#  @InvariantPersp1 Invariant Perspective Invariant Perspective posts on X about $usd, $smh, bubble, china the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours. ### Engagements: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1109642793582903296/interactions)  - [--] Week [-----] +20% - [--] Month [------] -14% - [--] Months [-------] +109% - [--] Year [-------] -46% ### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1109642793582903296/posts_active)  - [--] Week [--] +67% - [--] Month [---] +15% - [--] Months [-----] +145% - [--] Year [-----] -15% ### Followers: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1109642793582903296/followers)  - [--] Week [-----] +0.14% - [--] Month [-----] +0.02% - [--] Months [-----] +0.09% - [--] Year [-----] +2.90% ### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1109642793582903296/influencer_rank)  ### Social Influence **Social category influence** [finance](/list/finance) [countries](/list/countries) [stocks](/list/stocks) [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) [currencies](/list/currencies) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations) [exchanges](/list/exchanges) [us election](/list/us-election) [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands) **Social topic influence** [$usd](/topic/$usd), [$smh](/topic/$smh), [bubble](/topic/bubble), [china](/topic/china), [forex](/topic/forex), [inflation](/topic/inflation), [debt](/topic/debt), [$nvda](/topic/$nvda), [stocks](/topic/stocks), [$tlt](/topic/$tlt) **Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by** [@dimartinobooth](/creator/undefined) [@business](/creator/undefined) [@garymarcus](/creator/undefined) [@wsj](/creator/undefined) [@leadlagreport](/creator/undefined) [@redfin](/creator/undefined) [@soberlook](/creator/undefined) [@macroedgeres](/creator/undefined) [@biancoresearch](/creator/undefined) [@mayhem4markets](/creator/undefined) [@tyillc](/creator/undefined) [@fibonacciinves1](/creator/undefined) [@bloomberg](/creator/undefined) [@nickgerli1](/creator/undefined) [@federalreserve](/creator/undefined) [@dailychartbook](/creator/undefined) [@theterminal](/creator/undefined) [@markets](/creator/undefined) [@bradsetser](/creator/undefined) [@apolloglobal](/creator/undefined) **Top assets mentioned** [Spacemesh (SMH)](/topic/$smh) [NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)](/topic/$nvda) [SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY)](/topic/$spy) [Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [SPX6900 (SPX)](/topic/$spx) [Eclipse (ES)](/topic/$es) [Infinity Natural Resources, Inc (INR)](/topic/$inr) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl) [Oracle Corporation (ORCL)](/topic/$orcl) [Vixco (VIX)](/topic/$vix) [Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock (SMCI)](/topic/$smci) [KingDeFi (KRW)](/topic/$krw) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) ### Top Social Posts Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours "So much for the Fed rate "corridor". looks like a rate hike is happening whether the FOMC wants it or not Chart: The fed funds rate is now firmly above IOER - https://t.co/kCO6TxR9ed Chart: The fed funds rate is now firmly above IOER - https://t.co/kCO6TxR9ed" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1112929866305888256) 2019-04-02T04:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "Overcapacity = #deflation Capex weakens as central banks maintain currency wars. Not a surprise as easy money perpetuates overcapacity. https://t.co/gO7QNMlpl5 Capex weakens as central banks maintain currency wars. Not a surprise as easy money perpetuates overcapacity. https://t.co/gO7QNMlpl5" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1114284351833788416) 2019-04-05T21:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . US #deflation edition Plunge in core PPI inflation underscores that inflation cycle is the thing to watch. With ECRIs USFIG still falling inflation cycle downturn is not going away anytime soon. Plunge in core PPI inflation underscores that inflation cycle is the thing to watch. With ECRIs USFIG still falling inflation cycle downturn is not going away anytime soon" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1159924524969689088) 2019-08-09T20:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . US #Deflation Forecast edition Chart: The US stock market is sending a deflationary signal - https://t.co/eoVlDpILQr Chart: The US stock market is sending a deflationary signal - https://t.co/eoVlDpILQr" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1181859202630733824) 2019-10-09T09:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . US #Deflation edition "The only kind of deflation that really matters is that in our wages. The other deflation that becomes problematic is falling home prices." with the Money Tree Podcast 11.14.19 https://t.co/wSK6ix2IEy "The only kind of deflation that really matters is that in our wages. The other deflation that becomes problematic is falling home prices." with the Money Tree Podcast 11.14.19 https://t.co/wSK6ix2IEy" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1195021791493623808) 2019-11-14T16:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . US #Producer #Prices #Services edition Looks like the #Manfacturing #Recession is now spreading to #Services. That's quite the steep plunge We'll see if the #Fed #RateCuts #Repo #Operations and #NotQE have any effect. Note not so much the recent decline in services prices among producers but rather how high off trend these prices reached recently in current cycle which has been extraordinary on so many levels not just its length. @SoberLook https://t.co/MV2JVxmBYr Note not so much the recent decline in services prices among producers but rather how high off trend these prices" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1206000168811712512) 2019-12-14T23:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . US #Consumer #Confidence vs #PMI edition Eerie how similar the setup is to [--] years ago. except now: 1) financial system much more fragile 2) Trillion dollar budget deficits instead of surpluses 3) much lower economic growth rates 4) much lower interest rates Americans already don't like [----] as shown in this morning's Consumer Confidence Survey and have a perfect [--] out of [--] record in calling recessions https://t.co/HAVVfIzDZm Americans already don't like [----] as shown in this morning's Consumer Confidence Survey and have a perfect [--] out of [--] record in calling recessions" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1212231381444464640) 2020-01-01T04:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . China #RealEstate #Bubble edition Can you spot the peak year of the Evergrande #housing bubble 🤔 A Chinese developer is offering discounts for apartments over Chinese New Year https://t.co/aXppvCVPP2 A Chinese developer is offering discounts for apartments over Chinese New Year https://t.co/aXppvCVPP2" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1212975807154413569) 2020-01-03T05:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #SPX #Leverage edition How much of these #buybacks at record #valuations were paid for with borrowed money When EPS goes negative stocks will collapse not just due to the losses & valuation contraction but also due to new share issuance & credit downgrades. Past [--] years $SPX companies spent $114 on buybacks for every $100 in capex). Prior [--] years were $60 per $100 of capex. Past [--] years $SPX companies spent $114 on buybacks for every $100 in capex). Prior [--] years were $60 per $100 of capex" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1213909155917881344) 2020-01-05T19:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition #FX #Peso $MXN $USDMXN https://x.com/EffMktHype/status/1238033566220476416s=19 What a fucking headfake Feb was for USDMXN https://t.co/DpUgzq9t0h https://x.com/EffMktHype/status/1238033566220476416s=19 What a fucking headfake Feb was for USDMXN https://t.co/DpUgzq9t0h" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1238035261851746305) 2020-03-12T09:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition Indonesia #Rupiah $IDR -1.0% vs $USD Philippine #Peso $PHP -0.7% vs $USD Thai #Bhat $THB -0.7% vs $USD #FX #Currency https://x.com/markets/status/1238033645446758405s=19 Stocks trip 10% circuit breakers as emerging Asia rout snowballs https://t.co/UavVbz3cKR https://t.co/I9rqzBcwV8 https://x.com/markets/status/1238033645446758405s=19 Stocks trip 10% circuit breakers as emerging Asia rout snowballs https://t.co/UavVbz3cKR https://t.co/I9rqzBcwV8" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1238038402722717701) 2020-03-12T09:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #CentralBanks edition The Swiss National Bank (ticker: #SWZNF) is way ahead of the #Fed on this one. And also a major beneficiary of #Fed largesse. up 13.2% today after being down 37% at last month's market low with their portfolio of #FAAMG #stocks. next up a $FED etf next up a $FED etf" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1250567340753686529) 2020-04-15T23:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition Now we find out which #sovereign #bonds will be the winners in the worldwide competition for government funding. Don't bet against the US #Dollar $DXY 📈 And so the US has entered the 'Magic Money Tree' realm. I am actually glad because now everyone will learn how flawed the theory is. Expect crowding-out in the fin markets stagflation (or "deprflation") and demands of "free money for all". #MMT https://t.co/Qyyh2etV8B And so the US has entered the 'Magic Money Tree' realm. I am actually glad because now everyone will learn how flawed the" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1261542783132684288) 2020-05-16T06:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition The only difference among these countries is: did the fall start during the 2014-16 US #Dollar breakout or the 2018-present #USD breakout The past decade has been difficult for EM. I've flagged how Argentina & Brazil per capita GDP has fallen which some call a "lost decade." The reality is that many other EMs also struggle. South Africa is down Russia close to flat & Turkey a success story stagnant since [----]. https://t.co/IyIKblSxGJ The past decade has been difficult for EM. I've flagged how Argentina & Brazil per capita GDP has" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1264745754884636673) 2020-05-25T02:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . US #Manufacturing edition #deflation ahead as these get liquidated. 📉 New record high in Inventory/Sales Ratio in April. Next up NY Fed to begin buying manufactured inventories. https://t.co/C1kmNJKtsj New record high in Inventory/Sales Ratio in April. Next up NY Fed to begin buying manufactured inventories. https://t.co/C1kmNJKtsj" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1266139982353162241) 2020-05-28T22:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition Pushing on a string. Via @SoberLook https://t.co/TSqwO9Rm06 Pushing on a string. Via @SoberLook https://t.co/TSqwO9Rm06" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1267654093742342144) 2020-06-02T03:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition Remember the #GreatRecession Good Times 👇 For the first time in its history (going all the way back to 1957) the core CPI (SA) declined for the third month in a row in May. Never happened before not even during the worst of the Great "Recession." And this thing is just getting started. https://t.co/j6S2SV6Jo2 https://t.co/qZzzIlTmlx For the first time in its history (going all the way back to 1957) the core CPI (SA) declined for the third month in a row in May. Never happened before not even during the worst of the Great "Recession." And this thing is" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1271091708013367296) 2020-06-11T14:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . US #Housing #Bubble [---] edition The #Fed is still pushing on a string. #RealEstate #Property #RMBS #REITs According to https://t.co/lLIQw7Sq0U listings were down by 30% in early May over the prior year. They are still down a hefty 21% and are unlikely to shrink much further. https://t.co/0j9jpuDhU0 According to https://t.co/lLIQw7Sq0U listings were down by 30% in early May over the prior year. They are still down a hefty 21% and are unlikely to shrink much further. https://t.co/0j9jpuDhU0" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1273316298831785985) 2020-06-17T18:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition The sharpest QoQ decline in the nonfarm business price deflator since 1949Q2 and the first YoY falloff since 1950Q1 and everyone is going ape over inflation https://t.co/lR5lqjSCu8 The sharpest QoQ decline in the nonfarm business price deflator since 1949Q2 and the first YoY falloff since 1950Q1 and everyone is going ape over inflation https://t.co/lR5lqjSCu8" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1294358720118321152) 2020-08-14T19:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . China $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition Chinese #M2 #money supply growth slows even as #TSF #credit growth accelerates. 📉 China Injects $500 Billion In New Monthly Credit As Surge In US Real Yields Looms https://t.co/iS3iekYp07 China Injects $500 Billion In New Monthly Credit As Surge In US Real Yields Looms https://t.co/iS3iekYp07" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1305311370208899073) 2020-09-14T01:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition US household income expectations are rolling over. https://t.co/AaoHTR5h2N US household income expectations are rolling over. https://t.co/AaoHTR5h2N" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1307990391262765057) 2020-09-21T10:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition The US #dollar #destruction of #GFC2 is just getting started. 📉 The cash on the sidelines is being spent. https://t.co/bC800gmIkn The cash on the sidelines is being spent. https://t.co/bC800gmIkn" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1309989132546965504) 2020-09-26T22:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #Eurozone #Deflation edition #ECB harmony breaking down as they keep pushing on a string. 📉 https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/09/29/why-arent-bond-yields-flying-higher-globally-exhibit-a-germany-europe/ https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/09/29/why-arent-bond-yields-flying-higher-globally-exhibit-a-germany-europe/" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1311595214331498496) 2020-10-01T09:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition $TLT 📈" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1312088034548969472) 2020-10-02T17:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition Bingo And the really #Deflationary aspect is that millions of Americans are now exhausting their six months of state #UnemploymentBenefits with no new #jobs in sight as labor force participation continues to contract to 1980s levels. The deflation associated with [----] million Americans collecting unemployment benefits is undeniable especially as job losses rise on the income ladder. Input costs are rising at the same time suggesting nasty stagflation will be the encore as fiscal spending goes off the rails. The deflation associated with [----] million" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1312124066686357504) 2020-10-02T20:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition The weakening economic recovery shows that deflation is a bigger concern than inflation says economist @agaryshilling (via @bopinion) https://t.co/jEqddCdQmD The weakening economic recovery shows that deflation is a bigger concern than inflation says economist @agaryshilling (via @bopinion) https://t.co/jEqddCdQmD" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1316174010728673280) 2020-10-14T00:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 Australia #Housing #Bubble edition" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1316603345725911040) 2020-10-15T04:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Banks edition The #Fed must be tired of pushing on a string. #MMT #CBDC 👇 Everyone should read this Payments and the Pandemic Speech by Loretta J. Mester President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland https://t.co/0WkTmWjcCP Everyone should read this Payments and the Pandemic Speech by Loretta J. Mester President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland https://t.co/0WkTmWjcCP" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1317580269428248576) 2020-10-17T21:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition #RealEstate #Housing #REIT #Property Im in Awe of How Fast Rents Plunge in San Francisco New York Boston Los Angeles Other Expensive Cities. Rents Decline Even in Houston & Dallas. National Average Turns Negative. https://t.co/BZ6EfkEz6p https://t.co/R6PvbxVPj5 Im in Awe of How Fast Rents Plunge in San Francisco New York Boston Los Angeles Other Expensive Cities. Rents Decline Even in Houston & Dallas. National Average Turns Negative. https://t.co/BZ6EfkEz6p https://t.co/R6PvbxVPj5" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1322229345847398401) 2020-10-30T17:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #deflation edition *Many analysts believe inflation will surge like the 1970s - but IMO disinflation is still likely For EX: global demands constrained via heavy debt burdens theres significant over-capacity (gluts) via zombie firms greater tech has diminished marginal pricing/wage powers https://t.co/RQDVgFsNW7 *Many analysts believe inflation will surge like the 1970s - but IMO disinflation is still likely For EX: global demands constrained via heavy debt burdens theres significant over-capacity (gluts) via zombie firms greater tech has diminished marginal pricing/wage" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1330357140175798277) 2020-11-22T03:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #StockMarket #Bubble edition "You've created a bubble. Perhaps the tools at the #Fed are too blunt to recognize this." 🤣 https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc201201/ https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc201201/" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1334832783009533954) 2020-12-04T12:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #deflation edition #inequality is #deflationary 📉 This story about desperate Americans shoplifting food and diapers is heartbreaking. https://t.co/EsgtUPg5lm https://t.co/9lJVzl09FZ This story about desperate Americans shoplifting food and diapers is heartbreaking. https://t.co/EsgtUPg5lm https://t.co/9lJVzl09FZ" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1337194915122405377) 2020-12-11T00:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #deflation edition With the CPI flat at 1.2% YoY the economy is not experiencing "persistent high inflation." Since Aug [----] the YoY% of the CPI has been trending lower not higher indicating persistent deflation. 2/ With the CPI flat at 1.2% YoY the economy is not experiencing "persistent high inflation." Since Aug [----] the YoY% of the CPI has been trending lower not higher indicating persistent deflation. 2/" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1338219515398639616) 2020-12-13T20:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #deflation edition Jay Powell went on [--] Minutes in May and lied through his teeth about digital money printing. For about two weeks a few people believed him (outside the fin'l media). That's all gone now. Because there was no money printing. It really is that simple. https://t.co/3w4UjaWzLx https://t.co/aPq2tZHiKd Jay Powell went on [--] Minutes in May and lied through his teeth about digital money printing. For about two weeks a few people believed him (outside the fin'l media). That's all gone now. Because there was no money printing. It really is that simple." [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1338637046391263236) 2020-12-15T00:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition If inflation even a tiny bit realistic the swap market would be going nuts about it. Trillions in "fixed" income as well as more in balance sheet factors on the line. Spreads would be decompressing. Nope. Spreads compressing right in the middle curve. https://t.co/5PJwpm1Wpr https://t.co/2BsNCGsIwq If inflation even a tiny bit realistic the swap market would be going nuts about it. Trillions in "fixed" income as well as more in balance sheet factors on the line. Spreads would be decompressing. Nope. Spreads compressing right in the middle curve." [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1339382573370200065) 2020-12-17T01:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition Forget #NAIRU. we may be headed below #NADRU: the Non-Accelerating Deflation Rate of #Unemployment. 📉 The only thing mildly inflationary is WTI and investors there are betting solely on the vaccine(s) erasing all of this before doing even more permanent damage than already has been done. No wonder oil prices haven't really gone up all that much. https://t.co/rrl4b2EAX2 https://t.co/xh5WVtfPCD The only thing mildly inflationary is WTI and investors there are betting solely on the vaccine(s) erasing all of this before doing even more permanent damage" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1341190426674352128) 2020-12-22T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Fed Pushing on a String edition The #PCE #deflator the #Inflation measure preferred by the #Fed sank to 1.13% in Nov from 1.19% in Oct and 1.35% in Sept. despite trillions of dollars of #QE in [----]. https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/12/23/evidence-only-for-hysteria/ https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/12/23/evidence-only-for-hysteria/" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1341859871428231168) 2020-12-23T21:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition The #deflationary pairs trade: $TLT 📈 #Gold 📉 THREAD 👇" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1344535167784816642) 2020-12-31T06:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@AnalystDC Is the South Korean Won the canary in the #Eurodollar coal mine $KRW $USDKRW" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1355702653301350409) 2021-01-31T02:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #UST #Bonds edition Long-end Treasury Bonds #volatility is a #Fed nightmare. 👇 This is NOT picture Powell wants to carry into the weekend. MOVE closed at north of [--] today. Will it close next week at double its September 29th low point of [--] Lets just say Powell praying the MOVE will cease & desist its move upwards @Quillintel @SoberLook https://t.co/dtYOKJBZmB This is NOT picture Powell wants to carry into the weekend. MOVE closed at north of [--] today. Will it close next week at double its September 29th low point of [--] Lets just say Powell praying the MOVE will cease &" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1362904167606484994) 2021-02-19T23:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition #RetailSales 📉 BofA was the only bank to correctly call the massive January retail sales surge. It now expects a collapse in Feb: -3.0% vs -0.2% consensus. BofA was the only bank to correctly call the massive January retail sales surge. It now expects a collapse in Feb: -3.0% vs -0.2% consensus" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1370204089213067267) 2021-03-12T02:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #UST #Bonds edition The Big #Banks have been buying #Treasury #Bonds as if they're going out of style. 👇 #Zoltan https://t.co/AzePlMFkJ3 #Zoltan https://t.co/AzePlMFkJ3" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1374814107413536771) 2021-03-24T20:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #UST #Bonds edition Why the #Fed #Dollar Swap Lines with other #CentralBanks during #USD shortages actually reinforce the dominance of the $USD.👇 Love conquers all. Love conquers all" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1377370984936706048) 2021-03-31T21:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #MarginCall edition As the #Fed ran the #liquidity taps wide open #HedgeFunds took full advantage to lever up. We know how this movie ends but this sequel may be the biggest yet 👇 The leverage being extended from all corners of the world to US hedge funds over the past [--] months is INSANE. Chart courtesy of @AlderLaneeggs. https://t.co/O6FHigiqvI The leverage being extended from all corners of the world to US hedge funds over the past [--] months is INSANE. Chart courtesy of @AlderLaneeggs. https://t.co/O6FHigiqvI" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1377428840205611008) 2021-04-01T01:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing #Bubble [---] edition #RealEstate #property #REIT Living the American Dream. Limited housing supply low rates a global reach for yield and what we're calling the institutionalization of real-estate investors has set the stage for another speculative investor-driven home price bubble. https://t.co/y0SX9StxIW Living the American Dream. Limited housing supply low rates a global reach for yield and what we're calling the institutionalization of real-estate investors has set the stage for another speculative investor-driven home price bubble. https://t.co/y0SX9StxIW" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1403805420980903936) 2021-06-12T20:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Crypto #Bubble edition #Binance #Tether #Bitcoin #USDT #StableCoin #cryptocurrency" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1412268789131988992) 2021-07-06T04:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing #Bubble [---] edition What happens when Forbearance ends @paranoidbull @DiMartinoBooth "14.7% of the [---] million FHA mortgages outstanding nationwide were delinquent as of May up slightly from the previous month- 10.5% of these loans were seriously delinquent" https://t.co/MPLYdDjAkS What happens when Forbearance ends @paranoidbull @DiMartinoBooth "14.7% of the [---] million FHA mortgages outstanding nationwide were delinquent as of May up slightly from the previous month- 10.5% of these loans were seriously delinquent" https://t.co/MPLYdDjAkS" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1412514275923353602) 2021-07-06T20:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing #Bubble [---] edition #RealEstate #REIT #Property Full story. No paywall. https://t.co/Tjt9ueKYEs Full story. No paywall. https://t.co/Tjt9ueKYEs" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1415423248108384258) 2021-07-14T21:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #Housing #Bubble edition #RealEstate #mortgages Canada: We're getting concerned about 16% of new mortgages being written at more than 4.5x income. Australia: Hold my beer. 19.1% of new mortgages being written with a debt to income ratio higher than 6x. #ResponsibleLending https://t.co/8sZCJC9YIA Canada: We're getting concerned about 16% of new mortgages being written at more than 4.5x income. Australia: Hold my beer. 19.1% of new mortgages being written with a debt to income ratio higher than 6x. #ResponsibleLending https://t.co/8sZCJC9YIA" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1418102230326992900) 2021-07-22T06:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #Housing #Bubble edition At least most of the #Millenials and #GenZ will be spared having to make #mortgage payments since they won't be able to afford a home in the first place. Housing Affordability by Generation (average % of gross income servicing mortgage debt over life of loan) - Gen X buying in [----] (25.5%) - Boomer buying in [----] (19.5%) - Silent Gen buying in [----] (11.2%) https://t.co/g6Wkowy1wU Housing Affordability by Generation (average % of gross income servicing mortgage debt over life of loan) - Gen X buying in [----] (25.5%) - Boomer buying in [----] (19.5%) -" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1418360765585584128) 2021-07-23T00:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing #Bubble [---] edition via @AvidCommentator Banks are now bundling and selling default risk on mortgage loans to yield-hungry investors https://t.co/U83UQHUSHw via @WSJ Banks are now bundling and selling default risk on mortgage loans to yield-hungry investors https://t.co/U83UQHUSHw via @WSJ" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1420398361362923520) 2021-07-28T14:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #StockMarket #Bubble edition "Perennial Energy". the most fitting name since "Long Term Capital Management" (LTCM) New on the Odd Lots blog - the story of one stock's very brief adventure in benchmark indices and one of my favorite charts of the year. https://t.co/JrOfSU3JdX https://t.co/N6gQxNP4Du New on the Odd Lots blog - the story of one stock's very brief adventure in benchmark indices and one of my favorite charts of the year. https://t.co/JrOfSU3JdX https://t.co/N6gQxNP4Du" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1425701988637970432) 2021-08-12T06:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 China #GDP edition And this is before #Evergrande defaults" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1438781801850277890) 2021-09-17T08:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Debt #Bubble edition In Legislative Hail Mary Democrats Link Debt Ceiling To Spending Bill https://t.co/fF6hRivGK2 In Legislative Hail Mary Democrats Link Debt Ceiling To Spending Bill https://t.co/fF6hRivGK2" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1440069955324506113) 2021-09-20T21:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition #FX #forex $VEF $USDVEF Currency chop #Venezuela launches a new digital currency with six fewer zeroes. @StePozzebonhas all the details on the country's 'digital bolivar' and their attempt to combat hyperinflation. Plus the latest on El Salvador's adoption of #bitcoin. https://t.co/qQh56irXWT Currency chop #Venezuela launches a new digital currency with six fewer zeroes. @StePozzebonhas all the details on the country's 'digital bolivar' and their attempt to combat hyperinflation. Plus the latest on El Salvador's adoption of" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1443980272567930880) 2021-10-01T16:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Fed Pushing on a String edition So much for the "Fed Put". 📉 Elizabeth Warren Calls For SEC To Investigate Federal Reserve Officials Trading Activities - @WSJ https://t.co/4fglmrRccx Elizabeth Warren Calls For SEC To Investigate Federal Reserve Officials Trading Activities - @WSJ https://t.co/4fglmrRccx" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1445075295258640386) 2021-10-04T17:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #StockMarket #Bubble edition #Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #ETH #cryptocurrency #cryptocurrencies Congressman Emmer's key argument in FT against regulation of crypto coins by the SEC is that regulation would cause the value of the coins to plummet. Keep bubbles and Ponzi schemes going to protect the retail investors I don't know where to begin. https://t.co/jCMibpUBcm Congressman Emmer's key argument in FT against regulation of crypto coins by the SEC is that regulation would cause the value of the coins to plummet. Keep bubbles and Ponzi schemes going to protect the retail investors I" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1446928671772610561) 2021-10-09T20:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Debt #Bubble edition What investors view as wealth is actually just the current price of their future wealth. read on for charts discussion and all the 'whatabouts' https://t.co/zYm1S60Jfk What investors view as wealth is actually just the current price of their future wealth. read on for charts discussion and all the 'whatabouts' https://t.co/zYm1S60Jfk" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1450231306340630533) 2021-10-18T22:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #StockMarket #Bubble edition Record high leverage and record low cash. what could go wrong 🤔" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1462854777138671619) 2021-11-22T18:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Debt #Bubble edition Where Is The Debt In Q1 [----] total public and private debt was 345% of US GDP. Today total public and private debt is 372% of US GDP. Debt levels are similar but the composition has radically changed. A breakdown of US Debt to GDP 👇 1/ https://t.co/nAvZILXL6w Where Is The Debt In Q1 [----] total public and private debt was 345% of US GDP. Today total public and private debt is 372% of US GDP. Debt levels are similar but the composition has radically changed. A breakdown of US Debt to GDP 👇 1/ https://t.co/nAvZILXL6w" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1471902677604859908) 2021-12-17T17:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Global #Corporate #Debt #Bubble edition $EMHY $HYG $JNK 📉 Emerging markets HY vs US HY New lows are coming https://t.co/GYL74jhpxX Emerging markets HY vs US HY New lows are coming https://t.co/GYL74jhpxX" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1491946391014236162) 2022-02-11T01:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GTC2 #Eurozone #Consumer edition Besides confidence real disposed income is also going down as negotiated nominal wages are quite moderate and below inflation (see chart). No wage-price spiral is in sight despite the high inflation. The external shocks are creating their own recessionary drive. 2/ https://t.co/StrCqZt1J1 Besides confidence real disposed income is also going down as negotiated nominal wages are quite moderate and below inflation (see chart). No wage-price spiral is in sight despite the high inflation. The external shocks are creating their own recessionary drive." [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1508562485971873797) 2022-03-28T21:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #CentralBanks Pushing on a String edition Can a central bank's stock price go down 🤔 $SNBN" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1519570158230007808) 2022-04-28T06:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition US #Dollar is not just as good as #gold. right now it's better. $DXY 📈 It's tiring fielding calls about "what's wrong with gold Answer: nothing. It's about a 20-year high U.S. dollar. Gold has actually done better than most other currencies: YTD it is +10% versus the euro +11% versus the pound and +15% versus the yen. #RosenbergResearch It's tiring fielding calls about "what's wrong with gold Answer: nothing. It's about a 20-year high U.S. dollar. Gold has actually done better than most other currencies: YTD it is +10% versus the euro" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1524045848828530688) 2022-05-10T15:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 China #Housing #Bubble edition Chinese #Currency doesn't like it either #FX #forex $CNH $USDCNH The [--] bps Cut in LPR does not seem enough CSI [---] Real estate index -1% The [--] bps Cut in LPR does not seem enough CSI [---] Real estate index -1%" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1527479118291271681) 2022-05-20T02:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition $TLT 📈 FED'S BULLARD: WE CAN BE LOWERING RATES IN [----] OR [----] IF WE GET INFLATION UNDER CONTROL. FED'S BULLARD: WE CAN BE LOWERING RATES IN [----] OR [----] IF WE GET INFLATION UNDER CONTROL" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1527704742058545152) 2022-05-20T17:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #PrivateEquity edition The #ARKK model of selling liquid assets to double down on illiquid assets 🤦♀👇 This will end in tears. Private assets will be marked down as many rely on public markets for ultimate liquidity. https://t.co/Rzxw8vPDGo This will end in tears. Private assets will be marked down as many rely on public markets for ultimate liquidity. https://t.co/Rzxw8vPDGo" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1529978669157863424) 2022-05-27T00:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Crypto #Bubble edition $MSTR definitely not MacroStrategy #BitcoinCrash #Cryptocrash 📉 @MktsInsider That is what I call a MICROSTRATEGY @MktsInsider That is what I call a MICROSTRATEGY" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1537251733570629632) 2022-06-16T01:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #Repo #Collateral Crunch edition Rising worldwide $USD funding stress What meltdown Not only is 4w bill under 1% 3m bill is now less than both IOER AND RRP. Even though 100-bps-at-a-time Powell Hikeman is going to push rates up a lot he says in the next three months 3m bill isn't even above *current* "floor." https://t.co/eCYCTfkx67 https://t.co/evXHoqspjZ What meltdown Not only is 4w bill under 1% 3m bill is now less than both IOER AND RRP. Even though 100-bps-at-a-time Powell Hikeman is going to push rates up a lot he says in the next three months 3m bill isn't even above" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1537500661541023744) 2022-06-16T18:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . US #Treasury #Bonds edition US Treasuries aren't regular investments. They may be to you and me but mostly they are balance sheet tools for use as currency by the biggest players in the monetary/financial world. That means there are times when returns on UST don't matter. https://t.co/Jjw7agraZ0 US Treasuries aren't regular investments. They may be to you and me but mostly they are balance sheet tools for use as currency by the biggest players in the monetary/financial world. That means there are times when returns on UST don't matter. https://t.co/Jjw7agraZ0" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1545857330486468609) 2022-07-09T19:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 South Korea edition More #stimulus for rising #inflation 🤔 So much for the #MMT textbook Seoul mulls easing income tax for middle to working class amid strong inflation https://t.co/1mDchEvlBL #pulse Seoul mulls easing income tax for middle to working class amid strong inflation https://t.co/1mDchEvlBL #pulse" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1546652748308877312) 2022-07-12T00:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition MOVE #volatility precedes the real move. down in long-dated Treasury #yields I can't recall a day the MOVE didn't move. But there you have it. UNCH on the day at very high level -- highest since summer [----] and north of pandemic highs. Credit set-up nasty. https://t.co/gtnSzmAQqj I can't recall a day the MOVE didn't move. But there you have it. UNCH on the day at very high level -- highest since summer [----] and north of pandemic highs. Credit set-up nasty. https://t.co/gtnSzmAQqj" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1547316014982893568) 2022-07-13T20:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition Bonds (GOVT TLT SCHO VCIT buying) Bonds (GOVT TLT SCHO VCIT buying)" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1547924607574745089) 2022-07-15T12:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition via @SantiagoAuFund Blockbuster Demand For 20Y Auction: Record High Indirects As Foreign Buyers Scramble For Duration Ahead Of Recession https://t.co/brRtOWhNbo Blockbuster Demand For 20Y Auction: Record High Indirects As Foreign Buyers Scramble For Duration Ahead Of Recession https://t.co/brRtOWhNbo" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1549833974599393283) 2022-07-20T19:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition #YieldCurve 📉 'An inversion in the yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession for the past half century so it's seen as a harbinger of economic doom. And it's happening now.' https://t.co/0TF7pHitEk 'An inversion in the yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession for the past half century so it's seen as a harbinger of economic doom. And it's happening now.' https://t.co/0TF7pHitEk" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1550143662079692800) 2022-07-21T15:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition $TLT $EDV $ZROZ 📈 Whoa US Treasuries are currently printing the lowest EVER term premia on our estimates https://t.co/zqrpcnFYCI Whoa US Treasuries are currently printing the lowest EVER term premia on our estimates https://t.co/zqrpcnFYCI" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1555311754090926080) 2022-08-04T21:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition #fx #forex $LKR $USDLKR Sri Lanka's imports fell more than 20% in Q2 worse than Argentina's and Turkey's currency crises in [----]. The drop in real income will also be brutal. Only solution is an IMF program as soon as possible. No one else will lend into this kind of chaotic situation. https://t.co/4ch58H9UMB Sri Lanka's imports fell more than 20% in Q2 worse than Argentina's and Turkey's currency crises in [----]. The drop in real income will also be brutal. Only solution is an IMF program as soon as possible. No one else will lend" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1555532450029195264) 2022-08-05T12:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt #Bubble edition $LQD $LQDH $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 US corporate debt issuance is falling down 34% vs [----] YTD. Meanwhile corporate debt pricing is near lows not seen since the COVID crash. This translates to higher interest rates paid thus the lack of interest in new issuance here. https://t.co/fnWbbkKPsI US corporate debt issuance is falling down 34% vs [----] YTD. Meanwhile corporate debt pricing is near lows not seen since the COVID crash. This translates to higher interest rates paid thus the lack of interest in new issuance here. https://t.co/fnWbbkKPsI" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1556539023711019008) 2022-08-08T07:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition #YieldCurve 📉 net money flow -1B . whoever goes inside will remain trapped with no liquidity. that's my view USD & CHF safe havens - yield curve is flattening again net money flow -1B . whoever goes inside will remain trapped with no liquidity. that's my view USD & CHF safe havens - yield curve is flattening again" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1558164463777288192) 2022-08-12T18:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition $TLT $EDV $ZROZ 📈 https://t.co/XUbyDrVAi0 https://t.co/XUbyDrVAi0" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1558265995898130432) 2022-08-13T01:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition US #Treasury #Bonds #YieldCurve 📉 03m/10YR spread 20bp 03m/10YR spread 20bp" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1564046375767003136) 2022-08-29T00:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Fed Pushing on a String edition US #Treasury #Bonds #YieldCurve 📉 2-yr US Treasury at [-----] highest yield since [----] 2-yr US Treasury at [-----] highest yield since 2007" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1564048538756980737) 2022-08-29T00:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition #YieldCurve 📉 All of the 3-month/10-year purists are about to find religion. All of the 3-month/10-year purists are about to find religion" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1569771203451318272) 2022-09-13T19:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition "While Treasury securities are an important liquidity risk management tool they can be the first securities sold in a stress period given their higher liquidity relative to other bonds possibly amplifying stresses in markets." https://t.co/RbVOvd6iPL "While Treasury securities are an important liquidity risk management tool they can be the first securities sold in a stress period given their higher liquidity relative to other bonds possibly amplifying stresses in markets." https://t.co/RbVOvd6iPL" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1573014966331797504) 2022-09-22T18:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt #Bubble [---] edition $LQD $LQDH 📉 LQD Investment Grade Bonds https://t.co/Kuc6bDm2sX LQD Investment Grade Bonds https://t.co/Kuc6bDm2sX" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1574503376095571968) 2022-09-26T20:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 https://twitter.com/cafetero7878/status/1574516528380530688t=MDh3VImGkLSHPU72sToRug&s=19 https://twitter.com/cafetero7878/status/1574516528380530688t=MDh3VImGkLSHPU72sToRug&s=19" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1574516837328429056) 2022-09-26T21:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#fx #forex #RMB #Yuan $CNH $USDCNH https://x.com/SofiaHCBBG/status/1574930352543395840t=YAs8rstpriT7DlV62jIc2g&s=19 https://x.com/SofiaHCBBG/status/1574930352543395840t=YAs8rstpriT7DlV62jIc2g&s=19" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1574934159465730048) 2022-09-28T01:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#fx #forex $USDCNH $USDJPY $USDKRW $USDMYR $USDTWD $USDHKD $USDSGD 🥶 https://x.com/PauloMacro/status/1574936369075433472t=kVTG74sls6iKKO2eHHu2iw&s=19 Paging @UrbanKaoboy your Asian Contagion is available for pickup in the Far East https://t.co/HaM4Wnj9Pr https://x.com/PauloMacro/status/1574936369075433472t=kVTG74sls6iKKO2eHHu2iw&s=19 Paging @UrbanKaoboy your Asian Contagion is available for pickup in the Far East https://t.co/HaM4Wnj9Pr" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1574937799777583104) 2022-09-28T01:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 Credit spreads are moving up again. After sparking two global liquidations waves (Fed-Mar June-July) they only compressed a tiny bit before accelerating upward again in Aug and Sept. This is more about liquidity (collateral) than credit risk primary source of scarcity. https://t.co/blBqVpNMy8 Credit spreads are moving up again. After sparking two global liquidations waves (Fed-Mar June-July) they only compressed a tiny bit before accelerating upward again in Aug and Sept. This is more about liquidity (collateral) than" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1574951069343326208) 2022-09-28T02:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "$LQD $LQDH 📉👀 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1574843576319676427t=AQptMYYCwtoXWfyEpFyuOA&s=19 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1574843576319676427t=AQptMYYCwtoXWfyEpFyuOA&s=19" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1574961526674366464) 2022-09-28T03:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt #Bubble edition $LQD $LQDH 📉" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1575561748060336129) 2022-09-29T19:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Bonds edition $LQD $LQDH 📉 US investment-grade bond funds suffered their third-largest cash exit on record with investors yanking $10.3 billion out of the funds in the week ended Sept. 28; Refinitiv Lipper. It marks the sixth straight week of withdrawals via @TheTerminal https://t.co/6YVI3x2kQ5 US investment-grade bond funds suffered their third-largest cash exit on record with investors yanking $10.3 billion out of the funds in the week ended Sept. 28; Refinitiv Lipper. It marks the sixth straight week of withdrawals via @TheTerminal https://t.co/6YVI3x2kQ5" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1575632148777750528) 2022-09-29T23:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt #Bubble edition $LQD $LQDH $HYG $BKLN $JNK 📉 1) A measure of credit stress jumped to borderline critical zone this week. Credit market dysfunction starts beyond this point Incredibly more investors now expect wider spreads in the near term than in middle of the Global Financial $SPY $QQQ $GLD $TLT #Commodities https://t.co/FNjAi24jNI 1) A measure of credit stress jumped to borderline critical zone this week. Credit market dysfunction starts beyond this point Incredibly more investors now expect wider spreads in the near term than in middle of the Global" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1576293898434973697) 2022-10-01T19:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #Manufacturing edition #KOSPI $KOSPI $EWY 📉 #TAIEX $TPE $EWT 📉 Global manufacturing bellwethers Korea and Taiwan stockmarkets breaking further lower https://t.co/CxXayGGmM3 Global manufacturing bellwethers Korea and Taiwan stockmarkets breaking further lower https://t.co/CxXayGGmM3" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1576831060649734144) 2022-10-03T07:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition Now down to 3bps in the last few minutes #YieldCurve 📉 👀 The 10yr - 3m curve is at 5bps. Goodnight. The 10yr - 3m curve is at 5bps. Goodnight" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1582143708538863618) 2022-10-17T22:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition Best news ever for the beleaguered US Treasury #Bonds market House Republicans Plan to Hold the Debt Limit Hostage Against Joe Biden https://t.co/xRWJzqJA8P House Republicans Plan to Hold the Debt Limit Hostage Against Joe Biden https://t.co/xRWJzqJA8P" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1585946371340718080) 2022-10-28T10:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition #YieldCurve 📉 #TreasuriesToday: Yields mixed curve flatter. $177b coupon settlement ($8.3b net). 4Q financing estimate at 3pm for Wednesday's refunding announcement (Nov-Jan coupon auction size projections). Month-end index rebalancing at 4pm to extend duration by estimated 0.06yr. #TreasuriesToday: Yields mixed curve flatter. $177b coupon settlement ($8.3b net). 4Q financing estimate at 3pm for Wednesday's refunding announcement (Nov-Jan coupon auction size projections). Month-end index rebalancing at 4pm to extend duration by estimated 0.06yr" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1587047877175451648) 2022-10-31T11:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing Bubble [---] edition #RealEstate #OpenDoor $OPEN 📉 Opendoor will be flirting with penny-stock status if it falls any further. $OPEN -12% today to $1.78 -88% on the year and 95% from Feb '21 high of $35.88. The Fed's rate increases have hammered the online home-flippers' business model. @WSJmarkets https://t.co/L0OJJs9clo Opendoor will be flirting with penny-stock status if it falls any further. $OPEN -12% today to $1.78 -88% on the year and 95% from Feb '21 high of $35.88. The Fed's rate increases have hammered the online home-flippers' business model." [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1589713973607550976) 2022-11-07T20:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Crypto Bubble edition #FTX #FTXCRASH #FTXbankruptcy #cryptocurrencies #cryptocrash 📉" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1591149327921348608) 2022-11-11T19:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 UK #Housing Bubble edition Exodus of first-time buyers puts brakes on UK housing market https://t.co/znY4SAwzUW Exodus of first-time buyers puts brakes on UK housing market https://t.co/znY4SAwzUW" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1592565072211365888) 2022-11-15T17:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Crypto Bubble edition #DeFi #Ethereum #ETH #ETHUSD #cryptocurrency #cryptocrash 📈 Question for Ethereum proponents What will you do if the FTX exploiter starts staking their $280m of ETH & the U.S. Govt attempts to force regulated financial institutions to censor and/or slash their stake You have the ability to do it it's just social consensus after all. Question for Ethereum proponents What will you do if the FTX exploiter starts staking their $280m of ETH & the U.S. Govt attempts to force regulated financial institutions to censor and/or slash their stake You have the ability" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1592720841250574336) 2022-11-16T03:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition How Liquid Has the Treasury Market Been in2022 https://t.co/WS2JD1MheM How Liquid Has the Treasury Market Been in2022 https://t.co/WS2JD1MheM" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1592985424737492992) 2022-11-16T20:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Crypto Bubble edition #Tether #USDT #StableCoin #FTX #SBF_FTX #AlamedaResearch #cryptocurrency #cryptocrash 📉 It has now been well established that Tethers largest so-called customer Sam Bankman-Fried is a fraud that stole billions of dollars. Its also known that he manipulated his own shitcoin markets. Its safe to assume he manipulated the bitcoin and Ethereum markets. It has now been well established that Tethers largest so-called customer Sam Bankman-Fried is a fraud that stole billions of dollars. Its also known that he manipulated his own shitcoin markets. Its safe to" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1593120569746427905) 2022-11-17T05:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 Meanwhile this eye opening epiphany just landed on the back page of the c-section of the WSJ. MacroMavens subscribers have been following this trend for months now. By the time it makes the front page junk spreads will be in quadruple digit territory. https://t.co/uHNpJkLWod Meanwhile this eye opening epiphany just landed on the back page of the c-section of the WSJ. MacroMavens subscribers have been following this trend for months now. By the time it makes the front page junk spreads will be in quadruple digit" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1596617476183580673) 2022-11-26T21:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #RealEstate Bubble edition #Blackstone $BX #PrivateEquity 📉 #commercialrealestate #CMBS 📉 Why Blackstones $69 Billion Property Fund Is Signaling Pain Ahead for Real Estate Industry @business #CMBS https://t.co/6NFxbfBcDQ Why Blackstones $69 Billion Property Fund Is Signaling Pain Ahead for Real Estate Industry @business #CMBS https://t.co/6NFxbfBcDQ" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1598745729446862848) 2022-12-02T18:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing Bubble [---] edition The similarities to [----] keep piling up #RealEstate $RH 📉 He said this last quarter too. $RH He said this last quarter too. $RH" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1601253107710582786) 2022-12-09T16:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Banks edition $XLF $KRE $BKX $BAC 📉" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1601711704597204992) 2022-12-10T22:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 $TLT $EDV $ZROZ 📈" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1603128068393955329) 2022-12-14T20:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Bonds Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 We still expect credit spreads to widen: https://t.co/U6nRoHPnSp We still expect credit spreads to widen: https://t.co/U6nRoHPnSp" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1603473796853161986) 2022-12-15T19:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition #Fed rate hikes balance sheet runoff and the US government debt ceiling are all seriously bad news for the global economy. 📉 Evidence that the US government behaves strategically and exploits its market power when issuing debt and that related distortions are sizable and give rise to a significant underprovision of global safe assets from Choi Kirpalani and Perez https://t.co/Z4rP0hvaFr https://t.co/36BeXwP5cJ Evidence that the US government behaves strategically and exploits its market power when issuing debt and that related distortions" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1605017299936677888) 2022-12-20T01:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 $HYG starting intermediate wave [--] of major wave [--] lower. Things are about to get ugly. Do not be long. https://t.co/BgESMwUz2T $HYG starting intermediate wave [--] of major wave [--] lower. Things are about to get ugly. Do not be long. https://t.co/BgESMwUz2T" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1607873299144650752) 2022-12-27T22:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$HYGH 📉 ☠https://x.com/sxerriii/status/1608230233886318592t=JKfVSSXwNSX1pG_ZHpOStw&s=19 https://x.com/sxerriii/status/1608230233886318592t=JKfVSSXwNSX1pG_ZHpOStw&s=19" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1608265127358525442) 2022-12-29T00:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US edition US Treasury #Bonds #yields 📉 "We're in an environment in which wage pressures are easing & the Fed can step off the ledge of large incremental fed-funds rate hikes even if policymakers maintain their hawkish rhetoric via @EYnews https://t.co/dIzmXivjfk via @vivienlouchen "We're in an environment in which wage pressures are easing & the Fed can step off the ledge of large incremental fed-funds rate hikes even if policymakers maintain their hawkish rhetoric via @EYnews https://t.co/dIzmXivjfk via @vivienlouchen" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1611422871699730432) 2023-01-06T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition So much for another currency peg to the US #Dollar #fx #forex $EGP $USDEGP 📉 👀 A recipe for massive unrest https://t.co/Cs4Ql491DM A recipe for massive unrest https://t.co/Cs4Ql491DM" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1612998599977336838) 2023-01-11T02:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition 3m/10yr #YieldCurve now [----] bps 👀 $TLT $EDV $ZROZ 📈 "Treasury Yields Sink as Swap Traders Trim Fed Bets: Markets Wrap" Like we said. "Treasury Yields Sink as Swap Traders Trim Fed Bets: Markets Wrap" Like we said" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1613616390744977411) 2023-01-12T19:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #StockMarket Bubble edition #volatility #VIX $VXV 📈" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1613686962715783173) 2023-01-12T23:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition Propounding that the (Egyptian) pound is getting pounded. #fx #forex $EGP $USDEGP The Egyptian currency is being . pounded into dust by devaluation https://t.co/q6IYDbgrxL The Egyptian currency is being . pounded into dust by devaluation https://t.co/q6IYDbgrxL" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1615080924764581889) 2023-01-16T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #PrivateEquity edition $KKR #private_equity #RealEstate 📉 KKR one of the largest real estate investment houses in the world just decided to put a limit to investors' withdrawals from one of their funds. After Blackstone another huge real estate player trying to stop the bleeding by forcing investors to stay in and swallow the pain. KKR one of the largest real estate investment houses in the world just decided to put a limit to investors' withdrawals from one of their funds. After Blackstone another huge real estate player trying to stop the bleeding by forcing investors" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1616125167390056449) 2023-01-19T17:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing Bubble [---] edition #RealEstate #RMBS #Mortgages 📉 Ouch. Worse since [----] https://t.co/CdKxnc397c Ouch. Worse since [----] https://t.co/CdKxnc397c" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1616624801979961345) 2023-01-21T02:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 Credit markets ignoring what banks are doing. https://t.co/NolSB4bz5d Credit markets ignoring what banks are doing. https://t.co/NolSB4bz5d" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1618294771029807104) 2023-01-25T17:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition $TLT $EDV $ZROZ #ShortSqueeze 📈 Historical data for US bond market returns tells us that the best time to buy bonds is on the penultimate hike: HSBCs Steven Major. Recent bond moves suggest the penultimate Fed rate hike is close. History suggests this is an important moment. Historical data for US bond market returns tells us that the best time to buy bonds is on the penultimate hike: HSBCs Steven Major. Recent bond moves suggest the penultimate Fed rate hike is close. History suggests this is an important moment" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1620020367812329472) 2023-01-30T11:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Bonds Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1620966024031125504) 2023-02-02T02:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition $TLT $EDV $ZROZ 📈 We often talk about what markets are going to do next month or this year This obsession about short-term market performance puts investors at great risk of missing the forest for the trees Let's talk about where do we stand in the big macro picture and what's the end game 2/ We often talk about what markets are going to do next month or this year This obsession about short-term market performance puts investors at great risk of missing the forest for the trees Let's talk about where do we stand in the big macro picture and" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1622106200652517376) 2023-02-05T05:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 Re the discussion with the every excellent and interesting @crossbordercap re credit. these are the kind of charts I worry about - the SLO survey leading the default rates (and credit spreads). https://t.co/daLNJcJngt Re the discussion with the every excellent and interesting @crossbordercap re credit. these are the kind of charts I worry about - the SLO survey leading the default rates (and credit spreads). https://t.co/daLNJcJngt" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1622503408631705600) 2023-02-06T07:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition Might be wise to lock in the unsustainably higher #yield for [--] or [--] years soon before the #Fed is forced to pivot yet again. $TLT $EDV $ZROZ 📈 Households are withdrawing deposits from banks to buy Treasuries at an increased pace and it makes sense. T-Bills pay around 4% while bank deposits dont. Banks might soon need to compete more for deposits or face tighter liquidity conditions. Something worth monitoring. Households are withdrawing deposits from banks to buy Treasuries at an increased pace and it makes sense. T-Bills pay around 4% while" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1622654744820088832) 2023-02-06T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition When a currency peg to the US #dollar breaks again and again and again. #fx #forex $EGP $USDEGP 🥶 ⚠EGYPT'S DOLLAR-DENOMINATED GOVERNMENT BONDS FALL AS MUCH AS [---] CENTS AFTER MOODY'S DOWNGRADE OF CREDIT RATING - https://t.co/wXVagA44VK ⚠EGYPT'S DOLLAR-DENOMINATED GOVERNMENT BONDS FALL AS MUCH AS [---] CENTS AFTER MOODY'S DOWNGRADE OF CREDIT RATING - https://t.co/wXVagA44VK" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1623241929843679232) 2023-02-08T08:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #Tech Bubble [---] edition #ElectricVehicles #Rivian $RIVN $F 📉 🚘 $F sells majority of $RIVN stake https://t.co/vCvOpXosA4 🚘 $F sells majority of $RIVN stake https://t.co/vCvOpXosA4" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1623861394897797120) 2023-02-10T01:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #StockMarket Bubble Hong Kong edition $HSI $HSTECH $HSCEI 📉 🥶 HSI -2% HSI TECH -4.68%. HSCEI -2.61%. Usually these magnitude of drop don't happen in a bull trend. That is all HSI -2% HSI TECH -4.68%. HSCEI -2.61%. Usually these magnitude of drop don't happen in a bull trend. That is all" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1623952382727192576) 2023-02-10T07:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #Tech Bubble [---] edition #semiconductors $SMH $XSD 📉 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1624592713437028352) 2023-02-12T02:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1625255030008971264) 2023-02-13T22:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 $JNK rolled over today. https://t.co/nLNWXMeBzd $JNK rolled over today. https://t.co/nLNWXMeBzd" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1625347890578358272) 2023-02-14T04:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition The #YieldCurve apocalypse forecast gets worse and worse. 📉 🥶" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1625596832276684801) 2023-02-14T20:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition #SPX #SPX500 $SPY #ES_F 📉 $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 'The message from a suddenly weak HY Bond A-D Line is that financial market liquidity has suddenly left the building and that this is going to come around and bite even the big cap stocks.' https://t.co/7eRE6vyUaT by @McClellanOsc https://t.co/1o7W4NL68I 'The message from a suddenly weak HY Bond A-D Line is that financial market liquidity has suddenly left the building and that this is going to come around and bite even the big cap stocks.' https://t.co/7eRE6vyUaT by @McClellanOsc" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1626664173991247872) 2023-02-17T19:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition #Demographics is destiny. Depopulation is #deflationary 📉 Can someone please help me find the famous End of The Dollar in this chart 👇 (State Street) https://t.co/mlleuBUN4d Can someone please help me find the famous End of The Dollar in this chart 👇 (State Street) https://t.co/mlleuBUN4d" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1627730269896839168) 2023-02-20T18:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition US Treasury #Bonds #YieldCurve 📉👀 We sent some headlines today https://t.co/nC5A9ap5uJ We sent some headlines today https://t.co/nC5A9ap5uJ" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1629223327423410176) 2023-02-24T20:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 Credit is coming due https://t.co/nqZEAL7evn Credit is coming due https://t.co/nqZEAL7evn" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1629491497174441985) 2023-02-25T14:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #inflation edition [--] Household finance are healthy but gaining weight Household leverage wealth & savings are not concerning but fragilities are appearing in the form of new delinquencies rising debt-servicing ratios & tighter credit conditions. A concern especially for lower income families https://t.co/GgxGirIfhv [--] Household finance are healthy but gaining weight Household leverage wealth & savings are not concerning but fragilities are appearing in the form of new delinquencies rising debt-servicing ratios & tighter credit conditions. A concern especially for lower" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1629513691598311424) 2023-02-25T16:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition Another source of US #Dollar strength. and #Euro weakness. #fx #forex $EUR $EURUSD 📉 Since Feb. [----] the US has exported about 38% more crude products to Europe than the prior [--] months: Kpler data. US natural gas shipments to Europe more than doubled last yr. US energy now is becoming one of the foundations of European energy security. https://t.co/zMLTrP5brQ Since Feb. [----] the US has exported about 38% more crude products to Europe than the prior [--] months: Kpler data. US natural gas shipments to Europe more than doubled last yr. US" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1629991158700204033) 2023-02-26T23:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #StockMarket Bubble edition $FUBO FUBAR 📉 🩸 ⚠FUBOTV SHARES REVERSE COURSE FALL 18.1% IN PREMARKET TRADE FOLLOWING RESULTS ⚠FUBOTV SHARES REVERSE COURSE FALL 18.1% IN PREMARKET TRADE FOLLOWING RESULTS" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1630211310913978370) 2023-02-27T14:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 $HYG the writing is on the wall. High yield (junk) bonds lost the 200-MA and never regained it. @RyanDetrick https://t.co/VFNhv3xEEG $HYG the writing is on the wall. High yield (junk) bonds lost the 200-MA and never regained it. @RyanDetrick https://t.co/VFNhv3xEEG" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1630674378735374336) 2023-02-28T21:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #Fed Pushing on a String edition US Treasury #Bonds 10yr vs 30yr #inversion worsening 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1630975219954491393) 2023-03-01T16:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition #YieldCurve 📉 🥶" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1631139759929323520) 2023-03-02T03:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1632554200277352448) 2023-03-06T01:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "$HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1632792350836633601t=s01XQ55htSCpDbOPqAO8UQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1632792350836633601t=s01XQ55htSCpDbOPqAO8UQ&s=19" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1632803835046666241) 2023-03-06T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Bonds edition $HYG $HYGH $LQD 📉 Markets keep pricing in higher Fed Funds rates yet relative rates for risky borrowing remain suppressed - despite loan officers recognising the tightening conditions. High yield might well be in mini bubble right now. https://t.co/QeO8PrJrl7 Markets keep pricing in higher Fed Funds rates yet relative rates for risky borrowing remain suppressed - despite loan officers recognising the tightening conditions. High yield might well be in mini bubble right now. https://t.co/QeO8PrJrl7" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1633400200659345408) 2023-03-08T09:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition 3m/10yr #YieldCurve [----] bps 📉 🥶" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1634044357128122368) 2023-03-10T04:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Bonds edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 Bonds got bid on Friday but not necessarily the high risk yield. $HYG was 🔴 [--] dma rolling over it. Risk off. $QQQ $SPY $SPX https://t.co/EYd6IV7WJ2 Bonds got bid on Friday but not necessarily the high risk yield. $HYG was 🔴 [--] dma rolling over it. Risk off. $QQQ $SPY $SPX https://t.co/EYd6IV7WJ2" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1634633240425406464) 2023-03-11T19:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition $TLH $TLT $EDV #ZB_F 📈 👀 ⚠U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY FUTURES FOR JUNE JUMP [--] TICKS IN ASIA ⚠U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY FUTURES FOR JUNE JUMP [--] TICKS IN ASIA" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1635042472626905088) 2023-03-12T22:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble [---] edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 🥶 Today's surge in U.S. high-yield bond spreads was the biggest one day pop since March [----]. https://t.co/eP5QLqeSqC Today's surge in U.S. high-yield bond spreads was the biggest one day pop since March [----]. https://t.co/eP5QLqeSqC" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1635433961567719424) 2023-03-14T00:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition #Yield 📉 👀 🚨 BREAKING 🚨 *US TWO-YEAR YIELDS ERASE ADVANCE SLIDING [--] BASIS POINTS 🚨 BREAKING 🚨 *US TWO-YEAR YIELDS ERASE ADVANCE SLIDING [--] BASIS POINTS" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1635533704922824705) 2023-03-14T06:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 Exactly this Junk Bonds are now crying for bailouts. All Yellen achieved was to trigger a game of Whack-a-Mole https://t.co/gSQfE0tITY Exactly this Junk Bonds are now crying for bailouts. All Yellen achieved was to trigger a game of Whack-a-Mole https://t.co/gSQfE0tITY" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1635571603722620929) 2023-03-14T09:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 Some riskier junk is showing a 10% spread over treasuries -- a sign of distress https://t.co/7dAxs8GKUO Some riskier junk is showing a 10% spread over treasuries -- a sign of distress https://t.co/7dAxs8GKUO" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1635876007940063233) 2023-03-15T05:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition US #Dollar Index $DXY rocketing higher while US Treasury #Bonds #yields plunge 🥶 You dont want to bet against the USD until there is more clarity in this environment You dont want to bet against the USD until there is more clarity in this environment" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1636016621591605249) 2023-03-15T14:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Banks edition via @MattGoldstein26 Good thing he cashed out all those millions of dollars just before $SIVB stock collapsed 🙄 @MattGoldstein26 @MailOnline OMG. You cannot make this stuff up. @MattGoldstein26 @MailOnline OMG. You cannot make this stuff up" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1636588675487371265) 2023-03-17T04:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1637266188924497926) 2023-03-19T01:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 🥶 Big divergence between the MOVE Index (Treasury rate volatility through options pricing) and the Bloomberg US corporate high yield average option-adjusted spread. Predicts wider credit spreads ahead Chart: Lombard Odier #recession https://t.co/Xk9vzxTLRp Big divergence between the MOVE Index (Treasury rate volatility through options pricing) and the Bloomberg US corporate high yield average option-adjusted spread. Predicts wider credit spreads ahead Chart: Lombard Odier #recession https://t.co/Xk9vzxTLRp" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1640497814831788032) 2023-03-27T23:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 🥶" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1641622437229129728) 2023-03-31T02:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 $HYG printed a reversal candle up against the 200-MA a major volume by price area. https://t.co/zjcmOCWjhZ $HYG printed a reversal candle up against the 200-MA a major volume by price area. https://t.co/zjcmOCWjhZ" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1644106343803125760) 2023-04-06T22:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $LQD $LQDH $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉🥶 *New article Theres A Wall Of Corporate Debt Maturing And Most Is Held By Those One Step Above Junk https://t.co/V5mlb2t6Im *New article Theres A Wall Of Corporate Debt Maturing And Most Is Held By Those One Step Above Junk https://t.co/V5mlb2t6Im" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1644481799190630400) 2023-04-07T23:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition $TLT $EDV $ZROZ #ZB_F 📈 👀 ⚠YIELD ON 30-YR U.S. TREASURY NOTES DOWN [---] BPS LAST AT 3.597% ⚠YIELD ON 30-YR U.S. TREASURY NOTES DOWN [---] BPS LAST AT 3.597%" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1646130615534903296) 2023-04-12T12:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #Banks edition #Bankcollapse $IXG $BKX $XLF 📉 ☠" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1646667657939410944) 2023-04-14T00:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #GlobalTrade edition #deflation 📉 🥶 *US MARCH IMPORT PRICES DECREASE 0.6% M/M; EST. -0.1% - BBG *US MARCH IMPORT PRICES FALL 4.6% Y/Y; EST. -4.1% *US MARCH EXPORT PRICES DECREASE 0.3% M/M; EST. 0.0% *US MARCH EXPORT PRICES FALL 4.8% FROM PREVIOUS YEAR *US MARCH IMPORT PRICES DECREASE 0.6% M/M; EST. -0.1% - BBG *US MARCH IMPORT PRICES FALL 4.6% Y/Y; EST. -4.1% *US MARCH EXPORT PRICES DECREASE 0.3% M/M; EST. 0.0% *US MARCH EXPORT PRICES FALL 4.8% FROM PREVIOUS YEAR" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1646856593458475008) 2023-04-14T12:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 🥶 🔵 STORM CLOUDS GATHER OVER HIGHLY INDEBTED COMPANIES MOODY'S SAYS - Full story via Reuters at https://t.co/FAfNt33kEN https://t.co/SZfZYFOgOf 🔵 STORM CLOUDS GATHER OVER HIGHLY INDEBTED COMPANIES MOODY'S SAYS - Full story via Reuters at https://t.co/FAfNt33kEN https://t.co/SZfZYFOgOf" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1648671652480450568) 2023-04-19T12:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition The similarities to [----] keep piling up $LQD $LQDH 📉 🥶 TD Securities spots a red flag not seen since [----] coming for the $10 trillion corporate bond market. https://t.co/xOjsQst7kR https://t.co/uLecOa6qQ9 TD Securities spots a red flag not seen since [----] coming for the $10 trillion corporate bond market. https://t.co/xOjsQst7kR https://t.co/uLecOa6qQ9" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1648766567692525570) 2023-04-19T19:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Banks edition #BankingCrisis #FirstRepublicBank $BKX $XLF $KRE $PACW $FRC 📉 🥶 ⚠PACWEST DOWN 3.5% IN EXTENDED TRADE WESTERN ALLIANCE DOWN 2.6% AFTER RESULTS FROM FIRST REPUBLIC BANK - https://t.co/wXVagA44VK ⚠PACWEST DOWN 3.5% IN EXTENDED TRADE WESTERN ALLIANCE DOWN 2.6% AFTER RESULTS FROM FIRST REPUBLIC BANK - https://t.co/wXVagA44VK" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1650621186731294721) 2023-04-24T22:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements "#recession . #Tech Bubble [---] edition #semiconductors $SMH $SOX 📉 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1651622816847106048) 2023-04-27T16:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#DebtCeiling 📉 ☠https://zensecondlife.blogspot.com/2023/04/fomc-fear-of-missing-crash.htmlm=1 https://zensecondlife.blogspot.com/2023/04/fomc-fear-of-missing-crash.htmlm=1" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1651834293197627394) 2023-04-28T06:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition #bankruptcy $HYG $HYGH $JNK 👀 There are [--] Major Bankruptcies in Just [--] Months This Year Liquidation sales are on including Bed Bath and Beyond. There will be more. https://t.co/pRu4zi6Wg1 There are [--] Major Bankruptcies in Just [--] Months This Year Liquidation sales are on including Bed Bath and Beyond. There will be more. https://t.co/pRu4zi6Wg1" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1652738823254872064) 2023-04-30T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK #bankruptcy 👀 UPDATE ALERT: There have been [--] large bankruptcies in the US so far this year as of May 1st. Pipeline: Distresses debt of $309.2B is the highest level for the metric since August of [----]. @bloomberg https://t.co/7anq1JH8rK UPDATE ALERT: There have been [--] large bankruptcies in the US so far this year as of May 1st. Pipeline: Distresses debt of $309.2B is the highest level for the metric since August of [----]. @bloomberg https://t.co/7anq1JH8rK" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1653396498955259905) 2023-05-02T13:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 😬 Unless KRE finds a rally rates vol (MOVE) will continue to rise and #risk premium in high yield needs to move higher. Junk #yields less fed funds rate (white line) remains at all time tights https://t.co/FfqM8tdMbr Unless KRE finds a rally rates vol (MOVE) will continue to rise and #risk premium in high yield needs to move higher. Junk #yields less fed funds rate (white line) remains at all time tights https://t.co/FfqM8tdMbr" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1654159497818931207) 2023-05-04T16:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #Banks edition #BankingCrisis #BankRuns $IXG 📉🥶" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1654946260925943811) 2023-05-06T20:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition Rates II - US Bond Supply stymied by the Debt ceiling - Supply US coming $550-750bn extra [----] - Asia no longer buyers EU yes IR Diff. https://t.co/9FJc9CxDEv Rates II - US Bond Supply stymied by the Debt ceiling - Supply US coming $550-750bn extra [----] - Asia no longer buyers EU yes IR Diff. https://t.co/9FJc9CxDEv" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1656328702110892035) 2023-05-10T16:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 China edition Chinese reopening No #deflation 👀 #CPI #PPI #inflation 📉 #PBOC May Require More Stimulus as Chinese CPI Rises at Slowest Pace in Over Two Years https://t.co/cTbtZJRlOl #PBOC May Require More Stimulus as Chinese CPI Rises at Slowest Pace in Over Two Years https://t.co/cTbtZJRlOl" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1656544482320588803) 2023-05-11T06:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition LOL LOL" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1658224319762403330) 2023-05-15T21:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #Construction edition via @DisruptorStocks #DowJones #DJIA $INDU #YM_F 📉 $XLI $CAT 📉 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1659029224035069953) 2023-05-18T02:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Shipping edition They're gonna need a bigger $BOAT #GlobalTrade 📉 🥶" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1659063490999631873) 2023-05-18T05:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #Banks edition #BankingCrisis #DeutscheBank $DB 📉 👀 $DB https://t.co/mEN0Ib5qDm $DB https://t.co/mEN0Ib5qDm" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1659065414306119681) 2023-05-18T05:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#Twitter $TWTR" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1659434786132492289) 2023-05-19T05:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition #fx #forex $ZAR $USDZAR 👀 Even the risk of financial sanctions can be dangerous for current account deficit EMs so South Africa is at risk here. It was such sanctions that in [----] caused Turkey (orange) to decouple from its EM peers. Turkey never found its way back. South Africa must avoid this path. https://t.co/rYzgDsPMb4 Even the risk of financial sanctions can be dangerous for current account deficit EMs so South Africa is at risk here. It was such sanctions that in [----] caused Turkey (orange) to decouple from its EM peers." [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1660192159373602817) 2023-05-21T07:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #Crypto Bubble edition #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #ETH #cryptocurrency #cryptocrash 📉 🥶" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1660454083747274754) 2023-05-22T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Banks edition #BankingCrisis #BankRun $PACW 📉👀" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1660843768906678275) 2023-05-23T03:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing Bubble [---] edition First #HomeDepot $HD now Lowe's $LOW going even lower. 📉 👀 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lowes-stock-falls-after-earnings-beat-expectations-but-full-year-guidance-was-cut-amid-soft-demand-for-discretionary-items-8053c6e8 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lowes-stock-falls-after-earnings-beat-expectations-but-full-year-guidance-was-cut-amid-soft-demand-for-discretionary-items-8053c6e8" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1660958839699804161) 2023-05-23T10:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #StockMarket Bubble edition #Intuit $INTU 📉 🥶" [X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1661136511457439744) 2023-05-23T22:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #Commodities edition #Copper signaling #deflation 📉 👀 Dr Copper broke $8k/ton as concerns grow about outlook for global demand. While vital to the future immediate landscape is more challenging given the disappointment that is the sell-sides holiday [----] China reopening narrative as copper crossed $9500/ton in January @business Dr Copper broke $8k/ton as concerns grow about outlook for global demand. While vital to the future immediate landscape is more challenging given the disappointment that is the sell-sides holiday [----] China reopening narrative as copper crossed" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1661197732768514048) 2023-05-24T02:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #Tech Bubble [---] edition #semiconductors $SMH $EWT 📉 🥶" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1661313098530324481) 2023-05-24T10:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Tech Bubble [---] edition We need #AI because memories are short. #NVIDIA $NVDA 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1661504350894854145) 2023-05-24T22:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "@leadlagreport $NVDA" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1661529461907689472) 2023-05-25T00:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Crypto Bubble edition #BTC #BTCUSDT #BitcoinCrash #cryptocurrency #cryptocrash 📉" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1662577094604525570) 2023-05-27T21:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition At least US #Dollar bears are getting their face ripped off as de-dollarization gets defaced. $DXY 📈 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1663459649608388610) 2023-05-30T08:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 Germany edition That's some serious #deflation 📉 👀 Germany German Import Price Index (YoY) (Apr) $EUR Actual: -7.0% 🔴 Expected: -5.9% Previous: -3.8% Germany German Import Price Index (YoY) (Apr) $EUR Actual: -7.0% 🔴 Expected: -5.9% Previous: -3.8%" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1663788693893820417) 2023-05-31T06:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition Another rugpull for #RMBS #collateral in worldwide $USD #Repo funding markets just like in [----] but now with the added collapse of #CMBS too. 🥶 4) And this MBS Market has completely collapsed. With Wall Street landlords only managing to raise $0.6 Billion so far in [----]. That compares to $17 Billion in [----]. So quite literally - the capital is longer there for Wall Street to go and buy houses. https://t.co/ix2NB1gcFR 4) And this MBS Market has completely collapsed. With Wall Street landlords only managing to raise $0.6 Billion so far in" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1663965827954249729) 2023-05-31T17:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition 3mo/10yr #YieldCurve [----] bps 📉 ☠https://t.co/Scy6zTd2o0 https://t.co/Scy6zTd2o0" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1664104910198312960) 2023-06-01T03:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK $LQD $LQDH 📉 🔵 Large U.S. companies have been on a bond issuance binge but this rapid pace in supply may be hard to sustain ahead of expected volatility related to extending the U.S. debt ceiling and another possible move higher in interest rates. Full Story https://t.co/BensshBQZD https://t.co/O9x6ZHxkd7 🔵 Large U.S. companies have been on a bond issuance binge but this rapid pace in supply may be hard to sustain ahead of expected volatility related to extending the U.S. debt ceiling and another possible move higher in" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1664124963958452224) 2023-06-01T04:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "Trending towards #deflation 📉 R-STAR HLW ESTIMATION We updated estimates of the natural rate of interest (r-star) trend growth and the output gap for the United States Canada and the Euro Area through 2023:Q1 using the Holston-Laubach-Williams (HLW) model. #AMEC https://t.co/5kzRfX2FeR https://t.co/8lHbD3geO7 R-STAR HLW ESTIMATION We updated estimates of the natural rate of interest (r-star) trend growth and the output gap for the United States Canada and the Euro Area through 2023:Q1 using the Holston-Laubach-Williams (HLW) model. #AMEC https://t.co/5kzRfX2FeR https://t.co/8lHbD3geO7" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1664373511182495744) 2023-06-01T20:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 #CreditCrunch edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 🥶 The riskiest corporate bonds are dropping as signs of economic weakness spread raising the specter of more defaults and distress https://t.co/vkDLhNwQmV via @markets The riskiest corporate bonds are dropping as signs of economic weakness spread raising the specter of more defaults and distress https://t.co/vkDLhNwQmV via @markets" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1665456986039943173) 2023-06-04T20:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements "#recession . #GFC2 US #RealEstate Bubble [---] edition #Blackstone $BX #BREIT #REIT 📉 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1665489112340602881) 2023-06-04T22:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Crypto Bubble edition #binance #bitcoin #BNB 📉 #cryptocurrencies #cryptocrash 🥶" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1665776751174373376) 2023-06-05T17:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Tech Bubble [---] edition #Apple #AppleEvent $AAPL 📉 👀" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1665832405989740544) 2023-06-05T21:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Crypto Bubble edition Not a good sign when the #TradFi #yield goes to the moon like the #DeFi #yield. #Coinbase $COIN 🥶" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1666536115401281536) 2023-06-07T20:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements "#recession . #Tech Bubble [---] edition #AppleVR $AAPL 📉 💀 ☹ Those poor $AAPL longs. https://t.co/jxxFNE2K5p ☹ Those poor $AAPL longs. https://t.co/jxxFNE2K5p" [X Link](https://x.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1667250831987736576) 2023-06-09T19:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@InvariantPersp1 Invariant Perspective
Invariant Perspective posts on X about $usd, $smh, bubble, china the most. They currently have [------] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [---------] #
- [--] Week [-----] +20%
- [--] Month [------] -14%
- [--] Months [-------] +109%
- [--] Year [-------] -46%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +67%
- [--] Month [---] +15%
- [--] Months [-----] +145%
- [--] Year [-----] -15%
Followers: [------] #
- [--] Week [-----] +0.14%
- [--] Month [-----] +0.02%
- [--] Months [-----] +0.09%
- [--] Year [-----] +2.90%
CreatorRank: [---------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence finance countries stocks cryptocurrencies currencies technology brands travel destinations exchanges us election automotive brands
Social topic influence $usd, $smh, bubble, china, forex, inflation, debt, $nvda, stocks, $tlt
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @dimartinobooth @business @garymarcus @wsj @leadlagreport @redfin @soberlook @macroedgeres @biancoresearch @mayhem4markets @tyillc @fibonacciinves1 @bloomberg @nickgerli1 @federalreserve @dailychartbook @theterminal @markets @bradsetser @apolloglobal
Top assets mentioned Spacemesh (SMH) NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) SPDR S&P [---] ETF Trust (SPY) Bitcoin (BTC) SPX6900 (SPX) Eclipse (ES) Infinity Natural Resources, Inc (INR) Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Vixco (VIX) Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock (SMCI) KingDeFi (KRW) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"So much for the Fed rate "corridor". looks like a rate hike is happening whether the FOMC wants it or not Chart: The fed funds rate is now firmly above IOER - https://t.co/kCO6TxR9ed Chart: The fed funds rate is now firmly above IOER - https://t.co/kCO6TxR9ed"
X Link 2019-04-02T04:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"Overcapacity = #deflation Capex weakens as central banks maintain currency wars. Not a surprise as easy money perpetuates overcapacity. https://t.co/gO7QNMlpl5 Capex weakens as central banks maintain currency wars. Not a surprise as easy money perpetuates overcapacity. https://t.co/gO7QNMlpl5"
X Link 2019-04-05T21:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . US #deflation edition Plunge in core PPI inflation underscores that inflation cycle is the thing to watch. With ECRIs USFIG still falling inflation cycle downturn is not going away anytime soon. Plunge in core PPI inflation underscores that inflation cycle is the thing to watch. With ECRIs USFIG still falling inflation cycle downturn is not going away anytime soon"
X Link 2019-08-09T20:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . US #Deflation Forecast edition Chart: The US stock market is sending a deflationary signal - https://t.co/eoVlDpILQr Chart: The US stock market is sending a deflationary signal - https://t.co/eoVlDpILQr"
X Link 2019-10-09T09:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . US #Deflation edition "The only kind of deflation that really matters is that in our wages. The other deflation that becomes problematic is falling home prices." with the Money Tree Podcast 11.14.19 https://t.co/wSK6ix2IEy "The only kind of deflation that really matters is that in our wages. The other deflation that becomes problematic is falling home prices." with the Money Tree Podcast 11.14.19 https://t.co/wSK6ix2IEy"
X Link 2019-11-14T16:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . US #Producer #Prices #Services edition Looks like the #Manfacturing #Recession is now spreading to #Services. That's quite the steep plunge We'll see if the #Fed #RateCuts #Repo #Operations and #NotQE have any effect. Note not so much the recent decline in services prices among producers but rather how high off trend these prices reached recently in current cycle which has been extraordinary on so many levels not just its length. @SoberLook https://t.co/MV2JVxmBYr Note not so much the recent decline in services prices among producers but rather how high off trend these prices"
X Link 2019-12-14T23:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . US #Consumer #Confidence vs #PMI edition Eerie how similar the setup is to [--] years ago. except now: 1) financial system much more fragile 2) Trillion dollar budget deficits instead of surpluses 3) much lower economic growth rates 4) much lower interest rates Americans already don't like [----] as shown in this morning's Consumer Confidence Survey and have a perfect [--] out of [--] record in calling recessions https://t.co/HAVVfIzDZm Americans already don't like [----] as shown in this morning's Consumer Confidence Survey and have a perfect [--] out of [--] record in calling recessions"
X Link 2020-01-01T04:37Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . China #RealEstate #Bubble edition Can you spot the peak year of the Evergrande #housing bubble 🤔 A Chinese developer is offering discounts for apartments over Chinese New Year https://t.co/aXppvCVPP2 A Chinese developer is offering discounts for apartments over Chinese New Year https://t.co/aXppvCVPP2"
X Link 2020-01-03T05:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #SPX #Leverage edition How much of these #buybacks at record #valuations were paid for with borrowed money When EPS goes negative stocks will collapse not just due to the losses & valuation contraction but also due to new share issuance & credit downgrades. Past [--] years $SPX companies spent $114 on buybacks for every $100 in capex). Prior [--] years were $60 per $100 of capex. Past [--] years $SPX companies spent $114 on buybacks for every $100 in capex). Prior [--] years were $60 per $100 of capex"
X Link 2020-01-05T19:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition #FX #Peso $MXN $USDMXN https://x.com/EffMktHype/status/1238033566220476416s=19 What a fucking headfake Feb was for USDMXN https://t.co/DpUgzq9t0h https://x.com/EffMktHype/status/1238033566220476416s=19 What a fucking headfake Feb was for USDMXN https://t.co/DpUgzq9t0h"
X Link 2020-03-12T09:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition Indonesia #Rupiah $IDR -1.0% vs $USD Philippine #Peso $PHP -0.7% vs $USD Thai #Bhat $THB -0.7% vs $USD #FX #Currency https://x.com/markets/status/1238033645446758405s=19 Stocks trip 10% circuit breakers as emerging Asia rout snowballs https://t.co/UavVbz3cKR https://t.co/I9rqzBcwV8 https://x.com/markets/status/1238033645446758405s=19 Stocks trip 10% circuit breakers as emerging Asia rout snowballs https://t.co/UavVbz3cKR https://t.co/I9rqzBcwV8"
X Link 2020-03-12T09:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #CentralBanks edition The Swiss National Bank (ticker: #SWZNF) is way ahead of the #Fed on this one. And also a major beneficiary of #Fed largesse. up 13.2% today after being down 37% at last month's market low with their portfolio of #FAAMG #stocks. next up a $FED etf next up a $FED etf"
X Link 2020-04-15T23:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition Now we find out which #sovereign #bonds will be the winners in the worldwide competition for government funding. Don't bet against the US #Dollar $DXY 📈 And so the US has entered the 'Magic Money Tree' realm. I am actually glad because now everyone will learn how flawed the theory is. Expect crowding-out in the fin markets stagflation (or "deprflation") and demands of "free money for all". #MMT https://t.co/Qyyh2etV8B And so the US has entered the 'Magic Money Tree' realm. I am actually glad because now everyone will learn how flawed the"
X Link 2020-05-16T06:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition The only difference among these countries is: did the fall start during the 2014-16 US #Dollar breakout or the 2018-present #USD breakout The past decade has been difficult for EM. I've flagged how Argentina & Brazil per capita GDP has fallen which some call a "lost decade." The reality is that many other EMs also struggle. South Africa is down Russia close to flat & Turkey a success story stagnant since [----]. https://t.co/IyIKblSxGJ The past decade has been difficult for EM. I've flagged how Argentina & Brazil per capita GDP has"
X Link 2020-05-25T02:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . US #Manufacturing edition #deflation ahead as these get liquidated. 📉 New record high in Inventory/Sales Ratio in April. Next up NY Fed to begin buying manufactured inventories. https://t.co/C1kmNJKtsj New record high in Inventory/Sales Ratio in April. Next up NY Fed to begin buying manufactured inventories. https://t.co/C1kmNJKtsj"
X Link 2020-05-28T22:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition Pushing on a string. Via @SoberLook https://t.co/TSqwO9Rm06 Pushing on a string. Via @SoberLook https://t.co/TSqwO9Rm06"
X Link 2020-06-02T03:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition Remember the #GreatRecession Good Times 👇 For the first time in its history (going all the way back to 1957) the core CPI (SA) declined for the third month in a row in May. Never happened before not even during the worst of the Great "Recession." And this thing is just getting started. https://t.co/j6S2SV6Jo2 https://t.co/qZzzIlTmlx For the first time in its history (going all the way back to 1957) the core CPI (SA) declined for the third month in a row in May. Never happened before not even during the worst of the Great "Recession." And this thing is"
X Link 2020-06-11T14:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . US #Housing #Bubble [---] edition The #Fed is still pushing on a string. #RealEstate #Property #RMBS #REITs According to https://t.co/lLIQw7Sq0U listings were down by 30% in early May over the prior year. They are still down a hefty 21% and are unlikely to shrink much further. https://t.co/0j9jpuDhU0 According to https://t.co/lLIQw7Sq0U listings were down by 30% in early May over the prior year. They are still down a hefty 21% and are unlikely to shrink much further. https://t.co/0j9jpuDhU0"
X Link 2020-06-17T18:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition The sharpest QoQ decline in the nonfarm business price deflator since 1949Q2 and the first YoY falloff since 1950Q1 and everyone is going ape over inflation https://t.co/lR5lqjSCu8 The sharpest QoQ decline in the nonfarm business price deflator since 1949Q2 and the first YoY falloff since 1950Q1 and everyone is going ape over inflation https://t.co/lR5lqjSCu8"
X Link 2020-08-14T19:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . China $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition Chinese #M2 #money supply growth slows even as #TSF #credit growth accelerates. 📉 China Injects $500 Billion In New Monthly Credit As Surge In US Real Yields Looms https://t.co/iS3iekYp07 China Injects $500 Billion In New Monthly Credit As Surge In US Real Yields Looms https://t.co/iS3iekYp07"
X Link 2020-09-14T01:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition US household income expectations are rolling over. https://t.co/AaoHTR5h2N US household income expectations are rolling over. https://t.co/AaoHTR5h2N"
X Link 2020-09-21T10:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition The US #dollar #destruction of #GFC2 is just getting started. 📉 The cash on the sidelines is being spent. https://t.co/bC800gmIkn The cash on the sidelines is being spent. https://t.co/bC800gmIkn"
X Link 2020-09-26T22:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #Eurozone #Deflation edition #ECB harmony breaking down as they keep pushing on a string. 📉 https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/09/29/why-arent-bond-yields-flying-higher-globally-exhibit-a-germany-europe/ https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/09/29/why-arent-bond-yields-flying-higher-globally-exhibit-a-germany-europe/"
X Link 2020-10-01T09:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition $TLT 📈"
X Link 2020-10-02T17:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition Bingo And the really #Deflationary aspect is that millions of Americans are now exhausting their six months of state #UnemploymentBenefits with no new #jobs in sight as labor force participation continues to contract to 1980s levels. The deflation associated with [----] million Americans collecting unemployment benefits is undeniable especially as job losses rise on the income ladder. Input costs are rising at the same time suggesting nasty stagflation will be the encore as fiscal spending goes off the rails. The deflation associated with [----] million"
X Link 2020-10-02T20:15Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition The weakening economic recovery shows that deflation is a bigger concern than inflation says economist @agaryshilling (via @bopinion) https://t.co/jEqddCdQmD The weakening economic recovery shows that deflation is a bigger concern than inflation says economist @agaryshilling (via @bopinion) https://t.co/jEqddCdQmD"
X Link 2020-10-14T00:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 Australia #Housing #Bubble edition"
X Link 2020-10-15T04:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Banks edition The #Fed must be tired of pushing on a string. #MMT #CBDC 👇 Everyone should read this Payments and the Pandemic Speech by Loretta J. Mester President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland https://t.co/0WkTmWjcCP Everyone should read this Payments and the Pandemic Speech by Loretta J. Mester President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland https://t.co/0WkTmWjcCP"
X Link 2020-10-17T21:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition #RealEstate #Housing #REIT #Property Im in Awe of How Fast Rents Plunge in San Francisco New York Boston Los Angeles Other Expensive Cities. Rents Decline Even in Houston & Dallas. National Average Turns Negative. https://t.co/BZ6EfkEz6p https://t.co/R6PvbxVPj5 Im in Awe of How Fast Rents Plunge in San Francisco New York Boston Los Angeles Other Expensive Cities. Rents Decline Even in Houston & Dallas. National Average Turns Negative. https://t.co/BZ6EfkEz6p https://t.co/R6PvbxVPj5"
X Link 2020-10-30T17:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #deflation edition *Many analysts believe inflation will surge like the 1970s - but IMO disinflation is still likely For EX: global demands constrained via heavy debt burdens theres significant over-capacity (gluts) via zombie firms greater tech has diminished marginal pricing/wage powers https://t.co/RQDVgFsNW7 *Many analysts believe inflation will surge like the 1970s - but IMO disinflation is still likely For EX: global demands constrained via heavy debt burdens theres significant over-capacity (gluts) via zombie firms greater tech has diminished marginal pricing/wage"
X Link 2020-11-22T03:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #StockMarket #Bubble edition "You've created a bubble. Perhaps the tools at the #Fed are too blunt to recognize this." 🤣 https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc201201/ https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc201201/"
X Link 2020-12-04T12:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #deflation edition #inequality is #deflationary 📉 This story about desperate Americans shoplifting food and diapers is heartbreaking. https://t.co/EsgtUPg5lm https://t.co/9lJVzl09FZ This story about desperate Americans shoplifting food and diapers is heartbreaking. https://t.co/EsgtUPg5lm https://t.co/9lJVzl09FZ"
X Link 2020-12-11T00:38Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #deflation edition With the CPI flat at 1.2% YoY the economy is not experiencing "persistent high inflation." Since Aug [----] the YoY% of the CPI has been trending lower not higher indicating persistent deflation. 2/ With the CPI flat at 1.2% YoY the economy is not experiencing "persistent high inflation." Since Aug [----] the YoY% of the CPI has been trending lower not higher indicating persistent deflation. 2/"
X Link 2020-12-13T20:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #deflation edition Jay Powell went on [--] Minutes in May and lied through his teeth about digital money printing. For about two weeks a few people believed him (outside the fin'l media). That's all gone now. Because there was no money printing. It really is that simple. https://t.co/3w4UjaWzLx https://t.co/aPq2tZHiKd Jay Powell went on [--] Minutes in May and lied through his teeth about digital money printing. For about two weeks a few people believed him (outside the fin'l media). That's all gone now. Because there was no money printing. It really is that simple."
X Link 2020-12-15T00:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition If inflation even a tiny bit realistic the swap market would be going nuts about it. Trillions in "fixed" income as well as more in balance sheet factors on the line. Spreads would be decompressing. Nope. Spreads compressing right in the middle curve. https://t.co/5PJwpm1Wpr https://t.co/2BsNCGsIwq If inflation even a tiny bit realistic the swap market would be going nuts about it. Trillions in "fixed" income as well as more in balance sheet factors on the line. Spreads would be decompressing. Nope. Spreads compressing right in the middle curve."
X Link 2020-12-17T01:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition Forget #NAIRU. we may be headed below #NADRU: the Non-Accelerating Deflation Rate of #Unemployment. 📉 The only thing mildly inflationary is WTI and investors there are betting solely on the vaccine(s) erasing all of this before doing even more permanent damage than already has been done. No wonder oil prices haven't really gone up all that much. https://t.co/rrl4b2EAX2 https://t.co/xh5WVtfPCD The only thing mildly inflationary is WTI and investors there are betting solely on the vaccine(s) erasing all of this before doing even more permanent damage"
X Link 2020-12-22T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Fed Pushing on a String edition The #PCE #deflator the #Inflation measure preferred by the #Fed sank to 1.13% in Nov from 1.19% in Oct and 1.35% in Sept. despite trillions of dollars of #QE in [----]. https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/12/23/evidence-only-for-hysteria/ https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/12/23/evidence-only-for-hysteria/"
X Link 2020-12-23T21:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition The #deflationary pairs trade: $TLT 📈 #Gold 📉 THREAD 👇"
X Link 2020-12-31T06:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@AnalystDC Is the South Korean Won the canary in the #Eurodollar coal mine $KRW $USDKRW"
X Link 2021-01-31T02:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #UST #Bonds edition Long-end Treasury Bonds #volatility is a #Fed nightmare. 👇 This is NOT picture Powell wants to carry into the weekend. MOVE closed at north of [--] today. Will it close next week at double its September 29th low point of [--] Lets just say Powell praying the MOVE will cease & desist its move upwards @Quillintel @SoberLook https://t.co/dtYOKJBZmB This is NOT picture Powell wants to carry into the weekend. MOVE closed at north of [--] today. Will it close next week at double its September 29th low point of [--] Lets just say Powell praying the MOVE will cease &"
X Link 2021-02-19T23:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Deflation edition #RetailSales 📉 BofA was the only bank to correctly call the massive January retail sales surge. It now expects a collapse in Feb: -3.0% vs -0.2% consensus. BofA was the only bank to correctly call the massive January retail sales surge. It now expects a collapse in Feb: -3.0% vs -0.2% consensus"
X Link 2021-03-12T02:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #UST #Bonds edition The Big #Banks have been buying #Treasury #Bonds as if they're going out of style. 👇 #Zoltan https://t.co/AzePlMFkJ3 #Zoltan https://t.co/AzePlMFkJ3"
X Link 2021-03-24T20:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #UST #Bonds edition Why the #Fed #Dollar Swap Lines with other #CentralBanks during #USD shortages actually reinforce the dominance of the $USD.👇 Love conquers all. Love conquers all"
X Link 2021-03-31T21:23Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #MarginCall edition As the #Fed ran the #liquidity taps wide open #HedgeFunds took full advantage to lever up. We know how this movie ends but this sequel may be the biggest yet 👇 The leverage being extended from all corners of the world to US hedge funds over the past [--] months is INSANE. Chart courtesy of @AlderLaneeggs. https://t.co/O6FHigiqvI The leverage being extended from all corners of the world to US hedge funds over the past [--] months is INSANE. Chart courtesy of @AlderLaneeggs. https://t.co/O6FHigiqvI"
X Link 2021-04-01T01:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing #Bubble [---] edition #RealEstate #property #REIT Living the American Dream. Limited housing supply low rates a global reach for yield and what we're calling the institutionalization of real-estate investors has set the stage for another speculative investor-driven home price bubble. https://t.co/y0SX9StxIW Living the American Dream. Limited housing supply low rates a global reach for yield and what we're calling the institutionalization of real-estate investors has set the stage for another speculative investor-driven home price bubble. https://t.co/y0SX9StxIW"
X Link 2021-06-12T20:04Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Crypto #Bubble edition #Binance #Tether #Bitcoin #USDT #StableCoin #cryptocurrency"
X Link 2021-07-06T04:34Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing #Bubble [---] edition What happens when Forbearance ends @paranoidbull @DiMartinoBooth "14.7% of the [---] million FHA mortgages outstanding nationwide were delinquent as of May up slightly from the previous month- 10.5% of these loans were seriously delinquent" https://t.co/MPLYdDjAkS What happens when Forbearance ends @paranoidbull @DiMartinoBooth "14.7% of the [---] million FHA mortgages outstanding nationwide were delinquent as of May up slightly from the previous month- 10.5% of these loans were seriously delinquent" https://t.co/MPLYdDjAkS"
X Link 2021-07-06T20:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing #Bubble [---] edition #RealEstate #REIT #Property Full story. No paywall. https://t.co/Tjt9ueKYEs Full story. No paywall. https://t.co/Tjt9ueKYEs"
X Link 2021-07-14T21:29Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #Housing #Bubble edition #RealEstate #mortgages Canada: We're getting concerned about 16% of new mortgages being written at more than 4.5x income. Australia: Hold my beer. 19.1% of new mortgages being written with a debt to income ratio higher than 6x. #ResponsibleLending https://t.co/8sZCJC9YIA Canada: We're getting concerned about 16% of new mortgages being written at more than 4.5x income. Australia: Hold my beer. 19.1% of new mortgages being written with a debt to income ratio higher than 6x. #ResponsibleLending https://t.co/8sZCJC9YIA"
X Link 2021-07-22T06:54Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #Housing #Bubble edition At least most of the #Millenials and #GenZ will be spared having to make #mortgage payments since they won't be able to afford a home in the first place. Housing Affordability by Generation (average % of gross income servicing mortgage debt over life of loan) - Gen X buying in [----] (25.5%) - Boomer buying in [----] (19.5%) - Silent Gen buying in [----] (11.2%) https://t.co/g6Wkowy1wU Housing Affordability by Generation (average % of gross income servicing mortgage debt over life of loan) - Gen X buying in [----] (25.5%) - Boomer buying in [----] (19.5%) -"
X Link 2021-07-23T00:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing #Bubble [---] edition via @AvidCommentator Banks are now bundling and selling default risk on mortgage loans to yield-hungry investors https://t.co/U83UQHUSHw via @WSJ Banks are now bundling and selling default risk on mortgage loans to yield-hungry investors https://t.co/U83UQHUSHw via @WSJ"
X Link 2021-07-28T14:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #StockMarket #Bubble edition "Perennial Energy". the most fitting name since "Long Term Capital Management" (LTCM) New on the Odd Lots blog - the story of one stock's very brief adventure in benchmark indices and one of my favorite charts of the year. https://t.co/JrOfSU3JdX https://t.co/N6gQxNP4Du New on the Odd Lots blog - the story of one stock's very brief adventure in benchmark indices and one of my favorite charts of the year. https://t.co/JrOfSU3JdX https://t.co/N6gQxNP4Du"
X Link 2021-08-12T06:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 China #GDP edition And this is before #Evergrande defaults"
X Link 2021-09-17T08:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Debt #Bubble edition In Legislative Hail Mary Democrats Link Debt Ceiling To Spending Bill https://t.co/fF6hRivGK2 In Legislative Hail Mary Democrats Link Debt Ceiling To Spending Bill https://t.co/fF6hRivGK2"
X Link 2021-09-20T21:46Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition #FX #forex $VEF $USDVEF Currency chop #Venezuela launches a new digital currency with six fewer zeroes. @StePozzebonhas all the details on the country's 'digital bolivar' and their attempt to combat hyperinflation. Plus the latest on El Salvador's adoption of #bitcoin. https://t.co/qQh56irXWT Currency chop #Venezuela launches a new digital currency with six fewer zeroes. @StePozzebonhas all the details on the country's 'digital bolivar' and their attempt to combat hyperinflation. Plus the latest on El Salvador's adoption of"
X Link 2021-10-01T16:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Fed Pushing on a String edition So much for the "Fed Put". 📉 Elizabeth Warren Calls For SEC To Investigate Federal Reserve Officials Trading Activities - @WSJ https://t.co/4fglmrRccx Elizabeth Warren Calls For SEC To Investigate Federal Reserve Officials Trading Activities - @WSJ https://t.co/4fglmrRccx"
X Link 2021-10-04T17:16Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #StockMarket #Bubble edition #Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #ETH #cryptocurrency #cryptocurrencies Congressman Emmer's key argument in FT against regulation of crypto coins by the SEC is that regulation would cause the value of the coins to plummet. Keep bubbles and Ponzi schemes going to protect the retail investors I don't know where to begin. https://t.co/jCMibpUBcm Congressman Emmer's key argument in FT against regulation of crypto coins by the SEC is that regulation would cause the value of the coins to plummet. Keep bubbles and Ponzi schemes going to protect the retail investors I"
X Link 2021-10-09T20:00Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Debt #Bubble edition What investors view as wealth is actually just the current price of their future wealth. read on for charts discussion and all the 'whatabouts' https://t.co/zYm1S60Jfk What investors view as wealth is actually just the current price of their future wealth. read on for charts discussion and all the 'whatabouts' https://t.co/zYm1S60Jfk"
X Link 2021-10-18T22:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #StockMarket #Bubble edition Record high leverage and record low cash. what could go wrong 🤔"
X Link 2021-11-22T18:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Debt #Bubble edition Where Is The Debt In Q1 [----] total public and private debt was 345% of US GDP. Today total public and private debt is 372% of US GDP. Debt levels are similar but the composition has radically changed. A breakdown of US Debt to GDP 👇 1/ https://t.co/nAvZILXL6w Where Is The Debt In Q1 [----] total public and private debt was 345% of US GDP. Today total public and private debt is 372% of US GDP. Debt levels are similar but the composition has radically changed. A breakdown of US Debt to GDP 👇 1/ https://t.co/nAvZILXL6w"
X Link 2021-12-17T17:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Global #Corporate #Debt #Bubble edition $EMHY $HYG $JNK 📉 Emerging markets HY vs US HY New lows are coming https://t.co/GYL74jhpxX Emerging markets HY vs US HY New lows are coming https://t.co/GYL74jhpxX"
X Link 2022-02-11T01:25Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GTC2 #Eurozone #Consumer edition Besides confidence real disposed income is also going down as negotiated nominal wages are quite moderate and below inflation (see chart). No wage-price spiral is in sight despite the high inflation. The external shocks are creating their own recessionary drive. 2/ https://t.co/StrCqZt1J1 Besides confidence real disposed income is also going down as negotiated nominal wages are quite moderate and below inflation (see chart). No wage-price spiral is in sight despite the high inflation. The external shocks are creating their own recessionary drive."
X Link 2022-03-28T21:51Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #CentralBanks Pushing on a String edition Can a central bank's stock price go down 🤔 $SNBN"
X Link 2022-04-28T06:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition US #Dollar is not just as good as #gold. right now it's better. $DXY 📈 It's tiring fielding calls about "what's wrong with gold Answer: nothing. It's about a 20-year high U.S. dollar. Gold has actually done better than most other currencies: YTD it is +10% versus the euro +11% versus the pound and +15% versus the yen. #RosenbergResearch It's tiring fielding calls about "what's wrong with gold Answer: nothing. It's about a 20-year high U.S. dollar. Gold has actually done better than most other currencies: YTD it is +10% versus the euro"
X Link 2022-05-10T15:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 China #Housing #Bubble edition Chinese #Currency doesn't like it either #FX #forex $CNH $USDCNH The [--] bps Cut in LPR does not seem enough CSI [---] Real estate index -1% The [--] bps Cut in LPR does not seem enough CSI [---] Real estate index -1%"
X Link 2022-05-20T02:39Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition $TLT 📈 FED'S BULLARD: WE CAN BE LOWERING RATES IN [----] OR [----] IF WE GET INFLATION UNDER CONTROL. FED'S BULLARD: WE CAN BE LOWERING RATES IN [----] OR [----] IF WE GET INFLATION UNDER CONTROL"
X Link 2022-05-20T17:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #PrivateEquity edition The #ARKK model of selling liquid assets to double down on illiquid assets 🤦♀👇 This will end in tears. Private assets will be marked down as many rely on public markets for ultimate liquidity. https://t.co/Rzxw8vPDGo This will end in tears. Private assets will be marked down as many rely on public markets for ultimate liquidity. https://t.co/Rzxw8vPDGo"
X Link 2022-05-27T00:11Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Crypto #Bubble edition $MSTR definitely not MacroStrategy #BitcoinCrash #Cryptocrash 📉 @MktsInsider That is what I call a MICROSTRATEGY @MktsInsider That is what I call a MICROSTRATEGY"
X Link 2022-06-16T01:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #Repo #Collateral Crunch edition Rising worldwide $USD funding stress What meltdown Not only is 4w bill under 1% 3m bill is now less than both IOER AND RRP. Even though 100-bps-at-a-time Powell Hikeman is going to push rates up a lot he says in the next three months 3m bill isn't even above current "floor." https://t.co/eCYCTfkx67 https://t.co/evXHoqspjZ What meltdown Not only is 4w bill under 1% 3m bill is now less than both IOER AND RRP. Even though 100-bps-at-a-time Powell Hikeman is going to push rates up a lot he says in the next three months 3m bill isn't even above"
X Link 2022-06-16T18:21Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . US #Treasury #Bonds edition US Treasuries aren't regular investments. They may be to you and me but mostly they are balance sheet tools for use as currency by the biggest players in the monetary/financial world. That means there are times when returns on UST don't matter. https://t.co/Jjw7agraZ0 US Treasuries aren't regular investments. They may be to you and me but mostly they are balance sheet tools for use as currency by the biggest players in the monetary/financial world. That means there are times when returns on UST don't matter. https://t.co/Jjw7agraZ0"
X Link 2022-07-09T19:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 South Korea edition More #stimulus for rising #inflation 🤔 So much for the #MMT textbook Seoul mulls easing income tax for middle to working class amid strong inflation https://t.co/1mDchEvlBL #pulse Seoul mulls easing income tax for middle to working class amid strong inflation https://t.co/1mDchEvlBL #pulse"
X Link 2022-07-12T00:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition MOVE #volatility precedes the real move. down in long-dated Treasury #yields I can't recall a day the MOVE didn't move. But there you have it. UNCH on the day at very high level -- highest since summer [----] and north of pandemic highs. Credit set-up nasty. https://t.co/gtnSzmAQqj I can't recall a day the MOVE didn't move. But there you have it. UNCH on the day at very high level -- highest since summer [----] and north of pandemic highs. Credit set-up nasty. https://t.co/gtnSzmAQqj"
X Link 2022-07-13T20:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition Bonds (GOVT TLT SCHO VCIT buying) Bonds (GOVT TLT SCHO VCIT buying)"
X Link 2022-07-15T12:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition via @SantiagoAuFund Blockbuster Demand For 20Y Auction: Record High Indirects As Foreign Buyers Scramble For Duration Ahead Of Recession https://t.co/brRtOWhNbo Blockbuster Demand For 20Y Auction: Record High Indirects As Foreign Buyers Scramble For Duration Ahead Of Recession https://t.co/brRtOWhNbo"
X Link 2022-07-20T19:09Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition #YieldCurve 📉 'An inversion in the yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession for the past half century so it's seen as a harbinger of economic doom. And it's happening now.' https://t.co/0TF7pHitEk 'An inversion in the yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession for the past half century so it's seen as a harbinger of economic doom. And it's happening now.' https://t.co/0TF7pHitEk"
X Link 2022-07-21T15:40Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition $TLT $EDV $ZROZ 📈 Whoa US Treasuries are currently printing the lowest EVER term premia on our estimates https://t.co/zqrpcnFYCI Whoa US Treasuries are currently printing the lowest EVER term premia on our estimates https://t.co/zqrpcnFYCI"
X Link 2022-08-04T21:56Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition #fx #forex $LKR $USDLKR Sri Lanka's imports fell more than 20% in Q2 worse than Argentina's and Turkey's currency crises in [----]. The drop in real income will also be brutal. Only solution is an IMF program as soon as possible. No one else will lend into this kind of chaotic situation. https://t.co/4ch58H9UMB Sri Lanka's imports fell more than 20% in Q2 worse than Argentina's and Turkey's currency crises in [----]. The drop in real income will also be brutal. Only solution is an IMF program as soon as possible. No one else will lend"
X Link 2022-08-05T12:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt #Bubble edition $LQD $LQDH $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 US corporate debt issuance is falling down 34% vs [----] YTD. Meanwhile corporate debt pricing is near lows not seen since the COVID crash. This translates to higher interest rates paid thus the lack of interest in new issuance here. https://t.co/fnWbbkKPsI US corporate debt issuance is falling down 34% vs [----] YTD. Meanwhile corporate debt pricing is near lows not seen since the COVID crash. This translates to higher interest rates paid thus the lack of interest in new issuance here. https://t.co/fnWbbkKPsI"
X Link 2022-08-08T07:13Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition #YieldCurve 📉 net money flow -1B . whoever goes inside will remain trapped with no liquidity. that's my view USD & CHF safe havens - yield curve is flattening again net money flow -1B . whoever goes inside will remain trapped with no liquidity. that's my view USD & CHF safe havens - yield curve is flattening again"
X Link 2022-08-12T18:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition $TLT $EDV $ZROZ 📈 https://t.co/XUbyDrVAi0 https://t.co/XUbyDrVAi0"
X Link 2022-08-13T01:35Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition US #Treasury #Bonds #YieldCurve 📉 03m/10YR spread 20bp 03m/10YR spread 20bp"
X Link 2022-08-29T00:24Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Fed Pushing on a String edition US #Treasury #Bonds #YieldCurve 📉 2-yr US Treasury at [-----] highest yield since [----] 2-yr US Treasury at [-----] highest yield since 2007"
X Link 2022-08-29T00:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition #YieldCurve 📉 All of the 3-month/10-year purists are about to find religion. All of the 3-month/10-year purists are about to find religion"
X Link 2022-09-13T19:33Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Treasury #Bonds edition "While Treasury securities are an important liquidity risk management tool they can be the first securities sold in a stress period given their higher liquidity relative to other bonds possibly amplifying stresses in markets." https://t.co/RbVOvd6iPL "While Treasury securities are an important liquidity risk management tool they can be the first securities sold in a stress period given their higher liquidity relative to other bonds possibly amplifying stresses in markets." https://t.co/RbVOvd6iPL"
X Link 2022-09-22T18:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt #Bubble [---] edition $LQD $LQDH 📉 LQD Investment Grade Bonds https://t.co/Kuc6bDm2sX LQD Investment Grade Bonds https://t.co/Kuc6bDm2sX"
X Link 2022-09-26T20:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 https://twitter.com/cafetero7878/status/1574516528380530688t=MDh3VImGkLSHPU72sToRug&s=19 https://twitter.com/cafetero7878/status/1574516528380530688t=MDh3VImGkLSHPU72sToRug&s=19"
X Link 2022-09-26T21:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#fx #forex #RMB #Yuan $CNH $USDCNH https://x.com/SofiaHCBBG/status/1574930352543395840t=YAs8rstpriT7DlV62jIc2g&s=19 https://x.com/SofiaHCBBG/status/1574930352543395840t=YAs8rstpriT7DlV62jIc2g&s=19"
X Link 2022-09-28T01:28Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#fx #forex $USDCNH $USDJPY $USDKRW $USDMYR $USDTWD $USDHKD $USDSGD 🥶 https://x.com/PauloMacro/status/1574936369075433472t=kVTG74sls6iKKO2eHHu2iw&s=19 Paging @UrbanKaoboy your Asian Contagion is available for pickup in the Far East https://t.co/HaM4Wnj9Pr https://x.com/PauloMacro/status/1574936369075433472t=kVTG74sls6iKKO2eHHu2iw&s=19 Paging @UrbanKaoboy your Asian Contagion is available for pickup in the Far East https://t.co/HaM4Wnj9Pr"
X Link 2022-09-28T01:43Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Global $USD #Liquidity #Squeeze edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 Credit spreads are moving up again. After sparking two global liquidations waves (Fed-Mar June-July) they only compressed a tiny bit before accelerating upward again in Aug and Sept. This is more about liquidity (collateral) than credit risk primary source of scarcity. https://t.co/blBqVpNMy8 Credit spreads are moving up again. After sparking two global liquidations waves (Fed-Mar June-July) they only compressed a tiny bit before accelerating upward again in Aug and Sept. This is more about liquidity (collateral) than"
X Link 2022-09-28T02:36Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"$LQD $LQDH 📉👀 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1574843576319676427t=AQptMYYCwtoXWfyEpFyuOA&s=19 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1574843576319676427t=AQptMYYCwtoXWfyEpFyuOA&s=19"
X Link 2022-09-28T03:17Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt #Bubble edition $LQD $LQDH 📉"
X Link 2022-09-29T19:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Bonds edition $LQD $LQDH 📉 US investment-grade bond funds suffered their third-largest cash exit on record with investors yanking $10.3 billion out of the funds in the week ended Sept. 28; Refinitiv Lipper. It marks the sixth straight week of withdrawals via @TheTerminal https://t.co/6YVI3x2kQ5 US investment-grade bond funds suffered their third-largest cash exit on record with investors yanking $10.3 billion out of the funds in the week ended Sept. 28; Refinitiv Lipper. It marks the sixth straight week of withdrawals via @TheTerminal https://t.co/6YVI3x2kQ5"
X Link 2022-09-29T23:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt #Bubble edition $LQD $LQDH $HYG $BKLN $JNK 📉 1) A measure of credit stress jumped to borderline critical zone this week. Credit market dysfunction starts beyond this point Incredibly more investors now expect wider spreads in the near term than in middle of the Global Financial $SPY $QQQ $GLD $TLT #Commodities https://t.co/FNjAi24jNI 1) A measure of credit stress jumped to borderline critical zone this week. Credit market dysfunction starts beyond this point Incredibly more investors now expect wider spreads in the near term than in middle of the Global"
X Link 2022-10-01T19:32Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #Manufacturing edition #KOSPI $KOSPI $EWY 📉 #TAIEX $TPE $EWT 📉 Global manufacturing bellwethers Korea and Taiwan stockmarkets breaking further lower https://t.co/CxXayGGmM3 Global manufacturing bellwethers Korea and Taiwan stockmarkets breaking further lower https://t.co/CxXayGGmM3"
X Link 2022-10-03T07:06Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition Now down to 3bps in the last few minutes #YieldCurve 📉 👀 The 10yr - 3m curve is at 5bps. Goodnight. The 10yr - 3m curve is at 5bps. Goodnight"
X Link 2022-10-17T22:57Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition Best news ever for the beleaguered US Treasury #Bonds market House Republicans Plan to Hold the Debt Limit Hostage Against Joe Biden https://t.co/xRWJzqJA8P House Republicans Plan to Hold the Debt Limit Hostage Against Joe Biden https://t.co/xRWJzqJA8P"
X Link 2022-10-28T10:47Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition #YieldCurve 📉 #TreasuriesToday: Yields mixed curve flatter. $177b coupon settlement ($8.3b net). 4Q financing estimate at 3pm for Wednesday's refunding announcement (Nov-Jan coupon auction size projections). Month-end index rebalancing at 4pm to extend duration by estimated 0.06yr. #TreasuriesToday: Yields mixed curve flatter. $177b coupon settlement ($8.3b net). 4Q financing estimate at 3pm for Wednesday's refunding announcement (Nov-Jan coupon auction size projections). Month-end index rebalancing at 4pm to extend duration by estimated 0.06yr"
X Link 2022-10-31T11:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing Bubble [---] edition #RealEstate #OpenDoor $OPEN 📉 Opendoor will be flirting with penny-stock status if it falls any further. $OPEN -12% today to $1.78 -88% on the year and 95% from Feb '21 high of $35.88. The Fed's rate increases have hammered the online home-flippers' business model. @WSJmarkets https://t.co/L0OJJs9clo Opendoor will be flirting with penny-stock status if it falls any further. $OPEN -12% today to $1.78 -88% on the year and 95% from Feb '21 high of $35.88. The Fed's rate increases have hammered the online home-flippers' business model."
X Link 2022-11-07T20:18Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Crypto Bubble edition #FTX #FTXCRASH #FTXbankruptcy #cryptocurrencies #cryptocrash 📉"
X Link 2022-11-11T19:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 UK #Housing Bubble edition Exodus of first-time buyers puts brakes on UK housing market https://t.co/znY4SAwzUW Exodus of first-time buyers puts brakes on UK housing market https://t.co/znY4SAwzUW"
X Link 2022-11-15T17:07Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Crypto Bubble edition #DeFi #Ethereum #ETH #ETHUSD #cryptocurrency #cryptocrash 📈 Question for Ethereum proponents What will you do if the FTX exploiter starts staking their $280m of ETH & the U.S. Govt attempts to force regulated financial institutions to censor and/or slash their stake You have the ability to do it it's just social consensus after all. Question for Ethereum proponents What will you do if the FTX exploiter starts staking their $280m of ETH & the U.S. Govt attempts to force regulated financial institutions to censor and/or slash their stake You have the ability"
X Link 2022-11-16T03:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition How Liquid Has the Treasury Market Been in2022 https://t.co/WS2JD1MheM How Liquid Has the Treasury Market Been in2022 https://t.co/WS2JD1MheM"
X Link 2022-11-16T20:58Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Crypto Bubble edition #Tether #USDT #StableCoin #FTX #SBF_FTX #AlamedaResearch #cryptocurrency #cryptocrash 📉 It has now been well established that Tethers largest so-called customer Sam Bankman-Fried is a fraud that stole billions of dollars. Its also known that he manipulated his own shitcoin markets. Its safe to assume he manipulated the bitcoin and Ethereum markets. It has now been well established that Tethers largest so-called customer Sam Bankman-Fried is a fraud that stole billions of dollars. Its also known that he manipulated his own shitcoin markets. Its safe to"
X Link 2022-11-17T05:55Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 Meanwhile this eye opening epiphany just landed on the back page of the c-section of the WSJ. MacroMavens subscribers have been following this trend for months now. By the time it makes the front page junk spreads will be in quadruple digit territory. https://t.co/uHNpJkLWod Meanwhile this eye opening epiphany just landed on the back page of the c-section of the WSJ. MacroMavens subscribers have been following this trend for months now. By the time it makes the front page junk spreads will be in quadruple digit"
X Link 2022-11-26T21:30Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #RealEstate Bubble edition #Blackstone $BX #PrivateEquity 📉 #commercialrealestate #CMBS 📉 Why Blackstones $69 Billion Property Fund Is Signaling Pain Ahead for Real Estate Industry @business #CMBS https://t.co/6NFxbfBcDQ Why Blackstones $69 Billion Property Fund Is Signaling Pain Ahead for Real Estate Industry @business #CMBS https://t.co/6NFxbfBcDQ"
X Link 2022-12-02T18:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing Bubble [---] edition The similarities to [----] keep piling up #RealEstate $RH 📉 He said this last quarter too. $RH He said this last quarter too. $RH"
X Link 2022-12-09T16:31Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Banks edition $XLF $KRE $BKX $BAC 📉"
X Link 2022-12-10T22:53Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 $TLT $EDV $ZROZ 📈"
X Link 2022-12-14T20:41Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Bonds Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 We still expect credit spreads to widen: https://t.co/U6nRoHPnSp We still expect credit spreads to widen: https://t.co/U6nRoHPnSp"
X Link 2022-12-15T19:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition #Fed rate hikes balance sheet runoff and the US government debt ceiling are all seriously bad news for the global economy. 📉 Evidence that the US government behaves strategically and exploits its market power when issuing debt and that related distortions are sizable and give rise to a significant underprovision of global safe assets from Choi Kirpalani and Perez https://t.co/Z4rP0hvaFr https://t.co/36BeXwP5cJ Evidence that the US government behaves strategically and exploits its market power when issuing debt and that related distortions"
X Link 2022-12-20T01:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 $HYG starting intermediate wave [--] of major wave [--] lower. Things are about to get ugly. Do not be long. https://t.co/BgESMwUz2T $HYG starting intermediate wave [--] of major wave [--] lower. Things are about to get ugly. Do not be long. https://t.co/BgESMwUz2T"
X Link 2022-12-27T22:57Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$HYGH 📉 ☠https://x.com/sxerriii/status/1608230233886318592t=JKfVSSXwNSX1pG_ZHpOStw&s=19 https://x.com/sxerriii/status/1608230233886318592t=JKfVSSXwNSX1pG_ZHpOStw&s=19"
X Link 2022-12-29T00:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US edition US Treasury #Bonds #yields 📉 "We're in an environment in which wage pressures are easing & the Fed can step off the ledge of large incremental fed-funds rate hikes even if policymakers maintain their hawkish rhetoric via @EYnews https://t.co/dIzmXivjfk via @vivienlouchen "We're in an environment in which wage pressures are easing & the Fed can step off the ledge of large incremental fed-funds rate hikes even if policymakers maintain their hawkish rhetoric via @EYnews https://t.co/dIzmXivjfk via @vivienlouchen"
X Link 2023-01-06T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition So much for another currency peg to the US #Dollar #fx #forex $EGP $USDEGP 📉 👀 A recipe for massive unrest https://t.co/Cs4Ql491DM A recipe for massive unrest https://t.co/Cs4Ql491DM"
X Link 2023-01-11T02:23Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition 3m/10yr #YieldCurve now [----] bps 👀 $TLT $EDV $ZROZ 📈 "Treasury Yields Sink as Swap Traders Trim Fed Bets: Markets Wrap" Like we said. "Treasury Yields Sink as Swap Traders Trim Fed Bets: Markets Wrap" Like we said"
X Link 2023-01-12T19:18Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #StockMarket Bubble edition #volatility #VIX $VXV 📈"
X Link 2023-01-12T23:58Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition Propounding that the (Egyptian) pound is getting pounded. #fx #forex $EGP $USDEGP The Egyptian currency is being . pounded into dust by devaluation https://t.co/q6IYDbgrxL The Egyptian currency is being . pounded into dust by devaluation https://t.co/q6IYDbgrxL"
X Link 2023-01-16T20:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #PrivateEquity edition $KKR #private_equity #RealEstate 📉 KKR one of the largest real estate investment houses in the world just decided to put a limit to investors' withdrawals from one of their funds. After Blackstone another huge real estate player trying to stop the bleeding by forcing investors to stay in and swallow the pain. KKR one of the largest real estate investment houses in the world just decided to put a limit to investors' withdrawals from one of their funds. After Blackstone another huge real estate player trying to stop the bleeding by forcing investors"
X Link 2023-01-19T17:27Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing Bubble [---] edition #RealEstate #RMBS #Mortgages 📉 Ouch. Worse since [----] https://t.co/CdKxnc397c Ouch. Worse since [----] https://t.co/CdKxnc397c"
X Link 2023-01-21T02:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 Credit markets ignoring what banks are doing. https://t.co/NolSB4bz5d Credit markets ignoring what banks are doing. https://t.co/NolSB4bz5d"
X Link 2023-01-25T17:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition $TLT $EDV $ZROZ #ShortSqueeze 📈 Historical data for US bond market returns tells us that the best time to buy bonds is on the penultimate hike: HSBCs Steven Major. Recent bond moves suggest the penultimate Fed rate hike is close. History suggests this is an important moment. Historical data for US bond market returns tells us that the best time to buy bonds is on the penultimate hike: HSBCs Steven Major. Recent bond moves suggest the penultimate Fed rate hike is close. History suggests this is an important moment"
X Link 2023-01-30T11:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Bonds Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉"
X Link 2023-02-02T02:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition $TLT $EDV $ZROZ 📈 We often talk about what markets are going to do next month or this year This obsession about short-term market performance puts investors at great risk of missing the forest for the trees Let's talk about where do we stand in the big macro picture and what's the end game 2/ We often talk about what markets are going to do next month or this year This obsession about short-term market performance puts investors at great risk of missing the forest for the trees Let's talk about where do we stand in the big macro picture and"
X Link 2023-02-05T05:33Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 Re the discussion with the every excellent and interesting @crossbordercap re credit. these are the kind of charts I worry about - the SLO survey leading the default rates (and credit spreads). https://t.co/daLNJcJngt Re the discussion with the every excellent and interesting @crossbordercap re credit. these are the kind of charts I worry about - the SLO survey leading the default rates (and credit spreads). https://t.co/daLNJcJngt"
X Link 2023-02-06T07:52Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition Might be wise to lock in the unsustainably higher #yield for [--] or [--] years soon before the #Fed is forced to pivot yet again. $TLT $EDV $ZROZ 📈 Households are withdrawing deposits from banks to buy Treasuries at an increased pace and it makes sense. T-Bills pay around 4% while bank deposits dont. Banks might soon need to compete more for deposits or face tighter liquidity conditions. Something worth monitoring. Households are withdrawing deposits from banks to buy Treasuries at an increased pace and it makes sense. T-Bills pay around 4% while"
X Link 2023-02-06T17:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition When a currency peg to the US #dollar breaks again and again and again. #fx #forex $EGP $USDEGP 🥶 ⚠EGYPT'S DOLLAR-DENOMINATED GOVERNMENT BONDS FALL AS MUCH AS [---] CENTS AFTER MOODY'S DOWNGRADE OF CREDIT RATING - https://t.co/wXVagA44VK ⚠EGYPT'S DOLLAR-DENOMINATED GOVERNMENT BONDS FALL AS MUCH AS [---] CENTS AFTER MOODY'S DOWNGRADE OF CREDIT RATING - https://t.co/wXVagA44VK"
X Link 2023-02-08T08:46Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #Tech Bubble [---] edition #ElectricVehicles #Rivian $RIVN $F 📉 🚘 $F sells majority of $RIVN stake https://t.co/vCvOpXosA4 🚘 $F sells majority of $RIVN stake https://t.co/vCvOpXosA4"
X Link 2023-02-10T01:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #StockMarket Bubble Hong Kong edition $HSI $HSTECH $HSCEI 📉 🥶 HSI -2% HSI TECH -4.68%. HSCEI -2.61%. Usually these magnitude of drop don't happen in a bull trend. That is all HSI -2% HSI TECH -4.68%. HSCEI -2.61%. Usually these magnitude of drop don't happen in a bull trend. That is all"
X Link 2023-02-10T07:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #Tech Bubble [---] edition #semiconductors $SMH $XSD 📉 👀"
X Link 2023-02-12T02:14Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉"
X Link 2023-02-13T22:06Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 $JNK rolled over today. https://t.co/nLNWXMeBzd $JNK rolled over today. https://t.co/nLNWXMeBzd"
X Link 2023-02-14T04:15Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition The #YieldCurve apocalypse forecast gets worse and worse. 📉 🥶"
X Link 2023-02-14T20:44Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition #SPX #SPX500 $SPY #ES_F 📉 $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 'The message from a suddenly weak HY Bond A-D Line is that financial market liquidity has suddenly left the building and that this is going to come around and bite even the big cap stocks.' https://t.co/7eRE6vyUaT by @McClellanOsc https://t.co/1o7W4NL68I 'The message from a suddenly weak HY Bond A-D Line is that financial market liquidity has suddenly left the building and that this is going to come around and bite even the big cap stocks.' https://t.co/7eRE6vyUaT by @McClellanOsc"
X Link 2023-02-17T19:25Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition #Demographics is destiny. Depopulation is #deflationary 📉 Can someone please help me find the famous End of The Dollar in this chart 👇 (State Street) https://t.co/mlleuBUN4d Can someone please help me find the famous End of The Dollar in this chart 👇 (State Street) https://t.co/mlleuBUN4d"
X Link 2023-02-20T18:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition US Treasury #Bonds #YieldCurve 📉👀 We sent some headlines today https://t.co/nC5A9ap5uJ We sent some headlines today https://t.co/nC5A9ap5uJ"
X Link 2023-02-24T20:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 Credit is coming due https://t.co/nqZEAL7evn Credit is coming due https://t.co/nqZEAL7evn"
X Link 2023-02-25T14:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #inflation edition [--] Household finance are healthy but gaining weight Household leverage wealth & savings are not concerning but fragilities are appearing in the form of new delinquencies rising debt-servicing ratios & tighter credit conditions. A concern especially for lower income families https://t.co/GgxGirIfhv [--] Household finance are healthy but gaining weight Household leverage wealth & savings are not concerning but fragilities are appearing in the form of new delinquencies rising debt-servicing ratios & tighter credit conditions. A concern especially for lower"
X Link 2023-02-25T16:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition Another source of US #Dollar strength. and #Euro weakness. #fx #forex $EUR $EURUSD 📉 Since Feb. [----] the US has exported about 38% more crude products to Europe than the prior [--] months: Kpler data. US natural gas shipments to Europe more than doubled last yr. US energy now is becoming one of the foundations of European energy security. https://t.co/zMLTrP5brQ Since Feb. [----] the US has exported about 38% more crude products to Europe than the prior [--] months: Kpler data. US natural gas shipments to Europe more than doubled last yr. US"
X Link 2023-02-26T23:45Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #StockMarket Bubble edition $FUBO FUBAR 📉 🩸 ⚠FUBOTV SHARES REVERSE COURSE FALL 18.1% IN PREMARKET TRADE FOLLOWING RESULTS ⚠FUBOTV SHARES REVERSE COURSE FALL 18.1% IN PREMARKET TRADE FOLLOWING RESULTS"
X Link 2023-02-27T14:20Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 $HYG the writing is on the wall. High yield (junk) bonds lost the 200-MA and never regained it. @RyanDetrick https://t.co/VFNhv3xEEG $HYG the writing is on the wall. High yield (junk) bonds lost the 200-MA and never regained it. @RyanDetrick https://t.co/VFNhv3xEEG"
X Link 2023-02-28T21:00Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #Fed Pushing on a String edition US Treasury #Bonds 10yr vs 30yr #inversion worsening 👀"
X Link 2023-03-01T16:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition #YieldCurve 📉 🥶"
X Link 2023-03-02T03:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀"
X Link 2023-03-06T01:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"$HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1632792350836633601t=s01XQ55htSCpDbOPqAO8UQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1632792350836633601t=s01XQ55htSCpDbOPqAO8UQ&s=19"
X Link 2023-03-06T18:02Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Bonds edition $HYG $HYGH $LQD 📉 Markets keep pricing in higher Fed Funds rates yet relative rates for risky borrowing remain suppressed - despite loan officers recognising the tightening conditions. High yield might well be in mini bubble right now. https://t.co/QeO8PrJrl7 Markets keep pricing in higher Fed Funds rates yet relative rates for risky borrowing remain suppressed - despite loan officers recognising the tightening conditions. High yield might well be in mini bubble right now. https://t.co/QeO8PrJrl7"
X Link 2023-03-08T09:32Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition 3m/10yr #YieldCurve [----] bps 📉 🥶"
X Link 2023-03-10T04:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Bonds edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 Bonds got bid on Friday but not necessarily the high risk yield. $HYG was 🔴 [--] dma rolling over it. Risk off. $QQQ $SPY $SPX https://t.co/EYd6IV7WJ2 Bonds got bid on Friday but not necessarily the high risk yield. $HYG was 🔴 [--] dma rolling over it. Risk off. $QQQ $SPY $SPX https://t.co/EYd6IV7WJ2"
X Link 2023-03-11T19:11Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition $TLH $TLT $EDV #ZB_F 📈 👀 ⚠U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY FUTURES FOR JUNE JUMP [--] TICKS IN ASIA ⚠U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY FUTURES FOR JUNE JUMP [--] TICKS IN ASIA"
X Link 2023-03-12T22:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble [---] edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 🥶 Today's surge in U.S. high-yield bond spreads was the biggest one day pop since March [----]. https://t.co/eP5QLqeSqC Today's surge in U.S. high-yield bond spreads was the biggest one day pop since March [----]. https://t.co/eP5QLqeSqC"
X Link 2023-03-14T00:13Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition #Yield 📉 👀 🚨 BREAKING 🚨 *US TWO-YEAR YIELDS ERASE ADVANCE SLIDING [--] BASIS POINTS 🚨 BREAKING 🚨 *US TWO-YEAR YIELDS ERASE ADVANCE SLIDING [--] BASIS POINTS"
X Link 2023-03-14T06:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 Exactly this Junk Bonds are now crying for bailouts. All Yellen achieved was to trigger a game of Whack-a-Mole https://t.co/gSQfE0tITY Exactly this Junk Bonds are now crying for bailouts. All Yellen achieved was to trigger a game of Whack-a-Mole https://t.co/gSQfE0tITY"
X Link 2023-03-14T09:20Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 Some riskier junk is showing a 10% spread over treasuries -- a sign of distress https://t.co/7dAxs8GKUO Some riskier junk is showing a 10% spread over treasuries -- a sign of distress https://t.co/7dAxs8GKUO"
X Link 2023-03-15T05:30Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition US #Dollar Index $DXY rocketing higher while US Treasury #Bonds #yields plunge 🥶 You dont want to bet against the USD until there is more clarity in this environment You dont want to bet against the USD until there is more clarity in this environment"
X Link 2023-03-15T14:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Banks edition via @MattGoldstein26 Good thing he cashed out all those millions of dollars just before $SIVB stock collapsed 🙄 @MattGoldstein26 @MailOnline OMG. You cannot make this stuff up. @MattGoldstein26 @MailOnline OMG. You cannot make this stuff up"
X Link 2023-03-17T04:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀"
X Link 2023-03-19T01:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 🥶 Big divergence between the MOVE Index (Treasury rate volatility through options pricing) and the Bloomberg US corporate high yield average option-adjusted spread. Predicts wider credit spreads ahead Chart: Lombard Odier #recession https://t.co/Xk9vzxTLRp Big divergence between the MOVE Index (Treasury rate volatility through options pricing) and the Bloomberg US corporate high yield average option-adjusted spread. Predicts wider credit spreads ahead Chart: Lombard Odier #recession https://t.co/Xk9vzxTLRp"
X Link 2023-03-27T23:35Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 🥶"
X Link 2023-03-31T02:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 👀 $HYG printed a reversal candle up against the 200-MA a major volume by price area. https://t.co/zjcmOCWjhZ $HYG printed a reversal candle up against the 200-MA a major volume by price area. https://t.co/zjcmOCWjhZ"
X Link 2023-04-06T22:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $LQD $LQDH $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉🥶 *New article Theres A Wall Of Corporate Debt Maturing And Most Is Held By Those One Step Above Junk https://t.co/V5mlb2t6Im *New article Theres A Wall Of Corporate Debt Maturing And Most Is Held By Those One Step Above Junk https://t.co/V5mlb2t6Im"
X Link 2023-04-07T23:26Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition $TLT $EDV $ZROZ #ZB_F 📈 👀 ⚠YIELD ON 30-YR U.S. TREASURY NOTES DOWN [---] BPS LAST AT 3.597% ⚠YIELD ON 30-YR U.S. TREASURY NOTES DOWN [---] BPS LAST AT 3.597%"
X Link 2023-04-12T12:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #Banks edition #Bankcollapse $IXG $BKX $XLF 📉 ☠"
X Link 2023-04-14T00:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #GlobalTrade edition #deflation 📉 🥶 *US MARCH IMPORT PRICES DECREASE 0.6% M/M; EST. -0.1% - BBG *US MARCH IMPORT PRICES FALL 4.6% Y/Y; EST. -4.1% *US MARCH EXPORT PRICES DECREASE 0.3% M/M; EST. 0.0% *US MARCH EXPORT PRICES FALL 4.8% FROM PREVIOUS YEAR *US MARCH IMPORT PRICES DECREASE 0.6% M/M; EST. -0.1% - BBG *US MARCH IMPORT PRICES FALL 4.6% Y/Y; EST. -4.1% *US MARCH EXPORT PRICES DECREASE 0.3% M/M; EST. 0.0% *US MARCH EXPORT PRICES FALL 4.8% FROM PREVIOUS YEAR"
X Link 2023-04-14T12:43Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 🥶 🔵 STORM CLOUDS GATHER OVER HIGHLY INDEBTED COMPANIES MOODY'S SAYS - Full story via Reuters at https://t.co/FAfNt33kEN https://t.co/SZfZYFOgOf 🔵 STORM CLOUDS GATHER OVER HIGHLY INDEBTED COMPANIES MOODY'S SAYS - Full story via Reuters at https://t.co/FAfNt33kEN https://t.co/SZfZYFOgOf"
X Link 2023-04-19T12:55Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition The similarities to [----] keep piling up $LQD $LQDH 📉 🥶 TD Securities spots a red flag not seen since [----] coming for the $10 trillion corporate bond market. https://t.co/xOjsQst7kR https://t.co/uLecOa6qQ9 TD Securities spots a red flag not seen since [----] coming for the $10 trillion corporate bond market. https://t.co/xOjsQst7kR https://t.co/uLecOa6qQ9"
X Link 2023-04-19T19:12Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Banks edition #BankingCrisis #FirstRepublicBank $BKX $XLF $KRE $PACW $FRC 📉 🥶 ⚠PACWEST DOWN 3.5% IN EXTENDED TRADE WESTERN ALLIANCE DOWN 2.6% AFTER RESULTS FROM FIRST REPUBLIC BANK - https://t.co/wXVagA44VK ⚠PACWEST DOWN 3.5% IN EXTENDED TRADE WESTERN ALLIANCE DOWN 2.6% AFTER RESULTS FROM FIRST REPUBLIC BANK - https://t.co/wXVagA44VK"
X Link 2023-04-24T22:02Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"#recession . #Tech Bubble [---] edition #semiconductors $SMH $SOX 📉 👀"
X Link 2023-04-27T16:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#DebtCeiling 📉 ☠https://zensecondlife.blogspot.com/2023/04/fomc-fear-of-missing-crash.htmlm=1 https://zensecondlife.blogspot.com/2023/04/fomc-fear-of-missing-crash.htmlm=1"
X Link 2023-04-28T06:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition #bankruptcy $HYG $HYGH $JNK 👀 There are [--] Major Bankruptcies in Just [--] Months This Year Liquidation sales are on including Bed Bath and Beyond. There will be more. https://t.co/pRu4zi6Wg1 There are [--] Major Bankruptcies in Just [--] Months This Year Liquidation sales are on including Bed Bath and Beyond. There will be more. https://t.co/pRu4zi6Wg1"
X Link 2023-04-30T18:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK #bankruptcy 👀 UPDATE ALERT: There have been [--] large bankruptcies in the US so far this year as of May 1st. Pipeline: Distresses debt of $309.2B is the highest level for the metric since August of [----]. @bloomberg https://t.co/7anq1JH8rK UPDATE ALERT: There have been [--] large bankruptcies in the US so far this year as of May 1st. Pipeline: Distresses debt of $309.2B is the highest level for the metric since August of [----]. @bloomberg https://t.co/7anq1JH8rK"
X Link 2023-05-02T13:50Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 😬 Unless KRE finds a rally rates vol (MOVE) will continue to rise and #risk premium in high yield needs to move higher. Junk #yields less fed funds rate (white line) remains at all time tights https://t.co/FfqM8tdMbr Unless KRE finds a rally rates vol (MOVE) will continue to rise and #risk premium in high yield needs to move higher. Junk #yields less fed funds rate (white line) remains at all time tights https://t.co/FfqM8tdMbr"
X Link 2023-05-04T16:22Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #Banks edition #BankingCrisis #BankRuns $IXG 📉🥶"
X Link 2023-05-06T20:28Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition Rates II - US Bond Supply stymied by the Debt ceiling - Supply US coming $550-750bn extra [----] - Asia no longer buyers EU yes IR Diff. https://t.co/9FJc9CxDEv Rates II - US Bond Supply stymied by the Debt ceiling - Supply US coming $550-750bn extra [----] - Asia no longer buyers EU yes IR Diff. https://t.co/9FJc9CxDEv"
X Link 2023-05-10T16:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 China edition Chinese reopening No #deflation 👀 #CPI #PPI #inflation 📉 #PBOC May Require More Stimulus as Chinese CPI Rises at Slowest Pace in Over Two Years https://t.co/cTbtZJRlOl #PBOC May Require More Stimulus as Chinese CPI Rises at Slowest Pace in Over Two Years https://t.co/cTbtZJRlOl"
X Link 2023-05-11T06:19Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition LOL LOL"
X Link 2023-05-15T21:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #Construction edition via @DisruptorStocks #DowJones #DJIA $INDU #YM_F 📉 $XLI $CAT 📉 👀"
X Link 2023-05-18T02:52Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Shipping edition They're gonna need a bigger $BOAT #GlobalTrade 📉 🥶"
X Link 2023-05-18T05:08Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #Banks edition #BankingCrisis #DeutscheBank $DB 📉 👀 $DB https://t.co/mEN0Ib5qDm $DB https://t.co/mEN0Ib5qDm"
X Link 2023-05-18T05:16Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#Twitter $TWTR"
X Link 2023-05-19T05:44Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #EmergingMarkets $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition #fx #forex $ZAR $USDZAR 👀 Even the risk of financial sanctions can be dangerous for current account deficit EMs so South Africa is at risk here. It was such sanctions that in [----] caused Turkey (orange) to decouple from its EM peers. Turkey never found its way back. South Africa must avoid this path. https://t.co/rYzgDsPMb4 Even the risk of financial sanctions can be dangerous for current account deficit EMs so South Africa is at risk here. It was such sanctions that in [----] caused Turkey (orange) to decouple from its EM peers."
X Link 2023-05-21T07:53Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #Crypto Bubble edition #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #ETH #cryptocurrency #cryptocrash 📉 🥶"
X Link 2023-05-22T01:14Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Banks edition #BankingCrisis #BankRun $PACW 📉👀"
X Link 2023-05-23T03:03Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Housing Bubble [---] edition First #HomeDepot $HD now Lowe's $LOW going even lower. 📉 👀 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lowes-stock-falls-after-earnings-beat-expectations-but-full-year-guidance-was-cut-amid-soft-demand-for-discretionary-items-8053c6e8 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lowes-stock-falls-after-earnings-beat-expectations-but-full-year-guidance-was-cut-amid-soft-demand-for-discretionary-items-8053c6e8"
X Link 2023-05-23T10:40Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #StockMarket Bubble edition #Intuit $INTU 📉 🥶"
X Link 2023-05-23T22:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #Commodities edition #Copper signaling #deflation 📉 👀 Dr Copper broke $8k/ton as concerns grow about outlook for global demand. While vital to the future immediate landscape is more challenging given the disappointment that is the sell-sides holiday [----] China reopening narrative as copper crossed $9500/ton in January @business Dr Copper broke $8k/ton as concerns grow about outlook for global demand. While vital to the future immediate landscape is more challenging given the disappointment that is the sell-sides holiday [----] China reopening narrative as copper crossed"
X Link 2023-05-24T02:29Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #Tech Bubble [---] edition #semiconductors $SMH $EWT 📉 🥶"
X Link 2023-05-24T10:08Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Tech Bubble [---] edition We need #AI because memories are short. #NVIDIA $NVDA 👀"
X Link 2023-05-24T22:48Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"@leadlagreport $NVDA"
X Link 2023-05-25T00:27Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Crypto Bubble edition #BTC #BTCUSDT #BitcoinCrash #cryptocurrency #cryptocrash 📉"
X Link 2023-05-27T21:50Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition At least US #Dollar bears are getting their face ripped off as de-dollarization gets defaced. $DXY 📈 👀"
X Link 2023-05-30T08:17Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 Germany edition That's some serious #deflation 📉 👀 Germany German Import Price Index (YoY) (Apr) $EUR Actual: -7.0% 🔴 Expected: -5.9% Previous: -3.8% Germany German Import Price Index (YoY) (Apr) $EUR Actual: -7.0% 🔴 Expected: -5.9% Previous: -3.8%"
X Link 2023-05-31T06:05Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition Another rugpull for #RMBS #collateral in worldwide $USD #Repo funding markets just like in [----] but now with the added collapse of #CMBS too. 🥶 4) And this MBS Market has completely collapsed. With Wall Street landlords only managing to raise $0.6 Billion so far in [----]. That compares to $17 Billion in [----]. So quite literally - the capital is longer there for Wall Street to go and buy houses. https://t.co/ix2NB1gcFR 4) And this MBS Market has completely collapsed. With Wall Street landlords only managing to raise $0.6 Billion so far in"
X Link 2023-05-31T17:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition 3mo/10yr #YieldCurve [----] bps 📉 ☠https://t.co/Scy6zTd2o0 https://t.co/Scy6zTd2o0"
X Link 2023-06-01T03:01Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #Corporate #Debt Bubble edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK $LQD $LQDH 📉 🔵 Large U.S. companies have been on a bond issuance binge but this rapid pace in supply may be hard to sustain ahead of expected volatility related to extending the U.S. debt ceiling and another possible move higher in interest rates. Full Story https://t.co/BensshBQZD https://t.co/O9x6ZHxkd7 🔵 Large U.S. companies have been on a bond issuance binge but this rapid pace in supply may be hard to sustain ahead of expected volatility related to extending the U.S. debt ceiling and another possible move higher in"
X Link 2023-06-01T04:21Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Trending towards #deflation 📉 R-STAR HLW ESTIMATION We updated estimates of the natural rate of interest (r-star) trend growth and the output gap for the United States Canada and the Euro Area through 2023:Q1 using the Holston-Laubach-Williams (HLW) model. #AMEC https://t.co/5kzRfX2FeR https://t.co/8lHbD3geO7 R-STAR HLW ESTIMATION We updated estimates of the natural rate of interest (r-star) trend growth and the output gap for the United States Canada and the Euro Area through 2023:Q1 using the Holston-Laubach-Williams (HLW) model. #AMEC https://t.co/5kzRfX2FeR https://t.co/8lHbD3geO7"
X Link 2023-06-01T20:49Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 #CreditCrunch edition $HYG $HYGH $JNK 📉 🥶 The riskiest corporate bonds are dropping as signs of economic weakness spread raising the specter of more defaults and distress https://t.co/vkDLhNwQmV via @markets The riskiest corporate bonds are dropping as signs of economic weakness spread raising the specter of more defaults and distress https://t.co/vkDLhNwQmV via @markets"
X Link 2023-06-04T20:34Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"#recession . #GFC2 US #RealEstate Bubble [---] edition #Blackstone $BX #BREIT #REIT 📉 👀"
X Link 2023-06-04T22:42Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Crypto Bubble edition #binance #bitcoin #BNB 📉 #cryptocurrencies #cryptocrash 🥶"
X Link 2023-06-05T17:45Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Tech Bubble [---] edition #Apple #AppleEvent $AAPL 📉 👀"
X Link 2023-06-05T21:26Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Crypto Bubble edition Not a good sign when the #TradFi #yield goes to the moon like the #DeFi #yield. #Coinbase $COIN 🥶"
X Link 2023-06-07T20:02Z [----] followers, [--] engagements
"#recession . #Tech Bubble [---] edition #AppleVR $AAPL 📉 💀 ☹ Those poor $AAPL longs. https://t.co/jxxFNE2K5p ☹ Those poor $AAPL longs. https://t.co/jxxFNE2K5p"
X Link 2023-06-09T19:22Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
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