#  @JamieHeard5 Jamie Heard
Jamie Heard posts on X about gas, canada, oil, growth the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
### Engagements: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::2244564715/interactions)

- [--] Week [-----] +5.20%
- [--] Month [------] +158%
- [--] Months [-------] -6%
- [--] Year [-------] -48%
### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::2244564715/posts_active)

- [--] Months [--] -40%
- [--] Year [--] -41%
### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::2244564715/followers)

- [--] Week [------] +0.15%
- [--] Month [------] +1.60%
- [--] Months [------] +9.50%
- [--] Year [------] +17%
### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::2244564715/influencer_rank)

### Social Influence
**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance) 24% [countries](/list/countries) 21% [stocks](/list/stocks) 10% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) 5% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) 3% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) 3% [celebrities](/list/celebrities) 2% [social networks](/list/social-networks) 2% [currencies](/list/currencies) 1%
**Social topic influence**
[gas](/topic/gas) #1855, [canada](/topic/canada) 13%, [oil](/topic/oil) 10%, [growth](/topic/growth) 9%, [we are](/topic/we-are) 7%, [investment](/topic/investment) 7%, [strong](/topic/strong) 5%, [business](/topic/business) 5%, [end of](/topic/end-of) 4%, [ai](/topic/ai) 4%
**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@bubleqe](/creator/undefined) [@andrew_leach](/creator/undefined) [@andrewleach](/creator/undefined) [@shaletier7](/creator/undefined) [@war527](/creator/undefined) [@morningbrew](/creator/undefined) [@cjbean80](/creator/undefined) [@trevorrose](/creator/undefined) [@tourmalineoil](/creator/undefined) [@vanisleinvestor](/creator/undefined) [@lng_investor_](/creator/undefined) [@cadqueso](/creator/undefined) [@winemaker1960](/creator/undefined) [@babygotgas](/creator/undefined)
**Top assets mentioned**
[Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)](/topic/$cnq) [Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. (MEG)](/topic/$meg) [2131KOBUSHIDE (21)](/topic/$21) [Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK)](/topic/$crk) [Vine Energy Inc. (VEI)](/topic/$vei) [EQT, Corp. (EQT)](/topic/$eqt) [Chesapeake Energy, Corp. (CHK)](/topic/$chk) [Accelerant Holdings (ARX)](/topic/$arx) [Southwestern Energy, Co. (SWN)](/topic/$swn) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Example 1: $CNQ ("Quality") vs $MEG ("Beta"). A) Quality typically outperforms beta long term (positive intercept) B) Beta O/P on real run ups (30%+ 6mo moves) C) Quality wins on dips D) Stasis favors quality (slightly)"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1432379645190619142) 2021-08-30T16:28Z 15.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Interesting in Gas This Week Price Slump. And what a slump its been. Statistically we are deep in the outlier zone on NYMEX; [---] stdev move territory (6w point-to-point move on a [--] yr history). Stats alone would suggest we are prime for a bounce or a breather. Why did prices slump L48 production got a bit surgy into the end of the year right when January weather expectations were fading is probably the simplest answer. How sticky these production adds are is a bit of an open question as they do seem to struggle to stay on. Is this new production that is freezing off and will come back in the"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/2009685833461448932) 2026-01-09T17:56Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting in Gas This Week M&A: Mitsubishi Buys Aethon for $7.5bn (4x CF/ $21 kboepd); LNG buyers continue to consolidate a vertically integrated value chain. DVN/CTRA rumoured; would make a $45bn diversified independent; midcon and Delaware offer synergy potential. LNG Canada looking for a successful T2 start; data shows two recent loadings a queue backed out the bay and large pipeline nominations into the plant today and yesterday. A ramping LNG-C into next weeks -20c temps will give us some eye popping draws and forward basis something to think about. WCSB Production continues to"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/2012242387716977091) 2026-01-16T19:15Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@andrew_leach Growth /= ample egress. Some of these years were rail diff years. Build pipe faster than the resource grows production and we will sell it at high prices and live like kings as a country"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/2020306928329715741) 2026-02-08T01:21Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@ShaleTier7 So I'm [--] hr into this and Elon just used the phrase "plus or minus an order of magnatude" as a CYA. I can't wait to trot that qualifier out in my own work https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/elon-musk https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/elon-musk"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/2021246784815632820) 2026-02-10T15:36Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting in Gas This Week - TPH out hard this week with tons of great macro work. They see oil production rolling in the US lead by the Bakken which they see declining by 60% over the next [--] years. Gas to Oil Ratios (GOR) will mean gas lags this decline but gravity is inevitable and Bakken Gas production will also start to turn over. This is great news for Canada who can cheaply slip into these Bakken servicing gas pipelines with minimal upstream expansion needs (and costs). - TPH also flags mobile power build out to add capacity for natural gas consumption of [--] bcfpd on top of the"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/2017332487504936995) 2026-01-30T20:21Z 15.4K followers, 16.4K engagements
"Interesting in Gas This Week Between reading Jamin Ball on SAAS listening to [--] hrs of Elon on Dwarkesh and reading alternating 'work is doomed' vs 'Luddites false warning' threads this has definitely felt like a week of listening to AI on LOUD. For gas the relevent vector for these investment themes is both the obvious (gas power feeds AI) and the tangent. The tangent is the fund flows from SAAS into energy and because of how indexes are weighted and how the market loves momentum in this specific moment Exxon Mobil. For the first time since [----] (outside of an oil crash) Exxon enjoys the same"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/2021985076662395017) 2026-02-12T16:29Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"New to the demand outlook for the next decade will be India and Africa who are effectively both right at the point of economic development ($ GDP) where China was before it grew a [--] Bcfpd demand wedge in [--] years"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/2006835856557109309) 2026-01-01T21:12Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements
"My prediction list for [----] - We see AECO basis inside a $1 at some point and the forward [--] month basis to continue to tighten - We see US gas gen power growth show up with meaningful YoY growth - We see a bit of a 'hangover' from these low oil prices on US associated gas growth and supply averages less growth next year than it did this year - We talk a lot about LNG arbs and potential curtailment but see little to none in '26 - We see a lot more behind the fence data centers announced and at least one in Canada - More M&A and an oil company does a gas deal that gets applauded. One of the"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/2006835858192871588) 2026-01-01T21:12Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting in Gas This Week Winter Vol. There is so much to say and so much that's been said. Three points. (1) This storm came at exactly the right time from a positioning perspective (something spoken to in this channel both of the last two weeks). January had thoroughly disappointed speculative interest had drifted net short and equity / commodity brokers alike were putting out their 'maybe oversold but revising our price deck lower' reports. What a difference a week makes with [---] Bcf of weather demand added and now up to [---] Bcf of freeze off impact expected to roll into the S&D data"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/2014793355327373652) 2026-01-23T20:12Z 15.3K followers, 21.6K engagements
"I get why Appalachia dry gas co's may lag on this rally (basis worries) but the Haynesville lag is a bit unfair. $CRK and $VEI interesting here. Still like Canada gas better but these are sticking out today at -3/-4 1d -6/-10 1m while '22 gas +13% 1m"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1418241222955597825) 2021-07-22T16:07Z 15.4K followers, [--] engagements
"That WAS fast"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1881419857461432571) 2025-01-20T19:13Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@WAR527 Friday - hard to tell. You can probably argue that there is some power / AI 'halo' value in some US gas stocks. That halo stops at the border in my opinion and isn't in Canadian gas stocks despite it being in the power stocks ( $TA $CPX ) and some infra tailwind so far"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1980356220809879879) 2025-10-20T19:31Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@MorningBrew Wait is that public"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1409964706568163330) 2021-06-29T19:59Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
""Hey why are energy equities lagging while commodities and fundamentals are still strong" [--] Observation [--] Theory's and a catalyst 🧵"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1416121275316011008) 2021-07-16T19:43Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"My take on the macro investing themes in North American natural gas space coming into this fall's conference season. Miss anything"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1430643580775895043) 2021-08-25T21:29Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Never go full hedge"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1433164984415133701) 2021-09-01T20:28Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"In a parallel universe. Canada's PM just got off the plane from COP26 where he recommitted Canada's role in providing the globe the cleanest and least expensive oil and gas in order to get the world economy moving amid supply shortages that could cost lives this winter"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1455658003206529032) 2021-11-02T22:08Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Top story to follow Omicron will be Euro energy crisis The long term investment implications are which geopolitically stable regions house the next decade of nat gas supply (Russia can't be trusted theme) NAM has Euro's back. $TOU $EQT $CHK $ARX $SWN are the core names of scale"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1473396190624444419) 2021-12-21T20:53Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"*CHENIERE CEO SAYS COMPANY SOLD OUT OF LNG INTO THE 2040S Don't be sore build some more"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1500877695319560195) 2022-03-07T16:55Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Who needs a windfall tax Oil and gas companies poured $48 billion into government coffers this year says RBC https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/who-needs-a-windfall-tax-oil-and-gas-companies-poured-48-billion-into-government-coffers-this-year-says-rbc https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/who-needs-a-windfall-tax-oil-and-gas-companies-poured-48-billion-into-government-coffers-this-year-says-rbc"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1550545880587042816) 2022-07-22T18:18Z 15.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Trudeau doesn't see a business case for exporting LNG to Europe. I volunteer to frame one out. 🧵 https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/touting-clean-energy-pm-trudeau-questions-business-case-for-exporting-liquefied-natural-gas-to-europe-1.6037556 https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/touting-clean-energy-pm-trudeau-questions-business-case-for-exporting-liquefied-natural-gas-to-europe-1.6037556"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1562122177314316288) 2022-08-23T16:58Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"I haven't seen a refresh on solar costs in a couple years. Wonder why"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1562467818796228608) 2022-08-24T15:52Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Nations seeing a business case in LNG: USA going from [--] Bcfpd to [--] Bcfpd https://rbnenergy.com/blurred-lines-as-the-us-races-toward-30-bcf-lng-exports-what-could-it-mean-for-upstream-markets https://rbnenergy.com/blurred-lines-as-the-us-races-toward-30-bcf-lng-exports-what-could-it-mean-for-upstream-markets"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1562484400528375815) 2022-08-24T16:58Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Steam engines power many Tesla cars today. 🧐 Wont be long before we view gasoline cars the same way we view steam engines today Wont be long before we view gasoline cars the same way we view steam engines today"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1569445069123629056) 2022-09-12T21:57Z 15.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Excellent illustration of why backwardation (down sloping) is generally a signal for improving prompt crude prices and contango (upward sloping) usually results in worsening prices. Its not an intuitive concept and underscores that strips are not forecasts but storage spreads"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1578540873675329536) 2022-10-08T00:20Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"BP acquires LFG for $4.1bn 16.5x EBITDA $683000000/boepd. Gents and lassies. I have a business plan"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1582379833283448832) 2022-10-18T14:35Z 15.4K followers, [--] engagements
"We likely about to hit our first freeze off in Natural Gas this winter Freeze off variables - Effects wells that produce water (Bakken Permian STACK/SCOOP DJ SW Marc / Utica) vs dry basins (Haynesville NE Marcy) - Hits harder in unhardened basins (TX) - Intensity duration"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1603787035453829121) 2022-12-16T16:20Z 15.4K followers, 23.6K engagements
"Nat Gas Thoughts Henry Hub was $6 now $3.90. What gives [--]. Weather. Its warm. Especially in places where a lot of people live (Tx NE) even Europe"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1610351332866805760) 2023-01-03T19:04Z 15.4K followers, 48.6K engagements
"Coal to gas switching at pretty epic levels for this time of year. Is equating to 4-5 Bcfpd in additional year over year burns in natural gas power"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1649414904598745091) 2023-04-21T14:08Z 15.4K followers, 27.3K engagements
"If this [---] gas rigs sticks next week i think we can mark the turning point in gas for 2023"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1657083177318645761) 2023-05-12T17:59Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"A generalist investment memo in Energy. My take. 🧵 Opener - which energy source holds the best forward return outlook Selecting from renewable (wind / solar / hydro) oil gas nuclear & coal Which subset has the best S&D set up to provide for outsized investment returns"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1671259725827276801) 2023-06-20T20:52Z 15.4K followers, 124.8K engagements
"*US TOTAL RIG COUNT DOWN [--] TO [---] - BAKER HUGHES SAYS I'm no genious but I think I see a pattern"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1672290829912903681) 2023-06-23T17:09Z 15.4K followers, 24.9K engagements
"Natural gas just crossed below $2/mcf. In basin pricing is closer to $1.50 (threshold for economic curtailment for older / tier [--] assets on variable cost) Every time natural gas has dropped below $2 it and gas equites have had a rally higher in the following [--] months"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1755258416619000031) 2024-02-07T15:53Z 15.4K followers, 37.3K engagements
"The returns numbers on the below signal Natural gas just crossed below $2/mcf. In basin pricing is closer to $1.50 (threshold for economic curtailment for older / tier [--] assets on variable cost) Every time natural gas has dropped below $2 it and gas equites have had a rally higher in the following [--] months. https://t.co/lD3XDuVV8D Natural gas just crossed below $2/mcf. In basin pricing is closer to $1.50 (threshold for economic curtailment for older / tier [--] assets on variable cost) Every time natural gas has dropped below $2 it and gas equites have had a rally higher in the following 12"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1755621822207291859) 2024-02-08T15:57Z 15.4K followers, 76.5K engagements
"Power Thought GS dropped [--] AI / Power reports this morning (my cup overfloweth) and over the past [--] weeks we've seen over a dozen estimates from research houses and industry participants alike. If you want to take a law of large numbers approach the median expectation is for [--] Bcfpd of additional natural gas power burn by [----] which squares to effectively just the market share capture of the anticipated load growth. If gas can continue to increase market share (as it has in both coal switching regions but also greening regions as a key source of grid hardening) then we can cast our eyes"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1785005536204710312) 2024-04-29T17:57Z 15.4K followers, 47.3K engagements
"Gas market fundamentals are giving us exactly what we need to see for a firm fall. Chart🧵 [----] demand is power led. [----] Demand will be LNG led. 26-30 will be both"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1797687677573267857) 2024-06-03T17:51Z 15.4K followers, 29.1K engagements
"Just finished what might be the most bearish O&G commodity outlook I've ever read. Premise is 1) Asia not growing like it used to and OECD stagnent 2) Coal satisfying much of the marginal primary energy growth needed and is the energy security form of choice in Asia 3) Coal will push gas to lignet switching ($6 floating (50% gas downside); thats a $2 hhub implied 4) Gas will push oil displacement on transport mostly (-$5 vs crude forwards) Not well addressed is elasticity of demand and latent demand effect. Call me old fashioned but when fuels get cheap enterprising people and nations find"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1818746089648144488) 2024-07-31T20:30Z 15.4K followers, 82.2K engagements
"$0.68 this Sunday marks the cheapest C$ since [----]. For energy exporters this FX move is a powerful offset to tariff costs"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1886158488793235955) 2025-02-02T21:03Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"You can add another effective LNG plant to your US balances with the Mexican power generation build out. [---] Bcfpd by [----] and it looks to be US exports needed for supply. Credit NBF Criterion"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1889338886184108129) 2025-02-11T15:41Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"First LNG shipment from Canada in July says Petronas https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/745830 https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/745830"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1894441110111424799) 2025-02-25T17:35Z 15.4K followers, 19.2K engagements
"Quite a week for the shale productivity discussion Travis Stice in chorus with Scott Sheffield at CERA the best days are behind US shale and supply costs are going up. Oil Tier [--] exhaustion. What about gas - Haynesville is showing some age - Appalachia still not clear if we've tipped; we did finish off the best of what Cabot had (best gas shale ever drilled) - Montney continues to trend strongly on productivity with costs still improving - Deep Basin flat productivity with increasing liquids. Kimmeridge paper sees Montney as 2nd best play with depth behind the Delaware (and ahead of midland)."
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1919865831905009778) 2025-05-06T21:24Z 15.4K followers, 11.5K engagements
"To quote the boss lets use whats between our ears to better develop whats beneath our feet. When you develop a resource the resource helps pay taxes build schools provide wealth to the nation. Its a gift. Lets not waste it. The challenges facing Canada are not small but we will meet them with focus and determination. That is how Canadians have built the best country in the world. That is how we will build it to be even better. The challenges facing Canada are not small but we will meet them with focus and determination. That is how Canadians have built the best country in the world. That is"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1925324760747016399) 2025-05-21T22:56Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"*LNG CANADA SAYS COOLDOWN OF FIRST PRODUCTION UNIT HAS STARTED Community Notification: New Flaring Activity A new flaring activity associated with the start-up of Train [--] will commence Monday June [--]. During this activity the flare height will vary between [--] metres and [--] metres. We anticipate intermittent visible emissions (black smoke) from the flare"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1934652892088267121) 2025-06-16T16:42Z 15.4K followers, 26.1K engagements
"Best way to track LNG Canada so far hasn't been Willow Creek or boats its been the Sunset Creek West Nomination Schedule. How does one pull this you ask Link: Filter Sunset Creek/West Sum of Requested Nominations You're getting Gj per day (1.05 conversion to mcf). https://noms.wei-pipeline.com/reports/ci_report/launch.phpmenuitem=200 https://noms.wei-pipeline.com/reports/ci_report/launch.phpmenuitem=200"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1942690918492151884) 2025-07-08T21:03Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"AECO Catalyst Path 🧵 First off why has July / August been such a mess. Export outages is 8/10ths of the story weak intrabasin demand (it's been cold and rainy) is 2/10ths. [--] Bcfpd of typically relied upon export capacity is offline (see GTN [--] vs [--] chart below as an example). EGAT Great Lakes ect have also had temporary outages that generally were greater than last year. We should be 'fully back' in October. Narrative has been "too much production on in advance of the start up of LNG Canada". Facts are more "1 Bcfpd of export capacity offline masking any of the early plant start up"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1955301984308957343) 2025-08-12T16:14Z 15.4K followers, 24.5K engagements
"Interesting in Gas this Week (1) AECO starting to reflect the tighter basin dynamics with LNG Canada pulling [--] Bcfpd (1/2 way) and production growth in no position to keep up. Personal view is we see pricing go from $3.15/gj today towards $4/gj in the coming 2-3 months. (2) Google can build datacenters powered by gas with CCUS. We've had lots of 'un named' projects so far its good to see some 'heads up' announcements. (3) PD bringing high spec rigs back to Canada. The banks are up here the PE firms are doing their work the rigs are coming back. Looking forward to seeing capital pour in and"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1981727580547129536) 2025-10-24T14:20Z 15.4K followers, 12K engagements
"2022 Energy Investment Theme Ideas: 🧵 #1: Quality vs Beta Beta had "a year" last year with a big re-rate in commodity prices. Unless you are in the $150 WTI camp; [----] is probably a "good but flat" price deck so rate of change is all about FCF capture. https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1432379645190619142s=20 Example 1: $CNQ ("Quality") vs $MEG ("Beta"). A) Quality typically outperforms beta long term (positive intercept) B) Beta O/P on real run ups (30%+ 6mo moves) C) Quality wins on dips D) Stasis favors quality (slightly) https://t.co/F2T9xQeEcT"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1471188687345963011) 2021-12-15T18:41Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"The moves in the back are massive. I'm a broken drum on this but it matters. Move front month up $1 and you get a quarterly beat. Move the whole curve up $1 and you've just changed decades of return on capital & a stock 2x. The front moves the multiple. The back moves the NAV"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1509652789533634565) 2022-03-31T22:04Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"$6 gas in April. Strong to very strong. Couple of reasons why: [--]. Production has been super weak. Not only are we not making new highs in some areas (marcellus) we are struggling against the [----] comp"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1511356335039819778) 2022-04-05T14:53Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Alberta is forecasted to get a historic inflow of royalty income. This time let's not do Ralf bucks. Let's take a page from Norway and do a wealth fund. Compound $200bn (a [--] year look at the *excess* income) and we can dividend $10bn to society yearly without hitting principle"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1546491569485713408) 2022-07-11T13:48Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"RBC doing the real work on Canadian O&G tax outlook. Hey Canada next [----] bridges are on us"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1549754033698615296) 2022-07-20T13:52Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"The inventory depletion theme is not a down the road theme. It's a right now theme. "10-15 years of inventory" will prompt action today. COG sold a year ago and now reserves written down 32%. CTRA today"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1588284596747395072) 2022-11-03T21:38Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"I think we are entering an era in Energy where the greatest performance will be had in owning the largest company's. Some qualitative thoughts and some quantitative thoughts. 🧵"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1591196867874131969) 2022-11-11T22:31Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"I petition that because many E&P companies are now taxable we drop EV/EBITDA as a reference multiple in the comp sheets and transition to EV/DACF multiples FCF/EV yields and years of inventory studies as the ABC's of referenced valuation figures. #endEBITDA"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1593337447513198593) 2022-11-17T20:17Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"A friendly reminder to invest in your natural gas supply and infrastructure this decade. California (PG&E) just traded $75/mcf in the 'balance of month' (Balmo) contract and is shattering all time records daily in cash. Most expensive gas on the planet"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1601293967970435072) 2022-12-09T19:13Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Natural gas is at $2.85/mcf this morning at HHUB. Adjusting for the inflation experienced over the last [--] years in real $'s it is $2.35/mcf. Historically we see a meaningful supply response in the $2.25-$2.50 range and outright curtailments below $2.00 - $2.25"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1618624626715942912) 2023-01-26T14:59Z 15.4K followers, 30.4K engagements
"In basin Haynesville pricing slipped below $2 today to $1.86/mcf. In [----] "real terms" that's closer to $1.25/mcf. TPH 'proactively' cut their CRK model to maintenance to "keep close to FCF neutral" CRK Q4 - Feb [--] CHK & SWN Q4 - Feb [--] All eyes on activity"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1622693000899104769) 2023-02-06T20:25Z 15.4K followers, 35.8K engagements
"$PXD for $RRC rumour on the tape. Would make a [--] bcfpd gas business proforma. $6.5bn deal. Every oil company needs a second chapter and for many of them its going to be to become a gas company. EOG is doing it organically. PXD is replacing the EF they sold with Marcy"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1629207501974687744) 2023-02-24T19:51Z 15.4K followers, 88.8K engagements
"CA not willing to expand natural gas *pipeline* infrastructure Reminds me of Boston. Wait a second. Now hear me out"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1631024582772793344) 2023-03-01T20:12Z 15.4K followers, 21.7K engagements
"I liked RRC's spin on storage in their Q and deck thinking about it in terms of days supply. Bears would flag that days does not equal capacity and you can hit max storage (4.1 Tcf - tho that is a debate as well) and puke on price with a days chart that looks fine But the days supply flags a really important point. We are growing supply and demand in North America and we are not growing storage. Pre LNG build out 2025-2030 this creates a very volatile system; storage itself can service less and less of a "tail event" bullish or bearish and so price has to do a lot more work (aka realize"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1651242104591626250) 2023-04-26T15:09Z 15.4K followers, 49.3K engagements
"The hayensville curtailment is getting really meaningful. [---] Bcfpd from peak. While gas in plays like appalachia have a history of curtailement this is brand new behaviour from the Hayensville folk; wiping out all of the YTD growth in [--] weeks. Perryville $1.97/mcf"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1666811921713217543) 2023-06-08T14:18Z 15.4K followers, 47.7K engagements
"The solar duck curve (net load) + the [--] price curve (nearly valueless power sold mid day) lead to a simple economic conclusion. Solar installation in increasingly solar saturated ISO's is an increasingly valueless energy addition. Batteries are now essential adding cost modest load shift (4 hrs) and no seasonal benefit. This highlights the dramatic difference between LCOE (levelized cost of energy) and ELCC (effective load carrying capacity). Batteries are only moving the energy dispatch [--] hrs and provide no seasonal benefit (cold winter night) Additional solar instalation today inclusive of"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1671913589970731008) 2023-06-22T16:10Z 15.4K followers, 33.2K engagements
"Alright NGL twitter. Make us all smarter. I think I get some of this cross product move (sympathy to WTI Shell PA cracker less deep cut runs vs shallow cut gas rewarding heat rate in June creates July tightness) but would enjoy community commentary on this NGL move"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1682050860808028160) 2023-07-20T15:32Z 15.4K followers, 42K engagements
"Re NGL's Mr Alan Engberg enters the chat on the RRC Call. "Yeah. Thanks Roger. This is Alan Engberg. I'm -- I manage our Liquids Marketing Business. I'll give it a shot give you some background on what the -- what's been behind some of the recent strength that we've seen in ethane. I think I would start by saying ethane fundamentals have been pretty tight for a while now. We've mentioned it in prior calls but the days supply hit five-year lows last year and we've been hugging those five-year lows all through this year swap. So when the market is tight like that there's really not a lot of"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1683961060959875075) 2023-07-25T22:02Z 15.4K followers, 33.9K engagements
"Not investment advice do you own due diligence. This morning TC trades at a 8.3% dividend and is in a 15% [--] day down draft. Someone big is out and they are willing to be splashy about it. You don't get that many opportunities to ride a 8% investment grade coupon + growth kicker into a peaking interest rate environment (aka headwinds are max *right now*) with the largest natural gas export boom in North America's history on the doorstep"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1684930854701969408) 2023-07-28T14:16Z 15.4K followers, 122.3K engagements
"On the back of two weeks of talking with investors and energy companies I'm struck with a couple of themes in Energy this fall. 1) Some trepedation on the 'path' for gas in the next [--] months but a lot of confidence in the bullish fundamentals for 2025-2028; equites are thought to be focusing on the latter. If LNG is post October '24 we probably have a sloppy '24 summer. If incremental LNG feedgas arrives in time to consume meaningful gas Sept/Oct '24 that clears the way for the whole '24 summer strip to rally. 2) Deflation talked about in June is now flat and labour + rail rates / sand are"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1702769830695493820) 2023-09-15T19:42Z 15.4K followers, 41.8K engagements
"Fun slide and call commentary from EQT. The thickness of the returns bar tells you a lot about the time to payback on incremental growth investment. If you break even at $2.50 but need $3.50 to squeak out a 10% return on EV your response function to a change in natural gas prices is sloped very low. I'll admit I'm head scratching a bit on F with the lowest cost of supply and 2nd highest cost of returns. Figuring this is CRK with a really cheap operating cost structure but the least efficienct capital cost structure. Punchline is less growth and a less responsive supply function to higher gas"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1717612887257358827) 2023-10-26T18:43Z 15.4K followers, 32.2K engagements
"Ill admit. Sometimes I struggle to see a sustainable bullish path for crude with [--] mmbbls of spare capacity squeeky wheels in the group and Petrobras slamming the capex hammer down. Lots of different ways for a contrived run to $100/bbl crude to get supplied. Range bound $70-80 seems like the best and base case. Rebuilt one of my first Commodity Context OPEC+ charts for the upcoming release of my new OPEC Data Deck. https://t.co/ZHdFV51lve Rebuilt one of my first Commodity Context OPEC+ charts for the upcoming release of my new OPEC Data Deck. https://t.co/ZHdFV51lve"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1730087618988351728) 2023-11-30T04:53Z 15.4K followers, 53.3K engagements
"Gas Bull Bear Bear - Golden Pass 1H25 vs 2H24 prior - Winter what winter - Production outperformance in L48 Oct/Nov; how sticky - Major's Permian activity ramp in '24. unhelpful Bull - Haynesville production [--] day moving average rolls to a negative slope for first time since July - $2.50 gas sows seeds for diciplined E&P guidance discussion in Jan/Feb - Post technical breakdown and multi-week beatdown reflectivity off of good news (weather supply disruption / freeze off) skewed to a relief rally - Euro industral demand finally firming; more evidence of APAC appetite for incremental LNG"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1732855372296470951) 2023-12-07T20:11Z 15.4K followers, 20.3K engagements
"Fresh off the Goldman energy conference with a couple of impressions. Everyone getting their homework done on gas. Nobody wants to miss the upward lurch to [----] fundamentals but when to be fully invested is a debate. My sense is hedge funds have covered but new longs are yet to be meaningfully initiated. Long only who werent in for the ride in [--] are nibbling or waiting now. NGLs are the most pessimistic sub market. Crude seemed more apathetic. Gas operator updates will include some incremental activity reductions at the margins but on mass these are nudges. Interest felt really high. Full"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1743364448251752873) 2024-01-05T20:10Z 15.4K followers, 117.2K engagements
"Last one. Every year in the last [--] years we went below $2 on NYMEX natural gas we were over $3 in October The returns numbers on the below signal https://t.co/dq034CQV0U The returns numbers on the below signal https://t.co/dq034CQV0U"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1755980991796011290) 2024-02-09T15:44Z 15.4K followers, 24.5K engagements
"CHK "Chesapeake is currently operating nine rigs (five in the Haynesville and four in the Marcellus) and four frac crews (two in each basin). Given current market dynamics the company plans to defer placing wells on production while reducing rig and completion activity. The company will drop a rig in the Haynesville and Marcellus in March and around mid-year respectively and a frac crew in each basin in March. These activity levels will be maintained through year end. Deferring new well production and completion activity will build short-cycle capital efficient productive capacity which can"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1760051594148671837) 2024-02-20T21:19Z 15.4K followers, 43.5K engagements
"It was great to sit down with @trevor_rose_ . Thank you very much for having me. We recorded only a week ago and already we're getting some of the catalysts we were looking for $TOU New interview w/ @TourmalineOil VP @JamieHeard5 on: $2 Natural Gas Marketing Ingenuity & Why Quality Source Rock is Essential https://t.co/fwCHdk5WW2 #EFT https://t.co/J4eF9IBiku $TOU New interview w/ @TourmalineOil VP @JamieHeard5 on: $2 Natural Gas Marketing Ingenuity & Why Quality Source Rock is Essential https://t.co/fwCHdk5WW2 #EFT https://t.co/J4eF9IBiku"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1760686952217825491) 2024-02-22T15:24Z 15.4K followers, 20.5K engagements
"Update on "what happens if I buy gas equities when gas goes below $2". So far we are rhyming well with history. The returns numbers on the below signal https://t.co/dq034CQV0U The returns numbers on the below signal https://t.co/dq034CQV0U"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1762247706880135377) 2024-02-26T22:46Z 15.4K followers, 45.6K engagements
"Natural gas catalyst path 🐂 and 🐻 March: Freeport "we barely know ya" reramp🐂 Production curtailment and activity degrades🐂 salts filling 🐻 April/May/June: Start of LNG maintenance season 🐻 Salts full 🐻 OFS pricing softens (does that mean E&P re-ramp (no))🐻 Production slips to YoY deficit🐂 low LNG pricing starts to inflect seaborn demand higher 🐂 July/August/Sept: Production starts to look like its really struggling (98 bcfpd)🐂 Another year of strong power burn and first year of strong industrial burn in a while (US and Europe)🐂 LNG start ups being or on the cusp of beginning 🐂"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1768386250392637899) 2024-03-14T21:18Z 15.4K followers, 13.4K engagements
"Most common thematic natural gas question today is what will data center energy consumption mean for domestic natural gas power burn consumption. Some thoughts 🧵👇"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1772703893761167475) 2024-03-26T19:15Z 15.4K followers, 73K engagements
"HAL Conference Call Gas Highlights Gas Demand / AI In the U.S. after stable electricity demand for nearly two decades we now expect it to grow more than 15% by [----]. Today over 40% of United States electricity is supplied by natural gas and we expect strong demand for natural gas as a base fuel well into the future. The world requires more energy not less and I'm more convinced than ever that oil and gas will fill a critical role in the global energy mix for decades to come. My outlook is confirmed by our customers' multiyear activity plans across multiple markets and asset types. Question"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1782858992521211961) 2024-04-23T19:48Z 15.4K followers, 19.3K engagements
"Gas basin modeling thought. We know a part of the decline since March is curtailment not native declines. Given activity has not inflected (in fact its rolled further over the last three months) it might be a reasonable estimate to project the pre-curtailment decline forward as a proxy for when we are back to true basin declines again. With this method in the Haynesville we transition back to true basin declines in June at [---] Bcfpd at a high decline. In Appalachia its more likely this fall at [----] Bcfpd at a low decline. The punchline is you can bring back curtailed volume really quickly. In"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1791519705129177102) 2024-05-17T17:22Z 15.4K followers, 23.2K engagements
"All good things *ALBERTA PREMIER DANIELLE SMITH SPEAKS IN CALGARY *ALBERTA SHOULD ASPIRE TO DOUBLE OIL AND GAS OUTPUT: SMITH *ALBERTA WORKING GROUP IS LOOKING TO ATTRACT DATA CENTERS:SMITH *DECISION ON LNG CANADA PHASE [--] IS EXPECTED SOON: SMITH"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1800571366644854848) 2024-06-11T16:50Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Dislocation Opportunity Front month AECO and AECO cash have been weak as local storage injections portend potential brimming of local storage later this summer and fall (price is hunting for some curtailment from high cost players). This makes sense. It also cleans up with heat (local cooling demand) LNG Canada first gas and incremental flows (anticipated this summer) and operator activity shaping - summer/fall catalysts. AECO [--] is 'dislocated' but fundamental price is working to solve the problem. AECO [----] is dislocated and not fundamental. AECO basis at $1.45 and AECO at C$2.77 (US$2.02)"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1803849082638651398) 2024-06-20T17:55Z 15.4K followers, 14.7K engagements
"US power demand going from strong to very strong This year was supposed to be "a tough comp" for gas burn as last year was quite hot and this year had a lot of renewable capacity coming on stream. Instead we are averaging [--] Bcfpd in power adds through May and June and weather looks very supportive for July/August as well. To put it in perspective if we can grind [--] bcfpd of burn adds on average annually thats the equivilant of an extra LNG export plant being added every two years that nobody was counting on even [--] months ago. 3-4% annual domestic + export growth moving towards 4-5% growth. 5%"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1810346304763228192) 2024-07-08T16:12Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Reasons [----] gas prices could bottom this week. 1) Plaquemines start up 2) Freeport not as broken as feared 3) Haynesville declines resume 4) Heat returns 5) Technically we've bottomed here before; and who is excited to hedge a $3.30 CAL25 Selling pressure should be thin; after reportedly being uniquely heavy in June/July on some big structured programs. 6) Q2 E&P commentary should be about continued contrition 7) Canadian 'heat off's' take the edge of imports to NYMEX 8) We've been straight line lower for [--] weeks in a row the commodity and the equities are technically weak and ready for a"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1813206718240653334) 2024-07-16T13:39Z 15.4K followers, 10.9K engagements
"Wrapping up two weeks of marketing and have some general impressions on energy investors mindset. - the oil outlook is frightening some with a 10-20% chance of a repeat of black thanksgiving (OPEC fights for market share again) and a 80-90% chance of okay pricing in a highly managed and more and more contentious S&D with OPEC conceding share to Brazil Guyana and to some extent shale. Canada oil growth also hitting some meaningful adds over the next [--] years. Saying all this stocks are reasonably priced and flat is still a good return for most. - hard to find a 1H25 gas bull easy to find a 2H25"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1836238914324992325) 2024-09-18T03:00Z 15.4K followers, 23.6K engagements
"Biggest one day gas gain in over a month out the forward strip delivered (in my opinion) by the Constellation / Microsoft deal that restarts the Three Mile Island Nuclear plant with a $1.6bn PPA. Why would a Nuke restart get the gas strip and (some) gas stocks going My thought: This PPA is another important datapoint that the $'s and attention in growing power production in the US to feed data centers and general electrical demand increases. This nuke will come on by the end of the decade (optimistically). With the same coin to just restart this Nuke you could build a [----] MW gas power plant"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1837199354140004381) 2024-09-20T18:37Z 15.4K followers, 44.1K engagements
"LNG Glut thought experiment. The world produces and consumes [---] Bcfpd of gas every day (give or take). LNG is currently is [--] Bcfpd of this [---] Bcfpd balancing market. By the end of the decade LNG will be closer to [--] Bcfpd. Assuming the established 3% global gas CAGR stays roughly on trend the total gas market will be in the mid 400's (450-460 Bcfpd). First of all on its head this doesn't suggest a big over supply. LNG capacity is coming on at 5-10 Bcfpd per year (NAM + Qatar + Mozambique ect) each year; [---] Bcfpd growing at 2-3% is 8-12 Bcfpd of growth every year. The IEA pegs next year at"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1844428822684500185) 2024-10-10T17:24Z 15.4K followers, 18.6K engagements
"Weather and continued discipline out of US gas production has summer [--] up 30c m/m and winter 25/26 over $4.50. Most producers will make great profits at these prices (which of course is always the worry) but capital discipline and the huge wall of LNG and power demand on the [--] year horizon has the potential to extend this current buoyancy and firm pricing for years to come. Merry Christmas and a happy new years"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1873917621172920555) 2024-12-31T02:22Z 15.4K followers, 10.7K engagements
"Make that two LNG trains ramping now. CCL Stage [--] popping Corpus to new highs. Plaquemines also at new highs this morning. We also recoverd [--] Bcf of weather demand over the weekend sending NYMEX to $3.60 this morning. Freeze offs just starting to show up"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1876288212148388182) 2025-01-06T15:22Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Fresh off some early January marketing and some thoughts: Investors seem nervous on the oil outlook but engaged and optimistic on the gas outlook. We have started [----] off with a bang and within the last [--] weeks we've had weather Plaquemines and CCL [--] all add significant demand into the '25 balances. I think the larger thematic emerging from the January conferences (to date) is the temperance continued to be expressed by US operators around what it would take for growth. Haynesville operators specifically have started throwing out the "$5" handle as a strip they get more interested in growth"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1877441284761334271) 2025-01-09T19:44Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Any American looking at Canadian E&P gas levered stocks today gets to pencil in a 7% return on C$ normalization + a 20% to 40% return on Canadian vs US performance disparity normalization since the election. Tariffs are not a big grind for gas co's (credit TD chart below) AECO is upside on top"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1879929038816641084) 2025-01-16T16:29Z 15.4K followers, 10.3K engagements
"LNG prices have moved 70% higher over the last [--] months to US$15 for both JKM (Asia) and TTF (European) gas. Front month TTF is +$0.80 this morning as weather and geopolitics continue to tighten balances and outlook. For those that get paid in Canadian peso's this is C$22; a level not seen since the Ukraine war spike in '22"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1884638069132755025) 2025-01-29T16:21Z 15.4K followers, 10.9K engagements
"Another [---] Bcfpd of demand created. These are adding up. Energy Transfer and CloudBurst Sign Agreement for Natural Gas Supply to Data Center Project in Central Texas - https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250207943457/en/Energy-Transfer-and-CloudBurst-Sign-Agreement-for-Natural-Gas-Supply-to-Data-Center-Project-in-Central-Texasutm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1888966527744942356) 2025-02-10T15:01Z 15.4K followers, 12.4K engagements
"Interesting this week in Gas: MS raises 2H25 NYMEX price deck to $5.25 and [----] to $5 on the back of very fast Plaquemines ramp and thin production adds NBF sees datacenter demand adding 4-6 Bcfpd in US and 0.9-1.4 bcfpd in AB by [----] JP adds up Turbine orders and sees [---] Bcfpd of power growth by [----] Enverus figures Citadel paid $2mm/loc (adj for PDP) for Paloma Bernstein joins the party of brokers calling for oversupplied LNG market in 26/27; tight market emerging again in 29/30; I personally am excited to see what kind of APAC demand we get when we even sniff single digit LNG pricing."
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1903209722104385675) 2025-03-21T22:18Z 15.4K followers, 12K engagements
"5 Quick market thoughts this Friday and thinking if a "Covid playbook" has some use here: The more dramatic the retaliation tariffs are the more urgency there is to come to a solution. 34% China tariffs with no loopholes strikes me as dramatic. Europe/UK to follow(). The worse it looks the shorter it will likely last. What was the last sharp severe but quickly bouncing pull back we had Covid. The peak to trough drawdown on the S&P is 17%. Covid was 33%. "Tariff Trantrum = 1/2 a Covid" It feels too soon to declare a bottom and many tech stocks are still above their [----] lows but when 20%+"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1908267573122314663) 2025-04-04T21:16Z 15.4K followers, 17.7K engagements
"The Haynesville is "supposed" to be a [--] bcfpd+ growth basin Since 3Q24 growth expectations continue to thin while gas prices have risen What gives - Consolidation discipline different private strategies - Tier [--] drilling lowers productivity and raises dispatch supply costs"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1912980960456687839) 2025-04-17T21:26Z 15.4K followers, 14.6K engagements
"Fun implied stat. McCoy's turbine report refreshed. Q1 gas power turbine orders hit [--] GW (+36% YoY). In gas consumption terms thats [--] Bcfpd. Annualize that (and assume no further acceleration) thats [--] Bcfpd gas consumption growth from just global power load. Something to weigh against a view of global LNG glut end of decade. Credit JPM"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1925557394349990053) 2025-05-22T14:20Z 15.4K followers, 14.6K engagements
"In gas this week: - Last week of cool weather (and big injections) with summer heat on the doorstep and trending higher than normal for the balance of June - LNG Canada scheduled to receive its first vessel for loading on June 29th (coming from Malaysia) - CAL26 NYMEX finishes the week at $4.45 at YTD highs - AECO cash popping after a week of EGAT maintenance (5 day storage crimp); CAL [--] AECO at C$3.38/mcf. If basis normalizes towards US$1 (vs US$1.80) AECO upside to C$4.70/mcf from here - I think we see $4 CAL26 level in the next [--] months - AESO allocates [---] GW to datacenters for 26/27;"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1931037485905399914) 2025-06-06T17:16Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Narrative: US gas power burn is underperforming this year Reality: Power burn Bcf per CDD is = '24 despite more coal burn and renewable participation. CDD's are down vs last year (YTD); August looks to extend this gap. Weather adjusted this is just as strong as '23 and '24 and [--] Tcf YTD over the [--] year average"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1950297547224076485) 2025-07-29T20:49Z 15.4K followers, 14.6K engagements
"Mitsubishi doubling gas turbine manufacturing capacity up from 30% plans prior is an important macro datapoint. Expansion announcements like this are key to taking yearly global gas demand growth from linear to exponential. https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/mitsubishi-heavy-to-double-gas-turbine-capacity-as-demand-soars https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/mitsubishi-heavy-to-double-gas-turbine-capacity-as-demand-soars"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1962994288662646805) 2025-09-02T21:41Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting in Gas This Week Alberta PPL / META data center firming up; this will consume a lot of gas (particularly on the AESO reserve allocation) drive a lot of investment in Alberta and points a road map for many more project opportunities to come. We think the AB gas consumption opportunity through brownfield restarts and greenfield installs could exceed [--] bcfpd by the end of the decade. This is a great opportunity for the province and the industry to bring capital into the basin. Link: MidOcean Petronas Deal. News articles point to a consideration of US$3bn. This didn't get much press"
[X Link](https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1974228515462787362) 2025-10-03T21:42Z 15.4K followers, 28.1K engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@JamieHeard5 Jamie HeardJamie Heard posts on X about gas, canada, oil, growth the most. They currently have [------] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Social category influence finance 24% countries 21% stocks 10% technology brands 5% automotive brands 3% cryptocurrencies 3% celebrities 2% social networks 2% currencies 1%
Social topic influence gas #1855, canada 13%, oil 10%, growth 9%, we are 7%, investment 7%, strong 5%, business 5%, end of 4%, ai 4%
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @bubleqe @andrew_leach @andrewleach @shaletier7 @war527 @morningbrew @cjbean80 @trevorrose @tourmalineoil @vanisleinvestor @lng_investor_ @cadqueso @winemaker1960 @babygotgas
Top assets mentioned Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. (MEG) 2131KOBUSHIDE (21) Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK) Vine Energy Inc. (VEI) EQT, Corp. (EQT) Chesapeake Energy, Corp. (CHK) Accelerant Holdings (ARX) Southwestern Energy, Co. (SWN) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Example 1: $CNQ ("Quality") vs $MEG ("Beta"). A) Quality typically outperforms beta long term (positive intercept) B) Beta O/P on real run ups (30%+ 6mo moves) C) Quality wins on dips D) Stasis favors quality (slightly)"
X Link 2021-08-30T16:28Z 15.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Interesting in Gas This Week Price Slump. And what a slump its been. Statistically we are deep in the outlier zone on NYMEX; [---] stdev move territory (6w point-to-point move on a [--] yr history). Stats alone would suggest we are prime for a bounce or a breather. Why did prices slump L48 production got a bit surgy into the end of the year right when January weather expectations were fading is probably the simplest answer. How sticky these production adds are is a bit of an open question as they do seem to struggle to stay on. Is this new production that is freezing off and will come back in the"
X Link 2026-01-09T17:56Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting in Gas This Week M&A: Mitsubishi Buys Aethon for $7.5bn (4x CF/ $21 kboepd); LNG buyers continue to consolidate a vertically integrated value chain. DVN/CTRA rumoured; would make a $45bn diversified independent; midcon and Delaware offer synergy potential. LNG Canada looking for a successful T2 start; data shows two recent loadings a queue backed out the bay and large pipeline nominations into the plant today and yesterday. A ramping LNG-C into next weeks -20c temps will give us some eye popping draws and forward basis something to think about. WCSB Production continues to"
X Link 2026-01-16T19:15Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@andrew_leach Growth /= ample egress. Some of these years were rail diff years. Build pipe faster than the resource grows production and we will sell it at high prices and live like kings as a country"
X Link 2026-02-08T01:21Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@ShaleTier7 So I'm [--] hr into this and Elon just used the phrase "plus or minus an order of magnatude" as a CYA. I can't wait to trot that qualifier out in my own work https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/elon-musk https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/elon-musk"
X Link 2026-02-10T15:36Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Interesting in Gas This Week - TPH out hard this week with tons of great macro work. They see oil production rolling in the US lead by the Bakken which they see declining by 60% over the next [--] years. Gas to Oil Ratios (GOR) will mean gas lags this decline but gravity is inevitable and Bakken Gas production will also start to turn over. This is great news for Canada who can cheaply slip into these Bakken servicing gas pipelines with minimal upstream expansion needs (and costs). - TPH also flags mobile power build out to add capacity for natural gas consumption of [--] bcfpd on top of the"
X Link 2026-01-30T20:21Z 15.4K followers, 16.4K engagements
"Interesting in Gas This Week Between reading Jamin Ball on SAAS listening to [--] hrs of Elon on Dwarkesh and reading alternating 'work is doomed' vs 'Luddites false warning' threads this has definitely felt like a week of listening to AI on LOUD. For gas the relevent vector for these investment themes is both the obvious (gas power feeds AI) and the tangent. The tangent is the fund flows from SAAS into energy and because of how indexes are weighted and how the market loves momentum in this specific moment Exxon Mobil. For the first time since [----] (outside of an oil crash) Exxon enjoys the same"
X Link 2026-02-12T16:29Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"New to the demand outlook for the next decade will be India and Africa who are effectively both right at the point of economic development ($ GDP) where China was before it grew a [--] Bcfpd demand wedge in [--] years"
X Link 2026-01-01T21:12Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements
"My prediction list for [----] - We see AECO basis inside a $1 at some point and the forward [--] month basis to continue to tighten - We see US gas gen power growth show up with meaningful YoY growth - We see a bit of a 'hangover' from these low oil prices on US associated gas growth and supply averages less growth next year than it did this year - We talk a lot about LNG arbs and potential curtailment but see little to none in '26 - We see a lot more behind the fence data centers announced and at least one in Canada - More M&A and an oil company does a gas deal that gets applauded. One of the"
X Link 2026-01-01T21:12Z 15.1K followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting in Gas This Week Winter Vol. There is so much to say and so much that's been said. Three points. (1) This storm came at exactly the right time from a positioning perspective (something spoken to in this channel both of the last two weeks). January had thoroughly disappointed speculative interest had drifted net short and equity / commodity brokers alike were putting out their 'maybe oversold but revising our price deck lower' reports. What a difference a week makes with [---] Bcf of weather demand added and now up to [---] Bcf of freeze off impact expected to roll into the S&D data"
X Link 2026-01-23T20:12Z 15.3K followers, 21.6K engagements
"I get why Appalachia dry gas co's may lag on this rally (basis worries) but the Haynesville lag is a bit unfair. $CRK and $VEI interesting here. Still like Canada gas better but these are sticking out today at -3/-4 1d -6/-10 1m while '22 gas +13% 1m"
X Link 2021-07-22T16:07Z 15.4K followers, [--] engagements
"That WAS fast"
X Link 2025-01-20T19:13Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"@WAR527 Friday - hard to tell. You can probably argue that there is some power / AI 'halo' value in some US gas stocks. That halo stops at the border in my opinion and isn't in Canadian gas stocks despite it being in the power stocks ( $TA $CPX ) and some infra tailwind so far"
X Link 2025-10-20T19:31Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"@MorningBrew Wait is that public"
X Link 2021-06-29T19:59Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
""Hey why are energy equities lagging while commodities and fundamentals are still strong" [--] Observation [--] Theory's and a catalyst 🧵"
X Link 2021-07-16T19:43Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"My take on the macro investing themes in North American natural gas space coming into this fall's conference season. Miss anything"
X Link 2021-08-25T21:29Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Never go full hedge"
X Link 2021-09-01T20:28Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"In a parallel universe. Canada's PM just got off the plane from COP26 where he recommitted Canada's role in providing the globe the cleanest and least expensive oil and gas in order to get the world economy moving amid supply shortages that could cost lives this winter"
X Link 2021-11-02T22:08Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Top story to follow Omicron will be Euro energy crisis The long term investment implications are which geopolitically stable regions house the next decade of nat gas supply (Russia can't be trusted theme) NAM has Euro's back. $TOU $EQT $CHK $ARX $SWN are the core names of scale"
X Link 2021-12-21T20:53Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"*CHENIERE CEO SAYS COMPANY SOLD OUT OF LNG INTO THE 2040S Don't be sore build some more"
X Link 2022-03-07T16:55Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Who needs a windfall tax Oil and gas companies poured $48 billion into government coffers this year says RBC https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/who-needs-a-windfall-tax-oil-and-gas-companies-poured-48-billion-into-government-coffers-this-year-says-rbc https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/who-needs-a-windfall-tax-oil-and-gas-companies-poured-48-billion-into-government-coffers-this-year-says-rbc"
X Link 2022-07-22T18:18Z 15.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Trudeau doesn't see a business case for exporting LNG to Europe. I volunteer to frame one out. 🧵 https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/touting-clean-energy-pm-trudeau-questions-business-case-for-exporting-liquefied-natural-gas-to-europe-1.6037556 https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/touting-clean-energy-pm-trudeau-questions-business-case-for-exporting-liquefied-natural-gas-to-europe-1.6037556"
X Link 2022-08-23T16:58Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"I haven't seen a refresh on solar costs in a couple years. Wonder why"
X Link 2022-08-24T15:52Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Nations seeing a business case in LNG: USA going from [--] Bcfpd to [--] Bcfpd https://rbnenergy.com/blurred-lines-as-the-us-races-toward-30-bcf-lng-exports-what-could-it-mean-for-upstream-markets https://rbnenergy.com/blurred-lines-as-the-us-races-toward-30-bcf-lng-exports-what-could-it-mean-for-upstream-markets"
X Link 2022-08-24T16:58Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Steam engines power many Tesla cars today. 🧐 Wont be long before we view gasoline cars the same way we view steam engines today Wont be long before we view gasoline cars the same way we view steam engines today"
X Link 2022-09-12T21:57Z 15.4K followers, [--] engagements
"Excellent illustration of why backwardation (down sloping) is generally a signal for improving prompt crude prices and contango (upward sloping) usually results in worsening prices. Its not an intuitive concept and underscores that strips are not forecasts but storage spreads"
X Link 2022-10-08T00:20Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"BP acquires LFG for $4.1bn 16.5x EBITDA $683000000/boepd. Gents and lassies. I have a business plan"
X Link 2022-10-18T14:35Z 15.4K followers, [--] engagements
"We likely about to hit our first freeze off in Natural Gas this winter Freeze off variables - Effects wells that produce water (Bakken Permian STACK/SCOOP DJ SW Marc / Utica) vs dry basins (Haynesville NE Marcy) - Hits harder in unhardened basins (TX) - Intensity duration"
X Link 2022-12-16T16:20Z 15.4K followers, 23.6K engagements
"Nat Gas Thoughts Henry Hub was $6 now $3.90. What gives [--]. Weather. Its warm. Especially in places where a lot of people live (Tx NE) even Europe"
X Link 2023-01-03T19:04Z 15.4K followers, 48.6K engagements
"Coal to gas switching at pretty epic levels for this time of year. Is equating to 4-5 Bcfpd in additional year over year burns in natural gas power"
X Link 2023-04-21T14:08Z 15.4K followers, 27.3K engagements
"If this [---] gas rigs sticks next week i think we can mark the turning point in gas for 2023"
X Link 2023-05-12T17:59Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"A generalist investment memo in Energy. My take. 🧵 Opener - which energy source holds the best forward return outlook Selecting from renewable (wind / solar / hydro) oil gas nuclear & coal Which subset has the best S&D set up to provide for outsized investment returns"
X Link 2023-06-20T20:52Z 15.4K followers, 124.8K engagements
"*US TOTAL RIG COUNT DOWN [--] TO [---] - BAKER HUGHES SAYS I'm no genious but I think I see a pattern"
X Link 2023-06-23T17:09Z 15.4K followers, 24.9K engagements
"Natural gas just crossed below $2/mcf. In basin pricing is closer to $1.50 (threshold for economic curtailment for older / tier [--] assets on variable cost) Every time natural gas has dropped below $2 it and gas equites have had a rally higher in the following [--] months"
X Link 2024-02-07T15:53Z 15.4K followers, 37.3K engagements
"The returns numbers on the below signal Natural gas just crossed below $2/mcf. In basin pricing is closer to $1.50 (threshold for economic curtailment for older / tier [--] assets on variable cost) Every time natural gas has dropped below $2 it and gas equites have had a rally higher in the following [--] months. https://t.co/lD3XDuVV8D Natural gas just crossed below $2/mcf. In basin pricing is closer to $1.50 (threshold for economic curtailment for older / tier [--] assets on variable cost) Every time natural gas has dropped below $2 it and gas equites have had a rally higher in the following 12"
X Link 2024-02-08T15:57Z 15.4K followers, 76.5K engagements
"Power Thought GS dropped [--] AI / Power reports this morning (my cup overfloweth) and over the past [--] weeks we've seen over a dozen estimates from research houses and industry participants alike. If you want to take a law of large numbers approach the median expectation is for [--] Bcfpd of additional natural gas power burn by [----] which squares to effectively just the market share capture of the anticipated load growth. If gas can continue to increase market share (as it has in both coal switching regions but also greening regions as a key source of grid hardening) then we can cast our eyes"
X Link 2024-04-29T17:57Z 15.4K followers, 47.3K engagements
"Gas market fundamentals are giving us exactly what we need to see for a firm fall. Chart🧵 [----] demand is power led. [----] Demand will be LNG led. 26-30 will be both"
X Link 2024-06-03T17:51Z 15.4K followers, 29.1K engagements
"Just finished what might be the most bearish O&G commodity outlook I've ever read. Premise is 1) Asia not growing like it used to and OECD stagnent 2) Coal satisfying much of the marginal primary energy growth needed and is the energy security form of choice in Asia 3) Coal will push gas to lignet switching ($6 floating (50% gas downside); thats a $2 hhub implied 4) Gas will push oil displacement on transport mostly (-$5 vs crude forwards) Not well addressed is elasticity of demand and latent demand effect. Call me old fashioned but when fuels get cheap enterprising people and nations find"
X Link 2024-07-31T20:30Z 15.4K followers, 82.2K engagements
"$0.68 this Sunday marks the cheapest C$ since [----]. For energy exporters this FX move is a powerful offset to tariff costs"
X Link 2025-02-02T21:03Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"You can add another effective LNG plant to your US balances with the Mexican power generation build out. [---] Bcfpd by [----] and it looks to be US exports needed for supply. Credit NBF Criterion"
X Link 2025-02-11T15:41Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"First LNG shipment from Canada in July says Petronas https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/745830 https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/745830"
X Link 2025-02-25T17:35Z 15.4K followers, 19.2K engagements
"Quite a week for the shale productivity discussion Travis Stice in chorus with Scott Sheffield at CERA the best days are behind US shale and supply costs are going up. Oil Tier [--] exhaustion. What about gas - Haynesville is showing some age - Appalachia still not clear if we've tipped; we did finish off the best of what Cabot had (best gas shale ever drilled) - Montney continues to trend strongly on productivity with costs still improving - Deep Basin flat productivity with increasing liquids. Kimmeridge paper sees Montney as 2nd best play with depth behind the Delaware (and ahead of midland)."
X Link 2025-05-06T21:24Z 15.4K followers, 11.5K engagements
"To quote the boss lets use whats between our ears to better develop whats beneath our feet. When you develop a resource the resource helps pay taxes build schools provide wealth to the nation. Its a gift. Lets not waste it. The challenges facing Canada are not small but we will meet them with focus and determination. That is how Canadians have built the best country in the world. That is how we will build it to be even better. The challenges facing Canada are not small but we will meet them with focus and determination. That is how Canadians have built the best country in the world. That is"
X Link 2025-05-21T22:56Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"*LNG CANADA SAYS COOLDOWN OF FIRST PRODUCTION UNIT HAS STARTED Community Notification: New Flaring Activity A new flaring activity associated with the start-up of Train [--] will commence Monday June [--]. During this activity the flare height will vary between [--] metres and [--] metres. We anticipate intermittent visible emissions (black smoke) from the flare"
X Link 2025-06-16T16:42Z 15.4K followers, 26.1K engagements
"Best way to track LNG Canada so far hasn't been Willow Creek or boats its been the Sunset Creek West Nomination Schedule. How does one pull this you ask Link: Filter Sunset Creek/West Sum of Requested Nominations You're getting Gj per day (1.05 conversion to mcf). https://noms.wei-pipeline.com/reports/ci_report/launch.phpmenuitem=200 https://noms.wei-pipeline.com/reports/ci_report/launch.phpmenuitem=200"
X Link 2025-07-08T21:03Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"AECO Catalyst Path 🧵 First off why has July / August been such a mess. Export outages is 8/10ths of the story weak intrabasin demand (it's been cold and rainy) is 2/10ths. [--] Bcfpd of typically relied upon export capacity is offline (see GTN [--] vs [--] chart below as an example). EGAT Great Lakes ect have also had temporary outages that generally were greater than last year. We should be 'fully back' in October. Narrative has been "too much production on in advance of the start up of LNG Canada". Facts are more "1 Bcfpd of export capacity offline masking any of the early plant start up"
X Link 2025-08-12T16:14Z 15.4K followers, 24.5K engagements
"Interesting in Gas this Week (1) AECO starting to reflect the tighter basin dynamics with LNG Canada pulling [--] Bcfpd (1/2 way) and production growth in no position to keep up. Personal view is we see pricing go from $3.15/gj today towards $4/gj in the coming 2-3 months. (2) Google can build datacenters powered by gas with CCUS. We've had lots of 'un named' projects so far its good to see some 'heads up' announcements. (3) PD bringing high spec rigs back to Canada. The banks are up here the PE firms are doing their work the rigs are coming back. Looking forward to seeing capital pour in and"
X Link 2025-10-24T14:20Z 15.4K followers, 12K engagements
"2022 Energy Investment Theme Ideas: 🧵 #1: Quality vs Beta Beta had "a year" last year with a big re-rate in commodity prices. Unless you are in the $150 WTI camp; [----] is probably a "good but flat" price deck so rate of change is all about FCF capture. https://x.com/JamieHeard5/status/1432379645190619142s=20 Example 1: $CNQ ("Quality") vs $MEG ("Beta"). A) Quality typically outperforms beta long term (positive intercept) B) Beta O/P on real run ups (30%+ 6mo moves) C) Quality wins on dips D) Stasis favors quality (slightly) https://t.co/F2T9xQeEcT"
X Link 2021-12-15T18:41Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"The moves in the back are massive. I'm a broken drum on this but it matters. Move front month up $1 and you get a quarterly beat. Move the whole curve up $1 and you've just changed decades of return on capital & a stock 2x. The front moves the multiple. The back moves the NAV"
X Link 2022-03-31T22:04Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"$6 gas in April. Strong to very strong. Couple of reasons why: [--]. Production has been super weak. Not only are we not making new highs in some areas (marcellus) we are struggling against the [----] comp"
X Link 2022-04-05T14:53Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Alberta is forecasted to get a historic inflow of royalty income. This time let's not do Ralf bucks. Let's take a page from Norway and do a wealth fund. Compound $200bn (a [--] year look at the excess income) and we can dividend $10bn to society yearly without hitting principle"
X Link 2022-07-11T13:48Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"RBC doing the real work on Canadian O&G tax outlook. Hey Canada next [----] bridges are on us"
X Link 2022-07-20T13:52Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"The inventory depletion theme is not a down the road theme. It's a right now theme. "10-15 years of inventory" will prompt action today. COG sold a year ago and now reserves written down 32%. CTRA today"
X Link 2022-11-03T21:38Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"I think we are entering an era in Energy where the greatest performance will be had in owning the largest company's. Some qualitative thoughts and some quantitative thoughts. 🧵"
X Link 2022-11-11T22:31Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"I petition that because many E&P companies are now taxable we drop EV/EBITDA as a reference multiple in the comp sheets and transition to EV/DACF multiples FCF/EV yields and years of inventory studies as the ABC's of referenced valuation figures. #endEBITDA"
X Link 2022-11-17T20:17Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"A friendly reminder to invest in your natural gas supply and infrastructure this decade. California (PG&E) just traded $75/mcf in the 'balance of month' (Balmo) contract and is shattering all time records daily in cash. Most expensive gas on the planet"
X Link 2022-12-09T19:13Z 15.4K followers, [---] engagements
"Natural gas is at $2.85/mcf this morning at HHUB. Adjusting for the inflation experienced over the last [--] years in real $'s it is $2.35/mcf. Historically we see a meaningful supply response in the $2.25-$2.50 range and outright curtailments below $2.00 - $2.25"
X Link 2023-01-26T14:59Z 15.4K followers, 30.4K engagements
"In basin Haynesville pricing slipped below $2 today to $1.86/mcf. In [----] "real terms" that's closer to $1.25/mcf. TPH 'proactively' cut their CRK model to maintenance to "keep close to FCF neutral" CRK Q4 - Feb [--] CHK & SWN Q4 - Feb [--] All eyes on activity"
X Link 2023-02-06T20:25Z 15.4K followers, 35.8K engagements
"$PXD for $RRC rumour on the tape. Would make a [--] bcfpd gas business proforma. $6.5bn deal. Every oil company needs a second chapter and for many of them its going to be to become a gas company. EOG is doing it organically. PXD is replacing the EF they sold with Marcy"
X Link 2023-02-24T19:51Z 15.4K followers, 88.8K engagements
"CA not willing to expand natural gas pipeline infrastructure Reminds me of Boston. Wait a second. Now hear me out"
X Link 2023-03-01T20:12Z 15.4K followers, 21.7K engagements
"I liked RRC's spin on storage in their Q and deck thinking about it in terms of days supply. Bears would flag that days does not equal capacity and you can hit max storage (4.1 Tcf - tho that is a debate as well) and puke on price with a days chart that looks fine But the days supply flags a really important point. We are growing supply and demand in North America and we are not growing storage. Pre LNG build out 2025-2030 this creates a very volatile system; storage itself can service less and less of a "tail event" bullish or bearish and so price has to do a lot more work (aka realize"
X Link 2023-04-26T15:09Z 15.4K followers, 49.3K engagements
"The hayensville curtailment is getting really meaningful. [---] Bcfpd from peak. While gas in plays like appalachia have a history of curtailement this is brand new behaviour from the Hayensville folk; wiping out all of the YTD growth in [--] weeks. Perryville $1.97/mcf"
X Link 2023-06-08T14:18Z 15.4K followers, 47.7K engagements
"The solar duck curve (net load) + the [--] price curve (nearly valueless power sold mid day) lead to a simple economic conclusion. Solar installation in increasingly solar saturated ISO's is an increasingly valueless energy addition. Batteries are now essential adding cost modest load shift (4 hrs) and no seasonal benefit. This highlights the dramatic difference between LCOE (levelized cost of energy) and ELCC (effective load carrying capacity). Batteries are only moving the energy dispatch [--] hrs and provide no seasonal benefit (cold winter night) Additional solar instalation today inclusive of"
X Link 2023-06-22T16:10Z 15.4K followers, 33.2K engagements
"Alright NGL twitter. Make us all smarter. I think I get some of this cross product move (sympathy to WTI Shell PA cracker less deep cut runs vs shallow cut gas rewarding heat rate in June creates July tightness) but would enjoy community commentary on this NGL move"
X Link 2023-07-20T15:32Z 15.4K followers, 42K engagements
"Re NGL's Mr Alan Engberg enters the chat on the RRC Call. "Yeah. Thanks Roger. This is Alan Engberg. I'm -- I manage our Liquids Marketing Business. I'll give it a shot give you some background on what the -- what's been behind some of the recent strength that we've seen in ethane. I think I would start by saying ethane fundamentals have been pretty tight for a while now. We've mentioned it in prior calls but the days supply hit five-year lows last year and we've been hugging those five-year lows all through this year swap. So when the market is tight like that there's really not a lot of"
X Link 2023-07-25T22:02Z 15.4K followers, 33.9K engagements
"Not investment advice do you own due diligence. This morning TC trades at a 8.3% dividend and is in a 15% [--] day down draft. Someone big is out and they are willing to be splashy about it. You don't get that many opportunities to ride a 8% investment grade coupon + growth kicker into a peaking interest rate environment (aka headwinds are max right now) with the largest natural gas export boom in North America's history on the doorstep"
X Link 2023-07-28T14:16Z 15.4K followers, 122.3K engagements
"On the back of two weeks of talking with investors and energy companies I'm struck with a couple of themes in Energy this fall. 1) Some trepedation on the 'path' for gas in the next [--] months but a lot of confidence in the bullish fundamentals for 2025-2028; equites are thought to be focusing on the latter. If LNG is post October '24 we probably have a sloppy '24 summer. If incremental LNG feedgas arrives in time to consume meaningful gas Sept/Oct '24 that clears the way for the whole '24 summer strip to rally. 2) Deflation talked about in June is now flat and labour + rail rates / sand are"
X Link 2023-09-15T19:42Z 15.4K followers, 41.8K engagements
"Fun slide and call commentary from EQT. The thickness of the returns bar tells you a lot about the time to payback on incremental growth investment. If you break even at $2.50 but need $3.50 to squeak out a 10% return on EV your response function to a change in natural gas prices is sloped very low. I'll admit I'm head scratching a bit on F with the lowest cost of supply and 2nd highest cost of returns. Figuring this is CRK with a really cheap operating cost structure but the least efficienct capital cost structure. Punchline is less growth and a less responsive supply function to higher gas"
X Link 2023-10-26T18:43Z 15.4K followers, 32.2K engagements
"Ill admit. Sometimes I struggle to see a sustainable bullish path for crude with [--] mmbbls of spare capacity squeeky wheels in the group and Petrobras slamming the capex hammer down. Lots of different ways for a contrived run to $100/bbl crude to get supplied. Range bound $70-80 seems like the best and base case. Rebuilt one of my first Commodity Context OPEC+ charts for the upcoming release of my new OPEC Data Deck. https://t.co/ZHdFV51lve Rebuilt one of my first Commodity Context OPEC+ charts for the upcoming release of my new OPEC Data Deck. https://t.co/ZHdFV51lve"
X Link 2023-11-30T04:53Z 15.4K followers, 53.3K engagements
"Gas Bull Bear Bear - Golden Pass 1H25 vs 2H24 prior - Winter what winter - Production outperformance in L48 Oct/Nov; how sticky - Major's Permian activity ramp in '24. unhelpful Bull - Haynesville production [--] day moving average rolls to a negative slope for first time since July - $2.50 gas sows seeds for diciplined E&P guidance discussion in Jan/Feb - Post technical breakdown and multi-week beatdown reflectivity off of good news (weather supply disruption / freeze off) skewed to a relief rally - Euro industral demand finally firming; more evidence of APAC appetite for incremental LNG"
X Link 2023-12-07T20:11Z 15.4K followers, 20.3K engagements
"Fresh off the Goldman energy conference with a couple of impressions. Everyone getting their homework done on gas. Nobody wants to miss the upward lurch to [----] fundamentals but when to be fully invested is a debate. My sense is hedge funds have covered but new longs are yet to be meaningfully initiated. Long only who werent in for the ride in [--] are nibbling or waiting now. NGLs are the most pessimistic sub market. Crude seemed more apathetic. Gas operator updates will include some incremental activity reductions at the margins but on mass these are nudges. Interest felt really high. Full"
X Link 2024-01-05T20:10Z 15.4K followers, 117.2K engagements
"Last one. Every year in the last [--] years we went below $2 on NYMEX natural gas we were over $3 in October The returns numbers on the below signal https://t.co/dq034CQV0U The returns numbers on the below signal https://t.co/dq034CQV0U"
X Link 2024-02-09T15:44Z 15.4K followers, 24.5K engagements
"CHK "Chesapeake is currently operating nine rigs (five in the Haynesville and four in the Marcellus) and four frac crews (two in each basin). Given current market dynamics the company plans to defer placing wells on production while reducing rig and completion activity. The company will drop a rig in the Haynesville and Marcellus in March and around mid-year respectively and a frac crew in each basin in March. These activity levels will be maintained through year end. Deferring new well production and completion activity will build short-cycle capital efficient productive capacity which can"
X Link 2024-02-20T21:19Z 15.4K followers, 43.5K engagements
"It was great to sit down with @trevor_rose_ . Thank you very much for having me. We recorded only a week ago and already we're getting some of the catalysts we were looking for $TOU New interview w/ @TourmalineOil VP @JamieHeard5 on: $2 Natural Gas Marketing Ingenuity & Why Quality Source Rock is Essential https://t.co/fwCHdk5WW2 #EFT https://t.co/J4eF9IBiku $TOU New interview w/ @TourmalineOil VP @JamieHeard5 on: $2 Natural Gas Marketing Ingenuity & Why Quality Source Rock is Essential https://t.co/fwCHdk5WW2 #EFT https://t.co/J4eF9IBiku"
X Link 2024-02-22T15:24Z 15.4K followers, 20.5K engagements
"Update on "what happens if I buy gas equities when gas goes below $2". So far we are rhyming well with history. The returns numbers on the below signal https://t.co/dq034CQV0U The returns numbers on the below signal https://t.co/dq034CQV0U"
X Link 2024-02-26T22:46Z 15.4K followers, 45.6K engagements
"Natural gas catalyst path 🐂 and 🐻 March: Freeport "we barely know ya" reramp🐂 Production curtailment and activity degrades🐂 salts filling 🐻 April/May/June: Start of LNG maintenance season 🐻 Salts full 🐻 OFS pricing softens (does that mean E&P re-ramp (no))🐻 Production slips to YoY deficit🐂 low LNG pricing starts to inflect seaborn demand higher 🐂 July/August/Sept: Production starts to look like its really struggling (98 bcfpd)🐂 Another year of strong power burn and first year of strong industrial burn in a while (US and Europe)🐂 LNG start ups being or on the cusp of beginning 🐂"
X Link 2024-03-14T21:18Z 15.4K followers, 13.4K engagements
"Most common thematic natural gas question today is what will data center energy consumption mean for domestic natural gas power burn consumption. Some thoughts 🧵👇"
X Link 2024-03-26T19:15Z 15.4K followers, 73K engagements
"HAL Conference Call Gas Highlights Gas Demand / AI In the U.S. after stable electricity demand for nearly two decades we now expect it to grow more than 15% by [----]. Today over 40% of United States electricity is supplied by natural gas and we expect strong demand for natural gas as a base fuel well into the future. The world requires more energy not less and I'm more convinced than ever that oil and gas will fill a critical role in the global energy mix for decades to come. My outlook is confirmed by our customers' multiyear activity plans across multiple markets and asset types. Question"
X Link 2024-04-23T19:48Z 15.4K followers, 19.3K engagements
"Gas basin modeling thought. We know a part of the decline since March is curtailment not native declines. Given activity has not inflected (in fact its rolled further over the last three months) it might be a reasonable estimate to project the pre-curtailment decline forward as a proxy for when we are back to true basin declines again. With this method in the Haynesville we transition back to true basin declines in June at [---] Bcfpd at a high decline. In Appalachia its more likely this fall at [----] Bcfpd at a low decline. The punchline is you can bring back curtailed volume really quickly. In"
X Link 2024-05-17T17:22Z 15.4K followers, 23.2K engagements
"All good things *ALBERTA PREMIER DANIELLE SMITH SPEAKS IN CALGARY *ALBERTA SHOULD ASPIRE TO DOUBLE OIL AND GAS OUTPUT: SMITH *ALBERTA WORKING GROUP IS LOOKING TO ATTRACT DATA CENTERS:SMITH *DECISION ON LNG CANADA PHASE [--] IS EXPECTED SOON: SMITH"
X Link 2024-06-11T16:50Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Dislocation Opportunity Front month AECO and AECO cash have been weak as local storage injections portend potential brimming of local storage later this summer and fall (price is hunting for some curtailment from high cost players). This makes sense. It also cleans up with heat (local cooling demand) LNG Canada first gas and incremental flows (anticipated this summer) and operator activity shaping - summer/fall catalysts. AECO [--] is 'dislocated' but fundamental price is working to solve the problem. AECO [----] is dislocated and not fundamental. AECO basis at $1.45 and AECO at C$2.77 (US$2.02)"
X Link 2024-06-20T17:55Z 15.4K followers, 14.7K engagements
"US power demand going from strong to very strong This year was supposed to be "a tough comp" for gas burn as last year was quite hot and this year had a lot of renewable capacity coming on stream. Instead we are averaging [--] Bcfpd in power adds through May and June and weather looks very supportive for July/August as well. To put it in perspective if we can grind [--] bcfpd of burn adds on average annually thats the equivilant of an extra LNG export plant being added every two years that nobody was counting on even [--] months ago. 3-4% annual domestic + export growth moving towards 4-5% growth. 5%"
X Link 2024-07-08T16:12Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Reasons [----] gas prices could bottom this week. 1) Plaquemines start up 2) Freeport not as broken as feared 3) Haynesville declines resume 4) Heat returns 5) Technically we've bottomed here before; and who is excited to hedge a $3.30 CAL25 Selling pressure should be thin; after reportedly being uniquely heavy in June/July on some big structured programs. 6) Q2 E&P commentary should be about continued contrition 7) Canadian 'heat off's' take the edge of imports to NYMEX 8) We've been straight line lower for [--] weeks in a row the commodity and the equities are technically weak and ready for a"
X Link 2024-07-16T13:39Z 15.4K followers, 10.9K engagements
"Wrapping up two weeks of marketing and have some general impressions on energy investors mindset. - the oil outlook is frightening some with a 10-20% chance of a repeat of black thanksgiving (OPEC fights for market share again) and a 80-90% chance of okay pricing in a highly managed and more and more contentious S&D with OPEC conceding share to Brazil Guyana and to some extent shale. Canada oil growth also hitting some meaningful adds over the next [--] years. Saying all this stocks are reasonably priced and flat is still a good return for most. - hard to find a 1H25 gas bull easy to find a 2H25"
X Link 2024-09-18T03:00Z 15.4K followers, 23.6K engagements
"Biggest one day gas gain in over a month out the forward strip delivered (in my opinion) by the Constellation / Microsoft deal that restarts the Three Mile Island Nuclear plant with a $1.6bn PPA. Why would a Nuke restart get the gas strip and (some) gas stocks going My thought: This PPA is another important datapoint that the $'s and attention in growing power production in the US to feed data centers and general electrical demand increases. This nuke will come on by the end of the decade (optimistically). With the same coin to just restart this Nuke you could build a [----] MW gas power plant"
X Link 2024-09-20T18:37Z 15.4K followers, 44.1K engagements
"LNG Glut thought experiment. The world produces and consumes [---] Bcfpd of gas every day (give or take). LNG is currently is [--] Bcfpd of this [---] Bcfpd balancing market. By the end of the decade LNG will be closer to [--] Bcfpd. Assuming the established 3% global gas CAGR stays roughly on trend the total gas market will be in the mid 400's (450-460 Bcfpd). First of all on its head this doesn't suggest a big over supply. LNG capacity is coming on at 5-10 Bcfpd per year (NAM + Qatar + Mozambique ect) each year; [---] Bcfpd growing at 2-3% is 8-12 Bcfpd of growth every year. The IEA pegs next year at"
X Link 2024-10-10T17:24Z 15.4K followers, 18.6K engagements
"Weather and continued discipline out of US gas production has summer [--] up 30c m/m and winter 25/26 over $4.50. Most producers will make great profits at these prices (which of course is always the worry) but capital discipline and the huge wall of LNG and power demand on the [--] year horizon has the potential to extend this current buoyancy and firm pricing for years to come. Merry Christmas and a happy new years"
X Link 2024-12-31T02:22Z 15.4K followers, 10.7K engagements
"Make that two LNG trains ramping now. CCL Stage [--] popping Corpus to new highs. Plaquemines also at new highs this morning. We also recoverd [--] Bcf of weather demand over the weekend sending NYMEX to $3.60 this morning. Freeze offs just starting to show up"
X Link 2025-01-06T15:22Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Fresh off some early January marketing and some thoughts: Investors seem nervous on the oil outlook but engaged and optimistic on the gas outlook. We have started [----] off with a bang and within the last [--] weeks we've had weather Plaquemines and CCL [--] all add significant demand into the '25 balances. I think the larger thematic emerging from the January conferences (to date) is the temperance continued to be expressed by US operators around what it would take for growth. Haynesville operators specifically have started throwing out the "$5" handle as a strip they get more interested in growth"
X Link 2025-01-09T19:44Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Any American looking at Canadian E&P gas levered stocks today gets to pencil in a 7% return on C$ normalization + a 20% to 40% return on Canadian vs US performance disparity normalization since the election. Tariffs are not a big grind for gas co's (credit TD chart below) AECO is upside on top"
X Link 2025-01-16T16:29Z 15.4K followers, 10.3K engagements
"LNG prices have moved 70% higher over the last [--] months to US$15 for both JKM (Asia) and TTF (European) gas. Front month TTF is +$0.80 this morning as weather and geopolitics continue to tighten balances and outlook. For those that get paid in Canadian peso's this is C$22; a level not seen since the Ukraine war spike in '22"
X Link 2025-01-29T16:21Z 15.4K followers, 10.9K engagements
"Another [---] Bcfpd of demand created. These are adding up. Energy Transfer and CloudBurst Sign Agreement for Natural Gas Supply to Data Center Project in Central Texas - https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250207943457/en/Energy-Transfer-and-CloudBurst-Sign-Agreement-for-Natural-Gas-Supply-to-Data-Center-Project-in-Central-Texasutm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork"
X Link 2025-02-10T15:01Z 15.4K followers, 12.4K engagements
"Interesting this week in Gas: MS raises 2H25 NYMEX price deck to $5.25 and [----] to $5 on the back of very fast Plaquemines ramp and thin production adds NBF sees datacenter demand adding 4-6 Bcfpd in US and 0.9-1.4 bcfpd in AB by [----] JP adds up Turbine orders and sees [---] Bcfpd of power growth by [----] Enverus figures Citadel paid $2mm/loc (adj for PDP) for Paloma Bernstein joins the party of brokers calling for oversupplied LNG market in 26/27; tight market emerging again in 29/30; I personally am excited to see what kind of APAC demand we get when we even sniff single digit LNG pricing."
X Link 2025-03-21T22:18Z 15.4K followers, 12K engagements
"5 Quick market thoughts this Friday and thinking if a "Covid playbook" has some use here: The more dramatic the retaliation tariffs are the more urgency there is to come to a solution. 34% China tariffs with no loopholes strikes me as dramatic. Europe/UK to follow(). The worse it looks the shorter it will likely last. What was the last sharp severe but quickly bouncing pull back we had Covid. The peak to trough drawdown on the S&P is 17%. Covid was 33%. "Tariff Trantrum = 1/2 a Covid" It feels too soon to declare a bottom and many tech stocks are still above their [----] lows but when 20%+"
X Link 2025-04-04T21:16Z 15.4K followers, 17.7K engagements
"The Haynesville is "supposed" to be a [--] bcfpd+ growth basin Since 3Q24 growth expectations continue to thin while gas prices have risen What gives - Consolidation discipline different private strategies - Tier [--] drilling lowers productivity and raises dispatch supply costs"
X Link 2025-04-17T21:26Z 15.4K followers, 14.6K engagements
"Fun implied stat. McCoy's turbine report refreshed. Q1 gas power turbine orders hit [--] GW (+36% YoY). In gas consumption terms thats [--] Bcfpd. Annualize that (and assume no further acceleration) thats [--] Bcfpd gas consumption growth from just global power load. Something to weigh against a view of global LNG glut end of decade. Credit JPM"
X Link 2025-05-22T14:20Z 15.4K followers, 14.6K engagements
"In gas this week: - Last week of cool weather (and big injections) with summer heat on the doorstep and trending higher than normal for the balance of June - LNG Canada scheduled to receive its first vessel for loading on June 29th (coming from Malaysia) - CAL26 NYMEX finishes the week at $4.45 at YTD highs - AECO cash popping after a week of EGAT maintenance (5 day storage crimp); CAL [--] AECO at C$3.38/mcf. If basis normalizes towards US$1 (vs US$1.80) AECO upside to C$4.70/mcf from here - I think we see $4 CAL26 level in the next [--] months - AESO allocates [---] GW to datacenters for 26/27;"
X Link 2025-06-06T17:16Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Narrative: US gas power burn is underperforming this year Reality: Power burn Bcf per CDD is = '24 despite more coal burn and renewable participation. CDD's are down vs last year (YTD); August looks to extend this gap. Weather adjusted this is just as strong as '23 and '24 and [--] Tcf YTD over the [--] year average"
X Link 2025-07-29T20:49Z 15.4K followers, 14.6K engagements
"Mitsubishi doubling gas turbine manufacturing capacity up from 30% plans prior is an important macro datapoint. Expansion announcements like this are key to taking yearly global gas demand growth from linear to exponential. https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/mitsubishi-heavy-to-double-gas-turbine-capacity-as-demand-soars https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/mitsubishi-heavy-to-double-gas-turbine-capacity-as-demand-soars"
X Link 2025-09-02T21:41Z 15.4K followers, [----] engagements
"Interesting in Gas This Week Alberta PPL / META data center firming up; this will consume a lot of gas (particularly on the AESO reserve allocation) drive a lot of investment in Alberta and points a road map for many more project opportunities to come. We think the AB gas consumption opportunity through brownfield restarts and greenfield installs could exceed [--] bcfpd by the end of the decade. This is a great opportunity for the province and the industry to bring capital into the basin. Link: MidOcean Petronas Deal. News articles point to a consideration of US$3bn. This didn't get much press"
X Link 2025-10-03T21:42Z 15.4K followers, 28.1K engagements
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/creator/twitter::JamieHeard5