#  @ICBarrett Baron of Ivy Grottage
Baron of Ivy Grottage posts on X about $rig, $val, $ne, $sdrl the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [----------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
### Engagements: [----------] [#](/creator/twitter::1533528124138430465/interactions)
- [--] Week [----------] +889,862%
- [--] Month [----------] +2,692%
- [--] Months [----------] +33,501%
- [--] Year [----------] +16,433%
### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1533528124138430465/posts_active)
- [--] Week [--] +7.10%
- [--] Month [---] +80%
- [--] Months [---] +155%
- [--] Year [---] +59%
### Followers: [-----] [#](/creator/twitter::1533528124138430465/followers)
- [--] Week [-----] +2.40%
- [--] Month [-----] +1.80%
- [--] Months [-----] +12%
- [--] Year [-----] +34%
### CreatorRank: [-------] [#](/creator/twitter::1533528124138430465/influencer_rank)
### Social Influence
**Social category influence**
[cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies) #7556 [finance](/list/finance) [countries](/list/countries) [stocks](/list/stocks) [technology brands](/list/technology-brands) [social networks](/list/social-networks) [celebrities](/list/celebrities) [us election](/list/us-election) [currencies](/list/currencies) [travel destinations](/list/travel-destinations)
**Social topic influence**
[$rig](/topic/$rig) #12, [$val](/topic/$val) #8, [$ne](/topic/$ne) #248, [$sdrl](/topic/$sdrl) #3, [$oih](/topic/$oih) #2, [$do](/topic/$do), [$rigs](/topic/$rigs), [$tdw](/topic/$tdw), [rig](/topic/rig) #74, [$gmx](/topic/$gmx)
**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@tommydeepwater](/creator/undefined) [@ultradeep3](/creator/undefined) [@foamontherunway](/creator/undefined) [@mugsluck](/creator/undefined) [@ragingbullcap](/creator/undefined) [@sfarringtonbkc](/creator/undefined) [@traderferg](/creator/undefined) [@hkuppy](/creator/undefined) [@elementaryvalue](/creator/undefined) [@cornelialake](/creator/undefined) [@bankerweimar](/creator/undefined) [@offshoremayor](/creator/undefined) [@churnerofmarket](/creator/undefined) [@architeuthisdx](/creator/undefined) [@natgasturk](/creator/undefined) [@sayssimulation](/creator/undefined) [@almostmongolian](/creator/undefined) [@geologotrader](/creator/undefined) [@energyrealist25](/creator/undefined) [@ottomaddox42](/creator/undefined)
**Top assets mentioned**
[Transocean LTD. (RIG)](/topic/$rig) [Validity (VAL)](/topic/$val) [Noble Corporation (NE)](/topic/$ne) [Seadrill Limited (SDRL)](/topic/$sdrl) [Tidewater, Inc. (TDW)](/topic/$tdw) [GMX (GMX)](/topic/$gmx) [Borr Drilling Limited (BORR)](/topic/$borr) [PolkaBridge (PBR)](/topic/$pbr) [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.-Petrobras (PBR.A)](/topic/$pbra) [TotalEnergies SE (TTE)](/topic/$tte) [Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU)](/topic/$btu) [Schlumberger NV (SLB)](/topic/$slb)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Any comments on this $PBR thread @calvinfroedge 1/ Thread on Petrobras.mostly notes from a review unstructured presentation but with a conclusion. Why look at PBR: After several years of operational missteps last decade Petrobras has looked like it was emerging as a viable turnaround story for the last few years. 1/ Thread on Petrobras.mostly notes from a review unstructured presentation but with a conclusion. Why look at PBR: After several years of operational missteps last decade Petrobras has looked like it was emerging as a viable turnaround story for the last few years"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1648778978868576258) 2023-04-19T20:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$RIG $VAL $OIH $PBR $PBR.A Petrobras is analyzing information it gathered from the latest drilling campaign. "Depending on that analysis MAYBE WE CAN SPEED UP (THE NEXT DRILLING CAMPAIGN). We are having a very good experience" Travassos said"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1653324730781368321) 2023-05-02T09:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@CLODaily And has anyone else noticed $RIG are only one of major OSDs that provide previous DRs in the FSR so making comparisons much easier I've learned these things matter: they're often telling you something significant about the co & their attitude towards s/holders. 2/n $VAL $NE $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1659127730409988096) 2023-05-18T09:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@CorneliaLake @marginthinking [--] year contracts with [--] yr EBITDA payback on the ARO (Aramco / $VAL JV) newbuild jack ups. Defo agree the floater mkt quite different: doesn't appear to be a sniff of a newbuild order. Who would offer equivalent contracts on a new UDW"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1661114455302742033) 2023-05-23T20:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@oracleof90402 @jimkenneyburner But we can see what that would take from model of ARO (Aramco / $VAL) JU orders: [--] year contracts with [--] yr EBITDA payback. $150k/day UDW opex. $1bn w 6yr EBITDA payback = $550k / day + opex = [--] yr $700k/day contract $1.2bn = $820k/day 1/n $OIH $RIG $NE $VAL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1661323134266425344) 2023-05-24T10:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Fortunately the further they dig the clearer they will make it how much damage a biz can do to itself / how much most of society dislikes the poison they are peddling. Please dig yourself right into your grave $TGT"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1662362279914897409) 2023-05-27T07:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OttoMaddox42 @TommyDeepwater @ArpatSood @Ultradeep3 @SeadrillLtd That may be true but we have those same shareholders shooting themselves in foot because not mentally agile enough to see what they should be pressing for (e.g. $VAL exercising DS options vs. returning cash). (I realise this may be too simplistic / harsh if mandates too tight.)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1665436561935138819) 2023-06-04T19:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OttoMaddox42 @TommyDeepwater @ArpatSood @Ultradeep3 @SeadrillLtd Fortunately $VAL etc largely shot their bolt with poor contracting strategy - so the adults ($RIG etc) are now in charge (which will of course also benefit the degenerates)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1665437899511279616) 2023-06-04T19:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@NICKRADICAL4 Agreed. My offshore thesis can be summarised: we need more oil offshore will be critical part of that supply we'll almost certainly need a new cycle of rig orders day rates will have to support that (& inevitably exceed for a period). No current order book $RIG $VAL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1665445290638299138) 2023-06-04T19:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$RIG $VAL $NE $DO $OIH"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1665626648287354882) 2023-06-05T07:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Even by Seeking Alpha's variable standards this $RIG article is truly dreadful❗ What is an eighth generation drill strip (And no $RIG has not significantly underperformed $VAL on a one year basis.)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1669051432111071244) 2023-06-29T20:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Hierony69122434 Yes there's still plenty of offshore investment PTSD to work through before generalists come back; that's still true for a lot of O&G generally - but esp offshore. I agree with @Laz_Cap. Just a matter of time before floater demand exceeds supply. $RIG $VAL $OIH $NE $DO 1/n"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1669268385492860930) 2023-06-29T20:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 @Hierony69122434 @NICKRADICAL4 @Laz_Cap @trader_ferg @OttoMaddox42 @FoamOnTheRunway @ArchiteuthisDx @CorneliaLake I agree. And @Laz_Cap fair points but: 1) $VAL have been excoriated for their degen contracting & now too scared to even take up $218m option on DS [--] 2) If an 8G UDW was quoted at $550m in [----] & ended up actually costing $1bn is $1bn cost at all likely 1/n"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1669314798016774145) 2023-06-15T12:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@KingKyl77163233 @churnerofmarket @TommyDeepwater Yes - and $RIG controls most of the stacked supply now that e.g. $VAL has shot its degen bolt"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1670140151949869057) 2023-06-17T18:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@G_A_Wilson @TommyDeepwater Yes $PBR have been the positive floater market offset to the likes of $VAL giving away their drillships on trough breakeven contracts"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1670484262246547457) 2023-06-18T17:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Imagine_Being__ @hkuppy @capitalistexp @kedm He had (has) a large position in $VAL bought just after relisting (& said at time). I'm interested in why Kuppy added to $TDW (he answered: sector consolidation) & also if he's adding to $VAL / other OSDs. I'd be especially interested in his thoughts on OSD management quality"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1670711082984382466) 2023-06-19T08:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@hkuppy @Imagine_Being__ @capitalistexp @kedm My largest position (by far) is $RIG but I have also added to $VAL: think the lagging / hate got too much. I believe this cycle will feed everybody at the table. Do you mind me asking if you reallocated to $VAL - or just used spare / new cash coming in"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1670760578481111041) 2023-06-19T11:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@hkuppy @Imagine_Being__ @capitalistexp @kedm Agreed. I would love to be a fly on the wall of contracting conversations / negotiations over $RIG's Invictus: https://twitter.com/TommyDeepwater/status/1669787809886904320 Deepwater Invictus is 7G [---] million lbs hook load [--] BOP's MPD ready. Contract rolls in July '23. An equity analyst with a $6 target on RIG has modeled a $452k rate on Invictus in 4Q23. Anxious to see where the dayrate shakes out on Invictus. I'm taking the over on $452k https://t.co/ZBblOPTBV9 https://twitter.com/TommyDeepwater/status/1669787809886904320 Deepwater Invictus is"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1670762928562225152) 2023-06-19T11:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater The rigs themselves (esp floaters) just seem a lot easier / more obvious; why make it harder than it needs to be $RIG $VAL $NE $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1672217517563994112) 2023-06-23T12:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OnlyFol35201188 @ValueNotDeadYet Such a pile of 💩 And populace don't seem to connect it to inflation or zero increase in real wages / living standards for [--] years (UK)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1672318160257556485) 2023-06-23T18:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OnlyFol35201188 Interesting sentiment so awful but e.g. $RIG still +38% YTD (though -19% from high) & $DO +24% YTD & only -3% vs. year high (v interesting if breaks to new high). $VAL - for year but my $PBR.A (only v small position) also done well. Even my other v large position #YCA.L +8% YTD"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1673647077622968320) 2023-06-27T11:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@BankerWeimar I'm old enough to remember when it was countries like Argentina Brazil Turkey etc got up to this 💩 🙄"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1674480778703503360) 2023-06-29T20:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@FoamOnTheRunway Haha - I doubt not going 80% net into one stock is restraint If you include my $DO & $VAL positions I was 110% long OSDs yesterday I bet $RIG outperforms my few small lowish conviction positions though; but I don't want to go back to zero in event of big left tail blow up"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1674868922150006784) 2023-06-30T19:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ShaiDardashti @TommyDeepwater @ArchiteuthisDx @CaptainRoyen @CorneliaLake @ed_fin @FoamOnTheRunway @Laz_Cap @marketplunger1 @MugsLuck @offshoremayor @OttoMaddox42 @ropeyyyy @SheDrills @Ultradeep3 I haven't bothered trying to do this Shai because I think about the problem differently (apologies if Im teaching granny to suck eggs). Also apologies for abusing my blue tick I learned from my time as a sell side analyst during fag end of tech / internet boom that trying"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1676956529810092034) 2023-07-10T20:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ShaiDardashti @TommyDeepwater @ArchiteuthisDx @CaptainRoyen @CorneliaLake @ed_fin @FoamOnTheRunway @Laz_Cap @marketplunger1 @MugsLuck @offshoremayor @OttoMaddox42 @ropeyyyy @SheDrills @Ultradeep3 7) Its difficult to imagine a world with consensus view newbuild floater orders must be placed - but I believe it's virtually inevitable. The huge gap between current consensus & that future world = source of continued outperformance of the offshore drillers. $OIH $RIG $VAL $NE"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1676957751862505476) 2023-07-06T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 $350k $465k /day by my reckoning. Equinox Australia + contract extension seems to have done the trick nicely. Kudos to $RIG management (again). What're the chance the global weak spot would have been tightened like that if $VAL had been negotiating the contracts"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1676989774697988096) 2023-07-06T16:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OttoMaddox42 Thanks Otto. I think huge majority of investors haven't grasped implications of no new supply vs. growing demand into a heavily rationalised fleet. This isn't even like coal: there is no new floater supply waiting to come online from non-western nations. $OIH $RIG $NE $VAL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1677295074722324480) 2023-07-07T12:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"cc: @trader_ferg. I think this is an important difference even vs. the coal thesis: floater supply is both tighter AND more visible. I think only things that could properly derail offshore thesis are a big accident or a 2nd shale revolution (or equivalent). $OIH $RIG $NE $VAL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1677298449580978176) 2023-07-07T12:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ShaiDardashti @churnerofmarket @TommyDeepwater @ArchiteuthisDx @CaptainRoyen @CorneliaLake @ed_fin @FoamOnTheRunway @Laz_Cap @marketplunger1 @MugsLuck @offshoremayor @OttoMaddox42 @ropeyyyy @SheDrills @Ultradeep3 I have been 110% long a basket of $RIG / $DO / $VAL split 68:20:12 for a while now. No plans to sell yet"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1677446573146398720) 2023-07-07T23:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater @ShaiDardashti @churnerofmarket @ArchiteuthisDx @CaptainRoyen @CorneliaLake @ed_fin @FoamOnTheRunway @Laz_Cap @marketplunger1 @MugsLuck @offshoremayor @OttoMaddox42 @ropeyyyy @SheDrills @Ultradeep3 Interesting. I just own common as all I can buy in tax advantaged accounts here in UK. I would prob have bought some $VAL warrants if could buy them in the accounts. I decided to just buy bigger positions (and somewhat lever up instead)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1677448435429957632) 2023-07-07T23:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@orrdavid @CorneliaLake Though $RIG is my largest position (by far) I do also own $DO & $VAL - and $PBR.A (though a small position). I actually agree with you that $VAL is likely to play catch up at some point"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1678146097745674241) 2023-07-09T21:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@orrdavid @TommyDeepwater Yes I doubt v much we'll change either of our minds. But I thought your points re: other offshore drillers looking cheaper was a fair one: at some point relative value does matter. I much preferred $RIG vs. $VAL at start of year. But $RIG has outperformed by 70% since then"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1678150951612366849) 2023-07-09T21:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @orrdavid @TommyDeepwater And @TommyDeepwater has pointed out there should be significant differences in implied value per rig if they are generating good cash at one company & a peer makes none over next 2-3 years. $RIG also should defo have a significant management premium vs. e.g. $VAL on top"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1678153992226889729) 2023-07-09T21:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@abadessenc New movement needed #charlatans #bringbackNickRadical $RIG $BTU $VNO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1678157730891137024) 2023-07-09T21:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""That's the real Saudi cut" If this is correct there'll be fireworks at some point Will ESG (finally) be toast $RIG $DO $NE $VAL"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1681273281226194945) 2023-07-18T12:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Further evidence management quality matters - a lot. You love to see the way $RIG balanced their desire not to tie up rigs LT with current day rates vs. customer desire not to pay more now vs. optionality for $RIG's fleet. Beautifully done Roddie Horrible contrast for $VAL's management. $RIG Excellent contract for two reasons: - term in US GoM - operator giving $RIG flex wrt the drillship $RIG Excellent contract for two reasons: - term in US GoM - operator giving $RIG flex wrt the drillship"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1681678391580164096) 2023-07-19T14:52Z [----] followers, 20.4K engagements
"@Steven_Cain_ Totally agree: at some point relative valuation must matter. $VAL's contracting performance will be dragged up by $RIG's & $NE's example"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1681718199132274689) 2023-07-20T23:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater @MugsLuck @Ultradeep3 @_EnergyRealist @CorneliaLake Well said Tommy. At least $VAL's negative contribution to contracting discipline is declining & $RIG appears to understand their position properly. We should be bloody grateful $RIG's management hadn't behaved as $VAL's: I suspect day rates would be quite different (lower)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1686116167537065984) 2023-07-31T20:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I don't believe leopards change their spots: IMO by FAR best outcome (for whole floater industry) would be for $VAL management to be replaced with people who understand the unfolding offshore upcycle - and the great position the offshore drillers are in. (I speak as a $VAL"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1686119987323314177) 2023-08-01T04:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"V encouraging call: we are lucky $RIG is leading the way with their smart contracting; contrast with $VAL (who have now fortunately largely shot their degenerate bolt). The offshore upcycle has outpaced the most optimistic predictions so far - I predict that will continue"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1686414487270707201) 2023-08-01T16:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TeddyGambino Totally agree in the management themselves. But what I don't quite understand is why INVESTORS keep underweighting importance of good low ego management. For whatever reason I think it's a source of enduring competitive advantage for those investors who can weight it properly"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1687117885624483841) 2023-08-03T15:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 @offshoremayor @_CaptainLuke Fortunately $VAL's influence on incremental supply is much reduced"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1688228790319611904) 2023-08-06T20:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Eventually $VAL makes the correct - and blindingly obvious - choice (under pressure)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1688630348182159360) 2023-08-07T19:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Do you deserve plaudits just for getting the basics right Well done $DO for getting your presentation ready for your Q2 earnings call; I wonder why $VAL couldn't I predict $RIG management will continue making smart choices / decisions & $VAL will do opposite. Track records forecasts $OIH $NE"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1688885487144927232) 2023-08-08T12:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The insane part of this (and damning indictment of $VAL's management) is they were talking only at Q1s as if they'd be smart NOT to take up these options At recent Q2s they'd done a [---] & erased all memory of their previous position. $VAL management can't be trusted. $OIH $RIG $NE $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1689241511882379264) 2023-08-09T11:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater Agreed. It is becoming too obvious what $VAL should be doing: I doubt they are ideological - just strategically poor (and to be fair perhaps not helped by short term focus from post BK shareholder base). This cycle will very likely lift all boats"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1689248060914688000) 2023-08-09T12:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Agree: I preferred $RIG & position now relatively even larger due to recent outperformance. But I also own $DO & $VAL. I was pretty sure $RIG would outperform $VAL from relative stock prices / market caps at start of year; much more nuanced now. At some point $VAL will outperform - at least for a while. No room for ideology in successful investing"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1689280038976225280) 2023-08-09T14:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @AAlsome1 @Ultradeep3 I'm not bothered: short of some serious left tail shock it's coming. Don't forget how well the offshore sector (ex $VAL) has already performed year to date: it's ALREADY happening. Though the consensus doesn't yet reflect how far it is (very) likely to go. $OIH $RIG $NE $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1689287592829698048) 2023-08-09T14:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"None of $VAL's historic accounting figures are of much use inc NAV. I share @hkuppy's view that at some point it will prob trade replacement cost otherwise no new rig supply will ever be incentivised. (I am a firm believer a new offshore floater order cycle will be required though.)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1689289467469643777) 2023-08-09T14:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I would guess 5x for $VAL as @hkuppy said here. I've gone with offshore floaters as I think the supply / demand situation is v unusually & radically in favour of current equity holders. Absolutely critical & non-fungible long life assets undersupplied & no possibility new supply for prob [--] years. $RIG $NE $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1689595007550791680) 2023-08-10T11:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ElementaryValue @Ultradeep3 Thanks David / UD: I've long thought that investors have not assigned the correct value to $RIG's [--] 8Gs - with unique capabilities delivered at this stage of the cycle & a long runway of "monopoly". They are worth $2.5bn cost imo (this will be revealed in time). 1/n"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1689974728532828160) 2023-08-11T12:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$RIG is no doubt already in serious contract negotiations for Atlas for [----] campaign start. But they know its worth & I v much doubt will let go cheap. Atlas's next contract will be a v important cycle marker. Just as well $VAL not in charge of contract negotiations 2/n *$2.25bn cost"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1689977260214775808) 2023-08-11T12:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @DevoutDriller @ElementaryValue @Ultradeep3 They might all drop as investors don't want newbuilds (yet). But there is virtually ZERO chance of $VAL announcing a newbuild anytime soon. They've only JUST got their heads around taking up the more expensive of their yard rig options DS-14 for only $218m"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1689991597683785730) 2023-08-11T13:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fab detail from the Mayor 🙏 $RIG Titan & Atlas 8Gs = semi-monopoly. Forthcoming Atlas contract critical cycle marker. $VAL $NE $DO I had a few wells that couldnt be completed because the capabilities of my rig were maxed out (pressure was too high). Theres a lot of window dressing when it comes to specs on new rigs. 90% of the upgrades listed on new-build dont really improve efficiency or enhance the I had a few wells that couldnt be completed because the capabilities of my rig were maxed out (pressure was too high). Theres a lot of window dressing when it comes to specs on new rigs. 90% of"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1690069709671067649) 2023-08-11T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Enjoyed $VAL (deservedly) getting the boot: "It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Valaris is being driven with the handbrake on." $OIH $RIG $NE $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1691156772470353920) 2023-08-14T18:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@OttoMaddox42 @Ultradeep3 That's like saying I'd rather be slapped than punched (I do enjoy a spot of $VAL kicking - great hobby that keeps on giving 🌟) I think of $VAL as the aliens who have infiltrated & taken over: they watch $RIG & try to copy but they don't really know what they should be doing"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1691186827498045440) 2023-08-14T20:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @CliffEngleLtd Don't forget Churner we can be pretty sure demand continues to increase - and now with a delightful tinge of FOMO. $VAL has one reactivation & two strandeds they can (& prob will) undersell. 1/n $OIH $NE $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1691360176182317056) 2023-08-15T08:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @CliffEngleLtd Don't forget only way to get (heavily lagged) increased supply is for day rates to EXCEED newbuild parity for long enough to force new orders. Most people don't think it will happen - but far more likely than not imo; this is NOT the end of the cycle. 3/n $OIH $RIG $VAL $NE $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1691361522814005250) 2023-08-15T08:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"This is why I like $RIG of the offshore drillers (you only need to listen to last few conf calls vs. competition & see what actually happened vs. what they said). We are privileged to have $RIG leading industry. If $VAL had more discipline DRs would be much higher; if $RIG were like $VAL they'd be much lower"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1691479453904281601) 2023-08-15T15:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@offshoremayor @NatgasTurk *Except $VAL"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1691887026969121147) 2023-08-16T18:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Judd is bang on with this. The offshore floater market is very unusually transparent: [---] floaters globally most offshore drill co's public & report quarterly + qly FSRs + most contracts significant enough = announceable in between. Plus certainty of no unknown new supply coming out of woodwork. Perfectly possible to have a general mkt view managements beaten by ESG wrong post BK investor class etc. E.g. they mostly still talk as if another floater newbuild cycle will never happen; IMO it is MUCH more likely than not. Prediction: in a couple of years everyone will talk about the inevitability"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1692643730178679279) 2023-08-18T21:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@OnlyFol35201188 @WinstonV99 I think $TGA looks interesting here too: lot of negativity in price + high net cash. Too much political stupidity still for energy crisis / problems to have actually been fixed. As @trader_ferg says: coal is the short term fallback for results of stupid energy / grid policies"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1693581235010830489) 2023-08-21T11:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Judd on the money again: "You can still buy the entire offshore universe at well under 5.0x EBITDA on $450k terminal rates.stunning in our view.""
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1693609522793763188) 2023-08-21T13:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Lee has been consistently correct re: UKR / Russia situation. Remember the mental model is: Track records forecasts Listen to @LeeBTConsulting; disregard Western govt / media. We now see public acknowledgements of this war's ghastly human toll along with hints that Ukraine cannot win militarily (which was always the case.) This is the start of the pivot I described six months ago in Rubble and Rhetoric: Many People Died for Nothing. Heres the We now see public acknowledgements of this war's ghastly human toll along with hints that Ukraine cannot win militarily (which was always the case.)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1693611032877424889) 2023-08-21T13:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@MugsLuck @offshoremayor @Ultradeep3 Yes were you referring to more than just stock price action Mayor Do you have some major new negative industry info to tell us"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1694780629437595918) 2023-08-24T18:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Phew Apologies if advice unwanted (in which case just ignore) but I wouldn't get too bothered about price action (e.g. in $RIG). You must be amongst the best of us to understand the offshore drilling cycle & where we likely are in that - from your personal experience. Finding a really good set up & sitting tight to properly harvest rewards is where the true money is in stock investing; not trading"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1694785343919210639) 2023-08-24T18:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater @Old_Skool_Funk Forgot to ask why you think $DO has under-appreciated asset value Tommy"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1695897562648101138) 2023-08-27T20:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I bet Tommy is right 👇 $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1696582350191161349) 2023-08-29T17:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OnlyFol35201188 That's an interesting way of putting it. Obvious answer is no; however the point is effectively moot as a rig ordered today wouldn't show up for 3-5 years (bet it would be closer to 5+ as no new floater orders have been placed since [----] - so no one geared up for it). So there"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1696583963395907775) 2023-08-29T18:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@LeeBTConsulting @BankerWeimar @imetatronink Totally agree: memory holing / totally avoiding responsibility for what they strongly proposed / supported is their way. Did you watch Tuckers interview with Orban Lee Orban made the exact same point you made above re: US"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1697290416020713893) 2023-08-31T16:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Bear in mind that true inflation reported figures (as the chart below clearly implies). I think more likely than not they'll have to change the Y-axis scale (upwards) in due course. $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1698342693338792075) 2023-09-03T14:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 @Laz_Cap @MSVCap $VAL tithe for the whole industry"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1698356327611863541) 2023-09-03T15:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater More correct to say $VAL management have zero credibility on strategic view of offshore cycle Still gradually withdrawing (& memory holing) their previous dreadful takes on: bottom cycle breakeven reactivations + forced (through investor ridicule) to take up DS-13 & DS-14"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1699172825507025274) 2023-09-05T21:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater I'm always suspicious of consensus. Everyone thinks (or says) a newbuild offshore floater cycle either won't happen - or not for a long time. Why can't the surprising strength of this OSD upcycle continue - or even accelerate into a squeeze $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1699174426292412613) 2023-09-05T21:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$RIG deliberately fought very hard through the downturn to still take delivery of their two uniquely capable 8Gs Atlas & Titan. As I've said repeatedly they're extremely valuable delivered at this stage of cycle; almost certainly worth $2.25bn cost. Don't forget Atlas"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1699341738173747440) 2023-09-06T08:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@churnerofmarket (That's for both by the way)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1699351880281837960) 2023-09-06T09:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Great write up Tommy - my fave so far I think (though I might be a bit biased 💫) $RIG $RIG $OIH Deepwater Weekly Update Sept [--] [----]. Barclays CEO Conference Summary Part [--] of [--]. "The Quarterback of Offshore Drilling" $SDRL $DO $VAL $NE All did well at Barclays but Jeremy Thigpen of $RIG lit up the room with his confidence and charisma. Management matters. https://t.co/OHMR0HJwBY $RIG $OIH Deepwater Weekly Update Sept [--] [----]. Barclays CEO Conference Summary Part [--] of [--]. "The Quarterback of Offshore Drilling" $SDRL $DO $VAL $NE All did well at Barclays but Jeremy Thigpen of $RIG lit up the"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1700983161285714053) 2023-09-10T21:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Important correction: Offshore wind SHOULD be dead. I don't think they'll give it up that easy though: all the articles in UK mainstream press I've read make it sound like we MUST have more wind power to save us boiling & we should be willing to pay any price. cc: @OldWhiteWalker"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1700985408405012722) 2023-09-10T21:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@churnerofmarket I don't agree MC: there was perhaps a genuine case to consider $VAL's position when they began reactivating on breakeven contracts at the lows. As @hkuppy put it: 'stacked ships become scrapped ships' & we didn't know how long we had to wait. But $RIG's patience / reading of"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1700990141752611313) 2023-09-10T21:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@NatgasTurk @MugsLuck That's true - but $VAL's managerial discount prob only close on a 'passive' basis (i.e. where they get dragged up with the cycle). Unfortunately the same poor management is in charge so they will prob continue to make sub-optimal decisions. Track records forecasts $RIG $VAL"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1701518734895018207) 2023-09-12T08:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OnlyFol35201188 Jeff Currie is the contemporary Tony Dye of the oil / energy market (Tony Dye refused to buy tech stocks in UK in late 90's - fired just before internet bust) https://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/tony-dye-controversial-fund-manager-796811.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/tony-dye-controversial-fund-manager-796811.html"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1701686226217038074) 2023-09-12T19:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MugsLuck Nothing personal Ed I hope so: more consolidation is a significant part of my more bullish case scenarios 🤑 Removal / replacement of $VAL management would also be helpful. $RIG 💒 $SDRL $DO $VAL $NE"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1702392589104681344) 2023-09-14T18:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Judd is bang on: even according to $RIG (who planned v well for the upturn & said publicly - though obliquely - expected $600k+ DRs eventually) the strength of the upturn has surprised everybody so far. Why would you suddenly expect them to become superforecasters $VAL $SDRL $NE $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1703498659474579690) 2023-09-17T19:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"All are / were generally believed; all wrong; all great sources of alpha: Covid = existential threat Vax = safe & effective Climate change = existential threat with anthropomorphic cause CO2 = pollutant Wind & solar can power modern economy Fossil fuel demand will peak this"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1703537934572384295) 2023-09-17T22:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OttoMaddox42 Exactly. I'm convinced this is part of reason e.g. $RIG's fleet status reports are so much more transparent than competitors: they want to drag everyone else (yes $VAL looking at you 👀) up with them without any direct / overt cartel actions"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1703552117024178339) 2023-09-17T23:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @Trading_Sunset Where do you get your ideas from Philip $OXY acquiring $RIG makes about as much sense as your ongoing "not profitable / no interest" on $RIG & your accompanying puzzlement as it continues to outperform"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1703721362500534596) 2023-09-18T10:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater @ProvenReserves Yes Tommy is more polite than me. You are embarrassing yourself with your ill informed $RIG / Aquila nitpicking @ProvenReserves (though I understand you may be just deliberately fanning controversy for engagement)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1703723204722766154) 2023-09-18T10:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Extended offshore upcycle anyone $RIG $VAL $SDRL $NE $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1703910585409167402) 2023-09-18T23:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Every offshore driller investor should thank $RIG for their contracting discipline / strategy: if they'd used $VAL's playbook day rates would be much lower now (and vice versa). $RIG for the win. Day rates have led utilization 🔥 https://t.co/wK88PJBU7F $RIG for the win. Day rates have led utilization 🔥 https://t.co/wK88PJBU7F"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1704568497936715843) 2023-09-20T18:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Jeff Currie's sacrifice saved us all 🙏 $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO $OIH"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1704826317554729060) 2023-09-21T11:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"They will make themselves 26.5% poorer. Don't they know of the almost perfect correlation between energy use & GDP growth The new law called The Energy Efficiency Act would regulate energy savings in public buildings industry and data centers in hopes of reducing energy consumption by 26.5% by [----] compared to [----]. https://t.co/MYc215RKOV https://t.co/jxxLLCHr9d The new law called The Energy Efficiency Act would regulate energy savings in public buildings industry and data centers in hopes of reducing energy consumption by 26.5% by [----] compared to [----]. https://t.co/MYc215RKOV"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1704981084922958036) 2023-09-21T22:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This is a great way of thinking of how far off newbuild floater orders we are. (I still think rates will eventually incentivise - but enjoy the cash flow gushing gap in between everybody). $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1705319725671084423) 2023-09-22T20:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"2% of portfolio split over [--] stocks: is this an allocation for ants"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1706044388680339683) 2023-09-24T20:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"OSVs / PSVs vs. floating drillships Floater demand slower to ramp - but no new supply anywhere on horizon $TDW $RIG $DO $NE $SDRL $VAL"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1706310783607402951) 2023-09-25T14:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"He's not really vague if you read his stuff over a period of time (+ I've been a @KEDM_COM subscriber). His fave current trade is uranium. He also loves offshore. And $JOE. U & offshore critical & non fungible = massive inflation beneficiaries. And supply short for both anyway - so do well even without inflation. I have literally been 100% invested in only uranium & offshore myself for months (though I've preferred $RIG to $VAL unlike @hkuppy)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1706664524869509377) 2023-09-26T13:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Offshore floating drillships vs. OSVs $TDW $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1707149367914705008) 2023-09-27T21:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I'd like to report a murder: ESG killed German manufacturing. Mark's right: Germans prob have a v short window to reverse course on nuclear - before eventually realising in a few years they're semi-permanently poorer & much less important. Unfortunately here in UK we blew up"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1707157713069728132) 2023-09-27T22:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@MugsLuck Love this: Seadrill was able to obtain a dividend yield valuation and attracted an investor base focussed on dividends. .wait for it (drum roll).prior to bankruptcy 💫 (I think there could be a lesson there somewhere)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1707462767148482962) 2023-09-28T18:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Agree: I would like to see more consolidation. It's happening slowly anyway ($RIG's Aquila buy out $VAL taking up DS-13 & DS-14 options etc). But would be great to see something more significant. I hope $RIG can gain control of some other rigs. Still don't like $VAL's management but even so like consolidation"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1707468319266099491) 2023-09-28T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks Mayor - I do like hearing your insider takes Are we correct though to evaluate current management based upon the poor decisions made by prior management a decade ago at the fag end of previous upcycle Based upon current / recent management activities it is $VAL who've been making suboptimal decisions (though improving). Do you still hear of operational shortcomings re: Seadrill"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1707689867352678449) 2023-09-29T09:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CoterieDan @puppyeh1 But the dreadful yield tells you the cap gains have ALREADY happened; sooner or later reality will catch up with that gross rental yield vs. current interest rates. It can take a long time (e.g. Japan in late '80s) but happens eventually when prices get totally out of whack"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1708944920189206607) 2023-10-02T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Overall conclusion correct but there are a couple of major fails in article: 1) No mention of EROI: single most important factor 2) Nuclear only very expensive because we've made it so - not through its intrinsic characteristics (evidenced by much lower build costs / times elsewhere) If gas is to be replaced by electricity to heat homes and offices and if petrol and diesel vehicles are to be phased out peak electricity demand is estimated to treble even if Rishi Sunak has now delayed both initiatives. https://t.co/QrCp4tk6y5 If gas is to be replaced by electricity to heat homes and offices"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1709235524370612294) 2023-10-03T15:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Listen to Tommy everyone; esp the last bit My prediction: offshore floater day rates will surprise the hell out of all the non-thinking normies who've not grasped the coming tsunami effect of ESG-led under investment into growing oil demand & structurally undersupplied offshore rigs. $RIG $VAL $NE $DO $SDRL"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1709480088985550991) 2023-10-04T08:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I think I might be a gloater boy AND an offshore cultist My parents must have gone wrong somewhere. $RIG $DO $NE $SDRL $VAL (Seriously though I think @ArchiteuthisDx the peacemaker is right: we're all really on the same team ✨)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1709618071193710895) 2023-10-04T17:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Q: how can you tell the "greens" / environmentalists aren't really green A: they're anti-nuclear (inc already build nuclear) You don't need any other information"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1709969309617762707) 2023-10-05T16:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Is it different this time Consolidation at beginning of upcycle + no order book for offshore: are we going to the promised land $RIG $NE $DO $VAL $SDRL This consolidation is happening (IN MY OPINION) at the beginning of an upcycle not at the end (which is what usually happens). Grab some popcorn folks the next two years are going to be awesome and interesing. This consolidation is happening (IN MY OPINION) at the beginning of an upcycle not at the end (which is what usually happens). Grab some popcorn folks the next two years are going to be awesome and interesing"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1710281655112364067) 2023-10-06T13:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Globex Mining Enterprises $GMX.TO mentioned in The Mining Speculator. I speak for around 0.75% of $GMX (0.3% personally)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1710369560468091380) 2023-10-06T19:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I hope the offshore wind industry goes the way of the dinosaurs. 'Green transition' = Great Green Grift It has no basis in reality on multiple levels: wind & solar can never be of systemic use due to v low firmed EROI CO2 is not a pollutant etc"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1711384265970069752) 2023-10-09T14:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Another instance in the journey of my 'waking up': the whole vet / vet food industry is just as rotten as the human medical / pharmaceutical industry. Once you start to use the right heuristics / mental models it becomes much easier to spot / predict these. The correct ones here are: what did we / our pets evolve to eat & what are the incentives around something quite different being sold to us as better for them"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1711472569935614096) 2023-10-09T20:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is a good take from The Nat Gas Turk: bet he's right. Track records forecasts $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1714697000342388755) 2023-10-18T17:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Remember this next time: Western media has an abusive relationship with truth / reality over everything important ('climate change' / covid / UKR -Russia). You are naive if you don't expect same re: Israel / Hamas. Track records forecasts"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1714962604890669320) 2023-10-19T11:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"If this report is correct re: $VAL's inability to shake their degen contracting addiction with DS-13 & DS-14 it will take $RIG to be disciplined for that bit longer to tighten the mkt back up. Just imagine if $VAL had also been in charge of $RIG's stacked capacity: DRs would be MUCH lower (& vice versa). Is Anton secretly on the payroll of the oil majors / NOCs Remember: track records forecasts $NE $SDRL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1715473542765056496) 2023-10-20T21:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater Will be v interesting to see if rumours correct; if so $VAL management insane & worthy of contempt"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1715476565616693358) 2023-10-20T21:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Agreed: $RIG have planned to cope with judicious mix of contract term & debt management. They'll be fine. $VAL got two more shots to waste with DS-13 & DS-14; & only took up the options under severe external pressure / ridicule. If the rumours on contract DRs are correct shows Anton never really believed in the cycle: couldn't bear to have the new DSs potentially idle"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1715483815534035232) 2023-10-20T21:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheDriller11 Well if this is correct re: $VAL (I do think we need to be wary until / if confirmed) you will certainly have got the shorter term call right. Medium+ term well see if we have enough floating rigs; I doubt it"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1715657156874117421) 2023-10-21T09:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks Ed. 39:25 Bob Robotti quotes $SDRL CEO OSD going to look like Cuban cab business: no one is going to order a new $1bn drillship with such uncertainty over demand in a decade $RIG $VAL $SDRL $NE $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1716203406430249465) 2023-10-22T21:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@CorneliaLake Maybe you should have quit to buy $BX at $5"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1716209063883649532) 2023-10-22T21:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Could whoever took Anton's balls pls return them so we can all live happily ever after in offshore; failing that could Jeremy lend him one of his as he seems to have plenty spare 🍒 $VAL $RIG $NE $SDRL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1716479831502671984) 2023-10-23T15:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Can you invite the offshore drillers to the orgy pls Judd 🙏 $RIG $VAL $SDRL $NE $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1717637828346003538) 2023-10-26T20:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Let's hope enough of the drillers hold the line (and yes I'm 👀 at you $VAL) $RIG $NE $SDRL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1718739377080218095) 2023-10-29T21:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@valuehurts @ElementaryValue I should prob keep my mouth shut & not be an annoying wind up merchant We'll prob share at some point in future: illiquid & still accumulating"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1718767140184920173) 2023-10-29T23:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Great commentary as usual Judd. Just shows how much alpha available to anyone who can look further out than a few Q's. Most investors / traders just won't - either through inclination / temperament or investment / fund structure. Buffett wasn't wrong: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." $RIG"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1719373777593676262) 2023-10-31T15:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TRN57523902 @TommyDeepwater I think they will be eventually. They have greatly benefitted from capital ill discipline from the drillers in past. As @CorneliaLake puts it: there is no order book (and no prospect of one either). $RIG $NE $DO $SDRL $VAL"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1719407076261134717) 2023-10-31T17:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Read this from Judd. If you believe in the cycle all that remains is to be patient. I have not read anything credible that suggests cycle is dead: we will need that oil & gas despite what the ESGers would have us believe. $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1719657855161172179) 2023-11-01T10:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I am not impressed with this analysis of the results for the 3rd Qt. for Transocean $RIG"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1719713554952057225) 2023-11-01T13:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 Yes I thought this was great: very clear obvious logic hard to disagree. I suppose without all the bipolar investor behaviour there wouldn't be good opportunities for the (actual) long term investor - so shouldn't complain 💫 $NE $RIG $VAL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1720054414839316826) 2023-11-02T12:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fab post cc: @LeeBTConsulting @BankerWeimar"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1720179215234965958) 2023-11-02T20:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@BankerWeimar @LeeBTConsulting Oh I totally agree with you: Zelensky (and Ukraine in general) have been royally shafted by the West. Track records forecasts (as you say)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1720214330417811840) 2023-11-02T23:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I was busy today & only read / listened to $DO & $VAL Q3 calls - not caught up on my Twitter yet this eve. I'm not invested in any of the OSV companies - missed that boat I would think @CorneliaLake would be your man for $TDW commentary / analysis. I added (v small as out of firepower & way oversized already) to $RIG today at lows ($6.36) - if any use re: my personal views. (I'm not particularly impressed with the I told you so guy re: his $RIG commentary where I think I do understand situation reasonably well.) I've listened to $RIG $NE $DO & $VAL Q3 calls & I've not heard anything to"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1722004993782296856) 2023-11-07T21:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 @OnlyFol35201188 @CorneliaLake It seems that way - in theory anyway - let's see if they practice what they preach Though I wouldn't have guessed it would be $VAL out of the major OSDs who'd make a comment / dig like that at investors' unrealistic expectations: perhaps the worm really has turned $VAL🪱🔄"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1722180508824543414) 2023-11-08T09:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@variance_swap @AlmostMongolian @OnlyFol35201188 We haven't invested enough due to the ESG brigade / US shale. I have been (and continue to) hang out in the offshore drillers: they don't even need higher oil prices to do v well - that would just be gravy"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1722340490530435411) 2023-11-08T19:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Barclays modelling $500k/day peak day rate for UPSIDE case; is this an upside case for ants $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1724216004052439479) 2023-11-14T00:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Marcus is not wrong If something must happen; it will $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1724470553442959789) 2023-11-14T16:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MugsLuck @TommyDeepwater @offshoremayor Haha - that would be great but I severely doubt Anton would vacate the throne to the pretender Bernie from smaller $DO. And would any $VAL shareholder group be interested / able to push that through It would be hugely positive for industry though"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1725102662981452099) 2023-11-16T10:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes please if the offshore driller gods are listening 🙏 $VAL $DO $RIG $NE $SDRL"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1725102986450350229) 2023-11-16T10:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"On a more serious note I don't understand how one can be so bullish floater supply vs demand imbalance but hate $RIG: @hkuppy has been massively helped in his $VAL investment by $RIG's contracting discipline (though admittedly one could argue $RIG also simply didn't have funds for reactivations). I listened to him recently and the way he squares that circle is to assume $RIG's reactivation costs / time will be so high / long they cannot be economic no matter what the DRs on offer (he recently referred to reactivation costs of $400-500m per vessel now or $600-700m in another 2-3 years: time"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1725819701870162349) 2023-11-18T10:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @TaviCosta @contrarian8888 @ElementaryValue I have found a great way to play it - but an illiquid microcap & I'm still accumulating - so keeping quiet for time being"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1725955594094309392) 2023-11-18T19:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Lars57360069 @churnerofmarket I don't either & it's a fair point: I bet the Saudis didn't expect oil $80 after maintaining fairly deep cuts"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1725961847013023927) 2023-11-18T19:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I'm baffled if you really think $VAL is best run of the OSDs It is not just me / these other guys here on FinTwit who think $VAL have regularly put their foot in it. Judd didn't post this because we're all imagining the issues: Though I do concede if this mid-cycle lull continues for a significant period $VAL may accidentally have got themselves into a decent position. Accidentally because: 1) There was no articulated strategy & e.g. they had to do an embarrassing public reverse ferret over taking up DS-13 & DS-14 yard options & 2) They gave the dreadfully priced options on top of the initial"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1726339525369012670) 2023-11-19T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ElementaryValue @Edark94 I saw that: damn glad to be able to swerve all that brain damage"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1726963887407583321) 2023-11-21T14:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"How odd I've only been blocked by two people: Magnesium Papi & Josh Young @TaviCosta Gold is back above $2000. The next move for the metal is to break out from a triple-top formation. Precious metals have never been this close to a third cycle. If so two important assets are poised to become major beneficiaries: Silver with a historically high [--] gold-to-silver ratio 📷 The overlooked underappreciated and unloved mining industry currently valued at a fraction of its historical valuations"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1727246021787255096) 2023-11-22T08:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 Are we going to survive"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1727764518808309899) 2023-11-23T19:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NatgasTurk Yes a reality dodging blocker is not the best indicator in a fund manager"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1728147591500644649) 2023-11-24T20:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@MugsLuck @oilgastourist Ed's got it: bad news = bearish; good news also = bearish. Not sure Also bearish. $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1729649964869972385) 2023-11-28T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JosefMichaels And you can even buy physical uranium at a 10% discount to current spot price (NAV) via Yellow Cake $YCA.L"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1729664877537440135) 2023-11-29T00:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Highly disturbing Did you read this article This is bonkers (Sweden similar): "in the last twenty years Ireland has added about 30% to its population most of that through migration. To get a sense of how traumatic this is to a country with such a small population it would be as if the United States added roughly [---] million people to its population in only two decades. And America is far more culturally and ethnically diverse than Ireland meaning it has the experience and flexibility to deal with immigration that Ireland through no fault of its own does not.""
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1729665777567936727) 2023-11-29T00:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Ed's got to the crux of the matter: "If reactivations start it should be from bullish demand if not it's tight" Does that mean offshore is developing into an each way bet. $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1729896504008016334) 2023-11-29T16:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Ed has morphed into the Oracle of Offshore: plugged straight into the source (obvs comes through with some static - hence tricky for us mere mortals to understand 💫) $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1731024099642675610) 2023-12-02T18:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"This explains why your electricity bills keep going up despite greater penetration of "cheapest" wind & solar. Reality = undefeated"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1731729801772208492) 2023-12-04T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Judd's point here works in reverse too: you have to do your own thinking at the inflections. $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1733255957973438943) 2023-12-08T22:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Hi Mayor. That's exactly why the deepwater sector likely to do v well in future: BECAUSE it bled for years. It's a feature - not a bug - of the thesis. Unless you think the deepwater oil won't be needed the depth & duration of the 2014-21 downturn is likely to - at least roughly - indicate the shape / magnitude of following upcycle. $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1733438277720400134) 2023-12-09T10:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"GET YOUR BLUE TICK PEOPLE❗ Judd is bang on: uncensored Twitter is EXTREMELY important for the direction of the western democracies. I don't think it would be hyperbole to refer to it as existential. It could easily be decisive at the next US election - and probably would have been at the last: just imagine the Hunter Biden laptop story getting properly aired before / during the election - rather than covered up with the connivance of the press & intelligence agencies. Look at what is happening with Irish hate speech laws right now: this is what they want to do everywhere. I knew they would"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1733451749644521622) 2023-12-09T11:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"What should I do if I can't stop my solar doubts Will a battery help me too"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1736908625027670498) 2023-12-19T00:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@charlesbonnerjr I could have warned you Charles 😆 I favour $RIG (apparently I'm a particularly egregious example of a $RIG cultist); but also own $DO & $VAL (though significantly smaller size)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1737124935766602029) 2023-12-19T14:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Finally got around to listening to @TommyDeepwater: just as good as I'd hoped I've swapped a few DMs with Tommy; not only is he highly knowledgeable about the offshore floater space I'm pretty sure he is one of the good guys ✨ $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO Honoured to host @TommyDeepwater on his first podcast. We cover his research into the offshore oil industry & why it's in the early stages of a raging bull market. $RIG $TDW $VAL $NE https://t.co/am7moNHi2P Honoured to host @TommyDeepwater on his first podcast. We cover his research into the offshore oil industry & why it's in the early stages of"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1737247867402653836) 2023-12-19T23:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"So we have @hkuppy on one side vs. an independent tag team of @Ultradeep3 & @TommyDeepwater on the other side - both having previously worked as credit analysts. I know which side my $ is on (and it actually is: $RIG my largest position though I also own some $VAL). You can do your own rough check on a common sense basis using mental model (this approach works v well for me; FAR better than spreadsheets). DRs have doubled from the lows & continue rising e.g. in HE (where $RIG is strong) $RIG's average fleet DR is guaranteed to continue rising they've taken the pain of Atlas & Titan capex /"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1737479798799142955) 2023-12-20T14:27Z [---] followers, 29K engagements
""Ultimately with the ever-tightening supply/demand balance costly reactivation and new construction economics as well as inflationary pressures Westwood expects dayrates to continue their northward trajectory in [----] across the board." $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO RigLogix currently records a total of [--] tendersout in the market with a start date in [----] that have a firm duration of 2-5 yearsincluding those with start dates in 2025/2026 this figure increases to [--] $OIH $RIG $NE $VAL https://t.co/RpFbh4Cnw2 RigLogix currently records a total of [--] tendersout in the market with a start date in 2024"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1737484428136317319) 2023-12-20T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@FoamOnTheRunway @hkuppy @Ultradeep3 @TommyDeepwater Haha - sorry I don't know why Kuppy wants to keep banging this tired old drum"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1737486228444893656) 2023-12-20T14:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @hkuppy @Ultradeep3 @TommyDeepwater Oh blimey: I forgot Nick (may he RIP wherever he is). Kuppy is formidable: but up against the $RIG wolfpack.I don't think so"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1737486765957468652) 2023-12-20T14:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@marginofdanger @hkuppy @Ultradeep3 @TommyDeepwater There's enough torque in them for me & I am comfortable with $RIG management & asset positioning; I have bought something much smaller & off radar for my PM / other commods exposure"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1737504326606549362) 2023-12-20T16:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@UnironicOilBull @FoamOnTheRunway @hkuppy @Ultradeep3 @TommyDeepwater That IS how he behaves: Kuppy recently said $VAL had best management & best assets 🤯 He may literally be the only offshore investor thinks $VAL has best management (if he does actually think that - rather than just saying it)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1737505788917109082) 2023-12-20T16:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Haha - I already said you're too nice Tommy 😆 Don't worry I'm not actually bothered: but I do think Kuppy is being silly & embarrassing himself with his pro- $VAL / anti- $RIG maximalist position. I'm pro- $RIG but it is dangerous to be any kind of maximalist - hence I also own smaller positions in $DO & $VAL. Can't count how many times I've been "right church wrong pew" as @CorneliaLake put it so well in recent interview"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1737507392571548133) 2023-12-20T16:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Savage - but true We now live in a nation where doctors destroy health lawyers destroy justice universities destroy knowledge governments destroy freedom the press destroys information religion destroys morals and our banks destroy our economy. Chris Hedges We now live in a nation where doctors destroy health lawyers destroy justice universities destroy knowledge governments destroy freedom the press destroys information religion destroys morals and our banks destroy our economy. Chris Hedges"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1739074615131959308) 2023-12-25T00:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"This will be happening from Scotland England too. Extra income tax bands higher rates higher stamp duty on housing. Eventually that golden goose will go somewhere else. "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money." Maggie Thatcher Incredible stats Wokexodus only increased in 2022-2023. When you tax your residents to death there will come a time when theres no one left to tax. https://t.co/D3nzr6RlcY Incredible stats Wokexodus only increased in 2022-2023. When you tax your residents to death there will come a time when theres no one left to tax."
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1739208438234615982) 2023-12-25T08:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"As a new @MarhelmData subscriber I fully approve of @calvinfroedge's veganivorous phase. If accepting requests I would like to see pics / vids of one being roasted on a spit. (Dietary note: vegans may not contain all required nutrients necessary to support human flourishing.) Personally I think vegans are basically carrots or beets. vegetable Personally I think vegans are basically carrots or beets. vegetable"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1739261905410085146) 2023-12-25T12:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Does this mean "we're so back" Or perhaps we never really left.in Jeremy we trust 🙏 $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL $DO [----] #offshore portfolio strategy $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO 1/1 https://t.co/w7WiHDuXkj [----] #offshore portfolio strategy $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO 1/1 https://t.co/w7WiHDuXkj"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1740016063360704732) 2023-12-27T14:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I don't disagree with your points - but it is still the case the US's history of getting into fights with hugely overmatched but extremely committed opponents has not ended well for the US. I also think the symmetry of warfare has changed hugely in favour of the underdog - so if the wars of the last couple decades were run again with today's tech it would work out MUCH worse for the US. Finally the US / West is getting soundly beaten in UKR by Russia. UKR army likely close to collapse & West has used up huge quantities of their available weapons stockpiles. I am quite sure Iran etc smell"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1741586342830555355) 2023-12-31T22:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@whirlybard Yes - I wonder if this is where things begin to spiral out of control"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1741912299919511945) 2024-01-01T20:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Have you thought perhaps you own too many stocks When I looked back at my performance I realised the most important controllable factor I could have improved would have been to go much harder into my clearly-identified-at-time very few tier [--] / best ideas. They don't always work out - but have much higher hit rate & % gains vs. rest. But everybody is different & I have missed out on the odd big winner in a small position. But over time my view of my 'job' as an investor has changed: I see it now as trying to get as much money as possible into my best ideas & ignore the rest. Which is also how"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1742125518193848489) 2024-01-02T10:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MugsLuck [--] year 6G DS contract in high $400k's = bad news down day. I can only conclude I'm too stupid to understand"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1742288058572300726) 2024-01-02T20:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MugsLuck Haha - I nearly asked why you even included as $440k still pretty good It might be ruined for you - but I'm chuffed I caught you 😎✨"
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1742288530540200330) 2024-01-02T20:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@mike_oil_invest @MugsLuck Yes I don't really mind: market doesn't care at the moment but it will eventually if the good news continues (as I think it will). As ever: reality fantasies (eventually)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1742325079688552478) 2024-01-02T23:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Could this explain the $RIG vs. $VAL valuation conundrum Value investors underappreciate that corporations which allocate capital effectively are worth a higher multiple. Value investors underappreciate that corporations which allocate capital effectively are worth a higher multiple"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1743227262701281296) 2024-01-05T11:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"My view is a little different vs. the 'obvious' one: $RIG is less risky & $VAL more so than their respective balance sheets / valuations imply. $RIG has better management who've shown great strategic vision (high graded & changed fleet to focus purely on UDW & HE) & survived downturn. $RIG also has by far best high spec fleet of major drillers (as @TommyDeepwater proved) + best contracts; this didn't happen by accident. It is hard to think about these factors properly because they're amorphous / not amenable to numerical quantification - but they're real & v important. $RIG's management have"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1743237960143671513) 2024-01-05T11:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@SoundVision16 @churnerofmarket Yes. At some point the difference gets too large - this is also why I own $VAL (smaller) $DO (medium) and $RIG (large) positions 💫"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1743242114186547254) 2024-01-05T12:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is a literal zoo of covid paranoiacs & god knows what other reality-dodging freaks. As @BankerWeimar said: no wonder major US cities are being ruined / destroyed. People like this have probably never done anything useful in their lives - but they want (passionately) to control your life with their ideologies. SAN FRANCISCO JUST VOTED 8-3 IN SUPPORT OF A CEASEFIRE RESOLUTION Its time for other cities to follow. ✊ https://t.co/HuSxSmahev SAN FRANCISCO JUST VOTED 8-3 IN SUPPORT OF A CEASEFIRE RESOLUTION Its time for other cities to follow. ✊ https://t.co/HuSxSmahev"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1745132361057005614) 2024-01-10T17:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$RIG vs. $VAL. Something that has stood out to me over the past 2-3 years as weve seen commodity-related companies rerate or adjust to a "new normal" of higher prices is the reluctance of many investors to acknowledge justified management discounts. Im sure many will disagree with me Something that has stood out to me over the past 2-3 years as weve seen commodity-related companies rerate or adjust to a "new normal" of higher prices is the reluctance of many investors to acknowledge justified management discounts. Im sure many will disagree with me"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1745461548708241584) 2024-01-11T15:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater @MugsLuck Is this genuinely from your Dad Tommy I assumed must be satire.but now I'm not sure 😆"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1745788460546273566) 2024-01-12T12:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"First capital markets day for $RIG since [----]. That's one of @KEDM_COM's newer monitors to flag for likely positive inflections. $RIG https://t.co/jYApIWtVap $RIG https://t.co/jYApIWtVap"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1746334498487177550) 2024-01-14T00:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"More top grade content from Tommy - thanks $RIG $NE $DO $SDRL $VAL $SEUSF $GALP.PL $RIG $VAL $TDW $NOL.OL Deepwater Update Jan [--] [----]. "The Permian of Offshore Namibia and South Africa" Following headline discoveries in Namibia from $TTE Venus-1X and $SHEL Graff-1X (and others) this week Galp Energia of Portugal announced its Mopane-1X https://t.co/WvL91u0Hrx $SEUSF $GALP.PL $RIG $VAL $TDW $NOL.OL Deepwater Update Jan [--] [----]. "The Permian of Offshore Namibia and South Africa" Following headline discoveries in Namibia from $TTE Venus-1X and $SHEL Graff-1X (and others) this week Galp Energia"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1746980970002010329) 2024-01-15T19:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I nominate @TommyDeepwater for most knowledgeable FinTwitter on offshore floater specs / detail. Truly amazing what you can get for free here. $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO @ICBarrett @mike_oil_invest 🤣I have a dayjob already but $RIG has underappreciated assets. Their Barents semisub contracted at a clean $465k dayrate and most people classify that as a "6G" rig but that misses so many important specs about that rig and its marketability. Their [--] Cat-D Semisubs ("6G") @ICBarrett @mike_oil_invest 🤣I have a dayjob already but $RIG has underappreciated assets. Their Barents semisub contracted at a"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1748103482811232449) 2024-01-18T22:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Interestingly vigorous rebuttal of Doomberg's 'we're in a period of energy abundance / NGLs are really oil' thesis. This was the only potential offshore / oil shortage thesis breaker I'd come across. $OIH $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL $DO "Doomberg has built his thesis of energy abundance on a house of cards. "All the cards in your energy abundance thesis have collapsed. Lets talk." LINK 👇 https://t.co/q4rxNMdIZY #energy #EnergyTransition #ClimateActionNow #renewables #NetZero #FossilFuels #OOTT #oilandgas https://t.co/peezSC6t48 "Doomberg has built his thesis of energy abundance on a house of cards."
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1748125376386154714) 2024-01-18T23:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Spot the difference Lee Kwan Yew & Charlie Munger: figure out what works & do it Joe Biden: figure out what doesn't work & do it Houthis hail 'direct confrontation' with U.S. Biden says airstrikes not working @CNBC Houthis hail 'direct confrontation' with U.S. Biden says airstrikes not working @CNBC"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1748419639447527585) 2024-01-19T18:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@GutievK @MugsLuck $VAL's DS-13 & DS-14 likely to go first: highly likley $VAL will have a lower contracting hurdle than $RIG's cold stacked reactivations. But ex-$RIG sidelined supply dwindling"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1748423173492674758) 2024-01-19T19:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$OIH $RIG $DO $VAL $SDRL $NE Another fab podcast interview with @CorneliaLake: v knowledgeable AND comes across as a thoroughly decent guy; thank you @AndrewRangeley. I don't agree with Judd over management though. Only sort of as Judd did say when you feel you need to write a letter to management you should prob just sell (and yes you should). When you feel you need to write the letter (assuming you're not an idiot) it's because management are either incompetent poor stewards - or both. The problem with writing letters is - even if you're successful in changing the local behaviour - they are"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1749444399946170730) 2024-01-22T14:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Remember: - Track records forecasts - Incentives = outcomes The 'health' industry is neither healthy nor your friend. From such examples I derived the rule that what is called healthy is generally unhealthy just as social networks are antisocial and the knowledge-based economy is typically ignorant. Taleb The "health" industry. Follow the money. If you were permanently healthy they'd be outta work The "health" industry. Follow the money. If you were permanently healthy they'd be outta work"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1749757824345813024) 2024-01-23T11:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MugsLuck (and @ArchiteuthisDx) - you have become famous (notorious). Obviously still a step below a cultist like me ✨ $RIG $NE $DO $SDRL $VAL"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1750193337686991210) 2024-01-24T16:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$RIG; past as prologue (h/t @Ultradeep3) EBITDA was 30B baht so the market cap was equal to one year's worth of EBITDA. Siam had roughly 130B baht in net debt so EV/EBITDA was 5x. So optically not that cheap on an EV basis. But the leverage meant that only a small rerating in EV/EBITDA would have a big effect on the EBITDA was 30B baht so the market cap was equal to one year's worth of EBITDA. Siam had roughly 130B baht in net debt so EV/EBITDA was 5x. So optically not that cheap on an EV basis. But the leverage meant that only a small rerating in EV/EBITDA would have a big effect on the"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1750250993957110145) 2024-01-24T20:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I'm sure outsourcing important government policy / decisions to 25-year-old social media influencer activists will get us the best results. Why aren't Russia & China doing this too - it obviously works so well ✨ NY Times on how White House arrived at decision to delay U.S. LNG terminal CP2 in Louisiana: "Ahead of the decision White House climate advisers met with activists like Alex Haraus a 25-year-old Colorado social media influencer who has led a TikTok and Instagram campaign NY Times on how White House arrived at decision to delay U.S. LNG terminal CP2 in Louisiana: "Ahead of the decision"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1750845613946921165) 2024-01-26T11:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@charlesbonnerjr Haha - yes but none of us here on our corner of FinTwit are reality-dodging 'normies'"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1750856149564325893) 2024-01-26T12:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater @CliffEngleLtd Do you have an opinion on this @NICKRADICAL4"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1752401025359646920) 2024-01-30T18:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Gringo gets it $RIG $VAL @hkuppy This is probably because - after initial reaction - people figured out reduced shallow investment by SA (which has zero impact on $RIG) will increase deepwater investment in Africa (which benefits $RIG). @hkuppy This is probably because - after initial reaction - people figured out reduced shallow investment by SA (which has zero impact on $RIG) will increase deepwater investment in Africa (which benefits $RIG)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1752466536126701937) 2024-01-30T22:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@offshoremayor (I do own some $DO & smaller $VAL as well as much larger $RIG position ✨)"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1752469533636370842) 2024-01-30T23:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"There is some truth in both of these positions (hence why I own smaller $VAL). However this discussion ignores $VAL management's previous poor capital allocation choices. (And don't @ me with $VAL has warm floaters on the water vs. $RIG's still cold stacked even though $VAL made no $ from their reactivations so far. That strategy to extent worked was completely dependent upon the other drillers holding their discipline or it would have lead to a dreadful race to bottom with DRs now much lower than current. We can't also see the counterfactual of what DRs would be NOW without $VAL's"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1752630339673915807) 2024-01-31T09:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"At $650k DRs $VAL's stock won't be anywhere near current price; neither will $RIG's or any of the other OSDs. Leveraging up in second 1/2 of upcycle (we'll be well into 2nd 1/2 by time we reach $650k DRs) in a highly cyclical industry is a proven way to wipe out your equity holders during the next downturn"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1752631478888911237) 2024-01-31T09:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Perhaps $PYPL shouldn't have tried to add T&Cs that would allow them to steal money from customer accounts if they didn't like their politics / public statements (then immediately denied & backtracked when blew up in their faces). Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch. #GoWokeGoBroke cc: @BankerWeimar @ElementaryValue January shaping up to be six digits and this is just one of many headlines to hit in the last four hours. PayPal to Cut Around [----] Jobs as Rivals Snag Market Share January shaping up to be six digits and this is just one of many headlines to hit in the last four hours. PayPal to Cut"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1752798887427940438) 2024-01-31T20:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Reality (doomer) fantasies $OIH $RIG $NE $VAL $DO $SDRL One more observation. Back in [----] I was also in Las Palmas (actually working on the Valaris restructuring & $rig debt situation). Back then there were a lot more rigs in lay up here big difference compared to today. One more observation. Back in [----] I was also in Las Palmas (actually working on the Valaris restructuring & $rig debt situation). Back then there were a lot more rigs in lay up here big difference compared to today"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1754214991748538764) 2024-02-04T18:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"All of the models that predict catastrophic global warming fail the key test of the scientific method: they grossly overpredict the warming versus actual data. Climate models such as the ones that the EPA is using have been consistently wrong for decades in predicting actual outcomes" It won't make any difference: science has nothing to do with 'climate change'. It is a toxic combination of grift & ideology. Remember: track records forecasts TWO LEADING PRINCETON MIT SCIENTISTS SAY EPA CLIMATE REGULATIONS BASED ON A HOAX: "William Happer professor emeritus in physics at Princeton University"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1754269763474252156) 2024-02-04T22:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Correct as per Taleb: From such examples I derived the rule that what is called healthy is generally unhealthy just as social networks are antisocial and the knowledge-based economy is typically ignorant. The Inflation Reduction Act was actually a trillion dollar spending bill. The border security bill is actually a mass amnesty. Just assume bills do the opposite of what they say. The Inflation Reduction Act was actually a trillion dollar spending bill. The border security bill is actually a mass amnesty. Just assume bills do the opposite of what they say"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1754531440966983723) 2024-02-05T15:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"It's not Cramer but I'll take what I can get Thank you @FT - are we close to oil sentiment bottom $OIH $RIG $NE $DO $VAL $SDRL @PodContrarian @ElementaryValue"
[X Link](https://x.com/ICBarrett/status/1754592621035393247) 2024-02-05T19:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing
@ICBarrett Baron of Ivy Grottage
Baron of Ivy Grottage posts on X about $rig, $val, $ne, $sdrl the most. They currently have [-----] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [----------] engagements in the last [--] hours.
Engagements: [----------] #
- [--] Week [----------] +889,862%
- [--] Month [----------] +2,692%
- [--] Months [----------] +33,501%
- [--] Year [----------] +16,433%
Mentions: [--] #
- [--] Week [--] +7.10%
- [--] Month [---] +80%
- [--] Months [---] +155%
- [--] Year [---] +59%
Followers: [-----] #
- [--] Week [-----] +2.40%
- [--] Month [-----] +1.80%
- [--] Months [-----] +12%
- [--] Year [-----] +34%
CreatorRank: [-------] #
Social Influence
Social category influence cryptocurrencies #7556 finance countries stocks technology brands social networks celebrities us election currencies travel destinations
Social topic influence $rig #12, $val #8, $ne #248, $sdrl #3, $oih #2, $do, $rigs, $tdw, rig #74, $gmx
Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @tommydeepwater @ultradeep3 @foamontherunway @mugsluck @ragingbullcap @sfarringtonbkc @traderferg @hkuppy @elementaryvalue @cornelialake @bankerweimar @offshoremayor @churnerofmarket @architeuthisdx @natgasturk @sayssimulation @almostmongolian @geologotrader @energyrealist25 @ottomaddox42
Top assets mentioned Transocean LTD. (RIG) Validity (VAL) Noble Corporation (NE) Seadrill Limited (SDRL) Tidewater, Inc. (TDW) GMX (GMX) Borr Drilling Limited (BORR) PolkaBridge (PBR) Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.-Petrobras (PBR.A) TotalEnergies SE (TTE) Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) Schlumberger NV (SLB)
Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours
"Any comments on this $PBR thread @calvinfroedge 1/ Thread on Petrobras.mostly notes from a review unstructured presentation but with a conclusion. Why look at PBR: After several years of operational missteps last decade Petrobras has looked like it was emerging as a viable turnaround story for the last few years. 1/ Thread on Petrobras.mostly notes from a review unstructured presentation but with a conclusion. Why look at PBR: After several years of operational missteps last decade Petrobras has looked like it was emerging as a viable turnaround story for the last few years"
X Link 2023-04-19T20:01Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"$RIG $VAL $OIH $PBR $PBR.A Petrobras is analyzing information it gathered from the latest drilling campaign. "Depending on that analysis MAYBE WE CAN SPEED UP (THE NEXT DRILLING CAMPAIGN). We are having a very good experience" Travassos said"
X Link 2023-05-02T09:05Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@CLODaily And has anyone else noticed $RIG are only one of major OSDs that provide previous DRs in the FSR so making comparisons much easier I've learned these things matter: they're often telling you something significant about the co & their attitude towards s/holders. 2/n $VAL $NE $DO"
X Link 2023-05-18T09:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@CorneliaLake @marginthinking [--] year contracts with [--] yr EBITDA payback on the ARO (Aramco / $VAL JV) newbuild jack ups. Defo agree the floater mkt quite different: doesn't appear to be a sniff of a newbuild order. Who would offer equivalent contracts on a new UDW"
X Link 2023-05-23T20:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@oracleof90402 @jimkenneyburner But we can see what that would take from model of ARO (Aramco / $VAL) JU orders: [--] year contracts with [--] yr EBITDA payback. $150k/day UDW opex. $1bn w 6yr EBITDA payback = $550k / day + opex = [--] yr $700k/day contract $1.2bn = $820k/day 1/n $OIH $RIG $NE $VAL $DO"
X Link 2023-05-24T10:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Fortunately the further they dig the clearer they will make it how much damage a biz can do to itself / how much most of society dislikes the poison they are peddling. Please dig yourself right into your grave $TGT"
X Link 2023-05-27T07:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OttoMaddox42 @TommyDeepwater @ArpatSood @Ultradeep3 @SeadrillLtd That may be true but we have those same shareholders shooting themselves in foot because not mentally agile enough to see what they should be pressing for (e.g. $VAL exercising DS options vs. returning cash). (I realise this may be too simplistic / harsh if mandates too tight.)"
X Link 2023-06-04T19:13Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OttoMaddox42 @TommyDeepwater @ArpatSood @Ultradeep3 @SeadrillLtd Fortunately $VAL etc largely shot their bolt with poor contracting strategy - so the adults ($RIG etc) are now in charge (which will of course also benefit the degenerates)"
X Link 2023-06-04T19:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@NICKRADICAL4 Agreed. My offshore thesis can be summarised: we need more oil offshore will be critical part of that supply we'll almost certainly need a new cycle of rig orders day rates will have to support that (& inevitably exceed for a period). No current order book $RIG $VAL $DO"
X Link 2023-06-04T19:47Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$RIG $VAL $NE $DO $OIH"
X Link 2023-06-05T07:48Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Even by Seeking Alpha's variable standards this $RIG article is truly dreadful❗ What is an eighth generation drill strip (And no $RIG has not significantly underperformed $VAL on a one year basis.)"
X Link 2023-06-29T20:11Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Hierony69122434 Yes there's still plenty of offshore investment PTSD to work through before generalists come back; that's still true for a lot of O&G generally - but esp offshore. I agree with @Laz_Cap. Just a matter of time before floater demand exceeds supply. $RIG $VAL $OIH $NE $DO 1/n"
X Link 2023-06-29T20:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 @Hierony69122434 @NICKRADICAL4 @Laz_Cap @trader_ferg @OttoMaddox42 @FoamOnTheRunway @ArchiteuthisDx @CorneliaLake I agree. And @Laz_Cap fair points but: 1) $VAL have been excoriated for their degen contracting & now too scared to even take up $218m option on DS [--] 2) If an 8G UDW was quoted at $550m in [----] & ended up actually costing $1bn is $1bn cost at all likely 1/n"
X Link 2023-06-15T12:03Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@KingKyl77163233 @churnerofmarket @TommyDeepwater Yes - and $RIG controls most of the stacked supply now that e.g. $VAL has shot its degen bolt"
X Link 2023-06-17T18:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@G_A_Wilson @TommyDeepwater Yes $PBR have been the positive floater market offset to the likes of $VAL giving away their drillships on trough breakeven contracts"
X Link 2023-06-18T17:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Imagine_Being__ @hkuppy @capitalistexp @kedm He had (has) a large position in $VAL bought just after relisting (& said at time). I'm interested in why Kuppy added to $TDW (he answered: sector consolidation) & also if he's adding to $VAL / other OSDs. I'd be especially interested in his thoughts on OSD management quality"
X Link 2023-06-19T08:32Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@hkuppy @Imagine_Being__ @capitalistexp @kedm My largest position (by far) is $RIG but I have also added to $VAL: think the lagging / hate got too much. I believe this cycle will feed everybody at the table. Do you mind me asking if you reallocated to $VAL - or just used spare / new cash coming in"
X Link 2023-06-19T11:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@hkuppy @Imagine_Being__ @capitalistexp @kedm Agreed. I would love to be a fly on the wall of contracting conversations / negotiations over $RIG's Invictus: https://twitter.com/TommyDeepwater/status/1669787809886904320 Deepwater Invictus is 7G [---] million lbs hook load [--] BOP's MPD ready. Contract rolls in July '23. An equity analyst with a $6 target on RIG has modeled a $452k rate on Invictus in 4Q23. Anxious to see where the dayrate shakes out on Invictus. I'm taking the over on $452k https://t.co/ZBblOPTBV9 https://twitter.com/TommyDeepwater/status/1669787809886904320 Deepwater Invictus is"
X Link 2023-06-19T11:58Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater The rigs themselves (esp floaters) just seem a lot easier / more obvious; why make it harder than it needs to be $RIG $VAL $NE $DO"
X Link 2023-06-23T12:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OnlyFol35201188 @ValueNotDeadYet Such a pile of 💩 And populace don't seem to connect it to inflation or zero increase in real wages / living standards for [--] years (UK)"
X Link 2023-06-23T18:59Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OnlyFol35201188 Interesting sentiment so awful but e.g. $RIG still +38% YTD (though -19% from high) & $DO +24% YTD & only -3% vs. year high (v interesting if breaks to new high). $VAL - for year but my $PBR.A (only v small position) also done well. Even my other v large position #YCA.L +8% YTD"
X Link 2023-06-27T11:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@BankerWeimar I'm old enough to remember when it was countries like Argentina Brazil Turkey etc got up to this 💩 🙄"
X Link 2023-06-29T20:45Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@FoamOnTheRunway Haha - I doubt not going 80% net into one stock is restraint If you include my $DO & $VAL positions I was 110% long OSDs yesterday I bet $RIG outperforms my few small lowish conviction positions though; but I don't want to go back to zero in event of big left tail blow up"
X Link 2023-06-30T19:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ShaiDardashti @TommyDeepwater @ArchiteuthisDx @CaptainRoyen @CorneliaLake @ed_fin @FoamOnTheRunway @Laz_Cap @marketplunger1 @MugsLuck @offshoremayor @OttoMaddox42 @ropeyyyy @SheDrills @Ultradeep3 I haven't bothered trying to do this Shai because I think about the problem differently (apologies if Im teaching granny to suck eggs). Also apologies for abusing my blue tick I learned from my time as a sell side analyst during fag end of tech / internet boom that trying"
X Link 2023-07-10T20:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@ShaiDardashti @TommyDeepwater @ArchiteuthisDx @CaptainRoyen @CorneliaLake @ed_fin @FoamOnTheRunway @Laz_Cap @marketplunger1 @MugsLuck @offshoremayor @OttoMaddox42 @ropeyyyy @SheDrills @Ultradeep3 7) Its difficult to imagine a world with consensus view newbuild floater orders must be placed - but I believe it's virtually inevitable. The huge gap between current consensus & that future world = source of continued outperformance of the offshore drillers. $OIH $RIG $VAL $NE"
X Link 2023-07-06T14:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 $350k $465k /day by my reckoning. Equinox Australia + contract extension seems to have done the trick nicely. Kudos to $RIG management (again). What're the chance the global weak spot would have been tightened like that if $VAL had been negotiating the contracts"
X Link 2023-07-06T16:21Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OttoMaddox42 Thanks Otto. I think huge majority of investors haven't grasped implications of no new supply vs. growing demand into a heavily rationalised fleet. This isn't even like coal: there is no new floater supply waiting to come online from non-western nations. $OIH $RIG $NE $VAL $DO"
X Link 2023-07-07T12:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"cc: @trader_ferg. I think this is an important difference even vs. the coal thesis: floater supply is both tighter AND more visible. I think only things that could properly derail offshore thesis are a big accident or a 2nd shale revolution (or equivalent). $OIH $RIG $NE $VAL $DO"
X Link 2023-07-07T12:48Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@ShaiDardashti @churnerofmarket @TommyDeepwater @ArchiteuthisDx @CaptainRoyen @CorneliaLake @ed_fin @FoamOnTheRunway @Laz_Cap @marketplunger1 @MugsLuck @offshoremayor @OttoMaddox42 @ropeyyyy @SheDrills @Ultradeep3 I have been 110% long a basket of $RIG / $DO / $VAL split 68:20:12 for a while now. No plans to sell yet"
X Link 2023-07-07T23:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater @ShaiDardashti @churnerofmarket @ArchiteuthisDx @CaptainRoyen @CorneliaLake @ed_fin @FoamOnTheRunway @Laz_Cap @marketplunger1 @MugsLuck @offshoremayor @OttoMaddox42 @ropeyyyy @SheDrills @Ultradeep3 Interesting. I just own common as all I can buy in tax advantaged accounts here in UK. I would prob have bought some $VAL warrants if could buy them in the accounts. I decided to just buy bigger positions (and somewhat lever up instead)"
X Link 2023-07-07T23:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@orrdavid @CorneliaLake Though $RIG is my largest position (by far) I do also own $DO & $VAL - and $PBR.A (though a small position). I actually agree with you that $VAL is likely to play catch up at some point"
X Link 2023-07-09T21:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@orrdavid @TommyDeepwater Yes I doubt v much we'll change either of our minds. But I thought your points re: other offshore drillers looking cheaper was a fair one: at some point relative value does matter. I much preferred $RIG vs. $VAL at start of year. But $RIG has outperformed by 70% since then"
X Link 2023-07-09T21:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @orrdavid @TommyDeepwater And @TommyDeepwater has pointed out there should be significant differences in implied value per rig if they are generating good cash at one company & a peer makes none over next 2-3 years. $RIG also should defo have a significant management premium vs. e.g. $VAL on top"
X Link 2023-07-09T21:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@abadessenc New movement needed #charlatans #bringbackNickRadical $RIG $BTU $VNO"
X Link 2023-07-09T21:42Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
""That's the real Saudi cut" If this is correct there'll be fireworks at some point Will ESG (finally) be toast $RIG $DO $NE $VAL"
X Link 2023-07-18T12:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Further evidence management quality matters - a lot. You love to see the way $RIG balanced their desire not to tie up rigs LT with current day rates vs. customer desire not to pay more now vs. optionality for $RIG's fleet. Beautifully done Roddie Horrible contrast for $VAL's management. $RIG Excellent contract for two reasons: - term in US GoM - operator giving $RIG flex wrt the drillship $RIG Excellent contract for two reasons: - term in US GoM - operator giving $RIG flex wrt the drillship"
X Link 2023-07-19T14:52Z [----] followers, 20.4K engagements
"@Steven_Cain_ Totally agree: at some point relative valuation must matter. $VAL's contracting performance will be dragged up by $RIG's & $NE's example"
X Link 2023-07-20T23:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater @MugsLuck @Ultradeep3 @_EnergyRealist @CorneliaLake Well said Tommy. At least $VAL's negative contribution to contracting discipline is declining & $RIG appears to understand their position properly. We should be bloody grateful $RIG's management hadn't behaved as $VAL's: I suspect day rates would be quite different (lower)"
X Link 2023-07-31T20:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I don't believe leopards change their spots: IMO by FAR best outcome (for whole floater industry) would be for $VAL management to be replaced with people who understand the unfolding offshore upcycle - and the great position the offshore drillers are in. (I speak as a $VAL"
X Link 2023-08-01T04:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"V encouraging call: we are lucky $RIG is leading the way with their smart contracting; contrast with $VAL (who have now fortunately largely shot their degenerate bolt). The offshore upcycle has outpaced the most optimistic predictions so far - I predict that will continue"
X Link 2023-08-01T16:32Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TeddyGambino Totally agree in the management themselves. But what I don't quite understand is why INVESTORS keep underweighting importance of good low ego management. For whatever reason I think it's a source of enduring competitive advantage for those investors who can weight it properly"
X Link 2023-08-03T15:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 @offshoremayor @_CaptainLuke Fortunately $VAL's influence on incremental supply is much reduced"
X Link 2023-08-06T20:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Eventually $VAL makes the correct - and blindingly obvious - choice (under pressure)"
X Link 2023-08-07T19:17Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Do you deserve plaudits just for getting the basics right Well done $DO for getting your presentation ready for your Q2 earnings call; I wonder why $VAL couldn't I predict $RIG management will continue making smart choices / decisions & $VAL will do opposite. Track records forecasts $OIH $NE"
X Link 2023-08-08T12:10Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"The insane part of this (and damning indictment of $VAL's management) is they were talking only at Q1s as if they'd be smart NOT to take up these options At recent Q2s they'd done a [---] & erased all memory of their previous position. $VAL management can't be trusted. $OIH $RIG $NE $DO"
X Link 2023-08-09T11:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater Agreed. It is becoming too obvious what $VAL should be doing: I doubt they are ideological - just strategically poor (and to be fair perhaps not helped by short term focus from post BK shareholder base). This cycle will very likely lift all boats"
X Link 2023-08-09T12:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Agree: I preferred $RIG & position now relatively even larger due to recent outperformance. But I also own $DO & $VAL. I was pretty sure $RIG would outperform $VAL from relative stock prices / market caps at start of year; much more nuanced now. At some point $VAL will outperform - at least for a while. No room for ideology in successful investing"
X Link 2023-08-09T14:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @AAlsome1 @Ultradeep3 I'm not bothered: short of some serious left tail shock it's coming. Don't forget how well the offshore sector (ex $VAL) has already performed year to date: it's ALREADY happening. Though the consensus doesn't yet reflect how far it is (very) likely to go. $OIH $RIG $NE $DO"
X Link 2023-08-09T14:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"None of $VAL's historic accounting figures are of much use inc NAV. I share @hkuppy's view that at some point it will prob trade replacement cost otherwise no new rig supply will ever be incentivised. (I am a firm believer a new offshore floater order cycle will be required though.)"
X Link 2023-08-09T14:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I would guess 5x for $VAL as @hkuppy said here. I've gone with offshore floaters as I think the supply / demand situation is v unusually & radically in favour of current equity holders. Absolutely critical & non-fungible long life assets undersupplied & no possibility new supply for prob [--] years. $RIG $NE $DO"
X Link 2023-08-10T11:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ElementaryValue @Ultradeep3 Thanks David / UD: I've long thought that investors have not assigned the correct value to $RIG's [--] 8Gs - with unique capabilities delivered at this stage of the cycle & a long runway of "monopoly". They are worth $2.5bn cost imo (this will be revealed in time). 1/n"
X Link 2023-08-11T12:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$RIG is no doubt already in serious contract negotiations for Atlas for [----] campaign start. But they know its worth & I v much doubt will let go cheap. Atlas's next contract will be a v important cycle marker. Just as well $VAL not in charge of contract negotiations 2/n *$2.25bn cost"
X Link 2023-08-11T12:29Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @DevoutDriller @ElementaryValue @Ultradeep3 They might all drop as investors don't want newbuilds (yet). But there is virtually ZERO chance of $VAL announcing a newbuild anytime soon. They've only JUST got their heads around taking up the more expensive of their yard rig options DS-14 for only $218m"
X Link 2023-08-11T13:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fab detail from the Mayor 🙏 $RIG Titan & Atlas 8Gs = semi-monopoly. Forthcoming Atlas contract critical cycle marker. $VAL $NE $DO I had a few wells that couldnt be completed because the capabilities of my rig were maxed out (pressure was too high). Theres a lot of window dressing when it comes to specs on new rigs. 90% of the upgrades listed on new-build dont really improve efficiency or enhance the I had a few wells that couldnt be completed because the capabilities of my rig were maxed out (pressure was too high). Theres a lot of window dressing when it comes to specs on new rigs. 90% of"
X Link 2023-08-11T18:36Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Enjoyed $VAL (deservedly) getting the boot: "It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Valaris is being driven with the handbrake on." $OIH $RIG $NE $DO"
X Link 2023-08-14T18:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@OttoMaddox42 @Ultradeep3 That's like saying I'd rather be slapped than punched (I do enjoy a spot of $VAL kicking - great hobby that keeps on giving 🌟) I think of $VAL as the aliens who have infiltrated & taken over: they watch $RIG & try to copy but they don't really know what they should be doing"
X Link 2023-08-14T20:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @CliffEngleLtd Don't forget Churner we can be pretty sure demand continues to increase - and now with a delightful tinge of FOMO. $VAL has one reactivation & two strandeds they can (& prob will) undersell. 1/n $OIH $NE $DO"
X Link 2023-08-15T08:04Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @CliffEngleLtd Don't forget only way to get (heavily lagged) increased supply is for day rates to EXCEED newbuild parity for long enough to force new orders. Most people don't think it will happen - but far more likely than not imo; this is NOT the end of the cycle. 3/n $OIH $RIG $VAL $NE $DO"
X Link 2023-08-15T08:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"This is why I like $RIG of the offshore drillers (you only need to listen to last few conf calls vs. competition & see what actually happened vs. what they said). We are privileged to have $RIG leading industry. If $VAL had more discipline DRs would be much higher; if $RIG were like $VAL they'd be much lower"
X Link 2023-08-15T15:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@offshoremayor @NatgasTurk *Except $VAL"
X Link 2023-08-16T18:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Judd is bang on with this. The offshore floater market is very unusually transparent: [---] floaters globally most offshore drill co's public & report quarterly + qly FSRs + most contracts significant enough = announceable in between. Plus certainty of no unknown new supply coming out of woodwork. Perfectly possible to have a general mkt view managements beaten by ESG wrong post BK investor class etc. E.g. they mostly still talk as if another floater newbuild cycle will never happen; IMO it is MUCH more likely than not. Prediction: in a couple of years everyone will talk about the inevitability"
X Link 2023-08-18T21:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@OnlyFol35201188 @WinstonV99 I think $TGA looks interesting here too: lot of negativity in price + high net cash. Too much political stupidity still for energy crisis / problems to have actually been fixed. As @trader_ferg says: coal is the short term fallback for results of stupid energy / grid policies"
X Link 2023-08-21T11:10Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Judd on the money again: "You can still buy the entire offshore universe at well under 5.0x EBITDA on $450k terminal rates.stunning in our view.""
X Link 2023-08-21T13:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Lee has been consistently correct re: UKR / Russia situation. Remember the mental model is: Track records forecasts Listen to @LeeBTConsulting; disregard Western govt / media. We now see public acknowledgements of this war's ghastly human toll along with hints that Ukraine cannot win militarily (which was always the case.) This is the start of the pivot I described six months ago in Rubble and Rhetoric: Many People Died for Nothing. Heres the We now see public acknowledgements of this war's ghastly human toll along with hints that Ukraine cannot win militarily (which was always the case.)"
X Link 2023-08-21T13:08Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"@MugsLuck @offshoremayor @Ultradeep3 Yes were you referring to more than just stock price action Mayor Do you have some major new negative industry info to tell us"
X Link 2023-08-24T18:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Phew Apologies if advice unwanted (in which case just ignore) but I wouldn't get too bothered about price action (e.g. in $RIG). You must be amongst the best of us to understand the offshore drilling cycle & where we likely are in that - from your personal experience. Finding a really good set up & sitting tight to properly harvest rewards is where the true money is in stock investing; not trading"
X Link 2023-08-24T18:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater @Old_Skool_Funk Forgot to ask why you think $DO has under-appreciated asset value Tommy"
X Link 2023-08-27T20:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I bet Tommy is right 👇 $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO"
X Link 2023-08-29T17:55Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OnlyFol35201188 That's an interesting way of putting it. Obvious answer is no; however the point is effectively moot as a rig ordered today wouldn't show up for 3-5 years (bet it would be closer to 5+ as no new floater orders have been placed since [----] - so no one geared up for it). So there"
X Link 2023-08-29T18:01Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@LeeBTConsulting @BankerWeimar @imetatronink Totally agree: memory holing / totally avoiding responsibility for what they strongly proposed / supported is their way. Did you watch Tuckers interview with Orban Lee Orban made the exact same point you made above re: US"
X Link 2023-08-31T16:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Bear in mind that true inflation reported figures (as the chart below clearly implies). I think more likely than not they'll have to change the Y-axis scale (upwards) in due course. $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO"
X Link 2023-09-03T14:30Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 @Laz_Cap @MSVCap $VAL tithe for the whole industry"
X Link 2023-09-03T15:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater More correct to say $VAL management have zero credibility on strategic view of offshore cycle Still gradually withdrawing (& memory holing) their previous dreadful takes on: bottom cycle breakeven reactivations + forced (through investor ridicule) to take up DS-13 & DS-14"
X Link 2023-09-05T21:29Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater I'm always suspicious of consensus. Everyone thinks (or says) a newbuild offshore floater cycle either won't happen - or not for a long time. Why can't the surprising strength of this OSD upcycle continue - or even accelerate into a squeeze $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO"
X Link 2023-09-05T21:35Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"$RIG deliberately fought very hard through the downturn to still take delivery of their two uniquely capable 8Gs Atlas & Titan. As I've said repeatedly they're extremely valuable delivered at this stage of cycle; almost certainly worth $2.25bn cost. Don't forget Atlas"
X Link 2023-09-06T08:40Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@churnerofmarket (That's for both by the way)"
X Link 2023-09-06T09:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Great write up Tommy - my fave so far I think (though I might be a bit biased 💫) $RIG $RIG $OIH Deepwater Weekly Update Sept [--] [----]. Barclays CEO Conference Summary Part [--] of [--]. "The Quarterback of Offshore Drilling" $SDRL $DO $VAL $NE All did well at Barclays but Jeremy Thigpen of $RIG lit up the room with his confidence and charisma. Management matters. https://t.co/OHMR0HJwBY $RIG $OIH Deepwater Weekly Update Sept [--] [----]. Barclays CEO Conference Summary Part [--] of [--]. "The Quarterback of Offshore Drilling" $SDRL $DO $VAL $NE All did well at Barclays but Jeremy Thigpen of $RIG lit up the"
X Link 2023-09-10T21:22Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Important correction: Offshore wind SHOULD be dead. I don't think they'll give it up that easy though: all the articles in UK mainstream press I've read make it sound like we MUST have more wind power to save us boiling & we should be willing to pay any price. cc: @OldWhiteWalker"
X Link 2023-09-10T21:31Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@churnerofmarket I don't agree MC: there was perhaps a genuine case to consider $VAL's position when they began reactivating on breakeven contracts at the lows. As @hkuppy put it: 'stacked ships become scrapped ships' & we didn't know how long we had to wait. But $RIG's patience / reading of"
X Link 2023-09-10T21:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@NatgasTurk @MugsLuck That's true - but $VAL's managerial discount prob only close on a 'passive' basis (i.e. where they get dragged up with the cycle). Unfortunately the same poor management is in charge so they will prob continue to make sub-optimal decisions. Track records forecasts $RIG $VAL"
X Link 2023-09-12T08:50Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OnlyFol35201188 Jeff Currie is the contemporary Tony Dye of the oil / energy market (Tony Dye refused to buy tech stocks in UK in late 90's - fired just before internet bust) https://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/tony-dye-controversial-fund-manager-796811.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/tony-dye-controversial-fund-manager-796811.html"
X Link 2023-09-12T19:56Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@MugsLuck Nothing personal Ed I hope so: more consolidation is a significant part of my more bullish case scenarios 🤑 Removal / replacement of $VAL management would also be helpful. $RIG 💒 $SDRL $DO $VAL $NE"
X Link 2023-09-14T18:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Judd is bang on: even according to $RIG (who planned v well for the upturn & said publicly - though obliquely - expected $600k+ DRs eventually) the strength of the upturn has surprised everybody so far. Why would you suddenly expect them to become superforecasters $VAL $SDRL $NE $DO"
X Link 2023-09-17T19:58Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"All are / were generally believed; all wrong; all great sources of alpha: Covid = existential threat Vax = safe & effective Climate change = existential threat with anthropomorphic cause CO2 = pollutant Wind & solar can power modern economy Fossil fuel demand will peak this"
X Link 2023-09-17T22:34Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@OttoMaddox42 Exactly. I'm convinced this is part of reason e.g. $RIG's fleet status reports are so much more transparent than competitors: they want to drag everyone else (yes $VAL looking at you 👀) up with them without any direct / overt cartel actions"
X Link 2023-09-17T23:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @Trading_Sunset Where do you get your ideas from Philip $OXY acquiring $RIG makes about as much sense as your ongoing "not profitable / no interest" on $RIG & your accompanying puzzlement as it continues to outperform"
X Link 2023-09-18T10:43Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater @ProvenReserves Yes Tommy is more polite than me. You are embarrassing yourself with your ill informed $RIG / Aquila nitpicking @ProvenReserves (though I understand you may be just deliberately fanning controversy for engagement)"
X Link 2023-09-18T10:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Extended offshore upcycle anyone $RIG $VAL $SDRL $NE $DO"
X Link 2023-09-18T23:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Every offshore driller investor should thank $RIG for their contracting discipline / strategy: if they'd used $VAL's playbook day rates would be much lower now (and vice versa). $RIG for the win. Day rates have led utilization 🔥 https://t.co/wK88PJBU7F $RIG for the win. Day rates have led utilization 🔥 https://t.co/wK88PJBU7F"
X Link 2023-09-20T18:49Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Jeff Currie's sacrifice saved us all 🙏 $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO $OIH"
X Link 2023-09-21T11:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"They will make themselves 26.5% poorer. Don't they know of the almost perfect correlation between energy use & GDP growth The new law called The Energy Efficiency Act would regulate energy savings in public buildings industry and data centers in hopes of reducing energy consumption by 26.5% by [----] compared to [----]. https://t.co/MYc215RKOV https://t.co/jxxLLCHr9d The new law called The Energy Efficiency Act would regulate energy savings in public buildings industry and data centers in hopes of reducing energy consumption by 26.5% by [----] compared to [----]. https://t.co/MYc215RKOV"
X Link 2023-09-21T22:09Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"This is a great way of thinking of how far off newbuild floater orders we are. (I still think rates will eventually incentivise - but enjoy the cash flow gushing gap in between everybody). $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO"
X Link 2023-09-22T20:34Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"2% of portfolio split over [--] stocks: is this an allocation for ants"
X Link 2023-09-24T20:34Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"OSVs / PSVs vs. floating drillships Floater demand slower to ramp - but no new supply anywhere on horizon $TDW $RIG $DO $NE $SDRL $VAL"
X Link 2023-09-25T14:12Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"He's not really vague if you read his stuff over a period of time (+ I've been a @KEDM_COM subscriber). His fave current trade is uranium. He also loves offshore. And $JOE. U & offshore critical & non fungible = massive inflation beneficiaries. And supply short for both anyway - so do well even without inflation. I have literally been 100% invested in only uranium & offshore myself for months (though I've preferred $RIG to $VAL unlike @hkuppy)"
X Link 2023-09-26T13:38Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Offshore floating drillships vs. OSVs $TDW $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO"
X Link 2023-09-27T21:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I'd like to report a murder: ESG killed German manufacturing. Mark's right: Germans prob have a v short window to reverse course on nuclear - before eventually realising in a few years they're semi-permanently poorer & much less important. Unfortunately here in UK we blew up"
X Link 2023-09-27T22:18Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@MugsLuck Love this: Seadrill was able to obtain a dividend yield valuation and attracted an investor base focussed on dividends. .wait for it (drum roll).prior to bankruptcy 💫 (I think there could be a lesson there somewhere)"
X Link 2023-09-28T18:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Agree: I would like to see more consolidation. It's happening slowly anyway ($RIG's Aquila buy out $VAL taking up DS-13 & DS-14 options etc). But would be great to see something more significant. I hope $RIG can gain control of some other rigs. Still don't like $VAL's management but even so like consolidation"
X Link 2023-09-28T18:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks Mayor - I do like hearing your insider takes Are we correct though to evaluate current management based upon the poor decisions made by prior management a decade ago at the fag end of previous upcycle Based upon current / recent management activities it is $VAL who've been making suboptimal decisions (though improving). Do you still hear of operational shortcomings re: Seadrill"
X Link 2023-09-29T09:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@CoterieDan @puppyeh1 But the dreadful yield tells you the cap gains have ALREADY happened; sooner or later reality will catch up with that gross rental yield vs. current interest rates. It can take a long time (e.g. Japan in late '80s) but happens eventually when prices get totally out of whack"
X Link 2023-10-02T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Overall conclusion correct but there are a couple of major fails in article: 1) No mention of EROI: single most important factor 2) Nuclear only very expensive because we've made it so - not through its intrinsic characteristics (evidenced by much lower build costs / times elsewhere) If gas is to be replaced by electricity to heat homes and offices and if petrol and diesel vehicles are to be phased out peak electricity demand is estimated to treble even if Rishi Sunak has now delayed both initiatives. https://t.co/QrCp4tk6y5 If gas is to be replaced by electricity to heat homes and offices"
X Link 2023-10-03T15:54Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"Listen to Tommy everyone; esp the last bit My prediction: offshore floater day rates will surprise the hell out of all the non-thinking normies who've not grasped the coming tsunami effect of ESG-led under investment into growing oil demand & structurally undersupplied offshore rigs. $RIG $VAL $NE $DO $SDRL"
X Link 2023-10-04T08:06Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I think I might be a gloater boy AND an offshore cultist My parents must have gone wrong somewhere. $RIG $DO $NE $SDRL $VAL (Seriously though I think @ArchiteuthisDx the peacemaker is right: we're all really on the same team ✨)"
X Link 2023-10-04T17:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Q: how can you tell the "greens" / environmentalists aren't really green A: they're anti-nuclear (inc already build nuclear) You don't need any other information"
X Link 2023-10-05T16:30Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Is it different this time Consolidation at beginning of upcycle + no order book for offshore: are we going to the promised land $RIG $NE $DO $VAL $SDRL This consolidation is happening (IN MY OPINION) at the beginning of an upcycle not at the end (which is what usually happens). Grab some popcorn folks the next two years are going to be awesome and interesing. This consolidation is happening (IN MY OPINION) at the beginning of an upcycle not at the end (which is what usually happens). Grab some popcorn folks the next two years are going to be awesome and interesing"
X Link 2023-10-06T13:11Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
"Globex Mining Enterprises $GMX.TO mentioned in The Mining Speculator. I speak for around 0.75% of $GMX (0.3% personally)"
X Link 2023-10-06T19:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I hope the offshore wind industry goes the way of the dinosaurs. 'Green transition' = Great Green Grift It has no basis in reality on multiple levels: wind & solar can never be of systemic use due to v low firmed EROI CO2 is not a pollutant etc"
X Link 2023-10-09T14:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Another instance in the journey of my 'waking up': the whole vet / vet food industry is just as rotten as the human medical / pharmaceutical industry. Once you start to use the right heuristics / mental models it becomes much easier to spot / predict these. The correct ones here are: what did we / our pets evolve to eat & what are the incentives around something quite different being sold to us as better for them"
X Link 2023-10-09T20:03Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is a good take from The Nat Gas Turk: bet he's right. Track records forecasts $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL $DO"
X Link 2023-10-18T17:36Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Remember this next time: Western media has an abusive relationship with truth / reality over everything important ('climate change' / covid / UKR -Russia). You are naive if you don't expect same re: Israel / Hamas. Track records forecasts"
X Link 2023-10-19T11:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"If this report is correct re: $VAL's inability to shake their degen contracting addiction with DS-13 & DS-14 it will take $RIG to be disciplined for that bit longer to tighten the mkt back up. Just imagine if $VAL had also been in charge of $RIG's stacked capacity: DRs would be MUCH lower (& vice versa). Is Anton secretly on the payroll of the oil majors / NOCs Remember: track records forecasts $NE $SDRL $DO"
X Link 2023-10-20T21:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater Will be v interesting to see if rumours correct; if so $VAL management insane & worthy of contempt"
X Link 2023-10-20T21:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Agreed: $RIG have planned to cope with judicious mix of contract term & debt management. They'll be fine. $VAL got two more shots to waste with DS-13 & DS-14; & only took up the options under severe external pressure / ridicule. If the rumours on contract DRs are correct shows Anton never really believed in the cycle: couldn't bear to have the new DSs potentially idle"
X Link 2023-10-20T21:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@TheDriller11 Well if this is correct re: $VAL (I do think we need to be wary until / if confirmed) you will certainly have got the shorter term call right. Medium+ term well see if we have enough floating rigs; I doubt it"
X Link 2023-10-21T09:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Thanks Ed. 39:25 Bob Robotti quotes $SDRL CEO OSD going to look like Cuban cab business: no one is going to order a new $1bn drillship with such uncertainty over demand in a decade $RIG $VAL $SDRL $NE $DO"
X Link 2023-10-22T21:22Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@CorneliaLake Maybe you should have quit to buy $BX at $5"
X Link 2023-10-22T21:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Could whoever took Anton's balls pls return them so we can all live happily ever after in offshore; failing that could Jeremy lend him one of his as he seems to have plenty spare 🍒 $VAL $RIG $NE $SDRL $DO"
X Link 2023-10-23T15:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Can you invite the offshore drillers to the orgy pls Judd 🙏 $RIG $VAL $SDRL $NE $DO"
X Link 2023-10-26T20:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Let's hope enough of the drillers hold the line (and yes I'm 👀 at you $VAL) $RIG $NE $SDRL $DO"
X Link 2023-10-29T21:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@valuehurts @ElementaryValue I should prob keep my mouth shut & not be an annoying wind up merchant We'll prob share at some point in future: illiquid & still accumulating"
X Link 2023-10-29T23:09Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Great commentary as usual Judd. Just shows how much alpha available to anyone who can look further out than a few Q's. Most investors / traders just won't - either through inclination / temperament or investment / fund structure. Buffett wasn't wrong: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." $RIG"
X Link 2023-10-31T15:20Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TRN57523902 @TommyDeepwater I think they will be eventually. They have greatly benefitted from capital ill discipline from the drillers in past. As @CorneliaLake puts it: there is no order book (and no prospect of one either). $RIG $NE $DO $SDRL $VAL"
X Link 2023-10-31T17:32Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Read this from Judd. If you believe in the cycle all that remains is to be patient. I have not read anything credible that suggests cycle is dead: we will need that oil & gas despite what the ESGers would have us believe. $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO"
X Link 2023-11-01T10:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"I am not impressed with this analysis of the results for the 3rd Qt. for Transocean $RIG"
X Link 2023-11-01T13:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 Yes I thought this was great: very clear obvious logic hard to disagree. I suppose without all the bipolar investor behaviour there wouldn't be good opportunities for the (actual) long term investor - so shouldn't complain 💫 $NE $RIG $VAL $DO"
X Link 2023-11-02T12:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Fab post cc: @LeeBTConsulting @BankerWeimar"
X Link 2023-11-02T20:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@BankerWeimar @LeeBTConsulting Oh I totally agree with you: Zelensky (and Ukraine in general) have been royally shafted by the West. Track records forecasts (as you say)"
X Link 2023-11-02T23:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I was busy today & only read / listened to $DO & $VAL Q3 calls - not caught up on my Twitter yet this eve. I'm not invested in any of the OSV companies - missed that boat I would think @CorneliaLake would be your man for $TDW commentary / analysis. I added (v small as out of firepower & way oversized already) to $RIG today at lows ($6.36) - if any use re: my personal views. (I'm not particularly impressed with the I told you so guy re: his $RIG commentary where I think I do understand situation reasonably well.) I've listened to $RIG $NE $DO & $VAL Q3 calls & I've not heard anything to"
X Link 2023-11-07T21:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 @OnlyFol35201188 @CorneliaLake It seems that way - in theory anyway - let's see if they practice what they preach Though I wouldn't have guessed it would be $VAL out of the major OSDs who'd make a comment / dig like that at investors' unrealistic expectations: perhaps the worm really has turned $VAL🪱🔄"
X Link 2023-11-08T09:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@variance_swap @AlmostMongolian @OnlyFol35201188 We haven't invested enough due to the ESG brigade / US shale. I have been (and continue to) hang out in the offshore drillers: they don't even need higher oil prices to do v well - that would just be gravy"
X Link 2023-11-08T19:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Barclays modelling $500k/day peak day rate for UPSIDE case; is this an upside case for ants $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO"
X Link 2023-11-14T00:01Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Marcus is not wrong If something must happen; it will $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO"
X Link 2023-11-14T16:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MugsLuck @TommyDeepwater @offshoremayor Haha - that would be great but I severely doubt Anton would vacate the throne to the pretender Bernie from smaller $DO. And would any $VAL shareholder group be interested / able to push that through It would be hugely positive for industry though"
X Link 2023-11-16T10:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Yes please if the offshore driller gods are listening 🙏 $VAL $DO $RIG $NE $SDRL"
X Link 2023-11-16T10:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"On a more serious note I don't understand how one can be so bullish floater supply vs demand imbalance but hate $RIG: @hkuppy has been massively helped in his $VAL investment by $RIG's contracting discipline (though admittedly one could argue $RIG also simply didn't have funds for reactivations). I listened to him recently and the way he squares that circle is to assume $RIG's reactivation costs / time will be so high / long they cannot be economic no matter what the DRs on offer (he recently referred to reactivation costs of $400-500m per vessel now or $600-700m in another 2-3 years: time"
X Link 2023-11-18T10:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @TaviCosta @contrarian8888 @ElementaryValue I have found a great way to play it - but an illiquid microcap & I'm still accumulating - so keeping quiet for time being"
X Link 2023-11-18T19:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Lars57360069 @churnerofmarket I don't either & it's a fair point: I bet the Saudis didn't expect oil $80 after maintaining fairly deep cuts"
X Link 2023-11-18T19:39Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"I'm baffled if you really think $VAL is best run of the OSDs It is not just me / these other guys here on FinTwit who think $VAL have regularly put their foot in it. Judd didn't post this because we're all imagining the issues: Though I do concede if this mid-cycle lull continues for a significant period $VAL may accidentally have got themselves into a decent position. Accidentally because: 1) There was no articulated strategy & e.g. they had to do an embarrassing public reverse ferret over taking up DS-13 & DS-14 yard options & 2) They gave the dreadfully priced options on top of the initial"
X Link 2023-11-19T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@ElementaryValue @Edark94 I saw that: damn glad to be able to swerve all that brain damage"
X Link 2023-11-21T14:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"How odd I've only been blocked by two people: Magnesium Papi & Josh Young @TaviCosta Gold is back above $2000. The next move for the metal is to break out from a triple-top formation. Precious metals have never been this close to a third cycle. If so two important assets are poised to become major beneficiaries: Silver with a historically high [--] gold-to-silver ratio 📷 The overlooked underappreciated and unloved mining industry currently valued at a fraction of its historical valuations"
X Link 2023-11-22T08:41Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@Ultradeep3 Are we going to survive"
X Link 2023-11-23T19:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@NatgasTurk Yes a reality dodging blocker is not the best indicator in a fund manager"
X Link 2023-11-24T20:24Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@MugsLuck @oilgastourist Ed's got it: bad news = bearish; good news also = bearish. Not sure Also bearish. $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL $DO"
X Link 2023-11-28T23:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@JosefMichaels And you can even buy physical uranium at a 10% discount to current spot price (NAV) via Yellow Cake $YCA.L"
X Link 2023-11-29T00:53Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Highly disturbing Did you read this article This is bonkers (Sweden similar): "in the last twenty years Ireland has added about 30% to its population most of that through migration. To get a sense of how traumatic this is to a country with such a small population it would be as if the United States added roughly [---] million people to its population in only two decades. And America is far more culturally and ethnically diverse than Ireland meaning it has the experience and flexibility to deal with immigration that Ireland through no fault of its own does not.""
X Link 2023-11-29T00:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Ed's got to the crux of the matter: "If reactivations start it should be from bullish demand if not it's tight" Does that mean offshore is developing into an each way bet. $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO"
X Link 2023-11-29T16:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Ed has morphed into the Oracle of Offshore: plugged straight into the source (obvs comes through with some static - hence tricky for us mere mortals to understand 💫) $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO"
X Link 2023-12-02T18:54Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"This explains why your electricity bills keep going up despite greater penetration of "cheapest" wind & solar. Reality = undefeated"
X Link 2023-12-04T17:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Judd's point here works in reverse too: you have to do your own thinking at the inflections. $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO"
X Link 2023-12-08T22:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Hi Mayor. That's exactly why the deepwater sector likely to do v well in future: BECAUSE it bled for years. It's a feature - not a bug - of the thesis. Unless you think the deepwater oil won't be needed the depth & duration of the 2014-21 downturn is likely to - at least roughly - indicate the shape / magnitude of following upcycle. $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO"
X Link 2023-12-09T10:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"GET YOUR BLUE TICK PEOPLE❗ Judd is bang on: uncensored Twitter is EXTREMELY important for the direction of the western democracies. I don't think it would be hyperbole to refer to it as existential. It could easily be decisive at the next US election - and probably would have been at the last: just imagine the Hunter Biden laptop story getting properly aired before / during the election - rather than covered up with the connivance of the press & intelligence agencies. Look at what is happening with Irish hate speech laws right now: this is what they want to do everywhere. I knew they would"
X Link 2023-12-09T11:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"What should I do if I can't stop my solar doubts Will a battery help me too"
X Link 2023-12-19T00:37Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@charlesbonnerjr I could have warned you Charles 😆 I favour $RIG (apparently I'm a particularly egregious example of a $RIG cultist); but also own $DO & $VAL (though significantly smaller size)"
X Link 2023-12-19T14:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Finally got around to listening to @TommyDeepwater: just as good as I'd hoped I've swapped a few DMs with Tommy; not only is he highly knowledgeable about the offshore floater space I'm pretty sure he is one of the good guys ✨ $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO Honoured to host @TommyDeepwater on his first podcast. We cover his research into the offshore oil industry & why it's in the early stages of a raging bull market. $RIG $TDW $VAL $NE https://t.co/am7moNHi2P Honoured to host @TommyDeepwater on his first podcast. We cover his research into the offshore oil industry & why it's in the early stages of"
X Link 2023-12-19T23:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"So we have @hkuppy on one side vs. an independent tag team of @Ultradeep3 & @TommyDeepwater on the other side - both having previously worked as credit analysts. I know which side my $ is on (and it actually is: $RIG my largest position though I also own some $VAL). You can do your own rough check on a common sense basis using mental model (this approach works v well for me; FAR better than spreadsheets). DRs have doubled from the lows & continue rising e.g. in HE (where $RIG is strong) $RIG's average fleet DR is guaranteed to continue rising they've taken the pain of Atlas & Titan capex /"
X Link 2023-12-20T14:27Z [---] followers, 29K engagements
""Ultimately with the ever-tightening supply/demand balance costly reactivation and new construction economics as well as inflationary pressures Westwood expects dayrates to continue their northward trajectory in [----] across the board." $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO RigLogix currently records a total of [--] tendersout in the market with a start date in [----] that have a firm duration of 2-5 yearsincluding those with start dates in 2025/2026 this figure increases to [--] $OIH $RIG $NE $VAL https://t.co/RpFbh4Cnw2 RigLogix currently records a total of [--] tendersout in the market with a start date in 2024"
X Link 2023-12-20T14:45Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@FoamOnTheRunway @hkuppy @Ultradeep3 @TommyDeepwater Haha - sorry I don't know why Kuppy wants to keep banging this tired old drum"
X Link 2023-12-20T14:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@churnerofmarket @hkuppy @Ultradeep3 @TommyDeepwater Oh blimey: I forgot Nick (may he RIP wherever he is). Kuppy is formidable: but up against the $RIG wolfpack.I don't think so"
X Link 2023-12-20T14:55Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@marginofdanger @hkuppy @Ultradeep3 @TommyDeepwater There's enough torque in them for me & I am comfortable with $RIG management & asset positioning; I have bought something much smaller & off radar for my PM / other commods exposure"
X Link 2023-12-20T16:04Z [----] followers, [---] engagements
"@UnironicOilBull @FoamOnTheRunway @hkuppy @Ultradeep3 @TommyDeepwater That IS how he behaves: Kuppy recently said $VAL had best management & best assets 🤯 He may literally be the only offshore investor thinks $VAL has best management (if he does actually think that - rather than just saying it)"
X Link 2023-12-20T16:10Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Haha - I already said you're too nice Tommy 😆 Don't worry I'm not actually bothered: but I do think Kuppy is being silly & embarrassing himself with his pro- $VAL / anti- $RIG maximalist position. I'm pro- $RIG but it is dangerous to be any kind of maximalist - hence I also own smaller positions in $DO & $VAL. Can't count how many times I've been "right church wrong pew" as @CorneliaLake put it so well in recent interview"
X Link 2023-12-20T16:16Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Savage - but true We now live in a nation where doctors destroy health lawyers destroy justice universities destroy knowledge governments destroy freedom the press destroys information religion destroys morals and our banks destroy our economy. Chris Hedges We now live in a nation where doctors destroy health lawyers destroy justice universities destroy knowledge governments destroy freedom the press destroys information religion destroys morals and our banks destroy our economy. Chris Hedges"
X Link 2023-12-25T00:04Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"This will be happening from Scotland England too. Extra income tax bands higher rates higher stamp duty on housing. Eventually that golden goose will go somewhere else. "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money." Maggie Thatcher Incredible stats Wokexodus only increased in 2022-2023. When you tax your residents to death there will come a time when theres no one left to tax. https://t.co/D3nzr6RlcY Incredible stats Wokexodus only increased in 2022-2023. When you tax your residents to death there will come a time when theres no one left to tax."
X Link 2023-12-25T08:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"As a new @MarhelmData subscriber I fully approve of @calvinfroedge's veganivorous phase. If accepting requests I would like to see pics / vids of one being roasted on a spit. (Dietary note: vegans may not contain all required nutrients necessary to support human flourishing.) Personally I think vegans are basically carrots or beets. vegetable Personally I think vegans are basically carrots or beets. vegetable"
X Link 2023-12-25T12:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Does this mean "we're so back" Or perhaps we never really left.in Jeremy we trust 🙏 $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL $DO [----] #offshore portfolio strategy $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO 1/1 https://t.co/w7WiHDuXkj [----] #offshore portfolio strategy $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL $DO 1/1 https://t.co/w7WiHDuXkj"
X Link 2023-12-27T14:25Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I don't disagree with your points - but it is still the case the US's history of getting into fights with hugely overmatched but extremely committed opponents has not ended well for the US. I also think the symmetry of warfare has changed hugely in favour of the underdog - so if the wars of the last couple decades were run again with today's tech it would work out MUCH worse for the US. Finally the US / West is getting soundly beaten in UKR by Russia. UKR army likely close to collapse & West has used up huge quantities of their available weapons stockpiles. I am quite sure Iran etc smell"
X Link 2023-12-31T22:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements
"@whirlybard Yes - I wonder if this is where things begin to spiral out of control"
X Link 2024-01-01T20:00Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Have you thought perhaps you own too many stocks When I looked back at my performance I realised the most important controllable factor I could have improved would have been to go much harder into my clearly-identified-at-time very few tier [--] / best ideas. They don't always work out - but have much higher hit rate & % gains vs. rest. But everybody is different & I have missed out on the odd big winner in a small position. But over time my view of my 'job' as an investor has changed: I see it now as trying to get as much money as possible into my best ideas & ignore the rest. Which is also how"
X Link 2024-01-02T10:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MugsLuck [--] year 6G DS contract in high $400k's = bad news down day. I can only conclude I'm too stupid to understand"
X Link 2024-01-02T20:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MugsLuck Haha - I nearly asked why you even included as $440k still pretty good It might be ruined for you - but I'm chuffed I caught you 😎✨"
X Link 2024-01-02T20:55Z [--] followers, [--] engagements
"@mike_oil_invest @MugsLuck Yes I don't really mind: market doesn't care at the moment but it will eventually if the good news continues (as I think it will). As ever: reality fantasies (eventually)"
X Link 2024-01-02T23:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"Could this explain the $RIG vs. $VAL valuation conundrum Value investors underappreciate that corporations which allocate capital effectively are worth a higher multiple. Value investors underappreciate that corporations which allocate capital effectively are worth a higher multiple"
X Link 2024-01-05T11:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"My view is a little different vs. the 'obvious' one: $RIG is less risky & $VAL more so than their respective balance sheets / valuations imply. $RIG has better management who've shown great strategic vision (high graded & changed fleet to focus purely on UDW & HE) & survived downturn. $RIG also has by far best high spec fleet of major drillers (as @TommyDeepwater proved) + best contracts; this didn't happen by accident. It is hard to think about these factors properly because they're amorphous / not amenable to numerical quantification - but they're real & v important. $RIG's management have"
X Link 2024-01-05T11:48Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@SoundVision16 @churnerofmarket Yes. At some point the difference gets too large - this is also why I own $VAL (smaller) $DO (medium) and $RIG (large) positions 💫"
X Link 2024-01-05T12:04Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"This is a literal zoo of covid paranoiacs & god knows what other reality-dodging freaks. As @BankerWeimar said: no wonder major US cities are being ruined / destroyed. People like this have probably never done anything useful in their lives - but they want (passionately) to control your life with their ideologies. SAN FRANCISCO JUST VOTED 8-3 IN SUPPORT OF A CEASEFIRE RESOLUTION Its time for other cities to follow. ✊ https://t.co/HuSxSmahev SAN FRANCISCO JUST VOTED 8-3 IN SUPPORT OF A CEASEFIRE RESOLUTION Its time for other cities to follow. ✊ https://t.co/HuSxSmahev"
X Link 2024-01-10T17:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$RIG vs. $VAL. Something that has stood out to me over the past 2-3 years as weve seen commodity-related companies rerate or adjust to a "new normal" of higher prices is the reluctance of many investors to acknowledge justified management discounts. Im sure many will disagree with me Something that has stood out to me over the past 2-3 years as weve seen commodity-related companies rerate or adjust to a "new normal" of higher prices is the reluctance of many investors to acknowledge justified management discounts. Im sure many will disagree with me"
X Link 2024-01-11T15:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater @MugsLuck Is this genuinely from your Dad Tommy I assumed must be satire.but now I'm not sure 😆"
X Link 2024-01-12T12:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"First capital markets day for $RIG since [----]. That's one of @KEDM_COM's newer monitors to flag for likely positive inflections. $RIG https://t.co/jYApIWtVap $RIG https://t.co/jYApIWtVap"
X Link 2024-01-14T00:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"More top grade content from Tommy - thanks $RIG $NE $DO $SDRL $VAL $SEUSF $GALP.PL $RIG $VAL $TDW $NOL.OL Deepwater Update Jan [--] [----]. "The Permian of Offshore Namibia and South Africa" Following headline discoveries in Namibia from $TTE Venus-1X and $SHEL Graff-1X (and others) this week Galp Energia of Portugal announced its Mopane-1X https://t.co/WvL91u0Hrx $SEUSF $GALP.PL $RIG $VAL $TDW $NOL.OL Deepwater Update Jan [--] [----]. "The Permian of Offshore Namibia and South Africa" Following headline discoveries in Namibia from $TTE Venus-1X and $SHEL Graff-1X (and others) this week Galp Energia"
X Link 2024-01-15T19:41Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I nominate @TommyDeepwater for most knowledgeable FinTwitter on offshore floater specs / detail. Truly amazing what you can get for free here. $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL $DO @ICBarrett @mike_oil_invest 🤣I have a dayjob already but $RIG has underappreciated assets. Their Barents semisub contracted at a clean $465k dayrate and most people classify that as a "6G" rig but that misses so many important specs about that rig and its marketability. Their [--] Cat-D Semisubs ("6G") @ICBarrett @mike_oil_invest 🤣I have a dayjob already but $RIG has underappreciated assets. Their Barents semisub contracted at a"
X Link 2024-01-18T22:02Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Interestingly vigorous rebuttal of Doomberg's 'we're in a period of energy abundance / NGLs are really oil' thesis. This was the only potential offshore / oil shortage thesis breaker I'd come across. $OIH $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL $DO "Doomberg has built his thesis of energy abundance on a house of cards. "All the cards in your energy abundance thesis have collapsed. Lets talk." LINK 👇 https://t.co/q4rxNMdIZY #energy #EnergyTransition #ClimateActionNow #renewables #NetZero #FossilFuels #OOTT #oilandgas https://t.co/peezSC6t48 "Doomberg has built his thesis of energy abundance on a house of cards."
X Link 2024-01-18T23:29Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Spot the difference Lee Kwan Yew & Charlie Munger: figure out what works & do it Joe Biden: figure out what doesn't work & do it Houthis hail 'direct confrontation' with U.S. Biden says airstrikes not working @CNBC Houthis hail 'direct confrontation' with U.S. Biden says airstrikes not working @CNBC"
X Link 2024-01-19T18:58Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@GutievK @MugsLuck $VAL's DS-13 & DS-14 likely to go first: highly likley $VAL will have a lower contracting hurdle than $RIG's cold stacked reactivations. But ex-$RIG sidelined supply dwindling"
X Link 2024-01-19T19:12Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$OIH $RIG $DO $VAL $SDRL $NE Another fab podcast interview with @CorneliaLake: v knowledgeable AND comes across as a thoroughly decent guy; thank you @AndrewRangeley. I don't agree with Judd over management though. Only sort of as Judd did say when you feel you need to write a letter to management you should prob just sell (and yes you should). When you feel you need to write the letter (assuming you're not an idiot) it's because management are either incompetent poor stewards - or both. The problem with writing letters is - even if you're successful in changing the local behaviour - they are"
X Link 2024-01-22T14:50Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"Remember: - Track records forecasts - Incentives = outcomes The 'health' industry is neither healthy nor your friend. From such examples I derived the rule that what is called healthy is generally unhealthy just as social networks are antisocial and the knowledge-based economy is typically ignorant. Taleb The "health" industry. Follow the money. If you were permanently healthy they'd be outta work The "health" industry. Follow the money. If you were permanently healthy they'd be outta work"
X Link 2024-01-23T11:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@MugsLuck (and @ArchiteuthisDx) - you have become famous (notorious). Obviously still a step below a cultist like me ✨ $RIG $NE $DO $SDRL $VAL"
X Link 2024-01-24T16:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"$RIG; past as prologue (h/t @Ultradeep3) EBITDA was 30B baht so the market cap was equal to one year's worth of EBITDA. Siam had roughly 130B baht in net debt so EV/EBITDA was 5x. So optically not that cheap on an EV basis. But the leverage meant that only a small rerating in EV/EBITDA would have a big effect on the EBITDA was 30B baht so the market cap was equal to one year's worth of EBITDA. Siam had roughly 130B baht in net debt so EV/EBITDA was 5x. So optically not that cheap on an EV basis. But the leverage meant that only a small rerating in EV/EBITDA would have a big effect on the"
X Link 2024-01-24T20:15Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"I'm sure outsourcing important government policy / decisions to 25-year-old social media influencer activists will get us the best results. Why aren't Russia & China doing this too - it obviously works so well ✨ NY Times on how White House arrived at decision to delay U.S. LNG terminal CP2 in Louisiana: "Ahead of the decision White House climate advisers met with activists like Alex Haraus a 25-year-old Colorado social media influencer who has led a TikTok and Instagram campaign NY Times on how White House arrived at decision to delay U.S. LNG terminal CP2 in Louisiana: "Ahead of the decision"
X Link 2024-01-26T11:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"@charlesbonnerjr Haha - yes but none of us here on our corner of FinTwit are reality-dodging 'normies'"
X Link 2024-01-26T12:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements
"@TommyDeepwater @CliffEngleLtd Do you have an opinion on this @NICKRADICAL4"
X Link 2024-01-30T18:38Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Gringo gets it $RIG $VAL @hkuppy This is probably because - after initial reaction - people figured out reduced shallow investment by SA (which has zero impact on $RIG) will increase deepwater investment in Africa (which benefits $RIG). @hkuppy This is probably because - after initial reaction - people figured out reduced shallow investment by SA (which has zero impact on $RIG) will increase deepwater investment in Africa (which benefits $RIG)"
X Link 2024-01-30T22:59Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"@offshoremayor (I do own some $DO & smaller $VAL as well as much larger $RIG position ✨)"
X Link 2024-01-30T23:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"There is some truth in both of these positions (hence why I own smaller $VAL). However this discussion ignores $VAL management's previous poor capital allocation choices. (And don't @ me with $VAL has warm floaters on the water vs. $RIG's still cold stacked even though $VAL made no $ from their reactivations so far. That strategy to extent worked was completely dependent upon the other drillers holding their discipline or it would have lead to a dreadful race to bottom with DRs now much lower than current. We can't also see the counterfactual of what DRs would be NOW without $VAL's"
X Link 2024-01-31T09:50Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"At $650k DRs $VAL's stock won't be anywhere near current price; neither will $RIG's or any of the other OSDs. Leveraging up in second 1/2 of upcycle (we'll be well into 2nd 1/2 by time we reach $650k DRs) in a highly cyclical industry is a proven way to wipe out your equity holders during the next downturn"
X Link 2024-01-31T09:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Perhaps $PYPL shouldn't have tried to add T&Cs that would allow them to steal money from customer accounts if they didn't like their politics / public statements (then immediately denied & backtracked when blew up in their faces). Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch. #GoWokeGoBroke cc: @BankerWeimar @ElementaryValue January shaping up to be six digits and this is just one of many headlines to hit in the last four hours. PayPal to Cut Around [----] Jobs as Rivals Snag Market Share January shaping up to be six digits and this is just one of many headlines to hit in the last four hours. PayPal to Cut"
X Link 2024-01-31T20:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Reality (doomer) fantasies $OIH $RIG $NE $VAL $DO $SDRL One more observation. Back in [----] I was also in Las Palmas (actually working on the Valaris restructuring & $rig debt situation). Back then there were a lot more rigs in lay up here big difference compared to today. One more observation. Back in [----] I was also in Las Palmas (actually working on the Valaris restructuring & $rig debt situation). Back then there were a lot more rigs in lay up here big difference compared to today"
X Link 2024-02-04T18:47Z [---] followers, [----] engagements
"All of the models that predict catastrophic global warming fail the key test of the scientific method: they grossly overpredict the warming versus actual data. Climate models such as the ones that the EPA is using have been consistently wrong for decades in predicting actual outcomes" It won't make any difference: science has nothing to do with 'climate change'. It is a toxic combination of grift & ideology. Remember: track records forecasts TWO LEADING PRINCETON MIT SCIENTISTS SAY EPA CLIMATE REGULATIONS BASED ON A HOAX: "William Happer professor emeritus in physics at Princeton University"
X Link 2024-02-04T22:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"Correct as per Taleb: From such examples I derived the rule that what is called healthy is generally unhealthy just as social networks are antisocial and the knowledge-based economy is typically ignorant. The Inflation Reduction Act was actually a trillion dollar spending bill. The border security bill is actually a mass amnesty. Just assume bills do the opposite of what they say. The Inflation Reduction Act was actually a trillion dollar spending bill. The border security bill is actually a mass amnesty. Just assume bills do the opposite of what they say"
X Link 2024-02-05T15:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements
"It's not Cramer but I'll take what I can get Thank you @FT - are we close to oil sentiment bottom $OIH $RIG $NE $DO $VAL $SDRL @PodContrarian @ElementaryValue"
X Link 2024-02-05T19:47Z [----] followers, [----] engagements
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