# ![@Kalypsus_ Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1879221047389827072.png) @Kalypsus_ Kalypsus

Kalypsus posts on X about inflation, ai, private equity, money the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [----] posts still getting attention that total [------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [------] [#](/creator/twitter::1879221047389827072/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1879221047389827072/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-------] +510%
- [--] Month [-------] +452%
- [--] Months [---------] +848%
- [--] Year [---------] +657,634%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1879221047389827072/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1879221047389827072/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Week [--] -28%
- [--] Month [---] +3%
- [--] Months [-----] +227%
- [--] Year [-----] +15,422%

### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1879221047389827072/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1879221047389827072/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +9.30%
- [--] Month [-----] +24%
- [--] Months [-----] +439%
- [--] Year [-----] +150,850%

### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1879221047389827072/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1879221047389827072/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [countries](/list/countries)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [agencies](/list/agencies)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  [social networks](/list/social-networks) 

**Social topic influence**
[inflation](/topic/inflation) #2892, [ai](/topic/ai), [private equity](/topic/private-equity) #19, [money](/topic/money), [china](/topic/china), [debt](/topic/debt) #936, [tariffs](/topic/tariffs), [investment](/topic/investment), [fed](/topic/fed), [social security](/topic/social-security)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@boringbiz](/creator/undefined) [@stealthqe4](/creator/undefined) [@zerohedge](/creator/undefined) [@kobeissiletter](/creator/undefined) [@junkbondinvest](/creator/undefined) [@macroedgeres](/creator/undefined) [@unusualwhales](/creator/undefined) [@geigercapital](/creator/undefined) [@leylakuni](/creator/undefined) [@restructuring](/creator/undefined) [@1coastaljournal](/creator/undefined) [@yieldsearcher](/creator/undefined) [@charliebilello](/creator/undefined) [@junkbondanalyst](/creator/undefined) [@financelancelot](/creator/undefined) [@donmiami3](/creator/undefined) [@litcapital](/creator/undefined) [@revcap](/creator/undefined) [@bobeunlimited](/creator/undefined) [@realjohngaltfla](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Bitcoin (BTC)](/topic/bitcoin) [Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)](/topic/$googl) [Fartcoin (FARTCOIN)](/topic/fartcoin) [Robinhood Markets, Inc.  (HOOD)](/topic/$hood) [Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)](/topic/microsoft)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"New customers primarily come from stealing from competitors. In recent years telecommunications giants have realized this and shifted to a new frontier"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1882263329600942428)  2025-01-23T03:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Fiber has become one of the hottest targets for investors like corporates and PE funds. Some notable fiber acquisitions in [----] include Verizon acquiring Frontier ($20Bn) and Bell Canada acquiring Ziply Fiber ($5Bn)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1882264245926232331)  2025-01-23T03:09Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"🚨 🚨 🚨 for US retailers: Despite economic uncertainty and high interest rates consumers still intend spend more on leisure. However the discretionary clothing & apparel category has taken a clear hit. Says a lot about post-Covid consumer preferences"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1882566931607363725)  2025-01-23T23:11Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"NVIDIA's market meltdown is just the icing on the cake (🧵)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1884024431351324979)  2025-01-27T23:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"NVIDIA's data center revenue has grown 8x since [----] and driven its market cap to $2.9 TRILLION dollars thanks to the AI craze"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1884024438255194186)  2025-01-27T23:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"BUT DeepSeek costs a fraction of leading LLMs like ChatGPT and Gemini with comparable results The AI driven demand thesis faces a major speedbump (or existential threat)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1884024447923114396)  2025-01-27T23:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Energy stocks are cratering over the AI demand question: - Bloom Energy (NYSE:BE): -24.79% - Constellation Energy Corp (NASDAQ: CEG): -20.85% - Vistra Corp (NYSE:VST): -28.28% Is this a market overreaction or more to come"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1884024452524171635)  2025-01-27T23:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"The cruise line industry has been on a tear this year: - Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE: RCL): +108.2% - Viking Holdings (NYSE: VIK): +88.0% - Carnival Corp (NYSE: CCL): +67.8% What is driving these gains"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1884377256992104773)  2025-01-28T23:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"According to Deloitte despite recent economic uncertainty consumer health remains resilient"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1884377259013730459)  2025-01-28T23:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@unusual_whales Credit card delinquencies are also at their highest rate since the Financial Crisis - is a market correction on the way"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1894371963700740186)  2025-02-25T13:00Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"In the 1970s the U.S. was dependent on foreign oil. The country consumed more energy than it produced and as a result had to import fuel. The primary source was crude oil from the Middle East and Venezuela In [----] in response to American foreign policy in the Middle East Arab OPEC members launched an oil embargo against the U.S. and other countries. By [----] oil prices tripled from $3 per barrel to $12. In [----] the Iranian Revolution further spiked prices The oil shocks of the 1970s were stark warnings of the risks of foreign energy dependence. Calls grew for the U.S. to insulate itself from"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1895577709922722258)  2025-02-28T20:51Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"In the 1800s the coal mines of Pennsylvania and crude oil of the Appalachian Basin powered U.S. energy production. During the 20th century advances in natural gas pipeline technology led to widespread adoption Coal crude oil and natural gas resources allowed the U.S. to produce most of the energy it consumed until the 1950s. Population growth automobile adoption and industrialization eventually led to a consumption boom. As energy demand exceeded supply the U.S. grew its oil imports. Worries grew as domestic oil and gas production slowed. However the U.S. energy industry would soon be"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1895577715828314315)  2025-02-28T20:52Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"1996: A small semiconductor company teeters on the brink of collapse. Facing stalling growth the CEO lays off 50% of employees and gambles dwindling resources on a new product design. Failure is weeks away when the company's revolutionary GPU launches in [----] 2025: That same company now powers the AI revolution. Customers fight over their chips and sales have soared 1000% in the past three years. Here is NVIDIA's rise from struggling startup to AI titan in [--] charts:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1896357004983074955)  2025-03-03T00:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"1 AI investment has grown exponentially since [----] driving massive demand for GPUs specialized chips necessary for AI's complex calculations and training"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1896357007738978395)  2025-03-03T00:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"2 NVIDIA's CUDA software is the secret weapon. This programming platform allows customers to utilize GPU for advanced tasks from scientific research to video editing to AI With widespread industry adoption of CUDA AI companies are reliant on NVIDIA chips. This creates a strong moat for NVIDIA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1896357011370971202)  2025-03-03T00:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"3 NVIDIA isn't the only AI winner: 📈 Utility companies like Vistra ($VST) and GE Vernova ($GEV) have more than doubled over the past year as AI data centers drive unprecedented power demands 📈 Communication stocks are benefiting too. Telecom companies are striking AI partnerships to provide advanced data services like fiber breathing new life into this recently challenged sector"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1896357013963079705)  2025-03-03T00:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@egregious_poop @TheWealthMill @zerohedge The delinquency rate as of December (latest data point) remains at decade high despite the slight decrease over the last few quarters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1896688330441679082)  2025-03-03T22:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@unusual_whales Seems like a much needed correction. Dont know many stocks that can sustainably increase 10x in a few years despite its insane revenue growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1896946204090728674)  2025-03-04T15:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@BoringBiz_ Interesting to see the impact of the massive inflows of capital in PE over the last few decades - which is now also playing out in private credit Acquisition multiples have spiked up due to all the dry powder killing IRR and making the business much more challenging"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1899542286641385536)  2025-03-11T19:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Capital has flooded into private equity over the last several decades which has put clear pressure on returns More competition chasing the same deals has lead to higher entry multiples which results in lower IRR upon exit #PrivateEquity #PrivateCredit"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1899650496727495151)  2025-03-12T02:35Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@unusual_whales There is a clear weakness in payrolls - since [----] has trended well below 200K. This is a clear recessionary signal"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1900187595608379481)  2025-03-13T14:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@unusual_whales Signs flashing red for economy - change in nonfarm payrolls has been trending down meaningfully"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1900273646309949537)  2025-03-13T19:51Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Highlights of the Feds March [----] meeting: - Fed is increasing market liquidity by reducing treasury roll offs (aka easier monetary policy without cutting rates) - The Fed says economy is highly uncertain (Duh) - Tariffs are going to slightly impact inflation and growth (Duh)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1903479363938463906)  2025-03-22T16:10Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"3/24 WEEKLY TEAR SHEET: The biggest items happening on Wall Street: - The Fed Navigating a Bumpy Road - Trump's Tariff Crusade - The US Economic Juggernaut is Slowing 🧵(1/4)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1904343826753564737)  2025-03-25T01:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting The Fed held the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 18-19 The Fed Funds Rate was held at 4.5%. Two more rate cuts are projected for later this year The Fed reduced the monthly cap on treasury redemptions the reduction in US treasuries owned by the Fed from $25Bn to $5B - looser monetary conditions by increasing US treasury demand (more Fed purchases) reducing higher rate pressure The Fed slightly increased inflation expectations and reduced growth projections due to US tariffs and elevated global uncertainty 🧵(2/4)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1904343829504758030)  2025-03-25T01:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Trump Tariff Policy Since inauguration President Trump has imposed tariffs on trading partners including Mexico Canada China and the European Union The administration announced that on April 2nd it plans to impose reciprocal tariffs globally with levels based on each countrys tariffs imposed on US goods - On March 24th it was announced that tariffs would be more limited in scope with several countries receiving exceptions - It is now expected that tariffs will focus on the Dirty [--] the 15% of with persistent trade imbalances with the US Long term tariff policy and trade landscape remain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1904343833237737655)  2025-03-25T01:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"State of the Economy The economy has held up well over the last few years despite recession predictions Recent data releases have flashed warning signs of a slowdown Sticky inflation reduced US immigration and DOGE efforts to reduce government spending are potential growth headwinds 🧵(4/4)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1904343836953924043)  2025-03-25T01:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@charliebilello Mortgage rates have doubled since COVID which has made existing homeowners on the ultralow 3%-4% mortgages much more unwilling to sell"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1904962160725200916)  2025-03-26T18:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"The Fed just announced they are reducing monthly treasury redemptions from $25Bn to $5Bn - aka slowing the balance sheet unwind. They cant keep unwinding at this rate since it puts upward pressure on rates - and theyre fearful of the fragility of US consumers / tipping into a recession"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1905661878128275610)  2025-03-28T16:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Is private equity's golden age dead and gone The explosion of capital into private equity has increased competition among PE firms for deals More competition to buy a company = higher purchase price Higher purchase price = lower returns Hence PE multiples have converged with publicly traded equities (which return 7% on average). The golden age of 20%+ IRRs appears to be long gone"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1906131175980028156)  2025-03-29T23:47Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@unusual_whales True and two pillars are already declining: gov spending decreasing from Trump/DOGE and the AI bubble losing steam. On spending of the rich Bain & Co found that luxury spending declined for the first time since Covid in [----] which is a bad sign for the third pillar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1907453290180161694)  2025-04-02T15:21Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@zerohedge The question on tariffs is what is actually implemented in the long term. The reciprocal tariffs won't be implemented until April [--] - giving countries room to negotiate (for example lower tariffs in exchange for lowering their own tariffs)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1907852859942527019)  2025-04-03T17:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"The growth of uptier transactions over the last few years has reduced chapter [--] bankruptcies and true restructurings Uptiering deals give companies longer runway through extending maturities and providing new money to kick the can down the road with operational / financial difficulties"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1908571315335819766)  2025-04-05T17:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@unusual_whales In [----] Chinese exports to the US totaled $436Bn out of a total of $3.4 trillion (13%). Interesting to see if this is enough leverage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1909978124281880746)  2025-04-09T14:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"In [----] Chinese exports to the US totaled $436Bn out of a total of $3.4 trillion (13%). Will this give the US enough leverage in potential trade negotiations"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1909986903358644643)  2025-04-09T15:08Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"China's capital markets (stocks and debt) are extremely underdeveloped. Chinese citizens invest their wealth in real estate given the poor returns in the Chinese stock market. For debt financing bank loans are by far the most common financing source for companies (unlike the massive bond market in the US) which is closely controlled by the government"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1913685379649073293)  2025-04-19T20:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@StockMKTNewz AI value is driven by the underlying data. AI models connected to broader ecosystems (Grok / X Gemini / Google Llama / Meta) have a huge advantage against standalone AI platforms like ChatGPT Claude and Perplexity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1914442569733247460)  2025-04-21T22:14Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"What Happens When a Company Could Go Bankrupt - Financial Restructuring Primer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1915094880977617140)  2025-04-23T17:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"US consumer strength is a major concern given the current global headwinds However debt service payments show that US consumers are holding up well and in better shape than during the previous recession"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1917204313635709375)  2025-04-29T13:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Private equity has been hammered by the post-covid market hangover. Exits and distributions to LPs are at years-long lows. Higher interest rates and reset in investor sentiment has crushed acquisitions. Its no longer a sellers market or PE paradise:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1919926567297221098)  2025-05-07T01:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"US tariffs have exposed Chinas imbalanced economy: 1) Chinas reliance on exports makes it dependent on overseas sales for growth 2) Tariffs are crushing demand for Chinese imports thereby weakening GDP growth 3) In long run tariffs and decoupling make firms weary of reliance on China for supply chains eroding long term investment in the country"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1920267921772736594)  2025-05-08T00:02Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Higher interest rates are causing lower M&A activity which has hampered the private equity industry:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1921596351764189676)  2025-05-11T16:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@StealthQE4 China is in a bad spot Deflation is starting to set in from loss of US imports. They had to cut rates and lower reserves last week. Theyll require more stimulus if tariffs remain"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1921674575617675664)  2025-05-11T21:11Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"The US China tariff deal comes amid a concerning trend in China deflation. Chinese CPI has fallen for three months straight. Deflation wreaks havoc by reducing incentives to spend (consumers wait for prices to drop more) cratering an economy. Strong incentive to reach a deal:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1921908820374130851)  2025-05-12T12:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@CGasparino The tariff deal helps the US more than China. China has much deeper economic issues very weak consumption. Deflation is starting to kick in:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1921981428633321559)  2025-05-12T17:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@business @DonMiami3 China is in a very bad spot. Their economy is so dependent on foreign exports that the tariff shock is causing deflation:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1921982217061802478)  2025-05-12T17:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@itsmeagain4126 @business @DonMiami3 Chinese GDP growth is driven by imports because they manufacture much more than the Chinese citizens consume (so have to import to other countries): The US is service based and that is much less dependent on demand of foreign countries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1922110250531901801)  2025-05-13T02:02Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"The risk of reigniting inflation is worse for the Fed than keeping rates higher for longer. The economy is cooling but still solid (quarterly GDP growth was 2-3.0% the last few quarters hiring is ok albeit slower). If they cut too early the economy could easily overheat again and drive more inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1922286259243827559)  2025-05-13T13:42Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Private equity investing focuses on buying stable businesses that can handle high leverage and improving them resulting in high returns through operational improvement and leverage Primer on Private Equity Investing:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1923494812470136901)  2025-05-16T21:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Private equity seeks out predictable cash generating businesses and aims to scale and grow margins through active business management Primer on private equity investing:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1923703032165879986)  2025-05-17T11:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The main driver of skyrocketing housing prices is lack of supply. Higher mortgage rates have made existing owners (on lower mortgages) unwilling to sell As a result US housing inventory is at decade lows:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1924272559870063077)  2025-05-19T01:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Askeladd137 @DonMiami3 Would need a combo of spending cuts + growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1924274071128146211)  2025-05-19T01:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@RampCapitalLLC Housing prices are already crazy enough from high mortgage rates = low inventory:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1924466263125819393)  2025-05-19T14:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@unusual_whales The economy is strong which actually bad for consumers in certain ways Because the economy is somewhat hot the Fed is still worried about inflation and cannot lower rates much hampering consumers in areas like mortgages car loans etc"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1924547286152999142)  2025-05-19T19:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@bryanrbeal Credit card delinquencies have doubled since 2022:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1925325118244294746)  2025-05-21T22:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@NickTimiraos Its pretty shocking when you look at the trend from the [----] surplus to now:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1925359376711266525)  2025-05-22T01:13Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@GuyTalksFinance You could say the same thing about investing in internet stocks in the late 90s Enron before it crashed or the housing market before the financial crisis - not super compelling argument"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1926390384151740923)  2025-05-24T21:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@PeterSchiff @elonmusk @DOGE The larges drivers are Medicare and Social Security. Both are untenable and need to be restructured to reduce deficits everything else is on the margin:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1926700208630501745)  2025-05-25T18:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@StealthQE4 Not surprising but they will ultimately pass it A tax increase (by not extending existing tax cuts) would materially hamper economic growth which neither side wants given current economic uncertainty"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1927136440258826545)  2025-05-26T22:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@unusual_whales Snowballing US debt and interest means more government spending on programs like blanket loan forgiveness is untenable:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1927374568668250235)  2025-05-27T14:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge This is a great example of why countries like US and EU dislike trading with China. China pumps subsidies into select industries like EVs and solar massively over-produces and then dumps the excess product into global markets at the expense of every elses domestic industries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1927516485540253813)  2025-05-28T00:05Z [---] followers, 49.5K engagements


"Investment returns are driven by an investor's position in the capital structure. Lower priority increases risk which determines required return or cost of capital Capital Structure Overview:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1928609984364909019)  2025-05-31T00:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"1Q25 was the weakest quarter for private equity exits in years as strategic buyers remain on the sidelines PEs exit struggle:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1928881853701730507)  2025-05-31T18:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@USRoute41 One offsetting effect is higher mortgage rates have kept existing homeowners (on lower 3-4% mortgages) from wanting to sell Lower inventory has helped keep prices high:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1929243603903168939)  2025-06-01T18:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@zerohedge Inflation is still too high and the economy is too strong to cut rates. The risk of reigniting inflation is much worse than a continued steady slowdown"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1929330991883026754)  2025-06-02T00:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@zerohedge The issue is not growth its reducing the deficits / snowballing debt service. The US needs to cut entitlement programs to actually fix the issue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1929567355929006215)  2025-06-02T15:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"I mean that the markets are more worried about the growing deficits from entitlement spending than the magnitude of 2Q25 GDP growth According to Cato Institute Medicaid and Social Security are going to grow 50% over ten years. You cant outgrow that you need to restructure the entitlements"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1929623018156052570)  2025-06-02T19:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The US housing market is clearly weakening amid higher interest rates. As home sellers are growing home buyers are stagnant / declining Strong potential for a drop in housing prices:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1929981313131454539)  2025-06-03T19:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@bankertobuilder The Holy Trinity: Billboards Vending Machines and ATMs Infinite flywheel of value / 10x generational wealth / glitch in the matrix"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1929995481889026420)  2025-06-03T20:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@StealthQE4 Europe is at a different stage than the US. Both their GDP growth and inflation are lower so they have more room to cut rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1930637304193753583)  2025-06-05T14:46Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The Feds job is increasingly difficult: i) Weakening labor market supports cutting rates ii) But inflation is still above 2.0% target and tariffs risk further price increases More inflation would be worse for the economy than slower growth so the Fed is unlikely to cut soon"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1930695195445870937)  2025-06-05T18:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Private equity's magic formula is cracking under a volatile economy and higher rates. Distributions are lagging and fundraising has never been harder 🔗Full writeup below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1931369792637747663)  2025-06-07T15:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Interest rates should fall with the slowing economy but out-of-control US deficits have significantly grown the federal debt making investors nervous. This reduces demand for treasuries and keeps rates high The snowballing deficit spending:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1931851497639481689)  2025-06-08T23:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"In the trade war with the US China's glaring weakness is its ongoing deflationary spiral. CPI and PPI are both falling A deal should be reached as China desperately needs a consumption boost:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1932232575923466345)  2025-06-10T00:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge Chinas achilles heal is that it needs US consumption for its economy to function Its now facing severe deflation:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1932243030838530176)  2025-06-10T01:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@unusual_whales Mortgage rates have been killing inventory (nobody wants to sell and lose lower mortgage) which keeps prices high:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1932463815570133257)  2025-06-10T15:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mayhem4Markets Buying US debt or holding US dollars is getting riskier with the massive deficits. The US government will eventually have to either i) make massive spending cuts and restructure or ii) print more money to repay the debt It's going to do the latter"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1932490581378236888)  2025-06-10T17:30Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"The markets are growing increasingly uneasy about debt-fueled government spending. The US now spends more on interest expense than national defense or healthcare programs. 🔗Full writeup below"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1933968102607159697)  2025-06-14T19:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge Bitcoins value is shifting from speculation vehicle to an actual store of value. Investors are finally realizing that governments will print and inflate to no end. The only solution is a non-government fiat solution like bitcoin or gold"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1934958205311893598)  2025-06-17T12:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MacroEdgeRes Unfettered globalized trade has big drawbacks look at the semiconductor industry. The US is now reliant on a tiny island (Taiwan) right next to China for chips that power all advanced machinery including infrastructure AI and weapons. That's a massive vulnerability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1935126883907367388)  2025-06-18T00:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge Not sure if prices are going to drop that much from all-time highs. Housing inventory is at decades low because of the high mortgage rates. (Nobody wants to sell). That will surely offset some of the weakening demand"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1935321875917259209)  2025-06-18T13:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@GayBearRes Guess whats driving the US toward insolvency (these growing entitlement programs):"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1935513586971066474)  2025-06-19T01:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Interest rates are at decades high but the Fed still cant cut: [--] Inflation is too high [--] Tariffs + oil shocks risk even higher prices [--] Unemployment is at historically reasonable levels There is no reason to start cutting rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1935525836163043486)  2025-06-19T02:31Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@zerohedge Chinas entire economy is pumped up with subsidies. They over-manufacture then dump the excess product around the globe at the expense of every other countrys domestic industries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1935533806271996074)  2025-06-19T03:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"China continues to flood the world with exports. The Chinese model of mass production and dumping is growing. Exports are way up since [----] while imports are stagnant. No end in sight for the trade war:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1935676392013705712)  2025-06-19T12:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The US China trade war has no hope for resolution. The US wants less Chinese exports but China is too dependent on manufacturing to strike a deal China's manufacturing economy:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1935834600372346982)  2025-06-19T22:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@tylerlund2024 @krassenstein The problem with the entitlement programs are they will continue to balloon as the population ages. If you dont restructure they will be insolvent in 2030s so they clearly are the primary issue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1936106689024913492)  2025-06-20T16:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@tylerlund2024 @krassenstein That sounds a lot like restructuring entitlements"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1936108332487721129)  2025-06-20T17:06Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@FirstSquawk Interest expense is nearly triple where it was in [----]. More borrowing causes to higher interest payments which drives more borrowing to pay it - a debt spiral:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1936484218386968874)  2025-06-21T17:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Iran could retaliate by blocking the Straight of Hormuz (handles 20% of global oil) to spike prices But this would disproportionally impact China and Asian markets over the US and Europe:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1936829340320211094)  2025-06-22T16:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@HayekAndKeynes Chinas equity market is so undeveloped + government fingerprints are all over it. Chinese Citizens park their wealth in real estate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1936945684764033164)  2025-06-23T00:33Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@VladTheInflator Impossible to balance the budget because of constantly increasing Social Security and Medicare costs (set in law) Until we restructure them the massive deficits and borrowing will continue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1937231546424946733)  2025-06-23T19:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@HayekAndKeynes Markets are pricing in the pile of social security and Medicare costs the US owes and snowballing interest expenses We will have to inflate or restructure eventually"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1937239598356123833)  2025-06-23T20:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The private equity model has remained remarkably similar over the past decade. Find a boring steady business buy it for 10x and lever it up 6x Leverage has ticked down toward 5x recently but EV multiples have kept steady:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1937645228112093491)  2025-06-24T22:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@dgsommersmkts The US fiscal trajectory really strengthens the case for bitcoin. As we down the debt service spiral its very clear the Fed will inflate to repay the mountain of debt. Budget talks this year showed theres no appetite for meaningful cuts to spending"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1937698830771773891)  2025-06-25T02:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@RESightsbyME @MacroEdgeRes @MacroEdgeVision What about total housing inventory Interesting that we have the highest amount of new home sales since '07 yet home prices are generally at record highs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1937908980095021332)  2025-06-25T16:21Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@sundayscampump @StealthQE4 Why would there be deflation coming Socialist programs cost more money = more deficits = inflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1938010180089692554)  2025-06-25T23:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Private equity and credit are praying for M&A. Slow M&A means less PE exits and harder to repay private credit lenders. This is driving lower distributions to LPs making fundraising harder. And the backlog is building:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1938026721812627933)  2025-06-26T00:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge That's a juicy yield. xAI raised a $6Bn Series C round in December [----] so at least they can tell themselves they have some equity below them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1938049053104722073)  2025-06-26T01:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The worst part of investment banking is your coworkers. I once had to deliver a printed deck to MDs apt at 4AM (didnt like reading pdfs) Nobody covers for you for weddings birthdays etc. So you end up missing for important work (making slides) so MD can justify their fee"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1938342677889634398)  2025-06-26T21:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@StealthQE4 Because endless deficit spending ultimately leads to money printing to repay the mountain of debt we cant afford. Thats why investors are also rotating to gold and bitcoin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1938343203649778094)  2025-06-26T21:06Z [---] followers, 16.1K engagements


"@TheIcahnist Digital Minimalism by Cal Newport eye-opening read about how our phones are rewiring our brains"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1938435120995696730)  2025-06-27T03:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MacroEdgeRes Rates get lowered = inflation heats up again = rates get jacked up = economic activity stalls A beautiful case of stagflation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1938636255270429074)  2025-06-27T16:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"FREE POST 📌Is Globalization Dying For decades the U.S. embraced the efficiencies of offshoring manufacturing to China. But today discussions revolve around tariffs reshoring and dismantling global supply chains. Link below👇"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1938695823270781122)  2025-06-27T20:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@alt_w_v_g Did you offer him your wife if he throws you a deal (think Sage Kelly)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1938716404699799943)  2025-06-27T21:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@zerohedge This is all noise. The deficits are being driven by ballooning social security and Medicaid costs. As long as we put off restructuring them the deficits will continue to grow"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1939457624724177363)  2025-06-29T22:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge Chinas entire economy is fake. The government pumps capital into selected industry for growth then dumps the products globally for cheap. Meanwhile their citizens remain poor since their savings are used to subsidize this growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1939504158429577380)  2025-06-30T02:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MishGEA @tyillc @jlounsbury59 @USRoute41 @FM_NoAlgos @mtmalinen @jimiuorio @JonFraserTF @GratkeWealth @dgsommersmkts JPow has to choose between protecting employment or fighting inflation. Clearly the economy is weakening but inflation was so toxic in [----] that I expect he will hold rates as long as they can"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1940457755254611977)  2025-07-02T17:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The state of U.S. Government spending: Entitlements (Social Security + Medicare) are by far the largest spending item. We spend more on interest than Defense or Health Programs. Nobody is serious about cutting anything"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1940569335279636870)  2025-07-03T00:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MacroEdgeRes This makes the case harder for the Fed to cut. The labor market remains resilient while inflation is still too high:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1940766752713117804)  2025-07-03T13:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@SMB_Attorney That's what my MD says as he sends a hefty round of comments ahead of the 4th of July weekend"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1940831311280984180)  2025-07-03T17:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@GuyTalksFinance The only fix to the US fiscal issues is to restructure Medicare and Social Security. Those two programs alone are 35% of annual government spending:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1941477889972764675)  2025-07-05T12:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The Big Beautiful Bills hefty cost over $3 trillion over 10-Yr period is nearly all driven by permanent extension of existing tax rates. The largest offset is means testing for Medicaid which will save $1 trillion"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1941514305180233854)  2025-07-05T15:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited You forgot to mention they are going through significant bouts of deflation which they are struggling to reverse and Chinese consumers remain in the toilet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1941557212578759147)  2025-07-05T17:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Private equity is getting killed in the new world of higher rates less M&A and volatility. LPs are adjusting. More plan to allocate to Private Credit and Secondaries and less in Private Equity and Real Estate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1941876408805957733)  2025-07-06T15:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@junkbondinvest The LPs who flooded private equity with capital are now dumping it into private credit and secondaries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1942221849074803180)  2025-07-07T13:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The current state of U.S. Government spending: Social Security + Medicare are 35% of all spending. We now spend more on Interest than Defense or Health programs. Nobody wants to cut anything"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1942345883594461455)  2025-07-07T22:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@StealthQE4 The tax cuts are expensive but lots of critics conveniently ignore the elephant in the room. Entitlement programs (Social Security + Medicare) cost $3 trillion per year. The US will go bankrupt if they are not restructured. At least the bill started by means-testing Medicaid"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1942386125261152766)  2025-07-08T00:51Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"The Big Beautiful Bill ignores the elephant in the room. Entitlement programs (Social Security + Medicare) cost $3 trillion per year. Other spending cuts are irrelevant the US will go broke if entitlements are not restructured"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1942408242706985407)  2025-07-08T02:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@unusual_whales This is why restructuring entitlements is absolutely necessary. We already spend $3 trillion a year on Medicare and Social Security and they will keep growing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1942588008592462204)  2025-07-08T14:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge China is in a deflationary cycle and needs foreign demand to dump all the overcapacity from state subsidized manufacturing. Hence why Trump and Bessent are using tariffs to pressure them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1942763362426704216)  2025-07-09T01:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@junkbondinvest Just wait until the illiquidity spreads to all the Wall Street banks that lend against private credit loan portfolios 💀"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1943026575173104036)  2025-07-09T19:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"New Post Jerome Powell and the Fed are trapped between sticky inflation and a tipping economy. The markets are begging for cuts. The data says otherwise: https://newsletter.kalypsus.com/p/no-good-options-powell-s-interest-rate-crisis https://newsletter.kalypsus.com/p/no-good-options-powell-s-interest-rate-crisis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1943030978391478584)  2025-07-09T19:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"The private equity slowdown has impacted LPs across private markets driving a rush for liquidity. As a result secondaries volumes have reached record levels in both Private Equity and Credit:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1943446351221531070)  2025-07-10T23:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@StealthQE4 The US already can't afford our interest expense just wait until we have to start refinancing at 4.5%-5%:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1943703767892762974)  2025-07-11T16:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@cc5alive The wealth gap has grown because of the Fed's quantitative easing and easy money policies over the last decade. All that printed money has inflated value for asset owners (stocks real estate) while raising living costs for the non-asset owners (the working class)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1943711876212199679)  2025-07-11T16:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Powell and the Fed are in a tough spot. Growth is slowing and inflation is sticky. The markets are begging for cuts but the data says otherwise. https://newsletter.kalypsus.com/p/no-good-options-powell-s-interest-rate-crisis https://newsletter.kalypsus.com/p/no-good-options-powell-s-interest-rate-crisis"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1943716629700903417)  2025-07-11T16:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@VladTheInflator The US already can't afford its interest just wait until the debt is $40 trillion and have to refi at 5%:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1943724086904942730)  2025-07-11T17:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@augustb6x Housing has been through the roof post-COVID. Would be great to get some deflation from it but haven't seen any material decline yet (except it regional pockets)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1943727396370227409)  2025-07-11T17:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"AI can now automate most junior level work in investment banking and private equity. But this is not a new trend. Deal execution is a commodity in finance. The alpha is in building relationships and sourcing deals whether you are on the sell side or buy side"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1944043822180086136)  2025-07-12T14:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MacroEdgeRes It is true that Powell's Fed has done a poor job. i) They were late to the game with the post-covid inflation ii) allowed the economy to overheat iii) permanently drove up prices like food and housing. These are never coming back down and really hurt US citizens"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1944082547551744264)  2025-07-12T17:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge Powell's Fed has done a poor job: i) They were late to the game with the post-covid inflation ii) allowed the economy to overheat iii) permanently drove up prices like food and housing. These are never coming back down and really hurt US citizens"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1944096175818146158)  2025-07-12T18:07Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Your buddy who just finished his [--] years of investment banking at Goldman Sachs:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1944148859980329244)  2025-07-12T21:36Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@VladTheInflator The Feds Solution: Flood the economy with printed money. Double housing and food prices. Drive assets to new inflated highs. Fartcoin goes 100x"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1944161793594864007)  2025-07-12T22:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BoringBiz_ As owning a home and real estate have seen become seen as a wealth creator / investment (heavily pushed since early 2000's) this is the result. The median age of first time homebuyers is now almost [--] (it was [--] in 2016):"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1944417299168919776)  2025-07-13T15:23Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Geiger_Capital Investors are finally appreciating the use case when you have endless deficit spending and borrowing devaluing the global reserve currency:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1944557750777717064)  2025-07-14T00:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge China doesnt have enough consumer demand to reform their economy. Excess manufacturing is driven by government subsidies and cheap loans. They then dump the excess production for cheap globally. Everyone gets cheap stuff at the cost of domestic industries"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1944877403551203510)  2025-07-14T21:51Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@KathyJones Employment has held up despite the high rates. But inflation is still too high and the Fed cant allow it to pick up again. More inflation would be much worse for the economy than slower job growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1945086872532705735)  2025-07-15T11:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@SecScottBessent @POTUS The US is making too much money from tariffs to roll them back:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1945141840853733394)  2025-07-15T15:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Portfolio companies are overlevered. Impossible to exit investments. No liquidity to distribute to LPs. Bankruptcies just hit decade high. Private equity sponsors:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1945146588076368131)  2025-07-15T15:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BoringBiz_ IB is great if you want a predictable way to become wealthy. The cost is it consumes most of your life (hobbies relationships etc.) and youre still not retiring early. There are tons of other ways to get rich they just have more risk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1945162393706697093)  2025-07-15T16:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MacroEdgeRes You'd think investors would get the hint when Private Equity and Private Credit are pushing continuation funds and offloading to retail investors. not a red flag at all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1945248942402216385)  2025-07-15T22:27Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"It doesn't matter who the next Fed Chair is. Today's CPI print means the Fed is stuck. The economy and markets are too strong and inflation is too high. The Fed has to go higher for longer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1945254468527730789)  2025-07-15T22:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@LeylaKuni It doesn't matter who is the Fed chair. Inflation is too sticky to cut rates"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1945293523915256213)  2025-07-16T01:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Private equity is struggling and tariffs are making it worse. Exits fell 25% in 2Q25. Companies are getting killed by uncertainty around costs and suppliers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1945294939400655115)  2025-07-16T01:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@junkbondinvest Exactly what retiring boomers need in their portfolios 9x levered loans to HVAC companies and equity in reorg ShitCo's"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1945470353523749134)  2025-07-16T13:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@VladTheInflator Homebuyers aren't exactly killing it when 30-year mortgage rates are at 7%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/Kalypsus_/status/1945473376425816548)  2025-07-16T13:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@hkuppy Private equity is pushing continuation funds and offloading to retail investors. no red flags here"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1945475511267811641)  2025-07-16T13:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Geiger_Capital Powell hasn't done a very good job but it would be a bad precedent to replace the Fed Chair early. I can only Imagine an AOC / Newsom / Harris pick who would love more Modern Monetary Theory"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1945516376522678449)  2025-07-16T16:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MacroEdgeRes Tariffs are here to stay regardless of trade deal outcomes. Inflation is still low and payrolls are robust plus we've started collecting $30Bn per month"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1945517863013429570)  2025-07-16T16:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@picotop Forever indebted to him for my Gamestop and Fartcoin gains"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1945525869184786920)  2025-07-16T16:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@zerohedge Green energy is great it's just too expensive / unreliable on its own: - California's energy costs are double the rest of the country - Netherlands is rationing electricity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1945571200521867429)  2025-07-16T19:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Consumer delinquencies are trending upward but still well within the historical non-recession range. Another reason why the Fed isn't cutting yet:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1945576147246350376)  2025-07-16T20:07Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"America's housing crisis: the median age of first-time home buyers is pushing [--] (it was [--] in 2021). Higher home prices benefit boomers and property tax revenues. But it will have huge economic and social costs as new generations have less kids due to affordability"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1945622017597665505)  2025-07-16T23:10Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@unusual_whales This trend is accelerating from all sides. Mortgage rates are too high people have less money from inflation and Blackrock and other investment firms are buying up tons of properties"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1945820568319607142)  2025-07-17T12:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Private equity LPs waiting for a distribution:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1945895548826820939)  2025-07-17T17:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@NickTimiraos You can make the argument there is room for one 25bps cut. Things are slowing down a bit and inflation is muted. Beyond that is aggressive given markets are at ATHs and inflation is still 2.0%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1945976683871224187)  2025-07-17T22:39Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@KobeissiLetter This is the real goal of Trump's tariffs: use uncertainty to force companies to reshore out of China"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1945983289920979413)  2025-07-17T23:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"2021: Private Equity firms bragging about private market illiquidity "it removes volatility" 2025: Fundraising is in the toilet. PE secondaries are buying assets at discounts. Firms praying to offload onto retail investors"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1945986208691052841)  2025-07-17T23:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@OilHeadlineNews @RealJohnGaltFla You can clearly see why we still need fossil fuels. Netherlands is rationing energy because they got rid of their huge onshore gas field in [----] and electrified everything. California now has double the electricity prices of everywhere else"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1946188836452635078)  2025-07-18T12:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Means testing is a big one (if above a certain income don't qualify for social security medicaid). Same for Medicare if able bodied need a job to qualify. It's not rocket science you just have to reduce benefits and find ways to raise more funding. The alternative is keep running deficits but they'll be insolvent in the next decade so will just hurt more down the line"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1946228311815827815)  2025-07-18T15:19Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@zerohedge Another example of how you can't just blindly dive into green energy. Norway is now rationing electricity. California has double the prices of everywhere else"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1946287048207294975)  2025-07-18T19:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"New Post The trade deals are irrelevant. Tariffs are now the backbone of US trade policy. Deals or no deals tariffs are here to stay. 🔗Full article below 🔽"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1946295660531105842)  2025-07-18T19:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"https://illiquidinsights.beehiiv.com/p/the-tariff-president https://illiquidinsights.beehiiv.com/p/the-tariff-president"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1946295662246612998)  2025-07-18T19:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@WSPArchive The hardest part about entrepreneurship or doing your own thing is there's no set playbook like the boring corporate ladder"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1946565267275821534)  2025-07-19T13:38Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@thejobchick Lawyers have a tough outlook. Language and writing seem to be AI's strongest area currently (moreso than PPT excel etc. which have some abstract aspects to it). Easy to automate a lot of junior legal work"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1946567000483901564)  2025-07-19T13:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CGasparino @WSJ It's a bad precedent to have politicians influencing monetary policy. If they had their way rates would almost always be low (at the risk of bubbles and inflation)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1946719054955163916)  2025-07-19T23:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Cointelegraph Why would you want to adopt stablecoins versus bitcoin At least bitcoin is a decentralized currency that can't be deflated. What's the value in holding something pegged to dollars vs. just holding dollars"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1946725006030823576)  2025-07-20T00:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@TheShortBear Investing in China is rough. The entire market is a blackbox the data is fake and the government can outlaw entire industries in [--] hours"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1946730705687364027)  2025-07-20T00:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@zerohedge Another example of diving into green energy head first doesnt make sense. You need to weigh reliability and cost also. Norway is rationing electricity because they replaced their largest gas field with green energy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1946934065468178650)  2025-07-20T14:03Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Why Trumps tariffs are permanent (not just leverage): i) Dont require bilateral agreement ii) Markets have digested them iii) Bringing in significant revenue"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1947057615038525702)  2025-07-20T22:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"https://illiquidinsights.beehiiv.com/p/the-tariff-president https://illiquidinsights.beehiiv.com/p/the-tariff-president"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1947057617836142917)  2025-07-20T22:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@liensofnewyork All the boys long Kodak Xerox and IBM"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1947068201923228008)  2025-07-20T22:56Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@9kRPMadness Expect a "delay" with a 10% tariff (which probably the long-term plan)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1947068653419073783)  2025-07-20T22:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@LeylaKuni The multiple expansion must reflect some benefits from scale efficiency etc driven by PE oversight (although def also the market frothiness since 2010). The leverage part doesnt surprise me it is called a leveraged buyout after all"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1947302062120669630)  2025-07-21T14:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@StealthQE4 Its anyones guess at this point. Three months ago we were told the economy would explode and inflation would be through the roof. But nothing yet (for now at least)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1947440890899009782)  2025-07-21T23:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"It's insane how warped the housing market has become. Housing is now an investment asset for boomers and asset managers at the expense of new generations. There will be big long-term costs for making it even more expensive to have families. U.S. Housing Market has reached its most unaffordable level in history 🚨🚨 https://t.co/e7u0wTwRyg U.S. Housing Market has reached its most unaffordable level in history 🚨🚨 https://t.co/e7u0wTwRyg"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1947660199696994433)  2025-07-22T14:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DavidB9715 @MrAwsumb Meant the national market not the overbuilt covid areas (Florida Texas Arizona)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1947671532911604194)  2025-07-22T14:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@IDefsHateYou @junkbondinvest Just a weird mix with profit motive and caring for someones terminal grandparent. But I guess that exists w/out PE anyways"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1947831070269051138)  2025-07-23T01:28Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@partners_road GameStop and AMC mgmt must be getting amped up right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1947832019414618590)  2025-07-23T01:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@fredsoda Whats there to understand China is driven by gov subsidized manufacturing. Its consumers are poor / no demand so China dumps it globally for cheap. Thats the cycle. Other countries now are cognizant of the game and to stop the IP theft and dumping. Thats basically it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1947835367438344197)  2025-07-23T01:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Investingcom The trade deal talks have indicated that tariffs will remain long-term. China will probably face the same 30% tariff and US / China will agree to end other hostilities like rare earths and student visas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1947993041282711777)  2025-07-23T12:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@rcwhalen Why would you want tokens pegged to the dollar that is being eroded by deficits every year A fully decentralized currency like Bitcoin that governments can't devalue on a whim has much more utility"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1948360738214396090)  2025-07-24T12:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@NickTimiraos Another reason why the Fed shouldn't cut. The labor market is holding up decently well while inflation is still too high"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1948363440331825641)  2025-07-24T12:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@GuyTalksFinance The biggest risk to the US is not a market crash there is too much Fed stimulus its the devaluation of the dollar over time. Hence why everyone is buying bitcoin and gold"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1948385459014418602)  2025-07-24T14:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@zerohedge There goes the entire population's savings. Since their stock market is rigged and banks pay artificially low interest rates everyone is forced to invest in real estate as a store of value"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1948746917896208874)  2025-07-25T14:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DonMiami3 @MacroEdgeRes @RESightsbyME @MacroEdgeVision Markets are at ATHs Crypto and Meme stocks are popping and for some reason the market is dying for rate cuts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1948835924718309800)  2025-07-25T20:01Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@amendandpretend [--]. Outsource all non-essential roles to Poland"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1948849474396098775)  2025-07-25T20:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@zerohedge It's getting stronger as investors have diversified into global assets like Europe with Trump's tariffs. But it actually hurts the EU since it's making their exports more expensive"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1949087284000604469)  2025-07-26T12:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DrJStrategy The Fed's endless QE since [----] has distorted the cycles. Now assets just go up as they drown in liquidity at the cost to consumer wealth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1949148750015803399)  2025-07-26T16:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@brandonturp Blackrock and other investment firms gobbling up single family homes certainly isn't helping anything"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1949154398786986317)  2025-07-26T17:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited I wonder if the flood of liquidity since [----] has anything to do with this. It seems weird to compare with financial environments before the Fed drowned assets in printed money for almost [--] decades"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1949157075549864165)  2025-07-26T17:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@HayekAndKeynes Think this one is the most shocking. Median age of first time home buyers is pushing [--] now was [--] in [----]. No clue how we are going to fix the housing bubble:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1949476151744700498)  2025-07-27T14:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@HarryStebbings Now you have [--] year olds 1000x from Fartcoin"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1949488086137598422)  2025-07-27T15:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@junkbondanalyst It's clear the "temporary" 30% tariff on China is going to be the long-term rate"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1949488972977340911)  2025-07-27T15:16Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@MacroEdgeRes The current tariff rate during the pause is 30%. Seems like the goal is to keep that rate on China long term. Everyone else gets 10-15%"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1949490396507013547)  2025-07-27T15:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@BobEUnlimited At this point the asset rally is from fed money printing which is hiding how consumers are struggling"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1949492392890896813)  2025-07-27T15:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@StealthQE4 China's government influence is very helpful for industrial policy. They can direct the flow of investment into national priorities like clean energy and generation whereas the US has to deal with free market dynamics"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1949575267552293194)  2025-07-27T20:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@liensofnewyork It's almost impressive that you can somehow spend $8 on a small coffee in NYC now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1949575716921659802)  2025-07-27T21:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@MisterUppy People are waking up to the fact that its basically impossible to repay our debt without massively inflating the US dollar"  
[X Link](https://x.com/IlliquidInsight/status/1949576122569572352)  2025-07-27T21:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

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