Dark | Light
# ![@HettyGreen2020 Avatar](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:26/cr:twitter::1893714497317072897.png) @HettyGreen2020 Start Makingsense

Start Makingsense posts on X about $betr, $figr, insurance, balance sheet the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

### Engagements: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1893714497317072897/interactions)
![Engagements Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893714497317072897/c:line/m:interactions.svg)

- [--] Week [-----] +21%
- [--] Month [------] +46%
- [--] Months [------] +167%

### Mentions: [--] [#](/creator/twitter::1893714497317072897/posts_active)
![Mentions Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893714497317072897/c:line/m:posts_active.svg)

- [--] Months [---] +44%

### Followers: [---] [#](/creator/twitter::1893714497317072897/followers)
![Followers Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893714497317072897/c:line/m:followers.svg)

- [--] Week [---] +4.10%
- [--] Month [---] +18%
- [--] Months [---] +92%

### CreatorRank: [---------] [#](/creator/twitter::1893714497317072897/influencer_rank)
![CreatorRank Line Chart](https://lunarcrush.com/gi/w:600/cr:twitter::1893714497317072897/c:line/m:influencer_rank.svg)

### Social Influence

**Social category influence**
[finance](/list/finance)  [stocks](/list/stocks)  [technology brands](/list/technology-brands)  [cryptocurrencies](/list/cryptocurrencies)  [celebrities](/list/celebrities)  [countries](/list/countries)  [automotive brands](/list/automotive-brands)  [currencies](/list/currencies)  [financial services](/list/financial-services)  #2376 [exchanges](/list/exchanges) 

**Social topic influence**
[$betr](/topic/$betr), [$figr](/topic/$figr), [insurance](/topic/insurance), [balance sheet](/topic/balance-sheet), [$xzo](/topic/$xzo) #3, [$hci](/topic/$hci), [$qxo](/topic/$qxo), [money](/topic/money), [$brk](/topic/$brk), [$nbn](/topic/$nbn)

**Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by**
[@cedarstresearch](/creator/undefined) [@boujeebanker](/creator/undefined) [@mabiverse123](/creator/undefined) [@vishalgarg10](/creator/undefined) [@danielsethlewis](/creator/undefined) [@triberuffner](/creator/undefined) [@danielsloeb1](/creator/undefined) [@billackman](/creator/undefined) [@onesail](/creator/undefined) [@jessecohn4](/creator/undefined) [@elonmusk](/creator/undefined) [@realdonaldtrump](/creator/undefined) [@junkbondinvest](/creator/undefined) [@dollarsanddata](/creator/undefined) [@daardos](/creator/undefined) [@vishalbetter](/creator/undefined) [@mcagney](/creator/undefined) [@adammgrossman](/creator/undefined) [@winnermon1](/creator/undefined) [@doge](/creator/undefined)

**Top assets mentioned**
[Better Home & Finance Holding Company Class A Common Stock (BETR)](/topic/$betr) [Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. (FIGR)](/topic/$figr) [Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)](/topic/$xzo) [QXO, Inc. Common Stock (QXO)](/topic/$qxo) [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)](/topic/$tsla) [Home Depot, Inc. (HD)](/topic/$hd) [Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares (PGY)](/topic/$pgy) [Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)](/topic/$uber) [GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC. (GWRE)](/topic/$gwre) [Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)](/topic/$bldr) [Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. (SLDE)](/topic/$slde) [HUBSPOT, INC. (HUBS)](/topic/$hubs) [Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT)](/topic/$rkt) [GMS Inc. (GMS)](/topic/$gms) [D R Horton Inc (DHI)](/topic/$dhi) [GammaSwap (GS)](/topic/$gs) [NVR, Inc. (NVR)](/topic/$nvr) [Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock (GSHD)](/topic/$gshd) [Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF)](/topic/$jef) [Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC)](/topic/$sdhc) [Goldman Sachs (GS)](/topic/goldman-sachs) [Global Payments Inc (GPN)](/topic/$gpn) [Costco Hot Dog (COST)](/topic/$cost) [Salesforce Inc (CRM)](/topic/$crm) [Now Coin (NOW)](/topic/$now) [Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A)](/topic/berkshire-hathaway) [Agoric (BLD)](/topic/$bld) [Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)](/topic/$pltr) [Ryan Specialty Group Holdings, Inc (RYAN)](/topic/$ryan) [The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock (BWIN)](/topic/$bwin) [PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. Common Stock (PFSI)](/topic/$pfsi) [Mario Coin (COIN)](/topic/$coin) [Adobe, Inc. (ADBE)](/topic/$adbe) [Lennar Corporation (LEN)](/topic/$len) [Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)](/topic/$upst)
### Top Social Posts
Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@elonmusk Sue the do-nothing contractors. @doge"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1903040820074123760)  2025-03-21T11:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@elonmusk If cutting red tape is the first requirement for a Democratic Abundance Agenda that requires a @DOGE -like effort in every big Democrat-run city. Lots of luck. Democratic progress isnt about private sector growth and people know it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1905597847963136358)  2025-03-28T12:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@elonmusk Elon and SpaceX inspire the way NASA used to. The left is an envy factory"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1906132878875914441)  2025-03-29T23:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@BillAckman @TrumpWarRoom @WhiteHouse must better articulate what Warren writes here and not just say tariffs will be great for our debt and save future generations. Explain the policy without jargon and demonstrate its Morality. @StephenM @realDonaldTrump @DonaldJTrumpJr"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1907976010026426452)  2025-04-04T01:58Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$W Wayfair maybe now theyll finally cut stock comp 80-90%. Absolutely complacent rich management. The small cuts have barely made a difference. Staffing and comp model clearly not sustainable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1907993134610501955)  2025-04-04T03:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$X trading down because Trump still doesnt like the deal. Trump will be against it until hes notand until then will extract much more in the CFIUS process. Japan will prioritize it in trade talks and Trump can frame the deal as creating many jobs https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/trump-says-he-does-not-want-see-us-steel-go-japan-2025-04-09/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/trump-says-he-does-not-want-see-us-steel-go-japan-2025-04-09/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1910107644511088714)  2025-04-09T23:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Saul_Sadka In the grand scheme these folks are fringe characters mostly drowned out with time by other characters who come and go. Political parties are good at keeping them on the fringe"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1910462597062680752)  2025-04-10T22:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Main problem with Goosehead $GSHD - mostly home insurance sold thru real estate agents - consolidation of agencies and vertical integration like $RKT will make RE firms want to own the econs with their own fast binding service - auto is small premium low margin cheaper direct"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1915403761234723079)  2025-04-24T13:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"10m cars [--] hrs per day [--] mph 383B miles per yr (3.5T in US) $1.50 per mile $575B revenue Software margin and multiple Trillions in market cap no"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1916892616731361322)  2025-04-28T16:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$TSLA if the board really initiated a search process without Elons knowledge Elon has a problem and a new board is needed"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1917767524545863935)  2025-05-01T02:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$TSLA and its likely the Board did Not inform Elon because any normal Board would choreograph a staged departure with such an important CEO and not allow a politically-tinged surprise like this Elon has a problem on the Board"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1917770999774208132)  2025-05-01T02:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$BLDR massive 3.3m share buyback at $118 in April after almost none in last quarter as share price plummeted. If FCF ignites again in H2 it will look very smart"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1917923125024489515)  2025-05-01T12:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@rev_cap $BLDR April buyback questionable lifting leverage. $DFH is way too levered lots of insider selling bought an expensive plane Florida heavy Homebuilders are on a hamster wheel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1918020101535891897)  2025-05-01T19:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$TSLA Ajit Jain talking with Warren Buffett about the future of car insurance at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting. Says that with autonomous driving there will be fewer accidents but the accidents will cost more. Why Tesla cars are only getting cheaper. @Tesla"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1918688038898589965)  2025-05-03T15:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$TSLA Ajit Jain of Berkshire Hathaway said today that car insurance will change completely due to autonomous driving So its shocking more people arent trying to piece together the exact economics of @Tesla FSD and instead are still focused on the legacy car sale business"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1918843063767572585)  2025-05-04T01:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Berkshire Hathaways cash position has a lot to do with sales of Apple stock and few opportunities to invest in a relatively expensive market. Warren Buffett isnt setting up Greg Abel with a certain amount of cash hes just staying disciplined as always"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1919379578927124736)  2025-05-05T13:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@avgvalueinvest Value trap unless margins turn around and rates decline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1919789134685557166)  2025-05-06T16:19Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@avgvalueinvest Probably true. Just have to accept that new management is getting fast and loose with the balance sheet and thats not good when no one knows when rates will go below 6"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1919800186399756301)  2025-05-06T17:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@kevg1412 Hes stayed under the radar vs. Todd. Anyone know what names are his other than DVA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1920935124734021680)  2025-05-09T20:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@JTLonsdale Changes the budgeting paradigm. Prioritizes students and teachers minimizes administrators"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1921023467035443306)  2025-05-10T02:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@awealthofcs See the Mackintosh wsj article this morn. We are still nudging the trade deficit. And other countries trade surplus. This isnt a return to pre trump47 status quo"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1921905890040406231)  2025-05-12T12:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@CapstackCapital Not be to an ass butsmart money cant predict a pullback. The smart thing to do was to hold this for [--] yrs not rack up a tax bill on bursts hoping for a pull back in an obvious compounder Think long term"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1922085491828007199)  2025-05-13T00:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@CapstackCapital Think youre right. Def a big move. Could become a little m&a dependent. Related can you imagine how much more aggressive a PE owner would be with m&a/balance sheet"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1922087021377441863)  2025-05-13T00:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@DanielSLoeb1 This is part of the deal for this set. You get compensated for your sacrifice to the cause. And its an insurance policy future leaders know they can fall back on"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1922338254017192019)  2025-05-13T17:08Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"$X Trump has wrung much more out of Nippon as said below. If true the admin asked for all this investment and they have now gotten it $X trading down because Trump still doesnt like the deal. Trump will be against it until hes notand until then will extract much more in the CFIUS process. Japan will prioritize it in trade talks and Trump can frame the deal as creating many jobs https://t.co/TZPUGzL6y7 $X trading down because Trump still doesnt like the deal. Trump will be against it until hes notand until then will extract much more in the CFIUS process. Japan will prioritize it in trade"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1924549962928406684)  2025-05-19T19:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$X Admin leaks to press that it asked for the improved and massive Nippon investment to provide political cover. CFIUS reads the news $X Trump has wrung much more out of Nippon as said below. If true the admin asked for all this investment and they have now gotten it $X Trump has wrung much more out of Nippon as said below. If true the admin asked for all this investment and they have now gotten it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1924553055061618984)  2025-05-19T19:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@LDiscernment They wont see post covid level FCF for a long time. Recent buybacks have been expensive showed lack of awareness for macro weakening balance sheet. And now they have to compete against Brad Jacobs. Mgmt better tighten up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1925645865332465702)  2025-05-22T20:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$X constructive for Nippon indeed https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-panel-divided-over-nippon-steel-bid-us-steel-path-forward-seen-says-official-2025-05-22/ $X If you are winning and or in final negotiations you generally keep your mouth shut. Nippon is silent steelworkers union prez not. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-panel-divided-over-nippon-steel-bid-us-steel-path-forward-seen-says-official-2025-05-22/ $X If you are winning and or in final negotiations you generally keep your mouth shut. Nippon is silent steelworkers union prez not"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1925683907267027073)  2025-05-22T22:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"One obvious market crash that would likely prompt Warren Buffett to deploy his cash is war between China and Taiwan"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1929849801249563052)  2025-06-03T10:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$FCNCA This is the way"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1929909791888998601)  2025-06-03T14:35Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Teslaconomics @grok lots of people probably thought robots would follow FSD here. Tell us more about Tesla Energy and its potential scale"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1929912420912275582)  2025-06-03T14:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@CPIWealth Absolute nonsense. Just buy an S&P index fund. Thats plenty diversified plenty liquid (unlike privates) lowest cost (unlike privates). RIAs deserve about 0.02% not the 1% they charge you"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1929983242754560080)  2025-06-03T19:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Elon Musk and Trump will be fine. Elon needs government contracts and hates woke culture. Republicans need Elons money. $TSLA $DJT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1930974602890473924)  2025-06-06T13:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$X Both sides still need/want a deal. But ofc Trump does not care whether shareholders get $55 or $34. Obvious downside asymmetry at $51.50. Wanting last dollar is dumb especially in merger arb. $X 🫡 Economic reality won. And Trump drove a great result for US Steel workers. $X investors who didnt get confused by union politics profited. $X 🫡 Economic reality won. And Trump drove a great result for US Steel workers. $X investors who didnt get confused by union politics profited"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1933523331904364922)  2025-06-13T13:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Oakmont: a freeway runs through it. Seriously whats the appeal Oh the rough is long. Grass grows. Course has no character #usopen"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1934074650889486542)  2025-06-15T02:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Brad Landers ICE stunt will siphon leftist votes from Zohran Mamdani - votes he badly needs if he has any hope of beating Cuomo. Polymarket betting odds reflecting this"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1935097704847397098)  2025-06-17T22:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$AMZN (Maybe) Conservative numbers re. the Jassy letter: 350k corporate employees (best # chat could find). Fire 25%. Takes a few yrs. $210k flc per employee Save $18.4bn X30 $550bn value Current market cap is $2.3bn"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1935344786493350113)  2025-06-18T14:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@junkbondinvest Your annuity is safe. They promise"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1935491918877646917)  2025-06-19T00:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$GMS Recall $QXO got help from tariff tantrum in Beacon $100-105 is so accretive to them and $HD. Its a few months cash flow for HD. Massive discount from what GMS board should demand based on even slow growth DCF Jacobs low ball initial bid tactic should be known by now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1936060424245629248)  2025-06-20T13:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$HD and $QXO moving higher this morning says a lot about current price"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1936069657217417490)  2025-06-20T14:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$GMS Shocker that RBC says $QXO is most likely to win. Its the only known bid And RBC has been JBR on QXO deals recently and just a co manager on $HD debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1936079925796057234)  2025-06-20T15:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$QXO letter to $GMS is interesting not just in ripping the firms performance in a tough environment but outright questioning the CEOs integrity (stock moved after a meeting apparently Barely). Letter signed by CFO not CEO Jacobs. Hmm. By the way is the $HD bid real"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1936124070833029391)  2025-06-20T18:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"With respect to the takeover speculation in the stock we also note the steep rise in your share price following our meeting on May [--] [----] in New York as well as a research report by Raymond James which resulted from a non-deal roadshow with you and your CFO stating that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1936142780176138465)  2025-06-20T19:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"GMS was a likely acquisition target and GMSs management was willing to entertain a sale. Most recently we have heard from industry participants that J.P. Morgan and Jefferies have been aggressively marketing the Company for sale. Is that nothing Thoughts @laurenthomas"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1936143301779878383)  2025-06-20T19:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"leftists- Pres Trump and SecDef Hegseth will this mission be inclusive If not were telling the New York Times Democrats just need to learn a woman was flying one of the B-2s and theyll support the mission that destroyed Irans nuclear sites Ofc they didnt get a heads up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1936865262168617453)  2025-06-22T19:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@dollarsanddata This policy has wide bipartisan support as shown for decades. Why Because the rich are taxed enormously along the way (at corporate and personal income levels). And savings = investment. Anyway wealth is rarely generational in America. Always avoid temptations to envy"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1937131380355534972)  2025-06-23T12:51Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"Tough spot for QXO since Home Depot can pay anything for GMS (w/in reason) and it wont change HD And a HD win wont impact its ability to compete on future deals QXO must lean in - and it can given the stock run up - even if it writes that target sucks and mgmt is unethical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1937193748544520643)  2025-06-23T16:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$GMS $QXO $HD"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1937200316229017709)  2025-06-23T17:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"So $HD has lots of room to make a $QXO win as painful (dilutive & levering) as possible. And it must given deal size and QXOs potential"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1937206416252588063)  2025-06-23T17:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@liensofnewyork You mean the ideas of the Democratic base. Maybe nyc needs to cycle restore those 1970s memories. Enjoy the free bus rides (when the mechanics arent striking)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1937634327174803579)  2025-06-24T22:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$GMS $HD Win Home Depot winning at $110 aligns with below. Plenty accretive $QXO couldnt go $105. HD kill shot was smart vs. nickel and dime QXO ripping GMS in the letter was to ward off other bidders and depress board expectations. Accusing the CEO of lawbreaking was awful Tough spot for QXO since Home Depot can pay anything for GMS (w/in reason) and it wont change HD And a HD win wont impact its ability to compete on future deals QXO must lean in - and it can given the stock run up - even if it writes that target sucks and mgmt is unethical Tough spot for QXO since Home Depot can pay"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1939668448268751179)  2025-06-30T12:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$110 is 11x ltm ebitda Odd $QXO was anchored below it (paying the Beacon x) with the Jacobs premium on QXO (high teens x) Other high quality targets arent cheaper multiples have reset some lower rates expected plenty of large competitors So one obvious next poss step"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1939681556471111833)  2025-06-30T13:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Btw total lack of imagination and strategic thinking from all the bank research shops that wouldnt set a target $95 even after Home Depot didnt refute reports it bid. Oh the premium feels high lets not even look at the multiple or do a dcf Typical"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1939686657503924545)  2025-06-30T14:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Here we go. $QXO needs to go big to avoid competition like HD in the GMS process (see below) Could do MoE with $BLDR with QXO shh prob owning 46% PF. All stock. Brad would be CEO BLDR is cyclical but great pro reach and QXO can bring needed digital and ops/margin help Is Home Depot the cheapest stock in this market Must Brad go after Builders First Source Is Home Depot the cheapest stock in this market Must Brad go after Builders First Source"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1940124631697879518)  2025-07-01T19:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$TSLA Like any rich donor Elon cant believe he doesnt own the GOP after contributing $400mm But Trump owns it and ideas (and voters) are more powerful than money Swing senators are already the moderating force in US politics America party wont work"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1942203380442546191)  2025-07-07T12:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$QXO Market clearly thinks $BLD may be in their sights. But prob not huge premium from here Big so not much competition in auction. $HD wont be back after SRS and $GMS Strategically fits good alternative after losing GMS"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1942943936470790480)  2025-07-09T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Think $BLDR is as likely. Esp with $BLD buying Progressive (installation) With the premium needed in all stock deal $QXO would prob own 44-47% PF. Brad as CEO obv Both firms know M&A and how to use a balance sheet Distro powerhouse Couple privates out there as well"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1943096119694610850)  2025-07-09T23:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Would have huge synergies. Presumably Brad thinks $BLDR is grossly inefficient and can do much better BLDR was handed a pandemic gift but has been average at best for over a year and new CEO doesnt sound ready"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1943100199594778882)  2025-07-10T00:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"1/3 cash 2/3 stock should easily keep $QXO PF ownership over 50% Obv use as much cash as possible given the Jacobs premium on the stock"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1943103415153774867)  2025-07-10T00:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@tseides On Dispersion - cant cherry pick best funds in advance (that avg person cant access anyway) Avg person will be crushed by fees on the diworsified result of 100s of avg but lboable middle market cos Munger said stupid because he knew how itd turn out. Its stupid again"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1943295562939318298)  2025-07-10T13:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$QXO $BLDR napkin w inexact current QXO BS (lot has happened since 3/31) $175 pp = 11x [--] AEBITDA (no synergies) 80% stock=51% QXO own at $22/sh 3.4x [----] PF net lev on $3.55b (huge FCF) Large value creation if you stay anywhere close to current Jacobs premium Not advice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1943308012816371884)  2025-07-10T13:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$QXO $BLDR napkin (incl BLDR April buyback and May notes) $160/sh PP=12x $1.9b '25E aebitda (mgmt midpt) 4.0x pf '25E net lev implies 45% cash on $2.9b pf '25E aebitda QXO would own 72% pf at $22/sh $22/sh is 14.5x $3.35b '26E aebitda Not advice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1944402801104134293)  2025-07-13T14:25Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"$GPN Elliott stake news GPN overpayed for deals for yrs bc they couldnt hit 10% organic. Ex CEO was banker deputies still there FCF solid. Just delever do buybacks no more big deals.but investors can't trust mgmt. Til now Elliott should replace mgmt find growth"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1945482113907663183)  2025-07-16T13:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Looking at $BMNR or just buying $ETH on $COIN or neither. (doesn't measure any non-ETH ops which look immaterial have no idea enlighten me)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1945494190147678659)  2025-07-16T14:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@cmo040958 Maybe a little light but decent premium to todays price Its about a turn GMS and Beacon aligns with reasonable DCF imo $QXO wouldnt pay for synergies. Competitive auction Who If so maybe you must Tougher environment margins down not superbly managed last year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1945627574207492110)  2025-07-16T23:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@WSJopinion @Mike_Pence You hijacked an obit to lament Republican policies that actually win ones that barely deviate from Reaganism. God forbid we promise voters we wont touch social security. @wsj you dont understand the country like you think you do. @realDonaldTrump @JDVance @WhiteHouse"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1947113014328504379)  2025-07-21T01:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@daardos For a cash flow view use their EBITDA table adjust non-cash items like SBC and D&A Current price still doesn't imply That much growth or op lev in next few years Be careful re. market cap. Share count is more 105m rn (depends). See filing. That's why $PGY isn't $80 right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1947703375430111356)  2025-07-22T17:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@daardos Yup I didn't say delete that line. Gotta make an assumption. Risk retention is low it isn't a bank. Agree that's the appeal. if they have default problems again this is going back to $10-15"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1947706289389273165)  2025-07-22T17:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@daardos Exchangeable notes will be paid in cash unless they're idiots or severe problems.due [----] Bottom [--] rows are in future space them out over a few years All others look ITM (sure some forfeits) but TSM trims dilution a bit 105m is round number Add margin of safety"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1947713120316674416)  2025-07-22T17:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@cmo040958 Got scared by tariffs Dunno prob not But its not that cheap imo Surely they want to find deals for less"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1948058168204144861)  2025-07-23T16:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"Why do cash rich mature often cyclical businesses pay stock comp Vast majority of employees sell it once it vests. Its such blather that stock makes people more virtuous owners $ABNB is a great example Plenty others $BRK doesnt but pays large cash amounts to its best"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1948091823202963876)  2025-07-23T18:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@MMoney642 Think multiple expands ahead of AV inflection point as $UBER will become even More of a toll biz one thats less cyclical/discretionary Also FCF on incremental revenue dollar is stunning rn And $TSLA will have to join Uber bc of the network and bc rides are a commodity"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1949096540968034585)  2025-07-26T13:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@MMoney642 Imagine you own a $TSLA and Elon says you cant use $UBER app to make money on the FSD you pay for Unthinkable"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1949099417283273102)  2025-07-26T13:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@Greenwaterbot11 @liensofnewyork We get it. You want a mini socialist paradise for a building Understand that the real socialists say you have zero private property right - they will come after you too I can see it now. Airbnb allowed in NYC but only for illegals. You got a problem with that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1949132867658785020)  2025-07-26T15:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$GPN [--] trading days since Worldpay deal - if Elliott Management bought 200k shs/day they would hit 5% ownership and have to file 13D very soon Elliott only needs to babysit (or replace) GPN mgmt and stop stupid stuff (bad M&A) that disgusted investors last [--] yrs Lots of FCF"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1949851086589751450)  2025-07-28T15:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@boujee_banker But are you also underwriting $12 in NTM (starting July 2025) $2.60/sh next qtr is $10.40 RR maybe theres some early accretion and loan buys and they hit $11/sh in NTM But SBA looks down so bad you might have $1m GoS in [--] qtrs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1950233376654577875)  2025-07-29T16:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$UBER Uber One napkin 2026E Just the fee NOT incl cross sell 45m subscribers at $11/mo (30m as of Feb was 60% growth) 70% op margin = fcf = $4.2B 20x $83B value vs. $183B = UBER market cap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1950754040154816794)  2025-07-31T03:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$UBER Uber One napkin 2026E Just the fee no rev syn 40m subscribers at $11/mo (30m reported as of Feb was 60% growth paying $10) 70% op margin = fcf = $3.7B 20x $74B vs. $183B market cap @DanielSLoeb1 thoughts @BillAckman amirite"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1950924612612640840)  2025-07-31T14:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@convexititties $UBER prints $300m of FCF every [--] weeks justttt fyi"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1950964172457410945)  2025-07-31T16:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$UBER With free cash flow ramping Fast hope for a tanked qtr for the sake of cheaper buybacks Uber is essential to AVs for Optimization/utilization which governs profitability. Going alone too tough Plus more price comp with many disparate actors and no marketplace $TSLA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1951268708170551296)  2025-08-01T13:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"$PLTR has 1/5 the free cash flow that $UBER has but 2x the market cap $COST has about the same free cash flow as $UBER and 2x the market cap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1952478670742081915)  2025-08-04T21:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@galkrubiner @Pagayaltd Nice qtr. The way you described the strategy it sounds like PGY wants to be a sort of Palantir for incremental credit origination at every US bank. Do it"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1953527511360356751)  2025-08-07T18:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@modestproposal1 Yep but a key issue is what are you willing to pay $HUBS for example for a commodity agent. And the seats pricing model is vaporizing"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1953813665972469861)  2025-08-08T13:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Many elite hedge funds with big positions in old cant miss software firms are kind of melting down right now $CRM $HUBS $GWRE $WDAY $NOW"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1954612639708991976)  2025-08-10T18:35Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$MNDY $ADBE These all should be 15-20x FCF now No moat"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1954896834318704954)  2025-08-11T13:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$FNMA $FMCC Trump seems serious about an IPO. Lots of momentum here and a very obvious value creation oppty for all incl taxpayers Been in the works a long time see below IPO Docs surely being prepped now Thoughts"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1955050597780005339)  2025-08-11T23:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@dollarsanddata Thats a big one but actually you need to invert. Most life changing is $100000 back to $10000"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1955242682055303400)  2025-08-12T12:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@boujee_banker Homebuilders if you think margins can recover"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1955411702268436876)  2025-08-12T23:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"$GPN Moving higher day before Elliott Management expected to file 13F This mgmt team just needs adult supervision to stay disciplined If it can find growth too look out $GPN Elliott stake news GPN overpayed for deals for yrs bc they couldnt hit 10% organic. Ex CEO was banker deputies still there FCF solid. Just delever do buybacks no more big deals.but investors can't trust mgmt. Til now Elliott should replace mgmt find growth $GPN Elliott stake news GPN overpayed for deals for yrs bc they couldnt hit 10% organic. Ex CEO was banker deputies still there FCF solid. Just delever do buybacks no"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1956056906662916600)  2025-08-14T18:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@boujee_banker Not so humblebrag fwiw- $BRK 13F shows Buffett bought $LEN and $DHI last qtr"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1956101162039398519)  2025-08-14T21:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@DreamingFlorida Thx interesting Other possibility is a large synthetic position. Not hard to build fast avoids 13D Maybe they bought actual shares in July maybe not. Volume wasnt that heavy $GPN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1956150303763652647)  2025-08-15T00:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@BillAckman If Washington state wanted to be part of Canada would the Feds let them"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1957993147968971032)  2025-08-20T02:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@CedarStResearch If only their NIM met the same standard"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1962572202445852817)  2025-09-01T17:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@Mr_Neutral_Man At any decent gym the fit chic girls have been wearing ALO or something fancy for over a year now $COST has knockoffs now too $LULU"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1963790727747379573)  2025-09-05T02:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"Understand - The hardcore DEI ppl running cities see white deaths as collateral damage reparations even Their DEI omelette requires breaking eggs White women are obviously the most vulnerable easiest targets Iryna Zarutska Charlotte NC Never forget"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1965769879770001728)  2025-09-10T13:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch @santh0ny Another name with this kind of credit risk is $PGY often seen as a no-brainer on FinX. Retention. $UPST"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1965791975661301903)  2025-09-10T14:58Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"$FNMA $FMCC Hit pieces coming out on @pulte from power-obsessed congressmen upset they can't control Fannie and Freddie forever. See Politico @realDonaldTrump should ignore even if Pulte likes to tweet about Fed officials breaking laws $FNMA $FMCC Bc many commentators are confused: It's 100% possible for the IPO(s) to happen by year-end They're already SEC filers - S-1 comments & marketing can go fast Only need political agreement on recap/release terms - Not congressional approval Been planning for [--] yr $FNMA $FMCC Bc many commentators are confused: It's 100% possible for the IPO(s) to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1965798563826524383)  2025-09-10T15:24Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"$FNMA $FMCC Republican congressmen are deflecting this onto Bessent but they are the ones to blame. Call them. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/09/republicans-congress-bessent-pulte-trump-00552586 https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/09/republicans-congress-bessent-pulte-trump-00552586"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1965798891665998066)  2025-09-10T15:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch @santh0ny But Cedar if rates go down it'll moon The smaller the position the louder the cries $PGY $UPST"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1965799420378927497)  2025-09-10T15:27Z [--] followers, [----] engagements


"@CedarStResearch One more on $PGY. The multiple is darned rich when you consider the true Shout incl itm options rsu (p24 Q) FinX PGY influencers flat dont have the multiple right Better not have losses boys Large non-10b5 sales by cfo and prez in last [--] wks too"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1966130649590267912)  2025-09-11T13:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"The transgender LGBT flag will now be seen as a symbol of terrorism and intimidation by most of America Charlie Kirk Shooter Engraving"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1966162390489379191)  2025-09-11T15:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@realchrisrufo Aka woke white women Democrats feed on their guilt dont care about their safety See Iryna Zarutska"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1966197102494756994)  2025-09-11T17:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@junkbondinvest Which one"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1967590344486477976)  2025-09-15T14:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements


"@junkbondinvest Presumably Jones DesLauriers dba Navacord 8x leverage per fitch"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1967595956708487251)  2025-09-15T14:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements


"@AdvisorsMidwest Been happening for years Been priced for a long time If mortgage rates go lower there will be shortages even in the South"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1969062327300313453)  2025-09-19T15:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$FNMA $FMCC OTC stocks can see huge volatility Can be a fund manager hearing something they didnt like or outright manipulation dollar amount traded so far isnt huge but ppl with a stop loss get hit SPS treatment needs to be ironed out asap. Partial conversion being priced"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1969118097291276315)  2025-09-19T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@midas79_ @The_Jackal1997 @SecScottBessent @BillAckman Nonsense. Multiple matters"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1971222602267099419)  2025-09-25T14:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@mvcinvesting BETR. became sort of a meme this week but the history is interesting and mgmt expects to breakeven next year Product Econs are differentiated Exponential relat btw mortgage rates and revenue/earnings if former decline"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1971274770621890592)  2025-09-25T18:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@CedarStResearch A must-have view if owning a name like $HUBS (which has rebounded a bit lately) You wonder how many firms esp Smid universe want to build and manage agents or are capable of it (even if its easy now)"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1971374220014993441)  2025-09-26T00:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Terrible US crowd at Bethpage Black for the Ryder Cup Embarrassingly quiet Next time @RyderCupUSA needs to do tryouts for [----] local crazies who get a free ticket they cant resell and cant bring a phone in People who spend $1000 for a ticket arent fit @chambleebrandel"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1971730567978012930)  2025-09-27T00:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@heygump @RyderCupUSA @chambleebrandel So fans should feel fine to quit on the team after an hour And they should only cheer for good shots Got it. That opinion is why it was so awful"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1971733432662479068)  2025-09-27T00:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@vishalgarg1_0 @rabois @Mabiverse123 @Ray5D @ericjackson @CanadaKaz Vishal so generous dignifying ignorant X retail questions If ppl would just look at Tinman AI rev contrib margin and growth. Ever heard of an 8k If they listened to earnings calls If they understood Tinman pship TAM and if $BETR ever publicizes pships they have talked abt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1972105899574477272)  2025-09-28T01:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@vishalgarg1_0 @rabois @Mabiverse123 @Ray5D @ericjackson @CanadaKaz Love seeing @vishalgarg1_0 show a softer side given history. We all get it. But hes a Karp deep down and if you spend [--] minutes listening to him you will know it He dgaf about the $open vs $betr retail flow competition Rabois ratiod comment tells you all you need to know"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1972116503681274140)  2025-09-28T01:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BETR If u owned it $25 biggest fear was buyout at $40 or PIPE at $25 by a @plaffont type So meme launch had good timing helped by pships and now ATM with press If run rating $40-70m earnings at 2026ye its still interesting Tinman AI biz deserves big multiple"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1973749683194577087)  2025-10-02T13:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Akshay_Naheta @Bakkt Up-C is an overhang for many reasons. Its a half assed way of going public so applaud you evaluating 1) Disclose valuation of Up-C/TRA-use third party 2) Let Class A shareholders to do their own paid by Company 3) Dilute at generous VWAP to avoid impression of gaming valuation"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1974123672500895758)  2025-10-03T14:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@Akshay_Naheta @Bakkt $BKKT"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1974123874985095669)  2025-10-03T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@rule_of_law_guy Builders love it shares rocketand existing home sales plummet homesellers/voters lose their minds saying homebuilders are getting rich off me. Trump orders next Fed chair to buy $4T MBS in [----] tripling its current hold and driving rates below 5% setting off resi boom"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1975334512977461279)  2025-10-06T22:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"***checks $JEF CDS*** Look how much value @HandlerRich and the team at $JEF have stealthily created over the last 4-5 years (he'd say 30) [--] bagger since Covid lows and double over the past year. 1.6x book despite large asset management business and 13x next year eps per bbrg est.looks like more to https://t.co/fOOkIib64V Look how much value @HandlerRich and the team at $JEF have stealthily created over the last 4-5 years (he'd say 30) [--] bagger since Covid lows and double over the past year. 1.6x book despite large asset management business and 13x next year eps per bbrg est.looks like more to"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1976816399688647151)  2025-10-11T01:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"An absolute tour de force by @vishalgarg1_0 Post capitulation of the meme crew was lucky timing too. $BETR is a product story. Superior data use and cost advantages. Selling mortgages And software. TAM for partnerships is large. And mortgage demand is highly elastic wrt rates. Sidoti & Company LLC hosted a fireside chat yesterday with $BETR CEO Vishal Garg and Sidoti analyst Brendan McCarthy. Watch the replay here: https://t.co/XMSiFhJVdA https://t.co/c4dOxuaWtR Sidoti & Company LLC hosted a fireside chat yesterday with $BETR CEO Vishal Garg and Sidoti analyst Brendan McCarthy. Watch the"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1978540891603177821)  2025-10-15T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Thanks. Will the Acrisure IPO ever come Easy to forget a name like BRO went nowhere from 2006-15. Need rate. M&A multiples really are sticky high. These guys can crank margin though"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1978953368962818363)  2025-10-16T22:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CedarStResearch @boujee_banker The problem for regional banks is that prime or super prime (ofc execs call it that) underwriting to small businesses and real estate can sour quickly. Completely agree that its imperative to look at non loan assets at banks and portfolios at insurers"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1979152871363903721)  2025-10-17T11:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@boujee_banker @hshdfhhdaggfg @blondesnmoney $LOB call q&a discussed the new SBA rules and impact. They see as benign for demand and for legit underwriters if not for fly by night fintechs. $NBN out next week and yes average sba loan size appears to be trending up"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1915465813412266083)  2025-04-24T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@victaurs @boujee_banker $OZK mostly recovered but not $NBN which has similar collateral and better returns. Underwriting to $80s you have to assume the sba book is trash and flow/GoS will dry up and that they cant buy big loans anymore bc m&a is weak and securitization mkt leans in more anyway"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1922718410254750185)  2025-05-14T18:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"Saw a recent college grad networking with a successful commercial insurance broker. The kid wants to go into corporate banking. No dude. You should want to be that broker. $aon $ajg $bro $wtw"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1929903170106323260)  2025-06-03T14:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Nobodys talking about the 10% drop in Berkshire Hathaway stock in the month since Warren Buffett announced his exit at the annual meeting. S&P500 is up about 6% since then. $brka $brkb $brk"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1930639056712479081)  2025-06-05T14:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Danaher needs to re-hire Larry Culp Obvious right $DHR $GE $GEV"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1947628991239618605)  2025-07-22T12:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$COST Costco market cap is 2x $UBER market cap Yet: Both had a bit under $8bn free cash flow in the LTM Both have clean balance sheets Uber FCF growing much faster"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1949307830470590758)  2025-07-27T03:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$GSHD Yikes Interest expense now crushing the P&L as well as big lack of operating leverage in Q2 Also- Franchise producers down sequentially NPS plummeting Rate softening Low retention and softening rate tough to overcome Also of interest: recent insider sales and big dividend funded with debt Also of interest: recent insider sales and big dividend funded with debt"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1949866855176294591)  2025-07-28T16:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Repost in light of @wsj article on Demotech @jeaneaglesham $SLDE has A rating. From S-1: $SLDE FL CAT Dont even plan to get an AM Best rating Very little organic production - is there any tech here Reliant on M&A great for P&L (so far) but lumpy and competition for blocks should intensify CEO is money maker but super high comp and control $SLDE FL CAT Dont even plan to get an AM Best rating Very little organic production - is there any tech here Reliant on M&A great for P&L (so far) but lumpy and competition for blocks should intensify CEO is money maker but super high comp and control"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1949920047851254167)  2025-07-28T19:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$NBN (1/2) Nice qtr but no run rate earnings is not $12/sh. Prob not even close Mostly bc SBA originations fell off a cliff in July (public info) So they wont repeat $8.2m GoS on SBA loans. Maybe $4m. And then who knows Will new @SBAgov rules match OBBB startup incentives @victaurs @boujee_banker $OZK mostly recovered but not $NBN which has similar collateral and better returns. Underwriting to $80s you have to assume the sba book is trash and flow/GoS will dry up and that they cant buy big loans anymore bc m&a is weak and securitization mkt leans in more anyway @victaurs @boujee_banker $OZK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1950205431860633656)  2025-07-29T14:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$NBN (2/2) In loan purchases NBN cant compete with likes of $BX rnuntil How's lender finance Any partnerships with sponsors available Originations solid Buffer in NBN is the Huge earnings embedded in the net discount on purchased loans. Realization timing TBDrate dependent"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1950205712912576626)  2025-07-29T14:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarReseach Check out $SLDE S-1. They explicitly say they won't get an AMBest rating and will stick with Demotech"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1950223501048119746)  2025-07-29T15:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BLDR breaking up 4% to $134 well above average sector gain. No news Interesting in context of $QXO whale hunting Others to watch are $BLD $IBP $BXC Not advice"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1955275005349990561)  2025-08-12T14:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$SLDE tough qtr. Unpredictable revenue (via purchases and organic) as mentioned below. Lower than expectations. Is there organic growth tech here Paltry - see snip. $SLDE FL CAT Dont even plan to get an AM Best rating Very little organic production - is there any tech here Reliant on M&A great for P&L (so far) but lumpy and competition for blocks should intensify CEO is money maker but super high comp and control $SLDE FL CAT Dont even plan to get an AM Best rating Very little organic production - is there any tech here Reliant on M&A great for P&L (so far) but lumpy and competition for"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1955709653309882544)  2025-08-13T19:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@long_equity $CCCS has too little pricing power too much debt and too much stock comp. Other than that"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1955770075274764557)  2025-08-13T23:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@long_equity Oligopoly - Amwins (private) / Ryan Specialty $RYAN / CRC (private) - wholesale insurance brokerage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1957241926375055553)  2025-08-18T00:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$SLDE Another 10% down since this post Without decent organic this will be seen as a melting ice cube Florida homeowners market has softened significantly M&A probably cant save $SLDE $SLDE tough qtr. Unpredictable revenue (via purchases and organic) as mentioned below. Lower than expectations. Is there organic growth tech here Paltry - see snip. https://t.co/OFjufmZxg1 $SLDE tough qtr. Unpredictable revenue (via purchases and organic) as mentioned below. Lower than expectations. Is there organic growth tech here Paltry - see snip. https://t.co/OFjufmZxg1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1960148664824775068)  2025-08-26T01:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Oh wait so $ERIE cant print cash no matter what or deserve 40x lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1960399271066562587)  2025-08-26T17:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@boujee_banker If its not the best small bank in America what is CEO Rick Wayne is a brilliant banker and investor. He does Not waste money $NBN"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1960438351036625234)  2025-08-26T20:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$POWL Up 50% since $POWL $2.3b mc 390m cash no debt. 13x PE with end markets solid and data center kicker. Order book good margin up BUT Mgmt inept w/ cash They mention both buyback And using stock for m&a. Modest capex for organic is bad excuse too 20% short float @jessecohn4 @DanielSLoeb1 $POWL $2.3b mc 390m cash no debt. 13x PE with end markets solid and data center kicker. Order book good margin up BUT Mgmt inept w/ cash They mention both buyback And using stock for m&a. Modest capex for organic is bad excuse too 20% short float @jessecohn4 @DanielSLoeb1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1961058373907927124)  2025-08-28T13:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@DJ_EBITDA lol shorting $KNSL is def a 1:39am Sat night idea"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1964649996357357769)  2025-09-07T11:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch We mentioned $PGY in subprime On auto also watch $CRMT. Under pressure"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1966126242152763833)  2025-09-11T13:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch There's pricing for a selling sponsor and pricing for post-offer performance If they selldown the rest at 20x it's still a great outcome Prime brokerage relats be damned - coverage bankers don't care anyway"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1970161864710692880)  2025-09-22T16:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"10x on $XZO is a little arbitrary based on customer concentration standing start to growth strong margins But compare that to $GWRE which trades at PE of 285x 2025A.or slow growth $VRSK at 37x LTM $HCI"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1971222329301794829)  2025-09-25T14:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@midas79_ @The_Jackal1997 @SecScottBessent @BillAckman Um every shareholder would protest Youre ignoring political dimensions plus others in play (like how many ppl are buying this who have links to UST) plus implications on multiple Also ridiculous to think UST bureaucrats care about a certain number by a certain date"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1971246853330251923)  2025-09-25T16:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$PGY down bad. FinX again realizing the hazards of subprime consumer lending Major imperative this year is discerning btw companies using AI to do previously untouchable stuff (no matter how "conservative" mgmt claims to be). versus Co's that mainly use AI for efficiency @CedarStResearch One more on $PGY. The multiple is darned rich when you consider the true Shout incl itm options rsu (p24 Q) FinX PGY influencers flat dont have the multiple right Better not have losses boys Large non-10b5 sales by cfo and prez in last [--] wks too @CedarStResearch One more on $PGY. The multiple is darned rich"  
[X Link](https://x.com/anyuser/status/1973036039267835998)  2025-09-30T14:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$BRK $OXY Warren Buffett/Vicki Hollub relat reminds me of his with Kay Graham (Wash Post) in the 70s/80s Anyway his OXY preferred has been great the common less so Multiple on OxyChem seems cheap if on trough earnings $10bn PP = 9x [----] earnings 4x [----] () Capex $685m"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1973128732803211423)  2025-09-30T20:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@modestproposal1 Agree. Tough to DIY forever especially for smid cos. But then you see a name like $HUBS crash the last [--] days. Would love to know what that was"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1973587663052787785)  2025-10-02T03:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$BRK $BRK.A $BRK.B $OXY Deal signed at $9.7bn Cheap Great outcome for Buffett - love it for him - who clearly still has OXY CEO in his pocket Ofc theres no go-shop $BRK $OXY Warren Buffett/Vicki Hollub relat reminds me of his with Kay Graham (Wash Post) in the 70s/80s Anyway his OXY preferred has been great the common less so Multiple on OxyChem seems cheap if on trough earnings $10bn PP = 9x [----] earnings 4x [----] () Capex $685m https://t.co/nJottxAKzv $BRK $OXY Warren Buffett/Vicki Hollub relat reminds me of his with Kay Graham (Wash Post) in the 70s/80s Anyway his OXY preferred has been"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1973758770238095467)  2025-10-02T14:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"For a lot of insurance company execs this is the least surprising news of the day $cb $trv $all $wrb $mkl $mmc $aon The Fair Political Practices Commission is assessing a state complaint into California's Insurance Commissioner. It's in response to a [--] On Your Side investigation exposing at least a dozen of Ricardo Lara's international trips on taxpayers' dime -- all while missing some key https://t.co/9b1cG9S1yX The Fair Political Practices Commission is assessing a state complaint into California's Insurance Commissioner. It's in response to a [--] On Your Side investigation exposing at least"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1973858970403287126)  2025-10-02T21:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BETR 's apparent product superiority and momentum aside Vishal's note below is critical when comparing Better to names like $LDI and $RKT today What seem like free lunches (holding MSRs loans) can be sources of extreme fragility Look at the [--] balance sheets. No comparison People have asked me over the years to hold loans on balance sheet hold MSRs do securitizations and hold the residual. And we have unwaveringly declined for [--] years straight. When the recession hitting the bulk of America starts to hit consumers borrowing from the array of on People have asked me over the years to hold"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1976104641181122753)  2025-10-09T01:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Gonna be a long weekend at $JEF Theyre much smaller than any G-SIB More to learn but a G-SIB with large exposure to $JEF would likely get Fed relief if abs necessary No politician cares about Handler or $JEF shareholders $JEF getting clobbered more after hours on this news. "Morgan Stanleys asset-management business asked to redeem some money it invested in a Jefferies Financial Group Inc." https://t.co/m5LmDESc84 https://t.co/3NkwFQds5h $JEF getting clobbered more after hours on this news. "Morgan Stanleys asset-management business asked to redeem some money it invested in a Jefferies"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1976815939921629552)  2025-10-11T01:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"As a % of $JEF book value the likely loss is painful but not ruinous But if somehow client confidence is lost Buffett $BRK gets a call and takes a preferred with warrants and replaces Handler with a @lloydblankfein type Gonna be a long weekend at $JEF Theyre much smaller than any G-SIB More to learn but a G-SIB with large exposure to $JEF would likely get Fed relief if abs necessary No politician cares about Handler or $JEF shareholders Gonna be a long weekend at $JEF Theyre much smaller than any G-SIB More to learn but a G-SIB with large exposure to $JEF would likely get Fed relief if abs"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1976840222504837124)  2025-10-11T02:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$JEF Not ideal As a % of $JEF book value the likely loss is painful but not ruinous But if somehow client confidence is lost Buffett $BRK gets a call and takes a preferred with warrants and replaces Handler with a @lloydblankfein type As a % of $JEF book value the likely loss is painful but not ruinous But if somehow client confidence is lost Buffett $BRK gets a call and takes a preferred with warrants and replaces Handler with a @lloydblankfein type"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1977356776954544630)  2025-10-12T12:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$FNMA $FMCC The simplest bearish explanation here is that Bessent wants full SPS conversion and Pulte disagrees but is losing the argument The tweet is an FU to Bessent and a vague enough caveat emptor IMPORTANT FOR ANYONE INTERESTED IN Fannie Mae. Please read the full risk sections that Fannie Mae has listed in their 10-K. https://t.co/h9EWaIPpL1 IMPORTANT FOR ANYONE INTERESTED IN Fannie Mae. Please read the full risk sections that Fannie Mae has listed in their 10-K. https://t.co/h9EWaIPpL1"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1977784996640313582)  2025-10-13T17:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"$OPRT cratering is a CDFI After Tricolor some borrowing from @standuquesne : "Short then investigate" Unlike Tricolor (auto) OPRT does UNsecured consumer loans to poor ppl. [---] avg score vs [---] = less default risk but little to no recovery $JEF $GS $DB do the sec'zs After #Tricolor fall $CFG Citizens Financial providing deep subprime financing to $OPRT headscratcher How does lending undocumented immigrants (low to no FICO) get through risk in a bank now https://t.co/pP25hNzefR After #Tricolor fall $CFG Citizens Financial providing deep subprime financing to $OPRT headscratcher How does"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1978532920907165806)  2025-10-15T18:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Any thoughts on the brokers today"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1978925871529377948)  2025-10-16T20:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BETR Strong bid today. Maybe down tmw but from $50/share at last weeks post to now $80. The thesis depends on mortgage rates superior AI product allowing software sales to partners and the history of Better. So potential for explosive earnings growth explains the move. An absolute tour de force by @vishalgarg1_0 Post capitulation of the meme crew was lucky timing too. $BETR is a product story. Superior data use and cost advantages. Selling mortgages And software. TAM for partnerships is large. And mortgage demand is highly elastic wrt rates. An absolute tour de force by @vishalgarg1_0 Post"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1980309234026967514)  2025-10-20T16:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch After the Western Alliance and Zions Bank loan losses Vishal tweeted about Tinman's ability to review bank loan applications. I bet very few people are underwriting use cases beyond mortgage right now"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1980348994305069204)  2025-10-20T19:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Hmm $CVNA"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1981124907368140904)  2025-10-22T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"GoS somewhat offset by higher NII from late-in-Q1 loan activity which didnt run through all of Q1 so $9-$11 RR EPS untilsomething big. EPS ofc can be volatile (iykyk). Rick seemed to imply SBA could return to prior levels in [--] mos () post govt shutdown"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1983556625542873411)  2025-10-29T15:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Insured small biz program has $10m closed already. Did I hear that right The deal was signed Sept [--] so they did $10m in the first month. The program targets a max of $25m per month. Solid. Wish they said more"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1983556626888917229)  2025-10-29T15:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@boujee_banker In a year with flat economy and no major asset quality issues. 10% under [---]. 55% 100-125. 25% 125-150. 10% higher. Depends mostly on SBA and loan buys. Sorry no single number"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1983569550391058799)  2025-10-29T16:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"Reports of dozens dead in Jamaica and elsewhere from Hurricane Melissa is terrible. Will likely rise. But dozens is also shocking compared to the over [----] killed during Hurricane Katrina"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1983886567543566491)  2025-10-30T13:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$RYAN Q3 15% OG is fantastic in this environment. When Pat bought near the end of the quarter at 30% below recent high you Had to at least dip your toe in. @CedarStResearch @SayNoToTrading Kinsale saying property rate softening was slowing meaningfully was pretty interesting. Havent seen Ryan at a multiple this low in a while. Plus the purchase by Pat at [--]. @CedarStResearch @SayNoToTrading Kinsale saying property rate softening was slowing meaningfully was pretty interesting. Havent seen Ryan at a multiple this low in a while. Plus the purchase by Pat at 51"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1983996549941358820)  2025-10-30T20:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@vishalgarg1_0 Interesting use of "banking system" here for TAM. $BETR could succeed as a mortgage technology-only company. It can be a household name if it can promptly deploy Tinman beyond mortgage"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1984243745462870247)  2025-10-31T12:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$PLTR Alex Karp attacking short sellers and Michael Burry is a bit much. He knows stock prices can get ahead of fundamentals. Plus:"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1985889019431989396)  2025-11-05T01:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Also I swear bowls are shallower than last year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1986077849426817097)  2025-11-05T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Wide range of management talent in that group. Dont forget $RYAN possibly best run of all. Some higher multiple names need rate to come back next year to justify a higher multiple. BRO went nowhere from 2006-2013"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1986171471450775919)  2025-11-05T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BETR Part of current pricing is investors thinking mortgage rates wont go low enough for buy and refi to boom. But addressing/subsidizing the home affordability crisis is such a bipartisan issue that being right on rates matters less than usual. GSE Recap/Release [---] by @RuleofLawGuy1 https://t.co/giMVpSz36q $fnma $fmcc https://t.co/JZ56tUHhXR GSE Recap/Release [---] by @RuleofLawGuy1 https://t.co/giMVpSz36q $fnma $fmcc https://t.co/JZ56tUHhXR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1989031932441547063)  2025-11-13T18:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Its pretty obvious there are Bitcoin holders moving to or at least diversifying into Zcash. Not my main focus (companies) but been interesting to watch the development the last month. $BTC $ZEC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1989139158766596222)  2025-11-14T01:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$BETR advancing our evolution into an AI-powered mortgage software provider. So increasingly not a lender. So software margins. Therefore a software multiple. With so many companies now offering bank-like products there are more partnership opportunities than ever. This morning @vishalgarg1_0 hosted our Q3 [----] call and shared moreon the execution of our three major strategic partnerships in Q3 2025; advancing our evolution into an AI-powered mortgage software provider. https://t.co/wKmHdrKhd6s funded loan volume grew 17% year over year This morning @vishalgarg1_0 hosted our Q3 [----] call and"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1989361828066111920)  2025-11-14T15:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$BETR @tinmanAI https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/national-trust-charters-fintech-cypto-b3d3e443st=t7ji1B&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/national-trust-charters-fintech-cypto-b3d3e443st=t7ji1B&reflink=article_copyURL_share"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1989362214940352776)  2025-11-14T15:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@0xMert_ If this keeps up people will start forecasting $ZEC $BTC price Parity not just 10-20% of BTC"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1989418638823362568)  2025-11-14T19:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@tinmanAI The reiteration is interesting. Only [--] views after [--] minutes is hilarious. That may change in a big way. $BETR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1990436070157164675)  2025-11-17T15:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$BETR Tinman AI math (per Q1Q2 results and CEO on Q3 call) Just [--] Partner w/ 50m customers x 0.12% penetration x $6172 contribution Profit per loan = $93m contribution Profit per QUARTER Plus D2C rev less fixed expense May ramp to this in Q2 [----] breakeven Software co"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1990808446816375044)  2025-11-18T15:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@CedarStResearch The market is pricing Optimus at $TSLA. For now its waiting - for breakeven maybe - to price Tinman at $BETR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1990830229565092271)  2025-11-18T17:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Assume $BETR turns off D2C runs Tinman with only 50m partner customers gets 15x fwd PE. Assume corporate cost is a nauseating $200m. You need 2/3 of average penetration (0.12%) to reach $44/sh. $BETR Tinman AI math (per Q1Q2 results and CEO on Q3 call) Just [--] Partner w/ 50m customers x 0.12% penetration x $6172 contribution Profit per loan = $93m contribution Profit per QUARTER Plus D2C rev less fixed expense May ramp to this in Q2 [----] breakeven Software co $BETR Tinman AI math (per Q1Q2 results and CEO on Q3 call) Just [--] Partner w/ 50m customers x 0.12% penetration x $6172 contribution"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1991909215519252847)  2025-11-21T16:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"guys where did I say it was cheap All I can guarantee is that the average person who bought bc an influencer told them to will lose money. $BETR"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1991928236268462190)  2025-11-21T17:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@WillManidis So nothing from the balance sheet. lol"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1993298660524982613)  2025-11-25T12:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Appaloosa/Tepper's [--] F esp interesting this time: Bought both $ZION and $WAL right before bad loan news. Tiny amounts tho. Bad news hits us all. New allocs to reg'l banks is notable though. Incl $TFC $KEY $CFG Also $120m new position in $FI which is down 50% since 9/30"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1993329379729195267)  2025-11-25T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@CedarStResearch @danielsethlewis Can AIG ramp ROE to CB levels Clearly some progress but looking at core roe and bv it doesn't seem that cheap"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1996951976165200112)  2025-12-05T14:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@mariojr66 @CedarStResearch CAC was heavily marketed. They did not get a deal and the market agrees"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1999485114938720540)  2025-12-12T14:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@elerianm Oh yes sign me up for all these levered middle market shitcos who arent public for a reason. Happy to pay 4.00% for the privilege instead of 0.03% for $VOO $APO"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/1999506917245223176)  2025-12-12T15:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@vishalgarg1_0 Partnerships seem slow to start. Selling your UK bank asap Odd to see HFI increase so much not profitable or barely. Ppl are looking for execution and focus"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2000571212209021147)  2025-12-15T14:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"Re. Ukraine deal with Russia Europeans have two choices: 1) less welfare but keep speaking your mother tongue 2) less welfare but start speaking Russian $PLTR $LMT $BA $NOC $RTX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2001325768429969569)  2025-12-17T16:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"$FIGR Is there a more interesting name in financials than Figure Related is title insurance cooked Like some other pilots in industry Figure's underwriting process does not require title insurance"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2001660323783196722)  2025-12-18T14:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"An $ORCL share sale to delever would improve $PSKY 's bid/Larry Ellison guarantee for $WBD $NFLX"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2001672121387246063)  2025-12-18T15:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@Mabiverse123 @CedarStResearch Think pols increasingly see Title as a scam and home affordability is bipartisan $FIGR is abt to do a secondary that results in a slug of common being on chain. Good argument it should trade at premium vs Nasdaq Worth listening to Cagney & Co - the real deal. And the margins"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2001674026616344630)  2025-12-18T15:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@a16z Most people dont willingly vaporize their social capital like thatbut itd be an interesting experiment"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2001732358442225733)  2025-12-18T19:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"@CedarStResearch @vishalgarg1_0 A marketing point - Bet few trust AI-powered if youre not telling them $ savings REGARDLESS of rate environment They cant calc savings on [--] bps and dgaf about the fed funds rate but they get No title insurance required Save $2000 Damn now youre a mainstreet hero"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2002360649205137710)  2025-12-20T12:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$BETR hired a CFO. More interestingly the CEO set up a 10b-5 plan to BUY up to $5m shares. https://www.bamsec.com/filing/162828025058400cik=1835856 https://www.bamsec.com/filing/162828025058400cik=1835856"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2003112747710681545)  2025-12-22T14:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements


"@CedarStResearch Definitely. An interesting metric on the evolving short vs. ATM/growth interplay: Days to cover has been ticking higher amid falling volume since the meme days. $BETR https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/betr/short-interest https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/betr/short-interest"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2003201804100923634)  2025-12-22T20:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@vishalgarg1_0 Hm. So if a fast growing breakeven $BETR could replace $Z Zillows mortgage operation saving it $100m pre taxand Zillow valued that at 13x thats $72/sh at 18m fd shout"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2004361952399642829)  2025-12-26T01:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@vishal_better Is Betters partner with 50m users marketing this offer"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2006371496244154793)  2025-12-31T14:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$BETR board member Bhaskar appointed in August bought [----] shares at $33.94 Dec [--]. Pocket change but timing post-meme is interesting. WSJ article today on Hunterbrook HF led me to their [----] report on $UWMC. Post-read you'll root against them. https://hntrbrk.com/uwm/ https://hntrbrk.com/uwm/"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2008237560028615080)  2026-01-05T18:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"As I've said $FIGR is the most interesting name in Financials & Market Structure. Start here if you're behind. Building on my earlier post about why a token has value (yield utility and governance) - I want to talk about RWAs on public blockchains. Warning: many of you are going to hate what I have to say here. People get excited when they see TradFi players making moves toward Building on my earlier post about why a token has value (yield utility and governance) - I want to talk about RWAs on public blockchains. Warning: many of you are going to hate what I have to say here. People get"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2008609914168766625)  2026-01-06T18:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@kejca Doesnt look great or feel right $BRK"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2008700470781485225)  2026-01-07T00:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements


"@danielsethlewis @Kalshi How to build a low/no trust society"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2008942358847738341)  2026-01-07T16:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements


"$BETR As CEO and Leah tease a near term announcement most important is whether they raised equity on the success or if they no longer need it which would suspend the current botched ATM. My bias: constructive for time horizons [--] year"  
[X Link](https://x.com/HettyGreen2020/status/2009027786506179056)  2026-01-07T22:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing

@HettyGreen2020 Avatar @HettyGreen2020 Start Makingsense

Start Makingsense posts on X about $betr, $figr, insurance, balance sheet the most. They currently have [---] followers and [---] posts still getting attention that total [---------] engagements in the last [--] hours.

Engagements: [---------] #

Engagements Line Chart

  • [--] Week [-----] +21%
  • [--] Month [------] +46%
  • [--] Months [------] +167%

Mentions: [--] #

Mentions Line Chart

  • [--] Months [---] +44%

Followers: [---] #

Followers Line Chart

  • [--] Week [---] +4.10%
  • [--] Month [---] +18%
  • [--] Months [---] +92%

CreatorRank: [---------] #

CreatorRank Line Chart

Social Influence

Social category influence finance stocks technology brands cryptocurrencies celebrities countries automotive brands currencies financial services #2376 exchanges

Social topic influence $betr, $figr, insurance, balance sheet, $xzo #3, $hci, $qxo, money, $brk, $nbn

Top accounts mentioned or mentioned by @cedarstresearch @boujeebanker @mabiverse123 @vishalgarg10 @danielsethlewis @triberuffner @danielsloeb1 @billackman @onesail @jessecohn4 @elonmusk @realdonaldtrump @junkbondinvest @dollarsanddata @daardos @vishalbetter @mcagney @adammgrossman @winnermon1 @doge

Top assets mentioned Better Home & Finance Holding Company Class A Common Stock (BETR) Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. (FIGR) Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO) QXO, Inc. Common Stock (QXO) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Pagaya Technologies Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares (PGY) Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC. (GWRE) Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. (SLDE) HUBSPOT, INC. (HUBS) Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) GMS Inc. (GMS) D R Horton Inc (DHI) GammaSwap (GS) NVR, Inc. (NVR) Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock (GSHD) Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (SDHC) Goldman Sachs (GS) Global Payments Inc (GPN) Costco Hot Dog (COST) Salesforce Inc (CRM) Now Coin (NOW) Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) Agoric (BLD) Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Ryan Specialty Group Holdings, Inc (RYAN) The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock (BWIN) PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. Common Stock (PFSI) Mario Coin (COIN) Adobe, Inc. (ADBE) Lennar Corporation (LEN) Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)

Top Social Posts

Top posts by engagements in the last [--] hours

"@elonmusk Sue the do-nothing contractors. @doge"
X Link 2025-03-21T11:07Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@elonmusk If cutting red tape is the first requirement for a Democratic Abundance Agenda that requires a @DOGE -like effort in every big Democrat-run city. Lots of luck. Democratic progress isnt about private sector growth and people know it"
X Link 2025-03-28T12:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@elonmusk Elon and SpaceX inspire the way NASA used to. The left is an envy factory"
X Link 2025-03-29T23:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@BillAckman @TrumpWarRoom @WhiteHouse must better articulate what Warren writes here and not just say tariffs will be great for our debt and save future generations. Explain the policy without jargon and demonstrate its Morality. @StephenM @realDonaldTrump @DonaldJTrumpJr"
X Link 2025-04-04T01:58Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$W Wayfair maybe now theyll finally cut stock comp 80-90%. Absolutely complacent rich management. The small cuts have barely made a difference. Staffing and comp model clearly not sustainable"
X Link 2025-04-04T03:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$X trading down because Trump still doesnt like the deal. Trump will be against it until hes notand until then will extract much more in the CFIUS process. Japan will prioritize it in trade talks and Trump can frame the deal as creating many jobs https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/trump-says-he-does-not-want-see-us-steel-go-japan-2025-04-09/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/trump-says-he-does-not-want-see-us-steel-go-japan-2025-04-09/"
X Link 2025-04-09T23:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Saul_Sadka In the grand scheme these folks are fringe characters mostly drowned out with time by other characters who come and go. Political parties are good at keeping them on the fringe"
X Link 2025-04-10T22:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Main problem with Goosehead $GSHD - mostly home insurance sold thru real estate agents - consolidation of agencies and vertical integration like $RKT will make RE firms want to own the econs with their own fast binding service - auto is small premium low margin cheaper direct"
X Link 2025-04-24T13:53Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"10m cars [--] hrs per day [--] mph 383B miles per yr (3.5T in US) $1.50 per mile $575B revenue Software margin and multiple Trillions in market cap no"
X Link 2025-04-28T16:29Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$TSLA if the board really initiated a search process without Elons knowledge Elon has a problem and a new board is needed"
X Link 2025-05-01T02:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$TSLA and its likely the Board did Not inform Elon because any normal Board would choreograph a staged departure with such an important CEO and not allow a politically-tinged surprise like this Elon has a problem on the Board"
X Link 2025-05-01T02:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$BLDR massive 3.3m share buyback at $118 in April after almost none in last quarter as share price plummeted. If FCF ignites again in H2 it will look very smart"
X Link 2025-05-01T12:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@rev_cap $BLDR April buyback questionable lifting leverage. $DFH is way too levered lots of insider selling bought an expensive plane Florida heavy Homebuilders are on a hamster wheel"
X Link 2025-05-01T19:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$TSLA Ajit Jain talking with Warren Buffett about the future of car insurance at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting. Says that with autonomous driving there will be fewer accidents but the accidents will cost more. Why Tesla cars are only getting cheaper. @Tesla"
X Link 2025-05-03T15:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$TSLA Ajit Jain of Berkshire Hathaway said today that car insurance will change completely due to autonomous driving So its shocking more people arent trying to piece together the exact economics of @Tesla FSD and instead are still focused on the legacy car sale business"
X Link 2025-05-04T01:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Berkshire Hathaways cash position has a lot to do with sales of Apple stock and few opportunities to invest in a relatively expensive market. Warren Buffett isnt setting up Greg Abel with a certain amount of cash hes just staying disciplined as always"
X Link 2025-05-05T13:12Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@avgvalueinvest Value trap unless margins turn around and rates decline"
X Link 2025-05-06T16:19Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@avgvalueinvest Probably true. Just have to accept that new management is getting fast and loose with the balance sheet and thats not good when no one knows when rates will go below 6"
X Link 2025-05-06T17:03Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@kevg1412 Hes stayed under the radar vs. Todd. Anyone know what names are his other than DVA"
X Link 2025-05-09T20:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@JTLonsdale Changes the budgeting paradigm. Prioritizes students and teachers minimizes administrators"
X Link 2025-05-10T02:04Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@awealthofcs See the Mackintosh wsj article this morn. We are still nudging the trade deficit. And other countries trade surplus. This isnt a return to pre trump47 status quo"
X Link 2025-05-12T12:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@CapstackCapital Not be to an ass butsmart money cant predict a pullback. The smart thing to do was to hold this for [--] yrs not rack up a tax bill on bursts hoping for a pull back in an obvious compounder Think long term"
X Link 2025-05-13T00:24Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@CapstackCapital Think youre right. Def a big move. Could become a little m&a dependent. Related can you imagine how much more aggressive a PE owner would be with m&a/balance sheet"
X Link 2025-05-13T00:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@DanielSLoeb1 This is part of the deal for this set. You get compensated for your sacrifice to the cause. And its an insurance policy future leaders know they can fall back on"
X Link 2025-05-13T17:08Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"$X Trump has wrung much more out of Nippon as said below. If true the admin asked for all this investment and they have now gotten it $X trading down because Trump still doesnt like the deal. Trump will be against it until hes notand until then will extract much more in the CFIUS process. Japan will prioritize it in trade talks and Trump can frame the deal as creating many jobs https://t.co/TZPUGzL6y7 $X trading down because Trump still doesnt like the deal. Trump will be against it until hes notand until then will extract much more in the CFIUS process. Japan will prioritize it in trade"
X Link 2025-05-19T19:37Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$X Admin leaks to press that it asked for the improved and massive Nippon investment to provide political cover. CFIUS reads the news $X Trump has wrung much more out of Nippon as said below. If true the admin asked for all this investment and they have now gotten it $X Trump has wrung much more out of Nippon as said below. If true the admin asked for all this investment and they have now gotten it"
X Link 2025-05-19T19:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@LDiscernment They wont see post covid level FCF for a long time. Recent buybacks have been expensive showed lack of awareness for macro weakening balance sheet. And now they have to compete against Brad Jacobs. Mgmt better tighten up"
X Link 2025-05-22T20:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$X constructive for Nippon indeed https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-panel-divided-over-nippon-steel-bid-us-steel-path-forward-seen-says-official-2025-05-22/ $X If you are winning and or in final negotiations you generally keep your mouth shut. Nippon is silent steelworkers union prez not. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-panel-divided-over-nippon-steel-bid-us-steel-path-forward-seen-says-official-2025-05-22/ $X If you are winning and or in final negotiations you generally keep your mouth shut. Nippon is silent steelworkers union prez not"
X Link 2025-05-22T22:43Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"One obvious market crash that would likely prompt Warren Buffett to deploy his cash is war between China and Taiwan"
X Link 2025-06-03T10:37Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$FCNCA This is the way"
X Link 2025-06-03T14:35Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Teslaconomics @grok lots of people probably thought robots would follow FSD here. Tell us more about Tesla Energy and its potential scale"
X Link 2025-06-03T14:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@CPIWealth Absolute nonsense. Just buy an S&P index fund. Thats plenty diversified plenty liquid (unlike privates) lowest cost (unlike privates). RIAs deserve about 0.02% not the 1% they charge you"
X Link 2025-06-03T19:27Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Elon Musk and Trump will be fine. Elon needs government contracts and hates woke culture. Republicans need Elons money. $TSLA $DJT"
X Link 2025-06-06T13:06Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$X Both sides still need/want a deal. But ofc Trump does not care whether shareholders get $55 or $34. Obvious downside asymmetry at $51.50. Wanting last dollar is dumb especially in merger arb. $X 🫡 Economic reality won. And Trump drove a great result for US Steel workers. $X investors who didnt get confused by union politics profited. $X 🫡 Economic reality won. And Trump drove a great result for US Steel workers. $X investors who didnt get confused by union politics profited"
X Link 2025-06-13T13:54Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Oakmont: a freeway runs through it. Seriously whats the appeal Oh the rough is long. Grass grows. Course has no character #usopen"
X Link 2025-06-15T02:25Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Brad Landers ICE stunt will siphon leftist votes from Zohran Mamdani - votes he badly needs if he has any hope of beating Cuomo. Polymarket betting odds reflecting this"
X Link 2025-06-17T22:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$AMZN (Maybe) Conservative numbers re. the Jassy letter: 350k corporate employees (best # chat could find). Fire 25%. Takes a few yrs. $210k flc per employee Save $18.4bn X30 $550bn value Current market cap is $2.3bn"
X Link 2025-06-18T14:32Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@junkbondinvest Your annuity is safe. They promise"
X Link 2025-06-19T00:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$GMS Recall $QXO got help from tariff tantrum in Beacon $100-105 is so accretive to them and $HD. Its a few months cash flow for HD. Massive discount from what GMS board should demand based on even slow growth DCF Jacobs low ball initial bid tactic should be known by now"
X Link 2025-06-20T13:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$HD and $QXO moving higher this morning says a lot about current price"
X Link 2025-06-20T14:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$GMS Shocker that RBC says $QXO is most likely to win. Its the only known bid And RBC has been JBR on QXO deals recently and just a co manager on $HD debt"
X Link 2025-06-20T15:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$QXO letter to $GMS is interesting not just in ripping the firms performance in a tough environment but outright questioning the CEOs integrity (stock moved after a meeting apparently Barely). Letter signed by CFO not CEO Jacobs. Hmm. By the way is the $HD bid real"
X Link 2025-06-20T18:08Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"With respect to the takeover speculation in the stock we also note the steep rise in your share price following our meeting on May [--] [----] in New York as well as a research report by Raymond James which resulted from a non-deal roadshow with you and your CFO stating that"
X Link 2025-06-20T19:23Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"GMS was a likely acquisition target and GMSs management was willing to entertain a sale. Most recently we have heard from industry participants that J.P. Morgan and Jefferies have been aggressively marketing the Company for sale. Is that nothing Thoughts @laurenthomas"
X Link 2025-06-20T19:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"leftists- Pres Trump and SecDef Hegseth will this mission be inclusive If not were telling the New York Times Democrats just need to learn a woman was flying one of the B-2s and theyll support the mission that destroyed Irans nuclear sites Ofc they didnt get a heads up"
X Link 2025-06-22T19:13Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@dollarsanddata This policy has wide bipartisan support as shown for decades. Why Because the rich are taxed enormously along the way (at corporate and personal income levels). And savings = investment. Anyway wealth is rarely generational in America. Always avoid temptations to envy"
X Link 2025-06-23T12:51Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"Tough spot for QXO since Home Depot can pay anything for GMS (w/in reason) and it wont change HD And a HD win wont impact its ability to compete on future deals QXO must lean in - and it can given the stock run up - even if it writes that target sucks and mgmt is unethical"
X Link 2025-06-23T16:59Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$GMS $QXO $HD"
X Link 2025-06-23T17:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"So $HD has lots of room to make a $QXO win as painful (dilutive & levering) as possible. And it must given deal size and QXOs potential"
X Link 2025-06-23T17:49Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@liensofnewyork You mean the ideas of the Democratic base. Maybe nyc needs to cycle restore those 1970s memories. Enjoy the free bus rides (when the mechanics arent striking)"
X Link 2025-06-24T22:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$GMS $HD Win Home Depot winning at $110 aligns with below. Plenty accretive $QXO couldnt go $105. HD kill shot was smart vs. nickel and dime QXO ripping GMS in the letter was to ward off other bidders and depress board expectations. Accusing the CEO of lawbreaking was awful Tough spot for QXO since Home Depot can pay anything for GMS (w/in reason) and it wont change HD And a HD win wont impact its ability to compete on future deals QXO must lean in - and it can given the stock run up - even if it writes that target sucks and mgmt is unethical Tough spot for QXO since Home Depot can pay"
X Link 2025-06-30T12:52Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$110 is 11x ltm ebitda Odd $QXO was anchored below it (paying the Beacon x) with the Jacobs premium on QXO (high teens x) Other high quality targets arent cheaper multiples have reset some lower rates expected plenty of large competitors So one obvious next poss step"
X Link 2025-06-30T13:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Btw total lack of imagination and strategic thinking from all the bank research shops that wouldnt set a target $95 even after Home Depot didnt refute reports it bid. Oh the premium feels high lets not even look at the multiple or do a dcf Typical"
X Link 2025-06-30T14:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Here we go. $QXO needs to go big to avoid competition like HD in the GMS process (see below) Could do MoE with $BLDR with QXO shh prob owning 46% PF. All stock. Brad would be CEO BLDR is cyclical but great pro reach and QXO can bring needed digital and ops/margin help Is Home Depot the cheapest stock in this market Must Brad go after Builders First Source Is Home Depot the cheapest stock in this market Must Brad go after Builders First Source"
X Link 2025-07-01T19:05Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$TSLA Like any rich donor Elon cant believe he doesnt own the GOP after contributing $400mm But Trump owns it and ideas (and voters) are more powerful than money Swing senators are already the moderating force in US politics America party wont work"
X Link 2025-07-07T12:45Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$QXO Market clearly thinks $BLD may be in their sights. But prob not huge premium from here Big so not much competition in auction. $HD wont be back after SRS and $GMS Strategically fits good alternative after losing GMS"
X Link 2025-07-09T13:48Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Think $BLDR is as likely. Esp with $BLD buying Progressive (installation) With the premium needed in all stock deal $QXO would prob own 44-47% PF. Brad as CEO obv Both firms know M&A and how to use a balance sheet Distro powerhouse Couple privates out there as well"
X Link 2025-07-09T23:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Would have huge synergies. Presumably Brad thinks $BLDR is grossly inefficient and can do much better BLDR was handed a pandemic gift but has been average at best for over a year and new CEO doesnt sound ready"
X Link 2025-07-10T00:09Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"1/3 cash 2/3 stock should easily keep $QXO PF ownership over 50% Obv use as much cash as possible given the Jacobs premium on the stock"
X Link 2025-07-10T00:22Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@tseides On Dispersion - cant cherry pick best funds in advance (that avg person cant access anyway) Avg person will be crushed by fees on the diworsified result of 100s of avg but lboable middle market cos Munger said stupid because he knew how itd turn out. Its stupid again"
X Link 2025-07-10T13:05Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$QXO $BLDR napkin w inexact current QXO BS (lot has happened since 3/31) $175 pp = 11x [--] AEBITDA (no synergies) 80% stock=51% QXO own at $22/sh 3.4x [----] PF net lev on $3.55b (huge FCF) Large value creation if you stay anywhere close to current Jacobs premium Not advice"
X Link 2025-07-10T13:55Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$QXO $BLDR napkin (incl BLDR April buyback and May notes) $160/sh PP=12x $1.9b '25E aebitda (mgmt midpt) 4.0x pf '25E net lev implies 45% cash on $2.9b pf '25E aebitda QXO would own 72% pf at $22/sh $22/sh is 14.5x $3.35b '26E aebitda Not advice"
X Link 2025-07-13T14:25Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"$GPN Elliott stake news GPN overpayed for deals for yrs bc they couldnt hit 10% organic. Ex CEO was banker deputies still there FCF solid. Just delever do buybacks no more big deals.but investors can't trust mgmt. Til now Elliott should replace mgmt find growth"
X Link 2025-07-16T13:54Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Looking at $BMNR or just buying $ETH on $COIN or neither. (doesn't measure any non-ETH ops which look immaterial have no idea enlighten me)"
X Link 2025-07-16T14:42Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@cmo040958 Maybe a little light but decent premium to todays price Its about a turn GMS and Beacon aligns with reasonable DCF imo $QXO wouldnt pay for synergies. Competitive auction Who If so maybe you must Tougher environment margins down not superbly managed last year"
X Link 2025-07-16T23:32Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@WSJopinion @Mike_Pence You hijacked an obit to lament Republican policies that actually win ones that barely deviate from Reaganism. God forbid we promise voters we wont touch social security. @wsj you dont understand the country like you think you do. @realDonaldTrump @JDVance @WhiteHouse"
X Link 2025-07-21T01:54Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@daardos For a cash flow view use their EBITDA table adjust non-cash items like SBC and D&A Current price still doesn't imply That much growth or op lev in next few years Be careful re. market cap. Share count is more 105m rn (depends). See filing. That's why $PGY isn't $80 right now"
X Link 2025-07-22T17:00Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@daardos Yup I didn't say delete that line. Gotta make an assumption. Risk retention is low it isn't a bank. Agree that's the appeal. if they have default problems again this is going back to $10-15"
X Link 2025-07-22T17:12Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@daardos Exchangeable notes will be paid in cash unless they're idiots or severe problems.due [----] Bottom [--] rows are in future space them out over a few years All others look ITM (sure some forfeits) but TSM trims dilution a bit 105m is round number Add margin of safety"
X Link 2025-07-22T17:39Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@cmo040958 Got scared by tariffs Dunno prob not But its not that cheap imo Surely they want to find deals for less"
X Link 2025-07-23T16:30Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"Why do cash rich mature often cyclical businesses pay stock comp Vast majority of employees sell it once it vests. Its such blather that stock makes people more virtuous owners $ABNB is a great example Plenty others $BRK doesnt but pays large cash amounts to its best"
X Link 2025-07-23T18:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@MMoney642 Think multiple expands ahead of AV inflection point as $UBER will become even More of a toll biz one thats less cyclical/discretionary Also FCF on incremental revenue dollar is stunning rn And $TSLA will have to join Uber bc of the network and bc rides are a commodity"
X Link 2025-07-26T13:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@MMoney642 Imagine you own a $TSLA and Elon says you cant use $UBER app to make money on the FSD you pay for Unthinkable"
X Link 2025-07-26T13:28Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@Greenwaterbot11 @liensofnewyork We get it. You want a mini socialist paradise for a building Understand that the real socialists say you have zero private property right - they will come after you too I can see it now. Airbnb allowed in NYC but only for illegals. You got a problem with that"
X Link 2025-07-26T15:41Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$GPN [--] trading days since Worldpay deal - if Elliott Management bought 200k shs/day they would hit 5% ownership and have to file 13D very soon Elliott only needs to babysit (or replace) GPN mgmt and stop stupid stuff (bad M&A) that disgusted investors last [--] yrs Lots of FCF"
X Link 2025-07-28T15:15Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@boujee_banker But are you also underwriting $12 in NTM (starting July 2025) $2.60/sh next qtr is $10.40 RR maybe theres some early accretion and loan buys and they hit $11/sh in NTM But SBA looks down so bad you might have $1m GoS in [--] qtrs"
X Link 2025-07-29T16:34Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$UBER Uber One napkin 2026E Just the fee NOT incl cross sell 45m subscribers at $11/mo (30m as of Feb was 60% growth) 70% op margin = fcf = $4.2B 20x $83B value vs. $183B = UBER market cap"
X Link 2025-07-31T03:03Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$UBER Uber One napkin 2026E Just the fee no rev syn 40m subscribers at $11/mo (30m reported as of Feb was 60% growth paying $10) 70% op margin = fcf = $3.7B 20x $74B vs. $183B market cap @DanielSLoeb1 thoughts @BillAckman amirite"
X Link 2025-07-31T14:20Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@convexititties $UBER prints $300m of FCF every [--] weeks justttt fyi"
X Link 2025-07-31T16:58Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$UBER With free cash flow ramping Fast hope for a tanked qtr for the sake of cheaper buybacks Uber is essential to AVs for Optimization/utilization which governs profitability. Going alone too tough Plus more price comp with many disparate actors and no marketplace $TSLA"
X Link 2025-08-01T13:08Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"$PLTR has 1/5 the free cash flow that $UBER has but 2x the market cap $COST has about the same free cash flow as $UBER and 2x the market cap"
X Link 2025-08-04T21:16Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@galkrubiner @Pagayaltd Nice qtr. The way you described the strategy it sounds like PGY wants to be a sort of Palantir for incremental credit origination at every US bank. Do it"
X Link 2025-08-07T18:43Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@modestproposal1 Yep but a key issue is what are you willing to pay $HUBS for example for a commodity agent. And the seats pricing model is vaporizing"
X Link 2025-08-08T13:40Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Many elite hedge funds with big positions in old cant miss software firms are kind of melting down right now $CRM $HUBS $GWRE $WDAY $NOW"
X Link 2025-08-10T18:35Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$MNDY $ADBE These all should be 15-20x FCF now No moat"
X Link 2025-08-11T13:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$FNMA $FMCC Trump seems serious about an IPO. Lots of momentum here and a very obvious value creation oppty for all incl taxpayers Been in the works a long time see below IPO Docs surely being prepped now Thoughts"
X Link 2025-08-11T23:36Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@dollarsanddata Thats a big one but actually you need to invert. Most life changing is $100000 back to $10000"
X Link 2025-08-12T12:19Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@boujee_banker Homebuilders if you think margins can recover"
X Link 2025-08-12T23:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"$GPN Moving higher day before Elliott Management expected to file 13F This mgmt team just needs adult supervision to stay disciplined If it can find growth too look out $GPN Elliott stake news GPN overpayed for deals for yrs bc they couldnt hit 10% organic. Ex CEO was banker deputies still there FCF solid. Just delever do buybacks no more big deals.but investors can't trust mgmt. Til now Elliott should replace mgmt find growth $GPN Elliott stake news GPN overpayed for deals for yrs bc they couldnt hit 10% organic. Ex CEO was banker deputies still there FCF solid. Just delever do buybacks no"
X Link 2025-08-14T18:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@boujee_banker Not so humblebrag fwiw- $BRK 13F shows Buffett bought $LEN and $DHI last qtr"
X Link 2025-08-14T21:10Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@DreamingFlorida Thx interesting Other possibility is a large synthetic position. Not hard to build fast avoids 13D Maybe they bought actual shares in July maybe not. Volume wasnt that heavy $GPN"
X Link 2025-08-15T00:25Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@BillAckman If Washington state wanted to be part of Canada would the Feds let them"
X Link 2025-08-20T02:28Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@CedarStResearch If only their NIM met the same standard"
X Link 2025-09-01T17:44Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@Mr_Neutral_Man At any decent gym the fit chic girls have been wearing ALO or something fancy for over a year now $COST has knockoffs now too $LULU"
X Link 2025-09-05T02:26Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"Understand - The hardcore DEI ppl running cities see white deaths as collateral damage reparations even Their DEI omelette requires breaking eggs White women are obviously the most vulnerable easiest targets Iryna Zarutska Charlotte NC Never forget"
X Link 2025-09-10T13:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@CedarStResearch @santh0ny Another name with this kind of credit risk is $PGY often seen as a no-brainer on FinX. Retention. $UPST"
X Link 2025-09-10T14:58Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"$FNMA $FMCC Hit pieces coming out on @pulte from power-obsessed congressmen upset they can't control Fannie and Freddie forever. See Politico @realDonaldTrump should ignore even if Pulte likes to tweet about Fed officials breaking laws $FNMA $FMCC Bc many commentators are confused: It's 100% possible for the IPO(s) to happen by year-end They're already SEC filers - S-1 comments & marketing can go fast Only need political agreement on recap/release terms - Not congressional approval Been planning for [--] yr $FNMA $FMCC Bc many commentators are confused: It's 100% possible for the IPO(s) to"
X Link 2025-09-10T15:24Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"$FNMA $FMCC Republican congressmen are deflecting this onto Bessent but they are the ones to blame. Call them. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/09/republicans-congress-bessent-pulte-trump-00552586 https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/09/republicans-congress-bessent-pulte-trump-00552586"
X Link 2025-09-10T15:25Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@CedarStResearch @santh0ny But Cedar if rates go down it'll moon The smaller the position the louder the cries $PGY $UPST"
X Link 2025-09-10T15:27Z [--] followers, [----] engagements

"@CedarStResearch One more on $PGY. The multiple is darned rich when you consider the true Shout incl itm options rsu (p24 Q) FinX PGY influencers flat dont have the multiple right Better not have losses boys Large non-10b5 sales by cfo and prez in last [--] wks too"
X Link 2025-09-11T13:24Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"The transgender LGBT flag will now be seen as a symbol of terrorism and intimidation by most of America Charlie Kirk Shooter Engraving"
X Link 2025-09-11T15:30Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@realchrisrufo Aka woke white women Democrats feed on their guilt dont care about their safety See Iryna Zarutska"
X Link 2025-09-11T17:48Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@junkbondinvest Which one"
X Link 2025-09-15T14:04Z [--] followers, [---] engagements

"@junkbondinvest Presumably Jones DesLauriers dba Navacord 8x leverage per fitch"
X Link 2025-09-15T14:26Z [--] followers, [--] engagements

"@AdvisorsMidwest Been happening for years Been priced for a long time If mortgage rates go lower there will be shortages even in the South"
X Link 2025-09-19T15:33Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$FNMA $FMCC OTC stocks can see huge volatility Can be a fund manager hearing something they didnt like or outright manipulation dollar amount traded so far isnt huge but ppl with a stop loss get hit SPS treatment needs to be ironed out asap. Partial conversion being priced"
X Link 2025-09-19T19:15Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@midas79_ @The_Jackal1997 @SecScottBessent @BillAckman Nonsense. Multiple matters"
X Link 2025-09-25T14:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@mvcinvesting BETR. became sort of a meme this week but the history is interesting and mgmt expects to breakeven next year Product Econs are differentiated Exponential relat btw mortgage rates and revenue/earnings if former decline"
X Link 2025-09-25T18:05Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@CedarStResearch A must-have view if owning a name like $HUBS (which has rebounded a bit lately) You wonder how many firms esp Smid universe want to build and manage agents or are capable of it (even if its easy now)"
X Link 2025-09-26T00:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Terrible US crowd at Bethpage Black for the Ryder Cup Embarrassingly quiet Next time @RyderCupUSA needs to do tryouts for [----] local crazies who get a free ticket they cant resell and cant bring a phone in People who spend $1000 for a ticket arent fit @chambleebrandel"
X Link 2025-09-27T00:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@heygump @RyderCupUSA @chambleebrandel So fans should feel fine to quit on the team after an hour And they should only cheer for good shots Got it. That opinion is why it was so awful"
X Link 2025-09-27T00:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@vishalgarg1_0 @rabois @Mabiverse123 @Ray5D @ericjackson @CanadaKaz Vishal so generous dignifying ignorant X retail questions If ppl would just look at Tinman AI rev contrib margin and growth. Ever heard of an 8k If they listened to earnings calls If they understood Tinman pship TAM and if $BETR ever publicizes pships they have talked abt"
X Link 2025-09-28T01:07Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@vishalgarg1_0 @rabois @Mabiverse123 @Ray5D @ericjackson @CanadaKaz Love seeing @vishalgarg1_0 show a softer side given history. We all get it. But hes a Karp deep down and if you spend [--] minutes listening to him you will know it He dgaf about the $open vs $betr retail flow competition Rabois ratiod comment tells you all you need to know"
X Link 2025-09-28T01:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BETR If u owned it $25 biggest fear was buyout at $40 or PIPE at $25 by a @plaffont type So meme launch had good timing helped by pships and now ATM with press If run rating $40-70m earnings at 2026ye its still interesting Tinman AI biz deserves big multiple"
X Link 2025-10-02T13:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Akshay_Naheta @Bakkt Up-C is an overhang for many reasons. Its a half assed way of going public so applaud you evaluating 1) Disclose valuation of Up-C/TRA-use third party 2) Let Class A shareholders to do their own paid by Company 3) Dilute at generous VWAP to avoid impression of gaming valuation"
X Link 2025-10-03T14:45Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@Akshay_Naheta @Bakkt $BKKT"
X Link 2025-10-03T14:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@rule_of_law_guy Builders love it shares rocketand existing home sales plummet homesellers/voters lose their minds saying homebuilders are getting rich off me. Trump orders next Fed chair to buy $4T MBS in [----] tripling its current hold and driving rates below 5% setting off resi boom"
X Link 2025-10-06T22:57Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"checks $JEF CDS Look how much value @HandlerRich and the team at $JEF have stealthily created over the last 4-5 years (he'd say 30) [--] bagger since Covid lows and double over the past year. 1.6x book despite large asset management business and 13x next year eps per bbrg est.looks like more to https://t.co/fOOkIib64V Look how much value @HandlerRich and the team at $JEF have stealthily created over the last 4-5 years (he'd say 30) [--] bagger since Covid lows and double over the past year. 1.6x book despite large asset management business and 13x next year eps per bbrg est.looks like more to"
X Link 2025-10-11T01:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"An absolute tour de force by @vishalgarg1_0 Post capitulation of the meme crew was lucky timing too. $BETR is a product story. Superior data use and cost advantages. Selling mortgages And software. TAM for partnerships is large. And mortgage demand is highly elastic wrt rates. Sidoti & Company LLC hosted a fireside chat yesterday with $BETR CEO Vishal Garg and Sidoti analyst Brendan McCarthy. Watch the replay here: https://t.co/XMSiFhJVdA https://t.co/c4dOxuaWtR Sidoti & Company LLC hosted a fireside chat yesterday with $BETR CEO Vishal Garg and Sidoti analyst Brendan McCarthy. Watch the"
X Link 2025-10-15T19:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CedarStResearch Thanks. Will the Acrisure IPO ever come Easy to forget a name like BRO went nowhere from 2006-15. Need rate. M&A multiples really are sticky high. These guys can crank margin though"
X Link 2025-10-16T22:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@CedarStResearch @boujee_banker The problem for regional banks is that prime or super prime (ofc execs call it that) underwriting to small businesses and real estate can sour quickly. Completely agree that its imperative to look at non loan assets at banks and portfolios at insurers"
X Link 2025-10-17T11:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@boujee_banker @hshdfhhdaggfg @blondesnmoney $LOB call q&a discussed the new SBA rules and impact. They see as benign for demand and for legit underwriters if not for fly by night fintechs. $NBN out next week and yes average sba loan size appears to be trending up"
X Link 2025-04-24T18:00Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@victaurs @boujee_banker $OZK mostly recovered but not $NBN which has similar collateral and better returns. Underwriting to $80s you have to assume the sba book is trash and flow/GoS will dry up and that they cant buy big loans anymore bc m&a is weak and securitization mkt leans in more anyway"
X Link 2025-05-14T18:19Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"Saw a recent college grad networking with a successful commercial insurance broker. The kid wants to go into corporate banking. No dude. You should want to be that broker. $aon $ajg $bro $wtw"
X Link 2025-06-03T14:09Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Nobodys talking about the 10% drop in Berkshire Hathaway stock in the month since Warren Buffett announced his exit at the annual meeting. S&P500 is up about 6% since then. $brka $brkb $brk"
X Link 2025-06-05T14:53Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Danaher needs to re-hire Larry Culp Obvious right $DHR $GE $GEV"
X Link 2025-07-22T12:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$COST Costco market cap is 2x $UBER market cap Yet: Both had a bit under $8bn free cash flow in the LTM Both have clean balance sheets Uber FCF growing much faster"
X Link 2025-07-27T03:16Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$GSHD Yikes Interest expense now crushing the P&L as well as big lack of operating leverage in Q2 Also- Franchise producers down sequentially NPS plummeting Rate softening Low retention and softening rate tough to overcome Also of interest: recent insider sales and big dividend funded with debt Also of interest: recent insider sales and big dividend funded with debt"
X Link 2025-07-28T16:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Repost in light of @wsj article on Demotech @jeaneaglesham $SLDE has A rating. From S-1: $SLDE FL CAT Dont even plan to get an AM Best rating Very little organic production - is there any tech here Reliant on M&A great for P&L (so far) but lumpy and competition for blocks should intensify CEO is money maker but super high comp and control $SLDE FL CAT Dont even plan to get an AM Best rating Very little organic production - is there any tech here Reliant on M&A great for P&L (so far) but lumpy and competition for blocks should intensify CEO is money maker but super high comp and control"
X Link 2025-07-28T19:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$NBN (1/2) Nice qtr but no run rate earnings is not $12/sh. Prob not even close Mostly bc SBA originations fell off a cliff in July (public info) So they wont repeat $8.2m GoS on SBA loans. Maybe $4m. And then who knows Will new @SBAgov rules match OBBB startup incentives @victaurs @boujee_banker $OZK mostly recovered but not $NBN which has similar collateral and better returns. Underwriting to $80s you have to assume the sba book is trash and flow/GoS will dry up and that they cant buy big loans anymore bc m&a is weak and securitization mkt leans in more anyway @victaurs @boujee_banker $OZK"
X Link 2025-07-29T14:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$NBN (2/2) In loan purchases NBN cant compete with likes of $BX rnuntil How's lender finance Any partnerships with sponsors available Originations solid Buffer in NBN is the Huge earnings embedded in the net discount on purchased loans. Realization timing TBDrate dependent"
X Link 2025-07-29T14:44Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CedarReseach Check out $SLDE S-1. They explicitly say they won't get an AMBest rating and will stick with Demotech"
X Link 2025-07-29T15:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BLDR breaking up 4% to $134 well above average sector gain. No news Interesting in context of $QXO whale hunting Others to watch are $BLD $IBP $BXC Not advice"
X Link 2025-08-12T14:27Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$SLDE tough qtr. Unpredictable revenue (via purchases and organic) as mentioned below. Lower than expectations. Is there organic growth tech here Paltry - see snip. $SLDE FL CAT Dont even plan to get an AM Best rating Very little organic production - is there any tech here Reliant on M&A great for P&L (so far) but lumpy and competition for blocks should intensify CEO is money maker but super high comp and control $SLDE FL CAT Dont even plan to get an AM Best rating Very little organic production - is there any tech here Reliant on M&A great for P&L (so far) but lumpy and competition for"
X Link 2025-08-13T19:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@long_equity $CCCS has too little pricing power too much debt and too much stock comp. Other than that"
X Link 2025-08-13T23:14Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@long_equity Oligopoly - Amwins (private) / Ryan Specialty $RYAN / CRC (private) - wholesale insurance brokerage"
X Link 2025-08-18T00:43Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$SLDE Another 10% down since this post Without decent organic this will be seen as a melting ice cube Florida homeowners market has softened significantly M&A probably cant save $SLDE $SLDE tough qtr. Unpredictable revenue (via purchases and organic) as mentioned below. Lower than expectations. Is there organic growth tech here Paltry - see snip. https://t.co/OFjufmZxg1 $SLDE tough qtr. Unpredictable revenue (via purchases and organic) as mentioned below. Lower than expectations. Is there organic growth tech here Paltry - see snip. https://t.co/OFjufmZxg1"
X Link 2025-08-26T01:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CedarStResearch Oh wait so $ERIE cant print cash no matter what or deserve 40x lol"
X Link 2025-08-26T17:49Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@boujee_banker If its not the best small bank in America what is CEO Rick Wayne is a brilliant banker and investor. He does Not waste money $NBN"
X Link 2025-08-26T20:25Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$POWL Up 50% since $POWL $2.3b mc 390m cash no debt. 13x PE with end markets solid and data center kicker. Order book good margin up BUT Mgmt inept w/ cash They mention both buyback And using stock for m&a. Modest capex for organic is bad excuse too 20% short float @jessecohn4 @DanielSLoeb1 $POWL $2.3b mc 390m cash no debt. 13x PE with end markets solid and data center kicker. Order book good margin up BUT Mgmt inept w/ cash They mention both buyback And using stock for m&a. Modest capex for organic is bad excuse too 20% short float @jessecohn4 @DanielSLoeb1"
X Link 2025-08-28T13:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@DJ_EBITDA lol shorting $KNSL is def a 1:39am Sat night idea"
X Link 2025-09-07T11:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CedarStResearch We mentioned $PGY in subprime On auto also watch $CRMT. Under pressure"
X Link 2025-09-11T13:06Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CedarStResearch There's pricing for a selling sponsor and pricing for post-offer performance If they selldown the rest at 20x it's still a great outcome Prime brokerage relats be damned - coverage bankers don't care anyway"
X Link 2025-09-22T16:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"10x on $XZO is a little arbitrary based on customer concentration standing start to growth strong margins But compare that to $GWRE which trades at PE of 285x 2025A.or slow growth $VRSK at 37x LTM $HCI"
X Link 2025-09-25T14:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@midas79_ @The_Jackal1997 @SecScottBessent @BillAckman Um every shareholder would protest Youre ignoring political dimensions plus others in play (like how many ppl are buying this who have links to UST) plus implications on multiple Also ridiculous to think UST bureaucrats care about a certain number by a certain date"
X Link 2025-09-25T16:14Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$PGY down bad. FinX again realizing the hazards of subprime consumer lending Major imperative this year is discerning btw companies using AI to do previously untouchable stuff (no matter how "conservative" mgmt claims to be). versus Co's that mainly use AI for efficiency @CedarStResearch One more on $PGY. The multiple is darned rich when you consider the true Shout incl itm options rsu (p24 Q) FinX PGY influencers flat dont have the multiple right Better not have losses boys Large non-10b5 sales by cfo and prez in last [--] wks too @CedarStResearch One more on $PGY. The multiple is darned rich"
X Link 2025-09-30T14:43Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"$BRK $OXY Warren Buffett/Vicki Hollub relat reminds me of his with Kay Graham (Wash Post) in the 70s/80s Anyway his OXY preferred has been great the common less so Multiple on OxyChem seems cheap if on trough earnings $10bn PP = 9x [----] earnings 4x [----] () Capex $685m"
X Link 2025-09-30T20:52Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@modestproposal1 Agree. Tough to DIY forever especially for smid cos. But then you see a name like $HUBS crash the last [--] days. Would love to know what that was"
X Link 2025-10-02T03:15Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$BRK $BRK.A $BRK.B $OXY Deal signed at $9.7bn Cheap Great outcome for Buffett - love it for him - who clearly still has OXY CEO in his pocket Ofc theres no go-shop $BRK $OXY Warren Buffett/Vicki Hollub relat reminds me of his with Kay Graham (Wash Post) in the 70s/80s Anyway his OXY preferred has been great the common less so Multiple on OxyChem seems cheap if on trough earnings $10bn PP = 9x [----] earnings 4x [----] () Capex $685m https://t.co/nJottxAKzv $BRK $OXY Warren Buffett/Vicki Hollub relat reminds me of his with Kay Graham (Wash Post) in the 70s/80s Anyway his OXY preferred has been"
X Link 2025-10-02T14:35Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"For a lot of insurance company execs this is the least surprising news of the day $cb $trv $all $wrb $mkl $mmc $aon The Fair Political Practices Commission is assessing a state complaint into California's Insurance Commissioner. It's in response to a [--] On Your Side investigation exposing at least a dozen of Ricardo Lara's international trips on taxpayers' dime -- all while missing some key https://t.co/9b1cG9S1yX The Fair Political Practices Commission is assessing a state complaint into California's Insurance Commissioner. It's in response to a [--] On Your Side investigation exposing at least"
X Link 2025-10-02T21:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BETR 's apparent product superiority and momentum aside Vishal's note below is critical when comparing Better to names like $LDI and $RKT today What seem like free lunches (holding MSRs loans) can be sources of extreme fragility Look at the [--] balance sheets. No comparison People have asked me over the years to hold loans on balance sheet hold MSRs do securitizations and hold the residual. And we have unwaveringly declined for [--] years straight. When the recession hitting the bulk of America starts to hit consumers borrowing from the array of on People have asked me over the years to hold"
X Link 2025-10-09T01:57Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Gonna be a long weekend at $JEF Theyre much smaller than any G-SIB More to learn but a G-SIB with large exposure to $JEF would likely get Fed relief if abs necessary No politician cares about Handler or $JEF shareholders $JEF getting clobbered more after hours on this news. "Morgan Stanleys asset-management business asked to redeem some money it invested in a Jefferies Financial Group Inc." https://t.co/m5LmDESc84 https://t.co/3NkwFQds5h $JEF getting clobbered more after hours on this news. "Morgan Stanleys asset-management business asked to redeem some money it invested in a Jefferies"
X Link 2025-10-11T01:03Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"As a % of $JEF book value the likely loss is painful but not ruinous But if somehow client confidence is lost Buffett $BRK gets a call and takes a preferred with warrants and replaces Handler with a @lloydblankfein type Gonna be a long weekend at $JEF Theyre much smaller than any G-SIB More to learn but a G-SIB with large exposure to $JEF would likely get Fed relief if abs necessary No politician cares about Handler or $JEF shareholders Gonna be a long weekend at $JEF Theyre much smaller than any G-SIB More to learn but a G-SIB with large exposure to $JEF would likely get Fed relief if abs"
X Link 2025-10-11T02:40Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"$JEF Not ideal As a % of $JEF book value the likely loss is painful but not ruinous But if somehow client confidence is lost Buffett $BRK gets a call and takes a preferred with warrants and replaces Handler with a @lloydblankfein type As a % of $JEF book value the likely loss is painful but not ruinous But if somehow client confidence is lost Buffett $BRK gets a call and takes a preferred with warrants and replaces Handler with a @lloydblankfein type"
X Link 2025-10-12T12:52Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"$FNMA $FMCC The simplest bearish explanation here is that Bessent wants full SPS conversion and Pulte disagrees but is losing the argument The tweet is an FU to Bessent and a vague enough caveat emptor IMPORTANT FOR ANYONE INTERESTED IN Fannie Mae. Please read the full risk sections that Fannie Mae has listed in their 10-K. https://t.co/h9EWaIPpL1 IMPORTANT FOR ANYONE INTERESTED IN Fannie Mae. Please read the full risk sections that Fannie Mae has listed in their 10-K. https://t.co/h9EWaIPpL1"
X Link 2025-10-13T17:14Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"$OPRT cratering is a CDFI After Tricolor some borrowing from @standuquesne : "Short then investigate" Unlike Tricolor (auto) OPRT does UNsecured consumer loans to poor ppl. [---] avg score vs [---] = less default risk but little to no recovery $JEF $GS $DB do the sec'zs After #Tricolor fall $CFG Citizens Financial providing deep subprime financing to $OPRT headscratcher How does lending undocumented immigrants (low to no FICO) get through risk in a bank now https://t.co/pP25hNzefR After #Tricolor fall $CFG Citizens Financial providing deep subprime financing to $OPRT headscratcher How does"
X Link 2025-10-15T18:46Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CedarStResearch Any thoughts on the brokers today"
X Link 2025-10-16T20:47Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BETR Strong bid today. Maybe down tmw but from $50/share at last weeks post to now $80. The thesis depends on mortgage rates superior AI product allowing software sales to partners and the history of Better. So potential for explosive earnings growth explains the move. An absolute tour de force by @vishalgarg1_0 Post capitulation of the meme crew was lucky timing too. $BETR is a product story. Superior data use and cost advantages. Selling mortgages And software. TAM for partnerships is large. And mortgage demand is highly elastic wrt rates. An absolute tour de force by @vishalgarg1_0 Post"
X Link 2025-10-20T16:24Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CedarStResearch After the Western Alliance and Zions Bank loan losses Vishal tweeted about Tinman's ability to review bank loan applications. I bet very few people are underwriting use cases beyond mortgage right now"
X Link 2025-10-20T19:02Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@CedarStResearch Hmm $CVNA"
X Link 2025-10-22T22:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"GoS somewhat offset by higher NII from late-in-Q1 loan activity which didnt run through all of Q1 so $9-$11 RR EPS untilsomething big. EPS ofc can be volatile (iykyk). Rick seemed to imply SBA could return to prior levels in [--] mos () post govt shutdown"
X Link 2025-10-29T15:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Insured small biz program has $10m closed already. Did I hear that right The deal was signed Sept [--] so they did $10m in the first month. The program targets a max of $25m per month. Solid. Wish they said more"
X Link 2025-10-29T15:28Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@boujee_banker In a year with flat economy and no major asset quality issues. 10% under [---]. 55% 100-125. 25% 125-150. 10% higher. Depends mostly on SBA and loan buys. Sorry no single number"
X Link 2025-10-29T16:20Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"Reports of dozens dead in Jamaica and elsewhere from Hurricane Melissa is terrible. Will likely rise. But dozens is also shocking compared to the over [----] killed during Hurricane Katrina"
X Link 2025-10-30T13:19Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$RYAN Q3 15% OG is fantastic in this environment. When Pat bought near the end of the quarter at 30% below recent high you Had to at least dip your toe in. @CedarStResearch @SayNoToTrading Kinsale saying property rate softening was slowing meaningfully was pretty interesting. Havent seen Ryan at a multiple this low in a while. Plus the purchase by Pat at [--]. @CedarStResearch @SayNoToTrading Kinsale saying property rate softening was slowing meaningfully was pretty interesting. Havent seen Ryan at a multiple this low in a while. Plus the purchase by Pat at 51"
X Link 2025-10-30T20:36Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@vishalgarg1_0 Interesting use of "banking system" here for TAM. $BETR could succeed as a mortgage technology-only company. It can be a household name if it can promptly deploy Tinman beyond mortgage"
X Link 2025-10-31T12:59Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$PLTR Alex Karp attacking short sellers and Michael Burry is a bit much. He knows stock prices can get ahead of fundamentals. Plus:"
X Link 2025-11-05T01:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CedarStResearch Also I swear bowls are shallower than last year"
X Link 2025-11-05T14:27Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@CedarStResearch Wide range of management talent in that group. Dont forget $RYAN possibly best run of all. Some higher multiple names need rate to come back next year to justify a higher multiple. BRO went nowhere from 2006-2013"
X Link 2025-11-05T20:39Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BETR Part of current pricing is investors thinking mortgage rates wont go low enough for buy and refi to boom. But addressing/subsidizing the home affordability crisis is such a bipartisan issue that being right on rates matters less than usual. GSE Recap/Release [---] by @RuleofLawGuy1 https://t.co/giMVpSz36q $fnma $fmcc https://t.co/JZ56tUHhXR GSE Recap/Release [---] by @RuleofLawGuy1 https://t.co/giMVpSz36q $fnma $fmcc https://t.co/JZ56tUHhXR"
X Link 2025-11-13T18:05Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Its pretty obvious there are Bitcoin holders moving to or at least diversifying into Zcash. Not my main focus (companies) but been interesting to watch the development the last month. $BTC $ZEC"
X Link 2025-11-14T01:11Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$BETR advancing our evolution into an AI-powered mortgage software provider. So increasingly not a lender. So software margins. Therefore a software multiple. With so many companies now offering bank-like products there are more partnership opportunities than ever. This morning @vishalgarg1_0 hosted our Q3 [----] call and shared moreon the execution of our three major strategic partnerships in Q3 2025; advancing our evolution into an AI-powered mortgage software provider. https://t.co/wKmHdrKhd6s funded loan volume grew 17% year over year This morning @vishalgarg1_0 hosted our Q3 [----] call and"
X Link 2025-11-14T15:56Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$BETR @tinmanAI https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/national-trust-charters-fintech-cypto-b3d3e443st=t7ji1B&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/national-trust-charters-fintech-cypto-b3d3e443st=t7ji1B&reflink=article_copyURL_share"
X Link 2025-11-14T15:58Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@0xMert_ If this keeps up people will start forecasting $ZEC $BTC price Parity not just 10-20% of BTC"
X Link 2025-11-14T19:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@tinmanAI The reiteration is interesting. Only [--] views after [--] minutes is hilarious. That may change in a big way. $BETR"
X Link 2025-11-17T15:05Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$BETR Tinman AI math (per Q1Q2 results and CEO on Q3 call) Just [--] Partner w/ 50m customers x 0.12% penetration x $6172 contribution Profit per loan = $93m contribution Profit per QUARTER Plus D2C rev less fixed expense May ramp to this in Q2 [----] breakeven Software co"
X Link 2025-11-18T15:44Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@CedarStResearch The market is pricing Optimus at $TSLA. For now its waiting - for breakeven maybe - to price Tinman at $BETR"
X Link 2025-11-18T17:11Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Assume $BETR turns off D2C runs Tinman with only 50m partner customers gets 15x fwd PE. Assume corporate cost is a nauseating $200m. You need 2/3 of average penetration (0.12%) to reach $44/sh. $BETR Tinman AI math (per Q1Q2 results and CEO on Q3 call) Just [--] Partner w/ 50m customers x 0.12% penetration x $6172 contribution Profit per loan = $93m contribution Profit per QUARTER Plus D2C rev less fixed expense May ramp to this in Q2 [----] breakeven Software co $BETR Tinman AI math (per Q1Q2 results and CEO on Q3 call) Just [--] Partner w/ 50m customers x 0.12% penetration x $6172 contribution"
X Link 2025-11-21T16:38Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"guys where did I say it was cheap All I can guarantee is that the average person who bought bc an influencer told them to will lose money. $BETR"
X Link 2025-11-21T17:54Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@WillManidis So nothing from the balance sheet. lol"
X Link 2025-11-25T12:40Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Appaloosa/Tepper's [--] F esp interesting this time: Bought both $ZION and $WAL right before bad loan news. Tiny amounts tho. Bad news hits us all. New allocs to reg'l banks is notable though. Incl $TFC $KEY $CFG Also $120m new position in $FI which is down 50% since 9/30"
X Link 2025-11-25T14:42Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@CedarStResearch @danielsethlewis Can AIG ramp ROE to CB levels Clearly some progress but looking at core roe and bv it doesn't seem that cheap"
X Link 2025-12-05T14:37Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@mariojr66 @CedarStResearch CAC was heavily marketed. They did not get a deal and the market agrees"
X Link 2025-12-12T14:22Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@elerianm Oh yes sign me up for all these levered middle market shitcos who arent public for a reason. Happy to pay 4.00% for the privilege instead of 0.03% for $VOO $APO"
X Link 2025-12-12T15:49Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@vishalgarg1_0 Partnerships seem slow to start. Selling your UK bank asap Odd to see HFI increase so much not profitable or barely. Ppl are looking for execution and focus"
X Link 2025-12-15T14:18Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"Re. Ukraine deal with Russia Europeans have two choices: 1) less welfare but keep speaking your mother tongue 2) less welfare but start speaking Russian $PLTR $LMT $BA $NOC $RTX"
X Link 2025-12-17T16:17Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"$FIGR Is there a more interesting name in financials than Figure Related is title insurance cooked Like some other pilots in industry Figure's underwriting process does not require title insurance"
X Link 2025-12-18T14:26Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"An $ORCL share sale to delever would improve $PSKY 's bid/Larry Ellison guarantee for $WBD $NFLX"
X Link 2025-12-18T15:13Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@Mabiverse123 @CedarStResearch Think pols increasingly see Title as a scam and home affordability is bipartisan $FIGR is abt to do a secondary that results in a slug of common being on chain. Good argument it should trade at premium vs Nasdaq Worth listening to Cagney & Co - the real deal. And the margins"
X Link 2025-12-18T15:20Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@a16z Most people dont willingly vaporize their social capital like thatbut itd be an interesting experiment"
X Link 2025-12-18T19:12Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"@CedarStResearch @vishalgarg1_0 A marketing point - Bet few trust AI-powered if youre not telling them $ savings REGARDLESS of rate environment They cant calc savings on [--] bps and dgaf about the fed funds rate but they get No title insurance required Save $2000 Damn now youre a mainstreet hero"
X Link 2025-12-20T12:49Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$BETR hired a CFO. More interestingly the CEO set up a 10b-5 plan to BUY up to $5m shares. https://www.bamsec.com/filing/162828025058400cik=1835856 https://www.bamsec.com/filing/162828025058400cik=1835856"
X Link 2025-12-22T14:37Z [---] followers, [----] engagements

"@CedarStResearch Definitely. An interesting metric on the evolving short vs. ATM/growth interplay: Days to cover has been ticking higher amid falling volume since the meme days. $BETR https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/betr/short-interest https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/betr/short-interest"
X Link 2025-12-22T20:31Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@vishalgarg1_0 Hm. So if a fast growing breakeven $BETR could replace $Z Zillows mortgage operation saving it $100m pre taxand Zillow valued that at 13x thats $72/sh at 18m fd shout"
X Link 2025-12-26T01:21Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@vishal_better Is Betters partner with 50m users marketing this offer"
X Link 2025-12-31T14:26Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$BETR board member Bhaskar appointed in August bought [----] shares at $33.94 Dec [--]. Pocket change but timing post-meme is interesting. WSJ article today on Hunterbrook HF led me to their [----] report on $UWMC. Post-read you'll root against them. https://hntrbrk.com/uwm/ https://hntrbrk.com/uwm/"
X Link 2026-01-05T18:02Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"As I've said $FIGR is the most interesting name in Financials & Market Structure. Start here if you're behind. Building on my earlier post about why a token has value (yield utility and governance) - I want to talk about RWAs on public blockchains. Warning: many of you are going to hate what I have to say here. People get excited when they see TradFi players making moves toward Building on my earlier post about why a token has value (yield utility and governance) - I want to talk about RWAs on public blockchains. Warning: many of you are going to hate what I have to say here. People get"
X Link 2026-01-06T18:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@kejca Doesnt look great or feel right $BRK"
X Link 2026-01-07T00:41Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

"@danielsethlewis @Kalshi How to build a low/no trust society"
X Link 2026-01-07T16:42Z [---] followers, [--] engagements

"$BETR As CEO and Leah tease a near term announcement most important is whether they raised equity on the success or if they no longer need it which would suspend the current botched ATM. My bias: constructive for time horizons [--] year"
X Link 2026-01-07T22:22Z [---] followers, [---] engagements

Limited data mode. Full metrics available with subscription: lunarcrush.com/pricing

@HettyGreen2020
/creator/twitter::HettyGreen2020