# ![@Jamie1Coutts Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::317840597.png) @Jamie1Coutts Jamie Coutts CMT

Jamie Coutts CMT suggests that recent market conditions are favorable for owning risk assets, including crypto, as liquidity and debt imbalances are improving. He notes that Bitcoin and high-quality crypto assets already bottomed in 2022-2023. Coutts is predicting a new all-time high for Bitcoin and top [---] crypto market cap by May.

### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::317840597/interactions)
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### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  68.93% [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  48.54% [currencies](/list/currencies)  6.8% [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  4.85% [stocks](/list/stocks)  2.91% [exchanges](/list/exchanges)  1.94% [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  1.94% [countries](/list/countries)  0.97% [financial services](/list/financial-services)  0.97% [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  0.97%

**Social topic influence**
[bitcoin](/topic/bitcoin) #5816, [liquidity](/topic/liquidity) #1724, [in the](/topic/in-the) 19.42%, [crypto](/topic/crypto) 18.45%, [bullish](/topic/bullish) 14.56%, [money](/topic/money) 9.71%, [market](/topic/market) 9.71%, [cycle](/topic/cycle) #1871, [bearish](/topic/bearish) #358, [debt](/topic/debt) 7.77%

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@realvision](/creator/undefined) [@raoulgmi](/creator/undefined) [@caprioleio](/creator/undefined) [@intocryptoverse](/creator/undefined) [@cburniske](/creator/undefined) [@julienbittel](/creator/undefined) [@andreassteno](/creator/undefined) [@bitformanceteam](/creator/undefined) [@bitteljulien](/creator/undefined) [@milkroad](/creator/undefined) [@zilliquack](/creator/undefined) [@godfred_xcuz](/creator/undefined) [@chriskendo11](/creator/undefined) [@zorro9003](/creator/undefined) [@volmexfinance](/creator/undefined) [@bowtiedstocks](/creator/undefined) [@bitformance](/creator/undefined) [@artemisxyz](/creator/undefined) [@suinetwork](/creator/undefined) [@elonmusk](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)](/topic/coinbase) [Ethereum (ETH)](/topic/ethereum) [Bitcoin Gold (BTG)](/topic/bitcoin-gold)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"I used to wave away quantum computing (QC) risks to Bitcoin as far-fetched. I dont anymore. The usual pushback goes like this: QC isnt a threat for years and if it is then the whole financial system is in trouble anyway. That line of nihilistic thinking may be comforting to some but it misses the point. Big banks arent sitting idle. Theyre already investing in quantum research building internal teams partnering with QC developers and thinking about how to harden their systems over time. Theyre not quantum-safe today but theyre not starting from scratch either. Bitcoin is different. It can"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2013724046379122865)  2026-01-20T21:23Z 51.7K followers, 44.9K engagements


"Aggregate ETF flows are not buying the dip. Net institutional demand is coming almost entirely from a shrinking group of Treasury-style buyers with remaining balance-sheet capacity. Thats not sustainable under continued pressure. A durable Bitcoin bottom likely requires these actors to reverse their positioning not just slow their selling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2018537795149877563)  2026-02-03T04:11Z 51.7K followers, 49.9K engagements


"1/ The BTC crash will prompt deep self-reflection. Here's mine as I review the last [--] months from the peak. Price action was clear from the $90K breakdown in January. But it was back in September when I first saw the potential for turbulence: At the time I wrote: I expected a Fed pivot. We got one (end of QT "Reserves Management"). I expected the business cycle to inflect higher. It has (ISM [--] 52.6). I expected a "normal" 25-30% pullback. We are now in a -50% pullback. BTC is a core position but in Sept and October I derisked some peripheral positions. I could have done alot more. My"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2019574552536522989)  2026-02-06T00:51Z 51.7K followers, 422.8K engagements


"Capitulation Watch: Three Signs the Washout Is Getting Real [--]. Bitcoin implied volatility (BVIV) at [-----] closing in on the FTX-collapse peak of [---] (h/t @volmexfinance) [--]. 8th largest Coinbase trading day ever by USD value ($3.34B). At $62K that's roughly [-----] BTC changing hands in a single session. In unit terms this likely ranks even higher than the USD figure suggests since many of the top USD volume days occurred at significantly higher prices. [--]. Daily RSI at [-----] at or below March [----] COVID crash lows Margin calls are firing. Forced liquidations are likely still working through the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2019594715654701345)  2026-02-06T02:11Z 51.7K followers, 57.3K engagements


"This week had it all. The DXY saw its 4th largest negative 3-day move--massively liquidity-positive. Just as Bitcoin nuked and had its worst Feb in a decade. Meanwhile in altcoin land the Top [---] crypto index puked one more time. The chart shows that [---] days of New Lows hit 47% a hallmark of capitulation in a bull cycle. The stage is set for a new all-time high in Bitcoin and Top [---] aggregate market cap by May"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1897580297266581543)  2025-03-06T09:29Z 51.7K followers, 259.1K engagements


"Weekly BTC is flashing a triple bearish RSI divergencemomentum is bleeding. Thats why I keep talking about the next liquidity impulse from central banks. Ive seen this movie in equities: divergences flagged fragility into LTCM [--] the GFC in [--] (I was covering Asia thenspotting it made that year) and again in early [----]. The pattern isnt a sell signal by itself; its a warning that the trends engine is losing power. The resolution comes from the macro. Bitcoin is a liquidity asset. If policymakers open the taps the uptrend resumes. If they dont the trend is at risk of rolling over. Takeaway:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1962849740665893347)  2025-09-02T12:07Z 51.7K followers, 184.2K engagements


"Once agent activity scales each one is a source of round-the-clock organic demand for blockspace. Up to now utility has been based primarily on speculation. AI is the productive use case. Blockchains are the economic substrate. Everyone talks stablecoins and tokenisation (incl me). But these are known knowns. Probably priced in in the short term (while severely underpriced in the long term). Permissionless AI on permissionless money rails That gets discussed but I don't think that use case is priced in at all and it's moving faster than the humans who can't pass a basic innovation bill"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2018314838385348622)  2026-02-02T13:25Z 51.7K followers, 13.9K engagements


"Crypto's [----] scorecard reveals a two-speed economy. Utility grew through the drawdown: stablecoins +50% settlement +18% P2P volumes +31% apps +36%. Speculation collapsed: chain fees -77% transactions -51% revenue -49% DAUs -16%. While not for the first time (2022 was similar) utility diverges from speculation in a downturn. The rails kept growing. The marginal speculator left for AI. The problem: blockchains are still priced on speculative throughput. That's the revenue that pays the bills and it fell off a cliff. The fix requires bringing more assets on-chain: tokenised equities fixed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2021185462128476636)  2026-02-10T11:32Z 51.7K followers, 44.7K engagements


"This would appear to be a reasonable time as any to own risk assets as the imbalance between debt and liquidity reverts. If the liquidity-to-debt ratio is only bottoming out now why did Bitcoin (and some of the higher-quality crypto assets) bottom in 2022/23 It's not the absolute levels that matter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1922610790814912530)  2025-05-14T11:11Z 51.7K followers, 39.4K engagements


"@bowtiedstocks At least in Stasi Germany you didnt have to listen to these feeble minded tyrants. Modern Australia is pathetic"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2021406087501742531)  2026-02-11T02:09Z 51.7K followers, [----] engagements


"In a debt-based fractional reserve financial system the money supply must continually expand to support the outstanding debt. Otherwise everything will collapse. This is the natural state. #Bitcoin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1823333939882451123)  2024-08-13T12:21Z 51.7K followers, 39.4K engagements


"US Dollar Cycles & #Bitcoin Bull mkts. The trend support line is arbitrary. The point is that $BTC experiences the highest velocity upside move when the dollar breaks lower. If the DXY is weakening from here it's being coordinated by the Fed and global liquidity is being injected https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1823333939882451123 https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1823333939882451123"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1823855262639468887)  2024-08-14T22:52Z 51.7K followers, 35.6K engagements


"The central banks are capitulating the liquidity spigots are opening and #Bitcoin is about to go much higher. My composite global liquidity momentum model (MSI) has provided the first Bullish regime signal since November [----]. Recall that Bitcoin rallied 75% from Nov to April before the regime flipped Bearish. I posted this at the time; Over the past month; the BoJ and the PBoC have added $400B & $97B respectively; the broad global money base (credit) has expanded by $1.2T which has been significantly aided by a sharp decline of the US dollar. This suggests that it is coordinated with the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1824053788027851175)  2024-08-15T12:01Z 51.7K followers, 161.3K engagements


"Unless something fundamentally has changed we are entering what @RaoulGMI refers to as the 🍌zone or what I would describe as #Bitcoin batshit season"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1828044742682141108)  2024-08-26T12:20Z 51.7K followers, 58.3K engagements


"#crypto has taken a pounding over the past six months as the @bitformance Top [---] equal weight index chart below shows. -55% pullbacks in line with the previous [--] cycles. The market also rallied hard [--] months prior (+241%). For traders the price will need to break out of downtrends but for allocators the risk/reward is favourable for adding into select assets at these levels. Reasons MarketBreadth Liquidity and Fundamentals🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1836192082127655274)  2024-09-17T23:54Z 51.7K followers, 211.7K engagements


"So the Chinese cut the RRR adding $113 billion of liquidity support to the equity market potentially setting up a 'stock stabilization fund' and will lower borrowing costs on as much as $5.3 trillion in mortgages and easing rules for second-home purchases. The bottom is in for global central bank liquidity for this cycle. Sit back and watch the other CBs fall into line. In a credit-based fiat fractional reserve system debasement is a feature not a bug. #Bitcoin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1838472932588425632)  2024-09-24T06:57Z 51.7K followers, 27.3K engagements


"#Crypto capital flows are favouring #Sui Sui's net flows this year hit $737.6M 2nd highest among Alt-L1s after Solana's $1.1B. On a relative basis Suis inflows are 18% of its market cap while Solana's are 2%a 9x difference Ethereum leads outflows across the crypto ecosystem mainly to L2s but some capital is spilling over to other L1s. Sui is the top recipient with 92.9% of its inflows bridged from Ethereum and 5.3% from Solana. Net flows are akin to a blockchain network's capital accountincreasing net flows signals competitiveness and confidence much like a nation's capital markets. A tenuous"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1839089759391769039)  2024-09-25T23:49Z 51.7K followers, 71.6K engagements


"Changes in Global Money Supply explain about 80% of the change in #Bitcoin price. Global money supply has broken out to new ATHs $107 Trillion. Unsurprisingly expanding the monetary base puts upward pressure on asset prices and erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies. At this point the liquidity meme has become ingrained in the minds of millions creating a self-reinforcing cycle. As more fiat money floods the economy more capital is funnelled into anti-debasement assets like #Bitcoin. With increasing demand for Bitcoin and its capped supply the price is bound to rise when more units of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1847162247900287447)  2024-10-18T06:26Z 51.7K followers, 77.6K engagements


"The macro backdrop has soured. Dollar strength is not good for Bitcoin. Ann Funding rates hit 40% [--] days ago. My liquidity framework is sensitive to the short to medium-term changes in momentum. In the long term the picture is Bullish; in the Short term they suggest caution. Be careful with leverage folks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1856858322194030668)  2024-11-14T00:34Z 51.7K followers, 106.4K engagements


"This is a gift. Dont waste it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1858236353303199824)  2024-11-17T19:50Z 51.7K followers, 49.8K engagements


"A #Bitcoin bid has overshadowed tightening liquidity over the past month. Yes there is a lag between liquidity and Bitcoin and therefore $BTC seems overstretched vs. global M2. My liquidity model which I flagged [--] weeks back suggested caution especially with leverage. However @AndreasSteno revealed in a recent note that the Fed is in effect discussing a put for USD liquidity - changes to support liquidity developments as early as December. $DXY could have topped here. The lag effect that Fintwit is focused on atm is still real but ultimately the Fed is waving the bull flag for risk assets"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1861662465010082101)  2024-11-27T06:44Z 51.7K followers, 54.8K engagements


"Global M2 bottomed at $94T in Q4 [----] and has since climbed to $105T. During this period Bitcoin's market cap 5x'ed adding $1.5T. In other words 10% of the new money supply has leaked from the fiat system into the emerging global reserve asset of Bitcoin (gold equities etc have absorbed new money as well). What happens if M2 expands by the usual $30T this cycle @RealVision 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1862006636434583927)  2024-11-28T05:32Z 51.7K followers, 119.6K engagements


"The easy money in #Bitcoin from this cycle has been made (5x off the lows). I still believe there is more upside based on liquidity and global adoption. This hasn't changed but I also recognise that we have now crossed the 75th percentile for a composite of several valuation metrics. Cursed by a limited history if previous cycles are any guide $BTC tends to do wild things when it reaches these levels. @realvision"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1864176659953537107)  2024-12-04T05:15Z 51.7K followers, 23.4K engagements


"Bitcoin has hit new ATHs in the face of a deteriorating liquidity backdrop. [--]. If conditions worsen the rally while euphoric can only last for a limited time. [--]. If conditions ease from here then a pullback is warranted but then off we go again. Remember I am very bullish for this cycle and beyond. I expect CBs to be adding more liquidity. The macro model I use (Bitcoin MSI) however is sensitive to shorter-term to medium-term signals in liquidity. It helps me understand intermediate and cycle inflection points and has been extremely useful since calling the bear market on Jan 5th [----] and the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1864807659897266283)  2024-12-05T23:02Z 51.7K followers, 169.3K engagements


"This is wild. #Crypto is eating TradFi's lunch. [--]. Coinbase: 11% of global exchange revenue ranked 5th ahead of Nasdaq. [--]. DEXs: 5% outranking HKEX & CBOE. [--]. Total CEX revenue could hit parity with TradFi in [----]. [--]. CEX and DEXs are growing 2.5-4x faster than TradFi. [--]. DEXs are some of the most 'profitable' applications in the world. [--]. If you value the CEX sector on Coinbase's P/S multiple: Total market cap would be $749B vs TradFi's $610B. Big Trends For [----] [--]. TradFi starts catching upexpect CEX acquisitions and more Crypto integrations (Robinhood/Arbitrum) [--]. Several CEXs file and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1868944414309265477)  2024-12-17T09:00Z 51.7K followers, 34.9K engagements


"Tightening liquidity was evident for [--] months. Brace and watch the whites in the eyes of the central planners if this escalates. Buying opp incoming. Bitcoin has hit new ATHs in the face of a deteriorating liquidity backdrop. [--]. If conditions worsen the rally while euphoric can only last for a limited time. [--]. If conditions ease from here then a pullback is warranted but then off we go again. Remember I am very https://t.co/KOclmmsNjQ Bitcoin has hit new ATHs in the face of a deteriorating liquidity backdrop. [--]. If conditions worsen the rally while euphoric can only last for a limited time."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1869906859437764708)  2024-12-20T00:45Z 51.7K followers, 30.3K engagements


"With the strong dollar becoming a real problem I expected Bitcoin to be in the $80000 range by now. This speaks to the strength of the underlying bid and the market's expectations that the Fed will have to act; otherwise things will start breaking. Regardless of the sequence of events more liquidity is coming and Bitcoin should be much higher [--] months from now. https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1869906859437764708 https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1869906859437764708"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1876738455054778879)  2025-01-07T21:11Z 51.7K followers, 59K engagements


"The spice must flow. Theres a geopolitical game at play. The US knows a stronger dollar crushes global demand (and a Chinese recovery). Trump will use this to Americas advantageas leverage. But while we await high-stakes political intrigue liquidity remains net bearish without central bank intervention. However below the surface conditions have at least eased in the past [--] weeks. Here are a couple of charts to watch during this current liquidity impasse and why the long term trajectory remains the same"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1883492407804866754)  2025-01-26T12:29Z 51.7K followers, 88.1K engagements


"A quick take on Technicals vs. Fundamentals in Crypto: Technicals: Undeniably Bearish [--]. Severe momentum destruction evident in recent charts [--]. Crypto assets at 1-year lows surpass [----] drawdown peak [--]. Breadth measures poor but not yet at capitulation levels [--]. Expect potential chop and retest from current levels. Fundamentals: Resilient Smart Contract Platforms Despite the price slump key metrics show strength: [--]. Active addresses [--]. Transaction volume [--]. Fee generation These have grown or outperformed price in the past month. The disconnect between technicals and fundamentals presents an"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1887603287400325521)  2025-02-06T20:44Z 51.7K followers, 19.4K engagements


"Looks like the usual bear trap seen in previous cycles before lift-off"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1888040133183816176)  2025-02-08T01:40Z 51.7K followers, 31.5K engagements


"We know global liquidity drives asset prices. We also know network activity (aka adoption) underpins prices. So what happens when we map global liquidity vs. blockchain active addresses They tell the same story: Crypto is a high-beta play on liquidity AND a structural growth asset. Zoom out. This still has a way to go"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1889906225175024088)  2025-02-13T05:15Z 51.7K followers, 56.6K engagements


"Global Liquidity bullish momentum signal driven by a weaker dollar. Edging closer to central bank interventions. Looking for a break above mid-2024 high to confirm new regime"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1892022132164440167)  2025-02-19T01:23Z 51.7K followers, 49.5K engagements


"2 of [--] core liquidity measures in my framework have turned bullish this month as markets dive. Historically this has been very favourable for Bitcoin. Dollar is the next domino. Confluence is king"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1894538452848578873)  2025-02-26T00:02Z 51.7K followers, 81K engagements


"The 365-day New-Lows (NL) on the Crypto Top [---] Index spiked to 24% this weekthe second time this month. While that sounds bearish remember: true bear markets often see NL's extend over 50% (red circle). In crypto bull markets (despite limited index history) levels around 25-35% tend to mark bottom corrections (green circles) like Q3 '24. We can even compare this with the SPX NL indicator for extra context. 1/2 @BitformanceTeam"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1894891609495593265)  2025-02-26T23:25Z 51.7K followers, 27.6K engagements


"DXYs biggest 2-day drop since July [----]. This time at the top of the range not at the bottom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1897072169034870853)  2025-03-04T23:50Z 51.7K followers, 179.1K engagements


"Bitcoin rally odds very favorable. The dollar just flipped bullish (this month) and other liquidity factors in my framework turned positive in February. This setup has delivered 3x vs. HODL since [----] and 2.5x since [----] (nothing beats HODL over [--] years). Consider Bitcoin had its worst February in a decade Nothing is certain but the data is compelling. Receipts 👇👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1897161814108201451)  2025-03-05T05:46Z 51.7K followers, 43.5K engagements


"Dont think ppl understand the significance of the DXY move in the past [--] days and what it means for Bitcoin. DXYs biggest 2-day drop since July [----]. This time at the top of the range not at the bottom. https://t.co/2UhjrYkMb9 DXYs biggest 2-day drop since July [----]. This time at the top of the range not at the bottom. https://t.co/2UhjrYkMb9"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1897469970294157731)  2025-03-06T02:11Z 51.7K followers, 160.2K engagements


"When looking at this recent move in the DXY through a historical lens its challenging to be anything but bullish. I ran a signal screen for 3-day negative moves of more than -2% & -2.5% and found they have all occurred at Bitcoin bear market troughs (inflection points) or mid-cycle bull markets (trend continuations). As always with Bitcoin the statistical significance of medium-term signals is severely constrained by dataset history (not enough) but this is an objective data point to keep in mind. Results 👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1897783064841097578)  2025-03-06T22:55Z 51.7K followers, 150.5K engagements


"Bitcoin is like playing a game of Chicken with central banks. While my framework is turning bullish as the dollar plunges two metrics still raise alarms: Treasury Bond volatility (MOVE Index) and Corporate Bond spreads. In this thread I'll explain how these factors interact and why they could force the hand of central bankers. Lets dig in 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1898923308902674483)  2025-03-10T02:26Z 51.7K followers, 113.8K engagements


"Overlaying the dollar with Treasury volatility reveals an interesting divergence since Q4 [----]. The US Dollar rallied to [---] in January and only now has Treasury volatility begun to climb. With the dollars rapid decline in March one might expect volatility to compress or if it doesn't for the dollar to reverse (bearish)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1898923317421322281)  2025-03-10T02:26Z 51.7K followers, 43.7K engagements


"This marks the longest contraction of the Global Liquidity Index in Bitcoins historythree years and counting (measured from the peak). Previous tightening episodes (20142016 and 20182019) lasted 2yrs. How much longer will this go on Surgical cuts from DOGE aside the structural deficit remains unchanged. So how can the U.S. governmentor any heavily indebted Western nation (debt to GDP 100%) i.e. most of themand especially China (the most indebted) refinance if nominal GDP is falling behind interest expenses The fiat fractional-reserve debt-based system will implode without liquidity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1902161996147257814)  2025-03-19T00:55Z 51.7K followers, 125.3K engagements


"After last night QT is effectively dead (for some time). Treasury volatility has backed right off and is now mirroring the decline in DXY from earlier this month. This is all extremely liquidity-positive. Overlaying the dollar with Treasury volatility reveals an interesting divergence since Q4 [----]. The US Dollar rallied to [---] in January and only now has Treasury volatility begun to climb. With the dollars rapid decline in March one might expect volatility to compress or if https://t.co/U0JmQPVMes Overlaying the dollar with Treasury volatility reveals an interesting divergence since Q4 2024."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1902537475660366032)  2025-03-20T01:47Z 51.7K followers, 43.4K engagements


"In 2020/21 Covid insanity wrecked the balance between base money liquidity & debt (see subchart). While US govt debt exploded the money supply ballooned faster fueled by an orgy of handouts to cronies NGOs & politicians while the average pleb received pittance checks and stay-at-home orders. Nevertheless this sparked an epic everything rally. [------] came the hangover: liquidity dried up as central planners were mortified that the public was beginning to notice they had debased them into a cost-of-living crisis. That didn't deter the politicians though; they kept pumping the US govt debt with"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1902622222906490895)  2025-03-20T07:24Z 51.7K followers, 20.5K engagements


"The widely watched Bitcoin Hash Ribbon signal just fired. While on-chain activity remains sluggish the metrics with the strongest historical correlation to future price performance are flashing green"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1905034926803853658)  2025-03-26T23:11Z 51.7K followers, 27.2K engagements


"Bitcoin is like playing a game of chicken with central banks Still bullish on Bitcoin for this year but prepared to eat my words and eat humble pie if I'm wrong. While the easing in financial conditions is real and the past [--] weeks we have seen massive moves; Rates US Dollar CB Liquidity Money Supply Cracks are forming with credit spreads at critical levels. Let's take a look and then put it into the context of overall liquidity 🧵"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1907651620143509511)  2025-04-03T04:29Z 51.7K followers, 71.4K engagements


"An incredible update from the masters @RaoulGMI @BittelJulien when it's needed most. URGENT UPDATE join us now https://t.co/NnbNo25Ehj URGENT UPDATE join us now https://t.co/NnbNo25Ehj"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1909395794228379760)  2025-04-08T00:00Z 51.7K followers, 128.3K engagements


"What is happening right now is epic. Things are breaking. The fiat fractional reserve credit based system's fragility is on full display yet again. Look through the next couple of days and understand Bitcoin's ascendancy as a global settlement layer and collateral asset is accelerating. Fast. Before it was the plebs who understood this this time it will be nation states"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1909920934519300483)  2025-04-09T10:46Z 51.7K followers, 41.6K engagements


"Folks dont understand what is happening with Bitcoin during this risk-asset panic. BTC with 2.5x the volatility of the S&P500 experienced a drawdown of 28% vs. the SPX 19%. That is a massive OUTPERFORMANCE. When I ran a similar analysis in [----] I demonstrated that each bear market Bitcoin has been outperforming on a risk-adjusted basis. Perhaps it's not just BTC's strength but a reflection of the increasing fragility of the fiat system and its asset markets complex systems inherently trend toward entropy/chaos. Bitcoin is mirroring this unraveling."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1910474830048354589)  2025-04-10T23:27Z 51.7K followers, 67K engagements


"That's a lot of toilet paper"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1910565538323194344)  2025-04-11T05:28Z 51.7K followers, 46.7K engagements


"Although I'm not expecting Bitcoin to break through on the first attempt at resistance it's nice to see the subtle trend change"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1914427955054567945)  2025-04-21T21:16Z 51.7K followers, 14.9K engagements


"It's remarkable that expert talking heads some of whom manage money for a living don't understand simple metrics like risk-adjusted or volatility-adjusted returns. It has been patently clear to me since [----] that while Bitcoin's volatility is decreasing what is more striking is that traditional assets are becoming more volatile. Volatility isn't the enemy by the way provided you're being compensated by higher returns. That is not the case for Bonds and Equities relative to Bitcoin. And this has massive implications for asset allocation and portfolio construction going forward"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1914852422692036793)  2025-04-23T01:22Z 51.7K followers, 22.1K engagements


"Global Liquidity hits new ATHs after the longest contraction in decades. Yes it's dollar-drivenbut that's exactly what has historically fueled explosive asset price rallies. 1/2 https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1897783064841097578 When looking at this recent move in the DXY through a historical lens its challenging to be anything but bullish. I ran a signal screen for 3-day negative moves of more than -2% & -2.5% and found they have all occurred at Bitcoin bear market troughs (inflection points) or https://t.co/Lc6izl5U2A https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1897783064841097578 When looking at"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1914922039523381307)  2025-04-23T05:59Z 51.7K followers, 45.8K engagements


"Bitcoin's potential trajectory given where we are in the business and liquidity cycles. Fair to expect a normal 10% increase in global liquidity over the next [--] months. Bitcoin is hyper-sensitive to changes in this aggregate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1915156711679418500)  2025-04-23T21:31Z 51.7K followers, 44K engagements


"The thesis only strengthened as we moved from March to April (will publish the indicator set I used) but as the markets panicked and X was full of end-of-the-world commentary --- "The stage is set for a new all-time high in Bitcoin and Top [---] aggregate market cap by May." This week had it all. The DXY saw its 4th largest negative 3-day move--massively liquidity-positive. Just as Bitcoin nuked and had its worst Feb in a decade. Meanwhile in altcoin land the Top [---] crypto index puked one more time. The chart shows that [---] days of New Lows hit https://t.co/fpI77LOFvm This week had it all. The"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1920627978054348925)  2025-05-08T23:52Z 51.7K followers, 165.2K engagements


"Im sharing the insights from the April report which is typically exclusive alpha for @RealVision Pro members As the market was crashing and doomsayers screamed end of the world I shared The http://x.com/i/article/1920657851183493120 http://x.com/i/article/1920657851183493120"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1920698411629859013)  2025-05-09T04:32Z 51.7K followers, 34K engagements


"What I have come to refer to as Bullish Liquidity Super Regimes occur every couple of years like clockwork. We just had to wait a little longer than usual this time round. These are not your average risk-on regimes. New report with updated cycle forecast dropping tmw at @RealVision for pro-subscribers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1922833457664885091)  2025-05-15T01:56Z 51.7K followers, 120.5K engagements


"While Western governments lecture us on 'values' as they tax us into poverty and regulate our every breath the rest of the world is building the future with cheap energy low taxes and actual economic growth. The kleptocrats in Canberra Ottawa and Brussels can't see past their own power grab long enough to notice their citizens fleeing to places that still believe in prosperity over control. The inversion is completethe 'developing' world develops while the 'developed' world just. manages decline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1925706481812242681)  2025-05-23T00:12Z 51.7K followers, 16.7K engagements


"One of the biggest determinants for Bitcoin is the derivatives market and positioning. This break of the ATH was not due to outsized added leverage or one-sided positioning. See Q1 [----] for what happens when this occurs. Likely this current move in the secular bull has some legs still"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1926880155579920625)  2025-05-26T05:56Z 51.7K followers, 18.9K engagements


"The dollar has failed to mount any meaningful retracement of its historic decline since January. It appears the dollar is heading for a much larger devaluation than most anticipated. The global financial order is undergoing a dramatic shift"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1927204561225130176)  2025-05-27T03:25Z 51.7K followers, 24.6K engagements


"Just finished v1 of my Bitcoin Cycle Risk Frameworksomething Ive been meaning to build for years. After weeks of LLM crashes token limits & obsessive iteration its finally done. Bitcoin is cyclical. This model tracks why it moves: liquidity leverage behaviour. It doesnt claim to predict tops or bottomsbut through a well-grounded framework it does a damn good job of identifying when risk is rising extreme or receding overdone. Report drops on @RealVision by the end of the week"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1927362297162342427)  2025-05-27T13:52Z 51.7K followers, 39.8K engagements


"While MVRV and NUPL measure the potential for profit-taking LTH-SOPR captures when that potential is realizedwhen long-term holders actually move coins to lock in gains or cut losses. At previous tops the signal has been clear: LTH-SOPR hit [--] in [----] [--] in [----] and [---] in Q1 [----]. Today it sits at [---]. Bitcoin has rallied over 47% from the lows and reached new all-time highsyet long-term holder selling remains muted. While distribution will pick up as prices climb for now the lack of aggressive selling suggests minimal structural drag on the trend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1927524474649231421)  2025-05-28T00:37Z 51.7K followers, 25.2K engagements


"Bitcoin's sensitivity to global liquidity explodes during these regimes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1930030214526185919)  2025-06-03T22:33Z 51.7K followers, 55K engagements


"Bitcoin passed another test this year. As risk tanked in Q1 BTC outperformed the worlds top equity market in volatility-adjusted terms. But the first deviation from its usual risk-off reaction was the SVB collapse in 2023I wrote about it then as sign of its transforming character. Now the global reserve asset of the past [--] years US Treasuries has almost certainty reached its zenith and is sliding as Bitcoin ascends back to its ATH. The fiat system limps from crisis to crisis growing more frequent while Bitcoin hash rate hits ATHsmy north star for network strength. Amazing to think an"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1930143749373632663)  2025-06-04T06:05Z 51.7K followers, 46.2K engagements


"When BlackRock talks Bitcoin with clients they downplay the risk-on and digital gold narratives. Instead they highlight BTCs role as a hedge against monetary political and system instability. The rationale is evolvingso is the investor base: pensions sovereigns institutions"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1930382290049478885)  2025-06-04T21:52Z 51.7K followers, 18.6K engagements


"This is the playbook. Critical knowledge you won't find taught at our universities and schools. Masterclass from @BittelJulien @RaoulGMI The Everything Code TL;DR. The labor force participation rate isnt going to rise anytime soon its set to keep declining over time. This is a structural problem Weve got aging demographics falling birth rates and now the rise of automation. Humans are already being https://t.co/OwsOQWeXAo The Everything Code TL;DR. The labor force participation rate isnt going to rise anytime soon its set to keep declining over time. This is a structural problem Weve got"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1932023534550921605)  2025-06-09T10:34Z 51.7K followers, 42.7K engagements


"Bitcoin has rallied 40% since April [--] which was when my global liquidity aggregate (GLI) after [--] years broke out to new all time highs on the back of a plummeting US dollar. Since then the aggregate is up 2%. Bitcoin's Q2 rally is entirely consistent with liquidity regimes of this nature. While Bitcoin's sensitivity to GLI moderates over time For every extra 1% of liquidity added to the system we should expect to see a 20% move in the price in Bitcoin. While this simple model accounts for the continuation of the hoovering of capital from all corners of the globe into Bitcoin it doesnt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1933061557384257692)  2025-06-12T07:19Z 51.7K followers, 27.7K engagements


"While BTC is still treated as a risk-on asset by fast money traders its medium-to long-term trajectory is increasingly shaped by large allocators who see its emergence as a non-sovereign neutral bearer assetlike digital gold. Thats why it may trade like risk in the short term but still outperform gold over time. But lets face it even short-term risk-off events dont shake it like they used to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1934747463078056196)  2025-06-16T22:58Z 51.7K followers, 38.6K engagements


"If you remember [--------] the last major dollar depreciation lit a fire under EM equities and commodities. EM outperformed DM by 3x as capital chased high-growth young economies giving rise to BRICS. Crypto is todays EM. Capital is moving where the energy is. Fiat is fading"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1937981239790866602)  2025-06-25T21:08Z 51.7K followers, 22.5K engagements


"I remain incredibly bullish on Bitcoin. But as someone covering the full crypto asset class its clear the broader crypto economy is one of the fastest-growing techno-economic systems in history even with its primitive tooling scaling bottlenecks and friction. Smart Contract Platforms (SCPs) have evolved from experimental sandboxes into the beating heart of the ecosystem powering real-world utility and enabling decentralized apps and financial services at scale"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1940192033207153073)  2025-07-01T23:33Z 51.7K followers, 20.7K engagements


"Stack sats. Optimize health. The revolution is nowmonetary and healthspan. Put in the work for the next few years and by [----] you and your lineage will reap the rewards"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1944264405870583916)  2025-07-13T05:15Z 51.7K followers, 21.1K engagements


"Banks are the global economys bottleneck suffocating opportunity and blocking our escape from the productivity and debt nightmare. Theyve throttled economic potential for ages with central bankinga scheme cooked up by commercial banks to monopolise money creation secure endless bailouts crush competition stifle innovation and prolong war. Financial services represent up to 20% of global GDP ($100T) yet 2-3% ($1.3$6.6T) is lost yearly to banking friction and fragmented systems. Bitcoin crypto stablecoins and AI are cracking the dam but banks are fighting back: Genius Act bans interest on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1956150231160250434)  2025-08-15T00:25Z 51.7K followers, 18.7K engagements


"A Q3 Liquidity wriggle before a Q4 resumption. The Spice Must Flow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1958777371714322873)  2025-08-22T06:24Z 51.7K followers, 58K engagements


"Over the past [--] cycles Chinese equities and Bitcoin have tended to hit their highs together. Now the CSI [---] seems to be jumping in on the action thanks to 6% budget deficit and monetary stimulus (not as big as the COVID or GFC packages but its still pretty heftyespecially vs G7 countries ex-US). The way equities are outperforming suggests theres still more liquidity coming and more room for this cycle to run"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1960112665256428022)  2025-08-25T22:50Z 51.7K followers, 23.3K engagements


"Global liquidity is best understood as a perpetual refinancing machine. Debt keeps expanding faster than economic output which means liquidity must expand in parallel otherwise the machine stalls. The solvency of governments banks and the broader system depends on it. The problem is that in the US debt growth is now running ahead of liquidity expansion. That imbalance is becoming more important than the old debt-to-GDP ratio in signalling systemic stress. This chart isnt perfect. It only captures a narrow definition of liquidity excluding Treasury short-term bill issuance and private lending"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1960245677277282783)  2025-08-26T07:39Z 51.7K followers, 114.1K engagements


"Unpopular opinion MSTR/BTC Ratio: seeing a similar pattern emerge to the last cycle"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1961037675525525820)  2025-08-28T12:06Z 51.7K followers, 99.5K engagements


"ETFs and BTC TCs have driven this cycle but the structural bid from TCs is slowing as mNAVs compress. The weight of this market now sits more with the ETF flows. Meanwhile spot sovereign accumulationharder to trackis the wild card. After a dismal early September ETFs flipped bullish againright on cue with tops and bottoms since launch (h/t to @caprioleio for the killer data). In my September @RealVision report I expected a 25% correction after buying from these [--] cohorts inflected at the new all-time high. That move is totally normal within Bitcoins volatility signature. Liquiditys still"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1970664709637709942)  2025-09-24T01:40Z 51.7K followers, 117.2K engagements


"Tokenised stocks just 3xd in a month the fastest-growing asset class in the tokenisation race. The market still doesnt grasp how this new structural demand for blockspace will drive network token value over the next [--] years. There will be cycles there will be massive drawdowns but the secular trend is about to get supercharged"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1975018790732939753)  2025-10-06T02:02Z 51.7K followers, 38.3K engagements


"Bitcoins at all-time highs. The Bitcoin Cycle Risk Score yawns. Neutral territory = no euphoria yet. Carry on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1976065888324575458)  2025-10-08T23:23Z 51.7K followers, 19.4K engagements


"Bitcoins dip isnt mysterious its macro. The dollars rebound is tightening global liquidity. DXY is retesting [------] a key resistance and natural mean-reversion zone after one of the sharpest declines in decades in 1H25. Positioning had become crowded on the short side so a bounce was always likely. The real question: is this the start of a new dollar cycle or just the setup for the next leg lower Base case: liquidity tailwinds and an improving business cycle keep the outlook for risk assets bullish into mid-2026. 1/2"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1976449917364338958)  2025-10-10T00:49Z 51.7K followers, 63.1K engagements


"Crypto market was far from euphoric going into this epic crash. The secular trends that underpin these assets have not altered. [--]. Exponential adoption of Blockchain infrastructure that will touch every industry. [--]. The Great Debasement. Watch the policy moves from the central planners. The Spice Must Flow. Bitcoin is the king SOV and dominant and growing L1s for exponential growth tech beta. This is a risk reset. Not game over"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1976865370389832038)  2025-10-11T04:20Z 51.7K followers, 36.2K engagements


"In the end the long-term equation boils down to this: The Spice Must Flow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1978581745500144014)  2025-10-15T22:00Z 51.7K followers, 18.7K engagements


"Central Bank balance sheet tightening a defining feature of this cycle could be about to turn with the Fed ending QT. This doesn't equate to QE-style en masse liquidity injections but its still liquidity-positive. Mild stress in the repo market is one symptom of a system that is dangerously collateralised due to accelerating debt issuance. The Spice Must Flow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1980801100472320230)  2025-10-22T00:59Z 51.7K followers, 29.8K engagements


"The so-called Debasement Trade likely first coined by @RaoulGMI a decade ago is now being championed by the biggest debasers of them all the commercial banks. Its not a trade though. Its a long-term game of chicken with our central planners. Lets Go"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1981589968284979344)  2025-10-24T05:13Z 51.7K followers, 42.6K engagements


"The crypto economy scorecard heading into year-end and long-term allocators should pay attention. 3Y CAGR shows network adoption outpacing market cap growth. User activity cooled this year but capital liquidity and real economic activity are surging. As stablecoins and AI drive exponential adoption blockchains evolve into yield-bearing systems real rewards rise while inflation falls. Soon staking yields and sovereign bond yields will converge. When that happens governments will have two choices: tax machine transactions or stake to earn. Either way crypto becomes the substrate for the AI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1982777804313026793)  2025-10-27T11:54Z 51.7K followers, 19.6K engagements


"Until now crypto activity has mostly been liquidity-driven when global money aggregates exapnd prices and on-chain usage follow. Thats because use-cases have been speculative driven; spot perpetuals trading SoV etc. But since mid-year stablecoin transfer volumes have diverged from both blockchain fees and global liquidity. Thats a structural shift. It suggests real economic use stablecoins moving across chains for payments settlement and commerce rather than speculative flow. For the first time a piece of the crypto economy is showing signs of independence from the liquidity cycle. That"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1982933207982174688)  2025-10-27T22:11Z 51.7K followers, 99.5K engagements


"For me the most important chart is this one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1983319235444314346)  2025-10-28T23:45Z 51.7K followers, 113.1K engagements


"Once you understand how the debt-based financial system really works you stop being surprised when it starts to wobble. Few saw QT ending months ago. The truth is the fiat system is running on fumes it needs constant intervention to stop it from falling apart. Bitcoin flips that on its head. Its a system that runs on rules not politics order from chaos without anyone in charge. Global liquidity is best understood as a perpetual refinancing machine. Debt keeps expanding faster than economic output which means liquidity must expand in parallel otherwise the machine stalls. The solvency of"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1984208479134081154)  2025-10-31T10:39Z 51.7K followers, 58.8K engagements


"Finally seeing proper bullish alignment not just one indicator firing. Dec [--] printed a DeMark [--] selling pressure looks exhausted Trend Chameleon flipped bullish today price regime change Liquidity still in Expansion + low vol and picking up again the most constructive macro setup for BTC Since [----] this regime has delivered: Median 90d / 180d returns of 9.6% / 26% Win rates 6881% No 50% drawdowns Risk: Trend Chameleon reversal or $80k. Upside near-term likely capped around $110k due to volume overhang. Net: exhaustion trend reversal confirmation favourable liquidity backdrop."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2008155378639638819)  2026-01-05T12:35Z 51.7K followers, 39.5K engagements


"Where do you actually see crypto market indices sectors and subsectors presented in a Bloomberg-style professional layout Thats exactly what were building. @RealVision is partnering with my Helios Analytics portal (which I built to support my research workflow after being frustrated with current providers) to deliver differentiated crypto market datastructured clean and designed for serious investors. Think: Market-wide indices Sector and subsector breakdowns Institutional-grade presentation Data built to support decision-making not narratives More to come as we roll this out including risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2008320632971567177)  2026-01-05T23:32Z 51.7K followers, 48.7K engagements


"Let's face it [----] was not the year envisioned. Here's to [----]. And if you can make it to Miami in the NH Winter there is a banger line-up for this year's @RealVision Crypto Gathering. 🏖 Two ways to experience the Crypto Gathering: Community Pass: expert-led talks parties beach hangout space. Full immersion. Social Pass (BOGO): welcome drinks final-night beach party Drinks with Raoul LIVE. Bring a friend. Split the cost. link in comment below https://t.co/86CWcs31p4 🏖 Two ways to experience the Crypto Gathering: Community Pass: expert-led talks parties beach hangout space. Full immersion."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2008322547880775914)  2026-01-05T23:39Z 51.7K followers, 15K engagements


"This chart matters more than most people realise. Altcoins have been in a structural bear market since [----]. This is the painfully slow repricing of an entire asset class. Breadth has been collapsing for years. Fewer assets are doing the work. Most are quietly bleeding out. If a chain or app doesnt have real adoption it wont survive. Incentives fade narratives rotate supply overhang crushes and liquidity concentrates. This is what happens in maturing markets: The strong compound. The weak decay. The big get bigger. Everything else becomes noise."  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2008457558965841942)  2026-01-06T08:36Z 51.7K followers, 39.3K engagements


"ex-Bitcoin [----] was a bear market year of comparable magnitude to previous cycles for the crypto asset class. Repricing the highest quality (network adoption fundamentally sound) protocols/L1s just as the multi-year onboarding of institutional capital commences"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2008678457564426541)  2026-01-06T23:13Z 51.7K followers, 18K engagements


"We are ruled by the most feeble-minded tyrants. One word. Weak. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hints at following Keir Starmers lead in their on-going war against X and @elonmusk: Global citizens deserve better. https://t.co/Xv9s5mtZpz Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hints at following Keir Starmers lead in their on-going war against X and @elonmusk: Global citizens deserve better. https://t.co/Xv9s5mtZpz"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2010516358552064017)  2026-01-12T00:57Z 51.7K followers, 18.6K engagements


"Liquidity still drives risk assets but the relationship isnt static. The edge comes from identifying when it works and when it doesnt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2010854667790778383)  2026-01-12T23:21Z 51.7K followers, 34.8K engagements


"The Top [---] Crypto Index hit an extreme on the 365-day New Lows (NL) indicator in December a level only exceeded twice before: Q1 [----] and Q3 [----]. In my latest @RealVision report I covered the confluence of market breadth technicals and global liquidity signals which argued strongly for a recovery rally. The risk/reward from here looked attractive given the proximity and critical importance of the Nov/Dec lows for key crypto assets. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011268363092472300 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2011268363092472300"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2011268363092472300)  2026-01-14T02:45Z 51.7K followers, 20.2K engagements


"Hard to ignore the relative shift in DeFi 👀 Only 1.5yrs ago DeFi apps generated 2X the fee revenue of blockchains. Today its closer to 5X. (see chart) While I am a believer that blockchain's network effects will always command a premium it makes sense that more value than what is currently ascribed should drift to the front end wallets DeFi apps and protocols closest to users. But with open-source software users are brutally mercenary. Liquidity moves fast. Numerous examples but Hyperliquid for this cycle. Moats do exist (Aave stands out) but they are few and far between so a discount vs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2011774014365336050)  2026-01-15T12:14Z 51.7K followers, 14K engagements


"Folks Altseason isnt determined by the #Bitcoin dominance chartits all about market breadth like the number of assets outperforming $BTC. In my view when my Altseason Indicator crosses above 50% and the market is trending upward thats Altseason. Right now the indicator is at 67%. Crypto market breadth analysis brought to you by @RealVision Pro-Crypto"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1863674018815152520)  2024-12-02T19:58Z 51.7K followers, 69K engagements


"New Bitcoin ATH by May"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1925435200537801194)  2025-05-22T06:14Z 51.7K followers, 16.8K engagements


"It's about to get cra cra"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1937851275359752653)  2025-06-25T12:32Z 51.7K followers, 52.1K engagements


"Bullish Liquidity vibes"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1962713180121293020)  2025-09-02T03:04Z 51.7K followers, 49.7K engagements


"Settlement volumes on SCP blockchains will overtake legacy payment companies in the next [--] months. This is happening just as stablecoins are about to go mainstream. I first started running this analysis back in [----] but the pushback was always the same: TradFi networks process legitimate merchant payments largely insulated from bull and bear markets. Blockchains on the other hand are just degens punting NFTs or YOLOing into the next memecoin with volumes that swing wildly with liquidity cycles. Its a neat critique but it doesnt stand up to the data. 🔹 First it all starts with fiat. Users"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/1967565228125888691)  2025-09-15T12:24Z 48.1K followers, 29.4K engagements


"Im not really talking about hacking exchanges or breaching private networks. Im talking about cryptography and response time. Trading venues are gated and can pause or intervene. Custody is where cryptography and finality actually matter - this is a closer comparison to Bitcoin. Centralised custody systems have layers and the ability to mandate change when needed. Bitcoin relies on public cryptography and consensus which makes dealing with low-probability high-impact risks much harder before theyre obvious. Large instos (JPM GS) are investing in the tech to not only defend themselves but"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2013736293222498641)  2026-01-20T22:12Z 47.9K followers, [----] engagements


"1/ The BTC crash will prompt deep self-reflection. Here's mine as I review the last [--] months from the peak. Price action was clear from the $90K breakdown in January. But it was back in September when I first saw the potential for turbulence: At the time I wrote: I expected a Fed pivot. We got one (end of QT "Reserves Management"). I expected the business cycle to inflect higher. It has (ISM [--] 52.6). I expected a "normal" 25-30% pullback. We are now in a -50% pullback. BTC is a core position but in Sept and October I derisked some peripheral positions. I could have done alot more. My"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Jamie1Coutts/status/2019573338981691902)  2026-02-06T00:46Z 51.6K followers, [----] engagements

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