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# ![@mrcudoze Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1579440745668386817.png) @mrcudoze Mr Cudoze

Mr Cudoze posts on X about ai, apple, $dg, $pypl the most. They currently have [--] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1579440745668386817/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1579440745668386817/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [---------] +368,586%
- [--] Month [---------] +428%
- [--] Months [---------] +238,715,500%
- [--] Year [---------] +238,715,600%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1579440745668386817/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1579440745668386817/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)


### Followers: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1579440745668386817/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1579440745668386817/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Months [--] +31%
- [--] Year [--] -42%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1579440745668386817/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1579440745668386817/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[stocks](/list/stocks)  [finance](/list/finance)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [exchanges](/list/exchanges) 

**Social topic influence**
[ai](/topic/ai), [apple](/topic/apple), [$dg](/topic/$dg), [$pypl](/topic/$pypl) #1389, [investment](/topic/investment), [company](/topic/company), [$para](/topic/$para), [tech](/topic/tech), [business](/topic/business), [acquisition](/topic/acquisition) #1195

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@supbagholder](/creator/undefined) [@joecarlsonshow](/creator/undefined) [@208190068ca](/creator/undefined) [@bohemianjake](/creator/undefined) [@valuedontlie](/creator/undefined) [@edels0n](/creator/undefined) [@hayekandkeynes](/creator/undefined) [@zephyrz9](/creator/undefined) [@jukan05](/creator/undefined) [@danielisdizzy](/creator/undefined) [@charliebilello](/creator/undefined) [@fei47551](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Decentral Games (DG)](/topic/$dg) [PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)](/topic/$pypl) [Paramount Global (PARA)](/topic/$para) [Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)](/topic/$amzn) [Fiserv Inc (FISV)](/topic/$fisv) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$goog) [Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA)](/topic/$wba) [4 (FOUR)](/topic/$four) [Green Brick Partners, Inc (GRBK)](/topic/$grbk) [United Rentals, Inc. (URI)](/topic/$uri) [Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI)](/topic/$hri) [Walmart, Inc. (WMT)](/topic/$wmt) [Garrett Motion Inc. Common Stock (GTX)](/topic/$gtx) [Apple, Inc. (AAPL)](/topic/$aapl)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@valuedontlie Check out $PGNT. Tiny company and trades around 1x PE. The CEO is a Buffett fan (has even written a book on Buffett) and is trying to use $PGNT as a holding company. The CEO has some questionable characteristics so I've passed on this one but something worth checking out"  
[X Link](https://x.com/mrcudoze/status/1702447038816805237)  2023-09-14T22:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@joecarlsonshow Seeing these results makes me want to buy more $PARA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1702374354305085641)  2023-09-14T17:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@joecarlsonshow $PARA has (1) TV (2) streaming and (3) film. TV expects $4.8B of EBITDA in [----]. Comps trade at 8x EV/EBITDA giving PARA's TV business an EV of $38B. PARA's entire business has $14B in net debt. This gives TV a MCap of $24B. PARAs entire MCap is $9B"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1702379622409580986)  2023-09-14T17:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"#PARA's income is significantly (but temporarily) decreased because of investments in the streaming businesses. TV is dying but is profitable and has a long enough runway. The film segment is also profitable. $PARA looks healthy IMO when broken into its individual businesses"  
[X Link](https://x.com/cudoze38/status/1702380940524150846)  2023-09-14T17:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$PARA's TV Media revenues are declining at less than 5% annually. $PARA's decreased earnings are because of investment in the steaming business which has grown revenues at 40+% annually. Streaming losses are expected to peak in 2023"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1702383586526069069)  2023-09-14T18:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@208190068CA @SupBagholder $DGs products cost 40% less than $WBAs. $DG has better unit economics. It costs $315000 to open a Dollar General and then the store makes $100000 per year. $DG can operate in towns that arent big enough to support a $WBA. $WBA is less resilient to $WMT & $AMZN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1702701370623590704)  2023-09-15T15:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@BohemianJake @SupBagholder Read the 10-K. Its all there. $DG leases their properties. Most are built-to-suit [--] year leases. WALT is [---] years"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1702701782789705778)  2023-09-15T15:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@BohemianJake @SupBagholder It helps $DG growth. With a lease $DG can open a store with minimum investment. Only upfront costs are equipment & fixtures and inventory. A stores return on capital is 20+% a year while rural RE would likely just keep up with inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1702702920293093563)  2023-09-15T15:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"My thoughts on $PARA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1702708121137709542)  2023-09-15T15:37Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@208190068CA @SupBagholder $DG has opened and plans to open 1K stores/year. It appears there is runway as shown in the attachment. A $WBA store does $300K in EBITDA but costs more to open and operate than a $DG. When $DG stops store growth its FCF will jump because most of its capex is for growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1702846989367459858)  2023-09-16T00:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"My thoughts on $DG. Happy to discuss this. I need to dial in on the valuation but I love the business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1704493838079791358)  2023-09-20T13:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"My thoughts on $DG. Happy to discuss"  
[X Link](https://x.com/cudoze38/status/1704557106999828686)  2023-09-20T18:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"My thoughts on $GTX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/cudoze38/status/1706001503838736842)  2023-09-24T17:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"1: understand what you own. 2: buy things less than theyre worth. 3: buy good cheap businesses. 4: limit downside dont max upside. 5: think independently. 6: look three years into the future. 7: no called strikes. wait for the pitch. [--] expanded: the most important rule imo. you can only know what a business is worth if you can project its cash flows. you can only project its cash flows if you understand it well. risk is minimized somewhere between six and nine holdings if you understand what you own. [--] expanded: classic graham. require a margin of safety. if you believe a business is worth x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1708321069860372963)  2023-10-01T03:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$PYPL $FISV and $FOUR all have spaghetti code. have done so many acquisitions and unable to integrate them. AI could be big help here. each engineer will be infinitely more productive and each company will improve significantly once they have efficient tech stacks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022409886030819489)  2026-02-13T20:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$GRBK presents a compelling investment opportunity built on a structurally advantaged business model that is difficult to replicate. As an integrated land developer and homebuilder $GRBK controls its entire supply chain from raw land acquisition to home closing. This vertical integration particularly its expertise in the DallasFort Worth market and its use of Texas-specific financing districts such as MUDs and PIDs allows it to generate the highest gross margins in the industry typically [--] to [--] percent above peers. While the market favors land-light competitors $GRBK land-heavy strategy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022744727913697480)  2026-02-14T18:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$PYPL is interesting. Did I think that month ago Yes and fortunately I didnt buy. Despite Adyen Stripe and Apple Pay this feels cheap with company retiring 17% of shares per year while growing both top and bottom line"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022106518909595738)  2026-02-13T00:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Never know with maxi AI view - but in most scenarios I see something between melting ice cube and incumbent. Yet other laggards like $FISV (yes its different business) trade at much higher multiple. New CEO has aligned comp and easy levers (Fastlane Honey tech stack)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IndLongShort/status/2022107663929421930)  2026-02-13T00:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"I also want to touch on this. I genuinely believe investment pitch centered around expected multiple expansion is bad pitch. That is not what I am saying. But company is either going to die - or it is mispriced. 6x EBITDA for payment processing That is crazy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IndLongShort/status/2022111152671797677)  2026-02-13T00:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Operating leverage economies of scale regulatory barriers etc. This is not 6x business. Come on - you can buy oil companies for that. Yes - they are being outcompeted on all fronts. Adyen has full tech stack devs love Stripe and Apple Pay is more convenient"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IndLongShort/status/2022111233865134515)  2026-02-13T00:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"But markets are dynamic. PayPal is not going to sit there. AI maxi view - $PYPL can integrate acquisitions and not have tech stack siloed. Then roll out Fastlane across ecosystem - which is more convenient than Apple Pay and has larger TAM because it works across Windows etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IndLongShort/status/2022111599742620009)  2026-02-13T00:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Stock crushed because mgt gave goals missed lowered guidance and fired CEO. Not a good look. But every segment is growing - most in mid-teens. Branded is growing LSD/MSD and yes - management said it might be flat to slightly down but who does not kitchen sink with new CEO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IndLongShort/status/2022112047954375057)  2026-02-13T00:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Also must touch on this. Stock was crushed last quarter because bad quarter largely confirmed Apple Pay is eating $PYPL lunch. Fortunately market is growing so competition is not as ruthless but still intense. Also never good to compete with $AAPL for obvious reasons"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IndLongShort/status/2022113052750184905)  2026-02-13T00:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"But Apple Pay is largely only relevant on iPhones which is market you do not want to lose but there are also laptops desktops and Android. So not end of world. They are also losing to Adyen and Stripe on tech but I do not think Wall Street really cares about Braintree"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IndLongShort/status/2022113460403023922)  2026-02-13T00:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"seems massively bullish for $GOOG - hyperscaler with own model and significant cash flow so fewer concerns about getting out over skis like Dario Dwarkesh asks Dario a fantastic question relating to how he is so bullish on AGI yet so conservative on data center build out - Dario has an amazing take on this: Dario Amodei details the staggering financial risk of the AI race explaining that if growth continues at 10x a https://t.co/Ed99X88zwS Dwarkesh asks Dario a fantastic question relating to how he is so bullish on AGI yet so conservative on data center build out - Dario has an amazing take"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022417562131402984)  2026-02-13T21:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@edels0n $AMZN is $2T. 10% of Anthropic at $380B = $38B. Thats 2% of Amazons value. Anthropic exposure isnt driving the stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IndLongShort/status/2022758167570964533)  2026-02-14T19:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$ASHGY is trading at two turns of EBITDA lower than $URI. Is going to list on the NYSE in March. Also lots of uncontested acquisitions happening while $HRI digests its H&E acquisition interesting stuff"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022404370135126369)  2026-02-13T20:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"a real benefit of $ADYEN is the dont do acquistions. accounting is less of a mess. also makes me like the mgt. really have done things from the ground up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022408106266022286)  2026-02-13T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@HayekAndKeynes pretty sure only [--] of the [---] down more than 7% are from earnings revisions. Something like that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IndLongShort/status/2022751282943910303)  2026-02-14T19:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@zephyr_z9 Claude code is life changing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IndLongShort/status/2022752657396416824)  2026-02-14T19:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@jukan05 dont see much more utlitiy from cowork than claude code"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IndLongShort/status/2022754873247228091)  2026-02-14T19:28Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@danielisdizzy yeah but what is the catalyst $GOOG was so cheap because of regulatory fears and search going away. so there was a catalyst when the company erased each short thesis one by one. dont see that same catalyst with $AMZN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IndLongShort/status/2022755169318887591)  2026-02-14T19:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@charliebilello be greedy when others are fearful. all in on melania coin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IndLongShort/status/2022758326279299440)  2026-02-14T19:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$GRBK presents a compelling investment opportunity built on a structurally advantaged business model that is difficult to replicate. As an integrated land developer and homebuilder $GRBK controls its entire supply chain from raw land acquisition to home closing. This vertical integration particularly its expertise in the DallasFort Worth market and its use of Texas-specific financing districts such as MUDs and PIDs allows it to generate the highest gross margins in the industry typically [--] to [--] percent above peers. While the market favors land-light competitors $GRBK land-heavy strategy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022744727913697480)  2026-02-14T18:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Think this helps psychologically on way down too. If you made mistake after doing tons of work there will be strong confirmation bias. If you invested before deep diligence and stock is down you will be much more aware of bear base Stanley Druckenmiller says Invest then investigate. I didnt know that much about Nvidia. I just knew AI. So we bought it then did the work. If I wait 2-3 months to analyze Ive missed the big part of the move. Then Im psychologically paralyzed. Its hard to buy a https://t.co/tXVjbtEC8B Stanley Druckenmiller says Invest then investigate. I didnt know that much about"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022430819663646744)  2026-02-13T22:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Stanley Druckenmiller says Invest then investigate. I didnt know that much about Nvidia. I just knew AI. So we bought it then did the work. If I wait 2-3 months to analyze Ive missed the big part of the move. Then Im psychologically paralyzed. Its hard to buy a stock at [---] when you saw it at [---] even if its going to [---]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022114745504215133 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022114745504215133"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022114745504215133)  2026-02-13T01:04Z 458.5K followers, 303K engagements


"interesting graphic showing AI Chip Sales"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022425296633479481)  2026-02-13T21:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"seems massively bullish for $GOOG - hyperscaler with own model and significant cash flow so fewer concerns about getting out over skis like Dario Dwarkesh asks Dario a fantastic question relating to how he is so bullish on AGI yet so conservative on data center build out - Dario has an amazing take on this: Dario Amodei details the staggering financial risk of the AI race explaining that if growth continues at 10x a https://t.co/Ed99X88zwS Dwarkesh asks Dario a fantastic question relating to how he is so bullish on AGI yet so conservative on data center build out - Dario has an amazing take"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022417562131402984)  2026-02-13T21:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Dwarkesh asks Dario a fantastic question relating to how he is so bullish on AGI yet so conservative on data center build out - Dario has an amazing take on this: Dario Amodei details the staggering financial risk of the AI race explaining that if growth continues at 10x a year a company could be looking at a $1 trillion revenue run rate by the end of [----]. He notes that to support this a firm might buy $5 trillion worth of compute. However he highlights a "ruinous" dilemma: if that revenue is even slightly lower than projected. specifically if it comes in at $800 billion instead of $1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022391029861622130)  2026-02-13T19:22Z 34.9K followers, 992.5K engagements


"only going up Datacentres now account for 7% of US electricity demand https://t.co/6AojVY5RvB Datacentres now account for 7% of US electricity demand https://t.co/6AojVY5RvB"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022415697838772506)  2026-02-13T21:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Datacentres now account for 7% of US electricity demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2021994671443226636)  2026-02-12T17:07Z [----] followers, 702.8K engagements


"$PYPL $FISV and $FOUR all have spaghetti code. have done so many acquisitions and unable to integrate them. AI could be big help here. each engineer will be infinitely more productive and each company will improve significantly once they have efficient tech stacks"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022409886030819489)  2026-02-13T20:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"a real benefit of $ADYEN is the dont do acquistions. accounting is less of a mess. also makes me like the mgt. really have done things from the ground up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022408106266022286)  2026-02-13T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$ASHGY is trading at two turns of EBITDA lower than $URI. Is going to list on the NYSE in March. Also lots of uncontested acquisitions happening while $HRI digests its H&E acquisition interesting stuff"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022404370135126369)  2026-02-13T20:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$PYPL is interesting. Did I think that month ago Yes and fortunately I didnt buy. Despite Adyen Stripe and Apple Pay this feels cheap with company retiring 17% of shares per year while growing both top and bottom line"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022106518909595738)  2026-02-13T00:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"So then it really comes down to Apple Pay. How bad is it Well it is pretty bad. Apple Pay is growing around 30% YoY and PayPal checkout is somehow still growing somewhere between negative 2% and 5% CAGR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022114028173373789)  2026-02-13T01:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Enough here. Lots more to say but I am excited about Fastlane AI increasing competitiveness because there are like five layups they just have not done that require competent engineers I guess they do not have expanding ads and two-sided network as moat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2022114877150781827)  2026-02-13T01:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"You get what you focus on. so focus on what you WANT. Not what you don't want"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2014136586875658700)  2026-01-22T00:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Few thoughts on retail investing since its popping up again on FinTwit: - As Ive said before I think its probably the lowest ROI activity you can do if youre trying to get rich. Focus on your career - You should index 90% of your money - You have zero edge day to day. Your advantages are that you have duration no mandate and nobody forcing you to sell - It follows that the fewer trades you do the better. The more trades you do the worse you will do - Process is the only thing that matters. How rigorous is your process How do you reflect on what worked and what didnt Do you even know why it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/2002016022371398110)  2025-12-19T13:59Z 173.1K followers, 379.3K engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing

@mrcudoze Avatar @mrcudoze Mr Cudoze

Mr Cudoze posts on X about ai, apple, $dg, $pypl the most. They currently have [--] followers and [--] posts still getting attention that total [-------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

Engagements: [-------] #

Engagements Line Chart

  • [--] Week [---------] +368,586%
  • [--] Month [---------] +428%
  • [--] Months [---------] +238,715,500%
  • [--] Year [---------] +238,715,600%

Mentions: [--] #

Mentions Line Chart

Followers: [--] #

Followers Line Chart

  • [--] Months [--] +31%
  • [--] Year [--] -42%

CreatorRank: [-------] #

CreatorRank Line Chart

Social Influence

Social category influence stocks finance technology brands cryptocurrencies exchanges

Social topic influence ai, apple, $dg, $pypl #1389, investment, company, $para, tech, business, acquisition #1195

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @supbagholder @joecarlsonshow @208190068ca @bohemianjake @valuedontlie @edels0n @hayekandkeynes @zephyrz9 @jukan05 @danielisdizzy @charliebilello @fei47551

Top assets mentioned Decentral Games (DG) PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) Paramount Global (PARA) Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Fiserv Inc (FISV) Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA) 4 (FOUR) Green Brick Partners, Inc (GRBK) United Rentals, Inc. (URI) Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) Walmart, Inc. (WMT) Garrett Motion Inc. Common Stock (GTX) Apple, Inc. (AAPL)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@valuedontlie Check out $PGNT. Tiny company and trades around 1x PE. The CEO is a Buffett fan (has even written a book on Buffett) and is trying to use $PGNT as a holding company. The CEO has some questionable characteristics so I've passed on this one but something worth checking out"
X Link 2023-09-14T22:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@joecarlsonshow Seeing these results makes me want to buy more $PARA"
X Link 2023-09-14T17:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@joecarlsonshow $PARA has (1) TV (2) streaming and (3) film. TV expects $4.8B of EBITDA in [----]. Comps trade at 8x EV/EBITDA giving PARA's TV business an EV of $38B. PARA's entire business has $14B in net debt. This gives TV a MCap of $24B. PARAs entire MCap is $9B"
X Link 2023-09-14T17:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"#PARA's income is significantly (but temporarily) decreased because of investments in the streaming businesses. TV is dying but is profitable and has a long enough runway. The film segment is also profitable. $PARA looks healthy IMO when broken into its individual businesses"
X Link 2023-09-14T17:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$PARA's TV Media revenues are declining at less than 5% annually. $PARA's decreased earnings are because of investment in the steaming business which has grown revenues at 40+% annually. Streaming losses are expected to peak in 2023"
X Link 2023-09-14T18:07Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@208190068CA @SupBagholder $DGs products cost 40% less than $WBAs. $DG has better unit economics. It costs $315000 to open a Dollar General and then the store makes $100000 per year. $DG can operate in towns that arent big enough to support a $WBA. $WBA is less resilient to $WMT & $AMZN"
X Link 2023-09-15T15:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@BohemianJake @SupBagholder Read the 10-K. Its all there. $DG leases their properties. Most are built-to-suit [--] year leases. WALT is [---] years"
X Link 2023-09-15T15:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@BohemianJake @SupBagholder It helps $DG growth. With a lease $DG can open a store with minimum investment. Only upfront costs are equipment & fixtures and inventory. A stores return on capital is 20+% a year while rural RE would likely just keep up with inflation"
X Link 2023-09-15T15:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"My thoughts on $PARA"
X Link 2023-09-15T15:37Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@208190068CA @SupBagholder $DG has opened and plans to open 1K stores/year. It appears there is runway as shown in the attachment. A $WBA store does $300K in EBITDA but costs more to open and operate than a $DG. When $DG stops store growth its FCF will jump because most of its capex is for growth"
X Link 2023-09-16T00:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"My thoughts on $DG. Happy to discuss this. I need to dial in on the valuation but I love the business"
X Link 2023-09-20T13:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"My thoughts on $DG. Happy to discuss"
X Link 2023-09-20T18:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"My thoughts on $GTX"
X Link 2023-09-24T17:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"1: understand what you own. 2: buy things less than theyre worth. 3: buy good cheap businesses. 4: limit downside dont max upside. 5: think independently. 6: look three years into the future. 7: no called strikes. wait for the pitch. [--] expanded: the most important rule imo. you can only know what a business is worth if you can project its cash flows. you can only project its cash flows if you understand it well. risk is minimized somewhere between six and nine holdings if you understand what you own. [--] expanded: classic graham. require a margin of safety. if you believe a business is worth x"
X Link 2023-10-01T03:20Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$PYPL $FISV and $FOUR all have spaghetti code. have done so many acquisitions and unable to integrate them. AI could be big help here. each engineer will be infinitely more productive and each company will improve significantly once they have efficient tech stacks"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$GRBK presents a compelling investment opportunity built on a structurally advantaged business model that is difficult to replicate. As an integrated land developer and homebuilder $GRBK controls its entire supply chain from raw land acquisition to home closing. This vertical integration particularly its expertise in the DallasFort Worth market and its use of Texas-specific financing districts such as MUDs and PIDs allows it to generate the highest gross margins in the industry typically [--] to [--] percent above peers. While the market favors land-light competitors $GRBK land-heavy strategy"
X Link 2026-02-14T18:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$PYPL is interesting. Did I think that month ago Yes and fortunately I didnt buy. Despite Adyen Stripe and Apple Pay this feels cheap with company retiring 17% of shares per year while growing both top and bottom line"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Never know with maxi AI view - but in most scenarios I see something between melting ice cube and incumbent. Yet other laggards like $FISV (yes its different business) trade at much higher multiple. New CEO has aligned comp and easy levers (Fastlane Honey tech stack)"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:36Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"I also want to touch on this. I genuinely believe investment pitch centered around expected multiple expansion is bad pitch. That is not what I am saying. But company is either going to die - or it is mispriced. 6x EBITDA for payment processing That is crazy"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:50Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Operating leverage economies of scale regulatory barriers etc. This is not 6x business. Come on - you can buy oil companies for that. Yes - they are being outcompeted on all fronts. Adyen has full tech stack devs love Stripe and Apple Pay is more convenient"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"But markets are dynamic. PayPal is not going to sit there. AI maxi view - $PYPL can integrate acquisitions and not have tech stack siloed. Then roll out Fastlane across ecosystem - which is more convenient than Apple Pay and has larger TAM because it works across Windows etc"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Stock crushed because mgt gave goals missed lowered guidance and fired CEO. Not a good look. But every segment is growing - most in mid-teens. Branded is growing LSD/MSD and yes - management said it might be flat to slightly down but who does not kitchen sink with new CEO"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Also must touch on this. Stock was crushed last quarter because bad quarter largely confirmed Apple Pay is eating $PYPL lunch. Fortunately market is growing so competition is not as ruthless but still intense. Also never good to compete with $AAPL for obvious reasons"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"But Apple Pay is largely only relevant on iPhones which is market you do not want to lose but there are also laptops desktops and Android. So not end of world. They are also losing to Adyen and Stripe on tech but I do not think Wall Street really cares about Braintree"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:59Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"seems massively bullish for $GOOG - hyperscaler with own model and significant cash flow so fewer concerns about getting out over skis like Dario Dwarkesh asks Dario a fantastic question relating to how he is so bullish on AGI yet so conservative on data center build out - Dario has an amazing take on this: Dario Amodei details the staggering financial risk of the AI race explaining that if growth continues at 10x a https://t.co/Ed99X88zwS Dwarkesh asks Dario a fantastic question relating to how he is so bullish on AGI yet so conservative on data center build out - Dario has an amazing take"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@edels0n $AMZN is $2T. 10% of Anthropic at $380B = $38B. Thats 2% of Amazons value. Anthropic exposure isnt driving the stock"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$ASHGY is trading at two turns of EBITDA lower than $URI. Is going to list on the NYSE in March. Also lots of uncontested acquisitions happening while $HRI digests its H&E acquisition interesting stuff"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"a real benefit of $ADYEN is the dont do acquistions. accounting is less of a mess. also makes me like the mgt. really have done things from the ground up"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@HayekAndKeynes pretty sure only [--] of the [---] down more than 7% are from earnings revisions. Something like that"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@zephyr_z9 Claude code is life changing"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@jukan05 dont see much more utlitiy from cowork than claude code"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:28Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@danielisdizzy yeah but what is the catalyst $GOOG was so cheap because of regulatory fears and search going away. so there was a catalyst when the company erased each short thesis one by one. dont see that same catalyst with $AMZN"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:29Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@charliebilello be greedy when others are fearful. all in on melania coin"
X Link 2026-02-14T19:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$GRBK presents a compelling investment opportunity built on a structurally advantaged business model that is difficult to replicate. As an integrated land developer and homebuilder $GRBK controls its entire supply chain from raw land acquisition to home closing. This vertical integration particularly its expertise in the DallasFort Worth market and its use of Texas-specific financing districts such as MUDs and PIDs allows it to generate the highest gross margins in the industry typically [--] to [--] percent above peers. While the market favors land-light competitors $GRBK land-heavy strategy"
X Link 2026-02-14T18:48Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Think this helps psychologically on way down too. If you made mistake after doing tons of work there will be strong confirmation bias. If you invested before deep diligence and stock is down you will be much more aware of bear base Stanley Druckenmiller says Invest then investigate. I didnt know that much about Nvidia. I just knew AI. So we bought it then did the work. If I wait 2-3 months to analyze Ive missed the big part of the move. Then Im psychologically paralyzed. Its hard to buy a https://t.co/tXVjbtEC8B Stanley Druckenmiller says Invest then investigate. I didnt know that much about"
X Link 2026-02-13T22:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Stanley Druckenmiller says Invest then investigate. I didnt know that much about Nvidia. I just knew AI. So we bought it then did the work. If I wait 2-3 months to analyze Ive missed the big part of the move. Then Im psychologically paralyzed. Its hard to buy a stock at [---] when you saw it at [---] even if its going to [---]. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022114745504215133 https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2022114745504215133"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:04Z 458.5K followers, 303K engagements

"interesting graphic showing AI Chip Sales"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:39Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"seems massively bullish for $GOOG - hyperscaler with own model and significant cash flow so fewer concerns about getting out over skis like Dario Dwarkesh asks Dario a fantastic question relating to how he is so bullish on AGI yet so conservative on data center build out - Dario has an amazing take on this: Dario Amodei details the staggering financial risk of the AI race explaining that if growth continues at 10x a https://t.co/Ed99X88zwS Dwarkesh asks Dario a fantastic question relating to how he is so bullish on AGI yet so conservative on data center build out - Dario has an amazing take"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Dwarkesh asks Dario a fantastic question relating to how he is so bullish on AGI yet so conservative on data center build out - Dario has an amazing take on this: Dario Amodei details the staggering financial risk of the AI race explaining that if growth continues at 10x a year a company could be looking at a $1 trillion revenue run rate by the end of [----]. He notes that to support this a firm might buy $5 trillion worth of compute. However he highlights a "ruinous" dilemma: if that revenue is even slightly lower than projected. specifically if it comes in at $800 billion instead of $1"
X Link 2026-02-13T19:22Z 34.9K followers, 992.5K engagements

"only going up Datacentres now account for 7% of US electricity demand https://t.co/6AojVY5RvB Datacentres now account for 7% of US electricity demand https://t.co/6AojVY5RvB"
X Link 2026-02-13T21:00Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Datacentres now account for 7% of US electricity demand"
X Link 2026-02-12T17:07Z [----] followers, 702.8K engagements

"$PYPL $FISV and $FOUR all have spaghetti code. have done so many acquisitions and unable to integrate them. AI could be big help here. each engineer will be infinitely more productive and each company will improve significantly once they have efficient tech stacks"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"a real benefit of $ADYEN is the dont do acquistions. accounting is less of a mess. also makes me like the mgt. really have done things from the ground up"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$ASHGY is trading at two turns of EBITDA lower than $URI. Is going to list on the NYSE in March. Also lots of uncontested acquisitions happening while $HRI digests its H&E acquisition interesting stuff"
X Link 2026-02-13T20:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$PYPL is interesting. Did I think that month ago Yes and fortunately I didnt buy. Despite Adyen Stripe and Apple Pay this feels cheap with company retiring 17% of shares per year while growing both top and bottom line"
X Link 2026-02-13T00:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"So then it really comes down to Apple Pay. How bad is it Well it is pretty bad. Apple Pay is growing around 30% YoY and PayPal checkout is somehow still growing somewhere between negative 2% and 5% CAGR"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Enough here. Lots more to say but I am excited about Fastlane AI increasing competitiveness because there are like five layups they just have not done that require competent engineers I guess they do not have expanding ads and two-sided network as moat"
X Link 2026-02-13T01:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"You get what you focus on. so focus on what you WANT. Not what you don't want"
X Link 2026-01-22T00:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Few thoughts on retail investing since its popping up again on FinTwit: - As Ive said before I think its probably the lowest ROI activity you can do if youre trying to get rich. Focus on your career - You should index 90% of your money - You have zero edge day to day. Your advantages are that you have duration no mandate and nobody forcing you to sell - It follows that the fewer trades you do the better. The more trades you do the worse you will do - Process is the only thing that matters. How rigorous is your process How do you reflect on what worked and what didnt Do you even know why it"
X Link 2025-12-19T13:59Z 173.1K followers, 379.3K engagements

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creator/twitter::IndLongShort
/creator/twitter::IndLongShort