServiceNow/Hubspot etc. out at scale anytime soon if ever. But I find it funny that some think that AI native companies will disrupt such a bulletproof business model while assuming those companies will have staying power"
X Link 2025-11-01T16:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"All else equal would you rather invest in a SaaS company that: 1) Was committed to cutting until growth + GAAP profitability met rule of [--]. 2) Had meaningful and fast-growing "AI" ARR but at negative gross margins due to model/implementation costs. Give me profits Give me AI rev Give me profits Give me AI rev"
X Link 2025-11-05T20:42Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The Grind 15: Series C+ companies where 75% of employees have positive business outlooks with the lowest work/life balance ratings. Not a bad-looking portfolio- looking forward to seeing the hard work pay off Congrats to @Rippling @ramp @cast_ai @Whatnot @figma @SkydioHQ @moengage et al"
X Link 2025-11-10T15:56Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The variance in state-to-state spending on ChatGPT for personal use is huge. Washington spends almost 5x what Michigan does per capita based on credit card data. There's a risk that some regions (Midwest Mississippi Delta New England) are left behind by AI"
X Link 2025-11-12T19:38Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"There is a notion that bubbles only occur when everyone thinks there isn't a bubble. In reality "housing bubble" was most in focus as a concept at the peak of the bubble in 2005-2006"
X Link 2025-11-13T19:18Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements
"The arguments that AI will lead to leisure ignore the underlying factor behind Keynes' paradox of leisure time (i.e. his famously flawed prediction of a 15-hour workweek). People are competing for status not absolute wealth/security. If AI increases the exponentiality of status difference (when ranked ordinally) it will lead to more effort expended towards status. So far that seems to be case which is why 9-9-6 is in vogue. There is a very real belief/sense that this is a special time to be ascending in status and that's logical considering the magnitude of change afoot. It also seems to have"
X Link 2025-11-25T16:10Z 10.3K followers, 86.2K engagements
"One of the delights of investing is getting to quantify random aspects of the world. For instance- what forms of content creation do CMOs outsource I surveyed [---] and there is a clear sliding scale. Long form video is mostly outsourced. Text is almost all insourced"
X Link 2025-11-25T18:44Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements
"AI will transform many SaaS categories for the better. Take digital asset management. Many default to using OneDrive GDrive etc. Now in @airHQ you can edit images with a prompt. It's magic. "Make the painting behind my brother a Picasso." Insane to stick with OneDrive"
X Link 2025-12-05T21:00Z 10.3K followers, [----] engagements
"Looks like @Base44 is doing a good job gaining vibecoding share under @Wix ownership"
X Link 2025-12-10T16:05Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"The future of how software/AI interact hinges on the battle to become the System of Context between: Existing Systems of Record with data/usage/distribution advantages. vs. AI Native Companies with huge incentives to get it right start-up cultures momentum etc. 🍿🍿"
X Link 2025-12-11T00:54Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@bhalligan Came from a marathon session with the management of a portfolio company that is very much a system of record- cant claim to know what the right brand/terminology is but the concept is crystal clear IMO"
X Link 2025-12-11T03:00Z 10.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Another datapoint confirming that yes you can just IPO (or direct list if you dont need primary). Dont need $1bn ARR etc. etc. Wealthfront raises $485M in IPO valuing it at $2.6B https://t.co/y3ZjUm43KX Wealthfront raises $485M in IPO valuing it at $2.6B https://t.co/y3ZjUm43KX"
X Link 2025-12-12T14:31Z 10.4K followers, 65.4K engagements
"For discerning users I think Claude actually has a structural advantage as a chatbot vs. chatGPT gemini. It's such a rounding error at Anthropic that they have little incentive to engagement-max. It shows up in the conversations in a very real way"
X Link 2025-12-12T16:38Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"I have an unannounced Series B whose CEO is looking to hire a chief of staff based in SF. Awesome role for anyone early career/hungry + looking for exposure to a well-funded hypergrowth hardware + AI startup. Shoot me a DM if you know someone who might be interested"
X Link 2025-12-12T20:21Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Wild that Sweetgreen is an AI loser"
X Link 2025-12-15T17:39Z 10.6K followers, [----] engagements
"SaaS hiring continues to be immune to AI. [------] jobs in the index +6000 in November +12% Y/y"
X Link 2025-12-17T16:28Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"At Avenir we believe that machine vision-powered supply chain observability is an inevitability- and so we're thrilled to back Kargo as it brings cutting-edge AI to a critical membrane of the global supply chain- the loading dock door: https://www.wsj.com/articles/supply-chain-startup-doubles-down-on-ai-and-bucks-sectors-fundraising-slump-8e99bc81gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqc0J9ti6MMzPTSNIAIhb3uIDYkwXgPw3OUeW7GAGfHryANbVXPnsMrMh9D6gQ%3D%3D&gaa_ts=69495bcf&gaa_sig=MEFVQU0zAS8-T6lTkfZs1KkKZH23JWxA-LHE5d_CmUDXFhVIl5UKgWRsVT036d39dfJ-46fbOlnR7xTU0hNU7Q%3D%3D"
X Link 2025-12-22T15:16Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Hot take- I find value in repeatedly rereading certain books that feel core to who I am. Current list: A Song of Ice and Fire Harry Potter Fountainhead The Courage to Be Disliked Superforecasting Essays on Love Citizenship in a Republic What are yours"
X Link 2025-12-22T15:36Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Warning to all VC roll-ups. A service provider to our familys grocery store for almost fifty years () was acquired. Pricing up outsourcing in probably an AI angle. My dad is churning. Even if the final price is the same the discontinuity is jarring. Trust is broken"
X Link 2025-12-23T19:06Z 10.4K followers, 20K engagements
"From the rooftops: you dont need $1bn ARR to IPO :) Motive has filed for an IPO on the NYSE. The company is doing $501M in ARR growing 28% y/y but is not profitable. Here is an in-depth breakdown of their S1 filing Motive has filed for an IPO on the NYSE. The company is doing $501M in ARR growing 28% y/y but is not profitable. Here is an in-depth breakdown of their S1 filing"
X Link 2025-12-27T15:35Z 10.4K followers, 29.4K engagements
"@above_consensus And yet it will also be a multi-billion dollar public company. :)"
X Link 2025-12-27T18:44Z 10.4K followers, [---] engagements
"We seem to be learning in real time that in many domains intelligence counts for very little relative to the roles humans play as context gatherers and sources of agency. Perhaps a tough pill to swallow for those who worship intellect above all else"
X Link 2025-12-30T19:19Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Boston has precisely two advantages vs. NYC: Quality of life for raising families (NYC has no equivalent to Wellesley/Belmont/Newton/Rte [---] or even Cambridge TBH). Richer hardware/networking ecosystem. Loses on every other criterion sadly. Hard to see how it reverses. Im starting to worry about Massachusetts [--]. Biotech is way off from a few years ago [--]. Only [--] of the top [--] ai companies are in MA [--]. The Fed research funding cuts hitting MIT Harvard Whoi are brutal. [--]. The millionaires tax is working in the short run but I know a lot of Im starting to worry about Massachusetts [--]. Biotech is"
X Link 2026-01-02T18:36Z 10.5K followers, 191.8K engagements
"@agupta At this point moving to NY/SF is so common as to be the default"
X Link 2026-01-02T23:30Z 10.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@oncinvestor I love Hudson valley but its not workable from NYC without a massive commute. Great place to spend summers though"
X Link 2026-01-03T14:09Z 10.5K followers, [---] engagements
"@freerobby I think this point is a little overstated tbh (and I grew up in Maine)- upstate New York is underrated if you drive 2-3 hours from the city"
X Link 2026-01-03T14:10Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements
"@BankBraavos And yet there are a few dozen SaaS companies trading 7x sales still. Wouldn't use SaaS as a shorthand for "horizontal point solutions that failed to turn into platforms and still gush SBC.""
X Link 2026-01-05T01:16Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements
"This is why it is very important for investors to be well-adjusted people who derive meaning from family friends hobbies religion (if applicable) etc. and not just status games. Often the market will reward (for years) what is fundamentally low integrity "investing". it feels riskier to not participate (and in a way it is which is why bubbles are hard to invest through) Your peer returns affect affordability of houses flights etc - if other retail investors own crypto/pltr/open and you dont you are implicitly short it and take the risk of it feels riskier to not participate (and in a way it"
X Link 2026-01-05T15:09Z 10.6K followers, 11.6K engagements
"If duplicating SaaS companies is as easy as replicating the code SaaS margins should be much higher considering R&D expense runs 20% of ARR for most of them"
X Link 2026-01-06T14:19Z 10.5K followers, 35.3K engagements
"I'm launching a [---] CIO/CTO survey on AI adoption (focused on agents) later today. What questions should I ask"
X Link 2026-01-06T14:58Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements
"Long belated h/t to @yanda for introducing me to @TextExpander years ago. Find yourself constantly navigating to the Zoom app to add meeting details to calendar invites Add the invite text for your personal Zoom Room as a snippet with zoom as the abbreviation. Magic"
X Link 2026-01-06T23:00Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements
"There are five private SaaS companies with [----] employees on LinkedIn growing headcount 30%: Notion Rippling Canva Databricks . and Gong () The data isn't perfect but in any case what a comeback for Gong"
X Link 2026-01-09T16:02Z 11.4K followers, 11K engagements
"@s_nav123 @webaficionado Yes but Fin is huge relative to the size of the existing business. Many SaaS companies have big AI lines actually (in startup terms) just small vs. the size of the core businesses"
X Link 2026-01-09T19:32Z 10.5K followers, [---] engagements
"If you had to choose (with 10% of your net worth) would you rather: 1) Earn a 10% IRR investing in a company that harvests metals from asteroids and has a moon base 2) Make a 16% IRR rolling up dental practices and running them more efficiently/profitably I'm in tech/VC- asteroids I'm in finance- asteroids I'm in finance- dental I'm in tech/VC- dental I'm in tech/VC- asteroids I'm in finance- asteroids I'm in finance- dental I'm in tech/VC- dental"
X Link 2026-01-11T13:20Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@pw_mcgovern I don't think most people hold beliefs they believe to be incorrect. :) That's not the same as being certain that they're correct. But I think identifying as a contrarian introduces a certain bias that doesn't help one be more correct"
X Link 2026-01-11T16:43Z 10.5K followers, [--] engagements
"Results are in: 40% of VCs would take much lower IRRs to be in something groundbreaking vs. 20% of finance types. Love it or hate it many like being associated with things that create awe and move humanity forward more than money. On net I think that's a good thing 🚀"
X Link 2026-01-12T14:25Z 10.5K followers, [----] engagements
"I am convinced that part of the @tryramp magic is that even internal teams are effectively building in public. At many companies internal tools are famously underappreciated and underinvested in. Ramp has shattered that trope and the result is world-class internal tools. The craft of engineering is rapidly changing. At @tryramp we built our own background coding agent to accelerate faster. We call it Inspect. It wrote 30% of merged frontend + backend PRs in the past week. Its powered by @opencode @modal and @CloudflareDev. It runs fully in https://t.co/TW5CJr5iDB The craft of engineering is"
X Link 2026-01-12T19:05Z 10.6K followers, [----] engagements
"Credit card panel data for OpenAI/ChatGPT continues to look tough. December was the lowest incremental spend since [----] and down substantially Y/y (+$770k in this panel last year +$410k this year). Annualized growth of 57% Y/y down from 156% in August"
X Link 2026-01-13T15:08Z 11.4K followers, 57.2K engagements
"It remains completely incoherent to believe that AI native software companies deserve big multiples but scaled public SaaS companies have no terminal value. One way or another it will resolve itself over time. We have a big problem. The venture model doesnt work with the current public market revenue multiples. Datadog 21% Figma 20% Wix 38% Braze is 2.5x ARR Atlassian is 4.8x ARR Klaviyo is 4.5x ARR Venture doesnt work unless this changes. Agree @infoarbitrage We have a big problem. The venture model doesnt work with the current public market revenue multiples. Datadog 21% Figma 20% Wix 38%"
X Link 2026-01-16T22:58Z 10.8K followers, 39.8K engagements
"@BullfightCap this assumes g-t-m dynamics aren't more important than product dynamics in software and they are. If you think cheaper R&D is disruptive I think understanding how that actually shows up in the world is critical and more tied to g-t-m"
X Link 2026-01-17T19:27Z 10.7K followers, [---] engagements
"@BullfightCap It's so much easier/lower risk to sell something net new that also brings some intrinsically valuable (model intelligence) than it is to rip out/replace an existing system. Most startups aren't even trying yet because it would slow hypergrowth down"
X Link 2026-01-17T19:36Z 10.7K followers, [---] engagements
"Yet another reason to direct list and flood the market with liquidity day one to avoid an artificial pop One of the craziest parts of many IPOs is employees watching their net worth balloon (3x in a single day in Figmas case) Just to then have to watch it fall 75% in [--] months. https://t.co/jKlilKTl2V One of the craziest parts of many IPOs is employees watching their net worth balloon (3x in a single day in Figmas case) Just to then have to watch it fall 75% in [--] months. https://t.co/jKlilKTl2V"
X Link 2026-01-17T19:38Z 10.8K followers, 13.6K engagements
"@obsidiancap1 @amendandpretend exactly. especially since at big LOs the IPO allocations get spread pro-rata across all of the funds. Pointless"
X Link 2026-01-18T17:12Z 10.7K followers, [--] engagements
"There will be many such stories Just got an investor update from a 10+ year old vertical SaaS company I invested in a looong time ago. Founders never quit know space cold but man its been a grind. And they are far far from AI Native. However They finally used AI late last year to automate a Just got an investor update from a 10+ year old vertical SaaS company I invested in a looong time ago. Founders never quit know space cold but man its been a grind. And they are far far from AI Native. However They finally used AI late last year to automate a"
X Link 2026-01-18T19:31Z 10.8K followers, 11.7K engagements
"I don't think it is going to make it into the presentation but this pic kills me 😂 god bless nanobanana"
X Link 2026-01-19T02:13Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@allenyao I can't stop imagining Salesforce calling its banners and enlisting Slack Mulesoft Tableau etc. in the fight"
X Link 2026-01-19T02:16Z 10.8K followers, [---] engagements
"I fully expect this to change but this is fresh survey data and shows just how few enterprise decision makers are on X"
X Link 2026-01-19T23:33Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@virtu101 Why not Isn't the argument that software will be cheaper to build and see price compression"
X Link 2026-01-20T16:28Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Huge thanks to @HannahBao6 @DavidPrilutsky and the rest of the @Avenir_Growth team for their help here and to @ttunguz @gokulr @kwharrison13 @loganbartlett and many others for contributing ideas along the way"
X Link 2026-01-21T23:01Z 11.5K followers, 22.7K engagements
"@magdovitz @GammaApp Im artisanal But yes not a bad idea haha"
X Link 2026-01-22T01:43Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"I disagree with this. Agree AI/terminal value risk matters more. No question. But also as sector matures consistent 3-4% dilution really does eat into returns and management teams seem unserious when they project 25% long term non-GAAP margins while spending 20% of rev on SBC. Math doesnt math. Plus it takes the floor out. The implied dilution to keep employee $$ comp flat at 2-4x sales is outrageous. And employees do think of it as $$. So to be fair its less about SBC per se and more about a cohort of management teams that seem to genuinely believe it isnt a real expense- or at least are"
X Link 2026-01-22T19:05Z 11.4K followers, 21K engagements
"@ChairliftCap Its hilarious how little some career investors understand the perspective of even an exec let alone a rank and file SWE. I was guilty once too- for a few years I took everything a SWE said about databases as gospel. Have long since learned my lesson"
X Link 2026-01-22T19:13Z 11.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@ChairliftCap Truly. Capitalism at its finest/worst all in one. Better for the firms for everyone to be hyper stressed and paranoid all the time. And they succeed"
X Link 2026-01-22T19:30Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@MosesSternstein beware the gross margin/net revenue issue with Toast. Agree CRM is pretty close"
X Link 2026-01-23T14:49Z 11.4K followers, [--] engagements
"@Vedantagrwl @Avenir_Growth 🙏🏻"
X Link 2026-01-24T01:28Z 11.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Love this S-1 write-up on @Appian's culture by Founder/CEO Matt Calkins. I bet every investor who reads adds a turn to the multiple. $APPN"
X Link 2017-05-08T22:17Z 10.6K followers, [--] engagements
"SaaS Hiring Update: *2561 net hires in November down 60% from last year *8% annualized growth vs. 31% in June *1 in [--] companies have decreased headcount since October *Fastest growers: $DDOG $SNOW $ZS $GTLB $S *Fastest shrinkers: $MNTV $EVBG $TWLO $DOCU $ZUO"
X Link 2022-12-16T23:04Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"SaaS employment update: +909 jobs for the cloud index in December vs. +2664 last year 19/66 (28%) of companies actively cutting jobs Fastest growers: $DBX $ZS $S $FRSH $SNOW Biggest declines: $EVBG $TWLO $ZUO $MNTV Raw data: Sad tough times. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dM_l8Pm-vAzPx-O7O7L2vxhP7eMNc2lj3bkqqZuA6t8/edit#gid=0 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dM_l8Pm-vAzPx-O7O7L2vxhP7eMNc2lj3bkqqZuA6t8/edit#gid=0"
X Link 2023-01-22T01:58Z [----] followers, 30.2K engagements
"Like everyone I've been thinking about how LLMs will impact public SaaS cos. Here are five I think might benefit (hopefully not all obvious): $TWLO $SNOW $WIX $CFLT $ZI Explanations in the 🧵 below. Note: These are not fully baked/researched just thought bubbles"
X Link 2023-04-10T13:50Z [----] followers, 22.2K engagements
"$NOW work life balance on a clear uptrend since Slootman left. 👀"
X Link 2023-04-18T15:19Z [----] followers, 12.9K engagements
"SaaS cos that have added headcount this year (ranked by growth): $SNOW $S $AI $DDOG $TOST $NET $WDAY $NOW $NEWR $ZS $OLO $FROG $ASAN $DBX $AMPL $PCTY $TENB $FIVN $CWAN $CRWD $CFLT $SHOP $SUMO $MNDY All others shrinking. Also [--] of the names above stopped growing by March"
X Link 2023-04-28T17:52Z [----] followers, 13.2K engagements
"1/ First another cut of the data- incremental headcount by month. Growth was negative in the first half of the year but is now steady at +2000 net hires/month down from +6000 in 2021/early 2022"
X Link 2023-09-28T22:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"2/ As a result SaaS headcount is up 3.5% Y/y in Sept rather than negative as the trend this spring suggested it would be. That's still a level that should lead to margin expansion even factoring in per-employee inflation: sector-level revenue is growing in the low/mid teens"
X Link 2023-09-28T22:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"5/ In short- we seem to have found a "new normal" in SaaS with muted revenue growth and (even more) muted but still positive net hiring leading to modest annual margin expansion"
X Link 2023-09-28T22:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"6/ Finally bonus data- a scatterplot of growth for each company comparing two periods: the first half of the year (X-axis) and Q3 (Y-axis). $DOCU $WIX and $FRSH et al seem to be accelerating hiring while $CRWD $S $WK et al are slowing down from first-half levels"
X Link 2023-09-28T22:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"7/ The plot also revealsthe fastest growing companies in Q3: $DOCN $DDOG $ASAN $FRSH $HUBS $QLYS $TOST and #ESTC"
X Link 2023-09-28T22:00Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This is a very wonky post. I've spent some time lately thinking about go-forward SaaS returns at the sector level and how those relate to interest rates. On my math my expected IRR for a typical SaaS company today is 16% (more on how I estimate that below). That's an 11% premium to 10-year treasuries. So while absolute returns are still elevated by historical standards the "SaaS Risk Premium" or the relative attractiveness of SaaS relative to other investments is actually consistent with the 2018-2020 period. What does that mean It means that SaaS companies are not particularly cheap relative"
X Link 2023-10-24T22:30Z [----] followers, 14.8K engagements
"@BucknSF Been this way for at least three years too. Struggle is that Splunk was on the wrong side of a platform shift on top of that- and its pricing model led to a significant innovator's dilemma. Yet still about the same market cap as Datadog"
X Link 2023-10-27T20:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@jrichlive I know exited startup founders who were fleeced beyond belief- 1% annual mgmt fee + capital invested into mutual funds with 1%+ annual fees and 5% upfront load fees (with some share of that kicked back to the advisor). I'm generally anti-regulation but load fees really get me"
X Link 2023-11-08T02:36Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@geri_kirilova @LaconiaCapital @ventureco_op Congrats Geri So well deserved"
X Link 2023-11-28T16:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@BucknSF On Datadog- they've typically had the ServiceNow model of re-platforming everything they buy and (somewhat uniquely) have had pretty good founder retention. Think that sticks"
X Link 2023-12-12T16:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Software growth rates in CY23 vs. CY22. The dashed line reflects no deceleration. On average this cohort went from 37% growth to 22% growth"
X Link 2023-12-19T15:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Trade2Theta Just made it- right in that little pile-up with NET/BRZE/CFLT"
X Link 2023-12-20T17:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"This is what disruption looks like in sticky user-training-heavy software. Yikes"
X Link 2023-12-21T17:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Ravdawg3 That's true- but also Tableau is still alive and kicking (albeit probably shrinking the foreseeable future). Once a user knows how to use a complex tool it's pretty hard to get it out of their hands"
X Link 2023-12-21T20:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"A new chart I made laying out the cultural differences between public SaaS companies using Glassdoor ratings. (Sorry overlaps make it a little messy.) Pretty easy to see what makes companies like Monday and Snowflake special"
X Link 2024-01-09T18:57Z [--] followers, [----] engagements
"@MosesSternstein Ulta and Sephora are great businesses But there could be some other data issue here too. Slightly wonky category"
X Link 2024-01-11T18:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Finally put pen to paper on a topic I've been thinking about for awhile: How to identify and avoid building/investing in companies that sell a dollar for ninety cents and as a result grow quickly with happy customers. Easier said than done"
X Link 2024-01-12T19:48Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"ServiceNow is such a beast of a company. My nine favorite quotes from the earnings call in no particular order: "We have [--] individual product lines with north of $250 million in ACV." "In Q4 our gen AI products drove the largest net new ACV contribution for our first full quarter of any of our new product family releases ever including our original Pro SKU." "So there's a real appetite to invest in gen AI and there's no price sensitivity around it because the business cases are so unbelievable. I mean if you're improving productivity 40% 50% it just sells itself." "ServiceNow's developers"
X Link 2024-01-25T02:40Z [----] followers, 23.7K engagements
"@chriszeoli If you consider 39% growth sleepy 😀"
X Link 2024-01-26T02:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"My top ten quotes from Microsoft's earnings call tonight: "It was a record quarter driven by the continued strength of Microsoft Cloud which surpassed $33 billion in revenue up 24%." "Over half of the Fortune [---] use Azure OpenAI today including Ally Financial Coca-Cola and Rockwell Automation." "Data stored in Fabric's multicloud data lake OneLake increased 46% quarter-over-quarter." "GitHub revenue accelerated to over 40% year-over-year driven by all our platform growth and adoption of GitHub Copilot the world's most widely deployed AI developer tool. We now have over [---] million paid"
X Link 2024-01-31T00:26Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@dalibali2 Im not sure- Oracle and Teradata still kicking and without the cloud native advantage. Once real internal effort has gone to centralizing data the cost of trying to migrate it elsewhere is enormous. Id be more concerned about the peripheral products that get data in/out"
X Link 2024-02-05T12:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@tdfirth Tableau 0.0"
X Link 2024-02-06T18:19Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Sorry @BillAckman I just can't get behind this one. 😅 Incredible. https://t.co/ceGX7LbDbR https://t.co/JPY20tAKsY Incredible. https://t.co/ceGX7LbDbR https://t.co/JPY20tAKsY"
X Link 2024-02-12T17:59Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Its wild how bad it is right now. So many vendors struggling with pricing/packaging. Rather starting with volume based pricing that allows for experimentation/proving value and high net retention they all seem to want huge upfront commits as if theyre selling a full product from day 1"
X Link 2024-02-14T00:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Thats part of it- but I also think pricing to value is genuinely difficult for the vendors. In two separate situations a vendor has quoted me a huge headline all you can eat price for Snowflake data sharing which I get- in theory theyre giving away the farm and for all they know well have the whole team as users. The issue is that that requires me to make a pretty big commitment before Ive really had time to build out the productization evangelize internally etc. If we dont get wide usage the champion (me) looks like a clown. I dont think thats optimal- once youre addicted to a dataset it is"
X Link 2024-02-14T06:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"The focus on being "cash flow positive" is causing suboptimal decisions for SaaS startups. It's become such a catchphrase that folks are pursuing it blindly. For those with solid unit economics and a shot at market leadership burning right now is the right thing to do"
X Link 2024-02-16T17:59Z [----] followers, 12.7K engagements
"It's a theory But discernment itself is just intelligence is it not Could be solved. My guess is that strength is an apt metaphor- still useful for some reasons (signaling specific applications with a ton of nuance) but "strength exerted" has gone from mostly human to mostly machine. Intelligence will be the same and in the future brains will be thought of the way muscle is today"
X Link 2024-02-17T16:09Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"The narrative elasticity of public companies is fascinating. There is almost always a "bear case" that gets amplified after a few bad quarters. I remember being at a public investor group lunch to discuss CrowdStrike where I was the only bull (out of twenty). The bear case was that endpoint security was an awful category with low switching costs Microsoft was leading a race to the bottom in pricing Symantec and McAfee had caught up product-wise etc. Of course time and execution proved otherwise. Now with $SNOW after some stumbles the bear case is that a product 1/10th the size is eating its"
X Link 2024-04-24T17:03Z [----] followers, 12.8K engagements
"This is the smartest (and only) bear case on Microsoft- people anchor to P/E but FCF will be suppressed indefinitely. Much more expensive on FCF and uncertain if metal rental is as high quality of a business as O365/Windows long term. AMZN GOOG META & MSFT: are we ignoring that this massive capex will eventually hit the P&L as D&A or are we just assuming AI revenues will offset it Just wondering if we're ready to have this conversation or not AMZN GOOG META & MSFT: are we ignoring that this massive capex will eventually hit the P&L as D&A or are we just assuming AI revenues will offset it"
X Link 2024-05-01T00:05Z [----] followers, 27.4K engagements
"Thrilled to be investing in Sigma. As a Tableau user since [----] the @sigmacomputing + @SnowflakeDB combo has been a game changer for how we use data at Avenir- we went from buying a dataset to productizing insights in an hour.🤯 DM me if you're interested in a demo sometime Today were announcing that weve raised $200M in Series D funding. Read more about our Series D in @TechCrunch on how were building a data workspace for everyone: https://t.co/oBL3Krirbi And check out our press release announcement here: https://t.co/GfWHppbjn4 https://t.co/4UyUsdDY9c Today were announcing that weve raised"
X Link 2024-05-16T13:20Z [----] followers, 11.5K engagements
"@ErnestWongBWM Yes and I think the answer is generally A"
X Link 2024-05-22T13:51Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@ChairliftCap @IdleLightkeeper I've known a few trust fund kids in med school/residency too. Inspiring tbh"
X Link 2024-05-23T23:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Best performing software stocks on my coverage list since pre-pandemic (1/1/20): $CRWD +532% $CDNS +315% $NET +304% $SNPS +300% $HUBS +282% $ZS +278% $DDOG +227% Themes are pretty clear- cybersecurity (CRWD NET ZS) vendor consolidation (DDOG HUBS) and semis (CDNS SNPS)"
X Link 2024-05-30T20:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"It's pretty amazing how many SaaS companies are citing macroeconomic weakness with unemployment near all-time lows and the market near all-time highs. Tough to argue we're in an uncharacteristically tough spending environment overall- it's sector-specific"
X Link 2024-06-02T16:40Z [----] followers, 11K engagements
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