#  @Ironic_Ape Ironic Ape Ironic Ape posts on X about $lmnd, insurance, ai, bullish the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1460326355187511301/interactions)  - [--] Week [------] -14% - [--] Month [-------] +25% - [--] Months [---------] +484% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1460326355187511301/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +13% - [--] Month [---] +90% - [--] Months [---] +51% ### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1460326355187511301/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +1.20% - [--] Month [-----] +3.90% - [--] Months [-----] +49% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1460326355187511301/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [stocks](/list/stocks) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [countries](/list/countries) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) **Social topic influence** [$lmnd](/topic/$lmnd) #36, [insurance](/topic/insurance), [ai](/topic/ai), [bullish](/topic/bullish), [community](/topic/community), [$ww](/topic/$ww), [if you](/topic/if-you), [money](/topic/money), [in the](/topic/in-the), [investment](/topic/investment) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@jakebrowatzke](/creator/undefined) [@cedarstresearch](/creator/undefined) [@paperbaginvest](/creator/undefined) [@nicklamparelli](/creator/undefined) [@neilx10](/creator/undefined) [@bjmtweets](/creator/undefined) [@lemonadeinc](/creator/undefined) [@shaiwininger](/creator/undefined) [@andersreiche](/creator/undefined) [@daschreiber](/creator/undefined) [@kabraxfx](/creator/undefined) [@krishnay152841](/creator/undefined) [@cedarreseach](/creator/undefined) [@shadyjosh5](/creator/undefined) [@holysmokas](/creator/undefined) [@amitisinvesting](/creator/undefined) [@anthonyisonline](/creator/undefined) [@domienvde](/creator/undefined) [@alc2022](/creator/undefined) [@deepvaluebagger](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)](/topic/$lmnd) [WW International, Inc. Common Stock (WW)](/topic/$ww) [Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS)](/topic/$hims) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/tesla) [The Root Network (ROOT)](/topic/$root) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR)](/topic/$oscr) [IonQ, Inc. (IONQ)](/topic/$ionq) [Novo-Nordisk (NVO)](/topic/$nvo) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "Just dropped: How Lemonade is rigging the risk pool. Next up: Tariff impacts and the Glassdoor Deep Dive The juice is worth the squeeze. 🍋🍋 #InsurTech #Lemonade #LMND https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_2d45526a1c7a4786b97b0b7f912e312d.pdf https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_2d45526a1c7a4786b97b0b7f912e312d.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1907917193247076547) 2025-04-03T22:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@anthonyisonline I do not work for Lemonade just a retail Investor. Thank you 🙏 its taken a bit of time more articles on th we way - welcome any and all suggestions for improvements The goal is not to move people away from this community but bring people to it. No followers = no reach atm" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1908078507151814862) 2025-04-04T08:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "Just dropped: Tariffs Tweets and Tech How Trumps trade war could hit InsurTech. Our take If they hold legacy players suffer most. Lemonades AI and inflation-linked models give it an edge but not a shield with Q2 estimates. NFA DYOD. https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_f3143d02761b47f086cf586916d41865.pdf https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_f3143d02761b47f086cf586916d41865.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1909631280540529089) 2025-04-08T15:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Will Morgan Stanley revise their target 👀 🤦♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1910039552279912805) 2025-04-09T18:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@MarkPaddey Margin calls will be going out. [--] touches already 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1910055606993731869) 2025-04-09T19:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@anthonyisonline .Amazing how only LMND was updated early 👀🍋🤨🧐" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1910314149139128632) 2025-04-10T12:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CedarReseach You can read our article on it here: https://www.ironic-ape.com/#oc https://www.ironic-ape.com/#oc" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1910377489534247333) 2025-04-10T17:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@anthonyisonline yes - next report won't be until May though. https://fintel.io/so/mx/lmnd%20*/morgan-stanley https://fintel.io/so/mx/lmnd%20*/morgan-stanley" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1910580885469933607) 2025-04-11T06:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$LMND indirectly benefits from CBP tariff exemptions today on electronics and car parts slightly reducing claim costs in renters and auto insurance. No exemptions for lumber or steel leaving home unchanged. Overall the impact is modestly positive. https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDHSCBP/bulletins/3db9e55 https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDHSCBP/bulletins/3db9e55" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1911048573271093579) 2025-04-12T13:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@fintechfusion Thanks - the challenge we have is that the X browser does not allow for typical YouTube videos to be embedded - as such we have had to use zero cookie embedded containers - this is not ideal. Looking for better alternatives atm. Maybe HQ Thumbnail links" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1911784202816602267) 2025-04-14T14:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@fintechfusion If you have any log files from your experience - feel free to DM and well try and find the root cause if not the above - youre the first person to report problems" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1911784694804275422) 2025-04-14T14:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ActAccordingly @CedarReseach TRUP rate hikes triggered a drop-off in search interest that same week. Overall pet Loss ratios nearly match LMND. LMNDs smoothing curve held up customer acquisition despite Q4/Q1 hikes. Cedar analysis only shows [--] side of the equation. Whats the CAC for Trup to recover NNA 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1912136895070405121) 2025-04-15T13:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CedarReseach @ActAccordingly Not ignored - rate hikes were filed but often reduced by regulators. Maybe $LMNDs risk justified less With $300500 CaC they can afford to underprice short-term to grab share. Trup may get to rate adequacy first but whos still left when they do 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1912142889104142781) 2025-04-15T13:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CedarReseach @ActAccordingly Hmm interesting if theyve consistently filed below rate adequacy yet loss ratios are improving could point to superior risk segmentation and favourable future selection driven by ML State filings might be a stealth signal for future underwriting precision 💡😍 thanks 🙏" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1912153826624238012) 2025-04-15T14:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "We are aware of some bugs I need @DomienVdE to change the data format in Column C to have no commas in it we spent many hours trying to find a work around without luck. DanielSchreibersBlueGlasses is an old entry for example. 🙏🙏" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1912870919703240829) 2025-04-17T14:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "We did a fair bit of research for our Rigging the Risk pool research but thought wed update based on your posts as there is useful info there. Heres why this is not a concern in our opinion Whats the average age of insured pets at Lemonade About [---] years and net new policies are likely [--] months (give or take). Heres how we got there and why its not a problem. [--]. Customer Demographics: Lemonades customers are young (90% under [--] from their Q4 shareholder letter). Adoption patterns closely match Gen Z and younger Millennials. [--]. Pet Age (Supply-side): Shelter Animals Count (2023 report) shows" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1913340525102747891) 2025-04-18T21:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@anthonyisonline @DomienVdE The chart was updated and should show correctly on the site now I was wondering how long it would take for people to spot it the pic 😅 - site was also live for [--] weeks without anyone telling me community was spelt incorrectly 🤦♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1914633573492982246) 2025-04-22T10:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Gabesknows They gave Chewy the options - only 181k of warrants were executed before the deal was dissolved - no risk of dilution https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_ff7217c239b549df9a4364c44c137ffd.pdf https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_ff7217c239b549df9a4364c44c137ffd.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1915265006473462018) 2025-04-24T04:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@AndersReiche @bjmtweets Some points are valid - its a totally different picture assuming ongoing SA funding annually which has been the case SBC cash injection annually even before any other considerations. Depending on time availability - well share a deep dive" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1916063527233536209) 2025-04-26T09:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@energy_tech_inv @bjmtweets Surprise could be many things - if fire losses come in under $20m announce they plan to re-accelerate past 30% CAGR launch a new line of business or strategic partnership" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1919478281549533216) 2025-05-05T19:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Ive been following Lemonades open roles closely and my instinct is that tomorrow theyll announce an increased focus on indirect customer acquisition - doubling down on partnerships embedded finance and agency collaborations. My guess is this strategic pivot comes as a response to diminishing returns from Google Ads. You can have the best SEO in the world but if search behaviour shifts toward LLM-driven queries consistent direct-to-consumer acquisition will become significantly tougher despite a renewed focus on organic and Social that weve seen recently. Three live example roles today. If" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1919493616873177339) 2025-05-05T20:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@KobeissiLetter lol - fed making a rate cut 🥲" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1919871167914992064) 2025-05-06T21:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "no surprise - Softbank sold - explains the price movement" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1920062503020634541) 2025-05-07T10:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "More SoftBank Sells" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1920427049157591274) 2025-05-08T10:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "I dont typically advocate cross investments between portfolio companies but a strategic $50m mutual investment or equity swap between Lemonade (LMND) and IonQ (IONQ) at current valuations ($30/share $6.2B market cap) would be highly compelling. IonQs leading position in quantum computing recently underscored by their DARPA partnership could enable Lemonade to directly influence advancements in quantum-driven risk selection for insurance while IonQ would benefit from aligning closely with a high-growth AI-driven insurance innovator. Given Lemonades strength in underwriting technology and" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1920977799331901532) 2025-05-09T23:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Some interesting posts from new shareholders recently 😆👻👻" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1921147639443132612) 2025-05-10T10:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "More Softbanks Sells 🫠 - holding above $30 with this sell pressure when they stop its going to rip" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1921151605056942343) 2025-05-10T10:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Wow This could be awesome for $LMND Most animal drugs are just rebranded human drugs if savings are also passed through could be awesome unexpected boost to Gross Profit and EPS. If vet-drug costs drop 3050% (assuming meds are 25% of Pet claims) Lemonade could gain **$1530m extra gross profit** in the next [--] months as the cost of claims decreased. Improved loss ratios may also boost reinsurance ceding commissions adding another $511m. Total potential upside: $2041m or 1122% above Lemonades current annual gross profit run-rate ($185m). Key assumptions: Human drug-price cuts fully flow to vet" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1921703444970189013) 2025-05-11T23:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@AJ_Invests_Co @Ze1ooooo Might be the fidelity app and the way it renders the label on the app quick screen record of you recording live and clicking through" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1922133102232486125) 2025-05-13T03:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "More SoftBank sales 🤦♂🫠. Actually impressive that lemonade is still holding strong above $30 - stock is even up 6.46% since SoftBank started offloading roughly 35% of their stake since December Itll probably be very obvious the day they stop selling. But honestly trimming into a technical breakoutwho authorises that theyre leaving so much money on the table. If theyd just let it run 🤯 Theyre selling consumer tech to pivot to AI infrastructure. Feels like another Nvidia moment in the making - SoftBank might seriously regret this move down the line" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922147846553317618) 2025-05-13T04:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Been thinking a lot about these recent SoftBank share sales of $LMND. Initially it made me pretty nervous (do they know something we dont - I dont by the way I just think since the Trump announcement they need to raise cash) and while seeing a large holder sell is never ideal it might actually explain something important: Why has institutional ownership lagged behind expectations especially given Lemonades clear progress towards profitability and strong retail sentiment Heres one possible reason When one shareholder (like SoftBank) owns a substantial stake (typically over 10%) index providers" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922287215364788413) 2025-05-13T13:46Z [----] followers, 11K engagements "Its strange I bought in at IPO because Id followed Lemonade before they went public and loved their approach and management. I put 10k in as a punt even though it seemed expensive at the time relative to their scale. But at that early stage youre really investing in the leadership and vision not just the current valuation. When the stock dropped I just kept adding my conviction growing stronger and stronger with each passing quarter. Fast forward to today theyre now cash flow positive only a couple of years from net profitability yet still remarkably undervalued compared to what theyve built" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1922338643064013119) 2025-05-13T17:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "He wants people to love him and he needs inflation down more to force feds hand pharma make up 8.8% of CPI but the only way that comes down is the end user spends less - the only way to get that to happen is to ensure manufacturer savings are passed to the end buyer HIms and others could otherwise buy cheap and keep margins higher not passing as much onto the user you think hell stop just because its HIms - hes pushing for popularity and mid terms and rate reductions he doesnt give two shits about HIms or their margins. imo" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1922355562609836255) 2025-05-13T18:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@bjmtweets And when they sold out of Uber" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1922422105209024696) 2025-05-13T22:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ShadyJosh5 @PaperBagInvest Haha you panicked me for a minute Shouldnd post on X when on strong pain killers lol - then remembered why it was roughly offset based on 80% of Sythetic agents growth being funded off balance sheet will update later" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1922553408474554597) 2025-05-14T07:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@MilknHoneyCap Whats your buy for LMND ;)" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1922641067809132891) 2025-05-14T13:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "No signs of SoftBank selling $LMND shares over the past couple of days. It appears they haven't crossed below the 10% ownership threshold yet as doing so would require filing an updated Schedule 13D or 13G to inform the market. If they drop below 10% their future transactions will only be visible through quarterly 13F filings or annual proxy statements unless they fall below a 5% ownership stake. A huge thank you to everyone supporting Ironic Apewe've surpassed [---] followers in just around [--] weeks We've also seen impressive engagement with [----] unique site visitors averaging [--] minutes per" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922682905890869500) 2025-05-14T15:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "No more announcements from SoftBank until they cross below 5%. Heres their latest round of sales: notably theyre offloading steadily around the $32$33 range yet incredibly the stock continues to hold firm 😍 In my wildest dreams I never imagined $LMND would sustain these price levels with such persistent selling pressure from its largest external holder. This strength hints at solid underlying institutional demand absorbing the supply without major dips Having ridden this stock from $183 down to $10 and now climbing back up I take comfort in knowing these fluctuations often dont reflect true" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1922868981863460977) 2025-05-15T04:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "At this rate youre going to end up holding just two stocks - and ironically both have modest dividend yields (Google at 0.5% and UnitedHealth at 2.7%). Might be time for a rebrand 🤦♂ - it was a tough lesson for me to learn to be patient and wait for support to kick in before loading up might not catch the very bottom but far less risk involved" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1922877033396211865) 2025-05-15T04:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "$LMND is the antidote for frustrated $UNH investors and hopefully one day customers - there would never be a better time to announce a new line of business 😉 - put simply its insurance reimagined. Site updated to show you exactly why: http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1923112554332561503) 2025-05-15T20:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Honestly I think its best to use both Net Earned Premium and Revenue when valuing LMND. NEP gives a clearer picture of actual underwriting performance and book value while Revenue captures the broader growth story including commissions and investment income. Gross Earned Premium isnt ideal because it includes premiums Lemonade pays directly out to reinsurers - so it inflates the actual revenue and risk retained by Lemonade. Since Lemonade is fundamentally a tech-driven company operating in insurance using NEP and Revenue together provides the most accurate and holistic picture IMO 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1924969757561741421) 2025-05-20T23:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "WTF happened - it was 0.7% up LMND and I got on a plane and landed at its +7% And ionQ 40% 🫠" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1925635446886842819) 2025-05-22T19:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@ChrisCamillo genuinely curious your take on $LMND. My un-evolved dumb ape thesis here complete with 7-year financial projections in my first article Bullish AF 🦧. DCF @15% discount = $64 vs todays $32 🤷♂. Loved by customers strong retail community growing fast. Investors anchored to past burns missing clear recent progress. Seems like your MO http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1926104546545221820) 2025-05-24T02:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Theres absolutely no reason for the stock to be trading at these levels anymore IMO - t simply doesnt make sense to me. Even applying a conservative 15% discount rate the DCF fair value today is $64 per share ($115 at 10%). With zero debt over $1bn in cash and investments cash flow positive EBITDA positive next year and profitable by [----] its primed to become a cash-generating machine. .And on a nice pullback ready for its next leg up Full analysis at http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1926179157655900286) 2025-05-24T07:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@BagelC47 In case you ever want the actual slides from investor day [--] - theyre here Easier than trying to take screen shots from the video ;) This was one of my favourite slides of the event too 👌 https://s24.q4cdn.com/139015699/files/doc_presentations/2024/Lemonade-Investor-Day-2024.pdf https://s24.q4cdn.com/139015699/files/doc_presentations/2024/Lemonade-Investor-Day-2024.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1926194433956950055) 2025-05-24T08:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Who doesnt enjoy a casual browse through trademark databases on a Saturday night after a few sangrias It looks like $LMND had their trademark approved in Canada in July last year 👀 Not sure Ive seen this shared or any discussion around Canada expansion in the community before $45bn TAM about to be added 👀🍋" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1926338674926489690) 2025-05-24T18:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "I should have been clearer- They were net cash flow positive Q3 [----] and Q4 [----] went cash flow negative q1 [----] but will be cash flow positive on a consistent basis [----] - they took a $25m+ impact Q1 due to LA fires but moving forward should be CF+ The debt is funding (more like a cash advance from General Catalyst - it operates more like a cash advance than a loan. Its Performance-Based Obligation: If the premium stream from a cohort is insufficient to repay GCs investment plus the fixed return GC bears the loss. Lemonade has no obligation to cover the shortfall and GC has no recourse" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1926460940360290775) 2025-05-25T02:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Also - the balance sheet is not really representative for LMND as 80% of growth is funded off balance sheet - so it doesnt show the GC $400m or so that has been made available to them to fund growth and given the debt is contingent on performance- this is why I say it largely has no debt. Hope that makes sense. So in their Balance sheet 100% of growth spend shows up as a liability where as in reality they still have 80% of that sitting as cash in their bank account. So the shareholder equity should really be adjusted to include the 80% of cash thats still sitting in their accounts - but is not" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1926464594987344119) 2025-05-25T02:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Im hoping they double down on indirect partner acquisition and organic cross-selling with a particular emphasis on clearing that car insurance waitlist at least until theyre profitable. Having said that I just revisited the recent earnings call transcripts. Tim mentioned theyd target approximately $165 million in S&M spend for [----] with absolute spend in dollars increasing in [----] and [----] but the relative percentage growth slowing compared to previous years. Id initially used a simple straight-line approach based on Q1 multiplied by four for [----] but Tim specifically called out a reduction" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1926848877266706844) 2025-05-26T03:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Want to quickly show a mate how $LMND Net Income is trending whether theres enough capital to cover regulatory surplus or even take on the dreaded unknown combined ratio 👻👻 - but big spreadsheets arent really your thing Hopefully this helps Live in Beta. There will be bugs so let me know if you spot any More data points will be added in time and some visual tweaks" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1927112352043872494) 2025-05-26T21:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "🚨 $LMND technical breakout 📈 After years of people asking why Im bullish on Lemonade Insurance I decided to consolidate all my personal insights and research into one place making it easy for everyone to understand. The stock just broke out of its downward trend and Call:Put ratios are leaning bullish and their forecast to be EBITDA+ next year curious whether this could indicate a swing trade or a long-term investment opportunity Check out (not financial advice)your one-stop resource for everything Lemonade Insurance 🍋🐵 Invested or thinking of investing follow for the latest news and" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1927673315109269524) 2025-05-28T10:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Id never considered this before but honestly the synergy makes perfect sense That said Id genuinely be disappointed with just a 24x buyout at todays prices. Initially Id hoped Lemonade might partner with PayPal to offer enhanced Extended Seller Protectiondynamically identifying and risk-scoring each product in a sellers basket instantly providing tailored quotes for coverage like accidental damage for TVs or travel insurance for holidays. However nowadays it actually feels like Apple would be a better fitcovering both their own products directly and every single transaction made via Apple Pay" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1927806103791824963) 2025-05-28T19:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Neil_X10 @ssmith3088 @bigmark419 @DomienVdE @CarioCapital @daschreiber @shai_wininger They should just partner and integrate to the stack like Affirm and Klarna have" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1927815586723066056) 2025-05-28T19:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "I dont know exactly what the stock price will do in the short term but Im confident in the long-term trend. That said with the recent Court of International Trade ruling Trump is bound to be very vocal on social media - which combined with the current technical setup suggests were in for a wild and very volatile few days ahead - strap in" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1927941135252467911) 2025-05-29T04:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Swapped out some gains from CELH and SPY the last few weeks to flip into $LMND - down to small DCA buys until July 🙁" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1928087527115604378) 2025-05-29T13:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "🚀 Want a quick way to see what your $LMND holdings might be worth in the future Just enter your share count and choose the valuation multiple you prefer the model will do the rest. ✨ Ive also made a few updates: Improved the visual layout Made it easier to remove selected items Added a loading progress screen 📈 Historical share prices are shown using the midpoint of each years high/low range. Enjoy and as always let me know if you spot any bugs ✈ Ill be on a plane most of the day so replies or updates might be a bit delayed. N.B Not financial advice DYOD. http://Ironic-ape.com" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1928322893974491477) 2025-05-30T05:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Well fu*k me. interest jumped somewhat 😍 - is this a proxy for $LMND interest 🤷♂ http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1928516175643738377) 2025-05-30T18:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Seriously WTF Bots 🤯" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1928555414351691811) 2025-05-30T20:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@teslanopoly @Veganhippo21 30k. Right now" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1928862885838520537) 2025-05-31T17:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "For those who arent familiar with $LMND Ive compiled a comprehensive collection of the best insights from investor days management interviews my original analysis financial projections and a diverse range of opinions from the over [----] strong retail community on Please note that this information is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. DYOD. http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1928903398109184207) 2025-05-31T19:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "When VCs finally start digging into native AI full-stack companies like $LMND theyll need to invent a whole new valuation class. And I for one cant f*cking wait. 😁🥳 Maybe then theyll realise why you cant box it in as just insurance or just tech. $LMND gets shoutout in the startup podcast on AI https://t.co/praUYg1zzT $LMND gets shoutout in the startup podcast on AI https://t.co/praUYg1zzT" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1928906675244716076) 2025-05-31T20:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "They essentially have no debt. However this is shown as a liability in their balance sheet due to the way they report. The debt is essentially a cash advance provided by General Catalyst to fund 80% of their growth. If youre interested theres a video at the bottom of my site from Dom that explains the mechanics of it http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1929103414895534239) 2025-06-01T09:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Andrewmoto97 @PaperBagInvest And those that DCAed will be very well rewarded 🤑" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1929111566177182137) 2025-06-01T09:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Andrewmoto97 @PaperBagInvest IPO and ever since along the way average was down below [--] but been averaging up recently" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1929113328586015131) 2025-06-01T09:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "$LMND social sentiment on X is overwhelmingly positive right now and its not just a blip. You can feel the shift across the community. Heres how sentiment has evolved over just the past week and ohhh how things have changed from just a few months ago Apparently is now a pretty accurate sentiment tracker for $LMND too I couldnt resist checking the data 😎🤣 Also worth noting: $LMND authors are up 51.1% week-over-week. Momentum is building. 🚀 These tools aren't cheap - like and follow if you find value 🙏 http://Ironic-Ape.com http://Ironic-Ape.com" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1929218258097537360) 2025-06-01T16:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "The fundamentals are far stronger than the balance sheet implies. Lemonade $LMND has hundreds of millions in available cash funding 80% of growth spend off-balance sheet yet GAAP and insurance regulatory accounting principles require them to report 100% of that spend as a liability. IMO a massive inflection point is rapidly approaching. Check out my detailed assumptions and comprehensive 7-year financial models at - keen to hear your thoughts http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1929250554384916744) 2025-06-01T18:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$LMND overnight volume higher than Microsoft Netflix Coinbase and catching up with $GME 🫣🍋🔥" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1929416549443506183) 2025-06-02T05:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "How much am I going to spend buying $LMND stock today. $100 $1000 $5000 $10000 $20000 - you guys are in total control 😅 - [--] new followers = [--] share of $LMND - so far we're at $33 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1929493621121712405) 2025-06-02T11:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Why not $LMND" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1929533900046454901) 2025-06-02T13:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@STICKSAND1 Everyone should do whats right for them fu*ck the judgement - no one knows anyone elses personal situation. That said - Im buying more 😅" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1929585883834949724) 2025-06-02T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Two people in my office bought this morning before the pump all day WTF they also bought TSLA with me at $225 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1929587031153271126) 2025-06-02T17:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "🤫 enjoyable train ride home tonight $LMND #lemonapes" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1929592589990109207) 2025-06-02T17:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Nick_Lamparelli Not a buffet stock IMO - but great underlying financials quickly improving fast approaching an inflection point with very little risk of insolvency vs the risk reward of upside on the stock at current prices 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1929753508670329165) 2025-06-03T04:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@FundasyInvestor @FromValue Okay - you tell me what would be more realistic in your view and why" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1929934522092535808) 2025-06-03T16:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@FundasyInvestor @FromValue Why do you think Growth has to slow to Mid teens Okay I'll bite on 70% GLR and Why would expense ratio scale down much slower" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1929937037752181227) 2025-06-03T16:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@FundasyInvestor @FromValue [--]. So you think my assumptions in increased growth spend from $165m to $300m annually over the period is not sufficient - what do you think it needs to be to sustain 30% Growth rate then and why" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1929940303286296829) 2025-06-03T16:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "In insurance AI has become the new digital transformation - vague overused and mostly meaningless. Unless they explain what kind of AI theyre using theyre probably just repackaging old tech with a shiny label or buying a Chat-GPT subscription. Lets break it down: LLMs help generate documents code answer policy questions and script CX chats. Great for efficiency - but they dont assess risk or settle claims. Graph-based systems spot fraud rings behavioural anomalies and connected claims that rule engines miss. Rules-based automation is what most incumbents rely on - and thats not AI. Thats just" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1930156654210720201) 2025-06-04T06:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@HenryInvests No backsies 🤝" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1930963407966032073) 2025-06-06T12:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@HolySmokas The same thing we buy every day Pinky. $LMND @AndersReiche" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1931074974107701272) 2025-06-06T19:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Once it hits $100 or so suspect the real fomo kicks in the inevitable screenshots will start flowing showing hundreds of percentage point gains and then the really interesting move happens from retail.like $PLTR $HIMs $HOOD etc as I called out on Nicks post this morning - at the moment - its not retail buying this time yet (despite Jakes best efforts 😂)" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1931264692950860054) 2025-06-07T08:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PaperBagInvest Amazon Netflix Stripe Adyen PornHub Revolut Spotify Uber AirBNB Wise. You dont need to be a genius to see where this is going" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1931270113736704425) 2025-06-07T08:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Nick_Lamparelli @jakebrowatzke How much do you think they will need to hit their growth goals in $" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1932416898454745096) 2025-06-10T12:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Veganhippo21 I retract this - I thought you were shorting LMND 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1932454943388025223) 2025-06-10T15:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Nick_Lamparelli @AndersReiche @cvalente28 Sorry - community =$25m vs actual $29m But far below the $67.2m KBW estimate and others we saw above $180m The community absolutely nailed this one" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1932480596992811351) 2025-06-10T16:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "I think this is a classic example of IBM having the right idea years ahead of its time but the culture and a reluctance to invest held them back from executing fast enough. 🤷♂ Funny story I actually applied to IBMs grad programme years ago. Spent two hours carefully completing their online forms thoughtfully answering every question clicked submit and two seconds later got an instant rejection. Why Poor A-levels Ds and Es. 🤯 Somehow I still made it into university worked my arse off and graduated top of my class with a 1st. Id completely turned it around. But IBM by design was looking" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1932684069009063938) 2025-06-11T06:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "My first message and first chat with O3-Pro. I had too. $LMND https://chatgpt.com/share/68496527-4670-8012-8397-3ed2a9c72cf3 https://chatgpt.com/share/68496527-4670-8012-8397-3ed2a9c72cf3" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1932759269725585903) 2025-06-11T11:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "China / US trade deal done and CPI under expectations. LFG $LMND 🚀" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1932781021319090561) 2025-06-11T12:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Matfitz22 @alc2022 Its not about how much they spend spend is largely irrelevant- its ability to execute Ai and embed it well into their organisations - which will be very tough https://www.ironic-ape.com/post/the-myth-of-a-quick-fix-why-legacy-insurers-can-t-just-add-palantir-or-any-other-provider-and-o https://www.ironic-ape.com/post/the-myth-of-a-quick-fix-why-legacy-insurers-can-t-just-add-palantir-or-any-other-provider-and-o" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1932822149854605439) 2025-06-11T15:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@Matfitz22 @alc2022 They dont need too - its not a winner takes all market to the point regulators would not allow it 🤷♂ QuestionStripe or Adyen outspend WorldPay Global Payments Barclays or PayPal" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1932830951333154836) 2025-06-11T16:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Id actually like them to double down on renters and pet - its a differing view to the majority that want them to push car - Pet and renters are the profit center of the business they have short tail risk exposure and allows them to retain far more capital for growth without needing such high capital reserves. X number of renters policies = Y car policies. They could continue to scale renters and pet for years at 30% - expanding globally before hitting any kind of saturation point. Pet and renters are the launchpad for longer tail riskier product lines. That said - its vital they expand the" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1932843884335222915) 2025-06-11T16:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Close above $42 🚀 $LMND" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1932890825551417637) 2025-06-11T20:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Its a little more complicated than this. @PaperBagInvest as we talked earlier in the week would be good to revisit the old LTV:CAC video - clearly still a lot of confusion around the unit economics. A significant portion of Lemonades cost structure is essentially flat - technology and G&A expenses have held steady for the past several years despite meaningful growth in the customer base. What often gets overlooked is the loss-ratio glide path. If the current trajectory continues - especially with recent price increases filed with state regulators - this will become a key driver of improving" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1932921621901422799) 2025-06-11T22:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@amitisinvesting A joint show with @bjmtweets @PaperBagInvest for $LMND would be awesome. Given your following - perhaps its worth you reaching out directly to @daschreiber to see if hed be happy to do an interview with you Its pretty clear my opinion on the company" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1933049262943973726) 2025-06-12T06:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "It wasnt a data breachit was a design flaw identified internally and resolved before any malicious activity could occur. They acted responsibly by promptly reporting and addressing the issue. In my opinion pursuing a class action here is pointless; it feels like ambulance-chasing against a company that followed best practices and swiftly prioritised a fix once the bug was discovered. Bugs exist in all software; no system is flawless. Will we soon see class actions for every zero-day exploit 🤦♂ https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_ff7217c239b549df9a4364c44c137ffd.pdf" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1933482394633343179) 2025-06-13T11:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@KrishnaY152841 @MitchMartan98 @JoeyTphilly https://chatgpt.com/share/68334a05-45c0-8012-bad4-3fc20bb966c8 https://chatgpt.com/share/68334a05-45c0-8012-bad4-3fc20bb966c8" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1934481810634821691) 2025-06-16T05:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "While I made a joke yesterday on this the reality is Brian provides some of the most detailed and well thought out content on $LMND and his stock picks - he really digs into the detail of stuff and takes a very practical and considered approach - well worth a follow My entire portfolio live trades and allocation breakdown is now live here on Savvy Trader: https://t.co/NOYRT2mPUT My entire portfolio live trades and allocation breakdown is now live here on Savvy Trader: https://t.co/NOYRT2mPUT" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1934928059939111227) 2025-06-17T10:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Veganhippo21 @psterky @PaperBagInvest @Neil_X10 @bjmtweets @daschreiber Thanks for sharing - really good to hear the latest after a few months of use" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1934971415431729479) 2025-06-17T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Retest of previous support of $38 anyone buying just curious In the pub trying to prove a point Yes buying Holding Sold some Selling everything Yes buying Holding Sold some Selling everything" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1935038522454421796) 2025-06-17T18:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@Veganhippo21 @STICKSAND1 @Neil_X10 @psterky @PaperBagInvest @bjmtweets @daschreiber Approaching your technical buy point 👀 - $36-38 - can we expect $2 or $3 million buy tomo 😂 Ill be watching for the candle 😂 - any chance you dont paper hand it this time P.s. you know we love you. 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1935108612558397731) 2025-06-17T22:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@amitisinvesting @jakebrowatzke And so it begins 🙌 - some content from the retail community Mangement and my own $LMND content here on http://Ironic-ape.com http://Ironic-ape.com" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1935446421529886759) 2025-06-18T21:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@DeepValueBagger Unless youve worked in both industries (FIAT and Crypto) - its impossible to understand how different they are. Long crypto" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1935595583479124067) 2025-06-19T07:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Ask yourself: What happens when the worlds most technologically advanced insurer is also the most shorted insurance stock globallywith roughly one-third of its shares shortedand suddenly the entire global retail investor community decides to buy simultaneously People think $OSCR has moved quicklybut do they remember the explosive early days of $GME leaping over 100% in a single day Unlike $GME Lemonade ($LMND) possesses a genuine fundamental catalyst: the primary constraint on its growth is regulatory surplus. Picture this: if $LMND experiences a similar short-squeeze surging overnight to a" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1935926566816456827) 2025-06-20T05:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@DarioBundi If LMND ever gets to the point where its so successful that its causing deflation across the US - and youre invested now I dont think youll ever have to worry 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1935956219530760531) 2025-06-20T07:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@jakebrowatzke @amitisinvesting Review Adinas interview from insure tech london its on - there are some absolutely lovely quotes and golden nuggets of information - its one of my all time fav interviews. http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1935965848205750403) 2025-06-20T07:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Car is ramping and the community @PaperBagInvest is scheduling an interview with the head of car there soon. Stay tuned Also - its important to consider its not really about the number of states its about the total reach they gain access too from the states they launch. If they launch [--] states and get access to 80% of the car TAM thats a better use of time and resource than trying to just go after every state. Their most recent state opens up a large chunk already" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1935967739329298636) 2025-06-20T07:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Just think for a second What happens if [----] retail investors share this chart today 🤷♂ Imagine if each share brought three more people into the community over the weekend to learn and debate. If youre reading this for the first time and want to know more there is a link to the community on my profile. This is NOT about pumping a stock I want to make that absolutely clear. A few weeks ago I shared a video about the first follower effect. Youre all witnessing that exact phenomenon play out in real time. Its deeply rooted in human psychology. If you missed it check it out here: This is simply" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1936310836043165955) 2025-06-21T06:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "Hopefully our friends at $LMND can get some much needed quality sleep tonight and enjoy taking their kids to the park tomorrow 🍋 De-escalation = Bullish for $LMND Maybe this is the catalyst we needed to push on up to $50 this week 🤷♂🙏" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1937278205569958029) 2025-06-23T22:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "$LMND and @amitisinvesting 🚀🚀👏👏🍋 Not one to be missed $PLTR $HOOD $TSLA $GRAB Thursday @ 10:30 pm EST set your calendars for a $LMND deep dive with @PaperBagInvest @jakebrowatzke and myself hosted by @amitisinvesting https://t.co/iBbv5JIWlg Thursday @ 10:30 pm EST set your calendars for a $LMND deep dive with @PaperBagInvest @jakebrowatzke and myself hosted by @amitisinvesting https://t.co/iBbv5JIWlg" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1937509536115372349) 2025-06-24T13:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Pre-planned sale (setup last year) from Adina at $44 😢" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1937511692738658639) 2025-06-24T14:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@energy_tech_inv Yeah but Ive averaged up a lot since then. I dont have my old trading account I switched apps around the same time as I was starting to take it more seriously So sold the old stuff and moved it to this account (which I still use) around the same time" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1937575625067495461) 2025-06-24T18:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Im trying to work out if weve met in real life / had conference calls 😂 Your take on Circle is spot on at some point - theres nothing stopping them from doing a capital raise too its not like they havent got the investment accounts already setup to maximise yield on highly liquid assets 😂 I was absolutely gutted I missed this IPO Dante and the team are absolutely phenomenal The revenue per employee is just going to go parabolic - Ill be watching close the first few days after lock up ends will almost certainly buy the pullback on this one" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1937589665722212665) 2025-06-24T19:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "They are only meant to sell a non FDA approved drug in the event of a shortage of the drug (they found a loophole) there is no longer a shortage - so they should not be selling it. They were working a loophole and milking margin for a long time Now the loophole should be closed and they are still pushing it now they have no choice as guidance would be materially impacted in terms of EPS investors hooked on the high margin knock off products - Until the GLP1 patents expire or they get their compound FDA cleared - how is this not a lawsuit waiting to happen 🤷♂ - I couldnt invest in them a year" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1937632089425551538) 2025-06-24T22:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I blame my teachers parents and relentless obsession with winning - I was perfectly happy identifying as lazy but those relentless bastards forced me down a path which despite my best efforts of excessive drinking all inclusive resorts and late night love island binges - Im yet to find a way to transition back. 😅 Glad to see some fellow resulters here. Hopefully when the stock his $1000 the change to lazy will just naturally happen again. 🤷♂🙏" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1937644033817317787) 2025-06-24T22:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@Andrewmoto97 lol - fair one - but its algos selling off more insider sells just published - they executing options and selling - literally said above - technical analysis is shit if insiders sell 😂🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1937964159356059870) 2025-06-25T20:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "To suggest that Lemonade (LMND) has no insolvency risk at all is stretching things a bit to be fair. By their very nature all insurance companies inherently carry some degree of insolvency risk and this is an important consideration that investors need to weigh carefully against potential rewards. However given LMNDs current stage of maturitywith growth consistently between 3035%their insolvency risk remains very low. The scenario would only start to change if growth accelerated beyond 35% as that could cause the top line to outpace capital surplus growth more quickly than projected profits" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1938199487928778915) 2025-06-26T11:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@davegirouard @Waymo Now do it for cameras 😂🫣" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1938284226954002616) 2025-06-26T17:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@SixSigmaCapital Averaged up" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1938294266574545253) 2025-06-26T17:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@DomienVdE @Neil_X10 @PaperBagInvest @jakebrowatzke Its weird though cos when I went through their financial reporting it ranges between 12-14% - I was always a little confused by this" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1938299075386085714) 2025-06-26T18:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@DomienVdE @Neil_X10 @PaperBagInvest @jakebrowatzke I had always assumed some cohorts had failed and churned - so the actual effective interest rate was closer to 13%" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1938299391430864902) 2025-06-26T18:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@jakebrowatzke I actually think humanoid robots help reduce the manual expense of claims go look at this car or house and asses the real damage" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1938305762129838085) 2025-06-26T18:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "ROOT LMND and OSCR investors are all like siblings 😂 - all fighting for the limelight but ultimately when they grow up they all replace the generation that came before. I can not rate Andy highly enough - there is no other retail investor that knows ROOT better and Ive learnt so much about them through debate over the years. Solid follow" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1938352530653585638) 2025-06-26T21:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@TrendSpider Just wait a couple interest rate changes annnnnnd 🚀" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1938376646991745091) 2025-06-26T23:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Is it just me or does it feel like yesterdays absolute growth-stock sell-off was predicated on Wall Street knowing a China deal had been signed prompting them to exit positions or wanting to cover shorts lower before a potential rally upon announcement 🕵♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1938377588696637503) 2025-06-26T23:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Its not just for the under [--] thats just their primary target demographic- I think the acquisition journey only gets exponentially better - look at the acceleration curve for Ai over the last [--] years. I dont think its long until you open the app and see a digital version of Maya - like a FaceTime call just asking you questions about what insurance you want - then sets up the policy for you. As a dyslexic - I HATE forms - voice and realtime video will be the standard in a short space of time is my bet they shared this vision at Insure Tech london a few months ago" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1938575283004621044) 2025-06-27T12:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Of course not - they would have a real problem real fast if synthetic agent program went pop. The only options left would be capital raise more expensive terms or an external surplus note but given GC is one of their earliest investors and have renewed the agreement and expanded the capital allowance twice already on the same terms - Id argue the risk is pretty low - plus GC has now replicated this type of agreement with other companies like Grammerly etc - I dont see a world where they would be renewing and expanding the agreements if it wasnt NET positive for them take a look" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1938662657135190378) 2025-06-27T18:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "The 16% is not all in year [--] its amortised over what ever period it needs to be so it could Be spread over [--] months or [--] months or [--] months typically after 16-20 months the 16% is fully repaid so the margin on the 1st renewal is higher and then higher again 2nd anniversary onwards it yes LR does need to come down but we will start to see margin improvement in the coming years as the early cohorts get fully repaid and they dont even need to change anything in their business to soon start benefiting from that margin expansion" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1939040845333688617) 2025-06-28T19:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@FelixKern2 @bjmtweets @Neil_X10 @jakebrowatzke No its like a cash advance theres a fair few posts today on it and a detailed video at the bottom of the home page from Dom explaining it in detail on http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1939048073373630622) 2025-06-28T19:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "He works for an amazing organisation that I fully support his backing of the BCorp status makes sense now. Hes chief of staff at the moment it in insurance but looks like hes looked after his companies insurance relationships - having worked his way up but background is ProcurmentThats why he looks at this with a pure numbers view. Im sure hes excellent at his job but lacks the Experiance from a digital marketing customer experiance and technology perspective. In my experiance - procurement people make great value investors but terrible growth investors 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1939053483136819508) 2025-06-28T20:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "What Wall Street is missing is that they are the future case study for low end disruption. If @ChrisCamillo spent an hour to watch this he would buy $LMND on open. Renters then Pet then car then everything else slowing moving up the value chain just like Hood and Tesla. Wall Street is just reading financial reports seeing unfavourable sales and marketing spend relative to IFP. They miss that $LMND is acquiring customers at a tiny absolute CAC value. As soon as cross sale of the 700k car wait list starts to progress the CAC:IFP ratio flips and they become insanely efficient. Soon the world" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1939078688663851441) 2025-06-28T21:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "You dont understand how human behaviour and digital funnel acquisition works. 🤦♂ For the most partIts not about people actively deciding whether or not to buy a policy based purely on customer experience during their first interaction. Instead its about whether a customer with clear intent can seamlessly progress from one step in the checkout process to the next without friction. For example suppose a customer visits insurer A finds suitable pricing and coverage completes all required information and then clicks Pay only for their card to be declined. On average card authorisation rates are" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1939342230554116106) 2025-06-29T15:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Okay they match their loss ratio but beat them in expense ratio. Its a hypothetical situation Nick the big boys can not match them on a car policy price - youre the Mangement consultant they can see Car book with adverse development theyre not sure why so they can no longer compete on price - they have set their EPS targets to the street and at this moment in time they know they are loosing market share to LMND car - what is your advise to the legacy carriers MT to ensure they hit their EPS targets. Its just a game youre the insurance expert - what advise do you give their board to focus on" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1939417704806649971) 2025-06-29T20:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Sorry am I missing something here I may well be So please do enlighten me. For a typical U.S. personalauto writer the NAIC riskbasedcapital (RBC) charge is 2540% of net written premium If an insurers longrun cost of capital is 710% the drag on the P&L is roughly 24% of premium far smaller than normal underwriting expenses (815 % for large incumbents). And because of their reinsurance setup ceding 55% theirs was just 10.4% of net written premium in [----] (sure it will come with some reinsurance cost) but they also make 25% commission Expense trumps capital cost by an order of magnitude 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1939426641845088638) 2025-06-29T20:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@PaperBagInvest https://www.ironic-ape.com/post/the-myth-of-a-quick-fix-why-legacy-insurers-can-t-just-add-palantir-or-any-other-provider-and-o https://www.ironic-ape.com/post/the-myth-of-a-quick-fix-why-legacy-insurers-can-t-just-add-palantir-or-any-other-provider-and-o" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1939586217693065229) 2025-06-30T07:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@jakebrowatzke Its always obvious with foresight 😏 $LMND is 100% next IMO" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1939613101738910037) 2025-06-30T09:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "So I guess $HOOD is going into SP500 next time round 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1939725658180964710) 2025-06-30T16:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Renewed and quota shared reduced from 55% to 20% - revenue about to accelerate Lemonade Announces Successful Renewal of Reinsurance Program - https://t.co/l5zbEUrFlf Lemonade Announces Successful Renewal of Reinsurance Program - https://t.co/l5zbEUrFlf" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1939772257057796263) 2025-06-30T19:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "The key question we need to answer is the impact to capital surplus over time - working it now" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1939776254238237163) 2025-06-30T20:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@bjmtweets Every single $LMND short seller waking up today 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1939938052404617653) 2025-07-01T06:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "If they are shorting $LMND here they are fools. Revenue is about to explode Profit bought far closer unless there is some MAJOR cat event (and I mean MAJOR) - they are not going to go insolvent. and EVEN IF regulators asked for more surplus they will be consistently profitable by that point and raising an external Surplus note with reasonable commercial terms would be far easier yeah it may reduce margin a little for a couple years.(and thats really the worse case the more I think about this) but In my humble opinion. I thought the shorts were screwed before. now I think they are royally" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1939964460539519476) 2025-07-01T08:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Algos. Guideance was 30% revenue growth YOY now 60%+ YOY with most of that acceleration happening in just H2 algo dumb. algo BUY When they didnt same thing selling of Adyen cos they changed the way they reported revenue a few years back it creates real pressure one way or another on the stock - and how many algos will step in to cover short coverage if it gets close to margin calls or just the emotional stress of a very real short squeeze occurring - Im not sure what percentage of short sellers will be able to afford to outrun any kind of rational reset of expectations - who knows All I know" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1939992886361075807) 2025-07-01T10:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Weekly DCA - have to admit - its getting sad to see the number of shares being bought each week go down 😅 but it is nice to see the portfolio balance go up 😂🥳 $LMND" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1940064768766976403) 2025-07-01T15:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "We see you Bob 🤫its okay well keep your $LMND secret 🤐 Setting that [--] month price target at $24 and loading up 624k shares during a period where the lowest price was $31 🤣 👏👏 - for the record I actually like most of Bobs earning calls questions but at some point you have to question an average return per transaction of + 1.2%" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940079783930425732) 2025-07-01T16:07Z [----] followers, 15.4K engagements "@ArranGray9 @ssmith3088 @RklbsFan @ShadyJosh5 @Andrewmoto97 London - pain in the arse to justify weekend away with kids at home - imagine @ShadyJosh5 will be the same this boy wont spend [--] on a beer - you thinkll buy a plane ticket to Scotland lol" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1940145857942159691) 2025-07-01T20:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$SOFI is bullish AF beautiful chart and institutional buyers loading up. $OSCR doing strange things AF but suspect this dip gets bought or we fill the gap around $14 and then rally hard back up from there. My best guess on $LMND we see a continuation and a retest of $53 and the surprise revised revenue guidance pushes it through to retest $72ish over the next few months 🤷♂ Added $LMND today as I always do lol and IF we get to the $14 range on Oscr; Ill be adding" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1940169735599280633) 2025-07-01T22:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "BTC will be forked and encryption will be changed to be quantum resistant same for standard protocols. Going to be a big engineering task for sure. But its possible. Either it happens slowly and proactively with a few left behind that become exposed or something radical happens in Quantum faster than people expect and overnight like the Y2K bug the whole world freaks out and rapidly deploys fixes" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1940289624623984728) 2025-07-02T06:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@jrouldz @ruth_capital Yeah - I had to add during the April dip absolute gift" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1940470120360693923) 2025-07-02T17:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Just for fun. $HOOD and $LMND charts - $LMND adjusted to the left from the 3rd week of July [----] 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1940476034807374335) 2025-07-02T18:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@HolySmokas $LMND - http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1940514974021177508) 2025-07-02T20:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CreativeCap89 See what $LMND does tomo could retest $40 or bounce here 🤷♂ - jobs data will be interesting- could trigger a nice dip" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1940539409688154531) 2025-07-02T22:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "$LMND still Low-cost disruption at its finest. Theyre targeting the parts of the insurance market the big players overlook then moving up the value chain - acquiring millions of customers at a low absolute CAC then cross-selling into traditionally higher-CAC more valuable product lines organically - which will shortly materially change the LTV:CAC unit economics- The global TAM is enormous (Trillions $) they have US licences in [--] states and across UK and EU (a moat against other insure tech disruptors)- they have the best technical teams (even validated by Open Ai this week in their" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1940666892902867223) 2025-07-03T07:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@shai_wininger @Lemonade_Inc Whats the period over period time period its measured over out of curiosity" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1940792336700919873) 2025-07-03T15:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@shai_wininger @STICKSAND1 Wait You have different workflows for evidence collection based on risk profiles at the POS 🤯" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1940813190633607392) 2025-07-03T16:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@shai_wininger @STICKSAND1 I have to admit - I quite like this - instead of an instant decline - its - okay we need some more info" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1940814702453633053) 2025-07-03T16:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I doubt it - if they are low risk they are accepted early in the funnel only if they are higher risk are they asked for additional info whats the alternative - decline your acquiring a percentage of customers that would have otherwise been declined (during a stage in the acquisition funnel that youve just paid a significant amount on PPC to get there) but it does show that its important to balance the NPS from the initial conversion uplift benefit to the detractor impact of a higher friction experiance" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1940819910575149406) 2025-07-03T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Because its based on machine learning you can model things like: if a person lives in a certain area the average age of homes there is X years; if the home is X years old it likely has a particular type of water heater or gas boiler installed; those boilers in turn tend to fail after Y years depending on when they were manufactured. The layers of decision-making grow exponentially with ML. You can go even deeper: homes in this postcode were often built by these particular construction firms and Builder A typically used slate roofing while Builder B used flat tar roofs even the postcode itself" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1940827355972272479) 2025-07-03T17:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@njnairinvest82 @shai_wininger @STICKSAND1" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1940829457708994886) 2025-07-03T17:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "You know I had the combined ratio on my site for going back for years and projecting forward 😂 - its out of date now and will actually be much better given the change to reinsurance as absolute expense cost is a lower percentage of revenue now following the reinsurance changes. Ive shared my thoughts in glass door reviews many times to you. And Ive explained my thoughts on car and they I appreciated managements approach to scaling pet before Car given the long tail risk dynamics at play with car" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1941149201271869666) 2025-07-04T14:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@KrishnaY152841 @RklbsFan @mauerstrasse @mvcinvesting @TradeSignalHQ If LMND is a small position for you - why is it the only thing you post about" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1941162838481068269) 2025-07-04T15:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@KrishnaY152841 @RklbsFan @mauerstrasse @mvcinvesting @TradeSignalHQ I saw - its almost like you follow the LMND community on their other stock picks 😂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1941168802097729558) 2025-07-04T16:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@psterky @Jaktier1 @PaperBagInvest I was honestly surprised to see ClearCover there they are monoline car only they have very poor customer reviews on Trustpilot they have shrunk their book by something like 15% YOY and -21% QOQ and theyre US only" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1941172731036524903) 2025-07-04T16:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I like the stock - Fair Share price today $95.16 IMO - revised model based on the new quota share I've also taken on community feedback and increased the SG&A spend and made the GLR improve less aggressively in [----] (I know there was a lot of pushback on this but just looking at the mean trend improvement QoQ I think it's doable. I've now included a basic P/E Fair price today discounted back and included into the blended Fair share price today (Book Value P/E and DCF combined). Spreadsheet and updated dashboards on - P.S. if you spot errors or you have any concerns - please do let me know I'm" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941248865572900901) 2025-07-04T21:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "link to the $LMND valuation sheet directly to explain how I get to a $95.16 fair share price today: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AFNxT-vC5O2Ubtl9yweLO1-C2pG2qE9n/editgid=1112138492#gid=1112138492 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AFNxT-vC5O2Ubtl9yweLO1-C2pG2qE9n/editgid=1112138492#gid=1112138492" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1941249923766419893) 2025-07-04T21:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "I built a separate model that had a full waterfall model for SA amortization it took a LONG time and I could never get the numbers to reconcile to be 100% perfect it was like 98% there but because I couldn't get it to reconcile perfectly I did not want to push it online. honestly I don't know if I'll ever go back and try and make it again" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1941261564125851904) 2025-07-04T22:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "You should consider $LMND - now they have changed their reinsurance quota share - people will catch on shortly when they provide revised guidance showing multiple years of massive acceleration in revenue and bring profitability forward many quarters. My full workings below. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AFNxT-vC5O2Ubtl9yweLO1-C2pG2qE9n/editusp=drivesdk&ouid=100301227358639379316&rtpof=true&sd=true https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AFNxT-vC5O2Ubtl9yweLO1-C2pG2qE9n/editusp=drivesdk&ouid=100301227358639379316&rtpof=true&sd=true" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1941384018236150184) 2025-07-05T06:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Others have also suggested a 15% discount rate - I had it originally at 10% and revised to 12% - the rational for this is that we are likely moving to a lower interest rate environment over the next few years which will ultimately reduce the cost of capital - I felt 12% is a fair balance between risk and the future cost of capital requirements 🤷♂ based on a [--] year model if I was pushing this out to [--] years I would move to 15%+ happy for the community to decide. 10% 12% 15% 13% 10% 12% 15% 13%" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1941403744161140737) 2025-07-05T07:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@danielisdizzy History doesnt repeat but it does rhyme - LMND and HOOD charts with LMND adjusted to the left to matching start dates" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1941478270094147625) 2025-07-05T12:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@CathieDWood Previously you looked into $LMND and understandably werent keen on their high reliance on reinsurance. With this weeks announcement shifting retention dramatically up to 80% does this positively shift your perspective Profitability now appears imminent (EBITDA+ in 2026) significantly improving LTV:CAC efficiency alongside 700k existing customers eagerly queued for organic cross-selling into car insurance. 🤯 The stock is poised for a 40%+ CAGR appreciation over the next [--] years. 🤷♂ Gross loss ratios excluding catastrophic events are steadily improving by 2% quarter-over-quarter" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1941512290806685842) 2025-07-05T14:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "To keep things balanceddespite the small sample of votesIve added two DCF scenarios: [--] % discount rate: Reasonable in light of where the company is in its scaling journey and the lower-rate environment were moving toward. [--] % discount rate: A more conservative hurdle. Over the next few weeks Ill clean up the model and run a fuller scenario analysis using additional valuation methods. (I do need to tread carefully though since the website dashboards are fed directly from this live file. 😅) Even at the more pessimistic [--] % rate the valuation still points to roughly [--] % upside. -" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1941565158335082680) 2025-07-05T18:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "With the new quota share my best guess is that $LMND surpasses $PGR in revenue per employee sometime in [----]. $LMND: 30% CAGR with headcount growth at 8% annually (1235 to 2500). This achieves $4M IFP/employee at $10B IFP by [----]. $PGR: Adds 12k hires in [----] then grows headcount 5% per year (66k to 116k) with a 15% revenue CAGR based on historical trends. Headcount growth here is conservative vs. history assuming efficiency gains from AI for $PGR and LMNDs recruitment rate is 8% vs 2% YoY (what weve seen for the last few years.) When the industry poster boy gets outpaced by the new kid its" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1941749440294916534) 2025-07-06T06:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "TL;DR: 🏆 Winner: $LMND Signed up for Google Gemini Ultra and just ran the first deep research test to determine which insurance disruptor wins. Est. $LMND Market Cap $131bn [----] It took around [--] minutes cited over [---] sources and reviewed roughly double that to produce the draft. I've uploaded the full unedited prompt as an image below and the complete deep research output is now available on in the file share section. 📑 Download the PDF here: (Full disclosure: I havent read through it all yet - it's LONG) Not surprising when you take human bias away to see ChatGPT o3-Pro and Gemini Ultra" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1941783938952839190) 2025-07-06T08:59Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements "@KabraxFX @bjmtweets @BourbonCap @theTIKR @RootInsurance I mean Roots added [---] headcount over the same time period Lemoande has reduced total number by [--] - LMND have already guided for an increase in headcount to essentially double by the time they reach 4bn IFP 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1941882560763613609) 2025-07-06T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@KabraxFX @bjmtweets @BourbonCap @theTIKR @RootInsurance lol - you think I hate root - I dont 😂🤷♂ Im just very confident LMND outperforms long term think both will be multiples larger than they are today in future" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1941889380118851692) 2025-07-06T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@DividendDude_X What do you think of $LMND" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1941952840399733038) 2025-07-06T20:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "Okay and regulatory licences Impact to their margins and EPS if they decided to launch a full stack insurance carrier themselves They would just partner with Lemonade or another I see no world where a big social network or company like Hims builds themselves. Everyone seems to forget Amazon tried and failed" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1942118220497858718) 2025-07-07T07:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Bear take - Lemonade will be disrupted by a bigger tech player with vastly more data money and resources 🤦♂ $LMND $AMZN" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1942121737497260153) 2025-07-07T07:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@StockSavvyShay @fiscal_ai Because its undervalued growing consistently light crypto regulation loan debt forgiveness gone 😂 - why is it not $60 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1942301480578392286) 2025-07-07T19:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "@hollertotide Its even deeper than this read my article rigging the risk pool on they are structurally changing the risk profile of insurable customers available to the competition. They are stacking the deck in their favour. https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_2d45526a1c7a4786b97b0b7f912e312d.pdf http://ironic-ape.com https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_2d45526a1c7a4786b97b0b7f912e312d.pdf http://ironic-ape.com" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1942451624598724810) 2025-07-08T05:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "A colleague asked his financial advisor (that manages his portfolio) about investing in $LMND his feedback "It would not be my recommendation they are not profitable and I don't think they are even a real insurance company" This was the level of detail he went into with them. really. This is how early we are" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1942539842765697126) 2025-07-08T11:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Hann3s_H What do you want to know - Im limited for time today" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1942540885083787525) 2025-07-08T11:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@shai_wininger @Lemonade_Inc This is awesome - I read this as you've basically made an internal platform that lets you launch new lines of businesses and geographies with no code. Like Guidewires New Product Generator Tool for PolicyCenter but on steroids" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1942559152129335316) 2025-07-08T12:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Having seen the market reaction to Loco launch today - its obvious they just dont understand the significance of this @shai_wininger - how about doing the boldest thing NO insurance company would ever do - Record or even live stream - from start to finish launching car in a new state or launching a new product / feature into production - show them what you can do in a few hours which takes most of them 6-12 months to launch. I mean - its bold 🫣 (even makes me nervous)😅😂 Who could ever argue with the technology advantage and agility then" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1942650846787035291) 2025-07-08T18:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "This is what todays loco announcement means. This is NOT a little announcement. 🚀🍋 https://chatgpt.com/share/686d824e-27c8-8012-a866-e4873aa8a9a7 https://chatgpt.com/share/686d824e-27c8-8012-a866-e4873aa8a9a7" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1942686002402803921) 2025-07-08T20:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Leinad7331 Im in disbelief 😂 Im weirdly okay as Ive got some cash coming July 26th 😅" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1942688204857171980) 2025-07-08T20:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@stellacrypt33 @shai_wininger @Lemonade_Inc @avax They explored this a while back TBF. https://www.lemonade.com/blog/crypto-climate-coalition/ https://www.lemonade.com/blog/crypto-climate-coalition/" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1942698809207017836) 2025-07-08T21:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@KabraxFX Until the market is surprised when revenue growth drops tremendously as growth slows once all premium has been earned in. By your argument - you should sell out of root now and buy LMND thats about to ride the same wave for the next [--] years 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1942711115701706806) 2025-07-08T22:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@KabraxFX Revenue growth. Not revenue. Revenue will likely grow consistently as you say. Market pays a premium based on CAGR. As premium growth from their quota share matures the NEP and revenue growth rate will slow.and return back to a more normalised 20-25% CAGR. 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1942714137672573246) 2025-07-08T22:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@andycyau @MrPoastMan LMNDs auto loss should improve by circa 10-12% YOY - think youre going to be surprised. Glad you agree on the cross sell CaC: LTV advantage @andycyau ☺ - looking forward to PBs car interview this week" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1942818066779283647) 2025-07-09T05:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Santorini is beautiful - My first holiday with my now wife - about two days after we met for the first time - we joked about holidays being make or break - so we thought fu*k it - and just booked one there and then. Went on holiday [--] weeks after meeting engaged at [--] months pregnant [--] months together nearly [--] years and [--] kids. sometimes - when life gives you Lemons you just have to go all in. 😂🍋 Book it get one of the rooms carved out of the rock the sunsets with a beer from the hot tub were amazing" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1942865060080050275) 2025-07-09T08:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "Just going to leave this here - summary of the success rate and average return of all the analysts following LMND. Wrong 77% of the time and an average return per rating of -24.4% on all their calls on LMND🫣 The analyst that rates LMND the highest and a BUY with $60 target is also the best performing analyst across all. Funny that 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1942913405465010668) 2025-07-09T11:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "@Neil_X10 @Vittoriobenedet @jakebrowatzke @bjmtweets @PrestonJVictory @ShadyJosh5 I do not.Ive been a contractor at an insurance company in the past doing business process mapping and reengineering and worked on deploying large complex financial IT projects into many of them" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1943053783392751836) 2025-07-09T21:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Enlighten me - thats why we are all here to learn. Im always open to being wrong and adjust accordingly. Im NOT an insurance expert and Ive never claimed to be one. But the point is - the TAM is not the limiting factor of growth here. Whether its $1 trillion3 or [--]. There is a HUGE addressable market 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1943271683386650782) 2025-07-10T11:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "👀👀👀 - consider my eyes peeled. I like the sound of "just around the corner"" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1943323624208785754) 2025-07-10T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "100% would be stupid to argue they have not increased the risk of insolvency from a major CAT event. Of course they have - they have less reinsurance What would you class as a drastic improvement as a percentage Just curious - can you put a number to it Given you say they havent" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1943409759706845649) 2025-07-10T20:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@ricobert11 @Nick_Lamparelli Thats not balanced - this doesnt take into account forward looking rate changes already approved it doesnt account for improved risk selection from ML model advancements. It doesnt account for diversification of book to lower CAT sensitive lines. I could go on. 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1943410388042764364) 2025-07-10T20:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "I mean thats not what he said. He explained theyre choosing to reduce reinsurance because their underwriting performance is improving (which it is) - As a result theyll retain more premiums leading directly to increased revenue. Interestingly just a few weeks ago your whole argument centred around capital costs and separately how the community was dreaming if we thought they would ever reduce their reinsurance share- are you now contradicting your earlier position 🤷♂ The LTV models may well have changed to be unfavourable based on higher reinsurance costs (if we were to disbelieve leadership" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1943416449990824321) 2025-07-10T21:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "Everyone shorting $LMND presently at $39.77 please post your short positions in my comments now 🙏 Thank you for your attention to this matter" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1943421094825783530) 2025-07-10T21:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements "@ssmith3088 @bjmtweets Ill just keep buying while its under its fair price today 🤷♂" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1943676201647644987) 2025-07-11T14:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "@jrouldz Ahh man - you had time on those calls - bet you. $10 it will be higher than $20 by time of expiration" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1943723882168349097) 2025-07-11T17:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements "If they had taken a loan it would have had a higher detrimental effect on regulatory capital surplus as loans (other than a surplus note) has to be offset in regulatory surplus. If growth slowed they would still have the repayment obligations too. But even if growth went on track - it would impact their available surplus. For example - Loan arrives: Under statutory rules the insurer books +20m cash (asset) and +20m debt (liability). Assets minus liabilities is still 100m so surplus doesnt move. But thenCash is spent on marketing: Marketing outlay is expensed immediately so the 20m asset" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1943730246726930776) 2025-07-11T17:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements "@alc2022 $LMND is a machine that monetises probability theory" [X Link](https://x.com/Ironic_Ape/status/1943780567163469904) 2025-07-11T21:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@Ironic_Ape Ironic Ape
Ironic Ape posts on X about $lmnd, insurance, ai, bullish the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [-----] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [-----] #
- [--] Week [------] -14%
- [--] Month [-------] +25%
- [--] Months [---------] +484%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +13%
- [--] Month [---] +90%
- [--] Months [---] +51%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +1.20%
- [--] Month [-----] +3.90%
- [--] Months [-----] +49%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance stocks technology brands automotive brands cryptocurrencies social networks countries celebrities travel destinations exchanges
Social topic influence $lmnd #36, insurance, ai, bullish, community, $ww, if you, money, in the, investment
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @jakebrowatzke @cedarstresearch @paperbaginvest @nicklamparelli @neilx10 @bjmtweets @lemonadeinc @shaiwininger @andersreiche @daschreiber @kabraxfx @krishnay152841 @cedarreseach @shadyjosh5 @holysmokas @amitisinvesting @anthonyisonline @domienvde @alc2022 @deepvaluebagger
Top assets mentioned Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) WW International, Inc. Common Stock (WW) Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) The Root Network (ROOT) PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) Novo-Nordisk (NVO)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Just dropped: How Lemonade is rigging the risk pool. Next up: Tariff impacts and the Glassdoor Deep Dive The juice is worth the squeeze. 🍋🍋 #InsurTech #Lemonade #LMND https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_2d45526a1c7a4786b97b0b7f912e312d.pdf https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_2d45526a1c7a4786b97b0b7f912e312d.pdf"
X Link 2025-04-03T22:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@anthonyisonline I do not work for Lemonade just a retail Investor. Thank you 🙏 its taken a bit of time more articles on th we way - welcome any and all suggestions for improvements The goal is not to move people away from this community but bring people to it. No followers = no reach atm"
X Link 2025-04-04T08:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"Just dropped: Tariffs Tweets and Tech How Trumps trade war could hit InsurTech. Our take If they hold legacy players suffer most. Lemonades AI and inflation-linked models give it an edge but not a shield with Q2 estimates. NFA DYOD. https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_f3143d02761b47f086cf586916d41865.pdf https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_f3143d02761b47f086cf586916d41865.pdf"
X Link 2025-04-08T15:35Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Will Morgan Stanley revise their target 👀 🤦♂"
X Link 2025-04-09T18:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@MarkPaddey Margin calls will be going out. [--] touches already 👀"
X Link 2025-04-09T19:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@anthonyisonline .Amazing how only LMND was updated early 👀🍋🤨🧐"
X Link 2025-04-10T12:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CedarReseach You can read our article on it here: https://www.ironic-ape.com/#oc https://www.ironic-ape.com/#oc"
X Link 2025-04-10T17:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@anthonyisonline yes - next report won't be until May though. https://fintel.io/so/mx/lmnd%20*/morgan-stanley https://fintel.io/so/mx/lmnd%20*/morgan-stanley"
X Link 2025-04-11T06:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$LMND indirectly benefits from CBP tariff exemptions today on electronics and car parts slightly reducing claim costs in renters and auto insurance. No exemptions for lumber or steel leaving home unchanged. Overall the impact is modestly positive. https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDHSCBP/bulletins/3db9e55 https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDHSCBP/bulletins/3db9e55"
X Link 2025-04-12T13:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@fintechfusion Thanks - the challenge we have is that the X browser does not allow for typical YouTube videos to be embedded - as such we have had to use zero cookie embedded containers - this is not ideal. Looking for better alternatives atm. Maybe HQ Thumbnail links"
X Link 2025-04-14T14:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@fintechfusion If you have any log files from your experience - feel free to DM and well try and find the root cause if not the above - youre the first person to report problems"
X Link 2025-04-14T14:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ActAccordingly @CedarReseach TRUP rate hikes triggered a drop-off in search interest that same week. Overall pet Loss ratios nearly match LMND. LMNDs smoothing curve held up customer acquisition despite Q4/Q1 hikes. Cedar analysis only shows [--] side of the equation. Whats the CAC for Trup to recover NNA 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-04-15T13:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CedarReseach @ActAccordingly Not ignored - rate hikes were filed but often reduced by regulators. Maybe $LMNDs risk justified less With $300500 CaC they can afford to underprice short-term to grab share. Trup may get to rate adequacy first but whos still left when they do 👀"
X Link 2025-04-15T13:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CedarReseach @ActAccordingly Hmm interesting if theyve consistently filed below rate adequacy yet loss ratios are improving could point to superior risk segmentation and favourable future selection driven by ML State filings might be a stealth signal for future underwriting precision 💡😍 thanks 🙏"
X Link 2025-04-15T14:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"We are aware of some bugs I need @DomienVdE to change the data format in Column C to have no commas in it we spent many hours trying to find a work around without luck. DanielSchreibersBlueGlasses is an old entry for example. 🙏🙏"
X Link 2025-04-17T14:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"We did a fair bit of research for our Rigging the Risk pool research but thought wed update based on your posts as there is useful info there. Heres why this is not a concern in our opinion Whats the average age of insured pets at Lemonade About [---] years and net new policies are likely [--] months (give or take). Heres how we got there and why its not a problem. [--]. Customer Demographics: Lemonades customers are young (90% under [--] from their Q4 shareholder letter). Adoption patterns closely match Gen Z and younger Millennials. [--]. Pet Age (Supply-side): Shelter Animals Count (2023 report) shows"
X Link 2025-04-18T21:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@anthonyisonline @DomienVdE The chart was updated and should show correctly on the site now I was wondering how long it would take for people to spot it the pic 😅 - site was also live for [--] weeks without anyone telling me community was spelt incorrectly 🤦♂"
X Link 2025-04-22T10:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Gabesknows They gave Chewy the options - only 181k of warrants were executed before the deal was dissolved - no risk of dilution https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_ff7217c239b549df9a4364c44c137ffd.pdf https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_ff7217c239b549df9a4364c44c137ffd.pdf"
X Link 2025-04-24T04:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@AndersReiche @bjmtweets Some points are valid - its a totally different picture assuming ongoing SA funding annually which has been the case SBC cash injection annually even before any other considerations. Depending on time availability - well share a deep dive"
X Link 2025-04-26T09:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@energy_tech_inv @bjmtweets Surprise could be many things - if fire losses come in under $20m announce they plan to re-accelerate past 30% CAGR launch a new line of business or strategic partnership"
X Link 2025-05-05T19:44Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Ive been following Lemonades open roles closely and my instinct is that tomorrow theyll announce an increased focus on indirect customer acquisition - doubling down on partnerships embedded finance and agency collaborations. My guess is this strategic pivot comes as a response to diminishing returns from Google Ads. You can have the best SEO in the world but if search behaviour shifts toward LLM-driven queries consistent direct-to-consumer acquisition will become significantly tougher despite a renewed focus on organic and Social that weve seen recently. Three live example roles today. If"
X Link 2025-05-05T20:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@KobeissiLetter lol - fed making a rate cut 🥲"
X Link 2025-05-06T21:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"no surprise - Softbank sold - explains the price movement"
X Link 2025-05-07T10:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"More SoftBank Sells"
X Link 2025-05-08T10:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I dont typically advocate cross investments between portfolio companies but a strategic $50m mutual investment or equity swap between Lemonade (LMND) and IonQ (IONQ) at current valuations ($30/share $6.2B market cap) would be highly compelling. IonQs leading position in quantum computing recently underscored by their DARPA partnership could enable Lemonade to directly influence advancements in quantum-driven risk selection for insurance while IonQ would benefit from aligning closely with a high-growth AI-driven insurance innovator. Given Lemonades strength in underwriting technology and"
X Link 2025-05-09T23:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Some interesting posts from new shareholders recently 😆👻👻"
X Link 2025-05-10T10:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"More Softbanks Sells 🫠 - holding above $30 with this sell pressure when they stop its going to rip"
X Link 2025-05-10T10:33Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Wow This could be awesome for $LMND Most animal drugs are just rebranded human drugs if savings are also passed through could be awesome unexpected boost to Gross Profit and EPS. If vet-drug costs drop 3050% (assuming meds are 25% of Pet claims) Lemonade could gain $1530m extra gross profit in the next [--] months as the cost of claims decreased. Improved loss ratios may also boost reinsurance ceding commissions adding another $511m. Total potential upside: $2041m or 1122% above Lemonades current annual gross profit run-rate ($185m). Key assumptions: Human drug-price cuts fully flow to vet"
X Link 2025-05-11T23:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@AJ_Invests_Co @Ze1ooooo Might be the fidelity app and the way it renders the label on the app quick screen record of you recording live and clicking through"
X Link 2025-05-13T03:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"More SoftBank sales 🤦♂🫠. Actually impressive that lemonade is still holding strong above $30 - stock is even up 6.46% since SoftBank started offloading roughly 35% of their stake since December Itll probably be very obvious the day they stop selling. But honestly trimming into a technical breakoutwho authorises that theyre leaving so much money on the table. If theyd just let it run 🤯 Theyre selling consumer tech to pivot to AI infrastructure. Feels like another Nvidia moment in the making - SoftBank might seriously regret this move down the line"
X Link 2025-05-13T04:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Been thinking a lot about these recent SoftBank share sales of $LMND. Initially it made me pretty nervous (do they know something we dont - I dont by the way I just think since the Trump announcement they need to raise cash) and while seeing a large holder sell is never ideal it might actually explain something important: Why has institutional ownership lagged behind expectations especially given Lemonades clear progress towards profitability and strong retail sentiment Heres one possible reason When one shareholder (like SoftBank) owns a substantial stake (typically over 10%) index providers"
X Link 2025-05-13T13:46Z [----] followers, 11K engagements
"Its strange I bought in at IPO because Id followed Lemonade before they went public and loved their approach and management. I put 10k in as a punt even though it seemed expensive at the time relative to their scale. But at that early stage youre really investing in the leadership and vision not just the current valuation. When the stock dropped I just kept adding my conviction growing stronger and stronger with each passing quarter. Fast forward to today theyre now cash flow positive only a couple of years from net profitability yet still remarkably undervalued compared to what theyve built"
X Link 2025-05-13T17:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"He wants people to love him and he needs inflation down more to force feds hand pharma make up 8.8% of CPI but the only way that comes down is the end user spends less - the only way to get that to happen is to ensure manufacturer savings are passed to the end buyer HIms and others could otherwise buy cheap and keep margins higher not passing as much onto the user you think hell stop just because its HIms - hes pushing for popularity and mid terms and rate reductions he doesnt give two shits about HIms or their margins. imo"
X Link 2025-05-13T18:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@bjmtweets And when they sold out of Uber"
X Link 2025-05-13T22:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ShadyJosh5 @PaperBagInvest Haha you panicked me for a minute Shouldnd post on X when on strong pain killers lol - then remembered why it was roughly offset based on 80% of Sythetic agents growth being funded off balance sheet will update later"
X Link 2025-05-14T07:23Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@MilknHoneyCap Whats your buy for LMND ;)"
X Link 2025-05-14T13:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"No signs of SoftBank selling $LMND shares over the past couple of days. It appears they haven't crossed below the 10% ownership threshold yet as doing so would require filing an updated Schedule 13D or 13G to inform the market. If they drop below 10% their future transactions will only be visible through quarterly 13F filings or annual proxy statements unless they fall below a 5% ownership stake. A huge thank you to everyone supporting Ironic Apewe've surpassed [---] followers in just around [--] weeks We've also seen impressive engagement with [----] unique site visitors averaging [--] minutes per"
X Link 2025-05-14T15:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"No more announcements from SoftBank until they cross below 5%. Heres their latest round of sales: notably theyre offloading steadily around the $32$33 range yet incredibly the stock continues to hold firm 😍 In my wildest dreams I never imagined $LMND would sustain these price levels with such persistent selling pressure from its largest external holder. This strength hints at solid underlying institutional demand absorbing the supply without major dips Having ridden this stock from $183 down to $10 and now climbing back up I take comfort in knowing these fluctuations often dont reflect true"
X Link 2025-05-15T04:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"At this rate youre going to end up holding just two stocks - and ironically both have modest dividend yields (Google at 0.5% and UnitedHealth at 2.7%). Might be time for a rebrand 🤦♂ - it was a tough lesson for me to learn to be patient and wait for support to kick in before loading up might not catch the very bottom but far less risk involved"
X Link 2025-05-15T04:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"$LMND is the antidote for frustrated $UNH investors and hopefully one day customers - there would never be a better time to announce a new line of business 😉 - put simply its insurance reimagined. Site updated to show you exactly why: http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com"
X Link 2025-05-15T20:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Honestly I think its best to use both Net Earned Premium and Revenue when valuing LMND. NEP gives a clearer picture of actual underwriting performance and book value while Revenue captures the broader growth story including commissions and investment income. Gross Earned Premium isnt ideal because it includes premiums Lemonade pays directly out to reinsurers - so it inflates the actual revenue and risk retained by Lemonade. Since Lemonade is fundamentally a tech-driven company operating in insurance using NEP and Revenue together provides the most accurate and holistic picture IMO 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-05-20T23:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"WTF happened - it was 0.7% up LMND and I got on a plane and landed at its +7% And ionQ 40% 🫠"
X Link 2025-05-22T19:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ChrisCamillo genuinely curious your take on $LMND. My un-evolved dumb ape thesis here complete with 7-year financial projections in my first article Bullish AF 🦧. DCF @15% discount = $64 vs todays $32 🤷♂. Loved by customers strong retail community growing fast. Investors anchored to past burns missing clear recent progress. Seems like your MO http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com"
X Link 2025-05-24T02:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Theres absolutely no reason for the stock to be trading at these levels anymore IMO - t simply doesnt make sense to me. Even applying a conservative 15% discount rate the DCF fair value today is $64 per share ($115 at 10%). With zero debt over $1bn in cash and investments cash flow positive EBITDA positive next year and profitable by [----] its primed to become a cash-generating machine. .And on a nice pullback ready for its next leg up Full analysis at http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com"
X Link 2025-05-24T07:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@BagelC47 In case you ever want the actual slides from investor day [--] - theyre here Easier than trying to take screen shots from the video ;) This was one of my favourite slides of the event too 👌 https://s24.q4cdn.com/139015699/files/doc_presentations/2024/Lemonade-Investor-Day-2024.pdf https://s24.q4cdn.com/139015699/files/doc_presentations/2024/Lemonade-Investor-Day-2024.pdf"
X Link 2025-05-24T08:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Who doesnt enjoy a casual browse through trademark databases on a Saturday night after a few sangrias It looks like $LMND had their trademark approved in Canada in July last year 👀 Not sure Ive seen this shared or any discussion around Canada expansion in the community before $45bn TAM about to be added 👀🍋"
X Link 2025-05-24T18:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"I should have been clearer- They were net cash flow positive Q3 [----] and Q4 [----] went cash flow negative q1 [----] but will be cash flow positive on a consistent basis [----] - they took a $25m+ impact Q1 due to LA fires but moving forward should be CF+ The debt is funding (more like a cash advance from General Catalyst - it operates more like a cash advance than a loan. Its Performance-Based Obligation: If the premium stream from a cohort is insufficient to repay GCs investment plus the fixed return GC bears the loss. Lemonade has no obligation to cover the shortfall and GC has no recourse"
X Link 2025-05-25T02:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Also - the balance sheet is not really representative for LMND as 80% of growth is funded off balance sheet - so it doesnt show the GC $400m or so that has been made available to them to fund growth and given the debt is contingent on performance- this is why I say it largely has no debt. Hope that makes sense. So in their Balance sheet 100% of growth spend shows up as a liability where as in reality they still have 80% of that sitting as cash in their bank account. So the shareholder equity should really be adjusted to include the 80% of cash thats still sitting in their accounts - but is not"
X Link 2025-05-25T02:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Im hoping they double down on indirect partner acquisition and organic cross-selling with a particular emphasis on clearing that car insurance waitlist at least until theyre profitable. Having said that I just revisited the recent earnings call transcripts. Tim mentioned theyd target approximately $165 million in S&M spend for [----] with absolute spend in dollars increasing in [----] and [----] but the relative percentage growth slowing compared to previous years. Id initially used a simple straight-line approach based on Q1 multiplied by four for [----] but Tim specifically called out a reduction"
X Link 2025-05-26T03:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Want to quickly show a mate how $LMND Net Income is trending whether theres enough capital to cover regulatory surplus or even take on the dreaded unknown combined ratio 👻👻 - but big spreadsheets arent really your thing Hopefully this helps Live in Beta. There will be bugs so let me know if you spot any More data points will be added in time and some visual tweaks"
X Link 2025-05-26T21:19Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"🚨 $LMND technical breakout 📈 After years of people asking why Im bullish on Lemonade Insurance I decided to consolidate all my personal insights and research into one place making it easy for everyone to understand. The stock just broke out of its downward trend and Call:Put ratios are leaning bullish and their forecast to be EBITDA+ next year curious whether this could indicate a swing trade or a long-term investment opportunity Check out (not financial advice)your one-stop resource for everything Lemonade Insurance 🍋🐵 Invested or thinking of investing follow for the latest news and"
X Link 2025-05-28T10:28Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Id never considered this before but honestly the synergy makes perfect sense That said Id genuinely be disappointed with just a 24x buyout at todays prices. Initially Id hoped Lemonade might partner with PayPal to offer enhanced Extended Seller Protectiondynamically identifying and risk-scoring each product in a sellers basket instantly providing tailored quotes for coverage like accidental damage for TVs or travel insurance for holidays. However nowadays it actually feels like Apple would be a better fitcovering both their own products directly and every single transaction made via Apple Pay"
X Link 2025-05-28T19:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Neil_X10 @ssmith3088 @bigmark419 @DomienVdE @CarioCapital @daschreiber @shai_wininger They should just partner and integrate to the stack like Affirm and Klarna have"
X Link 2025-05-28T19:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I dont know exactly what the stock price will do in the short term but Im confident in the long-term trend. That said with the recent Court of International Trade ruling Trump is bound to be very vocal on social media - which combined with the current technical setup suggests were in for a wild and very volatile few days ahead - strap in"
X Link 2025-05-29T04:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Swapped out some gains from CELH and SPY the last few weeks to flip into $LMND - down to small DCA buys until July 🙁"
X Link 2025-05-29T13:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"🚀 Want a quick way to see what your $LMND holdings might be worth in the future Just enter your share count and choose the valuation multiple you prefer the model will do the rest. ✨ Ive also made a few updates: Improved the visual layout Made it easier to remove selected items Added a loading progress screen 📈 Historical share prices are shown using the midpoint of each years high/low range. Enjoy and as always let me know if you spot any bugs ✈ Ill be on a plane most of the day so replies or updates might be a bit delayed. N.B Not financial advice DYOD. http://Ironic-ape.com"
X Link 2025-05-30T05:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Well fu*k me. interest jumped somewhat 😍 - is this a proxy for $LMND interest 🤷♂ http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com"
X Link 2025-05-30T18:17Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Seriously WTF Bots 🤯"
X Link 2025-05-30T20:53Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@teslanopoly @Veganhippo21 30k. Right now"
X Link 2025-05-31T17:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"For those who arent familiar with $LMND Ive compiled a comprehensive collection of the best insights from investor days management interviews my original analysis financial projections and a diverse range of opinions from the over [----] strong retail community on Please note that this information is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. DYOD. http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com"
X Link 2025-05-31T19:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"When VCs finally start digging into native AI full-stack companies like $LMND theyll need to invent a whole new valuation class. And I for one cant f*cking wait. 😁🥳 Maybe then theyll realise why you cant box it in as just insurance or just tech. $LMND gets shoutout in the startup podcast on AI https://t.co/praUYg1zzT $LMND gets shoutout in the startup podcast on AI https://t.co/praUYg1zzT"
X Link 2025-05-31T20:09Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"They essentially have no debt. However this is shown as a liability in their balance sheet due to the way they report. The debt is essentially a cash advance provided by General Catalyst to fund 80% of their growth. If youre interested theres a video at the bottom of my site from Dom that explains the mechanics of it http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com"
X Link 2025-06-01T09:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Andrewmoto97 @PaperBagInvest And those that DCAed will be very well rewarded 🤑"
X Link 2025-06-01T09:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Andrewmoto97 @PaperBagInvest IPO and ever since along the way average was down below [--] but been averaging up recently"
X Link 2025-06-01T09:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$LMND social sentiment on X is overwhelmingly positive right now and its not just a blip. You can feel the shift across the community. Heres how sentiment has evolved over just the past week and ohhh how things have changed from just a few months ago Apparently is now a pretty accurate sentiment tracker for $LMND too I couldnt resist checking the data 😎🤣 Also worth noting: $LMND authors are up 51.1% week-over-week. Momentum is building. 🚀 These tools aren't cheap - like and follow if you find value 🙏 http://Ironic-Ape.com http://Ironic-Ape.com"
X Link 2025-06-01T16:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The fundamentals are far stronger than the balance sheet implies. Lemonade $LMND has hundreds of millions in available cash funding 80% of growth spend off-balance sheet yet GAAP and insurance regulatory accounting principles require them to report 100% of that spend as a liability. IMO a massive inflection point is rapidly approaching. Check out my detailed assumptions and comprehensive 7-year financial models at - keen to hear your thoughts http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com"
X Link 2025-06-01T18:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$LMND overnight volume higher than Microsoft Netflix Coinbase and catching up with $GME 🫣🍋🔥"
X Link 2025-06-02T05:55Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"How much am I going to spend buying $LMND stock today. $100 $1000 $5000 $10000 $20000 - you guys are in total control 😅 - [--] new followers = [--] share of $LMND - so far we're at $33 😂"
X Link 2025-06-02T11:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Why not $LMND"
X Link 2025-06-02T13:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@STICKSAND1 Everyone should do whats right for them fu*ck the judgement - no one knows anyone elses personal situation. That said - Im buying more 😅"
X Link 2025-06-02T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Two people in my office bought this morning before the pump all day WTF they also bought TSLA with me at $225 😂"
X Link 2025-06-02T17:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"🤫 enjoyable train ride home tonight $LMND #lemonapes"
X Link 2025-06-02T17:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Nick_Lamparelli Not a buffet stock IMO - but great underlying financials quickly improving fast approaching an inflection point with very little risk of insolvency vs the risk reward of upside on the stock at current prices 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-06-03T04:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@FundasyInvestor @FromValue Okay - you tell me what would be more realistic in your view and why"
X Link 2025-06-03T16:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@FundasyInvestor @FromValue Why do you think Growth has to slow to Mid teens Okay I'll bite on 70% GLR and Why would expense ratio scale down much slower"
X Link 2025-06-03T16:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@FundasyInvestor @FromValue [--]. So you think my assumptions in increased growth spend from $165m to $300m annually over the period is not sufficient - what do you think it needs to be to sustain 30% Growth rate then and why"
X Link 2025-06-03T16:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"In insurance AI has become the new digital transformation - vague overused and mostly meaningless. Unless they explain what kind of AI theyre using theyre probably just repackaging old tech with a shiny label or buying a Chat-GPT subscription. Lets break it down: LLMs help generate documents code answer policy questions and script CX chats. Great for efficiency - but they dont assess risk or settle claims. Graph-based systems spot fraud rings behavioural anomalies and connected claims that rule engines miss. Rules-based automation is what most incumbents rely on - and thats not AI. Thats just"
X Link 2025-06-04T06:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@HenryInvests No backsies 🤝"
X Link 2025-06-06T12:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@HolySmokas The same thing we buy every day Pinky. $LMND @AndersReiche"
X Link 2025-06-06T19:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Once it hits $100 or so suspect the real fomo kicks in the inevitable screenshots will start flowing showing hundreds of percentage point gains and then the really interesting move happens from retail.like $PLTR $HIMs $HOOD etc as I called out on Nicks post this morning - at the moment - its not retail buying this time yet (despite Jakes best efforts 😂)"
X Link 2025-06-07T08:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PaperBagInvest Amazon Netflix Stripe Adyen PornHub Revolut Spotify Uber AirBNB Wise. You dont need to be a genius to see where this is going"
X Link 2025-06-07T08:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Nick_Lamparelli @jakebrowatzke How much do you think they will need to hit their growth goals in $"
X Link 2025-06-10T12:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Veganhippo21 I retract this - I thought you were shorting LMND 😂"
X Link 2025-06-10T15:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Nick_Lamparelli @AndersReiche @cvalente28 Sorry - community =$25m vs actual $29m But far below the $67.2m KBW estimate and others we saw above $180m The community absolutely nailed this one"
X Link 2025-06-10T16:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"I think this is a classic example of IBM having the right idea years ahead of its time but the culture and a reluctance to invest held them back from executing fast enough. 🤷♂ Funny story I actually applied to IBMs grad programme years ago. Spent two hours carefully completing their online forms thoughtfully answering every question clicked submit and two seconds later got an instant rejection. Why Poor A-levels Ds and Es. 🤯 Somehow I still made it into university worked my arse off and graduated top of my class with a 1st. Id completely turned it around. But IBM by design was looking"
X Link 2025-06-11T06:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"My first message and first chat with O3-Pro. I had too. $LMND https://chatgpt.com/share/68496527-4670-8012-8397-3ed2a9c72cf3 https://chatgpt.com/share/68496527-4670-8012-8397-3ed2a9c72cf3"
X Link 2025-06-11T11:18Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"China / US trade deal done and CPI under expectations. LFG $LMND 🚀"
X Link 2025-06-11T12:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Matfitz22 @alc2022 Its not about how much they spend spend is largely irrelevant- its ability to execute Ai and embed it well into their organisations - which will be very tough https://www.ironic-ape.com/post/the-myth-of-a-quick-fix-why-legacy-insurers-can-t-just-add-palantir-or-any-other-provider-and-o https://www.ironic-ape.com/post/the-myth-of-a-quick-fix-why-legacy-insurers-can-t-just-add-palantir-or-any-other-provider-and-o"
X Link 2025-06-11T15:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Matfitz22 @alc2022 They dont need too - its not a winner takes all market to the point regulators would not allow it 🤷♂ QuestionStripe or Adyen outspend WorldPay Global Payments Barclays or PayPal"
X Link 2025-06-11T16:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Id actually like them to double down on renters and pet - its a differing view to the majority that want them to push car - Pet and renters are the profit center of the business they have short tail risk exposure and allows them to retain far more capital for growth without needing such high capital reserves. X number of renters policies = Y car policies. They could continue to scale renters and pet for years at 30% - expanding globally before hitting any kind of saturation point. Pet and renters are the launchpad for longer tail riskier product lines. That said - its vital they expand the"
X Link 2025-06-11T16:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Close above $42 🚀 $LMND"
X Link 2025-06-11T20:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Its a little more complicated than this. @PaperBagInvest as we talked earlier in the week would be good to revisit the old LTV:CAC video - clearly still a lot of confusion around the unit economics. A significant portion of Lemonades cost structure is essentially flat - technology and G&A expenses have held steady for the past several years despite meaningful growth in the customer base. What often gets overlooked is the loss-ratio glide path. If the current trajectory continues - especially with recent price increases filed with state regulators - this will become a key driver of improving"
X Link 2025-06-11T22:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@amitisinvesting A joint show with @bjmtweets @PaperBagInvest for $LMND would be awesome. Given your following - perhaps its worth you reaching out directly to @daschreiber to see if hed be happy to do an interview with you Its pretty clear my opinion on the company"
X Link 2025-06-12T06:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"It wasnt a data breachit was a design flaw identified internally and resolved before any malicious activity could occur. They acted responsibly by promptly reporting and addressing the issue. In my opinion pursuing a class action here is pointless; it feels like ambulance-chasing against a company that followed best practices and swiftly prioritised a fix once the bug was discovered. Bugs exist in all software; no system is flawless. Will we soon see class actions for every zero-day exploit 🤦♂ https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_ff7217c239b549df9a4364c44c137ffd.pdf"
X Link 2025-06-13T11:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@KrishnaY152841 @MitchMartan98 @JoeyTphilly https://chatgpt.com/share/68334a05-45c0-8012-bad4-3fc20bb966c8 https://chatgpt.com/share/68334a05-45c0-8012-bad4-3fc20bb966c8"
X Link 2025-06-16T05:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"While I made a joke yesterday on this the reality is Brian provides some of the most detailed and well thought out content on $LMND and his stock picks - he really digs into the detail of stuff and takes a very practical and considered approach - well worth a follow My entire portfolio live trades and allocation breakdown is now live here on Savvy Trader: https://t.co/NOYRT2mPUT My entire portfolio live trades and allocation breakdown is now live here on Savvy Trader: https://t.co/NOYRT2mPUT"
X Link 2025-06-17T10:56Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Veganhippo21 @psterky @PaperBagInvest @Neil_X10 @bjmtweets @daschreiber Thanks for sharing - really good to hear the latest after a few months of use"
X Link 2025-06-17T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Retest of previous support of $38 anyone buying just curious In the pub trying to prove a point Yes buying Holding Sold some Selling everything Yes buying Holding Sold some Selling everything"
X Link 2025-06-17T18:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Veganhippo21 @STICKSAND1 @Neil_X10 @psterky @PaperBagInvest @bjmtweets @daschreiber Approaching your technical buy point 👀 - $36-38 - can we expect $2 or $3 million buy tomo 😂 Ill be watching for the candle 😂 - any chance you dont paper hand it this time P.s. you know we love you. 😂"
X Link 2025-06-17T22:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@amitisinvesting @jakebrowatzke And so it begins 🙌 - some content from the retail community Mangement and my own $LMND content here on http://Ironic-ape.com http://Ironic-ape.com"
X Link 2025-06-18T21:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@DeepValueBagger Unless youve worked in both industries (FIAT and Crypto) - its impossible to understand how different they are. Long crypto"
X Link 2025-06-19T07:08Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Ask yourself: What happens when the worlds most technologically advanced insurer is also the most shorted insurance stock globallywith roughly one-third of its shares shortedand suddenly the entire global retail investor community decides to buy simultaneously People think $OSCR has moved quicklybut do they remember the explosive early days of $GME leaping over 100% in a single day Unlike $GME Lemonade ($LMND) possesses a genuine fundamental catalyst: the primary constraint on its growth is regulatory surplus. Picture this: if $LMND experiences a similar short-squeeze surging overnight to a"
X Link 2025-06-20T05:03Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@DarioBundi If LMND ever gets to the point where its so successful that its causing deflation across the US - and youre invested now I dont think youll ever have to worry 😂"
X Link 2025-06-20T07:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jakebrowatzke @amitisinvesting Review Adinas interview from insure tech london its on - there are some absolutely lovely quotes and golden nuggets of information - its one of my all time fav interviews. http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com"
X Link 2025-06-20T07:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Car is ramping and the community @PaperBagInvest is scheduling an interview with the head of car there soon. Stay tuned Also - its important to consider its not really about the number of states its about the total reach they gain access too from the states they launch. If they launch [--] states and get access to 80% of the car TAM thats a better use of time and resource than trying to just go after every state. Their most recent state opens up a large chunk already"
X Link 2025-06-20T07:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Just think for a second What happens if [----] retail investors share this chart today 🤷♂ Imagine if each share brought three more people into the community over the weekend to learn and debate. If youre reading this for the first time and want to know more there is a link to the community on my profile. This is NOT about pumping a stock I want to make that absolutely clear. A few weeks ago I shared a video about the first follower effect. Youre all witnessing that exact phenomenon play out in real time. Its deeply rooted in human psychology. If you missed it check it out here: This is simply"
X Link 2025-06-21T06:30Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Hopefully our friends at $LMND can get some much needed quality sleep tonight and enjoy taking their kids to the park tomorrow 🍋 De-escalation = Bullish for $LMND Maybe this is the catalyst we needed to push on up to $50 this week 🤷♂🙏"
X Link 2025-06-23T22:34Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$LMND and @amitisinvesting 🚀🚀👏👏🍋 Not one to be missed $PLTR $HOOD $TSLA $GRAB Thursday @ 10:30 pm EST set your calendars for a $LMND deep dive with @PaperBagInvest @jakebrowatzke and myself hosted by @amitisinvesting https://t.co/iBbv5JIWlg Thursday @ 10:30 pm EST set your calendars for a $LMND deep dive with @PaperBagInvest @jakebrowatzke and myself hosted by @amitisinvesting https://t.co/iBbv5JIWlg"
X Link 2025-06-24T13:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Pre-planned sale (setup last year) from Adina at $44 😢"
X Link 2025-06-24T14:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@energy_tech_inv Yeah but Ive averaged up a lot since then. I dont have my old trading account I switched apps around the same time as I was starting to take it more seriously So sold the old stuff and moved it to this account (which I still use) around the same time"
X Link 2025-06-24T18:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Im trying to work out if weve met in real life / had conference calls 😂 Your take on Circle is spot on at some point - theres nothing stopping them from doing a capital raise too its not like they havent got the investment accounts already setup to maximise yield on highly liquid assets 😂 I was absolutely gutted I missed this IPO Dante and the team are absolutely phenomenal The revenue per employee is just going to go parabolic - Ill be watching close the first few days after lock up ends will almost certainly buy the pullback on this one"
X Link 2025-06-24T19:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"They are only meant to sell a non FDA approved drug in the event of a shortage of the drug (they found a loophole) there is no longer a shortage - so they should not be selling it. They were working a loophole and milking margin for a long time Now the loophole should be closed and they are still pushing it now they have no choice as guidance would be materially impacted in terms of EPS investors hooked on the high margin knock off products - Until the GLP1 patents expire or they get their compound FDA cleared - how is this not a lawsuit waiting to happen 🤷♂ - I couldnt invest in them a year"
X Link 2025-06-24T22:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I blame my teachers parents and relentless obsession with winning - I was perfectly happy identifying as lazy but those relentless bastards forced me down a path which despite my best efforts of excessive drinking all inclusive resorts and late night love island binges - Im yet to find a way to transition back. 😅 Glad to see some fellow resulters here. Hopefully when the stock his $1000 the change to lazy will just naturally happen again. 🤷♂🙏"
X Link 2025-06-24T22:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Andrewmoto97 lol - fair one - but its algos selling off more insider sells just published - they executing options and selling - literally said above - technical analysis is shit if insiders sell 😂🤷♂"
X Link 2025-06-25T20:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"To suggest that Lemonade (LMND) has no insolvency risk at all is stretching things a bit to be fair. By their very nature all insurance companies inherently carry some degree of insolvency risk and this is an important consideration that investors need to weigh carefully against potential rewards. However given LMNDs current stage of maturitywith growth consistently between 3035%their insolvency risk remains very low. The scenario would only start to change if growth accelerated beyond 35% as that could cause the top line to outpace capital surplus growth more quickly than projected profits"
X Link 2025-06-26T11:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@davegirouard @Waymo Now do it for cameras 😂🫣"
X Link 2025-06-26T17:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@SixSigmaCapital Averaged up"
X Link 2025-06-26T17:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DomienVdE @Neil_X10 @PaperBagInvest @jakebrowatzke Its weird though cos when I went through their financial reporting it ranges between 12-14% - I was always a little confused by this"
X Link 2025-06-26T18:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@DomienVdE @Neil_X10 @PaperBagInvest @jakebrowatzke I had always assumed some cohorts had failed and churned - so the actual effective interest rate was closer to 13%"
X Link 2025-06-26T18:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@jakebrowatzke I actually think humanoid robots help reduce the manual expense of claims go look at this car or house and asses the real damage"
X Link 2025-06-26T18:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"ROOT LMND and OSCR investors are all like siblings 😂 - all fighting for the limelight but ultimately when they grow up they all replace the generation that came before. I can not rate Andy highly enough - there is no other retail investor that knows ROOT better and Ive learnt so much about them through debate over the years. Solid follow"
X Link 2025-06-26T21:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TrendSpider Just wait a couple interest rate changes annnnnnd 🚀"
X Link 2025-06-26T23:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Is it just me or does it feel like yesterdays absolute growth-stock sell-off was predicated on Wall Street knowing a China deal had been signed prompting them to exit positions or wanting to cover shorts lower before a potential rally upon announcement 🕵♂"
X Link 2025-06-26T23:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Its not just for the under [--] thats just their primary target demographic- I think the acquisition journey only gets exponentially better - look at the acceleration curve for Ai over the last [--] years. I dont think its long until you open the app and see a digital version of Maya - like a FaceTime call just asking you questions about what insurance you want - then sets up the policy for you. As a dyslexic - I HATE forms - voice and realtime video will be the standard in a short space of time is my bet they shared this vision at Insure Tech london a few months ago"
X Link 2025-06-27T12:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Of course not - they would have a real problem real fast if synthetic agent program went pop. The only options left would be capital raise more expensive terms or an external surplus note but given GC is one of their earliest investors and have renewed the agreement and expanded the capital allowance twice already on the same terms - Id argue the risk is pretty low - plus GC has now replicated this type of agreement with other companies like Grammerly etc - I dont see a world where they would be renewing and expanding the agreements if it wasnt NET positive for them take a look"
X Link 2025-06-27T18:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"The 16% is not all in year [--] its amortised over what ever period it needs to be so it could Be spread over [--] months or [--] months or [--] months typically after 16-20 months the 16% is fully repaid so the margin on the 1st renewal is higher and then higher again 2nd anniversary onwards it yes LR does need to come down but we will start to see margin improvement in the coming years as the early cohorts get fully repaid and they dont even need to change anything in their business to soon start benefiting from that margin expansion"
X Link 2025-06-28T19:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@FelixKern2 @bjmtweets @Neil_X10 @jakebrowatzke No its like a cash advance theres a fair few posts today on it and a detailed video at the bottom of the home page from Dom explaining it in detail on http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com"
X Link 2025-06-28T19:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"He works for an amazing organisation that I fully support his backing of the BCorp status makes sense now. Hes chief of staff at the moment it in insurance but looks like hes looked after his companies insurance relationships - having worked his way up but background is ProcurmentThats why he looks at this with a pure numbers view. Im sure hes excellent at his job but lacks the Experiance from a digital marketing customer experiance and technology perspective. In my experiance - procurement people make great value investors but terrible growth investors 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-06-28T20:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"What Wall Street is missing is that they are the future case study for low end disruption. If @ChrisCamillo spent an hour to watch this he would buy $LMND on open. Renters then Pet then car then everything else slowing moving up the value chain just like Hood and Tesla. Wall Street is just reading financial reports seeing unfavourable sales and marketing spend relative to IFP. They miss that $LMND is acquiring customers at a tiny absolute CAC value. As soon as cross sale of the 700k car wait list starts to progress the CAC:IFP ratio flips and they become insanely efficient. Soon the world"
X Link 2025-06-28T21:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"You dont understand how human behaviour and digital funnel acquisition works. 🤦♂ For the most partIts not about people actively deciding whether or not to buy a policy based purely on customer experience during their first interaction. Instead its about whether a customer with clear intent can seamlessly progress from one step in the checkout process to the next without friction. For example suppose a customer visits insurer A finds suitable pricing and coverage completes all required information and then clicks Pay only for their card to be declined. On average card authorisation rates are"
X Link 2025-06-29T15:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Okay they match their loss ratio but beat them in expense ratio. Its a hypothetical situation Nick the big boys can not match them on a car policy price - youre the Mangement consultant they can see Car book with adverse development theyre not sure why so they can no longer compete on price - they have set their EPS targets to the street and at this moment in time they know they are loosing market share to LMND car - what is your advise to the legacy carriers MT to ensure they hit their EPS targets. Its just a game youre the insurance expert - what advise do you give their board to focus on"
X Link 2025-06-29T20:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Sorry am I missing something here I may well be So please do enlighten me. For a typical U.S. personalauto writer the NAIC riskbasedcapital (RBC) charge is 2540% of net written premium If an insurers longrun cost of capital is 710% the drag on the P&L is roughly 24% of premium far smaller than normal underwriting expenses (815 % for large incumbents). And because of their reinsurance setup ceding 55% theirs was just 10.4% of net written premium in [----] (sure it will come with some reinsurance cost) but they also make 25% commission Expense trumps capital cost by an order of magnitude 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-06-29T20:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@PaperBagInvest https://www.ironic-ape.com/post/the-myth-of-a-quick-fix-why-legacy-insurers-can-t-just-add-palantir-or-any-other-provider-and-o https://www.ironic-ape.com/post/the-myth-of-a-quick-fix-why-legacy-insurers-can-t-just-add-palantir-or-any-other-provider-and-o"
X Link 2025-06-30T07:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jakebrowatzke Its always obvious with foresight 😏 $LMND is 100% next IMO"
X Link 2025-06-30T09:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"So I guess $HOOD is going into SP500 next time round 😂"
X Link 2025-06-30T16:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Renewed and quota shared reduced from 55% to 20% - revenue about to accelerate Lemonade Announces Successful Renewal of Reinsurance Program - https://t.co/l5zbEUrFlf Lemonade Announces Successful Renewal of Reinsurance Program - https://t.co/l5zbEUrFlf"
X Link 2025-06-30T19:45Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"The key question we need to answer is the impact to capital surplus over time - working it now"
X Link 2025-06-30T20:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@bjmtweets Every single $LMND short seller waking up today 😂"
X Link 2025-07-01T06:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"If they are shorting $LMND here they are fools. Revenue is about to explode Profit bought far closer unless there is some MAJOR cat event (and I mean MAJOR) - they are not going to go insolvent. and EVEN IF regulators asked for more surplus they will be consistently profitable by that point and raising an external Surplus note with reasonable commercial terms would be far easier yeah it may reduce margin a little for a couple years.(and thats really the worse case the more I think about this) but In my humble opinion. I thought the shorts were screwed before. now I think they are royally"
X Link 2025-07-01T08:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Algos. Guideance was 30% revenue growth YOY now 60%+ YOY with most of that acceleration happening in just H2 algo dumb. algo BUY When they didnt same thing selling of Adyen cos they changed the way they reported revenue a few years back it creates real pressure one way or another on the stock - and how many algos will step in to cover short coverage if it gets close to margin calls or just the emotional stress of a very real short squeeze occurring - Im not sure what percentage of short sellers will be able to afford to outrun any kind of rational reset of expectations - who knows All I know"
X Link 2025-07-01T10:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Weekly DCA - have to admit - its getting sad to see the number of shares being bought each week go down 😅 but it is nice to see the portfolio balance go up 😂🥳 $LMND"
X Link 2025-07-01T15:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"We see you Bob 🤫its okay well keep your $LMND secret 🤐 Setting that [--] month price target at $24 and loading up 624k shares during a period where the lowest price was $31 🤣 👏👏 - for the record I actually like most of Bobs earning calls questions but at some point you have to question an average return per transaction of + 1.2%"
X Link 2025-07-01T16:07Z [----] followers, 15.4K engagements
"@ArranGray9 @ssmith3088 @RklbsFan @ShadyJosh5 @Andrewmoto97 London - pain in the arse to justify weekend away with kids at home - imagine @ShadyJosh5 will be the same this boy wont spend [--] on a beer - you thinkll buy a plane ticket to Scotland lol"
X Link 2025-07-01T20:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$SOFI is bullish AF beautiful chart and institutional buyers loading up. $OSCR doing strange things AF but suspect this dip gets bought or we fill the gap around $14 and then rally hard back up from there. My best guess on $LMND we see a continuation and a retest of $53 and the surprise revised revenue guidance pushes it through to retest $72ish over the next few months 🤷♂ Added $LMND today as I always do lol and IF we get to the $14 range on Oscr; Ill be adding"
X Link 2025-07-01T22:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"BTC will be forked and encryption will be changed to be quantum resistant same for standard protocols. Going to be a big engineering task for sure. But its possible. Either it happens slowly and proactively with a few left behind that become exposed or something radical happens in Quantum faster than people expect and overnight like the Y2K bug the whole world freaks out and rapidly deploys fixes"
X Link 2025-07-02T06:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@jrouldz @ruth_capital Yeah - I had to add during the April dip absolute gift"
X Link 2025-07-02T17:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Just for fun. $HOOD and $LMND charts - $LMND adjusted to the left from the 3rd week of July [----] 👀"
X Link 2025-07-02T18:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@HolySmokas $LMND - http://ironic-ape.com http://ironic-ape.com"
X Link 2025-07-02T20:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CreativeCap89 See what $LMND does tomo could retest $40 or bounce here 🤷♂ - jobs data will be interesting- could trigger a nice dip"
X Link 2025-07-02T22:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$LMND still Low-cost disruption at its finest. Theyre targeting the parts of the insurance market the big players overlook then moving up the value chain - acquiring millions of customers at a low absolute CAC then cross-selling into traditionally higher-CAC more valuable product lines organically - which will shortly materially change the LTV:CAC unit economics- The global TAM is enormous (Trillions $) they have US licences in [--] states and across UK and EU (a moat against other insure tech disruptors)- they have the best technical teams (even validated by Open Ai this week in their"
X Link 2025-07-03T07:00Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@shai_wininger @Lemonade_Inc Whats the period over period time period its measured over out of curiosity"
X Link 2025-07-03T15:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@shai_wininger @STICKSAND1 Wait You have different workflows for evidence collection based on risk profiles at the POS 🤯"
X Link 2025-07-03T16:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@shai_wininger @STICKSAND1 I have to admit - I quite like this - instead of an instant decline - its - okay we need some more info"
X Link 2025-07-03T16:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I doubt it - if they are low risk they are accepted early in the funnel only if they are higher risk are they asked for additional info whats the alternative - decline your acquiring a percentage of customers that would have otherwise been declined (during a stage in the acquisition funnel that youve just paid a significant amount on PPC to get there) but it does show that its important to balance the NPS from the initial conversion uplift benefit to the detractor impact of a higher friction experiance"
X Link 2025-07-03T17:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Because its based on machine learning you can model things like: if a person lives in a certain area the average age of homes there is X years; if the home is X years old it likely has a particular type of water heater or gas boiler installed; those boilers in turn tend to fail after Y years depending on when they were manufactured. The layers of decision-making grow exponentially with ML. You can go even deeper: homes in this postcode were often built by these particular construction firms and Builder A typically used slate roofing while Builder B used flat tar roofs even the postcode itself"
X Link 2025-07-03T17:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@njnairinvest82 @shai_wininger @STICKSAND1"
X Link 2025-07-03T17:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"You know I had the combined ratio on my site for going back for years and projecting forward 😂 - its out of date now and will actually be much better given the change to reinsurance as absolute expense cost is a lower percentage of revenue now following the reinsurance changes. Ive shared my thoughts in glass door reviews many times to you. And Ive explained my thoughts on car and they I appreciated managements approach to scaling pet before Car given the long tail risk dynamics at play with car"
X Link 2025-07-04T14:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@KrishnaY152841 @RklbsFan @mauerstrasse @mvcinvesting @TradeSignalHQ If LMND is a small position for you - why is it the only thing you post about"
X Link 2025-07-04T15:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@KrishnaY152841 @RklbsFan @mauerstrasse @mvcinvesting @TradeSignalHQ I saw - its almost like you follow the LMND community on their other stock picks 😂"
X Link 2025-07-04T16:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@psterky @Jaktier1 @PaperBagInvest I was honestly surprised to see ClearCover there they are monoline car only they have very poor customer reviews on Trustpilot they have shrunk their book by something like 15% YOY and -21% QOQ and theyre US only"
X Link 2025-07-04T16:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I like the stock - Fair Share price today $95.16 IMO - revised model based on the new quota share I've also taken on community feedback and increased the SG&A spend and made the GLR improve less aggressively in [----] (I know there was a lot of pushback on this but just looking at the mean trend improvement QoQ I think it's doable. I've now included a basic P/E Fair price today discounted back and included into the blended Fair share price today (Book Value P/E and DCF combined). Spreadsheet and updated dashboards on - P.S. if you spot errors or you have any concerns - please do let me know I'm"
X Link 2025-07-04T21:32Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"link to the $LMND valuation sheet directly to explain how I get to a $95.16 fair share price today: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AFNxT-vC5O2Ubtl9yweLO1-C2pG2qE9n/editgid=1112138492#gid=1112138492 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AFNxT-vC5O2Ubtl9yweLO1-C2pG2qE9n/editgid=1112138492#gid=1112138492"
X Link 2025-07-04T21:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I built a separate model that had a full waterfall model for SA amortization it took a LONG time and I could never get the numbers to reconcile to be 100% perfect it was like 98% there but because I couldn't get it to reconcile perfectly I did not want to push it online. honestly I don't know if I'll ever go back and try and make it again"
X Link 2025-07-04T22:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"You should consider $LMND - now they have changed their reinsurance quota share - people will catch on shortly when they provide revised guidance showing multiple years of massive acceleration in revenue and bring profitability forward many quarters. My full workings below. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AFNxT-vC5O2Ubtl9yweLO1-C2pG2qE9n/editusp=drivesdk&ouid=100301227358639379316&rtpof=true&sd=true https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AFNxT-vC5O2Ubtl9yweLO1-C2pG2qE9n/editusp=drivesdk&ouid=100301227358639379316&rtpof=true&sd=true"
X Link 2025-07-05T06:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Others have also suggested a 15% discount rate - I had it originally at 10% and revised to 12% - the rational for this is that we are likely moving to a lower interest rate environment over the next few years which will ultimately reduce the cost of capital - I felt 12% is a fair balance between risk and the future cost of capital requirements 🤷♂ based on a [--] year model if I was pushing this out to [--] years I would move to 15%+ happy for the community to decide. 10% 12% 15% 13% 10% 12% 15% 13%"
X Link 2025-07-05T07:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@danielisdizzy History doesnt repeat but it does rhyme - LMND and HOOD charts with LMND adjusted to the left to matching start dates"
X Link 2025-07-05T12:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CathieDWood Previously you looked into $LMND and understandably werent keen on their high reliance on reinsurance. With this weeks announcement shifting retention dramatically up to 80% does this positively shift your perspective Profitability now appears imminent (EBITDA+ in 2026) significantly improving LTV:CAC efficiency alongside 700k existing customers eagerly queued for organic cross-selling into car insurance. 🤯 The stock is poised for a 40%+ CAGR appreciation over the next [--] years. 🤷♂ Gross loss ratios excluding catastrophic events are steadily improving by 2% quarter-over-quarter"
X Link 2025-07-05T14:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"To keep things balanceddespite the small sample of votesIve added two DCF scenarios: [--] % discount rate: Reasonable in light of where the company is in its scaling journey and the lower-rate environment were moving toward. [--] % discount rate: A more conservative hurdle. Over the next few weeks Ill clean up the model and run a fuller scenario analysis using additional valuation methods. (I do need to tread carefully though since the website dashboards are fed directly from this live file. 😅) Even at the more pessimistic [--] % rate the valuation still points to roughly [--] % upside. -"
X Link 2025-07-05T18:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"With the new quota share my best guess is that $LMND surpasses $PGR in revenue per employee sometime in [----]. $LMND: 30% CAGR with headcount growth at 8% annually (1235 to 2500). This achieves $4M IFP/employee at $10B IFP by [----]. $PGR: Adds 12k hires in [----] then grows headcount 5% per year (66k to 116k) with a 15% revenue CAGR based on historical trends. Headcount growth here is conservative vs. history assuming efficiency gains from AI for $PGR and LMNDs recruitment rate is 8% vs 2% YoY (what weve seen for the last few years.) When the industry poster boy gets outpaced by the new kid its"
X Link 2025-07-06T06:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"TL;DR: 🏆 Winner: $LMND Signed up for Google Gemini Ultra and just ran the first deep research test to determine which insurance disruptor wins. Est. $LMND Market Cap $131bn [----] It took around [--] minutes cited over [---] sources and reviewed roughly double that to produce the draft. I've uploaded the full unedited prompt as an image below and the complete deep research output is now available on in the file share section. 📑 Download the PDF here: (Full disclosure: I havent read through it all yet - it's LONG) Not surprising when you take human bias away to see ChatGPT o3-Pro and Gemini Ultra"
X Link 2025-07-06T08:59Z [----] followers, 10.4K engagements
"@KabraxFX @bjmtweets @BourbonCap @theTIKR @RootInsurance I mean Roots added [---] headcount over the same time period Lemoande has reduced total number by [--] - LMND have already guided for an increase in headcount to essentially double by the time they reach 4bn IFP 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-07-06T15:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@KabraxFX @bjmtweets @BourbonCap @theTIKR @RootInsurance lol - you think I hate root - I dont 😂🤷♂ Im just very confident LMND outperforms long term think both will be multiples larger than they are today in future"
X Link 2025-07-06T15:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@DividendDude_X What do you think of $LMND"
X Link 2025-07-06T20:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Okay and regulatory licences Impact to their margins and EPS if they decided to launch a full stack insurance carrier themselves They would just partner with Lemonade or another I see no world where a big social network or company like Hims builds themselves. Everyone seems to forget Amazon tried and failed"
X Link 2025-07-07T07:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Bear take - Lemonade will be disrupted by a bigger tech player with vastly more data money and resources 🤦♂ $LMND $AMZN"
X Link 2025-07-07T07:21Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@StockSavvyShay @fiscal_ai Because its undervalued growing consistently light crypto regulation loan debt forgiveness gone 😂 - why is it not $60 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-07-07T19:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@hollertotide Its even deeper than this read my article rigging the risk pool on they are structurally changing the risk profile of insurable customers available to the competition. They are stacking the deck in their favour. https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_2d45526a1c7a4786b97b0b7f912e312d.pdf http://ironic-ape.com https://www.ironic-ape.com/_files/ugd/2e79a8_2d45526a1c7a4786b97b0b7f912e312d.pdf http://ironic-ape.com"
X Link 2025-07-08T05:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"A colleague asked his financial advisor (that manages his portfolio) about investing in $LMND his feedback "It would not be my recommendation they are not profitable and I don't think they are even a real insurance company" This was the level of detail he went into with them. really. This is how early we are"
X Link 2025-07-08T11:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Hann3s_H What do you want to know - Im limited for time today"
X Link 2025-07-08T11:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@shai_wininger @Lemonade_Inc This is awesome - I read this as you've basically made an internal platform that lets you launch new lines of businesses and geographies with no code. Like Guidewires New Product Generator Tool for PolicyCenter but on steroids"
X Link 2025-07-08T12:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Having seen the market reaction to Loco launch today - its obvious they just dont understand the significance of this @shai_wininger - how about doing the boldest thing NO insurance company would ever do - Record or even live stream - from start to finish launching car in a new state or launching a new product / feature into production - show them what you can do in a few hours which takes most of them 6-12 months to launch. I mean - its bold 🫣 (even makes me nervous)😅😂 Who could ever argue with the technology advantage and agility then"
X Link 2025-07-08T18:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"This is what todays loco announcement means. This is NOT a little announcement. 🚀🍋 https://chatgpt.com/share/686d824e-27c8-8012-a866-e4873aa8a9a7 https://chatgpt.com/share/686d824e-27c8-8012-a866-e4873aa8a9a7"
X Link 2025-07-08T20:43Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Leinad7331 Im in disbelief 😂 Im weirdly okay as Ive got some cash coming July 26th 😅"
X Link 2025-07-08T20:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@stellacrypt33 @shai_wininger @Lemonade_Inc @avax They explored this a while back TBF. https://www.lemonade.com/blog/crypto-climate-coalition/ https://www.lemonade.com/blog/crypto-climate-coalition/"
X Link 2025-07-08T21:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@KabraxFX Until the market is surprised when revenue growth drops tremendously as growth slows once all premium has been earned in. By your argument - you should sell out of root now and buy LMND thats about to ride the same wave for the next [--] years 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-07-08T22:23Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@KabraxFX Revenue growth. Not revenue. Revenue will likely grow consistently as you say. Market pays a premium based on CAGR. As premium growth from their quota share matures the NEP and revenue growth rate will slow.and return back to a more normalised 20-25% CAGR. 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-07-08T22:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@andycyau @MrPoastMan LMNDs auto loss should improve by circa 10-12% YOY - think youre going to be surprised. Glad you agree on the cross sell CaC: LTV advantage @andycyau ☺ - looking forward to PBs car interview this week"
X Link 2025-07-09T05:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Santorini is beautiful - My first holiday with my now wife - about two days after we met for the first time - we joked about holidays being make or break - so we thought fu*k it - and just booked one there and then. Went on holiday [--] weeks after meeting engaged at [--] months pregnant [--] months together nearly [--] years and [--] kids. sometimes - when life gives you Lemons you just have to go all in. 😂🍋 Book it get one of the rooms carved out of the rock the sunsets with a beer from the hot tub were amazing"
X Link 2025-07-09T08:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Just going to leave this here - summary of the success rate and average return of all the analysts following LMND. Wrong 77% of the time and an average return per rating of -24.4% on all their calls on LMND🫣 The analyst that rates LMND the highest and a BUY with $60 target is also the best performing analyst across all. Funny that 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-07-09T11:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@Neil_X10 @Vittoriobenedet @jakebrowatzke @bjmtweets @PrestonJVictory @ShadyJosh5 I do not.Ive been a contractor at an insurance company in the past doing business process mapping and reengineering and worked on deploying large complex financial IT projects into many of them"
X Link 2025-07-09T21:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Enlighten me - thats why we are all here to learn. Im always open to being wrong and adjust accordingly. Im NOT an insurance expert and Ive never claimed to be one. But the point is - the TAM is not the limiting factor of growth here. Whether its $1 trillion3 or [--]. There is a HUGE addressable market 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-07-10T11:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"👀👀👀 - consider my eyes peeled. I like the sound of "just around the corner""
X Link 2025-07-10T14:57Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"100% would be stupid to argue they have not increased the risk of insolvency from a major CAT event. Of course they have - they have less reinsurance What would you class as a drastic improvement as a percentage Just curious - can you put a number to it Given you say they havent"
X Link 2025-07-10T20:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ricobert11 @Nick_Lamparelli Thats not balanced - this doesnt take into account forward looking rate changes already approved it doesnt account for improved risk selection from ML model advancements. It doesnt account for diversification of book to lower CAT sensitive lines. I could go on. 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-07-10T20:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I mean thats not what he said. He explained theyre choosing to reduce reinsurance because their underwriting performance is improving (which it is) - As a result theyll retain more premiums leading directly to increased revenue. Interestingly just a few weeks ago your whole argument centred around capital costs and separately how the community was dreaming if we thought they would ever reduce their reinsurance share- are you now contradicting your earlier position 🤷♂ The LTV models may well have changed to be unfavourable based on higher reinsurance costs (if we were to disbelieve leadership"
X Link 2025-07-10T21:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Everyone shorting $LMND presently at $39.77 please post your short positions in my comments now 🙏 Thank you for your attention to this matter"
X Link 2025-07-10T21:24Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ssmith3088 @bjmtweets Ill just keep buying while its under its fair price today 🤷♂"
X Link 2025-07-11T14:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@jrouldz Ahh man - you had time on those calls - bet you. $10 it will be higher than $20 by time of expiration"
X Link 2025-07-11T17:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"If they had taken a loan it would have had a higher detrimental effect on regulatory capital surplus as loans (other than a surplus note) has to be offset in regulatory surplus. If growth slowed they would still have the repayment obligations too. But even if growth went on track - it would impact their available surplus. For example - Loan arrives: Under statutory rules the insurer books +20m cash (asset) and +20m debt (liability). Assets minus liabilities is still 100m so surplus doesnt move. But thenCash is spent on marketing: Marketing outlay is expensed immediately so the 20m asset"
X Link 2025-07-11T17:52Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@alc2022 $LMND is a machine that monetises probability theory"
X Link 2025-07-11T21:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
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